Comoros Islands/ Mayotte/ Madagascar/ Mozambique/ Mozambique Channel: Tropical Cyclone BELNA 02S07/1800Z #02S 10.9S 47.2E, moving S 07kt. 964hPa (RSMC La Réunion) – Published 07 Dec 2019 1940Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone BELNA

BELNA is a CAT2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, expected to become a CAT3 storm on the same scale by 7 Dec, 18:00 UTC., and further intensify to a CAT4 storm by 8 Dec, 18:00 UTC (TSR UCL London data)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 26 FEET – JTWC

METEO FRANCE

La Réunion

swi02_20192020

Bulletin du 07 décembre à 22H12 locales Réunion:

CYCLONE TROPICAL BELNA.Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 155 km/h.Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 220 km/h.Pression estimée au centre: 964 hPa.Position le 07 décembre à 22 heures locales Réunion: 10.9 Sud / 47.2 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 1410 km au secteur: NORD-OUEST Distance de Mayotte: 310 km au secteur: NORD-ESTDéplacement: SUD, à 13 km/h.

Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.Consulter le Bulletin d’Activité Cyclonique (voir menu de droite)pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système

Bulletin of 07 December at 22H12 local Réunion:

CYCLONE TROPICAL BELNA.Wind maximum (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 155 km / h. Estimated maximum sea speeds: 220 km / h. Estimated pressure in the center: 964 hPa.Position 07 December at 22:00 local Réunion: 10.9 South / 47.2 East.

Distance of the Reunion coast: 1410 km to the sector: NORTH-WEST Distance from Mayotte: 310 km to the sector: NORTHEASTMove: SOUTH, 13 km / h.

This bulletin is now complete.See the Cyclonic Activity Bulletin (see right menu) for forecasts on this system

See more here: http://www.meteofrance.re/cyclone/activite-cyclonique-en-cours/dirre/BELNA

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 02S (Belna) Warning #06
Issued at 07/0900Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
070600Z — NEAR 9.6S 47.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 47.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z — 10.7S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 11.9S 46.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 13.2S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 14.7S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 18.3S 44.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 21.6S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 25.2S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 9.9S 47.3E.
07DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
862 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 5-10 NM EYE IN ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN
THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KTS) AND A
070548Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 75 KTS. WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. TC 02S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 115 KTS BY TAU 36.
AFTERWARD, TC 02S WILL BEGIN ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AND EXPERIENCE
LESS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. THAT, COUPLED WITH LAND INTERACTION WITH
MADAGASCAR, SHOULD CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO BEGIN FALLING, SLOWLY AT
FIRST THEN MORE RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 96, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER MADAGASCAR AND EMERGE BACK OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN AS A 30 KT SYSTEM. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED
WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR AN EASTERN OUTLIER (NAVGEM).
NOTABLY, THE FORECAST TRACK FALLS EAST OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH
KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER WATER UNTIL ABOUT TAU 120. IF TC 02S FOLLOWS A
TRACK SIMILAR TO THAT SOLUTION, THE STORM COULD INTENSIFY FURTHER OR
WEAKEN MORE SLOWLY. BASED ON SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 7 Dec, 2019 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone BELNA is currently located near 9.6 S 47.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). BELNA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. BELNA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cosmoledo Is. (9.5 S, 47.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mayotte
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Madagascar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dzaoudzi (12.8 S, 45.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Soalala (16.1 S, 45.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 48 hours
    Besalampy (16.7 S, 44.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
    Mahajanga (15.7 S, 46.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 48 hours
    Maintirano (18.0 S, 44.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

B7 DocR

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 071811
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/12/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 07/12/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA) 964 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.9 S / 47.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/08 AT 06 UTC:
12.2 S / 46.6 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/12/08 AT 18 UTC:
13.5 S / 46.1 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

 

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Philippines: Typhoon KAMMURI (‘Tisoy’ in PH)(=CAT1 SSHWS) 03/1500Z position nr 13.4N 119.6E, moving W 11kt (JTWC) – Updated 03 Dec 2019 1500Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon KAMMURI (1928, 29W)

(‘Tisoy’ in The Philippines)

TYPHOON “TISOY” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER MINDORO STRAIT – PAGASA

KAMMURI is a CAT 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (TSR UCL London data)

 MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS  20 FEET – JTWC

Philippines and Spratly Islands beware!

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Typhoon 29W (Kammuri) Warning #24
Issued at 01/1500Z

wp2919

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
031200Z — NEAR 13.2N 120.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 120.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 13.9N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 14.7N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 14.8N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 13.9N 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 10.1N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 6.4N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 119.6E.
03DEC19. TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
NNNN

logo

 

 

TY 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 3 December 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 3 December>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N13°25′ (13.4°)
E119°35′ (119.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 440 km (240 NM)
SE 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 4 December>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N14°20′ (14.3°)
E117°50′ (117.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 40 km (20 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 4 December>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N15°00′ (15.0°)
E116°00′ (116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 5 December>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N13°55′ (13.9°)
E114°00′ (114.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 6 December>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N8°25′ (8.4°)
E112°55′ (112.9°)
Direction and speed of movement S 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Radius of probability circle 190 km (100 NM)

xxx

The Philippines

Typhoon”Tisoy”

Tropical Cyclone: WARNING

Issued at 08:00 pm, 03 December 2019
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11:00 pm today.)

 

TYPHOON “TISOY” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER MINDORO STRAIT.
  • Heavy Rainfall Outlook
  • Between tonight and tomorrow morning: Frequent to continuous heavy (with isolated intense) rains over Quezon and Rizal. Occasional to frequent heavy rains over Mindoro Provinces, rest of CALABARZON, Marinduque, and Romblon. Intermittent heavy rains over Calamian Islands, Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Cagayan Valley, and Cordillera Administrative Region.
  • Residents in the aforementioned areas, especially those living in areas highly susceptible to flooding and rain-induced landslides, are advised to take appropriate actions, coordinate with local disaster risk reduction and management offices, and continue monitoring for updates, especially the Thunderstorm or Rainfall Advisories and Heavy Rainfall Warnings issued by PAGASA Regional Services Divisions.
  • Other Hazards and Information
  • Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals over Pangasinan, southern Quirino, southern Nueva Vizcaya, rest of Aurora, rest of Nueva Ecija, and Burias Island are now lifted.
  • Sea travel is risky, especially for small seacrafts, over the seaboards of areas under TCWS, the seaboards of Northern Luzon and Visayas, the western seaboard of Palawan, and the northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao due to rough sea conditions
  • Gusty conditions may also be experienced in areas in Northern Luzon, especially in the coastal and mountainous zones, due to the Northeast Monsoon.
track-1
Location of Eye/center

At 7:00 PM today, the center of Typhoon “TISOY” was estimated based on all available data at 145 km North of Coron, Palawan (13.3 °N, 120.0 °E )

Movement

Moving West at 25 kph

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 130 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 160 kph

Forecast Position
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow afternoon): 375 km West of Subic, Zambales(14.8°N, 116.8°E)
  • 48 Hour(Thursday afternoon):655 km West of Subic, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR)(14.7°N, 114.2°E)
  • 72 Hour(Friday afternoon): 775 km West of Coron, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(10.9°N, 113.2°E)
Wind Signal (Areas with TCWS)
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • Northern Occidental Mindoro (Abra de Ilog
    • Looc
    • Lubang
    • Mamburao
    • Paluan) including Lubang Island
  • Visayas
  • Mindanao
Meteorological Condition
  • A tropical cyclone will affect the locality.
  • Winds of greater than 121 kph up to 170 kph may be expected in at least 18 hours.
Impact of the Wind
  • Many coconut trees may be broken or destroyed.
  • Almost all banana plants may be downed and a large number of trees may be uprooted.
  • Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses.
  • Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed and there may be considerable damage to structures of light to medium construction.
  • There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
  • In general, moderate to heavy damage may be experienced, particularly in the agricultural and industrial sectors.
Precautionary Measures
  • The disturbance is dangerous to the communities threatened/affected.
  • The sea and coastal waters will be very dangerous to all seacrafts.
  • Travel is very risky especially by sea and air.
  • People are advised to seek shelter in strong buildings, evacuate low-lying areas and to stay away from the coasts and river banks.
  • Watch out for the passage of the “eye” of the typhoon indicated by a sudden occurrence of fair weather immediately after very bad weather with very strong winds coming gnerally from the north.
  • When the “eye” of the typhoon hit the community do not venture away from the safe shelter because after one to two hours the worst weather will resume with the very strong winds coming from the south.
  • Classes in all levels should be suspended and children should stay in the safety of strong buildings.
  • Disaster preparedness and response agencies/organizations are in action with appropriate response to actual emergency.
What To Do
  • If the house is not strong enough to withstand the battering of strong winds go to designated evacuation center aor seek shelter in stronger houses.
  • Stay in safe houses until after the disturbances has left the area.
  • Evacuate from low-lying area and reiverbanks and stay away from coastal areas for possible flooding and strom surge.
  • All travel and outdoor activities should be cancelled.
  • Watch out for the passage of the “Eye Wall and the “Eye” of the typhoon.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • Oriental Mindoro
    • Batangas
    • rest of Occidental Mindoro
    • Marinduque
    • Cavite
    • Laguna
    • Rizal
    • Bataan
    • Metro Manila
    • southern Bulacan (Balagtas
    • Bocaue
    • Bulacan
    • Calumpit
    • Guiguinto
    • Hagonoy
    • Malolos City
    • Marilao
    • Meycauayan City
    • Obando
    • Paombong
    • Plaridel
    • Pulilan)
    • southern Pampanga (Floridablanca
    • Lubao
    • Macabebe
    • Masantol
    • Sasmuan)
    • southern Zambales (Castillejos
    • Olongapo City
    • San Antonio
    • San Felipe
    • San Marcelino
    • San Narciso
    • Subic)
    • Calamian Islands (Coron
    • Busuanga
    • Culion
    • Linapacan)
    • and western portion of Quezon (Dolores
    • Tiaong
    • Candelaria
    • Sariaya
    • San Antonio
  • Visayas
  • Mindanao
Meteorological Condition
  • A tropical cyclone will affect the the locality.
  • Winds of greater than 61 kph and up to 120 kph may be expected in at least 24 hours.
Impact of the Wind
  • Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
  • Few big trees may be uprooted.
  • Many banana plants may be downed.
  • Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
  • Large number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
  • Some old galvanized iron roofings may be peeled off.
  • In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities.
Precautionary Measures
  • The sea and coastal waters are dangerous to small seacrafts
  • Special attention should be given to the latest position, the direction and speed of movement and the intensity of the storm as it may intensify and move towards the locality.
  • The general public especially people travelling by sea and air are cautioned to avoid unnecessary risks.
  • Outdoor activities of children should be postponed.
  • Secure properties before the signal is upgraded.
  • Disaster preparedness agencies / organizations are in action to alert their communities.
What To Do
  • Prepare flashlights, batteries , matches, kerosene lamps, or candles and charcoal in anticipation of power failure, first aid kit and store ready to eat foods.
  • Keep your cell phones fully charged.
  • Elevate household things in case of flooding.
  • For fishing folks, secure fishing boats in safe area.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • Northern portion of Camarines Sur ( Cabugao
    • Libmanan
    • Pamplona
    • Pasacao
    • Sipocot
    • Lupi
    • Ragay
    • Del Gallego)
    • southern Nueva Ecija (Cabanatuan City
    • Cabiao
    • Gabaldon
    • Gapan City
    • General Tinio
    • Jaen
    • Laur
    • Palayan City
    • Peñaranda
    • San Antonio
    • San Isidro
    • San Leonardo
    • Santa Rosa
    • Aliaga
    • Licab
    • Zaragoza)
    • southern Aurora (Dipaculao
    • Maria Aurora
    • Baler
    • San Luis
    • Dingalan)
    • northern portion of Palawan (El Nido
    • Taytay
    • Araceli
    • Dumaran)
    • Cuyo Islands (Cuyo
    • Magsaysay
    • Agutaya)
    • Camarines Norte
    • Tarlac
    • rest of Quezon including Pollilo Islands
    • Romblon
    • rest of Camarines Sur
    • rest of Zambales
    • rest of Pampanga
    • and rest of Bulacan
  • Visayas
    • Northen Aklan (Malay
    • Buruanga
    • Nabas
    • Ibajay) and northern Antique (Caluya
    • Libertad
    • Pandan
  • Mindanao
Meteorological Condition
  • A tropical cyclone will affect the locality.
  • Winds of 30-60 kph may be expected in at least 36 hours or intermittent rains may be expected within 36 hours. (When the tropical cyclone develops very close to the locality a shorter lead time of the occurrence of the winds will be specified in the warning bulletin.)
Impact of the Wind
  • Twigs and branches of small trees may be broken.
  • Some banana plants may be tilted or downed.
  • Some houses of very light materials (nipa and cogon) may be partially unroofed.
  • Unless this warning signal is upgraded during the entire existence of the tropical cyclone, only very light or no damage at all may be sustained by the exposed communities.
  • Rice crop, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Precautionary Measures
  • When the tropical cyclone is strong or is intensifying and is moving closer, this signal may be upgraded to the next higher level.
  • The waves on coastal waters may gradually develop and become bigger and higher.
  • The people are advised to listen to the latest severe weather bulletin issued by PAGASA every six hours. In the meantime, business may be carried out as usual except when flood occur.
  • Disaster preparedness is activated to alert status.
What To Do
  • Inspect your house if necessary repair/fixing is needed.
  • Clean up drainage system.
  • Harvest crops tha can be yielded.
  • Monitor the latest Severe Weather Bulletin issued By PAGASA every six hours and hourly updates.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

 

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Dec, 2019 12:00 GMT

Typhoon KAMMURI is currently located near 13.2 N 120.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). KAMMURI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KAMMURI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

K3 DocR

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP21 RJTD 031200
WARNING 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1928 KAMMURI (1928) 980 HPA
AT 13.4N 119.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 14.3N 117.8E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 15.0N 116.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 13.9N 114.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 08.4N 112.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

Philippines

Go here (.pdf file) http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/tropical-cyclone-warning-for-shipping

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