UK: Most hillgoers unprepared for emergencies, Ordnance Survey study reveals – Published 30 Jun 2017 1400z (GMT/UTC)

 Most hillgoers unprepared for emergencies, Ordnance Survey study reveals

“A study by Britain’s national mapping agency has revealed many hillgoers are clueless about what to do if things went wrong.

Ordnance Survey said one in eight of people asked would not know how to deal with a mountain emergency if they had no phone signal.

And three-quarters of recreational walkers don’t plan their route properly or pack the right gear, the survey found.

The figures were released as OS announced it was teaming up with Mountain Rescue England and Wales, the umbrella body for voluntary teams south of the border, to try to reduce outdoor incidents.

There were only 14 days last year where a mountain rescue team in England and Wales wasn’t called out.

In 2016 MREW attended 1,812 callouts, up 170 on the previous year, of which 360 were serious or fatal. Mountain bike incidents also continued to rise in 2016, though not at the same rate as previous years.

OS’s survey of more than 2,000 adults from across Great Britain who enjoy recreational walking and hiking highlighted the need for a more safety-minded approach when venturing outdoors.

A total of 83 per cent of those questioned admitted that if they were in trouble on a mountain and had no phone signal they wouldn’t know what to do. It also revealed how more and more walkers and hikers, especially those from younger generations, are not carrying paper maps, compasses or whistles, and are relying entirely on the functionality of their mobile phones, even though only 28 per cent of all respondents would think to check in advance the availability of a mobile phone signal in the place to where they are heading…..” – Bob Smith, Editor of grough magazine
Thursday 29 June 2017 06:39 PM GMT Click for full story

Calling the emergency services from a mobile phone (Advice from Dartmoor Rescue)

The short video gives important information about dialing the emergency services from a mobile phone in the event of an accident. It answers important questions such as:

  • what�s the difference between 999 and 112?
  • How can you call when your mobile phone is showing no signal?
  • Or if somebody in your party is unconscious and their�s is the only mobile, �how can you bypass the phone security to make that important call and potentially save their life?

All this and more is explained simply and clearly.

So be prepared and watch the video as it could save the life or a family member of friend.

�Help Me� The Secrets of using 112 on a mobile phone in an emergency/accident

You need to register your mobile phone before being able to alert the emergency services, including mountain and cave rescue, via SMS text message. �This is best done�before�you need help. You can register by sending an SMS text message from your mobile phone as follows:

(Goaty: Suggest better to register with 112 rather than 999 � why? see video, but why not both)

sms999.001 - Version 2

More information can be found at the following website:�http://www.emergencysms.org.uk/

“Help Me” The Secrets of using a PLB (Personal Locator Beacon) in an emergency/accident

https://lh3.ggpht.com/_D_E5598eI3o/TSm5QDx_3vI/AAAAAAAACCk/aym4dYflxxg/s1600/mountainrescue.jpgGeneral Mountain/Moorland Advice from Mountain Rescue England & Wales:

Mountains and moorlands can be treacherous places without proper care and there are many, many ways to enjoy the mountain environment, be it walking, climbing, running, cycling or skiing. There�s no subsititute for experience, but there are steps you can take to minimise the chances of getting lost or hurt.

Prepare and plan

  • Develop the mountain skills you need to judge potential hazard, including the ability to read a map.
  • Think about the equipment, experience, capabilities and enthusiasm of your party members, taking into account the time of year, the terrain and the nature of the trip � and choose your routes accordingly.
  • Learn the basic principles of first aid � airway, breathing, circulation and the recovery position. It could make the difference between life and death.

Wear suitable clothing and footwear

  • Wear suitable footwear with a treaded sole, and which provides support for ankles.
  • Clothing should be colourful, warm, windproof and waterproof and always carry spare, including hat and gloves (even in summer the tops and open moorland can still be bitingly cold, and it�s always colder the higher you climb).

Carry food and drink�

  • Take ample food and drink for each member of the party. High energy food such as chocolate and dried fruit are ideal for a quick hit.
  • In cold, wet weather a warm drink is advisable, and always carry water � even in cool weather it�s easy to become dehydrated.
  • Of course, large quantities of water can weight heavy in the rucksack, so take a smaller water bottle and top up when you can � streams on hills are drinkable if fast-running over stony beds.

�and the right equipment

  • A map and compass are essential kit and should be easily accessible � not buried in the rucksack!
  • A mobile phone and GPS are useful tools but don�t rely on your mobile to get you out of trouble � in may areas of the mountains there is no signal coverage.
  • Take a whistle and learn the signal for rescue. Six good long blasts. Stop for one minute. Repeat. Carry on the whistle blasts until someone reaches you and don�t stop because you�ve heard a reply � rescuers may be using your blasts as a direction finder.
  • A torch (plus spare batteries and bulbs) is a must. Use it for signalling in the same pattern as for whistle blasts.
  • At least one reliable watch in the party.
  • Cllimbers and mountain bikers should wear a helmet. In winter conditions, an ice-axe, crampons and survival bag are essential.
  • Emergency survival kit comprising spare clothing and a bivvi bag.
  • New OrdnanceSurvey free smartphone app OSLocate will help walkers in a fix http://www.grough.co.uk/magazine/2014/03/24/ordnance-survey-free-smartphone-app-will-help-walkers-in-a-fix

Before you set out

  • Charge your phone battery! Many accidents occur towards the end of the day when both you and your phone may be low on energy.
  • Check the weather forecast and local conditions. Mountains can be major undertakings and, in the winter months, night falls early.
  • Eat well before you start out.
  • Leave your route plan including start and finish points, estimated time of return and contact details with an appropriate party.

On the hill

  • Keep an eye on the weather and be prepared to turn back if conditions turn against you, even if this upsets a long planned adventure.
  • Make sure party leaders are experienced. Keep together, allow the slowest member of the party to determine the pace, and take special care of the youngest and weakest in dangerous places.
  • Watch for signs of hypothermia, particularly in bad weather � disorientation, shivering, tiredness, pale complexion and loss of circulation in hands or toes, discarding of vital clothing. Children and older people are especially susceptible.
  • If you prefer to go alone, be aware of the additional risk. Let people know your route before you start, stick to it as far as you can and notify them of any changes.
  • If you think you need mountain rescue, get a message to the Police (112/999) as soon as possible and keep injured/exhausted people safe and warm until help reaches you.

Dangers you can avoid

  • Precipices and unstable boulder.
  • Slopes of ice or steep snow, and snow cornices on ridges or gully tops.
  • Very steep grass slopes, especially if frozen or wet.
  • Gullies, gorges and stream beds, and streams in spate.
  • Exceeding your experience and abilities and loss of concentration.

Dangers you need to monitor

  • Weather changes � mist gale, rain and snow may be sudden and more extreme than forecast.
  • Ice on path (know how to use an ice-axe and crampons).
  • Excessive cold or heat (dress appropriately and carry spare clothing!).
  • Exhaustion (know the signs, rest and keep warm).
  • Passage of time � especially true when under pressure � allow extra time in winter or night time conditions.

Check out the Safe in the Hills website � pioneered by the Kirkby Stephen MRT, for more information about how you can keep safe whilst walking in the hills.

How to take care of your feet when hiking�. The key recommendations are:

  • Choose the right hiking boots
  • Trim your toenails
  • Soften any tough skin (which are subject to hard to treat deep blisters)
  • Rest feet when walking

�Avoiding and treating foot blisters for hikers�, as well as giving some useful advice on how to treat blisters, highlights the importance of changing your (decent walking) socks when they get wet

  1. Make sure you have a decent pair of boots
  2. Take plenty of decent hiking socks
  3. Change your socks when they get damp (if you do this as early as possible you have a fighting chance to dry them in your sleeping bag)
  4. Regularly let your feet rest and breath
  5. Regularly apply talc to your feet
  6. If it is raining or very damp, wear gaiters to stop water getting into your boots

Do this and your feet, the most important hiking equipment you have, will thank you!

(Stolen from http://philsorrell.com/2010/03/01/importance-of-foot-care-whilst-hiking/)

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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West Pacific/ Guam /Marianas: Tropical Disturbance (#97W): High chance of a significant Tropical #Cyclone within next 24 hrs (JTWC 25/0200Z) – Published 25 Jun 2017 1550z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Disturbance (Invest  97W)

….has a high chance of becoming a significant Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours (JTWC 25/0200Z)

Guam and Marianas Beware!

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

WTPN21 PGTW 250200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N 146.2E TO 15.8N 141.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 145.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 147.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 145.8E, APPROXIMATELY
65 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH
INCREASING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE CENTER. A 242032Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260200Z.//
NNNN

===============================================================================

000
WWMY80 PGUM 251617 CCA
SPSMY

Special Weather Statement…Corrected
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1137 PM ChST Sun Jun 25 2017

GUZ001>004-260300-
Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan-
1137 PM ChST Sun Jun 25 2017

…TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS TONIGHT…

A developing tropical disturbance near Rota remains the subject
of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center. This disturbance will continue to produce scattered
showers, isolated thunderstorms, occasional heavy rain and gusty
winds tonight as it continues westward.

If you are planning any outdoor activities through Monday evening,
be aware of current conditions and be prepared to move indoors,
if necessary. Mariners operating small vessels should remain in
port. Beach goers and swimmers need to stay close to shore and
move indoors if lightning is present.

Residents should stay informed on the latest statements and
advisories issued by the National Weather Service and local
emergency management offices. Products issued by the National
Weather Service are posted on the WFO Guam web page at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/.

$$

Kleeschulte

Guam Infrared Color (Himawari 8)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
WHGM70 PGUM 250354
MWWGUM

URGENT – MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
154 PM CHST SUN JUN 25 2017

PMZ152>154-252000-
/O.NEW.PGUM.SI.Y.0004.170625T0354Z-170625T2000Z/
ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
154 PM CHST SUN JUN 25 2017

…SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CHST
MONDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CHST MONDAY.

EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL
BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS…ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS…SHOULD AVOID SAILING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

STANKO

060
FZMY70 PGUM 250715
MWSMY

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
515 PM CHST SUN JUN 25 2017

PMZ151>154-252000-
GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
515 PM CHST SUN JUN 25 2017

A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING FREQUENT LIGHTNING
TO THE MARIANAS WATERS TONIGHT. SEEK SAFE SHELTER INDOORS, OR
BELOW DECK FOR MARINERS AWAY FROM LAND. VISIBILITES WILL BE BELOW
1 NAUTICAL MILE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REMAIN ALERT
FOR FURTHER BULLETINS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN,
GUAM.

$$

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific/ Mexico: Tropical Storm Dora (04E) 25/1500Z nr 15.0N 101.8W, moving WNW 10 kt (NHC FL) – Published 25 Jun 2017 1608z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Dora 04E

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 12 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center FL

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 251432
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dora Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

…DORA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN…
…HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.0N 101.8W
ABOUT 180 MI…295 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI…520 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dora was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 101.8 West. Dora is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of Dora is expected to move parallel
to but remain offshore of the coast of Mexico.

Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Dora could become a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Dora is expected to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 3
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches along coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan
through Monday.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 04E (Dora) Warning #02
Issued at 25/1000Z

WTPN31 PHNC 251000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
250600Z — NEAR 14.5N 100.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 100.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z — 15.5N 102.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 16.4N 104.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 17.5N 106.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 18.4N 107.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 19.5N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 20.3N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 20.0N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

REMARKS:
251000Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 101.1W.
TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1422 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND
261000Z.//
NNNN

Other

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
FZPN03 KNHC 251554
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN JUN 25 2017

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUN 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON JUN 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUN 27.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 15.0N 101.8W 1001 MB AT 1500 UTC JUN
25 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM N
SEMICIRCLE…30 NM SE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO
14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE AND 60 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DORA NEAR 16.8N 105.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT…40 NM SE QUADRANT…30 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
60 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DORA NEAR 18.6N 108.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER…WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 19.6N 111.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 20.3N 115.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DORA NEAR 20.0N
118.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.N OF 24N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN N
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N W OF 139W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 8 FT IN N SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02S E OF 106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SUN JUN 25…

.TROPICAL STORM DORA…NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF DORA. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 99W
AND 105W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N TO 07N E OF 81W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N84W TO 12N94W, IT THEN RESUMES AT 10N107W
TO 07N131W. ITCZ FROM 07N131W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 126W AND 129W.

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

===========================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Gulf of Mexico: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three 20/1200Z nr 25.4N 90.3W, moving NW 08 kt (NHC FL) – Published 20 Jun 2017 1218z (GMT/UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AL03)

(Future TS Cindy)

A Tropical Storm Warning for…Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center FL

000
WTNT33 KNHC 201138
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
700 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

…DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.4N 90.3W
ABOUT 265 MI…430 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 300 MI…485 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* West of Cameron to High Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
25.4 North, longitude 90.3 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through Wednesday, with a turn toward the north expected
Wednesday night or Thursday. On the forecast track, the disturbance
is expected to be near the Louisiana coast late Wednesday or
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the
coast.

Satellite imagery shows that the center of the disturbance is
gradually become better defined, and it is likely that the system
will become a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
NOAA buoy 42001 just reported a pressure of 1000.6 mb (29.54
inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
10 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday
morning. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest
Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday morning.

STORM SURGE: Inundations of 1 to 3 feet are possible along the
coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight
from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 Jun, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm AL03 is currently located near 24.8 N 90.1 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). AL03 is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 35% currently
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
    Houston (29.8 N, 95.4 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201146
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
714 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

The center of Tropical Storm Bret, at 20/1200 UTC, is near 11.1N
63.6W, or about 17 nm to the ENE of La Isla de Margarita of
Venezuela. It is moving WNW westward, 290 degrees, 18 knots. The
maximum wind speeds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 knots. The
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Convective precipitation:
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Caribbean
Sea from 10N to 16N between 60W and 68W. Please read the NHC
Potential Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public
Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC for more details.

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three at 20/1200 UTC,
is near 25.4N 90.3W, about 230 nm to the SSW of the mouth of the
Mississippi River. It is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 8 knots. The
maximum wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. The
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Convective precipitation:
Scattered moderate to strong is in the waters from 26N to 30N
between 83W and 90W, and from 25N south between 83W and 87W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers inland areas
and coastal waters areas from the northern half of Guatemala
into the southern half of the Yucatan Peninsula, including in
the coastal waters of the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Please read the
NHC Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/ Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/35W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
03N to 08N southward between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/45W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, most
probably related to the ITCZ, from 06N to 08N between 40W and
46W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/71W from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
20N to 21N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N southward
between Puerto Rico and 73W.

…MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to
06N33W, and 03N43W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong
from 04N to 12N between 12W and 23W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 01N to 06N between 25W and 31W.

…DISCUSSION…

…THE GULF OF MEXICO…

A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough passes through southern
Louisiana, to a 26N94W cyclonic circulation center, to the Mexico
coast near 25N98W and 20N105W in Mexico. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in much of the
Gulf of Mexico, from 20N northward from 90W westward.

…CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD…

LIFR: none.

IFR: KGRY and KATP.

MVFR: KVQT, KMDJ, and KMIS.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA…

TEXAS: MVFR in McAllen, and in Huntsville. LOUISIANA: occasional
MVFR and areas of light rain from Patterson eastward to Lake
Pontchartain, and southeastward into the SE corner of the state.
MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in Natchez. light rain and LIFR in Pascagoula.
ALABAMA: MVFR and light rain in parts of the Mobile metropolitan
area. drizzle in Gulf Shores. light rain and LIFR in Fort Rucker
and Dothan. FLORIDA: rain, heavy at times, and LIFR conditions,
from Perry westward. LIFR/IFR around the Tampa/St. Petersburg
metropolitan area.

…THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of
the Caribbean Sea, with a 14N68W Caribbean Sea cyclonic
circulation center. Tropical Storm Bret is set to move into the
SE corner of the Caribbean Sea during the next 24 hours.

The Monsoon Trough extends from 09N74W in Colombia, through
Panama, northwestward through Costa Rica, and beyond, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 15N southward from 77W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 20/0000 UTC…according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES…MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC…are 1.06 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.10 in Curacao.

…HISPANIOLA…

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow, from an inverted
trough, is moving across the area. Rainshowers and thunder still
are possible across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS…for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Punta Cana: rain and thunder. VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist
of cyclonic wind flow, with the current N-to-S oriented trough.
Expect southerly wind flow during the first half of day two,
followed by anticyclonic wind flow during the second half of day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that day one will
consist of the rest of the inverted trough moving through the area
completely, during day one. Day one will end with SE wind flow
moving across Hispaniola. Expect SE wind flow during day two, with
an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that day one will consist of SE-to-E wind flow.
Expect cyclonic wind flow with a separate inverted trough, during
day two. Hispaniola will be on the southern side of an E-to-W
oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge.

…THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…

An upper level trough is anchored by a cyclonic circulation
center that is about 770 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico, to a 14N68W
Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation center. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
20N to 21N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N southward
between Puerto Rico and 73W. Rainshowers and thunder still are
possible across Hispaniola.

An upper level trough passes through 32N32W to 21N35W. A cold
front passes through 32N24W to 25N41W and 31N57W. Convective
precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers cover the area that is from 24N northward between 22W
and 60W, and elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward.
Widely scattered moderate is from 29N to 32N between 55W and 58W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Trinidad and Tobago/ Windward Islands/ Venezuela/ Grenada: Tropical Storm BRET AL02 20/1200Z nr 11.1N 63.6W, moving WNW 18 kt (NHC FL) – Published 20 Jun 2017 1310z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm BRET (AL02)

A Tropical Storm Warning: Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana including Isla de Margarita

National Hurricane Center FL

205017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind 19

000
WTNT32 KNHC 201132
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
800 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017

…BRET MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…11.1N 63.6W
ABOUT 20 MI…35 KM ENE OF ISLA MARGARITA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana including Isla de Margarita

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 63.6 West. Bret is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through today. On the
forecast track, the center of the tropical storm will continue to
move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea today.

Surface observations from the eastern Caribbean Sea indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, and a weakening
trend is expected to begin later today and Bret is forecast to
become a tropical depression on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will occur over portions of the
warning area for the next several hours, but these conditions should
subside later today.

RAINFALL: Bret is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2
to 4 inches over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of
Venezuela through today.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 Jun, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm BRET is currently located near 10.6 N 62.9 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). BRET is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Venezuela
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Trinidad and Tobago
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Grenada
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    the Netherlands Antilles
        probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port of Spain (10.6 N, 61.5 W)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Cumana (10.5 N, 64.2 W)
        probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
    Curacao (12.1 N, 69.0 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Aruba
        probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours
    Colombia
        probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201702N bret 20

(Image: TSR)

201702N_0 bret 20 zoom

Other

NHC Unveils New Product with Potential Tropical Cyclone in Atlantic (@wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 bret 20

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201146
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
714 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

The center of Tropical Storm Bret, at 20/1200 UTC, is near 11.1N
63.6W, or about 17 nm to the ENE of La Isla de Margarita of
Venezuela. It is moving WNW westward, 290 degrees, 18 knots. The
maximum wind speeds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 knots. The
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Convective precipitation:
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Caribbean
Sea from 10N to 16N between 60W and 68W. Please read the NHC
Potential Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public
Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC for more details.

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three at 20/1200 UTC,
is near 25.4N 90.3W, about 230 nm to the SSW of the mouth of the
Mississippi River. It is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 8 knots. The
maximum wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. The
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Convective precipitation:
Scattered moderate to strong is in the waters from 26N to 30N
between 83W and 90W, and from 25N south between 83W and 87W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers inland areas
and coastal waters areas from the northern half of Guatemala
into the southern half of the Yucatan Peninsula, including in
the coastal waters of the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Please read the
NHC Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/ Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/35W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
03N to 08N southward between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/45W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, most
probably related to the ITCZ, from 06N to 08N between 40W and
46W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/71W from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
20N to 21N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N southward
between Puerto Rico and 73W.

…MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to
06N33W, and 03N43W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong
from 04N to 12N between 12W and 23W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 01N to 06N between 25W and 31W.

…DISCUSSION…

…THE GULF OF MEXICO…

A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough passes through southern
Louisiana, to a 26N94W cyclonic circulation center, to the Mexico
coast near 25N98W and 20N105W in Mexico. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in much of the
Gulf of Mexico, from 20N northward from 90W westward.

…CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD…

LIFR: none.

IFR: KGRY and KATP.

MVFR: KVQT, KMDJ, and KMIS.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA…

TEXAS: MVFR in McAllen, and in Huntsville. LOUISIANA: occasional
MVFR and areas of light rain from Patterson eastward to Lake
Pontchartain, and southeastward into the SE corner of the state.
MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in Natchez. light rain and LIFR in Pascagoula.
ALABAMA: MVFR and light rain in parts of the Mobile metropolitan
area. drizzle in Gulf Shores. light rain and LIFR in Fort Rucker
and Dothan. FLORIDA: rain, heavy at times, and LIFR conditions,
from Perry westward. LIFR/IFR around the Tampa/St. Petersburg
metropolitan area.

…THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of
the Caribbean Sea, with a 14N68W Caribbean Sea cyclonic
circulation center. Tropical Storm Bret is set to move into the
SE corner of the Caribbean Sea during the next 24 hours.

The Monsoon Trough extends from 09N74W in Colombia, through
Panama, northwestward through Costa Rica, and beyond, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 15N southward from 77W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 20/0000 UTC…according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES…MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC…are 1.06 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.10 in Curacao.

…HISPANIOLA…

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow, from an inverted
trough, is moving across the area. Rainshowers and thunder still
are possible across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS…for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Punta Cana: rain and thunder. VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist
of cyclonic wind flow, with the current N-to-S oriented trough.
Expect southerly wind flow during the first half of day two,
followed by anticyclonic wind flow during the second half of day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that day one will
consist of the rest of the inverted trough moving through the area
completely, during day one. Day one will end with SE wind flow
moving across Hispaniola. Expect SE wind flow during day two, with
an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that day one will consist of SE-to-E wind flow.
Expect cyclonic wind flow with a separate inverted trough, during
day two. Hispaniola will be on the southern side of an E-to-W
oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge.

…THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…

An upper level trough is anchored by a cyclonic circulation
center that is about 770 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico, to a 14N68W
Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation center. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
20N to 21N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N southward
between Puerto Rico and 73W. Rainshowers and thunder still are
possible across Hispaniola.

An upper level trough passes through 32N32W to 21N35W. A cold
front passes through 32N24W to 25N41W and 31N57W. Convective
precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers cover the area that is from 24N northward between 22W
and 60W, and elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward.
Widely scattered moderate is from 29N to 32N between 55W and 58W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Tropical Depression 03E forms to the S of Mexico, bringing locally heavy rains – Published 11 Jun 2017 2150z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression 03E

Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of southeastern Mexico from Boca De Pijijiapan to Punta
Maldonado.

 Mexico and Guatemala be aware

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

 

National Hurricane Center FL

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 112033
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032017
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO…
…BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS…

 

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.5N 95.0W
ABOUT 120 MI…190 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of southeastern Mexico from Boca De Pijijiapan to Punta
Maldonado.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E
was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 95.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone will be near the
coast of Mexico in the warning area by Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected, and the depression is forecast
to become a tropical storm on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across southern Guatemala and the
Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Guerrero, with maximum
totals of 20 inches possible. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within portions of the warning area on Monday.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NE Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 11 Jun, 2017 21:00 GMT

Tropical Depression 03E is currently located near 14.5 N 95.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). 03E is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Puerto Angel (15.8 N, 96.5 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

FZNT01 KWBC 111540
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC SUN JUN 11 2017

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

ATLANTIC ICEBERG ANALYSIS AND OUTLOOK PRODUCTS…COURTESY OF
THE U.S. COAST GUARD INTERNATIONAL ICE PATROL…CAN BE FOUND
ON THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WEB PAGE AT
http://WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/ATL_TAB.SHTML(LOWERCASE).

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUN 11
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 12
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 13

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 54N46W 985 MB MOVING E 10 KT. WITHIN 240 NM SW AND S
QUADRANTS AND BETWEEN 180 NM AND 360 NM N QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO
45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 44N
TO 61N E OF 54W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N40W 990 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM
55N TO 61N E OF 57W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW ABSORBED BY LOW 54N33W DESCRIBED BELOW.

…GALE WARNING…
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N60W 981 MB. OVER ICE FREE FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 780 MN S QUADRANT AND 180 NM NE AND E QUADRANTS
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MEAN CENTER NEAR 53N51W 986
MB WITH A FRONT FROM CENTER TO 50N46W TO 42N59W. WITHIN 360 NM
SW AND S QUADRANTS AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM E AND S OF THE
FRONT WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 54N33W 978 MB.
OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 39N TO 61N E OF 47W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 17 FT…HIGHEST NEAR 46N35W.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS N OF 61N BETWEEN 48W AND 58W AREA
OF S TO SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N64W 1000 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 360 NM S AND SE QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 60N TO 66N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE W COAST
OF GREENLAND AREA OF N TO NW WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM OVER FORECAST
WATERS FROM 55N TO 59N E OF 52W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 42N TO 53N BETWEEN 42W AND
56W…FROM 53N TO 65N W OF 56W…AND WITHIN 180 NM OF 42N69W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 56N TO 64N W OF 59W…AND FROM
40N TO 50N BETWEEN 57W AND 72W.

.HIGH 32N56W 1026 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 32N55W 1024 MB.

.HIGH 35N68W 1025 MB MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N69W 1024 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 32N47W 1024 MB.

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUN 11.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON JUN 12.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUN 13.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N35W TO LOW PRES 27N48W 1018 MB
WITH TROUGH SW TO 21N55W. WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 31N45W TO
31N35W TO 28N35W TO 28N49W TO 31N35W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ATLC 06 HOUR FORECAST S OF 21N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W…INCLUDING
APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE…E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.30 HOUR FORECAST S OF 21N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W…INCLUDING
APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE…E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 15N79W TO 15N73W TO 11N71W TO
11N77W TO 15N79W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA…NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 14N80W TO 15N74W TO
11N74W TO 11N80W TO 14N80W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10
FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 14N80W TO 13N70W TO
11N71W TO 12N81W TO 14N80W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA…
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN S OF 19N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF
HONDURAS…E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST S OF 17N W OF 85W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF
HONDURAS…E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH FROM 28N83W TO 27N90W. S OF TROUGH SE
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN
60 NM OF LINE FROM 25.5N82W TO 26N89W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DIFFUSE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST S OF 22.5N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W E WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South China Sea: Tropical Storm Merbok (1702, 04W) 11/1500Z nr 18.8N 116.0E, moving NNW 13kt (JMA) – Published 11 Jun 2017 1900z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Merbok (1702, 04W)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

TS 1702 (Merbok)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 11 June 2017
<Analysis at 15 UTC, 11 June>
Scale

Intensity

Center position
N18°50′ (18.8°)

E116°00′ (116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement
NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure
1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area
ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 12 June>
Intensity

Center position of probability circle
N20°40′ (20.7°)

E115°10′ (115.2°)
Direction and speed of movement
NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure
1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle
70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 15 UTC, 12 June>
Intensity

Center position of probability circle
N22°25′ (22.4°)

E114°50′ (114.8°)
Direction and speed of movement
N 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure
998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle
90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 13 June>
Intensity

TD
Center position of probability circle
N25°10′ (25.2°)

E118°20′ (118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement
NE 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure
1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle
280 km (150 NM)

=================================================================================

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 04W (Merbok) Warning #03
Issued at 11/1500Z

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
111200Z — NEAR 18.2N 116.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 345 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 116.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 20.2N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 22.0N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 23.6N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 25.1N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 17 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z — 26.9N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 27.9N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 16 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 29.7N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 116.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 04W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN

================================================================================

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 11 Jun, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MERBOK is currently located near 18.2 N 116.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). MERBOK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

(Image: DoctorAdvice4u.com )

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 


METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 111200
WARNING 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1702 MERBOK (1702) 1002 HPA
AT 18.1N 116.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 20.2N 115.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 22.1N 115.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 25.2N 118.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK: Tynemouth lifeboat rescues world’s only engineless cargo ship, the Tres Hombres – Published 04 Jun 2017 2133z (GMT/UTC)

The world’s only Engineless Sailing Cargo Ship was towed to safety by Tynemouth RNLI lifeboat on Sunday morning (June 4th).

Tynemouth RNLI all weather lifeboat tows the Tres Hombres – the World’s only Engineless Sailing Cargo Ship – to safety at North Shields. (Image: RNLI/Adrian Don)

The lifeboat and volunteer crew members launched in response to a request for help by the skipper of the Brigantine-type sailing ship Tres Hombres.
Earlier in the morning a motor launch belonging to the 32m,128tonne sailing vessel had broken down and had been towed back to her mother ship by Cullercoats RNLI lifeboat.
The skipper of the Tres Hombres then asked for assistance in getting his vessel to a safe harbour because as she is powered only by sail and has no auxiliary engine, she relies on the now broken-down motor launch to maneuver in port. With very strong winds expected on Monday, the vessel could have been in a precarious situation so, after discussions with UK Coastguard, it was decided that the safest option for it was to tow her into the river Tyne.
Tynemouth RNLI’s all weather lifeboat was requested to launch at 10:44 and made best speed to the Tres Hombres which was anchored off Whitley Bay with Cullercoats RNLI lifeboat standing by her.
Once the lifeboat met the sailing ship the volunteer crew quickly got her under tow, while a crew member went on board to ensure the tow ropes remained secure.
The Tres Hombres and her crew of 15 were then taken to North Shields Western Quay without further incident, escorted by Cullercoats RNLI lifeboat who put two crew members ashore on the quay to assist with mooring.
Once the sailing vessel was made fast on the quay the lifeboats returned to their respective stations.
Adrian Don, the spokesman for Tynemouth RNLI lifeboat, said: ‘This is one of the most unusual services our volunteer crew members have carried out and the casualty vessel is unique as the world’s only engineless sailing cargo ship.
‘The Tres Hombres and her crew were in no immediate danger but having no engine and with her launch broken down, they had no means of safely getting into harbour and with very poor weather expected her skipper had no alternative but to ask for assistance.
‘Our volunteers were happy to help and quickly got the vessel into the shelter of the Tyne harbour’. – RNLI

bootje from De Beeldenkeuken on Vimeo.

Mexico: Tropical Depression Beatriz 02E 021000Z nr 16.6N 96.2W, moving NNE about 05kt (JTWC) – Updated 02 Jun 2017 1318z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Beatriz (02E)

…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS (AND MUDSLIDES) POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF OAXACA DUE TO PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINS…

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 02E (Beatriz) Warning #08
Issued at 02/1000Z

ep0217 jtwc 02

02E_020600sair 02

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 021000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BEATRIZ) WARNING NR 008
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
020600Z — NEAR 16.2N 96.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 96.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z — 17.3N 95.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

REMARKS:
021000Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 96.2W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BEATRIZ), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1497 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021600Z.
//
NNNN

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

084041_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind 02

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 020835
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Beatriz Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022017
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2017

…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF
OAXACA DUE TO PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINS…
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.5N 96.3W
ABOUT 55 MI…90 KM NNE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Beatriz
was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 96.3 West. Beatriz
is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast
track, the center of Beatriz is expected to move farther inland over
the state of Oaxaca through the day.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Beatriz is expected to dissipate later
today over the mountains of southeastern Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Beatriz is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches across the Mexican state of Oaxaca
with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches possible. This rainfall
is likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Lighter amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range are possible across the
southern portion of the Mexican state of Veracruz.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

NE Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 2 Jun, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Depression BEATRIZ is currently located near 16.5 N 96.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). BEATRIZ is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Oaxaca (17.1 N, 96.7 W)
        probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours
    Puerto Angel (15.8 N, 96.5 W)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Other

DBSK8-PVYAAQ_pS

(Image: DoctorAdvice4u.com at 02/0253 UTC)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm3 02

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0900 UTC FRI JUN 02 2017

WTPZ22 KNHC 020834
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022017
0900 UTC FRI JUN 02 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 96.3W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 96.3W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 96.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.3N 95.9W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 96.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BERG

000
FZPN03 KNHC 020926 CCA
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC FRI JUN 02 2017

CORRECTED PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR ITCZ

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC FRI JUN 02.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT JUN 03.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUN 04.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ INLAND NEAR 16.5N 96.3W 1007 MB AT
0900 UTC JUN 02 MOVING NNE OR 025 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 97W AND 103W SEAS 8 FT PRIMARILY
IN SW SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BEATRIZ NEAR 17.3N
95.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.FROM 08N TO 11N W OF 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NE
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.S OF LINE FROM 03.4S99W TO 01S106W TO 00N116W TO 02S120W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 03.4S107W TO 01S116W TO 01S120W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 03.4S102W TO 02S106W TO 00N115W
TO 01S120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC FRI JUN 02…

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ…NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED
STRONG N OF 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 99W.

.TROPICAL WAVE FROM 04N85W TO 13N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 05N85W TO
13N89W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 13N100W TO 08N113W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
08N113W TO 08N127W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
07N TO 11N W OF 132W.

$$
.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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