East Pacific/ Mexico: Tropical Storm ADRIAN (1E) 10/1600Z nr 10.3N 92.7W, moving NW at 06kt (JTWC) -Updated 10 May 2017 1840z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Adrian (1E)

Adrian is expected to gradually strengthen and reach
hurricane force Saturday while generally moving NW through
Saturday..
(NHC Miami FL 10/1540Z)

Scroll down for Hurricane Advisory

(Image: @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 01E (Adrian) Warning #04
Issued at 10/1600Z

01E_101200sair adrian 10ep0117 JTWC 10 Adrian

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 101600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 10.1N 92.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 92.5W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 10.8N 93.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 11.4N 94.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 11.9N 95.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 12.2N 96.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 12.7N 97.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z — 13.0N 97.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 13.0N 97.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
101600Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 92.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1920 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102200Z, 110400Z, 111000Z AND 111600Z.
//
NNNN

National Hurricane Center – Miami FL

143603_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind nhc 10

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 101441 CCA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Adrian Advisory Number 4…Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012017
1000 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017

Corrected for headline

…ADRIAN SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…10.4N 92.7W
ABOUT 435 MI…700 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Adrian was
located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Adrian is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a slow
northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the
next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NE Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 10 May, 2017 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ADRIAN is currently located near 9.5 N 92.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). ADRIAN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 93 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

TSR Adrian 10

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm3 NHC 10

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 101430

WTPZ21 KNHC 101430 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012017
1500 UTC WED MAY 10 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 92.7W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 0NE 0SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 92.7W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 92.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 10.8N 93.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…40NE 40SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 11.4N 94.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 11.9N 95.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT…20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT…60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 12.2N 96.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT…30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 12.7N 97.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT…40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 13.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 13.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101546
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1540 UTC Wed May 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…
Tropical Storm Adrian is centered near 10.4N 92.7W at 10/1500 UTC
or about 380 nm SSE of Salina Cruz Mexico moving NW at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is from 10N to 13N between 93W and
95W. Scattered moderate is elsewhere from 09N to 15N between 91W
and 97W. Adrian is expected to gradually strengthen and reach
hurricane force Saturday while generally moving NW through
Saturday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details.

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 10N89W then from
11N96W to low pres 1008 MB 10N103W to 07N106W to 05N116W. ITCZ
from 05N116W to 06N126W to 04N135W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N to 06N between 78W and 82W…from 02N to
07N between 87W and 94W…from 03N to 08N between 107W and
126W…and from 03N to 07N between 129W and 139W.

…DISCUSSION…

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO…
See the special features section for information on Tropical
Storm Adrian which is forecast to approach the offshore waters
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later in the week.

Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across most of the Gulf of
California. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds prevail N of 27N W of
the Baja California Peninsula. Moderate NW winds prevail across
the remainder of the forecast area NW of Manzanillo…except
occasional fresh NW winds in the vicinity of Cabo San Lucas.
Seas range from 5-7 ft in the offshore waters off Baja
California Norte…and 1-3 ft across the Gulf of California…
except 3-4 ft S of 24N. Seas in the 4-7 ft range are noted
elsewhere. Little change in marine conditions is expected through
the end of the week…with the exception of Tropical Storm Adrian
moving into the southern-most zone late Thursday into early
Thursday night. Otherwise…by Friday night into Saturday…the
pressure gradient off southern California will increase
supporting strong NW winds which will build NW swell to 8-12 ft
in offshore waters N of 25N.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR…
See the special features section for information on Tropical
Storm Adrian east of Central America.

Otherwise…mainly gentle to moderate onshore winds will prevail
during the daytime hours…with gentle to moderate offshore
winds during the overnight hours through the next several days.
Combined seas of 4-7 ft will also dominate the waters through the
remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA…
An area of high pressure with ridge axis extending from 29N147W
to 21N118W is expected to continue weakening and dissipate as a
cold front approaches the NW part of the discussion area. The
front will stall and dissipate from 30N132W to 27N140W by
Thursday night. High pressure will build in behind the front…
increasing trades and resultant seas slightly by the end of the
week. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail
elsewhere N of the ITCZ. Decaying combined seas of 6-8 ft are
across this same area.

$$
HUFFMAN

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Fiji: Tropical Cyclone ELLA (19P) 101500Z near 14.4S 176.8W, moving WNW 11 kt (JTWC) – Updated 10 May 2017 1620z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone ELLA (19P)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 10/1200Z IS 16 FEET. (JTWC)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh1917 JTWC 10

19P_101200sair ella 10

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 14.3S 176.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 176.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 14.6S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 15.0S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 15.4S 179.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 15.5S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 15.1S 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z — 14.5S 176.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 176.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF AVATA, SAMOA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FURTHER CONSOLIDATION WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A
100950Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 50 KNOTS IS
ALSO BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE IN AGREEMENT WITH
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45 TO 55 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS
NEAR 29 CELSIUS AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY A POOR
OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT. CURRENTLY TC ELLA IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD GUIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. TC ELLA WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST SLIGHTLY ERODING THE STEERING RIDGE AND
INTRODUCING MODERATE WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TURNS
TO THE NORTHWEST AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK MOTION UP TO TAU 36.
THEREAFTER, MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE MIXED AS TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE WESTWARD OR TURN SOUTHWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE
TROUGH. DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (FIJI)

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone ELLA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 66 issued 1320 UTC Wednesday 10 May 2017

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone ELLA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm May 10 2 14.3S 176.1W 130
+6hr 6 pm May 10 2 14.5S 176.9W 155
+12hr 12 am May 11 2 14.8S 177.7W 185
+18hr 6 am May 11 2 15.1S 178.4W 215
+24hr 12 pm May 11 2 15.3S 178.9W 240
+36hr 12 am May 12 2 15.8S 179.8W 300
+48hr 12 pm May 12 2 16.0S 179.5E 360
+60hr 12 am May 13 2 16.2S 178.8E 450
+72hr 12 pm May 13 2 16.2S 178.1E 535

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
ELLA
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 2:14am on Thursday the 11th of May 2017 (Local Time)

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14
DECIMAL 3 SOUTH 176 DECIMAL 1 WEST OR ABOUT 440 KM NORTHEAST OF VANUA
BALAVU AT MIDNIGHT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 16
KM/HR TOWARDS FIJI. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO
HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF 95KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUST TO 130KM/HR.
ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, LAU AND LOMAIVITI
GROUP FROM TOMORROW.

FOR LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP, VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS:
EXPECT STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 45 KM/HR WITH
GUSTS TO 80 KM/HR, EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER TO DAMAGING GALE
FORCE WINDS OF 85KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 110KM/HR FROM TOMORROW.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO RAIN AND BECOME FREQUENT AND HEAVY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TOMORROW.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, BECOMING STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 45 KM/HR AND GUSTS TO 80 KM/HR EXPECTED
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. FINE APART FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SHOWERS BECOMING FREQUENT AND HEAVY FROM TOMORROW
NIGHT.
The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
FOR NORTHERN VANUA LEVU, LAU, KORO SEA, VATU-I-RA AND KADAVU PASSAGE:
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. ROUGH
SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST SWELLS. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER
TO GALE FORCE WINDS OF 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS WITH HIGH SEAS
FROM TOMORROW. MODERATE TO HEAVY SOUTHEAST SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS:
SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST SWELLS. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM LATER TOMORROW WITH ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA
WILL BE ISSUED AT AROUND 102000UTC OR EARLIER.

SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 10 May, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ELLA is currently located near 14.3 S 176.4 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). ELLA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mata-Utu (13.3 S, 176.2 W)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Fiji
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Naduri (16.4 S, 179.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

201719P ELLA TSR

DoctorAdvice4U ELLA FIJI

(Image: DoctorAdvice4U)

sp201719_5day ELLA wunderground 10

(5 Day Track Map from @wunderground)

sp201719_sat_anim 10

(Image: derground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

STORM WARNING 068 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 101310 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3
SOUTH 176.1 WEST AT 101200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 14.3S 176.1W AT 101200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT 9 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
60 KNOTS BY 111200 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 14.8S 177.7W AT 110000 UTC
AND NEAR 15.3S 178.9W AT 111200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 066.

GALE WARNING 069 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 101313 UTC.

EX TROPICAL CYCLONE DONA CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1S 168.4E AT
101200UTC. POSITION POOR. EX TROPICAL CYCLONE DONA MOVING SOUTH AT 03 KNOTS.

EXPECT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UPTO 35 KNOTS.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 067.

Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
ELLA
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 2:14am on Thursday the 11th of May 2017 (Local Time)

EXTRACT

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
FOR NORTHERN VANUA LEVU, LAU, KORO SEA, VATU-I-RA AND KADAVU PASSAGE:
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. ROUGH
SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST SWELLS. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER
TO GALE FORCE WINDS OF 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS WITH HIGH SEAS
FROM TOMORROW. MODERATE TO HEAVY SOUTHEAST SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS:
SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST SWELLS. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM LATER TOMORROW WITH ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA
WILL BE ISSUED AT AROUND 102000UTC OR EARLIER.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

New Caledonia/ Vanuatu: Severe Tropical Cyclone Donna (18P) 091200Z position near 21.4S 168.4E , moving SE 11 kt (RSMC Nadi) – Updated 09 May 2017 1500z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Donna (18P)

Currently impacting New Caledonia

(= CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 28 FEET.(JTWC)

Scroll down for HURRICANE WARNING for shipping

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone DONNA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 57 issued 1319 UTC Tuesday 9 May 2017

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Severe Tropical Cyclone DONNA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm May 9 3 21.4S 168.4E 165
+6hr 6 pm May 9 3 22.1S 168.7E 195
+12hr 12 am May 10 2 22.9S 169.1E 220
+18hr 6 am May 10 2 23.7S 169.5E 250
+24hr 12 pm May 10 2 24.8S 170.3E 280
+36hr 12 am May 11 2 27.4S 172.2E 340
+48hr 12 pm May 11 2 31.0S 175.1E 400
+60hr 12 am May 12 2 34.6S 178.9E 485
+72hr 12 pm May 12 2 37.5S 177.0W 570

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A27 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 091350 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 975HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4S 168.4E AT
091200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 11
KTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 65 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTER WITH LG SURROUND, YIELDS
DT=4.5, MET=5.0 AND PT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING,
T4.5/4.5/W2.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 10000 UTC 22.9S 169.1E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 24.8S 170.3E MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 27.4S 172.2E MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 31.0S 175.1E MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 091400 UTC.

SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 9 May, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone DONNA is currently located near 20.1 S 167.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). DONNA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DONNA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Caledonia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tadine (21.5 S, 167.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vanuatu
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Noum’ea (22.2 S, 166.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Kone (21.0 S, 164.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Vila (17.7 S, 168.3 E)
        probability for TS is 50% currently
    Koumac (20.5 S, 164.3 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Donna) Warning #23
Issued at 09/0900z

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
090600Z — NEAR 20.1S 167.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 167.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 21.6S 168.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 23.2S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 25.4S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 28.4S 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 167.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH WARMING
CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A RAGGED EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 090432Z 91 GHZ
SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED
ON THE LOWER ENVELOP OF MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5 (90 TO 102 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AND WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE
WEST IS INTRODUCING STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THUS IMPEDING THE
POLEWARD EXHAUST CHANNEL AND WILL STEADILY INCREASE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC DONNA IS ALSO DRIFTING INTO
COOLER WATERS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
TC DONNA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC
REGION OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TC DONNA WILL
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Other

Hurricane wind damage

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/animations/images/hurricane_winddamage.swf

Map of Vanuatu with its capital Port Vila, located on its third largest island. (From Wikipedia)

FBC logo

Cyclone Donna intensifies to Category 4

18:41 6 May 2017 (Local Time)

Taken from/By: FBC News
Report by: Akosita Talei

Severe Tropical Cyclone Donna has now intensified to a category four system with central pressure of 965 heta pascal destructive hurricane force winds estimated at about 90 knots close to the centre.

TC Donna was located 700km northwest of Port Vila or 1560km west-northwest of Nadi at mid-day today.

Fiji Meteorology Director Ravindra Kumar says it’s moving west-southwest at about 13km/hr and gradually turning southwards and expected to track towards New Caledonia and Southern Vanuatu.

He adds that although TC Donna still lies in favourable environment for further intensification, it’s expected to encounter unfavourable environmental conditions as it turns and tracks in a southerly direction.

He says Fiji is not directly threatened by TC Donna, however associated strong winds will affect Fiji waters and a strong wind warning remains in force for all Fiji waters.

Expect rough seas with east to southeast winds 20 to 25 knots, gusting to 30 knots.

Strong wind warning remains in force for all Fiji waters and Occasional showers expected. Isolated heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING 032 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 091308 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4 SOUTH
168.4 EAST AT 091200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 21.4S 168.4E AT 091200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.9S 169.1E AT 10000 UTC
AND NEAR 24.8S 168.5E AT 101200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 053.

END

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia/ Indonesia: Tropical Cyclone Frances (29U, 17S) 27/1200Z nr 11.0S 128.3E, moving WSW 10 kt (Darwin TCWC) – Published 27 Apr 2017 1506z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Frances (29U, 17S)

Intensity Category 1 Cyclone Frances is moving southwest across the Timor Sea tonight and is slowly intensifying (BOM NT TCWC)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000ZIS 10 FEET (JTWC)

IDD20150

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2

Issued at 10:54 pm ACST [9:24 pm AWST] on Thursday 27 April 2017

Headline:

Category 1 Cyclone Frances is moving southwest across the Timor Sea tonight and is slowly intensifying.

Areas Affected:

Warning Zone

Kuri Bay to Wyndham, not including Wyndham.

Watch Zone

None.

Cancelled Zone

None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Frances at 9:30 pm ACST [8:00 pm AWST]:

Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 11.0 degrees South 128.3 degrees East, estimated to be 235 kilometres west of Pirlangimpi and 410 kilometres north northeast of Kalumburu.

Movement: west southwest at 19 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Frances is expected to intensify as it moves southwest through the Timor Sea tonight, possibly developing into a Category 2 system early on Friday. The cyclone is expected to remain over water as it heads towards the Indian Ocean, however If it takes a more southerly track peripheral gales may affect the north Kimberley coast later on Friday.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal parts between Kuri Bay and Wyndham, not including Wyndham, later on Friday.

Tides between Kalumburu and Wyndham are likely to rise above normal high tide mark with very rough seas and flooding of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present.

People in the Kimberley are advised to stay up to date with weather forecasts and warnings.

People between Kuri Bay and Wyndham should listen for the next advice.

People needing DFES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation call 000.

For more safety tips visit http://www.dfes.wa.gov.au.

Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am ACST Friday 28 April [12:30 am AWST Friday 28 April].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

=================================================================================

IDJ21031
CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS AND METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) In Jakarta
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued by the TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER JAKARTA
In: 17:05 EST 27/04/2017
Tropical Cyclone FRANCES
The condition of the date 27/04/2017 at 13:00 PM EST:
Position: 10, 1LS, 129, 4BT (about 630 km east of Kupang)
The direction of motion: West-Southwest, the speed of 8 knots (15 km/h) and move towards the region of Indonesia
Speed
Maximum wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
24-hour predictions, date 28/04/2017 at 13:00 PM EST:
Position: 11, 2LS, 126, 6BT (about 340 km east southeast of Kupang)
The direction of motion: moving away from the southwestern region of Indonesia
Speed
Wind maximum: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Prediction of 48 hours, the date of 29/04/2017 at 13:00 PM EST:
Position: 12, 2LS, 123, 5BT
The direction of motion: moving away from the southwestern region of Indonesia
Speed
Wind maximum: 40 knots (75 km/h)
72 hours predictions, date 30/04/2017 at 13:00 PM EST:
Position: 13, 0LS, 121, 0BT
The direction of motion: moving away from the southwestern region of Indonesia
Speed
Maximum: wind 20 knots (35 km/h)
IMPACT ON THE WEATHER IN INDONESIA:
Tropical cyclone FRANCES gave impact on weather conditions in the region of Indonesia in the form of:
Rain with medium intensity up to thick on the territory of NTT and the southern and Southeast Maluku.
Waves with a height of 1.252.5 meters in territorial waters south of Sumba, Bali Strait, Lombok Strait, Selat Alas southern waters of the island of Savu sea, Savu sea, Southern Ocean Waters up to Sermata Islands Sea, Arafuru Leti Central and Eastern parts, and the Indian Ocean south of the NTB.
Waves with a height of 2.5-4 meters in territorial waters south of Kupang, Timor Sea, Arafuru Sea and parts of the West.
IDJ21031
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

BULETIN INFORMASI SIKLON TROPIS

Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 17:05 WIB 27/04/2017

Siklon Tropis FRANCES

Kondisi tanggal 27/04/2017 pukul 13:00 WIB :
Posisi : 10,1LS, 129,4BT (sekitar 630 km sebelah timur Kupang)
Arah Gerak : barat barat daya, kecepatan 8 knots (15 km/jam) bergerak menuju wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 35 knots (65 km/jam)

Prediksi 24 jam, tanggal 28/04/2017 pukul 13:00 WIB :
Posisi : 11,2LS, 126,6BT (sekitar 340 km sebelah timur tenggara Kupang)
Arah Gerak : Barat daya bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 55 knots (100 km/jam)

Prediksi 48 jam, tanggal 29/04/2017 pukul 13:00 WIB :
Posisi : 12,2LS, 123,5BT
Arah Gerak : Barat daya bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 40 knots (75 km/jam)

Prediksi 72 jam, tanggal 30/04/2017 pukul 13:00 WIB :
Posisi : 13,0LS, 121,0BT
Arah Gerak : Barat daya bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 20 knots (35 km/jam)

DAMPAK TERHADAP CUACA DI INDONESIA :
Siklon tropis FRANCES memberikan dampak terhadap kondisi cuaca di wilayah Indonesia berupa :
– Hujan dengan intensitas sedang hingga lebat di wilayah NTT dan Maluku bagian selatan dan Tenggara.
– Gelombang dengan ketinggian 1.25 – 2.5 meter di wilayah Perairan selatan Sumba, Selat Bali, Selat Lombok, Selat Alas bagian selatan, Perairan Pulau Sawu, Laut Sawu bagian selatan, Perairan Kepulauan Sermata hingga Leti, Laut Arafuru bagian tengah dan timur, dan Samudera Hindia selatan NTB.
– Gelombang dengan ketinggian 2.5 – 4 meter di wilayah Perairan selatan Kupang, Laut Timor, dan Laut Arafuru bagian barat.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Google Earth Overlay

 

WTXS31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260251ZAPR2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
270000Z — NEAR 9.6S 130.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 130.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 10.2S 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 10.8S 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 11.6S 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z — 12.2S 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 13.0S 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 13.4S 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 9.7S 129.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TS) 17S (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. A 270102Z ASCAT BULLSEYE SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC WITH 35
KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE
CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER PASS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG DIVERGENT
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TS 17S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD
OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS
WESTWARD. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE AND LEAD TO ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER THE FIRST 36 HOURS BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE
CYCLONE WEAKENS. THIS DIVERGENCE IN GUIDANCE LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z AND 280300Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 260300).//
NNNN

S Indian Ocean: TSR Storm Alert issued at 27 Apr, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FRANCES is currently located near 10.9 S 128.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). FRANCES is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kalumburu (14.2 S, 126.6 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA10 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING_DARWIN / 1339

WTAU03 ADRM 271339 RRB
WINDS TO 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.
AT 1200 UTC 28 APRIL: WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF 11.8 SOUTH 124.7
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA.
WINDS TO 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO NTTCWC.BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO
+6189203829
OR SATELLITE USING SAC1241 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION BURUM 312 .OR
212 AS
APPROPRIATE. VIA PERTH.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 1930 UTC 27 APRIL 2017.

DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA – NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1404 UTC 27/04/2017
Name: Tropical Cyclone Frances
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 11.0S
Longitude: 128.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [241 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 27/1800: 11.2S 127.4E: 040 [080]: 050 [095]: 993
+12: 28/0000: 11.5S 126.4E: 055 [100]: 050 [095]: 992
+18: 28/0600: 11.7S 125.6E: 065 [125]: 055 [100]: 990
+24: 28/1200: 11.8S 124.7E: 080 [145]: 055 [100]: 990
+36: 29/0000: 12.4S 122.9E: 100 [180]: 045 [085]: 996
+48: 29/1200: 12.8S 121.5E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 1000
+60: 30/0000: 13.1S 120.3E: 140 [255]: 030 [055]: 1002
+72: 30/1200: 13.2S 119.3E: 155 [290]: 025 [045]: 1005
+96: 01/1200: 13.2S 118.1E: 200 [370]: 025 [045]: 1004
+120: 02/1200: 12.8S 116.7E: 290 [535]: 025 [045]: 1006
REMARKS:
The 12Z position of Tropical Cyclone Frances was made with reasonable confidence
based on recent microwave passes and infra-red imagery.

Intensity was based on a shear pattern with low level centre having moved
underneath the dense overcast, giving a DT of 3.5. Development over the last 24
hours has been D+, giving a MET of 3.0, PAT of 3.0 with Final T at 3.0. Ascat
pass at 0103 UTC indicated winds of 30-35 knots on the southern side.

The cyclone is located in a moist environment in a diffluent upper-level outflow
pattern just north of the upper level ridge. This is creating strong upper-level
divergence with twin outflow channels seen in recent satellite imagery. Earlier
in the day the system moved into a more favourable low shear environment. This,
in conjunction with the arrival of a strong east to southeasterly surge from a
developing ridge over Australia, has sustained continued development of the
cyclone.

Model consensus suggest the cyclone will move towards the southwest over the
next few days due to mid level ridges located to the south and east. On this
southwesterly track, the system is expected to remain in a low sheared
environment and in a diffluent upper pattern, with even a chance of rapid
development. There is a small chance though that the system could turn more
towards the west into an increasingly sheared environment. Dry air intrusion may
also limit development in the short term.

From later Saturday, the cyclone is expected to move into a higher shear
environment, due to a mid to upper level trough approaching from the west, with
dry air entrainment weakening the system to below Tropical Cyclone strength.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/2000 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Philippines: Tropical Depression MUIFA/DANTE 03W 27/1500Z position nr 17.3N 135.1E, moving NW 11 kt (JTWC) – Published 27 Apr 2017 1545z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression MUIFA (03W )

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wp0317 JTWC MUIFA

WTPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 012
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
271200Z — NEAR 17.0N 134.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 005 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 134.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 18.4N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 20.1N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 135.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 489 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.
//
NNNN

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 270600

WTJP21 RJTD 270600
WARNING 270600.
WARNING VALID 280600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1701 MUIFA (1701) 1002 HPA
AT 15.7N 134.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 17.0N 135.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 18.8N 137.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 23.3N 144.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping from PAGASA

WTPH RPMM 271200

TTT WARNING 7-FINAL

AT 1200 27 APRIL TROPICAL DEPRESSION {MUIFA} (1701) DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 281200 ONE NINE POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND UNLESS RE-ENTRY OCCURS THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING FROM PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm #ARLENE 21/0900Z nr 40.0N 48.0W, moving W 27 kt (NHC FL) – Updated 21 Apr 2017 1325 (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm ARLENE

National Hurricane Center (NHC)

121705_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind arlene nhc

000
WTNT31 KNHC 210832
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012017
500 AM AST Fri Apr 21 2017

…ARLENE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC…
…STILL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…40.0N 48.0W
ABOUT 1135 MI…1825 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 31 MPH…50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.33 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was
located near latitude 40.0 North, longitude 48.0 West. Arlene is
moving toward the west near 31 mph (50 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected, and Arlene is forecast to
become absorbed by a large extratropical low and dissipate later
today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
END

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0832

WTNT21 KNHC 210832
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012017
0900 UTC FRI APR 21 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 48.0W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 27 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….200NE 100SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 48.0W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 46.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.5N 50.4W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 0NE 0SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N 48.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Myanmar/ Bay Of Bengal: Tropical Depression 92B (Future CS Maarutha)150300Z 12.5N 88.3E, moving NNE 10.8kt (RSMC New Delhi)- Published 15 Apr 2017 1240z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression 92B

(Future Cyclonic Storm Maarutha)

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 15-04-2017


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 15TH APRIL 2017 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 15TH APRIL 2017
THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 20 KMPH DURING PAST 3 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 HRS UTC OF TODAY, THE 15TH APRIL, 2017 OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 12.5º N AND LONGITUDE 88.3 ºE, ABOUT 500 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MAYA BANDAR (ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS) AND 950 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KYAUKPYU (MYANMAR). THE SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS MOST LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST BETWEEN SITTWE (48062) AND SANDWAY (48080) BY FORENOON OF 17TH.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY IS T 1.5. THE CONVECTION HAS ORGANISED DURING PAST 12 HRS AND SHOWS CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH WELL DEFINED WRAPPING FROM EASTERN SECTOR. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIES OVER SOUTH AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 9.0 DEGREE NORTH TO 17.0 DEGREE NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.5 DEGREE EAST TO 95.0 DEGREE EAST. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 70 DEGREE CELCIUS. A SHIP LOCATED NEAR 11.4/91.9 REPORTED MSLP OF 1003.8 HPA AND WIND OF 1700/14 KTS. AVAILABLE SHIP AND BUOY DATA AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE TO BE ABOUT 1001 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS. MULTI-SATELLITE DERIVED WIND PRODUCTS SUGGEST HIGHER WINDS IN THE EASTERN SECTOR.
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND THE REGION OF DEPRESSION IS 30-320C. IT DECREASES TOWARDS NORTH MYANMAR COAST BECOMING 28-290C. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 100 KJ/CM2. IT ALSO DECREASES TOWARDS NORTH MYANMAR COAST BECOMING 60-80 KJ/CM2. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED DURING PAST 3 HOURS AND IS ABOUT 20-25 KNOTS (HIGH) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ABOUT 150 x 10-6 S-1 AND CONVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30 x 10-5 S-1 .THERE IS FAVOURABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LYING TO THE SOUHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 40 x 10-5 S-1 THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AT 200 HPA LEVEL RUNS ALONG 100N. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX LIES IN PHASE 7 WITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT WILL MOVE TO PHASE 8 DURING NEXT 3 DAYS WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING AMPLITUDE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) IMAGERY INDICATE INCURSION OF WARM MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. HENCE CONSIDERING ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES, WHILE OUTFLOW AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, VORTICITY AND TPW ARE FAVOURABLE, MJO AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE UNFAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AND THE SYSTEM MAY REACH UPTO THE INTENSITY OF DEEP DEPRESSION/CYCLONIC STORM.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEPRESSION INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION/ CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HRS. DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERING THE MOVEMENT, MOST OF THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARDS NORTH MYANMAR COAST DURING NEXT 48 HRS.
(M.MOHAPATRA)
HEAD-RSMC, NEW DELHI

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

ABIO10 PGTW 150200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/150200Z-151800ZAPR2017//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150051ZAPR2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 87.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 600
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 142121Z AMSU-B
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE LLCC HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AND IS NOW CIRCULAR IN SHAPE WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY
IN THE NORTHEAST WRAPPING IN. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN A FAIR ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25
KNOTS) OFFSET BY VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS)
AND DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A
(WTIO21 PGTW 150100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN

Other Sources

N Indian Ocean: TSR Storm Alert issued at 15 Apr, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ONE is currently located near 14.3 N 90.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). ONE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Myanmar
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cheduba (18.8 N, 93.7 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Sandoway (18.5 N, 94.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kyaukpyu (19.4 N, 93.6 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Myanaung (18.3 N, 95.3 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Bassein (16.7 N, 94.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Henzada (17.6 N, 95.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Sittwe (20.1 N, 93.1 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

DoctorAdvice4u (@RoshinRowjee) | Twitter

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 151115
SPECIAL GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 0600 HOURS FROM 0600 UTC 15 APRIL 2017.

PARTI:-NO STORM WARNING:-

THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
MOVED NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 28 KMPH DURING PAST 06
HOURS
AND LAY CENTRED AT 1130 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE 15TH APRIL, 2017 OVER
EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 13.2
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 89.0 DEG E, ABOUT 420 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAYA
BANDAR (ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS) AND 840 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
KYAUKPYU (MYANMAR). THE SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER
INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS MOST LIKELY TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST BETWEEN SITTWE
AND SANDWAY (MYANMAR) BY FORENOON OF 17TH APRIL.

PART:-II:
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)
———————— ——————-
ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION:
1)W OF 56 DEG E : S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 56 DEG E TO 75 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N: S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 56 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
4)E OF 75 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N; NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/15
KTS TO THE E OF 78 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:
1)E OF 58 DEG E TO 74 DEG E AND S OF 6 DEG N: :SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 60 DEG E TO 75 DEG E AND S OF 7 DEG N: :6-4 NM(.)
2)REST AREA:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:
1) E OF 75 DEG E 0.5-2 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 0.5-1 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:
1)W OF 58 DEG E: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 58 DEG E TO 65 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
E/SE-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 58 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 58 DEG E TO 63 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
4)E OF 63 DEG E TO 65 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
5)E OF 65 DEG E TO 75 DEG E :NW/W-LYNW/W-LY 05/15 KTS(.)
6)E OF 75 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N: NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS
BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E OF 78 DEG E(.)
7)E OF 75 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: W-LY 05/15 KTS
II)WEATHER:
1)E OF 64 DEG E AND S OF 6 DEG N ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 64 DEG E AND S OF 6 DEG N :8-6 NM(.)
3)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT
1)W OF 75 DEG E: 0.5-1 MTR(.)
2)E OF 75 DEG E: 0.5-3 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION
S/SW-LY 05/15 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 62 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT 0.5-2 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION
1)W OF 65 DEG E AND S OF 20 DEG N:ANTICYCLONIC 05/15 KTS(.)
2)N OF 20 DEG N: S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 65 DEG E: N/NW-LY 10/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E
AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:
1)CYCLONIC :20/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:
1)E OF 85 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 85 DEG E : :3-2 NM (.)
2)W OF 85 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT 3-4 MTR
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION :CYCLONIC :20/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:
1)W OF 84 DEG E :FAIRLY WIDESPREAD(.)
2)E OF 84 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)W OF 84 DEG E :4-3 NM(.)
2)E OF 84 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 3-4 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION :CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER
1)E OF 83 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)W OF 83 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 83 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)
2)W OF 83 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT 3-4 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER
1)E OF 83 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)W OF 83 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 83 DEG E : 3-2 NM
2)W OF 83 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:3-4 NM
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines: Tropical Depression Two/ Crising (02W) 141500Z position nr 10.7N 128.1E, moving WNW 11kt (JTWC) – Published 14 Apr 2017 1442z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Two (02W)

(TD Crising in Philippines)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: TSR)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 02W (Two) Warning #02
Issued at 14/1500Z

WTPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
141200Z — NEAR 10.6N 128.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 128.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z — 11.1N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 11.6N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 12.2N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 13.2N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 128.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 141200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND
151500Z.//
NNNN

===============================================================================

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST)SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #2
FOR:Tropical Depression Crising
Tropical Cyclone: WARNING

ISSUED AT:8:00 PM, 14 April 2017

Tropical depression CRISING has maintained its strength as it moves in a west-northwest direction

  • Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to occasionally heavy within the 250 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.
  • Expected to make landfall over Samar island tomorrow afternoon.
  • Residents in areas under Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
  • Possible inclusion of Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, and Burias island under TCWS 1 in the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
PAGASA Track as of05:00 M, 14 April 2017 Satellite Image
Location of eye/center: At 7:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression “CRISING” was estimated based on all available data at 340 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (10.6 °N, 128.8 °E)
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 45 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 55 kph
Forecast Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 22 kph
Forecast Positions:
  • 24 Hour( Tomorrow afternoon): In the vicinity of Tinambacan Norte, Samar(12.1°N, 124.5°E)
  • 48 Hour(Sunday afternoon):95 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro(13.3°N, 120.3°E)
  • 72 Hour(Monday afternoon): 250 km West Southwest of Iba, Zambales(14.4°N, 117.9°E)
  • 96 Hour(Tuesday afternoon):320 km West Northwest of Iba, Zambales(16.0°N, 117.1°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL
TCWS Luzon Visayas Mindanao Impacts of the wind
#1
(30-60kph expected in 36 hrs)
Sorsogon, Albay, and Masbate including Ticao island Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, and northern portion of Leyte. ->Very light or no damage to high risk structures,
->Light damage to medium to low risk structures
->Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
->Twigs of small trees may be broken.
->Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

Severe Weather Bulletin in PDF file

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

PDF iconPAGASA Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping in PDF

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Norfolk Island/ NZ /New Caledonia: Tropical Cyclone COOK 16P 111500Z position nr 27.0S 168.8E, moving SE 13 kt (JTWC) – Updated 11 Apr 2017 1453z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone COOK (16P)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 15 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: Apr 11, 2017, 12:00:00 AM GMT @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 16P (Cook) Warning #08 Final Warning
Issued at 11/1500Z

WTPS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
111200Z — NEAR 26.6S 168.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 168.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 28.3S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 168.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM SOUTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 111141Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE SHOWING AN
INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). TC COOK IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC REGION, AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z
IS 15 FEET.//
NNNN

===========================================================================

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 110152 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK CENTRE [980HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.6S 166.0E AT 110000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 VIS
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SECTOR FROM
NORTH THROUGH EAST TO WEST.
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
IN PAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS ALSO DECREASED. CYCLONE LIES IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH WITH
MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 26-27 DEGREES CELCIUS. COOK IS
BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC ABOUT 1/3
DEGRESS INTO STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT YIELDS, DT=3.5 MET 3.5 AND
PT=3.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24HRS. CI HELD
HIGH DUE TO CI RULES FOR WEAKENING.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH FURTHER WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 26.1S 167.9E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 27.4S 170.1E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 28.9S 172.5E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON COOK.

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 0346 UTC 11-Apr-2017

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

Tropical Cyclone Cook (980hPa, Category 2) was located near 24.6S
166E at 11/0000UTC today or about 140nm south of Noumea, New
Caledonia, moving south at 10 knots. Maximum winds near the centre
were estimated to be 55 knots with gales extending up to 120nm from
the centre.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC 12-Apr-2017

Tropical Cyclone Cook (980hPa, Category 2) was located near 24.6S
166E, or about bout 140nm south of Noumea, New Caledonia, at
11/0000UTC today and is currently moving south out of the Tropics.

Tropical depression, TD19F, (994hPa) was analysed near 26.0S 169.3W,
or about 430nm southeast of Nukualofa, Tonga at 11/0000UTC today. The
system has low potential to develop into a TC, and is expected to
drift slowly northwards towards Niue over the next 24 hours.

OUTLOOK TO 1200 UTC 15-Apr-2017

TD19F is expected to track east-southeast from Thursday and lie near
southern Cook Islands, then weaken from Friday onwards.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0500 UTC Wed 12-Apr-2017

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2017

 

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 9 Apr, 2017 12:00 GMT

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Apr, 2017 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm COOK is currently located near 26.6 S 168.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). COOK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Norfolk Island
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kingston (29.1 S, 168.0 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA14 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING_SOUTH_25S / 1311

WTNZ41 NZKL 111311
GALE WARNING 279
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK 990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6 SOUTH
168.8 EAST AT 111200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 26.6S 168.8E AT 111200 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE WITH VERY
ROUGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO WEST AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 268.=

South West Pacific Marine

UPDATED

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE EQUATOR to 25S between 160E and 120W issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Apr 110800 UTC. PART 1 : WARNINGSTORM WARNING 034 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 110731 UTC. REFER TO STORM WARNING NUMBER 268 ISSUED BY RSMC WELLINGTON. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 032. ********************************************************************* ************** GALE WARNING 035 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 110847 UTC. IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 23S 174W 23S 165W 25S 175W 25S 166W,EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS OVER WATERS ONLY. AREA OF GALES SLOW MOVING. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 033. ********************************************************************* ************** PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Apr 120600 UTC. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ1 11S 160E 16S 165E 23S 169E SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ1. WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ1, EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELLS. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ2 10S 160W 08S 145W 07S 130W 07S 120W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ2. TROUGH T1 04S 160E 08S 175E 11S 179W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1. TROUGH T2 12S 176W 18S 170W 20S 168W 25S 167W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T2. TROUGH T3 09S 169W 13S 163W 16S 160W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF T3. TROUGH T4 17S 152W 21S 145W 25S 138W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T4. TROUGH T5 25S 156W 22S 149W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF T5. OUTSIDE STORM WARNING NUMBER 034 AND IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 22S AND BETWEEN 165E AND 175E, EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 15S AND BETWEEN 175E AND 135W, EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SOUTHERLY SWELLS. IN THE AREA SOUTH OF EQ AND EAST OF 135W, EXPECT MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Indian Ocean (Australia): Severe Tropical Storm ERNIE 15S 26U 07/1800Z nr 15.9S 110.4E, moving S 3 kt (Perth TCWC) – Published 07 Apr 2017 2228z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm ERNIE 15S 26U

(= CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: TSR)

IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:38 am WST on Saturday 8 April 2017
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie (Category 5) was located at 2:00 am AWST near
15.9S 110.4E,
that is 790 km southeast of Christmas Island [and 780 km north northwest of
Exmouth] and moving south at 6 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie has continued to intensify over the last 6 hours
and is a category 5 system over open waters northwest of WA. Ernie will
continue to intensify as it slowly tracks towards the south and then turn to
the west-southwest this morning and is expected to begin weakening from late
Saturday or early Sunday.

Gales are not expected on Christmas Island or the WA mainland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9 am AWST.

===============================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:3:2:24:16S110E999:11:00
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1835UTC 7 APRIL 2017

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie was centred within 15 nautical miles
of
latitude fifteen decimal nine south (15.9S)
longitude one hundred and ten decimal four east (110.4E)
Recent movement : south at 3 knots
Maximum winds : 120 knots
Central pressure: 922 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 120 knots near the centre easing to 95 knots by 1800 UTC 08
April.

Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with phenomenal seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 08 April: Within 40 nautical miles of 16.2 south 110.0 east
Central pressure 931 hPa.
Winds to 115 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 08 April: Within 65 nautical miles of 16.4 south 109.1 east
Central pressure 953 hPa.
Winds to 95 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 08 April 2017.

WEATHER PERTH

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Iceland: Hekla volcano could be ready for another eruption, measurements suggest – Published 30 Mar 2017 1730z (GMT/UTC)

Mount Hekla Volcano

“More pressure is in the magma chambers underneath the mountain than before the last two eruptions in 1991 and 2000” says geophysicist Pall Einarsson at the University of Iceland

 

Mount Hekla

“Most measurements that we have today indicate that Hekla is ready for an eruption, but we do not know what factor will set the eruption off,” says geophysicist Pall Einarsson at the University of Iceland. More pressure is in the magma chambers underneath the mountain than before the last two eruptions in 1991 and 2000. It’s however impossible to say whether a Hekla eruption is to be expected soon or not, as eruptions come without much warning and with little correlation to other volcanic or earthquake activities in South Iceland. Today marks the 70th anniversary of the greatest Hekla eruption known to man, which lasted 13 months. There have been five eruptions in Mount Hekla since 1970.

RSOE March 30 2017 12:35 PM (UTC).

“1991

On January 17th Helka violently erupted with a cloud of ash and tephra that reached an altitude of 39,360 ft. (12 km). During this eruption a summit fissure and a main crater were created and from these lava flows extended down the southeastern and northwestern slopes. Lava fountains in these craters reached a height of 984 ft. (300m). This eruption continued until March 11th when activity once again died down”. – volcano.oregonstate.edu

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

“2000

A lava field on Hekla in July 2000

The most recent eruption was relatively short, it started at 18:18 on 26 February 2000 and lasted until 8 March. It was a VEI3 eruption producing a lava volume of 0.189 km3 DRE[38] / 0.29 km3[12] and 107 m3 of tephra.[12] The eruption went through four phases:

  1. initial explosive stage
  2. fire fountains
  3. bursts of Strombolian eruption
  4. effusion of lava[38]

Eruption activity was at a maximum in the first hour and by the first night the fissure on Hekla had opened to a length of 6–7 km. The steam column rose to a height of almost 15 km and ash was transported to Grímsey.[39] During this eruption, a NASA DC-8 aeroplane accidentally flew through the plume with all instruments switched on, resulting in unprecedented measurement of a young volcanic plume.[40]

Up until this eruption, it had always been assumed that Hekla was incapable of producing the most dangerous of volcanic phenomena, the pyroclastic flow. In January 2003, however, a team from the Norvol Institute in Reykjavík, under the leadership of Dr. Ármann Höskuldsson, reported that they found traces of a pyroclastic flow, roughly 5 km long, stretching down the side of the mountain. This will call for a reappraisal of volcanic eruptions of the basic rock type, which up to now were generally thought not to produce large pyroclastic flows. It will also require that the public and curious spectators who always rush to the scene at the start of a new outbreak, be kept much further away from the volcanic activity than was thought necessary during previous outbreaks.

Future eruptions

Steam at the summit of Hekla

In January 2010 there were reports of patches near to the summit not covered with snow[41] and that the lava chamber pressure had reached levels similar to those before Hekla last erupted[42] however no eruption subsequently occurred.

International media reported activity that is interpreted as being close to another eruption in July 2011[43] while Icelandic news sources claimed otherwise.[44] The Icelandic state news web site, ruv.is, regularly warns travellers of imminent eruptions.[45][46][47]

In March 2013 a Civil Protection State of Uncertainty was issued due to an unusual cluster of seven micro-earthquakes at a depth of approximately 11 km, to the NE of the volcano, although there were no signs of ground deformation.[48] People were warned against travelling to the mountain, and the air traffic surveillance level was increased to yellow temporarily.[49][50] In April the volcano underwent unusual rapid inflation, particularly in the northern region of the volcano, that some commentators regarded as making an imminent eruption more likely.[51][52]”

For  more see:

Icelandic Meteorological Office

Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

volcano.oregonstate.edu

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (QLD): Tropical Cyclone DEBBIE (13P) 260900Z position nr 18.4S 151.0E, moving WSW 03kt (JTWC) – Published 26 Mar 2017 1253z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Debbie (13P)

Tropical cyclone Debbie moving towards the coast, expected to intensify into a category 3 system this evening – Brisbane TCWC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 18 FEET

IDQ20023

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15

Issued at 7:49 pm EST on Sunday 26 March 2017

Headline:

Tropical cyclone Debbie moving towards the coast, expected to intensify into a category 3 system this evening.

Areas Affected:

Warning Zone

Lucinda to St Lawrence including Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands.

Watch Zone

Innisfail to Lucinda, extending inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

Cancelled Zone

None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Debbie at 7:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 18.4 degrees South 150.9 degrees East, estimated to be 440 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 330 kilometres east northeast of Bowen.

Movement: west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Debbie is moving west-southwest towards the north Queensland coast and is currently forecast to intensify into a category 3 system tonight. Tropical cyclone Debbie is likely continue on a similar track and intensify further prior to making landfall between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

Hazards:

GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay tonight, and could extend to remaining areas between Lucinda and St Lawrence on Monday. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Innisfail and Lucinda during Monday evening or Tuesday morning, as well as further inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay as early as Monday morning. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may then gradually extend further north to Lucinda during the day Monday and overnight into Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently expected to cross the coast between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the centre.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur south of Proserpine on the high tides on Monday.

Residents between and between Lucinda and Mackay are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast on Tuesday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.as the cyclone approaches the coast on Tuesday. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas late on Sunday and continue through Monday and Tuesday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 200 mm, with isolated falls of 400 mm, is also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area next week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cardwell and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Recommended Action:

People between Ayr and St Lawrence should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours.

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between Cairns and Ayr, and inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

– Information is available from your local government

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Sunday 26 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau’s website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

================================================================================

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 26 Mar, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone DEBBIE is currently located near 18.3 S 151.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 70 kts (81 mph). DEBBIE is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DEBBIE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mackay (21.3 S, 149.1 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Ingham (18.5 S, 146.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
260600Z — NEAR 18.3S 151.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 151.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 18.6S 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 19.0S 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 19.5S 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 20.0S 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 20.9S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 21.6S 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 151.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. A 260545Z SSMIS 37
GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, A LARGE
MICROWAVE EYE, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED
BY MULTI-AGENCY DVORAKS OF T3.5 (55 TO 70 KNOTS) LATEST SATCON
ESTIMATES AROUND 65 KNOTS, AND THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, RECENT TPW IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS SLOWED THE
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC DEBBIE HAS BEEN TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NER AND A
STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UNDER THE SHARED
STEERING INFLUENCE OF BOTH FEATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL TC 13P MAKES LANDFALL
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY
INTENSIFICATION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND, THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
OF RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE LEADING TO COMPLETE
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE ON THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTAU05 APRF 260653
IDW23100
40:3:1:24:16S099E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0653UTC 26 MARCH 2017

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Caleb was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal zero south (16.0S)
longitude ninety nine decimal four east (99.4E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 994 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre.

Winds above 34 knots Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant,
with rough to very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 26 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 16.0 south 98.8 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 27 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 16.0 south 97.7 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 26 March 2017.

WEATHER PERTH

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Rodrigues /Mauritius /LaReunion /Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone #Eleven (11S) 082100Z position nr 15.2S 69.8E, moving W 05kt (JTWC) – Published 08 Mar 2017 2100z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Eleven (11S)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 15.2S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 70.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 15.3S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 15.8S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 16.9S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 18.7S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 21.8S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 14 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 24.8S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 28.2S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 69.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR)
AND A 081732Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. THE PREVIOUSLY FRAGMENTED CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND
CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE LLCC OVER THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 081732Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWING THE TIGHT LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM OF T2.5-3.0 FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH A SMALL BUT DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER
THE SYSTEM, ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). SSTS ALSO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION WITH TEMPS
OBSERVED NEAR 30C. SINCE THE SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AT
THIS TIME, THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE IS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTH, STEERING TC 11S SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE TIME
BEING. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF TC 09S ARE CURRENTLY
PROVIDING SOME PRESSURE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
DISPLACING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OFF THE LLCC, AND
LIMITING POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. AS UPPER-
LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS REESTABLISHED BEYOND TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY AT
TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC11S WILL
TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, THEN TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWEST AS IT
STRENGTHENS AND THE STEERING SHIFTS TO A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE
TO THE EAST. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FOREWORD MOTION AFTER
TAU 36 DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE SYSTEM TO THE EAST.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE TRACK, WITH SOME INITIAL DISAGREEMENT OF
THE TIMING OF THE TURN SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS 14 FEET. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

=============================================================================

WTIO31 FMEE 081914
RSMC / CENTER OF LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONES
ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING CYCLONE (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) NEWSLETTER
0.A NEWSLETTER: 9/7/20162017
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7
2.A POSITION HAS 1800 UTC ON 03/08/2017:
WITHIN A RADIUS OF 20 MINUTES AROUND THE POINT 15.2 S / 70.0 E
(SIXTY TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DEGREES ZERO‘S)
DISPLACEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A WIND MAX (MEDIUM/10 MIN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RVM): VOID
6.A WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM) EXTENSION:
28 KT ONLY: 0 SE: 200 SO: 190 NO.: 0
7.A SIDE/DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION PORTRAIT OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION: AVERAGE
1.B FORECASTS:
12 H: 03/09/2017 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 68.3 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
24: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 67.8 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
36H: 10 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 67.7 E WIND MAX = 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 10 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 19.5 S / 66.1 E WIND MAX = 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 11 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 63.1 E WIND MAX = 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 11 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.1 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
2.B TREND FURTHER:
96H: 12 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 25.4 S / 54.7 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
120H: 13 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 29.4 S / 54.4 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, POSTTROPICALE DEPRESSION
2.C COMMENTS:
T = 2.5, CI = 2.5
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS GENERALLY IMPROVING BUT IT IS
A VERY RECENT. THE N18 1416Z WATCH AGAIN PASS A CENTER EXPOSES A
WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, AND IT IS SINCE SHORTLY BEFORE 17Z ONLY ONE
BURST OF CONVECTION TAKES PLACE VERY NEAR THE CENTER. THE ASCAT PASS OF THE
EVENING CONFIRMS INTENSITY ANALYZED. IF THIS TREND IS CONSOLIDATING
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SMALL
WINDOW OF FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY
THE MINIMUM SE MOVED SLOWLY IN THE WEST BRANCH UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW/MEDIUM RIDGE
TROPOSPHERE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH EAST OF THE BASIN. TOMORROW NIGHT, THE
MODELS AVAILABLE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO PREDICT A TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTH BUT WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES, WHICH CAUSES A
UNCERTAINTY AVERAGE WELL REPORTED BY THE DISPERSION OF THE FORECAST
OVERVIEW OF THE CEP. THIS WEEKEND, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER HIS
PATH ON THE SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHWEST AND
SPEED UP BYPASSING THIS RIDGE.
THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM MAKES IT PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE HAS ITS
ENVIRONMENT, INCLUDING ALTITUDE, WHICH MAKES FORECASTING
HARD INTENSITY. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT, THE ASCENT OF A THALWEG
ALTITUDE FROM THE MIDDLE LATITUDES (WAVE SURGE OF)
ROSSBY) CAUSES THE APPEARANCE OF A SECTOR MODERATE CONSTRAINT
NORTH. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL DATA, MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICK OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALLOW IT TO LIMIT ITS
WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVOURABLE, WITHOUT WEAKENING
INFLUENCE ON BAROCLINIC NET DYNAMICS OF ALTITUDE. IN THE PROCESS OF
WEEKEND WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE THALWEG OF ALTITUDE AND MAINTAINING
A GREAT DIFFERENCE POLAR, THE SYSTEM COULD BE

REINTENSIFIER.

WTIO31 FMEE 081914
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/7/20162017
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 7
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/03/2017 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 70.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 4 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 200 SO: 190 NO: 0
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/03/2017 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
24H: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
36H: 10/03/2017 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
48H: 10/03/2017 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
60H: 11/03/2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
72H: 11/03/2017 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2017 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
120H: 13/03/2017 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=2.5 CI=2.5
LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE EST GLOBALEMENT EN AMELIORATION MAIS C’EST
TRES RECENT. LA PASS N18 DE 1416Z MONTRE ENCORE UN CENTRE EXPOSE A
L’OUEST DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE, ET C’EST DEPUIS PEU AVANT 17Z QU’UN
BURST DE CONVECTION A LIEU TRES PRES DU CENTRE. LA PASS ASCAT DE LA
SOIREE CONFIRME L’INTENSITE ANALYSEE. SI CETTE TENDANCE SE CONSOLIDE
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT PROFITER DE LA PETITE
FENETRE DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES POUR S’INTENSIFIER PLUS
SIGNIFICATIVEMENT
LE MINIMUM SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L’OUEST SOUS
L’INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSES/MOYENNES
TROPOSPHERE SITUEE SUR LA PARTIE SUD-EST DU BASSIN. DEMAIN SOIR, LES
MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT EN BON ACCORD POUR PREVOIR UN VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD MAIS AVEC DES DIFFERENCES DE TIMING, CE QUI PROVOQUE UNE
INCERTITUDE MOYENNE BIEN BALISEE PAR LA DISPERSION DE LA PREVISION
D’ENSEMBLE DU CEP. CE WEEK-END, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA
TRAJECTOIRE SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET
ACCELERER EN CONTOURNANT CETTE DORSALE.
LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME LE REND PARTICULIEREMENT SENSIBLE A SON
ENVIRONNEMENT, NOTAMMENT EN ALTITUDE, CE QUI REND LA PREVISION
D’INTENSITE DIFFICILE. A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR, LA REMONTEE D’UN THALWEG
D’ALTITUDE DEPUIS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES (DEFERLEMENT D’ONDE DE
ROSSBY) PROVOQUE L’APPARITION D’UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE SECTEUR
NORD. SELON LES DERNIERES DONNEES MODELES, LE DEPLACEMENT
RELATIVEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE LIMITER SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT AU SEIN DE CET ENVIRONNEMENT MOINS FAVORABLE, SANS
INFLUENCE BAROCLINE NETTE DE LA DYNAMIQUE D’ALTITUDE. EN COURS DE
WEEK-END, AVEC LA DISSIPATION DU THALWEG D’ALTITUDE ET LE MAINTIEN
D’UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE POLAIRE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT SE
REINTENSIFIER.

===========================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 24/1 March 08 2017 – 18:39:19 UTC
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 24/2 March 08 2017 – 18:35:46 UTC
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 24/3 March 08 2017 – 12:32:19 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST March 08 2017 – 17:44:07 UTC
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST March 08 2017 – 12:44:02 UTC

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Australia: CYCLONE WARNING for coastal areas of western Top End, including Darwin, Tiwi Islands & Wadeye – – Published 04 Mar 2017 1820z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Low 1

Forecast Track Map (NT)

Forecast Track Map (NT)

IDD20150

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9

Issued at 1:47 am ACST [12:17 am AWST] on Sunday 05 March 2017

Headline:

Cyclone Warning for coastal areas of western Top End, including Darwin, Tiwi Islands and Wadeye.

Areas Affected:

Warning Zone

Wadeye to Point Stuart and Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy.

Watch Zone

Kuri Bay to Wadeye

Cancelled Zone

None.

Details of Tropical Low at 12:30 am ACST [11:00 pm AWST]:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 85 kilometres of 10.6 degrees South 131.1 degrees East, estimated to be 105 kilometres north northeast of Milikapiti and 205 kilometres north of Darwin.

Movement: southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

A tropical low in the Timor Sea is slowly intensifying and may reach tropical cyclone intensity near the Tiwi Islands in the next 6 to 12 hours. The system is expected to continue tracking to the southwest and may pass close to Darwin during Sunday morning or early Sunday afternoon. The cyclone may intensify further during Sunday night or Monday before crossing the north Kimberley coast later on Monday as a Category 2 system.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may develop between Croker Island and Cape Fourcroy in the next 6 to 12 hours, and extend south between Point Stuart and Wadeye (Port Keats), including Darwin, from Sunday morning or early Sunday afternoon

GALES may extend further south between Wadeye (Port Keats) and the NT/WA border, later on Sunday and Monday. GALES may extend west between NT/WA border to Kuri Bay during Monday.

A STORM TIDE between Croker Island and Cape Fourcroy may occur as the cyclone centre crosses the coast on Sunday morning. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Point Stuart in the NT and Kuri Bay in WA on Sunday and Monday. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN and SQUALLS are likely to continue over the Tiwi and Croker Islands and Cobourg Peninsula this morning, extending to the western Top End later Sunday and to the Kimberley region on Sunday night or Monday.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS are possible in squally showers and storms across the western Top End during the next day or two even if the low does not reach cyclone intensity.

Recommended Action:

NTES advises residents from Cape Fourcroy to Croker Island and Point Stuart to Wadeye, including Darwin

– Your emergency kit should now be complete and ready;

– Finalise home shelter preparations, or know now where you will shelter;

– Do not move to shelter until advised by local authorities

Communities under Watch:

– Finalise your emergency kit preparations;

– Clear your premises of potential wind borne missiles;

– Commence home shelter preparations, or decide NOW where you will shelter;

– If your present accommodation is not to code, or you re unsure, you should arrange to shelter with friends, family or in a public shelter or strong building;

– Do not move to shelter until advised by local authorities.

DFES advises residents in the Watch zone between WA/NT border to Kuri Bay in WA:

-You should prepare your home inside and out

-Keep up to date with the development of the cyclone

Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am ACST Sunday 05 March [3:30 am AWST Sunday 05 March].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDD20020.txt

Guides and checklists for cyclone safety and preparedness.
Check your local emergency agencies for more information.

More information here: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/index.shtml

Australia National Weather Warnings Summary

===========================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:1:24:10S131E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1328UTC 4 MARCH 2017

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 45 nautical miles of
latitude ten decimal four south (10.4S)
longitude one hundred and thirty one decimal four east (131.4E)
Recent movement : southwest at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 18
hours.

AREA AFFECTED

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 45 knots by 1200 UTC 05
March.

From 0000 UTC 5 March winds above 34 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre,
extending to 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 05 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 11.3 south 130.4 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 05 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 12.2 south 129.3 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1930 UTC 04 March 2017.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Madagascar:Ex Tropical Cyclone Enawo 09S 081800Z Position nr 17.9S 46.6E, moving SW 08 Kt (RSMC LaReunion) – Updated 08 Mar 2017 1956z (GMT/UTC)

==

Ex Tropical Cyclone Enawo 09S

WTIO31 FMEE 081910 CCA
FIX *.
RSMC / CENTER OF LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONES
ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING CYCLONE (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) NEWSLETTER
0.A NEWSLETTER: 6/26/20162017
1.A DEPRESSION ON EARTH 6 (EX-ENAWO)
2.A POSITION HAS 1800 UTC ON 03/08/2017:
WITHIN A RADIUS OF 30 MINUTES AROUND THE POINT 17.9 S / 46.6 E
(SEVENTEEN NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTYSIX DEGREES SIX IS)
DISPLACEMENT: SOUTHWEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NOTHINGNESS
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NILE
5.A WIND MAX (MEDIUM/10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RVM): VOID
6.A WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM) EXTENSION:
28 KT DON’T: 430 SE: 440 SO: NO. 0: 0
34 KT IS: 0 SE: 350 SO: NO. 0: 0
7.A SIDE/DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR: 1002 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION PORTRAIT OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION: AVERAGE
1.B FORECASTS:
12 H: 03/09/2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 46.3 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, DEPRESSION ON EARTH
24: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 46.5 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, DEPRESSION ON EARTH
36H: 10 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 47.7 E WIND MAX = 045 KT, POSTTROPICALE DEPRESSION
48H: 10 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 30.9 S / 49.2 E WIND MAX = 045 KT, POSTTROPICALE DEPRESSION
60H: 11 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 34.5 S / 47.8 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICAL
72H: 11 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 37.4 S / 44.2 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICAL
2.B TREND FURTHER:
96H: 12 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 46.0 S / 46.6 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C COMMENTS:
FIX ON THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WHICH IS NOT FILLED (SYSTEM ON)
EARTH)
EX-ENAWO CONTINUES TO SINK INTO THE MALAGASY LAND IN
DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH A TENDENCY TO THE DOWNTURN
ON THE LAST 6 HOURS. HE SHOULD DIVE MORE FRANKLY IN
HEADING SOUTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ACCELERANT.
CONFIGURING SATELLITE REMAINS THE SAME, WITH THE PRESENCE OF
ACTIVE CONVERGENCE LINES (ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL AND THE)
COAST NORTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR AT THE ELECTRICAL LEVEL) SE FAR FORMING
CENTER IN PART ON SEA IN THE NORTH-WEST QUADRANTS AND SOUTHEAST
THE TRAFFIC.
IN THE COMING DAYS, THE DISPLACEMENT CONTINUES ON A
TRAJECTORY THAT SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME MERIDIAN WITH THE WEAKENING
THE RIDGE PRESENT ON AVERAGE TROPOSPHERE ON MADAGASCAR. THE
ORDER OF THE WIND BLOW STRONG WINDS SHOULD REMAIN PRESENT THROUGHOUT
THE COAST IS MALAGASY DURING THIS DESCENT, IS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST
MALAGASY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW NIGHT OR NEXT. AT THE
RE-RELEASE AT SEA (THURSDAY NIGHT (A FRIDAY), THE BEGINNING OF A TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICAL SHOULD START QUICKLY ENOUGH IN INTERACTION
WITH A WATER-COURSE OF ARRIVING BY THE SOUTHWEST INTO A ALTITUDE
VERY CISAILLEE ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL OCEANIC
DECREASING QUICKLY.
WTIO31 FMEE 081910 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/6/20162017
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 6 (EX-ENAWO)
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/03/2017 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.9 S / 46.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : NIL
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 440 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SO: 0 NO: 0
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1002 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/03/2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
24H: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
36H: 10/03/2017 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
48H: 10/03/2017 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
60H: 11/03/2017 06 UTC: 34.5 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 11/03/2017 18 UTC: 37.4 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2017 18 UTC: 46.0 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, SE DISSIPANT
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
CORRECTIF SUR LA PRESSION CENTRALE QUI EST NON RENSEIGNEE (SYSTEME SUR
TERRE)
EX-ENAWO CONTINUE DE S’ENFONCER DANS LES TERRES MALGACHES EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST AVEC UNE TENDANCE AU RALENTISSEMENT
SUR LES DERNIERES 6 HEURES. IL DEVRAIT PLONGER PLUS FRANCHEMENT EN
DIRECTION DU SUD DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES EN ACCELERANT.
LA CONFIGURATION SATELLITAIRE RESTE IDENTIQUE, AVEC LA PRESENCE DE
LIGNES DE CONVERGENCE ACTIVES (SURTOUT SUR LE NORD DU CANAL ET LA
COTE NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR AU NIVEAU ELECTRIQUE) SE FORMANT LOIN
DU CENTRE EN PARTIE SUR MER DANS LES QUADRANTS NORD-OUEST ET SUD-EST
DE LA CIRCULATION.
DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS, LE DEPLACEMENT SE POURSUIT SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE QUI DEVRAIT VITE DEVENIR MERIDIENNE AVEC L’AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DE LA DORSALE PRESENTE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SUR MADAGASCAR. DES
VENTS FORTS DE L’ORDRE DU COUP DE VENT DEVRAIT RESTER PRESENT LE LONG
DES COTES EST MALGACHES LORS DE CETTE DESCENTE, S’ETENDANT AU SUD-EST
MALGACHE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE DEMAIN OU NUIT SUIVANTE. A LA
RESSORTIE EN MER (NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI), LE DEBUT D’UNE TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICALE DEVRAIT S’AMORCER ASSEZ RAPIDEMENT EN INTERACTION
AVEC UN TALWEG D’ALTITUDE ARRIVANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT TRES CISAILLEE ET AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
DIMINUANT RAPIDEMENT.
SWI$06_20162017 REUNION 08

==========================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

Not available at time of posting

=========================================================

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 09S (Enawo) Warning #10 Final Warning
Issued at 07/2100Z

sh0917 JTWC 08

09S_071800sair

WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071800Z — NEAR 15.2S 49.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 49.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 16.5S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 18.1S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 21.1S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 49.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 459 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING CONTINUING TO SPIRAL INTO A DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER INLAND
OVER MADAGASCAR. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY
ERODE DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. CONCURRENTLY, TC 09S WILL
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE IMPACTS OF THE
TERRAIN. THE REMNANT VORTEX SIGNATURE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE PASSING SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

===============================================================================

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO24 FMEE 081837 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2017
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 08/03/2017 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ENAWO) NIL
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 46.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 240 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 60
NM OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN 18S AND 20S.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 110 NM OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN 17S AND 21S.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2017/03/09 AT 06 UTC:
21.4 S / 46.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2017/03/09 AT 18 UTC:
25.0 S / 46.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CORRECTIVE: CENTRAL PRESSURE UNKNOWN (OVER-LAND DEPRESSION)
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE SPREADING SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF
MADAGASCAR.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Zimbabwe: At least 850 people in the Siphepha area in Tsholotsho District were displaced by flooding – Published 27 Feb 2017 1952z (GMT/UTC)

At least 850 people in the Siphepha area in Tsholotsho District were displaced by flooding and subsequently evacuated to a local primary school and hospital by the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, the Civil Protection Unit has said. In its latest situation report released last week, Tsholotsho District was the most affected. “Tsholotsho is arguably the most severely affected district in the country to date and a considerable number of households have lost their homes to flooding or excessive moisture. “The total number of the displaced is 850 to date inclusive of schoolchildren and infants. The local school is also flooded and children cannot access the school. Flooding in the area reached waist level,” said CPU. The CPU said a plan of action for response was already in place. It said the needs or damage assessment — inclusive of mapping of the flooded area — would be conducted by the sub national civil protection structures with the support of the national civil protection committee. It was providing critical basic needs such as food, water and sanitation, shelter and protection, health services and continuity of schooling. There are also ongoing efforts in mobilising the necessary resources for response. The #ZimbabweDefenceForces is providing air rescue services. The #RedCross Society and International Organisation for Migration have also chipped in providing clothing, shoes, school bags, jerry cans, blankets, mosquito nets and toiletries. The Department of Social Welfare provided maize and rice for the community. Germany #AgroAction and #UNICEF provided plastic buckets, bars of soap, water treatment tablets as well as class- room tents while the #ZimbabweRedCrossSociety availed tents, plastic sheeting and sun plates while #PlanInternational provided three vehicles for use and fuel.

RSOE February 27 2017 05:11 PM (UTC).

Angus the first named storm of autumn 2016 — Official blog of the Met Office news team

The Met Office has announced the first named storm of autumn 2016: Storm Angus. Storm Angus is expected to sweep through south-eastern England bringing some very strong south-westerly winds and heavy rain to affected parts through Sunday morning. Looking at the development of the low-pressure system, on Friday morning the Met Office issued a Yellow […]

via Angus the first named storm of autumn 2016 — Official blog of the Met Office news team

China/Taiwan: Severe Tropical Storm Nepartak (1601, 02W) 082100Z POSITION near 23.7N 119.5E, moving N 01 Knot (JTWC) – Updated 08 Jul 2016 2040Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm  Nepartak/ Butchoy in PH (1601, 02W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 18 FEET

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground Satellite

Image: @wunderground Satellite

 Japan Meteorological agency

1601-00 8

 

1601-00 enlarged.png 8

STS 1601 (Nepartak)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 8 July 2016

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 8 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N23°40′ (23.7°)
E119°25′ (119.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 330 km (180 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 9 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25°30′ (25.5°)
E117°20′ (117.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 10 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N28°10′ (28.2°)
E117°30′ (117.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 02W (Nepartak) Warning #24
Issued at 08/2100Z

wp0216 8a

WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 024
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 23.4N 119.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 119.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 24.4N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 25.3N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 26.2N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 27.3N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 119.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at  6 Jul, 2016 6:00 GMT

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jul, 2016 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NEPARTAK is currently located near 23.4 N 119.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). NEPARTAK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Image: TSR

Image: TSR

 

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 081800

WTJP21 RJTD 081800
WARNING 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1601 NEPARTAK (1601) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON
980 HPA
AT 23.7N 119.4E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 25.5N 117.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 28.2N 117.5E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

END

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Tropical Storm Danielle (04L) STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS E MEXICO…NHC – Published 20 Jun 2016 1745z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Danielle

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground Satellite

Image: @wunderground Satellite

National Hurricane Center FL US

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]000
WTNT34 KNHC 201432
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

…DANIELLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…
…HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…20.7N 96.3W
ABOUT 75 MI…120 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI…165 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 96.3 West. Danielle is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the
west or west-northwest is expected during the next day or so. On
the forecast track, the center of Danielle is expected to move
inland over eastern Mexico later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Danielle
makes landfall in Mexico later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Danielle is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within portions of the warning area later this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Cangialosi

N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 Jun, 2016 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm DANIELLE is currently located near 20.7 N 96.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). DANIELLE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
    Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
        probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Danielle the Atlantic’s Earliest 4th Storm on Record; 115°-120° Heat in SW U.S – WEATHER UNDERGROUND

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , 3:59 PM GMT on June 20, 2016

“Tropical Storm Danielle formed on Monday morning in the Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche, but won’t be around long. The storm’s west to west-northwest motion will carry the storm inland over Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico by Monday evening. With top winds of just 45 mph as estimated by the National Hurricane Center in their 11 am EDT Monday advisory, heavy rain is expected to be the primary threat from the storm. Satellite loops show a large area of intense thunderstorms with heavy rain are moving inland along the Mexican coast south of Texas, and total rainfall amounts of 6 – 10″ are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides in the mountainous terrain along the coast. Heavy rains from Danielle will remain just south of Texas, with Brownsville expected to pick up an inch of rain or less in scattered thunderstorms through Monday night. Danielle will dissipate by Tuesday over the rugged terrain east of Mexico City.”
For more click link https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3337

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 20

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1431

WTNT24 KNHC 201431
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
1500 UTC MON JUN 20 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. LAGUNA VERDE TO RIO PANUCO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 50NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 96.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.8N 97.2W…NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 50SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.8N 98.1W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z…DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 96.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Bangladesh/India/Myanmar: Tropical Cyclone Roanu (01B) 20/2100Z position nr 20.3N 88.3E, moving NE at 11 knots (JTWC) – Updated 20 May 2016 2155Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Roanu (01B)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 18 FEET (JTWC)

ni201601_5day 20

5 Day Forecast (Image: @wunderground)

ni201601_sat_anim 20

Image: @wunderground Satellite

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre

IMD 2232
REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE

TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN
FROM:
RSMC

TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO:
STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WAR
NING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
ST
ORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT
(THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
RSMC

TROPI
CAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM ‘ROANU’ ADVISORY NO.
TWELVE
ISSUED AT
18
00 UTC OF
20
TH
MAY 2016
BASED ON
1
5
00 UTC CHARTS OF
20
TH
MAY 2016.
THE
CYCLONIC STORM

ROANU

OVER
WESTCENTRAL & ADJOINING NORTHWEST
BAY OF
BENGAL
MOVED EAST

NORTHEASTWARDS
A
T A SPEED OF 25 KMPH DURING PAST THREE
HOURS AND
LAY CENTRED AT
1500 UTC
OF
20
TH
MAY, 2016
OVER NORTHWEST
BAY OF
BENGAL
NEAR LATITUDE
20.0
º N AND LONGITUDE
87.0
ºE
,
65 KM EAST OF PARADIP
(ODISHA),SOUTHEAST AND 560 KM WEST

SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG (BANGLADESH
)
.
THE
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE
EAST

N
ORTH
EAST
WARDS
SKIRTING ODISHA

WEST BENGAL
COAST
AND
CROSS SOUTH BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN KHEPUPARA AND COX’S BAZAR
,
CLOSE TO CHITTAGONG IN THE EVENING OF
21
ST
MAY, A
S
A
CYCLONIC STORM
.
THE CON
V
ECTION SHOWS BAND PATTER
N. IT ALSO EXHIBITS LARGE SCALE DIURNAL
VARIATION DURING PAST TWO DAY
S
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST CLOUDS AND THE CURVED BANDS INTENSITY AND SIZE.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM IS T
2.
5
.
ASSOCIATED
BRO
KEN LOW
AND
MEDIUM CLOUDS
WITH
EMBEDDED INTENS
E TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY
OVER
NORTH COASTAL ODISHA,
NORTHWEST AND ADJOINING
NORTHEAST
BAY
BETWEEN
NORTH OF
LATITUDE
1
5
.
5
0
NORTH
AND
WEST OF
LONGITUDE
9
1
.0
0
E
.
THE
LOWEST CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS A
BOUT

9
3
0
C.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT
40
KNOTS GUSTING TO
50
KNOTS AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE.
THE STATE OF THE SEA IS
HIGH
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT
99
2
HPA.
FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:
Date/time(
UTC
)
Position
(lat.
°N/ long. °
E)
Maximum sustained
surface wind speed (kmph)
Category of cyclonic
Disturbance
20

05

2016/
1500
20.0
/
87.0
70

80
gusting to
90
Cyclonic Storm
20

05

2016/
1800
20.5
/8
8.1
80

90
gusting to
100
Cyclonic Storm
2
1

05

2016/
0000
21.3
/8
9.6
80

90
gusting to
100
Cyclonic Storm
2
1

05

2016/
0600
22.1
/
91.0
80

90
gusting to
100
Cyclonic Storm
21

05

2016/
1200
2
2.9
/9
2.6
6
0

70
gusting to
8
0
Cyclonic Storm
2
2

05

2016/
0000
2
4.2
/
9
4.7
40

50
gusting to
60
Depression
Phone
:
(91) 11

24652484 FAX: (91) 11

24623220
,
(91) 1
1

246
43128,
e

mail:cwdhq2008@gmail.com
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE FOR BANGLADESH COAST.
STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 1.0 TO
2
METRE IS VERY LIKELY NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTRE AT THE
TIME OF LANDFALL
.
REMARKS:
THE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 3
0

31
̊C, OCEAN THERMAL ENERG
Y
IS ABOUT
75

100
KJ/CM
2
, LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY DURING PAST SIX HOURS
AND IS ABOUT 2
0
X
10

5
SECOND

1
,
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS
ALSO DECREASED AND IS
ABOUT
1
0
X10

5
SECOND

1
, THE LOW LEVE
L RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ABOUT
200
X10

6
SECOND

1
,
AROUND SYSTEM CENTER.
VERT
I
CAL WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES TO BE
LOW
(
5

1
0
KNOTS)
AND IS FAVOURABLE
.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE LIES ALONG
LATITUDE
1
6.0
0
̊N.
THOUGH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, THE PROXIMITY
OF THE SYSTEM TO THE COAST PROVIDES LAND SURFACE INTERECTION OPPOSING THE
INTENSIFICATION FURTHER
AS THE CYCLONIC S
TORM
MOVES NORTH EASTWARDS IT WILL
EXPERIENCE LOWER OCE
N THERMAL ENERGY AND MORE MID

LATITUDE INFLUENCE
UNFAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THUS, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE CYCLONIC
STORM INTENSITY IN THIS MARGINALLY FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT
THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS FAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID
LATITUD
E
WESTERLIES
IN MID & UP
P
ER TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS
THE DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND IS
FAVOURING THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WITH A SPEED OF 25

30
KMPH DURING PAST 12 HOURS. SIMILAR CONDITION WILL CONTINUE DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TRACK
FORECAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE N
EXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT
21
0
0
UTC OF
20
MAY
2016
.
(
RANJEET SINGH
)
SCIENTIST

F
’ ’

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

N Indian Ocean: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 May, 2016 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ROANU is currently located near 19.8 N 87.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). ROANU is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bangladesh
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    India
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Myanmar
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Barisal (22.7 N, 90.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Comilla (23.4 N, 91.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Khulna (22.9 N, 89.6 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Chittagong (22.3 N, 91.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Cox’s Bazar (21.4 N, 92.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Puri (19.8 N, 85.9 E)
        probability for TS is 65% currently
    Imphal (24.8 N, 93.9 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
    Dhaka (23.7 N, 90.4 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

tsr 20

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

JTWC Tropical Warnings

Current Northwest Pacific/North Indian Ocean* Tropical Systems

Tropical Cyclone 01B (Roanu) Warning #11
Issued at 20/2100Z

io0116 20 

WTIO31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
201800Z — NEAR 19.8N 87.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 045 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 87.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 21.6N 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 23.7N 93.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 25.7N 96.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 88.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 279 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES RE-DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201549Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T3.5 (55
KNOTS), A RECENT SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 54 KNOTS,
AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATING SLIGHTLY WEAKER CORE
WINDS. TC 01B CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW AND
BENEATH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ALOFT. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, BUT HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH FOLLOWING A
SLIGHT POLEWARD JOG IN THE BEST TRACK OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
POLEWARD OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. BASED ON MODEL AGREEMENT AND A
RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WITHIN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION, WITH
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW UNDER THE STR, WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-20
KNOTS. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH TAU 12, FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS SHEAR INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND LAND INTERACTION. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN APPROXIMATELY 12-18 HRS FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION BY TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.//
NNNN


* Includes Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 201800
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 20 MAY 2016
——————————————————–
PART I:-STORM WARNING

PART II
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘ROANU’ OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NW BAY OF
BENGAL MOVED
EASTNORTHEASTWARDS AND LIES CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY 20TH MAY
,2016
OVER NW BAY OF BANGAL NEAR LAT.19.7 DEG N AND LONG. 86.5 DEG E,
ABOUT 70 KM SOUTHSOUTHWEST OF PARADIP (ODISHA),70 KMS SE OF PURI AND
630 KMS WSW OF
CHITTAGONG (BANGLADESH)(.)THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE NE-WARDS
SKIRTING ODISHA WEST BANGAL
COST AND CROSS SOUTH BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN CHEPUPARA AND COX’S
BAZAR , CLOSE TO
CHITTAGONG IN THE EVENING OF 21ST MAY 2016 AS A CYCLONIC STORM (.)

WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII(N)
—————————– ——————-
A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 55 DEG E:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E:1)N-OF 05 DEG N :WNW/W-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
2)S-OF 05 DEG N :-WNW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC W/WSW-LY TO THE E OF
75 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E (.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:- 4-3 NM TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E (.) REST AREA 8-6 NM
(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT-1)3-4 M 2)1-2 M (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 55 DEG E:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E:1)N-OF 05 DEG N :WNW/W-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
2)S-OF 05 DEG N :-WNW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC W/WSW-LY TO THE E OF
75 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E (.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:- 4-3 NM TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E (.) REST AREA 8-6 NM
(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT-1)3-4 M 2)1-2 M (.)
A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 55 DEG E:SW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E:WSW/W-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E (.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E(.)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- 2-3 M(.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 55 DEG E:SW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E:WSW/W-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E (.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E(.)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- 2-3 M(.)

A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 95 DEG E:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 95 DEG E:SW-LY 05/10 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:- FAIRLYWIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E-OF 90 DEG E(.)REST
AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:- 4-3 NM TO THE E-OF 90 DEG E(.)REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)0.5-1 M(.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 95 DEG E:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 95 DEG E:SW-LY 05/10 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:- FAIRLYWIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E-OF 90 DEG E(.)REST
AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:- 4-3 NM TO THE E-OF 90 DEG E(.)REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)0.5-1 M(.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS:-
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)N OF 18 DEG N:S/SE-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N:SSW-LY 25/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:- WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2) 4-5 M(.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)N OF 18 DEG N:S/SE-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N:SSW-LY 25/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:- WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2) 4-5 M(.)
—————————————————-
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT(.)
++++=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/Wallis/Samoa: Tropical Cyclone Amos 17F: 201800Z 12.6S 179.9W, moving WNW 06 Kt. Expected to INTENSIFY – Published 20 Apr 2016 2020Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Amos 17F

Tropical Cyclone Amos

5 Day Forecast (Image: @wunderground)

Tropical Cyclone Amos

Image: @wunderground Satellite

 

“Update of Tropical Cyclone “Amos”

During the early hours of this morning, Tropical Depression TD17F has intensified into a Tropical Cyclone and was named Tropical Cyclone “Amos”.

At 3am this morning, it was analysed at 12.8S 179.9W or approximately 230km south-southeast of Niulakita(Tuvalu) or 330km north of Cikobia(Fiji). It is moving westwards at around 14km/hr. As indicated on the attached map, it will turn and move the southeast and is likely to pass in between Wallis and Samoa and this is likely to occur during the weekend

It poses no direct threat to Fiji.

Keep checking this page for further updates.

Stay safe,
Fiji Met”

1823UTC 200416

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 201944 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE AMOS CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 179.9W AT
201800UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. AMOS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35
KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND
LLCC FROM NORTH. ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS
WARMING FROM THE SOUTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 400HPA.
SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
SOUTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0, MET AND PT
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 210600 UTC 12.7S 180.0 MOV SW AT 01KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 211800 UTC 12.4S 179.4W MOV ENE AT 03KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 220600 UTC 12.2S 178.4W MOV ENE AT 05KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 221800 UTC 12.3S 177.3W MOV E AT 06KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TOPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON AMOS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
210200UTC.

SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 Apr, 2016 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm AMOS is currently located near 12.6 S 179.6 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). AMOS is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mata-Utu (13.3 S, 176.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

STORM WARNING 028 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 201913 UTC.

***** CORRECTION TO WARNING NUMBER *****

TROPICAL CYCLONE AMOS CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6
SOUTH 179.9 WEST AT 201800 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 12.6S 179.9W AT 201800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 06 KNOTS. CYCLONE EXPECTING
INTENSIFY.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
50 KNOTS BY 211200 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 12.7S 180.0 AT 210600 UTC
AND NEAR 12.4S 179.4W AT 211800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 026.

WTPS11 NFFN 201800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
APR 201944 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE AMOS CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 179.9W AT
201800UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. AMOS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35
KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND
LLCC FROM NORTH. ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS
WARMING FROM THE SOUTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 400HPA.
SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
SOUTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0, MET AND PT
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 210600 UTC 12.7S 180.0 MOV SW AT 01KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 211800 UTC 12.4S 179.4W MOV ENE AT 03KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 220600 UTC 12.2S 178.4W MOV ENE AT 05KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 221800 UTC 12.3S 177.3W MOV E AT 06KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TOPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON AMOS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
210200UTC.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Seychelles/Madagascar: Very Intense Tropical Cyclone FANTALA 08R 19S: (=CAT5-SS) – Published 18 Apr 2016 1638Z (GMT/UTC)

Very Intense Tropical Cyclone‬ FANTALA‬ (08R‬ 19S)

(= CATEGORY 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 40 FEET.

Tropical Cyclone Fantala

5 Day Forecast (Image: @wunderground)

Tropical Cyclone Fantala

Image: @wunderground Satellite

ZCZC 048
WTIO30 FMEE 181238 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/8/20152016
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA)
2.A POSITION 2016/04/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / 49.3 E
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 910 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 130 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 100 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/04/19 00 UTC: 9.4 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2016/04/19 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2016/04/20 00 UTC: 10.5 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2016/04/20 12 UTC: 11.4 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2016/04/21 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2016/04/21 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/04/22 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2016/04/23 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=7.0-, CI=7.5-
NNNN

WTIO31 FMEE 181238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE OF LA REUNION
ANALYSIS REPORT AND FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A BULLETIN NUMBER: 30/8/20152016
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA)
2.A POSITION AT 1200 UTC ON 18/04/2016:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / E 49.3
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0 / 7.5 / 0.5 W / H 6
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 910 HPA
5.A MAX WIND (MEDIUM / 10 MN): 130 KT
RAY OF MAXIMUM WIND (RVM): 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION BY WINDS QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: SO 240 250 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 100 SE: SO 110 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE SE 80 80 SO: 100 NO: 80
64 KT NE SE 60: 60 SW: 70 NO: 60
7.A / DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 04/19/2016 00 UTC: 9.4 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY
INTENSE
24H: 19/04/2016 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
36H: 20/04/2016 00 UTC: 10.5 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
48H: 20/04/2016 12 UTC: 11.4 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND = 090 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
60H: 21/04/2016 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND = 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 21/04/2016 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND = 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B TREND LATER:
96H: 22/04/2016 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND = 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 23/04/2016 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND = 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C:
T = 7.0-, 7.5- CI =
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS EYE FANTALA REMAINS VERY WELL
DEFINED AND HOT. SUMMITS PERIODS HAVE warmed up slightly.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXCELLENT FLOW ALOFT OUTGOING.
SLOWING THE SYSTEM STILL ON WEST CAP. THE HIGH CELL
Geopotentials OF MADAGASCAR AND WEAKENING SHOULD BE FANTALA
QUIT TONIGHT.
TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DOUBLE RIDGE MIDDLE OF EQUATORIAL
TROPOSPHERE MEAN THAT BUILDS NORTHEAST AND FRONT OF
LARGE TROUGH OF MID-LATITUDE, FANTALA SHOULD RE-ACCELERATE
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
Wednesday and Thursday, ALWAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR RIDGE
EQUATORIAL CITED AND PRE-NEW DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH, THE
TRACK COULD ORIENTATION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY NEW CELL MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE
TROPOSPHERE COULD REBUILD IN MADAGASCAR AND SYSTEM
COULD RESUME AGAIN If FIXING TRACK BEFORE
NORTH-WEST.
THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS ARE IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS
SCENARIO BEFORE MATURITY.
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, TAKING ACCOUNT OF THE SLOWDOWN
METEOR, THEN IT PASSES TOMORROW MORNING ON WATER HE ALREADY
Traveled, THEREFORE LESS ENERGY CONTENT, MAY FANTALA
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY EVEN IF THE DIFFERENCE IN CONDITIONS
ALTITUDE REMAIN VERY FAVOURABLE.
FROM WEDNESDAY THE DIFFERENCE CONDITIONS ARE IN ALTITUDE
SLIGHTLY LESS GOOD, BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD FIND WATER
MORE HOT AND SHOULD REMAIN HIGH INTENSITY.
AFTER LATEST MODELS, VERTICAL SHEAR
WIND SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ON THE TRACK
PROVIDED AT END OF ÉCHÉANCWTIO31 FMEE 181238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE OF THE MEETING
ANALYSIS REPORT AND FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A BULLETIN NUMBER: 30/8/20152016
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA)
2.A POSITION AT 1200 UTC ON 18/04/2016:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / E 49.3
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0 / 7.5 / 0.5 W / H 6
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 910 HPA
5.A MAX WIND (MEDIUM / 10 MN): 130 KT
RAY OF MAXIMUM WIND (RVM): 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION BY WINDS QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: SO 240 250 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 100 SE: SO 110 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE SE 80 80 SO: 100 NO: 80
64 KT NE SE 60: 60 SW: 70 NO: 60
7.A / DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 04/19/2016 00 UTC: 9.4 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY
INTENSE
24H: 19/04/2016 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
36H: 20/04/2016 00 UTC: 10.5 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
48H: 20/04/2016 12 UTC: 11.4 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND = 090 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
60H: 21/04/2016 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND = 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 21/04/2016 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND = 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B TREND LATER:
96H: 22/04/2016 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND = 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 23/04/2016 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND = 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C:
T = 7.0-, 7.5- CI =
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS EYE FANTALA REMAINS VERY WELL
DEFINED AND HOT. SUMMITS PERIODS HAVE warmed up slightly.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXCELLENT FLOW ALOFT OUTGOING.
SLOWING THE SYSTEM STILL ON WEST CAP. THE HIGH CELL
Geopotentials OF MADAGASCAR AND WEAKENING SHOULD BE FANTALA
QUIT TONIGHT.
TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DOUBLE RIDGE MIDDLE OF EQUATORIAL
TROPOSPHERE MEAN THAT BUILDS NORTHEAST AND FRONT OF
LARGE TROUGH OF MID-LATITUDE, FANTALA SHOULD RE-ACCELERATE
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
Wednesday and Thursday, ALWAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR RIDGE
EQUATORIAL CITED AND PRE-NEW DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH, THE
TRACK COULD ORIENTATION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY NEW CELL MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE
TROPOSPHERE COULD REBUILD IN MADAGASCAR AND SYSTEM
COULD RESUME AGAIN If FIXING TRACK BEFORE
NORTH-WEST.
THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS ARE IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS
SCENARIO BEFORE MATURITY.
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, TAKING ACCOUNT OF THE SLOWDOWN
METEOR, THEN IT PASSES TOMORROW MORNING ON WATER HE ALREADY
Traveled, THEREFORE LESS ENERGY CONTENT, MAY FANTALA
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY EVEN IF THE DIFFERENCE IN CONDITIONS
ALTITUDE REMAIN VERY FAVOURABLE.
FROM WEDNESDAY THE DIFFERENCE CONDITIONS ARE IN ALTITUDE
SLIGHTLY LESS GOOD, BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD FIND WATER
MORE HOT AND SHOULD REMAIN HIGH INTENSITY.
AFTER LATEST MODELS, VERTICAL SHEAR
WIND SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ON THE TRACK
PROVIDED AT END OF ÉCHÉANCE

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) Warning #14
Issued at 18/0900Z

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1916.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/19S_180600sams.jpg

Google Earth Overlay

 

WTXS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
180600Z — NEAR 9.3S 49.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 49.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z — 9.3S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 9.6S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 10.0S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 10.8S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 12.6S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 13.3S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 01 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 13.7S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 49.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FANTALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 783 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISTINCT 16-NM EYE SURROUNDED BY
AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORE STRUCTURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW SUPPORTING THE
CURRENT INTENSITY. AN 180331Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN
INTENSE CONVECTIVE RING SURROUNDING THE EYE FEATURE WITH A SECOND
CONVECTIVE RING BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY, DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING IS WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE IN MSI IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 150 KNOTS BASED ON
AN ASSESSMENT OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. TC 19S IT TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD IN A VERY
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS). THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
INDICATING THAT THE STEERING MECHANISM IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT FROM
THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH TO A BUILDING NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD TC
FANTALA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND
DECREASING SSTS AS IT GAINS LATITUDE. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A
SECOND MID-LATITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH TURNING THE
CYCLONE WESTWARD TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE MULTIPLE TRACK CHANGES. DUE TO THIS
DISAGREEMENT AND THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.//
NNNN

S Indian Ocean: TSR Storm Alert issued at 18 Apr, 2016 6:00 GMT

Very Intense TC FANTALA is currently located near 9.3 S 49.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 150 kts (173 mph). FANTALA is a category 5 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. FANTALA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Seychelles
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Providence Is. (9.2 S, 51.1 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Antseranana (12.4 S, 49.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Vohimarina (13.3 S, 49.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Storm Tracker Map

(Images above: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 181228
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/04/2016
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 18/04/2016 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA) 910 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / 49.3 E
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR AND IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SECTOR
WITHIN OUTER BANDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/130 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2016/04/19 AT 00 UTC:
9.4 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2016/04/19 AT 12 UTC:
9.8 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Victor 07P: 152100Z POSITION nr 14.6S 166.4W, moving W at 02 knots (JTWC) – Published 15 Jan 2016 2145Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Victor 07P

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 20 FEET

sp201607_5day 15

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast
sp201607_sat_anim 15
Image: @wunderground Satellite

logo
RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre 

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone VICTOR

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 72 issued 1924 UTC Friday 15 January 2016 

65660 15


Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone VICTOR

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 6 pm January 15 2 14.7S 166.3W 110
+6hr 12 am January 16 2 14.8S 166.5W 140
+12hr 6 am January 16 2 15.0S 166.6W 165
+18hr 12 pm January 16 2 15.2S 166.7W 195
+24hr 6 pm January 16 3 15.6S 166.7W 220
+36hr 6 am January 17 3 16.6S 166.8W 280
+48hr 6 pm January 17 3 17.8S 166.6W 345
+60hr 6 am January 18 3 18.9S 166.2W 430
+72hr 6 pm January 18 3 19.9S 165.8W 520

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa


The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 152005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.7S 166.8W AT 151800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,

WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.95 WRAP YEILDS DT=3.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 15.0S 166.6W MOV WSW AT 02KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 15.6S 166.7W MOV SSW AT 02KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 16.6S 166.8W MOV SSW AT 03KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 17.8S 166.6W MOV S AT 04KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON VICTOR WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 160200 UTC.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 07P (Victor) Warning #03
Issued at 15/2100Z

sh0716 15

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151800Z — NEAR 14.6S 166.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 166.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z — 14.8S 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 15.1S 166.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 15.7S 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 16.7S 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z — 19.4S 166.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 20.6S 166.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 21.2S 167.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 166.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 256 NM EAST OF
PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONSOLIDATION OF
BANDING, DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN ALL QUADRANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC). DVORAK ESTIMATES AND RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA
INDICATE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ARE FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING TC 07P THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT (OHC) VALUES WILL REMAIN POSITIVE NORTH OF 20 DEGREES SOUTH
AND WILL ENHANCEMENT THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL POINT
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE LLCC
AND IS CREATING AMPLE OUTFLOW FOR THE SYSTEM. THIS DIVERGENT PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE 96 TO 120 TIMEFRAME. AS SSTS AND OHC DECREASE
AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WEAKENS, BEYOND TAU 96, THE OVERALL INTENSITY
WILL DECREASE, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL
CYCLONE. TC 07P HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, CAUSING A SOUTHWARD TURN WITH MARGINAL
ACCELERATION THROUGH TAU 72. A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST IS EXPECTED AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF
TC VICTOR. MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
LEADING TO IMPROVED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE TRACK HAS
BEEN KEPT SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CONSENSUS AS IT HAS BEEN SLOWLY
SHIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND
162100Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

STORM WARNING 072 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 151938 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.7 SOUTH 166.8 WEST AT 151800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 14.7S 166.8W AT 151800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
60 KNOTS BY 160000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.0S 166.6W AT 160600 UTC
AND NEAR 15.6S 166.7W AT 161800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 070.

METAREA14 / STORM_WARNING_NORTH_25S / 2100

WTPS11 NFFN 152100
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
JAN 152005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.7S 166.8W AT 151800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,

WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.95 WRAP YEILDS DT=3.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 15.0S 166.6W MOV WSW AT 02KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 15.6S 166.7W MOV SSW AT 02KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 16.6S 166.8W MOV SSW AT 03KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 17.8S 166.6W MOV S AT 04KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON VICTOR WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 160200 UTC.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

North Atlantic: ALEX WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM… …NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES – NHC – Updated 15 Jan 2016 1516z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Alex

…ALEX WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…
…NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES…

at201601_5day 1600

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

at201601_sat_anim 1600

Image: @wunderground Satellite

National Hurricane Center FL US

145558W5_NL_sm.gif

000
WTNT31 KNHC 151455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
1100 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016

…ALEX WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…
…NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…39.3N 27.0W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM N OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 28 MPH…44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Azores Meteorological Service has discontinued the hurricane
and tropical storm warning for the Azores.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
Satellite and surface data indicate that Alex made landfall on the
island of Terceira around 915 AM AST (1315 UTC) as a tropical storm
with an intensity of 70 mph (110 km/h).

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 27.0 West. Alex is
moving toward the north near 28 mph (44 km/h) and a turn toward the
north-northwest and northwest is expected over the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours. Alex is expected to lose tropical characteristics later
today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 460 miles (740 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are still possible
over portions of the Azores for the next few hours.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Rainfall in association with Alex should diminish across
the Azores this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and waves should gradually diminish
across the Azores today.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 15 Jan, 2016 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ALEX is currently located near 39.3 N 27.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). ALEX is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Azores
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Greenland
        probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ponta Delgada (37.7 N, 25.7 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201601N 1600

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

201601142241_at_graphicast b

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 151454

WTNT21 KNHC 151454
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
1500 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE AZORES METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE AZORES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

NONE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 27.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT…….150NE 150SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…….400NE 300SE 180SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 240SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 27.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 27.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 45.1N 28.3W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT…150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT…240NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT…420NE 420SE 240SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 52.7N 31.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT…120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT…240NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…420NE 300SE 240SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 57.0N 40.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 0SE 0SW 240NW.
34 KT…420NE 60SE 60SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 27.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean: Severe Tropical Cyclone (CAT3 SS) ULA 06P: 102100Z POSITION nr 22.6S 170, moving SSW 8 knots (JTWC) – Updated 10 Jan 2016 2155z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone ULA (06P)

(= CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28 FEET

sp201606_5day 10m

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

 

Image: @wunderground Satellite NOT AVAILABLE

logo

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone ULA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 48 issued 1931 UTC Sunday 10 January 2016

65660 10

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Severe Tropical Cyclone ULA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 6 pm January 10 4 22.0S 170.1E 35
+6hr 12 am January 11 4 23.0S 169.9E 65
+12hr 6 am January 11 3 24.1S 170.1E 95
+18hr 12 pm January 11 3 25.3S 170.4E 120
+24hr 6 pm January 11 3 26.5S 171.1E 150
+36hr 6 am January 12 3 29.0S 173.1E 210
+48hr 6 pm January 12 2 31.2S 175.9E 270
+60hr 6 am January 13 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+72hr 6 pm January 13 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A46 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 101954 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 945HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.0S 170.1E AT 101800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
EAST SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
WEST SEMICIRCLE.

EYE CLOUD FILLED BUT STILL DISCERNIBLE. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTENT WITH SLIGHT WARMING IN CLOUD TOPS PAST 6 HOURS.
ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. ULA IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EYE PATTERN WITH MG EYE IN LG SURROUND DT=5.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT
BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T5.0/6.0/W0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 24.1S 170.1E MOV S AT 12KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 26.5S 171.1E MOV SSE AT 12KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
110200 UTC.

 

vms_banner_bg_14

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 14 for Anietyum Island, TAFEA province.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 14 issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and
Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 6:08am VUT Monday 11 January 2016 for
Anietyum Island, TAFEA province.

At 5:00am local time, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula (941 hPa) Category 4 was
located at 22.0 degrees South 170.0 degrees East. The Severe Tropical Cyclone
is positioned at the top right corner of square letter I, number 12 (I,12)
of the Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map. This is about 200 KM
south of Aneityum and 285 KM south southeast of Tanna.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula has moved in a south southwest direction at
14 KM/HR in the past 3 hours.

Winds close to the center are estimated at 165 KM/HR.
Expected position of the system in the next 6 hours will be near
23.7 degrees South 170.1 degrees East.

Strong force winds of 45 to 55 KM/HR will continue to affect
Anietyum island today and slowly decreasing as Tropical cyclone
Ula continues a southward movement away from Vanuatu Area.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time Position Intensity
+06 hours (11am, 11 Jan) 22.8S, 169.8E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5pm, 11 Jan) 23.7S, 170.1E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11pm, 11 Jan) 24.6S, 170.3E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5am, 12 Jan) 25.7S, 171.0E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5pm, 12 Jan) 27.6S, 172.6E 80 KTS (150 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5am, 13 Jan) 29.1S, 174.7E 80 KTS (150 KM/HR)

Seas will remain rough to very rough over southern waters with
heavy swells expected.

The Vanuatu National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) has given ALL CLEAR
for TAFEA province.

This will be the final information on Severe Tropical Cyclone ULA unless the
systems turns back.

This warning is also available on VMGD’s website http://www.meteo.gov.vu
Bislama Translation

Tropikol Saeklon Woning Namba 14 lo Sevea Tropikol Saeklon Ula we i kamaot
lo Vanuatu Meteorology mo Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila lo
6:08am VUT Monday 11 January 2016.

Lo 5:00am lokal taem, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula (941 hPa) Category 4 hemi
stap lo 22.0 degrees South 170.0 degrees East. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula
oli loketem kolosap lo top kona blo skwea leta I, namba 12 (I,12) insaed lo
Vanuatu Tropikol saeklon Traking Map. Hemia, hemi stap 200 KM south
blo Aneityum mo 285 KM south southeast blo Tanna. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula
i bin muv lo south southwest dareksen lo wan spid blo 14 KM/HR lo las 3 aoa we i pas.

Presa lo medel blo saeklon ia hemi kolosap lo 941 hPa. Pawa blo win kolosap
lo senta hemi 165 KM/HR. Sevea Tropikol saeklon Ula bai i muv i go lo
23.7 degrees South 170.1 degrees East lo nekis 06 kasem 12 aoa.

Ol win we pawa blo ol i save kasem 45 igo kasem 55KM/HR oli expekted blo stap
afektem Anietyum aelan mo slo slo bai i stap ko daon taem Tropikol saeklon
Ula i kontinu blo muv aot lo eria blo Vanuatu.

Fokas Posisen
Dei mo taem Posisen Pawa
+06 hours (11am, 11 Jan) 22.8S, 169.8E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5pm, 11 Jan) 23.7S, 170.1E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11pm, 11 Jan) 24.6S, 170.3E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5am, 12 Jan) 25.7S, 171.0E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5pm, 12 Jan) 27.6S, 172.6E 80 KTS (150 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5am, 13 Jan) 29.1S, 174.7E 80 KTS (150 KM/HR)

Solwora bai i raf tumas iet wetem ol bigfala swel i expekted blo afektem sol
wota blo saot.

Vanuatu Nasonal Disasta Manejmen Ofis hemi stap givim ALL CLEAR lo ol people
blo TAFEA.

Bae i no mo kat narafala woning we ba i kamaot.

Ol woning ia you save kasem lo website blo VMGD www.meteo.gov.vu

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) Warning #24
Issued at 10/2100Z

sh0616 10

 

WTPS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101800Z — NEAR 22.1S 170.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 170.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 24.3S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 26.7S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 29.2S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 30.8S 176.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 17 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 33.1S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 170.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM EAST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE THAT
HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC AND ELONGATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE
TO INCREASED NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, THE
CYCLONE HAS NEARLY LOST ITS EYE FEATURE AND CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE
CORE HAVE WARMED. A 101525Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE STILL SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE; HOWEVER, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PUSHED
TO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND DRY AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND AN
ASSESSMENT OF SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED BASED ON DECLINING
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND SUPPORTS THE
WEAKENING SEEN IN ALL IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 06P IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN AXIS OF
THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR). OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS THE
CYCLONE WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST. VWS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AND SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE,
ACCELERATING THE WEAKENING TREND. TC ULA WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WHICH SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Jan, 2016 6:00 GMT

Very Intense TC ULA is currently located near 20.5 S 170.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 115 kts (132 mph). ULA is a category category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. ULA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vanuatu
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    New Caledonia
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

201606P 10a

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING 047 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 101900 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 945HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0 SOUTH 170.1
EAST AT 101800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 22.0S 170.1E at 101800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 85 KNOTS
BY 110600UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN WEST
SEMICIRCLE.
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN EAST
SEMICIRLCE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.1S 170.1E AT 110600 UTC
AND NEAR 26.5S 171.1E AT 111800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 046

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 16 Nov 2015 2330z (GMT/UTC)

==UK==

STORM BARNEY

SKYWARN

Severe Weather Alert #54 issued (See below)

Met Office Severe Weather Warnings:

Met Office Weather Warnings for mobile

Highlands & Eilean Siar Yellow Warning

Strathclyde Yellow Warning

London & South East England Yellow Warning

East Midlands Yellow Warning

North West England Yellow Warning

South West England Yellow Warning

Yorkshire & Humber Yellow Warning

Orkney & Shetland Yellow Warning

East of England Yellow Warning

Wales Yellow Warning

West Midlands Yellow Warning

North East England Yellow Warning

(For details follow above links)

 20 Flood Warnings in England and Wales – 6 in Scotland

at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

29 Flood Alerts in England and Wales – 5 in Scotland

at 

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

( Check for interim updates in comments at bottom of page)

Severe Weather Warnings for Europe are now toward the bottom of the page

UK Visible Satellite (meteocentre.com)

UK Infra Red Satellite (meteocentre.com)

Weather Radar Europe (meteox.co.uk)

Channel Islands (Jersey) Weather Radar Latest Animation

Jersey Radar also covers much of South/South West of England & N France

CI weather warnings


SkyWarn UK’s mission is to forecast, report, and record severe weather.

SKYWARN UK CURRENT ALERT (Link)

Severe Weather Alert #54
SWUK has issued a Severe Weather Alert for strong winds in excess of 70mph
Valid from 1300hrs Tuesday 17th November to 0300hrs Wednesday 18th November.
for
South and South Western England & Wales
An easterly moving low pressure system (officially named ‘Barney’ by the MetO) will track across southern UK on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Wind gusts could exceed SWUK criteria of 70mph along exposed coasts on the southern flank of the low.
Wales and the Bristol Channel could see gusts of 80mph
Spotters in the alert area are requested to report any breaches of SWUK criteria in the normal manner.

For details on SkyWarn UK’s alert criteria, click HERE.

TORRO Logo The Tornado & Storm Research Organisation (TORRO)

The latest Severe Weather Reports from TORRO can be found by following this link:

SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST

Report Severe Weather

Torro on Facebook

Latest news reports (see bottom of page)

BBC Weather

Monday

151116

Tuesday

151117

Wednesday

151118

UK Warnings

Warnings

Monday 16 November Published at 16:54

UK Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING OF WIND for NORTHWEST SCOTLAND

Issued at 10:35 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid from 11:00 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid until 23:55 on Mon 16 Nov

Southwesterly winds will increase during Monday, when severe gales will affect parts of the northwest mainland of Scotland, the Western Isles and Northern Isles. The strongest winds will initially develop across the Western Isles and northwest coast this afternoon before extending into the Northern Isles during the evening. Winds will quickly ease on Tuesday.

Gusts of wind of 65-75 mph are expected in places, so be aware that there may be some further disruption to travel. Additionally, large waves may cause some overtopping of sea defences.

This an update to the warning issued on Sunday morning.

Further updates will appear here.

YELLOW WARNING OF RAIN for NORTH WALES and NORTH ENGLAND

Issued at 10:23 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid from 10:00 on Tue 17 Nov

Valid until 23:45 on Tue 17 Nov

Further rain is expected on Tuesday as a frontal system runs across the UK from the west. The largest accumulations are expected across the hills of northwest England and northwest Wales though low lying areas will also see a period of heavy rain. On the southern side of this system some very strong winds are expected and a separate warning for winds is likely to be issued.

The public should be aware that, given the already saturated conditions, flooding is possible either from standing water or from rivers already swollen by recent rainfall. This could lead to disruption to travel and perhaps localised flooding to properties.

This is a further update to the warning originally issued on Friday, reducing the northern extent of the warning and moving into minor impacts.

Further updates will appear here.

YELLOW WARNING of WIND for much of WALES and SOUTHERN ENGLAND

Issued at 10:46 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid from 15:00 on Tue 17 Nov

Valid until 23:30 on Tue 17 Nov

West to southwesterly gales and locally severe gales are likely to sweep eastwards across parts of Wales, southern, central and eastern England later on Tuesday. Gusts could reach 60-70 mph inland and possibly 80 mph along exposed coasts, particularly Wales and through the Bristol Channel.

Be aware of the risk of disruption to travel and that gusts of this strength could bring down trees and lead to some damage to weakened structures.

Further updates will appear here.

YELLOW EARLY WARNING OF RAIN for NORTH WALES and NORTH ENGLAND

Issued at 12:17 on Sun 15 Nov

Valid from 16:00 on Wed 18 Nov

Valid until 23:45 on Wed 18 Nov

Another spell of heavy rain, accompanied by gale force winds in places, will cross the country on Wednesday, with largest rainfall over the high ground areas already saturated from recent wet weather. Up to 50 mm is expected in the wettest spots in North Wales and NW England.

The public should be aware of the potential for further impacts such as disruption to travel and local flooding.

Further updates will appear here.

When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings

Northern Ireland: Addition information available from https://www.facebook.com/northernirelandweather?fref=ts

Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.

What is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW)?

Peter Gibbs explains sudden stratospheric warming and why it is often linked to outbreaks of cold weather: Sudden stratospheric warming

What is freezing fog?

UK RADAR AND SATELLITE

Surface Analyses & Observations UK and Europe

https://embed.windyty.com/?surface,wind,now,53.801,3.076,4,,menu,,

Animated map of global wind conditions

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

News at bottom of page

FLOOD WARNINGS & ALERTS

There are NO SEVERE FLOOD WARNING currently in force in England & Wales at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

There are NO SEVERE FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in Scotland at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

Flood Warning Flood Warning Flooding is expected. Immediate action required

There are 20 FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in England & Wales at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/flood/31618.aspx

There are 6 FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in Scotland at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

Flood Alert Flood AlertFlooding is possible. Be prepared.

There are 29 FLOOD ALERTS currently in force in England & Wales at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

There are 5 FLOOD ALERTS currently in force in Scotland at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

About the Environment Agency Flood Warnings

The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and sent to the BBC Weather Centre, we then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.

Find out more about Flood Warnings

There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. Both the Environment Agency (for England and Wales) and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.

Floodline 0845 988 1188

Coastal Forecast

A 24 hour weather forecast for 24 UK coastal areas

Tide Tables

Tidal information supplied by the UK Hydrographic Office

Inshore Waters

There are strong wind warnings in 19 areas.

There is a gale warning in 1 area.

The next few days will be dominated by severeal areas of low pressure tracking across the British Isles bringing strong winds, large waves and changeable weather to all parts.

Shipping Forecast

There are gale warnings in 29 areas.

The general synopsis at midday

Low Bailey 964 expected Norwegian Basin 973 by midday tomorrow. New low expected Shannon 983 by same time.

Extended Outlook

The Extended Outlook aims to signpost expected hazards for the Cullercoats, Niton and Portpatrick areas for the three days beyond the 24 hour shipping forecast.

High Seas

There are storm warnings in 8 areas.

The general synopsis at 16 November 20:00 UTC

At 161200UTC low 60 north 13 west 964 expected 63 north 02 east 973 by 171200UTC. Low 48 north 39 west 987 expected 53 north 12 west 983 by same time. Low 50 north 20 west 998 losing its identity by that time. New low moving slowly east expected 53 north 32 west 988 by 171200UTC

Mexico: Hurricane Patricia 20E CAT1: Tropical Storm Warning for Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas (NHC) – Updated 24 Oct 2015 0930z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Patricia 20E

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…PATRICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 47 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

083407W5_NL_sm 24a

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 240832
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

…PATRICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE…
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.3N 103.1W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM…SSW OF ZACATECAS MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI…205 KM ENE OF TEPIC MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning west of Manzanillo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely occurring within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 103.1 West. Patricia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). Patricia is
forecast to move quickly north-northeastward farther inland over
northern and northeastern Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue, and
Patricia is forecast to become a tropical storm later this morning,
and dissipate tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles
(465 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across
portions of the warning area and over inland areas, especially in
higher elevations, near the center through this morning.

RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,
Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains are likely
to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. During the
past 24 hours, a rainfall total of 10.25 inches (260 mm) has been
reported at Nevado De Colima in Jalisco state.

STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to gradually subside but
will remain above normal through late today.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 20E (Patricia) Warning #17
Issued at 24/0400Z

JTWC 24

20E_232345sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PHNC 240400

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 20E (PATRICIA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
240000Z — NEAR 19.6N 104.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 015 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 104.9W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 22.7N 103.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 25.0N 101.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 104.3W.
HURRICANE 20E (PATRICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 19E (OLAF) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

NE Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 24 Oct, 2015 3:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane PATRICIA (20E) currently located near 20.2 N 104.6 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Guadalajara (20.7 N, 103.3 W)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Zacatecas (22.8 N, 102.6 W)
        probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
    Tecuala (22.4 N, 105.5 W)
        probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm2 24

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 240832

WTPZ25 KNHC 240832
TCMEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING WEST OF MANZANILLO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MANZANILLO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 103.1W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 250SE 60SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 103.1W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 103.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.6N 101.2W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 103.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

More warnings here: METAREA XII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Bermuda/ Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Joaquin CAT2 04/1500Z 31.0N 66.8W, moving NNE 15 knots (NHC FL) – Updated 04 OCT 2015 1705z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Joaquin

(CATEGORY 2Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Hurricane Warning for BERMUDA – storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding

…CENTER OF JOAQUIN FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TODAY…
…DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Latest Watches, Warnings & Advisories

Hurricane Warning

Updated: 11:30 am Sunday, October 04, 2015

Additional Information:

Hurricane force winds are expected to occur for a period during Sunday evening, especially in the west and over elevated, exposed areas. Please refer to latest Tropical Update Information.
Hurricane Warning
A warning that one or both of the following dangerous effects of a hurricane are expected to affect Bermuda or the local marine area out to 25 nautical miles in 36 hours or less: (a) average winds 64 knots (118 km/h) (74 mph) or higher; (b) dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves, even though winds expected may be less than hurricane force.

Please refer to the latest forecast for detailed information on conditions likely to affect Bermuda and the surrounding marine area. This is available by logging onto our website at www.weather.bm.

The above warning(s) will be updated as conditions warrant.

– Meteorologist: Fred Byrley

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

145216W5_NL_sm 4

000
WTNT31 KNHC 041451
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015

…CENTER OF JOAQUIN FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TODAY…
…DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…31.0N 66.8W
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB…28.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of eye of Hurricane Joaquin
was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 31.0 North, longitude 66.8 West. Joaquin is now moving
toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion with a slight decrease in forward is expected to continue
through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will
pass just west of Bermuda this afternoon, and pass north of Bermuda
tonight.

Recent data from the hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 957 mb (28.26 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda
later this morning, with hurricane conditions expected by this
afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and
will spread northward along the east coast of the United States
through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to
pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period
of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the
mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with
moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 4 Oct, 2015 15:00 GMT

Hurricane JOAQUIN (AL11) currently located near 31.0 N 66.8 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bermuda
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201511N 4

Other Reports

#SCwx #NCwx #SC #NC #SAR #Flood #SevereWx #News/ Historic, life-taking #flooding in #SouthCarolina – many rescues rptd

Even though #Hurricane #Joaquin is tracking away from the United States, torrential rainfall continues to pound the #EastCoast. Heavy rain has brought historic, life-threatening flooding in many locations in South Carolina, including in #Charleston and #Columbia, where numerous rescues have been reported. Into Monday, a feed of rich tropical moisture from the #Atlantic will continue to unleash heavy rainfall on the Southeast, especially in parts of South Carolina and southeastern #NorthCarolina. Gov. Nikki Haley urged the residents of South Carolina to stay safe, saying that the amount of rain in the low country was at its highest level in a 1,000 years and noted that the #CongareeRiver was at its highest level since 1936. In eastern South Carolina and southeastern #NorthCarolina, rainfall totals are predicted to range from 12 to 24 inches, nearly half of the normal rainfall for an entire year. President #Obama has already declared a state of emergency in South Carolina and ordered federal aid to help state and local efforts. Rain and flood warnings remained in effect for many parts of the East Coast on Sunday. While much of the torrential rainfall was centered in the #Carolinas, coastal communities as far as #NewJersey were feeling the effects of unrelenting rainfall. In New Jersey, storms dislodged an entire house from its pilings in a low-lying area of #MiddleTownship, according to NBC New York. Flood watches and warnings are in effect in parts of New Jersey, as well as #Delaware, #Maryland and #Virginia. At least 5 people have died on the East Coast since the severe weather began. Of the three weather-related deaths in South Carolina, two were motorists who lost control of their cars and the third was a pedestrian hit by a car. Take a look at photos of the unfolding devastation from the torrential rains and powerful wind gusts.

Monday, 05 October, 2015 at 12:23 (12:23 PM) UTC RSOE

See also https://www.windyty.com/?23.624,-73.795,6

Dr. Jeff Masters’ Blog

Thousand-Year Rains Possible in Carolinas; Joaquin Headed North

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , 4:39 PM GMT on October 02, 2015

Hurricane Joaquin continued to lash the Bahamas on Friday morning as it turned north on a course expected to keep it well away from the U.S. East Coast. However, several days of coastal flooding and beach erosion will occur from New Jersey to North Carolina, and extremely heavy rain could produce dangerous impacts in South Carolina. It was a long night of screaming winds, pounding waves, and lashing rains for residents of the Central Bahama Islands, where dangerous Hurricane Joaquin maintained Category 4 intensity with 130 mph winds. The eyewall of Joaquin affected Crooked Island/Acklins Island (population 600), and Long Island (population 3,000) for many hours, and no doubt damage is heavy to extreme on those islands. Joaquin has turned to the north, as seen on microwave satellite animations, and as the storm plows northwards at 3 – 6 mph on Friday, San Salvador Island (population 900) will likely feel eyewall winds. The Hurricane Hunters made multiple passes through the hurricane Friday morning, finding that the central pressure had gradually risen from 935 mb to 939 mb. The size of the eye has been fluctuating considerably, and the Hurricane Hunters noted a secondary maxima of winds away from the eyewall, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle may be ready to begin. These cycles that lead to a collapse of the inner eyewall, followed by a temporary weakening as a new outer eyewall is established. Wind shear continued to be in the moderate range, 10 – 20 knots, on Friday morning, and visible and infrared satellite loops showed that Joaquin continued to maintain a formidable appearance. Upper level winds analyses from the University of Wisconsin show that the hurricane has now has two impressive upper-level outflow channels, one to the northwest, and one to the southeast. Ocean temperatures in the region remain a record-warm 30°C (86°F). These conditions should allow Joaquin to maintain at least Category 3 strength until Saturday.


Figure 1. Lightning flashes in one of Hurricane Joaquin’s spiral bands in this nighttime image taken in the early morning hours of October 2, 2015 from the International Space Station. The lights of Miami are visible in the upper left. Image credit: Commander Scott Kelly, ISS.


Figure 2.  GOES-13 visible image of Hurricane Joaquin taken at 8:45 am EDT October 2, 2015. At the time, Joaquin was a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Forecast for Joaquin
Joaquin is finally embarking on its long-awaited turn toward the north, and the Bahamas are likely the only land areas that will feel a direct impact from the storm. Microwave satellite animations on Friday morning showed the convective core of Joaquin shifting toward the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is now streaming toward the northwest, some of it becoming entrained in the frontal system off the East Coast.

The 00Z Friday (8 pm EDT Thursday) computer model runs continued to lean heavily toward an offshore track for Joaquin. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF solutions inched slightly westward from their previous tracks, bringing Joaquin a bit closer to Cape Cod through a subtle left swing in its path. The 06Z GFS run shifted back toward the east, well away from New England, and the 12Z GFS run also remained far offshore. A slight northward bend in the otherwise northeastward track remains in the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET solutions, as noted in the 11:00 am EDT forecast discussion from NHC. The ECMWF’s 00Z Friday ensemble runs were quite closely clustered around the offshore track, with only a couple of its 50 members suggesting the potential for a New England landfall. In contrast, more than a third of the 00Z and 06Z GEFS ensemble members continue to indicate the possibility of a SC/NC landfall, although the operational GFS model has not shown such a solution for some time. Among other major models, the Canadian GEM and the U.S. NAM (including the 12Z Friday NAM ran) also point toward an East Coast landfall, but take heed: these are historically among the least-reliable track models, so we would be wise to heavily discount them in favor of the GFS and ECMWF.


Figure 3. GFS ensemble members from the GEFS run on 06Z Friday, October 2, lean heavily toward an offshore track for Joaquin as depicted in the official NHC forecast, although a few members still bring Joaquin along a looping onshore path near the U.S. East Coast. On the right-hand side are the ensembles’ projected tracks for Invest 90L. Image credit: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.

The official NHC forecast track as of 11:00 am EDT Friday keeps Joaquin hundreds of miles away from the U.S. East Coast, and NHC has enough confidence in this track that the “key points” section of its latest forecast discussion does not mention any potential for a U.S. landfall. The persistence of a few model outliers should not be a particular cause for concern at this point, but it does remind us that the upper-level features that will steer Joaquin are complex and dynamic. The two main influences on Joaquin’s track remain the upper low now cutting off over the Southeast U.S. and Invest 90L, located more than 1000 miles east of Joaquin. 90L originated from an upper-level low that has incorporated remnants of former Tropical Storm Ida. The NHC is giving 90L an 80% chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours as it drifts northward. The presence of 90L is creating a pathway for Joaquin to head northeast.

It appears that the strong jet stream diving around the Southeast low will kick eastward around the base of the low over the next couple of days, pushing the eastern part of the low offshore. Together with the influence of slowly developing 90L, this should keep Joaquin moving on a north to northeast track Friday and Saturday. As Figure 3 suggests, a more northeastward motion would lend confidence in the current expectation of an offshore track, while any significant component of motion toward the west today and Saturday would keep open the door for the far-less-likely possibility of a track hooking around the Southeast upper low. We’ll be watching the 12Z Friday model guidance closely and will have more on the forecast for Joaquin in our afternoon update.


Figure 4. Projected rainfall (in inches) for the 72-hour period from 12Z (8 am EDT) Friday, October 2, 2015, to Monday, October 5. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.

Epic rainfall likely for South Carolina
The latest 3-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is calling for 10 – 15″ inches of rain for the majority of South Carolina, including the cities of Charleston and Columbia.

This forecast assumes that Hurricane Joaquin will not come anywhere close to the state. The rain will be due to what meteorologists call a “Predecessor Rain Event” (PRE) (see this paper on them, h/t to Stu Ostro of TWC: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MWR3243.1). In a Predecessor Rain Event, tropical moisture well out ahead of a landfalling tropical cyclone interacts with a surface front and upper-level trough to produce heavy rainfall, often with significant inland flooding. The PRE can develop well to the left or right of the eventual track of the tropical cyclone. Slow-moving Hurricane Joaquin is perfectly positioned to transport a strong low-level flow of super-moist tropical air that has water vapor evaporated from record-warm ocean waters north of the Bahamas westwards into the Southeast U.S. Once this moisture hits land, it will encounter a cut-off upper low pressure system aloft, with a surface front beneath it, which will lift the moist air, cooling it, and forcing epic amounts of rainfall to fall. The air will also be moving up in elevation from the coast to the Piedmont and Appalachians, which lifts the air and facilitates even more precipitation. Satellite imagery is already hinting at development of this connection of moisture between Joaquin and the Southeast low and frontal system.


Figure 5. The maximum rainfall predicted to fall in any 24-hour period during the 5-day period from 5 am EDT October 2 to 5 am EDT October 7, according to a high-resolution Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model run done by MetStat, Inc. (http://www.metstat.com.) In some areas of North Carolina and South Carolina, 24-hour rainfall amounts one would expect to fall only once in a thousand years are predicted. MetStat computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 8, published in 2013 (http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/.) MetStat does not supply their precipitation recurrence interval forecasts or premium analysis products for free, but anyone can monitor the real-time analysis (observed) at: http://metstat.com/solutions/extreme-precipitation-index-analysis/ or on their Facebook page.

Using about a century of precipitation records, NOAA has constructed a Precipitation Frequency Data Server, which estimates how often we might expect to see extreme rainfall events recur.  According to NOAA’s Precipitation Frequency Data Server, these could be 1-in-1000 year rains for some locations. (Hydrologists would refer to a 1-in-1000-year rain as having a typical “recurrence interval” of 1000 years. The idea is that such events are not always separated by 1000 years; the same amount of rain could conceivably occur the very next year, or might not occur until thousands of years later.) The three-day 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts for Charleston, Greenville and Columbia are 17.1″, 17.8″, and 14.2″, respectively. The 24-hour 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts for Charleston, Greenville and Columbia are 14.8″, 15.9″, and 12.5″, respectively.

The storm to beat in South Carolina is Tropical Storm Jerry of 1995, which dumped up to 18.51″ of rain over a small region of Southwest SC. The storm to beat in nearby eastern North Carolina is Hurricane Floyd, which dumped prodigious amounts of rain in mid-September 1999, less than a month after Hurricane Dennis had drenched the region. Floyd produced a broad stripe of 15″ – 20″ rains, with a maximum total of 24.06″ at a site five miles north of Southport, NC (about 30 miles east of the NC/SC border). To get such widespread multi-day totals outside of a tropical cyclone would be a monumental feat.  Averaged across the state as a whole, the wettest three calendar months in South Carolina weather history are July 1916 (14.41″), September 1924 (13.16″), and September 1928 (12.70″). All of these were related to tropical cyclones passing through or near the state. If the NWS precipitation forecasts are in the right ballpark, then the first few days of October 2015 might approach or even exceed these all-time monthly records for the entire state–without any help from a landfalling hurricane or tropical storm!

Texas and Oklahoma have already notched their wettest months on record (by far) this past May, and Illinois had its second-wettest month on record in June. Our warming climate is making intense short-term rains (such as the highest 1-day totals) even heavier in many parts of the United States and the world, although less research has been done on trends in monthly rainfall.

For more on the science of extremely heavy rainfall, see Bob Henson’s May 2015 post, The Rains of May and the Science of Recurrence Intervals.


Figure 6. Projected maximum flood category for the 24-hour period from noon EDT Friday, October 2, through Saturday, October 3, 2015. The worst impacts today through Saturday are expected through the southern part of the Chesapeake Bay. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.


Figure 7. Strong on-shore winds along the mid-Atlantic coast due to the pressure gradient between Hurricane Joaquin and a strong high pressure system over the Northeast U.S. were creating storm surge heights of 2 – 3′ in many locations, and over 3′ on Virginia’s Delmarva Peninsula. Image credit: Hal Needham.

Long-duration coastal flooding under way
The combination of Hurricane Joaquin, the Southeast U.S. low, and a strong ridge well to the north is leading to an unusually prolonged period of steady onshore flow and high surf along the U.S. East Coast from New Jersey southward to North Carolina. The highest-impact coastal flooding and beach erosion can be expected along the Virginia and Delaware coast, including Ocean City, MD, and the Hampton Roads area of VA, which includes Norfolk and Virginia Beach. The Wakefield, VA, NWS office is calling for several rounds of moderate to severe coastal flooding through the weekend. See the latest blog post from storm-surge expert Hal Needham for more details on this event.

We’ll have an update later this afternoon.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

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Bermuda Marine Forecast

This forecast covers an area out to 25 nautical miles from the coastline
Issued at 11:30 am – Sunday, October 04, 2015
The next scheduled update will be issued at 4:30 pm

Marine Synopsis –

**A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT** As Hurricane Joaquin’s makes its approach, winds increase tropical storm force to storm force this afternoon with a period of hurricane force winds, especially in the west, this evening into the night. Joaquin’s closest point of approach remains near 60 miles, with slow improvement during Monday.

Today –

Winds southeasterly 30 to 40 knots gusts to 50 knots, increasing 40 to 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots later in the afternoon…  Rain and showers with embedded thunderstorms and mainly poor visibility. Building southerly swells… Seas inside the reef 2 to 5 ft… Outside the reef 12 to 18 ft, building…  Sunrise: 7:14 am.

Tonight –

Winds southerly 40 to 50 knots gusts to 60 knots, increasing 55 to 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots, mainly in the west and in elevated areas, decreasing slowly and veering southwesterly overnight…  Rain and showers with embedded thunderstorms and mainly poor visibility. Southerly swells building high… Seas inside the reef 3 to 7 ft… Outside the reef 20 to 35 ft…  Sunset: 7:00 pm.

Monday –

Winds southwesterly 25 to 35 knots gusts to 45 knots, decreasing 20 to 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots by evening, further decreasing 18 to 24 knots with stronger gusts overnight…  Isolated to scattered showers, becoming isolated during the day, with fair to poor visibility… Seas inside the reef 2 to 5 ft… Outside the reef 12 to 20 ft, decreasing during the afternoon inside the reef 2 to 4 ft… Outside the reef 9 to 15 ft…  Sunrise: 7:15 am; Sunset: 6:59 pm.

Tuesday –

Winds southwesterly 16 to 22 knots, decreasing 12 to 18 knots during the morning…  Isolated showers with generally fair visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 7 to 11 ft…  Sunrise: 7:16 am; Sunset: 6:57 pm.

Wednesday –

Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, decreasing 12 to 18 knots during the afternoon…  Isolated to scattered showers with fair to poor visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 5 to 8 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:17 am; Sunset: 6:56 pm.

Thursday –

Winds westerly 12 to 18 knots…  Isolated showers with generally fair visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 2 ft… Outside the reef 5 to 8 ft…  Sunrise: 7:17 am; Sunset: 6:55 pm.


Tides at St George’s (for Great Sound tides, add 10 minutes):
High: 2:30 pm this afternoon: 1.1m/3.6ft, 2:57 am tonight: 1m/3.3ft
Low: 9:14 pm this evening: 0.4m/1.3ft, 9:20 am Monday: 0.4m/1.3ft
Sea Surface Temperature: 26.9°C/80.4°F
Meteorologist: Fred Byrley, Observer: Chris Black

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 021452

WTNT21 KNHC 041450
TCMAT1

HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 66.8W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT……. 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…….160NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 420SE 300SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 66.8W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 67.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 32.8N 65.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.8N 64.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.6N 62.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 38.4N 58.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 42.3N 45.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 200SE 200SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 46.4N 29.9W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 51.4N 19.7W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 66.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

There may be more warnings here: METAREA IV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/ South China Sea: Typhoon Mujigae 22W 03/1200Z 19.5N 113.4E, moving WNW 11 knots (JMA) – Published 03 Oct 2015 1500z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Mujigae 22W

(=CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1522
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TY 1522 (MUJIGAE)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 3 October 2015

<Analyses at 03/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N19°30′(19.5°)
E113°25′(113.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°35′(20.6°)
E111°35′(111.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N21°40′(21.7°)
E109°40′(109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23°30′(23.5°)
E108°20′(108.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 06/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N25°10′(25.2°)
E108°00′(108.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

HKO_banner_eng

tctrack_1519_en

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

(Updated at 20:45 on 3 Oct HKT)

In the past few hours, outer rainbands of Majigae brought heavy squally showers to Hong Kong. Winds occasionally reached gale force in the offshore areas and on high ground. Heavy squally showers are expected to continue to affect Hong Kong in the next few hours.

According to the present forecast track, Mujigae will be closest to Hong Kong from midnight to early tomorrow morning. Mujigae is expected to skirt around 300 kilometres southwest of Hong Kong.

Unless Mujigae adopts a more northerly track or intensifies significantly, the chance of issuing the Gale or Storm Signal No. 8 is not high. However, winds will occasionally reach gale force over the southwestern part of Hong Kong. The Observatory will closely monitor the evolution of Mujigae.

Rainstorm Warning Bulletin

Updated at 21:45

Amber Rainstorm Warning Signal Special Announcement issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 9:45 p.m.

The Rainstorm Warning Signal is now Amber. This means that heavy rain has fallen or is expected to fall generally over Hong Kong, exceeding 30 millimetres in an hour, and is likely to continue.

There will be flooding in some low-lying and poorly drained areas. People who are likely to be affected should take necessary precautions to reduce their exposure to risk posed by the heavy rain and flooding.

Heavy rain may bring about flash floods. People should stay away from watercourses. People who are likely to be affected by flooding should take necessary precautions to avoid losses.

Please listen to radio or watch television for traffic conditions and further announcements on the rainstorm.

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Oct, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon MUJIGAE (22W) currently located near 19.5 N 113.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

HKO – Hong Kong

Bulletin issued at 21:30 HKT 03/Oct/2015

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 031200 UTC, Typhoon Mujigae (1522) with central pressure 965 hectopascals was centred within 30 nautical miles of one nine point five degrees north (19.5 N) one one three point four degrees east (113.4 E) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 10 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 70 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 120 nautical miles.
Radius of over 47 knot winds 60 nautical miles.
Radius of over 63 knot winds 30 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 270 nautical miles over northern semicircle, 240 nautical miles elsewhere.

Forecast position and intensity at 041200 UTC
Two one point five degrees north (21.5 N)
One zero nine point nine degrees east (109.9 E)
Maximum winds 65 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 051200 UTC
Two three point eight degrees north (23.8 N)
One zero eight point four degrees east (108.4 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 061200 UTC
Dissipated over land.

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200
WTJP21 RJTD 031200
WARNING 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1522 MUJIGAE (1522) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970
HPA
AT 19.5N 113.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 20.6N 111.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 21.7N 109.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 23.5N 108.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 25.2N 108.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/ Japan/ Taiwan/ China: Typhoon Dujuan (21W) 25/2100Z near 20.5N 130.7E, moving NNW 7 knots (JTWC) – Updated 25 Sept 2015 2053z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Dujuan (21W)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Ishigakijima, Okinawa, Japan, Taiwan and China beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 25 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1521-00 25

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

TY 1521 (DUJUAN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 25 September 2015

<Analyses at 25/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N19°55′(19.9°)
E131°20′(131.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°05′(22.1°)
E129°05′(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°20′(23.3°)
E126°35′(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°00′(25.0°)
E122°50′(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 21W (Dujuan) Warning #17
Issued at 25/2100Z

wp2115 25

21W_250532sams

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251800Z — NEAR 20.2N 131.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 131.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 21.3N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 22.0N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 22.5N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 23.1N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z — 24.6N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 26.1N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 27.6N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 130.7E.
TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 417 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND
262100Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

Other Reports

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 25 Sep, 2015 18:00 GMT

Typhoon DUJUAN (21W) currently located near 20.2 N 131.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201521W 25A

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

15092603

WWJP25 RJTD 251800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 142E 42N 140E
44N 145E 51N 157E 60N 163E 60N 180E 38N 180E 40N 160E 40N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 39N 137E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 34N 146E EAST 20 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 52N 167E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 994 HPA AT 44N 170E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 14N 147E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 48N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 26N 162E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 132E TO 32N 135E 33N 141E 34N 146E 34N 150E
31N 153E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1521 DUJUAN (1521) 970 HPA AT 20.1N 131.0E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0900

WTJP21 RJTD 251800
WARNING 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1521 DUJUAN (1521) 970 HPA
AT 20.1N 131.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 22.1N 128.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 23.2N 125.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 24.6N 121.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.