Atlantic Ocean: Post-Tropical Cyclone OSCAR 312100Z 39.3N 49.6W, moving NNE ~30.2kt 976mb (NHC FL) – Updated 31 Oct 2018 2300Z (GMT/UTC)

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR

Oscar is a storm equiv to a CAT1 Hurricane on the Saffir Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale

…..OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE…
…HIGH SURF TO SUBSIDE ON BERMUDA TONIGHT…….Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320
miles (520 km) –
NHC FL

#FaeroeIslands #Iceland #Scotland #Ireland #NorthernIreland be aware!

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

143825_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018

…OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE…
…HIGH SURF TO SUBSIDE ON BERMUDA TONIGHT…
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…39.3N 49.6W
ABOUT 540 MI…870 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 975 MI…1570 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 35 MPH…56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…976 MB…28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar
was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 49.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near
35 mph (56 km/h), and a motion toward the northeast with some
decrease in forward speed is expected during the next two to three
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast during the next
several days, Oscar is expected to remain a powerful post-tropical
cyclone over the north-central and northeastern Atlantic Ocean into
the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320
miles (520 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Oscar that are affecting Bermuda will
subside tonight. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Oscar. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the
Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

 

 

Canadian Hurricane Centre

 

 

No statements currently issued.

BWS – Tropical Update Bulletin
POST TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR
IS NOT A THREAT TO BERMUDA

Advisory #20 (last advisory),
6 pm Wed, Oct 31, 2018 (2100 UTC Wed, Oct 31, 2018)
Refresh browser for latest image
KEY: Blue = 34-50 kts, Yellow = 50-64 kts, and Red = 64 kts and greater
Diagonal shading indicates fringe winds (34kts or greater surrounding the storm’s core)
Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs (3 days) has passed.
Current Position: 39.3N 49.6W approx. 849 nm NE of Bermuda
Recent Movement: NNE or 30 degrees at 30 kt
Central Pressure: 976 mb / 28.82 in
Max Winds: 65kt gusts 80kt
BWS Tropical Update Bulletins (TUBs), in line with NHC updates, are normally issued every 6 hours (03, 09, 15, and 21 UTC). When a tropical watch or warning is in effect for Bermuda, intermediate TUBs are issued at 3-hour intervals between the regular TUBs (06, 12, 18, and 00 UTC). Additionally, TUBs may be issued at any time due to significant changes in warnings or in the cyclone.

 

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 31 Oct, 2018 15:00 GMT

Hurricane OSCAR is currently located near 36.6 N 51.6 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). OSCAR is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. OSCAR is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
  the Faeroe Islands
        probability for TS is 95% in about 93 hours
    Iceland
        probability for TS is 90% in about 93 hours
    Scotland
        probability for TS is 90% in about 93 hours
    Ireland
        probability for TS is 75% in about 93 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for TS is 65% in about 93 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Torshavn (62.0 N, 6.8 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 93 hours
    Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 93 hours
    Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 93 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 93 hours
    Lerwick (60.2 N, 1.2 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 93 hours
    Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 93 hours
    Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 93 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 93 hours
    Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 93 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 93 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 93 hours
    Reykjavik (64.1 N, 21.9 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 93 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 93 hours
    Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 93 hours
    Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 93 hours
    Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 93 hours
    Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours
    Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
 Jan Mayen
        probability for TS is 50% in about 93 hours
    England
        probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours
    the Isle of Man
        probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 93 hours
    Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours
    Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

Probability of tropical storm winds to 69 hours lead

Probability of tropical storm winds to 93 hours lead

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT21 KNHC 312033
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
2100 UTC WED OCT 31 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 49.6W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 70NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT…….230NE 240SE 240SW 280NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 420SE 330SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 49.6W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 50.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 42.6N 46.6W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
50 KT…100NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT…300NE 330SE 240SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 46.8N 41.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT… 90NE 110SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT…330NE 360SE 390SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 50.7N 35.1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 100SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT…300NE 420SE 390SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 54.2N 28.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 150SW 60NW.
34 KT…360NE 450SE 420SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 59.5N 15.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 180SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT…360NE 480SE 540SW 450NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 67.0N 2.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 49.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON OSCAR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

 

Canada Hurricane Centre

Marine Weather Warnings

FZNT01 KWBC 312139
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
2230 UTC WED OCT 31 2018

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
AMERICAN ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.SHTML

PAN PAN

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC OCT 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC NOV 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC NOV 02.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING…
.POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR NEAR 39.3N 49.6W 976 MB AT 2100 UTC
OCT 31 MOVING NNE OR 030 DEG AT 30 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 240 NM S
SEMICIRCLE…230 NM NE QUADRANT AND 280 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 330 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS…360 NM NW
QUADRANT AND 420 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 42 FT. ELSEWHERE
FROM 31N TO 44N BETWEEN 37W AND 64W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR NEAR 46.8N
41.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 330 NM NE QUADRANT…360 NM SE QUADRANT…390
NM SW QUADRANT…AND 270 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 600 NM NE…660 NM SE…960 NM SW…AND 360 NM NW
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 46 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 32N TO 54N BETWEEN
35W AND 54W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR E OF AREA NEAR
54.2N 28.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT…450 NM SE
QUADRANT…420 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 300 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 720 NM NE…660 NM SE…1440 NM SW…AND
540 NM NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 48 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 41N TO
58N BETWEEN 35W AND 45W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR NEAR 59.5N
15.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR NEAR 67.0N
2.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

…STORM WARNING…
.06 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 64N38W 993 MB. WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 30 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N37W 999 MB. N OF 64N AND E OF GREENLAND
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 22 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. WITHIN 60 NM E AND 120 NM SE
OF THE GREENLAND COAST WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER E OF AREA 50N31W 1001 MB MOVING E
30 KT AND SECOND CENTER 50N45W 1001 MB MOVING E 30 KT. WITHIN
360 NM SW QUADRANT OF MAIN CENTER AND 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF
SECOND CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.WITHIN 120 NM W AND SW OF THE GREENLAND COAST S OF 64N WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 240 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 40N60W TO
35N75W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 45N45W 1012 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST W AND NW OF A LINE FROM 31N70W TO 40N60W WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 TO 12 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 43N TO 47N
BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 46N TO 51N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.DENSE FOG. 48 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
FROM 40N TO 44N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.

.LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY NW OF A LINE FROM 62N62W TO 67N53W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.HIGH 33N75W 1023 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N65W 1024 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 36N54W 1029 MB.

.HIGH 58N62W 1020 MB MOVING E 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 57N54W 1016 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC WED OCT 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC THU NOV 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC FRI NOV 02.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC OSCAR WELL N OF AREA. COLD FRONT FROM 31N52W TO 22N68W
THEN STATIONARY TO 20N75W. E OF FRONT TO A LINE FROM 31N40W TO
27N47W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. N OF 29N W OF
FRONT TO 60W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF
A LINE FROM 31N38W TO 23N53W TO 28N62W TO 26N72W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N43W TO 24N50W TO 22N57W
THEN STATIONARY TO 21N66W. N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO 37W S TO SW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF A LINE FROM
31N37W TO 27N45W TO 27N57W TO 31N62W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 11 FT IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 31N36W TO 22N48W TO
20N55W THEN DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 20N64W. N OF FRONT
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL.

.ATLC FROM 16N TO 26N E OF 39W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9
FT IN MIXED NE AND E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN 18 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.GULF OF MEXICO 18 HOUR FORECAST N OF 26N W OF 89W S WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N93W TO 25N98W. N OF 25N E
OF FRONT TO 85W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. W OF
FRONT NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N86W TO 22N92W TO 19N96W. W
OF A LINE FROM 23N93W TO 19N96W N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

Latest Watches, Warnings & Advisories

Small Craft Warning

Valid: This afternoon through This evening
Updated: 4:30 pm Wednesday, October 31, 2018
Small Craft Warning
Issued when winds of mean speed 20 to 33 knots and/or seas of 9 feet or greater are forecast to affect the marine area within the next 36 hours.
Please refer to the latest forecast for detailed information on conditions likely to affect Bermuda and the surrounding marine area. This is available by logging onto our website at www.weather.bm.

The above warning(s) will be updated as conditions warrant.

– Meteorologist: Ken Smith

 

FQNT21 EGRR 312000
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS BULLETIN FOR METAREA 1
ISSUED AT 2000 UTC ON WEDNESDAY 31 OCTOBER 2018
BY THE MET OFFICE, EXETER, UNITED KINGDOM
FOR THE PERIOD 2000 UTC ON WEDNESDAY 31 OCTOBER UNTIL
2000 UTC ON THURSDAY 01 NOVEMBER 2018

STORM WARNING
AT 311200UTC, NEW LOW MOVING RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST
EXPECTED 45 NORTH 45 WEST 968 BY 011200UTC. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STORM FORCE 10 IN THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE WEST CENTRAL SECTION AFTER 011600UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS
AT 311200UTC, NEW LOW MOVING RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST
EXPECTED 45 NORTH 45 WEST 968 BY 011200UTC. LOW 64 NORTH
28 WEST 990 EXPECTED 63 NORTH 30 WEST 999 BY SAME TIME.
LOW 51 NORTH 38 WEST 999 EXPECTED 48 NORTH 15 WEST 1008
BY THAT TIME. AT 311200UTC, LOW 59 NORTH 13 WEST 989
EXPECTED 62 NORTH 09 WEST 995 BY 011200UTC. LOW 65 NORTH
00 WEST 986 EXPECTED 68 NORTH 09 WEST 989 BY SAME TIME.
HIGH 66 NORTH 47 WEST 1021 DISSIPATING BY THAT TIME
AREA FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS

SOLE
NORTHWESTERLY BACKING WESTERLY 4 OR 5, BECOMING VARIABLE
4 LATER. MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR
GOOD

SHANNON ROCKALL
WEST OR NORTHWEST 5 OR 6. ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
LATER. SHOWERS. GOOD

BAILEY
CYCLONIC BECOMING NORTHWEST, 5 TO 7. MODERATE OR ROUGH.
SHOWERS. GOOD

FAEROES SOUTHEAST ICELAND
CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, BECOMING WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 5 OR
6 LATER. MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR
GOOD

EAST NORTHERN SECTION
CYCLONIC IN FAR NORTHWEST, OTHERWISE NORTHERLY OR
NORTHWESTERLY, 5 TO 7, BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5 LATER
IN WEST. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH FOR A
TIME IN FAR NORTHWEST. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR

WEST NORTHERN SECTION
IN NORTH, CYCLONIC 6 TO GALE 8, OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE
9 UNTIL LATER IN FAR NORTHWEST. ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH,
OCCASIONALLY HIGH FOR A TIME IN FAR NORTH. RAIN OR
SHOWERS, WITH SNOW IN FAR NORTHWEST. MODERATE OR POOR,
OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR IN FAR NORTHWEST.
IN SOUTH, NORTHWESTERLY BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5,
BECOMING VARIABLE 3 OR 4 LATER IN FAR SOUTH, THEN
BECOMING EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 5 OR 6 IN FAR SOUTH.
MODERATE OR ROUGH. SHOWERS, RAIN LATER IN FAR SOUTH.
GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR LATER IN FAR SOUTH

EAST CENTRAL SECTION
IN NORTH, NORTHWESTERLY 5 OR 6, BECOMING VARIABLE 3 OR 4,
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 7 LATER IN WEST. MODERATE OR
ROUGH. OCCASIONAL RAIN, FOG PATCHES. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR.
IN SOUTH, WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY, BACKING SOUTHERLY
LATER IN WEST, 5 TO 7. MODERATE OR ROUGH. OCCASIONAL
RAIN, FOG PATCHES. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY VERY
POOR

WEST CENTRAL SECTION
IN NORTH, NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 5 OR 6, BECOMING
CYCLONIC 6 TO GALE 8 LATER, OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9 IN
WEST. MODERATE OR ROUGH, BECOMING ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH
LATER. RAIN OR SHOWERS, FOG PATCHES. MODERATE OR POOR,
OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR.
IN SOUTH, SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7, BACKING SOUTHERLY 6 TO
GALE 8, INCREASING SEVERE GALE 9 OR STORM 10 LATER IN
SOUTHWEST. ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH, BECOMING VERY ROUGH OR
HIGH LATER IN SOUTHWEST. RAIN OR SHOWERS, FOG PATCHES.
MODERATE OR POOR, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR

DENMARK STRAIT
IN AREA NORTH OF 70 NORTH, NORTHERLY 6 TO GALE 8,
OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9 IN SOUTH. MODERATE OR ROUGH,
OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH IN SOUTH. OCCASIONAL SNOW, FAIR
LATER. MODERATE OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR, BECOMING GOOD
LATER. MODERATE OR SEVERE ICING WITH TEMPERATURES MS05 TO
MS08.
IN AREA SOUTH OF 70 NORTH, EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 6 TO
GALE 8, OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9 UNTIL LATER. VERY
ROUGH OR HIGH, BECOMING ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH LATER.
OCCASIONAL RAIN OR SNOW. MODERATE OR POOR, OCCASIONALLY
VERY POOR. MODERATE OR SEVERE ICING IN NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES MS03 TO MS05

NORTH ICELAND
IN NORTH, NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 7, INCREASING
GALE 8 OR SEVERE GALE 9 LATER. MODERATE OR ROUGH,
BECOMING ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH LATER. OCCASIONAL RAIN OR
SNOW. MODERATE OR POOR, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR. SEVERE OR
VERY SEVERE ICING DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST WITH
TEMPERATURES MS06 TO MS09.
IN SOUTH, NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 7, BECOMING CYCLONIC 6 TO
GALE 8 LATER, OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9 IN NORTHWEST.
ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN SOUTHEAST.
OCCASIONAL RAIN, WITH SNOW IN NORTHWEST. MODERATE OR
POOR, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR IN NORTHWEST. LIGHT TO
MODERATE ICING IN NORTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND MS02

NORWEGIAN BASIN
SOUTHWESTERLY BACKING SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY, 5 TO 7
INCREASING GALE 8 AT TIMES, DECREASING 3 OR 4 LATER IN
WEST. MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR
GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR

OUTLOOK FOR FOLLOWING 24 HOURS:
VIOLENT STORMS EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL SECTION. STORMS
EXPECTED IN EAST CENTRAL SECTION AND NORTH ICELAND. GALES
OR SEVERE GALES EXPECTED IN SHANNON, ROCKALL, BAILEY,
EAST NORTHERN SECTION, WEST NORTHERN SECTION, DENMARK
STRAIT AND NORWEGIAN BASIN
UNSCHEDULED STORM WARNINGS ARE BROADCAST VIA SAFETYNET
AND IN
BULLETIN WONT54 EGRR AVAILABLE VIA SOME INTERNET AND
FTPMAIL
OUTLETS=

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

=============================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Advertisements

Tanzania hunts homosexuals, threatens ’round-up’ – Reblogged from Erasing 76 Crimes

A Tanzanian official is threatening to launch a round-up of homosexuals starting next week. Paul Makonda, the governor of Dar-es-Salaam, said his anti-gay “ad hoc team” will “get their hands on them next Monday.” To prepare for the round-up, he asked the general public yesterday to call him with the names of homosexuals living in…

via Tanzania hunts homosexuals, threatens ’round-up’ — Erasing 76 Crimes

Philippines/ Taiwan/ China: Severe Tropical Storm YUTU 31W 312100Z near 19.2N 116.9E, moving NNW at 04kt (JTWC) – Updated 30 Oct 2018 2110Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm YUTU 31W
(Rosita in Philippines)

“ROSITA” HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM AND IS NOW OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR). – PAGASA

Philippines, Taiwan  and China  beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 15 FEET. – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 31W (Yutu) Warning #42
Issued at 31/2100Z

wp31186

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 31W (YUTU) WARNING NR 042

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
311800Z — NEAR 18.9N 117.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 117.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 19.9N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 360 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z — 20.7N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z — 21.5N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z — 22.1N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:

312100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 116.9E.

TROPICAL STORM 31W (YUTU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED

NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS

OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//
NNNN

 

 

STS 1826 (Yutu)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 31 October 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 31 October>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N18°55′ (18.9°)
E116°55′ (116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 440 km (240 NM)
SE 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 1 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N20°10′ (20.2°)
E116°30′ (116.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 1 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N20°50′ (20.8°)
E116°30′ (116.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 2 November>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N21°25′ (21.4°)
E116°40′ (116.7°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

 

Philippines

PAGASA logoPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST)

Tropical Storm”Rosita”
Tropical Cyclone: ALERT

Issued at 05:00 pm, 31 October 2018
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at this:00 weather disturbance.)

 

“ROSITA” HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM AND IS NOW OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR).

  • Light to moderate rains due to the trough of Severe Tropical Storm “ROSITA” will be experienced over Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, Zambales, Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands. Residents in these areas, especially those living near river channels, in low-lying areas and mountainous areas, are advised to take appropriate actions against possible flooding and landslides, coordinate with the local disaster risk reduction and management offices.
  • Fisherfolks and those with small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the western seaboards of Luzon and the northern seaboard of Northern Luzon.
Location of Eye/center

At 4:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm “ROSITA” was estimated based on all available data at 325 km West of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (OUTSIDE PAR) (18.3 °N, 117.5 °E )

Movement

Moving West Northwest at 15 kph

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 85 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 105 kph

Forecast Position
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow afternoon): 585 km West of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)(20.0°N, 116.4°E)
  • 48 Hour(Friday afternoon):585 km West of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)(21.2°N, 116.4°E)
Warning Signal
No Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal
With this development and unless re-entry occurs, this is the final warning for this weather disturbance.
Tropical Cyclone Hourly Position
Date Time Intensity Location Reference
2018-10-31 4:00 AM Severe Tropical Storm 17.1°N 118.7°E 210 km Northwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan

 

TAIWAN

Tropical Storm YUTU (201826)
Analysis
1800UTC 31 October 2018
Center Location 18.90N 116.90E
Movement  NNW  14km/hr
Minimum Pressure  990 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 23 m/s
Gust 30 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km

Forecast
12 hours valid at:
0600UTC 01 November 2018
Center Position 20.10N 116.50E
Vector to 12 HR Position
NNW 12 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  990 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 23 m/s
Gust 30 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 70% probability circle 60km
24 hours valid at:
1800UTC 01 November 2018
Center Position 20.90N 116.40E
Vector to 24 HR Position
N 7 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  995 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 20 m/s
Gust 28 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  150km
Radius of 70% probability circle 100km
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION AFTER 36 HOURS

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 31 Oct, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm YUTU is currently located near 18.4 N 117.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). YUTU is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    China
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
    Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 65% currently
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
   Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/seawarn/

 

WWJP27 RJTD 311800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 311800.
WARNING VALID 011800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS
PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 25N 128E 23N 128E 19N 120E 23N 115E
27N 120E 25N 128E.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 49N 164E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING ESE 25 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 500 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 6 HOURS.
ANOTHER LOW 988 HPA AT 46N 174E
MOVING ENE 25 KNOTS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 45N 160E 50N 160E
60N 164E 60N 180E 40N 180E 40N 170E 45N 170E 45N 160E.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 35N 120E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 24N 165E EAST SLOWLY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N 146E TO 34N 168E 33N 174E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1826 YUTU (1826) 990 HPA AT 18.9N 116.9E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

=============================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico / Pacific Ocean: Hurricane WILLA 24E 231500Z near 21.4N 106.9W, moving NNE ~4.8kt (NHC FL) – Updated 23 Oct 2018 1535Z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE WILLA 24E

WILLA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

……AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CORE OF WILLA PASSING OVER LAS ISLAS MARIAS
MEXICO…
…EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO… – NHC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

 

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 26 FEET- JTWC

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 231500
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

…AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CORE OF WILLA PASSING OVER LAS ISLAS MARIAS
MEXICO…
…EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.4N 106.9W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI…205 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…966 MB…28.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 106.9 West. Willa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster motion
toward the northeast is expected by this evening. On the forecast
track, the center of Willa will move over Las Islas Marias within
the next few hours, and make landfall within the hurricane warning
area along the west-central coast of mainland Mexico this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Willa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. While gradual weakening is forecast today,
Willa is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the
coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall tonight
and continuing into Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 966 mb (28.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of
Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches
possible.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over Las Islas Maria
today, and will spread into the hurricane warning area along
the coast of mainland Mexico this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are occurring on Las Islas Marias, and will continue to
spread northward along the coast of mainland Mexico within the
warning area today.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
Swells during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 23 Oct, 2018 15:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane WILLA is currently located near 21.4 N 106.9 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 110 kts (127 mph). WILLA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. WILLA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tecuala (22.4 N, 105.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
    Mazatlan (23.4 N, 106.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
        probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Durango (24.0 N, 104.7 W)
        probability for TS is 45% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Hurricane 24E (Willa) Warning #14
Issued at 23/1600Z

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PHNC 231600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 24E (WILLA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 24E (WILLA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 21.1N 107.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 107.1W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 22.7N 105.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 24.9N 102.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 26.7N 99.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

REMARKS:
231600Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 106.7W.
HURRICANE 24E (WILLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 877 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232200Z, 240400Z, 241000Z AND 241600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 23E (VICENTE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
NNNN

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTPZ24 KNHC 231500 RRA
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN… INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
… PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
… NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.9W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT……. 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…….110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.9W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.7N 105.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT…GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT… 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.9N 102.9W…INLAND

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Guatemala/ Mexico / Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm Vicente 23E 201600Z position near 14.3N 93.7W, moving WNW 06kt (JTWC) – Published 20 Oct 2018 1842Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Vicente 23E

…SMALL-SIZED VICENTE FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD…
…HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO…NHC

Guatemala and Mexico be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 9 FEET

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 23E (Vicente) Warning #05
Issued at 20/1600Z

ep2318

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PHNC 201600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
201200Z — NEAR 14.3N 93.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 93.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z — 14.2N 94.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 13.5N 96.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 13.3N 98.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 13.8N 100.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 16.5N 103.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 19.0N 106.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
201600Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 93.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1705 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
201200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND
211600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24E (TWENTYFOUR) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 201444
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

…SMALL-SIZED VICENTE FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD…
…HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…14.3N 93.6W
ABOUT 95 MI…155 KM WSW OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI…270 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southeastern and southern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Vicente.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 93.6 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general track
with a slight increase in forward speed is forecast during the next
36 to 48 hours. After that time, a turn to the northwest is
anticipated.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Through Thursday morning, Vicente is expected to produce
3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches across
southwest Guatemala and the Pacific coast of southern Mexico. This
rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides within mountainous terrain.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 20 Oct, 2018 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm VICENTE is currently located near 13.7 N 92.5 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). VICENTE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Guatemala
        probability for TS is 45% currently
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTPZ23 KNHC 201443 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1500 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 93.6W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 93.6W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 93.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.2N 94.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.5N 96.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.3N 98.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.8N 100.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 19.0N 106.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z…DISSIPATED

FZPN02 KWBC 201725
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 20.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 21.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 22.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING…
.LOW 51N157W 973 MB MOVING N 20 KT WILL TURN NW AFTER 24 HOURS.
WITHIN 120 NM S AND SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 18 TO
32 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM SE QUADRANT…AND 180 NM W AND SW
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 14 TO 27 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 300 NM NE…600 NM SE…360 NM SW…AND 180 NM NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 24 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N161W 970 MB. WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 13 TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM
52N TO 60N BETWEEN 143W AND 158W AND 180 NM E OF FRONT FRONT
FROM 59N141W TO 53N141W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 22
FT…EXCEPT E OF FRONT SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW INLAND 60N161W 987 MB. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 420 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 10
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
8 TO 12 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 53N174W 990 MB MOVING SE 30 KT. WITHIN 480 NM S AND SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 18 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N159W 989 MB. WITHIN 480 NM SW QUADRANT
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N149W 990 MB. BETWEEN 240 NM AND 720 NM
S AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 19 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 35N165E 1006 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S AND 240
NM E QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N180W 1002 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 39N162E 1006 MB. WITHIN 360 NM NE AND 240
NM N QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N175E 1004 MB. WITHIN 240 NM N
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 53N137W 996 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
58N140W TO LOW TO 53N137W TO 47N138W TO 40N142W. WITHIN 240 NM E
OF FRONT S OF LOW AND 120 NM E OF FRONT N OF LOW WINDS 25 TO 35
KT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT…HIGHEST N OF LOW.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 38N TO 45N BETWEEN 124W AND 128W N WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.LOW INLAND 64N146W 993 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS
N OF 55N BETWEEN 136W AND 150W AREA OF SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 10 TO 19 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW INLAND WITH ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

.LOW 58N166W 993 MB MOVING SW 10 KT. BETWEEN 180 NM AND 420 NM W
QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N170W 995 MB. WITHIN 300 NM W QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH
LOW 60N161W IN WARNINGS SECTION ABOVE.

.HIGH 48N135W 1028 MB MOVING NE 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH INLAND NEAR 56N125W 1026 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH MOVED INLAND.

.HIGH 39N133W 1025 MB MOVING S 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 36N135W 1021 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH S OF AREA.

.HIGH NEAR 30N173E 1022 MB MOVING E 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH NEAR 30N179E 1021 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH S OF AREA.

.HIGH 42N165E 1022 MB MOVING SE 25 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N178E 1021 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N165W 1021 MB.

.FORECASTER ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 20.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 21.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 22.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM WILLA NEAR 14.8N 105.7W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT
20 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
40 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 0 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 13 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 45 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 120 NM SE
AND 75 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO
8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE WILLA NEAR 15.3N 107.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N AND 60 NM S
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NW AND
180 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER AREA FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE WILLA NEAR 16.6N 108.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 70 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 75 NM SW
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 36 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM
10N TO 20N BETWEEN 104W AND 112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE WILLA NEAR 17.7N 109.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE WILLA NEAR 19.0N 109.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE WILLA NEAR 22.0N 107.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM VICENTE NEAR 14.3N 93.6W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT
20 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 20 NM OF CENTER.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 0 NM SE
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. REMAINDER WATERS WITHIN 120 NM
SE AND 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM VICENTE NEAR 13.5N 96.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS 12 FT OF GREATER
WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER AREA
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO
9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM VICENTE NEAR 13.8N 100.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 20 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 14 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 45 NM N AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 10N TO 16N
BETWEEN 96W AND 104W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM VICENTE NEAR 16.5N 103.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICENTE NEAR 19.0N 106.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT
IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 16N W OF 136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 16N W OF 138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.

.06 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 00N128W TO 02N120W TO 03.4S113W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 00N121W TO 01N112W TO 03.4S103W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 03.4S118W TO 02N110W TO
03.4S91W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW
SWELL.

.12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.

.36 HOUR FORECAST N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W…INCLUDING
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 16N95W TO 14N95.5W…
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SAT OCT 20…

.TROPICAL STORM VICENTE…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 30
NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W.

.TROPICAL STORM WILLA…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 12N
TO 19N BETWEEN 103W AND 109W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 13N91W. IT RESUMES FROM 14N95W TO
15N102W. THEN RESUMES FROM 14N110W TO 08N122W. ITCZ FROM 08N122W
TO 08N127W TO BEYOND 11N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
03N TO 08N E OF 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N
TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 116W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 12N W OF 132W.

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 20 2018.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 21 2018.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 22 2018.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW NEAR 09N162E 1009 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. WINDS INCREASING TO
20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER NE CIRCLE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 15N TO 03N W
OF 169E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST W OF FORECAST AREA NEAR 10N157W 1007
MB. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM OF
CENTER NE SEMICIRCLE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 12N156E 1004 MB. ASSOCIATED WINDS
DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS.

.LOW NEAR 11N147W 1008 MB MOVING NW SLOWLY. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG TSTMS FROM 15N TO 05N BETWEEN 150W AND 140W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 13N149W 1008 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 14N148W 1008 MB. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
16N144W. ASSOCIATED WINDS INCLUDED BELOW.

.TROUGH FROM 26N154W TO 30N153W NEARLY STATIONARY. ASSOCIATED
TSTMS INCLUDED BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.TROUGH FROM 25N145W TO 30N142W MOVING NW SLOWLY. ASSOCIATED
TSTMS INCLUDED BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH JUST N OF FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N174E 1022 MB MOVING E
SLOWLY. RIDGE FROM HIGH TO 28N179W TO 29N174W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH NEAR 30N179W 1021 MB. RIDGE FROM HIGH TO
30N170W AND FROM HIGH TO 23N160E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH NEAR 28N174E 1021 MB. RIDGE FROM HIGH TO
25N164E.

.MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N149W TO 07N157W TO 08N164W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH
AXIS.

.ITCZ FROM 08N164W TO 08N175W TO 05N175E. ISOLATED MODERATE
TSTMS WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE OF CONVERGENCE.

.OTHERWISE WINDS E TO NE 20 TO 25 KT FROM 20N TO 14N BETWEEN
165E AND 179W…AND ALSO FROM 17N TO 13N BETWEEN 147W AND 140W.
ADDITIONALLY WINDS INCREASING TO SE TO S 20 TO 25 KT OVER
FORECAST WATERS N OF 24N W OF 164E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS E TO NE 20 TO 25 KT FROM 18N TO 14N
BETWEEN 150W AND 140W. ALSO WINDS S TO SW 20 TO 25 KT OVER
FORECAST WATERS N OF 27N W OF 167E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS SE TO NE 20 TO 30 KT FROM 18N TO 14N
BETWEEN 155W AND 140W. REMAINING WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR
LESS.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS REMAINDER FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 19N TO 03N BETWEEN 162E AND 177W…AND
ALSO FROM 18N TO 02N BETWEEN 150W AND 140W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 17N TO 11N BETWEEN 152W
AND 142W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 21N TO 11N BETWEEN 154W
AND 140W.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER REMAINDER FORECAST AREA.

.ITCZ FROM 09N150W TO 06N159W TO 07N168W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE OF CONVERGENCE.

.OTHERWISE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30N146W TO 23N152W TO 17N162W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 17N TO 05N BETWEEN 170E AND
168W…AND ALSO OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 23N W OF 164E.
$$

.FORECASTER BEDAL. HONOLULU HI.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Yemen/ Oman/ Arabian Sea: Tropical Deep Depression LUBAN 140900Z near 15.9N 51.7°E, moving WNW ~8.09kt/15kmph (RSMC New Delhi) – Updated 14 Oct 2018 1612Z (GMT/UTC)

Deep Depression LUBAN

Cyclonic Storm, ‘LUBAN’ weakened into a deep depression over Yemen – IMD

Impacting Yemen & adjoining areas of Oman, Gulf of Aden and westcentral Arabian Sea

INDIA

 

 

IMD

India Meteorological Department
Earth System Science Organisation
(Ministry of Earth Sciences


BULLETIN NO. : 61 (ARB 04/2018)
TIME OF ISSUE: 1630 HOURS IST DATED: 14.10.2018
FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (FAX NO. 24643965/24699216/24623220)
TO: CONTROL ROOM, NDM, MINISTRY OF HOME AFFAIRS (FAX.NO. 23093750)
CONTROL ROOM NDMA (FAX.NO. 26701729)
CABINET SECRETARIAT (FAX.NO.23012284, 23018638)
PS TO HON’BLE MINISTER FOR S & T AND EARTH SCIENCES (FAX NO.23316745)
SECRETARY, MOES, (FAX NO. 24629777)
H.Q. (INTEGRATED DEFENCE STAFF AND CDS) (FAX NO. 23005137/23005147)
DIRECTOR GENERAL, DOORDARSHAN (23421101)
DIRECTOR GENERAL, AIR (23421105, 23421219)
PIB MOES (FAX NO. 23389042)
UNI (FAX NO. 23355841)
D.G. NATIONAL DISASTER RESPONSE FORCE (NDRF) (FAX NO. 24363261)
DIRECTOR, PUNCTUALITY, INDIAN RAILWAYS (FAX NO. 23388503)
CHIEF SECRETARY, TAMILNADU (FAX NO. 044-25672304)
CHIEF SECRETARY, KERALA (FAX NO. 0471-2327176)
ADMINISTRATOR, LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS (FAX NO. 04896-262184)
ADMINISTRATOR, UNION TERRITORY OF DAMAN & DIU AND DADRA NAGAR HAVELI (0260-2230775)
CHIEF SECRETARY, KARNATAKA (FAX NO. 080-22258913)
CHIEF SECRETARY, GOA (FAX NO. 0832-2415201)
CHIEF SECRETARY, MAHARASHTRA (FAX NO. 022- 22028594)
CHIEF SECRETARY, GUJARAT (FAX NO. 079-23250305)
Sub: Cyclonic Storm, ‘LUBAN’ weakened into a deep depression over Yemen
The Cyclonic Storm ‘LUBAN’ over coastal Yemen moved further west-northwestwards during
past 06 hours with a speed of 15 kmph, weakened into a deep depression and lay centered at 1430
hrs IST of today, the 14th October 2018 over Yemen near latitude 15.9°N and longitude 51.7°E, about
40 km west-southwest of Al-Ghaidah (Yemen). It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and
weaken further into a depression during next 6 hours.
(i) Wind warning
Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is very likely over coastal areas of
east Yemen & adjoining areas of Oman, Gulf of Aden and westcentral Arabian Sea during next
06 hours and it is very likely to decrease thereafter.
(ii) Sea condition
The sea condition will be rough to very rough over westcentral Arabian Sea along & off south
Oman and Yemen coasts and also over adjoining areas of Gulf of Aden during next 06 hours. It
will improve rapidly thereafter.
(iii) Fishermen Warning
The fishermen are advised not to venture into westcentral Arabian Sea along & off south Oman
and Yemen coasts and also into Gulf of Aden during next 06 hours.
The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST 14th October, 2018.
(Naresh Kumar)
Scientist-E, RSMC, New Delhi
Copy to: CRS, Pune/ RSMC Guwahati/ ACWC Chennai/ Kolkata/ Mumbai/MC Goa/ Thiruvanathapuram/ Bengaluru/ CWC Ahmedabad.

SOURCE (.PDF File): http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

OMAN

Alert No. (6)
Tropical System in Arabian Sea
Category: Tropical Storm (Luban)
Issuing time: 11 pm
Date: 13th October 2018
Issuing No: 10
Due to potential of heavy rainfall accompanied by fresh winds and probability of flash floods over Governorate of Dhofar, The Public Authority for Civil Aviation advices to take fully precautions and to avoid the low lying areas ,wadi`s and riding the sea during this period and to follow its latest weather bulletins.
Latest updates:
Center of tropical storm (Luban): lat. 15.0 N and Long 53.4 E
Distance from Salalah city: 240 km
Wind speed around the center: 45 to 55 Knots (83 – 102 Km/h)
The tropical storm (Luban) continues moving west towards Yemen’s coasts. Dhofar Governorate is likely continuing to be affected by heavy rain, thundershower at times on Sunday, and 14th of October 2018 with easterly to southeasterly fresh wind of 30-45 Knots (56-83 km/h) and gusting to gale wind over mountainous areas. The sea continues to be rough state with maximum wave of 6 to 8 meters.
The chances for indirect impact on the southern parts of al-Wusta Governorate continues with scattered rain and easterly to southeasterly moderate winds of 20 to 25 Knots (37-46 km/h) on Sunday , 14th of October 2018.
The alert will be updated every 12 hours.

download

 

METEOSAT Imagery – Synoptic

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 05A (Luban) Warning #26 Final Warning
Issued at 14/0900Z

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140851ZOCT2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPCIAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
140600Z — NEAR 15.8N 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 52.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 16.2N 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 51.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
2.THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF (WTIO31 PGTW 140900).//
NNNN

Other

DrR Yemen L

(Image: @RoshinRowjee )

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 140900

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 14 OCTOBER 2018.

PART:-I NIL
PART:-II

THE CYCLONIC STORM LUBAN OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING PAST 06 HOURS WITH A SPEED OF 17 KMPH
AND CROSSED YEMEN COAST NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 52.2
DEG E ABOUT 30 KM SOUTH OF AL-GHAIDAH DURING 1100 – 1130 HRS IST OF
TODAY WITH AN ESTIMATED SUSTAINED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 70-80 KMPH
GUSTING TO 90 KMPH. IT LAY CENTERED AT 1130 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE
14TH OCTOBER 2018 OVER COASTAL YEMEN NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 52.1 DEG E, ABOUT 20 KM SOUTH OF AL-GHAIDAH (YEMEN). IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION
DURING NEXT 6 HOURS.

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 72 DEG E TO S OF 4 DEG N
SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 54 DEG E (.)
2)W OF 72 DEG E TO N OF 4 DEG N NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)E OF 72 DEG E NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 DEG E : NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 62 DEG E TO N OF 4 DEG N W/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)E OF 62 DEG E TO S OF 4 DEG N S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)E OF 60 DEG E FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 60 DEG E 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 64 DEG E:
ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 64 DEG E N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE-LY 05/10
KTS TO THE S OF 14 DEG N (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N : W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-W OF 55 DEG E :ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: W OF 55 DEG E :8-6 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 70 DEG E
ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 15 DEG TO E OF 61 DEG E SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG TO E OF 61 DEG E 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)E OF 88 DEG E TO S OF 6 DEG N
ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 89 DEG E E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 69 DEG E S-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/10
KTS TO THE W OF 86 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 14 DEG N SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 14 DEG N 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS –
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 15 DEG N SE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 18 DEG N FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
II)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 18 DEG N 4-3 NM RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

++++

OMAN

OMAN MARINE FORECAST FOR COASTAL WATERS

ISSUED AT 0600 ON 14/10/2018

AND VALID FROM 14/0600 TO 14/1800 UTC

REGIONAL SYNOPSIS: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SULTANATE.

WEATHER: CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS

WITH CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND FRESH WINDS.

WARNING: ROUGH SEA CONDITION EXPECTED DURING TROPICAL

STORM LUBAN ALONG THE ARABIAN SEA COASTS.

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS & VISIBILITY DETAILS FOLLOWS:

MUSANDAM WEST MUSANDAM EAST

WIND: VRB 05-12 KT WIND: SE/S 06-12 KT

SEA: SLT 1.0 M SEA: SLT 1.25 M

SWELL: NE 0.25 M SWELL: S/SE 0.25 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

BAYAH-MUSCAT MUSCAT VICINITY

WIND: NE TO VRB 03-10 KT WIND: SE TO NE 03-12 KT

SEA: SLT 0.5 M SEA: SLT 0.75 M

SWELL: E 0.5 KT SWELL: E 0.5 KT

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

MUSCAT-SUR SUR-MASIRAH

WIND: NE TO VRB 02-08 KT WIND: NE TO SE 08-18 KT

SEA: SLT 0.75 M SEA: MOD TO ROUGH 2.0-3.0 M

SWELL: E 0.5 KT SWELL: S 1.5 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN.

MASIRAH-MADRAKAH MADRAKAH-ALJAZIR

WIND: E/SE 10-20 KT WIND: E/SE 15-25 KT

SEA: MOD TO ROUGH 2.0-3.0 M SEA: ROUGH 3.0 M

SWELL: S 1.5-2.5 M SWELL: SE 3.0 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH CHANCES OF ISOLATED RAIN.WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH CHANCES OF ISOLATED RAIN.

ALJAZIR-SADAH SADAH-DHALKUT

WIND: E/SE 15-35 KT WIND: SE/E 25-40 KT

SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH 6-8 M SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH 6-8 M

SWELL: E 2-4 M SWELL: E/SE 3-5 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED RAIN.WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED RAIN.

OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS:

CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS WITH CHANCE OF

HEAVY RAIN AND FRESH WINDS.

WARNING:

ROUGH SEA CONDITION EXPECTED DURING TROPICAL STORM LUBAN ALONG THE

ARABIAN SEA COASTS.

PREPARED BY FORECASTER: AL-SHEDHANY. FORECASTER TELEPHONE: 24354661

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

United States: Major Hurricane Michael CAT4 10/1900Z 30.4N 85.3W, moving NNE 15mph/ ~13.03kt 922mb (NHC FL) – Updated 10 Oct 2018 1935Z (GMT/UTC)

 

MAJOR HURRICANE MICHAEL

Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

…MICHAEL INTENSIFIES AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE… NHC

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

 

National Hurricane Center

152003_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind1

STORM SURGE WARNING GRAPHIC (Link)

TORNADOES (see below)

000
WTNT34 KNHC 101737
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

…MICHAEL INTENSIFIES AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MEXICO BEACH
FLORIDA…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.0N 85.5W
ABOUT 5 MI…10 KM NW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI…30 KM SE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…155 MPH…250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…919 MB…27.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the
Alabama/Florida border.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been
discontinued south of Chassahowitzka.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
Satellite, aircraft, and radar data indicate that the eye of
Michael is making landfall just northwest of Mexico Beach, Florida.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward
the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday
through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael
will move inland across the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and
across southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia tonight.
Michael will move northeastward across the southeastern United
States through Thursday night, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic
coast away from the United States on Friday.

Recent data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely
dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United
States. Michael is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on
Friday, and strengthening is forecast as the system moves over the
western Atlantic.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). A wind gust of 130 mph (210 mph) was recently
reported at a University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near
Tyndall Air Force Base before the instrument failed. A wind gust to
129 mph (207 km/h) was reported at the Panama City Airport.

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 919 mb (27.41 inches).

A minimum pressure of 920 mb was recently reported by a University
of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near Tyndall Air Force Base.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide…

Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL…9-14 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL…6-9 ft
Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL…6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL…4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay…2-4 ft
Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to
Duck…2-4 ft

Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 6.5 feet of inundation above
ground level.

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will continue
to spread inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this afternoon and
tonight.

With the landfall of Michael’s eye occurring, everyone in the
landfall area is reminded not to venture out into the relative calm
of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly as the eye
passes!

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight
through Friday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday…

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia…4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia…3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast…1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day
or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible across parts of the Florida
Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon.
This risk will spread northward into parts of Georgia and southern
South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
WTNT34 KNHC 100848
TCPAT4

000
WTNT64 KNHC 101854
TCUAT4

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
200 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

…2 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE…
…EYE OF MICHAEL MOVING INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EAST
OF PANAMA CITY…
…LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS CONTINUE…

Radar data indicate that the eye of Michael is moving inland over
portions of Bay and Calhoun counties in the Florida Panhandle.
Everyone in these areas is reminded not to venture out into the
relative calm of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very
quickly as the eye passes!

Recently reported wind gusts include:

Tyndall Air Force Base: 119 mph (191 km/h)
Florida State University Panama City Campus: 116 mph (187 km/h)
University of Florida/Weatherflow Mexico Beach: 104 mph (167 km/h)
Panama City Treatment Plant: 94 mph (151 km/h)
Panama City Beach National Ocean Service: 78 mph (126 km/h)

Dangerous storm surge continues along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 7.7 feet of inundation above
ground level.
SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT…1900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…30.4N 85.3W
ABOUT 30 MI…45 KM ENE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM W OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…150 MPH…240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…922 MB…27.22 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan

SPC

TORNADOES

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1559
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Areas affected…Portions of central and southern GA…north
FL…and southern SC

Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely

Valid 101729Z – 102030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…95 percent

SUMMARY…A tornado watch will be issued by mid afternoon across
portions of central and southeast Georgia, and perhaps including
parts of north Florida and southern South Carolina. A tornado
threat will spread to the northeast as Hurricane Michael tracks
toward southwest Georgia by early evening, after making landfall
early this afternoon.

DISCUSSION…Trends in mosaic radar imagery suggest a new outer rain
band may be developing across southeast into south-central GA (from
approximately 25 WSW KSSI to 25 WSW KMCN). The combination of
high-moisture-content air (surface dew points in the middle 70s) and
surface heating, given the presence of filtered sunshine through
high thin cirrus on the northeast periphery of Michael, is resulting
in moderate instability. Meanwhile, trends in low-level shear per
VAD profile at Valdosta, GA adjusted for storm motions of embedded
cells in the rain bands indicated steady strengthening, with 0-1 km
SRH approaching 300 m2/s2 and 0-1 km shear around 40 kt. This
strengthening trend is expected to persist through the afternoon and
evening and expand northward and east some across central and
eastern GA into adjacent southern SC, and perhaps north FL, as
Michael tracks toward southwest GA. This high low-level shear
environment favors an increasing tornado threat and the need for a
tornado watch to the north and northeast of WW 406.

..Peters/Guyer.. 10/10/2018

…Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…CHS…CAE…JAX…FFC…TAE…BMX…

LAT…LON 31888448 31508509 33078472 33558396 33538277 33418140
33398098 32528062 31678085 30768128 30208157 29938224
29858269 30928290 31848305 31888448

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 10 Oct, 2018 17:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane MICHAEL is currently located near 29.9 N 85.7 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 130 kts (150 mph). MICHAEL is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. MICHAEL is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tallahassee (30.4 N, 84.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 7 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for TS is 70% in about 67 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 31 hours
    Columbia (34.0 N, 81.0 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 31 hours
    Myrtle Beach (33.7 N, 79.1 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 31 hours
    Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 31 hours
    Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 43 hours
    Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 43 hours
    Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 43 hours
    Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 19 hours
    Raleigh (35.8 N, 78.6 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 31 hours
    Capeville (37.2 N, 75.9 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 43 hours
    Montgomery (32.4 N, 86.3 W)
        probability for TS is 65% within 7 hours
    Charlotte (35.2 N, 80.8 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 31 hours
    Salisbury (38.3 N, 75.6 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 43 hours
    Atlantic City (39.0 N, 74.8 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 43 hours
    Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 67 hours
    Atlanta (33.8 N, 84.4 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 19 hours
    Richmond (37.5 N, 77.5 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 43 hours
    St John’s (47.5 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 67 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    St. Pierre and Miquelon
        probability for TS is 50% in about 67 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 19 hours
    Fredericksburg (38.2 N, 77.5 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 43 hours
    Montauk (41.0 N, 72.2 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 43 hours
    Belmar (40.1 N, 74.1 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 43 hours
    Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 67 hours
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 67 hours
    Philadelphia (39.9 N, 75.2 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 43 hours
    Baltimore (39.5 N, 76.0 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 43 hours
    Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 67 hours
    Roanoke (37.0 N, 80.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 31 hours
    Washington D.C. (38.9 N, 77.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 43 hours
    Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 43 hours
    New York (40.7 N, 73.9 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 43 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

OTHER

Contact Numbers

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
FZNT24 KNHC 101452
OFFNT4

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

GMZ001-110300-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS…Major Hurricane Michael near 29.4N 86.0W 928 mb at
11 AM EDT moving NNE at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt
with gusts to 150 kt. Michael is expected to make landfall as a
Category 4 hurricane along the central panhandle of Florida this
afternoon, then accelerate off to the NE tonight. Conditions
will gradually improve in the NE Gulf Thu through Fri as Michael
moves quickly towards the Cape Hatteras and Tidewater areas. A
cold front will push into the NW Gulf behind the exiting Michael
tonight and Thu and reach from the Florida Panhandle to west-
central Gulf by early Sat.

$$

GMZ011-110300-
NW Gulf including Stetson Bank-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.TODAY…N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in E swell.
.TONIGHT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in E swell.
.THU…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.SUN…SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ013-110300-
N Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine Sanctuary-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TODAY…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. W of 90W, NW winds 10 to
15 kt. Elsewhere, W to NW winds 45 to 50 kt, diminishing to
35 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 to 23 ft in NE to E swell,
subsiding to 11 to 17 ft in NE to E swell towards evening.
Scattered squalls and thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt W of 90W, and W to NW 20 to
25 kt elsewhere. Seas 9 to 13 ft in NE to E swell, subsiding to
6 to 8 ft in NE swell late.
.THU…N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SUN…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ015-110300-
NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87W-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. S of 27N, S to SW winds
25 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Elsewhere, SW winds 100 to 120 kt,
diminishing to 45 to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 24 to 36 ft,
subsiding to 18 to 27 ft in the afternoon. Frequent squalls and
thunderstorms. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SW to W winds
25 to 30 kt. S of 27N, seas 7 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, seas 10 to
16 ft, subsiding to 7 to 11 ft late. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms.
.THU…W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT…NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…NW to N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SUN…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ017-110300-
W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94W-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.TODAY…SE to S winds less than 5 kt, shifting to NE towards
evening. Seas 6 to 9 ft in NE to E swell.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NE to E
swell.
.THU…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered
showers.
.THU NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.SUN…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ019-110300-
Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.TODAY…W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NE swell.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NE swell.
.THU…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ021-110300-
E Gulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.TODAY…S to SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in W swell.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…S to SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NW to N
swell.
.THU…SW to W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in NW to N swell.
.THU NIGHT…W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.FRI NIGHT…N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SUN…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ023-110300-
SW Gulf S of 22N W of 94W-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.TODAY…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in NE swell.
.TONIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in NE swell.
Scattered showers.
.THU…S winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E in the afternoon. Seas
4 to 6 ft. Scattered showers.
.THU NIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered
showers.
.FRI…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SUN…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ025-110300-
E Bay of Campeche including Campeche Bank-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018
.TODAY…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in N to NE swell.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in N to NE
swell.
.THU…E winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to N to NE late in the
afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft in N to NE swell. Scattered showers.
.THU NIGHT…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.FRI NIGHT…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

Forecaster Stripling

000
FZNT02 KNHC 101602
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC WED OCT 10.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU OCT 11.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 12.

.WARNINGS.

…GULF OF MEXICO HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE MICHAEL NEAR 29.4N 86.0W 928 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 10
MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT
GUSTS 150 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM NE
QUADRANT…140 NM SE QUADRANT…80 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 120 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE…
240 NM SE QUADRANT AND 210 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 44 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 24N E OF 89W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 24N WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT
IN N TO NE SWELL. FREQUENT SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N E
OF 88W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL INLAND NEAR 33.6N
82.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT…140 NM SE QUADRANT…60
NM SW QUADRANT…AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. N OF 28N E OF 86W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL MICHAEL OVER ATLC
WATERS NEAR 38.7N 71.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65
KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT…240
NM SE QUADRANT…180 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT.
OVER GULF WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL MICHAEL NEAR 45.5N
52.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL MICHAEL NEAR 49.0N
29.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL MICHAEL NEAR
50.0N 13.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.

…ATLC HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE LESLIE NEAR 27.8N 42.3W 980 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 10
MOVING SSE OR 150 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT
GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 130 NM NE
QUADRANT…90 NM SE QUADRANT…120 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 240 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT…
270 NM SE QUADRANT…240 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 540 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 360 NM
NW AND 270 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18
FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 17N E OF 63W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LESLIE NEAR 28.4N 39.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 130 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 360 SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 36
FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH NADINE…
REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 16N E OF 59W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO
11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LESLIE NEAR 30.7N 31.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 140 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 1200 NM N
AND 360 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 36 FT. EXCEPT AS NOTED
WITH NADINE…ELSEWHERE N OF 12N E OF 52W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LESLIE NEAR 31.5N 23.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LESLIE NEAR 29.5N 22.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LESLIE NEAR 27.0N 26.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.

…ATLC TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM NADINE NEAR 12.6N 31.6W 997 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT
10 MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE
QUADRANT…60 NM SE QUADRANT…30 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 50 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30
NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 18 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NADINE NEAR 14.6N 32.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…70 NM NE QUADRANT AND
30 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM NE AND 30
NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM FROM 11N TO
20N E OF 37W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NADINE NEAR 16.5N 35.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE…60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 45 NM N QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM NE
AND 60 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N TO 20N E OF 42W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION NADINE NEAR 17.5N 39.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC N OF 26N W OF 79W S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT ALONG
31N. ELSEWHERE N OF 25N OUTSIDE OF BAHAMAS BETWEEN 71W AND
80W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH MICHAEL…N OF 29N W OF
75W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH MICHAEL…N OF 30N BETWEEN
73W AND 76W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India/ Bay Of Bengal: VSCS TITLI 10/0900Z near 17.2°N 85.5°E, moving N ~9.71kt 990hpa (RSMC New Delhi, India) – Published 10 Oct 2018 1155Z (GMT/UTC)

VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM TITLI

TITLI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING NEXT 12 HOURS

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 24 FEET – JTWC

INDIA

RSMC NEW DELHI

ftrack

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO. 20
FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) NATIONAL CENTRE
FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 20 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN
SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 1030 UTC OF 10.10.2018 BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 10.10.2018.
(A) VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, ‘LUBAN’ OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA:
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 07 KMPH DURING PAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT
0900 UTC OF 10TH OCTOBER 2018 OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, NEAR LATITUDE 14.4°N AND
LONGITUDE 58.7°E, ABOUT 570 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (41316), 550 KM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF SOCOTRA ISLANDS (41494) AND 730 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AL-GHAIDAH (41398). IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS YEMEN & SOUTH
OMAN COASTS DURING NEXT 4 DAYS.
AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 10TH OCTOBER 2018, THE INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM IS T4.5. BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER AS BETWEEN LATITUDE 11.0°N & 18.5°N AND BETWEEN LONGITUDE
55.5°E & 61.0°E. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93°C. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS ABOUT 984 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 75 KNOTS.
STATE OF SEA IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN BELOW:
DATE/TIME(UTC) POSITION
(LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
DISTURBANCE
10.10.18/0900 14.4/58.7 135-145 GUSTING TO 160 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
10.10.18/1200 14.5/58.6 135-145 GUSTING TO 160 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
10.10.18/1800 14.6/58.3 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/0000 14.7/58.1 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/0600 14.8/57.8 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/1800 14.9/57.1 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
12.10.18/0600 15.0/56.3 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
12.10.18/1800 15.1/55.4 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
13.10.18/0600 15.2/54.4 135-145 GUSTING TO 160 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
13.10.18/1800 15.2/52.9 120-130 GUSTING TO 145 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
14.10.18/0600 15.2/51.1 110-120 GUSTING TO 130 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
14.10.18/1800 15.0/48.3 90-100 GUSTING TO 110 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
(B) VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘TITLI’ OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL:
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘TITLI’ OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 18 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY
CANTERED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 10TH OCTOBER 2018 OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2°N AND LONGITUDE 85.5°E, ABOUT 230 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GOPALPUR
(43049) AND 190 KM SOUTHEAST OF KALINGAPATNAM (43105). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND
CROSS ODISHA & ADJOINING NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS BETWEEN GOPALPUR &
KALINGAPATNAM AROUND MORNING OF 11TH OCTOBER. THEREAFTER, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO RECURVE
NORTHEASTWARDS, MOVE TOWARDS GANGETIC WEST BENGAL ACROSS ODISHA AND
WEAKEN GRADUALLY.
AS PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 10TH OCTOBER, INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM IS T 4.5. BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER AREA BETWEEN LATITUDE 13.5°N & 21.0°N AND LONGITUDE 81.5°E & 90.0°E.
MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93°C. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT
990 HPA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY HIGH
AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
DATE/TIME(UTC) POSITION
(LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
DISTURBANCE
10.10.18/0900 17.2/85.5 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
10.10.18/1200 17.4/85.3 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
10.10.18/1800 18.0/85.1 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/0000 18.6/84.9 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/0600 19.3/84.8 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/1800 20.5/85.5 70-80 GUSTING TO 90 CYCLONIC STORM
12.10.18/0600 21.8/87.0 50-60 GUSTING TO 70 DEEP DEPRESSION
12.10.18/1800 23.1/88.7 40-50 GUSTING TO 60 DEPRESSION
REMARKS:
THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 1 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE
THAN 1. IT WILL MOVE TO PHASE 2 FROM 12TH OCTOBER AND WILL REMAIN IN SAME PHASE TILL 15TH .
AMPLITUDE WILL REMAIN MORE THAN 1 TILL 15TH OCTOBER. IT WILL BECOME LESS THAN 1 FROM 15TH
ONWARDS. HENCE, MJO PHASE WILL BE FAVOURABLE FOR ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION &
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTH & ADJOINING CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (AS) DURING THE PERIOD 10TH-
15TH, IT WILL ALSO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) DURING 12TH-15TH.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER AS, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
IS 29-310C OVER SOUTHEAST AND EASTCENTRAL AS. IT IS AROUND 26-290C OVER WESTCENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST AS. THE SST IS DECREASING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS OMAN COAST. HOWEVER IT IS
INCREASING TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS ABOUT 60-80 KJ/CM2
OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL AS. IT IS LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM2 TO THE NORTH OF
17.00 N AND WEST OF 60.00E. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS AROUND 300 X10-5SEC-1 AROUND
THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE VORTICITY ZONE IS EXTENDING UPTO 200 HPA LEVEL. THE LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOW ABOUT 20 X10-5SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS OF THE ORDER 20 X10-5SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS LOW (05-10 KT) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND ALSO ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
THE ANIMATION OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERIES INDICATE THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
ADVECTION TO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM AND THERE IS COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION NEAR
OMAN AND YEMEN COASTS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 170 N. HENCE,AS THE
SYSTEM MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS IT WILL EXPERIENCE LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR,
WARMER SST & LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM LAND AREAS.
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS 30-310C OVER WESTCENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BOB. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS ABOUT 60-80 KJ/CM2 OVER MAJOR PARTS OF SOUTH &
CENTRAL BOB AND BECOMING LESS THAN 40 KJ/CM2 OVER NORTH BOB. LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
VORTICITY HAS NOW INCREASED AND IS ABOUT 250 X10-5 SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE
VORTICITY ZONE IS EXTENDING UPTO 200 HPA LEVEL. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS
INCREASED AND IS ABOUT 30 X10-5 SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 40 X 10-5 SEC-1 TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS LOW (05-10 KT) TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE . THE ANIMATION OF TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERIES INDICATE THE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION TO THE CORE OF
THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 180 N. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ARE SOUTHEASTERLY INDICATING NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM. MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, NCMRWF UNIFIED MODELS (NCUM),
NCMRWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM (NEPS), IMD GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM (GFS), NCEP GFS,
SUGGEST GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AND NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM DURING
NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARDS SOUTH ODISHA COAST AND ADJOINING NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST
AND NORTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE AFTER LANDFALL.
(SUNITHA DEVI)
SCIENTIST-E, RSMC, NEW DELHI
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM (LUBAN)
14.4N/58.7 at 0900 UTC
Very SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM (TITLI)
17.2N/85.5E at 0900 UTC
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 10 Oct, 2018 6:00 GMT

Severe Cyclonic Storm TITLI is currently located near 17.0 N 85.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). TITLI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. TITLI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Puri (19.9 N, 85.9 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 06B (Titli) Warning #05
Issued at 10/0900Z

io0618

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
100600Z — NEAR 17.0N 85.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 85.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 18.2N 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 19.4N 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 20.1N 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 21.0N 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 85.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (TITLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DEEPENED AND DEVELOPED
A 18-NM RAGGED EYE AS IT MAINTAINED EXPANSIVE RAIN BANDS THAT WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE EIR ANIMATION THAT IS ADJUSTED FOR
PARALLAX AND LINED UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED CENTER IN THE 100428Z
DIRECT ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM OBJECTIVE
AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.1 TO T5.0 AND REFLECTS
THE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SHORTLY AFTER TAU 18 WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF INDIA NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND AS THE STR WEAKENS AND RECEDES.
THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND FUEL A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION UP TO 85 KNOTS NEAR LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
MEMBERS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 101130

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1100 UTC 10 OCTOBER 2018.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, TITLI IS BEING MONITORED BY THE
COASTAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AT VISAKHAPATNAM, GOPALPUR AND
PARADIP. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM \U2018TITLI\U2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 18 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND
LAY CANTERED AT 1430 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE 10TH OCTOBER 2018 OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 85.5
DEG E, ABOUT 230 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GOPALPUR (ODISHA) AND 190 KM
SOUTHEAST OF KALINGAPATNAM (ANDHRA PRADESH). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS ODISHA AND ADJOINING NORTH ANDHRA
PRADESH COASTS BETWEEN GOPALPUR AND KALINGAPATNAM AROUND MORNING OF
11TH OCTOBER. THEREAFTER, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO RE-CURVE
NORTHEASTWARDS, MOVE TOWARDS GANGETIC WEST BENGAL ACROSS ODISHA AND
WEAKEN GRADUALLY (.)

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 07 KMPH DURING PAST SIX HOURS AND LAY
CENTERED AT 1430 HRS IST 10TH OCTOBER 2018 OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA, NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 58.7 DEG E, ABOUT 570 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN), 550 KM EASTNORTHEAST OF SOCOTRA
ISLANDS (YEMEN) AND 730 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AL-GHAIDAH (YEMEN). IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
TOWARDS YEMEN AND SOUTH OMAN COASTS DURING NEXT 4 DAYS (.)

PART:-II NIL (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 65 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N :
SW/W-LY 35/45 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/20 KTS TO E OF 66 DEG E (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 65 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)N OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 65 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N :
SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS BEC SW-LY 20/25 KTS TO THE E OF 59 DEG E (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E TO THE N OF 5 DEG N: W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
3)S OF 5 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 70 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)W OF 60 DEG E TO N OF 6 DEG N 3.5-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 21 DEG N TO W OF 67 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 70/80 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N OF E OF 66 DEG E: W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
3)N OF 21 DEG N: W/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 20 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)W OF 65 DEG E TO S OF 19 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-6.0 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 75/85 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N OF E OF 66 DEG E: W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N: W/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)W OF 62 DEG E TO S OF 18 DEG N :OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 5.0-9.0 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 91 DEG E: S/SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: S/SE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-4.0 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 91 DEG E: S/SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: S/SE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 70/80 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)N OF 13 DEG N: OVER14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 2.5-6.0 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS –
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 25/35 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
II)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: -6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.
  

Japan/ South Korea/ China/ North Korea: Tropical Storm KONG-REY 30W 041500Z position nr 26.1N 126.5E, moving NNW 12kt (JTWC) – Updated 04 Oct 2018 1525Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm KONG-REY 30W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 22 FEET – JTWC

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 30W (Kong-rey) Warning #27
Issued at 04/1500Z

wp30181

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 027
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 30W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
041200Z — NEAR 25.5N 126.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 340 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 126.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 28.0N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 31.0N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 20 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 34.6N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 38.2N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 34 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 43.6N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 126.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 88 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND
051500Z.//
NNNN

Click here for source

 

TY 1825 (Kong-rey)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 4 October 2018

<Analysis at 14 UTC, 4 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°55′ (25.9°)
E126°30′ (126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area W 650 km (350 NM)
E 560 km (300 NM)
<Estimate for 15 UTC, 4 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N26°05′ (26.1°)
E126°25′ (126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area W 650 km (350 NM)
E 560 km (300 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 4 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°35′ (26.6°)
E126°05′ (126.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 50 km (25 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 5 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°00′ (28.0°)
E125°35′ (125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 5 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N29°30′ (29.5°)
E125°35′ (125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 5 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°55′ (30.9°)
E126°00′ (126.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

Himawari-8

(30 minute updates)

 

No.25 KONG-REY

Issued at(KST) : 2018.10.04. 22:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2018.10.04. 12:00 Analysis 25.4 126.7 970 35 126 420
(WSW 350)
Strong Medium NNW 21
2018.10.05. 00:00 Forecast 27.6 125.3 970 35 126 410
(W 335)
Strong Medium NNW 25 48
2018.10.05. 12:00 Forecast 30.3 125.0 975 32 115 400
(WNW 320)
Normal Medium N 24 110
2018.10.06. 00:00 Forecast 33.3 127.0 980 29 104 365
(WNW 285)
Normal Medium NE 34 140
2018.10.06. 12:00 Forecast 36.8 131.9 985 27 97 330
(NW 250)
Normal Medium ENE 52 170
2018.10.07. 00:00 Forecast 40.4 138.6 990 24 86 320
(WNW 240)
Weak Medium ENE 57 210
2018.10.07. 12:00 Forecast 43.3 149.7 990 24 86 ENE 81

 

※ It is provided only for the typhoon information in progress. The past information could be found in National Typhoon Center homepage.

 

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 4 Oct, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KONG-REY is currently located near 25.5 N 126.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). KONG-REY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Japan
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    China
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 48 hours
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

 

Other

DocR K2
(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/seawarn/

WTJP22 RJTD 041200
WARNING 041200.
WARNING VALID 051200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1825 KONG-REY (1825) 965 HPA
AT 25.5N 126.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 28.0N 125.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 30.9N 126.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 38.3N 132.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 43.4N 149.8E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.