Puerto Rico/ Virgin Islands/ Caribbean: Tropical Storm KAREN 24/2100Z 18.0N 65.8W, moving N ~07kt. Wind 45mph. 1005mb (NHC FL) – Updated 24 Sep 2019 2130Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm KAREN

…CENTER OF KAREN NOW NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO…

….the center of Karen will pass near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next few hours and
then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday…..

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

205143_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

 
000
WTNT32 KNHC 242048
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

…CENTER OF KAREN NOW NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO…
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC...INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.0N 65.8W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 70 MI…110 KM WNW OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 65.8 West. Karen is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast with some increase in forward speed is forecast
tonight, with this motion continuing through Wednesday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next few hours and
then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center. During the past few hours,
wind gusts of tropical-storm force have been reported in portions
of the Virgin Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands…3 to 6 inches, isolated 10
inches.

Leeward Islands…1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are
currently spreading across the warning area. Winds could be higher
on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated
terrain.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

PUERTO RICO

Weather Forecast Office
NWS San Juan, PR

 

 

Tropical Storm Warning
Flash Flood Watch
Hurricane Local Statement
Rip Current Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 24 Sep, 2019 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KAREN is currently located near 16.8 N 65.8 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). KAREN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Puerto Rico
        probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours
    the Virgin Islands
        probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)
        probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours
    St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)
        probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the British Virgin Islands
        probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)
        probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

DocR Karen

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT22 KNHC 242048
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO…INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 65.8W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 0NE 70SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 65.8W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 65.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.6N 65.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.9N 64.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 50NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.2N 64.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT… 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 25.9N 63.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT… 70NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.2N 61.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT… 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 26.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 65.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2…AT 25/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

FZNT02 KNHC 242056
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC TUE SEP 24.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC WED SEP 25.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC THU SEP 26.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM LORENZO NEAR 12.8N 31.0W 997 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP
24 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS…130 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 180 NM NE QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 13N TO 19N E
OF 39W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 13.2N 33.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 13.8N 35.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 190 NM NE QUADRANT…120 NM SE QUADRANT…70 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
300 NM N AND 270 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 35 FT. ELSEWHERE
OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 09N TO 20N E OF 40W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST WATERS S OF 22N E OF 31W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 15.6N 40.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 190 NM NE QUADRANT…120 NM SE QUADRANT…80 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
360 NM N AND 270 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 40 FT. ELSEWHERE
OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 390 NM N AND 300 NM S SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST WATERS
S OF 25N E OF 49W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 18.8N 42.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 21.9N 45.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 24.9N 45.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM JERRY NEAR 31.1N 69.0W 992 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 24
MOVING N OR 010 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS
55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…160 NM NE QUADRANT AND 150 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT…180 NM SE
QUADRANT…120 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 210 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 61W
AND 72W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER FORECAST
WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO
9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JERRY NEAR 32.9N 65.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 130 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER TO LIFT N OF AREA. OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 30N BETWEEN
60W AND 67W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY NEAR 34.4N 60.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW JERRY NEAR 34.5N
56.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW JERRY NEAR 33.0N
54.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

…ATLC AND CARIBBEAN TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 18.0N 65.8W 1005 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP
24 MOVING N OR 00 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM N
SEMICIRCLE…70 NM SE QUADRANT AND 20 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 60 NM SE QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM E AND 30 NM W
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. NUMEROUS SQUALLS
AND TSTMS N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 21.9N 64.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM NE QUADRANT…70 NM SE QUADRANT…30 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 0 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90
NM NE QUADRANT…60 NM SE QUADRANT AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH
SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM E AND 45 NM W SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 25.9N 63.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 70 NM E SEMICIRCLE…40 NM SW QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT
90 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 19 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM E
AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 27.2N 61.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 27.0N 62.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 26.5N 65.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

 

BERMUDA: Tropical Storm JERRY 23/1800Z 28.3N 68.2W, moving NNW ~5.9kt. Wind 65mph. 991mb (NHC FL) – Updated 23 Sep 2019 1853Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm JERRY

……JERRY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED……

….the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

144342_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

 

 

701
WTNT35 KNHC 231751
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
200 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

…JERRY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…28.3N 68.2W
ABOUT 345 MI…550 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB…29.27 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 68.2 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion should continue today. A turn to the north is
expected tonight followed by a turn to the northeast on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by late
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

BWS – Tropical Update Bulletin

TROPICAL STORM JERRY

IS A THREAT TO BERMUDA

Advisory #25A,
3 pm Mon, Sep 23, 2019 (1800 UTC Mon, Sep 23, 2019)
Refresh browser for latest image
KEY: Blue = 34-50 kts, Yellow = 50-64 kts, and Red = 64 kts and greater
Diagonal shading indicates fringe winds (34kts or greater surrounding the storm’s core)
Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs (3 days) is forecast to be 54 nm to the NW, 6 am Wed, Sep 25, 2019. However, this system may move closer to Bermuda after this time period depending upon its track.
Current Position: 28.3N 68.2W approx. 298 nm SSW of Bermuda
Recent Movement: NNW or 330 degrees at 6 kt
Central Pressure: 991 mb / 29.26 in
Max Winds: 55kt gusts 65kt
BWS Tropical Update Bulletins (TUBs), in line with NHC updates, are normally issued every 6 hours (03, 09, 15, and 21 UTC). When a tropical watch or warning is in effect for Bermuda, intermediate TUBs are issued at 3-hour intervals between the regular TUBs (06, 12, 18, and 00 UTC). Additionally, TUBs may be issued at any time due to significant changes in warnings or in the cyclone.

xxxx


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 23 Sep, 2019 15:00 GMT

 

Tropical Storm JERRY is currently located near 28.1 N 68.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). JERRY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bermuda
        probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

Not recent

 

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT25 KNHC 231440
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 68.0W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT…….110NE 150SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 68.0W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 67.9W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.2N 68.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT…120NE 150SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.4N 68.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…130NE 150SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.8N 67.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…140NE 140SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 33.3N 65.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 35.8N 58.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 120SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 37.0N 53.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 37.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 68.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5…AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Bermuda Marine Forecast

This forecast covers an area out to 25 nautical miles from the coastline
Issued at 12:30 pm – Monday, September 23, 2019
The next scheduled update will be issued at 4:30 pm

Marine Synopsis –

Tropical Storm Jerry, a threat to Bermuda, is expected to bring tropical storm force winds with possible hurricane force gusts to Bermuda from Tuesday evening. Ahead of Jerry, expect easterly winds to increase, clouds to thicken and rain with embedded showers as of this evening and isolated thunderstorms. Seas become rough to very rough and dangerous through Wednesday.

Today –

Winds east-southeasterly 15 to 20 knots…  Developing showers with fair to poor visibility… Seas increasing, inside the reef 1 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 5 to 8 ft…  Sunrise: 7:07 am.

Tonight –

Winds southeasterly 15 to 20 knots…  Widespread rain with embedded showers and risk of thunderstorms; fair to poor visibility… Seas increasing, inside the reef 2 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 6 to 10 ft…  Sunset: 7:14 pm.

Tuesday –

Winds south-southeasterly 20 to 30 knots, veering southerly by afternoon, increasing south-southwesterly 25 to 35 gusts to 45 knots in the evening, increasing 35 to 45 knots gusts 55 knots, possibly 65 knots in elevated and exposed areas overnight…  Showers and rain with fair to poor visibility, isolated thunderstorms with very poor visibility… Seas inside the reef 2 to 5 ft… Outside the reef 10 to 15 ft, increasing during the night inside the reef 3 to 6 ft… Outside the reef 15 to 20 ft…  Sunrise: 7:08 am; Sunset: 7:13 pm.

Wednesday –

Winds westerly 25 to 35 knots gusts to 45 knots, easing northwesterly 15 to 20 knots by afternoon, then 10 to 15 knots by evening, tending northerly overnight…  Scattered showers with fair to poor visibility easing towards evening… Seas inside the reef 2 to 4 ft… Outside the reef 15 to 8 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:09 am; Sunset: 7:12 pm.

Thursday –

Winds northerly 8 to 12 knots, easing north-northeasterly 5 to 10 knots overnight…  Seas inside the reef 1 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 6 to 9 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:09 am; Sunset: 7:10 pm.

Friday –

Winds northeasterly 5 to 10 knots…  Seas inside the reef 1 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 4 to 7 ft…  Sunrise: 7:10 am; Sunset: 7:09 pm.


Tides at St George’s (for Great Sound tides, add 10 minutes):
High: 4:32 pm this afternoon: 1.1m/3.6ft, 4:59 am Tuesday: 1m/3.3ft
Low: 11:02 pm tonight: 0.5m/1.6ft, 11:06 am Tuesday: 0.4m/1.3ft
Sea Surface Temperature: 28.5°C/83.3°F
Meteorologist: Gary Hall, Observer: Dana Masters


===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

Oman/ Arabian Sea: Severe Cyclonic Storm HIKAA 23/1500Z near 20.2N 62.9E, moving W 10kt (JTWC) – Published 23 Sep 2019 1600Z (GMT/UTC)

 Severe Cyclonic Storm/Tropical Cyclone HIKAA 03A (was 96A)

Cyclonic Storm ‘HIKAA’ intensified into a Severe Cyclonic Storm over northeast and adjoining northwest and central Arabian Sea….

…..It is very likely to move nearly westwards and cross Oman coast between latitude 19°N and 20°N during early hours of 25th September 2019 as a Cyclonic Storm….(RSMC New Delhi)

Expected to become a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by  24 Sep, 0:00 UTC (TSR UCL London data)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 17 FEET (JTWC)

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Tropical Cyclone 03A (Hikaa) Warning #04
Issued at 23/1500Z

io0319

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (HIKAA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (HIKAA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 20.2N 63.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 63.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 20.3N 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 20.1N 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 19.7N 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 19.4N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 62.9E.
23SEP19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (HIKAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265
NM EAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A MIDGET SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEVELOPING EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN A 231122Z SSMIS
91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THIS SSMIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A
75NM DIAMETER CONVECTIVE CORE, TYPICAL OF MIDGET SYSTEMS. TC 03A HAS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 30 KNOTS AT
22/12Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T3.5-4.0 (55-65 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS ROBUST
EQUATORWARD AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HINDERED BY EASTERLY
CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT (10-15 KNOTS) AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER A REGION OF WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD, STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
ARABIAN SEA. THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A VISIBLE EYE STRUCTURE,
COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK SUGGESTS A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ONCE OVER LAND NEAR TAU 30, TC HIKAA WILL RAPIDLY
ERODE DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF TERRAIN AND LACK OF
UNDERLYING OCEAN DRIVEN CONVECTION. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE ON THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, LENDING TO OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z,
240900Z AND 241500Z.//

NNNN

 

BULLETIN NO. : 08(ARB/02/2019)

TIME OF ISSUE: 1730HOURS IST

DATED: 23.09.2019

FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (FAX NO. 24643965/24699216/24623220)

Sub: Cyclonic Storm ‘HIKAA’ intensified into a Severe Cyclonic Storm over northeast and adjoining northwest and central Arabian Sea

The Cyclonic Storm ‘HIKAA’ over northeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian sea moved nearly westwards with a speed of 26kmph during past06 hours and intensified into a Severe Cyclonic Storm over northeast and adjoining northwest and central Arabian Sea and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 23rdSeptember,2019near latitude 20.2°N and longitude 64.2°E, about 640km west-southwestof Veraval (Gujarat), 600km southwestofKarachi(Pakistan) and 550km east-southeast of Masirah (Oman).

It is likely to intensify further during next 12hours and weaken gradually from 24thmorning. It is very likely to move nearly westwards and cross Oman coast between latitude 19°N and 20°N during early hours of 25th September 2019 as a Cyclonic Storm.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table: Date/Time(IST)Position(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)Category of cyclonic disturbance23.09.19/143020.2/64.290-100gusting to 110Severe Cyclonic Storm23.09.19/173020.2/63.7100-110gusting to 120Severe Cyclonic Storm23.09.19/233020.1/62.6110-120 gusting to 130Severe Cyclonic Storm24.09.19/053020.0/61.5100-110gusting to 120Severe Cyclonic Storm24.09.19/113019.9/60.490-100 gusting to 110Severe Cyclonic Storm24.09.19/233019.7/58.270-80 gusting to 90Cyclonic Storm25.09.19/113019.5/56.045-55 gusting to 65

Depression Warnings

:(i) Wind warningGalewind,speed reaching 90-100kmph gusting to 110kmphvery likely to prevail over northeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea, whichis likely to decrease thereafter India Meteorological DepartmentEarth System Science Organisation(Ministry of Earth Sciences)

Spatial rainfall distribution: Isolated: <25%, A few: 26-50%, Many: 51-75%, Most: 76-100%Rainfall amount (mm): Heavy rain: 64.5 –115.5, Very heavy rain: 115.6–204.4, Extremely heavy rain: 204.5 or more.becoming55-65kmph gusting to 75kmph by 24thmorning

.It is likely to be galewindspeed reaching 60-70kmph gusting to 80kmph,over northwest and adjoining westcentral Arabian Seaand is likely to increase gradually becoming110-120kmph gusting to 130kmph from 23rdmidnightfor subsequent 06hours.It will gradually decrease thereafterbecoming 70-80kmph gusting to 90kmph by 24thmidnightalong & off Oman coast.

(ii) Sea conditionThe sea condition is very likely to be very highover northeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea during next 12 hours and high to very rough during subsequent 12 hours.

Sea conditions will be very rough to high over northwest and adjoining westcentral Arabian Sea during next 06hours and very high during subsequent 12hours.It will become high to very rough and improve thereafter.

(iii)Fishermen Warning

The fishermen are advised not to venture into northeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea till 24thmorningand into northwest & adjoining westcentral Arabian Sea till 25thmorning.The next bulletinwill be issued at 2030hrs IST of 23rdSeptember,2019.

(Neetha K Gopal)Scientist-E, RSMC, New Delhi

OMAN

Alert(1) Weather over Arabian Sea Classification: Tropical Storm Issuing time: 3:00 PMLST Date: 23rdSeptember2019 Issue number: 3 Latest Weather charts and the analysis of the National Multi Hazards Early Warning Center indicate that the Tropical Storm ‘Hikaa’is located over Central Arabian Sea at longitude 64.1oE and latitude 20.3oNwithestimatedsurface wind speed around the centerbetween34and40knots (60to 75Km/hr). The storm is about 540km away from Masirah Island.The closest convective cloudsbandassociate with the system is about 320 km from Masirah Island. The tropical storm continues to movetowards the coasts of Al-Sharqiya and Al-Wusta Governorates. Numerical Weather predictions indicatepossible-gradual weakening of the stormwhile approaching the coastal areas of the Sultanate. The direct effect of the storm isexpected to reach Governorates of SouthernAl Sharqiya and Al Wusta by tomorrow evening (Tuesday 24thSeptember 2019) associated with isolated heavy rain with amount ranges between 30 and 60 millimeters andfresh winds ranges between 25 and 35 knots. Rough sea state is expected over the coastal areas of South Al-Sharqiya and Al-Wusta with maximum wave height between 3 and6meters with chances of sea water inundation over low level coastal areas. The sea state will be moderate over the rest of the coastal areas with maximum wave height between 1.5 and2.5 meters.The Public Authority for Civil Aviation advices the public to take precaution and stay away from low lying areas, avoiding crossing wadis. It also advices the fishermen and sea goers to avoid venture into the sea and follow latest and updated bulletin from the National Multi Hazard Early Warning Centre.Note: The advisory will beupdated every 24 hours.

Source: http://www.met.gov.om/opencms/export/sites/default/dgman/en/home/

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 23 Sep, 2019 6:00 GMT

 

Tropical Storm HIKAA is currently located near 20.2 N 64.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). HIKAA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Oman
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mursays (20.4 N, 58.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

DocR Hikka

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 230900

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 23 SEPTEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING (.)

THE CYCLONIC STORM HIKAA OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA MOVED NEARLY WESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 11 KTS DURING
PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 23 RD
SEPTEMBER, 2019 OVER THE SAME REGION NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 65.0 DEG E, ABOUT 560 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (42909),
GUJARAT (INDIA),560 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI (41780), PAKISTAN
AND 630 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (41288), OMAN. IT IS LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY FROM 24
TH MORNING. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY WESTWARDS AND CROSS
OMAN COAST BETWEEN LATITUDE 19 DEG N AND 20 DEG N AROUND 2100 UTC OF
24 TH SEPTEMBER 2019 AS A DEEP DEPRESSION (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KTS GUSTING TO
50 KTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS HIGHAROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/09/23 AT 18 UTC 20.1 N / 62.9 E MAX WIND 55 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/09/24 AT 06 UTC 19.9 N / 60.5 E MAX WIND 45 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 62 DEG E:SW/W-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE
E OF 76 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 62 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTEREDR RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 62 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 62 DEG E:SW-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E TO W OF 70 DEG E: ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA:SW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 4
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 66 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTEREDRA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 66 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 16 DEG N: CYCLONIC 45/55 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:SW-LY 15/25 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E OF 64
DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 17 DEG N AND E OF 60 DEG E:WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 17 DEG N AND E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 16 DEG N: 6.0-10.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 17 DEG N: CYCLONIC 20/30 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 16 DEG N TO W OF 64 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO W OF 64 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N: 3.5-5.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 88 DEG E SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
2)REST AREA: SE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: W OF 90 DEG E WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: W OF 90 DEG E 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 88 DEG E SE-LY 05/10 KTS
BEC S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC E-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF 5
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)W OF 92 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)W OF 92 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: S/SE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SE-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE W OF 90 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

OMAN MARINE FORECAST FOR COASTAL WATERS

ISSUED AT 1800 ON 23/09/2019

AND VALID FROM 23/1800 TO 24/0600 UTC

REGIONAL SYNOPSIS: THERMAL LOW AREA OVER ARABIAN PENINSULA.

WEATHER: CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE COASTAL

ARAS OF ARABIAN SEA WITH CHANCE OF ISOLATED RAIN

AND MAINLY CLEAR ALONG THE REST OF THE COASTAL

AREAS.

WARNING: NIL.

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS & VISIBILITY DETAILS FOLLOWS:

MUSANDAM WEST MUSANDAM EAST

WIND: VRB 02-06 KT WIND: SE 05-12 KT

SEA: SLT 0.75 M SEA: SLT 0.75 M

SWELL: W/SW 0.3 M SWELL: SE 0.3 M

VISIBILITY: 3 – 4 NM VISIBILITY: 3 – 4 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

BAYAH-MUSCAT MUSCAT VICINITY

WIND: VRB 03-07 KT WIND: VRB 02-06 KT

SEA: SLT 1.0 M SEA: SLT 0.75 M

SWELL: E 0.5 M SWELL: SE 0.5 M

VISIBILITY: 3 – 4 NM VISIBILITY: 3 – 4 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

MUSCAT-SUR SUR-MASIRAH

WIND: VRB 03-08 KT WIND: SW 07-16 KT

SEA: SLT 1.0 M SEA: SLT/MOD 1.5 M

SWELL: SE 1.0 KT SWELL: SE 1.0 M

VISIBILITY: 2 – 3 NM VISIBILITY: 2 – 3 NM

WEATHER: CHANCE OF CLOUDS ADVECTION.WEATHER: CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CHANCE OF RAIN.

MASIRAH-MADRAKAH MADRAKAH-ALJAZIR

WIND: SW 07-16 KT WIND: SW 10-15 KT

SEA: SLT/MOD 1.5 M SEA: SLT/MOD 1.5 M

SWELL: SW 1.0 M SWELL: SW 1.0 M

VISIBILITY: 2 – 3 NM VISIBILITY: 2 – 3 NM

WEATHER: CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CHANCE OF RAIN.WEATHER: CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CHANCE OF RAIN.

ALJAZIR-SADAH SADAH-DHALKUT

WIND: SW 10-20 KT WIND: SW 05-12 KT

SEA: SLT/MOD 1.5 M SEA: SLT/MOD 1.5 M

SWELL: SW 1.5 M SWELL: SW 1.5 M

VISIBILITY: 2 – 3 NM VISIBILITY: 2 – 3 NM

WEATHER: CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.WEATHER: CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS:

CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF ARABIAN SEA

WITH CHANCE OF RAIN OCCASIONALLY THUNDERSHOWERS OVER ALSHARQIYA AND

AL-WUSTA COASTS.

WARNING:

NIL.

PREPARED BY FORECASTER: AL-MAQBALI – FORECASTER TELEPHONE: 24354661

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

Japan/ South Korea: Severe Tropical Storm Tapah 18W 22/1100UTC 20:00JST 33.5°N 129.0°E, moving NNE 17kt. Wind 60kt/69mph, gust 85kt/97.8mph 975hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 22 Sep 2019 1300Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm TAPAH (1917 18W)

 

 

JMA logo

1917-00 TAPAH JMA

 

 

 

STS 1917 (Tapah)
Issued at 11:50 UTC, 22 September 2019

<Analysis at 11 UTC, 22 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N33°30′ (33.5°)
E129°00′ (129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 200 km (110 NM)
NW 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 650 km (350 NM)
NW 560 km (300 NM)
<Estimate for 12 UTC, 22 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N33°40′ (33.7°)
E129°10′ (129.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 200 km (110 NM)
NW 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 650 km (350 NM)
NW 560 km (300 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 22 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N34°30′ (34.5°)
E130°05′ (130.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 40 km/h (22 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 50 km (25 NM)
Storm warning area N 240 km (130 NM)
S 160 km (85 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 22 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N36°30′ (36.5°)
E132°25′ (132.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45 km/h (24 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area N 280 km (150 NM)
S 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 23 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N38°25′ (38.4°)
E134°50′ (134.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 50 km/h (26 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 100 km (55 NM)
Storm warning area N 280 km (150 NM)
S 260 km (140 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 23 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N40°05′ (40.1°)
E137°35′ (137.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 50 km/h (27 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 310 km (170 NM)

Typhoon

Forecast Chart

No.17 TAPAH

Issued at(KST) : 2019.09.22. 19:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2019.09.22. 09:00 Analysis 33.3 128.2 970 35 126 330
(W 280)
Strong Medium NE 39
2019.09.22. 15:00 Forecast 35.3 130.4 975 32 115 310
(WNW 260)
Normal Medium NE 50 24
2019.09.22. 21:00 Forecast 37.4 133.2 975 32 115 290
(WNW 220)
Normal Small NE 57 48
2019.09.23. 03:00 Forecast 39.5 136.4 980 29 104 270
(WNW 200)
Normal Small ENE 61 72
2019.09.23. 09:00 Forecast 41.7 139.9 985 27 97 ENE 63


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 Sep, 2019 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm TAPAH is currently located near 32.7 N 127.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). TAPAH is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP21 RJTD 221200
WARNING 221200.
WARNING VALID 231200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1917 TAPAH (1917) 980 HPA
AT 33.6N 129.4E SEA AROUND TUSHIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 37.5N 133.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 40.9N 139.3E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mexico: Hurricane LORENA CAT1 21/1800UTC/1200MDT 26.1N 110.8W, moving N ~10.2ktkt. Wind 75mph. 986mb (NHC FL) – Updated 21 Sep 2019 1915Z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE LORENA 15E CAT1

……HURRICANE LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA…
…AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENROUTE TO CHECK LORENA………

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San
Evaristo.
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of
Lorena.

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

 

 

 

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 211734
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
1200 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

…HURRICANE LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA…
…AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENROUTE TO CHECK LORENA…

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…26.1N 110.8W
ABOUT 128 MI…205 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM ENE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San
Evaristo.
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of
Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was
located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 110.8 West. Lorena is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general motion
toward the north is expected during the next day or so. On the
forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move across the
Gulf of California today, then approach the northwestern coast of
mainland Mexico tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast before the center reaches
the coast of mainland Mexico early Sunday. An Air Force
reconnaissance plane will check Lorena shortly.

Lorena is a small cyclone and the hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storms conditions are expected to spread northward
across the Gulf or California today. Hurricane conditions are
possible and tropical storm conditions are expected within the
hurricane watch and tropical storm warning areas by tonight.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Baja California Sur…3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts
around 8 inches.

Sonora…3 to 6 inches.

Northwest Sinaloa…2 to 4 inches.

This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

MEXICO

Aviso Meteorológico No. 31-19 Lugar Ciudad de México Fecha21 de sept.de 2019 11:00h

Lorenase localizó sobre el Golfo de California,a 90 km al este-sureste de Loreto, Baja California Sur

Se mantienen las lluvias torrenciales en regiones de Sonora, intensas en áreas de Baja California Sur, Chihuahua y el norte de Sinaloa y puntuales muy fuertes en Durango.A las 10:00 horas, tiempo del centro de México, el huracán Lorena, categoría 1 en la escala de Saffir Simpson, se localizósobre el Golfo de California,a 90kilómetros (km) al este-sureste de Loreto,Baja California Sur,y a 270 kmal sur de Guaymas, Sonora, con vientos máximos sostenidos de 120 km/h, rachas de 150km/h y desplazamiento al norte a 19km/h.Durante las próximas horas persistirán las rachas de viento superiores a 80 km/h con oleaje de 3 a 5 metros (m) y posibilidad de trombas en las costas de Baja California Sur, Sonora y Sinaloa, lluvias torrenciales en regiones de Sonora, intensas en áreas de Baja California Sur, Chihuahua y el norte de Sinaloa así como puntuales muy fuertes en Durango. Se actualizazona de vigilancia por efectos de huracán en Sonora, desde Huatabampito hasta Puerto Libertad, y por efectos de tormenta tropical en Baja California Sur, desde Bahía San Juan Bautista hasta San Evaristo.Se recomienda a la población que se encuentra en zonas de influencia del sistema y a la navegación marítima, extremar precauciones y atender las recomendaciones de las autoridades del Sistema Nacional de Protección Civil, ya que, debido a las lluvias, podrían registrarse deslaves, deslizamientos de laderas, desbordamientos de ríos y arroyos o afectaciones en caminos y tramos carreteros, así como inundaciones en zonas bajas y saturación de drenajes en sitios urbanos.Se exhorta a la población a mantenerse informada sobre las condiciones meteorológicas mediante las páginas de internet http://www.gob.mx/conaguay https://smn.conagua.gob.mx, así como en las cuentas de Twitter @conagua_mx y @conagua_clima y de Facebook http://www.facebook.com/conaguamx.

Lorena located on the Gulf of California, 90 km east-southeast of Loreto, Baja California Sur

Torrential rains are maintained in regions of Sonora, intense in areas of Baja California Sur, Chihuahua and northern Sinaloa and very strong points in Durango. At 10:00 a.m., Central Mexico time, Hurricane Lorena, category 1 on the Saffir Simpson scale, was located on the Gulf of California, 90 kilometers (km) east-southeast of Loreto, Baja California South, and 270 kmal south of Guaymas, Sonora, with maximum sustained winds of 120 km / h, gusts of 150km / h and displacement to the north at 19km / h. Wind gusts of over 80 km / h will persist for the next few hours. waves of 3 to 5 meters (m) and possibility of thrombus on the coasts of Baja California Sur, Sonora and Sinaloa, torrential rains in regions of Sonora, intense in areas of Baja California Sur, Chihuahua and northern Sinaloa as well as very specific points strong in Durango Surveillance area is updated for hurricane effects in Sonora, from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad, and for tropical storm effects in Baja California Sur, from San Juan Bautista Bay to San Evaristo. It is recommended to the population that is in areas of influence of the maritime navigation system, take precautions and comply with the recommendations of the authorities of the National Civil Protection System, since, due to the rains, landslides, landslides, river and stream overflows or road and highway sections may be affected , as well as floods in low areas and saturation of drains in urban sites. The population is urged to keep informed about the weather conditions through the web pages http://www.gob.mx/conaguay https://smn.conagua.gob.mx , as well as on Twitter accounts @c onagua_mx and @conagua_clima and Facebook http://www.facebook.com/conaguamx

Source: https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 21 Sep, 2019 9:00 GMT

Hurricane LORENA is currently located near 24.6 N 110.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). LORENA is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. LORENA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% currently
        probability for TS is 80% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% currently
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Rosarito (26.5 N, 111.7 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours
    Guaymas (28.0 N, 111.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours
    La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

NONE

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
FZPN03 KNHC 211523
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT SEP 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN SEP 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON SEP 23.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
HURRICANE LORENA NEAR 25.6N 110.6W 986 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 21
MOVING N OR 350 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT
GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM NE AND
SW QUADRANTS…20 NM NW QUADRANT AND 40 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE…AND 45 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 120
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT FROM 23N TO 26.5N.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LORENA NEAR 27.0N 111.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LORENA INLAND NEAR 29.0N 111.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NE QUADRANT…50 NM SE QUADRANT…30 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 20 NM NW QUADRANT. OVER FORECAST WATERS SEAS TO
12 FT WITHIN 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT FROM 28N TO 30N.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA INLAND NEAR 31.0N
112.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM MARIO NEAR 18.9N 110.5W 998 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP
21 MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
150 NM NE QUADRANT…120 NM SE QUADRANT…75 NM SW QUADRANT…
AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150
NM S AND 90 NM N SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
IN MIXED SWELL FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W…AND FROM
08N TO 25N W OF 110W TO A LINE FROM 08N120W TO 16N114W TO
22N120W TO 25N120W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MARIO NEAR 21.1N 112.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 0 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM N AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS
TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 108W AND
115W. FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 103 AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO NEAR 22.4N 113.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARIO NEAR 23.6N
113.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 60 NM
NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARIO NEAR 25.2N
114.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 18.4N 131.1W 997 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 21
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS
65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT
40 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM NE AND SW
QUADRANTS…90 NM NW QUADRANT AND 60 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO
18 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 13N
TO 23N BETWEEN 128W AND 138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 17.3N 133.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 40 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 60 NM N AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 16
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 14N TO 22N W
OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 16.0N 135.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 17.7N 137.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 18.9N 138.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO NEAR 18.5N 139.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W…AND FROM 03N TO 07N
BETWEEN 92W AND 102W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W…FROM 04N
TO 11N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W…AND FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 100W
AND 107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 90W AND 104W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.

.S OF 01S BETWEEN 102W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9
FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 01S BETWEEN 110W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21…

.HURRICANE LORENA…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 24.5N TO
26.5N BETWEEN 109W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM
23N TO 27N BETWEEN 107W AND 112W.

.TROPICAL STORM MARIO…NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 110.5W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 113W AND 115W.

.TROPICAL STORM KIKO…NUMEROUS MODERATE FROM 18N TO 19.5N
BETWEEN 130W AND 131.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 19.5N
BETWEEN 129W AND 130W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 11N87W TO
12N94W TO 11N102W THEN RESUMES W OF T.S. KIKO FROM 15N132W TO
12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 06N TO 07.5N BETWEEN 92W AND
96W…FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W…AND FROM 14N TO
15.5N BETWEEN 132W AND 138W.

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Bermuda: Major Hurricane HUMBERTO CAT3 18/1500Z near 32.2N 68.1W, ENE ~14kt wind 120mph 952mb (NHC FL) – Updated 18 Sep 2019 1700Z (GMT/UTC)

MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO CAT3 (09L)

BERMUDA BEWARE!

….…..AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS HUMBERTO
STRONGER AS THE MAJOR HURRICANE THREATENS BERMUDA…
…LARGE HURRICANE-FORCE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND…….

….. the
core of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and north
of Bermuda later tonight…..NHC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

 Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

144021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

 

 

000
WTNT34 KNHC 181438
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

…AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS HUMBERTO
STRONGER AS THE MAJOR HURRICANE THREATENS BERMUDA…
…LARGE HURRICANE-FORCE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…32.2N 68.1W
ABOUT 195 MI…310 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…952 MB…28.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 32.2 North, longitude 68.1 West. Humberto is now moving
toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general
motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected
through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-
northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast track, the
core of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and north
of Bermuda later tonight.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with
higher gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a
powerful hurricane through early Thursday while it passes close to
Bermuda. A steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday.

Humberto is a large hurricane and continues to grow in size.
Hurricane-force winds now extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
195 miles (315 km) based on reports from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft.

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 952 mb (28.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda this
evening and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds are
expected to reach tropical-storm strength later this afternoon,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with
maximum amounts of 6 inches expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda today. Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding. Wave heights exceeding
30 feet have already been reported by an offshore NOAA buoy.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water
levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
southern coast of Bermuda.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

BWS – Tropical Update Bulletin

HURRICANE HUMBERTO

IS A THREAT TO BERMUDA

Advisory #24,
12 pm Wed, Sep 18, 2019 (1500 UTC Wed, Sep 18, 2019)
Refresh browser for latest image
KEY: Blue = 34-50 kts, Yellow = 50-64 kts, and Red = 64 kts and greater
Diagonal shading indicates fringe winds (34kts or greater surrounding the storm’s core)
Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs (3 days) is forecast to be 78 nm to the NW, 8 pm Wed, Sep 18, 2019. However, this system may move closer to Bermuda after this time period depending upon its track.
Current Position: 32.2N 68.1W approx. 168 nm W of Bermuda
Recent Movement: ENE or 65 degrees at 14 kt
Central Pressure: 952 mb / 28.11 in
Max Winds: 105kt gusts 130kt
BWS Tropical Update Bulletins (TUBs), in line with NHC updates, are normally issued every 6 hours (03, 09, 15, and 21 UTC). When a tropical watch or warning is in effect for Bermuda, intermediate TUBs are issued at 3-hour intervals between the regular TUBs (06, 12, 18, and 00 UTC). Additionally, TUBs may be issued at any time due to significant changes in warnings or in the cyclone.

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 18 Sep, 2019 15:00 GMT

 

Intense Hurricane HUMBERTO is currently located near 32.2 N 68.1 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 105 kts (121 mph). HUMBERTO is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. HUMBERTO is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bermuda
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

DocR Bermuda H

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT24 KNHC 181438
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BERMUDA

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 68.1W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT……. 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT…….100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT…….150NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 300SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 68.1W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 68.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 33.5N 65.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT…100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT…150NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 36.1N 62.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT… 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT…100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT…170NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.6N 60.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT…100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT…200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.7N 59.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT…100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT…200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 43.3N 50.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 47.2N 33.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 54.0N 20.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 68.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4…AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Bermuda Marine Forecast

This forecast covers an area out to 25 nautical miles from the coastline
Issued at 11:30 am – Wednesday, September 18, 2019
The next scheduled update will be issued at 4:30 pm

Marine Synopsis –

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect – Category Three Hurricane Humberto is a threat to Bermuda and hurricane force winds are now expected to reach the island this evening. Expect showers, squalls & patchy heavy rain, as well as gusty thunderstorms. Southerly tropical storm force winds begin this afternoon ramping up to 50 knots by evening, increasing to hurricane force for a time this evening.Dangerous seas are also set to develop today. Winds veer west to northwest as Humberto moves away.

Today –

Winds southerly 15 to 25 knots, increasing 35 to 45 knots in the afternoon and 40 to 50 knots by early evening…  Widespread showers and rain with fair to poor visibility, and thunderstorms with very poor visibility. Seas rising rapidly from midday. Strongest winds in the northern marine area… Seas increasing, inside the reef 3 to 8 ft… Outside the reef 14 to 25 ft…  Sunrise: 7:04 am.

Tonight –

Winds southwesterly 50 to 65 knots gusts to 80 knots, easing westerly 30 to 40 knots gusts 55 knots overnight…  Widespread showers and rain with fair to poor visibility, and thunderstorms with very poor visibility. Seas rising rapidly. Strongest winds in the northern marine area… Seas increasing, inside the reef 3 to 8 ft… Outside the reef 25 to 37 ft…  Sunset: 7:21 pm.

Thursday –

Winds westerly 20 to 30 knots gusts to 40 knots, veering and easing northerly 15 to 20 knots by midday, easing 10 to 15 knots in the evening, veering northerly overnight…  Widespread showers easing to isolated during the morning with fair to poor visibility. Seas falling rapidly… Seas inside the reef 3 to 8 ft… Outside the reef 40 to 20 ft inside the reef 2 to 6 ft… Outside the reef 20 to 10 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:05 am; Sunset: 7:20 pm.

Friday –

Winds northerly 10 to 15 knots…  Scattered showers, risk thunder with fair to poor visibility… Seas inside the reef 2 to 4 ft… Outside the reef 15 to 10 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:05 am; Sunset: 7:18 pm.

Saturday –

Winds northerly 10 to 15 knots…  Seas inside the reef 2 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 7 to 10 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:06 am; Sunset: 7:17 pm.

Sunday –

Winds northerly 5 to 8 knots, veering northeasterly by afternoon and easterly overnight…  Seas inside the reef 1 to 2 ft… Outside the reef 4 to 6 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:07 am; Sunset: 7:16 pm.


Tides at St George’s (for Great Sound tides, add 10 minutes):
High: 12:02 pm this afternoon: 1.1m/3.6ft, 12:15 am tonight: 1m/3.3ft
Low: 5:58 pm this afternoon: 0.4m/1.3ft, 6:08 am Thursday: 0.4m/1.3ft
Sea Surface Temperature: 29.7°C/85.5°F
Meteorologist: Kimberley Zuill, Observer: Ashby Bradshaw

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Typhoon TAXAI (=CAT3 SSHWS) 08/1500Z 34.7°N 139.3°E, moving NNE 20km/h (12 kt) 955hPa wind 45m/s (85 kt) gust 60 m/s (120 kt)(RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 08 Sep 2019 1636Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon FAXAI 1915 14W

FAXAI is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (TSR UCL London data)

TOKYO BEWARE!

  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 45 FEET.- JTWC

JMA logo

 

 

 

 

TY 1915 (Faxai)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 8 September 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 8 September>
Scale
Intensity Very strong
Center position N34°40′ (34.7°)
E139°20′ (139.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 90 km (50 NM)
NW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 220 km (120 NM)
W 170 km (90 NM)
<Estimate for 16 UTC, 8 September>
Scale
Intensity Very strong
Center position N34°55′ (34.9°)
E139°25′ (139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 90 km (50 NM)
NW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 220 km (120 NM)
W 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 8 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°55′ (35.9°)
E140°00′ (140.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 40 km (20 NM)
Storm warning area SE 130 km (70 NM)
NW 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 9 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N37°00′ (37.0°)
E141°20′ (141.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area SE 150 km (80 NM)
NW 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 9 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N38°00′ (38.0°)
E142°55′ (142.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area SE 160 km (85 NM)
NW 120 km (65 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 9 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N38°50′ (38.8°)
E145°00′ (145.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

xxxx

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Sep, 2019 12:00 GMT

Typhoon FAXAI is currently located near 34.0 N 139.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 100 kts (115 mph). FAXAI is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. FAXAI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Typhoon 14W (Faxai) Warning #28
Issued at 08/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 34.0N 139.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 005 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.0N 139.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 36.5N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 38.6N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 21 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 40.6N 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 23 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 42.4N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 34.6N 139.6E.
08SEP19. TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 83 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z
AND 091500Z.//
NNNN

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

None

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP31 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1915 FAXAI (1915) 955 HPA
AT 34.7N 139.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 37.0N 141.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 38.8N 145.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

North Korea/ South Korea/ China: Typhoon Lingling 070900Z position near 39.3N 125.9E, moving N 19kt (JTWC) – Updated 07 Sep 2019 0935Z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON LINGLING 1913 15W

LINGLING is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Typhoon 15W (Lingling) Warning #22 Final Warning
Issued at 07/0900Z

wp1519

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
070600Z — NEAR 37.9N 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 005 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.9N 125.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z — 43.4N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 30 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 48.3N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 39.3N 125.9E.
07SEP19. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF YONGSAN AIN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. A 070521Z GMI 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING (TCB) WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED
LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION OVER LAND WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON
AN UNOFFICIAL PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5/4.0 (55/65 KNOTS), WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TCB STRUCTURE. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE
UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE MIDLATITUDE JET.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

JMA logo

 

 

TY 1913 (Lingling)
Issued at 07:00 UTC, 7 September 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 7 September>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N37°55′ (37.9°)
E125°20′ (125.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 560 km (300 NM)
W 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 7 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N44°20′ (44.3°)
E128°20′ (128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 65 km/h (34 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 8 September>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N48°40′ (48.7°)
E132°30′ (132.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 984 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

xxxx

South Korea

No.13 LINGLING

Issued at(KST) : 2019.09.07. 16:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2019.09.07. 06:00 Analysis 38.0 125.5 970 35 126 300
(S 210)
Strong Medium N 49
2019.09.07. 12:00 Forecast 40.9 127.1 975 32 115 280
(WNW 200)
Normal Small NNE 57 24
2019.09.07. 18:00 Forecast 43.7 129.1 980 29 104 250
(NW 170)
Normal Small NE 60 48
2019.09.08. 00:00 Forecast 46.4 132.1 985 24 86 NE 63
xxxx

Yellow Warning of Typhoon

06-09-2019Source: National Meteorological Center

 

The National Meteorological Center continued to release yellow warning of typhoon at 6:00 a.m. on September 6.

This year’s 13th typhoon Lingling is predicted to move northward direction at the speed of 25 km/h and enter southern Huanghai Sea in the night of September 6. It will make landfall from western Republic of Korea to southeastern Liaoning from the night of September 7 to the dawn of September 8 (severe tropical storm, scale 10-11, 25-30m/s).

From September 6 to 7, sea areas around Diaoyu Islands, East China Sea, and central Huanghai Sea will be exposed to scale 8-11 gale. Coastal regions of Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Hangzhou Bay, Yangtze River Estuary, and coastal regions of Taiwan Island will be exposed to scale 6-7 gale.

Taiwan Island, northeastern Zhejiang, and eastern Shandong Peninsula will be subject to moderate to heavy rain. There is rainstorm (100-120mm) in some regions. (Sep. 6)

Editor: Liu Shuqiao

CMA launched level four emergency response to address the impacts of typhoon Lingling

06-09-2019Source: China Meteorological Administration
The National Meteorological Center continued to issue yellow warning of typhoon on September 6. In order to address impacts incurred by typhoon Lingling, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) activated a level four emergency response at 8:30 a.m. on September 6. It is required that the relevant meteorological sectors attached to CMA enter the emergency position immediately and put corresponding meteorological services in place. The potential affected areas such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Liaoning, and Heilongjiang are expected to sustain or adjust the emergency state according to local realities. (Sep.6)

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 Sep, 2019 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Typhoon LINGLING is currently located near 37.9 N 125.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). LINGLING is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. LINGLING is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    North Korea
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    South Korea
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Sariwon (38.5 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    P’yongyang (39.0 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kanggye (41.0 N, 126.6 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Sinuiju (40.1 N, 124.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Hamhung (39.9 N, 127.6 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Ch’ongjin (41.8 N, 129.8 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Vladivostok (43.1 N, 132.0 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Khabarovsk (48.4 N, 135.1 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

None

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP22 RJTD 070600
WARNING 070600.
WARNING VALID 080600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1913 LINGLING (1913) 970 HPA
AT 37.9N 125.3E KOREA MOVING NORTH 21 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 44.3N 128.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 48.7N 132.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

 

Bahamas/ US (Florida)/ Caribbean: Catastrophic HURRICANE DORIAN CAT5 01/1200Z 26.5N 76.5W, moving W ~07kt Wind 160mph 927mb (NHC FL) – Updated 01 Sep 2019 1245Z (GMT/UTC)

CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DORIAN

Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

…EYEWALL OF NOW CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DORIAN ABOUT TO
HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS WITH DEVASTATING WINDS…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
EXPECTED……NHC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach

Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches or warnings
may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida today – NHC FL

 

… EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN WILL HIT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA TODAY ….

…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED…

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES: NORTH ELEUTHERA, ABACO, GRAND BAHAMA, BIMINI, THE BERRY ISLANDS AND NEW PROVIDENCE. – Bahamas Met

 

SEE COMMENTS AT BOTTOM OF PAGE FOR UPDATES

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE FL

115245_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

 

Satellite

000
WTNT35 KNHC 011152
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

…EYEWALL OF NOW CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DORIAN ABOUT TO
HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS WITH DEVASTATING WINDS…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
EXPECTED…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…26.5N 76.5W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 225 MI…360 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…160 MPH…260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…927 MB…27.37 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches or warnings
may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian
was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 76.5 West. Dorian
is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower
westward motion should occur for the next day or two, followed by a
gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of
extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian should be moving over Great
Abaco soon, and continue near or over Grand Bahama Island later
tonight and Monday. The hurricane should move closer to the Florida
east coast late Monday through Tuesday night.

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane which just penetrated
the eye of Dorian indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is
now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is
expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km). Elbow Cay in the Abaco Islands just reported winds
of 35 mph (56 km/h)

The minimum central pressure just measured by an Air Force plane was
927 mb (27.37 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Devastating hurricane conditions are expected in the Abacos
Islands very soon and these conditions will spread across Grand
Bahama Island later today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas…12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula
through Georgia…2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

 

xxxx

BAHAMAS

BAHAMAS PUBLIC FORECAST

ALERT #28 ON HURRICANE DORIAN ISSUED BY THE BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY SUNDAY, 1ST SEPTEMBER 2019 AT 6AM EDT.
… EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN WILL HIT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA TODAY ….

…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED…

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES: NORTH ELEUTHERA, ABACO, GRAND BAHAMA, BIMINI, THE BERRY ISLANDS AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT THE MENTIONED ISLANDS WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH ANDROS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT THE MENTIONED ISLAND WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 5AM EDT, THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 76.0 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 72 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARSH HARBOUR, ABACO; 74 MILES NORTHEAST OF NORTH ELEUTHERA; 115 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF EAST END, GRAND BAHAMA; AND 125 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEW PROVIDENCE.
HURRICANE DORIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT NEAR 8 MPH AND A SLOWER WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. ON THIS TRACK, THE CORE OF DORIAN SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MILES PER HOUR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORIAN IS A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY, BUT DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK INDICATES THAT RESIDENTS IN ABACO ARE NOW EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT ABOUT 11AM THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, RESIDENTS IN EAST GRAND BAHAMA WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AT ABOUT 9AM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT ABOUT 6PM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN IN WEST END, GRAND BAHAMA AT ABOUT 5PM AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE EXPERIENCED BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 8AM TO 8PM TODAY IN NORTH ELEUTHERA. RESIDENTS IN NEW PROVIDENCE AND NORTH ELEUTHERA ARE NOW EXPERIENCING INTERMITTING SEVERE SHOWER ACTIVITIES FROM THE OUTER-BANDS OF DORIAN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
THE EYE OF DORIAN IS NOW FORECAST TO PASS OVER ABACO BETWEEN MARSH HARBOUR AND TREASURE CAY BETWEEN 3PM AND 4PM TODAY. THE EYE WILL THEN MOVE OVER EASTERN GRAND BAHAMA BETWEEN 11PM TONIGHT AND 5AM MONDAY MORNING. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD NOT BE DECEIVED BY THE LULL IN THE WINDS AS THE EYE PASSES BUT REMAIN INDOORS AND PREPARE FOR THE SECOND PHASE OF THE HURRICANE.

SINCE DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT NEARS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES UP TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SHORES OF ELEUTHERA AND ABACO TODAY AND THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SHORES OF GRAND BAHAMA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 24 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA AND 2 TO 4 INCHES AND UP TO 6 INCHES IN ISOLATED AREAS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT AS LARGE TO DANGEROUS SWELLS ARE LIKELY.
THE NEXT ALERT ON HURRICANE DORIAN WILL BE ISSUED AT 9AM EDT SUNDAY, 1ST SEPTEMBER 2019.
PREPARED BY: JEFFREY SIMMONS

For more go here: http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/

NWS in Florida

Jacksonville
Key West
Melbourne
Miami
Tallahassee
Tampa Bay Area

NWS Radar

Jacksonville

Key West

Melbourne

Tallahassee

Tampa Bay area

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 1 Sep, 2019 9:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane DORIAN is currently located near 26.4 N 76.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 130 kts (150 mph). DORIAN is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DORIAN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Bahamas
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Freeport (26.6 N, 78.6 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours
    Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
    Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nassau (25.1 N, 77.3 W)
        probability for TS is 50% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

None

 

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT25 KNHC 010851
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO SEBASTIAN
INLET IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO
DEERFIELD BEACH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 76.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT……. 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 76.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 75.6W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.6N 77.1W
MAX WIND 135 KT…GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT… 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT…GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT… 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 26.9N 78.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT…GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT…GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT…100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.9N 79.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT…130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 31.8N 79.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 34.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 76.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5…AT 01/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

000
FZNT23 KNHC 010857
OFFNT3

Offshore Waters Forecast for the SW and Tropical N Atlantic and
Caribbean Sea
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Tropical N Atlantic from 07N to
22N between 55W and 64W, the SW N Atlantic S of 31N W of 65W
including Bahamas, and the Caribbean Sea.

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

AMZ001-012100-
Synopsis for Caribbean Sea and Tropical N Atlantic from 07N to
19N between 55W and 64W
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS…Hurricane Dorian is moving slowly W across the
Atlantic Ocean over open waters just E of the northern Bahamas.
A tropical wave in the far eastern Caribbean will reach the
central Caribbean Mon night and western Caribbean by Wed. Moderate
to fresh winds are expected across the eastern and central
Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing over the NW
Caribbean.

$$

AMZ011-012100-
Caribbean N of 18N W of 85W including Yucatan Basin-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…S to SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Scattered
showers.
.TONIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms.
.MON…S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms.
.MON NIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
Scattered showers.
.TUE…S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED…SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.THU…Variable winds less than 5 kt in Yucatan Channel, and E to
SE 10 to 15 kt elsewhere. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

AMZ013-012100-
Caribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including Cayman Basin-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms.
.TONIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
Scattered showers.
.MON…S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.MON NIGHT…S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Scattered showers.
.TUE…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.THU…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

AMZ015-012100-
Caribbean Approaches to the Windward Passage-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to SE to S in the
afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT…SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.MON…E winds 10 kt, shifting to S in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
or less.
.MON NIGHT…S to SW winds 10 kt, shifting to SE late.
Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.THU…NE to E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ017-012100-
Gulf of Honduras-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…S to SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.MON…S winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to W to NW in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft or less. Scattered showers and isolated tstms.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE…Variable winds less than 5 kt S of 17N W of 87W, and SE
10 kt elsewhere. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.THU…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ019-012100-
Caribbean from 15N to 18N between 80W and 85W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.MON…SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE…E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.THU…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

AMZ021-012100-
Caribbean from 15N to 18N between 72W and 80W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.THU…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

AMZ023-012100-
Caribbean N of 15N between 64W and 72W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

AMZ025-012100-
Offshore Waters Leeward Islands-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU…E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ027-012100-
Tropical N Atlantic from 15N to 19N between 55W and 60W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers.
.MON…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU…E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ029-012100-
W Central Caribbean from 11N to 15N W of 80W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt within 60 nm of coast of
Nicaragua, and E 15 to 20 kt elsewhere. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

AMZ031-012100-
Caribbean from 11N to 15N between 72W and 80W including Colombia
Basin-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.WED…NE to E winds 20 to 25 kt within 90 nm of coast of
Colombia, and E 15 to 20 kt elsewhere. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.THU…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.

$$

AMZ033-012100-
Caribbean S of 15N between 64W and 72W including Venezuela Basin-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt Gulf of Venezuela, and E 15 to
20 kt elsewhere. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt Gulf of Venezuela, and E
15 to 20 kt elsewhere. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt Gulf of Venezuela, and E 15 to
20 kt elsewhere. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt Gulf of Venezuela, and E
20 to 25 kt elsewhere. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.THU…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt Gulf of Venezuela, and E 15 to
20 kt elsewhere. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

AMZ035-012100-
Offshore Waters Windward Islands including Trindad and Tobago-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered
showers.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.THU…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ037-012100-
Tropical N Atlantic from 07N to 15N between 55W and 60W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers.
.MON…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ039-012100-
SW Caribbean S of 11N including Approaches to Panama Canal-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…Variable winds less than 5 kt S of 10N, and NE 10 to
15 kt elsewhere. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered showers.
.TONIGHT…Variable winds less than 5 kt S of 10N, and N to NE
10 to 15 kt elsewhere. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON…Variable winds less than 5 kt S of 10N, and NE to E 10 to
15 kt elsewhere. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
tstms.
.MON NIGHT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED…Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED NIGHT…S of 10N, NW to N winds 10 kt in the evening,
becoming variable less than 5 kt. Elsewhere, N to NE winds 10 to
15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.THU…S of 10N, variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming W to NW
10 kt in the afternoon. Elsewhere, NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas
3 to 5 ft.

$$

AMZ101-012100-
Synopsis for the SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS…
Category 4 Hurricane Dorian near 26.4N 76.0W 934 mb at 5 AM EDT
moving W at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 130 kt gusts 160 kt.
Dorian will move to 26.6N 77.1W this afternoon, 26.7N 78.1W Mon
morning, 26.9N 78.7W Mon afternoon, 27.0N 79.0W Tue morning, and
27.6N 79.4W Wed morning. Dorian will weaken slightly in intensity
as it moves to the 28.9N 79.8W early Thu, and continue to near
31.8N 79.6W early Fri.

$$

AMZ111-012100-
Atlantic from 27N to 31N W of 77W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. N of 29N W of 79W, NE to E
winds 15 to 20 kt. Elsewhere, NE to E winds 40 to 45 kt,
increasing to 55 to 60 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 to 19 ft in E
swell. Scattered showers and isolated tstms.
.TONIGHT… HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NE to E winds 20 to
25 kt N of 29N W of 79W, and NE to E 65 to 80 kt elsewhere. Seas
15 to 23 ft in NE to E swell. Scattered showers and isolated
tstms. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.MON… HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NE to E winds 20 to 25 kt
N of 29N W of 79W, and E 80 to 100 kt elsewhere. Seas 16 to 25 ft
in NE to E swell. Scattered showers and isolated tstms. Vsby 1 NM
or less.
.MON NIGHT… HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NE to E winds 25 to
30 kt N of 29N W of 79W, and E 80 to 100 kt elsewhere. Seas 20 to
30 ft in NE to E swell. Scattered showers and isolated tstms.
Vsby 1 NM or less.
.TUE… HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NE to E winds 30 to 35 kt
N of 29N W of 79W, and E to SE 75 to 95 kt elsewhere. Seas 23 to
35 ft in E swell.
.TUE NIGHT… HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.WED… HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.WED NIGHT… HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.THU… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

$$

AMZ113-012100-
Atlantic from 27N to 31N between 70W and 77W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY… HURRICANE CONDITIONS. E winds 20 to 25 kt N of
29N, and E to SE 50 to 65 kt elsewhere. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. N of 29N, E to SE
winds 20 to 25 kt. Elsewhere, SE winds 45 to 50 kt, diminishing
to 35 to 40 kt late. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated tstms.
.MON… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SE winds 35 to 40 kt.
Seas 8 to 12 ft in S swell. Scattered showers and isolated tstms.
.MON NIGHT… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SE winds 35 to
40 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft in SE to S swell. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms.
.TUE… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SE to S winds 35 to
40 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft in SE to S swell.
.TUE NIGHT… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.WED… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.WED NIGHT… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.THU… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

$$

AMZ115-012100-
Atlantic from 27N to 31N between 65W and 70W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt N of 29N, and E to SE 10 to
15 kt elsewhere. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers.
.TUE…S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…S to SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…S to SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT…SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU…SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

AMZ117-012100-
Bahamas including Cay Sal Bank-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY… HURRICANE CONDITIONS. Atlc Exposures, S to SW winds
90 to 110 kt. Elsewhere, SW to W winds 40 to 45 kt, increasing to
85 to 95 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 11 ft in N swell.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT… HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. Atlc Exposures, SE to
S winds 75 to 85 kt, diminishing to 45 to 50 kt late.
Elsewhere, SW winds 90 to 110 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in N swell.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.MON… HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. Atlc Exposures, SE to S
winds 40 to 45 kt, becoming S 30 to 35 kt in the afternoon.
Elsewhere, SW winds 90 to 100 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NE swell.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.MON NIGHT… HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SE to S winds 30 to
35 kt Atlc Exposures, and S to SW 90 to 100 kt elsewhere. Seas
6 to 8 ft in NE swell. Scattered showers and isolated tstms. Vsby
1 NM or less.
.TUE… HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. Atlc Exposures, SE to S
winds 25 to 30 kt. Elsewhere, S to SW winds 60 to 70 kt,
diminishing to 45 to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NE
swell.
.TUE NIGHT… HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.WED… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.WED NIGHT…S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU…S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ119-012100-
Atlantic from 22N to 27N E of Bahamas to 70W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY… HURRICANE CONDITIONS. N of 25N, SE to S winds 90 to
110 kt, diminishing to 60 to 70 kt in the afternoon. Elsewhere,
SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated tstms. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. N of 25N, SE
winds 45 to 50 kt, diminishing to 30 to 35 kt late.
Elsewhere, SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms.
.MON… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SE to S winds 35 to
40 kt N of 25N, and SE to S 10 to 15 kt elsewhere. Seas 6 to
8 ft. Scattered showers.
.MON NIGHT… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SE to S winds
35 to 40 kt N of 25N, and SE 10 to 15 kt elsewhere. Seas 4 to
6 ft. Scattered showers.
.TUE… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SE to S winds 35 to
40 kt N of 25N, and SE to S 15 to 20 kt elsewhere. Seas 4 to
6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.WED…S winds 20 to 25 kt N of 25N, and SE 10 to 15 kt
elsewhere. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT…SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.THU…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

AMZ121-012100-
Atlantic from 22N to 27N between 65W and 70W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated tstms.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers.
.TUE…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.THU…E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ123-012100-
Atlantic S of 22N W of 70W including Approaches to the Windward
Passage-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.THU…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ125-012100-
Atlantic S of 22N between 65W and 70W including Puerto Rico
Trench-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers.
.TUE…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.THU…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ127-012100-
Atlantic from 19N to 22N between 55W and 65W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered showers.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU…E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

Forecaster KONARIK
===========================================================================================================

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