Rodrigues /Mauritius /LaReunion /Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone #Eleven (11S) 082100Z position nr 15.2S 69.8E, moving W 05kt (JTWC) – Published 08 Mar 2017 2100z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Eleven (11S)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 15.2S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 70.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 15.3S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 15.8S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 16.9S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 18.7S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 21.8S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 14 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 24.8S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 28.2S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 69.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR)
AND A 081732Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. THE PREVIOUSLY FRAGMENTED CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND
CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE LLCC OVER THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 081732Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWING THE TIGHT LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM OF T2.5-3.0 FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH A SMALL BUT DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER
THE SYSTEM, ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). SSTS ALSO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION WITH TEMPS
OBSERVED NEAR 30C. SINCE THE SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AT
THIS TIME, THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE IS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTH, STEERING TC 11S SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE TIME
BEING. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF TC 09S ARE CURRENTLY
PROVIDING SOME PRESSURE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
DISPLACING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OFF THE LLCC, AND
LIMITING POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. AS UPPER-
LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS REESTABLISHED BEYOND TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY AT
TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC11S WILL
TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, THEN TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWEST AS IT
STRENGTHENS AND THE STEERING SHIFTS TO A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE
TO THE EAST. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FOREWORD MOTION AFTER
TAU 36 DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE SYSTEM TO THE EAST.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE TRACK, WITH SOME INITIAL DISAGREEMENT OF
THE TIMING OF THE TURN SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS 14 FEET. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

=============================================================================

WTIO31 FMEE 081914
RSMC / CENTER OF LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONES
ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING CYCLONE (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) NEWSLETTER
0.A NEWSLETTER: 9/7/20162017
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7
2.A POSITION HAS 1800 UTC ON 03/08/2017:
WITHIN A RADIUS OF 20 MINUTES AROUND THE POINT 15.2 S / 70.0 E
(SIXTY TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DEGREES ZERO‘S)
DISPLACEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A WIND MAX (MEDIUM/10 MIN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RVM): VOID
6.A WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM) EXTENSION:
28 KT ONLY: 0 SE: 200 SO: 190 NO.: 0
7.A SIDE/DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION PORTRAIT OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION: AVERAGE
1.B FORECASTS:
12 H: 03/09/2017 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 68.3 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
24: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 67.8 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
36H: 10 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 67.7 E WIND MAX = 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 10 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 19.5 S / 66.1 E WIND MAX = 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 11 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 63.1 E WIND MAX = 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 11 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.1 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
2.B TREND FURTHER:
96H: 12 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 25.4 S / 54.7 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
120H: 13 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 29.4 S / 54.4 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, POSTTROPICALE DEPRESSION
2.C COMMENTS:
T = 2.5, CI = 2.5
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS GENERALLY IMPROVING BUT IT IS
A VERY RECENT. THE N18 1416Z WATCH AGAIN PASS A CENTER EXPOSES A
WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, AND IT IS SINCE SHORTLY BEFORE 17Z ONLY ONE
BURST OF CONVECTION TAKES PLACE VERY NEAR THE CENTER. THE ASCAT PASS OF THE
EVENING CONFIRMS INTENSITY ANALYZED. IF THIS TREND IS CONSOLIDATING
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SMALL
WINDOW OF FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY
THE MINIMUM SE MOVED SLOWLY IN THE WEST BRANCH UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW/MEDIUM RIDGE
TROPOSPHERE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH EAST OF THE BASIN. TOMORROW NIGHT, THE
MODELS AVAILABLE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO PREDICT A TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTH BUT WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES, WHICH CAUSES A
UNCERTAINTY AVERAGE WELL REPORTED BY THE DISPERSION OF THE FORECAST
OVERVIEW OF THE CEP. THIS WEEKEND, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER HIS
PATH ON THE SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHWEST AND
SPEED UP BYPASSING THIS RIDGE.
THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM MAKES IT PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE HAS ITS
ENVIRONMENT, INCLUDING ALTITUDE, WHICH MAKES FORECASTING
HARD INTENSITY. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT, THE ASCENT OF A THALWEG
ALTITUDE FROM THE MIDDLE LATITUDES (WAVE SURGE OF)
ROSSBY) CAUSES THE APPEARANCE OF A SECTOR MODERATE CONSTRAINT
NORTH. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL DATA, MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICK OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALLOW IT TO LIMIT ITS
WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVOURABLE, WITHOUT WEAKENING
INFLUENCE ON BAROCLINIC NET DYNAMICS OF ALTITUDE. IN THE PROCESS OF
WEEKEND WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE THALWEG OF ALTITUDE AND MAINTAINING
A GREAT DIFFERENCE POLAR, THE SYSTEM COULD BE

REINTENSIFIER.

WTIO31 FMEE 081914
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/7/20162017
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 7
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/03/2017 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 70.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 4 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 200 SO: 190 NO: 0
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/03/2017 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
24H: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
36H: 10/03/2017 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
48H: 10/03/2017 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
60H: 11/03/2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
72H: 11/03/2017 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2017 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
120H: 13/03/2017 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=2.5 CI=2.5
LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE EST GLOBALEMENT EN AMELIORATION MAIS C’EST
TRES RECENT. LA PASS N18 DE 1416Z MONTRE ENCORE UN CENTRE EXPOSE A
L’OUEST DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE, ET C’EST DEPUIS PEU AVANT 17Z QU’UN
BURST DE CONVECTION A LIEU TRES PRES DU CENTRE. LA PASS ASCAT DE LA
SOIREE CONFIRME L’INTENSITE ANALYSEE. SI CETTE TENDANCE SE CONSOLIDE
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT PROFITER DE LA PETITE
FENETRE DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES POUR S’INTENSIFIER PLUS
SIGNIFICATIVEMENT
LE MINIMUM SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L’OUEST SOUS
L’INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSES/MOYENNES
TROPOSPHERE SITUEE SUR LA PARTIE SUD-EST DU BASSIN. DEMAIN SOIR, LES
MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT EN BON ACCORD POUR PREVOIR UN VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD MAIS AVEC DES DIFFERENCES DE TIMING, CE QUI PROVOQUE UNE
INCERTITUDE MOYENNE BIEN BALISEE PAR LA DISPERSION DE LA PREVISION
D’ENSEMBLE DU CEP. CE WEEK-END, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA
TRAJECTOIRE SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET
ACCELERER EN CONTOURNANT CETTE DORSALE.
LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME LE REND PARTICULIEREMENT SENSIBLE A SON
ENVIRONNEMENT, NOTAMMENT EN ALTITUDE, CE QUI REND LA PREVISION
D’INTENSITE DIFFICILE. A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR, LA REMONTEE D’UN THALWEG
D’ALTITUDE DEPUIS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES (DEFERLEMENT D’ONDE DE
ROSSBY) PROVOQUE L’APPARITION D’UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE SECTEUR
NORD. SELON LES DERNIERES DONNEES MODELES, LE DEPLACEMENT
RELATIVEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE LIMITER SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT AU SEIN DE CET ENVIRONNEMENT MOINS FAVORABLE, SANS
INFLUENCE BAROCLINE NETTE DE LA DYNAMIQUE D’ALTITUDE. EN COURS DE
WEEK-END, AVEC LA DISSIPATION DU THALWEG D’ALTITUDE ET LE MAINTIEN
D’UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE POLAIRE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT SE
REINTENSIFIER.

===========================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 24/1 March 08 2017 – 18:39:19 UTC
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 24/2 March 08 2017 – 18:35:46 UTC
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 24/3 March 08 2017 – 12:32:19 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST March 08 2017 – 17:44:07 UTC
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST March 08 2017 – 12:44:02 UTC

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

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Madagascar:Ex Tropical Cyclone Enawo 09S 081800Z Position nr 17.9S 46.6E, moving SW 08 Kt (RSMC LaReunion) – Updated 08 Mar 2017 1956z (GMT/UTC)

==

Ex Tropical Cyclone Enawo 09S

WTIO31 FMEE 081910 CCA
FIX *.
RSMC / CENTER OF LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONES
ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING CYCLONE (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) NEWSLETTER
0.A NEWSLETTER: 6/26/20162017
1.A DEPRESSION ON EARTH 6 (EX-ENAWO)
2.A POSITION HAS 1800 UTC ON 03/08/2017:
WITHIN A RADIUS OF 30 MINUTES AROUND THE POINT 17.9 S / 46.6 E
(SEVENTEEN NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTYSIX DEGREES SIX IS)
DISPLACEMENT: SOUTHWEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NOTHINGNESS
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NILE
5.A WIND MAX (MEDIUM/10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RVM): VOID
6.A WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM) EXTENSION:
28 KT DON’T: 430 SE: 440 SO: NO. 0: 0
34 KT IS: 0 SE: 350 SO: NO. 0: 0
7.A SIDE/DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR: 1002 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION PORTRAIT OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION: AVERAGE
1.B FORECASTS:
12 H: 03/09/2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 46.3 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, DEPRESSION ON EARTH
24: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 46.5 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, DEPRESSION ON EARTH
36H: 10 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 47.7 E WIND MAX = 045 KT, POSTTROPICALE DEPRESSION
48H: 10 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 30.9 S / 49.2 E WIND MAX = 045 KT, POSTTROPICALE DEPRESSION
60H: 11 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 34.5 S / 47.8 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICAL
72H: 11 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 37.4 S / 44.2 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICAL
2.B TREND FURTHER:
96H: 12 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 46.0 S / 46.6 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C COMMENTS:
FIX ON THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WHICH IS NOT FILLED (SYSTEM ON)
EARTH)
EX-ENAWO CONTINUES TO SINK INTO THE MALAGASY LAND IN
DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH A TENDENCY TO THE DOWNTURN
ON THE LAST 6 HOURS. HE SHOULD DIVE MORE FRANKLY IN
HEADING SOUTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ACCELERANT.
CONFIGURING SATELLITE REMAINS THE SAME, WITH THE PRESENCE OF
ACTIVE CONVERGENCE LINES (ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL AND THE)
COAST NORTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR AT THE ELECTRICAL LEVEL) SE FAR FORMING
CENTER IN PART ON SEA IN THE NORTH-WEST QUADRANTS AND SOUTHEAST
THE TRAFFIC.
IN THE COMING DAYS, THE DISPLACEMENT CONTINUES ON A
TRAJECTORY THAT SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME MERIDIAN WITH THE WEAKENING
THE RIDGE PRESENT ON AVERAGE TROPOSPHERE ON MADAGASCAR. THE
ORDER OF THE WIND BLOW STRONG WINDS SHOULD REMAIN PRESENT THROUGHOUT
THE COAST IS MALAGASY DURING THIS DESCENT, IS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST
MALAGASY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW NIGHT OR NEXT. AT THE
RE-RELEASE AT SEA (THURSDAY NIGHT (A FRIDAY), THE BEGINNING OF A TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICAL SHOULD START QUICKLY ENOUGH IN INTERACTION
WITH A WATER-COURSE OF ARRIVING BY THE SOUTHWEST INTO A ALTITUDE
VERY CISAILLEE ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL OCEANIC
DECREASING QUICKLY.
WTIO31 FMEE 081910 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/6/20162017
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 6 (EX-ENAWO)
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/03/2017 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.9 S / 46.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : NIL
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 440 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SO: 0 NO: 0
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1002 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/03/2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
24H: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
36H: 10/03/2017 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
48H: 10/03/2017 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
60H: 11/03/2017 06 UTC: 34.5 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 11/03/2017 18 UTC: 37.4 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2017 18 UTC: 46.0 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, SE DISSIPANT
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
CORRECTIF SUR LA PRESSION CENTRALE QUI EST NON RENSEIGNEE (SYSTEME SUR
TERRE)
EX-ENAWO CONTINUE DE S’ENFONCER DANS LES TERRES MALGACHES EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST AVEC UNE TENDANCE AU RALENTISSEMENT
SUR LES DERNIERES 6 HEURES. IL DEVRAIT PLONGER PLUS FRANCHEMENT EN
DIRECTION DU SUD DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES EN ACCELERANT.
LA CONFIGURATION SATELLITAIRE RESTE IDENTIQUE, AVEC LA PRESENCE DE
LIGNES DE CONVERGENCE ACTIVES (SURTOUT SUR LE NORD DU CANAL ET LA
COTE NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR AU NIVEAU ELECTRIQUE) SE FORMANT LOIN
DU CENTRE EN PARTIE SUR MER DANS LES QUADRANTS NORD-OUEST ET SUD-EST
DE LA CIRCULATION.
DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS, LE DEPLACEMENT SE POURSUIT SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE QUI DEVRAIT VITE DEVENIR MERIDIENNE AVEC L’AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DE LA DORSALE PRESENTE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SUR MADAGASCAR. DES
VENTS FORTS DE L’ORDRE DU COUP DE VENT DEVRAIT RESTER PRESENT LE LONG
DES COTES EST MALGACHES LORS DE CETTE DESCENTE, S’ETENDANT AU SUD-EST
MALGACHE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE DEMAIN OU NUIT SUIVANTE. A LA
RESSORTIE EN MER (NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI), LE DEBUT D’UNE TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICALE DEVRAIT S’AMORCER ASSEZ RAPIDEMENT EN INTERACTION
AVEC UN TALWEG D’ALTITUDE ARRIVANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT TRES CISAILLEE ET AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
DIMINUANT RAPIDEMENT.
SWI$06_20162017 REUNION 08

==========================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

Not available at time of posting

=========================================================

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 09S (Enawo) Warning #10 Final Warning
Issued at 07/2100Z

sh0917 JTWC 08

09S_071800sair

WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071800Z — NEAR 15.2S 49.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 49.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 16.5S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 18.1S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 21.1S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 49.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 459 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING CONTINUING TO SPIRAL INTO A DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER INLAND
OVER MADAGASCAR. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY
ERODE DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. CONCURRENTLY, TC 09S WILL
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE IMPACTS OF THE
TERRAIN. THE REMNANT VORTEX SIGNATURE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE PASSING SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

===============================================================================

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO24 FMEE 081837 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2017
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 08/03/2017 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ENAWO) NIL
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 46.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 240 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 60
NM OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN 18S AND 20S.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 110 NM OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN 17S AND 21S.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2017/03/09 AT 06 UTC:
21.4 S / 46.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2017/03/09 AT 18 UTC:
25.0 S / 46.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CORRECTIVE: CENTRAL PRESSURE UNKNOWN (OVER-LAND DEPRESSION)
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE SPREADING SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF
MADAGASCAR.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Seychelles/Madagascar: Very Intense Tropical Cyclone FANTALA 08R 19S: (=CAT5-SS) – Published 18 Apr 2016 1638Z (GMT/UTC)

Very Intense Tropical Cyclone‬ FANTALA‬ (08R‬ 19S)

(= CATEGORY 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 40 FEET.

Tropical Cyclone Fantala

5 Day Forecast (Image: @wunderground)

Tropical Cyclone Fantala

Image: @wunderground Satellite

ZCZC 048
WTIO30 FMEE 181238 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/8/20152016
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA)
2.A POSITION 2016/04/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / 49.3 E
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 910 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 130 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 100 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/04/19 00 UTC: 9.4 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2016/04/19 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2016/04/20 00 UTC: 10.5 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2016/04/20 12 UTC: 11.4 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2016/04/21 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2016/04/21 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/04/22 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2016/04/23 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=7.0-, CI=7.5-
NNNN

WTIO31 FMEE 181238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE OF LA REUNION
ANALYSIS REPORT AND FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A BULLETIN NUMBER: 30/8/20152016
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA)
2.A POSITION AT 1200 UTC ON 18/04/2016:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / E 49.3
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0 / 7.5 / 0.5 W / H 6
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 910 HPA
5.A MAX WIND (MEDIUM / 10 MN): 130 KT
RAY OF MAXIMUM WIND (RVM): 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION BY WINDS QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: SO 240 250 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 100 SE: SO 110 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE SE 80 80 SO: 100 NO: 80
64 KT NE SE 60: 60 SW: 70 NO: 60
7.A / DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 04/19/2016 00 UTC: 9.4 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY
INTENSE
24H: 19/04/2016 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
36H: 20/04/2016 00 UTC: 10.5 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
48H: 20/04/2016 12 UTC: 11.4 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND = 090 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
60H: 21/04/2016 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND = 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 21/04/2016 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND = 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B TREND LATER:
96H: 22/04/2016 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND = 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 23/04/2016 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND = 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C:
T = 7.0-, 7.5- CI =
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS EYE FANTALA REMAINS VERY WELL
DEFINED AND HOT. SUMMITS PERIODS HAVE warmed up slightly.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXCELLENT FLOW ALOFT OUTGOING.
SLOWING THE SYSTEM STILL ON WEST CAP. THE HIGH CELL
Geopotentials OF MADAGASCAR AND WEAKENING SHOULD BE FANTALA
QUIT TONIGHT.
TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DOUBLE RIDGE MIDDLE OF EQUATORIAL
TROPOSPHERE MEAN THAT BUILDS NORTHEAST AND FRONT OF
LARGE TROUGH OF MID-LATITUDE, FANTALA SHOULD RE-ACCELERATE
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
Wednesday and Thursday, ALWAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR RIDGE
EQUATORIAL CITED AND PRE-NEW DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH, THE
TRACK COULD ORIENTATION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY NEW CELL MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE
TROPOSPHERE COULD REBUILD IN MADAGASCAR AND SYSTEM
COULD RESUME AGAIN If FIXING TRACK BEFORE
NORTH-WEST.
THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS ARE IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS
SCENARIO BEFORE MATURITY.
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, TAKING ACCOUNT OF THE SLOWDOWN
METEOR, THEN IT PASSES TOMORROW MORNING ON WATER HE ALREADY
Traveled, THEREFORE LESS ENERGY CONTENT, MAY FANTALA
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY EVEN IF THE DIFFERENCE IN CONDITIONS
ALTITUDE REMAIN VERY FAVOURABLE.
FROM WEDNESDAY THE DIFFERENCE CONDITIONS ARE IN ALTITUDE
SLIGHTLY LESS GOOD, BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD FIND WATER
MORE HOT AND SHOULD REMAIN HIGH INTENSITY.
AFTER LATEST MODELS, VERTICAL SHEAR
WIND SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ON THE TRACK
PROVIDED AT END OF ÉCHÉANCWTIO31 FMEE 181238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE OF THE MEETING
ANALYSIS REPORT AND FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A BULLETIN NUMBER: 30/8/20152016
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA)
2.A POSITION AT 1200 UTC ON 18/04/2016:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / E 49.3
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0 / 7.5 / 0.5 W / H 6
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 910 HPA
5.A MAX WIND (MEDIUM / 10 MN): 130 KT
RAY OF MAXIMUM WIND (RVM): 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION BY WINDS QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: SO 240 250 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 100 SE: SO 110 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE SE 80 80 SO: 100 NO: 80
64 KT NE SE 60: 60 SW: 70 NO: 60
7.A / DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 04/19/2016 00 UTC: 9.4 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY
INTENSE
24H: 19/04/2016 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
36H: 20/04/2016 00 UTC: 10.5 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
48H: 20/04/2016 12 UTC: 11.4 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND = 090 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
60H: 21/04/2016 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND = 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 21/04/2016 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND = 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B TREND LATER:
96H: 22/04/2016 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND = 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 23/04/2016 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND = 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C:
T = 7.0-, 7.5- CI =
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS EYE FANTALA REMAINS VERY WELL
DEFINED AND HOT. SUMMITS PERIODS HAVE warmed up slightly.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXCELLENT FLOW ALOFT OUTGOING.
SLOWING THE SYSTEM STILL ON WEST CAP. THE HIGH CELL
Geopotentials OF MADAGASCAR AND WEAKENING SHOULD BE FANTALA
QUIT TONIGHT.
TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DOUBLE RIDGE MIDDLE OF EQUATORIAL
TROPOSPHERE MEAN THAT BUILDS NORTHEAST AND FRONT OF
LARGE TROUGH OF MID-LATITUDE, FANTALA SHOULD RE-ACCELERATE
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
Wednesday and Thursday, ALWAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR RIDGE
EQUATORIAL CITED AND PRE-NEW DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH, THE
TRACK COULD ORIENTATION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY NEW CELL MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE
TROPOSPHERE COULD REBUILD IN MADAGASCAR AND SYSTEM
COULD RESUME AGAIN If FIXING TRACK BEFORE
NORTH-WEST.
THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS ARE IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS
SCENARIO BEFORE MATURITY.
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, TAKING ACCOUNT OF THE SLOWDOWN
METEOR, THEN IT PASSES TOMORROW MORNING ON WATER HE ALREADY
Traveled, THEREFORE LESS ENERGY CONTENT, MAY FANTALA
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY EVEN IF THE DIFFERENCE IN CONDITIONS
ALTITUDE REMAIN VERY FAVOURABLE.
FROM WEDNESDAY THE DIFFERENCE CONDITIONS ARE IN ALTITUDE
SLIGHTLY LESS GOOD, BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD FIND WATER
MORE HOT AND SHOULD REMAIN HIGH INTENSITY.
AFTER LATEST MODELS, VERTICAL SHEAR
WIND SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ON THE TRACK
PROVIDED AT END OF ÉCHÉANCE

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) Warning #14
Issued at 18/0900Z

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1916.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/19S_180600sams.jpg

Google Earth Overlay

 

WTXS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
180600Z — NEAR 9.3S 49.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 49.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z — 9.3S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 9.6S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 10.0S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 10.8S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 12.6S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 13.3S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 01 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 13.7S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 49.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FANTALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 783 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISTINCT 16-NM EYE SURROUNDED BY
AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORE STRUCTURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW SUPPORTING THE
CURRENT INTENSITY. AN 180331Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN
INTENSE CONVECTIVE RING SURROUNDING THE EYE FEATURE WITH A SECOND
CONVECTIVE RING BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY, DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING IS WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE IN MSI IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 150 KNOTS BASED ON
AN ASSESSMENT OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. TC 19S IT TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD IN A VERY
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS). THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
INDICATING THAT THE STEERING MECHANISM IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT FROM
THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH TO A BUILDING NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD TC
FANTALA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND
DECREASING SSTS AS IT GAINS LATITUDE. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A
SECOND MID-LATITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH TURNING THE
CYCLONE WESTWARD TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE MULTIPLE TRACK CHANGES. DUE TO THIS
DISAGREEMENT AND THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.//
NNNN

S Indian Ocean: TSR Storm Alert issued at 18 Apr, 2016 6:00 GMT

Very Intense TC FANTALA is currently located near 9.3 S 49.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 150 kts (173 mph). FANTALA is a category 5 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. FANTALA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Seychelles
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Providence Is. (9.2 S, 51.1 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Antseranana (12.4 S, 49.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Vohimarina (13.3 S, 49.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Storm Tracker Map

(Images above: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 181228
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/04/2016
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 18/04/2016 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA) 910 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / 49.3 E
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR AND IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SECTOR
WITHIN OUTER BANDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/130 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2016/04/19 AT 00 UTC:
9.4 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2016/04/19 AT 12 UTC:
9.8 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

MASCARENES ISLANDS/MADAGASCAR: Tropical Cyclone HALIBA (15S, 11) 09/1200Z nr 21.8S 55.2E, moving ESE 8 Kts – Updated 090315 1640z (GMT/UTC)

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM (12) (RSMC La Reunion)

 TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (HALIBA) (JTWC)

MASCARENES ISLANDS SHOULD STILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM

 – (RSMC La Reunion)

si201516_5day 

si201516_sat_anim

ZCZC 549

ZCZC 549
WTIO30 FMEE 091222
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/12/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (HALIBA)
2.A POSITION 2015/03/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/03/10 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/03/10 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/03/11 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/03/11 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/03/12 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/03/12 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/03/13 12 UTC: 31.4 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2015/03/14 12 UTC: 35.1 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+ AND CI=3.0-.
HALIBA HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z AND PROBABLY REACHED ITS INTENSITY PEAK (MAX W
INDS AT ABOUT 45KT), TEMPORARILY SHOWING A RAGGED EYE AT 08Z .
AFTER THAT, COULD PATTERN HAD RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES A SEVERE IMPACT OF THE
WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-EASTWARDS WITHIN A WEST TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL HIGHS.
WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND EXPERIENCING BY THAT TIME SOME DEEP STRUCTURE CHANGES WITH A LARGER AND MORE ASYMMETRICAL WIND FIELDS SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM MAY LOOSE ITS PURE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESUME ITS SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITH AN ONGOING EXTRATROP PROCESS.
GIVEN THE ONGOING AND EXPECTED IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS, INHABITANT OF THIS AREA SHOULD STILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
NNNN

La Reunion

B_q3FKVU0AE3dbt.jpg large

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1615.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/16S_090530sams.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
090600Z — NEAR 21.3S 53.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 53.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 22.2S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 23.1S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 24.0S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 24.9S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 26.3S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 29.2S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 54.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDGET
SYSTEM WITH A SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND ON RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC HALIBA IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGE WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALLOWING TC 16S TO MODERATELY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS, PEAKING AT 55 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS, THE COMBINED EFFECT OF
INCREASING VWS AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z AND 100900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 091221
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2015 AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 09/03/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (HALIBA) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXIST WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/03/10 AT 00 UTC:
22.6 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2015/03/10 AT 12 UTC:
23.5 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

Further warnings here:

METAREA VII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Madagascar/Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Fundi 11S 08/2100Z POSITION nr 33.4S 43.8E, moving SW at 25 knots (JTWC) – Updated 080215 2220z

Tropical Cyclone Fundi 11S

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC LA REUNION

Bulletin du 08 février à 22H18 locales:
Il n’y a pas d’alerte en cours à La Réunion, et aucune menace cyclonique n’est envisagée pour les
prochaines 72 heures.
**************************************************
Nature du système dépressionnaire tropical présent sur le Sud-Ouest de l’Océan Indien.
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FUNDI.
Pression estimée au centre: 991 HPA.
Position le 08 février à 22 heures locales: 32.3 Sud / 44.2 Est.
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 1650 km au secteur: SUD-OUEST.
Déplacement: SUD-SUD-OUEST, à 33 km/h.
Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 09/02 à 22h locales, par 35.8 Sud / 40.6 Est.
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 10/02 à 22h locales, par 36.8 Sud / 40.1 Est.
SE DISSIPANT,
Centre positionné le 11/02 à 22h locales, par 38.8 Sud / 42.7 Est.
————————————————-
Attention: Les prévisions de trajectoire et d’intensité précédentes sont à considérer avec la plus
grande prudence compte tenu de leur incertitude. Elles ne concernent que la position du centre du
phénomène, sans considération sur son extension.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Prochain bulletin vers 05H locales
Translation (by google):
Bulletin 08 February at 10:18 p.m. local:
There is no current alert Reunion, and no hurricane threat is considered for
next 72 hours.
**************************************************
Nature of tropical low pressure system present on the Southwest Indian Ocean.
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM FUNDI.
Estimated central pressure: 991 HPA.
Position 8 February at 22 am local time: 32.3 South / 44.2 East.
Distance from Reunion coast: 1650 km sector: SOUTHWEST.
Displacement: SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, 33 km / h.
Here are the intensities and positions provided this low pressure system over the next few days:
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned 09/02 at 22h local by 35.8 South / 40.6 East.
EXTRATROPICAL,
Center positioned 10/02 at 22h local by 36.8 South / 40.1 East.
DISSIPATING,
Center positioned 11/02 at 22h local by 38.8 South / 42.7 East.
————————————————-
Warning: The forecast path and previous intensity should be treated with the most
caution because of their uncertainty. They are for the center position
phenomenon, regardless of its extension.
This newsletter is now complete.
Next bulletin to local 05H
WTIO31 FMEE 081825
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/9/20142015
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (FUNDI)
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/02/2015 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 32.3 S / 44.2 E
(TRENTE DEUX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 18 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :44 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 60
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/02/2015 06 UTC: 34.9 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
24H: 09/02/2015 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
36H: 10/02/2015 06 UTC: 36.2 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
48H: 10/02/2015 18 UTC: 36.8 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
60H: 11/02/2015 06 UTC: 37.6 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 11/02/2015 18 UTC: 38.8 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, SE DISSIPANT
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
SOUS LA DOUBLE INFLUENCE D’UN CISAILLEMENT ASSEZ FORT DE NORD-NORD-
OUEST ET D’INTRUSION D’AIR PLUS SEC DANS LA CIRCULATION DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE PAR LE NORD-OUEST, LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES
APPARAIT, A L’IMAGERIE MSG3, PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSEE AU NORD DE LA
CONVECTION RESIDUELLE.
CETTE ENTREE D’AIR PLUS SEC ET PLUS FRAIS AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION
MARQUE LE DEBUT DU PROCESSUS D’EXTRA-TROPICALISATION QUI DEVRAIT ETRE
COMPLETE DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI.
COMME PREVU, SOUS L’INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE DE BASSE ET MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE (CF Z700 ET Z850) QUI SE RECONSTRUIT AU SUD-EST, FUNDI A
RECOURBE ET RALENTI SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST.
IL DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE RALENTIR LUNDI EN SE DIRIGEANT GLOBALEMENT
VERS L’OUEST-SUD-OUEST.
CETTE DORSALE DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE RETRACTER VERS L’EST MARDI,
FUNDI DEVRAIT ALORS RECOURBER VERS LE SUD ASSEZ LENTEMENT DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS PUIS ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST MERCREDI ET SE DISSIPER
DANS LA NUIT SUIVANTE AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION PERTURBEE D’OUEST DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.
WTIO31 FMEE 081,825
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE OF LA REUNION
ANALYSIS REPORT AND FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A BULLETIN NUMBER: 12/9/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FUNDI)
2.A POSITION AT 1800 UTC ON 02/08/2015:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 32.3 S / 44.2 E
(THIRTY TWO THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 18 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5 / 3.0 / 0.5 W / H 6
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX WIND (MEDIUM / 10 MN): 40 KT
RAY OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RVM): 44 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANT (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE 280 SW 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE 190 SW 190 NO: 60
7.A / DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 02/09/2015 06 UTC: 34.9 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 035 KT, POST
TROPICAL
24H: 02/09/2015 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 40.6 E, MAX WIND = 030 KT, POST
TROPICAL
36H: 02/10/2015 06 UTC: 36.2 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND = 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL
48H: 02/10/2015 18 UTC: 36.8 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND = 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL
60H: 11/02/2015 06 UTC: 37.6 S / 41.0 E, MAX WIND = 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL
72H: 11/02/2015 18 UTC: 38.8 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND = 020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.B TREND LATER:
2.C:
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DOUBLE SHEAR STRONG ENOUGH OF NORTHWEST NORTH
INTRUSION OF WEST AND DRIER AIR AVERAGE CIRCULATION
LEVEL BY NORTHWEST FLOW LOW LAYERS
APPEARS IN IMAGING MSG3, PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH
RESIDUAL CONVECTION.
THIS ENTRY AIR DRIER AND COOLER IN TRAFFIC
MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE PROCESS OF EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION THAT SHOULD BE
COMPLETE IN MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY.
AS PROVIDED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW AND MIDDLE RIDGE
LEVEL (CF Z700 AND Z850) WHICH IS REBUILT SOUTHEAST, A FUNDI
CURLED AND SLOW TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW MOVING GENERALLY MONDAY
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
BACK THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY TO WITHDRAW FROM EASTERN Tuesday,
FUNDI RECURVE SHOULD THEN SOUTH RATHER SLOWLY IN
FIRST TIME THEN ACCELERATE SOUTH-EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DISSIPATE
IN THE NIGHT IN THE WEST OF DISTURBED TRAFFIC
MID-LATITUDE.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh1115

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/11S_081732sair.jpg
WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FUNDI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FUNDI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 32.8S 44.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 180 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 32.8S 44.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 35.1S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 33.4S 43.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FUNDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 840 NM SOUTH
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ELONGATING AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WHICH IS LEAVING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY EXPOSED. TC 11S HAS
MOVED INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 25C. IN ADDITION, DRY AIR IS WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE 081634Z SSMIS COLOR COMPOSITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE
AND CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO COMPLETE
DISSIPATION WITHIN 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA7 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 081817

WTIO24 FMEE 081817
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2015
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 08/02/2015 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FUNDI) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 32.3 S / 44.2 E
(THIRTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, UP TO 450 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT WITHIN OUTER PERIPHERAL BANDS, AND ALSO
LOCALLY UP TO 600 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/02/09 AT 06 UTC:
34.9 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2015/02/09 AT 18 UTC:
35.8 S / 40.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
FUNDI IS PROGRESSIVELY LOSING ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.=

More warnings here:

METAREA VII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Madagascar/ Mozambique: Tropical Cyclone (21S) HELLEN 010300Z nr 17.2S 46.0E, moving SSE at 5 knots (JTWC) Overland Depression (RSMC La Reunion) – Updated 010414 0718z

Tropical Cyclone 21S Hellen

OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14 (EX-HELLEN) RESIDUAL ACTIVE CONVECTION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALMOST TOTALLY VANISHED OVER MADAGASCAR. (RSMC La Reunion)

ZCZC 073
WTIO30 FMEE 010013
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/14/20132014
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14 (EX-HELLEN)
2.A POSITION 2014/04/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 45.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/04/01 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
24H: 2014/04/02 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 43.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2014/04/02 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2014/04/03 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 41.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2014/04/03 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2014/04/04 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/04/05 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 36.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE RESIDUAL ACTIVE CONVECTION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALMOST TOTALLY VANISHED OVER MADAGASCAR. THE RESI
DUAL LLCC, OVERLAND, IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.
ACCORDING TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, MOST OF THE NWP MODELS FORECAST A MOVEMENT WEST TO SOUTH
WESTWARD FOR THE RESIDUAL LLCC WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EAST TO N
ORTH-EASTERLY FLOW GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RE-BUILDING SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE.
NONE OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS, INCLUDING THE MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE PREVISION, FORECASTS A RE-
INTENSIFICATION WHEN THE LOW WILL COME BACK OVER SEA AND CROSS THE MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL.
LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE RSMC LA REUNION UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.
NNNN

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 1 Apr, 2014 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm HELLEN (21S) currently located near 17.0 S 46.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soalala (16.1 S, 45.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2114.gif

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/21S_312330sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HELLEN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HELLEN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
010000Z — NEAR 17.0S 46.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 46.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 17.7S 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 46.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HELLEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) REVEALS THAT TC HELLEN HAS RAPIDLY ERODED AS
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME RAGGED AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS SHEARED AWAY AND SHALLOWED. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER MADAGASCAR FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AND WILL DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR, AND LAND INTERACTION CONTINUE
TO HAMPER THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TRACKING TC 21S BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH A CHANCE OF
REGENERATION WHILE MOVING TOWARDS THE AFRICAN LANDMASS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
NNNN

MARITIME

METAREA7 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING /

ZCZC 343
WTIO24 FMEE 311832 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/03/2014
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 31/03/2014 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: INLAND 14 (EX-HELLEN) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 45.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS UP TO 25 NM FROM
THE CENTRE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/04/01 AT 06 UTC:
16.5 S / 44.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, INLAND
24H, VALID 2014/04/01 AT 18 UTC:
17.0 S / 43.7 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.=
NNNN

 

Specialist weather for mariners: PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/indian/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Mozambique/ Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone 09S DELIWE 161500Z near 20.6S 43.2E, moving SSW at 10 knots (JTWC) – 160114 1848z

Tropical Cyclone 09S (Nine)

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  7 (RSMC La Reunion)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

ZCZC 326
WTIO30 FMEE 161300
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/7/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  7
2.A POSITION 2014/01/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 43.6 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE    DECIMAL
SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/17 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/01/17 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/01/18 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2014/01/18 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 37.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2014/01/19 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 36.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2014/01/19 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 36.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/01/20 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 35.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
120H: 2014/01/21 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 34.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
THE SYSTEM MOVED BACK OVERSEAS THIS MORNING JUST BEFORE 00Z AS IT HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS LOCATED TO THE EAST AND TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE OVERALL ORGANISATION OF THE CORE OF THIS RATHER SMALL
SIZE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED ALONG THE DAY WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
MW PRESENTATION (CF TRMM PASS AT 0812Z). THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES (GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PGTW AND
KNES ESTIMATES OF 1130Z) … WITH LACK OF OTHER OBJECTIVE EVIDENCES
TO PRECISE THIS ASSESSMENT.
UP TO SATURDAY, ALL THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST WITH A SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK
AND THEN A MORE WESTWARDS TRACK FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA. BEYOND, THERE IS
POOR AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCES AND THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST. THE CURRENT TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODELS MEAN
UP TO SATURDAY AND THEN CLOSE TO THE MEAN OF THE 3 LATEST OUTPUTS OF
ECMWF.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A ONLY A MODERATE
NORTHERLY CONSTRAINT AS A NEGATIVE FACTOR THAT SHOULD BE PARTLY
OFFSET BY THE MERIDIAN TRACK. BEYOND, THE CHANGE IN THE HEADING AND A
LOWER FORWARD MOTION SHOULD ENHANCE THE EFFECT OF THE SHEAR AND
THEREFORE SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. ON THE CURRENT SCENARIO, THE
SHEAR IS EVEN EXPECTED TO STRENGHEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT IS WORTH TO NOTE THAT EVEN WITH THE ALTERNATE SCENARII,
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGHENING SUGGESTED AT LONG RANGE AS THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE CLOSE OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS.=
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0914.gif

WTXS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161451Z JAN 14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001   
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
161200Z — NEAR 20.2S 43.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 43.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 21.9S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 23.7S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 24.6S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 24.6S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 23.2S 38.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 20.7S 37.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 18.9S 36.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 43.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 161224Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IMPROVED
BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THIS WELL MARKED LLCC
SEEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH (35 KNOTS)
BASED UPON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, ONE CHANNEL
NORTHWESTWARD AND ANOTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS STR WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT DRIVES THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST, WHICH WILL INITIALLY SLOW THE SYSTEM AS IT SWITCHES STEERING
INFLUENCES. AFTER TAU 48, THIS WESTERN STR WILL DRIVE TC 09S TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COAST
OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER WHICH, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR GENERAL INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS. AFTER THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST, INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
AS IT APPROACHES MOZAMBIQUE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, THERE IS
SOME SLIGHT VARIANCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS
THE SYSTEM SWITCHES STEERING INFLUENCES. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 152000Z JAN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 152000).//
NNNN

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 16 Jan, 2014 12:00 GMT

 

Tropical Storm NINE (09S) currently located near 20.2 S 43.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 65% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)
probability for TS is 55% currently
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

(Image: TSR) Storm Tracker Map (Click image for source)

MARITIME

ZCZC 144
WTIO24 FMEE 161226
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2014
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 16/01/2014 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7  1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 43.6 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS REACHING LOCALLY
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND 30 KT WITH ROUGH SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTER
AND MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/01/17 AT 00 UTC:
22.1 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2014/01/17 AT 12 UTC:
24.2 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=
NNNN

La Reunion/ Mauritius/ Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone 06S BEJISA 032100Z nr 24.2S 54.9E, moving SW at 5 knots (JTWC) – 030114 2310z

Tropical Cyclone Bejisa

 

= Tropical Storm strength (below Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 

(Please note time stamps on images/text)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

 

(Image: meteo.fr) La Reunion Radar

 

ZCZC 171
WTIO30 FMEE 031757
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/4/20132014
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (BEJISA)
2.A POSITION 2014/01/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 410 SW: 370 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/04 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2014/01/04 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/01/05 06 UTC: 28.5 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2014/01/05 18 UTC: 31.9 S / 47.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2014/01/06 06 UTC: 34.4 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2014/01/06 18 UTC: 36.2 S / 44.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.5
UNDER THE STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT AND OVER MARGINAL AND LOWERING OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT (SST BETWEEN 26.0 DG AND 26.5 DG).
BEJISA IS NOW TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PR
ESSURES IN THE LOW AND MID LAYERS. IT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE CLEARLY ON SUNDAY.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM COULD KEEP ON UNDERGOING THE WESTERLY TO NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER L
EVEL WIND-SHEAR ALOFT OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. THIS WIND-SHEAR WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT DUE THE CHANGE OF DIRECTION OF THE TRACK.
ON SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM MAY STAY LOCATED TEMPORARILY UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AND
THEN THE WEAKENING MAY BE LESS RAPID. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD BE AGAIN MORE RAPID ON SUNDAY WITH TH
E STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION FROM SUNDAY AND FILL UP MONDAY OR TUESDAY FAR AW
AY IN THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.
NNNN

Prvisions pour La Runion du Vendredi 03/01/14 17 h, valable pour la nuit prochaine et la journe du Samedi 04/01/14

 

Situation gnrale:

La Runion est en Phase de Sauvegarde.
Le flux s’oriente au secteur Nord-Ouest en faiblissant progressivement.
Pour information: La forte tempte tropicale BEJISA se situait 16 heures 240 km au secteur Sud de La Runion.

 

Prvisions pour la nuit prochaine:

La situation mtorologique se calme progressivement. Le ciel sera moins nuageux et les prcipitations vont continuer s’attnuer. Elles devraient se limiter l’ouest d’une ligne situe de St Joseph Ste Suzanne au cours de la nuit prochaine.

Le vent continue de faiblir. Il reste toutefois modr sur les rgion Est et Sud-Ouest de l’le avec des rafales de l’ordre de 60 km/h environ. Il souffle aussi sur St Denis et sur Petite Ile.

Prvisions pour le Samedi 04/01/14

Quelques averses sont encore attendues au lever du jour de St Gilles Ste Marie puis la situation s’arrange sur l’ensemble du dpartement. Les claircies sont plus gnreuses et les priodes ensoleilles plus nombreuses au cours de la matine, aussi bien sur les plaines, dans les cirques que sur les plages.

Au cours de l’aprs-midi, la grisaille s’installe sur le relief avec des prcipitations localement modres au sud d’une ligne allant de St Benoit St Leu. Le long du littoral, alternance d’claircies et de passages nuageux.

Le vent souffle du Nord-Ouest avec des rafales atteignant 50 55 km/h de La Possession Ste Suzanne et de Petite Ile Grand Bois. Ailleurs, les brises prdominent.

La mer est agite forte. Une houle de Sud-Sud-Ouest de 2m50 3m gnre par la Forte Tempte Tropicale BEJISA dferle sur les ctes Ouest et Sud de la Runion. Elle faiblit en fin de journe.

La plus grande prudence est recommande sur le littoral Ouest et Sud en raison de la houle.

 

Horaires des mares La Pointe des Galets le Samedi 04/01/14:

Basse : 09:31 et 21:58

Haute : 03:38 et 15:34

Cyclone Warning Bulletin Mauritius (English Version)

 

Thu, Jan 2, 2014

 

NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.
NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

 

ELEVENTH AND LAST CYCLONE BULLETIN ISSUED AT 20H00 ON THURSDAY 02
JANUARY 2014.

 

At 19h00 cyclone BEJISA was located near latitude 21.6 degrees south and longitude 55.0 degrees
east that is at about 275 km to the west south west of Le Morne. it is moving in a general south
easterly direction at about 14 km/h to eventually recurve towards the south.
On this trajectory BEJISA has started to move away from the region and hence no cyclonic conditions may occur over Mauritus.

 

NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

 

The showery weather will persist and will cause accumulation of water in some places. The
moisture in the lower atmosphere will maintain thick fog during the night and early morning.
The road users and the public at large are advised to be very cautious.
Wind will blow from the Northern sector with gusts of the order of 70 to 80 km/h in exposed places.
Sea will remain high with heavy swells and risks of beach inundation mainly to the Northern,
Western and Southern sectors. Ventures at sea are strictly forbidden.

 

NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.
NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0614.gif

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/06S_031730sair.jpg

 

WTXS32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
031800Z — NEAR 24.0S 55.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 220 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 55.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 24.7S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 26.2S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 28.2S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z — 30.2S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z — 34.0S 44.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 54.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING, YET TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031817Z METOP-A 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
ALSO WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR
ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS THE TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS
TC 06S ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) AND
INCREASING VWS. FURTHERMORE, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF COLDER SST
(LESS THAN 25 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND STRONGER VWS, WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN TC BEJISA. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BETWEEN
TAU 48 AND TAU 72. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z.//
NNNN

 

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 3 Jan, 2014 6:00 GMT

 

Tropical Cyclone BEJISA (06S) currently located near 23.1 S 55.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Reunion
probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently

 

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Storm Tracker Map

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

METAREA7 & 8S / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 1757

 

WTIO22 FMEE 031757
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/01/2014
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/01/2014 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (BEJISA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING
LOCALLY UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/01/04 AT 06 UTC:
24.8 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2014/01/04 AT 18 UTC:
26.2 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

India to Myanmar Possible Targets for Developing Tropical Cyclone

Early warning saves lives!
Related
Tropical Cyclone 24S 091200Z nr 7.6S 86.0E, moving SE at 07 knots (RSMC LaReunion) – 090513 1550z:
http://wp.me/p2k2mU-1Ps

TheSurvivalPlaceBlog

By Eric Leister

A large zone of unsettled weather near and south of India has resulted in the formation of one tropical cyclone, and another may form soon.

The first area, just east of Sri Lanka, will pose the greatest threat to land, as the potential tropical cyclone could bring impacts to areas from India to Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Farther south, Tropical Cyclone 24S formed on Wednesday from this broad area of unsettled weather.

The above satellite image from Thursday shows clouds associated with Tropical Cyclone 24S well south of India. Also seen is a cluster of showers and thunderstorms just southeast of Sri Lanka that could develop into another tropical cyclone.

Close monitoring of the area near Sri Lanka will be needed into the upcoming weekend for possible development.

If tropical development does occur to the east of Sri Lanka, the expected track of this tropical cyclone…

View original post 106 more words

Photo of the Day: Volunteers respond to storms and floods in Madagascar

Red Cross Talks

potd feb 28

Today’s photo shows how the Malagasy Red Cross Society is responding to tropical cyclone Haruna, which slammed into the southwest coast of Madagascar on February 22. The storm brought heavy rains and winds of over 170 kilometers per hour and crashed across the entire Big Island, leaving many villages and communities flooded.

To date, 18,000 people have been affected, 24 have died, and more than 1,100 homes have been destroyed. Infrastructure such as schools, government buildings, and health centres have been damaged as well.

Following the storm, volunteers with the Malagasy Red Cross Society immediately provided assistance to their communities, conducted evacuations, managed camps and offered psychosocial support to those affected. The main needs continue to be temporary shelter, food, water and sanitation.

As the situation evolves, the Malagasy Red Cross continues to conduct assessments in order to provide proper relief and response. Visit the IFRC to learn more about…

View original post 7 more words

 

10 dead as Haruna lashes Madagascar

(See bottom of page)

(Image: mtotec.com) Satellite imagery / Image satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia Moambique) MESSIR-NET IR SAT

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map

Service Mto Madagasikara

Bulletin cyclonique
de MADAGASCAR
Nom: HARUNA Date et heure : 22-02-2013 16:00 locale
TYPE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
Position en coordonnes gographique LE CYCLONE TROPICAL HARUNA A ATTERRI SUR LES COTES SUD-OUEST MALAGASY DANS LE DISTRICT DE MOROMBE AU NIVEAU DE CAP SAINT-VINCENT.
Position par rapport à un lieu HARUNA A TRAVERSE LES DISTRCTS DE MOROMBE ET TOLIARA OU IL SE TROUVE A 50KM A LEST DE LA VILLE DE TOLIARA
Pression du vent estim près du centre
Vitesse du vent estim près du centre Vent moyen 105KM/H
Rafales 150KM/H
Dplacement observ LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST EN PASSANT PAR LES DISTRCITS DE TOLIARA, BETIOKY-ATSIMO ET BEKILY POUR SORTIR EN MER AU NIVEAU DE DISTRICT DAMBOVOMBE LE SAMEDI MATIN
COMMENTAIRES
DES PLUIES TORENTIELLES SERONT ENCORE ATTENDUES DANS LES REGIONS CONCERNEES ET LA MER EST TRES GROSSE AUSSI LA MONTEE DES EAUX DE LA MER (FORTE HOULE) SUR TERRE EST-ELLE FORTEMENT A CRAINDRE SUR LES COTES SUD DE LILE
AVIS D’AVERTISSEMENT AVIS DE MENACE AVIS DE DANGER IMMINENT AVIS D’ALERTES LEVEES
MAHABO, IKALAMAVONY, FIANARANTSOA I-II, AMBALAVAO, IKONGO, IVOHIBE, VONDROZO, MANAKARA, VOHIPENO ET FARAFANGANA. MANJA , MORONDAVA, ANKAZOABO, BEROROHA, IHOSY, BETROKA, IAKORA, MIDONGY-ATSIMO, VANGAINDRANO ET BEFOTAKA. MOROMBE, TOLIARA I-II, AMPANIHY, BETIOKY-ATSIMO, SAKARAHA, BENENITRA, BEKILY, BELOHA, TSIHOMBE, AMBOVOMBE, AMBOASARY-ATSIMO ET TAOLAGNARO..

BULLETIN DU 24 FEVRIER A 16H35 LOCALES:

IL N’Y A PAS D’ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE MENACE CYCLONIQUE N’EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES
**************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L’OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE EX-HARUNA
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 995 HPA
POSITION LE 24 FEVRIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 26.9 SUD / 54.2 EST
(VINGT SIX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST)

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES : 635 KM AU SECTEUR: SUD-SUD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST A 31 KM/H

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 25/02 A 16H LOCALES PAR: 26.6 S / 58.4 E

DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 26/02 A 16H LOCALES PAR: 25.6 S / 60.0 E

DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 27/02 A 16H LOCALES PAR: 23.8 S / 58.6 E

SE DISSIPANT,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 28/02 A 16H LOCALES PAR: 22.1 S / 53.3 E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D’INTENSITE PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON EXTENSION.

————————————————-

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
DERNIER BULLETIN SUR CE SYSTEME SAUF REINTENSIFICATION.

BULETIN DARI 24 04:35 Februari LOKAL:

ADA ALERT NO SELAMA A lareunion # DAN TIDAK ADA ANCAMAN CYCLONE ADALAH DIRENCANAKAN UNTUK 72 JAM BERIKUTNYA
**************************************************

SIFAT INI SISTEM TEKANAN RENDAH TROPIS OVER THE SELATAN-BARAT INDIAN OCEAN

Subtropis DEPRESI EX-Haruna
TEKANAN ESTIMASI CENTER: 995 HPA
POSISI pada 24 Februari UNTUK 16 JAM LOKAL: 26,9 SELATAN / TIMUR 54,2
(DUA PULUH ENAM DERAJAT SELATAN DAN LIMA PULUH SEMBILAN EMPAT DUA DERAJAT TIMUR)

JARAK DARI COAST Reunion: AREA KM 635: SELATAN-BARAT
GERAKAN: TIMUR-TENGGARA AT 31 KM / H

BERIKUT POSISI DAN INTENSITAS SISTEM TEKANAN RENDAH DIBERIKAN SELAMA BEBERAPA HARI BERIKUTNYA:

Subtropis DEPRESI,
PUSAT POSISI ON 25/02 16H OLEH LOKAL: 26,6 S / E 58,4

VACUUM FILLING UP,
PUSAT POSISI ON 26/02 16H OLEH LOKAL: 25,6 S / E 60,0

VACUUM FILLING UP,
PUSAT POSISI ON 27/02 16H OLEH LOKAL: 23,8 S / E 58,6

Menghilang,
PUSAT POSISI ON 28/02 16H OLEH LOKAL: 22,1 S / E 53,3

PERINGATAN: THE TRACK PRAKIRAAN DAN INTENSITAS ADALAH SEBELUMNYA UNTUK DIPERTIMBANGKAN DENGAN PERHATIAN EXTREME DI VIEW OF KETIDAKPASTIAN MEREKA. MEREKA BERHUBUNGAN DENGAN PUSAT FENOMENA THE, TANPA MEMPERHATIKAN EXTENSION ITS.

————————————————-

BULETIN INI ADALAH SEKARANG COMPLETE.
TERAKHIR PERNYATAAN INI SISTEM KECUALI REINTENSIFICATION.

ZCZC 850
WTIO30 FMEE 230658
ZCZC 048
WTIO30 FMEE 241243
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/9/20122013
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (EX-HARUNA)
2.A POSITION 2013/02/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.9 S / 54.2 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 0 SW: 140 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/02/25 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2013/02/25 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2013/02/26 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2013/02/26 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 60.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2013/02/27 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2013/02/27 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/02/28 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 53.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
AMSU CROSS SECTION OF BRIGHTNESS TEMP ANOMALIES SHOW THAT THE WARM CORE ASSOCIATED WITH EX-HARUNA
IS BECOMING SHALLOWER AND LESS SYMETRICAL. THE SYSTEM IS LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
HARUNA IS NOW RACING EASTWARDS UNDER THE COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBU
ILDING IN ITS SOUTH-WEST AND A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A LOW TO M
ID-LEVEL MID-LAT TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF EX-HARUNA. ON AND AFTER MONDAY LATE, AS
THE MID-LAT LOW BYPASS THE SYSTEM, THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE TO THE LEFT ON THE NORT
H-EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.IT IS THEN EXPECTED ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY TO TRACK GLOBAL
LY WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEFORE DISSIP
ATION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION. FURTHER INFORMATIONS WILL BE PROVIDED IN TH
E AWIO20 BULLETIN DAILY ISSUED AT 12Z.
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

ZCZC 850
WTIO24 FMEE 231823
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/02/2013
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 23/02/2013 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (EX-HARUNA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 49.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE
EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 MN
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, LOCALLY
REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2013/02/24 AT 06 UTC:
25.8 S / 51.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2013/02/24 AT 18 UTC:
26.4 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC Graphic (Click image for source)
kml icon Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
241200Z — NEAR 27.2S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 110 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.2S 54.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 27.2S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 27.0S 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 54.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 241223Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM BUT THE
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS
BASED ON A 240822Z OSCAT PASS SHOWING 40 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 16S IS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS OFFSETTING THE
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A JET MAX SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHILE
WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 24, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 16S
WILL TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE AFTER TAU 36 AS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
(RUSTY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) AND TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Haruna
(wunderground.com)

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-
00 GMT 02/19/13 20S 41.2E 40 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 02/19/13 21.3S 40.8E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 02/20/13 21.4S 40.7E 65 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 02/20/13 22.1S 40.7E 80 Category 1
00 GMT 02/21/13 22.5S 41.4E 110 Category 2
12 GMT 02/21/13 22.3S 41.9E 115 Category 3
00 GMT 02/22/13 22.2S 43.0E 105 Category 2
12 GMT 02/22/13 23S 43.9E 90 Category 1
00 GMT 02/23/13 24.3S 46.3E 70 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 02/23/13 25.4S 48.6E 50 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 02/24/13 26.2S 51.0E 50 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 02/24/13 27.2S 54.1E 45 Tropical Storm

10 dead as Haruna lashes Madagascar

A tropical cyclone has hit the Indian Ocean island of Madagascar. Cyclone Haruna, with its wind and rain, has killed ten people and destroyed the homes of nearly 3,000 others.

Disaster teams have been working to repair the damage wrought by the cyclone which struck on Friday morning.

Even though it left the island 24 hours after it began, torrential rain has continued to pound part of the island, along with strong gusts of wind.

Cyclone Haruna has now been downgraded to a tropical storm. But, it is still expected that a lot of rain will fall in southern Madagascar in the coming couple of days. The south of the island took the brunt of the cyclone. The city of Morombe, which is in the south-west, was almost destroyed.

Sunday, 24 February, 2013 at 06:09 UTC RSOE

 

Tropical Cyclone 13S (#Felleng)(SS-TS) 010900Z nr 21.7S 50.8E, moving SSE at 06 Kts(JTWC) – 010213 1210z

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)
(Image: JTWC) TC track (Click image for source)
(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTXS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
010600Z — NEAR 21.3S 50.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 165 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 50.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z — 23.0S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z — 24.7S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z — 26.6S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 28.2S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 31.6S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 35.8S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 50.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
WEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE DIURNALLY FLARING CONVECTION, BUT DESPITE
THE STRONG TO MODERATE (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION. A 010433Z SSMIS 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO REVEAL A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
WHILE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
BANDING CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERIES. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED UPON THE MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 60 KNOTS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 60 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, DUE TO THE
SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO REVEAL THE STRONG TO MODERATE VWS WHILE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTLFLOW REMAINS ROBUST. TC 13S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE (STR), POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
THIS TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 AND THEN WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD
AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND APPROACHES THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW IS OFFSET BY THE
INCREASINGLY STRONG VWS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH
SHARPLY DROPS BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS POLEWARD OF 30S. THE SYSTEM
IS ALSO FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU
48 AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.//
NNNN

Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Felleng

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-
112 GMT 01/26/13 12.9S 65.5E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 01/27/13 13.6S 63.9E 40 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 01/27/13 13.6S 62.3E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 01/28/13 13.2S 59.9E 40 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 01/28/13 13.3S 58.4E 50 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 01/29/13 13.5S 56.5E 75 Category 1
12 GMT 01/29/13 14.1S 54.9E 105 Category 2
00 GMT 01/30/13 14.7S 53.8E 120 Category 3
12 GMT 01/30/13 16.2S 52.6E 135 Category 4
18 GMT 01/30/13 17S 52.2E 120 Category 3
06 GMT 01/31/13 18.2S 51.1E 100 Category 2
18 GMT 01/31/13 20S 50.5E 80 Category 1
06 GMT 02/01/13 21.3S 50.7E 70 Tropical Storm

(Credit: wunderground.com)

==================================================

(Image: meteo.fr) TC trajectoire (Click image for source)

BULLETIN DU 01 FEVRIER A 13H01 LOCALES:

PRE-ALERTE CYCLONIQUE EN COURS.
**************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL MENACANT LA REUNION:

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE FELLENG

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 973 HPA
POSITION LE 01 FEVRIER A 13 HEURES LOCALES:
21.5 SUD / 50.7 EST
(VINGT UN DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES SEPT EST)

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES :
470 KM AU SECTEUR: OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD A 11 KM/H

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE
AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 02/02 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 24.8 S / 51.1 E

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 03/02 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 28.1 S / 52.7 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 04/02 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 31.4 S / 53.8 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 05/02 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 36.1 S / 57.0 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 06/02 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 41.1 S / 66.9 E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D’INTENSITE PRECEDENTES SONT
A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE COMPTE TENU DE LEUR
INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA POSITION DU CENTRE DU
PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON EXTENSION.

LES PROCHAINES PREVISIONS COMPLETES SUR CE SYSTEME SERONT ELABOREES DANS 3 HEURES.

————————————————-

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. REACTUALISATION A 16H30

 

-

 

BULLETIN FROM 01 FEBRUARY TO LOCAL 1:01 p.m.:

PRE-ALERT CYCLONE DURING.
**************************************************

NATURE OF TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THREATENING THE MEETING:

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM Felleng

PRESSURE ESTIMATED CENTER: 973 HPA
POSITION ON 01 FEBRUARY TO 13 HOURS LOCAL:
SOUTH 21.5 / 50.7 IS
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN IS)

DISTANCE FROM COAST Reunion:
470 KM AREA: WEST
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 11 KM / H

THE FOLLOWING POSITIONS AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS:

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM,
CENTRE POSITIONS ON 02/02 10H BY LOCAL: 24.8 S / 51.1 E

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM,
POSITIONING THE CENTRE 03/02 10H BY LOCAL: 28.1 S / 52.7 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICAL,
CENTRE POSITIONS ON 04/02 10H BY LOCAL: 31.4 S / 53.8 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICAL,
POSITIONING THE CENTRE 05/02 10H BY LOCAL: 36.1 S / 57.0 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICAL,
POSITIONING THE CENTRE 06/02 10H BY LOCAL: 41.1 S / 66.9 E

WARNING: THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE PREVIOUS
CONSIDER WITH EXTREME CAUTION IN VIEW OF THEIR
UNCERTAINTY. THEY RELATE TO THE CENTRE OF
PHENOMENON, WITHOUT REGARD TO ITS EXTENSION.

FUTURE FORECASTS ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COMPLETED IN 3 HOURS WORKED.

————————————————-

THIS BULLETIN IS NOW COMPLETE. UPDATING A 4:30 p.m.

 

 

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at31 Jan, 201318:00 GMT GMT

Tropical Cyclone FELLENG (13S) currently located near 20.0 S 50.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
probability for TS is 85% currently
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Tropical Cyclone (07) #DUMILE 031500Z nr 22.6S 54.3E, moving S at 28 Km/h (RSMC La Reunion) – 030113 1700z

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0713.gif

RSMC La Reunion (SW Indian Ocean)

BULLETIN DU 03 JANVIER A 19H00 LOCALES:

PHASE DE SAUVEGARDE DES 20H LOCALES
**************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL MENACANT LA REUNION:

CYCLONE TROPICAL DUMILE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 972 HPA
POSITION LE 03 JANVIER A 19 HEURES LOCALES:
22.6 SUD / 54.3 EST
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES TROIS EST)

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES :
180 KM AU SECTEUR: SUD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD A 28 KM/H

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE
AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 04 16H PAR: 26.4 S / 54.8 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 05 16H PAR: 31.0 S / 60.5 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 06 16H PAR: 37.2 S / 71.5 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 07 16H PAR: 40.7 S / 78.8 E

DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 08 16 PAR: 40.2 S / 82.8 E

LES PROCHAINES PREVISIONS COMPLETES SUR CE SYSTEME SERONT ELABOREES DANS 3 HEURES.

————————————————-

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 22H30 LOCALES

Alertes cycloniques
Un cyclone approche
PR-ALERTE CYCLONIQUE ALERTE ORANGE ALERTE ROUGE
Menace potentielle
dans les jours venir
(au-del de 24 heures)
Danger dans
les 24 heures
Danger imminent
Tenez-vous inform Tenez-vous inform Tenez-vous inform
Suivez les prvisions
mtorologiques
et les bulletins dinformation
Tous les tablissements
scolaires et les crches
ferment,
mais lactivit
conomique continue
Le passage en alerte rouge
est annonc avec un
pravis de 3 heures
Ne pas entreprendre
de longues randonnes
en montagne
ou des sorties en mer
de plus de 24 heures
Rentrez les objets
que le vent peut emporter
Profitez de ce pravis pour
rejoindre votre domicile
ou vous mettre labri
Vrifiez vos rserves
(conserves, eau, piles pour radio
et lampes, mdicaments)
Rentrez vos animaux Pass ce dlai
NE SORTEZ EN AUCUN CAS
Si vous tes insuffisant rnal
ou respiratoire, rapprochez-vous
sans dlai de votre tablissement
de sant habituel
Protgez vos portes et
fentres
(volets, planches)
Ne tlphonez quen cas
dabsolue ncessit
Ne vous approchez pas
du rivage en cas de forte houle
Vrifiez vos rserves
(conserves, eau, piles,
mdicaments)
RESTEZ INFORM
Assurez-vous de connatre
ladresse et le tlphone
du centre dhbergement
le plus proche de votre domicile
Vrifiez ladresse
et le tlphone
du centre dhbergement
le plus proche
RESTEZ CALME
NE PANIQUEZ PAS
Notez les numros de tlphone
utiles:
15 SAMU,
18 Pompiers,
17 Police et Gendarmerie
Prparez une vacuation
ventuelle
Attendez la leve de
lalerte rouge pour sortir
et ne prenez votre vhicule
que si le rseau routier
est annonc praticable
APRS LE CYCLONE
PHASE DE SAUVEGARDE
RESTEZ TRS PRUDENT !
Ne franchissez pas les radiers submergs ou les ravines en crue.
Ne touchez pas les fils lectriques tombs terre.
Nencombrez pas les lignes tlphoniques.
Ne gnez pas les quipes de secours.
Attention la qualit de leau que vous buvez.
Prfrez leau en bouteille, ou traitez leau du robinet si vous devez la boire.
Assurez-vous que la circulation est autorise et ne prenez votre vhicule quen cas de ncessit.
Dclenche par le prfet aprs un cyclone, pendant ou aprs une vigilance mtorologique, la phase de sauvegarde peut sassortir dinterdictions de circuler, de la fermeture des coles, etc.
BULLETIN FROM 03 JANUARY TO LOCAL 7:00 p.m.:PHASE FOR THE PROTECTION OF LOCAL 20H
**************************************************

NATURE OF TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THREATENING THE MEETING:

TROPICAL CYCLONE Dumile

PRESSURE ESTIMATED CENTER: 972 HPA
POSITION ON 03 JANUARY TO 19 HOURS LOCAL:
SOUTH 22.6 / 54.3 IS
(TWENTY TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX FOUR THREE DEGREES EAST)

DISTANCE FROM COAST Reunion:
180 KM AREA: SOUTHWEST
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 28 KM / H

THE FOLLOWING POSITIONS AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS:

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM,
POSITIONING THE CENTRE TO 04 PER 16H: 26.4 S / 54.8 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICAL,
POSITIONING THE CENTRE TO 05 PER 16H: 31.0 S / 60.5 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICAL,
POSITIONING THE CENTRE TO 06 PER 16H: 37.2 S / 71.5 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICAL,
POSITIONING THE CENTRE TO 07 PER 16H: 40.7 S / 78.8 E

VACUUM FILLING UP,
CENTRE POSITIONS ON 08 TO 16 PER: 40.2 S / 82.8 E

FUTURE FORECASTS ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COMPLETED IN 3 HOURS WORKED.

————————————————-

THIS BULLETIN IS NOW COMPLETE.
NEXT BULLETIN LOCAL REGISTERED TO 10:30 p.m.

https://i0.wp.com/www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/tpsreel/trajectoire.png
(Image: usno.navy.mil) IR Satellite Imagery

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 3 Jan, 2013 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone DUMILE (07S) currently located near 20.3 S 54.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Reunion
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTXS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
030600Z — NEAR 20.3S 54.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 180 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 54.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z — 22.6S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 24.7S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 26.7S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 29.0S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z — 33.7S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 54.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DUMILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS CONTINUED TO
WEAKEN AND TC 07S HAS LOST ITS EYE. A 030501Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE BUT WEAK
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN EYEWALL AND THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 65 KNOTS, BASED UPON CONGRUENT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME INTENSITY FROM PGTW AND KNES, WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS TC 07S HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLIES TO
THE SOUTH BUT MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC
07S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO RECURVE AROUND THE STR AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD
AFTER TAU 24 AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 48
AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN 65 KNOTS
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) (26-28 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND THEN
SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING
VWS AND COOLER SST (LESS THAN 25C). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL
AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 030600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z.//
NNNN

Press Reports:

31 Dec 2012 (GMT/UTC):

Mto

La Runion a rendez-vous jeudi avec le cyclone Dumile

  • Clicanoo.re
  • publi le 31 dcembre 2012
  • 18h53

A peine effac les brumes du rveillon, il faudra sy prparer. Les conditions mtorologiques vont commencer se dgrader ds mercredi et jeudi. Et le cyclone tropical Dumile passera dans la matine au plus prs de nos ctes une distance qui reste dterminer.

Depuis que le cinquime systme de la saison a commenc tre suivi par le Centre des cyclones tropicaux de la Runion, le cne dincertitude, cernant 75% la trajectoire susceptible dtre suivie par le phnomne dans les cinq jours venir, na cess de se resserrer autour de notre le. A lorigine il stendait de la cte est de Madagascar jusquau del de Maurice. Depuis il na cess de se dcaler vers louest. Au point de 16h, le Centre des cyclones tropicaux envisageait un passage du centre du mtore sur la Runion dans la matine de jeudi.

A trois jours de lchance, la prvision nest bien videmment pas grave dans le marbre et demande encore tre affine. Mais quil passe louest, au dessus de notre le ou plus lest Dumile de part limportance de son dveloppement que rvle les photos satellites va immanquablement nous concerner. Il faut donc se prparer comme le rappelle le Centre des cyclones tropicaux. Il est important de ne pas se focaliser sur la position prvue prcise du centre du systme. Daprs les donnes de modles, il est probable que ce phnomne reste de taille suprieure la normale et gnre du temps dangereux sur une zone assez tendue. Les conditions mtorologiques devraient se dgrader bien avant le passage au plus prs du centre.

Cet aprs-midi 16h, le futur Dumile ntait encore quune dpression tropicale. Elle voluait 1 040 km au nord nord-est de nos ctes et se dplaait vers louest sud-ouest 11 km/h. Le cinquime systme de la saison, mais le quatrime susceptible dtre baptis, a dj trouv sur sa route Agalega survole par les masses nuageuses les plus actives du phnomne. 237 mm de pluie enregistre en 24h entre lundi 10h (heure de la Runion) et mardi 10h alors que la moyenne saisonnire (1971-2000) pour le mois de dcembre sur lle nest que 180.6mm.
Un chiffre consquent pour une petite le dont le niveau au-dessus de la mer ne dpasse pas trois mtres, indique le site Mto-Maurice.

Le systme devrait continuer sur une trajectoire oriente en direction gnrale du sud-ouest au cours des prochaines 24 heures, analyse 16h le Centre des cyclones tropicaux. Le phnomne devrait ensuite prendre une direction gnrale sud. Il devrait passer proximit ou sur les Mascareignes dans la matine de jeudi avant de svacuer vers les latitudes extratropicales. Les derniers modles disponibles prvoient un dplacement un peu plus rapide partir de mardi. Le passage au plus prs de la Runion a donc t avanc de presque six heures par rapport la prvision prcdente. En terme dintensit, le Centre des cyclones tropicaux maintient son analyse, lenvironnement mtorologique restant favorable lintensification. Cest donc bien au stade de cyclone tropical que Dumile devrait nous rendre visite jeudi.

Alain Dupuis clicanoo.re

Weather

Meeting the appointment Thursday with the cyclone Dumile

  • Clicanoo.re
  • published December 31, 2012
  • 6:53 p.m.

Just cleared the fog Eve, it will be prepared. Weather conditions will begin to deteriorate as early as Wednesday and Thursday. And tropical cyclone in the morning will Dumile closer to our shores at a distance to be determined.

Since the fifth season of the system began to be followed by the Tropical Cyclone Centre of the Meeting, the cone of uncertainty, identifying 75% of the trajectory may be followed by the phenomenon in the next five days, has continued to tighten around our island. Originally it extended from the east coast of Madagascar to Mauritius beyond. Since then he has continued to shift westward. Point 16h, the Tropical Cyclone Centre was considering a move to the center of the meteor in the meeting Thursday morning.

Three days before the deadline, the prediction is obviously not set in stone and needs to be further refined. But it goes to the west, above the island or to the east Dumile share the importance of its development shows that satellite photos will inevitably affect us. We must therefore prepare as recalled by the Centre of tropical cyclones. It is important not to focus on the precise position of the center of the planned system. According to the data model, it is likely that this phenomenon is larger than normal and generates dangerous times on a wide enough area. Weather conditions are expected to worsen before passing close to the center.

This afternoon at 16h, Dumile future was still a tropical depression. She moved to 1040 km north northeast of our coast and moved west southwest 11 km / h. system of the fifth season, but the fourth may be called, has already found its way Agalega overflown by cloud masses the most active phenomenon. 237 mm of rainfall recorded in 24 hours between Monday 10am (time of meeting) and Tuesday 10 am while the seasonal average (1971-2000) for the month of December on the island is only 180.6mm. Therefore a number for a small island with a level above the sea does not exceed three meters, says Maurice Weather website.

The system should continue on a course directed in the general direction southwest over the next 24 hours, the center 16h analysis of tropical cyclones. This phenomenon should then take a general southerly direction. It should pass near or over the Mascarene Islands in the Thursday morning before evacuating to extratropical latitudes. The latest models include moving a bit faster from Tuesday. The closest approach of the meeting has been advanced almost six hours compared to the previous forecast. In terms of intensity, Tropical Cyclone Centre maintains its analysis, the meteorological environment remains favorable for intensification. It is therefore in tropical cyclone that Dumile should we visit on Thursday.

Alain Dupuis clicanoo.re

02 Dec 2012:

Dumile passera au plus prs de la Runion demain aprs-midi

  • Clicanoo.re
  • publi le 2 janvier 2013
  • 19h01

“Dumile sest rapproch un train denfer de la Runion. “Le mtore est lanc sur sa trajectoire et ne devrait pas trop dvier au cours des 24 prochaines heures”, estime Mto France. Son passage au plus prs de nos ctes devrait avoir lieu dans laprs-midi. Dici l, le systme devrait encore se renforcer pour passer au stade de cyclone tropical.

“Le temps va se dgrader en dbut de journe. Les vents se renforceront progressivement sur la rgion nord, sur le sud sauvage ainsi que dans les hauts”, indique Mto France.

Au point de 19 heures, la forte tempte tropicale Dumile se trouvait 420 kilomtres au nord de La Runion (17.1 sud / 55.0 est). Elle fonce toujours en direction du sud sud-ouest la vitesse de 24 km/h.

Prvisions de Mto France pour cette nuit:

Le ciel reste couvert avec des pluies. Le vent de secteur Est soriente au Nord-Est en se renforant avec des rafales qui avoisinent 130 km/h sur les crtes exposes, elles restent de lordre de 100 110 km/h sur les ctes.

La houle de Nord-Est de 3 mtres en hauteur moyenne dferle de La Pointe de La Table au Cap La Houssaye, les vagues les plus hautes peuvent atteindre 6 mtres.

Prvisions de Mto France pour la journe de demain:

Au lever du jour, la dgradation du temps sintensifie progressivement sur lensemble du dpartement.

Le ciel est bas et couvert avec des pluies fortes sur les rgions du Nord, de lEst et du Nord-Ouest. Ailleurs, le ciel est aussi bien charg mais la pluie y est un peu moins intense le matin.

Le vent de Nord-Est se renforce avec des valeurs qui atteignent 150 km/h laprs-midi. sur les rgions exposes au vent. La mer est grosse trs grosse, localement norme sur les ctes exposes au vent.

La houle de Nord-Est atteind une hauteur moyenne de 4 mtres en matine et continue de sintensifier, elle dferle de St Philippe au Cap La Houssaye. Laprs-midi les valeurs sont proches de 5 6 mtres. Les vagues les plus hautes peuvent atteindre 10 mtres.

Dumile will pass closer to the meeting tomorrow afternoon” clicanoo.re

React
Clicanoo.Re
published January 2, 2013
19 h 01

Dumile will pass closer to the meeting tomorrow afternoon

“Dumile moved closer to a train of hell of the meeting. “The Meteor embarked on its path and should not deviate in the next 24 hours,” says weather France. Passing it to the closest to our side should take place in the afternoon. In the meantime, the system should still strengthen to pass to the stage of tropical cyclone.

“The time will degrade in early in the day. The winds will gradually on the northern region, on the wild South as well as in the upper”, be indicates weather France.

At 19 hours, the strong tropical storm Dumile was 420 kilometres north of Runion (Southern 17.1 / 34.2 is). She always go in the direction of the south southwest at a speed of 24 km/h.

France weather forecast for tonight:

The sky is covered with rain. East wind turns northeast reinforcing with gusts that around 130 km/h on exposed ridges, they are of the order of 100 to 110 km/h on the sides.

The swell of 3 meters in average height Northeast sweeping the art de La Table Cap La Houssaye, the highest waves can reach 6 metres.

France weather forecast for tomorrow:

At sunrise of the day, the degradation of the time gradually intensifies throughout the Department.

The sky is low and covered with heavy rain on the North, East and Northwest regions. The sky is also loaded, but the rain is a little less intense in the morning.

Northeast wind strengthens with values that reach 150 km/h in the afternoon. on the areas exposed to the wind. The sea is large to very large, locally huge on the side exposed to the wind.

Swell Northeast reaches an height average of 4 meters in the morning and continues to increase, it swept St Philippe at Cap La Houssaye. The afternoon values are close to 5-6 metres. The highest waves can reach 10 m.” clicanoo.re

Malaria oubreak in Madagascar kills 7, hospitalises 60

A particularly severe outbreak of malaria in Madagascar has killed seven people since the beginning of the month and has left 60 others in need of hospitalisation, the country’s health minister said on Thursday.

Madagascar has seen an increase in the number of malaria cases in the first months of 2012 when compared with the previous year, government officials say.

Local doctors say the increase is likely a result of changing climate conditions, which have made the region more hospitable to the insects which carry the disease.

Moreover, the country suffered a coup in 2009 and Madagascar has been in a political stalemate ever since, despite regional efforts to reach an agreement between the military-backed rulers and the old regime now in exile

The stalemate has caused foreign donors to back away from the country, which is also experiencing an economic decline as a result of the political situation.

At the same time, its government is becoming less capable of delivering basic health services.The outbreak has hit the south of the world’s fourth largest island, located off southern Africa in the Indian Ocean.

Health Minister Johanita Ndahimananjara said there were enough supplies of medicine to care for the ill, but stressed that early detection and treatment were crucial to preventing the disease from causing the patient to die.

Malaria, a mosquito-borne parasitic disease that can be fatal, ravages many developing countries.Aid groups often hand out mosquito nets to help prevent people from getting bitten and contracting the disease. Owing to the poverty in Madagascar, many people depend on the hand-outs as they cannot afford to buy nets on their own.

Thursday, 10 May, 2012 at 14:09 (02:09 PM) UTC RSOE