Okinawa/ Japan/ Taiwan/ South Korea/ West Pacific: Typhoon LAN 25W 191500Z 17.5N 130.0E, moving N 8kt (JMA) – Updated 19 Oct 2017 1908z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON LAN (25W)

(=CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 30 FEET. – JTWC

 

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1721-002

991

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

TY 1721 (Lan)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 19 October 2017

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 19 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N17°30′ (17.5°)
E130°00′ (130.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 220 km (120 NM)
NW 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 800 km (425 NM)
N 560 km (300 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 20 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°00′ (19.0°)
E129°55′ (129.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area SE 280 km (150 NM)
NW 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 20 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N20°35′ (20.6°)
E130°00′ (130.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 21 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N24°00′ (24.0°)
E131°10′ (131.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 430 km (230 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N30°25′ (30.4°)
E133°40′ (133.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 410 km (220 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 650 km (350 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 25W (Lan) Warning #17
Issued at 19/1500Z

wp25172

25w_191200sair

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
191200Z — NEAR 16.9N 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 325 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 130.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 18.3N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 325 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 19.9N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 335 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
390 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
345 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z — 21.5N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 385 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
420 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 23.6N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 435 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
385 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
450 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 28.8N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
355 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
450 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
490 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 26 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 36.9N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 395 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
475 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
385 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
355 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 30 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 43.6N 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
525 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
450 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 130.0E.
TYPHOON 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 589 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN

NOAA

rb_lalo-animated21

TROPICAL STORM (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 19 Oct, 2017 12:00 GMT

Typhoon LAN is currently located near 16.9 N 130.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). LAN is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. LAN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 72 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 96 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 96 hours
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 96 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 96 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 96 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 96 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 72 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 72 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 72 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 96 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 96 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 96 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 96 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 96 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 96 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 96 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 96 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 72 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 120 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 96 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 96 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 96 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 96 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 120 hours
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 96 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 120 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 96 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 120 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201725w2201725w_02

 

Other

wp201725_5day2

wp201725_sat1

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

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seawarn17101921

WTJP22 RJTD 191800
WARNING 191800.
WARNING VALID 201800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1721 LAN (1721) 965 HPA
AT 17.9N 130.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 19.4N 129.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 21.0N 130.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 25.6N 131.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 32.8N 135.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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Hainan/ China/ Macau/ Hong Kong: TYPHOON KHANUN 24W 151500Z nr 20.9N 110.7E, moving W 19kt (JTWC) – Updated 15 Oct 2017 1455z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON KHANUN (24W)

(=CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

⚠️ Hainan, Macau, Hong Kong, China & Vietnam beware!
Taiwan  Laos be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 22 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 24W (Khanun) Warning #14
Issued at 15/1500Z

wp24173

24w_150000sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 21.0N 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 111.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 20.8N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 20.0N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 18.9N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 17.6N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 16.4N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 110.7E.
TYPHOON 24W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

JMA logo

1720-002

TY 1720 (Khanun)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 15 October 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 15 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°40′ (20.7°)
E111°50′ (111.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 560 km (300 NM)
S 440 km (240 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 16 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°20′ (20.3°)
E109°40′ (109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 16 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N19°25′ (19.4°)
E108°20′ (108.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N16°55′ (16.9°)
E107°50′ (107.8°)
Direction and speed of movement S 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 October>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N15°20′ (15.3°)
E107°30′ (107.5°)
Direction and speed of movement S Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)

PAGASA-DOST

@dost_pagasa

Official Twitter Account of Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST)

Tropical Cyclone Advisory No. 1

For: Typhoon “Khanun” (1720) (formerly “Odette”)
Issued at: 11:00 AM, 15 October 2017

At 10:00 AM today

Location of center: 795 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon (20.1ºN, 114.4ºE) [OUTSIDE PAR]

Maximum Sustained Winds: 120 km/h near the center

Gustiness: up to 145 km/h

Forecast movement: West at 20 km/h

This tropical cyclone outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) has no direct effect on any part of the country. Furthermore, this weather system is expected to make landfall over Southern China in the next 24 hours.

The next update on this weather disturbance will be incorporated in the Public Weather Forecast to be issued at 4:00 PM today and at 4:00 AM tomorrow.

NOAA

 rb_lalo-animated16

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Oct, 2017 12:00 GMT

Typhoon KHANUN is currently located near 21.0 N 111.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). KHANUN is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KHANUN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Macau
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours
    Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Laos
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201724w3

201724w_03

MARITIME/SHIPPING

As of today, there is no Tropical Cyclone within Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

 JMA logo

WTJP21 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1720 KHANUN (1720) 950 HPA
AT 20.7N 111.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 20.3N 109.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 19.4N 108.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 16.9N 107.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 15.3N 107.5E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
17101521

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ Russia: Tropical Storm Talim 20W 17/1500Z update from JTWC and others – Updated 17 Sep 2017 1547z (GMT/UTC)

 Tropical Storm Talim 20W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET – JTWC

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 20W (Talim) Warning #36
Issued at 17/1500Z

 

 

wp2017 TALIM JTWC 17

20W_171200sair TALIM 17

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
171200Z — NEAR 34.1N 134.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 050 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 134.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 39.5N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
390 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 29 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 44.8N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 35.5N 135.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

1718-00 TALIM JMA 17

JP WARNING

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

rb_lalo-animated3

STS 1718 (Talim)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 17 September 2017

<Analysis at 14 UTC, 17 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N35°20′ (35.3°)
E135°40′ (135.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 190 km (100 NM)
NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)
<Estimate for 15 UTC, 17 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N35°40′ (35.7°)
E136°05′ (136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 190 km (100 NM)
NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N40°40′ (40.7°)
E139°25′ (139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 60 km/h (33 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area NE 410 km (220 NM)
SW 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N45°50′ (45.8°)
E142°35′ (142.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 50 km/h (28 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area E 600 km (325 NM)
W 370 km (200 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Sep, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm TALIM is currently located near 34.1 N 134.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). TALIM is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk (47.0 N, 142.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201720W TALIM TSR1 17

201720W_0 TALIM TSR2 17

Russia

17.9.2017 16:00 | Day 18 September with saving until the end of the day in the Kaliningrad region, heavy rain is expected to wind up to 25 m/s.

17.9.2017 12:00 | On the night of September 18 in the Orenburg region expected freezing on soil (temperature to -2°).

16.9.2017 22:00 | Day 17 September and the first half of the night 18 September in the Irkutsk region precipitation (rain, wet snow), wind 18-23 m/s, storms, the establishment of a temporary snow cover.

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in the South Kuril and Kuril regions expected strong winds up to 35-40 m/s (hurricane), strong, sometimes very heavy rain (15-49 mm, 50 mm or more for 12:00).

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in southern Sakhalin and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk is expected to be very heavy rain (30 mm for 12:00), wind 25-30 m/s, gusts of 33-38 m/s (hurricane); 19 September in rivers podjomy water levels on the sharp 0.5 m -1.0.

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 and 19 September night in the East of Primorsky Krai expected places heavy rain (15-45 mm for 12:00 or less), wind 15-20 m/s, on the coast with gusts up to 28 m/s.

“In Monday, when Typhoon Talim will move along the western coast of Japan on water area of the sea of Japan, it will have an impact on the weather, the eastern half of the Primorski Krai. Rains of varying intensity, on the East coast of possible heavy rains and strong winds to the 20-25 m/s.

Ex-Talim will bring on Sakhalin and southern Kuril Islands rain and wind up to 15-20 m/s In the zone Tuesday spread to Northern Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. In Thursday afternoon in the southern area of the wind will die down, the Northern Islands will still windy.” – Russian National Forecaster (link)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

JP MARITIME 17

JP WX MAP 17

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1718 TALIM (1718) 975 HPA
AT 34.4N 134.6E SHIKOKU MOVING NORTHEAST 26 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 40.7N 139.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 45.8N 142.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/ Taiwan/ South China Sea: Tropical Cyclone MAWAR 010900Z position near 20.7N 118.2E, moving NNW 07 knots (JTWC) – Published 01 Sep 2017 1000z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Mawar

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 12 FEET – JTWC

wp201718_5day MAWAR WUND

(Image: @wunderground)

wp201718_sat MAWAR WUND

(Image: @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 18W (Mawar) Warning #03
Issued at 01/0900Z

wp1817 MAWAR JTWC

18W_010600sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
010600Z — NEAR 20.5N 118.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 118.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z — 21.1N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z — 21.8N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z — 22.4N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 23.2N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 25.4N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 28.2N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 118.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 010600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z
AND 020900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (SANVU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

jma-logo3

1716-00 JMA

TS 1716 (Mawar)
Issued at 07:00 UTC, 1 September 2017

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 1 September>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N20°10′ (20.2°)
E118°10′ (118.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 2 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N21°00′ (21.0°)
E117°30′ (117.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 3 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N22°05′ (22.1°)
E116°25′ (116.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 4 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N24°20′ (24.3°)
E114°00′ (114.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 1 Sep, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression MAWAR is currently located near 20.5 N 118.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). MAWAR is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201718W tsr1

(Image: TSR)

201718W_0 tsr2

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

seawarn mawar

17090115 mawar jma map

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600
WTJP22 RJTD 010600
WARNING 010600.
WARNING VALID 020600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1716 MAWAR (1716) 998 HPA
AT 20.2N 118.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 21.0N 117.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 22.1N 116.4E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 24.3N 114.0E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 0600

WWHK82 VHHH 010600
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) MAWAR (1716): NIL.
GALES OVER NE PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS).
SYNOPSIS (010600UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
AT 010600UTC, TD MAWAR (1716) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HPA
AND MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KT WAS CENTERED WITHIN 90 NM OF 20.3N
118.5E AND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 020600UTC: 21.3N, 117.7E
GALES OVER NE PART OF SCS LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER GALES LATER.
SWELL E TO NE 3 M OVER N AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE SCS.
SWELL SE 3 M OVER LUZON STRAIT.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) WITHIN 180 NM FROM CENTRE OF MAWAR.
SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN, CENTRAL PART
OF SCS.
ISOLATED SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS NEAR MALAYSIA, SEAS NEAR
SOUTHERN PART OF VIETNAM.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

=======================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China: Severe Tropical Storm Hato 15W 23/1200Z nr 22.7N 115.3E, moving WNW 30 km/h (16 kt) (JMA) – Updated 23 Aug 2017 1332z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Hato 15W downgraded to Severe Tropical Storm by JMA

 

JAPAN MET

1713-00 jma 23

STS 1713 (Hato)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 23 August 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 23 August>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N22°40′ (22.7°)
E111°00′ (111.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 330 km (180 NM)
N 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 24 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23°20′ (23.3°)
E107°55′ (107.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 24 August>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N23°40′ (23.7°)
E104°30′ (104.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

CMA CHINA typhoon_logo_v2.0
Typhoon Message
20170823 20:26

National Meteorological Center No.680
Analysis Time: Aug. 23th 12 UTC
Name of TC: HATO
Num. of TC: 1713
Current Location: 22.7°N 110.9°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 25m/s(90km/h)
Central Pressure: 985hPa
Forecast movement: next 24hrs HATO will moving WNW at speed of 28km/h
Currently on land
Red Warning of Typhoon

23-08-2017Source:National Meteorological Center

The National Meteorological Center issued red warning of typhoon at 6:00 p.m. on August 23.

At 5:00 p.m. today, Typhoon Hato, this year’s 13th typhoon, centered northern parts of the South China Sea (21.3N, 115.2E), about 200 kilometers away from southeastern Zhuhai city, Guangdong province. The maximum wind near the typhoon center hit scale 13 (40m/s).

It is forecasted to move toward northwest at a speed of 25 kilometers per hour with a strengthening force. At noon today, it is predicted to make landfall in Guangdong coast ranging from Zhuhai City to Yangjiang City (40~48 m/s, scale 13~15, typhoon level or severe typhoon level). After that Hato will continue to march toward west with a shrinking strength and slip into Guangxi on the evening of August 23 (30~33 m/s, scale 11~12, severe tropical storm or typhoon level).

Gale forecast: From August 23 to 24, in portions of Taiwan Strait, northern parts of the South China Sea, Qiongzhou Strait, Beibu Gulf, Guangdong coast, southern Fujian coast, eastern and northern Hainan coast, Guangxi coast, southern Guangdong coast, and eastern Guangxi, scale 7~9 gale is forecasted. Pearl River Estuary will be battered by scale 11~13 gale. Furthermore, the sea or land areas on the way of the typhoon center are expected to be hammered by scale 14~15 gale or scale 16~17 gust.

Precipitation forecast: From August 23 to 24, in some certain locations of most of Guangxi, western and southern Guangdong, northern Hainan Island, southern Fujian coast, and western Taiwan, heavy rain or rainstorm is forecasted. Furthermore, portions of southeastern Guangxi, southwestern Guangdong, and northeastern Hainan Island will be exposed to heavy rainstorm or extraordinary rainstorm (250~350 mm). (August 23)

Editor Wu Peng

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 23 Aug, 2017 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Typhoon HATO is currently located near 22.2 N 112.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). HATO is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. HATO is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Macau
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201715W tsr1 23

(Image: TSR)

201715W_0 tsr2 23

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11/ TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 231200

WTJP21 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1713 HATO (1713) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 985
HPA
AT 22.7N 111.0E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 23.3N 107.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 23.7N 104.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/ Taiwan: Tropical Storm Haitang 302100Z position nr 24.8N 119.7E, moving NNW 13kt (JTWC) – Updated 30 Jul 2017 2120z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Haitang 12W

(Huaning in Philippines – Use hashtag )

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET – JTWC

wp201712_5day Tropical Storm Haitang WUND 30

(Image: @wunderground)

wp201712_sat_anim Tropical Storm Haitang WUND 30

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 12W (Haitang) Warning #11
Issued at 30/2100Z

 

wp1217 Haitang JTWC 30

 

 

 

WTPN32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301800Z — NEAR 24.2N 120.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 345 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 120.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 26.5N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z — 28.5N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 119.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 94 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z,
310900Z AND 311500Z. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 07W (NORU)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1710-00 JMA 00 Haitang

Himawari 8 near real time (link)

TS 1710 (Haitang)
Issued at 19:10 UTC, 30 July 2017

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 30 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N24°40′ (24.7°)
E120°20′ (120.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 440 km (240 NM)
N 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N28°10′ (28.2°)
E117°55′ (117.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N29°05′ (29.1°)
E116°10′ (116.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Jul, 2017 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HAITANG is currently located near 24.2 N 120.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). HAITANG is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    China
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201712W Haitang TSR1 30

(Image: TSR)

201712W_0 Haitang TSR2 30

(Image: TSR)

Other

MARITIME/SHIPPING

seawarn 30

JMA map 30

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 301800

WTJP22 RJTD 301800
WARNING 301800.
WARNING VALID 311800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1710 HAITANG (1710) 990 HPA
AT 24.7N 120.3E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTH 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 28.2N 117.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 29.1N 116.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Taiwan/ Japan/ China: Typhoon Nesat 11W 290900Z 23.9°N 122.4°E, moving NNW 20 km/h (11 kt) (JMA)- Updated 29 Jul 2017 1130z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Nesat 11W

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

⚠️ Taiwan, Ishigaki Island, Ryukyu Islands (Japan) and China BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z  IS 32 FEET- JTWC

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

Himawari 8 near real time (link)

TY 1709 (Nesat)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 29 July 2017

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 29 July>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N23°55′ (23.9°)
E122°25′ (122.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 390 km (210 NM)
N 280 km (150 NM)
<Estimate for 10 UTC, 29 July>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N24°05′ (24.1°)
E122°20′ (122.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 390 km (210 NM)
N 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 29 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N24°50′ (24.8°)
E119°30′ (119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (35 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 140 km (75 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 30 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25°05′ (25.1°)
E118°10′ (118.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 100 km (55 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27°35′ (27.6°)
E118°20′ (118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 1 August>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N29°30′ (29.5°)
E117°35′ (117.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 11W (Nesat) Warning #14
Issued at 29/0900Z

 

 

WTPN34 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (NESAT) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
290600Z — NEAR 23.3N 122.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 122.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 24.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 25.0N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 25.6N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 27.2N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 31.4N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 122.2E.
TYPHOON 11W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (TWELVE)WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Jul, 2017 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NESAT is currently located near 23.3 N 122.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). NESAT is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NESAT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

(Image: JMA)

 

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 290900

WTJP34 RJTD 290900
WARNING 290900.
WARNING VALID 300900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1709 NESAT (1709) 960 HPA
AT 23.9N 122.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 24.8N 119.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 25.1N 118.2E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ West Pacific: Severe Tropical Storm Nanmadol (1703, 05W) 04/1000Z nr 34.1N 137.1E, moving E 65 km/h (36 kt) (JMA) – Updated 04 Jul 2017 1130z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Nanmadol (1703, 05W)

JAPAN beware!

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

 

 

STS 1703 (Nanmadol)
Issued at 10:45 UTC, 4 July 2017

<Analysis at 10 UTC, 4 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N34°05′ (34.1°)
E137°05′ (137.1°)
Direction and speed of movement E 65 km/h (36 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 220 km (120 NM)
N 110 km (60 NM)
<Estimate for 11 UTC, 4 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N34°10′ (34.2°)
E137°50′ (137.8°)
Direction and speed of movement E 65 km/h (36 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 220 km (120 NM)
N 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°40′ (35.7°)
E144°00′ (144.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 5 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N37°20′ (37.3°)
E151°35′ (151.6°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 6 July>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44°30′ (44.5°)
E171°10′ (171.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 85 km/h (45 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)

===============================================================

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 05W (Nanmadol) Warning #10
Issued at 04/0900Z

 

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 04/0900Z

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
040600Z — NEAR 33.6N 134.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 075 DEGREES AT 34 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.6N 134.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 35.3N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 33 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 36.9N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 34.0N 136.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 34
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
NNNN

Tropical Storm Risk

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 4 Jul, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NANMADOL is currently located near 33.6 N 134.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). NANMADOL is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 65% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

News Report

 

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 040600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 41N 142E
46N 150E 53N 160E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 30N 160E 30N 140E 35N
140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 994 HPA AT 57N 154E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 994 HPA AT 51N 164E NORTH 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 17N 133E NW 15 KT.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 43N 148E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 26N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 122E TO 36N 124E 37N 131E 39N 140E 37N 146E
37N 151E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1703 NANMADOL (1703) 992 HPA AT 33.6N 134.2E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 040900

WTJP31 RJTD 040900
WARNING 040900.
WARNING VALID 050900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1703 NANMADOL (1703) 992 HPA
AT 34.1N 136.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 36 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 35.7N 144.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 37.3N 151.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South China Sea: Tropical Storm Merbok (1702, 04W) 11/1500Z nr 18.8N 116.0E, moving NNW 13kt (JMA) – Published 11 Jun 2017 1900z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Merbok (1702, 04W)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

TS 1702 (Merbok)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 11 June 2017
<Analysis at 15 UTC, 11 June>
Scale

Intensity

Center position
N18°50′ (18.8°)

E116°00′ (116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement
NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure
1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area
ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 12 June>
Intensity

Center position of probability circle
N20°40′ (20.7°)

E115°10′ (115.2°)
Direction and speed of movement
NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure
1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle
70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 15 UTC, 12 June>
Intensity

Center position of probability circle
N22°25′ (22.4°)

E114°50′ (114.8°)
Direction and speed of movement
N 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure
998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle
90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 13 June>
Intensity

TD
Center position of probability circle
N25°10′ (25.2°)

E118°20′ (118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement
NE 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure
1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle
280 km (150 NM)

=================================================================================

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 04W (Merbok) Warning #03
Issued at 11/1500Z

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
111200Z — NEAR 18.2N 116.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 345 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 116.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 20.2N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 22.0N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 23.6N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 25.1N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 17 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z — 26.9N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 27.9N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 16 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 29.7N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 116.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 04W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN

================================================================================

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 11 Jun, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MERBOK is currently located near 18.2 N 116.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). MERBOK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

(Image: DoctorAdvice4u.com )

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 


METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 111200
WARNING 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1702 MERBOK (1702) 1002 HPA
AT 18.1N 116.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 20.2N 115.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 22.1N 115.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 25.2N 118.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/Taiwan: Severe Tropical Storm Nepartak (1601, 02W) 082100Z POSITION near 23.7N 119.5E, moving N 01 Knot (JTWC) – Updated 08 Jul 2016 2040Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm  Nepartak/ Butchoy in PH (1601, 02W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 18 FEET

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground Satellite

Image: @wunderground Satellite

 Japan Meteorological agency

1601-00 8

 

1601-00 enlarged.png 8

STS 1601 (Nepartak)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 8 July 2016

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 8 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N23°40′ (23.7°)
E119°25′ (119.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 330 km (180 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 9 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25°30′ (25.5°)
E117°20′ (117.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 10 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N28°10′ (28.2°)
E117°30′ (117.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 02W (Nepartak) Warning #24
Issued at 08/2100Z

wp0216 8a

WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 024
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 23.4N 119.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 119.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 24.4N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 25.3N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 26.2N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 27.3N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 119.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at  6 Jul, 2016 6:00 GMT

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jul, 2016 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NEPARTAK is currently located near 23.4 N 119.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). NEPARTAK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Image: TSR

Image: TSR

 

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 081800

WTJP21 RJTD 081800
WARNING 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1601 NEPARTAK (1601) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON
980 HPA
AT 23.7N 119.4E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 25.5N 117.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 28.2N 117.5E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

END

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/ Japan/ Taiwan/ China: Typhoon Dujuan (21W) 25/2100Z near 20.5N 130.7E, moving NNW 7 knots (JTWC) – Updated 25 Sept 2015 2053z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Dujuan (21W)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Ishigakijima, Okinawa, Japan, Taiwan and China beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 25 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1521-00 25

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

TY 1521 (DUJUAN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 25 September 2015

<Analyses at 25/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N19°55′(19.9°)
E131°20′(131.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°05′(22.1°)
E129°05′(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°20′(23.3°)
E126°35′(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°00′(25.0°)
E122°50′(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 21W (Dujuan) Warning #17
Issued at 25/2100Z

wp2115 25

21W_250532sams

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251800Z — NEAR 20.2N 131.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 131.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 21.3N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 22.0N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 22.5N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 23.1N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z — 24.6N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 26.1N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 27.6N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 130.7E.
TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 417 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND
262100Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

Other Reports

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 25 Sep, 2015 18:00 GMT

Typhoon DUJUAN (21W) currently located near 20.2 N 131.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201521W 25A

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

15092603

WWJP25 RJTD 251800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 142E 42N 140E
44N 145E 51N 157E 60N 163E 60N 180E 38N 180E 40N 160E 40N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 39N 137E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 34N 146E EAST 20 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 52N 167E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 994 HPA AT 44N 170E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 14N 147E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 48N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 26N 162E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 132E TO 32N 135E 33N 141E 34N 146E 34N 150E
31N 153E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1521 DUJUAN (1521) 970 HPA AT 20.1N 131.0E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0900

WTJP21 RJTD 251800
WARNING 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1521 DUJUAN (1521) 970 HPA
AT 20.1N 131.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 22.1N 128.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 23.2N 125.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 24.6N 121.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Kyushu/ Japan/ South Korea: Typhoon Goni (16W) 24/1500Z 30.5N 129.5E, moving NNE at 20 knots (JMA) – Updated 24 Aug 2015 1725Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Goni / Ineng 16W

( = CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 40 FEET- JTWC

Okinawa, Kyushu, JAPAN BEWARE!!

 Taiwan, South Korea, North Korea, Russia & China be aware!

Landfall over Kyushu is expected close to midnight tonight UK time (2300 GMT/UTC)

– UK Met Office

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1515-00 24 1600z
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15082421

CLICK IMAGE FOR LATEST WARNINGS

CLICK IMAGE FOR LATEST WARNINGS

TY 1515 (GONI)
Issued at 16:45 UTC, 24 August 2015

<Analyses at 24/16 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N30°50′(30.8°)
E129°35′(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE170km(90NM)
NW90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL460km(250NM)
<Estimate for 24/17 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N31°05′(31.1°)
E129°50′(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE170km(90NM)
NW90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL460km(250NM)
<Forecast for 24/21 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N32°25′(32.4°)
E130°20′(130.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area SE200km(110NM)
NW140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 25/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N34°35′(34.6°)
E131°00′(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area SE220km(120NM)
NW170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 25/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N35°50′(35.8°)
E131°25′(131.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area SE240km(130NM)
NW190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 25/15 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N36°55′(36.9°)
E131°35′(131.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area SE240km(130NM)
NW200km(110NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 16W (Goni) Warning #43
Issued at 24/1500Z

wp1615 24

wp16152409

16W_241132sair

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 043
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
241200Z — NEAR 29.6N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 035 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.6N 128.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 33.1N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 36.2N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 38.9N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 16 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 42.0N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 30.5N 129.2E.
TYPHOON 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 40
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Prognostic Reasoning

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Aug, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon GONI (16W) currently located near 29.6 N 128.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201516W 24

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

Typhoon Goni set for landfall over Japan – UK Met Office

24 August 2015 – The very active typhoon season in the Pacific Ocean has continued with intense typhoons Goni and Atsani tracking across the ocean during the last week

Whilst Atsani has stayed out at sea, Goni moved very close to the northern tip of the Philippines before making a sharp turn northwards. The typhoon then passed close to Taiwan before starting to move across the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. On Sunday the eye of Typhoon Goni passed over the island of Ishigaki with wind gusts of over 150 mph being recorded.

Goni is still a powerful typhoon as it accelerates north-eastwards towards south-western parts of mainland Japan. Landfall over Kyushu is expected close to midnight tonight UK time (2300 GMT/UTC) . Wind speeds in excess of 100 mph and heavy rain is expected bringing the risk of structural damage, damaging waves, flooding and landslides.

Typhoons Goni and Atsani on 20 August 2015. Image courtesy of The National Institute of Informatics

Typhoons Goni and Atsani on 20 August 2015. Image courtesy of The National Institute of Informatics 

The latest typhoons are part of an extremely active season for tropical cyclones across the whole Pacific Ocean brought about by the developing strong El Niño. In total there have been 28 tropical storms across the northern Pacific this year which includes 18 typhoons or hurricanes (different names for the same features in the west and east Pacific). 13 of the typhoons or hurricanes have been strong enough to be classified as ‘major’ on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Meanwhile the Atlantic has been relatively quiet with just four tropical cyclones so far this season. However, in the last few days Danny became the first hurricane of the season and, despite being downgraded to a tropical storm, is bringing windy and wet conditions to the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean.

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific are produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via on Twitter.

Last updated: 24 August 2015

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 241500

WTJP31 RJTD 241500
WARNING 241500.
WARNING VALID 251500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1515 GONI (1515) 940 HPA
AT 30.5N 129.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 34.6N 131.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 36.9N 131.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY..=

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

TAIWAN/ CHINA: Typhoon Soudelor (13W) 081500Z POSITION near 24.9N 118.9E, moving NW at 08 knots (JTWC) – Updated 080815 1506Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Soudelor (13W)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 26 FEET (JTWC)

TAIWAN AND CHINA BEWARE!

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

Japan Meteorological agency

1513-00 8
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15080821

TY 1513 (SOUDELOR)
Issued at 13:00 UTC, 8 August 2015

<Analyses at 08/12 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N24°55′(24.9°)
E119°30′(119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E650km(350NM)
W500km(270NM)
<Forecast for 09/00 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N26°20′(26.3°)
E117°35′(117.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area NE220km(120NM)
SW190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 09/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27°55′(27.9°)
E116°35′(116.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N30°50′(30.8°)
E116°00′(116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

CWB Taiwan

CWB TAIWAN (Click here)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 13W (Soudelor) Warning #38
Issued at 08/1500Z

wp1315 8

13W_081132sair

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 038
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 24.6N 119.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 119.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 25.9N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 27.6N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 118.9E.
TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Aug, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon SOUDELOR (13W) currently located near 24.6 N 119.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Ganzhou (25.7 N, 115.0 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201513W 8

News Reports

Tropical Storm in Mariana Islands

President Barack Obama has declared the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands a disaster area and is ordering federal aid to help the U.S. territory in the aftermath of a destructive typhoon. The White House on Thursday announced the disaster declaration for Typhoon Soudelor, which destroyed homes, toppled trees and snapped utility poles over the weekend on the 48-square-mile island of Saipan. Damage surveys were ongoing, but the commonwealth remained without electricity and running water, and residents were rationing fuel. Most major roadways have been cleared of uprooted trees and debris, Saipan resident Glen Hunter said. “The morning after the typhoon, you could not get anywhere because of the power poles … and trees that fell on the ground,” lifelong Saipan resident Lucy Selepeo said. “The tin houses, practically everything just flew away. The only thing you can see from the houses are the foundations.” Selepeo said concrete homes that withstood the winds, like hers, are flooded. More than 500 people on Saipan were in shelters, according to the Red Cross. Officials distributed water at various stations across the island. Still, signs of aid remained scarce going into the fifth day after the storm, Selepeo said. “I encountered a family of eight who slept on the beach in their car because their home flew away,” she said. About 50,000 people live on the commonwealth’s four populated islands, with most residing on Saipan, which took the brunt of the storm. Nearby Tinian got some damage, while Rota was spared, said Gregorio Kilili Camcacho Sablan, the commonwealth’s delegate to U.S. Congress. As for Pagan, “No idea,” he said. “I have no way to contact Pagan.” Ten generators were being shipped from Guam to power water pumps in Saipan, but the harbor was closed Thursday because of a listing boat that was half underwater, Sablan said. Restoring power could take a month or two, he said. “I haven’t seen a storm like this in 20 years,” Sablan said. “Unfortunately, the resources we have are hardly enough to get things up.” Wind speeds during the storm were between 100 mph and 120 mph. In an area that’s used to typhoons, Sablan said he and others were expecting it to pass with maybe 80 mph winds. That there were no reports of deaths or serious injury “seems almost impossible,” Hunter said. There initially was a $20-per-vehicle limit on buying gasoline, which meant motorists could get only about four gallons, Hunter said. Some easily burned through that amount while waiting in long lines at the pumps. On Thursday, the limit increased to $50, Sablan said. Gov. Eloy Inos was on vacation visiting his children on the U.S. mainland. “He’s doing everything he can to come back home. … He’s very anxious,” Sablan said. Despite the desperate conditions, residents were hopeful.

“There is nowhere to go but up from here,” Selepeo said. “We’re optimistic. We will recover.”
Saturday, 08 August, 2015 at 04:39 (04:39 AM) UTC RSOE

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

seawarn 8

Marine Warnings: SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA

23:35 JST 08/08/2015

OKINAWA WX
082100JST ISSUED AT 082335JST

STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA SOUTH OF
OKINAWA

TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970HPA AT 24.9N 119.5E MOVING NNW 09KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150NM NE SIDE AND 100NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350NM EAST SIDE AND 270NM ELSEWHERE
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900JST AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 55KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100JST AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 45KT NEAR CENTER

IN SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE-LY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

IN SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100JST AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION

WARNING VALID 092100JST

Marine Warnings: SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA

23:35 JST 08/08/2015

OKINAWA WX
082100JST ISSUED AT 082335JST

STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA SOUTH OF
OKINAWA

TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970HPA AT 24.9N 119.5E MOVING NNW 09KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150NM NE SIDE AND 100NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350NM EAST SIDE AND 270NM ELSEWHERE
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900JST AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 55KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100JST AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 45KT NEAR CENTER

IN SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE-LY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

IN SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100JST AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION

WARNING VALID 092100JST

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN /081200

WTJP21 RJTD 081200
WARNING 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970 HPA
AT 24.9N 119.5E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Korea/ China: Severe Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (09W) 12/1500Z POSITION nr 37.5N 125.1E, moving N/NNE 20 knots (JTWC) – Updated 120715 1500z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (09W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1509-00 c12

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15071215 c12

STS 1509 (CHAN-HOM)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 12 July 2015

<Analyses at 12/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N36°35′(36.6°)
E125°00′(125.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E600km(325NM)
W390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 13/00 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N39°40′(39.7°)
E127°00′(127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 13/12 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N42°10′(42.2°)
E130°30′(130.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 09W (Chan-hom) Warning #49
Issued at 12/1500Z

wp0915 c12

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 11/2100Z

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 11/2100Z

09W_112332sams c12

WTPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 049
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121200Z — NEAR 36.8N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 015 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.8N 124.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 39.6N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 40.9N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 37.5N 125.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Jul, 2015 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM (09W) currently located near 36.8 N 124.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    P’yongyang (39.0 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sariwon (38.5 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kanggye (41.0 N, 126.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Hamhung (39.9 N, 127.6 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Sinuiju (40.1 N, 124.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201509W_0 c12

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

seawarn c12

CLICK IMAGE FOR MORE DETAIL

WTJP21 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509) 980 HPA
AT 36.6N 125.0E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 39.7N 127.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 42.2N 130.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 120600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED EASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED
BY 15N 176E 15N 180E 13N 180E 13N 176E 15N 176E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED WESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED
BY 13N 176E 13N 180E 11N 180E 11N 176E 13N 176E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 32N 136E 33N 136E
35N 137E 36N 143E 43N 146E 56N 163E 60N 164E 60N 180E 40N 180E 36N
160E 32N 142E 32N 136E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 49N 132E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 47N 153E SE 15 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 57N 146E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1511 NANGKA (1511) 950 HPA AT 18.6N 137.6E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509) 975 HPA AT 34.9N 124.2E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines: Typhoon NOUL (06W)/ DODONG further weakened and accelerated as it moves Northeastward (PAGASA) – 110515 1245z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon NOUL SIX (06W)/ DODONG in PH

Typhoon “#DodongPH” has further weakened and accelerated as it moves Northeastward (PAGASA)

(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 38 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1506-00 N11

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Analysis Chart (PDF)

TY 1506 (NOUL)
Issued at 10:45 UTC, 11 May 2015

Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°20′(22.3°)
E122°50′(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL80km(45NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°25′(22.4°)
E122°55′(122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL80km(45NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°35′(23.6°)
E124°00′(124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area ALL140km(75NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°05′(26.1°)
E126°50′(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55km/h(29kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL180km(95NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°20′(28.3°)
E129°50′(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 65km/h(34kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N30°30′(30.5°)
E133°35′(133.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 70km/h(38kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 240km(130NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

PHILIPPINES

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

dodong_15051106

5:00 p.m. Weather Bulletin in pdf 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 06W (Noul) Warning #34
Issued at 11/0900Z

wp0615 n11

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/06W_110532sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 034
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
110600Z — NEAR 21.8N 122.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 025 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 122.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 25.2N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 36 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 29.6N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 41 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 34.6N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 43 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 40.2N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 123.5E.
TYPHOON 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z,
120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 May, 2015 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NOUL (06W) currently located near 21.8 N 122.6 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Typhoon Noul Nears Southern Japan Monday Near Landfall Outlook (WestPacWx)

Typhoon Noul continues to track North away from the Philippines and towards Japan this Monday evening setting the stage for a early season typhoon in the southern Japanese islands including the island of Okinawa.  Winds will max out there during the morning hours as the storm races by being pulled quickly north east by a passing cold front. At this time JMA is warning of winds gusting up to 180kph in Okinawa, …

Read More

Other Reports

Typhoon Dodong (Noul) slammed into the northern tip of the Philippines May 10, prompting almost 3,000 people in Northern Luzon to flee their homes and knocking out power in Cagayan. It has since weakened, and the state weather bureau said the typhoon will be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Tuesday, May 12. It’s expected to move north towards Japan, the government weather station said.

Read the full story on Rappler.

Read the full story on evacuation on Rappler.

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 110900

WTJP31 RJTD 110900
WARNING 110900.
WARNING VALID 120900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1506 NOUL (1506) 955 HPA
AT 22.0N 122.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 26.1N 126.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 30.5N 133.6E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 110600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 110600.
WARNING VALID 120600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 40N 167E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 40N 167E TO 39N 170E 38N 172E.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 172E TO 36N 174E 33N 176E.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 172E TO 31N 165E 25N 153E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
500 MILES ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER LOW 994 HPA AT 38N 160E
MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 36N 123E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 36N 123E TO 34N 125E 31N 128E.
COLD FRONT FROM 36N 123E TO 30N 120E 26N 115E 25N 111E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 43N 146E 47N 152E
55N 162E 53N 180E 30N 180E 30N 170E 37N 160E 40N 150E 43N 146E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 47N 146E ESE 20 KT.
LOW 998 HPA AT 57N 151E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 35N 142E ESE 20 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1506 NOUL (1506) 950 HPA AT 21.6N 122.3E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1507 DOLPHIN (1507) 998 HPA AT 09.8N 160.0E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

GALE WARNING # 08 (FINAL)

FOR: Strong to gale force winds associated with Typhoon “DODONG”.
Issued at: 5:00 pm today, 11 May 2015
Strong to gale force winds has weakened.

SEABOARDS

WEATHER

WIND FORCE
(KPH / KNOTS)

SEA CONDITION

WAVE HEIGHT (meters)

THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF NORTHERN LUZON
(Isabela and Eastern Coast of Cagayan)

Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms

(35– 59) /(19 – 32)

Moderate to rough

2.1 to 4.0

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are alerted against moderate to rough seas.

This is the final gale warning.

PAGASA

Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippine Sea/ Philippines/ Taiwan: Tropical Depression Inday 291200Z near 18.3N 129.5E, moving W at 6 knots (RSMC Tokyo) – Published 290714 1625z (UTC)

Tropical Depression WP96 “INDAY”

Tropical Depression “Inday” has maintained its strength as it moves in a west northwest direction – PAGASA

Japan Meteorological agency

(RSMC Tokyo is the lead agency in this area)

TD
Issued at 13:15 UTC, 29 July 2014

<Analyses at 29/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N18°20′(18.3°)
E129°30′(129.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
<Forecast for 30/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N20°05′(20.1°)
E126°35′(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

Philippines

PAGASA-DOST

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER TWO
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION “INDAY” 
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Tuesday, 29 July 2014

Tropical Depression “Inday” has maintained its strength as it moves in a west northwest direction.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.)
680 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 19.0°N, 128.9°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 20 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Wednesday evening:
260 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes
Thursday evening:
390 km North of Basco, Batanes

Friday evening:
700 km North of Basco, Batanes.

No Public Storm Warning Signal

 

Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5 – 15 mm per hour (moderate – heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.

 

Tropical Depression “INDAY” will not affect any part of the country. However, it will enhance the Southwest Monsoon which will bring occasional rains over Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas and the provinces of Zambales and Bataan.

 

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.

 11:00 p.m. Weather Bulletin in pdf 

MARITIME

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500 

WTJP32 RJTD 291500
WARNING 291500.
WARNING VALID 301500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1411 HALONG (1411) 992 HPA
AT 13.6N 146.7E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 14.5N 143.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1200

WWJP25 RJTD 291200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 291200.
WARNING VALID 301200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA
AT 18.3N 129.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 20.1N 126.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 142E 42N 144E
51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 30N 160E 30N 148E 39N 148E 40N
142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 992 HPA AT 48N 165E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 37N 146E ESE 15 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 29N 167E EAST 15 KT.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 48N 165E TO 48N 166E 47N 169E.
WARM FRONT FROM 47N 169E TO 42N 175E 36N 177E.
COLD FRONT FROM 47N 169E TO 41N 167E 38N 160E 35N 157E 33N 153E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 153E TO 32N 149E 31N 144E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1411 HALONG (1411) 992 HPA AT 13.0N 147.5E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/ Taiwan: Tropical Storm Matmo (10W): 240600Z near 29.1N 117.9E, moving N at 25kmh(13knots) (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 240714 0745z (UTC)

Tropical Storm  1410 (MATMO) ( RSMC Tokyo)

Tropical Storm  201410 (MATMO) (CWB Taiwan)

 Tropical Storm 10W (MATMO)(TWC)

Bagyong Henry (#HenryPH) in Philippines

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

RSMC Tokyo (Lead agency in this area)

Japan Meteorological agency

TS 1410 (MATMO)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 24 July 2014

<Analyses at 24/06 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N29°05′(29.1°)
E117°55′(117.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E500km(270NM)
W330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 24/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N32°50′(32.8°)
E118°35′(118.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 25/06 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N35°55′(35.9°)
E120°35′(120.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TAIWAN

Typhoon Path

Taiwan Weather Warning

HONG KONG

Tropical Storm MATMO
at 08:00 HKT 24 July 2014

Position: 27.9 N, 117.9 E (about 730 km north-northeast of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 85 km/h

Tropical Cyclone Track at 08:00 HKT 24 July 2014

Tropical Cyclone Track at 08:00 HKT 24 July 2014

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
08:00 HKT 25 July 2014 33.4 N 119.7 E Tropical Depression 45 km/h
08:00 HKT 26 July 2014 38.4 N 123.5 E Tropical Depression 55 km/h
08:00 HKT 27 July 2014 40.1 N 127.0 E Extratropical Low

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The accuracies, based on average errors, of the latest analysed and forecast positions are of the order of:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 150 km
    48-hour forecast position 250 km
    72-hour forecast position 350 km
  • The centres of the red, blue and grey circles are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure). The radii of the circles are the respective accuracies.
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are based on Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warning for shipping issued eight times a day at 0:30, 3:30, 6:30, 9:30, 12:30, 15:30, 18:30 and 21:30 HKT, about one and a half hours after the time of observation. The analysed positions incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based provisional positions given in the hourly bulletins for public. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/10W_231132sair.jpg

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 231500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 025
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 10W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 25.8N 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8N 119.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 28.0N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 30.6N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 26.4N 118.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEGENERATE AS
IT TRAVERSES NORTH IN EASTERN CHINA ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SITUATED OVER THE RYUKYU ISLAND CHAIN.
MATMO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
TOPOGRAPHICAL FRICTION AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER
LAND, APPROXIMATELY 150NM WEST OF SHANGHAI IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
IT IS ABSORBED IN THE MID-LATITUDE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 23 Jul, 2014 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm MATMO (10W) currently located near 25.8 N 119.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

OTHER REPORTS

Matmo Weakens but still causing problems. ( Thursday Update )

MARITIME

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 240600
WARNING 240600.
WARNING VALID 250600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1410 MATMO (1410) 990 HPA
AT 29.1N 117.9E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 32.8N 118.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 35.9N 120.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0000

WWJP25 RJTD 240000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 240000.
WARNING VALID 250000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 38N 142E 40N 142E
42N 141E 42N 143E 46N 150E 51N 157E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 44N
180E 38N 160E 38N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 48N 134E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 42N 147E ENE 15 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 49N 148E ENE 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 10N 135E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 08N 148E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 24N 136E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 47N 176E ALMOST STATIONARY.
WARM FRONT FROM 42N 147E TO 40N 150E 38N 151E.
COLD FRONT FROM 42N 147E TO 40N 145E 38N 141E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 38N 141E TO 37N 133E 36N 120E 32N 115E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1410 MATMO (1410) 990 HPA AT 27.9N 117.7E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 0600

WWCI50 BABJ 240000
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 0330UTC JUL.24 2014=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000UTC JUL. 24=
FORECAST VALID 0000UTC JUL. 25=
WARNNING=
STS MATMO 1410(1410) 990HPA AT 27.9N 117.9E
MOVING N 30KM/H AND MAX WINDS 23M/S AND
FORECAST FOR 250000UTC AT 34.5N 118.8E 998HPA
AND MAX WINDS 15M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
SLY WINDS FROM 14 TO 22M/S GUST 26M/S SEAS UP TO
4.5M OVER EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT AND
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND NORTHEAST PART OF
SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 14M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
3.0M OVER BASHI CHANNEL AND SOUTHWEST PART OF
SOUTH CHINA SEA=
FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SOUTH PARTS OF
YELLOW SEA AND HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS
THAN 5KM=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM ALSO OVER
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA AND
SUNDA STRAIT=
FORECAST=
SE WINDS FROM 06 TO 08M/S BACK NE WINDS FROM 12
TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER BOHAI SEA
AND BOHAI STRAIT AND NORTH AND MIDDLE PARTS
OF YELLOW SEA=
SLY/SE WINDS 12 TO 18M/S GUST 22M/S SEAS
UP TO 3.5M OVER SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA
AND NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
SLY/SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUST 24M/S SEAS
UP TO 4.5M OVER SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
AND TAIWAN STRAIT AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 14M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
3.5M OVER BASHI CHANNEL=
SW WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM 14 TO 20M/S GUST 24M/S
TO 08 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER NORTHEAST PART
OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 14M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
3.0M OVER SOUTH PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 12 TO 14M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP
TO 3.0M OVER SEA WEST OF GUAM=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 14M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP
TO 2.5M OVER SEA NORTHEAST OF INDONESIA=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 0000

WWHK82 VHHH 240000
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
TROPICAL STORM (TS) MATMO(1410):
RADIUS OF GALES: 90 NM OVER E SEMICIRCLE, 60 NM ELSEWHERE.
SYNOPSIS (240000UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MATMO (1410) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TS.
AT 240000UTC, MATMO WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA AND
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KT WAS CENTERED WITHIN 60 NM OF 27.9N
117.9E AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE N AT ABOUT 14 KT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 250000UTC: 33.4N, 119.7E
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER GALE WARNING AREA.
SWELL S TO SW 3 M OVER SEAS NEAR LUZON, SEAS NEAR TAIWAN,
NE PART OF SCS.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQUALLY(SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) WITHIN 180 NM FROM CENTRE OF MATMO(1410).
SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF
SCS AND SEAS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VIS 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

 http://www.passageweather.com/maps/chinasea/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Kyushu/ Okinawa/ Japan: Typhoon NEOGURI 08W/ FLORITA (=CAT3-SS) 081700Z nr 28.8N 125.7E, moving N at 13 knots (JMA) Leaving Southern Japanese islands, heading toward Kyushu (WestPacWx) – Updated 080714 1830z (UTC)

TYPHOON NEOGURI 1408 (JMA)

(Equivalent to a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) (JTWC)

Typhoon Neoguri is leaving behind the southern Japanese islands Tuesday night and now sets its eyes ahead towards the southern coast of Kyushu.(WestPacWx)

25 People injured in Okinara, 2 died at sea in Western Japan (NHK)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

JMA IS THE LEAD AGENCY IN THIS AREA

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Analysis Chart (CLICK IMAGE FOR ANIMATION/SOURCE)

 

Japan Radar (JMA) Radar and Nowcasts (Precipitation, Thunder, Tornadoes): Japan (CLICK IMAGE FOR ANIMATION/SOURCE)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

CLICK ON IMAGE TO GO TO JMA WARNINGS PAGE

TY 1408 (NEOGURI)
Issued at 17:50 UTC, 8 July 2014

<Analyses at 08/17 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°50′(28.8°)
E125°40′(125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE310km(170NM)
NW170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE700km(375NM)
NW440km(240NM)
<Estimate for 08/18 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N29°00′(29.0°)
E125°40′(125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE310km(170NM)
NW170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE700km(375NM)
NW440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 09/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°30′(30.5°)
E126°10′(126.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area SE350km(190NM)
NW260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 09/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°20′(31.3°)
E127°30′(127.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area SE370km(200NM)
NW310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N31°40′(31.7°)
E132°25′(132.4°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area SE480km(260NM)
NW430km(230NM)
<Forecast for 11/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N34°00′(34.0°)
E138°10′(138.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

SOUTH KOREA

Korea Meteorological Administration

Typhoon

Forecast Chart

No.8 NEOGURI

Issued at(KST) : 2014.07.09. 01:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2014.07.08. 15:00 Analysis 28.3 125.6 945 45 162 400
(W 350)
Very Strong Medium N 22
2014.07.09. 03:00 Forecast 30.5 126.0 955 41 148 360
(WNW 310)
Strong Medium N 21 100
2014.07.09. 15:00 Forecast 31.9 128.0 965 38 137 320
(NW 270)
Strong Medium NE 20 150
2014.07.10. 03:00 Forecast 32.3 130.6 970 36 130 300
(NW 270)
Strong Medium E 20 210
2014.07.10. 15:00 Forecast 33.2 133.5 980 31 112 280
(NW 230)
Normal Small ENE 25 250
2014.07.11. 03:00 Forecast 35.4 137.6 985 27 97 250
(NW 200)
Normal Small ENE 38 325
2014.07.11. 15:00 Forecast 38.5 142.3 990 24 86 230
(NW 180)
Weak Small ENE 45 400
2014.07.12. 15:00 Forecast 45.7 151.1 996 NE 45

�� It is provided only for the typhoon information in progress. The past information could be found in National Typhoon Center homepage.

�� National Typhoon Center Homepage

2014

COMS : 2014/07/09 01:45 (KST)

PHILIPPINES

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Severe Weather Bulletin #6 (FINAL) issued at 10AM July 08, 2014

TY FLORITA is now outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility ( PAR).

At 9AM today, the eye was located @ 610 km NE of Basco, Batanes (25.4N,126.0E), with maximum winds/gustiness:185/220 kph. It is forecast to move North @ 20 kph. It will continue to enhanced the SW monsoon bringing moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over Palawan, Mindoro, Cavite, Batangas, Zambales and Bataan while the rest of Luzon and western Visayas will have occasional rains. Sea travel is risky over the northern, eastern, & southern seaboards of Luzon and the western seaboards of southern Luzon and of Visayas. It is expected to be at 200km Northwest of Okinawa, Japan this evening. PAGASA-DOST

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 081500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 27.8N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 125.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 29.9N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 31.2N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 31.9N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 19 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 33.0N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 22 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 37.7N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 29 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 47.3N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 28.3N 125.8E.
TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 37 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
NNNN

 

Prognostic Reasoning

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jul, 2014 12:00 GMT

 

Typhoon NEOGURI (08W) currently located near 27.8 N 125.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
 Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
  South Korea
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

WestPacWX

Western Japan Braces for Neoguri, Forecast and Impacts

 

Vis Sat

Typhoon Neoguri is leaving behind the southern Japanese islands Tuesday night and now sets its eyes ahead towards the southern coast of Kyushu.

Several thousand residents from the islands southern coastlines have been told to evacuate ahead of Typhoon Neoguri due to the threat of storm surge near the coast and flash flooding farther inland. Heavy rains due to the rainy season front have already saturated the ground here.  In parts of southern Kyushu up to 200mm of rainfall is expected through Wednesday evening.

Winds in the Amani islands off the southern coast of Kyushu could see gust as high as 126kph through Wednesday Evening. 11 meter high waves are expected on the Amani islands.

TCCOR 1 Will likely be issued for the military in Sasebo. If not typhoon warnings via JMA are still in place.

Damaging winds as high as 130kph gusting to 185kph at landfall in Kagoshima is in the forecast by Thursday morning as Typhoon Neoguri makes landfall along the southern Coast of Kyushu as the equivalant of a Category 1 storm. 

These winds will be over a small area though and the bulk of the area will see 90kph sustained winds.

In Kagoshima and Miyazaki up to 400-500mm of rainfall is likely as moisture wraps around Neoguri is pushed on shore in to the mountains of the Western Japan. Flash flooding, landslides and rapid river level rise will be a high threat here.

Even though the storm in Okinawa is very dangerous the overall impact on infrastructure and the risk of flooding and landslides will likely result in more damage across Kyushu despite it being a slightly weaker storm.

Flood Threat in Western Japan

Farther north the rain will be the biggest issue though. Across much of Honshu flooding will be a problem through Friday including in the Tokyo area river level rise will be one of the main threats from this storm.

The rainfall in the Kanto Plain will likely start by Thursday evening and last through Friday as the Center of Neoguri pushes over mainland Japan.

At this time no cancellations of flights in Tokyo have been made but anyone who plans on traveling should be prepared for the risk of delays cancellations.

Expect Neoguri to weaken rapidly over Japan. It will still carry with it a deluge of moisture but the center of circulation will be torn apart over the mountains of Japan.

Tragedy in Kochi

High waves ahead of Neoguri caused a capsize off of Kochi Prefecture in Shikoku resulting in one death on Tuesday. Waves at the time of the capzise were 4 meters high according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Typhoon Neoguri Live Coverage

 The video update is now over, you can watch the playback above, continued updates and new information will be posted below.  For latest track and extended info. go to the tropical information center.  or find us on facebook. Typhoon Neoguri now moving over the southern Japanese islands, max winds reported is up to 191kph. At this

Read More…

Typhoon Neoguri Damage and Impact Information

Typhoon Neoguri now moving over and away from the southern Japanese islands, max winds reported is up to 191kph. At this time 590,000 have been advised to evacuate. On the main island of Okinawa most of these are in the Ginowan area near coastal locations.  Once again with the evacuation advisories, it states. “Authorities are telling them to

Read More…

 

Violent Typhoon Neoguri will blow past Okinawa on Tuesday (Monday Night Update)

Residents in Southern Japan should now be hunkered down and prepared to ride out Typhoon Neoguri as it races north towards Okinawa, Kume-Jima, Miyako-Jima and Ishigaki on Tuesday. PLEASE CHECK BACK IN FOR A LIVE CAST ON OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL Despite the forecast taking the center of the storm west of Okinawa the wind field

Read More…

Violent “Super” Typhoon Neoguri Nears Okinawa, Evacuations in Kyushu Underway

End

Okinawa Emergency Action Guide

American Red Cross Okinawa

Okinawa Red Cross Hospital

Kadena AFB, Okinawa Facebook page

MARITIME

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP31 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1408 NEOGURI (1408) 950 HPA
AT 28.4N 125.7E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 30.5N 126.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 31.3N 127.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 081200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 998 HPA
AT 34N 153E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 142E 43N 142E
51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 37N 180E 36N 170E 39N 167E 39N 155E 40N
142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 42N 162E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 27N 142E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 51N 153E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 55N 170E SSE 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 124E TO 36N 130E 38N 136E 35N 141E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 161E TO 32N 164E 36N 166E 37N 170E 40N 173E
41N 179E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1408 NEOGURI (1408) 945 HPA AT 27.7N 125.7E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Okinawa/ Naha/ Japan/ Philippines: Typhoon NEOGURI/ FLORITA 08W 061500Z nr 19.3N 129.9E, moving WNW at 11 knots (JTWC) Nearing Okinawa and southern Japanese islands (WestPacWx) – Updated 060714 1518z

Typhoon NEOGURI/ FLORITA now a Super Typhoon. Latest update here: http://wp.me/p2k2mU-2JX

China/Taiwan/Japan: TD 1323 ex-FITOW: 070600Z near 27.0N 118.0E, moving WNW at 10 knots (JMA) made Fujian province landfall – 071013 1815z

Tropical Cyclone (Tropical Depression) ex-Fitow

Typhoon Fitow made landfall in East China’s Fujian province in the early hours on Monday

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1323

(Image: JMA) 5 Day Track Forecast (Click image for source)

TD
Issued at 07:00 UTC, 7 October 2013

<Analyses at 07/06 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N2700′(27.0)
E11800′(118.0)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa

 

TSR logo NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 6 Oct, 2013 12:00 GMT

Typhoon FITOW (22W) currently located near 27.0 N 121.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Fuan (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently
Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
Taichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours
Nanchang (28.7 N, 115.9 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Other Reports

China Daily Website

Typhoon Fitow makes landfall in E China

Updated: 2013-10-07 05:41

( Xinhua)

FUZHOU – Typhoon Fitow made landfall in East China’s Fujian province in the wee hours on Monday, packing winds up to 151 km per hour, the National Meteorological Center said.

 

The storm, the 23rd typhoon to hit China this year, landed in Shacheng Township of Fuding city at 1:15 am Monday. It will continue to move northwestward but weaken quickly, said the center. A red alert, the highest warning, was issued for Fitow on Sunday.

 

Cities such as Fuzhou and Sanming in Fujian will see rain of more than 200 mm from Sunday night to Monday morning, said the Fujian flood control authorities.

 

Due to the typhoon, power was cut off in Taishun county, Zhejiang province, at 11 pm Sunday. The power blackout also hit many townships in Cangnan, Wencheng, Pingyang and Dongtou counties in Zhejiang.

 

Mao Fanggui, director of the emergency office in Taishun county, told Xinhua downpour was lashing the county and most townships in the county were hit by blackout.

 

A boy in Cangnan county was injured in the abdomen by glass debris due to strong winds. He was being treated by doctors.

 

Rainstorm and winds up to 201 km per hour slashed Cangnan County and the Nanji Island Township, and some houses collapsed in the county, said the Wenzhou flood control headquarters.

 

As of 6 p.m. Sunday, some 574,000 people were evacuated and 35,795 vessels returned to harbor for shelter, said the Zhejiang Provincial Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters.

 

In Fujian, 177,000 people were displaced and nearly 30,000 fishing boats were called back.

 

The typhoon has caused suspension of bullet trains in several cities in Zhejiang, Fujian and Jiangxi and halted services on at least 35 lines that pass cities on the typhoon route, including services between Beijing and Nanjing, Shanghai, Ningbo, Fuzhou and Xiamen.

 

Wenzhou Airport, a pivotal airport in Zhejiang province, canceled 27 flights on Sunday, including flights to Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Kunming.

 

Coach services between Shanghai and Wenzhou were also suspended on Sunday. Maritime authorities in Fujian and Zhejiang have closed seaside bathing centers and other entertainment facilities on the coast.

MARITIME

(Image: JMA) Marine Warnings (Click image for source & links)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 RJTD 071500
WARNING 071500.
WARNING VALID 081500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1324 DANAS (1324) 935 HPA
AT 28.9N 127.3E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 31.6N 126.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 33.8N 129.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 1200

WWCI50 BABJ 071200
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1530UTC OCT.07 2013=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC OCT. 07=
FORECAST VALID 1200UTC OCT. 08=
WARNNING=
SUPER TY DANAS 1324(1324) 935HPA AT 28.1N 127.8E
MOVING NNW 25KM/H AND MAX WINDS 52M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 10.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS 350KM AND
RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS 160KM AND FORECAST FOR 081200UTC
AT 33.5N 128.3E 965HPA MAX WINDS 38M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
NE WINDS FROM 10 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER
SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA=
E-NE WINDS FROM 12 TO 18M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER
EAST CHINA SEA AND KOREA STRAIT=
WINDS FROM 14 TO 28M/S SEAS UP TO 5.5M OVER
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS=
WINDS FROM 30 TO 55M/S SEAS UP TO 10.0M OVER SEA
NEAR CENTER OF DANAS=
WINDS FROM 07 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
BASHI CHANNEL=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER SEA
EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS AND ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA
EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA STRAIT AND SULAWESI
SEAU=
FORECAST=
NE WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER
BOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT AND NORTH AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF YELLOW=
NE WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUST 21 TO 28M/S SEAS
UP TO 3.5M OVER SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA=
WINDS FROM 14 TO 24M/S GUST 25 TO 35M/S SEAS UP
TO 6.0M OVER EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA EAST OF RYUKYU
ISLANDS AND KOREA STRAIT=
WINDS FROM 30 TO 55M/S SEAS UP TO 10.0M OVER SEA
NEAR CENTER OF DANAS=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 18M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER
SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=
WINDS FROM 10 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN=
NLY WINDS FROM 07 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
BEIBU GULF=
WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER
ANDAMAN SEA=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 1200

WWHK82 VHHH 071200
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA (ECS).
SYNOPSIS (071200UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
SUPER TYPHOON DANAS NEAR OKINAWA IS EXPECTED TO BRING GALE
FORCE WINDS TO THE ECS LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER THE ECS LATER.
SWELL E TO NE 3 M OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN AND THE ECS.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) OVER THE ECS LATER.
SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER GULF OF THAILAND, THE SOUTHERN
PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA, SEAS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
PHILIPPINES AND SEAS NEAR MALAYSIA.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

Japanese (Translated by Google)

中国/台湾/日本:台風(CAT1-SS)22W FITOW:16ノット福建省や浙江省、中国での予想(JTWC)上陸でNWを移動27.1N121.1Eの近く061500Z、月曜日の朝0610131720z上


熱帯低気圧(台風) Fitow
(国立海洋環境予測センター)月曜日の朝に福建省や浙江省で上陸することが予想

RED CHINAのアラート 特に温州( 27.5 N 、 120.5 E) &福安市( 27.1 N 、 119.7 E)は注意してください! (TSR)

(画像: wunderground.com )衛星(ソース画像をクリック)

(画像: wunderground.com ) 5日間の予報(ソース画像をクリック)

気象庁

1323

(画像: JMA ) 5日トラックの予測(ソース画像をクリック)
TY 1323 ( FITOW )
13:10 UTC 、 2013年10月6日に発行される
6月12日UTC>で<Analyses
1:43 –
強い強度
中心位置N26 40 (26.7 )
E121 40 ( 121.7 )
動き西北西毎時20キロ( 10カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧975hPa
中央35メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 65カラット)
最大突風スピード50メートル/秒( 95カラット)
50カラット風の面積以上ALL110km ( 60nmの)
30カラット風の面積以上N440km ( 240NM )
S330km ( 180nm以下)
07/00 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
確率サークルN27 25 (27.4 )の中心位置
E119 30 ( 119.5 )
動き西北西毎時20キロ( 10カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧985hPa
最大持続風速25メートル/秒( 50カラット)
最大突風スピード35メートル/秒( 70カラット)
確率サークル90キロの半径( 50NM )
7月12日UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
確率円の中心位置N27 20 (27.3 )
E118 30 ( 118.5 )
運動Wの方向と速度をゆっくり
中心気圧998hPa
最大持続風速18メートル/秒( 35カラット)
最大突風スピード25メートル/秒( 50カラット)
確率130キロの円の半径( 70nmの)
8月12日UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
TD
確率サークルN26 25 (26.4 )の中心位置
E117 05 ( 117.1 )
動きの方向と速度はゆっくりSW
中心気圧1002hPa
確率300キロの円の半径( 160NM )
合同台風警報センター( JTWC )

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2213.gif

(画像: JTWC ) TCトラック(ソース画像をクリック)

Google Earthのグラフィックオーバーレイ

WTPN33 PGTW 061500
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN真珠湾HI / /
SUBJ /熱帯低気圧の警告/ /
RMKS /
1 。 TYPHOON 22W ( FITOW )警告NR 026
NORTHWESTPAC IN 02 ACTIVE熱帯低気圧
MAXはONE- MINUTE平均に基づいてWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

警告POSITION :
061200Z NEAR 27.0N 121.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 16 KTS AT 310 DEGREES
040 NM以内の正確な位置
POSITIONは、衛星のそば中心を基準に
PRESENT WIND配分:
065 KT 、突風080 KT MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
27.0N 121.7E : POSITを繰り返す

予測:
AT VALID 12時間:
070000Z 27.2N 119.4E
050 KT 、突風065 KT MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
24人事POSITへのベクトル:255 DEG / 09 KTS

AT VALID 24時間:
071200Z 26.7N 117.4E
035 KT 、突風045 KT MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
LAND比べて大きな熱帯低気圧AS散逸
36人事POSITへのベクトル:245 DEG / 09 KTS

VALID AT 36時間:
080000Z 25.9N 115.6E
020 KT 、突風030 KT MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
LAND比べて大きな熱帯低気圧として散逸

備考:
27.1N 121.1E NEAR 061500Z POSITION 。
TYPHOON 22W ( FITOW )は、約115 NM NORTH OF LOCATED
台北、台湾では、 OVER 16ノットで北西追跡して
過去六時間。 061200Zで最大有義波高は22です
FEET 。 062100Z 、 070300Z 、 070900Z AND 071500Z AT NEXT警告。 REFER
SIX HOURLY FOR TYPHOON 23W ( DANAS )警告( WTPN31 PGTW )へ
UPDATES 。 / /
NNNN
TSRロゴ北西太平洋: 10月6日に発行される嵐の警告、 2013十二時00分GMT

台風FITOW ( 22W )は、現在27.0の近くにN 121.7 Eが与えられたリードタイム( s)で、次の可能性(複数可)に土地を打つと予測されている:

レッドアラート国(s)または州( S)
中国
CAT 1の確率以上では、12時間以内に70%である
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%
レッドアラート市(s)とタウン(S)
温州( 27.5 N 、 120.5 E )
CAT 1の確率以上では、12時間以内に65%である
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%
福安市( 27.1 N 、 119.7 E )
CAT 1の確率以上では、12時間以内に40%で
TSの確率は、12時間以内に100%

イエローアラートカントリー(s)または州( S)
台湾
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%
イエローアラート市(s)とタウン(S)
温嶺( 28.4 N 、 121.4 E )
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%
福州(26.1 N 、 119.3 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に100%
金華(29.2 N 、 120.0 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に95%で
衢州(29.0 N 、 119.0 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に95%で
プーティエン(25.6 N 、 119.0 E )
TSのための確率は約24時間で95%で
台北(25.0 N 、 121.5 E )
TSのための確率は現在95%で
寧波(29.7 N 、 121.5 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に85%
泉州(25.0 N 、 118.5 E )
TSのための確率は約24時間で80%
漳州(24.5 N 、 117.8 E )
TSのための確率は約24時間で60%で
Taichung (24.1 N 、 120.7 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に55%である
南昌( 28.7 N 、 115.9 E )
TSのための確率は約24時間で55%である

注意してください
レッドアラートは、 (重症) CAT 1または% 31 〜100 %の確率に上です。
イエローアラート(高架) CAT 1以上〜10 %と30 %の確率、又はTSの間に50%以上の確率である。
CAT 1は、少なくとも毎時74マイルの台風の強さの風、毎時119キロまたは64ノット1分間の持続を意味している。
TSは、少なくとも毎時39マイルの熱帯性低気圧の強さの風を意味し、毎時63キロまたは34ノット1分持続。

グラフィカルな予測情報と詳細についてhttp://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/をご覧くださ&#12356;
その他のレポート

中国日報ウェブサイト
Fitowとしてレッドアラートがで終了
更新日: 2013年10月6日午前23時10
シャンフアン(中国日報)によって
台風は福建省や浙江省で上陸することが予想

沿岸地域では台風Fitow用ブレースとして嵐潮と高波のために赤のアラートは、日曜日に海事当局によって発行された。

今年中国にヒットする23台風は月曜日の朝に福建省や浙江省で上陸すると予想され、国立海洋環境予測センターは述べています。

Fitowとしてレッドアラートがで終了

台風Fitowは温嶺、浙江省を下にクマと兵士たちは日曜日に沿岸防衛を確認してください。 Fitowが月曜日に早期に福建省や浙江省で上陸すると予測されているとして、高潮のために海事当局は赤いアラート、最も高い警告を、発行している。 【 CHINA DAILY FOR JIA CE / BY PHOTO ]

10メートルと高い波が東シナ海で期待されている。

Fitowの中心は土曜日の夜に浙江省の温州の約590キロ南東にあった、と時速18キロの速度で沿岸地域を打つように設定され、予報は語った。

漁師が港に戻るよう促されたと当局は潮のサージの準備のために港湾施設や修理海の壁を補強するように求めていた、新華社が報じた。

追って通知があるまでの沿岸の観光サイトが閉じられます。

中国は最も深刻を表す赤色で、 4層の色分けされた気象警報システムを使用して、黄色及び青色オレンジした。

上海では、突風と豪雨は上海気象局によると、日曜日の夜にピークを迎えると予想されていた。

治水当局は黄浦江の水レベル以上の警告を発行していると市職員が実施されるように予防措置を求めている、地元メディアが報じた。

上海鉄道局は、上海虹橋駅から浙江省の温州、福建省福州、厦門、月曜日のためにチケットの販売を停止している。

中国東方航空は、日本では上海浦東国際空港と沖縄の間の土曜日に2便がキャンセルされ、より多くの飛行キャンセルが必要になる場合があります。

花火が上海観光局によると、火曜日まで延期された浦東新区にセンチュリーパークで日曜の夜に予定が表示されます。

浙江省のいくつかの都市で新幹線のサービスが中断され、温州空港は、北京、広州、上海、昆明へのフライトを含む日曜日に27便が、キャンセルされた。

上海、温州を結ぶ長距離バスサービスも閉鎖された。

大雨は日曜日に浙江省を打つようになった。

20万人以上の人々は日曜日の朝まで温州、台州、寧波、および舟山で安全な場所に避難していたと35,000船舶は港に戻っていた。

一方、ダムや波の障壁を検査し、強化されていた。

災害救援活動のために、人民解放軍の5,000兵士は待機することを命ぜられた。

福建省では、海事当局は安全性に​​128,000漁師を排気し、日曜日の午後でほぼ30,000漁船をバックと呼ばれる、新華社が報じた。当局はまた、沿岸の娯楽施設を閉鎖した。

新華社はこの物語に貢献した。
0

関連ストーリー

台風Fitowポンド浙江省
中国UPSの警告台風Fitowが近づくにつれて
中国問題に最も台風の警告
台風Wutipによってトラップ268漁師は、保存された

MARITIME

(画像: JMA )マリン警告(ソース&リンクについては画像をクリック)
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP23は061200をRJTD
WARNING 061200 。
VALID 071200警告。
警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。
台風警報。
TYPHOON 1323 FITOW ( 1323 ) 975 HPA
26.7N 121.7E AT東シナ海はWESTNORTHWEST 10ノットの移動。
良いポジション。
MAXは、中心部に近い65ノットの風。
50 KNOTのWINDS OVER 60マイルの半径。
30 OVER KNOTのWINDSの半径は240マイルNORTH半円AND 180マイル
ELSEWHERE 。
50マイル半径27.4N 119.5E AT 070000UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
985 HPA 、 MAX WINDS 50ノット。
70マイルの半径27.3N 118.5E AT 071200UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
998 HPA 、 MAX WINDS 35ノット。
EXTENDED見通し。
160マイルの半径26.4N 117.1E AT 081200UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
1002 HPA 。
熱帯低気圧となっております。

気象庁。 =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 1200

WWCI50 BABJ 061200
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN =
NAVAREA XI (IOR )のメッセージは、 NMC BEIJINGによって発行された
1530UTC OCT.06 2013 = AT
メッセージは= EVERY 06 HOURSに更新されます
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC 10月06 =
VALID 1200UTC 10月を見込んでいます。 07 =
=をWARNNING
26.8N 121.8E AT STY FITOW 1323 ( 1323 ) 955HPAはMOVING
西北西18KM / HとセンターNEAR MAX WINDS 42M / S( SEAS
UP 9.5Mまで)と30KTS WINDS 350キロ、半径
FOR 50KTS WINDSの半径100KMおよび予測
27.0N 117.1E 998HPA MAX WINDS 16M / S AT 071200UTC
CENTER = NEAR
22.8N 133.5E AT STY DANAS 1324 ( 1324 ) 950HPAはMOVING
NWの30KM / HとMAX WINDSセンターの近く45M / S( SEAS
UP 9.5Mまで)と30KTS WINDS 300キロ、半径
50KTS WINDSの半径130キロとの予測
27.5N 128.4E 940HPA MAX WINDS 50M / S AT 071200UTC
CENTER = NEAR
概要=
25 〜38 42M / SのSEAS最大35M / SガストTO WINDS
東シナ海南部= OVER 9.5M
13 〜25 30M / SのSEAS最大24M / SガストTO WINDS
東シナ海と海東北部OVER 6.0M
琉球諸島と北マリアナSEA OF WEST
諸島と小笠原諸島OF SEA WEST =
33からUP 42M / S SEAS TO SEA OVER 9.5M TO WINDS
FITOW = OF NEAR CENTER
33からUP 42M / S SEAS TO SEA OVER 9.5M TO WINDS
DANAS = OF NEAR CENTER
11からUP 4.0M TO OVER 20M / S SEAS TO WINDS
台湾海峡と台湾= OF EAST SEA
08 FROM UP 16M / SのSEAS TO OVER 2.5M TO NWのWINDS
南シナ海北東部=
2.5M 〜08 FROM 16M / SのSEAS TO NE / EはWINDS UP OVER
日本海南部と朝鮮海峡=
SOUTH OVER 10KM THAN HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS
東シナ海とアンダマン海と、海のPART
タイ湾のスマトラと北部の西
AND SEAシンガポールとスンダ海峡東と
スラウェシSEA =
FORECAST =
33からUP 42M / S SEAS TO SEA OVER 9.0M TO WINDS
FITOW = OF NEAR CENTER
EAST OVER 6.0Mまで17から28M / S SEAS TO WINDS
中国海と台湾海峡と海東
TAIWANと海琉球EAST AND SEA
NORTHマリアナ諸島とSEA WEST OF WEST
小笠原諸島=
29日からUP 48M / S SEAS TO SEA OVER 10.0M TO WINDS
DANAS = OF NEAR CENTER
最大08 FROM 16M / SのSEAS TO NW BACKのSW WINDS
バシー海峡OVER 2.5M =
10からUP 16M / SのSEAS TO OVER 2.5M TO NWのWINDS
南シナ海北東部=
11からUP 16M / SのSEAS TO OVER 2.5M TO NEのWINDS
渤海と黄海の南PART =
11からUP 3.5M TO OVER 20M / S SEAS TO ELYのWINDS
JAPAN = OF SEA SOUTH
UP 2.0M 12〜 16M / SのSEAS TOサイクロンWINDS
THAILAND GULF OVER = GULF =

Chinese (Translated by Google)

中國/台灣/日本:颱風(CAT1SS)22W菲特:27.1N121.1E附近,061500Z西北16海裡(聯合颱風警報中心)登陸後,預計在福建,浙江兩省,中國移動,在星期一早上0610131720z


熱帶氣旋(颱風)菲特
預測在星期一早晨在福建和浙江兩省登陸(國家海洋環境預報中心)

紅色警戒中國 尤其是溫州(27.5 N, 120.5 E)福安市(27.1 N, 119.7 E)當心! ( TSR )

(圖片提供: wunderground.com )衛星(點擊圖片來源)

(圖片: wunderground.com )五天天氣預報(點擊圖片源)

日本氣象廳

1323

(圖片提供: JMA ) 5天路徑預報(點擊圖片源)
TY 1323 (菲特)
發行於2013年10月6日, 13:10 UTC
在6月12日UTC> <Analyses
秤 –
強度強
中心位置N26 40′ ( 26.7 )
E121 40 (121.7 )
方向和速度運動西北20公里每小時(萬噸)
中心氣壓975hPa
附近的中心35M / s的最大風速( 65克拉)
最大陣風速度50M / s的( 95克拉)
區的風50克拉或更多ALL110km ( 60NM )
區的風30克拉或更多N440km ( 240NM )
S330km ( 180納米)
<Forecast為07/00 UTC>
強度 –
中心位置的概率圓N27 25′ ( 27.4 )
E119 30′ (119.5 )
方向和速度運動西北20公里每小時(萬噸)
中心氣壓985hPa
最大持續風速25M / s的( 50克拉)
最大陣風速度35M / s的( 70克拉)
半徑概率圓90公里( 50NM )
7月12日UTC> <Forecast
強度 –
概率圈的中心位置N27 20′ ( 27.3 )
E118 30′ (118.5 )
慢慢的方向和速度的運動W
中心氣壓998hPa
最大持續風速18m / s的( 35克拉)
最大陣風線速度25m / s的( 50克拉)
半徑概率圓130公里( 70納米)
8月12日UTC> <Forecast
強度 –
TD
中心位置的概率圓N26 25′ ( 26.4 )
E117 05′ (117.1 )
慢慢的運動方向和速度SW
中央壓力1002hPa
半徑概率圓300公里( 160NM )
聯合颱風警報中心( JTWC )

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2213.gif

(圖片提供:聯合颱風警報中心)熱帶氣旋路徑(點擊圖片源)

谷歌地球圖形疊加

WTPN33 PGTW 061500
,MSGID / GENADMIN的的/合營號颱風 WRNCEN 珍珠港HI / /
的SUBJ /熱帶氣旋警告/ /
RMKS /
1。颱風22W(菲特)警告NR 026
02個活躍的熱帶氣旋NORTHWESTPAC
基於一分鐘平均最大持續風速
風半徑僅在開放的水有效

警告位置:
061200Z 近27.0N 121.7E
運動過去六小時 310度16 KTS
位置精確到040海裡內
基於位置的衛星中心
目前風分佈:
最大持續風速 065 KT ,陣風080 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
半徑為050千噸風 085 NM東北象限
085海裡,東南象限
095海裡,西南象限
095 NM西北象限
– 160海裡半徑為034千噸風東北象限
160 NM東南象限
145 NM西南象限
165 NM西北象限
重複POSIT : 27.0N 121.7E

預測:
12小時,有效的:
070000Z 27.2N 119.4E
最大持續風速 050 KT ,陣風065 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
向量POSIT至24小時:255度/ 09 KTS

24小時,有效的:
071200Z 26.7N 117.4E
最大持續風速 035 KT ,陣風045 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在土地消散
矢量36小時POSIT : 245度/ 09 KTS

36小時,有效的:
080000Z 25.9N 115.6E
最大持續風速 020 KT ,陣風030 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在土地消耗

備註:
27.1N 121.1E 061500Z位置附近。
颱風22W(菲特),位於北部約115納米
TAIPEI , TAIWAN ,西北跟踪的16海裡以上
過去六個小時。最大有效波高在061200Z 22
英尺。 062100Z 070300Z 070900Z及071500Z NEXT警告。符號
颱風23W (丹娜絲於)警告( WTPN31 PGTW )六小時
更新/ /

TSR標誌西北太平洋: 10月6日發出的風暴警報, 2013 12:00 GMT

颱風菲特(22W )目前位於27.0附近,東經121.7預測鉛在給定的時間(s )以下的可能性(次)取得土地:

紅色警戒國家(S)或省( S )
中國
CAT 1或以上的概率是70 %在12小時內
為TS的概率是100 % ,目前
紅色警戒市(s)和鎮(S )
溫州(27.5 N, 120.5 )
CAT 1或以上的概率是65%,在12小時內
為TS的概率是100 % ,目前
福安市(27.1 N, 119.7 )
CAT 1或以上的概率是40 %在12小時內
變性人的概率是100% ,在12小時內

黃色警示國家(S)或省( S )
台灣
為TS的概率是100 % ,目前
黃色警報城(s)和鎮(S )
溫嶺市(28.4 N, 121.4 )
為TS的概率是100 % ,目前
福州(26.1 N, 119.3 )
變性人的概率是100% ,在12小時內
金華(29.2 N, 120.0 )
變性人的概率是95% ,在12小時內
衢州(29.0 N, 119.0 )
變性人的概率是95% ,在12小時內
莆田(25.6 N, 119.0 )
為TS的概率是95% ,在約24小時
台北(25.0 N, 121.5 )
變性人的概率是95 % ,目前
寧波(29.7 N, 121.5 )
變性人的概率是85 %在12小時內
泉州(25.0 N, 118.5 )
為TS的概率是80%,在約24小時
漳州( 24.5東經117.8 )
為TS的概率是60%,在約24小時
Taichung (24.1 N, 120.7 )
變性人的概率是55%,在12小時內
南昌(28.7 N, 115.9 )
為TS的概率是55% ,在約24小時

需要注意的是
紅色警報(嚴重)是CAT 1或以上至31%和100 %的概率。
黃色警戒(升高)是CAT 1或以上的介於10%和30 %的概率,或者在50%以上的概率。
CAT 1意味著颱風強度至少74英里的風,119公里/小時或每小時64海裡,持續1分鐘。
TS意味著至少39英里的熱帶風暴強度的風, 63公里每小時34節1分鐘持續。

對於圖形的預測信息和進一步詳情,請訪問http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
其他報告

中國日報網站
紅色警報菲特關閉
更新時間: 2013年10月6日23:10
單娟(中國日報)
預計颱風登陸福建和浙江兩省

海事當局發出紅色警報風暴潮和高波上週日, ,沿海地區颱風菲特支撐。

打中國今年第23號颱風預計在星期一上午在福建和浙江兩省登陸,國家海洋環境預報中心說。

紅色警報菲特關閉

士兵檢查上週日的沿海防禦颱風菲特壓在浙江省溫嶺市。海事當局已發出紅色警報,最高溫預警,風暴潮菲特預測週一早些時候在福建和浙江兩省登陸。 [圖片由賈CE / 中國日報]

預計將在中國東海海浪高達10米。

氣象預報說,菲特中心在浙江省溫州東南約590公里,並設置上週六晚打沿海地區可達18公里每小時的速度。

新華社報導,敦促漁民返回港口,並要求當局加強港口設施和維修海堤準備湧潮。

沿海旅遊景點將被關閉,直至另行通知為止。

中國採用的是四層的顏色編碼的天氣預警系統,用紅色代表最嚴重,其次是橙色,黃色和藍色。

在上海,預計最高峰會在週日晚上的陣風和暴雨,據上海氣象局。

水位超過防洪部門已發出警告,在黃浦江上,並實施預防措施,以城市,官員們呼籲,當地媒體報導。

上海鐵路局暫停門票銷售,週一從上海虹橋火車站,在浙江溫州,福建福州和廈門。

中國東方航空公司取消了兩個航班上週六在上海浦東國際機場和沖繩之間,在日本,可能需要更多的航班取消。

計劃於週日晚在浦東新區世紀公園煙花匯演已被推遲到週二,根據上海旅遊局。

子彈頭列車服務暫停在幾個城市在浙江省和溫州機場取消27個航班上週日,包括北京,廣州,上海,昆明的航班。

教練服務,連接上海和溫州也被關閉。

開始有大雨到上週日打浙江。

超過20萬人被疏散到安全的地方,在溫州,台州,寧波,舟山,週日早上和35,000艘已經返回港口。

同時,水壩和波壁壘被檢查和強化。

對於救災行動,解放軍已下令5000名士兵待命。

新華社報導,在福建,海事部門疏散128,000漁民安全和召回近30000漁船週日下午。當局還關閉了沿海地區的娛樂設施。

新華社貢獻到這個故事。
0

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268名漁民受困,受颱風蝴碟保存

海事

(圖片提供: JMA)海洋警告(點擊圖片源鏈接)
METAREA11 / / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN的1200

WTJP23 RJTD 061200
警告061200 。
警告有效071200 。
警告6小時更新一次。
颱風警報。
颱風1323菲特(1323) 975 HPA
AT 26.7N 121.7E東中國海搬家西北偏西10海裡。
POSITION不錯。
中心附近最大風65節。
超過50結風半徑60英里。
超過30個結風半徑240公里北半圓和180英里
在別處。
預測位置在50英里半徑27.4N 119.5E 070000UTC
70 %的概率圓。
985 HPA ,最大WINDS 50海裡。
預測位置在70英里半徑27.3N 118.5E 071200UTC
70 %的概率圓。
998 HPA ,最大WINDS 35海裡。
擴展前景。
預測位置在160英里半徑26.4N 117.1E 081200UTC
70 %的概率圓。
1002百帕。
熱帶低氣壓BECOMING 。

日本氣象廳。
METAREA11 / / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA的1200

WWCI50 BABJ 061200
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN =
北京NMC發出消息:第十一NAVAREA ( IOR )
AT 1530UTC OCT.06 2013 =
更新消息是每06小時=
概要有效1200UTC華僑城。 06 =
預測有效1200UTC華僑城。 07 =
WARNNING =
STY菲特1323( 1323) AT 26.8N 121.8E移動955HPA
西北偏西18KM / H和MAX WINDS 42M / S中心附近( SEAS
高達9.5M )半徑30KTS風350KM
100KM 50KTS風半徑及預測
071200UTC AT 27.0N 117.1E 998HPA最大WINDS 16M / S
靠近市中心=
STY達納斯1324 (1324) AT 22.8N 133.5E移動950HPA
西北30KM / H和MAX WINDS 45M / S中心附近( SEAS
高達9.5M )半徑30KTS風300KM
RADIUS 50KTS風130KM及預測
071200UTC AT 27.5N 128.4E 940HPA最大WINDS 50M / S
靠近市中心=
摘要=
從25到35M / S陣風38〜 42M / S SEAS UP WINDS
OVER的一部分,中國東海南部= 9.5M
24M / S陣風25到30M / S SEAS UP TO 13日至WINDS
的6.0M華北的一部分,東中國海和東部海域
作者:琉球群島,北馬里亞納海城西
群島和小笠原群島的海城西=
風速:從33到42M / S的SEAS UP到9.5M OVER SEA
中心附近菲特=
風速:從33到42M / S的SEAS UP到9.5M OVER SEA
中心附近達納斯=
風從11到20M / S到4.0M OVER海域
台灣海峽及台灣以東海域=
西北風從08到16M / S SEAS UP 2.5M OVER
中國南海東北部=
NE / E風從08到16M / S SEAS 2.5M OVER
日本和朝鮮海峽=以南海域
水平能見度小於10KM OVER南
的一部分,東中國海和安達曼海和海
西蘇門答臘和北部分泰國灣
與新加坡和巽他海峽和東部海域
蘇拉威西海=
預測=
WINDS 33〜 42M / S洲到9.0M OVER SEA
中心附近菲特=
風從17到28M / S SEAS在東亞6.0M
中國南海和台灣海峽東部海域
台灣和琉球群島以東海域及海
西,北馬里亞納群島的海城西
小笠原群島=
WINDS 29〜 48M / S洲到10.0M過海
中心附近達納斯=
NW回SW WINDS從08到16M / S SEAS UP
2.5M OVER巴士海峽=
西北風10到16M / S SEAS UP 2.5M OVER
中國南海東北部=
東北大風從11到16M / S SEAS UP 2.5M OVER
渤海和南部黃海=的
ELY風從11到20M / S到3.5M OVER海域
日本以南海域=
旋流風從12到16M / S SEAS可達2.0M
在泰國海灣=

China: Typhoon 17W USAGI/ODETTE 221500Z near 23.1N 114.6E, moving WNW at 16 knots (JTWC) Made landfall near Shanwei – 220913 1720z

Tropical Cyclone (Typhoon) USAGI/ODETTE

TYPHOON USAGI/ODETTE MADE LANDFALL NEAR
SHANWEI, CHINA (JTWC)

(Scroll down for Filipino and Chinese translation) (Mag-scroll pababa para sa Filipino at Chinese translation)
(向下滾動菲律賓和中國翻譯)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

PAGASA-DOST Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST)

Quezon City, PHILIPPINES pagasa.dost.gov.ph

As of today, there is no tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

For more information and queries, log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph or please call at telephone numbers 927-1335 and 927-2877

Japan

Japan Meteorological agency

1319TY 1319 (USAGI)
Issued at 16:10 UTC, 22 September 2013

<Analyses at 22/15 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N2300′(23.0)
E11435′(114.6)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE500km(270NM)
SW390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 23/03 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N2335′(23.6)
E11220′(112.3)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 23/15 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N2400′(24.0)
E11020′(110.3)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 24/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N2325′(23.4)
E10730′(107.5)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1713.gif

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/17W_200632sams.jpg

WTPN32 PGTW 221500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR 024 (FINAL WARNING)
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
221200Z — NEAR 22.9N 115.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 115.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 23.6N 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 24.2N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 24.0N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 114.6E.
TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 66 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP FROM HONG KONG INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR
SHANWEI, CHINA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
ANIMATIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM RJTD. TY USAGI IS EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY DECAY AS IT DRAGS WESTWARD ACROSS THE RUGGED CHINESE
INTERIOR AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REENTRY INTO OPEN WATER. //
NNNN

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 21 Sep, 2013 12:00 GMT

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 Sep, 2013 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Typhoon USAGI (17W) currently located near 22.9 N 115.2 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Macau
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Typhoon Usagi Midnight Update North Of Hong Kong

Typhoon Usagi made landfall around 1730 Hong Kong Time nearly 200km east of the city. Since then the storm started taking a westerly track north of Hong Kong bringing sustained winds between 90-95kph in a few peaks north of Hong Kong Island. Near the downtown area winds at Star Ferry have been recorded up to 75kph prior to midnight. This has resulted in numerous reports of damaged signs, billboards and also loose debris being tossed about.

Storm surge in Shantou

Storm surge in Shantou

A train collided with a downed tree in Hong Kong through the late night hours. This was quickly resolved.

Sunday Afternoon flooding in

Shantou was also seen in low lying coastal areas. Shantou is a city east of Hong Kong in eastern Guangdong . Image Above

Numerous structures have been shown in images on Sunday being flooded by the rising water. The massive wind field around the once violent Typhoon with winds gusting up to 300kph drove walls over water ashore not only causing flooding but also large waves hitting the cliff sides on the South China Sea facing coastlines.(Image Left)

The storms exact location of landfall is near Hudong Harbor in Guangdong. A far less populated area of the china coastline than the Hong Kong Macau metropolitan area.

Typhoon strength is very well possible still in the city

Waves Crashing Ashore in HK

Waves Crashing Ashore in HKof Hong Kong through the over night hours as Usagi tracks inland north of Hong Kong moving right over the Metro area of Guangzhou.  The strongest winds will likely be in areas surrounding Victoria Harbor just prior to midnight as Usagi makes its closest approach.

Conditions will gradually improve through Monday morning yet many business may still remain closed as Usagi pulls west or at least open late for those in the Hong Kong area. By Monday afternoon winds will have decreased but cloudy skies and isolated to scattered showers are still possible through Tuesday.

Typhoon Usagi has already caused problems in Taiwan and the Philippines on Saturday through Sunday Morning. Two deaths and two people are still missing in the Philippines and winds up to 172kph were reported in Lanmyu island in Taiwan.

The winds are just the start of the impacts this storm brought to Taiwan and the Philippines on Saturday.

A resulting storm surge hit the southern coast of Taiwan causing coastal and low lying flooding (footage below) while in the Philippines at least three tornadoes have been reported in Bago City and Bacolod damaging homes and injuring at least one.

Please take a moment to watch the footage below. It puts the full force of this storm in to perspective. Remember this was still nearly 100km removed from the inner eye wall.

Downed Tree in Hong Kong

Downed Tree in Hong Kong

As per GMA NEWS TV report at 11AM earlier, the congresswoman of Batanes reports the Basco Airport Tower instruments sustained significant damage, including cell cites, power transmission lines and even water pipes. Itbayat and Batan Islands are without power and potable water with many houses unroofed in Basco and populated communities of Itbayat and nearby islands. The islands were hit head on by Typhoon Usagi and although no deaths reported, damage was quite significant all over especially to agricultural crops. They say its the strongest they had in 25 years. The Ivatans (people of Batanes) are accustomed to strong typhoons since then but many were overwhelmed by ODETTE’s fury

Also in the Philippines the enhanced monsoon wrapping around Usagi and a new storm Pabuk has been causing heavy rainfall in the Metro Manila area most of the day on Sunday. With the new storm moving north this week it does not look like the heavy rains will be ending anytime soon bringing the risk of flooding to the Manila area and surrounding provinces.

* I (G: westernpacificweather) apologize for the choppy way this update was put together. It is the latest information as of midnight. Monday morning a full update will be put in place. Please check the front page for the most recent updates from throughout the weekend. If you have any useful information to add please leave it as a comment.

Westpacwx does not have paid reports in the field so our number source for information is from you the reader. Thanks for the help.

Sat Image

See also:

Typhoon Usagi Makes landfall nearly 200km East of Hong Kong (Link)

“-
westernpacificweather

MARITIME

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 RJTD 221500
WARNING 221500.
WARNING VALID 231500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1319 USAGI (1319) 955 HPA
AT 23.0N 114.6E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 23.6N 112.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 24.0N 110.3E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

News Reports

 

Powerful Typhoon Usagi heads to Hong Kong

BBC

 

People watch as a storm surge hits the shores as Typhoon Usagi approaches Xiamen, Fujian province High tides are expected in many coastal areas

 

Related Stories

 

Hong Kong is bracing itself for the arrival of typhoon Usagi, which is expected to be the strongest storm to hit the city in more than 30 years.

 

Officials have suspended activity at the port – one of the world’s busiest – and cancelled most flights.

 

In mainland China thousands of boats in the Pearl River Delta have been taken inland due to fears of high tides.

 

At least two people were killed by the storm as it crossed the Luzon Strait between Taiwan and the Philippines.

Highest alert

Usagi – which means rabbit in Japanese – packed winds of 165 km/h (103 mph) as it closed in on China’s densely populated Pearl River Delta.

 

China’s National Meteorological Centre has issued its highest alert, warning that Usagi would bring gales and downpours to parts of the southern coast, according to Xinhua news agency.

 

More than 80,000 people have moved to safer ground in Fujian province, Xinhua said, and the authorities in Guangdong have asked more than 44,000 fishing boats to return to port.

 

Technicians at the Guangdong nuclear plant have been trying to ensure the installation is secure ahead of the typhoon.

 

Many airlines have cancelled flights to cities in Guangdong and Fujian, and shipping has been suspended between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan, Xinhua reported.

 

In Hong Kong, meteorologists are warning of severe floods due to powerful winds and exceptionally high tides.

 

The Hong Kong Observatory warned of “severe” disruption to the city.

 

If the situation does not improve soon, many businesses including the stock exchange will be shut on Monday.

 

Projected path of typhoon Usagi, 20 September 2013

 

En route to Hong Kong and southern China, Usagi forced the evacuation of more than 3,000 people in southern Taiwan.

 

It also hit the northernmost islands of the Philippines, where it cut communication and power lines and triggered landslides.

 

Typhoons are common during the summer in parts of East Asia, where the warm moist air and low pressure conditions enable tropical cyclones to form.

Filipino (Translated by Google)

Tropical bagyo ( Typhoon ) USAGI / ODETTE

Typhoon USAGI / ODETTE GINAWA pagtanaw sa lupain MALAPIT
SHANWEI , China ( JTWC )

( Mag-scroll pababa para sa Filipino at Chinese translation ) ( rebista – scroll pababa Para Sa Pilipino sa Chinese translation )
(向下 滚动 菲律宾 和 中国 翻译)

( Image: wunderground.com ) Satellite ( I-click ang larawan para sa pinagmulan )

( Image: wunderground.com ) 5 Araw na Pagtataya ( I-click ang larawan para sa pinagmulan )
PAGASA – DOST Philippine Atmospheric , geopisiko at Astronomical Services Administration ( PAGASA – DOST )

Quezon City , PILIPINAS pagasa.dost.gov.ph

Sa ngayon , walang mga tropikal na bagyo umiiral sa loob ng Philippine Area ng responsibilidad ( par ) .

Para sa karagdagang impormasyon at mga query , mag-log on sa http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph o mangyaring tumawag sa mga numero ng telepono 927-1335 at 927-2877
Hapon

Japan meteorolohiko ahensiya
1319TY 1319 ( USAGI )
Ibinigay sa 16:10 UTC , Septiyembre 22, 2013
<Analyses Sa 22/15 UTC>
Scale –
intensity Malakas
Center posisyon N23 00 ‘( 23.0 )
E114 35 ‘( 114.6 )
Direksyon at ang bilis ng paggalaw KTK 20km / h ( 12kt )
Central presyon 955hPa
Maximum na bilis ng hangin malapit sa sentro 35m / s ( 70kt )
Maximum na hangin bugso ng hangin bilis 50m / s ( 100kt )
Lugar ng 50kt hangin o higit pa ALL170km ( 90NM )
Lugar ng 30kt hangin o higit pa NE500km ( 270NM )
SW390km ( 210NM )
<Forecast Para 23/03 UTC>
intensity –
Center posisyon ng probabilidad bilog N23 35 ‘( 23.6 )
E112 20 ‘( 112.3 )
Direksyon at ang bilis ng paggalaw KTK 20km / h ( 11kt )
Central presyon 980hPa
Maximum na napapanatiling hangin bilis 25m / s ( 50kt )
Maximum na hangin bugso ng hangin bilis 35m / s ( 70kt )
Ang radius ng bilog na posibilidad 90km ( 50NM )
<Forecast Para sa 23/15 UTC>
intensity –
Center posisyon ng probabilidad bilog N24 00 ‘( 24.0 )
E110 20 ‘( 110.3 )
Direksyon at ang bilis ng paggalaw W 15km / h ( 9kt )
Central presyon 996hPa
Maximum na napapanatiling hangin bilis 18m / s ( 35kt )
Maximum na hangin bugso ng hangin bilis 25m / s ( 50kt )
Ang radius ng bilog na posibilidad 130km ( 70NM )
<Forecast Para sa 24/12 UTC>
intensity –
td
Center posisyon ng probabilidad bilog N23 25 ‘( 23.4 )
E107 30 ‘( 107.5 )
Direksyon at ang bilis ng paggalaw W 15km / h ( 7kt )
Central presyon 1002hPa
Ang radius ng bilog na posibilidad 200km ( 110NM )
Pinagsamang Typhoon Warning Center ( JTWC )

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 221,500

MSGID / GENADMIN / joint Typhoon WRNCEN Pearl Harbor HI / /
Paksa / tropikal na bagyo BABALA / /
RMKS /
1 . Typhoon 17W ( USAGI ) BABALA NR 024 ( huling babala )
02 ACTIVE tropikal CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX napapanatiling hangin BATAY SA ONE – MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII MAHIGIT SA BISA OPEN WATER ONLY

BABALA POSITION :
221200Z — MALAPIT 22.9N 115.2E
Kilusan NAKARAANG IKAANIM HOURS – 290 DEGREES SA 16 KTS
POSITION TUMPAK SA LOOB 020 NM
POSITION BATAY SA SENTRO matatagpuan pamamagitan ng kumbinasyon ng
SATELLITE AT radar
IPINAPAKITA WIND pamamahagi:
MAX napapanatiling hangin – 080 KT , GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII MAHIGIT SA BISA OPEN WATER ONLY
Ulitin ipagpalagay : 22.9N 115.2E

pagtataya :
12 oras , BISA SA :
230000Z — 23.6N 112.6E
MAX napapanatiling hangin – 055 KT , GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII MAHIGIT SA BISA OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS isang makabuluhang tropikal na bagyo MAHIGIT lupa
Vector TO 24 HR ipagpalagay : 285 DEG / 11 KTS

24 oras , BISA SA :
231200Z — 24.2N 110.3E
MAX napapanatiling hangin – 035 KT , GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII MAHIGIT SA BISA OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS isang makabuluhang tropikal na bagyo MAHIGIT lupa
Vector TO 36 HR ipagpalagay : 265 DEG / 07 KTS

36 oras , BISA SA :
240000Z — 24.0N 108.7E
MAX napapanatiling hangin – 020 KT , GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII MAHIGIT SA BISA OPEN WATER ONLY
AS pang-anyaya ng isang makabuluhang tropikal na bagyo MAHIGIT lupa

REMARKS :
221500Z POSITION MALAPIT 23.1N 114.6E .
Typhoon 17W ( USAGI ) , na matatagpuan sa halos 66 NM silangan – hilagang-silangan NG
Hong Kong , AY nasubaybayan WEST – pahilagang-kanluran SA 16 buhol MAHIGIT SA NAKARAANG
IKAANIM HOURS . Animated infrared satellite imagery at Composite Radar
Umikot mula sa Hong Kong ipahiwatig ANG SYSTEM AY GINAWA pagtanaw sa lupain MALAPIT
SHANWEI , China . Ang paunang POSITION AY NAKABATAY SA MGA nabanggit
Animation SA mataas na kumpiyansa. Ang paunang intensity IS
EXTRAPOLATED MULA SA Dvorak pagtantya MULA RJTD . Ty USAGI AY EXPECTED
SA mabilis na pagkabulok AS IT DRAGS pakanluran sa buong kulubot Tsino
Interior at mapawi NG Tau 36 . Ito ay ang panghuling BABALA SA ITO
SYSTEM NG joint Typhoon WRNCEN Pearl Harbor HI . ANG SYSTEM AY
MAGIGING malapit na sinusubaybayan PARA senyales ng muling pagpasok OPEN SA TUBIG . / /
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TSR logoNW Pacific : Storm Alert na ibinigay sa Septiyembre 21, 2013 12:00 GMT

HK Pacific : Storm Alert na ibinigay sa Septiyembre 22, 2013 00:00 GMT ( Huling Babala )

Typhoon USAGI ( 17W ) kasalukuyang matatagpuan malapit 22.9 N 115.2 E ay ​​magtaya upang hampasin lupa sa sumusunod na posibilidad ( s ) sa naibigay na oras ng lead (s):

Red Alert Bansa (mga) o Probinsya ( s )
Tsina
posibilidad para sa CAT 1 o sa itaas ay 100 % sa kasalukuyan
posibilidad para sa TS ay 100 % sa kasalukuyan
Hong Kong
posibilidad para sa CAT 1 o sa itaas ay 80 % sa loob ng 12 oras
posibilidad para sa TS ay 100 % sa kasalukuyan
Red Alert City ( s ) at Town ( s )
Guangzhou ( 23.1 N , 113.3 E)
posibilidad para sa CAT 1 o sa itaas ay 50% sa loob ng 12 oras
posibilidad para sa TS ay 85 % sa loob ng 12 oras
Hong Kong ( 22.4 N , 114.2 E)
posibilidad para sa CAT 1 o sa itaas ay 50% sa loob ng 12 oras
posibilidad para sa TS ay 95% sa kasalukuyan

Yellow Alert Bansa (mga) o Probinsya ( s )
Macau
posibilidad para sa CAT 1 o sa itaas ay 10% sa loob ng 12 oras
posibilidad para sa TS ay 85 % sa loob ng 12 oras
Yellow Alert City ( s ) at Town ( s )
Shantou ( 23.0 N , 116.2 E)
posibilidad para sa TS ay 95% sa kasalukuyan

Tandaan na ang
Red Alert ( Matinding ) ay CAT 1 o sa itaas sa pagitan ng 31 % at 100% na posibilidad .
Yellow Alert ( malayog ) ay CAT 1 o sa itaas sa pagitan ng 10 % at 30% na posibilidad , o TS sa itaas 50 % posibilidad .
CAT 1 ay nangangahulugan ng Typhoon hangin lakas ng hindi bababa sa 74 mph , 119 km / h o 64 mga buhol – 1 min matagal .
TS nangangahulugan Tropical Storm hangin lakas ng hindi bababa sa 39 mph , 63 km / h o 34 mga buhol – 1 min matagal .

Para sa mga graphical forecast impormasyon at higit pang mga detalye mangyaring bisitahin http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
Typhoon Usagi Hatinggabi Update North Ng Hong Kong
Nai-publish sa Septiyembre 22, 2013 sa pamamagitan ng robspeta sa Uncategorized

Typhoon Usagi ginawa pagtanaw sa lupain sa paligid ng 1730 na Oras Hong Kong halos 200km silangan ng lungsod. Simula noon bagyo ang nagsimula pagkuha ng isang galing sa kanluran track sa hilaga ng Hong Kong nagdadala napapanatiling hangin sa pagitan ng 90- 95kph sa loob ng ilang peak sa hilaga ng Hong Kong Island . Malapit sa downtown area na hangin sa Star Ferry na naitala ng hanggang 75kph bago ang hatinggabi . Ito ay nagdulot ng maraming mga ulat ng nasira mga karatula , mga billboard at din magpakawala mga labi na tossed tungkol sa .

Bagyo paggulong ng alon sa Shantou

Bagyo paggulong ng alon sa Shantou

Ang isang tren ay bumangga sa isang downed puno sa Hong Kong sa pamamagitan ng late na oras gabi . Ito ay mabilis na malutas .

Linggo Afternoon sa pagbaha

Shantou ay din na nakikita sa mababang nakahiga coastal area. Shantou ay isang lungsod sa silangan ng Hong Kong sa eastern Guangdong . Larawan sa Itaas

Maraming mga istraktura na ipinapakita sa imahe sa Linggo na malaki ang tubig sa pamamagitan ng tumataas ang tubig . Ang napakalaking field na hangin sa paligid ng isang beses marahas Typhoon may hangin gusting hanggang 300kph ay nagdulot pader sa ibabaw ng tubig sa pampang hindi lamang nagiging sanhi ng pagbaha ngunit din malaking waves pagpindot sa mga gilid talampas sa South China Sea nakaharap coastlines . ( Image Left )

Ang bagyo eksaktong lokasyon ng pagtanaw sa lupain ay malapit Hudong Harbor sa Guangdong . Ang isang malayo mas populated na lugar ng china kaysa sa baybay-dagat ng lugar sa Hong Kong Macau metropolitan .

Typhoon lakas ay napaka rin posible pa rin sa lungsod

Waves Pag-crash sa pampang sa HK

Waves Pag-crash sa pampang HKof sa Hong Kong sa pamamagitan ng paglipas ng oras gabi bilang Usagi sumusubaybay sa loob ng bansa sa hilaga ng Hong Kong paglipat karapatan sa ibabaw ng Metro area ng Guangzhou . Ang pinakamatibay na mga hangin ay malamang na maging sa mga lugar na nakapalibot Victoria Harbor lang bago ang hatinggabi bilang Usagi gumagawa nito pinakamalapit na diskarte.

Kundisyon na ito ay unti-unting mapabuti sa pamamagitan ng Lunes ng umaga pa maraming negosyo ay maaari pa ring manatili sarado bilang Usagi pulls kanluran o hindi bababa sa bukas late para sa mga nasa lugar ng Hong Kong . Sa pamamagitan ng hapon Lunes hangin ay ay bumaba ngunit maulap na kalangitan at nakahiwalay na nakakalat sa shower ay posible pa rin sa pamamagitan ng Martes.

Typhoon Usagi Na sanhi problema sa Taiwan at sa Pilipinas sa Sabado hanggang Linggo Morning. Dalawang pagkamatay at dalawang tao pa rin ang nawawala sa Pilipinas at mga hangin up sa 172kph ay naiulat sa Lanmyu isla sa Taiwan .

Ang mga hangin ay lamang sa simula ng epekto bagyo ito dinadala sa Taiwan at sa Pilipinas sa Sabado .

Isang nagreresulta paggulong bagyo hit sa katimugang baybayin ng Taiwan nagdudulot ng coastal at mababa namamalagi pagbaha ( footage sa ibaba) habang sa Pilipinas ng hindi bababa sa tatlong mga tornadoes naiulat sa Bago City at Bacolod damaging mga tahanan at injuring ng hindi bababa sa isa .

Mangyaring maglaan ng isang sandali upang panoorin ang footage sa ibaba . Ito ay naglalagay ang buong puwersa ng bagyo in sa pananaw. Tandaan ang noon ay pa rin halos 100km inalis mula sa panloob na dingding mata .

Downed Tree sa Hong Kong

Downed Tree sa Hong Kong

Alinsunod sa GMA ulat BALITA TV sa 11:00 kanina, ang congresswoman ng Batanes nag-uulat ang Basco Airport Tower instrumento matagal makabuluhang pinsala , kabilang ang mga cell cites , kapangyarihan transmisyon mga linya at kahit na water pipe . Itbayat at Batan Islands ay walang kapangyarihan at naiinom tubig na may maraming mga bahay unroofed sa Basco at populated na mga komunidad ng Itbayat at mga kalapit na isla . Ang isla ay pindutin ang ulo sa pamamagitan ng Typhoon Usagi at bagama’t walang naiulat na pagkamatay , pinsala ay lubos na makabuluhan sa lahat ng dako lalo na sa agrikultura mga pananim . Sabi nila nito ang pinakamatibay na sila ay nagkaroon sa 25 taon . Ang Ivatans ( mga tao ng Batanes ) ay sanay na sa malakas typhoons mula noon ngunit marami ay nalulula ka sa ODETTE ng matinding galit

Gayundin sa Pilipinas ang mga pinahusay na wrapping monsoon sa paligid Usagi at isang bagong Pabuk bagyo ay nagdudulot ng matinding pag-ulan sa lugar ng Metro Manila karamihan ng araw sa Linggo. Gamit ang bagong bagyo gumagalaw hilaga ito linggo ito ay hindi hitsura ang mabibigat na umuulan ay nagtatapos anumang oras sa lalong madaling panahon nagdadala ng panganib ng pagbaha sa Manila area at nakapaligid na probinsya .

* Ko ( G : westernpacificweather ) ay humihingi ng paumanhin para sa mga pabagu-bago paraan update na ito ay magkasama . Ito ay ang pinakabagong impormasyon sa bilang ng hatinggabi . Lunes ng umaga ang isang buong pag-update ay ilalagay sa lugar . Paki-check ang front page para sa pinakakamakailang mga update mula sa buong weekend . Kung mayroon kang anumang mga kapaki-pakinabang na impormasyon upang magdagdag mangyaring mag-iwan ito bilang isang komento .

Westpacwx ay walang bayad na mga ulat sa patlang sa gayon ang aming numero mapagkukunan ng impormasyon ay mula sa iyo ang mga mambabasa . Salamat para sa tulong.

Sab Larawan

Tingnan din ang :
Typhoon Usagi Gumagawa pagtanaw sa lupain halos 200km East ng Hong Kong ( Link)

“-
westernpacificweather
malapit sa dagat
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 RJTD 221,500
BABALA 221,500 .
BABALA BISA 231,500 .
Typhoon BABALA .
Typhoon 1319 USAGI ( 1319 ) 955 HPA
SA 23.0N 114.6E South China gumagalaw WESTNORTHWEST 12 buhol .
Magandang posisyon .
MAX hangin 70 buhol MALAPIT SA CENTER .
Radius ng MAHIGIT 50 na hangin umpukan 90 milya.
Radius ng MAHIGIT 30 na hangin umpukan 270 milya mula sa hilagang-silangan kalahati ng bilog AT 210
Milya sa ibang lugar.
Pagtataya POSITION PARA SA 230300UTC 23.6N 112.3E MAY 50 milya radius
NG 70 PERCENT CIRCLE posibilidad .
980 HPA , MAX hangin 50 buhol .
Pagtataya POSITION PARA SA 231500UTC 24.0N 110.3E MAY 70 milya radius
NG 70 PERCENT CIRCLE posibilidad .
996 HPA , MAX hangin 35 buhol .

Japan meteorolohiko AGENCY . =
News Reports

Napakahusay na Typhoon Usagi ulo sa Hong Kong

BBC Septiyembre 22, 2013 Huling na-update sa 10:48 BST ( 0948Z GMT / UTC)
Mga tao panoorin bilang isang bagyo paggulong ng alon hit sa baybayin ng Typhoon Usagi nalalapit sa Xiamen , Fujian lalawigan High Tides ay inaasahan sa maraming coastal area
Magpatuloy pagbabasa ang pangunahing kuwento
Kaugnay na Mga Kuwento

Usagi : 2013 ni pinakamakapangyarihang bagyo Watch
Philippine bagyo displaces libo-libo
Typhoon Soulik hangin isuga Taiwan

Hong Kong ay nakapagpapalakas mismo para sa pagdating ng bagyo Usagi , na kung saan ay inaasahan na maging ang pinakamatibay na bagyo na matumbok ang lungsod sa higit sa 30 taon .

Opisyal sinuspinde aktibidad sa port – isa sa mga pinaka-abalang ng mundo – at kinansela pinaka- flight.

Sa mainland China libu-libong mga bangka sa Pearl River Delta ay kinuha sa loob ng bansa dahil sa takot ng mataas Tides .

Hindi bababa sa dalawang mga tao ay namatay sa pamamagitan ng mga bagyo bilang ito tumawid ang Kipot ng Luzon sa pagitan ng Taiwan at Pilipinas .
pinakamataas na alerto

Usagi – na ang ibig sabihin ng kuneho sa Hapon – naka-pack na hangin ng 165 km / h ( 103 mph ) bilang ito sarado sa sa China nang makapal populated na Pearl River Delta .

China Pambansang meteorolohiko Centre ay ibinigay nito pinakamataas na alerto, paalaala na ang Usagi gusto magdala gales at downpours sa mga bahagi ng sa katimugang baybayin , ayon sa Xinhua balita ahensiya .

Mahigit sa 80,000 tao ang inilipat sa mas ligtas na lupa sa Fujian lalawigan , Xinhua sinabi, at ang mga awtoridad sa Guangdong ay humingi ng higit sa 44,000 mga bangka pangingisda upang bumalik sa port .

Technicians sa planta Guangdong nuclear ay sinusubukan upang matiyak ang pag-install ay ligtas nang mas maaga ang bagyo .

Maraming airlines na kinansela flight sa mga lungsod sa Guangdong at Fujian , at pagpapadala ay nasuspinde sa pagitan ng Chinese mainland at Taiwan , Xinhua iniulat .

Sa Hong Kong , meteorologists ang mga babala ng matinding baha dahil sa malakas na hangin at iba mataas Tides .

Ang Hong Kong Observatory binalaan ng ” malubhang ” pagka-antala sa lungsod.

Kung ang sitwasyon ay hindi mapabuti sa lalong madaling panahon , maraming mga negosyo kabilang ang mga stock exchange ay shut sa Lunes .
Inaasahang landas ng bagyo Usagi , 20 Set 2013

En ruta sa Hong Kong at southern China , Usagi sapilitang ang paglisan ng higit sa 3,000 katao sa katimugang Taiwan .

Mayroon din pindutin ang kahila-hilagaan isla ng Pilipinas , kung saan ito i-cut mga linya ng komunikasyon at kapangyarihan at nag-trigger sa landslides .

Typhoons ay karaniwan sa panahon ng tag-araw sa mga bahagi ng Silangang Asya , kung saan ang mga mainit-init mahalumigmig hangin at mababang presyon kundisyon paganahin tropikal cyclones sa form.

Chinese (Translated by Google)

熱帶氣旋(颱風) USAGI / ODETTE

颱風USAGI / ODETTE附近登陸
汕尾,中國(聯合颱風警報中心)

(向下滾動菲律賓和中國翻譯) (磁渦旋pababa第一個菲律賓人在中國翻譯)
(向下滾動菲律賓和中國翻譯)

(圖片提供: wunderground.com )衛星(點擊圖片來源)

(圖片: wunderground.com )五天天氣預報(點擊圖片源)
PAGASA外輪理貨菲律賓大氣,地球物理和天文服務管理( PAGASA -外輪理貨)

奎松市,菲律賓pagasa.dost.gov.ph

截至今天為止,有沒有熱帶氣旋在菲律賓責任區( PAR )存在。

欲了解更多信息和查詢,登錄到www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph電話號碼或請致電927-1335和927-2877
日本

日本氣象廳
1319TY 1319 ( USAGI )
16:10 UTC , 2013年9月22日發行
<Analyses在15分之22 UTC>
秤 –
強度強
中心位置N23 00 ‘ (23.0 )
E114 35′ (114.6 )
方向和速度運動西北20公里每小時( 12克拉)
中心氣壓955hPa
附近的中心35M / s的最大風速( 70克拉)
最大陣風速度50M / s的(百克拉)
區的風50克拉或更多ALL170km ( 90NM )
區或更多30克拉風NE500km的(波長270nm )
SW390km ( 210NM )
<Forecast為23/03 UTC>
強度 –
中心位置的概率圓N23 35’ ( 23.6 )
E112 20 ‘ (112.3 )
方向和速度運動西北20公里每小時( 11克拉)
中心氣壓980hPa
最大持續風速25M / s的( 50克拉)
最大陣風速度35M / s的( 70克拉)
半徑概率圓90公里( 50NM )
<Forecast為十五分之二十三UTC>
強度 –
概率圈的中心位置N24 00 ‘ ( 24.0 )
E110 20 ‘ (110.3 )
方向和速度運動W 15公里/小時( 9克拉)
中心氣壓996hPa
最大持續風速18m / s的( 35克拉)
最大陣風線速度25m / s的( 50克拉)
半徑概率圓130公里( 70納米)
<Forecast為十二分之二十四UTC>
強度 –
TD
概率圈的中心位置, N23 25’ ( 23.4 )
E107 30 ‘ (107.5 )
方向和速度運動W 15公里/小時( 7克拉)
中央壓力1002hPa
半徑概率圓200公里( 110NM )
聯合颱風警報中心( JTWC )

谷歌地球圖形疊加

WTPN32 PGTW 221500

,MSGID / GENADMIN的的/合營號颱風 WRNCEN 珍珠港HI / /
的SUBJ /熱帶氣旋警告/ /
RMKS /
1。颱風17W ( USAGI )警告NR 024(最後的警告)
02個活躍的熱帶氣旋NORTHWESTPAC
基於一分鐘平均最大持續風速
風半徑僅在開放的水有效

警告位置:
221200Z —近22.9N 115.2E
運動過去六小時 – 290度16 KTS
位置精確到020海裡內
基於位置的組合中心
衛星和雷達
目前風分佈:
最大持續風速 – 080 KT ,陣風100 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
重複POSIT : 22.9N 115.2E

預測:
12小時,有效的:
230000Z — 23.6N 112.6E
最大持續風速 – 055 KT ,陣風070 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在土地消散
向量POSIT至24小時: 285度/ 11 KTS

24小時,有效的:
231200Z — 24.2N 110.3E
最大持續風速 – 035 KT ,陣風045 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在土地消散
矢量36小時POSIT : 265度/ 07 KTS

36小時,有效的:
240000Z — 24.0N 108.7E
最大持續風速 – 020 KT ,陣風030 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在土地消耗

備註:
23.1N 114.6E 221500Z位置附近。
颱風17W ( USAGI ) ,位於東北偏東約66海裡
香港,跟踪西北偏西以16節的速度在過去
六個小時。動畫紅外衛星圖像和複合雷達
香港環路指示系統附近登陸
汕尾,中國。基於上述初始位置
動畫與高可信度。初始強度
德沃夏克估計從RJTD的推斷。預計TY USAGI
迅速腐爛,因為它拖動向西穿過崎嶇的中國
內飾和頭36消散。這是最後的警告
系統按聯合颱風WRNCEN的珍珠港HI 。該系統將
密切監測再次進入開放水域的跡象。 / /

TSR logoNW太平洋風暴警報21九月發行, 2013 12:00 GMT

西北太平洋風暴警報22九月發行, 2013 12:00 GMT (最後警告)

颱風USAGI ( 17W )目前位於22.9東經115.2 ê附近預計取得土地以下的可能性(次) ,在給定的領先時間(s) :

紅色警戒國家(S)或省( S )
中國
CAT 1或以上的概率為100 % ,目前
為TS的概率是100 % ,目前
香港
CAT 1或以上的概率是80 %在12小時內
為TS的概率是100 % ,目前
紅色警戒市(s)和鎮(S )
廣州(23.1 N,東經113.3度)
CAT 1或以上的概率是50 %在12小時內
變性人的概率是85 %在12小時內
香港(22.4 N, 114.2 ê )
CAT 1或以上的概率是50 %在12小時內
變性人的概率是95 % ,目前

黃色警示國家(S)或省( S )
澳門
CAT 1或以上的概率是10%,在12小時內
變性人的概率是85 %在12小時內
黃色警報城(s)和鎮(S )
汕頭市(北緯23.0東經116.2 ê )
變性人的概率是95 % ,目前

需要注意的是
紅色警報(嚴重)是CAT 1或以上至31%和100 %的概率。
黃色警戒(升高)是CAT 1或以上的介於10%和30 %的概率,或者在50%以上的概率。
CAT 1意味著颱風強度至少74英里的風,119公里/小時或每小時64海裡,持續1分鐘。
TS意味著至少39英里的熱帶風暴強度的風, 63公里每小時34節1分鐘持續。

對於圖形的預測信息和進一步詳情,請訪問http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
颱風天兔午夜更新香港以北
2013年9月22由robspeta未發布

兔颱風登陸, 1730年左右,香港時間近200公里的東部城市。自那時以來,風暴開始在香港島北部的幾個峰之間帶來持續風速90 – 95kph香港北部向西移動。天星碼頭附近鬧市區風已記錄的至75kph午夜之前。這就造成了損壞的招牌,廣告牌的許多報告和鬆散的碎片被扔約。

汕頭市風暴潮

汕頭市風暴潮

通過深夜,一列火車相撞,被擊倒的樹在香港。這很快得到了解決。

週日下午水浸

汕頭也被看作低窪沿海地區。汕頭是一個城市在香港以東粵東。圖像上

許多結構已經顯示在圖像上週日被漲水淹沒。大規模風場的一次猛烈的颱風,陣風可達300kph開車過水牆不僅造成水浸,但也大波擊中懸崖雙方就中國南海,海岸線面臨上岸(圖左)

風暴登陸的確切位置是滬東廣東港附近。遠人口較少的地區,中國的海岸線比港澳都市圈。

颱風的強度是非常有可能仍然在城市

海浪在香港上岸

海浪上岸在HKof香港兔通過在夜間的幾個小時跟踪內陸香港以北向右移動在地鐵廣州地區。 最強的風勢可能會在維多利亞港周邊地區午夜之前兔使得其最接近。

條件將逐步提高到週一早晨,兔拉西部,很多業務可能仍然保持關閉或至少對那些在香港地區的營業至深夜。在週一下午的風已經減少,但仍然有可能通過週二陰天零星陣雨和孤立。

兔颱風在台灣和菲律賓的問題已經引起週六至週日Morning.兩人死亡,兩人仍下落不明台灣在Lanmyu島在菲律賓和風速可達172kph 。

風上週六,這場風暴帶來了台灣和菲律賓的影響僅僅是一個開始。

導致風暴潮打造成台灣南部海岸的沿海和低窪水浸(下面的片段) ,而在菲律賓至少有三個龍捲風已報導巴戈市和巴科洛德破壞的家園,打傷至少一個。

請花點時間看下面的畫面。透視這場風暴的全部力量。記住,這是近100公里,從內眼牆去除。

在香港被擊落的樹

在香港被擊落的樹

每GMA新聞電視報導,在上午11時前,巴丹眾議員報告巴斯科塔台儀器持續的重大損害,包括細胞CITES ,輸電線路,甚至水管。 Itbayat巴坦群島與無頂在巴斯科與人口稠密的社區的Itbayat及附近島嶼的許多房屋沒有電力和飲用水。島嶼被擊中頭兔颱風,雖然沒有死亡的報導,損害是相當顯著的,尤其是農作物。他們說其最強的,他們曾在25年。習慣於強颱風的Ivatans (巴丹)從那時起,但許多人不堪重負ODETTE的憤怒

此外,在菲律賓增強季風包繞兔和一個新的風暴帕布已造成強降雨在大馬尼拉區最多的一天上週日。隨著新風暴向北移動這個星期它看起來並不像大雨很快將結束馬尼拉地區及周邊省份的洪水帶來的風險。

*我( G: westernpacificweather )波濤洶湧的這種更新方式被放在一起道歉。午夜是最新的信息。星期一早上,一個完整的更新將落實到位。從整個週末的最新更新,請在頭版。如果您有任何有用的信息進行添加,請把它作為註釋。

Westpacwx沒有在該領域的薪酬報告,所以我們的信息來源是從你的讀者。感謝您的幫助。

星期六圖片

另請參閱:
兔颱風登陸香港的近200公里的東(鏈接)


westernpacificweather
海事
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 RJTD 221500
警告221500 。
警告有效231500 。
颱風警報。
颱風1319 USAGI (1319) 955 HPA
AT 23.0N 114.6E南中國移動西北偏西12海裡。
POSITION不錯。
中心附近最大風70節。
超過50節的風速90英里的半徑。
超過30個結風半徑270英里東北半圓和210
MILES ELSEWHERE 。
預測位置在50英里半徑23.6N 112.3E 230300UTC
70 %的概率圓。
980百帕,最大風50節。
預測位置在70英里半徑24.0N 110.3E 231500UTC
70 %的概率圓。
996百帕,最大風35海裡。

日本氣象廳。
新聞報導

強大的颱風天兔朝向香港

英國廣播公司2013年9月22日最後更新於10:48 BST ( 0948Z GMT / UTC )
人們看作為風暴潮颱風天兔到達岸邊接近廈門,福建省漲潮預計將在許多沿海地區
繼續閱讀主要的故事
相關的故事

兔: 2013最強大的颱風手錶
菲律賓風暴取代數千
颱風蘇力風睫毛台灣

香港本身是支撐兔颱風的到來,預計將在超過30年來最強勁颱風襲城。

官員已經暫停活動在港口 – 世界上最繁忙的之一 – 取消大部分航班。

在中國大陸已經採取了成千上萬的船在珠三角內陸由於漲潮的擔憂。

穿過台灣和菲律賓之間的呂宋海峽的風暴,因為它至少有兩個人被打死。
最高警戒

兔 – 這意味著兔子在日本 – 盒裝風速165公里/小時( 103英里) ,因為它關閉了在中國人口密集的珠江三角洲。

中國國家氣象中心已發布最高警戒,警告,兔將帶來大風和暴雨,南部沿海的部分,根據新華社。

超過80,000人已轉移到安全地帶福建省,新華社的報導說,廣東省當局已要求超過44000艘漁船返回港口。

廣東核電廠的技術人員一直在努力,以確保安裝安全颱風提前。

新華社報導,多家航空公司取消航班,在廣東和福建的城市,中國大陸和台灣之間的航運已暫停。

在香港,氣象學家警告,嚴重的洪澇災害,由於強風和非常高的潮汐。

香港天文台警告稱, 嚴重影響城市。

如果情況沒有改善,很快,許多企業,包括證券交易所週一將休市。
預計2013年9月20日,颱風天兔路徑

途中香港和中國南部,兔被迫疏散3000餘人在台灣南部。

這也創下了菲律賓最北端的島嶼,它切斷通信和電源線,並引發山體滑坡。

颱風是常見的,在暑假期間在東亞部分地區,其中暖濕氣流和低壓條件下,使熱帶氣旋形成。

East China Sea: Tropical Cyclone (TS) 15W Toraji 012100Z 26.3N 125.1E, moving NE at 06 knots – 010913 2335z

Tropical Cyclone (Tropical Storm) 15W Toraji

(Scroll down for Japanese and Korean translation)

(日本語と韓国語の翻訳のためにスクロールダウン)

(일본과 한국 번역 아래로 스크롤)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

(Image: JMA) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: JMA) Japan Radar (Click image for source)

(Image: JMA) Currently valid Warnings/Advisories (Click image for source)

TS 1317 (TORAJI)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 1 September 2013

<Analyses at 01/21 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N26°25′(26.4°)
E125°00′(125.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE Slowly
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 02/21 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N28°05′(28.1°)
E126°40′(126.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slowly
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
<Forecast for 03/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N29°00′(29.0°)
E127°30′(127.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
<Forecast for 04/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N29°35′(29.6°)
E127°40′(127.7°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
<Forecast for 05/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N31°35′(31.6°)
E127°20′(127.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)
<Forecast for 06/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N34°00′(34.0°)
E128°35′(128.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(7kt)
Radius of probability circle 700km(375NM)

Korea Meteorological Administration

 

Typhoon

Forecast Chart

 

No.17 TORAJI

Issued at(KST) : 2013.09.02. 04:30

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2013.09.01. 18:00 Analysis 26.3 124.8 1000 18 65 150 Weak Small NE 8
2013.09.02. 18:00 Forecast 27.6 126.5 994 21 76 170 Weak Small NE 9 140
2013.09.03. 18:00 Forecast 28.3 127.4 990 24 86 200 Weak Small NE 5 230
2013.09.04. 18:00 Forecast 29.1 127.7 990 24 86 200 Weak Small NNE 4 320
2013.09.05. 18:00 Forecast 30.1 127.4 992 22 79 180 Weak Small NNW 5 460
2013.09.06. 18:00 Forecast 31.3 127.7 996 19 68 150 Weak Small NNE 6 550

 

※ It is provided only for the typhoon information in progress. The past information could be found in National Typhoon Center homepage.

☞ National Typhoon Center Homepage

 

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC Warning Text (Click image for source)

WTPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002  
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
011800Z — NEAR 26.1N 124.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 070 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 26.1N 124.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z — 27.0N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z — 28.0N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 28.5N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z — 29.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 30.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z — 32.0N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z — 35.0N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 26.3N 125.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 163 NM
WEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z
IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.//
NNNN

Westpacwx: Tropical Storm Toraji developing near Taiwan 台風17( Sunday Night Update)

Published on September 1, 2013 by // westernpacificweather

“Taiwan is finally starting to see a slight decrease in the amount of rain occurring across across the island today following over 1,300mm of recorded rainfall since Friday. Since has led to three casualties and numerous reports of flooding in landslides. Incredible footage of one of these landslides can be found at this link. Note at the start of the video you can actually see the top of the mountain give way.

GFS OUTLOOK

GFS OUTLOOK

Now a new threat is already looming in the East China Sea. This new low pressure area is forming in the wake of Kong-rey feeding off the energy the storm left behind as it was sheared off and driven north by a potent cold front that pushed in to Japan and is still impacting much of the country on Sunday.

This new storm is still in its early stages of development but given the information available it will likely track north of Okinawa in a similar path as Kong-rey to the north east. Yet there will be a massive difference between this storm and Kong-rey. The forward momentum will be much much slower due to the weakening of the upper level trough over Japan and the potential for a high pressure ridge to block the storms path northward.

Therego at this time a lingering storm in the East China Sea is very well possible. If this was to occur the dry section of the storm would still remain to the south east over Okinawa resulting in windy conditions with only isolated rain showers. Much like we saw with Kong-rey. While at the same time the JMA and GFS models both suggest Kyushu will be hit with Tropical Storm Strength winds and heavy rainfall through mid-week.  This would add to the already heavy amount of rains that have occurred across Western Japan over the weekend.   The JMA and NAVGEM models also pick up on the storm retrograding back west by mid-week under the influence of the high to the north. If this was to occur yet more heavy rainfall would fall in Taiwan by Wednesday in to Thursday. That still remains uncertain at this time.

What can be said with confidence is that through Tuesday Winds will start to increase in the Southern Japanese islands possibly gusting up to TS strength at times while in Kyushu more heavy rainfall is expected and Tropical Storm strength winds can be anticipated. I dont expect a Typhoon to form given the moderate amount of vertical wind shear in the East China Sea and the Sea Surface Temperatures are slightly cooler than

Tokyo TS; Source NHK

Tokyo TS; Source NHK

normal due to the repeated upwelling from previous tropical systems that have been moving through the area the past  2 weeks.

It does not look like Central Japan will see so much of the heavy rainfall though. This comes as good news as much of Western Kanto was hit by severe storms on Sunday, over 10,000 people lost power through Sunday Evening.

As always this is not official, please check with your local WMO approved agency for official warnings and information.” – westernpacificweather

 MARITIME

China

Forecast up to 24h : Wind, Sea state, Weather, Visibility
GMDSS_METAREA11-IOR_INMARSAT
==========
Caution: NAVIMAIL is not part of the Maritime Safety Information’s
operational data stream and should never be relied upon as the only
means to obtain the latest forecast and warning information. Access
to the service may be interrupted or delayed from time to time,
update may also experience occasional gaps. Please refer to GMDSS
OFFICIAL sources, Inmarsat SafetyNET or international NAVTEX
services, for more complete information
==========

WWCI50 BABJ 011800
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 2215UTC SEP.01 2013=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800UTC SEP. 01=
FORECAST VALID 1800UTC SEP. 02=
WARNNING=
TS YUTU 1002HPA AT 33.7N 176.9E MOVING ENE 12KM/H
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER (SEAS UP TO 3.5M)
AND FORECAST FOR 021800UTC AT 35.1N 179.6E 1002HPA
MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
TS TORAJI 1000HPA AT 26.3N 124.7E MOVING NE 9KM/H
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER (SEAS UP TO 3.5M)
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS 150KM AND FORECAST FOR
021800UTC AT 27.7N 126.3E 994HPA MAX WINDS 20M/S
NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
NE WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER
NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 12 TO 18M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER
SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN=
WLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
BASHI CHANNEL=
SW WINDS FROM 12 TO 16/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER SOUTH
PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
AND ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA AND
SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT JAWA AND MAKASSAR STRAIT
AND LAUT MALUKU AND LAUT BANDA=
FORECAST=
WINDS FROM 14 TO 20M/S GUST 24M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M
OVER SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
NW WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN=
NE WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER
SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA AND NORTH PART OF EAST
CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M
OVER SEA SOUTHEAST OF INDONESIA=

==========

Hong Kong China

Forecast up to 24h : Wind, Sea state, Weather, Visibility
GMDSS_METAREA11-IOR_INMARSAT
==========
Caution: NAVIMAIL is not part of the Maritime Safety Information’s
operational data stream and should never be relied upon as the only
means to obtain the latest forecast and warning information. Access
to the service may be interrupted or delayed from time to time,
update may also experience occasional gaps. Please refer to GMDSS
OFFICIAL sources, Inmarsat SafetyNET or international NAVTEX
services, for more complete information
==========

WWCI50 BABJ 011800
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 2215UTC SEP.01 2013=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800UTC SEP. 01=
FORECAST VALID 1800UTC SEP. 02=
WARNNING=
TS YUTU 1002HPA AT 33.7N 176.9E MOVING ENE 12KM/H
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER (SEAS UP TO 3.5M)
AND FORECAST FOR 021800UTC AT 35.1N 179.6E 1002HPA
MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
TS TORAJI 1000HPA AT 26.3N 124.7E MOVING NE 9KM/H
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER (SEAS UP TO 3.5M)
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS 150KM AND FORECAST FOR
021800UTC AT 27.7N 126.3E 994HPA MAX WINDS 20M/S
NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
NE WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER
NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 12 TO 18M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER
SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN=
WLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
BASHI CHANNEL=
SW WINDS FROM 12 TO 16/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER SOUTH
PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
AND ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA AND
SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT JAWA AND MAKASSAR STRAIT
AND LAUT MALUKU AND LAUT BANDA=
FORECAST=
WINDS FROM 14 TO 20M/S GUST 24M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M
OVER SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
NW WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN=
NE WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER
SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA AND NORTH PART OF EAST
CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M
OVER SEA SOUTHEAST OF INDONESIA=

==========

Japan

Forecast up to 24h : Wind, Sea state, Weather, Visibility
WWJP25 RJTD 011800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 011800.
WARNING VALID 021800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 980 HPA
AT 53N 176E SEA AROUND ALEUTIANS MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW.
ANOTHER LOW 988 HPA AT 56N 176W
MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 43N 144E 47N 153E
50N 157E 39N 166E 38N 157E 40N 153E 37N 145E 43N 144E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 40N 151E EAST 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 19N 155E WNW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 35N 118E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 48N 151E ESE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 34N 154E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N 125E TO 32N 130E 35N 135E 36N 141E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1317 TORAJI (1317) 1002 HPA AT 26.3N 124.8E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1316 YUTU (1316) 1002 HPA AT 33.7N 176.9E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 011800
WARNING 011800.
WARNING VALID 021800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1317 TORAJI (1317) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1002 HPA
AT 26.3N 124.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 27.2N 125.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 28.0N 126.8E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 29.0N 127.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 29.6N 127.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

(Image: JMA) Sea forecast

END

Japanese (Translated by Google)

熱帯サイクロン(熱帯低気圧) 15Wトラジ

(日本語と韓国語の翻訳のためにスクロールダウン)

(日本語と韓国語の翻訳のためにスクロールダウン)

( 일본과한국번역아래로스크롤 )

(画像: wunderground.com )衛星(ソース画像をクリック)

(画像: wunderground.com ) 5日間の予報(ソース画像をクリック)

気象庁

(画像: JMA ) 5日間予報(ソース画像をクリック)

(画像: JMA )日本レーダー(ソース画像をクリック)

(画像: JMA )現在有効な警告/勧告は、 (ソースの画像をクリック)

TS 1317 (トラジ)
午後9時45分UTC 、 2013年9月1日に発行される
1月21日UTC>で<Analyses
1:43 –
強度 –
中心位置N26 °25 ‘ (26.4 °)
E125 °00 ‘( 125.0 °)
移動NNEの方向と速度をゆっくり
中心気圧1002hPa
中央18メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 35カラット)
最大突風スピード25メートル/秒( 50カラット)
30カラット風の面積以上ALL170km ( 90nmプロセス)
2月21日UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
確率サークルN28 ° 05 ‘ (28.1 °)の中心位置
E126 °40 ‘ ( 126.7 °)
運動NEゆっくりの方向と速度
中心気圧994hPa
中央20メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 40カラット)
最大突風スピード30メートル/秒( 60カラット)
確率160キロの円の半径( 85NM )
3月18日UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
確率円の中心位置N29 ° 00 ‘ (29.0 °)
E127 °30 ‘ ( 127.5 °)
移動NNEの方向と速度をゆっくり
中心気圧990hPa
中央23メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 45カラット)
最大突風スピード35メートル/秒( 65カラット)
確率300キロの円の半径( 160NM )
4月18日UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
確率サークルN29 °35 ‘ (29.6 °)の中心位置
E127 °40 ‘ ( 127.7 °)
ほぼ静止移動方向および速度
中心気圧990hPa
中央23メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 45カラット)
最大突風スピード35メートル/秒( 65カラット)
確率410キロの円の半径( 220nmの)
5月18日UTC>ため<Forecast
確率円の中心位置N31 °35 ‘ (31.6 °)
E127 °20 ‘ ( 127.3 °)
方向と速度運動のNゆっくり
確率520キロの円の半径( 280nmの)
6月18日UTC>ため<Forecast
確率円の中心位置N34 °00 ‘( 34.0 °)
E128 °35 ‘ ( 128.6 °)
移動NNEの毎時15キロ( 7カラット)の方向と速度
確率700キロの円の半径(約375nm )

気象庁

台風
予測チャート

17号トラジ

2013年9月2日: ( KST )で発行。 4時30分
日付( UTC)ポジションセントラル気圧(hPa )最大持続
15メートル/秒(キロ)震度移動方向の移動速度( km / hに) 70%の確率の半径(キロ)の風( m / s)で半径
ラット
(N )ロン
(E ) M / Sのkm / h
2013年9月1日。午後06時の分析26.3 124.8 1000年18 65 150弱スモールNE 8
2013年9月2日。午後06時の予測27.6 126.5 994 21 76 170弱小NE 9 140
2013年9月3日。午後06時の予測28.3 127.4 990 24 86 200弱小NE 5 230
2013年9月4日。午後06時の予測29.1 127.7 990 24 86 200弱小NNE 4 320
2013年9月5日。 18:00 30.1 127.4 992 22 79 180弱いスモールNNW 5 460を予測し
2013年9月6日。午後06時の予測31.3 127.7 996 19 68 150弱小NNE 6 550

※これは、唯一の、進行中の台風情報に提供されています。過去の情報は、国立台風センターのホームページで見つけることができる。

☞国立台風センターのホームページ

気象庁

韓国の61の16ギルYeouidaebang -RO銅雀区ソウル156から720共和国。

著作権(c)はKMAすべての権利を保有。 E-メール: master_kma@kma.go.kr

電話交換番号を指定せずに131をダイヤル

合同台風警報センター( JTWC )

(画像: JTWC ) TCの警告テキスト(ソース画像をクリック)

Google Earthのグラフィックオーバーレイ

WTPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN真珠湾HI / /
SUBJ /熱帯低気圧の警告/ /
RMKS /
1 。熱帯低気圧15W ( FIFTEEN )警告NR 002
NORTHWESTPAC IN 01 ACTIVE熱帯低気圧
MAXはONE- MINUTE平均に基づいてWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

警告POSITION :
011800Z — NEAR 26.1N 124.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 06 KTS AT 070 DEGREES
060 NM以内の正確な位置
POSITIONは、衛星のそば中心を基準に
PRESENT WIND配分:
MAX持続WINDS – 030 KT 、突風040 KT
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
26.1N 124.8E : POSITを繰り返す

予測:
AT VALID 12時間:
020600Z — 27.0N 125.8E
035 KT 、突風045 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
24人事POSITへのベクトル: 040 DEG / 06 KTS

AT VALID 24時間:
021800Z — 28.0N 126.7E
040 KT 、突風050 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT – 034 KTのWINDS OF RADIUS
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
36人事POSITへのベクトル: 045 DEG / 04 KTS

VALID AT 36時間:
030600Z — 28.5N 127.3E
045 KT 、突風055 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
48人事POSITへのベクトル: 045 DEG / 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK :
AT VALID 48時間:
031800Z — 29.0N 127.9E
040 KT 、突風050 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT – 034 KTのWINDS OF RADIUS
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
72人事POSITへのベクトル: 020 DEG / 03 KTS

AT VALID 72時間:
041800Z — 30.0N 128.3E
040 KT 、突風050 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
温帯BECOMING
034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
96人事POSITへのベクトル:355 DEG / 05 KTS

LONG RANGEの見通し:

AT VALID 96時間:
051800Z — 32.0N 128.0E
035 KT 、突風045 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
温帯
120人事POSITへのベクトル: 030 DEG / 09 KTS

VALID AT 120時間:
061800Z — 35.0N 130.3E
MAX持続WINDS – 030 KT 、突風040 KT
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
温帯

備考:
26.3N 125.1E NEAR 012100Z POSITION 。
熱帯低気圧15W ( FIFTEEN )に位置約163 NM
嘉手納ABの西は、 06ノットでEAST -北東追跡して
過去半時間以上。 011800Zで最大有義波高
8フィートです。 020300Z 、 020900Z 、 021500Z AND 022100Z 。 / AT / NEXT WARNINGS
NNNN
Westpacwx :熱帯性低気圧トラジは、台湾付近台风17 (日曜日の夜更新)を開発

robspeta / / westernpacificweatherによって2013年9月1日に公開

【 YouTubeはhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m86R-I8xX0c?feature=player_embedded ]

の一つの”台湾はついに金曜日以来記録降雨量1300ミリメートルにわたって続く今日、島全体で全体で発生して雨の量がわずかに減少を見て始めている。 3死傷者や地滑りの洪水の多数の報告につながっているので。信じられないほどの映像これらの土砂災害は、このリンクで見つけることができます。ビデオの開始時に、あなたが実際に山の頂上には道を譲る見ることができます。

GFS OUTLOOK

GFS OUTLOOK

今、新たな脅威は、すでに東シナ海に迫っている。この新しい低圧領域はまだ日曜日に多くの国に影響を与えている香港·レイは、それがオフにせん断や日本にプッシュされ、強力な寒冷前線によって北牽引されたように嵐が残したエネルギーを供給するのをきっかけに形成され。

この新たな嵐は、開発の初期段階ではまだですが、それはおそらく北東に香港·レイと同様の経路で、沖縄の北を追跡する利用可能な情報を与えられた。まだこの嵐と香港·レイとの間に巨大な差が生じます。前方の勢いははるかに遅い原因で日本全国の上位レベルのトラフと北方嵐​​パスをブロックする高圧尾根の可能性の弱体化になります。

Theregoこの時点では東シナ海で長引く嵐は非常によくできます。これは嵐の乾燥セクションを発生することがあったなら、まだのみ孤立雨と風の強い条件で結果沖縄経由で南東側に残っているでしょう。ずっと我々は香港·レイで見たような。同時に気象庁とGFSモデルはどちらも九州は週の半ばを通して熱帯性低気圧の強さの風と大雨に見舞われます示唆している間。これは週末に西日本全体で発生した豪雨の既に重い量を追加します。気象庁とNAVGEMモデルも北に高の影響を受けて週半ばでバック西嵐後退しにピックアップ。これはまだ多くの豪雨が木曜日に水曜日までに台湾で下落するだろう発生していた場合。それはまだこの時点では不明である。

何が自信を持って言うことができると、火曜日の風を通して九州より大雨が予想されており、熱帯性低気圧の強さの風が予想することができますが、おそらく時間にTS強度まで突風南部の日本列島に増加し始めるということです。私は、東シナ海と海面水温の垂直ウィンドシアの適度な量与え形成するよりも少し涼しいですする台風を期待いけない

東京TS ;ソースNHK

東京TS ;ソースNHK

通常領域を通して過去2週間を動かしてきた以前の熱帯システムから繰り返さ湧昇に起因する。

それは中部のように見えないと、大雨のそんなににもかかわらず表示されます。これは良いニュースのようにウェスタン関東限りが日曜日に暴風雨に見舞われた来る、 10,000人以上の人々は日曜日の夕方を介して電力を失った。

これは公式ではないいつものように、公式な警告や情報については、お近くのWMO承認機関に確認してください” – 。 westernpacificweather
MARITIME
中国
24時間までの予測:風、海の状態、天気、可視
GMDSS_METAREA11 – IOR_INMARSAT
==========
注意: NAVIMAILはの一部ではありません海上安全情報の
オペレーショナル·データ·ストリームとは、としてのみに依拠すべきではありません
最新の予測と警告情報を取得することを意味する。アクセス
、サービスを中断することができるか、または随時に延期
更新は不定期ギャップをも発生する可能性があります。 GMDSSを参照してください
OFFICIAL源、インマルサット確保SafetyNETまたは国際ナブテックス
サービス、より完全な情報については、
==========

WWCI50 BABJ 011800
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN =
NAVAREA XI (IOR )のメッセージは、 NMC BEIJINGによって発行された
2215UTC SEP.01 2013 = AT
メッセージは= EVERY 06 HOURSに更新されます
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800UTC 9月01 =
VALID 1800UTC 9月を見込んでいます。 02 =
=をWARNNING
ENE 12キロ/ HをMOVING 33.7N 176.9E AT TS YUTU 1002HPA
とセンターNEAR MAX WINDS 18M / S (UP 3.5M TO SEAS )
AND 35.1N 179.6E 1002HPA AT 021800UTCの見通し
CENTER = NEAR MAX WINDS 18M / S
NE 9キロ/ HをMOVING 26.3N 124.7E AT TSトラジ1000HPA
とセンターNEAR MAX WINDS 18M / S (UP 3.5M TO SEAS )
30KTS WINDS OFと半径150kmのANDの見通し
021800UTC 27.7N 126.3E AT 994HPA MAX WINDS 20M / S
CENTER = NEAR
概要=
10からUP 14M / S SEASに引き継が2.0M TO NE WINDS
東シナ海北部=
12 FROM UP 18M / SのSEAS TO OVER 3.5M TO WINDS
東シナ海と台湾=海東南部
10 FROM UP 1.5M TO OVER 12M / S SEAS TO WLY WINDS
バシー海峡=
12 FROM UP 16 / SのSEAS TO OVER 2.5M TO SWのWINDS
琉球SEA EAST =
SOUTH OVER 10KM THAN HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS
東シナ海、台湾SEA EAST OF PART
とアンダマン海とスマトラ海西と
スンダ海峡ラウトJAWA ANDマカッサル海峡
ANDラウトマルク州とラウトBANDA =
FORECAST =
14 FROM UP 3.5M TO 20M / Sガスト24M / SのSEAS TO WINDS
東シナ海南部= OVER
12 FROM UP 16M / SのSEAS TO OVER 2.5M TO NWのWINDS
TAIWAN = OF EAST SEA
10からUP 16M / SのSEAS TO OVER 2.5M TO NEのWINDS
黄海と東の北PART南部
CHINA SEA =
10からUP 14M / S SEASに引き継が2.5M TO SWのWINDS
琉球SEA EAST =
12 FROM UP 16M / SのSEAS TO 2.0M TO SEのWINDS
インドネシア= OF SEA SOUTHEAST OVER

==========

出典: http://weather.gmdss.org/navimail/GMDSS_METAREA11-IOR_INMARSAT
香港中国
24時間までの予測:風、海の状態、天気、可視
GMDSS_METAREA11 – IOR_INMARSAT
==========
注意: NAVIMAILはの一部ではありません海上安全情報の
オペレーショナル·データ·ストリームとは、としてのみに依拠すべきではありません
最新の予測と警告情報を取得することを意味する。アクセス
、サービスを中断することができるか、または随時に延期
更新は不定期ギャップをも発生する可能性があります。 GMDSSを参照してください
OFFICIAL源、インマルサット確保SafetyNETまたは国際ナブテックス
サービス、より完全な情報については、
==========

WWCI50 BABJ 011800
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN =
NAVAREA XI (IOR )のメッセージは、 NMC BEIJINGによって発行された
2215UTC SEP.01 2013 = AT
メッセージは= EVERY 06 HOURSに更新されます
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800UTC 9月01 =
VALID 1800UTC 9月を見込んでいます。 02 =
=をWARNNING
ENE 12キロ/ HをMOVING 33.7N 176.9E AT TS YUTU 1002HPA
とセンターNEAR MAX WINDS 18M / S (UP 3.5M TO SEAS )
AND 35.1N 179.6E 1002HPA AT 021800UTCの見通し
CENTER = NEAR MAX WINDS 18M / S
NE 9キロ/ HをMOVING 26.3N 124.7E AT TSトラジ1000HPA
とセンターNEAR MAX WINDS 18M / S (UP 3.5M TO SEAS )
30KTS WINDS OFと半径150kmのANDの見通し
021800UTC 27.7N 126.3E AT 994HPA MAX WINDS 20M / S
CENTER = NEAR
概要=
10からUP 14M / S SEASに引き継が2.0M TO NE WINDS
東シナ海北部=
12 FROM UP 18M / SのSEAS TO OVER 3.5M TO WINDS
東シナ海と台湾=海東南部
10 FROM UP 1.5M TO OVER 12M / S SEAS TO WLY WINDS
バシー海峡=
12 FROM UP 16 / SのSEAS TO OVER 2.5M TO SWのWINDS
琉球SEA EAST =
SOUTH OVER 10KM THAN HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS
東シナ海、台湾SEA EAST OF PART
とアンダマン海とスマトラ海西と
スンダ海峡ラウトJAWA ANDマカッサル海峡
ANDラウトマルク州とラウトBANDA =
FORECAST =
14 FROM UP 3.5M TO 20M / Sガスト24M / SのSEAS TO WINDS
東シナ海南部= OVER
12 FROM UP 16M / SのSEAS TO OVER 2.5M TO NWのWINDS
TAIWAN = OF EAST SEA
10からUP 16M / SのSEAS TO OVER 2.5M TO NEのWINDS
黄海と東の北PART南部
CHINA SEA =
10からUP 14M / S SEASに引き継が2.5M TO SWのWINDS
琉球SEA EAST =
12 FROM UP 16M / SのSEAS TO 2.0M TO SEのWINDS
インドネシア= OF SEA SOUTHEAST OVER

==========
日本
24時間までの予測:風、海の状態、天気、可視
WWJP25 RJTD 011800
WARNINGと要約011800 。
VALID 021800警告。
警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。
GALE警告。
LOW 980 HPAを開発
NORTHEAST 10ノットMOVINGアリューシャンAROUND 53N 176E SEA AT 。
LOWの500マイル以内WINDSは、30〜 40ノット。
56N 176W AT別の低988 HPA
EASTNORTHEAST 15ノットの移動。
警告。
濃霧はオホーツク海OVER LOCALLY観察した。
警告。
濃霧は43N 144E 47N 153Eに囲まれWATERS OVER LOCALLY OBSERVED
50N 157E 39Nファーストペーパー38N 157E 40N 153E 37N 145E 43N 144E 。
概要。
40N 151E EAST 10 KT AT LOW 1012 HPA 。
ゆっくり19N 155E西北西NEAR低圧AREA 1008 HPA 。
35N 118E EAST AT HIGH 1016 HPAゆっくり。
ゆっくり48N 151E ESE AT HIGH 1020 HPA 。
ALMOST STATIONARY 34N 154E AT HIGH 1016 HPA 。
28N 125E FROM 32N 130E 35N 135E 36N 141Eに対して静止FRONT 。
REMARKS 。
26.3N 124.8E AT TROPICAL STORM 1317トラジ( 1317 ) 1002 HPA : SEE
熱帯低気圧の警告。
33.7N 176.9E AT TROPICAL STORM 1316 YUTU ( 1316 ) 1002 HPA : SEE
熱帯低気圧の警告。
気象庁。 =

出典: http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwjp25.rjtd..txt
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21は011800をRJTD
WARNING 011800 。
VALID 021800警告。
警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。
GALE警告。
TROPICAL STORM 1317トラジ( 1317 )は、熱帯低気圧からアップグレード
1002 HPA
26.3N 124.8E AT東シナ海はゆっくりNORTHNORTHEASTの移動。
POSITIONのFAIR 。
MAXは、中心部に近い35ノットの風。
30 OVER KNOTのWINDS 90マイルの半径。
50マイル半径27.2N 125.9E AT 020600UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
998 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 35ノット。
85マイルの半径28.0N 126.8E AT 021800UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
994 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 40ノット。
EXTENDED見通し。
160マイルの半径29.0N 127.5E AT 031800UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
990 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 45ノット。
220マイルの半径29.6N 127.7E AT 041800UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
990 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 45ノット。

気象庁。 =

(画像: JMA )海予報

END

Korean (Translated by Google)

열대 사이클론 ( 열대성 폭풍 ) 15W 도라지

( 일본과 한국 번역 아래로 스크롤 )

(日本語 と 韓国 語 の 翻訳 の ため に スクロール ダウン)

( 일본과 한국 번역 아래로 스크롤 )

( 이미지 : wunderground.com ) 위성 ( 소스 이미지를 클릭 )

( 이미지 : wunderground.com ) 5 일 예보 ( 소스 이미지를 클릭 )

일본 기상청

( 이미지 : JMA 5) 일간의 일기 예보 ( 소스 이미지를 클릭 )

( 이미지 : JMA ) 일본 레이더 ( 소스 이미지를 클릭 )

( 이미지 : JMA ) 현재 유효한 경고 / 권고 는 ( 소스 이미지를 클릭 )

TS 1317 ( 도라지 )
세계 협정시 21시 45분 년 9 월 1 일 는 2013 발행
1월 21일 UTC> 에서 <Analyses
규모 –
강도 –
중앙 위치 N26 ° 25 ‘ (26.4 ° )
E125 ° 00 ‘ ( 125.0 ° )
운동 북동 의 방향과 속도 느리게
중앙 압력 1002hPa
중앙 18m / s의 근처 최대 풍속 ( 35캐럿 )
최대 돌풍 속도 25m / s의 ( 50캐럿 )
30캐럿 바람 의 영역 이상 ALL170km ( 90nm 공정 )
2월 21일 UTC> 에 대한 <Forecast
강도 –
확률 원형 N28 ° 05 ‘ ( 28.1 ° ) 의 중심 위치
E126 ° 40 ‘ ( 126.7 ° )
운동 NE 천천히 방향 과 속도
중앙 압력 994hPa
중앙 20m / s의 근처 최대 풍속 ( 40캐럿 )
최대 돌풍 속도 30m / s의 ( 60캐럿 )
확률 원형 160km 의 반경 ( 85NM )
3월 18일 UTC> 에 대한 <Forecast
강도 –
확률이 원의 중심 위치 N29 ° 00 ‘ (29.0 ° )
E127 ° 30 ‘ ( 127.5 ° )
운동 북동 의 방향과 속도 느리게
중앙 압력 990hPa
중앙 23m / s의 근처 최대 풍속 ( 45캐럿 )
최대 돌풍 속도 35m / s의 ( 65캐럿 )
확률 원형 300km 의 반경 ( 160NM )
4월 18일 UTC> 에 대한 <Forecast
강도 –
확률 원형 N29 ° 35 ‘ ( 29.6 ° ) 의 중심 위치
E127 ° 40 ‘ ( 127.7 ° )
거의 정지 운동의 방향과 속도
중앙 압력 990hPa
중앙 23m / s의 근처 최대 풍속 ( 45캐럿 )
최대 돌풍 속도 35m / s의 ( 65캐럿 )
확률 원형 410km 의 반경 ( 220NM )
5월 18일 UTC> 에 대한 <Forecast
확률이 원의 중심 위치 N31 ° 35 ‘ (31.6 ° )
E127 ° 20 ‘ ( 127.3 ° )
방향과 속도 운동의 N 천천히
확률 원형 520km 의 반경 ( 280NM )
6월 18일 UTC> 에 대한 <Forecast
확률이 원의 중심 위치 N34 ° 00 ‘ ( 34.0 ° )
E128 ° 35 ‘ ( 128.6 ° )
운동 NNE 의 15kmh ( 7캐럿 ) 의 방향과 속도
확률 원형 700km 의 반경 ( 375NM )

기상청

태풍
예측 차트

제 17 도라지

2013년 9월 2일 : (KST ) 에 발표했다. 4시 반
날짜 ( UTC ) 위치 중앙 기압 (hPa ) 최대 지속
15m / s의 ( km ) 강도 크기 진행 방향 이동 속도 (km / h ) 70 % 확률 반경 ( km ) 의 바람 ( M / S ) 반경
북위
(N) 론
(E) M / S kmh
2013년 9월 1일 . 18시 분석 26.3 124.8 1000 18 65 150 약 소형 NE 8
2013년 9월 2일 . 18시 예측 27.6 126.5 994 21 76 170 약 소형 NE 9 (140)
2013년 9월 3일 . 18시 예측 28.3 127.4 990 24 86 200 약 소형 NE 5 230
2013년 9월 4일 . 18시 예측 29.1 127.7 990 24 86 200 약 소형 북북동 4 320
2013년 9월 5일 . 18:00 30.1 127.4 992 22 79 180 약 소형 북북서 5 460 전망
2013년 9월 6일 . 18시 예측 31.3 127.7 996 19 68 150 약 소형 북북동 6 550

※ 이 만 진행태풍 정보를 제공 합니다. 과거의 정보는 국가 태풍 센터 홈페이지 에서 찾을 수 있습니다.

☞ 국가 태풍 센터 홈페이지

기상청

한국 61 16 길 Yeouidaebang -RO 동작구 서울 156-720 공화국.

저작권 (C) KMA 판권 소유 . E- 메일 : master_kma@kma.go.kr

전화 국번 없이 131 로 전화를 걸

합동 태풍 경보 센터 ( JTWC )

( 이미지 : JTWC ) TC 경고 텍스트 ( 소스 이미지를 클릭 )

구글 어스 그래픽 오버레이

WTPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT 태풍 WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI / /
피사체 / TROPICAL CYCLONE 경고 / /
RMKS /
1 . 열대 불경기 15W ( 다섯 ) 경고 NR 002
NORTHWESTPAC 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX 는 1 분 평균적인 바람을 지속
OPEN 물 위에 VALID 바람 반지름 만

경고 위치 :
011800Z — NEAR 26.1N 124.8E
운동 지난 6 시간 – 06 KTS AT 070 DEGREES
060 NM 내에서 정확한 위치
위치는 위성 에 의해 위치 CENTER 근거에
PRESENT 바람 배급 :
MAX 지속적인 WINDS – 030 KT , 돌풍 040 KT
OPEN 물 위에 VALID 바람 반지름 만
26.1N 124.8E : 창 이동 을 반복

예측 :
AT VALID 12 시간 :
020600Z — 27.0N 125.8E
035 KT , 돌풍 045 KT – MAX 는 바람을 지속
OPEN 물 위에 VALID 바람 반지름 만
24 시간 창 이동 의 벡터 : 040 DEG / 06 KTS

AT VALID 24 시간 :
021800Z — 28.0N 126.7E
040 KT , 돌풍 050 KT – MAX 는 바람을 지속
OPEN 물 위에 VALID 바람 반지름 만
040 NM 동북 QUADRANT – 034 KT 바람 의 RADIUS
045 NM 동남 QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
36 HR 의 창 이동 의 벡터 : 045 DEG / 04 KTS

유효한 AT 36 시간 :
030600Z — 28.5N 127.3E
045 KT , 돌풍 055 KT – MAX 는 바람을 지속
OPEN 물 위에 VALID 바람 반지름 만
034 KT 바람의 RADIUS – 060 NM 노스 이스트 QUADRANT
065 NM 동남 QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
48 시간 의 창 이동 의 벡터 : 045 DEG / 04 KTS

EXTENDED 전망 :
AT VALID 48 시간 :
031800Z — 29.0N 127.9E
040 KT , 돌풍 050 KT – MAX 는 바람을 지속
OPEN 물 위에 VALID 바람 반지름 만
040 NM 동북 QUADRANT – 034 KT 바람 의 RADIUS
045 NM 동남 QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
72 HR 의 창 이동 의 벡터 : 020 DEG / 03 KTS

AT VALID 72 시간 :
041800Z — 30.0N 128.3E
040 KT , 돌풍 050 KT – MAX 는 바람을 지속
OPEN 물 위에 VALID 바람 반지름 만
온대 되고
034 KT 바람의 RADIUS – 045 NM 노스 이스트 QUADRANT
040 NM 동남 QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
96 HR 의 창 이동 의 벡터 : 355 DEG / 05 KTS

LONG RANGE 전망 :

AT VALID 96 시간 :
051800Z — 32.0N 128.0E
035 KT , 돌풍 045 KT – MAX 는 바람을 지속
OPEN 물 위에 VALID 바람 반지름 만
온대
120 HR 의 창 이동 의 벡터 : 030 DEG / 09 KTS

유효한 AT 120 시간 :
061800Z — 35.0N 130.3E
MAX 지속적인 WINDS – 030 KT , 돌풍 040 KT
OPEN 물 위에 VALID 바람 반지름 만
온대

비고 :
26.3N 125.1E NEAR 012100Z 위치 .
열대 불경기 15W ( 다섯 ) , 위치한 약 163 NM
카데나 AB 의 서쪽 , 06 노트로 EAST- 북동쪽 추적 들었습니다
지난 6 시간 이상 . 011800Z AT 최대 유의 파고 의 높이
8 피트입니다. 020300Z , 020900Z , 021500Z 및 022100Z . / / AT NEXT 경고
NNNN
Westpacwx : 열대 폭풍우 도라지 대만 근처台风17 일 (일요일 야간 업데이트 ) 개발

robspeta / / westernpacificweather 에 의해 2013년 9월 1일 에 게시

[ 유튜브 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m86R-I8xX0c?feature=player_embedded ]

중 하나 ” 대만 이 마지막 금요일 이후 기록 된 강수량 의 1,300밀리미터 에 따라 오늘 섬 전역 에 걸쳐 발생하는 비 의 양 에 약간의 감소를 보고 시작합니다. 세 사상자 와 산사태 홍수 수많은 보고서를 주도 했기 때문에 . 믿을 영상 이러한 산사태 는 이 링크 에서 찾을 수 있습니다.비디오 의 시작 부분에서 당신은 실제로 산의 정상 이 방법을 제공 볼 수 있습니다.

GFS 전망

GFS 전망

이제 새로운 위협 은 이미 동중국 해에 다가오고있다 . 이 새로운 낮은 압력 영역 은 여전히 ​​일요일에 많은 국가 에 영향을 미치지 않습니다 홍콩 – 레이 가 전원이 전단 과 일본 에 밀려강력한 한랭 전선 에 의해 북쪽으로 구동 되었을 때 폭풍이 남긴 에너지를 공급 의 여파로 형성 되어 .

이 새로운 폭풍이 개발의 초기 단계 에 아직도있다 하지만 가능성이북쪽 동쪽 에 홍콩 – 레이 와 비슷한 경로에 오키나와 에서 북쪽 을 추적 할 수 있는 정보를 제공 . 그러나 이 폭풍 홍콩 – 레이 사이에 엄청난 차이가있을 것입니다. 앞으로 기세 가 훨씬 느려질 일본 전국 상위 저점 북쪽으로폭풍 경로를 차단하는 고압 능선 을위한 잠재력 의 약화 될 것이다 .

Therego 이 시간에 동중국 해에느린 폭풍이 아주 잘 할 수 있습니다. 이 폭풍 의 건조 부분을 발생 했다면 여전히 고립 된 레인 샤워 와 바람 조건 의 결과 오키나와 위에 남쪽 동쪽 에 남아 있다. 대부분 우리는 홍콩 – 레이 로 본 처럼 . 동시에 JMA 와 GFS 모델은 모두 큐슈 는 주중 통해 열대 폭풍우 힘 바람과 폭우 를 내야 할 것입니다 제안 하지만 . 이 주말에 일본 서부 에 걸쳐 발생한 비가이미 큰 금액으로 추가합니다. JMA 와 NAVGEM 모델은 북쪽에높은영향을 주중 으로 다시 서쪽으로폭풍 retrograding 에 듭니다. 이 아직 더 많은 폭우 목요일 에 수요일까지 대만에서 떨어질 것 발생 했다 합니다. 즉, 여전히이 시간에 불확실 .

어떤 확신을 가지고 말할 수 는 화요일 바람 을 통해 큐슈 에서 더 많은 폭우 가 예상 되고 열대 폭풍우 힘 바람 이 예상 될 ​​수 있지만 가능성이 항상 TS 힘 까지 돌풍남부 일본 열도 증가 하기 시작 한다는 것입니다 . 나는 동중국 해 와바다 표면 온도 의 수직 기류 의 적당한 양을 제공 형성 하는 것이 보다 약간 더 시원 할태풍 을 기대 해달라고

도쿄 TS , 소스 NHK

도쿄 TS , 소스 NHK

일반영역을 통해지난 2 주 동안 이동 한 이전 대 시스템 에서반복 용승 으로 인해 .

그것은 중앙 일본 처럼 보이지 않는 것은 폭우 너무 많이 있지만 볼 수 있습니다. 이 좋은 소식 과 서양 관동 의 많은 은 일요일 에 심한 폭풍 에 의해 명중 되었다 오고, 10,000 명의 사람들 이 일요일 저녁 을 통해 힘 을 잃었다.

이 공식 이 아닙니다 언제나처럼 공식적인 경고 및 정보는 해당 지역 WMO 승인 기관에 확인하십시오 . “- westernpacificweather
해양
중국
24 까지 예측 : 바람, 바다 상태 , 날씨, 가시성
GMDSS_METAREA11 – IOR_INMARSAT
==========
주의 : NAVIMAIL 의 일부가 아닌해상 안전 정보 의
운영 데이터 스트림 은으로 만 의존 해서는 안
최신 예측 및 경고 정보를 얻을 것을 의미합니다. 액세스
이 서비스 를 중단 할 수 있습니다 또는 시간 에서 시간 지연
업데이트는 가끔 틈 도 발생할 수 있습니다. GMDSS 를 참조하십시오
공식 소스 , 인말 새트 는 SafetyNET 또는 국제 NAVTEX
서비스 자세한 내용은
==========

WWCI50 BABJ 011800
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN =
NAVAREA XI ( IOR ) 에 대한 메시지 는 NMC BEIJING 에 의해 발행
2215UTC SEP.01 2013 = AT
메시지가 = EVERY 06 시간 업데이트
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800UTC 9월 01 =
VALID 1800UTC 9 월를 전망이다. 02 =
= 를 WARNNING
ENE 12KM / H 를 이동하는 33.7N 176.9E AT TS YUTU 1002HPA
AND 센터 주변 MAX WINDS 18M / S (UP 3.5M TO SEAS )
AND 35.1N 179.6E 1002HPA AT 021800UTC 을위한 예측
CENTER = NEAR MAX WINDS 18M / S
NE 약 9km / H 를 이동하는 26.3N 124.7E AT TS 도라지 1000HPA
AND 센터 주변 MAX WINDS 18M / S (UP 3.5M TO SEAS )
30KTS 바람 과 RADIUS 150KM 에 대해 예측,
021800UTC 27.7N AT 126.3E 994HPA MAX WINDS 20M / S
CENTER = NEAR
요약 =
10 ~ UP 14M / S SEAS 하기에 2.0M TO NE WINDS
동중국 해 북쪽 부분 =
12 FROM UP 18M / S 의 SEAS TO OVER 3.5M TO WINDS
EAST CHINA SEA 대만 = 의 동쪽 바다 의 남쪽 부분
10 FROM UP 1.5M TO OVER 12M / S SEAS TO WLY WINDS
바시 CHANNEL =
12 일부터 최대 16 / S 의 SEAS TO OVER 250 TO SW 바람
RYUKYU 제도 의 동쪽 바다 =
SOUTH OVER 10KM 보다는 수평 시야 LESS
EAST CHINA 바다와 대만의 동쪽 바다 의 일부
와 안다만 해 (Andaman Sea) 와 수마트라 바다의 서쪽
순다 해협 라웃 JAWA 및 MAKASSAR 해협
AND 라웃 말루 쿠 및 라웃 BANDA =
예측 =
14 일부터 UP 3.5M TO 20M / S GUST 24M / S 의 SEAS TO WINDS
동중국 해 남쪽 부분 = OVER
12 FROM UP 16M / S 의 SEAS TO OVER 250 TO NW 바람
대만 = OF SEA EAST
10 ~ UP 16M / S 의 SEAS TO OVER 250 TO NE 바람
서해 과 동쪽 의 북쪽 부분 의 남쪽 부분
CHINA SEA =
10 ~ UP 14M / S SEAS TO OVER 250 TO SW 바람
RYUKYU 제도 의 동쪽 바다 =
12 FROM UP 16M / S 의 SEAS TO 2.0M TO SE 바람
인도네시아 = 바다의 동남 OVER

==========

출처 : http://weather.gmdss.org/navimail/GMDSS_METAREA11-IOR_INMARSAT
중국 홍콩
24 까지 예측 : 바람, 바다 상태 , 날씨, 가시성
GMDSS_METAREA11 – IOR_INMARSAT
==========
주의 : NAVIMAIL 의 일부가 아닌해상 안전 정보 의
운영 데이터 스트림 은으로 만 의존 해서는 안
최신 예측 및 경고 정보를 얻을 것을 의미합니다. 액세스
이 서비스 를 중단 할 수 있습니다 또는 시간 에서 시간 지연
업데이트는 가끔 틈 도 발생할 수 있습니다. GMDSS 를 참조하십시오
공식 소스 , 인말 새트 는 SafetyNET 또는 국제 NAVTEX
서비스 자세한 내용은
==========

WWCI50 BABJ 011800
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN =
NAVAREA XI ( IOR ) 에 대한 메시지 는 NMC BEIJING 에 의해 발행
2215UTC SEP.01 2013 = AT
메시지가 = EVERY 06 시간 업데이트
SYNOPSIS VALID 1800UTC 9월 01 =
VALID 1800UTC 9 월를 전망이다. 02 =
= 를 WARNNING
ENE 12KM / H 를 이동하는 33.7N 176.9E AT TS YUTU 1002HPA
AND 센터 주변 MAX WINDS 18M / S (UP 3.5M TO SEAS )
AND 35.1N 179.6E 1002HPA AT 021800UTC 을위한 예측
CENTER = NEAR MAX WINDS 18M / S
NE 약 9km / H 를 이동하는 26.3N 124.7E AT TS 도라지 1000HPA
AND 센터 주변 MAX WINDS 18M / S (UP 3.5M TO SEAS )
30KTS 바람 과 RADIUS 150KM 에 대해 예측,
021800UTC 27.7N AT 126.3E 994HPA MAX WINDS 20M / S
CENTER = NEAR
요약 =
10 ~ UP 14M / S SEAS 하기에 2.0M TO NE WINDS
동중국 해 북쪽 부분 =
12 FROM UP 18M / S 의 SEAS TO OVER 3.5M TO WINDS
EAST CHINA SEA 대만 = 의 동쪽 바다 의 남쪽 부분
10 FROM UP 1.5M TO OVER 12M / S SEAS TO WLY WINDS
바시 CHANNEL =
12 일부터 최대 16 / S 의 SEAS TO OVER 250 TO SW 바람
RYUKYU 제도 의 동쪽 바다 =
SOUTH OVER 10KM 보다는 수평 시야 LESS
EAST CHINA 바다와 대만의 동쪽 바다 의 일부
와 안다만 해 (Andaman Sea) 와 수마트라 바다의 서쪽
순다 해협 라웃 JAWA 및 MAKASSAR 해협
AND 라웃 말루 쿠 및 라웃 BANDA =
예측 =
14 일부터 UP 3.5M TO 20M / S GUST 24M / S 의 SEAS TO WINDS
동중국 해 남쪽 부분 = OVER
12 FROM UP 16M / S 의 SEAS TO OVER 250 TO NW 바람
대만 = OF SEA EAST
10 ~ UP 16M / S 의 SEAS TO OVER 250 TO NE 바람
서해 과 동쪽 의 북쪽 부분 의 남쪽 부분
CHINA SEA =
10 ~ UP 14M / S SEAS TO OVER 250 TO SW 바람
RYUKYU 제도 의 동쪽 바다 =
12 FROM UP 16M / S 의 SEAS TO 2.0M TO SE 바람
인도네시아 = 바다의 동남 OVER

==========
일본
24 까지 예측 : 바람, 바다 상태 , 날씨, 가시성
WWJP25 RJTD 011800
경고 및 요약 011800 .
VALID 021800 을 경고합니다.
경고 는 6 시간마다 업데이트됩니다.
GALE 경고 .
LOW 980 HPA 를 개발
지점 호텔 10 매듭 을 움직이는 ALEUTIANS AROUND 53N 176E 바다 .
LOW 500 킬로미터 이내에있는 바람은 30 ~ 40 매듭 .
56N 176W 또 다른 LOW 988 HPA
EASTNORTHEAST 15 노트 를 이동합니다.
경고 .
짙은 안개 는 오호츠크 바다 로컬 관찰했다.
경고 .
짙은 안개 는 43N 144E 47N 153E 에 묶여 바다 위에 로컬 관찰
50N 157E 39N 166E 38N 157E 40N 153E 37N 145E 43N 144E .
요약 .
40N 151E EAST 10 KT AT LOW 1,012 HPA .
천천히 19N 155E 서북서 NEAR LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA .
35N 118E EAST 높은 1016 HPA 천천히 .
천천히 48N 151E ESE 높은 1020 HPA .
ALMOST STATIONARY 34N 154E AT HIGH 1016 HPA .
28N 125E FROM 32N 130E 35N 135E 36N 141E TO STATIONARY FRONT .
REMARKS .
26.3N 124.8E AT 열대 폭풍우 1317 도라지 ( 1317 ) 1002 HPA 보기 :
TROPICAL CYCLONE 경고 .
33.7N 176.9E AT 열대 폭풍우 1316 YUTU ( 1316 ) 1002 HPA 보기 :
TROPICAL CYCLONE 경고 .
일본 기상청 . =

출처 : http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwjp25.rjtd..txt
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 는 011800 를 RJTD
경고 011800 .
VALID 021800 을 경고합니다.
경고 는 6 시간마다 업데이트됩니다.
GALE 경고 .
열대 폭풍우 1317 도라지 ( 1317 ) 열대 불경기 로 업그레이드
1002 HPA
26.3N AT 124.8E EAST CHINA SEA 는 천천히 NORTHNORTHEAST 를 이동합니다.
POSITION 박람회 .
MAX 는 센터 주변 35 매듭 바람.
30 매듭 WINDS 90 마일 반경 .
50 마일 반경 27.2N 125.9E AT 020600UTC 에 대한 예측 위치
70 % 확률 서클 .
998 HPA , 중심 부근 최대 WINDS 35 매듭 .
85 마일 반경 28.0N 126.8E AT 021800UTC 에 대한 예측 위치
70 % 확률 서클 .
994 HPA , 중심 부근 최대 WINDS 40 매듭 .
EXTENDED 전망 .
160 마일 반경 29.0N 127.5E AT 031800UTC 에 대한 예측 위치
70 % 확률 서클 .
990 HPA , 중심 부근 최대 WINDS 45 매듭 .
220 마일 반경 29.6N 127.7E AT 041800UTC 에 대한 예측 위치
70 % 확률 서클 .
990 HPA , 중심 부근 최대 WINDS 45 매듭 .

일본 기상청 . =

( 이미지 : JMA ) 바다 전망

END

Japan: Tropical Cyclone 14W TD KONGREY/ NANDO 301800Z 33.0N 128.0E moving NE at 20kt – LOW (JMA) – 310813 1945z

Tropical Cyclone (Tropical Depression) KONG-REY / NANDO

(Scroll down for Chinese, Japanese and Korean translation)

(向下滾動中文,日文和韓文翻譯)

(中国語、日本語、韓国語の翻訳のためにスクロールダウン)

(중국어, 일본어 및 한국어 번역 아래로 스크롤)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: CWB Taiwan) Taiwan Radar (Click image for source)

PAGASA-DOSTDost_pagasa

PHILIPPINES

No tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Japan Meteorological agency

(Image: JMA)

(Image: JMA) Japan Radar (Click image for source/animation)

(Image: JMA) Currently valid Warnings/Advisories (Click image for source)

LOW
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 30 August 2013

<Analyses at 30/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
LOW
Center position N3300′(33.0)
E12800′(128.0)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTPN31 PGTW 310300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
310000Z — NEAR 33.6N 129.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 050 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 33.6N 129.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 37.5N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 30 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 41.3N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 29 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 44.4N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 34.6N 131.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 32 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 28
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM KMA SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION
OVER AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS
MERGED INTO THE PASSING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. A 302149Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS
QUICKLY ERODED AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRESS IN ON THE SYSTEM AND
THE LLCC HAS BECOME VERY POORLY DEFINED. TD 14W HAS NOW COMPLETED
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY AND IS NOW DETERMINED TO BE A COLD-CORE SYSTEM. THE
REMNANTS OF TD 14W ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRACK AS A BAROCLINIC
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN AND ACROSS NORTHERN
HONSHU INTO THE PACIFIC. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A LIMITED SPREAD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
JTWC FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z
IS 11 FEET.//
NNNN

TSR logo

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 31 Aug, 2013 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

 

Tropical Depression KONG-REY (14W) currently located near 33.6 N 129.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Japan
probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

westernpacificweather:

.

Severe Flooding In Taiwan and Japan : Kong-rey impacts

.

Heavy Rains and High Winds across Japan.縲€蜿ー鬚ィ縲€Update

 

MARITIME

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1200

WWJP25 RJTD 311200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 311200.
WARNING VALID 011200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 40N 139E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 40N 139E TO 39N 143E 38N 147E.
COLD FRONT FROM 40N 139E TO 36N 137E 34N 132E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 34N 132E TO 32N 129E 29N 125E 26N 122E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 994 HPA
AT 50N 168E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 50N 168E TO 49N 169E.
WARM FRONT FROM 49N 169E TO 46N 172E 42N 175E.
COLD FRONT FROM 49N 169E TO 43N 163E 41N 153E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW.
ANOTHER LOW 996 HPA AT 54N 163E
MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 31.0N 174.0E MIDWAYS MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER NORTHERN PART OF SEA OF OKHOTSK.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 54N 162E 60N 165E
60N 180E 41N 180E 42N 175E 50N 168E 54N 162E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 25N 122E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 36N 116E SE 10 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 23N 138E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 50N 146E SE 15 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 32N 154E ALMOST STATIONARY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

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END

Chinese (Translated by Google)

日本:熱帶氣旋14W TD KONGREY / NANDO
300900Z
30.4N 125.2E
移動,東北14克拉(聯合颱風警報中心) 300813 0850z

熱帶氣旋(熱帶低氣壓) KONG REY / NANDO的的

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