Mexico: Tropical Storm Danielle (04L) STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS E MEXICO…NHC – Published 20 Jun 2016 1745z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Danielle

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground Satellite

Image: @wunderground Satellite

National Hurricane Center FL US

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]000
WTNT34 KNHC 201432
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

…DANIELLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…
…HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…20.7N 96.3W
ABOUT 75 MI…120 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI…165 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 96.3 West. Danielle is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the
west or west-northwest is expected during the next day or so. On
the forecast track, the center of Danielle is expected to move
inland over eastern Mexico later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Danielle
makes landfall in Mexico later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Danielle is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within portions of the warning area later this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Cangialosi

N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 Jun, 2016 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm DANIELLE is currently located near 20.7 N 96.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). DANIELLE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
    Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
        probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Danielle the Atlantic’s Earliest 4th Storm on Record; 115°-120° Heat in SW U.S – WEATHER UNDERGROUND

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , 3:59 PM GMT on June 20, 2016

“Tropical Storm Danielle formed on Monday morning in the Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche, but won’t be around long. The storm’s west to west-northwest motion will carry the storm inland over Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico by Monday evening. With top winds of just 45 mph as estimated by the National Hurricane Center in their 11 am EDT Monday advisory, heavy rain is expected to be the primary threat from the storm. Satellite loops show a large area of intense thunderstorms with heavy rain are moving inland along the Mexican coast south of Texas, and total rainfall amounts of 6 – 10″ are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides in the mountainous terrain along the coast. Heavy rains from Danielle will remain just south of Texas, with Brownsville expected to pick up an inch of rain or less in scattered thunderstorms through Monday night. Danielle will dissipate by Tuesday over the rugged terrain east of Mexico City.”
For more click link https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3337

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 20

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1431

WTNT24 KNHC 201431
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
1500 UTC MON JUN 20 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. LAGUNA VERDE TO RIO PANUCO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 50NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 96.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.8N 97.2W…NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 50SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.8N 98.1W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z…DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 96.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Drilling rig in the Gulf of Mexico collapses after fire

Eideard

The operator of the natural gas rig burning out of control in the Gulf of Mexico has begun preparations to move a jack-up rig to the location to potentially drill a relief well…The well suffered a blowout Tuesday morning and the rig caught fire later Tuesday night when the leaking natural gas ignited…

No one was on board at the time of the ignition and no one was injured, according to BSEE. The burning rig is southwest of Grand Isle, about 55 miles offshore, authorities said.

As the rig fire continues, the beams supporting the derrick and rig floor have folded and have collapsed over the rig structure, BSEE stated on Wednesday morning.

The Coast Guard said the rig caught fire at 10:45 p.m. Tuesday and BSEE stated that the source of the ignition remained unknown on Wednesday morning…The description of the incident…lists that 47 people had been evacuated from…

View original post 131 more words

Gulf of Mexico: Low Pressure Area (Invest 91L) Tropical Cylone Formation Alert (Fleet Weather Center Norfolk) – 050613 1400z

Invest 91L upgraded to Tropical Storm Andrea

Go here: http://wp.me/p2k2mU-1Vr

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image Invest 91L (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) NEXRAD Radar Map (Click image for source)

Invest 91L Opens in Google Earth kml icon

Tropical Cylone Formation Alert (Fleet Weather Center Norfolk)

WTNT KAGU 051500

051200Z POSITION: NEAR 24.1N 88.8W

MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 05 KNOTS

Alerta de Formacin Cylone Tropical (Fleet Center Tiempo Norfolk)

WTNT KaGu 051500

POSICIN 051200Z: CERCA 24.1N 88.8W

Movindose hacia el nortenoreste a 05 NUDOS

(Image: nrlmry.navy.mil) US Navy Tropical Cylone Formation Alert

(Image: nrlmry.navy.mil) 91L.INVEST, VIS, 05 JUN 2013 1715Z

National Hurricane Center

(Image: NHC) Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup Invest 91L

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTICCARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO

1. A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE
AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY
DEFINEDHOWEVER AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENTTHERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE60 PERCENTOF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING
OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENTADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EFFECTS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICEAND IN
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERETROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN

Spanish:

1.ZCZC MIATWOAT TODO
TTAA00 TJSJ ddhhmm

PERSPECTIVA DE TIEMPO TROPICAL
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MIERCOLES 05 de junio 2013

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE EL ​​MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO

1. UN AREA AMPLIA Y ELONGATED DE BAJA PRESION SOBRE EL GOLFO DE CENTRAL
MEXICO CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA AMPLIA DE TORMENTAS Y VIENTOS
A CERCA DE GALE FORCE SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. SATLITE
Y los datos de superficie sugieren que el CIRCULACIN sigue siendo poco
DEFINE SIN EMBARGO UN AVION DE LA FUERZA AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES
PROGRAMADO PARA INVESTIGAR LA ALTERACIN ESTA TARDE. AUNQUE
CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES NO SON FAVORABLES PARA SIGNIFICATIVO
DESARROLLO HAY POSIBILIDAD DE ESTE SISTEMA PARA SER
DEPRESIN O TORMENTA ANTES DE QUE SE MUEVE A TRAVS DEL NORTE TROPICAL
FLORIDA TARDE Jueves O JUEVES EN LA NOCHE. ESTE SISTEMA TIENE UN ALTO
OPORTUNIDAD 60 POR CIENTO DE CONVERTIRSE EN CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LA
PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

ESTE SISTEMA YA HA PRODUCIDO lluvias torrenciales e inundaciones
SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN ESTE Y OESTE DE CUBA. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE
DE DESARROLLO FUERTES LLUVIAS ADICIONALES Y VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS SON
Espera que ms de los Cayos de Florida Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE
EL PAR DE DIAS. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES SOBRE TAMBIN
LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE HASTA EL JUEVES. ADICIONAL
INFORMACIN SOBRE ESTE SISTEMA Y SUS EFECTOS SE PUEDE ENCONTRAR EN ALTA
OLEAJE DE PREVISIONES EMITIDOS POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA Y EN
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO METEOROLGICO O
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.

EN OTRA PARTE FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL NO SE ESPERA DURANTE EL
PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

&&

PRONOSTICOS DE OLEAJE ALTO EMITIDOS POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA PUEDEN SER
ENCUENTRA BAJO AWIPS NFDHSFAT1 Y OMM FZNT01 KWBC.

$ $
PREDICCIN DE BROWN
NNNN

CUBA

(Image: met.inf.cu) Cuba Radar (Click image for source)

Weather Outlook.
Forecast Center, INSMET.
Date: June 4, 2013. Time: 9:00 pm

According to the meteorological station network INSMET in the last 12 hours heavy rain occurred in Pinar del Río in some localities as Isabel Rubio which recorded 128 mm, in St. Lucia with 89 mm and San Juan y Martinez 69 mm.

This situation is associated with the presence of a low pressure area is observed north of the Yucatán Peninsula, it remains cloudy and rain over the western Caribbean Sea, the Straits of Florida and western Cuba. During the next 24 to 48 hours this system will move slowly north and has an average probability of becoming a tropical cyclone.

For the next hour continued high probability of rain in the west of the country, mainly in Pinar del Rio, where they could become locally heavy.

Perspectivas del Tiempo
Perspectivas del Tiempo.
Centro de Pronsticos, INSMET.
Fecha: 4 de junio de 2013. Hora: 9:00 p.m.

Segn la red de estaciones meteorolgicas del INSMET, en las ltimas 12 horas ocurrieron lluvias intensas en Pinar del Ro en algunas localidades como Isabel Rubio donde se registraron 128 mm, en Santa Luca con 89 mm y en San Juan y Martnez 69 mm.

Esta situacin se encuentra asociada a la presencia de un rea de bajas presiones que se observa al norte de la pennsula de Yucatn, la misma mantiene nublados y lluvias sobre el mar Caribe occidental, el estrecho de la Florida y el occidente de Cuba. Durante las prximas 24 a 48 horas este sistema se va a desplazar lentamente al norte y tiene una probabilidad media de convertirse en cicln tropical.

Para las prximas horas contina alta la probabilidad de lluvias en el occidente del pas, principalmente en Pinar del Ro, donde pudieran llegar a ser localmente intensas.

Passengers hang signs over cruise ship balcony

FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV | News, Weather, Sports

[ooyala code=”NzdDFkOToLe-SBEG4BVSY11mcBOh6FBr”]

(CNN) — Squalid, smelly and steamy, the crippled ship Carnival Triumph limped toward port Thursday, its passengers and crew looking forward to an end to their hellish cruise.

The laborious slog through the Gulf of Mexico tested not only the senses of the thousands on board, but their patience as well.

Rough weather overnight slowed the Triumph and the tugboats leading it to Mobile, Alabama. The ship, now accompanied by four tugboats, is expected to arrive at the port between 8 and 11 p.m. (9 p.m. to midnight ET), according to the latest guidance. At one point it had been expected as early as 3 p.m.

It’s been a nightmare five days for the 3,143 passengers and 1,086 crew members on board the 900-foot, 14-story Triumph, where a fire broke out in the engine room early Sunday.

Much of the ship’s electrical power went down in the fire…

View original post 1,043 more words

Black Elk Oil rig explosion in Gulf of Mexico: 11 injured airlifted to hospital, 2 missing, 9 unhurt – Updated 181112 0200z

The U.S. Coast Guard in New Orleans confirms there was an offshore platform explosion in the Gulf of Mexico that happened around 9:15 a.m. Friday.

It is believed to be off the coast of Grand Isle in Federal Waters.

Capt. Ed Cubanski with the U.S. Coast Guard says contrary to previous reports there have been no confirmed deaths from the explosion.

The platform is a production facility.

There were 22 people on the platform at the time of the explosion.

Two people are reported missing, 11 were initially airlifted to local hospitals, and nine were uninjured during the explosion.

Officials say crews from other oil rigs were helping to evacuate the people on the platform, and hopefully the two missing people are with another crew.

The search for them continues.

A hospital spokesperson says two of the critically injured were airlifted to the Baton Rouge General-Mid City Burn Center from a hospital in Marrero, LA.

Two are still en route to Baton Rouge from the hospital in Marrero, LA via ambulance.

The hospital says the two that are already at the Baton Rouge hospital are in critical condition with major burns. There is no word on the other two victims.

The Coast Guard activated a “command center” in Houma, LA to investigate the incident.

A cleanup crew been dispatched to handle any possible pollution.

Capt. Cubanski says there is an oil sheen that is about one half mile by 200 yards.

A Coast Guard crew out of Morgan City, LA will help lead the investigation into the accident itself. They say it’s still too early to get an exact pinpoint on how the accident will impact the environment.

John Hoffman, the CEO of Black Elk says “It’s very tough. We’re almost like family and when something like this happens, it tears at our hearts.”

Hoffman says their thoughts are with the victims and their families.

“It’s a horrible day but we are going to hold together. First and foremost we have to take care of those who were involved.”

The U.S. Coast Guard says the platform was “shut-in” meaning production had been stopped so crews could perform repairs.

Workers were using a torch to cut a 3-inch line that was 75-feet long when the explosion happened.

There was about 28 gallons of product in that line. The fire is out and there is no oil believed to be leaking into the Gulf of Mexico.

A Congressional source says the Gulf oil rig fire caused by an acetylene torch cutting an oil line.

An official said the platform in question is a shallow water platform located in West Delta Block 32 in the Gulf of Mexico, about 25 miles southeast of Grand Isle, south of New Iberia on the south-central Louisiana coast.

Plaquemines Port Authority was immediately notified by the Coast Guard and are on stand-by in Venice to support the Coast Guard.

The Coast Guard is on the scene with multiple boats and aircrafts.

Three commercial vessels are also on scene. ES&H clean-up has been dispatched to handle any possible pollution.

They have set up their command center in Houma. Black Elk Energy, a Houston-based company, has a platform in that area, but it is unknown if that company owns the one that had the explosion.

Black Elk Energy Offshore Operations, LLC, announced in October that drilling and major rig work on the first of the 23 wells started in November.

The preliminary report says a worker was cutting a pipe that had oil in it and it ignited.

The fire has been extinguished. The preliminary report also states an oil sheen can be seen in the water.

Sources say the structure of the platform is intact with no structural damage from the explosion.

Saturday, 17 November, 2012 at 04:50 UTC RSOE

Coast Guard calls off search for two missing workers after oil rig explosion

Gerald Herbert / AP

In this aerial photograph, a supply vessel moves near an oil rig damaged by an explosion and fire on Friday in the Gulf of Mexico about 17 miles southeast of Grand Isle, La.

By NBC News staff and wire services

The Coast Guard called off the search for two workers missing after an explosion and fire devastated an oil rig off Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico. Three helicopter crews, a Coast Guard cutter and a fixed-wing aircraft crew had searched a 1,400-square-mile area around the platform, which is operated by Houston-based Black Elk Energy, the Coast Guard said in a statement. – NBC

US: DEBBY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA (NHCAdv16) – 27 June 2012 1010 GMT/UTC

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(Image: NHC NOAA)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click image for source)

NWS Tallahasee, FL Local Doppler Radars

Fort Rucker, AL (KEOX)
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The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar at Ft. Rucker, AL.  Click on the image for additional options.�E��E�

Moody AFB, GA (KVAX)
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The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar at Moody AFB, GA.  Click on the image for additional options.

Eglin AFB, FL (KEVX)
(check status)�E��E�

The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar at Eglin AFB, FL.  Click on the image for additional options.

Tallahassee, FL (KTLH)
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The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar that serves Tallahassee, FL.  Click on the image for additional options.

POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY (CLICK HERE FOR JAX BRIEFING)…

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 27 Jun, 2012 9:00 GMT

Tropical Depression DEBBY (AL04) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States
probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

N Atlántico: Alerta de tormenta emitido al 27 de junio 2012 09:00 GMT

Tropical DEBBY Depresión (AL04) se prevé que la huelga de la tierra a la probabilidad siguiente (s) en el plazo de entrega determinado (s):
País alerta amarilla (s) o de la Provincia (s)
los Estados Unidos
probabilidad de TS es del 90% en la actualidad
Amarillo Ciudad Alerta (s) y Ciudad (s)
Orlando (29,0 N, 81,5 W)
probabilidad de TS es del 55% en la actualidad

Nótese que
Alerta amarilla (elevada) es CAT 1 o superior a entre 10% y 30% de probabilidad, o TS anteriormente probabilidad del 50%.
CAT 1 significa que vientos huracanados de fuerza de por lo menos 74 mph, 119 km / ho 64 nudos 1-min sostenida.
TS significa vientos fuerza de tormenta tropical de al menos 39 mph, 63 km / ho 34 nudos 1-min sostenida.

Para información de los pronósticos gráfica y otros detalles por favor visite http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

000
WTNT34 KNHC 270831
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
500 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

…DEBBY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST OF
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.6N 81.0W
ABOUT 25 MI…45 KM SE OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH…17
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…DEBBY
SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM FLORIDA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE…ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTS OF FLORIDA SHOULD SUBSIDE
LATER TODAY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH DEBBY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE LINGERING
RAIN BANDS…MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTCA44 TJSJ 270931
TCPSP4

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA  NUMERO  16
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL042012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM EDT MIERCOLES 27 DE JUNIO DE 2012

…DEBBY MENOS ORGANIZADA MIENTRAS ALCANZA LA COSTA ESTE DEL NORTE
CENTRAL DE FLORIDA…

RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMACION
————————————————–
LOCALIZACION…29.6 NORTE 81.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 25 MI…45 KM AL SURESTE DE ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL…ESTE NORESTE O 75 GRADOS A 10 MPH…17 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA…998 MB…29.47 PULGADAS

VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
——————–
NO HAY VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
—————————————————
A LAS 5:00 AM EDT…0900 UTC…EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL
DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.6 NORTE…LONGITUD
81.0 OESTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A
CERCA DE 10 MPH…17 KM/H. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE
TRASLACION. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA…DEBBY DEBERA ALEJARSE
GRADUALMENTE DE FLORIDA HOY.

VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH…55 KM/H…CON
RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN SU INTENSIDAD
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 998 MB…29.47 PULGADAS.

PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
————————-
MAREJADA CICLONICA…NIVELES ALTOS DE AGUA EN AREAS DONDE LAS AGUAS
NORMALMENTE FLUYEN SOBRE LA COSTA A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DEL
SUROESTE Y NORESTE DE FLORIDA DEBEN DISMINUIR MAS TARDE HOY. PARA
INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA…FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.

LLUVIA…SE ESPERA QUE LAS LLUVIAS ASOCIADAS A DEBBY CONTINUEN
DISMINUYENDO A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA MAS TARDE HOY.
CANTIDADES AISLADAS ADICIONALES DE HASTA UNA PULGADA SON POSIBLES EN
LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE DEBBY…MAYORMENTE SOBRE EL SUR DE FLORIDA.

PROXIMAS ADVERTENCIAS
———————
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA…1100 AM EDT.

$$

PRONOSTICADORES AVILA

000
WTNT44 KNHC 270832
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
500 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

SATELLITE…RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF DEBBY IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING ELONGATED. THE CENTER
IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION…BUT THE AREA
OF MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 075
DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS IN A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
FLORIDA ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL
PROBABLY 30 KNOTS IN A FEW SQUALLS MAINLY OVER WATER.

NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH…AND IN FACT…BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST
WEAKENING IN THE 00 UTC RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS DEBBY AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALLOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEYOND 3
DAYS.

DEBBY IS EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH…AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR
NORTHEAST AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 29.6N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH…OVER WATER
12H  27/1800Z 30.0N  79.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  28/0600Z 30.5N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  28/1800Z 31.0N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  29/0600Z 32.0N  70.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  30/0600Z 35.0N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  01/0600Z 38.0N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 45.5N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT44 TJSJ 270832
TCDAT4

DEBBY DEPRESION TROPICAL NÚMERO 16 DE DEBATE
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042012
500 AM EDT MIERCOLES 27 de junio 2012

Las observaciones de radar … Y SATÉLITE superficie indica que el
CIRCULACIÓN DE DEBBY es cada vez más alargada. EL CENTRO
Es difícil de localizar Dada la falta de organización … PERO LA ZONA
DE PRESION MINIMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE O ESTE-075
GRADOS a 9 nudos en el noreste de la Florida Central. LA MAYORÍA DE LAS PROFUNDIDADES
CONVECCIÓN está en una banda tipo frontal AMPLIACIÓN DEL NORESTE
A TRAVES DE LA FLORIDA Atlántico adyacente. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SON TODAVÍA
Probablemente 30 nudos con una TURBONADAS PRINCIPALMENTE sobre el agua.

NINGUNA DE LAS DIRECTRICES DE INTENSIDAD muestran un aumento significativo EN
Fuerza … Y, de hecho … Tanto el modelo GFS y ECMWF dan a entender
Debilitamiento en el RUN 00 UTC. El pronóstico oficial DEBBY MANTIENE COMO
DEPRESION TROPICAL Y PERMITE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE más allá de 3
DÍAS.

DEBBY está incrustado en flujo del oeste dentro de la base A MEDIADOS DE LA LATITUD
A TRAVÉS DE … y debe seguir para avanzar en la ESTE-NORESTE O
NORESTE DE LO INDICADO POR LOS MODELOS GLOBALES. LA PREVISIÓN OFICIAL
En medio de la GFS y ECMWF MODELOS.

POSICIONES DE PREVISIÓN Y Vientos máximos

INIT 29.6N 81.0W 27/0900Z 30 KT 35 MPH … SOBRE EL AGUA
12H 30.0N 79.4W 27/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30.5N 76.5W 28/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31.0N 73.0W 28/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 32.0N 70.5W 29/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 35.0N 66.5W 30/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 38.0N 62.0W 01/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 45.5N 50.0W 02/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

A man has been captured on film using a wind created by tropical storm Debby to leap over an entire pier at Redington Beach, Florida, according to the Telegraph.

The gale-force winds, which have been measuring up to 50 miles per hour, lift him totally clear of the structure.

The video was taken by onlooker Jay Gartner, who uploaded it onto YouTube on Sunday, and it has since been viewed over 300,000 times. – AOL