Myanmar/ Bay Of Bengal: Tropical Depression 92B (Future CS Maarutha)150300Z 12.5N 88.3E, moving NNE 10.8kt (RSMC New Delhi)- Published 15 Apr 2017 1240z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression 92B

(Future Cyclonic Storm Maarutha)

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 15-04-2017


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 15TH APRIL 2017 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 15TH APRIL 2017
THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 20 KMPH DURING PAST 3 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 HRS UTC OF TODAY, THE 15TH APRIL, 2017 OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 12.5º N AND LONGITUDE 88.3 ºE, ABOUT 500 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MAYA BANDAR (ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS) AND 950 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KYAUKPYU (MYANMAR). THE SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS MOST LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST BETWEEN SITTWE (48062) AND SANDWAY (48080) BY FORENOON OF 17TH.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY IS T 1.5. THE CONVECTION HAS ORGANISED DURING PAST 12 HRS AND SHOWS CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH WELL DEFINED WRAPPING FROM EASTERN SECTOR. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIES OVER SOUTH AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 9.0 DEGREE NORTH TO 17.0 DEGREE NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.5 DEGREE EAST TO 95.0 DEGREE EAST. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 70 DEGREE CELCIUS. A SHIP LOCATED NEAR 11.4/91.9 REPORTED MSLP OF 1003.8 HPA AND WIND OF 1700/14 KTS. AVAILABLE SHIP AND BUOY DATA AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE TO BE ABOUT 1001 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS. MULTI-SATELLITE DERIVED WIND PRODUCTS SUGGEST HIGHER WINDS IN THE EASTERN SECTOR.
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND THE REGION OF DEPRESSION IS 30-320C. IT DECREASES TOWARDS NORTH MYANMAR COAST BECOMING 28-290C. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 100 KJ/CM2. IT ALSO DECREASES TOWARDS NORTH MYANMAR COAST BECOMING 60-80 KJ/CM2. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED DURING PAST 3 HOURS AND IS ABOUT 20-25 KNOTS (HIGH) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ABOUT 150 x 10-6 S-1 AND CONVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30 x 10-5 S-1 .THERE IS FAVOURABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LYING TO THE SOUHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 40 x 10-5 S-1 THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AT 200 HPA LEVEL RUNS ALONG 100N. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX LIES IN PHASE 7 WITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT WILL MOVE TO PHASE 8 DURING NEXT 3 DAYS WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING AMPLITUDE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) IMAGERY INDICATE INCURSION OF WARM MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. HENCE CONSIDERING ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES, WHILE OUTFLOW AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, VORTICITY AND TPW ARE FAVOURABLE, MJO AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE UNFAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AND THE SYSTEM MAY REACH UPTO THE INTENSITY OF DEEP DEPRESSION/CYCLONIC STORM.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEPRESSION INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION/ CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HRS. DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERING THE MOVEMENT, MOST OF THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARDS NORTH MYANMAR COAST DURING NEXT 48 HRS.
(M.MOHAPATRA)
HEAD-RSMC, NEW DELHI

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

ABIO10 PGTW 150200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/150200Z-151800ZAPR2017//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150051ZAPR2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 87.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 600
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 142121Z AMSU-B
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE LLCC HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AND IS NOW CIRCULAR IN SHAPE WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY
IN THE NORTHEAST WRAPPING IN. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN A FAIR ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25
KNOTS) OFFSET BY VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS)
AND DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A
(WTIO21 PGTW 150100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN

Other Sources

N Indian Ocean: TSR Storm Alert issued at 15 Apr, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ONE is currently located near 14.3 N 90.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). ONE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Myanmar
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cheduba (18.8 N, 93.7 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Sandoway (18.5 N, 94.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kyaukpyu (19.4 N, 93.6 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Myanaung (18.3 N, 95.3 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Bassein (16.7 N, 94.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Henzada (17.6 N, 95.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Sittwe (20.1 N, 93.1 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

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MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 151115
SPECIAL GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 0600 HOURS FROM 0600 UTC 15 APRIL 2017.

PARTI:-NO STORM WARNING:-

THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
MOVED NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 28 KMPH DURING PAST 06
HOURS
AND LAY CENTRED AT 1130 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE 15TH APRIL, 2017 OVER
EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 13.2
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 89.0 DEG E, ABOUT 420 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAYA
BANDAR (ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS) AND 840 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
KYAUKPYU (MYANMAR). THE SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER
INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS MOST LIKELY TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST BETWEEN SITTWE
AND SANDWAY (MYANMAR) BY FORENOON OF 17TH APRIL.

PART:-II:
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)
———————— ——————-
ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION:
1)W OF 56 DEG E : S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 56 DEG E TO 75 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N: S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 56 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
4)E OF 75 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N; NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/15
KTS TO THE E OF 78 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:
1)E OF 58 DEG E TO 74 DEG E AND S OF 6 DEG N: :SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 60 DEG E TO 75 DEG E AND S OF 7 DEG N: :6-4 NM(.)
2)REST AREA:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:
1) E OF 75 DEG E 0.5-2 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 0.5-1 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:
1)W OF 58 DEG E: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 58 DEG E TO 65 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
E/SE-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 58 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 58 DEG E TO 63 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
4)E OF 63 DEG E TO 65 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
5)E OF 65 DEG E TO 75 DEG E :NW/W-LYNW/W-LY 05/15 KTS(.)
6)E OF 75 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N: NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS
BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E OF 78 DEG E(.)
7)E OF 75 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: W-LY 05/15 KTS
II)WEATHER:
1)E OF 64 DEG E AND S OF 6 DEG N ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 64 DEG E AND S OF 6 DEG N :8-6 NM(.)
3)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT
1)W OF 75 DEG E: 0.5-1 MTR(.)
2)E OF 75 DEG E: 0.5-3 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION
S/SW-LY 05/15 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 62 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT 0.5-2 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION
1)W OF 65 DEG E AND S OF 20 DEG N:ANTICYCLONIC 05/15 KTS(.)
2)N OF 20 DEG N: S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 65 DEG E: N/NW-LY 10/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E
AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:
1)CYCLONIC :20/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:
1)E OF 85 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 85 DEG E : :3-2 NM (.)
2)W OF 85 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT 3-4 MTR
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION :CYCLONIC :20/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:
1)W OF 84 DEG E :FAIRLY WIDESPREAD(.)
2)E OF 84 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)W OF 84 DEG E :4-3 NM(.)
2)E OF 84 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 3-4 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION :CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER
1)E OF 83 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)W OF 83 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 83 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)
2)W OF 83 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT 3-4 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER
1)E OF 83 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)W OF 83 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 83 DEG E : 3-2 NM
2)W OF 83 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:3-4 NM
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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India/Bay Of Bengal: Tropical Cyclone 03B HUDHUD 121500Z nr 18.4N 82.5E, moving NW at 8 knots (JTWC) – Updated 121014 1521z (UTC)

 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM Hudhud

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0314.gif

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03B_121130sams.jpg

WTIO31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (HUDHUD) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (HUDHUD) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121200Z — NEAR 18.0N 82.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 82.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 19.6N 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 21.7N 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z — 24.3N 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 82.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (HUDHUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
TC 03B MADE LANDFALL NEAR VISAKHAPATNAM AT ABOUT 12/07Z AND HAS
CONTINUED TO TRACK INLAND WHILE WEAKENING. A 121108Z SSMIS IMAGE
DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER,
THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
RECENT MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS. TC
03B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN RE-CURVING POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS FORECAST TO RE-ORIENT AS A
DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN INDIA. THE DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 03B IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU
36. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

TSR N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 12 Oct, 2014 6:00 GMT

Super Cyclonic Storm HUDHUD (03B) currently located near 17.5 N 83.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kakinada (17.0 N, 82.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
        probability for TS is 65% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

News Reports

At least three people were killed Sunday when Cyclone Hudhud slammed into India’s east coast packing winds of almost 200 kilometres (125 miles) per hour, ripping down power cables and forcing roads and railways to shut.

Around 370,000 people living along the eastern coastline were evacuated before the storm hit around 11.30 am (0600 GMT) on Sunday morning, as authorities tried to avoid mass casualties. “We have had three deaths since this morning,” said Natrajan Prakasam, a Disaster Management Commission official in the worst-hit state of Andhra Pradesh in southeast India. Two people were crushed by falling trees, while the third was killed when a wall collapsed in heavy rains, he told AFP. India placed its navy and coastguard on high alert ahead of the storm and advised residents to stay indoors as the cyclone passed by, warning of large waves known as storm surges. Some flights were cancelled while bus and train services in the worst affected areas were suspended. The head of the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) said the main highway in the port city of Visakhapatnam, which was in the eye of the storm as it hit, was strewn with fallen trees and electricity pylons. “The two big challenges facing the NDRF team are clearing roads and evacuation and rescue work,” he added. India’s eastern coast and neighbouring Bangladesh are routinely hit by bad storms between April and November that cause deaths and widespread property damage. The region is populated by fishermen and small-scale farmers, many of whom live in flimsy huts with thatched roofs or shanties.

Sunday, 12 October, 2014 at 09:50 UTC RSOE

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0900

WTIN01 DEMS 120900
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 12 OCTOBER 2014
—————————————————-
PART I:-STORM WARNING
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘HUDHUD’ OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WESTNORTHWESTWARDS AND
LAY CENTRED AT 1730 HRS. IST OF YESTERDAY,THE 11TH OCTOBER
2014 NEAR LATITUDE 16.2ON AND LONGITUDE 84.8OE
ABOUT 230 KMS SOUTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM AND 340 KMS
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GOPALPUR(.)IT THEN MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS
AND LIES CENTERED AT 0830 HRS IST OF TODAY,THE 12TH
OCTOBER 2014,NEAR LATITUDE 17.4ON AND LONGITUDE 83.8OE
ABOUT 60 KMS EASTSOUTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM(.)
THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND
CROSS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST CLOSE TO VISHAKHAPATNAM
WITHIN A FEW HOURS(.)
PART II:-WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)

A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 55 DEG E:-SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E:-NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC SW-LY
TO THE E OF 75 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 55 DEG E:-WSW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E:-NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY
TO THE E OF 68 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)0.5-1 M(.)

A2 ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG.E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E AND
S OF 15 DEG N(.)REST AREA FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM TO THE S OF 05 DEG N AND
S OF 15 DEG N(.)REST AREA 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E AND
S OF 15 DEG N(.)REST AREA FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM TO THE S OF 05 DEG N AND
S OF 15 DEG N(.)REST AREA 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 90 DEG E:S/SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
2)E OF 90 DEG E:SE/S-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)2-3 M 2)1-2 M(.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)N OF 05 DEG N AND W OF 85 DEG E:-SW/S-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
2)REST AREA VARIABLE(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)LESS THAN 0.5 M(.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS:-
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
S-LY 20/25 KTS BEC SE-LY TO THE N OF 16 DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M(.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 85 DEG E:S-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
2)E OF 85 DEG E:SSE-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 85 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 85 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)2-3 M(.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

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Arabian Sea/ Oman/ India : Tropical Cyclone NANAUK 02A 131200Z nr 19.8 N 62.4 E, moving WNW at 6.4 knots Weakened to a Depression(RSMC New Delhi) – Updated 130614 1737z

Tropical Cyclone NANAUK (2A)

10/7/2014 to 13/7/2014

 

Weather Underground

(Image: wunderground.com) TC Nanauk (Click image to visit Weather Underground)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image to visit Weather Underground)

RSMC New Delhi

mapimage

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

 

FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAY PYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA ( BANGLADESH )
STORM STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN) +
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM ‘NANAUK’ ADVISORY NO. TWENTY ONE ISSUED AT 1400 UTC OF 13TH JUNE

TH
2014 BASED ON 1200 UTC CHARTS OF 13 JUNE 2014

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED ABOUT 12 KMPH DURING PAST 6 HOURS, WEAKENED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT
0
1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 13 JUNE, 2014 OVER WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH AND
0
LONGITUDE 62.4 EAST, ABOUT 1100 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI(43003), 850 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
VERAVAL(42909) AND 370 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND (41288). THE SYSTEM WOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN FURTHER INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA
DURING NEXT 24 HRS

ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 1.5. THE CLOUD PATTERN
IS SHEAR PATTERN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS IS
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM
CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITH INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER THE ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN
0 0 0 0
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH TO 22.0 NORTH LONGITUDES 58.0 EAST TO 64.0 EAST. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP
0
TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT MINUS 78 C.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 994 HPA.

THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 2100 UTC OF 13 JUNE 2014.

Phone: (91) 11-24652484 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.co

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0214.gif

 

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/02A_130530sams.jpg

 

 

WTIO31 PGTW 130900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK) WARNING NR 014A RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK) WARNING NR 014A RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
130600Z — NEAR 21.3N 64.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 64.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 21.8N 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 22.2N 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 64.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) CLEARLY SHOWS THE FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS DRIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) BY OVER
200 NM AND HAS BEGUN TO UNRAVEL. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS THE CDO
FEATURE REMAINS EXPANSIVE AND DEEP AS STRONG OUTFLOW – GENERATED BY
THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET WINDS – PROVIDE EXCELLENT VENTILATION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES
AND FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (40-50
KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DECOUPLED FROM ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND DRIFT POLEWARD WITH THE
850 MB FLOW AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE, TYPICAL
WITH RAPIDLY WEAKENING VORTICES, HAS BECOME WIDELY SPREAD, LENDING
LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

WTIN01 DEMS 130910

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 13 JUNE 2014
———————————————-
PART I:- STORM WARNING (.)
PART II:-THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘NANAUK’ OVER EAST CENTRAL AND ADJOINING
WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTERED
AT 1200 UTC OF YESTERDAY THE 12TH JUNE 2014 OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA(.) IT FURTHER MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS
AND NOW LIES CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 13TH JUNE 2014 WITHIN
HALF A DEGREE OF LAT. 18.7°N AND LONG. 62.7°E. THE SYSTEM WOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY.
THE FEEBLE OFF SHORE TROUGH AT MEAN SEA LEVEL NOW EXTENDS FROM
MAHARASHTRA COAST TO KERALA COAST(.)
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)

A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:-WSW-LY 10/15 KTS.(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:-SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS.(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)3-4 M (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:-WSW-LY 10/15 KTS.(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:-SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS.(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)3-4 M (.)

A2 ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
SW/S-LY 35/40 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO THE N OF 18 DEG N AND
W OF 66 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE W OF 65 DEG E(.)
REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-2-1 NM TO THE W OF 65 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- MORE THAN 5 M(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
SW/S-LY 35/40 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO THE N OF 18 DEG N AND
W OF 63 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE W OF 63 DEG E(.)
REST AREA FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-2-1 NM TO THE W OF 63 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- MORE THAN 5 M(.)

A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 25/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)4-5 M(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 25/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)4-5 M(.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS:-
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 15 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 15 DEG N:WSW-LY 20/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO
THE E OF 90 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 15 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 15 DEG N:WSW-LY 20/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO
THE E OF 90 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

OMAN MARINE FORECAST http://met.gov.om/eng/marine_forecast.php

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  MaharasthraComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Ratnagiri
High waves in the range of 3.0 – 4.2 meters are predicted during 17:30 hrs on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hrs on 15-06-2014 along the coast from Malvan to Vasai of Maharashtra coast.
Winds will be mainly southwesterly, speed 45-50 kmph temporarily/momentarily reaching 60 kmph in gusts/squall.
Sea will be rough with southwesterly waves.
Fishermen are advised not to go out in the sea during next 24 hours.
Due to high swell propagation, combined with high tide, chances of wave surges are possible around 13:30 hrs on 14/06/2014 along the coast of Maharashtra.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Vasai

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Gujarat
High waves in the range of 3 -4.3 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along the coast from Jakhau to Diu Head of Gujarat coast.
Wind will be 35 to 45 kmph from southewesterly direction wind speed in gust may temporarily reach 55 kmph. Sea will be rough with waves from southewesterly direction.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during the same period.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Okha

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  KarnatakaComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Karwar
High waves in the range of 3 – 3.8 meters are predicted during 1730 hrs on 13-06-2014 to 2330 hrs on 15-06-2014 along the coast from Mangalore to Karwar of Karnataka coast.
Strong onshore winds from South Westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely along off Karnataka coast.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Karwar

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  LakshadweepComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Agatti
High waves in the range of 3.0 -4.1 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along Lakshadweep Islands between Minicoy to Bitra.
Strong onshore winds from westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely over Lakshadweep area.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Minicoy

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  KeralaComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Kollam
High waves in the range of 3.0 – 3.5 meters are forecasted during 1730 hours on 13-06-2014 to 2330 hours of 15-06-2014 along the Kerala coast between Vilinjhinjam to Kasargod.
Strong onshore winds from westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely along off Kerala coast.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Kasargod

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Tamil Nadu
High waves in the range of 2.5 – 3.1 meters are predicted during 1730 hrs on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hrs on 15-06-2014 along the Kolachal to Kilakarai of Southern Tamil Nadu.
Strong offshore winds from south westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely off Tamil Nadu coast.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Kolachal

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  AndamanComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Portblair
High waves in the range of 2.5 – 3.3 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along the west coast of Andaman Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Coco Channel.
Under the influence of strong south west monsoon current, strong south westerly wind speed exceeding 55kmph and generally rough to very rough likely along and off A & N coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

Significant Wave Height
Port-Blair

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Nicobar
High waves in the range of 2.5 – 3.2 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 12-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 14-06-2014 along the west coast of Nicobar Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Great Channel.
Under the influence of strong south west monsoon current, strong south westerly wind speed exceeding 55kmph and generally rough to very rough likely along and off A & N coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

Significant Wave Height
Car-Nicobar

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Goa
High waves in the range of 3.0 -3.9 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along the coast of Goa between Vengurla to Vasco.
Fishermen are advised not to go out in the sea during next 24 hours.

Significant Wave Height
Vengurla
images
AVHRR Image

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India/Bay of Bengal: Low Pressure Area MADI (RSMC New Delhi) Tropical Cyclone 120300Z nr 11.9N 81.5E, moving SW at 10 knots (JTWC) Final Warning- 121213 1102z

Tropical Cyclone Madi (JTWC)

 

 

= Tropical Storm (below Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category)

Low Pressure Area (RSMC NEW DELHI)

 

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

(Image: IMD) Chennai Doppler Radar (Click image for animation/source)

 

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 12 -12 -2013
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC.
THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
OFF TAMILNADU COAST.
BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA :-BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE CONVECTION OVER
SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA,
BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER EASTCENTRAL & SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL,
ARABIAN SEA :-NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
RIDGE LINE:-RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 14.0N OVER THE INDIAN REGION.

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0613.gif

 

 

WTIO31 PGTW 120300

 

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (MADI) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (MADI) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
120000Z NEAR 12.2N 82.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 82.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z 10.9N 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z 9.9N 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 81.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (MADI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A DEVOLVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MINIMALLY
FLARING CONVECTION WHILE STEADILY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST. A
RECENT 112354Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS WEAKENING STRUCTURE
AS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. TC 06B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STEADILY TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN, AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT,
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND LAND INTERACTION DISSIPATE THE
SYSTEM BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 12,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIA AND
FURTHER DEVOLVE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120000Z IS 13 FEET.//
NNNN

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/06B_081730sair.jpg

 

END

 

Extreme weather could become norm around Indian Ocean, say scientists http://tinyurl.com/knpzqlf

 

MARITIME

 

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0900

 

WTIN01 DEMS 120900
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 12 DECMBER 2013

PART I:-STORM WARNING (.)
DEPRESSION WEAKEN INTO WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER SW BAY OF BENGAL,AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY(.)
IT FURTHER MOVED SW-WARDS AND LIES OVER SW BAY OF
BENGAL OFF NORTH TAMILNADU COAST(.)
PART II :-(.)
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA (VIII)(.)
ARB: A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOUR
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)N OF 05 DEG N:-
I)W OF 70 DEG E:N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)E OF 70 DEG E:NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC
TO THE E OF 72 DEG E(.)
2)S OF 05 DEG N:NW-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)I)1-2 M II)0.5-1 M 2)1-2 M(.)

 

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOUR
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)N OF 05 DEG N:-
I)W OF 70 DEG E:N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)E OF 70 DEG E:NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC
TO THE E OF 72 DEG E(.)
2)S OF 05 DEG N:NW-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)I)1-2 M II)0.5-1 M 2)1-2 M(.)
A2 ARABIAN SEA :-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- 1-2 M (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- 1-2 M (.)
BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS (.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-ISOLATED RA/TS TO THE S OF 13 DEG N(.)
REST AREA FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-8-6 NM TO THE S OF 13 DEG N(.)
REST AREA 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-ISOLATED RA/TS TO THE S OF 13 DEG N(.)
REST AREA FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-8-6 NM TO THE S OF 13 DEG N(.)
REST AREA 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)

 

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

 

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

 

High Wind-Wave Alert

 

 

 

Issue Date :11-12-2013 Region : Tamil NaduComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Pondicherry
High wind waves in the range of 3.0- 3.6 meters are predicted during 17:30 on 11-12-2013 to 23:30 12-12-2013 along the Nagapattinam to Pulicat of Tamil Nadu coast. The forecasted wind speeds range from around 10 m/sec to 18 m/sec. The forecasted currents vary in the range of 100 to 130 cm/sec., at most of the locations close to the coast. The forecasted swell heights vary in the range of 2.0- 2.5 m.Under the influence of this system, rainfall at a few places would occur over coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry during next 48 hrs.

Fishermen along and off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry coasts are advised to be cautious while venturing into sea and should not venture into deep sea.

images
images
Currents

Swell

Significant Wave Height

 

Pondichery

 

High Wind-Wave Alert

 

 

 

Issue Date :11-12-2013 Region : Andhra PradeshComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Vizag
High wind waves between 3.0- 3.6 meters are forecasted from 1730 hrs of 11-12-2013 to 2330 hrs of 12-12-2013 along the Andhra coast between Kakinada to Durgarajupatnam. The forecasted wind speeds range from around 10 m/sec to 15 m/sec. The forecasted currents vary in the range of 100 to 130 cm/sec., at most of the locations close to the coast. The forecasted swell heights vary in the range of 1.5 -2.3 m.Under the influence of this system, rainfall at a few places would occur over coastal southern Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hrs.

Fishermen along and off southern Andhra Pradesh coasts are advised to be cautious while venturing into sea and should not venture into deep sea.

images
images
Currents

Swell

Significant Wave Height

Kakinada