United States: Tropical Storm IRMA 11/2100Z Update from NHC and others – Updated 11 Sep 2017 2145z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL STORM IRMA

IRMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA – NHC

⚠️

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to the South Santee River
* North of Clearwater Beach to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Altamaha Sound to the South Santee River

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

SPECIAL EMERGENCY MESSAGE FROM NWS

152552_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind TS IRMA Adv 51

 

152552_earliest_reasonable_toa_34 51

activity_looprb_lalo-animated2

southeast_loop

Robins Air Force Base, GA Radar

Wind Probs  

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

…IRMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…31.5N 84.0W
ABOUT 10 MI…15 KM E OF ALBANY GEORGIA
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM S OF ATLANTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB…29.09 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warnings from Fernandina Beach southward, from
the Aucilla River westward, and from Clearwater Beach southward,
including Tampa Bay, have been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning from the Flagler/Volusia County line to
Altamaha Sound is discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning from north of the Suwannee River to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to the South Santee River
* North of Clearwater Beach to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Altamaha Sound to the South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor
the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 84.0 West. Irma is
moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a
turn toward the northwest is expected by Tuesday morning. On the
forecast track, the center of Irma will continue to move over
southwestern Georgia tonight and move into Alabama on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Irma is likely
to become a tropical depression on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

North of Clearwater Beach to Aucilla River…4 t 6 ft
West of Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River…1 to 3 ft
Clearwater Beach to Bonita Beach including Tampa Bay…1 to 3 ft

South Santee River to North of Fernandina Beach…4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Flagler/Volusia County line, including the St.
Johns River…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area into tonight.

Rainfall: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:

South Carolina and north-central Georgia and Alabama into the
southern Appalachians…3 to 6 inches with isolated 10 inches.
Northern Mississippi and southern portions of Tennessee and North
Carolina…2 to 4 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight along the South
Carolina coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of
the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN

LOCAL STATEMENTS

Issuing WFO Homepage Local Impacts Local Statement
Miami, FL Threats and Impacts 1125 AM EDT Mon Sep 11
Charleston, SC Not currently available 1139 AM EDT Mon Sep 11
Tallahassee, FL Threats and Impacts 1141 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 /1041 AM CDT Mon Sep 11
Atlanta, GA Threats and Impacts 1147 AM EDT Mon Sep 11
Birmingham, AL Threats and Impacts 1124 AM CDT Mon Sep 11
Melbourne, FL Threats and Impacts 233 PM EDT Mon Sep 11
Tampa Bay Area, FL Threats and Impacts 456 PM EDT Mon Sep 11
Jacksonville, FL Threats and Impacts 515 PM EDT Mon Sep 11

============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2017 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm IRMA is currently located near 31.5 N 84.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). IRMA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Charlotte (35.2 N, 80.8 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Columbia (34.0 N, 81.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Atlanta (33.8 N, 84.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Myrtle Beach (33.7 N, 79.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Montgomery (32.4 N, 86.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Tallahassee (30.4 N, 84.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Tampa (28.0 N, 82.5 W)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Nashville (36.1 N, 86.8 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours
    Louisville (38.4 N, 86.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

201711N tsr1 irma 11

201711N_0 tsr2 irma 11

=============================================================================

Other

 

at201711_5day ts irma

at201711_sat ts irma

 

The two images above are from @wunderground

Ferocious Irma Pounding Florida, But It Could Have Been Worse

No Rest for the Hurricane-Weary: Jose a Potential East Coast Threat

windy.com – interactive animated wind map

Caribbean_general_map

Caribbean General Map (Image: Kmusser)

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 112035

WTNT21 KNHC 112035
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE STORM SURGE WARNINGS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD… FROM
THE AUCILLA RIVER WESTWARD… AND FROM CLEARWATER BEACH
SOUTHWARD… INCLUDING TAMPA BAY… HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND IS DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE
OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* NORTH OF CLEARWATER BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION… FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE…
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC… AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 84.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….360NE 230SE 150SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 390SE 390SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 84.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 83.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 33.1N 85.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…220NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 34.5N 87.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.8N 88.8W…POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 37.0N 88.5W…POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 84.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

=============================================================================

000
FZNT25 KNHC 112138
OFFN04

NAVTEX Marine Forecast
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
538 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

…Please refer to Coastal Waters Forecasts (CWF) available
through NOAA Weather Radio and other means for detailed
Coastal Waters Forecasts…

Southeast Gulf of Mexico

.SYNOPSIS…Tropical Storm Irma near 31.5N 84.0W, 985 mb moving
NNW at 15 kt at 5 PM EDT, and inland over SW Georgia. Maximum
sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Irma will continue moving NNW
and and weaken to a depression as it move farther N. A weak
pressure pattern will set up across the Gulf in the wake of Irma
through the remainder of the week. N to NE swell from Irma will
dominate seas across the Gulf through Tue.

.TONIGHT…W to NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt
late in the night. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NW to N swell. Slight
chance of showers.
.TUE…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft,subsiding to
3 to 5 ft late in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft early in the morning,
subsiding to 2 ft or less. Isolated thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT…SE to S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.THU…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.THU NIGHT…S winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E after midnight.
Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI NIGHT…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

Within 200 nm east of the coast of Florida

.SYNOPSIS…Tropical Storm Irma near 31.5N 84.0W, 985 mb moving
NNW at 15 kt at 5 PM EDT, and inland over SW Georgia. Farther E,
Hurricane Jose is near 26.4N 69.2W, 973 mb moving N at 10 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts to 105 kt. Jose is expected
to move to 27.2N 69.0W tonight, to 27.0N 67.7W Tue afternoon, to
26.3N 66.7W Tue night, to 25.3N 66.1W Wed afternoon, to 24.4N
68.6W Thu afternoon, before moving slowly NW thereafter as its
completes this clockwise loop. Swell from Jose will dominate
area waters Tue through Fri.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TONIGHT…SW to W winds 15 to 20 kt S of 27N, and SW 20 to 25 kt
N of 27N. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NE to E swell. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE…W winds 5 to 10 kt S of 27N, and SW to W 15 to 20 kt N of
27N. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NE to E swell. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE NIGHT…SW winds less than 5 kt S of 27N, and SW to W 10 to
15 kt N of 27N. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.WED…S of 27N,SW to W winds less than 5 kt, shifting to N late
in the afternoon. N of 27N,SW winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E to
SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Slight chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU…NE to E winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft in NE swell.
.THU NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT…N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft in NE swell.
.SAT NIGHT…NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft in NE swell.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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United States (FL): Tropical Storm EMILY 311800Z nr 27.6N 82.2W, moving E at 10 mph (NHC FL) – Published 31 Jul 2017 1825z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm EMILY

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Englewood to Bonita Beach Florida

National Hurricane Center (FL)

 

000
WTNT31 KNHC 311748
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emily Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

…EMILY LOCATED INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA…
…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA…

 

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.6N 82.2W
ABOUT 30 MI…50 KM SE OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM SW OF BARTOW FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 85 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Anclote River
southward to Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Englewood to Bonita Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely within the warning area, in this case within the next few
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emily was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 82.2 West. Emily is
moving toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue this afternoon. A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed are expected by tonight
and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Emily will
continue to move farther inland over the west-central Florida
peninsula this afternoon, and move across central Florida through
tonight. Emily is forecast to move offshore of the east-central
Florida coast Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Emily is expected to weaken to a tropical depression
while it moves across the Florida peninsula this afternoon and
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km),
mainly southeast through south of the center. A wind gust to 38 mph
was recently observed in Punta Gorda, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west coast of central
Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with isolated amounts
up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central and south Florida,
1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized amounts of up to 4
inches possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area
through this afternoon.

TORNADOES: A brief tornado could occur across the central and
southern Florida Peninsula today, with isolated waterspouts
possible over the coastal waters of southwestern Florida.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1434

WTNT21 KNHC 311434
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062017
1500 UTC MON JUL 31 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO BONITA BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 82.8W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 20NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 82.8W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 83.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 27.7N 81.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 28.9N 79.6W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.5N 77.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.2N 75.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.3N 70.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 37.7N 63.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 82.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

US: DEBBY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA (NHCAdv16) – 27 June 2012 1010 GMT/UTC

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(Image: NHC NOAA)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click image for source)

NWS Tallahasee, FL Local Doppler Radars

Fort Rucker, AL (KEOX)
(check status)�E��E�

The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar at Ft. Rucker, AL.  Click on the image for additional options.�E��E�

Moody AFB, GA (KVAX)
(check status)�E��E�

The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar at Moody AFB, GA.  Click on the image for additional options.

Eglin AFB, FL (KEVX)
(check status)�E��E�

The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar at Eglin AFB, FL.  Click on the image for additional options.

Tallahassee, FL (KTLH)
(check status)�E��E�

The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar that serves Tallahassee, FL.  Click on the image for additional options.

POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY (CLICK HERE FOR JAX BRIEFING)…

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 27 Jun, 2012 9:00 GMT

Tropical Depression DEBBY (AL04) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States
probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

N Atlántico: Alerta de tormenta emitido al 27 de junio 2012 09:00 GMT

Tropical DEBBY Depresión (AL04) se prevé que la huelga de la tierra a la probabilidad siguiente (s) en el plazo de entrega determinado (s):
País alerta amarilla (s) o de la Provincia (s)
los Estados Unidos
probabilidad de TS es del 90% en la actualidad
Amarillo Ciudad Alerta (s) y Ciudad (s)
Orlando (29,0 N, 81,5 W)
probabilidad de TS es del 55% en la actualidad

Nótese que
Alerta amarilla (elevada) es CAT 1 o superior a entre 10% y 30% de probabilidad, o TS anteriormente probabilidad del 50%.
CAT 1 significa que vientos huracanados de fuerza de por lo menos 74 mph, 119 km / ho 64 nudos 1-min sostenida.
TS significa vientos fuerza de tormenta tropical de al menos 39 mph, 63 km / ho 34 nudos 1-min sostenida.

Para información de los pronósticos gráfica y otros detalles por favor visite http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

000
WTNT34 KNHC 270831
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
500 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

…DEBBY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST OF
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.6N 81.0W
ABOUT 25 MI…45 KM SE OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH…17
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…DEBBY
SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM FLORIDA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE…ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTS OF FLORIDA SHOULD SUBSIDE
LATER TODAY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH DEBBY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE LINGERING
RAIN BANDS…MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTCA44 TJSJ 270931
TCPSP4

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA  NUMERO  16
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL042012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM EDT MIERCOLES 27 DE JUNIO DE 2012

…DEBBY MENOS ORGANIZADA MIENTRAS ALCANZA LA COSTA ESTE DEL NORTE
CENTRAL DE FLORIDA…

RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMACION
————————————————–
LOCALIZACION…29.6 NORTE 81.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 25 MI…45 KM AL SURESTE DE ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL…ESTE NORESTE O 75 GRADOS A 10 MPH…17 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA…998 MB…29.47 PULGADAS

VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
——————–
NO HAY VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
—————————————————
A LAS 5:00 AM EDT…0900 UTC…EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL
DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.6 NORTE…LONGITUD
81.0 OESTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A
CERCA DE 10 MPH…17 KM/H. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE
TRASLACION. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA…DEBBY DEBERA ALEJARSE
GRADUALMENTE DE FLORIDA HOY.

VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH…55 KM/H…CON
RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN SU INTENSIDAD
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 998 MB…29.47 PULGADAS.

PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
————————-
MAREJADA CICLONICA…NIVELES ALTOS DE AGUA EN AREAS DONDE LAS AGUAS
NORMALMENTE FLUYEN SOBRE LA COSTA A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DEL
SUROESTE Y NORESTE DE FLORIDA DEBEN DISMINUIR MAS TARDE HOY. PARA
INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA…FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.

LLUVIA…SE ESPERA QUE LAS LLUVIAS ASOCIADAS A DEBBY CONTINUEN
DISMINUYENDO A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA MAS TARDE HOY.
CANTIDADES AISLADAS ADICIONALES DE HASTA UNA PULGADA SON POSIBLES EN
LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE DEBBY…MAYORMENTE SOBRE EL SUR DE FLORIDA.

PROXIMAS ADVERTENCIAS
———————
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA…1100 AM EDT.

$$

PRONOSTICADORES AVILA

000
WTNT44 KNHC 270832
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
500 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

SATELLITE…RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF DEBBY IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING ELONGATED. THE CENTER
IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION…BUT THE AREA
OF MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 075
DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS IN A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
FLORIDA ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL
PROBABLY 30 KNOTS IN A FEW SQUALLS MAINLY OVER WATER.

NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH…AND IN FACT…BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST
WEAKENING IN THE 00 UTC RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS DEBBY AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALLOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEYOND 3
DAYS.

DEBBY IS EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH…AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR
NORTHEAST AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 29.6N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH…OVER WATER
12H  27/1800Z 30.0N  79.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  28/0600Z 30.5N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  28/1800Z 31.0N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  29/0600Z 32.0N  70.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  30/0600Z 35.0N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  01/0600Z 38.0N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 45.5N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT44 TJSJ 270832
TCDAT4

DEBBY DEPRESION TROPICAL NÚMERO 16 DE DEBATE
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042012
500 AM EDT MIERCOLES 27 de junio 2012

Las observaciones de radar … Y SATÉLITE superficie indica que el
CIRCULACIÓN DE DEBBY es cada vez más alargada. EL CENTRO
Es difícil de localizar Dada la falta de organización … PERO LA ZONA
DE PRESION MINIMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE O ESTE-075
GRADOS a 9 nudos en el noreste de la Florida Central. LA MAYORÍA DE LAS PROFUNDIDADES
CONVECCIÓN está en una banda tipo frontal AMPLIACIÓN DEL NORESTE
A TRAVES DE LA FLORIDA Atlántico adyacente. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SON TODAVÍA
Probablemente 30 nudos con una TURBONADAS PRINCIPALMENTE sobre el agua.

NINGUNA DE LAS DIRECTRICES DE INTENSIDAD muestran un aumento significativo EN
Fuerza … Y, de hecho … Tanto el modelo GFS y ECMWF dan a entender
Debilitamiento en el RUN 00 UTC. El pronóstico oficial DEBBY MANTIENE COMO
DEPRESION TROPICAL Y PERMITE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE más allá de 3
DÍAS.

DEBBY está incrustado en flujo del oeste dentro de la base A MEDIADOS DE LA LATITUD
A TRAVÉS DE … y debe seguir para avanzar en la ESTE-NORESTE O
NORESTE DE LO INDICADO POR LOS MODELOS GLOBALES. LA PREVISIÓN OFICIAL
En medio de la GFS y ECMWF MODELOS.

POSICIONES DE PREVISIÓN Y Vientos máximos

INIT 29.6N 81.0W 27/0900Z 30 KT 35 MPH … SOBRE EL AGUA
12H 30.0N 79.4W 27/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30.5N 76.5W 28/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31.0N 73.0W 28/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 32.0N 70.5W 29/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 35.0N 66.5W 30/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 38.0N 62.0W 01/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 45.5N 50.0W 02/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

A man has been captured on film using a wind created by tropical storm Debby to leap over an entire pier at Redington Beach, Florida, according to the Telegraph.

The gale-force winds, which have been measuring up to 50 miles per hour, lift him totally clear of the structure.

The video was taken by onlooker Jay Gartner, who uploaded it onto YouTube on Sunday, and it has since been viewed over 300,000 times. – AOL