TYPHOON LAN (25W)
(=CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 30 FEET. – JTWC
SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/
TY 1721 (Lan)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 19 October 2017
<Analysis at 15 UTC, 19 October> | |
Scale | Large |
Intensity | Strong |
Center position | N17°30′ (17.5°) |
E130°00′ (130.0°) | |
Direction and speed of movement | N 15 km/h (8 kt) |
Central pressure | 965 hPa |
Maximum wind speed near center | 35 m/s (70 kt) |
Maximum wind gust speed | 50 m/s (100 kt) |
≥ 50 kt wind area | SE 220 km (120 NM) |
NW 170 km (90 NM) | |
≥ 30 kt wind area | S 800 km (425 NM) |
N 560 km (300 NM) | |
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 20 October> | |
Intensity | Strong |
Center position of probability circle | N19°00′ (19.0°) |
E129°55′ (129.9°) | |
Direction and speed of movement | N 15 km/h (8 kt) |
Central pressure | 950 hPa |
Maximum wind speed near center | 40 m/s (80 kt) |
Maximum wind gust speed | 60 m/s (115 kt) |
Radius of probability circle | 60 km (30 NM) |
Storm warning area | SE 280 km (150 NM) |
NW 220 km (120 NM) | |
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 20 October> | |
Intensity | Very strong |
Center position of probability circle | N20°35′ (20.6°) |
E130°00′ (130.0°) | |
Direction and speed of movement | N 15 km/h (8 kt) |
Central pressure | 940 hPa |
Maximum wind speed near center | 45 m/s (90 kt) |
Maximum wind gust speed | 65 m/s (130 kt) |
Radius of probability circle | 110 km (60 NM) |
Storm warning area | ALL 330 km (180 NM) |
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 21 October> | |
Intensity | Very strong |
Center position of probability circle | N24°00′ (24.0°) |
E131°10′ (131.2°) | |
Direction and speed of movement | NNE 20 km/h (10 kt) |
Central pressure | 935 hPa |
Maximum wind speed near center | 45 m/s (90 kt) |
Maximum wind gust speed | 65 m/s (130 kt) |
Radius of probability circle | 200 km (110 NM) |
Storm warning area | ALL 430 km (230 NM) |
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 22 October> | |
Intensity | Very strong |
Center position of probability circle | N30°25′ (30.4°) |
E133°40′ (133.7°) | |
Direction and speed of movement | NNE 30 km/h (17 kt) |
Central pressure | 935 hPa |
Maximum wind speed near center | 45 m/s (90 kt) |
Maximum wind gust speed | 65 m/s (130 kt) |
Radius of probability circle | 410 km (220 NM) |
Storm warning area | ALL 650 km (350 NM) |
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Typhoon 25W (Lan) Warning #17
Issued at 19/1500Z
WTPN32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z — NEAR 16.9N 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 325 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 130.0E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 18.3N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 325 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 19.9N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 335 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
390 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
345 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z — 21.5N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 385 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
420 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 23.6N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 435 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
385 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
450 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 28.8N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
355 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
450 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
490 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 26 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 36.9N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 395 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
475 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
385 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
355 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 30 KTS
—
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 43.6N 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
525 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
450 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
—
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 130.0E.
TYPHOON 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 589 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN
NOAA
TROPICAL STORM (TSR)
NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 19 Oct, 2017 12:00 GMT
Typhoon LAN is currently located near 16.9 N 130.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). LAN is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. LAN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Japan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 72 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 96 hours
Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 96 hours
Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 96 hours
Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 96 hours
Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 96 hours
Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
South Korea
probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
probability for TS is 100% in about 72 hours
Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
probability for TS is 95% in about 72 hours
Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
probability for TS is 95% in about 72 hours
Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 96 hours
Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 96 hours
Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
probability for TS is 95% in about 96 hours
Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 96 hours
Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
probability for TS is 95% in about 96 hours
Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 96 hours
Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 96 hours
Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
probability for TS is 90% in about 96 hours
Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
probability for TS is 90% in about 72 hours
Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 120 hours
Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 96 hours
Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 96 hours
Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 96 hours
Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 96 hours
Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 120 hours
Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 96 hours
Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 120 hours
Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 96 hours
Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 120 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
Other
(Above 2 images: @wunderground)
MARITIME/SHIPPING
WTJP22 RJTD 191800
WARNING 191800.
WARNING VALID 201800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1721 LAN (1721) 965 HPA
AT 17.9N 130.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 19.4N 129.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 21.0N 130.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 25.6N 131.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 32.8N 135.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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