US/ Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm JOSE 20/0900Z nr 38.4N 70.3W, moving NE ~7kt NHC FL – Updated 20 Sep 2017 1200z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm JOSE

…JOSE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS…
…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS – NHC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha’s Vineyard
* Nantucket

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina
northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose.

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

at201712_5day JOSE WUND 20

 

at201712_sat JOSE WUND 20

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

084730_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind JOSE 20

rb_lalo-animated JOSE GOES SAT.gif

 

084730_most_likely_toa_34 JOSE

084730WPCQPF_sm JOSE RAIN

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 60
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

…JOSE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS…
…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…38.4N 70.3W
ABOUT 195 MI…310 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.80 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The tropical storm watch has been discontinued along the coast of
Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha’s Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 38.4 North, longitude 70.3 West. Jose is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through today with a decrease in
forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Jose
is expected to pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast today,
and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area beginning today.

SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several
days in these areas. For more information, please consult products
from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall accumulations through Thursday:

Martha’s Vineyard and Cape Cod…1 to 2 inches.
Nantucket…2 to 4 inches.

These rainfall totals could cause isolated flash flooding.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

NNNN

 

Caribbean_general_map

Maria Threatens Leeward Islands; Jose’s Surf Will Batter Northeast U.S. Beaches

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 M 20 MARITIME
METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0840

WTNT22 KNHC 200840
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 60
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017
0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE COAST OF
LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH… INCLUDING CAPE COD
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA’S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 70.3W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT…….180NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 70.3W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 70.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.1N 69.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.6N 68.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 90NE 70SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…150NE 160SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.5N 67.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 160SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.2N 68.3W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…150NE 130SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 38.9N 69.4W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…100NE 80SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 39.2N 69.5W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 39.5N 68.9W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.4N 70.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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United States: Tropical Storm IRMA 11/2100Z Update from NHC and others – Updated 11 Sep 2017 2145z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL STORM IRMA

IRMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA – NHC

⚠️

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to the South Santee River
* North of Clearwater Beach to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Altamaha Sound to the South Santee River

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

SPECIAL EMERGENCY MESSAGE FROM NWS

152552_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind TS IRMA Adv 51

 

152552_earliest_reasonable_toa_34 51

activity_looprb_lalo-animated2

southeast_loop

Robins Air Force Base, GA Radar

Wind Probs  

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

…IRMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…31.5N 84.0W
ABOUT 10 MI…15 KM E OF ALBANY GEORGIA
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM S OF ATLANTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB…29.09 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warnings from Fernandina Beach southward, from
the Aucilla River westward, and from Clearwater Beach southward,
including Tampa Bay, have been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning from the Flagler/Volusia County line to
Altamaha Sound is discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning from north of the Suwannee River to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to the South Santee River
* North of Clearwater Beach to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Altamaha Sound to the South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor
the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 84.0 West. Irma is
moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a
turn toward the northwest is expected by Tuesday morning. On the
forecast track, the center of Irma will continue to move over
southwestern Georgia tonight and move into Alabama on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Irma is likely
to become a tropical depression on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

North of Clearwater Beach to Aucilla River…4 t 6 ft
West of Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River…1 to 3 ft
Clearwater Beach to Bonita Beach including Tampa Bay…1 to 3 ft

South Santee River to North of Fernandina Beach…4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Flagler/Volusia County line, including the St.
Johns River…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area into tonight.

Rainfall: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:

South Carolina and north-central Georgia and Alabama into the
southern Appalachians…3 to 6 inches with isolated 10 inches.
Northern Mississippi and southern portions of Tennessee and North
Carolina…2 to 4 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight along the South
Carolina coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of
the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN

LOCAL STATEMENTS

Issuing WFO Homepage Local Impacts Local Statement
Miami, FL Threats and Impacts 1125 AM EDT Mon Sep 11
Charleston, SC Not currently available 1139 AM EDT Mon Sep 11
Tallahassee, FL Threats and Impacts 1141 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 /1041 AM CDT Mon Sep 11
Atlanta, GA Threats and Impacts 1147 AM EDT Mon Sep 11
Birmingham, AL Threats and Impacts 1124 AM CDT Mon Sep 11
Melbourne, FL Threats and Impacts 233 PM EDT Mon Sep 11
Tampa Bay Area, FL Threats and Impacts 456 PM EDT Mon Sep 11
Jacksonville, FL Threats and Impacts 515 PM EDT Mon Sep 11

============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2017 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm IRMA is currently located near 31.5 N 84.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). IRMA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Charlotte (35.2 N, 80.8 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Columbia (34.0 N, 81.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Atlanta (33.8 N, 84.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Myrtle Beach (33.7 N, 79.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Montgomery (32.4 N, 86.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Tallahassee (30.4 N, 84.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Tampa (28.0 N, 82.5 W)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Nashville (36.1 N, 86.8 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours
    Louisville (38.4 N, 86.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

201711N tsr1 irma 11

201711N_0 tsr2 irma 11

=============================================================================

Other

 

at201711_5day ts irma

at201711_sat ts irma

 

The two images above are from @wunderground

Ferocious Irma Pounding Florida, But It Could Have Been Worse

No Rest for the Hurricane-Weary: Jose a Potential East Coast Threat

windy.com – interactive animated wind map

Caribbean_general_map

Caribbean General Map (Image: Kmusser)

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 112035

WTNT21 KNHC 112035
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE STORM SURGE WARNINGS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD… FROM
THE AUCILLA RIVER WESTWARD… AND FROM CLEARWATER BEACH
SOUTHWARD… INCLUDING TAMPA BAY… HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND IS DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE
OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* NORTH OF CLEARWATER BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION… FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE…
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC… AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 84.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….360NE 230SE 150SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 390SE 390SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 84.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 83.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 33.1N 85.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…220NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 34.5N 87.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.8N 88.8W…POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 37.0N 88.5W…POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 84.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

=============================================================================

000
FZNT25 KNHC 112138
OFFN04

NAVTEX Marine Forecast
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
538 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

…Please refer to Coastal Waters Forecasts (CWF) available
through NOAA Weather Radio and other means for detailed
Coastal Waters Forecasts…

Southeast Gulf of Mexico

.SYNOPSIS…Tropical Storm Irma near 31.5N 84.0W, 985 mb moving
NNW at 15 kt at 5 PM EDT, and inland over SW Georgia. Maximum
sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Irma will continue moving NNW
and and weaken to a depression as it move farther N. A weak
pressure pattern will set up across the Gulf in the wake of Irma
through the remainder of the week. N to NE swell from Irma will
dominate seas across the Gulf through Tue.

.TONIGHT…W to NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt
late in the night. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NW to N swell. Slight
chance of showers.
.TUE…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft,subsiding to
3 to 5 ft late in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft early in the morning,
subsiding to 2 ft or less. Isolated thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT…SE to S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.THU…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.THU NIGHT…S winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E after midnight.
Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI NIGHT…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

Within 200 nm east of the coast of Florida

.SYNOPSIS…Tropical Storm Irma near 31.5N 84.0W, 985 mb moving
NNW at 15 kt at 5 PM EDT, and inland over SW Georgia. Farther E,
Hurricane Jose is near 26.4N 69.2W, 973 mb moving N at 10 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts to 105 kt. Jose is expected
to move to 27.2N 69.0W tonight, to 27.0N 67.7W Tue afternoon, to
26.3N 66.7W Tue night, to 25.3N 66.1W Wed afternoon, to 24.4N
68.6W Thu afternoon, before moving slowly NW thereafter as its
completes this clockwise loop. Swell from Jose will dominate
area waters Tue through Fri.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TONIGHT…SW to W winds 15 to 20 kt S of 27N, and SW 20 to 25 kt
N of 27N. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NE to E swell. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE…W winds 5 to 10 kt S of 27N, and SW to W 15 to 20 kt N of
27N. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NE to E swell. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE NIGHT…SW winds less than 5 kt S of 27N, and SW to W 10 to
15 kt N of 27N. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.WED…S of 27N,SW to W winds less than 5 kt, shifting to N late
in the afternoon. N of 27N,SW winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E to
SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Slight chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU…NE to E winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft in NE swell.
.THU NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT…N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft in NE swell.
.SAT NIGHT…NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft in NE swell.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Bermuda/ Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Joaquin CAT2 04/1500Z 31.0N 66.8W, moving NNE 15 knots (NHC FL) – Updated 04 OCT 2015 1705z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Joaquin

(CATEGORY 2Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Hurricane Warning for BERMUDA – storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding

…CENTER OF JOAQUIN FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TODAY…
…DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Latest Watches, Warnings & Advisories

Hurricane Warning

Updated: 11:30 am Sunday, October 04, 2015

Additional Information:

Hurricane force winds are expected to occur for a period during Sunday evening, especially in the west and over elevated, exposed areas. Please refer to latest Tropical Update Information.
Hurricane Warning
A warning that one or both of the following dangerous effects of a hurricane are expected to affect Bermuda or the local marine area out to 25 nautical miles in 36 hours or less: (a) average winds 64 knots (118 km/h) (74 mph) or higher; (b) dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves, even though winds expected may be less than hurricane force.

Please refer to the latest forecast for detailed information on conditions likely to affect Bermuda and the surrounding marine area. This is available by logging onto our website at www.weather.bm.

The above warning(s) will be updated as conditions warrant.

– Meteorologist: Fred Byrley

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

145216W5_NL_sm 4

000
WTNT31 KNHC 041451
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015

…CENTER OF JOAQUIN FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TODAY…
…DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…31.0N 66.8W
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB…28.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of eye of Hurricane Joaquin
was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 31.0 North, longitude 66.8 West. Joaquin is now moving
toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion with a slight decrease in forward is expected to continue
through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will
pass just west of Bermuda this afternoon, and pass north of Bermuda
tonight.

Recent data from the hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 957 mb (28.26 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda
later this morning, with hurricane conditions expected by this
afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and
will spread northward along the east coast of the United States
through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to
pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period
of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the
mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with
moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 4 Oct, 2015 15:00 GMT

Hurricane JOAQUIN (AL11) currently located near 31.0 N 66.8 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bermuda
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201511N 4

Other Reports

#SCwx #NCwx #SC #NC #SAR #Flood #SevereWx #News/ Historic, life-taking #flooding in #SouthCarolina – many rescues rptd

Even though #Hurricane #Joaquin is tracking away from the United States, torrential rainfall continues to pound the #EastCoast. Heavy rain has brought historic, life-threatening flooding in many locations in South Carolina, including in #Charleston and #Columbia, where numerous rescues have been reported. Into Monday, a feed of rich tropical moisture from the #Atlantic will continue to unleash heavy rainfall on the Southeast, especially in parts of South Carolina and southeastern #NorthCarolina. Gov. Nikki Haley urged the residents of South Carolina to stay safe, saying that the amount of rain in the low country was at its highest level in a 1,000 years and noted that the #CongareeRiver was at its highest level since 1936. In eastern South Carolina and southeastern #NorthCarolina, rainfall totals are predicted to range from 12 to 24 inches, nearly half of the normal rainfall for an entire year. President #Obama has already declared a state of emergency in South Carolina and ordered federal aid to help state and local efforts. Rain and flood warnings remained in effect for many parts of the East Coast on Sunday. While much of the torrential rainfall was centered in the #Carolinas, coastal communities as far as #NewJersey were feeling the effects of unrelenting rainfall. In New Jersey, storms dislodged an entire house from its pilings in a low-lying area of #MiddleTownship, according to NBC New York. Flood watches and warnings are in effect in parts of New Jersey, as well as #Delaware, #Maryland and #Virginia. At least 5 people have died on the East Coast since the severe weather began. Of the three weather-related deaths in South Carolina, two were motorists who lost control of their cars and the third was a pedestrian hit by a car. Take a look at photos of the unfolding devastation from the torrential rains and powerful wind gusts.

Monday, 05 October, 2015 at 12:23 (12:23 PM) UTC RSOE

See also https://www.windyty.com/?23.624,-73.795,6

Dr. Jeff Masters’ Blog

Thousand-Year Rains Possible in Carolinas; Joaquin Headed North

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , 4:39 PM GMT on October 02, 2015

Hurricane Joaquin continued to lash the Bahamas on Friday morning as it turned north on a course expected to keep it well away from the U.S. East Coast. However, several days of coastal flooding and beach erosion will occur from New Jersey to North Carolina, and extremely heavy rain could produce dangerous impacts in South Carolina. It was a long night of screaming winds, pounding waves, and lashing rains for residents of the Central Bahama Islands, where dangerous Hurricane Joaquin maintained Category 4 intensity with 130 mph winds. The eyewall of Joaquin affected Crooked Island/Acklins Island (population 600), and Long Island (population 3,000) for many hours, and no doubt damage is heavy to extreme on those islands. Joaquin has turned to the north, as seen on microwave satellite animations, and as the storm plows northwards at 3 – 6 mph on Friday, San Salvador Island (population 900) will likely feel eyewall winds. The Hurricane Hunters made multiple passes through the hurricane Friday morning, finding that the central pressure had gradually risen from 935 mb to 939 mb. The size of the eye has been fluctuating considerably, and the Hurricane Hunters noted a secondary maxima of winds away from the eyewall, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle may be ready to begin. These cycles that lead to a collapse of the inner eyewall, followed by a temporary weakening as a new outer eyewall is established. Wind shear continued to be in the moderate range, 10 – 20 knots, on Friday morning, and visible and infrared satellite loops showed that Joaquin continued to maintain a formidable appearance. Upper level winds analyses from the University of Wisconsin show that the hurricane has now has two impressive upper-level outflow channels, one to the northwest, and one to the southeast. Ocean temperatures in the region remain a record-warm 30°C (86°F). These conditions should allow Joaquin to maintain at least Category 3 strength until Saturday.


Figure 1. Lightning flashes in one of Hurricane Joaquin’s spiral bands in this nighttime image taken in the early morning hours of October 2, 2015 from the International Space Station. The lights of Miami are visible in the upper left. Image credit: Commander Scott Kelly, ISS.


Figure 2.  GOES-13 visible image of Hurricane Joaquin taken at 8:45 am EDT October 2, 2015. At the time, Joaquin was a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Forecast for Joaquin
Joaquin is finally embarking on its long-awaited turn toward the north, and the Bahamas are likely the only land areas that will feel a direct impact from the storm. Microwave satellite animations on Friday morning showed the convective core of Joaquin shifting toward the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is now streaming toward the northwest, some of it becoming entrained in the frontal system off the East Coast.

The 00Z Friday (8 pm EDT Thursday) computer model runs continued to lean heavily toward an offshore track for Joaquin. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF solutions inched slightly westward from their previous tracks, bringing Joaquin a bit closer to Cape Cod through a subtle left swing in its path. The 06Z GFS run shifted back toward the east, well away from New England, and the 12Z GFS run also remained far offshore. A slight northward bend in the otherwise northeastward track remains in the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET solutions, as noted in the 11:00 am EDT forecast discussion from NHC. The ECMWF’s 00Z Friday ensemble runs were quite closely clustered around the offshore track, with only a couple of its 50 members suggesting the potential for a New England landfall. In contrast, more than a third of the 00Z and 06Z GEFS ensemble members continue to indicate the possibility of a SC/NC landfall, although the operational GFS model has not shown such a solution for some time. Among other major models, the Canadian GEM and the U.S. NAM (including the 12Z Friday NAM ran) also point toward an East Coast landfall, but take heed: these are historically among the least-reliable track models, so we would be wise to heavily discount them in favor of the GFS and ECMWF.


Figure 3. GFS ensemble members from the GEFS run on 06Z Friday, October 2, lean heavily toward an offshore track for Joaquin as depicted in the official NHC forecast, although a few members still bring Joaquin along a looping onshore path near the U.S. East Coast. On the right-hand side are the ensembles’ projected tracks for Invest 90L. Image credit: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.

The official NHC forecast track as of 11:00 am EDT Friday keeps Joaquin hundreds of miles away from the U.S. East Coast, and NHC has enough confidence in this track that the “key points” section of its latest forecast discussion does not mention any potential for a U.S. landfall. The persistence of a few model outliers should not be a particular cause for concern at this point, but it does remind us that the upper-level features that will steer Joaquin are complex and dynamic. The two main influences on Joaquin’s track remain the upper low now cutting off over the Southeast U.S. and Invest 90L, located more than 1000 miles east of Joaquin. 90L originated from an upper-level low that has incorporated remnants of former Tropical Storm Ida. The NHC is giving 90L an 80% chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours as it drifts northward. The presence of 90L is creating a pathway for Joaquin to head northeast.

It appears that the strong jet stream diving around the Southeast low will kick eastward around the base of the low over the next couple of days, pushing the eastern part of the low offshore. Together with the influence of slowly developing 90L, this should keep Joaquin moving on a north to northeast track Friday and Saturday. As Figure 3 suggests, a more northeastward motion would lend confidence in the current expectation of an offshore track, while any significant component of motion toward the west today and Saturday would keep open the door for the far-less-likely possibility of a track hooking around the Southeast upper low. We’ll be watching the 12Z Friday model guidance closely and will have more on the forecast for Joaquin in our afternoon update.


Figure 4. Projected rainfall (in inches) for the 72-hour period from 12Z (8 am EDT) Friday, October 2, 2015, to Monday, October 5. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.

Epic rainfall likely for South Carolina
The latest 3-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is calling for 10 – 15″ inches of rain for the majority of South Carolina, including the cities of Charleston and Columbia.

This forecast assumes that Hurricane Joaquin will not come anywhere close to the state. The rain will be due to what meteorologists call a “Predecessor Rain Event” (PRE) (see this paper on them, h/t to Stu Ostro of TWC: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MWR3243.1). In a Predecessor Rain Event, tropical moisture well out ahead of a landfalling tropical cyclone interacts with a surface front and upper-level trough to produce heavy rainfall, often with significant inland flooding. The PRE can develop well to the left or right of the eventual track of the tropical cyclone. Slow-moving Hurricane Joaquin is perfectly positioned to transport a strong low-level flow of super-moist tropical air that has water vapor evaporated from record-warm ocean waters north of the Bahamas westwards into the Southeast U.S. Once this moisture hits land, it will encounter a cut-off upper low pressure system aloft, with a surface front beneath it, which will lift the moist air, cooling it, and forcing epic amounts of rainfall to fall. The air will also be moving up in elevation from the coast to the Piedmont and Appalachians, which lifts the air and facilitates even more precipitation. Satellite imagery is already hinting at development of this connection of moisture between Joaquin and the Southeast low and frontal system.


Figure 5. The maximum rainfall predicted to fall in any 24-hour period during the 5-day period from 5 am EDT October 2 to 5 am EDT October 7, according to a high-resolution Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model run done by MetStat, Inc. (http://www.metstat.com.) In some areas of North Carolina and South Carolina, 24-hour rainfall amounts one would expect to fall only once in a thousand years are predicted. MetStat computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 8, published in 2013 (http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/.) MetStat does not supply their precipitation recurrence interval forecasts or premium analysis products for free, but anyone can monitor the real-time analysis (observed) at: http://metstat.com/solutions/extreme-precipitation-index-analysis/ or on their Facebook page.

Using about a century of precipitation records, NOAA has constructed a Precipitation Frequency Data Server, which estimates how often we might expect to see extreme rainfall events recur.  According to NOAA’s Precipitation Frequency Data Server, these could be 1-in-1000 year rains for some locations. (Hydrologists would refer to a 1-in-1000-year rain as having a typical “recurrence interval” of 1000 years. The idea is that such events are not always separated by 1000 years; the same amount of rain could conceivably occur the very next year, or might not occur until thousands of years later.) The three-day 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts for Charleston, Greenville and Columbia are 17.1″, 17.8″, and 14.2″, respectively. The 24-hour 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts for Charleston, Greenville and Columbia are 14.8″, 15.9″, and 12.5″, respectively.

The storm to beat in South Carolina is Tropical Storm Jerry of 1995, which dumped up to 18.51″ of rain over a small region of Southwest SC. The storm to beat in nearby eastern North Carolina is Hurricane Floyd, which dumped prodigious amounts of rain in mid-September 1999, less than a month after Hurricane Dennis had drenched the region. Floyd produced a broad stripe of 15″ – 20″ rains, with a maximum total of 24.06″ at a site five miles north of Southport, NC (about 30 miles east of the NC/SC border). To get such widespread multi-day totals outside of a tropical cyclone would be a monumental feat.  Averaged across the state as a whole, the wettest three calendar months in South Carolina weather history are July 1916 (14.41″), September 1924 (13.16″), and September 1928 (12.70″). All of these were related to tropical cyclones passing through or near the state. If the NWS precipitation forecasts are in the right ballpark, then the first few days of October 2015 might approach or even exceed these all-time monthly records for the entire state–without any help from a landfalling hurricane or tropical storm!

Texas and Oklahoma have already notched their wettest months on record (by far) this past May, and Illinois had its second-wettest month on record in June. Our warming climate is making intense short-term rains (such as the highest 1-day totals) even heavier in many parts of the United States and the world, although less research has been done on trends in monthly rainfall.

For more on the science of extremely heavy rainfall, see Bob Henson’s May 2015 post, The Rains of May and the Science of Recurrence Intervals.


Figure 6. Projected maximum flood category for the 24-hour period from noon EDT Friday, October 2, through Saturday, October 3, 2015. The worst impacts today through Saturday are expected through the southern part of the Chesapeake Bay. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.


Figure 7. Strong on-shore winds along the mid-Atlantic coast due to the pressure gradient between Hurricane Joaquin and a strong high pressure system over the Northeast U.S. were creating storm surge heights of 2 – 3′ in many locations, and over 3′ on Virginia’s Delmarva Peninsula. Image credit: Hal Needham.

Long-duration coastal flooding under way
The combination of Hurricane Joaquin, the Southeast U.S. low, and a strong ridge well to the north is leading to an unusually prolonged period of steady onshore flow and high surf along the U.S. East Coast from New Jersey southward to North Carolina. The highest-impact coastal flooding and beach erosion can be expected along the Virginia and Delaware coast, including Ocean City, MD, and the Hampton Roads area of VA, which includes Norfolk and Virginia Beach. The Wakefield, VA, NWS office is calling for several rounds of moderate to severe coastal flooding through the weekend. See the latest blog post from storm-surge expert Hal Needham for more details on this event.

We’ll have an update later this afternoon.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

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Bermuda Marine Forecast

This forecast covers an area out to 25 nautical miles from the coastline
Issued at 11:30 am – Sunday, October 04, 2015
The next scheduled update will be issued at 4:30 pm

Marine Synopsis –

**A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT** As Hurricane Joaquin’s makes its approach, winds increase tropical storm force to storm force this afternoon with a period of hurricane force winds, especially in the west, this evening into the night. Joaquin’s closest point of approach remains near 60 miles, with slow improvement during Monday.

Today –

Winds southeasterly 30 to 40 knots gusts to 50 knots, increasing 40 to 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots later in the afternoon…  Rain and showers with embedded thunderstorms and mainly poor visibility. Building southerly swells… Seas inside the reef 2 to 5 ft… Outside the reef 12 to 18 ft, building…  Sunrise: 7:14 am.

Tonight –

Winds southerly 40 to 50 knots gusts to 60 knots, increasing 55 to 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots, mainly in the west and in elevated areas, decreasing slowly and veering southwesterly overnight…  Rain and showers with embedded thunderstorms and mainly poor visibility. Southerly swells building high… Seas inside the reef 3 to 7 ft… Outside the reef 20 to 35 ft…  Sunset: 7:00 pm.

Monday –

Winds southwesterly 25 to 35 knots gusts to 45 knots, decreasing 20 to 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots by evening, further decreasing 18 to 24 knots with stronger gusts overnight…  Isolated to scattered showers, becoming isolated during the day, with fair to poor visibility… Seas inside the reef 2 to 5 ft… Outside the reef 12 to 20 ft, decreasing during the afternoon inside the reef 2 to 4 ft… Outside the reef 9 to 15 ft…  Sunrise: 7:15 am; Sunset: 6:59 pm.

Tuesday –

Winds southwesterly 16 to 22 knots, decreasing 12 to 18 knots during the morning…  Isolated showers with generally fair visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 7 to 11 ft…  Sunrise: 7:16 am; Sunset: 6:57 pm.

Wednesday –

Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, decreasing 12 to 18 knots during the afternoon…  Isolated to scattered showers with fair to poor visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 5 to 8 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:17 am; Sunset: 6:56 pm.

Thursday –

Winds westerly 12 to 18 knots…  Isolated showers with generally fair visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 2 ft… Outside the reef 5 to 8 ft…  Sunrise: 7:17 am; Sunset: 6:55 pm.


Tides at St George’s (for Great Sound tides, add 10 minutes):
High: 2:30 pm this afternoon: 1.1m/3.6ft, 2:57 am tonight: 1m/3.3ft
Low: 9:14 pm this evening: 0.4m/1.3ft, 9:20 am Monday: 0.4m/1.3ft
Sea Surface Temperature: 26.9°C/80.4°F
Meteorologist: Fred Byrley, Observer: Chris Black

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 021452

WTNT21 KNHC 041450
TCMAT1

HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 66.8W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT……. 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…….160NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 420SE 300SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 66.8W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 67.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 32.8N 65.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.8N 64.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.6N 62.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 38.4N 58.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 42.3N 45.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 200SE 200SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 46.4N 29.9W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 51.4N 19.7W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 66.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

There may be more warnings here: METAREA IV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Caribbean: Tropical Storm Erika 28/1800Z near 17.7N 70.2W, moving W at 15.6 knots (NHC) – Updated 28 Aug 2015 2035z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Erika

…ERIKA SPREADING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

173843W5_NL_sm

000
WTNT35 KNHC 281737
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
200 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

…ERIKA SPREADING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.7N 70.2W
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM SW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 305 MI…490 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Puerto Rico,
Vieques, and Culebra.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Dominican Republic
* Haiti
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas
* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the
progress of Erika.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 70.2 West. Erika has
been moving westward near 18 mph (30 km/h) for the past several
hours. A motion toward the west-northwest is expected to being
later this afternoon or tonight and continue through Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican
Republic and Haiti during the next few hours, move near the Turks
and Caicos Islands tonight, and move near the central and
northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast this afternoon and tonight as
Erika moves over land, followed by little change in strength through
Saturday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
to the east of the center. Punta Cana at the eastern end of the
Dominican Republic has been reporting wind gusts of 40 mph (64 km/h)
for the past few hours.

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data
and surface observations is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently spreading across
portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to spread across Haiti this afternoon, the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later this afternoon and
tonight, and the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday
night.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern and central Bahamas through Saturday.
An additional 1 to 2 inches is expected for Puerto Rico. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Local Statements  

TSR N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 28 Aug, 2015 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ERIKA (AL05) currently located near 17.9 N 71.2 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Dominican Republic
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Haiti
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    the Bahamas
        probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Santo Domingo (18.7 N, 69.9 W)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201505N 28

Other Reports
Dr. Jeff Masters’ Blog
By Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:23 AM EDT on August 27, 2015
Director of Meteorology, Weather Underground
Map of the Caribbean by the CIA World Factbook

Map of the Caribbean by the CIA World Factbook

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm2

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1444

WTNT25 KNHC 281444 RRB
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 69.4W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 68.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.3N 71.4W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…130NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.8N 74.5W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…130NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.3N 77.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…120NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.5N 79.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…120NE 110SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.0N 81.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 28.5N 82.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 30.5N 82.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 69.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BEVEN=

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA IV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Bahamas: Up to 30 Haitian migrants drown after sinking, over 100 others rescued – 281113 1258z

Haitian migrants drown after sinking in the Bahamas

BBC 27 November 2013 Last updated at 02:17Z (GMT/UTC)

Up to 30 migrants from Haiti have drowned after a vessel ran aground and capsized.

The US Coast Guard said over 100 people has been rescued from the overturned boat near Staniel Cay in the Bahamas.

Babita Sharma reports.

The Bahamas: Tornado in Nassau near Lynden PIndling International Airport – 180913 2100z

Reports are coming in about a tornado that touched down in Nassau on September 17th near the Lynden PIndling International Airport around 2:45pm.

Airport employees at Lynden Pindling International Airport in Nassau run as a tornado approaches. (Photo: WSVN-TV)

Tornado-LG.jpg

The photo seen here was tweeted on Twitter: “Tornado near Lynden Pindling International Airport in Nassau, Bahamas. Photo by Ras’Deniro Thompson”

A meteorologist told the Bahamas Tribune that the waterspout turned into a tornado for “a few moments” before dissipating.

No injuries have been reported but several aircraft were damaged.

The Bahamas Department of Meteorology had issued a severe thunderstorm warning until 5 p.m. for the New Providence and North Andros.
Wednesday, 18 September, 2013 at 18:25 (06:25 PM) UTC RSOE

 

Other Reports

Plane overturns at LPIA following a tornado touchdown at airport

An aircraft thrown into the air and on the ground at LPIA minutes ago following a tornado.

Breaking News coming into Bahamas Press confirms a scary tornado has touched down at LPIA suspending service for a few minutes.

The breaking news developed as dark clouds swirlled around the nations gateway. No one was injured, but a small aircraft was thrown over and rested upside down on the tarmac while others were spinning like toys out of control.

BP is live on the ground in the area and, although no one was hurt, the high winds and power of the tornado did make the area scary.

What next will hit the West? We have dead bodies showing up at Clifton. People vanishing at Clifton. Weapons coming in at Clifton. Deadly Toads in Lyford Cay WHAT NEXT?

Meanwhile, Bahamas Press is reporting an accident on Mackey Street, which has thrown that area into darkness BP IS LIVE ON THE GROUND reporting..

LPIA under tornado watch today…

LPIA scare as tornado touches down.

Tornado touches down in Nassau, Bahamas by Lynden Pindling Intl Airport
By The Bahamas Weekly News Team
Sep 18, 2013 – 12:25:05 PM

Other Videos

Amazing Water Spout in The Bahamas

(Video credit: Noo Generashun)

Published on Sep 17, 2013

Video footage shot by Neil Knowles (Facebook link)

Tornado Touches Down @ LPIA


(Video credit: ZNSNetwork) Published on Sep 18, 2013

Bahamas: Fire breaks out on Royal Caribbean cruise ship carrying 2,200+ passengers and 796 crew, all safe and accounted for – 280513 1205z

Fire breaks out on Royal Caribbean cruise ship carrying over 2,000 passengers

(Video credit: Oscars2013)

Published on 27 May 2013

Terror on the high seas: Devastating fire breaks out on Royal Caribbean cruise ship carrying over 2,000 passengers.A fire broke out aboard a Royal Caribbean ship on Monday morning but was extinguished about two hours later with no injuries reported The Grandeur of the Seas, which left Baltimore on Friday, never lost power and was able to sail into port in Freeport, Bahamas, on Monday afternoon The company said the more than 2,200 passengers will be flown from the Bahamas back to Baltimore where the trip began Royal Caribbean said all guests and 796 crew were safe and accounted for

A huge fire broke out on a Royal Caribbean cruise ship last night forcing the two thousand passengers to abandon their rooms on board and prepare to get into life boats.

The Grandeur of the Seas was forced to return to port this morning after the rear of the ship caught fire sending smoke into several hallways and keeping several passengers in assembly stations for over four hours.

Monday afternoon Royal Caribbean made the startling announcement that that they were reversing a prior decision and cancelling the Grandeur of the Seas cruise when it was determined it could no longer safely take passengers to the Bahamas, its intended destination.

Passenger Bang Warren was one of those passengers who had to evacuate her room as a warning horn blared over the sound system.

She described the scene chaotic to The Baltimore Sun, saying, ‘A lot of people were passing out with fear.’

Bang also said she saw crew members distributing oxygen masks and life vests. She also says that, ‘I know some children were vomiting.’

Photos of the ship emerged on social media showing that the entire rear of the ship was charred and destroyed.

Royal Caribbean announced that the 2,224 passengers would be receiving a full refund and a gift certificate from the company.

Another passenger, Danielle Miller, 23, said that she was sound asleep and was unaware of anything untoward until the ship’s intercom asked passengers to put life jackets on.

‘My first thought was that we were sinking,’ said Danielle of her terror.

‘I opened the door and just see people running around with life jackets on and we were being yelled at to get our life jackets on and run up to a deck that was two floors above us,’ she told ABC News.

‘But we didn’t know what was going on because when we were going to bed it was really stormy, so we honestly thought the boat might have been sinking. And we were just panicking and running upstairs.

‘And we didn’t know for about a half hour that there was a fire two decks below where we were at.’

Miller revealed she was so nervous as the fire raged that her hands were shaking and her heart was pounding.

‘A couple people fainted. People were throwing up, crying. Just anxiety attacks everywhere. I was just telling my roommate stay calm,’ she said.

Fire breaks out on Royal Carribean cruise ship

(Video credit: CNN)

Published on 27 May 2013

A Royal Caribbean cruise ship bound for the Bahamas catches fire. CNN’s Erin McPike reports.

Flights being set up for passengers after cruise ship fire

(Video credit: Hollywood2NYIsback)

Published on 28 May 2013

A fire that broke out aboard a Royal Caribbean ship Monday did enough damage that the rest of the cruise was canceled and the company said the more than 2,200 passengers will be flown from the Bahamas back to Baltimore where the trip began.
The fire that began at 2:50 a.m. Monday was extinguished about two hours later with no injuries reported. A cause wasn’t immediately known. The Grandeur of the Seas, which left Baltimore on Friday, never lost power and was able to sail into port in Freeport, Bahamas, Monday afternoon. It had been planned to be a seven-night cruise.
Royal Caribbean said on its website and through social media that executives met with passengers in port and that the cruise line is arranging flights for all 2,224 guests on Tuesday. It said passengers will receive a full refund of their fare and a certificate for a future cruise.

Passenger: Crew ‘Spectacularly Calm’ During Fire

(Video credit: AssociatedPress)

Published on 28 May 2013

Cruise ship passenger Mark J. Ormesher is praising the conduct of the crew, after the fire on board the Royal Caribbean Grandeur of the Seas cruise ship. 2,200 passengers are being flown back to the US, after a fire on board the ship. (May 28)

TD #PATTY, which was near the Bahamas, has dissipated – 131012 1535Z

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com)
Storm-Centered Satellite Image
(Click image for source)

(Image: weather.bm)
Radar Doppler Bahamas
(Click image for animation/source)

WTNT31 KNHC 131431
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162012
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...PATTY NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 72.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF PATTY WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. THE TROUGH IS MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THAT GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON PATTY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Isaac: Forecasters project the Pearl River to crest Monday at 19.5 feet, more than five feet above flood stage – Updated 02 Sept 2012 1447Z

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Five Day Track
(Click image for source)

(Image: NOAA)
HPC QPF for Tropical Depression Isaac
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS NOAA)
Current Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Watches, warnings, and advisories in effect across much of the southern United States.
(Click on the map for details. Click reload or refresh to update the map)

(Image: weather.gov)
New Orleans/Baton Rouge Long Range Radar
(Click image for source)

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=dgx&product=N0R&loop=no

(Image: NWS)
NWS Jackson, MS Radar
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS)
NWS Shreveport, LA Radar
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS)
Short Range New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS)
NWS Little Rock, AR Radar
(Click for source)

(Image: NWS New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA)
Isaac Impacts

Enhanced Radar Mosaic Loop SE Sector

NHC Experimental Videocast Service

(Scroll down for video from Andros Island, Bahamas

wwltv.com

Posted on September 1, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Updated 01 Sept 2012 2103Z

(Image: wwltv.com)

Update 02 Sept 2012 1442Z:

Forecasters project the Pearl River to crest Monday at 19.5 feet, more than five feet above flood stage. That will result in “major flooding” of at least two subdivisions near the banks and threaten areas in the southeastern corner of the parish, according to the National Weather Service.

See: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/09/02/us/severe-weather/index.html

Flash Flood Warning

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

LAC103-022000-
/O.CON.KLIX.FF.W.0081.000000T0000Z-120902T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ST. TAMMANY LA-
1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR
EAST-CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH...

ST TAMMANY PARISH OFFICIALS HAVE DOWNGRADED THE MANDATORY EVACUATION
TO A VOLUNTARY EVACUTATION FOR RESIDENTS BETWEEN LOCK AND DAM NUMBER
2 AND LOCK AND DAM NUMBER ONE ON THE PEARL RIVER DIVERSION CANAL
ABOVE HICKORY.

THERE STILL REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BUT THE WATER LEVELS
WITHIN THE LOCKS HAVE BEEN LOWERED. INTERESTS IN THE AREA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND LISTEN TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM
PARISH OFFICIALS. ENGINEERS CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ASSESS THE
INTEGRITY OF THE STRUCTURE.

LAT...LON 3059 8981 3057 8981 3051 8976 3042 8974
      3042 8978 3047 8981 3051 8982 3054 8987
      3059 8987

$$

24/RR

Flood Warning

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
914 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...

THE TCHEFUNCTE RIVER ABOVE US HIGHWAY 190 NEAR COVINGTON AFFECTING ST.
TAMMANY PARISH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-032014-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-120904T1330Z/
/CUSL1.2.ER.000000T0000Z.120831T2300Z.120904T0730Z.NO/
914 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR
  THE TCHEFUNCTE RIVER ABOVE US HIGHWAY 190 NEAR COVINGTON.
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT  8:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.8 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE STAGE BY
  EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...TCHEFUNCTE CAMP GROUNDS WILL BE UNDER A FEW
  INCHES OF WATER. THE GOODBEE COMMUMUNITY IS THREATENED WITH
  FLOODING. WATER WILL INVADE CAMP TCHEFUNCTE`S PARKING LOT. VEHICLES
  MUST BE REMOVED TO HIGHER GROUND
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...WATER WILL INVADE CAMP TCHEFUNCTE`S PARKING
  LOT. VEHICLES MUST BE REMOVED TO HIGHER GROUND
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...THE CAMP TCHEFUNCTE SOFTBALL FIELD WILL BE
  UNDER WATER. THE CAMP PARKING LOT IS THREATENED WITH FLOODING AND
  VEHICLES ARE ADVISED TO BE MOVED IF HIGHER RIVER STAGES ARE
  ANTICIPATED.

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
1036 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...

THE BOGUE CHITTO RIVER AT FRANKLINTON AFFECTING WASHINGTON PARISH

THE BOGUE CHITTO RIVER NEAR BUSH AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY PARISH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-032136-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-120907T0900Z/
/BSHL1.3.ER.120831T0040Z.120902T1045Z.120907T0300Z.NR/
1036 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD
WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BOGUE CHITTO RIVER NEAR BUSH.
* UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT 10:15 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.7 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
  THURSDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...HOMES NEAR THE RIVER ALONG LOUISIANA HIGHWAY
  21 WILL BE MODERATELY FLOODED. THE ACCESS ROAD UPSTREAM OF THE
  BRIDGE WILL REMAIN INUNDATED
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS ON THE DOWNSTREAM
  SIDE OF LOUISIANA HIGHWAY  21 NEAR THE BRIDGE WILL FLOOD. THE
  ACCESS ROAD UPSTREAM OF THE BRIDGE WILL REMAIN INUNDATED
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE ACCESS ROAD UPSTREAM OF THE BRIDGE WILL
  FLOOD. THE RIVER WILL LEAVE THE MAIN CHANNEL ON THE LEFT BANK BELOW
  THE BRIDGE FLOODING WOODLANDS ON EITHER SIDE OF LOUISIANA HIGHWAY
  21
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...GRAVEL PITS UPSTREAM OF LOUISIANA HIGHWAY 21
  WILL BEGIN TO OVERFLOW THREATENING PROPERTY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
  EITHER SIDE OF HIGHWAY 21 IN THE VICINITY OF THE BRIDGE.

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
1029 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR BOGALUSA AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...
HANCOCK AND PEARL RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR PEARL RIVER AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY...HANCOCK AND
PEARL RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-117-MSC045-109-032129-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BXAL1.2.ER.000000T0000Z.120902T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1029 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER NEAR BOGALUSA.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 10:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.9 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CREST AND REMAIN AT OR
  NEAR 21.0 FEET FROM NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THE RIVER
  IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY FALLING THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 21.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND CROP ACREAGE ALONG THE RIVER
  WILL BE FLOODED. THE BOGUE CHITTO WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA WILL BE
  INUNDATED WITH WATER IN RECREATIONAL CAMPS AND OVER ACCESS ROADS.
  AT 21 FEET PROPERTY EAST OF LOUISIANA HIGHWAY 21 ALONG BOGALUSA
  CREEK WILL BEGIN TO FLOOD
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND CROP ACREAGE ALONG THE RIVER
  WILL BE FLOODED. THE BOGUE CHITTO WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA WILL BE
  INUNDATED WITH WATER IN RECREATIONAL CAMPS AND OVER ACCESS ROADS
* IMPACT...AT 18.5 FEET...WOODLANDS AND CROP ACREAGE ALONG THE RIVER
  WILL BE FLOODED. THE BOGUE CHITTO WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA WILL BE
  INUNDATED WITH WATER IN RECREATIONAL CAMPS AND OVER ACCESS ROADS
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND CROP ACREAGE ALONG THE RIVER
  WILL BE FLOODED.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...WOODLANDS ALONG THE RIVER AND WILDLIFE
  MANAGEMENT PROPERTY WILL BE FLOODED.

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
1029 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR BOGALUSA AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...
HANCOCK AND PEARL RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR PEARL RIVER AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY...HANCOCK AND
PEARL RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-MSC045-109-032129-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PERL1.3.ER.120831T0030Z.120904T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1029 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER NEAR PEARL RIVER.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 10:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.7 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING UNTIL SLOWLY
  CRESTING AT AROUND 19.5 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER IS
  EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY FALLING THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...THERE WILL BE MAJOR FLOODING OF RIVER
  GARDENS AND MODERATE FLOODING OF LOWER PORTIONS IN MAGNOLIA FOREST
  SUBDIVISIONS. SUBDIVISIONS SOUTH OF I-10 AND EAST OF MILITARY ROAD
  WILL BE THREATENED WITH FLOODING. THE INDIAN VILLAGE ROAD ACCESS TO
  RIVER OAKS SUBDIVISION WILL BE UNDER WATER AT SEVERAL PLACES
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...RIVER GARDENS SUBDIVISION WILL BE MODERATELY
  FLOODED WITH SEVERAL STREETS IMPASSABLE AND A FEW HOMES FLOODED IN
  THE VICINITY OF GUM BAYOU. A FEW HOMES WILL ALSO BE THREATENED IN
  MAGNOLIA FOREST. SECONDARY ROADS TO THE RIVER AND THROUGHOUT HONEY
  ISLAND SWAMP WILL REMAIN INUNDATED
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...WATER ON LOW LYING PROPERTY AND OVER THE
  LOWER PORTIONS OF STREETS IN RIVER GARDENS SUBDIVISION WILL SLOWLY
  BEGIN TO DRAIN
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...LOWER PORTIONS OF STREETS IN RIVER GARDENS
  SUBDIVISION WILL BEGIN TO FLOOD. SECONDARY ROADS TO THE RIVER AND
  THROUGHOUT HONEY ISLAND SWAMP WILL REMAIN INUNDATED. PROPERTY IN
  THE VICINITY OF THE GAGE IS FLOODED THREATENING ABOUT 20 HOMES
  ALONG THE LEFT BANK.  THE BOGUE CHITTO NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE
  WILL BE CLOSED TO HUNTING AT THE 15.5 FOOT STAGE
* IMPACT...AT 15.5 FEET...SECONDARY ROADS TO THE RIVER AND THROUGHOUT
  HONEY ISLAND SWAMP ARE INUNDATED. PROPERTY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
  GAGE IS FLOODED THREATENING ABOUT 20 HOMES ALONG THE LEFT BANK.
  THE BOGUE CHITTO NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE WILL BE CLOSED TO HUNTING
  AT THE 15.5 FOOT STAGE.

Update 02 Sept 2012 2010Z:

ST TAMMANY PARISH, LA (WLOX) – Officials in St. Tammany Parish in Louisiana say the danger of a lock failing on a Pearl River Canal has eased.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers worked overnight to stabilize the lock.

A mandatory evacuation is no longer in effect, for those Louisiana residents. However, officials are maintaining a voluntary evacuation status for people in hundreds of homes near Lock Number 2 on the canal.

Any potential danger from Lock Number 2 failing would not effect Mississippi, according to the National Weather Service.

wwltv.com:

Posted on September 1, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Updated today at 10:36 AM

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: The Army Corps of Engineers is at the site on Lock 2. They were able to relieve the pressure by lowering the level of the water upstream to the to the lowest level possible. They are conducting tests to determine the structural integrity now. The evacuation is now voluntary.


Eyes in St. Tammany Parish are still honed in on the Pearl River.

A mandatory evacuation has been in place for most of the day along the Pearl River Diversion Canal because of an unstable lock holding back the river’s swollen waters due to Hurricane Isaac.

It was estimated that if water got around the lock, that it could reach a height of 11 feet.

A valve was opened to help relieve pressure and water was starting to get lower, but the Army Corps planned to stay on site and monitor the situation. The mandatory evacuation remained in place as of 10 p.m.

wspa.com UPDATE: August 31, 12:43 a.m.

Isaac Weakens To Tropical Depression

Isaac is now a Tropical depression centered near southern Arkansas. Winds continue to upwards to 30 miles-per hour. It is expected to move northward through the Mississippi River Valley before moving into the Ohio River Valley by Saturday night.

A Tornado Watch is in effect for all of central and southern Mississippi, as well as portions of southeast Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Leslie has formed in the Atlantic Ocean and has maximum sustained winds at 50 miles-per hour. It is moving west at 18 miles-per hour. It is projected to move west toward Puerto Rico by Sunday.

Hurricane Kirk remains well out in the Atlantic and is not a threat to land. As of 11 p.m., wind gusts were 100 miles per-hour and moving north northwest at 12 miles-per hour.

UPDATE: August 30th 2012, 4:40 p.m.

Issac has now been downgraded to a Tropical Depression.

—————————————————————————————————————–

WTNT34 KNHC 301740
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  38A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
100 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

…SLOW-MOVING ISAAC DRENCHING SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI WITH HEAVY RAINFALL…
…SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE CONTINUES…

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…32.2N 92.3W
ABOUT 25 MI…45 KM SW OF MONROE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER…
INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
LOUISIANA TODAY…OVER ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY…AND OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H… WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER LAND…AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES…315
KM…MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER AND ALSO
ALONG THE COASTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS 992 MB…29.29 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
EVEN THOUGH ISAAC IS NO LONGER A HURRICANE…LIFE-THREATENING
HAZARDS FROM STORM SURGE…INLAND FLOODING…AND TORNADOES ARE
STILL OCCURRING.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND
IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

* MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA…4 TO 8 FT
* ALABAMA…2 TO 4 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA…1 TO 3 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE…1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS.  SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES.  FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.  NEAR THE
COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAGES…AT
NEW CANAL STATION LOUISIANA…A STORM SURGE OF NEAR 6 FEET IS
PERSISTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN…AND A
STORM SURGE VALUE OF NEAR 5 FEET CONTINUES AT WAVELAND MISSISSIPPI.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL…ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 7 TO 14 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE…OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOUISIANA….MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI…SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA…ARKANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
LOWLAND FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE SPREADING
EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-WEST AND OHIO VALLEY
REGIONS.

TORNADOES…TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
TODAY.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Spanish:

WTNT34 TJSJ 301740
TCPAT4

BOLETÍN
TORMENTA TROPICAL ISAAC ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 38A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL092012
100 PM CDT jue 30 de agosto 2012

… De lento movimiento ISAAC empapando SURESTE DE LOUISIANA Y
MISSISSIPPI CON LLUVIA FUERTE …
MAREJADA SIGNIFICATIVO … CONTINÚA …

RESUMEN DE LAS 100 PM CDT … 1800 UTC … INFORMACIÓN
———————————————-
UBICACIÓN … 32.2N 92.3W
ACERCA DE MI 25 … 45 KM SW DE MONROE LOUISIANA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 40 MPH … 65 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … NNW O 330 GRADOS A 9 MPH … 15 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 992 MB … 29.29 PULGADAS

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——————–
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

NINGUNO.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE MISSISSIPPI Y ALABAMA …
Incluyendo el lago Pontchartrain y MAUREPAS LAGO

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … FAVOR MONITOREAR
LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA
OFICINA.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
——————————
A LAS 100 PM CDT … 1800 UTC … EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL Isaac
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.2 NORTE … LONGITUD 92.3 OESTE. Isaac es
MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH … 15 KM / H. UN GIRO
HACIA EL NORTE SE ESPERA POR LA TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL VIERNES. EN EL
PREVISIÓN TRAYECTORIA … EL CENTRO DE ISAAC CONTINUARA MOVIENDOSE SOBRE
LOUISIANA HOY … OVER ARKANSAS EL VIERNES … Y SOBRE EL SUR
MISSOURI VIERNES POR LA NOCHE.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH … 65 KM / H. .. CON MAYOR
RAFAGAS. DEBILITAMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS COMO LA TORMENTA
Continúa moviéndose SOBRE TIERRA … Y SE ESPERA QUE ISAAC HAZTE
DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL ESTA TARDE O NOCHE.

Tormenta tropical vientos con fuerza EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 195 MILLAS … 315
KM … MAYORMENTE AL SURESTE DEL CENTRO SOBRE EL AGUA Y TAMBIÉN
A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI Y EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA BASADA EN LA SUPERFICIE DE CERCA
OBSERVACIONES 992 MB … 29.29 PULGADAS.

RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
———————-
Aunque Isaac YA NO ES UN HURACAN … que amenaza la vida
LOS PELIGROS DE LAS INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA … INTERIOR … Y TORNADOS SON
Sigue produciendo.

MAREJADA … LA COMBINACIÓN DE UNA MAREJADA Y MAREA LA VOLUNTAD
CAUSA áreas normalmente secas CERCA DE LA COSTA ser inundado por la subida
AGUAS. El agua podría llegar a las profundidades SIGUIENTES sobre el suelo
SI SURGE EL PICO SE PRODUCE EN EL MOMENTO DE MAREA ALTA …

* Mississippi y Louisiana … SURESTE DE 4 A 8 FT
* ALABAMA … 2 A 4 PIES
* CENTRO-SUR DE LOUISIANA … 1 a 3 pies
* Panhandle de Florida … 1 a 2 pies

Las aguas más profundas OCURRE LO LARGO DE LA COSTA INMEDIATA EN LAS ZONAS DE
VIENTOS HACIA TIERRA. SURGE inundaciones relacionadas DEPENDE DEL PARIENTE
MOMENTO DE LA MAREJADA Y EL CICLO DE MAREA … y puede variar mucho a lo largo
Distancias cortas. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … FAVOR
VER PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO. CERCA DE LA
COSTA … LA MAREJADA SERÁN ACOMPAÑADOS POR OLAS GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS.

Basándose en las observaciones de la National mareógrafos Servicio Oceánico … AT
NUEVO CANAL DE LA ESTACIÓN DE LOUISIANA … una marejada de cerca de 6 pies es
PERSISTIENDO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUR DE lago Pontchartrain … Y UN
VALOR DE LA MAREJADA CERCA DE 5 PIES EN CONTINUA Waveland.

VIENTO … CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE CONTINUARA A TRAVES DE LA ATENCIÓN
ÁREA DE HASTA ESTA TARDE.

LLUVIA … ISAAC SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 7 A 14 PULGADAS … CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 25 PULGADAS
POSIBLE … MÁS DE NORTE Y ESTE DE LOUISIANA …. MUCHO DE
MISSISSIPPI … SUROESTE DE ALABAMA … ARKANSAS Y EN EL SUR
MISSOURI A VIERNES. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR UNA CONSIDERABLE
TIERRAS BAJAS INUNDACIONES. EL POTENCIAL DE LLUVIAS FUERTES SE DIFUSIÓN
AL ESTE ESTE FIN DE SEMANA EN PARTES DE LA MITAD OCCIDENTAL Y VALLE DE OHIO
REGIONES.

TORNADOS … TORNADOS SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO
REGIÓN Y PARTES DE LA BAJA POR valle del río Mississippi
HOY.

SURF SURF … RIP PELIGROSO Y CONDICIONES ACTUALES CONTINUARA
AFECTAR LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA Y LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DE
PROXIMOS DIAS.

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
————-
ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA … 400 PM CDT.

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART

Hurricane Local Statements for ISAAC

Issuing WFO Homepage Hurricane Local Statement
Shreveport, LA 1248 PM CDT THU AUG 30
New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA 1040 AM CDT THU AUG 30
Jackson, MS 1036 AM CDT THU AUG 30
Lake Charles, LA 1019 AM CDT THU AUG 30
San Angelo, TX 655 AM CDT THU AUG 30

21 Aug 2012: Tropical Storm Isaac poses possible threat to GOP convention in Florida

22 Aug 2012:

The Weather Channel (www.weather.com):

Tropical Storm Isaac is forecast to continue strengthening steadily as it moves through the northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday and into the northeast Caribbean by Thursday. Isaac could become a hurricane as early as Thursday.

Residents and visitors of the northern Caribbean, Yucatan Peninsula, southeastern United States and the central/eastern Gulf Coast should watch the progress of Isaac closely over the next week or more.

Initial impacts from Isaac will be felt in the northeastern Caribbean islands Wednesday into Thursday. Numerous watches and warnings have been issued, including a hurricane watch for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the southern Dominican Republic. Puerto Rico will see its greatest impacts from Isaac on Thursday.

(TRACK ISAAC: Interactive hurricane tracker)

The Weather Channel (www.weather.com):
Tormenta tropical Isaac se prevé continuar fortaleciendo constantemente mientras se mueve a través de las Antillas menores del Norte el miércoles y en el Caribe noreste para el jueves. Isaac podría convertirse en un huracán tan pronto como el jueves.
Los residentes y visitantes de el Caribe Norte, Península de Yucatán, sureste de Estados Unidos y el central y oriental del Golfo deben vigilar el progreso de Isaac estrechamente la próxima semana o más.
Impactos iniciales de Isaac se sentirán en las Islas del Caribe noreste el miércoles al jueves. Se han publicado numerosos relojes y advertencias, incluyendo una vigilancia de huracán para Puerto Rico, las Islas Vírgenes y República Dominicana del Sur. Puerto Rico verá sus mayores impactos de Isaac el jueves.
The Weather Channel (www.weather.com) :
Tempête tropicale Isaac prévoit continuer renforcer régulièrement lorsqu’il se déplace à travers les petites Antilles du Nord, le mercredi et dans les Caraïbes du nord-est par jeudi. Isaac pourrait devenir un ouragan dès jeudi.
Résidents et visiteurs de la Caraïbe du Nord, péninsule du Yucatan, sud-est des États-Unis et le central/eastern Gulf Coast devraient surveiller les progrès d’Isaac étroitement au cours de la semaine prochaine ou plus.
Les impacts initiaux d’Isaac feront sentir dans les îles des Caraïbes du nord-est mercredi à jeudi. Nombreuses veilles et avertissements ont été émis, y compris une veille d’ouragan pour Porto Rico, les îles Vierges américaines et la République dominicaine du Sud. Puerto Rico verra ses répercussions les plus importantes d’Isaac le jeudi.
24 Aug 2012 0856 GMT/UTC:
Haiti, Dominican Republic await Tropical Storm Isaac
Tropical Storm Isaac Storm warnings have already been declared for Puerto Rico and parts of the US Virgin Island  Haiti and the Dominican Republic are braced for a battering as Tropical Storm Isaac approaches Hispaniola, the island shared by the two countries.Some 400,000 Haitians still living in makeshift camps after a deadly earthquake in 2010 are “amongst the most vulnerable”, aid groups warn.Isaac could have become a hurricane by the time it is due to hit the island later today (Friday), meteorologists say – BBC News
Haití, República Dominicana esperan Tormenta Tropical Isaac
Advertencias de tormenta tropical Isaac tormenta ya han sido declaradas para Puerto Rico y partes de la Virgin Island
Haití y República Dominicana son apoyados por una agresión como Tormenta Tropical Isaac se acerca a la española, la isla compartida por los dos países.
Unos 400.000 haitianos siguen viviendo en campamentos improvisados tras un mortífero terremoto en 2010 son “entre los más vulnerables”, advierten grupos de ayuda.
Isaac podría han convertido en un huracán por el momento es debido al éxito la isla hoy (viernes), dicen los meteorólogos – BBC News
Haïti, République dominicaine attendent tempête tropicale Isaac
Avertissements de tempête tropicale Isaac tempête ont déjà été déclarés pour Porto Rico et les parties de l’île vierge US
Haïti et la République dominicaine sont contreventés pour un percutant l’approche de la tempête tropicale Isaac Hispaniola, l’île partagée par les deux pays.
Quelque 400 000 Haïtiens vivent toujours dans des camps de fortune après un tremblement de terre meurtrier en 2010 sont « parmi les plus vulnérables », avertissent les groupes d’aide.
Isaac aurait pu devenir un ouragan au moment où qu’elle est due à succès l’île plus tard aujourd’hui (vendredi), météorologues disent – BBC News
25 Aug 2012 1642 GMT/UTC

TWC: Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Florida Keys sometime Sunday, with conditions to deteriorate in southern Florida throughout the day Sunday.The 11 a.m. advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center reports Isaac’s winds at 60 mph with its pressure at 998 millibars, a slight increase from the advisory three hours earlier. The system was moving northwest at 14 mph.Even though Isaac weakened briefly overnight as it moved over the mountains along the western tip of Hispanola, the tropical storm is expected to strengthen moving forward. The storm’s projected track has shifted slightly to the east, and remained a possible threat to Tampa, Fla., where the Republican National Convention starts Monday.Florida Gov. Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency as Tropical Storm Isaac approaches the state.Scott said the goal was to make sure every local, state and federal agency “has the exact same information” on the storm and preparations in order to make informed decisions. He issued the state of emergency Saturday during a media briefing in Broward County.Dr. Rick Knabb, director of the National Hurricane Center, said the storm has shifted in a way that could lead to Isaac, already a huge tropical storm, to increase in intensity.”Over the last several days we’ve been talking about how interdependent the track intensity forecasts are in this case relative how much time the center of Isaac spends over land on the way from the Caribbean to Florida, said Dr. Rick Knabb, head of the National Hurricane Center on The Weather Channel.”Unfortunately for the U.S., it took a path of least resistence by going in between Haiti and  Cuba. There is still some interaction with terrain there disrupting circulation somewhat. But, compared to yesterday, we’re more confident — unfortunately for Florida — that it’s going to take a path that spends more time over the land mass of Cuba that we thought possible yesterday.”Knabb said he expects conditions to begin “to go downhill” in Florida early Sunday, adding that he is “concerned about southwest Florida, not just the southeast, because they’re very, very vulnerable to storm surge down there, and, as of our 8am advisory, we’re talking about the potential for 5-to-7 feet of storm surge inundation in portions of the coastal areas of southwestern Florida.Said Knabb: “The intensity (of Isaac) even if it remains over water is still uncertain. We can’t 100 percent guarantee that a hurricane is going to cross over the Keys of southern Florida, but the chances are high enough that we’re forecasting that, and there is a hurricane warning down there.”

Spanish:

Tropical Storm Isaac se espera que sea un huracán en el momento en que llegue a los Cayos de la Florida en algún momento del domingo, con las condiciones que se deterioran en el sur de Florida durante todo el día domingo.

De las 11 am aviso emitido por el Centro Nacional de Huracanes informa vientos de Isaac a 60 millas por hora con su presión a 998 milibares, un ligero aumento de los asesores tres horas antes. El sistema se movía hacia el noroeste a 14 mph.

A pesar de que Isaac se debilitó brevemente durante la noche mientras se movía sobre las montañas a lo largo de la punta occidental de la Española, la tormenta tropical se espera que se fortalezca hacia adelante. Pista proyectada de la tormenta se ha desplazado ligeramente hacia el este, y se mantuvo una posible amenaza a Tampa, Florida, donde la Convención Nacional Republicana comienza el lunes.

Gobernador de Florida, Rick Scott ha declarado el estado de emergencia como la tormenta tropical Isaac se acerca al estado.

Scott dijo que el objetivo era asegurarse de que todas las agencias locales, estatales y federal “tiene la misma información” sobre la tormenta y los preparativos con el fin de tomar decisiones informadas. Emitió el estado de emergencia el sábado durante una rueda de prensa en el condado de Broward.

Dr. Rick Knabb, director del Centro Nacional de Huracanes, dijo que la tormenta ha pasado de una manera que podría llevar a Isaac, ya es una tormenta tropical enorme, aumentando en intensidad.

“En los últimos días hemos estado hablando de cómo interdependiente de los pronósticos de intensidad de pesca son en este caso relativo cuánto tiempo el centro de Isaac pasa por la tierra en el camino desde el Caribe hasta Florida, dijo el Dr. Rick Knabb, jefe de el Centro Nacional de Huracanes en The Weather Channel.

“Desafortunadamente para los EE.UU., tomó el camino de menor resistencia yendo entre Haití y Cuba Todavía hay cierta interacción con el terreno no interrumpir la circulación de alguna manera, pero, en comparación con ayer, estamos más seguros -.. Desafortunadamente para Florida – – que va a tomar un camino que pasa más tiempo en la masa de tierra de Cuba que creíamos posible ayer “.

Knabb dijo que espera que las condiciones para comenzar “a ir cuesta abajo” en Florida la madrugada del domingo, y agregó que está “preocupado por el suroeste de Florida, no sólo el sureste, ya que son muy, muy vulnerables a la marejada ciclónica allá abajo, y, a partir de 08 a.m. nuestro asesoramiento, estamos hablando de la posibilidad de que de 5 a 7 pies de inundación de mareas de tempestad en las partes de las zonas costeras del suroeste de Florida.

Dicho Knabb:. “La intensidad (de Isaac), incluso si permanece sobre el agua es aún incierto Podemos no es 100 por ciento de garantía de que un huracán va a cruzar los Cayos del sur de Florida, pero las ocasiones son lo suficientemente alto que nosotros” volver a pronosticar que, y hay una advertencia de huracán ahí abajo “.

French:

La tempête tropicale Isaac devrait être un ouragan au moment où il atteint parfois les Keys de Floride dimanche, avec des conditions à se détériorer dans le sud de la Floride pendant toute la journée du dimanche.

De 11 heures consultatif émis par le Centre national des ouragans rapporte vents d’Isaac à 60 mph avec sa pression de 998 millibars, soit une légère hausse dans les trois heures plus tôt consultatifs. Le système se déplaçait au nord-ouest à 14 mph.

Même si Isaac affaibli brièvement durant la nuit pendant qu’il se déplaçait sur les montagnes le long de la pointe ouest de l’Hispaniola, la tempête tropicale devrait se renforcer aller de l’avant. La trajectoire prévue de la tempête s’est déplacée légèrement à l’est, et demeure une menace possible à Tampa, en Floride, où la Convention nationale républicaine commence lundi.

Floride gouverneur Rick Scott a déclaré l’état d’urgence alors que la tempête tropicale Isaac se rapproche de l’état.

Scott a déclaré que le but était de s’assurer que chaque local, organisme étatique et fédéral »a exactement les mêmes informations” sur la tempête et les préparatifs en vue de prendre des décisions éclairées. Il a émis l’état d’urgence samedi lors d’une conférence de presse à Broward County.

Dr. Rick Knabb, directeur du National Hurricane Center, a déclaré la tempête s’est déplacée d’une manière qui pourrait conduire à Isaac, déjà une énorme tempête tropicale, à augmenter en intensité.

«Au cours des derniers jours, nous avons parlé de la façon dont interdépendant, les prévisions d’intensité de piste sont dans ce cas par rapport combien de temps le centre d’Isaac passe sur la terre sur le chemin de la Caraïbe en Floride, a déclaré le Dr Rick Knabb, chef de le Centre national des ouragans sur The Weather Channel.

“Malheureusement pour les Etats-Unis, il a fallu un chemin de moindre résistance en allant entre Haïti et Cuba Il ya encore une certaine interaction avec le terrain il perturber la circulation un peu Mais, par rapport à hier, nous sommes plus confiants -.. Malheureusement pour la Floride – – que ça va prendre un chemin qui passe plus de temps sur la masse terrestre de Cuba que nous pensions possible hier “.

Knabb a dit qu’il s’attend à ce que les conditions pour commencer “à descendre” en Floride dimanche matin, ajoutant qu’il est «préoccupé sud-ouest de la Floride, et pas seulement le sud-est, parce qu’ils sont très, très vulnérable à une onde de tempête là-bas, et, comme d’ 8 heures de notre conseil, nous parlons de la possibilité pour le 5-à-7 pieds d’inondation des ondes de tempête dans les parties des zones côtières du sud-ouest de la Floride.

Knabb dit:. “L’intensité (d’Isaac), même si elle reste au-dessus de l’eau est encore incertain Nous ne pouvons pas garantir à 100 pour cent que l’ouragan va traverser les Keys de la Floride du Sud, mais les chances sont assez élevées que nous re prévision de cela, et il ya un ouragan en garde là-bas. ”

25 Aug 2012 2017 GMT/UTC:
Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:24 PM GMT on August 25, 2012:
Tropical Storm Isaac is pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rains that are causing extremely dangerous flooding and landslides. Isaac’s center passed over Haiti’s southwest peninsula early this morning, tracking about 50 miles west of the capital of Port-au-Prince. As the center pulled away to the northwest, Isaac’s heaviest thunderstorms moved ashore over Hispaniola near sunrise, and are now dumping heavy rains with rainfall rates approaching one inch per hour, according to recent microwave satellite estimates. Barahona on the south coast of the Dominican Republic had received 5.14″ of rain as of 8 am EDT this morning, and it is probable that some mountainous areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic have already received up to 10″ of rain from Isaac. These rains will continue though much of the day, and have the potential to cause high loss of life in Hispaniola.
Spanish:
Tropical Storm Isaac está golpeando Haití y la República Dominicana con lluvias torrenciales que causan inundaciones y deslizamientos de tierra extremadamente peligroso. Centro de Isaac pasó por la península suroeste de Haití esta mañana, el seguimiento de cerca de 50 millas al oeste de la capital, Port-au-Prince. A medida que el centro se alejó hacia el noroeste, más fuertes tormentas de Isaac se trasladó a tierra a través de la salida del sol cerca de la Española, y ahora el dumping fuertes lluvias con la precipitación pluvial que se acerca una pulgada por hora, de acuerdo a las recientes estimaciones de microondas satelitales. Barahona, en la costa sur de la República Dominicana había recibido 5,14 “de lluvia a partir del 8 am EDT esta mañana, y es probable que algunas áreas montañosas de Haití y la República Dominicana ya han recibido hasta 10” de la lluvia de Isaac. Estas lluvias continuarán aunque gran parte del día, y tienen el potencial de causar grandes pérdidas de vida en La Española.
French:
La tempête tropicale Isaac bat Haïti et la République dominicaine avec des pluies torrentielles qui provoquent des inondations et des glissements de terrain extrêmement dangereux. Centre d’Isaac passé sur la péninsule sud-ouest d’Haïti ce matin, à environ 50 miles de suivi à l’ouest de la capitale Port-au-Prince. En tant que centre arrachée au nord-ouest, les plus lourds orages Isaac déplacé à terre sur Hispaniola près lever du soleil, et vident maintenant de fortes pluies avec des taux de précipitations approchant un pouce par heure, selon de récentes estimations satellitaires micro-ondes. Barahona, sur la côte sud de la République dominicaine avait reçu 5.14 “de pluie à partir de 8 h HAE ce matin, et il est probable que certaines régions montagneuses d’Haïti et la République dominicaine ont déjà reçu jusqu’à 10” de pluie Isaac. Ces pluies se poursuivront même si une grande partie de la journée, et ont le potentiel de causer des pertes de vie élevée à Hispaniola.
26 Aug 2012:

Killer Storm Isaac Leaves Four dead in Haiti and one in Dominican Republic

By Associated Press

HAVANA — Tropical Storm Isaac pushed over Cuba on Saturday after sweeping across Haiti’s southern peninsula, where it caused flooding and at least four deaths, adding to the misery of a poor nation still trying to recover from the terrible 2010 earthquake.

Isaac’s center made landfall just before midday near the far-eastern tip of Cuba, downing trees and power lines. In the picturesque city of Baracoa, the storm surge flooded the seaside Malecon and a block inland, destroying two homes.

Forecasters said Isaac poses a threat to Florida Monday and Tuesday, just as the Republican Party gathers for its national convention in Tampa. It could eventually hit the Florida Panhandle as a Category 2 hurricane with winds of nearly 100 mph (160 kph).

Florida Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency, officials urged vacationers to leave the Florida Keys and the U.S. National Hurricane Center said a hurricane warning was in effect there, as well as for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south to Ocean Reef and for Florida Bay.

At least four people were reported dead in Haiti including a 10-year-old girl who had a wall fall on her, according to the country’s Civil Protection Office. There were no immediate details on how the others died.

The government also reported two injuries; “considerable damage” to agriculture and homes; nearly 8,000 people who were evacuated from their houses or quake shelters; and more than 4,000 who were taken to temporary shelters.

Many, however, stayed and suffered.

The Grise River overflowed north of Port-au-Prince, sending chocolate-brown water spilling through the sprawling shantytown of Cite Soleil, where many people grabbed what possessions they could and carried them on their heads, wading through waist-deep water.

“From last night, we’re in misery,” said Cite Soleil resident Jean-Gymar Joseph. “All our children are sleeping in the mud, in the rain.”

Scores of tents in quake settlements collapsed. In a roadside lot in Cite Soleil, the dozens of tents and shelters provided by international groups after the earthquake were tossed to the ground like pieces of crumpled paper, and the occupants tried to save their belongings.

“They promised they were going to build us a sturdy home and it never came,” Jean-Robert Sauviren, an unemployed 63-year-old father of six said as he stood barefoot in the water and held aloft his arms. “Maybe we don’t deserve anything.”

Ricknel Charles, a 42-year-old pastor, sheltered some 50 displaced people in his church.

“This is the only thing I can do for them: give them a place to sleep,” Charles said.

About 300 homes in Cite Soleil lost their roofs or were flooded three feet (one meter) deep, according to Rachel Brumbaugh, operation manager for the U.S. nonprofit group World Vision.

Doctors Without Borders said it anticipated a spike in cholera cases due to flooding and it was preparing to receive more patients.

The international airport reopened by the afternoon but there was still extensive flooding throughout Port-au-Prince after 24 hours of steady rain.

Spanish:

Killer Storm Isaac hojas muertas en Haití Cuatro y uno en la República Dominicana

Por Associated Press

LA HABANA – La tormenta tropical Isaac empujó sobre Cuba el sábado después de barrer a través de la península sur de Haití, donde causó inundaciones y muertes por lo menos cuatro, sumando a la miseria de una nación pobre todavía está tratando de recuperarse de la terrible terremoto de 2010.

Centro de Isaac tocó tierra justo antes del mediodía cerca de la punta extremo oriental de Cuba, los árboles y derribando cables de electricidad. En la pintoresca ciudad de Baracoa, la tormenta inundó el malecón costero y un bloque de tierra adentro, destruyendo dos casas.

Los meteorólogos dijeron que Isaac representa una amenaza a Florida el lunes y martes, al igual que el Partido Republicano se reúne para su convención nacional en Tampa. Con el tiempo, podría llegar a la península de Florida como un huracán de categoría 2 con vientos de casi 100 mph (160 kph).

Gobernador de Florida, Rick Scott, declaró el estado de emergencia, las autoridades instaron a los turistas abandonar los Cayos de la Florida y los EE.UU. Centro Nacional de Huracanes dijo una advertencia de huracán estaba en efecto allí, así como para la costa oeste de Florida desde el sur hasta Bonita Beach Ocean Reef y Florida Bay.

Al menos cuatro personas murieron en Haití, entre ellos una niña de 10 años de edad, quien sufrió una caída en la pared, según la Oficina del país de Protección Civil. No hubo detalles inmediatos sobre la forma en que los otros murieron.

El Gobierno también informó de dos lesiones; “daños considerables” a la agricultura y los hogares; cerca de 8.000 personas que fueron evacuadas de sus casas o refugios del terremoto, y más de 4.000 que fueron llevados a los refugios temporales.

Muchos, sin embargo, se quedó y sufrió.

El Grise desbordes del río al norte de Port-au-Prince, el envío de color chocolate se derrame agua a través de la extensa barriada de Cite Soleil, donde mucha gente lo tomó posesiones que pudieron y los llevó sobre sus cabezas, vadeando a través de agua hasta la cintura.

“Desde anoche, estamos en la miseria”, dijo el residente de Cité Soleil, Jean-Joseph Gymar. “Todos nuestros niños están durmiendo en el barro, bajo la lluvia.”

Decenas de tiendas de campaña en los asentamientos del terremoto derrumbó. En muchas carreteras en Cité Soleil, las docenas de tiendas de campaña y refugios proporcionados por los grupos internacionales tras el terremoto fueron arrojados al suelo como pedazos de papel arrugado, y sus ocupantes trataron de salvar sus pertenencias.

“Nos prometieron que nos iban a construir un hogar estable y nunca llegó”, dijo Jean-Robert Sauviren, un desempleado de 63 años de edad, padre de seis hijos, dijo mientras permanecía de pie descalzo en el agua y en alto sus brazos. “Tal vez no merecemos nada”.

Ricknel Charles, un pastor de 42 años de edad, al abrigo de unas 50 personas desplazadas en su iglesia.

“Esta es la única cosa que puedo hacer por ellos: darles un lugar para dormir”, dijo Charles.

Cerca de 300 viviendas en Cité Soleil quedaron sin techo o se inundaron tres pies (un metro) de profundidad, según Rachel Brumbaugh, gerente de operaciones de la Visión Mundial EE.UU. sin fines de lucro grupo.

Médicos Sin Fronteras dijo que prevé un aumento en los casos de cólera debido a las inundaciones y se prepara para recibir a más pacientes.

El aeropuerto internacional volvió a abrir por la tarde, pero aún había grandes inundaciones en todo Port-au-Prince, después de 24 horas de lluvia continua.

French:

Tueur de tempête Isaac Feuilles Quatre morts en Haïti et l’autre en République Dominicaine

Par Associated Press

LA HAVANE – La tempête tropicale Isaac poussé sur Cuba le samedi après déferle sur la péninsule sud d’Haïti, où il a causé des inondations et au moins quatre morts, en ajoutant à la misère d’un pays pauvre encore en train de se remettre de la terrible tremblement de terre de 2010.

Centre Isaac a touché terre juste avant midi près de la pointe extrême-orientale de Cuba, les arbres et les lignes électriques Downing. Dans la pittoresque ville de Baracoa, l’onde de tempête a inondé le Malecon et un bloc intérieur des terres, détruisant deux maisons.

Les prévisionnistes dit Isaac constitue une menace pour la Floride lundi et mardi, tout comme le Parti républicain se réunit pour sa convention nationale à Tampa. Il pourrait éventuellement frapper la péninsule de la Floride comme un ouragan de catégorie 2 avec des vents de près de 100 mph (160 kmh).

Floride gouverneur Rick Scott a déclaré l’état d’urgence, les responsables demandé aux vacanciers de quitter les Keys de Floride et le US National Hurricane Center dit un avertissement d’ouragan est en vigueur là-bas, ainsi que pour la côte ouest de la Floride du sud pour Bonita Beach Ocean Reef et pour la baie de Floride.

Au moins quatre personnes ont été déclarées mortes en Haïti, y compris une fillette de 10 ans qui a fait une chute sur son mur, selon le Bureau du pays de la protection civile. Il n’y avait pas de détails sur la façon immédiats les autres sont morts.

Le gouvernement a également fait état de deux blessés; “des dégâts considérables” pour l’agriculture et les maisons; près de 8.000 personnes qui ont été évacuées de leurs maisons ou des abris du tremblement de terre, et plus de 4.000 qui ont été prises pour des abris temporaires.

Beaucoup, cependant, sont restés et ont souffert.

La rivière Grise débordé au nord de Port-au-Prince, l’envoi de brun chocolat humidifier le bidonville tentaculaire à travers de Cité Soleil, où beaucoup de gens saisi ce qu’ils pouvaient biens et les emportèrent sur leurs têtes, pataugeant dans l’eau jusqu’à la taille.

“De la nuit dernière, nous sommes dans la misère», a déclaré Cité Soleil résident Jean-Joseph Gymar. «Tous nos enfants dorment dans la boue, sous la pluie.”

Des dizaines de tentes dans les campements du tremblement de terre s’est effondrée. Dans beaucoup en bordure de route à Cité Soleil, des dizaines de tentes et des abris fournis par des groupes internationaux, après le tremblement de terre ont été jetés sur le sol comme des morceaux de papier froissé, et les occupants ont essayé de sauver leurs biens.

“Ils ont promis qu’ils allaient nous construire une maison solide et il n’est jamais venu», Jean-Robert Sauviren, un chômeur de 63 ans, père de six enfants a dit qu’il était pieds nus dans l’eau et a brandi ses bras. “Peut-être que nous ne méritons pas quoi que ce soit.”

Ricknel Charles, un pasteur de 42 ans, à l’abri quelque 50 personnes déplacées dans son église.

«C’est la seule chose que je peux faire pour eux: leur donner un endroit pour dormir», dit Charles.

Environ 300 maisons à Cité Soleil ont perdu leurs toits ont été inondées ou trois pieds (un mètre) de profondeur, selon Rachel Brumbaugh, directrice des opérations pour la vision américaine à but non lucratif du monde groupe.

Médecins Sans Frontières a déclaré qu’il s’attend à un pic de cas de choléra dus aux inondations et il se préparait à recevoir plus de patients.

La réouverture de l’aéroport international de l’après-midi, mais il y avait encore d’importantes inondations à travers Port-au-Prince après 24 heures de pluie continue.

26 Aug 2012 1806 GMT/UTC: About 20 minutes ago – “The center of Tropical Storm #Isaac is 50 miles south-southeast of Key West.”  (@NWSKeyWest)
26 Aug 2012 2351 GMT/UTC: Huge evacuation of BP workers from Gulf #oil rigs now underway – CNN
28 Aug 2012: Organizers, delegates remain concerned about Isaac as RNC gets under way – http://bit.ly/OHLozk

29 Aug 2012:

Leeve overflows: 75 rescued in Plaquemines Parish – 25 still stranded

BRAITHWAITE, La. —  Rescue workers and public citizens rescued 75 people from flooded homes and rooftops from the town of Braithwaite after it was inundated with 10-12 feet of water, Parish President Billy Nungesser said Wednesday morning.Eyewitness News’ Maya Rodriguez said 25 people were still reportedly awaiting rescue on the parish’s east bank on rooftops and in attics. – WWLTV.com
More here
30 Aug 2012:

Dam expected to fail – Mandatory evacuation near Tangipahoa River – risk to 40,000 to 60,000 people

BATON ROUGE — Tangipahoa Parish officials have issued a mandatory evacuation for communities near the Tangipahoa River because Percy Quin Dam in Mississippi is expected to fail, officials said Thursday. The dam in Pike County is in imminent danger of failure due to flooding from Hurricane Isaac, officials said.

U.S. Rep. Steve Scalise announced that parish President Gordon Burgess called for immediate, mandatory evacuation on his Facebook page, saying the dam on Lake Tangipahoa is in “extreme danger” of failing.

The evacuation area runs from Kentwood to Robert along the river, he said.

State Police Superintendent Col. Mike Edmonson said Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness head Kevin Davis was on his way to Tangipahoa to work with Burgess on the evacuation. The National Guard has a helicopter hovering over the dam to monitor the situation, Edmonson said. As of 10:45 the structure was still holding, he said. – nola.com

Gov @BobbyJindal: Could be between 40k-60k people affected by the flooding in Tangipahoa if dam breaks

US: Florida may have a tropical cyclone over the weekend – NASA Updated 24 May 2012 0103GMT/UTC

Possible Tropical Cyclone Development

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) Miami, Florida predicts that a low pressure center affecting southern Florida may develop into a tropical cyclone over the weekend. The TRMM satellite traveled above this area of disturbed weather early this morning at 0429 UTC ( 00:29 AM EDT ) collecting data used in the rainfall analysis shown.

Source: http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/

(Image: NASA)

 

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
840 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE…LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA…HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE…60 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH WITH WIND
GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE…MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT…LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL…FLOODING…AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS…AS WELL AS
CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. INTERESTS ALONG SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.  ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM…PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…AND PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. &&

4. HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART
NNNN