Madagascar/ Mauritius/ Rodrigues/ Indian Ocean: Severe Tropical Storm HEROLD 22S 15/1200Z 15.2S 52.0E, moving ESE 02Kt. Storm force winds 50/55kt. 985 hP (RSMC La Réunion) – Updated 15 Mar 2020 1635Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm HEROLD 22S

Herold is a CAT1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, expected to intensify to a CAT2 storm by 16 Mar, 6:00 UTC (TSR UCL London data)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 20 FEET – JTWC

METEO FRANCE La Réunion

 

swi10_20192020-1

Bulletin du 15 mars à 16H25 locales Réunion:
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE HEROLD.
Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 100 km/h.Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 150 km/h.Pression estimée au centre: 985 hPa.
Position le 15 mars à 16 heures locales Réunion: 15.2 Sud / 52.0 Est.Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 725 km au secteur: NORD-NORD-OUESTDistance de Mayotte: 780 km au secteur: EST-SUD-ESTDéplacement: EST-SUD-EST, à 4 km/h.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.Consulter le Bulletin d’Activité Cyclonique (voir menu de droite)pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système.

Bulletin of March 15 at 4:25 p.m. local Réunion:
HEAVY TROPICAL STORM HEROLD.
Estimated maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 100 km / h. Estimated maximum winds at sea: 150 km / h. Estimated center pressure: 985 hPa.
Position on March 15 at 4 p.m. Reunion: 15.2 South / 52.0 East. Distance from the Reunion coast: 725 km to the sector: NORD-NORD-OUESTDistance from Mayotte: 780 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTHEASTDisplacement: EAST-SOUTHEAST , at 4 km / h.
This bulletin is now finished. Consult the Cyclonic Activity Bulletin (see menu on the right) for forecasts on this system.

WTIO31 FMEE 151310 CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/10/201920201.

A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HEROLD) 2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/03/2020 :DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 52.0 E(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 2 KT3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KTRAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):28 KT NE: 200 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 15034 KT NE: 130 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 7048 KT NE: 80 SE: SO: NO: 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE1.B PREVISIONS:12H: 16/03/2020 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL24H: 16/03/2020 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL36H: 17/03/2020 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE48H: 17/03/2020 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL60H: 18/03/2020 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL72H: 18/03/2020 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:96H: 19/03/2020 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE120H: 20/03/2020 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE2.C COMMENTAIRES:FT=CI=4.0AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, APRES UN EFFONDREMENT DU COEUR DU
SYSTEME, SUITE A UN MANQUE ENERGETIQUE, CELUI CI SEMBLE VOULOIR SE RECONSTRUIRE EN PRESENTANT UN GRAND OEIL IRRIGULIER AU CENTRE D’UN CDO AUX SOMMETS NUAGEUX ENCORE RELATIVEMENT CHAUDS DEPUIS LA DERNIERE HEURE. LE DEPLACEMENT QUI A REPRIS EN DIRECTION DE L’EST SUD-EST ET QUI EST PREVU SE POURSUIVRE, DEVRAIT PERMETTRE AU SYSTEME DERETROUVER DES EAUX PLUS FAVORABLES. CE QUI DEVRAIT PERMETTRE LA CONSOLIDATION DU COEUR ET L’INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME.PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE : UN DEPLACEMENT TRES LENTEN DIRECTION DE L’EST SUD-EST SEMBLE SE CONFIRMER, SUITE A L’AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST, ET SOUS L’INFLUENCE DE L’AUTRE DORSALE AU NORD-EST. HEROLD CONTINUE DE S’ELOIGNER DES COTES MALGACHES AUJOURD’HUI, A PRES DE 150KM. CETTE NUIT, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ACCELERER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST SOUS L’INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPO AU NORD-EST. IL RESTE DES DIFFERENCES LONGITUDINALES (“ALONG-TRACK”) ENTRE LES MODELES, MAIS CELLES-CI SONT MOINS MARQUEES QUE DANS LES RESEAUX PRECEDENTS. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, SOUS L’INFLUENCE D’UNE SECONDE DORSALE A L’EST, LE SYSTEME CONTINUE VERS LE SUD-EST, A L’AVANT D’UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. COTE ATMOSPHERIQUE, LES CONDITIONS SONT FAVORABLES AU RENFORCEMENT DU SYSTEME. DES CE SOIR, AVEC LA REPRISE DU MOUVEMENT, L’ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES PREVOIENT UN CREUSEMENT REGULIER DE CE SYSTEME JUSQU’A LUNDI SOIR. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, L’ARRIVEE D’UN NOUVEAU TALWEG D’ALTITUDE AU SUD-OUEST CAUSE L’APPARITION PUIS LE RENFORCEMENT D’UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS S’AFFAIBLIR A PARTIR DE MARDI, LENTEMENT DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS EN RAISON DU DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME, PUIS PLUS FRANCHEMENT AVANT DE PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES.EN RAISON DE L’ELOIGNEMENT DU SYSTEME, L’IMPACT SUR LE COTE EST MALGACHE SE REDUIT. DES PLUIES TOUCHENT ENCORE CETTE NUIT LA PENINSULEDE MASOALA, AVEC DES RAFALES DE L’ORDRE DE 60/80LM/H SUR LES ZONES COTIERES. CES VENTS POURRONT GENERER DE LA SURCOTE DE L’ORDRE DE 20 CM SUR LES COTES EXPOSEES (NOTAMMENT DANS LE FOND DE LA BAIE D’ANTONGIL).

EN FIN DE WEEK-END ET DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES ET EN PARTICULIER CEUX DES ILES MAURICE ET RODRIGUES SONTINVITES A SURVEILLER L’EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION

WTIO31 FMEE 151310 CMRS / CENTER DES TROPICAL CYCLONES DE LA REUNION

CYCLONIC ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A BULLETIN NUMBER: 10/13/201920201.

A STRONG TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD) 2.A POSITION AT 1200 UTC ON 03/15/2020: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF ITEM 15.2 S / 52.0 E (FIFTEEN DEGREES TWO SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DEGREES ZERO EAST) EAST-SOUTHEAST 2 KT3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0 / 4.0 / D 0.5 / 12 H4.A CENTER PRESSURE: 985 HPA5. MAX WIND (MEDIUM / 10 MN): 55 KTRAYON OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RVM): 37 KM6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 200 SE: 150 SW: 150 NO: 15034 KT NE: 130 SE: 90 SW: 70 NO: 7048 KT NE: 80 SE: SO: NO: 7.A SIDE / DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE CLOSED: 1007 HPA / 700 KM8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION: DEEP1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 16/03/2020 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND = 065 KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE24H: 03/16/2020 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND = 080 KT, TROPICAL36H CYCLONE: 03/17/2020 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND = 090 KT, TROPICAL INTENSE48H CYCLONE : 03/17/2020 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 61.4 E, MAX WIND = 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE60H: 03/18/2020 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.8 E, MAX WIND = 070 KT, C YCLONE TROPICAL72H: 18/03/2020 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 65.9 E, MAX WIND = 055 KT, HEAVY TROPICAL STORM 2.B LATER TREND: 96H: 19/03/2020 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND = 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL LOW 120H: 03/20/2020 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND = 025 KT, POST-TROPICAL LOW2.C COMMENTS: FT = CI = 4.0 DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, AFTER ONE COLLAPSE OF THE HEART OF
SYSTEM, FOLLOWING AN ENERGY LACK, THIS ONE SEEMS TO WANT TO REBUILD BY PRESENTING A BIG IRRIGULAR EYE IN THE CENTER OF A CDO WITH CLOUDY SUMMITS STILL RELATIVELY HOT SINCE THE LAST HOUR. THE MOVEMENT WHICH HAS TAKEN BACK EAST SOUTHEAST AND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO DISCOVER MORE FAVORABLE WATERS. WHAT SHOULD ALLOW THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE HEART AND THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY: A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT DIRECTION EAST SOUTH-EAST SEEMS TO BE CONFIRMED, FOLLOWING THE LOWERING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE -WEST, AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE OTHER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. HEROLD CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MALAGASY COAST TODAY, NEAR 150KM. TONIGHT THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTH EAST UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE MIDDLE TROPO RIDGE NORTHEAST. THERE ARE LONGITUDINAL DIFFERENCES (“ALONG-TRACK”) BETWEEN THE MODELS, BUT THESE ARE LESS MARKED THAN IN PREVIOUS NETWORKS. STARTING FROM WEDNESDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SECOND BACK EAST, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTHEAST, BEFORE A THALWEG OF MIDDLE LATITUDES. ON THE ATMOSPHERIC SIDE, CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THE SYSTEM. TONIGHT, WITH THE RESUMPTION OF THE MOVEMENT, ALL OF THE GUIDANCES AVAILABLE PROVIDE FOR A REGULAR INCREASE IN THIS SYSTEM UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW SOUTHWEST ALTITUDE TALWEG CAUSES THE APPEARANCE THEN THE STRENGTHENING OF A NORTHWEST VERTICAL SHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN WEAKEN FROM TUESDAY, SLOWLY IN THE FIRST TIME DUE TO THE RAPID DISPLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, THEN MORE FRONTLY BEFORE LOSING ITS PURE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. COAST IS MALAGASY IS REDUCED. RAIN AGAIN AGAIN TONIGHT THE MASOALA PENINSULA, WITH GUSTS OF THE ORDER OF 60 / 80LM / H OVER COASTAL AREAS. THESE WINDS MAY GENERATE A SURROUNDING OF THE ORDER OF 20 CM OVER THE EXPOSED DIMENSIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE BOTTOM OF ANTENIL BAY).

AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK, THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND PARTICULARLY THOSE OF THE MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES IS STILL TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SITUATION

See more here: http://www.meteofrance.re/cyclone/

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Herold) Warning #05
Issued at 15/0900Z

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
150600Z — NEAR 15.1S 51.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 090 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 51.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z — 15.3S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z — 16.0S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 17.2S 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 18.7S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z — 21.8S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 24.4S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 52.1E.
15MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (HEROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
336 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THINNING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER
OF THE SYSTEM, BUT CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE POLEWARD
SEMICIRCLE. THE CONVECTION ALONG THE EQUATORWARD SIDE APPEARS TO
HAVE DIMINISHED, POSSIBLY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION
WITH MADAGASCAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON TIGHTLY WRAPPED
BANDING IN MSI ALONG WITH A 150436Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING A DISTINCT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. FURTHERMORE, A 150622Z
METOP-B DIRECT ASCAT IMAGE PLACES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS SET WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 150358Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 71 KTS AND AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T4.2 (70 KTS), WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN, MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS, PGTW/KNES/FMEE). UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. PAIRED WITH
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, TC 22S IS LOCATED
WITHIN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) BUILDING IN TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE NER
CONTINUES TO BUILD, TC 22S WILL TRACK ALONG ITS PERIPHERY AND
ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM
TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 95 KTS BY TAU 36. THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS PERIOD COULD ALLOW FOR A HIGHER PEAK
INTENSITY. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN TC 22S AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT)
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. STT
COMPLETION IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD TO 275 NM BY TAU 96. DUE TO THIS
MODEL SPREAD AND THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.//
NNNN


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 15 Mar, 2020 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone HEROLD is currently located near 15.1 S 51.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 70 kts (81 mph). HEROLD is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. HEROLD is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for TS is 50% currently

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

H15 DocR

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 151226
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/03/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/03/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 52.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 260 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 330 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/16 AT 00 UTC:
15.7 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2020/03/16 AT 12 UTC:
16.7 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Australia (NT, QLD): Tropical Cyclone NINETEEN 07U 19P 23/1500Z (1:00 am AEST) nr 15.9S 139.4E, moving SSE 9.7kt. Wind ~35.09kt, gust ~51.2kt. 994 hPa at 12Z (TCWC Brisbane) – Published 23 Feb 2020 1753Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone NINETEEN 07U 19P

Tropical low approaching Mornington Island. Expected to develop into a (Australian) category 1 tropical cyclone within the next few hours.

Warning zone: Port Roper to Kowanyama, including Borroloola and Mornington Island and adjacent inland areas between Cape Crawford and Century Mine, including Doomadgee.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 12 FEET (JTWC)

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP QLD

Tropical Low

Issued at 1:36 am AEST Monday 24 February 2020. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 17.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
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Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
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Past Track and Movement
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Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
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Very Destructive Winds
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Destructive Winds
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Gale Force Winds
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Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
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Very Destructive Wind Boundary
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Destructive Wind Boundary
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Gale Force Wind Boundary
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Most Likely Future Track
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Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical low approaching Mornington Island. Expected to develop into a category 1 tropical cyclone within the next few hours.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Port Roper to Kowanyama, including Borroloola and Mornington Island and adjacent inland areas between Cape Crawford and Century Mine, including Doomadgee.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: Watch cancelled for inland areas between Limmen National Park and Brunette Downs.

Details of Tropical Low at 1:00 am AEST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 15.9 degrees South, 139.4 degrees East , 90 kilometres north northeast of Mornington Island and 330 kilometres east of Borroloola .
Movement: south southeast at 18 kilometres per hour .

The tropical low is expected to turn to the southwest, and to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next few hours. The system is expected to pass close to Mornington Island before crossing the Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Borroloola and Burketown later on Monday. Although some further intensification of the system is expected during this period, a category 2 impact is now considered unlikely.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are occurring intermittently on Mornington Island, and are expected to extend onto the coast between Borroloola and Burketown during the next few hours. GALES may extend further to coastal and island communities between Port Roper and Kowanyama (including Borroloola, Burketown, and Karumba) , later on Monday depending on the movement and intensity of the system. These GALES may extend further inland over the Northern Territory and far northwest Queensland later on Monday as the system moves inland.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are no longer expected.

A STORM TIDE between Port McArthur and Karumba is expected as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING between Port McArthur and Karumba. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected to develop about the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast over the next couple of days. Large waves may produce at least MINOR FLOODING along low-lying coastal areas. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

HEAVY RAIN with the potential to cause flash flooding is expected in areas around the Gulf of Carpentaria over the next couple of days, then move west following the low over the coming days. Flood Watches are current for Gulf of Carpentaria catchments.

Recommended Action:

In the Northern Territory, NTES advises:
– People from Port Roper to the NT/Qld Border and surrounding areas should activate their household plan now.
– Start preparations for a cyclone, know where you will shelter.
– Listen for the next advice.
– For cyclone safety and preparation advice http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

In Queensland:
People between the NT/Qld border and Burketown, including Mornington and Sweers Islands, should remain inside until the gales have passed and listen to the next advice at 5am AEST
People elsewhere between the NT/Qld border and Kowanyama, including Karumba, and inland areas between Normanton and the NT/Qld border, including Doomadgee, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.
– Information is available from your local government
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Details:

Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 1 am February 24 tropical low 15.9S 139.4E 55
+6hr 7 am February 24 1 16.5S 139.2E 60
+12hr 1 pm February 24 1 16.9S 138.7E 80
+18hr 7 pm February 24 1 17.1S 137.9E 105
+24hr 1 am February 25 1 17.3S 137.1E 130
+36hr 1 pm February 25 tropical low 17.4S 135.4E 165
+48hr 1 am February 26 tropical low 17.3S 133.9E 200
+60hr 1 pm February 26 tropical low 17.0S 132.3E 235
+72hr 1 am February 27 tropical low 16.5S 130.7E 270

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 5:00 am AEST Monday

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP NT

Tropical Low

Issued at 1:07 am ACST Monday 24 February 2020. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 17.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical low approaching Mornington Island. Expected to develop into a category 1 tropical cyclone within the next few hours.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Port Roper to Kowanyama, including Borroloola and Mornington Island and adjacent inland areas between Cape Crawford and Century Mine, including Doomadgee.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: Watch cancelled for inland areas between Limmen National Park and Brunette Downs.

Details of Tropical Low at 12:30 am ACST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 15.9 degrees South, 139.4 degrees East , 90 kilometres north northeast of Mornington Island and 330 kilometres east of Borroloola .
Movement: south southeast at 18 kilometres per hour .

The tropical low is expected to turn to the southwest, and to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next few hours. The system is expected to pass close to Mornington Island before crossing the Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Borroloola and Burketown later on Monday. Although some further intensification of the system is expected during this period, a category 2 impact is now considered unlikely.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are occurring intermittently on Mornington Island, and are expected to extend onto the coast between Borroloola and Burketown during the next few hours. GALES may extend further to coastal and island communities between Port Roper and Kowanyama (including Borroloola, Burketown, and Karumba) , later on Monday depending on the movement and intensity of the system. These GALES may extend further inland over the Northern Territory and far northwest Queensland later on Monday as the system moves inland.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are no longer expected.

A STORM TIDE between Port McArthur and Karumba is expected as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING between Port McArthur and Karumba. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected to develop about the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast over the next couple of days. Large waves may produce at least MINOR FLOODING along low-lying coastal areas. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

HEAVY RAIN with the potential to cause flash flooding is expected in areas around the Gulf of Carpentaria over the next couple of days, then move west following the low over the coming days. Flood Watches are current for Gulf of Carpentaria catchments.

Recommended Action:

In the Northern Territory, NTES advises:
– People from Port Roper to the NT/Qld Border and surrounding areas should activate their household plan now.
– Start preparations for a cyclone, know where you will shelter.
– Listen for the next advice.
– For cyclone safety and preparation advice http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

In Queensland:
People between the NT/Qld border and Burketown, including Mornington and Sweers Islands, should remain inside until the gales have passed and listen to the next advice at 5am AEST
People elsewhere between the NT/Qld border and Kowanyama, including Karumba, and inland areas between Normanton and the NT/Qld border, including Doomadgee, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.
– Information is available from your local government
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Details:

Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 1 am February 24 tropical low 15.9S 139.4E 55
+6hr 7 am February 24 1 16.5S 139.2E 60
+12hr 1 pm February 24 1 16.9S 138.7E 80
+18hr 7 pm February 24 1 17.1S 137.9E 105
+24hr 1 am February 25 1 17.3S 137.1E 130
+36hr 1 pm February 25 tropical low 17.4S 135.4E 165
+48hr 1 am February 26 tropical low 17.3S 133.9E 200
+60hr 1 pm February 26 tropical low 17.0S 132.3E 235
+72hr 1 am February 27 tropical low 16.5S 130.7E 270

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 4:30 am ACST Monday

 

IDQ20023

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17

Issued at 1:39 am EST on Monday 24 February 2020

Headline:

Tropical low approaching Mornington Island. Expected to develop into a category 1 tropical cyclone within the next few hours.

Areas Affected:

Warning Zone

Port Roper to Kowanyama, including Borroloola and Mornington Island and adjacent inland areas between Cape Crawford and Century Mine, including Doomadgee.

Watch Zone

None.

Cancelled Zone

Watch cancelled for inland areas between Limmen National Park and Brunette Downs.

Details of Tropical Low at 1:00 am AEST [12:30 am ACST]:

Intensity: Tropical Low (993 hPa), sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 15.9 degrees South 139.4 degrees East, estimated to be 90 kilometres north northeast of Mornington Island and 330 kilometres east of Borroloola.

Movement: south southeast at 18 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is expected to turn to the southwest, and to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next few hours. The system is expected to pass close to Mornington Island before crossing the Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Borroloola and Burketown later on Monday. Although some further intensification of the system is expected during this period, a category 2 impact is now considered unlikely.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are occurring intermittently on Mornington Island, and are expected to extend onto the coast between Borroloola and Burketown during the next few hours. GALES may extend further to coastal and island communities between Port Roper and Kowanyama (including Borroloola, Burketown, and Karumba) , later on Monday depending on the movement and intensity of the system. These GALES may extend further inland over the Northern Territory and far northwest Queensland later on Monday as the system moves inland.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are no longer expected.

A STORM TIDE between Port McArthur and Karumba is expected as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING between Port McArthur and Karumba. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected to develop about the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast over the next couple of days. Large waves may produce at least MINOR FLOODING along low-lying coastal areas. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

HEAVY RAIN with the potential to cause flash flooding is expected in areas around the Gulf of Carpentaria over the next couple of days, then move west following the low over the coming days. Flood Watches are current for Gulf of Carpentaria catchments.

Recommended Action:

In the Northern Territory, NTES advises:

– People from Port Roper to the NT/Qld Border and surrounding areas should activate their household plan now.

– Start preparations for a cyclone, know where you will shelter.

– Listen for the next advice.

– For cyclone safety and preparation advice http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

In Queensland:

People between the NT/Qld border and Burketown, including Mornington and Sweers Islands, should remain inside until the gales have passed and listen to the next advice at 5am AEST

People elsewhere between the NT/Qld border and Kowanyama, including Karumba, and inland areas between Normanton and the NT/Qld border, including Doomadgee, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

– Information is available from your local government

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am AEST Monday 24 February [4:30 am ACST Monday 24 February].

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau’s website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 23 Feb, 2020 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NINETEEN is currently located near 15.5 S 139.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). NINETEEN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Burketown (17.7 S, 139.4 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Borroloola (16.1 S, 136.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Kowanyama (15.8 S, 141.8 E)
        probability for TS is 35% currently
    Alexandria (19.0 S, 136.7 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDQ20008
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 1305UTC 23 FEBRUARY 2020

STORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal three south (15.3S)
longitude one hundred and thirty nine decimal one east (139.1E)
Recent movement : south southeast at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 994 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 12 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 0200 UTC 24
February.

Winds above 48 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and moderate swell after 0200 UTC 24 February.

Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of the centre after 1800 UTC 23
February with very rough seas and moderate swell.
Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 24 February: Within 45 nautical miles of 16.4 south 138.7 east
Central pressure 987 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 24 February: Within 70 nautical miles of 16.9 south 137.2 east over
land
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 23 February 2020.

WEATHER BRISBANE

===========================================================================================================
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia: Tropical Cyclone DAMIEN 14S 080000 AWST/081600Z Australian CAT2 nr 21.6S 117.1E, moving SW 15km/h ~8.09kt. Wind 110kph~59.39kt, gust 155kph~83.69kt (BoM) – Updated 08 Feb 2020 1838Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Damien

Tropical Cyclone Damien has weakened to a Category 2 system (Australian scale)

Warning zone: Mardie to Whim Creek, including Karratha, Dampier and Pannawonica, but not including Port Hedland, and extending inland to parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne, including Tom Price, Paraburdoo and Mount Augustus but not including Newman..

 

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Damien

Issued at 12:01 am AWST Sunday 9 February 2020. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 39.

idw60280-1

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Damien has weakened to a Category 2 system.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Mardie to Whim Creek, including Karratha, Dampier and Pannawonica, but not including Port Hedland, and extending inland to parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne, including Tom Price, Paraburdoo and Mount Augustus but not including Newman..

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Damien at 12:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 21.6 degrees South, 117.1 degrees East , 100 kilometres south southeast of Karratha and 85 kilometres east of Pannawonica .
Movement: south southeast at 15 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Damien will continue to weaken as it moves further inland.

Hazards:

DESTRUCTIVE winds have eased in the Karratha region but are continuing near the cyclone centre.

GALES are occurring along parts of the central Pilbara coast between Whim Creek and Mardie, including Karratha and Dampier. Gales will extend inland towards parts of the central Pilbara, including Tom Price, overnight.

GALES with DAMAGING wind gusts will ease in the Karratha region over the next few hours. Conditions in Pannawonica are also likely to begin to ease within the next few hours.

GALES will extend further inland through the central Pilbara and into the northeast Gascoyne overnight and on Sunday as the cyclone tracks further inland.

Heavy rain is likely to cause flooding in the Pilbara and Gascoyne as the cyclone moves inland over the weekend. Flood Watches and Warnings are current, please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details.

Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT effective as of 11:30pm 8 Feb 2020: People in or near Whim Creek to Mardie (not including Mardie) and south to Pannawonica (including Pannawonica, Whim Creek, Point Samson, Cossack, Wickham, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier) need to go to shelter immediately.

YELLOW ALERT effective as of 11:30pm 8 Feb 2020: People in or near Whim Creek (not including Whim Creek), east to Yule River (not including Yule River), south to Wittenoom and west to Fortescue (but not including Fortescue), need to prepare for cyclonic weather and move to shelter.

BLUE ALERT effective as of 11:30pm 8 Feb 2020: People in or near Fortescue, Paraburdoo, Tom Price, Nullagine and Marble Bar (not including Nullagine and Marble Bar) need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: Wallal Downs to Yule River including Nullagine, Marble Bar, Port Hedland, Barrow Island, Onslow and to Fortescue (not including Fortescue).

People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life-threatening situation call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.emergency.wa.gov.au

DFES advises that:
Communities in the Cyclone Warning zone should continue to monitor advice issued as changes to alerts and warnings may occur.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 am February 9 2 21.6S 117.1E 35
+6hr 6 am February 9 2 22.2S 117.4E 55
+12hr 12 pm February 9 1 22.8S 117.6E 75
+18hr 6 pm February 9 1 23.2S 117.7E 100
+24hr 12 am February 10 tropical low 23.7S 117.8E 130
+36hr 12 pm February 10 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+48hr 12 am February 11 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+60hr 12 pm February 11 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+72hr 12 am February 12 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Sunday

IDW24100

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Pannawonica and Tom Price are requested to use the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 39

Issued at 11:58 pm WST on Saturday 8 February 2020

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Damien has weakened to a Category 2 system.

Areas Affected:

Warning Zone

Mardie to Whim Creek, including Karratha, Dampier and Pannawonica, but not including Port Hedland, and extending inland to parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne, including Tom Price, Paraburdoo and Mount Augustus but not including Newman.

Watch Zone

None

Cancelled Zone

None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Damien at 12:00 am AWST:

Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 21.6 degrees South 117.1 degrees East, estimated to be 100 kilometres south southeast of Karratha and 85 kilometres east of Pannawonica.

Movement: south southeast at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Damien will continue to weaken as it moves further inland.

Hazards:

DESTRUCTIVE winds have eased in the Karratha region but are continuing near the cyclone centre.

GALES are occurring along parts of the central Pilbara coast between Whim Creek and Mardie, including Karratha and Dampier. Gales will extend inland towards parts of the central Pilbara, including Tom Price, overnight.

GALES with DAMAGING wind gusts will ease in the Karratha region over the next few hours. Conditions in Pannawonica are also likely to begin to ease within the next few hours.

GALES will extend further inland through the central Pilbara and into the northeast Gascoyne overnight and on Sunday as the cyclone tracks further inland.

Heavy rain is likely to cause flooding in the Pilbara and Gascoyne as the cyclone moves inland over the weekend. Flood Watches and Warnings are current, please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details.

Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT effective as of 11:30pm 8 Feb 2020: People in or near Whim Creek to Mardie (not including Mardie) and south to Pannawonica (including Pannawonica, Whim Creek, Point Samson, Cossack, Wickham, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier) need to go to shelter immediately.

YELLOW ALERT effective as of 11:30pm 8 Feb 2020: People in or near Whim Creek (not including Whim Creek), east to Yule River (not including Yule River), south to Wittenoom and west to Fortescue (but not including Fortescue), need to prepare for cyclonic weather and move to shelter.

BLUE ALERT effective as of 11:30pm 8 Feb 2020: People in or near Fortescue, Paraburdoo, Tom Price, Nullagine and Marble Bar (not including Nullagine and Marble Bar) need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: Wallal Downs to Yule River including Nullagine, Marble Bar, Port Hedland, Barrow Island, Onslow and to Fortescue (not including Fortescue).

People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life-threatening situation call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.emergency.wa.gov.au

DFES advises that:

Communities in the Cyclone Warning zone should continue to monitor advice issued as changes to alerts and warnings may occur.

Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Sunday 09 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 8 Feb, 2020 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Cyclone DAMIEN is currently located near 21.3 S 116.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). DAMIEN is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DAMIEN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Tom Price (22.8 S, 117.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pannawonica (21.8 S, 116.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E)
        probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

JTWC Tropical Warnings

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Damien) Warning #11 Final Warning
Issued at 08/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 21.3S 116.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 165 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 116.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 22.8S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 23.9S 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 25.0S 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 117.0E.
08FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DAMIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
167 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM PORT HEDLAND REVEAL
AN INCREASINGLY RAGGED EYE STRUCTURE SURROUNDED BY SPIRAL BANDING,
INDICATING A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS PLACED AT 85 KNOTS. FURTHERMORE, THE PRESENCE OF THE
EYE STRUCTURE IN EIR AND RADAR LOOPS LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION. TC DAMIEN HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION, DESPITE CONTINUED ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK INLAND, HOWEVER, IT WILL BECOME EMBEDDED
IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 24
AND FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:2:2:24:21S117E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1224UTC 8 FEBRUARY 2020

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Damien was centred within 10 nautical miles
of
latitude twenty one decimal two south (21.2S)
longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal nine east (116.9E)
Recent movement : south southeast at 9 knots
Maximum winds : 70 knots
Central pressure: 967 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 70 knots near the centre.

Winds above 64 knots overland within 25 nautical miles of centre.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre. Very rough to high
seas and moderate swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and low to
moderate swell.

Winds over the ocean will have eased below gale force by 1800 UTC 08 February.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 09 February: Within 40 nautical miles of 22.5 south 117.4 east
[over land]
Central pressure 984 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 09 February: Within 70 nautical miles of 23.5 south 117.7 east
[over land]
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 08 February 2020.

WEATHER PERTH

===========================================================================================================
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Fiji Group/ South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone TINO 08P 04F 170900Z 15.9S 180.0E, moving SE 08kt. (JTWC) – Updated 17 Jan 2020 1207Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone TINO 04F, 08P

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, VANUA LEVU,
TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP AND
EASTERN HALF OF VITI LEVU.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VANUA BALAVU, CICIA, TUVUCA,
NAYAU AND LAKEBA.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND
NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, LOMAIVITI GROUP, TOTOYA, MOALA, MATUKU,
VANUAVATU, ONEATA, MOCE, KOMO, KABARA, NAMUKA-I-LAU, FULAGA, OGEA,
ONO-I-LAU AND VATOA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI
GROUP.

A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE FIJI GROUP.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 23 FEET – JTWC

JTWC Tropical Warnings

Tropical Cyclone 08P (Tino) Warning #03
Issued at 17/0900Z

sh0820

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (TINO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (TINO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
170600Z — NEAR 15.3S 179.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 125 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
340 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 179.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 17.8S 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 370 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z — 20.4S 175.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 370 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z — 23.2S 173.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 380 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 24 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 27.0S 170.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 370 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 22 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 34.3S 164.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 340 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 180.0E.
17JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (TINO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
178 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE 170429Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, PLACING
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. BASED ON PGTW/KNES DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS), AN ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T3.6 (57 KTS), AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATE OF 56 KTS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THERE REMAIN AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW, SUPPORTED BY A POINT SOURCE
POSITIONED OVER THE SYSTEM AND WELL-DEVELOPED POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS IN A
REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), CONTRIBUTING TO
THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TC 08P IS TRACKING ALONG A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL REMAIN
AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
08P IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 60 KTS IN THE NEAR TERM
AS IT TRANSITS THROUGH THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 36,
COOLING SST (LESS THAN 26 CELSIUS) WILL CAUSE TC 08P TO WEAKEN AS
IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THROUGHOUT ETT, SST WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE, DROPPING BELOW 20 CELSIUS, AND VWS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE TO VALUES GREATER THAN 60 KTS. TC 08P WILL
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72, GAINING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
TRACKS NEAR THE JET STREAM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT, INCREASING TO A 70 NM SPREAD IN MODELS BY TAU 36. AFTER
THIS, MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD; HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH THE JET AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone TINO

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 28 issued 0956 UTC Friday 17 January 2020

65660-1

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone TINO

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 9 am January 17 1 16.1S 180.0E 110
+6hr 3 pm January 17 2 17.4S 178.7W 140
+12hr 9 pm January 17 2 18.7S 177.5W 165
+18hr 3 am January 18 2 20.0S 176.3W 195
+24hr 9 am January 18 2 21.4S 175.0W 220
+36hr 9 pm January 18 1 24.7S 172.1W 280
+48hr 9 am January 19 tropical low 28.8S 169.0W 345
+60hr 9 pm January 19 tropical low 33.3S 166.5W 430
+72hr 9 am January 20 1 36.7S 164.7W 520

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 170822 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 179.3E AT
170600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 IR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS
INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 171200UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING ONTO
SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW. SYSTEM STEERED
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BY THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.
SST IS AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED
BAND OF ABOUT 0.7 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND
PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 18.3S 178.3W MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 20.8S 175.9W MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 23.6S 173.3W MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC 27.4S 169.9W MOV SE AT 19 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TINO WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
171400UTC.
Special Weather Bulletin Number SIXTEEN FOR FIJI AND ROTUMA ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 11:29pm on Friday the 17th of January 2020
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, VANUA LEVU,
TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP AND
EASTERN HALF OF VITI LEVU.
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VANUA BALAVU, CICIA, TUVUCA,
NAYAU AND LAKEBA.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND
NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, LOMAIVITI GROUP, TOTOYA, MOALA, MATUKU,
VANUAVATU, ONEATA, MOCE, KOMO, KABARA, NAMUKA-I-LAU, FULAGA, OGEA,
ONO-I-LAU AND VATOA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI
GROUP.
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE FIJI GROUP.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO CENTRE [982HPA] [CAT2] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1
SOUTH 179.6WEST OR ABOUT 40KM EAST OF UDU POINT AT 10PM TODAY.
CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF
UP TO 95KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 130KM/HR.
TINO IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 28KM/HR.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
ABOUT 180KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKEBA OR 245KM SOUTHEAST OF VANUA
BALAVU AT 10AM TOMORROW MORNING AND ABOUT 425KM EAST OF ONO-I-LAU AT
10PM TOMORROW NIGHT.

FOR VANUA BALAVU, CICIA, TUVUCA, NAYAU AND LAKEBA.
EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 95KM/HR
AND MOMENTATRY GUSTS TO 130KM/HR. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEA FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL
AREAS ESPECIALLY DURING HIGH TIDES.

FOR CIKOBIA, VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS,
LOMAIVITI GROUP, TOTOYA, MOALA, MATUKU, VANUAVATU, ONEATA, MOCE,
KOMO, KABARA, NAMUKA-I-LAU, FULAGA, OGEA, ONO-I-LAU AND VATOA:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 75KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 100KM/HR. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PERSISTENT LOCALISED HEAVY FALLS MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. SEA FLOODING ALONG COAST COULD BE
EXPECTED DURING HIGH TIDES.

FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP:
EXPECT STRONG WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 45KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY
GUSTS TO 65KM/HR. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. PERSISTENT LOCALISED HEAVY FALLS MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
FOR NORTHERN VANUA LEVU WATERS, LAU WATERS, KORO SEA:
EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UPTO 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70
KNOTS WITH HIGH SEAS AND DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS.

THE REST OF FIJI WATERS:
EXPECT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS
FROM LATER TODAY. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST
SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 2AM TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER SEVEN FOR FLOOD ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI AT 11.00pm ON FRIDAY 17TH OF JANUARY 2020

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL LOW LYING AREAS, SMALL STREAMS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS FOR THE WHOLE OF FIJI
AND REMAINS IN FORCE FOR LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF QAWA CATCHMENT

LEVEL AT DREKETILAILAI STATION WAS 3.93M AT 10.00PM WHICH IS 1.43M ABOVE WARNING LEVEL AND INCREASING.
SITUATION

HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE WHOLE OF FIJI.
TIME HEIGHT

HIGH TIDE: 00.10AM 1.90M
LOW TIDE: 06.21AM 0.68M
THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FLOOD WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 02.00AM TOMORROW.

TONGA

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NUMBER 10 FOR TONGA ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO (CATEGORY 2)
ISSUED FROM THE FUA’AMOTU TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE AT 03:00AM SATURDAY 18 JANUARY 2020
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL OF TONGA.
WARNINGS:
A STORM WARNING REMAIN INFORCE FOR ALL OF TONGA LAND AREAS AND COASTAL WATERS.

A HEAVY RAIN WARNING AND FLASH FLOOD ADVISORY REMAIN INFORCE FOR ALL OF TONGA LAND AREAS.

A HEAVY DAMAGING SWELL AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL TONGA COASTAL WATERS.

SITUATION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE “TINO” (CATEGORY 2) WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 SOUTH, LONGITUDE 179.0 WEST OR ABOUT, 370KM WEST SOUTHWEST OF NIUAFO’OU, 560KM WEST OF NIUATOPUTAPU, 595KM WEST NORTHWEST OF NEIAFU, VAVA’U, 630KM NORTHWEST OF PANGAI, HA’APAI, 670KM NORTHWEST OF NUKU’ALOFA AND 710KM NORTHWEST OF ‘EUA AT 01:00AM THIS MORNING. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO (CATEGORY 2) IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT THE SPEED OF 18 KNOTS (36KM/HR). THE MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR ITS CENTER IS ABOUT 50-55 KNOTS (100-110KM/HR) WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 65-70KNOTS (130-140KM/HR). ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, TROPICAL CYCLONE “TINO” IS EXPECTED TO LIE AT ABOUT 440KM WEST NORTHWEST OF NEIAFU, VAVA’U AT 7:00AM THIS MORNING. A GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE WHOLE OF TONGA TODAY.
FOR THE NIUAS AND VAVA’U:
STRONG TO GALE NORTH TO NORTWEST WINDS 30-45 KNOTS (60-90KM/HR), RAPIDLY INCREASING TO STORM FORCE WINDS 55 KNOTS (110KM/HR) AT TIMES WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 70 KNOTS (140KM/HR) FOR TODAY. OVERCAST WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD IN LOW LYING AREAS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND HEAVY DAMAGING SWELL. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS (6 TO 9 METERS). A HEAVY DAMAGING NORTHWESTERLY SWELL (MORE THAN 5 METERS). MARINERS OF SMALL FISHING BOATS FOR THE NIUAS COASTAL WATERS ARE HEREBY ADVISED NOT TO GO OUT TO SEA. POOR VISIBILITY IN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR HA’APAI, TONGATAPU, ‘EUA, TELE-KI-TONGA AND TELE-KI-TOKELAU:
STRONG TO GALE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 30-45 KNOTS (60-90KM/HR), RAPIDLY INCREASING TO STORM FORCE WINDS 55 KNOTS (110KM/HR) AT TIMES WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 70 KNOTS (140KM/HR) LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERCAST WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD IN LOW LYING AREAS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND HEAVY DAMAGING SWELL. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS (6 TO 9 METERS). A HEAVY DAMAGING NORTHWESTERLY SWELL (MORE THAN 5 METERS). MARINERS OF SMALL FISHING BOATS FOR THESE COASTAL WATERS ARE HEREBY ADVISED NOT TO GO OUT TO SEA. POOR VISIBILITY IN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TIDE PREDICTION
LOW TIDE                       :       07:35PM (THIS MORNING)
HIGH TIDE                         :       01:55PM (THIS AFTERNOON)
THE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RECORDED AT FUA’AMOTU AIRPORT AT 03:00AM WAS 997.2 MILLIBARS AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WAS 98%. THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED ABOUT 6:00AM THIS MORNING.

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

Unable to obtain data at this time
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

STORM WARNING 028 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 170725 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8 SOUTH 179.3
EAST AT 170600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 15.8S 179.3E at 170600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY
171200UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.2S 178.2W AT 171800UTC
AND NEAR 20.7S 175.9W AT 180600UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 026.

 

===========================================================================================================
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia: Severe Tropical Cyclone CLAUDIA 07S Category 3 (Australian scale) 12/2100Z position nr 16.0S 117.9E, moving WSW 21kt (JTWC) – Updated 12 Jan 2020 2206Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone CLAUDIA 07S

Severe Tropical Cyclone Claudia, Category 3 (Australian scale) is expected to strengthen further during Monday and remain well offshore from mainland WA.

CLAUDIA is a CAT1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, expected to become CAT2 on the same scale by 13 Jan, 6:00 (TSR UCL London data)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 26 FEET – JTWC

JTWC Tropical Warnings

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Claudia) Warning #06
Issued at 12/2100Z

sh0720-1

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121800Z — NEAR 15.7S 118.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 250 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 118.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 16.7S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 17.6S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 18.4S 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 19.2S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z — 20.9S 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 22.4S 103.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 22.7S 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 117.9E.
12JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
240 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT BUT ASYMMETRIC DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC.
HOWEVER, MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN
BOTH THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 121831Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE, WHICH
SHOWS A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS
HEDGED ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65
KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE STRUCTURE SEEN IN
THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TC 07S IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, 25 TO 30 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THIS IS OFFSET BY THE FACT THAT
THE SHEAR AND STORM MOTION ARE IN-PHASE. TC 07S CONTINUES TO HAVE
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND AN IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
BETWEEN 29 AND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07S IS TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR WILL BE THE PRIMARY
STEERING FEATURE TROUGH TAU 96. FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY, TO NEAR RAPID, INTENSIFICATION
IN THE SHORT TERM. BEYOND TAU 24, TC 07S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXPERIENCES
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A SPREAD OF 116 NM. BY TAU 120, THE
SPREAD INCREASES TO 250 NM WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE THE OUTLIER TO THE
SOUTHEAST. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Claudia

Issued at 2:53 am AWST Monday 13 January 2020. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

idw60280-1

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Claudia, Category 3 is expected to strengthen further during Monday and remain well offshore from mainland WA.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Claudia at 2:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.7 degrees South, 118.9 degrees East , 435 kilometres northwest of Broome and 515 kilometres north of Port Hedland .
Movement: west southwest at 33 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Claudia continues to move over open waters to the northwest of the Kimberley. Claudia is expected to strengthen further during Monday and continue to track towards the west southwest and remain over open waters, well north of the Pilbara on Monday and Tuesday.

Hazards:

GALES and HEAVY RAINFALL are not expected over mainland Western Australia.

Strong winds are likely for coastal waters off the West Kimberley Coast [refer to Marine Wind Warning IDW20100]. Strong winds are likely to extend to coastal waters off the Pilbara coast on Monday and Tuesday.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 am January 13 3 15.7S 118.9E 35
+6hr 8 am January 13 3 16.2S 117.4E 70
+12hr 2 pm January 13 3 16.6S 116.0E 90
+18hr 8 pm January 13 3 17.0S 114.5E 115
+24hr 2 am January 14 3 17.4S 113.1E 135
+36hr 2 pm January 14 3 18.3S 110.8E 175
+48hr 2 am January 15 2 19.1S 108.9E 210
+60hr 2 pm January 15 1 19.9S 107.2E 245
+72hr 2 am January 16 1 20.8S 105.8E 280

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 am AWST Monday

 

 

Infrared image courtesy of the Japan Meteorological Agency. Blue Marble surface image courtesy of NASA.

IDY28000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Bureau National Operations Centre

Satellite Notes for the 1800UTC Chart
Issued at 6:19 am EDT Monday on 13 January 2020
Severe Tropical Cyclone Claudia, Category 3, is off the Pilbara coast and is
moving in a west-southwesterly direction. While the Monsoon Trough is triggering
thunderstorms near the Kimberley coast and across the NT Top End.

Areas of thunderstorms can be seen over central and northern Queensland and also
across the western parts of WA near surface troughs. While there is patchy high
cloud across much of central Australia.

Low cloud near the NSW and Queensland coast and adjacent ranges is due to a
southeasterly onshore airstream. While there is also some low cloud associated
with a weak cold front moving across the southern coastal fringe of WA.


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

No land warning
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

FQAU21 AMMC 110715
40:2:1:31:11:01:00
IDY10240
SECURITE

High Seas Forecast for Northern METAREA 8/10/11
NORTHERN AREA: COAST AT 125E TO 12S125E TO 12S90E TO 0S90E TO 0S142E TO COAST
AT 142E

Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
For 24 hours commencing 1100 UTC 11 January 2020

Please be aware
Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger
than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum
waves can be twice the forecast height.

Part 1 Warnings
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre Gale Warning.

Part 2 Situation at 0600 UTC
Refer to latest warnings for details of the area affected.

Monsoon Trough from 09S142E to Tropical Low 996hPa 12.8S127.5E to 15S125E.
Forecast 10S142E to Tropical Cyclone 986hPa near 14.3S121.7E at 121200UTC.

Part 3 Forecast
Refer to latest warnings.

Within area bounded by 07S104E 02S110E 03S137E 15S129E, outside warning area:
Westerly quarter winds, tending clockwise within 300nm of Tropical Low/Cyclone.
Wind speeds 15/25 knots, increasing to 25/33 knots within 240nm of Tropical
Low. Moderate to rough seas. Low swell, increasing to moderate south of 8S.

Remainder:
Variable winds below 20 knots with slight to moderate seas. Low swell
increasing to moderate south of 08S west from 120E.

Heavy rain, widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms within 240nm of
Tropical Low/Cyclone. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms within
120nm of Monsoon Trough. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
remainder. Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation.

WEATHER MELBOURNE

The next routine forecast will be issued at 19:15 UTC Saturday.

WOAU01 AMMC 111106
IDY21000
40:2:1:04:55S075E35060:01:00
SECURITE
High Seas Weather Warning for METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC
At 1106UTC 11 January 2020

GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AREA

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger
than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum
waves can be twice the forecast height.

SITUATION AT 1200UTC
Vigorous westerly flow.

AREA AFFECTED
Bounded by 44S096E 48S098E 46S115E 42S110E 44S096E.

FORECAST
Westerly quarter winds 30/40 knots west of 103E at first and then extending
throughout area by 111800UTC. Winds easing below 34 knots west of 100E by
111800UTC, west of 109E by 120000UTC and throughout area by 120300UTC. Rough to
very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell.

 

WOAU03 AMMC 111105
IDY21020
40:2:1:04:70S100E35060:01:00
SECURITE
High Seas Weather Warning for METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC
At 1105UTC 11 January 2020

GALE WARNING FOR SOUTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREA

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger
than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum
waves can be twice the forecast height.

SITUATION AT 1200UTC
Vigorous flow associated with a low 963hPa near 54S110E. Forecast low 955hPa
near 55S113E at 111800UTC, low 948hPa near 45S121E at 120000UTC, 29E 58S129E to
low 944hPa near 56S118E at 120600UTC and low 944hPa near 57S122E at 121200UTC.

AREA AFFECTED
Bounded by 43S112E 47S131E 62S135E 64S131E 64S119E 55S105E 48S108E 47S113E
43S112E.

FORECAST
Clockwise 34/47 knots within 360nm of low in all sectors except southeastern
sector, extending to within 660nm of low from 120600UTC. Very rough to high
seas. Moderate to heavy swell.

===========================================================================================================Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Comoros Islands/ Mayotte/ Madagascar/ Mozambique/ Mozambique Channel: Tropical Cyclone BELNA 02S07/1800Z #02S 10.9S 47.2E, moving S 07kt. 964hPa (RSMC La Réunion) – Published 07 Dec 2019 1940Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone BELNA

BELNA is a CAT2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, expected to become a CAT3 storm on the same scale by 7 Dec, 18:00 UTC., and further intensify to a CAT4 storm by 8 Dec, 18:00 UTC (TSR UCL London data)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 26 FEET – JTWC

METEO FRANCE

La Réunion

swi02_20192020

Bulletin du 07 décembre à 22H12 locales Réunion:

CYCLONE TROPICAL BELNA.Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 155 km/h.Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 220 km/h.Pression estimée au centre: 964 hPa.Position le 07 décembre à 22 heures locales Réunion: 10.9 Sud / 47.2 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 1410 km au secteur: NORD-OUEST Distance de Mayotte: 310 km au secteur: NORD-ESTDéplacement: SUD, à 13 km/h.

Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.Consulter le Bulletin d’Activité Cyclonique (voir menu de droite)pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système

Bulletin of 07 December at 22H12 local Réunion:

CYCLONE TROPICAL BELNA.Wind maximum (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 155 km / h. Estimated maximum sea speeds: 220 km / h. Estimated pressure in the center: 964 hPa.Position 07 December at 22:00 local Réunion: 10.9 South / 47.2 East.

Distance of the Reunion coast: 1410 km to the sector: NORTH-WEST Distance from Mayotte: 310 km to the sector: NORTHEASTMove: SOUTH, 13 km / h.

This bulletin is now complete.See the Cyclonic Activity Bulletin (see right menu) for forecasts on this system

See more here: http://www.meteofrance.re/cyclone/activite-cyclonique-en-cours/dirre/BELNA

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 02S (Belna) Warning #06
Issued at 07/0900Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
070600Z — NEAR 9.6S 47.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 47.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z — 10.7S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 11.9S 46.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 13.2S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 14.7S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 18.3S 44.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 21.6S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 25.2S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 9.9S 47.3E.
07DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
862 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 5-10 NM EYE IN ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN
THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KTS) AND A
070548Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 75 KTS. WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. TC 02S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 115 KTS BY TAU 36.
AFTERWARD, TC 02S WILL BEGIN ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AND EXPERIENCE
LESS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. THAT, COUPLED WITH LAND INTERACTION WITH
MADAGASCAR, SHOULD CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO BEGIN FALLING, SLOWLY AT
FIRST THEN MORE RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 96, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER MADAGASCAR AND EMERGE BACK OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN AS A 30 KT SYSTEM. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED
WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR AN EASTERN OUTLIER (NAVGEM).
NOTABLY, THE FORECAST TRACK FALLS EAST OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH
KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER WATER UNTIL ABOUT TAU 120. IF TC 02S FOLLOWS A
TRACK SIMILAR TO THAT SOLUTION, THE STORM COULD INTENSIFY FURTHER OR
WEAKEN MORE SLOWLY. BASED ON SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 7 Dec, 2019 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone BELNA is currently located near 9.6 S 47.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). BELNA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. BELNA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cosmoledo Is. (9.5 S, 47.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mayotte
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Madagascar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dzaoudzi (12.8 S, 45.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Soalala (16.1 S, 45.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 48 hours
    Besalampy (16.7 S, 44.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
    Mahajanga (15.7 S, 46.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 48 hours
    Maintirano (18.0 S, 44.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

B7 DocR

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 071811
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/12/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 07/12/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA) 964 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.9 S / 47.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/08 AT 06 UTC:
12.2 S / 46.6 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/12/08 AT 18 UTC:
13.5 S / 46.1 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

 

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Philippines: Typhoon KAMMURI (‘Tisoy’ in PH)(=CAT1 SSHWS) 03/1500Z position nr 13.4N 119.6E, moving W 11kt (JTWC) – Updated 03 Dec 2019 1500Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon KAMMURI (1928, 29W)

(‘Tisoy’ in The Philippines)

TYPHOON “TISOY” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER MINDORO STRAIT – PAGASA

KAMMURI is a CAT 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (TSR UCL London data)

 MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS  20 FEET – JTWC

Philippines and Spratly Islands beware!

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Typhoon 29W (Kammuri) Warning #24
Issued at 01/1500Z

wp2919

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
031200Z — NEAR 13.2N 120.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 120.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 13.9N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 14.7N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 14.8N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 13.9N 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 10.1N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 6.4N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 119.6E.
03DEC19. TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
NNNN

logo

 

 

TY 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 3 December 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 3 December>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N13°25′ (13.4°)
E119°35′ (119.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 440 km (240 NM)
SE 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 4 December>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N14°20′ (14.3°)
E117°50′ (117.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 40 km (20 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 4 December>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N15°00′ (15.0°)
E116°00′ (116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 5 December>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N13°55′ (13.9°)
E114°00′ (114.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 6 December>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N8°25′ (8.4°)
E112°55′ (112.9°)
Direction and speed of movement S 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Radius of probability circle 190 km (100 NM)

xxx

The Philippines

Typhoon”Tisoy”

Tropical Cyclone: WARNING

Issued at 08:00 pm, 03 December 2019
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11:00 pm today.)

 

TYPHOON “TISOY” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER MINDORO STRAIT.
  • Heavy Rainfall Outlook
  • Between tonight and tomorrow morning: Frequent to continuous heavy (with isolated intense) rains over Quezon and Rizal. Occasional to frequent heavy rains over Mindoro Provinces, rest of CALABARZON, Marinduque, and Romblon. Intermittent heavy rains over Calamian Islands, Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Cagayan Valley, and Cordillera Administrative Region.
  • Residents in the aforementioned areas, especially those living in areas highly susceptible to flooding and rain-induced landslides, are advised to take appropriate actions, coordinate with local disaster risk reduction and management offices, and continue monitoring for updates, especially the Thunderstorm or Rainfall Advisories and Heavy Rainfall Warnings issued by PAGASA Regional Services Divisions.
  • Other Hazards and Information
  • Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals over Pangasinan, southern Quirino, southern Nueva Vizcaya, rest of Aurora, rest of Nueva Ecija, and Burias Island are now lifted.
  • Sea travel is risky, especially for small seacrafts, over the seaboards of areas under TCWS, the seaboards of Northern Luzon and Visayas, the western seaboard of Palawan, and the northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao due to rough sea conditions
  • Gusty conditions may also be experienced in areas in Northern Luzon, especially in the coastal and mountainous zones, due to the Northeast Monsoon.
track-1
Location of Eye/center

At 7:00 PM today, the center of Typhoon “TISOY” was estimated based on all available data at 145 km North of Coron, Palawan (13.3 °N, 120.0 °E )

Movement

Moving West at 25 kph

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 130 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 160 kph

Forecast Position
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow afternoon): 375 km West of Subic, Zambales(14.8°N, 116.8°E)
  • 48 Hour(Thursday afternoon):655 km West of Subic, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR)(14.7°N, 114.2°E)
  • 72 Hour(Friday afternoon): 775 km West of Coron, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(10.9°N, 113.2°E)
Wind Signal (Areas with TCWS)
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • Northern Occidental Mindoro (Abra de Ilog
    • Looc
    • Lubang
    • Mamburao
    • Paluan) including Lubang Island
  • Visayas
  • Mindanao
Meteorological Condition
  • A tropical cyclone will affect the locality.
  • Winds of greater than 121 kph up to 170 kph may be expected in at least 18 hours.
Impact of the Wind
  • Many coconut trees may be broken or destroyed.
  • Almost all banana plants may be downed and a large number of trees may be uprooted.
  • Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses.
  • Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed and there may be considerable damage to structures of light to medium construction.
  • There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
  • In general, moderate to heavy damage may be experienced, particularly in the agricultural and industrial sectors.
Precautionary Measures
  • The disturbance is dangerous to the communities threatened/affected.
  • The sea and coastal waters will be very dangerous to all seacrafts.
  • Travel is very risky especially by sea and air.
  • People are advised to seek shelter in strong buildings, evacuate low-lying areas and to stay away from the coasts and river banks.
  • Watch out for the passage of the “eye” of the typhoon indicated by a sudden occurrence of fair weather immediately after very bad weather with very strong winds coming gnerally from the north.
  • When the “eye” of the typhoon hit the community do not venture away from the safe shelter because after one to two hours the worst weather will resume with the very strong winds coming from the south.
  • Classes in all levels should be suspended and children should stay in the safety of strong buildings.
  • Disaster preparedness and response agencies/organizations are in action with appropriate response to actual emergency.
What To Do
  • If the house is not strong enough to withstand the battering of strong winds go to designated evacuation center aor seek shelter in stronger houses.
  • Stay in safe houses until after the disturbances has left the area.
  • Evacuate from low-lying area and reiverbanks and stay away from coastal areas for possible flooding and strom surge.
  • All travel and outdoor activities should be cancelled.
  • Watch out for the passage of the “Eye Wall and the “Eye” of the typhoon.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • Oriental Mindoro
    • Batangas
    • rest of Occidental Mindoro
    • Marinduque
    • Cavite
    • Laguna
    • Rizal
    • Bataan
    • Metro Manila
    • southern Bulacan (Balagtas
    • Bocaue
    • Bulacan
    • Calumpit
    • Guiguinto
    • Hagonoy
    • Malolos City
    • Marilao
    • Meycauayan City
    • Obando
    • Paombong
    • Plaridel
    • Pulilan)
    • southern Pampanga (Floridablanca
    • Lubao
    • Macabebe
    • Masantol
    • Sasmuan)
    • southern Zambales (Castillejos
    • Olongapo City
    • San Antonio
    • San Felipe
    • San Marcelino
    • San Narciso
    • Subic)
    • Calamian Islands (Coron
    • Busuanga
    • Culion
    • Linapacan)
    • and western portion of Quezon (Dolores
    • Tiaong
    • Candelaria
    • Sariaya
    • San Antonio
  • Visayas
  • Mindanao
Meteorological Condition
  • A tropical cyclone will affect the the locality.
  • Winds of greater than 61 kph and up to 120 kph may be expected in at least 24 hours.
Impact of the Wind
  • Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
  • Few big trees may be uprooted.
  • Many banana plants may be downed.
  • Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
  • Large number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
  • Some old galvanized iron roofings may be peeled off.
  • In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities.
Precautionary Measures
  • The sea and coastal waters are dangerous to small seacrafts
  • Special attention should be given to the latest position, the direction and speed of movement and the intensity of the storm as it may intensify and move towards the locality.
  • The general public especially people travelling by sea and air are cautioned to avoid unnecessary risks.
  • Outdoor activities of children should be postponed.
  • Secure properties before the signal is upgraded.
  • Disaster preparedness agencies / organizations are in action to alert their communities.
What To Do
  • Prepare flashlights, batteries , matches, kerosene lamps, or candles and charcoal in anticipation of power failure, first aid kit and store ready to eat foods.
  • Keep your cell phones fully charged.
  • Elevate household things in case of flooding.
  • For fishing folks, secure fishing boats in safe area.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • Northern portion of Camarines Sur ( Cabugao
    • Libmanan
    • Pamplona
    • Pasacao
    • Sipocot
    • Lupi
    • Ragay
    • Del Gallego)
    • southern Nueva Ecija (Cabanatuan City
    • Cabiao
    • Gabaldon
    • Gapan City
    • General Tinio
    • Jaen
    • Laur
    • Palayan City
    • Peñaranda
    • San Antonio
    • San Isidro
    • San Leonardo
    • Santa Rosa
    • Aliaga
    • Licab
    • Zaragoza)
    • southern Aurora (Dipaculao
    • Maria Aurora
    • Baler
    • San Luis
    • Dingalan)
    • northern portion of Palawan (El Nido
    • Taytay
    • Araceli
    • Dumaran)
    • Cuyo Islands (Cuyo
    • Magsaysay
    • Agutaya)
    • Camarines Norte
    • Tarlac
    • rest of Quezon including Pollilo Islands
    • Romblon
    • rest of Camarines Sur
    • rest of Zambales
    • rest of Pampanga
    • and rest of Bulacan
  • Visayas
    • Northen Aklan (Malay
    • Buruanga
    • Nabas
    • Ibajay) and northern Antique (Caluya
    • Libertad
    • Pandan
  • Mindanao
Meteorological Condition
  • A tropical cyclone will affect the locality.
  • Winds of 30-60 kph may be expected in at least 36 hours or intermittent rains may be expected within 36 hours. (When the tropical cyclone develops very close to the locality a shorter lead time of the occurrence of the winds will be specified in the warning bulletin.)
Impact of the Wind
  • Twigs and branches of small trees may be broken.
  • Some banana plants may be tilted or downed.
  • Some houses of very light materials (nipa and cogon) may be partially unroofed.
  • Unless this warning signal is upgraded during the entire existence of the tropical cyclone, only very light or no damage at all may be sustained by the exposed communities.
  • Rice crop, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Precautionary Measures
  • When the tropical cyclone is strong or is intensifying and is moving closer, this signal may be upgraded to the next higher level.
  • The waves on coastal waters may gradually develop and become bigger and higher.
  • The people are advised to listen to the latest severe weather bulletin issued by PAGASA every six hours. In the meantime, business may be carried out as usual except when flood occur.
  • Disaster preparedness is activated to alert status.
What To Do
  • Inspect your house if necessary repair/fixing is needed.
  • Clean up drainage system.
  • Harvest crops tha can be yielded.
  • Monitor the latest Severe Weather Bulletin issued By PAGASA every six hours and hourly updates.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

 

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Dec, 2019 12:00 GMT

Typhoon KAMMURI is currently located near 13.2 N 120.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). KAMMURI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KAMMURI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

K3 DocR

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP21 RJTD 031200
WARNING 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1928 KAMMURI (1928) 980 HPA
AT 13.4N 119.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 14.3N 117.8E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 15.0N 116.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 13.9N 114.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 08.4N 112.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

Philippines

Go here (.pdf file) http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/tropical-cyclone-warning-for-shipping

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Ryukyu Islands/ Taiwan/ Philippines/ West Pacific: Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG 28W 22/1500Z 20.0°N 125.3°E, moving NNW 12kt. Wind 35kt, gust 50kt. 1006hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 22 Nov 2019 1900Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG (1927, 28W)

(‘Sarah’ in The Philippines)

TROPICAL STORM “SARAH” FURTHER WEAKENS AND IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) – PAGASA

Miyako Island (Miyakojima) beware!

Ishigaki Island and Okinawa be aware

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 14 FEET – JTWC

logo

1927-00-1

Weather warnings for Okinawa-honto Chiho (link)

 

TS 1927 (Fung-wong)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 22 November 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 22 November>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N24°40′ (24.7°)
E125°40′ (125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 70 km (40 NM)
NW 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 23 November>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N26°00′ (26.0°)
E125°35′ (125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 23 November>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N28°10′ (28.2°)
E126°05′ (126.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 1012 hPa
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

xxxx

TAIWAN

 

 

2019/11/22 12:00, Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG (201927) , Center Location 24.60N 125.50E, Movement: NNE 13KM/HR. Minimum Pressure 998 hpa, Maximum Wind Speed 18m/s, Gust 25m/s, Radius of 15m/s 120km. see: https://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/prevent/typhoon/ty.htm?

Philippines

Tropical Storm”Sarah”

Tropical Cyclone: ALERT

Issued at 11:00 pm, 22 November 2019
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5:00 am tomorrow.)
TROPICAL STORM “SARAH” FURTHER WEAKENS AND IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR).
  • “SARAH” is forecast to exit the PAR in the next 6 hours. Continuous weakening is expected.
  • Sea travel remains risky, especially for small sea crafts, over the seaboards of Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Ilocos Norte due to rough sea conditions associated with the Northeast Monsoon.
track-7
Location of Eye/center

At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm “SARAH” was estimated based on all available data at 600 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes (24.9 °N, 125.3 °E )

Movement

Moving North at 20 kph

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph

Forecast Position
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow evening): 960 km North Northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon(27.8°N, 126.9°E)
  • 48 Hour(Sunday evening):1,825 km Northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon(33.1°N, 133.7°E)
Wind Signal
No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next update to be incorporated in the 4 AM Public Weather Forecast and in the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 Nov, 2019 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG is currently located near 24.0 N 125.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). FUNG-WONG is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

DocR F22

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP21 RJTD 221200
WARNING 221200.
WARNING VALID 231200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1927 FUNG-WONG (1927) 1004 HPA
AT 24.3N 125.7E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 25.3N 125.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 27.1N 126.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1012 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines/ Taiwan/ Vietnam/ West Pacific: Typhoon KALMAEGI 27W 19/1500Z 19.7°N 122.5°E, Almost stationary. Wind 65kt, gust 95kt. 980hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 19 Nov 2019 1648Z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON KALMAEGI (1926, 27W)

(‘Ramon’ in The Philippines)

TY “RAMON” MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AND REMAINS A THREAT TO NORTHERN

CAGAYAN-BABUYAN ISLANDS AREA – PAGASA

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 21 FEET – JTWC

logo

1926-00-3

 

 

TY 1926 (Kalmaegi)
Issued at 15:40 UTC, 19 November 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 19 November>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N19°40′ (19.7°)
E122°30′ (122.5°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 20 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N17°40′ (17.7°)
E120°30′ (120.5°)
Direction and speed of movement SW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 20 November>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N15°35′ (15.6°)
E118°25′ (118.4°)
Direction and speed of movement SW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)

xxxx

Philippines

Typhoon”Ramon”

Tropical Cyclone: WARNING

Issued at 11:00 pm, 19 November 2019
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 2:00 am tomorrow.)

 

TY “RAMON” MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AND REMAINS A THREAT TO NORTHERN CAGAYAN-BABUYAN ISLANDS AREA.

  • Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal #3 is now in effect over Lal-lo and Allacapan in the northern portion of Cagayan.
  • Rainfall outlook for tonight and tomorrow (Wednesday):
  • Moderate with occasional to frequent heavy rains over Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands and Apayao. Light to moderate with intermittent heavy rains over Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Mt. Province, Kalinga, and the northern portion of Isabela.
  • Residents in the aforementioned areas, especially those living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to flooding and rain-induced landslides, are advised to take appropriate actions, coordinate with local disaster risk reduction and management offices, and continue monitoring for updates, especially the Thunderstorm or Rainfall Advisories and Heavy Rainfall Warnings to be issued by PAGASA Regional Services Divisions.
  • Coastal flooding may be experienced in the coastal areas under TCWS #3 and #2 due to high waves.
  • Sea travel is risky, especially for small sea crafts, over the seaboards of areas under TCWS, the seaboard of southern Isabela, and the western seaboard of Zambales and Bataan due to prevailing or forecast rough sea conditions.
  • “RAMON” is forecast to make landfall in Santa Ana-Calayan area in northern Cagayan tonight or tomorrow early morning. Significant weakening is expected during and after landfall due to land interaction and the Northeast Monsoon.
track-6
Location of Eye/center

At 10:00 PM today, the eye of Typhoon “RAMON” was located based on all available data including Aparri Doppler Radar at 100 km East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan or 45 km Northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan (18.7 °N, 122.5 °E )

Movement

Moving Southwest Slowly

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 150 kph

Forecast Position
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow evening): 140 km West Northwest of Iba, Zambales(15.6°N, 118.7°E)
  • 48 Hour(Thursday evening):80 km North Northeast of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(11.7°N, 114.3°E)
Wind Signal (Areas with TCWS)
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • Northern portion of Cagayan (Santa Praxedes
    • Claveria
    • Sanchez Mira
    • Pamplona
    • Abulug
    • Ballesteros
    • Aparri
    • Calayan
    • Camalaniugan
    • Buguey
    • Santa Teresita
    • Gonzaga
    • Santa Ana
    • Allacapan and Lal-lo)
  • Visayas
  • Mindanao
Meteorological Condition
  • A tropical cyclone will affect the locality.
  • Winds of greater than 121 kph up to 170 kph may be expected in at least 18 hours.
Impact of the Wind
  • Many coconut trees may be broken or destroyed.
  • Almost all banana plants may be downed and a large number of trees may be uprooted.
  • Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses.
  • Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed and there may be considerable damage to structures of light to medium construction.
  • There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
  • In general, moderate to heavy damage may be experienced, particularly in the agricultural and industrial sectors.
Precautionary Measures
  • The disturbance is dangerous to the communities threatened/affected.
  • The sea and coastal waters will be very dangerous to all seacrafts.
  • Travel is very risky especially by sea and air.
  • People are advised to seek shelter in strong buildings, evacuate low-lying areas and to stay away from the coasts and river banks.
  • Watch out for the passage of the “eye” of the typhoon indicated by a sudden occurrence of fair weather immediately after very bad weather with very strong winds coming gnerally from the north.
  • When the “eye” of the typhoon hit the community do not venture away from the safe shelter because after one to two hours the worst weather will resume with the very strong winds coming from the south.
  • Classes in all levels should be suspended and children should stay in the safety of strong buildings.
  • Disaster preparedness and response agencies/organizations are in action with appropriate response to actual emergency.
What To Do
  • If the house is not strong enough to withstand the battering of strong winds go to designated evacuation center aor seek shelter in stronger houses.
  • Stay in safe houses until after the disturbances has left the area.
  • Evacuate from low-lying area and reiverbanks and stay away from coastal areas for possible flooding and strom surge.
  • All travel and outdoor activities should be cancelled.
  • Watch out for the passage of the “Eye Wall and the “Eye” of the typhoon.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • Batanes
    • Apayao
    • Kalinga
    • Abra
    • Ilocos Norte
    • Ilocos Sur
    • and the rest of Cagayan
  • Visayas
  • Mindanao
Meteorological Condition
  • A tropical cyclone will affect the the locality.
  • Winds of greater than 61 kph and up to 120 kph may be expected in at least 24 hours.
Impact of the Wind
  • Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
  • Few big trees may be uprooted.
  • Many banana plants may be downed.
  • Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
  • Large number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
  • Some old galvanized iron roofings may be peeled off.
  • In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities.
Precautionary Measures
  • The sea and coastal waters are dangerous to small seacrafts
  • Special attention should be given to the latest position, the direction and speed of movement and the intensity of the storm as it may intensify and move towards the locality.
  • The general public especially people travelling by sea and air are cautioned to avoid unnecessary risks.
  • Outdoor activities of children should be postponed.
  • Secure properties before the signal is upgraded.
  • Disaster preparedness agencies / organizations are in action to alert their communities.
What To Do
  • Prepare flashlights, batteries , matches, kerosene lamps, or candles and charcoal in anticipation of power failure, first aid kit and store ready to eat foods.
  • Keep your cell phones fully charged.
  • Elevate household things in case of flooding.
  • For fishing folks, secure fishing boats in safe area.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • Northern portion of Isabela (Sta. Maria
    • San Pablo
    • Maconacon
    • Cabagan
    • Sto. Tomas
    • Quezon
    • Delfin Albano
    • Tumauini
    • Divilacan
    • Quirino
    • Roxas
    • Mallig
    • San Manuel
    • Burgos
    • Gamu and Ilagan City)
    • Mountain Province
    • Benguet
    • Ifugao
    • La Union
    • Pangasinan
  • Visayas
  • Mindanao
Meteorological Condition
  • A tropical cyclone will affect the locality.
  • Winds of 30-60 kph may be expected in at least 36 hours or intermittent rains may be expected within 36 hours. (When the tropical cyclone develops very close to the locality a shorter lead time of the occurrence of the winds will be specified in the warning bulletin.)
Impact of the Wind
  • Twigs and branches of small trees may be broken.
  • Some banana plants may be tilted or downed.
  • Some houses of very light materials (nipa and cogon) may be partially unroofed.
  • Unless this warning signal is upgraded during the entire existence of the tropical cyclone, only very light or no damage at all may be sustained by the exposed communities.
  • Rice crop, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Precautionary Measures
  • When the tropical cyclone is strong or is intensifying and is moving closer, this signal may be upgraded to the next higher level.
  • The waves on coastal waters may gradually develop and become bigger and higher.
  • The people are advised to listen to the latest severe weather bulletin issued by PAGASA every six hours. In the meantime, business may be carried out as usual except when flood occur.
  • Disaster preparedness is activated to alert status.
What To Do
  • Inspect your house if necessary repair/fixing is needed.
  • Clean up drainage system.
  • Harvest crops tha can be yielded.
  • Monitor the latest Severe Weather Bulletin issued By PAGASA every six hours and hourly updates.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 2 AM tomorrow.

xxxx

TAIWAN

Typhoon KALMAEGI (201926) , Center Location 19.40N 122.30E, Movement: SW 21KM/HR. Minimum Pressure 970 hpa, Maximum Wind Speed 33m/s, Gust 43m/s, Radius of 15m/s 100km, Radius of 25m/s 50km. see: https://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/prevent/typhoon/ty.htm?


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 19 Nov, 2019 12:00 GMT

Typhoon KALMAEGI is currently located near 19.4 N 122.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). KALMAEGI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KALMAEGI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

K19 DrR

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 


WTJP32 RJTD 191500
WARNING 191500.
WARNING VALID 201500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 980 HPA
AT 19.7N 122.5E BASHI CHANNEL ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200300UTC AT 17.7N 120.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201500UTC AT 15.6N 118.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Mexico/ East Pacific: Tropical Storm RAYMOND 20E 15/2100Z 14.7N 109.4W, moving NNW ~5.9kt 1002mb (NHC FL) – Updated 15 Nov 2019 2103Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm RAYMOND 20E

……TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND SLOWLY STRENGTHENING……

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND…

….. the center of Raymond is
expected to be near the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula late Sunday or early Monday……NHC FL

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

 

 

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 152035
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
200 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

…TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND SLOWLY STRENGTHENING…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.7N 109.4W
ABOUT 565 MI…915 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Raymond.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 109.4 West. Raymond is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn
toward the north with a slightly faster forward speed is anticipated
on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Raymond is
expected to be near the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula late Sunday or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is
possible tonight, followed by weakening by early Sunday. Raymond is
predicted to degenerate into a remnant low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja
California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This
rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Mello

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTPZ25 KNHC 151442
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 108.8W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 108.8W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 108.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.1N 109.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT… 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.4N 110.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…100NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.1N 110.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N 110.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 24.3N 110.2W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 108.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Iwo Jima(Japan) /Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI)/ West Pacific: Typhoon FENGSHEN (26W) 15/1500Z 21.7°N 142.2°E, moving N 11kt. Wind 85kt, gust 120kt. 965hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 15 Nov 2019 1900Z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON FENGSHEN (26W)

FENGSHEN is a CAT 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, expected to become a CAT 4 on same scale by 16 Nov, 0:00 UTC (TSR UCL London data)

Japanese/ US Military on Iwo Jima beware!

 

logo

1925-00-1

 

TY 1925 (Fengshen)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 15 November 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 15 November>
Scale
Intensity Very strong
Center position N21°40′ (21.7°)
E142°10′ (142.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 100 km (55 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 16 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N23°50′ (23.8°)
E143°25′ (143.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 160 km (85 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 16 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N25°05′ (25.1°)
E146°10′ (146.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N24°35′ (24.6°)
E149°25′ (149.4°)
Direction and speed of movement E 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 170 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 November>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N24°05′ (24.1°)
E146°25′ (146.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 300 km (160 NM)

xxxx

NWS WFO Guam

 

 

 

 

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 151548
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Fengshen (26W) Advisory Number 17
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP262019
148 AM ChST Sat Nov 16 2019

…FENGSHEN NOW A CATEGORY 3 TYPHOON…

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
————————–
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
Location…21.6N 142.3E

About 230 miles south-southeast of Iwo To
About 295 miles northwest of Agrihan
About 330 miles northwest of Pagan
About 360 miles northwest of Alamagan
About 500 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 585 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds…125 mph
Present movement…NNW…335 degrees at 13 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 AM ChST…1500 UTC…the center of Typhoon Fengshen was
located near Latitude 21.6 degrees North and Longitude 142.3 degrees
East. Fengshen is moving north-northwest at 13 mph and is making a
gradual curve to the northeast. While Fengshen is expected to speed
up slightly the next day or two, it will slow down as it makes a
broad clockwise loop well north of the northern Mariana Islands over
the weekend and into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 125 mph, making Fengshen a
Category 3 typhoon. Typhoon Fengshen is expected to intensify a
slight bit more through today before peaking in intensity this
evening. Fengshen will then begin to slowly weaken.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 35 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to 120
miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 800 AM.

$$

W. Aydlett


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NO STORM ALERT

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

EJKI2PvXUAAjXGS

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 151800
WARNING 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1925 FENGSHEN (1925) 965 HPA
AT 22.4N 142.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 24.4N 144.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 25.4N 147.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 24.4N 149.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 25.1N 145.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India/ Bangladesh/ Myanmar/ Bay Of Bengal: Tropical Cyclone MATMO/ Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘BULBUL’ 23W 09/1500Z position nr 21.4N 88.1E, moving NNE 06kt (JTWC)- Published 09 Nov 2019 1833Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone MATMO/ Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘BULBUL’ (23W)

MATMO is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT  WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 28 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 23W (Matmo) Warning #17
Issued at 09/1500Z

wp2319

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
091200Z — NEAR 21.2N 87.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 030 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 87.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 22.0N 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 22.6N 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 23.0N 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 88.1E.
09NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 88 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 23W HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH A DISTINCT EYE FORMING
BUT NOW STARTING TO FILL AND WARM ONCE AGAIN. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF BD ENHANCED
EIR IMAGERY DEPICTING A 10 NM WIDE EYE, INDIAN COMPOSITE RADAR DATA
AND SUPPORTED BY A 091206Z SSMIS 89 GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWING A
VERY DISTINCT MICROWAVE EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION,
PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
BUMPED UP TO 85 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) IN LIGHT OF AN
AUTOMATED TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 87 KNOTS. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, TC 23W HAS UNDERGONE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AS IT MOVED OVER RELATIVELY
SHALLOW, BUT VERY WARM, WATERS AND BEGAN TO TAP INTO THE DIVERGENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SSTS AND MODERATE
(20-25 KNOTS) VWS. TC 23W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM HAS PEAKED IN
INTENSITY AND IS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY EVEN BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL, WITH A MUCH MORE RAPID WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL AS A
COMBINATION OF TERRAIN INTERACTION AND DECAPITATION TAKE THEIR TOLL
ON THE SYSTEM. THE FIRST HINTS OF A DECOUPLING OF THE UPPER AND
LOWER LEVELS ARE EVIDENT IN THE 091206Z SSMIS IMAGERY, WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL EYE ABOUT 5 NM NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE. THIS
EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR INCREASES AND
THE SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 12, BUT THEREAFTER DEVELOPS A BIFURCATION SCENARIO. THE
ECMWF AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE REPRESENT THE LEFT ARM OF THE
BIFURCATION, TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST. THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS REPRESENTED BY THE REMAINDER OF
THE CONSENSUS MODELS, WHICH TURN THE LOW LEVEL REMNANTS OF SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTH AND BACK OUT TO SEA AFTER IT IS DECAPITATED BETWEEN TAU 18
AND 24. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
IN LIGHT OF THE LARGE DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z,
100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
NNNN

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre

.BULLETIN NO.: 38 (BOB/04/2019)

TIMEOFISSUE: 2140 HOURS IST DATED: 09.11.2019

FROM:INDIAMETEOROLOGICALDEPARTMENT(FAXNO.24643965/24699216/24623220)TO:CONTROLROOM,NDM,MINISTRYOFHOMEAFFAIRS(FAX.NO.23092398/23093750)CONTROLROOMNDMA(FAX.NO.26701729)JSNDMA (FAX.NO. 26701864)CABINETSECRETARIAT(FAX.NO.23012284,23018638)PSTOHON’BLEMINISTERFORS&TANDEARTHSCIENCES(FAXNO.23316745)SECRETARY,MOES,(FAXNO.24629777)H.Q.(INTEGRATEDDEFENCESTAFFANDCDS)(FAXNO.23005137/23005147)DIRECTORGENERAL,DOORDARSHAN(23385843)DIRECTORGENERAL,AIR(23421101,23421105,23421219)PIBMOES(FAXNO.23389042)UNI(FAXNO.23355841)D.G.NATIONALDISASTERRESPONSEFORCE(NDRF)(FAXNO.26105912,24363260)DIRECTOR,PUNCTUALITY,INDIANRAILWAYS(FAXNO.23388503)CHIEF SECRETARY, TAMILNADU (FAX NO.044-25672304)CHIEF SECRETARY,GOVT. OF ODISHA (FAX NO. 0674-2536660)CHIEF SECRETARY, WEST BENGAL (FAX NO. 033-22144328) CHIEF SECRETARY, ANDHRA PRADESH (FAX NO. 0863-2441029)CHIEF SECRETARY, ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS (FAX NO. 03192-232656)

Sub:Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Bulbul’ (Pronounced as Bul bul) over northwest Bay of Bengal:

CYCLONE WARNING AND POST-LANDFALL OUTLOOK FOR WEST BENGAL COAST: REDMESSAGE

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm‘Bulbul’ (Pronounced as Bul bul) over northwest Bay of Bengal moved northeastwards with a speed of 11kmph during past 06 hours, and lay centred at 2030hrs ISTof today, the 9thNovember 2019, over northwest Bay of Bengal, near Lat.21.4°N and Long. 88.3°E about40km east-southeastof Sagar Islands (West Bengal),85kmeast-southeast of Digha, 125km south-southwest of Kolkata,100 km south-southwestof Canning Town (west Bengal)and210km west-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh). The land fall process has started. Wall cloud region is entering into land.Itis very likely tomovenortheastwards, weaken graduallyandcross West Bengal-Bangladesh Coasts between Sagar Islands(West Bengal)and Khepupara (Bangladesh), across Sunderbandelta during next 03 hoursas a Severe Cyclonic Storm with maximum sustained wind speed of 110-120 Kmph gusting to 135 Kmph.The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Bulbul’is being tracked by the Doppler Weather Radars atGopalpur, Paradip and Kolkata in addition to other observing platforms.Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:Date/Time(IST)PositionMaximum sustained surfacewind speed (kmph)Category of cyclonic disturbanceLat. (0N) Long. (0E)09.11.19/203021.488.3120-130gusting to 145Very Severe Cyclonic Storm09.11.19/233021.888.7110-120 gusting to 135SevereCyclonic Storm10.11.19/053022.489.380-90 gusting to 100Cyclonic Storm10.11.19/113022.990.050-60 gusting to 70Deep Depression10.11.19/173023.190.630-40 gusting to 50DepressionIndia Meteorological DepartmentEarth System Science Organisation(Ministry of Earth Sciences)

Warnings:

(i) Rainfall:

Odisha:Light to moderate rainfall at mostplaces very likely over northcoastal districts of Odishawith isolated heavy fallsover Balasore districtduring next 03hours.

West Bengal:Light to moderate rainfall at most places very likely over coastal districts of West Bengal with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls ( ≥ 20 cm in 24 hours)at isolated places over North &South 24 Parganas, East Medinipurand isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over West Medinipur, Howrah and Hooghly during next 12 hours.

North-eastern States:Light to moderate rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls very likely over South Assam& Meghalaya, Tripura, and Mizoram during next 36hours

.(ii) Wind warning

Bay of Bengal:Galewind speed reaching 120-130kmph gusting to 145kmphis prevailing over northwest Bay of Bengal around the system centre.It is very likely to decreasegradually and become80-90kmph gusting to 100kmph by tomorrow the 10thNovember morningand decrease gradually thereafter.

Odisha coast: Squallywind speed reaching 50-60kmphgusting to 70kmphis likely along & offBalasore districtfor next 3hours.Kendrapara and Jagatsinghpurdistricts are likely to experience strong wind speed reaching 35-45kmph gusting to 55kmph during next03hours.

West Bengal coast: Squally wind speed reaching 70-80kmph gusting to 90kmph is prevailing along and offWest Bengal coast.It will graduallyincrease becoming galewind speed reaching 110-120kmph gusting to 135kmph during next 06hours along & off WestandEast Medinipur andNorth & South 24 Parganasdistrictsand decrease gradually thereafter.Squally wind speed reaching 50-60Kmph gusting to 70 Kmph also likely over adjoining districts of West Medinipur, Howrahand Hooghlyduring the same periodand strong wind speed reaching30 -40 kmphgusting to 50 kmph likely to prevail over Kolkataduring the same period..

(iii) Sea condition

Sea condition will be high to very roughduring next 06 hours along & off north Odisha coast and along & off West Bengal & Bangladesh coasts till10thNovembermorning.Sea condition isvery high to phenomenal over northwest Bay of Bengal. It is very likely to to improve and becomevery rough to Highby tomorrow, the 10thNovember morning andimprove gradually thereafter. Sea condition will be high to very high over northeast Bay of tonightand become highto very rough for subsequent 12 hours.

(iv)Storm Surge

Storm surge of about 1.0 to 2.0meter height above Astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low lying areas of South and North 24 Parganas and 0.5-1.0 meter height above Astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low lying areas of east Medinipurduring next 03 hours.The maximum extent of inundation is likely to be around 2 km over South and North 24 Parganas.

(v)Fishermen Warning

Total suspension of fishing operations over Odisha-West Bengal coaststill morningof 10thNovember.Fishermen are advised not to venture into Sea along & off Odisha –West Bengal coasts till 10thmorning.Fishermen are advised not to venture into north Bay of Bengal for next 24 hours.

(vi)Damage Expected over coastal districts of West Bengal:

Major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly.Minor damage to power and communication lines.Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Moderate damage to banana and papaya trees.Dead limbs blown from trees. Major damage to coastal crops. Damage to embankments/ salt pans.Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.

vii) Action suggestedfor coastal districts of West Bengal

Total suspension of fishing operations till 10thmorning.Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places.

Mobilise evacuation from coastal areas of South and North 24 Parganas. People in affected areas to remain indoors.Rail and Road traffic to be regulated.Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe.Beach movement to be restricted

Post-Landfall Outlook

After the landfall over Sunderban delta by night of today, the 9th November as a Severe Cyclonic Storm with a wind speed of 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph, it is very likely to move east-northeastwards across Bangladesh and weaken gradually. As such, the system is expected to maintain Cyclone intensity till 10th morning over Bangladesh and adjoining areas of Gangetic West Bengal North and South 24 Parganas and Nadiya district.

Under its influence, light to moderate rainfall atmost places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over North and South 24 Parganas and Nadiya districts of West Bengaltill the morning of 10thNovember2019.

Gale wind speed reaching 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph is likely over North and South 24 Parganas and Nadiya districts of West Bengal during the night of today, the 9thNovember for the next 06 hoursand decrease gradually thereafter becoming squally wind speed reaching 50-60Kmph gusting to 70 Kmph over thesedistricts till 10thmorning.

Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 Kmph gusting to 60 Kmph is likely over adjoining districts of West Medinipur, Howrah and Hooghly during the same period.

Strong wind speed reaching,30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph is likely over Kolkata during the night of today, 9thNovember 2019.

The next bulletin will beissued at 0230hrs IST of 10thNovember,2019.

(V.R. Durai)Scientist-E, RSMC,NewDelh

Source: http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

Synoptic Chart 09/11/2019,0600 UTC

 

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN, SL NO: 27 (TWENTY SEVEN), DATE: 09.11.2019
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “BULBUL” (ECP: 988 HPA) OVER NORTHWEST BAY
AND ADJOINING AREA WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “BULBUL”, MOVED

NORTHEASTWARDS AT A SPEED OF ABOUT 08 KPH AND STARTED CROSSING WEST BENGAL-
KHULNA COAST (NEAR SUNDERBAN) AT ABOUT 09 PM TODAY (09 NOVEMBER, 2019) AND NOW

LIES OVER NORTHWEST BAY AND ADJOINING COASTAL AREAS OF GANGETIC WEST BENGAL &
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF BANGLADESH (LAT. 21.4°N, LONG. 88.3°E). IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION FURTHER, WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND MAY COMPLETE CROSSING
WEST BENGAL-KHULNA COAST BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT (09 NOVEMBER, 2019).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 64 KMS OF THE SEVERE CYCLONE CENTRE IS
ABOUT 100 KPH RISING TO 120 KPH IN GUSTS/SQUALLS. SEA WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH NEAR THE
SEVERE CYCLONE CENTRE.
MARITIME PORTS OF MONGLA AND PAYRA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED GREAT
DANGER SIGNAL NO. TEN (R) TEN. COASTAL DISTRICTS OF BHOLA, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI,
BARISHAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE
ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER GREAT DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER TEN (R) TEN.
MARITIME PORT OF CHATTOGRAM HAS BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED GREAT DANGER
SIGNAL NO. NINE (R) NINE. COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHATTOGRAM, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI,
CHANDPUR AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER GREAT DANGER
SIGNAL NUMBER NINE (R) NINE.
MARITIME PORT OF COX’S BAZAR HAS BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED LOCAL WARNING
SIGNAL NUMBER FOUR (R) FOUR.
THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF KHULNA, SATKHIRA, CHATTOGRAM, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR,
FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, BHOLA, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI,
BAGERHAT AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WIND SPEED
UP TO 80-100 KPH IN GUSTS/ SQUALLS WITH HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS DURING THE PASSAGE
OF THE STORM.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “BULBUL” AND THE
MOON PHASE, THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHATTOGRAM, NOAKHALI,
LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, BHOLA, PATUAKHALI, BARISHAL, PIROZPUR,
JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE
LIKELY TO BE INUNDATED BY STORM SURGE OF 5-7 FEET HEIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.
ALL FISHING BOATS AND TRAWLERS OVER NORTH BAY HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO REMAIN
IN SHELTER TILL FURTHER NOTICE.

TO
1. HON’BLE MINISTER, MINISTRY OF DISASTER & RELIEF. FAX: 9545405.
2. CABINET SECRETARY, FAX: 9566559.
3. PRINCIPAL SECRETARY TO THE HON’BLE PRIME MINISTER. FAX: 9143377
4. SECRETARY TO THE HON’BLE PRIME MINISTER, FAX: 8128799
5. SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF DEFENCE, FAX: 9110535,
6. SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FAX: 9540555
7. SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF DISASTER MANAGEMENT AND RELIEF, FAX: 9566559/9545405.
8. SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES, FAX: 9576773.
9. JOINT SECY. (W&D), MOD, FAX: 9110535. 10. SSF, FAX:8111351/9113651 , 11. CPP, FAX: 933 8401. 12. DDM : 9851615.
13. NHQ, FAX: 8754270, 9885633. 14. SHIPPING MINISTRY, FAX: 9660311, 9562007, 15. NDRCC, FAX: 9549148, 9540567
16. BIWTA, FAX: 9551072. 17. BTV FAX: 8312927.18. BETAR FAX: 8117850.19. FFWC, FAX 9557386.20. UNB, FAX: 9344556
21. BSS, FAX 9557929 22. MMO, CTG, FAX: 031-2500988 23. CDMP, FAX: 9890854. 24.COAST GUARD, FAX: 9140092
25.PORT AUTHORITIES, MONGLA 04662-75224 26.PORT AUTHORITIES, CHITTAGONG: 710593 27. BSS: 9557929, 9551052
28. HON’BLE PRIME MINISTER’S, ARMED FORCES DEPT. (AFD), FAX: 8754399, 8115900, 8823233.
29. BANGLADESH ARMY, FAX: 8754455 30. BANGLADESH AIR FORCE, FAX: 8751931 31. REUTERS: 8312976
32. BIWTC: 9563653. 33. ATN: 8111876/ 9139883 34. UNHCR: 8826557 35. SPARRSO: 8113080 36. UNDP: 8123196
37. channel I: 9343674 38. RTV: 9130879-80 39.JIKA BD :9891689 40. PORT AUTHORITIES, PAYRA, FAX. 031-2510889.
41. D.C COX’S BAZAR: 0341-63263. 42. SOMOY TV: 9670057, 43.INDEPENDENT TV:8879001-2, 44. ETV: 8189905-6
EPENDENT TV:8879001-2, 45. ETV: 8189905-6

Phone: 9135742, 9141437
FAX : 9119230,58152019
Web Site: http://www.bmd.gov.bd
Email: info@bmd.gov.bd

Govt. of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Bangladesh Meteorological Department
StormWarningCenter
Agargaon, Dhaka-1207

(Dr. Muhammad Abul Kalam Mallik)

Meteorologist
For Director
09, 2200 BST

xxxx

MYANMAR

DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY (MYANMAR)

9. 11.2019)    According to the observations at (21:30)hrs M.S.T today, the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm over the Notrhwest Bay of Bengal has moved to Northeastwards. It has started crossing West Bengal and Bangladesh Coast between Sagar Islands and Khepupara.Weather is cloudy over the North Bay and Westcentral Bay and partly cloudy over the Andaman Sea and elsewhere over the Bay of Bengal.

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm No.28, 2019

9th November, 2019 22:00 MST Today

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

According to the observations at (21:30)hrs M.S.T today, the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm over the Notrhwest Bay of Bengal has moved to Northeastwards. It has started crossing West Bengal and Bangladesh Coast between Sagar Islands and Khepupara.

During next (12)hrs forecast

          The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “BULBUL” continuously move to Bangladesh Coast during next (12)hrs. It is downgraded into Severe Cyclonic Storm and forecast to move Northeastwards.

General caution

Due to the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “BULBUL”, rain or thundershowers will be fairly widespread to widespread in Sagaing, Mandalay, Magway, Bago, Yangon and Ayeyarwady Regions and Kachin, Southern Shan, Chin and Rakhine States, isolated to scattered in Naypyitaw, Tanintharyi Region, (Northern and Eastern)Shan, Kayah, Kayin and Mon States with likelihood of isolated heavyfalls in Sagaing, Mandalay and Magway Regions, Chin and Rakhine States within next (48)hours commencing tonight.

          Frequent squalls with rough to very rough seas will be experienced off and along Rakhine Coasts. Surface wind speed in squalls may reach (55-60)m.p.h. Sea will be moderate to rough elsewhere in Myanmar waters. Wave height will be about (10-15) feet in off and along Rakhine Coasts and (7-9) feet in Deltaic, Gulf of Mottama, off and along Mon-Taninthayi Coast.

Advisory

          Strong wind, heavy rainfall and landslide may occur due to the influence of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “BULBUL”. People who are living near high land areas in Sagaing Region, Chin and Rakhine States, beware of landslide event and trawlers, vessels and ships off and along Rakhine Coast are advised to avert possible condition.

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Vietnam/ Laos/ Cambodia/ South China Sea: Severe Tropical Storm NAKRI 25W 09/1500Z 12.4°N 112.7°E, moving W 06kt. Wind 60 kt, gust 85 kt. 980hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 09 Nov 2019 1653Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm NAKRI (1924, 25W)

Vietnam/ Laos/ Cambodia be aware

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 19 FEET – JTWC

logo

1924-00-3

 

STS 1924 (Nakri)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 9 November 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 9 November>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N12°25′ (12.4°)
E112°40′ (112.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 10 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N12°40′ (12.7°)
E111°20′ (111.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 10 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N13°05′ (13.1°)
E109°55′ (109.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 11 November>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N14°30′ (14.5°)
E106°50′ (106.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Radius of probability circle 170 km (90 NM)

xxxx

VIETNAM

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WARNING (Storm number 6)
TC TRACKS
dbqg_xtnd_20191109_2300
 
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WARNING (Storm number 6)

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

22 Saturday, November 09, 2019 12.5 112.7 STS 111 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

10 Sunday, November 10, 2019 12.7 111.4 STS 102 km/hour
22 Sunday, November 10, 2019 13.2 109.9 STS 93 km/hour
10 Monday, November 11, 2019 13.6 108.2 TD 46 km/hour
22 Monday, November 11, 2019 14.2 106.6 LOW 37 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 02:30 AM Sunday, November 10, 2019
Satellite Imagery

xxxx


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 9 Nov, 2019 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NAKRI is currently located near 12.7 N 113.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). NAKRI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Nha Trang (12.2 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours
    Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Laos
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
    Cambodia
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kon Tum (14.3 N, 108.0 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

DocR N9

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP32 RJTD 091500
WARNING 091500.
WARNING VALID 101500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1924 NAKRI (1924) 980 HPA
AT 12.4N 112.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100300UTC AT 12.7N 111.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101500UTC AT 13.1N 109.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

 

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Oman/ Yemen/ Somalia/ Arabian Sea: Severe Cyclonic Storm KYARR 04A 291500Z position near 19.5N 62.9E, moving NW 02kt (JTWC) – Updated 29 Oct 2019 1955Z (GMT/UTC)

SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR

KYARR is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (TSR UCL London data)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 45 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Tropical Cyclone 04A (Kyarr) Warning #20
Issued at 29/1500Z

io0419-2

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
291200Z — NEAR 19.5N 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 63.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 19.6N 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 19.4N 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z — 19.0N 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 18.3N 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 17.0N 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 14.3N 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 11.8N 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 62.9E.
29OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND,
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A WEAK EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 291158Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED LOWER AT
105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5 (102
KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW, CONSISTENT WITH A 291230Z CIMSS SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS. TC 04A IS TRACKING SLOWLY WITHIN A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL
RIDGES (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE WESTERN STR WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DEGRADE WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36
DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW AND
POTENTIALLY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
MODERATE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
NNNN

 

 

 

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICALCYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO.38

FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHITO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN) METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)NATIONAL CENTRE FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY No. 38 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 1700UTC OF 29.10.2019 BASED ON 1500 UTC OF 29.10.2019.

SUB:(A) EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘KYARR’ (PRONOUNCED AS KYARR) OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL & NORTH ARABIAN SEA

.(B) WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKSHADWEEP, MALDIVES& ADJOINING COMORIN AREA

(A) EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘KYARR’ (PRONOUNCED AS KYARR) OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL& NORTH ARABIAN SEA

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM‘KYARR’OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL & NORTH ARABIAN SEA MOVED SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 04KMPH DURING PAST 06 HRS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1500HRS UTC OF 29THOCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 19.5°N AND LONGITUDE 62.9°E,ABOUT 1040 KM WEST-NORTHWESTOF MUMBAI (MAHARASHTRA), 990KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN) AND 440KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 30THOCTOBERMORNING,RE-CURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEREAFTER AND MOVE TOWARDS GULF OF ADENOFF SOUTH OMAN-YEMEN COASTS DURING SUBSEQUENT 3 DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE 0600UTCOF 30THOCTOBER AND FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY THE 0000UTCOF 31STOCTOBER.

FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:DATE/TIME(IST)POSITION(LAT.0N/LONG.0E)MAXIMUMSUSTAINEDSURFACEWINDSPEED(KMPH)CATEGORYOFCYCLONICDISTURBANCE29.10.19/150019.5/62.9180-190 GUSTING TO 210EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM29.10.19/180019.6/62.7170-180GUSTING TO 200EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM30.10.19/000019.6/62.3160-170GUSTING TO 190EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM30.10.19/060019.5/61.9145-155GUSTING TO 170VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM30.10.19/120019.4/61.6130-140 GUSTING TO 155VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM31.10.19/000019.1/61.1110-120 GUSTING TO 130SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM31.10.19/120018.6/60.490-100 GUSTING TO 110SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM01.11.19/000017.7/59.370-80 GUSTING TO 90CYCLONIC STORM01.11.19/120016.7/58.260-70 GUSTING TO 80CYCLONIC STORM02.11.19/000015.7/57.050-60 GUSTING TO 70DEEP DEPRESSION02.11.19/120014.7/55.940-50GUSTING TO 60DEPRESSION03.11.19/000013.7/54.825-35 GUSTING TO 45DEPRESSIONREMARKS:AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 1500 UTC OF 29THOCTOBER, 2019, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 5.5/CI 5.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIES OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT 17.50NTO 21.00N AND LONG 61.00E TO 64.50E. THE MINIMUM CTT IS MINUS 93DEG C.THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO 130KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943HPA. THE SEACONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.AT 1500 UTC A SHIP LOCATED NEAR LAT. 16.0°N / 64.5°E REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 1008.8HPAAND WIND 1900/25 KNOTS.THE MJO LIES IN THE PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT WILL REMAIN IN THE SAME PHASE DURING NEXT 3 DAYS AND ENTER INTO PHASE 4 WITH AMPLITDUE LESS THAN 1 THEREAFTER. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ABOUT 250X10-5 SEC-1TOTHESOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30X10-5S-1TO THE SOUTHEASTOF THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 20X10-5S-1TO THE SOUTHEAST OFTHE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE(15-20KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER OVER MOST PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA IS AROUND 27-28°C WHILE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE, IT IS WARMER(29-30°C). TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTEROVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEAS IS 20-40 KJ/CM2WHILE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, IT IS 50-80 KJ/CM2.TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERIES INDICATE CONTINUEDREDUCTION IN WARM AND DRY AIR INCURSION IN THE SOUTHWESTERNSECTORSOF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS TAKING PLACE IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS. ALL THESE ENVIRONMENTAL, DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS INDICATE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 19°N. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BYTHEWINDS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE LOCATED TO THE EASTOF THE SYSTEM.AS A RESULT, IT IS CONTINUING TO MOVEWEST-NORTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY BEING IN THE COL REGION. ITWILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THEANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER ARABIAN PENINSULA, LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF SYSTEMBY 0000 UTC OF 30THOCTOBER.SUBSEQUENTLY THE SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDSAND VERY LIKELY TO MOVE TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN OFF SOUTH OMAN-YEMEN COASTS THEREAFTER.MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THE ABOVE INFERENCE.

WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKSHADWEEP, MALDIVES& ADJOINING COMORIN AREATHE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKSHADWEEP, MALDIVES& ADJOINING COMORIN AREAPERSISTS. IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION OVER LAKSHADWEEP-MALDIVES AREAS AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS.

(V R DURAI)SCIENTIST-F, RSMC, NEW DELH

Source: National Bulletin


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NO TSR Storm Alert

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

K29 Doc R

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

WINDY

https://www.windy.com/?18.663,61.875,5

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

India

WTIN01 DEMS 291800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 29 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM\U92ADYARR\U4E39VER WESTCENTRAL
AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL AND NORTH ARABIAN SEA MOVED SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 2 KTS DURING PAST 06 HRS AND LAY
CENTRED AT 1200 HRS UTC OF 29 TH OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 DEG
N AND LONGITUDE 63.1 DEG E, ABOUT 1020 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI
(MAHARASHTRA), 990 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN) AND 460 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 30 TH OCTOBER MORNING,RE-CURVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEREAFTER AND MOVE TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN OFF
SOUTH OMAN-YEMEN COASTS DURING SUBSEQUENT 3 DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO WEAKEN INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE 0600 UTC OF 30
TH OCTOBER AND FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY THE 0000 UTC
OF 31 ST OCTOBER (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO
130 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/10/30 AT 00 UTC 19.6 N / 62.3 E MAX WIND 90 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/10/30 AT 12 UTC 19.4 N / 61.6 E MAX WIND 80 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER COMORIN AREA AND ADJOINING
EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN NOW LIES OVER LAKSHADWEEP-MALDIVES AREAS AND
ADJOINING COMORIN AREA. THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPTO MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE
INTO A DEPRESSION OVER LAKSHADWEEP-MALDIVES AREAS AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 24HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS AND INTENSIFY INTO DEEP
DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 70 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N: CYCLONIC
20/30 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)E OF 65 DEG E 1.5-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO
THE E OF 70 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 66 DEG E: CYCLONIC 85/90 KTS (.)
2)E OF 66 DEG E : NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 10/20 KTS TO THE S
OF 14 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: OVER 14 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 65 DEG E:CYCLONIC 70/75 KTS (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E: CYCLONIC 30/35 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 6 D EG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA VARIABLE 03 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG N: CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 87 DEG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US/ Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN 17L 25/1500Z 25.6N 94.4W, moving N ~14.03kt 1006 mb (NHC FL) – Published 25 Oct 2019 1930Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN 17L

(Future Cyclone OLGA)

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A GALE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL LOW TONIGHT…NHC FL

 

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

143243_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

000
WTNT32 KNHC 251431
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A GALE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL LOW TONIGHT…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…25.6N 94.4W
ABOUT 320 MI…515 KM SSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in
effect.

Please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service and products from local National Weather Service forecast
offices for information on the non-tropical watches and warnings
associated with this system.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Seventeen was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 94.4 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
motion toward the north-northeast at a faster forward speed is
expected this afternoon through Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone should move across the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico this afternoon and then move over the northern Gulf coast
tonight or Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected today, and the depression could
become a tropical storm this afternoon. The cyclone is then
expected to merge with a cold front and become a post-tropical low
with gale-force winds tonight before the center reaches the Gulf
coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the depression this afternoon.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Gale-force winds associated with this system should spread
over portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight and Saturday
morning.

RAINFALL: The depression and rainfall ahead of the system along and
north of the frontal boundary across the Central Gulf coast is
expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
with maximum totals of 8 inches across the Central Gulf coast into
the Lower Mississippi Valley through Saturday morning. These rains
may produce flash flooding across the Central Gulf coast into the
Lower Mississippi Valley.

COASTAL FLOODING: Above-normal tides and associated coastal
flooding are possible across portions of the northern Gulf coast.
Please see products from local National Weather Service forecast
offices for additional information.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible through tonight across
southeast portions of Louisiana and Mississippi into southwest
Alabama.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 18 Oct, 2019 9:00 GMT

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 25 Oct, 2019 15:00 GMT

Tropical Depression AL17 is currently located near 25.6 N 94.4 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). AL17 is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours
    Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT22 KNHC 251431
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172019
1500 UTC FRI OCT 25 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN
EFFECT.

PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND PRODUCTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES FOR INFORMATION ON THE NON-TROPICAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 94.4W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 94.4W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 94.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.2N 93.1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 80NE 0SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 32.6N 91.3W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 38.1N 89.1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 43.2N 85.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 94.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

FZNT01 KWBC 251604
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC FRI OCT 25 2019

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

METAREA IV BULLETIN WILL ONLY BE BROADCAST FROM THE INMARSAT
AOE SATELLITE. PLEASE ENSURE YOUR RECEIVER IS POINTED
CORRECTLY.

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
ATLANTIC ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.SHTML
(LOWERCASE EXCEPT CAPITAL A IN ATL).

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 27.

.WARNINGS.

…STORM WARNING…
.LOW E OF AREA 36N33W 992 MB MOVING E 10 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS FROM 32N TO 42N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT.
SEAS 16 TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 31N TO 47N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA 36N28W 999 MB. NEW LOW 38N53W
1008 MB RAPDILY INTENSIFYING. FROM 31N TO 38N BETWEEN 35W AND
38W N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT IN N SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM
31N TO 42N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO
14 FT IN N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FIRST LOW WELL E OF AREA 41N23W 1000 MB.
SECOND LOW 41N48W 978 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 40
TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 31N TO 43N BETWEEN
35W AND 62W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.FROM 50N TO 55N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 47N TO 55N BETWEEN 35W AND 52W
WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 53N43W 1016 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NE
QUADRANT AND FROM 45N TO 50N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 42N TO 58N WINDS LESS THAN 25
KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW MEAN CENTER 55N43W 1004 MB. WITHIN
180 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 43N TO 60N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 59N58W 1003 MB MOVING NW 20 KT. WITHIN 270 NM N OF LINE
FROM 65N63W TO 55N48W SE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 18
FT…HIGHEST NEAR 67N57W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 65N66W 1006 MB. WITHIN 120 NM N
OF LINE FROM 67N61W TO 60N50W SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 60N BETWEEN 47W AND 63W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW N OF AREA. CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 55N TO 60N W OF 57W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 50N TO 55N W OF 54W NW TO N WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

.DENSE FOG. 24 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 55N TO 62N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 50N TO 55N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W.

.HIGH 39N67W 1028 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N61W 1021 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 63N39W 1026 MB MOVING SE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF AREA 60N33W 1022 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF AREA.

.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 31N54W 1022 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 27.

.WARNINGS.

…GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING…
.COLD FRONT FROM 30N94.5W TO 23N96W TO 22N98W. W OF FRONT NW TO
N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN NEAR 25.6N 94.4W 1006 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 25 MOVING N
OR 010 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
WITHIN 120 NM E AND 45 NM W SEMICIRCLES OF T.D. WINDS 25 TO 30
KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 22.5N BETWEEN 88W AND 95W SE
TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N89W TO 18N93W. POST-
TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL SEVENTEEN INLAND NEAR 32.6N 91.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. S OF 28.5N W OF FRONT
NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT…HIGHEST S OF 20N. SEAS 8 TO 15
FT…HIGHEST S OF 21N. N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N84.5W TO 18.5N93W. POST-
TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL SEVENTEEN NEAR 43.2N 85.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. S OF 20N BETWEEN 92.5W AND
94.5W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN N SWELL.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC COLD FRONT FROM 24.5N35W TO 20.5N48W. WITHIN 120 NM SE OF
FRONT E OF 38W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. N OF
28N E OF 46W NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT…EXCEPT NW TO W WINDS 20
TO 25 KT E OF 38W. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT WITH N SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF
24N E OF 53W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN N SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 21.5N35W TO 18.5N43W. N OF 19N
E OF 59W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 19 FT IN N TO NE
SWELL…HIGHEST NE PART.
.48 HOUR FORECAST STATIONARY FRONT FROM 21N35W TO 17.5N45W. N OF
12.5N E OF 65W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN N TO NE
SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Ogasawara Islands/ Japan/ West Pacific: Major Typhoon BUALOI 22W 23/1500Z 25.0°N 141.9°E, moving N 13kt. Wind 90kt, gust 130kt. 950hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 23 Oct 2019 1730Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon BUALOI (22W, 1921)

BUALOI is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (TSR UCL London data)

…TYPHOON BUALOI MOVING NORTH VERY NEAR IWO TO ISLAND… – NWS Guam

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 39 FEET – JTWC

logo

1921-00

 

 

 

 

TY 1921 (Bualoi)
Issued at 16:45 UTC, 23 October 2019

<Analysis at 16 UTC, 23 October>
Scale
Intensity Very strong
Center position N25°00′ (25.0°)
E141°55′ (141.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)
<Estimate for 17 UTC, 23 October>
Scale
Intensity Very strong
Center position N25°10′ (25.2°)
E141°55′ (141.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 23 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N26°10′ (26.2°)
E142°00′ (142.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 40 km (20 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 24 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N27°35′ (27.6°)
E142°20′ (142.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 24 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N28°55′ (28.9°)
E143°00′ (143.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 24 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N30°25′ (30.4°)
E144°10′ (144.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)

xxxx

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Typhoon 22W (Bualoi) Warning #19
Issued at 23/1500Z

 

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 24.0N 141.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 141.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 26.7N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 29.5N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 32.6N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 35.9N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 17 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 42.1N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 142.0E.
23OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 58 NM SOUTHEAST
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//
NNNN

GUAM

WFO Guam (US NWS)

 

 

182
WTPQ32 PGUM 231438
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Typhoon Bualoi (22W) Advisory Number 19
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP222019
100 AM ChST Thurs Oct 24 2019

…TYPHOON BUALOI MOVING NORTH VERY NEAR IWO TO ISLAND…

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
————————–
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
Location…24.7N 142.0E

About 470 miles north-northwest of Agrihan
About 705 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 800 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds…115 mph
Present movement…N…355 degrees at 14 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 AM ChST…1500 UTC…the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located
near Latitude 24.7 degrees North and Longitude 142.0 degrees East…
moving north at 14 mph. Bualoi will turn towards the north-northeast
today and maintain this heading through Saturday. Bualoi is expected
to gradually increase its forward speed as it passes well east of
Japan.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 115 mph. Bualoi is expected to
steadily weaken through Saturday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 35 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to 155
miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last advisory that will be issued by the National Weather
Service for Typhoon Bualoi.

$$

Bukunt


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 Oct, 2019 0:00 GMT

 

Typhoon BUALOI is currently located near 17.1 N 145.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 115 kts (132 mph). BUALOI is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. BUALOI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Northern Mariana Islands
        probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

NONE

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP32 RJTD 231500
WARNING 231500.
WARNING VALID 241500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 950 HPA
AT 24.8N 142.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 27.6N 142.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 30.4N 144.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Japan/ West Pacific: Typhoon NEOGURI 21W 20/1200Z 25.4°N 129.9°E, moving NNE 11kt. Wind 65kt, gust 95kt. 980hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Published 20 Oct 2019 1443Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon NEOGURI (1920, 21W)

NEOGURI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (TSR UCL London data)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 24 FEET – JTWC

logo

1920-00

Visible Loop

TY 1920 (Neoguri)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 20 October 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 20 October>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N25°25′ (25.4°)
E129°55′ (129.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 21 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N28°00′ (28.0°)
E131°30′ (131.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 21 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N31°00′ (31.0°)
E133°50′ (133.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N34°20′ (34.3°)
E138°20′ (138.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 220 km (120 NM)

xxxx

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Typhoon 21W (Neoguri) Warning #16
Issued at 20/0900Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 21W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
201200Z — NEAR 25.6N 130.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 035 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 130.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z — 27.8N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 30.0N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 32.6N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 34.9N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 38.7N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 130.4E.
20OCT19. TYPHOON 21W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z,
210900Z AND 211500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 20 Oct, 2019 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NEOGURI is currently located near 24.5 N 129.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). NEOGURI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NEOGURI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

NONE

 

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 201200
WARNING 201200.
WARNING VALID 211200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1920 NEOGURI (1920) 980 HPA
AT 25.4N 129.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 28.0N 131.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 31.0N 133.8E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 34.3N 138.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

 

 

 

United States/Gulf of Mexico: Potential Tropical Cyclone SIXTEEN (16L) 18/1500Z 25.9N 90.0W, moving NE ~18.8kt. Wind ~52.1kt 1001mb (NHC FL) – Updated 1520Z (GMT/UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone SIXTEEN (16L)

(Future Tropical Storm NESTOR)

…NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE SYSTEM STRONGER…
…DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

145015_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

000
WTNT31 KNHC 181449
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

…NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE SYSTEM STRONGER…
…DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC...INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…25.9N 90.0W
ABOUT 230 MI…365 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 395 MI…635 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 25.9 North, longitude 90.0 West. The system is moving
toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Sunday, followed by a turn toward
the east-northeast by early Monday. On the forecast track, the
system will approach the northern Gulf Coast later today and tonight
and move inland across portions of the southeastern United States on
Saturday and Sunday. The system is forecast to move offshore of the
coast of North Carolina by late Sunday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected later today, with
weakening forecast after the system moves inland.

The disturbance is expected to become a tropical or subtropical
storm later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km),
mainly to the northeast and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL…3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL…2 to 4 ft
Tampa Bay…1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area by later today and this evening, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible tonight and early Saturday
near the Florida Gulf Coast from the central panhandle to the
western peninsula.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 18 Oct, 2019 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm AL16 is currently located near 24.3 N 92.5 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). AL16 is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States
probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tallahassee (30.4 N, 84.3 W)
probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
Myrtle Beach (33.7 N, 79.1 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
Columbia (34.0 N, 81.0 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Mobile (30.7 N, 88.1 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Raleigh (35.8 N, 78.6 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Charlotte (35.2 N, 80.8 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours
Capeville (37.2 N, 75.9 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT21 KNHC 181446
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019
1500 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 90.0W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…….120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 90.0W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 91.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 27.8N 88.0W…TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…140NE 160SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.9N 85.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…100NE 150SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.2N 82.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.4N 78.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…130NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 37.0N 71.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 37.0N 69.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 90.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1…AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

FZNT01 KWBC 180933
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1030 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

METAREA IV BULLETIN WILL ONLY BE BROADCAST FROM THE INMARSAT
AOE SATELLITE. PLEASE ENSURE YOUR RECEIVER IS POINTED
CORRECTLY.

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
ATLANTIC ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.SHTML
(LOWERCASE EXCEPT CAPITAL A IN ATL).

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 18.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 19.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 20.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW INLAND NEAR 45N66W 987 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS FROM 36N TO 52N BETWEEN 51W AND 75W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 21 FT…HIGHEST NEAR 42N64W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N59W 992 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE
LOW TO 57N54W TO 55N49W TO 49N50W TO 40N47W. WITHIN 300 NM N AND
NE OF THE FRONT WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N58W 997 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW OF A FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM 57N61W TO 61N52W AND N OF 63N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. ALSO WITHIN 60 NM SE OF A
LINE FROM 60N43W TO 60N44W TO 60N47W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO
12 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 65N56W 1004 MB MOVING NW 20 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
120 NM NE AND 240 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO
16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS N OF AREA.

…GALE WARNING…
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 51N47W 996 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS NE
OF A FRONT FROM 59N41W TO THE LOW TO 35N47W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL SIXTEEN INLAND 34N81W 1004 MB.
OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 31N TO 35N W OF 74W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 90 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 61N41W TO
59N45W AREA OF N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.LOW E OF AREA NEAR 42N29W 1012 MB MOVING SE 30 KT. OVER
FORECAST WATERS FROM 38N TO 43N E OF 38W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 10
TO 12 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF A LINE FROM 56N40W TO 49N36W AREA OF
W TO NW WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.24 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF A LINE FROM 65N39W
TO 64N37W AREA OF W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.DENSE FOG. 24 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 55N61W TO
53N54W TO 43N50W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 45N TO 58N BETWEEN 41W AND 50W.

.HIGH 33N38W 1023 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 47N39W 1024 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF AREA.

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 34N66W 1019 MB.

.FORECASTER BELL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC FRI OCT 18.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT OCT 19.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN OCT 20.

.WARNINGS.

…GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN NEAR 24.3N 92.5W 1004 MB AT
0900 UTC OCT 18 MOVING NE OR 045 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100
NM E SEMICIRCLE. SEAS TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NW AND
150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SIXTEEN NEAR 29.0N 87.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM W SEMICIRCLE…120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 150 NM
SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM NW AND 180 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 30N
BETWEEN 82W AND 90W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL SIXTEEN N OF AREA
NEAR 33.5N 80.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE…100 NM NE
QUADRANT AND 150 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
210 NM SE SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. OVER FORECAST WATERS NW
OF LINE FROM 31N74W TO 27N80W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8
TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL SIXTEEN NEAR 37.0N
72.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL SIXTEEN NEAR 37.5N
69.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC 24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 22N E OF 40W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 9 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 26N TO 29N E OF 40W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED N AND NE SWELL.

.ATLC 24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N61W TO 24N69W. N OF
30N WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN
NW SWELL. N OF 30N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 8 FT IN N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N52W TO 24N59W. N OF 29.5N E
OF FRONT TO 48W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NW TO N
SWELL.

.ATLC 30 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N W OF 78W SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N W OF 74W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS TO 12 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Japan/ West Pacific: Typhoon HAGIBIS (20W) 12/0700Z 34.1°N 138.3°E, moving NNE 35 km/h (19 kt) Wind 45 m/s (85 kt) Gust 60 m/s (120 kt) 945hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 12 Oct 2019 0758Z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON HAGIBIS (1919, 20W)

 HAGIBIS is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. (TSR UCL London data)

JAPAN – Emergency Weather Warnings in effect

The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued heavy rain emergency warnings for many parts of central and eastern Japan. The warnings are at the highest level on the agency’s five-step scale. The affected areas are: Shizuoka Prefecture, Kanagawa Prefecture, Tokyo, Saitama Prefecture, Gunma Prefecture, Yamanashi Prefecture and Nagano Prefecture.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000ZIS 40 FEET – JTWC

 

 

JPWARN H12Emergency Weather Warnings in effect

The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued heavy rain emergency warnings for many parts of central and eastern Japan. The warnings are at the highest level on the agency’s five-step scale. The affected areas are: Shizuoka Prefecture, Kanagawa Prefecture, Tokyo, Saitama Prefecture, Gunma Prefecture, Yamanashi Prefecture and Nagano Prefecture.

 

VITAL INFORMATION FROM NHK JAPAN  https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/special/01/1919/

1919-00 JMA TRACK 0700Z

 

 

 

 

 

 

Himawari satellite (animation)  every 10 minutes / every 2.5 minutes

TY 1919 (Hagibis)
Issued at 07:40 UTC, 12 October 2019

<Analysis at 07 UTC, 12 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N34°05′ (34.1°)
E138°20′ (138.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 330 km (180 NM)
NW 260 km (140 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 650 km (350 NM)
W 560 km (300 NM)
<Estimate for 08 UTC, 12 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N34°25′ (34.4°)
E138°25′ (138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 330 km (180 NM)
NW 260 km (140 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 650 km (350 NM)
W 560 km (300 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 12 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°35′ (35.6°)
E139°35′ (139.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (24 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 40 km (20 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 12 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N37°55′ (37.9°)
E141°50′ (141.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55 km/h (31 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 13 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N39°35′ (39.6°)
E145°20′ (145.3°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 60 km/h (33 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 13 October>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N41°10′ (41.2°)
E150°00′ (150.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 75 km/h (40 kt)
Central pressure 984 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Oct, 2019 0:00 GMT

Typhoon HAGIBIS is currently located near 32.1 N 137.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). HAGIBIS is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. HAGIBIS is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

 

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Typhoon 20W (Hagibis) Warning #28
Issued at 12/0300Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
120000Z — NEAR 32.1N 137.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 010 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.1N 137.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 35.5N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 30 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 39.5N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 40 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 44.1N 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 33.0N 138.0E.
12OCT19. TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 224 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

DoctorR

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

NHK News https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/?utm_int=error_contents_news

NHK LIVE TV https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/live/

JAPAN: The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued heavy rain emergency warnings for many parts of central and eastern Japan. The warnings are at the highest level on the agency’s five-step scale. The affected areas are: Shizuoka Prefecture, Kanagawa Prefecture, Tokyo, Saitama Prefecture, Gunma Prefecture, Yamanashi Prefecture and Nagano Prefecture.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 120600
WARNING 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1919 HAGIBIS (1919) 945 HPA
AT 33.7N 138.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 37.9N 141.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 41.2N 150.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

 

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Ireland/ Northern Ireland/ UK/ Atlantic Ocean: Post-Tropical Cyclone LORENZO 02/1500Z 44.4N 25.8W, moving NE ~37.2kt. Wind 80mph. 962mb (NHC FL) – Updated 02 Oct 2019 2057Z (GMT/UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone LORENZO

…LORENZO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS
AND RAINFALL TO IRELAND AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM…

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.

IRELAND, NORTHERN IRELAND, UNITED KINGDOM, ISLE OF MAN, FRANCE, CHANNEL ISLANDS, NETHERLANDS, BELGIUM, GERMANY, and LUXEMBOURG BE AWARE!

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

 

000
WTNT33 KNHC 021435
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019

…LORENZO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS
AND RAINFALL TO IRELAND AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…44.4N 25.8W
ABOUT 945 MI…1525 KM WSW OF CORK IRELAND
ABOUT 970 MI…1565 KM WSW OF GALWAY IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 43 MPH…69 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…962 MB…28.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has
discontinued all warnings for the Azores.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Lorenzo was located near latitude 44.4 North, longitude 25.8 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 43 mph
(69 km/h). A continued fast motion toward the northeast is expected
through Thursday morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and
turn eastward and then southeastward Thursday night and Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of post-tropical Lorenzo will move
near western Ireland on Thursday, then pass over Ireland and England
on Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next day or so,
and the system is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when
it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening. A faster rate
of weakening is expected when the cyclone moves over Ireland and
England.

Lorenzo is a very large cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 390 miles (630 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
For hazard information for Lorenzo in Ireland and the United Kingdom
see products issued by Met Eireann and the United Kingdom Met
Office.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO
header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-
sea/high-seas-forecast.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website
of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at
http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Ireland

met-eireann-logo

National Warnings

Status Orange – Wind warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick
Southwesterly winds veering westerly will reach mean speeds 65 to 80km/h with gusts generally of 100 to 130km/h, higher in coastal regions.
Storm surges will produce coastal flooding and damage.

Valid: Thursday 03 October 2019 18:00 to Friday 04 October 2019 03:00

Status Yellow – Wind warning for Ireland
Southeasterly winds later veering southwesterly will reach mean speeds 50 to 65km/h with gusts to 100km/h resulting in some disruptive impacts.

Valid: Thursday 03 October 2019 09:00 to Friday 04 October 2019 06:00
Status: Yellow Rainfall warning for Ireland
Status Yellow – Rainfall warning for Ireland
Spells of heavy rain (in excess of 50mm in parts of the west and northwest) will result in some flooding.

Valid: Thursday 03 October 2019 09:00 to Friday 04 October 2019 09:00

Weather Advisory for Ireland

The effects of Storm Lorenzo will begin to be felt across Ireland from Thursday morning, easing Friday morning. The main impacts will include disruptive winds, falling trees and flooding.

In early October, trees are mostly in full leaf with a large surface area, so even moderate strength winds can bring down weakened trees and/or tree limbs. In addition, some trees may be compromised due to saturated soils at the moment, and with more rain forecast with Storm Lorenzo some disruption due to falling trees/branches is likely. Heavy rain, coupled with falling leaves may block drains and gullies, leading to surface flooding.

Coastal:
Storm Lorenzo will produce significant swell, high waves and sizeable storm surges. This will lead to wave overtopping, some coastal flooding and damage, especially along western and southern coasts.

Surface Flooding:
Saturated soils and the expected heavy/thundery rainfall may lead to surface flooding.

River:
River levels are currently elevated across the country and the rainfall may lead to river flooding, especially in parts of the midlands and west. River levels will continue to rise after Storm Lorenzo has passed.

Valid: Thursday 03 October 2019 09:00 to Friday 04 October 2019 09:00

United kingdom

UK Weather Warnings

Issued by the Met Office

  1. Yellow warning of wind

    Areas affected: Northern Ireland

    Starts: 15:00 BST on Thu 3 October

    Ends: 22:00 BST on Thu 3 October

    A spell of strong south-easterly winds may bring some transport disruption later on Thursday. – Some delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport are likely – Probably some bus and train services affected, with some journeys taking longer – Delays for high-sided vehicles on exposed routes and bridges likely – It’s likely that some coastal routes, sea fronts and coastal communities affected by spray and/or large waves – Some short term loss of power and other services is possible

    Issued at: 09:43 BST on Wed 2 October

  2. Yellow warning of wind

    Areas affected: South West England | Wales

    Starts: 04:00 BST on Fri 4 October

    Ends: 16:00 BST on Fri 4 October

    Strong winds may cause some transport disruption on Friday. – Some delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport are likely – Delays for high-sided vehicles on exposed routes and bridges likely – Some short term loss of power and other services is possible – It’s likely that some coastal routes, sea fronts and coastal communities are affected by spray and/or large waves

    Issued at: 09:57 BST on Wed 2 October

    Source: http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/satellite.php

    Source: https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/satellite_imagery.php


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 2 Oct, 2019 15:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Hurricane LORENZO is currently located near 44.4 N 25.8 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 70 kts (81 mph). LORENZO is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. LORENZO is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Ireland
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Northern Ireland
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Scotland
probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours
Wales
probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours
the Isle of Man
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
England
probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Bantry (51.7 N, 9.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Cork (51.9 N, 8.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
Wexford (52.3 N, 6.5 W)
probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours
Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours
Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours
Fishguard (51.9 N, 5.0 W)
probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours
Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)
probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
Lands End (50.1 N, 5.6 W)
probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.3 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
Cardiff (51.5 N, 3.2 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

UK Met Office

SurPress 1200 (UTC) on Wed 2 Oct 2019

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT23 KNHC 021435
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR THE SEA AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE AZORES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET
EIREANN…AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 25.8W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 37 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT…….100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW.
50 KT…….200NE 240SE 220SW 150NW.
34 KT…….300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 720SE 840SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 25.8W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 28.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 48.6N 20.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT…100NE 130SE 120SW 60NW.
50 KT…180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW.
34 KT…300NE 340SE 300SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 52.8N 14.3W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT…100NE 100SE 120SW 60NW.
50 KT…160NE 160SE 180SW 90NW.
34 KT…300NE 300SE 300SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 54.0N 9.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 100SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT…270NE 300SE 240SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 52.5N 3.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 0NE 0SE 140SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.4N 25.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE…UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

 

METAREA1 / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 022000

WONT54 EGRR 022000
SECURITE
STORM WARNING
AT 021200UTC, HURRICANE LORENZO 43 NORTH 28 WEST BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL LOW 53 NORTH 13 WEST 968 BY 031200UTC.
WINDS WILL REACH STORM FORCE 10 OR VIOLENT STORM FORCE 11
WITHIN 200 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW 57 NORTH 40
WEST 984 EXPECTED 58 NORTH 44 WEST 984 BY SAME TIME.
EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
STORM FORCE 10 AT TIMES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST OF EAST
NORTHERN SECTION, THE FAR NORTH OF WEST NORTHERN SECTION
AND THE WEST OF DENMARK STRAIT FROM 030300UTC UNTIL
031800UTC

AZORES

bulletins Marine
0000254301
FQAZ67 LPMG 020300
INSTITUTO PORTUGUES DO MAR E DA ATMOSFERA.
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR SHIPPING FOR THE ATLANTIC ZONES
LIMITED BY MERIDIANS 40W-22W AND BY PARALLELS 30N-45N.
I – TTT TTT TTT.
HURRICANE WARNING IN ZONES 3(ALTAIR) AND 5(ACORES).
GALE WARNING IN ZONES 30(MILNE) AND 31(MARSALA).
VERY POOR VIS WARNING IN ZONES 3(ALTAIR)E 5(ACORES.
HEAVY WAVES WARNING IN ZONES 3(ALTAIR), 5(ACORES),
7(IRVING), 30(MILNE) AND 31(MARSALA).
HURRICANE WARNING UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE COAST OF
FLORES AND CORVO ISLANDS FROM ACORES
IN ZONE 5(ACORES).
VIOLENT STORM WARNING UP TO 20 MILES FROM
THE COAST OF PICO, FAIAL, S.JORGE, GRACIOSA
AND TERCEIRA ISLANDS FROM ACORES IN ZONE 5(ACORES).
NEAR GALE WARNING UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE COAST
OF S.MIGUEL AND STA. MARIA ISLANDS FROM ACORES
IN ZONE 5(ACORES).
BAD VISIBILITY WARNING UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE COAST
OF FLORES AND CORVO ISLANDS FROM ACORES
IN ZONE 5(ACORES).
HEAVY WAVES WARNING UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE COAST
OF ALL ISLANDS FROM ACORES IN ZONE 5(ACORES).
II – WEATHER SUMMARY AT 020000UTC:
HIGH/ 1023HPA/ 35N15W/ EXP 030000UTC/ 1023HPA/ 35N14W.
HURRICANE LORENZO/ 960HPA/ 38N34W/ MOV NE 20KT/
LITTLE CHANGE.
W-FRONT/ 38N38W/ 42N36W/ 44N32W/ 46N29W/
MOV E/NE 20KT/ MOD TO STGR ACTIVITY.
III – FORECAST VALID TO 030600UTC:
3 – ALTAIR:
CYCLONIC 7 TO 12, BECMG W/NW 5 TO 7
IN W AND 7 TO 10 IN E, DECR TO 4 TO 6 LATER.
POOR TO VERY POOR VIS, BECMG GOOD TO MOD FM
LATE AFTERNOON.
S/SW WAVES 3 TO 5 M, TEMPO INCR TO 9 TO 14 M,
BECMG W WAVES 4 TO 5 M IN W AND 5 TO 7 M IN E LATER.
5 – ACORES:
S QUAD 7 TO 12, BECMG W QUAD 6 TO 8 DURING
AFTERNOON, DECR TO 2 TO 4 LATER.
GOOD TO MOD VIS, BEING POOR TO VERY POOR IN
NW UNTIL MIDDLE AFTERNOON.
SW WAVES 4 TO 8 M, INCR TO 9 TO 14 M, BEING W/SW
WAVES 2 TO 4 M IN E SOON, BECMG W/NW WAVES 5 TO 8 M
FM AFTERNOON, DECR TO 3 TO 5 M LATER.
7 – IRVING:
W/SW 5 TO 7, GRADUALLY DECR TO 2 TO 4
DURING AFTERNOON, BECMG VAR 2 TO 3 FM LATE
AFTERNOON.
GOOD TO MOD VIS.
W/SW WAVES 5 TO 7 M, BEING 2 TO 4 M IN E,
GRADUALLY BECMG W/NW WAVES 3 TO 4 M.
30 – MILNE:
NW 6 TO 8, TEMPO W 4 TO 6, BACK SW AND INCR
TO 6 TO 8 IN N.
GOOD TO MOD VIS.
W QUAD WAVES 4 TO 6 M, BEING 6 TO 9 M IN S,
GRADUALLY DECR TO 3 TO 4 M.
31 – MARSALA:
NW 4 TO 6, BEING 6 TO 8 IN NE, BECMG N/NW 3 TO 4,
BECMG VAR 2 TO 4 LATER.
GOOD TO MOD VIS.
NW WAVES 4 TO 6 M, BEING 6 TO 8 M IN NE,
GRADUALLY DECR TO 3 M.
FORECASTERS: LOURENCO/MEDEIROS/VIEIRA.
SOURCE: INSTITUTO PORTUGUES DO MAR E DA ATMOSFERA –
PORTUGAL.

Source: https://www.ipma.pt/en/maritima/boletins/

 

Ireland

Status Orange – Gale Warning

Southeast gales or strong gales on Thursday morning on all Irish Coastal Waters and on the Irish Sea, veering southwest and reaching storm force at times in the west.

Issued: Wednesday 02 October 2019 15:00

 

United Kingdom

 

Coastal Forecast

A 24 hour weather forecast for 24 UK coastal areas

Tide Tables

Tidal information supplied by the UK Hydrographic Office

Inshore Waters

There are strong wind warnings in 16 areas.

There is a gale warning in 1 area.

A ridge of high pressure will gradually build from the west tonight. The ridge gradually declining eastwards on Thursday as the remnant low of ex-hurricane Lorenzo moves in to the west of Ireland later in the day. The filling low is then expected to move steadily southeastwards into southwest England during Friday morning.

Shipping Forecast

There are gale warnings in 10 areas.

The general synopsis at midday

Hurricane lorenzo 550 miles west of Fitzroy becoming extratropical, expected Shannon 968 by midday tomorrow

Extended Outlook

The Extended Outlook aims to signpost expected hazards for the Cullercoats, Niton and Portpatrick areas for the three days beyond the 24 hour shipping forecast.

High Seas

There are storm warnings in 8 areas.

The general synopsis at 2 October 19:00 UTC

At 021200UTC, hurricane lorenzo 43 north 28 west becoming extratropical low 53 north 13 west 968 by 031200UTC. Low 57 north 40 west 984 expected 58 north 44 west 984 by same time. Low 46 north 58 west 999 expected 50 north 40 west 977 by that time. at 021200UTC, high 74 north 07 east 1027 expected 70 north 03 east 1027 by 031200UTC. High 41 north 12 west 1023 dissipating

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

SHANGHAI/ China/ South Korea/ Japan: Severe Tropical Storm MITAG 29/1500Z 30.2°N 122.5°E, moving N 11kt. Wind 60kt Gust 85kt 980 hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 01 Oct 2019 1825Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm MITAG (1918, 19W)

SHANGHAI China South Korea Japan be aware

JMA logo

1918-00-2

 

 

STS 1918 (Mitag)
Issued at 15:50 UTC, 1 October 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 1 October>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N30°10′ (30.2°)
E122°30′ (122.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 440 km (240 NM)
SW 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 2 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N32°35′ (32.6°)
E124°10′ (124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 2 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N34°40′ (34.7°)
E126°30′ (126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 3 October>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N37°50′ (37.8°)
E130°55′ (130.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 170 km (90 NM)

xxxx

CHINA

typhoon_logo_v2.0

Typhoon Message
20191002 01:12

National Meteorological Center No.1122
Analysis Time: Oct. 01th 17 UTC
Name of TC: MITAG
Num. of TC: 1918
Current Location: 30.4°N 122.6°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 25m/s(90km/h)
Central Pressure: 985hPa
Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 300km SE 260km SW 200km NW 280km
Forecast movement: next 24hrs MITAG will moving NNE at speed of 25km/h

TAIWAN

 

 

 

2019/10/01 12:00, Severe Tropical Storm MITAG (201918) , Center Location 29.60N 122.20E, Movement: NNE 22KM/HR. Minimum Pressure 975 hpa, Maximum Wind Speed 30m/s, Gust 38m/s, Radius of 15m/s 180km, Radius of 25m/s 60km.

Severe Tropical Storm MITAG (201918)
Analysis
1200UTC 01 October 2019
Center Location 29.60N 122.20E
Movement  N  18km/hr
Minimum Pressure  975 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 30 m/s
Gust 38 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 25m/s  60km

Forecast
12 hours valid at:
0000UTC 02 October 2019
Center Position 31.70N 123.40E
Vector to 12 HR Position
NNE 22 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  980 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 28 m/s
Gust 35 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 70% probability circle 50km
24 hours valid at:
1200UTC 02 October 2019
Center Position 33.90N 125.40E
Vector to 24 HR Position
NE 26 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  985 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 25 m/s
Gust 33 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 70% probability circle 90km
36 hours valid at:
0000UTC 03 October 2019
Center Position 36.10N 127.80E
Vector to 36 HR Position
NE 27 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  988 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 23 m/s
Gust 30 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 70% probability circle 130km
48 hours valid at:
1200UTC 03 October 2019
Center Position 37.10N 130.40E
Vector to 48 HR Position
ENE 21 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  992 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 23 m/s
Gust 30 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 70% probability circle 170km
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW AT 48 HOURS

xxxx

South Korea

Typhoon

Forecast Chart

No.18 MITAG

Issued at(KST) : 2019.10.02. 01:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2019.10.01. 15:00 Analysis 30.5 122.6 980 29 104 330
(WSW 270)
Normal Medium NNE 20
2019.10.01. 21:00 Forecast 31.4 123.3 980 29 104 320
(W 260)
Normal Medium NE 19 24
2019.10.02. 03:00 Forecast 32.4 124.2 980 29 104 300
(W 230)
Normal Medium NE 25 48
2019.10.02. 09:00 Forecast 33.5 125.2 985 27 97 280
(WNW 210)
Normal Small NE 25 72
2019.10.02. 15:00 Forecast 34.6 126.5 985 27 97 260
(NW 180)
Normal Small NE 28 110
2019.10.02. 21:00 Forecast 35.7 128.0 990 24 86 240
(NW 160)
Small NE 31 125
2019.10.03. 03:00 Forecast 36.8 129.9 992 23 83 220
(NW 140)
Small ENE 36 140
2019.10.03. 09:00 Forecast 37.7 132.4 994 21 76 200
(NW 120)
Small ENE 40 155
2019.10.03. 15:00 Forecast 38.1 135.2 994 21 76 E 42
rtko63_20191002010018_en

xxxx

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 1 Oct, 2019 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MITAG is currently located near 30.0 N 122.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). MITAG is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Japan
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Shanghai (31.2 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 96 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 96 hours
    Hangzhou (30.3 N, 120.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

DrR Mitagg

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

 

 

WTJP31 RJTD 011500
WARNING 011500.
WARNING VALID 021500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1918 MITAG (1918) 980 HPA
AT 30.2N 122.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 32.6N 124.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 34.7N 126.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Puerto Rico/ Virgin Islands/ Caribbean: Tropical Storm KAREN 24/2100Z 18.0N 65.8W, moving N ~07kt. Wind 45mph. 1005mb (NHC FL) – Updated 24 Sep 2019 2130Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm KAREN

…CENTER OF KAREN NOW NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO…

….the center of Karen will pass near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next few hours and
then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday…..

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

205143_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

 
000
WTNT32 KNHC 242048
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

…CENTER OF KAREN NOW NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO…
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC...INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.0N 65.8W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 70 MI…110 KM WNW OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 65.8 West. Karen is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast with some increase in forward speed is forecast
tonight, with this motion continuing through Wednesday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next few hours and
then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center. During the past few hours,
wind gusts of tropical-storm force have been reported in portions
of the Virgin Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands…3 to 6 inches, isolated 10
inches.

Leeward Islands…1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are
currently spreading across the warning area. Winds could be higher
on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated
terrain.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

PUERTO RICO

Weather Forecast Office
NWS San Juan, PR

 

 

Tropical Storm Warning
Flash Flood Watch
Hurricane Local Statement
Rip Current Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 24 Sep, 2019 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KAREN is currently located near 16.8 N 65.8 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). KAREN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Puerto Rico
        probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours
    the Virgin Islands
        probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)
        probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours
    St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)
        probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the British Virgin Islands
        probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)
        probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

DocR Karen

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT22 KNHC 242048
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO…INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 65.8W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 0NE 70SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 65.8W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 65.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.6N 65.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.9N 64.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 50NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.2N 64.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT… 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 25.9N 63.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT… 70NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.2N 61.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT… 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 26.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 65.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2…AT 25/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

FZNT02 KNHC 242056
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC TUE SEP 24.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC WED SEP 25.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC THU SEP 26.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM LORENZO NEAR 12.8N 31.0W 997 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP
24 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS…130 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 180 NM NE QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 13N TO 19N E
OF 39W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 13.2N 33.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 13.8N 35.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 190 NM NE QUADRANT…120 NM SE QUADRANT…70 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
300 NM N AND 270 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 35 FT. ELSEWHERE
OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 09N TO 20N E OF 40W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST WATERS S OF 22N E OF 31W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 15.6N 40.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 190 NM NE QUADRANT…120 NM SE QUADRANT…80 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
360 NM N AND 270 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 40 FT. ELSEWHERE
OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 390 NM N AND 300 NM S SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST WATERS
S OF 25N E OF 49W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 18.8N 42.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 21.9N 45.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 24.9N 45.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM JERRY NEAR 31.1N 69.0W 992 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 24
MOVING N OR 010 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS
55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…160 NM NE QUADRANT AND 150 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT…180 NM SE
QUADRANT…120 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 210 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 61W
AND 72W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER FORECAST
WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO
9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JERRY NEAR 32.9N 65.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 130 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER TO LIFT N OF AREA. OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 30N BETWEEN
60W AND 67W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY NEAR 34.4N 60.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW JERRY NEAR 34.5N
56.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW JERRY NEAR 33.0N
54.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

…ATLC AND CARIBBEAN TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 18.0N 65.8W 1005 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP
24 MOVING N OR 00 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM N
SEMICIRCLE…70 NM SE QUADRANT AND 20 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 60 NM SE QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM E AND 30 NM W
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. NUMEROUS SQUALLS
AND TSTMS N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 21.9N 64.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM NE QUADRANT…70 NM SE QUADRANT…30 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 0 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90
NM NE QUADRANT…60 NM SE QUADRANT AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH
SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM E AND 45 NM W SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 25.9N 63.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 70 NM E SEMICIRCLE…40 NM SW QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT
90 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 19 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM E
AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 27.2N 61.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 27.0N 62.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 26.5N 65.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

 

BERMUDA: Tropical Storm JERRY 23/1800Z 28.3N 68.2W, moving NNW ~5.9kt. Wind 65mph. 991mb (NHC FL) – Updated 23 Sep 2019 1853Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm JERRY

……JERRY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED……

….the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

144342_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

 

 

701
WTNT35 KNHC 231751
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
200 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

…JERRY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…28.3N 68.2W
ABOUT 345 MI…550 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB…29.27 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 68.2 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion should continue today. A turn to the north is
expected tonight followed by a turn to the northeast on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by late
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

BWS – Tropical Update Bulletin

TROPICAL STORM JERRY

IS A THREAT TO BERMUDA

Advisory #25A,
3 pm Mon, Sep 23, 2019 (1800 UTC Mon, Sep 23, 2019)
Refresh browser for latest image
KEY: Blue = 34-50 kts, Yellow = 50-64 kts, and Red = 64 kts and greater
Diagonal shading indicates fringe winds (34kts or greater surrounding the storm’s core)
Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs (3 days) is forecast to be 54 nm to the NW, 6 am Wed, Sep 25, 2019. However, this system may move closer to Bermuda after this time period depending upon its track.
Current Position: 28.3N 68.2W approx. 298 nm SSW of Bermuda
Recent Movement: NNW or 330 degrees at 6 kt
Central Pressure: 991 mb / 29.26 in
Max Winds: 55kt gusts 65kt
BWS Tropical Update Bulletins (TUBs), in line with NHC updates, are normally issued every 6 hours (03, 09, 15, and 21 UTC). When a tropical watch or warning is in effect for Bermuda, intermediate TUBs are issued at 3-hour intervals between the regular TUBs (06, 12, 18, and 00 UTC). Additionally, TUBs may be issued at any time due to significant changes in warnings or in the cyclone.

xxxx


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 23 Sep, 2019 15:00 GMT

 

Tropical Storm JERRY is currently located near 28.1 N 68.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). JERRY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bermuda
        probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

Not recent

 

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT25 KNHC 231440
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 68.0W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT…….110NE 150SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 68.0W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 67.9W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.2N 68.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT…120NE 150SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.4N 68.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…130NE 150SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.8N 67.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…140NE 140SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 33.3N 65.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 35.8N 58.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 120SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 37.0N 53.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 37.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 68.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5…AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Bermuda Marine Forecast

This forecast covers an area out to 25 nautical miles from the coastline
Issued at 12:30 pm – Monday, September 23, 2019
The next scheduled update will be issued at 4:30 pm

Marine Synopsis –

Tropical Storm Jerry, a threat to Bermuda, is expected to bring tropical storm force winds with possible hurricane force gusts to Bermuda from Tuesday evening. Ahead of Jerry, expect easterly winds to increase, clouds to thicken and rain with embedded showers as of this evening and isolated thunderstorms. Seas become rough to very rough and dangerous through Wednesday.

Today –

Winds east-southeasterly 15 to 20 knots…  Developing showers with fair to poor visibility… Seas increasing, inside the reef 1 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 5 to 8 ft…  Sunrise: 7:07 am.

Tonight –

Winds southeasterly 15 to 20 knots…  Widespread rain with embedded showers and risk of thunderstorms; fair to poor visibility… Seas increasing, inside the reef 2 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 6 to 10 ft…  Sunset: 7:14 pm.

Tuesday –

Winds south-southeasterly 20 to 30 knots, veering southerly by afternoon, increasing south-southwesterly 25 to 35 gusts to 45 knots in the evening, increasing 35 to 45 knots gusts 55 knots, possibly 65 knots in elevated and exposed areas overnight…  Showers and rain with fair to poor visibility, isolated thunderstorms with very poor visibility… Seas inside the reef 2 to 5 ft… Outside the reef 10 to 15 ft, increasing during the night inside the reef 3 to 6 ft… Outside the reef 15 to 20 ft…  Sunrise: 7:08 am; Sunset: 7:13 pm.

Wednesday –

Winds westerly 25 to 35 knots gusts to 45 knots, easing northwesterly 15 to 20 knots by afternoon, then 10 to 15 knots by evening, tending northerly overnight…  Scattered showers with fair to poor visibility easing towards evening… Seas inside the reef 2 to 4 ft… Outside the reef 15 to 8 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:09 am; Sunset: 7:12 pm.

Thursday –

Winds northerly 8 to 12 knots, easing north-northeasterly 5 to 10 knots overnight…  Seas inside the reef 1 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 6 to 9 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:09 am; Sunset: 7:10 pm.

Friday –

Winds northeasterly 5 to 10 knots…  Seas inside the reef 1 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 4 to 7 ft…  Sunrise: 7:10 am; Sunset: 7:09 pm.


Tides at St George’s (for Great Sound tides, add 10 minutes):
High: 4:32 pm this afternoon: 1.1m/3.6ft, 4:59 am Tuesday: 1m/3.3ft
Low: 11:02 pm tonight: 0.5m/1.6ft, 11:06 am Tuesday: 0.4m/1.3ft
Sea Surface Temperature: 28.5°C/83.3°F
Meteorologist: Gary Hall, Observer: Dana Masters


===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

Oman/ Arabian Sea: Severe Cyclonic Storm HIKAA 23/1500Z near 20.2N 62.9E, moving W 10kt (JTWC) – Published 23 Sep 2019 1600Z (GMT/UTC)

 Severe Cyclonic Storm/Tropical Cyclone HIKAA 03A (was 96A)

Cyclonic Storm ‘HIKAA’ intensified into a Severe Cyclonic Storm over northeast and adjoining northwest and central Arabian Sea….

…..It is very likely to move nearly westwards and cross Oman coast between latitude 19°N and 20°N during early hours of 25th September 2019 as a Cyclonic Storm….(RSMC New Delhi)

Expected to become a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by  24 Sep, 0:00 UTC (TSR UCL London data)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 17 FEET (JTWC)

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Tropical Cyclone 03A (Hikaa) Warning #04
Issued at 23/1500Z

io0319

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (HIKAA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (HIKAA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 20.2N 63.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 63.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 20.3N 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 20.1N 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 19.7N 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 19.4N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 62.9E.
23SEP19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (HIKAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265
NM EAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A MIDGET SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEVELOPING EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN A 231122Z SSMIS
91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THIS SSMIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A
75NM DIAMETER CONVECTIVE CORE, TYPICAL OF MIDGET SYSTEMS. TC 03A HAS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 30 KNOTS AT
22/12Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T3.5-4.0 (55-65 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS ROBUST
EQUATORWARD AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HINDERED BY EASTERLY
CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT (10-15 KNOTS) AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER A REGION OF WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD, STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
ARABIAN SEA. THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A VISIBLE EYE STRUCTURE,
COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK SUGGESTS A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ONCE OVER LAND NEAR TAU 30, TC HIKAA WILL RAPIDLY
ERODE DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF TERRAIN AND LACK OF
UNDERLYING OCEAN DRIVEN CONVECTION. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE ON THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, LENDING TO OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z,
240900Z AND 241500Z.//

NNNN

 

BULLETIN NO. : 08(ARB/02/2019)

TIME OF ISSUE: 1730HOURS IST

DATED: 23.09.2019

FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (FAX NO. 24643965/24699216/24623220)

Sub: Cyclonic Storm ‘HIKAA’ intensified into a Severe Cyclonic Storm over northeast and adjoining northwest and central Arabian Sea

The Cyclonic Storm ‘HIKAA’ over northeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian sea moved nearly westwards with a speed of 26kmph during past06 hours and intensified into a Severe Cyclonic Storm over northeast and adjoining northwest and central Arabian Sea and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 23rdSeptember,2019near latitude 20.2°N and longitude 64.2°E, about 640km west-southwestof Veraval (Gujarat), 600km southwestofKarachi(Pakistan) and 550km east-southeast of Masirah (Oman).

It is likely to intensify further during next 12hours and weaken gradually from 24thmorning. It is very likely to move nearly westwards and cross Oman coast between latitude 19°N and 20°N during early hours of 25th September 2019 as a Cyclonic Storm.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table: Date/Time(IST)Position(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)Category of cyclonic disturbance23.09.19/143020.2/64.290-100gusting to 110Severe Cyclonic Storm23.09.19/173020.2/63.7100-110gusting to 120Severe Cyclonic Storm23.09.19/233020.1/62.6110-120 gusting to 130Severe Cyclonic Storm24.09.19/053020.0/61.5100-110gusting to 120Severe Cyclonic Storm24.09.19/113019.9/60.490-100 gusting to 110Severe Cyclonic Storm24.09.19/233019.7/58.270-80 gusting to 90Cyclonic Storm25.09.19/113019.5/56.045-55 gusting to 65

Depression Warnings

:(i) Wind warningGalewind,speed reaching 90-100kmph gusting to 110kmphvery likely to prevail over northeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea, whichis likely to decrease thereafter India Meteorological DepartmentEarth System Science Organisation(Ministry of Earth Sciences)

Spatial rainfall distribution: Isolated: <25%, A few: 26-50%, Many: 51-75%, Most: 76-100%Rainfall amount (mm): Heavy rain: 64.5 –115.5, Very heavy rain: 115.6–204.4, Extremely heavy rain: 204.5 or more.becoming55-65kmph gusting to 75kmph by 24thmorning

.It is likely to be galewindspeed reaching 60-70kmph gusting to 80kmph,over northwest and adjoining westcentral Arabian Seaand is likely to increase gradually becoming110-120kmph gusting to 130kmph from 23rdmidnightfor subsequent 06hours.It will gradually decrease thereafterbecoming 70-80kmph gusting to 90kmph by 24thmidnightalong & off Oman coast.

(ii) Sea conditionThe sea condition is very likely to be very highover northeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea during next 12 hours and high to very rough during subsequent 12 hours.

Sea conditions will be very rough to high over northwest and adjoining westcentral Arabian Sea during next 06hours and very high during subsequent 12hours.It will become high to very rough and improve thereafter.

(iii)Fishermen Warning

The fishermen are advised not to venture into northeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea till 24thmorningand into northwest & adjoining westcentral Arabian Sea till 25thmorning.The next bulletinwill be issued at 2030hrs IST of 23rdSeptember,2019.

(Neetha K Gopal)Scientist-E, RSMC, New Delhi

OMAN

Alert(1) Weather over Arabian Sea Classification: Tropical Storm Issuing time: 3:00 PMLST Date: 23rdSeptember2019 Issue number: 3 Latest Weather charts and the analysis of the National Multi Hazards Early Warning Center indicate that the Tropical Storm ‘Hikaa’is located over Central Arabian Sea at longitude 64.1oE and latitude 20.3oNwithestimatedsurface wind speed around the centerbetween34and40knots (60to 75Km/hr). The storm is about 540km away from Masirah Island.The closest convective cloudsbandassociate with the system is about 320 km from Masirah Island. The tropical storm continues to movetowards the coasts of Al-Sharqiya and Al-Wusta Governorates. Numerical Weather predictions indicatepossible-gradual weakening of the stormwhile approaching the coastal areas of the Sultanate. The direct effect of the storm isexpected to reach Governorates of SouthernAl Sharqiya and Al Wusta by tomorrow evening (Tuesday 24thSeptember 2019) associated with isolated heavy rain with amount ranges between 30 and 60 millimeters andfresh winds ranges between 25 and 35 knots. Rough sea state is expected over the coastal areas of South Al-Sharqiya and Al-Wusta with maximum wave height between 3 and6meters with chances of sea water inundation over low level coastal areas. The sea state will be moderate over the rest of the coastal areas with maximum wave height between 1.5 and2.5 meters.The Public Authority for Civil Aviation advices the public to take precaution and stay away from low lying areas, avoiding crossing wadis. It also advices the fishermen and sea goers to avoid venture into the sea and follow latest and updated bulletin from the National Multi Hazard Early Warning Centre.Note: The advisory will beupdated every 24 hours.

Source: http://www.met.gov.om/opencms/export/sites/default/dgman/en/home/

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 23 Sep, 2019 6:00 GMT

 

Tropical Storm HIKAA is currently located near 20.2 N 64.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). HIKAA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Oman
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mursays (20.4 N, 58.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

DocR Hikka

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 230900

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 23 SEPTEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING (.)

THE CYCLONIC STORM HIKAA OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA MOVED NEARLY WESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 11 KTS DURING
PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 23 RD
SEPTEMBER, 2019 OVER THE SAME REGION NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 65.0 DEG E, ABOUT 560 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (42909),
GUJARAT (INDIA),560 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI (41780), PAKISTAN
AND 630 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (41288), OMAN. IT IS LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY FROM 24
TH MORNING. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY WESTWARDS AND CROSS
OMAN COAST BETWEEN LATITUDE 19 DEG N AND 20 DEG N AROUND 2100 UTC OF
24 TH SEPTEMBER 2019 AS A DEEP DEPRESSION (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KTS GUSTING TO
50 KTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS HIGHAROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/09/23 AT 18 UTC 20.1 N / 62.9 E MAX WIND 55 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/09/24 AT 06 UTC 19.9 N / 60.5 E MAX WIND 45 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 62 DEG E:SW/W-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE
E OF 76 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 62 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTEREDR RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 62 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 62 DEG E:SW-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E TO W OF 70 DEG E: ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA:SW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 4
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 66 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTEREDRA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 66 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 16 DEG N: CYCLONIC 45/55 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:SW-LY 15/25 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E OF 64
DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 17 DEG N AND E OF 60 DEG E:WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 17 DEG N AND E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 16 DEG N: 6.0-10.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 17 DEG N: CYCLONIC 20/30 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 16 DEG N TO W OF 64 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO W OF 64 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N: 3.5-5.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 88 DEG E SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
2)REST AREA: SE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: W OF 90 DEG E WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: W OF 90 DEG E 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 88 DEG E SE-LY 05/10 KTS
BEC S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC E-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF 5
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)W OF 92 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)W OF 92 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: S/SE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SE-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE W OF 90 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

OMAN MARINE FORECAST FOR COASTAL WATERS

ISSUED AT 1800 ON 23/09/2019

AND VALID FROM 23/1800 TO 24/0600 UTC

REGIONAL SYNOPSIS: THERMAL LOW AREA OVER ARABIAN PENINSULA.

WEATHER: CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE COASTAL

ARAS OF ARABIAN SEA WITH CHANCE OF ISOLATED RAIN

AND MAINLY CLEAR ALONG THE REST OF THE COASTAL

AREAS.

WARNING: NIL.

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS & VISIBILITY DETAILS FOLLOWS:

MUSANDAM WEST MUSANDAM EAST

WIND: VRB 02-06 KT WIND: SE 05-12 KT

SEA: SLT 0.75 M SEA: SLT 0.75 M

SWELL: W/SW 0.3 M SWELL: SE 0.3 M

VISIBILITY: 3 – 4 NM VISIBILITY: 3 – 4 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

BAYAH-MUSCAT MUSCAT VICINITY

WIND: VRB 03-07 KT WIND: VRB 02-06 KT

SEA: SLT 1.0 M SEA: SLT 0.75 M

SWELL: E 0.5 M SWELL: SE 0.5 M

VISIBILITY: 3 – 4 NM VISIBILITY: 3 – 4 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

MUSCAT-SUR SUR-MASIRAH

WIND: VRB 03-08 KT WIND: SW 07-16 KT

SEA: SLT 1.0 M SEA: SLT/MOD 1.5 M

SWELL: SE 1.0 KT SWELL: SE 1.0 M

VISIBILITY: 2 – 3 NM VISIBILITY: 2 – 3 NM

WEATHER: CHANCE OF CLOUDS ADVECTION.WEATHER: CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CHANCE OF RAIN.

MASIRAH-MADRAKAH MADRAKAH-ALJAZIR

WIND: SW 07-16 KT WIND: SW 10-15 KT

SEA: SLT/MOD 1.5 M SEA: SLT/MOD 1.5 M

SWELL: SW 1.0 M SWELL: SW 1.0 M

VISIBILITY: 2 – 3 NM VISIBILITY: 2 – 3 NM

WEATHER: CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CHANCE OF RAIN.WEATHER: CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CHANCE OF RAIN.

ALJAZIR-SADAH SADAH-DHALKUT

WIND: SW 10-20 KT WIND: SW 05-12 KT

SEA: SLT/MOD 1.5 M SEA: SLT/MOD 1.5 M

SWELL: SW 1.5 M SWELL: SW 1.5 M

VISIBILITY: 2 – 3 NM VISIBILITY: 2 – 3 NM

WEATHER: CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.WEATHER: CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS:

CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF ARABIAN SEA

WITH CHANCE OF RAIN OCCASIONALLY THUNDERSHOWERS OVER ALSHARQIYA AND

AL-WUSTA COASTS.

WARNING:

NIL.

PREPARED BY FORECASTER: AL-MAQBALI – FORECASTER TELEPHONE: 24354661

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

Japan/ South Korea: Severe Tropical Storm Tapah 18W 22/1100UTC 20:00JST 33.5°N 129.0°E, moving NNE 17kt. Wind 60kt/69mph, gust 85kt/97.8mph 975hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 22 Sep 2019 1300Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm TAPAH (1917 18W)

 

 

JMA logo

1917-00 TAPAH JMA

 

 

 

STS 1917 (Tapah)
Issued at 11:50 UTC, 22 September 2019

<Analysis at 11 UTC, 22 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N33°30′ (33.5°)
E129°00′ (129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 200 km (110 NM)
NW 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 650 km (350 NM)
NW 560 km (300 NM)
<Estimate for 12 UTC, 22 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N33°40′ (33.7°)
E129°10′ (129.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 200 km (110 NM)
NW 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 650 km (350 NM)
NW 560 km (300 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 22 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N34°30′ (34.5°)
E130°05′ (130.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 40 km/h (22 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 50 km (25 NM)
Storm warning area N 240 km (130 NM)
S 160 km (85 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 22 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N36°30′ (36.5°)
E132°25′ (132.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45 km/h (24 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area N 280 km (150 NM)
S 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 23 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N38°25′ (38.4°)
E134°50′ (134.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 50 km/h (26 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 100 km (55 NM)
Storm warning area N 280 km (150 NM)
S 260 km (140 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 23 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N40°05′ (40.1°)
E137°35′ (137.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 50 km/h (27 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 310 km (170 NM)

Typhoon

Forecast Chart

No.17 TAPAH

Issued at(KST) : 2019.09.22. 19:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2019.09.22. 09:00 Analysis 33.3 128.2 970 35 126 330
(W 280)
Strong Medium NE 39
2019.09.22. 15:00 Forecast 35.3 130.4 975 32 115 310
(WNW 260)
Normal Medium NE 50 24
2019.09.22. 21:00 Forecast 37.4 133.2 975 32 115 290
(WNW 220)
Normal Small NE 57 48
2019.09.23. 03:00 Forecast 39.5 136.4 980 29 104 270
(WNW 200)
Normal Small ENE 61 72
2019.09.23. 09:00 Forecast 41.7 139.9 985 27 97 ENE 63


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 Sep, 2019 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm TAPAH is currently located near 32.7 N 127.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). TAPAH is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP21 RJTD 221200
WARNING 221200.
WARNING VALID 231200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1917 TAPAH (1917) 980 HPA
AT 33.6N 129.4E SEA AROUND TUSHIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 37.5N 133.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 40.9N 139.3E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mexico: Hurricane LORENA CAT1 21/1800UTC/1200MDT 26.1N 110.8W, moving N ~10.2ktkt. Wind 75mph. 986mb (NHC FL) – Updated 21 Sep 2019 1915Z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE LORENA 15E CAT1

……HURRICANE LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA…
…AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENROUTE TO CHECK LORENA………

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San
Evaristo.
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of
Lorena.

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

 

 

 

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 211734
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
1200 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

…HURRICANE LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA…
…AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENROUTE TO CHECK LORENA…

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…26.1N 110.8W
ABOUT 128 MI…205 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM ENE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San
Evaristo.
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of
Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was
located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 110.8 West. Lorena is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general motion
toward the north is expected during the next day or so. On the
forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move across the
Gulf of California today, then approach the northwestern coast of
mainland Mexico tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast before the center reaches
the coast of mainland Mexico early Sunday. An Air Force
reconnaissance plane will check Lorena shortly.

Lorena is a small cyclone and the hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storms conditions are expected to spread northward
across the Gulf or California today. Hurricane conditions are
possible and tropical storm conditions are expected within the
hurricane watch and tropical storm warning areas by tonight.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Baja California Sur…3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts
around 8 inches.

Sonora…3 to 6 inches.

Northwest Sinaloa…2 to 4 inches.

This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

MEXICO

Aviso Meteorológico No. 31-19 Lugar Ciudad de México Fecha21 de sept.de 2019 11:00h

Lorenase localizó sobre el Golfo de California,a 90 km al este-sureste de Loreto, Baja California Sur

Se mantienen las lluvias torrenciales en regiones de Sonora, intensas en áreas de Baja California Sur, Chihuahua y el norte de Sinaloa y puntuales muy fuertes en Durango.A las 10:00 horas, tiempo del centro de México, el huracán Lorena, categoría 1 en la escala de Saffir Simpson, se localizósobre el Golfo de California,a 90kilómetros (km) al este-sureste de Loreto,Baja California Sur,y a 270 kmal sur de Guaymas, Sonora, con vientos máximos sostenidos de 120 km/h, rachas de 150km/h y desplazamiento al norte a 19km/h.Durante las próximas horas persistirán las rachas de viento superiores a 80 km/h con oleaje de 3 a 5 metros (m) y posibilidad de trombas en las costas de Baja California Sur, Sonora y Sinaloa, lluvias torrenciales en regiones de Sonora, intensas en áreas de Baja California Sur, Chihuahua y el norte de Sinaloa así como puntuales muy fuertes en Durango. Se actualizazona de vigilancia por efectos de huracán en Sonora, desde Huatabampito hasta Puerto Libertad, y por efectos de tormenta tropical en Baja California Sur, desde Bahía San Juan Bautista hasta San Evaristo.Se recomienda a la población que se encuentra en zonas de influencia del sistema y a la navegación marítima, extremar precauciones y atender las recomendaciones de las autoridades del Sistema Nacional de Protección Civil, ya que, debido a las lluvias, podrían registrarse deslaves, deslizamientos de laderas, desbordamientos de ríos y arroyos o afectaciones en caminos y tramos carreteros, así como inundaciones en zonas bajas y saturación de drenajes en sitios urbanos.Se exhorta a la población a mantenerse informada sobre las condiciones meteorológicas mediante las páginas de internet http://www.gob.mx/conaguay https://smn.conagua.gob.mx, así como en las cuentas de Twitter @conagua_mx y @conagua_clima y de Facebook http://www.facebook.com/conaguamx.

Lorena located on the Gulf of California, 90 km east-southeast of Loreto, Baja California Sur

Torrential rains are maintained in regions of Sonora, intense in areas of Baja California Sur, Chihuahua and northern Sinaloa and very strong points in Durango. At 10:00 a.m., Central Mexico time, Hurricane Lorena, category 1 on the Saffir Simpson scale, was located on the Gulf of California, 90 kilometers (km) east-southeast of Loreto, Baja California South, and 270 kmal south of Guaymas, Sonora, with maximum sustained winds of 120 km / h, gusts of 150km / h and displacement to the north at 19km / h. Wind gusts of over 80 km / h will persist for the next few hours. waves of 3 to 5 meters (m) and possibility of thrombus on the coasts of Baja California Sur, Sonora and Sinaloa, torrential rains in regions of Sonora, intense in areas of Baja California Sur, Chihuahua and northern Sinaloa as well as very specific points strong in Durango Surveillance area is updated for hurricane effects in Sonora, from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad, and for tropical storm effects in Baja California Sur, from San Juan Bautista Bay to San Evaristo. It is recommended to the population that is in areas of influence of the maritime navigation system, take precautions and comply with the recommendations of the authorities of the National Civil Protection System, since, due to the rains, landslides, landslides, river and stream overflows or road and highway sections may be affected , as well as floods in low areas and saturation of drains in urban sites. The population is urged to keep informed about the weather conditions through the web pages http://www.gob.mx/conaguay https://smn.conagua.gob.mx , as well as on Twitter accounts @c onagua_mx and @conagua_clima and Facebook http://www.facebook.com/conaguamx

Source: https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 21 Sep, 2019 9:00 GMT

Hurricane LORENA is currently located near 24.6 N 110.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). LORENA is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. LORENA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% currently
        probability for TS is 80% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% currently
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Rosarito (26.5 N, 111.7 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours
    Guaymas (28.0 N, 111.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours
    La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

NONE

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
FZPN03 KNHC 211523
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT SEP 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN SEP 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON SEP 23.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
HURRICANE LORENA NEAR 25.6N 110.6W 986 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 21
MOVING N OR 350 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT
GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM NE AND
SW QUADRANTS…20 NM NW QUADRANT AND 40 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE…AND 45 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 120
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT FROM 23N TO 26.5N.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LORENA NEAR 27.0N 111.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LORENA INLAND NEAR 29.0N 111.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NE QUADRANT…50 NM SE QUADRANT…30 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 20 NM NW QUADRANT. OVER FORECAST WATERS SEAS TO
12 FT WITHIN 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT FROM 28N TO 30N.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA INLAND NEAR 31.0N
112.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM MARIO NEAR 18.9N 110.5W 998 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP
21 MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
150 NM NE QUADRANT…120 NM SE QUADRANT…75 NM SW QUADRANT…
AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150
NM S AND 90 NM N SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
IN MIXED SWELL FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W…AND FROM
08N TO 25N W OF 110W TO A LINE FROM 08N120W TO 16N114W TO
22N120W TO 25N120W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MARIO NEAR 21.1N 112.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 0 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM N AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS
TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 108W AND
115W. FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 103 AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO NEAR 22.4N 113.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARIO NEAR 23.6N
113.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 60 NM
NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARIO NEAR 25.2N
114.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 18.4N 131.1W 997 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 21
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS
65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT
40 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM NE AND SW
QUADRANTS…90 NM NW QUADRANT AND 60 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO
18 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 13N
TO 23N BETWEEN 128W AND 138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 17.3N 133.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 40 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 60 NM N AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 16
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 14N TO 22N W
OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 16.0N 135.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 17.7N 137.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 18.9N 138.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO NEAR 18.5N 139.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W…AND FROM 03N TO 07N
BETWEEN 92W AND 102W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W…FROM 04N
TO 11N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W…AND FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 100W
AND 107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 90W AND 104W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.

.S OF 01S BETWEEN 102W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9
FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 01S BETWEEN 110W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21…

.HURRICANE LORENA…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 24.5N TO
26.5N BETWEEN 109W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM
23N TO 27N BETWEEN 107W AND 112W.

.TROPICAL STORM MARIO…NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 110.5W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 113W AND 115W.

.TROPICAL STORM KIKO…NUMEROUS MODERATE FROM 18N TO 19.5N
BETWEEN 130W AND 131.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 19.5N
BETWEEN 129W AND 130W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 11N87W TO
12N94W TO 11N102W THEN RESUMES W OF T.S. KIKO FROM 15N132W TO
12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 06N TO 07.5N BETWEEN 92W AND
96W…FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W…AND FROM 14N TO
15.5N BETWEEN 132W AND 138W.

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Bermuda: Major Hurricane HUMBERTO CAT3 18/1500Z near 32.2N 68.1W, ENE ~14kt wind 120mph 952mb (NHC FL) – Updated 18 Sep 2019 1700Z (GMT/UTC)

MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO CAT3 (09L)

BERMUDA BEWARE!

….…..AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS HUMBERTO
STRONGER AS THE MAJOR HURRICANE THREATENS BERMUDA…
…LARGE HURRICANE-FORCE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND…….

….. the
core of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and north
of Bermuda later tonight…..NHC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

 Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

144021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

 

 

000
WTNT34 KNHC 181438
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

…AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS HUMBERTO
STRONGER AS THE MAJOR HURRICANE THREATENS BERMUDA…
…LARGE HURRICANE-FORCE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…32.2N 68.1W
ABOUT 195 MI…310 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…952 MB…28.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 32.2 North, longitude 68.1 West. Humberto is now moving
toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general
motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected
through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-
northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast track, the
core of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and north
of Bermuda later tonight.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with
higher gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a
powerful hurricane through early Thursday while it passes close to
Bermuda. A steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday.

Humberto is a large hurricane and continues to grow in size.
Hurricane-force winds now extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
195 miles (315 km) based on reports from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft.

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 952 mb (28.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda this
evening and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds are
expected to reach tropical-storm strength later this afternoon,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with
maximum amounts of 6 inches expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda today. Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding. Wave heights exceeding
30 feet have already been reported by an offshore NOAA buoy.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water
levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
southern coast of Bermuda.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

BWS – Tropical Update Bulletin

HURRICANE HUMBERTO

IS A THREAT TO BERMUDA

Advisory #24,
12 pm Wed, Sep 18, 2019 (1500 UTC Wed, Sep 18, 2019)
Refresh browser for latest image
KEY: Blue = 34-50 kts, Yellow = 50-64 kts, and Red = 64 kts and greater
Diagonal shading indicates fringe winds (34kts or greater surrounding the storm’s core)
Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs (3 days) is forecast to be 78 nm to the NW, 8 pm Wed, Sep 18, 2019. However, this system may move closer to Bermuda after this time period depending upon its track.
Current Position: 32.2N 68.1W approx. 168 nm W of Bermuda
Recent Movement: ENE or 65 degrees at 14 kt
Central Pressure: 952 mb / 28.11 in
Max Winds: 105kt gusts 130kt
BWS Tropical Update Bulletins (TUBs), in line with NHC updates, are normally issued every 6 hours (03, 09, 15, and 21 UTC). When a tropical watch or warning is in effect for Bermuda, intermediate TUBs are issued at 3-hour intervals between the regular TUBs (06, 12, 18, and 00 UTC). Additionally, TUBs may be issued at any time due to significant changes in warnings or in the cyclone.

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 18 Sep, 2019 15:00 GMT

 

Intense Hurricane HUMBERTO is currently located near 32.2 N 68.1 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 105 kts (121 mph). HUMBERTO is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. HUMBERTO is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bermuda
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

DocR Bermuda H

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT24 KNHC 181438
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BERMUDA

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 68.1W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT……. 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT…….100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT…….150NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 300SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 68.1W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 68.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 33.5N 65.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT…100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT…150NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 36.1N 62.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT… 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT…100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT…170NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.6N 60.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT…100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT…200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.7N 59.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT…100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT…200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 43.3N 50.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 47.2N 33.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 54.0N 20.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 68.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4…AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Bermuda Marine Forecast

This forecast covers an area out to 25 nautical miles from the coastline
Issued at 11:30 am – Wednesday, September 18, 2019
The next scheduled update will be issued at 4:30 pm

Marine Synopsis –

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect – Category Three Hurricane Humberto is a threat to Bermuda and hurricane force winds are now expected to reach the island this evening. Expect showers, squalls & patchy heavy rain, as well as gusty thunderstorms. Southerly tropical storm force winds begin this afternoon ramping up to 50 knots by evening, increasing to hurricane force for a time this evening.Dangerous seas are also set to develop today. Winds veer west to northwest as Humberto moves away.

Today –

Winds southerly 15 to 25 knots, increasing 35 to 45 knots in the afternoon and 40 to 50 knots by early evening…  Widespread showers and rain with fair to poor visibility, and thunderstorms with very poor visibility. Seas rising rapidly from midday. Strongest winds in the northern marine area… Seas increasing, inside the reef 3 to 8 ft… Outside the reef 14 to 25 ft…  Sunrise: 7:04 am.

Tonight –

Winds southwesterly 50 to 65 knots gusts to 80 knots, easing westerly 30 to 40 knots gusts 55 knots overnight…  Widespread showers and rain with fair to poor visibility, and thunderstorms with very poor visibility. Seas rising rapidly. Strongest winds in the northern marine area… Seas increasing, inside the reef 3 to 8 ft… Outside the reef 25 to 37 ft…  Sunset: 7:21 pm.

Thursday –

Winds westerly 20 to 30 knots gusts to 40 knots, veering and easing northerly 15 to 20 knots by midday, easing 10 to 15 knots in the evening, veering northerly overnight…  Widespread showers easing to isolated during the morning with fair to poor visibility. Seas falling rapidly… Seas inside the reef 3 to 8 ft… Outside the reef 40 to 20 ft inside the reef 2 to 6 ft… Outside the reef 20 to 10 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:05 am; Sunset: 7:20 pm.

Friday –

Winds northerly 10 to 15 knots…  Scattered showers, risk thunder with fair to poor visibility… Seas inside the reef 2 to 4 ft… Outside the reef 15 to 10 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:05 am; Sunset: 7:18 pm.

Saturday –

Winds northerly 10 to 15 knots…  Seas inside the reef 2 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 7 to 10 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:06 am; Sunset: 7:17 pm.

Sunday –

Winds northerly 5 to 8 knots, veering northeasterly by afternoon and easterly overnight…  Seas inside the reef 1 to 2 ft… Outside the reef 4 to 6 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:07 am; Sunset: 7:16 pm.


Tides at St George’s (for Great Sound tides, add 10 minutes):
High: 12:02 pm this afternoon: 1.1m/3.6ft, 12:15 am tonight: 1m/3.3ft
Low: 5:58 pm this afternoon: 0.4m/1.3ft, 6:08 am Thursday: 0.4m/1.3ft
Sea Surface Temperature: 29.7°C/85.5°F
Meteorologist: Kimberley Zuill, Observer: Ashby Bradshaw

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Typhoon TAXAI (=CAT3 SSHWS) 08/1500Z 34.7°N 139.3°E, moving NNE 20km/h (12 kt) 955hPa wind 45m/s (85 kt) gust 60 m/s (120 kt)(RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 08 Sep 2019 1636Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon FAXAI 1915 14W

FAXAI is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (TSR UCL London data)

TOKYO BEWARE!

  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 45 FEET.- JTWC

JMA logo

 

 

 

 

TY 1915 (Faxai)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 8 September 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 8 September>
Scale
Intensity Very strong
Center position N34°40′ (34.7°)
E139°20′ (139.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 90 km (50 NM)
NW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 220 km (120 NM)
W 170 km (90 NM)
<Estimate for 16 UTC, 8 September>
Scale
Intensity Very strong
Center position N34°55′ (34.9°)
E139°25′ (139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 90 km (50 NM)
NW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 220 km (120 NM)
W 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 8 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°55′ (35.9°)
E140°00′ (140.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 40 km (20 NM)
Storm warning area SE 130 km (70 NM)
NW 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 9 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N37°00′ (37.0°)
E141°20′ (141.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area SE 150 km (80 NM)
NW 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 9 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N38°00′ (38.0°)
E142°55′ (142.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area SE 160 km (85 NM)
NW 120 km (65 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 9 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N38°50′ (38.8°)
E145°00′ (145.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

xxxx

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Sep, 2019 12:00 GMT

Typhoon FAXAI is currently located near 34.0 N 139.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 100 kts (115 mph). FAXAI is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. FAXAI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Typhoon 14W (Faxai) Warning #28
Issued at 08/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 34.0N 139.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 005 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.0N 139.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 36.5N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 38.6N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 21 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 40.6N 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 23 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 42.4N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 34.6N 139.6E.
08SEP19. TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 83 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z
AND 091500Z.//
NNNN

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

None

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP31 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1915 FAXAI (1915) 955 HPA
AT 34.7N 139.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 37.0N 141.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 38.8N 145.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

North Korea/ South Korea/ China: Typhoon Lingling 070900Z position near 39.3N 125.9E, moving N 19kt (JTWC) – Updated 07 Sep 2019 0935Z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON LINGLING 1913 15W

LINGLING is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Typhoon 15W (Lingling) Warning #22 Final Warning
Issued at 07/0900Z

wp1519

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
070600Z — NEAR 37.9N 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 005 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.9N 125.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z — 43.4N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 30 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 48.3N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 39.3N 125.9E.
07SEP19. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF YONGSAN AIN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. A 070521Z GMI 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING (TCB) WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED
LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION OVER LAND WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON
AN UNOFFICIAL PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5/4.0 (55/65 KNOTS), WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TCB STRUCTURE. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE
UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE MIDLATITUDE JET.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

JMA logo

 

 

TY 1913 (Lingling)
Issued at 07:00 UTC, 7 September 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 7 September>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N37°55′ (37.9°)
E125°20′ (125.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 560 km (300 NM)
W 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 7 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N44°20′ (44.3°)
E128°20′ (128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 65 km/h (34 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 8 September>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N48°40′ (48.7°)
E132°30′ (132.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 984 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

xxxx

South Korea

No.13 LINGLING

Issued at(KST) : 2019.09.07. 16:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2019.09.07. 06:00 Analysis 38.0 125.5 970 35 126 300
(S 210)
Strong Medium N 49
2019.09.07. 12:00 Forecast 40.9 127.1 975 32 115 280
(WNW 200)
Normal Small NNE 57 24
2019.09.07. 18:00 Forecast 43.7 129.1 980 29 104 250
(NW 170)
Normal Small NE 60 48
2019.09.08. 00:00 Forecast 46.4 132.1 985 24 86 NE 63
xxxx

Yellow Warning of Typhoon

06-09-2019Source: National Meteorological Center

 

The National Meteorological Center continued to release yellow warning of typhoon at 6:00 a.m. on September 6.

This year’s 13th typhoon Lingling is predicted to move northward direction at the speed of 25 km/h and enter southern Huanghai Sea in the night of September 6. It will make landfall from western Republic of Korea to southeastern Liaoning from the night of September 7 to the dawn of September 8 (severe tropical storm, scale 10-11, 25-30m/s).

From September 6 to 7, sea areas around Diaoyu Islands, East China Sea, and central Huanghai Sea will be exposed to scale 8-11 gale. Coastal regions of Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Hangzhou Bay, Yangtze River Estuary, and coastal regions of Taiwan Island will be exposed to scale 6-7 gale.

Taiwan Island, northeastern Zhejiang, and eastern Shandong Peninsula will be subject to moderate to heavy rain. There is rainstorm (100-120mm) in some regions. (Sep. 6)

Editor: Liu Shuqiao

CMA launched level four emergency response to address the impacts of typhoon Lingling

06-09-2019Source: China Meteorological Administration
The National Meteorological Center continued to issue yellow warning of typhoon on September 6. In order to address impacts incurred by typhoon Lingling, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) activated a level four emergency response at 8:30 a.m. on September 6. It is required that the relevant meteorological sectors attached to CMA enter the emergency position immediately and put corresponding meteorological services in place. The potential affected areas such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Liaoning, and Heilongjiang are expected to sustain or adjust the emergency state according to local realities. (Sep.6)

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 Sep, 2019 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Typhoon LINGLING is currently located near 37.9 N 125.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). LINGLING is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. LINGLING is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    North Korea
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    South Korea
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Sariwon (38.5 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    P’yongyang (39.0 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kanggye (41.0 N, 126.6 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Sinuiju (40.1 N, 124.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Hamhung (39.9 N, 127.6 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Ch’ongjin (41.8 N, 129.8 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Vladivostok (43.1 N, 132.0 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Khabarovsk (48.4 N, 135.1 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

None

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP22 RJTD 070600
WARNING 070600.
WARNING VALID 080600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1913 LINGLING (1913) 970 HPA
AT 37.9N 125.3E KOREA MOVING NORTH 21 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 44.3N 128.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 48.7N 132.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

 

Bahamas/ US (Florida)/ Caribbean: Catastrophic HURRICANE DORIAN CAT5 01/1200Z 26.5N 76.5W, moving W ~07kt Wind 160mph 927mb (NHC FL) – Updated 01 Sep 2019 1245Z (GMT/UTC)

CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DORIAN

Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

…EYEWALL OF NOW CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DORIAN ABOUT TO
HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS WITH DEVASTATING WINDS…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
EXPECTED……NHC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach

Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches or warnings
may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida today – NHC FL

 

… EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN WILL HIT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA TODAY ….

…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED…

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES: NORTH ELEUTHERA, ABACO, GRAND BAHAMA, BIMINI, THE BERRY ISLANDS AND NEW PROVIDENCE. – Bahamas Met

 

SEE COMMENTS AT BOTTOM OF PAGE FOR UPDATES

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE FL

115245_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

 

Satellite

000
WTNT35 KNHC 011152
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

…EYEWALL OF NOW CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DORIAN ABOUT TO
HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS WITH DEVASTATING WINDS…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
EXPECTED…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…26.5N 76.5W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 225 MI…360 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…160 MPH…260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…927 MB…27.37 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches or warnings
may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian
was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 76.5 West. Dorian
is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower
westward motion should occur for the next day or two, followed by a
gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of
extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian should be moving over Great
Abaco soon, and continue near or over Grand Bahama Island later
tonight and Monday. The hurricane should move closer to the Florida
east coast late Monday through Tuesday night.

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane which just penetrated
the eye of Dorian indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is
now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is
expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km). Elbow Cay in the Abaco Islands just reported winds
of 35 mph (56 km/h)

The minimum central pressure just measured by an Air Force plane was
927 mb (27.37 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Devastating hurricane conditions are expected in the Abacos
Islands very soon and these conditions will spread across Grand
Bahama Island later today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas…12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula
through Georgia…2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

 

xxxx

BAHAMAS

BAHAMAS PUBLIC FORECAST

ALERT #28 ON HURRICANE DORIAN ISSUED BY THE BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY SUNDAY, 1ST SEPTEMBER 2019 AT 6AM EDT.
… EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN WILL HIT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA TODAY ….

…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED…

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES: NORTH ELEUTHERA, ABACO, GRAND BAHAMA, BIMINI, THE BERRY ISLANDS AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT THE MENTIONED ISLANDS WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH ANDROS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT THE MENTIONED ISLAND WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 5AM EDT, THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 76.0 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 72 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARSH HARBOUR, ABACO; 74 MILES NORTHEAST OF NORTH ELEUTHERA; 115 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF EAST END, GRAND BAHAMA; AND 125 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEW PROVIDENCE.
HURRICANE DORIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT NEAR 8 MPH AND A SLOWER WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. ON THIS TRACK, THE CORE OF DORIAN SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MILES PER HOUR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORIAN IS A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY, BUT DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE FO