UTC)

November 22, 2019 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG (1927, 28W)

(‘Sarah’ in The Philippines)

TROPICAL STORM “SARAH” FURTHER WEAKENS AND IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) – PAGASA

Miyako Island (Miyakojima) beware!

Ishigaki Island and Okinawa be aware

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 14 FEET – JTWC

Weather warnings for Okinawa-honto Chiho (link)

TS 1927 (Fung-wong)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 22 November 2019


<Analysis at 15 UTC, 22 November>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N24°40′ (24.7°)
	E125°40′ (125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure	1006 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area	SE 70 km (40 NM)
	NW 60 km (30 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 23 November>
Intensity	–
	TD
Center position of probability circle	N26°00′ (26.0°)
	E125°35′ (125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure	1008 hPa
Radius of probability circle	60 km (30 NM)

<Forecast for 15 UTC, 23 November>
Intensity	–
	TD
Center position of probability circle	N28°10′ (28.2°)
	E126°05′ (126.1°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure	1012 hPa
Radius of probability circle	90 km (50 NM)

xxxx

TAIWAN

2019/11/22 12:00, Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG (201927) , Center Location 24.60N 125.50E, Movement: NNE 13KM/HR. Minimum Pressure 998 hpa, Maximum Wind Speed 18m/s, Gust 25m/s, Radius of 15m/s 120km. see: https://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/prevent/typhoon/ty.htm?

Philippines

Tropical Storm”Sarah”

Tropical Cyclone: ALERT

Issued at 11:00 pm, 22 November 2019

(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5:00 am tomorrow.)

TROPICAL STORM “SARAH” FURTHER WEAKENS AND IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR).

“SARAH” is forecast to exit the PAR in the next 6 hours. Continuous weakening is expected.
Sea travel remains risky, especially for small sea crafts, over the seaboards of Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Ilocos Norte due to rough sea conditions associated with the Northeast Monsoon.

Location of Eye/center

At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm “SARAH” was estimated based on all available data at 600 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes (24.9 °N, 125.3 °E )

Movement

Moving North at 20 kph

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph

Forecast Position

24 Hour(Tomorrow evening): 960 km North Northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon(27.8°N, 126.9°E)
48 Hour(Sunday evening):1,825 km Northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon(33.1°N, 133.7°E)

Wind Signal

No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next update to be incorporated in the 4 AM Public Weather Forecast and in the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 Nov, 2019 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG is currently located near 24.0 N 125.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). FUNG-WONG is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

DocR F22

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 221200
WARNING 221200.
WARNING VALID 231200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1927 FUNG-WONG (1927) 1004 HPA
AT 24.3N 125.7E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 25.3N 125.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 27.1N 126.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1012 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

SHANGHAI/ China/ South Korea/ Japan: Severe Tropical Storm MITAG 29/1500Z 30.2°N 122.5°E, moving N 11kt. Wind 60kt Gust 85kt 980 hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 01 Oct 2019 1825Z (GMT/UTC)

October 1, 2019 by Goaty's News UK

Severe Tropical Storm MITAG (1918, 19W)

SHANGHAI China South Korea Japan be aware

STS 1918 (Mitag)
Issued at 15:50 UTC, 1 October 2019


<Analysis at 15 UTC, 1 October>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N30°10′ (30.2°)
	E122°30′ (122.5°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure	980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	NE 440 km (240 NM)
	SW 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 2 October>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N32°35′ (32.6°)
	E124°10′ (124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure	985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle	60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 130 km (70 NM)

<Forecast for 15 UTC, 2 October>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N34°40′ (34.7°)
	E126°30′ (126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure	990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle	90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 3 October>
Intensity	–
	LOW
Center position of probability circle	N37°50′ (37.8°)
	E130°55′ (130.9°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure	992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle	170 km (90 NM)

xxxx

CHINA

Typhoon Message

20191002 01:12

National Meteorological Center No.1122

Analysis Time: Oct. 01th 17 UTC

Name of TC: MITAG

Num. of TC: 1918

Current Location: 30.4°N 122.6°E

Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 25m/s（90km/h）

Central Pressure: 985hPa

Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 300km SE 260km SW 200km NW 280km

Forecast movement: next 24hrs MITAG will moving NNE at speed of 25km/h

TAIWAN

2019/10/01 12:00, Severe Tropical Storm MITAG (201918) , Center Location 29.60N 122.20E, Movement: NNE 22KM/HR. Minimum Pressure 975 hpa, Maximum Wind Speed 30m/s, Gust 38m/s, Radius of 15m/s 180km, Radius of 25m/s 60km.

Severe Tropical Storm MITAG (201918)

》Analysis

1200UTC 01 October 2019
Center Location　29.60N　122.20E
Movement  N  18km/hr
Minimum Pressure  975 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 30 m/s
Gust 38 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 25m/s  60km

》Forecast

12 hours valid at:
0000UTC 02 October 2019
Center Position 31.70N 123.40E
Vector to 12 HR Position
NNE 22 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  980 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 28 m/s
Gust 35 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 70% probability circle 50km
24 hours valid at:
1200UTC 02 October 2019
Center Position 33.90N 125.40E
Vector to 24 HR Position
NE 26 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  985 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 25 m/s
Gust 33 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 70% probability circle 90km
36 hours valid at:
0000UTC 03 October 2019
Center Position 36.10N 127.80E
Vector to 36 HR Position
NE 27 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  988 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 23 m/s
Gust 30 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 70% probability circle 130km
48 hours valid at:
1200UTC 03 October 2019
Center Position 37.10N 130.40E
Vector to 48 HR Position
ENE 21 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  992 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 23 m/s
Gust 30 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 70% probability circle 170km
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW AT 48 HOURS

xxxx

South Korea

No.18 MITAG

Issued at(KST) : 2019.10.02. 01:00

Date(UTC)	Position		Central Pressure (hPa)	Maximum Sustained Wind(m/s)		Radius of 15 m/s(km)	Intensity	Scale	Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 70% probability(km)
Date(UTC)	Lat (N)	Lon (E)	Central Pressure (hPa)	m/s	km/h	Radius of 15 m/s(km)	Intensity	Scale	Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 70% probability(km)
2019.10.01. 15:00 Analysis	30.5	122.6	980	29	104	330 (WSW 270)	Normal	Medium	NNE	20
2019.10.01. 21:00 Forecast	31.4	123.3	980	29	104	320 (W 260)	Normal	Medium	NE	19	24
2019.10.02. 03:00 Forecast	32.4	124.2	980	29	104	300 (W 230)	Normal	Medium	NE	25	48
2019.10.02. 09:00 Forecast	33.5	125.2	985	27	97	280 (WNW 210)	Normal	Small	NE	25	72
2019.10.02. 15:00 Forecast	34.6	126.5	985	27	97	260 (NW 180)	Normal	Small	NE	28	110
2019.10.02. 21:00 Forecast	35.7	128.0	990	24	86	240 (NW 160)	–	Small	NE	31	125
2019.10.03. 03:00 Forecast	36.8	129.9	992	23	83	220 (NW 140)	–	Small	ENE	36	140
2019.10.03. 09:00 Forecast	37.7	132.4	994	21	76	200 (NW 120)	–	Small	ENE	40	155
2019.10.03. 15:00 Forecast	38.1	135.2	994	21	76				E	42

xxxx

TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 1 Oct, 2019 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MITAG is currently located near 30.0 N 122.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). MITAG is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Japan
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Shanghai (31.2 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 96 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 96 hours
    Hangzhou (30.3 N, 120.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

DrR Mitagg

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP31 RJTD 011500
WARNING 011500.
WARNING VALID 021500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1918 MITAG (1918) 980 HPA
AT 30.2N 122.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 32.6N 124.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 34.7N 126.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Yaeyama Islands (Japan)/ Taiwan/ China: TYPHOON LEKIMA 10W 08/1300Z 24.4°N 124.9°E, moving NW 08kt. 925hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 08 Aug 2019 1530Z (GMT/UTC)

August 8, 2019 by Goaty's News UK

TYPHOON LEKIMA 10W 1909

LEKIMA is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. (TSR UCL London -1200 UTC today)

Yaeyama Islands/ (Japan)/Taiwan/ China

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 50 FEET (FIVE ZERO FEET) – JTWC

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

TY 1909 (Lekima)
Issued at 13:45 UTC, 8 August 2019


<Analysis at 13 UTC, 8 August>
Scale	Large
Intensity	Violent
Center position	N24°25′ (24.4°)
	E124°55′ (124.9°)
Direction and speed of movement	NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure	925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	ALL 560 km (300 NM)

<Estimate for 14 UTC, 8 August>
Scale	Large
Intensity	Violent
Center position	N24°30′ (24.5°)
	E124°50′ (124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement	NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure	925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	ALL 560 km (300 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 8 August>
Intensity	Violent
Center position of probability circle	N25°00′ (25.0°)
	E124°00′ (124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure	925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle	40 km (20 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 9 August>
Intensity	Very strong
Center position of probability circle	N25°35′ (25.6°)
	E123°10′ (123.2°)
Direction and speed of movement	NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure	935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle	60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 9 August>
Intensity	Very strong
Center position of probability circle	N26°10′ (26.2°)
	E122°25′ (122.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure	945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle	70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 9 August>
Intensity	Very strong
Center position of probability circle	N26°50′ (26.8°)
	E121°50′ (121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement	NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure	950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle	90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 260 km (140 NM)

TAIWAN

2019/08/08 12:00UTC Typhoon LEKIMA (201909) , Center Location 24.50N 124.90E, Movement: NW 18KM/HR. Minimum Pressure 915 hpa, Maximum Wind Speed 53m/s, Gust 65m/s, Radius of 15m/s 280km, Radius of 25m/s 100km

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Super Typhoon 10W (Lekima) Warning #18
Issued at 08/0900Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 019 //
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 24.4N 124.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 124.9E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 25.8N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
400 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 26.8N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 27.8N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 29.0N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 32.9N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 35.1N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
—
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 124.5E.
08AUG19. SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND
091500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Aug, 2019 6:00 GMT

Typhoon LEKIMA is currently located near 23.6 N 125.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 130 kts (150 mph). LEKIMA is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. LEKIMA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 48 hours
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 72 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Shanghai (31.2 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
    Hangzhou (30.3 N, 120.2 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
    Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    Taizhou (32.5 N, 119.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nanjing (32.0 N, 118.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
    Wuhu (31.5 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Xinpu (34.8 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
    Xiangshui (34.2 N, 119.6 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Huaiyin (33.5 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Weifang (36.8 N, 119.2 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 120 hours
    Haiyang (36.8 N, 121.2 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
    Qingdao (36.1 N, 120.4 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
    Kenli (37.7 N, 118.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    Weihai (37.4 N, 122.1 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    Linyi (35.2 N, 118.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 (US Scale) or above winds

Probability Scale
Chance of Happening	Value	Chance of Happening	Value
Extremely Low	10%	Medium-High	60%
Very Low	20%	High	70%
Low	30%	Very High	80%
Medium-Low	40%	Extremely High	90%
Medium	50%	Certain	100%

Note that all probabilities refer to the occurrence of 1-min sustained wind speeds.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP23 RJTD 081200
WARNING 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 925 HPA
AT 24.3N 124.9E EAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 25.6N 123.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 26.8N 121.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 28.6N 121.0E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 33.1N 120.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 35.0N 117.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 33.4N 117.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Minami Daito Jima/ Okinawa/ Amami Ōshima/ Japan: Typhoon MANYI 34W 23/1800Z near 17.1N 135.1E, moving N 09kt 955hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 23 Nov 2018 2018Z (GMT/UTC)

November 23, 2018 by Goaty's News UK

TYPHOON MAN-YI 34W

Minami Daito Jima, Okinawa, Amami Ōshima and Japan mainland be aware!

Man-Yi is a storm equivalent to a Category 2 Hurricane on the Saffir Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTAT 231200Z IS 23 FEET – JTWC

TY 1828 (Man-yi)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 23 November 2018


<Analysis at 18 UTC, 23 November>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N17°05′ (17.1°)
	E135°05′ (135.1°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure	955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	N 520 km (280 NM)
	S 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 24 November>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N18°00′ (18.0°)
	E135°10′ (135.2°)
Direction and speed of movement	N Slow
Central pressure	955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle	60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 24 November>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N18°05′ (18.1°)
	E135°00′ (135.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	Almost stationary
Central pressure	955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle	90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 25 November>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N19°00′ (19.0°)
	E131°55′ (131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure	965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle	180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 26 November>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N21°40′ (21.7°)
	E131°00′ (131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure	970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle	240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 330 km (180 NM)

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 34W (Man-yi) Warning #16
Issued at 23/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 16.6N 135.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 135.4E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 17.9N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 18.5N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 18.9N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 19.5N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 21.4N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 24.0N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
—
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 26.7N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
—
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 135.3E.
TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 729 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 231200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z,
240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 33W (USAGI)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

NWS GUAM

257
WTPQ31 PGUM 231531
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Man-yi (34W) Advisory Number 16
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP342018
200 AM ChST Sat Nov 24 2018

…TYPHOON MAN-YI BEGINS TO WEAKEN…

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
————————–
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
Location…16.9N 135.3E

About 545 miles north-northwest of Yap
About 565 miles north-northwest of Ulithi
About 675 miles west-northwest of Guam
About 705 miles west of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds…100 mph
Present movement…northwest…335 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…the center of Typhoon Man-yi was located
near Latitude 16.9 degrees North and Longitude 135.3 degrees East.
Man-yi is moving northwest at 15 mph. It is expected to turn north
tonight then back to the west-northwest Saturday afternoon, with a
decrease in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 100 mph. Man-yi is
forecast to maintain this intensity today, then slowly weaken the
next few days.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 45 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to 165
miles east of the center and up to 155 miles west of the center.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 800 AM this morning.

Ziobro

Guam Alerts

Micronesian Alerts

xxxxxxxxx

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 21 Nov, 2018 12:00 GMT (NOTE DATE)

Tropical Storm MAN-YI is currently located near 8.7 N 146.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). MAN-YI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Guam
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hagatna (13.5 N, 144.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

Other

(Image: @RoshinRowjee )

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP28 RJTD 231500
EMERGENCY WARNING 231500.
WARNING VALID 241500.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 958 HPA
AT 45N 167E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 44N 175E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 43N 174W WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 982 HPA AT 43N 160E
MOVING ESE 25 KNOTS.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1828 MAN-YI (1828) 955 HPA AT 16.6N 134.9E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1829 USAGI (1829) 985 HPA AT 10.5N 110.3E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Japan/ South Korea/ China/ North Korea: Tropical Storm KONG-REY 30W 041500Z position nr 26.1N 126.5E, moving NNW 12kt (JTWC) – Updated 04 Oct 2018 1525Z (GMT/UTC)

October 4, 2018 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Storm KONG-REY 30W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 22 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 30W (Kong-rey) Warning #27
Issued at 04/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 027
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 30W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z — NEAR 25.5N 126.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 340 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 126.6E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 28.0N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 31.0N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 20 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 34.6N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 38.2N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 34 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 43.6N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
—
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 126.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 88 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND
051500Z.//
NNNN

Click here for source

TY 1825 (Kong-rey)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 4 October 2018


<Analysis at 14 UTC, 4 October>
Scale	Large
Intensity	Strong
Center position	N25°55′ (25.9°)
	E126°30′ (126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure	965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	W 650 km (350 NM)
	E 560 km (300 NM)

<Estimate for 15 UTC, 4 October>
Scale	Large
Intensity	Strong
Center position	N26°05′ (26.1°)
	E126°25′ (126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure	965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	W 650 km (350 NM)
	E 560 km (300 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 4 October>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N26°35′ (26.6°)
	E126°05′ (126.1°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure	965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle	50 km (25 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 5 October>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N28°00′ (28.0°)
	E125°35′ (125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure	965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle	70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 5 October>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N29°30′ (29.5°)
	E125°35′ (125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure	965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle	110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 5 October>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N30°55′ (30.9°)
	E126°00′ (126.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure	965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle	150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 330 km (180 NM)

Himawari-8

(30 minute updates)

No.25 KONG-REY

Issued at(KST) : 2018.10.04. 22:00

Date(UTC)	Position		Central Pressure (hPa)	Maximum Sustained Wind(m/s)		Radius of 15 m/s(km)	Intensity	Scale	Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 70% probability(km)
Date(UTC)	Lat (N)	Lon (E)	Central Pressure (hPa)	m/s	km/h	Radius of 15 m/s(km)	Intensity	Scale	Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 70% probability(km)
2018.10.04. 12:00 Analysis	25.4	126.7	970	35	126	420 (WSW 350)	Strong	Medium	NNW	21
2018.10.05. 00:00 Forecast	27.6	125.3	970	35	126	410 (W 335)	Strong	Medium	NNW	25	48
2018.10.05. 12:00 Forecast	30.3	125.0	975	32	115	400 (WNW 320)	Normal	Medium	N	24	110
2018.10.06. 00:00 Forecast	33.3	127.0	980	29	104	365 (WNW 285)	Normal	Medium	NE	34	140
2018.10.06. 12:00 Forecast	36.8	131.9	985	27	97	330 (NW 250)	Normal	Medium	ENE	52	170
2018.10.07. 00:00 Forecast	40.4	138.6	990	24	86	320 (WNW 240)	Weak	Medium	ENE	57	210
2018.10.07. 12:00 Forecast	43.3	149.7	990	24	86				ENE	81

※ It is provided only for the typhoon information in progress. The past information could be found in National Typhoon Center homepage.

☞ National Typhoon Center Homepage

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 4 Oct, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KONG-REY is currently located near 25.5 N 126.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). KONG-REY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Japan
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    China
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 48 hours
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Other

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/seawarn/

WTJP22 RJTD 041200
WARNING 041200.
WARNING VALID 051200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1825 KONG-REY (1825) 965 HPA
AT 25.5N 126.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 28.0N 125.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 30.9N 126.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 38.3N 132.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 43.4N 149.8E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Japan/ South Korea: Typhoon TRAMI 291500Z nr 28.7N 129.1E, moving NE 18kt (JTWC) – Updated 29 Sep 2018 1600Z (GMT/UTC)

September 29, 2018 by Goaty's News UK

Typhoon TRAMI

TRAMI is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Okinawa, Ryukyu Islands and mainland Japan beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 28 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 28W (Trami) Warning #36
Issued at 29/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 036
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z — NEAR 27.9N 128.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 035 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 128.4E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 30.9N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 31 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 35.2N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 42 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 40.9N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
—
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 28.7N 129.1E.
TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

TY 1824 (Trami)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 29 September 2018


<Analysis at 14 UTC, 29 September>
Scale	Large
Intensity	Very strong
Center position	N27°55′ (27.9°)
	E128°20′ (128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure	950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	E 280 km (150 NM)
	W 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	SW 650 km (350 NM)
	NE 560 km (300 NM)

<Estimate for 15 UTC, 29 September>
Scale	Large
Intensity	Very strong
Center position	N28°05′ (28.1°)
	E128°25′ (128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure	950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	E 280 km (150 NM)
	W 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	SW 650 km (350 NM)
	NE 560 km (300 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 29 September>
Intensity	Very strong
Center position of probability circle	N29°10′ (29.2°)
	E129°30′ (129.5°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure	950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle	50 km (25 NM)
Storm warning area	E 310 km (170 NM)
	W 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 30 September>
Intensity	Very strong
Center position of probability circle	N30°40′ (30.7°)
	E131°10′ (131.2°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure	950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle	70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area	E 350 km (190 NM)
	W 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 30 September>
Intensity	Very strong
Center position of probability circle	N32°35′ (32.6°)
	E133°25′ (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 50 km/h (27 kt)
Central pressure	950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle	110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area	E 390 km (210 NM)
	W 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 30 September>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N34°50′ (34.8°)
	E136°05′ (136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 55 km/h (30 kt)
Central pressure	955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle	150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area	SE 430 km (230 NM)
	NW 370 km (200 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

Typhoon Information

No.24 TRAMI

Issued at(KST) : 2018.09.29. 22:00

Date(UTC)	Position		Central Pressure (hPa)	Maximum Sustained Wind(m/s)		Radius of 15 m/s(km)	Intensity	Scale	Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 70% probability(km)
Date(UTC)	Lat (N)	Lon (E)	Central Pressure (hPa)	m/s	km/h	Radius of 15 m/s(km)	Intensity	Scale	Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 70% probability(km)
2018.09.29. 12:00 Analysis	27.8	128.4	950	43	155	390 (WNW 300)	Strong	Medium	NE	28
2018.09.30. 12:00 Forecast	36.0	138.2	965	37	133	360 (NW 270)	Strong	Medium	NE	54	110
2018.10.01. 12:00 Forecast	46.1	153.9	985	27	97				ENE	72

※ It is provided only for the typhoon information in progress. The past information could be found in National Typhoon Center homepage.

☞ National Typhoon Center Homepage

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2018 12:00 GMT

Typhoon TRAMI is currently located near 27.9 N 128.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). TRAMI is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. TRAMI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

Other

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/seawarn/
WTJP31 RJTD 291500
WARNING 291500.
WARNING VALID 301500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 950 HPA
AT 28.4N 128.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 31.5N 131.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 36.5N 137.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Okinawa/ Japan/ China/ South Korea: Tropical Storm YAGI 18W 091200Z 20.9N 133.4E, Almost stationary 994 hPa (JMA) – Published 09 Aug 2018 1345Z (GMT/UTC)

August 9, 2018 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Storm YAGI 18W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET – JTWC

TS 1814 (Yagi)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 9 August 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 9 August>

Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N20°55′ (20.9°)
	E133°25′ (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	Almost stationary
Central pressure	994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area	S 560 km (300 NM)
	N 220 km (120 NM)


Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N23°55′ (23.9°)
	E132°05′ (132.1°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure	994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle	90 km (50 NM)


Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N27°05′ (27.1°)
	E128°20′ (128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement	NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure	994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle	200 km (110 NM)


Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N31°00′ (31.0°)
	E124°25′ (124.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	NW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure	990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle	260 km (140 NM)

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z — NEAR 20.6N 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 133.1E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 21.8N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 23.2N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 24.8N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 26.3N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 29.8N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 34.6N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS
—
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 39.7N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
—
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 133.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 458 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 9 Aug, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm YAGI is currently located near 20.6 N 133.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). YAGI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 091200
WARNING 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1814 YAGI (1814) 994 HPA
AT 20.9N 133.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 23.9N 132.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 27.1N 128.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 31.0N 124.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Japan/ South Korea/ Russia: Severe Tropical Storm PRAPIROON 03/1600Z 35.3N 130.4E, moving NE 14kt 975 hPa (JMA) – Updated 03 Jul 2018 1840Z (GMT/UTC)

July 3, 2018 by Goaty's News UK

Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon

Japan and South Korea beware!

Russia be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 25 FEET – JTWC

STS 1807 (Prapiroon)
Issued at 16:50 UTC, 3 July 2018


<Analysis at 16 UTC, 3 July>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N35°20′ (35.3°)
	E130°25′ (130.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure	975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	E 440 km (240 NM)
	W 220 km (120 NM)

<Estimate for 17 UTC, 3 July>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N35°30′ (35.5°)
	E130°35′ (130.6°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure	975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	E 440 km (240 NM)
	W 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N38°00′ (38.0°)
	E133°25′ (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure	985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle	70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 15 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity	–
	LOW
Center position of probability circle	N40°35′ (40.6°)
	E137°00′ (137.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure	986 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle	150 km (80 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Storm 09W (Prapiroon) Warning #21
Issued at 03/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 021
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 09W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z — NEAR 34.6N 129.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 030 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.6N 129.8E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 37.4N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 40.1N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 41.6N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 22 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 43.2N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
—
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 35.3N 130.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 46 NM
SOUTHEAST OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z,
040900Z AND 041500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Jul, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PRAPIROON is currently located near 34.6 N 129.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). PRAPIROON is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 50% currently
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

Other

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP31 RJTD 031500
WARNING 031500.
WARNING VALID 041500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1807 PRAPIROON (1807) 975 HPA
AT 35.0N 130.2E SEA AROUND TUSHIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 38.0N 133.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 40.6N 137.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Okinawa/ Japan/ South Korea/ Russia/ West Pacific: SUPER TYPHOON LAN 25W 211500Z position nr 24.7N 132.9E, moving NNE 16kt (JTWC) – Updated 21 Oct 2017 1612z (GMT/UTC)

October 21, 2017 by Goaty's News UK

SUPER TYPHOON LAN (25W)

(=CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 41 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Super Typhoon 25W (Lan) Warning #25
Issued at 21/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z — NEAR 23.8N 132.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 025 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
265 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 132.6E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 27.3N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 330 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
415 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 23 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 31.4N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 370 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
315 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
430 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 33 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 36.7N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 400 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
420 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
325 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
395 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 39 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 42.0N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
490 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
390 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
—
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 132.9E.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 307 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

TY 1721 (Lan)
Issued at 15:50 UTC, 21 October 2017


<Analysis at 15 UTC, 21 October>
Scale	Very large
Intensity	Very strong
Center position	N24°30′ (24.5°)
	E132°55′ (132.9°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure	925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	SE 280 km (150 NM)
	NW 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	W 1100 km (600 NM)
	E 950 km (500 NM)

<Estimate for 16 UTC, 21 October>
Scale	Very large
Intensity	Very strong
Center position	N24°40′ (24.7°)
	E133°00′ (133.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure	925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	SE 280 km (150 NM)
	NW 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	W 1100 km (600 NM)
	E 950 km (500 NM)

<Forecast for 21 UTC, 21 October>
Intensity	Very strong
Center position of probability circle	N26°20′ (26.3°)
	E133°25′ (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure	925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle	50 km (25 NM)
Storm warning area	SE 310 km (170 NM)
	NW 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity	Very strong
Center position of probability circle	N28°30′ (28.5°)
	E133°55′ (133.9°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure	925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle	70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 350 km (190 NM)

<Forecast for 09 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity	Very strong
Center position of probability circle	N30°40′ (30.7°)
	E134°55′ (134.9°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 45 km/h (24 kt)
Central pressure	935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle	110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 370 km (200 NM)

<Forecast for 15 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N32°55′ (32.9°)
	E136°35′ (136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure	950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle	150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 390 km (210 NM)

NOAA

TROPICAL STORM (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at21 Oct, 2017 12:00 GMT

Typhoon LAN is currently located near 23.8 N 132.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 130 kts (150 mph). LAN is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. LAN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Other

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 RJTD 211500
WARNING 211500.
WARNING VALID 221500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1721 LAN (1721) 925 HPA
AT 24.5N 132.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 600 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 500 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 28.5N 133.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 32.9N 136.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1200

WWJP25 RJTD 211200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1004 HPA
AT 54N 138E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 54N 138E TO 53N 141E 52N 142E.
WARM FRONT FROM 52N 142E TO 49N 144E 46N 146E.
COLD FRONT FROM 52N 142E TO 49N 142E 44N 138E 41N 130E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 129E 30N 130E 28N 125E 20N 120E 23N 117E 26N
120E 32N 122E 35N 129E.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 11.6N 148.3E MARIANAS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 40N 142E
42N 140E 42N 143E 47N 152E 50N 155E 40N 155E 34N 180E 29N 180E 29N
170E 29N 155E 36N 141E.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1034 HPA AT 47N 159E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 130E TO 32N 134E 34N 140E 36N 146E 35N 152E
34N 157E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1721 LAN (1721) 925 HPA AT 23.8N 132.5E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Japan/ Korea: Typhoon Noru 07W 031600Z nr 28.3°N 132.8°E, moving WNW 10 km/h 6kt(JMA) – Updated 03 Aug 2017 1720z (GMT/UTC)

August 3, 2017 by Goaty's News UK

Typhoon Noru 07W

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

⚠️ Japan BEWARE!! Korea BE AWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 34 FEET – JTWC

(Image: @wunderground)

wp201707_sat_anim noru wund sat 03 .gif

1705-00 NURU JMA 03a

1705-00 NURU JMA 03

WARN 03

Himawari 8 near real time (link)

TY 1705 (Noru)
Issued at 16:40 UTC, 3 August 2017


<Analysis at 16 UTC, 3 August>
Scale	–
Intensity	Strong
Center position	N28°20′ (28.3°)
	E132°50′ (132.8°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure	950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Estimate for 17 UTC, 3 August>
Scale	–
Intensity	Strong
Center position	N28°20′ (28.3°)
	E132°40′ (132.7°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure	950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 4 August>
Intensity	Very strong
Center position of probability circle	N28°30′ (28.5°)
	E131°30′ (131.5°)
Direction and speed of movement	W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure	945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle	60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 190 km (100 NM)

<Forecast for 15 UTC, 4 August>
Intensity	Very strong
Center position of probability circle	N28°40′ (28.7°)
	E130°25′ (130.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	W Slow
Central pressure	945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle	90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 5 August>
Intensity	Very strong
Center position of probability circle	N29°20′ (29.3°)
	E129°25′ (129.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW Slow
Central pressure	940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle	180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 310 km (170 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 6 August>
Intensity	Very strong
Center position of probability circle	N31°20′ (31.3°)
	E130°00′ (130.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	N Slow
Central pressure	940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle	310 km (170 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 440 km (240 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 07W (Noru) Warning #56
Issued at 03/1500Z

wp0717 JTWC 03

IR Sat

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR 056
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z — NEAR 28.3N 133.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.3N 133.2E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 28.7N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 29.1N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 29.6N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 30.4N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 32.4N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 36.3N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS
—
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 40.6N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
—
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 28.4N 132.9E.
TYPHOON 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 307 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 34
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (NALGAE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Aug, 2017 12:00 GMT

Typhoon NORU is currently located near 28.3 N 133.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). NORU is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NORU is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

Typhoon Noru poses a growing threat to southern Japan – Category 6

“Residents of Japan’s southern islands need to keep a close eye on Typhoon Noru. Noru was a strong Category 2 storm as of 12Z Tuesday, with top sustained winds (1-minute) of 90 knots (105 mph) as estimated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). After hurtling to Category 5 intensity on Sunday, the typhoon weakened gradually on Monday as it lost the benefit of a high-altitude outflow channel. However, Noru is expected to re-intensify as it moves slowly northwest toward Japan, where it will encounter slightly warmer waters (above 30°C or 86°F), and into a region with more favorable upper-level winds.

Noru’s northwest track is expected to bend slightly westward as it moves around a compact upper-level high parked near South Korea and the Sea of Japan. This is good news for Japan’s key population centers, including Tokyo, as it would take the typhoon well to their southwest. The large southern island of Kyushu, and the smaller archipelago of the Ryukyu Islands, may not be so lucky. By this weekend, the JTWC track brings Noru toward the west coast of Kyushu as a Category 3 storm. Such a track would put Kyushu on the more dangerous right-hand side of the typhoon. The official three-day outlook from the Japan Meteorological Agency angles Noru more toward the west over the next three days, which would bring the strongest impacts into the more sparsely populated Ryukyu Islands. A crucial question is how quickly the small upper high to the north of Noru breaks down, which is very difficult to predict at this point. The cone of uncertainty for Noru is, in reality, larger than is currently being depicted, given the higher-than-usual uncertainties in the evolution of the steering flow for the typhoon.

For what it’s worth, the operational runs of both the European and GFS models re-intensify Noru into a fearsome super typhoon. The 0Z Tuesday run of the Euro model took Noru on a track similar to the JTWC forecast, looping just to the west of Kyushu, while the 0Z and 6Z Tuesday runs of the GFS moved Noru on a slower, more northward track that would affect Kyushu as well as parts of central Japan. Both models deepened Noru below 900 mb by this weekend, which would imply the possibility of a Category 5 supertyphoon, but these values are very likely unrealistic. This may be a good example of the current tendency of global models to over-deepen strong tropical cyclones at subtropical latitudes (roughly north of 25°N). Until recent years, the global models featured resolution that was too coarse to replicate the lowest pressures at the heart of strong tropical cyclones. Today, the upgraded, higher-resolution models can produce very low surface pressures more readily, but they do not fully account for the ocean-atmosphere interaction across subtropical regions. At these latitudes, late-summer ocean temperatures can be very warm over a very shallow layer that is quickly disrupted by a strong hurricane or typhoon. (Thanks to Julian Heming, UK Met Office, for this background.) We should look at the HWRF model, which is our best intensity model, for guidance on how strong Noru might get. The 06Z Tuesday run of the HWRF model rebuilds Noru to Category 4 strength with 140 mph winds, and predicts a track that would take the storm well west of Kyushu.” – Dr. Jeff Masters & Bob Henson atCategory 6

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

(Image: JMA)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 021200

WTJP31 RJTD 031500
WARNING 031500.
WARNING VALID 041500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1705 NORU (1705) 950 HPA
AT 28.3N 133.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 28.5N 131.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 28.7N 130.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Taiwan/ Japan/ China: Typhoon Nesat 11W 290900Z 23.9°N 122.4°E, moving NNW 20 km/h (11 kt) (JMA)- Updated 29 Jul 2017 1130z (GMT/UTC)

July 29, 2017 by Goaty's News UK

Typhoon Nesat 11W

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

⚠️ Taiwan, Ishigaki Island, Ryukyu Islands (Japan) and China BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 32 FEET- JTWC

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

Himawari 8 near real time (link)

TY 1709 (Nesat)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 29 July 2017


<Analysis at 09 UTC, 29 July>
Scale	–
Intensity	Strong
Center position	N23°55′ (23.9°)
	E122°25′ (122.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure	960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	S 390 km (210 NM)
	N 280 km (150 NM)

<Estimate for 10 UTC, 29 July>
Scale	–
Intensity	Strong
Center position	N24°05′ (24.1°)
	E122°20′ (122.3°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure	960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	S 390 km (210 NM)
	N 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 21 UTC, 29 July>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N24°50′ (24.8°)
	E119°30′ (119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure	980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle	60 km (35 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 140 km (75 NM)

<Forecast for 09 UTC, 30 July>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N25°05′ (25.1°)
	E118°10′ (118.2°)
Direction and speed of movement	W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure	990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle	100 km (55 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N27°35′ (27.6°)
	E118°20′ (118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure	994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle	200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 1 August>
Intensity	–
	TD
Center position of probability circle	N29°30′ (29.5°)
	E117°35′ (117.6°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNW Slow
Central pressure	996 hPa
Radius of probability circle	240 km (130 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 11W (Nesat) Warning #14
Issued at 29/0900Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN34 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (NESAT) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z — NEAR 23.3N 122.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 122.7E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 24.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 25.0N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 25.6N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 27.2N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 31.4N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
—
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 122.2E.
TYPHOON 11W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (TWELVE)WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Jul, 2017 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NESAT is currently located near 23.3 N 122.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). NESAT is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NESAT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

(Image: DoctorAdvice4u.com )

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

(Image: JMA)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 290900

WTJP34 RJTD 290900
WARNING 290900.
WARNING VALID 300900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1709 NESAT (1709) 960 HPA
AT 23.9N 122.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 24.8N 119.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 25.1N 118.2E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Pacific Ocean/ Japan/ Taiwan/ China: Typhoon Dujuan (21W) 25/2100Z near 20.5N 130.7E, moving NNW 7 knots (JTWC) – Updated 25 Sept 2015 2053z (GMT/UTC)

September 25, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Typhoon Dujuan (21W)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Ishigakijima, Okinawa, Japan, Taiwan and China beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 25 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

TY 1521 (DUJUAN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 25 September 2015

<Analyses at 25/12 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	Strong
Center position	N19°55′(19.9°)
	E131°20′(131.3°)
Direction and speed of movement	NW Slowly
Central pressure	970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more	ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more	ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N22°05′(22.1°)
	E129°05′(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement	NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure	960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle	130km(70NM)
Storm warning area	ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N23°20′(23.3°)
	E126°35′(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure	955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle	200km(110NM)
Storm warning area	ALL330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N25°00′(25.0°)
	E122°50′(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure	955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle	300km(160NM)
Storm warning area	ALL430km(230NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 21W (Dujuan) Warning #17
Issued at 25/2100Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z — NEAR 20.2N 131.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 131.0E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 21.3N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 22.0N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 22.5N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 23.1N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z — 24.6N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 26.1N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
—
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 27.6N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
—
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 130.7E.
TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 417 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND
262100Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

Other Reports

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 25 Sep, 2015 18:00 GMT

Typhoon DUJUAN (21W) currently located near 20.2 N 131.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 251800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 142E 42N 140E
44N 145E 51N 157E 60N 163E 60N 180E 38N 180E 40N 160E 40N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 39N 137E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 34N 146E EAST 20 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 52N 167E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 994 HPA AT 44N 170E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 14N 147E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 48N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 26N 162E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 132E TO 32N 135E 33N 141E 34N 146E 34N 150E
31N 153E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1521 DUJUAN (1521) 970 HPA AT 20.1N 131.0E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0900

WTJP21 RJTD 251800
WARNING 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1521 DUJUAN (1521) 970 HPA
AT 20.1N 131.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 22.1N 128.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 23.2N 125.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 24.6N 121.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Kyushu/ Japan/ South Korea: Typhoon Goni (16W) 24/1500Z 30.5N 129.5E, moving NNE at 20 knots (JMA) – Updated 24 Aug 2015 1725Z (GMT/UTC)

August 24, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Typhoon Goni / Ineng 16W

( = CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 40 FEET- JTWC

Okinawa, Kyushu, JAPAN BEWARE!!

Taiwan, South Korea, North Korea, Russia & China be aware!

Landfall over Kyushu is expected close to midnight tonight UK time (2300 GMT/UTC)

– UK Met Office

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.
Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

CLICK IMAGE FOR LATEST WARNINGS

TY 1515 (GONI)
Issued at 16:45 UTC, 24 August 2015

<Analyses at 24/16 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	Very Strong
Center position	N30°50′(30.8°)
	E129°35′(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure	940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more	SE170km(90NM)
	NW90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more	ALL460km(250NM)
<Estimate for 24/17 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	Very Strong
Center position	N31°05′(31.1°)
	E129°50′(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure	940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more	SE170km(90NM)
	NW90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more	ALL460km(250NM)
<Forecast for 24/21 UTC>
Intensity	Very Strong
Center position of probability circle	N32°25′(32.4°)
	E130°20′(130.3°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure	950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle	60km(30NM)
Storm warning area	SE200km(110NM)
	NW140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 25/03 UTC>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N34°35′(34.6°)
	E131°00′(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure	965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle	90km(50NM)
Storm warning area	SE220km(120NM)
	NW170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 25/09 UTC>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N35°50′(35.8°)
	E131°25′(131.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure	970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle	130km(70NM)
Storm warning area	SE240km(130NM)
	NW190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 25/15 UTC>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N36°55′(36.9°)
	E131°35′(131.6°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure	975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle	160km(85NM)
Storm warning area	SE240km(130NM)
	NW200km(110NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 16W (Goni) Warning #43
Issued at 24/1500Z

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 043
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z — NEAR 29.6N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 035 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.6N 128.8E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 33.1N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 16 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 36.2N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 38.9N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 16 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 42.0N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
—
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 30.5N 129.2E.
TYPHOON 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 40
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Prognostic Reasoning

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Aug, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon GONI (16W) currently located near 29.6 N 128.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

Typhoon Goni set for landfall over Japan – UK Met Office

24 August 2015 – The very active typhoon season in the Pacific Ocean has continued with intense typhoons Goni and Atsani tracking across the ocean during the last week

Whilst Atsani has stayed out at sea, Goni moved very close to the northern tip of the Philippines before making a sharp turn northwards. The typhoon then passed close to Taiwan before starting to move across the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. On Sunday the eye of Typhoon Goni passed over the island of Ishigaki with wind gusts of over 150 mph being recorded.

Goni is still a powerful typhoon as it accelerates north-eastwards towards south-western parts of mainland Japan. Landfall over Kyushu is expected close to midnight tonight UK time (2300 GMT/UTC) . Wind speeds in excess of 100 mph and heavy rain is expected bringing the risk of structural damage, damaging waves, flooding and landslides.

Typhoons Goni and Atsani on 20 August 2015. Image courtesy of The National Institute of Informatics

The latest typhoons are part of an extremely active season for tropical cyclones across the whole Pacific Ocean brought about by the developing strong El Niño. In total there have been 28 tropical storms across the northern Pacific this year which includes 18 typhoons or hurricanes (different names for the same features in the west and east Pacific). 13 of the typhoons or hurricanes have been strong enough to be classified as ‘major’ on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Meanwhile the Atlantic has been relatively quiet with just four tropical cyclones so far this season. However, in the last few days Danny became the first hurricane of the season and, despite being downgraded to a tropical storm, is bringing windy and wet conditions to the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean.

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific are produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via on Twitter.

Last updated: 24 August 2015

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 241500

WTJP31 RJTD 241500
WARNING 241500.
WARNING VALID 251500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1515 GONI (1515) 940 HPA
AT 30.5N 129.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 34.6N 131.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 36.9N 131.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY..=

There may be more warnings here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Korea/ China: Severe Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (09W) 12/1500Z POSITION nr 37.5N 125.1E, moving N/NNE 20 knots (JTWC) – Updated 120715 1500z (GMT/UTC)

July 12, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Severe Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (09W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.
Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

STS 1509 (CHAN-HOM)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 12 July 2015

<Analyses at 12/12 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N36°35′(36.6°)
	E125°00′(125.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure	980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more	E600km(325NM)
	W390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 13/00 UTC>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N39°40′(39.7°)
	E127°00′(127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure	985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle	90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 13/12 UTC>
Intensity	–
	LOW
Center position of probability circle	N42°10′(42.2°)
	E130°30′(130.5°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure	992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle	160km(85NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 09W (Chan-hom) Warning #49
Issued at 12/1500Z

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 11/2100Z

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 049
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z — NEAR 36.8N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 015 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.8N 124.7E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 39.6N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 40.9N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
—
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 37.5N 125.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Jul, 2015 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM (09W) currently located near 36.8 N 124.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    P’yongyang (39.0 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sariwon (38.5 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kanggye (41.0 N, 126.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Hamhung (39.9 N, 127.6 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Sinuiju (40.1 N, 124.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

CLICK IMAGE FOR MORE DETAIL

WTJP21 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509) 980 HPA
AT 36.6N 125.0E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 39.7N 127.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 42.2N 130.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 120600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED EASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED
BY 15N 176E 15N 180E 13N 180E 13N 176E 15N 176E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED WESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED
BY 13N 176E 13N 180E 11N 180E 11N 176E 13N 176E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 32N 136E 33N 136E
35N 137E 36N 143E 43N 146E 56N 163E 60N 164E 60N 180E 40N 180E 36N
160E 32N 142E 32N 136E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 49N 132E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 47N 153E SE 15 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 57N 146E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1511 NANGKA (1511) 950 HPA AT 18.6N 137.6E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509) 975 HPA AT 34.9N 124.2E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Philippines: Typhoon NOUL (06W)/ DODONG further weakened and accelerated as it moves Northeastward (PAGASA) – 110515 1245z (GMT/UTC)

May 11, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Typhoon NOUL SIX (06W)/ DODONG in PH

Typhoon “#DodongPH” has further weakened and accelerated as it moves Northeastward (PAGASA)

(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 38 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Analysis Chart (PDF)

TY 1506 (NOUL)
Issued at 10:45 UTC, 11 May 2015


Scale	–
Intensity	Strong
Center position	N22°20′(22.3°)
	E122°50′(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure	955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more	ALL80km(45NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more	ALL190km(100NM)

Scale	–
Intensity	Strong
Center position	N22°25′(22.4°)
	E122°55′(122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure	955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more	ALL80km(45NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more	ALL190km(100NM)

Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N23°35′(23.6°)
	E124°00′(124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure	955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle	60km(30NM)
Storm warning area	ALL140km(75NM)

Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N26°05′(26.1°)
	E126°50′(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 55km/h(29kt)
Central pressure	960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle	90km(50NM)
Storm warning area	ALL180km(95NM)

Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N28°20′(28.3°)
	E129°50′(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement	ENE 65km/h(34kt)
Central pressure	970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle	200km(110NM)
Storm warning area	ALL280km(150NM)

Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N30°30′(30.5°)
	E133°35′(133.6°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 70km/h(38kt)
Central pressure	980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle	240km(130NM)
Storm warning area	ALL300km(160NM)

PHILIPPINES

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Typhoon “#DodongPH” has further weakened and accelerated as it moves Northeastward. http://t.co/BugKFIK8Yf

— PAGASA-DOST (@dost_pagasa) May 11, 2015

5:00 p.m. Weather Bulletin in pdf

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 06W (Noul) Warning #34
Issued at 11/0900Z

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 034
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z — NEAR 21.8N 122.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 025 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 122.6E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 25.2N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 36 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 29.6N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 41 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 34.6N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 43 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 40.2N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
—
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 123.5E.
TYPHOON 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z,
120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 May, 2015 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NOUL (06W) currently located near 21.8 N 122.6 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

Typhoon Noul Nears Southern Japan Monday Near Landfall Outlook (WestPacWx)

Typhoon Noul continues to track North away from the Philippines and towards Japan this Monday evening setting the stage for a early season typhoon in the southern Japanese islands including the island of Okinawa. Winds will max out there during the morning hours as the storm races by being pulled quickly north east by a passing cold front. At this time JMA is warning of winds gusting up to 180kph in Okinawa, …

Other Reports

Typhoon Dodong (Noul) slammed into the northern tip of the Philippines May 10, prompting almost 3,000 people in Northern Luzon to flee their homes and knocking out power in Cagayan. It has since weakened, and the state weather bureau said the typhoon will be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Tuesday, May 12. It’s expected to move north towards Japan, the government weather station said.

Read the full story on Rappler.

Read the full story on evacuation on Rappler.

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 110900

WTJP31 RJTD 110900
WARNING 110900.
WARNING VALID 120900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1506 NOUL (1506) 955 HPA
AT 22.0N 122.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 26.1N 126.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 30.5N 133.6E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 110600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 110600.
WARNING VALID 120600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 40N 167E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 40N 167E TO 39N 170E 38N 172E.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 172E TO 36N 174E 33N 176E.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 172E TO 31N 165E 25N 153E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
500 MILES ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER LOW 994 HPA AT 38N 160E
MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 36N 123E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 36N 123E TO 34N 125E 31N 128E.
COLD FRONT FROM 36N 123E TO 30N 120E 26N 115E 25N 111E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 43N 146E 47N 152E
55N 162E 53N 180E 30N 180E 30N 170E 37N 160E 40N 150E 43N 146E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 47N 146E ESE 20 KT.
LOW 998 HPA AT 57N 151E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 35N 142E ESE 20 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1506 NOUL (1506) 950 HPA AT 21.6N 122.3E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1507 DOLPHIN (1507) 998 HPA AT 09.8N 160.0E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

GALE WARNING # 08 (FINAL)

FOR: Strong to gale force winds associated with Typhoon “DODONG”.
Issued at: 5:00 pm today, 11 May 2015
Strong to gale force winds has weakened.

SEABOARDS

WEATHER

WIND FORCE
(KPH / KNOTS)

SEA CONDITION

WAVE HEIGHT (meters)

THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF NORTHERN LUZON
(Isabela and Eastern Coast of Cagayan)

Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms

(35– 59) /(19 – 32)

Moderate to rough

2.1 to 4.0

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are alerted against moderate to rough seas.

This is the final gale warning.

PAGASA

Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Japan: Typhoon Vongfong 19W 121000Z 29.4N 127.4E, moving N at 12 knots (JMA)

October 12, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

Typhoon Vongfong

(Tropical Storm Vongfong 19W)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

1419

TY 1419 (VONGFONG)
Issued at 10:50 UTC, 12 October 2014

<Analyses at 12/10 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N29°25′(29.4°)
E127°25′(127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL700km(375NM)
<Estimate for 12/11 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N29°35′(29.6°)
E127°25′(127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL700km(375NM)
<Forecast for 12/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°05′(30.1°)
E127°55′(127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area NE330km(180NM)
SW280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 12/21 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°00′(31.0°)
E129°00′(129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area NE370km(200NM)
SW310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 13/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N32°00′(32.0°)
E130°55′(130.9°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 45km/h(24kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area SE370km(200NM)
NW330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 13/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N33°30′(33.5°)
E133°25′(133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45km/h(24kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area SE390km(210NM)
NW330km(180NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z — NEAR 28.9N 127.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 350 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9N 127.1E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 30.7N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 33.0N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 28 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 36.2N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 32 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 40.0N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
—
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 127.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z,
130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Oct, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm VONGFONG (19W) currently located near 28.9 N 127.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0900

WTJP31 RJTD 120900
WARNING 120900.
WARNING VALID 130900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1419 VONGFONG (1419) 965 HPA
AT 29.3N 127.3E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 31.0N 129.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 33.5N 133.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 120600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 990 HPA
AT 32N 169E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 32N 169E TO 32N 173E 30N 177E.
COLD FRONT FROM 32N 169E TO 26N 162E 22N 152E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N 152E TO 23N 145E 26N 140E 30N 135E 31N
129E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 38N 169E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 39N 169E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 1002 HPA
AT 39N 160E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST SLOWLY.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 400
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 998 HPA
AT 56N 139E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 56N 139E TO 54N 145E 50N 147E.
COLD FRONT FROM 56N 139E TO 53N 141E 47N 139E 44N 134E 42N 129E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 33N 133E 34N 137E 30N 140E 27N 140E 27N 137E 28N 134E 33N
133E.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 39N 145E SE 15 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 48N 179E ESE 15 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1419 VONGFONG (1419) 965 HPA AT 28.8N 127.1E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Japan/ Russia: Severe Tropical Storm HALONG 11W 101800Z nr 41.2N 137.3E, moving N at 45km/h(25kt)(JMA) 2 Dead, 1.6 million displaced (WestPacWx) – Updated 100814 2130z (UTC)

August 10, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

Severe Tropical Storm 1411 /11W HALONG

Japan: 2 Dead, 1.6 million displaced (WestPacWx)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(RSMC Tokyo is the lead agency in this area)

Click map for source

Japan Radar

Japan Radar and Nowcasts (Precipitation, Thunder, Tornadoes) CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE AND ANIMATION – JMA

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

: Click on image for source

STS 1411 (HALONG)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 10 August 2014


<Analyses at 10/18 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N41°10′(41.2°)
	E137°20′(137.3°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 45km/h(25kt)
Central pressure	975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more	ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more	SE560km(300NM)
	NW390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 11/06 UTC>
Intensity	–
	LOW
Center position of probability circle	N44°00′(44.0°)
	E137°05′(137.1°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure	966hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle	90km(50NM)
Storm warning area	ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity	–
	LOW
Center position of probability circle	N46°50′(46.8°)
	E136°40′(136.7°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure	980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle	140km(75NM)

Unit:

1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Aug, 2014 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm HALONG (11W) currently located near 34.1 N 134.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Click image for source (tropicalstormrisk.com)

STS Halong Leaves 2 Dead and over a million displaced (Sunday Afternoon Update)

Posted on August 10, 2014 by Robert Speta/ westernpacificweather.com

Severe Tropical Storm Halong tore across Western Japan Sunday Afternoon bringing torrential rain and gale force winds. Now the storm is moving out over the sea of Japan but outer rain bands will continue to impact Japan through Monday.

Two deaths have now been a direct result of the storm, over 1.6 million people have been displaced and millions of dollars in damages have occurred due to flooding.

NHK is reporting a women died due to flood waters in the Takamatsu River Sunday. Saturday morning a 78 year old man was swept away in rising flood waters in Iwate Prefecture.

Furthermore this weekend is the Obon weekend in Japan where millions of people are traveling to visit the graves of ancestors. With over 400 flights cancelled and Shinkansen lines shut down many of those people are stuck at airports and stations waiting for service to resume.

To cap things off a 6.1M earthquake sent a scare through residents of northern Japan around 1PM JST. The image to the right shows typhoon warnings being aired on NHK with the earthquake warning over laid.

The disaster unfolding across Japan should come as no surprised though, this storm has been slowly working its way north towards Japan for nearly a week now. Following Tropical Storm Nakri which brough torrential rainfall and then a stationary front that lingered over Japan this week the grounds of Shikoku, Kyushu and Western Honshu were already saturated and unable to bring in any more rainfall.

Now in the past 48hrs along Typhoon Nakri has dumped well over 1,000mm in parts of Kochi Prefecture on Shikoku. While other parts of western Japan have seen above 800mm in total. You can find this information at this link.

For only the second time in 2014 JMA has issued an emergency warning. It was issued in Mie Prefecture for ground loosening rains. This is the highest level on JMAs warning scale and indicates a very serious threat to the loss of life.

In Shimamoto near where Videographer and Westpacwx Team Member James Reynolds is there has been reports of damage to homes after rivers in the Shimamoto river swelled when Halong came ashore. You can follow his twitter account as he documents the storm there below.

..Tweets by @EarthUncutTV

Western Pacific Weather first reported on this threat a week ago after the storm passed Guam and started tracked towards Japan.

–

Halong will continue to track over the Sea of Japan Sunday Night through Monday pulling in moisture from the south and eventually getting sheared to the east. What this means in short is heavy rainfall can be expected across Central and Northern Japan to start off the work week.

Over 100mm even in to the Tokyo area is possible as well. Around noon on Sunday Tornado Advisories were issued in the Tokyo Metro area due to strong cells rolling through the city.

For the most part the weather in Tokyo should not be to severe but it will be enough to cause delays on the roads and even localized flooding.

COULD RUSSIA GET HIT BY A TYPHOON OR A TS?

The bigger question is could the Russian Far East get impacted by Tropical Storm Strength winds, that seems like a more likely yes, but will Halong maintain its tropical characteristics farther to the north is unlikely. We will continue to track the progression of the storm but even Vladivostok could be looking at rough conditions by Monday and Tuesday of this coming week.

Japanese Red Cross Society (English)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP22 RJTD 101800
WARNING 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1411 HALONG (1411) 975 HPA
AT 41.2N 137.3E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 25 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 44.0N 137.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
966 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 46.8N 136.7E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 101800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 978 HPA
AT 54N 168E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 54N 168E TO 56N 173E 55N 179E.
WARM FRONT FROM 55N 179E TO 54N 180E 52N 177W 48N 174W.
COLD FRONT FROM 55N 179E TO 50N 175E 46N 170E 43N 165E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 43N 165E TO 41N 159E 40N 153E 40N 146E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 400
MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 47N 152E
55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 41N 180E 40N 170E 38N 153E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 11N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 33N 116E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 61N 142E SSE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 46N 153E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 36N 160E ALMOST STATIONARY.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 138E TO 43N 141E 41N 143E 40N 146E.
COLD FRONT FROM 39N 135E TO 36N 131E 34N 125E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1413 GENEVIEVE (1413) 965 HPA AT 31.5N 172.1E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1411 HALONG (1411) 975 HPA AT 41.2N 137.3E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/npacific/mappage.htm

South Korea/ Yellow Sea: Severe Tropical Storm NAKRI 1412 12W 021500Z near 33.7N 124.8E, moving N at 10km/h(6kt)(JMA) – Updated 020814 1837z (UTC)

August 2, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Storm NAKRI

1412 (JMA) #12W (JTWC)

9/02/2014 – 9/03/2014

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS NOW OUT OF DATE

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(JMA is the lead agency in this area)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

TS 1412 (NAKRI)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 2 August 2014


<Analyses at 02/15 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N33°40′(33.7°)
	E124°50′(124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure	980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more	E560km(300NM)
	W370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 03/03 UTC>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N34°50′(34.8°)
	E124°35′(124.6°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure	985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle	90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 03/15 UTC>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N35°25′(35.4°)
	E125°10′(125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE Slowly
Central pressure	990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle	160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N36°30′(36.5°)
	E126°50′(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE Slowly
Central pressure	994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle	300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity	–
	TD
Center position of probability circle	N38°00′(38.0°)
	E129°00′(129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure	1000hPa
Radius of probability circle	410km(220NM)

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

South Korea

No.12 NAKRI

Issued at(KST) : 2014.08.03. 01:00

Date(UTC)	Position		Central Pressure (hPa)	Maximum Sustained Wind(m/s)		Radius of 15 m/s(km)	Intensity	Scale	Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 70% probability(km)
Date(UTC)	Lat (N)	Lon (E)	Central Pressure (hPa)	m/s	km/h	Radius of 15 m/s(km)	Intensity	Scale	Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 70% probability(km)
2014.08.02. 15:00 Analysis	33.5	124.7	985	25	90	300 (NNE 260)	Normal	Medium	N	11
2014.08.03. 03:00 Forecast	34.6	124.8	990	24	86	250 (NNE 220)	Weak	Small	N	10	100
2014.08.03. 15:00 Forecast	35.5	125.1	994	21	76	210 (NNE 180)	Weak	Small	NNE	9	150
2014.08.04. 03:00 Forecast	36.1	125.6	996	19	68	150 (NE 120)	Weak	Small	NE	7	210
2014.08.04. 15:00 Forecast	36.6	126.2	1000						NE	6

�� It is provided only for the typhoon information in progress. The past information could be found in National Typhoon Center homepage.

�� National Typhoon Center Homepage

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z — NEAR 33.3N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.3N 124.7E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z — 34.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 35.3N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 36.1N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 36.9N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 39.0N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
—
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 33.6N 124.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND
031500Z. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Aug, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NAKRI (12W) currently located near 32.7 N 124.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    China
        probability for TS is 75% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 72 hours
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Sariwon (38.5 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    P’yongyang (39.0 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Other Reports

Severe Tropical Storm Nakri Recap and Forecast through Korea (Saturday Update) – WestPacWx

Posted on August 2, 2014 by Robert Speta/westernpacificweather.com

Max Wind Speed Reports

Tropical Storm Nakri pounded Okinawa and the southern Japanese islands on Friday with winds gusting well over 100kph at times. On the Kadena AFB Tropical Storm Strength conditions were seen at winds gusting up to 65kts or 126kph at one point.

This resulted in numerous cases of light debris flying around as many people were caught off gaurd by the sudden burst of rising winds with this large monsoonal gyre of a storm system.

One quote off our facebook page read.

“I have seen two broken branches, several moving boxes flying, two trash tumbling by, and the wind has the water pounding the glass on my

house and we have a significant overhang”

Heavy rainfall also took place resulting in flooding. On the Amami islands there was several reports of landslides and even farther to the north in southern Kyushu we have seen reports of flooding and slides and power outages because of Nakri.

JMA even warns today of flooding and landslides in Shikoku far removed from the center of the storm but still related to it. Moist southerly air will continue to wrap around the eastern periphery of Nakri pushing moisture in to the hill sides of western Japan. Some areas could see as much as 200-300mm of rainfall.

Kyoto and Osaka on Sunday will also see scattered showers from the storm. Unfortunate for those who are just starting summer vacation here.

Nakri is forecast remain is very disorganized but potent look as it moves through the yellow sea. Increasing vertical wind shear will rip the storm apart through the weekend though shoving a lot of the moisture associated with it eastward in to northern Japan through next week.

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 021200
WARNING 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1412 NAKRI (1412) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 980 HPA
AT 33.3N 124.5E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 34.6N 124.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 35.4N 125.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 36.5N 126.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 38.0N 129.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1200

WWJP25 RJTD 021200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 51N 157E
60N 163E 60N 180E 40N 180E 40N 160E 36N 150E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 56N 142E ESE SLOWLY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 42N 153E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 53N 166E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 29N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 40N 174E EAST SLOWLY.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1411 HALONG (1411) 935 HPA AT 14.9N 135.1E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1412 NAKRI (1412) 980 HPA AT 33.3N 124.5E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA /1200

WWCI50 BABJ 021200
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1530UTC AUG.02 2014=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC AUG. 02=
FORECAST VALID 1200UTC AUG. 03=
WARNNING=
SUPER TY HALONG 1411(1411) 940HPA AT 15.1N 135.1E
MOVING WNW 12KM/H AND MAX WINDS 58M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 19.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
300KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
480KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
AND PADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
160KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
210KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
AND PADIUS OF 64KTS WINDS
70KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
AND FORECAST FOR 031200UTC AT 16.2N 132.5E 910HPA
AND MAX WINDS 65M/S NEAR CENTER=
TS NAKRI 1412(1412) 985HPA AT 32.8N 124.6E
MOVING NNW 12KM/H AND MAX WINDS 23M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 7.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
400KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
400KM SOUTHWEST
350KM NORTHWEST
AND FORECAST FOR 031200UTC AT 35.3N 125.1E 995HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
WINDS FROM 12 TO 18M/S GUST 23M/S SEAS UP TO 5.5M
OVER SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 16 TO 23M/S GUST 28M/S SEAS
UP TO 6.0M OVER NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
AND BASHI CHANNEL AND SOUTH PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 14 TO 20M/S GUST 23M/S SEAS UP TO
6.0M OVER KOREA STRAIT=
SLY WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
4.0M OVER SEA NEAR RYUKYU ISLANDS AND SEA SOUTHWEST
OF JAPAN=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 38 TO 50M/S SEAS UP TO 15.0M
OVER SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 20 TO 28M/S SEAS UP TO 9.0M
OVER SEA WEST OF GUAM=
WINDS FROM 42 TO 52M/S SEAS UP TO 17.0M OVER SEAS
NEAR CENTER OF HALONG=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER SOUTH PART
OF YELLOW SEA AND NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND
SEA NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN AND KOREA STRAIT AND SEA
SOUTHWEST OF JAPAN AND SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA
ISLANDS AND ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
AND SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT BANDA AND LAUT MALUKU=
FORECAST=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 16 TO 24M/S GUST 25 TO 32M/S
SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER MIDDLE AND SOUTH PARTS OF
YELLOW SEA AND NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
NE WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS
UP TO 4.0M OVER NORTH PART OF YELLOW SEA=
NE WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S GUST 17M/S SEAS UP TO
2.5M OVER BOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT=
SW WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER
SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT
AND MIDDLE PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER SEA
EAST OF TAIWAN AND BASHI CHANNEL AND SOUTH PART OF
SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 17M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SOUTHWEST PART FO JAPAN SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 16 TO 24M/S SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER
KOREA STRAIT=
SLY/SE WINDS FROM 08 TO 17M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=
NW WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S WILL INCREASE FROM 18 TO
24M/S SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER SEA NORTHEAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 33 TO 41M/S SEAS UP TO 14.0M
OVER SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS=
SW WINDS FROM 18 TO 24M/S SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER SEA
WEST OF GUAM=
WINDS FROM 50 TO 60M/S SEAS UP TO 18.0M OVER
SEAS NEAR CENTER OF HALONG=

Kyushu/ Okinawa/ Japan: Typhoon NEOGURI 08W/ FLORITA (=CAT3-SS) 081700Z nr 28.8N 125.7E, moving N at 13 knots (JMA) Leaving Southern Japanese islands, heading toward Kyushu (WestPacWx) – Updated 080714 1830z (UTC)

July 8, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

TYPHOON NEOGURI 1408 (JMA)

(Equivalent to a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) (JTWC)

Typhoon Neoguri is leaving behind the southern Japanese islands Tuesday night and now sets its eyes ahead towards the southern coast of Kyushu.(WestPacWx)

25 People injured in Okinara, 2 died at sea in Western Japan (NHK)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

JMA IS THE LEAD AGENCY IN THIS AREA

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Analysis Chart (CLICK IMAGE FOR ANIMATION/SOURCE)

Japan Radar (JMA) Radar and Nowcasts (Precipitation, Thunder, Tornadoes): Japan (CLICK IMAGE FOR ANIMATION/SOURCE)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

: CLICK ON IMAGE TO GO TO JMA WARNINGS PAGE

TY 1408 (NEOGURI)
Issued at 17:50 UTC, 8 July 2014


<Analyses at 08/17 UTC>
Scale	Large
Intensity	Strong
Center position	N28°50′(28.8°)
	E125°40′(125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure	950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more	SE310km(170NM)
	NW170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more	SE700km(375NM)
	NW440km(240NM)

<Estimate for 08/18 UTC>
Scale	Large
Intensity	Strong
Center position	N29°00′(29.0°)
	E125°40′(125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure	950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more	SE310km(170NM)
	NW170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more	SE700km(375NM)
	NW440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 09/03 UTC>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N30°30′(30.5°)
	E126°10′(126.2°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure	955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle	90km(50NM)
Storm warning area	SE350km(190NM)
	NW260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 09/15 UTC>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N31°20′(31.3°)
	E127°30′(127.5°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure	960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle	160km(85NM)
Storm warning area	SE370km(200NM)
	NW310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N31°40′(31.7°)
	E132°25′(132.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	ENE 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure	975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle	300km(160NM)
Storm warning area	SE480km(260NM)
	NW430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 11/12 UTC>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N34°00′(34.0°)
	E138°10′(138.2°)
Direction and speed of movement	ENE 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure	985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle	460km(250NM)

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

SOUTH KOREA

No.8 NEOGURI

Issued at(KST) : 2014.07.09. 01:00

Date(UTC)	Position		Central Pressure (hPa)	Maximum Sustained Wind(m/s)		Radius of 15 m/s(km)	Intensity	Scale	Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 70% probability(km)
Date(UTC)	Lat (N)	Lon (E)	Central Pressure (hPa)	m/s	km/h	Radius of 15 m/s(km)	Intensity	Scale	Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 70% probability(km)
2014.07.08. 15:00 Analysis	28.3	125.6	945	45	162	400 (W 350)	Very Strong	Medium	N	22
2014.07.09. 03:00 Forecast	30.5	126.0	955	41	148	360 (WNW 310)	Strong	Medium	N	21	100
2014.07.09. 15:00 Forecast	31.9	128.0	965	38	137	320 (NW 270)	Strong	Medium	NE	20	150
2014.07.10. 03:00 Forecast	32.3	130.6	970	36	130	300 (NW 270)	Strong	Medium	E	20	210
2014.07.10. 15:00 Forecast	33.2	133.5	980	31	112	280 (NW 230)	Normal	Small	ENE	25	250
2014.07.11. 03:00 Forecast	35.4	137.6	985	27	97	250 (NW 200)	Normal	Small	ENE	38	325
2014.07.11. 15:00 Forecast	38.5	142.3	990	24	86	230 (NW 180)	Weak	Small	ENE	45	400
2014.07.12. 15:00 Forecast	45.7	151.1	996						NE	45

�� It is provided only for the typhoon information in progress. The past information could be found in National Typhoon Center homepage.

�� National Typhoon Center Homepage

2014

Korean Meteorological Agency will be issuing Typhoon Warning for Jeju Island later… Rain bands seen in Radar… http://t.co/0I6HkVytWY

— Westpacwx (@westpacwx) July 8, 2014

PHILIPPINES

PAGASA-DOST

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Severe Weather Bulletin #6 (FINAL) issued at 10AM July 08, 2014

TY FLORITA is now outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility ( PAR).

At 9AM today, the eye was located @ 610 km NE of Basco, Batanes (25.4N,126.0E), with maximum winds/gustiness:185/220 kph. It is forecast to move North @ 20 kph. It will continue to enhanced the SW monsoon bringing moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over Palawan, Mindoro, Cavite, Batangas, Zambales and Bataan while the rest of Luzon and western Visayas will have occasional rains. Sea travel is risky over the northern, eastern, & southern seaboards of Luzon and the western seaboards of southern Luzon and of Visayas. It is expected to be at 200km Northwest of Okinawa, Japan this evening. PAGASA-DOST

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 081500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 27.8N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 125.7E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 29.9N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 31.2N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 31.9N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 19 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 33.0N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 22 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 37.7N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 29 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 47.3N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
—
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 28.3N 125.8E.
TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 37 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jul, 2014 12:00 GMT

Typhoon NEOGURI (08W) currently located near 27.8 N 125.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Japan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
  South Korea
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

WestPacWX

Western Japan Braces for Neoguri, Forecast and Impacts

Posted on July 8, 2014 by Robert Speta (westernpacificweather.com)

Typhoon Neoguri is leaving behind the southern Japanese islands Tuesday night and now sets its eyes ahead towards the southern coast of Kyushu.

Several thousand residents from the islands southern coastlines have been told to evacuate ahead of Typhoon Neoguri due to the threat of storm surge near the coast and flash flooding farther inland. Heavy rains due to the rainy season front have already saturated the ground here. In parts of southern Kyushu up to 200mm of rainfall is expected through Wednesday evening.

Winds in the Amani islands off the southern coast of Kyushu could see gust as high as 126kph through Wednesday Evening. 11 meter high waves are expected on the Amani islands.

TCCOR 1 Will likely be issued for the military in Sasebo. If not typhoon warnings via JMA are still in place.

Damaging winds as high as 130kph gusting to 185kph at landfall in Kagoshima is in the forecast by Thursday morning as Typhoon Neoguri makes landfall along the southern Coast of Kyushu as the equivalant of a Category 1 storm.

These winds will be over a small area though and the bulk of the area will see 90kph sustained winds.

In Kagoshima and Miyazaki up to 400-500mm of rainfall is likely as moisture wraps around Neoguri is pushed on shore in to the mountains of the Western Japan. Flash flooding, landslides and rapid river level rise will be a high threat here.

Even though the storm in Okinawa is very dangerous the overall impact on infrastructure and the risk of flooding and landslides will likely result in more damage across Kyushu despite it being a slightly weaker storm.

Farther north the rain will be the biggest issue though. Across much of Honshu flooding will be a problem through Friday including in the Tokyo area river level rise will be one of the main threats from this storm.

The rainfall in the Kanto Plain will likely start by Thursday evening and last through Friday as the Center of Neoguri pushes over mainland Japan.

At this time no cancellations of flights in Tokyo have been made but anyone who plans on traveling should be prepared for the risk of delays cancellations.

Expect Neoguri to weaken rapidly over Japan. It will still carry with it a deluge of moisture but the center of circulation will be torn apart over the mountains of Japan.

Tragedy in Kochi

High waves ahead of Neoguri caused a capsize off of Kochi Prefecture in Shikoku resulting in one death on Tuesday. Waves at the time of the capzise were 4 meters high according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Typhoon Neoguri Live Coverage

by Robert Speta(westernpacificweather.com)

The video update is now over, you can watch the playback above, continued updates and new information will be posted below. For latest track and extended info. go to the tropical information center. or find us on facebook. Typhoon Neoguri now moving over the southern Japanese islands, max winds reported is up to 191kph. At this

Typhoon Neoguri Damage and Impact Information

by Robert Speta (westernpacificweather.com)

Typhoon Neoguri now moving over and away from the southern Japanese islands, max winds reported is up to 191kph. At this time 590,000 have been advised to evacuate. On the main island of Okinawa most of these are in the Ginowan area near coastal locations. Once again with the evacuation advisories, it states. “Authorities are telling them to

Violent Typhoon Neoguri will blow past Okinawa on Tuesday (Monday Night Update)

by Robert Speta (westernpacificweather.com)

Residents in Southern Japan should now be hunkered down and prepared to ride out Typhoon Neoguri as it races north towards Okinawa, Kume-Jima, Miyako-Jima and Ishigaki on Tuesday. PLEASE CHECK BACK IN FOR A LIVE CAST ON OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL Despite the forecast taking the center of the storm west of Okinawa the wind field

Violent “Super” Typhoon Neoguri Nears Okinawa, Evacuations in Kyushu Underway

Posted on July 7, 2014 by Robert Speta(westernpacificweather.com)

Residents of the Southern Japanese islands are now making final preperations ahead of a very powerful storm system that threatens to bring damaging winds, high waves and a deluge of rainfall. Typhoon Neoguri now packing winds gusting up to 135kts via JMA and up to 165kts via JTWC continues to slowly strengthen as it races

End

Okinawa Emergency Action Guide

American Red Cross Okinawa

Okinawa Red Cross Hospital

Kadena AFB, Okinawa Facebook page

MARITIME

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP31 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1408 NEOGURI (1408) 950 HPA
AT 28.4N 125.7E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 30.5N 126.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 31.3N 127.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 081200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 998 HPA
AT 34N 153E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 142E 43N 142E
51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 37N 180E 36N 170E 39N 167E 39N 155E 40N
142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 42N 162E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 27N 142E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 51N 153E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 55N 170E SSE 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 124E TO 36N 130E 38N 136E 35N 141E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 161E TO 32N 164E 36N 166E 37N 170E 40N 173E
41N 179E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1408 NEOGURI (1408) 945 HPA AT 27.7N 125.7E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Okinawa/ Naha/ Japan/ Philippines: Typhoon NEOGURI/ FLORITA 08W 061500Z nr 19.3N 129.9E, moving WNW at 11 knots (JTWC) Nearing Okinawa and southern Japanese islands (WestPacWx) – Updated 060714 1518z

July 6, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

Typhoon NEOGURI/ FLORITA now a Super Typhoon. Latest update here: http://wp.me/p2k2mU-2JX

Japan: Tropical Storm (26W) Francisco 250900Z near 29.4N 134.0E, moving NE at 15 knots (JTWC) Heavy rain expected across Japan – 251013 0945z

October 17, 2013 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Storm (26W) Francisco (JTWC)

Severe Tropical Storm (JMA)

��The threat..” “..through Friday and Saturday will be the drenching amount of rainfall Francisco will produce across Japan.”.. “Shikoku threat of flooding and landslides continues”

“..Izu Oshima is especially prone to the storm>>” ( Westernpacificweather)

(Scroll down for Japanese translation) （日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン）

(Image: JTWC) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: JTWC) Satellite (Click image for source)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

TORNADO RISK

Okinawa

(Image: JMA) Okinawa on radar (Click image for source & latest animation)

STS 1327 (FRANCISCO)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 25 October 2013


<Analyses at 25/06 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N28�35′(28.6�)
	E132�30′(132.5�)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure	965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more	E190km(100NM)
	W110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more	E390km(210NM)
	W330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 25/18 UTC>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N30�20′(30.3�)
	E136�40′(136.7�)
Direction and speed of movement	ENE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure	975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle	90km(50NM)
Storm warning area	SE280km(150NM)
	NW200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 26/06 UTC>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N32�30′(32.5�)
	E142�50′(142.8�)
Direction and speed of movement	ENE 50km/h(28kt)
Central pressure	990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle	160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 27/06 UTC>
Intensity	–
	LOW
Center position of probability circle	N36�00′(36.0�)
	E158�00′(158.0�)
Direction and speed of movement	ENE 60km/h(33kt)
Central pressure	1000hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle	390km(210NM)

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

END

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN33 PGTW 250900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 038

02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

—

WARNING POSITION:

250600Z — NEAR 28.9N 133.0E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 045 DEGREES AT 15 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 28.9N 133.0E

—

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

251800Z — 30.7N 137.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 32 KTS

—

24 HRS, VALID AT:

260600Z — 33.6N 143.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

EXTRATROPICAL

—

REMARKS:

250900Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 134.0E.

TROPICAL STORM 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 513 NM

SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z

IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z. REFER TO

TYPHOON 28W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //

NNNN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Oct, 2013 6:00 GMT GMT

Tropical Storm FRANCISCO (26W) currently located near 25.9 N 129.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
��Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
��probability for TS is 60% currently

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Other Reports

Typhoon Francisco Brings Record Rainfall & Lekima hits Outer Islands

Published on October 25, 2013 by robspeta (Meteorologist for NHK World TV in Tokyo) // Westernpacificweather

�Typhoon Francisco has brought nearly three times the normal amount of rainfall for the month of October to portions of Shikoku today resulting in the evacuation over over 500 households and the continues threat of flooding and landslides.

Thus far the storm has produced winds up to 146kph have been seen on Daito Jima while on the Main island of Okinawa 97kph wind gust were recorded. At the Kadena AB where a good bulk of our readers are winds up to 40kts or 75kph has been seen with sustained winds lingering just under Tropical Storm Strength.

The threat though through Friday and Saturday will be the drenching amount of rainfall Francisco will produce across Japan.

Already several landslides have been reported on the Kii Pennisula and in Yoron Kyushu 5,500 people from 2,500 households had to be evacuated. In Kochi Shikoku where over 500mm on rainfall has occured in the past 24hrs over 500 homes have been evacuated due to rising waters.

JMA TRACK

These rains have been due to a Stationary front north of Francisco that has set up with the support of a upper level trough to the north and moisture being sucked in from the typhoon to the south.

With Francisco passing off the coastline on Friday it will add to the heavy rainfall that has already occurred bringing an additional 300mm across the region.

By the time Francisco reaches Tokyo it will be well off shore, yet heavy rainfall is still possible through Friday and Saturday morning. The good news is that the rains should quickly taper off through Saturday evening leaving rapidly improving conditions behind it.

Tokyo is not expected to see damaging winds but there could be a few reports near the water front over 50kph during the overnight hours.� Wide Spread rainfall will be around 100mm across the Kanto area through Saturday afternoon. The worst of the weather in the Kanto area will be near coastal areas and including Izu Oshima.

Izu Oshima is the island where rescue workers continue to search for bodies following last weeks devastating Typhoon which caused a massive landslide is especially prone to the storm.

The areas that were destroyed by last weeks landslide are now lacking vegation to hold the soil in place as heavy rains start to batter the island in to Saturday morning. This means there is a risk of yet more mudslides.

Japan Radar

Nursing facilities and clinics on the island are set to be closed as a precaution ahead of the storm.

Oshima Town officials have evacuated about 550 elderly and disabled people from the island. The rest of the 2,300 residents that reside on the island have been advised to evacuate in fear of more landslides.

For information on preparations people are making ahead of this storm at Fukushima Daiichi please click here

As always Westpacwx is not an official agency. We will never pretend to be. Please check your official agency for information on these storms and the official WMO approved track. In this case JMA not JTWC.�� Westernpacificweather

Residents of Izu Oshima are being advised to evacuate the island today in fear of more landslides following Wipha.

� Robert Speta (@robertspeta) October 25, 2013

Izu Oshima islanders advised to evacuate

Town officials on the island of Izu Oshima, south of Tokyo, have advised more than 2,000 residents in 2 mudslide-ravaged areas to evacuate their homes.

The call on Friday comes as another storm approaches the island.

On October 16th, Typhoon Wipha delivered heavy rain to Izu Oshima, triggering mudslides. 31 people were killed and 13 are still missing.

Town officials fear more downpours due to the approach of severe tropical storm, Francisco, which may loosen the ground further and heighten the risk of more mudslides.

About 2,300 residents in 1,200 households live in the risk areas.

Town officials say they may issue an evacuation advisory for the rest of the island’s areas, depending on the rainfall.

Oct. 25, 2013 – Updated 04:02 UTC

(Video credit: worldnewsdepartment)

Fukushima plant struggles with typhoon threat

The operator of the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant is racing to secure storage space for tainted rainwater as another powerful typhoon approaches.

Tokyo Electric Power Company has begun moving the rainwater into underground pools once deemed too leaky. The water is the result of typhoons and downpours that have filled barriers around radioactive waste water tanks.

TEPCO has been storing the most contaminated rainwater in tanks and in the basement of a turbine building. But with Typhoon Francisco set to hit Japan�s mainland over the weekend, the tanks are full.

Japan�s nuclear regulator has approved moving the tainted water to 3 underground pools. The pools have a total capacity of about 9,000 tons.

TEPCO stopped using the pools after similar models leaked in April. The utility now says it has no other option but to use them.

The utility also says it found 140,000 becquerels per liter of Beta-ray emitting radioactivity in an onsite ditch on Wednesday. The radioactivity has doubled since the previous day. TEPCO says it is transferring the contaminated water to a tank.

Oct. 23, 2013 � Updated 20:39 UTC

MARITIME

(Image: JMA) Marine Warnings (Click image for source)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 250600

WARNING 250600.

WARNING VALID 260600.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

STORM WARNING.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1327 FRANCISCO (1327) 965 HPA

AT 28.6N 132.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 30.3N 136.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 32.5N 142.8E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 36.0N 158.0E WITH 210 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

�

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 250600

WARNING AND SUMMARY 250600.

WARNING VALID 260600.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

GALE WARNING.

DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA

AT 45N 179W SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.

WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND

400 MILES ELSEWHERE.

GALE WARNING.

DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA

AT 45N 137E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.

WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND

300 MILES ELSEWHERE.

GALE WARNING.

NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER

WATERS BOUNDED BY 30N 130E 27N 129E 20N 125E 21N 116E 30N 122E 34N

121E 37N 126E 34N 126E 34N 130E 30N 130E.

GALE WARNING.

NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER

WATERS BOUNDED BY 51N 162E 60N 170E 60N 180E 52N 180E 51N 162E.

SUMMARY.

HIGH 1032 HPA AT 43N 114E SE 10 KT.

HIGH 1026 HPA AT 55N 148E EAST 10 KT.

HIGH 1026 HPA AT 46N 154E ESE 10 KT.

HIGH 1016 HPA AT 21N 170E WEST SLOWLY.

STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 131E TO 32N 134E 33N 137E 32N 142E.

REMARKS.

TYPHOON 1328 LEKIMA (1328) 920 HPA AT 26.9N 144.4E : SEE TROPICAL

CYCLONE WARNING.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1327 FRANCISCO (1327) 965 HPA AT 28.6N 132.5E :

SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 0600

WWCI50 BABJ 250600

2:31:11:11:00

PAN PAN=

MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING

AT 1015UTC OCT.25 2013=

MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC OCT. 25=

FORECAST VALID 0600UTC OCT. 26=

WARNNING=

STS FRANCISCO 1327(1327) 982HPA AT 28.8N 133.0E

MOVING ENE 32KM/H AND MAX WINDS 25M/S NEAR CENTER

(SEAS UP TO 6.5M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS 280KM

AND FORECAST FOR 260600UTC AT 32.7N 143.5E 988HPA

MAX WINDS 23M/S NEAR CENTER=

SUPERTY LEKIMA 1328(1328) 935HPA AT 26.9N 144.4E

MOVING NNE 45KM/H AND MAX WINDS 52M/S NEAR CENTER

(SEAS UP TO 11.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS 400KM

AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS 150KM AND FORECAST FOR

260600UTC AT 36.7N 150.9E 955HPA MAX WINDS 42M/S

NEAR CENTER=

SUMMARY=

N/NE WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO

2.5M OVER YELLOW SEA AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND

BASHI CHANNEL AND NORTH PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

NLY WINDS FROM 14 TO 22M/S SEAS UP TO 4.5M OVER

NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=

NE WINDS FROM 14 TO 20M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER

SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT=

NE WINDS FROM 08 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 1.8M OVER

WEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

WINDS FROM 14 TO 23M/S SEAS UP TO 5.5M OVER SEA

EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS AND SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN

AND SEA WEST OF BONIN ISLANDS=

HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER SEA

SOUTH OF JAPAN AND SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS

AND SEA WEST OF BONIN ISLANDS AND ANDAMAN SEA

AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA STRAIT AND

SULAWESI SEA AND LAUT MALUKU=

FORECAST=

NLY BACK WLY WINDS FROM 07 TO 12M/S SEAS UP 1.5M

OVER BOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT=

N/NW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP

2.5M OVER YELLOW SEA AND KOREA STRAIT AND JAPAN

SEA=

N/NE WINDS FROM 14 TO 20M/S GUST 21 TO 25M/S SEAS

UP TO 3.5M OVER EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT

AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND BASHI CHANNEL=

NE WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER

NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

NE WINDS FROM 08 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER

WEST AND MID-EAST PARTS OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

WINDS FROM 18 TO 24M/S GUST 25M/S SEAS UP TO

5.5M OVER SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN AND SEA EAST OF

RYUKYU ISLANDS AND SEA WEST OF BONIN ISLANDS=

END

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japanese (Translated by Google)

日本： 15ノット全国の予想（ JTWC ）豪雨でNEを移動する熱帯性低気圧（ 26W ）フランシスコ250900Z 29.4N 134.0E付近、 – 251013 0945z

熱帯性低気圧（ 26W ）サンフランシスコ（ JTWC ）
重度の熱帯性低気圧（ JMA ）

” …脅威..” “..金曜日と土曜日スルーフランシスコは、日本全体で生産する降雨の灌注量になります。 ” .. “洪水や地滑りの四国の脅威が”続け

（ Westernpacificweather ） “..伊豆は嵐>>を特に受けやすいOshimais “

（日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン）（日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン）

（画像： JTWC ） 5日間の予報（ソース画像をクリック）

（画像： JTWC ）衛星（ソース画像をクリック）

気象庁

すべての熱帯サイクロン
現在有効な警告/勧告

TORNADOのリスク

沖縄

（画像： JMA ）レーダー上の沖縄（ソース＆最新アニメーション画像をクリック）
STS 1327 （ FRANCISCO ）
6時50分UTC 、 2013年10月25日に発行される
25/06 UTC>で<Analyses
1:43 –
強度 –
中心位置N28 �35 ‘ （28.6 �）
E132 �30 ‘ （ 132.5 �）
動きNEの毎時30キロ（ 15カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧965hPa
中央30メートル/秒付近で最大風速（ 60カラット）
最大突風スピード45メートル/秒（ 85カラット）
50カラット風の面積以上E190km （ 100NM ）
W110km （ 60nmの）
30カラット風の面積以上E390km （波長210nm ）
W330km （ 180nm以下）
18分の25 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
確率サークルN30 �20 ‘の中心位置（30.3 �）
E136 �40 ‘ （ 136.7 �）
動きENE毎時35キロ（ 20カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧975hPa
中央30メートル/秒付近で最大風速（ 60カラット）
最大突風スピード45メートル/秒（ 85カラット）
確率サークル90キロの半径（ 50NM ）
ストーム警告エリアSE280km （ 150nmの）
NW200km （ 110nmの）
26/06 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
確率円の中心位置N32 �30 ‘ （32.5 �）
E142 �50 ‘ （ 142.8 �）
動きENE毎時50キロ（ 28カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧990hPa
中央23メートル/秒付近で最大風速（ 45カラット）
最大突風スピード35メートル/秒（ 65カラット）
確率160キロの円の半径（ 85NM ）
27/06 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
LOW
確率円の中心位置N36 � 00 ‘ （36.0 �）
E158 �00 ‘（ 158.0 �）
動きENE毎時60キロ（ 33カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧1000hPa
最大持続風速18メートル/秒（ 35カラット）
最大突風スピード25メートル/秒（ 50カラット）
確率390キロの円の半径（波長210nm ）

単位：
1KT （ノット）=毎時1.852キロ= 0.5144メートル/秒
1NM （海里）= 1.852キロ

END
合同台風警報センター（ JTWC ）

Google Earthのグラフィックオーバーレイ

WTPN33 PGTW 250900

MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN真珠湾HI / /

SUBJ /熱帯低気圧の警告/ /

RMKS /

1 。 TROPICAL STORM 26W （ FRANCISCO ）警告NR 038

NORTHWESTPAC IN 02 ACTIVE熱帯低気圧

MAXはONE- MINUTE平均に基づいてWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

—

警告POSITION ：

250600Z — NEAR 28.9N 133.0E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 15 KTS AT 045 DEGREES

020 NM以内の正確な位置

POSITIONは、衛星のそば中心を基準に

PRESENT WIND配分：

050 KT 、突風065 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

28.9N 133.0E ： POSITを繰り返す

—

予測：

AT VALID 12時間：

251800Z — 30.7N 137.1E

040 KT 、突風050 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

温帯BECOMING

034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

24人事POSITへのベクトル： 060 DEG / 32 KTS

—

AT VALID 24時間：

260600Z — 33.6N 143.9E

035 KT 、突風045 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

温帯

—

備考：

29.4N 134.0E NEAR 250900Z POSITION 。

TROPICAL STORM 26W （ FRANCISCO ）が、約513 NMのLOCATED

横須賀、 JAPAN 、南西は15ノットで北東追跡して

過去半時間以上。 250600Zで最大有義波高

21フィートです。 251500Z 、 252100Z AND 260300Z AT NEXT警告。参照する

SIX – HOURLY更新用TYPHOON 28W （ LEKIMA ）警告（ WTPN32 PGTW ）。 / /

NNNN
TSR logoNW太平洋： 10月24日に発行される嵐の警告、 2013 GMT GMT 6:00

トロピカルストームサンフランシスコ（ 26W ）は、現在25.9の近くにN 129.8 Eが与えられたリードタイム（ s）で、次の可能性（複数可）に土地を打つと予測されている：

イエローアラート市（s）とタウン（S）
沖縄（26.3 N 、 127.8 E ）
TSのための確率は現在60％である

注意してください
イエローアラート（高架） CAT 1以上〜10 ％と30 ％の確率、又はTSの間に50％以上の確率である。
CAT 1は、少なくとも毎時74マイルの台風の強さの風、毎時119キロまたは64ノット1分間の持続を意味している。
TSは、少なくとも毎時39マイルの熱帯性低気圧の強さの風を意味し、毎時63キロまたは34ノット1分持続。

グラフィカルな予測情報と詳細についてhttp://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/をご覧ください

ストームトラッカー地図
その他のレポート
台風フランシスコは、記録的な雨量をもたらす＆ Lekimaアウター諸島に当たる

robspeta （東京のNHKワールドTVのための気象学者） / / Westernpacificweatherによって2013年10月25日に公開

“台風フランシスコは、500世帯以上にわたって避難の結果四国今日の部分に、10月の月間降水量のほぼ3倍の量を持ってきて、洪水や地滑りの脅威を続けている。

沖縄97kphの突風本島で記録した一方、これまで嵐が146kphまで風を生み出していますが、大東島で見てきた。嘉手納ABで私たちの読者の大半は良い風が40ktsにアップしているどこか75kphは、持続的な風がちょうど熱帯嵐の強さの下に残ると見られている。

金曜日と土曜日を通してしかし脅威はフランシスコは、日本全体で生産する降雨の灌注量になります。

すでにいくつかの地すべりは紀伊Pennisulaに報告し、与論島九州2,500世帯から5,500人が避難しなければならなかったしています。降雨で500ミリメートル以上の500の家の上の過去24時間以内に発生した高知四国で上昇海域のため避難している。

JMAトラック

これらの雨が南に台風から吸い込まれる上位北に谷や湿気の支援を受けて設定しているサンフランシスコの停滞前線の北側に起因している。

フランシスコは、金曜日に海岸線をオフに渡すと、それはすでに地域全体の付加的な300ミリメートルを持って来ることが発生した大雨に追加されます。

フランシスコは東京に達した時点でそれはよく海岸オフになり、まだ大雨は、金曜日と土曜日の朝を通してまだ可能である。良いニュースは、雨がすぐに土曜日の夜を通して先細りはその背後の条件を改善し、急速に離れるべきであるということです。

東京はダメージ風を見ることなく、一晩時間中50kphオーバーウォーターフロントの近くにいくつかの報告があるかもしれないと予想される。ワイドスプレッド降雨は土曜日の午後を通じて関東エリア全体で100ミリメートルの周りになります。関東地方の天気の最悪は伊豆大島を含む沿岸地域と近くなります。

伊豆大島では、救助隊員は、最後の週の大規模な地滑りが嵐に特に傾向が原因と壊滅的な台風の後の体を検索し続ける島です。

最後の週の地すべりによって破壊された地域は今大雨が土曜日の朝に島を打者に始めると場所の土壌を保持するためにvegationを欠いている。これは、まだ多くの土砂崩れの危険性があることを意味します。

日本レーダー

島の介護施設や診療所は、先に嵐の予防措置として閉鎖されるように設定されている。

大島町の職員は島から約550高齢者や障害者が避難している。島に存在する2,300の住民の残りの部分は、より地滑りの恐怖の中で避難することをお勧めしてきた。

人々が先に福島第一に、この嵐の作って準備する方法についてはここをクリックしてください

いつものようにWestpacwxは公式代理店ではありません。私たちはふりをすることは決してありません。これらの嵐や公式WMO承認のトラックについては、ご使用の公的機関を確認してください。この場合、気象庁JTWCれていません ” – 。 Westernpacificweather

伊豆大島の住民はWiphaに従うより地滑りの恐怖の中で、今日島を避難させることをお勧めされています。

– ロバートSpeta （ @ robertspeta ） 2013年10月25日

NHK WORLD
伊豆大島島民が避難することをお勧めし

伊豆大島、東京の南の島の町の当局者は彼らの家を避難させる2土砂崩れで荒廃した地域で2,000人以上の住民に助言している。

別の嵐が島に近づくと金曜日に呼び出しが来る。

10月16日に、台風Wiphaは土砂崩れを誘発する、伊豆大島に大雨を納入。 31人が死亡し、 13はまだ不足している。

町の職員は、さらに地面を緩め、より土砂崩れの危険性を高めることが深刻な熱帯暴風雨、サンフランシスコ、のアプローチのために多くの豪雨を恐れる。

1,200世帯で約2,300住民が危険地域に住んでいる。

町当局は、降雨量に応じて、島の地域の残りのための避難勧告を発行することができると言う。

2013年10月25日 – 更新4時02 UTC

（ビデオクレジット： worldnewsdepartment ）
福島工場は台風の脅威と格闘

不自由福島第一原子力発電所のオペレータは、別の強力な台風のアプローチとして汚染された雨水用の収納スペースを確保して走っている。

東京電力は、かつてあまりに漏れみなさ地下プールに雨水を動かし始めている。水は放射性廃棄物の水タンクの周りに障壁を満たした台風や豪雨の結果である。

東京電力はタンクに、タービン建屋の地下で最も汚染された雨水を格納されています。しかし台風フランシスコは週末に日本の本土を襲ったに設定して、タンクがいっぱいです。

日本の原子力レギュレータは3地下プールに汚染水を移動し承認した。プールは、約9000トンの総容量を持っている。

東京電力は4月にリークされた同様のモデルの後にプールを使用して停止。ユーティリティは、今ではそれらを使用する他のオプションが、を持っていませんと言います。

ユーティリティはまた、水曜日に現場溝でベータ線を放出する放射能のリットル14万ベクレルを発見したと言います。放射能は、前日以降倍増している。東京電力は、それがタンクに汚染された水を転送してと言います。

2013年10月23日 – 更新20時39 UTC
MARITIME

（画像： JMA ）マリン警告（ソース画像をクリック）
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21は250600をRJTD

WARNING 250600 。

VALID 260600警告。

警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。

暴風雨警報。

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1327サンフランシスコ（ 1327 ） 965 HPA

28.6N日本国132.5E SEA SOUTHは、北東15ノットの移動。

POSITIONのFAIR 。

MAXは、中心部に近い60ノットの風。

50 OVER KNOTのWINDS 100 kmイースト半円と60マイルの半径

ELSEWHERE 。

30 OVER KNOTのWINDS 210 kmイースト半円と180マイルの半径

ELSEWHERE 。

50マイル半径30.3N 136.7E AT 251800UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

975 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 60ノット。

85マイルの半径32.5N 142.8E AT 260600UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

990 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 45ノット。

EXTENDED見通し。

210マイルの半径36.0N 158.0E AT 270600UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

千HPAは、 MAXは35ノットの風。

温帯LOW BECOMING 。

気象庁。 =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 250600

WARNINGと要約250600 。

VALID 260600警告。

警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。

GALE警告。

LOW 988 HPAを開発

45N ATアリューシャンOF 179W SEA SOUTH EASTは10ノットの移動。

WINDSはLOW南西部の700マイル以内に30〜40ノット半円AND

ELSEWHERE 400マイル。

GALE警告。

LOW 1002 HPAの開発

JAPAN 、北東15ノットを移動する45N 137E SEA AT 。

WINDSはLOW SOUTHEAST OF 600 km以内の30 〜35ノット半円AND

ELSEWHERE 300マイル。

GALE警告。

OVER実勢30〜40 KNOTS北東WINDS TO北風

30N 130E 27N 129E 20N 125E 21N 116E 30N 122E 34Nで囲まWATERS

121E 37N 126E 34N 126E 34N 130E 30N 130E 。

GALE警告。

OVER実勢30 〜35 KNOTS北東WINDS TO北風

WATERSは51N 162E 60N 170E 60N 180E 52N 180E 51N 162Eに囲まれ。

概要。

43N 114E SE 10 KT AT HIGH 1032 HPA 。

55N 148E EAST 10 KT AT HIGH 1026 HPA 。

46N 154E ESE 10 KT AT HIGH 1026 HPA 。

21N 170E WEST AT HIGH 1016 HPAゆっくり。

30N 131E FROM 32N 134E 33N 137E 32N 142Eに対して静止FRONT 。

REMARKS 。

TYPHOON 1328 LEKIMA （ 1328 ） 26.9N 144.4E AT 920 HPA ： TROPICAL SEE

CYCLONE警告。

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1327サンフランシスコ（ 1327 ） 28.6N 132.5E AT 965 HPA ：

熱帯低気圧の警告が表示されます。

気象庁。 =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 0600

WWCI50 BABJ 250600

2:31:11:11:00

PAN PAN =

NAVAREA XI （IOR ）のメッセージは、 NMC BEIJINGによって発行された

1015UTC 10月25日2013年= AT

メッセージは= EVERY 06 HOURSに更新されます

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC 10月25 =

VALID 0600UTC 10月を見込んでいます。 26 =

=をWARNNING

STS FRANCISCO 28.8N 133.0E AT 1327 （ 1327 ） 982HPA

ENE 32キロ/ HとMAX WINDS 25M / Sセンターの近くをMOVING

（UP 6.5M TO SEAS ） AND 280KM 30KTS WINDS OF RADIUS

AND 32.7N 143.5E 988HPA AT 260600UTCの見通し

CENTER = NEAR MAX WINDS 23M / S

26.9N 144.4E AT SUPERTY LEKIMA 1328 （ 1328 ） 935HPA

NNE 45KM / HとMAX WINDS 52M /センターの近くのS MOVING

（UP 11.0M TO SEAS ） AND 400キロ30KTS WINDS OF RADIUS

50KTS WINDS OFと半径150kmのANDの見通し

36.7N 150.9E 955HPA MAX WINDS 42M / S AT 260600UTC

CENTER = NEAR

概要=

10から最大16M / Sガスト20M / S SEAS TO N / NE WINDS

黄海、台湾SEA EAST OVER 2.5M AND

バシー海峡と南シナ海の北PART =

14 FROM UP 4.5M TO OVER 22M / S SEAS TO NLYのWINDS

東シナ海北部=

14 FROM UP 3.5M TO OVER 20M / S SEAS TO NEのWINDS

東シナ海と台湾海峡=南部

08 FROM UP 1.8M TO OVER 12M / S SEAS TO NEのWINDS

南シナ海の西PART =

14からUP 23M / S SEAS TO SEA OVER 5.5M TO WINDS

琉球と日本SEA SOUTH OF EAST

AND小笠原諸島OF SEA WEST =

SEA OVER 10KM THAN HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS

日本と琉球SEA EAST OF SOUTH

AND小笠原諸島の海西とアンダマン海

AND SEAシンガポールとスンダ海峡東と

スラウェシ海とラウトマルク=

FORECAST =

07 FROM 1.5M UP 12M / S SEAS TO BACK NLYはWLY WINDS

渤海AND渤海STRAIT = OVER

10〜 16M / Sガスト20M / S SEASまでN / NW WINDS

黄海や韓国海峡JAPAN OVER 2.5M

SEA =

14からS / 25M SEAS TO 20M / Sガスト21〜 N / A NE WINDS

UP東シナ海や台湾海峡の3.5M TO

と台湾の海東とバシー海峡=

12 FROM UP 16M / SのSEAS TO OVER 2.5M TO NEのWINDS

南シナ海北東部=

08 FROM UP 1.5M TO OVER 12M / S SEAS TO NEのWINDS

西と南シナ海MID- EAST PARTS =

18から最大24M / Sガスト25M / S SEAS TO WINDS

日本海南部とSEA EAST OF OVER 5.5M

琉球諸島と小笠原諸島OF SEA WEST =

END

生きるか死ぬかの決定のためにこのサイト上のすべての情報を使用しないでください。すべての情報は、公式のソースへの補足として意図されています。親切な地元の警告、勧告や速報のためにあなたの国の公式の気象機関/政府Webサイトを参照してください。

China/Taiwan/Japan: TD 1323 ex-FITOW: 070600Z near 27.0N 118.0E, moving WNW at 10 knots (JMA) made Fujian province landfall – 071013 1815z

October 4, 2013 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Cyclone (Tropical Depression) ex-Fitow

Typhoon Fitow made landfall in East China’s �Fujian province in the early hours on Monday

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: JMA) 5 Day Track Forecast (Click image for source)

TD
Issued at 07:00 UTC, 7 October 2013


<Analyses at 07/06 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
	TD
Center position	N27�00′(27.0�)
	E118�00′(118.0�)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure	1000hPa

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 6 Oct, 2013 12:00 GMT

Typhoon FITOW (22W) currently located near 27.0 N 121.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
��China
��probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
��probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
��probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 12 hours
��probability for TS is 100% currently
��Fu�an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
��probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
��probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
��probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
��probability for TS is 100% currently
��Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
��probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
��Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)
��probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
��Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)
��probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
��Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
��probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
��Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
��probability for TS is 95% currently
��Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)
��probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
��Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
��probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
��Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
��probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
��T�aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
��probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours
��Nanchang (28.7 N, 115.9 E)
��probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Other Reports

Typhoon Fitow makes landfall in E China

Updated: 2013-10-07 05:41

( Xinhua)

FUZHOU – Typhoon Fitow made landfall in East China’s �Fujian province in the wee hours on Monday, packing winds up to 151 km per hour, the National Meteorological Center said.

The storm, the 23rd typhoon to hit China this year, landed in Shacheng Township of Fuding city at 1:15 am Monday. It will continue to move northwestward but weaken quickly, said the center. A red alert, the highest warning, was issued for Fitow on Sunday.

Cities such as Fuzhou and Sanming in Fujian will see rain of more than 200 mm from Sunday night to Monday morning, said the Fujian flood control authorities.

Due to the typhoon, power was cut off in Taishun county, Zhejiang province, at 11 pm Sunday. The power blackout also hit many townships in Cangnan, Wencheng, Pingyang and Dongtou counties in Zhejiang.

Mao Fanggui, director of the emergency office in Taishun county, told Xinhua downpour was lashing the county and most townships in the county were hit by blackout.

A boy in Cangnan county was injured in the abdomen by glass debris due to strong winds. He was being treated by doctors.

Rainstorm and winds up to 201 km per hour slashed Cangnan County and the Nanji Island Township, and some houses collapsed in the county, said the Wenzhou flood control headquarters.

As of 6 p.m. Sunday, some 574,000 people were evacuated and 35,795 vessels returned to harbor for shelter, said the Zhejiang Provincial Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters.

In Fujian, 177,000 people were displaced and nearly 30,000 fishing boats were called back.

The typhoon has caused suspension of bullet trains in several cities in Zhejiang, Fujian and Jiangxi and halted services on at least 35 lines that pass cities on the typhoon route, including services between Beijing and Nanjing, Shanghai, Ningbo, Fuzhou and Xiamen.

Wenzhou Airport, a pivotal airport in Zhejiang province, canceled 27 flights on Sunday, including flights to Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Kunming.

Coach services between Shanghai and Wenzhou were also suspended on Sunday. Maritime authorities in Fujian and Zhejiang have closed seaside bathing centers and other entertainment facilities on the coast.

MARITIME

(Image: JMA) Marine Warnings (Click image for source & links)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 RJTD 071500
WARNING 071500.
WARNING VALID 081500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1324 DANAS (1324) 935 HPA
AT 28.9N 127.3E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 31.6N 126.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 33.8N 129.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 1200

WWCI50 BABJ 071200
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1530UTC OCT.07 2013=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC OCT. 07=
FORECAST VALID 1200UTC OCT. 08=
WARNNING=
SUPER TY DANAS 1324(1324) 935HPA AT 28.1N 127.8E
MOVING NNW 25KM/H AND MAX WINDS 52M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 10.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS 350KM AND
RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS 160KM AND FORECAST FOR 081200UTC
AT 33.5N 128.3E 965HPA MAX WINDS 38M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
NE WINDS FROM 10 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER
SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA=
E-NE WINDS FROM 12 TO 18M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER
EAST CHINA SEA AND KOREA STRAIT=
WINDS FROM 14 TO 28M/S SEAS UP TO 5.5M OVER
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS=
WINDS FROM 30 TO 55M/S SEAS UP TO 10.0M OVER SEA
NEAR CENTER OF DANAS=
WINDS FROM 07 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
BASHI CHANNEL=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER SEA
EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS AND ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA
EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA STRAIT AND SULAWESI
SEAU=
FORECAST=
NE WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER
BOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT AND NORTH AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF YELLOW=
NE WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUST 21 TO 28M/S SEAS
UP TO 3.5M OVER SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA=
WINDS FROM 14 TO 24M/S GUST 25 TO 35M/S SEAS UP
TO 6.0M OVER EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA EAST OF RYUKYU
ISLANDS AND KOREA STRAIT=
WINDS FROM 30 TO 55M/S SEAS UP TO 10.0M OVER SEA
NEAR CENTER OF DANAS=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 18M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER
SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=
WINDS FROM 10 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN=
NLY WINDS FROM 07 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
BEIBU GULF=
WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER
ANDAMAN SEA=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 1200

WWHK82 VHHH 071200
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA (ECS).
SYNOPSIS (071200UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
SUPER TYPHOON DANAS NEAR OKINAWA IS EXPECTED TO BRING GALE
FORCE WINDS TO THE ECS LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER THE ECS LATER.
SWELL E TO NE 3 M OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN AND THE ECS.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) OVER THE ECS LATER.
SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER GULF OF THAILAND, THE SOUTHERN
PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA, SEAS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
PHILIPPINES AND SEAS NEAR MALAYSIA.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

Japanese (Translated by Google)

中国/台湾/日本：台風（CAT1-SS）22W FITOW：16ノット福建省や浙江省、中国での予想（JTWC）上陸でNWを移動27.1N121.1Eの近く061500Z、月曜日の朝0610131720z上

熱帯低気圧（台風） Fitow
（国立海洋環境予測センター）月曜日の朝に福建省や浙江省で上陸することが予想

RED CHINAのアラート � 特に温州（ 27.5 N 、 120.5 E）＆福安市（ 27.1 N 、 119.7 E）は注意してください！（TSR）

（画像： wunderground.com ）衛星（ソース画像をクリック）

（画像： wunderground.com ） 5日間の予報（ソース画像をクリック）

気象庁

1323

（画像： JMA ） 5日トラックの予測（ソース画像をクリック）
TY 1323 （ FITOW ）
13：10 UTC 、 2013年10月6日に発行される
6月12日UTC>で<Analyses
1:43 –
強い強度
中心位置N26 �40 � （26.7 �）
E121 �40 � （ 121.7 �）
動き西北西毎時20キロ（ 10カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧975hPa
中央35メートル/秒付近で最大風速（ 65カラット）
最大突風スピード50メートル/秒（ 95カラット）
50カラット風の面積以上ALL110km （ 60nmの）
30カラット風の面積以上N440km （ 240NM ）
S330km （ 180nm以下）
07/00 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
確率サークルN27 �25 � （27.4 �）の中心位置
E119 �30 � （ 119.5 �）
動き西北西毎時20キロ（ 10カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧985hPa
最大持続風速25メートル/秒（ 50カラット）
最大突風スピード35メートル/秒（ 70カラット）
確率サークル90キロの半径（ 50NM ）
7月12日UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
確率円の中心位置N27 �20 � （27.3 �）
E118 �30 � （ 118.5 �）
運動Wの方向と速度をゆっくり
中心気圧998hPa
最大持続風速18メートル/秒（ 35カラット）
最大突風スピード25メートル/秒（ 50カラット）
確率130キロの円の半径（ 70nmの）
8月12日UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
TD
確率サークルN26 �25 � （26.4 �）の中心位置
E117 � 05 � （ 117.1 �）
動きの方向と速度はゆっくりSW
中心気圧1002hPa
確率300キロの円の半径（ 160NM ）
合同台風警報センター（ JTWC ）

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2213.gif

（画像： JTWC ） TCトラック（ソース画像をクリック）

Google Earthのグラフィックオーバーレイ

WTPN33 PGTW 061500
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN真珠湾HI / /
SUBJ /熱帯低気圧の警告/ /
RMKS /
1 。 TYPHOON 22W （ FITOW ）警告NR 026
NORTHWESTPAC IN 02 ACTIVE熱帯低気圧
MAXはONE- MINUTE平均に基づいてWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
�
警告POSITION ：
061200Z � NEAR 27.0N 121.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS � 16 KTS AT 310 DEGREES
040 NM以内の正確な位置
POSITIONは、衛星のそば中心を基準に
PRESENT WIND配分：
065 KT 、突風080 KT � MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS � 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS � 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
27.0N 121.7E ： POSITを繰り返す
�
予測：
AT VALID 12時間：
070000Z � 27.2N 119.4E
050 KT 、突風065 KT � MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
24人事POSITへのベクトル：255 DEG / 09 KTS
�
AT VALID 24時間：
071200Z � 26.7N 117.4E
035 KT 、突風045 KT � MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
LAND比べて大きな熱帯低気圧AS散逸
36人事POSITへのベクトル：245 DEG / 09 KTS
�
VALID AT 36時間：
080000Z � 25.9N 115.6E
020 KT 、突風030 KT � MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
LAND比べて大きな熱帯低気圧として散逸
�
備考：
27.1N 121.1E NEAR 061500Z POSITION 。
TYPHOON 22W （ FITOW ）は、約115 NM NORTH OF LOCATED
台北、台湾では、 OVER 16ノットで北西追跡して
過去六時間。 061200Zで最大有義波高は22です
FEET 。 062100Z 、 070300Z 、 070900Z AND 071500Z AT NEXT警告。 REFER
SIX � HOURLY FOR TYPHOON 23W （ DANAS ）警告（ WTPN31 PGTW ）へ
UPDATES 。 / /
NNNN
TSRロゴ北西太平洋： 10月6日に発行される嵐の警告、 2013十二時00分GMT

台風FITOW （ 22W ）は、現在27.0の近くにN 121.7 Eが与えられたリードタイム（ s）で、次の可能性（複数可）に土地を打つと予測されている：

レッドアラート国（s）または州（ S）
中国
CAT 1の確率以上では、12時間以内に70％である
TSのための確率は現在のところ100％
レッドアラート市（s）とタウン（S）
温州（ 27.5 N 、 120.5 E ）
CAT 1の確率以上では、12時間以内に65％である
TSのための確率は現在のところ100％
福安市（ 27.1 N 、 119.7 E ）
CAT 1の確率以上では、12時間以内に40％で
TSの確率は、12時間以内に100％

イエローアラートカントリー（s）または州（ S）
台湾
TSのための確率は現在のところ100％
イエローアラート市（s）とタウン（S）
温嶺（ 28.4 N 、 121.4 E ）
TSのための確率は現在のところ100％
福州（26.1 N 、 119.3 E ）
TSの確率は、12時間以内に100％
金華（29.2 N 、 120.0 E ）
TSの確率は、12時間以内に95％で
衢州（29.0 N 、 119.0 E ）
TSの確率は、12時間以内に95％で
プーティエン（25.6 N 、 119.0 E ）
TSのための確率は約24時間で95％で
台北（25.0 N 、 121.5 E ）
TSのための確率は現在95％で
寧波（29.7 N 、 121.5 E ）
TSの確率は、12時間以内に85％
泉州（25.0 N 、 118.5 E ）
TSのための確率は約24時間で80％
漳州（24.5 N 、 117.8 E ）
TSのための確率は約24時間で60％で
T�aichung （24.1 N 、 120.7 E ）
TSの確率は、12時間以内に55％である
南昌（ 28.7 N 、 115.9 E ）
TSのための確率は約24時間で55％である

注意してください
レッドアラートは、（重症） CAT 1または％ 31 〜100 ％の確率に上です。
イエローアラート（高架） CAT 1以上〜10 ％と30 ％の確率、又はTSの間に50％以上の確率である。
CAT 1は、少なくとも毎時74マイルの台風の強さの風、毎時119キロまたは64ノット1分間の持続を意味している。
TSは、少なくとも毎時39マイルの熱帯性低気圧の強さの風を意味し、毎時63キロまたは34ノット1分持続。

グラフィカルな予測情報と詳細についてhttp://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/をご覧ください
その他のレポート

中国日報ウェブサイト
Fitowとしてレッドアラートがで終了
更新日： 2013年10月6日午前23時10
シャンフアン（中国日報）によって
台風は福建省や浙江省で上陸することが予想

沿岸地域では台風Fitow用ブレースとして嵐潮と高波のために赤のアラートは、日曜日に海事当局によって発行された。

今年中国にヒットする23台風は月曜日の朝に福建省や浙江省で上陸すると予想され、国立海洋環境予測センターは述べています。

Fitowとしてレッドアラートがで終了

台風Fitowは温嶺、浙江省を下にクマと兵士たちは日曜日に沿岸防衛を確認してください。 Fitowが月曜日に早期に福建省や浙江省で上陸すると予測されているとして、高潮のために海事当局は赤いアラート、最も高い警告を、発行している。【 CHINA DAILY FOR JIA CE / BY PHOTO ]

10メートルと高い波が東シナ海で期待されている。

Fitowの中心は土曜日の夜に浙江省の温州の約590キロ南東にあった、と時速18キロの速度で沿岸地域を打つように設定され、予報は語った。

漁師が港に戻るよう促されたと当局は潮のサージの準備のために港湾施設や修理海の壁を補強するように求めていた、新華社が報じた。

追って通知があるまでの沿岸の観光サイトが閉じられます。

中国は最も深刻を表す赤色で、 4層の色分けされた気象警報システムを使用して、黄色及び青色オレンジした。

上海では、突風と豪雨は上海気象局によると、日曜日の夜にピークを迎えると予想されていた。

治水当局は黄浦江の水レベル以上の警告を発行していると市職員が実施されるように予防措置を求めている、地元メディアが報じた。

上海鉄道局は、上海虹橋駅から浙江省の温州、福建省福州、厦門、月曜日のためにチケットの販売を停止している。

中国東方航空は、日本では上海浦東国際空港と沖縄の間の土曜日に2便がキャンセルされ、より多くの飛行キャンセルが必要になる場合があります。

花火が上海観光局によると、火曜日まで延期された浦東新区にセンチュリーパークで日曜の夜に予定が表示されます。

浙江省のいくつかの都市で新幹線のサービスが中断され、温州空港は、北京、広州、上海、昆明へのフライトを含む日曜日に27便が、キャンセルされた。

上海、温州を結ぶ長距離バスサービスも閉鎖された。

大雨は日曜日に浙江省を打つようになった。

20万人以上の人々は日曜日の朝まで温州、台州、寧波、および舟山で安全な場所に避難していたと35,000船舶は港に戻っていた。

一方、ダムや波の障壁を検査し、強化されていた。

災害救援活動のために、人民解放軍の5,000兵士は待機することを命ぜられた。

福建省では、海事当局は安全性に128,000漁師を排気し、日曜日の午後でほぼ30,000漁船をバックと呼ばれる、新華社が報じた。当局はまた、沿岸の娯楽施設を閉鎖した。

新華社はこの物語に貢献した。
0

Chinese (Translated by Google)

中國/台灣/日本：颱風（CAT1–SS）22W菲特：27.1N121.1E附近，061500Z西北16海裡（聯合颱風警報中心）登陸後，預計在福建，浙江兩省，中國移動，在星期一早上0610131720z

熱帶氣旋（颱風）菲特
預測在星期一早晨在福建和浙江兩省登陸（國家海洋環境預報中心）

紅色警戒中國 � 尤其是溫州（27.5 N， 120.5 E）福安市（27.1 N， 119.7 E）當心！（ TSR ）

（圖片提供： wunderground.com ）衛星（點擊圖片來源）

（圖片： wunderground.com ）五天天氣預報（點擊圖片源）

日本氣象廳

1323

（圖片提供： JMA ） 5天路徑預報（點擊圖片源）
TY 1323 （菲特）
發行於2013年10月6日， 13:10 UTC
在6月12日UTC> <Analyses
秤 –
強度強
中心位置N26 �40′ （ 26.7 � ）
E121� 40 � （121.7 � ）
方向和速度運動西北20公里每小時（萬噸）
中心氣壓975hPa
附近的中心35M / s的最大風速（ 65克拉）
最大陣風速度50M / s的（ 95克拉）
區的風50克拉或更多ALL110km （ 60NM ）
區的風30克拉或更多N440km （ 240NM ）
S330km （ 180納米）
<Forecast為07/00 UTC>
強度 –
中心位置的概率圓N27 �25′ （ 27.4 � ）
E119 �30′ （119.5 � ）
方向和速度運動西北20公里每小時（萬噸）
中心氣壓985hPa
最大持續風速25M / s的（ 50克拉）
最大陣風速度35M / s的（ 70克拉）
半徑概率圓90公里（ 50NM ）
7月12日UTC> <Forecast
強度 –
概率圈的中心位置N27 �20′ （ 27.3 � ）
E118 �30′ （118.5 � ）
慢慢的方向和速度的運動W
中心氣壓998hPa
最大持續風速18m / s的（ 35克拉）
最大陣風線速度25m / s的（ 50克拉）
半徑概率圓130公里（ 70納米）
8月12日UTC> <Forecast
強度 –
TD
中心位置的概率圓N26 �25′ （ 26.4 � ）
E117 �05′ （117.1 � ）
慢慢的運動方向和速度SW
中央壓力1002hPa
半徑概率圓300公里（ 160NM ）
聯合颱風警報中心（ JTWC ）

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2213.gif

（圖片提供：聯合颱風警報中心）熱帶氣旋路徑（點擊圖片源）

谷歌地球圖形疊加

WTPN33 PGTW 061500
，MSGID / GENADMIN的的/合營號颱風� WRNCEN �珍珠港HI / /
的SUBJ /熱帶氣旋警告/ /
RMKS /
1。颱風22W（菲特）警告NR 026
02個活躍的熱帶氣旋NORTHWESTPAC
基於一分鐘平均最大持續風速
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
�
警告位置：
061200Z �近27.0N 121.7E
運動過去六小時 � 310度16 KTS
位置精確到040海裡內
基於位置的衛星中心
目前風分佈：
最大持續風速 � 065 KT ，陣風080 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
半徑為050千噸風 � 085 NM東北象限
085海裡，東南象限
095海裡，西南象限
095 NM西北象限
– 160海裡半徑為034千噸風東北象限
160 NM東南象限
145 NM西南象限
165 NM西北象限
重複POSIT ： 27.0N 121.7E
�
預測：
12小時，有效的：
070000Z � 27.2N 119.4E
最大持續風速 � 050 KT ，陣風065 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
向量POSIT至24小時：255度/ 09 KTS
�
24小時，有效的：
071200Z � 26.7N 117.4E
最大持續風速 � 035 KT ，陣風045 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在土地消散
矢量36小時POSIT ： 245度/ 09 KTS
�
36小時，有效的：
080000Z � 25.9N 115.6E
最大持續風速 � 020 KT ，陣風030 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在土地消耗
�
備註：
27.1N 121.1E 061500Z位置附近。
颱風22W（菲特），位於北部約115納米
TAIPEI ， TAIWAN ，西北跟踪的16海裡以上
過去六個小時。最大有效波高在061200Z 22
英尺。 062100Z 070300Z 070900Z及071500Z NEXT警告。符號
颱風23W （丹娜絲於）警告（ WTPN31 PGTW ）六小時
更新/ /
分
TSR標誌西北太平洋： 10月6日發出的風暴警報， 2013 12:00 GMT

颱風菲特（22W ）目前位於27.0附近，東經121.7預測鉛在給定的時間（s ）以下的可能性（次）取得土地：

紅色警戒國家（S）或省（ S ）
中國
CAT 1或以上的概率是70 ％在12小時內
為TS的概率是100 ％，目前
紅色警戒市（s）和鎮（S ）
溫州（27.5 N， 120.5 ）
CAT 1或以上的概率是65％，在12小時內
為TS的概率是100 ％，目前
福安市（27.1 N， 119.7 � ）
CAT 1或以上的概率是40 ％在12小時內
變性人的概率是100％，在12小時內

黃色警示國家（S）或省（ S ）
台灣
為TS的概率是100 ％，目前
黃色警報城（s）和鎮（S ）
溫嶺市（28.4 N， 121.4 ）
為TS的概率是100 ％，目前
福州（26.1 N， 119.3 � ）
變性人的概率是100％，在12小時內
金華（29.2 N， 120.0 � ）
變性人的概率是95％，在12小時內
衢州（29.0 N， 119.0 � ）
變性人的概率是95％，在12小時內
莆田（25.6 N， 119.0 � ）
為TS的概率是95％，在約24小時
台北（25.0 N， 121.5 ）
變性人的概率是95 ％，目前
寧波（29.7 N， 121.5 ）
變性人的概率是85 ％在12小時內
泉州（25.0 N， 118.5 � ）
為TS的概率是80％，在約24小時
漳州（ 24.5東經117.8 ）
為TS的概率是60％，在約24小時
T�aichung （24.1 N， 120.7 � ）
變性人的概率是55％，在12小時內
南昌（28.7 N， 115.9 � ）
為TS的概率是55％，在約24小時

需要注意的是
紅色警報（嚴重）是CAT 1或以上至31％和100 ％的概率。
黃色警戒（升高）是CAT 1或以上的介於10％和30 ％的概率，或者在50％以上的概率。
CAT 1意味著颱風強度至少74英里的風，119公里/小時或每小時64海裡，持續1分鐘。
TS意味著至少39英里的熱帶風暴強度的風， 63公里每小時34節1分鐘持續。

對於圖形的預測信息和進一步詳情，請訪問http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
其他報告

中國日報網站
紅色警報菲特關閉
更新時間： 2013年10月6日23:10
單娟（中國日報）
預計颱風登陸福建和浙江兩省

海事當局發出紅色警報風暴潮和高波上週日，，沿海地區颱風菲特支撐。

打中國今年第23號颱風預計在星期一上午在福建和浙江兩省登陸，國家海洋環境預報中心說。

紅色警報菲特關閉

士兵檢查上週日的沿海防禦颱風菲特壓在浙江省溫嶺市。海事當局已發出紅色警報，最高溫預警，風暴潮菲特預測週一早些時候在福建和浙江兩省登陸。 [圖片由賈CE / �中國日報]

預計將在中國東海海浪高達10米。

氣象預報說，菲特中心在浙江省溫州東南約590公里，並設置上週六晚打沿海地區可達18公里每小時的速度。

新華社報導，敦促漁民返回港口，並要求當局加強港口設施和維修海堤準備湧潮。

沿海旅遊景點將被關閉，直至另行通知為止。

中國採用的是四層的顏色編碼的天氣預警系統，用紅色代表最嚴重，其次是橙色，黃色和藍色。

在上海，預計最高峰會在週日晚上的陣風和暴雨，據上海氣象局。

水位超過防洪部門已發出警告，在黃浦江上，並實施預防措施，以城市，官員們呼籲，當地媒體報導。

上海鐵路局暫停門票銷售，週一從上海虹橋火車站，在浙江溫州，福建福州和廈門。

中國東方航空公司取消了兩個航班上週六在上海浦東國際機場和沖繩之間，在日本，可能需要更多的航班取消。

計劃於週日晚在浦東新區世紀公園煙花匯演已被推遲到週二，根據上海旅遊局。

子彈頭列車服務暫停在幾個城市在浙江省和溫州機場取消27個航班上週日，包括北京，廣州，上海，昆明的航班。

教練服務，連接上海和溫州也被關閉。

開始有大雨到上週日打浙江。

超過20萬人被疏散到安全的地方，在溫州，台州，寧波，舟山，週日早上和35,000艘已經返回港口。

同時，水壩和波壁壘被檢查和強化。

對於救災行動，解放軍已下令5000名士兵待命。

新華社報導，在福建，海事部門疏散128,000漁民安全和召回近30000漁船週日下午。當局還關閉了沿海地區的娛樂設施。

新華社貢獻到這個故事。
0

相關的故事

浙江省颱風菲特磅
中國UPS警告颱風菲特接近
中國問題最高的颱風預警
268名漁民受困，受颱風蝴碟保存

海事

（圖片提供： JMA）海洋警告（點擊圖片源鏈接）
METAREA11 / / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN的1200

WTJP23 RJTD 061200
警告061200 。
警告有效071200 。
警告6小時更新一次。
颱風警報。
颱風1323菲特（1323） 975 HPA
AT 26.7N 121.7E東中國海搬家西北偏西10海裡。
POSITION不錯。
中心附近最大風65節。
超過50結風半徑60英里。
超過30個結風半徑240公里北半圓和180英里
在別處。
預測位置在50英里半徑27.4N 119.5E 070000UTC
70 ％的概率圓。
985 HPA ，最大WINDS 50海裡。
預測位置在70英里半徑27.3N 118.5E 071200UTC
70 ％的概率圓。
998 HPA ，最大WINDS 35海裡。
擴展前景。
預測位置在160英里半徑26.4N 117.1E 081200UTC
70 ％的概率圓。
1002百帕。
熱帶低氣壓BECOMING 。

日本氣象廳。
METAREA11 / / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA的1200

WWCI50 BABJ 061200
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN =
北京NMC發出消息：第十一NAVAREA （ IOR ）
AT 1530UTC OCT.06 2013 =
更新消息是每06小時=
概要有效1200UTC華僑城。 06 =
預測有效1200UTC華僑城。 07 =
WARNNING =
STY菲特1323（ 1323） AT 26.8N 121.8E移動955HPA
西北偏西18KM / H和MAX WINDS 42M / S中心附近（ SEAS
高達9.5M ）半徑30KTS風350KM
100KM 50KTS風半徑及預測
071200UTC AT 27.0N 117.1E 998HPA最大WINDS 16M / S
靠近市中心=
STY達納斯1324 （1324） AT 22.8N 133.5E移動950HPA
西北30KM / H和MAX WINDS 45M / S中心附近（ SEAS
高達9.5M ）半徑30KTS風300KM
RADIUS 50KTS風130KM及預測
071200UTC AT 27.5N 128.4E 940HPA最大WINDS 50M / S
靠近市中心=
摘要=
從25到35M / S陣風38〜 42M / S SEAS UP WINDS
OVER的一部分，中國東海南部= 9.5M
24M / S陣風25到30M / S SEAS UP TO 13日至WINDS
的6.0M華北的一部分，東中國海和東部海域
作者：琉球群島，北馬里亞納海城西
群島和小笠原群島的海城西=
風速：從33到42M / S的SEAS UP到9.5M OVER SEA
中心附近菲特=
風速：從33到42M / S的SEAS UP到9.5M OVER SEA
中心附近達納斯=
風從11到20M / S到4.0M OVER海域
台灣海峽及台灣以東海域=
西北風從08到16M / S SEAS UP 2.5M OVER
中國南海東北部=
NE / E風從08到16M / S SEAS 2.5M OVER
日本和朝鮮海峽=以南海域
水平能見度小於10KM OVER南
的一部分，東中國海和安達曼海和海
西蘇門答臘和北部分泰國灣
與新加坡和巽他海峽和東部海域
蘇拉威西海=
預測=
WINDS 33〜 42M / S洲到9.0M OVER SEA
中心附近菲特=
風從17到28M / S SEAS在東亞6.0M
中國南海和台灣海峽東部海域
台灣和琉球群島以東海域及海
西，北馬里亞納群島的海城西
小笠原群島=
WINDS 29〜 48M / S洲到10.0M過海
中心附近達納斯=
NW回SW WINDS從08到16M / S SEAS UP
2.5M OVER巴士海峽=
西北風10到16M / S SEAS UP 2.5M OVER
中國南海東北部=
東北大風從11到16M / S SEAS UP 2.5M OVER
渤海和南部黃海=的
ELY風從11到20M / S到3.5M OVER海域
日本以南海域=
旋流風從12到16M / S SEAS可達2.0M
在泰國海灣=

CHINA: TD TRAMI 221800Z 28.0N 115.0E, moving W at 30kmh (JMA) 230813 1450z

August 20, 2013 by Goaty's News UK

TD Trami

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

(Image: JMA)

TD
Issued at 18:35 UTC, 22 August 2013


<Analyses at 22/18 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
	TD
Center position	N28°00′(28.0°)
	E115°00′(115.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure	992hPa

Extreme Dam Flood Waters Typhoon Trami

Published on August 22, 2013 by robspeta westernpacificweather

“

Westpacwx Author and Extreme Weather Videographer James Reynolds arrived at the Shimen Dam in Northern Taiwan the morning of the 22nd of August 2013. When he arrived the dam had its spill ways open and was releasing excess water from the reservoir third largest reservoir in Taiwan in a spectacular fashion. The dam that holds the lake back is also hydro plant as well as used for flood control.

Typhoon Trami dumped over 600mm of rain over the last 72 hours (verified from CWB website) over portions of Taiwan. This led to release of the access water.

The footage above includes shots of the spillway releasing flood waters, local people coming to see the flood waters taking photos etc, includes extreme close up of water blasting out of the dam near the main generator building including a short on camera standup.

The Shihmen Resevoir is one of several key reservoirs in the Tamsui River system used to cut peak flood flows during typhoon events. Dam releases are coordinated with those from Feitsui Dam to the east in order to reduce the severity of flooding. It provides water to over a million people in Northern Taiwan.”

-WxCaster PAT westernpacificweather

MARITIME

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 0330
WWCI50 BABJ 230330
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 0330UTC AUG.23 2013=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC AUG. 23=
FORECAST VALID 0600UTC AUG. 24=
WARNNING=
TS PEWA 995HPA AT 26.1N 168.8E MOVING NNW 15KM/H
AND MAX WINDS 20M/S NEAR CENTER (SEAS UP TO 4.0M)
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS 120KM AND FORECAST FOR
240000UTC AT 28.3N 167.1E 990HPA MAX WINDS 25M/S
NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S CUST 18 SEAS UP TO 2.5M
OVER EAST CHINA SEA=
SLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER
TAIWAN STRAIT=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S GUST 20 SEAS UP TO 3.5M
OVER SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND BASHI CHANNEL AND
SOUTH CHINA SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER SOUTH
PART OF BOHAI AND SOUTHEAST PART OF YELLOW SEA
AND KOREA STRAIT AND ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA WEST OF
SUMATERA AND MALACCA STRAIT AND SUNDA STRAIT=
FORECAST=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S GUST 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.5M OVER TAIWAN STRAIT AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
AND BASHI CHANNEL AND BEIBU GULF AND SOUTH CHINA
SEA=
NE WINDS FROM 7 TO 10M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER
MIDDLE PART OF YELLOW SEA=
WINDS FROM 10 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M
OVER SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA=
SLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
3.0M OVER EAST CHINA SEA=

Japanese (Translation by Google)

TD Trami

（画像：wunderground.com）ストーム中心の衛星画像（ソース画像をクリック）

（画像：wunderground.com）五日間の予報マップ（ソース画像をクリック）

気象庁

（画像：JMA）

TD
夜06時35分UTC、2013年8月22日に発行した
18分の22 UTC>で<Analyses
1:43 –
強度 –
TD
中心位置N28°00 ‘（28.0°）
E115°00 ‘（115.0°）
動きのW毎時30キロ（15カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧992hPa
エクストリームダム洪水ウォーターズ台風Trami
robspeta westernpacificweatherによって2013年8月22日に公開

”

Westpacwx著者と異常気象撮影家ジェームス·レイノルズは台湾北部で石門ダムで2013年8月22日の朝に到着した。彼が着いたときにダムはオープンその流出の方法を持っていて、壮大な方法で台湾の貯水池最大のサードリザーバから余分な水分を放出していた。湖に戻って保持しているダムはまた、水力発電所だけでなく、洪水調節のために使用されています。

台風Trami台湾の部分の上（CWBサイトから検証）最後の72時間にわたって雨が600ミリメートル以上のダンプ。これにより、アクセス水の放出につながった。

上記の映像は洪水をリリース放水路のショット、写真などを撮る洪水の水を見に来て地元の人々が含まれて、極端に立ち上がり、カメラの短い含む主発電機の建物の近くにダムから出ブラスト水のクローズアップが含まれています。

石門貯水池は台風イベント時のピーク洪水の流れを切断するために使用される淡水川システムのいくつかの主要な貯水池の一つである。ダムリリースは洪水の重症度を軽減するために東へFeitsuiダムからのものとの間で調整されています。これは、台湾北部で万人以上の人々に水を提供します。 ”

-WxCaster PAT westernpacificweather

MARITIME

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200（このウィンドウをブックマークしないでください） –

このセキュリティ情報をダウンロードするため、 “リンク（ターゲット）として保存…”マウスの右ボタンをクリックしてくださいこのリンク上

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 0330
WWCI50 BABJ 230330
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN =
NMC BEIJINGによって発行NAVAREA XI（IOR）のメッセージ
0330UTC AUG.23 2013 = AT
メッセージはEVERY 06 HOURS =更新されます
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC 8月23 =
VALID 0600UTC 8月を見込んでいます。 24 =
=をWARNNING
NNWの15KM / HをMOVING 26.1N 168.8E AT TS PEWA 995HPA
中心部に近いとMAX WINDS 20M / S（SEAS UP 4.0M TO）
30KTS WINDS OFと半径120キロとの予測
S / 25M 28.3N 167.1E 990HPA MAXのWINDS AT 240000UTC
CENTER = NEAR
概要=
UP 2.5M 12〜16M / S CUST 18 SEAS TO SEのWINDS
東シナ海= OVER
10〜16M / S SEAS TO SLY WINDS UP 2.0M以上に
台湾海峡=
10〜16M / S UP 3.5M TOガスト20 SEASをTOのSW WINDS
SEA台湾、バシー海峡東AND OVER
南シナ海=
SOUTH OVER 10KM THAN LESS HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY
渤海の一部であり、黄海から南東PART
朝鮮海峡とアンダマン海と海の西と
スマトラとマラッカ海峡ANDスンダ海峡=
FORECAST =
10〜16M / Sガスト18M / S SEAS FROM SWのWINDSまで
台湾海峡、台湾SEA EAST OVER 2.5M
バシー海峡ANDトンキン湾と南シナ海AND
SEA =
7 FROM OVER 2.0M TO 10M / S SEAS UP TO NE WINDS
黄海の中央部=
UP 2.5M 10〜12M / S SEAS TO WINDS
黄海の南部= OVER
10〜16M / Sガスト20M / S SEAS FROM SLY WINDSまで
東シナ海= OVER 3.0M

Chinese (Translation by Google)

TD潭美

（圖片：wunderground.com）風暴中心的衛星圖片（點擊圖片來源）

（圖片：wunderground.com）五天預報圖（點擊圖片源）

日本氣象廳

（圖片提供：日本氣象廳）

TD
發行於2013年8月22日，18:35 UTC
<Analyses在18分之22UTC>
秤 –
強度 –
TD
中心位置N28°00’（28.0°）
E115°00’（115.0°）
方向和速度運動W30公里每小時（15克拉）
中心氣壓992hPa
至尊大壩洪水颱風潭美
發表於2013年8月22日由robspeta westernpacificweather

“

Westpacwx作者和極端天氣攝影師詹姆斯·雷諾茲，在北台灣的石門水庫在2013年8月22日上午抵達。當他到達大壩溢出方式打開，釋放多餘的水從水庫壯觀的時尚在台灣的第三大水庫。持有湖也是大壩水力發電廠，以及用於防洪。

颱風潭美甩在過去72小時內超過600毫米的雨（CWB網站驗證）在台灣部分。這導致接入水釋放。

上面的鏡頭拍攝溢洪道釋放洪水，當地的人來拍照等看到洪水，包括極端接近了水爆破大壩附近的主發電機的建築，包括一個短的相機站立。

石門蓄液室是淡水河系統用於削減洪峰流量颱風活動期間的幾個重點水庫之一。大壩釋放那些從翡翠水庫大壩以東配合，以減少洪水的嚴重程度。它提供了水在北台灣超過一百萬人。“

-WxCaster westernpacificweather PAT

海事

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200（不要書籤窗口） –

下載本公告中，點擊鼠標右鍵“保存鏈接（目標）……”此鏈接

METAREA11 / / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA的0330
WWCI50 BABJ 230330
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN =
北京NMC發出消息：第十一NAVAREA（IOR）
AT 0330UTC 8月23日2013 =
更新消息是每06小時=
概要有效0600UTC AUG。 23 =
預測有效0600UTC AUG。 24 =
WARNNING =
TS PEWA 995HPA AT 26.1N 168.8E移動西北15KM / H
最大WINDS 20M / S中心附近（SEAS高達4.0M）
和RADIUS 30KTS風120KM及預測
240000UTC AT 28.3N 167.1E的990HPA最大WINDS 25M / S
靠近市中心=
摘要=
東南風從12到16M / S CUST 18 SEAS可達2.5M
中國近海=
SLY風10到16M / S SEAS UP 2.0M OVER
台灣海峽=
西南風10到16M / S GUST 20 SEAS可達3.5M
OVER台灣，巴士海峽和東部海域
南中國的海=
水平能見度小於10KM OVER南
黃海渤海和東南部分的一部分
朝鮮海峽和安達曼海和海城西
蘇門答臘島和馬六甲海峽，巽他海峽=
預測=
西南風10到16M / S陣風18M / S SEAS UP
對台灣海峽及台灣以東海域的2.5M
巴士海峽和北部灣及南中國
SEA =
東北風7到10M / S到2.0M OVER SEAS
黃海中部=
風速：從10到12M / S SEAS高達2.5米
OVER黃海南部=
SLY風從10到16M / S陣風20M / S SEAS UP
東亞中國海= 3.0M

Possible Typhoon Trami by the weekend near Taiwan and Okinawa – 130813 2315z

August 13, 2013 by Goaty's News UK

Related:

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM TRAMI/ MARING 201200Z 22.9N 126.8E, moving WNW at 10 knots – 200813 1345z

STS #Prapiroon (#Nina): Those on the southern coastline of #Japan should closely monitor this storm – 181012 1640Z

October 18, 2012 by Goaty's News UK

(Image: JTWC)
PRAPIROON TC Warning Graphic
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS GUAM)
Forecast Track and Uncertainty Graphic
(Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com)
Storm-Centered Satellite Image
(Click image for source)

(Image: JMA)
Japan Radar
(Click image for animation/source)

(Image: JMA)
Japan Current Warnings/Advisories
(Click image for source)

PAGASA-DOST (@dost_pagasa) Philippines

Weather Bulletin #20
TROPICAL STORM “NINA” (PRAPIROON)
ISSUED AT 10:30 PM, 17 OCTOBER 2012

TROPICAL STORM “NINA” has accelerated and is now outside the philippine area of responsibility.

Location of eye/center: At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm “NINA” was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 800 km Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes (25.4 °N, 129.3 °E).

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 85 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 100 kph.

Movement: Forecast to move North Northeast at 15 kph.

Forecast Positions: Tropical Storm “NINA” is expected to be at 940 km Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes or at 240 km East of Okinawa, Japan by tomorrow morning.

* Estimated rainfall amount is from 5 – 15 mm per hour (moderate – heavy) within the 600 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.

* With this development, this is the final bulletin for this weather disturbance.

Filipino:

TTaya ng Panahon Bulletin # 20
Tropical Storm “Nina” (PRAPIROON)
Ibinigay SA 10:30, 17 Oktubre 2012

Tropical Storm “Nina” ay pinabilis at ngayon sa labas ng Philippine area ng responsibilidad.

Lokasyon ng mata / center: sa 10:00 PM ngayon, ang sentro ng Tropical Storm “Nina” ay tinatantya batay sa data ng satellite at ibabaw sa 800 km Northeast ng Itbayat, Batanes (25.4 ° N, 129.3 ° E).

Lakas ng: Maximum napapanatiling hangin ng 85 kph malapit sa sentro at gustiness ng hanggang sa 100 kph.

Kilusan: Pagtataya upang ilipat ang Hilaga Hilagang Silangan sa 15 kph.

Pagtataya Posisyon: Tropical Storm “Nina” ay inaasahang sa 940 km Northeast ng Itbayat, Batanes o sa 240 km East ng Okinawa, Japan sa pamamagitan ng bukas ng umaga.

* Tinantyang halaga ulan mula 5 – 15 mm bawat oras (moderate – mabigat) sa loob ng 600 km sa lapad ng Tropical Storm.

* Sa pag-unlad na ito, ito ay ang huling bulletin para sa gulo ng panahon.

TS PRAPIROON (NINA) – Update #029 (Bushman’s Typhoon Blog for more detail)

for Thursday, 18 October 2012 [8:50 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (NINA) UPDATE NUMBER 029
Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday 18 Oct 2012
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday 18 Oct 2012

Tropical Storm Prapiroon (Nina) has moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it swifts past Okinawa…in the direction of the sea south of Japan…Rainbands continues to affect Okinawa and the Ryukyus.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Maria (23W) continues to move fast across the Northwest Pacific Ocean…and is likely to weaken in the next 24 hours. Its center was located about 849 km east-northeast of Chichi Jima…with winds of 85 km/hr…moving east-northeast at 31 kph. This will be the final information on TS Maria.

Residents and visitors along the southern coastline of Japan should closely monitor the development of Prapiroon (Nina).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

Japanese:

木曜日のため、2012年10月18日[8:50 PHT]
WEATHER.COM.PH/ T2K熱帯低気圧の更新

熱帯暴風雨PRAPIROON（NINA）アップデート番号029
発行：7:00 AM PHT時（23:00 GMT）木曜日2012年10月18日
次の更新：19:00 PHT（11:00 GMT）木曜日2012年10月18日
トロピカルストームPrapiroon（ニーナ）は、責任のフィリピンの領域（PAR）の外に移動したそれ沖縄過去アマツバメ…日本の海の南…レインバンドは沖縄と琉球に影響を与え続けての方向に。

一方、熱帯性低気圧マリア（23W）は、北西太平洋を横切って高速で移動し続け…そして、次の24時間で弱体化する可能性があります。その中心は約849キロ父島の東北東に位置していた…85キロ/ 31キロで東北東をhr…movingの風で。これは、TSマリアの最終的な情報となります。

住民と日本の南部の海岸線に沿って訪問者が密接にPrapiroon（ニーナ）の開発を監視する必要があります。

生きるか死ぬかの決定のためにこれを使用しないでください。このアップデートは、追加情報の提供のみを目的としています。親切に公式の警告、勧告または公報のためのあなたの国の気象機関を参照してください。

Filipino:

para sa Huwebes Oktubre 18, 2012 [08:50 PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K tropikal na bagyo UPDATE

Tropikal na bagyo PRAPIROON (Nina) i-update ang NUMBER 029
Ibinigay: 07:00 PhT (23:00 GMT) Huwebes 18 Okt 2012
Susunod na Update: 7:00 PhT (11:00 GMT) Huwebes 18 Okt 2012
Tropical Storm Prapiroon (Nina) ay lumipat ng Philippine Area ng responsibilidad (par) bilang ito mga swifts nakaraang Okinawa … sa direksyon ng dagat sa timog ng Japan … Rainbands patuloy na makakaapekto sa Okinawa at ang Ryukyus.

Samantala, ang Tropical Storm Maria (23W) ay patuloy upang ilipat mabilis sa buong Northwest Karagatang Pasipiko … at malamang na magpatabang sa susunod na 24 oras. Gitna nito ay matatagpuan tungkol sa 849 km silangan-hilagang-silangan ng Chichi Jima … sa hangin ng 85 km / hr…moving silangan-hilagang-silangan sa 31 kph. Na ito ay ang huling impormasyon sa TS Maria.

Mga residente at mga bisita sa kahabaan ng timog baybayin ng Japan ay dapat na malapit na subaybayan ang pagbuo ng Prapiroon (Nina).

Huwag gamitin ang mga ito para sa buhay o kamatayan desisyon. Ang update na ito ay inilaan para sa karagdagang mga layuning pang-impormasyon lamang. Pinapayuhang sumangguni sa iyong pambansang ahensiya ng panahon para sa mga opisyal na babala, advisories o bulletin.

Chinese:

10月18日（星期四）為2012 [8:50上午PHT]
WEATHER.COM.PH/ T2K熱帶氣旋更新

熱帶風暴派比安（NINA）更新編號029
發行：7:00 AM PHT（23:00 GMT）2012年06月1810月
下次更新時間：7:00 PM PHT（11:00 GMT）2012年10月18號（星期四）
熱帶風暴“派比安”（如心）菲律賓責任區（PAR）已經走出了過去沖繩的雨燕在日本以南海域，…雨帶繼續影響著沖繩島和琉球的方向。

同時，熱帶風暴瑪莉亞（23W）繼續迅速採取行動，在整個西北太平洋和在未來24小時內可能會削弱。它的中心位於集集硫磺島約849東部，東北，風速85公里/31公里hr…moving東北偏東。這將是最終的上TS瑪麗亞的信息。

沿南部海岸線的日本居民和遊客應密切留意事態發展，“派比安”（如心）。

不要使用這個生命或死亡的決定。此更新適用的其他信息，僅供參考。請參閱國家氣象局的官方警告，公告或公告。

(Click logo to visit westernpacificweather.com)

Robert SpetaBroadcast meteorologist for NHK World in Tokyo Japan: “Prapiroon is still packing a punch in Okinawa today where 122kph wind gust have been recorded. Meanwhile in Kyushu 78mm per hour rain has been seen on Wednesday due to a frontal area storming across mainland Japan. These two storms have created a 1, 2 punch for much of Japan resulting in flooding, traffic snarl ups and worst of all one person severely injured due to a lightning strike.

This update lets you know what to expect next as Prapiroon continues to rush North East along the East Coast of Japan.”

Japanese:

東京、日本のNHKワールドのためのロバートSpetaBroadcastの気象学者：122kph突風が記録されている場所”Prapiroonは今日でも沖縄のパンチを梱包されて一方時間の雨当たり九州78ミリメートルで日本本土を越え襲撃前面面積に起因する、水曜日に確認されています。これら二つの嵐が洪水をもたらし、日本の多くのための1,2パンチを作成しましたが、すべて一人の交通うなりアップと最悪の事態は深刻な落雷が原因で負傷した。

この更新プログラムを適用すると、Prapiroonが日本の東海岸に沿って北の東を急いでし続けて次の何を期待するのかを知ることができます。”

Chinese:

在日本東京NHK世界的羅伯特SpetaBroadcast氣象學家：“派比安仍然是包裝一拳打在沖繩今天已記錄122kph陣風。，同時每小時雨在九州78毫米的已被視為週三由於日本整個大陸的正面面積攻堅。這兩個風暴已經創建了一個1，2衝多的日本造成水浸，交通咆哮UPS和最壞的所有一人嚴重受傷，由於雷擊。

此更新可以讓你知道什麼期望下，“派比安”繼續搶沿日本東海岸的東北。“

westernpacificweather.com Western Pacific Weather (Videos)

Japan Meteorological Agency (link)

STS 1221 (PRAPIROON)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 18 October 2012


<Analyses at 18/15 UTC>
Scale	Large
Intensity	–
Center position	N30°40′(30.7°)
	E137°40′(137.7°)
Direction and speed of movement	ENE 50km/h(26kt)
Central pressure	990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more	S560km(300NM)
	N440km(240NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 045
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z — NEAR 30.3N 137.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 050 DEGREES AT 33 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 30.3N 137.0E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 32.6N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 36 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 33.6N 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
—
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 30.9N 138.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD AT
33 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN

Japanese:

WTPN31 PGTW181500
MSGID/ GENADMIN/合同台風WRNCENパールハーバーHI //
SUBJ/熱帯低気圧の警告/ /
RMKS/
1。熱帯暴風雨22W（PRAPIROON）警告NR045
NORTHWESTPACの02 ACTIVE熱帯低気圧
MAXは一分平均に基づいて、WINDSを持続
オープンウォーターで有効WIND半径のみ
—
警告位置：
181200Z— NEAR30.3N137.0E
MOVEMENT過去六時間 – 33 KTSのAT050 DEGREES
010 NM以内に正確な位置
POSITIONは、衛星によって位置センターに基づいて
PRESENT風の分布：
035 KTは、突風045 KT – MAXは、WINDSを支え
オープンウォーターで有効WIND半径のみ
温帯BECOMING
30.3N137.0E：POSITを繰り返す
—
予測：
で有効な12時間：
190000Z—32.6N144.7E
MAXの風速 – 030 KT、突風040 KT
オープンウォーターで有効WIND半径のみ
温帯BECOMING
24人事POSITへのベクトル：080゜/ 36 KTS
—
で有効な24時間：
191200Z—33.6N153.2E
020 KTは、突風030 KT – MAXは、WINDSを支え
オープンウォーターで有効WIND半径のみ
温帯
—
備考：
30.9N138.9E NEAR181500Z位置。
熱帯暴風雨22W（PRAPIROON）は、約325nmでの場所を見つけた
横須賀、日本、の南南西はで南西から北東に加速している
過去6時間以上33ノット。における最大有義波高
181200Zは13フィートです。 182100Z、190300Zおよび190900Zでの次の警告が表示されます。
のための熱帯嵐23W（MARIA）警告（WTPN32 PGTW）を参照してください
SIX-時間ごとに更新。 / /
NNNN

Chinese:

WTPN31 PGTW181500
的MSGID/ GENADMIN的/聯合颱風WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/ /
SUBJ// /熱帶氣旋警告
RMKS/
1。熱帶風暴22W（派比安）警告NR045
02 ACTIVE熱帶氣旋NORTHWESTPAC
基於一分鐘的平均最大持續風速
WIND RADII只有在開放的水有效
—
警告的位置：
的181200Z—近30.3N137.0E
運動過去六小時 – 050度33 KTS
位置精確到010海裡
中心位於衛星位置的基礎上
目前風分佈：
最大持續風速 – 035的KT，陣風045 KT
WIND RADII只有在開放的水有效
變得extratropical
模型重複POSIT：30.3N137.0E
—
預測：
12小時，VALID AT：
190000Z—32.6N144.7E
最大持續風速 – 030 KT040 KT，陣風
WIND RADII只有在開放的水有效
變得extratropical
VECTOR至24小時POSIT：080度/36 KTS
—
24小時，VALID AT：
191200Z—33.6N153.2E
最大持續風速 – 020的KT，陣風030 KT
WIND RADII只有在開放的水有效
溫帶
—
備註：
181500Z30.9N138.9E附近的位置。
熱帶風暴22W（“派比安”），位於約325 NM
西南偏南日本橫須賀，加速了東北AT
33 KNOTS在過去六個小時。極顯著的波高
181200Z為13英尺。 182100Z，190300Z和190900Z NEXT警告。
熱帶風暴23W（MARIA）的警告（WTPN32 PGTW）FOR
每六小時更新。 / /
分

Filipino:

WTPN31 PGTW 181,500
Typhoon WRNCEN ng MSGID / GENADMIN / joint Pearl Harbor HI / /
Paksa / tropikal na bagyo BABALA / /
RMKS /
1. Tropical Storm 22W (PRAPIROON) BABALA NR 045
02 ACTIVE mga tropikal na CYCLONES SA NORTHWESTPAC
MAX napapanatiling hangin BATAY SA ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII BISA MAHIGIT SA LAMANG SA OPEN WATER
—
BABALA POSITION:
Mga 181200Z — MALAPIT 30.3N 137.0E
Kilusan NAKARAANG IKAANIM HOURS – 050 DEGREES SA 33 KTS
POSITION TUMPAK SA LOOB 010 NM
POSITION BATAY SA SENTRO na matatagpuan NG SATELLITE
IPINAPAKITA pamamahagi ng WIND:
MAX ay napapanatiling ng hangin – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII BISA MAHIGIT SA LAMANG SA OPEN WATER
magiging EXTRATROPICAL
Ulitin ipagpalagay: 30.3N 137.0E
—
pagtataya:
12 oras, BISA SA:
190000Z — 32.6N 144.7E
MAX napapanatiling hangin – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII BISA MAHIGIT SA LAMANG SA OPEN WATER
magiging EXTRATROPICAL
Vector SA 24 HR ipagpalagay: 080 DEG / 36 KTS
—
24 oras, BISA SA:
191200Z — 33.6N 153.2E
MAX ay napapanatiling ng hangin – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII BISA MAHIGIT SA LAMANG SA OPEN WATER
EXTRATROPICAL
—
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION MALAPIT SA 30.9N 138.9E.
Tropical Storm 22W (PRAPIROON), na matatagpuan sa humigit-kumulang 325 NM
Timog-timog-kanluran NG Yokosuka, Japan, AY pinabilis pahilagang-silangan SA
33 buhol MAHIGIT SA NAKARAANG IKAANIM HOURS. MAXIMUM makabuluhang Wave HEIGHT SA
181200Z AY 13 FEET. SUSUNOD mga babala SA 182100Z, 190300Z AT 190900Z.
Sumangguni sa Tropical Storm 23W (Maria) babala (WTPN32 PGTW) PARA
IKAANIM-oras-oras na UPDATE. / /
NNNN

US National Weather Service GUAM * US National Taya ng Panahon Serbisyo Guam * 美國國家氣象局古阿姆集團 * 米国立測候所グアム

NO active tropical cyclones at this time

現時点では積極的な熱帯低気圧ません

WALANG aktibong tropikal cyclones sa oras na ito

在這個時候沒有活躍的熱帶氣旋
Fri, 19 Oct 2012 2:04:30 ChST

STS Jelawat (Lawin) 300912 21:45 UTC, nr N40°30′ E142°55′ moving NE at 70km/h(38kt) 985hPa (JMA) (Pilipino, 中國的, 日本人) – Updated 30 Sept 2012 2225Z

September 30, 2012 by Goaty's News UK

(Image: wunderground.com)
Five Day Forecast Map
(Click image for source)

(Image: JMA)
72hr forecast track
(Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com)
Jelawat/ Lawin Storm-Centered Satellite Image
(Click image for source)

(Image: JMA)
JAPAN RADAR
(Click image for animation/source)

(IMage: JMA)
Hokkaido (East) Radar
(Click image for animation/source)

(Image: JMA)
Hokkaido (South West) Radar
(Click image for animation/source)

(Image: JMA)
Japan – Current Warnings/Advisories
(Click image for source)

STS 1217 (JELAWAT)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 30 September 2012


<Analyses at 30/21 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N40°30′(40.5°)
	E142°55′(142.9°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 70km/h(38kt)
Central pressure	985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more	SE220km(120NM)
	NW110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more	SE560km(300NM)
	NW390km(210NM)

TS JELAWAT [LAWIN] – Update #031 (Link to Bushman’s Typhoon Blog for more detail)

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (LAWIN) UPDATE NUMBER 32
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Sun 30 September 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012) JELAWAT (LAWIN) downgraded to a Tropical Storm (Goaty: JMA still has it as a typhoon at 1350UTC) as it moves along the coast of Chubu Region…prepares to make landfall over Southern Honshu particularly Chubu and Kanto Region. Tropical Storm Conditions over Southern and Eastern Honshu will be expected through the night.

Residents and visitors along Southern & Eastern Japan should closely monitor the progress of Jelawat (Lawin).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Japanese:

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) 熱帯低気圧の更新
熱帯暴風雨 (LAWIN） JELAWAT 更新番号 32
17:00 PhT (09時 00分 GMT) 日曜日 2012 年 9 月 30 日
ソース: T2K 分析/JTWC の警告/動的モデル/SatFixes
ビュー: T2K TC 更新アーカイブ (2004年-2012) JELAWAT (LAWIN) それ以上本州南部に上陸する preapres… 中部海岸に沿ってを移動するとトロピカルストームに格下げ中部、関東地方では特に。トロピカルストーム条件上南部と東部本州夜が期待されます。

密接に住民と訪問者に沿って南＆東日本 Jelawat (Lawin) の進捗を監視する必要があります。

生命または死の決定を使わないでください。このアドバイザリは、追加の情報のみを目的としています。親切にあなたの国の公式の天気エージェンシーローカル警告・勧告・セキュリティ情報を参照してください。

==============================

http://www.disaster-report.com

24 Sept 2012:

Typhoon Jelawat kills 2 in Philippines

Typhoon Jelawat in Philippines
-Two killed and two others reported to be missing due to Typhoon “Jelawat” (local name: Lawin).
-Two fatalities are from Bogo City, Cebu and Labuan, Zamboanga City. Two others missing are from Barangay San Vicente, Sirawai, Zamboanga del Norte.
-Flooding displaced some 4,000 famailies in Zamboanga del Norte town.
-At least 800 families are now staying in churches and gymnasiums.
Related natural disaster posts:
Tropical Storm Jelawat: Red alert issued
Typhoon Kai-Tak kills six in Philippines
Philippines only natural disasters list

Filipino:

Septiyembre 24, 2012:
Typhoon Jelawat kills 2 sa Pilipinas

Typhoon Jelawat sa Pilipinas
-Dalawang pinatay at dalawang iba ay iniulat na napalampas dahil sa Typhoon “Jelawat” (lokal na pangalan: Lawin).
-Dalawang fatalities mula sa Bogo City, Cebu at Labuan, Zamboanga City. Dalawang iba nawawala mula sa Barangay San Vicente, Sirawai, Zamboanga del Norte.
-Pagbaha displaced ilang 4,000 famailies sa Zamboanga del Norte bayan.
Hindi bababa sa 800 mga pamilya na ngayon naglalagi sa simbahan at Dyimnasyum.
Kaugnay na mga post ng natural na kalamidad:
Tropical Storm Jelawat: Red alerto na ibinigay
Typhoon Kai-Tak kills anim sa Pilipinas
Pilipinas lamang listahan ng mga natural na sakuna
Chinese:

2012年9月24日：
颱風杰拉華在菲律賓殺害2

在菲律賓的颱風杰拉華
– 兩個打死，另有兩人失踪的颱風“杰拉華”（當地名稱：拉完）。
從茂物市，宿霧和納閩島三寶顏市 – 兩個人死亡。兩人失踪，北三寶顏從馬蘭聖維森特，Sirawai的之。
驅流離失所約4000 famailies在北三寶顏鎮。
至少有800個家庭現在住在教堂和健身房。
相關自然災害職位：
熱帶風暴杰拉華已發出紅色警報
颱風啟德殺死6個在菲律賓
菲律賓唯一的自然災害

29 Sept 2012:

Jelawat Heads for Mainland Japan After Slamming Okinawa (Video) http://www.weather.com/news/pacific-super-typhoon-jelawat-20120925

Japan Typhoon Leaves 65 Injured

Sixty-five people were injured in a typhoon that cut electricity to more than 331,000 homes in southern Japan, according to Japanese TV channel NHK.

More than four thousand people were evacuated from their homes near the city of Naha, capital of the Okinawa prefecture, as the typhoon, “Dzhelavat,” swarmed the region with wind gusts of up to 60 meters per second.

All flights from Naha Airport scheduled for Saturday have been canceled.

The typhoon is the 17th of the season to hit the northwest Pacific Ocean.

According to Japan’s National Meteorological Agency, the typhoon is set to hit the Japanese mainland by Sunday. – RIA Novosti

Stars & stripes reporter Dave Ornauer stationed at Okinawa: Jelawat has now begun its express bee-line run toward the Kanto Plain. Landfall is expected sometime early Sunday evening over Hamamatsu in central Honshu, with a near-direct pass over Yokota forecast for around 10 p.m. Winds should still be somewhat hairy, 58-mph sustained and 69-mph gusts at Yokota, Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camps Fuji and Zama. Yokosuka Naval Base forecasts 35- to 45-mph sustained winds and 55-mph gusts overnight Sunday into Monday.

Japanese:

日本台風負傷 65 を葉します。

65 人以上 331,000 の家日本の南部に電気をカット台風 NHK によると日本のテレビチャネルを負傷しました。

台風は、”Dzhelavat、”地域毎秒最大 60 メートルの突風に群がったよう那覇市、沖縄県の首都の近くに家から 4千人以上の人が避難しました。

土曜日に予定那覇空港からのすべてのフライトがキャンセルされました。

台風の北西太平洋をヒットするシーズン 17 日です。

日本の国立気象庁によると、台風日本本土をヒットする日曜日によって設定されます。-RIA ノーボスチ通信社

デイブ Ornauer は沖縄に駐留してスター＆ストライプの記者： Jelawat 今そのエクスプレス蜂ラインは、関東平野に向かって実行を始めています。上陸いつか日曜日夕方浜松本州中部にわたって予想される、近くの直接パス横田 22 の周り予想以上で風はまだ幾分毛深い、58 マイルの持続的かつ 69 マイル突風横田、厚木海軍飛行場、キャンプ富士、座間でする必要があります。横須賀海軍基地の予測の 35-45 mph の継続された風と 55 マイル突風日曜日月曜日に一晩します。

Powerful Typhoon affects Nagoya Aichi and causing the evacuation of 56,000 people Japan News »September 30, 2012 8:13

Jelawat The powerful typhoon made landfall on Sunday 30 September at the Japanese main island a day after reaching the island of Okinawa in the south, where local media said its wake left one person dead and over 140 injured in eight prefectures. With winds of up to 180 kilometers per hour, the typhoon number 17 of the year reached the center of Aichi Prefecture and was going up to the main island of Honshu, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. A man aged 29, was swept away by the huge waves that hit the coast of Okinawa and later confirmed his death, meanwhile, at least 140 people were injured in eight prefectures of Japan, according to NHK. Typhoon is expected to change direction towards Tokyo and arrive early Monday with torrential rains and huge waves up to 10 meters high. More than 500 flights, mainly in western Japan, were canceled on Sunday and some Shinkansen bullet train services nationwide were suspended, Kyodo reported. Local authorities have ordered more than 56,000 people and 2,000 in Nagoya in Mie, evacuate the banks of the rivers that have overflowed, while tens of thousands of people were advised to leave their homes in search of a safe haven, públicaNHK broadcaster reported. Visit Source for videos: http://www.yumeki.org/poderoso-tifon-afecta-a-aichi-y-en-nagoya-provoca-la-evacuacion-de-56000-personas/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter (Google Translation)

強力な台風に影響愛知県名古屋市と 56,000 人日本ニュースの避難を引き起こして» 2012 年 9 月 30 日 8:13

Jelawat 9 月日曜日 30、日本の主な上陸強力な台風島沖縄の地元メディアには、そのきっかけの一人の死者と負傷 8 都府県で 140 以上が言った、南に到達した後一日。風時速 180 キロまでの今年の台風番号 17 愛知県センターに達したし、本州のことが起こっていた気象庁によると。29 歳、巨大な波によって流された彼の死の後で沖縄の海岸ヒットを確認、一方、少なくとも 140 人が NHK によると日本の 8 都府県で負傷した男。台風は東京に向かって方向を変更し、月曜日早く集中豪雨の雨で到着する予定で、巨大な波の最大 10 メートルの高さ。日曜日に西日本を中心に 500 以上の便がキャンセルされた、いくつか全国新幹線鉄道サービスが中断された、共同報告。地元当局は 56,000 以上の人々と三重県の名古屋で 2,000 避難数万人の安全な避難所を求めて、家を離れることをお勧めされた中に、オーバーフローした川のほとりを命じた、públicaNHK 放送を報告しました。ソースの動画を参照してください。http://www.yumeki.org/poderoso-tifon-afecta-a-aichi-y-en-nagoya-provoca-la-evacuacion-de-56000-personas/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

At least one person killed and 140 others injured as twister with winds of up to 180 kmph hits mainland.

Powerful Typhoon Jelawat has hit the Japanese mainland, sparking the evacuation of thousands a day after it tore across the southern Okinawa island, where local media said it left one dead and some 140 injured.

Packing winds of up to 180kmph, the typhoon reached central Aichi prefecture at around 0700 local time (1000 GMT) and was moving up the main island of Honshu, the Japan Meteorological Agency said on Sunday.

The municipal government of the central city of Nagoya issued an evacuation advisory for 57,000 people living in 21,000 homes, due to the fear of flooding caused by rising river levels in the city, according to Jiji Press.

A further 11,000 were told to evacuate in the city of Ishinomaki in the country’s northeast, Jiji Press reported.

A 29-year-old man was swept away by high waves when Jelawat hit Okinawa and was later confirmed dead, while at least 140 people were injured in eight prefectures, according to public broadcaster NHK.

The typhoon is forecast to churn northeastwards towards Tokyo over the next 24 hours and bring torrential rainfall and towering waves up to 10 metres high.

The meteorological agency predicted rainfall of up to 400mm some areas in the 24 hours to Monday evening, Jiji Press said.

More than 500 flights, mainly in western Japan, were cancelled on Sunday and some shinkansen bullet train services across the country had been suspended, Kyodo said – Al Jazerra

Japanese:

強力な台風 Jelawat は沖縄の南の島全体でローカルメディアそれ左 1 死と負傷したいくつかの 140 言わを引き裂いた後 1 日数千人の避難をスパーク日本本土をヒットしています。

180 Kmph 最大の風をパッキング、台風セントラル愛知県周り 0700年の現地時間 (1000 GMT) に達して、動いていた本州の日本の気象庁は日曜日に言った。

名古屋の中心都市の自治政府諮問避難 21,000 の家庭では、市内の川の上昇によって引き起こされる洪水の恐れによる生活 57,000 人の時事通信によると発行。

さらに 11,000 は石巻市、国の北東部での避難するように言われた、時事通信社は報告しました。

Jelawat 沖縄ヒット後死んで、少なくともしばらくの間 8 都府県では、140 人が負傷したで公共放送 NHK によると確認されたとき 29 歳男高の波で流されました。

Northeastwards 東京へ 24 時間以内に解約し豪雨と 10 メートルの高さまで高くそびえる波をもたらすの予報です。

気象庁 400 mm の降雨は月曜日の夕方に 24 時間のいくつかの領域を予測、時事通信社と述べた。

日曜日に西日本を中心に 500 以上の便がキャンセルされ、全国の新幹線新幹線サービスが中断されていた、共同が言いました。

BBC News video: lifts car into air in Okinawa (link)

Check out these videos on youtube (link)

==============================

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2012 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JELAWAT (18W) currently located near 35.3 N 138.2 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Japanese:

北西太平洋: 嵐の警告発行で 30 Sep, 2012年 12時 00分 GMT

トロピカルストーム現在 35.3 N 138.2 E の近くにある JELAWAT (18 w）土地次の likelihood(s) に与えられた鉛の時間を（s）を打つと予測されています。

黄色の警告国または Province(s)

日本

猫の 1 以上の確率は現在 30 ％です。

TS の確率が 95 ％を現在です。

黄色の警告スピリットバケーションと Town(s)

静岡 (35.0 138.5 N E)

猫の 1 以上の確率は現在 15 ％です。

TS の確率が 95 ％を現在です。

東京（35.7 139.8 N E)

TS の確率が 65 ％から 12 時間以内

仙台 (38.3 140.9 N E)

TS の確率が 65 ％から 12 時間以内

いわき（37.0 140.8 N E)

TS の確率が 65 ％から 12 時間以内

宮古 (39.7 141.9 N E)

TS の確率は 55 ％から 12 時間以内

注意してください。

黄色の警告（高）は猫の 1 以上を 10 ％と 30 ％の確率または TS に 50 ％の確率の上の間。

猫 1 台風強度風の少なくとも 74 mph、119 km/h または 64 ノット 1 分持続を意味します。

TS は熱帯嵐強度風の少なくとも 39 mph、63 キロ/h または 34 ノット 1 分持続を意味します。

予測のグラフィカルな情報とさらに詳細については、http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/をご覧ください。

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 042
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z — NEAR 38.6N 140.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 030 DEGREES AT 39 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 38.6N 140.9E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 44.0N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 44 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z — 48.0N 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
—
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 40.0N 143.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTH
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS ACCELERATED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 39 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY FROM JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TS 18W IS NOW EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND ALMOST VOID OF CONVECTION AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS UNRAVELED AND BECOME RAGGED. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A COLD CORE
LOW AFTER IT EXITS HONSHU INTO THE COLD SEA OF JAPAN OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. //
NNNN

Japanese:

WTPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/共同台風 WRNCEN 真珠湾こんにちは//
SUBJ/熱帯サイクロン警告//
RMKS/
1. 熱帯嵐 18 W (JELAWAT) 警告 NR 042
02 アクティブ熱帯低気圧の NORTHWESTPAC
1 分平均に基づいて最大の継続された風
風半径オープンウォーター以上のみ有効
—
警告の位置:
301800Z—38.6N の近く 140.9E
過去 6 時間 – 39 KTS 030 度の動き
040 内に正確に位置 NM
センターの組み合わせによって位置に基づく位置
衛星、レーダー
風の分布の現状
最大の継続された風 – 040 KT, 050 風速で時々 25 KT
風半径オープンウォーター以上のみ有効
温帯低気圧になって
繰り返しを仮定する: 38.6N 140.9E
—
予測:
12 時間有効に。
010600Z—44.0N 149.3E
最大の継続された風 – 035 KT, 045 風速で時々 25 KT
風半径オープンウォーター以上のみ有効
温帯低
034 KT 風 – 055 NM 北東象限の半径
045 NM 東南象限
040 NM の南西象限
035 海里北西象限
24 HR へのベクトルを仮定: 060 DEG/44 ノット
—
24 時間有効で。
011800Z—48.0N 160.6E
最大の継続された風 – 030 KT, 040 風速で時々 25 KT
風半径オープンウォーター以上のみ有効
温帯低
—
注釈:
302100Z 位置の近く 40.0N 143.0E。
トロピカルストーム 18 W （JELAWAT）に位置し、約 105 海里南
三沢の加速している北米-北東 39 ノット
過去 6 時間以上。初期位置のベースのアニメーション
レーダー反射率の画像と気象庁から
高信頼。初期強度を近くから推定します。
表面観察。TS 18 W 今傾圧ゾーンで埋め込まれています。
ほとんどのボイドの低レベルの循環器センターとして対流
解明および不揃いになっています。冷たいコアシステムになります。
それは次に日本の冷たい海に本州を終了した後の低
いくつかの時間。これはこのシステムにジョイントの最終的な警告です。
台風 WRNCEN 真珠湾こんにちは。システムを密接に監視します。
再生の兆しを。//
NNNN

Philippines

PAGASA-DOST (@dost_pagasa)

Public Storm Warning Signals – What do they mean? Pampublikong Babala Storm signal – Ano ang ibig sabihin nila? http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/genmet/psws.html

WEATHER BULLETIN #33 (FINAL)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT: TYPHOON “LAWIN” (JELAWAT)
ISSUED AT 05:00AM, 29 SEPTEMBER 2012

Typhoon “LAWIN” has accelarated and is now out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

Location of eye/center: At 4:00 AM today, the eye of Typhoon “LAWIN” was located based on satellite and surface data at 610 km Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes (25.5°N, 126.3°E).

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 210 kph.

Movement: Forecast to move Northeast at 20 kph

Forecast Positions: Typhoon “LAWIN” is expected to be at 70 km Northeast of Okinawa, Japan this afternoon.

* Estimated rainfall amount is from 10–20 mm per hour (heavy – intense) within the 750 km diameter of the Typhoon.

* Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of Northern Luzon and eastern seaboard of Central Luzon due to big waves generated by Typhoon “LAWIN” and Southwest Monsoon.

*With this development, this is the final bulletin for this weather disturbance.

WEATHER Bulletin # 33 (Final)
Tropikal na bagyo ALERTO: Typhoon “LAWIN” (JELAWAT)
Ibinigay SA 05:00, 29 Setyembre 2012

Typhoon “LAWIN” accelarated at ngayon ng Philippine Area ng responsibilidad.

Lokasyon ng mata / center: Sa 4:00 AM ngayon, ang mga mata ng Typhoon “LAWIN” ay matatagpuan batay sa data ng satellite at ibabaw sa 610 km Northeast ng Itbayat, Batanes (25.5 ° N, 126.3 ° E).

Lakas ng: Maximum napapanatiling hangin ng 175 kph malapit sa sentro at gustiness ng hanggang sa 210 kph.

Kilusan: Pagtataya upang ilipat Northeast sa 20 kph

Pagtataya Posisyon: Typhoon “LAWIN” ay inaasahan na sa 70 km Northeast ng Okinawa, Japan na ito hapon.

* Tinantyang halaga ulan mula sa 10-20 mm bawat oras (mabigat – matinding) sa loob ng 750 km sa lapad ng Typhoon.

* Pangingisda bangka at iba pang mga maliit na seacrafts ay pinapayuhan hindi sa venture sa seaboards ng Northern Luzon at silangang nasa baybayin ng dagat ng Gitnang Luzon dahil sa daluyong na nabuo sa pamamagitan ng Typhoon “LAWIN” at Southwest Monsoon.

* Sa pag-unlad na ito, ito ay ang huling bulletin para sa gulo ng panahon.

#Sanba is now an area of low pressure nr N44°00′ E133°00′ at 0050Z – Updated 18 Sept 2012 0950Z

September 17, 2012 by Goaty's News UK

xxx

(Image: wunderground.com)
Five Day Forecast Map
(Click image for source)

(Image: JMA)
Satellite East Asia Infrared
(Click image for animation/source)

(Image: JMA)
JAPAN Currently valid Warnings/Advisories
(Click image for source)

(Image: KMA)
South Korea Radar: Real Time
(Click image for animation/source)

18 Sept 2012 This is the last update for Sanba.

“Typhoon Sanba Reaches Vladivostok, Russia – Floods city streets. Over ten streets were flooded in Vladivostok as typhoon Sanba reached the Russian Far Eastern city bringing there one third of monthly rainfalls norm. The Sanba emerged on September 10 near the shores of Philippines and before reaching Vladivostok it battered Japan and two Koreas leaving dozens of people homeless and cutting electricity power supplies. The administration of Vladivostok and the local emergencies services did not report any casualties and damages, but said that the storm caused a mudslide in the city, which temporarily disrupted a train connection between two local stations. Schools and kindergartens in Vladivostok continue working as usually, but it is up to parents to decide whether to take their children there during the storm. According to meteorologists, heavy rains will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday in the region with wind gusts reaching 23-28 meters per second.
Powerful typhoon Sanba lashed North and South Korea with strong wind and heavy rain, killing two people in landslides, leaving hundreds of others homeless and triggering blackouts in the South, officials said Tuesday. In North Korea, rain drenched parts of the country, including the eastern coastal city of Wonsan, but did not reach the capital, Pyongyang, which was windy Monday but spared the heavy rains that lashed the South Korean capital.
Sanba, which battered southern South Korea around midday Monday, pushed northward and moved into eastern waters, where it weakened and lost energy on Tuesday morning. North Korea didn’t get a direct hit but was affected by the storm’s outer bands. More than 3,700 homes and shops in South Korea remained without power Tuesday but officials were expected to restore power later in the day. A woman died in a landslide in southeastern South Korea, and a man died in a separate landslide. Two people were injured and about 560 people were left homeless.
Before reaching South Korea, the storm hit Japan. One man drowned in high waves, about 67,000 homes in southwestern Japan lost power and some areas flooded. There were no immediate official reports from North Korea on whether the storm caused any damage there. Dozens there were killed in a typhoon last month, and the country suffered flooding and drought earlier in the year.” – http://globaldisasterwatch.blogspot.co.uk

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

18 Sept 2012 No warnings

17 Sept 2012

.wtpn31 pgtw 170900
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical storm 17w (sanba) warning nr 027
downgraded from typhoon 17w
01 active tropical cyclone in northwestpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
wind radii valid over open water only
—
warning position:
170600z — near 36.0n 128.6e
movement past six hours – 010 degrees at 20 kts
position accurate to within 020 nm
position based on center located by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds – 045 kt, gusts 055 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
becoming extratropical
repeat posit: 36.0n 128.6e
—
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
171800z — 40.7n 130.0e
Max sustained winds – 030 kt, gusts 040 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
extratropical
vector to 24 hr posit: 015 deg/ 25 kts
—
24 hrs, valid at:
180600z — 45.6n 131.6e
Max sustained winds – 020 kt, gusts 030 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
extratropical
—
remarks:
170900z position near 37.2n 128.9e.
Tropical storm 17w (sanba), located approximately 10 nm northwest of
taegu, south Korea, has made landfall and accelerated
north-northeastward at 20 knots over the past six hours. The initial
position and intensity were based on animated radar imagery from the
korean meteorological agency and from surface observations from taegu
that reported maximum winds 0f 24 gusting to 40 knots at 170400z. Ts
17w is currently at the base of the taebaek mountain range and poised
to ramp up the high and very rugged terrain. Upper level analysis
indicates the system is now embedded in the baroclinic zone and
undergoing extratropical transition. It is expected to become a cold
core low after its remnants emerge back in the Sea of Japan by tau
12. The alternate scenario is that the system will dissipate over
land. The available numerical guidance is in tight agreement and
lends high confidence to this track forecast. This is the final
warning on this system by the joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi.
The system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration. //

Korean:

wtpn31 pgtw 170900
msgid/genadmin/공동 태풍 wrncen 진주 항구 안녕 / /
subj/열 대 사이 클론 경고 / /
rmks /
1. 열 대 폭풍 17w (sanba) 경고 nr 027
태풍 17w에서 다운 그레이드
northwestpac에서 01 활성 열 대 사이 클론
최대 1 분 평균을 기반으로 하는 바람을 지속
유효한 바람 반지름 이상 오픈 워터만
—
경고 위치:
170600z—36.0n 근처 128.6e
과거 6 시간-20 kts에서 010도 운동
020 내 위치 nm
위치 기반으로 위성 센터
현재 바람 분포:
최대 지속 바람-045 kt, 풍속 055 kt
유효한 바람 반지름 이상 오픈 워터만
온대 되기
반복 멋 부리 다: 36.0n 128.6e
—
예측:
12 시간에 유효한:
171800z—40.7n 130.0e
최대 지속 바람-030 kt, 풍속 040 kt
유효한 바람 반지름 이상 오픈 워터만
온대
24 시간 하는 벡터 멋 부리 다: 015 deg / 25 kts
—
24 시간에 유효한:
180600z—45.6n 131.6e
최대 지속 바람-020 kt, 풍속 030 kt
유효한 바람 반지름 이상 오픈 워터만
온대
—
설명:
37.2n 근처 170900z 위치 128.9e.
열 대 폭풍 17w (sanba)에 위치한 약 10 nm 북서쪽의
대구, 한국, 육지 접근을 만든 있으며 가속
북한-northeastward 지난 6 시간 동안 20 노트에서. 초기
위치와 강도에서 애니메이션된 레이더 이미지에 기반 했다 합니다
한국 기상 기관 및 대구에서 표면 관찰에서
그는 최대 바람 0f 24 gusting 170400z에서 40 노트를 보고. Ts
17w 현재 태백 산맥의 기본 및 태세입니다.
높고 매우 거친 지형 방면 진입로. 상위 수준 분석
시스템은 baroclinic 영역에 포함 된 지금 나타냅니다 및
온대 전환을 겪고 있다. 감기 될 예정입니다.
코어 낮은 그것의 잔재 타우에 의해 일본 해에서 다시 등장 하는 후
12. 대체 시나리오는 시스템을 통해 낭비 것입니다.
토지입니다. 사용 가능한 숫자 지침 꽉 계약에는 고
예보이 트랙에 높은 자신감을 빌려준다. 이것은 최종
경고이 시스템에 의해 공동 태풍 wrncen 진주만 안녕하세요.
중생의 징후에 대 한 시스템을 밀접 하 게 모니터링 될 것 이다. //

LOW
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 18 September 2012


<Analyses at 18/00 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
	LOW
Center position	N44°00′(44.0°)
	E133°00′(133.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 45km/h(25kt)
Central pressure	994hPa

Current Weather Conditions Kadena Air Base, Japan (Link)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Sep, 2012 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm SANBA (17W) currently located near 36.0 N 128.6 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Korean:

NW 태평양: 폭풍 경고에서 9 월 17 일, 2012 6시 GMT (최종 경고)

열 대 폭풍 SANBA (17W) 현재 36.0 128.6 N E 근처에 땅을 다음 likelihood(s) 주어진된 리드 행위가 공격 전망 이다:
노란색 경고 Country(s) 또는 조건이
대한민국
TS에 대 한 확률은 현재 90% 이다.
노란색 경고 도시 (들) 및 Town(s)
대구 (35.9 128.6 N E)
TS에 대 한 확률은 현재 90% 이다.
부산 (35.2 129.1 N E)
TS에 대 한 확률은 현재 70 %

Note는
노란색 경고 (상승)는 고양이 1 또는 위의 하 10%, 30% 확률 또는 위의 50% 확률에 TS 사이.
고양이 1 적어도 74 mph, 119 km/h 또는 64 노트 1 분 지속의 태풍 힘 바람을 의미 합니다.
TS는 적어도 39 mph, 63 km/h 또는 34 노트 1 분 지속의 열 대 폭풍 강도 바람을 의미 합니다.

그래픽 예측된 정보 및 자세한 내용은 방문 하시기 바랍니다 http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com//
Press:

Stars & Stripes

By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 15, 2012 (Times are Japan Time)

Kadena has already been feeling 25-mph winds and 41-mph gusts. Ginowan, near Camp Foster and Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, reported a 43-mph gust.

It’s bound to get worse before it gets better, folks. This is a very well-organized storm, with deep convective banding and a very well-defined eye about 29 miles wide. The eye will pass about 14 miles east of Kadena at about 5 a.m., during which time one might note that the winds and rain have ceased and the dawn coming up like thunder (although your eardrums might feel like they do when you’re on a commercial jet). Again, avoid any and all temptation to go outside. The back-side winds, in the opposite direction and likely more fierce than before, will kick in at any time.

Latest wind timeline courtesy of Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

— Sustained 35-mph winds, 8 p.m. Saturday.
— Sustained 40-mph winds, 10 p.m. Saturday.
— Sustained 58-mph winds, 2 a.m. Sunday.
— Maximum 115-mph sustained winds, 144-mph gusts, 5 a.m. Sunday.
— Winds receding below 58 mph, 2 p.m. Sunday.
— Winds receding below 40 mph, 7 p.m. Sunday.
— Winds receding below 35 mph, 9 p.m. Sunday.

Full story: http://www.stripes.com/reporters/dave-ornauer?author=Dave_Ornauer

Japanese:

キーを押します。

スター＆ストライプ

デイブ Ornauer によって

公開日: 2012 年 9 月 15 日（時間は日本時間）

嘉手納すでに 41 マイル突風と 25 マイルの風を感じています。宜野湾キャンプ・フォスターと普天間海兵隊航空近く 43 マイル突風を報告しました。

良いを取得する前に悪化するバインド、人々。これは深い対流バンドとは非常に明確に定義された目幅約 29 マイルの非常によく組織化の嵐です。目は時間の 1 つ、風と雨が停止していることに注意してくださいかもしれないと雷のような（あなたの鼓膜は、商業ジェットにいるときと同様感じるかもしれないが）来る夜明けの中に約 14 マイルについて 5、嘉手納の東を通過します。また、外に任意およびすべての誘惑を避けます。背中側は、反対の方向と可能性が以前よりもより激しい風ないつでもがキックされます。

最新のタイムライン嘉手納の 18 翼天気飛行礼儀風します。

― 持続的な 35 mph の風、20 土曜日。

― 持続的な 40 マイルの風、22 土曜日。

― 持続的な 58 マイルの風、2 日曜日。

― 持続的な最大 115 マイル、5 日曜日 144 マイル突風の風します。

-14 日曜日 58 マイル以下の後退風。

－以下 40 マイル、19 日曜日を後退風。

-21 日 35 mph 以下の後退風。

完全な話: http://www.stripes.com/reporters/dave-ornauer?author=Dave_Ornauer

16 Sept 2012:

Typhoon Sanba slams Okinawa (Reuters video 0:48) (Link)

Sa Gitna ng Bagyo (Link)

“Typhoon Sanba (Bagyong Karen) is now moving across the East China Sea and is aiming for the Korean Peninsula. Sanba was last located approximately 360km north of Okinawa or about 420km south southeast of Jeju Island in South Korea. Maximum sustained winds are at 175kph with gusts of up to 215kph making Sanba a Category 2 Typhoon. Sanba is moving northward at 30kph…….

Latest satellite image shows a slowly degrading appearance of Sanba. The eye is still well-defined though and convective activity is still relatively strong. The overall organization, however, is starting to become asymmetrical and is becoming more sheared as upper-level winds start to increase in this region. Together with the increasing wind shear, water temperatures in the East China Sea are getting colder and will lead to more weakening overnight……

For now though, rains are still impacting parts of the Ryukyu Islands including Amami. Radar from JMA showing the eastern bands from the storm impacting Kyushu Island as well with rainfall amounts of about 50mm or so. Winds of around 80kph are also still being reported in many places. However, for the most part, we expect the weather to continue improving in Okinawa and nearby areas tonight and into tomorrow.”

17 Sept 2012:

KMA forecasts 232.5 mm (9.1 inches) Rain for Bukchangwon, South Korea today

KMA 예측 232.5 m m (9.1 인치) 비 Bukchangwon, 한국에 대 한 오늘

1040 GMT/UTC @hohocho: According to YTN, Typhoon Sanba now moves out to East sea, near Gangneung, S.Korea as of 1920 KST.

YTN에 따라 태풍 Sanba 지금 이동 밖으로 동해, 강릉, 근처 1920 KST로 구

Evan Duffey, Meteorologist at AccuWeather.com
Sep 17, 2012; 5:38 AM ET

“Damaging winds, flooding rains and rough surf will continue to accompany the storm as it moves inland over South Korea on Monday. The storm should pass close enough to Kyushu to bring impacts to that Japanese island as well.

Later Monday, Sanba will likely move briefly back over the Sea of Japan before making yet another landfall in far northeastern North Korea.”

에 반 Duffey, 나눔에 기상학자

9 월 17 일, 2012; 동부 표준시 오전 5 시 38 분

“폭우와 거친 서핑 홍수 피해 바람이 계속 이동 내륙 한국에 월요일에 폭풍을 동반. 폭풍 뿐만 아니라 그 일본 섬에 영향을가지고 규슈에 충분히 가까이 전달 해야 합니다.

이후 월요일 Sanba 것입니다 가능성이 간략하게 다시 위로 이동 일본 해까지 북동부 북한에서 또 다른 상륙 하기 전에. “

Tropical Storm 16w #Bolaven/ #Julian loses tropical characteristics as it traverses North Korea and Northeastern China – Updated 310812 2130Z

August 28, 2012 by Goaty's News UK

(Image: usno.navy.mil/NOOC)
TD 16W Track
(Click image for source)

(Image JMA Japan)
Weather Warnings
(Click image for source)

TS BOLAVEN [JULIAN] – Final Update from Bushman’s Typhoon Blog

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM BOLAVEN (JULIAN) UPDATE NUMBER 008 **FINAL**
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Wed 29 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012) Tropical Storm BOLAVEN (JULIAN) loses tropical characteristics as it traverses North Korea and Northeastern China.

*This is the last and final update on Bolaven (Julian).

Chinese:

TYPHOON2000（T2K）的熱帶氣旋更新
熱帶風暴布拉萬（朱利安）更新編號008** FINAL**
5:00 AM PHT（21:00 GMT）週三2012年8月29日
資料來源：的T2K分析/ JTWC警告/動態模型/ SatFixes的的
查看：T2K TC更新檔案（2004年至2012年）熱帶風暴布拉萬（朱利安）失去，因為它穿越朝鮮和中國東北部的熱帶特徵。

布拉萬（朱利安），這是最後的，最後的更新。

不要使用這個生命或死亡的決定。諮詢的目的是為額外僅供參考。請貴國的官方氣象機構為當地的警告，公告及公告。

Korean:

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) 열대 사이클론 업데이트
열대 폭풍우 BOLAVEN (줄리안) UPDATE 번호 008 ** FINAL **
오전 5시 PhT (21:00 GMT) 화 2012년 8월 29일
출처 : T2K 분석 / JTWC 경고 / 동적 모델 / SatFixes
보기 : T2K TC 업데이트 아카이브 (2004년부터 2012년까지) 열대 폭풍 BOLAVEN (줄리안)이 그 탐색 북한과 노스 이스턴 중국과 같은 열대 특성을 잃는다.

*이 Bolaven (줄리언)에서의 마지막 업데이트입니다.

생사의 결정이를 사용하지 마십시오. 이 권고는 추가 정보 용으로 만 것입니다. 친절하게 현지 경고, 권고 및 게시판에 대한 국가의 공식 기상 기관을 참조하십시오.

Russian:

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL ОБНОВЛЕНИЯ CYCLONE
Тропический шторм Bolaven (юлианский) номер обновления 008 ** FINAL **
5:00 утра ФТ (21:00 GMT) Ср 29 августа 2012
Источники: T2K Аналитика / JTWC Предупреждения / Динамические модели / SatFixes
Вид: T2K TC обновления архивов (2004-2012) Тропический Bolaven Storm (Джулиан) теряет тропические характеристики, как она пересекает Северную Корею и Северо-Восточного Китая.

* Это последнее и окончательное обновление Bolaven (Julian).

Не используйте это на всю жизнь или смерть решение. Этот консультативный предназначен для дополнительного информационных целях. Пожалуйста, обратитесь к официальным агентством погода в вашей стране для местных предупреждений, рекомендаций и бюллетеней.

Japanese:

TYPHOON2000（T2K）熱帯低気圧の更新
熱帯暴風雨BOLAVEN（ジュリアン）アップデート番号008** FINAL**
5:00 AM PHT（21:00 GMT）2012年8月29日（水）
出典：韓国観光公社分析/ JTWC警告/動的モデル/ SatFixes
ビュー：T2K TC更新アーカイブ（2004年から2012年）の熱帯性低気圧のBOLAVEN（ジュリアン）は、それを横断する北朝鮮や中国東北部などの熱帯の特性を失ってしまう。

*これはBolaven（ジュリアン）の最後と最後の更新です。

生きるか死ぬかの決定のためにこれを使用しないでください。このアドバイザリは、追加情報の提供のみを目的としています。親切な地元の警告、勧告＆ブリテンのためにあなたの国の公式の気象機関を参照してください。

———————————————————————————————-

Historical Information (Not current)

Philippines

Weather Bull.#7(FINAL)for Typh.”Julian/Bolaven” Issued 5AM (PhT).26Aug’12:

Typh.”Julian” is now out of the PAR heading towards southern islands of Jpn. At 4AM 2dy,eye of Typh.”Julian”was located at 850km Northeast of Basco Batanes(25.1N,129.8E).Max.winds=175kph near ctr.&gust=210kph.Forecast mvmt= Northwest @15kph.TY ”Julian” is expected at 830km NNE of Basco, Batanes this afternoon.

Korean:

.. 날씨 볼 Typh에 대한 # 7 (FINAL) “율리우스 / Bolaven”5AM.26Aug ’12 발급 :. Typh “을 줄리안이”일본의 남부 섬으로 향하고 PAR의 현재 부족합니다. 에서 오전 4시 2dy, Typh의 눈. “줄리언은”Basco 바타 네스의 850km 동북 (25.1N, 129.8E)에 위치한습니다. 클릭률 (CTR) 근처 Max.winds는 = 175kph가. & 돌풍 = 210kph.Forecast mvmt = Northwest@15kph.TY “율리우스” Basco의 830km 북북동에서 예상이며, 오늘 오후 바타 네스.

Japanese:

。。天気ブルTyphの＃7（FINAL）”ユリウス/ Bolaven”5AM.26Aug’12発行：Typhを”ユリウス”がJPNの南の島に向かって、PARは絶版になっている。で4AM2dy、Typhの目。”ユリウス”はバスコバタネスの850キロ北東部（25.1N、129.8E）に位置していた。CTR近くMax.windsは=175kphは。＆突風=210kph.Forecast mvmt= Northwest@15kph.TY”ユリウス”バスコの830キロ北北東に期待されて、今日の午後はバタネス。

Chinese:

天氣通報第7（FINAL）為Typh中。“朱利安/布拉萬”發行：’12：Typh5AM.26Aug。“，朱利安”現在是南部島嶼的JPN的PAR走向。在凌晨4點2DY，Typh眼。“朱利安”位於在巴斯科巴丹（25.1N，129.8E）850公里東北。Max.winds175kph附近的點擊率。的陣風210kph.Forecast mvmt Northwest@15kph.TY“朱利安”預計在830公里東北偏北巴斯科，巴丹今天下午舉行。

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTPN32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 035
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z — NEAR 38.9N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 38.9N 124.7E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z — 43.1N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 23 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z — 46.7N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
—
REMARKS:
WTPN32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 035
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z — NEAR 38.9N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 38.9N 124.7E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z — 43.1N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 23 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z — 46.7N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
—
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 39.9N 125.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTHWEST
OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Korean:

WTPN32 PGTW 281,500
MSGID / GENADMIN / 공동 태풍 WRNCEN 진주만 HI / /
제목 / 열대 사이클론 경고 / /
RMKS /
1. 열대 폭풍우 16W (BOLAVEN) 경고 NR 035
NORTHWESTPAC IN 02 ACTIVE 열대 사이클론
MAX는 1 분 평균을 기준으로 바람을 입었
OPEN 물 위에 유효 바람 반지름 만
—
경고 위치 :
281200Z — NEAR 38.9N 124.7E
여섯 시간 직전 운동 – 18 KTS AT 360도
040 NM 범위까지 정확한 위치
위치는 위성에 위치하고 CENTER에 근거
현 바람 배포 :
045 KT, 돌풍 055 KT – MAX 바람을 입었
OPEN 물 위에 유효 바람 반지름 만
EXTRATROPICAL이되면
034 KT 바람의 RADIUS – 090 NM 북동쪽 구역
110 NM 동남 구역
110 NM 남서쪽 구역
090 NM 노스 웨스트 구역
38.9N 124.7E : 멋 부리다을 반복
—
예측 :
AT 유효 기간 12 시간 :
290000Z — 43.1N 126.7E
035 KT, 돌풍 045 KT – MAX 바람을 입었
OPEN 물 위에 유효 바람 반지름 만
EXTRATROPICAL
24 HR의 멋 부리다 벡터 : 035 내지 / 23 KTS
—
AT 유효 기간 24 HRS :
291200Z — 46.7N 130.6E
MAX 지속적인 바람 – 030 KT, 돌풍 040 KT
OPEN 물 위에 유효 바람 반지름 만
EXTRATROPICAL
—
비고 :
39.9N 125.2E NEAR 281500Z POSITION.
약 140 NM 노스 웨스트에 위치한 열대 폭풍우 16W (BOLAVEN)
서울, 한국, 있으며 18 노트 북쪽으로 추적셔서
과거 여섯 시간. 281200Z AT 최대 중요한 WAVE 높이 30
피트. 282100Z, 290300Z 및 290900Z AT NEXT 경고. 를 참조하십시오
여섯 시간당를위한 열대 폭풍우 15W (TEMBIN) 경고 (WTPN31 PGTW)
업데이트. / /
NNNN

Chinese:

WTPN32 PGTW281500
的MSGID/ GENADMIN的/聯合颱風WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/ /
SUBJ// /熱帶氣旋警告
RMKS/
1。熱帶風暴16W（布拉萬）警告NR035
02 ACTIVE熱帶氣旋NORTHWESTPAC
基於一分鐘的平均最大持續風速
WIND的RADII失效OVER OPEN WATER僅
—
警告的位置：
的281200Z—近38.9N124.7E
過去六小時的運動 – 360度18 KTS
位置精確到040 NM
中心位於衛星位置的基礎上
目前風分佈：
最大持續風速 – 045的KT，陣風055 KT
WIND的RADII失效OVER OPEN WATER僅
變得extratropical
千噸風半徑034 – 090 NM東北象限
110 NM東南象限
110 NM西南象限
090 NM西北象限
模型重複POSIT：38.9N124.7E
—
預測：
12小時，VALID AT：
290000Z—43.1N126.7E
最大持續風速 – 035的KT，陣風045 KT
WIND的RADII失效OVER OPEN WATER僅
溫帶
VECTOR至24小時POSIT：035度/ 23 KTS
—
24小時，VALID AT：
291200Z—46.7N130.6E
最大持續風速 – 030 KT040 KT，陣風
WIND的RADII失效OVER OPEN WATER僅
溫帶
—
備註：
281500Z39.9N125.2E附近的位置。
熱帶風暴16W（布拉萬），位於約140海裡，西北
首爾，韓國進行了追踪向北18節以上
過去六個小時。最大有效波高在281200Z30
腳。 282100Z，290300Z和290900Z NEXT警告。參考
熱帶風暴15W（天秤）的警告（WTPN31 PGTW）六小時的
更新//
分

Russian:

WTPN32 PGTW 281500
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN Перл-Харбор, Гавайи / /
Subj / TROPICAL ВНИМАНИЕ CYCLONE / /
RMKS /
1. Тропический шторм 16W (Bolaven) ПРЕДУПРЕЖДЕНИЕ NR 035
02 ACTIVE тропических циклонов в NORTHWESTPAC
MAX устойчивого ветра на основе одного-минут Средний
WIND РАДИУСЫ VALID по открытой воде только
—
ВНИМАНИЕ POSITION:
281200Z — NEAR 38.9N 124.7E
ДВИЖЕНИЕ последние шесть часов – 360 градусов на 18 KTS
ПОЛОЖЕНИЕ с точностью до 040 NM
Позиция, основанная на центр, расположенный на спутнике
Современное распределение WIND:
MAX устойчивого ветра – 045 тыс. тонн, порывы 055 KT
WIND РАДИУСЫ VALID по открытой воде только
СТАТЬ внетропических
РАДИУС 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM северо-восточного квадранта
110 Нм юго-восточном секторе
110 Нм SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM СЕВЕРО-ЗАПАД QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 38.9N 124.7E
—
ПРОГНОЗЫ:
12 часов, действующей на:
290000Z — 43.1N 126.7E
MAX устойчивого ветра – 035 тыс. тонн, порывы 045 KT
WIND РАДИУСЫ VALID по открытой воде только
внетропических
VECTOR до 24 часов POSIT: 035 DEG / 23 KTS
—
24 часов, действительны на:
291200Z — 46.7N 130.6E
MAX устойчивого ветра – 030 тыс. тонн, порывы 040 KT
WIND РАДИУСЫ VALID по открытой воде только
внетропических
—
ПРИМЕЧАНИЯ:
281500Z позиции вблизи 39.9N 125.2E.
Тропический шторм 16W (Bolaven), расположенный примерно в 140 Нм СЕВЕРО-ЗАПАД
Сеул, Южная Корея, ГУСЕНИЧНЫЙ на север на 18 узлов OVER
За последние шесть часов. Наибольшей значимой высоте волн на 281200Z IS 30
Ноги. Вперед предупреждений на 282100Z, 290300Z И 290900Z. СМ
Тропический шторм 15W (TEMBIN) Предупреждения (WTPN31 PGTW) в течение шести-часовой
ОБНОВЛЕНИЯ. / /
NNNN. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

—————————————————————————————————————-

Typhoon Tembin and Bolaven Update August 28, 2012

Published on Aug 28, 2012 by rpweather

**If you have any storm videos or images from Typhoon Tembin in Taiwan, please share them with us at philippineweather@yahoo.com

Video Footage from Okinawa shared to us by Dan:
Video 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7PcIuRHvDc
Video 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VbwLuBwvK4

Latest Video Update on Typhoon Tembin (Bagyong Igme) and Typhoon Bolaven (Bagyong Julian). This is a long video update so if you are only interested in one storm, our update for Tembin begins at 1:05 while our update for Bolaven begins at 6:02 Also a brief update on Tropical Storm Isaac in the United States at around 11:40

Tembin is now moving east of Taiwan and much of the heavy rains have moved offshore. It is forecast to begin weakening to a Tropical Storm tomorrow as it heads north. It will likely move within 250km east of Shanghai by Thursday morning and could eventually make landfall in North Korea by Friday morning.

Meanwhile, Typhoon Bolaven is now about to make landfall in North Korea (located WEST of Seoul) and is also starting to lose tropical characteristics. Heavy rains have paralyzed air traffic and has also caused more than 200,000 outages across South Korea. Unfortunately, the threat of heavy rains will continue for North Korea tonight and into tomorrow, with the possibility of 200mm of rain or more.

Finally, we have a brief update on Tropical Storm Isaac which could make landfall in New Orleans, LA in the next 24 hours. It is still forecast to become a hurricane before landfall and is bringing the threat of heavy rains along with storm surge.

This video is NOT OFFICIAL! Please continue checking out your country’s weather bureau for the latest official warnings and forecasts for your area.

http://www.sagitnangbagyo.blogspot.com/
http://www.westernpacificweather.com/
http://28storms.com/

email: philippineweather@yahoo.com

OFFICIAL Weather Agencies:
Philippines: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/
Japan: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/
China: http://www.cma.gov.cn/eng/
Taiwan: http://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/
South Korea: http://web.kma.go.kr/eng/index.jsp

—————————————————————————————————————–

Press:

Tropical Storm Bolaven forms, may move toward Taiwan
2012/08/20 18:49:21

A tropical depression near Guam has been upgraded into Tropical Storm Bolaven and may move toward Taiwan on a west-northwesterly track over the next few days, the Central Weather Bureau said Monday.

熱帶風暴布拉萬的形式，可能會走向臺灣

20/2012年/08 18:49:21

中央氣象局說週一關島附近的一個熱帶低氣壓已升級到熱帶風暴布拉萬，可能會在未來幾天的西西北風軌道臺灣走向。

More here from Focus Taiwan

Strong typhoon sets eye on Okinawa this weekendPosted 8/24/2012by Senior Airman Maeson L. Elleman
18th Wing Public Affairs8/24/2012 – KADENA AIR BASE, Japan — All of Okinawa is hunkering down in anticipation as Typhoon Bolaven approaches the doorstep of the small Pacific island and the Asian East coast.Bolaven, with sustained winds expected to reach roughly 120 knots (140 mph) and gusts projected to reach nearly 150 knots (roughly 170 mph), is projected to hit the island early Sunday morning.With such a potent threat inbound, Brig. Gen. Matt Molloy, 18th Wing commander, stressed that it’s paramount for the island’s inhabitants to properly prepare before the storm hits.”This is the most powerful typhoon forecast to hit the island in 13 years,” the commander said. “I can’t stress enough how dangerous Typhoon Bolaven is. Take the time today and tomorrow to secure your outdoor items and get the supplies you need to weather this storm. Tie down your outdoor items and work with your neighbors to help them – especially those whose spouses are deployed, TDY or TAD.”Friday, Kadena initiated tropical cyclone condition of readiness (TCCOR) 3, meaning winds of 50 knots or greater are anticipated within 72 hours.Though TCCORs outline an estimated time of arrival for the storm, warmer or cooler seas can speed up or slow down the cyclone unpredictably.In the mean time, Status of Forces Agreement-status personnel on the island need to use their chains of command for the most accurate information. They should also monitor the Kadena Air Base Facebook page at http://www.facebook.com/KadenaAirBase for updates as they become available.For more information on typhoon preparations, visit the typhoon section of the Okinawa Emergency Action Guide here.”This is not just another typhoon,” the general said. “If we all follow the typhoon procedures and take care of each other, we will all make it safe through this typhoon. God bless and stay safe!” – http://www.kadena.af.mil強い台風がこの週末沖縄に目を設定2012年8月24日に掲示される上級空兵Maeson L. Ellemanによって
第十八ウィング広報

2012年8月24日 – 嘉手納空軍基地、日本 – 台風Bolavenは小さな太平洋島嶼と東アジアの海岸のすぐそばに近づくと、沖縄のすべてが見越してダウンhunkeringされています。

約120ノット（毎時140マイル）と約150ノット（およそ毎時170マイル）に達すると予測突風に達すると予想風速とBolavenは、日曜日の早朝、島をヒットすると予測されています。

そのような強力な脅威インバウンド、ブリークと。大将マットモロイ、18ウイング司令官は、それが適切に嵐のヒットの前に準備するために、島の住民のために最も重要だと強調した。

“これは13年に島を襲った最も強力な台風予報です”と指揮官は語った。 “私は台風Bolavenがどれほど危険か十分に強調することはできませんあなたの屋外のアイテムを固定してから、この嵐を乗り切るために必要物資を得るために今日と明日の時間をかけてあなたのアウトドアアイテムをタイダウン、それらを助けるためにあなたの近所の人と仕事 – 。特にその配偶者が配備されたもの、またはTDY TAD”。

金曜日、嘉手納は50ノットの風を意味する以上、72時間以内に予想され、準備（TCCOR）3の熱帯低気圧の状態を開始しました。

TCCORsは嵐のために到着予定時刻を概説していますが、暖かいまたは冷たい海はスピードアップしたり予期しないサイクロンを遅くすることができます。

平均時間では、島で軍協定ステータス·人員の状況は、最も正確な情報については、コマンドの彼らのチェーンを使用する必要があります。彼らが利用可能になると、彼らはまた、更新のwww.facebook.com/ KadenaAirBaseで嘉手納基地のFacebookページを監視する必要があります。

台風の準備の詳細については、ここで沖縄緊急アクションガイドの台風のセクションをご覧ください。

“これはちょうど別の台風ではありませんが、”一般的には述べています。 “我々はすべての台風の手順に従うと、お互いの世話をする場合、我々はすべてこの台風によってそれが安全でしょう。神は祝福し、安全に滞在！” – http://www.kadena.af.mil

25 Aug 2012 1757 GMT/UTC:

This, from KBS World:

Gov’t Braces for Powerful Typhoon

Write 2012-08-24 16:49:17 Update 2012-08-24 18:28:04

The government is bracing for a powerful typhoon that is expected to affect the nation early next week.

The central disaster management headquarters on Friday held an emergency meeting with nine ministries and 16 cities and provinces to discuss preventive measures against Typhoon Bolaven.

The headquarters plans to make its best efforts to minimize damage as the powerful typhoon could bring heavy casualties and property damage.

The government plans to check regions or facilities vulnerable to landslides or collapse and ban citizens from entering dangerous areas such as embankments and rocks along the seashore.

Korean:

강력한 태풍에 대한 Gov’t 교정기

2012년 8월 24일 16시 49분 17초 업데이트 할 2012년 8월 24일 18시 28분 4초 쓰기

정부는 다음 주 초 전국에 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상된다 강력한 태풍에 대한 경구 있습니다.

금요일에 중앙 재해 관리 본부는 태풍 Bolaven에 대한 예방 조치를 논의하기 위해 아홉 부처 및 16 도시와 지역과 긴급 회의를 개최했습니다.

본사는 강력한 태풍이 많은 부상자와 재산 피해를 가져다 줄 수로 피해를 최소화하기 위해 최선의 노력을 할 계획입니다.

정부는 지역 또는 해안을 따라 제방과 바위 등 위험 지역을 입력에서 산사태 나 붕괴와 금지 시민에 취약 시설을 확인 할 계획입니다.

26 Aug 2012 1415 GMT/UTC:

Forecasters are predicting slow-moving Typhoon Bolaven could be the strongest storm to strike the island in more than 50 years.

Residents have been told to stay indoors and protect themselves against the strong winds and heavy rain.

State broadcaster NHK said gusts could overturn cars, while waves around the island could reach 12m (40ft).

Japan’s meteorological agency estimated wind speeds near the storm’s centre at around 180km/h (112 mph), while extremely strong gusts were reaching 252 km/h. – BBC News (More details here)

28 Aug 2012:

Twelve dead, 10 missing as typhoon pounds South Korea

SEOUL: Twelve people were killed and 10 were missing after a strong typhoon pounded South Korea Tuesday, uprooting trees, sinking ships and cutting power to almost 200,000 homes.By early evening Typhoon Bolaven – the strongest to hit the South for almost a decade – had moved to North Korea, which is still struggling to recover from deadly floods earlier this summer.Hundreds of flights in the South were grounded, ferry services were suspended and schools in Seoul and several other areas were closed.Bolaven left a trail of death and damage in southwestern and south-central regions of the country, although it was little felt in central parts of Seoul.Off the southern island of Jeju, the storm drove two Chinese fishing ships aground early Tuesday, sparking a dramatic rescue operation.Coastguards wearing wetsuits struggled through high waves and then used a line-launcher to fire ropes to one ship, a coastguard spokesman said. The other boat broke apart.Rescuers saved 12 people while six swam ashore, but 10 crew members are still missing, the spokesman said. Five bodies were recovered.

In the southern county of Wanju, a 48-year-old man was killed by a shipping container flipped over by gale-force winds, the public administration ministry said.

An elderly woman was crushed to death when a church spire collapsed onto her house in the southwestern city of Gwangju, while another elderly woman was blown off the roof of her home in the western county of Seocheon.

A workman fell from the roof of a hospital in the southwestern port of Mokpo. At Imsil county in North Jeolla province, a 51-year-old man died while clearing toppled trees.

In Yeongkwang county west of Gwangju, a 72-year-old man suffered fatal head injuries when his house wall collapsed. At Buyeo city in South Chungcheong province, a woman aged 75 died after falling due to strong winds.

A 77,000-tonne bulk carrier broke in two off the southeastern port of Sacheon but no casualties were reported, the public administration ministry said.

The transport ministry said all 87 sea ferry services had been halted. A total of 247 flights – 183 domestic and 64 international – have been cancelled since Monday.

The typhoon – packing winds of 144 kilometres (90 miles) per hour at one time – brought heavy rain and strong winds to southern and western areas. It toppled street lights and signs, shattered windows, uprooted trees and tore off shop signs.

The National Emergency Management Agency said 197,751 homes in Jeju and the southwest and south-central regions lost power.

A total of 83 people, mostly in the southwest, were evacuated from their homes and taken to shelters. Some 21 homes were damaged.

The US and South Korean armed forces called a temporary halt to a large-scale joint military exercise that began last week.

After sweeping up the Yellow Sea to the west of South Korea, Bolaven made landfall in North Korea in the early evening.

The impoverished nation is already struggling to recover from a devastating summer drought, followed by floods which killed 169 people, left about 400 missing and made 212,000 people homeless, according to official figures.

Weather officials said Typhoon Tembin was also threatening the Korean peninsula, and was forecast to be some 200 kilometres west of Jeju early Friday. – AFP

Korean:

열두 죽은, 10 태풍 파운드로 누락 된 한국

서울 : 열두 명 사망하고 10 배를 가라 거의 200,000 가정에 전원을 절단, 나무를 혼돈 (화) 한국을 두드리고 강한 태풍 후 누락되었습니다.

초저녁 태풍 Bolaven으로 – 거의 10 년 동안 남부를 누를 수있는 강한이 – 아직도 초기의 이번 여름 죽음의 홍수에서 회복하기 위해 고군분투 북한,로 이동했다.

남쪽의 항공편 수백은 접지 된 페리 서비스가 일시 중지되었으며, 서울과 여러 다른 지역에있는 학교는 폐쇄되었습니다.

이 작은 서울의 중심 부분에 느껴졌다하지만 Bolaven은 죽음과 남서부와 국가의 남쪽 – 중앙 지역에 피해 길을 떠났다.

제주의 남쪽 섬에서, 폭풍 극적인 구출 작전을 스파클링, 초기 화요일 2 개의 중국어 낚시 선박 좌초를 몰았다.

잠수복을 입고 Coastguards가 높은 파도를 헤치고 고생하고 한척의 배에 밧줄을 해고 라인 런처를 사용, 연안 경비대 대변인은 말했다. 다른 보트는 떨어져 졌어요.

여섯 해변 수영을하는 동안 구조 대원 12 명을 저장하지만, 10 명의 승무원이 여전히 누락, 대변인은 말했다. 다섯 구의 사체가 발견되었다.

Wanju의 남쪽 카운티에서 48 세의 남자가 강풍 – 강풍이 몰아 치는 동안 뒤집힌 배송 컨테이너에 의해 살해 된, 행정 사역했다.

다른 노인 여성이 서천의 서쪽 카운티에 그녀의 집의 지붕을 날려 동안 교회 첨탑은 광주의 남서부 도시에 그녀의 집에 무너지면서 노인 여자가 죽음에 눌린되었습니다.

노동자가 목포의 남서부 포트에있는 병원의 지붕에서 떨어졌다. 실각 나무를 삭제하는 동안 전라북도 지역에서 Imsil 카운티에서 51 세의 남자가 사망했다.

그의 집 벽이 무너질 때 광주의 Yeongkwang 카운티 서부에, 72 세 남성은 치명적인 머리 부상을 입었다. 충청남도 지역, 75 세 여성의 부여시 강한 바람으로 인해 떨어지는 후 사망했다.

77000 – 톤 벌크 캐리어 사천의 남동쪽 항구에서 두 들긴했지만 사상자가보고되지 않았습니다, 공공 행정 장관은 말했다.

교통 장관은 87 바다 페리 서비스가 중지되었습니다했다. 183 국내 및 64 국제 – – 247 항공편의 총은 월요일부터 취소되었습니다.

태풍 – 한 번에 시속 144km (90 마일)의 패킹 바람은 – 남부와 서부 지역에 많은 비와 강한 바람을 가져. 그것은 가로등과 표지판을 실각 창을 뿌리 나무를 산산조각 상점 간판을 찢고.

국가 비상 사태 관리 기관은 197,751 제주의 집과 남서쪽과 남쪽 – 중앙 지역 전원을 잃었다 고 말했다.

대부분 남서쪽 83 명 총은 집에서 대피하고 대피소로 이동했다. 일부 21 가정이 손상되었습니다.

미국과 한국 무장 세력은 지난 주 시작한 대규모 합동 군사 연습에 임시 중단을했다.

한국의 서쪽으로 황해를 강타 후, Bolaven은 이른 저녁 시간에 북한의 상륙했다.

가난한 나라는 이미 공식 집계에 따르면, 실종 400 남은 1백69명을 살해하고 212,000명이 집을 만든 홍수 뒤에 엄청난 여름 가뭄, 복구하는데 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.

날씨 관계자는 태풍 Tembin 또한 한반도를 위협했고, 금요일 일찍 제주의 서쪽 일부 200km로 예상이라고 말했다. – AFP

Japanese:

台風ポンド韓国のように不足している十二死者、10

ソウル：12人が殺害され、10は船を沈めると、およそ20万世帯への電力供給をカットする、木を根こそぎ、火曜日韓国を砲撃強い台風の後に失われていた。

夕方台風Bolavenによって – ほぼ10年のために韓国をヒットする最強は – まだ今年の夏に致命的な洪水から回復するのに苦労している北朝鮮に移動していた。

南の便の数百人が、接地されたフェリー·サービスは中断され、ソウルや他のいくつかの地域の学校は閉鎖されました。

それは少しソウルの中央部で感じたもののBolavenは、死と南西と国の南部地域では被害の跡を残した。

済州島の南の島沖で、嵐が劇的な救出作戦をスパーク、早い火曜日2つの中国漁船の座礁を運転した。

ウェットスーツを着て沿岸警備隊が高い波を通して苦労して1つの船にロープを発射するために、ラインランチャーを使用し、沿岸警備隊の広報担当者は述べた。他の船はバラバラに壊れた。

6は上陸泳いでいる間、救助者が12人を救ったが、10人の乗組員が行方不明で、広報担当者は述べた。 5体を回収した。

完州郡の南部では、48歳の男性が強風、強風によってひっくり返さ輸送用コンテナによって殺された、行政省庁は言った。

別の高齢女性が舒川郡の西部の自宅の屋根を吹き飛ばされたながら、教会の尖塔は、光州の南西部の都市で、彼女の家の上に倒れたときに高齢者の女性が圧死しました。

職人は木浦の南西ポートの病院の屋上から落ちた。倒れ木をクリアしながら、全羅北道Imsil郡で、51歳の男性が死亡した。

彼の家の壁が崩壊したときに光州のYeongkwang郡西では、72歳の男性は、致命的な頭部外傷を負った。忠清南道（チュンチョンナムド）扶余市内で、強風のために落下した後に死亡した75歳の女性で。

77000トンのバルクキャリアが泗川市の南東沖ポート2で破ったが、死傷者は報告されていない、行政省庁は言った。

国土交通省では、全87海フェリーサービスが停止されたと言いました。 183国内および国際的な64 – – 247便の合計は、月曜日以降にキャンセルされました。

台風 – 一度時速144キロ（90マイル）のパッキング風は – 南部と西部の地域に大雨と強風をもたらした。これは、街路灯や標識を倒し窓、根こそぎ木を打ち砕いたと看板をオフに引き裂いた。

消防防災庁は、197751済州の家庭と南西部と南部地域が力を失ったと述べた。

主に南西部の83人の合計は、自宅から避難し、避難所に連れて行かれた。いくつかの21の住宅が被害を受けた。

米国と韓国軍が先週始まった大規模な合同軍事演習への一時的な停止を呼びかけた。

韓国の西側に黄色の海を席巻した後、Bolavenは夕方に北朝鮮に上陸した。

貧しい国は、すでに公式の数字によると、不足している約400のままに169人が死亡し、212000人が家を失った洪水が続く壊滅的な夏の干ばつから回復するために苦労している。

気象当局は、台風Tembinも朝鮮半島を脅かしていた、と金曜日早く済州西いくつかの200キロになると予想されたと述べた。 – AFP通信

Chinese:

十二人死亡，10人失踪颱風磅韓國

首爾：12人死亡，10人失踪後搗爛韓國週二強颱風連根拔起的樹木，沉船切割近20萬戶家庭供電。

傍晚颱風布拉萬 – 最強打了近十年的南 – 已轉移到朝鮮，這是從致命的洪澇災害仍在努力恢復今年夏天。

數百名在南方的航班停飛，渡輪服務暫停，並在首爾和其他一些地區的學校被關閉。

布拉萬在西南和中南地區的國家的死亡和破壞，雖然它有點覺得在首爾中部地區留下了痕跡。

離南部的濟州島，風暴駕駛兩艘中國漁船擱淺週二早些時候，引發了戲劇性的救援行動。

，海岸警衛隊發言人說，海岸警衛隊穿著雨衣艱難地高浪線發射器，然後用火一船的繩索。其他小船解體。

獲救的12人，而6遊上岸，但10名船員仍然下落不明，該發言人說。有五具屍體。

完州南部的縣，一個48歲的男子被打死翻了一個集裝箱，大風力量風，公共管理部說。

一個老婦人被壓死時，教堂的尖頂倒在她的房子在西南部城市光州，而另一個老婦人在她家的屋頂被吹斷的舒川郡西部。

工欲善其事，下降至西南部的木浦港的一家醫院的屋頂。在全羅北道任實郡，一個51歲的男子死亡，在清理倒塌的樹木。

在Yeongkwang縣西光州，一個72歲的男子頭部遭受致命傷害時，他的房子牆壁倒塌。在忠清南道扶餘市，省，一名75歲的女子死亡後到期的強風。

一個77,000噸散貨船發生在兩關的東南部港口泗川，但沒有造成人員傷亡，公共管理部說。

交通運輸部表示，全部87個海渡輪服務已經停止。自週一以來，共有183個國內和64個國際 – 247航班 – 已取消。

颱風 – 包裝風速每小時144公里（90英里），在同一時間 – 南部和西部地區帶來大雨和強風。它推翻了路燈和標誌，玻璃被震碎，連根拔起的樹木，撕下店的招牌。

國家緊急事務管理署說，在濟州的西南，中南地區197,751家失去了動力。

一共有83人，主要集中在西南，撤離家園，並採取庇護所。大約21家被損壞。

美國和韓國軍隊的要求暫時停止了大規模的聯合軍事演習，從上週開始。

席捲黃海的韓國西部後，布拉萬在朝鮮登陸，在傍晚時分。

這個貧窮的國家已經在努力恢復毀滅性的夏天乾旱，洪水造成169人死亡，造成大約400人失踪，212,000人無家可歸，根據官方公佈的數字。

氣象官員說，颱風天秤也威脅到朝鮮半島，被預測為200公里，西距濟州早。 – AFP

Tropical Storm HAIKUI (12W): Eastern and Southeastern China should closely monitor this storm 东部和东南部中国应密切监察这场风暴 – Updated 07 Aug 2012 1600 GMT/UTC

August 7, 2012 by Goaty's News UK

(Image:wunderground.com)
Tropical Storm Haikui Tracking Map
(Click image for source)

(Image NOAA)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE
(Click image for source)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 Aug, 2012 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HAIKUI (12W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

西北太平洋：风暴警报发出在 2012 年 8 月 7 日 12:00 GMT

热带风暴县海魁 (12W) 预计将在给定的铅时间罢工土地给下面的 likelihood(s)：
黄色警报国家或 Province(s)
中国
猫 1 或以上的概率是 25%在 12 小时内
ts 的概率是 90%目前
黄色警报 City(s) 和 Town(s)
宁波 (29.7 N、 121.5 E)
ts 的概率是 90%在 12 小时内
温岭市 (28.4 N，121.4 E)
猫 1 或以上的概率是 10%在 12 小时内
ts 的概率是 90%在 12 小时内

请注意，
黄色警报 (高架) 是猫 1 或以上为 10%和 30%的概率或到概率 50%以上的 TS 之间。
猫 1 意味着至少 74 英里每小时，每小时 119 公里或 64 海里，1 分钟持续台风强度风。
TS 意味着至少 39 英里每小时，每小时 63 公里或 34 海里/小时 1 分钟持续的热带风暴强度风。

有关图形预测的信息和进一步的详细信息，请访问 http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: i.weather.com.cn)
China Radar
(Click image for source)

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON HAIKUI (12W) UPDATE NUMBER 011
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Tue 07 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012) Typhoon HAIKUI (12W) has maintained its snail-paced track towards Zhejiang Province in Southeastern China…forecast to make landfall just south of Ningbo City Wednesday afternoon.

This typhoon, although located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across the country particularly the western sections of Luzon & Visayas incl. Metro Manila. Breezy to windy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasional to continuous rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of Haikui (12W).

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) 热带气旋更新

台风县海魁 (12W) 更新号 011

5:0 下午苯妥英钠 (09:00 GMT) 星期二 2012 年 8 月 7 日

资料来源： T2K 分析/JTWC TC 警告/动态模型/SatFixes

查看: T2K TC 更新档案（2004年-2012 年) 台风县海魁 (12W) 已 … … 保持其雨声跟踪朝着中国东南部浙江省预测，使登陆宁波市南面星期三的下午。

这个台风，虽然地处外菲律宾地区的责任 (PAR)，会继续加强西南季风 (aka。Habagat），全国各地特别是西部各节的吕宋岛和幽静乡土气息，含在马尼拉。阵阵大风及大多是多云条件偶尔为连续降雨、雷暴和狂风将沿着上述领域。西、东和北菲律宾海域面临的沿海地区海洋将会是温和的粗糙。

居民和游客沿东部和东南部中国应密切监测县海魁 (12W) 的进展情况。

请不要使用此生或死的决定。这个咨询是额外的信息仅用于目的。请参阅本地警告、通报、公告贵国的官方天气机构。

Typhoon HAIKUI [12W] - Update #011

wtpn33 pgtw 071500
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical storm 12w (haikui) warning nr 020
   downgraded from typhoon 12w
   02 active tropical cyclones in northwestpac
   Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
   wind radii valid over open water only
    ---
   warning position:
   071200z --- near 28.1n 122.8e
     movement past six hours - 310 degrees at 08 kts
     position accurate to within 035 nm
     position based on center located by satellite
   present wind distribution:
   Max sustained winds - 060 kt, gusts 075 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 050 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
                            030 nm southeast quadrant
                            030 nm southwest quadrant
                            030 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 090 nm northeast quadrant
                            080 nm southeast quadrant
                            080 nm southwest quadrant
                            090 nm northwest quadrant
   repeat posit: 28.1n 122.8e
    ---
   forecasts:
   12 hrs, valid at:
   080000z --- 29.2n 121.6e
   Max sustained winds - 050 kt, gusts 065 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   vector to 24 hr posit: 315 deg/ 07 kts
    ---
   24 hrs, valid at:
   081200z --- 30.2n 120.4e
   Max sustained winds - 035 kt, gusts 045 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over land
   vector to 36 hr posit: 320 deg/ 05 kts
    ---
   36 hrs, valid at:
   090000z --- 30.9n 119.7e
   Max sustained winds - 020 kt, gusts 030 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   dissipated as a significant tropical cyclone over land
    ---
remarks:
071500z position near 28.4n 122.5e.
Tropical storm 12w (haikui), located approximately 225 nm
south-southeast of Shanghai, China, has tracked northwestward at 08
knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height at
071200z is 28 feet. Next warnings at 072100z, 080300z, 080900z and
081500z.
Refer to tropical storm 13w (thirteen) warnings (wtpn31 pgtw) for
six-hourly updates.    //

wtpn33 071500 pgtw
联合/msgid 进行/genadmin 台风 wrncen 珠港喜 / /
琉璃/热带气旋警告 / /
rmks /
1.热带风暴 12w (县海魁) 警告 nr 020
从台风 12w 降级
northwestpac 02 活跃热带气旋
最大持续风速基于一分钟平均
有效的风半径超过打开水只
---
警告的位置：
071200z---近 28.1n 122.8e
过去的六个小时 — — 08 kts 310 度的运动
位置精确到内 035 nm
基于中心通过卫星定位的位置
目前风力分布：
最大持续风速-060 kt、 阵风 075 kt
有效的风半径超过打开水只
050 kt 风-030 nm 东北象限的半径
030 nm 东南象限
030 nm 西南象限
030 nm 西北象限
034 kt 风-090 nm 东北象限的半径
080 nm 东南象限
080 nm 西南象限
090 nm 西北象限
重复存款: 28.1n 122.8e
---
预测：
12 小时，在有效：
080000z---29.2n 121.6e
最大持续风速-050 kt、 阵风 065 kt
有效的风半径超过打开水只
向量到 24 小时存款: 315 摄氏度 / 07 kts
---
24 小时，在有效：
081200z---30.2n 120.4e
最大持续风速-035 kt、 阵风 045 kt
有效的风半径超过打开水只
作为一个重要的热带气旋正在消退中的土地上
向量到 36 小时存款: 320 二甘醇 / 05 kts
---
36 小时，在有效：
090000z---30.9n 119.7e
最大持续风速-020 kt、 阵风 030 kt
有效的风半径超过打开水只
土地作为一个重要的热带气旋消散
---
备注：
071500z 位置附近 28.4n 122.5e。
热带风暴 12w (县海魁），位于约 225 nm
中国上海，西风一直在 08 跟踪西北地区
在过去的六个小时的海里。在最大波高
071200z 是 28 英尺。下一步的警告，在 072100z、 080300z、 080900z 和
081500z。
热带风暴 13w （十三） 警告 （wtpn31 pgtw） 的请参阅
六小时更新。//

#NorthKorea #flooding from #Khanun leaves 88 dead, 134 injured – Published 28 July 2012 1743 GMT/UTC

July 16, 2012 by Goaty's News UK

(Image: wunderground.com)
TD 08W now TS Khanun
(Click image for source)

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

Tropical Depression 08W is now Tropical Storm Khanun, continues to intensify while moving WNW across the NW Pacific Ocean.

Residents and visitors along Ryukyu & Okinawa Islands and Kyushu, Japan should closely monitor the progress of this storm.

TD 08W [Now Tropical Storm Khanun] – Update #002 thenhbushmantyphoon.blogspot.co.uk 2 July 2012

Tropical Depression 08W is now Tropical Storm Khanun (08W) – westernpacificweather.com

Update 28 July 2012:

North Korea flooding from Khanun leaves 88 dead, 134 injured

(Image: NOAA)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE
(Click image for source)

wtpn31 pgtw 160900
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical depression 08w (eight) warning nr 004
   01 active tropical cyclone in northwestpac
   Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
   wind radii valid over open water only
    ---
   warning position:
   160600z --- near 24.2n 136.1e
     movement past six hours - 305 degrees at 16 kts
     position accurate to within 040 nm
     position based on center located by satellite
   present wind distribution:
   Max sustained winds - 030 kt, gusts 040 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   repeat posit: 24.2n 136.1e
    ---
   forecasts:
   12 hrs, valid at:
   161800z --- 25.7n 132.9e
   Max sustained winds - 035 kt, gusts 045 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   vector to 24 hr posit: 310 deg/ 16 kts
    ---
   24 hrs, valid at:
   170600z --- 27.6n 130.1e
   Max sustained winds - 040 kt, gusts 050 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 034 kt winds - 060 nm northeast quadrant
                            055 nm southeast quadrant
                            055 nm southwest quadrant
                            060 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 36 hr posit: 330 deg/ 17 kts
    ---
   36 hrs, valid at:
   171800z --- 30.4n 128.1e
   Max sustained winds - 040 kt, gusts 050 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 034 kt winds - 060 nm northeast quadrant
                            055 nm southeast quadrant
                            055 nm southwest quadrant
                            060 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 48 hr posit: 350 deg/ 17 kts
    ---
   extended outlook:
   48 hrs, valid at:
   180600z --- 33.8n 127.3e
   Max sustained winds - 035 kt, gusts 045 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   vector to 72 hr posit: 010 deg/ 18 kts
    ---
   72 hrs, valid at:
   190600z --- 40.8n 128.9e
   Max sustained winds - 020 kt, gusts 030 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   dissipated as a significant tropical cyclone over land
    ---
remarks:
160900z position near 24.6n 135.3e. Tropical depression 08w, located approximately 475 nm east- southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa, has tracked northwestward at 16 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height at 160600z is 10 feet. Next warnings at 161500z, 162100z, 170300z and 170900z.//