Fiji Group/ South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone TINO 08P 04F 170900Z 15.9S 180.0E, moving SE 08kt. (JTWC) – Updated 17 Jan 2020 1207Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone TINO 04F, 08P

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, VANUA LEVU,
TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP AND
EASTERN HALF OF VITI LEVU.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VANUA BALAVU, CICIA, TUVUCA,
NAYAU AND LAKEBA.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND
NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, LOMAIVITI GROUP, TOTOYA, MOALA, MATUKU,
VANUAVATU, ONEATA, MOCE, KOMO, KABARA, NAMUKA-I-LAU, FULAGA, OGEA,
ONO-I-LAU AND VATOA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI
GROUP.

A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE FIJI GROUP.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 23 FEET – JTWC

JTWC Tropical Warnings

Tropical Cyclone 08P (Tino) Warning #03
Issued at 17/0900Z

sh0820

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (TINO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (TINO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
170600Z — NEAR 15.3S 179.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 125 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
340 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 179.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 17.8S 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 370 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z — 20.4S 175.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 370 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z — 23.2S 173.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 380 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 24 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 27.0S 170.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 370 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 22 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 34.3S 164.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 340 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 180.0E.
17JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (TINO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
178 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE 170429Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, PLACING
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. BASED ON PGTW/KNES DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS), AN ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T3.6 (57 KTS), AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATE OF 56 KTS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THERE REMAIN AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW, SUPPORTED BY A POINT SOURCE
POSITIONED OVER THE SYSTEM AND WELL-DEVELOPED POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS IN A
REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), CONTRIBUTING TO
THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TC 08P IS TRACKING ALONG A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL REMAIN
AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
08P IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 60 KTS IN THE NEAR TERM
AS IT TRANSITS THROUGH THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 36,
COOLING SST (LESS THAN 26 CELSIUS) WILL CAUSE TC 08P TO WEAKEN AS
IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THROUGHOUT ETT, SST WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE, DROPPING BELOW 20 CELSIUS, AND VWS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE TO VALUES GREATER THAN 60 KTS. TC 08P WILL
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72, GAINING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
TRACKS NEAR THE JET STREAM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT, INCREASING TO A 70 NM SPREAD IN MODELS BY TAU 36. AFTER
THIS, MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD; HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH THE JET AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone TINO

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 28 issued 0956 UTC Friday 17 January 2020

65660-1

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone TINO

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 9 am January 17 1 16.1S 180.0E 110
+6hr 3 pm January 17 2 17.4S 178.7W 140
+12hr 9 pm January 17 2 18.7S 177.5W 165
+18hr 3 am January 18 2 20.0S 176.3W 195
+24hr 9 am January 18 2 21.4S 175.0W 220
+36hr 9 pm January 18 1 24.7S 172.1W 280
+48hr 9 am January 19 tropical low 28.8S 169.0W 345
+60hr 9 pm January 19 tropical low 33.3S 166.5W 430
+72hr 9 am January 20 1 36.7S 164.7W 520

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 170822 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 179.3E AT
170600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 IR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS
INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 171200UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING ONTO
SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW. SYSTEM STEERED
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BY THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.
SST IS AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED
BAND OF ABOUT 0.7 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND
PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 18.3S 178.3W MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 20.8S 175.9W MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 23.6S 173.3W MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC 27.4S 169.9W MOV SE AT 19 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TINO WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
171400UTC.
Special Weather Bulletin Number SIXTEEN FOR FIJI AND ROTUMA ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 11:29pm on Friday the 17th of January 2020
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, VANUA LEVU,
TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP AND
EASTERN HALF OF VITI LEVU.
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VANUA BALAVU, CICIA, TUVUCA,
NAYAU AND LAKEBA.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND
NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, LOMAIVITI GROUP, TOTOYA, MOALA, MATUKU,
VANUAVATU, ONEATA, MOCE, KOMO, KABARA, NAMUKA-I-LAU, FULAGA, OGEA,
ONO-I-LAU AND VATOA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI
GROUP.
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE FIJI GROUP.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO CENTRE [982HPA] [CAT2] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1
SOUTH 179.6WEST OR ABOUT 40KM EAST OF UDU POINT AT 10PM TODAY.
CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF
UP TO 95KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 130KM/HR.
TINO IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 28KM/HR.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
ABOUT 180KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKEBA OR 245KM SOUTHEAST OF VANUA
BALAVU AT 10AM TOMORROW MORNING AND ABOUT 425KM EAST OF ONO-I-LAU AT
10PM TOMORROW NIGHT.

FOR VANUA BALAVU, CICIA, TUVUCA, NAYAU AND LAKEBA.
EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 95KM/HR
AND MOMENTATRY GUSTS TO 130KM/HR. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEA FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL
AREAS ESPECIALLY DURING HIGH TIDES.

FOR CIKOBIA, VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS,
LOMAIVITI GROUP, TOTOYA, MOALA, MATUKU, VANUAVATU, ONEATA, MOCE,
KOMO, KABARA, NAMUKA-I-LAU, FULAGA, OGEA, ONO-I-LAU AND VATOA:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 75KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 100KM/HR. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PERSISTENT LOCALISED HEAVY FALLS MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. SEA FLOODING ALONG COAST COULD BE
EXPECTED DURING HIGH TIDES.

FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP:
EXPECT STRONG WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 45KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY
GUSTS TO 65KM/HR. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. PERSISTENT LOCALISED HEAVY FALLS MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
FOR NORTHERN VANUA LEVU WATERS, LAU WATERS, KORO SEA:
EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UPTO 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70
KNOTS WITH HIGH SEAS AND DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS.

THE REST OF FIJI WATERS:
EXPECT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS
FROM LATER TODAY. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST
SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 2AM TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER SEVEN FOR FLOOD ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI AT 11.00pm ON FRIDAY 17TH OF JANUARY 2020

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL LOW LYING AREAS, SMALL STREAMS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS FOR THE WHOLE OF FIJI
AND REMAINS IN FORCE FOR LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF QAWA CATCHMENT

LEVEL AT DREKETILAILAI STATION WAS 3.93M AT 10.00PM WHICH IS 1.43M ABOVE WARNING LEVEL AND INCREASING.
SITUATION

HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE WHOLE OF FIJI.
TIME HEIGHT

HIGH TIDE: 00.10AM 1.90M
LOW TIDE: 06.21AM 0.68M
THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FLOOD WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 02.00AM TOMORROW.

TONGA

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NUMBER 10 FOR TONGA ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO (CATEGORY 2)
ISSUED FROM THE FUA’AMOTU TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE AT 03:00AM SATURDAY 18 JANUARY 2020
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL OF TONGA.
WARNINGS:
A STORM WARNING REMAIN INFORCE FOR ALL OF TONGA LAND AREAS AND COASTAL WATERS.

A HEAVY RAIN WARNING AND FLASH FLOOD ADVISORY REMAIN INFORCE FOR ALL OF TONGA LAND AREAS.

A HEAVY DAMAGING SWELL AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL TONGA COASTAL WATERS.

SITUATION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE “TINO” (CATEGORY 2) WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 SOUTH, LONGITUDE 179.0 WEST OR ABOUT, 370KM WEST SOUTHWEST OF NIUAFO’OU, 560KM WEST OF NIUATOPUTAPU, 595KM WEST NORTHWEST OF NEIAFU, VAVA’U, 630KM NORTHWEST OF PANGAI, HA’APAI, 670KM NORTHWEST OF NUKU’ALOFA AND 710KM NORTHWEST OF ‘EUA AT 01:00AM THIS MORNING. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO (CATEGORY 2) IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT THE SPEED OF 18 KNOTS (36KM/HR). THE MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR ITS CENTER IS ABOUT 50-55 KNOTS (100-110KM/HR) WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 65-70KNOTS (130-140KM/HR). ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, TROPICAL CYCLONE “TINO” IS EXPECTED TO LIE AT ABOUT 440KM WEST NORTHWEST OF NEIAFU, VAVA’U AT 7:00AM THIS MORNING. A GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE WHOLE OF TONGA TODAY.
FOR THE NIUAS AND VAVA’U:
STRONG TO GALE NORTH TO NORTWEST WINDS 30-45 KNOTS (60-90KM/HR), RAPIDLY INCREASING TO STORM FORCE WINDS 55 KNOTS (110KM/HR) AT TIMES WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 70 KNOTS (140KM/HR) FOR TODAY. OVERCAST WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD IN LOW LYING AREAS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND HEAVY DAMAGING SWELL. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS (6 TO 9 METERS). A HEAVY DAMAGING NORTHWESTERLY SWELL (MORE THAN 5 METERS). MARINERS OF SMALL FISHING BOATS FOR THE NIUAS COASTAL WATERS ARE HEREBY ADVISED NOT TO GO OUT TO SEA. POOR VISIBILITY IN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR HA’APAI, TONGATAPU, ‘EUA, TELE-KI-TONGA AND TELE-KI-TOKELAU:
STRONG TO GALE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 30-45 KNOTS (60-90KM/HR), RAPIDLY INCREASING TO STORM FORCE WINDS 55 KNOTS (110KM/HR) AT TIMES WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 70 KNOTS (140KM/HR) LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERCAST WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD IN LOW LYING AREAS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND HEAVY DAMAGING SWELL. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS (6 TO 9 METERS). A HEAVY DAMAGING NORTHWESTERLY SWELL (MORE THAN 5 METERS). MARINERS OF SMALL FISHING BOATS FOR THESE COASTAL WATERS ARE HEREBY ADVISED NOT TO GO OUT TO SEA. POOR VISIBILITY IN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TIDE PREDICTION
LOW TIDE                       :       07:35PM (THIS MORNING)
HIGH TIDE                         :       01:55PM (THIS AFTERNOON)
THE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RECORDED AT FUA’AMOTU AIRPORT AT 03:00AM WAS 997.2 MILLIBARS AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WAS 98%. THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED ABOUT 6:00AM THIS MORNING.

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

Unable to obtain data at this time
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

STORM WARNING 028 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 170725 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8 SOUTH 179.3
EAST AT 170600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 15.8S 179.3E at 170600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY
171200UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.2S 178.2W AT 171800UTC
AND NEAR 20.7S 175.9W AT 180600UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 026.

 

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Australia: Severe Tropical Cyclone CLAUDIA 07S Category 3 (Australian scale) 12/2100Z position nr 16.0S 117.9E, moving WSW 21kt (JTWC) – Updated 12 Jan 2020 2206Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone CLAUDIA 07S

Severe Tropical Cyclone Claudia, Category 3 (Australian scale) is expected to strengthen further during Monday and remain well offshore from mainland WA.

CLAUDIA is a CAT1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, expected to become CAT2 on the same scale by 13 Jan, 6:00 (TSR UCL London data)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 26 FEET – JTWC

JTWC Tropical Warnings

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Claudia) Warning #06
Issued at 12/2100Z

sh0720-1

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121800Z — NEAR 15.7S 118.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 250 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 118.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 16.7S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 17.6S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 18.4S 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 19.2S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z — 20.9S 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 22.4S 103.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 22.7S 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 117.9E.
12JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
240 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT BUT ASYMMETRIC DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC.
HOWEVER, MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN
BOTH THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 121831Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE, WHICH
SHOWS A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS
HEDGED ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65
KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE STRUCTURE SEEN IN
THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TC 07S IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, 25 TO 30 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THIS IS OFFSET BY THE FACT THAT
THE SHEAR AND STORM MOTION ARE IN-PHASE. TC 07S CONTINUES TO HAVE
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND AN IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
BETWEEN 29 AND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07S IS TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR WILL BE THE PRIMARY
STEERING FEATURE TROUGH TAU 96. FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY, TO NEAR RAPID, INTENSIFICATION
IN THE SHORT TERM. BEYOND TAU 24, TC 07S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXPERIENCES
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A SPREAD OF 116 NM. BY TAU 120, THE
SPREAD INCREASES TO 250 NM WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE THE OUTLIER TO THE
SOUTHEAST. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Claudia

Issued at 2:53 am AWST Monday 13 January 2020. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

idw60280-1

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Claudia, Category 3 is expected to strengthen further during Monday and remain well offshore from mainland WA.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Claudia at 2:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.7 degrees South, 118.9 degrees East , 435 kilometres northwest of Broome and 515 kilometres north of Port Hedland .
Movement: west southwest at 33 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Claudia continues to move over open waters to the northwest of the Kimberley. Claudia is expected to strengthen further during Monday and continue to track towards the west southwest and remain over open waters, well north of the Pilbara on Monday and Tuesday.

Hazards:

GALES and HEAVY RAINFALL are not expected over mainland Western Australia.

Strong winds are likely for coastal waters off the West Kimberley Coast [refer to Marine Wind Warning IDW20100]. Strong winds are likely to extend to coastal waters off the Pilbara coast on Monday and Tuesday.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 am January 13 3 15.7S 118.9E 35
+6hr 8 am January 13 3 16.2S 117.4E 70
+12hr 2 pm January 13 3 16.6S 116.0E 90
+18hr 8 pm January 13 3 17.0S 114.5E 115
+24hr 2 am January 14 3 17.4S 113.1E 135
+36hr 2 pm January 14 3 18.3S 110.8E 175
+48hr 2 am January 15 2 19.1S 108.9E 210
+60hr 2 pm January 15 1 19.9S 107.2E 245
+72hr 2 am January 16 1 20.8S 105.8E 280

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 am AWST Monday

 

 

Infrared image courtesy of the Japan Meteorological Agency. Blue Marble surface image courtesy of NASA.

IDY28000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Bureau National Operations Centre

Satellite Notes for the 1800UTC Chart
Issued at 6:19 am EDT Monday on 13 January 2020
Severe Tropical Cyclone Claudia, Category 3, is off the Pilbara coast and is
moving in a west-southwesterly direction. While the Monsoon Trough is triggering
thunderstorms near the Kimberley coast and across the NT Top End.

Areas of thunderstorms can be seen over central and northern Queensland and also
across the western parts of WA near surface troughs. While there is patchy high
cloud across much of central Australia.

Low cloud near the NSW and Queensland coast and adjacent ranges is due to a
southeasterly onshore airstream. While there is also some low cloud associated
with a weak cold front moving across the southern coastal fringe of WA.


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

No land warning
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

FQAU21 AMMC 110715
40:2:1:31:11:01:00
IDY10240
SECURITE

High Seas Forecast for Northern METAREA 8/10/11
NORTHERN AREA: COAST AT 125E TO 12S125E TO 12S90E TO 0S90E TO 0S142E TO COAST
AT 142E

Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
For 24 hours commencing 1100 UTC 11 January 2020

Please be aware
Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger
than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum
waves can be twice the forecast height.

Part 1 Warnings
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre Gale Warning.

Part 2 Situation at 0600 UTC
Refer to latest warnings for details of the area affected.

Monsoon Trough from 09S142E to Tropical Low 996hPa 12.8S127.5E to 15S125E.
Forecast 10S142E to Tropical Cyclone 986hPa near 14.3S121.7E at 121200UTC.

Part 3 Forecast
Refer to latest warnings.

Within area bounded by 07S104E 02S110E 03S137E 15S129E, outside warning area:
Westerly quarter winds, tending clockwise within 300nm of Tropical Low/Cyclone.
Wind speeds 15/25 knots, increasing to 25/33 knots within 240nm of Tropical
Low. Moderate to rough seas. Low swell, increasing to moderate south of 8S.

Remainder:
Variable winds below 20 knots with slight to moderate seas. Low swell
increasing to moderate south of 08S west from 120E.

Heavy rain, widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms within 240nm of
Tropical Low/Cyclone. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms within
120nm of Monsoon Trough. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
remainder. Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation.

WEATHER MELBOURNE

The next routine forecast will be issued at 19:15 UTC Saturday.

WOAU01 AMMC 111106
IDY21000
40:2:1:04:55S075E35060:01:00
SECURITE
High Seas Weather Warning for METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC
At 1106UTC 11 January 2020

GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AREA

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger
than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum
waves can be twice the forecast height.

SITUATION AT 1200UTC
Vigorous westerly flow.

AREA AFFECTED
Bounded by 44S096E 48S098E 46S115E 42S110E 44S096E.

FORECAST
Westerly quarter winds 30/40 knots west of 103E at first and then extending
throughout area by 111800UTC. Winds easing below 34 knots west of 100E by
111800UTC, west of 109E by 120000UTC and throughout area by 120300UTC. Rough to
very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell.

 

WOAU03 AMMC 111105
IDY21020
40:2:1:04:70S100E35060:01:00
SECURITE
High Seas Weather Warning for METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC
At 1105UTC 11 January 2020

GALE WARNING FOR SOUTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREA

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger
than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum
waves can be twice the forecast height.

SITUATION AT 1200UTC
Vigorous flow associated with a low 963hPa near 54S110E. Forecast low 955hPa
near 55S113E at 111800UTC, low 948hPa near 45S121E at 120000UTC, 29E 58S129E to
low 944hPa near 56S118E at 120600UTC and low 944hPa near 57S122E at 121200UTC.

AREA AFFECTED
Bounded by 43S112E 47S131E 62S135E 64S131E 64S119E 55S105E 48S108E 47S113E
43S112E.

FORECAST
Clockwise 34/47 knots within 360nm of low in all sectors except southeastern
sector, extending to within 660nm of low from 120600UTC. Very rough to high
seas. Moderate to heavy swell.

===========================================================================================================Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia: Tropical Cyclone BLAKE 06/1800Z 17.7S 122.1E, moving SSW 05kt. Max winds 35kt. 991 hPa (TCWC Perth) – Published 06 Jan 2020 2015Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone BLAKE 06S

Tropical Cyclone Blake is a weak Category 1 system just to the north of Broome and is moving south – BoM

Warning zone: Cape Leveque to De Grey, extending inland to include Marble Bar.

Watch zone: De Grey to Whim Creek, including Port Hedland and extending inland to include Nullagine.

 

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Blake

Issued at 3:04 am AWST Tuesday 7 January 2020. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 17.

idw60280

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Blake is a weak Category 1 system just to the north of Broome and is moving south.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Cape Leveque to De Grey, extending inland to include Marble Bar.

Watch zone: De Grey to Whim Creek, including Port Hedland and extending inland to include Nullagine.

Cancelled zones: Cockatoo Island to Cape Leveque.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Blake at 2:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 17.7 degrees South, 122.1 degrees East , 30 kilometres north northwest of Broome and 170 kilometres west southwest of Derby .
Movement: south southwest at 9 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Blake has weakened due to interaction with the land. It will move southwards and may reintensify if it moves far enough off the coast.

The system is forecast to move towards the south-southwest and stay close to the coast today. It is expected to cross the coast along Eighty Mile Beach near Wallal this evening as a category 1 tropical cyclone.

Hazards:

GALES may be occurring along coastal parts of the Dampier Peninsula to the north of Broome and may develop near the coast between Broome and Bidyadanga over the next 6 hours. GALES could extend to Wallal Downs and De Grey during Tuesday or early Wednesday. There is a slight risk of GALES extending further along the Pilbara coast as far as Whim Creek (including Port Hedland) and into inland parts of the eastern Pilbara as far inland as Nullagine overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.

Heavy rainfall associated with the system is expected in the eastern Pilbara and far southwestern Kimberley during Tuesday and Wednesday. Persistent monsoonal rain and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue on the northwest Kimberley coast today and could see moderate to heavy falls, well away from the system centre.

Flood Watches and Warnings are current, please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/for further details.

Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts:

YELLOW ALERT: People in or near communities from Cape Leveque to Bidyadanga, including Bidyadanga and Broome, need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near communities from Bidyadanga to De Grey, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities from Kuri Bay to Cape Leveque not including Cockatoo Island are advised that wind and storm surge dangers have passed but you need to take care to avoid the dangers caused by damage.

Communities between De Grey and Whim Creek and the eastern inland Pilbara, including Marble Bar should listen for the next advice.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 am January 7 1 17.7S 122.1E 45
+6hr 8 am January 7 1 18.3S 121.7E 95
+12hr 2 pm January 7 1 18.9S 121.3E 120
+18hr 8 pm January 7 1 19.5S 121.0E 145
+24hr 2 am January 8 1 20.1S 120.7E 165
+36hr 2 pm January 8 tropical low 21.3S 120.0E 200
+48hr 2 am January 9 tropical low 22.7S 119.8E 235
+60hr 2 pm January 9 tropical low 24.1S 120.2E 275
+72hr 2 am January 10 tropical low 25.1S 121.3E 310

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 6:00 am AWST Tuesday

IDW24100

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCASTTROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17
Issued at 2:53 am WST on Tuesday 7 January 2020

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Blake is a weak Category 1 system just to the north of Broome and is moving south.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Cape Leveque to De Grey, extending inland to include Marble Bar.

Watch Zone
De Grey to Whim Creek, including Port Hedland and extending inland to include Nullagine.

Cancelled Zone
Cockatoo Island to Cape Leveque.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Blake at 2:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 45 kilometres of 17.7 degrees South 122.1 degrees East, estimated to be 30 kilometres north northwest of Broome and 170 kilometres west southwest of Derby.

Movement: south southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

 

Tropical Cyclone Blake has weakened due to interaction with the land. It will move southwards and may reintensify if it moves far enough off the coast.

 

The system is forecast to move towards the south-southwest and stay close to the coast today. It is expected to cross the coast along Eighty Mile Beach near Wallal this evening as a category 1 tropical cyclone.

Hazards:
GALES may be occurring along coastal parts of the Dampier Peninsula to the north of Broome and may develop near the coast between Broome and Bidyadanga over the next 6 hours. GALES could extend to Wallal Downs and De Grey during Tuesday or early Wednesday. There is a slight risk of GALES extending further along the Pilbara coast as far as Whim Creek (including Port Hedland) and into inland parts of the eastern Pilbara as far inland as Nullagine overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.

 

Heavy rainfall associated with the system is expected in the eastern Pilbara and far southwestern Kimberley during Tuesday and Wednesday. Persistent monsoonal rain and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue on the northwest Kimberley coast today and could see moderate to heavy falls, well away from the system centre.

 

Flood Watches and Warnings are current, please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises of the following community alerts:

 

YELLOW ALERT: People in or near communities from Cape Leveque to Bidyadanga, including Bidyadanga and Broome, need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

 

BLUE ALERT: People in or near communities from Bidyadanga to De Grey, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

 

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities from Kuri Bay to Cape Leveque not including Cockatoo Island are advised that wind and storm surge dangers have passed but you need to take care to avoid the dangers caused by damage.

 

Communities between De Grey and Whim Creek and the eastern inland Pilbara, including Marble Bar should listen for the next advice.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am AWST Tuesday 07 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

rb_lalo-animated


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 6 Jan, 2020 12:00 GMT

 

Tropical Storm BLAKE is currently located near 17.4 S 122.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). BLAKE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Lombadina (16.5 S, 122.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Broome (18.0 S, 122.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Derby (17.3 S, 123.7 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Lagrange (18.7 S, 121.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Anna Plains (19.3 S, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Wallal Downs (19.8 S, 120.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Marble Bar (21.2 S, 119.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
    Nullagine (21.9 S, 120.1 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

 

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:2:2:24:18S122E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1901UTC 6 JANUARY 2020

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Blake was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal seven south (17.7S)
longitude one hundred and twenty two decimal one east (122.1E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 991 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 20 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 20 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in NW quadrant, extending to

within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in NW quadrant by 0600 UTC 07 January.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots near the centre increasing to 40 knots by 0600 UTC 07
January.

Winds above 34 knots within 20 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 20 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell, extending to

Within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell by 0600 UTC 07 January.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 07 January: Within 65 nautical miles of 18.9 south 121.3 east
Central pressure 987 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 07 January: Within 90 nautical miles of 20.1 south 120.7 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 07 January 2020.

WEATHER PERTH

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.