Mexico/ Gulf of Mexico: CAT2 Hurricane KATIA 07/0600Z nr 21.6N 94.7W, moving ESE 2kt (NHC FL)- Published 07 Sep 2017 0810z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE KATIA

(=CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…KATIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN..
could be near major hurricane strength at landfall..NHC

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CABO ROJO TO LAGUNA VERDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO RIO PANUCO
* SOUTH OF LAGUNA VERDE TO PUERTO VERACRUZ

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

Brownsville, TX Radar

Catedral Radar Mexico

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Katia Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017

…KATIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…21.0N 95.8W
ABOUT 160 MI…255 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI…205 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.80 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Cabo Rojo to Laguna Verde

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco
* South of Laguna Verde to Puerto Veracruz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Katia was located
near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 95.8 West. Katia is moving
toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through landfall within the hurricane warning
area early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected and Katia
could be near major hurricane strength at landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the
north of where Katia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches over northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, and
Puebla. Katia is also expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches over southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosi,
western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through
Saturday evening. Isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are
possible in northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San
Luis Potosi. This rainfall will likely cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area by tonight or early Saturday, with tropical
storm conditions expected within the tropical storm warning areas by
later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Katia will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Carbin/Bann

NNN

 

=============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 8 Sep, 2017 15:00 GMT

Hurricane KATIA is currently located near 21.0 N 95.8 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). KATIA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KATIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 70% within 9 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for TS is 50% within 9 hours
    Veracruz (19.2 N, 96.1 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

=============================================================================

Triple Trouble: Cat 5 Irma, Cat 3 Jose, Cat 1 Katia

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0250

WTNT23 KNHC 081432
TCMAT3

HURRICANE KATIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CABO ROJO TO LAGUNA VERDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO RIO PANUCO
* SOUTH OF LAGUNA VERDE TO PUERTO VERACRUZ

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 95.8W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT……. 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT……. 20NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT……. 50NE 60SE 55SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 95.8W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 95.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.6N 96.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT… 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT… 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
34 KT… 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.7N 97.4W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.1N 98.4W…POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 95.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CARBIN/BANN

 

=============================================================================

000
FZNT24 KNHC 081504
OFFNT4

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

GMZ001-090315-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS…Hurricane Katia centered near 21.0N 95.8W 975 mb at
11 AM EDT moving WSW at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts
105 kt. Katia is forecast to move to near 20.6N 96.4W this
evening, with maximum sustained wind of 85 kt gusts to 105 kt,
and inland near 19.7N 97.4W by early on Tuesday, with maximum
sustained winds 45 kt gusts to 55 kt. Katia will gradually weaken
as it moves further inland through Tuesday night. Major
Hurricane Irma is forecast to enter the eastern Straits of
Florida Saturday afternoon, then turn northward across the
Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday, bringing tropical
storm force and possibly hurricane force winds to eastern
portions of the Straits of Florida and Florida Bay in the far SE
Gulf late Sat into Sun.

 

$$

GMZ011-090315-
NW Gulf including Stetson Bank-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.MON…N to NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE…NW to N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft in the evening,
subsiding to 2 ft or less.

$$

GMZ013-090315-
N Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine Sanctuary-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.MON…N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TUE…NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…W to NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

$$

GMZ015-090315-
NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87W-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TODAY…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NE winds 20 to
25 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. S of 27N, N to
NE winds 25 to 30 kt, increasing to 35 to 40 kt late.
Elsewhere, NE winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 11 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. S of 27N, N winds 40 to
50 kt. Elsewhere, NE winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming N to NE 35 to
40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.MON…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.TUE…SW to W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ017-090315-
W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94W-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in mixed
NE and SW swell. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.MON…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TUE…NW to N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

GMZ019-090315-
Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SAT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TUE…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

GMZ021-090315-
E Gulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. N to NE winds
20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.SAT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. Straits of Florida,
N to NE winds 40 to 45 kt, becoming N 55 to 65 kt in the
afternoon. Elsewhere, N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. Straits of Florida,
NW to N winds 85 to 105 kt. Seas 17 to 19 ft. Elsewhere, N winds
30 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 12 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.SUN…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. Straits of Florida, NW to
N winds 50 to 55 kt, becoming NW 30 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 19 ft, subsiding to 10 to 14 ft in the
afternoon. Elsewhere, NW to N winds 35 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 13
ft.
.SUN NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.MON…NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
.TUE…SW to W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…S to SW winds 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ023-090315-
SW Gulf S of 22N W of 94W-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY…HURRICANE CONDITIONS. SW to W winds 65 to 75 kt. Seas
14 to 19 ft S of 21N W of 95W, and 16 to 20 ft elsewhere.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT…HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. S of 21N W of 95W, SW
to W winds 65 to 75 kt, shifting to S to SW 60 to 70 kt late.
Seas 19 to 22 ft. Elsewhere, SE winds 55 to 60 kt, becoming E 30
to 35 kt late. Seas 15 to 18 ft, subsiding to 9 to 12 ft late.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.SAT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. S of 21N W of 95W, E
winds 35 to 40 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 to 14 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Elsewhere,
NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in
the afternoon. Numerous showers and thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.MON…NW to N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE…NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

GMZ025-090315-
E Bay of Campeche including Campeche Bank-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…Within 60 nm of coast of Campeche, E to SE winds 5 to
10 kt, shifting to SW towards evening. Elsewhere, SE to S winds
10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.SAT…N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less Within 60 nm
of coast of Campeche, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

Forecaster Aguirre

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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US(TX/LA/MS/TN): Tropical Depression Harvey 31/0300Z update (NHC FL) – Updated 31 Aug 2017 0920z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Harvey

…FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana.

…..catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur,
and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week

 

at201709_5day TD HARVEY WUND

(Image: @wunderground)

at201709_sat TD HARVEY WUND

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

030124_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind TD HARVEY

avn_lalo-animated TD HARVEY

030124WPCQPF_sm rain 31

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

…FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…31.7N 92.3W
ABOUT 30 MI…50 KM NNE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM SE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 92.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the
northeast is expected Thursday or Thursday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Harvey should move through central Louisiana
tonight, then move through northeastern Louisiana and northwestern
Mississippi Thursday and Thursday night, and over the Tennessee
Valley region on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the
adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Tennessee and Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 12
inches. The threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/
Galveston area. However catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur,
and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. The
expected heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into
western Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river
and small stream flooding. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED
AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED
ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for additional information on this
life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into
parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic
through Saturday. These rains may lead to flooding concerns across
these areas.

A list of preliminary rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northwestern and northern
Gulf coast should subside very slowly over the next day or two.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight across parts of
Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Additional
tornadoes are possible on Thursday afternoon and evening across
northern portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and into parts
of Tennessee.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Harvey. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. These advisories will
also continue to be found on the National Hurricane Center website
at hurricanes.gov.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 31METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 300850

WTNT24 KNHC 310254
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES IN SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. PLEASE SEE WARNINGS
AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 92.3W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 92.3W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 92.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.4W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.5N 89.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.9N 87.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.0N 85.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 92.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER
WTNT34 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

 

=============================================================================

000
FZNT24 KNHC 310857
OFFNT4

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

GMZ001-312100-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS…Tropical Depression Harvey is inland over Louisiana.
As Harvey moves farther inland, a ridge will slowly build back
across the Gulf through the remainder of the week before a trough
develops over the western Gulf this weekend. An area of low pressure
could form along this trough over the southwestern Gulf by the
weekend.

$$

GMZ011-312100-
NW Gulf including Stetson Bank-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.TONIGHT…W to NW winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to SE to S. Seas
2 ft or less.
.FRI…S winds less than 5 kt, shifting to NE to E. Seas 2 ft or
less.
.FRI NIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, building to 3 ft in the
afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

GMZ013-312100-
N Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine Sanctuary-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft or
less.
.FRI NIGHT…SW winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to NE to E late. Seas
2 ft or less.
.SAT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN NIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, building to
3 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ015-312100-
NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt S of 27N, and S to SW 10 to 15 kt
elsewhere. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…W winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to SE to S late. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.SAT…SE winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.MON…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

$$

GMZ017-312100-
W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.TONIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

GMZ019-312100-
Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SE to S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt S of 24N, and E to SE 5 to 10 kt
elsewhere. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.FRI…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, building to
3 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt S of 24N, and E 5 to 10 kt
elsewhere. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SAT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

GMZ021-312100-
E Gulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E. Seas 3 ft,
subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.SAT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

GMZ023-312100-
SW Gulf S of 22N W of 94W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft
or less.
.TONIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…N winds 5 to 10 kt S of 21N W of 95W, and NE to E
10 to 15 kt elsewhere. Seas 2 ft or less. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…NE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to NW 5 to 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to W to NW in the
afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to E to SE
late. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

GMZ025-312100-
E Bay of Campeche including Campeche Bank-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning,
subsiding to 2 ft or less. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less,
building to 3 to 4 ft late. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening,
subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.SUN…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

Forecaster GR

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Gulf of Mexico: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three 20/1200Z nr 25.4N 90.3W, moving NW 08 kt (NHC FL) – Published 20 Jun 2017 1218z (GMT/UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AL03)

(Future TS Cindy)

A Tropical Storm Warning for…Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center FL

000
WTNT33 KNHC 201138
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
700 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

…DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.4N 90.3W
ABOUT 265 MI…430 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 300 MI…485 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* West of Cameron to High Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
25.4 North, longitude 90.3 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through Wednesday, with a turn toward the north expected
Wednesday night or Thursday. On the forecast track, the disturbance
is expected to be near the Louisiana coast late Wednesday or
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the
coast.

Satellite imagery shows that the center of the disturbance is
gradually become better defined, and it is likely that the system
will become a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
NOAA buoy 42001 just reported a pressure of 1000.6 mb (29.54
inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
10 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday
morning. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest
Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday morning.

STORM SURGE: Inundations of 1 to 3 feet are possible along the
coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight
from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 Jun, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm AL03 is currently located near 24.8 N 90.1 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). AL03 is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 35% currently
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
    Houston (29.8 N, 95.4 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201146
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
714 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

The center of Tropical Storm Bret, at 20/1200 UTC, is near 11.1N
63.6W, or about 17 nm to the ENE of La Isla de Margarita of
Venezuela. It is moving WNW westward, 290 degrees, 18 knots. The
maximum wind speeds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 knots. The
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Convective precipitation:
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Caribbean
Sea from 10N to 16N between 60W and 68W. Please read the NHC
Potential Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public
Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC for more details.

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three at 20/1200 UTC,
is near 25.4N 90.3W, about 230 nm to the SSW of the mouth of the
Mississippi River. It is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 8 knots. The
maximum wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. The
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Convective precipitation:
Scattered moderate to strong is in the waters from 26N to 30N
between 83W and 90W, and from 25N south between 83W and 87W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers inland areas
and coastal waters areas from the northern half of Guatemala
into the southern half of the Yucatan Peninsula, including in
the coastal waters of the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Please read the
NHC Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/ Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/35W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
03N to 08N southward between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/45W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, most
probably related to the ITCZ, from 06N to 08N between 40W and
46W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/71W from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
20N to 21N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N southward
between Puerto Rico and 73W.

…MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to
06N33W, and 03N43W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong
from 04N to 12N between 12W and 23W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 01N to 06N between 25W and 31W.

…DISCUSSION…

…THE GULF OF MEXICO…

A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough passes through southern
Louisiana, to a 26N94W cyclonic circulation center, to the Mexico
coast near 25N98W and 20N105W in Mexico. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in much of the
Gulf of Mexico, from 20N northward from 90W westward.

…CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD…

LIFR: none.

IFR: KGRY and KATP.

MVFR: KVQT, KMDJ, and KMIS.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA…

TEXAS: MVFR in McAllen, and in Huntsville. LOUISIANA: occasional
MVFR and areas of light rain from Patterson eastward to Lake
Pontchartain, and southeastward into the SE corner of the state.
MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in Natchez. light rain and LIFR in Pascagoula.
ALABAMA: MVFR and light rain in parts of the Mobile metropolitan
area. drizzle in Gulf Shores. light rain and LIFR in Fort Rucker
and Dothan. FLORIDA: rain, heavy at times, and LIFR conditions,
from Perry westward. LIFR/IFR around the Tampa/St. Petersburg
metropolitan area.

…THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of
the Caribbean Sea, with a 14N68W Caribbean Sea cyclonic
circulation center. Tropical Storm Bret is set to move into the
SE corner of the Caribbean Sea during the next 24 hours.

The Monsoon Trough extends from 09N74W in Colombia, through
Panama, northwestward through Costa Rica, and beyond, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 15N southward from 77W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 20/0000 UTC…according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES…MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC…are 1.06 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.10 in Curacao.

…HISPANIOLA…

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow, from an inverted
trough, is moving across the area. Rainshowers and thunder still
are possible across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS…for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Punta Cana: rain and thunder. VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist
of cyclonic wind flow, with the current N-to-S oriented trough.
Expect southerly wind flow during the first half of day two,
followed by anticyclonic wind flow during the second half of day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that day one will
consist of the rest of the inverted trough moving through the area
completely, during day one. Day one will end with SE wind flow
moving across Hispaniola. Expect SE wind flow during day two, with
an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that day one will consist of SE-to-E wind flow.
Expect cyclonic wind flow with a separate inverted trough, during
day two. Hispaniola will be on the southern side of an E-to-W
oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge.

…THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…

An upper level trough is anchored by a cyclonic circulation
center that is about 770 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico, to a 14N68W
Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation center. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
20N to 21N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N southward
between Puerto Rico and 73W. Rainshowers and thunder still are
possible across Hispaniola.

An upper level trough passes through 32N32W to 21N35W. A cold
front passes through 32N24W to 25N41W and 31N57W. Convective
precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers cover the area that is from 24N northward between 22W
and 60W, and elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward.
Widely scattered moderate is from 29N to 32N between 55W and 58W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Tropical Storm Danielle (04L) STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS E MEXICO…NHC – Published 20 Jun 2016 1745z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Danielle

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground Satellite

Image: @wunderground Satellite

National Hurricane Center FL US

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]000
WTNT34 KNHC 201432
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

…DANIELLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…
…HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…20.7N 96.3W
ABOUT 75 MI…120 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI…165 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 96.3 West. Danielle is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the
west or west-northwest is expected during the next day or so. On
the forecast track, the center of Danielle is expected to move
inland over eastern Mexico later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Danielle
makes landfall in Mexico later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Danielle is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within portions of the warning area later this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Cangialosi

N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 Jun, 2016 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm DANIELLE is currently located near 20.7 N 96.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). DANIELLE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
    Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
        probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Danielle the Atlantic’s Earliest 4th Storm on Record; 115°-120° Heat in SW U.S – WEATHER UNDERGROUND

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , 3:59 PM GMT on June 20, 2016

“Tropical Storm Danielle formed on Monday morning in the Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche, but won’t be around long. The storm’s west to west-northwest motion will carry the storm inland over Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico by Monday evening. With top winds of just 45 mph as estimated by the National Hurricane Center in their 11 am EDT Monday advisory, heavy rain is expected to be the primary threat from the storm. Satellite loops show a large area of intense thunderstorms with heavy rain are moving inland along the Mexican coast south of Texas, and total rainfall amounts of 6 – 10″ are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides in the mountainous terrain along the coast. Heavy rains from Danielle will remain just south of Texas, with Brownsville expected to pick up an inch of rain or less in scattered thunderstorms through Monday night. Danielle will dissipate by Tuesday over the rugged terrain east of Mexico City.”
For more click link https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3337

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 20

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1431

WTNT24 KNHC 201431
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
1500 UTC MON JUN 20 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. LAGUNA VERDE TO RIO PANUCO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 50NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 96.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.8N 97.2W…NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 50SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.8N 98.1W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z…DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 96.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Drilling rig in the Gulf of Mexico collapses after fire

Eideard

The operator of the natural gas rig burning out of control in the Gulf of Mexico has begun preparations to move a jack-up rig to the location to potentially drill a relief well…The well suffered a blowout Tuesday morning and the rig caught fire later Tuesday night when the leaking natural gas ignited…

No one was on board at the time of the ignition and no one was injured, according to BSEE. The burning rig is southwest of Grand Isle, about 55 miles offshore, authorities said.

As the rig fire continues, the beams supporting the derrick and rig floor have folded and have collapsed over the rig structure, BSEE stated on Wednesday morning.

The Coast Guard said the rig caught fire at 10:45 p.m. Tuesday and BSEE stated that the source of the ignition remained unknown on Wednesday morning…The description of the incident…lists that 47 people had been evacuated from…

View original post 131 more words

Gulf of Mexico: Low Pressure Area (Invest 91L) Tropical Cylone Formation Alert (Fleet Weather Center Norfolk) – 050613 1400z

Invest 91L upgraded to Tropical Storm Andrea

Go here: http://wp.me/p2k2mU-1Vr

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image Invest 91L (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) NEXRAD Radar Map (Click image for source)

Invest 91L Opens in Google Earth kml icon

Tropical Cylone Formation Alert (Fleet Weather Center Norfolk)

WTNT KAGU 051500

051200Z POSITION: NEAR 24.1N 88.8W

MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 05 KNOTS

Alerta de Formacin Cylone Tropical (Fleet Center Tiempo Norfolk)

WTNT KaGu 051500

POSICIN 051200Z: CERCA 24.1N 88.8W

Movindose hacia el nortenoreste a 05 NUDOS

(Image: nrlmry.navy.mil) US Navy Tropical Cylone Formation Alert

(Image: nrlmry.navy.mil) 91L.INVEST, VIS, 05 JUN 2013 1715Z

National Hurricane Center

(Image: NHC) Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup Invest 91L

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTICCARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO

1. A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE
AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY
DEFINEDHOWEVER AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENTTHERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE60 PERCENTOF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING
OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENTADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EFFECTS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICEAND IN
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERETROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN

Spanish:

1.ZCZC MIATWOAT TODO
TTAA00 TJSJ ddhhmm

PERSPECTIVA DE TIEMPO TROPICAL
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MIERCOLES 05 de junio 2013

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE EL ​​MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO

1. UN AREA AMPLIA Y ELONGATED DE BAJA PRESION SOBRE EL GOLFO DE CENTRAL
MEXICO CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA AMPLIA DE TORMENTAS Y VIENTOS
A CERCA DE GALE FORCE SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. SATLITE
Y los datos de superficie sugieren que el CIRCULACIN sigue siendo poco
DEFINE SIN EMBARGO UN AVION DE LA FUERZA AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES
PROGRAMADO PARA INVESTIGAR LA ALTERACIN ESTA TARDE. AUNQUE
CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES NO SON FAVORABLES PARA SIGNIFICATIVO
DESARROLLO HAY POSIBILIDAD DE ESTE SISTEMA PARA SER
DEPRESIN O TORMENTA ANTES DE QUE SE MUEVE A TRAVS DEL NORTE TROPICAL
FLORIDA TARDE Jueves O JUEVES EN LA NOCHE. ESTE SISTEMA TIENE UN ALTO
OPORTUNIDAD 60 POR CIENTO DE CONVERTIRSE EN CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LA
PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

ESTE SISTEMA YA HA PRODUCIDO lluvias torrenciales e inundaciones
SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN ESTE Y OESTE DE CUBA. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE
DE DESARROLLO FUERTES LLUVIAS ADICIONALES Y VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS SON
Espera que ms de los Cayos de Florida Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE
EL PAR DE DIAS. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES SOBRE TAMBIN
LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE HASTA EL JUEVES. ADICIONAL
INFORMACIN SOBRE ESTE SISTEMA Y SUS EFECTOS SE PUEDE ENCONTRAR EN ALTA
OLEAJE DE PREVISIONES EMITIDOS POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA Y EN
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO METEOROLGICO O
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.

EN OTRA PARTE FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL NO SE ESPERA DURANTE EL
PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

&&

PRONOSTICOS DE OLEAJE ALTO EMITIDOS POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA PUEDEN SER
ENCUENTRA BAJO AWIPS NFDHSFAT1 Y OMM FZNT01 KWBC.

$ $
PREDICCIN DE BROWN
NNNN

CUBA

(Image: met.inf.cu) Cuba Radar (Click image for source)

Weather Outlook.
Forecast Center, INSMET.
Date: June 4, 2013. Time: 9:00 pm

According to the meteorological station network INSMET in the last 12 hours heavy rain occurred in Pinar del Río in some localities as Isabel Rubio which recorded 128 mm, in St. Lucia with 89 mm and San Juan y Martinez 69 mm.

This situation is associated with the presence of a low pressure area is observed north of the Yucatán Peninsula, it remains cloudy and rain over the western Caribbean Sea, the Straits of Florida and western Cuba. During the next 24 to 48 hours this system will move slowly north and has an average probability of becoming a tropical cyclone.

For the next hour continued high probability of rain in the west of the country, mainly in Pinar del Rio, where they could become locally heavy.

Perspectivas del Tiempo
Perspectivas del Tiempo.
Centro de Pronsticos, INSMET.
Fecha: 4 de junio de 2013. Hora: 9:00 p.m.

Segn la red de estaciones meteorolgicas del INSMET, en las ltimas 12 horas ocurrieron lluvias intensas en Pinar del Ro en algunas localidades como Isabel Rubio donde se registraron 128 mm, en Santa Luca con 89 mm y en San Juan y Martnez 69 mm.

Esta situacin se encuentra asociada a la presencia de un rea de bajas presiones que se observa al norte de la pennsula de Yucatn, la misma mantiene nublados y lluvias sobre el mar Caribe occidental, el estrecho de la Florida y el occidente de Cuba. Durante las prximas 24 a 48 horas este sistema se va a desplazar lentamente al norte y tiene una probabilidad media de convertirse en cicln tropical.

Para las prximas horas contina alta la probabilidad de lluvias en el occidente del pas, principalmente en Pinar del Ro, donde pudieran llegar a ser localmente intensas.

Passengers hang signs over cruise ship balcony

FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV | News, Weather, Sports

[ooyala code=”NzdDFkOToLe-SBEG4BVSY11mcBOh6FBr”]

(CNN) — Squalid, smelly and steamy, the crippled ship Carnival Triumph limped toward port Thursday, its passengers and crew looking forward to an end to their hellish cruise.

The laborious slog through the Gulf of Mexico tested not only the senses of the thousands on board, but their patience as well.

Rough weather overnight slowed the Triumph and the tugboats leading it to Mobile, Alabama. The ship, now accompanied by four tugboats, is expected to arrive at the port between 8 and 11 p.m. (9 p.m. to midnight ET), according to the latest guidance. At one point it had been expected as early as 3 p.m.

It’s been a nightmare five days for the 3,143 passengers and 1,086 crew members on board the 900-foot, 14-story Triumph, where a fire broke out in the engine room early Sunday.

Much of the ship’s electrical power went down in the fire…

View original post 1,043 more words

Black Elk Oil rig explosion in Gulf of Mexico: 11 injured airlifted to hospital, 2 missing, 9 unhurt – Updated 181112 0200z

The U.S. Coast Guard in New Orleans confirms there was an offshore platform explosion in the Gulf of Mexico that happened around 9:15 a.m. Friday.

It is believed to be off the coast of Grand Isle in Federal Waters.

Capt. Ed Cubanski with the U.S. Coast Guard says contrary to previous reports there have been no confirmed deaths from the explosion.

The platform is a production facility.

There were 22 people on the platform at the time of the explosion.

Two people are reported missing, 11 were initially airlifted to local hospitals, and nine were uninjured during the explosion.

Officials say crews from other oil rigs were helping to evacuate the people on the platform, and hopefully the two missing people are with another crew.

The search for them continues.

A hospital spokesperson says two of the critically injured were airlifted to the Baton Rouge General-Mid City Burn Center from a hospital in Marrero, LA.

Two are still en route to Baton Rouge from the hospital in Marrero, LA via ambulance.

The hospital says the two that are already at the Baton Rouge hospital are in critical condition with major burns. There is no word on the other two victims.

The Coast Guard activated a “command center” in Houma, LA to investigate the incident.

A cleanup crew been dispatched to handle any possible pollution.

Capt. Cubanski says there is an oil sheen that is about one half mile by 200 yards.

A Coast Guard crew out of Morgan City, LA will help lead the investigation into the accident itself. They say it’s still too early to get an exact pinpoint on how the accident will impact the environment.

John Hoffman, the CEO of Black Elk says “It’s very tough. We’re almost like family and when something like this happens, it tears at our hearts.”

Hoffman says their thoughts are with the victims and their families.

“It’s a horrible day but we are going to hold together. First and foremost we have to take care of those who were involved.”

The U.S. Coast Guard says the platform was “shut-in” meaning production had been stopped so crews could perform repairs.

Workers were using a torch to cut a 3-inch line that was 75-feet long when the explosion happened.

There was about 28 gallons of product in that line. The fire is out and there is no oil believed to be leaking into the Gulf of Mexico.

A Congressional source says the Gulf oil rig fire caused by an acetylene torch cutting an oil line.

An official said the platform in question is a shallow water platform located in West Delta Block 32 in the Gulf of Mexico, about 25 miles southeast of Grand Isle, south of New Iberia on the south-central Louisiana coast.

Plaquemines Port Authority was immediately notified by the Coast Guard and are on stand-by in Venice to support the Coast Guard.

The Coast Guard is on the scene with multiple boats and aircrafts.

Three commercial vessels are also on scene. ES&H clean-up has been dispatched to handle any possible pollution.

They have set up their command center in Houma. Black Elk Energy, a Houston-based company, has a platform in that area, but it is unknown if that company owns the one that had the explosion.

Black Elk Energy Offshore Operations, LLC, announced in October that drilling and major rig work on the first of the 23 wells started in November.

The preliminary report says a worker was cutting a pipe that had oil in it and it ignited.

The fire has been extinguished. The preliminary report also states an oil sheen can be seen in the water.

Sources say the structure of the platform is intact with no structural damage from the explosion.

Saturday, 17 November, 2012 at 04:50 UTC RSOE

Coast Guard calls off search for two missing workers after oil rig explosion

Gerald Herbert / AP

In this aerial photograph, a supply vessel moves near an oil rig damaged by an explosion and fire on Friday in the Gulf of Mexico about 17 miles southeast of Grand Isle, La.

By NBC News staff and wire services

The Coast Guard called off the search for two workers missing after an explosion and fire devastated an oil rig off Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico. Three helicopter crews, a Coast Guard cutter and a fixed-wing aircraft crew had searched a 1,400-square-mile area around the platform, which is operated by Houston-based Black Elk Energy, the Coast Guard said in a statement. – NBC

US: DEBBY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA (NHCAdv16) – 27 June 2012 1010 GMT/UTC

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(Image: NHC NOAA)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click image for source)

NWS Tallahasee, FL Local Doppler Radars

Fort Rucker, AL (KEOX)
(check status)�E��E�

The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar at Ft. Rucker, AL.  Click on the image for additional options.�E��E�

Moody AFB, GA (KVAX)
(check status)�E��E�

The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar at Moody AFB, GA.  Click on the image for additional options.

Eglin AFB, FL (KEVX)
(check status)�E��E�

The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar at Eglin AFB, FL.  Click on the image for additional options.

Tallahassee, FL (KTLH)
(check status)�E��E�

The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar that serves Tallahassee, FL.  Click on the image for additional options.

POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY (CLICK HERE FOR JAX BRIEFING)…

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 27 Jun, 2012 9:00 GMT

Tropical Depression DEBBY (AL04) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States
probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

N Atlántico: Alerta de tormenta emitido al 27 de junio 2012 09:00 GMT

Tropical DEBBY Depresión (AL04) se prevé que la huelga de la tierra a la probabilidad siguiente (s) en el plazo de entrega determinado (s):
País alerta amarilla (s) o de la Provincia (s)
los Estados Unidos
probabilidad de TS es del 90% en la actualidad
Amarillo Ciudad Alerta (s) y Ciudad (s)
Orlando (29,0 N, 81,5 W)
probabilidad de TS es del 55% en la actualidad

Nótese que
Alerta amarilla (elevada) es CAT 1 o superior a entre 10% y 30% de probabilidad, o TS anteriormente probabilidad del 50%.
CAT 1 significa que vientos huracanados de fuerza de por lo menos 74 mph, 119 km / ho 64 nudos 1-min sostenida.
TS significa vientos fuerza de tormenta tropical de al menos 39 mph, 63 km / ho 34 nudos 1-min sostenida.

Para información de los pronósticos gráfica y otros detalles por favor visite http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

000
WTNT34 KNHC 270831
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
500 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

…DEBBY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST OF
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.6N 81.0W
ABOUT 25 MI…45 KM SE OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH…17
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…DEBBY
SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM FLORIDA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE…ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTS OF FLORIDA SHOULD SUBSIDE
LATER TODAY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH DEBBY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE LINGERING
RAIN BANDS…MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTCA44 TJSJ 270931
TCPSP4

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA  NUMERO  16
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL042012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM EDT MIERCOLES 27 DE JUNIO DE 2012

…DEBBY MENOS ORGANIZADA MIENTRAS ALCANZA LA COSTA ESTE DEL NORTE
CENTRAL DE FLORIDA…

RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMACION
————————————————–
LOCALIZACION…29.6 NORTE 81.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 25 MI…45 KM AL SURESTE DE ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL…ESTE NORESTE O 75 GRADOS A 10 MPH…17 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA…998 MB…29.47 PULGADAS

VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
——————–
NO HAY VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
—————————————————
A LAS 5:00 AM EDT…0900 UTC…EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL
DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.6 NORTE…LONGITUD
81.0 OESTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A
CERCA DE 10 MPH…17 KM/H. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE
TRASLACION. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA…DEBBY DEBERA ALEJARSE
GRADUALMENTE DE FLORIDA HOY.

VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH…55 KM/H…CON
RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN SU INTENSIDAD
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 998 MB…29.47 PULGADAS.

PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
————————-
MAREJADA CICLONICA…NIVELES ALTOS DE AGUA EN AREAS DONDE LAS AGUAS
NORMALMENTE FLUYEN SOBRE LA COSTA A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DEL
SUROESTE Y NORESTE DE FLORIDA DEBEN DISMINUIR MAS TARDE HOY. PARA
INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA…FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.

LLUVIA…SE ESPERA QUE LAS LLUVIAS ASOCIADAS A DEBBY CONTINUEN
DISMINUYENDO A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA MAS TARDE HOY.
CANTIDADES AISLADAS ADICIONALES DE HASTA UNA PULGADA SON POSIBLES EN
LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE DEBBY…MAYORMENTE SOBRE EL SUR DE FLORIDA.

PROXIMAS ADVERTENCIAS
———————
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA…1100 AM EDT.

$$

PRONOSTICADORES AVILA

000
WTNT44 KNHC 270832
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
500 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

SATELLITE…RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF DEBBY IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING ELONGATED. THE CENTER
IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION…BUT THE AREA
OF MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 075
DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS IN A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
FLORIDA ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL
PROBABLY 30 KNOTS IN A FEW SQUALLS MAINLY OVER WATER.

NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH…AND IN FACT…BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST
WEAKENING IN THE 00 UTC RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS DEBBY AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALLOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEYOND 3
DAYS.

DEBBY IS EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH…AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR
NORTHEAST AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 29.6N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH…OVER WATER
12H  27/1800Z 30.0N  79.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  28/0600Z 30.5N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  28/1800Z 31.0N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  29/0600Z 32.0N  70.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  30/0600Z 35.0N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  01/0600Z 38.0N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 45.5N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT44 TJSJ 270832
TCDAT4

DEBBY DEPRESION TROPICAL NÚMERO 16 DE DEBATE
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042012
500 AM EDT MIERCOLES 27 de junio 2012

Las observaciones de radar … Y SATÉLITE superficie indica que el
CIRCULACIÓN DE DEBBY es cada vez más alargada. EL CENTRO
Es difícil de localizar Dada la falta de organización … PERO LA ZONA
DE PRESION MINIMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE O ESTE-075
GRADOS a 9 nudos en el noreste de la Florida Central. LA MAYORÍA DE LAS PROFUNDIDADES
CONVECCIÓN está en una banda tipo frontal AMPLIACIÓN DEL NORESTE
A TRAVES DE LA FLORIDA Atlántico adyacente. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SON TODAVÍA
Probablemente 30 nudos con una TURBONADAS PRINCIPALMENTE sobre el agua.

NINGUNA DE LAS DIRECTRICES DE INTENSIDAD muestran un aumento significativo EN
Fuerza … Y, de hecho … Tanto el modelo GFS y ECMWF dan a entender
Debilitamiento en el RUN 00 UTC. El pronóstico oficial DEBBY MANTIENE COMO
DEPRESION TROPICAL Y PERMITE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE más allá de 3
DÍAS.

DEBBY está incrustado en flujo del oeste dentro de la base A MEDIADOS DE LA LATITUD
A TRAVÉS DE … y debe seguir para avanzar en la ESTE-NORESTE O
NORESTE DE LO INDICADO POR LOS MODELOS GLOBALES. LA PREVISIÓN OFICIAL
En medio de la GFS y ECMWF MODELOS.

POSICIONES DE PREVISIÓN Y Vientos máximos

INIT 29.6N 81.0W 27/0900Z 30 KT 35 MPH … SOBRE EL AGUA
12H 30.0N 79.4W 27/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30.5N 76.5W 28/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31.0N 73.0W 28/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 32.0N 70.5W 29/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 35.0N 66.5W 30/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 38.0N 62.0W 01/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 45.5N 50.0W 02/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

A man has been captured on film using a wind created by tropical storm Debby to leap over an entire pier at Redington Beach, Florida, according to the Telegraph.

The gale-force winds, which have been measuring up to 50 miles per hour, lift him totally clear of the structure.

The video was taken by onlooker Jay Gartner, who uploaded it onto YouTube on Sunday, and it has since been viewed over 300,000 times. – AOL