Caribbean: Tropical Storm Erika 28/1800Z near 17.7N 70.2W, moving W at 15.6 knots (NHC) – Updated 28 Aug 2015 2035z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Erika

…ERIKA SPREADING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

173843W5_NL_sm

000
WTNT35 KNHC 281737
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
200 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

…ERIKA SPREADING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.7N 70.2W
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM SW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 305 MI…490 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Puerto Rico,
Vieques, and Culebra.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Dominican Republic
* Haiti
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas
* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the
progress of Erika.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 70.2 West. Erika has
been moving westward near 18 mph (30 km/h) for the past several
hours. A motion toward the west-northwest is expected to being
later this afternoon or tonight and continue through Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican
Republic and Haiti during the next few hours, move near the Turks
and Caicos Islands tonight, and move near the central and
northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast this afternoon and tonight as
Erika moves over land, followed by little change in strength through
Saturday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
to the east of the center. Punta Cana at the eastern end of the
Dominican Republic has been reporting wind gusts of 40 mph (64 km/h)
for the past few hours.

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data
and surface observations is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently spreading across
portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to spread across Haiti this afternoon, the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later this afternoon and
tonight, and the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday
night.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern and central Bahamas through Saturday.
An additional 1 to 2 inches is expected for Puerto Rico. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Local Statements  

TSR N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 28 Aug, 2015 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ERIKA (AL05) currently located near 17.9 N 71.2 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Dominican Republic
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Haiti
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    the Bahamas
        probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Santo Domingo (18.7 N, 69.9 W)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201505N 28

Other Reports
Dr. Jeff Masters’ Blog
By Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:23 AM EDT on August 27, 2015
Director of Meteorology, Weather Underground
Map of the Caribbean by the CIA World Factbook

Map of the Caribbean by the CIA World Factbook

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm2

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1444

WTNT25 KNHC 281444 RRB
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 69.4W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 68.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.3N 71.4W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…130NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.8N 74.5W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…130NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.3N 77.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…120NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.5N 79.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…120NE 110SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.0N 81.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 28.5N 82.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 30.5N 82.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 69.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BEVEN=

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA IV

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

3 thoughts on “Caribbean: Tropical Storm Erika 28/1800Z near 17.7N 70.2W, moving W at 15.6 knots (NHC) – Updated 28 Aug 2015 2035z (GMT/UTC)

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