China: Tropical Storm Ampil 12W 23/1300Z 36.6°N 117.6°E, moving N at speed of 20km/h 990hPa Inland (CMA) – Updated 23 Jul 2018 1410Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm AMPIL 12W

China beware!

CHINA

eng_nmc_tcbu_sfer_eme_acwp_l89_pf_20180723200000024

Typhoon Message
20180723 21:10

National Meteorological Center No.2175
Analysis Time: Jul. 23th 13 UTC
Name of TC: AMPIL
Num. of TC: 1810
Current Location: 36.6°N 117.6°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 18m/s(64.8km/h)
Central Pressure: 990hPa
Forecast movement: next 24hrs AMPIL will moving N at speed of 20km/h
Currently on land

 

1810-00

 

TS 1810 (Ampil)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 23 July 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 23 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N36°30′ (36.5°)
E117°55′ (117.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 220 km (120 NM)
W 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 24 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N38°40′ (38.7°)
E117°30′ (117.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 24 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N41°30′ (41.5°)
E119°50′ (119.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FL, US)

Tropical Depression 12W (Ampil) Warning #23
Issued at 23/0900Z

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 024
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 36.5N 118.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 350 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 36.5N 118.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 38.8N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 41.4N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 37.1N 118.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (AMPIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
407 NM WEST OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W
(SON-TINH) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 14W (WUKONG) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W
(FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 23 Jul, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression AMPIL is currently located near 35.0 N 118.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). AMPIL is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Linyi (35.2 N, 118.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Xinpu (34.8 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP22 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1810 AMPIL (1810) 994 HPA
AT 36.5N 117.9E NORTH CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 38.7N 117.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 41.5N 119.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWCI50 BABJ 230600
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1015UTC JUL.23 2018=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC JUL.23=
FCST VALID 0600UTC JUL.24=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
TS AMPIL 1810(1810) 990HPA AT 35.2N 118.6E
MVG NNW 20KMH AND MAX WINDS 20M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 5.0M)
AND FCST FOR 240600UTC AT 40.2N 118.4E 990HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
TD(09) 990HPA AT 20.8N 110.1E MVG NNW 8KMH
AND MAX WINDS 15M/S NEAR CENTER(SEAS UP TO 4.0M)
AND FCST FOR 240600UTC AT 22.6N 109.1E 998HPA
AND MAX WINDS 12M/S NEAR CENTER=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUSTS 23 TO 28M/S SEAS
UP TO
4.5M OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF YELLOW SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
3.5M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA=
E WINDS FROM 8 TO 12M/S GUSTS 16M/S SEAS UP TO
1.5M OVERBOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 10 TO 12M/S GUSTS 16M/S SEAS
UP TO 2.5M OVER EAST CHINA SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18 TO 23M/S
SEAS
UP TO 3.0M OVER BEIBU GULF AND QIONGZHOU STRAIT
AND
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
3.0M OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH
CHINA
SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER BOHAI
SEA AND AND BEIBU GULF AND QIONGZHOU STRAIT AND
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA
STRAIT AND MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT SULAWESI AND
LAUT MALUKU=
FCST=
BOHAI SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S INCR 14 TO
18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA STATE SMOOTH TO SLT
OVERCAST BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
BOHAI STRAIT
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=
CENTRAL PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT OVERCAST
BECMG CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD TO SLT
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE WINDS VEER S 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE MOD TO SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SE
WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
BASHI CHANNEL
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
BEIBU GULF
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
QIONGZHOU STRAIT
W WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S BACK SW
WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT
HVY RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT TO SMOOTH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD TO SLT CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S VEER SW
WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD
OVERCAST BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SEA SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD HVY RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAWA
SE WINDS BACK E 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY
VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD TO ROUGH
CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT CLOUDY VIS GOOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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China/ East China Sea: Tropical Depression Thirteen 13W 230900Z position nr 29.0N 123.4E, moving N 22 kt (JTWC) – Published 23 Jul 2018 1255Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen 13W

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FL, US)

Tropical Depression 13W (Thirteen) Warning #11
Issued at 23/0900Z

wp1318

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 011
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
230600Z — NEAR 28.2N 123.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2N 123.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z — 31.4N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 34.5N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 18 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z — 38.1N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 29.0N 123.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
220 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 11W (SON-TINH) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (AMPIL) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
14W (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

CHINA typhoon_logo_v2.0

eng_nmc_tcbu_sfer_eme_acwp_l89_pf_20180723080000023

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP22 RJTD 230600
WARNING 230600.
WARNING VALID 240600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1810 AMPIL (1810) 992 HPA
AT 35.3N 118.7E NORTH CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 37.4N 117.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 39.7N 118.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWCI50 BABJ 230600
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1015UTC JUL.23 2018=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC JUL.23=
FCST VALID 0600UTC JUL.24=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
TS AMPIL 1810(1810) 990HPA AT 35.2N 118.6E
MVG NNW 20KMH AND MAX WINDS 20M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 5.0M)
AND FCST FOR 240600UTC AT 40.2N 118.4E 990HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
TD(09) 990HPA AT 20.8N 110.1E MVG NNW 8KMH
AND MAX WINDS 15M/S NEAR CENTER(SEAS UP TO 4.0M)
AND FCST FOR 240600UTC AT 22.6N 109.1E 998HPA
AND MAX WINDS 12M/S NEAR CENTER=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUSTS 23 TO 28M/S SEAS
UP TO
4.5M OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF YELLOW SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
3.5M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA=
E WINDS FROM 8 TO 12M/S GUSTS 16M/S SEAS UP TO
1.5M OVERBOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 10 TO 12M/S GUSTS 16M/S SEAS
UP TO 2.5M OVER EAST CHINA SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18 TO 23M/S
SEAS
UP TO 3.0M OVER BEIBU GULF AND QIONGZHOU STRAIT
AND
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
3.0M OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH
CHINA
SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER BOHAI
SEA AND AND BEIBU GULF AND QIONGZHOU STRAIT AND
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA
STRAIT AND MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT SULAWESI AND
LAUT MALUKU=
FCST=
BOHAI SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S INCR 14 TO
18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA STATE SMOOTH TO SLT
OVERCAST BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
BOHAI STRAIT
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=
CENTRAL PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT OVERCAST
BECMG CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD TO SLT
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE WINDS VEER S 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE MOD TO SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SE
WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
BASHI CHANNEL
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
BEIBU GULF
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
QIONGZHOU STRAIT
W WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S BACK SW
WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT
HVY RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT TO SMOOTH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD TO SLT CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S VEER SW
WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD
OVERCAST BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SEA SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD HVY RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAWA
SE WINDS BACK E 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY
VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD TO ROUGH
CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT CLOUDY VIS GOOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China: Tropical Storm SONTINH 11W 230900Z position nr 20.7N 110.1E, moving NNE 09kt (JTWC) – Updated 23 Jul 2018 1125Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm SONTINH 11W

CHINA BEWARE!

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 11W (Son-tinh) Warning #22
Issued at 23/0900Z

wp11183

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN33 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 022
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
230600Z — NEAR 20.5N 110.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 110.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z — 21.4N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 22.4N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z — 23.0N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 110.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM EAST
OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z
AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (AMPIL) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

(JMA is the lead agency in this area)

NO DATA AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME

 

CHINA

CHINA typhoon_logo_v2.0

eng_nmc_tcbu_sfer_eme_acwp_l89_pf_20180723170000024

HONG KONG (HKO)

Tropical Depression
at 19:00 HKT 23 July 2018

Position: 21.1 N, 110.1 E (about 440 km west-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 55 km/h
The tropical cyclone near Leizhou Peninsula will move in the general direction of Guangxi today and tomorrow.

Tropical Cyclone Track at 19:00 HKT 23 July 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 19:00 HKT 23 July 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 19:00 HKT 23 July 2018

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
17:00 HKT 24 July 2018 22.7 N 109.1 E Tropical Depression 45 km/h
05:00 HKT 25 July 2018 23.3 N 107.2 E Low Pressure Area 40 km/h

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The tropical cyclone symbol in different colours are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure).
  • While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm. The yellow shaded area on the map indicates the probable area within which the tropical cyclone will fall with a probability of 70% (‘Potential Track Area’). Literally, it means that in 10 times of track forecast for similar situations, the tropical cyclone will be centred within the indicated area in about 7 times. The area grows as the forecast hour increases. It will be particularly larger beyond 72 hours and is indicated with lighter shadings on the map. The size in terms of radius of the ‘Potential Track Area’ corresponding to different forecast hours are determined from the error statistics of the forecasts issued in past years and are as shown in the following table:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 125 km
    48-hour forecast position 225 km
    72-hour forecast position 325 km
    96-hour forecast position 400 km
    120-hour forecast position 500 km
  • The analysed tropical cyclone position (the symbol tropical cyclone symbol ) is based on Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly bulletin for public derived from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions.
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are updated every hour. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 23 Jul, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm SON-TINH is currently located near 20.5 N 110.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). SON-TINH is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP22 RJTD 230600
WARNING 230600.
WARNING VALID 240600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1810 AMPIL (1810) 992 HPA
AT 35.3N 118.7E NORTH CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 37.4N 117.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 39.7N 118.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

 

Bulletin issued at 18:31 HKT 23/Jul/2018

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 230900 UTC, the tropical depression near Leizhou Peninsula with central pressure 992 hectopascals was centred within 60 nautical miles of two one point zero degrees north (21.0 N) one one zero point one degrees east (110.1 E) and is forecast to move north slowly for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 30 knots.

Radius of over 2 metre waves 150 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 240900 UTC
Two two point seven degrees north (22.7 N)
One zero nine point one degrees east (109.1 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 242100 UTC
Dissipated over land.


Bulletin issued at 12:30 HKT 23/Jul/2018

Tropical Cyclone Warning

The tropical depression near Taiwan has weakened into an area of low pressure with central pressure 1002 hectopascals. At 230300 UTC, it was centred within 90 nautical miles of two six point six degrees north (26.6 N) one two three point three degrees east (123.3 E).

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 20 knots.

No further warnings on this area of low pressure will be issued by the Hong Kong Observatory unless regeneration takes place.


The Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warnings for shipping are issued about one and a half hours after the time of observation. They incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions given in the hourly bulletins for public.

While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm.

Tropical Cyclone Track

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Ryukyu Islands (esp Miyako and Yaeyama Islands)/ Okinawa/ Amami Islands/ Taiwan/ China: Typhoon MARIA 10W 10/1500Z position nr 25.5N 123.2E, moving WNW 15kt (JTWC) – Updated 10 Jul 2018 1440Z (GMT/UTC)


Typhoon MARIA 10W

MARIA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Ryukyu Islands (esp Miyako and Yaeyama Islands)/ Okinawa/ Amami Islands/ Taiwan/ China BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 28 FEET- JTWC

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 10W (Maria) Warning #32
Issued at 10/1500Z

wp1018310w_101200sair

Google Earth Overlay
WTPN32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (MARIA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 25.2N 124.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 124.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 26.3N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 27.5N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 29.0N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 30.4N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 25.5N 123.2E.
TYPHOON 10W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 141 NM EAST OF TAIPEI,
TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

 

 

(JMA is the lead agency in this area)

1808-003

 

>>>> http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

TY 1808 (Maria)
Issued at 13:45 UTC, 10 July 2018

<Analysis at 13 UTC, 10 July>
Scale
Intensity Very strong
Center position N25°25′ (25.4°)
E123°50′ (123.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 240 km (130 NM)
W 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 500 km (270 NM)
W 280 km (150 NM)
<Estimate for 14 UTC, 10 July>
Scale
Intensity Very strong
Center position N25°30′ (25.5°)
E123°30′ (123.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 240 km (130 NM)
W 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 500 km (270 NM)
W 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 11 July>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N26°20′ (26.3°)
E120°30′ (120.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area E 300 km (160 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 11 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27°10′ (27.2°)
E116°55′ (116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 12 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N30°50′ (30.8°)
E113°00′ (113.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

CHINA

eng_nmc_tcbu_sfer_eme_acwp_l89_pf_20180710200000017

Typhoon Message
20180710 22:03

National Meteorological Center No.1975
Analysis Time: Jul. 10th 14 UTC
Name of TC: MARIA
Num. of TC: 1808
Current Location: 25.5°N 123.6°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 50m/s(180km/h)
Central Pressure: 940hPa
Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 550km SE 450km SW 270km NW 350km
Radius of 50knots Winds: NE 200km SE 150km SW 100km NW 150km
Radius of 64knots Winds: NE 60km SE 60km SW 40km NW 60km
Forecast movement: next 24hrs MARIA will moving WNW at speed of 30km/h

 

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Jul, 2018 6:00 GMT

Typhoon MARIA is currently located near 24.6 N 125.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 110 kts (127 mph). MARIA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. MARIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Nanchang (28.7 N, 115.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Hangzhou (30.3 N, 120.2 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Wuhan (30.6 N, 114.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above wind:

 

Other

DrR m10

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

Location of Ryukyu Islands( 📷 Uchinanchu/wikimedia)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP22 RJTD 101200
WARNING 101200.
WARNING VALID 111200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1808 MARIA (1808) 940 HPA
AT 25.2N 124.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 26.3N 120.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 27.2N 116.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 30.8N 113.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWHK82 VHHH 101200
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
SEVERE TYPHOON (ST) MARIA (1808):
R OF HURRICANES:60NM.
R OF STORMS:120NM.
R OF GALES:210NM.
SYNOPSIS (101200UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
SUPER TYPHOON MARIA (1808) HAS WEAKENED INTO A ST. AT
101200UTC, MARIA WITH CENTRAL P 955HPA AND MAX WINDS 90KT
WAS CENTERED WITHIN 30NM OF 25.2N 124.0E AND IS FC TO MOVE
WNW AT ABOUT 16KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FC POS AT 111200UTC: 27.3N, 116.7E
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6M,10M,14M OVER GALES,STORMS,HURRICANES.
SWELL E TO NE 5-7M OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN AND LUZON STRAIT.
SWELL SE 5-7M OVER EAST CHINA SEA.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FRQ HEAVY SQ SH AND TS WITHIN 240 NM FROM CENTRE OF MARIA
(1808).
SCT SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES, SEAS NEAR
MALAYSIA.
ISOL SQ SH AND TS OVER N PART OF SCS, GULF OF THAILAND AND
GULF OF TONKIN.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VIS 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

 

WWCI50 BABJ 100600
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1015UTC JUL.10 2018=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC JUL.10=
FCST VALID 0600UTC JUL.11=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
SUPERTY MARIA 1808(1808) 935HPA AT 24.7N 125.6E
MVG WNW 30KMH AND MAX WINDS 52M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 12.0M)
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
550KM NE
450KM SE
270KM SW
350KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
200KM NE
150KM SE
100KM SW
150KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 64KTS WINDS
70KM NE
50KM SE
40KM SW
70KM NW
AND FCST FOR 110600UTC AT 26.7N 118.6E 982HPA
AND MAX WINDS 28M/S NEAR CENTER=SUMMARY=
SE WINDS FROM 08 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.0M OVER SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.0M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 22 TO 32M/S SEAS UP TO 6.0M
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
AND SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 33 TO 50M/S SEAS UP TO 10.0M
OVER SEA NEAR CENTRAL OF MARIA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER YELLOW
SEA AND KOREA STRAIT AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF
JAPAN SEA AND SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS AND
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA AND
SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA STRAIT AND
MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT SULAWESI AND LAUT BANDA=
FCST=
NORTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
S WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD TO SLT
RAINSTORM BECMG DOWNPOUR VIS MOD TO POOR=
CENTRAL PART OF YELLOW SEA
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE SLT MOD RAIN
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD TO GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
E WINDS VEER SE 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA
STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
CYCLONIC WINDS 29 TO 36M/S GUSTS 32 TO 41M/S SEA
STATE VERY ROUGH DOWNPOUR VIS POOR=
TAIWAN STRAIT
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SW
WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA STATE MOD
HVY RAIN BECMG DOWNPOUR VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
CYCLONIC WINDS 25 TO 32M/S GUSTS 29 TO 36M/S BECMG
S WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S SEA STATE
VERY ROUGH DOWNPOUR VIS POOR TO MOD=
BASHI CHANNEL
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS GOOD=
QIONGZHOU STRAIT
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE SLT TO SMOOTH
MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
MOD MOD RAIN BECMG HVY RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD HVY RAIN
VIS MOD=
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
CYCLONIC WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S BECMG
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH TO MOD DOWNPOUR BECMG MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SE
WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD
MOD RAIN BECMG HVY RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD DOWNPOUR
BECMG MOD RAIN VIS GOOD=
MALACCA STRAIT
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE SMOOTH MOD RAIN
VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD HVY RAIN VIS MOD=
GULF OF THAILAND
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT HVY RAIN VIS MOD=
ANDAMAN SEA
W WINDS BACK SW 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE MOD HVY RAIN BECMG RAINSTORM VIS MOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China: Tropical Storm Ewiniar (05W) 06/0900Z position nr 21.8N 112.0E, moving NNE 7kt/~8mph (JTWC) – Updated 07 Jun 2018 1542Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Ewiniar (05W)

China beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 10 FEET – JTWC

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 05W (Ewiniar) Warning #22
Issued at 07/1500Z

 

wp05185

WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071200Z — NEAR 21.6N 112.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 030 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 112.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 22.4N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 02 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 22.7N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 23.1N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 112.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 129 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

JMA logo

(JMA is the lead agency for this area)

1804-001

TS 1804 (Ewiniar)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 7 June 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 7 June>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N21°30′ (21.5°)
E112°00′ (112.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slow
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 8 June>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N22°25′ (22.4°)
E112°10′ (112.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 8 June>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N23°10′ (23.2°)
E112°25′ (112.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

CHINA (HKO)

Tropical Storm EWINIAR
at 23:00 HKT 07 June 2018

Position: 21.7 N, 111.9 E (about 240 km west-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 75 km/h
Ewiniar will linger over western Guangdong today and tomorrow.

Tropical Cyclone Track at 23:00 HKT 07 June 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 23:00 HKT 07 June 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 23:00 HKT 07 June 2018

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
20:00 HKT 08 June 2018 23.0 N 111.9 E Tropical Depression 55 km/h
20:00 HKT 09 June 2018 23.0 N 112.6 E Low Pressure Area 40 km/h

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The tropical cyclone symbol in different colours are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure).
  • While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm. The yellow shaded area on the map indicates the probable area within which the tropical cyclone will fall with a probability of 70% (‘Potential Track Area’). Literally, it means that in 10 times of track forecast for similar situations, the tropical cyclone will be centred within the indicated area in about 7 times. The area grows as the forecast hour increases. It will be particularly larger beyond 72 hours and is indicated with lighter shadings on the map. The size in terms of radius of the ‘Potential Track Area’ corresponding to different forecast hours are determined from the error statistics of the forecasts issued in past years and are as shown in the following table:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 125 km
    48-hour forecast position 225 km
    72-hour forecast position 325 km
    96-hour forecast position 400 km
    120-hour forecast position 500 km
  • The analysed tropical cyclone position (the symbol tropical cyclone symbol ) is based on Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly bulletin for public derived from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions.
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are updated every hour. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 Jun, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm EWINIAR is currently located near 21.6 N 112.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). EWINIAR is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

Other

Dr R E 7

 

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

(Image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 071200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 071200.
WARNING VALID 081200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 17.0N 127.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 19.1N 128.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 20.6N 128.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 32N 132E 35N 140E
40N 142E 42N 141E 46N 151E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 30N
150E 28N 130E 32N 132E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 45N 127E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 49N 156E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 37N 159E ENE 15 KT.
LOW 996 HPA AT 44N 169E ENE 15 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 35N 125E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 35N 143E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 58N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 25N 161E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 57N 172E SE 10 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 49N 156E TO 49N 160E 48N 165E.
COLD FRONT FROM 49N 156E TO 46N 150E 42N 143E.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 44N 169E TO 44N 172E 44N 176E.
WARM FRONT FROM 44N 176E TO 43N 180E 40N 174W.
COLD FRONT FROM 44N 176E TO 40N 172E 38N 168E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 38N 168E TO 37N 164E 37N 159E 33N 150E 31N 140E
31N 130E 27N 120E 25N 112E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1804 EWINIAR (1804) 998 HPA AT 21.5N 112.0E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

HKO Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

Tropical Cyclone Warning |  Track and Positions of Tropical Cyclones
Current Weather |  Local Weather Forecast |  9-day Weather Forecast
South China Coastal Waters |  Marine Forecast
Severe Weather Information Centre

Bulletin issued at 22:15 HKT 07/Jun/2018

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 071200 UTC, Tropical Storm Ewiniar (1804) with central pressure 990 hectopascals was centred within 60 nautical miles of two one point six degrees north (21.6 N) one one one point nine degrees east (111.9 E) and is forecast to move north or north-northeast slowly for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 40 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 30 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 150 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 081200 UTC
Two three point zero degrees north (23.0 N)
One one one point nine degrees east (111.9 E)
Maximum winds 30 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 091200 UTC
Dissipated over land.


The Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warnings for shipping are issued about one and a half hours after the time of observation. They incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions given in the hourly bulletins for public.

While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm.

Tropical Cyclone Track

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Hainan/ China/ Macau/ Hong Kong: TYPHOON KHANUN 24W 151500Z nr 20.9N 110.7E, moving W 19kt (JTWC) – Updated 15 Oct 2017 1455z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON KHANUN (24W)

(=CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

⚠️ Hainan, Macau, Hong Kong, China & Vietnam beware!
Taiwan  Laos be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 22 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 24W (Khanun) Warning #14
Issued at 15/1500Z

wp24173

24w_150000sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 21.0N 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 111.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 20.8N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 20.0N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 18.9N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 17.6N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 16.4N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 110.7E.
TYPHOON 24W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

JMA logo

1720-002

TY 1720 (Khanun)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 15 October 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 15 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°40′ (20.7°)
E111°50′ (111.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 560 km (300 NM)
S 440 km (240 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 16 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°20′ (20.3°)
E109°40′ (109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 16 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N19°25′ (19.4°)
E108°20′ (108.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N16°55′ (16.9°)
E107°50′ (107.8°)
Direction and speed of movement S 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 October>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N15°20′ (15.3°)
E107°30′ (107.5°)
Direction and speed of movement S Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)

PAGASA-DOST

@dost_pagasa

Official Twitter Account of Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST)

Tropical Cyclone Advisory No. 1

For: Typhoon “Khanun” (1720) (formerly “Odette”)
Issued at: 11:00 AM, 15 October 2017

At 10:00 AM today

Location of center: 795 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon (20.1ºN, 114.4ºE) [OUTSIDE PAR]

Maximum Sustained Winds: 120 km/h near the center

Gustiness: up to 145 km/h

Forecast movement: West at 20 km/h

This tropical cyclone outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) has no direct effect on any part of the country. Furthermore, this weather system is expected to make landfall over Southern China in the next 24 hours.

The next update on this weather disturbance will be incorporated in the Public Weather Forecast to be issued at 4:00 PM today and at 4:00 AM tomorrow.

NOAA

 rb_lalo-animated16

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Oct, 2017 12:00 GMT

Typhoon KHANUN is currently located near 21.0 N 111.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). KHANUN is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KHANUN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Macau
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours
    Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Laos
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201724w3

201724w_03

MARITIME/SHIPPING

As of today, there is no Tropical Cyclone within Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

 JMA logo

WTJP21 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1720 KHANUN (1720) 950 HPA
AT 20.7N 111.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 20.3N 109.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 19.4N 108.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 16.9N 107.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 15.3N 107.5E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
17101521

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ Russia: Tropical Storm Talim 20W 17/1500Z update from JTWC and others – Updated 17 Sep 2017 1547z (GMT/UTC)

 Tropical Storm Talim 20W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET – JTWC

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 20W (Talim) Warning #36
Issued at 17/1500Z

 

 

wp2017 TALIM JTWC 17

20W_171200sair TALIM 17

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
171200Z — NEAR 34.1N 134.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 050 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 134.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 39.5N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
390 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 29 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 44.8N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 35.5N 135.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

1718-00 TALIM JMA 17

JP WARNING

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

rb_lalo-animated3

STS 1718 (Talim)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 17 September 2017

<Analysis at 14 UTC, 17 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N35°20′ (35.3°)
E135°40′ (135.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 190 km (100 NM)
NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)
<Estimate for 15 UTC, 17 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N35°40′ (35.7°)
E136°05′ (136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 190 km (100 NM)
NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N40°40′ (40.7°)
E139°25′ (139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 60 km/h (33 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area NE 410 km (220 NM)
SW 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N45°50′ (45.8°)
E142°35′ (142.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 50 km/h (28 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area E 600 km (325 NM)
W 370 km (200 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Sep, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm TALIM is currently located near 34.1 N 134.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). TALIM is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk (47.0 N, 142.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201720W TALIM TSR1 17

201720W_0 TALIM TSR2 17

Russia

17.9.2017 16:00 | Day 18 September with saving until the end of the day in the Kaliningrad region, heavy rain is expected to wind up to 25 m/s.

17.9.2017 12:00 | On the night of September 18 in the Orenburg region expected freezing on soil (temperature to -2°).

16.9.2017 22:00 | Day 17 September and the first half of the night 18 September in the Irkutsk region precipitation (rain, wet snow), wind 18-23 m/s, storms, the establishment of a temporary snow cover.

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in the South Kuril and Kuril regions expected strong winds up to 35-40 m/s (hurricane), strong, sometimes very heavy rain (15-49 mm, 50 mm or more for 12:00).

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in southern Sakhalin and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk is expected to be very heavy rain (30 mm for 12:00), wind 25-30 m/s, gusts of 33-38 m/s (hurricane); 19 September in rivers podjomy water levels on the sharp 0.5 m -1.0.

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 and 19 September night in the East of Primorsky Krai expected places heavy rain (15-45 mm for 12:00 or less), wind 15-20 m/s, on the coast with gusts up to 28 m/s.

“In Monday, when Typhoon Talim will move along the western coast of Japan on water area of the sea of Japan, it will have an impact on the weather, the eastern half of the Primorski Krai. Rains of varying intensity, on the East coast of possible heavy rains and strong winds to the 20-25 m/s.

Ex-Talim will bring on Sakhalin and southern Kuril Islands rain and wind up to 15-20 m/s In the zone Tuesday spread to Northern Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. In Thursday afternoon in the southern area of the wind will die down, the Northern Islands will still windy.” – Russian National Forecaster (link)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

JP MARITIME 17

JP WX MAP 17

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1718 TALIM (1718) 975 HPA
AT 34.4N 134.6E SHIKOKU MOVING NORTHEAST 26 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 40.7N 139.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 45.8N 142.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/ Taiwan/ South China Sea: Tropical Cyclone MAWAR 010900Z position near 20.7N 118.2E, moving NNW 07 knots (JTWC) – Published 01 Sep 2017 1000z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Mawar

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 12 FEET – JTWC

wp201718_5day MAWAR WUND

(Image: @wunderground)

wp201718_sat MAWAR WUND

(Image: @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 18W (Mawar) Warning #03
Issued at 01/0900Z

wp1817 MAWAR JTWC

18W_010600sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
010600Z — NEAR 20.5N 118.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 118.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z — 21.1N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z — 21.8N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z — 22.4N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 23.2N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 25.4N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 28.2N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 118.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 010600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z
AND 020900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (SANVU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

jma-logo3

1716-00 JMA

TS 1716 (Mawar)
Issued at 07:00 UTC, 1 September 2017

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 1 September>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N20°10′ (20.2°)
E118°10′ (118.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 2 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N21°00′ (21.0°)
E117°30′ (117.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 3 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N22°05′ (22.1°)
E116°25′ (116.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 4 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N24°20′ (24.3°)
E114°00′ (114.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 1 Sep, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression MAWAR is currently located near 20.5 N 118.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). MAWAR is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201718W tsr1

(Image: TSR)

201718W_0 tsr2

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

seawarn mawar

17090115 mawar jma map

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600
WTJP22 RJTD 010600
WARNING 010600.
WARNING VALID 020600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1716 MAWAR (1716) 998 HPA
AT 20.2N 118.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 21.0N 117.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 22.1N 116.4E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 24.3N 114.0E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 0600

WWHK82 VHHH 010600
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) MAWAR (1716): NIL.
GALES OVER NE PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS).
SYNOPSIS (010600UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
AT 010600UTC, TD MAWAR (1716) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HPA
AND MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KT WAS CENTERED WITHIN 90 NM OF 20.3N
118.5E AND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 020600UTC: 21.3N, 117.7E
GALES OVER NE PART OF SCS LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER GALES LATER.
SWELL E TO NE 3 M OVER N AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE SCS.
SWELL SE 3 M OVER LUZON STRAIT.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) WITHIN 180 NM FROM CENTRE OF MAWAR.
SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN, CENTRAL PART
OF SCS.
ISOLATED SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS NEAR MALAYSIA, SEAS NEAR
SOUTHERN PART OF VIETNAM.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

=======================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines/ China/ Vietnam: Tropical Storm Pakhar 16W 260900Z position nr 18.7N 117.5E, moving WNW 16kt (JTWC) – Updated 26 Aug 2017 0930z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Pakhar 16W

#JolinaPh in Philippines

⚠️  Philippines and China beware! Vietnam be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 15 FEET – JTWC

wp201716_5day Pakhar wund

(Image: @wunderground)

wp201716_sat Pakhar wund

(Image: @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 16W (Pakhar) Warning #08
Issued at 26/0900Z

wp1617 Pakhar jtwc 26

16W_260600sams 26

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
260600Z — NEAR 18.3N 118.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 118.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 19.8N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 21.2N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 21.9N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 22.3N 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 22.7N 101.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 117.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 16W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z,
270300Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

=============================================================================

=============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 26 Aug, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PAKHAR is currently located near 18.3 N 118.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). PAKHAR is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201716W tsr1 26 p

(Image: TSR)

201716W_0 tsr2 26

(Image: TSR)

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

17082615 jma map26

(Image: JMA)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 260600

WTJP22 RJTD 260600
WARNING 260600.
WARNING VALID 270600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1714 PAKHAR (1714) 994 HPA
AT 18.0N 118.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 20.0N 114.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 21.4N 112.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 23.0N 106.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 22.8N 102.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China: Severe Tropical Storm Hato 15W 23/1200Z nr 22.7N 115.3E, moving WNW 30 km/h (16 kt) (JMA) – Updated 23 Aug 2017 1332z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Hato 15W downgraded to Severe Tropical Storm by JMA

 

JAPAN MET

1713-00 jma 23

STS 1713 (Hato)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 23 August 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 23 August>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N22°40′ (22.7°)
E111°00′ (111.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 330 km (180 NM)
N 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 24 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23°20′ (23.3°)
E107°55′ (107.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 24 August>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N23°40′ (23.7°)
E104°30′ (104.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

CMA CHINA typhoon_logo_v2.0
Typhoon Message
20170823 20:26

National Meteorological Center No.680
Analysis Time: Aug. 23th 12 UTC
Name of TC: HATO
Num. of TC: 1713
Current Location: 22.7°N 110.9°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 25m/s(90km/h)
Central Pressure: 985hPa
Forecast movement: next 24hrs HATO will moving WNW at speed of 28km/h
Currently on land
Red Warning of Typhoon

23-08-2017Source:National Meteorological Center

The National Meteorological Center issued red warning of typhoon at 6:00 p.m. on August 23.

At 5:00 p.m. today, Typhoon Hato, this year’s 13th typhoon, centered northern parts of the South China Sea (21.3N, 115.2E), about 200 kilometers away from southeastern Zhuhai city, Guangdong province. The maximum wind near the typhoon center hit scale 13 (40m/s).

It is forecasted to move toward northwest at a speed of 25 kilometers per hour with a strengthening force. At noon today, it is predicted to make landfall in Guangdong coast ranging from Zhuhai City to Yangjiang City (40~48 m/s, scale 13~15, typhoon level or severe typhoon level). After that Hato will continue to march toward west with a shrinking strength and slip into Guangxi on the evening of August 23 (30~33 m/s, scale 11~12, severe tropical storm or typhoon level).

Gale forecast: From August 23 to 24, in portions of Taiwan Strait, northern parts of the South China Sea, Qiongzhou Strait, Beibu Gulf, Guangdong coast, southern Fujian coast, eastern and northern Hainan coast, Guangxi coast, southern Guangdong coast, and eastern Guangxi, scale 7~9 gale is forecasted. Pearl River Estuary will be battered by scale 11~13 gale. Furthermore, the sea or land areas on the way of the typhoon center are expected to be hammered by scale 14~15 gale or scale 16~17 gust.

Precipitation forecast: From August 23 to 24, in some certain locations of most of Guangxi, western and southern Guangdong, northern Hainan Island, southern Fujian coast, and western Taiwan, heavy rain or rainstorm is forecasted. Furthermore, portions of southeastern Guangxi, southwestern Guangdong, and northeastern Hainan Island will be exposed to heavy rainstorm or extraordinary rainstorm (250~350 mm). (August 23)

Editor Wu Peng

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 23 Aug, 2017 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Typhoon HATO is currently located near 22.2 N 112.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). HATO is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. HATO is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Macau
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201715W tsr1 23

(Image: TSR)

201715W_0 tsr2 23

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11/ TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 231200

WTJP21 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1713 HATO (1713) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 985
HPA
AT 22.7N 111.0E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 23.3N 107.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 23.7N 104.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/ Taiwan: Tropical Storm Haitang 302100Z position nr 24.8N 119.7E, moving NNW 13kt (JTWC) – Updated 30 Jul 2017 2120z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Haitang 12W

(Huaning in Philippines – Use hashtag )

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET – JTWC

wp201712_5day Tropical Storm Haitang WUND 30

(Image: @wunderground)

wp201712_sat_anim Tropical Storm Haitang WUND 30

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 12W (Haitang) Warning #11
Issued at 30/2100Z

 

wp1217 Haitang JTWC 30

 

 

 

WTPN32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301800Z — NEAR 24.2N 120.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 345 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 120.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 26.5N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z — 28.5N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 119.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 94 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z,
310900Z AND 311500Z. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 07W (NORU)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1710-00 JMA 00 Haitang

Himawari 8 near real time (link)

TS 1710 (Haitang)
Issued at 19:10 UTC, 30 July 2017

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 30 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N24°40′ (24.7°)
E120°20′ (120.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 440 km (240 NM)
N 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N28°10′ (28.2°)
E117°55′ (117.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N29°05′ (29.1°)
E116°10′ (116.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Jul, 2017 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HAITANG is currently located near 24.2 N 120.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). HAITANG is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    China
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201712W Haitang TSR1 30

(Image: TSR)

201712W_0 Haitang TSR2 30

(Image: TSR)

Other

MARITIME/SHIPPING

seawarn 30

JMA map 30

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 301800

WTJP22 RJTD 301800
WARNING 301800.
WARNING VALID 311800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1710 HAITANG (1710) 990 HPA
AT 24.7N 120.3E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTH 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 28.2N 117.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 29.1N 116.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Taiwan/ Japan/ China: Typhoon Nesat 11W 290900Z 23.9°N 122.4°E, moving NNW 20 km/h (11 kt) (JMA)- Updated 29 Jul 2017 1130z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Nesat 11W

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

⚠️ Taiwan, Ishigaki Island, Ryukyu Islands (Japan) and China BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z  IS 32 FEET- JTWC

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

Himawari 8 near real time (link)

TY 1709 (Nesat)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 29 July 2017

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 29 July>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N23°55′ (23.9°)
E122°25′ (122.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 390 km (210 NM)
N 280 km (150 NM)
<Estimate for 10 UTC, 29 July>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N24°05′ (24.1°)
E122°20′ (122.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 390 km (210 NM)
N 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 29 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N24°50′ (24.8°)
E119°30′ (119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (35 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 140 km (75 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 30 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25°05′ (25.1°)
E118°10′ (118.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 100 km (55 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27°35′ (27.6°)
E118°20′ (118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 1 August>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N29°30′ (29.5°)
E117°35′ (117.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 11W (Nesat) Warning #14
Issued at 29/0900Z

 

 

WTPN34 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (NESAT) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
290600Z — NEAR 23.3N 122.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 122.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 24.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 25.0N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 25.6N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 27.2N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 31.4N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 122.2E.
TYPHOON 11W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (TWELVE)WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Jul, 2017 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NESAT is currently located near 23.3 N 122.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). NESAT is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NESAT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

(Image: JMA)

 

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 290900

WTJP34 RJTD 290900
WARNING 290900.
WARNING VALID 300900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1709 NESAT (1709) 960 HPA
AT 23.9N 122.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 24.8N 119.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 25.1N 118.2E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/ Hong Kong/ Macau: Tropical Depression ROKE 10W 222100Z position nr 22.1N 115.7E, moving WNW 12 knots (JTWC) – Published 22 Jul 2017 1930z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression ROKE 10W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 12 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 10W (Roke) Warning #05
Issued at 22/2100Z

 

 

WTPN34 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (ROKE) WARNING NR 005
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10W
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
221800Z — NEAR 21.9N 116.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 116.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 22.7N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z — 23.5N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 115.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM EAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 Jul, 2017 18:00 GMT

Tropical Depression ROKE is currently located near 21.9 N 116.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). ROKE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800
WARNING 221800.
WARNING VALID 231800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1707 ROKE (1707) 1002 HPA
AT 21.7N 117.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 22.8N 115.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 23.9N 112.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Vietnam/ Laos/ China: Severe Tropical Storm TALAS 06W 161200Z nr 18.5N 107.2E, moving WNW 12kt (JMA) – Published 16 Jul 2017 1410z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm TALAS 06W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 14 FEET (JTWC)

STS 1704 (Talas)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 16 July 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 16 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N18°30′ (18.5°)
E107°10′ (107.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 440 km (240 NM)
NW 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 17 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N18°40′ (18.7°)
E104°20′ (104.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N19°25′ (19.4°)
E100°55′ (100.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

 

hko_logo

Tropical Storm TALAS
at 17:00 HKT 16 July 2017

Position: 18.4 N, 107.8 E (about 790 km west-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 85 km/h
Talas will move across Beibu Wan today, and then move into the inland areas of Indo-China and dissipate gradually.

Tropical Cyclone Track at 17:00 HKT 16 July 2017

Tropical Cyclone Track at 17:00 HKT 16 July 2017

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
17:00 HKT 17 July 2017 19.3 N 101.6 E Tropical Depression 45 km/h
17:00 HKT 18 July 2017 20.5 N 96.7 E Low Pressure Area 25 km/h

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The tropical cyclone symbol in different colours are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure).
  • While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm. The yellow shaded area on the map indicates the probable area within which the tropical cyclone will fall with a probability of 70% (‘Potential Track Area’). Literally, it means that in 10 times of track forecast for similar situations, the tropical cyclone will be centred within the indicated area in about 7 times. The area grows as the forecast hour increases. It will be particularly larger beyond 72 hours and is indicated with lighter shadings on the map. The size in terms of radius of the ‘Potential Track Area’ corresponding to different forecast hours are determined from the error statistics of the forecasts issued in past years and are as shown in the following table:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 125 km
    48-hour forecast position 225 km
    72-hour forecast position 325 km
    96-hour forecast position 400 km
    120-hour forecast position 500 km
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are based on Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warning for shipping issued eight times a day at 0:30, 3:30, 6:30, 9:30, 12:30, 15:30, 18:30 and 21:30 HKT, about one and a half hours after the time of observation. The analysed positions incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based provisional positions given in the hourly bulletins for public. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 06W (Talas) Warning #04
Issued at 16/0900Z

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (TALAS) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 18.1N 108.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 108.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 18.6N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 19.2N 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 20.0N 100.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 107.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM NORTH OF
DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 16 Jul, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm TALAS is currently located near 18.5 N 107.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). TALAS is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Laos
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    China
        probability for TS is 65% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Thailand
        probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 161200
WARNING 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1704 TALAS (1704) 990 HPA
AT 18.5N 107.2E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 18.7N 104.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 19.4N 100.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

hko_logo

Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

Tropical Cyclone Warning |  Track and Positions of Tropical Cyclones
Current Weather |  Local Weather Forecast |  9-day Weather Forecast
South China Coastal Waters |  Marine Forecast
Severe Weather Information Centre

Tropical Cyclone Warning |  Track and Positions of Tropical Cyclones
Current Weather |  Local Weather Forecast |  9-day Weather Forecast
South China Coastal Waters |  Marine Forecast
Severe Weather Information Centre

Bulletin issued at 18:30 HKT 16/Jul/2017

Tropical Cyclone WarningAt 160900 UTC, Tropical Storm Talas (1704) with central pressure 988 hectopascals was centred within 60 nautical miles of one eight point four degrees north (18.4 N) one zero seven point eight degrees east (107.8 E) and is forecast to move west or west-northwest at about 14 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 45 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 45 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 240 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 170900 UTC
One nine point three degrees north (19.3 N)
One zero one point six degrees east (101.6 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 180900 UTC
Dissipated over land.


The Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warnings for shipping are issued about one and a half hours after the time of observation. They incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions given in the hourly bulletins for public.

While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm.
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ West Pacific: Severe Tropical Storm Nanmadol (1703, 05W) 04/1000Z nr 34.1N 137.1E, moving E 65 km/h (36 kt) (JMA) – Updated 04 Jul 2017 1130z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Nanmadol (1703, 05W)

JAPAN beware!

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

 

 

STS 1703 (Nanmadol)
Issued at 10:45 UTC, 4 July 2017

<Analysis at 10 UTC, 4 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N34°05′ (34.1°)
E137°05′ (137.1°)
Direction and speed of movement E 65 km/h (36 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 220 km (120 NM)
N 110 km (60 NM)
<Estimate for 11 UTC, 4 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N34°10′ (34.2°)
E137°50′ (137.8°)
Direction and speed of movement E 65 km/h (36 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 220 km (120 NM)
N 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°40′ (35.7°)
E144°00′ (144.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 5 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N37°20′ (37.3°)
E151°35′ (151.6°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 6 July>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44°30′ (44.5°)
E171°10′ (171.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 85 km/h (45 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)

===============================================================

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 05W (Nanmadol) Warning #10
Issued at 04/0900Z

 

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 04/0900Z

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
040600Z — NEAR 33.6N 134.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 075 DEGREES AT 34 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.6N 134.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 35.3N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 33 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 36.9N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 34.0N 136.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 34
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
NNNN

Tropical Storm Risk

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 4 Jul, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NANMADOL is currently located near 33.6 N 134.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). NANMADOL is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 65% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

News Report

 

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 040600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 41N 142E
46N 150E 53N 160E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 30N 160E 30N 140E 35N
140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 994 HPA AT 57N 154E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 994 HPA AT 51N 164E NORTH 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 17N 133E NW 15 KT.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 43N 148E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 26N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 122E TO 36N 124E 37N 131E 39N 140E 37N 146E
37N 151E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1703 NANMADOL (1703) 992 HPA AT 33.6N 134.2E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 040900

WTJP31 RJTD 040900
WARNING 040900.
WARNING VALID 050900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1703 NANMADOL (1703) 992 HPA
AT 34.1N 136.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 36 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 35.7N 144.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 37.3N 151.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South China Sea: Tropical Storm Merbok (1702, 04W) 11/1500Z nr 18.8N 116.0E, moving NNW 13kt (JMA) – Published 11 Jun 2017 1900z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Merbok (1702, 04W)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

TS 1702 (Merbok)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 11 June 2017
<Analysis at 15 UTC, 11 June>
Scale

Intensity

Center position
N18°50′ (18.8°)

E116°00′ (116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement
NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure
1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area
ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 12 June>
Intensity

Center position of probability circle
N20°40′ (20.7°)

E115°10′ (115.2°)
Direction and speed of movement
NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure
1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle
70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 15 UTC, 12 June>
Intensity

Center position of probability circle
N22°25′ (22.4°)

E114°50′ (114.8°)
Direction and speed of movement
N 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure
998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle
90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 13 June>
Intensity

TD
Center position of probability circle
N25°10′ (25.2°)

E118°20′ (118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement
NE 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure
1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle
280 km (150 NM)

=================================================================================

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 04W (Merbok) Warning #03
Issued at 11/1500Z

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
111200Z — NEAR 18.2N 116.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 345 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 116.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 20.2N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 22.0N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 23.6N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 25.1N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 17 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z — 26.9N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 27.9N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 16 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 29.7N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 116.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 04W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN

================================================================================

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 11 Jun, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MERBOK is currently located near 18.2 N 116.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). MERBOK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

(Image: DoctorAdvice4u.com )

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 


METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 111200
WARNING 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1702 MERBOK (1702) 1002 HPA
AT 18.1N 116.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 20.2N 115.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 22.1N 115.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 25.2N 118.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/Taiwan: Severe Tropical Storm Nepartak (1601, 02W) 082100Z POSITION near 23.7N 119.5E, moving N 01 Knot (JTWC) – Updated 08 Jul 2016 2040Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm  Nepartak/ Butchoy in PH (1601, 02W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 18 FEET

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground Satellite

Image: @wunderground Satellite

 Japan Meteorological agency

1601-00 8

 

1601-00 enlarged.png 8

STS 1601 (Nepartak)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 8 July 2016

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 8 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N23°40′ (23.7°)
E119°25′ (119.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 330 km (180 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 9 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25°30′ (25.5°)
E117°20′ (117.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 10 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N28°10′ (28.2°)
E117°30′ (117.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 02W (Nepartak) Warning #24
Issued at 08/2100Z

wp0216 8a

WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 024
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 23.4N 119.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 119.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 24.4N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 25.3N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 26.2N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 27.3N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 119.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at  6 Jul, 2016 6:00 GMT

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jul, 2016 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NEPARTAK is currently located near 23.4 N 119.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). NEPARTAK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Image: TSR

Image: TSR

 

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 081800

WTJP21 RJTD 081800
WARNING 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1601 NEPARTAK (1601) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON
980 HPA
AT 23.7N 119.4E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 25.5N 117.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 28.2N 117.5E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

END

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/ South China Sea: Typhoon Mujigae 22W 03/1200Z 19.5N 113.4E, moving WNW 11 knots (JMA) – Published 03 Oct 2015 1500z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Mujigae 22W

(=CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1522
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TY 1522 (MUJIGAE)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 3 October 2015

<Analyses at 03/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N19°30′(19.5°)
E113°25′(113.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°35′(20.6°)
E111°35′(111.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N21°40′(21.7°)
E109°40′(109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23°30′(23.5°)
E108°20′(108.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 06/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N25°10′(25.2°)
E108°00′(108.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

HKO_banner_eng

tctrack_1519_en

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

(Updated at 20:45 on 3 Oct HKT)

In the past few hours, outer rainbands of Majigae brought heavy squally showers to Hong Kong. Winds occasionally reached gale force in the offshore areas and on high ground. Heavy squally showers are expected to continue to affect Hong Kong in the next few hours.

According to the present forecast track, Mujigae will be closest to Hong Kong from midnight to early tomorrow morning. Mujigae is expected to skirt around 300 kilometres southwest of Hong Kong.

Unless Mujigae adopts a more northerly track or intensifies significantly, the chance of issuing the Gale or Storm Signal No. 8 is not high. However, winds will occasionally reach gale force over the southwestern part of Hong Kong. The Observatory will closely monitor the evolution of Mujigae.

Rainstorm Warning Bulletin

Updated at 21:45

Amber Rainstorm Warning Signal Special Announcement issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 9:45 p.m.

The Rainstorm Warning Signal is now Amber. This means that heavy rain has fallen or is expected to fall generally over Hong Kong, exceeding 30 millimetres in an hour, and is likely to continue.

There will be flooding in some low-lying and poorly drained areas. People who are likely to be affected should take necessary precautions to reduce their exposure to risk posed by the heavy rain and flooding.

Heavy rain may bring about flash floods. People should stay away from watercourses. People who are likely to be affected by flooding should take necessary precautions to avoid losses.

Please listen to radio or watch television for traffic conditions and further announcements on the rainstorm.

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Oct, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon MUJIGAE (22W) currently located near 19.5 N 113.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

HKO – Hong Kong

Bulletin issued at 21:30 HKT 03/Oct/2015

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 031200 UTC, Typhoon Mujigae (1522) with central pressure 965 hectopascals was centred within 30 nautical miles of one nine point five degrees north (19.5 N) one one three point four degrees east (113.4 E) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 10 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 70 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 120 nautical miles.
Radius of over 47 knot winds 60 nautical miles.
Radius of over 63 knot winds 30 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 270 nautical miles over northern semicircle, 240 nautical miles elsewhere.

Forecast position and intensity at 041200 UTC
Two one point five degrees north (21.5 N)
One zero nine point nine degrees east (109.9 E)
Maximum winds 65 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 051200 UTC
Two three point eight degrees north (23.8 N)
One zero eight point four degrees east (108.4 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 061200 UTC
Dissipated over land.

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200
WTJP21 RJTD 031200
WARNING 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1522 MUJIGAE (1522) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970
HPA
AT 19.5N 113.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 20.6N 111.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 21.7N 109.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 23.5N 108.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 25.2N 108.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/ Japan/ Taiwan/ China: Typhoon Dujuan (21W) 25/2100Z near 20.5N 130.7E, moving NNW 7 knots (JTWC) – Updated 25 Sept 2015 2053z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Dujuan (21W)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Ishigakijima, Okinawa, Japan, Taiwan and China beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 25 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1521-00 25

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

TY 1521 (DUJUAN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 25 September 2015

<Analyses at 25/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N19°55′(19.9°)
E131°20′(131.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°05′(22.1°)
E129°05′(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°20′(23.3°)
E126°35′(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°00′(25.0°)
E122°50′(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 21W (Dujuan) Warning #17
Issued at 25/2100Z

wp2115 25

21W_250532sams

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251800Z — NEAR 20.2N 131.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 131.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 21.3N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 22.0N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 22.5N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 23.1N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z — 24.6N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 26.1N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 27.6N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 130.7E.
TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 417 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND
262100Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

Other Reports

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 25 Sep, 2015 18:00 GMT

Typhoon DUJUAN (21W) currently located near 20.2 N 131.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201521W 25A

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

15092603

WWJP25 RJTD 251800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 142E 42N 140E
44N 145E 51N 157E 60N 163E 60N 180E 38N 180E 40N 160E 40N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 39N 137E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 34N 146E EAST 20 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 52N 167E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 994 HPA AT 44N 170E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 14N 147E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 48N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 26N 162E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 132E TO 32N 135E 33N 141E 34N 146E 34N 150E
31N 153E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1521 DUJUAN (1521) 970 HPA AT 20.1N 131.0E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0900

WTJP21 RJTD 251800
WARNING 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1521 DUJUAN (1521) 970 HPA
AT 20.1N 131.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 22.1N 128.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 23.2N 125.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 24.6N 121.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Kyushu/ Japan/ South Korea: Typhoon Goni (16W) 24/1500Z 30.5N 129.5E, moving NNE at 20 knots (JMA) – Updated 24 Aug 2015 1725Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Goni / Ineng 16W

( = CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 40 FEET- JTWC

Okinawa, Kyushu, JAPAN BEWARE!!

 Taiwan, South Korea, North Korea, Russia & China be aware!

Landfall over Kyushu is expected close to midnight tonight UK time (2300 GMT/UTC)

– UK Met Office

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1515-00 24 1600z
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15082421

CLICK IMAGE FOR LATEST WARNINGS

CLICK IMAGE FOR LATEST WARNINGS

TY 1515 (GONI)
Issued at 16:45 UTC, 24 August 2015

<Analyses at 24/16 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N30°50′(30.8°)
E129°35′(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE170km(90NM)
NW90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL460km(250NM)
<Estimate for 24/17 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N31°05′(31.1°)
E129°50′(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE170km(90NM)
NW90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL460km(250NM)
<Forecast for 24/21 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N32°25′(32.4°)
E130°20′(130.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area SE200km(110NM)
NW140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 25/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N34°35′(34.6°)
E131°00′(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area SE220km(120NM)
NW170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 25/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N35°50′(35.8°)
E131°25′(131.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area SE240km(130NM)
NW190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 25/15 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N36°55′(36.9°)
E131°35′(131.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area SE240km(130NM)
NW200km(110NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 16W (Goni) Warning #43
Issued at 24/1500Z

wp1615 24

wp16152409

16W_241132sair

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 043
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
241200Z — NEAR 29.6N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 035 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.6N 128.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 33.1N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 36.2N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 38.9N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 16 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 42.0N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 30.5N 129.2E.
TYPHOON 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 40
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Prognostic Reasoning

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Aug, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon GONI (16W) currently located near 29.6 N 128.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201516W 24

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

Typhoon Goni set for landfall over Japan – UK Met Office

24 August 2015 – The very active typhoon season in the Pacific Ocean has continued with intense typhoons Goni and Atsani tracking across the ocean during the last week

Whilst Atsani has stayed out at sea, Goni moved very close to the northern tip of the Philippines before making a sharp turn northwards. The typhoon then passed close to Taiwan before starting to move across the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. On Sunday the eye of Typhoon Goni passed over the island of Ishigaki with wind gusts of over 150 mph being recorded.

Goni is still a powerful typhoon as it accelerates north-eastwards towards south-western parts of mainland Japan. Landfall over Kyushu is expected close to midnight tonight UK time (2300 GMT/UTC) . Wind speeds in excess of 100 mph and heavy rain is expected bringing the risk of structural damage, damaging waves, flooding and landslides.

Typhoons Goni and Atsani on 20 August 2015. Image courtesy of The National Institute of Informatics

Typhoons Goni and Atsani on 20 August 2015. Image courtesy of The National Institute of Informatics 

The latest typhoons are part of an extremely active season for tropical cyclones across the whole Pacific Ocean brought about by the developing strong El Niño. In total there have been 28 tropical storms across the northern Pacific this year which includes 18 typhoons or hurricanes (different names for the same features in the west and east Pacific). 13 of the typhoons or hurricanes have been strong enough to be classified as ‘major’ on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Meanwhile the Atlantic has been relatively quiet with just four tropical cyclones so far this season. However, in the last few days Danny became the first hurricane of the season and, despite being downgraded to a tropical storm, is bringing windy and wet conditions to the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean.

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific are produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via on Twitter.

Last updated: 24 August 2015

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 241500

WTJP31 RJTD 241500
WARNING 241500.
WARNING VALID 251500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1515 GONI (1515) 940 HPA
AT 30.5N 129.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 34.6N 131.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 36.9N 131.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY..=

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China: 50 Killed, 700+ injured in massive Tianjin explosions. 12 of the dead were firefighters (videos) – Published 13 Aug 2015 1250z (GMT/UTC)

50 people killed and more than 700 were hospitalized, 71 of them for serious injuries. Contact lost with 36 firefighters, 12 of the 44 killed were firefighters – BBC latest.

Update 3:

As Chinese rescue workers and emergency services raced to respond to the deadly explosions that rocked the port city of Tianjin Wednesday, another group of Chinese officials, with a very different purpose also sprang into action: the country’s censors and security officials intent on limiting coverage of the disaster by conventional media outlets and social media. Authorities in Tianjin have been attempting to tightly control information about the disaster. Journalists and nonessential personnel were being kept six miles away from the scene of the blasts, the Los Angeles Times reported. In addition, a CNN correspondent reporting live from outside a hospital was seen being accosted by security officials live on air. In the video below [the confrontation starts around 1:48] reporter Will Ripley is confronted by several men, demanding that he end his broadcast, and shouting “stop recording” in Chinese. His feed is then cut, and the studio anchor comments that such incidents have “happened many times over the years in any number of stories in China.” In addition, local Chinese outlets reportedly had trouble being able to report on the incident. One journalist who took photographs inside a Tianjin hospital was threatened by security guards and told to delete the images, the Hong Kong Free Press reported. Local station Tianjin Television was reportedly airing a Korean soap opera 8 hours after the incident, as reporters waited for permission to start covering the story. Media censorship of this kind is not new in China, particularly when it comes to coverage of national disasters. After a 2011 train crash that left 39 people dead and over 200 injured, propaganda directives issued by Chinese authorities leaked online, which showed that reporters were warned not to run investigative reports or commentary, but rather focus on “stories that are extremely moving, for example people donating blood and taxi drivers not accepting fares,” the BBC reported. “From now on, the Wenzhou train accident should be reported along the theme of ‘major love in the face of major disaster’,” the directives added. The strategy ultimately backfired, prompting online anger from citizens who accused the authorities of “arrogance.” In the world of social media, users of Sina Weibo, China’s hugely popular version of Twitter, were reporting Thursday that some of their posts about the Tianjin disaster were being censored or deleted, according to the Associated Press. In addition, the number of searchable posts on the disaster fluctuated, in a sign that authorities were manipulating or placing limits on the number of posts.

Thursday, 13 August, 2015 at 07:56 UTC RSOE

Update 2:

A series of huge explosions shook the northern Chinese city of Tianjin late Wednesday, killing at least 44 people and injuring hundreds more, according to officials and state media. The cause was not immediately clear. Liu Yue, a 25-year-old Tianjin resident, said she felt the first blast but didn’t think too much of it. “The second explosion was so powerful that I felt the entire 16-floor-building was shaking,” said Liu, who lives about 4 kilometers (21 miles) from the site of the blasts. “I thought it was an earthquake! I was extremely scared. I was afraid my family was in danger.” The initial explosion erupted at a warehouse for a logistics company in an industrial area of the port city, according to Tianjin police. The company was identified as Tianjin Dongjiang Port Rui Hai International Logistics Co. Ltd. The state-run news agency Xinhua reported that an explosion tore through a warehouse storing “dangerous and chemical goods” in Binhai, an area of the city by the water. The firefighting division of the Chinese Public Security Ministry said firefighters were first called to the scene about a fire. An explosion went off after they arrived, it said. As smoke continued to billow into the sky from the site Thursday, local authorities suspended firefighting efforts at the scene because of a lack of information on the “dangerous goods” that were stored at the warehouse, Xinhua reported. Xinhua reported Thursday that 12 firefighters were among the dead and that dozens more remained unaccounted for in the aftermath of the blasts. Video from late Wednesday showed a blinding blast of light and smoke that sent fireballs shooting across the night sky. That was followed by an even bigger explosion, the force of which appeared to knock over the video camera. The shock waves were felt kilometers away, Xinhua reported, and some residents said windows and fish tanks had been shattered. The state-run China Earthquake Networks Center said in an official post on social media that two of the explosions had carried the force of small earthquakes. The first was measured at magnitude of 2.3, the second at 2.9, it said. As day broke Thursday, the extent of the damage was beginning to become clear. State media carried images of damaged buildings and parking lots full of rows of burned-out cars. Xinhua said that 44 people were killed and more than 500 were hospitalized, 66 of them for critical injuries. It had reported earlier that most of the injuries were from stones or broken glass.

Thursday, 13 August, 2015 at 07:07 UTC RSOE

Update 1:

Two massive explosions caused by flammable goods ripped through an industrial area in the northeast Chinese port city of Tianjin late on Wednesday, killing 17 people and injuring as many as 400, official Chinese media reported. Authorities had lost contact with 36 firefighters on the scene, the official Beijing News newspaper reported, citing the Tianjin fire department. The force of the explosions unnerved residents across much of the city of 15 million people, with some posting videos on the Internet that showed giant fireballs shooting into the sky and shock waves buffeting apartment blocks and cars. Fires were still burning after dawn, with photographs on Chinese news websites showing what appeared to be several destroyed buildings as well as torched cars at a multi-storey car park inside a logistics base at Tianjin Port. The port, one of the busiest in China, was operating normally, a port official said. President Xi Jinping demanded that authorities quickly extinguish the fires and “make full effort to rescue and treat the injured and ensure the safety of people and their property”, China Central Television (CCTV) said on its official microblog. CCTV said the blasts erupted in a shipment of explosives at around 11:30 p.m. local time (1530 GMT), triggering a shockwave that was felt kilometres (miles) away. The second blast came roughly 30 seconds after the first, state media said. Video posted on YouTube from what appeared to be an apartment building some distance from the scene showed fire shooting into the night sky from the initial blast when the second, much bigger, explosion rocked the area, sending a huge fireball into the air. Seconds later, shockwaves hit the apartment building. “Our building is shaking. Is this an atomic bomb?” said a frenzied voice inside. In other amateur video which appears to be shot closer to the scene, people scream from inside a car as the shockwave hits from the second blast, rocking their vehicle. The official People’s Daily newspaper said the death toll was 17 while other state media said six firefighters were among the dead. The official Xinhua news agency gave varying estimates of between 300 and 400 injured, with 32 critically hurt. Xinhua said the explosions ripped through a warehouse storing “dangerous goods”. The first explosion was equivalent to 3 tonnes of TNT and the second blast 21 tonnes of TNT, it said. It identified the owner of the warehouse as Tianjin Dongjiang Port Ruihai International Logistics. The company’s website said it was a government-approved firm specialising in handling “dangerous goods”. Company officials could not immediately be reached for comment. anadian teacher Monica Andrews told the BBC that she awoke in panic after what she thought was an earthquake. “I … looked out the window and the sky was red … I just watched a second explosion go off and (it was) just pure chaos, everyone leaving their apartment buildings thinking it’s an earthquake, cars trying to leave the complex and … it was crazy the amount of light that this explosion and fire lit up,” she said. Pictures posted on Chinese media websites also showed residents and workers, some bleeding, fleeing from near the scene. Citing a local hospital, Xinhua said people had been hurt by broken glass and stones. CCTV said on its website about 100 fire trucks had been sent to the scene. Several fire trucks had been destroyed and nearby firefighters wept as they worked to extinguish flames, the Beijing News said. Tianjin is home to around 15 million people, making it one of the biggest cities in China. Industrial accidents are not uncommon in China following three decades of breakneck economic growth. A blast at an auto parts factory in eastern China killed 75 people a year ago when a room filled with metal dust exploded.

Thursday, 13 August, 2015 at 04:27 UTC RSOE

Initial Report:

Massive, deadly explosions have erupted in the major Chinese port city of Tianjin, sending a fireball and mushroom cloud into the night sky and causing at least 17 deaths and hundreds of injuries. The explosions ripped through a warehouse storing hazardous goods near the port’s container terminal at around 11.30pm local time on Wednesday. The two biggest blasts occurred within 30 seconds of each other and caused extensive damage in the surrounding area, blowing out the glass on nearby high-rise buildings. The force of the blasts were felt kilometres away and registered on earthquake scales. Eyewitness videos, apparently taken from nearby apartments overlooking the area, quickly circulated on Chinese social media, some capturing a major blast, which sent a mushroom cloud tens of metres into the sky. Hundreds of injured people crowded into nearby hospitals, many arriving on foot, car and taxi overwhelming emergency services. Of the more than 400 report injured, at least 32 remained in a critical condition on Thursday morning. In one video of the explosion on Weibo, people can be heard reacting with shock and fear in Mandarin. “What about the people in that area?” one person can be heard saying as they watch the fire, before a major explosion occurs. Another voice can be heard saying “I’m scared to death”, before a woman exclaims “I can’t open the door”. Another video being circulated, purporting to be security camera footage from near the blast, shows a man standing inside a building in front of glass doors, before an explosion blows the doors and walls inwards, knocking the man to the ground. The city’s fire department first received reports at 10:50 pm about a fire at the warehouse, used by Ruihai International Logistics, a company that handles hazardous materials. Two firefighters were reported missing after the explosions, while another four were injured, it said. The precise nature of the materials that exploded was not made clear, and there was no indication whether the blast was accidental or intentional. The strength of the explosions also shattered windows of nearby buildings, and eyewitnesses reported feeling the blasts from kilometres away. The blasts were so massive they were reportedly visible from space, captured by the Japanese weather satellite Himawari 8.

Thursday, 13 August, 2015 at 03:04 (03:04 AM) UTC RSOE

Other Reports:

BBC

China explosion: Tianjin death toll rises in port blasts

Media caption Drone footage showed the devastation caused by the explosions

At least 44 people are known to have died, and more than 500 injured, following two major explosions in China’s northern port city of Tianjin.

Twelve firefighters are among those who lost their lives; 36 are still missing.

The blasts happened in a warehouse for hazardous chemicals and caused a huge fireball that could be seen from space.

Hospitals have been overwhelmed with people seeking treatment for injuries caused by flying glass and debris. Some 66 people are in a serious condition.

President Xi Jinping has promised a thorough investigation into what happened and “transparent information disclosure to the public,” Xinhua news agency reports.

The first explosion occurred at about 23:30 local time (15:30 GMT) on Wednesday in the city’s Binhai New Area, a vast industrial zone which houses car factories, aircraft assembly lines and other manufacturing and research firms.

The blast was followed seconds later by another, more powerful blast, and a series of smaller explosions.

Buildings within a 2km radius (1.5 miles) had windows blown out, office blocks were destroyed and hundreds of cars burnt-out.

The impact of the blasts could be felt several kilometres away, and was registered as seismic activity at a US Geological Survey monitoring unit in Beijing 160km (100 miles) away.

The China Earthquake Networks Centre said the magnitude of the first explosion was the equivalent of detonating three tonnes of TNT, while the second was the equivalent of 21 tonnes.

Blast ‘like end of the world’

Pictures reveal devastation

Daylight revealed the extent of the devastation around the warehouse
Buildings and cars within a two kilometre radius of the explosion were destroyed
Hundreds of people were injured by flying glass and debris
Shipping container boxes were crumpled by the heat
Tianjin is a major port and industrial area to the south-east of Beijing

“I saw fire burning and then: Boom! There was an explosion. My first reaction was to run as fast as I could and get down on the ground to save my life,” Wu Dejun, 38, a hairstylist, told Reuters.

“When I escaped, I had blood all over me.”

“It was like what we were told a nuclear bomb would be like,” truck driver Zhao Zhencheng told the AP news agency. “I’ve never even thought I’d see such a thing. It was terrifying, but also beautiful.”

Media caption Pictures and video shared on social media showed the moment of the blast

The blast ripped apart a nearby dormitory for migrant workers, who were forced to flee the collapsing building.

“I rolled off the bed after the first shockwave hit, so I scrambled to run for my life,” said resident Dan Agio.

“When I reach downstairs the second blast happened. It’s as if the sky collapsed. In a blink of an eye, the roof fell.”

Media caption Explosions survivor “The second blast blew me away”

As of 12:00 local time (04:00 GMT), 44 people had died and a total of 520 people were being treated in hospital, Xinhua reported.

Around 1,000 firefighters, along with 140 fire engines, spent the night tackling the flames.

A number were reportedly already on the scene at the time of the explosions, having been called out to earlier reports of a fire in the area.

There was an outpouring of support for them on social media as it became apparent that they were among the dead, injured and missing.

Media caption The BBC’s John Sudworth reports from inside the blast zone

Hospitals struggled to cope as residents rushed there to be treated for injuries or for news of missing loved ones.

Many without injuries responded for calls to donate blood, and long queues formed outside blood donation centres.

Chinese media has reported that the blasts happened after a shipment of explosives detonated in a warehouse owned by Ruihai Logistics, a company that specialises in handling dangerous and toxic chemicals.

State broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV) said at least one person from the “relevant company” had been detained for questioning.

There has been some criticism in Chinese media that a warehouse containing such dangerous chemicals should have been sited near a main road, housing complexes and office blocks.

Tianjin, home to some 15 million people, is a major port and industrial area to the south-east of the Chinese capital, Beijing.

Tests are being undertaken to check pollution levels both in the air and water around Tianjin. Tanker traffic in and out of the port has been disrupted.

The blasts caused a huge fireball that lit up the night sky

People flooded on to nearby streets shortly after the explosions

Other:

(Video credit: benalvino1860)

(Video credit: Daily Leak)

(Video credit: Mohammed Shariff)

(Video credit: Jack Will)

(Video credit: Daily Leak)

TAIWAN/ CHINA: Typhoon Soudelor (13W) 081500Z POSITION near 24.9N 118.9E, moving NW at 08 knots (JTWC) – Updated 080815 1506Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Soudelor (13W)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 26 FEET (JTWC)

TAIWAN AND CHINA BEWARE!

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

Japan Meteorological agency

1513-00 8
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15080821

TY 1513 (SOUDELOR)
Issued at 13:00 UTC, 8 August 2015

<Analyses at 08/12 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N24°55′(24.9°)
E119°30′(119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E650km(350NM)
W500km(270NM)
<Forecast for 09/00 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N26°20′(26.3°)
E117°35′(117.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area NE220km(120NM)
SW190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 09/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27°55′(27.9°)
E116°35′(116.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N30°50′(30.8°)
E116°00′(116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

CWB Taiwan

CWB TAIWAN (Click here)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 13W (Soudelor) Warning #38
Issued at 08/1500Z

wp1315 8

13W_081132sair

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 038
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 24.6N 119.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 119.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 25.9N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 27.6N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 118.9E.
TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Aug, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon SOUDELOR (13W) currently located near 24.6 N 119.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Ganzhou (25.7 N, 115.0 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201513W 8

News Reports

Tropical Storm in Mariana Islands

President Barack Obama has declared the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands a disaster area and is ordering federal aid to help the U.S. territory in the aftermath of a destructive typhoon. The White House on Thursday announced the disaster declaration for Typhoon Soudelor, which destroyed homes, toppled trees and snapped utility poles over the weekend on the 48-square-mile island of Saipan. Damage surveys were ongoing, but the commonwealth remained without electricity and running water, and residents were rationing fuel. Most major roadways have been cleared of uprooted trees and debris, Saipan resident Glen Hunter said. “The morning after the typhoon, you could not get anywhere because of the power poles … and trees that fell on the ground,” lifelong Saipan resident Lucy Selepeo said. “The tin houses, practically everything just flew away. The only thing you can see from the houses are the foundations.” Selepeo said concrete homes that withstood the winds, like hers, are flooded. More than 500 people on Saipan were in shelters, according to the Red Cross. Officials distributed water at various stations across the island. Still, signs of aid remained scarce going into the fifth day after the storm, Selepeo said. “I encountered a family of eight who slept on the beach in their car because their home flew away,” she said. About 50,000 people live on the commonwealth’s four populated islands, with most residing on Saipan, which took the brunt of the storm. Nearby Tinian got some damage, while Rota was spared, said Gregorio Kilili Camcacho Sablan, the commonwealth’s delegate to U.S. Congress. As for Pagan, “No idea,” he said. “I have no way to contact Pagan.” Ten generators were being shipped from Guam to power water pumps in Saipan, but the harbor was closed Thursday because of a listing boat that was half underwater, Sablan said. Restoring power could take a month or two, he said. “I haven’t seen a storm like this in 20 years,” Sablan said. “Unfortunately, the resources we have are hardly enough to get things up.” Wind speeds during the storm were between 100 mph and 120 mph. In an area that’s used to typhoons, Sablan said he and others were expecting it to pass with maybe 80 mph winds. That there were no reports of deaths or serious injury “seems almost impossible,” Hunter said. There initially was a $20-per-vehicle limit on buying gasoline, which meant motorists could get only about four gallons, Hunter said. Some easily burned through that amount while waiting in long lines at the pumps. On Thursday, the limit increased to $50, Sablan said. Gov. Eloy Inos was on vacation visiting his children on the U.S. mainland. “He’s doing everything he can to come back home. … He’s very anxious,” Sablan said. Despite the desperate conditions, residents were hopeful.

“There is nowhere to go but up from here,” Selepeo said. “We’re optimistic. We will recover.”
Saturday, 08 August, 2015 at 04:39 (04:39 AM) UTC RSOE

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

seawarn 8

Marine Warnings: SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA

23:35 JST 08/08/2015

OKINAWA WX
082100JST ISSUED AT 082335JST

STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA SOUTH OF
OKINAWA

TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970HPA AT 24.9N 119.5E MOVING NNW 09KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150NM NE SIDE AND 100NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350NM EAST SIDE AND 270NM ELSEWHERE
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900JST AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 55KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100JST AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 45KT NEAR CENTER

IN SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE-LY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

IN SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100JST AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION

WARNING VALID 092100JST

Marine Warnings: SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA

23:35 JST 08/08/2015

OKINAWA WX
082100JST ISSUED AT 082335JST

STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA SOUTH OF
OKINAWA

TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970HPA AT 24.9N 119.5E MOVING NNW 09KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150NM NE SIDE AND 100NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350NM EAST SIDE AND 270NM ELSEWHERE
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900JST AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 55KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100JST AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 45KT NEAR CENTER

IN SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE-LY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

IN SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100JST AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION

WARNING VALID 092100JST

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN /081200

WTJP21 RJTD 081200
WARNING 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970 HPA
AT 24.9N 119.5E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Korea/ China: Severe Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (09W) 12/1500Z POSITION nr 37.5N 125.1E, moving N/NNE 20 knots (JTWC) – Updated 120715 1500z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (09W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1509-00 c12

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15071215 c12

STS 1509 (CHAN-HOM)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 12 July 2015

<Analyses at 12/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N36°35′(36.6°)
E125°00′(125.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E600km(325NM)
W390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 13/00 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N39°40′(39.7°)
E127°00′(127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 13/12 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N42°10′(42.2°)
E130°30′(130.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 09W (Chan-hom) Warning #49
Issued at 12/1500Z

wp0915 c12

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 11/2100Z

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 11/2100Z

09W_112332sams c12

WTPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 049
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121200Z — NEAR 36.8N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 015 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.8N 124.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 39.6N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 40.9N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 37.5N 125.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Jul, 2015 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM (09W) currently located near 36.8 N 124.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    P’yongyang (39.0 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sariwon (38.5 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kanggye (41.0 N, 126.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Hamhung (39.9 N, 127.6 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Sinuiju (40.1 N, 124.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201509W_0 c12

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

seawarn c12

CLICK IMAGE FOR MORE DETAIL

WTJP21 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509) 980 HPA
AT 36.6N 125.0E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 39.7N 127.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 42.2N 130.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 120600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED EASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED
BY 15N 176E 15N 180E 13N 180E 13N 176E 15N 176E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED WESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED
BY 13N 176E 13N 180E 11N 180E 11N 176E 13N 176E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 32N 136E 33N 136E
35N 137E 36N 143E 43N 146E 56N 163E 60N 164E 60N 180E 40N 180E 36N
160E 32N 142E 32N 136E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 49N 132E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 47N 153E SE 15 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 57N 146E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1511 NANGKA (1511) 950 HPA AT 18.6N 137.6E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509) 975 HPA AT 34.9N 124.2E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South China Sea/ China: Tropical Storm Kujira (08W) 21/1200Z at 16.6N 111.3E almost stationary (JMA) – Updated 210615 1315z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Kujira 08W
(upgraded by JMA from TD at 09:50 UTC 21 June 2015)

Hainan Island and western Guangdong in China beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. – JTWC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Japan Meteorological agency

1508-00

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15062115

TS 1508 (KUJIRA)
Issued at 09:50 UTC, 21 June 2015

<Analyses at 21/09 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N16°25′(16.4°)
E111°20′(111.3°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 22/09 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N18°40′(18.7°)
E111°10′(111.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
<Forecast for 23/06 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N20°35′(20.6°)
E110°10′(110.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 24/06 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N22°55′(22.9°)
E109°20′(109.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

Hong Kong Observatory

Tropical Depression KUJIRA
at 17:00 HKT 21 June 2015

Position: 16.5 N, 111.3 E (about 710 km south-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 55 km/h
Tropical Depression Kujira will intensify slightly, and move north in the general direction of Hainan Island and western Guangdong in the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Track at 17:00 HKT 21 June 2015

Tropical Cyclone Track at 17:00 HKT 21 June 2015

Tropical Cyclone Track at 17:00 HKT 21 June 2015

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
17:00 HKT 22 June 2015 19.0 N 111.1 E Tropical Storm 75 km/h
17:00 HKT 23 June 2015 21.2 N 110.1 E Tropical Storm 65 km/h
17:00 HKT 24 June 2015 23.7 N 108.8 E Tropical Depression 45 km/h
17:00 HKT 25 June 2015 25.9 N 107.4 E Low Pressure Area 40 km/h

Download 256km Radar from HKO

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 08W (Kujira) Warning #04
Issued at 21/0900Z

wp0815

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/08W_210532sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
210600Z — NEAR 16.4N 111.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 111.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 17.4N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 18.8N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z — 20.2N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 21.4N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 23.3N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 111.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 186 NM
EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 210600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 210600.
WARNING VALID 220600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 39N 142E 42N 141E
42N 144E 47N 152E 53N 160E 60N 164E 60N 180E 30N 180E 30N 160E 30N
140E 37N 152E 39N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 32N 140E EAST 20 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 52N 152E NE 15 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 38N 161E ENE 20 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 34N 124E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 40N 134E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 57N 141E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 37N 149E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 48N 168E NE 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 57N 171E ENE 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N 110E TO 28N 116E 26N 126E 28N 135E 32N 140E
31N 147E 30N 156E 33N 163E 38N 167E 38N 171E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1508 KUJIRA (1508) 996 HPA AT 16.4N 111.4E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Hong Kong Observatory

Bulletin issued at 18:30 HKT 21/Jun/2015
Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 210900 UTC, Tropical Depression Kujira (1508) with central pressure 992 hectopascals was centred within 60 nautical miles of one six point five degrees north (16.5 N) one one one point three degrees east (111.3 E) and is forecast to move north at about 6 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 30 knots.

Radius of over 2 metre waves 120 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 220900 UTC
One nine point zero degrees north (19.0 N)
One one one point one degrees east (111.1 E)
Maximum winds 40 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 230900 UTC
Two one point two degrees north (21.2 N)
One one zero point one degrees east (110.1 E)
Maximum winds 35 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 240900 UTC
Two three point seven degrees north (23.7 N)
One zero eight point eight degrees east (108.8 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 250900 UTC
Dissipated over land.

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 211200
WARNING 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1508 KUJIRA (1508) 992 HPA
AT 16.6N 111.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 19.2N 111.2E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 21.5N 110.1E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 23.2N 108.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Other warnings can be found at

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Luzon/ Philippines/ China/ Hong Kong/ Vietnam: Typhoon KALMAEGI (15W)/ LUIS: 141800Z near 18.4N 119.6E, moving WNW at 17 knots (JMA) – Updated 140914 2000z (UTC)

Typhoon KALMAEGI (15W)/Bagyong LUIS in the Philippines

Typhoon “LUIS” has slightly weakened as it continues to cross the Northern Luzon area – PAGASA

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1415

TY 1415 (KALMAEGI)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 14 September 2014

<Analyses at 14/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N18°25′(18.4°)
E119°35′(119.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE390km(210NM)
NW280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 15/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°40′(18.7°)
E116°20′(116.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 15/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°40′(19.7°)
E113°25′(113.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 16/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°20′(21.3°)
E107°10′(107.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 17/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N22°50′(22.8°)
E102°20′(102.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)

 

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

luis 14091412

 

EVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER  TWELVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: TYPHOON “LUIS” (KALMAEGI)
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Sunday, 14 September 2014

 

 

Typhoon “LUIS” has slightly weaken as it continues to cross the Northern Luzon area.

 

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.)
 in the vicinity of Kabugao, Apayao
Coordinates: 18.0°N, 121.1°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 150 kph.
Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 30 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Monday morning:
outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)

Monday evening:
492 km West of Laoag City

 

 Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS Luzon Visayas Mindanao
# 3(Winds of 101-185 kph is expected in at least 18 hrs) Cagayan including Babuyan and Calayan Group of Islands, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Kalinga, Mt. Province and Ilocos Sur   None None
# 2(Winds of 61-100 kph is expected in at least 24 hrs) Batanes Group of Islands, Isabela, Ifugao, La Union, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya and Pangasinan None None
#1
(winds of 30 – 60 kph is expected in atleast
36 hours)
Tarlac, Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan Nueva Ecija, Quirino and Aurora None None

 

Public storm warning signals elsewhere are now lowered.

 

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #3, #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #3 and #2 are alerted against storm surges of up to 2 meters.

 

Estimated rainfall amount is from 8 – 20 mm per hour (heavy – Intense) within the 500 km diameter of the Typhoon.

 

The rest of Luzon and Western Visayas will have monsoon rains with moderate to strong southwesterly surface windflow due to the Southwest Monsoon.

 

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the westerm seaboard of Central Luzon and seaboards of Southern Luzon and Visayas.

 

The public and the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (DRRMC) concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

See more: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/hourly-update

For more information and queries, please call at telephone numbers 927-1335 and 927-2877 or log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1514.gif

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/15W_141132sair.jpg

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
141200Z — NEAR 17.9N 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 121.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z — 18.8N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 19.6N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 20.4N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 21.2N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 22.6N 102.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 24.1N 97.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 121.0E.
TYPHOON 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.
//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Sep, 2014 12:00 GMT

Typhoon KALMAEGI (15W) currently located near 17.9 N 121.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Typhoon Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) Afternoon Video Update | September 14, 2014

Typhoon Kalmaegi / Luis Nearing Landfall Sunday – WestPacWx

Rain

Out of this storm of course the rainfall is going to be a big threat. Starting Sunday through Tuesday much of Luzon will be drenched with heavy showers including the Manila area mainly on Monday. The hardest hit areas should be along the north eastern coast of Luzon where up to 200-300mm of rainfall could come down on Sunday night through Monday. Flooding and landslides across North Eastern Luzon will be likely on Monday. The Iligan and Tuguegarao areas could see urban flooding as well making travel for anyone headed out on Monday not only rough but possibly impossible at times.

The good news is the storm is moving at a relativly fast pace of 15km thus the rainfall shouldnt last over a long period of time and will be over by Monday afternoon in eastern Luzon.

Winds Winds will also be an issue for towns along the eastern coastlines north of the storms center of circulation. Here we could see damaging typhoon strength winds maxing out with gust as high as 90-100kts at times for coastal exposed locations. Good news as we always state with this part of the Philippines is that typhoons are not that uncommon. In fact most towns are built inland away from immediate coastal areas due to the fact that it is hit so often.

Surge Storm surge in immediate low lying areas will also be an issue. But only along immediate coastlines and areas that often flood during high tides.

Manila For the most part the NCR should miss the worst of this storm. But based on guidance at this time Tropical Storm strength winds up to 35-40kts are likely as we head through Monday morning and the storm tracks north of the city. The strongest winds will be along the bay area dissapating the farther you go inland.

This is enough to blow around light debris making for dangerous driving conditions. In SHORT its going to be a messy Sunday and Monday in Luzon. Stay tuned to your official agency PAGASA for local warnings and as always be smart about how you plan your day during these storms. If you are being advised to evacuate, get to an evacuation center! Stay safe everyone.”- westernpacificweather.com/2014/09/14/typhoon-kalmaegi-luis-nearing-landfall-sunday/

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South Korea/ Yellow Sea: Severe Tropical Storm NAKRI 1412 12W 021500Z near 33.7N 124.8E, moving N at 10km/h(6kt)(JMA) – Updated 020814 1837z (UTC)

Tropical Storm NAKRI

1412 (JMA) #12W (JTWC)

 9/02/20149/03/2014

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS NOW OUT OF DATE

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency (JMA is the lead agency in this area)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

TS 1412 (NAKRI)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 2 August 2014

<Analyses at 02/15 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N33°40′(33.7°)
E124°50′(124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E560km(300NM)
W370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 03/03 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N34°50′(34.8°)
E124°35′(124.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 03/15 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°25′(35.4°)
E125°10′(125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N36°30′(36.5°)
E126°50′(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slowly
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N38°00′(38.0°)
E129°00′(129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
 Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

South Korea

Korea Meteorological Administration

No.12 NAKRI

Issued at(KST) : 2014.08.03. 01:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2014.08.02. 15:00 Analysis 33.5 124.7 985 25 90 300
(NNE 260)
Normal Medium N 11
2014.08.03. 03:00 Forecast 34.6 124.8 990 24 86 250
(NNE 220)
Weak Small N 10 100
2014.08.03. 15:00 Forecast 35.5 125.1 994 21 76 210
(NNE 180)
Weak Small NNE 9 150
2014.08.04. 03:00 Forecast 36.1 125.6 996 19 68 150
(NE 120)
Weak Small NE 7 210
2014.08.04. 15:00 Forecast 36.6 126.2 1000 NE 6

�� It is provided only for the typhoon information in progress. The past information could be found in National Typhoon Center homepage.

�� National Typhoon Center Homepage

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1214.gif

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp12140215.gif

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/12W_021132sair.jpg

WTPN32 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
021200Z — NEAR 33.3N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.3N 124.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z — 34.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 35.3N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 36.1N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 36.9N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 39.0N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 33.6N 124.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND
031500Z. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logo

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Aug, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NAKRI (12W) currently located near 32.7 N 124.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    China
        probability for TS is 75% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 72 hours
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Sariwon (38.5 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    P’yongyang (39.0 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Other Reports

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 021200
WARNING 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1412 NAKRI (1412) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 980 HPA
AT 33.3N 124.5E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 34.6N 124.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 35.4N 125.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 36.5N 126.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 38.0N 129.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1200

WWJP25 RJTD 021200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 51N 157E
60N 163E 60N 180E 40N 180E 40N 160E 36N 150E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 56N 142E ESE SLOWLY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 42N 153E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 53N 166E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 29N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 40N 174E EAST SLOWLY.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1411 HALONG (1411) 935 HPA AT 14.9N 135.1E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1412 NAKRI (1412) 980 HPA AT 33.3N 124.5E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA /1200

WWCI50 BABJ 021200
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1530UTC AUG.02 2014=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC AUG. 02=
FORECAST VALID 1200UTC AUG. 03=
WARNNING=
SUPER TY HALONG 1411(1411) 940HPA AT 15.1N 135.1E
MOVING WNW 12KM/H AND MAX WINDS 58M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 19.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
300KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
480KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
AND PADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
160KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
210KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
AND PADIUS OF 64KTS WINDS
70KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
AND FORECAST FOR 031200UTC AT 16.2N 132.5E 910HPA
AND MAX WINDS 65M/S NEAR CENTER=
TS NAKRI 1412(1412) 985HPA AT 32.8N 124.6E
MOVING NNW 12KM/H AND MAX WINDS 23M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 7.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
400KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
400KM SOUTHWEST
350KM NORTHWEST
AND FORECAST FOR 031200UTC AT 35.3N 125.1E 995HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
WINDS FROM 12 TO 18M/S GUST 23M/S SEAS UP TO 5.5M
OVER SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 16 TO 23M/S GUST 28M/S SEAS
UP TO 6.0M OVER NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
AND BASHI CHANNEL AND SOUTH PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 14 TO 20M/S GUST 23M/S SEAS UP TO
6.0M OVER KOREA STRAIT=
SLY WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
4.0M OVER SEA NEAR RYUKYU ISLANDS AND SEA SOUTHWEST
OF JAPAN=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 38 TO 50M/S SEAS UP TO 15.0M
OVER SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 20 TO 28M/S SEAS UP TO 9.0M
OVER SEA WEST OF GUAM=
WINDS FROM 42 TO 52M/S SEAS UP TO 17.0M OVER SEAS
NEAR CENTER OF HALONG=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER SOUTH PART
OF YELLOW SEA AND NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND
SEA NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN AND KOREA STRAIT AND SEA
SOUTHWEST OF JAPAN AND SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA
ISLANDS AND ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
AND SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT BANDA AND LAUT MALUKU=
FORECAST=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 16 TO 24M/S GUST 25 TO 32M/S
SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER MIDDLE AND SOUTH PARTS OF
YELLOW SEA AND NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
NE WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS
UP TO 4.0M OVER NORTH PART OF YELLOW SEA=
NE WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S GUST 17M/S SEAS UP TO
2.5M OVER BOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT=
SW WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER
SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT
AND MIDDLE PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER SEA
EAST OF TAIWAN AND BASHI CHANNEL AND SOUTH PART OF
SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 17M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SOUTHWEST PART FO JAPAN SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 16 TO 24M/S SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER
KOREA STRAIT=
SLY/SE WINDS FROM 08 TO 17M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=
NW WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S WILL INCREASE FROM 18 TO
24M/S SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER SEA NORTHEAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 33 TO 41M/S SEAS UP TO 14.0M
OVER SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS=
SW WINDS FROM 18 TO 24M/S SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER SEA
WEST OF GUAM=
WINDS FROM 50 TO 60M/S SEAS UP TO 18.0M OVER
SEAS NEAR CENTER OF HALONG=

China/ Taiwan: Tropical Storm Matmo (10W): 240600Z near 29.1N 117.9E, moving N at 25kmh(13knots) (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 240714 0745z (UTC)

Tropical Storm  1410 (MATMO) ( RSMC Tokyo)

Tropical Storm  201410 (MATMO) (CWB Taiwan)

 Tropical Storm 10W (MATMO)(TWC)

Bagyong Henry (#HenryPH) in Philippines

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

RSMC Tokyo (Lead agency in this area)

Japan Meteorological agency

TS 1410 (MATMO)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 24 July 2014

<Analyses at 24/06 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N29°05′(29.1°)
E117°55′(117.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E500km(270NM)
W330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 24/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N32°50′(32.8°)
E118°35′(118.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 25/06 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N35°55′(35.9°)
E120°35′(120.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TAIWAN

Typhoon Path

Taiwan Weather Warning

HONG KONG

Tropical Storm MATMO
at 08:00 HKT 24 July 2014

Position: 27.9 N, 117.9 E (about 730 km north-northeast of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 85 km/h

Tropical Cyclone Track at 08:00 HKT 24 July 2014

Tropical Cyclone Track at 08:00 HKT 24 July 2014

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
08:00 HKT 25 July 2014 33.4 N 119.7 E Tropical Depression 45 km/h
08:00 HKT 26 July 2014 38.4 N 123.5 E Tropical Depression 55 km/h
08:00 HKT 27 July 2014 40.1 N 127.0 E Extratropical Low

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The accuracies, based on average errors, of the latest analysed and forecast positions are of the order of:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 150 km
    48-hour forecast position 250 km
    72-hour forecast position 350 km
  • The centres of the red, blue and grey circles are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure). The radii of the circles are the respective accuracies.
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are based on Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warning for shipping issued eight times a day at 0:30, 3:30, 6:30, 9:30, 12:30, 15:30, 18:30 and 21:30 HKT, about one and a half hours after the time of observation. The analysed positions incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based provisional positions given in the hourly bulletins for public. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/10W_231132sair.jpg

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 231500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 025
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 10W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 25.8N 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8N 119.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 28.0N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 30.6N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 26.4N 118.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEGENERATE AS
IT TRAVERSES NORTH IN EASTERN CHINA ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SITUATED OVER THE RYUKYU ISLAND CHAIN.
MATMO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
TOPOGRAPHICAL FRICTION AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER
LAND, APPROXIMATELY 150NM WEST OF SHANGHAI IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
IT IS ABSORBED IN THE MID-LATITUDE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 23 Jul, 2014 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm MATMO (10W) currently located near 25.8 N 119.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

OTHER REPORTS

Matmo Weakens but still causing problems. ( Thursday Update )

MARITIME

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 240600
WARNING 240600.
WARNING VALID 250600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1410 MATMO (1410) 990 HPA
AT 29.1N 117.9E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 32.8N 118.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 35.9N 120.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0000

WWJP25 RJTD 240000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 240000.
WARNING VALID 250000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 38N 142E 40N 142E
42N 141E 42N 143E 46N 150E 51N 157E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 44N
180E 38N 160E 38N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 48N 134E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 42N 147E ENE 15 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 49N 148E ENE 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 10N 135E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 08N 148E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 24N 136E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 47N 176E ALMOST STATIONARY.
WARM FRONT FROM 42N 147E TO 40N 150E 38N 151E.
COLD FRONT FROM 42N 147E TO 40N 145E 38N 141E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 38N 141E TO 37N 133E 36N 120E 32N 115E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1410 MATMO (1410) 990 HPA AT 27.9N 117.7E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 0600

WWCI50 BABJ 240000
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 0330UTC JUL.24 2014=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000UTC JUL. 24=
FORECAST VALID 0000UTC JUL. 25=
WARNNING=
STS MATMO 1410(1410) 990HPA AT 27.9N 117.9E
MOVING N 30KM/H AND MAX WINDS 23M/S AND
FORECAST FOR 250000UTC AT 34.5N 118.8E 998HPA
AND MAX WINDS 15M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
SLY WINDS FROM 14 TO 22M/S GUST 26M/S SEAS UP TO
4.5M OVER EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT AND
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND NORTHEAST PART OF
SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 14M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
3.0M OVER BASHI CHANNEL AND SOUTHWEST PART OF
SOUTH CHINA SEA=
FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SOUTH PARTS OF
YELLOW SEA AND HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS
THAN 5KM=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM ALSO OVER
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA AND
SUNDA STRAIT=
FORECAST=
SE WINDS FROM 06 TO 08M/S BACK NE WINDS FROM 12
TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER BOHAI SEA
AND BOHAI STRAIT AND NORTH AND MIDDLE PARTS
OF YELLOW SEA=
SLY/SE WINDS 12 TO 18M/S GUST 22M/S SEAS
UP TO 3.5M OVER SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA
AND NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
SLY/SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUST 24M/S SEAS
UP TO 4.5M OVER SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
AND TAIWAN STRAIT AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 14M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
3.5M OVER BASHI CHANNEL=
SW WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM 14 TO 20M/S GUST 24M/S
TO 08 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER NORTHEAST PART
OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 14M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
3.0M OVER SOUTH PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 12 TO 14M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP
TO 3.0M OVER SEA WEST OF GUAM=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 14M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP
TO 2.5M OVER SEA NORTHEAST OF INDONESIA=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 0000

WWHK82 VHHH 240000
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
TROPICAL STORM (TS) MATMO(1410):
RADIUS OF GALES: 90 NM OVER E SEMICIRCLE, 60 NM ELSEWHERE.
SYNOPSIS (240000UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MATMO (1410) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TS.
AT 240000UTC, MATMO WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA AND
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KT WAS CENTERED WITHIN 60 NM OF 27.9N
117.9E AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE N AT ABOUT 14 KT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 250000UTC: 33.4N, 119.7E
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER GALE WARNING AREA.
SWELL S TO SW 3 M OVER SEAS NEAR LUZON, SEAS NEAR TAIWAN,
NE PART OF SCS.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQUALLY(SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) WITHIN 180 NM FROM CENTRE OF MATMO(1410).
SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF
SCS AND SEAS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VIS 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

 http://www.passageweather.com/maps/chinasea/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China: City of Yumen sealed off, 151 people quarantined, after Bubonic Plague death – Published 230714 1111z

Plague kills man in NW China

LANZHOU, July 18 (Xinhua) — A 38-year-old man in northwest China’s Gansu Province has died of plague, local authorities said.

The case was reported in Yumen City under the jurisdiction of Jiuquan City, the Jiuquan government said on Thursday. The man, who died on Wednesday, had been in contact with a dead marmot, which is of the squirrel family.

A total of 151 people who had close contact with the man have been put in quarantine and are under medical observation. None of them has reported syndromes of the disease so far, according to the local government.

The National Health and Family Planning Commission has sent disease prevention and control specialists to Yumen to prevent the plague from spreading.

Plague is categorized as a Class A infectious disease, the most serious under China’s Law on the Prevention and Treatment of Infectious Diseases.

END

The Guardian home

Chinese city sealed off after bubonic plague death

30,000 residents of Yumen are not being allowed to leave and 151 people have been placed in quarantine after man’s death
  • theguardian.com, Tuesday 22 July 2014 12.59 BST

A Chinese city has been sealed off and 151 people have been placed in quarantine since last week after a man died of bubonic plague, state media said.

The 30,000 residents of Yumen, in the north-western province of Gansu, are not being allowed to leave, and police at roadblocks on the perimeter of the city are telling motorists to find alternative routes, China Central Television (CCTV) said.

A 38-year-old man died last Wednesday, the report said, after he had been in contact with a dead marmot, a small furry animal related to the squirrel. No further plague cases have been reported.

CCTV said officials were not allowing anyone to leave. The China Daily newspaper said four quarantine sectors had been set up in the city.

“The city has enough rice, flour and oil to supply all its residents for up to one month,” CCTV added. “Local residents and those in quarantine are all in stable condition.” No further cases have been reported.

Bubonic plague is a bacterial infection best known for the Black Death, a virulent epidemic that killed tens of millions of people in 14th-century Europe. Primarily an animal illness, it is extremely rare in humans.

The US Centres for Disease Control (CDC) says modern antibiotics are effective in treating plague, but that without prompt treatment the disease can cause serious illness or death.

END

Bubonic plague

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This article is about the disease in general. For information about the medieval European plague, see Black Death
Bubonic plague is a zoonotic disease, circulating mainly in fleas on small rodents, and is one of three types of bacterial infections caused by Yersinia pestis (formerly known as Pasteurella pestis), that belongs to the family Enterobacteriaceae. Without treatment, the bubonic plague kills about two thirds of infected humans within four days.

The term bubonic plague is derived from the Greek word βουβών, meaning “groin”. Swollen lymph nodes (buboes) especially occur in the armpit and groin in persons suffering from bubonic plague. Bubonic plague was often used synonymously for plague, but it does in fact refer specifically to an infection that enters through the skin and travels through the lymphatics, as is often seen in flea-borne infections.

Bubonic plague—along with the septicemic plague and the pneumonic plague, which are the two other manifestations of Y. pestis—is commonly believed to be the cause of the Black Death that swept through Europe in the 14th century and killed an estimated 25 million people, or 30–60% of the European population.[1] Around the Mediterranean Region, summers seemed to be the season when the disease took place. While in Europe, people found the disease most occurring in the autumn.[2] Because the plague killed so many of the working population, wages rose and some historians have seen this as a turning point in European economic development.[3][4]

More from Wikipedia (link)

Hainan/ China/ Vietnam: Typhoon Rammasun/ Glenda (09W): 181800Z near 21.0N 109.4E, moving NW at 20kmh (11kt)(JMA) – Updated 180714 2012z (UTC)

THIS IS NOW OUT OF DATE

Typhoon

Rammasun/Glenda was from 17 to 19 July 2014

Typhoon Rammasun/Glenda (09W)

(Equivalent to a CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

TY 1409 (RAMMASUN) (JMA)

Rammasun has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 Super Typhoon (1-min sustained winds) and is now affecting Hainan and other parts of Southern China. This highly catastrophic storm is one of the strongest cyclones to ever hit Southern China and will affect as much as 20 million people over the next 24 hours – WestPacWx

 Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours – TSR

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

Japan Meteorological agency

TY 1409 (RAMMASUN)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 18 July 2014

<Analyses at 18/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N21°00′(21.0°)
E109°25′(109.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E330km(180NM)
W220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 19/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°55′(21.9°)
E107°35′(107.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 19/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N22°35′(22.6°)
E105°50′(105.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 20/18 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N23°05′(23.1°)
E104°20′(104.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 1002hPa
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Hong Kong

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
Bulletin issued at 03:45 HKT 19/Jul/2014

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

All signals were cancelled at 3:40 a.m.

At 4 a.m., Severe Typhoon Rammasun was centred about 540 kilometres west-southwest of Hong Kong (near 21.3 degrees north 109.1 degrees east) and is forecast to move northwest or west-northwest at about 22 kilometres per hour across Beibu Wan towards the coast of Guangxi.

Rammasun is moving across Beibu Wan and will soon make landfall over the coast of Guangxi. As Rammasun gradually moves away from Hong Kong, local winds continue to moderate. Yet there will still be squally showers today.

Since there will be swells, members of the public should remain on the alert.

Super Typhoon RAMMASUN
at 02:00 HKT 19 July 2014

Position: 20.9 N, 109.5 E (about 510 km west-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 185 km/h
Forecast moving direction and speed: northwest or west-northwest, 22 km/h

Tropical Cyclone Track at 02:00 HKT 19 July 2014

Tropical Cyclone Track at 02:00 HKT 19 July 2014

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
23:00 HKT 19 July 2014 22.5 N 106.1 E Typhoon 120 km/h
23:00 HKT 20 July 2014 22.7 N 103.0 E Low Pressure Area 40 km/h

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The accuracies, based on average errors, of the latest analysed and forecast positions are of the order of:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 150 km
    48-hour forecast position 250 km
    72-hour forecast position 350 km

     

  • The centres of the red, blue and grey circles are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure). The radii of the circles are the respective accuracies.
  • The analysed tropical cyclone position (the symbol tropical cyclone symbol ) is based on Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly bulletin for public derived from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions.
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are updated every hour. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong, and forecast moving direction and speed.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/09W_181132sair.jpg

 

 

WTPN32 PGTW 181500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 033
DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON 09W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
181200Z — NEAR 20.3N 110.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 110.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 21.5N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 22.6N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 23.4N 104.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 109.8E.
TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251 NM EAST OF
HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 35
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 18 Jul, 2014 12:00 GMT

Typhoon RAMMASUN (09W) currently located near 20.3 N 110.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
   China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Rammasun has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 Super Typhoon (1-min sustained winds) and is now affecting Hainan and other parts of Southern China. This highly catastrophic storm is one of the strongest cyclones to ever hit Southern China and will affect as much as 20 million people over the next 24 hours.

Watch WxCaster PAT’s latest Video Update below for more in-depth analysis and forecasts for Super Typhoon Rammasun.

China Meteorological Administration (CMA) confirmed landfall at the city of Wenchang on the Northeastern part of Hainan Island. A weather station in this city recorded winds of 180kph to as much as 220kph! The city of Haikou is also reporting sustained typhoon-force winds of up to 130kph and gusts of up to 165kph! Another highly-populated city that this system is affecting is Zhanjiang which is home to nearly 1.2 million people (nearly 7 million people metro-wide).

CCTV has now reported at least one confirmed death due to the storm. 

Radar Image from CMA

rammasun radar hainan

Latest radar image out of Hainan shows the perfectly symmetrical eye now moving into Leizhou Peninsula. Widespread heavy rains

Via CCTV

are affecting much of Hainan and parts of Guangdong Province. Outer rain bands are moving as far away as Hong Kong bringing light to moderate rains in the area. We are expecting anywhere from 200 to as much as 300mm of rainfall over the next 24 hours for Hainan and Leizhou. This will only compound to the already damaging winds in the area. Furthermore, coastal areas will also be dealing with significant storm surge especially along the eastern portions of Leizhou Peninsula.

For the latest radar images and warnings from China, please click HERE (CMA Website)

As many as 40,000 people have been told to evacuate ahead of the storm in the area.

 

Super Typhoon Rammasun will continue moving slowly northwestward and will continue to bring damaging weather conditions across Southern China for the next 12 hours. It will move into the Gulf of Tonkin and will weaken slightly but will still be a significant threat for Guangxi Province and Northern Vietnam.

——

Storm

Before the storms impact on China Typhoon Glenda (Sawyerean name Gøring, International name Rammasun) struck Metro Manila and is probably the strongest to hit Metro Manila since Typhoon Milenyo of 2006.

The storm has now caused at least 64 deaths, as tallied by the National Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC).

In Metro Manila, damage has been extensive. Until now power is yet to be restored in many areas, and Meralco announced of rotating blackout as the power supply in Luzon areas are insufficient to meet demands, due to damaged transmission lines and substations.

The rotating blackouts will ensue until the power supply stabilized, and Meralco has not yet established a definite timetable for this.

The strongest winds pummeled the Metro between 6 to 9 in the morning, where ferocious winds battered the metro. Lots of old trees, some as old as hundred years, fell, and many power lines were knocked out.

Roxas BLVD Via Rappler

 

We’ll continue to have updates on Rammasun as well as on the newest Tropical Storm (Matmo or Bagyong Henry) out in the Philippine Sea. Please stay safe and always heed the warnings of your local officials!

” –

NEWS

Australia Network News

At least one person killed after southern China’s strongest typhoon in four decades: state media

Updated 1937 UTC 18 July 2014

China’s state media says at least one person has been killed after southern China’s strongest typhoon in four decades made landfall in Hainan.

The National Meteorological Centre says Super Typhoon Rammasun ploughed into Wengtian, a town on the northeastern tip of the island, yesterday afternoon.

It was packing winds of up to 216 kilometres an hour.

Ahead of the typhoon’s arrival, hundreds of thousands of people were evacuated and hundreds of flights cancelled.

Super Typhoon Rammasun has already killed at least 54 people in the Philippines and is bringing heavy rains.

 

The Hainan government says it has ordered fishermen back to port while many flights, and all train services, are cancelled.

State television says access to all scenic spots on the island, which styles itself as China’s answer to Hawaii, had been closed, and 30,000 people evacuated from low-lying coastal areas.

Premier Li Keqiang, describing the situation as severe, says people’s lives must be put first.

“Prevent any accidents that may be caused (by the typhoon) and reduce disaster losses as much as possible,” the Hainan government cites Premier Li as saying.

Typhoons are common at this time of year in the South China Sea, picking up strength from the warm waters and dissipating over land.

Flooding across a large swathe of southern China in the past week has already killed at least 34 people.

Reuters/AFP

Preparing for a storm

  • Prepare an emergency kit based on the list here.
  • Make a note of the location of any item not in your kit.

During a Storm

  • Monitor your local emergency broadcaster for updates, warnings and advice
  • While conditions are severe, remain indoors and stay clear of windows
  • Make contact with neighbours and family members to ensure they’re safe and prepared
  • If you’re in your car, don’t drive into water without knowing the strength of the current and depth
  • Slow down, turn on your headlights and be aware of hazards on the roads such as powerlines and trees

After a Storm

  • Stay clear of creeks, drains and other water ways, as there’s a risk of flooding including flash floods
  • Be careful of fallen trees, powerlines and damaged buildings
  • Don’t go sightseeing, you could hamper the efforts of emergency services
  • Check on your neighbours as soon as it’s safe to do so

For more information, see ABC Emergency’s storm plan page

MARITIME

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 181800
WARNING 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1410 MATMO (1410) 994 HPA
AT 11.1N 132.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 13.5N 130.0E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 16.6N 127.4E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 19.2N 123.6E WITH 210 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 181200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 141E 43N 142E
51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 31N 172E 43N 165E 36N 157E 35N
141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 35N 150E SE 10 KT.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 31N 172E ENE 20 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 30N 142E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 49N 163E WEST 10 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1409 RAMMASUN (1409) 940 HPA AT 20.3N 110.2E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1410 MATMO (1410) 1000 HPA AT 10.6N 133.5E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 1200

WWCI50 BABJ 181200
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1530UTC JUL.18 2014=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC JUL. 18=
FORECAST VALID 1200UTC JUL. 19=
WARNNING=
SUPERTY RAMMASUN 1409(1409) 915HPA AT 20.3N 110.3E
MOVING WNW 22KM/H AND MAX WINDS 55M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 12.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
260KM NORTHEAST
300KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
260KM NORTHWEST
AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
140KM NORTHEAST
160KM SOUTHEAST
140KM SOUTHWEST
140KM NORTHWEST
AND RADIUS OF 64KTS WINDS
60KM NORTHEAST
60KM SOUTHEAST
60KM SOUTHWEST
60KM NORTHWEST
FORECAST FOR 191200UTC AT 22.6N 106.4E 995HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
TS MATMO 1410(1410) 994HPA AT 10.9N 133.5E
MOVING NW 10KM/H AND MAX WINDS 20M/S NEAR
CENTER (SEAS UP TO 3.5M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
130KM NORTHEAST
230KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
280KM NORTHWEST
FORECAST FOR 191200UTC AT 12.7N 131.9E 985HPA
AND MAX WINDS 28M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
WINDS FROM 26 TO 34M/S GUST 38 TO 44M/S SEAS UP TO
8.5M OVER NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA AND
QIONGZHOU STRAIT=
WINDS FROM 42 TO 55M/S SEAS UP TO 12.0M OVER
SEA NEAR CENTER OF RAMMASUN=
SE WINDS FROM 14 TO 18M/S GUST 22M/S SEAS UP TO
4.5M OVER NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 18 TO 24M/S GUST 26 TO 30M/S SEAS UP
TO 5.5M OVER MID-WEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 20 TO 25M/S SEAS UP TO 5.0M OVER
NORTHEAST PART OF BEIBU GULF=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER
SOUTH PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 14 TO 20M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M
OVER SEA WEST OF GUAM=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER PART
OF BOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT AND YELLOW SEA AND
NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA AND QIONGZHOU
STRAIT AND SEA WEST OF GUAM AND ANDAMAN SEA AND
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE
AND SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT MALUKU AND LAUT BANDA=
FORECAST=
WINDS FROM 25 TO 34M/S SEAS UP TO 8.5M OVER
NORTH PART OF BEIBU GULF AND QIONGZH