Australia: Severe Tropical Cyclone CLAUDIA 07S Category 3 (Australian scale) 12/2100Z position nr 16.0S 117.9E, moving WSW 21kt (JTWC) – Updated 12 Jan 2020 2206Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone CLAUDIA 07S

Severe Tropical Cyclone Claudia, Category 3 (Australian scale) is expected to strengthen further during Monday and remain well offshore from mainland WA.

CLAUDIA is a CAT1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, expected to become CAT2 on the same scale by 13 Jan, 6:00 (TSR UCL London data)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 26 FEET – JTWC

JTWC Tropical Warnings

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Claudia) Warning #06
Issued at 12/2100Z

sh0720-1

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121800Z — NEAR 15.7S 118.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 250 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 118.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 16.7S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 17.6S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 18.4S 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 19.2S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z — 20.9S 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 22.4S 103.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 22.7S 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 117.9E.
12JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
240 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT BUT ASYMMETRIC DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC.
HOWEVER, MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN
BOTH THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 121831Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE, WHICH
SHOWS A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS
HEDGED ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65
KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE STRUCTURE SEEN IN
THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TC 07S IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, 25 TO 30 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THIS IS OFFSET BY THE FACT THAT
THE SHEAR AND STORM MOTION ARE IN-PHASE. TC 07S CONTINUES TO HAVE
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND AN IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
BETWEEN 29 AND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07S IS TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR WILL BE THE PRIMARY
STEERING FEATURE TROUGH TAU 96. FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY, TO NEAR RAPID, INTENSIFICATION
IN THE SHORT TERM. BEYOND TAU 24, TC 07S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXPERIENCES
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A SPREAD OF 116 NM. BY TAU 120, THE
SPREAD INCREASES TO 250 NM WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE THE OUTLIER TO THE
SOUTHEAST. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Claudia

Issued at 2:53 am AWST Monday 13 January 2020. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

idw60280-1

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Claudia, Category 3 is expected to strengthen further during Monday and remain well offshore from mainland WA.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Claudia at 2:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.7 degrees South, 118.9 degrees East , 435 kilometres northwest of Broome and 515 kilometres north of Port Hedland .
Movement: west southwest at 33 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Claudia continues to move over open waters to the northwest of the Kimberley. Claudia is expected to strengthen further during Monday and continue to track towards the west southwest and remain over open waters, well north of the Pilbara on Monday and Tuesday.

Hazards:

GALES and HEAVY RAINFALL are not expected over mainland Western Australia.

Strong winds are likely for coastal waters off the West Kimberley Coast [refer to Marine Wind Warning IDW20100]. Strong winds are likely to extend to coastal waters off the Pilbara coast on Monday and Tuesday.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 am January 13 3 15.7S 118.9E 35
+6hr 8 am January 13 3 16.2S 117.4E 70
+12hr 2 pm January 13 3 16.6S 116.0E 90
+18hr 8 pm January 13 3 17.0S 114.5E 115
+24hr 2 am January 14 3 17.4S 113.1E 135
+36hr 2 pm January 14 3 18.3S 110.8E 175
+48hr 2 am January 15 2 19.1S 108.9E 210
+60hr 2 pm January 15 1 19.9S 107.2E 245
+72hr 2 am January 16 1 20.8S 105.8E 280

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 am AWST Monday

 

 

Infrared image courtesy of the Japan Meteorological Agency. Blue Marble surface image courtesy of NASA.

IDY28000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Bureau National Operations Centre

Satellite Notes for the 1800UTC Chart
Issued at 6:19 am EDT Monday on 13 January 2020
Severe Tropical Cyclone Claudia, Category 3, is off the Pilbara coast and is
moving in a west-southwesterly direction. While the Monsoon Trough is triggering
thunderstorms near the Kimberley coast and across the NT Top End.

Areas of thunderstorms can be seen over central and northern Queensland and also
across the western parts of WA near surface troughs. While there is patchy high
cloud across much of central Australia.

Low cloud near the NSW and Queensland coast and adjacent ranges is due to a
southeasterly onshore airstream. While there is also some low cloud associated
with a weak cold front moving across the southern coastal fringe of WA.


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

No land warning
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

FQAU21 AMMC 110715
40:2:1:31:11:01:00
IDY10240
SECURITE

High Seas Forecast for Northern METAREA 8/10/11
NORTHERN AREA: COAST AT 125E TO 12S125E TO 12S90E TO 0S90E TO 0S142E TO COAST
AT 142E

Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
For 24 hours commencing 1100 UTC 11 January 2020

Please be aware
Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger
than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum
waves can be twice the forecast height.

Part 1 Warnings
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre Gale Warning.

Part 2 Situation at 0600 UTC
Refer to latest warnings for details of the area affected.

Monsoon Trough from 09S142E to Tropical Low 996hPa 12.8S127.5E to 15S125E.
Forecast 10S142E to Tropical Cyclone 986hPa near 14.3S121.7E at 121200UTC.

Part 3 Forecast
Refer to latest warnings.

Within area bounded by 07S104E 02S110E 03S137E 15S129E, outside warning area:
Westerly quarter winds, tending clockwise within 300nm of Tropical Low/Cyclone.
Wind speeds 15/25 knots, increasing to 25/33 knots within 240nm of Tropical
Low. Moderate to rough seas. Low swell, increasing to moderate south of 8S.

Remainder:
Variable winds below 20 knots with slight to moderate seas. Low swell
increasing to moderate south of 08S west from 120E.

Heavy rain, widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms within 240nm of
Tropical Low/Cyclone. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms within
120nm of Monsoon Trough. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
remainder. Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation.

WEATHER MELBOURNE

The next routine forecast will be issued at 19:15 UTC Saturday.

WOAU01 AMMC 111106
IDY21000
40:2:1:04:55S075E35060:01:00
SECURITE
High Seas Weather Warning for METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC
At 1106UTC 11 January 2020

GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AREA

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger
than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum
waves can be twice the forecast height.

SITUATION AT 1200UTC
Vigorous westerly flow.

AREA AFFECTED
Bounded by 44S096E 48S098E 46S115E 42S110E 44S096E.

FORECAST
Westerly quarter winds 30/40 knots west of 103E at first and then extending
throughout area by 111800UTC. Winds easing below 34 knots west of 100E by
111800UTC, west of 109E by 120000UTC and throughout area by 120300UTC. Rough to
very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell.

 

WOAU03 AMMC 111105
IDY21020
40:2:1:04:70S100E35060:01:00
SECURITE
High Seas Weather Warning for METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC
At 1105UTC 11 January 2020

GALE WARNING FOR SOUTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREA

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger
than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum
waves can be twice the forecast height.

SITUATION AT 1200UTC
Vigorous flow associated with a low 963hPa near 54S110E. Forecast low 955hPa
near 55S113E at 111800UTC, low 948hPa near 45S121E at 120000UTC, 29E 58S129E to
low 944hPa near 56S118E at 120600UTC and low 944hPa near 57S122E at 121200UTC.

AREA AFFECTED
Bounded by 43S112E 47S131E 62S135E 64S131E 64S119E 55S105E 48S108E 47S113E
43S112E.

FORECAST
Clockwise 34/47 knots within 360nm of low in all sectors except southeastern
sector, extending to within 660nm of low from 120600UTC. Very rough to high
seas. Moderate to heavy swell.

===========================================================================================================Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (WA): Severe Tropical Cyclone MARCUS (15S) 221500Z position nr 18.1S 106.2E, moving SSW 09kt (JTWC) – Updated 22 Mar 2018 1435z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone MARCUS

(Is a storm equivent to a CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus has begun to weaken well away from the WA mainland. It should continue to weaken as it moves further south – BoM

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 50 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 15S (Marcus) Warning #28
Issued at 22/1500Z

sh15184

15s_220600sair

Google Earth Overlay

 

WTXS32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
221200Z — NEAR 17.6S 106.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 106.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 19.8S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 22.4S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 24.9S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 26.8S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 30.4S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 106.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 522 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN 18 NM EYE WITH WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES ON THE WESTERN SIDE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 221139Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TC 15S IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 125 KNOTS, BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), DECENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS
(28C). TC 15S IS NOW TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 AS TC 15S WEAKENS DUE
TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER AROUND TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH TIGHT GROUPING BETWEEN SOLUTIONS,
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

bom_logo_clr

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus

Issued at 8:58 pm AWST Thursday 22 March 2018. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus has begun to weaken well away from the WA mainland. It should continue to weaken as it moves further south.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus at 8:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 5, sustained winds near the centre of 215 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 295 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 17.6 degrees South, 106.2 degrees East , 960 kilometres west northwest of Exmouth and 1120 kilometres northwest of Carnarvon .
Movement: south southwest at 20 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus has begun to weaken as it continues to move towards the south southwest, well away from the WA mainland. During Friday Marcus will move more southward as it continues weakening. Marcus is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity late Saturday, well off the west coast of WA.

Hazards:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus is well away from the WA mainland and is not expected to directly affect WA communities.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm March 22 5 17.6S 106.2E 30
+6hr 2 am March 23 4 18.7S 105.8E 50
+12hr 8 am March 23 4 19.8S 105.7E 70
+18hr 2 pm March 23 3 21.1S 105.7E 95
+24hr 8 pm March 23 3 22.4S 105.9E 120
+36hr 8 am March 24 2 24.8S 106.7E 155
+48hr 8 pm March 24 1 26.4S 107.2E 190
+60hr 8 am March 25 1 27.7S 107.5E 225
+72hr 8 pm March 25 tropical low 29.4S 108.7E 265

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Friday

 

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

 

 

Other

si201815_5day M 22 WUND

(Image: @underground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:3:2:24:18S106E999:11:00
PANPAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1247UTC 22 MARCH 2018

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus was centred within 15 nautical miles
of
latitude seventeen decimal six south (17.6S)
longitude one hundred and six decimal two east (106.2E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 115 knots
Central pressure: 928 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 115 knots near the centre easing to 75 knots by 1200 UTC 23
March.

Winds above 64 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre, contracting to within
30 nautical miles of centre by 1800 UTC 22 March with very high to phenomenal
seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 70 nautical miles of centre, contracting to within
50 nautical miles of centre by 1800 UTC 22 March with high seas and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in NW quadrant, with rough seas and moderate
to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 23 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 19.8 south 105.7 east
Central pressure 947 hPa.
Winds to 95 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 23 March: Within 65 nautical miles of 22.4 south 105.9 east
Central pressure 965 hPa.
Winds to 75 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 22 March 2018.

WEATHER PERTH
================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Australia (WA) : Tropical Cyclone KELVIN 10S 181500Z position nr 20.6S 122.5E, moving SSE ~5.9kt (BoM) – Updated 18 Feb 2018 1715z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone KELVIN (10S)

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin continues to weaken and is expected to weaken below cyclone strength on Monday morning. Very heavy rain and destructive winds with gusts to 150 km/h will ease over the next few hours – BoM

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 12 FEET – JTWC

 

bom_logo_clr

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin

Issued at 11:53 pm AWST Sunday 18 February 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 33.

KELVIN NZ TRACK 18

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin continues to weaken and is expected to weaken below cyclone strength on Monday morning. Very heavy rain and destructive winds with gusts to 150 km/h will ease over the next few hours.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Inland areas of the far eastern Pilbara, far northwest North Interior District and adjacent areas of the western Kimberley.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Kelvin at 11:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 20.6 degrees South, 122.5 degrees East , 125 kilometres north northeast of Telfer and 225 kilometres south southeast of Bidyadanga .
Movement: south southeast at 11 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin is weakening as it moves inland across the far east Pilbara as a category 2 tropical cyclone. Kelvin will weaken below cyclone strength during Monday morning as it continues to move inland and track towards the south southeast. Gales may persist in the eastern quadrants of the system till Tuesday morning.

Hazards:

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour and very heavy rainfall are likely to be occurring near the centre of the tropical cyclone in the far eastern Pilbara. DESTRUCTIVE winds will ease in the next few hours.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are likely over remaining parts of the far eastern Pilbara, far northwest North Interior District and adjacent areas of the western Kimberley. The area of GALES will move further inland, possibly as far as Telfer and Parnngurr early Monday morning if the system moves closer than expected. GALES should ease from Monday mid morning as the system weakens below tropical cyclone strength.

DAMAGING WINDS to 100 kilometres per hour may persist to the east of the system once it weakens below tropical cyclone intensity until Tuesday morning.

Heavy rainfall is likely to continue near the system over the far west Kimberley, far east Pilbara and western North Interior during Monday and Tuesday. Flood Watches and Warnings are current, please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details.

Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near Telfer and Punmu need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR: People in communities in coastal areas between Bidyadanga and Sandfire, including Sandfire are advised that wind and storm surge dangers have passed but you need to take care to avoid the dangers caused by damage.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 11 pm February 18 2 20.6S 122.5E 35
+6hr 5 am February 19 1 21.3S 122.7E 50
+12hr 11 am February 19 tropical low 22.1S 122.9E 70
+18hr 5 pm February 19 tropical low 22.9S 123.1E 95
+24hr 11 pm February 19 tropical low 23.8S 123.3E 120
+36hr 11 am February 20 tropical low 25.5S 123.6E 155
+48hr 11 pm February 20 tropical low 27.1S 124.2E 190
+60hr 11 am February 21 tropical low 28.9S 125.5E 230
+72hr 11 pm February 21 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Monday

ide00135-201802181530

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 10S (Kelvin) Warning #08 Final Warning
Issued at 18/0300Z

sh10182

10s_180000sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
180000Z — NEAR 19.2S 121.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 121.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 20.1S 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 21.4S 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 23.0S 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 24.7S 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 121.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CLOUD-FILLED EYE SURROUNDED BY A BROAD EYE WALL WITH DEEP
CONVECTION. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROOME REVEALS A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL INNER EYEWALL NOW POSITIONED OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON RADAR WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 172219Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ
COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CYAN RING SURROUNDING THE
EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE COMBINED WITH SUBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF EIR
IMAGERY, AND SUPPORTED BY A 171913Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 82 KNOTS AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TC 10S
WITH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER THE TOP OF TC 10S AS WELL. THIS
RESULTS IN A VERY FAVORABLE (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) VWS ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 10S IS NOW OVER LAND AND SO IS NO
LONGER SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE SSTS. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COMPETING STEERING RIDGES TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
FURTHER INLAND AND THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE ASSUMES STEERING. DESPITE
LAND INTERACTION, TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY THROUGH
TAU 12 AS IS COMMONLY SEEN IN THIS REGION. TC 10S WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TURNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STR TO THE EAST AND STEADILY DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated12

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 18 Feb, 2018 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Cyclone KELVIN is currently located near 19.2 S 121.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). KELVIN is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KELVIN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Lagrange (18.7 S, 121.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Anna Plains (19.3 S, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wallal Downs (19.8 S, 120.8 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Broome (18.0 S, 122.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Telfer (21.7 S, 122.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201810s2201810s_02

Current probability of Cat 1 or above wind at 18 Feb, 2018 0:00 GMT :

201810s_0g

Current probability of tropical storm winds at 18 Feb, 2018 0:00 GMT:

201810s_0f2

Other

si201810_5day2

(Image: @underground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WOAU01 AMMC 181157
IDY21000
40:3:1:04:55S075E35060:11:00
SECURITE
High Seas Weather Warning for METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC
At 1157UTC 18 February 2018

GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AREA

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION AT 1200UTC
Vigorous westerly flow developing from 182100UTC.

AREA AFFECTED
Bounded by 50S090E 50S080E 46S080E 47S086E 50S090E.

FORECAST
Westerly quarter winds 30/40 knots developing west of 083E by 182100UTC, and
extending throughout by 190600UTC. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate swell.
================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (WA): Tropical Cyclone JOYCE 05S 121800Z nr 20.7S 119.3E, moving SW 08kt (TCWC Perth) – Updated 12 Jan 2018 2145z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone JOYCE 05S

Australia: Tropical Cyclone Warning for Pardoo Roadhouse to De Grey, and inland parts of the northeast Pilbara including Marble Bar.

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Joyce

Issued at 2:44 am AWST Saturday 13 January 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 34.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Joyce is moving southwest, inland from the east Pilbara coast. Although Joyce will weaken this morning, heavy rain and gusty winds are likely to continue along its track over the weekend.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Pardoo Roadhouse to De Grey, and inland parts of the northeast Pilbara including Marble Bar..

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: Sandfire to Pardoo Roadhouse.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Joyce at 2:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 20.7 degrees South, 119.3 degrees East , 70 kilometres northwest of Marble Bar and 85 kilometres east southeast of Port Hedland .
Movement: southwest at 15 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Joyce should weaken this morning as it tracks to the southwest through the inland Pilbara.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 90 kilometres per hour are possible along the coast from Pardoo Roadhouse through to De Grey and to inland areas as far as Marble Bar for a period on Saturday morning.

Gusty winds and heavy rainfall are likely to continue near the track of the system over the weekend. Widespread daily rainfall totals of around 50 to 100 mm are expected, with isolated heavier falls of 100-250 mm possible near the system centre.

A Severe Weather Warning and Flood Watches and Warnings are current. Please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details.

Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in areas from Pardoo Roadhouse to De Grey and inland to Marble Bar need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR with CAUTION: People in areas from Wallal Downs to Pardoo Roadhouse are advised that the wind dangers have passed but you need to take care to avoid any dangers caused by damage.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 am January 13 1 20.7S 119.3E 35
+6hr 8 am January 13 tropical low 21.6S 118.5E 60
+12hr 2 pm January 13 tropical low 22.6S 117.6E 80
+18hr 8 pm January 13 tropical low 23.8S 116.8E 105
+24hr 2 am January 14 tropical low 24.9S 116.0E 130
+36hr 2 pm January 14 tropical low 27.1S 114.6E 165
+48hr 2 am January 15 tropical low 28.6S 113.6E 200
+60hr 2 pm January 15 tropical low 29.9S 113.0E 235
+72hr 2 am January 16 tropical low 31.1S 112.8E 270

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 6:00 am AWST Saturday

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Joyce) Warning #12A CORRECTED Corrected Final Warning
Issued at 12/1500Z

sh0518105s_121200sair

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS33 PGTW 121500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING NR 012A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121200Z — NEAR 20.3S 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 119.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 21.8S 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 23.9S 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z — 26.2S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 119.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 68 NM EAST OF
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SYSTEM NOW INLAND WITH STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
BANDING FEATURES. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
WHICH IS BASED ON BOTH SATELLITE FIXES AND PORT HEDLAND RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION BANDS WITH A
CENTRAL VORTEX JUST EAST OF THE STATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON AN APRF DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM BEDOUT ISLAND
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL STEER TC 05S
ON A TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. LAND INTERACTION
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND TC 05S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY
TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SPELLING OF AUSTRALIA.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 12 Jan, 2018 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm JOYCE is currently located near 20.3 S 119.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). JOYCE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wallal Downs (19.8 S, 120.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Marble Bar (21.2 S, 119.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Nullagine (21.9 S, 120.1 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Tom Price (22.8 S, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Anna Plains (19.3 S, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Newman (23.3 S, 119.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Gascoyne Junction (25.1 S, 115.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

201805s1201805s_01

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:21S119E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1846UTC 12 JANUARY 2018

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Joyce was centred over land within 20 nautical
miles of
latitude twenty decimal seven south (20.7S)
longitude one hundred and nineteen decimal three east (119.3E)
Recent movement : southwest at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 984 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 75 nautical miles of centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots over water easing to 30 knots by 0000 UTC 13 January.

Winds above 34 knots within 75 nautical miles of centre over water until 0000
UTC 13 January with rough to very rough seas and low to moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 13 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 22.6 south 117.6 east over
land
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 13 January: Within 70 nautical miles of 24.9 south 116.0 east over
land
Central pressure 998 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 13 January 2018.

WEATHER PERTH

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Australia (WA): Tropical Low moving off W Kimberley coast unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone (TCWC Perth) – Published 190115 1123z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Low

The weak tropical low is moving off the west Kimberley coast, but conditions are not favourable for development. There is only a slight chance that it will develop into a tropical cyclone (TCWC Perth)

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 5:43 pm WST Monday 19 January 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 14.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Kimberley low unlikely to become a tropical cyclone. Warnings cancelled but the system will be closely monitored.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: No active warning areas.

Watch zone: No active watch areas.

Details of Tropical Low at 5:00 pm WST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near centre 28 kilometres per hour with wind gusts 83 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 18.2 degrees South, 121.9 degrees East , 45 kilometres southwest of Broome and 420 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland .
Movement: west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour .

The weak tropical low is moving off the west Kimberley coast, but conditions are not favourable for development. There is only a slight chance that it will develop into a tropical cyclone.

Hazards:

Sustained gales are not expected in coastal communities but areas of heavy rain are likely over the west Kimberley. Please refer to the latest Flood Warnings for more details – http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/.

Recommended Action:

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:

ALL CLEAR: People in, near or between Cape Leveque and Mardie are advised that damaging winds are no longer expected.

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 5 pm January 19 tropical low 18.2S 121.9E 75
+6hr 11 pm January 19 tropical low 18.6S 120.7E 85
+12hr 5 am January 20 tropical low 19.2S 119.3E 100
+18hr 11 am January 20 tropical low 19.8S 117.6E 120
+24hr 5 pm January 20 tropical low 20.6S 115.7E 140
+36hr 5 am January 21 tropical low 21.6S 113.3E 175
+48hr 5 pm January 21 tropical low 22.6S 111.9E 215
+60hr 5 am January 22 tropical low 23.1S 110.9E 260
+72hr 5 pm January 22 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system unless it reintensifies.#

Western Australia Warnings Summary

http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/index.shtml?ref=hdr

JTWC

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:18S122E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0952UTC 19 JANUARY 2015

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0900 UTC a tropical low was centred within 40 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal two south (18.2S)
longitude one hundred and twenty one decimal nine east (121.9E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 10 knots
Maximum winds : 15 knots
Central pressure: 1003 hPa
The tropical low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

AREA AFFECTED
Nil.

FORECAST
Gales are no longer expected over marine areas

REMARKS

No further warnings will be issued unless the system intensifies.

WEATHER PERTH

There are other warnings at METAREA X

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (WA): Severe Tropical Cyclone #RUSTY: 262100Z nr 19.4S 119.1E stationary.Wind 95 Knots INTENSIFYING (JTWC) – 260213 2200Z

GO TO:

Australia (WA): Severe Tropical Cyclone #RUSTY: 270900Z near 20.0S 119.5E moving SSE at 4 knots. Wind 80 knots/92.2 mph (JTWC) 2702130915Z

Australia (WA): Severe Tropical Cyclone #RUSTY: 262000WST nr 19.3S 119.1E near stationary. Windgust 195kmh INTENSIFYING (WA TCWC) WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PORT HEDLAND – 260213 1430Z

GO HERE: Australia (WA): Severe Tropical Cyclone #RUSTY: 262100Z nr 19.4S 119.1E stationary.Wind 95 Knots INTENSIFYING (JTWC) – 2602132200Z

Australia (WA): Severe Tropical Cyclone RUSTY – 250213 2115z

GO HERE>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Australia (WA): Severe Tropical Cyclone #RUSTY: 260900Z nr 19.5S 119.2E moving SSW at 3 kts (JTWC) WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PORT HEDLAND 2602131315Z