Atlantic Ocean/ Caribbean: MARIA heading toward Turks And Caicos. Hvy rainfall Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic -Updated 21 Sep 2017 1700z (GMT/UTC)

CAT3 HURRICANE MARIA

MARIA HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS…
…HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUES IN PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC – NHC

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands: **CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES AS MARIA MOVES AWAY**

(See Update in comments at bottom of page)

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Andres/Boca Chica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Central Bahamas

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

145441_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind NHC Adv 22.png

avn_lalo-animated3

jua_n0r_legend_0

JUA Radar

145441_earliest_reasonable_toa_34 Adv 22

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

…MARIA HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS…
…HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUES IN PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…20.2N 69.1W
ABOUT 105 MI…175 KM ENE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 155 MI…255 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…960 MB…28.35 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning along the southern coast of the Dominican
Republic west of Andres/Boca Chica. The Hurricane Watch from Isla
Saona to Cabo Engano has also been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Andres/Boca Chica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Maria was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 69.1 West. Maria is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast early Friday, with that motion
continuing through early Saturday. On the forecast track, Maria’s
eye will continue to pass offshore of the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic today, and then move near or just east of the
Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas tonight and on
Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible during the
next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 960 mb (28.35
inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions continue across
portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas later today, with hurricane conditions
expected tonight or early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the central Bahamas beginning late Friday.

Strong gusty winds are still possible today over portions of Puerto
Rico, especially in heavier rainbands that are moving over the
island.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the
Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern
coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal
tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Saturday:

Puerto Rico…additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated maximum storm total
amounts 35 inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands…additional 2 to 4 inches.
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and
Mayaguana in southeast Bahamas…8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Inagua Islands, Crooked Island, and rest of southeast Bahamas…4 to
8 inches.
Northern Haiti…2 to 4 inches.

Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will
reach the remainder of the Bahamas today and tonight and should
reach portions of the United States southeastern coast on Friday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

LOCAL STATEMENT

000
WTCA82 TJSJ 210352 CCA
HLSSJU
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-211145-

Hurricane Maria Local Statement Advisory Number 20…Corrected
National Weather Service San Juan PR AL152017
1144 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

This product covers Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

**CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES AS MARIA MOVES AWAY**

NEW INFORMATION
—————

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
– The Hurricane Warning has been cancelled for Puerto Rico

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
– Flash Flood Watches and Warnings continue across parts of Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

* STORM INFORMATION:
– About 130 miles west-northwest of San Juan PR or about 70 miles
northwest of Aguadilla PR
– 19.2N 67.9W
– Storm Intensity 110 mph
– Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
——————

Hurricane Maria was located over the waters northwest of Puerto Rico
and moving slowly away tonight. Tropical storm force winds have
largely ended, though occasional gusts above tropical storm force
will be possible overnight, particularly at higher elevations.
Rainfall amounts have ranged between 15 and 25 inches with 40 inches
or greater in isolated spots. Catastrophic flash flooding continues
across much of Puerto Rico with some rivers and tributaries
exceeding record levels. Travel is strongly discouraged tonight as
rushing flood waters continue covering many roads. Some bridges and
roadways have likely completely washed away and it will be very
difficult to see this at night when driving.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
—————–

* FLOODING RAIN:
Additional impacts from flooding rain are still a concern. Remain
well guarded against life threatening flood waters having further
impacts of devastating potential across Puerto Rico and extensive
potential in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* WIND:
Little to no additional impacts are anticipated at this time across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* SURGE:
Any remaining storm surge flooding will subside overnight across
coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
———————————-

* EVACUATIONS:
Do not return to evacuated areas until it is safe. Listen for the
all-clear signal from local authorities.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

If your home or shelter was damaged, be alert to the smell of natural
gas leaks and cautious around exposed electrical wiring, broken
glass, jagged metal and wood, and protruding nails and screws.

Those who rode out the storm away from their home or business are
likely anxious to return. However, allow some time for work crews to
make a clear path for emergency vehicles. Downed power lines and
trees may be blocking roads and flood waters may have washed out or
overspread sections of key travel routes. Traffic lights may also be
out of service.

When inspecting damage, use flashlights rather than candles or flamed
lighting. Be aware of sparks that can ignite leaking gas or other
flammables.

If using a generator, avoid carbon monoxide poisoning by following
instructions by the manufacturer. Make sure that the generator is run
in a well ventilated space.

Problems with sewer backups can further contaminate standing flood
waters. Keep children away. Also, listen for boil water alerts
relative to communities whose tap water may have become non-potable.

Do not wade through flood waters. Dangerous wildlife, contaminants,
and active power lines are all potential threats.

NEXT UPDATE
———–

As it pertains to this event…this will be the last local statement
issued by the National Weather Service in San Juan PR regarding the
effects of tropical cyclone hazards upon the area.

$$

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 21 Sep, 2017 15:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane MARIA is currently located near 20.2 N 69.1 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 100 kts (115 mph). MARIA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. MARIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Dominican Republic
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the Turks & Caicos Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Bahamas
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Santo Domingo (18.7 N, 69.9 W)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)
        probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Haiti
        probability for TS is 50% within 9 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Salvador (24.0 N, 74.5 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201715N MARIA TSR1 21

201715N_0 MARIA TSR2 21

 

 

Other

 

at201715_5day M WUND

at201715_sat M WUND

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

 

Category 5 Hurricane Maria Hits Dominica

Maria Headed for Catastrophic Hit on Puerto Rico, St. Croix

Maria Slams St. Croix, Rips Across Puerto Rico

Maria Back Over Water After Devastating Hit to Puerto Rico

750px-caribbean_general_map

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 MARIA MARITIME 21

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 210841

WTNT25 KNHC 211447
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WEST OF ANDRES/BOCA CHICA. THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM ISLA
SAONA TO CABO ENGANO HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO ENGANO TO ANDRES/BOCA CHICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA… GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 69.1W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT……. 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT……. 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT…….130NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 75SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 69.1W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 68.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 69.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT…GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT…130NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.2N 70.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT…GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT…140NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.6N 71.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT… 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT…150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.1N 71.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT…GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT… 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT…160NE 160SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.2N 72.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT…GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT…100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT…170NE 170SE 140SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 30.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 33.0N 70.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 69.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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Japan/ Russia: Tropical Storm Talim 20W 17/1500Z update from JTWC and others – Updated 17 Sep 2017 1547z (GMT/UTC)

 Tropical Storm Talim 20W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET – JTWC

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 20W (Talim) Warning #36
Issued at 17/1500Z

 

 

wp2017 TALIM JTWC 17

20W_171200sair TALIM 17

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
171200Z — NEAR 34.1N 134.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 050 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 134.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 39.5N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
390 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 29 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 44.8N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 35.5N 135.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

1718-00 TALIM JMA 17

JP WARNING

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

rb_lalo-animated3

STS 1718 (Talim)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 17 September 2017

<Analysis at 14 UTC, 17 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N35°20′ (35.3°)
E135°40′ (135.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 190 km (100 NM)
NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)
<Estimate for 15 UTC, 17 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N35°40′ (35.7°)
E136°05′ (136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 190 km (100 NM)
NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N40°40′ (40.7°)
E139°25′ (139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 60 km/h (33 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area NE 410 km (220 NM)
SW 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N45°50′ (45.8°)
E142°35′ (142.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 50 km/h (28 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area E 600 km (325 NM)
W 370 km (200 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Sep, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm TALIM is currently located near 34.1 N 134.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). TALIM is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk (47.0 N, 142.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201720W TALIM TSR1 17

201720W_0 TALIM TSR2 17

Russia

17.9.2017 16:00 | Day 18 September with saving until the end of the day in the Kaliningrad region, heavy rain is expected to wind up to 25 m/s.

17.9.2017 12:00 | On the night of September 18 in the Orenburg region expected freezing on soil (temperature to -2°).

16.9.2017 22:00 | Day 17 September and the first half of the night 18 September in the Irkutsk region precipitation (rain, wet snow), wind 18-23 m/s, storms, the establishment of a temporary snow cover.

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in the South Kuril and Kuril regions expected strong winds up to 35-40 m/s (hurricane), strong, sometimes very heavy rain (15-49 mm, 50 mm or more for 12:00).

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in southern Sakhalin and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk is expected to be very heavy rain (30 mm for 12:00), wind 25-30 m/s, gusts of 33-38 m/s (hurricane); 19 September in rivers podjomy water levels on the sharp 0.5 m -1.0.

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 and 19 September night in the East of Primorsky Krai expected places heavy rain (15-45 mm for 12:00 or less), wind 15-20 m/s, on the coast with gusts up to 28 m/s.

“In Monday, when Typhoon Talim will move along the western coast of Japan on water area of the sea of Japan, it will have an impact on the weather, the eastern half of the Primorski Krai. Rains of varying intensity, on the East coast of possible heavy rains and strong winds to the 20-25 m/s.

Ex-Talim will bring on Sakhalin and southern Kuril Islands rain and wind up to 15-20 m/s In the zone Tuesday spread to Northern Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. In Thursday afternoon in the southern area of the wind will die down, the Northern Islands will still windy.” – Russian National Forecaster (link)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

JP MARITIME 17

JP WX MAP 17

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1718 TALIM (1718) 975 HPA
AT 34.4N 134.6E SHIKOKU MOVING NORTHEAST 26 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 40.7N 139.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 45.8N 142.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm Lee 16/1500Z 112.5N 33.1W, moving W ~10.2kt NHC FL – Published 16 Sep 2017 1540z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Lee

DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LEE – NHC FL

144929_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind LEE NHC

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

…DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LEE…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.5N 33.1W
ABOUT 655 MI…1055 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 33.1 West. Lee is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward or
west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to are near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

Other

at201714_5day LEEat201714_sat LEE

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 LEE

METAREA2 / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 1515

WONT50 LFPW 161515
SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
WARNING NR 384, SATURDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2017 AT 1510 UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS, SATURDAY 16 AT 12 UTC.
TROPICAL STORM LEE 1007 655 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 12.5N 33.1W AT 16/15 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 10 KT, EXPECTED
12.5N 33.1W AT 17/00 UTC, THEN 12.4N 34.1W AT 17/12 UTC.

WEST OF SIERRA LEONE.
CONTINUING TO 17/15 UTC AT LEAST.
CYCLONIC INCREASING 8 OR 9. SEVERE GUSTS.

BT

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.
*

 

 

 

 

Rodrigues /Mauritius /LaReunion /Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone #Eleven (11S) 082100Z position nr 15.2S 69.8E, moving W 05kt (JTWC) – Published 08 Mar 2017 2100z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Eleven (11S)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 15.2S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 70.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 15.3S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 15.8S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 16.9S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 18.7S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 21.8S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 14 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 24.8S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 28.2S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 69.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR)
AND A 081732Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. THE PREVIOUSLY FRAGMENTED CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND
CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE LLCC OVER THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 081732Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWING THE TIGHT LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM OF T2.5-3.0 FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH A SMALL BUT DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER
THE SYSTEM, ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). SSTS ALSO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION WITH TEMPS
OBSERVED NEAR 30C. SINCE THE SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AT
THIS TIME, THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE IS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTH, STEERING TC 11S SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE TIME
BEING. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF TC 09S ARE CURRENTLY
PROVIDING SOME PRESSURE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
DISPLACING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OFF THE LLCC, AND
LIMITING POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. AS UPPER-
LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS REESTABLISHED BEYOND TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY AT
TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC11S WILL
TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, THEN TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWEST AS IT
STRENGTHENS AND THE STEERING SHIFTS TO A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE
TO THE EAST. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FOREWORD MOTION AFTER
TAU 36 DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE SYSTEM TO THE EAST.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE TRACK, WITH SOME INITIAL DISAGREEMENT OF
THE TIMING OF THE TURN SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS 14 FEET. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

=============================================================================

WTIO31 FMEE 081914
RSMC / CENTER OF LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONES
ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING CYCLONE (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) NEWSLETTER
0.A NEWSLETTER: 9/7/20162017
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7
2.A POSITION HAS 1800 UTC ON 03/08/2017:
WITHIN A RADIUS OF 20 MINUTES AROUND THE POINT 15.2 S / 70.0 E
(SIXTY TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DEGREES ZERO‘S)
DISPLACEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A WIND MAX (MEDIUM/10 MIN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RVM): VOID
6.A WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM) EXTENSION:
28 KT ONLY: 0 SE: 200 SO: 190 NO.: 0
7.A SIDE/DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION PORTRAIT OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION: AVERAGE
1.B FORECASTS:
12 H: 03/09/2017 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 68.3 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
24: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 67.8 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
36H: 10 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 67.7 E WIND MAX = 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 10 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 19.5 S / 66.1 E WIND MAX = 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 11 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 63.1 E WIND MAX = 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 11 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.1 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
2.B TREND FURTHER:
96H: 12 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 25.4 S / 54.7 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
120H: 13 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 29.4 S / 54.4 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, POSTTROPICALE DEPRESSION
2.C COMMENTS:
T = 2.5, CI = 2.5
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS GENERALLY IMPROVING BUT IT IS
A VERY RECENT. THE N18 1416Z WATCH AGAIN PASS A CENTER EXPOSES A
WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, AND IT IS SINCE SHORTLY BEFORE 17Z ONLY ONE
BURST OF CONVECTION TAKES PLACE VERY NEAR THE CENTER. THE ASCAT PASS OF THE
EVENING CONFIRMS INTENSITY ANALYZED. IF THIS TREND IS CONSOLIDATING
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SMALL
WINDOW OF FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY
THE MINIMUM SE MOVED SLOWLY IN THE WEST BRANCH UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW/MEDIUM RIDGE
TROPOSPHERE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH EAST OF THE BASIN. TOMORROW NIGHT, THE
MODELS AVAILABLE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO PREDICT A TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTH BUT WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES, WHICH CAUSES A
UNCERTAINTY AVERAGE WELL REPORTED BY THE DISPERSION OF THE FORECAST
OVERVIEW OF THE CEP. THIS WEEKEND, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER HIS
PATH ON THE SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHWEST AND
SPEED UP BYPASSING THIS RIDGE.
THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM MAKES IT PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE HAS ITS
ENVIRONMENT, INCLUDING ALTITUDE, WHICH MAKES FORECASTING
HARD INTENSITY. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT, THE ASCENT OF A THALWEG
ALTITUDE FROM THE MIDDLE LATITUDES (WAVE SURGE OF)
ROSSBY) CAUSES THE APPEARANCE OF A SECTOR MODERATE CONSTRAINT
NORTH. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL DATA, MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICK OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALLOW IT TO LIMIT ITS
WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVOURABLE, WITHOUT WEAKENING
INFLUENCE ON BAROCLINIC NET DYNAMICS OF ALTITUDE. IN THE PROCESS OF
WEEKEND WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE THALWEG OF ALTITUDE AND MAINTAINING
A GREAT DIFFERENCE POLAR, THE SYSTEM COULD BE

REINTENSIFIER.

WTIO31 FMEE 081914
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/7/20162017
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 7
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/03/2017 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 70.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 4 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 200 SO: 190 NO: 0
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/03/2017 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
24H: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
36H: 10/03/2017 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
48H: 10/03/2017 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
60H: 11/03/2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
72H: 11/03/2017 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2017 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
120H: 13/03/2017 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=2.5 CI=2.5
LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE EST GLOBALEMENT EN AMELIORATION MAIS C’EST
TRES RECENT. LA PASS N18 DE 1416Z MONTRE ENCORE UN CENTRE EXPOSE A
L’OUEST DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE, ET C’EST DEPUIS PEU AVANT 17Z QU’UN
BURST DE CONVECTION A LIEU TRES PRES DU CENTRE. LA PASS ASCAT DE LA
SOIREE CONFIRME L’INTENSITE ANALYSEE. SI CETTE TENDANCE SE CONSOLIDE
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT PROFITER DE LA PETITE
FENETRE DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES POUR S’INTENSIFIER PLUS
SIGNIFICATIVEMENT
LE MINIMUM SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L’OUEST SOUS
L’INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSES/MOYENNES
TROPOSPHERE SITUEE SUR LA PARTIE SUD-EST DU BASSIN. DEMAIN SOIR, LES
MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT EN BON ACCORD POUR PREVOIR UN VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD MAIS AVEC DES DIFFERENCES DE TIMING, CE QUI PROVOQUE UNE
INCERTITUDE MOYENNE BIEN BALISEE PAR LA DISPERSION DE LA PREVISION
D’ENSEMBLE DU CEP. CE WEEK-END, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA
TRAJECTOIRE SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET
ACCELERER EN CONTOURNANT CETTE DORSALE.
LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME LE REND PARTICULIEREMENT SENSIBLE A SON
ENVIRONNEMENT, NOTAMMENT EN ALTITUDE, CE QUI REND LA PREVISION
D’INTENSITE DIFFICILE. A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR, LA REMONTEE D’UN THALWEG
D’ALTITUDE DEPUIS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES (DEFERLEMENT D’ONDE DE
ROSSBY) PROVOQUE L’APPARITION D’UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE SECTEUR
NORD. SELON LES DERNIERES DONNEES MODELES, LE DEPLACEMENT
RELATIVEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE LIMITER SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT AU SEIN DE CET ENVIRONNEMENT MOINS FAVORABLE, SANS
INFLUENCE BAROCLINE NETTE DE LA DYNAMIQUE D’ALTITUDE. EN COURS DE
WEEK-END, AVEC LA DISSIPATION DU THALWEG D’ALTITUDE ET LE MAINTIEN
D’UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE POLAIRE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT SE
REINTENSIFIER.

===========================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 24/1 March 08 2017 – 18:39:19 UTC
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 24/2 March 08 2017 – 18:35:46 UTC
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 24/3 March 08 2017 – 12:32:19 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST March 08 2017 – 17:44:07 UTC
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST March 08 2017 – 12:44:02 UTC

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Madagascar:Ex Tropical Cyclone Enawo 09S 081800Z Position nr 17.9S 46.6E, moving SW 08 Kt (RSMC LaReunion) – Updated 08 Mar 2017 1956z (GMT/UTC)

==

Ex Tropical Cyclone Enawo 09S

WTIO31 FMEE 081910 CCA
FIX *.
RSMC / CENTER OF LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONES
ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING CYCLONE (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) NEWSLETTER
0.A NEWSLETTER: 6/26/20162017
1.A DEPRESSION ON EARTH 6 (EX-ENAWO)
2.A POSITION HAS 1800 UTC ON 03/08/2017:
WITHIN A RADIUS OF 30 MINUTES AROUND THE POINT 17.9 S / 46.6 E
(SEVENTEEN NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTYSIX DEGREES SIX IS)
DISPLACEMENT: SOUTHWEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NOTHINGNESS
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NILE
5.A WIND MAX (MEDIUM/10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RVM): VOID
6.A WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM) EXTENSION:
28 KT DON’T: 430 SE: 440 SO: NO. 0: 0
34 KT IS: 0 SE: 350 SO: NO. 0: 0
7.A SIDE/DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR: 1002 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION PORTRAIT OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION: AVERAGE
1.B FORECASTS:
12 H: 03/09/2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 46.3 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, DEPRESSION ON EARTH
24: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 46.5 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, DEPRESSION ON EARTH
36H: 10 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 47.7 E WIND MAX = 045 KT, POSTTROPICALE DEPRESSION
48H: 10 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 30.9 S / 49.2 E WIND MAX = 045 KT, POSTTROPICALE DEPRESSION
60H: 11 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 34.5 S / 47.8 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICAL
72H: 11 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 37.4 S / 44.2 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICAL
2.B TREND FURTHER:
96H: 12 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 46.0 S / 46.6 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C COMMENTS:
FIX ON THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WHICH IS NOT FILLED (SYSTEM ON)
EARTH)
EX-ENAWO CONTINUES TO SINK INTO THE MALAGASY LAND IN
DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH A TENDENCY TO THE DOWNTURN
ON THE LAST 6 HOURS. HE SHOULD DIVE MORE FRANKLY IN
HEADING SOUTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ACCELERANT.
CONFIGURING SATELLITE REMAINS THE SAME, WITH THE PRESENCE OF
ACTIVE CONVERGENCE LINES (ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL AND THE)
COAST NORTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR AT THE ELECTRICAL LEVEL) SE FAR FORMING
CENTER IN PART ON SEA IN THE NORTH-WEST QUADRANTS AND SOUTHEAST
THE TRAFFIC.
IN THE COMING DAYS, THE DISPLACEMENT CONTINUES ON A
TRAJECTORY THAT SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME MERIDIAN WITH THE WEAKENING
THE RIDGE PRESENT ON AVERAGE TROPOSPHERE ON MADAGASCAR. THE
ORDER OF THE WIND BLOW STRONG WINDS SHOULD REMAIN PRESENT THROUGHOUT
THE COAST IS MALAGASY DURING THIS DESCENT, IS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST
MALAGASY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW NIGHT OR NEXT. AT THE
RE-RELEASE AT SEA (THURSDAY NIGHT (A FRIDAY), THE BEGINNING OF A TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICAL SHOULD START QUICKLY ENOUGH IN INTERACTION
WITH A WATER-COURSE OF ARRIVING BY THE SOUTHWEST INTO A ALTITUDE
VERY CISAILLEE ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL OCEANIC
DECREASING QUICKLY.
WTIO31 FMEE 081910 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/6/20162017
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 6 (EX-ENAWO)
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/03/2017 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.9 S / 46.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : NIL
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 440 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SO: 0 NO: 0
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1002 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/03/2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
24H: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
36H: 10/03/2017 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
48H: 10/03/2017 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
60H: 11/03/2017 06 UTC: 34.5 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 11/03/2017 18 UTC: 37.4 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2017 18 UTC: 46.0 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, SE DISSIPANT
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
CORRECTIF SUR LA PRESSION CENTRALE QUI EST NON RENSEIGNEE (SYSTEME SUR
TERRE)
EX-ENAWO CONTINUE DE S’ENFONCER DANS LES TERRES MALGACHES EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST AVEC UNE TENDANCE AU RALENTISSEMENT
SUR LES DERNIERES 6 HEURES. IL DEVRAIT PLONGER PLUS FRANCHEMENT EN
DIRECTION DU SUD DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES EN ACCELERANT.
LA CONFIGURATION SATELLITAIRE RESTE IDENTIQUE, AVEC LA PRESENCE DE
LIGNES DE CONVERGENCE ACTIVES (SURTOUT SUR LE NORD DU CANAL ET LA
COTE NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR AU NIVEAU ELECTRIQUE) SE FORMANT LOIN
DU CENTRE EN PARTIE SUR MER DANS LES QUADRANTS NORD-OUEST ET SUD-EST
DE LA CIRCULATION.
DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS, LE DEPLACEMENT SE POURSUIT SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE QUI DEVRAIT VITE DEVENIR MERIDIENNE AVEC L’AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DE LA DORSALE PRESENTE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SUR MADAGASCAR. DES
VENTS FORTS DE L’ORDRE DU COUP DE VENT DEVRAIT RESTER PRESENT LE LONG
DES COTES EST MALGACHES LORS DE CETTE DESCENTE, S’ETENDANT AU SUD-EST
MALGACHE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE DEMAIN OU NUIT SUIVANTE. A LA
RESSORTIE EN MER (NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI), LE DEBUT D’UNE TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICALE DEVRAIT S’AMORCER ASSEZ RAPIDEMENT EN INTERACTION
AVEC UN TALWEG D’ALTITUDE ARRIVANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT TRES CISAILLEE ET AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
DIMINUANT RAPIDEMENT.
SWI$06_20162017 REUNION 08

==========================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

Not available at time of posting

=========================================================

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 09S (Enawo) Warning #10 Final Warning
Issued at 07/2100Z

sh0917 JTWC 08

09S_071800sair

WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071800Z — NEAR 15.2S 49.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 49.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 16.5S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 18.1S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 21.1S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 49.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 459 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING CONTINUING TO SPIRAL INTO A DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER INLAND
OVER MADAGASCAR. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY
ERODE DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. CONCURRENTLY, TC 09S WILL
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE IMPACTS OF THE
TERRAIN. THE REMNANT VORTEX SIGNATURE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE PASSING SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

===============================================================================

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO24 FMEE 081837 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2017
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 08/03/2017 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ENAWO) NIL
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 46.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 240 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 60
NM OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN 18S AND 20S.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 110 NM OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN 17S AND 21S.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2017/03/09 AT 06 UTC:
21.4 S / 46.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2017/03/09 AT 18 UTC:
25.0 S / 46.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CORRECTIVE: CENTRAL PRESSURE UNKNOWN (OVER-LAND DEPRESSION)
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE SPREADING SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF
MADAGASCAR.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Angus the first named storm of autumn 2016 — Official blog of the Met Office news team

The Met Office has announced the first named storm of autumn 2016: Storm Angus. Storm Angus is expected to sweep through south-eastern England bringing some very strong south-westerly winds and heavy rain to affected parts through Sunday morning. Looking at the development of the low-pressure system, on Friday morning the Met Office issued a Yellow […]

via Angus the first named storm of autumn 2016 — Official blog of the Met Office news team

What is a ‘Spanish Plume’?

Official blog of the Met Office news team

There has been a lot of talk about warm weather expected across parts of England again this weekend.  Temperatures are forecast to reach the mid to high 20’s C on Friday and into the weekend, bringing the risk of thundery showers for some.  It has been reported that a ‘Spanish Plume’ is responsible for this. Here, Ewen McCallum, Met Office Chief Meteorologist explains what a ‘Spanish Plume’ is?

‘Spanish Plume’ is actually a rather catchy name for a rather complex meteorological phenomenon which leads to warm conditions and heavy showers or thunderstorms over parts of the UK and north-west Europe.

As the name suggests it is a plume of very warm air that pushes north from the Spanish plateau and reaches the British Isles on a southerly airflow.  Of course over the UK we are normally affected by much cooler Atlantic air as cold fronts encroach from the west. Now…

View original post 50 more words

India/ Bangladesh: Depression over NE Bay of Bengal & coast areas of Bangladesh & W Bengal may become Deep Depression in 24 hrs (RSMC New Delhi) – Published 270715 1035z (GMT/UTC)

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre - Tropical Cyclones, India Meteorological Department - Government of IndiaRegional Specialized Meteorological Centre
REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE

TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 27072015

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN
SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 27072015
BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 27 July, 2015
THE DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING COASTAL AREAS OF
BANGLADESH & WEST BENGAL
REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST 15HRS AND LAY CENTRED AT
0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 27 JULY 2015 NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 90.2 EAST, CLOSE TO WEST OF KHEPUPARA
(41960). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN STATIONARY FOR SOME MORE TIME AND MAY CONCENTRATE INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION

DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS CI. 1.5  PATTERN IS SHEAR PATTERN
.
DISTANCE BETWEEN CENTRE AND CLOUD MASS IS NEARLY 100 KMS.
ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVEC
TION OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL
.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 994 HPA.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 27TH JULY 2015.
(DUTY OFFICER)
RSMC, NEW DELHI

mapimage

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abiosair.jpg

ABIO10 PGTW 270000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/270000Z-271800ZJUL2015//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.3N 90.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 69 NM WEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE BANGLADESH COASTLINE, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE BAY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE 850 MB
VORTICITY SIGNATURE IS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC. A 261533Z ASCAT
PARTIAL PASS REVEALED 30 KNOT WINDS UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE;
HOWEVER, FUTHER ORGANIZATION IS HAMPERED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (20-30 KNOTS) IN ADDITION TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKING VERY SLOWLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE INTO INDIA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IF THE DISTURBANCE WERE TO TRACK JUST SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH,
THE WARM WATERS OF THE BAY AND GOOD OUTFLOW MAY ALLOW FOR RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A MEDIUM//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

FQIN01 DEMS 270900
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 27 JULY 2015
—————————————————-
PART I:- NO STORM WARNING

PART II:-THE DEPRESSION OVER NE-BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJ.
COASTAL AREAS OF BAGLA DESH AND WEST BENGAL MOVED
SLIGHTLY WEST -WARDS AND LAY CENTERED NEAR LAT 22.0 DEG N/
LONG 90.2 DEG E(.)SYSTEM WOULD REMAIN PRACTICALY STATIONRY
FOR SOME MORE TIMES AND MAY CONCENTRATE INTO A DEEP
DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HRS.(.)

AN OFFSHORE TROUGH AT MSL RUNS FROM KARNATAKA COAST TO
KERALA COAST PERSISTS(.)

WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)
—————————————————
A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 60 DEG E:-S/SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E:-S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:- 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)1-2 M(.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 60 DEG E:-S/SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E:-S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:- 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)1-2 M(.)

A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 70 DEG E:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 70 DEG E:WSW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)2-3 M(.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 70 DEG E:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 70 DEG E:WSW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)2-3 M(.)

A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-SSW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-SSW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS:-
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
SW/S-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO THE N OF 18 DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M(.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

METAREA VIII_N

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

El Niño and its impact on global weather

Official blog of the Met Office news team

Forecast centres around the world have now declared that an El Niño, the most powerful fluctuation in our climate system, has begun in the tropical Pacific.

For more than a year, scientists have been talking of an increased risk of the start of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific.

Scientists have been watching closely because it can change the odds of floods, droughts, heat waves and cold seasons for different regions around the world and can even raise global temperatures.

Early signs of an El Niño last year failed to fully develop and atmospheric conditions remained close to neutral into the start of 2015.

Now, however, observations from the tropical Pacific show that we have moved to weak El Niño  conditions for the first time in five years.

While it is still too early to determine with confidence how strong this El Niño  might be forecast models from…

View original post 291 more words

Europe: Severe weather inc tornadoes forecast for E France and S Germany (Estofex) – Published 250814 2215z (GMT/UTC)

European forecaster Estofex issues level 2 Storm Forecast for E France and S Germany…..

Storm Forecast

Forecast provided by ESTOFEX

Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 26 Aug 2014 06:00 to Wed 27 Aug 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 25 Aug 2014 21:17
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

A level 2 was issued for E France and S Germany mainly for tornadoes and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for NE/E France, Belgium, Luxembourg, S-central Germany and W Czech mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for S UK for a chance of tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for parts of the North Sea and Baltic Sea for spout-type tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

… SE UK, NE / E France, SW / central Germany …

A dissipating low pressure system over the British Isles which continues eastwards advects warm and unstable air into W / central Europe. A few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE are forecast consistently in the warm sector by the past runs of GFS and ECMWF, at least partly overlapping with 15 – 25 m/s of 0-6 km bulk shear. T/Td is forecast around 20/16 °C for SW Germany which leads to low LCL heights. Convection should fire up in the late morning / early afternoon hours even though there is some subsidence over the central parts of Germany from the upper ridge. Combined with enhanced LL shear and SRH1, this may allow a few tornadoes. Further north, LL shear is weaker but the background wind field should be intense enough to support isolated severe wind gusts mainly from downward transfer of momentum. Local heavy precipitation is possible but fast storm motion should preclude a risk of flooding in most cases.

Over UK, there is very weak LL shear forecast in the afternoon hours but a weak background flow should support some spout-type tornadoes.

… N Germany, Denmark, N Poland, S Scandinavia and Baltic Sea region…

Sufficient buoyancy and weak background winds enhance the chance for long-lasting convergent flow in the vicinity of convective storms and may lead to funnels which could end up in spout-type tornadoes. The greatest chance for landspouts / waterspouts exists around Denmark and N Poland. Further north, deep layer shear is also quite weak but the stronger background flow will likely disturb the formation of funnels / tornadoes.

Some regions with locally enhanced LL shear exist over Finland but overall instability is likely too low to support a tornado threat covered by a LVL1.

… NW Italy and Mediterranean Sea…

A plume of unstable air is advected from the Balearic Islands towards Italy. It will likely remain strongly capped but in case of convective initiation, isolated storms may profit from 20 – 25 m/s of 0-6 km bulk shear and could develop mesocyclones. Overall threat is likely too marginal for a threat level as the capping inversion is likely too strong for storm development.

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 25 Aug 2014 1717z (GMT/UTC)

Updated here

http://wp.me/p2k2mU-3th

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Signpost to UK SEVERE WEATHER, FLOOD WARNINGS and TORRO TORNADO WATCH – Updated 09 Aug 2014 2325z (GMT/UTC)

EX-Hurricane Bertha

TORRO TORNADO WATCH for much of southern, central, and eastern England, and parts of N England, Wales

and the Channel Islands.

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning; hail

Valid from 03:00 until 17:00GMT on Sunday 10th August 2014

A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 22:45GMT on Saturday 9th August 2014

Valid from/until: 03:00- 17:00GMT on Sunday 10th August 2014 for the following regions

Parts of (see map)

Much of southern, central, and eastern England, and parts of N England

Wales

Channel Islands

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning; hail

DISCUSSION

Deepening Atlantic storm with tropical airmass within its warm sector will cross the watch area during Sunday. Although the exact track is still somewhat uncertain, there are indications from several models that a dual-centred system will evolve. The first centre should move into Wales later tonight, with the main centre crossing SW England and heading NE to Lincs by afternoon, whilst the first centre tends to fill or is consumed by the second.

Strong lifting from a sharpening upper trough should steepen lapse rates enough for embedded convection to develop close to and to the south of both centres of low pressure, with wind shear favourable for severe weather, especially to the south and east of the second, deeper, low pressure area.

A mass of heavy rain is already moving in, and through the latter part of the night, embedded convection may affect parts of Wales and SW England, as the low pressure centre(s) move in. During Sunday morning, as the sharpening upper trough digs into the moist sector, it is possible that a squall line may develop across southern England/E Anglia. Additionally, ahead of the low pressure area moving from SW England to Lincs, convection may develop in the moist sector.

In each of these areas, low-level and deep layer wind shear appears sufficient for severe thunderstorms with strong winds and perhaps a tornado or two. The main caveat with this watch is that the maritime nature of the airmass would typically suggest fairly meagre lapse rates – however, global and mesoscale models indication fairly decent instability associated with this system (~1000J/Kg CAPE). If instability and shear can combine favourably, a strong tornado is possible.

The area from SW England to Lincs, and points south-east of there appear to have a higher risk of severe weather than elsewhere in the watch area. Please note this forecast has been issued early due to the fact the situation will not be monitored by TORRO overnight.

Forecaster: RPK

Torro Tornado Watch 2014/008 (Image: TORRO)

also UK SEVERE WEATHER & FLOOD WARNINGS

http://wp.me/p2k2mU-2Ne

 

UK: Ex Bertha bringing wet and windy weather on Sunday, says Met Office – Published 080814 1719z (GMT)

#UK #SEVERE #WEATHER, #FLOOD WARNINGS and #TORRO #TORNADO WATCH. #Bertha #UKstorm #FloodAware #Wx #News… http://t.co/fIcYIK4jr5

— Goaty’s News (UK) (@Goatys_News) August 9, 2014

8 August 2014 – The remnants of Hurricane Bertha will continue to track towards the UK during the next few days.

“The Met Office has been assessing the likelihood of the UK seeing any effects from Bertha by using our own forecast models alongside models from other world-leading forecast centres.

At the moment southern parts of the UK look as though they are most at risk during Sunday, followed by areas of northeast Scotland on Monday. However, there is also the possibility that the depression could move across northern France as a weak feature.

Bertha storm tracks Possible storm tracks for ex Bertha on Sunday   Bertha Impacts Likely impacts from ex Bertha on Sunday

The transition of Bertha from a tropical to an extra-tropical feature is a particularly hard one to forecast but there is increasing confidence that this feature will affect the UK on Sunday, though with very large uncertainty remaining over the track and intensity.

Chief Meteorologist, Paul Gundersen, said: “There is still some uncertainty surrounding this weekend’s weather, with the potential for heavy rainfall, strong coastal winds and large waves on Sunday. However, there is still a chance that the system may pass to the south of the country giving the UK a brighter day.

“Rain and strong winds may well bring disruption, especially across southern parts of the UK, with the potential for more than 50 mm of rain and coastal gusts of over 60 mph. People should stay up to date with the latest Met Office warnings.”

Craig Woolhouse, Environment Agency Flood Risk Manager, said: “Heavy rain on Sunday may lead to localised surface water flooding in some parts of England and Wales. On Sunday and Monday a combination of high spring tides and strong westerly winds bring a risk of large waves and spray and possible flooding to the south west coast of England and along the Severn Estuary. However, the forecast remains uncertain so we advise people to regularly check the flood risk situation over the next few days.

“If you’re travelling to or from holiday then check your flood risk before setting off and don’t drive through flood waters.

“The Environment Agency is continuing to monitor the situation closely along with the Met Office and local authorities. People can sign up to receive free flood warnings, check their flood risk and keep up to date with the latest situation on the GOV.UK website to  check if you are at risk of flooding or follow @EnvAgency and #floodaware on Twitter for the latest flood updates.”

Jeremy Parr, Head of Flood Risk Management, Natural Resources Wales, said: “Our officers will be monitoring forecasts closely over the weekend as the situation in Wales becomes clearer but in the meantime we are advising people to remain alert.

“We are likely to see some very heavy rain on Sunday into Monday, and combined with strong winds and high spring tides, conditions along the coast could be dangerous.  As the forecast remains unsettled, we are advising people to keep an eye on weather forecasts and check the latest flood alerts on our website.”

Ross Macloed,  RNLI Coastal Safety Manager, said: “Extreme wave heights combined with high tides can make some normal coastal activities we take for granted significantly more risky; the force of surging water or breaking waves can easily knock you over and quickly drag you out of your depth and once in the water it can be difficult to get out. As little as one cubic metre of water weighs a tonne and shows that you should never underestimate how powerful the sea can be.

“If you are planning a coastal activity, our advice is to respect the water, and watch the shore from a safe distance and assess the conditions; think about the risk before deciding if  you need to go closer.”

Met Office records show that there are similar examples of intense low pressure systems occurring in August, for example, the 24 August 2005 where an active storm sat off the northwest coast of Scotland bringing strong winds and heavy rain. On the 30 August 1992 a depression swung up from the southwest across the UK giving a wet and windy Bank Holiday weekend.

We will be keeping an eye on the latest outlook for the weather over the next few days and the progress of ex Bertha to keep everyone up to date with the latest information.

Last updated: 8 August 2014″ –  Met Office

Met Office Weather Warnings for mobile

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Ex Bertha more likely to miss UK

 

Official blog of the Met Office news team

Tropical Storm Bertha is currently off the north east coast of the US and is likely to become an ‘extra tropical storm’ on Thursday.

It’s then expected to track across the Atlantic – and while there are still a number of possible outcomes, it looks increasingly likely that the UK will miss any serious impacts from ‘ex Bertha’.

The Met Office has been assessing the likelihood of the UK seeing any effects from Bertha by using our own forecast model alongside models from other world-leading forecast centres.

Map shows likely storm track for ex Bertha by midday Sunday. Map shows likely storm track for ex Bertha by midday Sunday.

At the moment the majority of forecasts from those models suggest ex Bertha will track to the south of the UK as a relatively weak low pressure system.

In fact it’s debatable whether this is even ex Bertha, as the storm declines to such an extent as it comes across the Atlantic…

View original post 195 more words

France: Tornado kills 2 campers in Ardèche and Gard. 16 injured across Rhone-Alpes – Published 210714 1920z (UTC)

Two campers died when a tornado ripped through neighbouring campsites in Ardèche and Gard yesterday, on a weekend that saw much of France battered by storms.

A 50-year-old camper was killed when the tornado touched down at a campsite in Saint-Just d’Ardèche, causing trees to fall on dozens of tents. And a 46-year-old woman was fatally injured when the same tornado felled a tree at a site in Saint-Paulet-de-Caisson.

A total 40 campers were evacuated as the twister damaged a number of trees. The twin tragedies in Ardèche and Gard were caused as storms that swept across France passed through Cévennes and Nimes before returning to the Rhône Gard.

Elsewhere, hailstones the size of golf balls left 10 people injured and forced organisers to call a halt to a planned concert by Vanessa Paradis at the Grand Souk festival in Riberac, Dordogne, on Saturday.

Meanwhile, 1,000 jazz fans had to be evacuated from a festival concert in Saint-Emilion. Planned events on Sunday were also cancelled as volunteers cleared up after the storm.

Six scouts from Oise were taken to hospital in Gironde, on Saturday, after suffering lightning burns while on a camping trip in Saint-Simon de Pellouaille. Across Aquitaine, 8,500 households were left without power as storms swept through the region on Saturday night.

Monday, 21 July, 2014 at 10:05 (10:05 AM) UTC RSOE

Other Reports

The Local

Storms leave two dead on French camp-sites

Published: 20 Jul 2014 21:21 GMT+02:00
Updated: 20 Jul 2014 21:21 GMT+02:00

Storms leave two dead on French campsites

A tornado ripped through a campsite in south-central France leaving one man dead. Photo: Screengrab France 2 TV

The tornado hit a campsite in the town of Saint-Just-d’Ardeche, pulling down trees and destroying caravans and tents on Sunday afternoon.

A 42-year-old Frenchman died when a tree fell on him as the tornado hit. Five others were left injured although their conditions are not believed to be life-threatening.

Captain François Degrange, from the local police told AFP that trees had been brought down over a three to four kilometer radius.

“I have never seen that in my career before,” he said.

In a separate incident a woman was also killed by a falling tree at a campsite at Saint-Paulet-de-Caisson in the neighbouring Gard department.

According to Midi-Libre newspaper a baby was also injured as the storms hit and had to be rushed to hospital.

Hundreds of campers in the region have had to be evacuated.

The storms, which brought the mini-heatwave to an abrupt end, were accompanied by gale force winds and hailstones the size of tennis balls in some regions.

Nine departments in eastern France remained on alert for storms on Sunday evening, while other areas of north eastern France were on alert for heavy rain and floods.

Europe: Euro-forecaster Estofex issues Level 2 Storm Forecast for N Italy – Published 290614 1700z

Storm Forecast

Forecast provided by ESTOFEX (Click image to go to source)

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 29 Jun 2014 06:00 to Mon 30 Jun 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 29 Jun 2014 04:22
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 2 was issued for N Italy mainly for severe convective wind gusts, large hail and excessive convective precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for parts of central Europe mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

The cold front associated with a large amplitude mid level trough from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean Sea is pushing eastward through Italy and central Europe today. Surface level lows reside over southern Scandinavia and northern Italy. Cold airmass thunderstorms are likely over France, Benelux and western Germany. The prefrontal airmass over Italy is moderately unstable due to the presence of the Saharan Air Layer with steep mid level lapse rates and 10-12 g/kg moist boundary layer air. Strong winds in mid levels create a favorable kinematic environment for storms.

DISCUSSION

…Italy, southern Austria and western Balkan…

Some regional WRF models predict over 2500 J/kg SBCAPE over the Lgurian Sea. MLCAPE should be 1000-2000 J/kg. This will be capped south of the Po valley. Either way, given the 20 m/s deep layer shear and strong moisture lifting over the south slopes of the Alps triggering of supercells and MCSes is highly probable, with chances of widespread large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. During the evening as the cold front comes through, the model scenario (GFS, WRF) is that some discrete supercells or a linear system will also affect the area south of the Po valley. The area of Austria to Croatia will likely see the strongest moisture lift and largest storms, and can become affected by excessive convective rainfall, at least locally. The PV/dynamic tropopause intrusion acquires a negative tilt at night which might help to keep the storms active for long in the region near Slovenia, although WRF models keep the storms moving. Tornadoes are not ruled out with pre-Alpine 0-1 km shear of 8 m/s and locally higher.

…Hungary, N and E Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania…

Relatively modest MLCAPE should exist in a broad area from Hungary/Austria to the Baltics. The presence of 10-15 m/s deep layer shear could develop persistent and rotating updrafts which can locally release large hail. The frontal convergence zone in the Austrian-Hungarian-Czechian borders region should be the main focus for convective development, another is NE Poland and Lithuania near the occlusion.

…southern Sweden and Norway…

Some instability is present within the low. Low cloud bases and slow cell motion combined with good low-level buoyancy and convergence zones are found mainly over southern Sweden. Such conditions are favorable for spout type tornadoes and funnels.

ESTOFEX FAQ

France: Euro-forecaster Estofex issues Mesoscale Discussion – potential for tornadoes – Published 280614 1638z

Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sat 28 Jun 2014 14:00 to Sat 28 Jun 2014 21:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 28 Jun 2014 14:39
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

…France to Southwestern Germany…

A surface low pressure center lies currently (14Z) at the west coast of France (Bordeaux). A large Atlantic upper trough moves into the region and will provide destabilization of the mid and upper levels, which is needed as 12Z soundings still show inversions at 900 and 450 hPa. A stationary frontal zone is well-defined by thermal gradients and a sharp wind shift (NE/S) running from some 100km north of Bordeaux to Stuttgart approximately.

Observed surface mixing ratios in France vary at 13Z between 10.5 and 13 g/kg with potential temperatures ranging between 26 and 32ーC, the higher values over the Massif Central.
Inserting these values into Bordeaux and Nimes 12Z soundings, the cap can be bypassed in some locations and some 1000 J/kg SBCAPE could be obtained, but MLCAPE will be lower and mixed parcels may have some trouble with the cap.

In fact, satellite shows initiation over northern Massif Central oriented SW-NE and along the front in the west (WSW-ENE). The storms will grow in a strong kinematic environment with large but relatively straight hodographs. Observed Bordeaux 600 hPa wind is 60 kts with 40 kts at 900 hPa. This directly translates into a primary threat of severe convective wind gusts, especially as cold pools join into an MCS. Deep layer shear values of 15-20 m/s and SREH of 150 mイ/sイ initially and over 250 mイ/sイ predicted by GFS at 18Z (SW France) support supercells. 0-1 km shear ranges from 10 m/s in the afternoon to over 15 m/s during the evening (GFS). Together with relatively low LCL (descending to <1000 m in the evening) this underlines potential for tornadoes, and supports bow echoes. Large hail will be possible as well, but the upper level inversion represents a mixed phase region without much buoyancy which could be a limiting factor.

After 18Z the mid level cold front comes in from the west and will likely trigger storms in SW France moving upscale to a somewhat parallel-stratiform MCS over the southeastern quarter of France (this will happen beyond the validity time of this MD).

Japan: Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS 07W 171500Z nr 29.6N 131.9E, moving E at 34 knots (JTWC) – Updated 170614 1715z

Tropical Depression Hagibis

16 June 2014 to 18 June 2014

Tropical Storm HAGIBIS 1407 – JMA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS) – JTWC

Weather Underground

(Image: wunderground.com) Tropical Depression Hagibis 16 June 2014 to 18 June 2014 (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1407

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories for Japan

CLICK IMAGE TO GO TO SOURCE (JMA) WHERE THE WARNING MAP IS INTERACTIVE

 

TS 1407 (HAGIBIS)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 15 June 2014

<Analyses at 15/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N23°25′(23.4°)
E116°30′(116.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE280km(150NM)
NW220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 16/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N25°50′(25.8°)
E117°00′(117.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0714.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/07W_171132sair.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 171500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
171200Z — NEAR 29.2N 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 080 DEGREES AT 34 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2N 130.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 30.9N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 27 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 31.9N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 29.6N 131.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 34 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.
//
NNNN

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Jun, 2014 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

NO WARNING AS AT 170614 1646 UTC

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Hagibis re-intensifies near Japan, What to Expect – WestPacWx

Tropical Storm Hagibis is acting like that annoying little person you know that will just not go away. This storm formed quickly in the south china sea, came on shore Sunday, weakened over China and then made a return from the grave Tuesday morning in the East China Sea as a Tropical Storm yet again with winds sustained at 65kph and pressure at 996hpa.

In reality though this storm really is sub-tropical at this point. The bulk of the convection remains along the western side of the storm with dry air wrapping in from the north on the east. Furthermore it has an abundance of upper level support shearing apart the low level circulation.  Still though it will pack a 1-2 punch with the rain season front in western Japan.

VIS SAT

Specifically southern Kyushu heavy rainfall up to 200mm is expected through Wednesday morning along with high winds and large waves near the coastline.

The storm is racing north of Okinawa today but a few thunderstorms are still possible on what would be a cold front developing south of the storm. A few of these could become strong. The biggest problem in Okinawa though will be the gusty winds and high waves from the North.

Hagibis will continue to track east south of Tokyo but still will bring high waves up and down the pacific coast of Japan as a strong extra-tropical storm.

Farther North in Japan what we are seeing is a cut off low proving to be the ignition for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday in Central and Northern Japan. Cold upper level air combined with day time heating could trigger more severe weather.

I say more because on Monday a storm brought heavy rainfall and hail to Tochigi prefecture. In Utsunomiya flooding was reported along with landslides causing 30 families to be evacuated and nine homes were inundated by flood waters.

In Eastern China is still expected mostly due to the rainy season front. Flooding is still possible in areas south of the Yangzi river basin.

The monsoon continues to settle farther south but later this week we could see another surge from the south west. Check the latest update for more information on this..

https://i1.wp.com/www.southchinasea.org/files/2011/08/Southeast-Asia-Reference-Map-CIA-World-Factbook.jpg

(Image credit: middlebury.edu)

MARITIME

Marine Warnings – Japan

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1407 HAGIBIS (1407) 996 HPA
AT 29.1N 130.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 35 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 31.0N 136.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 32.1N 141.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

HIGH SEAS FORECAST JAPAN June 17 2014 – 14:24:49 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST HONG KONG CHINA June 17 2014 – 14:20:23 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST CHINA June 17 2014 – 13:39:55 UTC

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Arabian Sea/ Oman/ India : Tropical Cyclone NANAUK 02A 131200Z nr 19.8 N 62.4 E, moving WNW at 6.4 knots Weakened to a Depression(RSMC New Delhi) – Updated 130614 1737z

Tropical Cyclone NANAUK (2A)

10/7/2014 to 13/7/2014

 

Weather Underground

(Image: wunderground.com) TC Nanauk (Click image to visit Weather Underground)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image to visit Weather Underground)

RSMC New Delhi

mapimage

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

 

FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAY PYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA ( BANGLADESH )
STORM STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN) +
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM ‘NANAUK’ ADVISORY NO. TWENTY ONE ISSUED AT 1400 UTC OF 13TH JUNE

TH
2014 BASED ON 1200 UTC CHARTS OF 13 JUNE 2014

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED ABOUT 12 KMPH DURING PAST 6 HOURS, WEAKENED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT
0
1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 13 JUNE, 2014 OVER WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH AND
0
LONGITUDE 62.4 EAST, ABOUT 1100 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI(43003), 850 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
VERAVAL(42909) AND 370 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND (41288). THE SYSTEM WOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN FURTHER INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA
DURING NEXT 24 HRS

ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 1.5. THE CLOUD PATTERN
IS SHEAR PATTERN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS IS
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM
CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITH INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER THE ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN
0 0 0 0
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH TO 22.0 NORTH LONGITUDES 58.0 EAST TO 64.0 EAST. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP
0
TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT MINUS 78 C.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 994 HPA.

THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 2100 UTC OF 13 JUNE 2014.

Phone: (91) 11-24652484 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.co

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0214.gif

 

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/02A_130530sams.jpg

 

 

WTIO31 PGTW 130900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK) WARNING NR 014A RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK) WARNING NR 014A RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
130600Z — NEAR 21.3N 64.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 64.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 21.8N 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 22.2N 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 64.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) CLEARLY SHOWS THE FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS DRIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) BY OVER
200 NM AND HAS BEGUN TO UNRAVEL. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS THE CDO
FEATURE REMAINS EXPANSIVE AND DEEP AS STRONG OUTFLOW – GENERATED BY
THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET WINDS – PROVIDE EXCELLENT VENTILATION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES
AND FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (40-50
KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DECOUPLED FROM ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND DRIFT POLEWARD WITH THE
850 MB FLOW AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE, TYPICAL
WITH RAPIDLY WEAKENING VORTICES, HAS BECOME WIDELY SPREAD, LENDING
LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

WTIN01 DEMS 130910

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 13 JUNE 2014
———————————————-
PART I:- STORM WARNING (.)
PART II:-THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘NANAUK’ OVER EAST CENTRAL AND ADJOINING
WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTERED
AT 1200 UTC OF YESTERDAY THE 12TH JUNE 2014 OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA(.) IT FURTHER MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS
AND NOW LIES CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 13TH JUNE 2014 WITHIN
HALF A DEGREE OF LAT. 18.7°N AND LONG. 62.7°E. THE SYSTEM WOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY.
THE FEEBLE OFF SHORE TROUGH AT MEAN SEA LEVEL NOW EXTENDS FROM
MAHARASHTRA COAST TO KERALA COAST(.)
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)

A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:-WSW-LY 10/15 KTS.(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:-SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS.(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)3-4 M (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:-WSW-LY 10/15 KTS.(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:-SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS.(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)3-4 M (.)

A2 ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
SW/S-LY 35/40 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO THE N OF 18 DEG N AND
W OF 66 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE W OF 65 DEG E(.)
REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-2-1 NM TO THE W OF 65 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- MORE THAN 5 M(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
SW/S-LY 35/40 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO THE N OF 18 DEG N AND
W OF 63 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE W OF 63 DEG E(.)
REST AREA FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-2-1 NM TO THE W OF 63 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- MORE THAN 5 M(.)

A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 25/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)4-5 M(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 25/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)4-5 M(.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS:-
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 15 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 15 DEG N:WSW-LY 20/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO
THE E OF 90 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 15 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 15 DEG N:WSW-LY 20/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO
THE E OF 90 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

OMAN MARINE FORECAST http://met.gov.om/eng/marine_forecast.php

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  MaharasthraComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Ratnagiri
High waves in the range of 3.0 – 4.2 meters are predicted during 17:30 hrs on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hrs on 15-06-2014 along the coast from Malvan to Vasai of Maharashtra coast.
Winds will be mainly southwesterly, speed 45-50 kmph temporarily/momentarily reaching 60 kmph in gusts/squall.
Sea will be rough with southwesterly waves.
Fishermen are advised not to go out in the sea during next 24 hours.
Due to high swell propagation, combined with high tide, chances of wave surges are possible around 13:30 hrs on 14/06/2014 along the coast of Maharashtra.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Vasai

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Gujarat
High waves in the range of 3 -4.3 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along the coast from Jakhau to Diu Head of Gujarat coast.
Wind will be 35 to 45 kmph from southewesterly direction wind speed in gust may temporarily reach 55 kmph. Sea will be rough with waves from southewesterly direction.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during the same period.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Okha

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  KarnatakaComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Karwar
High waves in the range of 3 – 3.8 meters are predicted during 1730 hrs on 13-06-2014 to 2330 hrs on 15-06-2014 along the coast from Mangalore to Karwar of Karnataka coast.
Strong onshore winds from South Westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely along off Karnataka coast.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Karwar

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  LakshadweepComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Agatti
High waves in the range of 3.0 -4.1 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along Lakshadweep Islands between Minicoy to Bitra.
Strong onshore winds from westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely over Lakshadweep area.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Minicoy

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  KeralaComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Kollam
High waves in the range of 3.0 – 3.5 meters are forecasted during 1730 hours on 13-06-2014 to 2330 hours of 15-06-2014 along the Kerala coast between Vilinjhinjam to Kasargod.
Strong onshore winds from westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely along off Kerala coast.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Kasargod

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Tamil Nadu
High waves in the range of 2.5 – 3.1 meters are predicted during 1730 hrs on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hrs on 15-06-2014 along the Kolachal to Kilakarai of Southern Tamil Nadu.
Strong offshore winds from south westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely off Tamil Nadu coast.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Kolachal

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  AndamanComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Portblair
High waves in the range of 2.5 – 3.3 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along the west coast of Andaman Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Coco Channel.
Under the influence of strong south west monsoon current, strong south westerly wind speed exceeding 55kmph and generally rough to very rough likely along and off A & N coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

Significant Wave Height
Port-Blair

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Nicobar
High waves in the range of 2.5 – 3.2 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 12-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 14-06-2014 along the west coast of Nicobar Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Great Channel.
Under the influence of strong south west monsoon current, strong south westerly wind speed exceeding 55kmph and generally rough to very rough likely along and off A & N coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

Significant Wave Height
Car-Nicobar

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Goa
High waves in the range of 3.0 -3.9 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along the coast of Goa between Vengurla to Vasco.
Fishermen are advised not to go out in the sea during next 24 hours.

Significant Wave Height
Vengurla
images
AVHRR Image

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Europe: Very dangerous weather – ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: LEVEL 3! for NW France & BENELUX for very large hail, damaging wind gusts, tornadoes & excessive precipitation – Published 080614 2310z

THIS INFORMATION IS NO LONGER VALID

ESTOFEX Storm Forecast

Embedded image permalink

Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 09 Jun 2014 06:00 to Tue 10 Jun 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 08 Jun 2014 22:31
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 3 was issued for NW France and BENELUX for very large hail, damaging wind gusts, tornadoes and excessive precipitation.

A level 2 was issued for much of France and NW Germany mainly for very large hail and damaging wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for England mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for E Germany and Poland mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Russia and Ukraine mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

In between of the deep low over the Atlantic and the ridge over Central Europe, strong southerly to southwesterly flow will advect hot airmass characterised by steep mid-level lapse rates from N Africa towards France, Germany and then around the ridge towards Poland. Potentially dangerous situation will evolve over France, BENELUX and NW Germany just ahead of the diffuse, wavy frontal boundary that will remain quasistationary close to French coastline during the most of the day. Another low will slowly dig SE-wards across NW Russia. Moderate to strong NW-ly flow is simulated at its southwestern flank. With prevailing low geopotentials over much of Eastern Europe, so scattered DMC is expected also there, albeit severe threat will be smaller than in case of France / BENELUX.

DISCUSSION

… France towards BENELUX and NW Germany …

Very dangerous setup will develop over the region by the late afternoon hours. With pronounced overlap of low-level moisture and steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates, models agree on the development of high to extreme CAPE values, with Central France towards BENELUX and NW Germany having the highest odds of seeing 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE by the late evening. As 500 hPa winds between 15 to 25 m/s overlap with backed low-level flow thanks to the presence of the surface trough, strong DLS (20-25 m/s) is forecast. By the late evening, with the enhancement of the low-level wind field with deepening trough, SREH values will increase especially over NW France / BENELUX (with values over 300 m2/s2 possible). Such setup will be very conducive for intense supercells / bow-echoes, capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Towards the evening (beyond 18 UTC), as LLS strengthens, tornadoes will become a threat as well, especially if isolated supercells manage to persist into this time frame.

However, models do not simulate any pronounced QG forcing to rapidly reduce CIN. This will, on one hand, allow for CAPE to build-up steadily towards the late afternoon. On the other hand, it is highly questionable how many storms will initiate and where exactly. There is considerable disagreement by individual models. Overnight / morning convection, along with the outflow boundaries laid by these may be crucial in this setup. Current thinking is, that the foci for late afternoon initiation will be NW France, along the surface convergence zone, with storms spreading into BENELUX. It is likely that these storms will be isolated supercells at first, with subsequent clustering resulting in a fast forward propagating bow-echo. Towards the night, Southern to Central France may see convective initiation, with another possiblity of MCS travelling north towards N France.

Level 3 was introduced for the region, where the highest probability of high storm coverage is forecast and where high density of extremely severe events is most likely. With that in mind, any spot in the Level 2 may see extremely severe storms in these highly favourable conditions, provided storms can initiate.

… England …

Models show that somewhat warmer, moist airmass should advect over E England as the wave in the frontal boundary propagates towards northwest. However, edge of the EML plume should remain to the east, so that MLCAPE values will stay on the order of hundreds of J/kg. As strong flow ovespreads the region, over 25 m/s of DLS is forecast. All models agree on initiation along the lifting warm wave of the boundary. There will be a potential for isolated supercell development, which would be capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. However, lack of steep mid-level lapse rates may limit the hail threat, so that a high-end Lvl 1 instead of Lvl 2 is issued.

… Poland …

As EML is advected around the ridge towards east, overlap with modest low-level moisture will contribute to the development of moderate instability, with MLCAPE values above 1000 J/kg. Vertical wind shear should be moderate, between 10 to 15 m/s of bulk shear in the 0-6 km layer, increasing NEwards to between 14 and 20 m/s. Some strong multicells (or perhaps even brief supercells) may initiate along the ill-defined warm front with attendant threats of large hail and severe wind gusts.

… Russia …

With the progressing cut-off low, a plume of steep lapse rates will be pushed southeastwards, but still, the extreme eastern part of the forecast area may see some stronger multicells capable of large hail and/or severe wind gusts. Wind shear should be weak to moderate, perhaps limiting the supercell threat (and very large hail risk).

Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Mon 09 Jun 2014 10:00 to Tue 10 Jun 2014 15:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 09 Jun 2014 09:48
Forecaster: PUCIK

Abundant DMC activity is already ongoing in the morning hours. Most of this activity is likely elevated with risk for large hail in the environment of steep lapse rates. The first cluster is now situated over Belgium moving towards Netherlands. Second one is located over NW France with similar movement direction. As daytime heating continues ahead of these clusters with easterly to southeasterly moist surface flow (dewpoints between 18 and 20 ーC), this activity may eventually become surface-based, especially at the eastern flank of the systems. That would rapidly increase chances for supercellular convection capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts.

To the east and south of the ongoing convective systems, diurnal heating along with backing low-level flow is observed. Further backing of the low-level flow is forecast as surface pressure falls over Southern France. Current thinking is that despite this early activity, best conditions will still develop by the late afternoon with high CAPE values and strong DLS.

SEE ALSO:

(Click image for link)

 

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Eastern Pacific/Mexico: Tropical Cyclone developing. Invest 94E 091400Z nr 15.9N 102.3W, moving NW at 3 knots (JTWC) – Updated 090614 1700z

THIS IS OUT OF DATE NOW, NO LONGER VALID

GO HERE https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/06/12/eastern-pacificmexico-hurricane-christina-cat4-03e-121230z-nr-16-4n-106-9w-moving-wnw-at-7-knots-intensifying-nhc-updated-120614-1400z/

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (Invest 94E)

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH  –JTWC

HIGH CHANCE THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO – NHC

MEXICO BEWARE!

Weather Underground

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Last Updated 09/06/2014, 13:00:00 (GMT Standard Time)
Location 15.9 102.3W Movement NW at 5 mph
Wind 45KPH

National Hurricane Center

National Weather Service

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A low pressure system located about 150 miles south-southwest of
Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is showing signs of organization this morning.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and this system will likely become a tropical
depression during the next day or two while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

 

AXPZ20 KNHC 091535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N…EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURE…

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 16N102W IS CURRENTLY
MOVING NW AT 5 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF CENTER WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
LOW…AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N78W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 06N89W THEN CONTINUES FROM LOW PRES 16N102W TO 10N120W TO
09N128W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N128W TO 08N140W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR 16N102W DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE…SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE AXIS E
OF 85W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 88W.

…DISCUSSION…
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 21N116W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
SOUTHEASTWARD…PARALLELING THE COAST FROM CABO CORRIENTES
MEXICO TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WHERE IT MOVES INLAND. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS IS ASSISTING IN
LIFTING THE MOIST AIR POOLED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
SEEN IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY…WITH VALUES OVER 2.25
INCHES SPANNING THE COASTAL REGION FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO
MANZANILLO. THIS MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.

VERTICAL LIFT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE THE SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION…SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM SW OF THE COAST OF EL
SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. THE UPPER RIDGE
LOCATION IS EXPECTED TO VARY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS…KEEPING THE CURRENTLY FAVORED AREAS FOR DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE SAME GENERAL REGIONS.

AT THE SURFACE…A 1030 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR
40N142W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 32N134W TO 20N120W.
TRADE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE S OF THE
RIDGE AXIS…WITH A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE FOUND N OF THE
RIDGE AXIS W OF 125W WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA AND THIS RIDGE IS STRONG. SEAS TO 10
FT CAN BE FOUND OVER N CENTRAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS OVER N CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TUE…SHIFTING N-NE WED AS
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD.
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BRING 8 FT SEAS AS FAR S AS 21N BY WED
MORNING.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 17-19 SECOND RANGE
HAS BLANKETED MUCH OF THE MAINLAND COASTLINE THIS MORNING. A NEW
BATCH OF SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL HAS REACHED THE EQUATOR W OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. LOOK FOR SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE
OVER CENTRAL WATERS S OF 01N THROUGH WED MORNING.

$$
SCHAUER

 

Other Reports

NASA’s Hurricane: (Mon 9 June 2014 1749 UTC) EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN – System 94E is rapidly developing- The National Hurricane Center noted that System 94 E is now a well-defined low pressure system and is located about 150 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo,Mexico.
Environmental conditions are conducive for continued development, and this system will likely become a tropical depression later this afternoon or tonight.
The low is expected to move generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, which, NHC noted, will keep the strongest winds away from the coast of southwestern Mexico.

This GOES West satellite imagery from 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT) shows System 94E off the southwestern coast of Mexico.

 

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep9414.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/94E_091500sair.jpg

WTPN21 PHNC 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.7N 101.6W TO 16.9N 106.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
091400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N
102.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.1W, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 102.3W, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED WITH FORMATIVE BANDS
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE IS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG SOUTEASTWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS
PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS, ARE HIGHLY
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101500Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

000
FZPN03 KNHC 091535
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC MON JUN 09 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 3.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON JUN 09.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUN 10.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED JUN 11.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES NEAR 16N102W 1007 MB MOVING NW 5 KT. WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
17N104W 1003 MB. WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
17N107W 1002 MB. WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER AND 45 NM
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 FT.

.S OF 02N BETWEEN 93W AND 127W AND S OF 01S BETWEEN 83W AND 93W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN SE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 01N BETWEEN 93W AND 120W AND S OF 01S
BETWEEN 86W AND 93W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
PRIMARILY IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 01N BETWEEN 97W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN SE SWELL.

.N OF 29N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO
10 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N BETWEEN 123W AND 136W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN N SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N BETWEEN 127W AND 132W N WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 22N BETWEEN 124W AND
138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 128W AND 132W N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF
21N W OF A LINE FROM 30N124W TO 21N131W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1415 UTC MON JUN 09…
.SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM SW OF COAST BETWEEN 88W AND
92W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N89W THEN
CONTINUES FROM LOW PRES 16N102W TO 10N120W TO 09N128W. ITCZ AXIS
FROM 09N128W TO 08N140W. LOW PRES NEAR 16N102W…NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W AND WITHIN 180 NM N
OF AXIS E OF 88W.

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

 

METAREA XII

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Tropical Depression (Ex TS BORIS) 02E 041000Z nr 16.3N 93.8W, moving N at 5 knots (JTWC) – Updated 040614 1251z

Tropical Depression 02E (TWO-E)

BORIS WEAKENS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SOAK EASTERN MEXICO(NHC)

(Desplcese hacia abajo para la traduccin española) (Scroll down for Spanish translation)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 040831
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014
200 AM PDT WED JUN 04 2014

BORIS WEAKENS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SOAK EASTERN MEXICO
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT0900 UTCINFORMATION
-
LOCATION16.2N 93.9W
ABOUT 85 MI140 KM E OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS35 MPH55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENTN OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE1003 MB29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREAPLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

AT 200 AM PDT0900 UTCTHE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTHLONGITUDE 93.9 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH7 KM/HAND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACKTHE DEPRESION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH55
KM/HWITH HIGHER GUSTS. BORIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
-
RAINFALLBORIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS. THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL
BRING ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TO AS MUCH AS 20 INCHES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPORTS FROM
THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE INDICATE THAT THE CITY OF TONALA ON
THE COAST OF CHIAPAS RECIEVED NEAR 8.5 INCHES213 MMOF RAIN
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0214.gif

WTPN31 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BORIS) WARNING NR 007
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
040600Z NEAR 16.0N 93.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 93.9W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z 17.0N 93.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z 18.0N 93.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 93.8W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BORIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 79 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TEHUANTEPEC, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.
//
NNNN

 

Other

TSR logoNE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 4 Jun, 2014 9:00 GMT

Tropical Depression BORIS (02E) currently located near 16.2 N 93.9 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

NASA Hurricane:

E. PACIFIC *Full Update* NASA Infrared Imagery Sees Heavy Rain Potential in Tropical Depression 2E
NASAs Aqua satellite captured an infrared image of Tropical Depression 2E that revealed high, very cold cloud top temperatures.FULL STORY/WARNINGS:
http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/93e-eastern-pacific-ocean-june-2014

MARITIME

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0830

WTPZ22 KNHC 040830
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014
0900 UTC WED JUN 04 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 93.9W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEATCENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 93.9W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 93.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.0N 93.7WPOST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KTGUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.0N 93.5WPOST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KTGUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800ZDISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 93.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

 

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/index.htm?http%3A//www.passageweather.com/maps/npacific/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

SPANISH

Depresin Tropical 02E ( TWO -E)

……… BORIS DEBILITA PERO SEGUIR REMOJO ORIENTAL MEXICO ……… ( NHC )

( Desplcese HACIA abajo prr la traduccin española ) ( Desplcese hacia abajo para la traduccin española )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Previsin de 5 das ( clic en la imagen para la fuente )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Satlite ( clic en la imagen para la fuente )

Servicio Meteorolgico Nacional

Centro Nacional de Huracanes

[ Imagen de la prediccin de 5 das de la pista prevista, y las zonas costeras bajo una advertencia o un reloj ]

000
WTPZ32 TJSJ 040831
TCPEP2

BOLETN
DEPRESION TROPICAL BORIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP022014
200 AM PDT MIRCOLES 04 de junio 2014

… BORIS DEBILITA PERO SEGUIR REMOJO ORIENTAL MEXICO …
RESUMEN DE LAS 200 AM PDT … 0900 UTC … INFORMACIN
—————-
UBICACIN … 16,2 N 93.9W
ACERCA DE MI 85 … 140 KM E DE SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 35 MPH … 55 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … N O 360 GRADOS A 5 MPH … 7 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 1003 MB … 29.62 PULGADAS
RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——-
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA DEJADO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
ADVERTENCIAS .

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

NO HAY COSTERA RELOJES O ADVERTENCIA EN EFECTO .

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … FAVOR DE
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA .
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS 48 HORAS
———-
A LAS 200 AM PDT … 0900 UTC … EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL BORIS
ESTABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.2 NORTE … LONGITUD 93.9 OESTE .
LA DEPRESION SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH … 7 KM / H … Y
SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24
HORAS . EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA … EL DEPRESION CONTINUARA MOVIENDOSE
INLAND MS LEJOS .

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A CERCA DE 35 MPH … 55
KM / H … CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES . BORIS SE ESPERA PARA SER
BAJA REMANENTE TARDE HOY .
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES 1003 MB … 29.62 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
——–
LLUVIA … BORIS SE PREV QUE PRODUZCA CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA
DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS SOBRE LA
Estados mexicanos de Oaxaca y Chiapas . ESTAS LLUVIAS adicionales sern
TRAER AISLADAS CANTIDADES TOTALES DE TORMENTA a tanto como 20 PULGADAS …
Especialmente en los terrenos ms altos . ESTAS LLUVIAS POSIBLEMENTE
RESULTADO EN INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO . INFORMES DE
EL SERVICIO DE TIEMPO MEXICANA INDICAN QUE LA CIUDAD DE TONALA EN
LA COSTA DE CHIAPAS RECIBIDO CERCA DE 8.5 PULGADAS … 213 MM … DE LLUVIA
DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS .
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
—–
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA … 800 AM PDT .

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

Centro de Advertencia de Tifones Conjunto ( JTWC )

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0214.gif

Google Earth Overlay grfico

WTPN31 PHNC 041000
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TIFN WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI / /
SUBJ / TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVERTENCIA / /
OBS /
1 . DEPRESION TROPICAL 02E ( BORIS ) ADVERTENCIA NR 007
Rebajado de 02E TORMENTA TROPICAL
01 ACTIVO CICLON TROPICAL EN EASTPAC
Vientos mximos sostenidos en base al promedio de un minuto
RADIOS DE VIENTO VLIDA SOBRE AGUA ABIERTA SOLAMENTE

ADVERTENCIA POSICIN :
040600Z – CERCA 16.0N 93.9W
Los movimientos ms all de seis horas – 010 GRADOS A 05 KTS
POSICIN EXACTA EN EL PLAZO DE 040 NM
Posicin basada en el centro situado POR SATLITE
ACTUALIDAD DISTRIBUCIN DE VIENTO :
Vientos mximos sostenidos – 030 KT , KT 040 RAFAGAS
RADIOS DE VIENTO VLIDA SOBRE AGUA ABIERTA SOLAMENTE
POSIT REPEAT: 16.0N 93.9W

Previsiones:
12 HRS , vlido en :
041800Z – 17.0N 93.7W
Vientos mximos sostenidos – 025 KT , KT 035 RAFAGAS
RADIOS DE VIENTO VLIDA SOBRE AGUA ABIERTA SOLAMENTE
Disipando COMO UN CICLON TROPICAL RELEVANTE SOBRE TIERRA
VECTOR DE 24 HR POSIT : 010 DEG / 05 KTS

24 HRS , vlido en :
050600Z – 18.0N 93.5W
Vientos mximos sostenidos – 020 KT , KT 030 RAFAGAS
RADIOS DE VIENTO VLIDA SOBRE AGUA ABIERTA SOLAMENTE
Disipa como CICLON TROPICAL SIGNIFICATIVA SOBRE TIERRA

OBSERVACIONES:
041000Z POSICIN CERCA 16.3N 93.8W .
DEPRESION TROPICAL 02E ( BORIS ) , ubicado aproximadamente a 79 NM
Este-sureste de Tehuantepec, MEXICO , ha rastreado AT 05 NUDOS
EN LOS LTIMOS SEIS HORAS.
MXIMA altura de ola significativa AT 040600Z es de 10 pies . SIGUIENTE
ADVERTENCIAS EN 041600Z , 042200Z 050400Z Y .
/ /
NNNN

otro
TSR Logone Pacfico: Alerta de tormenta emitido al 04 de junio 2014 09:00 GMT

Depresin Tropical BORIS ( 02E ) que actualmente se encuentra cerca de 16,2 N 93,9 W se prev a la huelga de la tierra a la siguiente verosimilitud ( s ) en el tiempo de espera determinado ( s ) :

Alerta Amarilla Pas ( s ) o provincia ( s )
Mxico
probabilidad de TS es del 70% en la actualidad

Tenga en cuenta que
Alerta amarilla ( elevada ) es CAT 1 o superior a entre 10 % y 30 % de probabilidad , o TS a por encima de 50 % de probabilidad .
CAT 1 significa vientos de fuerza de huracn de al menos 74 mph , 119 km / ho 64 nudos de 1 minuto sostenido .
TS significa vientos de fuerza de tormenta tropical de por lo menos 39 mph , a 63 km / ho 34 nudos de 1 minuto sostenido .

Para obtener informacin de previsin grfica y ms detalles por favor visite http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

NASA Huracn:

E. PACFICO * actualizacin completa * imgenes de la NASA Infrared ve pesado Potencial Lluvia en la depresin tropical 2E
Satlite Aqua de la NASA captur una imagen infrarroja de la depresin tropical 2E que revel altos , top temperatures.FULL HISTORIA nube muy fra / ADVERTENCIAS :
http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/93e-eastern-pacific-ocean-june-2014
MARTIMO
METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0830

WTPZ22 TJSJ 040830
TCMEP2

DEPRESION TROPICAL BORIS PRONSTICO / ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP022014
0900 UTC MIERCOLES 04 de junio 2014

CAMBIOS EN LOS RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA DEJADO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
ADVERTENCIAS .

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

NO HAY COSTERA RELOJES O ADVERTENCIA EN EFECTO .

CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL LOCALIZADA CERCA DE 16,2 N 93.9W AT 04/0900Z
POSICIN EXACTA dentro de 40 NM

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL HACIA EL NORTE O 360 GRADOS A 4 KT

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA 1.003 MB
Vientos mximos sostenidos de 30 KT CON RAFAGAS HASTA 40 KT .
VIENTOS Y OLEAJE varan mucho en cada cuadrante. RADIOS EN NUTICA
MILES son los radios MAYOR SE ESPERA EN CUALQUIER LUGAR EN QUE CUADRANTE .

REPETIR … CENTRO LOCALIZADO CERCA 16,2 N 93.9W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTRO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA 16.0N 93.9W

Pronstico vlido 04/1800Z 17.0N 93.7W … POST-TROP/REMNT BAJA
MAX WIND 25 KT … RAFAGAS 35 KT .

Pronstico vlido 05/0600Z 18.0N 93.5W … POST-TROP/REMNT BAJA
MAX WIND 20 KT … RAFAGAS 30 KT .

05/1800Z VLIDO PRONSTICO … DISIPADO
SOLICITUD DE 3 INFORMES DE BUQUES POR HORA EN 300 MILLAS DE 16,2 N 93.9W

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA EN 04/1500Z

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

PassageWeather es una pgina web de tiempo para navegar GRATIS : http://www.passageweather.com/index.htm?http % 3A / / http://www.passageweather.com / maps / npacific / mappage.htm

No use cualquier informacin en este sitio para las decisiones de vida o muerte . Toda la informacin se concibe como complementario a las fuentes oficiales. Por favor refirase a la pgina web la agencia meteorolgica / oficial del gobierno de su pas por las advertencias locales, avisos y boletines .

Socorro/ Clarion/ Mexico: Hurricane AMANDA (CAT3) 271000Z nr 14.2N 112.2W, moving NNW at 4 knots(JTWC) Restrengthens unexpectedly(NHC) – Updated 270514 1108Z

HURRICANE AMANDA (CAT3)

Clarion, Socorro & Mexico beware!

…AMANDA RESTRENGTHENS UNEXPECTEDLY…(NHC)

(Maritime section always at bottom of page)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

WTPZ31 KNHC 270845
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014

…AMANDA RESTRENGTHENS UNEXPECTEDLY…
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.2N 112.2W
ABOUT 620 MI…995 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…954 MB…28.17 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. AMANDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/H…AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY TONIGHT…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH…205 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AMANDA IS
A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO RESUME SOON AND THEN CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND AMANDA SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES…150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB…28.17 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

 

MEXICO

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0114.gif

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 271000

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 01E (AMANDA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 01E (AMANDA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
270600Z — NEAR 14.0N 112.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 340 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 112.1W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 14.6N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 15.1N 112.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z — 15.8N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 16.4N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 17.5N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 17.5N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 17.0N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
271000Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 112.2W.
HURRICANE 01E (AMANDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 270600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271600Z, 272200Z, 280400Z
AND 281000Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME

 

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

AXPZ20 KNHC 270930
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N…EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…
HURRICANE AMANDA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 112.2W AT 27/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 540 NM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING
NNW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE IS OCCURRING
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 08N91W TO 12N103W…AND
FROM 10N114W TO 1009 LOW PRESSURE NEAR 08N127W TO 05N133W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N133W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N
BETWEEN 92W AND 96W…FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 103W AND
109W…AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 117W AND 125W.

…DISCUSSION…
ASIDE FROM THE INTRIGUE OF HURRICANE AMANDA…THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH REGARDS TO ANY SIGNIFICANT
AREAS OF WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT. HOWEVER…OUTSIDE OF THE
INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE AMANDA…TWO AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
EXISTS…ONE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER WATERS AND THE OTHER TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AMANDA. THE AREA ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
IS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 20 KT AND
THE ASSOCIATED NE WIND WAVES ALONG WITH SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL
SWELL WHICH EVENTUALLY MIXES WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL GENERATED
FROM AMANDA. THE MIXED SWELL GENERATES AN AREA OF 8 FT SEAS
GENERALLY N OF 29N BETWEEN 123W AND 126W AT 27/0600 UTC THAT
EXPANDS TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 120W BY EARLY
THURSDAY TO A RANGE OF MAXIMUM SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT. THE OTHER
AREA OF SEAS ABOVE 8 FT IS GENERATED FROM CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW
SWELL COMBINING WITH N-NW SWELL EMANATING FROM AMANDA.

OTHERWISE…AMANDA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO
NEAR 17N97W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PREVALENT
FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION N OF 05N TO 25N BETWEEN 96W AND
116W…VERY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
AMANDA. TO THE NW OF AMANDA…AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 24N125W PROVIDING A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR TO EFFECT THE STRENGTH OF THE HURRICANE.
HOWEVER…THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MOVING IN OVER THE SW CONUS BY THURSDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY /

WTPZ21 KNHC 270845
TCMEP1

HURRICANE AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
0900 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.2W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.2W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 112.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.6N 112.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT…GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT… 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.1N 112.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT… 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.8N 111.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT… 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.4N 111.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 112.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:http://www.passageweather.com/maps/npacific/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins

UK: 2,400 teens prepare for annual 2-day Ten Tors Challenge/Jubilee Challenge across Dartmoor – Published 050514 1720z

Image from Ten Tors website

Micronesia/ Marianas/ Iwo Jima: Tropical Depression TAPAH (06W) 020600Z nr 25N 145E, moving NE slowly (JMA) – Updated 020514 1318z

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1405 (TAPAH)(JMA RSMC Tokyo )

TYPHOON TAPAH (06W)(JTWC)

TYPHOON TAPAH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN – NWS GUAM

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satelitte (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

 

WWJP25 RJTD 020600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 42N 149E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1000 HPA
AT 44N 128E MANCHURIA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 44N 128E TO 43N 131E 43N 134E.
COLD FRONT FROM 44N 128E TO 41N 127E 40N 126E 37N 125E 34N 122E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 46N 150E
51N 157E 55N 164E 52N 172E 40N 173E 40N 163E 34N 151E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 54N 163E ALMOST STATIONARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 25N 145E NE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 28N 127E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 35N 170E EAST 15 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

GUAM

Tropical Depression TAPAH (06W) -
Forecast Track and Uncertainty Graphic,
Full-Scale Image

NO active tropical cyclones at this time
Fri, 02 May 2014 22:57:04 ChST

Tropical Cyclones
Guam Alerts
Micronesian Alerts

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

None

Other Reports

Near real-time animated map of global wind and weather:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-214.70,14.53,1071

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-213.73,11.50,567

MARITIME

WWJP25 RJTD 020600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 42N 149E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1000 HPA
AT 44N 128E MANCHURIA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 44N 128E TO 43N 131E 43N 134E.
COLD FRONT FROM 44N 128E TO 41N 127E 40N 126E 37N 125E 34N 122E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 46N 150E
51N 157E 55N 164E 52N 172E 40N 173E 40N 163E 34N 151E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 54N 163E ALMOST STATIONARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 25N 145E NE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 28N 127E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 35N 170E EAST 15 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
METAREA XI

Specialist weather for mariners: passageweather.com

Marianas (Image: wikipedia.org)

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US: Arkansas and Oklahoma tornadoes: Death toll rises to 17 as forecasters warn more are on the way – Published 280414 1400z

“Forecasters warn further twisters are on the way after a violent start to the US tornado season left at least 17 people dead

U.S. Severe Weather Alerts and Tornado Warnings (link)

At least 17 people have been killed and many more injured in the United States after a powerful storm system saw tornadoes rip through Arkansas and Oklahoma.

A dozen or more twisters tore through central and southern parts of the country, decimating buildings, overturning trucks and bringing down trees and power lines.

National Guard troops have been mobilised in the worst hit areas and rescue workers have been searching debris for victims, as forecasters warned more twisters were on their way.

Storm Locations
A tornado in Arkansas killed 16 people on its 30-mile destructive path

Tornadoes also hit in Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri and Louisiana, causing damage and injuries.

President Barack Obama, who is currently in the Philippines, sent his condolences to those affected and pledged any assistance necessary.

“Your country will be there to help you recover and rebuild, as long as it takes,” he said.

The Arkansas Department of Emergency Management said a large tornado which formed outside Little Rock killed 16 people as it carved a 30-mile path of destruction through the state.

It was the largest of several tornadoes created by a powerful storm system.

Another twister which hit the town of Quapaw, Oklahoma, left one person dead and at least six people injured.

Arkansas tornado
A tornado obliterated homes in Mayflower, Arkansas

It then continued into Kansas, destroying up to 70 homes and injuring 25 people in the city of Baxter Springs.

In Mayflower, Arkansas, one person was killed and 45 homes were destroyed as a tornado swept through.

City alderman Will Elder said: “It’s extremely hazardous here right now. The power lines are down, roads are blocked and they (emergency services) will have to proceed with caution.”

James Firestone, mayor of the Arkansas town of Vilonia said: “It’s chaos right now.”

He said the downtown area “seems like it’s completely levelled”, adding: “There are a few buildings partially standing, gas lines are spewing and fire lines are down. We’ve had some casualties.”

Firefighters from nearby cities, as well as National Guard troops, were heading to the town to help, with the county sheriff’s office reporting a “mass casualty situation”.

Homes in Arkansas have been destroyed by a tornado
The deadly twisters have devastated neighbourhoods

Representative Tim Griffin said: “Tonight, I walked around what was only hours earlier a thriving neighbourhood that is now gone.

“An entire neighbourhood of 50 or so homes has been destroyed.

“Many homes are completely gone except the foundation and there is more devastation like this in other parts of Arkansas.”

Writing on Twitter, Arkansas governor Mike Beebe added: “It’s been a truly awful night for many families, neighbourhoods and communities, but Arkansans always step up to help each other recover.”” – Sky News

A number of tornado warnings were issued. Forecasters are only able to give about 13 minutes warning, although more general tornado watches are issued earlier.
See also:

https://www.facebook.com/GoatysNews

U.S. Severe Weather Alerts and Tornado Warnings(link)

 

Videos

Arkansas and Oklahoma tornadoes: Death toll rises to 17

(Video credit: ITN)

Published on Apr 28, 2014
At least 17 people have died after tornadoes ripped through the southern and central United States. The majority of the victims were in several suburbs of Little Rock in Arkansas. Homes and buildings were destroyed and entire were neighbourhoods were reduced to rubble. A desperate rescue operation is now underway to reach survivors, and local residents have to try and rebuild their lives. Report by Sarah Kerr.

At least 17 killed by deadly tornadoes in U.S.

(Video credit: ARIRANG NEWS)

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Micronesia/ Yap/ Caroline Islands/ Philippines: Tropical Depression 98W 200600Z nr 10N 136E, moving W slowly (JMA) – Updated 200414 1908z

Tropical Depression (98W)

POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM (JTWC)

Yap & Caroline Islands be aware

Tropical Depression set to impact the Philippines on Tuesday (See video below) – Westernpacificweather

Japan Meteorological agency

 

WWJP25 RJTD 201200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 201200.
WARNING VALID 211200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 976 HPA
AT 45N 169E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 46N 169E TO 47N 174E 45N 176E.
WARM FRONT FROM 45N 176E TO 42N 179W 36N 174W.
COLD FRONT FROM 45N 176E TO 35N 174E 28N 164E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 30N 167E 37N 175E
45N 176E 42N 180E 30N 180E 30N 167E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 30N 129E EAST SLOWLY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 136E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 03N 166E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 35N 122E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 37N 147E EAST 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N 112E TO 26N 123E 30N 129E 28N 135E 26N
138E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg

ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZAPR2014//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7N
139.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 138.5E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS TRACKING WESTWARD. THE MSI LOOP
ALSO SHOWS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES HIGHER WINDS (15-20 KNOTS) ALONG
THE WESTERN FLANK ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND
LARGELY RAIN-FLAGGED; A WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH SHOWS 5-15
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CAUSING THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC.
NUMERIC MODELS HAVE SCALED DOWN THE FORECAST INTENSITIES ON THIS
SYSTEM TO BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. //
NNNN

Other Reports

Tropical Depression East of the Philippines – WestPacWx

 

Taking a look at the Tropical Depression set to impact the Philippines on Tuesday – Westernpacificweather

Near real-time animated map of global wind and weather:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-231.56,10.61,2461

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-213.73,11.50,130

News Reports

Two LPAs moving toward Philippines

“One of two low-pressure areas (LPAs) moving toward the Philippine territory is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone within 24 to 36 hours.

According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), one of the LPAs was located 220 kilometers (km) east-northeast of Surigao City, while the other one was spotted 1,220 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar, as of mid-Sunday.

The weather disturbance near Surigao City will bring cloudy skies with moderate to occasional heavy rains and thunderstorms over Eastern Visayas, particularly Eastern and Northern Samar.

PAGASA advised residents in these areas of possible flash floods and landslides. It also advised fishermen and seafarers of moderate to occasional rough seas over the Eastern and Central Visayas.

Weather forecaster Gladys Saludes said the LPA is not expected to intensify into a tropical depression as it is already near land.

Meanwhile, the LPA east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar, which is seen to enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) possibly Sunday evening or early Monday, has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression, Saludes said.

Should it enter PAR and intensify into a tropical depression, it will be locally called ‘Ester,’ the fifth tropical cyclone to enter the country’s vicinity this year and the second this month.

Based on the latest forecast models, Saludes noted that the weather disturbance could make landfall over Bicol Region or Samar area by Wednesday afternoon or evening.

“Rains due to the tropical cyclone may prevail over Eastern Visayas starting Tuesday, and over Bicol Region and Samar including Southern Luzon by Wednesday,” she said.

In other parts of the country, the warm and moist air coming from the Pacific Ocean called the easterlies will affect the provinces of Northern Luzon.

Metro Manila and the rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening.” by Ellalyn De Vera
April 20, 2014

MARITIME

WWJP25 RJTD 201200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 201200.
WARNING VALID 211200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 976 HPA
AT 45N 169E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 46N 169E TO 47N 174E 45N 176E.
WARM FRONT FROM 45N 176E TO 42N 179W 36N 174W.
COLD FRONT FROM 45N 176E TO 35N 174E 28N 164E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 30N 167E 37N 175E
45N 176E 42N 180E 30N 180E 30N 167E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 30N 129E EAST SLOWLY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 136E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 03N 166E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 35N 122E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 37N 147E EAST 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N 112E TO 26N 123E 30N 129E 28N 135E 26N
138E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA XI

Specialist weather for mariners – passageweather.com

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