Yap/ Fais/ Ulithi/ Philippines/ Pacific Ocean: Super Typhoon Maysak (04W) / Chedeng 311500Z POSITION near 10.4N 139.3E, moving W at 14 knots (JTWC) – 310315 1615z (GMT/UTC)

Super Typhoon Maysak (04W)/ Chedeng (in Philippines)

YAP in the Caroline Islands & Philippines beware!

(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 40 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1504-00 M31

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TY 1504 (MAYSAK)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 31 March 2015

<Analyses at 31/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Violent
Center position N10°10′(10.2°)
E139°55′(139.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 905hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N390km(210NM)
S330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N10°40′(10.7°)
E137°35′(137.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 900hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 01/12 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N11°20′(11.3°)
E135°55′(135.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 895hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(120kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(170kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 02/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°40′(12.7°)
E133°35′(133.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°55′(13.9°)
E130°40′(130.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

Philippines

Pagasa LogoPAGASA-DOST Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

TC Update: as of 10PM today 31 March 2015 (PhT), Typhoon w/ International Name “MAYSAK” was located at 1,530 km East of Surigao City (10.2°N, 139.4°E). Maximum sustained winds of 205kph near the center and gustiness of up to 240kph. It is forecast to move West Northwest at 20kph

11066785_778410438935534_8001588373223099484_n

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wp0415 M31

04W_311132sair

WTPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
311200Z — NEAR 10.2N 139.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 139.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 10.9N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 11.5N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z — 12.2N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 13.0N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 14.2N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 15.0N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 15.7N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 139.3E.
SUPER TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 31 Mar, 2015 12:00 GMT

Super Typhoon MAYSAK (04W) currently located near 10.2 N 139.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yap (9.5 N, 138.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
    Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
    Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image TSR)

(Image TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Philippines – As of today, there is no Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping issued – Dost pagasa

TYPHOON WARNING

WTJP31 RJTD 311500
WARNING 311500.
WARNING VALID 011500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1504 MAYSAK (1504) 905 HPA
AT 10.3N 139.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 10.8N 137.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 11.3N 135.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
895 HPA, MAX WINDS 120 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Further warnings here:

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US (Okelahoma): Multiple tornadoes across OK leave at least 1 person dead in Sand Springs & at least 20 injured – Published 270315 1505z (GMT/UTC)

Multiple tornadoes hop-scotched across the state Wednesday leaving at least one person dead in Sand Springs and at least 20 people treated at metro hospitals, four with serious injuries.

Damage in Sand Springs from the tornado (Credit NWS)

Damage in Sand Springs from the tornado (Credit NWS)

  •   The National Weather Service has rated the Sand Springs tornado as an E-F 2. That means it had winds of up to 135 MPH.
  • Classes resume today in Sand Springs and Tulsa schools.
  • The Governor toured the damage area. FEMA expected today.
  • PSO reports only 200  customers are  still without power.

A Norman man also died in a single-vehicle accident during the storm, but police could not confirm whether the wreck was weather-related.

Moore schools are closed Thursday as district officials survey damages. Western Heights schools are also closed. According to the school’s website: “Due to storm damage around our north side schools, we are canceling school Thursday, March 26.”

The National Weather Service in Norman confirmed a tornado touched down about 6:35 p.m. in Moore at SW 4 and crossed Interstate 35 near the Warren Theatres, the area where the May 20, 2013, tornado left 25 people dead. The weather service described the tornado as “weak” and lasting briefly. Baseball-size hail and heavy thunderstorms bombarded the metro area for several hours.

In the Norman fatal accident, a pickup driver died near the 2900 block of E Robinson. The pickup was traveling east on Robinson when it left the road and struck a utility pole. The identity of the driver was withheld Wednesday night, pending notification of family.

Across the state, two tornadoes west of Sands Springs resulted in the death of at least one man in the River Oaks Mobile Home Park. Moore Public Schools announced on its Facebook page that classes were canceled Thursday because of damage across the district. The extent of the damage was not known late Wednesday, according to a district spokesman, but officials expect roof damage, blown-out windows and power outages. An update about the state of the buildings is expected Thursday. Southgate Elementary received extensive damage to its roof.

At least 20 people were treated at local hospitals for everything from bumps and bruises to lacerations suffered in the storm, said Lara O’Leary, EMSA spokeswoman. A University of Oklahoma Medical Center spokeswoman said the hospital received eight patients – four suffered serious injuries and were admitted to the trauma center.

Debris lined streets and hung from trees in south Moore shortly after the storm passed through. Metal carports lay crumpled in the road and wrapped around fences and sheds, and the jagged stumps of trees snapped in half by the strong winds pointed at the dark sky. Sirens filled the evening air as neighbors stood on their front porches, surveying the damage which included one house with a torn-off roof and several others with damage.

At the Furr’s Fresh Buffet, a cafeteria along Interstate 35 in Moore, about 20 customers huddled together in the walk-in coolers as a tornado came close. “It blew a roof out less than a mile away from us,” said manager R.J. Garza. “We just felt the vibration. Once the sirens went on, we sprung into action.” Integris Canadian Valley Hospital in Yukon received the largest amount of wind damage of the Integris hospitals, said Brooke Cayot, Integris Health Systems spokeswoman. The building lost power and was operating on a generator Wednesday night.

Between 500 and 600 people took shelter at Integris Baptist Medical Center, and more than 600 took shelter at Integris Southwest Medical Center. Moore police Sgt. Jeremy Lewis said significant damage was reported from Santa Fe over to Janeway and from SW 4 up to NW 6. Numerous homes in that area lost roofs or had significant structure damage, he said.

A few blocks to the south, one of the three KOMA towers on SW 4 still stood. Just to the east, the steeple of the Moore Church of the Nazarene lay in its front yard. National Weather Service could not confirm how many tornadoes touched down but there were media reports of tornadoes landing in Oklahoma City, Yukon and Norman.

More than 36,000 people lost power in the Oklahoma City metro area due to the weather, according to Oklahoma Gas and Electric. Customers at Taco Bueno, 1109 N Santa Fe in Moore, hid in the walk-in freezer, the same freezer other customers took cover in during the May 20, 2013, tornado. “Afterwards, we started making food by candlelight,” said Olga Ramierez, the district manager.

Friday, 27 March, 2015 at 04:38 (04:38 AM) UTC RSOE

Related:

Grateful Oklahomans salvage belongings after killer storm .

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

More about tornadoes:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado

Sand Springs Tornado Red Cross Relief Drive

Tornado_slider-4

http://media.cmgdigital.com/shared/news/documents/2015/03/27/News_Release_-__Red_Cross_Tornado_Relief_Fundraiser.pdf

Australia (NT): Ex-Tropical Cyclone Nathan 18P – Updated 240315 1715z (GMT/UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Nathan

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

IDA00041 N24

NT

Details for: Ex-TC Nathan

Australia National Weather Warnings Summary. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings/index.shtml

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh1815 N24

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/18P_040532sams.jpg

WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
240600Z — NEAR 12.5S 132.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 132.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z — 12.7S 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 132.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NATHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 88 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18P HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK INLAND OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS WHILE RAPIDLY WEAKENING. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXPOSED, BROADENING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
SOUTHEASTWARD. RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE DARWIN RADAR PROVIDES FURTHER
EVIDENCE OF THE WEAKENED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH BROAD, FRAGMENTED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY-DEFINED CENTER. MULTIPLE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE REGION INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
(ADJUSTED TO 1-MINUTE AVERAGE) OF ONLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY,
THE MOST RECENT DARWIN SOUNDING SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR THROUGH
THE COLUMN WHILE THE LATEST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATES
DRY AIR ADVECTING ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
SYSTEM IS ALSO LOCATED UNDER NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS. THERFORE, THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH AT LEAST TAU 48 WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT AFTER TAU 60 TO 72 AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Mar, 2015 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Depression NATHAN (18P) currently located near 12.5 S 132.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Oenpelli (12.3 S, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA10 / WARNING_WESTERN_DARWIN / 1235

WOAU03 AMMC 241235
IDY21020
40:3:1:04:55S075E35060:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BNOC
AT 1235UTC 24 MARCH 2015
GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AREA
PLEASE BE AWARE
WIND GUSTS CAN BE 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE,
AND MAXIMUM
WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.
SITUATION
VIGOROUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT FORECAST NEAR 44S076E 50S088E AT 241800UTC, 44S077E
50S090E AT
250001UTC, 43S080E 50S093E AT 250600UTC AND 43S084E 46S091E 50S096E
AT
251200UTC.
AREA AFFECTED
BOUNDED BY 46S080E 50S091E 50S101E 44S097E 43S092E 43S080E 46S080E.
FORECAST
W/NW WINDS 30/40 KNOTS DEVELOPING WITHIN 240NM EAST OF COLD FRONT
AFTER
241800UTC AND EXTENDING TO WITHIN 360NM EAST OF COLD FRONT BY
250600UTC.
W/SW WINDS 30/40 KNOTS DEVELOPING WITHIN 120NM SOUTHWEST OF COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF
45S BY 250600UTC.
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SWELL.
WEATHER MELBOURNE=

Further warnings here: METAREA X

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK: Body of missing woman recovered by lifeboats from Filey and Flamborough – Published 180315 0915z (GMT/UTC)

The body of a woman has been recovered by RNLI volunteer crews from Filey and Flamborough in a prolonged and difficult combined operation in the early hours of Tuesday 17 March.

Shortly before 11pm on Monday 16 March, Humber Coastguard requested the launch of both Filey lifeboats to ascertain that an object spotted by a crew from Sea King helicopter Rescue 128 was indeed a missing person for whom numerous Coast Rescue Teams and Police Officers had been searching in the vicinity of the RSPB Bird Sanctuary about 4 miles south of Filey.

Filey’s Mersey class all-weather lifeboat, The Keep Fit Association, launched under the command of Coxswain/Mechanic, Barry Robson, to escort and provide some safety cover in the pitch darkness and heavy swell for Filey’s inshore lifeboat, Braund, with a crew comprising: Richard Johnson (helm), Paul Wilson and Tom Barkley.
It was necessary for a member of the inshore lifeboat crew to go ashore at high water in a heavy swell and darkness to check the condition of the casualty. This proved to be a very difficult and prolonged task and led to Flamborough’s Atlantic 85 Lifeboat, Elizabeth Jane Palmer, being asked to assist.
Eventually, the casualty was brought out to the all-weather lifeboat from where she was handed over to Flamborough inshore lifeboat to take back to South Landing, Flamborough.
Some 6 hours after the initial call-out both Filey’s lifeboats returned to the beach at Coble Landing and were recovered onto their respective carriages.
Barry Robson, Filey Lifeboat Coxswain / Mechanic said: “This incident tested both lifeboat crews as it turned out to be much more difficult and longer than expected. Both the Filey and Flamborough teams showed real professionalism dealing with the situation and for both volunteer crews their extensive training paid off. Thanks must also go to all the Coast Rescue Team members who were there.”
He added: “We are very sorry that we could do nothing for the lady and our thoughts are with the family at this time” –

John Ward
Lifeboat Press Officer at Filey Lifeboat Station.

Philippines/ Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm BAVI / BETTY(1503) 170600Z nr 15.3N 135.4E, moving WNW at 13 knots (JMA) – Updated 170315 0820z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Bavi (1503)(03W)/ “BETTY” in Philippines

…BAVI IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND COULD BE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE TONIGHT….NWS GUAM

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

wp201503_sat_anim BAVI 17

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1503-00 BAVI 17

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15031709

TS 1503 (BAVI)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 17 March 2015

<Analyses at 17/06 UTC>
Scale –
Intensity –
Center position N15°20′(15.3°)
E135°25′(135.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW280km(150NM)
SE170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 17/18 UTC>
Intensity –
Center position of probability circle N15°35′(15.6°)
E133°40′(133.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 18/06 UTC>
Intensity –
Center position of probability circle N16°05′(16.1°)
E131°55′(131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 19/06 UTC>
Intensity –
TD
Center position of probability circle N16°30′(16.5°)
E129°05′(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)

PAGASA Track as of 8 a.m., 17 March 2015 Satellite Image 
betty 15031700 bettysat 15031700

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER ONE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT: TROPICAL STORM “BETTY” (BAVI)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Tuesday, 17 March 2015

The Tropical Storm {BAVI} east of Bicol Region will enter The Philippine Area Of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon and will be named “BETTY”.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.)
1,530 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Coordinates: 15.4°N, 136.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph.
Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 20 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook: 24 hour (Tomorrow morning):
1,030 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
48 hour (Thursday morning):
640 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
72 hour (Friday morning):
270 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
No Public Storm Warning Signal

Estimated rainfall amount is from 2.5 – 7.5 mm per hour (light – moderate) within the 500 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.

The Tropical Storm is expected to weaken into a Tropical Depression within the next 24-36 hours.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11PM today.

 11  a.m. Weather Bulletin in pdf 

National Weather Service Forecast OfficeWFO Guam

errorTrack1 BAVI 17
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 170235
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
200 PM CHST TUE MAR 17 2015

…TROPICAL STORM BAVI WEAKENING…

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.3N 135.8E

ABOUT 430 MILES NORTH OF YAP
ABOUT 660 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 630 MILES WEST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 610 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST-NORTHWEST…290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
AT 100 PM CHST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.8 EAST…MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. BAVI IS EXPECTED TO CURVE WESTWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 40 MPH. SATELLITE DATA
INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES…MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BAVI IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND COULD BE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

ZIOBRO

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wp0315 BAVI 17

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03W_162332sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 170300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
170000Z — NEAR 15.2N 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 136.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 15.6N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 15.8N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 16.0N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 16.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 15.9N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 135.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 170600

WTJP21 RJTD 170600
WARNING 170600.
WARNING VALID 180600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1503 BAVI (1503) 998 HPA
AT 15.3N 135.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 15.6N 133.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 16.1N 131.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 16.5N 129.1E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WTPH RPMM 170000
TTT GALE WARNING 01

AT 0000 17 MARCH TROPICAL STORM [BAVI] {1503} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE SIX POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 180000 ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 190000 ONE SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ONE EAST AND AT 200000 ONE SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

Further warnings here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

New Zealand: Tropical Cyclone PAM 17P CAT3 151500Z POSITION nr 34.2S 178.8E, moving SE at 20 Kts (JTWC) – Updated 150315 1448z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 17P (PAM)

(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 40 FEET – JTWC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

sp201517_sat_anim Pam 15

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

New Zealand

Issued at 12:54am Monday 16 Mar 2015 (Local time)

UPDATE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM

At midnight Sunday tropical cyclone Pam was situated about 450km to the northeast of Auckland and 450km to the north of East Cape. It has already brought 70mm or rain to parts of Gisborne and 140 to 150 kilometer an hour wind gusts to exposed parts of Auckland and Northland.

It is expected to lie about 150km east of East Cape (northern Gisborne)by midday Monday,then move away from the New Zealand coastline towards the Chatham Islands.Strong southeast winds and rain are expected over much of the North Island today, along with extremely large seas about the east coast.Wind gusts of 160 km/h or more are possible about the eastern Bay of Plenty and northern parts of Gisborne.Winds of this strength are likely to cause damage to trees and powerlines and could lift roofs and make for hazardous driving conditions.A burst of heavy rain accompanies these winds, with 180-220 mm possible about the Gisborne ranges.Please refer to the latest severe weather warnings and watches issued by MetService for more information. The total combined waves (sea and swell)generated by cyclone Pam are expected to rise to 7-8m around the northern New Zealand coastline and even up to 9m around the northern Gisborne coast.
For any further information go to: http://www.metservice.com/national/home
The next update to this blog will be around midnight Sunday 15 March.
For further information please contact:
Duty Meteorologist 044700815
+++++++++++++

Cyclone Pam – Latest update 1am Monday 16th March

HORDUR THORDARSON, METSERVICE METEOROLOGIST

Sunday 16 March 2015 1:00am

Category 3 Cyclone Pam was lying near 34S 178.5E at midnight, or about 450 kilometres northeast of Auckland and 450 kilometres north of East Cape on a track to the south-southeast as shown on the image below.

Track

The effects of Cyclone Pam are already being felt in some areas. A wind gust to 150 kilometres per hour was observed near Kaeo in Northland and a gust of 144 kilometres an hour was observed at Channel Island between Coromandel Peninsula and Great Barrier Island this evening. Rain is becoming heavy in Gisborne and and 70mm have already accumulated in some areas there.

Rain radar at 11pm Sunday
Rain radar at 11pm Sunday

Pam is expected to be reclassified early this morning and will from then on be considered an extra tropical cyclone.

Infra red image at 11pm Sunday
Infra red image at 11pm Sunday

Why will it be re classified? The reason for this is that the nature of the system changes. A tropical cyclone derives its energy from latent heat released in strong deep convection. Warm moist air over a warm sea surface rises, condenses, warms further and continues to rise. This is the energy that intensifies and maintains a tropical cyclone. Once the cyclone moves south out of the tropics and over cooler waters this energy source decreases. Normally this will lead to a slow weakening of the system.

There is however a new energy source that becomes available to the storm as it moves out of the tropics. This energy comes from the difference between hot and cold air. If there is a large temperature difference over a relatively short distance this can be a powerful source of energy that re-energises the storm as it moves out of the tropics.

The main differences between a tropical cyclone and an extra tropical cyclone are:

Tropical Cyclone                                                Extra tropical cyclone

No fronts                                                             Fronts

Winds max close the centre                           Wind maximum well away front the centre

Driven by latent heat release                         Strong temperature gradients

Reclassification does not mean that “Pam” no longer poses any threat. Extremely strong wind gusts, heavy rain and phenomenal waves are still expected, and details can be found in http://www.metservice.com/warnings/home as well as in http://blog.metservice.com/ or http://www.metservice.com/national/home

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh1715 pam 15

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/17P_151132sair.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 151500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 33.3S 178.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 140 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.3S 178.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 37.0S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 34.2S 178.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND LIMITED CORE CONVECTION, WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THIS IS CONFIRMED
WITH A 151246Z GPM IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE SYSTEM TAKING ON FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AS IT BECOMES FULLY ENVELOPED IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST BASED ON THE
TIGHT AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODELS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 40 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Mar, 2015 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Cyclone PAM (17P) currently located near 33.3 S 178.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Zealand
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201517P pam 15

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING

ZCZC 387
WHNZ41 NZKL 150626
HURRICANE WARNING 246
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREAS: SUBTROPIC AND FORTIES
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM 950HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0 SOUTH 177.
4 EAST AT 150600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 32.0S 177.4E AT 150600 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EASING TO 70
KNOTS BY 151800 UTC AND THEN EASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 160600 UTC.
PHENOMENAL SEA EASING TO HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
SWELL.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 320 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 280 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH VERY ROUGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
SWELL.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 35.6S 179.9E AT 151800 UTC
AND NEAR 38.4S 177.6W AT 160600 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 243.

NNNN

.Further warnings here:

METAREA X

METAREA XIV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (NT): Tropical LOW 2: Tropical cyclone impact between Port Hedland & Northwest Cape possible from Thursday – TCWC Perth – Published 100315 1553z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Low 2

Tropical cyclone impact between Port Hedland and Northwest Cape possible from Thursday – TCWC Perth

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

QLD NT

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 8:40 pm WST Tuesday 10 March 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 3.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical cyclone impact between Port Hedland and Northwest Cape possible from Thursday.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: Port Hedland to Coral Bay.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm WST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 110 kilometres of 14.3 degrees South, 116.3 degrees East , 720 kilometres north of Karratha and 880 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth .
Movement: east southeast at 8 kilometres per hour .

Hazards:

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are not expected on Tuesday or Wednesday but may develop between Karratha and Exmouth on Thursday afternoon. If the system tracks a little more to the east then gales may develop as far east as Port Hedland.

Heavy rainfall is likely to develop over the western Pilbara and northern Gascoyne districts as the system approaches and may lead to flooding. Please refer to the latest Flood Watches and Warnings for more details ¿ http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/.

Recommended Action:

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present.
Communities between Port Hedland and Coral Bay should listen for the next advice.

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm March 10 tropical low 14.3S 116.3E 110
+6hr 2 am March 11 tropical low 14.7S 116.5E 220
+12hr 8 am March 11 tropical low 15.1S 116.6E 240
+18hr 2 pm March 11 tropical low 15.6S 116.7E 260
+24hr 8 pm March 11 tropical low 16.2S 116.6E 280
+36hr 8 am March 12 1 17.7S 116.2E 315
+48hr 8 pm March 12 2 19.4S 115.4E 335
+60hr 8 am March 13 2 21.1S 114.4E 370
+72hr 8 pm March 13 2 22.9S 113.8E 400

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am WST Wednesday

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Further warnings here:

METAREA X

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

MASCARENES ISLANDS/MADAGASCAR: Tropical Cyclone HALIBA (15S, 11) 09/1200Z nr 21.8S 55.2E, moving ESE 8 Kts – Updated 090315 1640z (GMT/UTC)

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM (12) (RSMC La Reunion)

 TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (HALIBA) (JTWC)

MASCARENES ISLANDS SHOULD STILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM

 – (RSMC La Reunion)

si201516_5day 

si201516_sat_anim

ZCZC 549

ZCZC 549
WTIO30 FMEE 091222
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/12/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (HALIBA)
2.A POSITION 2015/03/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/03/10 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/03/10 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/03/11 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/03/11 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/03/12 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/03/12 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/03/13 12 UTC: 31.4 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2015/03/14 12 UTC: 35.1 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+ AND CI=3.0-.
HALIBA HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z AND PROBABLY REACHED ITS INTENSITY PEAK (MAX W
INDS AT ABOUT 45KT), TEMPORARILY SHOWING A RAGGED EYE AT 08Z .
AFTER THAT, COULD PATTERN HAD RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES A SEVERE IMPACT OF THE
WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-EASTWARDS WITHIN A WEST TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL HIGHS.
WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND EXPERIENCING BY THAT TIME SOME DEEP STRUCTURE CHANGES WITH A LARGER AND MORE ASYMMETRICAL WIND FIELDS SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM MAY LOOSE ITS PURE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESUME ITS SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITH AN ONGOING EXTRATROP PROCESS.
GIVEN THE ONGOING AND EXPECTED IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS, INHABITANT OF THIS AREA SHOULD STILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
NNNN

La Reunion

B_q3FKVU0AE3dbt.jpg large

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1615.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/16S_090530sams.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
090600Z — NEAR 21.3S 53.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 53.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 22.2S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 23.1S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 24.0S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 24.9S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 26.3S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 29.2S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 54.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDGET
SYSTEM WITH A SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND ON RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC HALIBA IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGE WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALLOWING TC 16S TO MODERATELY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS, PEAKING AT 55 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS, THE COMBINED EFFECT OF
INCREASING VWS AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z AND 100900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 091221
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2015 AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 09/03/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (HALIBA) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXIST WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/03/10 AT 00 UTC:
22.6 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2015/03/10 AT 12 UTC:
23.5 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

Further warnings here:

METAREA VII

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