Oman/ Yemen/ Somalia/ Arabian Sea: Severe Cyclonic Storm KYARR 04A 291500Z position near 19.5N 62.9E, moving NW 02kt (JTWC) – Updated 29 Oct 2019 1955Z (GMT/UTC)

SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR

KYARR is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (TSR UCL London data)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 45 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Tropical Cyclone 04A (Kyarr) Warning #20
Issued at 29/1500Z

io0419-2

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
291200Z — NEAR 19.5N 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 63.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 19.6N 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 19.4N 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z — 19.0N 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 18.3N 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 17.0N 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 14.3N 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 11.8N 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 62.9E.
29OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND,
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A WEAK EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 291158Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED LOWER AT
105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5 (102
KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW, CONSISTENT WITH A 291230Z CIMSS SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS. TC 04A IS TRACKING SLOWLY WITHIN A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL
RIDGES (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE WESTERN STR WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DEGRADE WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36
DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW AND
POTENTIALLY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
MODERATE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
NNNN

 

 

 

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICALCYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO.38

FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHITO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN) METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)NATIONAL CENTRE FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY No. 38 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 1700UTC OF 29.10.2019 BASED ON 1500 UTC OF 29.10.2019.

SUB:(A) EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘KYARR’ (PRONOUNCED AS KYARR) OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL & NORTH ARABIAN SEA

.(B) WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKSHADWEEP, MALDIVES& ADJOINING COMORIN AREA

(A) EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘KYARR’ (PRONOUNCED AS KYARR) OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL& NORTH ARABIAN SEA

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM‘KYARR’OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL & NORTH ARABIAN SEA MOVED SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 04KMPH DURING PAST 06 HRS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1500HRS UTC OF 29THOCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 19.5°N AND LONGITUDE 62.9°E,ABOUT 1040 KM WEST-NORTHWESTOF MUMBAI (MAHARASHTRA), 990KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN) AND 440KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 30THOCTOBERMORNING,RE-CURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEREAFTER AND MOVE TOWARDS GULF OF ADENOFF SOUTH OMAN-YEMEN COASTS DURING SUBSEQUENT 3 DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE 0600UTCOF 30THOCTOBER AND FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY THE 0000UTCOF 31STOCTOBER.

FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:DATE/TIME(IST)POSITION(LAT.0N/LONG.0E)MAXIMUMSUSTAINEDSURFACEWINDSPEED(KMPH)CATEGORYOFCYCLONICDISTURBANCE29.10.19/150019.5/62.9180-190 GUSTING TO 210EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM29.10.19/180019.6/62.7170-180GUSTING TO 200EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM30.10.19/000019.6/62.3160-170GUSTING TO 190EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM30.10.19/060019.5/61.9145-155GUSTING TO 170VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM30.10.19/120019.4/61.6130-140 GUSTING TO 155VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM31.10.19/000019.1/61.1110-120 GUSTING TO 130SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM31.10.19/120018.6/60.490-100 GUSTING TO 110SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM01.11.19/000017.7/59.370-80 GUSTING TO 90CYCLONIC STORM01.11.19/120016.7/58.260-70 GUSTING TO 80CYCLONIC STORM02.11.19/000015.7/57.050-60 GUSTING TO 70DEEP DEPRESSION02.11.19/120014.7/55.940-50GUSTING TO 60DEPRESSION03.11.19/000013.7/54.825-35 GUSTING TO 45DEPRESSIONREMARKS:AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 1500 UTC OF 29THOCTOBER, 2019, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 5.5/CI 5.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIES OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT 17.50NTO 21.00N AND LONG 61.00E TO 64.50E. THE MINIMUM CTT IS MINUS 93DEG C.THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO 130KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943HPA. THE SEACONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.AT 1500 UTC A SHIP LOCATED NEAR LAT. 16.0°N / 64.5°E REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 1008.8HPAAND WIND 1900/25 KNOTS.THE MJO LIES IN THE PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT WILL REMAIN IN THE SAME PHASE DURING NEXT 3 DAYS AND ENTER INTO PHASE 4 WITH AMPLITDUE LESS THAN 1 THEREAFTER. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ABOUT 250X10-5 SEC-1TOTHESOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30X10-5S-1TO THE SOUTHEASTOF THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 20X10-5S-1TO THE SOUTHEAST OFTHE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE(15-20KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER OVER MOST PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA IS AROUND 27-28°C WHILE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE, IT IS WARMER(29-30°C). TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTEROVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEAS IS 20-40 KJ/CM2WHILE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, IT IS 50-80 KJ/CM2.TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERIES INDICATE CONTINUEDREDUCTION IN WARM AND DRY AIR INCURSION IN THE SOUTHWESTERNSECTORSOF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS TAKING PLACE IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS. ALL THESE ENVIRONMENTAL, DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS INDICATE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 19°N. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BYTHEWINDS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE LOCATED TO THE EASTOF THE SYSTEM.AS A RESULT, IT IS CONTINUING TO MOVEWEST-NORTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY BEING IN THE COL REGION. ITWILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THEANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER ARABIAN PENINSULA, LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF SYSTEMBY 0000 UTC OF 30THOCTOBER.SUBSEQUENTLY THE SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDSAND VERY LIKELY TO MOVE TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN OFF SOUTH OMAN-YEMEN COASTS THEREAFTER.MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THE ABOVE INFERENCE.

WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKSHADWEEP, MALDIVES& ADJOINING COMORIN AREATHE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKSHADWEEP, MALDIVES& ADJOINING COMORIN AREAPERSISTS. IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION OVER LAKSHADWEEP-MALDIVES AREAS AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS.

(V R DURAI)SCIENTIST-F, RSMC, NEW DELH

Source: National Bulletin


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NO TSR Storm Alert

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

K29 Doc R

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

WINDY

https://www.windy.com/?18.663,61.875,5

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

India

WTIN01 DEMS 291800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 29 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM\U92ADYARR\U4E39VER WESTCENTRAL
AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL AND NORTH ARABIAN SEA MOVED SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 2 KTS DURING PAST 06 HRS AND LAY
CENTRED AT 1200 HRS UTC OF 29 TH OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 DEG
N AND LONGITUDE 63.1 DEG E, ABOUT 1020 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI
(MAHARASHTRA), 990 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN) AND 460 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 30 TH OCTOBER MORNING,RE-CURVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEREAFTER AND MOVE TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN OFF
SOUTH OMAN-YEMEN COASTS DURING SUBSEQUENT 3 DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO WEAKEN INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE 0600 UTC OF 30
TH OCTOBER AND FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY THE 0000 UTC
OF 31 ST OCTOBER (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO
130 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/10/30 AT 00 UTC 19.6 N / 62.3 E MAX WIND 90 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/10/30 AT 12 UTC 19.4 N / 61.6 E MAX WIND 80 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER COMORIN AREA AND ADJOINING
EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN NOW LIES OVER LAKSHADWEEP-MALDIVES AREAS AND
ADJOINING COMORIN AREA. THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPTO MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE
INTO A DEPRESSION OVER LAKSHADWEEP-MALDIVES AREAS AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 24HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS AND INTENSIFY INTO DEEP
DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 70 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N: CYCLONIC
20/30 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)E OF 65 DEG E 1.5-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO
THE E OF 70 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 66 DEG E: CYCLONIC 85/90 KTS (.)
2)E OF 66 DEG E : NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 10/20 KTS TO THE S
OF 14 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: OVER 14 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 65 DEG E:CYCLONIC 70/75 KTS (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E: CYCLONIC 30/35 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 6 D EG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA VARIABLE 03 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG N: CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 87 DEG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

===========================================================================================================

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Oman/ Arabian Sea: Severe Cyclonic Storm HIKAA 23/1500Z near 20.2N 62.9E, moving W 10kt (JTWC) – Published 23 Sep 2019 1600Z (GMT/UTC)

 Severe Cyclonic Storm/Tropical Cyclone HIKAA 03A (was 96A)

Cyclonic Storm ‘HIKAA’ intensified into a Severe Cyclonic Storm over northeast and adjoining northwest and central Arabian Sea….

…..It is very likely to move nearly westwards and cross Oman coast between latitude 19°N and 20°N during early hours of 25th September 2019 as a Cyclonic Storm….(RSMC New Delhi)

Expected to become a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by  24 Sep, 0:00 UTC (TSR UCL London data)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 17 FEET (JTWC)

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Tropical Cyclone 03A (Hikaa) Warning #04
Issued at 23/1500Z

io0319

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (HIKAA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (HIKAA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 20.2N 63.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 63.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 20.3N 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 20.1N 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 19.7N 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 19.4N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 62.9E.
23SEP19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (HIKAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265
NM EAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A MIDGET SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEVELOPING EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN A 231122Z SSMIS
91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THIS SSMIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A
75NM DIAMETER CONVECTIVE CORE, TYPICAL OF MIDGET SYSTEMS. TC 03A HAS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 30 KNOTS AT
22/12Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T3.5-4.0 (55-65 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS ROBUST
EQUATORWARD AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HINDERED BY EASTERLY
CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT (10-15 KNOTS) AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER A REGION OF WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD, STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
ARABIAN SEA. THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A VISIBLE EYE STRUCTURE,
COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK SUGGESTS A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ONCE OVER LAND NEAR TAU 30, TC HIKAA WILL RAPIDLY
ERODE DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF TERRAIN AND LACK OF
UNDERLYING OCEAN DRIVEN CONVECTION. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE ON THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, LENDING TO OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z,
240900Z AND 241500Z.//

NNNN

 

BULLETIN NO. : 08(ARB/02/2019)

TIME OF ISSUE: 1730HOURS IST

DATED: 23.09.2019

FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (FAX NO. 24643965/24699216/24623220)

Sub: Cyclonic Storm ‘HIKAA’ intensified into a Severe Cyclonic Storm over northeast and adjoining northwest and central Arabian Sea

The Cyclonic Storm ‘HIKAA’ over northeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian sea moved nearly westwards with a speed of 26kmph during past06 hours and intensified into a Severe Cyclonic Storm over northeast and adjoining northwest and central Arabian Sea and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 23rdSeptember,2019near latitude 20.2°N and longitude 64.2°E, about 640km west-southwestof Veraval (Gujarat), 600km southwestofKarachi(Pakistan) and 550km east-southeast of Masirah (Oman).

It is likely to intensify further during next 12hours and weaken gradually from 24thmorning. It is very likely to move nearly westwards and cross Oman coast between latitude 19°N and 20°N during early hours of 25th September 2019 as a Cyclonic Storm.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table: Date/Time(IST)Position(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)Category of cyclonic disturbance23.09.19/143020.2/64.290-100gusting to 110Severe Cyclonic Storm23.09.19/173020.2/63.7100-110gusting to 120Severe Cyclonic Storm23.09.19/233020.1/62.6110-120 gusting to 130Severe Cyclonic Storm24.09.19/053020.0/61.5100-110gusting to 120Severe Cyclonic Storm24.09.19/113019.9/60.490-100 gusting to 110Severe Cyclonic Storm24.09.19/233019.7/58.270-80 gusting to 90Cyclonic Storm25.09.19/113019.5/56.045-55 gusting to 65

Depression Warnings

:(i) Wind warningGalewind,speed reaching 90-100kmph gusting to 110kmphvery likely to prevail over northeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea, whichis likely to decrease thereafter India Meteorological DepartmentEarth System Science Organisation(Ministry of Earth Sciences)

Spatial rainfall distribution: Isolated: <25%, A few: 26-50%, Many: 51-75%, Most: 76-100%Rainfall amount (mm): Heavy rain: 64.5 –115.5, Very heavy rain: 115.6–204.4, Extremely heavy rain: 204.5 or more.becoming55-65kmph gusting to 75kmph by 24thmorning

.It is likely to be galewindspeed reaching 60-70kmph gusting to 80kmph,over northwest and adjoining westcentral Arabian Seaand is likely to increase gradually becoming110-120kmph gusting to 130kmph from 23rdmidnightfor subsequent 06hours.It will gradually decrease thereafterbecoming 70-80kmph gusting to 90kmph by 24thmidnightalong & off Oman coast.

(ii) Sea conditionThe sea condition is very likely to be very highover northeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea during next 12 hours and high to very rough during subsequent 12 hours.

Sea conditions will be very rough to high over northwest and adjoining westcentral Arabian Sea during next 06hours and very high during subsequent 12hours.It will become high to very rough and improve thereafter.

(iii)Fishermen Warning

The fishermen are advised not to venture into northeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea till 24thmorningand into northwest & adjoining westcentral Arabian Sea till 25thmorning.The next bulletinwill be issued at 2030hrs IST of 23rdSeptember,2019.

(Neetha K Gopal)Scientist-E, RSMC, New Delhi

OMAN

Alert(1) Weather over Arabian Sea Classification: Tropical Storm Issuing time: 3:00 PMLST Date: 23rdSeptember2019 Issue number: 3 Latest Weather charts and the analysis of the National Multi Hazards Early Warning Center indicate that the Tropical Storm ‘Hikaa’is located over Central Arabian Sea at longitude 64.1oE and latitude 20.3oNwithestimatedsurface wind speed around the centerbetween34and40knots (60to 75Km/hr). The storm is about 540km away from Masirah Island.The closest convective cloudsbandassociate with the system is about 320 km from Masirah Island. The tropical storm continues to movetowards the coasts of Al-Sharqiya and Al-Wusta Governorates. Numerical Weather predictions indicatepossible-gradual weakening of the stormwhile approaching the coastal areas of the Sultanate. The direct effect of the storm isexpected to reach Governorates of SouthernAl Sharqiya and Al Wusta by tomorrow evening (Tuesday 24thSeptember 2019) associated with isolated heavy rain with amount ranges between 30 and 60 millimeters andfresh winds ranges between 25 and 35 knots. Rough sea state is expected over the coastal areas of South Al-Sharqiya and Al-Wusta with maximum wave height between 3 and6meters with chances of sea water inundation over low level coastal areas. The sea state will be moderate over the rest of the coastal areas with maximum wave height between 1.5 and2.5 meters.The Public Authority for Civil Aviation advices the public to take precaution and stay away from low lying areas, avoiding crossing wadis. It also advices the fishermen and sea goers to avoid venture into the sea and follow latest and updated bulletin from the National Multi Hazard Early Warning Centre.Note: The advisory will beupdated every 24 hours.

Source: http://www.met.gov.om/opencms/export/sites/default/dgman/en/home/

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 23 Sep, 2019 6:00 GMT

 

Tropical Storm HIKAA is currently located near 20.2 N 64.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). HIKAA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Oman
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mursays (20.4 N, 58.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

DocR Hikka

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 230900

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 23 SEPTEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING (.)

THE CYCLONIC STORM HIKAA OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA MOVED NEARLY WESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 11 KTS DURING
PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 23 RD
SEPTEMBER, 2019 OVER THE SAME REGION NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 65.0 DEG E, ABOUT 560 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (42909),
GUJARAT (INDIA),560 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI (41780), PAKISTAN
AND 630 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (41288), OMAN. IT IS LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY FROM 24
TH MORNING. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY WESTWARDS AND CROSS
OMAN COAST BETWEEN LATITUDE 19 DEG N AND 20 DEG N AROUND 2100 UTC OF
24 TH SEPTEMBER 2019 AS A DEEP DEPRESSION (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KTS GUSTING TO
50 KTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS HIGHAROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/09/23 AT 18 UTC 20.1 N / 62.9 E MAX WIND 55 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/09/24 AT 06 UTC 19.9 N / 60.5 E MAX WIND 45 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 62 DEG E:SW/W-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE
E OF 76 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 62 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTEREDR RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 62 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 62 DEG E:SW-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E TO W OF 70 DEG E: ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA:SW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 4
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 66 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTEREDRA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 66 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 16 DEG N: CYCLONIC 45/55 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:SW-LY 15/25 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E OF 64
DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 17 DEG N AND E OF 60 DEG E:WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 17 DEG N AND E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 16 DEG N: 6.0-10.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 17 DEG N: CYCLONIC 20/30 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 16 DEG N TO W OF 64 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO W OF 64 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N: 3.5-5.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 88 DEG E SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
2)REST AREA: SE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: W OF 90 DEG E WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: W OF 90 DEG E 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 88 DEG E SE-LY 05/10 KTS
BEC S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC E-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF 5
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)W OF 92 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)W OF 92 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: S/SE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SE-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE W OF 90 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

OMAN MARINE FORECAST FOR COASTAL WATERS

ISSUED AT 1800 ON 23/09/2019

AND VALID FROM 23/1800 TO 24/0600 UTC

REGIONAL SYNOPSIS: THERMAL LOW AREA OVER ARABIAN PENINSULA.

WEATHER: CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE COASTAL

ARAS OF ARABIAN SEA WITH CHANCE OF ISOLATED RAIN

AND MAINLY CLEAR ALONG THE REST OF THE COASTAL

AREAS.

WARNING: NIL.

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS & VISIBILITY DETAILS FOLLOWS:

MUSANDAM WEST MUSANDAM EAST

WIND: VRB 02-06 KT WIND: SE 05-12 KT

SEA: SLT 0.75 M SEA: SLT 0.75 M

SWELL: W/SW 0.3 M SWELL: SE 0.3 M

VISIBILITY: 3 – 4 NM VISIBILITY: 3 – 4 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

BAYAH-MUSCAT MUSCAT VICINITY

WIND: VRB 03-07 KT WIND: VRB 02-06 KT

SEA: SLT 1.0 M SEA: SLT 0.75 M

SWELL: E 0.5 M SWELL: SE 0.5 M

VISIBILITY: 3 – 4 NM VISIBILITY: 3 – 4 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

MUSCAT-SUR SUR-MASIRAH

WIND: VRB 03-08 KT WIND: SW 07-16 KT

SEA: SLT 1.0 M SEA: SLT/MOD 1.5 M

SWELL: SE 1.0 KT SWELL: SE 1.0 M

VISIBILITY: 2 – 3 NM VISIBILITY: 2 – 3 NM

WEATHER: CHANCE OF CLOUDS ADVECTION.WEATHER: CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CHANCE OF RAIN.

MASIRAH-MADRAKAH MADRAKAH-ALJAZIR

WIND: SW 07-16 KT WIND: SW 10-15 KT

SEA: SLT/MOD 1.5 M SEA: SLT/MOD 1.5 M

SWELL: SW 1.0 M SWELL: SW 1.0 M

VISIBILITY: 2 – 3 NM VISIBILITY: 2 – 3 NM

WEATHER: CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CHANCE OF RAIN.WEATHER: CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CHANCE OF RAIN.

ALJAZIR-SADAH SADAH-DHALKUT

WIND: SW 10-20 KT WIND: SW 05-12 KT

SEA: SLT/MOD 1.5 M SEA: SLT/MOD 1.5 M

SWELL: SW 1.5 M SWELL: SW 1.5 M

VISIBILITY: 2 – 3 NM VISIBILITY: 2 – 3 NM

WEATHER: CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.WEATHER: CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS:

CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF ARABIAN SEA

WITH CHANCE OF RAIN OCCASIONALLY THUNDERSHOWERS OVER ALSHARQIYA AND

AL-WUSTA COASTS.

WARNING:

NIL.

PREPARED BY FORECASTER: AL-MAQBALI – FORECASTER TELEPHONE: 24354661

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

Yemen/ Oman/ Arabian Sea: Tropical Deep Depression LUBAN 140900Z near 15.9N 51.7°E, moving WNW ~8.09kt/15kmph (RSMC New Delhi) – Updated 14 Oct 2018 1612Z (GMT/UTC)

Deep Depression LUBAN

Cyclonic Storm, ‘LUBAN’ weakened into a deep depression over Yemen – IMD

Impacting Yemen & adjoining areas of Oman, Gulf of Aden and westcentral Arabian Sea

INDIA

 

 

IMD

India Meteorological Department
Earth System Science Organisation
(Ministry of Earth Sciences


BULLETIN NO. : 61 (ARB 04/2018)
TIME OF ISSUE: 1630 HOURS IST DATED: 14.10.2018
FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (FAX NO. 24643965/24699216/24623220)
TO: CONTROL ROOM, NDM, MINISTRY OF HOME AFFAIRS (FAX.NO. 23093750)
CONTROL ROOM NDMA (FAX.NO. 26701729)
CABINET SECRETARIAT (FAX.NO.23012284, 23018638)
PS TO HON’BLE MINISTER FOR S & T AND EARTH SCIENCES (FAX NO.23316745)
SECRETARY, MOES, (FAX NO. 24629777)
H.Q. (INTEGRATED DEFENCE STAFF AND CDS) (FAX NO. 23005137/23005147)
DIRECTOR GENERAL, DOORDARSHAN (23421101)
DIRECTOR GENERAL, AIR (23421105, 23421219)
PIB MOES (FAX NO. 23389042)
UNI (FAX NO. 23355841)
D.G. NATIONAL DISASTER RESPONSE FORCE (NDRF) (FAX NO. 24363261)
DIRECTOR, PUNCTUALITY, INDIAN RAILWAYS (FAX NO. 23388503)
CHIEF SECRETARY, TAMILNADU (FAX NO. 044-25672304)
CHIEF SECRETARY, KERALA (FAX NO. 0471-2327176)
ADMINISTRATOR, LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS (FAX NO. 04896-262184)
ADMINISTRATOR, UNION TERRITORY OF DAMAN & DIU AND DADRA NAGAR HAVELI (0260-2230775)
CHIEF SECRETARY, KARNATAKA (FAX NO. 080-22258913)
CHIEF SECRETARY, GOA (FAX NO. 0832-2415201)
CHIEF SECRETARY, MAHARASHTRA (FAX NO. 022- 22028594)
CHIEF SECRETARY, GUJARAT (FAX NO. 079-23250305)
Sub: Cyclonic Storm, ‘LUBAN’ weakened into a deep depression over Yemen
The Cyclonic Storm ‘LUBAN’ over coastal Yemen moved further west-northwestwards during
past 06 hours with a speed of 15 kmph, weakened into a deep depression and lay centered at 1430
hrs IST of today, the 14th October 2018 over Yemen near latitude 15.9°N and longitude 51.7°E, about
40 km west-southwest of Al-Ghaidah (Yemen). It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and
weaken further into a depression during next 6 hours.
(i) Wind warning
Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is very likely over coastal areas of
east Yemen & adjoining areas of Oman, Gulf of Aden and westcentral Arabian Sea during next
06 hours and it is very likely to decrease thereafter.
(ii) Sea condition
The sea condition will be rough to very rough over westcentral Arabian Sea along & off south
Oman and Yemen coasts and also over adjoining areas of Gulf of Aden during next 06 hours. It
will improve rapidly thereafter.
(iii) Fishermen Warning
The fishermen are advised not to venture into westcentral Arabian Sea along & off south Oman
and Yemen coasts and also into Gulf of Aden during next 06 hours.
The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST 14th October, 2018.
(Naresh Kumar)
Scientist-E, RSMC, New Delhi
Copy to: CRS, Pune/ RSMC Guwahati/ ACWC Chennai/ Kolkata/ Mumbai/MC Goa/ Thiruvanathapuram/ Bengaluru/ CWC Ahmedabad.

SOURCE (.PDF File): http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

OMAN

Alert No. (6)
Tropical System in Arabian Sea
Category: Tropical Storm (Luban)
Issuing time: 11 pm
Date: 13th October 2018
Issuing No: 10
Due to potential of heavy rainfall accompanied by fresh winds and probability of flash floods over Governorate of Dhofar, The Public Authority for Civil Aviation advices to take fully precautions and to avoid the low lying areas ,wadi`s and riding the sea during this period and to follow its latest weather bulletins.
Latest updates:
Center of tropical storm (Luban): lat. 15.0 N and Long 53.4 E
Distance from Salalah city: 240 km
Wind speed around the center: 45 to 55 Knots (83 – 102 Km/h)
The tropical storm (Luban) continues moving west towards Yemen’s coasts. Dhofar Governorate is likely continuing to be affected by heavy rain, thundershower at times on Sunday, and 14th of October 2018 with easterly to southeasterly fresh wind of 30-45 Knots (56-83 km/h) and gusting to gale wind over mountainous areas. The sea continues to be rough state with maximum wave of 6 to 8 meters.
The chances for indirect impact on the southern parts of al-Wusta Governorate continues with scattered rain and easterly to southeasterly moderate winds of 20 to 25 Knots (37-46 km/h) on Sunday , 14th of October 2018.
The alert will be updated every 12 hours.

download

 

METEOSAT Imagery – Synoptic

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 05A (Luban) Warning #26 Final Warning
Issued at 14/0900Z

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140851ZOCT2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPCIAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
140600Z — NEAR 15.8N 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 52.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 16.2N 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 51.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
2.THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF (WTIO31 PGTW 140900).//
NNNN

Other

DrR Yemen L

(Image: @RoshinRowjee )

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 140900

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 14 OCTOBER 2018.

PART:-I NIL
PART:-II

THE CYCLONIC STORM LUBAN OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING PAST 06 HOURS WITH A SPEED OF 17 KMPH
AND CROSSED YEMEN COAST NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 52.2
DEG E ABOUT 30 KM SOUTH OF AL-GHAIDAH DURING 1100 – 1130 HRS IST OF
TODAY WITH AN ESTIMATED SUSTAINED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 70-80 KMPH
GUSTING TO 90 KMPH. IT LAY CENTERED AT 1130 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE
14TH OCTOBER 2018 OVER COASTAL YEMEN NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 52.1 DEG E, ABOUT 20 KM SOUTH OF AL-GHAIDAH (YEMEN). IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION
DURING NEXT 6 HOURS.

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 72 DEG E TO S OF 4 DEG N
SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 54 DEG E (.)
2)W OF 72 DEG E TO N OF 4 DEG N NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)E OF 72 DEG E NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 DEG E : NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 62 DEG E TO N OF 4 DEG N W/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)E OF 62 DEG E TO S OF 4 DEG N S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)E OF 60 DEG E FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 60 DEG E 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 64 DEG E:
ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 64 DEG E N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE-LY 05/10
KTS TO THE S OF 14 DEG N (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N : W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-W OF 55 DEG E :ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: W OF 55 DEG E :8-6 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 70 DEG E
ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 15 DEG TO E OF 61 DEG E SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG TO E OF 61 DEG E 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)E OF 88 DEG E TO S OF 6 DEG N
ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 89 DEG E E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 69 DEG E S-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/10
KTS TO THE W OF 86 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 14 DEG N SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 14 DEG N 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS –
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 15 DEG N SE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 18 DEG N FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
II)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 18 DEG N 4-3 NM RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

++++

OMAN

OMAN MARINE FORECAST FOR COASTAL WATERS

ISSUED AT 0600 ON 14/10/2018

AND VALID FROM 14/0600 TO 14/1800 UTC

REGIONAL SYNOPSIS: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SULTANATE.

WEATHER: CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS

WITH CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND FRESH WINDS.

WARNING: ROUGH SEA CONDITION EXPECTED DURING TROPICAL

STORM LUBAN ALONG THE ARABIAN SEA COASTS.

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS & VISIBILITY DETAILS FOLLOWS:

MUSANDAM WEST MUSANDAM EAST

WIND: VRB 05-12 KT WIND: SE/S 06-12 KT

SEA: SLT 1.0 M SEA: SLT 1.25 M

SWELL: NE 0.25 M SWELL: S/SE 0.25 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

BAYAH-MUSCAT MUSCAT VICINITY

WIND: NE TO VRB 03-10 KT WIND: SE TO NE 03-12 KT

SEA: SLT 0.5 M SEA: SLT 0.75 M

SWELL: E 0.5 KT SWELL: E 0.5 KT

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

MUSCAT-SUR SUR-MASIRAH

WIND: NE TO VRB 02-08 KT WIND: NE TO SE 08-18 KT

SEA: SLT 0.75 M SEA: MOD TO ROUGH 2.0-3.0 M

SWELL: E 0.5 KT SWELL: S 1.5 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN.

MASIRAH-MADRAKAH MADRAKAH-ALJAZIR

WIND: E/SE 10-20 KT WIND: E/SE 15-25 KT

SEA: MOD TO ROUGH 2.0-3.0 M SEA: ROUGH 3.0 M

SWELL: S 1.5-2.5 M SWELL: SE 3.0 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH CHANCES OF ISOLATED RAIN.WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH CHANCES OF ISOLATED RAIN.

ALJAZIR-SADAH SADAH-DHALKUT

WIND: E/SE 15-35 KT WIND: SE/E 25-40 KT

SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH 6-8 M SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH 6-8 M

SWELL: E 2-4 M SWELL: E/SE 3-5 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED RAIN.WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED RAIN.

OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS:

CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS WITH CHANCE OF

HEAVY RAIN AND FRESH WINDS.

WARNING:

ROUGH SEA CONDITION EXPECTED DURING TROPICAL STORM LUBAN ALONG THE

ARABIAN SEA COASTS.

PREPARED BY FORECASTER: AL-SHEDHANY. FORECASTER TELEPHONE: 24354661

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Oman/ Yemen/ Somalia/ Saudi Arabia: Tropical Cyclone/ ESCS MEKUNU 02A 251500Z near 116.7N 54.2E, moving NNW 08kt (JTWC) – Updated 24 May 2018 1845Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone/ EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (ESCS) MEKUNU (02A)

(Is a storm equivent to a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Will landfall soon near Salalah, Oman

Yemen, Somalia & Saudi Arabia be aware.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 32 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Mekunu) Warning #15
Issued at 25/1500Z

io02182

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251200Z — NEAR 16.4N 54.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 54.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 17.4N 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 18.3N 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 18.8N 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 19.1N 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 54.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250941Z AMSR-2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT CORE WITH A 15-NM
EYE. BASED ON THE RECENT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION AND IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW ASSESSED AT 100
KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS). TC 02A
IS APPROACHING THE OMAN COAST THUS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SALALAH
ARE INDICATING INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 34 KNOTS GUSTING TO
45 KNOTS AS OF 25/1250Z. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
25/18Z AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND, TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AS A
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 48.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z,
260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//
NNNN

METEOSAT Imagery

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO. 26
FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (ESCS) ‘MEKUNU’ OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA – ADVISORY NO. TWENTY SIX ISSUED AT 1700 UTC OF 25TH MAY, 2018 BASED ON 1500
UTC OF 25TH MAY, 2018.
THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MEKUNU’ OVER WESTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 10 KMPH DURING PAST
06 HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT 1500 UTC OF TODAY, 25TH MAY 2018 OVER
WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 16.60N AND LONGITUDE 54.00E, CLOSE
TO SOUTH OMAN-SOUTHEAST YEMEN COASTS (ABOUT 50 KM SOUTH OF SALALAH
(41316)). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS SOUTH
OMAN-SOUTHEAST YEMEN COASTS CLOSE TO SALALAH DURING NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH WIND SPEED 170-180 GUSTING TO 200 KMPH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERIES
INDICATE THAT UPPER HALF OF THE EYE WALL REGION IS ENTERING INTO LAND.
DATE/TIME(UTC) POSITION
(LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC DISTURBANCE
25/1500 16.6/54.0 170-180 GUSTING TO 200 EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM
25/1800 17.0/53.8 150-160 GUSTING TO 180 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
26/0000 17.5/53.5 130-140 GUSTING TO 155 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
26/0600 18.0/53.2 90-100 GUSTING TO 110 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
26/1200 18.6/52.7 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP DEPRESSION
27/0000 19.4/52.0 35-45 GUSTING TO 55 DEPRESSION
AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 1500 UTC OF TODAY, THE 25TH MAY 2018, THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T5.0. THE CLOUD SHOWS EYE PATTERN. ASSOCIATED
BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION
LIE OVER AREA BETWEEN LATTITUDE 13.0 DEG N & 20.0 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 50.0 DEG. E
TO 57.0 DEG. E. MINIMUM CTT IS MINUS 93 DEG. C.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 962 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 95 KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. STATE OF SEA IS
PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
Contact: Phone: (91) 11-24652484 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.com
STROM SURGE GUIDANCE:
STROM SURGE OF ABOUT 1.5 TO 2 METERS HEIGHT ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS
VERY LIKELY TO INUNDATE THE LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE LANDFALL POINT DURING
NEXT SIX HOURS.
REMARKS:
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS 30-31 DEG C OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.
THERE IS POSITIVE SST ANOMALY OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS ABOUT 70-90 KJ/SQ. CM TO THE LEFT FORWARD SECTOR OF
THE PREDICTED TRACK. HOWEVER, IT IS RELATIVELY LOW, AROUND 60-70 KJ/SQ. CM TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREDICTED TRACK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS ALONG 200N TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND HENCE THE SYSTEM IS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE
ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ABOUT 250X10-6
PER SEC TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
ABOUT 50 X10-5 PER SEC TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30 X10-5 PER SEC TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS BECOME LOW (5-10 KNOTS) OVER THE SYSTEM AREA DURING
PAST 6 HOURS LEADING TO SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION EVEN THOUGH THERE IS DECRESE IN
RATE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR INCURSION TO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO LAND INTERATION.
THE STEERING WINDS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS
TOWARDS SOUTH OMAN–SOUTHEAST YEMEN COAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSHPERIC LEVEL LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.
(D. R. Pattanaik)
SCIENTIST-E, RSMC NEW DELHI

www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%
Contact: Phone: (91) 11-24652484 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.com

OMAN

paca 6.jpg

paca6 arabic

Oman advice

http://www.met.gov.om/opencms/export/sites/default/dgman/en/home/

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

 

Other

DrR

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

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MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 251800

WTIN01 DEMS 251800

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 25 MAY 2018.

PART-I STORM WARNING
THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MEKUNU OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA MOVED FURTHER NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 15 KMPH DURING
PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT 1430 HRS IST OF TODAY, 25TH MAY
2018 OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 54.4 DEG E, ABOUT 400 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SOCOTRA ISLANDS
AND 100 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH(OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS SOUTH OMAN-SOUTHEAST YEMEN COASTS
BETWEEN 53 DEG E AND 54 DEG E CLOSE TO SALALAH, AROUND MIDNIGHT OF
TODAY, THE 25TH MAY, 2018 AS AN EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH
WIND SPEED 160-170 GUSTING TO 190 KMPH.

PART:-II
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL OVER ANDAMAN
SEA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD PERSISTS.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF
BENGAL AROUND 28TH MAY.

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 60 DEG E: S/SW-LY 15/40 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E
OF 67 DEG E TO 76 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 76 DEG E: SW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-1)W OF 60 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 11)W OF 60 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E E: 3-2 NM(.)
3)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 64 DEG E 3-6 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 2-3.5 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 60 DEG E: S/SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/25 KTS TO THE E
OF 65 DEG E TO 73 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 73 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-1)W OF 60 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 11)W OF 60 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
2)E OF 64 DEG E E: 3-2 NM(.)
3)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 6 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E: 2.5-4 MTR (.)
2)E OF 70 DEG E 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)
3)REST AREA: 2-2.5 MTR(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 60 DEG E
CYCLONIC 45-90 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE
E OF 65 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:1)W OF 57 DEG E TO N OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 67 DEG E TO S OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 57 DEG E TO N OF 14 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 67 DEG E TO S OF 14 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 70 DEG E: OVER 14 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 2-3.5 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
W/NW-LY TO THE E OF 63 DEG E TO 70 DEG E(.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: N/NW-LY 10/20 KTS TO BEC CYCLONIC
10/20 KTS TO THE S OF 14 DEG N (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 58 DEG E: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
2)E OF 64 DEG E TO S OF 15 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 58 DEG E: 8-6 NM(.)
2)E OF 64 DEG E TO S OF 15 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)W OF 60 DEG E 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2-3.5 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 15/20 KTS BEC
W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 91 DEG E (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N : SW-LY 10/25 KTS BEC 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 93 DEG E
(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 90 DEG E 2-3 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 86 DEG E: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)E OF 86 DEG E: SE/E-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 05/20 KTS TO THE
N OF 5 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 90 DEG E: 2-3.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 19 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 19 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 0.5-1.5 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: S/SW-LY 05/20 KTS BEC S/SE-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE N OF 17 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 20 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 20 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)S OF 15 DEG N TO W OF 92 DEG E : 2-3.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 0.5-2 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

North Arabian Sea/ Pakistan/ Oman/ Iran/ India: Tropical Cyclone One: 070900Z POSITION nr 15.8N 68.4E, moving N at 5 knots (JTWC) – Published 070615 1200Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone One (01A)

Pakistan/ Oman/ Iran/ India be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 8 (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED  07.06.2015
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA)
http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

sector-ir

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 01A (One) Warning #01
Issued at 07/0900Z

io0115

WTIO31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
070600Z — NEAR 15.5N 68.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 68.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z — 16.8N 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 18.2N 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 19.7N 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 21.0N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 22.5N 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 23.6N 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 24.3N 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 68.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 564 NM SOUTH OF
KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

NOT AVAILABLE

METAREA IX

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Oman /Pakistan /India /Arabian Sea: Tropical Cyclone NILOFAR 04A 271500Z near 15.2N 62.2E, moving WNW at 2 knots (JTWC) – Updated 271014 1502z (UTC/GMT)

Tropical Cyclone Four (04A)/ VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM ‘NILOFAR’

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre

https://i2.wp.com/www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/graphics/tcacgraphic.png

More here:

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en#

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0414.gif

WTIO31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (NILOFAR) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (NILOFAR) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
271200Z — NEAR 15.0N 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 62.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 15.7N 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 16.7N 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z — 17.6N 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z — 18.7N 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 20.5N 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 22.7N 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 12 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 24.9N 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (NILOFAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 381 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD
FILLED WHILE THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED
STEADY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THIS EYE FEATURE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE WHILE THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75
KNOTS BASED ON THE UPPER END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT NOW
RANGE FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 04A HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY TRACK
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MODIFYING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CREST
THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 36 AND THEN ACCELERATE TOWARDS WESTERN
INDIA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DRY AIR INTRUSION COULD
HAMPER THESE POSITIVE EFFECTS. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING VWS INDUCED
BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING PROCESS WHICH
WILL BE ADDED BY LANDFALL AFTER TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE OVER LAND. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, SOME OF THE MODELS (NAMELY COAMPS-TC AND
EGRR) HAVE BECOME ERRATIC AFTERWARDS AS THE TRACKERS HAVE STARTED TO
LOSE VORTEX IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. THIS COULD BE AN INDICATION OF
STRONGER VWS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH COULD INDUCE A
FASTER THAN EXPECTED WEAKENING. THIS ERRATIC TRACK DOES APPEAR
ERRONEOUS AS ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. DESPITE THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, THE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, BUT
FASTER THAN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TO OFFSET THESE ERRATIC TRACKS
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA9 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1059

WWPK20 OPKC 271059 CCA
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FOR MET AREA IX
VALID FOR 24 HOURS COMMENCING FROM 0700UTC DATED 27-10-2014
BY PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
PART -I THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘NILOFAR’ OVER CENTRAL NORTH ARABIAN
SEA HAS FURTHER INTENSIFIED INTO SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM, MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS AND LAY CENTRED
AT 0300 UTC OF 27TH OCTOBER, 2014 NEAR
LATITUDE 14.9 N AND LONGITUDE 62.00 E, ABOUT 1230 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF KARACHI AND 880 KM EAST-
SOUTHEASTOF SALALAH. IT WOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO VERY
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24
HRS AND WOULD MOVE INITIALLY NORTHWARDS DURING NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS
AND CROSS NORTH GUJRAT AND ADJOINING PAKISTAN COAST BY 31ST OCTOBER.
PART – II: THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY
INTO VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24
HRS. SEA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL.
PART -III: FORECASTS:

SUB AREA NO.1 NORTH ARABIAN SEA
I. WIND SE/SW’LY 10-15KTS GUSTING 20KTS NORTH OF 24ºN.
E/NE’LY 17-21KTS GUSTING 27KTS SOUTH OF 24ºN.
II. WEATHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM RAIN
IN SOUTHERN SECTOR
III. VISIBILITY MODERATE MAY BE POOR IN RAIN.
IV. STATE OF SEA MODERATE/ROUGH.
SUB AREA NO. 2 GULF OF OMAN
I. WIND SE/NE’LY 10-15KTS GUSTING 20KTS NORTH OF 24oN.
NE’LY 21-27 GUSTING 33 KTS SOUTH OF 24ºN
II. WEATHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM
RAIN IN SOUTHERN SECTOR
III. VISIBILITY GOOD MAY BE POOR IN RAIN.
IV. STATE OF SEA MODERATE/ ROUGH OCCASSIONALY VERY ROUGH
IN SOUTHERN SECTOR.
SUB AREA NO. 3 CENTRAL NORTH ARABIAN SEA (12ºN/55ºE,
12ºN/63ºE, 20°N/58°E, 20ºN/67ºE)
I. WIND SE’LY 17-21KTS GUSTING 27KTS NORTH OF 18ºN AND EAST OF 65°E.
SE/NE‘LY 28-33 KTS GUSTING 47 KTS NORTH OF 18ºN AND WEST OF 65ºE.
SW/SE’LY 63-77 KTS GUSTING 93 KTS SOUTH OF 18ºN AND EAST OF 63°E.
CYCLONIC 63-77 KTS GUSTING 93 KTS SOUTH OF 18ºN AND WEST OF 63°E
II. WEATHER WIDE SPREAD RAIN/THUNDERSHOWER.
III. VISIBILITY MODERATE MAY BE POOR IN SHOWERS.
IV. STATE OF SEA VERY HIGH/PHENOMENAL.
SUB AREA NO. 4 GULF OF ADEN
I. WIND NE/SE’LY BECMG NW’LY 10-15 KTS WEST OF 50°E,
NW’LY 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20 KTS EAST OF 50°E.
II. WEATHER FAIR/PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HAZY MORNING.
III. VISIBILITY MODERATE MAY BE POOR IN HAZE.
IV. STATE OF SEA SLIGHT/MODERATE.

Metarea IX

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Arabian Sea/ Oman/ India : Tropical Cyclone NANAUK 02A 131200Z nr 19.8 N 62.4 E, moving WNW at 6.4 knots Weakened to a Depression(RSMC New Delhi) – Updated 130614 1737z

Tropical Cyclone NANAUK (2A)

10/7/2014 to 13/7/2014

 

Weather Underground

(Image: wunderground.com) TC Nanauk (Click image to visit Weather Underground)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image to visit Weather Underground)

RSMC New Delhi

mapimage

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

 

FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAY PYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA ( BANGLADESH )
STORM STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN) +
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM ‘NANAUK’ ADVISORY NO. TWENTY ONE ISSUED AT 1400 UTC OF 13TH JUNE

TH
2014 BASED ON 1200 UTC CHARTS OF 13 JUNE 2014

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED ABOUT 12 KMPH DURING PAST 6 HOURS, WEAKENED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT
0
1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 13 JUNE, 2014 OVER WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH AND
0
LONGITUDE 62.4 EAST, ABOUT 1100 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI(43003), 850 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
VERAVAL(42909) AND 370 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND (41288). THE SYSTEM WOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN FURTHER INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA
DURING NEXT 24 HRS

ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 1.5. THE CLOUD PATTERN
IS SHEAR PATTERN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS IS
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM
CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITH INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER THE ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN
0 0 0 0
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH TO 22.0 NORTH LONGITUDES 58.0 EAST TO 64.0 EAST. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP
0
TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT MINUS 78 C.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 994 HPA.

THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 2100 UTC OF 13 JUNE 2014.

Phone: (91) 11-24652484 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.co

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0214.gif

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/02A_130530sams.jpg

 

 

WTIO31 PGTW 130900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK) WARNING NR 014A RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK) WARNING NR 014A RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
130600Z — NEAR 21.3N 64.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 64.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 21.8N 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 22.2N 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 64.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) CLEARLY SHOWS THE FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS DRIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) BY OVER
200 NM AND HAS BEGUN TO UNRAVEL. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS THE CDO
FEATURE REMAINS EXPANSIVE AND DEEP AS STRONG OUTFLOW – GENERATED BY
THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET WINDS – PROVIDE EXCELLENT VENTILATION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES
AND FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (40-50
KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DECOUPLED FROM ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND DRIFT POLEWARD WITH THE
850 MB FLOW AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE, TYPICAL
WITH RAPIDLY WEAKENING VORTICES, HAS BECOME WIDELY SPREAD, LENDING
LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET.
//
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MARITIME

WTIN01 DEMS 130910

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 13 JUNE 2014
———————————————-
PART I:- STORM WARNING (.)
PART II:-THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘NANAUK’ OVER EAST CENTRAL AND ADJOINING
WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTERED
AT 1200 UTC OF YESTERDAY THE 12TH JUNE 2014 OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA(.) IT FURTHER MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS
AND NOW LIES CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 13TH JUNE 2014 WITHIN
HALF A DEGREE OF LAT. 18.7°N AND LONG. 62.7°E. THE SYSTEM WOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY.
THE FEEBLE OFF SHORE TROUGH AT MEAN SEA LEVEL NOW EXTENDS FROM
MAHARASHTRA COAST TO KERALA COAST(.)
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)

A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:-WSW-LY 10/15 KTS.(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:-SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS.(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)3-4 M (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:-WSW-LY 10/15 KTS.(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:-SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS.(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)3-4 M (.)

A2 ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
SW/S-LY 35/40 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO THE N OF 18 DEG N AND
W OF 66 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE W OF 65 DEG E(.)
REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-2-1 NM TO THE W OF 65 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- MORE THAN 5 M(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
SW/S-LY 35/40 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO THE N OF 18 DEG N AND
W OF 63 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE W OF 63 DEG E(.)
REST AREA FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-2-1 NM TO THE W OF 63 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- MORE THAN 5 M(.)

A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 25/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)4-5 M(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 25/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)4-5 M(.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS:-
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 15 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 15 DEG N:WSW-LY 20/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO
THE E OF 90 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 15 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 15 DEG N:WSW-LY 20/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO
THE E OF 90 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

OMAN MARINE FORECAST http://met.gov.om/eng/marine_forecast.php

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  MaharasthraComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Ratnagiri
High waves in the range of 3.0 – 4.2 meters are predicted during 17:30 hrs on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hrs on 15-06-2014 along the coast from Malvan to Vasai of Maharashtra coast.
Winds will be mainly southwesterly, speed 45-50 kmph temporarily/momentarily reaching 60 kmph in gusts/squall.
Sea will be rough with southwesterly waves.
Fishermen are advised not to go out in the sea during next 24 hours.
Due to high swell propagation, combined with high tide, chances of wave surges are possible around 13:30 hrs on 14/06/2014 along the coast of Maharashtra.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Vasai

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Gujarat
High waves in the range of 3 -4.3 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along the coast from Jakhau to Diu Head of Gujarat coast.
Wind will be 35 to 45 kmph from southewesterly direction wind speed in gust may temporarily reach 55 kmph. Sea will be rough with waves from southewesterly direction.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during the same period.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Okha

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  KarnatakaComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Karwar
High waves in the range of 3 – 3.8 meters are predicted during 1730 hrs on 13-06-2014 to 2330 hrs on 15-06-2014 along the coast from Mangalore to Karwar of Karnataka coast.
Strong onshore winds from South Westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely along off Karnataka coast.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Karwar

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  LakshadweepComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Agatti
High waves in the range of 3.0 -4.1 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along Lakshadweep Islands between Minicoy to Bitra.
Strong onshore winds from westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely over Lakshadweep area.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Minicoy

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  KeralaComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Kollam
High waves in the range of 3.0 – 3.5 meters are forecasted during 1730 hours on 13-06-2014 to 2330 hours of 15-06-2014 along the Kerala coast between Vilinjhinjam to Kasargod.
Strong onshore winds from westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely along off Kerala coast.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Kasargod

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Tamil Nadu
High waves in the range of 2.5 – 3.1 meters are predicted during 1730 hrs on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hrs on 15-06-2014 along the Kolachal to Kilakarai of Southern Tamil Nadu.
Strong offshore winds from south westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely off Tamil Nadu coast.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Kolachal

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  AndamanComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Portblair
High waves in the range of 2.5 – 3.3 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along the west coast of Andaman Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Coco Channel.
Under the influence of strong south west monsoon current, strong south westerly wind speed exceeding 55kmph and generally rough to very rough likely along and off A & N coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

Significant Wave Height
Port-Blair

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Nicobar
High waves in the range of 2.5 – 3.2 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 12-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 14-06-2014 along the west coast of Nicobar Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Great Channel.
Under the influence of strong south west monsoon current, strong south westerly wind speed exceeding 55kmph and generally rough to very rough likely along and off A & N coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

Significant Wave Height
Car-Nicobar

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Goa
High waves in the range of 3.0 -3.9 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along the coast of Goa between Vengurla to Vasco.
Fishermen are advised not to go out in the sea during next 24 hours.

Significant Wave Height
Vengurla
images
AVHRR Image

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Arabian Sea: Tropical Depression/ Invest 96A making landfall over Oman (UK Met Office) – 040613 2350z

A tropical depression is making landfall over the usually arid country of Oman UKs

 

(Image: nrlmry.navy.mil)

 

(Image: wunderground.com)

 

96A.INVEST kml icon

 

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 05 -06 -2013
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600
UTC:

BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA:-
LOW PRESSURE:
A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER NORTHWEST ADJOINING
WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA OFF OMAN COAST, THE SYSTEM WOULD
BECOME WELL MARKED WITHIN 12 HOURS AND WOULD MOVE WEST
NORTHWESTWARDS.


BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA: –


BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION OVER BAY OF BENGAL ADJOINING INDIAN OCEAN BETWEEN
LATITUDE 13.0N TO EQUATOR NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL ADJOINING
EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL GULF OF MARTAABAN NORTH ANDAMAN SEA(.)
BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION OVER REST ANDAMAN SEA REST SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND WEAK
TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER REST PARTS OF THE REGION(.)


ARABIAN SEA:-


VORTEX CENTERED NEAR 20.2N/60.5E(.) INTENSITY T1.5 (.) BROKEN
LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA ADJOINING NORTHWEST
ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LATITUDE 18.0N TO 23.0N LONGITUDE 55.5E TO
60.0E ADJOINING OMAN COAST(.)
BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDEDMODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION OVER REST SOUTH ARABIAN SEA ADJOINING INDIAN OCEAN
BETWEEN LATITUDE EQ TO 6.0N EAST OF LONGITUDE 54.0E AND WEAK TO
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA(.)
RIDGE LINE:
RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPaPASSES ALONG LATITUDE 26.0NOVER THE REGION.

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

ABIO10 PGTW 051230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/051230Z-051800ZJUN2013//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.0N
62.6E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1). //
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