Philippines/ China/ South China Sea: Tropical Storm NURI 02W 12/1200Z 16.8N 117.2E, moving W 11kt. Max wind 35kt. 998hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Published 12 Jun 2020 1425Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm NURI 02W

“BUTCHOY” SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM LUZON (PAGASA)

The tropical cyclone now over the central part of the South China Sea is expected to intensify gradually, and will edge closer to the coast of western Guangdong in the next couple of days. (HKO)

logo

2002-00

 

TS 2002 (Nuri)
Issued at 13:05 UTC, 12 June 2020

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 12 June>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N16°50′ (16.8°)
E117°10′ (117.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 13 June>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N18°25′ (18.4°)
E115°25′ (115.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (35 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 13 June>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N20°00′ (20.0°)
E113°35′ (113.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 14 June>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N23°30′ (23.5°)
E110°20′ (110.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Radius of probability circle 165 km (90 NM)

 

CMA LOGO

eng_nmc_tcbu_sfer_eme_acwp_l89_0w00010000_20200612170000007

 

Typhoon Message
20200612 20:56

National Meteorological Center No.1872
Analysis Time: Jun. 12th 12 UTC
Name of TC: NURI
Num. of TC: 2002
Current Location: 17.1°N 117.2°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 18m/s(64.8km/h)
Central Pressure: 998hPa
Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 180km SE 150km SW 140km NW 120km
Forecast movement: next 24hrs NURI will moving NW at speed of 17km/h

xxxxx

Philippines

Tropical Depression”Butchoy”

Tropical Cyclone: ALERT

Issued at 11:00 am, 12 June 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 11:00 PM today or earlier.)
“BUTCHOY” SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM LUZON.
  • Tropical Depression BUTCHOY is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm within 24 hours. It is also expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight or tomorrow morning and is forecast to move generally northwestward towards southern China.
  • All tropical cyclone wind signals have been lifted. However, occasional gusts associated with the Southwest Monsoon may still be experienced over most of Northern and Central Luzon and the western section of Southern Luzon and Visayas.
  • Heavy Rainfall Outlook
  • Today: Moderate to heavy rains over Zambales, Bataan, Pangasinan, the northern portion of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands, and Occidental Mindoro. Light to moderate with at times heavy monsoon rains over Metro Manila, Western Visayas, and the rest of Luzon.
  • Flooding and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. The public and disaster risk reduction and management offices are advised to take appropriate measures and monitor the Rainfall or Thunderstorm Advisories or Heavy Rainfall Warnings of PAGASA Regional Services Divisions.
  • Coastal Water Conditions
  • In the next 24 hours, moderate to very rough seas (1.5 to 4.5 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon especially over the seaboards of Ilocos Region, Zambales and Bataan due to BUTCHOY and the Southwest Monsoon. Sea travel is risky especially for those using small seacrafts.
Location of Eye/center

At 10:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression “BUTCHOY” was estimated based on all available data at 140 km West Northwest of Iba, Zambales or 165 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan (15.9 °N, 118.8 °E )

Movement

Moving West Northwestward at 25 km/h

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h

Forecast Position
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 390 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR)(17.4°N, 116.7°E)
  • 48 Hour(Sunday morning):915 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)(20.9°N, 113.2°E)
Wind Signal
No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next update to be incorporated in the 4 PM Public Weather Forecast and in the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2002 NURI (2002) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998
HPA
AT 16.8N 117.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 18.4N 115.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 20.0N 113.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 23.5N 110.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

CHINA

海事天气公报
制作:赵伟   2020 年  06 月  12 日  18 时

MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING

AT 1015UTC JUN.12 2020=

MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC JUN.12=

FCST VALID 0600UTC JUN.13=

WARNNING=

NIL=

SUMMARY=

TD(01) 1000HPA AT 16.5N 118.3E MVG WNW 17KMH

AND MAX WINDS 15M/S NEAR CENTER(SEAS UP TO 4.0M)

AND FCST FOR 130600UTC AT 18.9N 115.0E 990HPA

AND MAX WINDS 23M/S NEAR CENTER=

SW WINDS FROM 12 TO 14M/S GUSTS 16M/S SEAS UP TO

3.0M OVER SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=

SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO

2.5M OVER BASHI CHANNEL AND SEA EAST OF THE

PHILIPPINES

AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER BOHAI STRAIT AND

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF YELLOW SEA AND

SOUTHWESTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA AND HORIZONTAL

VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1KM=

HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM ALSO OVER

NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND KOREA STRAIT

AND SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN AND EAST CENTRAL SOUTH

CHINA SEA AND ANDAMAN SEA AND LAUT MALUKU=

FCST=

BOHAI SEA

S WINDS 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE SLT TO SMOOTH FOG

VIS POOR TO MOD=

BOHAI STRAIT

S WINDS BACK E 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE SMOOTH HVY

FOG VIS VERY POOR=

NORTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA

S WINDS BACK E 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE SMOOTH HVY

FOG VIS VERY POOR=

CENTRAL PART OF YELLOW SEA

E WINDS 04 TO 07M/S INCR 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO

12M/S SEA STATE SLT FOG BECMG HVY FOG VIS VERY

POOR=

SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA

E WINDS VEER SW 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE SLT TO MOD

MOD RAIN BECMG HVY RAIN VIS VERY POOR=

NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA

S WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S VEER SW

WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD

OVERCAST BECMG CLOUDY VIS POOR TO GOOD=

SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA

S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE

MOD OVERCAST VIS GOOD=

TAIWAN STRAIT

SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE

MOD OVERCAST VIS GOOD TO MOD=

SEA EAST OF TAIWAN

S WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO

12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST

VIS POOR=

BASHI CHANNEL

SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE

ROUGH OVERCAST VIS POOR TO MOD=

NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA

E WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S BECMG

CYCLONIC WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA

STATE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVERCAST VIS POOR TO

VERY=

EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA

CYCLONIC WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA

STATE ROUGH HVY RAIN VIS VERY POOR=

SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA

SW WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY BECMG

LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR=

SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA

SW WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY BECMG

LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR=

NORTHEASTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA

W WINDS BACK SW 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE SLT HVY FOG

VIS MOD TO POOR=

SOUTHWESTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA

S WINDS VEER SW 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE SLT HVY FOG

VIS POOR TO VERY=

KOREA STRAIT

SW WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO

12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT TO MOD FOG

BECMG RAINSTORM VIS VERY POOR=

SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN

SW WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO

12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN

BECMG OVERCAST VIS VERY POOR TO POOR=

SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES

SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO

10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST

VIS POOR TO MOD=

SEA SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES

E WINDS 04 TO 07M/S INCR 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO

12M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY VIS POOR TO MOD=

SEA WEST OF GUAM

E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS

POOR=

SEA SOUTHWEST OF THE PHILIPPINES

SE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE SLT CLOUDY VIS MOD

TO POOR=

SEA NORTHEAST OF INDONESIA

E WINDS 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE SLT TO MOD LIGHT

RAIN VIS POOR=

SEA SOUTHEAST OF INDONESIA

SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS

POOR=

SEA SOUTH OF JAWA

SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY VIS MOD=

SEA WEST OF SUMATERA

SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO

12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD TO ROUGH

CLOUDY VIS POOR TO MOD=

MALACCA STRAIT

SE WINDS VEER S 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE SLT CLOUDY

VIS POOR TO MOD=

SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE

SW WINDS 04 TO 07M/S BACK S WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA

STATE SMOOTH TO SLT LIGHT RAIN BECMG CLOUDY VIS

POOR=

SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM

W WINDS BACK SW 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE SLT LIGHT

RAIN VIS POOR=

GULF OF THAILAND

W WINDS 04 TO 07M/S INCR 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO

12M/S SEA STATE SLT CLOUDY BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS

POOR=

ANDAMAN SEA

SW WINDS VEER W 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY

BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR=

海事公报(北京,中央气象台)

2020年06月12日1015时(世界时)

06月12日0600时(世界时)海事分析

06月13日0600时(世界时)海事预报

海事分析

热带低压(01)位于北纬16.5度、东经118.3度,中心气压1000百帕,中心附近最大风速15米/秒,浪高4.0米,以17公里/小时的速度向西西北方向移动。

预计13日0600时(世界时)位于北纬18.9度、东经115.0度,中心气压990百帕,中心附近最大风速23米/秒。

日本以南洋面出现了6~7级、阵风8级的西南风,浪高3.0米;

巴士海峡、菲律宾以东洋面、南海东北部海域出现了6~7级、阵风8级的东南风,浪高2.5米;

渤海海峡、黄海北部和中部海域、日本海西南部海域出现了能见度不足1公里的大雾。

能见度不足10公里的海域还有东海北部海域、朝鲜海峡、日本以南洋面、南海中东部海域、安达曼海以及马鲁古海等海域。

海事预报

渤海

南风3~4级,海况轻浪转小浪,雾,能见度差转中等。

渤海海峡

南风转东风3~4级,海况小浪,大雾,能见度极差。

黄海北部海域

南风转东风3~4级,海况小浪,大雾,能见度极差。

黄海中部海域

东风3~4级增大至4~5级,海况轻浪,雾转大雾,能见度极差。

黄海南部海域

东风转西南风4~5级,海况轻浪转中浪,中雨转大雨,能见度极差。

东海北部海域

南风4~5级、阵风5~6级转西南风5~6级、阵风6~7级,海况中浪,阴转多云,能见度差转好。

东海南部海域

南风5~6级、阵风6~7级,海况中浪,阴,能见度好。

台湾海峡

东南风5~6级、阵风6~7级,海况中浪,阴,能见度好转中等。

台湾以东洋面

南风4~5级、阵风5~6级增大至5~6级、阵风6~7级,海况中浪,阴,能见度差。

巴士海峡

东南风6~7级、阵风7~8级,海况大浪,阴,能见度差转中等。

南海东北部海域

东风6~7级、阵风7~8级转旋转风7~8级、阵风8~9级,海况大浪转巨浪,阴,能见度差转极差。

南海中东部海域

旋转风7~8级、阵风8~9级,海况大浪,大雨,能见度极差。

南海西南部海域

西南风4~5级,海况中浪,多云转小雨,能见度差。

南海东南部海域

西南风4~5级,海况中浪,多云转小雨,能见度差。

日本海东北部海域

西风转西南风4~5级,海况轻浪,大雾,能见度中等转差。

日本海西南部海域

南风转西南风3~4级,海况轻浪,大雾,能见度差转极差。

朝鲜海峡

西南风4~5级、阵风5~6级增大至5~6级、阵风6~7级,海况轻浪转中浪,雾转暴雨,能见度极差。

日本以南洋面

西南风6~7级、阵风7~8级减小至5~6级、阵风6~7级,海况中浪,小雨转阴,能见度极差转差。

菲律宾东北洋面

东南风5~6级、阵风6~7级减小至4~5级、阵风5~6级,海况中浪,阴,能见度差转中等。

菲律宾东南洋面

东风3~4级增大至4~5级,海况中浪,多云,能见度差转中等。

关岛以西洋面

东风4~5级,海况中浪,小雨,能见度差。

菲律宾西南海域

东南风3~4级,海况轻浪,多云,能见度中等转差。

印度尼西亚东北海域

东风3~4级,海况轻浪转中浪,小雨,能见度差。

印度尼西亚东南海域

东南风4~5级,海况中浪,小雨,能见度差。

爪哇岛以南海域

东南风4~5级,海况中浪,多云,能见度中等。

苏门答腊以西洋面

东南风4~5级、阵风5~6级增大至5~6级、阵风6~7级,海况中浪转大浪,多云,能见度差转中等。

马六甲海峡

东南风转南风3~4级,海况轻浪,多云,能见度差转中等。

新加坡以东海域

西南风3~4级转南风4~5级,海况小浪转轻浪,小雨转多云,能见度差。

越南以南海域

西风转西南风4~5级,海况轻浪,小雨,能见度差。

泰国湾

西风3~4级增大至4~5级,海况轻浪,多云转小雨,能见度差。

安达曼海

西南风转西风3~4级,海况中浪,多云转小雨,能见度差。

Hong Kong

Bulletin issued at 21:30 HKT 12/Jun/2020

Tropical Cyclone Warning

Tropical depression over the central part of the South China Sea with central pressure 998 hectopascals was named Nuri. At 121200 UTC, it was centred within 90 nautical miles of one six point seven degrees north (16.7 N) one one seven point eight degrees east (117.8 E) and is forecast to move northwest at about 12 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 30 knots. Radius of over 2 metre waves 180 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 131200 UTC Two zero point three degrees north (20.3 N) One one four point three degrees east (114.3 E) Maximum winds 50 knots. Forecast position and intensity at 141200 UTC Two three point seven degrees north (23.7 N) One one one point one degrees east (111.1 E) Maximum winds 25 knots. Forecast position and intensity at 151200 UTC Dissipated over land.

The Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warnings for shipping are issued about one and a half hours after the time of observation. They incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions given in the hourly bulletins for public.

While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm.

Tropical Cyclone Track

Tropical Cyclone Warning |  Track and Positions of Tropical Cyclones
Current Weather |  Local Weather Forecast |  9-day Weather Forecast
South China Coastal Waters |  Marine Forecast
This link will open in a new windowSevere Weather Information Centre

Philippines Tropical Cyclone Warning (link)

=========================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Ryukyu Islands/ Taiwan/ Philippines/ West Pacific: Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG 28W 22/1500Z 20.0°N 125.3°E, moving NNW 12kt. Wind 35kt, gust 50kt. 1006hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 22 Nov 2019 1900Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG (1927, 28W)

(‘Sarah’ in The Philippines)

TROPICAL STORM “SARAH” FURTHER WEAKENS AND IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) – PAGASA

Miyako Island (Miyakojima) beware!

Ishigaki Island and Okinawa be aware

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 14 FEET – JTWC

logo

1927-00-1

Weather warnings for Okinawa-honto Chiho (link)

 

TS 1927 (Fung-wong)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 22 November 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 22 November>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N24°40′ (24.7°)
E125°40′ (125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 70 km (40 NM)
NW 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 23 November>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N26°00′ (26.0°)
E125°35′ (125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 23 November>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N28°10′ (28.2°)
E126°05′ (126.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 1012 hPa
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

xxxx

TAIWAN

 

 

2019/11/22 12:00, Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG (201927) , Center Location 24.60N 125.50E, Movement: NNE 13KM/HR. Minimum Pressure 998 hpa, Maximum Wind Speed 18m/s, Gust 25m/s, Radius of 15m/s 120km. see: https://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/prevent/typhoon/ty.htm?

Philippines

Tropical Storm”Sarah”

Tropical Cyclone: ALERT

Issued at 11:00 pm, 22 November 2019
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5:00 am tomorrow.)
TROPICAL STORM “SARAH” FURTHER WEAKENS AND IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR).
  • “SARAH” is forecast to exit the PAR in the next 6 hours. Continuous weakening is expected.
  • Sea travel remains risky, especially for small sea crafts, over the seaboards of Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Ilocos Norte due to rough sea conditions associated with the Northeast Monsoon.
track-7
Location of Eye/center

At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm “SARAH” was estimated based on all available data at 600 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes (24.9 °N, 125.3 °E )

Movement

Moving North at 20 kph

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph

Forecast Position
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow evening): 960 km North Northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon(27.8°N, 126.9°E)
  • 48 Hour(Sunday evening):1,825 km Northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon(33.1°N, 133.7°E)
Wind Signal
No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next update to be incorporated in the 4 AM Public Weather Forecast and in the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 Nov, 2019 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG is currently located near 24.0 N 125.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). FUNG-WONG is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

DocR F22

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP21 RJTD 221200
WARNING 221200.
WARNING VALID 231200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1927 FUNG-WONG (1927) 1004 HPA
AT 24.3N 125.7E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 25.3N 125.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 27.1N 126.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1012 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

SHANGHAI/ China/ South Korea/ Japan: Severe Tropical Storm MITAG 29/1500Z 30.2°N 122.5°E, moving N 11kt. Wind 60kt Gust 85kt 980 hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 01 Oct 2019 1825Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm MITAG (1918, 19W)

SHANGHAI China South Korea Japan be aware

JMA logo

1918-00-2

 

 

STS 1918 (Mitag)
Issued at 15:50 UTC, 1 October 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 1 October>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N30°10′ (30.2°)
E122°30′ (122.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 440 km (240 NM)
SW 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 2 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N32°35′ (32.6°)
E124°10′ (124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 2 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N34°40′ (34.7°)
E126°30′ (126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 3 October>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N37°50′ (37.8°)
E130°55′ (130.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 170 km (90 NM)

xxxx

CHINA

typhoon_logo_v2.0

Typhoon Message
20191002 01:12

National Meteorological Center No.1122
Analysis Time: Oct. 01th 17 UTC
Name of TC: MITAG
Num. of TC: 1918
Current Location: 30.4°N 122.6°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 25m/s(90km/h)
Central Pressure: 985hPa
Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 300km SE 260km SW 200km NW 280km
Forecast movement: next 24hrs MITAG will moving NNE at speed of 25km/h

TAIWAN

 

 

 

2019/10/01 12:00, Severe Tropical Storm MITAG (201918) , Center Location 29.60N 122.20E, Movement: NNE 22KM/HR. Minimum Pressure 975 hpa, Maximum Wind Speed 30m/s, Gust 38m/s, Radius of 15m/s 180km, Radius of 25m/s 60km.

Severe Tropical Storm MITAG (201918)
Analysis
1200UTC 01 October 2019
Center Location 29.60N 122.20E
Movement  N  18km/hr
Minimum Pressure  975 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 30 m/s
Gust 38 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 25m/s  60km

Forecast
12 hours valid at:
0000UTC 02 October 2019
Center Position 31.70N 123.40E
Vector to 12 HR Position
NNE 22 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  980 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 28 m/s
Gust 35 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 70% probability circle 50km
24 hours valid at:
1200UTC 02 October 2019
Center Position 33.90N 125.40E
Vector to 24 HR Position
NE 26 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  985 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 25 m/s
Gust 33 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 70% probability circle 90km
36 hours valid at:
0000UTC 03 October 2019
Center Position 36.10N 127.80E
Vector to 36 HR Position
NE 27 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  988 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 23 m/s
Gust 30 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 70% probability circle 130km
48 hours valid at:
1200UTC 03 October 2019
Center Position 37.10N 130.40E
Vector to 48 HR Position
ENE 21 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  992 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 23 m/s
Gust 30 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 70% probability circle 170km
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW AT 48 HOURS

xxxx

South Korea

Typhoon

Forecast Chart

No.18 MITAG

Issued at(KST) : 2019.10.02. 01:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2019.10.01. 15:00 Analysis 30.5 122.6 980 29 104 330
(WSW 270)
Normal Medium NNE 20
2019.10.01. 21:00 Forecast 31.4 123.3 980 29 104 320
(W 260)
Normal Medium NE 19 24
2019.10.02. 03:00 Forecast 32.4 124.2 980 29 104 300
(W 230)
Normal Medium NE 25 48
2019.10.02. 09:00 Forecast 33.5 125.2 985 27 97 280
(WNW 210)
Normal Small NE 25 72
2019.10.02. 15:00 Forecast 34.6 126.5 985 27 97 260
(NW 180)
Normal Small NE 28 110
2019.10.02. 21:00 Forecast 35.7 128.0 990 24 86 240
(NW 160)
Small NE 31 125
2019.10.03. 03:00 Forecast 36.8 129.9 992 23 83 220
(NW 140)
Small ENE 36 140
2019.10.03. 09:00 Forecast 37.7 132.4 994 21 76 200
(NW 120)
Small ENE 40 155
2019.10.03. 15:00 Forecast 38.1 135.2 994 21 76 E 42
rtko63_20191002010018_en

xxxx

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 1 Oct, 2019 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MITAG is currently located near 30.0 N 122.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). MITAG is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Japan
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Shanghai (31.2 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 96 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 96 hours
    Hangzhou (30.3 N, 120.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

DrR Mitagg

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

 

 

WTJP31 RJTD 011500
WARNING 011500.
WARNING VALID 021500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1918 MITAG (1918) 980 HPA
AT 30.2N 122.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 32.6N 124.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 34.7N 126.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

North Korea/ South Korea/ China: Typhoon Lingling 070900Z position near 39.3N 125.9E, moving N 19kt (JTWC) – Updated 07 Sep 2019 0935Z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON LINGLING 1913 15W

LINGLING is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Typhoon 15W (Lingling) Warning #22 Final Warning
Issued at 07/0900Z

wp1519

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
070600Z — NEAR 37.9N 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 005 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.9N 125.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z — 43.4N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 30 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 48.3N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 39.3N 125.9E.
07SEP19. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF YONGSAN AIN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. A 070521Z GMI 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING (TCB) WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED
LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION OVER LAND WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON
AN UNOFFICIAL PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5/4.0 (55/65 KNOTS), WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TCB STRUCTURE. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE
UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE MIDLATITUDE JET.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

JMA logo

 

 

TY 1913 (Lingling)
Issued at 07:00 UTC, 7 September 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 7 September>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N37°55′ (37.9°)
E125°20′ (125.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 560 km (300 NM)
W 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 7 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N44°20′ (44.3°)
E128°20′ (128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 65 km/h (34 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 8 September>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N48°40′ (48.7°)
E132°30′ (132.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 984 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

xxxx

South Korea

No.13 LINGLING

Issued at(KST) : 2019.09.07. 16:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2019.09.07. 06:00 Analysis 38.0 125.5 970 35 126 300
(S 210)
Strong Medium N 49
2019.09.07. 12:00 Forecast 40.9 127.1 975 32 115 280
(WNW 200)
Normal Small NNE 57 24
2019.09.07. 18:00 Forecast 43.7 129.1 980 29 104 250
(NW 170)
Normal Small NE 60 48
2019.09.08. 00:00 Forecast 46.4 132.1 985 24 86 NE 63
xxxx

Yellow Warning of Typhoon

06-09-2019Source: National Meteorological Center

 

The National Meteorological Center continued to release yellow warning of typhoon at 6:00 a.m. on September 6.

This year’s 13th typhoon Lingling is predicted to move northward direction at the speed of 25 km/h and enter southern Huanghai Sea in the night of September 6. It will make landfall from western Republic of Korea to southeastern Liaoning from the night of September 7 to the dawn of September 8 (severe tropical storm, scale 10-11, 25-30m/s).

From September 6 to 7, sea areas around Diaoyu Islands, East China Sea, and central Huanghai Sea will be exposed to scale 8-11 gale. Coastal regions of Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Hangzhou Bay, Yangtze River Estuary, and coastal regions of Taiwan Island will be exposed to scale 6-7 gale.

Taiwan Island, northeastern Zhejiang, and eastern Shandong Peninsula will be subject to moderate to heavy rain. There is rainstorm (100-120mm) in some regions. (Sep. 6)

Editor: Liu Shuqiao

CMA launched level four emergency response to address the impacts of typhoon Lingling

06-09-2019Source: China Meteorological Administration
The National Meteorological Center continued to issue yellow warning of typhoon on September 6. In order to address impacts incurred by typhoon Lingling, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) activated a level four emergency response at 8:30 a.m. on September 6. It is required that the relevant meteorological sectors attached to CMA enter the emergency position immediately and put corresponding meteorological services in place. The potential affected areas such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Liaoning, and Heilongjiang are expected to sustain or adjust the emergency state according to local realities. (Sep.6)

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 Sep, 2019 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Typhoon LINGLING is currently located near 37.9 N 125.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). LINGLING is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. LINGLING is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    North Korea
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    South Korea
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Sariwon (38.5 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    P’yongyang (39.0 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kanggye (41.0 N, 126.6 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Sinuiju (40.1 N, 124.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Hamhung (39.9 N, 127.6 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Ch’ongjin (41.8 N, 129.8 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Vladivostok (43.1 N, 132.0 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Khabarovsk (48.4 N, 135.1 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

None

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP22 RJTD 070600
WARNING 070600.
WARNING VALID 080600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1913 LINGLING (1913) 970 HPA
AT 37.9N 125.3E KOREA MOVING NORTH 21 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 44.3N 128.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 48.7N 132.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

 

Taiwan>China: Tropical Storm BAILU 12W 21/1200Z 15.8° 130.7°, moving WNW 09kt 998hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Published 21 Aug 20191456Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm BAILU (1911, 12W)
(Ineng in PH)

Expected to become acategory 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by Aug, 12:00 UTC (TSR UCL data)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 10 FEET – JTWC

JMA logo

1911-00

TS 1911 (Bailu)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 21 August 2019

12 UTC, 21 August>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N15°50′ (15.8°)
E130°40′ (130.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 700 km (375 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N18°05′ (18.1°)
E128°25′ (128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N21°05′ (21.1°)
E124°55′ (124.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 190 km (100 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23°55′ (23.9°)
E120°25′ (120.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25°50′ (25.8°)
E116°40′ (116.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 480 km (260 NM)
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N27°30′ (27.5°)
E115°10′ (115.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 650 km (350 NM)

TAIWAN

2019/08/21 12:00, Tropical Storm BAILU (201911) , Center Location 15.70N 130.60E, Movement: NW 15KM/HR. Minimum Pressure 998 hpa, Maximum Wind Speed 18m/s, Gust 25m/s, Radius of 15m/s 100k

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 211200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS BAILU 1911 (1911) INITIAL TIME 211200 UTC
00HR 15.8N 130.8E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
250KM SOUTHEAST
280KM SOUTHWEST
200KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 15KM/H
P+12HR 16.4N 129.6E 990HPA 23M/S
P+24HR 17.6N 128.4E 985HPA 25M/S
P+36HR 19.4N 126.7E 982HPA 28M/S
P+48HR 20.7N 125.1E 980HPA 30M/S
P+60HR 22.1N 123.0E 975HPA 33M/S
P+72HR 23.4N 120.9E 982HPA 28M/S
P+96HR 25.1N 117.0E 998HPA 18M/S
P+120HR 26.5N 113.7E 1000HPA 15M/S=
NNNN

CHINA

NMA CHINA

Typhoon Message
20190821 20:19

National Meteorological Center No.632
Analysis Time: Aug. 21th 12 UTC
Name of TC: BAILU
Num. of TC: 1911
Current Location: 15.8°N 130.8°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 18m/s(64.8km/h)
Central Pressure: 998hPa
Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 300km SE 250km SW 280km NW 200km
Forecast movement: next 24hrs BAILU will moving WNW at speed of 13km/h

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Depression 12W (Bailu) Warning #01
Issued at 21/0900Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (BAILU) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200921ZAUG2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (BAILU) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
210600Z — NEAR 15.2N 131.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 131.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 16.0N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 16.9N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z — 18.3N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 19.7N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 22.7N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z — 25.1N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 27.3N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 131.6E.
21AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (BAILU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
716 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
210600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND
220900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 200930).//
NNNN

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 21 Aug, 2019 6:00 GMT

 

Tropical Depression BAILU is currently located near 15.2 N 131.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 25kts (29 mph). BAILU is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

DocR Bailu2

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 211200
WARNING 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1911 BAILU (1911) 998 HPA
AT 15.8N 130.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 18.1N 128.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 21.1N 124.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 23.9N 120.4E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 25.8N 116.7E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 27.5N 115.2E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWCI50 BABJ 211200
2:2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1530UTC AUG.21 2019=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC AUG.21=
FCST VALID 1200UTC AUG.22=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
TS BAILU 1911(1911) 998HPA AT 15.8N 130.8E
MVG WNW 15KMH AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 5.0M)
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
300KM NE
250KM SE
280KM SW
200KM NW
AND FCST FOR 221200UTC AT 17.6N 128.4E 985HPA
AND MAX WINDS 25M/S NEAR CENTER=SUMMARY=
SE WINDS FROM 07 TO 12M/S GUSTS 14M/S SEAS UP TO
2.0M OVER EASTERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 07 TO 12M/S GUSTS 14M/S SEAS UP TO
2.0M OVER BASHI CHANNEL AND SOUTHWESTERN
PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
CYCLONCI WINDS FROM 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 22M/S SEAS
UP TO 3.5M OVER SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
AND SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS=
SLY/SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS
UP TO 2.5M OVER SEA SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
AND SEA WEST OF GUAM=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER ANDAMAN
SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA AND MALACCA STRAIT
AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA STRAIT AND
MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT BANDA=
FCST=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA
SW WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT TO MOD
LIGHT RAIN BECMG RAINSTORM VIS MOD TO POOR=
KOREA STRAIT
SW WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD RAIN
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
CYCLONIC WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA
STATE MOD TO ROUGH MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA WEST OF NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
SW WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY
VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTHEAST OF INDONESIA
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAWA
E WINDS VEER SE 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY
VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=
ANDAMAN SEA
SW WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS
MOD=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Yaeyama Islands (Japan)/ Taiwan/ China: TYPHOON LEKIMA 10W 08/1300Z 24.4°N 124.9°E, moving NW 08kt. 925hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 08 Aug 2019 1530Z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON LEKIMA 10W 1909

LEKIMA is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. (TSR UCL London -1200 UTC today)

Yaeyama Islands/ (Japan)/Taiwan/ China

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 50 FEET (FIVE ZERO FEET) – JTWC

JMA logo

1909-00-3

 

 

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

 

TY 1909 (Lekima)
Issued at 13:45 UTC, 8 August 2019

<Analysis at 13 UTC, 8 August>
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N24°25′ (24.4°)
E124°55′ (124.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 560 km (300 NM)
<Estimate for 14 UTC, 8 August>
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N24°30′ (24.5°)
E124°50′ (124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 560 km (300 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 8 August>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N25°00′ (25.0°)
E124°00′ (124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 40 km (20 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 9 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N25°35′ (25.6°)
E123°10′ (123.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 9 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N26°10′ (26.2°)
E122°25′ (122.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 9 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N26°50′ (26.8°)
E121°50′ (121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)

TAIWAN

2019/08/08 12:00UTC Typhoon LEKIMA (201909) , Center Location 24.50N 124.90E, Movement: NW 18KM/HR. Minimum Pressure 915 hpa, Maximum Wind Speed 53m/s, Gust 65m/s, Radius of 15m/s 280km, Radius of 25m/s 100km

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Super Typhoon 10W (Lekima) Warning #18
Issued at 08/0900Z

 

 

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 019 //
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 24.4N 124.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 124.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 25.8N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
400 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 26.8N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 27.8N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 29.0N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 32.9N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 35.1N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 124.5E.
08AUG19. SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND
091500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Aug, 2019 6:00 GMT

Typhoon LEKIMA is currently located near 23.6 N 125.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 130 kts (150 mph). LEKIMA is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. LEKIMA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 48 hours
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 72 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Shanghai (31.2 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
    Hangzhou (30.3 N, 120.2 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
    Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    Taizhou (32.5 N, 119.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nanjing (32.0 N, 118.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
    Wuhu (31.5 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Xinpu (34.8 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
    Xiangshui (34.2 N, 119.6 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Huaiyin (33.5 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Weifang (36.8 N, 119.2 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 120 hours
    Haiyang (36.8 N, 121.2 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
    Qingdao (36.1 N, 120.4 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
    Kenli (37.7 N, 118.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    Weihai (37.4 N, 122.1 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    Linyi (35.2 N, 118.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US Scale) or above winds

 

Probability Scale
Chance of Happening Value Chance of Happening Value
Extremely Low 10% Medium-High 60%
Very Low 20% High 70%
Low 30% Very High 80%
Medium-Low 40% Extremely High 90%
Medium 50% Certain 100%

Note that all probabilities refer to the occurrence of 1-min sustained wind speeds.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP23 RJTD 081200
WARNING 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 925 HPA
AT 24.3N 124.9E EAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 25.6N 123.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 26.8N 121.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 28.6N 121.0E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 33.1N 120.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 35.0N 117.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 33.4N 117.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

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