La Reunion/ Mauritius/ Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone 06S BEJISA 032100Z nr 24.2S 54.9E, moving SW at 5 knots (JTWC) – 030114 2310z

Tropical Cyclone Bejisa

 

= Tropical Storm strength (below Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 

(Please note time stamps on images/text)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

 

(Image: meteo.fr) La Reunion Radar

 

ZCZC 171
WTIO30 FMEE 031757
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/4/20132014
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (BEJISA)
2.A POSITION 2014/01/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 410 SW: 370 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/04 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2014/01/04 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/01/05 06 UTC: 28.5 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2014/01/05 18 UTC: 31.9 S / 47.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2014/01/06 06 UTC: 34.4 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2014/01/06 18 UTC: 36.2 S / 44.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.5
UNDER THE STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT AND OVER MARGINAL AND LOWERING OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT (SST BETWEEN 26.0 DG AND 26.5 DG).
BEJISA IS NOW TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PR
ESSURES IN THE LOW AND MID LAYERS. IT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE CLEARLY ON SUNDAY.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM COULD KEEP ON UNDERGOING THE WESTERLY TO NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER L
EVEL WIND-SHEAR ALOFT OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. THIS WIND-SHEAR WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT DUE THE CHANGE OF DIRECTION OF THE TRACK.
ON SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM MAY STAY LOCATED TEMPORARILY UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AND
THEN THE WEAKENING MAY BE LESS RAPID. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD BE AGAIN MORE RAPID ON SUNDAY WITH TH
E STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION FROM SUNDAY AND FILL UP MONDAY OR TUESDAY FAR AW
AY IN THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.
NNNN

Prvisions pour La Runion du Vendredi 03/01/14 17 h, valable pour la nuit prochaine et la journe du Samedi 04/01/14

 

Situation gnrale:

La Runion est en Phase de Sauvegarde.
Le flux s’oriente au secteur Nord-Ouest en faiblissant progressivement.
Pour information: La forte tempte tropicale BEJISA se situait 16 heures 240 km au secteur Sud de La Runion.

 

Prvisions pour la nuit prochaine:

La situation mtorologique se calme progressivement. Le ciel sera moins nuageux et les prcipitations vont continuer s’attnuer. Elles devraient se limiter l’ouest d’une ligne situe de St Joseph Ste Suzanne au cours de la nuit prochaine.

Le vent continue de faiblir. Il reste toutefois modr sur les rgion Est et Sud-Ouest de l’le avec des rafales de l’ordre de 60 km/h environ. Il souffle aussi sur St Denis et sur Petite Ile.

Prvisions pour le Samedi 04/01/14

Quelques averses sont encore attendues au lever du jour de St Gilles Ste Marie puis la situation s’arrange sur l’ensemble du dpartement. Les claircies sont plus gnreuses et les priodes ensoleilles plus nombreuses au cours de la matine, aussi bien sur les plaines, dans les cirques que sur les plages.

Au cours de l’aprs-midi, la grisaille s’installe sur le relief avec des prcipitations localement modres au sud d’une ligne allant de St Benoit St Leu. Le long du littoral, alternance d’claircies et de passages nuageux.

Le vent souffle du Nord-Ouest avec des rafales atteignant 50 55 km/h de La Possession Ste Suzanne et de Petite Ile Grand Bois. Ailleurs, les brises prdominent.

La mer est agite forte. Une houle de Sud-Sud-Ouest de 2m50 3m gnre par la Forte Tempte Tropicale BEJISA dferle sur les ctes Ouest et Sud de la Runion. Elle faiblit en fin de journe.

La plus grande prudence est recommande sur le littoral Ouest et Sud en raison de la houle.

 

Horaires des mares La Pointe des Galets le Samedi 04/01/14:

Basse : 09:31 et 21:58

Haute : 03:38 et 15:34

Cyclone Warning Bulletin Mauritius (English Version)

 

Thu, Jan 2, 2014

 

NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.
NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

 

ELEVENTH AND LAST CYCLONE BULLETIN ISSUED AT 20H00 ON THURSDAY 02
JANUARY 2014.

 

At 19h00 cyclone BEJISA was located near latitude 21.6 degrees south and longitude 55.0 degrees
east that is at about 275 km to the west south west of Le Morne. it is moving in a general south
easterly direction at about 14 km/h to eventually recurve towards the south.
On this trajectory BEJISA has started to move away from the region and hence no cyclonic conditions may occur over Mauritus.

 

NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

 

The showery weather will persist and will cause accumulation of water in some places. The
moisture in the lower atmosphere will maintain thick fog during the night and early morning.
The road users and the public at large are advised to be very cautious.
Wind will blow from the Northern sector with gusts of the order of 70 to 80 km/h in exposed places.
Sea will remain high with heavy swells and risks of beach inundation mainly to the Northern,
Western and Southern sectors. Ventures at sea are strictly forbidden.

 

NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.
NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0614.gif

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/06S_031730sair.jpg

 

WTXS32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
031800Z — NEAR 24.0S 55.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 220 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 55.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 24.7S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 26.2S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 28.2S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z — 30.2S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z — 34.0S 44.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 54.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING, YET TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031817Z METOP-A 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
ALSO WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR
ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS THE TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS
TC 06S ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) AND
INCREASING VWS. FURTHERMORE, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF COLDER SST
(LESS THAN 25 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND STRONGER VWS, WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN TC BEJISA. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BETWEEN
TAU 48 AND TAU 72. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z.//
NNNN

 

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 3 Jan, 2014 6:00 GMT

 

Tropical Cyclone BEJISA (06S) currently located near 23.1 S 55.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Reunion
probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently

 

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Storm Tracker Map

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

METAREA7 & 8S / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 1757

 

WTIO22 FMEE 031757
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/01/2014
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/01/2014 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (BEJISA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING
LOCALLY UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/01/04 AT 06 UTC:
24.8 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2014/01/04 AT 18 UTC:
26.2 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

Australia: Tropical Cyclone 05S Christine (=CAT1 Hurricane SS) 302100Z nr 21.6S 117.2E, moving SW at 10 knots (JTWC) – 311213 1035z

Tropical Cyclone 05S Christine (JTWC)

= CAT1 strength (Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Severe Tropical Cyclone (Intensity Category 1) Christine BOM

A Cyclone WARNING is current for inland parts of the Pilbara including
Paraburdoo, Tom Price and Newman extending into central WA to include Three
Rivers, Wiluna and Leinster.

National Radar image

National Radar image (Image: BOM)
CLICK IMAGE FOR RADAR ANIMATION

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Tropical Cyclone Christine

Issued at 2:33 pm WST Tuesday 31 December 2013. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 50.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Christine has weakened to a Category 1 Cyclone as it moves over southern parts of the Pilbara and into the northeast Gascoyne. Christine has started moving south southeast and is expected to accelerate towards the southeast tonight.

DAMAGING winds with gusts up to 120 kilometres per hour are possible near the cyclone centre.

GALES with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are occurring in southern parts of the Pilbara and should extend into the eastern Gascoyne, far western Interior and the far northern Goldfields this afternoon and evening before the cyclone weakens overnight.

After the system weakens below tropical cyclone intensity overnight, severe winds are likely to continue on the northeastern side of the system during Wednesday as it moves quickly across southeastern WA.

Heavy rainfall is possible near the cyclone track and Flood Warnings have been issued for the Pilbara.
DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in or near Tom Price and Paraburdoo. You need to immediately head to shelter and stay indoors away from doors and windows.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Newman and inland to the Collier Ranges and Three Rivers including Kumarina and east to Granite Peak and southwest to Wiluna, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People between De Grey and Mardie including Marble Bar, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Karratha, Dampier and Pannawonica are advised that the threat of strong winds is no longer expected. People still need to take caution when heading outside as there may still be fallen debris.

People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.dfes.wa.gov.au

Name:Tropical Cyclone Christine

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 pm December 31 1 23.5S 117.4E 35
+6hr 8 pm December 31 1 24.7S 118.5E 60
+12hr 2 am January 1 1 25.9S 119.8E 80
+18hr 8 am January 1 tropical low 27.3S 121.6E 105
+24hr 2 pm January 1 tropical low 28.8S 123.5E 130
+36hr 2 am January 2 tropical low 30.3S 128.5E 165
+48hr 2 pm January 2 tropical low 32.1S 134.1E 200
+60hr 2 am January 3 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+72hr 2 pm January 3 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Tuesday

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning CentreMedia: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 50
Issued at 2:33 pm WST on Tuesday 31 December 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for inland parts of the Pilbara including
Paraburdoo, Tom Price and Newman extending into central WA to include Three
Rivers, Wiluna and Leinster.

At 2:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Christine, Category 1, was estimated to be
45 kilometres southwest of Paraburdoo and
315 kilometres south of Karratha and
moving south southeast at 26 kilometres per hour.

Christine has weakened to a Category 1 Cyclone as it moves over southern parts
of the Pilbara and into the northeast Gascoyne. Christine has started moving
south southeast and is expected to accelerate towards the southeast tonight.

DAMAGING winds with gusts up to 120 kilometres per hour are possible near the
cyclone centre.

GALES with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are occurring in southern
parts of the Pilbara and should extend into the eastern Gascoyne, far western
Interior and the far northern Goldfields this afternoon and evening before the
cyclone weakens overnight.

After the system weakens below tropical cyclone intensity overnight, severe
winds are likely to continue on the northeastern side of the system during
Wednesday as it moves quickly across southeastern WA.

Heavy rainfall is possible near the cyclone track and Flood Warnings have been
issued for the Pilbara.

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in or near Tom Price and Paraburdoo. You need to immediately
head to shelter and stay indoors away from doors and windows.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Newman and inland to the Collier Ranges and Three
Rivers including Kumarina and east to Granite Peak and southwest to Wiluna,
need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including
first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People between De Grey and Mardie including Marble Bar,
Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson,
Karratha, Dampier and Pannawonica are advised that the threat of strong winds
is no longer expected. People still need to take caution when heading outside
as there may still be fallen debris.

People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation
call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.dfes.wa.gov.au

Details of the Tropical Cyclone Christine at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near…… 23.5 degrees South 117.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy…….. within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement………. towards the south southeast at 26 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre… 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category…….. 1
.Central pressure……… 983 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Tuesday 31 December.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

Guides and checklists for cyclone safety and preparedness.
Check your local emergency agencies for more information.

WA: DFES

Australian Red Cross

Twitter @RedCrossAU

redcross.org.au

Call theRed Cross office in your state and ask for the emergency services department.

You can also email them.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0514.gif

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/05S_301132sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 302100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) FINAL WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) FINAL WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301800Z — NEAR 21.1S 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 215 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 117.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 23.2S 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z — 25.5S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 27.9S 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 117.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND AS TC 05S MOVES OVER
LAND; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A 20-NM DIAMETER EYE. RADAR
IMAGERY FROM DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA SHOWS THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL NEAR
301400Z AND TRACKED OVER ROEBOURNE AIRPORT, WHICH REPORTED MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE WINDS OF 71 KNOTS GUSTING TO 93 KNOTS WITH A
MINIMUM SLP OF 958 MB. TC CHRISTINE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND RAPIDLY ERODE THEN DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO
THE TIGHT GROUPING OF DYNAMIC MODELS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 30 Dec, 2013 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Cyclone CHRISTINE (05S) currently located near 21.1 S 117.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Pannawonica (21.8 S, 116.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% currently
Tom Price (22.8 S, 117.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME

NONE

Our change in the weather and how the jet stream is driving it

Official blog of the Met Office news team

After a quiet spell of weather courtesy of a slow moving area of high pressure, we are now entering an unsettled period as a series of Atlantic depressions are expected to pass close to the northwest of Britain during the next week.

High pressure has now moved away and is settled over Europe and a powerful jet stream is developing over the Atlantic which will be the main driving force behind this spell of unsettled weather.

What is the jet stream?

The jet stream is a band of fast moving westerly winds high up in the atmosphere which circle around the pole in the northern hemisphere. It can feature winds of up to 200 knots (230 mph) or more, and these winds tend to guide wet and windy weather systems which come in off the Atlantic.

The jet moves around a fair bit and its position can have a big…

View original post 406 more words

Antarctica: Australasian Antarctic Expedition ship rescue set to begin, 74 aboard – Updated 010114 2230z

Sailing route icebreaker MV Akademik Shokalskiy (Image: pogodawpolsce.bloog.pl)

Related:

In the Home of the Blizzard with the AAE

(Video credit: Intrepid Science)

Published on Dec 25, 2013

A short tour of the outside of our expedition vessel, the MV Akademik Shokalskiy, during todays blizzard. The good news is the atmospheric pressure is rising, suggesting the worst of the conditions are behind us. Meanwhile, the science program continues.

An Update on the Australasian Antarctic Expedition (Boxing Day 2013)

(Video credit: Intrepid Science)

Published on Dec 25, 2013

A short movie showing the blizzard conditions were currently experiencing. On Christmas Eve we realised we could not get through the sea ice, in spite of being just 2 nautical miles from open water. We hoped the conditions would change but several low pressure systems have passed over us during the last few days and these have held the ice fast. The weather is predicted to improve significantly tomorrow. We just wanted to let all our family and friends know there is no risk to the vessel and everyone is well.

You can learn more about the Australasian Antarctic Expedition at http://www.spiritofmawson.com. For regular updates we will be posting details on Twitter @profchristurney, +Intrepid Science at Google+, and the Guardian Antarctica Live website. The BBC World Service are also embedded in the team and broadcasting a weekly programme on the expedition (including updates on our work) on Discovery. We are using the Inmarsat satellite system to provide live communications in the field.

AAE Update 27 December

(Video credit: Intrepid Science)

Published on Dec 26, 2013

Its good to be out of the blizzard! Yesterdays low pressure system has passed and the winds have dropped. Weve just heard the Chinese icebreaker is 20 kilometres away but the bad news is this is also the distance to the sea ice edge; a lot further than when we were trapped. If you look carefully over my left shoulder you might be able to see water sky; the dark clouds reflecting the open water on their underside. This is the most likely route the ice breakers will take to reach us.

Arrival of the Chinese icebreaker Snow Dragon

(Video credit: Intrepid Science)

Published on Dec 27, 2013

The Chinese icebreaker Snow Dragon (Xue Long) has arrived on the horizon. If the vessel continues progressing at 2 knots, it should be alongside the Shokalskiy in 2-3 hours. There are a lot of happy faces on board!

Preparing the helipad for the AAE evacuation

(Video credit: Intrepid Science)

Published on Dec 31, 2013

We now know the Australian icebreaker Aurora australis cannot break through to us so a helicopter evacuation seems the most likely. Led by expeditioner Ben Maddison and in good voice, the team pack down the snow and ice next to the Shokalskiy in preparation for a good weather window. Fingers crossed!

Happy New Year from the AAE


(Video credit: Intrepid Science)

Streamed live on Dec 31, 2013

Happy New Year everyone from the Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2014!

Cameroon: Christmas attack on LGBT rights/AIDS office

76 CRIMES

Under threat, landlord tells LGBT-friendly AIDS fighters to leave

Three days before Christmas, anti-gay vandals destroyed the office of CAMEF, an organization that fights for human rights and against AIDS among LGBT people and sex workers in Limbe in coastal Cameroon.

Leaders of CAMEF (Cameroon Association for Empowerment Outreach Programs) said they were “still in shock’ after finding the office burglarized by anti-LGBT vandals who left behind threatening messages stating “Go away, pede [fag], go away” and “Another warning: Go away”:

Our office door was pushed through by the persons that have been threatening us with … hateful signs and messages. They broke the main door’s handle and pushed it through.

The computer of CAMEF’s secretary was thrown on the floor. A digital camera and the laptop computers of the executive director and the sexual health and prevention coordinator were stolen. Files and documents were strewn on the floor. Tables…

View original post 513 more words

Festive greetings from Goaty (Goaty’s News) – 251213 1542z

Greetings at this festive time….

File:Robin in the snow 3 (4250400943).jpg

(Photo: wikimedia/Uploaded by Magnus Manske) DON’T FORGET TO FEED THE BIRDS!

Taking this opportunity to wish my followers here on WordPress (174), on Facebook (121) and Twitter (827) a very happy festive holiday and a wonderful New Year.

Goaty’s News is non-commercial, makes no profit and exists only to provide a service.

Please note that due to a combination of off-line commitments and times of poor health I cannot always provide the service to you I would wish. However, at such times do remember that you can still view the RSS feeds at the left and right of the page.

Also, Goaty’s News on Twitter & Facebook is always more up to date than WordPress

I don’t say it often enough, but thank you so much for following, reblogging & retweeting Goaty’s News. I do hope it has been some help to you.

Goaty’s News can be contacted by email at:
goatysnews@yandex.com

Goaty

PS: Please remember all volunteers (RNLI Lifeboats, Coastguard, Mountain Rescue, Lowland Rescue, Search & Rescue and others) and the Emergency Services out in cold, often horrendous, weather whilst many of us enjoy the comforts of home. Also, do remember those who are homeless at this time.

RODRIGUES/ Mauritius/ LaRéunion: Tropical Cyclone/Storm Amara 222100Z nr 22.8S 68.1E, moving ESE at 6 knots (JTWC) – 221213 2250z

MODERATE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM/

Tropical Cyclone (02) Amara

 

= Tropical Storm (below Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 

MASCARENES ISLANDSMauritius, Runion and Rodrigues BEWARE!

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

 

ZCZC 096
WTIO30 FMEE 221911
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/2/20132014
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (AMARA)
2.A POSITION 2013/12/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6 S / 67.7 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :52 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SW: 370 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 120
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/12/23 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 68.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2013/12/23 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2013/12/24 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
48H: 2013/12/24 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
60H: 2013/12/25 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
72H: 2013/12/25 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/12/26 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 62.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
120H: 2013/12/27 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 60.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.5-
THE SYSTEM IS COMPLETELY DESTRUCTURED WITH THE CENTER TOTALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
DEEP CONVECTION. 1725Z ASCAT PATH CONFIRMS THIS INTENSITY AND SHOWS STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHER
N PART OF THE SYSTEM.
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AMARA SHOULD KEEP A SOUTH-EASTWARD OR EASTWARD TRACK IN RELATIONSHIP WIT
H A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING RAPIDLY UNDERGOING THE STRONG WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICA
L WIND-SHEAR.
FROM TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, THE WEAKENED SYSTEM SHOULD GO BACK WESTWARD WITH THE STEERING FLOW OF T
HE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDING SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS.
AS BRUCE SHOULD BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF AMARA AT THIS TIME, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINT
Y IN THE TIMING OF THIS RECURVING SCENARIO.
NNNN

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0314.gif

(Image: JTWC) TC Warning Graphic (Click image for source)

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03S_200530sams.jpg

(Image: JTWC) IR Satellite Imagery (Click image for source)

WTXS31 PGTW 222100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
221800Z — NEAR 22.8S 68.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 68.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 22.9S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 02 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z — 22.8S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 02 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 22.6S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 68.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 619 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO DEVOLVE AND THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM HAS SHEARED AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST BY OVER
50 NM. A 221513Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC HAS STARTED
TO ELONGATE AND THE CONVECTION HAS CONSIDERABLY SHALLOWED. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF
THE LLCC AND SOME AMBIGUITY IN THE IR ANIMATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS STRONG (30+ KNOTS)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSETTING ANY POSITIVE
EFFECTS OF SOME EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH AND WILL ACT TO SLOW TC
03S, LEADING TO QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
INCREASING VWS AND COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RAPIDLY DECAY THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, DISSIPATING
TC AMARA BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER
DISSIPATION, THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF TC 03S WILL TRACK BACK TO THE WEST UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL HIGH, ALTHOUGH, AT A VERY WEAKENED STATE.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE VARIATION IN THE EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND
232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

 

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 21 Dec, 2013 6:00 GMT

(No update for 22 Dec 2013)

 

 

 

Very Intense TC AMARA (03S) currently located near 20.1 S 64.2 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently

 

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Storm Tracker Map

TSR Storm Tracker Map

 

MARITIME

 

ZCZC 829
WTIO20 FMEE 220611
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/12/2013
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 22/12/2013 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (AMARA) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 66.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,
EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2013/12/22 AT 18 UTC:
22.2 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2013/12/23 AT 06 UTC:
22.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=
NNNN

SUNDAY-LUNCHTIME STROLL FOR JENNIFER…IN CHEST-HIGH SEAS, HALF-A-MILE OFFSHORE

Penarth Daily News

As the rest of Penarth was settling down for Sunday lunch today, Penarth lifeboat member Jennifer Payne (above) was wading 200 yards through cold chest-high seas on the treacherous Cefn-y-Wrach mudbank almost half a mile  off Penarth Head pulling a warp across to a disabled fishing boat, the “Dragonfly”.

Penarth’s Atlantic 85 lifeboat  the “Maureen Lilian”  had been  launched after coastguards were notified that the 18 foot fishing boat Dragonfly – with two people aboard – had suffered double-engine failure shortly after setting out into the Bristol Channel from the locks at Cardiff Barrage.

.   . To stop her drifting, Dragonfly’s crew had anchored and radioed for assistance – but there were no other boats in the vicinity to help. Coastguards asked for Penarth lifeboat to be launched.

The water was too shallow for the lifeboat to get close enough to effect a rescue  – so a hike through…

View original post 204 more words

Indian Ocean/ Rodrigues/ Mauritius: Tropical Depression 2 151800Z nr 14.0S 76.3E, moving W at 9 knots (RSMC La Reunion) – 151213 2010z

PLEASE SEE UPDATE >>>>>>>

RODRIGUES (Mauritius) Intense Tropical Cyclone Amara 200900Z nr 18.5S 65.0E, moving WSW at 6 knots (JTWC) 2012131625z

Brazil: Rio de Janeiro state floods – 3 killed, 415 homes destroyed and more than 2,000 displaced – 131213 1510z

At least three people were killed and more than 2,000 displaced when heavy rainfall caused flooding this week in the coastal state of Rio de Janeiro, officials said Thursday.

The downpour began Wednesday and continued overnight, dumping more rain in 10 hours in parts of the state than was expected for the entire month of December.

Local media were full of photographs of streets turned into rivers, commuters seeking refuge on top of buses and reports of looting as residents of the Baixada Flumeninse region fled their homes.

Authorities said they had discovered at least three bodies so far, but the death count could rise. “There’s nothing I can do. I’ll just have to buy everything all over again,” said Jorge Luiz Costa, 54, who lost most of the contents of his home and is spending his nights elsewhere, according to the local newspaper O Globo.”We’re going to suffer now from a lack of water here, too, since they’re taking the tank away for cleaning.”

A river of brown sludge surrounded Rio’s iconic Maracana stadium, set to host the 2014 soccer World Cup final in July. Officials asked residents to stay home and announced the deployment of federal security backup for the local police.

Baixada Fluminense, the most seriously affected region, sits between the Atlantic Ocean and the mountains of Rio de Janeiro. Prone to flooding, much of the area was settled by low-income families with little public oversight.

Authorities said 415 homes were destroyed and 2,289 people displaced this week in Baixada Fluminense. The flooding also forced 227 people from their homes in the city of Rio de Janeiro, to the south. December and January are typically the rainy months in the state, and flooding has continued to bring parts of the region to its knees since 2011, when at least 900 people were killed. In January 2012, flooding killed at least 13 people in the city of Sapucaia, in the interior of Rio de Janeiro.
Friday, 13 December, 2013 at 04:25 (04:25 AM) UTC RSOE

Other Reports

world

Rio Floods: Heavy Rain Causes Chaos In Brazil

12/11/13 10:04 PM ET EST AP

City hall employees work in a flooded street of a suburb in Rio de Janeiro on December 11, 2013. (VANDERLEI ALMEIDA/AFP/Getty Images via huffingtonpost)

“RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) – Torrential rains caused chaos and at least two deaths in Rio de Janeiro on Wednesday. Traffic was snarled, airports temporarily closed and commuter trains halted after flood waters engulfed many parts of the city.

Firefighters said two bodies were found in a river on the poor northern outskirts of Rio.

The federal government said it would send in police to counter some looting that was reported, and the Rio state government asked for assistance in providing water, food and cots for some 2,000 families that were driven from their homes by flooding.

Some people took to the streets in jet skis to rescue neighbors from homes surrounded by water. Commuters were seen standing atop buses as water rose to the windows. Sirens warning citizens to be alert for mudslides rang in more than 40 poorer neighborhoods.

Mayor Eduardo Paes asked people to stay indoors and avoid the streets.

Officials said one western Rio neighborhood received 2.5 inches (63 millimeters) of rain in just one hour early Wednesday. Other areas saw nearly 5 inches (124 millimeters) fall since midnight. Rains lessened by early afternoon, but a steady drizzle still fell over most of the city.” – huffingtonpost

Videos

Rio de Janeiro hit by floods


(Video credit: CNNInternational)

Published on Dec 12, 2013

Heavy rains flood much of Rio de Janeiro, paralyzing Brazil’s second largest

city.

Rio de Janeiro rains kill three as thousands are evacuated


(Video credit: teleSURenglish tv)

Published on Dec 12, 2013

Heavy rains causing flooding, pipeline ruptures, and road damage in southeastern Brazil’s Rio de Janeiro state has taken the lives of three residents and forced thousands to evacuate their homes. teleSUR More here

Syria/Lebanon: 9 more Syrian children die from cold as Storm Alexa starts predicted worst winter for many years – 131213 1330z

Thousands of Syrian refugees are facing freezing temperatures and difficult weather conditions as snowstorms have hit areas where they’ve set up camps.

Families have been fleeing their homes in Syria because of fighting between the President Bashar al-Assad’s forces and rebel groups who want him out.

Many of them set up makeshift homes near the border with Lebanon. Over the past week the weather has become harsh with temperatures dropping so low icicles have formed on the huts.
Friday, 13 December, 2013 at 04:57 (04:57 AM) UTC RSOE

Other Reports

worldbulletin.net:

9 more Syrian children die from cold

Thousands face imminent death due to lack of access to basic necessities during the civil war.

9 more Syrian children die from cold / PHOTO

(Image: worldbulletin.net)

World Bulletin / News Desk

“Nine more children including 4 newborn babies died from the cold, the Syrian Network for Human Rights announced Friday.

Doctors in the region warnthatworsening weatherconditionscouldlead to more deaths as the lack of access to basic necessities has left thousands facing imminent death. The Syrian oppositionissued an urgent call for help to international institutions.

The Middle Eastern nation braves the wintry cold for athird time during the civil war which began in March 2011.

More than 100,000people havebeenkilled in themore than three-year oldconflict inSyriaand overtwo millionSyriansare now registered as refugees in neighboring countries, Turkey. Lebanon and Iraq,according to the UN.” – worldbulletin.net

(The following images: worldbulletin.net)

United Nations voices concern for refugees caught in winter storm in Lebanon


(Video credit: Amanda Merrill)

Published on Dec 12, 2013

It is called Alexa a storm sweeping across Syria and Lebanon bringing in high winds and freezing temperatures. It is the start of what is predicted to be the worst winter for many years.

The United Nations said it is “extremely concerned” for the plight of the 2.2 million refugees living outside Syria and the millions more displaced inside the country.

In Lebanon humanitarian groups are struggling to meet overwhelming needs.

Syrian refugee Jined Al-Hussein explained his plight. “It is cold in the rain and we have nothing. Hunger and cold weather and there is nothing. I have been here for a week.”

Abdel-Karim Alibrahim is from Aleppo and such are the conditions he says he would prefer to return there.

“The tents blew about letting the rain and snow come in on the little children. We would have preferred to stay in Syria with the shelling.”

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees is prioritising aid to refugees at high altitude where the snow is at its worst and said as long as people are in tents there is only so much they can do.

Related:

Cold Weather Camping and Hypothermia (Advice from US Scouts)

Compiled by: Chuck Bramlet, ASM Troop 323, Thunderbird District,
Grand Canyon Council, Phoenix, Az.

 


 

 

 

UK: New reports show harm to disabled and sick from ‘fit for work’ tests – 091213 1345z

“Two new reports draw attention to the damaging impact of fit for work assessments on many sick and disabled people, giving more evidence of the misery and hardship they experience, and providing further clues as to the underlying cause of the flawed process.

The People’s review of the WCA: further evidence, produced by the Spartacus network of disabled researchers and campaigners, is published today, 9 December 2013. It is also being made available through the think-tank Ekklesia and other supportive NGOs.

How Norms Become Targets: Investigating the real reason for the misery of fit for work assessments, by leading independent disability campaigner Kaliya Franklin, also part of the Spartacus network, was published on 2 December by the Centre for Welfare Reform.

Despite minor improvements in the Work Capability Assessment (WCA), politicians, doctors, other medical professionals, church leaders, journalists, disabled people and thousands of others continue to express serious disquiet over its impact on sick and disabled people, critics say.

The assessment is used to determine eligibility for Employment and Support Allowance (ESA), which provides support for people who are unable to work for health reasons, but there remains little confidence in its operation.

The People’s review of the WCA: further evidence has been written by an anonymous author determined, despite seriously failing health, to do everything she possibly can to raise awareness of the impact of the WCA on the lives of sick and disabled people.

Like the first Peoples Review, published a year ago, this new report aims to give a voice to those whose lives have been devastated by the impact of the assessment on their physical and mental health and financial security.

It shows how the WCA very often fails in its purpose to identify those who need secure financial support because they are unable to work due to an impairment or serious health condition.

The Centre for Welfare Reform paper includes whistle-blower evidence and analysis showing that despite consistent denials by ministers outcomes for sick and disabled ESA claimants are governed, to some extent at least, by a system of norms.

In practice these norms behave as quotas, ensuring that no more than a certain percentage of claimants are eligible for ESA. This cynical approach to assessing claimants for sickness benefits has its roots in Lord Freuds report ‘Reducing Dependency, Increasing Opportunity: options for the future of welfare to work’, published in 2007, and provides a distressing explanation for the experiences described in the second Peoples Review, says the Spartacus network.

In a news release, the group says: “It seems clear that without de facto quotas, explained in Kaliya Franklins report, it is much less likely that the process of being assessed for support would inflict so much suffering on so many people. Taken together, the reports add more detail to an emerging picture of the political manipulation at the heart of an assessment process that continues to cause sick and disabled people immense hardship and suffering a full five years after its introduction.”

Simon Barrow, co-director of the beliefs and values think-tank Ekklesia, says that the two reports illustrate the need for government to shift its approach and attitudes to welfare radically.

He commented: “The accumulating research evidence of the hugely damaging impact of ‘fit for work’ assessment processes on a significant number of disabled and sick people is not something a civilised government or society can ignore.

“We agree with the British Medical Association and other expert bodies and analysts that the Work Capability Assessment is not fit for purpose. Further serious questions are also being raised about intentions and actions of the Department of Work and Pensions.

“The publication of new evidence about the impact of WCA from the Spartacus network of disabled researchers and campaigners illustrates the crucial need for policy in this area to be formulated with the substantial involvement of those most directly affected.

“The case for an independent, cumulative impact assessment of welfare reform in the UK, together with a new deal for disabled and sick people based on their needs and aspirations, is now overwhelming.

“Ekklesia is delighted that this proposal will now be discussed in parliament, following huge public support for the WOW petition, and urges that this should take place in the parliamentary chamber itself, not in a Westminster annex.”

* People’s review of the WCA: further evidence – http://www.ekklesia.co.uk/node/19621

* Spartacus network – http://wearespartacus.org.uk

* ATOS and DWP stand accused over flawed ‘fit for work’ assessments – http://www.ekklesia.co.uk/node/19623

* Centre for Welfare Reform – http://www.centreforwelfarereform.org

* Urgent action: letter to MPs asking parliament to listen to disabled and sick people – http://www.ekklesia.co.uk/node/19587

[Ekk/3]” – ekklesia staff writers 9 Dec 2013

India/Bay of Bengal: Low Pressure Area MADI (RSMC New Delhi) Tropical Cyclone 120300Z nr 11.9N 81.5E, moving SW at 10 knots (JTWC) Final Warning- 121213 1102z

Tropical Cyclone Madi (JTWC)

 

 

= Tropical Storm (below Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category)

Low Pressure Area (RSMC NEW DELHI)

 

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

(Image: IMD) Chennai Doppler Radar (Click image for animation/source)

 

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 12 -12 -2013
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC.
THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
OFF TAMILNADU COAST.
BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA :-BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE CONVECTION OVER
SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA,
BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER EASTCENTRAL & SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL,
ARABIAN SEA :-NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
RIDGE LINE:-RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 14.0N OVER THE INDIAN REGION.

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0613.gif

 

 

WTIO31 PGTW 120300

 

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (MADI) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (MADI) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
120000Z NEAR 12.2N 82.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 82.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z 10.9N 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z 9.9N 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 81.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (MADI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A DEVOLVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MINIMALLY
FLARING CONVECTION WHILE STEADILY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST. A
RECENT 112354Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS WEAKENING STRUCTURE
AS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. TC 06B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STEADILY TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN, AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT,
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND LAND INTERACTION DISSIPATE THE
SYSTEM BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 12,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIA AND
FURTHER DEVOLVE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120000Z IS 13 FEET.//
NNNN

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/06B_081730sair.jpg

 

END

 

Extreme weather could become norm around Indian Ocean, say scientists http://tinyurl.com/knpzqlf

 

MARITIME

 

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0900

 

WTIN01 DEMS 120900
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 12 DECMBER 2013

PART I:-STORM WARNING (.)
DEPRESSION WEAKEN INTO WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER SW BAY OF BENGAL,AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY(.)
IT FURTHER MOVED SW-WARDS AND LIES OVER SW BAY OF
BENGAL OFF NORTH TAMILNADU COAST(.)
PART II :-(.)
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA (VIII)(.)
ARB: A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOUR
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)N OF 05 DEG N:-
I)W OF 70 DEG E:N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)E OF 70 DEG E:NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC
TO THE E OF 72 DEG E(.)
2)S OF 05 DEG N:NW-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)I)1-2 M II)0.5-1 M 2)1-2 M(.)

 

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOUR
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)N OF 05 DEG N:-
I)W OF 70 DEG E:N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)E OF 70 DEG E:NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC
TO THE E OF 72 DEG E(.)
2)S OF 05 DEG N:NW-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)I)1-2 M II)0.5-1 M 2)1-2 M(.)
A2 ARABIAN SEA :-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- 1-2 M (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- 1-2 M (.)
BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS (.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-ISOLATED RA/TS TO THE S OF 13 DEG N(.)
REST AREA FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-8-6 NM TO THE S OF 13 DEG N(.)
REST AREA 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-ISOLATED RA/TS TO THE S OF 13 DEG N(.)
REST AREA FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-8-6 NM TO THE S OF 13 DEG N(.)
REST AREA 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)

 

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

 

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

 

High Wind-Wave Alert

 

 

 

Issue Date :11-12-2013 Region : Tamil NaduComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Pondicherry
High wind waves in the range of 3.0- 3.6 meters are predicted during 17:30 on 11-12-2013 to 23:30 12-12-2013 along the Nagapattinam to Pulicat of Tamil Nadu coast. The forecasted wind speeds range from around 10 m/sec to 18 m/sec. The forecasted currents vary in the range of 100 to 130 cm/sec., at most of the locations close to the coast. The forecasted swell heights vary in the range of 2.0- 2.5 m.Under the influence of this system, rainfall at a few places would occur over coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry during next 48 hrs.

Fishermen along and off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry coasts are advised to be cautious while venturing into sea and should not venture into deep sea.

images
images
Currents

Swell

Significant Wave Height

 

Pondichery

 

High Wind-Wave Alert

 

 

 

Issue Date :11-12-2013 Region : Andhra PradeshComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Vizag
High wind waves between 3.0- 3.6 meters are forecasted from 1730 hrs of 11-12-2013 to 2330 hrs of 12-12-2013 along the Andhra coast between Kakinada to Durgarajupatnam. The forecasted wind speeds range from around 10 m/sec to 15 m/sec. The forecasted currents vary in the range of 100 to 130 cm/sec., at most of the locations close to the coast. The forecasted swell heights vary in the range of 1.5 -2.3 m.Under the influence of this system, rainfall at a few places would occur over coastal southern Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hrs.

Fishermen along and off southern Andhra Pradesh coasts are advised to be cautious while venturing into sea and should not venture into deep sea.

images
images
Currents

Swell

Significant Wave Height

Kakinada

India: 2 buses collide in Marhaura leaving 8 people dead and 17 injured – 081213 1245z

At least six (G: now 8) persons were killed and 20 (G: now 17) others injured today when a speeding bus collided head-on with another bus at Marhaura in Bihar’s Saran district, police said.

“Six people died on the spot at Karanpura village this morning when a bus which was on the way to Chapra from Patna collided with another bus coming from the opposite direction,” Superintendent of Police Barun Kumar Sinha said. The deceased have not been identified yet, he said, adding that the injured have been admitted to a nearby hospital.
Sunday, 08 December, 2013 at 05:56 (05:56 AM) UTC RSOE

Other Reports

08 Dec 2013 approx 1220z (GMT/UTC)

Eight killed, 17 others injured as two buses collide

Eight persons were killed and 17 others injured on Sunday when two buses collided head-on near a village in Bihar’s Saran district, police said.

The accident occurred near Karnpur village as two buses plying between Patna-Siwan and Siwam-Patna respectively collided killing six on the spot, Marhaura’s Sub-Divisional Police Officer (SDPO) Kundan Kumar said.

One person died during treatment at the Chapra Sadar Hospital, while another succumbed to injuries on way to the Patna Medical College and Hospital (PMCH) in the state capital, he said.

Eight killed, 17 others injured as two buses collide

As many as 17 others sustained injuries. Three of them were being treated at Marhaura referral hospital, while the remaining ones were undergoing treatment at the Sadar hospital, the SDPO said.

Six of the eight victims have been identified as Rajendra Upadhyay (65), Brajesh Kumar (34), Kumari Niharika (22), Santosh Kumar Manjhi (40), Arvind Kumar (35) and Nezamuddin (26), he said.

Both the drivers escaped after the incident even as the vehicles have been impounded, Kumar said.