Japan/ Taiwan/ China: Tropical Storm AMPIL 182100Z position near 19.9N 129.6E, moving ENE 07kt (JTWC) – Published 18 Jul 2018 2255Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm AMPIL 12W

Ryukyu Islands and Okinawa Beware!
Japan, Taiwan and China be aware!

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FL, US)

Tropical Storm 12W (Ampil) Warning #05
Issued at 18/2100Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
181800Z — NEAR 19.7N 129.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 129.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 20.6N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 21.9N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 23.3N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 24.8N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 27.6N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z — 30.3N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z — 32.6N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 129.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 417 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 181800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z
AND 192100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH) FINAL WARNING
(WTPN31 PGTW).//
NNNN

TS 1810 (Ampil)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 18 July 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 18 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N19°05′ (19.1°)
E129°40′ (129.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 440 km (240 NM)
N 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 19 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N21°20′ (21.3°)
E131°10′ (131.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 20 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25°20′ (25.3°)
E128°30′ (128.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 310 km (170 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 21 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N28°30′ (28.5°)
E123°35′ (123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 18 Jul, 2018 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm AMPIL is currently located near 19.7 N 129.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). AMPIL is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shanghai (31.2 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    Hangzhou (30.3 N, 120.2 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP27 RJTD 181800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS FOR NEXT 18 HOURS
PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 39N 153E 52N 167E 47N 171E 40N 165E
35N 158E 39N 153E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 141E 39N 142E
42N 141E 42N 143E 47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 35N
160E 35N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 40N 156E NE 20 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 46N 161E NE 20 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 10N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 34N 127E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 42N 146E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 39N 180E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1810 AMPIL (1810) 996 HPA AT 19.1N 129.7E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1809 SON-TINH (1809) 994 HPA AT 18.8N 105.6E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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Ryukyu Islands (esp Miyako and Yaeyama Islands)/ Okinawa/ Amami Islands/ Taiwan/ China: Typhoon MARIA 10W 10/1500Z position nr 25.5N 123.2E, moving WNW 15kt (JTWC) – Updated 10 Jul 2018 1440Z (GMT/UTC)


Typhoon MARIA 10W

MARIA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Ryukyu Islands (esp Miyako and Yaeyama Islands)/ Okinawa/ Amami Islands/ Taiwan/ China BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 28 FEET- JTWC

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 10W (Maria) Warning #32
Issued at 10/1500Z

wp1018310w_101200sair

Google Earth Overlay
WTPN32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (MARIA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 25.2N 124.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 124.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 26.3N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 27.5N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 29.0N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 30.4N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 25.5N 123.2E.
TYPHOON 10W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 141 NM EAST OF TAIPEI,
TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

 

 

(JMA is the lead agency in this area)

1808-003

 

>>>> http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

TY 1808 (Maria)
Issued at 13:45 UTC, 10 July 2018

<Analysis at 13 UTC, 10 July>
Scale
Intensity Very strong
Center position N25°25′ (25.4°)
E123°50′ (123.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 240 km (130 NM)
W 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 500 km (270 NM)
W 280 km (150 NM)
<Estimate for 14 UTC, 10 July>
Scale
Intensity Very strong
Center position N25°30′ (25.5°)
E123°30′ (123.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 240 km (130 NM)
W 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 500 km (270 NM)
W 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 11 July>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N26°20′ (26.3°)
E120°30′ (120.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area E 300 km (160 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 11 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27°10′ (27.2°)
E116°55′ (116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 12 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N30°50′ (30.8°)
E113°00′ (113.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

CHINA

eng_nmc_tcbu_sfer_eme_acwp_l89_pf_20180710200000017

Typhoon Message
20180710 22:03

National Meteorological Center No.1975
Analysis Time: Jul. 10th 14 UTC
Name of TC: MARIA
Num. of TC: 1808
Current Location: 25.5°N 123.6°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 50m/s(180km/h)
Central Pressure: 940hPa
Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 550km SE 450km SW 270km NW 350km
Radius of 50knots Winds: NE 200km SE 150km SW 100km NW 150km
Radius of 64knots Winds: NE 60km SE 60km SW 40km NW 60km
Forecast movement: next 24hrs MARIA will moving WNW at speed of 30km/h

 

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Jul, 2018 6:00 GMT

Typhoon MARIA is currently located near 24.6 N 125.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 110 kts (127 mph). MARIA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. MARIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Nanchang (28.7 N, 115.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Hangzhou (30.3 N, 120.2 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Wuhan (30.6 N, 114.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above wind:

 

Other

DrR m10

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

Location of Ryukyu Islands( 📷 Uchinanchu/wikimedia)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP22 RJTD 101200
WARNING 101200.
WARNING VALID 111200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1808 MARIA (1808) 940 HPA
AT 25.2N 124.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 26.3N 120.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 27.2N 116.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 30.8N 113.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWHK82 VHHH 101200
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
SEVERE TYPHOON (ST) MARIA (1808):
R OF HURRICANES:60NM.
R OF STORMS:120NM.
R OF GALES:210NM.
SYNOPSIS (101200UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
SUPER TYPHOON MARIA (1808) HAS WEAKENED INTO A ST. AT
101200UTC, MARIA WITH CENTRAL P 955HPA AND MAX WINDS 90KT
WAS CENTERED WITHIN 30NM OF 25.2N 124.0E AND IS FC TO MOVE
WNW AT ABOUT 16KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FC POS AT 111200UTC: 27.3N, 116.7E
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6M,10M,14M OVER GALES,STORMS,HURRICANES.
SWELL E TO NE 5-7M OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN AND LUZON STRAIT.
SWELL SE 5-7M OVER EAST CHINA SEA.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FRQ HEAVY SQ SH AND TS WITHIN 240 NM FROM CENTRE OF MARIA
(1808).
SCT SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES, SEAS NEAR
MALAYSIA.
ISOL SQ SH AND TS OVER N PART OF SCS, GULF OF THAILAND AND
GULF OF TONKIN.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VIS 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

 

WWCI50 BABJ 100600
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1015UTC JUL.10 2018=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC JUL.10=
FCST VALID 0600UTC JUL.11=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
SUPERTY MARIA 1808(1808) 935HPA AT 24.7N 125.6E
MVG WNW 30KMH AND MAX WINDS 52M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 12.0M)
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
550KM NE
450KM SE
270KM SW
350KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
200KM NE
150KM SE
100KM SW
150KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 64KTS WINDS
70KM NE
50KM SE
40KM SW
70KM NW
AND FCST FOR 110600UTC AT 26.7N 118.6E 982HPA
AND MAX WINDS 28M/S NEAR CENTER=SUMMARY=
SE WINDS FROM 08 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.0M OVER SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.0M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 22 TO 32M/S SEAS UP TO 6.0M
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
AND SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 33 TO 50M/S SEAS UP TO 10.0M
OVER SEA NEAR CENTRAL OF MARIA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER YELLOW
SEA AND KOREA STRAIT AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF
JAPAN SEA AND SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS AND
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA AND
SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA STRAIT AND
MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT SULAWESI AND LAUT BANDA=
FCST=
NORTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
S WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD TO SLT
RAINSTORM BECMG DOWNPOUR VIS MOD TO POOR=
CENTRAL PART OF YELLOW SEA
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE SLT MOD RAIN
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD TO GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
E WINDS VEER SE 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA
STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
CYCLONIC WINDS 29 TO 36M/S GUSTS 32 TO 41M/S SEA
STATE VERY ROUGH DOWNPOUR VIS POOR=
TAIWAN STRAIT
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SW
WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA STATE MOD
HVY RAIN BECMG DOWNPOUR VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
CYCLONIC WINDS 25 TO 32M/S GUSTS 29 TO 36M/S BECMG
S WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S SEA STATE
VERY ROUGH DOWNPOUR VIS POOR TO MOD=
BASHI CHANNEL
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS GOOD=
QIONGZHOU STRAIT
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE SLT TO SMOOTH
MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
MOD MOD RAIN BECMG HVY RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD HVY RAIN
VIS MOD=
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
CYCLONIC WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S BECMG
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH TO MOD DOWNPOUR BECMG MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SE
WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD
MOD RAIN BECMG HVY RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD DOWNPOUR
BECMG MOD RAIN VIS GOOD=
MALACCA STRAIT
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE SMOOTH MOD RAIN
VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD HVY RAIN VIS MOD=
GULF OF THAILAND
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT HVY RAIN VIS MOD=
ANDAMAN SEA
W WINDS BACK SW 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE MOD HVY RAIN BECMG RAINSTORM VIS MOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Taiwan/ Japan/ China: Typhoon Nesat 11W 290900Z 23.9°N 122.4°E, moving NNW 20 km/h (11 kt) (JMA)- Updated 29 Jul 2017 1130z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Nesat 11W

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

⚠️ Taiwan, Ishigaki Island, Ryukyu Islands (Japan) and China BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z  IS 32 FEET- JTWC

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

Himawari 8 near real time (link)

TY 1709 (Nesat)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 29 July 2017

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 29 July>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N23°55′ (23.9°)
E122°25′ (122.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 390 km (210 NM)
N 280 km (150 NM)
<Estimate for 10 UTC, 29 July>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N24°05′ (24.1°)
E122°20′ (122.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 390 km (210 NM)
N 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 29 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N24°50′ (24.8°)
E119°30′ (119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (35 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 140 km (75 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 30 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25°05′ (25.1°)
E118°10′ (118.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 100 km (55 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27°35′ (27.6°)
E118°20′ (118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 1 August>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N29°30′ (29.5°)
E117°35′ (117.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 11W (Nesat) Warning #14
Issued at 29/0900Z

 

 

WTPN34 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (NESAT) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
290600Z — NEAR 23.3N 122.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 122.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 24.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 25.0N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 25.6N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 27.2N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 31.4N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 122.2E.
TYPHOON 11W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (TWELVE)WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Jul, 2017 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NESAT is currently located near 23.3 N 122.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). NESAT is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NESAT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

(Image: JMA)

 

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 290900

WTJP34 RJTD 290900
WARNING 290900.
WARNING VALID 300900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1709 NESAT (1709) 960 HPA
AT 23.9N 122.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 24.8N 119.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 25.1N 118.2E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

#Sanba is now an area of low pressure nr N44°00′ E133°00′ at 0050Z – Updated 18 Sept 2012 0950Z

xxx

(Image: wunderground.com)
Five Day Forecast Map
(Click image for source)

(Image: JMA)
Satellite East Asia Infrared
(Click image for animation/source)

(Image: JMA)
JAPAN Currently valid Warnings/Advisories
(Click image for source)

(Image: KMA)
South Korea Radar: Real Time
(Click image for animation/source)

18 Sept 2012 This is the last update for Sanba.

Typhoon Sanba Reaches Vladivostok, Russia – Floods city streets. Over ten streets were flooded in Vladivostok as typhoon Sanba reached the Russian Far Eastern city bringing there one third of monthly rainfalls norm. The Sanba emerged on September 10 near the shores of Philippines and before reaching Vladivostok it battered Japan and two Koreas leaving dozens of people homeless and cutting electricity power supplies. The administration of Vladivostok and the local emergencies services did not report any casualties and damages, but said that the storm caused a mudslide in the city, which temporarily disrupted a train connection between two local stations. Schools and kindergartens in Vladivostok continue working as usually, but it is up to parents to decide whether to take their children there during the storm. According to meteorologists, heavy rains will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday in the region with wind gusts reaching 23-28 meters per second.
Powerful typhoon Sanba lashed North and South Korea with strong wind and heavy rain, killing two people in landslides, leaving hundreds of others homeless and triggering blackouts in the South, officials said Tuesday. In North Korea, rain drenched parts of the country, including the eastern coastal city of Wonsan, but did not reach the capital, Pyongyang, which was windy Monday but spared the heavy rains that lashed the South Korean capital.
Sanba, which battered southern South Korea around midday Monday, pushed northward and moved into eastern waters, where it weakened and lost energy on Tuesday morning. North Korea didn’t get a direct hit but was affected by the storm’s outer bands. More than 3,700 homes and shops in South Korea remained without power Tuesday but officials were expected to restore power later in the day. A woman died in a landslide in southeastern South Korea, and a man died in a separate landslide. Two people were injured and about 560 people were left homeless.
Before reaching South Korea, the storm hit Japan. One man drowned in high waves, about 67,000 homes in southwestern Japan lost power and some areas flooded. There were no immediate official reports from North Korea on whether the storm caused any damage there. Dozens there were killed in a typhoon last month, and the country suffered flooding and drought earlier in the year.”  – http://globaldisasterwatch.blogspot.co.uk

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

18 Sept 2012 No warnings

17 Sept 2012

.wtpn31 pgtw 170900
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical storm 17w (sanba) warning nr 027
   downgraded from typhoon 17w
01 active tropical cyclone in northwestpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
wind radii valid over open water only

warning position:
170600z — near 36.0n 128.6e
movement past six hours – 010 degrees at 20 kts
position accurate to within 020 nm
position based on center located by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds – 045 kt, gusts 055 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
becoming extratropical
repeat posit: 36.0n 128.6e

forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
171800z — 40.7n 130.0e
Max sustained winds – 030 kt, gusts 040 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
extratropical
vector to 24 hr posit: 015 deg/ 25 kts

24 hrs, valid at:
180600z — 45.6n 131.6e
Max sustained winds – 020 kt, gusts 030 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
extratropical

remarks:
170900z position near 37.2n 128.9e.
Tropical storm 17w (sanba), located approximately 10 nm northwest of
taegu, south Korea, has made landfall and accelerated
north-northeastward at 20 knots over the past six hours. The initial
position and intensity were based on animated radar imagery from the
korean meteorological agency and from surface observations from taegu
that reported maximum winds 0f 24 gusting to 40 knots at 170400z. Ts
17w is currently at the base of the taebaek mountain range and poised
to ramp up the high and very rugged terrain. Upper level analysis
indicates the system is now embedded in the baroclinic zone and
undergoing extratropical transition. It is expected to become a cold
core low after its remnants emerge back in the Sea of Japan by tau
12.  The alternate scenario is that the system will dissipate over
land. The available numerical guidance is in tight agreement and
lends high confidence to this track forecast. This is the final
warning on this system by the joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi.
The system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration.    //

Korean:

wtpn31 pgtw 170900
msgid/genadmin/공동 태풍 wrncen 진주 항구 안녕 / /
subj/열 대 사이 클론 경고 / /
rmks /
1. 열 대 폭풍 17w (sanba) 경고 nr 027
태풍 17w에서 다운 그레이드
northwestpac에서 01 활성 열 대 사이 클론
최대 1 분 평균을 기반으로 하는 바람을 지속
유효한 바람 반지름 이상 오픈 워터만

경고 위치:
170600z—36.0n 근처 128.6e
과거 6 시간-20 kts에서 010도 운동
020 내 위치 nm
위치 기반으로 위성 센터
현재 바람 분포:
최대 지속 바람-045 kt, 풍속 055 kt
유효한 바람 반지름 이상 오픈 워터만
온대 되기
반복 멋 부리 다: 36.0n 128.6e

예측:
12 시간에 유효한:
171800z—40.7n 130.0e
최대 지속 바람-030 kt, 풍속 040 kt
유효한 바람 반지름 이상 오픈 워터만
온대
24 시간 하는 벡터 멋 부리 다: 015 deg / 25 kts

24 시간에 유효한:
180600z—45.6n 131.6e
최대 지속 바람-020 kt, 풍속 030 kt
유효한 바람 반지름 이상 오픈 워터만
온대

설명:
37.2n 근처 170900z 위치 128.9e.
열 대 폭풍 17w (sanba)에 위치한 약 10 nm 북서쪽의
대구, 한국, 육지 접근을 만든 있으며 가속
북한-northeastward 지난 6 시간 동안 20 노트에서. 초기
위치와 강도에서 애니메이션된 레이더 이미지에 기반 했다 합니다
한국 기상 기관 및 대구에서 표면 관찰에서
그는 최대 바람 0f 24 gusting 170400z에서 40 노트를 보고. Ts
17w 현재 태백 산맥의 기본 및 태세입니다.
높고 매우 거친 지형 방면 진입로. 상위 수준 분석
시스템은 baroclinic 영역에 포함 된 지금 나타냅니다 및
온대 전환을 겪고 있다. 감기 될 예정입니다.
코어 낮은 그것의 잔재 타우에 의해 일본 해에서 다시 등장 하는 후
12. 대체 시나리오는 시스템을 통해 낭비 것입니다.
토지입니다. 사용 가능한 숫자 지침 꽉 계약에는 고
예보이 트랙에 높은 자신감을 빌려준다. 이것은 최종
경고이 시스템에 의해 공동 태풍 wrncen 진주만 안녕하세요.
중생의 징후에 대 한 시스템을 밀접 하 게 모니터링 될 것 이다. //

Japan Meteorological agency
1216 1216 1216

LOW
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 18 September 2012

<Analyses at 18/00 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
LOW
Center position N44°00′(44.0°)
E133°00′(133.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45km/h(25kt)
Central pressure 994hPa

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Sep, 2012 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm SANBA (17W) currently located near 36.0 N 128.6 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Korean:

NW 태평양: 폭풍 경고에서 9 월 17 일, 2012 6시 GMT (최종 경고)

열 대 폭풍 SANBA (17W) 현재 36.0 128.6 N E 근처에 땅을 다음 likelihood(s) 주어진된 리드 행위가 공격 전망 이다:
노란색 경고 Country(s) 또는 조건이
대한민국
TS에 대 한 확률은 현재 90% 이다.
노란색 경고 도시 (들) 및 Town(s)
대구 (35.9 128.6 N E)
TS에 대 한 확률은 현재 90% 이다.
부산 (35.2 129.1 N E)
TS에 대 한 확률은 현재 70 %

Note는
노란색 경고 (상승)는 고양이 1 또는 위의 하 10%, 30% 확률 또는 위의 50% 확률에 TS 사이.
고양이 1 적어도 74 mph, 119 km/h 또는 64 노트 1 분 지속의 태풍 힘 바람을 의미 합니다.
TS는 적어도 39 mph, 63 km/h 또는 34 노트 1 분 지속의 열 대 폭풍 강도 바람을 의미 합니다.

그래픽 예측된 정보 및 자세한 내용은 방문 하시기 바랍니다 http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com//
Press:

Stars & Stripes

By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 15, 2012 (Times are Japan Time)

Kadena has already been feeling 25-mph winds and 41-mph gusts. Ginowan, near Camp Foster and Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, reported a 43-mph gust.

It’s bound to get worse before it gets better, folks. This is a very well-organized storm, with deep convective banding and a very well-defined eye about 29 miles wide. The eye will pass about 14 miles east of Kadena at about 5 a.m., during which time one might note that the winds and rain have ceased and the dawn coming up like thunder (although your eardrums might feel like they do when you’re on a commercial jet). Again, avoid any and all temptation to go outside. The back-side winds, in the opposite direction and likely more fierce than before, will kick in at any time.

Latest wind timeline courtesy of Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

— Sustained 35-mph winds, 8 p.m. Saturday.
— Sustained 40-mph winds, 10 p.m. Saturday.
— Sustained 58-mph winds, 2 a.m. Sunday.
— Maximum 115-mph sustained winds, 144-mph gusts, 5 a.m. Sunday.
— Winds receding below 58 mph, 2 p.m. Sunday.
— Winds receding below 40 mph, 7 p.m. Sunday.
— Winds receding below 35 mph, 9 p.m. Sunday.

Full story: http://www.stripes.com/reporters/dave-ornauer?author=Dave_Ornauer

Japanese:

キーを押します。
スター & ストライプ
デイブ Ornauer によって
公開日: 2012 年 9 月 15 日 (時間は日本時間)
嘉手納すでに 41 マイル突風と 25 マイルの風を感じています。宜野湾キャンプ ・ フォスターと普天間海兵隊航空近く 43 マイル突風を報告しました。
良いを取得する前に悪化するバインド、人々。これは深い対流バンドとは非常に明確に定義された目幅約 29 マイルの非常によく組織化の嵐です。目は時間の 1 つ、風と雨が停止していることに注意してくださいかもしれないと雷のような (あなたの鼓膜は、商業ジェットにいるときと同様感じるかもしれないが) 来る夜明けの中に約 14 マイルについて 5、嘉手納の東を通過します。また、外に任意およびすべての誘惑を避けます。背中側は、反対の方向と可能性が以前よりもより激しい風ないつでもがキックされます。
最新のタイムライン嘉手納の 18 翼天気飛行礼儀風します。
― 持続的な 35 mph の風、20 土曜日。
― 持続的な 40 マイルの風、22 土曜日。
― 持続的な 58 マイルの風、2 日曜日。
― 持続的な最大 115 マイル、5 日曜日 144 マイル突風の風します。
-14 日曜日 58 マイル以下の後退風。
- 以下 40 マイル、19 日曜日を後退風。
-21 日 35 mph 以下の後退風。
16 Sept 2012:

“Typhoon Sanba (Bagyong Karen) is now moving across the East China Sea and is aiming for the Korean Peninsula. Sanba was last located approximately 360km north of Okinawa or about 420km south southeast of Jeju Island in South Korea. Maximum sustained winds are at 175kph with gusts of up to 215kph making Sanba a Category 2 Typhoon. Sanba is moving northward at 30kph…….

Latest satellite image shows a slowly degrading appearance of Sanba. The eye is still well-defined though and convective activity is still relatively strong. The overall organization, however, is starting to become asymmetrical and is becoming more sheared as upper-level winds start to increase in this region. Together with the increasing wind shear, water temperatures in the East China Sea are getting colder and will lead to more weakening overnight……
For now though, rains are still impacting parts of the Ryukyu Islands including Amami. Radar from JMA showing the eastern bands from the storm impacting Kyushu Island as well with rainfall amounts of about 50mm or so. Winds of around 80kph are also still being reported in many places. However, for the most part, we expect the weather to continue improving in Okinawa and nearby areas tonight and into tomorrow.”
17 Sept 2012:
 KMA forecasts 232.5 mm (9.1 inches) Rain for Bukchangwon, South Korea today
 KMA 예측 232.5 m m (9.1 인치) 비 Bukchangwon, 한국에 대 한 오늘
1040 GMT/UTC @hohocho: According to YTN, Typhoon Sanba now moves out to East sea, near Gangneung, S.Korea as of 1920 KST.
YTN에 따라 태풍 Sanba 지금 이동 밖으로 동해, 강릉, 근처 1920 KST로 구

Evan Duffey, Meteorologist at AccuWeather.com
Sep 17, 2012; 5:38 AM ET

“Damaging winds, flooding rains and rough surf will continue to accompany the storm as it moves inland over South Korea on Monday. The storm should pass close enough to Kyushu to bring impacts to that Japanese island as well.

Later Monday, Sanba will likely move briefly back over the Sea of Japan before making yet another landfall in far northeastern North Korea.”

에 반 Duffey, 나눔에 기상학자
9 월 17 일, 2012; 동부 표준시 오전 5 시 38 분
“폭우와 거친 서핑 홍수 피해 바람이 계속 이동 내륙 한국에 월요일에 폭풍을 동반. 폭풍 뿐만 아니라 그 일본 섬에 영향을가지고 규슈에 충분히 가까이 전달 해야 합니다.
이후 월요일 Sanba 것입니다 가능성이 간략하게 다시 위로 이동 일본 해까지 북동부 북한에서 또 다른 상륙 하기 전에. “

TYPHOON MAWAR – 3 dead, 6 missing – Published 4 June 2012 2115 GMT/UTC

(Image: JMA)
TYPHOON MAWAR (JMA)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 4 June 2012
(Click image to go to JMA)

7 June 2012: MOST OF THIS INFORMATION IS NOW OUT OF DATE!

 

(Image: wunderground.com)
Image Satellite 1939 GMT/UTC 4 June 2012 0439 JST 5 June 2012
(Click image to visit wunderground.com)

(Image: wunderground.com)
Typhoon Mawar 0300 JST 5 June 2012
(Click image to visit wunderground.com)

(Image JMA)
Japan
(Click image to visit JMA)

TYPHOON MAWAR (Japan Meteorological Agency)
Issued at 18:45 GMT/UTC, 4 June 2012

<Analyses at 04/1800 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N2430′(24.5) E12830′(128.5)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE520km(280NM)
NW240km(130NM)

<Estimate for 04/1900 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N2440′(24.7) E12835′(128.6)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE520km(280NM)
NW240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 05/0600 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N2640′(26.7) E13130′(131.5)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 05/1800 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N2905′(29.1) E13525′(135.4)
Direction and speed of movement NE 40km/h(21kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM

<Forecast for 06/1800 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N3435′(34.6) E14520′(145.3)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45km/h(25kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 07/18 UTC>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N4040′(40.7) E15150′(151.8)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

Press Reports

Three dead, six missing as typhoon passes Philippines

Inside Bay Area: Typhoon leaves 2 dead, 5 missing in Philippines

CNN: Stormy weather over Manila, Philippines