Rodrigues /Mauritius /LaReunion /Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone #Eleven (11S) 082100Z position nr 15.2S 69.8E, moving W 05kt (JTWC) – Published 08 Mar 2017 2100z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Eleven (11S)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 15.2S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 70.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 15.3S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 15.8S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 16.9S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 18.7S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 21.8S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 14 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 24.8S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 28.2S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 69.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR)
AND A 081732Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. THE PREVIOUSLY FRAGMENTED CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND
CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE LLCC OVER THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 081732Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWING THE TIGHT LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM OF T2.5-3.0 FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH A SMALL BUT DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER
THE SYSTEM, ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). SSTS ALSO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION WITH TEMPS
OBSERVED NEAR 30C. SINCE THE SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AT
THIS TIME, THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE IS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTH, STEERING TC 11S SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE TIME
BEING. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF TC 09S ARE CURRENTLY
PROVIDING SOME PRESSURE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
DISPLACING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OFF THE LLCC, AND
LIMITING POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. AS UPPER-
LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS REESTABLISHED BEYOND TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY AT
TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC11S WILL
TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, THEN TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWEST AS IT
STRENGTHENS AND THE STEERING SHIFTS TO A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE
TO THE EAST. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FOREWORD MOTION AFTER
TAU 36 DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE SYSTEM TO THE EAST.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE TRACK, WITH SOME INITIAL DISAGREEMENT OF
THE TIMING OF THE TURN SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS 14 FEET. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

=============================================================================

WTIO31 FMEE 081914
RSMC / CENTER OF LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONES
ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING CYCLONE (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) NEWSLETTER
0.A NEWSLETTER: 9/7/20162017
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7
2.A POSITION HAS 1800 UTC ON 03/08/2017:
WITHIN A RADIUS OF 20 MINUTES AROUND THE POINT 15.2 S / 70.0 E
(SIXTY TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DEGREES ZERO‘S)
DISPLACEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A WIND MAX (MEDIUM/10 MIN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RVM): VOID
6.A WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM) EXTENSION:
28 KT ONLY: 0 SE: 200 SO: 190 NO.: 0
7.A SIDE/DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION PORTRAIT OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION: AVERAGE
1.B FORECASTS:
12 H: 03/09/2017 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 68.3 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
24: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 67.8 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
36H: 10 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 67.7 E WIND MAX = 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 10 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 19.5 S / 66.1 E WIND MAX = 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 11 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 63.1 E WIND MAX = 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 11 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.1 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
2.B TREND FURTHER:
96H: 12 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 25.4 S / 54.7 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
120H: 13 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 29.4 S / 54.4 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, POSTTROPICALE DEPRESSION
2.C COMMENTS:
T = 2.5, CI = 2.5
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS GENERALLY IMPROVING BUT IT IS
A VERY RECENT. THE N18 1416Z WATCH AGAIN PASS A CENTER EXPOSES A
WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, AND IT IS SINCE SHORTLY BEFORE 17Z ONLY ONE
BURST OF CONVECTION TAKES PLACE VERY NEAR THE CENTER. THE ASCAT PASS OF THE
EVENING CONFIRMS INTENSITY ANALYZED. IF THIS TREND IS CONSOLIDATING
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SMALL
WINDOW OF FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY
THE MINIMUM SE MOVED SLOWLY IN THE WEST BRANCH UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW/MEDIUM RIDGE
TROPOSPHERE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH EAST OF THE BASIN. TOMORROW NIGHT, THE
MODELS AVAILABLE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO PREDICT A TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTH BUT WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES, WHICH CAUSES A
UNCERTAINTY AVERAGE WELL REPORTED BY THE DISPERSION OF THE FORECAST
OVERVIEW OF THE CEP. THIS WEEKEND, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER HIS
PATH ON THE SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHWEST AND
SPEED UP BYPASSING THIS RIDGE.
THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM MAKES IT PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE HAS ITS
ENVIRONMENT, INCLUDING ALTITUDE, WHICH MAKES FORECASTING
HARD INTENSITY. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT, THE ASCENT OF A THALWEG
ALTITUDE FROM THE MIDDLE LATITUDES (WAVE SURGE OF)
ROSSBY) CAUSES THE APPEARANCE OF A SECTOR MODERATE CONSTRAINT
NORTH. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL DATA, MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICK OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALLOW IT TO LIMIT ITS
WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVOURABLE, WITHOUT WEAKENING
INFLUENCE ON BAROCLINIC NET DYNAMICS OF ALTITUDE. IN THE PROCESS OF
WEEKEND WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE THALWEG OF ALTITUDE AND MAINTAINING
A GREAT DIFFERENCE POLAR, THE SYSTEM COULD BE

REINTENSIFIER.

WTIO31 FMEE 081914
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/7/20162017
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 7
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/03/2017 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 70.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 4 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 200 SO: 190 NO: 0
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/03/2017 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
24H: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
36H: 10/03/2017 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
48H: 10/03/2017 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
60H: 11/03/2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
72H: 11/03/2017 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2017 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
120H: 13/03/2017 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=2.5 CI=2.5
LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE EST GLOBALEMENT EN AMELIORATION MAIS C’EST
TRES RECENT. LA PASS N18 DE 1416Z MONTRE ENCORE UN CENTRE EXPOSE A
L’OUEST DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE, ET C’EST DEPUIS PEU AVANT 17Z QU’UN
BURST DE CONVECTION A LIEU TRES PRES DU CENTRE. LA PASS ASCAT DE LA
SOIREE CONFIRME L’INTENSITE ANALYSEE. SI CETTE TENDANCE SE CONSOLIDE
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT PROFITER DE LA PETITE
FENETRE DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES POUR S’INTENSIFIER PLUS
SIGNIFICATIVEMENT
LE MINIMUM SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L’OUEST SOUS
L’INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSES/MOYENNES
TROPOSPHERE SITUEE SUR LA PARTIE SUD-EST DU BASSIN. DEMAIN SOIR, LES
MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT EN BON ACCORD POUR PREVOIR UN VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD MAIS AVEC DES DIFFERENCES DE TIMING, CE QUI PROVOQUE UNE
INCERTITUDE MOYENNE BIEN BALISEE PAR LA DISPERSION DE LA PREVISION
D’ENSEMBLE DU CEP. CE WEEK-END, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA
TRAJECTOIRE SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET
ACCELERER EN CONTOURNANT CETTE DORSALE.
LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME LE REND PARTICULIEREMENT SENSIBLE A SON
ENVIRONNEMENT, NOTAMMENT EN ALTITUDE, CE QUI REND LA PREVISION
D’INTENSITE DIFFICILE. A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR, LA REMONTEE D’UN THALWEG
D’ALTITUDE DEPUIS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES (DEFERLEMENT D’ONDE DE
ROSSBY) PROVOQUE L’APPARITION D’UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE SECTEUR
NORD. SELON LES DERNIERES DONNEES MODELES, LE DEPLACEMENT
RELATIVEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE LIMITER SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT AU SEIN DE CET ENVIRONNEMENT MOINS FAVORABLE, SANS
INFLUENCE BAROCLINE NETTE DE LA DYNAMIQUE D’ALTITUDE. EN COURS DE
WEEK-END, AVEC LA DISSIPATION DU THALWEG D’ALTITUDE ET LE MAINTIEN
D’UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE POLAIRE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT SE
REINTENSIFIER.

===========================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 24/1 March 08 2017 – 18:39:19 UTC
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 24/2 March 08 2017 – 18:35:46 UTC
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 24/3 March 08 2017 – 12:32:19 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST March 08 2017 – 17:44:07 UTC
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST March 08 2017 – 12:44:02 UTC

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Mauritius/La Reunion: Tropical Storm CHEDZA 06S 181200Z: 22.9 S / 52.3 E, moving SE 8 at knots(RSMC La Réunion) – Updated 180115 1520z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL STORM CHEDZA 06

….. HEAVY RAIN OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS. – RSMC LA REUNION 2015/01/18 AT 1200 UTC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

chedza_sat

RSMC LA REUNION

chedza trajectoire

chedza sat anim

Bulletin Réunion
JOURNEE DU DIMANCHE 18

La Tempête tropicale CHEDZA était située à 16h à 360km a l Ouest-Sud-ouest des côtes réunionnaises et se déplace vers le sud-est à 15km/h.

Vigilance houle cyclonique d’ouest de 2.5m à 3 m sur les cotes Ouest et Sud en cours.

Flux de Nord-Nord-Ouest humide.
NUIT DU DIMANCHE 18 AU LUNDI 19
Les précipitions deviennent éparses sur l Est en début de nuit pour devenir plus fréquentes dans le Nord de l’île approximativement de St Leu à St Benoit en passant par le chef lieu en seconde partie de nuit .

Le vent de secteur Nord reste soutenu plus particulièrement sur les façades Nord-Ouest et Est ( 60 à 70km/h) et dans les hauts de la Réunion avec des rafales pouvant atteindre les 80 à 90 Km/h
LUNDI 19
Pris dans le flux de Nord-Nord-Ouest des averses sont possibles en début de journée sur la façade Ouest et Nord, ailleurs comme dans le sud sauvage le ciel est plus clément avec de belles éclaircies.

Au fil des heures l’instabilité se réactive et les nuages se développent dans l’intérieur.

Ces deniers débordent ensuite sur le sud sauvage où des averses sont alors attendues.

Le vent reste soutenue il souffle principalement sur les côtes Ouest et Est avec des rafales de 70 à 80km/h. Sur les hauteurs exposées, les rafales sont proches de 80 km/h.

La mer est agitée à forte au vent, une vigilance houle cyclonique d’Ouest est en cours de Champs-Borne à la Pointe de la Table en passant par St Leu, houle comprise entre 2. et 2.5 mètres soit 5 m pour les hauteurs maximales . Une houle de Sud-Est de 2.5 à 3 est egalement de mise sur les cotes Est et Sud .
MARDI 20
Poussées par un vent d’Ouest, quelques averses sont possibles en début de journée sur la façade Ouest, ailleurs c’est globalement du soleil. Au fil des heures, les nuages se développent dans

l’intérieure de l’ile et des débordement nuageux concernent le sud de la Réunion ou quelques averses peuvent se produire

Vent d ouest modéré avec des rafales sur les cote Sud-Ouest.

houle de Sud Ouest de 2 a 2.5M de la Pointe de Aigrette à la Pointe de la Table.
MERCREDI 21
Belle journée, la masse d’air s’assèche le soleil l’emporte. les développement nuageux de l apres-midi restent limites.

vent de Sud-Ouest faible à modéré le matin, tournant Sud en fin de journée.

Houle d ouest sud ouest de 2 à 2.5m

Reunion Bulletin
DAY SUNDAY 18

Tropical Storm CHEDZA was located at 16h to al 360km west-south-west coast of Reunion and moves southeast at 15km / h.

Vigilance westerly cyclonic swell from 2.5m to 3m on South West Coasts and in progress.

RSS wet North-West.

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY 18 19

The rush become scattered over the East early night in order to become more common in the north of the island approximately St Leu in St Benoit through the main town in the second part of the night.

North wind sector remains particularly strong on Northwest and east facades (60 to 70km / h) and the heights of the Meeting with gusts to 80 to 90 km / h

Monday 19

Caught in the flow of North-West showers are possible early in the day on the west facade and north as elsewhere in the wild south the sky is partly cloudy skies with.

As the hours instability reactivates and clouds develop in the interior.

These funds then spill over into the wild south, where rainfall is then expected.

The wind remains strong it blows mainly on the west and east coast with gusts of 70 to 80 km / h. On the exposed heights, the bursts are near 80 km / h.

The sea is rough with strong wind, vigilance cyclone swell West is being Champs Terminal Point Table via St Leu, swell between 2 and 2.5 m or 5 m for the maximum heights . A Southeast swell from 2.5 to 3 is also placing on the east and south coasts.

Tuesday 20

Driven by a west wind, some rain showers are possible early in the day on the west facade, it is also generally the sun. The hours, the clouds develop in

interior of the island and cloudy infinity concern southern Meeting or a few showers may occur

West of moderate wind with gusts on the South West Coast.

Southwest swell 2 to 2.5M of Pointe Heron Pointe de la Table.

Wednesday 21

Beautiful day, the mass of air dries the sun wins. development of cloudy after noon are limits.

Southwest winds weak to moderate in the morning, turning south in the afternoon.

Houle southwest of West 2 to 2.5m

Bulletin du 18 JANVIER à 16H45 locales:
Il n’y a pas d’alerte en cours à La Réunion, et aucune menace cyclonique n’est envisagée pour les
prochaines 72 heures.
**************************************************
Nature des systèmes dépressionnaires tropicaux présents sur le Sud-Ouest de l’Océan Indien.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE EX-BANSI.
Pression estimée au centre: 960 HPA.
Position le 18 janvier à 16 heures locales: 25.8 Sud / 78.3 Est.
(vingt cinq degres huit sud et soixante dix-huit degres trois est).
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 2340 km au secteur: EST-SUD-EST.
Déplacement: EST-SUD-EST, à 46 km/h.
Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 19/01 à 16h locales, par 33.0 Sud / 90.9 Est.
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 20/01 à 16h locales, par 38.1 Sud / 104.1 Est.
————————————————-
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CHEDZA.
Pression estimée au centre: 982 HPA.
Position le 18 janvier à 16 heures locales: 22.9 Sud / 52.3 Est.
(vingt deux degres neuf sud et cinquante deux degres trois est).
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 360 km au secteur: OUEST-SUD-OUEST.
Déplacement: SUD-EST, à 15 km/h.
Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 19/01 à 16h locales, par 25.3 Sud / 53.1 Est.
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,
Centre positionné le 20/01 à 16h locales, par 27.8 Sud / 54.6 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 21/01 à 16h locales, par 30.6 Sud / 57.9 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 22/01 à 16h locales, par 35.4 Sud / 63.1 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 23/01 à 16h locales, par 45.5 Sud / 78.5 Est.
————————————————-
Attention: Les prévisions de trajectoire et d’intensité précédentes sont à considérer avec la plus
grande prudence compte tenu de leur incertitude. Elles ne concernent que la position du centre du
phénomène, sans considération sur son extension.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Prochain bulletin vers 23h local

Bulletin January 18 at 4:45 p.m. local:
There is no current alert Reunion, and no hurricane threat is considered for
next 72 hours.
**************************************************
Nature of tropical storm systems present on the southwestern Indian Ocean.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-BANSI.
Estimated central pressure 960 HPA.
Position on 18 January at 16 am local time 25.8 South / 78.3 East.
(twenty five eight degrees south and seventy-eight degrees is three).
Distance from Reunion coast: 2340 km to the sector: EAST SOUTHEAST.
Displacement: EAST SOUTHEAST, 46 km / h.
Here are the intensities and positions provided this low pressure system over the next few days:
EXTRATROPICAL,
Center positioned 19/01 at 16h local by 33.0 South / 90.9 East.
EXTRATROPICAL,
Center positioned 20/01 at 16h local by 38.1 South / 104.1 East.
————————————————-
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CHEDZA.
Estimated central pressure 982 HPA.
Position on 18 January at 16 am local time: 22.9 South / 52.3 East.
(twenty two nine degrees fifty-two degrees south and three east).
Distance from Reunion coast 360 km sector: WEST-SOUTHWEST.
Displacement: SOUTHEAST 15 km / h.
Here are the intensities and positions provided this low pressure system over the next few days:
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM,
Center positioned 19/01 at 16h local by 25.3 South / 53.1 East.
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,
Center positioned 20/01 at 16h local by 27.8 South / 54.6 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned 21/01 at 16h local by 30.6 South / 57.9 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned 22/01 at 16h local by 35.4 South / 63.1 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Centre positioned on 23/01 at 16h local by 45.5 South / 78.5 East.
————————————————-
Warning: The forecast path and previous intensity should be treated with the most
caution because of their uncertainty. They are for the center position
phenomenon, regardless of its extension.
This newsletter is now complete.
Next newsletter to 23h local

ZCZC 453
WTIO30 FMEE 181306

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/6/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (CHEDZA)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9 S / 52.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 350 SW: 190 NW: 170
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/19 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/01/19 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/01/20 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/01/20 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 54.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/01/21 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/01/21 12 UTC: 30.6 S / 57.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/22 12 UTC: 35.4 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/01/23 12 UTC: 45.5 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CURRENT PATTERN LOOKS UNCONVENTIONAL AND MENTIONED INTENSITY IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK TECHNIQ
UE THAT IS NOT ADAPTED ANY-MORE FOR THIS KIND OF SYSTEM.
DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE IN THE CONVERGENCE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIG
H PRESSURES.
IN THE WAKE OF CHEZA, IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, OUTER PERIPHERAL BANDS EXIST AND OCCUR LOCALLY H
EAVY RAIN OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS.
CHEDZA KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARDS TOWARDS A TRANSIENT MID
-LEVEL TROUGH.
ON THIS PATH, FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY WINDSHEAR IS LOW TO MODER
ATE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD ALLOW SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION.
FROM TUESDAY, THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS LIKELY TO LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, THE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE AND THE SYSTEM COULD
BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

No warning

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA7 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 181240

WTIO22 FMEE 181240
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2015
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/01/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-BANSI) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8 S / 78.3 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 25 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO
400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 180 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 430 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 250
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 620 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 710 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/01/19 AT 00 UTC:
29.1 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2015/01/19 AT 12 UTC:
33.0 S / 90.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

There are other warnings at

METAREA VII

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Indian Ocean: Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi 05S 161200Z POSITION nr 21.6 S / 66.4 E, moving SE 16 knots ((RSMC La Réunion) – Updated 160115 1453z (GMT/UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi 05S

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

si201505_5day

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC LA REUNION

Bansi

KML Google Earth

WTIO31 FMEE 161237
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/5/20142015
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/01/2015 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 16 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/6.5/W 1.0/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 926 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :48 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 720 SE: 780 SO: 640 NO: 560
34 KT NE: 460 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 370
48 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 220
64 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 150
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 17/01/2015 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE
24H: 17/01/2015 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
36H: 18/01/2015 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
48H: 18/01/2015 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
60H: 19/01/2015 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
72H: 19/01/2015 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2015 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 95.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
120H: 21/01/2015 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 100.4 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5+ ET CI=6.5+
LA SIGNATURE DVORAK S’EST DEGRADEE DEPUIS LES DERNIERES 6 HEURES AVEC
UN OEIL DE PLUS DE 45 MN DE DIAMETRE. L’IMAGE MICRO-ONDE F15 DE 1026Z
MONTRE UNE EROSION DU MUR DE L’OEIL COTE OUEST. EN CONSEQUENCE MEME
SI LE CI DVORAK EST A 6.5+, L’INTENSITE DU VENT MAX A ETE RETROGRADEE A 110
KT POUR TENIR COMPTE DE CES ELEMENTS. BANSI CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER
REGULIEREMENT ET RAPIDEMENT SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-EST.
BANSI DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L’EST-SUD-EST DANS LE
COURANT DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE. DANS LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU PLONGER VERS LE SUD-EST.
SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME PASSE MAINTENANT AU SUD DE LA
DORSALE D’ALTITUDE ET UN TALWEG DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SE RAPPROCHE
PAR LE SUD-OUEST. PAR CONSEQUENT LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE
SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT AUGMENTER PROGRESSIVEMENT ET EN RAISON DE LA
BAISSE DU POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE SUR SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS 25S, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT COMMENCER A ACQUERIR DES CARACTERISTIQUES HYBRIDES POST-
TROPICALES DIMANCHE, PUIS EXTRATROPICALES A PARTIR DE LUNDI OU MARDI.
JUSQUE MARDI, LES VENTS NE VONT S’ATTENUER QUE LENTEMENT AU SEIN DE LA
CIRCULATION. MERCREDI LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE COMBLER RAPIDEMENT

ZCZC 570
WTIO30 FMEE 161237
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/5/20142015
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 16 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.5/W 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 926 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :48 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 720 SE: 780 SW: 640 NW: 560
34 KT NE: 460 SE: 500 SW: 500 NW: 370
48 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SW: 300 NW: 220
64 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/17 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2015/01/17 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2015/01/18 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 73.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2015/01/18 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/01/19 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/01/19 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 87.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/20 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 95.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2015/01/21 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 100.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5+ AND CI=6.5+
THE DVORAK SIGNATURE HAS DEGRADED FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH AN EYE
DIAMETER MORE LARGE THAN 45 NM. 1026Z F15 MW PICTURE SHOWS AN ERODED
EYE-WALL WESTWARD. CONSEQUENTLY, CI IS AT 6.5+ DUE TO DVORAK
CONSTRAINT, BUT INTENSITY OF THE MAXIMUM WIND HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED AT
110 KT. BANSI CONTINUES TO MOVE REGULARLY AND RAPIDLY ON A
SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK.
TONIGHT BANSI IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE ON TRACKING EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD.
WITHIN THE NIGHT BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
AGAIN SOUTH-EASTWARD.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD COME CLOSER TO THE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR IS
CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE AND IN RELATIONSHIP
WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENTS NEAR 25S, BANSI IS LIKELY TO BECOME
A POST-TROPICAL HYBRID SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY, THEN EXTRA-TROPICAL FROM
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
UNTIL TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FILL UP RAPIDLY.=
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh0515

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/05S_160530sams.jpg

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 20.0S 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 65.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 22.0S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 23.4S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 24.4S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 20 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z — 25.6S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 31.6S 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 65.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) INDICATES TC BANSI HAS RE-STRENGTHENED AS THE EYE HAS
CONTRACTED DOWN TO 32NM AS THE CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
EYE HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRIC AND DEFINED. HOWEVER, A 160442Z AMSU-
B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE EYE WALL STRUCTURE IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE REMAINS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE EYE OBSERVED IN THE MSI ANIMATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 130 KNOTS BASED ON THE CONTRACTION OF THE EYE AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS FROM PGTW, FMEE AND FIMP
WHILE KNES INCREASED TO 140 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL FAVORABLE AS WIDELY DIVERGENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OFFSETS THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESSING ON THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. TC 05S
IS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE POLEWARD PERIPHERY OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR TAU 36, WHICH WILL
ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING PROCESS WHICH WILL BE ACCELERATED BY TAU 36
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC 05S IS
EXPECTED TO BE FULLY ENVELOPED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 72
WHICH WILL COMPLETE ETT. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 162100Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR logoTropical Storm Risk

See:

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/201505S.html

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA8S / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 151223

WTIO20 FMEE 161228
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2015
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 16/01/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI) 926 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 200 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 300
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 345 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 390 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 420 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/01/17 AT 00 UTC:
23.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2015/01/17 AT 12 UTC:
24.0 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

There are other warnings at

METAREA VIII_S

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La Reunion/ Mauritius/ Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone 06S BEJISA 032100Z nr 24.2S 54.9E, moving SW at 5 knots (JTWC) – 030114 2310z

Tropical Cyclone Bejisa

 

= Tropical Storm strength (below Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 

(Please note time stamps on images/text)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

 

(Image: meteo.fr) La Reunion Radar

 

ZCZC 171
WTIO30 FMEE 031757
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/4/20132014
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (BEJISA)
2.A POSITION 2014/01/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 410 SW: 370 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/04 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2014/01/04 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/01/05 06 UTC: 28.5 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2014/01/05 18 UTC: 31.9 S / 47.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2014/01/06 06 UTC: 34.4 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2014/01/06 18 UTC: 36.2 S / 44.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.5
UNDER THE STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT AND OVER MARGINAL AND LOWERING OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT (SST BETWEEN 26.0 DG AND 26.5 DG).
BEJISA IS NOW TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PR
ESSURES IN THE LOW AND MID LAYERS. IT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE CLEARLY ON SUNDAY.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM COULD KEEP ON UNDERGOING THE WESTERLY TO NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER L
EVEL WIND-SHEAR ALOFT OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. THIS WIND-SHEAR WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT DUE THE CHANGE OF DIRECTION OF THE TRACK.
ON SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM MAY STAY LOCATED TEMPORARILY UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AND
THEN THE WEAKENING MAY BE LESS RAPID. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD BE AGAIN MORE RAPID ON SUNDAY WITH TH
E STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION FROM SUNDAY AND FILL UP MONDAY OR TUESDAY FAR AW
AY IN THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.
NNNN

Prvisions pour La Runion du Vendredi 03/01/14 17 h, valable pour la nuit prochaine et la journe du Samedi 04/01/14

 

Situation gnrale:

La Runion est en Phase de Sauvegarde.
Le flux s’oriente au secteur Nord-Ouest en faiblissant progressivement.
Pour information: La forte tempte tropicale BEJISA se situait 16 heures 240 km au secteur Sud de La Runion.

 

Prvisions pour la nuit prochaine:

La situation mtorologique se calme progressivement. Le ciel sera moins nuageux et les prcipitations vont continuer s’attnuer. Elles devraient se limiter l’ouest d’une ligne situe de St Joseph Ste Suzanne au cours de la nuit prochaine.

Le vent continue de faiblir. Il reste toutefois modr sur les rgion Est et Sud-Ouest de l’le avec des rafales de l’ordre de 60 km/h environ. Il souffle aussi sur St Denis et sur Petite Ile.

Prvisions pour le Samedi 04/01/14

Quelques averses sont encore attendues au lever du jour de St Gilles Ste Marie puis la situation s’arrange sur l’ensemble du dpartement. Les claircies sont plus gnreuses et les priodes ensoleilles plus nombreuses au cours de la matine, aussi bien sur les plaines, dans les cirques que sur les plages.

Au cours de l’aprs-midi, la grisaille s’installe sur le relief avec des prcipitations localement modres au sud d’une ligne allant de St Benoit St Leu. Le long du littoral, alternance d’claircies et de passages nuageux.

Le vent souffle du Nord-Ouest avec des rafales atteignant 50 55 km/h de La Possession Ste Suzanne et de Petite Ile Grand Bois. Ailleurs, les brises prdominent.

La mer est agite forte. Une houle de Sud-Sud-Ouest de 2m50 3m gnre par la Forte Tempte Tropicale BEJISA dferle sur les ctes Ouest et Sud de la Runion. Elle faiblit en fin de journe.

La plus grande prudence est recommande sur le littoral Ouest et Sud en raison de la houle.

 

Horaires des mares La Pointe des Galets le Samedi 04/01/14:

Basse : 09:31 et 21:58

Haute : 03:38 et 15:34

Cyclone Warning Bulletin Mauritius (English Version)

 

Thu, Jan 2, 2014

 

NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.
NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

 

ELEVENTH AND LAST CYCLONE BULLETIN ISSUED AT 20H00 ON THURSDAY 02
JANUARY 2014.

 

At 19h00 cyclone BEJISA was located near latitude 21.6 degrees south and longitude 55.0 degrees
east that is at about 275 km to the west south west of Le Morne. it is moving in a general south
easterly direction at about 14 km/h to eventually recurve towards the south.
On this trajectory BEJISA has started to move away from the region and hence no cyclonic conditions may occur over Mauritus.

 

NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

 

The showery weather will persist and will cause accumulation of water in some places. The
moisture in the lower atmosphere will maintain thick fog during the night and early morning.
The road users and the public at large are advised to be very cautious.
Wind will blow from the Northern sector with gusts of the order of 70 to 80 km/h in exposed places.
Sea will remain high with heavy swells and risks of beach inundation mainly to the Northern,
Western and Southern sectors. Ventures at sea are strictly forbidden.

 

NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.
NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0614.gif

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/06S_031730sair.jpg

 

WTXS32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
031800Z — NEAR 24.0S 55.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 220 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 55.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 24.7S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 26.2S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 28.2S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z — 30.2S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z — 34.0S 44.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 54.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING, YET TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031817Z METOP-A 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
ALSO WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR
ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS THE TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS
TC 06S ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) AND
INCREASING VWS. FURTHERMORE, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF COLDER SST
(LESS THAN 25 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND STRONGER VWS, WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN TC BEJISA. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BETWEEN
TAU 48 AND TAU 72. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z.//
NNNN

 

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 3 Jan, 2014 6:00 GMT

 

Tropical Cyclone BEJISA (06S) currently located near 23.1 S 55.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Reunion
probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently

 

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Storm Tracker Map

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

METAREA7 & 8S / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 1757

 

WTIO22 FMEE 031757
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/01/2014
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/01/2014 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (BEJISA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING
LOCALLY UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/01/04 AT 06 UTC:
24.8 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2014/01/04 AT 18 UTC:
26.2 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

RODRIGUES/ Mauritius/ LaRéunion: Tropical Cyclone/Storm Amara 222100Z nr 22.8S 68.1E, moving ESE at 6 knots (JTWC) – 221213 2250z

MODERATE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM/

Tropical Cyclone (02) Amara

 

= Tropical Storm (below Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 

MASCARENES ISLANDSMauritius, Runion and Rodrigues BEWARE!

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

 

ZCZC 096
WTIO30 FMEE 221911
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/2/20132014
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (AMARA)
2.A POSITION 2013/12/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6 S / 67.7 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :52 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SW: 370 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 120
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/12/23 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 68.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2013/12/23 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2013/12/24 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
48H: 2013/12/24 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
60H: 2013/12/25 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
72H: 2013/12/25 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/12/26 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 62.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
120H: 2013/12/27 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 60.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.5-
THE SYSTEM IS COMPLETELY DESTRUCTURED WITH THE CENTER TOTALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
DEEP CONVECTION. 1725Z ASCAT PATH CONFIRMS THIS INTENSITY AND SHOWS STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHER
N PART OF THE SYSTEM.
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AMARA SHOULD KEEP A SOUTH-EASTWARD OR EASTWARD TRACK IN RELATIONSHIP WIT
H A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING RAPIDLY UNDERGOING THE STRONG WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICA
L WIND-SHEAR.
FROM TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, THE WEAKENED SYSTEM SHOULD GO BACK WESTWARD WITH THE STEERING FLOW OF T
HE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDING SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS.
AS BRUCE SHOULD BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF AMARA AT THIS TIME, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINT
Y IN THE TIMING OF THIS RECURVING SCENARIO.
NNNN

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0314.gif

(Image: JTWC) TC Warning Graphic (Click image for source)

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03S_200530sams.jpg

(Image: JTWC) IR Satellite Imagery (Click image for source)

WTXS31 PGTW 222100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
221800Z — NEAR 22.8S 68.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 68.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 22.9S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 02 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z — 22.8S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 02 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 22.6S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 68.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 619 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO DEVOLVE AND THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM HAS SHEARED AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST BY OVER
50 NM. A 221513Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC HAS STARTED
TO ELONGATE AND THE CONVECTION HAS CONSIDERABLY SHALLOWED. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF
THE LLCC AND SOME AMBIGUITY IN THE IR ANIMATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS STRONG (30+ KNOTS)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSETTING ANY POSITIVE
EFFECTS OF SOME EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH AND WILL ACT TO SLOW TC
03S, LEADING TO QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
INCREASING VWS AND COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RAPIDLY DECAY THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, DISSIPATING
TC AMARA BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER
DISSIPATION, THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF TC 03S WILL TRACK BACK TO THE WEST UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL HIGH, ALTHOUGH, AT A VERY WEAKENED STATE.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE VARIATION IN THE EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND
232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

 

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 21 Dec, 2013 6:00 GMT

(No update for 22 Dec 2013)

 

 

 

Very Intense TC AMARA (03S) currently located near 20.1 S 64.2 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently

 

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Storm Tracker Map

TSR Storm Tracker Map

 

MARITIME

 

ZCZC 829
WTIO20 FMEE 220611
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/12/2013
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 22/12/2013 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (AMARA) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 66.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,
EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2013/12/22 AT 18 UTC:
22.2 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2013/12/23 AT 06 UTC:
22.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=
NNNN

Indian Ocean/ Rodrigues/ Mauritius: Tropical Depression 2 151800Z nr 14.0S 76.3E, moving W at 9 knots (RSMC La Reunion) – 151213 2010z

PLEASE SEE UPDATE >>>>>>>

RODRIGUES (Mauritius) Intense Tropical Cyclone Amara 200900Z nr 18.5S 65.0E, moving WSW at 6 knots (JTWC) 2012131625z

Mauritius flash flood: Further rain, floods expected after at least 10 drowned in Port Louis, 80+ injured. 152mm (6in) of rain fell in less than an hour- 010413 0000z

(Recovery of the 10th flood victim. Video credit: Jameel Peerally)

(Video above: Kurt Avish)

(Video credit: Binda Vivek)

At least 10 people have been killed in flash floods in Mauritius and more downpours could be on the way, officials and the Indian Ocean island’s meteorological service said on Sunday.

The deaths occurred on Saturday and most of the victims were trapped in an underpass leading to the Caudan Waterfront, a commercial area in Port Louis. Prime Minister Navinchandra Ramgoolam said on Sunday that Port Louis had a torrential downpour with 152 mm falling in two hours.

“The speed of the torrents of water has led to tragic loss of life and heavy damage to property,” he said, adding that he was declaring Monday a day of mourning.
The Mauritius meteorological service said showers were expected overnight and on Monday, with isolated thunderstorms that could cause further floods.
Sunday, 31 March, 2013 at 19:30 (07:30 PM) UTC RSOE

News Reports

Deadly floods hit Mauritius capital Port Louis

BBC NEWS 31 March 2013 Last updated at 19:59

Wrecked cars in Port Louis - 30 March The floods brought chaos to Port Louis city centre

At least 11 people have died after sudden rains caused flooding in the Mauritian capital Port Louis on Saturday, officials have said.

At least eight of the victims were caught in underground areas as the flood waters rose rapidly. Another died of a heart attack.

The island’s metereologists said 152mm (6in) of rain fell in less than an hour, 70mm less than the March average.

Prime Minister Navin Rangoolam declared 1 April a day of mourning.

Speaking on national radio, he said Mauritius was suffering badly from the effects of climate change.

Mauritius map

The floods caused chaos in the city, with a huge traffic jam paralysing its centre, L’Express de Maurice newspaper reported.

A BBC reporter in the city says the bodies of six people were recovered from a pedestrian subway and another two from an underground car park.

Resident Ameeksha Dichand told the BBC she had been unable to go outside because it was raining so heavily, though people did venture out on Sunday to inspect the damage.

“The roads are blocked and there is mud everywhere. Trees have fallen all over the place,” she said.

“If people couldn’t rely on their neighbours so much to help them, then we would have lost more lives. I am so angry at the authorities.”

More rain was expected on Sunday, and people were advised to stay at home.

Tropical Cyclone (07) #DUMILE 031500Z nr 22.6S 54.3E, moving S at 28 Km/h (RSMC La Reunion) – 030113 1700z

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0713.gif

RSMC La Reunion (SW Indian Ocean)

BULLETIN DU 03 JANVIER A 19H00 LOCALES:

PHASE DE SAUVEGARDE DES 20H LOCALES
**************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL MENACANT LA REUNION:

CYCLONE TROPICAL DUMILE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 972 HPA
POSITION LE 03 JANVIER A 19 HEURES LOCALES:
22.6 SUD / 54.3 EST
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES TROIS EST)

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES :
180 KM AU SECTEUR: SUD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD A 28 KM/H

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE
AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 04 16H PAR: 26.4 S / 54.8 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 05 16H PAR: 31.0 S / 60.5 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 06 16H PAR: 37.2 S / 71.5 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 07 16H PAR: 40.7 S / 78.8 E

DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 08 16 PAR: 40.2 S / 82.8 E

LES PROCHAINES PREVISIONS COMPLETES SUR CE SYSTEME SERONT ELABOREES DANS 3 HEURES.

————————————————-

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 22H30 LOCALES

Alertes cycloniques
Un cyclone approche
PR-ALERTE CYCLONIQUE ALERTE ORANGE ALERTE ROUGE
Menace potentielle
dans les jours venir
(au-del de 24 heures)
Danger dans
les 24 heures
Danger imminent
Tenez-vous inform Tenez-vous inform Tenez-vous inform
Suivez les prvisions
mtorologiques
et les bulletins dinformation
Tous les tablissements
scolaires et les crches
ferment,
mais lactivit
conomique continue
Le passage en alerte rouge
est annonc avec un
pravis de 3 heures
Ne pas entreprendre
de longues randonnes
en montagne
ou des sorties en mer
de plus de 24 heures
Rentrez les objets
que le vent peut emporter
Profitez de ce pravis pour
rejoindre votre domicile
ou vous mettre labri
Vrifiez vos rserves
(conserves, eau, piles pour radio
et lampes, mdicaments)
Rentrez vos animaux Pass ce dlai
NE SORTEZ EN AUCUN CAS
Si vous tes insuffisant rnal
ou respiratoire, rapprochez-vous
sans dlai de votre tablissement
de sant habituel
Protgez vos portes et
fentres
(volets, planches)
Ne tlphonez quen cas
dabsolue ncessit
Ne vous approchez pas
du rivage en cas de forte houle
Vrifiez vos rserves
(conserves, eau, piles,
mdicaments)
RESTEZ INFORM
Assurez-vous de connatre
ladresse et le tlphone
du centre dhbergement
le plus proche de votre domicile
Vrifiez ladresse
et le tlphone
du centre dhbergement
le plus proche
RESTEZ CALME
NE PANIQUEZ PAS
Notez les numros de tlphone
utiles:
15 SAMU,
18 Pompiers,
17 Police et Gendarmerie
Prparez une vacuation
ventuelle
Attendez la leve de
lalerte rouge pour sortir
et ne prenez votre vhicule
que si le rseau routier
est annonc praticable
APRS LE CYCLONE
PHASE DE SAUVEGARDE
RESTEZ TRS PRUDENT !
Ne franchissez pas les radiers submergs ou les ravines en crue.
Ne touchez pas les fils lectriques tombs terre.
Nencombrez pas les lignes tlphoniques.
Ne gnez pas les quipes de secours.
Attention la qualit de leau que vous buvez.
Prfrez leau en bouteille, ou traitez leau du robinet si vous devez la boire.
Assurez-vous que la circulation est autorise et ne prenez votre vhicule quen cas de ncessit.
Dclenche par le prfet aprs un cyclone, pendant ou aprs une vigilance mtorologique, la phase de sauvegarde peut sassortir dinterdictions de circuler, de la fermeture des coles, etc.
BULLETIN FROM 03 JANUARY TO LOCAL 7:00 p.m.:PHASE FOR THE PROTECTION OF LOCAL 20H
**************************************************

NATURE OF TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THREATENING THE MEETING:

TROPICAL CYCLONE Dumile

PRESSURE ESTIMATED CENTER: 972 HPA
POSITION ON 03 JANUARY TO 19 HOURS LOCAL:
SOUTH 22.6 / 54.3 IS
(TWENTY TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX FOUR THREE DEGREES EAST)

DISTANCE FROM COAST Reunion:
180 KM AREA: SOUTHWEST
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 28 KM / H

THE FOLLOWING POSITIONS AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS:

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM,
POSITIONING THE CENTRE TO 04 PER 16H: 26.4 S / 54.8 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICAL,
POSITIONING THE CENTRE TO 05 PER 16H: 31.0 S / 60.5 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICAL,
POSITIONING THE CENTRE TO 06 PER 16H: 37.2 S / 71.5 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICAL,
POSITIONING THE CENTRE TO 07 PER 16H: 40.7 S / 78.8 E

VACUUM FILLING UP,
CENTRE POSITIONS ON 08 TO 16 PER: 40.2 S / 82.8 E

FUTURE FORECASTS ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COMPLETED IN 3 HOURS WORKED.

————————————————-

THIS BULLETIN IS NOW COMPLETE.
NEXT BULLETIN LOCAL REGISTERED TO 10:30 p.m.

https://i0.wp.com/www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/tpsreel/trajectoire.png
(Image: usno.navy.mil) IR Satellite Imagery

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 3 Jan, 2013 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone DUMILE (07S) currently located near 20.3 S 54.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Reunion
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTXS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
030600Z — NEAR 20.3S 54.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 180 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 54.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z — 22.6S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 24.7S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 26.7S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 29.0S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z — 33.7S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 54.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DUMILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS CONTINUED TO
WEAKEN AND TC 07S HAS LOST ITS EYE. A 030501Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE BUT WEAK
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN EYEWALL AND THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 65 KNOTS, BASED UPON CONGRUENT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME INTENSITY FROM PGTW AND KNES, WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS TC 07S HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLIES TO
THE SOUTH BUT MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC
07S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO RECURVE AROUND THE STR AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD
AFTER TAU 24 AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 48
AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN 65 KNOTS
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) (26-28 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND THEN
SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING
VWS AND COOLER SST (LESS THAN 25C). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL
AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 030600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z.//
NNNN

Press Reports:

31 Dec 2012 (GMT/UTC):

Mto

La Runion a rendez-vous jeudi avec le cyclone Dumile

  • Clicanoo.re
  • publi le 31 dcembre 2012
  • 18h53

A peine effac les brumes du rveillon, il faudra sy prparer. Les conditions mtorologiques vont commencer se dgrader ds mercredi et jeudi. Et le cyclone tropical Dumile passera dans la matine au plus prs de nos ctes une distance qui reste dterminer.

Depuis que le cinquime systme de la saison a commenc tre suivi par le Centre des cyclones tropicaux de la Runion, le cne dincertitude, cernant 75% la trajectoire susceptible dtre suivie par le phnomne dans les cinq jours venir, na cess de se resserrer autour de notre le. A lorigine il stendait de la cte est de Madagascar jusquau del de Maurice. Depuis il na cess de se dcaler vers louest. Au point de 16h, le Centre des cyclones tropicaux envisageait un passage du centre du mtore sur la Runion dans la matine de jeudi.

A trois jours de lchance, la prvision nest bien videmment pas grave dans le marbre et demande encore tre affine. Mais quil passe louest, au dessus de notre le ou plus lest Dumile de part limportance de son dveloppement que rvle les photos satellites va immanquablement nous concerner. Il faut donc se prparer comme le rappelle le Centre des cyclones tropicaux. Il est important de ne pas se focaliser sur la position prvue prcise du centre du systme. Daprs les donnes de modles, il est probable que ce phnomne reste de taille suprieure la normale et gnre du temps dangereux sur une zone assez tendue. Les conditions mtorologiques devraient se dgrader bien avant le passage au plus prs du centre.

Cet aprs-midi 16h, le futur Dumile ntait encore quune dpression tropicale. Elle voluait 1 040 km au nord nord-est de nos ctes et se dplaait vers louest sud-ouest 11 km/h. Le cinquime systme de la saison, mais le quatrime susceptible dtre baptis, a dj trouv sur sa route Agalega survole par les masses nuageuses les plus actives du phnomne. 237 mm de pluie enregistre en 24h entre lundi 10h (heure de la Runion) et mardi 10h alors que la moyenne saisonnire (1971-2000) pour le mois de dcembre sur lle nest que 180.6mm.
Un chiffre consquent pour une petite le dont le niveau au-dessus de la mer ne dpasse pas trois mtres, indique le site Mto-Maurice.

Le systme devrait continuer sur une trajectoire oriente en direction gnrale du sud-ouest au cours des prochaines 24 heures, analyse 16h le Centre des cyclones tropicaux. Le phnomne devrait ensuite prendre une direction gnrale sud. Il devrait passer proximit ou sur les Mascareignes dans la matine de jeudi avant de svacuer vers les latitudes extratropicales. Les derniers modles disponibles prvoient un dplacement un peu plus rapide partir de mardi. Le passage au plus prs de la Runion a donc t avanc de presque six heures par rapport la prvision prcdente. En terme dintensit, le Centre des cyclones tropicaux maintient son analyse, lenvironnement mtorologique restant favorable lintensification. Cest donc bien au stade de cyclone tropical que Dumile devrait nous rendre visite jeudi.

Alain Dupuis clicanoo.re

Weather

Meeting the appointment Thursday with the cyclone Dumile

  • Clicanoo.re
  • published December 31, 2012
  • 6:53 p.m.

Just cleared the fog Eve, it will be prepared. Weather conditions will begin to deteriorate as early as Wednesday and Thursday. And tropical cyclone in the morning will Dumile closer to our shores at a distance to be determined.

Since the fifth season of the system began to be followed by the Tropical Cyclone Centre of the Meeting, the cone of uncertainty, identifying 75% of the trajectory may be followed by the phenomenon in the next five days, has continued to tighten around our island. Originally it extended from the east coast of Madagascar to Mauritius beyond. Since then he has continued to shift westward. Point 16h, the Tropical Cyclone Centre was considering a move to the center of the meteor in the meeting Thursday morning.

Three days before the deadline, the prediction is obviously not set in stone and needs to be further refined. But it goes to the west, above the island or to the east Dumile share the importance of its development shows that satellite photos will inevitably affect us. We must therefore prepare as recalled by the Centre of tropical cyclones. It is important not to focus on the precise position of the center of the planned system. According to the data model, it is likely that this phenomenon is larger than normal and generates dangerous times on a wide enough area. Weather conditions are expected to worsen before passing close to the center.

This afternoon at 16h, Dumile future was still a tropical depression. She moved to 1040 km north northeast of our coast and moved west southwest 11 km / h. system of the fifth season, but the fourth may be called, has already found its way Agalega overflown by cloud masses the most active phenomenon. 237 mm of rainfall recorded in 24 hours between Monday 10am (time of meeting) and Tuesday 10 am while the seasonal average (1971-2000) for the month of December on the island is only 180.6mm. Therefore a number for a small island with a level above the sea does not exceed three meters, says Maurice Weather website.

The system should continue on a course directed in the general direction southwest over the next 24 hours, the center 16h analysis of tropical cyclones. This phenomenon should then take a general southerly direction. It should pass near or over the Mascarene Islands in the Thursday morning before evacuating to extratropical latitudes. The latest models include moving a bit faster from Tuesday. The closest approach of the meeting has been advanced almost six hours compared to the previous forecast. In terms of intensity, Tropical Cyclone Centre maintains its analysis, the meteorological environment remains favorable for intensification. It is therefore in tropical cyclone that Dumile should we visit on Thursday.

Alain Dupuis clicanoo.re

02 Dec 2012:

Dumile passera au plus prs de la Runion demain aprs-midi

  • Clicanoo.re
  • publi le 2 janvier 2013
  • 19h01

“Dumile sest rapproch un train denfer de la Runion. “Le mtore est lanc sur sa trajectoire et ne devrait pas trop dvier au cours des 24 prochaines heures”, estime Mto France. Son passage au plus prs de nos ctes devrait avoir lieu dans laprs-midi. Dici l, le systme devrait encore se renforcer pour passer au stade de cyclone tropical.

“Le temps va se dgrader en dbut de journe. Les vents se renforceront progressivement sur la rgion nord, sur le sud sauvage ainsi que dans les hauts”, indique Mto France.

Au point de 19 heures, la forte tempte tropicale Dumile se trouvait 420 kilomtres au nord de La Runion (17.1 sud / 55.0 est). Elle fonce toujours en direction du sud sud-ouest la vitesse de 24 km/h.

Prvisions de Mto France pour cette nuit:

Le ciel reste couvert avec des pluies. Le vent de secteur Est soriente au Nord-Est en se renforant avec des rafales qui avoisinent 130 km/h sur les crtes exposes, elles restent de lordre de 100 110 km/h sur les ctes.

La houle de Nord-Est de 3 mtres en hauteur moyenne dferle de La Pointe de La Table au Cap La Houssaye, les vagues les plus hautes peuvent atteindre 6 mtres.

Prvisions de Mto France pour la journe de demain:

Au lever du jour, la dgradation du temps sintensifie progressivement sur lensemble du dpartement.

Le ciel est bas et couvert avec des pluies fortes sur les rgions du Nord, de lEst et du Nord-Ouest. Ailleurs, le ciel est aussi bien charg mais la pluie y est un peu moins intense le matin.

Le vent de Nord-Est se renforce avec des valeurs qui atteignent 150 km/h laprs-midi. sur les rgions exposes au vent. La mer est grosse trs grosse, localement norme sur les ctes exposes au vent.

La houle de Nord-Est atteind une hauteur moyenne de 4 mtres en matine et continue de sintensifier, elle dferle de St Philippe au Cap La Houssaye. Laprs-midi les valeurs sont proches de 5 6 mtres. Les vagues les plus hautes peuvent atteindre 10 mtres.

Dumile will pass closer to the meeting tomorrow afternoon” clicanoo.re

React
Clicanoo.Re
published January 2, 2013
19 h 01

Dumile will pass closer to the meeting tomorrow afternoon

“Dumile moved closer to a train of hell of the meeting. “The Meteor embarked on its path and should not deviate in the next 24 hours,” says weather France. Passing it to the closest to our side should take place in the afternoon. In the meantime, the system should still strengthen to pass to the stage of tropical cyclone.

“The time will degrade in early in the day. The winds will gradually on the northern region, on the wild South as well as in the upper”, be indicates weather France.

At 19 hours, the strong tropical storm Dumile was 420 kilometres north of Runion (Southern 17.1 / 34.2 is). She always go in the direction of the south southwest at a speed of 24 km/h.

France weather forecast for tonight:

The sky is covered with rain. East wind turns northeast reinforcing with gusts that around 130 km/h on exposed ridges, they are of the order of 100 to 110 km/h on the sides.

The swell of 3 meters in average height Northeast sweeping the art de La Table Cap La Houssaye, the highest waves can reach 6 metres.

France weather forecast for tomorrow:

At sunrise of the day, the degradation of the time gradually intensifies throughout the Department.

The sky is low and covered with heavy rain on the North, East and Northwest regions. The sky is also loaded, but the rain is a little less intense in the morning.

Northeast wind strengthens with values that reach 150 km/h in the afternoon. on the areas exposed to the wind. The sea is large to very large, locally huge on the side exposed to the wind.

Swell Northeast reaches an height average of 4 meters in the morning and continues to increase, it swept St Philippe at Cap La Houssaye. The afternoon values are close to 5-6 metres. The highest waves can reach 10 m.” clicanoo.re