Ireland/ Northern Ireland/ UK/ Atlantic Ocean: Post-Tropical Cyclone LORENZO 02/1500Z 44.4N 25.8W, moving NE ~37.2kt. Wind 80mph. 962mb (NHC FL) – Updated 02 Oct 2019 2057Z (GMT/UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone LORENZO

…LORENZO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS
AND RAINFALL TO IRELAND AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM…

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.

IRELAND, NORTHERN IRELAND, UNITED KINGDOM, ISLE OF MAN, FRANCE, CHANNEL ISLANDS, NETHERLANDS, BELGIUM, GERMANY, and LUXEMBOURG BE AWARE!

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

 

000
WTNT33 KNHC 021435
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019

…LORENZO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS
AND RAINFALL TO IRELAND AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…44.4N 25.8W
ABOUT 945 MI…1525 KM WSW OF CORK IRELAND
ABOUT 970 MI…1565 KM WSW OF GALWAY IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 43 MPH…69 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…962 MB…28.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has
discontinued all warnings for the Azores.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Lorenzo was located near latitude 44.4 North, longitude 25.8 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 43 mph
(69 km/h). A continued fast motion toward the northeast is expected
through Thursday morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and
turn eastward and then southeastward Thursday night and Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of post-tropical Lorenzo will move
near western Ireland on Thursday, then pass over Ireland and England
on Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next day or so,
and the system is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when
it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening. A faster rate
of weakening is expected when the cyclone moves over Ireland and
England.

Lorenzo is a very large cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 390 miles (630 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
For hazard information for Lorenzo in Ireland and the United Kingdom
see products issued by Met Eireann and the United Kingdom Met
Office.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO
header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-
sea/high-seas-forecast.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website
of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at
http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Ireland

met-eireann-logo

National Warnings

Status Orange – Wind warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick
Southwesterly winds veering westerly will reach mean speeds 65 to 80km/h with gusts generally of 100 to 130km/h, higher in coastal regions.
Storm surges will produce coastal flooding and damage.

Valid: Thursday 03 October 2019 18:00 to Friday 04 October 2019 03:00

Status Yellow – Wind warning for Ireland
Southeasterly winds later veering southwesterly will reach mean speeds 50 to 65km/h with gusts to 100km/h resulting in some disruptive impacts.

Valid: Thursday 03 October 2019 09:00 to Friday 04 October 2019 06:00
Status: Yellow Rainfall warning for Ireland
Status Yellow – Rainfall warning for Ireland
Spells of heavy rain (in excess of 50mm in parts of the west and northwest) will result in some flooding.

Valid: Thursday 03 October 2019 09:00 to Friday 04 October 2019 09:00

Weather Advisory for Ireland

The effects of Storm Lorenzo will begin to be felt across Ireland from Thursday morning, easing Friday morning. The main impacts will include disruptive winds, falling trees and flooding.

In early October, trees are mostly in full leaf with a large surface area, so even moderate strength winds can bring down weakened trees and/or tree limbs. In addition, some trees may be compromised due to saturated soils at the moment, and with more rain forecast with Storm Lorenzo some disruption due to falling trees/branches is likely. Heavy rain, coupled with falling leaves may block drains and gullies, leading to surface flooding.

Coastal:
Storm Lorenzo will produce significant swell, high waves and sizeable storm surges. This will lead to wave overtopping, some coastal flooding and damage, especially along western and southern coasts.

Surface Flooding:
Saturated soils and the expected heavy/thundery rainfall may lead to surface flooding.

River:
River levels are currently elevated across the country and the rainfall may lead to river flooding, especially in parts of the midlands and west. River levels will continue to rise after Storm Lorenzo has passed.

Valid: Thursday 03 October 2019 09:00 to Friday 04 October 2019 09:00

United kingdom

UK Weather Warnings

Issued by the Met Office

  1. Yellow warning of wind

    Areas affected: Northern Ireland

    Starts: 15:00 BST on Thu 3 October

    Ends: 22:00 BST on Thu 3 October

    A spell of strong south-easterly winds may bring some transport disruption later on Thursday. – Some delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport are likely – Probably some bus and train services affected, with some journeys taking longer – Delays for high-sided vehicles on exposed routes and bridges likely – It’s likely that some coastal routes, sea fronts and coastal communities affected by spray and/or large waves – Some short term loss of power and other services is possible

    Issued at: 09:43 BST on Wed 2 October

  2. Yellow warning of wind

    Areas affected: South West England | Wales

    Starts: 04:00 BST on Fri 4 October

    Ends: 16:00 BST on Fri 4 October

    Strong winds may cause some transport disruption on Friday. – Some delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport are likely – Delays for high-sided vehicles on exposed routes and bridges likely – Some short term loss of power and other services is possible – It’s likely that some coastal routes, sea fronts and coastal communities are affected by spray and/or large waves

    Issued at: 09:57 BST on Wed 2 October

    Source: http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/satellite.php

    Source: https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/satellite_imagery.php


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 2 Oct, 2019 15:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Hurricane LORENZO is currently located near 44.4 N 25.8 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 70 kts (81 mph). LORENZO is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. LORENZO is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Ireland
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Northern Ireland
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Scotland
probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours
Wales
probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours
the Isle of Man
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
England
probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Bantry (51.7 N, 9.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Cork (51.9 N, 8.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
Wexford (52.3 N, 6.5 W)
probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours
Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours
Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours
Fishguard (51.9 N, 5.0 W)
probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours
Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)
probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
Lands End (50.1 N, 5.6 W)
probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.3 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
Cardiff (51.5 N, 3.2 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

UK Met Office

SurPress 1200 (UTC) on Wed 2 Oct 2019

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT23 KNHC 021435
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR THE SEA AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE AZORES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET
EIREANN…AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 25.8W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 37 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT…….100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW.
50 KT…….200NE 240SE 220SW 150NW.
34 KT…….300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 720SE 840SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 25.8W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 28.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 48.6N 20.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT…100NE 130SE 120SW 60NW.
50 KT…180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW.
34 KT…300NE 340SE 300SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 52.8N 14.3W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT…100NE 100SE 120SW 60NW.
50 KT…160NE 160SE 180SW 90NW.
34 KT…300NE 300SE 300SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 54.0N 9.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 100SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT…270NE 300SE 240SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 52.5N 3.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 0NE 0SE 140SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.4N 25.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE…UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

 

METAREA1 / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 022000

WONT54 EGRR 022000
SECURITE
STORM WARNING
AT 021200UTC, HURRICANE LORENZO 43 NORTH 28 WEST BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL LOW 53 NORTH 13 WEST 968 BY 031200UTC.
WINDS WILL REACH STORM FORCE 10 OR VIOLENT STORM FORCE 11
WITHIN 200 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW 57 NORTH 40
WEST 984 EXPECTED 58 NORTH 44 WEST 984 BY SAME TIME.
EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
STORM FORCE 10 AT TIMES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST OF EAST
NORTHERN SECTION, THE FAR NORTH OF WEST NORTHERN SECTION
AND THE WEST OF DENMARK STRAIT FROM 030300UTC UNTIL
031800UTC

AZORES

bulletins Marine
0000254301
FQAZ67 LPMG 020300
INSTITUTO PORTUGUES DO MAR E DA ATMOSFERA.
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR SHIPPING FOR THE ATLANTIC ZONES
LIMITED BY MERIDIANS 40W-22W AND BY PARALLELS 30N-45N.
I – TTT TTT TTT.
HURRICANE WARNING IN ZONES 3(ALTAIR) AND 5(ACORES).
GALE WARNING IN ZONES 30(MILNE) AND 31(MARSALA).
VERY POOR VIS WARNING IN ZONES 3(ALTAIR)E 5(ACORES.
HEAVY WAVES WARNING IN ZONES 3(ALTAIR), 5(ACORES),
7(IRVING), 30(MILNE) AND 31(MARSALA).
HURRICANE WARNING UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE COAST OF
FLORES AND CORVO ISLANDS FROM ACORES
IN ZONE 5(ACORES).
VIOLENT STORM WARNING UP TO 20 MILES FROM
THE COAST OF PICO, FAIAL, S.JORGE, GRACIOSA
AND TERCEIRA ISLANDS FROM ACORES IN ZONE 5(ACORES).
NEAR GALE WARNING UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE COAST
OF S.MIGUEL AND STA. MARIA ISLANDS FROM ACORES
IN ZONE 5(ACORES).
BAD VISIBILITY WARNING UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE COAST
OF FLORES AND CORVO ISLANDS FROM ACORES
IN ZONE 5(ACORES).
HEAVY WAVES WARNING UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE COAST
OF ALL ISLANDS FROM ACORES IN ZONE 5(ACORES).
II – WEATHER SUMMARY AT 020000UTC:
HIGH/ 1023HPA/ 35N15W/ EXP 030000UTC/ 1023HPA/ 35N14W.
HURRICANE LORENZO/ 960HPA/ 38N34W/ MOV NE 20KT/
LITTLE CHANGE.
W-FRONT/ 38N38W/ 42N36W/ 44N32W/ 46N29W/
MOV E/NE 20KT/ MOD TO STGR ACTIVITY.
III – FORECAST VALID TO 030600UTC:
3 – ALTAIR:
CYCLONIC 7 TO 12, BECMG W/NW 5 TO 7
IN W AND 7 TO 10 IN E, DECR TO 4 TO 6 LATER.
POOR TO VERY POOR VIS, BECMG GOOD TO MOD FM
LATE AFTERNOON.
S/SW WAVES 3 TO 5 M, TEMPO INCR TO 9 TO 14 M,
BECMG W WAVES 4 TO 5 M IN W AND 5 TO 7 M IN E LATER.
5 – ACORES:
S QUAD 7 TO 12, BECMG W QUAD 6 TO 8 DURING
AFTERNOON, DECR TO 2 TO 4 LATER.
GOOD TO MOD VIS, BEING POOR TO VERY POOR IN
NW UNTIL MIDDLE AFTERNOON.
SW WAVES 4 TO 8 M, INCR TO 9 TO 14 M, BEING W/SW
WAVES 2 TO 4 M IN E SOON, BECMG W/NW WAVES 5 TO 8 M
FM AFTERNOON, DECR TO 3 TO 5 M LATER.
7 – IRVING:
W/SW 5 TO 7, GRADUALLY DECR TO 2 TO 4
DURING AFTERNOON, BECMG VAR 2 TO 3 FM LATE
AFTERNOON.
GOOD TO MOD VIS.
W/SW WAVES 5 TO 7 M, BEING 2 TO 4 M IN E,
GRADUALLY BECMG W/NW WAVES 3 TO 4 M.
30 – MILNE:
NW 6 TO 8, TEMPO W 4 TO 6, BACK SW AND INCR
TO 6 TO 8 IN N.
GOOD TO MOD VIS.
W QUAD WAVES 4 TO 6 M, BEING 6 TO 9 M IN S,
GRADUALLY DECR TO 3 TO 4 M.
31 – MARSALA:
NW 4 TO 6, BEING 6 TO 8 IN NE, BECMG N/NW 3 TO 4,
BECMG VAR 2 TO 4 LATER.
GOOD TO MOD VIS.
NW WAVES 4 TO 6 M, BEING 6 TO 8 M IN NE,
GRADUALLY DECR TO 3 M.
FORECASTERS: LOURENCO/MEDEIROS/VIEIRA.
SOURCE: INSTITUTO PORTUGUES DO MAR E DA ATMOSFERA –
PORTUGAL.

Source: https://www.ipma.pt/en/maritima/boletins/

 

Ireland

Status Orange – Gale Warning

Southeast gales or strong gales on Thursday morning on all Irish Coastal Waters and on the Irish Sea, veering southwest and reaching storm force at times in the west.

Issued: Wednesday 02 October 2019 15:00

 

United Kingdom

 

Coastal Forecast

A 24 hour weather forecast for 24 UK coastal areas

Tide Tables

Tidal information supplied by the UK Hydrographic Office

Inshore Waters

There are strong wind warnings in 16 areas.

There is a gale warning in 1 area.

A ridge of high pressure will gradually build from the west tonight. The ridge gradually declining eastwards on Thursday as the remnant low of ex-hurricane Lorenzo moves in to the west of Ireland later in the day. The filling low is then expected to move steadily southeastwards into southwest England during Friday morning.

Shipping Forecast

There are gale warnings in 10 areas.

The general synopsis at midday

Hurricane lorenzo 550 miles west of Fitzroy becoming extratropical, expected Shannon 968 by midday tomorrow

Extended Outlook

The Extended Outlook aims to signpost expected hazards for the Cullercoats, Niton and Portpatrick areas for the three days beyond the 24 hour shipping forecast.

High Seas

There are storm warnings in 8 areas.

The general synopsis at 2 October 19:00 UTC

At 021200UTC, hurricane lorenzo 43 north 28 west becoming extratropical low 53 north 13 west 968 by 031200UTC. Low 57 north 40 west 984 expected 58 north 44 west 984 by same time. Low 46 north 58 west 999 expected 50 north 40 west 977 by that time. at 021200UTC, high 74 north 07 east 1027 expected 70 north 03 east 1027 by 031200UTC. High 41 north 12 west 1023 dissipating

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Bermuda: Major Hurricane HUMBERTO CAT3 18/1500Z near 32.2N 68.1W, ENE ~14kt wind 120mph 952mb (NHC FL) – Updated 18 Sep 2019 1700Z (GMT/UTC)

MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO CAT3 (09L)

BERMUDA BEWARE!

….…..AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS HUMBERTO
STRONGER AS THE MAJOR HURRICANE THREATENS BERMUDA…
…LARGE HURRICANE-FORCE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND…….

….. the
core of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and north
of Bermuda later tonight…..NHC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

 Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

144021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

 

 

000
WTNT34 KNHC 181438
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

…AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS HUMBERTO
STRONGER AS THE MAJOR HURRICANE THREATENS BERMUDA…
…LARGE HURRICANE-FORCE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…32.2N 68.1W
ABOUT 195 MI…310 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…952 MB…28.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 32.2 North, longitude 68.1 West. Humberto is now moving
toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general
motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected
through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-
northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast track, the
core of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and north
of Bermuda later tonight.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with
higher gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a
powerful hurricane through early Thursday while it passes close to
Bermuda. A steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday.

Humberto is a large hurricane and continues to grow in size.
Hurricane-force winds now extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
195 miles (315 km) based on reports from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft.

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 952 mb (28.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda this
evening and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds are
expected to reach tropical-storm strength later this afternoon,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with
maximum amounts of 6 inches expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda today. Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding. Wave heights exceeding
30 feet have already been reported by an offshore NOAA buoy.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water
levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
southern coast of Bermuda.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

BWS – Tropical Update Bulletin

HURRICANE HUMBERTO

IS A THREAT TO BERMUDA

Advisory #24,
12 pm Wed, Sep 18, 2019 (1500 UTC Wed, Sep 18, 2019)
Refresh browser for latest image
KEY: Blue = 34-50 kts, Yellow = 50-64 kts, and Red = 64 kts and greater
Diagonal shading indicates fringe winds (34kts or greater surrounding the storm’s core)
Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs (3 days) is forecast to be 78 nm to the NW, 8 pm Wed, Sep 18, 2019. However, this system may move closer to Bermuda after this time period depending upon its track.
Current Position: 32.2N 68.1W approx. 168 nm W of Bermuda
Recent Movement: ENE or 65 degrees at 14 kt
Central Pressure: 952 mb / 28.11 in
Max Winds: 105kt gusts 130kt
BWS Tropical Update Bulletins (TUBs), in line with NHC updates, are normally issued every 6 hours (03, 09, 15, and 21 UTC). When a tropical watch or warning is in effect for Bermuda, intermediate TUBs are issued at 3-hour intervals between the regular TUBs (06, 12, 18, and 00 UTC). Additionally, TUBs may be issued at any time due to significant changes in warnings or in the cyclone.

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 18 Sep, 2019 15:00 GMT

 

Intense Hurricane HUMBERTO is currently located near 32.2 N 68.1 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 105 kts (121 mph). HUMBERTO is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. HUMBERTO is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bermuda
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

DocR Bermuda H

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT24 KNHC 181438
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BERMUDA

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 68.1W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT……. 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT…….100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT…….150NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 300SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 68.1W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 68.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 33.5N 65.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT…100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT…150NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 36.1N 62.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT… 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT…100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT…170NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.6N 60.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT…100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT…200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.7N 59.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT…100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT…200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 43.3N 50.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 47.2N 33.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 54.0N 20.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 68.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4…AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Bermuda Marine Forecast

This forecast covers an area out to 25 nautical miles from the coastline
Issued at 11:30 am – Wednesday, September 18, 2019
The next scheduled update will be issued at 4:30 pm

Marine Synopsis –

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect – Category Three Hurricane Humberto is a threat to Bermuda and hurricane force winds are now expected to reach the island this evening. Expect showers, squalls & patchy heavy rain, as well as gusty thunderstorms. Southerly tropical storm force winds begin this afternoon ramping up to 50 knots by evening, increasing to hurricane force for a time this evening.Dangerous seas are also set to develop today. Winds veer west to northwest as Humberto moves away.

Today –

Winds southerly 15 to 25 knots, increasing 35 to 45 knots in the afternoon and 40 to 50 knots by early evening…  Widespread showers and rain with fair to poor visibility, and thunderstorms with very poor visibility. Seas rising rapidly from midday. Strongest winds in the northern marine area… Seas increasing, inside the reef 3 to 8 ft… Outside the reef 14 to 25 ft…  Sunrise: 7:04 am.

Tonight –

Winds southwesterly 50 to 65 knots gusts to 80 knots, easing westerly 30 to 40 knots gusts 55 knots overnight…  Widespread showers and rain with fair to poor visibility, and thunderstorms with very poor visibility. Seas rising rapidly. Strongest winds in the northern marine area… Seas increasing, inside the reef 3 to 8 ft… Outside the reef 25 to 37 ft…  Sunset: 7:21 pm.

Thursday –

Winds westerly 20 to 30 knots gusts to 40 knots, veering and easing northerly 15 to 20 knots by midday, easing 10 to 15 knots in the evening, veering northerly overnight…  Widespread showers easing to isolated during the morning with fair to poor visibility. Seas falling rapidly… Seas inside the reef 3 to 8 ft… Outside the reef 40 to 20 ft inside the reef 2 to 6 ft… Outside the reef 20 to 10 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:05 am; Sunset: 7:20 pm.

Friday –

Winds northerly 10 to 15 knots…  Scattered showers, risk thunder with fair to poor visibility… Seas inside the reef 2 to 4 ft… Outside the reef 15 to 10 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:05 am; Sunset: 7:18 pm.

Saturday –

Winds northerly 10 to 15 knots…  Seas inside the reef 2 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 7 to 10 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:06 am; Sunset: 7:17 pm.

Sunday –

Winds northerly 5 to 8 knots, veering northeasterly by afternoon and easterly overnight…  Seas inside the reef 1 to 2 ft… Outside the reef 4 to 6 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:07 am; Sunset: 7:16 pm.


Tides at St George’s (for Great Sound tides, add 10 minutes):
High: 12:02 pm this afternoon: 1.1m/3.6ft, 12:15 am tonight: 1m/3.3ft
Low: 5:58 pm this afternoon: 0.4m/1.3ft, 6:08 am Thursday: 0.4m/1.3ft
Sea Surface Temperature: 29.7°C/85.5°F
Meteorologist: Kimberley Zuill, Observer: Ashby Bradshaw

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Bahamas/ US (Florida)/ Caribbean: Catastrophic HURRICANE DORIAN CAT5 01/1200Z 26.5N 76.5W, moving W ~07kt Wind 160mph 927mb (NHC FL) – Updated 01 Sep 2019 1245Z (GMT/UTC)

CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DORIAN

Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

…EYEWALL OF NOW CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DORIAN ABOUT TO
HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS WITH DEVASTATING WINDS…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
EXPECTED……NHC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach

Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches or warnings
may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida today – NHC FL

 

… EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN WILL HIT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA TODAY ….

…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED…

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES: NORTH ELEUTHERA, ABACO, GRAND BAHAMA, BIMINI, THE BERRY ISLANDS AND NEW PROVIDENCE. – Bahamas Met

 

SEE COMMENTS AT BOTTOM OF PAGE FOR UPDATES

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE FL

115245_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

 

Satellite

000
WTNT35 KNHC 011152
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

…EYEWALL OF NOW CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DORIAN ABOUT TO
HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS WITH DEVASTATING WINDS…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
EXPECTED…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…26.5N 76.5W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 225 MI…360 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…160 MPH…260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…927 MB…27.37 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches or warnings
may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian
was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 76.5 West. Dorian
is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower
westward motion should occur for the next day or two, followed by a
gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of
extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian should be moving over Great
Abaco soon, and continue near or over Grand Bahama Island later
tonight and Monday. The hurricane should move closer to the Florida
east coast late Monday through Tuesday night.

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane which just penetrated
the eye of Dorian indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is
now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is
expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km). Elbow Cay in the Abaco Islands just reported winds
of 35 mph (56 km/h)

The minimum central pressure just measured by an Air Force plane was
927 mb (27.37 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Devastating hurricane conditions are expected in the Abacos
Islands very soon and these conditions will spread across Grand
Bahama Island later today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas…12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula
through Georgia…2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

 

xxxx

BAHAMAS

BAHAMAS PUBLIC FORECAST

ALERT #28 ON HURRICANE DORIAN ISSUED BY THE BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY SUNDAY, 1ST SEPTEMBER 2019 AT 6AM EDT.
… EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN WILL HIT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA TODAY ….

…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED…

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES: NORTH ELEUTHERA, ABACO, GRAND BAHAMA, BIMINI, THE BERRY ISLANDS AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT THE MENTIONED ISLANDS WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH ANDROS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT THE MENTIONED ISLAND WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 5AM EDT, THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 76.0 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 72 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARSH HARBOUR, ABACO; 74 MILES NORTHEAST OF NORTH ELEUTHERA; 115 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF EAST END, GRAND BAHAMA; AND 125 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEW PROVIDENCE.
HURRICANE DORIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT NEAR 8 MPH AND A SLOWER WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. ON THIS TRACK, THE CORE OF DORIAN SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MILES PER HOUR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORIAN IS A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY, BUT DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK INDICATES THAT RESIDENTS IN ABACO ARE NOW EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT ABOUT 11AM THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, RESIDENTS IN EAST GRAND BAHAMA WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AT ABOUT 9AM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT ABOUT 6PM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN IN WEST END, GRAND BAHAMA AT ABOUT 5PM AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE EXPERIENCED BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 8AM TO 8PM TODAY IN NORTH ELEUTHERA. RESIDENTS IN NEW PROVIDENCE AND NORTH ELEUTHERA ARE NOW EXPERIENCING INTERMITTING SEVERE SHOWER ACTIVITIES FROM THE OUTER-BANDS OF DORIAN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
THE EYE OF DORIAN IS NOW FORECAST TO PASS OVER ABACO BETWEEN MARSH HARBOUR AND TREASURE CAY BETWEEN 3PM AND 4PM TODAY. THE EYE WILL THEN MOVE OVER EASTERN GRAND BAHAMA BETWEEN 11PM TONIGHT AND 5AM MONDAY MORNING. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD NOT BE DECEIVED BY THE LULL IN THE WINDS AS THE EYE PASSES BUT REMAIN INDOORS AND PREPARE FOR THE SECOND PHASE OF THE HURRICANE.

SINCE DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT NEARS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES UP TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SHORES OF ELEUTHERA AND ABACO TODAY AND THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SHORES OF GRAND BAHAMA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 24 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA AND 2 TO 4 INCHES AND UP TO 6 INCHES IN ISOLATED AREAS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT AS LARGE TO DANGEROUS SWELLS ARE LIKELY.
THE NEXT ALERT ON HURRICANE DORIAN WILL BE ISSUED AT 9AM EDT SUNDAY, 1ST SEPTEMBER 2019.
PREPARED BY: JEFFREY SIMMONS

For more go here: http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/

NWS in Florida

Jacksonville
Key West
Melbourne
Miami
Tallahassee
Tampa Bay Area

NWS Radar

Jacksonville

Key West

Melbourne

Tallahassee

Tampa Bay area

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 1 Sep, 2019 9:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane DORIAN is currently located near 26.4 N 76.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 130 kts (150 mph). DORIAN is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DORIAN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Bahamas
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Freeport (26.6 N, 78.6 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours
    Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
    Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nassau (25.1 N, 77.3 W)
        probability for TS is 50% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

None

 

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT25 KNHC 010851
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO SEBASTIAN
INLET IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO
DEERFIELD BEACH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 76.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT……. 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 76.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 75.6W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.6N 77.1W
MAX WIND 135 KT…GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT… 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT…GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT… 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 26.9N 78.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT…GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT…GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT…100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.9N 79.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT…130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 31.8N 79.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 34.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 76.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5…AT 01/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

000
FZNT23 KNHC 010857
OFFNT3

Offshore Waters Forecast for the SW and Tropical N Atlantic and
Caribbean Sea
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Tropical N Atlantic from 07N to
22N between 55W and 64W, the SW N Atlantic S of 31N W of 65W
including Bahamas, and the Caribbean Sea.

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

AMZ001-012100-
Synopsis for Caribbean Sea and Tropical N Atlantic from 07N to
19N between 55W and 64W
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS…Hurricane Dorian is moving slowly W across the
Atlantic Ocean over open waters just E of the northern Bahamas.
A tropical wave in the far eastern Caribbean will reach the
central Caribbean Mon night and western Caribbean by Wed. Moderate
to fresh winds are expected across the eastern and central
Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing over the NW
Caribbean.

$$

AMZ011-012100-
Caribbean N of 18N W of 85W including Yucatan Basin-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…S to SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Scattered
showers.
.TONIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms.
.MON…S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms.
.MON NIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
Scattered showers.
.TUE…S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED…SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.THU…Variable winds less than 5 kt in Yucatan Channel, and E to
SE 10 to 15 kt elsewhere. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

AMZ013-012100-
Caribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including Cayman Basin-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms.
.TONIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
Scattered showers.
.MON…S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.MON NIGHT…S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Scattered showers.
.TUE…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.THU…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

AMZ015-012100-
Caribbean Approaches to the Windward Passage-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to SE to S in the
afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT…SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.MON…E winds 10 kt, shifting to S in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
or less.
.MON NIGHT…S to SW winds 10 kt, shifting to SE late.
Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.THU…NE to E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ017-012100-
Gulf of Honduras-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…S to SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.MON…S winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to W to NW in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft or less. Scattered showers and isolated tstms.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE…Variable winds less than 5 kt S of 17N W of 87W, and SE
10 kt elsewhere. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.THU…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ019-012100-
Caribbean from 15N to 18N between 80W and 85W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.MON…SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE…E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.THU…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

AMZ021-012100-
Caribbean from 15N to 18N between 72W and 80W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.THU…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

AMZ023-012100-
Caribbean N of 15N between 64W and 72W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

AMZ025-012100-
Offshore Waters Leeward Islands-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU…E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ027-012100-
Tropical N Atlantic from 15N to 19N between 55W and 60W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers.
.MON…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU…E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ029-012100-
W Central Caribbean from 11N to 15N W of 80W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt within 60 nm of coast of
Nicaragua, and E 15 to 20 kt elsewhere. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

AMZ031-012100-
Caribbean from 11N to 15N between 72W and 80W including Colombia
Basin-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.WED…NE to E winds 20 to 25 kt within 90 nm of coast of
Colombia, and E 15 to 20 kt elsewhere. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.THU…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.

$$

AMZ033-012100-
Caribbean S of 15N between 64W and 72W including Venezuela Basin-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt Gulf of Venezuela, and E 15 to
20 kt elsewhere. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt Gulf of Venezuela, and E
15 to 20 kt elsewhere. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt Gulf of Venezuela, and E 15 to
20 kt elsewhere. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt Gulf of Venezuela, and E
20 to 25 kt elsewhere. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.THU…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt Gulf of Venezuela, and E 15 to
20 kt elsewhere. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

AMZ035-012100-
Offshore Waters Windward Islands including Trindad and Tobago-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered
showers.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.THU…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ037-012100-
Tropical N Atlantic from 07N to 15N between 55W and 60W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers.
.MON…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ039-012100-
SW Caribbean S of 11N including Approaches to Panama Canal-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…Variable winds less than 5 kt S of 10N, and NE 10 to
15 kt elsewhere. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered showers.
.TONIGHT…Variable winds less than 5 kt S of 10N, and N to NE
10 to 15 kt elsewhere. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON…Variable winds less than 5 kt S of 10N, and NE to E 10 to
15 kt elsewhere. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
tstms.
.MON NIGHT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED…Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED NIGHT…S of 10N, NW to N winds 10 kt in the evening,
becoming variable less than 5 kt. Elsewhere, N to NE winds 10 to
15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.THU…S of 10N, variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming W to NW
10 kt in the afternoon. Elsewhere, NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas
3 to 5 ft.

$$

AMZ101-012100-
Synopsis for the SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS…
Category 4 Hurricane Dorian near 26.4N 76.0W 934 mb at 5 AM EDT
moving W at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 130 kt gusts 160 kt.
Dorian will move to 26.6N 77.1W this afternoon, 26.7N 78.1W Mon
morning, 26.9N 78.7W Mon afternoon, 27.0N 79.0W Tue morning, and
27.6N 79.4W Wed morning. Dorian will weaken slightly in intensity
as it moves to the 28.9N 79.8W early Thu, and continue to near
31.8N 79.6W early Fri.

$$

AMZ111-012100-
Atlantic from 27N to 31N W of 77W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. N of 29N W of 79W, NE to E
winds 15 to 20 kt. Elsewhere, NE to E winds 40 to 45 kt,
increasing to 55 to 60 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 to 19 ft in E
swell. Scattered showers and isolated tstms.
.TONIGHT… HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NE to E winds 20 to
25 kt N of 29N W of 79W, and NE to E 65 to 80 kt elsewhere. Seas
15 to 23 ft in NE to E swell. Scattered showers and isolated
tstms. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.MON… HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NE to E winds 20 to 25 kt
N of 29N W of 79W, and E 80 to 100 kt elsewhere. Seas 16 to 25 ft
in NE to E swell. Scattered showers and isolated tstms. Vsby 1 NM
or less.
.MON NIGHT… HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NE to E winds 25 to
30 kt N of 29N W of 79W, and E 80 to 100 kt elsewhere. Seas 20 to
30 ft in NE to E swell. Scattered showers and isolated tstms.
Vsby 1 NM or less.
.TUE… HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NE to E winds 30 to 35 kt
N of 29N W of 79W, and E to SE 75 to 95 kt elsewhere. Seas 23 to
35 ft in E swell.
.TUE NIGHT… HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.WED… HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.WED NIGHT… HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.THU… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

$$

AMZ113-012100-
Atlantic from 27N to 31N between 70W and 77W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY… HURRICANE CONDITIONS. E winds 20 to 25 kt N of
29N, and E to SE 50 to 65 kt elsewhere. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. N of 29N, E to SE
winds 20 to 25 kt. Elsewhere, SE winds 45 to 50 kt, diminishing
to 35 to 40 kt late. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated tstms.
.MON… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SE winds 35 to 40 kt.
Seas 8 to 12 ft in S swell. Scattered showers and isolated tstms.
.MON NIGHT… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SE winds 35 to
40 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft in SE to S swell. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms.
.TUE… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SE to S winds 35 to
40 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft in SE to S swell.
.TUE NIGHT… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.WED… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.WED NIGHT… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.THU… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

$$

AMZ115-012100-
Atlantic from 27N to 31N between 65W and 70W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt N of 29N, and E to SE 10 to
15 kt elsewhere. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers.
.TUE…S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…S to SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…S to SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT…SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU…SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

AMZ117-012100-
Bahamas including Cay Sal Bank-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY… HURRICANE CONDITIONS. Atlc Exposures, S to SW winds
90 to 110 kt. Elsewhere, SW to W winds 40 to 45 kt, increasing to
85 to 95 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 11 ft in N swell.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT… HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. Atlc Exposures, SE to
S winds 75 to 85 kt, diminishing to 45 to 50 kt late.
Elsewhere, SW winds 90 to 110 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in N swell.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.MON… HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. Atlc Exposures, SE to S
winds 40 to 45 kt, becoming S 30 to 35 kt in the afternoon.
Elsewhere, SW winds 90 to 100 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NE swell.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.MON NIGHT… HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SE to S winds 30 to
35 kt Atlc Exposures, and S to SW 90 to 100 kt elsewhere. Seas
6 to 8 ft in NE swell. Scattered showers and isolated tstms. Vsby
1 NM or less.
.TUE… HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. Atlc Exposures, SE to S
winds 25 to 30 kt. Elsewhere, S to SW winds 60 to 70 kt,
diminishing to 45 to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NE
swell.
.TUE NIGHT… HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.WED… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.WED NIGHT…S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU…S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ119-012100-
Atlantic from 22N to 27N E of Bahamas to 70W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY… HURRICANE CONDITIONS. N of 25N, SE to S winds 90 to
110 kt, diminishing to 60 to 70 kt in the afternoon. Elsewhere,
SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated tstms. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. N of 25N, SE
winds 45 to 50 kt, diminishing to 30 to 35 kt late.
Elsewhere, SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms.
.MON… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SE to S winds 35 to
40 kt N of 25N, and SE to S 10 to 15 kt elsewhere. Seas 6 to
8 ft. Scattered showers.
.MON NIGHT… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SE to S winds
35 to 40 kt N of 25N, and SE 10 to 15 kt elsewhere. Seas 4 to
6 ft. Scattered showers.
.TUE… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SE to S winds 35 to
40 kt N of 25N, and SE to S 15 to 20 kt elsewhere. Seas 4 to
6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT… TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.WED…S winds 20 to 25 kt N of 25N, and SE 10 to 15 kt
elsewhere. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT…SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.THU…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

AMZ121-012100-
Atlantic from 22N to 27N between 65W and 70W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated tstms.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers.
.TUE…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.THU…E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ123-012100-
Atlantic S of 22N W of 70W including Approaches to the Windward
Passage-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.THU…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ125-012100-
Atlantic S of 22N between 65W and 70W including Puerto Rico
Trench-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers.
.TUE…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.THU…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ127-012100-
Atlantic from 19N to 22N between 55W and 65W-
457 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.TODAY…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered showers.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU…E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

Forecaster KONARIK
===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US/ Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Depression Florence 16/1500Z 34.0N 81.8W, moving W 10mph/ ~8.69 kt 1002mb (NHC/NWS) – Updated 16 Sep 2018 1600Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Florence

…FLORENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLASH
FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS…

Flash flood warnings are currently in effect across a large portion
of southeastern North Carolina and portions of far northeastern
South Carolina.

Flash flood watches are in effect across much of North
Carolina…northern South Carolina and portions of Southwest
Virginia.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL)

 

 

 

 

 

 

811
WTNT31 KWNH 161511
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Florence Advisory Number 69
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062018
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

…FLORENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLASH
FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…34.0N 81.8W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM W OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 215 MI…345 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Flash flood warnings are currently in effect across a large portion
of southeastern North Carolina and portions of far northeastern
South Carolina.

Flash flood watches are in effect across much of North
Carolina…northern South Carolina and portions of Southwest
Virginia.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Florence was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 81.8 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through the day on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas…

Southeastern…Central and western North Carolina…far northern
South Carolina into far southwest Virginia…

Southeastern North Carolina and far northeast South Carolina:

Additional 3 to 6 inches of rain…with isolated maximum of 8
inches possible…with storm total accumulations of 30 to
40 inches likely. These rainfall amounts will produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Central and Western North Carolina…far northern South Carolina and
far southwest Virginia:

Additional 5 to 10 inches of rain, with storm total accumulations of
15 to 20 inches likely. These rainfall amounts will produce flash
flooding and an elevated risk for landslides in western North
Carolina and far southwest Virginia.

West-central Virginia:

2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall will result in
flash flooding and potentially lead to some river flooding.

For more information on rainfall totals please see the Storm Summary
available at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible across southeast North
Carolina and northeastern South Carolina today and tonight.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Oravec

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 34.0N 81.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 35.3N 82.8W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
24H 17/1200Z 37.8N 83.3W 20 KT 25 MPH…INLAND
36H 18/0000Z 39.7N 80.5W 15 KT 15 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 40.7N 76.1W 15 KT 15 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z 42.3N 64.3W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1200Z 44.2N 50.4W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1200Z 46.1N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Issuing WFO Homepage Local Impacts Local Statement
Wilmington, NC Local Tropical Website 508 AM EDT Sun Sep 16

 

Other

 

Category 2 Florence Nears Landfall in North Carolina; Catastrophic Flooding Expected

Dr. Jeff Masters

In Florence’s Grip, No Relief for North Carolina

Bob Henson

Dire Flood Threat for the Carolinas as Florence’s Record Rains Continue

Bob Henson

Florence’s Flood Threat Expands Inland

Bob Henson

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT21 KNHC 160852 CCA
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 68…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

CORRECTED CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 1000 MB

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO
SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 81.4W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 81.4W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 81.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.7N 82.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 36.7N 83.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.7N 82.6W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 39.8N 79.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 42.0N 68.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 43.5N 55.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 46.0N 40.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 81.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON FLORENCE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON FLORENCE CAN BE FOUND IN
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING
AT 1500 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH, AND
ON THE WEB AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Cuba/ Bahamas/ US (FL): Tropical Storm Philippe 282100Z near 23.0N 82.6W, moving N ~24.8kt NHC – Published 28 Oct 2017 2157z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Philippe

…DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE…
…HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA…NHC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

Interests in the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.

National Hurricane Center FL

205806_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

205806_earliest_reasonable_toa_34205806wpcqpf_sm

000
WTNT33 KNHC 282035
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

…DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE…
…HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.0N 82.6W
ABOUT 20 MI…30 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 120 MI…195 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 355 DEGREES AT 29 MPH…46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12-18 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located by surface observations, radar data, and satellite images
near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 82.6 West. Philippe is moving
toward the north near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue this evening, followed by a turn toward the northeast
by early Sunday morning. A faster motion toward the northeast is
expected on Sunday and continuing into Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Philippe will move off of the northern coast
of Cuba and into the Straits of Florida this evening, and move
across the Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida peninsula
overnight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the east and southeast of the center. A wind gust of 37
mph (59 km/h) was recently reported at Key West International
Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas:
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through
Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals
may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring in the
warning area across Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
occur in the warning area later tonight across the northwestern
Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the upper
Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight, and in the central
Bahamas by Sunday morning.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across portions
of South Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon and evening.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 28 Oct, 2017 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PHILIPPE is currently located near 23.0 N 82.6 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). PHILIPPE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Cuba
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the United States
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    the Bahamas
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    Canada
        probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)
        probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
    Freeport (26.6 N, 78.6 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
    Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)
        probability for TS is 65% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nassau (25.1 N, 77.3 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201718n201718n_0

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm34

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 2035

WTNT23 KNHC 282035
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017
2100 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD… LA HABANA… CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA… MATANZAS… CIENFUEGOS… AND VILLA CLARA
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CRAIG KEY TO GOLDEN BEACH
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.6W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.6W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 82.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 26.0N 80.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.5N 75.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 36.6N 70.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 150SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 42.0N 66.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT…150NE 150SE 120SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 82.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US/ Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm JOSE 20/0900Z nr 38.4N 70.3W, moving NE ~7kt NHC FL – Updated 20 Sep 2017 1200z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm JOSE

…JOSE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS…
…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS – NHC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha’s Vineyard
* Nantucket

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina
northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose.

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

at201712_5day JOSE WUND 20

 

at201712_sat JOSE WUND 20

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

084730_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind JOSE 20

rb_lalo-animated JOSE GOES SAT.gif

 

084730_most_likely_toa_34 JOSE

084730WPCQPF_sm JOSE RAIN

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 60
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

…JOSE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS…
…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…38.4N 70.3W
ABOUT 195 MI…310 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.80 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The tropical storm watch has been discontinued along the coast of
Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha’s Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 38.4 North, longitude 70.3 West. Jose is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through today with a decrease in
forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Jose
is expected to pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast today,
and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area beginning today.

SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several
days in these areas. For more information, please consult products
from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall accumulations through Thursday:

Martha’s Vineyard and Cape Cod…1 to 2 inches.
Nantucket…2 to 4 inches.

These rainfall totals could cause isolated flash flooding.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

NNNN

 

Caribbean_general_map

Maria Threatens Leeward Islands; Jose’s Surf Will Batter Northeast U.S. Beaches

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 M 20 MARITIME
METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0840

WTNT22 KNHC 200840
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 60
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017
0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE COAST OF
LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH… INCLUDING CAPE COD
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA’S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 70.3W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT…….180NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 70.3W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 70.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.1N 69.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.6N 68.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 90NE 70SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…150NE 160SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.5N 67.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 160SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.2N 68.3W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…150NE 130SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 38.9N 69.4W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…100NE 80SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 39.2N 69.5W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 39.5N 68.9W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.4N 70.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.