SHANGHAI/ China/ South Korea/ Japan: Severe Tropical Storm MITAG 29/1500Z 30.2°N 122.5°E, moving N 11kt. Wind 60kt Gust 85kt 980 hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 01 Oct 2019 1825Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm MITAG (1918, 19W)

SHANGHAI China South Korea Japan be aware

 

 

STS 1918 (Mitag)
Issued at 15:50 UTC, 1 October 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 1 October>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N30°10′ (30.2°)
	E122°30′ (122.5°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure	980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	NE 440 km (240 NM)
	SW 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 2 October>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N32°35′ (32.6°)
	E124°10′ (124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure	985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle	60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 130 km (70 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 2 October>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N34°40′ (34.7°)
	E126°30′ (126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure	990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle	90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 3 October>
Intensity	–
	LOW
Center position of probability circle	N37°50′ (37.8°)
	E130°55′ (130.9°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure	992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle	170 km (90 NM)

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CHINA

Typhoon Message

20191002 01:12

---

National Meteorological Center No.1122

Analysis Time: Oct. 01th 17 UTC

Name of TC: MITAG

Num. of TC: 1918

Current Location: 30.4°N 122.6°E

Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 25m/s（90km/h）

Central Pressure: 985hPa

Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 300km SE 260km SW 200km NW 280km

Forecast movement: next 24hrs MITAG will moving NNE at speed of 25km/h

TAIWAN

 

 

 

2019/10/01 12:00, Severe Tropical Storm MITAG (201918) , Center Location 29.60N 122.20E, Movement: NNE 22KM/HR. Minimum Pressure 975 hpa, Maximum Wind Speed 30m/s, Gust 38m/s, Radius of 15m/s 180km, Radius of 25m/s 60km.

Severe Tropical Storm MITAG (201918)

》Analysis

1200UTC 01 October 2019 Center Location　29.60N　122.20E Movement  N  18km/hr Minimum Pressure  975 hpa Maximum Wind Speed 30 m/s Gust 38 m/s Radius of 15m/s  180km Radius of 25m/s  60km

》Forecast

12 hours valid at: 0000UTC 02 October 2019 Center Position 31.70N 123.40E Vector to 12 HR Position NNE 22 km/hr Minimum Pressure  980 hpa Maximum Wind Speed 28 m/s Gust 35 m/s Radius of 15m/s  180km Radius of 70% probability circle 50km 24 hours valid at: 1200UTC 02 October 2019 Center Position 33.90N 125.40E Vector to 24 HR Position NE 26 km/hr Minimum Pressure  985 hpa Maximum Wind Speed 25 m/s Gust 33 m/s Radius of 15m/s  180km Radius of 70% probability circle 90km 36 hours valid at: 0000UTC 03 October 2019 Center Position 36.10N 127.80E Vector to 36 HR Position NE 27 km/hr Minimum Pressure  988 hpa Maximum Wind Speed 23 m/s Gust 30 m/s Radius of 15m/s  180km Radius of 70% probability circle 130km 48 hours valid at: 1200UTC 03 October 2019 Center Position 37.10N 130.40E Vector to 48 HR Position ENE 21 km/hr Minimum Pressure  992 hpa Maximum Wind Speed 23 m/s Gust 30 m/s Radius of 15m/s  180km Radius of 70% probability circle 170km BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW AT 48 HOURS

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South Korea

No.18 MITAG

Issued at(KST) : 2019.10.02. 01:00

Date(UTC)	Position		Central Pressure (hPa)	Maximum Sustained Wind(m/s)		Radius of 15 m/s(km)	Intensity	Scale	Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 70% probability(km)
	Lat (N)	Lon (E)		m/s	km/h
2019.10.01. 15:00 Analysis	30.5	122.6	980	29	104	330 (WSW 270)	Normal	Medium	NNE	20
2019.10.01. 21:00 Forecast	31.4	123.3	980	29	104	320 (W 260)	Normal	Medium	NE	19	24
2019.10.02. 03:00 Forecast	32.4	124.2	980	29	104	300 (W 230)	Normal	Medium	NE	25	48
2019.10.02. 09:00 Forecast	33.5	125.2	985	27	97	280 (WNW 210)	Normal	Small	NE	25	72
2019.10.02. 15:00 Forecast	34.6	126.5	985	27	97	260 (NW 180)	Normal	Small	NE	28	110
2019.10.02. 21:00 Forecast	35.7	128.0	990	24	86	240 (NW 160)	–	Small	NE	31	125
2019.10.03. 03:00 Forecast	36.8	129.9	992	23	83	220 (NW 140)	–	Small	ENE	36	140
2019.10.03. 09:00 Forecast	37.7	132.4	994	21	76	200 (NW 120)	–	Small	ENE	40	155
2019.10.03. 15:00 Forecast	38.1	135.2	994	21	76				E	42

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TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 1 Oct, 2019 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MITAG is currently located near 30.0 N 122.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). MITAG is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Japan
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Shanghai (31.2 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 96 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 96 hours
    Hangzhou (30.3 N, 120.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

 

 

WTJP31 RJTD 011500
WARNING 011500.
WARNING VALID 021500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1918 MITAG (1918) 980 HPA
AT 30.2N 122.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 32.6N 124.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 34.7N 126.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

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