Tropical Storm Hato 03A 211500Z position nr 20.8N 122.5E, moving WNW 09kt (JTWC) – Updated 21 Aug 2017 1512z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Hato 03A

(“” in PH)

  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS  10 FEET.(JTWC)

wp201715

(Image: @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 15W (Hato) Warning #07
Issued at 21/1500Z

wp151715w_211200sair

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
211200Z — NEAR 20.7N 123.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 123.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 21.3N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 22.0N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 22.9N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 23.6N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 24.4N 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 122.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.//
NNNN

1713-00

99

TS 1713 (Hato)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 21 August 2017

Scale
Intensity
Center position N20°20′ (20.3°)
E122°50′ (122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 280 km (150 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N20°55′ (20.9°)
E120°30′ (120.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N21°30′ (21.5°)
E117°30′ (117.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23°25′ (23.4°)
E111°25′ (111.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N24°25′ (24.4°)
E105°10′ (105.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)

 

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 21 Aug, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HATO is currently located near 20.7 N 123.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). HATO is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    China
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201715w

(Image: TSR)

201715w_0

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

17082121METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 211200

WTJP21 RJTD 211200
WARNING 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1713 HATO (1713) 990 HPA
AT 20.3N 122.8E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 20.9N 120.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 21.5N 117.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 23.4N 111.4E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 24.4N 105.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Caribbean: Tropical Storm Harvey 19/1500Z nr 13.9N 68.1W, moving W 19kt (NHC FL) – Published 19 Aug 2017 1625z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Harvey

……HARVEY STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT LESS ORGANIZED THAN
YESTERDAY……NHC FL

⚠️ Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea, northern
Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Harvey. Watches may be
required for portions of these areas later today (NHC FL)

at201709_5day Harvey 19 wund

(Image: @wunderground)

at201709_sat sat harv wund

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

145608_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind

000
WTNT34 KNHC 191447
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017

…HARVEY STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT LESS ORGANIZED THAN
YESTERDAY…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…13.9N 68.1W
ABOUT 125 MI…205 KM NNE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 1010 MI…1630 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea, northern
Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Harvey. Watches may be
required for portions of these areas later today.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 68.1 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue through Sunday. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Harvey will move across the central and western
Caribbean Sea over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that Harvey is currently poorly organized,
and only slow strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the northwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter
data and data from NOAA buoy 42059 is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Locally heavy rain could occur today over Aruba, Bonaire,
and Curacao.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

=============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 9 Aug, 2017 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HARVEY is currently located near 13.9 N 68.1 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). HARVEY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Honduras
        probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours
    Nicaragua
        probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201709n

(Image: TSR)

201709n_0

(Image: TSR)

=============================================================================

Harvey Buffets Windward Islands En Route to Caribbean
Bob Henson  ·  August 18, 2017, 5:35 PM

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/harvey-buffets-windward-islands-en-route-caribbean

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3

(Image: NHC FL)

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 191447

WTNT24 KNHC 191447
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN
NICARAGUA…NORTHERN HONDURAS…BELIZE…AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY. WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 68.1W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 68.1W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 67.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.1N 70.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.4N 74.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.9N 78.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.7N 82.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT… 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.5N 88.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT… 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 19.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 19.5N 93.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 68.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

 

=============================================================================

000
FZNT02 KNHC 191500
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT AUG 19.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN AUG 20.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON AUG 21.

.WARNINGS.

…CARIBBEAN TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM HARVEY NEAR 13.9N 68.1W 1007 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG
19 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 19 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 45 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 13N66W TO 14N70W TO 16N70W TO 17N68W TO
18N66W TO 16N64W TO 13N66W…INCLUDING IN ATLANTIC
PASSAGES…WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM HARVEY NEAR 14.4N 74.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH
SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 12N72W TO
12N74W TO 14N76W TO 17N75W TO 18N72W TO 17N71W TO 12N72W…
INCLUDING WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST OF COLOMBIA…WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM HARVEY NEAR 15.7N 82.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT…50 NM SE QUADRANT…40 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90
NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 17 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 12N80W TO 14N82W TO 17N83W TO
19N82W TO 19N81W TO 17N77W TO 12N80W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM HARVEY NEAR 17.5N 88.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY NEAR 19.0N 91.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM HARVEY NEAR 19.5N 93.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 15N50W TO 18N58W TO 19N63W TO
20N64W TO 24N58W TO 22N50W TO 15N50W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SE AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 21N56W TO 19N58W TO
19N62W TO 24N67W TO 26N63W TO 25N60W TO 21N56W E TO SE WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 24N69W TO 23N70W TO
25N72W TO 26N72W TO 26N70W TO 25N69W TO 24N69W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL.

.ATLC WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 14N35W TO 13N38W TO 15N50W TO
22N50W TO 23N41W TO 19N35W TO 14N35W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 17N46W TO 18N52W TO
19N54W TO 22N50W TO 22N44W TO 20N43W TO 17N46W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 21N50W TO 20N53W TO
22N56W TO 24N55W TO 26N52W TO 25N49W TO 21N50W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

.ATLC 12 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 21N73W TO 21N70W TO
20N70W TO 20N73W TO 21N73W…INCLUDING APPROACH TO WINDWARD
PASSAGE…NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ATLC 48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 18N35W TO 20N36W
TO 21N36W TO 23N35W TO 18N35W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT
IN MIXED SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

=============================================================================

000
FZNT23 KNHC 191457
OFFNT3

Offshore Waters Forecast for the SW and Tropical N Atlantic and
Caribbean Sea
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Tropical N Atlantic from 07N to
22N between 55W and 64W, the SW N Atlantic S of 31N W of 65W
including Bahamas, and the Caribbean Sea.

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

AMZ001-200300-
Synopsis for Caribbean Sea and Tropical N Atlantic from 07N to
19N between 55W and 64W
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS…Tropical Storm Harvey is centered near 13.9N 68.1W
1007 mb at 1500 UTC moving W at 19 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Harvey will continue W to WNW across
the southern Caribbean and reach near 14.1N 70.9W this evening,
14.4N 74.9W Sun morning, 14.9N 78.7W Sun evening, 15.7N 82.4W Mon
morning, then 17.5N 88.0W Tue morning near the coast of Belize,
moving inland thereafter.
$$

AMZ011-200300-
Caribbean N of 18N W of 85W including Yucatan Basin-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON THROUGH TUE…

.TODAY…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning,
subsiding to 2 ft or less. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less,
building to 3 ft late.
.MON…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.MON NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.TUE NIGHT…In Yucatan Channel, E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Elsewhere, E to SE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 11 ft.
.WED…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft, subsiding to 4 ft
in the afternoon.

$$

AMZ013-200300-
Caribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including Cayman Basin-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON THROUGH MON NIGHT…

.TODAY…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft Between Cuba
and Jamaica, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.MON…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
Between Cuba and Jamaica, E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6
ft. Elsewhere, E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE…Between Cuba and Jamaica, E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas
3 ft. Elsewhere, E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft Between Cuba and
Jamaica, and 5 to 6 ft elsewhere.
.WED…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ015-200300-
Caribbean Approaches to the Windward Passage-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TODAY…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.SUN…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

AMZ017-200300-
Gulf of Honduras-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON THROUGH TUE…

.TODAY…N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT…NE winds 5 to 10 kt S of 17N W of 87W, and NE 10 to
15 kt elsewhere. Seas 3 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.SUN…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning, subsiding
to 2 ft or less. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less,
building to 3 ft late.
.MON…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
S of 17N W of 87W, E winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to N to NE 10 to
15 kt in the afternoon,Seas 2 ft or less. Elsewhere, NE winds 10
to 15 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft,
building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.MON NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.TUE NIGHT…SE to S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.WED…S to SW winds 10 to 15 kt S of 17N W of 87W, and SE 10 to
15 kt elsewhere. Seas 5 to 7 ft.

$$

AMZ019-200300-
Caribbean from 15N to 18N between 80W and 85W-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TODAY…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt,becoming NE 45 to 50 kt late. Seas 4
ft, building to 11 ft late. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.MON…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
E winds 45 to 50 kt. Seas 14 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.MON NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.TUE…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.WED…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

AMZ021-200300-
Caribbean from 15N to 18N between 72W and 80W-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TODAY…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
NE to E winds 30 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 12 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
E to SE winds 35 to 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.MON…E to SE winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in
the afternoon. Seas 8 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

AMZ023-200300-
Caribbean N of 15N between 64W and 72W-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TODAY…E winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…E winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 11 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…E to SE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.MON…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

AMZ025-200300-
Offshore Waters Leeward Islands-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TODAY…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt in ATLC Exposures and
Passages, and E to SE 10 to 15 kt elsewhere. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

AMZ027-200300-
Tropical N Atlantic from 15N to 19N between 55W and 60W-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TODAY…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft.
.SUN…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.MON…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.WED…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

AMZ029-200300-
W Central Caribbean from 11N to 15N W of 80W-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TODAY…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
Within 60 nm of coast of Nicaragua, NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3
ft. Elsewhere, NE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming N to NE 40 to 45
kt late. Seas 5 ft, building to 10 ft late.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.MON…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
N winds 30 to 35 kt, becoming SE 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft Within 60 nm of coast of Nicaragua, and 11 to 14 ft
elsewhere. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

AMZ031-200300-
Caribbean from 11N to 15N between 72W and 80W including Colombia
Basin-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TODAY…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
Within 90 nm of coast of Colombia, NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4
ft, building to 7 ft late. Elsewhere, NE to E winds 20 to 25 kt,
becoming NE 30 to 35 kt late. Seas 5 ft, building to 10 ft late.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
Within 90 nm of coast of Colombia, S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8
to 9 ft. Elsewhere, E winds 35 to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
Within 90 nm of coast of Colombia, S to SW winds 10 to 15 kt,
shifting to E to SE late. Elsewhere, SE winds 35 to 45 kt.
Seas 6 to 7 ft Within 90 nm of coast of Colombia, and 10 to 11
ft elsewhere. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.MON…Within 90 nm of coast of Colombia, NE to E winds 10 to
15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt.
Seas 7 to 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

AMZ033-200300-
Caribbean S of 15N between 64W and 72W including Venezuela Basin-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TODAY…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS.
N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt Gulf of Venezuela, and E to SE 30 to 35
kt elsewhere. Seas 9 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
Gulf of Venezuela, N winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E late.
Elsewhere, E winds 30 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 11 ft.
.SUN…E winds 10 to 15 kt Gulf of Venezuela, and E to SE 20 to
25 kt elsewhere. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt Gulf of Venezuela, and E
15 to 20 kt elsewhere. Seas 6 ft.
.MON…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt Gulf of Venezuela, and E 15 to
20 kt elsewhere. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt Gulf of Venezuela, and E 15 to
20 kt elsewhere. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NE winds 10 to 15 kt Gulf of Venezuela, and E 15 to
20 kt elsewhere. Seas 5 ft.
.WED…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt Gulf of Venezuela, and E to SE
15 to 20 kt elsewhere. Seas 5 ft.

$$

AMZ035-200300-
Offshore Waters Windward Islands including Trindad and Tobago-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TODAY…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

AMZ037-200300-
Tropical N Atlantic from 07N to 15N between 55W and 60W-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TODAY…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

AMZ039-200300-
SW Caribbean S of 11N including Approaches to Panama Canal-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TODAY…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…NW winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to S to SW in the
afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.MON…SE to S winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE…S of 10N, NE winds 5 kt, shifting to NW in the afternoon.
Elsewhere, NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NW to N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED…N winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to SW to W in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft.

$$

AMZ101-200300-
Synopsis for the SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS…The northern part of a strong tropical wave moving
between the western Bahamas and the Florida peninsula will continue
W into the Straits of Florida through tonight, accompanied by
fresh to locally strong winds and active weather. A strong
tropical wave in the tropical Atlc will pass N of the Leeward
Islands tonight and reach the southern Bahamas by early Mon
bringing strong winds and building seas to the waters S of 25N.
A ridge along 28N will move N of the area early next week.

$$

AMZ111-200300-
Atlantic from 27N to 31N W of 77W-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TODAY…S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft in
E to SE swell.
.WED…SE to S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ113-200300-
Atlantic from 27N to 31N between 70W and 77W-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TODAY…SE to S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…SE to S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.MON…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft in
E to SE swell.
.WED…SE to S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ115-200300-
Atlantic from 27N to 31N between 65W and 70W-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TODAY…SE to S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SUN…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.MON…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in
E to SE swell.
.TUE…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft in E to SE swell.
.TUE NIGHT…N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.WED…N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…NW winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft in
E to SE swell.

$$

AMZ117-200300-
Bahamas including Cay Sal Bank-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TODAY…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft ATLC Exposures,
and 3 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft ATLC
Exposures, and 3 to 4 ft elsewhere. Scattered thunderstorms.
.SUN…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft ATLC Exposures, and
4 ft elsewhere.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft ATLC Exposures, and
4 to 5 ft elsewhere.
.MON…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft ATLC Exposures, and 4 ft
elsewhere.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft ATLC Exposures, and
4 ft elsewhere.
.TUE…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft ATLC Exposures, and
3 ft elsewhere.
.TUE NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft ATLC
Exposures, and 3 ft elsewhere.
.WED…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft ATLC Exposures, and
3 ft elsewhere.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

AMZ119-200300-
Atlantic from 22N to 27N E of Bahamas to 70W-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TODAY…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Scattered thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SUN…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft in
E to SE swell.
.TUE…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.WED…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
$$

AMZ121-200300-
Atlantic from 22N to 27N between 65W and 70W-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TODAY…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SUN…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft in
E to SE swell.
.WED…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft in E swell.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

AMZ123-200300-
Atlantic S of 22N W of 70W including Approaches to the Windward
Passage-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TODAY…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

AMZ125-200300-
Atlantic S of 22N between 65W and 70W including Puerto Rico
Trench-
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TODAY…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
.SUN…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.WED…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft in E swell.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

AMZ127-200300-
Atlantic from 19N to 22N between 55W and 65W-
1048 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TODAY…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in E swell.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft in E swell.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft in E swell.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft.
.MON…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft in
E swell.
.TUE…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft in E swell.
.WED…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft in E swell.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
$$

Forecaster Lewitsky

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Gert 17/1500Z nr 43.2N 50.0W, moving ENE 35 knots(NHC FL) – Updated 17 Aug 2017 1500z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE GERT

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

……..GERT RACING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY……NHC FL

⚠️ Life-threatening surf and
rip currents will continue to affect the NE coastof US and Atlantic Canada through
tonight.

at201708 Hurr Gert wund

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

143921_5day_cone_with_line_and_windNHC

000
WTNT33 KNHC 171433
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gert Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

…GERT RACING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…43.2N 50.0W
ABOUT 685 MI…1100 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 285 MI…460 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 40 MPH…65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.80 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gert was located
near latitude 43.2 North, longitude 50.0 West. Gert is moving toward
the east-northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours. Gert is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later
today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Gert will continue to affect the coast
of the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada through
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 

=============================================================================

CANADA

Tropical Cyclone Information Statements

8:55 AM ADT Thursday 17 August 2017
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Newfoundland and Labrador:

  • Newfoundland

For Hurricane Gert.

The next information statement will be issued by 3:30 p.m. NDT.

Hurricane Gert will race across the Southern Grand Banks today with no direct impacts to Canadian land areas. Hurricane force winds are not expected over the Grand Banks.

1. Summary of basic information at 09:30 a.m. NDT.

Location: Near 42.3 North 51.7 West.

About 497 kilometres south-southeast of Cape Race.

Maximum sustained winds: 148 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: East-northeast at 76 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 972 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

A special weather statement highlights the possibility of abnormal variations in the tides.

a. Wind.

Any significant winds from Gert are expected to remain well offshore.

b. Rainfall.

Some moisture from Gert will feed into an approaching non-tropical weather system near eastern Newfoundland. This system will reach Newfoundland on Thursday and amounts of 25 to 50 mm are forecast over portions of eastern and northern Newfoundland.

c. Surge/Waves.

Long period swells from Gert will reach 2 to 4 metres along south-facing coastlines of Newfoundland later today, with the highest waves likely along the southern Avalon peninsula. These swells could also lead to dangerous rip currents. Significant wave heights of 3 to 5 metres are expected over the Grand Banks on this afternoon. The highest waves from Gert will remain south of Canadian waters.

In addition, Hurricane Gert may cause a series of rapid changes in water levels in harbours and inlets from the Avalon Peninsula north to Trinity Bay for a couple of hours. The most likely time ranges from late this afternoon into this evening. High tide will be occurring late this afternoon for most areas, so there is a risk for minor flooding near and after high tide.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

The latest track for Gert has it passing over the extreme southern Grand Banks today and transitioning to a very intense mid-latitude storm as it passes east of our forecast waters. Gale to storm force winds are expected over southernmost portions of the Grand Banks, with hurricane force winds remaining just south of the Grand Banks. Gale and Storm warnings are in effect for the southern Grand Banks.

Forecaster(s): Mercer/Murtha/Couturier

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

Weather Warnings(link)

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

Gert Canada

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

201708N TSR!

(Image: TSR)

201708N_0 TSR2 17

(Image: TSR)

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 nhc

(Image: NHC FL)

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 150831

WTNT23 KNHC 171433
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082017
1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 50.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT……. 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 0NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT……. 90NE 150SE 120SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 300SE 420SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 50.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.2N 52.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 46.0N 43.6W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 150SE 120SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 49.3N 37.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 150SE 120SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 51.3N 35.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 52.4N 34.3W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 60SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.2N 50.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

 

 

000
AXNT20 KNHC 150926
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
526 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

Hurricane Gert is centered near 31.8N 72.5W at 15/0900 UTC or
about 375 nm W of Bermuda moving N at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt
with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
from 30N-32N between 70W-73W. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere from 28N-33N between 70W-74W. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
for more details.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

A tropical wave is W of the Cape Verde islands associated with a
1012 mb low pressure located near 14N28W. The wave axis extends
from 18N27W to the low to 09N28W and has been moving W at 10 kt.
The wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear, however
intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave environment
limit deep convection. Shallow moisture confined to the vicinity
of the monsoon trough and upper level diffluent wind support
scattered moderate convection SW of the low center from 10N-14N
between 28W-33W. Slow development of this system is anticipated
during the next day or two, but conditions are forecast to become
a little more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by later in
the week while the system moves westward over the tropical
Atlantic.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
20N51W to 09N53W, moving W at 25 kt. The wave is entering a
region of moderate to strong vertical wind shear and is being
severely affected by extensive Saharan dry air and dust, which is
hindering convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
20N64W to 10N66W, moving W at 25 kt. The wave is in a region of
strong vertical wind shear and dry air subsidence, which is
hindering deep convection at the time. Shallow moisture observed
in CIRA LPW imagery and upper level diffluent flow ahead of the
wave axis in the N-central Caribbean support isolated showers over
northern Puerto Rico and adjacent waters as well as the Mona
Passage and E Dominican Republic.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 12N16W
to 14N28W to 11N42W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
extends from 11N43W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N60W.
Numerous heavy showers and scattered tstms are coming off the W
African coast associated with the next tropical wave. The
convection extends from 05N to 11N E of 18W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 15N between 34W and 46W associated with
a 1012 mb low located near 11N39W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, which along with
dry air subsidence support mainly fair weather conditions.
A broad upper level low is centered just N of the Yucatan
Peninsula, which supports isolated showers there and in the
Yucatan Channel. Diffluent flow in the NW periphery of the low
support similar shower activity off the SE coast of Louisiana and
Mississippi. Winds are gentle to moderate and from the S-SE in the
western half of the basin and light variable elsewhere. The ridge
will remain in place across the Gulf waters the next couple of
days. A surface trough will develop each evening across the
Yucatan Peninsula shifting W to the Bay of Campeche during the
overnight hours. Locally higher winds can be expected west of the
trough axis.

CARIBBEAN SEA…

A tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean. Please
see section above. The tropical wave will continue to propagate
westward over Puerto Rico this morning, then will move over
central Caribbean waters tonight. Isolated showers are occurring
ahead of the wave axis over northern Puerto Rico and adjacent
waters, the Mona Passage and E Dominican Republic. This convection
is mainly due to shallow moisture and a diffluent wind environment
aloft associated with an upper level low over central Atlc waters.
A broad upper level low centered just N of the Yucatan Peninsula
support isolated showers in the Yucatan Channel extending to NW
Caribbean waters N of 17N W of 80W. Scattered heavy showers and
tstms are over Belize and northern Guatemala associated with the
passage of a tropical wave with axis currently moving across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, Mexico. Otherwise, fresh to near gale force
winds are in the south-central basin forecast to continue through
Thursday.

…HISPANIOLA…

An upper level low over the central Atlc will drift WSW to the north
and across the Island over the next couple of days. This low aloft
along with the passage of a tropical wave will support scattered
to isolated showers over the Island and adjacent waters through
Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…

Scattered showers and tstms are N of 28N between 70W and 74W associated
with the rainbands of Hurricane Gert centered north of the area.
See Special features for further details. Otherwise, the
remainder basin generally N of 20N is under the influence of the
Azores high, which supports fair weather. For information about
tropical waves, see section above.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/ Taiwan: Tropical Storm Haitang 302100Z position nr 24.8N 119.7E, moving NNW 13kt (JTWC) – Updated 30 Jul 2017 2120z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Haitang 12W

(Huaning in Philippines – Use hashtag )

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET – JTWC

wp201712_5day Tropical Storm Haitang WUND 30

(Image: @wunderground)

wp201712_sat_anim Tropical Storm Haitang WUND 30

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 12W (Haitang) Warning #11
Issued at 30/2100Z

 

wp1217 Haitang JTWC 30

 

 

 

WTPN32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301800Z — NEAR 24.2N 120.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 345 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 120.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 26.5N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z — 28.5N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 119.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 94 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z,
310900Z AND 311500Z. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 07W (NORU)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1710-00 JMA 00 Haitang

Himawari 8 near real time (link)

TS 1710 (Haitang)
Issued at 19:10 UTC, 30 July 2017

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 30 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N24°40′ (24.7°)
E120°20′ (120.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 440 km (240 NM)
N 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N28°10′ (28.2°)
E117°55′ (117.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N29°05′ (29.1°)
E116°10′ (116.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Jul, 2017 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HAITANG is currently located near 24.2 N 120.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). HAITANG is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    China
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201712W Haitang TSR1 30

(Image: TSR)

201712W_0 Haitang TSR2 30

(Image: TSR)

Other

MARITIME/SHIPPING

seawarn 30

JMA map 30

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 301800

WTJP22 RJTD 301800
WARNING 301800.
WARNING VALID 311800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1710 HAITANG (1710) 990 HPA
AT 24.7N 120.3E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTH 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 28.2N 117.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 29.1N 116.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific/ Mexico: Tropical Storm Dora (04E) 25/1500Z nr 15.0N 101.8W, moving WNW 10 kt (NHC FL) – Published 25 Jun 2017 1608z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Dora 04E

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 12 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center FL

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 251432
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dora Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

…DORA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN…
…HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.0N 101.8W
ABOUT 180 MI…295 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI…520 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dora was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 101.8 West. Dora is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of Dora is expected to move parallel
to but remain offshore of the coast of Mexico.

Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Dora could become a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Dora is expected to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 3
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches along coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan
through Monday.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 04E (Dora) Warning #02
Issued at 25/1000Z

WTPN31 PHNC 251000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
250600Z — NEAR 14.5N 100.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 100.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z — 15.5N 102.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 16.4N 104.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 17.5N 106.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 18.4N 107.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 19.5N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 20.3N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 20.0N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

REMARKS:
251000Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 101.1W.
TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1422 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND
261000Z.//
NNNN

Other

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
FZPN03 KNHC 251554
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN JUN 25 2017

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUN 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON JUN 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUN 27.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 15.0N 101.8W 1001 MB AT 1500 UTC JUN
25 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM N
SEMICIRCLE…30 NM SE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO
14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE AND 60 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DORA NEAR 16.8N 105.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT…40 NM SE QUADRANT…30 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
60 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DORA NEAR 18.6N 108.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER…WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 19.6N 111.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 20.3N 115.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DORA NEAR 20.0N
118.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.N OF 24N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN N
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N W OF 139W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 8 FT IN N SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02S E OF 106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SUN JUN 25…

.TROPICAL STORM DORA…NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF DORA. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 99W
AND 105W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N TO 07N E OF 81W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N84W TO 12N94W, IT THEN RESUMES AT 10N107W
TO 07N131W. ITCZ FROM 07N131W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 126W AND 129W.

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

===========================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.