Bermuda/ Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Joaquin CAT2 04/1500Z 31.0N 66.8W, moving NNE 15 knots (NHC FL) – Updated 04 OCT 2015 1705z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Joaquin

(CATEGORY 2Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Hurricane Warning for BERMUDA – storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding

…CENTER OF JOAQUIN FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TODAY…
…DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Latest Watches, Warnings & Advisories

Hurricane Warning

Updated: 11:30 am Sunday, October 04, 2015

Additional Information:

Hurricane force winds are expected to occur for a period during Sunday evening, especially in the west and over elevated, exposed areas. Please refer to latest Tropical Update Information.
Hurricane Warning
A warning that one or both of the following dangerous effects of a hurricane are expected to affect Bermuda or the local marine area out to 25 nautical miles in 36 hours or less: (a) average winds 64 knots (118 km/h) (74 mph) or higher; (b) dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves, even though winds expected may be less than hurricane force.

Please refer to the latest forecast for detailed information on conditions likely to affect Bermuda and the surrounding marine area. This is available by logging onto our website at www.weather.bm.

The above warning(s) will be updated as conditions warrant.

– Meteorologist: Fred Byrley

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

145216W5_NL_sm 4

000
WTNT31 KNHC 041451
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015

…CENTER OF JOAQUIN FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TODAY…
…DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…31.0N 66.8W
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB…28.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of eye of Hurricane Joaquin
was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 31.0 North, longitude 66.8 West. Joaquin is now moving
toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion with a slight decrease in forward is expected to continue
through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will
pass just west of Bermuda this afternoon, and pass north of Bermuda
tonight.

Recent data from the hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 957 mb (28.26 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda
later this morning, with hurricane conditions expected by this
afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and
will spread northward along the east coast of the United States
through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to
pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period
of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the
mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with
moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 4 Oct, 2015 15:00 GMT

Hurricane JOAQUIN (AL11) currently located near 31.0 N 66.8 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bermuda
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201511N 4

Other Reports

#SCwx #NCwx #SC #NC #SAR #Flood #SevereWx #News/ Historic, life-taking #flooding in #SouthCarolina – many rescues rptd

Even though #Hurricane #Joaquin is tracking away from the United States, torrential rainfall continues to pound the #EastCoast. Heavy rain has brought historic, life-threatening flooding in many locations in South Carolina, including in #Charleston and #Columbia, where numerous rescues have been reported. Into Monday, a feed of rich tropical moisture from the #Atlantic will continue to unleash heavy rainfall on the Southeast, especially in parts of South Carolina and southeastern #NorthCarolina. Gov. Nikki Haley urged the residents of South Carolina to stay safe, saying that the amount of rain in the low country was at its highest level in a 1,000 years and noted that the #CongareeRiver was at its highest level since 1936. In eastern South Carolina and southeastern #NorthCarolina, rainfall totals are predicted to range from 12 to 24 inches, nearly half of the normal rainfall for an entire year. President #Obama has already declared a state of emergency in South Carolina and ordered federal aid to help state and local efforts. Rain and flood warnings remained in effect for many parts of the East Coast on Sunday. While much of the torrential rainfall was centered in the #Carolinas, coastal communities as far as #NewJersey were feeling the effects of unrelenting rainfall. In New Jersey, storms dislodged an entire house from its pilings in a low-lying area of #MiddleTownship, according to NBC New York. Flood watches and warnings are in effect in parts of New Jersey, as well as #Delaware, #Maryland and #Virginia. At least 5 people have died on the East Coast since the severe weather began. Of the three weather-related deaths in South Carolina, two were motorists who lost control of their cars and the third was a pedestrian hit by a car. Take a look at photos of the unfolding devastation from the torrential rains and powerful wind gusts.

Monday, 05 October, 2015 at 12:23 (12:23 PM) UTC RSOE

See also https://www.windyty.com/?23.624,-73.795,6

Dr. Jeff Masters’ Blog

Thousand-Year Rains Possible in Carolinas; Joaquin Headed North

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , 4:39 PM GMT on October 02, 2015

Hurricane Joaquin continued to lash the Bahamas on Friday morning as it turned north on a course expected to keep it well away from the U.S. East Coast. However, several days of coastal flooding and beach erosion will occur from New Jersey to North Carolina, and extremely heavy rain could produce dangerous impacts in South Carolina. It was a long night of screaming winds, pounding waves, and lashing rains for residents of the Central Bahama Islands, where dangerous Hurricane Joaquin maintained Category 4 intensity with 130 mph winds. The eyewall of Joaquin affected Crooked Island/Acklins Island (population 600), and Long Island (population 3,000) for many hours, and no doubt damage is heavy to extreme on those islands. Joaquin has turned to the north, as seen on microwave satellite animations, and as the storm plows northwards at 3 – 6 mph on Friday, San Salvador Island (population 900) will likely feel eyewall winds. The Hurricane Hunters made multiple passes through the hurricane Friday morning, finding that the central pressure had gradually risen from 935 mb to 939 mb. The size of the eye has been fluctuating considerably, and the Hurricane Hunters noted a secondary maxima of winds away from the eyewall, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle may be ready to begin. These cycles that lead to a collapse of the inner eyewall, followed by a temporary weakening as a new outer eyewall is established. Wind shear continued to be in the moderate range, 10 – 20 knots, on Friday morning, and visible and infrared satellite loops showed that Joaquin continued to maintain a formidable appearance. Upper level winds analyses from the University of Wisconsin show that the hurricane has now has two impressive upper-level outflow channels, one to the northwest, and one to the southeast. Ocean temperatures in the region remain a record-warm 30°C (86°F). These conditions should allow Joaquin to maintain at least Category 3 strength until Saturday.


Figure 1. Lightning flashes in one of Hurricane Joaquin’s spiral bands in this nighttime image taken in the early morning hours of October 2, 2015 from the International Space Station. The lights of Miami are visible in the upper left. Image credit: Commander Scott Kelly, ISS.


Figure 2.  GOES-13 visible image of Hurricane Joaquin taken at 8:45 am EDT October 2, 2015. At the time, Joaquin was a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Forecast for Joaquin
Joaquin is finally embarking on its long-awaited turn toward the north, and the Bahamas are likely the only land areas that will feel a direct impact from the storm. Microwave satellite animations on Friday morning showed the convective core of Joaquin shifting toward the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is now streaming toward the northwest, some of it becoming entrained in the frontal system off the East Coast.

The 00Z Friday (8 pm EDT Thursday) computer model runs continued to lean heavily toward an offshore track for Joaquin. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF solutions inched slightly westward from their previous tracks, bringing Joaquin a bit closer to Cape Cod through a subtle left swing in its path. The 06Z GFS run shifted back toward the east, well away from New England, and the 12Z GFS run also remained far offshore. A slight northward bend in the otherwise northeastward track remains in the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET solutions, as noted in the 11:00 am EDT forecast discussion from NHC. The ECMWF’s 00Z Friday ensemble runs were quite closely clustered around the offshore track, with only a couple of its 50 members suggesting the potential for a New England landfall. In contrast, more than a third of the 00Z and 06Z GEFS ensemble members continue to indicate the possibility of a SC/NC landfall, although the operational GFS model has not shown such a solution for some time. Among other major models, the Canadian GEM and the U.S. NAM (including the 12Z Friday NAM ran) also point toward an East Coast landfall, but take heed: these are historically among the least-reliable track models, so we would be wise to heavily discount them in favor of the GFS and ECMWF.


Figure 3. GFS ensemble members from the GEFS run on 06Z Friday, October 2, lean heavily toward an offshore track for Joaquin as depicted in the official NHC forecast, although a few members still bring Joaquin along a looping onshore path near the U.S. East Coast. On the right-hand side are the ensembles’ projected tracks for Invest 90L. Image credit: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.

The official NHC forecast track as of 11:00 am EDT Friday keeps Joaquin hundreds of miles away from the U.S. East Coast, and NHC has enough confidence in this track that the “key points” section of its latest forecast discussion does not mention any potential for a U.S. landfall. The persistence of a few model outliers should not be a particular cause for concern at this point, but it does remind us that the upper-level features that will steer Joaquin are complex and dynamic. The two main influences on Joaquin’s track remain the upper low now cutting off over the Southeast U.S. and Invest 90L, located more than 1000 miles east of Joaquin. 90L originated from an upper-level low that has incorporated remnants of former Tropical Storm Ida. The NHC is giving 90L an 80% chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours as it drifts northward. The presence of 90L is creating a pathway for Joaquin to head northeast.

It appears that the strong jet stream diving around the Southeast low will kick eastward around the base of the low over the next couple of days, pushing the eastern part of the low offshore. Together with the influence of slowly developing 90L, this should keep Joaquin moving on a north to northeast track Friday and Saturday. As Figure 3 suggests, a more northeastward motion would lend confidence in the current expectation of an offshore track, while any significant component of motion toward the west today and Saturday would keep open the door for the far-less-likely possibility of a track hooking around the Southeast upper low. We’ll be watching the 12Z Friday model guidance closely and will have more on the forecast for Joaquin in our afternoon update.


Figure 4. Projected rainfall (in inches) for the 72-hour period from 12Z (8 am EDT) Friday, October 2, 2015, to Monday, October 5. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.

Epic rainfall likely for South Carolina
The latest 3-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is calling for 10 – 15″ inches of rain for the majority of South Carolina, including the cities of Charleston and Columbia.

This forecast assumes that Hurricane Joaquin will not come anywhere close to the state. The rain will be due to what meteorologists call a “Predecessor Rain Event” (PRE) (see this paper on them, h/t to Stu Ostro of TWC: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MWR3243.1). In a Predecessor Rain Event, tropical moisture well out ahead of a landfalling tropical cyclone interacts with a surface front and upper-level trough to produce heavy rainfall, often with significant inland flooding. The PRE can develop well to the left or right of the eventual track of the tropical cyclone. Slow-moving Hurricane Joaquin is perfectly positioned to transport a strong low-level flow of super-moist tropical air that has water vapor evaporated from record-warm ocean waters north of the Bahamas westwards into the Southeast U.S. Once this moisture hits land, it will encounter a cut-off upper low pressure system aloft, with a surface front beneath it, which will lift the moist air, cooling it, and forcing epic amounts of rainfall to fall. The air will also be moving up in elevation from the coast to the Piedmont and Appalachians, which lifts the air and facilitates even more precipitation. Satellite imagery is already hinting at development of this connection of moisture between Joaquin and the Southeast low and frontal system.


Figure 5. The maximum rainfall predicted to fall in any 24-hour period during the 5-day period from 5 am EDT October 2 to 5 am EDT October 7, according to a high-resolution Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model run done by MetStat, Inc. (http://www.metstat.com.) In some areas of North Carolina and South Carolina, 24-hour rainfall amounts one would expect to fall only once in a thousand years are predicted. MetStat computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 8, published in 2013 (http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/.) MetStat does not supply their precipitation recurrence interval forecasts or premium analysis products for free, but anyone can monitor the real-time analysis (observed) at: http://metstat.com/solutions/extreme-precipitation-index-analysis/ or on their Facebook page.

Using about a century of precipitation records, NOAA has constructed a Precipitation Frequency Data Server, which estimates how often we might expect to see extreme rainfall events recur.  According to NOAA’s Precipitation Frequency Data Server, these could be 1-in-1000 year rains for some locations. (Hydrologists would refer to a 1-in-1000-year rain as having a typical “recurrence interval” of 1000 years. The idea is that such events are not always separated by 1000 years; the same amount of rain could conceivably occur the very next year, or might not occur until thousands of years later.) The three-day 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts for Charleston, Greenville and Columbia are 17.1″, 17.8″, and 14.2″, respectively. The 24-hour 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts for Charleston, Greenville and Columbia are 14.8″, 15.9″, and 12.5″, respectively.

The storm to beat in South Carolina is Tropical Storm Jerry of 1995, which dumped up to 18.51″ of rain over a small region of Southwest SC. The storm to beat in nearby eastern North Carolina is Hurricane Floyd, which dumped prodigious amounts of rain in mid-September 1999, less than a month after Hurricane Dennis had drenched the region. Floyd produced a broad stripe of 15″ – 20″ rains, with a maximum total of 24.06″ at a site five miles north of Southport, NC (about 30 miles east of the NC/SC border). To get such widespread multi-day totals outside of a tropical cyclone would be a monumental feat.  Averaged across the state as a whole, the wettest three calendar months in South Carolina weather history are July 1916 (14.41″), September 1924 (13.16″), and September 1928 (12.70″). All of these were related to tropical cyclones passing through or near the state. If the NWS precipitation forecasts are in the right ballpark, then the first few days of October 2015 might approach or even exceed these all-time monthly records for the entire state–without any help from a landfalling hurricane or tropical storm!

Texas and Oklahoma have already notched their wettest months on record (by far) this past May, and Illinois had its second-wettest month on record in June. Our warming climate is making intense short-term rains (such as the highest 1-day totals) even heavier in many parts of the United States and the world, although less research has been done on trends in monthly rainfall.

For more on the science of extremely heavy rainfall, see Bob Henson’s May 2015 post, The Rains of May and the Science of Recurrence Intervals.


Figure 6. Projected maximum flood category for the 24-hour period from noon EDT Friday, October 2, through Saturday, October 3, 2015. The worst impacts today through Saturday are expected through the southern part of the Chesapeake Bay. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.


Figure 7. Strong on-shore winds along the mid-Atlantic coast due to the pressure gradient between Hurricane Joaquin and a strong high pressure system over the Northeast U.S. were creating storm surge heights of 2 – 3′ in many locations, and over 3′ on Virginia’s Delmarva Peninsula. Image credit: Hal Needham.

Long-duration coastal flooding under way
The combination of Hurricane Joaquin, the Southeast U.S. low, and a strong ridge well to the north is leading to an unusually prolonged period of steady onshore flow and high surf along the U.S. East Coast from New Jersey southward to North Carolina. The highest-impact coastal flooding and beach erosion can be expected along the Virginia and Delaware coast, including Ocean City, MD, and the Hampton Roads area of VA, which includes Norfolk and Virginia Beach. The Wakefield, VA, NWS office is calling for several rounds of moderate to severe coastal flooding through the weekend. See the latest blog post from storm-surge expert Hal Needham for more details on this event.

We’ll have an update later this afternoon.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

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Bermuda Marine Forecast

This forecast covers an area out to 25 nautical miles from the coastline
Issued at 11:30 am – Sunday, October 04, 2015
The next scheduled update will be issued at 4:30 pm

Marine Synopsis –

**A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT** As Hurricane Joaquin’s makes its approach, winds increase tropical storm force to storm force this afternoon with a period of hurricane force winds, especially in the west, this evening into the night. Joaquin’s closest point of approach remains near 60 miles, with slow improvement during Monday.

Today –

Winds southeasterly 30 to 40 knots gusts to 50 knots, increasing 40 to 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots later in the afternoon…  Rain and showers with embedded thunderstorms and mainly poor visibility. Building southerly swells… Seas inside the reef 2 to 5 ft… Outside the reef 12 to 18 ft, building…  Sunrise: 7:14 am.

Tonight –

Winds southerly 40 to 50 knots gusts to 60 knots, increasing 55 to 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots, mainly in the west and in elevated areas, decreasing slowly and veering southwesterly overnight…  Rain and showers with embedded thunderstorms and mainly poor visibility. Southerly swells building high… Seas inside the reef 3 to 7 ft… Outside the reef 20 to 35 ft…  Sunset: 7:00 pm.

Monday –

Winds southwesterly 25 to 35 knots gusts to 45 knots, decreasing 20 to 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots by evening, further decreasing 18 to 24 knots with stronger gusts overnight…  Isolated to scattered showers, becoming isolated during the day, with fair to poor visibility… Seas inside the reef 2 to 5 ft… Outside the reef 12 to 20 ft, decreasing during the afternoon inside the reef 2 to 4 ft… Outside the reef 9 to 15 ft…  Sunrise: 7:15 am; Sunset: 6:59 pm.

Tuesday –

Winds southwesterly 16 to 22 knots, decreasing 12 to 18 knots during the morning…  Isolated showers with generally fair visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 7 to 11 ft…  Sunrise: 7:16 am; Sunset: 6:57 pm.

Wednesday –

Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, decreasing 12 to 18 knots during the afternoon…  Isolated to scattered showers with fair to poor visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 5 to 8 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:17 am; Sunset: 6:56 pm.

Thursday –

Winds westerly 12 to 18 knots…  Isolated showers with generally fair visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 2 ft… Outside the reef 5 to 8 ft…  Sunrise: 7:17 am; Sunset: 6:55 pm.


Tides at St George’s (for Great Sound tides, add 10 minutes):
High: 2:30 pm this afternoon: 1.1m/3.6ft, 2:57 am tonight: 1m/3.3ft
Low: 9:14 pm this evening: 0.4m/1.3ft, 9:20 am Monday: 0.4m/1.3ft
Sea Surface Temperature: 26.9°C/80.4°F
Meteorologist: Fred Byrley, Observer: Chris Black

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 021452

WTNT21 KNHC 041450
TCMAT1

HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 66.8W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT……. 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…….160NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 420SE 300SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 66.8W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 67.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 32.8N 65.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.8N 64.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.6N 62.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 38.4N 58.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 42.3N 45.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 200SE 200SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 46.4N 29.9W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 51.4N 19.7W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 66.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

There may be more warnings here: METAREA IV

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Afghanistan: 9 MSF staff killed, 37 people injured (19 were staff) in hospital US airstrike in Kunduz – Published 03 Oct 2015 1000z (GMT/UTC)

UPDATED 03 Oct 2015 10:55 GMT

Air strike kills MSF medical staff in Afghanistan

Nine Doctors Without Borders staff killed in bombing of hospital in Kunduz, as NATO admits it may have been involved.

Surviving MSF staff were in shock after the clinic in Kunduz sustained heavy damage in the bombardment [MSF/Al Jazeera]

Surviving MSF staff were in shock after the clinic in Kunduz sustained heavy damage in the bombardment [MSF/Al Jazeera]

Doctors Without Borders (MSF) says at least nine of its staff have been killed in an overnight bombing of a hospital in the embattled Afghan city of Kunduz.

Another 37 people were wounded in the attack, including 19 MSF staff, the medical charity organisation told Al Jazeera.

NATO said on Friday that a US air strike “may have” hit the hospital, which is run by the medical charity, adding that the attack may have resulted in collateral damage.

An MSF spokesperson told Al Jazeera that the death toll is likely to rise, as the “fluid situation at the clinic hampered information gathering.

“The bombing struck the dormitories of the hospital, which explains why we – so far – have only seen deaths among our staff and not among patients,” MSF spokesperson Dalila Mahdawi said.

The MSF hospital is seen as a key medical lifeline in the region, which has been running “beyond capacity” in recent days of fighting which saw the Taliban seize control of the provincial capital for several days.

“At 2:10 am (20:40 GMT) local time … the MSF trauma centre in Kunduz was hit several times during sustained bombing and was very badly damaged,” MSF said in a statement on Friday.

At the time of the bombing, 105 patients and their caretakers and more than 80 MSF international and national staff were present in the hospital, the charity said.

NATO investigation

NATO said in a statement that US forces conducted an air strike in Kunduz at 2:15am local time “against individuals threatening the force”.

“The strike may have resulted in collateral damage to a nearby medical facility. This incident is under investigation,” the statement said.

MSF said it gave the coordinates of the hospital to Afghan and US forces several times to avoid being caught in crossfire.

“As MSF does in all conflict contexts, these precise locations were communicated to all parties on multiple occasions over the past months, including most recently on 29 September,” according to MSF Afghanistan representatives.

The bombing reportedly continued for more than 30 minutes after US and Afghan military offices in Kabul and Washington were first informed.


Residents tell of suffering as battle for Kunduz rages


“MSF urgently seeks clarity on exactly what took place and how this terrible event could have happened,” MSF said.

The MSF trauma centre in Kunduz is the only medical facility in the region that can deal with major injuries.

Following the attack, the medical charity urged all parties involved in the violence to respect the safety of health facilities, patients and staff.

Speaking to Al Jazeera after the attack, Taliban spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid said that no Taliban fighters were present in the hospital at the time of the air strike.

“We condemn the bombing on the hospital. It was an attack carried out on innocent people.” Zabiullah told Al Jazeera.

“Our mujahedeen (fighters) were not treated at the MSF trauma center due to prevailing military conditions. Such attacks by the US forces have taken place in Afghanistan for years now. This very attack has once again exposed the ruthless colors of the invaders to the Afghans,” he added.

MSF’s hospital is the only facility of its kind in the whole north-eastern region of Afghanistan [MSF]

However, Sediq Sediqqi, an Afghan interior ministry spokesperson, claimed the fighters were attacking security forces with gunfire and grenades from an area near the hospital.

“According to our information, the Taliban were hiding in the hospital building and the area around it while attacking the forces,” Sediqqi said.

“We are assessing and evaluating the collateral damage to the medical facility. However, in any case, the safety of the civilians comes first,” he added.

A caretaker at the hospital, who was severely injured in the air strike, told Al Jazeera that clinic’s medical staff did not favour any side the conflict.

“We are here to help and treat civilians,” Abdul Manar said.

“Several women and children are also killed in the strike. I could hear them screaming for help inside the hospital while it was set ablaze by the bombing. We are terrified and speechless.”

Battle for Kunduz

The development came a day after the Afghan government claimed it had successfully retaken parts of Kunduz from Taliban fighters who had controlled the strategic city since Monday.

The Taliban, however, claimed it remained in control of most of Kunduz, our correspondent said.

Kunduz is facing a humanitarian crisis, with thousands of civilians caught in the crossfire between government forces and Taliban fighters.

Precise losses in the fighting were not known, but health authorities said on Friday that at least 60 people have been killed and 400 wounded.

As fighting spreads in neighbouring Badakhshan, Takhar and Baghlan provinces, concerns are mounting that the seizure of Kunduz was merely the opening gambit in a new, bolder Taliban strategy to tighten the grip across northern Afghanistan.

Afghan forces, backed by NATO special forces and US air strikes, have been going from house to house in Kunduz in a bid to flush Taliban fighters out of the city.

Al Jazeera’s Qais Azimy, reporting from Puli Khumri, about 130km from Kunduz, said heavy fighting was ongoing in the centre of Kunduz.

“Sources inside the city are reporting heavy clashes between the Taliban and the Afghan army. There is no set frontline between the two sides so the fighting is from street to street at the moment.

“People inside the city are suffering. There is a shortage of food, water and electricity,” our correspondent said.

The Taliban’s offensive in Kunduz, their biggest tactical success since 2001, marks a major blow for Afghanistan’s Western-trained forces, who have largely been fighting on their own since last December.

Civilian and military casualties caused by NATO forces have been one of the most contentious issues in the 14-year campaign against the Taliban, provoking harsh public and government criticism.

US-led NATO forces ended their combat mission in Afghanistan last December, though a 13,000-strong residual force remains for training and counterterrorism operations.

But there has been an escalation in air strikes by NATO forces in recent months despite the drawdown.

Additional reporting by Shereena Qazi. Follow her on Twitter @ShereenaQazi

Source: Al Jazeera and agencies

Central Pacific/ Hawaii: Hurricane Ignacio 12E CAT4 301600Z POSITION nr 18.4N 148.5W, moving NNW 10 knots (JTWC) – Updated 30 Aug 2015 1550z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Ignacio 12E CAT4

HAWAII: A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST WATERS (NWS HONOLULU HI)

…..MAJOR HURRICANE IGNACIO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD….CPHC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 36 FEET (JTWC)

ep201512_5day 29a (Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

ep201512_5day 29a
(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceCentral Pacific Hurricane Center

EP122015W1 30

WTPA33 PHFO 301154
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGNACIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
200 AM HST SUN AUG 30 2015

…MAJOR HURRICANE IGNACIO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD…

SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.9N 148.2W
ABOUT 470 MI…750 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 680 MI…1090 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…948 MB…27.99 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE.
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS OF THE
INITIAL ISSUANCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 AM HST…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 148.2 WEST. IGNACIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER OF IGNACIO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE BIG ISLAND ON MONDAY…THEN NORTHEAST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH…220 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGNACIO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. IGNACIO WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES…45 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB…27.99 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII STARTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY…AND STARTING
MONDAY ON MAUI.

RAINFALL…STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES…WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES MAINLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN…ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IGNACIO WILL ARRIVE ALONG EAST
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RESULTANT SURF WILL BE LARGE AND POTENTIALLY
LIFE-THREATENING…ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL
HURRICANE IGNACIO LOCAL STATEMENT

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 12E (Ignacio) Warning #23
Issued at 30/1600Z

ep1215 30

WTPN33 PHNC 301600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (IGNACIO) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (IGNACIO) WARNING NR 023
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301200Z — NEAR 18.0N 148.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 148.2W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z — 19.1N 149.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 20.3N 150.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 21.4N 152.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 22.4N 153.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 24.3N 156.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 26.5N 159.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 28.7N 163.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
301600Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 148.5W.
HURRICANE 12E (IGNACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302200Z, 310400Z, 311000Z
AND 311600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 03C (KILO) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 13E (JIMENA)
WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Tropical Storm Warning

URGENT – MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
346 AM HST SUN AUG 30 2015

…HURRICANE IGNACIO APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST…

.AT 2 AM HST…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS ABOUT 400 NM
EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT.

PHZ122-124-310300-
/O.CON.PHFO.TR.W.2012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
346 AM HST SUN AUG 30 2015

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

* WINDS AND SEAS…POTENTIALLY DISTRUCTIVE WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY
HIGH SEAS MAY AFFECT THESE AREAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT…
SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO SEEK SHELTER ON SHORE.

$$

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1436

WTPA23 PHFO 301445 RRA
TCMCP3

HURRICANE IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE.
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS OF THE
INITIAL ISSUANCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 148.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 5 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT……. 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…….110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 148.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 148.2W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.1N 149.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT…GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 20.3N 150.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.
Marine Zone Forecast
…TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT…

Synopsis: A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN FAR NORTH OF THE STATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS ABOUT 400 NM EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO CUT THROUGH THE ISLAND/S WINDWARD WATERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Today
Northeast winds 20 kt. Wind waves 7 ft. Mixed swell northwest 3 ft and east 5 to 6 ft. Scattered showers in the morning…then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Tonight
North winds 20 kt. Wind waves 7 ft. Mixed swell northwest 3 ft and east 7 to 8 ft. Scattered showers.
Monday
Tropical storm conditions expected. Northwest winds 25 kt. Wind waves 9 ft. Swell east 9 ft. Showers likely.
Monday Night
Tropical storm conditions expected. West winds 25 kt. Wind waves 11 ft. Swell east 10 to 11 ft. Showers likely.
Tuesday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Southwest winds 20 kt. Wind waves 8 ft. Swell east 10 ft. Haze through the day. Showers likely in the morning. Scattered showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. South winds 15 kt. Wind waves 6 ft. Swell east 5 to 6 ft. Haze. Scattered showers.
Wednesday
South winds 15 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. Swell east 8 ft. Haze. Scattered showers.
Wednesday Night
South winds 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Swell east 8 ft. Haze. Scattered showers.
Thursday
Southeast winds 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Swell east 8 ft. Haze. Scattered showers.

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA XII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Caribbean: Tropical Storm Erika 28/1800Z near 17.7N 70.2W, moving W at 15.6 knots (NHC) – Updated 28 Aug 2015 2035z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Erika

…ERIKA SPREADING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

173843W5_NL_sm

000
WTNT35 KNHC 281737
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
200 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

…ERIKA SPREADING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.7N 70.2W
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM SW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 305 MI…490 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Puerto Rico,
Vieques, and Culebra.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Dominican Republic
* Haiti
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas
* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the
progress of Erika.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 70.2 West. Erika has
been moving westward near 18 mph (30 km/h) for the past several
hours. A motion toward the west-northwest is expected to being
later this afternoon or tonight and continue through Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican
Republic and Haiti during the next few hours, move near the Turks
and Caicos Islands tonight, and move near the central and
northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast this afternoon and tonight as
Erika moves over land, followed by little change in strength through
Saturday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
to the east of the center. Punta Cana at the eastern end of the
Dominican Republic has been reporting wind gusts of 40 mph (64 km/h)
for the past few hours.

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data
and surface observations is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently spreading across
portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to spread across Haiti this afternoon, the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later this afternoon and
tonight, and the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday
night.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern and central Bahamas through Saturday.
An additional 1 to 2 inches is expected for Puerto Rico. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Local Statements  

TSR N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 28 Aug, 2015 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ERIKA (AL05) currently located near 17.9 N 71.2 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Dominican Republic
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Haiti
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    the Bahamas
        probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Santo Domingo (18.7 N, 69.9 W)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201505N 28

Other Reports
Dr. Jeff Masters’ Blog
By Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:23 AM EDT on August 27, 2015
Director of Meteorology, Weather Underground
Map of the Caribbean by the CIA World Factbook

Map of the Caribbean by the CIA World Factbook

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm2

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1444

WTNT25 KNHC 281444 RRB
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 69.4W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 68.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.3N 71.4W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…130NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.8N 74.5W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…130NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.3N 77.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…120NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.5N 79.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…120NE 110SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.0N 81.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 28.5N 82.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 30.5N 82.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 69.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BEVEN=

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA IV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Central Pacific/ Hawaii: Hurricane HILDA (10E) CAT4 09/0400Z POSITION nr 14.1N 144.7W, moving WNW 12 knots (JTWC) – Updated 09 Aug 2015 0835Z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Hilda (10E)

(CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…..HILDA REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII……CPHC

HAWAII BE AWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 36 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceCentral Pacific Hurricane Center

EP102015W

probEP102015_150809_0700_sata1

NWS radar Loop from South Shore Hawaii, HI (Long Range Base Reflectivity)

NWS radar Loop from South Shore Hawaii, HI
(Long Range Base Reflectivity)

NWS radar Loop from South Shore Hawaii, HI (Base Reflectivity)

NWS radar Loop from South Shore Hawaii, HI
(Base Reflectivity)

WTPA35 PHFO 090243
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
500 PM HST SAT AUG 08 2015

…HILDA REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.1N 144.5W
ABOUT 800 MI…1285 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1010 MI…1625 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…135 MPH…215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…950 MB…28.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 144.5 WEST. HILDA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H. HILDA IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH…215 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HILDA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT…FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING STARTING ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES…205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB…28.06 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 10E (Hilda) Warning #13
Issued at 09/0400Z

ep1015 9

WTPN31 PHNC 090400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 10E (HILDA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 10E (HILDA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
090000Z — NEAR 13.9N 144.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 144.0W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 14.6N 146.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 15.5N 147.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 16.5N 148.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 17.5N 149.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 19.2N 150.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 20.2N 151.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z — 21.0N 153.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
090400Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 144.7W.
HURRICANE 10E (HILDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 726 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091000Z, 091600Z, 092200Z AND 100400Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0235

WTPA25 PHFO 090235 RRA
TCMCP5

HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
0300 UTC SUN AUG 09 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 144.5W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT…….110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 150SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 144.5W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 144.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.6N 146.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT…GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT…115NE 90SE 80SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.5N 147.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT…GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT…125NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.5N 148.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT…125NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.5N 149.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 80SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.2N 150.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…105NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM

There may be other warnings here:

METAREA XII

FZHW60 PHFO 090340
OFFHFO

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR HAWAII
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
600 PM HST SAT AUG 8 2015

HAWAIIAN OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 40 NAUTICAL MILES OUT TO 240
NAUTICAL MILES INCLUDING THE PORTION OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT EAST OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT
OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN
TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PHZ105-091000-
600 PM HST SAT AUG 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR HAWAIIAN OFFSHORE WATERS…
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HURRICANE HILDA IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
SOUTHEASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS ON TUESDAY AS A HURRICANE THEN WEAK TO
A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

$$

PHZ180-091000-
HAWAIIAN OFFSHORE WATERS
600 PM HST SAT AUG 8 2015

…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY…
…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…

.TONIGHT…E TO NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT…E TO NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. W OF
155W…SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TUESDAY…E OF 154W…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE…E
WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…E OF 154W…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE…E WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.

$$

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081510
TWDEP

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific/Hawaii(US): Hurricane Guillermo 09E CAT2 012100Z 13.8N 140.1W, moving WNW 12 knots (NHC) – Published 010915 2156z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Guillermo (09E)

(CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…GUILLERMO MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather Service
National Hurricane Center

204754W5_NL_sm
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 012040
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015

…GUILLERMO MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…13.8N 140.1W
ABOUT 1070 MI…1725 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB…28.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 140.1 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with
higher gusts. Guillermo should begin to gradually weaken tonight.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future public advisories will be issued by
the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 5 PM HST, under
AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO, and on the web at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

$$
Forecaster Avila

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 012039

WTPZ24 KNHC 012039
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015
2100 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.1W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…….120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.1W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 139.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.3N 141.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 143.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.9N 145.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.7N 146.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.2N 149.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.7N 152.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 155.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 140.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII…UNDER AWIPS
HEADER HFOTCMCP4, WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO, AND ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/CPHC…BEGINNING AT 02/0300Z.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

There may be other warnings here:
METAREA XII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US: Tropical Depression BILL continues to track through N Arkansas, leaving 2 dead in Oklahoma – Flash flood warnings current – Published 190615 1600z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression BILL

FLASH FLOOD & FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENT (Scroll down for more)

Authorities in central Oklahoma have recovered the body of an 80-year-old woman from a car partially submerged in floodwaters. Pottawatomie County Undersheriff Travis Palmer said, the rescue crews in a boat removed the body Thursday evening. They were responding to a report of a vehicle on its side in a flooded area near Macomb, about 45 miles southeast of Oklahoma City. Palmer says it appeared the woman ignored barricades and tried to drive through floodwaters that rose as the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill dropped up to 10 inches of rain on parts of the state. The woman wasn’t immediately identified. The state medical examiner will rule on the cause of death. Earlier Thursday, authorities recovered the body of a 2-year-old boy who was swept from his father’s arms by floodwaters in Ardmore a day before. More than 5,000 young people at a Baptist church camp in southern Oklahoma are being sent home early as the nearby Washita River is expected to reach historic levels. Baptist General Convention of Oklahoma Director Anthony Jordan announced Thursday that campers at Falls Creek near Davis are being sent home, although he said the camp was not directly at risk of flooding. Jordan said in a statement that camp officials were concerned about their ability to provide general maintenance and trash service because of flooding in nearby areas. Jordan says camp activities are being suspended for the rest of the week. Falls Creek spokesman James Swain says there were about 5,400 campers at Falls Creek this week. Authorities have recovered the body of a 2-year-old Oklahoma boy who was swept away by floodwaters while the remnants of a tropical storm were moving through the state.

Ardmore police Capt. Eric Hamblin says Jeremiah Mayer’s body was found Thursday afternoon in a creek about 30 yards from where he was last seen after being swept from his father’s arms late Wednesday. Hamblin says the father was fleeing his home on foot when the floodwater overtook him and swept the boy away. He says the father had to be rescued from the water, which rose 12 to 15 feet in less than an hour. The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill dumped about 10 inches of rain on the area overnight. Authorities have partly reopened a section of a major highway connecting Oklahoma City and Dallas but say it could be days before it can be completely reopened due to a rockslide and high water. The Oklahoma Highway Patrol says northbound traffic on Interstate 35 is being detoured for a four-mile stretch while transportation crews and contractors look to stabilize the rock face next to the road. A tropical depression dumped an estimated 10 inches of rain on the area and helped trigger the rockslide. It says the northbound closure through the Arbuckle Mountains could last for several days is urging motorists to use alternate routes on U.S. Highways 81 or 69. Meanwhile, the agency has reopened the southbound lanes of I-35. Traffic is heavily congested.
Friday, 19 June, 2015 at 10:36 (10:36 AM) UTC RSOE

Tropical Depression BILL Public Advisory from NHC

000
WTNT32 KWNH 191436
TCPAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL022015
1000 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN
ARKANSAS…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…36.3N 91.4W
ABOUT 117 MILES…188 KM…NE OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…25 MPH…40 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS SECTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE…FLOOD WARNINGS
EXTEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS…NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA…LOUISIANA…AND INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS…MISSOURI…AND
ILLINOIS. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST…FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
ACROSS SECTIONS OF ILLINOIS…INDIANA…AND OHIO. FLASH FLOOD AND
FLOOD WATCHES ARE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND OHIO VALLEY.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH…AND LONGITUDE 91.4 WEST. SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL AS IT TRACKS
WELL INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION…MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES WITH TWO SEPARATE
AXES OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. TO THE NORTH OF BILL…MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT. NEAR THE CENTER OF BILL…LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WAS
BEING REPORTED. REPORTED WIND GUSTS NEAR THE CENTER OF BILL WERE
MEASURED AT 26 MPH OR LESS. BILL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND GRADUALLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH…40 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS
——-
RAINFALL…BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO
2 INCHES ACROSS AREAS OF ARKANSAS…INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI. 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WHILE 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE MORE LIKELY
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THESE
RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING…PARTICULARLY IN REGIONS WHICH ARE ALREADY SATURATED
FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL.
RAINFALL TOTALS
—————
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 7 AM CDT

…ARKANSAS…
ROGERS 2.1 SE 4.42
DELIGHT 2.2 WNW 3.74
SPRINGDALE 6.4 WSW 3.31
SILOAM SPRINGS/SMITH FIELD 3.24
FAYETTEVILLE/SPRINGDALE 3.12
HARRISON/BOONE CO. ARPT 2.94
BENTONVILLE 2.82
TEXARKANA RGNL ARPT 2.67
EUREKA SPRINGS 4.0 WNW 2.62
SPRINGFIELD/CAPITAL ARPT 2.49
MOUNTAIN HOME/BAXTER CO. ARPT 1.93
LONOKE 1.2 SSW 1.74
EVERTON 2.1 N 1.67
ST. JOE 2.7 WNW 1.64
ATKINS 1.0 NE 1.51

…ILLINOIS…
SULLIVAN 3 S 4.89
ALLENVILLE 1 S 4.50
ELBURN 4.45
SOUTH CAROL STREAM 4.11
BATAVIA 3.87
ROCHELLE 3.43
MANHATTAN 5 SSE 3.26
OAK PARK 1 SE 3.07
MATTOON 3.03
DIXON 2 SW 2.64
NEWTON 2.58
TUSCOLA 2.29
NORTH AURORA 2 E 2.23
STE. MARIE 2.11
GENEVA 2.10

…INDIANA…
MOROCCO 3.70
NEW ROSS 2 E 2.87
ANDERSON 5 NW 2.30
INDIANAPOLIS INTL ARPT 1.92
EVANSVILLE RGNL ARPT 1.81
CHESTERTON 1.70

…KANSAS…
COFFEYVILLE MUNI ARPT 3.64
COLLYER 2.1 SE 1.45

…LOUISIANA…
SHREVEPORT RGNL ARPT 4.79
BOSSIER CITY 6.7 NNW 3.84
SHREVEPORT 5.3 SSE 2.42
PLAIN DEALING 3.0 ESE 2.13
RUSTON 1.6 NW 1.85

…MISSOURI…
SPRINGFIELD 7 S 5.50
MARSHFIELD 3.6 S 5.48
NIXA 2.7 SSW 4.72
NIANGUA 4.37
SOUTH SPRINGFIELD 3.10
COLUMBIA RGNL ARPT 2.94
LITTON AGRI-SCI CNTR 2.86
JOPLIN RGNL ARPT 2.60
WHITESIDE 2 E 2.50
FORNEY AAF/FORT LEONARDWOOD 2.47
MIDDLETOWN 4 SW 2.34
JEFFERSON CITY ARPT 2.27
KAISER/LAKE OZARK 2.08

…OKLAHOMA…
HEALDTON 3 E 12.53
NEWPORT 11.52
BURNEYVILLE 10.09
SULPHUR 2.5 WSW 8.63
RINGLING 8.27
PAULS VALLEY MUNI APRT 7.35
SULPHUR 7.09
MACOMB 5.2 ESE 5.82
MARIETTA 2.8 SW 5.57
ADA 0.3 NNW 5.45
WEWOKA 7.4 NNW 5.30
NORMAN 3.4 SE 3.61
OKLAHOMA CITY 11.5 S 2.64
MUSKOGEE/DAVIS FIELD AIRPORT 2.55
BARTLESVILLE MUNI ARPT 1.51

…TEXAS…
MONTAGUE 12.50
GANADO 1.5 W 11.77
KIRBYVILLE 1.5 SE 9.51
SEALY 0.3 WNW 9.17
ALICE INTL ARPT 9.03
EL CAMPO 0.5 ENE 8.57
VICTORIA 9 ESE 7.73
ROCKPORT 1.3 WSW 7.51
MANOR 4.7 WSW 7.30
WF SAN JACINTO 7.06
LUFKIN/ANGELINA CO ARPT 6.98
NAVASOTA 8 SE 6.73
FLOUR BLUFF 7 SW 6.59
ARANSAS PASS 1 SSE 6.46
SAN FELIPE 1.0 WNW 6.15
CORPUS CHRISTI 6.14
AUSTIN 4.2 ESE 5.80
SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT 2.91
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL 2.51
FORT WORTH NAS 2.34
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER FANNING

FORECAST POSITIONS
——————
INITIAL 19/1500Z 36.3N 91.4W
12HR VT 20/0000Z 36.9N 89.8W…TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HR VT 20/1200Z 37.9N 87.0W…TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36HR VT 21/0000Z 39.0N 82.4W…POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 21/1200Z 39.2N 77.8W…POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
$$

END

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US: Fairdale, Chicago (IL) tornado kills at least 1, 11 others injured – Published 100415 2010z (GMT/UTC)

At least one person was killed in a northwest suburb of Chicago after a devastating tornado touched down Thursday evening with damage reported in several counties.

The small town of Fairdale, located in DeKalb County, was leveled by the tornado with fire officials confirming at least one person was killed. “The whole town was gone,” said Daniel Prothero, who arrived at the scene shortly after the storm. “It was one of the worst things I’ve ever seen in my life. It was heartbreaking.” Rockford Fire Department division chief Matthew Knott said seven people in various stages of injuries were transported to local hospitals, but he expected that number would change throughout the night as crews continued to search the area. “This town is absolutely devastated by the tornado,” Knott said, noting roughly every structure in the town was damaged by the system. Crews were still working to determine the extent of the damage and were searching for survivors as of 10:30 p.m. Thursday.

Friday, 10 April, 2015 at 04:39 (04:39 AM) UTC RSOE

Update

One resident of a tornado-damaged town in northern Illinois says he ignored an early warning on his cellphone about the impending twister. Sixty-year-old machinist Al Zammuto of Fairdale tells The Associated Press he has received similar warnings before but they have never amounted to anything. Moments after the message arrived, his windows exploded and he took cover. He says he couldn’t believe his eyes when he stepped outside. He says the town looked “like a landfill” and that people were in total shock. Authorities in the tiny community roughly 80 miles northwest of Chicago say one woman died and about 11 others were injured when at least one tornado touched down Thursday evening.

Friday, 10 April, 2015 at 16:57 UTC RSOE

US (Okelahoma): Multiple tornadoes across OK leave at least 1 person dead in Sand Springs & at least 20 injured – Published 270315 1505z (GMT/UTC)

Multiple tornadoes hop-scotched across the state Wednesday leaving at least one person dead in Sand Springs and at least 20 people treated at metro hospitals, four with serious injuries.

Damage in Sand Springs from the tornado (Credit NWS)

Damage in Sand Springs from the tornado (Credit NWS)

  •   The National Weather Service has rated the Sand Springs tornado as an E-F 2. That means it had winds of up to 135 MPH.
  • Classes resume today in Sand Springs and Tulsa schools.
  • The Governor toured the damage area. FEMA expected today.
  • PSO reports only 200  customers are  still without power.

A Norman man also died in a single-vehicle accident during the storm, but police could not confirm whether the wreck was weather-related.

Moore schools are closed Thursday as district officials survey damages. Western Heights schools are also closed. According to the school’s website: “Due to storm damage around our north side schools, we are canceling school Thursday, March 26.”

The National Weather Service in Norman confirmed a tornado touched down about 6:35 p.m. in Moore at SW 4 and crossed Interstate 35 near the Warren Theatres, the area where the May 20, 2013, tornado left 25 people dead. The weather service described the tornado as “weak” and lasting briefly. Baseball-size hail and heavy thunderstorms bombarded the metro area for several hours.

In the Norman fatal accident, a pickup driver died near the 2900 block of E Robinson. The pickup was traveling east on Robinson when it left the road and struck a utility pole. The identity of the driver was withheld Wednesday night, pending notification of family.

Across the state, two tornadoes west of Sands Springs resulted in the death of at least one man in the River Oaks Mobile Home Park. Moore Public Schools announced on its Facebook page that classes were canceled Thursday because of damage across the district. The extent of the damage was not known late Wednesday, according to a district spokesman, but officials expect roof damage, blown-out windows and power outages. An update about the state of the buildings is expected Thursday. Southgate Elementary received extensive damage to its roof.

At least 20 people were treated at local hospitals for everything from bumps and bruises to lacerations suffered in the storm, said Lara O’Leary, EMSA spokeswoman. A University of Oklahoma Medical Center spokeswoman said the hospital received eight patients – four suffered serious injuries and were admitted to the trauma center.

Debris lined streets and hung from trees in south Moore shortly after the storm passed through. Metal carports lay crumpled in the road and wrapped around fences and sheds, and the jagged stumps of trees snapped in half by the strong winds pointed at the dark sky. Sirens filled the evening air as neighbors stood on their front porches, surveying the damage which included one house with a torn-off roof and several others with damage.

At the Furr’s Fresh Buffet, a cafeteria along Interstate 35 in Moore, about 20 customers huddled together in the walk-in coolers as a tornado came close. “It blew a roof out less than a mile away from us,” said manager R.J. Garza. “We just felt the vibration. Once the sirens went on, we sprung into action.” Integris Canadian Valley Hospital in Yukon received the largest amount of wind damage of the Integris hospitals, said Brooke Cayot, Integris Health Systems spokeswoman. The building lost power and was operating on a generator Wednesday night.

Between 500 and 600 people took shelter at Integris Baptist Medical Center, and more than 600 took shelter at Integris Southwest Medical Center. Moore police Sgt. Jeremy Lewis said significant damage was reported from Santa Fe over to Janeway and from SW 4 up to NW 6. Numerous homes in that area lost roofs or had significant structure damage, he said.

A few blocks to the south, one of the three KOMA towers on SW 4 still stood. Just to the east, the steeple of the Moore Church of the Nazarene lay in its front yard. National Weather Service could not confirm how many tornadoes touched down but there were media reports of tornadoes landing in Oklahoma City, Yukon and Norman.

More than 36,000 people lost power in the Oklahoma City metro area due to the weather, according to Oklahoma Gas and Electric. Customers at Taco Bueno, 1109 N Santa Fe in Moore, hid in the walk-in freezer, the same freezer other customers took cover in during the May 20, 2013, tornado. “Afterwards, we started making food by candlelight,” said Olga Ramierez, the district manager.

Friday, 27 March, 2015 at 04:38 (04:38 AM) UTC RSOE

Related:

Grateful Oklahomans salvage belongings after killer storm .

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

More about tornadoes:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado

Sand Springs Tornado Red Cross Relief Drive

Tornado_slider-4

http://media.cmgdigital.com/shared/news/documents/2015/03/27/News_Release_-__Red_Cross_Tornado_Relief_Fundraiser.pdf

Atlantic/ US/ Canada: Post-tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL 04L: 291500Z nr 45.5N 47.1W, moving NE at about 38.2 knots(NHC) – Updated 291514 2200z (UTC)

Post-tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL 04L

……CRISTOBAL BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC……NHC

CRISTOBAL STILL A STRONG POST-TROPICAL STORM ON EASTERN EDGE OF
THE GRAND BANKS – STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO ITS WEST.- CHC

Though Cristobal is no longer a hurricane, it still has hurricane-force winds, and will be a threat to marine interests off the Newfoundland coast today, and to Iceland on Sunday night – Dr. Jeff Masters

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

 

000
WTNT34 KNHC 291449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

…CRISTOBAL BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…45.5N 47.1W
ABOUT 300 MI…480 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 44 MPH…70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…980 MB…28.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 47.1
WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR
44 MPH…70 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES…500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB…28.94 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST…AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION…PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROW

 

Hurricane Track Information

WOCN31 CWHX 291851 CCA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT CORRECTED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:51 PM ADT FRIDAY
29 AUGUST 2014.
———————————————————————
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
NEWFOUNDLAND.

FOR POST-TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL.

THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT BY THE C.H.C ON THIS STORM.

THIS BULLETIN CORRECTS THE TIME OF SECTION 1 HEADER WHICH WAS
9:00 AM AND SHOULD BE 3:00 PM.

CRISTOBAL STILL A STRONG POST-TROPICAL STORM ON EASTERN EDGE OF
THE GRAND BANKS – STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO ITS WEST.

———————————————————————
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3.00 PM ADT.

LOCATION: NEAR 46.7 NORTH 46.0 WEST.

ABOUT 520 KILOMETRES EAST OF ST JOHN’S NL.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 120 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST NEAR 85 KM/H.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

CRISTOBAL HAS FOR THE MOST PART COMPLETED ITS TRANSITION TO
POST-TROPICAL STATUS. PINPOINTING THE EXACT POINT/TIME THESE TYPES
OF STORMS BECOME ‘POST-TROPICAL’ IS NOT EASILY DEFINED AND THE
UNCERTAINTY IS ON THE ORDER OF 3 HOURS. NONETHELESS, HIGH WINDS
REMAIN AROUND THE STORM AND ARE IMPACTING THE HIBERNIA AREA AT THE
TIME OF THIS BULLETIN. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINE OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS PART OF THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION
THAT CRISTOBAL HAS MERGED WITH.

A. WIND.

GUSTS REACHED 90 KM/H ALONG EXPOSED PARTS OF THE AVALON PENINSULA AND
NEAR 70 KM/H INLAND. THESE WINDS WERE NOT TECHNICALLY PART OF THE
HURRICANE/POST-TROPICAL STORM.

B. RAINFALL.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE AVALON ARE NOT PART OF THE REMNANTS
OF CRISTOBAL, BUT INSTEAD ARE FROM THE LARGER LOW THAT THE STORM
MERGED WITH.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

MODERATE TO ROUGH SURF WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE AVALON PENINSULA
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME REMNANT SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL AND FROM THE
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS EXPERIENCED EARLIER.

SPECIAL STATEMENT FOR EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND:

WITH THE PASSAGE OF CRISTOBAL WELL OFFSHORE ITS RAPID FORWARD SPEED
OF TRAVEL OVER THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS MAY HAVE TRIGGERED RAPID
TIDE-LIKE CHANGES IN HARBOUR WATER LEVELS OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME PERIOD FOR THIS WILL BE THROUGHOUT THIS
AFTERNOON AND AREAS MOST PRONE TO THIS EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN
AVALON TO THE BONAVISTA PENINSULA. TROPICAL STORMS THAT HAVE RACED
ACROSS THE GRAND BANKS (MOVING OVER 100 KM/H) IN THE PAST HAVE CAUSED
WATER LEVELS IN HARBOURS TO RISE AND FALL 2 OR 3 TIMES OVER THE SPAN
OF AN HOUR AND FLUCTUATE BY AS MUCH AS 2 OR 3 METRES (6 TO 10 FEET).
THIS IS AN ADVISORY THAT THIS MAY – REPEAT MAY – OCCUR AND INTERESTS
ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE ON THE WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
PREDICTING THE ACTUAL WATER LEVEL CHANGES FOR VARIOUS HARBOURS IS
VERY DIFFICULT HOWEVER.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF VERY HIGH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GRAND BANKS ON THE BACKSIDE (NORTHWEST) OF CRISTOBAL.
THESE WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING. WAVES UP TO 8 OR 9 METRES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GRAND
BANKS.

REPEAT – THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT FROM C.H.C. ON THIS STORM.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

– FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

– STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

– HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

– TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/FOGARTY/MACKINNON

 

 

_______________________________________________

http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/subscription_join_e.html

 

Other

Dr. Jeff Masters� Blog (wunderground.com)

The Tropics Go Quiet World-Wide

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:28 PM GMT on August 29, 2014

Hurricane Cristobal ceased to be at 11 am EDT on Friday, as the storm completed its transition to a powerful extratropical storm. Though Cristobal is no longer a hurricane, it still has hurricane-force winds, and will be a threat to marine interests off the Newfoundland coast today, and to Iceland on Sunday night.

With Cristobal’s transition to an extratropical storm and the demise of the Eastern Pacific’s Tropical Storm Marie earlier today, there are now no named tropical cyclones anywhere in the world–an unusual situation for what is traditionally one of the busiest days of the Northern Hemisphere’s tropical cyclone season. This quiet period appears likely to extend though the weekend, as I don’t expect any new named storms to form anywhere in the world through Sunday.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color image showing Hurricane Cristobal’s off the coast of Massachusetts at approximately 11 am EDT on August 28, 2014. At the time, Cristobal had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.

MARITIME

Graphicast Atlantic

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY /1449

WTNT24 KNHC 291449
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 47.1W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 38 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT…….100NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT…….200NE 270SE 220SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 180SE 700SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 47.1W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 48.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 48.2N 41.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 0NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT…100NE 140SE 130SW 150NW.
34 KT…200NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 51.5N 35.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 90SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT…200NE 250SE 250SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 55.0N 27.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT…150NE 250SE 270SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z…MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.5N 47.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

METAREA4 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1623

FZNT01 KWBC 291623
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

PAN PAN

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC AUG 29
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 30
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 31

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING…
.POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL NEAR 45.5N 47.1W 980 MB AT 1500
UTC AUG 29 MOVING NE OR 055 DEG AT 38 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. WITHIN 100 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 50 TO
65 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. ALSO WITHIN 100 NM NE AND SW
QUADRANTS…140 NM SE QUADRANT…AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 35
TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT…HIGHEST IN SW QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 200 NM NE…270 NM SE…220 NM SW AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 26 FT…HIGHEST IN SW QUADRANT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CRISTOBAL NEAR 51.5N 35.0W 976
MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 90 NM SE…120 NM SW AND 120 NM
NW QUADRANTS WINDS 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 21 TO 33 FT. ALSO WITHIN
200 NM N AND 250 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO
25 FT…HIGHEST IN SW QUADRANT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CRISTOBAL MERGED WITH A NEW LOW
E OF AREA 63N27W DESCRIBED BELOW.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 60N41W 979 MB NEARLY STATIONARY NEXT 6 HOURS THEN WILL
DRIFT E. WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 300 NM S AND SW QUADRANTS…WITHIN
90 NM OF E GREENLAND COAST AND WITHIN 240 NM SW OF A TROUGH FROM
61N47W TO 64N52W TO 67N53W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 23
FT…HIGHEST NEAR 58N44W. ELSEWHERE N OF A LINE FROM 54N35W TO
53N47W TO 54N55W TO 62N60W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N38W 992 MB. WITHIN 180 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS AND 60 NM OF THE E GREENLAND COAST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 57N E OF
43W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH NEW LOW FORMING E OF AREA
NEAR 63N27W 970 MB. N OF 60N E OF 37W AREA OF N TO NW WINDS 25
TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 51N E OF 40W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 61N64W 994 MB. OVER WATERS WITHIN 300 NM N
AND S QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 62N53W 985 MB. WITHIN 180 NM E AND 120 NM
NE QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ALSO WITHIN 240
NM S AND SW QUADRANTS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF
A LINE FROM 50N40W TO 42N70W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT WHERE NOTED WITH POST-TROPICAL CRISTOBAL ABOVE FROM 34N
TO 50N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W AND FROM 35N TO 44N BETWEEN 54W AND
66W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT…EXCEPT S OF 43N W OF 50W
12 TO 30 FT…HIGHEST NEAR 39N54W IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT WHERE NOTED WITH POST-TROPICAL
CRISTOBAL ABOVE…FROM 43N TO 55N E OF 50W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
NEW LOW E OF AREA 63N27W.

.LOW 44N54W 996 MB MOVING SE 20 KT. WITHIN 420 NM NW QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 41N44W 1010 MB. FROM 37N TO 43N BETWEEN
45W AND 58W AREA OF N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N35W 1016 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.

.LOW 37N39W 1010 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WITHIN 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.DENSE FOG. 24 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 57N TO 63N W OF 59W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 54N TO 59N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 43N67W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N52W 1027 MB.

.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI AUG 29.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT AUG 30.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN AUG 31.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF 15N78W
AND WITHIN 180 NM OF 15N80W ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE AND
UPPER LOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 18N81W TO 13N72W
E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 18N86W TO 12N74W
E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.GULF OF MEXICO 36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 88W
AND 91W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
METAREA IV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US/Canada: Tropical Storm Bertha 051500Z near 34.8N 71.9W, moving NNE at 19 knots (NHC) – Updated 050814 1520z (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bertha

…BERTHA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE….

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY BERTHA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS
OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT…..NHC

BERTHA NOW EAST OF THE CAROLINAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD –
EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE – COULD AFFECT EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
WITH RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY – CHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 3-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

000
WTNT33 KNHC 051453
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014

…BERTHA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…34.8N 71.9W
ABOUT 445 MI…715 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH…35 KM/H….AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES…205 KM
FROM THE CENTER…MAINLY TO THE EAST.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY BERTHA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS
OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

 

CANADA

Hurricane Track Information

Hurricane Track Information

Canadian Hurricane Centre symbol Legend

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 37 to 62 kilometres per hourTropical Depression

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of at least 118 kilometres per hourHurricane

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 63 to 117 kilometres per hourTropical Storm

Icon for a storm system that used to be tropical but has since lost most of its tropical characteristicsPost-Tropical Storm

An example showing a Hurricane icon with three parameters; maximum wind 120 Kilometers per hour; local time and day 15:00 Thu/jeu; and the storm name Andrea.

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.

WOCN31 CWHX 051145
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9:00 AM ADT TUESDAY
5 AUGUST 2014.
———————————————————————
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA.

FOR TROPICAL STORM BERTHA.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT.

BERTHA NOW EAST OF THE CAROLINAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD –
EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE – COULD AFFECT EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
WITH RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

———————————————————————
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9.00 AM ADT.

LOCATION: 34.3 NORTH 72.2 WEST.

ABOUT 730 KILOMETRES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 100 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST AT 35 KM/HOUR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT BERTHA WILL PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUD-COVER FROM IT MOVING OVERHEAD. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT RAIN FROM THE POST-TROPICAL PHASE OF THE STORM COULD
AFFECT THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH REGARD TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK TO THE AVALON
DUE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY INTERACT WITH THE STORM.

A. WIND.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY THURSDAY IF THE TROUGH MENTIONED
ABOVE PLAYS A GREATER ROLE IN THE STORM’S TRANSFORMATION.

B. RAINFALL.

RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND THAN
WIND. AT THIS POINT AMOUNTS OF 25 TO 50 MILLIMETRES ARE POSSIBLE
IF THE RAIN MOVES OVER LAND. MORE INFORMATION WILL BECOME AVAILABLE
IN THIS REGARD LATER TODAY.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

THERE WILL BE SOME OCEAN SWELLS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA ESPECIALLY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHEN WAVE
HEIGHTS NEAR 2 METRES ARE EXPECTED. NEWFOUNDLAND WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME OCEAN SWELLS AS WELL ON THURSDAY. LARGE WAVES GIVING POUNDING
SURF MAY REACH 4 METRES FOR SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND WITH MUCH LARGER
WAVES EXPECTED OFFSHORE. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
SOUTH- AND EAST-FACING BEACHES AS THE OCEAN SWELLS ARRIVE.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF EAST SCOTIAN SLOPES AND
LAURENTIAN FAN. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE
SOUTHERN MARITIMES MARINE WATERS. BERTHA WILL ALSO BRING GALE FORCE
WINDS TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS. ANTICIPATE
STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS.

VISIT weatheroffice.gc.ca/hurricane (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

– FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

– STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

– HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

– TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/COUTURIER/FOGARTY
_______________________________________________
http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/subscription_join_e.html

Technical Discussion

 

 

TSR logoN Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 5 Aug, 2014 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm BERTHA (AL03) currently located near 34.8 N 71.9 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St John’s (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Storm Tracker Map

Tropical Storm BERTHA: Storm-centered zoom at 117 hours lead (TSR) Updated 1511 UTC

Storm Tracker Map
Tropical Storm BERTHA: Probability of tropical storm winds to 117 hours lead – TSR Updated 1511 UTC

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Graphicast Atlantic

CANADA: Marine Weather Warnings

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1432

WTNT23 KNHC 051432
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1500 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 71.9W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…….110NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 71.9W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 72.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 37.1N 69.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 39.8N 64.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 150SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 42.5N 59.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 180SE 150SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 45.0N 53.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 240SE 180SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 49.0N 40.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 49.0N 22.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 51.0N 2.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 71.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

METAREA4 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1010

FZNT01 KWBC 051010
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1030 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 05
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 06
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 07

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BERTHA NEAR 38.6N 66.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE…AND 180 NM SE AND 150
NM SW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 26 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL BERTHA NEAR 44.1N 56.4W. WITHIN
30 NM NE AND 90 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 23
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE…180 NM SE…150 NM SW…AND 60
NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW E OF AREA 60N34W 996 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 300 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO
18 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA 57N27W 1000 MB. WITHIN 360 NM SW
AND 480 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH TROPICAL STORM BERTHA
FROM 30N TO 40N BETWEEN 64W AND 73W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL BERTHA DESCRIBED IN WARNINGS
SECTION ABOVE.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 56N TO 61N
BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 55N TO 61N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG OVER FORECAST WATERS W OF A LINE
FROM 62N63W TO 60N54W TO 52N50W.

.HIGH 34N34W 1024 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF AREA.

.HIGH 34N57W 1024 MB MOVING E 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 34N52W 1022 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 55N44W 1015 MB MOVING NW 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 58N45W 1018 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 58N45W 1021 MB.

.HIGH 51N55W 1017 MB MOVING SE 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 48N48W 1018 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 47N41W 1018 MB.

.FORECASTER BELL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC TUE AUG 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED AUG 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU AUG 07.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM BERTHA NEAR 33.4N 72.9W 1005 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG
05 MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 19 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE…180 NM SW QUADRANT
AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER
FORECAST WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W S TO
SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BERTHA NEAR 38.6N 66.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE.
CONDITIONS N OF FORECAST AREA. OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 29N
BETWEEN 70W AND 75W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL BERTHA NEAR 44.1N
56.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS…60 NM NW
QUADRANT AND 180 NM SE QUADRANT. CONDITIONS N OF FORECAST AREA.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL BERTHA NEAR 48.5N
44.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL BERTHA NEAR 49.3N
28.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL BERTHA NEAR 50.3N
14.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ATLC FROM 13.5N TO 21N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT IN E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN FROM FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W NE TO E
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 71W AND 76.5W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
FROM 15N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 70W TO 74W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 8 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 76W
AND 78W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N
BETWEEN 71W AND 78W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN E SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Canada/ US: Tropical Storm Arthur 01L now heading into SW Nova Scotia – warnings in effect – Updated 050714 1200z

Tropical Storm ARTHUR (AL01)

..ARTHUR LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS…
…WEATHER RAPIDLY DETERIORATING OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA… 
NHC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE

HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING INTO NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW
BRUNSWICK. 
– ENVIRONMENT CANADA

Wunderground. com

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm Surge (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

000
WTNT31 KNHC 050844
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

…ARTHUR LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS…
…WEATHER RAPIDLY DETERIORATING OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…43.1N 66.9W
ABOUT 65 MI…105 KM SW OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…981 MB…28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NANTUCKET…AND FOR CAPE COD FROM
PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE

IN ADDITION…HIGH WIND WARNINGS…FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH…
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH…35 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF ARTHUR
WILL BE CROSSING NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS…AND OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH…110
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES…260 KM
FROM THE CENTER. YARTMOUTH IN WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA RECENTLY REPORT A
WIND GUST TO 46 MPH…74 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB…28.97 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA IN CANADA SOON AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION…
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MAINE TODAY…BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERTAKING THE CIRCULATION OF
ARTHUR.

STORM SURGE…COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD
TODAY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER FAR EASTERN MAINE…WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA…AND NEW
BRUNSWICK…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SWELLS ARE ALSO
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THESE SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Storm Surge
Inundation

U.S. Tornado
Potential

NWS Local
Statements
US Watch/
Warning

 

NWS radar Loop from Boston, MA. Long Range Base Reflectivity

NWS radar Loop from Portland, ME. Long Range Base Reflectivity

NWS radar Loop from Caribou, ME Long Range Base Reflectivity

 American Red Cross: Find Your Local Red Cross

CANADA

Canadian Hurricane Centre symbol Legend

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 37 to 62 kilometres per hourTropical Depression

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of at least 118 kilometres per hourHurricane

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 63 to 117 kilometres per hourTropical Storm

Icon for a storm system that used to be tropical but has since lost most of its tropical characteristicsPost-Tropical Storm

 

WOCN31 CWHX 050845
INTERMEDIATE TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 5:54 AM ADT
SATURDAY 5 JULY 2014.
———————————————————————
INTERMEDIATE TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
NEW BRUNSWICK
QUEBEC MARITIME.

FOR POST-TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 AM ADT.

THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT BY THE CHANCE OF ON THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING INTO NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW
BRUNSWICK.

———————————————————————
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9.00 AM ADT.

LOCATION: 43.3N 66.7W

ABOUT 60 KILOMETRES SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 110 KM/HOUR

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST NEAR 40 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 MB

2. SUMMARY OF LATEST INFORMATION.

ARTHUR IS NOW HEADING INTO SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA. RAIN FROM A BAND
TO THE NORTH FED BY ARTHUR AND NORTH OF IT HAS BEEN BRINGING HEAVY
RAIN INTO PARTS OF NEW BRUNSWICK. RAIN DIRECTLY CAUSED BY THE STORN
IS BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSHOWERS INTO SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA.
INCREASING WINDS GUSTING TO 90 KM/H ARE HITTING THE COAST SOUTH OF
YARMOUTH. FURTHER SOUTH BUOY 44024 IS RECORDING WINDS GUSTING
100 KM/H. THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE FROM SATELLTE DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS OF STORM FORCE WINDS WEST OF ARTHUR.

AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE WIND AND RAINFALL FORECAST
FOR THE MARITIMES. FOR QUEBEC, AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
FOR GASPÉ AND EAST AS WELL AS THE BASSE COTE NORD AREA OF EASTERN
QUEBEC AND ANTICOSTI ISLAND. NEWFOUNDLAND WILL BE ISSUEING RAINFALL
WARNINGS THIS MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA AND THE STRAITS
REGION OF LABRADOR

FLOODING DUE TO STORM SURGE CONTINUES TO LOOK
UNLIKELY. FOR WAVE ACTIVITY, THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL
SEE BETWEEN 5-7 METRE WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORE SATURDAY
MORNING AND ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ROUGH AND POUNDING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ARE PROBABLE ALONG MUCH OF
THE COAST WITH THESE WAVES. WAVES MAY REACH 9 METRES ALONG THE
SCOTIAN SLOPE.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

– FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

– STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

– HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

– TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END
_______________________________________________
http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/subscription_join_e.html

 

Canada Severe Weather Alerts

 

Canadian Red Cross

 

TSR logo

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 5 Jul, 2014 9:00 GMT

 

Tropical Storm ARTHUR (AL01) currently located near 43.1 N 66.9 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
 Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the United States
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    St. Pierre and Miquelon
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
        probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
    Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 93 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Storm Surge

MARITIME

 

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0843

WTNT21 KNHC 050843
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NANTUCKET…AND FOR CAPE COD FROM
PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE

IN ADDITION…HIGH WIND WARNINGS…FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH…
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 66.9W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT……. 50NE 100SE 70SW 40NW.
34 KT…….100NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 300SE 420SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 66.9W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.3N 67.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 45.5N 64.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 90SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT…240NE 180SE 180SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 47.0N 61.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…120NE 210SE 210SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 49.5N 57.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 0NE 180SE 180SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 52.5N 54.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 0NE 240SE 180SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 60.0N 51.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 58.5N 50.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 62.1N 43.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.1N 66.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

FZNT01 KWBC 050945
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1030 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC JUL 05
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 06
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 07

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR NEAR 43.1N66.9W 981 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL 05
MOVING NE OR 035 DEG AT 19 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NE
QUADRANT…140 NM SE QUADRANT…100 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 70 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE
QUADRANT…300 NM SE QUADRANT…420 NM SW QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 33 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ARTHUR NEAR 47.0N61.5W 986 MB.
WITHIN 100 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 40 NM NE AND 20 NM NW QUADRANTS
WINDS 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 16 TO 26 FT. ALSO WITHIN 160 NM NE..180
NM SE…160 NM SW…AND 80 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 34 TO 50 KT.
SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ARTHUR NEAR 52.5N54.0W 989 MB.
WITHIN 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 45
KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ARTHUR NEAR 60.0N51.5W. WINDS 35
TO 45 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY
BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ARTHUR NEAR 58.5N50.0W. WINDS 30
TO 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ARTHUR NEAR 62.1N43.2W. WINDS
20 TO 30 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 55N51W 1010 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WITHIN 420 NM S QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 61N36W 1004 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.LOW 65N59W 998 MB MOVING NW 10 KT. WITHIN 360 NM E QUADRANT AND
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 67N62W 1004 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S AND 180 NM
E QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW N OF AREA. CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ABOVE FROM 36N TO
43N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH POST-TROPICAL ARTHUR
ABOVE WITHIN 360 NM E AND NE…540 NM S…AND 180 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH POST-TROPICAL ARTHUR
ABOVE WITHIN 600 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 420 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 45N TO 60N
BETWEEN 37W AND 45W AND FROM 48N TO 53N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 43N TO 53N BETWEEN 44W AND 56W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 53N TO 60N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W
AND FROM 45N TO 56N BETWEEN 50W AND 35W.

.HIGH 56N35W 1018 MB MOVING SE 25 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF AREA.

.HIGH 39N41W 1030 MB NEARLY STATIONARY THEN MOVING NE 15 KT
AFTER 24 HOURS.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N40W 1030 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF AREA.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 37N74W 1023 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 36N60W 1023 MB.

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT JUL 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUL 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUL 07.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 17N
BETWEEN 70W AND 82W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W NE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN
74W AND 82W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 71W AND 82W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN E
SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.n

Tsunami warning issued after 8.0 earthquake in Alaska

Town of #Adak, #Alaska evacuates its 150 residents to shelter after #tsunami warning, official says. http://cnn.it/1iA3CVJ

Tsunami warning for Alaska ends after quake. Wave about 7″ high. Ppl from Adak town gathered on nearby hill during warning – @CBCAlerts 2312utc

KFOR.com

(CNN) — A tsunami warning has been issued for coastal Alaska following a 8.0-magnitude earthquake located about 15 miles from Little Sitkin Island, Alaska.

The quake had a depth of 71 miles, and was expected to produce a “modest” tsunami, according to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

View original post

#AKwx #AK #Attu #Nikolski #Aleutians #Coast #Wx #US #News/ #TSUNAMI WARNING

TSUNAMI WARNING: EQ Mag 8 (upgraded) 30 miles NW of Amchitka, Alaska. http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/

Town of , evacuates its 150 residents to shelter after warning, official says.

Tsunami warning for Alaska ends after quake. Wave about 7″ high. Ppl from Adak town gathered on nearby hill during warning – @CBCAlerts 2312utc

US: PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO Watch 303. WEST-CENTRAL IOWA , NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE NEBRASKA

Pilger, Nebraska, Takes Heavy Hit from Reported Tornado

Particularly Dangerous Situation TORNADO Watch 303. Valid until: 06/17/2014 0300Z http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0303.html

SEL3

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL IOWA
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

…THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION…

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
AINSWORTH NEBRASKA TO 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF TEKAMAH
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 302…

DISCUSSION…THE 19Z OMA SOUNDING SAMPLED A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT
WITH 4000 J/KG MLCAPE…60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR…AND 500
EFFECTIVE SRH. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG HEATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH A RISK FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING TORNADOES…A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT.

AVIATION…TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025.
…MEAD

SSE THE MAP HERE: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0303.html

Pilger, Nebraska, Takes Heavy Hit from Reported Tornado

(Video credit: earthspace101)

US: Dog attack victim, 3, allegedly asked to leave KFC as her scars were ‘disturbing customers’ – Published 160614 1240z

SKY NEWS 6:01am UK, Monday 16 June 2014

KFC ‘Asked Girl To Leave Over Scarred Face’

KFC agrees to pay $30,000 towards the medical bills of Victoria Welcher, who was badly injured in a pitbull attack in April.

Victoria Welcher

A fast food chain has launched an investigation after a three-year-old was allegedly asked to leave a restaurant because her facial injuries were disturbing other customers.

Victoria Welcher, three, was badly injured during an attack by a pit bull dog in April which left her with facial scars and an eye patch.

KFC has said it has launched an investigation after a restaurant employee in Jackson, Mississippi, asked her to leave.

The company said it was also giving $30,000 towards her medical bills.

The allegation was made on Victoria’s Victories, a Facebook page set up to chart the little girl’s recovery after the attack.

A post on the page said: “Last week at KFC in Jackson MS this precious face was asked to leave because her face scared the other diners.”

Kelly Mullins, granny of Victoria Welcher
Kelly Mullins said Victoria now refuses to look in a mirror

KFC spokesman Rick Maynard said: “As soon as we were notified of this report on Friday, we immediately began an investigation, as this kind of hurtful and disrespectful action would not be tolerated by KFC.

“Regardless of the outcome of our investigation, we have apologised to Victoria’s family and are committed to assisting them.

“The company is making a $30,000 donation to assist with her medical bills.”

Victoria’s grandmother Kelly Mullins said they were returning from a doctor’s appointment when they stopped at the KFC.

She told WAPT-TV: “They just told us, they said, ‘we have to ask you to leave because her face is disrupting our customers’.

“She won’t even look in the mirror anymore. When we go to a store, she doesn’t even want to get out of the car.”

Victoria was attacked by pitbulls at her grandfather’s home.

She suffered a broken nose, jaw, cheekbones and right eye socket, lost her right eye and the right side of her face is paralysed, according to her Facebook page.

Source: http://news.sky.com/story/1283024/kfc-asked-girl-to-leave-over-scarred-face

(Video credit: YouTube Videos)

 

US: Airman dies saving daughter’s life during Arkansas tornado – Published 020514 2255z

Airman dies tornado 050114

Master Sgt. Dan “Bud” Wassom II (Photo: US Air Force)

“Master Sgt. Dan “Bud” Wassom II’s last action in this life was using his body to shield his 5-year-old daughter Lorelai as a tornado demolished his house Sunday, said his mother, Pamela Wassom.

At the hospital, Lorelai told anyone who would listen that her father had saved her life, Pamela Wassom said.

“Lorelai kept telling the emergency room people, she said, ‘My daddy saved me; the house exploded and my daddy saved me; he’s a hero,’ ” said the girl’s grandmother. “And he is. He’s a true hero.”

His wife Suzanne is a heroine, said her sister, Teresa Cole. Suzanne Wassom shielded their 7-year-old daughter, Sydney, when the tornado tore through Vilonia, Ark., north of Little Rock. Afterward, she moved both daughters to safety and helped a little boy who lived across the street.

STORY: Truck carried 27 miles by tornado in Arkansas
STORY: Deadly tornadoes lash South

The master sergeant served in the Arkansas Air National Guard’s 189th Airlift Wing for 12 years as a loadmaster. He had a college degree and could have trained to be a pilot, but he liked being a loadmaster too much, his mother told Air Force Times in an interview Thursday.

“We’re a military family,” she said. “His father is retired Air Force. His grandfather was in the Navy. He joined right after 9/11. That boy loved his country. He was patriotic. He even volunteered to go to Kuwait a couple years ago, and he said if it hadn’t been for the wife and kids, he would even have stayed longer.”

Wassom and his father shared a passion for old cars, she said. They rebuilt a 1934 Ford that was in his garage when the tornado destroyed their home.

“It actually survived,” she said. “He and his dad worked on that car. They both loved cars. His favorite cars were Mustangs. But he and his dad would always talk cars. Just a couple of weeks ago, they went on a little mini-trip together to a car show in Oklahoma City. I’m so grateful that they had that memory now of that time they spent. They had a blast.”

Growing up, he was always happy to show his mother how much he loved her, even when doing so made other boys feel socially awkward.

“When you’re talking about teenage boys, they don’t want to be seen kissing their moms or anything like that, but if I had to drop him off someplace, like school — even in high school, when he couldn’t use the car — he didn’t care who was around, he would lean over and kiss me and always hug me,” she said.

That’s the type of kindness that Wassom showed everyone, his mother said.

“I can honestly tell you I don’t know anybody who disliked that boy because he was such a good person,” Pamela Wassom said.

Above everything else, she said, her son was a dedicated father and husband who adored his two daughters and shared every responsibility for raising them with his wife.

“Even before he died, he was a hero,” she said. “He served his country; loved his family, loved God; and he died doing what he did best: being a good father.”” – Jeff Schogol, Air Force Times 6:14 p.m. EDT May 1, 2014

Micronesia/ Marianas/ Iwo Jima: Tropical Depression TAPAH (06W) 020600Z nr 25N 145E, moving NE slowly (JMA) – Updated 020514 1318z

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1405 (TAPAH)(JMA RSMC Tokyo )

TYPHOON TAPAH (06W)(JTWC)

TYPHOON TAPAH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN – NWS GUAM

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satelitte (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

 

WWJP25 RJTD 020600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 42N 149E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1000 HPA
AT 44N 128E MANCHURIA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 44N 128E TO 43N 131E 43N 134E.
COLD FRONT FROM 44N 128E TO 41N 127E 40N 126E 37N 125E 34N 122E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 46N 150E
51N 157E 55N 164E 52N 172E 40N 173E 40N 163E 34N 151E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 54N 163E ALMOST STATIONARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 25N 145E NE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 28N 127E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 35N 170E EAST 15 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

GUAM

Tropical Depression TAPAH (06W) -
Forecast Track and Uncertainty Graphic,
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NO active tropical cyclones at this time
Fri, 02 May 2014 22:57:04 ChST

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Near real-time animated map of global wind and weather:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-214.70,14.53,1071

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MARITIME

WWJP25 RJTD 020600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 42N 149E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1000 HPA
AT 44N 128E MANCHURIA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 44N 128E TO 43N 131E 43N 134E.
COLD FRONT FROM 44N 128E TO 41N 127E 40N 126E 37N 125E 34N 122E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 46N 150E
51N 157E 55N 164E 52N 172E 40N 173E 40N 163E 34N 151E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 54N 163E ALMOST STATIONARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 25N 145E NE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 28N 127E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 35N 170E EAST 15 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
METAREA XI

Specialist weather for mariners: passageweather.com

Marianas (Image: wikipedia.org)

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US: Arkansas and Oklahoma tornadoes: Death toll rises to 17 as forecasters warn more are on the way – Published 280414 1400z

“Forecasters warn further twisters are on the way after a violent start to the US tornado season left at least 17 people dead

U.S. Severe Weather Alerts and Tornado Warnings (link)

At least 17 people have been killed and many more injured in the United States after a powerful storm system saw tornadoes rip through Arkansas and Oklahoma.

A dozen or more twisters tore through central and southern parts of the country, decimating buildings, overturning trucks and bringing down trees and power lines.

National Guard troops have been mobilised in the worst hit areas and rescue workers have been searching debris for victims, as forecasters warned more twisters were on their way.

Storm Locations
A tornado in Arkansas killed 16 people on its 30-mile destructive path

Tornadoes also hit in Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri and Louisiana, causing damage and injuries.

President Barack Obama, who is currently in the Philippines, sent his condolences to those affected and pledged any assistance necessary.

“Your country will be there to help you recover and rebuild, as long as it takes,” he said.

The Arkansas Department of Emergency Management said a large tornado which formed outside Little Rock killed 16 people as it carved a 30-mile path of destruction through the state.

It was the largest of several tornadoes created by a powerful storm system.

Another twister which hit the town of Quapaw, Oklahoma, left one person dead and at least six people injured.

Arkansas tornado
A tornado obliterated homes in Mayflower, Arkansas

It then continued into Kansas, destroying up to 70 homes and injuring 25 people in the city of Baxter Springs.

In Mayflower, Arkansas, one person was killed and 45 homes were destroyed as a tornado swept through.

City alderman Will Elder said: “It’s extremely hazardous here right now. The power lines are down, roads are blocked and they (emergency services) will have to proceed with caution.”

James Firestone, mayor of the Arkansas town of Vilonia said: “It’s chaos right now.”

He said the downtown area “seems like it’s completely levelled”, adding: “There are a few buildings partially standing, gas lines are spewing and fire lines are down. We’ve had some casualties.”

Firefighters from nearby cities, as well as National Guard troops, were heading to the town to help, with the county sheriff’s office reporting a “mass casualty situation”.

Homes in Arkansas have been destroyed by a tornado
The deadly twisters have devastated neighbourhoods

Representative Tim Griffin said: “Tonight, I walked around what was only hours earlier a thriving neighbourhood that is now gone.

“An entire neighbourhood of 50 or so homes has been destroyed.

“Many homes are completely gone except the foundation and there is more devastation like this in other parts of Arkansas.”

Writing on Twitter, Arkansas governor Mike Beebe added: “It’s been a truly awful night for many families, neighbourhoods and communities, but Arkansans always step up to help each other recover.”” – Sky News

A number of tornado warnings were issued. Forecasters are only able to give about 13 minutes warning, although more general tornado watches are issued earlier.
See also:

https://www.facebook.com/GoatysNews

U.S. Severe Weather Alerts and Tornado Warnings(link)

 

Videos

Arkansas and Oklahoma tornadoes: Death toll rises to 17

(Video credit: ITN)

Published on Apr 28, 2014
At least 17 people have died after tornadoes ripped through the southern and central United States. The majority of the victims were in several suburbs of Little Rock in Arkansas. Homes and buildings were destroyed and entire were neighbourhoods were reduced to rubble. A desperate rescue operation is now underway to reach survivors, and local residents have to try and rebuild their lives. Report by Sarah Kerr.

At least 17 killed by deadly tornadoes in U.S.

(Video credit: ARIRANG NEWS)

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Chile earthquake: Five dead and tsunami alert issued after 8.2 quake

Hawaii

Per PTWC, no major tsunami coming. There will be sea level changes + strong currents, so swimmers + boaters need to be aware – @rqskye 0517 UTC (Digital volunteer for disaster relief)

 

 

8.2 quake hits Northern Chile triggering widespread tsunami warning

“Armed Forces are maintaining order on the streets of Iquique amid fires and prison escapes following tsunami evacuation order for South America’s Pacific coast.

A massive earthquake struck off the coast of Northern Chile on Tuesday evening prompting tsunami warnings across the Pacific coast, with evacuation ordered for the entire zone until the early hours of Wednesday morning.

The 8.2 magnitude earthquake struck around 55 miles southeast of Cuya, at 8:46 p.m. local time. So far at least 20 aftershocks have been registered in the area with the largest measuring around 5 on the Richter scale.

That warning was lifted for areas south of Puerto Chacabuco, in Aysén Region, past midnight Tuesday. By 3 a.m. Wednesday morning, it was also removed between the cities of Antofagasta and Valparaíso, including  the islands of San Félix and Juan Fernández archepelago. At time of press it did not include Rapa Nui, or Easter Island.

The Interior Ministry has confirmed five deaths in Iquique and surrounding areas and at least three people seriously injured so far. Minister Rodrigo Peñailillo also stated that fires in Iquique and Arica had been brought under control.

The National Emergency Service (Onemi) said that more than 900,000 people evacuated to safety zones across the nation.” – Santiago Times

http://santiagotimes.cl/8-2-quake-hits-northern-chile-triggering-regional-pacific-wide-tsunami-warning/

Chile Tsunami Update, No Wave expected in the Western Pacific – WestPacWx

A powerful earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 8.2 has struck off the coast of Chile, triggering a tsunami that has already started hitting the coastline.

Already a 2 meter high wave was reported along the Chili coast. At this time tsunami warnings remain in effect for much of the western sea boards of South American and Mexico.

No warnings have been issued for areas in the western pacific. But if the wave generated is strong enough the image below will show where it would hit followed by an image of when it would hit based on tsunami forecast models.

I do want to note though. NO TSUNAMI is expected at this time in the western pacific. NONE! But if it changes we will update you.

Best thing to do stay tuned to updates from your official agency and monitor if any changes habe been put in place.

Time Map

Energy Map

In response to the 8.2 magnitude earthquake the Chilean Red Cross has activated its National Emergency Operations Center & their Disaster Unit in Panama is on alert.

They have received reports of highly successful preventative evacuations along the coast. Since the devastating 2010 earthquake (pictured) the Chilean Red Cross has gone through extensive training making them stronger and more prepared to respond to disaster.” – British Red Cross 1028z 02 Apr 2014

Photo – Carola Solís/Chilean Red Cross 2010

In response to the 8.2 magnitude earthquake the Chilean Red Cross has activated its National Emergency Operations Center & their Disaster Unit in Panama is on alert.

They have received reports of highly successful preventative evacuations along the coast. Since the devastating 2010 earthquake (pictured) the Chilean Red Cross has gone through extensive training making them stronger and more prepared to respond to disaster.

Photo - Carola Solís/Chilean Red Cross 2010

Metro

Chile earthquake: Hawaii tsunami alert issued after quake hits Iquique People embrace on the upper floor of an apartment building after an earthquake in Iquique, Chile (Picture: AP/Cristian Viveros)

A tsunami alert has been issued after a strong earthquake struck off the coast of Chile, leading to at least five deaths.

The 8.2-magnitude quake hit about 100km (62 miles) north-west of the mining port of Iquique at 20:46 local time yesterday, the US Geological Survey said, causing landslides that blocked roads.

Officials said the dead included people who were crushed by collapsing walls or were killed by heart attacks after the quake generated a large tsunami.

epa04150309 A handout image released by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) 01 April 2014 shows a shakemap with the location of a powerful magnitude 8.0 earthquake off the coast of Chile some 100 km from the city of Iquique. A tsunami alert for the Pacific coast has been issued after the quake struck at a relatively shallow depth of 10 km.  EPA/USGS  HANDOUT EDITORIAL USE ONLY A shakemap shows where the earthquake struck (Picture: EPA / USGS)

The tsunami alert has been issued for Hawaii where the initial wave from the earthquake is expected to reach Hawaii at 03:24 local time on Wednesday.

‘An earthquake of this size has the potential to generate a destructive tsunami that can strike coastlines…

View original post 139 more words

Mississippi town evacuated after train derailment spills flammable chemicals

Alternative News & Disaster News

Dozens of families were forced from their southeastern Mississippi homes Friday after a train derailed, tipping over cars carrying fuel oil and methanol and causing officials to grow concerned about another potentially deadly chemical spill.

The Mississippi Department of Motor Vehicles announced that the train, which was traveling from Jackson, Miss. To Mobile, Ala., ran off the tracks at 9 A.M. local time (10 A.M. EST) and that no one was hurt in the incident outside New Augusta.

The approximately 50 people living within a half-mile radius of the accident were evacuated, though, because the train was hauling an ethanol-based product that spilled. Surrounding highways were also shutdown as a precaution because of ethanol’s high flammability. Between 3,000 and 4,000 gallons were spilled, according to local estimates.

“Dozens of families were forced from their southeastern Mississippi homes Friday after a train derailed, tipping over cars carrying fuel oil and methanol…

View original post 131 more words

It’s Officially Too Cold Even for Polar Bears

NewsFeed

Here’s how most jokes about the below freezing temperatures will go today:

Man it’s cold!

How cold is it?

It’s so cold even polar bears aren’t crazy enough to be outside!

Truth is, if you hear this one-liner, it’s likely in reference to Anana, the lone polar bear resident of Chicago’s Lincoln Park Zoo. She’s been moved to a climate controlled environment to stay out of the city’s hyper frigid weather Tuesday, which went as low as 9 degrees below zero.

Typically polar bears inhabit environments that are always this cold. Average winter temperatures in the arctic circle can be as frigid as 40 below, which is what wind chills were expected to be in Chicago on Tuesday. But the animals who live at the North Pole tend to put on a layer of fat before winter sets in that would keep them warm. Zookeepers say Anana hasn’t put…

View original post 81 more words

‘Polar vortex’ to blast frigid air over much of US

New Pittsburgh Courier

SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (AP) — The weather warnings are dire: Life threatening wind chills. Historic cold outbreak.

Winter is normally cold, but starting Sunday tundra-like temperatures are poised to deliver a rare and potentially dangerous sledgehammer blow to much of the Midwest, driving temperatures so far below zero that records will shatter.

One reason? A “polar vortex,” as one meteorologist calls it, which will send cold air piled up at the North Pole down to the U.S., funneling it as far south as the Gulf Coast.

The temperature predictions are startling: 25 below zero in Fargo, N.D., minus 31 in International Falls, Minn., and 15 below in Indianapolis and Chicago. At those temperatures, exposed skin can get frostbitten in minutes and hypothermia can quickly set in because wind chills could hit 50, 60 or even 70 below zero.

Temperature records will likely be broken during the short, yet forceful deep…

View original post 596 more words

US: Frightening Halloween storms cause damage in Mid-South – Suspected Tornado in Caraway, AR; Flooding in Central TX – 011113 0830z

This is a photo of the storm taken near #Caraway, AR that likely produced a tornado. via Firsthand Weather (Photo @ArkansasChasers).

 

(WMC-TV) – “Emergency responders are cleaning up after severe, Halloween night storms moved through some Mid-South counties.

A tornado warning was issued for southeastern Craighead County, central Mississippi County, and northeastern Poinsett county around 8:00 p.m. It has since expired.

At least 10 structures are damaged and five more are destroyed after the severe weather tore through Arkansas. The Craighead County Sheriff’s Office reports trees, power lines and poles are down.

Most of the damage is in Caraway, AR where crews went going door to door to make sure everyone was accounted for, according to KAIT8. Several homes are damaged along with a community center, and gas station.

Five trick-or-treators were missing at one point, but they have since been found. Caraway officials enacted a curfew after the search ended. They say anyone who does not abide by it will be arrested.

Riverside Schools are closed Friday. There are no reports of injuries.

A tornado watch was issued for multiple Mid-South counties in TN including Tipton, Dyer, and Gibson. The watch has since expired. ”

Posted: Nov 01, 2013 12:42 AM GST Updated: Nov 01, 2013 3:51 AM GST
By WMCTV.com Staff

Copyright 2013 WMC-TV. All rights reserved.

fox16.com:

Updated: 10/31 10:07 pm Published: 10/31 8:32 pm
CRAIGHEAD COUNTY, AR — The mayor of Caraway in Craighead County reports some buildings downtown were damaged by a storm just at 7:39 p.m.

Power lines down and some trees have been damaged.

The Craighead County Sheriff’s Office says several trick-or-treaters were missing for about 45 minutes but have now been accounted for.

The National Weather Service and county officials have arrived on the scene and are assessing the damage in Caraway

10/31/13 Caraway, Arkansas Tornado Damage *Nick Hellums*

(Video credit: Live Storms Network)

Published on Oct 31, 2013

Live Storms Media affiliate, Nick Hellums, was able to head across the Mississippi river into Arkansas and shoot some video of structural damage in Caraway, Arkansas shortly after a tornado struck the area this evening. Some trick or treaters were presumed to have been missing, but were found taking shelter during the storm. So far, only minor injuries have been reported. Nick is in place helping the Red Cross with any relief efforts overnight and will return at first light to show us more of the destruction.

Onion Creek and Central Texas

Flooding damage in Onion Creek and south Austin after strong overnight storms Oct. 31, 2013. (Via kens5.com – Photo credit: Chopper5)

In Onion Creek and across Central Texas emergency teams saved hundreds of people in a matter of hours.Those challenging night-time rescues were made even more difficult by raging water. “I was scared,” said Olivia Williamson, a resident of Pflugerville. “It’s scary when you look out there and see it going so fast.” Williamson was inside her Crooked Creek home asleep when the storm surged. “To tell you the truth I was still in bed. I kept hearing water and I couldn’t figure out what was going on and our neighbor came and knocked on the door,” she said. Unable to wade through waist deep water hope floated in. “It’s been fast and furious,” said Pflugerville Fire Chief Ron Moellenberg of the calls for help. Its been one right after the other. Those rescues played out hundreds of times in the dark of night and again during daylight. From those too small to help themselves to family members unable to walk out on their own, each rescue a reminder of how fortunate we are for all those helping hands. .Friday, 01 November, 2013 at 05:08 (05:08 AM) UTC RSOE

myfoxaustin.com:

Sheer devastation in the Onion Creek area of southeast Austin. Forget about cleaning up. These people have nothing to salvage. And now we know one person has lost their life because of the flooding.

As the rushing flood water came through the Onion Creek area of southeast Austin neighbors did what they could to survive. They got on their roofs. That’s where they stayed as they waited for emergency crews in helicopters and rescue boats to save them.

Neighbors cheered as each person was carried to safety. Once the flood victims were out of danger– the raw emotion sunk in. Their homes, cars, every last possession ruined.

As the water receded they got a better look at the damage. Albert Castro took us through his home. The water rose so fast, he barely made it out with his life.

“We swam back this way and it’s a good thing my dad had that ladder there and we made our way up,” said Castro.

But before he and his father got settled, they saved seven people next door. That included Jesus Arriaga his two week old baby, wife and two girls.

“I felt worried because I wanted to get them to safety. You just don’t think about it until it’s going to happen,” Arriaga said.

They climbed out their bedroom window. For four hours the families stayed on the roof before help came.

“Just kept them in my arms, making them feel safe, telling them we’re going to be okay,” Arriaga said.

Debris stretches for blocks. Vehicles were battered and carried far away from where their owners left them.

Late in the day even more tragedy. Julie Robin Jackson found what appeared to be a flood victim.

“I nudged the body and it was heavy. I checked to see if he was breathing and he wasn’t. So and then said a prayer for him,” Jackson said.

Emergency officials checked for other bodies, marking each home and vehicle with an x if clear. What lives still remain have been forever altered.

“We don’t got nothin. I’d rather something than nothing. It’s a big change but we gotta do what we gotta do to make things work,” said Castro.

Onion Creek reopen to foot traffic; 15 homes deemed ‘unsafe’

“9 p.m. update: Austin Energy is reporting that all but 100 customers have power restored in the Onion Creek neighborhoods following the latest bout of severe weather that knocked out power to thousands.

Those customers without power are in the Onion Creek Forest neighborhoods, according to the Austin Travis County Emergency Operations Center, and it is unclear when power would be restored.

Power has also been restored to all Pedernales Electric Cooperative customers who had weather-related outages, said utility spokeswoman Anne Harvey. The utility had nearly 3,000 members without power by around noon. Most were centered near Manchaca, Kyle and Buda, the Johnson City-based nonprofit electric utility said.

The story has been updated to correct that Onion Creek Forest neighborhood still does not have power.

7 p.m. update: Onion Creek neighborhoods that were evacuated Thursday morning from floods have been reopened to residents, according to officials.

Foot traffic has been allowed back into the Onion Creek Forest neighborhoods, but cars are still prohibited until about midnight Friday as Austin Energy works to restore power, police said. Onion Creek subdivision and Onion Creek Planatation have reopened foot and vehicle traffic, but drivers can expect some roads to be closed because of flooding or debris, police said.

Police said they will monitor the areas for suspicious activity and looting and have asked Halloween celebrators to avoid those homes.

Officials have barred residents from returning to 15 homes in the Onion Creek Forest neighborhood because of “unsafe conditions,” officials said. They said that the homes have structural damage, like shifted or collapsed walls, that would be hazardous to those residents.

The city is still tallying how many structures have been flooded and the total cost of the damage.

Two shelters will be opened for evacuees including Parker Lane United Methodist Church at 2105 Parker Lane and Dove Springs Recreation Center at 5801 Ainez Dr.

2 p.m. update: More than 100 people have been rescued from flood waters across Central Texas on Thursday morning after storms dropped more than 12 inches of rain in some areas.

The heaviest rainfall began at 9 p.m. Wednesday and continued to pound the region overnight. Some of the highest totals of 9 inches or more were reported near southern Travis County and Hays County.

In downtown Austin, rainfall totals reached 4 to 5 inches, the National Weather Service reported.

The heaviest storms have moved beyond Central Texas, and some light rain is possible throughout the day, said Steve Smart, meteorologist for the National Weather Service.

“Light showers are still possible,” Smart said. “But the heaviest rains have moved east.”

A flood warning remains in effect for the Colorado River in Travis, Bastrop and Fayette counties.

Some of the heaviest flooding in Austin has been in the Bluff Springs area near Onion Creek, which reached a record high of 41 feet this morning and continues to rise, officials said.

“What we have now is the runoff,” the official, Wendy Morgan, said of the rising water levels.

Austin Fire Chief Rhoda Mae Kerr crews responded to 105 calls for flood-related evacuations or rescues between midnight and 10:30 a.m.

An estimated 500 to 600 homes have been flooded by the Thursday storms, officials said.

In Austin, two boats were rescuing people from flooded homes and roads, while StarFlight plucked people from roof tops. By noon, one boat was being used.

Rescues continue, though not as many as during the height of the storms.

“We saw very significant flooding,” City Manager Marc Ott said at a press conference about noon. He had just returned from a helicopter tour with police Chief Art Acevedo and Kerr. “In some cases people cut holes through rooftops to have access to the outside. While there are no confirmed fatalities, we have many areas that need to be searched.”

The Austin Travis County/Emergency Operations Center was partially activated early this morning. It is now on full activation and officials are focused on monitoring water levels, road conditions and evacuations.

The Texas Parks and Wildlife Department Law Enforcement Division also activated its statewide search and water-rescue team to assist emergency crews. The agency has been working to rescue stranded residents in Travis, Hays, Comal and Bastrop counties.

Wimberley in Hays County posted the highest rainfall total at 12 to 14 inches, National Weather Service forecaster Steve Smart said.

In Travis County, 3 inches to 9 inches or more were reported since storms began.

Round Rock saw 9 inches and Bastrop County has seen 4 inches, officials said.

However, much of the Hill Country received less than a quarter inch, doing little to ease lake levels.

The flooding closed roads throughout the area, knocked out power and forced school closures and cancellations.

To check Austin Energy power outages, click here.

To check road closures in Austin, click here.

Click here for road closures in Hays County.

For road closures in Williamson County, click here.

Road closures in Bastrop County can be found here.

For school conditions, click here.

In Williamson County, officials notified 88 homes of evacuations in three areas of Hutto and Round Rock using a variety of methods, including a notice online. Sheriff’s deputies also knocked on doors on County Road 123 in Hutto telling people to evacuate. Officials also knocked on doors on County Road 135.

Water rescues were conducted along Brushy Creek, including on Ranch Road 620, Shady Lane and Lake Creek Parkway, but none were life-threatening incidents, sheriff’s officials said.

A shelter had been set up at Hutto Middle School, but only one family arrived there, a city official said.

In Wimberley, the community center helped 20 people who evacuated from nearby Mill Race Lane. Those residents left the center by 8 a.m. to return to their homes.

One hundred people took shelter at the San Marcos Activity Center, officials said. That shelter had closed by 11:30 a.m. A shelter at San Cruz Catholic Church at 1100 Main St. remains open for Buda-area residents, officials said.

In Austin, three shelters had been opened: The South Austin Recreation Center, Parker Lane United Methodist Church, and the South Austin Recreation.

By noon, only one shelter, Parker Lane United Methodist Church at 2105 Parker Lane, is open.

The Austin fire chief has ordered Barton Creek and Lady Bird Lake closed through noon Friday.

12:20 p.m. update: In the midst of the rescues, the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department Law Enforcement Division activated its statewide search and water-rescue team to assist emergency crews. The agency has been working to rescue stranded residents in Travis, Hays, Comal and Bastrop counties.

Among the rescues, game wardens assisted in water rescues in the Onion Creek area and homes near Circuit of the Americas near Texas 130.

Austin officials said STARFlight has rescued 29 people since flooding started and that rescues continue.

In Williamson County, officials notified 88 homes in three areas of Hutto and Round Rock using a variety of methods, including a notice online. Sheriff’s deputies also knocked on doors on County Road 123 in Hutto telling people to evacuate. Officials also knocked on doors on County Road 135.

Water rescues were conducted along Brushy Creek, including on Ranch Road 620, Shady Lane and Lake Creek Parkway, but none were life-threatening incidents, sheriff’s officials said.

Pedernales Electric Cooperative said nearly 3,000 members were without power by around noon. Most were centered near Manchaca, Kyle and Buda, the Johnson City-based nonprofit electric utility said.

Update 12:05 p.m.: Several Central Texas shelters are starting to close as displaced residents find new housing options and local waters continue to recede in some areas.

In Austin, the South Austin Recreation Center at 1100 Cumberland Road was closed shortly before noon, leaving the Parker Lane United Methodist Church as the remaining shelter for displaced city residents.

The San Marcos shelter was also closed in Hays County, while the Buda area shelter at San Cruz Catholic Church at 1100 Main St. remains open, officials said.

11:45 a.m. update: An additional 2,000 customers will be without power after crews discovered an Austin Energy substation was flooded, officials said. The substation was taken offline as a result, but crews hope to restore power as soon as possible.

Meanwhile, Bluebonnet Electric Cooperative was reporting 1,280 power outages.

To check on Austin Energy power outages, click here.

Update 11:25 a.m.: The Austin fire chief has ordered Barton Creek and Lady Bird Lake closed through noon Friday.

Update 11:15 a.m.: Austin fire crews are continuing water rescues in the Pleasant Valley area in Southeast Austin, officials said.

Since fire crews responded to the scene of flooding waters in the area at 5 a.m., about 100 people have been rescued by boat or ground crew, said Austin fire official Carrie Stewart.

Another 100 rescues are possible, Stewart added.

There were no immediate reports of any injuries, but crews continue to check for homes and vehicles affected by flooding, she said.

Austin Energy says it now has 5,500 customers without power scattered across their service territory. Flooding continues to trigger delays for repairs in some areas, officials said.

10:55 a.m. update: Although Onion Creek continues to rise, Austin fire crews are starting to wind down operations in the Bluff Springs area.

An estimated 60 people were rescued with the aid of two boats this morning, officials said.

Now, one boat will be left on scene in case it is needed for deployment.

All residents and homes reported to Austin fire officials have been accounted for, but some residents were allowed to remain in their homes, officials said.

“Some did choose to stay in their homes as the water is receding,” said Austin fire official Carrie Stewart.

Onion Creek reached a record high of 41 feet this morning and is continuing to rise, officials said.

“What we have now is the runoff,” the official, Wendy Morgan, said of the rising water levels.

Mandatory evacuations have been ordered for Onion Creek Forest and Plantations subdivisions as well as homes along nearby Pinehurst Drive areas. Emergency crews are also conducting rescues of residents from their roofs and attics in the hardest hit areas of nearby Bluff Springs areas.

As many as 625 homes could be evacuated during rescue efforts, Morgan said, as water levels for homes near the Onion Creek flooding rose to about 8 feet or more.

The city has opened three shelters for area residents or people are encouraged to stay with family and friends.

Earlier: Multiple people have been rescued from flooded creeks across Central Texas on Thursday morning after storms dropped more than 13 inches of rain in some areas overnight.

Since midnight, emergency crews have responded to 81 flood-related incidents within Travis County. That includes 32 water rescues and other rescue alerts, one structure fire caused by lightning and 46 flood assistance and barricade calls, Austin fire officials said.

City of Austin officials say an estimated 500 to 600 homes have been flooded by the Thursday storms.

The heaviest rainfall began at 9 p.m. Wednesday and continued to pound the region overnight. Some of the highest totals of 9 inches or more were reported near southern Travis County and Hays County.

In downtown Austin, rainfall totals reached 4 to 5 inches, the National Weather Service reported.

Some of the heaviest flooding in Austin has been in the Bluff Springs area near Onion Creek.

Fire crews have rescued more than 60 residents who were forced to seek safety on roofs and in their attics, said Austin fire official Carrie Stewart. Two boats are in the water rescuing residents, and a StarFlight helicopter is hovering overhead looking for stranded residents, she said.

Rescues and reports of people on rooftops are still being reported in the area.

Three shelters have been opened for Austin residents displaced by floods, city officials said. The South Austin Recreation Center at 1100 Cumberland Road and Parker Lane United Methodist Church at 2105 Parker Lane near West Oltorf Street and Interstate 35 have been designated as shelters, officials said. The South Austin Recreation Center at 1100 Cumberland Road was opened about 10:15 a.m.

Austin Energy was reporting 8,500 outages by 9 a.m., including 6,500 customers without power in flooded areas, an official said.

To check Austin Energy power outages, click here.

To check road closures in Austin, click here.

Click here for road closures in Hays County.

For road closures in Williamson County, click here.

Road closures in Bastrop County can be found here.

A flash flood watch is in effect more much of Central Texas until noon today.

The City of Austin has issued a watercraft ban on Barton Creek and Lady Bird Lake because of unsafe water conditions, an official said.

Officials have partially activated the Austin-Travis County Emergency Operations Center, where city emergency representatives plan to coordinate response to the heavy rains, flooding and area rescues, a spokeswoman said.

The heaviest storms have moved east, and some light rain is possible throughout the day, said Steve Smart, meteorologist for the National Weather Service.

“Light showers are still possible,” Smart said. “But the heaviest rains have moved east.”

So far, Wimberley in Hays County has posted the highest rainfall total at 12 to 14 inches, Smart said.

In Travis County, anywhere from 3 inches to 9 inches or more were reported since storms began last night.

Round Rock saw 9 inches and Bastrop County has seen 4 inches, officials said.” – statesman.com

Mexico: Low Pressure Area, Invest 97E, has 70% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours – 311013 2325z

Low Pressure Area Invest 97E

(Image: wunderground.com) Computer Models (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1100 AM PDT THU OCT 31 2013

 

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

 

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR A LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO

MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER

DEVELOPMENT…AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TONIGHT OR ON

FRIDAY WHILE THE LOW MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE…70 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND A HIGH CHANCE…80

PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

 

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS

ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT…

 

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

 

FORECASTER BERG

 

 

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

(Image: NHC)

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1130

FZPN02 KWBC 311130
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC THU OCT 31 2013

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTWHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 02.

.WARNINGS.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
.LOW 40N162E 984 MB MOVING NE 25 KT AND INTENSIFYING. WITHIN 180
NM W AND NW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 14 TO 24 FT. ALSO
FROM 31N TO 44N W OF 172E WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 46N W OF 175E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO
18 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N169E 972 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S AND 180 NM
W QUADRANTS WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 18 TO 32 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N174E 966 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S AND SW AND
180 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 22 TO 38 FT. ALSO
FROM 36N TO 53N BETWEEN 172W AND 169E WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14
TO 33 FTHIGHEST NEAR 42N175E. ELSEWHERE FROM 32N TO 55N
BETWEEN 170W AND 167E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 22 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N172W 972 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
48N164W TO 40N172W TO 32N179W. WITHIN 300 NM E AND SE
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 32 FT. ALSO WITHIN 480
NM E AND 420 NM W SEMICIRCLESAND WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT N OF
40N WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM
E OF ENTIRE FRONTAND WITHIN 660 NM E AND 480 NM W SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 22 FT.

GALE WARNING
.LOW 59N149W 980 MB DRIFTING NE AND WEAKENING. WITHIN 300 NM
S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 240 NM NE600 NM SE840 NM W AND SWAND 90 NM NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N148W 1000 MB. WITHIN 540 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 61N149W 1013 MB. FROM 51N TO 56N BETWEEN
133W AND 147W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

GALE WARNING
.LOW 51N179W 1005 MB MOVING E 30 KT AND WEAKENING. WITHIN 300 NM
S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM
42N TO 51N BETWEEN 170W AND 174E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N158W 1016 MB. FROM 43N TO 50N BETWEEN
154W AND 164W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

GALE WARNING
.LOW 44N141W 1018 MB MOVING E 10 KT. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N134W 1020 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N132W 1016 MB. WITHIN 180 NM W AND SW
SEMICIRCLES WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N127W 1008 MB. WITHIN 90 NM NE240 NM
SWAND 120 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE240 NM SE540 NM SWAND 300 NM
NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

GALE WARNING
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 47N154E 1000 MB. FROM 35N TO 45N
W OF 165E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 44N165E 995 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE420 NM
SWAND 180 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO
18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N170E 994 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE360 NM
SWAND 240 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO
23 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 33N TO 48N W OF 179E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 160W AND 177E AREA OF E TO NE WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 540 NM W OF A LINE FROM 30N156W TO
40N143W AREA OF NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 480 NM W OF A LINE FROM 30N155W TO
40N133W AREA OF N TO NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 180 NM OF
43N142W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.

.DENSE FOG. 24 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
FROM 40N TO 49N BETWEEN 174W AND 174E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 240 NM E OF A LINE FROM
51N161W TO 43N169W.

.HIGH 38N130W 1026 MB MOVING NE 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 46N128W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH MOVED INLAND.

.HIGH 33N143W 1028 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 37N176W 1031 MB MOVING NE 25 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 39N162W 1034 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N153W 1036 MB.

.HIGH 53N172E 1012 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC THU OCT 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI NOV 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT NOV 02.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES NEAR 14N108W 1009 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESPOSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONENEAR
17N108W 1008 MB. FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 104W AND 109W S TO SW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESPOSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONENEAR
18N108W 1008 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 17N106W TO
11N110W SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.

.12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W SW WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.30 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC THU OCT 31

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N100W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 14N108W TO 08N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 100
NM N OF AXIS FROM 100W TO 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 106W TO 110W AND FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN
110W AND 116W AND WITHIN 100 NM S OF AXIS FROM 121W TO 126W.

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 31 2013.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 01 2013.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 02 2013.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FRONT FROM 30N162W TO 25N174W TO 24N180E TO 23N172E. FRONT
MOVING E 10 KT N OF 28NNEARLY STATIONARY ELSEWHERE. NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT N OF FRONT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DISSIPATING FRONT FROM 30N155W TO 27N161W TO
26N176W. NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF FRONT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED. ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHED
TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS DIMINISHED TO 8 FT OR LESS.

.TROUGH FROM 30N159W TO 24N162W NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 45 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH MERGED WITH FRONT DESCRIBED ABOVE.

.FRONT NW OF AREA MOVING SE 15 KT. S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N
OF 29N W OF 163E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N167E TO 28N160E. ASSOCIATED
WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N172E TO 26N160E.

.TROUGH FROM 02N165E TO 05N172E TO 09N177E MOVING W 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 179E
AND 170E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 03N160E TO 05N166E TO 10N168E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 04N160E TO 09N164E.

.RIDGE FROM 30N175E TO 25N160E MOVING E 20 KT AND ERODING FROM
THE W.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 8 FT OR LESS.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 167E AND
163E FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 165E AND 162EAND WITHIN 60 NM
OF A LINE FROM 18N167W TO 23N163W.

.ITCZ FROM 08N140W TO 09N159W TO 09N170W TO 07N180W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 161W AND 174W.

$$

.FORECASTER BIRCHARD. HONOLULU HI.=

 

Spanish (Translated by Google)

US: Tornadoes bring chaos to Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, at least 15 injured – 051013 1705z

At least two tornadoes were spotted in the Sioux City region Friday night. Extensive damage was reported outside Wayne, Neb.

The storm tore down power lines and broke trees in the northwest corner of Dakota County, near Dixon County, in Nebraska, but officials weren’t aware of any structural damage by 8 p.m.

The Dakota County Sheriff’s Office sent a deputy to help with the situation in Wayne.

Saturday, 05 October, 2013 at 03:58 (03:58 AM) UTC RSOE

Injuries were reported in Wayne, Neb., where a tornado hit about 5:30 p.m. (6:30 p.m. ET). Providence Medical Center said it was treating seven “walking wounded” and seven others who were injured in auto accidents.

A trauma patient was being treated at a second hospital, it said. At least four homes and the city’s softball complex were destroyed, The Weather Channel reported, and all roads into the city were closed, the Nebraska State Patrol said.

Several people were trapped in a building, and a hazardous materials crew was en route to evaluate a gas leak at a supply company, Jodie Fawl, a spokeswoman for the Nebraska Emergency Management Agency, told The Omaha World-Herald. “The tornado ripped through the east side of town” about three blocks from Wayne State College, Jay Collier, a spokesman for the college, told the Omaha paper. “We are doing everything we can to assist the city.” Lucinda Robertson, a spokeswoman for the Iowa Homeland Security and Emergency Management Department, told NBC News that a tornado was also reported to have touched down in rural Woodbury County. Woodbury County Sheriff’s Lt. Tony Wingert said parts of the area were heavily damaged. “It’s a mess,” Wingert told the Argus Leader newspaper of nearby Sioux Falls, S.D. “We have more than 30 rural homes destroyed, farms destroyed. We don’t have a number for the number of cars destroyed.” So far, no injuries had been reported, he said.

Saturday, 05 October, 2013 at 04:03 UTC RSOE

A storm left a path of damage from Sloan, Iowa, up through the Moville, Iowa, area, said Woodbury County Disaster Services Manager Gary Brown.

He said the storm damaged and destroyed homes, buildings and crops. Crews were assessing the damage. Pea-sized hail was reported in Moville, Iowa, where the National Weather Service said a mile-wide tornado touched down. It was seen just before 7 p.m. Early witness reports indicated that the town had seen major damage. Rural residents ran for their basements after a tornado ripped through a portion of Climbing Hill. Several houses, barns and garages were hit. One home, in the 2700 block of 230th Street, had windows blown out but was left standing. A nearby garage was demolished, and debris was left impaled in one of the barns still standing on the property. The twister stripped trees of bark and limbs, and ripped a hedgerow in half down the road. Garrett Little, who saw the twister touch down in Climbing Hill, said the property belongs to his father-in-law, Ping Davis. Davis was not injured, he said.

Saturday, 05 October, 2013 at 03:59 (03:59 AM) UTC RSOE

A ‘Tornado Emergency’ was declared after reports ofcatastrophic damage in #QUIMBY and the still moving NE towards Cherokee.

What is a TORNADO EMERGENCY?(Link)

Other Reports

Tornadoes cause damage, injuries across Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota

This story was originally published by nbcnews on

KTIV-TV

A tornado in Wayne, Neb., ripped roofs off several structures and injured more than a dozen people Friday.

Multiple tornadoes one of them a mile wide struck Iowa, Nebraska and South Dakota on Friday, injuring up to 15 people and causing significant damage, meteorologists and local authorities said.

The Weather Channel counted 17 reports of tornadoes across the three states. The National Weather Service reported late Friday that it had confirmed six of the reports four of them in Iowa.

The injuries were reported in Wayne, Neb., where a tornado hit about 5:30 p.m. (6:30 p.m. ET). Providence Medical Center said it was treating seven “walking wounded” and seven others who were injured in auto accidents. A trauma patient was being treated at a second hospital, it said.At least four homes and the city’s softball complex were destroyed,The Weather Channel reported, and all roads into the city were closed, the Nebraska State Patrol said.

Several people were trapped in a building, and a hazardous materials crew was en route to evaluate a gas leak at a supply company,Jodie Fawl, a spokeswoman for the Nebraska Emergency Management Agency,told The Omaha World-Herald.

“The tornado ripped through the east side of town” about three blocks from Wayne State College, Jay Collier, a spokesman for the college, told the Omaha paper. “We are doing everything we can to assist the city.”

The Wayne Daily News reported late Friday that many buildings in the town’s main industrial park were destroyed or heavily damaged, along with several homes south of the city.

Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman declared Wayne a disaster area.

Lucinda Robertson, a spokeswoman for the Iowa Homeland Security and Emergency Management Department, told NBC News that a tornado was also reported to have touched down in rural Woodbury County.

Woodbury County Sheriff’s Lt. Tony Wingert said parts of the area were heavily damaged.

“It’s a mess,” Wingert told the Argus Leader newspaper of nearby Sioux Falls, S.D. “We have more than 30 rural homes destroyed, farms destroyed. We don’t have a number for the number of cars destroyed.”

So far, no injuries had been reported, he said.

Major damage was also reported in Quimby, Iowa, after a twister touched down around 7:30 p.m., the National Weather Service said. And preliminary assessments indicated significant damage in the town of Moville, Iowa, where a tornado estimated at a mile wide hit at 6:57 p.m.

The National Weather Service, citing local firefighters, said damage was also reported in Jefferson, S.D., where Steve Stouffer told The Sioux City Journal that he was outside when the storm hit his neighborhood.

“I saw a wall of water coming, and then the wind switched from the east to the south real fast,” he said. “Then I decided it was time to go into the house.”

While scattered tornado watches remained in effect at 10:30 p.m. ET, most advisories across the region had been downgraded to severe thunderstorm warnings.

The National Weather Service said the tornadoes were part of a “supercell” storm system that moved into the Midwest after it dumped almost 3 feet of snow on parts of Wyoming and South Dakota.

At least three deaths have been blamed on the snow after a pickup truck skidded and went out of control Friday morning on snow-slickened U.S. Highway 20 in Dawes County in northeastern Nebraska, investigators said.

Gil Aegerter and Christopher E. Nelson of NBC News contributed to this report.

Videos

Tornadoes Touch Down In Nebraska, Iowa Reports Of Damaged homes, Vehicles Flipped

(Video credit: BreakingNewzStories)

Published on Oct 5, 2013

SIOUX FALLS, S.D. — SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (AP) — A storm system that buried parts of Wyoming and South Dakota in heavy, wet snow on Friday also brought powerful thunderstorms packing tornadoes to the Great Plains.

A storm dumped at least 33 inches of snow in a part of South Dakota’s scenic Black Hills, National Weather Service meteorologist Eric Helgeson said Friday afternoon. Later in the day, thunderstorms rolled across the Plains, and witnesses reported seeing tornadoes in Nebraska, Iowa and South Dakota. There were no reports of deaths from any of the tornadoes.

Earlier in the day, snow was blamed for the deaths of three people who were killed in a traffic accident on snow-slicked U.S. 20 in northeast Nebraska.

Forecasters said the cold front would eventually combine with other storms to make for a wild, and probably very wet, weekend for much of the central U.S. and Southeast.

Some of the greatest damage from tornadoes seemed to be in Wayne, Neb., a town of 9,600 where witnesses said at least four homes were destroyed. Mayor Ken Chamberlain said all of the residents in town were accounted for, but the storm caused millions of dollars in damage to an area that includes businesses and the city’s softball complex.

At least 15 people were hurt in Wayne, but Chamberlain said none of the injuries was considered life-threatening, Chamberlain said. Seven of the injuries stemmed from two separate automobile accidents.

In Iowa, the state’s Iowa Department of Homeland Security said a mile-wide tornado touched down near the town of Cherokee, cutting a 2- to 3-mile path through farmland but missing any population centers.

Meteorologists with the National Weather Service said they were still trying to figure out exactly how many twisters touched down Friday evening from storms that also brought large hail and heavy rain.

The snow in South Dakota prompted officials in Deadwood to postpone their annual Octoberfest, including Friday night’s dancing-and-singing pub crawl and Saturday’s Wiener Dog Races and Beer Barrel Games

10/4/2013 Wayne, NE Tornado Footage from the TWC Storm Riders

(Video credit: StormChasingVideo)

Published on Oct 4, 2013

Brand new footage from Simon Brewer and Juston Drake of The Weather Channels “Storm Riders” show. B-Roll footage of a large multi-vortex transitioning into a mega wedge tornado near Wayne, NE on 10/04/2013 at around 5 PM CDT

Nebraska Tornadoes Wipe Out Farms Debris Found miles away Corn field path of destruction

(Video credit: mamma tejada)

Published on Oct 5, 2013

Nebraska Tornadoes Wipe Out Farms Debris Found miles away Corn field path of destruction. Multiple tornadoes — one of them a mile wide — struck Iowa, Nebraska and South Dakota on Friday, injuring up to 15 people and causing significant damage, meteorologists and local authorities said.
The Weather Channel counted 17 reports of tornadoes across the three states. The National Weather Service reported late Friday that it had confirmed six of the reports — four of them in Iowa.
The injuries were reported in Wayne, Neb., where a tornado hit about 5:30 p.m. (6:30 p.m. ET). Providence Medical Center said it was treating seven “walking wounded” and seven others who were injured in auto accidents. A trauma patient was being treated at a second hospital, it said.
At least four homes and the city’s softball complex were destroyed, The Weather Channel reported, and all roads into the city were closed, the Nebraska State Patrol said.
Several people were trapped in a building, and a hazardous materials crew was en route to evaluate a gas leak at a supply company, Jodie Fawl, a spokeswoman for the Nebraska Emergency Management Agency, told The Omaha World-Herald.
“The tornado ripped through the east side of town” about three blocks from Wayne State College, Jay Collier, a spokesman for the college, told the Omaha paper. “We are doing everything we can to assist the city.”
The Wayne Daily News reported late Friday that many buildings in the town’s main industrial park were destroyed or heavily damaged, along with several homes south of the city.
Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman declared Wayne a disaster area.
Lucinda Robertson, a spokeswoman for the Iowa Homeland Security and Emergency Management Department, told NBC News that a tornado was also reported to have touched down in rural Woodbury County.
Woodbury County Sheriff’s Lt. Tony Wingert said parts of the area were heavily damaged.
“It’s a mess,” Wingert told the Argus Leader newspaper of nearby Sioux Falls, S.D. “We have more than 30 rural homes destroyed, farms destroyed. We don’t have a number for the number of cars destroyed.”

 

Dark Web Rising: McAfee Founder To Launch New ‘NSA Killer’ Privacy Device

TheSurvivalPlaceBlog

darkweb1

By Mac Slavo

Their tentacles are everywhere.

If it’s plugged into the internet there is a near 100% chance that the National Security Agency is monitoring it.

So how does the average American get off the control grid?

According to well known anti-virus software founder John McAfee the answer is simple.

Decentralization.

Rather than connecting to the telecom sponsored (and government integrated) internet, we bypass it completely and connect directly to each other’s devices in a peer-to-peer environment using what is essentially a distributed network architecture.

He’s been working on the new device, dubbed D-Central, for several years but has recently sped up its development in light of revelations that the NSA is tapping the digital interactions and personal correspondence of virtually every American citizen.

The new “NSA Killer” will, according to McAfee, make it difficult if not impossible for the NSA to tap into personal communications…

View original post 380 more words

Mexico/Cuba/US: Tropical Cyclone (Tropical Storm) KAREN 021800Z 25.8N 90.2W, moving NNW at 7.8 knots. Heading for Central Gulf Coast (NHC) – 041013 2045z

Tropical Cyclone (Tropical Storm) KAREN

KAREN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST

 

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

 

Tropical Cyclone Warnings for Cuba and Mexico

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm Surge (Click image for source)

 

Mexico

 

Tropical Cyclone Warning in the Atlantic

 

Aviso Cicln Tropical en el Atlntico

 

Cuba

 

Tropical Cyclone Warning

 

Aviso de Cicln Tropical

 

United States

 

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

 

Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because the information the NHC site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown.

 

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

(Image: NHC)

WTNT32 KNHC 041758
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
100 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

…KAREN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.8N 90.2W
ABOUT 240 MI…385 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 275 MI…445 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY
EARLY SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY…WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO…WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220
KM…MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42001
LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES…50 KM…EAST OF THE CENTER…RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 42 MPH…68 KM/H…AND A WIND GUST OF
54 MPH…86 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB…29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY…1 TO 3 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY…3 TO 5 FT
EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY…1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY…2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY…1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS…WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON
THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT…MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

 

END

 

Other Reports

 

Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog

 

Little Change to Karen; U.S. HIt By a Blizzard, Severe Weather, and Santa Ana Winds

 

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:44 PM GMT on October 04, 2013

 

Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog

Tropical Storm Karen Forms in the Gulf of Mexico
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:09 PM GMT on October 03, 2013

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tropical-storm-karen-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico#qmRpPcwIODi6mrzP.99

 

Tropical Storm Karen is proving resilient in the face of dry air and high wind shear, as the storm heads north-northwest at 10 mph towards Louisiana. A NOAA hurricane hunter plane is in the storm this morning, and found top surface winds near 60 mph and a central pressure of 1001 mb, a pressure 2 mb higher than on Thursday evening. NOAA buoy 42001 located about 60 miles (95 km) north-northeast of the center reported a sustained wind of 38 mph, gusting to 49 mph, at 8:45 am EDT. Satellite loops show that Karen has maintained a vigorous circulation this morning in the face of high wind shear of 25 knots from strong upper-level winds out of the west. These winds have driven dry air from the Western Gulf of Mexico into Karen’s core, making it difficult for heavy thunderstorms to build on the west and south sides of Karen’s center of circulation. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Ocean heat content is 20 – 40 kJ per square centimeter, which is fairly typical for this time of year, and does not increase the odds of rapid intensification. Strong southeasterly winds ahead of Karen are pushing tides about 1 – 1.5′ above normal along most of the Louisiana and Mississippi coast, as seen on our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Karen, taken at approximately 3:30 pm EDT on October 3, 2013. At the time, Karen had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Brooding clouds from Tropical Storm Karen hover over the waters offshore of Cancun, Mexico, at 11 am EDT October 3, 2013. Image credit: Mindy Saylor.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear for the next three days is expected to stay high, around 20 – 30 knots, according to the 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere is quite dry over the Western Gulf of Mexico, and this dry air combined with high wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification possible until landfall. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will bring higher wind shear near 30 knots and turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Saturday. The higher shear, combined with ocean temperatures that will drop to 28°C, may be able to induce weakening, and NHC has sharply reduced its odds of Karen achieving hurricane strength. The 5 am EDT Friday wind probability forecast from NHC put Karen’s best chance of becoming a hurricane as a 23% chance on Sunday at 2 am EDT. This is down from the 41% odds given in Thursday afternoon’s forecast. Most of the models show Karen intensifying by 5 – 10 mb on Saturday afternoon and evening as the storm nears the coast, as the storm interacts with the trough of low pressure turning it to the northeast. This predicted intensification may be because of stronger upper-level outflow developing (due to diverging winds aloft sucking up more air from the surface.) We don’t have much skill making hurricane intensity forecasts, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Karen do the opposite of what the models predict, and decay to a weak tropical storm just before landfall, due to strong wind shear. In any case, residents of New Orleans should feel confident that their levee system will easily withstand any storm surge Karen may generate, as rapid intensification of Karen to a Category 3 or stronger hurricane has a only a minuscule probability of occurring (1% chance in the latest NHC forecast.)

Since Karen is expected to make a sharp course change to the northeast near the time it approaches the south coast of Louisiana, the models show a wide range of possible landfall locations. The European and UKMET models are the farthest west, with a landfall occurring west of New Orleans. The GFS model is at the opposite extreme, showing a landfall about 400 miles to the east, near Apalachicola, Florida. NHC is splitting the difference between these extremes, which is a reasonable compromise. Most of Karen’s heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear when the storm makes landfall, and there will likely be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 – 3″ to the immediate west of where the center. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 – 8″ can be expected to the east. NHC’s 5 am EDT Friday wind probability forecast shows the highest odds of tropical storm-force winds to be at the tip of the Mississippi River at Buras, Louisiana: 66%. New Orleans, Gulfport, Mobile, and Pensacola have odds ranging from 47% – 51%.

Most significant fire threat for Southern California in the past 5 years
A Santa Ana wind event is building over Southern California this morning, where wind gusts in excess of 50 mph have already been observed this morning. From the Los Angeles NWS office:

“Most significant fire weather threat across Southern California in past 5 years as strong Santa Ana wind event unfolds. In addition to the strength of winds being projected…the concerns with this event include the widespread nature and long duration of Santa Ana winds…very long period of single digit humidities…and extremely dry fuels approaching record levels. Red flag warnings are in effect for much of Los Angeles and Ventura counties overnight into Sunday. The onset of the offshore winds are expected to begin across the mountains by late evening…then descend into the lower elevations overnight. The peak of this Santa Ana wind event will likely be late tonight through Saturday morning…with the strongest winds focused across Los Angeles and Ventura counties.”


Figure 3. A moderate risk for severe weather is predicted for this afternoon over Iowa and surrounding states.

A blizzard and a severe weather outbreak in the Midwest
The same low pressure system that is expected to turn Tropical Storm Karen to the northeast this weekend is hammering the Midwest with a variety of extreme weather today. Blizzard warnings are flying in Wyoming, Nebraska, and South Dakota from the storm, and a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes is expected over much of Iowa this afternoon. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has done some research to see the last time a blizzard, major severe weather outbreak, tropical storm, and extreme fire danger all threatened the U.S. at the same time, and has not been able to find such an event in past history.

Portlight disaster relief charity ready to respond to Karen
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, are ready to respond to Tropical Storm Karen, if they are needed. You can check out their progress on the Portlight Blog or donate to Portlight’s disaster relief fund at the portlight.org website.

I’ll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Jeff Masters WunderBlog

 

Hurricane Watches are flying along the U.S. Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen heads north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed about 8 am EDT Thursday in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Its not often that one sees a new storm start out with 60 mph sustained winds, but thats what an Air Force hurricane hunter plane found this morning near 7:30 am EDT, when they sampled the northern portion of the storm. A ship located about 50 miles northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula measured sustained winds of 51 mph near the same time. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm with an area of very intense thunderstorms along its northern and eastern flanks. Wind shear has risen since Wednesday, and is now a moderately high 20 knots, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west-southwest. These strong winds are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the west side of Karens center of circulation, by driving dry air that is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Gulf of Mexico into Karens core. As a result, Karen has a lopsided comma-shape on satellite imagery. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, though, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Between 7 am and 9:30 am EDT the Hurricane Hunters made three passes though the center of Karen, and the central pressure stayed roughly constant at 1004 mb, so Karen is not undergoing much change.
Figure 1. Odds of receiving more than 4″ of rain over a five-day period beginning at 2 am EDT Thursday October 3, 2013, as predicted by the experimental GFDL ensemble model.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear will steadily increase as the storm heads north-northwest, and shear will reach a high 25 knots by Saturday morning as Karen closes in on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere will grow drier as Karen moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification likely through Friday. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday evening and Saturday morning. The higher shear at that time should be able to induce weakening, and the 8 am EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave a 28% chance Karen will be a hurricane at 2 am EDT Saturday, down from 44% on Friday afternoon. Most of the models predict landfall will occur along the western Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon or evening. The usually reliable European model has Karen making landfall over Eastern Louisiana, though. If Karen does follow this more westerly path, the storm will be weaker, since there is more dry air and higher wind shear to the west. Since almost all of Karens heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear, there will be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 3″ to the immediate west of where the center makes landfall. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 8″ can be expected to the east. To judge the possibilities of receiving tropical storm-force winds at your location, I recommend using the NHC wind probability forecast. The highest odds of tropical storm-force winds (45 55%) are along the coast from Buras, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Florida.

Ill have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tropical-storm-karen-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico#qmRpPcwIODi6mrzP.99

 

Hurricane Watches are flying along the U.S. Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen heads north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed about 8 am EDT Thursday in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Its not often that one sees a new storm start out with 60 mph sustained winds, but thats what an Air Force hurricane hunter plane found this morning near 7:30 am EDT, when they sampled the northern portion of the storm. A ship located about 50 miles northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula measured sustained winds of 51 mph near the same time. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm with an area of very intense thunderstorms along its northern and eastern flanks. Wind shear has risen since Wednesday, and is now a moderately high 20 knots, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west-southwest. These strong winds are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the west side of Karens center of circulation, by driving dry air that is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Gulf of Mexico into Karens core. As a result, Karen has a lopsided comma-shape on satellite imagery. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, though, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Between 7 am and 9:30 am EDT the Hurricane Hunters made three passes though the center of Karen, and the central pressure stayed roughly constant at 1004 mb, so Karen is not undergoing much change.
Figure 1. Odds of receiving more than 4″ of rain over a five-day period beginning at 2 am EDT Thursday October 3, 2013, as predicted by the experimental GFDL ensemble model.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear will steadily increase as the storm heads north-northwest, and shear will reach a high 25 knots by Saturday morning as Karen closes in on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere will grow drier as Karen moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification likely through Friday. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday evening and Saturday morning. The higher shear at that time should be able to induce weakening, and the 8 am EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave a 28% chance Karen will be a hurricane at 2 am EDT Saturday, down from 44% on Friday afternoon. Most of the models predict landfall will occur along the western Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon or evening. The usually reliable European model has Karen making landfall over Eastern Louisiana, though. If Karen does follow this more westerly path, the storm will be weaker, since there is more dry air and higher wind shear to the west. Since almost all of Karens heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear, there will be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 3″ to the immediate west of where the center makes landfall. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 8″ can be expected to the east. To judge the possibilities of receiving tropical storm-force winds at your location, I recommend using the NHC wind probability forecast. The highest odds of tropical storm-force winds (45 55%) are along the coast from Buras, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Florida.

Ill have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tropical-storm-karen-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico#qmRpPcwIODi6mrzP.99

 

Hurricane Watches are flying along the U.S. Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen heads north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed about 8 am EDT Thursday in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Its not often that one sees a new storm start out with 60 mph sustained winds, but thats what an Air Force hurricane hunter plane found this morning near 7:30 am EDT, when they sampled the northern portion of the storm. A ship located about 50 miles northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula measured sustained winds of 51 mph near the same time. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm with an area of very intense thunderstorms along its northern and eastern flanks. Wind shear has risen since Wednesday, and is now a moderately high 20 knots, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west-southwest. These strong winds are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the west side of Karens center of circulation, by driving dry air that is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Gulf of Mexico into Karens core. As a result, Karen has a lopsided comma-shape on satellite imagery. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, though, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Between 7 am and 9:30 am EDT the Hurricane Hunters made three passes though the center of Karen, and the central pressure stayed roughly constant at 1004 mb, so Karen is not undergoing much change.
Figure 1. Odds of receiving more than 4″ of rain over a five-day period beginning at 2 am EDT Thursday October 3, 2013, as predicted by the experimental GFDL ensemble model.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear will steadily increase as the storm heads north-northwest, and shear will reach a high 25 knots by Saturday morning as Karen closes in on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere will grow drier as Karen moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification likely through Friday. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday evening and Saturday morning. The higher shear at that time should be able to induce weakening, and the 8 am EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave a 28% chance Karen will be a hurricane at 2 am EDT Saturday, down from 44% on Friday afternoon. Most of the models predict landfall will occur along the western Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon or evening. The usually reliable European model has Karen making landfall over Eastern Louisiana, though. If Karen does follow this more westerly path, the storm will be weaker, since there is more dry air and higher wind shear to the west. Since almost all of Karens heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear, there will be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 3″ to the immediate west of where the center makes landfall. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 8″ can be expected to the east. To judge the possibilities of receiving tropical storm-force winds at your location, I recommend using the NHC wind probability forecast. The highest odds of tropical storm-force winds (45 55%) are along the coast from Buras, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Florida.

Ill have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tropical-storm-karen-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico#qmRpPcwIODi6mrzP.99

 

Hurricane Watches are flying along the U.S. Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen heads north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed about 8 am EDT Thursday in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Its not often that one sees a new storm start out with 60 mph sustained winds, but thats what an Air Force hurricane hunter plane found this morning near 7:30 am EDT, when they sampled the northern portion of the storm. A ship located about 50 miles northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula measured sustained winds of 51 mph near the same time. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm with an area of very intense thunderstorms along its northern and eastern flanks. Wind shear has risen since Wednesday, and is now a moderately high 20 knots, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west-southwest. These strong winds are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the west side of Karens center of circulation, by driving dry air that is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Gulf of Mexico into Karens core. As a result, Karen has a lopsided comma-shape on satellite imagery. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, though, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Between 7 am and 9:30 am EDT the Hurricane Hunters made three passes though the center of Karen, and the central pressure stayed roughly constant at 1004 mb, so Karen is not undergoing much change.
Figure 1. Odds of receiving more than 4″ of rain over a five-day period beginning at 2 am EDT Thursday October 3, 2013, as predicted by the experimental GFDL ensemble model.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear will steadily increase as the storm heads north-northwest, and shear will reach a high 25 knots by Saturday morning as Karen closes in on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere will grow drier as Karen moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification likely through Friday. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday evening and Saturday morning. The higher shear at that time should be able to induce weakening, and the 8 am EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave a 28% chance Karen will be a hurricane at 2 am EDT Saturday, down from 44% on Friday afternoon. Most of the models predict landfall will occur along the western Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon or evening. The usually reliable European model has Karen making landfall over Eastern Louisiana, though. If Karen does follow this more westerly path, the storm will be weaker, since there is more dry air and higher wind shear to the west. Since almost all of Karens heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear, there will be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 3″ to the immediate west of where the center makes landfall. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 8″ can be expected to the east. To judge the possibilities of receiving tropical storm-force winds at your location, I recommend using the NHC wind probability forecast. The highest odds of tropical storm-force winds (45 55%) are along the coast from Buras, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Florida.

Ill have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tropical-storm-karen-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico#qmRpPcwIODi6mrzP.99

 

MARITIME

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

 

AXNT20 KNHC 041804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN AT 04/1800 UTC IS NEAR 25.8N
90.2W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 208 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER…AND ABOUT 240 NM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ABOUT KAREN THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER
WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2…AND THE
FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER
WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. A HURRICANE
WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS
OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 04/1200 UTC…ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES…MIATPTPAN…
IS 0.49 IN MERIDA MEXICO.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N44W 15N47W 10N49W…
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE…TO
LOCALLY STRONG…FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURVES ALONG 18N52W 16N56W…TO
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N57W. THE WAVE WAS
REPOSITIONED IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N49W 24N50W…TO A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N51W. THIS TROUGH IS ENERGY THAT
IS RELATED TO THE 18N52W 14N57W TROPICAL WAVE…THAT WAS
STRETCHED OUT ALONG A NORTH-TO-SOUTH AXIS AT LEAST 24 HOURS AGO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 25N
BETWEEN 45W AND 52W.

…THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W 8N20W 8N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N25W TO 5N35W
AND 5N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N
TO 7N BETWEEN 12W AND 13W…FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 16W AND 17W…
FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W…AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN
42W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N TO THE
EAST OF 50W.

…DISCUSSION…

THE GULF OF MEXICO…

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY COVERS PRACTICALLY ALL THE GULF OF MEXICO AREA THAT IS
TO THE WEST OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL
STORM KAREN. THE EXCEPTION IS THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS TO
THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE EAST OF 96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO…
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N
TO THE WEST OF 70W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W…

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGBK…
KVBS…KDLP…AND AT KEIR. LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE ICAO STATION KSPR. ICAO STATION KATP IS REPORTING A
VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES AND HAZE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR
LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA.

BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS…
IN VICTORIA AND PORT LAVACA…IN GALVESTON AND IN BEAUMONT/PORT
ARTHUR…SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS COVER THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAIN COVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA…AND IN COASTAL ALABAMA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF MARY
ESTHER…LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE CLOUD CEILINGS IN TALLAHASSEE AND
PERRY FLORIDA…BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE AT THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN
AIRPORT AND AT THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST…MIAHSFAT2…AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST…MIAOFFNT4…FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL
STORM KAREN.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…ACROSS HISPANIOLA…INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA…

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N67W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 27N67W CYCLONIC CENTER TO
23N68W…ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…TO
15N73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO
22N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W…AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE
SURROUNDED BY CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH
FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 30 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD AS
THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 500 MB AND FOR 250 MB SHOWS SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL
CUT ACROSS THE AREA AND COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
OR SO.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO…
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N
TO THE WEST OF 70W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 59W/60W FROM 16N TO
22N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS OR LESS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W. THIS FEATURE IS JUST
OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N73W IN COLOMBIA…TO 11N80W IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA…BEYOND 10N86W IN
COSTA RICA…INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 70W AND
81W AT 04/0915 UTC HAS WEAKENED COMPARATIVELY. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 67W AND
85W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO…
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N
TO THE WEST OF 70W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE
27N67W CYCLONIC CENTER. THE EXCEPTION IS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N67W TO
26N73W TO 23N78W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO
28N49W AND 25N49W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 250 NM
TO 400 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH.

A WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N36W TO 25N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION
ELSEWHERE FROM 19N TO 28N BETWEEN 32W AND 42W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 31N24W TO 25N31W…TO 29N47W…TO 32N55W…AND
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N66W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST…MIAHSFAT2…FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 48-HOUR FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO
THE WEST OF 77W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

High Seas Forecast (Tropical Atlantic)FZNT02 KNHC 041532
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 04.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 05.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 06.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TROPICAL STORM KAREN AT 25.6N 90.2W 1003 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 04
MOVING N-NW OR 330 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 GUSTS
55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT…
110 NM SE QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 20
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS TO
33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 27.7N 90.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT…90 NM SE QUADRANT…30 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
120 NM E AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE
N OF 25N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W WINDS TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 29.8N 88.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 55 GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT…120 NM SE QUADRANT…40 NM SW
QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
150 NM E AND 75 NM W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE
N OF 27N FROM 85 TO 90 WINDS TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL KAREN NEAR 33.5N
83.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 25 GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC 48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N W OF 77W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

END

 

Spanish (Translated by Google)

 

Cicln Tropical ( Tropical Storm ) KAREN

KAREN DENOMINACIN DE LA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO

UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* GRAND ISLE- LOUISIANA A OESTE DE DESTIN FLORIDA

AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* MORGAN ciudad de Luisiana hasta la desembocadura del ro Perla

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS
* LAGO MAUREPAS
* Lago Pontchartrain
* DESTIN DE INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

Avisos de Ciclones Tropicales para Cuba y Mxico

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Satlite ( imagen Pica para la fuente )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Previsin de 5 das ( Click en la imagen para la fuente )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Storm Surge ( Click en la imagen para la fuente )

Mxico

Advertencia cicln tropical en el Atlntico

Aviso Cicln Tropical en el Atlntico

Cuba

Cicln Tropical Advertencia

Aviso de Cicln Tropical

Estados Unidos

El tiempo Nacional ServiceNational Hurricane Center

Debido al cierre del gobierno federal , NOAA.gov y sitios web ms relacionados estn disponibles. Sin embargo, como es necesario para proteger la vida y la propiedad de la informacin que el sitio ofrece NHC , se actualiza y se mantiene durante el cierre del gobierno federal.

[ Imagen de la prediccin de 5 das y las zonas costeras bajo una advertencia o un reloj ]

(Imagen: NHC )

WTNT32 TJSJ 041758
TCPSP2

BOLETN
TORMENTA TROPICAL KAREN INTERMEDIA NUMERO 6A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL122013
100 PM CDT vie 04 de octubre 2013

… KAREN DENOMINACIN DE LA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO …

RESUMEN DE LAS 100 PM CDT … 1800 UTC … INFORMACIN
———————————————-
UBICACIN … 25.8N 90.2W
ACERCA DE MI 240 … 385 KM SSW DE LA BOCA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI
ACERCA DE MI 275 … 445 KM SSE DE MORGAN City Louisiana
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 50 MPH … 85 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … NNW O 335 GRADOS A 9 MPH … 15 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 1003 MB … 29.62 PULGADAS

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——————–
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

NINGUNO.

RESUMEN DE LOS RELOJES Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* GRAND ISLE- LOUISIANA A OESTE DE DESTIN FLORIDA

AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* MORGAN ciudad de Luisiana hasta la desembocadura del ro Perla

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS
* LAGO MAUREPAS
* Lago Pontchartrain
* DESTIN DE INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES
DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA . LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SE PUEDE CAMBIAR A A
VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL O AVISO MAS TARDE HOY .

AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS .

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA … GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 48 HORAS.

INTERESES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORESTE DEL GOLFO DE
MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE KAREN .

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … INCLUYENDO POSIBLES
RELOJES Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA … FAVOR DE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR
SU LOCAL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA OFICINA DE PRONOSTICOS .

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
——————————
AT 100 PM CDT … 1800 UTC … EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL Karen
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.8 NORTE … LONGITUD 90.2 OESTE . KAREN ES
MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE – NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH … 15 KM / H. UN GIRO
HACIA EL NORTE Y UNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE AVANCE SE ESPERAN POR
TEMPRANO EL SABADO . UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE SE ESPERA EN
Domingo … CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE AVANCE . EN LA PREVISIN
TRAYECTORIA … EL ​​CENTRO DE KAREN SE ESPERA QUE ESTAR CERCA DE LA COSTA DENTRO
EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL REA DE SBADO POR LA NOCHE .

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH … 85 KM / H…WITH SUPERIOR
RAFAGAS . POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD SE ESPERA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS
SO … CON ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE Sbado noche, domingo .

VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS … 220
KM … MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO . NOAA BOYA 42001
Situado a unos 35 MILLAS … 50 KM … AL ESTE DEL CENTRO … Recientemente
REPORTE UN VIENTO SOSTENIDO DE 42 MPH … 68 KM / H…AND UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE
54 MPH … 86 KM / H.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES 1003 MB … 29.62 PULGADAS.

RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
———————-
VIENTO … CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DE PARTES DE LA
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL zona el sbado . CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON
POSIBLE EN PARTES DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DEL DOMINGO POR LA MAANA .

MAREJADA … LA COMBINACIN DE marejada y la marea CAUSAR
REAS normalmente secas cerca de la costa que se inund por las aguas en aumento.
El agua podra llegar a las siguientes alturas sobre suelo si el
SURGE PICO SE PRODUCE EN EL MOMENTO DE MAREA ALTA …

Al oeste del Mississippi River a Terrebonne Bay … 1 A 3 PIES
BOCA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI AL Mobile Bay … 3 A 5 FT
AL ESTE DE LA BAHA DE MVIL AL OESTE DE baha de Apalache … 1 a 3 pies
Baha de Apalache INCLUYENDO Cedar Key … 2 A 4 FT
SUR DE BAHA APALACHEE a Tampa Bay … 1 a 2 FT

EL AGUA MS ALTO SE PRODUCE POR LA COSTA INMEDIATA CERCA Y AL
AL ESTE DE DONDE SE PRODUCE TIERRA … DONDE LA MAREJADA ESTARA
ACOMPAADO POR OLAS PELIGROSAS . INUNDACIONES SURGE RELACIONADA DEPENDE
LA DISTRIBUCIN RELATIVA DE LA SURGE Y EL CICLO DE MAREA … y puede variar
Mucho en distancias cortas. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU
AREA … FAVOR CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU TIEMPO LOCAL NACIONAL
OFICINA DE SERVICIO .

LLUVIA … KAREN SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A ​​6
PULGADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DEL CENTRO Y ESTE DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO A TRAVES
DOMINGO POR LA NOCHE … PRINCIPALMENTE CERCA Y AL DERECHO DE LA RUTA DE LA
CENTER . CANTIDADES AISLADAS TOTALES DE 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES .

SIGUIENTE AVISO
————-
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA … 400 PM CDT .

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR CRESTA

FIN

Otros informes

Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog

Poco cambio de Karen , EE.UU. golpeado por una tormenta de nieve , tiempo severo , y Santa Ana Vientos

Publicado por : Dr. Jeff Masters , 13:44 GMT del 04 de octubre 2013

Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog

La tormenta tropical Karen se forma en el Golfo de Mxico
Publicado por : Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:09 GMT del 03 de octubre 2013

Obtenga ms informacin en

” La tormenta tropical Karen est demostrando ser resistente frente de aire seco y cortante de vientos fuertes , ya que la tormenta se dirige al norte -noroeste a 10 mph hacia Louisiana. Un avin cazador de huracanes de NOAA es en la tormenta esta maana, y encontr los mejores vientos cerca de la superficie de 60 mph y una presin central de 1001 mb , una presin superior a 2 mb en la noche del jueves . Boya de NOAA 42001 Situado a unos 60 millas ( 95 km) al norte -noreste del centro reportaron vientos sostenidos de 38 mph con rachas de hasta 49 kilmetros por hora, a las 8:45 am EDT. Bucles de satlite muestran que Karen ha mantenido una vigorosa circulacin esta maana frente a la cizalladura del viento mximo de 25 nudos de fuertes vientos de nivel superior fuera del oeste. Estos vientos han impulsado aire seco desde el oeste del Golfo de Mxico en el ncleo de Karen, lo que dificulta a fuertes tormentas que se apoye en los lados oeste y sur del centro de la circulacin de Karen. Karen tiene un canal de salida de nivel superior fuerte para el norte que est ayudando a ventilar la tormenta, y la temperatura de los ocanos son una muy clida 29 C ( 84 bis F). Contenido de calor del ocano es 20 – 40 kJ por centmetro cuadrado, lo que es bastante tpico para esta poca del ao , y no aumenta las probabilidades de una rpida intensificacin. Vientos del sureste fuertes delante de Karen estn presionando mareas cerca de 1 – 1.5 ‘ encima de lo normal a lo largo de la mayor parte de la costa de Louisiana y Mississippi, como se ve en nuestra WunderMap con la capa de la marejada encendido.

Figura 1 . Imagen de satlite MODIS de la tormenta tropical Karen , tomada aproximadamente a las 3:30 pm EDT del 3 de octubre de 2013. En ese momento, Karen tena vientos mximos de 65 mph. Crdito de la imagen : NASA .

Figura 2 . Empollamiento nubes de la tormenta tropical Karen flotar sobre las aguas en alta mar de Cancn, Mxico , a las 11 horas EDT 03 de octubre 2013 . Crdito de la imagen : Mindy Saylor .

Prediccin para Karen
Se espera cizalladura del viento para los prximos tres das se mantengan altos , alrededor de 20 a 30 nudos , segn el pronstico del modelo am EDT 8 BUQUES . El ambiente es muy seco sobre el oeste del Golfo de Mxico , y este aire seco combinado con alta cizalladura del viento retardar el desarrollo , por lo que slo es lento intensificacin posible hasta tocar tierra. Un canal de baja presin y un frente fro asociado se mueve a travs de Louisiana el sbado, y los vientos del oeste en los niveles altos asociados traer mayor cizalladura del viento cerca de 30 nudos y gire Karen ms al noreste , ya que se acerca a la costa el sbado . La cizalla superior, combinado con temperaturas ocenicas que se reducir a 28 C, puede ser capaz de inducir debilitamiento y NHC ha reducido drsticamente sus probabilidades de Karen alcanzar la categora de huracn . El 05 a.m. Viernes Pronstico probabilidad viento EDT del NHC puso mejor oportunidad de convertirse en un huracn como una oportunidad de 23 % el domingo a las 2 am EDT de Karen. Esto est por debajo de los 41 % de probabilidad que figuran en el pronstico de la tarde del jueves . La mayora de los modelos muestran Karen intensificando a 5 – 10 mb en el sbado por la tarde y por la noche mientras la tormenta se acerca a la costa , mientras la tormenta interacta con el canal de girar hacia el noreste de baja presin. Esta intensificacin prevista puede ser causa de salida de nivel superior ms fuerte desarrollo (debido a la divergencia de los vientos en altura chupando ms aire de la superficie. ) No tenemos mucha habilidad haciendo pronsticos de intensidad de huracanes , as que no me sorprendera ver a Karen hacer lo contrario de lo que los modelos predicen , y la decadencia de una dbil tormenta tropical antes de tocar tierra, debido a la fuerte cizalladura del viento . En cualquier caso , los residentes de Nueva Orleans deben sentirse seguros de que su sistema de diques puede soportar fcilmente cualquier marejada Karen puede generar , como la rpida intensificacin de Karen a una categora 3 o ms fuerte huracn tiene slo una probabilidad nfima de ocurrencia ( probabilidad del 1% en las ltimas previsiones NHC ).

Dado que se espera que Karen para hacer un cambio de rumbo brusco hacia el noreste , cerca de la hora que se aproxima a la costa sur de Louisiana, los modelos muestran una amplia gama de posibles ubicaciones recalada . Los modelos europeos y UKMET son el oeste ms lejano , con un avistamiento de tierra que ocurren al oeste de Nueva Orleans. El modelo GFS se encuentra en el extremo opuesto , mostrando un avistamiento de tierra a unos 400 kilmetros al este, cerca de Apalachicola , Florida. NHC es dividir la diferencia entre estos dos extremos , que es un compromiso razonable . La mayor parte de las fuertes tormentas de Karen se desplazar al este con alta cizalladura del viento cuando la tormenta toque tierra , y es probable que haya precipitaciones relativamente bajas totales de 1 – . 3 ” inmediatamente al oeste de donde el centro de lluvias mucho mayores totales de 4 – 8 ” se puede esperar que este. 05 a.m. EDT Viernes Pronstico probabilidad viento del NHC muestra las probabilidades ms altas de los vientos de tormenta tropical para estar en la punta del ro Mississippi en Buras , Louisiana : 66 %. Nueva Orleans , Gulfport , Mobile y Pensacola han probabilidades que van desde 47 % – 51 %.

Amenaza de incendio ms importante para el sur de California en los ltimos 5 aos
Un evento de viento de Santa Ana est construyendo sobre el sur de California esta maana, cuando ya se han observado las rfagas de viento de ms de 50 mph de esta maana. Desde la oficina de NWS Los Angeles :

” Amenaza de tiempo incendios ms importantes en el sur de California en los ltimos 5 aos como un fuerte viento de Santa Ana evento se desarrolla. Adems de la fuerza de los vientos que se proyecta … las preocupaciones con este evento incluyen el carcter generalizado y de larga duracin de los vientos de Santa Ana . .. muy largo perodo de humedades de un solo dgito … y combustibles extremadamente secos llegan a niveles rcord. advertencias banderas rojas estn en vigor durante gran parte de los condados de Ventura durante la noche hasta el domingo en Los Angeles y . se espera que el inicio de los vientos hacia el mar para iniciar a travs de la montaas por la noche tarde … y luego descienden en las elevaciones ms bajas durante la noche. El pico de este evento de viento de Santa Ana probable que sea tarde esta noche hasta el sbado por la maana … con los vientos ms fuertes se centraron en los condados de los Angeles y Ventura . ”

Figura 3 . Un riesgo moderado de tiempo severo se pronostica para esta tarde sobre Iowa y estados vecinos .

Una tormenta de nieve y un brote de mal tiempo en el Medio Oeste
El mismo sistema de baja presin que se espera que pase a la tormenta tropical Karen en el noreste de este fin de semana est martillando el Medio Oeste con una variedad de condiciones climticas extremas hoy. Advertencias de Blizzard estn volando en Wyoming , Nebraska y Dakota del Sur de la tormenta , y un brote importante de tormentas severas con algunos tornados se espera que en la mayor parte de Iowa esta tarde. Wunderground tiempo historiador Christopher C. Burt ha hecho algunas investigaciones para ver la ltima vez que una tormenta de nieve , el mayor brote de mal tiempo , tormenta tropical, y el peligro extremo de incendio todos los amenazados los EE.UU. , al mismo tiempo, y no ha sido capaz de encontrar un evento en la historia pasada .

Portillo desastre caridad alivio listo para responder a Karen
La organizacin de socorro Portlight.org , fundada e integrada por miembros de la comunidad Wunderground , estn listos para responder a la tormenta tropical Karen , si son necesarios . Usted puede comprobar fuera de su progreso en el Blog Portillo o donar al fondo de ayuda humanitaria de Portillo en el sitio web portlight.org .

Voy a tener un nuevo puesto esta tarde.

Jeff Masters

” – Jeff Masters WunderBlog

Huracn relojes estn volando a lo largo de la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. como la tormenta tropical Karen dirige hacia el norte -noroeste hacia el Golfo de Mxico . Karen , la undcima tormenta con nombre de la temporada de huracanes del Atlntico 2013 , se form alrededor de 8 am EDT el jueves en el sudeste del Golfo de Mxico . No es frecuente que se ve una nueva tormenta empiezan con vientos sostenidos de 60 mph , pero eso es lo que un avin cazador de huracanes Fuerza Area encontr esta maana cerca de las 7:30 am EDT , cuando se tomaron muestras de la parte norte de la tormenta. Un barco se encuentra a unos 50 kilmetros al noreste de la punta noreste de la Pennsula de Yucatn midi vientos sostenidos de 51 mph cerca al mismo tiempo. Bucles de satlite muestran que Karen es una tormenta de tamao medio con una zona de tormentas muy intensas a lo largo de sus flancos norte y este . La cizalladura del viento ha aumentado desde el mircoles, y ahora es una moderadamente alta 20 nudos , gracias a los fuertes vientos de nivel superior desde el oeste -suroeste . Estos vientos fuertes se mantienen las fuertes tormentas se desarrolle en el lado oeste del centro de la circulacin de Karen, por la conduccin de aire seco que es la Pennsula de Yucatn y el oeste del Golfo de Mxico en el ncleo de Karen. Como resultado , Karen tiene una coma en forma desigual en las imgenes satelitales . Karen tiene un canal de salida de nivel superior fuerte para el norte que est ayudando a ventilar la tormenta, sin embargo, y las temperaturas ocenicas son un muy clido 29 C ( 84 bis F). Entre las 7 am y las 09:30 am EDT los Hurricane Hunters hicieron tres pases , aunque el centro de Karen , y la presin central permanecieron ms o menos constantes en 1004 mb , por lo que Karen no est pasando por muchos cambios.

Figura 1 . Las probabilidades de recibir ms de 4 ” de la lluvia en un perodo de cinco das a partir de las 02 a.m. EDT jueves 3 de octubre de 2013, segn lo predicho por el modelo GFDL conjunto experimental .

Prediccin para Karen
La cizalladura del viento aumentar constantemente mientras la tormenta se dirige al norte -noroeste , y de corte alcanzar un mximo de 25 nudos por la maana del sbado como Karen se acerca a la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. , segn el ltimo pronstico del modelo BUQUES . El ambiente crecer ms seco que Karen se mueve en el norte del Golfo de Mxico , y el aire ms seco combinado con el aumento de la cizalladura del viento retardar el desarrollo , por lo que slo la intensificacin lento probablemente a viernes. Un canal de baja presin y un frente fro asociado se mueve a travs de Louisiana el sbado, y los vientos del oeste en los niveles altos asociados ser capaz de convertir Karen ms al noreste , ya que se acerca a la costa en la noche del viernes y la maana del sbado . Cuanto ms alto cizallamiento en ese momento debe ser capaz de inducir debilitamiento y el 08 a.m. EDT Jueves probabilidad previsin de viento de NHC dio un 28 % de posibilidades de Karen ser un huracn a las 2 am EDT Sbado , frente al 44 % el viernes por la tarde . La mayora de los modelos predicen que toc tierra ocurrir a lo largo de la Florida Panhandle sbado por la tarde o por la noche occidental. El modelo europeo generalmente fiable Karen ha de tocar tierra sobre Luisiana del Este, sin embargo. Si Karen no seguir este camino ms hacia el oeste , la tormenta ser ms dbil, ya que no hay aire ms seco y ms alta cizalladura del viento del oeste. Dado que casi todos los grandes tormentas de Karen se desplazar al este con alta cizalladura del viento, habr precipitaciones relativamente bajas totales de 1-3 “, inmediatamente al oeste de donde el centro toque tierra . Mucho mayores totales de lluvia de 4-8 ” se puede esperar que este. Para juzgar las posibilidades de recibir los vientos de tormenta tropical en su ubicacin, le recomiendo usar el pronstico del NHC probabilidad viento. Las probabilidades ms altas de vientos de tormenta tropical ( 45 – 55 % ) estn a lo largo de la costa de Buras , Louisiana , a Pensacola , Florida.

Voy a tener un nuevo puesto esta tarde.

Jeff Masters
Obtenga ms informacin en

Huracn relojes estn volando a lo largo de la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. como la tormenta tropical Karen dirige hacia el norte -noroeste hacia el Golfo de Mxico . Karen , la undcima tormenta con nombre de la temporada de huracanes del Atlntico 2013 , se form alrededor de 8 am EDT el jueves en el sudeste del Golfo de Mxico . No es frecuente que se ve una nueva tormenta empiezan con vientos sostenidos de 60 mph , pero eso es lo que un avin cazador de huracanes Fuerza Area encontr esta maana cerca de las 7:30 am EDT , cuando se tomaron muestras de la parte norte de la tormenta. Un barco se encuentra a unos 50 kilmetros al noreste de la punta noreste de la Pennsula de Yucatn midi vientos sostenidos de 51 mph cerca al mismo tiempo. Bucles de satlite muestran que Karen es una tormenta de tamao medio con una zona de tormentas muy intensas a lo largo de sus flancos norte y este . La cizalladura del viento ha aumentado desde el mircoles, y ahora es una moderadamente alta 20 nudos , gracias a los fuertes vientos de nivel superior desde el oeste -suroeste . Estos vientos fuertes se mantienen las fuertes tormentas se desarrolle en el lado oeste del centro de la circulacin de Karen, por la conduccin de aire seco que es la Pennsula de Yucatn y el oeste del Golfo de Mxico en el ncleo de Karen. Como resultado , Karen tiene una coma en forma desigual en las imgenes satelitales . Karen tiene un canal de salida de nivel superior fuerte para el norte que est ayudando a ventilar la tormenta, sin embargo, y las temperaturas ocenicas son un muy clido 29 C ( 84 bis F). Entre las 7 am y las 09:30 am EDT los Hurricane Hunters hicieron tres pases , aunque el centro de Karen , y la presin central permanecieron ms o menos constantes en 1004 mb , por lo que Karen no est pasando por muchos cambios.

Figura 1 . Las probabilidades de recibir ms de 4 ” de la lluvia en un perodo de cinco das a partir de las 02 a.m. EDT jueves 3 de octubre de 2013, segn lo predicho por el modelo GFDL conjunto experimental .

Prediccin para Karen
La cizalladura del viento aumentar constantemente mientras la tormenta se dirige al norte -noroeste , y de corte alcanzar un mximo de 25 nudos por la maana del sbado como Karen se acerca a la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. , segn el ltimo pronstico del modelo BUQUES . El ambiente crecer ms seco que Karen se mueve en el norte del Golfo de Mxico , y el aire ms seco combinado con el aumento de la cizalladura del viento retardar el desarrollo , por lo que slo la intensificacin lento probablemente a viernes. Un canal de baja presin y un frente fro asociado se mueve a travs de Louisiana el sbado, y los vientos del oeste en los niveles altos asociados ser capaz de convertir Karen ms al noreste , ya que se acerca a la costa en la noche del viernes y la maana del sbado . Cuanto ms alto cizallamiento en ese momento debe ser capaz de inducir debilitamiento y el 08 a.m. EDT Jueves probabilidad previsin de viento de NHC dio un 28 % de posibilidades de Karen ser un huracn a las 2 am EDT Sbado , frente al 44 % el viernes por la tarde . La mayora de los modelos predicen que toc tierra ocurrir a lo largo del Panhandle de Florida el sbado por la tarde o por la noche occidental. El modelo europeo generalmente fiable Karen ha de tocar tierra sobre Luisiana del Este, sin embargo. Si Karen no seguir este camino ms hacia el oeste , la tormenta ser ms dbil, ya que no hay aire ms seco y ms alta cizalladura del viento del oeste. Dado que casi todos los grandes tormentas de Karen se desplazar al este con alta cizalladura del viento, habr precipitaciones relativamente bajas totales de 1-3 “, inmediatamente al oeste de donde el centro toque tierra . Mucho mayores totales de lluvia de 4-8 ” se puede esperar que este. Para juzgar las posibilidades de recibir los vientos de tormenta tropical en su ubicacin, le recomiendo usar el pronstico del NHC probabilidad viento. Las probabilidades ms altas de vientos de tormenta tropical ( 45 – 55 % ) estn a lo largo de la costa de Buras , Louisiana , a Pensacola , Florida.

Voy a tener un nuevo puesto esta tarde.

Jeff Masters
Obtenga ms informacin en

Huracn relojes estn volando a lo largo de la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. como la tormenta tropical Karen dirige hacia el norte -noroeste hacia el Golfo de Mxico . Karen , la undcima tormenta con nombre de la temporada de huracanes del Atlntico 2013 , se form alrededor de 8 am EDT el jueves en el sudeste del Golfo de Mxico . No es frecuente que se ve una nueva tormenta empiezan con vientos sostenidos de 60 mph , pero eso es lo que un avin cazador de huracanes Fuerza Area encontr esta maana cerca de las 7:30 am EDT , cuando se tomaron muestras de la parte norte de la tormenta. Un barco se encuentra a unos 50 kilmetros al noreste de la punta noreste de la Pennsula de Yucatn midi vientos sostenidos de 51 mph cerca al mismo tiempo. Bucles de satlite muestran que Karen es una tormenta de tamao medio con una zona de tormentas muy intensas a lo largo de sus flancos norte y este . La cizalladura del viento ha aumentado desde el mircoles, y ahora es una moderadamente alta 20 nudos , gracias a los fuertes vientos de nivel superior desde el oeste -suroeste . Estos vientos fuertes se mantienen las fuertes tormentas se desarrolle en el lado oeste del centro de la circulacin de Karen, por la conduccin de aire seco que es la Pennsula de Yucatn y el oeste del Golfo de Mxico en el ncleo de Karen. Como resultado , Karen tiene una coma en forma desigual en las imgenes satelitales . Karen tiene un canal de salida de nivel superior fuerte para el norte que est ayudando a ventilar la tormenta, sin embargo, y las temperaturas ocenicas son un muy clido 29 C ( 84 bis F). Entre las 7 am y las 09:30 am EDT los Hurricane Hunters hicieron tres pases , aunque el centro de Karen , y la presin central permanecieron ms o menos constantes en 1004 mb , por lo que Karen no est pasando por muchos cambios.

Figura 1 . Las probabilidades de recibir ms de 4 ” de la lluvia en un perodo de cinco das a partir de las 02 a.m. EDT jueves 3 de octubre de 2013, segn lo predicho por el modelo GFDL conjunto experimental .

Prediccin para Karen
La cizalladura del viento aumentar constantemente mientras la tormenta se dirige al norte -noroeste , y de corte alcanzar un mximo de 25 nudos por la maana del sbado como Karen se acerca a la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. , segn el ltimo pronstico del modelo BUQUES . El ambiente crecer ms seco que Karen se mueve en el norte del Golfo de Mxico , y el aire ms seco combinado con el aumento de la cizalladura del viento retardar el desarrollo , por lo que slo la intensificacin lento probablemente a viernes. Un canal de baja presin y un frente fro asociado se mueve a travs de Louisiana el sbado, y los vientos del oeste en los niveles altos asociados ser capaz de convertir Karen ms al noreste , ya que se acerca a la costa en la noche del viernes y la maana del sbado . Cuanto ms alto cizallamiento en ese momento debe ser capaz de inducir debilitamiento y el 08 a.m. EDT Jueves probabilidad previsin de viento de NHC dio un 28 % de posibilidades de Karen ser un huracn a las 2 am EDT Sbado , frente al 44 % el viernes por la tarde . La mayora de los modelos predicen que toc tierra ocurrir a lo largo de la Florida Panhandle sbado por la tarde o por la noche occidental. El modelo europeo generalmente fiable Karen ha de tocar tierra sobre Luisiana del Este, sin embargo. Si Karen no seguir este camino ms hacia el oeste , la tormenta ser ms dbil, ya que no hay aire ms seco y ms alta cizalladura del viento del oeste. Dado que casi todos los grandes tormentas de Karen se desplazar al este con alta cizalladura del viento, habr precipitaciones relativamente bajas totales de 1-3 “, inmediatamente al oeste de donde el centro toque tierra . Mucho mayores totales de lluvia de 4-8 ” se puede esperar que este. Para juzgar las posibilidades de recibir los vientos de tormenta tropical en su ubicacin, le recomiendo usar el pronstico del NHC probabilidad viento. Las probabilidades ms altas de vientos de tormenta tropical ( 45 – 55 % ) estn a lo largo de la costa de Buras , Louisiana , a Pensacola , Florida.

Voy a tener un nuevo puesto esta tarde.

Jeff Masters
Obtenga ms informacin en

Huracn relojes estn volando a lo largo de la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. como la tormenta tropical Karen dirige hacia el norte -noroeste hacia el Golfo de Mxico . Karen , la undcima tormenta con nombre de la temporada de huracanes del Atlntico 2013 , se form alrededor de 8 am EDT el jueves en el sudeste del Golfo de Mxico . No es frecuente que se ve una nueva tormenta empiezan con vientos sostenidos de 60 mph , pero eso es lo que un avin cazador de huracanes Fuerza Area encontr esta maana cerca de las 7:30 am EDT , cuando se tomaron muestras de la parte norte de la tormenta. Un barco se encuentra a unos 50 kilmetros al noreste de la punta noreste de la Pennsula de Yucatn midi vientos sostenidos de 51 mph cerca al mismo tiempo. Bucles de satlite muestran que Karen es una tormenta de tamao medio con una zona de tormentas muy intensas a lo largo de sus flancos norte y este . La cizalladura del viento ha aumentado desde el mircoles, y ahora es una moderadamente alta 20 nudos , gracias a los fuertes vientos de nivel superior desde el oeste -suroeste . Estos vientos fuertes se mantienen las fuertes tormentas se desarrolle en el lado oeste del centro de la circulacin de Karen, por la conduccin de aire seco que es la Pennsula de Yucatn y el oeste del Golfo de Mxico en el ncleo de Karen. Como resultado , Karen tiene una coma en forma desigual en las imgenes satelitales . Karen tiene un canal de salida de nivel superior fuerte para el norte que est ayudando a ventilar la tormenta, sin embargo, y las temperaturas ocenicas son un muy clido 29 C ( 84 bis F). Entre las 7 am y las 09:30 am EDT los Hurricane Hunters hicieron tres pases , aunque el centro de Karen , y la presin central permanecieron ms o menos constantes en 1004 mb , por lo que Karen no est pasando por muchos cambios.

Figura 1 . Las probabilidades de recibir ms de 4 ” de la lluvia en un perodo de cinco das a partir de las 02 a.m. EDT jueves 3 de octubre de 2013, segn lo predicho por el modelo GFDL conjunto experimental .

Prediccin para Karen
La cizalladura del viento aumentar constantemente mientras la tormenta se dirige al norte -noroeste , y de corte alcanzar un mximo de 25 nudos por la maana del sbado como Karen se acerca a la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. , segn el ltimo pronstico del modelo BUQUES . El ambiente crecer ms seco que Karen se mueve en el norte del Golfo de Mxico , y el aire ms seco combinado con el aumento de la cizalladura del viento retardar el desarrollo , por lo que slo la intensificacin lento probablemente a viernes. Un canal de baja presin y un frente fro asociado se mueve a travs de Louisiana el sbado, y los vientos del oeste en los niveles altos asociados ser capaz de convertir Karen ms al noreste , ya que se acerca a la costa en la noche del viernes y la maana del sbado . Cuanto ms alto cizallamiento en ese momento debe ser capaz de inducir debilitamiento y el 08 a.m. EDT Jueves probabilidad previsin de viento de NHC dio un 28 % de posibilidades de Karen ser un huracn a las 2 am EDT Sbado , frente al 44 % el viernes por la tarde . La mayora de los modelos predicen que toc tierra ocurrir a lo largo de la Florida Panhandle sbado por la tarde o por la noche occidental. El modelo europeo generalmente fiable Karen ha de tocar tierra sobre Luisiana del Este, sin embargo. Si Karen no seguir este camino ms hacia el oeste , la tormenta ser ms dbil, ya que no hay aire ms seco y ms alta cizalladura del viento del oeste. Dado que casi todos los grandes tormentas de Karen se desplazar al este con alta cizalladura del viento, habr precipitaciones relativamente bajas totales de 1-3 “, inmediatamente al oeste de donde el centro toque tierra . Mucho mayores totales de lluvia de 4-8 ” se puede esperar que este. Para juzgar las posibilidades de recibir los vientos de tormenta tropical en su ubicacin, le recomiendo usar el pronstico del NHC probabilidad viento. Las probabilidades ms altas de vientos de tormenta tropical ( 45 – 55 % ) estn a lo largo de la costa de Buras , Louisiana , a Pensacola , Florida.

Voy a tener un nuevo puesto esta tarde.

Jeff Masters
Obtenga ms informacin en

MARTIMO

Atlntico Tropical Tiempo Discusin

AXNT20 TJSJ 041804
TWDAT

DISCUSIN CLIMA TROPICAL
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT VIERNES 04 de octubre 2013

DISCUSIN CLIMA TROPICAL DE NORTE AMERICA CENTRAL …
AMERICA … GOLFO DE MEXICO … EL ​​MAR CARIBE … SECCIONES DEL NORTE DE
SOUTH AMERICA … Y OCANO ATLNTICO EN LA COSTA AFRICANA DE LA
ECUADOR PARA 32N . LA SIGUIENTE INFORMACIN EST BASADA EN SATELITE
OBSERVACIONES IMGENES … Tiempo … RADAR … y meteorolgicos
ANLISIS .

BASADO EN LA SUPERFICIE 1200 UTC ANLISIS E IMGENES POR SATLITE
1715 UTC.

… CARACTERSTICAS ESPECIALES …

EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL KAREN AT 04 /1800 UTC EST CERCA 25.8N
90.2W . Esta posicin tambin es de unos 208 NM AL SUR -SUROESTE
DE LA BOCA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI … Y COMO A 240 NM AL
Sur-sureste de Morgan City Louisiana. KAREN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA
EL NORTE – NOROESTE 8 NUDOS. LA CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA
PRESIN ES 1003 MB . LOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SON VELOCIDADES DE VIENTO
45 NUDOS CON RAFAGAS HASTA 55 NUDOS. POR FAVOR LEA EL PBLICO
ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE KAREN que se emiten bajo la cabecera de la OMM
WTNT32 KNHC Y BAJO EL ENCABEZADO DE AWIPS MIATCPAT2 … Y EL
PRONSTICO / ADVERTENCIAS que se emiten bajo la cabecera de la OMM
WTNT22 KNHC Y BAJO EL ENCABEZADO DE AWIPS MIATCMAT2 . UN HURACN
VIGILANCIA Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE HAN EMITIDO POR PARTES
DEL U.S.A. Costa del Golfo . Precipitacin convectiva …
DISPERSADAS a numerosos FUERTE DE 23N A 27N ENTRE 85W Y 90W .
QUEBRADA DE NUBES MULTICAPA Cubierto y otras posibles
PRECIPITACIN SON OTRA PARTE AL ESTE DE LA LNEA QUE FUNCIONA
DEL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA COSTERA DE LA ESQUINA NORESTE
DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN . LAS LLUVIAS DE 24 HORAS total en pulgadas
CORRESPONDIENTE AL EJERCICIO CERRADO EL 04 /1200 UTC … SEGN EL PAN
TEMPERATURA DE LATINA Y TABLAS DE PRECIPITACIN … MIATPTPAN …
Es de 0,49 EN MERIDA MEXICO .

… ONDAS TROPICALES …

UN OCANO ATLNTICO ONDA TROPICAL ESTA JUNTO 20N44W 15N47W 10N49W …
CASI ESTACIONARIO DURANTE LOS ULTIMOS 6 HORAS. CONVECTIVO
PRECIPITACIN … AISLADO DE MODERADO muy dispersa … A
LOCALMENTE FUERTE … DESDE 9N A 16N ENTRE 40W Y 50W .

UN OCEANO ATLANTICO TROPICAL CURVAS onda a lo largo 18N52W 16N56W … A
A 1.012 MB ​​CENTRO DE BAJA PRESIN QUE EST CERCA 14N57W . LA ONDA ERA
Reposicionado PARA COINCIDIR CON IMAGENES DE SATELITE DE LARGO PLAZO .
Precipitacin convectiva … muy dispersos MODERADO A AISLADO
FUERTE DE 8N A 15N ENTRE 52W Y 60W .

A TRAVS DE LA SUPERFICIE ES LO LARGO 26N49W 24N50W … A UN 1012 MB ​​BAJA
CENTRO DE PRESIN QUE EST CERCA 21N51W . ESTE CANAL ES LA ENERGA QUE
Est relacionada con la 18N52W 14N57W ONDA TROPICAL … eso fue
Estir largo de un eje norte- Sur por lo menos 24 horas antes.
Precipitacin convectiva … MODERADO AISLADO DE 21N A 25N
ENTRE 45W Y 52W .

… LA ITCZ / LA vaguada monznica …

EL CANAL DEL MONZN PASA POR LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE GUINEA
CERCA 10N14W 8N20W 8N25W . La ZCIT contina desde 8N25W A 5N35W
Y 5N40W . Precipitacin convectiva … DISPERSOS FUERTE DE 6N
A 7N ENTRE 12W Y 13W … DESDE 6N DE 7N ENTRE 16W Y 17W …
DE 7N A 8N ENTRE 20W Y 22W … Y DESDE 7N A 9N ENTRE
42W Y 44W . AISLADO EN OTRA PARTE DE MODERADA A 10N 2N AL
AL ESTE DE 50W .

DISCUSIN … …

EL GOLFO DE MEXICO …

AIR COMPARATIVO SECADORA EN DEPRESION SEGN LO VISTO EN VAPOR DE AGUA
IMGENES cubre prcticamente TODO EL GOLFO DE MEXICO AREA QUE ES
AL OESTE DEL FLUJO DE VIENTO QUE SE MUEVE EN TODO TROPICAL
STORM KAREN . La excepcin es la HUMEDAD DE ALTO NIVEL QUE EL DE
EL SUR DEL 21N AL ESTE DE 96W en el extremo sudoeste
DE LA ZONA.

NIVEL SUPERIOR anticiclnica FLUJO DE VIENTO CUBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO …
EL OCANO ATLNTICO … Y EL MAR CARIBE AL NORTE DEL 10N
Al oeste de 70W .

PARA LOS SITIOS DE PLATAFORMA OFFSHORE OIL QUE ESTN AL NORTE DEL 27N
Al oeste de 88W …

TECHOS nubes bajas se observan en LA OACI ESTACIONES KGBK …
KVBS … KDLP … Y EN KEIR . NUBE DE BAJA Y TECHOS Nubes Medias
CUBRIR LA OACI ESTACIN KSPR . OACI ESTACIN KATP informa que un
VISIBILIDAD DE 3 KILMETROS y Haze . SKIES FERIA / cielos despejados en o por
INFERIOR A 12.000 PIES estn siendo reportados en otros lugares del
AREA .

NUBES BAJAS ROTOS CUBREN LA BAJA RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS …
EN VICTORIA Y Port Lavaca … EN GALVESTON Y EN BEAUMONT / PUERTO
ARTHUR … esparcieron por nubes fragmentadas CUBIERTA DE HOUSTON
REA METROPOLITANA . NUBES MULTICAPA rota y cubierta para la lluvia
SUR DE LOUISIANA … y en la costa de Alabama . NIVEL Y MEDIO
Techos altos CLOUD NIVEL CUBIERTA FLORIDA AL OESTE DE MARA
ESTHER … NUBE DE BAJA Y TECHOS Nubes Medias de Tallahassee y
PERRY FLORIDA … NUBES ALTAS rotos son AT THE TAMPA METROPOLITANA
AEROPUERTO Y AL KEY WEST ESTACIN NAVAL AIR.

POR FAVOR LEA LA ALTA MAR PRONSTICO … MIAHSFAT2 … Y EL
PRONSTICO OFFSHORE … MIAOFFNT4 … Para ms detalles sobre TROPICAL
STORM KAREN .

Desde el Ocano Atlntico … A TRAVS LA ESPANOLA … EN EL CARIBE
SEA …

A WESTERN ATLNTICO MEDIO NIVEL DE CICLONICA NIVEL SUPERIOR
CENTRO DE CIRCULACION SE ACERCA 27N67W . FLUJO DE VIENTO CICLONICA CUBRE LA
OCANO ATLNTICO DE LAS ANTILLAS MAYORES A 30N ENTRE 60W Y
70W . UNA VAGUADA extiende desde el centro CICLONICA 27N67W A
23N68W … A TRAVS DE LA PARTE OCCIDENTAL DE LA REPBLICA DOMINICANA PARA …
15N73W en el Mar Caribe . Precipitacin convectiva …
DISPERSADAS a numerosos FUERTE EN EL OCANO ATLNTICO DE 20N A
22N ENTRE 64W Y 68W . Dispersas a moderada DISPERSOS
EN OTRA PARTE EN EL OCANO ATLNTICO DE LA COSTA NORTE DE
ESPANOLA DE 30N ENTRE 60W Y 70W … Y EN EL MAR CARIBE
EN LAS AGUAS COSTERAS DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA .

LA PREVISIN DE GFS 700 MB MUESTRA QUE LA ESPANOLA SER
RODEADO DE FLUJO DE VIENTO CICLONICA CON UNA VAGUADA INVERTIDA AMPLIA
Durante las primeras 24 a 30 horas del perodo del pronstico . SOUTHERLY
FLUJO DE VIENTO cubrir el rea PARA EL RESTO DEL PERIODO DE TIEMPO
LA VAGUADA INVERTIDA MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE Y NOROESTE . EL GFS
MODELO DE 500 MB y 250 MB PARA MUESTRA MUESTRA QUE A TRAVS DE LA VOLUNTAD
CORTE A TRAVES DEL AREA Y CUBRIR LA ESPANOLA PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
O SO .

EL RESTO DEL MAR CARIBE …

NIVEL SUPERIOR anticiclnica FLUJO DE VIENTO CUBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO …
EL OCANO ATLNTICO … Y EL MAR CARIBE AL NORTE DEL 10N
Al oeste de 70W .

UN OCANO ATLNTICO SUPERFICIE DEL CANAL ES LO LARGO 59W/60W DE 16N A
22N MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE 10 NUDOS O MENOS . Rainshowers SON POSIBLES
DE 17N A 21N ENTRE 58W Y 62W . Esta funcin es SOLO
FUERA DE LA ESQUINA NORESTE DEL AREA .

EL CANAL DEL MONZN es a lo largo 11N73W EN COLOMBIA … A 11N80W EN
LA ESQUINA SUROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE … ALL EN 10N86W
COSTA RICA … EN EL OCANO PACFICO ORIENTAL . CONVECTIVO
PRECIPITACIN … NUMEROSOS FUERTE DE 6N A 12N ENTRE 70W Y
81W AT 04 / 0915 UTC se ha debilitado COMPARATIVO . DISPERSADAS FUERTE
Precipitacin convectiva RESTOS DE 7N A 13N ENTRE 67W Y
85W .

EL RESTO DEL ATLNTICO …

NIVEL SUPERIOR anticiclnica FLUJO DE VIENTO CUBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO …
EL OCANO ATLNTICO … Y EL MAR CARIBE AL NORTE DEL 10N
Al oeste de 70W .

AIR COMPARATIVO SECADORA EN DEPRESION SEGN LO VISTO EN VAPOR DE AGUA
IMGENES CUBRE EL OCANO ATLNTICO QUE ES AL OESTE DE LA
27N67W CICLONICA CENTER . La excepcin es ALTO NIVEL DE HUMEDAD
Es el noroeste de la lnea que va desde 32N67W A
26N73W 23N78W A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE CUBA .

A NIVEL MEDIO A TRAVS DE NIVEL SUPERIOR PASA POR 32N45W A
28N49W Y 25N49W . AIR COMPARATIVO SECADORA EN HUNDIMIENTO DE VISTA
EN IMGENES DE VAPOR DE AGUA CUBRE EL OCANO ATLNTICO EN 250 NM
A 400 NM AL NOROESTE DE LA CANAL .

A NIVEL MEDIO DEBILITAMIENTO A TRAVS DE NIVEL SUPERIOR PASA POR
32N36W A 25N40W . Precipitacin convectiva … NUMEROSOS FUERTE
DE 21N A 23N ENTRE 36W Y 40W . BROKEN a nublado
NUBES MULTICAPA y precipitaciones persistentes POSIBLE
OTRO DE 19N A 28N ENTRE 32W Y 42W .

A RIDGE SUPERFICIE pasa por un 1021 MB CENTRO DE ALTA PRESIN
Que est cerca 31N24W A 25N31W … A 29N47W … A 32N55W … Y
NOROESTE MAS ALLA A 1022 MB CENTRO DE ALTA PRESIN QUE EST CERCA
33N66W .

POR FAVOR LEA LA ALTA MAR PRONSTICO … MIAHSFAT2 … PARA MS
DETALLES SOBRE EL PRONSTICO 48 HORAS PARA EL SURESTE DE VIENTOS DEL SUR
DE 20 A 25 NUDOS Y ALTURAS DEL MAR A 8 PIES EN EL NORTE DE 29N A
EL OESTE DE 77W .

PARA OBTENER MS INFORMACIN , VISITE
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV / MARINE

$ $
MT

High Seas Pronstico (Tropical del Atlntico ) FZNT02 TJSJ 041532
HSFAT2

ALTA MAR PRONOSTICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
1630 UTC vie 04 de octubre 2013

SEAS dan como altura significativa de ola … que es el promedio
ALTURA DE LA MS ALTA 1/3 de las olas. ONDAS individuales pueden ser
Ms del doble de altura de ola significativa .

Scurit

ATLNTICO DE 07N A 31N W DE 35W INCLUYENDO MAR CARIBE Y
GOLFO DE MEXICO

SINOPSIS VLIDO 1200 UTC Vie Oct 04.
24 HOUR 1200 UTC Pronstico vlido Sab Oct 05.
Pronstico de 48 horas vlido a las 1200 UTC Dom Oct 06.

. ADVERTENCIAS .

… AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL …

. TORMENTA TROPICAL KAREN EN 25.6N 90.2W 1.003 MB a 1500 UTC 04 de octubre
MUDANZAS N -NW O 330 GRADOS A 9 KT . MXIMA sostenida del viento 45 RAFAGAS
55 KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL VIENTO 120 NM NE QUADRANT …
110 NM SE Y CUADRANTE CUADRANTE NW 60 NM . SEAS 12 pies o ms
Dentro de los 120 Nm de centro, salvo 30 NM SW CUADRANTE CON OLEAJE A 20
FT . Otro punto de 180 NM N y 90 S NM semicrculos vientos
33 KT . SEAS A 12 FT .
0.24 hora Pronstico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE KAREN 27.7N 90.9W .
MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS RAFAGAS DE VIENTO 45 55 KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
VIENTOS EN 100 NM NE QUADRANT … 90 NM cuadrante SE … 30 NM SW
CUADRANTE … Y 50 NM NW QUADRANT . SEAS 12 pies o ms DENTRO
NM 120 E y 60 NM W semicrculos con aguas a 22 FT . EN OTRA PARTE
N DE 25N ENTRE 86W Y 93W VIENTO A 33 KT . SEAS A 12 FT .
0.48 hora Pronstico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE KAREN 29.8N 88.6W .
MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS RAFAGAS DE VIENTO 55 65 KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
VIENTOS EN 100 NM NE QUADRANT … 120 NM SE CUADRANTE … 40 NM SW
Y CUADRANTE CUADRANTE NW 60 NM . SEAS 12 pies o ms DENTRO
E 150 NM y 75 NM W semicrculos con aguas a 24 FT . EN OTRA PARTE
N DE 27N de 85 a 90 VIENTOS DE 33 KT . SEAS A 12 FT .
0.72 hora Pronstico POST- TROPICAL CERCA DE KAREN EXTRATROPICAL 33.5N
83.0W . MXIMO SOSTENIDO DE VIENTO 25 RAFAGAS 35 KT .

VIENTOS DE PREDICCIN EN Y CERCA DE CICLONES TROPICALES activa debe
Usar con precaucin debido a la incertidumbre en TRAYECTORIA … TAMAO
E INTENSIDAD .

. SINOPSIS Y PRONSTICO .

. ATLC 48 hora Pronstico N DE 29N W DE 77W SE a S VIENTOS DE 20 A
25 KT . OLEAJE A 8 FT .

. RESTO DE VIENTOS AREA 20 kt o inferior . SEAS menos de 8 FT .

$ $
. PRONOSTICADOR WALLY BARNES . CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES .

FIN