Pacific Ocean/ Japan/ Taiwan/ China: Typhoon Dujuan (21W) 25/2100Z near 20.5N 130.7E, moving NNW 7 knots (JTWC) – Updated 25 Sept 2015 2053z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Dujuan (21W)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Ishigakijima, Okinawa, Japan, Taiwan and China beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 25 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1521-00 25

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

TY 1521 (DUJUAN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 25 September 2015

<Analyses at 25/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N19°55′(19.9°)
E131°20′(131.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°05′(22.1°)
E129°05′(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°20′(23.3°)
E126°35′(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°00′(25.0°)
E122°50′(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 21W (Dujuan) Warning #17
Issued at 25/2100Z

wp2115 25

21W_250532sams

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251800Z — NEAR 20.2N 131.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 131.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 21.3N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 22.0N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 22.5N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 23.1N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z — 24.6N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 26.1N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 27.6N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 130.7E.
TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 417 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND
262100Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

Other Reports

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 25 Sep, 2015 18:00 GMT

Typhoon DUJUAN (21W) currently located near 20.2 N 131.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201521W 25A

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

15092603

WWJP25 RJTD 251800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 142E 42N 140E
44N 145E 51N 157E 60N 163E 60N 180E 38N 180E 40N 160E 40N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 39N 137E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 34N 146E EAST 20 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 52N 167E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 994 HPA AT 44N 170E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 14N 147E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 48N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 26N 162E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 132E TO 32N 135E 33N 141E 34N 146E 34N 150E
31N 153E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1521 DUJUAN (1521) 970 HPA AT 20.1N 131.0E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0900

WTJP21 RJTD 251800
WARNING 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1521 DUJUAN (1521) 970 HPA
AT 20.1N 131.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 22.1N 128.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 23.2N 125.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 24.6N 121.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

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Japan: Severe Tropical Storm Krovanh 161500Z 20.1N 146.0E, moving NW at 09 knots (JMA) – Published 16 Sept 2015 1616Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Krovanh

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 20 FEET (JTWC)

Tropical Storm Krovanh

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

Tropical Storm Krovanh

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1520

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

STS 1520 (KROVANH)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 16 September 2015

<Analyses at 16/15 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N20°05′(20.1°)
E146°00′(146.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 17/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°20′(21.3°)
E144°30′(144.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 17/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°35′(22.6°)
E143°20′(143.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 18/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°35′(25.6°)
E143°20′(143.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 19/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N29°05′(29.1°)
E145°05′(145.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area ALL520km(280NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2015.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/20W_161132sair.jpg

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
161200Z — NEAR 20.0N 146.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 146.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 21.2N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 22.5N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 24.2N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 25.9N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 29.4N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 33.1N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 36.9N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 145.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 386 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 161200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 51N 157E
55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 30N 180E 30N 160E 36N 151E 40N 151E 42N
143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 31N 132E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 46N 150E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 42N 172E ENE SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 08N 167E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 37N 120E ESE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 42N 135E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 38N 145E ESE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 62N 153E ESE 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N 123E TO 28N 126E 30N 129E 30N 131E 31N 132E
32N 137E 33N 143E 32N 150E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1520 KROVANH (1520) 980 HPA AT 19.9N 146.4E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 RJTD 161500
WARNING 161500.
WARNING VALID 171500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1520 KROVANH (1520) 980 HPA
AT 20.1N 146.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170300UTC AT 21.3N 144.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171500UTC AT 22.6N 143.3E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Severe Tropical Storm 1517 Kilo downgraded to LOW: 11/1200Z 43N 148E, moving N 25 knots (JMA) – Published 11 Sept 2015 1905z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Kilo

….downgraded to Low Pressure Area (LOW or LPA) (JMA)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1517-00

JPwarn

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

LOW
Issued at 12:35 UTC, 11 September 2015

<Analyses at 11/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
LOW
Center position N43°00′(43.0°)
E148°00′(148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 45km/h(25kt)
Central pressure 980hPa

TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2015 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm KILO (03C) currently located near 38.5 N 147.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 111200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW FORMER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1517 KILO (1517) 980 HPA
AT 43N 148E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 148E TO 43N 153E 38N 157E.
COLD FRONT FROM 43N 148E TO 40N 151E 38N 149E 36N 142E.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
200 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 49N 150E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 54N 153E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 141E 40N 142E
42N 142E 42N 143E 51N 157E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 45N 180E 40N
170E 37N 156E 37N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 45N 138E NE 10 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 41N 138E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 15N 115E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 17N 165E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 45N 167E SE 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N 115E TO 33N 121E 36N 126E 36N 129E 36N
132E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/ Japan: Severe Tropical Storm Etau (18W) 08/1500Z 32.1N 138.2E, moving N at 19 Knots (JMA) – Updated 08 Sept 2015 1518Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Etau (1518, 18W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 15 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1518-00 8

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

STS 1518 (ETAU)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 8 September 2015

<Analyses at 08/15 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N32°05′(32.1°)
E138°10′(138.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE330km(180NM)
SW170km(90NM)
<Estimate for 08/16 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N32°25′(32.4°)
E138°10′(138.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE330km(180NM)
SW170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 08/21 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N33°50′(33.8°)
E137°40′(137.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area NE130km(70NM)
SW90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 09/03 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°25′(35.4°)
E136°35′(136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 09/09 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N36°35′(36.6°)
E135°25′(135.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 120km(65NM)
<Forecast for 09/15 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N37°40′(37.7°)
E134°20′(134.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 18W (Etau) Warning #08
Issued at 08/1500Z

wp1815

WTPN32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (ETAU) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 31.2N 138.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.2N 138.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 34.8N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 37.4N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 38.3N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 39.9N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 32.1N 138.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (ETAU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 256 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 03C (KILO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Sep, 2015 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ETAU (18W) currently located near 31.2 N 138.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201518W

OTHER REPORTS

Around 73,000 people were instructed to evacuate their homes in Hamamatsu, Shizuoka Prefecture, on Tuesday as an approaching typhoon brought heavy rain to the area in central Japan.

Typhoon Etau is located south of the Japanese archipelago and moving north. It is likely to come close to Japan on Wednesday morning and possibly make landfall, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. The agency has already issued heavy rain warnings for parts of Tokyo, Kanagawa, Shizuoka and Aichi prefectures, and is alerting people to severe rain over a swath of the country from Tokyo and its surrounding region to the main island of Kyushu in southwestern Japan. If the typhoon moves northward on its projected course, it may make landfall on the Kii Peninsula at some point. At 12 p.m., the typhoon was located about 430 kilometers west-northwest of Chichijima Island in the Ogasawara island chain, moving north at a speed of 25 km per hour. The storm was packing winds of up to 126 kph with an atmospheric pressure of 990 hectopascals at its center. In Hamamatsu, some homes appear to have been flooded because of the rain, according to the municipal government. Some roads have also been closed to traffic due to flooding.

Tuesday, 08 September, 2015 at 11:07 (11:07 AM) UTC RSOE

BBC Japan hit by severe flooding and landslides – 10 Sept 2015 (GMT/UTC)

Widespread flooding and landslides in north-east Japan have forced more than 90,000 people to abandon their homes.

The city of Joso, north of the capital, Tokyo, was hit by a wall of water after the Kinugawa River burst its banks. Helicopter rescue teams have been plucking people from rooftops.

One person has been reported missing in the region and at least 12 are injured.

The rains come a day after Typhoon Etau brought winds of up to 125km/h (78mph) to central Aichi prefecture.

“This is a scale of downpour that we have not experienced before. Grave danger could be imminent,” the chief forecaster at the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Takuya Deshimaru, told an emergency press conference earlier on Thursday.

The hardest-hit areas have been Ibaraki and Tochigi prefectures. Japan’s Meteorological Agency had put both regions on its highest level of alert.

Television footage from Joso in Ibaraki showed people clinging to the rooftops before helicopter rescue teams winched them to safety.

Entire homes and cars were carried away on the torrent as the Kinugawa River burst its banks after two days of heavy rainfall.

In Tochigi, more than 500mm (19 inches) of rain fell in 24 hours in places, according to local public broadcaster NHK, which said that was about double what normally falls there throughout the whole of September.

Parts of central Tochigi have seen almost 60cm of rain since Monday evening, breaking records.

Many other areas of eastern and north-eastern Japan have also been issued weather warnings, including Fukushima prefecture, home to the still-damaged nuclear plant hit in 2011’s earthquake and tsunami.

The downpour overwhelmed the site’s drainage pumps, a spokesman for operator Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco) said. Huge volumes of water, used to cool the plant’s crippled reactors, are being stored at the site.

Landslides and flooding

The Fire and Disaster Management Agency said 15 people had been injured across Japan. Two were elderly women seriously injured after being knocked over by strong winds.

Local media reported one person missing after a landslide hit a house in Kanuma, Tochigi prefecture.

Some areas had power cuts and transport was disrupted, with many air and train services cancelled or delayed. Some roads were also closed.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the authorities were doing their best.

“The government will stand united and do its best to deal with the disaster… by putting its highest priority on people’s lives,” he told reporters.

Last month, powerful Typhoon Goni hit Japan’s southernmost main island of Kyushu, killing at least one person and injuring 70 others.

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MARITIME/ SHIPPING

15090821

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 081500

WTJP32 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1518 ETAU (1518) 985 HPA
AT 32.1N 138.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 19 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 35.4N 136.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 37.7N 134.3E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/ Japan: Typhoon Kilo 03C 072100Z POSITION nr 25.9N 160.8E, WNW at 12 knots (JTWC) – Published 07 Sept 2015 2055z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Kilo 1517 03C

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 30 FEET (JTWC)

Typhoon Kilo

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

Typhoon Kilo

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1517

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

TY 1517 (KILO)
Issued at 19:05 UTC, 7 September 2015
<Analyses at 07/18 UTC>
Scale –
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°35′(25.6°)
E162°05′(162.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more N190km(100NM)
S130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N560km(300NM)
S330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 08/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°35′(26.6°)
E159°05′(159.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area N310km(170NM)
S240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°55′(27.9°)
E155°55′(155.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°20′(31.3°)
E151°00′(151.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N35°25′(35.4°)
E148°50′(148.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)

Unit:

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/cp0315.gif

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 073
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071800Z — NEAR 25.6N 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 161.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 26.6N 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 27.9N 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 29.4N 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 31.4N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 35.9N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 19 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 43.2N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 160.8E.
TYPHOON 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1265 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (ETAU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1517 KILO (1517) 955 HPA
AT 25.6N 162.1E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 26.6N 159.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 27.9N 155.9E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 31.3N 151.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 35.4N 148.8E WITH 210 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Kyushu/ Japan/ South Korea: Typhoon Goni (16W) 24/1500Z 30.5N 129.5E, moving NNE at 20 knots (JMA) – Updated 24 Aug 2015 1725Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Goni / Ineng 16W

( = CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 40 FEET- JTWC

Okinawa, Kyushu, JAPAN BEWARE!!

 Taiwan, South Korea, North Korea, Russia & China be aware!

Landfall over Kyushu is expected close to midnight tonight UK time (2300 GMT/UTC)

– UK Met Office

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1515-00 24 1600z
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15082421

CLICK IMAGE FOR LATEST WARNINGS

CLICK IMAGE FOR LATEST WARNINGS

TY 1515 (GONI)
Issued at 16:45 UTC, 24 August 2015

<Analyses at 24/16 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N30°50′(30.8°)
E129°35′(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE170km(90NM)
NW90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL460km(250NM)
<Estimate for 24/17 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N31°05′(31.1°)
E129°50′(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE170km(90NM)
NW90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL460km(250NM)
<Forecast for 24/21 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N32°25′(32.4°)
E130°20′(130.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area SE200km(110NM)
NW140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 25/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N34°35′(34.6°)
E131°00′(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area SE220km(120NM)
NW170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 25/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N35°50′(35.8°)
E131°25′(131.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area SE240km(130NM)
NW190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 25/15 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N36°55′(36.9°)
E131°35′(131.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area SE240km(130NM)
NW200km(110NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 16W (Goni) Warning #43
Issued at 24/1500Z

wp1615 24

wp16152409

16W_241132sair

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 043
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
241200Z — NEAR 29.6N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 035 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.6N 128.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 33.1N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 36.2N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 38.9N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 16 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 42.0N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 30.5N 129.2E.
TYPHOON 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 40
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Prognostic Reasoning

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Aug, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon GONI (16W) currently located near 29.6 N 128.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201516W 24

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

Typhoon Goni set for landfall over Japan – UK Met Office

24 August 2015 – The very active typhoon season in the Pacific Ocean has continued with intense typhoons Goni and Atsani tracking across the ocean during the last week

Whilst Atsani has stayed out at sea, Goni moved very close to the northern tip of the Philippines before making a sharp turn northwards. The typhoon then passed close to Taiwan before starting to move across the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. On Sunday the eye of Typhoon Goni passed over the island of Ishigaki with wind gusts of over 150 mph being recorded.

Goni is still a powerful typhoon as it accelerates north-eastwards towards south-western parts of mainland Japan. Landfall over Kyushu is expected close to midnight tonight UK time (2300 GMT/UTC) . Wind speeds in excess of 100 mph and heavy rain is expected bringing the risk of structural damage, damaging waves, flooding and landslides.

Typhoons Goni and Atsani on 20 August 2015. Image courtesy of The National Institute of Informatics

Typhoons Goni and Atsani on 20 August 2015. Image courtesy of The National Institute of Informatics 

The latest typhoons are part of an extremely active season for tropical cyclones across the whole Pacific Ocean brought about by the developing strong El Niño. In total there have been 28 tropical storms across the northern Pacific this year which includes 18 typhoons or hurricanes (different names for the same features in the west and east Pacific). 13 of the typhoons or hurricanes have been strong enough to be classified as ‘major’ on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Meanwhile the Atlantic has been relatively quiet with just four tropical cyclones so far this season. However, in the last few days Danny became the first hurricane of the season and, despite being downgraded to a tropical storm, is bringing windy and wet conditions to the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean.

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific are produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via on Twitter.

Last updated: 24 August 2015

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 241500

WTJP31 RJTD 241500
WARNING 241500.
WARNING VALID 251500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1515 GONI (1515) 940 HPA
AT 30.5N 129.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 34.6N 131.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 36.9N 131.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY..=

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

TAIWAN/ CHINA: Typhoon Soudelor (13W) 081500Z POSITION near 24.9N 118.9E, moving NW at 08 knots (JTWC) – Updated 080815 1506Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Soudelor (13W)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 26 FEET (JTWC)

TAIWAN AND CHINA BEWARE!

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

Japan Meteorological agency

1513-00 8
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15080821

TY 1513 (SOUDELOR)
Issued at 13:00 UTC, 8 August 2015

<Analyses at 08/12 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N24°55′(24.9°)
E119°30′(119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E650km(350NM)
W500km(270NM)
<Forecast for 09/00 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N26°20′(26.3°)
E117°35′(117.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area NE220km(120NM)
SW190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 09/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27°55′(27.9°)
E116°35′(116.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N30°50′(30.8°)
E116°00′(116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

CWB Taiwan

CWB TAIWAN (Click here)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 13W (Soudelor) Warning #38
Issued at 08/1500Z

wp1315 8

13W_081132sair

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 038
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 24.6N 119.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 119.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 25.9N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 27.6N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 118.9E.
TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Aug, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon SOUDELOR (13W) currently located near 24.6 N 119.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Ganzhou (25.7 N, 115.0 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201513W 8

News Reports

Tropical Storm in Mariana Islands

President Barack Obama has declared the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands a disaster area and is ordering federal aid to help the U.S. territory in the aftermath of a destructive typhoon. The White House on Thursday announced the disaster declaration for Typhoon Soudelor, which destroyed homes, toppled trees and snapped utility poles over the weekend on the 48-square-mile island of Saipan. Damage surveys were ongoing, but the commonwealth remained without electricity and running water, and residents were rationing fuel. Most major roadways have been cleared of uprooted trees and debris, Saipan resident Glen Hunter said. “The morning after the typhoon, you could not get anywhere because of the power poles … and trees that fell on the ground,” lifelong Saipan resident Lucy Selepeo said. “The tin houses, practically everything just flew away. The only thing you can see from the houses are the foundations.” Selepeo said concrete homes that withstood the winds, like hers, are flooded. More than 500 people on Saipan were in shelters, according to the Red Cross. Officials distributed water at various stations across the island. Still, signs of aid remained scarce going into the fifth day after the storm, Selepeo said. “I encountered a family of eight who slept on the beach in their car because their home flew away,” she said. About 50,000 people live on the commonwealth’s four populated islands, with most residing on Saipan, which took the brunt of the storm. Nearby Tinian got some damage, while Rota was spared, said Gregorio Kilili Camcacho Sablan, the commonwealth’s delegate to U.S. Congress. As for Pagan, “No idea,” he said. “I have no way to contact Pagan.” Ten generators were being shipped from Guam to power water pumps in Saipan, but the harbor was closed Thursday because of a listing boat that was half underwater, Sablan said. Restoring power could take a month or two, he said. “I haven’t seen a storm like this in 20 years,” Sablan said. “Unfortunately, the resources we have are hardly enough to get things up.” Wind speeds during the storm were between 100 mph and 120 mph. In an area that’s used to typhoons, Sablan said he and others were expecting it to pass with maybe 80 mph winds. That there were no reports of deaths or serious injury “seems almost impossible,” Hunter said. There initially was a $20-per-vehicle limit on buying gasoline, which meant motorists could get only about four gallons, Hunter said. Some easily burned through that amount while waiting in long lines at the pumps. On Thursday, the limit increased to $50, Sablan said. Gov. Eloy Inos was on vacation visiting his children on the U.S. mainland. “He’s doing everything he can to come back home. … He’s very anxious,” Sablan said. Despite the desperate conditions, residents were hopeful.

“There is nowhere to go but up from here,” Selepeo said. “We’re optimistic. We will recover.”
Saturday, 08 August, 2015 at 04:39 (04:39 AM) UTC RSOE

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

seawarn 8

Marine Warnings: SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA

23:35 JST 08/08/2015

OKINAWA WX
082100JST ISSUED AT 082335JST

STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA SOUTH OF
OKINAWA

TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970HPA AT 24.9N 119.5E MOVING NNW 09KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150NM NE SIDE AND 100NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350NM EAST SIDE AND 270NM ELSEWHERE
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900JST AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 55KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100JST AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 45KT NEAR CENTER

IN SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE-LY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

IN SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100JST AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION

WARNING VALID 092100JST

Marine Warnings: SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA

23:35 JST 08/08/2015

OKINAWA WX
082100JST ISSUED AT 082335JST

STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA SOUTH OF
OKINAWA

TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970HPA AT 24.9N 119.5E MOVING NNW 09KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150NM NE SIDE AND 100NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350NM EAST SIDE AND 270NM ELSEWHERE
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900JST AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 55KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100JST AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 45KT NEAR CENTER

IN SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE-LY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

IN SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100JST AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION

WARNING VALID 092100JST

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN /081200

WTJP21 RJTD 081200
WARNING 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970 HPA
AT 24.9N 119.5E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Minamidaitōjima/ Okinawa/ AmamiŌshima/ Japan/ South Korea: Typhoon Halola (01C) 24/1500Z position near 25.3N 130.6E, moving W at 07 knots (JTWC) – Updated 240715 1508z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Halola (01C)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Minamidaitōjima, Amami Ōshima, Okinawa,  Japan Mainland and South Korea BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 23 FEET (JTWC)

Note: There are differences between forecast agencies

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1512-00 24
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15072415 24

TY 1512 (HALOLA)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 24 July 2015

<Analyses at 24/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°00′(25.0°)
E131°05′(131.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Estimate for 24/13 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°00′(25.0°)
E131°00′(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 24/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°30′(25.5°)
E130°25′(130.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 50km(25NM)
Storm warning area ALL120km(65NM)
<Forecast for 25/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°10′(26.2°)
E129°35′(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 25/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°05′(27.1°)
E128°55′(128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 110km(60NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 25/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°10′(28.2°)
E128°25′(128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
CURRENT WARNINGS - Click image for more detail

CURRENT WARNINGS – Click image for more detail

Korea Meteorological Administration

Typhoon

No.12 HALOLA

Issued at(KST) : 2015.07.24. 22:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2015.07.24. 12:00 Analysis 24.9 131.0 970 35 126 240
(SW 200)
Strong Small W 14
2015.07.25. 00:00 Forecast 26.4 129.6 975 32 115 240
(WSW 200)
Normal Small NW 18 60
2015.07.25. 12:00 Forecast 28.6 128.2 980 29 104 220
(W 180)
Normal Small NNW 24 140
2015.07.26. 00:00 Forecast 31.4 127.6 985 27 97 200
(WNW 170)
Normal Small NNW 26 185
2015.07.26. 12:00 Forecast 34.1 128.6 990 24 86 180
(WNW 100)
Weak Small NNE 26 230
2015.07.27. 00:00 Forecast 36.5 130.9 996 20 72 130
(NW 70)
Weak Small NE 28 275
2015.07.27. 12:00 Forecast 37.9 134.7 1002 ENE 31

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 01C (Halola) Warning #58
Issued at 24/1500Z

cp0115 24a

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 24/0900Z

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 24/0900Z

01C_241132sair 24

WTPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA) WARNING NR 058
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
241200Z — NEAR 25.0N 131.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 131.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 26.2N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 28.3N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 31.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 17 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 34.3N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 38.3N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 130.6E.
TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Jul, 2015 12:00 GMT

Hurricane HALOLA (01C) currently located near 25.0 N 131.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Storm Tracker Map
Hurricane HALOLA: Storm-centered zoom at 24 hours lead (Image TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

CLICK IMAGE FOR MORE DETAIL

CLICK IMAGE FOR MORE DETAIL

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 241200

WTJP21 RJTD 241200
WARNING 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512) 965 HPA
AT 25.0N 131.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 26.2N 129.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 28.2N 128.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 33.9N 128.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 37.6N 134.0E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Marine Warnings: SEA AROUND AMAMI
23:35 JST 07/24/2015

KAGOSHIMA WX
242100JST ISSUED AT 242335JST

TYPHOON WARNING FOR SEA AROUND AMAMI
GALE WARNING FOR SEA OFF KAGOSHIMA

TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512) 965HPA AT 25.0N 131.1E MOVING WNW 07KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40NM
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120NM
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900JST AT 26.2N 129.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100JST AT 28.2N 128.4E WITH 70NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER

IN SEA AROUND AMAMI
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 30KT AND SE-LY TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH MAX 75KT FOR NEXT 18 HOURS

IN SEA OFF KAGOSHIMA
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MAX 35KT FOR NEXT 24 HOURS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100JST AT 33.9N 128.0E WITH 140NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 50KT

WARNING VALID 252100JST

Marine Warnings: SEA EAST OF OKINAWA
23:35 JST 07/24/2015

OKINAWA WX
242100JST ISSUED AT 242335JST

TYPHOON WARNING FOR SEA EAST OF OKINAWA
STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
GALE WARNING FOR SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA

TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512) 965HPA AT 25.0N 131.1E MOVING WNW 07KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40NM
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120NM
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900JST AT 26.2N 129.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100JST AT 28.2N 128.4E WITH 70NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER

IN SEA EAST OF OKINAWA
EASTERLY TO SE-LY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 70KT

IN SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
NW-LY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MAX 55KT FOR NEXT 18 HOURS

IN SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA
NW-LY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MAX 45KT FOR NEXT 18 HOURS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100JST AT 33.9N 128.0E WITH 140NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 50KT

WARNING VALID 252100JST

Other warnings at METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Tropical Depression Nangka (11W) 17/2100z position nr 38.1N 135.8E., moving NNE at 09 knots (JTWC) – Published 170715 2200z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Nangka (11W)

 Maximum significant wave height
at 171800z is 12 feet (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1511-00 17

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15071803

TD
Issued at 18:40 UTC, 17 July 2015

<Analyses at 17/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N37°00′(37.0°)
E136°00′(136.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wtpn33 pgtw 172100
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical depression 11w (Nangka) warning nr 058
downgraded from tropical storm 11w
02 active tropical cyclones in northwestpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
wind radii valid over open water only

warning position:
171800z — near 37.6n 135.2e
movement past six hours – 030 degrees at 09 kts
position accurate to within 060 nm
position based on center located by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds – 030 kt, gusts 040 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
repeat posit: 37.6n 135.2e

forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
180600z — 39.5n 137.7e
Max sustained winds – 030 kt, gusts 040 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
vector to 24 hr posit: 055 deg/ 13 kts

24 hrs, valid at:
181800z — 40.9n 140.6e
Max sustained winds – 025 kt, gusts 035 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over land
vector to 36 hr posit: 055 deg/ 13 kts

36 hrs, valid at:
190600z — 42.4n 143.5e
Max sustained winds – 020 kt, gusts 030 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
dissipated as a significant tropical cyclone over land

remarks:
172100z position near 38.1n 135.8e.
Tropical depression 11w (Nangka), located approximately 232 nm
west-northwest of yokota ab, has tracked north-northeastward at
09 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height
at 171800z is 12 feet. Next warnings at 180300z, 180900z, 181500z
and 182100z. Refer to tropical storm 01c (halola) warnings
(wtpn32 pgtw) for six-hourly updates.//
Nnnn

(Via @wunderground)

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Jul, 2015 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NANGKA (11W) currently located near 36.1 N 134.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

CLICK IMAGE FOR MORE DETAIL

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 171800 CCA
WARNING AND SUMMARY 171800.
WARNING VALID 181800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 50N 162E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 50N 162E TO 49N 167E 46N 169E.
WARM FRONT FROM 46N 169E TO 42N 171E 38N 172E.
COLD FRONT FROM 46N 169E TO 41N 164E 40N 158E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 40N 158E TO 40N 150E 40N 140E 40N 137E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 43N 141E
44N 145E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 35N 170E 39N 159E 36N
141E.
SUMMARY.
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 1511 NANGKA (1511) TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1002 HPA AT 37N 136E NE 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1002 HPA NEAR 22N 127E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1008 HPA AT 34N 129E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 54N 132E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 33N 158E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1512 HALOLA (1512) 996 HPA AT 18.3N 157.5E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 171800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 171800.
WARNING VALID 181800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 50N 162E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 50N 162E TO 49N 167E 46N 169E.
WARM FRONT FROM 46N 169E TO 42N 171E 38N 172E.
COLD FRONT FROM 46N 169E TO 41N 164E 40N 158E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 40N 158E TO 40N 150E 40N 140E 40N 137E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 43N 141E
44N 145E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 35N 170E 39N 159E 36N
141E.
SUMMARY.
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 1511 NANGKA (1511) TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1002 HPA AT 37N 136E NE 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1002 HPA NEAR 22N 127E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1008 HPA AT 34N 129E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 54N 132E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 33N 158E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1512 HALOLA (1512) 996 HPA AT 18.3N 157.5E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Korea/ China: Severe Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (09W) 12/1500Z POSITION nr 37.5N 125.1E, moving N/NNE 20 knots (JTWC) – Updated 120715 1500z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (09W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1509-00 c12

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15071215 c12

STS 1509 (CHAN-HOM)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 12 July 2015

<Analyses at 12/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N36°35′(36.6°)
E125°00′(125.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E600km(325NM)
W390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 13/00 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N39°40′(39.7°)
E127°00′(127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 13/12 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N42°10′(42.2°)
E130°30′(130.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 09W (Chan-hom) Warning #49
Issued at 12/1500Z

wp0915 c12

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 11/2100Z

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 11/2100Z

09W_112332sams c12

WTPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 049
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121200Z — NEAR 36.8N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 015 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.8N 124.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 39.6N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 40.9N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 37.5N 125.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Jul, 2015 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM (09W) currently located near 36.8 N 124.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    P’yongyang (39.0 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sariwon (38.5 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kanggye (41.0 N, 126.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Hamhung (39.9 N, 127.6 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Sinuiju (40.1 N, 124.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201509W_0 c12

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

seawarn c12

CLICK IMAGE FOR MORE DETAIL

WTJP21 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509) 980 HPA
AT 36.6N 125.0E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 39.7N 127.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 42.2N 130.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 120600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED EASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED
BY 15N 176E 15N 180E 13N 180E 13N 176E 15N 176E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED WESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED
BY 13N 176E 13N 180E 11N 180E 11N 176E 13N 176E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 32N 136E 33N 136E
35N 137E 36N 143E 43N 146E 56N 163E 60N 164E 60N 180E 40N 180E 36N
160E 32N 142E 32N 136E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 49N 132E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 47N 153E SE 15 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 57N 146E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1511 NANGKA (1511) 950 HPA AT 18.6N 137.6E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509) 975 HPA AT 34.9N 124.2E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Typhoon Dolphin 07W threatens Iwo Jima (Iwo To) – 180515 1517z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Dolphin (1507, 07W)

(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 33
FEET. – JTWC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

1507-00 d18

1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TY 1507 (DOLPHIN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 18 May 2015

<Analyses at 18/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°10′(22.2°)
E138°55′(138.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE390km(210NM)
SW280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 19/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°40′(23.7°)
E139°25′(139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 19/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°05′(25.1°)
E141°00′(141.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 20/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°35′(31.6°)
E148°00′(148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 40km/h(22kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)
<Forecast for 21/12 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44°25′(44.4°)
E165°30′(165.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 85km/h(47kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 600km(325NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Super Typhoon 07W (Dolphin) Warning #40
Issued at 16/1500Z

wp0715 d18

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/07W_181132sair.jpg

WTPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
181200Z — NEAR 22.5N 138.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 015 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 138.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 23.9N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 25.8N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 28.7N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 32 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 33.3N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 138.8E.
TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM SOUTHWEST OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 33
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 May, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon DOLPHIN (07W) currently located near 14.0 N 144.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Guam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the Northern Mariana Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hagatna (13.5 N, 144.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201507W d18

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 181200

WTJP22 RJTD 181200
WARNING 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1507 DOLPHIN (1507) 955 HPA
AT 22.2N 138.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 23.7N 139.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 25.1N 141.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 31.6N 148.0E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 44.4N 165.5E WITH 325 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 181200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 984 HPA
AT 48N 176E SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 48N 176E TO 48N 180E 46N 175W.
WARM FRONT FROM 46N 175W TO 43N 172W 40N 170W.
COLD FRONT FROM 46N 175W TO 41N 177W 38N 180E 35N 175E 32N 166E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N 166E TO 31N 158E 32N 148E 33N 137E 35N 132E
27N 120E 25N 112E 24N 109E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
400 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 35N 132E WESTERN JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 28N 130E 31N 130E
35N 141E 42N 142E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 33N 180E 29N 165E 28N
149E 28N 130E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 39N 129E ENE 15 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 48N 146E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 34N 156E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 26N 163E EAST 10 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1507 DOLPHIN (1507) 955 HPA AT 22.2N 138.9E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines: Typhoon NOUL (06W)/ DODONG further weakened and accelerated as it moves Northeastward (PAGASA) – 110515 1245z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon NOUL SIX (06W)/ DODONG in PH

Typhoon “#DodongPH” has further weakened and accelerated as it moves Northeastward (PAGASA)

(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 38 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1506-00 N11

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Analysis Chart (PDF)

TY 1506 (NOUL)
Issued at 10:45 UTC, 11 May 2015

Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°20′(22.3°)
E122°50′(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL80km(45NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°25′(22.4°)
E122°55′(122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL80km(45NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°35′(23.6°)
E124°00′(124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area ALL140km(75NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°05′(26.1°)
E126°50′(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55km/h(29kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL180km(95NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°20′(28.3°)
E129°50′(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 65km/h(34kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N30°30′(30.5°)
E133°35′(133.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 70km/h(38kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 240km(130NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

PHILIPPINES

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

dodong_15051106

5:00 p.m. Weather Bulletin in pdf 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 06W (Noul) Warning #34
Issued at 11/0900Z

wp0615 n11

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/06W_110532sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 034
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
110600Z — NEAR 21.8N 122.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 025 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 122.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 25.2N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 36 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 29.6N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 41 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 34.6N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 43 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 40.2N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 123.5E.
TYPHOON 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z,
120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 May, 2015 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NOUL (06W) currently located near 21.8 N 122.6 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Typhoon Noul Nears Southern Japan Monday Near Landfall Outlook (WestPacWx)

Typhoon Noul continues to track North away from the Philippines and towards Japan this Monday evening setting the stage for a early season typhoon in the southern Japanese islands including the island of Okinawa.  Winds will max out there during the morning hours as the storm races by being pulled quickly north east by a passing cold front. At this time JMA is warning of winds gusting up to 180kph in Okinawa, …

Read More

Other Reports

Typhoon Dodong (Noul) slammed into the northern tip of the Philippines May 10, prompting almost 3,000 people in Northern Luzon to flee their homes and knocking out power in Cagayan. It has since weakened, and the state weather bureau said the typhoon will be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Tuesday, May 12. It’s expected to move north towards Japan, the government weather station said.

Read the full story on Rappler.

Read the full story on evacuation on Rappler.

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 110900

WTJP31 RJTD 110900
WARNING 110900.
WARNING VALID 120900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1506 NOUL (1506) 955 HPA
AT 22.0N 122.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 26.1N 126.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 30.5N 133.6E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 110600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 110600.
WARNING VALID 120600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 40N 167E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 40N 167E TO 39N 170E 38N 172E.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 172E TO 36N 174E 33N 176E.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 172E TO 31N 165E 25N 153E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
500 MILES ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER LOW 994 HPA AT 38N 160E
MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 36N 123E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 36N 123E TO 34N 125E 31N 128E.
COLD FRONT FROM 36N 123E TO 30N 120E 26N 115E 25N 111E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 43N 146E 47N 152E
55N 162E 53N 180E 30N 180E 30N 170E 37N 160E 40N 150E 43N 146E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 47N 146E ESE 20 KT.
LOW 998 HPA AT 57N 151E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 35N 142E ESE 20 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1506 NOUL (1506) 950 HPA AT 21.6N 122.3E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1507 DOLPHIN (1507) 998 HPA AT 09.8N 160.0E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

GALE WARNING # 08 (FINAL)

FOR: Strong to gale force winds associated with Typhoon “DODONG”.
Issued at: 5:00 pm today, 11 May 2015
Strong to gale force winds has weakened.

SEABOARDS

WEATHER

WIND FORCE
(KPH / KNOTS)

SEA CONDITION

WAVE HEIGHT (meters)

THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF NORTHERN LUZON
(Isabela and Eastern Coast of Cagayan)

Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms

(35– 59) /(19 – 32)

Moderate to rough

2.1 to 4.0

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are alerted against moderate to rough seas.

This is the final gale warning.

PAGASA

Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Typhoon Vongfong 19W 121000Z 29.4N 127.4E, moving N at 12 knots (JMA)

Typhoon Vongfong

(Tropical Storm Vongfong 19W)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1419

TY 1419 (VONGFONG)
Issued at 10:50 UTC, 12 October 2014

<Analyses at 12/10 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N29°25′(29.4°)
E127°25′(127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL700km(375NM)
<Estimate for 12/11 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N29°35′(29.6°)
E127°25′(127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL700km(375NM)
<Forecast for 12/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°05′(30.1°)
E127°55′(127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area NE330km(180NM)
SW280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 12/21 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°00′(31.0°)
E129°00′(129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area NE370km(200NM)
SW310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 13/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N32°00′(32.0°)
E130°55′(130.9°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 45km/h(24kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area SE370km(200NM)
NW330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 13/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N33°30′(33.5°)
E133°25′(133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45km/h(24kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area SE390km(210NM)
NW330km(180NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1914.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/19W_120532sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
120600Z — NEAR 28.9N 127.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 350 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9N 127.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 30.7N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 33.0N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 28 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 36.2N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 32 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 40.0N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 127.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z,
130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Oct, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm VONGFONG (19W) currently located near 28.9 N 127.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0900

WTJP31 RJTD 120900
WARNING 120900.
WARNING VALID 130900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1419 VONGFONG (1419) 965 HPA
AT 29.3N 127.3E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 31.0N 129.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 33.5N 133.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 120600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 990 HPA
AT 32N 169E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 32N 169E TO 32N 173E 30N 177E.
COLD FRONT FROM 32N 169E TO 26N 162E 22N 152E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N 152E TO 23N 145E 26N 140E 30N 135E 31N
129E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 38N 169E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 39N 169E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 1002 HPA
AT 39N 160E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST SLOWLY.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 400
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 998 HPA
AT 56N 139E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 56N 139E TO 54N 145E 50N 147E.
COLD FRONT FROM 56N 139E TO 53N 141E 47N 139E 44N 134E 42N 129E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 33N 133E 34N 137E 30N 140E 27N 140E 27N 137E 28N 134E 33N
133E.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 39N 145E SE 15 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 48N 179E ESE 15 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1419 VONGFONG (1419) 965 HPA AT 28.8N 127.1E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ Russia: Severe Tropical Storm HALONG 11W 101800Z nr 41.2N 137.3E, moving N at 45km/h(25kt)(JMA) 2 Dead, 1.6 million displaced (WestPacWx) – Updated 100814 2130z (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm 1411 /11W HALONG

Japan: 2 Dead, 1.6 million displaced (WestPacWx)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

Japan Meteorological agency (RSMC Tokyo is the lead agency in this area)

Click map for source

Click map for source

Japan Radar

Japan Radar and Nowcasts (Precipitation, Thunder, Tornadoes) CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE AND ANIMATION – JMA

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

Click on image for source

STS 1411 (HALONG)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 10 August 2014

<Analyses at 10/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N41°10′(41.2°)
E137°20′(137.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 45km/h(25kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE560km(300NM)
NW390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 11/06 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44°00′(44.0°)
E137°05′(137.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 966hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N46°50′(46.8°)
E136°40′(136.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
 Unit:

1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

 

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Aug, 2014 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm HALONG (11W) currently located near 34.1 N 134.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Click image for source (tropicalstormrisk.com)

STS Halong Leaves 2 Dead and over a million displaced (Sunday Afternoon Update)

Halong Leaves Japan

Severe Tropical Storm Halong tore across Western Japan Sunday Afternoon bringing torrential rain and gale force winds. Now the storm is moving out over the sea of Japan but outer rain bands will continue to impact Japan through Monday.

Two deaths have now been a direct result of the storm, over 1.6 million people have been displaced and millions of dollars in damages have occurred due to flooding.

NHK is reporting a women died due to flood waters in the Takamatsu River Sunday. Saturday morning a 78 year old man was swept away in rising flood waters in Iwate Prefecture.

Furthermore this weekend is the Obon weekend in Japan where millions of people are traveling to visit the graves of ancestors.  With over 400 flights cancelled and Shinkansen lines shut down many of those people are stuck at airports and stations waiting for service to resume.

Typhoon Broadcast Cut Short For Earthquake Broadcast

To cap things off a 6.1M earthquake sent a scare through residents of northern Japan around 1PM JST. The image to the right shows typhoon warnings being aired on NHK with the earthquake warning over laid.

The disaster unfolding across Japan should come as no surprised though, this storm has been slowly working its way north towards Japan for nearly a week now. Following Tropical Storm Nakri which brough torrential rainfall and then a stationary front that lingered over Japan this week the grounds of Shikoku, Kyushu and Western Honshu were already saturated and unable to bring in any more rainfall.

Now in the past 48hrs along Typhoon Nakri has dumped well over 1,000mm in parts of Kochi Prefecture on Shikoku. While other parts of western Japan have seen above 800mm in total. You can find this information at this link. 

For only the second time in 2014 JMA has issued an emergency warning. It was issued in Mie Prefecture for ground loosening rains. This is the highest level on JMAs warning scale and indicates a very serious threat to the loss of life.

In Shimamoto near where Videographer and Westpacwx Team Member James Reynolds is there has been reports of damage to homes after rivers in the Shimamoto river swelled when Halong came ashore. You can follow his twitter account as he documents the storm there below.

..

 

..

Western Pacific Weather first reported on this threat a week ago after the storm passed Guam and started tracked towards Japan.

Halong will continue to track over the Sea of Japan Sunday Night through Monday pulling in moisture from the south and eventually getting sheared to the east. What this means in short is heavy rainfall can be expected across Central and Northern Japan to start off the work week.

Over 100mm even in to the Tokyo area is possible as well. Around noon on Sunday Tornado Advisories were issued in the Tokyo Metro area due to strong cells rolling through the city.

For the most part the weather in Tokyo should not be to severe but it will be enough to cause delays on the roads and even localized flooding.

 

Halong Information

COULD RUSSIA GET HIT BY A TYPHOON OR A TS?

The bigger question is could the Russian Far East get impacted by Tropical Storm Strength winds, that seems like a more likely yes, but will Halong maintain its tropical characteristics farther to the north is unlikely. We will continue to track the progression of the storm but even Vladivostok could be looking at rough conditions by Monday and Tuesday of this coming week.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP22 RJTD 101800
WARNING 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1411 HALONG (1411) 975 HPA
AT 41.2N 137.3E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 25 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 44.0N 137.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
966 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 46.8N 136.7E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 101800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 978 HPA
AT 54N 168E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 54N 168E TO 56N 173E 55N 179E.
WARM FRONT FROM 55N 179E TO 54N 180E 52N 177W 48N 174W.
COLD FRONT FROM 55N 179E TO 50N 175E 46N 170E 43N 165E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 43N 165E TO 41N 159E 40N 153E 40N 146E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 400
MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 47N 152E
55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 41N 180E 40N 170E 38N 153E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 11N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 33N 116E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 61N 142E SSE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 46N 153E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 36N 160E ALMOST STATIONARY.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 138E TO 43N 141E 41N 143E 40N 146E.
COLD FRONT FROM 39N 135E TO 36N 131E 34N 125E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1413 GENEVIEVE (1413) 965 HPA AT 31.5N 172.1E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1411 HALONG (1411) 975 HPA AT 41.2N 137.3E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

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South Korea/ Yellow Sea: Severe Tropical Storm NAKRI 1412 12W 021500Z near 33.7N 124.8E, moving N at 10km/h(6kt)(JMA) – Updated 020814 1837z (UTC)

Tropical Storm NAKRI

1412 (JMA) #12W (JTWC)

 9/02/20149/03/2014

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS NOW OUT OF DATE

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency (JMA is the lead agency in this area)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

TS 1412 (NAKRI)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 2 August 2014

<Analyses at 02/15 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N33°40′(33.7°)
E124°50′(124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E560km(300NM)
W370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 03/03 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N34°50′(34.8°)
E124°35′(124.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 03/15 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°25′(35.4°)
E125°10′(125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N36°30′(36.5°)
E126°50′(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slowly
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N38°00′(38.0°)
E129°00′(129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
 Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

South Korea

Korea Meteorological Administration

No.12 NAKRI

Issued at(KST) : 2014.08.03. 01:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2014.08.02. 15:00 Analysis 33.5 124.7 985 25 90 300
(NNE 260)
Normal Medium N 11
2014.08.03. 03:00 Forecast 34.6 124.8 990 24 86 250
(NNE 220)
Weak Small N 10 100
2014.08.03. 15:00 Forecast 35.5 125.1 994 21 76 210
(NNE 180)
Weak Small NNE 9 150
2014.08.04. 03:00 Forecast 36.1 125.6 996 19 68 150
(NE 120)
Weak Small NE 7 210
2014.08.04. 15:00 Forecast 36.6 126.2 1000 NE 6

�� It is provided only for the typhoon information in progress. The past information could be found in National Typhoon Center homepage.

�� National Typhoon Center Homepage

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1214.gif

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp12140215.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/12W_021132sair.jpg

WTPN32 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
021200Z — NEAR 33.3N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.3N 124.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z — 34.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 35.3N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 36.1N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 36.9N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 39.0N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 33.6N 124.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND
031500Z. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logo

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Aug, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NAKRI (12W) currently located near 32.7 N 124.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    China
        probability for TS is 75% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 72 hours
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Sariwon (38.5 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    P’yongyang (39.0 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Other Reports

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 021200
WARNING 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1412 NAKRI (1412) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 980 HPA
AT 33.3N 124.5E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 34.6N 124.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 35.4N 125.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 36.5N 126.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 38.0N 129.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1200

WWJP25 RJTD 021200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 51N 157E
60N 163E 60N 180E 40N 180E 40N 160E 36N 150E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 56N 142E ESE SLOWLY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 42N 153E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 53N 166E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 29N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 40N 174E EAST SLOWLY.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1411 HALONG (1411) 935 HPA AT 14.9N 135.1E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1412 NAKRI (1412) 980 HPA AT 33.3N 124.5E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA /1200

WWCI50 BABJ 021200
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1530UTC AUG.02 2014=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC AUG. 02=
FORECAST VALID 1200UTC AUG. 03=
WARNNING=
SUPER TY HALONG 1411(1411) 940HPA AT 15.1N 135.1E
MOVING WNW 12KM/H AND MAX WINDS 58M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 19.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
300KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
480KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
AND PADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
160KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
210KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
AND PADIUS OF 64KTS WINDS
70KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
AND FORECAST FOR 031200UTC AT 16.2N 132.5E 910HPA
AND MAX WINDS 65M/S NEAR CENTER=
TS NAKRI 1412(1412) 985HPA AT 32.8N 124.6E
MOVING NNW 12KM/H AND MAX WINDS 23M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 7.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
400KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
400KM SOUTHWEST
350KM NORTHWEST
AND FORECAST FOR 031200UTC AT 35.3N 125.1E 995HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
WINDS FROM 12 TO 18M/S GUST 23M/S SEAS UP TO 5.5M
OVER SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 16 TO 23M/S GUST 28M/S SEAS
UP TO 6.0M OVER NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
AND BASHI CHANNEL AND SOUTH PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 14 TO 20M/S GUST 23M/S SEAS UP TO
6.0M OVER KOREA STRAIT=
SLY WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
4.0M OVER SEA NEAR RYUKYU ISLANDS AND SEA SOUTHWEST
OF JAPAN=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 38 TO 50M/S SEAS UP TO 15.0M
OVER SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 20 TO 28M/S SEAS UP TO 9.0M
OVER SEA WEST OF GUAM=
WINDS FROM 42 TO 52M/S SEAS UP TO 17.0M OVER SEAS
NEAR CENTER OF HALONG=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER SOUTH PART
OF YELLOW SEA AND NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND
SEA NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN AND KOREA STRAIT AND SEA
SOUTHWEST OF JAPAN AND SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA
ISLANDS AND ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
AND SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT BANDA AND LAUT MALUKU=
FORECAST=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 16 TO 24M/S GUST 25 TO 32M/S
SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER MIDDLE AND SOUTH PARTS OF
YELLOW SEA AND NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
NE WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS
UP TO 4.0M OVER NORTH PART OF YELLOW SEA=
NE WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S GUST 17M/S SEAS UP TO
2.5M OVER BOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT=
SW WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER
SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT
AND MIDDLE PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER SEA
EAST OF TAIWAN AND BASHI CHANNEL AND SOUTH PART OF
SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 17M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SOUTHWEST PART FO JAPAN SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 16 TO 24M/S SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER
KOREA STRAIT=
SLY/SE WINDS FROM 08 TO 17M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=
NW WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S WILL INCREASE FROM 18 TO
24M/S SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER SEA NORTHEAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 33 TO 41M/S SEAS UP TO 14.0M
OVER SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS=
SW WINDS FROM 18 TO 24M/S SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER SEA
WEST OF GUAM=
WINDS FROM 50 TO 60M/S SEAS UP TO 18.0M OVER
SEAS NEAR CENTER OF HALONG=

Kyushu/ Okinawa/ Japan: Typhoon NEOGURI 08W/ FLORITA (=CAT3-SS) 081700Z nr 28.8N 125.7E, moving N at 13 knots (JMA) Leaving Southern Japanese islands, heading toward Kyushu (WestPacWx) – Updated 080714 1830z (UTC)

TYPHOON NEOGURI 1408 (JMA)

(Equivalent to a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) (JTWC)

Typhoon Neoguri is leaving behind the southern Japanese islands Tuesday night and now sets its eyes ahead towards the southern coast of Kyushu.(WestPacWx)

25 People injured in Okinara, 2 died at sea in Western Japan (NHK)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

JMA IS THE LEAD AGENCY IN THIS AREA

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Analysis Chart (CLICK IMAGE FOR ANIMATION/SOURCE)

 

Japan Radar (JMA) Radar and Nowcasts (Precipitation, Thunder, Tornadoes): Japan (CLICK IMAGE FOR ANIMATION/SOURCE)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

CLICK ON IMAGE TO GO TO JMA WARNINGS PAGE

TY 1408 (NEOGURI)
Issued at 17:50 UTC, 8 July 2014

<Analyses at 08/17 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°50′(28.8°)
E125°40′(125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE310km(170NM)
NW170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE700km(375NM)
NW440km(240NM)
<Estimate for 08/18 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N29°00′(29.0°)
E125°40′(125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE310km(170NM)
NW170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE700km(375NM)
NW440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 09/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°30′(30.5°)
E126°10′(126.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area SE350km(190NM)
NW260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 09/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°20′(31.3°)
E127°30′(127.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area SE370km(200NM)
NW310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N31°40′(31.7°)
E132°25′(132.4°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area SE480km(260NM)
NW430km(230NM)
<Forecast for 11/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N34°00′(34.0°)
E138°10′(138.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

SOUTH KOREA

Korea Meteorological Administration

Typhoon

Forecast Chart

No.8 NEOGURI

Issued at(KST) : 2014.07.09. 01:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2014.07.08. 15:00 Analysis 28.3 125.6 945 45 162 400
(W 350)
Very Strong Medium N 22
2014.07.09. 03:00 Forecast 30.5 126.0 955 41 148 360
(WNW 310)
Strong Medium N 21 100
2014.07.09. 15:00 Forecast 31.9 128.0 965 38 137 320
(NW 270)
Strong Medium NE 20 150
2014.07.10. 03:00 Forecast 32.3 130.6 970 36 130 300
(NW 270)
Strong Medium E 20 210
2014.07.10. 15:00 Forecast 33.2 133.5 980 31 112 280
(NW 230)
Normal Small ENE 25 250
2014.07.11. 03:00 Forecast 35.4 137.6 985 27 97 250
(NW 200)
Normal Small ENE 38 325
2014.07.11. 15:00 Forecast 38.5 142.3 990 24 86 230
(NW 180)
Weak Small ENE 45 400
2014.07.12. 15:00 Forecast 45.7 151.1 996 NE 45

�� It is provided only for the typhoon information in progress. The past information could be found in National Typhoon Center homepage.

�� National Typhoon Center Homepage

2014

COMS : 2014/07/09 01:45 (KST)

PHILIPPINES

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Severe Weather Bulletin #6 (FINAL) issued at 10AM July 08, 2014

TY FLORITA is now outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility ( PAR).

At 9AM today, the eye was located @ 610 km NE of Basco, Batanes (25.4N,126.0E), with maximum winds/gustiness:185/220 kph. It is forecast to move North @ 20 kph. It will continue to enhanced the SW monsoon bringing moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over Palawan, Mindoro, Cavite, Batangas, Zambales and Bataan while the rest of Luzon and western Visayas will have occasional rains. Sea travel is risky over the northern, eastern, & southern seaboards of Luzon and the western seaboards of southern Luzon and of Visayas. It is expected to be at 200km Northwest of Okinawa, Japan this evening. PAGASA-DOST

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 081500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 27.8N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 125.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 29.9N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 31.2N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 31.9N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 19 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 33.0N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 22 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 37.7N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 29 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 47.3N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 28.3N 125.8E.
TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 37 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
NNNN

 

Prognostic Reasoning

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jul, 2014 12:00 GMT

 

Typhoon NEOGURI (08W) currently located near 27.8 N 125.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
 Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
  South Korea
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

WestPacWX

Western Japan Braces for Neoguri, Forecast and Impacts

 

Vis Sat

Typhoon Neoguri is leaving behind the southern Japanese islands Tuesday night and now sets its eyes ahead towards the southern coast of Kyushu.

Several thousand residents from the islands southern coastlines have been told to evacuate ahead of Typhoon Neoguri due to the threat of storm surge near the coast and flash flooding farther inland. Heavy rains due to the rainy season front have already saturated the ground here.  In parts of southern Kyushu up to 200mm of rainfall is expected through Wednesday evening.

Winds in the Amani islands off the southern coast of Kyushu could see gust as high as 126kph through Wednesday Evening. 11 meter high waves are expected on the Amani islands.

TCCOR 1 Will likely be issued for the military in Sasebo. If not typhoon warnings via JMA are still in place.

Damaging winds as high as 130kph gusting to 185kph at landfall in Kagoshima is in the forecast by Thursday morning as Typhoon Neoguri makes landfall along the southern Coast of Kyushu as the equivalant of a Category 1 storm. 

These winds will be over a small area though and the bulk of the area will see 90kph sustained winds.

In Kagoshima and Miyazaki up to 400-500mm of rainfall is likely as moisture wraps around Neoguri is pushed on shore in to the mountains of the Western Japan. Flash flooding, landslides and rapid river level rise will be a high threat here.

Even though the storm in Okinawa is very dangerous the overall impact on infrastructure and the risk of flooding and landslides will likely result in more damage across Kyushu despite it being a slightly weaker storm.

Flood Threat in Western Japan

Farther north the rain will be the biggest issue though. Across much of Honshu flooding will be a problem through Friday including in the Tokyo area river level rise will be one of the main threats from this storm.

The rainfall in the Kanto Plain will likely start by Thursday evening and last through Friday as the Center of Neoguri pushes over mainland Japan.

At this time no cancellations of flights in Tokyo have been made but anyone who plans on traveling should be prepared for the risk of delays cancellations.

Expect Neoguri to weaken rapidly over Japan. It will still carry with it a deluge of moisture but the center of circulation will be torn apart over the mountains of Japan.

Tragedy in Kochi

High waves ahead of Neoguri caused a capsize off of Kochi Prefecture in Shikoku resulting in one death on Tuesday. Waves at the time of the capzise were 4 meters high according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Typhoon Neoguri Live Coverage

 The video update is now over, you can watch the playback above, continued updates and new information will be posted below.  For latest track and extended info. go to the tropical information center.  or find us on facebook. Typhoon Neoguri now moving over the southern Japanese islands, max winds reported is up to 191kph. At this

Read More…

Typhoon Neoguri Damage and Impact Information

Typhoon Neoguri now moving over and away from the southern Japanese islands, max winds reported is up to 191kph. At this time 590,000 have been advised to evacuate. On the main island of Okinawa most of these are in the Ginowan area near coastal locations.  Once again with the evacuation advisories, it states. “Authorities are telling them to

Read More…

 

Violent Typhoon Neoguri will blow past Okinawa on Tuesday (Monday Night Update)

Residents in Southern Japan should now be hunkered down and prepared to ride out Typhoon Neoguri as it races north towards Okinawa, Kume-Jima, Miyako-Jima and Ishigaki on Tuesday. PLEASE CHECK BACK IN FOR A LIVE CAST ON OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL Despite the forecast taking the center of the storm west of Okinawa the wind field

Read More…

Violent “Super” Typhoon Neoguri Nears Okinawa, Evacuations in Kyushu Underway

End

Okinawa Emergency Action Guide

American Red Cross Okinawa

Okinawa Red Cross Hospital

Kadena AFB, Okinawa Facebook page

MARITIME

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP31 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1408 NEOGURI (1408) 950 HPA
AT 28.4N 125.7E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 30.5N 126.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 31.3N 127.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 081200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 998 HPA
AT 34N 153E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 142E 43N 142E
51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 37N 180E 36N 170E 39N 167E 39N 155E 40N
142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 42N 162E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 27N 142E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 51N 153E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 55N 170E SSE 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 124E TO 36N 130E 38N 136E 35N 141E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 161E TO 32N 164E 36N 166E 37N 170E 40N 173E
41N 179E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1408 NEOGURI (1408) 945 HPA AT 27.7N 125.7E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Okinawa/ Naha/ Japan/ Philippines: Typhoon NEOGURI/ FLORITA 08W 061500Z nr 19.3N 129.9E, moving WNW at 11 knots (JTWC) Nearing Okinawa and southern Japanese islands (WestPacWx) – Updated 060714 1518z

Typhoon NEOGURI/ FLORITA now a Super Typhoon. Latest update here: http://wp.me/p2k2mU-2JX

Japan: Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS 07W 171500Z nr 29.6N 131.9E, moving E at 34 knots (JTWC) – Updated 170614 1715z

Tropical Depression Hagibis

16 June 2014 to 18 June 2014

Tropical Storm HAGIBIS 1407 – JMA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS) – JTWC

Weather Underground

(Image: wunderground.com) Tropical Depression Hagibis 16 June 2014 to 18 June 2014 (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1407

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories for Japan

CLICK IMAGE TO GO TO SOURCE (JMA) WHERE THE WARNING MAP IS INTERACTIVE

 

TS 1407 (HAGIBIS)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 15 June 2014

<Analyses at 15/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N23°25′(23.4°)
E116°30′(116.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE280km(150NM)
NW220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 16/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N25°50′(25.8°)
E117°00′(117.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0714.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/07W_171132sair.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 171500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
171200Z — NEAR 29.2N 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 080 DEGREES AT 34 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2N 130.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 30.9N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 27 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 31.9N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 29.6N 131.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 34 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.
//
NNNN

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Jun, 2014 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

NO WARNING AS AT 170614 1646 UTC

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Hagibis re-intensifies near Japan, What to Expect – WestPacWx

Tropical Storm Hagibis is acting like that annoying little person you know that will just not go away. This storm formed quickly in the south china sea, came on shore Sunday, weakened over China and then made a return from the grave Tuesday morning in the East China Sea as a Tropical Storm yet again with winds sustained at 65kph and pressure at 996hpa.

In reality though this storm really is sub-tropical at this point. The bulk of the convection remains along the western side of the storm with dry air wrapping in from the north on the east. Furthermore it has an abundance of upper level support shearing apart the low level circulation.  Still though it will pack a 1-2 punch with the rain season front in western Japan.

VIS SAT

Specifically southern Kyushu heavy rainfall up to 200mm is expected through Wednesday morning along with high winds and large waves near the coastline.

The storm is racing north of Okinawa today but a few thunderstorms are still possible on what would be a cold front developing south of the storm. A few of these could become strong. The biggest problem in Okinawa though will be the gusty winds and high waves from the North.

Hagibis will continue to track east south of Tokyo but still will bring high waves up and down the pacific coast of Japan as a strong extra-tropical storm.

Farther North in Japan what we are seeing is a cut off low proving to be the ignition for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday in Central and Northern Japan. Cold upper level air combined with day time heating could trigger more severe weather.

I say more because on Monday a storm brought heavy rainfall and hail to Tochigi prefecture. In Utsunomiya flooding was reported along with landslides causing 30 families to be evacuated and nine homes were inundated by flood waters.

In Eastern China is still expected mostly due to the rainy season front. Flooding is still possible in areas south of the Yangzi river basin.

The monsoon continues to settle farther south but later this week we could see another surge from the south west. Check the latest update for more information on this..

https://i1.wp.com/www.southchinasea.org/files/2011/08/Southeast-Asia-Reference-Map-CIA-World-Factbook.jpg

(Image credit: middlebury.edu)

MARITIME

Marine Warnings – Japan

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1407 HAGIBIS (1407) 996 HPA
AT 29.1N 130.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 35 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 31.0N 136.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 32.1N 141.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

HIGH SEAS FORECAST JAPAN June 17 2014 – 14:24:49 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST HONG KONG CHINA June 17 2014 – 14:20:23 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST CHINA June 17 2014 – 13:39:55 UTC

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Snow storm deaths rise to 19 with more than 1,600 injured. Perhaps more snow midweek – 170214 1640z

Hundreds of passengers rested on benches and floors under blankets at Haneda airport as public transport services were suspended. Japans road, rail and air travel services faced further disruptions on Saturday, reports and officials said, after a fresh snowstorm killed three people and injured 850 others following last weeks deadly blizzard.

Snow began falling on Friday morning in the capital Tokyo and piled up to 26cm by early Saturday, a week after the heaviest snowfall in decades left at least 15 people dead and more than 1,200 injured across the nation.

A driver was killed on Friday in a crash involving his car and a truck on an icy road in Shiga, central Japan, while a farmer died after a tractor overturned on a snow-covered road in southwestern Oita, local media said.

In a separate snow-related accident, a driver was killed and three others injured on an expressway in central Shizuoka, the news reports said. Public broadcaster NHK said some 850 people, including one in a coma, have been injured in snow-related accidents across the nation since snow hit western Japan late on Thursday.

Drivers were struggling to move their cars in the capitals residential district of Setagaya, while snow started melting and flooding some roads in downtown Tokyo. Television footage showed hundreds of passengers resting on benches and floors under blankets at Haneda airport in Tokyo as public transport services were suspended due to heavy show.

At least 628 flights, mostly on domestic routes, were cancelled on Saturday at Haneda and other airports in eastern Japan, NHK said, a day after more than 260 flights were grounded due to heavy snow.

Two commuter trains collided at Motosumiyoshi station in Tokyo early on Saturday leaving 19 passengers injured, officials said. The accident occurred as train services were disrupted due to the storm but it was not immediately clear if the collision was directly related to the bad weather. Transport authorities are investigating the case. The storm also caused delays and suspensions on the shinkansen bullet train services and the closure of a number of highways across the country.

Some 187,000 households lost power mainly in eastern Japan due to snow and strong winds, NHK said.

The meteorological agency continued warning of heavy snow in eastern Japan as well as strong winds and high waves along coastal areas, which may cause snow-slides.

Last week, as much as 27cm of snow was recorded in Tokyo, the capitals worst snowfall for 45 years. While much of that snow had melted, the remains of larger piles as well as some slightly diminished snowmen were still in evidence across the city.

Sunday, 16 February, 2014 at 16:36 (04:36 PM) UTC RSOE

Update

The death toll from a severe snowstorm that has swept across Japan has reached 19, with parts of the country being almost at a standstill.

Media and officials said Monday that the extreme weather, which sparked widespread transport chaos in central, eastern and north eastern parts of the country, left more than 1,600 injured.

Officials added that hundreds of cars are stuck on some mountain roads and rescuers are delivering emergency aid to them. The snowfall has also caused major disruptions to air traffic and widespread power outages have been reported in several cities.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has promised to send a government team to help the struggling area. “We will do everything we can to protect the lives and possessions of people in cooperation with local governments and relevant ministries,” he told the parliament on Monday. The recent heavy snowfall first began in Japan on January 8.

It was the heaviest snowfall in the Asian country decades, which left 11 people dead and more than 1200 injured. Snow began falling again on Friday morning. The snowfall also caused major disruptions to air and ground traffic. Japan’s largest domestic airline network All Nippon Airways (ANA) said the snow grounded around 350 domestic and international flights

Japan Meteorological agency

(Image: JMA) Current warnings (Click image for source)

Other Reports

WestPacWxWest Pacific Weather (WestPacWx)

Deadly Valentines Day Storm in Japan Recap

Recapping Fridays Storm plus a look at possibly another snow event by mid-week in Tokyo.

Published on Feb 15, 2014

Heavy snowfall has blanketed wide swaths of the pacific coastline of Japan Friday and Saturday causing 2 deaths and over 1,200 injuries across the country. 137 homes reported damage due to roof collapse or trees falling on them after the heavy we snow piled up on Friday.

According to JMA more than one meter of snow accumulated west of Tokyo in Kofu City in Yamanashi Prefecture, as of 6 AM on Saturday. Thats the heaviest snowfall the city has seen since record-keeping began 120 years ago.

Central Tokyo had 27 centimeters of snow, exactly the same as one week ago and the heaviest in 45 years. Yokohama beat that out with 29CM of snowfall accumalated over night Friday in to Saturday.

Japan: Earthquake of mag 7.1 strikes off Japan triggering small tsunami. Fukushima nuclear plant undamaged – 251013 2015z

7.1 Mag Earthquake off the east coast Honshu, Japan

JMA confirms 7.1 Mag Earthquake Information (Information on seismic intensity at each site)
Issued at 03:13 JST 26 Oct 2013

Occurred at (JST) Latitude
(degree) Longitude
(degree) Depth Magnitude Region Name
02:10 JST 26 Oct 2013 37.2N 144.6E 10 km 7.1 Fukushima-ken Oki

More here: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/

All Tsunami Advisories have been cancelled.

No reports of damage after 7.3 magnitude earthquake hits Japan | Fox News (link)

An earthquake of magnitude 7.3 struck Saturday morning off Japan’s east coast, the U.S. Geological Survey said. Japan’s emergency agencies declared a tsunami warning for the region that includes the crippled Fukushima nuclear site.

 

Other Reports

Japan Hit By 7.3-Magnitude Earthquake Off Fukushima Prefecture Coast, Tsunami Advisory Issued

(Video credit: BreakingNews!!!)

Published on Oct 25, 2013

TOKYO — TOKYO (AP) — An earthquake of magnitude 7.3 struck Saturday morning off Japan’s east coast, near the crippled Fukushima nuclear site, the U.S. Geological Survey said. Japan’s emergency agencies declared a tsunami warning for the area.

The quake hit at 3:10 a.m. Saturday Tokyo time (1310 GMT), the USGS said.

The tremor was felt in Tokyo, some 300 miles (480 kilometers) away.

Japan’s Meteorological Agency raised the tsunami warning for the area of Honshu. But the U.S. Pacific Tsunami Warning Center did not post warnings for the rest of the Pacific.

 

Japan:Typhoon (28W) LEKIMA 242100Z near 24.4N 144.5E, moving NW at 14 knots. (JTWC) CAT4 (Saffir-Simpson scale) – 241013 2250z

Typhoon (28W JTWC) (1328 JMA)

LEKIMA

is now equivalent to a CATEGORY4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale

…LEKIMA NO LONGER A SUPER TYPHOON...(NWS GUAM)

IWO TO IN NWS GUAM POTENTIAL TRACK AREA

(Scroll down for Japanese translation) (日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

(Image: JMA)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

Okinawa

(Image: JMA) Okinawa on radar (Click image for source & latest animation)

TY 1328 (LEKIMA)
Issued at 22:00 UTC, 24 October 2013

<Analyses at 24/21 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Violent
Center position N2420′(24.3)
E14430′(144.5)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E500km(270NM)
W330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 25/09 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N2730′(27.5)
E14425′(144.4)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 25/21 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N3205′(32.1)
E14655′(146.9)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45km/h(25kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)
<Forecast for 26/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N3830′(38.5)
E15640′(156.7)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55km/h(29kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 27/18 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N4040′(40.7)
E16835′(168.6)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 45km/h(24kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

National Weather Service Forecast OfficeWFO Guam

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/images/guam/errorTrack2.jpg

791

WTPQ32 PGUM 242107

TCPPQ2

BULLETIN

TYPHOON LEKIMA (28W) ADVISORY NUMBER 18

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP282013

800 AM CHST FRI OCT 25 2013

…LEKIMA NO LONGER A SUPER TYPHOON…

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————–

LOCATION…24.4N 144.5E

ABOUT 395 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN

ABOUT 445 MILES NORTH OF PAGAN

ABOUT 470 MILES NORTH OF ALAMAGAN

ABOUT 645 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN AND

ABOUT 755 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

———————-

AT 700 AM CHST…1500 UTC…THE EYE OF TYPHOON LEKIMA WAS LOCATED BY

SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 144.5 EAST.

LEKIMA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. LEKIMA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO

THE NORTH TODAY…THEN CONTINUE TO CURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A

RAPID INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 130 MPH. FURTHER WEAKENING

IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND

OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE

WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 145 MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY

————-

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY THAT WILL BE ISSUED ON TYPHOON LEKIMA BY

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

W.AYDLETT

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2813.gif

WTPN32 PGTW 242100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 28W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 018

02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:

241800Z — NEAR 23.6N 144.6E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 144.6E

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

250600Z — 26.9N 144.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 24 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:

251800Z — 31.3N 146.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 30 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:

260600Z — 35.9N 151.5E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 30 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

261800Z — 39.3N 157.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:

242100Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 144.5E.

TYPHOON 28W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF

IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX

HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL

STORM 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY

UPDATES.//

NNNN

TSR logo

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

Storm Tracker Map

Typhoon LEKIMA: Current TSR Data (link)

Other Reports

Typhoons Francisco and Lekima weaken

Typhoon Francisco has weakened to a tropical storm, and is bringing heavy rains to Japan as it stays offshore and heads northeast, parallel to the coast. Super Typhoon Lekima, which stayed at Category 5 status for a day and a half, has now weakened to a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. Satellite loops show that Lekima is still an impressive typhoon with a prominent eye surrounded by a solid ring of eyewall clouds with very cold cloud tops. Lekima is predicted to recurve to the northeast without affecting any land areas. While Lekima was at peak strength between 12 and 18 UTC on Wednesday, its eye expanded greatly in size while the storm stayed at Category 5 strength, something that is very unusual to see (thanks to Scott Bachmeier of the University of Wisconsin CIMSS for the info and animation.)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Lekima, taken at approximately 01:05 UTC on October 24, 2013. At the time, Lekima was a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph. Image credit: NASA.
” – Dr. Jeff Masters

Lekima Strongest Storm 2013 & Francisco Okinawa Impact

Published on October 23, 2013 by // Westernpacificweather

Today we continue to monitor our two typhoons. One nearing Okinawa and the southern Japanese islands bringing high winds and waves up to 10 meters high. The other well over open ocean but has dropped its pressure to the lowest in 2013. With a hpa of 905 it is the strongest Typhoon this season.

Typhoon Francisco is nearing the southern Japanese islands today bringing with it high winds, large waves and heavy rainfall. Already on Daito Jima winds up to 108kph have been recorded and on Kadena AB in southern Okinawa gust of 30kts have been seen. The worst of the storm is exepcted to impact the islands Wednesday night through Thursday morning.

Storm Warnings are in effect at this time for all of the southern Japanese islands via JMA and the Okinawa Military has set Storm Watch (This means that winds are not forecasted to exceed 50 knots sustained (the criteria for destructive winds) but there still exists a probability of high winds due to the proximity of the storm. High winds may include gusts exceeding 50 knots. )

Typhoon Francisco will start to impact the southern Japanese islands on Wednesday night in to Thursday late morning bringing in high waves at first along with scattered showers sometimes becoming heavy

Vis Sat

and max winds likely at strong Tropical Storm Strength. The worst of the weather will remain on the northern and western coastlines of the Okinawa and the Kagoshima islands taking the brunt of the storm. The worst of the weather will be on Daito Jima where winds up to 140kph is likely along with 10 meter high waves.

Our thoughts at Westpacwx are Winds in the southern half of Okinawa are forecasted to peak at 40-50G65kts on Wednesday overnight through Thursday afternoon. A few gust could even get higher than this nearing the 65kt threshold but most will stay near 55kts. A total of 150mm of rainfall will also fall across the main island of Okinawa.  This will be reserved to the western sea boards and along coastal areas. If you’re in a sheltered area of course the winds will be much lower. The northern and north western half of the island will see the winds for a longer period of time on Thursday along with the Amami islands in Kagoshima.

Through Thursday in to Friday much weaker Francisco will skirt the Japanese coastline with the center of circulation staying off shore.  Typhoon Lekima should have enough influence on Francisco to cause it to swing away from the Japan Coastline. Francisco by that time will have a higher pressure than Lekima. This means it may get absorbed by Lekima thus moving east towards the storm and away from Japan. Still though moisture from Francisco and a Stationary boundary over Japan will bring the main threat of heavy rainfall across the area. The heaviest is forecasted to fall in Shikoku where 250-350mm will be seen along the pacific coast.  Expect low lying urban and river flooding in Tokyo along with dangerous waves near coastal areas. Areas of heaviest rainfall could see the risk of mudslides by Friday Evening in to Saturday Morning.  The worst being on Shikoku the Kii-Pennisula and the Izu islands which are still recovering from the impacts of Typhoon Wipha.

29 people have been confirmed dead and 16 are still missing following the massive record breaking amount of rainfall brought in by Wipha across Izu Oshima. Rescue workers continue to work around the clock in search of the missing.

Nursing facilities and clinics on the island are set to be closed as a precaution ahead of the storm.

Oshima Town officials are also making arrangements to evacuate about 550 elderly and disabled people from the island.

By Saturday Afternoon in to Evening Parts of Hokkaido and northern Honshu could see snowfall from the storm.

Daily Sat Update

Westernpacificweather

MARITIME

918

WHGM70 PGUM 231850

MWWGUM

URGENT MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU

450 AM CHST THU OCT 24 2013

PMZ153-154-240700-

/O.CON.PGUM.SW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-131024T0800Z/

TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-

450 AM CHST THU OCT 24 2013

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT

UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING

SEAS NEAR 10 FEET TODAY WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR

OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT. SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW 10 FEET BY

EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

MARINERS SHOULD AVOID SHOALING AREASWHERE LONG PERIOD SWELL

CAN SHARPEN INTO LARGE BREAKING WAVES. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR

WAVES TO BREAK MUCH FARTHER FROM SHOALING AREAS THAN IS NORMALLY

EXPERIENCED. REMEMBERBREAKING WAVES CAN EASILY CAPSIZE EVEN

LARGER VESSELS.

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 2100

WTJP32 RJTD 242100

WARNING 242100.

WARNING VALID 252100.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 1328 LEKIMA (1328) 915 HPA

AT 24.3N 144.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.

POSITION GOOD.

MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 27.5N 144.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

925 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 32.1N 146.9E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 241800

WARNING AND SUMMARY 241800.

WARNING VALID 251800.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

GALE WARNING.

NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER

WATERS BOUNDED BY 33N 130E 28N 127E 22N 127E 21N 122E 23N 117E 27N

120E 30N 122E 34N 121E 35N 126E 33N 130E.

GALE WARNING.

NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER

WATERS BOUNDED BY 51N 167E 60N 169E 60N 180E 55N 180E 53N 173E 51N

167E.

GALE WARNING.

DEVELOPING LOW 996 HPA

AT 47N 175E SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 25 KNOTS.

WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND

200 MILES ELSEWHERE.

GALE WARNING.

DEVELOPING LOW 1010 HPA

AT 43N 135E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.

EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST

SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.

SUMMARY.

HIGH 1026 HPA AT 44N 152E ESE 15 KT.

HIGH 1016 HPA AT 23N 174E ALMOST STATIONARY.

STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N 129E TO 32N 133E 33N 135E 32N 138E 31N

141E.

REMARKS.

TYPHOON 1328 LEKIMA (1328) 915 HPA AT 23.6N 144.7E : SEE TROPICAL

CYCLONE WARNING.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1327 FRANCISCO (1327) 965 HPA AT 27.0N 130.7E :

SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Japanese (Translated by Google)

日本:台風( 28W ) LEKIMA 242100Z 24.4N 144.5E付近は、 14ノットで北西に移動する。 ( JTWC ) CAT4 (サファシンプソンスケール) – 241013 2250z

台風( 28W JTWC ) ( 1328 JMA )
LEKIMA

今サファシンプソンスケールでCATEGORY4ハリケーンに相当します

… LEKIMAもはやSUPER TYPHOON … ( NWSグアム)

NWSグアムPOTENTIALトラック領域INにIWO

(日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン) (日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン)

(画像: wunderground.com ) 5日間の予報(ソース画像をクリック)

(画像: wunderground.com )衛星(ソース画像をクリック)

気象庁

(画像: JMA )
現在有効な警告/勧告

沖縄

(画像: JMA )レーダー上の沖縄(ソース&最新アニメーション画像をクリック)
TY 1328 ( LEKIMA )
午前22時UTC 、 2013年10月24日に発行した
21分の24 UTC>で<Analyses
1:43 –
暴力的な強度
中心位置N24 20 ‘ (24.3 )
E144 30 ‘ ( 144.5 )
動きNNW毎時25キロ( 14カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧915hPa
中央の55メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 105カラット)
最大突風スピード75メートル/秒( 150カラット)
50カラット風の面積以上ALL150km ( 80nmの)
30カラット風の面積以上E500km ( 270NM )
W330km ( 180nm以下)
25/09 UTC>ため<Forecast
非常に強い強度
確率円の中心位置N27 30 ‘ ( 27.5 )
E144 25 ‘ ( 144.4 )
動きN毎時30キロ( 16カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧925hPa
中央45メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 90カラット)
最大突風スピード65メートル/秒( 130カラット)
確率サークル90キロの半径( 50NM )
ストーム警告エリアALL240km ( 130nmプロセス)
21分の25 UTC>ため<Forecast
強い強度
確率サークルN32 05 ‘の中心位置(32.1 )
E146 55 ‘ ( 146.9 )
動きNNE毎時45キロ( 25カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧950hPa
中央の40メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 80カラット)
最大突風スピード60メートル/秒( 115カラット)
確率160キロの円の半径( 85NM )
暴風雨警報エリアALL300km ( 160NM )
18分の26 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
確率サークルN38の中心位置30 ‘ ( 38.5 )
E156 40 ‘ ( 156.7 )
動きNE毎時55キロ( 29カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧980hPa
中央30メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 55カラット)
最大突風スピード40メートル/秒( 80カラット)
確率330キロの円の半径( 180nm以下)
ストーム警告エリアALL440km ( 240NM )
18分の27 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
LOW
確率円の中心位置N40 40 ‘ ( 40.7 )
E168 35 ‘ ( 168.6 )
動きENE毎時45キロ( 24カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧1000hPa
最大持続風速18メートル/秒( 35カラット)
最大突風スピード25メートル/秒( 50カラット)
確率460キロの円の半径( 250nmの)

国立測候所予測OfficeWFOグアム

791

WTPQ32 PGUM 242107

TCPPQ2

BULLETIN

TYPHOON LEKIMA ( 28W ) ADVISORY番号18

国立気象SERVICE TIYAN GU WP282013

800 AM CHST金2013年10月25日

… LEKIMAもはやSUPER TYPHOON …

時計と警告

——————–

なし。

700の概要CHST AM … 2100 UTC … INFORMATION

———————————————–

LOCATION … 24.4N 144.5E

395マイルほどアグリハン島の北北西

PAGAN OF 445 ABOUT MILES NORTH

アラマガン島の約470 kmノース

645マイルほどサイパン北と

グアム755 ABOUT MILES NORTH

最大持続WINDS … 130 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT … NW OR 16 MPH AT 320 DEGREES

考察および展望

———————-

700 AT CHST … 1500 UTC午前… TYPHOON LEKIMA OF EYEはBYに位置していた

LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH NEAR衛星…経度144.5 EAST 。

LEKIMAは16 MPHでNORTHWEST動いている。 LEKIMAはに向けることが期待され

NORTH TODAYは… THEN WITH北東に向かってカーブしていき

土曜日の朝までに前進速度が急激に増加。

最大持続WINDSは130 MPHに減少しました。さらなる弱体化

NEXT 24時間を通して期待されています。 TYPHOON強風はEXTEND

65 CENTER FROM MILES … AND TROPICAL STORM力UP外側

WINDSは、最大145マイルを引き出さ。

NEXT ADVISORY

————-

これはBY TYPHOON LEKIMAに発行されますLAST顧問です

国立測候所。

$ $

W.AYDLETT

合同台風警報センター( JTWC )

Google Earthのグラフィックオーバーレイ

WTPN32 PGTW 242100

MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN真珠湾HI / /

SUBJ /熱帯低気圧の警告/ /

RMKS /

1 。 TYPHOON 28W ( LEKIMA )警告NR 018

NORTHWESTPAC IN 02 ACTIVE熱帯低気圧

MAXはONE- MINUTE平均に基づいてWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

警告POSITION :

241800Z — NEAR 23.6N 144.6E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 14 KTS AT 320 DEGREES

030 NM以内の正確な位置

POSITIONは、衛星のそば中心を基準に

PRESENT WIND配分:

115 KT 、突風140 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

064 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

23.6N 144.6E : POSITを繰り返す

予測:

AT VALID 12時間:

250600Z — 26.9N 144.4E

110 KT 、突風135 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

064 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

034 KTのWINDS OF RADIUS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

24人事POSITへのベクトル: 025 DEG / 24 KTS

AT VALID 24時間:

251800Z — 31.3N 146.7E

MAX風速 – 100 KT 、突風125 KT

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

温帯BECOMING

064 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

36人事POSITへのベクトル: 040 DEG / 30 KTS

VALID AT 36時間:

260600Z — 35.9N 151.5E

MAX風速 – 080 KT 、突風100 KT

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

温帯BECOMING

064 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

48人事POSITへのベクトル: 055 DEG / 30 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK :

AT VALID 48時間:

261800Z — 39.3N 157.8E

055 KT 、突風070 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

温帯

備考:

24.4N 144.5E NEAR 242100Z POSITION 。

約194 NM東南東LOCATED TYPHOON 28W ( LEKIMA )

IWO TOは過去6年以上14ノットで北西追跡して

HOURS 。 241800Zで最大有義波高は50フィートです。次

250300Z 、 250900Z 、 251500Z AND 252100Z AT警告。 TROPICALを参照してください

SIX – HOURLY FOR STORM 26W ( FRANCISCO )警告( WTPN33 PGTW )

UPDATES 。 / /

NNNN

TSRのロゴ
熱帯性低気圧リスク(TSR)

ストームトラッカー地図

台風LEKIMA :現在TSRデータ(リンク)
その他のレポート
台風サンフランシスコとLekimaは弱まる

“台風フランシスコは、熱帯低気圧に弱まっており、それがオフショアとどまり、北東ヘッドとして、日本に海岸に平行に大雨をもたらしている。日半は、カテゴリ5の状態に滞在したスーパー台風Lekimaは、現在弱まっている毎時150マイルの風とカテゴリ4嵐。に衛星ループLekimaはまだ非常に冷たい雲のトップスと眼の壁雲の固体リングに囲まれた著名な目で印象的な台風であることを示している。 Lekimaは、任意の土地に影響を与えずに北東に後ろに反らすことが予測される嵐がカテゴリで5強、参照するには非常に異例のことだ何か(ウィスコンシンCIMSS大学のスコットBachmeierおかげのため滞在中のエリア。 Lekimaは水曜日に12と18 UTC間のピーク強度であったがが、その目のサイズが大幅に拡大情報とアニメーション。 )

図3 。 2013年10月24日に約1:05 UTCに取らスーパー台風LekimaのMODIS衛星画像、 。当時、 Lekimaは毎時160マイルの風とカテゴリ5のスーパー台風だった。画像クレジット: NASA 。
” – ジェフマスターズ博士
Lekima最強ストーム2013 &サンフランシスコ沖縄インパクト

robspeta / / Westernpacificweatherによって2013年10月23日に公開

“今日、我々は我々の2台風を監視し続けています。 One近づい沖縄、高さ10メートルの強風と波を育てる南の日本列島。外洋上の他のよくしかし、2013年に最低のへの圧力を減少している。 905のHPAで、それは最強の台風この季節です。

台風フランシスコはそれで強風、大きな波や大雨をもたらす南の日本列島今日に近づいています。すでに大東の島は108kphまで巻きが記録されており、嘉手納AB上30kts南部沖縄突風で見てきた。嵐の最悪は、木曜日の朝を通して島水曜日の夜に影響するexepctedされています。

嵐の警告は”ストームウォッチ” (風が持続50ノット( “破壊的な風”の基準)を超えると予測されていませんが、ことを意味を設定している気象庁と沖縄の軍事経由南の日本列島のすべてについて、この時点で有効になっているそれでも50ノットを超える突風が含まれるstorm.強風の接近のために強風の確率が存在する。 )

台風フランシスコは時々重くなって散乱シャワーと一緒に最初に高波持ち込み昼前木曜日に水曜日の夜に南の日本列島に影響を与え始めます

VIは、土

と強力な熱帯低気圧強度でおそらく最大の風。天候最悪のは嵐の矛先を取って沖縄と鹿児島の島の北部と西部の海岸線上に残ります。天候の最悪の風、最大140kphは、10メートルの高さの波と一緒に可能性がある大東島になります。

Westpacwxで私たちの思考は、沖縄の南半分で風木曜日の午後を通して一夜水曜日に40 – 50G65ktsでピークと予測されています。少数の突風も、これは65カラットのしきい値に近づいていますが、ほとんど55ktsの近くに滞在するよりも高くなる可能性があります。降雨量150ミリメートルの合計も、これは西の海ボードに予約及び沿岸地域に沿ってされOkinawa.本島全体に落ちるでしょう。もしyouの風がはるかに低くなりますもちろん保護された領域に再。島の北部と北西半分は鹿児島の奄美の島とともに木曜日に時間の長い期間のために風を見ることができます。

木曜日までFridayはるかに弱いサンフランシスコにshore.台風Lekima 、それが日本の海岸線から離れてスイングさせるためにサンフランシスコに十分な影響力を持っている必要がありオフ滞在循環の中心に日本の海岸線をスカートになります。その時間でサンフランシスコLekimaよりも高い圧力を持つことになります。これは、 Lekimaこうして離れて日本から嵐に向かって東へ移動し、に吸収されるかもしれませんことを意味します。まだけれどもサンフランシスコからの水分や日本以上静止境界領域にわたって大雨の主な脅威をもたらすでしょう。重いは250〜350ミリメートルが太平洋沿岸に沿って見れる場所四国に落ちると予測されています。 は、沿岸地域の近くに危険な波と一緒に東京の低地の都市と河川洪水を期待。重い降雨量の地域は土曜日の朝に金曜日の夕方までに土砂崩れの危険性を見ることができました。 は最悪、四国紀伊Pennisula 、まだ台風Wiphaの影響から回復している伊豆島にあること。

29人が死亡が確認されており、 16はまだ伊豆大島越えWiphaによってもたらさ降雨量の膨大な記録破りの量以下の不足しています。救助隊員が行方不明の検索で時計を回避し続けています。

島の介護施設や診療所は、先に嵐の予防措置として閉鎖されるように設定されている。

大島町の職員も配置が島から550高齢者や障害者について、避難を行っている。

北海道と本州北部の夕べ部品にで土曜日の午後に嵐からの降雪見ることができました。

毎日更新して土

” – Westernpacificweather
MARITIME

918

WHGM70 PGUM 231850

MWWGUM

URGENT – 海洋気象のMESSAGE

国立気象SERVICE TIYAN GU

450 AM CHST木2013年10月24日

PMZ153 – 154から240700 –

/ O.CON.PGUM.SW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z – 131024T0800Z /

テニアン近海- SAIPAN沿岸WATERS –

450 AM CHST木2013年10月24日

…危険SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFTのアドバイザリは有効なまま

午後6時のCHST UNTIL今晩…

10 FEET TODAY NEAR SEASはFOR危険な状態を生成します

小型船舶のオペレータ。 SEASはBY 10フィートを下回るべきである(SHOULD)

EVENING 。

準備アクション/予防…

マリナーズの領域を浅水避けるべき…長い期間はSWELL WHERE

LARGE破り波にSHARPEN CAN 。 ITのは珍しいことではありません

通常はTHAN波が浅水地域からMUCH遠く破る

経験した。 REMEMBER …砕波することも容易に転覆CAN

太い血管。
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 2100

WTJP32は242100をRJTD

WARNING 242100 。

VALID 252100警告。

台風警報。

TYPHOON 1328 LEKIMA ( 1328 ) 915 HPA

24.3N 144.5E小笠原松濤はNORTHNORTHWEST 14ノットMOVING AT 。

良いポジション。

MAXは、中央付近の105ノットの風。

50 KNOTのWINDS OVER 80マイルの半径。

30 OVER KNOTのWINDSの半径は270 kmイースト半円AND 180マイル

ELSEWHERE 。

50マイル半径27.5N 144.4E AT 250900UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

925 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 90ノット。

85マイルの半径32.1N 146.9E AT 252100UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

950 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 80ノット。

気象庁。 =

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 241800

WARNINGと要約241800 。

VALID 251800警告。

警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。

GALE警告。

OVER実勢30〜40 KNOTS北東WINDS TO北風

33N 130Eで囲まWATERS 28N 127E 22N 127E 21N 122E 23N 117E 27N

120E 30N 122E 34N 121E 35N 126E 33Nの130E 。

GALE警告。

OVER実勢30〜40 KNOTS北東WINDS TO北風

51N 167E 60N 169E 60N 180E 55N 180E 53N 173E 51Nで囲まWATERS

167E 。

GALE警告。

LOW 996 HPAを開発

47N ATアリューシャンOF 175E SEA SOUTHはEASTSOUTHEAST 25ノットMOVING 。

WINDSはLOW南西部の600マイル以内に30 〜35ノット半円AND

ELSEWHERE 200マイル。

GALE警告。

LOW 1010 HPAの開発

JAPAN 、北東15ノットを移動する43N 135E SEA AT 。

LOW SOUTHEAST OF 600マイル以内に期待WINDS 30 〜35 KNOTS

半円AND 300マイルELSEWHERE NEXT 12時間。

概要。

44N 152E ESE 15 KT AT HIGH 1026 HPA 。

ALMOST STATIONARY 23N 174E AT HIGH 1016 HPA 。

31N 129E FROM 32N 133E 33Nに対して静止FRONT 135E 32N 138E 31N

141E 。

REMARKS 。

TYPHOON 1328 LEKIMA ( 1328 ) 23.6N 144.7E AT 915 HPAは: TROPICAL SEE

CYCLONE警告。

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1327サンフランシスコ( 1327 ) 27.0N 130.7E AT 965 HPA :

熱帯低気圧の警告が表示されます。

気象庁。 =

Japan: Tropical Depression 27W 200900Z near 24.3N 145.2E, moving NW at 20 knots (JTWC) Iwo To be aware – 201013 1020z

Tropical Depression 27W

IWO TO BE AWARE!

(Scroll down for Japanese translation) (日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)



 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2713.gif

WTPN31 PGTW 200900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 005

02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:

200600Z — NEAR 23.6N 145.8E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 20 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 145.8E

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

201800Z — 26.3N 143.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:

210600Z — 28.9N 142.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:

200900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 145.2E.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257

NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE

IMAGERY SHOWS THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS

UNRAVELED AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CONTINUED TO BE GREATLY

SHEARED SOUTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH

OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG 30-40 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

(VWS). THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW THAT WAS SUSTAINING THE REMNANT

CONVECTION HAS WANED, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

TD 27W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECAY AS IT TRACKS FURTHER POLEWARD

INTO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EVEN STRONGER VWS,

DISSIPATING BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY

THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY

MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

AT 200600Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26W (FRANCISCO)

WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //

NNNN

 

MARITIME

(Image: JMA) Japan Marine Warnings (Click image for source)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 200600

WARNING 200600.

WARNING VALID 210600.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 1327 FRANCISCO (1327) 925 HPA

AT 18.3N 137.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.

POSITION GOOD.

MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 20.3N 136.1E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 22.4N 134.6E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 24.6N 132.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 200600

WARNING AND SUMMARY 200600.

WARNING VALID 210600.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

GALE WARNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA

AT 10.0N 161.7E MARSHALLS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST SLOWLY.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 12.2N 159.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

GALE WARNING.

EXPECTED EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS PREVAILING

OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 142E 45N 149E 45N 156E 37N 156E 38N 142E

42N 142E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

WARNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA

AT 20.6N 146.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.

POSITION POOR.

MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

SUMMARY.

LOW 1012 HPA AT 33N 137E EAST 15 KT.

LOW 1010 HPA AT 59N 158E EAST 10 KT.

HIGH 1032 HPA AT 42N 157E ESE 10 KT.

REMARKS.

TYPHOON 1327 FRANCISCO (1327) 925 HPA AT 18.3N 137.3E : SEE TROPICAL

CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 0600

WWCI50 BABJ 200600

2:31:11:11:00

BT

PAN PAN=

MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING

AT 1015UTC OCT.20 2013=

MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC OCT. 20=

FORECAST VALID 0600UTC OCT. 21=

WARNNING=

SUPER TY FRANCISCO 1327(1327) 915HPA AT 18.4N

137.3E MOVING NNW 12KM/H AND MAX WINDS 62M/S NEAR

CENTER (SEAS UP TO 13.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS

WINDS 350KM AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS 150KM AND

FORECAST FOR 210600UTC AT 20.8N 136.3E 920HPA

MAX WINDS 60M/S NEAR CENTER=

SUMMARY=

NE WINDS FROM 06 TO 12M/S GUST 16M/S SEAS UP TO

2.0M OVER SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA AND NORTH PART

OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND BASHI

CHANNEL AND BEIBU GULF AND MID-WEST PART OF SOUTH

CHINA SEA=

NE WINDS FROM 08 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER

SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT AND

NORTHEAST AND MID-EAST PARTS OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

NE WINDS FROM 13 TO 22M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER SEA

SOUTH OF JAPAN=

WINDS FROM 21 TO 36M/S SEAS UP TO 8.0M OVER SEA

WEST OF NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS=

WINDS FROM 37 TO 62M/S SEAS UP TO 13.0M OVER SEA

NEAR CENTER OF FRANCISCO=

HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER SEA WEST

OF NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS AND ANDAMAN SEA AND NORTH

PART OF THAILAND GULF AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA

SUNDA STRAIT=

FORECAST=

NE WINDS FROM 14 TO 20M/S GUST 24M/S SEAS UP TO

3.5M OVER SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN

STRAIT AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND BASHI CHANNEL=

WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER JAPAN

SEA AND KOREA STRAIT AND SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=

NE WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO

2.5M OVER NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND

NORTHEAST AND MID-EAST PARTS OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

NE WINDS FROM 08 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER

NORTHWEST AND MID-WEST PARTS OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUST 24M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M

OVER SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS AND SEA NORTHEAST

OF THE PHILIPPINES=

WINDS FROM 21 TO 36M/S SEAS UP TO 8.0M OVER SEA

WEST OF NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS AND SEA WEST OF BONIN

ISLANDS=

WINDS FROM 37 TO 62M/S SEAS UP TO 13.0M OVER SEA

NEAR CENTER OF FRANCISCO=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 0600

WWHK82 VHHH 200600

40:1:31:11:01:00

HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING

WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.

WARNINGS

GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA (ECS) AND THE

TAIWAN STRAIT.

SYNOPSIS (200600UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST

UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE NORTHEAST MONSOON AND

SUPER TYPHOON FRANCISCO (1327), GALE FORCE WINDS ARE

EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ECS AND THE TAIWAN STRAIT.

SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS

SEAS 6 M OVER THE GALES WARNING AREAS.

SWELL NE 3 M OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN AND SEAS NEAR LUZON.

THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER

SCATTERED SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS (TS)

OVER THE GULF OF THAILAND AND SEAS NEAR THE MALAY PENINSULA.

ISOLATED SQ SH AND TS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH

CHINA SEA.

SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY

VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2000 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japanese (Translated by Google)

日本:知っておくために20ノット( JTWC )硫黄島で北西に移動する熱帯低気圧24.3N 145.2E付近27W 200900Z 、 – 201013 1020z

熱帯低気圧の27W
IWOは認識しておく!

(日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン) (日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン)

(画像: wunderground.com ) 5日間の予報(ソース画像をクリック)

(画像: wunderground.com )衛星(ソース画像をクリック)

Ð Z

合同台風警報センター( JTWC )

Google Earthのグラフィックオーバーレイ

WTPN31 PGTW 200900

MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN真珠湾HI / /

SUBJ /熱帯低気圧の警告/ /

RMKS /

1 。熱帯低気圧27W (トゥエンティ)警告NR 005

NORTHWESTPAC IN 02 ACTIVE熱帯低気圧

MAXはONE- MINUTE平均に基づいてWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

警告POSITION :

200600Z — NEAR 23.6N 145.8E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 20 KTS AT 310 DEGREES

020 NM以内の正確な位置

POSITIONは、衛星のそば中心を基準に

PRESENT WIND配分:

025 KT 、突風035 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

WATERに比べて大きな熱帯低気圧AS散逸

23.6N 145.8E : POSITを繰り返す

予測:

AT VALID 12時間:

201800Z — 26.3N 143.3E

020 KT 、突風030 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

WATERに比べて大きな熱帯低気圧として散逸

24人事POSITへのベクトル:340 DEG / 14 KTS

AT VALID 24時間:

210600Z — 28.9N 142.2E

020 KT 、突風030 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

WATERに比べて大きな熱帯低気圧として散逸

備考:

24.3N 145.2E NEAR 200900Z POSITION 。

熱帯低気圧27W (トゥエンティ)は、 LOCATED約257

NM TO IWO 、日本東南東は、 20℃北西追跡して

過去半時間以上ノット。 ANIMATEDマルチスペクトル衛星

IMAGERY完全に露出低レベルの循環センターがいることを示しています

ASSOCIATED対流が大幅にされ続けた、AS解明

南方せん断。 UPPERレベルの分析は、システムがSOUTHであることを示し

STRONG 30-40 KNOT VERTICALウインドシアの分野でRIDGE軸の

( VWS ) 。レムナントを維持WAS赤道が流出

ANIMATED水蒸気IMAGERY ONに証明されるように対流が、衰退していたとして。

TD 27Wは、 ITをさらに極方向トラックとして急速に減衰すると予想され

COOLER海面温度とさらに強くVWS INTO 、

TAU 12で散逸。これは、このシステムでFINAL WARNING IS

JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN真珠湾HI 。 SYSTEMが密接BE WILL

再生の兆候を監視した。最大有義波高

200600Z AT 10 FEETです。熱帯低気圧26W ( FRANCISCO )を参照してください

SIX – HOURLY UPDATESに対する警告( WTPN33 PGTW ) 。 / /

NNNN

MARITIME

(画像: JMA )は、日本の海洋からの警告(ソース画像をクリック)
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21は200600をRJTD

WARNING 200600 。

VALID 210600警告。

警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。

台風警報。

TYPHOON 1327年サンフランシスコ( 1327 ) 925 HPA

18.3N ATフィリピンOF 137.3E SEA EASTはNORTHWEST 07ノットMOVING 。

良いポジション。

MAXは、中央付近の100ノットの風。

50 KNOTのWINDS OVER 70マイルの半径。

30 OVER KNOTのWINDSの半径は240マイルNORTH半円AND 210マイル

ELSEWHERE 。

70マイルの半径20.3N 136.1E AT 210600UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

925 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 100ノット。

EXTENDED見通し。

110マイルの半径22.4N 134.6E AT 220600UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

925 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 100ノット。

160マイルの半径24.6N 132.9E AT 230600UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

930 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 95ノット。

気象庁。 =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 200600

WARNINGと要約200600 。

VALID 210600警告。

警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。

GALE警告。

熱帯低気圧1004 HPA

ゆっくりWESTSOUTHWESTをMOVING 10.0N 161.7EマーシャルAT 。

POSITIONのFAIR 。

MAXは、中心部に近い30ノットの風。

EXPECTED MAXのWINDS NEXT 24時間の中心部に近い35ノット。

120マイルの半径12.2N 159.8E AT 210600UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

GALE警告。

実勢EXPECTED北東WINDS TO東風30〜45 KNOTS

42N 142E 45N 149E 45N 156E 37N 156E 38N 142Eに囲まれWATERS OVER

NEXT 24時間42N 142E 。

警告。

熱帯低気圧1004 HPA

20.6N 146.5E AT小笠原松濤はWEST 10ノットの移動。

POORを配置します。

MAXは、中心部に近い30ノットの風。

概要。

33N 137E EAST 15 KT AT LOW 1012 HPA 。

59N 158E EAST 10 KT AT LOW 1010 HPA 。

42N 157E ESE 10 KT AT HIGH 1032 HPA 。

REMARKS 。

TYPHOON 1327年サンフランシスコ( 1327 ) 18.3N 137.3E AT 925 HPAは: TROPICAL SEE

CYCLONE警告。

気象庁。 =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 0600

WWCI50 BABJ 200600

2:31:11:11:00

BT

PAN PAN =

NAVAREA XI (IOR )のメッセージは、 NMC BEIJINGによって発行された

1015UTC 10月20日2013年= AT

メッセージは= EVERY 06 HOURSに更新されます

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC 10月20 =

VALID 0600UTC 10月を見込んでいます。 21 =

=をWARNNING

18.4N AT SUPER TY FRANCISCO 1327 ( 1327 ) 915HPA

137.3E 、近い北北西12キロ/ HとMAX WINDS 62M / SをMOVING

CENTER ( SEAS最大13.0M ) AND 30KTSの半径

WINDS 350キロと半径150キロ50KTS WINDS OF AND

20.8N 136.3E 920HPA AT 210600UTCの見通し

MAXのWINDS 60M / Sセンターの近く=

概要=

06 FROM 12M / Sガスト16M / S SEAS UP TO TO NEのWINDS

黄海北部の南部OVER 2.0M

東シナ海と海、台湾の東と橋の

チャネルとトンキン湾とSOUTH OF MID- WEST PART

CHINA SEA =

08 FROM UP 16M / SのSEAS TO OVER 2.5M TO NEのWINDS

SOUTHの東シナ海と台湾海峡の一部

北東部と南シナ海MID- EAST PARTS =

海の上に3.5M 13〜 22M / S SEAS TO NE WINDS UP

JAPAN OF SOUTH =

21 FROM UP 36M / S SEAS TO SEA OVER 8.0M TO WINDS

NORTHマリアナ諸島の西=

37からUP 62M / S SEAS TO SEA OVER 13.0M TO WINDS

FRANCISCO = OF NEAR CENTER

SEA WEST OVER 10KM THAN LESS HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY

NORTHマリアナ諸島とアンダマン海と北

タイ湾とスマトラ海西PART

スンダ海峡=

FORECAST =

14から最大20M / Sガスト24M / SのSEAS TO NEのWINDS

東シナ海、台湾の南部OVER 3.5M

海峡、台湾の海東とバシー海峡=

12 FROM UP 16M / SのSEAS TO JAPAN OVER 2.5M TO WINDS

JAPAN = OF SEA AND KOREA STRAIT AND SEA SOUTH

12から最大16M / Sガスト20M / S SEAS TO NEのWINDS

NORTHの東シナ海の一部OVER 2.5M

北東部と南シナ海MID- EAST PARTS =

08 FROM UP 2.0M TO OVER 12M / S SEAS TO NEのWINDS

北西部と南シナ海MID- WEST PARTS =

12 FROM UP 3.5M TO 20M / Sガスト24M / SのSEAS TO WINDS

琉球SEA EAST AND SEA NORTHEAST OVER

フィリピンOF =

21 FROM UP 36M / S SEAS TO SEA OVER 8.0M TO WINDS

NORTHマリアナ諸島と小笠原海WEST OF WEST

ISLANDS =

37からUP 62M / S SEAS TO SEA OVER 13.0M TO WINDS

FRANCISCO = OF NEAR CENTER
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 0600

WWHK82 VHHH 200600

40:1:31:11:01:00

HONG KONG気象サービスは、次の機能を提供

WARNING /南シナ海のための情報。

警告

東シナ海(ECS ) AND OVER強風

台湾海峡。

SYNOPSIS ( 200600UTC )と24時間対応の予測

コンバインド北東モンスーンの影響とアンダー

SUPER TYPHOONサンフランシスコ( 1327年)は、強風は

ECSと台湾海峡に影響を与えると予想。

SIGNIFICANT HIGH / SWELL SEAS

SEASウェールズWARNINGエリアOVER 6 M 。

TAIWAN NEAR SEAS ANDルソンNEAR SEAS OVER NE 3 Mを膨潤させる。

雷雨/悪天候

スコールの散在( SQ ) SHOWERS (SH)と雷雨(TS)

タイ湾とマレー半島NEAR SEAS OVER 。

SOUTHの南部の上に隔離SQ SHとTS

CHINA SEA 。

海霧/視界

DOWN SQ SHとTS 2000 Mへの可視性。

生きるか死ぬかの決定のためにこのサイト上のすべての情報を使用しないでください。すべての情報は、公式のソースへの補足として意図されています。親切にあなたの国の公式の天候を参照してください

Japan: Tropical Storm (26W) Francisco 250900Z near 29.4N 134.0E, moving NE at 15 knots (JTWC) Heavy rain expected across Japan – 251013 0945z

Tropical Storm (26W) Francisco (JTWC)

Severe Tropical Storm (JMA)

The threat..” “..through Friday and Saturday will be the drenching amount of rainfall Francisco will produce across Japan.”.. “Shikoku threat of flooding and landslides continues”

“..Izu Oshima is especially prone to the storm>>” ( Westernpacificweather)

(Scroll down for Japanese translation) (日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン)

(Image: JTWC) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: JTWC) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

All Tropical Cyclones

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

TORNADO RISK

Okinawa

(Image: JMA) Okinawa on radar (Click image for source & latest animation)

STS 1327 (FRANCISCO)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 25 October 2013

<Analyses at 25/06 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N2835′(28.6)
E13230′(132.5)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more E190km(100NM)
W110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E390km(210NM)
W330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 25/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N3020′(30.3)
E13640′(136.7)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area SE280km(150NM)
NW200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 26/06 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N3230′(32.5)
E14250′(142.8)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 50km/h(28kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
<Forecast for 27/06 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N3600′(36.0)
E15800′(158.0)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 60km/h(33kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

END

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2613.gif

WTPN33 PGTW 250900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 038

02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:

250600Z — NEAR 28.9N 133.0E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 045 DEGREES AT 15 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 28.9N 133.0E

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

251800Z — 30.7N 137.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 32 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:

260600Z — 33.6N 143.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:

250900Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 134.0E.

TROPICAL STORM 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 513 NM

SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z

IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z. REFER TO

TYPHOON 28W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //

NNNN

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Oct, 2013 6:00 GMT GMT

Tropical Storm FRANCISCO (26W) currently located near 25.9 N 129.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Other Reports

Typhoon Francisco Brings Record Rainfall & Lekima hits Outer Islands

Published on October 25, 2013 by (Meteorologist for NHK World TV in Tokyo) // Westernpacificweather

Typhoon Francisco has brought nearly three times the normal amount of rainfall for the month of October to portions of Shikoku today resulting in the evacuation over over 500 households and the continues threat of flooding and landslides.

Thus far the storm has produced winds up to 146kph have been seen on Daito Jima while on the Main island of Okinawa 97kph wind gust were recorded. At the Kadena AB where a good bulk of our readers are winds up to 40kts or 75kph has been seen with sustained winds lingering just under Tropical Storm Strength.

The threat though through Friday and Saturday will be the drenching amount of rainfall Francisco will produce across Japan.

Already several landslides have been reported on the Kii Pennisula and in Yoron Kyushu 5,500 people from 2,500 households had to be evacuated. In Kochi Shikoku where over 500mm on rainfall has occured in the past 24hrs over 500 homes have been evacuated due to rising waters.

JMA TRACK

These rains have been due to a Stationary front north of Francisco that has set up with the support of a upper level trough to the north and moisture being sucked in from the typhoon to the south.

With Francisco passing off the coastline on Friday it will add to the heavy rainfall that has already occurred bringing an additional 300mm across the region.

By the time Francisco reaches Tokyo it will be well off shore, yet heavy rainfall is still possible through Friday and Saturday morning. The good news is that the rains should quickly taper off through Saturday evening leaving rapidly improving conditions behind it.

Tokyo is not expected to see damaging winds but there could be a few reports near the water front over 50kph during the overnight hours. Wide Spread rainfall will be around 100mm across the Kanto area through Saturday afternoon. The worst of the weather in the Kanto area will be near coastal areas and including Izu Oshima.

Izu Oshima is the island where rescue workers continue to search for bodies following last weeks devastating Typhoon which caused a massive landslide is especially prone to the storm.

The areas that were destroyed by last weeks landslide are now lacking vegation to hold the soil in place as heavy rains start to batter the island in to Saturday morning. This means there is a risk of yet more mudslides.

Japan Radar

Nursing facilities and clinics on the island are set to be closed as a precaution ahead of the storm.

Oshima Town officials have evacuated about 550 elderly and disabled people from the island. The rest of the 2,300 residents that reside on the island have been advised to evacuate in fear of more landslides.

For information on preparations people are making ahead of this storm at Fukushima Daiichi please click here

As always Westpacwx is not an official agency. We will never pretend to be. Please check your official agency for information on these storms and the official WMO approved track. In this case JMA not JTWC. Westernpacificweather

NHK WORLD

Izu Oshima islanders advised to evacuate

Town officials on the island of Izu Oshima, south of Tokyo, have advised more than 2,000 residents in 2 mudslide-ravaged areas to evacuate their homes.

The call on Friday comes as another storm approaches the island.

On October 16th, Typhoon Wipha delivered heavy rain to Izu Oshima, triggering mudslides. 31 people were killed and 13 are still missing.

Town officials fear more downpours due to the approach of severe tropical storm, Francisco, which may loosen the ground further and heighten the risk of more mudslides.

About 2,300 residents in 1,200 households live in the risk areas.

Town officials say they may issue an evacuation advisory for the rest of the island’s areas, depending on the rainfall.

Oct. 25, 2013 – Updated 04:02 UTC

(Video credit: worldnewsdepartment)

Fukushima plant struggles with typhoon threat

The operator of the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant is racing to secure storage space for tainted rainwater as another powerful typhoon approaches.

Tokyo Electric Power Company has begun moving the rainwater into underground pools once deemed too leaky. The water is the result of typhoons and downpours that have filled barriers around radioactive waste water tanks.

TEPCO has been storing the most contaminated rainwater in tanks and in the basement of a turbine building. But with Typhoon Francisco set to hit Japans mainland over the weekend, the tanks are full.

Japans nuclear regulator has approved moving the tainted water to 3 underground pools. The pools have a total capacity of about 9,000 tons.

TEPCO stopped using the pools after similar models leaked in April. The utility now says it has no other option but to use them.

The utility also says it found 140,000 becquerels per liter of Beta-ray emitting radioactivity in an onsite ditch on Wednesday. The radioactivity has doubled since the previous day. TEPCO says it is transferring the contaminated water to a tank.

Oct. 23, 2013 Updated 20:39 UTC

MARITIME

(Image: JMA) Marine Warnings (Click image for source)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 250600

WARNING 250600.

WARNING VALID 260600.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

STORM WARNING.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1327 FRANCISCO (1327) 965 HPA

AT 28.6N 132.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 30.3N 136.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 32.5N 142.8E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 36.0N 158.0E WITH 210 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 250600

WARNING AND SUMMARY 250600.

WARNING VALID 260600.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

GALE WARNING.

DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA

AT 45N 179W SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.

WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND

400 MILES ELSEWHERE.

GALE WARNING.

DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA

AT 45N 137E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.

WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND

300 MILES ELSEWHERE.

GALE WARNING.

NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER

WATERS BOUNDED BY 30N 130E 27N 129E 20N 125E 21N 116E 30N 122E 34N

121E 37N 126E 34N 126E 34N 130E 30N 130E.

GALE WARNING.

NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER

WATERS BOUNDED BY 51N 162E 60N 170E 60N 180E 52N 180E 51N 162E.

SUMMARY.

HIGH 1032 HPA AT 43N 114E SE 10 KT.

HIGH 1026 HPA AT 55N 148E EAST 10 KT.

HIGH 1026 HPA AT 46N 154E ESE 10 KT.

HIGH 1016 HPA AT 21N 170E WEST SLOWLY.

STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 131E TO 32N 134E 33N 137E 32N 142E.

REMARKS.

TYPHOON 1328 LEKIMA (1328) 920 HPA AT 26.9N 144.4E : SEE TROPICAL

CYCLONE WARNING.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1327 FRANCISCO (1327) 965 HPA AT 28.6N 132.5E :

SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

 

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 0600

WWCI50 BABJ 250600

2:31:11:11:00

BT

PAN PAN=

MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING

AT 1015UTC OCT.25 2013=

MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC OCT. 25=

FORECAST VALID 0600UTC OCT. 26=

WARNNING=

STS FRANCISCO 1327(1327) 982HPA AT 28.8N 133.0E

MOVING ENE 32KM/H AND MAX WINDS 25M/S NEAR CENTER

(SEAS UP TO 6.5M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS 280KM

AND FORECAST FOR 260600UTC AT 32.7N 143.5E 988HPA

MAX WINDS 23M/S NEAR CENTER=

SUPERTY LEKIMA 1328(1328) 935HPA AT 26.9N 144.4E

MOVING NNE 45KM/H AND MAX WINDS 52M/S NEAR CENTER

(SEAS UP TO 11.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS 400KM

AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS 150KM AND FORECAST FOR

260600UTC AT 36.7N 150.9E 955HPA MAX WINDS 42M/S

NEAR CENTER=

SUMMARY=

N/NE WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO

2.5M OVER YELLOW SEA AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND

BASHI CHANNEL AND NORTH PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

NLY WINDS FROM 14 TO 22M/S SEAS UP TO 4.5M OVER

NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=

NE WINDS FROM 14 TO 20M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER

SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT=

NE WINDS FROM 08 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 1.8M OVER

WEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

WINDS FROM 14 TO 23M/S SEAS UP TO 5.5M OVER SEA

EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS AND SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN

AND SEA WEST OF BONIN ISLANDS=

HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER SEA

SOUTH OF JAPAN AND SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS

AND SEA WEST OF BONIN ISLANDS AND ANDAMAN SEA

AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA STRAIT AND

SULAWESI SEA AND LAUT MALUKU=

FORECAST=

NLY BACK WLY WINDS FROM 07 TO 12M/S SEAS UP 1.5M

OVER BOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT=

N/NW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP

2.5M OVER YELLOW SEA AND KOREA STRAIT AND JAPAN

SEA=

N/NE WINDS FROM 14 TO 20M/S GUST 21 TO 25M/S SEAS

UP TO 3.5M OVER EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT

AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND BASHI CHANNEL=

NE WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER

NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

NE WINDS FROM 08 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER

WEST AND MID-EAST PARTS OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

WINDS FROM 18 TO 24M/S GUST 25M/S SEAS UP TO

5.5M OVER SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN AND SEA EAST OF

RYUKYU ISLANDS AND SEA WEST OF BONIN ISLANDS=

 

END

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japanese (Translated by Google)

日本: 15ノット全国の予想( JTWC )豪雨でNEを移動する熱帯性低気圧( 26W )フランシスコ250900Z 29.4N 134.0E付近、 – 251013 0945z

熱帯性低気圧( 26W )サンフランシスコ( JTWC )
重度の熱帯性低気圧( JMA )

” …脅威..” “..金曜日と土曜日スルーフランシスコは、日本全体で生産する降雨の灌注量になります。 ” .. “洪水や地滑りの四国の脅威が”続け

( Westernpacificweather ) “..伊豆は嵐>>を特に受けやすいOshimais “

(日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン) (日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン)

(画像: JTWC ) 5日間の予報(ソース画像をクリック)

(画像: JTWC )衛星(ソース画像をクリック)

気象庁

すべての熱帯サイクロン
現在有効な警告/勧告

TORNADOのリスク

沖縄

(画像: JMA )レーダー上の沖縄(ソース&最新アニメーション画像をクリック)
STS 1327 ( FRANCISCO )
6時50分UTC 、 2013年10月25日に発行される
25/06 UTC>で<Analyses
1:43 –
強度 –
中心位置N28 35 ‘ (28.6 )
E132 30 ‘ ( 132.5 )
動きNEの毎時30キロ( 15カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧965hPa
中央30メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 60カラット)
最大突風スピード45メートル/秒( 85カラット)
50カラット風の面積以上E190km ( 100NM )
W110km ( 60nmの)
30カラット風の面積以上E390km (波長210nm )
W330km ( 180nm以下)
18分の25 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
確率サークルN30 20 ‘の中心位置(30.3 )
E136 40 ‘ ( 136.7 )
動きENE毎時35キロ( 20カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧975hPa
中央30メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 60カラット)
最大突風スピード45メートル/秒( 85カラット)
確率サークル90キロの半径( 50NM )
ストーム警告エリアSE280km ( 150nmの)
NW200km ( 110nmの)
26/06 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
確率円の中心位置N32 30 ‘ (32.5 )
E142 50 ‘ ( 142.8 )
動きENE毎時50キロ( 28カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧990hPa
中央23メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 45カラット)
最大突風スピード35メートル/秒( 65カラット)
確率160キロの円の半径( 85NM )
27/06 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
LOW
確率円の中心位置N36 00 ‘ (36.0 )
E158 00 ‘( 158.0 )
動きENE毎時60キロ( 33カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧1000hPa
最大持続風速18メートル/秒( 35カラット)
最大突風スピード25メートル/秒( 50カラット)
確率390キロの円の半径(波長210nm )

単位:
1KT (ノット)=毎時1.852キロ= 0.5144メートル/秒
1NM (海里)= 1.852キロ

END
合同台風警報センター( JTWC )

Google Earthのグラフィックオーバーレイ

WTPN33 PGTW 250900

MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN真珠湾HI / /

SUBJ /熱帯低気圧の警告/ /

RMKS /

1 。 TROPICAL STORM 26W ( FRANCISCO )警告NR 038

NORTHWESTPAC IN 02 ACTIVE熱帯低気圧

MAXはONE- MINUTE平均に基づいてWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

警告POSITION :

250600Z — NEAR 28.9N 133.0E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 15 KTS AT 045 DEGREES

020 NM以内の正確な位置

POSITIONは、衛星のそば中心を基準に

PRESENT WIND配分:

050 KT 、突風065 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

28.9N 133.0E : POSITを繰り返す

予測:

AT VALID 12時間:

251800Z — 30.7N 137.1E

040 KT 、突風050 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

温帯BECOMING

034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

24人事POSITへのベクトル: 060 DEG / 32 KTS

AT VALID 24時間:

260600Z — 33.6N 143.9E

035 KT 、突風045 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

温帯

備考:

29.4N 134.0E NEAR 250900Z POSITION 。

TROPICAL STORM 26W ( FRANCISCO )が、約513 NMのLOCATED

横須賀、 JAPAN 、南西は15ノットで北東追跡して

過去半時間以上。 250600Zで最大有義波高

21フィートです。 251500Z 、 252100Z AND 260300Z AT NEXT警告。参照する

SIX – HOURLY更新用TYPHOON 28W ( LEKIMA )警告( WTPN32 PGTW ) 。 / /

NNNN
TSR logoNW太平洋: 10月24日に発行される嵐の警告、 2013 GMT GMT 6:00

トロピカルストームサンフランシスコ( 26W )は、現在25.9の近くにN 129.8 Eが与えられたリードタイム( s)で、次の可能性(複数可)に土地を打つと予測されている:

イエローアラート市(s)とタウン(S)
沖縄(26.3 N 、 127.8 E )
TSのための確率は現在60%である

注意してください
イエローアラート(高架) CAT 1以上〜10 %と30 %の確率、又はTSの間に50%以上の確率である。
CAT 1は、少なくとも毎時74マイルの台風の強さの風、毎時119キロまたは64ノット1分間の持続を意味している。
TSは、少なくとも毎時39マイルの熱帯性低気圧の強さの風を意味し、毎時63キロまたは34ノット1分持続。

グラフィカルな予測情報と詳細についてhttp://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/をご覧くださ&#12356;

ストームトラッカー地図
その他のレポート
台風フランシスコは、記録的な雨量をもたらす& Lekimaアウター諸島に当たる

robspeta (東京のNHKワールドTVのための気象学者) / / Westernpacificweatherによって2013年10月25日に公開

“台風フランシスコは、500世帯以上にわたって避難の結果四国今日の部分に、10月の月間降水量のほぼ3倍の量を持ってきて、洪水や地滑りの脅威を続けている。

沖縄97kphの突風本島で記録した一方、これまで嵐が146kphまで風を生み出していますが、大東島で見てきた。嘉手納ABで私たちの読者の大半は良い風が40ktsにアップしているどこか75kphは、持続的な風がちょうど熱帯嵐の強さの下に残ると見られている。

金曜日と土曜日を通してしかし脅威はフランシスコは、日本全体で生産する降雨の灌注量になります。

すでにいくつかの地すべりは紀伊Pennisulaに報告し、与論島九州2,500世帯から5,500人が避難しなければならなかったしています。降雨で500ミリメートル以上の500の家の上の過去24時間以内に発生した高知四国で上昇海域のため避難している。

JMAトラック

これらの雨が南に台風から吸い込まれる上位北に谷や湿気の支援を受けて設定しているサンフランシスコの停滞前線の北側に起因している。

フランシスコは、金曜日に海岸線をオフに渡すと、それはすでに地域全体の付加的な300ミリメートルを持って来ることが発生した大雨に追加されます。

フランシスコは東京に達した時点でそれはよく海岸オフになり、まだ大雨は、金曜日と土曜日の朝を通してまだ可能である。良いニュースは、雨がすぐに土曜日の夜を通して先細りはその背後の条件を改善し、急速に離れるべきであるということです。

東京はダメージ風を見ることなく、一晩時間中50kphオーバーウォーターフロントの近くにいくつかの報告があるかもしれないと予想される。ワイドスプレッド降雨は土曜日の午後を通じて関東エリア全体で100ミリメートルの周りになります。関東地方の天気の最悪は伊豆大島を含む沿岸地域と近くなります。

伊豆大島では、救助隊員は、最後の週の大規模な地滑りが嵐に特に傾向が原因と壊滅的な台風の後の体を検索し続ける島です。

最後の週の地すべりによって破壊された地域は今大雨が土曜日の朝に島を打者に始めると場所の土壌を保持するためにvegationを欠いている。これは、まだ多くの土砂崩れの危険性があることを意味します。

日本レーダー

島の介護施設や診療所は、先に嵐の予防措置として閉鎖されるように設定されている。

大島町の職員は島から約550高齢者や障害者が避難している。島に存在する2,300の住民の残りの部分は、より地滑りの恐怖の中で避難することをお勧めしてきた。

人々が先に福島第一に、この嵐の作って準備する方法についてはここをクリックしてください

いつものようにWestpacwxは公式代理店ではありません。私たちはふりをすることは決してありません。これらの嵐や公式WMO承認のトラックについては、ご使用の公的機関を確認してください。この場合、気象庁JTWCれていません ” – 。 Westernpacificweather

伊豆大島の住民はWiphaに従うより地滑りの恐怖の中で、今日島を避難させることをお勧めされています。

– ロバートSpeta ( @ robertspeta ) 2013年10月25日

NHK WORLD
伊豆大島島民が避難することをお勧めし

伊豆大島、東京の南の島の町の当局者は彼らの家を避難させる2土砂崩れで荒廃した地域で2,000人以上の住民に助言している。

別の嵐が島に近づくと金曜日に呼び出しが来る。

10月16日に、台風Wiphaは土砂崩れを誘発する、伊豆大島に大雨を納入。 31人が死亡し、 13はまだ不足している。

町の職員は、さらに地面を緩め、より土砂崩れの危険性を高めることが深刻な熱帯暴風雨、サンフランシスコ、のアプローチのために多くの豪雨を恐れる。

1,200世帯で約2,300住民が危険地域に住んでいる。

町当局は、降雨量に応じて、島の地域の残りのための避難勧告を発行することができると言う。

2013年10月25日 – 更新4時02 UTC

(ビデオクレジット: worldnewsdepartment )
福島工場は台風の脅威と格闘

不自由福島第一原子力発電所のオペレータは、別の強力な台風のアプローチとして汚染された雨水用の収納スペースを確保して走っている。

東京電力は、かつてあまりに漏れみなさ地下プールに雨水を動かし始めている。水は放射性廃棄物の水タンクの周りに障壁を満たした台風や豪雨の結果である。

東京電力はタンクに、タービン建屋の地下で最も汚染された雨水を格納されています。しかし台風フランシスコは週末に日本の本土を襲ったに設定して、タンクがいっぱいです。

日本の原子力レギュレータは3地下プールに汚染水を移動し承認した。プールは、約9000トンの総容量を持っている。

東京電力は4月にリークされた同様のモデルの後にプールを使用して停止。ユーティリティは、今ではそれらを使用する他のオプションが、を持っていませんと言います。

ユーティリティはまた、水曜日に現場溝でベータ線を放出する放射能のリットル14万ベクレルを発見したと言います。放射能は、前日以降倍増している。東京電力は、それがタンクに汚染された水を転送してと言います。

2013年10月23日 – 更新20時39 UTC
MARITIME

(画像: JMA )マリン警告(ソース画像をクリック)
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21は250600をRJTD

WARNING 250600 。

VALID 260600警告。

警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。

暴風雨警報。

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1327サンフランシスコ( 1327 ) 965 HPA

28.6N日本国132.5E SEA SOUTHは、北東15ノットの移動。

POSITIONのFAIR 。

MAXは、中心部に近い60ノットの風。

50 OVER KNOTのWINDS 100 kmイースト半円と60マイルの半径

ELSEWHERE 。

30 OVER KNOTのWINDS 210 kmイースト半円と180マイルの半径

ELSEWHERE 。

50マイル半径30.3N 136.7E AT 251800UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

975 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 60ノット。

85マイルの半径32.5N 142.8E AT 260600UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

990 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 45ノット。

EXTENDED見通し。

210マイルの半径36.0N 158.0E AT 270600UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

千HPAは、 MAXは35ノットの風。

温帯LOW BECOMING 。

気象庁。 =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 250600

WARNINGと要約250600 。

VALID 260600警告。

警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。

GALE警告。

LOW 988 HPAを開発

45N ATアリューシャンOF 179W SEA SOUTH EASTは10ノットの移動。

WINDSはLOW南西部の700マイル以内に30〜40ノット半円AND

ELSEWHERE 400マイル。

GALE警告。

LOW 1002 HPAの開発

JAPAN 、北東15ノットを移動する45N 137E SEA AT 。

WINDSはLOW SOUTHEAST OF 600 km以内の30 〜35ノット半円AND

ELSEWHERE 300マイル。

GALE警告。

OVER実勢30〜40 KNOTS北東WINDS TO北風

30N 130E 27N 129E 20N 125E 21N 116E 30N 122E 34Nで囲まWATERS

121E 37N 126E 34N 126E 34N 130E 30N 130E 。

GALE警告。

OVER実勢30 〜35 KNOTS北東WINDS TO北風

WATERSは51N 162E 60N 170E 60N 180E 52N 180E 51N 162Eに囲まれ。

概要。

43N 114E SE 10 KT AT HIGH 1032 HPA 。

55N 148E EAST 10 KT AT HIGH 1026 HPA 。

46N 154E ESE 10 KT AT HIGH 1026 HPA 。

21N 170E WEST AT HIGH 1016 HPAゆっくり。

30N 131E FROM 32N 134E 33N 137E 32N 142Eに対して静止FRONT 。

REMARKS 。

TYPHOON 1328 LEKIMA ( 1328 ) 26.9N 144.4E AT 920 HPA : TROPICAL SEE

CYCLONE警告。

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1327サンフランシスコ( 1327 ) 28.6N 132.5E AT 965 HPA :

熱帯低気圧の警告が表示されます。

気象庁。 =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 0600

WWCI50 BABJ 250600

2:31:11:11:00

BT

PAN PAN =

NAVAREA XI (IOR )のメッセージは、 NMC BEIJINGによって発行された

1015UTC 10月25日2013年= AT

メッセージは= EVERY 06 HOURSに更新されます

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC 10月25 =

VALID 0600UTC 10月を見込んでいます。 26 =

=をWARNNING

STS FRANCISCO 28.8N 133.0E AT 1327 ( 1327 ) 982HPA

ENE 32キロ/ HとMAX WINDS 25M / Sセンターの近くをMOVING

(UP 6.5M TO SEAS ) AND 280KM 30KTS WINDS OF RADIUS

AND 32.7N 143.5E 988HPA AT 260600UTCの見通し

CENTER = NEAR MAX WINDS 23M / S

26.9N 144.4E AT SUPERTY LEKIMA 1328 ( 1328 ) 935HPA

NNE 45KM / HとMAX WINDS 52M /センターの近くのS MOVING

(UP 11.0M TO SEAS ) AND 400キロ30KTS WINDS OF RADIUS

50KTS WINDS OFと半径150kmのANDの見通し

36.7N 150.9E 955HPA MAX WINDS 42M / S AT 260600UTC

CENTER = NEAR

概要=

10から最大16M / Sガスト20M / S SEAS TO N / NE WINDS

黄海、台湾SEA EAST OVER 2.5M AND

バシー海峡と南シナ海の北PART =

14 FROM UP 4.5M TO OVER 22M / S SEAS TO NLYのWINDS

東シナ海北部=

14 FROM UP 3.5M TO OVER 20M / S SEAS TO NEのWINDS

東シナ海と台湾海峡=南部

08 FROM UP 1.8M TO OVER 12M / S SEAS TO NEのWINDS

南シナ海の西PART =

14からUP 23M / S SEAS TO SEA OVER 5.5M TO WINDS

琉球と日本SEA SOUTH OF EAST

AND小笠原諸島OF SEA WEST =

SEA OVER 10KM THAN HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS

日本と琉球SEA EAST OF SOUTH

AND小笠原諸島の海西とアンダマン海

AND SEAシンガポールとスンダ海峡東と

スラウェシ海とラウトマルク=

FORECAST =

07 FROM 1.5M UP 12M ​​/ S SEAS TO BACK NLYはWLY WINDS

渤海AND渤海STRAIT = OVER

10〜 16M / Sガスト20M / S SEASまでN / NW WINDS

黄海や韓国海峡JAPAN OVER 2.5M

SEA =

14からS / 25M SEAS TO 20M / Sガスト21〜 N / A NE WINDS

UP東シナ海や台湾海峡の3.5M TO

と台湾の海東とバシー海峡=

12 FROM UP 16M / SのSEAS TO OVER 2.5M TO NEのWINDS

南シナ海北東部=

08 FROM UP 1.5M TO OVER 12M / S SEAS TO NEのWINDS

西と南シナ海MID- EAST PARTS =

18から最大24M / Sガスト25M / S SEAS TO WINDS

日本海南部とSEA EAST OF OVER 5.5M

琉球諸島と小笠原諸島OF SEA WEST =

END

生きるか死ぬかの決定のためにこのサイト上のすべての情報を使用しないでください。すべての情報は、公式のソースへの補足として意図されています。親切な地元の警告、勧告や速報のためにあなたの国の公式の気象機関/政府Webサイトを参照してください。

Japan: Typhoon 25W WIPHA 151700Z nr 32.3N 138.4E, moving NE at 30 knots (JMA) – 151013 2115z

Typhoon Wipha

Large and powerful Category 1 Typhoon Wipha bearing down on Japan

Level 1 Tornado risk (see below)

(Scroll down for Japanese translation) (日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

All Tropical Cyclones

(Image: JMA) TC track (Click image for source)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

(Image: JMA) Current warnings (Click image for source)

TY 1326 (WIPHA)
Issued at 17:45 UTC, 15 October 2013

<Analyses at 15/17 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N32°20′(32.3°)
E138°25′(138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55km/h(30kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more E330km(180NM)
W280km(150NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E750km(400NM)
W600km(325NM)
<Estimate for 15/18 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N32°40′(32.7°)
E138°50′(138.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55km/h(30kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more E330km(180NM)
W280km(150NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E750km(400NM)
W600km(325NM)
<Forecast for 16/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N38°05′(38.1°)
E143°20′(143.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 75km/h(40kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area E480km(260NM)
W430km(230NM)
<Forecast for 16/15 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44°55′(44.9°)
E150°25′(150.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 85km/h(45kt)
Central pressure 968hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 240km(130NM)
Storm warning area E700km(375NM)
W650km(350NM)

Japan Radar

(Image: JMA) Japan Radar – Precipitation (Click image for source)

(Image: JMA) Japan Radar – TORNADO Probability (Click image for source)

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2513.gif

(Image: JTWC) TC Warning Graphic (Click image for source)

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (WIPHA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 30.5N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 040 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.5N 136.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 36.7N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 45 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 43.7N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 32.1N 137.8E.
TYPHOON 25W (WIPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 24W (NARI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Oct, 2013 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)

 

Typhoon WIPHA (25W) currently located near 32.7 N 138.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Japan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
probability for TS is 80% currently
Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Other Reports

Dangerous Typhoon Wipha Drenching Japan

By Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:45 PM GMT on October 15, 2013

“Large and powerful Category 1 Typhoon Wipha is bearing down on Japan as the storm races northeast at 28 mph.

Wipha is likely to be the strongest typhoon to hit Japan since Typhoon Tokage of October 2004, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Wipha is merging with a cold front and undergoing the transition to an extratropical storm–the same process Hurricane Sandy underwent as it approached landfall in October 2012. While Typhoon Wipha is not as powerful as Sandy, it does have a huge area of winds in excess of 50 knots (57.5 mph), which extend out 130 miles to the left of the center. Since the center of Wipha is expected to graze the southern coast of Japan today, and the storm will only weaken slightly, a 100-mile-wide swath of Japan will see damaging winds of 50 knots, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. About a 30 mile-wide swath of Japan will experience winds of 75 mph (hurricane force.) Tokyo will be right at the edge of the hurricane-force wind swath. With many trees still in leaf, these winds will cause widespread tree damage and downed power lines. The counter-clockwise flow of moist, tropical air around the center of Wipha is meeting up with the cold front currently over Japan. This is generating torrential rains over large portions of the country, as the moist air is forced upwards over the cold front, making the air expand and cool, condensing its copious moisture. Radar precipitation estimates show that rainfall rates of 1 – 2″ per hour were occurring near Tokyo today. Heavy rains of 4 – 8″ capable of causing damaging flooding will be widespread over Japan, including over the Fukushima nuclear site, where rainfall from Typhoon Man-Yi on September 16 complicated clean-up efforts of the reactors damaged by the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

Japan may not be all done with typhoons this month, as both the GFS and European models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 93W) east of the Philippines will develop into a tropical storm late this week, which will then head northwest and threaten Japan by next Wednesday, October 23.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Wipha approaching Japan, taken at approximately 04:25 UTC on October 15, 2013. At the time, Wipha was a Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

” – Weather Underground

MARITIME

(Image: JMA) Marine Warnings (Click image for source)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP23 RJTD 151800
WARNING 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1326 WIPHA (1326) 955 HPA
AT 32.7N 138.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 40.2N 145.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
964 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 46.6N 153.1E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
968 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 151800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 996 HPA
AT 54N 153E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER SEA OF JAPAN.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER EAST CHINA SEA.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 60N 170E 60N 180E 46N 180E 50N 170E 60N 170E.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 13.6N 147.2E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 14.4N 142.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 15N 105E WEST 15 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 37N 115E ESE 15 KT.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 39N 170E EAST 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 139E TO 37N 142E 40N 149E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1326 WIPHA (1326) 955 HPA AT 32.7N 138.9E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Japanese (Translated by Google)

日本:30ノット( JMA )でNEを移動する台風25W WIPHA 151700Z NR 32.3N 138.4E 、 – 151013 2115z

台風Wipha
大規模かつ強力なカテゴリー1台風Wiphaは日本を下にベアリング

レベル1トルネードリスク(下記参照)

(日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン) (日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン)

(画像: wunderground.com ) 5日間の予報(ソース画像をクリック)

(画像: wunderground.com )衛星(ソース画像をクリック)

気象庁

すべての熱帯サイクロン
(画像: JMA ) TCトラック(ソース画像をクリック)

現在有効な警告/勧告

(画像: JMA )現在の警告(ソース画像をクリック)

TY 1326 ( WIPHA )
午後5時45分UTC 、 2013年10月15日に発行される
17分の15 UTC>で<Analyses
大規模
強い強度
中心位置N32 °20 ‘ (32.3 °)
E138 °25 ‘ ( 138.4 °)
動きNE毎時55キロ( 30カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧955hPa
中央35メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 70カラット)
最大突風スピード50メートル/秒( 100カラット)
50カラット風の面積以上E330km ( 180nm以下)
W280km ( 150nmの)
30カラット風の面積以上E750km ( 400nmの)
W600km ( 325NM )
18分の15 UTC>ため<Estimate
大規模
強い強度
中心位置N32 °40 ‘ (32.7 °)
E138 °50 ‘ ( 138.8 °)
動きNE毎時55キロ( 30カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧955hPa
中央35メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 70カラット)
最大突風スピード50メートル/秒( 100カラット)
50カラット風の面積以上E330km ( 180nm以下)
W280km ( 150nmの)
30カラット風の面積以上E750km ( 400nmの)
W600km ( 325NM )
16/03 UTC>ため<Forecast
強い強度
確率サークルN38 ° 05 ‘の中心位置(38.1 °)
E143 °20 ‘ ( 143.3 °)
動きNE毎時75キロ( 40カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧960hPa
中央35メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 70カラット)
最大突風スピード50メートル/秒( 100カラット)
確率160キロの円の半径( 85NM )
ストーム警告エリアE480km ( 260nmの)
W430km ( 230NM )
15分の16 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
LOW
確率サークルN44の中心位置°55 ‘ ( 44.9 °)
E150 °25 ‘ ( 150.4 °)
動きNE毎時85キロ( 45カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧968hPa
最大持続風速35メートル/秒( 65カラット)
最大突風スピード50メートル/秒( 95カラット)
確率240キロの円の半径( 130nmプロセス)
ストーム警告エリアE700km (約375nm )
W650km ( 350nmの)
日本レーダー

(画像: JMA )日本レーダー – 降水量(ソース画像をクリック)

(画像: JMA )は、日本のレーダー – TORNADO確率(ソース画像をクリック)

合同台風警報センター( JTWC )


(画像: JTWC ) TC警告グラフィック(ソースの画像をクリック)

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN真珠湾HI / /
SUBJ /熱帯低気圧の警告/ /
RMKS /
1 。 TYPHOON 25W ( WIPHA )警告NR 021
NORTHWESTPAC IN 02 ACTIVE熱帯低気圧
MAXはONE- MINUTE平均に基づいてWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

警告POSITION :
151200Z — NEAR 30.5N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 25 KTS AT 040 DEGREES
020 NM以内の正確な位置
POSITIONは、衛星のそば中心を基準に
PRESENT WIND配分:
075 KT 、突風090 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
温帯BECOMING
064 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
034 KTのWINDS OF RADIUS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
30.5N 136.5E : POSITを繰り返す

予測:
AT VALID 12時間:
160000Z — 36.7N 141.6E
065 KT 、突風080 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
温帯
24人事POSITへのベクトル: 035 DEG / 45 KTS

AT VALID 24時間:
161200Z — 43.7N 149.1E
055 KT 、突風070 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
温帯

備考:
32.1N 137.8E NEAR 151500Z POSITION 。
LOCATED TYPHOON 25W ( WIPHA ) 、約345ナノメートルの南南西
横須賀、日本は過去OVER 25ノットで北東追跡して
六時間。 151200Zで最大有義波高は33フィートです。
152100Z 、 160300Z AND 160900Z AT NEXT警告。 TROPICALを参照してください
SIX – HOURLY更新用のSTORM 24W ( NARI )警告( WTPN32 PGTW ) 。 / /
NNNN
TSR logoNW太平洋: 10月15日に発行したストームの警告、 2013夜06時00分GMT (最終警告)

台風WIPHA ( 25W )は、現在32.7の近くにN 138.9 Eが与えられたリードタイム( s)で、次の可能性(複数可)に土地を打つと予測されている:

レッドアラート国(s)または州( S)
日本
CAT 1の確率以上では、12時間以内に70%である
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%

イエローアラート市(s)とタウン(S)
いわき(37.0 N 、 140.8 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に100%
東京( 35.7 N 、 139.8 E )
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%
静岡(35.0 N 、 138.5 E )
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%
宮古( 39.7 N 、 141.9 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に100%
仙台市( 38.3 N 、 140.9 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に100%
名古屋( 35.2 N 、 136.9 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に95%で
釧路( 43.0 N 、 144.4 E )
TSのための確率は約24時間で85%
新潟( 37.8 N 、 139.2 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に80%
塩野 – 美咲( 33.5 N 、 135.8 E )
TSのための確率は現在80%である
坂田(39.0 N 、 140.0 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に65%である

注意してください
レッドアラートは、 (重症) CAT 1または% 31 〜100 %の確率に上です。
イエローアラート(高架) CAT 1以上〜10 %と30 %の確率、又はTSの間に50%以上の確率である。
CAT 1は、少なくとも毎時74マイルの台風の強さの風、毎時119キロまたは64ノット1分間の持続を意味している。
TSは、少なくとも毎時39マイルの熱帯性低気圧の強さの風を意味し、毎時63キロまたは34ノット1分持続。

グラフィカルな予測情報と詳細についてhttp://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/をご覧くださ&#12356;

ストームトラッカー地図
その他のレポート
危ない台風Wipha灌注日本

ジェフマスターズ博士、 2013年10月15日に15:45 GMTによって
“大型で強力なカテゴリー1台風Wipha 28 MPHで北東嵐レースとして日本にダウン軸受である。

Wiphaは、気象庁によると、 2004年10月の台風蜥蜴以来、日本をヒットする最強台風である可能性が高い。

Wiphaは寒冷前線と合併し、温帯嵐への移行を受けている – それは2012年10月上陸に近づいたのと同じプロセスハリケーンサンディは受けた。台風Wiphaはサンディのように強力ではないですが、それは中央の左側に130マイルを引き出さ50ノット(毎時57.5マイル)を超える風の巨大な面積を持っていません。 Wiphaの中心が現在の日本の南岸を放牧し、嵐はわずかに弱体化すると予想されているので、日本の100マイルの広い観測幅は、気象庁によると、 50ノットの有害な風を見ることができます。日本の30マイル幅の帯状については、毎時75マイル(ハリケーン力。 )東京は、右ハリケーン力の風の観測幅の端になるの風を経験するでしょう。まだ葉に多くの木によると、これらの風が広まっ木の損傷やダウンした電力線が発生します。 Wiphaの中心の周りに湿った、熱帯の空気の反時計回りの流れは、現在全国の寒冷前線にまで満たしている。湿った空気が寒冷前線にわたって上向きに強制されるので、これは空気が膨張し、冷却、その豊富な水分を凝縮すること、国の大部分にわたって集中豪雨が発生している。 2 “時間当たり今日東京の近くで発生した4の豪雨を – – 8″レーダー降水量の見積もりは1の降雨率があることを示す損傷洪水を引き起こすことができるには含めて、全国広範なる福島原子力サイト上に、どこに台風マンから降雨9月イー2011年3月の地震と津波によって損傷原子炉の16複雑なクリーンアップの努力。

GFSと欧州モデルの両方が邪魔天候( 93Wを投資) 、フィリピンの東の面積が、後半に今週熱帯暴風雨に発展するその後北西を率いるれるとことを予測しているように、日本は、今月の台風で行われたすべてのできない場合がありますnext 10月23日(水曜日) 、日本を脅かす。

図1を参照。台風WiphaのMODIS衛星画像では、 2013年10月15日に約4時25 UTCに取られ、日本を、近づいています。当時、 Wiphaは毎時90マイルの風でカテゴリー1の嵐だった。画像クレジット: NASA 。

” – キャンペーン応募はこちら
MARITIME

(画像: JMA )マリン警告(ソース画像をクリック)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP23は151800をRJTD
WARNING 151800 。
VALID 161800警告。
警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。
台風警報。
TYPHOON 1326 WIPHA ( 1326 ) 955 HPA
32.7N日本国138.9E SEA SOUTHは、北東30ノットMOVING 。
良いポジション。
MAXは、中心部に近い70ノットの風。
50 OVER KNOTのWINDSの半径は180 kmイースト半円AND 150マイル
ELSEWHERE 。
30 OVER KNOTのWINDSの半径は500 kmイースト半円AND 325マイル
ELSEWHERE 。
85マイルの半径40.2N 145.4E AT 160600UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
964 HPA 、MAXは65ノットの風。
温帯LOW BECOMING 。
130マイルの半径46.6N 153.1E AT 161800UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
968 HPA 、 MAX WINDS 65ノット。
温帯LOW BECOMING 。

気象庁。 =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 151800
WARNINGと要約151800 。
VALID 161800警告。
警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。
GALE警告。
開発した低996 HPA
オホーツクはEAST 15ノットを移動54N 153Eの海で。
LOWの400マイル以内WINDSは、30〜 45ノット。
GALE警告。
北東の風が30〜45ノット日本海OVER優勢。
GALE警告。
北風は、 30 〜35ノット東シナ海OVER優勢。
GALE警告。
OVER実勢30 〜35 KNOTS北西風TO北風
WATERSは60N 170E 60N 180E 46N 180E 50N 170E 60N 170Eに囲まれ。
GALE警告。
熱帯低気圧1004 HPA
WEST 12ノットMOVING 13.6N 147.2EマリアナAT 。
POSITIONのFAIR 。
MAXは、中心部に近い30ノットの風。
EXPECTED MAXのWINDS NEXT 24時間の中心部に近い35ノット。
120マイルの半径14.4N 142.6E AT 161800UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
概要。
15N 105E WEST 15 KT AT熱帯低気圧千HPA 。
37N 115E ESE 15 KT AT HIGH 1028 HPA 。
39N 170E EAST 15 KT AT HIGH 1032 HPA 。
35N 139E FROM 37N 142E 40N 149Eに対して静止FRONT 。
REMARKS 。
TYPHOON 1326 WIPHA ( 1326 ) 32.7N 138.9E AT 955 HPAは: TROPICAL SEE
CYCLONE警告。

気象庁。 =

Japan/South Korea: STS(TS-SS) Danas 081500Z near 35.2N 130.8E , moving NE at 23 knots (JTWC) between Korea and Kyushu – 081013 1725z

Severe Tropical Storm (JMA)/Tropical Storm (JTWC)

DANAS

TROPICAL STORM 23W (DANAS) WARNING NR 021 (FINAL WARNING)
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 23W (JTWC)

Danas continues to race north east today over Tsushima island in between Korea and Kyushu

Westernpacificweather.com

(Scroll down for Japanese and Korean translations) (日本語と韓国語の翻訳のためにスクロールダウン)(일본과 한국 번역을 위해 아래로 스크롤)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

(Image: JMA)

STS 1324 (DANAS)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 8 October 2013

<Analyses at 08/15 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N3455′(34.9)
E13025′(130.4)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW220km(120NM)
<Estimate for 08/16 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N3505′(35.1)
E13040′(130.7)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 08/21 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N3625′(36.4)
E13230′(132.5)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45km/h(23kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
<Forecast for 09/03 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N3800′(38.0)
E13510′(135.2)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45km/h(25kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 09/09 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N3930′(39.5)
E13830′(138.5)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 50km/h(28kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 150km(80NM)
<Forecast for 09/15 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N4055′(40.9)
E14235′(142.6)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 60km/h(32kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 240km(130NM)

Unit:

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

(Image: JMA) Current Warnings (Click image for source)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2313.gif

(Image: JTWC) TC track (Click image for source)

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (DANAS) WARNING NR 021 (FINAL WARNING)
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 23W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 34.5N 129.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 040 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.5N 129.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 37.3N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 28 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 40.0N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 34 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 42.5N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 35.2N 130.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM NORTH OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TS 23W
HAS ACCELERATED TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. RADAR
IMAGERY FROM KYUSHU INDICATES THE PASSAGE OF THE LLCC OVER TSUSHIMA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED, UNFAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND DRY COOL AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE HAVE RAPIDLY WEAKENED THE SYSTEM. DECREASING SST
VALUES (22 TO 23 CELSIUS) AND VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (40
PLUS KNOTS) WILL LEAD TO A COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
12. BASED ON THE RECENT ACCELERATION OF THE LLCC AND INCREASINGLY
HARSH ENVIRONMENT, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 081200Z IS 40 FEET.//
NNNN

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 Oct, 2013 18:00 GMT

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Oct, 2013 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm DANAS (23W) currently located near 34.5 N 129.6 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Japan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
South Korea
probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently
Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
probability for TS is 80% currently
Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Other Reports

Typhoon Danas impacts Japan and S. Korea. Evening Update

Published on October 8, 2013 by // Westernpacificweather.com

Radar Kyushu

Typhoon Danas continues to race north east today over Tsushima island in between Korea and Kyushu.

Max winds recorded thus far have been gust up to 126kph in Nagasaki Prefecture. In the Kii Peninsula farther to the east but still being impacted by moisture inflow from the south rain reports have been recorded over 100mm in just a three hour span.

The good news is the worst of the weather is still off shore and Danas has picked up the pace even faster than it was going before. This means conditions will rapidly improve behind the storm for western Japan and South Korea through the evening hours.

Numerous flights have been cancelled across Western Japan.

For the Military in Sasebo TCCOR1 is still in place. For those in Iwakuni you will likely get TS strength winds but unless there is an intense squall line I do not anticipate winds above 50kts for there.

Damage in Nagasaki following Danas

Damage in Nagasaki following Danas

The main threat from Danas will continue to be the heavy rainfall. Over 200mm in some areas is forecast along the Sea of Japan coastline of Kyushu and Honshu through Wednesday morning. This could result in the risk of flooding and landslides.

On the flip side of this storm, southerly winds have ushered in Record breaking temperatures for the month of October in much of Kyushu. The Mercury hitting the low 30s in many areas.

In Northern Honshu the storm roll over head through Wednesday evening. Winds will be gusting over Tropical Storm Strength for many of those in coastal areas of northern Honshu. Heavy flooding rains will also be a threat in Aomori extending south through Tohoku.

JMA TRACK

Tokyo should miss the worst of the weather but a passing shower due to the instability in the atmosphere is not completely out of the question.

Key thing to always remember as far as safety. Always follow the warnings from your local official agency. And if it looks dangerous outside, your senses are probably correct. Always play it safe.

After Danas hits Japan it will run north to the northern pacific as a Significant extra-tropical low.

Westernpacificweather.com

(Video credit: Westernpacificweather.com)

MARITIME

(Image: JMA) Marine Warnings (Click image for source)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1324 DANAS (1324) 985 HPA
AT 34.9N 130.4E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 38.0N 135.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 40.9N 142.6E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1200

WWJP25 RJTD 081200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 976 HPA
AT 55N 155E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING EAST 20 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
500 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 55N 174E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 130
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 15.0N 133.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 15.1N 131.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 12.7N 150.9E TRUKS ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 13.5N 149.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 47N 153E 52N 158E
48N 167E 44N 162E 42N 155E 47N 153E.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 35N 117E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 43N 133E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 39N 169E EAST 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 129E TO 37N 134E 38N 142E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1324 DANAS (1324) 980 HPA AT 34.5N 129.5E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Japanese (Translated by Google)

日本/韓国:重度の熱帯性低気圧(TS- SS) Danas
081500Z 130.8E 35.2N近く、
081013 1725z – 韓国と九州の間に位置する23ノット( JTWC )でNEを移動

重度の熱帯性低気圧( JMA ) /トロピカルストーム( JTWC )
DANAS

TROPICAL STORM 23W ( DANAS )警告NR 021 ( FINAL WARNING )
TYPHOON 23W ( JTWC )ダウングレード

” Danas韓国と九州の間にある対馬島にわたって今日北東レースを続けて”

Westernpacificweather.com

(日本語と韓国語の翻訳のためにスクロールダウン) (日本語と韓国語の翻訳のためにスクロールダウン) ( 일본과한국번역을위해아래로스크롤 )

(画像: wunderground.com )衛星(ソース画像をクリック)

(画像: wunderground.com ) 5日間の予報(ソース画像をクリック)

気象庁

(画像: JMA )
STS 1324 ( DANAS )
午前15時45分UTC 、 2013年10月8日に発行される
8月15日UTC>で<Analyses
1:43 –
強度 –
中心位置N34 55 ‘ (34.9 )
E130 25 ‘ ( 130.4 )
動きNE毎時35キロ( 20カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧985hPa
中央25メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 50カラット)
最大突風スピード35メートル/秒( 70カラット)
30カラット風の面積以上NE280km ( 150nmの)
SW220km ( 120nmの)
8月16日UTC>ため<Estimate
1:43 –
強度 –
中心位置N35 05 ‘ ( 35.1 )
E130 40 ‘ ( 130.7 )
動きNE毎時35キロ( 20カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧985hPa
中央25メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 50カラット)
最大突風スピード35メートル/秒( 70カラット)
30カラット風の面積以上NE280km ( 150nmの)
SW220km ( 120nmの)
8月21日UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
確率サークルN36の中心位置25 ‘ ( 36.4 )
E132 30 ‘ ( 132.5 )
動きNE毎時45キロ( 23カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧990hPa
中央25メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 50カラット)
最大突風スピード35メートル/秒( 70カラット)
確率サークル60キロの半径( 30nmの)
9月3日UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
確率円の中心位置N38 00 ‘( 38.0 )
E135 10 ‘ ( 135.2 )
動きNE毎時45キロ( 25カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧992hPa
中央23メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 45カラット)
最大突風スピード35メートル/秒( 65カラット)
確率サークル90キロの半径( 50NM )
9月9日UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
LOW
確率サークルN39 30 ‘の中心位置( 39.5 )
E138 30 ‘ ( 138.5 )
動きENE毎時50キロ( 28カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧996hPa
最大持続風速20メートル/秒( 40カラット)
最大突風スピード30メートル/秒( 60カラット)
確率150キロの円の半径( 80nmの)
9月15日UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
LOW
確率サークルN40 55 ‘ ( 40.9 )の中心位置
E142 35 ‘ ( 142.6 )
動きENE毎時60キロ( 32カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧1000hPa
最大持続風速18メートル/秒( 35カラット)
最大突風スピード25メートル/秒( 50カラット)
確率240キロの円の半径( 130nmプロセス)

単位:
現在有効な警告/勧告

(画像: JMA )現在の警告(ソース画像をクリック)
合同台風警報センター( JTWC )

(画像: JTWC ) TCトラック(ソース画像をクリック)

Google Earthのグラフィックオーバーレイ

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN真珠湾HI / /
SUBJ /熱帯低気圧の警告/ /
RMKS /
1 。 TROPICAL STORM 23W ( DANAS )警告NR 021 ( FINAL WARNING )
TYPHOON 23Wダウングレード
NORTHWESTPAC IN 01 ACTIVE熱帯低気圧
MAXはONE- MINUTE平均に基づいてWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

警告POSITION :
081200Z — NEAR 34.5N 129.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 040 DEGREES 23 KTS AT
030 NM以内の正確な位置
POSITIONは、衛星のそば中心を基準に
PRESENT WIND配分:
055 KT 、突風070 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
温帯BECOMING
050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
34.5N 129.6E : POSITを繰り返す

予測:
AT VALID 12時間:
090000Z — 37.3N 134.4E
040 KT 、突風050 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
温帯
24人事POSITへのベクトル: 060 DEG / 28 KTS

AT VALID 24時間:
091200Z — 40.0N 140.6E
MAX持続WINDS – 030 KT 、突風040 KT
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
温帯
36人事POSITへのベクトル: 065 DEG / 34 KTS

VALID AT 36時間:
100000Z — 42.5N 148.9E
020 KT 、突風030 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
温帯

備考:
35.2N 130.8E NEAR 081500Z POSITION 。
TROPICAL STORM 23W ( DANAS )は、約84 NM NORTH OF LOCATED
SASEBO 、日本は、過去OVER 23ノットで北東追跡して
六時間。 ANIMATED増強赤外衛星画像は、TS 23Wを示しています
過去数時間にわたって、北東に加速しています。 RADAR
九州画像は津島OVER LLCCの経過を示している
トラックスピードの増加との関連、不利な海で
表面温度(SST )と、からの乾燥冷気同調
傾圧ZONEは急速SYSTEMを弱めました。 SSTを減少
VALUES( CELSIUS 22 〜23) 、非常に強い鉛直風せん断( 40
PLUS )結び目はTAU BY COMPLETE EXTRA – TROPICAL TRANSITIONにつながる
12 。 LLCC最近の加速度から、ますますBASED
過酷な環境では、これは、このシステムでFINAL WARNING IS
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN真珠湾HI 。 SYSTEMが密接BE WILL
再生の兆候を監視した。最大有義波高
081200Z AT 40 FEETです。 / /
NNNN
TSR logoNW太平洋: 10月7日に発行される嵐の警告、 2013年18時00 GMT

北西太平洋: 10月8日に発行される嵐の警告、 2013 12:00 GMT (最終警告)

現在34.5 N 129.6 Eの近くに位置し、トロピカルストームDANAS ( 23W )は、与えられたリードタイム( s)で、次の可能性(複数可)に土地を打つと予測されている:

レッドアラート国(s)または州( S)
日本
CAT 1の確率以上は、現在35%である
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%

イエローアラートカントリー(s)または州( S)
韓国
TSのための確率は現在95%で
イエローアラート市(s)とタウン(S)
釜山( 35.2 N 、 129.1 E )
TSのための確率は現在95%で
福岡(33.6 N 、 130.4 E )
TSのための確率は現在90%である
松江(35.4 N 、 133.0 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に85%
佐賀(33.3 N 、 130.3 E )
TSのための確率は現在80%である
広島( 34.4 N 、 132.4 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に75%である
長崎(32.8 N 、 129.9 E )
TSのための確率は現在55%である

注意してください
レッドアラートは、 (重症) CAT 1または% 31 〜100 %の確率に上です。
イエローアラート(高架) CAT 1以上〜10 %と30 %の確率、又はTSの間に50%以上の確率である。
CAT 1は、少なくとも毎時74マイルの台風の強さの風、毎時119キロまたは64ノット1分間の持続を意味している。
TSは、少なくとも毎時39マイルの熱帯性低気圧の強さの風を意味し、毎時63キロまたは34ノット1分持続。

グラフィカルな予測情報と詳細についてhttp://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/をご覧くださ&#12356;
その他のレポート
台風Danasは、日本と韓国に影響を与えます。イブニングアップデート

robspeta / / Westernpacificweather.comによって2013年10月8日に公開

レーダー九州

“台風Danas韓国と九州の間にある対馬島にわたって今日北東レースをし続けています。

これまで記録された最大風は長崎県で126kphまで突風まできました。紀伊半島では遠く東にそれでも南雨レポートからの水分流入による影響を受けているが、わずか3時間のスパンで100ミリメートル以上の記録されている。

良いニュースは、天気の最悪であることは岸からまだあるとDanasも速く、それは前に起こっていたよりもペースをピックアップしています。これは、条件が急速に夜の時間を通して、西日本と韓国のための嵐の背後に向上することを意味します。

多数の便は西日本全体にキャンセルされた。

佐世保TCCOR1の軍事のための場所のままです。岩国のそれらのためのおそらくTS強度風を取得しますが、激しいスコールラインがない限り、私はそこのため50kts上記の風を予想していない。

長崎以下Danasの被害

長崎以下Danasの被害

Danasからの主な脅威は大雨であり続けるだろう。 200ミリメートル以上一部の地域では水曜日の朝を通じて、九州と本州の日本海岸線の海に沿って予測されています。これは、洪水や地滑りの危険性につながる可能性があります。

この嵐のフリップ側では、南風、九州の多くで、10月の月の記録破りの温度が幕を開けました。水銀は多くの分野で低い30を打つ。

水曜日の夜を通して頭の上北部本州で嵐がロール。風が本州北部の沿岸地域の人々の多くは熱帯性低気圧の強さ以上の突風されます。大洪水の雨も東北を通して南を延長青森の脅威となります。

JMAトラック

東京の天気の最悪を逃すべきであるが、大気中の不安定性のために渡すシャワーは問題外完全にではありません。

主なものは、いつものように遠くに安全として覚えておく。必ず最寄りの公式機関からの警告に従ってください。それは危険な外に見えるなら、あなたの感覚はおそらく正しいです。常に安全なそれを再生する。

Danasヒット日本の後、それは重要な余分な熱帯低として北太平洋北部に実行されます。

” – Westernpacificweather.com

(ビデオクレジット: Westernpacificweather.com )
MARITIME

(画像: JMA )マリン警告(ソース画像をクリック)
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32は081500をRJTD
WARNING 081500 。
VALID 091500警告。
暴風雨警報。
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1324 DANAS ( 1324 ) 985 HPA
JAPAN 、北東20ノットを移動34.9N 130.4E SEA AT 。
良いポジション。
MAXは、中心部に近い50ノットの風。
30 OVER KNOTのWINDSの半径は150から北東に13km離れた半円AND 120
ELSEWHERE MILES 。
50マイル半径38.0N 135.2E AT 090300UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
992 HPA 、 MAXのWINDS CENTER NEAR 45ノット。
130マイルの半径40.9N 142.6E AT 091500UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
千HPAは、 MAXは35ノットの風。
温帯LOW BECOMING 。

気象庁。 =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1200

WWJP25 RJTD 081200
WARNINGと要約081200 。
VALID 091200警告。
警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。
暴風雨警報。
LOW 976 HPAを開発
オホーツクはEAST 20ノットを移動55N 155Eの海で。
LOW SOUTHEAST OF 900マイル以内WINDS 30〜50ノット半円AND
ELSEWHERE 500マイル。
130の不確実性55N 174E AT 091200UTCの予想POSITION
MILES RADIUS 。
GALE警告。
熱帯低気圧1004 HPA
ALMOST STATIONARYフィリピンOF 15.0N 133.5E SEA EAST AT 。
POORを配置します。
MAXは30ノットの風。
EXPECTED MAXのWINDS NEXT 24時間の中心部に近い35ノット。
120マイルの半径15.1N 131.7E AT 091200UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
GALE警告。
熱帯低気圧1004 HPA
ALMOST STATIONARY 12.7N 150.9E TRUKS AT 。
POORを配置します。
MAXは30ノットの風。
EXPECTED MAXのWINDS NEXT 24時間の中心部に近い35ノット。
120マイルの半径13.5N 149.2E AT 091200UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
警告。
濃霧は47N 153E 52N 158Eに囲まれWATERS OVER LOCALLY OBSERVED
48N 167E 44N 162E 42N 155E 47N 153E 。
概要。
35N 117E EAST 10 KT AT HIGH 1018 HPA 。
43N 133E EAST 10 KT AT HIGH 1018 HPA 。
39N 169E EAST 15 KT AT HIGH 1026 HPA 。
35N 129E FROM 37N 134E 38N 142Eに対して静止FRONT 。
REMARKS 。
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1324 DANAS ( 1324 ) 34.5N 129.5E AT 980 HPAは: SEE
熱帯低気圧の警告。

気象庁。 =

Korean (Translated by Google)

일본 / 한국 : 심각한 열대 폭풍 (TS -SS ) Danas
081500Z 130.8E 35.2N 근처
081013 1725z – 한국과 규슈 사이에 위치한 23 노트 ( JTWC ) 에서 NE 이동

심한 열대 폭풍 ( JMA ) / 열대 폭풍우 ( JTWC )
DANAS

열대 폭풍우 23W ( DANAS ) 경고 NR 021 ( 마지막 경고 )
TYPHOON 23W ( JTWC ) 다운 그레이드

” Danas 한국과 규슈 사이 에 쓰시마 섬 에 오늘 북쪽 동쪽 을 경주 하고 있습니다 ”

Westernpacificweather.com

( 일본과 한국 번역을 위해 아래로 스크롤 ) (日本語 と 韓国 語 の 翻訳 の ため に スクロール ダウン) ( 일본과 한국 번역을 위해 아래로 스크롤 )

( 이미지 : wunderground.com ) 위성 ( 소스 이미지를 클릭 )

( 이미지 : wunderground.com ) 5 일 예보 ( 소스 이미지를 클릭 )

일본 기상청

( 이미지 : JMA )
STS 1324 ( DANAS )
세계 협정시 15시 45분 년 10 월 8 일 는 2013 발행
8월 15일 UTC> 에서 <Analyses
규모 –
강도 –
중앙 위치 N34 55 ‘ (34.9 )
E130 25 ‘ ( 130.4 ​​)
운동 NE 35kmh ( 20캐럿 ) 의 방향과 속도
중앙 압력 985hPa
중앙 25m / s의 근처 최대 풍속 ( 50캐럿 )
최대 돌풍 속도 35m / s의 ( 70캐럿 )
30캐럿 바람 의 영역 이상 NE280km ( 150NM )
SW220km ( 120NM )
8월 16일 UTC> 에 대한 <Estimate
규모 –
강도 –
중앙 위치 N35 05 ‘ ( 35.1 )
E130 40 ‘ ( 130.7 )
운동 NE 35kmh ( 20캐럿 ) 의 방향과 속도
중앙 압력 985hPa
중앙 25m / s의 근처 최대 풍속 ( 50캐럿 )
최대 돌풍 속도 35m / s의 ( 70캐럿 )
30캐럿 바람 의 영역 이상 NE280km ( 150NM )
SW220km ( 120NM )
8월 21일 UTC> 에 대한 <Forecast
강도 –
확률 원형 N36 의 중심 위치 25 ‘ ( 36.4 )
E132 30 ‘ ( 132.5 )
운동 NE 45kmh ( 23캐럿 ) 의 방향과 속도
중앙 압력 990hPa
중앙 25m / s의 근처 최대 풍속 ( 50캐럿 )
최대 돌풍 속도 35m / s의 ( 70캐럿 )
확률 원형 60km 반경 ( 30 나노 )
9월 3일 UTC> 에 대한 <Forecast
강도 –
확률이 원의 중심 위치 N38 00 ‘ ( 38.0 )
E135 10 ‘ ( 135.2 )
운동 NE 45kmh ( 25캐럿 ) 의 방향과 속도
중앙 압력 992hPa
중앙 23m / s의 근처 최대 풍속 ( 45캐럿 )
최대 돌풍 속도 35m / s의 ( 65캐럿 )
확률 원형 90km 반경 ( 50NM )
9월 9일 UTC> 에 대한 <Forecast
강도 –
LOW
확률 원형 N39 30 ‘ 의 중심 위치 ( 39.5 )
E138 30 ‘ ( 138.5 )
운동 ENE 50kmh ( 28캐럿 ) 의 방향과 속도
중앙 압력 996hPa
최대 지속 풍속 20m / s의 ( 40캐럿 )
최대 돌풍 속도 30m / s의 ( 60캐럿 )
확률 원형 150km 의 반경 ( 80 나노 )
9월 15일 UTC> 에 대한 <Forecast
강도 –
LOW
확률 원형 N40 55 ‘ ( 40.9 ) 의 중심 위치
E142 35 ‘ ( 142.6 )
운동 ENE 60kmh ( 32캐럿 ) 의 방향과 속도
중앙 압력 1000hPa
최대 지속 풍속 18m / s의 ( 35캐럿 )
최대 돌풍 속도 25m / s의 ( 50캐럿 )
확률 원형 240km 의 반경 ( 0.13 )

단위 :
현재 유효한 경고 / 권고

( 이미지 : JMA ) 현재 경고 ( 소스 이미지를 클릭 )
합동 태풍 경보 센터 ( JTWC )

( 이미지 : JTWC ) TC 트랙 ( 소스 이미지를 클릭 )

구글 어스 그래픽 오버레이

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT 태풍 WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI / /
피사체 / TROPICAL CYCLONE 경고 / /
RMKS /
1 . 열대 폭풍우 23W ( DANAS ) 경고 NR 021 ( 마지막 경고 )
TYPHOON 23W 다운 그레이드
NORTHWESTPAC 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX 는 1 분 평균적인 바람을 지속
OPEN 물 위에 VALID 바람 반지름 만

경고 위치 :
081200Z — NEAR 34.5N 129.6E
운동 지난 6 시간 – 040 DEGREES 23 KTS AT
030 NM 내에서 정확한 위치
위치는 위성 에 의해 위치 CENTER 근거에
PRESENT 바람 배급 :
055 KT , 돌풍 070 KT – MAX 는 바람을 지속
OPEN 물 위에 VALID 바람 반지름 만
온대 되고
050 KT 바람의 RADIUS – 050 NM 노스 이스트 QUADRANT
050 NM 동남 QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
034 KT 바람의 RADIUS – 090 NM 노스 이스트 QUADRANT
090 NM 동남 QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
34.5N 129.6E : 창 이동 을 반복

예측 :
AT VALID 12 시간 :
090000Z — 37.3N 134.4E
040 KT , 돌풍 050 KT – MAX 는 바람을 지속
OPEN 물 위에 VALID 바람 반지름 만
온대
24 시간 창 이동 의 벡터 : 060 DEG / 28 KTS

AT VALID 24 시간 :
091200Z — 40.0N 140.6E
MAX 지속적인 WINDS – 030 KT , 돌풍 040 KT
OPEN 물 위에 VALID 바람 반지름 만
온대
36 HR 의 창 이동 의 벡터 : 065 DEG / 34 KTS

유효한 AT 36 시간 :
100000Z — 42.5N 148.9E
020 KT , 돌풍 030 KT – MAX 는 바람을 지속
OPEN 물 위에 VALID 바람 반지름 만
온대

비고 :
35.2N 130.8E NEAR 081500Z 위치 .
열대 폭풍우 23W ( DANAS )는 약 84 NM NORTH 에 위치하는
사세보, 일본 은과거 OVER 23 노트로 북동 추적 들었습니다
여섯 시간 . ANIMATED 강화 된 적외선 위성 이미지 는 TS 23W 를 보여줍니다
지난 몇 시간 동안동북에 가속하고있다 . RADAR
큐슈 IMAGERY 쓰시마 OVERLLCC 의 흐름을 의미 함
TRACK 속도 의 증가 와 관련 , 불리한 바다
표면 온도 ( SST ) , 그리고FROM DRY COOL 공기 유입
경압 ZONE 빠르게시스템을 약화 . SST 감소
VALUES (섭씨 22 ~ 23 ) 과 매우 강한 수직 기류 (40
PLUS ) 매듭 TAU BYCOMPLETE 온대 TRANSITION 으로 이어질 것입니다
12 . LLCC 의최근 가속도 점점 BASED
가혹한 환경 , 이것은이 시스템 의 마지막 경고
공동 TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI . 시스템 밀접하게 될 것입니다
중생의 징후 를 모니터링 . 최대 유의 파고 의 높이
081200Z 40 피트 가 된다. / /
NNNN
TSR logoNW 태평양 : 10월 7일 에서 발행 폭풍 경고 2013 그리니치 표준시 18시

NW 태평양 : 10월 8일 에서 발행 폭풍 경고 2013 그리니치 표준시 12시 ( 마지막 경고 )

현재 34.5 N 129.6 E 근처에 열대 폭풍우 DANAS ( 23W )는 주어진 리드 타임 (들 ) 에 다음과 같은 가능성 ( 들)에 토지를 공격 할 것으로 예상된다 :

레드 얼럿 국가 ( 들) 또는 지방 (들 )
일본
CAT 1 확률 이상 은 현재 35 %
TS 에 대한 확률은 현재 100 %

노란색 경고 국가 ( 들) 또는 지방 (들 )
대한민국
TS 에 대한 확률은 현재 95 % 입니다
노란색 경고 시티 ( 들) 및 타운 (들 )
부산 ( 35.2 N, 129.1 E)
TS 에 대한 확률은 현재 95 % 입니다
후쿠오카 ( 33.6 N, 130.4 E)
TS 에 대한 확률은 현재 90 % 입니다
마쓰에 (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
TS 에 대한 확률은 12 시간 안에 85 % 입니다
사가 ( 33.3 N, 130.3 E)
TS 에 대한 확률은 현재 80 %
히로시마 ( 34.4 N, 132.4 E)
TS 에 대한 확률은 12 시간 안에 75 % 입니다
나가사키 (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
TS 에 대한 확률은 현재 55 % 입니다

참고
빨간색 경고 ( 심한 경우도 있음) CAT 1 또는 % 31 에서 100 %의 확률 이상입니다.
노란색 경고 ( 상승 ) CAT 1 이상 에 10 % , 30 %의 확률 , 또는 TS 사이의 이상 50 %의 확률 이다.
CAT 1 이상 74mph 의 태풍 강도 바람 119kmh 또는 64 노트 1 분 지속 을 의미합니다.
TS 적어도 39mph 의 열대 폭풍우 힘 바람 을 의미 , 63kmh 34 노트 1 분 지속 .

그래픽 예측 정보와 자세한 내용 http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ 를 방문하시기 바랍니다
다른 보고서
태풍 Danas 일본과 한국 에 영향을 미칩니다. 저녁 업데이트

robspeta / / Westernpacificweather.com 에 의해 2013년 10월 8일 에 게시

레이더 큐슈

” 태풍 Danas 한국과 규슈 사이 에 쓰시마 섬 에 오늘 북쪽 동쪽 을 경주 하고 있습니다.

지금까지 기록 된 최대 바람 나가사키 (현) 126kph 에 돌풍 까지 왔다. 기이 반도 에서 멀리 동쪽 에 있지만 여전히 남쪽의 비 보고서의 수분 유입 에 의해 영향을 받고 단지3 시간 기간에 100mm 이상의 기록 되었다.

좋은 소식은 날씨의 최악의 것은 해안 떨어져 아직도 있고 Danas 도 빠르게 이전에 가는 것보다속도를 발견했습니다 . 이 조건이 급속하게저녁 시간 을 통해 서부 일본과 한국 의 폭풍 뒤에 개선 을 의미합니다.

많은 항공편 은 일본 서부 에 걸쳐 취소 되었습니다 .

사세보 TCCOR1 의군사 자리에 아직도있다. 이와쿠니 에있는 사람들을 위해 당신은 가능성이 TS 강도 바람을 얻을 것이라는 점을 그러나강렬한 돌풍 라인 ​​이 없다면 내가 거기 에 대한 50kts 이상 바람을 기대 하지 않습니다.

나가사키 다음 Danas 의 손상

나가사키 다음 Danas 의 손상

Danas 에서 의 주요 위협은폭우 될 것입니다 . 200mm 이상 일부 지역 에서 수요일 아침 까지 규슈 와 혼슈 의 일본 해안선의바다를 따라 전망이다. 이 홍수와 산사태 의 위험 이 발생할 수 있습니다.

이 폭풍 의 플립 측면에서, 남쪽 바람은 규슈 의 대부분 에서 10 월 한 달 동안 기록적인 온도에서 도입 했다. 수은은 많은 분야에서 낮은 30 대 타격입니다.

수요일 저녁 까지 머리 북부 혼슈 의폭풍이 롤. 바람 북부 혼슈 의 해안 지역 에있는 사람들 의 많은 열대 폭풍우 의 강도 에 돌풍 됩니다. 수해 비가 은 동북 을 통해 남쪽 을 확장 아오모리위협이 될 것입니다.

JMA 트랙

도쿄 날씨의최악의 상황을 그리워 한다 하지만 대기불안정 으로 인해지나가는 소나기질문을 밖으로 완전히 되지 않습니다.

중요한 점 은 항상 멀리 안전 으로 기억 합니다 . 언제든지 해당 지역의 공식 기관 에서경고를 따르십시오. 그것은 위험한 밖에 보이는 경우에, 당신의 감각 은 아마 수정 됩니다. 항상 안전 을 재생할 수 있습니다.

Danas 히트 일본 역시중요한 온대 낮은 북쪽 북부 태평양 에 실행됩니다.

” – Westernpacificweather.com

( 영상 제공 : Westernpacificweather.com )
해양

( 이미지 : JMA ) 해양 경고 ( 소스 이미지를 클릭 )
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 는 081500 를 RJTD
경고 081500 .
VALID 091500 을 경고합니다.
STORM 경고 .
SEVERE 열대 폭풍우 1324 DANAS ( 1324 ) 985 HPA
일본 동북 20 노트 를 이동 34.9N 130.4E 바다 .
좋은 위치 .
MAX 는 센터 주변 50 매듭 바람.
30 매듭 바람의 반경은 150 km 떨어진 지점 반원 120
다른 곳에서는 MILES .
50 마일 반경 38.0N 135.2E AT 090300UTC 에 대한 예측 위치
70 % 확률 서클 .
992 HPA , MAX 바람 센터 주변 45 매듭 .
130 마일 반경 40.9N 142.6E AT 091500UTC 에 대한 예측 위치
70 % 확률 서클 .
1000 HPA 는 MAX 35 매듭 바람.
온대 LOW 되고 .

일본 기상청 . =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1200

WWJP25 RJTD 081200
경고 및 요약 081200 .
VALID 091200 을 경고합니다.
경고 는 6 시간마다 업데이트됩니다.
STORM 경고 .
LOW 976 HPA 를 개발
오호츠크 이스트 20 노트 를 이동 55N 155E 의 바다 .
LOW 남동부 의 900 킬로미터 이내에있는 WINDS 30 ~ 50 매듭 반원
다른 곳에서는 500 마일 .
130 의 불확실성 55N 174E AT 091200UTC 에 대한 예측 위치
MILES RADIUS .
GALE 경고 .
열대 불경기 1,004 HPA
ALMOST STATIONARY 필리핀 15.0N 133.5E 동쪽 바다 AT .
POOR 를 놓습니다.
MAX 는 30 매듭 바람.
예상 된 MAX 바람 NEXT 24 시간 CENTER NEAR 35 매듭 .
120 마일 반경 15.1N 131.7E AT 091200UTC 에 대한 예측 위치
70 % 확률 서클 .
GALE 경고 .
열대 불경기 1,004 HPA
ALMOST STATIONARY 12.7N 150.9E TRUKS AT .
POOR 를 놓습니다.
MAX 는 30 매듭 바람.
예상 된 MAX 바람 NEXT 24 시간 CENTER NEAR 35 매듭 .
120 마일 반경 13.5N 149.2E AT 091200UTC 에 대한 예측 위치
70 % 확률 서클 .
경고 .
짙은 안개 는 47N 153E 52N 158E 에 묶여 바다 위에 로컬 관찰
48N 167E 44N 162E 42N 155E 47N 153E .
요약 .
35N 117E EAST 10 KT AT HIGH 1018 HPA .
43N 133E EAST 10 KT AT HIGH 1018 HPA .
39N 169E EAST 15 KT AT HIGH 1026 HPA .
35N 129E FROM 37N 134E 38N 142E TO STATIONARY FRONT .
REMARKS .
SEVERE 열대 폭풍우 1324 DANAS ( 1324 ) 34.5N 129.5E AT 980 HPA 는 보기 :
TROPICAL CYCLONE 경고 .

일본 기상청 . =

China/Taiwan/Japan: TD 1323 ex-FITOW: 070600Z near 27.0N 118.0E, moving WNW at 10 knots (JMA) made Fujian province landfall – 071013 1815z

Tropical Cyclone (Tropical Depression) ex-Fitow

Typhoon Fitow made landfall in East China’s Fujian province in the early hours on Monday

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1323

(Image: JMA) 5 Day Track Forecast (Click image for source)

TD
Issued at 07:00 UTC, 7 October 2013

<Analyses at 07/06 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N2700′(27.0)
E11800′(118.0)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa

 

TSR logo NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 6 Oct, 2013 12:00 GMT

Typhoon FITOW (22W) currently located near 27.0 N 121.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Fuan (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently
Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
Taichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours
Nanchang (28.7 N, 115.9 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Other Reports

China Daily Website

Typhoon Fitow makes landfall in E China

Updated: 2013-10-07 05:41

( Xinhua)

FUZHOU – Typhoon Fitow made landfall in East China’s Fujian province in the wee hours on Monday, packing winds up to 151 km per hour, the National Meteorological Center said.

 

The storm, the 23rd typhoon to hit China this year, landed in Shacheng Township of Fuding city at 1:15 am Monday. It will continue to move northwestward but weaken quickly, said the center. A red alert, the highest warning, was issued for Fitow on Sunday.

 

Cities such as Fuzhou and Sanming in Fujian will see rain of more than 200 mm from Sunday night to Monday morning, said the Fujian flood control authorities.

 

Due to the typhoon, power was cut off in Taishun county, Zhejiang province, at 11 pm Sunday. The power blackout also hit many townships in Cangnan, Wencheng, Pingyang and Dongtou counties in Zhejiang.

 

Mao Fanggui, director of the emergency office in Taishun county, told Xinhua downpour was lashing the county and most townships in the county were hit by blackout.

 

A boy in Cangnan county was injured in the abdomen by glass debris due to strong winds. He was being treated by doctors.

 

Rainstorm and winds up to 201 km per hour slashed Cangnan County and the Nanji Island Township, and some houses collapsed in the county, said the Wenzhou flood control headquarters.

 

As of 6 p.m. Sunday, some 574,000 people were evacuated and 35,795 vessels returned to harbor for shelter, said the Zhejiang Provincial Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters.

 

In Fujian, 177,000 people were displaced and nearly 30,000 fishing boats were called back.

 

The typhoon has caused suspension of bullet trains in several cities in Zhejiang, Fujian and Jiangxi and halted services on at least 35 lines that pass cities on the typhoon route, including services between Beijing and Nanjing, Shanghai, Ningbo, Fuzhou and Xiamen.

 

Wenzhou Airport, a pivotal airport in Zhejiang province, canceled 27 flights on Sunday, including flights to Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Kunming.

 

Coach services between Shanghai and Wenzhou were also suspended on Sunday. Maritime authorities in Fujian and Zhejiang have closed seaside bathing centers and other entertainment facilities on the coast.

MARITIME

(Image: JMA) Marine Warnings (Click image for source & links)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 RJTD 071500
WARNING 071500.
WARNING VALID 081500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1324 DANAS (1324) 935 HPA
AT 28.9N 127.3E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 31.6N 126.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 33.8N 129.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 1200

WWCI50 BABJ 071200
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1530UTC OCT.07 2013=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC OCT. 07=
FORECAST VALID 1200UTC OCT. 08=
WARNNING=
SUPER TY DANAS 1324(1324) 935HPA AT 28.1N 127.8E
MOVING NNW 25KM/H AND MAX WINDS 52M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 10.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS 350KM AND
RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS 160KM AND FORECAST FOR 081200UTC
AT 33.5N 128.3E 965HPA MAX WINDS 38M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
NE WINDS FROM 10 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER
SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA=
E-NE WINDS FROM 12 TO 18M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER
EAST CHINA SEA AND KOREA STRAIT=
WINDS FROM 14 TO 28M/S SEAS UP TO 5.5M OVER
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS=
WINDS FROM 30 TO 55M/S SEAS UP TO 10.0M OVER SEA
NEAR CENTER OF DANAS=
WINDS FROM 07 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
BASHI CHANNEL=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER SEA
EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS AND ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA
EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA STRAIT AND SULAWESI
SEAU=
FORECAST=
NE WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER
BOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT AND NORTH AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF YELLOW=
NE WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUST 21 TO 28M/S SEAS
UP TO 3.5M OVER SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA=
WINDS FROM 14 TO 24M/S GUST 25 TO 35M/S SEAS UP
TO 6.0M OVER EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA EAST OF RYUKYU
ISLANDS AND KOREA STRAIT=
WINDS FROM 30 TO 55M/S SEAS UP TO 10.0M OVER SEA
NEAR CENTER OF DANAS=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 18M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER
SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=
WINDS FROM 10 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN=
NLY WINDS FROM 07 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
BEIBU GULF=
WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER
ANDAMAN SEA=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 1200

WWHK82 VHHH 071200
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA (ECS).
SYNOPSIS (071200UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
SUPER TYPHOON DANAS NEAR OKINAWA IS EXPECTED TO BRING GALE
FORCE WINDS TO THE ECS LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER THE ECS LATER.
SWELL E TO NE 3 M OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN AND THE ECS.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) OVER THE ECS LATER.
SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER GULF OF THAILAND, THE SOUTHERN
PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA, SEAS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
PHILIPPINES AND SEAS NEAR MALAYSIA.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

Japanese (Translated by Google)

中国/台湾/日本:台風(CAT1-SS)22W FITOW:16ノット福建省や浙江省、中国での予想(JTWC)上陸でNWを移動27.1N121.1Eの近く061500Z、月曜日の朝0610131720z上


熱帯低気圧(台風) Fitow
(国立海洋環境予測センター)月曜日の朝に福建省や浙江省で上陸することが予想

RED CHINAのアラート 特に温州( 27.5 N 、 120.5 E) &福安市( 27.1 N 、 119.7 E)は注意してください! (TSR)

(画像: wunderground.com )衛星(ソース画像をクリック)

(画像: wunderground.com ) 5日間の予報(ソース画像をクリック)

気象庁

1323

(画像: JMA ) 5日トラックの予測(ソース画像をクリック)
TY 1323 ( FITOW )
13:10 UTC 、 2013年10月6日に発行される
6月12日UTC>で<Analyses
1:43 –
強い強度
中心位置N26 40 (26.7 )
E121 40 ( 121.7 )
動き西北西毎時20キロ( 10カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧975hPa
中央35メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 65カラット)
最大突風スピード50メートル/秒( 95カラット)
50カラット風の面積以上ALL110km ( 60nmの)
30カラット風の面積以上N440km ( 240NM )
S330km ( 180nm以下)
07/00 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
確率サークルN27 25 (27.4 )の中心位置
E119 30 ( 119.5 )
動き西北西毎時20キロ( 10カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧985hPa
最大持続風速25メートル/秒( 50カラット)
最大突風スピード35メートル/秒( 70カラット)
確率サークル90キロの半径( 50NM )
7月12日UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
確率円の中心位置N27 20 (27.3 )
E118 30 ( 118.5 )
運動Wの方向と速度をゆっくり
中心気圧998hPa
最大持続風速18メートル/秒( 35カラット)
最大突風スピード25メートル/秒( 50カラット)
確率130キロの円の半径( 70nmの)
8月12日UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
TD
確率サークルN26 25 (26.4 )の中心位置
E117 05 ( 117.1 )
動きの方向と速度はゆっくりSW
中心気圧1002hPa
確率300キロの円の半径( 160NM )
合同台風警報センター( JTWC )

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2213.gif

(画像: JTWC ) TCトラック(ソース画像をクリック)

Google Earthのグラフィックオーバーレイ

WTPN33 PGTW 061500
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN真珠湾HI / /
SUBJ /熱帯低気圧の警告/ /
RMKS /
1 。 TYPHOON 22W ( FITOW )警告NR 026
NORTHWESTPAC IN 02 ACTIVE熱帯低気圧
MAXはONE- MINUTE平均に基づいてWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

警告POSITION :
061200Z NEAR 27.0N 121.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 16 KTS AT 310 DEGREES
040 NM以内の正確な位置
POSITIONは、衛星のそば中心を基準に
PRESENT WIND配分:
065 KT 、突風080 KT MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
27.0N 121.7E : POSITを繰り返す

予測:
AT VALID 12時間:
070000Z 27.2N 119.4E
050 KT 、突風065 KT MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
24人事POSITへのベクトル:255 DEG / 09 KTS

AT VALID 24時間:
071200Z 26.7N 117.4E
035 KT 、突風045 KT MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
LAND比べて大きな熱帯低気圧AS散逸
36人事POSITへのベクトル:245 DEG / 09 KTS

VALID AT 36時間:
080000Z 25.9N 115.6E
020 KT 、突風030 KT MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
LAND比べて大きな熱帯低気圧として散逸

備考:
27.1N 121.1E NEAR 061500Z POSITION 。
TYPHOON 22W ( FITOW )は、約115 NM NORTH OF LOCATED
台北、台湾では、 OVER 16ノットで北西追跡して
過去六時間。 061200Zで最大有義波高は22です
FEET 。 062100Z 、 070300Z 、 070900Z AND 071500Z AT NEXT警告。 REFER
SIX HOURLY FOR TYPHOON 23W ( DANAS )警告( WTPN31 PGTW )へ
UPDATES 。 / /
NNNN
TSRロゴ北西太平洋: 10月6日に発行される嵐の警告、 2013十二時00分GMT

台風FITOW ( 22W )は、現在27.0の近くにN 121.7 Eが与えられたリードタイム( s)で、次の可能性(複数可)に土地を打つと予測されている:

レッドアラート国(s)または州( S)
中国
CAT 1の確率以上では、12時間以内に70%である
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%
レッドアラート市(s)とタウン(S)
温州( 27.5 N 、 120.5 E )
CAT 1の確率以上では、12時間以内に65%である
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%
福安市( 27.1 N 、 119.7 E )
CAT 1の確率以上では、12時間以内に40%で
TSの確率は、12時間以内に100%

イエローアラートカントリー(s)または州( S)
台湾
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%
イエローアラート市(s)とタウン(S)
温嶺( 28.4 N 、 121.4 E )
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%
福州(26.1 N 、 119.3 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に100%
金華(29.2 N 、 120.0 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に95%で
衢州(29.0 N 、 119.0 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に95%で
プーティエン(25.6 N 、 119.0 E )
TSのための確率は約24時間で95%で
台北(25.0 N 、 121.5 E )
TSのための確率は現在95%で
寧波(29.7 N 、 121.5 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に85%
泉州(25.0 N 、 118.5 E )
TSのための確率は約24時間で80%
漳州(24.5 N 、 117.8 E )
TSのための確率は約24時間で60%で
Taichung (24.1 N 、 120.7 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に55%である
南昌( 28.7 N 、 115.9 E )
TSのための確率は約24時間で55%である

注意してください
レッドアラートは、 (重症) CAT 1または% 31 〜100 %の確率に上です。
イエローアラート(高架) CAT 1以上〜10 %と30 %の確率、又はTSの間に50%以上の確率である。
CAT 1は、少なくとも毎時74マイルの台風の強さの風、毎時119キロまたは64ノット1分間の持続を意味している。
TSは、少なくとも毎時39マイルの熱帯性低気圧の強さの風を意味し、毎時63キロまたは34ノット1分持続。

グラフィカルな予測情報と詳細についてhttp://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/をご覧くださ&#12356;
その他のレポート

中国日報ウェブサイト
Fitowとしてレッドアラートがで終了
更新日: 2013年10月6日午前23時10
シャンフアン(中国日報)によって
台風は福建省や浙江省で上陸することが予想

沿岸地域では台風Fitow用ブレースとして嵐潮と高波のために赤のアラートは、日曜日に海事当局によって発行された。

今年中国にヒットする23台風は月曜日の朝に福建省や浙江省で上陸すると予想され、国立海洋環境予測センターは述べています。

Fitowとしてレッドアラートがで終了

台風Fitowは温嶺、浙江省を下にクマと兵士たちは日曜日に沿岸防衛を確認してください。 Fitowが月曜日に早期に福建省や浙江省で上陸すると予測されているとして、高潮のために海事当局は赤いアラート、最も高い警告を、発行している。 【 CHINA DAILY FOR JIA CE / BY PHOTO ]

10メートルと高い波が東シナ海で期待されている。

Fitowの中心は土曜日の夜に浙江省の温州の約590キロ南東にあった、と時速18キロの速度で沿岸地域を打つように設定され、予報は語った。

漁師が港に戻るよう促されたと当局は潮のサージの準備のために港湾施設や修理海の壁を補強するように求めていた、新華社が報じた。

追って通知があるまでの沿岸の観光サイトが閉じられます。

中国は最も深刻を表す赤色で、 4層の色分けされた気象警報システムを使用して、黄色及び青色オレンジした。

上海では、突風と豪雨は上海気象局によると、日曜日の夜にピークを迎えると予想されていた。

治水当局は黄浦江の水レベル以上の警告を発行していると市職員が実施されるように予防措置を求めている、地元メディアが報じた。

上海鉄道局は、上海虹橋駅から浙江省の温州、福建省福州、厦門、月曜日のためにチケットの販売を停止している。

中国東方航空は、日本では上海浦東国際空港と沖縄の間の土曜日に2便がキャンセルされ、より多くの飛行キャンセルが必要になる場合があります。

花火が上海観光局によると、火曜日まで延期された浦東新区にセンチュリーパークで日曜の夜に予定が表示されます。

浙江省のいくつかの都市で新幹線のサービスが中断され、温州空港は、北京、広州、上海、昆明へのフライトを含む日曜日に27便が、キャンセルされた。

上海、温州を結ぶ長距離バスサービスも閉鎖された。

大雨は日曜日に浙江省を打つようになった。

20万人以上の人々は日曜日の朝まで温州、台州、寧波、および舟山で安全な場所に避難していたと35,000船舶は港に戻っていた。

一方、ダムや波の障壁を検査し、強化されていた。

災害救援活動のために、人民解放軍の5,000兵士は待機することを命ぜられた。

福建省では、海事当局は安全性に​​128,000漁師を排気し、日曜日の午後でほぼ30,000漁船をバックと呼ばれる、新華社が報じた。当局はまた、沿岸の娯楽施設を閉鎖した。

新華社はこの物語に貢献した。
0

関連ストーリー

台風Fitowポンド浙江省
中国UPSの警告台風Fitowが近づくにつれて
中国問題に最も台風の警告
台風Wutipによってトラップ268漁師は、保存された

MARITIME

(画像: JMA )マリン警告(ソース&リンクについては画像をクリック)
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP23は061200をRJTD
WARNING 061200 。
VALID 071200警告。
警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。
台風警報。
TYPHOON 1323 FITOW ( 1323 ) 975 HPA
26.7N 121.7E AT東シナ海はWESTNORTHWEST 10ノットの移動。
良いポジション。
MAXは、中心部に近い65ノットの風。
50 KNOTのWINDS OVER 60マイルの半径。
30 OVER KNOTのWINDSの半径は240マイルNORTH半円AND 180マイル
ELSEWHERE 。
50マイル半径27.4N 119.5E AT 070000UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
985 HPA 、 MAX WINDS 50ノット。
70マイルの半径27.3N 118.5E AT 071200UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
998 HPA 、 MAX WINDS 35ノット。
EXTENDED見通し。
160マイルの半径26.4N 117.1E AT 081200UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
1002 HPA 。
熱帯低気圧となっております。

気象庁。 =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 1200

WWCI50 BABJ 061200
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN =
NAVAREA XI (IOR )のメッセージは、 NMC BEIJINGによって発行された
1530UTC OCT.06 2013 = AT
メッセージは= EVERY 06 HOURSに更新されます
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC 10月06 =
VALID 1200UTC 10月を見込んでいます。 07 =
=をWARNNING
26.8N 121.8E AT STY FITOW 1323 ( 1323 ) 955HPAはMOVING
西北西18KM / HとセンターNEAR MAX WINDS 42M / S( SEAS
UP 9.5Mまで)と30KTS WINDS 350キロ、半径
FOR 50KTS WINDSの半径100KMおよび予測
27.0N 117.1E 998HPA MAX WINDS 16M / S AT 071200UTC
CENTER = NEAR
22.8N 133.5E AT STY DANAS 1324 ( 1324 ) 950HPAはMOVING
NWの30KM / HとMAX WINDSセンターの近く45M / S( SEAS
UP 9.5Mまで)と30KTS WINDS 300キロ、半径
50KTS WINDSの半径130キロとの予測
27.5N 128.4E 940HPA MAX WINDS 50M / S AT 071200UTC
CENTER = NEAR
概要=
25 〜38 42M / SのSEAS最大35M / SガストTO WINDS
東シナ海南部= OVER 9.5M
13 〜25 30M / SのSEAS最大24M / SガストTO WINDS
東シナ海と海東北部OVER 6.0M
琉球諸島と北マリアナSEA OF WEST
諸島と小笠原諸島OF SEA WEST =
33からUP 42M / S SEAS TO SEA OVER 9.5M TO WINDS
FITOW = OF NEAR CENTER
33からUP 42M / S SEAS TO SEA OVER 9.5M TO WINDS
DANAS = OF NEAR CENTER
11からUP 4.0M TO OVER 20M / S SEAS TO WINDS
台湾海峡と台湾= OF EAST SEA
08 FROM UP 16M / SのSEAS TO OVER 2.5M TO NWのWINDS
南シナ海北東部=
2.5M 〜08 FROM 16M / SのSEAS TO NE / EはWINDS UP OVER
日本海南部と朝鮮海峡=
SOUTH OVER 10KM THAN HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS
東シナ海とアンダマン海と、海のPART
タイ湾のスマトラと北部の西
AND SEAシンガポールとスンダ海峡東と
スラウェシSEA =
FORECAST =
33からUP 42M / S SEAS TO SEA OVER 9.0M TO WINDS
FITOW = OF NEAR CENTER
EAST OVER 6.0Mまで17から28M / S SEAS TO WINDS
中国海と台湾海峡と海東
TAIWANと海琉球EAST AND SEA
NORTHマリアナ諸島とSEA WEST OF WEST
小笠原諸島=
29日からUP 48M / S SEAS TO SEA OVER 10.0M TO WINDS
DANAS = OF NEAR CENTER
最大08 FROM 16M / SのSEAS TO NW BACKのSW WINDS
バシー海峡OVER 2.5M =
10からUP 16M / SのSEAS TO OVER 2.5M TO NWのWINDS
南シナ海北東部=
11からUP 16M / SのSEAS TO OVER 2.5M TO NEのWINDS
渤海と黄海の南PART =
11からUP 3.5M TO OVER 20M / S SEAS TO ELYのWINDS
JAPAN = OF SEA SOUTH
UP 2.0M 12〜 16M / SのSEAS TOサイクロンWINDS
THAILAND GULF OVER = GULF =

Chinese (Translated by Google)

中國/台灣/日本:颱風(CAT1SS)22W菲特:27.1N121.1E附近,061500Z西北16海裡(聯合颱風警報中心)登陸後,預計在福建,浙江兩省,中國移動,在星期一早上0610131720z


熱帶氣旋(颱風)菲特
預測在星期一早晨在福建和浙江兩省登陸(國家海洋環境預報中心)

紅色警戒中國 尤其是溫州(27.5 N, 120.5 E)福安市(27.1 N, 119.7 E)當心! ( TSR )

(圖片提供: wunderground.com )衛星(點擊圖片來源)

(圖片: wunderground.com )五天天氣預報(點擊圖片源)

日本氣象廳

1323

(圖片提供: JMA ) 5天路徑預報(點擊圖片源)
TY 1323 (菲特)
發行於2013年10月6日, 13:10 UTC
在6月12日UTC> <Analyses
秤 –
強度強
中心位置N26 40′ ( 26.7 )
E121 40 (121.7 )
方向和速度運動西北20公里每小時(萬噸)
中心氣壓975hPa
附近的中心35M / s的最大風速( 65克拉)
最大陣風速度50M / s的( 95克拉)
區的風50克拉或更多ALL110km ( 60NM )
區的風30克拉或更多N440km ( 240NM )
S330km ( 180納米)
<Forecast為07/00 UTC>
強度 –
中心位置的概率圓N27 25′ ( 27.4 )
E119 30′ (119.5 )
方向和速度運動西北20公里每小時(萬噸)
中心氣壓985hPa
最大持續風速25M / s的( 50克拉)
最大陣風速度35M / s的( 70克拉)
半徑概率圓90公里( 50NM )
7月12日UTC> <Forecast
強度 –
概率圈的中心位置N27 20′ ( 27.3 )
E118 30′ (118.5 )
慢慢的方向和速度的運動W
中心氣壓998hPa
最大持續風速18m / s的( 35克拉)
最大陣風線速度25m / s的( 50克拉)
半徑概率圓130公里( 70納米)
8月12日UTC> <Forecast
強度 –
TD
中心位置的概率圓N26 25′ ( 26.4 )
E117 05′ (117.1 )
慢慢的運動方向和速度SW
中央壓力1002hPa
半徑概率圓300公里( 160NM )
聯合颱風警報中心( JTWC )

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2213.gif

(圖片提供:聯合颱風警報中心)熱帶氣旋路徑(點擊圖片源)

谷歌地球圖形疊加

WTPN33 PGTW 061500
,MSGID / GENADMIN的的/合營號颱風 WRNCEN 珍珠港HI / /
的SUBJ /熱帶氣旋警告/ /
RMKS /
1。颱風22W(菲特)警告NR 026
02個活躍的熱帶氣旋NORTHWESTPAC
基於一分鐘平均最大持續風速
風半徑僅在開放的水有效

警告位置:
061200Z 近27.0N 121.7E
運動過去六小時 310度16 KTS
位置精確到040海裡內
基於位置的衛星中心
目前風分佈:
最大持續風速 065 KT ,陣風080 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
半徑為050千噸風 085 NM東北象限
085海裡,東南象限
095海裡,西南象限
095 NM西北象限
– 160海裡半徑為034千噸風東北象限
160 NM東南象限
145 NM西南象限
165 NM西北象限
重複POSIT : 27.0N 121.7E

預測:
12小時,有效的:
070000Z 27.2N 119.4E
最大持續風速 050 KT ,陣風065 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
向量POSIT至24小時:255度/ 09 KTS

24小時,有效的:
071200Z 26.7N 117.4E
最大持續風速 035 KT ,陣風045 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在土地消散
矢量36小時POSIT : 245度/ 09 KTS

36小時,有效的:
080000Z 25.9N 115.6E
最大持續風速 020 KT ,陣風030 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在土地消耗

備註:
27.1N 121.1E 061500Z位置附近。
颱風22W(菲特),位於北部約115納米
TAIPEI , TAIWAN ,西北跟踪的16海裡以上
過去六個小時。最大有效波高在061200Z 22
英尺。 062100Z 070300Z 070900Z及071500Z NEXT警告。符號
颱風23W (丹娜絲於)警告( WTPN31 PGTW )六小時
更新/ /

TSR標誌西北太平洋: 10月6日發出的風暴警報, 2013 12:00 GMT

颱風菲特(22W )目前位於27.0附近,東經121.7預測鉛在給定的時間(s )以下的可能性(次)取得土地:

紅色警戒國家(S)或省( S )
中國
CAT 1或以上的概率是70 %在12小時內
為TS的概率是100 % ,目前
紅色警戒市(s)和鎮(S )
溫州(27.5 N, 120.5 )
CAT 1或以上的概率是65%,在12小時內
為TS的概率是100 % ,目前
福安市(27.1 N, 119.7 )
CAT 1或以上的概率是40 %在12小時內
變性人的概率是100% ,在12小時內

黃色警示國家(S)或省( S )
台灣
為TS的概率是100 % ,目前
黃色警報城(s)和鎮(S )
溫嶺市(28.4 N, 121.4 )
為TS的概率是100 % ,目前
福州(26.1 N, 119.3 )
變性人的概率是100% ,在12小時內
金華(29.2 N, 120.0 )
變性人的概率是95% ,在12小時內
衢州(29.0 N, 119.0 )
變性人的概率是95% ,在12小時內
莆田(25.6 N, 119.0 )
為TS的概率是95% ,在約24小時
台北(25.0 N, 121.5 )
變性人的概率是95 % ,目前
寧波(29.7 N, 121.5 )
變性人的概率是85 %在12小時內
泉州(25.0 N, 118.5 )
為TS的概率是80%,在約24小時
漳州( 24.5東經117.8 )
為TS的概率是60%,在約24小時
Taichung (24.1 N, 120.7 )
變性人的概率是55%,在12小時內
南昌(28.7 N, 115.9 )
為TS的概率是55% ,在約24小時

需要注意的是
紅色警報(嚴重)是CAT 1或以上至31%和100 %的概率。
黃色警戒(升高)是CAT 1或以上的介於10%和30 %的概率,或者在50%以上的概率。
CAT 1意味著颱風強度至少74英里的風,119公里/小時或每小時64海裡,持續1分鐘。
TS意味著至少39英里的熱帶風暴強度的風, 63公里每小時34節1分鐘持續。

對於圖形的預測信息和進一步詳情,請訪問http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
其他報告

中國日報網站
紅色警報菲特關閉
更新時間: 2013年10月6日23:10
單娟(中國日報)
預計颱風登陸福建和浙江兩省

海事當局發出紅色警報風暴潮和高波上週日, ,沿海地區颱風菲特支撐。

打中國今年第23號颱風預計在星期一上午在福建和浙江兩省登陸,國家海洋環境預報中心說。

紅色警報菲特關閉

士兵檢查上週日的沿海防禦颱風菲特壓在浙江省溫嶺市。海事當局已發出紅色警報,最高溫預警,風暴潮菲特預測週一早些時候在福建和浙江兩省登陸。 [圖片由賈CE / 中國日報]

預計將在中國東海海浪高達10米。

氣象預報說,菲特中心在浙江省溫州東南約590公里,並設置上週六晚打沿海地區可達18公里每小時的速度。

新華社報導,敦促漁民返回港口,並要求當局加強港口設施和維修海堤準備湧潮。

沿海旅遊景點將被關閉,直至另行通知為止。

中國採用的是四層的顏色編碼的天氣預警系統,用紅色代表最嚴重,其次是橙色,黃色和藍色。

在上海,預計最高峰會在週日晚上的陣風和暴雨,據上海氣象局。

水位超過防洪部門已發出警告,在黃浦江上,並實施預防措施,以城市,官員們呼籲,當地媒體報導。

上海鐵路局暫停門票銷售,週一從上海虹橋火車站,在浙江溫州,福建福州和廈門。

中國東方航空公司取消了兩個航班上週六在上海浦東國際機場和沖繩之間,在日本,可能需要更多的航班取消。

計劃於週日晚在浦東新區世紀公園煙花匯演已被推遲到週二,根據上海旅遊局。

子彈頭列車服務暫停在幾個城市在浙江省和溫州機場取消27個航班上週日,包括北京,廣州,上海,昆明的航班。

教練服務,連接上海和溫州也被關閉。

開始有大雨到上週日打浙江。

超過20萬人被疏散到安全的地方,在溫州,台州,寧波,舟山,週日早上和35,000艘已經返回港口。

同時,水壩和波壁壘被檢查和強化。

對於救災行動,解放軍已下令5000名士兵待命。

新華社報導,在福建,海事部門疏散128,000漁民安全和召回近30000漁船週日下午。當局還關閉了沿海地區的娛樂設施。

新華社貢獻到這個故事。
0

相關的故事

浙江省颱風菲特磅
中國UPS警告颱風菲特接近
中國問題最高的颱風預警
268名漁民受困,受颱風蝴碟保存

海事

(圖片提供: JMA)海洋警告(點擊圖片源鏈接)
METAREA11 / / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN的1200

WTJP23 RJTD 061200
警告061200 。
警告有效071200 。
警告6小時更新一次。
颱風警報。
颱風1323菲特(1323) 975 HPA
AT 26.7N 121.7E東中國海搬家西北偏西10海裡。
POSITION不錯。
中心附近最大風65節。
超過50結風半徑60英里。
超過30個結風半徑240公里北半圓和180英里
在別處。
預測位置在50英里半徑27.4N 119.5E 070000UTC
70 %的概率圓。
985 HPA ,最大WINDS 50海裡。
預測位置在70英里半徑27.3N 118.5E 071200UTC
70 %的概率圓。
998 HPA ,最大WINDS 35海裡。
擴展前景。
預測位置在160英里半徑26.4N 117.1E 081200UTC
70 %的概率圓。
1002百帕。
熱帶低氣壓BECOMING 。

日本氣象廳。
METAREA11 / / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA的1200

WWCI50 BABJ 061200
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN =
北京NMC發出消息:第十一NAVAREA ( IOR )
AT 1530UTC OCT.06 2013 =
更新消息是每06小時=
概要有效1200UTC華僑城。 06 =
預測有效1200UTC華僑城。 07 =
WARNNING =
STY菲特1323( 1323) AT 26.8N 121.8E移動955HPA
西北偏西18KM / H和MAX WINDS 42M / S中心附近( SEAS
高達9.5M )半徑30KTS風350KM
100KM 50KTS風半徑及預測
071200UTC AT 27.0N 117.1E 998HPA最大WINDS 16M / S
靠近市中心=
STY達納斯1324 (1324) AT 22.8N 133.5E移動950HPA
西北30KM / H和MAX WINDS 45M / S中心附近( SEAS
高達9.5M )半徑30KTS風300KM
RADIUS 50KTS風130KM及預測
071200UTC AT 27.5N 128.4E 940HPA最大WINDS 50M / S
靠近市中心=
摘要=
從25到35M / S陣風38〜 42M / S SEAS UP WINDS
OVER的一部分,中國東海南部= 9.5M
24M / S陣風25到30M / S SEAS UP TO 13日至WINDS
的6.0M華北的一部分,東中國海和東部海域
作者:琉球群島,北馬里亞納海城西
群島和小笠原群島的海城西=
風速:從33到42M / S的SEAS UP到9.5M OVER SEA
中心附近菲特=
風速:從33到42M / S的SEAS UP到9.5M OVER SEA
中心附近達納斯=
風從11到20M / S到4.0M OVER海域
台灣海峽及台灣以東海域=
西北風從08到16M / S SEAS UP 2.5M OVER
中國南海東北部=
NE / E風從08到16M / S SEAS 2.5M OVER
日本和朝鮮海峽=以南海域
水平能見度小於10KM OVER南
的一部分,東中國海和安達曼海和海
西蘇門答臘和北部分泰國灣
與新加坡和巽他海峽和東部海域
蘇拉威西海=
預測=
WINDS 33〜 42M / S洲到9.0M OVER SEA
中心附近菲特=
風從17到28M / S SEAS在東亞6.0M
中國南海和台灣海峽東部海域
台灣和琉球群島以東海域及海
西,北馬里亞納群島的海城西
小笠原群島=
WINDS 29〜 48M / S洲到10.0M過海
中心附近達納斯=
NW回SW WINDS從08到16M / S SEAS UP
2.5M OVER巴士海峽=
西北風10到16M / S SEAS UP 2.5M OVER
中國南海東北部=
東北大風從11到16M / S SEAS UP 2.5M OVER
渤海和南部黃海=的
ELY風從11到20M / S到3.5M OVER海域
日本以南海域=
旋流風從12到16M / S SEAS可達2.0M
在泰國海灣=

Japan: Tropical Cyclone (Severe Tropical Storm) 16W (MAN-YI) 160900Z near 39.0N 142.6E moving NE at 33 knots – 160913 0834z

Tropical Cyclone (Tropical Storm (JTWC)

Severe Tropical Storm (JMA)

) MAN-YI

(Scroll down for Japanese translation)

i{̂߂ɃXN[_Ej

Japan Meteorological agency

All Tropical Cyclones

STS 1318 (MAN-YI)
Issued at 07:45 UTC, 16 September 2013

<Analyses at 16/07 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N3910′(39.2)
E14135′(141.6)
Direction and speed of movement NE 70km/h(38kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE650km(350NM)
NW460km(250NM)
<Estimate for 16/08 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N3940′(39.7)
E14205′(142.1)
Direction and speed of movement NE 70km/h(38kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE650km(350NM)
NW460km(250NM)
<Forecast for 16/18 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N4405′(44.1)
E14755′(147.9)
Direction and speed of movement NE 75km/h(40kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 17/06 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N5105′(51.1)
E15450′(154.8)
Direction and speed of movement NE 80km/h(44kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 240km(130NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

(Image: JMA) Currently valid Warnings/Advisories (Click image for source)
i摜FJMAjݗLȌx/́Ai\[X̉摜NbNj

(Image: JMA) Japan composite weather radar (Click image for source and animation)
i摜FJMAj́A{Cۃ[_[i\[XAj[V摜NbNj
Composite weather radar echoes and precipitation forecasts up to 60 minutes ahead are displayed in 1 km x 1 km resolution every 5 minutes, respectively. Any out-of-operation radars may cause radar echoes in affected areas to be weaker than they should be or not displayed at all.Precipitation Nowcasts provide precipitation intensity forecasts of swiftly growing convections with a spatial resolution of 1 km up to an hour ahead to assist with disaster prevention activities.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

WTPN31 PGTW 160900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 015  (FINAL WARNING)
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 37.6N 140.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 045 DEGREES AT 33 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 37.6N 140.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 43.2N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 40 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 50.1N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 39.0N 142.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM
SOUTH OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 33 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
160501Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH DECREASING
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON RJTD RADAR FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS FROM RJTD. TS 16W IS
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW
AND IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TS 16W IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

Other Reports

Man-yi 台風€18日本 Causes flooding and Wind Damage Across Japan while leaving 1 dead.

September 16, 2013 by // westernpacificweather.com

This is a quick update with some of the latest reports of damage and information across Japan, please leave information at westernpacificweather.com if you have reports or photos.

One casualty has been reported due to Man-yi, 3 people are still missing and 96 have been injured across Japan. A 71 year old women was the lone casualty thus far due to a landslide crashing in to her home Monday morning.

140kph wind gust have been reported in Japan resulting in trees snapping signs being blown down and light debris being tossed about. Video from near Nagoya where the storm made landfall show buildings severely damaged due to winds as the storm came crashing ashore around 0800JST.

Damage in Yokosuka Japan

Yet this pales in comparison to the rain effect across Japan. Over 490mm was reported in Nara in 24hrs. In Kyoto just west of Nara severe flooding inundated several communities causing flood damage to over 10,000 homes according to NHK.

Flooding in Kyoto

In Tokyo river flooding has also submerged low lying areas but not nearly to the extent as farther south. The image below is from Tamagawa showing it about double the rivers size.

Flooding in Tokyo with MT. Fuji in the distance

Video shot in Kanagawa prefecture at Jagoshima south of Tokyo

” – westernpacificweather.com

END

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 16 Sep, 2013 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm MAN-YI (16W) currently located near 37.6 N 140.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
 Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME

Japan

 

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 160600
WARNING 160600.
WARNING VALID 170600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1318 MAN-YI (1318) 985 HPA
AT 38.4N 141.1E NORTHERN JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 35 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 44.1N 147.9E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 51.1N 154.8E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 160600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 160600.
WARNING VALID 170600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 994 HPA
AT 57N 141E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 17.5N 132.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 18.1N 130.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 15.6N 113.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 16.5N 112.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 44N 146E 51N 157E
56N 163E 51N 180E 47N 180E 40N 170E 40N 160E 40N 150E 44N 146E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 35N 180E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 15N 150E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 35N 123E SE 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 37N 165E ESE SLOWLY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 40N 141E TO 42N 144E 43N 150E 43N 155E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1318 MAN-YI (1318) 985 HPA AT 38.4N 141.1E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Japanese (Translated by Google)

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dx̔MѐCi JMA j
j MAN- YI

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STS 1318 i MAN- YI j
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16/07 UTC><Analyses
K
x –
SʒuN39 10 ‘ i 39.2 j
E141 35 ‘ i 141.6 j
NE70Li 38Jbgj̕Ƒx
SC985hPa
ő厝25[g/bi 50Jbgj
ő˕Xs[h35[g/bi 70Jbgj
30Jbg̖ʐψȏSE650km i 350nḿj
NW460km i 250nḿj
16/08 UTC><Estimate
K
x –
SʒuN39 40 ‘ i 39.7 j
E142 05 ‘ i 142.1 j
NE70Li 38Jbgj̕Ƒx
SC985hPa
ő厝25[g/bi 50Jbgj
ő˕Xs[h35[g/bi 70Jbgj
30Jbg̖ʐψȏSE650km i 350nḿj
NW460km i 250nḿj
1816 UTC><Forecast
x –
LOW
mT[NN44 05 ‘̒Sʒui 44.1 j
E147 55 ‘ i 147.9 j
NE75Li 40Jbgj̕Ƒx
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ő厝30[g/bi 60Jbgj
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m160L̉~̔ai 85NM j
Xg[xGAALL310km i 170NM j
17/06 UTC><Forecast
x –
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mT[NN51 05 ‘̒Sʒui 51.1 j
E154 50 ‘ i 154.8 j
NE80Li 44Jbgj̕Ƒx
SC965hPa
ő厝35[g/bi 65Jbgj
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WTPN31 PGTW 160900

MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN^pHI / /
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MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 33 KTS AT 045 DEGREES
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” – westernpacificweather.com

END
TSR logoNWpVtBbNF 916ɔsXg[̌xA 2013N600GMT iŏIxj

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ALMOST STATIONARY 35N 180E AT LOW 1008 HPA B
15N 150E WEST NEARሳAREA 1004 HPA B
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37N 165E ESE AT HIGH 1020 HPA B
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