West Pacific/ Guam /Marianas: Tropical Disturbance (#97W): High chance of a significant Tropical #Cyclone within next 24 hrs (JTWC 25/0200Z) – Published 25 Jun 2017 1550z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Disturbance (Invest  97W)

….has a high chance of becoming a significant Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours (JTWC 25/0200Z)

Guam and Marianas Beware!

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

WTPN21 PGTW 250200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N 146.2E TO 15.8N 141.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 145.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 147.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 145.8E, APPROXIMATELY
65 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH
INCREASING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE CENTER. A 242032Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260200Z.//
NNNN

===============================================================================

000
WWMY80 PGUM 251617 CCA
SPSMY

Special Weather Statement…Corrected
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1137 PM ChST Sun Jun 25 2017

GUZ001>004-260300-
Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan-
1137 PM ChST Sun Jun 25 2017

…TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS TONIGHT…

A developing tropical disturbance near Rota remains the subject
of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center. This disturbance will continue to produce scattered
showers, isolated thunderstorms, occasional heavy rain and gusty
winds tonight as it continues westward.

If you are planning any outdoor activities through Monday evening,
be aware of current conditions and be prepared to move indoors,
if necessary. Mariners operating small vessels should remain in
port. Beach goers and swimmers need to stay close to shore and
move indoors if lightning is present.

Residents should stay informed on the latest statements and
advisories issued by the National Weather Service and local
emergency management offices. Products issued by the National
Weather Service are posted on the WFO Guam web page at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/.

$$

Kleeschulte

Guam Infrared Color (Himawari 8)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
WHGM70 PGUM 250354
MWWGUM

URGENT – MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
154 PM CHST SUN JUN 25 2017

PMZ152>154-252000-
/O.NEW.PGUM.SI.Y.0004.170625T0354Z-170625T2000Z/
ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
154 PM CHST SUN JUN 25 2017

…SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CHST
MONDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CHST MONDAY.

EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL
BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS…ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS…SHOULD AVOID SAILING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

STANKO

060
FZMY70 PGUM 250715
MWSMY

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
515 PM CHST SUN JUN 25 2017

PMZ151>154-252000-
GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
515 PM CHST SUN JUN 25 2017

A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING FREQUENT LIGHTNING
TO THE MARIANAS WATERS TONIGHT. SEEK SAFE SHELTER INDOORS, OR
BELOW DECK FOR MARINERS AWAY FROM LAND. VISIBILITES WILL BE BELOW
1 NAUTICAL MILE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REMAIN ALERT
FOR FURTHER BULLETINS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN,
GUAM.

$$

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

TAIWAN/ CHINA: Typhoon Soudelor (13W) 081500Z POSITION near 24.9N 118.9E, moving NW at 08 knots (JTWC) – Updated 080815 1506Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Soudelor (13W)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 26 FEET (JTWC)

TAIWAN AND CHINA BEWARE!

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

Japan Meteorological agency

1513-00 8
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15080821

TY 1513 (SOUDELOR)
Issued at 13:00 UTC, 8 August 2015

<Analyses at 08/12 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N24°55′(24.9°)
E119°30′(119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E650km(350NM)
W500km(270NM)
<Forecast for 09/00 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N26°20′(26.3°)
E117°35′(117.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area NE220km(120NM)
SW190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 09/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27°55′(27.9°)
E116°35′(116.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N30°50′(30.8°)
E116°00′(116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

CWB Taiwan

CWB TAIWAN (Click here)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 13W (Soudelor) Warning #38
Issued at 08/1500Z

wp1315 8

13W_081132sair

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 038
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 24.6N 119.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 119.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 25.9N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 27.6N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 118.9E.
TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Aug, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon SOUDELOR (13W) currently located near 24.6 N 119.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Ganzhou (25.7 N, 115.0 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201513W 8

News Reports

Tropical Storm in Mariana Islands

President Barack Obama has declared the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands a disaster area and is ordering federal aid to help the U.S. territory in the aftermath of a destructive typhoon. The White House on Thursday announced the disaster declaration for Typhoon Soudelor, which destroyed homes, toppled trees and snapped utility poles over the weekend on the 48-square-mile island of Saipan. Damage surveys were ongoing, but the commonwealth remained without electricity and running water, and residents were rationing fuel. Most major roadways have been cleared of uprooted trees and debris, Saipan resident Glen Hunter said. “The morning after the typhoon, you could not get anywhere because of the power poles … and trees that fell on the ground,” lifelong Saipan resident Lucy Selepeo said. “The tin houses, practically everything just flew away. The only thing you can see from the houses are the foundations.” Selepeo said concrete homes that withstood the winds, like hers, are flooded. More than 500 people on Saipan were in shelters, according to the Red Cross. Officials distributed water at various stations across the island. Still, signs of aid remained scarce going into the fifth day after the storm, Selepeo said. “I encountered a family of eight who slept on the beach in their car because their home flew away,” she said. About 50,000 people live on the commonwealth’s four populated islands, with most residing on Saipan, which took the brunt of the storm. Nearby Tinian got some damage, while Rota was spared, said Gregorio Kilili Camcacho Sablan, the commonwealth’s delegate to U.S. Congress. As for Pagan, “No idea,” he said. “I have no way to contact Pagan.” Ten generators were being shipped from Guam to power water pumps in Saipan, but the harbor was closed Thursday because of a listing boat that was half underwater, Sablan said. Restoring power could take a month or two, he said. “I haven’t seen a storm like this in 20 years,” Sablan said. “Unfortunately, the resources we have are hardly enough to get things up.” Wind speeds during the storm were between 100 mph and 120 mph. In an area that’s used to typhoons, Sablan said he and others were expecting it to pass with maybe 80 mph winds. That there were no reports of deaths or serious injury “seems almost impossible,” Hunter said. There initially was a $20-per-vehicle limit on buying gasoline, which meant motorists could get only about four gallons, Hunter said. Some easily burned through that amount while waiting in long lines at the pumps. On Thursday, the limit increased to $50, Sablan said. Gov. Eloy Inos was on vacation visiting his children on the U.S. mainland. “He’s doing everything he can to come back home. … He’s very anxious,” Sablan said. Despite the desperate conditions, residents were hopeful.

“There is nowhere to go but up from here,” Selepeo said. “We’re optimistic. We will recover.”
Saturday, 08 August, 2015 at 04:39 (04:39 AM) UTC RSOE

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

seawarn 8

Marine Warnings: SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA

23:35 JST 08/08/2015

OKINAWA WX
082100JST ISSUED AT 082335JST

STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA SOUTH OF
OKINAWA

TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970HPA AT 24.9N 119.5E MOVING NNW 09KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150NM NE SIDE AND 100NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350NM EAST SIDE AND 270NM ELSEWHERE
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900JST AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 55KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100JST AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 45KT NEAR CENTER

IN SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE-LY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

IN SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100JST AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION

WARNING VALID 092100JST

Marine Warnings: SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA

23:35 JST 08/08/2015

OKINAWA WX
082100JST ISSUED AT 082335JST

STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA SOUTH OF
OKINAWA

TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970HPA AT 24.9N 119.5E MOVING NNW 09KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150NM NE SIDE AND 100NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350NM EAST SIDE AND 270NM ELSEWHERE
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900JST AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 55KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100JST AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 45KT NEAR CENTER

IN SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE-LY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

IN SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100JST AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION

WARNING VALID 092100JST

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN /081200

WTJP21 RJTD 081200
WARNING 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970 HPA
AT 24.9N 119.5E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Typhoon Dolphin 07W threatens Iwo Jima (Iwo To) – 180515 1517z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Dolphin (1507, 07W)

(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 33
FEET. – JTWC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

1507-00 d18

1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TY 1507 (DOLPHIN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 18 May 2015

<Analyses at 18/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°10′(22.2°)
E138°55′(138.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE390km(210NM)
SW280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 19/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°40′(23.7°)
E139°25′(139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 19/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°05′(25.1°)
E141°00′(141.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 20/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°35′(31.6°)
E148°00′(148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 40km/h(22kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)
<Forecast for 21/12 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44°25′(44.4°)
E165°30′(165.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 85km/h(47kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 600km(325NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Super Typhoon 07W (Dolphin) Warning #40
Issued at 16/1500Z

wp0715 d18

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/07W_181132sair.jpg

WTPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
181200Z — NEAR 22.5N 138.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 015 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 138.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 23.9N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 25.8N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 28.7N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 32 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 33.3N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 138.8E.
TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM SOUTHWEST OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 33
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 May, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon DOLPHIN (07W) currently located near 14.0 N 144.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Guam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the Northern Mariana Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hagatna (13.5 N, 144.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201507W d18

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 181200

WTJP22 RJTD 181200
WARNING 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1507 DOLPHIN (1507) 955 HPA
AT 22.2N 138.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 23.7N 139.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 25.1N 141.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 31.6N 148.0E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 44.4N 165.5E WITH 325 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 181200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 984 HPA
AT 48N 176E SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 48N 176E TO 48N 180E 46N 175W.
WARM FRONT FROM 46N 175W TO 43N 172W 40N 170W.
COLD FRONT FROM 46N 175W TO 41N 177W 38N 180E 35N 175E 32N 166E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N 166E TO 31N 158E 32N 148E 33N 137E 35N 132E
27N 120E 25N 112E 24N 109E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
400 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 35N 132E WESTERN JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 28N 130E 31N 130E
35N 141E 42N 142E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 33N 180E 29N 165E 28N
149E 28N 130E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 39N 129E ENE 15 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 48N 146E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 34N 156E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 26N 163E EAST 10 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1507 DOLPHIN (1507) 955 HPA AT 22.2N 138.9E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines/ Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm BAVI / BETTY(1503) 170600Z nr 15.3N 135.4E, moving WNW at 13 knots (JMA) – Updated 170315 0820z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Bavi (1503)(03W)/ “BETTY” in Philippines

…BAVI IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND COULD BE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE TONIGHT….NWS GUAM

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

wp201503_sat_anim BAVI 17

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1503-00 BAVI 17

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15031709

TS 1503 (BAVI)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 17 March 2015

<Analyses at 17/06 UTC>
Scale –
Intensity –
Center position N15°20′(15.3°)
E135°25′(135.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW280km(150NM)
SE170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 17/18 UTC>
Intensity –
Center position of probability circle N15°35′(15.6°)
E133°40′(133.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 18/06 UTC>
Intensity –
Center position of probability circle N16°05′(16.1°)
E131°55′(131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 19/06 UTC>
Intensity –
TD
Center position of probability circle N16°30′(16.5°)
E129°05′(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)

PAGASA Track as of 8 a.m., 17 March 2015 Satellite Image 
betty 15031700 bettysat 15031700

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER ONE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT: TROPICAL STORM “BETTY” (BAVI)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Tuesday, 17 March 2015

The Tropical Storm {BAVI} east of Bicol Region will enter The Philippine Area Of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon and will be named “BETTY”.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.)
1,530 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Coordinates: 15.4°N, 136.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph.
Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 20 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook: 24 hour (Tomorrow morning):
1,030 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
48 hour (Thursday morning):
640 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
72 hour (Friday morning):
270 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
No Public Storm Warning Signal

Estimated rainfall amount is from 2.5 – 7.5 mm per hour (light – moderate) within the 500 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.

The Tropical Storm is expected to weaken into a Tropical Depression within the next 24-36 hours.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11PM today.

 11  a.m. Weather Bulletin in pdf 

National Weather Service Forecast OfficeWFO Guam

errorTrack1 BAVI 17
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 170235
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
200 PM CHST TUE MAR 17 2015

…TROPICAL STORM BAVI WEAKENING…

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.3N 135.8E

ABOUT 430 MILES NORTH OF YAP
ABOUT 660 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 630 MILES WEST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 610 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST-NORTHWEST…290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
AT 100 PM CHST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.8 EAST…MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. BAVI IS EXPECTED TO CURVE WESTWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 40 MPH. SATELLITE DATA
INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES…MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BAVI IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND COULD BE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

ZIOBRO

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wp0315 BAVI 17

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03W_162332sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 170300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
170000Z — NEAR 15.2N 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 136.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 15.6N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 15.8N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 16.0N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 16.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 15.9N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 135.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 170600

WTJP21 RJTD 170600
WARNING 170600.
WARNING VALID 180600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1503 BAVI (1503) 998 HPA
AT 15.3N 135.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 15.6N 133.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 16.1N 131.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 16.5N 129.1E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WTPH RPMM 170000
TTT GALE WARNING 01

AT 0000 17 MARCH TROPICAL STORM [BAVI] {1503} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE SIX POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 180000 ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 190000 ONE SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ONE EAST AND AT 200000 ONE SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

Further warnings here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Okinawa/ Naha/ Japan/ Philippines: Typhoon NEOGURI/ FLORITA 08W 061500Z nr 19.3N 129.9E, moving WNW at 11 knots (JTWC) Nearing Okinawa and southern Japanese islands (WestPacWx) – Updated 060714 1518z

Typhoon NEOGURI/ FLORITA now a Super Typhoon. Latest update here: http://wp.me/p2k2mU-2JX

Japan: Severe Tropical Storm PABUK 222100Z near 23.3N 141.4E, moving NW at 5 knots (JTWC) Passing S of Iwo To Island – 220913 2010z

Tropical Cyclone (Severe Tropical Storm) PABUK

TROPICAL STORM PABUK PASSING SOUTH OF IWO TO ISLAND (NWS GUAM 211500Z)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1320

.

Radar and Nowcast (Precipitation, Thunder, Tornado):Japan

(Image: JMA) CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE & ANIMATION

Japan Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

STS 1320 (PABUK)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 22 September 2013

<Analyses at 22/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N2310′(23.2)
E14135′(141.6)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE560km(300NM)
SW370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 23/06 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N2405′(24.1)
E14030′(140.5)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL150km(80NM)
<Forecast for 23/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N2455′(24.9)
E13940′(139.7)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 24/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N2640′(26.7)
E13820′(138.3)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)
<Forecast for 25/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N2905′(29.1)
E13940′(139.7)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

.
National Weather Service Forecast OfficeWFO Guam

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/images/guam/frTrack1.jpg

(Image: NHC) Forecast Track and Uncertainty Graphic (Click image for source)

972
WTPQ31 PGUM 221528
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PABUK (19W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP192013
200 AM CHST MON SEP 23 2013

…TROPICAL STORM PABUK PASSING SOUTH OF IWO TO ISLAND…

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–

LOCATION…23.0N 141.8E

ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO
ABOUT 385 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 600 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND
ABOUT 685 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-

AT 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PABUK WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.8
EAST.

TROPICAL STORM PABUK IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. PABUK IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL COURSE WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM PABUK
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM PABUK WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 8 AM.

$$

MCELROY

NESDIS banner image Geostationary Satellite Server image
link to the NOAA Home page  link to the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service Home Page

WFO Guam Sectors

Large Area Regional Coverage

Visible Visible Loop
InfraRed InfraRed Loop
Water Vapor Water Vapor Loop
Colorized IR Colorized Loop

Individual Sectors

(Visible/Daytime, InfraRed/night)

Palau Palau Loop
Yap Yap Loop
Marianas Marianas Loop
Chuuk Chuuk Loop
Pohnpei/Kosrae Pohnpei Loop
Marshall Islands Marshall Loop

All images are updated at 25 minutes past the hour

AAFB (Guam) Radar

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


WTPN31 PGTW 222100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PABUK) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
221800Z — NEAR 23.1N 141.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 141.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 24.0N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z — 24.8N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 25.8N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z — 27.2N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z — 29.1N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 30.8N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 32.7N 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 141.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (USAGI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN

MARITIME

National Weather Service Forecast OfficeWFO Guam

122
WHGM70 PGUM 220500
MWWGUM

URGENT – MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST SUN SEP 22 2013

PMZ151>154-222000-
/O.CON.PGUM.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-130924T0800Z/
GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
300 PM CHST SUN SEP 22 2013

…SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CHST
TUESDAY…

COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUST IN SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT.

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS…ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS…SHOULD AVOID BOATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. IF TRAVEL BY
BOAT IS NECESSARY EXERCISE CAUTION…ESPECIALLY NEAR REEF LINES
AND WHEN ENTERING OR LEAVING HARBORS AND INLETS.

&&

$$
857
WHMY40 PGUM 220500
CFWMY

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST SUN SEP 22 2013

GUZ001-002-003-004-222000-
/X.CON.PGUM.SU.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-130924T0800Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
300 PM CHST SUN SEP 22 2013

…HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CHST TUESDAY…

HAZARDOUS SURF OF 9 TO 11 FEET ON WEST FACING REEFS AND 7 TO
9 FEET ON NORTH FACING REEFS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

AVOID VENTURING NEAR EXPOSED REEFS AND BEACHES…ESPECIALLY THOSE
ALONG WEST FACING REEFS…AS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING.

&&

857
WHMY40 PGUM 220500
CFWMY

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST SUN SEP 22 2013

GUZ001-002-003-004-222000-
/X.CON.PGUM.SU.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-130924T0800Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
300 PM CHST SUN SEP 22 2013

…HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CHST TUESDAY…

HAZARDOUS SURF OF 9 TO 11 FEET ON WEST FACING REEFS AND 7 TO
9 FEET ON NORTH FACING REEFS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

AVOID VENTURING NEAR EXPOSED REEFS AND BEACHES…ESPECIALLY THOSE
ALONG WEST FACING REEFS…AS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING.

&&

$$

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP31 RJTD 221500
WARNING 221500.
WARNING VALID 231500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1320 PABUK (1320) 980 HPA
AT 22.9N 141.8E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 24.1N 140.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 25.0N 139.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Japanese (Translated by Google)

熱帯サイクロン(重症熱帯ストーム) PABUK

島へSOUTH IWOの通過熱帯暴風雨のPABUK ( NWSグアム211500Z )

(画像: wunderground.com )衛星(ソース画像をクリック)

(画像: wunderground.com ) 5日間の予報(ソース画像をクリック)

気象庁
1320


レーダーやナウキャスト(降水、雷、竜巻) :日本

(画像: JMA ) SOURCE &アニメーションの画像をクリック
日本現在有効な警告/勧告

STS 1320 ( PABUK )
午前18時50分UTC 、 2013年9月22日に発行される
18分の22 UTC>で<Analyses
1:43 –
強度 –
中心位置N23 10 ‘ (23.2 )
E141 35 ‘ ( 141.6 )
移動NNWの毎時15キロ( 8カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧980hPa
最大持続風速25メートル/秒( 50カラット)
最大突風スピード35メートル/秒( 70カラット)
30カラット風の面積以上NE560km ( 300nmで)
SW370km ( 200nmの)
23/06 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
確率サークルN24 05の中心位置’( 24.1 )
E140 30 ‘ ( 140.5 )
動きNW毎時15キロ( 7カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧975hPa
中央30メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 55カラット)
最大突風スピード40メートル/秒( 80カラット)
確率サークル90キロの半径( 50NM )
ストーム警告エリアALL150km ( 80nmの)
18分の23 UTC>ため<Forecast
強い強度
確率サークルN24 55 ‘ (24.9 )の中心位置
E139 40 ‘ ( 139.7 )
運動NWゆっくりの方向と速度
中心気圧970hPa
中央35メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 65カラット)
最大突風スピード50メートル/秒( 95カラット)
確率130キロの円の半径( 70nmの)
ストーム警告エリアALL200km ( 110nmの)
18分の24 UTC>ため<Forecast
強い強度
確率円の中心位置N26 40 ‘ (26.7 )
E138 20 ‘ ( 138.3 )
動きの方向と速度をゆっくり北北西
中心気圧965hPa
中央35メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 70カラット)
最大突風スピード50メートル/秒( 100カラット)
確率200キロの円の半径( 110nmの)
暴風雨警報エリアALL300km ( 160NM )
18分の25 UTC>ため<Forecast
強い強度
確率サークルN29 05 ‘の中心位置(29.1 )
E139 40 ‘ ( 139.7 )
移動NNEの毎時15キロ( 7カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧960hPa
中央の40メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 75カラット)
最大突風スピード55メートル/秒( 105カラット)
確率300キロの円の半径( 160NM )
ストーム警告エリアALL390km (波長210nm )


国立測候所予測OfficeWFOグアム

(画像: NHC )グラフィック予測トラックと不確かさ(ソース画像をクリック)

972
WTPQ31 PGUM 221528
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PABUK ( 19W ) ADVISORY番号7
国立気象SERVICE TIYAN GU WP192013
200 AM CHST月2013年9月23日

…熱帯暴風雨のPABUK島にSOUTH IWOの通過…

時計と警告
——————–

なし。

100の概要CHST … 1500 UTC … INFORMATION AM
———————————————–

LOCATION … 23.0N 141.8E

IWO約125 MILES南南東へ
アグリハン島の約385から北西に17km離れたロケーション
600マイルほどサイパン北北西AND
685マイルほどグアム北北西

最大持続WINDS … 60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT … NW OR 9 MPH AT 315 DEGREES

考察および展望
———————-

100 AT CHST … 1500 UTC …熱帯暴風雨のPABUKの中心はWAS午前
LATITUDE 23.0 NORTHと経度141.8 NEAR衛星によってLOCATED
EAST 。

熱帯暴風雨のPABUK 9 MPH AT NORTHWEST動いている。 PABUKが期待される
の継続的な漸減でこの一般コースを維持するために
FORWARD月曜日からSPEED 。

最大持続WINDSは60 MPH REMAIN 。 TROPICAL STORMフォースWINDS
CENTER 〜85マイルまで外向きに延びる。熱帯暴風雨のPABUK
STILLゆっくりTODAYそして今夜の強化が期待されています。

NEXT ADVISORY
————-

熱帯暴風雨のPABUK ON次のスケジュールアドバイザリーが発行されます
国立測候所BY 8 AT LATER今朝午前。

$ $

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Google Earthのグラフィックオーバーレイ

WTPN31 PGTW 222100

MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN真珠湾HI / /
SUBJ /熱帯低気圧の警告/ /
RMKS /
1 。 TROPICAL STORM 19W ( PABUK )警告NR 008
NORTHWESTPAC IN 02 ACTIVE熱帯低気圧
MAXはONE- MINUTE平均に基づいてWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

警告POSITION :
221800Z — NEAR 23.1N 141.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 05 KTS AT 315 DEGREES
020 NM以内の正確な位置
POSITIONは、衛星のそば中心を基準に
PRESENT WIND配分:
050 KT 、突風065 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
23.1N 141.7E : POSITを繰り返す

予測:
AT VALID 12時間:
230600Z — 24.0N 140.7E
055 KT 、突風070 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
24人事POSITへのベクトル:315 DEG / 06 KTS

AT VALID 24時間:
231800Z — 24.8N 139.8E
060 KT 、突風075 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
36人事POSITへのベクトル:330 DEG / 06 KTS

VALID AT 36時間:
240600Z — 25.8N 139.1E
065 KT 、突風080 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT – 050 KTのWINDS OF RADIUS
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
48人事POSITへのベクトル:355 DEG / 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK :
AT VALID 48時間:
241800Z — 27.2N 138.9E
070 KT 、突風085 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
064 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
034 KTのWINDS OF RADIUS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
72人事POSITへのベクトル: 035 DEG / 06 KTS

AT VALID 72時間:
251800Z — 29.1N 140.5E
075 KT 、突風090 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
064 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
96人事POSITへのベクトル:050 DEG / 07 KTS

LONG RANGEの見通し:

AT VALID 96時間:
261800Z — 30.8N 143.1E
070 KT 、突風085 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
温帯BECOMING
120人事POSITへのベクトル: 060 DEG / 10 KTS

VALID AT 120時間:
271800Z — 32.7N 147.0E
060 KT 、突風075 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
温帯

備考:
23.3N 141.4E NEAR 222100Z POSITION 。
TROPICAL STORM 19W ( PABUK )は、約104 NM SOUTH場所に配置
TO IWOの南東は、 05ノットで北西追跡して
過去半時間以上。 221800Zで最大有義波高
18フィートです。 230300Z 、 230900Z 、 231500Z AND 232100Z AT NEXT警告。
FOR TROPICAL STORM 17W ( USAGI )警告( WTPN32 PGTW )を参照してくださいSIX –
HOURLY UPDATES 。 / /
NNNN
MARITIME

国立測候所予測OfficeWFOグアム

122
WHGM70 PGUM 220500
MWWGUM

URGENT – 海洋気象のMESSAGE
国立気象SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST日2013年9月22日

PMZ151 > 154から222000 –
/ O.CON.PGUM.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z – 130924T0800Z /
グアム沿岸WATERS – ROTA沿岸WATERS -テニアン近海-
サイパン沿岸WATERS –
300 PM CHST日2013年9月22日

… SMALL CRAFT ADVISORYは、午後6時のCHSTまで有効
火曜日…

20 KT AROUND 7 〜10フィートとSOUTHWEST WINDSの複合SEAS
SHOWERSの高等ガストとのために危険な状態を生成します
小型船舶のオペレータ。

未経験MARINERS …特に営業SMALLER
船舶…これらの条件でBOATING避けるべきです。 TRAVEL BY IF
BOATは、必要な運動の注意IS …とくにREEF線付近
AND入力や港や注入口を残すとき。

&&

$ $
857
WHMY40 PGUM 220500
CFWMY

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCASTは、要求された
COASTALハザードMESSAGE
国立気象SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST日2013年9月22日

GUZ001 -002 -003- 004から222000 –
/ X.CON.PGUM.SU.Y.0007.000000T0000Z – 130924T0800Z /
グアム- ROTA -テニアン – サイパン –
300 PM CHST日2013年9月22日

… HIGH SURFのアドバイザリは午後6時CHST火曜日まで有効…

TOサンゴ礁や7が直面している西は9〜11フィート危険SURF
北向きサンゴ礁9 FEETは火曜日THROUGH持続します。

準備アクション/予防…

露出サンゴ礁やBEACHES NEAR思い切っAVOID …特に
ALONG WESTは、サンゴ礁が直面している… RIP電流は生命を脅かすされる。

&&

857
WHMY40 PGUM 220500
CFWMY

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCASTは、要求された
COASTALハザードMESSAGE
国立気象SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST日2013年9月22日

GUZ001 -002 -003- 004から222000 –
/ X.CON.PGUM.SU.Y.0007.000000T0000Z – 130924T0800Z /
グアム- ROTA -テニアン – サイパン –
300 PM CHST日2013年9月22日

… HIGH SURFのアドバイザリは午後6時CHST火曜日まで有効…

TOサンゴ礁や7が直面している西は9〜11フィート危険SURF
北向きサンゴ礁9 FEETは火曜日THROUGH持続します。

準備アクション/予防…

露出サンゴ礁やBEACHES NEAR思い切っAVOID …特に
ALONG WESTは、サンゴ礁が直面している… RIP電流は生命を脅かすされる。

&&

$ $
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP31は221500をRJTD
WARNING 221500 。
VALID 231500警告。
台風警報。
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1320 PABUK ( 1320 ) 980 HPA
22.9N 141.8E AT小笠原松濤はNORTHWEST 09ノットMOVING 。
POSITIONのFAIR 。
MAXは、中心部に近い50ノットの風。
30 OVER KNOTのWINDSの半径は300から北東に13km離れた半円AND 200
ELSEWHERE MILES 。
50マイル半径24.1N 140.7E AT 230300UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
975 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 55ノット。
70マイルの半径25.0N 139.9E AT 231500UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
970 HPA 、 MAXのWINDS CENTER NEAR 65ノット。

気象庁。 =