Hainan/ China/ Macau/ Hong Kong: TYPHOON KHANUN 24W 151500Z nr 20.9N 110.7E, moving W 19kt (JTWC) – Updated 15 Oct 2017 1455z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON KHANUN (24W)

(=CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

⚠️ Hainan, Macau, Hong Kong, China & Vietnam beware!
Taiwan  Laos be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 22 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 24W (Khanun) Warning #14
Issued at 15/1500Z

wp24173

24w_150000sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 21.0N 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 111.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 20.8N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 20.0N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 18.9N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 17.6N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 16.4N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 110.7E.
TYPHOON 24W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

JMA logo

1720-002

TY 1720 (Khanun)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 15 October 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 15 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°40′ (20.7°)
E111°50′ (111.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 560 km (300 NM)
S 440 km (240 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 16 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°20′ (20.3°)
E109°40′ (109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 16 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N19°25′ (19.4°)
E108°20′ (108.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N16°55′ (16.9°)
E107°50′ (107.8°)
Direction and speed of movement S 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 October>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N15°20′ (15.3°)
E107°30′ (107.5°)
Direction and speed of movement S Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)

PAGASA-DOST

@dost_pagasa

Official Twitter Account of Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST)

Tropical Cyclone Advisory No. 1

For: Typhoon “Khanun” (1720) (formerly “Odette”)
Issued at: 11:00 AM, 15 October 2017

At 10:00 AM today

Location of center: 795 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon (20.1ºN, 114.4ºE) [OUTSIDE PAR]

Maximum Sustained Winds: 120 km/h near the center

Gustiness: up to 145 km/h

Forecast movement: West at 20 km/h

This tropical cyclone outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) has no direct effect on any part of the country. Furthermore, this weather system is expected to make landfall over Southern China in the next 24 hours.

The next update on this weather disturbance will be incorporated in the Public Weather Forecast to be issued at 4:00 PM today and at 4:00 AM tomorrow.

NOAA

 rb_lalo-animated16

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Oct, 2017 12:00 GMT

Typhoon KHANUN is currently located near 21.0 N 111.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). KHANUN is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KHANUN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Macau
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours
    Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Laos
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201724w3

201724w_03

MARITIME/SHIPPING

As of today, there is no Tropical Cyclone within Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

 JMA logo

WTJP21 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1720 KHANUN (1720) 950 HPA
AT 20.7N 111.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 20.3N 109.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 19.4N 108.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 16.9N 107.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 15.3N 107.5E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
17101521

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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Japan/ Russia: Tropical Storm Talim 20W 17/1500Z update from JTWC and others – Updated 17 Sep 2017 1547z (GMT/UTC)

 Tropical Storm Talim 20W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET – JTWC

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 20W (Talim) Warning #36
Issued at 17/1500Z

 

 

wp2017 TALIM JTWC 17

20W_171200sair TALIM 17

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
171200Z — NEAR 34.1N 134.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 050 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 134.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 39.5N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
390 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 29 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 44.8N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 35.5N 135.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

1718-00 TALIM JMA 17

JP WARNING

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

rb_lalo-animated3

STS 1718 (Talim)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 17 September 2017

<Analysis at 14 UTC, 17 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N35°20′ (35.3°)
E135°40′ (135.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 190 km (100 NM)
NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)
<Estimate for 15 UTC, 17 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N35°40′ (35.7°)
E136°05′ (136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 190 km (100 NM)
NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N40°40′ (40.7°)
E139°25′ (139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 60 km/h (33 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area NE 410 km (220 NM)
SW 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N45°50′ (45.8°)
E142°35′ (142.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 50 km/h (28 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area E 600 km (325 NM)
W 370 km (200 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Sep, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm TALIM is currently located near 34.1 N 134.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). TALIM is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk (47.0 N, 142.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201720W TALIM TSR1 17

201720W_0 TALIM TSR2 17

Russia

17.9.2017 16:00 | Day 18 September with saving until the end of the day in the Kaliningrad region, heavy rain is expected to wind up to 25 m/s.

17.9.2017 12:00 | On the night of September 18 in the Orenburg region expected freezing on soil (temperature to -2°).

16.9.2017 22:00 | Day 17 September and the first half of the night 18 September in the Irkutsk region precipitation (rain, wet snow), wind 18-23 m/s, storms, the establishment of a temporary snow cover.

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in the South Kuril and Kuril regions expected strong winds up to 35-40 m/s (hurricane), strong, sometimes very heavy rain (15-49 mm, 50 mm or more for 12:00).

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in southern Sakhalin and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk is expected to be very heavy rain (30 mm for 12:00), wind 25-30 m/s, gusts of 33-38 m/s (hurricane); 19 September in rivers podjomy water levels on the sharp 0.5 m -1.0.

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 and 19 September night in the East of Primorsky Krai expected places heavy rain (15-45 mm for 12:00 or less), wind 15-20 m/s, on the coast with gusts up to 28 m/s.

“In Monday, when Typhoon Talim will move along the western coast of Japan on water area of the sea of Japan, it will have an impact on the weather, the eastern half of the Primorski Krai. Rains of varying intensity, on the East coast of possible heavy rains and strong winds to the 20-25 m/s.

Ex-Talim will bring on Sakhalin and southern Kuril Islands rain and wind up to 15-20 m/s In the zone Tuesday spread to Northern Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. In Thursday afternoon in the southern area of the wind will die down, the Northern Islands will still windy.” – Russian National Forecaster (link)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

JP MARITIME 17

JP WX MAP 17

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1718 TALIM (1718) 975 HPA
AT 34.4N 134.6E SHIKOKU MOVING NORTHEAST 26 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 40.7N 139.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 45.8N 142.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/ Taiwan/ South China Sea: Tropical Cyclone MAWAR 010900Z position near 20.7N 118.2E, moving NNW 07 knots (JTWC) – Published 01 Sep 2017 1000z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Mawar

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 12 FEET – JTWC

wp201718_5day MAWAR WUND

(Image: @wunderground)

wp201718_sat MAWAR WUND

(Image: @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 18W (Mawar) Warning #03
Issued at 01/0900Z

wp1817 MAWAR JTWC

18W_010600sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
010600Z — NEAR 20.5N 118.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 118.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z — 21.1N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z — 21.8N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z — 22.4N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 23.2N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 25.4N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 28.2N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 118.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 010600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z
AND 020900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (SANVU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

jma-logo3

1716-00 JMA

TS 1716 (Mawar)
Issued at 07:00 UTC, 1 September 2017

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 1 September>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N20°10′ (20.2°)
E118°10′ (118.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 2 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N21°00′ (21.0°)
E117°30′ (117.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 3 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N22°05′ (22.1°)
E116°25′ (116.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 4 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N24°20′ (24.3°)
E114°00′ (114.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 1 Sep, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression MAWAR is currently located near 20.5 N 118.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). MAWAR is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201718W tsr1

(Image: TSR)

201718W_0 tsr2

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

seawarn mawar

17090115 mawar jma map

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600
WTJP22 RJTD 010600
WARNING 010600.
WARNING VALID 020600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1716 MAWAR (1716) 998 HPA
AT 20.2N 118.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 21.0N 117.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 22.1N 116.4E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 24.3N 114.0E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 0600

WWHK82 VHHH 010600
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) MAWAR (1716): NIL.
GALES OVER NE PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS).
SYNOPSIS (010600UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
AT 010600UTC, TD MAWAR (1716) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HPA
AND MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KT WAS CENTERED WITHIN 90 NM OF 20.3N
118.5E AND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 020600UTC: 21.3N, 117.7E
GALES OVER NE PART OF SCS LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER GALES LATER.
SWELL E TO NE 3 M OVER N AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE SCS.
SWELL SE 3 M OVER LUZON STRAIT.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) WITHIN 180 NM FROM CENTRE OF MAWAR.
SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN, CENTRAL PART
OF SCS.
ISOLATED SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS NEAR MALAYSIA, SEAS NEAR
SOUTHERN PART OF VIETNAM.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

=======================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines/ China/ Vietnam: Tropical Storm Pakhar 16W 260900Z position nr 18.7N 117.5E, moving WNW 16kt (JTWC) – Updated 26 Aug 2017 0930z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Pakhar 16W

#JolinaPh in Philippines

⚠️  Philippines and China beware! Vietnam be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 15 FEET – JTWC

wp201716_5day Pakhar wund

(Image: @wunderground)

wp201716_sat Pakhar wund

(Image: @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 16W (Pakhar) Warning #08
Issued at 26/0900Z

wp1617 Pakhar jtwc 26

16W_260600sams 26

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
260600Z — NEAR 18.3N 118.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 118.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 19.8N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 21.2N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 21.9N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 22.3N 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 22.7N 101.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 117.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 16W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z,
270300Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

=============================================================================

=============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 26 Aug, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PAKHAR is currently located near 18.3 N 118.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). PAKHAR is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201716W tsr1 26 p

(Image: TSR)

201716W_0 tsr2 26

(Image: TSR)

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

17082615 jma map26

(Image: JMA)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 260600

WTJP22 RJTD 260600
WARNING 260600.
WARNING VALID 270600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1714 PAKHAR (1714) 994 HPA
AT 18.0N 118.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 20.0N 114.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 21.4N 112.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 23.0N 106.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 22.8N 102.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China: Severe Tropical Storm Hato 15W 23/1200Z nr 22.7N 115.3E, moving WNW 30 km/h (16 kt) (JMA) – Updated 23 Aug 2017 1332z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Hato 15W downgraded to Severe Tropical Storm by JMA

 

JAPAN MET

1713-00 jma 23

STS 1713 (Hato)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 23 August 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 23 August>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N22°40′ (22.7°)
E111°00′ (111.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 330 km (180 NM)
N 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 24 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23°20′ (23.3°)
E107°55′ (107.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 24 August>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N23°40′ (23.7°)
E104°30′ (104.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

CMA CHINA typhoon_logo_v2.0
Typhoon Message
20170823 20:26

National Meteorological Center No.680
Analysis Time: Aug. 23th 12 UTC
Name of TC: HATO
Num. of TC: 1713
Current Location: 22.7°N 110.9°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 25m/s(90km/h)
Central Pressure: 985hPa
Forecast movement: next 24hrs HATO will moving WNW at speed of 28km/h
Currently on land
Red Warning of Typhoon

23-08-2017Source:National Meteorological Center

The National Meteorological Center issued red warning of typhoon at 6:00 p.m. on August 23.

At 5:00 p.m. today, Typhoon Hato, this year’s 13th typhoon, centered northern parts of the South China Sea (21.3N, 115.2E), about 200 kilometers away from southeastern Zhuhai city, Guangdong province. The maximum wind near the typhoon center hit scale 13 (40m/s).

It is forecasted to move toward northwest at a speed of 25 kilometers per hour with a strengthening force. At noon today, it is predicted to make landfall in Guangdong coast ranging from Zhuhai City to Yangjiang City (40~48 m/s, scale 13~15, typhoon level or severe typhoon level). After that Hato will continue to march toward west with a shrinking strength and slip into Guangxi on the evening of August 23 (30~33 m/s, scale 11~12, severe tropical storm or typhoon level).

Gale forecast: From August 23 to 24, in portions of Taiwan Strait, northern parts of the South China Sea, Qiongzhou Strait, Beibu Gulf, Guangdong coast, southern Fujian coast, eastern and northern Hainan coast, Guangxi coast, southern Guangdong coast, and eastern Guangxi, scale 7~9 gale is forecasted. Pearl River Estuary will be battered by scale 11~13 gale. Furthermore, the sea or land areas on the way of the typhoon center are expected to be hammered by scale 14~15 gale or scale 16~17 gust.

Precipitation forecast: From August 23 to 24, in some certain locations of most of Guangxi, western and southern Guangdong, northern Hainan Island, southern Fujian coast, and western Taiwan, heavy rain or rainstorm is forecasted. Furthermore, portions of southeastern Guangxi, southwestern Guangdong, and northeastern Hainan Island will be exposed to heavy rainstorm or extraordinary rainstorm (250~350 mm). (August 23)

Editor Wu Peng

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 23 Aug, 2017 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Typhoon HATO is currently located near 22.2 N 112.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). HATO is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. HATO is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Macau
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201715W tsr1 23

(Image: TSR)

201715W_0 tsr2 23

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11/ TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 231200

WTJP21 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1713 HATO (1713) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 985
HPA
AT 22.7N 111.0E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 23.3N 107.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 23.7N 104.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/ Taiwan: Tropical Storm Haitang 302100Z position nr 24.8N 119.7E, moving NNW 13kt (JTWC) – Updated 30 Jul 2017 2120z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Haitang 12W

(Huaning in Philippines – Use hashtag )

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET – JTWC

wp201712_5day Tropical Storm Haitang WUND 30

(Image: @wunderground)

wp201712_sat_anim Tropical Storm Haitang WUND 30

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 12W (Haitang) Warning #11
Issued at 30/2100Z

 

wp1217 Haitang JTWC 30

 

 

 

WTPN32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301800Z — NEAR 24.2N 120.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 345 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 120.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 26.5N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z — 28.5N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 119.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 94 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z,
310900Z AND 311500Z. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 07W (NORU)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1710-00 JMA 00 Haitang

Himawari 8 near real time (link)

TS 1710 (Haitang)
Issued at 19:10 UTC, 30 July 2017

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 30 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N24°40′ (24.7°)
E120°20′ (120.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 440 km (240 NM)
N 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N28°10′ (28.2°)
E117°55′ (117.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N29°05′ (29.1°)
E116°10′ (116.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Jul, 2017 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HAITANG is currently located near 24.2 N 120.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). HAITANG is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    China
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201712W Haitang TSR1 30

(Image: TSR)

201712W_0 Haitang TSR2 30

(Image: TSR)

Other

MARITIME/SHIPPING

seawarn 30

JMA map 30

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 301800

WTJP22 RJTD 301800
WARNING 301800.
WARNING VALID 311800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1710 HAITANG (1710) 990 HPA
AT 24.7N 120.3E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTH 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 28.2N 117.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 29.1N 116.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Taiwan/ Japan/ China: Typhoon Nesat 11W 290900Z 23.9°N 122.4°E, moving NNW 20 km/h (11 kt) (JMA)- Updated 29 Jul 2017 1130z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Nesat 11W

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

⚠️ Taiwan, Ishigaki Island, Ryukyu Islands (Japan) and China BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z  IS 32 FEET- JTWC

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

Himawari 8 near real time (link)

TY 1709 (Nesat)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 29 July 2017

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 29 July>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N23°55′ (23.9°)
E122°25′ (122.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 390 km (210 NM)
N 280 km (150 NM)
<Estimate for 10 UTC, 29 July>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N24°05′ (24.1°)
E122°20′ (122.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 390 km (210 NM)
N 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 29 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N24°50′ (24.8°)
E119°30′ (119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (35 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 140 km (75 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 30 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25°05′ (25.1°)
E118°10′ (118.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 100 km (55 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27°35′ (27.6°)
E118°20′ (118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 1 August>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N29°30′ (29.5°)
E117°35′ (117.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 11W (Nesat) Warning #14
Issued at 29/0900Z

 

 

WTPN34 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (NESAT) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
290600Z — NEAR 23.3N 122.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 122.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 24.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 25.0N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 25.6N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 27.2N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 31.4N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 122.2E.
TYPHOON 11W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (TWELVE)WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Jul, 2017 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NESAT is currently located near 23.3 N 122.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). NESAT is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NESAT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

(Image: JMA)

 

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 290900

WTJP34 RJTD 290900
WARNING 290900.
WARNING VALID 300900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1709 NESAT (1709) 960 HPA
AT 23.9N 122.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 24.8N 119.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 25.1N 118.2E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/ Hong Kong/ Macau: Tropical Depression ROKE 10W 222100Z position nr 22.1N 115.7E, moving WNW 12 knots (JTWC) – Published 22 Jul 2017 1930z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression ROKE 10W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 12 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 10W (Roke) Warning #05
Issued at 22/2100Z

 

 

WTPN34 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (ROKE) WARNING NR 005
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10W
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
221800Z — NEAR 21.9N 116.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 116.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 22.7N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z — 23.5N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 115.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM EAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 Jul, 2017 18:00 GMT

Tropical Depression ROKE is currently located near 21.9 N 116.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). ROKE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800
WARNING 221800.
WARNING VALID 231800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1707 ROKE (1707) 1002 HPA
AT 21.7N 117.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 22.8N 115.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 23.9N 112.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Vietnam/ Laos/ China: Severe Tropical Storm TALAS 06W 161200Z nr 18.5N 107.2E, moving WNW 12kt (JMA) – Published 16 Jul 2017 1410z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm TALAS 06W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 14 FEET (JTWC)

STS 1704 (Talas)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 16 July 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 16 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N18°30′ (18.5°)
E107°10′ (107.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 440 km (240 NM)
NW 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 17 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N18°40′ (18.7°)
E104°20′ (104.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N19°25′ (19.4°)
E100°55′ (100.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

 

hko_logo

Tropical Storm TALAS
at 17:00 HKT 16 July 2017

Position: 18.4 N, 107.8 E (about 790 km west-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 85 km/h
Talas will move across Beibu Wan today, and then move into the inland areas of Indo-China and dissipate gradually.

Tropical Cyclone Track at 17:00 HKT 16 July 2017

Tropical Cyclone Track at 17:00 HKT 16 July 2017

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
17:00 HKT 17 July 2017 19.3 N 101.6 E Tropical Depression 45 km/h
17:00 HKT 18 July 2017 20.5 N 96.7 E Low Pressure Area 25 km/h

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The tropical cyclone symbol in different colours are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure).
  • While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm. The yellow shaded area on the map indicates the probable area within which the tropical cyclone will fall with a probability of 70% (‘Potential Track Area’). Literally, it means that in 10 times of track forecast for similar situations, the tropical cyclone will be centred within the indicated area in about 7 times. The area grows as the forecast hour increases. It will be particularly larger beyond 72 hours and is indicated with lighter shadings on the map. The size in terms of radius of the ‘Potential Track Area’ corresponding to different forecast hours are determined from the error statistics of the forecasts issued in past years and are as shown in the following table:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 125 km
    48-hour forecast position 225 km
    72-hour forecast position 325 km
    96-hour forecast position 400 km
    120-hour forecast position 500 km
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are based on Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warning for shipping issued eight times a day at 0:30, 3:30, 6:30, 9:30, 12:30, 15:30, 18:30 and 21:30 HKT, about one and a half hours after the time of observation. The analysed positions incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based provisional positions given in the hourly bulletins for public. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 06W (Talas) Warning #04
Issued at 16/0900Z

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (TALAS) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 18.1N 108.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 108.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 18.6N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 19.2N 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 20.0N 100.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 107.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM NORTH OF
DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 16 Jul, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm TALAS is currently located near 18.5 N 107.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). TALAS is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Laos
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    China
        probability for TS is 65% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Thailand
        probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 161200
WARNING 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1704 TALAS (1704) 990 HPA
AT 18.5N 107.2E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 18.7N 104.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 19.4N 100.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

hko_logo

Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

Tropical Cyclone Warning |  Track and Positions of Tropical Cyclones
Current Weather |  Local Weather Forecast |  9-day Weather Forecast
South China Coastal Waters |  Marine Forecast
Severe Weather Information Centre

Tropical Cyclone Warning |  Track and Positions of Tropical Cyclones
Current Weather |  Local Weather Forecast |  9-day Weather Forecast
South China Coastal Waters |  Marine Forecast
Severe Weather Information Centre

Bulletin issued at 18:30 HKT 16/Jul/2017

Tropical Cyclone WarningAt 160900 UTC, Tropical Storm Talas (1704) with central pressure 988 hectopascals was centred within 60 nautical miles of one eight point four degrees north (18.4 N) one zero seven point eight degrees east (107.8 E) and is forecast to move west or west-northwest at about 14 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 45 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 45 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 240 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 170900 UTC
One nine point three degrees north (19.3 N)
One zero one point six degrees east (101.6 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 180900 UTC
Dissipated over land.


The Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warnings for shipping are issued about one and a half hours after the time of observation. They incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions given in the hourly bulletins for public.

While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm.
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ West Pacific: Severe Tropical Storm Nanmadol (1703, 05W) 04/1000Z nr 34.1N 137.1E, moving E 65 km/h (36 kt) (JMA) – Updated 04 Jul 2017 1130z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Nanmadol (1703, 05W)

JAPAN beware!

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

 

 

STS 1703 (Nanmadol)
Issued at 10:45 UTC, 4 July 2017

<Analysis at 10 UTC, 4 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N34°05′ (34.1°)
E137°05′ (137.1°)
Direction and speed of movement E 65 km/h (36 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 220 km (120 NM)
N 110 km (60 NM)
<Estimate for 11 UTC, 4 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N34°10′ (34.2°)
E137°50′ (137.8°)
Direction and speed of movement E 65 km/h (36 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 220 km (120 NM)
N 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°40′ (35.7°)
E144°00′ (144.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 5 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N37°20′ (37.3°)
E151°35′ (151.6°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 6 July>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44°30′ (44.5°)
E171°10′ (171.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 85 km/h (45 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)

===============================================================

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 05W (Nanmadol) Warning #10
Issued at 04/0900Z

 

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 04/0900Z

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
040600Z — NEAR 33.6N 134.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 075 DEGREES AT 34 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.6N 134.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 35.3N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 33 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 36.9N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 34.0N 136.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 34
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
NNNN

Tropical Storm Risk

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 4 Jul, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NANMADOL is currently located near 33.6 N 134.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). NANMADOL is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 65% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

News Report

 

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 040600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 41N 142E
46N 150E 53N 160E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 30N 160E 30N 140E 35N
140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 994 HPA AT 57N 154E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 994 HPA AT 51N 164E NORTH 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 17N 133E NW 15 KT.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 43N 148E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 26N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 122E TO 36N 124E 37N 131E 39N 140E 37N 146E
37N 151E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1703 NANMADOL (1703) 992 HPA AT 33.6N 134.2E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 040900

WTJP31 RJTD 040900
WARNING 040900.
WARNING VALID 050900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1703 NANMADOL (1703) 992 HPA
AT 34.1N 136.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 36 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 35.7N 144.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 37.3N 151.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South China Sea: Tropical Storm Merbok (1702, 04W) 11/1500Z nr 18.8N 116.0E, moving NNW 13kt (JMA) – Published 11 Jun 2017 1900z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Merbok (1702, 04W)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

TS 1702 (Merbok)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 11 June 2017
<Analysis at 15 UTC, 11 June>
Scale

Intensity

Center position
N18°50′ (18.8°)

E116°00′ (116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement
NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure
1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area
ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 12 June>
Intensity

Center position of probability circle
N20°40′ (20.7°)

E115°10′ (115.2°)
Direction and speed of movement
NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure
1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle
70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 15 UTC, 12 June>
Intensity

Center position of probability circle
N22°25′ (22.4°)

E114°50′ (114.8°)
Direction and speed of movement
N 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure
998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle
90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 13 June>
Intensity

TD
Center position of probability circle
N25°10′ (25.2°)

E118°20′ (118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement
NE 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure
1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle
280 km (150 NM)

=================================================================================

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 04W (Merbok) Warning #03
Issued at 11/1500Z

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
111200Z — NEAR 18.2N 116.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 345 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 116.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 20.2N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 22.0N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 23.6N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 25.1N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 17 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z — 26.9N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 27.9N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 16 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 29.7N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 116.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 04W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN

================================================================================

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 11 Jun, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MERBOK is currently located near 18.2 N 116.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). MERBOK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

(Image: DoctorAdvice4u.com )

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 


METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 111200
WARNING 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1702 MERBOK (1702) 1002 HPA
AT 18.1N 116.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 20.2N 115.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 22.1N 115.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 25.2N 118.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/Taiwan: Severe Tropical Storm Nepartak (1601, 02W) 082100Z POSITION near 23.7N 119.5E, moving N 01 Knot (JTWC) – Updated 08 Jul 2016 2040Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm  Nepartak/ Butchoy in PH (1601, 02W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 18 FEET

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground Satellite

Image: @wunderground Satellite

 Japan Meteorological agency

1601-00 8

 

1601-00 enlarged.png 8

STS 1601 (Nepartak)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 8 July 2016

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 8 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N23°40′ (23.7°)
E119°25′ (119.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 330 km (180 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 9 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25°30′ (25.5°)
E117°20′ (117.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 10 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N28°10′ (28.2°)
E117°30′ (117.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 02W (Nepartak) Warning #24
Issued at 08/2100Z

wp0216 8a

WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 024
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 23.4N 119.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 119.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 24.4N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 25.3N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 26.2N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 27.3N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 119.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at  6 Jul, 2016 6:00 GMT

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jul, 2016 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NEPARTAK is currently located near 23.4 N 119.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). NEPARTAK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Image: TSR

Image: TSR

 

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 081800

WTJP21 RJTD 081800
WARNING 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1601 NEPARTAK (1601) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON
980 HPA
AT 23.7N 119.4E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 25.5N 117.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 28.2N 117.5E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

END

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/ South China Sea: Typhoon Mujigae 22W 03/1200Z 19.5N 113.4E, moving WNW 11 knots (JMA) – Published 03 Oct 2015 1500z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Mujigae 22W

(=CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1522
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TY 1522 (MUJIGAE)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 3 October 2015

<Analyses at 03/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N19°30′(19.5°)
E113°25′(113.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°35′(20.6°)
E111°35′(111.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N21°40′(21.7°)
E109°40′(109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23°30′(23.5°)
E108°20′(108.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 06/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N25°10′(25.2°)
E108°00′(108.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

HKO_banner_eng

tctrack_1519_en

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

(Updated at 20:45 on 3 Oct HKT)

In the past few hours, outer rainbands of Majigae brought heavy squally showers to Hong Kong. Winds occasionally reached gale force in the offshore areas and on high ground. Heavy squally showers are expected to continue to affect Hong Kong in the next few hours.

According to the present forecast track, Mujigae will be closest to Hong Kong from midnight to early tomorrow morning. Mujigae is expected to skirt around 300 kilometres southwest of Hong Kong.

Unless Mujigae adopts a more northerly track or intensifies significantly, the chance of issuing the Gale or Storm Signal No. 8 is not high. However, winds will occasionally reach gale force over the southwestern part of Hong Kong. The Observatory will closely monitor the evolution of Mujigae.

Rainstorm Warning Bulletin

Updated at 21:45

Amber Rainstorm Warning Signal Special Announcement issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 9:45 p.m.

The Rainstorm Warning Signal is now Amber. This means that heavy rain has fallen or is expected to fall generally over Hong Kong, exceeding 30 millimetres in an hour, and is likely to continue.

There will be flooding in some low-lying and poorly drained areas. People who are likely to be affected should take necessary precautions to reduce their exposure to risk posed by the heavy rain and flooding.

Heavy rain may bring about flash floods. People should stay away from watercourses. People who are likely to be affected by flooding should take necessary precautions to avoid losses.

Please listen to radio or watch television for traffic conditions and further announcements on the rainstorm.

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Oct, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon MUJIGAE (22W) currently located near 19.5 N 113.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

HKO – Hong Kong

Bulletin issued at 21:30 HKT 03/Oct/2015

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 031200 UTC, Typhoon Mujigae (1522) with central pressure 965 hectopascals was centred within 30 nautical miles of one nine point five degrees north (19.5 N) one one three point four degrees east (113.4 E) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 10 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 70 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 120 nautical miles.
Radius of over 47 knot winds 60 nautical miles.
Radius of over 63 knot winds 30 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 270 nautical miles over northern semicircle, 240 nautical miles elsewhere.

Forecast position and intensity at 041200 UTC
Two one point five degrees north (21.5 N)
One zero nine point nine degrees east (109.9 E)
Maximum winds 65 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 051200 UTC
Two three point eight degrees north (23.8 N)
One zero eight point four degrees east (108.4 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 061200 UTC
Dissipated over land.

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200
WTJP21 RJTD 031200
WARNING 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1522 MUJIGAE (1522) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970
HPA
AT 19.5N 113.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 20.6N 111.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 21.7N 109.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 23.5N 108.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 25.2N 108.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/ Japan/ Taiwan/ China: Typhoon Dujuan (21W) 25/2100Z near 20.5N 130.7E, moving NNW 7 knots (JTWC) – Updated 25 Sept 2015 2053z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Dujuan (21W)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Ishigakijima, Okinawa, Japan, Taiwan and China beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 25 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1521-00 25

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

TY 1521 (DUJUAN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 25 September 2015

<Analyses at 25/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N19°55′(19.9°)
E131°20′(131.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°05′(22.1°)
E129°05′(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°20′(23.3°)
E126°35′(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°00′(25.0°)
E122°50′(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 21W (Dujuan) Warning #17
Issued at 25/2100Z

wp2115 25

21W_250532sams

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251800Z — NEAR 20.2N 131.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 131.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 21.3N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 22.0N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 22.5N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 23.1N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z — 24.6N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 26.1N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 27.6N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 130.7E.
TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 417 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND
262100Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

Other Reports

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 25 Sep, 2015 18:00 GMT

Typhoon DUJUAN (21W) currently located near 20.2 N 131.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201521W 25A

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

15092603

WWJP25 RJTD 251800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 142E 42N 140E
44N 145E 51N 157E 60N 163E 60N 180E 38N 180E 40N 160E 40N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 39N 137E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 34N 146E EAST 20 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 52N 167E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 994 HPA AT 44N 170E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 14N 147E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 48N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 26N 162E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 132E TO 32N 135E 33N 141E 34N 146E 34N 150E
31N 153E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1521 DUJUAN (1521) 970 HPA AT 20.1N 131.0E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0900

WTJP21 RJTD 251800
WARNING 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1521 DUJUAN (1521) 970 HPA
AT 20.1N 131.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 22.1N 128.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 23.2N 125.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 24.6N 121.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Kyushu/ Japan/ South Korea: Typhoon Goni (16W) 24/1500Z 30.5N 129.5E, moving NNE at 20 knots (JMA) – Updated 24 Aug 2015 1725Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Goni / Ineng 16W

( = CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 40 FEET- JTWC

Okinawa, Kyushu, JAPAN BEWARE!!

 Taiwan, South Korea, North Korea, Russia & China be aware!

Landfall over Kyushu is expected close to midnight tonight UK time (2300 GMT/UTC)

– UK Met Office

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1515-00 24 1600z
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15082421

CLICK IMAGE FOR LATEST WARNINGS

CLICK IMAGE FOR LATEST WARNINGS

TY 1515 (GONI)
Issued at 16:45 UTC, 24 August 2015

<Analyses at 24/16 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N30°50′(30.8°)
E129°35′(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE170km(90NM)
NW90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL460km(250NM)
<Estimate for 24/17 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N31°05′(31.1°)
E129°50′(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE170km(90NM)
NW90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL460km(250NM)
<Forecast for 24/21 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N32°25′(32.4°)
E130°20′(130.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area SE200km(110NM)
NW140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 25/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N34°35′(34.6°)
E131°00′(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area SE220km(120NM)
NW170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 25/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N35°50′(35.8°)
E131°25′(131.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area SE240km(130NM)
NW190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 25/15 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N36°55′(36.9°)
E131°35′(131.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area SE240km(130NM)
NW200km(110NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 16W (Goni) Warning #43
Issued at 24/1500Z

wp1615 24

wp16152409

16W_241132sair

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 043
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
241200Z — NEAR 29.6N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 035 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.6N 128.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 33.1N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 36.2N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 38.9N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 16 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 42.0N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 30.5N 129.2E.
TYPHOON 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 40
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Prognostic Reasoning

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Aug, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon GONI (16W) currently located near 29.6 N 128.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201516W 24

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

Typhoon Goni set for landfall over Japan – UK Met Office

24 August 2015 – The very active typhoon season in the Pacific Ocean has continued with intense typhoons Goni and Atsani tracking across the ocean during the last week

Whilst Atsani has stayed out at sea, Goni moved very close to the northern tip of the Philippines before making a sharp turn northwards. The typhoon then passed close to Taiwan before starting to move across the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. On Sunday the eye of Typhoon Goni passed over the island of Ishigaki with wind gusts of over 150 mph being recorded.

Goni is still a powerful typhoon as it accelerates north-eastwards towards south-western parts of mainland Japan. Landfall over Kyushu is expected close to midnight tonight UK time (2300 GMT/UTC) . Wind speeds in excess of 100 mph and heavy rain is expected bringing the risk of structural damage, damaging waves, flooding and landslides.

Typhoons Goni and Atsani on 20 August 2015. Image courtesy of The National Institute of Informatics

Typhoons Goni and Atsani on 20 August 2015. Image courtesy of The National Institute of Informatics 

The latest typhoons are part of an extremely active season for tropical cyclones across the whole Pacific Ocean brought about by the developing strong El Niño. In total there have been 28 tropical storms across the northern Pacific this year which includes 18 typhoons or hurricanes (different names for the same features in the west and east Pacific). 13 of the typhoons or hurricanes have been strong enough to be classified as ‘major’ on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Meanwhile the Atlantic has been relatively quiet with just four tropical cyclones so far this season. However, in the last few days Danny became the first hurricane of the season and, despite being downgraded to a tropical storm, is bringing windy and wet conditions to the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean.

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific are produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via on Twitter.

Last updated: 24 August 2015

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 241500

WTJP31 RJTD 241500
WARNING 241500.
WARNING VALID 251500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1515 GONI (1515) 940 HPA
AT 30.5N 129.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 34.6N 131.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 36.9N 131.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY..=

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA XI

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China: 50 Killed, 700+ injured in massive Tianjin explosions. 12 of the dead were firefighters (videos) – Published 13 Aug 2015 1250z (GMT/UTC)

50 people killed and more than 700 were hospitalized, 71 of them for serious injuries. Contact lost with 36 firefighters, 12 of the 44 killed were firefighters – BBC latest.

Update 3:

As Chinese rescue workers and emergency services raced to respond to the deadly explosions that rocked the port city of Tianjin Wednesday, another group of Chinese officials, with a very different purpose also sprang into action: the country’s censors and security officials intent on limiting coverage of the disaster by conventional media outlets and social media. Authorities in Tianjin have been attempting to tightly control information about the disaster. Journalists and nonessential personnel were being kept six miles away from the scene of the blasts, the Los Angeles Times reported. In addition, a CNN correspondent reporting live from outside a hospital was seen being accosted by security officials live on air. In the video below [the confrontation starts around 1:48] reporter Will Ripley is confronted by several men, demanding that he end his broadcast, and shouting “stop recording” in Chinese. His feed is then cut, and the studio anchor comments that such incidents have “happened many times over the years in any number of stories in China.” In addition, local Chinese outlets reportedly had trouble being able to report on the incident. One journalist who took photographs inside a Tianjin hospital was threatened by security guards and told to delete the images, the Hong Kong Free Press reported. Local station Tianjin Television was reportedly airing a Korean soap opera 8 hours after the incident, as reporters waited for permission to start covering the story. Media censorship of this kind is not new in China, particularly when it comes to coverage of national disasters. After a 2011 train crash that left 39 people dead and over 200 injured, propaganda directives issued by Chinese authorities leaked online, which showed that reporters were warned not to run investigative reports or commentary, but rather focus on “stories that are extremely moving, for example people donating blood and taxi drivers not accepting fares,” the BBC reported. “From now on, the Wenzhou train accident should be reported along the theme of ‘major love in the face of major disaster’,” the directives added. The strategy ultimately backfired, prompting online anger from citizens who accused the authorities of “arrogance.” In the world of social media, users of Sina Weibo, China’s hugely popular version of Twitter, were reporting Thursday that some of their posts about the Tianjin disaster were being censored or deleted, according to the Associated Press. In addition, the number of searchable posts on the disaster fluctuated, in a sign that authorities were manipulating or placing limits on the number of posts.

Thursday, 13 August, 2015 at 07:56 UTC RSOE

Update 2:

A series of huge explosions shook the northern Chinese city of Tianjin late Wednesday, killing at least 44 people and injuring hundreds more, according to officials and state media. The cause was not immediately clear. Liu Yue, a 25-year-old Tianjin resident, said she felt the first blast but didn’t think too much of it. “The second explosion was so powerful that I felt the entire 16-floor-building was shaking,” said Liu, who lives about 4 kilometers (21 miles) from the site of the blasts. “I thought it was an earthquake! I was extremely scared. I was afraid my family was in danger.” The initial explosion erupted at a warehouse for a logistics company in an industrial area of the port city, according to Tianjin police. The company was identified as Tianjin Dongjiang Port Rui Hai International Logistics Co. Ltd. The state-run news agency Xinhua reported that an explosion tore through a warehouse storing “dangerous and chemical goods” in Binhai, an area of the city by the water. The firefighting division of the Chinese Public Security Ministry said firefighters were first called to the scene about a fire. An explosion went off after they arrived, it said. As smoke continued to billow into the sky from the site Thursday, local authorities suspended firefighting efforts at the scene because of a lack of information on the “dangerous goods” that were stored at the warehouse, Xinhua reported. Xinhua reported Thursday that 12 firefighters were among the dead and that dozens more remained unaccounted for in the aftermath of the blasts. Video from late Wednesday showed a blinding blast of light and smoke that sent fireballs shooting across the night sky. That was followed by an even bigger explosion, the force of which appeared to knock over the video camera. The shock waves were felt kilometers away, Xinhua reported, and some residents said windows and fish tanks had been shattered. The state-run China Earthquake Networks Center said in an official post on social media that two of the explosions had carried the force of small earthquakes. The first was measured at magnitude of 2.3, the second at 2.9, it said. As day broke Thursday, the extent of the damage was beginning to become clear. State media carried images of damaged buildings and parking lots full of rows of burned-out cars. Xinhua said that 44 people were killed and more than 500 were hospitalized, 66 of them for critical injuries. It had reported earlier that most of the injuries were from stones or broken glass.

Thursday, 13 August, 2015 at 07:07 UTC RSOE

Update 1:

Two massive explosions caused by flammable goods ripped through an industrial area in the northeast Chinese port city of Tianjin late on Wednesday, killing 17 people and injuring as many as 400, official Chinese media reported. Authorities had lost contact with 36 firefighters on the scene, the official Beijing News newspaper reported, citing the Tianjin fire department. The force of the explosions unnerved residents across much of the city of 15 million people, with some posting videos on the Internet that showed giant fireballs shooting into the sky and shock waves buffeting apartment blocks and cars. Fires were still burning after dawn, with photographs on Chinese news websites showing what appeared to be several destroyed buildings as well as torched cars at a multi-storey car park inside a logistics base at Tianjin Port. The port, one of the busiest in China, was operating normally, a port official said. President Xi Jinping demanded that authorities quickly extinguish the fires and “make full effort to rescue and treat the injured and ensure the safety of people and their property”, China Central Television (CCTV) said on its official microblog. CCTV said the blasts erupted in a shipment of explosives at around 11:30 p.m. local time (1530 GMT), triggering a shockwave that was felt kilometres (miles) away. The second blast came roughly 30 seconds after the first, state media said. Video posted on YouTube from what appeared to be an apartment building some distance from the scene showed fire shooting into the night sky from the initial blast when the second, much bigger, explosion rocked the area, sending a huge fireball into the air. Seconds later, shockwaves hit the apartment building. “Our building is shaking. Is this an atomic bomb?” said a frenzied voice inside. In other amateur video which appears to be shot closer to the scene, people scream from inside a car as the shockwave hits from the second blast, rocking their vehicle. The official People’s Daily newspaper said the death toll was 17 while other state media said six firefighters were among the dead. The official Xinhua news agency gave varying estimates of between 300 and 400 injured, with 32 critically hurt. Xinhua said the explosions ripped through a warehouse storing “dangerous goods”. The first explosion was equivalent to 3 tonnes of TNT and the second blast 21 tonnes of TNT, it said. It identified the owner of the warehouse as Tianjin Dongjiang Port Ruihai International Logistics. The company’s website said it was a government-approved firm specialising in handling “dangerous goods”. Company officials could not immediately be reached for comment. anadian teacher Monica Andrews told the BBC that she awoke in panic after what she thought was an earthquake. “I … looked out the window and the sky was red … I just watched a second explosion go off and (it was) just pure chaos, everyone leaving their apartment buildings thinking it’s an earthquake, cars trying to leave the complex and … it was crazy the amount of light that this explosion and fire lit up,” she said. Pictures posted on Chinese media websites also showed residents and workers, some bleeding, fleeing from near the scene. Citing a local hospital, Xinhua said people had been hurt by broken glass and stones. CCTV said on its website about 100 fire trucks had been sent to the scene. Several fire trucks had been destroyed and nearby firefighters wept as they worked to extinguish flames, the Beijing News said. Tianjin is home to around 15 million people, making it one of the biggest cities in China. Industrial accidents are not uncommon in China following three decades of breakneck economic growth. A blast at an auto parts factory in eastern China killed 75 people a year ago when a room filled with metal dust exploded.

Thursday, 13 August, 2015 at 04:27 UTC RSOE

Initial Report:

Massive, deadly explosions have erupted in the major Chinese port city of Tianjin, sending a fireball and mushroom cloud into the night sky and causing at least 17 deaths and hundreds of injuries. The explosions ripped through a warehouse storing hazardous goods near the port’s container terminal at around 11.30pm local time on Wednesday. The two biggest blasts occurred within 30 seconds of each other and caused extensive damage in the surrounding area, blowing out the glass on nearby high-rise buildings. The force of the blasts were felt kilometres away and registered on earthquake scales. Eyewitness videos, apparently taken from nearby apartments overlooking the area, quickly circulated on Chinese social media, some capturing a major blast, which sent a mushroom cloud tens of metres into the sky. Hundreds of injured people crowded into nearby hospitals, many arriving on foot, car and taxi overwhelming emergency services. Of the more than 400 report injured, at least 32 remained in a critical condition on Thursday morning. In one video of the explosion on Weibo, people can be heard reacting with shock and fear in Mandarin. “What about the people in that area?” one person can be heard saying as they watch the fire, before a major explosion occurs. Another voice can be heard saying “I’m scared to death”, before a woman exclaims “I can’t open the door”. Another video being circulated, purporting to be security camera footage from near the blast, shows a man standing inside a building in front of glass doors, before an explosion blows the doors and walls inwards, knocking the man to the ground. The city’s fire department first received reports at 10:50 pm about a fire at the warehouse, used by Ruihai International Logistics, a company that handles hazardous materials. Two firefighters were reported missing after the explosions, while another four were injured, it said. The precise nature of the materials that exploded was not made clear, and there was no indication whether the blast was accidental or intentional. The strength of the explosions also shattered windows of nearby buildings, and eyewitnesses reported feeling the blasts from kilometres away. The blasts were so massive they were reportedly visible from space, captured by the Japanese weather satellite Himawari 8.

Thursday, 13 August, 2015 at 03:04 (03:04 AM) UTC RSOE

Other Reports:

BBC

China explosion: Tianjin death toll rises in port blasts

Media caption Drone footage showed the devastation caused by the explosions

At least 44 people are known to have died, and more than 500 injured, following two major explosions in China’s northern port city of Tianjin.

Twelve firefighters are among those who lost their lives; 36 are still missing.

The blasts happened in a warehouse for hazardous chemicals and caused a huge fireball that could be seen from space.

Hospitals have been overwhelmed with people seeking treatment for injuries caused by flying glass and debris. Some 66 people are in a serious condition.

President Xi Jinping has promised a thorough investigation into what happened and “transparent information disclosure to the public,” Xinhua news agency reports.

The first explosion occurred at about 23:30 local time (15:30 GMT) on Wednesday in the city’s Binhai New Area, a vast industrial zone which houses car factories, aircraft assembly lines and other manufacturing and research firms.

The blast was followed seconds later by another, more powerful blast, and a series of smaller explosions.

Buildings within a 2km radius (1.5 miles) had windows blown out, office blocks were destroyed and hundreds of cars burnt-out.

The impact of the blasts could be felt several kilometres away, and was registered as seismic activity at a US Geological Survey monitoring unit in Beijing 160km (100 miles) away.

The China Earthquake Networks Centre said the magnitude of the first explosion was the equivalent of detonating three tonnes of TNT, while the second was the equivalent of 21 tonnes.

Blast ‘like end of the world’

Pictures reveal devastation

Daylight revealed the extent of the devastation around the warehouse
Buildings and cars within a two kilometre radius of the explosion were destroyed
Hundreds of people were injured by flying glass and debris
Shipping container boxes were crumpled by the heat
Tianjin is a major port and industrial area to the south-east of Beijing

“I saw fire burning and then: Boom! There was an explosion. My first reaction was to run as fast as I could and get down on the ground to save my life,” Wu Dejun, 38, a hairstylist, told Reuters.

“When I escaped, I had blood all over me.”

“It was like what we were told a nuclear bomb would be like,” truck driver Zhao Zhencheng told the AP news agency. “I’ve never even thought I’d see such a thing. It was terrifying, but also beautiful.”

Media caption Pictures and video shared on social media showed the moment of the blast

The blast ripped apart a nearby dormitory for migrant workers, who were forced to flee the collapsing building.

“I rolled off the bed after the first shockwave hit, so I scrambled to run for my life,” said resident Dan Agio.

“When I reach downstairs the second blast happened. It’s as if the sky collapsed. In a blink of an eye, the roof fell.”

Media caption Explosions survivor “The second blast blew me away”

As of 12:00 local time (04:00 GMT), 44 people had died and a total of 520 people were being treated in hospital, Xinhua reported.

Around 1,000 firefighters, along with 140 fire engines, spent the night tackling the flames.

A number were reportedly already on the scene at the time of the explosions, having been called out to earlier reports of a fire in the area.

There was an outpouring of support for them on social media as it became apparent that they were among the dead, injured and missing.

Media caption The BBC’s John Sudworth reports from inside the blast zone

Hospitals struggled to cope as residents rushed there to be treated for injuries or for news of missing loved ones.

Many without injuries responded for calls to donate blood, and long queues formed outside blood donation centres.

Chinese media has reported that the blasts happened after a shipment of explosives detonated in a warehouse owned by Ruihai Logistics, a company that specialises in handling dangerous and toxic chemicals.

State broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV) said at least one person from the “relevant company” had been detained for questioning.

There has been some criticism in Chinese media that a warehouse containing such dangerous chemicals should have been sited near a main road, housing complexes and office blocks.

Tianjin, home to some 15 million people, is a major port and industrial area to the south-east of the Chinese capital, Beijing.

Tests are being undertaken to check pollution levels both in the air and water around Tianjin. Tanker traffic in and out of the port has been disrupted.

The blasts caused a huge fireball that lit up the night sky

People flooded on to nearby streets shortly after the explosions

Other:

(Video credit: benalvino1860)

(Video credit: Daily Leak)

(Video credit: Mohammed Shariff)

(Video credit: Jack Will)

(Video credit: Daily Leak)

TAIWAN/ CHINA: Typhoon Soudelor (13W) 081500Z POSITION near 24.9N 118.9E, moving NW at 08 knots (JTWC) – Updated 080815 1506Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Soudelor (13W)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 26 FEET (JTWC)

TAIWAN AND CHINA BEWARE!

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

Japan Meteorological agency

1513-00 8
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15080821

TY 1513 (SOUDELOR)
Issued at 13:00 UTC, 8 August 2015

<Analyses at 08/12 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N24°55′(24.9°)
E119°30′(119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E650km(350NM)
W500km(270NM)
<Forecast for 09/00 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N26°20′(26.3°)
E117°35′(117.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area NE220km(120NM)
SW190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 09/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27°55′(27.9°)
E116°35′(116.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N30°50′(30.8°)
E116°00′(116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

CWB Taiwan

CWB TAIWAN (Click here)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 13W (Soudelor) Warning #38
Issued at 08/1500Z

wp1315 8

13W_081132sair

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 038
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 24.6N 119.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 119.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 25.9N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 27.6N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 118.9E.
TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Aug, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon SOUDELOR (13W) currently located near 24.6 N 119.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Ganzhou (25.7 N, 115.0 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201513W 8

News Reports

Tropical Storm in Mariana Islands

President Barack Obama has declared the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands a disaster area and is ordering federal aid to help the U.S. territory in the aftermath of a destructive typhoon. The White House on Thursday announced the disaster declaration for Typhoon Soudelor, which destroyed homes, toppled trees and snapped utility poles over the weekend on the 48-square-mile island of Saipan. Damage surveys were ongoing, but the commonwealth remained without electricity and running water, and residents were rationing fuel. Most major roadways have been cleared of uprooted trees and debris, Saipan resident Glen Hunter said. “The morning after the typhoon, you could not get anywhere because of the power poles … and trees that fell on the ground,” lifelong Saipan resident Lucy Selepeo said. “The tin houses, practically everything just flew away. The only thing you can see from the houses are the foundations.” Selepeo said concrete homes that withstood the winds, like hers, are flooded. More than 500 people on Saipan were in shelters, according to the Red Cross. Officials distributed water at various stations across the island. Still, signs of aid remained scarce going into the fifth day after the storm, Selepeo said. “I encountered a family of eight who slept on the beach in their car because their home flew away,” she said. About 50,000 people live on the commonwealth’s four populated islands, with most residing on Saipan, which took the brunt of the storm. Nearby Tinian got some damage, while Rota was spared, said Gregorio Kilili Camcacho Sablan, the commonwealth’s delegate to U.S. Congress. As for Pagan, “No idea,” he said. “I have no way to contact Pagan.” Ten generators were being shipped from Guam to power water pumps in Saipan, but the harbor was closed Thursday because of a listing boat that was half underwater, Sablan said. Restoring power could take a month or two, he said. “I haven’t seen a storm like this in 20 years,” Sablan said. “Unfortunately, the resources we have are hardly enough to get things up.” Wind speeds during the storm were between 100 mph and 120 mph. In an area that’s used to typhoons, Sablan said he and others were expecting it to pass with maybe 80 mph winds. That there were no reports of deaths or serious injury “seems almost impossible,” Hunter said. There initially was a $20-per-vehicle limit on buying gasoline, which meant motorists could get only about four gallons, Hunter said. Some easily burned through that amount while waiting in long lines at the pumps. On Thursday, the limit increased to $50, Sablan said. Gov. Eloy Inos was on vacation visiting his children on the U.S. mainland. “He’s doing everything he can to come back home. … He’s very anxious,” Sablan said. Despite the desperate conditions, residents were hopeful.

“There is nowhere to go but up from here,” Selepeo said. “We’re optimistic. We will recover.”
Saturday, 08 August, 2015 at 04:39 (04:39 AM) UTC RSOE

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

seawarn 8

Marine Warnings: SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA

23:35 JST 08/08/2015

OKINAWA WX
082100JST ISSUED AT 082335JST

STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA SOUTH OF
OKINAWA

TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970HPA AT 24.9N 119.5E MOVING NNW 09KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150NM NE SIDE AND 100NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350NM EAST SIDE AND 270NM ELSEWHERE
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900JST AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 55KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100JST AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 45KT NEAR CENTER

IN SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE-LY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

IN SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100JST AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION

WARNING VALID 092100JST

Marine Warnings: SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA

23:35 JST 08/08/2015

OKINAWA WX
082100JST ISSUED AT 082335JST

STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA SOUTH OF
OKINAWA

TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970HPA AT 24.9N 119.5E MOVING NNW 09KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150NM NE SIDE AND 100NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350NM EAST SIDE AND 270NM ELSEWHERE
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900JST AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 55KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100JST AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 45KT NEAR CENTER

IN SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE-LY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

IN SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100JST AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION

WARNING VALID 092100JST

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN /081200

WTJP21 RJTD 081200
WARNING 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970 HPA
AT 24.9N 119.5E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Korea/ China: Severe Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (09W) 12/1500Z POSITION nr 37.5N 125.1E, moving N/NNE 20 knots (JTWC) – Updated 120715 1500z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (09W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1509-00 c12

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15071215 c12

STS 1509 (CHAN-HOM)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 12 July 2015

<Analyses at 12/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N36°35′(36.6°)
E125°00′(125.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E600km(325NM)
W390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 13/00 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N39°40′(39.7°)
E127°00′(127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 13/12 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N42°10′(42.2°)
E130°30′(130.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 09W (Chan-hom) Warning #49
Issued at 12/1500Z

wp0915 c12

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 11/2100Z

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 11/2100Z

09W_112332sams c12

WTPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 049
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121200Z — NEAR 36.8N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 015 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.8N 124.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 39.6N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 40.9N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 37.5N 125.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Jul, 2015 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM (09W) currently located near 36.8 N 124.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    P’yongyang (39.0 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sariwon (38.5 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kanggye (41.0 N, 126.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Hamhung (39.9 N, 127.6 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Sinuiju (40.1 N, 124.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201509W_0 c12

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

seawarn c12

CLICK IMAGE FOR MORE DETAIL

WTJP21 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509) 980 HPA
AT 36.6N 125.0E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 39.7N 127.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 42.2N 130.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 120600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED EASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED
BY 15N 176E 15N 180E 13N 180E 13N 176E 15N 176E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED WESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED
BY 13N 176E 13N 180E 11N 180E 11N 176E 13N 176E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 32N 136E 33N 136E
35N 137E 36N 143E 43N 146E 56N 163E 60N 164E 60N 180E 40N 180E 36N
160E 32N 142E 32N 136E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 49N 132E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 47N 153E SE 15 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 57N 146E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1511 NANGKA (1511) 950 HPA AT 18.6N 137.6E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509) 975 HPA AT 34.9N 124.2E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South China Sea/ China: Tropical Storm Kujira (08W) 21/1200Z at 16.6N 111.3E almost stationary (JMA) – Updated 210615 1315z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Kujira 08W
(upgraded by JMA from TD at 09:50 UTC 21 June 2015)

Hainan Island and western Guangdong in China beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. – JTWC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Japan Meteorological agency

1508-00

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15062115

TS 1508 (KUJIRA)
Issued at 09:50 UTC, 21 June 2015

<Analyses at 21/09 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N16°25′(16.4°)
E111°20′(111.3°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 22/09 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N18°40′(18.7°)
E111°10′(111.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
<Forecast for 23/06 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N20°35′(20.6°)
E110°10′(110.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 24/06 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N22°55′(22.9°)
E109°20′(109.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

Hong Kong Observatory

Tropical Depression KUJIRA
at 17:00 HKT 21 June 2015

Position: 16.5 N, 111.3 E (about 710 km south-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 55 km/h
Tropical Depression Kujira will intensify slightly, and move north in the general direction of Hainan Island and western Guangdong in the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Track at 17:00 HKT 21 June 2015

Tropical Cyclone Track at 17:00 HKT 21 June 2015

Tropical Cyclone Track at 17:00 HKT 21 June 2015

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
17:00 HKT 22 June 2015 19.0 N 111.1 E Tropical Storm 75 km/h
17:00 HKT 23 June 2015 21.2 N 110.1 E Tropical Storm 65 km/h
17:00 HKT 24 June 2015 23.7 N 108.8 E Tropical Depression 45 km/h
17:00 HKT 25 June 2015 25.9 N 107.4 E Low Pressure Area 40 km/h

Download 256km Radar from HKO

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 08W (Kujira) Warning #04
Issued at 21/0900Z

wp0815

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/08W_210532sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
210600Z — NEAR 16.4N 111.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 111.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 17.4N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 18.8N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z — 20.2N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 21.4N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 23.3N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 111.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 186 NM
EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 210600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 210600.
WARNING VALID 220600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 39N 142E 42N 141E
42N 144E 47N 152E 53N 160E 60N 164E 60N 180E 30N 180E 30N 160E 30N
140E 37N 152E 39N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 32N 140E EAST 20 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 52N 152E NE 15 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 38N 161E ENE 20 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 34N 124E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 40N 134E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 57N 141E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 37N 149E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 48N 168E NE 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 57N 171E ENE 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N 110E TO 28N 116E 26N 126E 28N 135E 32N 140E
31N 147E 30N 156E 33N 163E 38N 167E 38N 171E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1508 KUJIRA (1508) 996 HPA AT 16.4N 111.4E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Hong Kong Observatory

Bulletin issued at 18:30 HKT 21/Jun/2015
Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 210900 UTC, Tropical Depression Kujira (1508) with central pressure 992 hectopascals was centred within 60 nautical miles of one six point five degrees north (16.5 N) one one one point three degrees east (111.3 E) and is forecast to move north at about 6 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 30 knots.

Radius of over 2 metre waves 120 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 220900 UTC
One nine point zero degrees north (19.0 N)
One one one point one degrees east (111.1 E)
Maximum winds 40 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 230900 UTC
Two one point two degrees north (21.2 N)
One one zero point one degrees east (110.1 E)
Maximum winds 35 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 240900 UTC
Two three point seven degrees north (23.7 N)
One zero eight point eight degrees east (108.8 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 250900 UTC
Dissipated over land.

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 211200
WARNING 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1508 KUJIRA (1508) 992 HPA
AT 16.6N 111.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 19.2N 111.2E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 21.5N 110.1E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 23.2N 108.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Other warnings can be found at

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Luzon/ Philippines/ China/ Hong Kong/ Vietnam: Typhoon KALMAEGI (15W)/ LUIS: 141800Z near 18.4N 119.6E, moving WNW at 17 knots (JMA) – Updated 140914 2000z (UTC)

Typhoon KALMAEGI (15W)/Bagyong LUIS in the Philippines

Typhoon “LUIS” has slightly weakened as it continues to cross the Northern Luzon area – PAGASA

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1415

TY 1415 (KALMAEGI)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 14 September 2014

<Analyses at 14/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N18°25′(18.4°)
E119°35′(119.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE390km(210NM)
NW280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 15/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°40′(18.7°)
E116°20′(116.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 15/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°40′(19.7°)
E113°25′(113.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 16/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°20′(21.3°)
E107°10′(107.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 17/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N22°50′(22.8°)
E102°20′(102.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)

 

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

luis 14091412

 

EVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER  TWELVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: TYPHOON “LUIS” (KALMAEGI)
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Sunday, 14 September 2014

 

 

Typhoon “LUIS” has slightly weaken as it continues to cross the Northern Luzon area.

 

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.)
 in the vicinity of Kabugao, Apayao
Coordinates: 18.0°N, 121.1°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 150 kph.
Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 30 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Monday morning:
outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)

Monday evening:
492 km West of Laoag City

 

 Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS Luzon Visayas Mindanao
# 3(Winds of 101-185 kph is expected in at least 18 hrs) Cagayan including Babuyan and Calayan Group of Islands, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Kalinga, Mt. Province and Ilocos Sur   None None
# 2(Winds of 61-100 kph is expected in at least 24 hrs) Batanes Group of Islands, Isabela, Ifugao, La Union, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya and Pangasinan None None
#1
(winds of 30 – 60 kph is expected in atleast
36 hours)
Tarlac, Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan Nueva Ecija, Quirino and Aurora None None

 

Public storm warning signals elsewhere are now lowered.

 

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #3, #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #3 and #2 are alerted against storm surges of up to 2 meters.

 

Estimated rainfall amount is from 8 – 20 mm per hour (heavy – Intense) within the 500 km diameter of the Typhoon.

 

The rest of Luzon and Western Visayas will have monsoon rains with moderate to strong southwesterly surface windflow due to the Southwest Monsoon.

 

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the westerm seaboard of Central Luzon and seaboards of Southern Luzon and Visayas.

 

The public and the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (DRRMC) concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

See more: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/hourly-update

For more information and queries, please call at telephone numbers 927-1335 and 927-2877 or log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1514.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/15W_141132sair.jpg

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
141200Z — NEAR 17.9N 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 121.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z — 18.8N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 19.6N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 20.4N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 21.2N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 22.6N 102.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 24.1N 97.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 121.0E.
TYPHOON 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.
//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Sep, 2014 12:00 GMT

Typhoon KALMAEGI (15W) currently located near 17.9 N 121.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Typhoon Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) Afternoon Video Update | September 14, 2014

Typhoon Kalmaegi / Luis Nearing Landfall Sunday – WestPacWx

Rain

Out of this storm of course the rainfall is going to be a big threat. Starting Sunday through Tuesday much of Luzon will be drenched with heavy showers including the Manila area mainly on Monday. The hardest hit areas should be along the north eastern coast of Luzon where up to 200-300mm of rainfall could come down on Sunday night through Monday. Flooding and landslides across North Eastern Luzon will be likely on Monday. The Iligan and Tuguegarao areas could see urban flooding as well making travel for anyone headed out on Monday not only rough but possibly impossible at times.

The good news is the storm is moving at a relativly fast pace of 15km thus the rainfall shouldnt last over a long period of time and will be over by Monday afternoon in eastern Luzon.

Winds Winds will also be an issue for towns along the eastern coastlines north of the storms center of circulation. Here we could see damaging typhoon strength winds maxing out with gust as high as 90-100kts at times for coastal exposed locations. Good news as we always state with this part of the Philippines is that typhoons are not that uncommon. In fact most towns are built inland away from immediate coastal areas due to the fact that it is hit so often.

Surge Storm surge in immediate low lying areas will also be an issue. But only along immediate coastlines and areas that often flood during high tides.

Manila For the most part the NCR should miss the worst of this storm. But based on guidance at this time Tropical Storm strength winds up to 35-40kts are likely as we head through Monday morning and the storm tracks north of the city. The strongest winds will be along the bay area dissapating the farther you go inland.

This is enough to blow around light debris making for dangerous driving conditions. In SHORT its going to be a messy Sunday and Monday in Luzon. Stay tuned to your official agency PAGASA for local warnings and as always be smart about how you plan your day during these storms. If you are being advised to evacuate, get to an evacuation center! Stay safe everyone.”- westernpacificweather.com/2014/09/14/typhoon-kalmaegi-luis-nearing-landfall-sunday/

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South Korea/ Yellow Sea: Severe Tropical Storm NAKRI 1412 12W 021500Z near 33.7N 124.8E, moving N at 10km/h(6kt)(JMA) – Updated 020814 1837z (UTC)

Tropical Storm NAKRI

1412 (JMA) #12W (JTWC)

 9/02/20149/03/2014

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS NOW OUT OF DATE

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency (JMA is the lead agency in this area)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

TS 1412 (NAKRI)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 2 August 2014

<Analyses at 02/15 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N33°40′(33.7°)
E124°50′(124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E560km(300NM)
W370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 03/03 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N34°50′(34.8°)
E124°35′(124.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 03/15 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°25′(35.4°)
E125°10′(125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N36°30′(36.5°)
E126°50′(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slowly
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N38°00′(38.0°)
E129°00′(129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
 Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

South Korea

Korea Meteorological Administration

No.12 NAKRI

Issued at(KST) : 2014.08.03. 01:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2014.08.02. 15:00 Analysis 33.5 124.7 985 25 90 300
(NNE 260)
Normal Medium N 11
2014.08.03. 03:00 Forecast 34.6 124.8 990 24 86 250
(NNE 220)
Weak Small N 10 100
2014.08.03. 15:00 Forecast 35.5 125.1 994 21 76 210
(NNE 180)
Weak Small NNE 9 150
2014.08.04. 03:00 Forecast 36.1 125.6 996 19 68 150
(NE 120)
Weak Small NE 7 210
2014.08.04. 15:00 Forecast 36.6 126.2 1000 NE 6

�� It is provided only for the typhoon information in progress. The past information could be found in National Typhoon Center homepage.

�� National Typhoon Center Homepage

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1214.gif

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp12140215.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/12W_021132sair.jpg

WTPN32 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
021200Z — NEAR 33.3N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.3N 124.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z — 34.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 35.3N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 36.1N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 36.9N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 39.0N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 33.6N 124.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND
031500Z. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logo

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Aug, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NAKRI (12W) currently located near 32.7 N 124.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    China
        probability for TS is 75% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 72 hours
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Sariwon (38.5 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    P’yongyang (39.0 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Other Reports

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 021200
WARNING 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1412 NAKRI (1412) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 980 HPA
AT 33.3N 124.5E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 34.6N 124.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 35.4N 125.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 36.5N 126.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 38.0N 129.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1200

WWJP25 RJTD 021200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 51N 157E
60N 163E 60N 180E 40N 180E 40N 160E 36N 150E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 56N 142E ESE SLOWLY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 42N 153E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 53N 166E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 29N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 40N 174E EAST SLOWLY.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1411 HALONG (1411) 935 HPA AT 14.9N 135.1E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1412 NAKRI (1412) 980 HPA AT 33.3N 124.5E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA /1200

WWCI50 BABJ 021200
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1530UTC AUG.02 2014=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC AUG. 02=
FORECAST VALID 1200UTC AUG. 03=
WARNNING=
SUPER TY HALONG 1411(1411) 940HPA AT 15.1N 135.1E
MOVING WNW 12KM/H AND MAX WINDS 58M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 19.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
300KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
480KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
AND PADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
160KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
210KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
AND PADIUS OF 64KTS WINDS
70KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
AND FORECAST FOR 031200UTC AT 16.2N 132.5E 910HPA
AND MAX WINDS 65M/S NEAR CENTER=
TS NAKRI 1412(1412) 985HPA AT 32.8N 124.6E
MOVING NNW 12KM/H AND MAX WINDS 23M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 7.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
400KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
400KM SOUTHWEST
350KM NORTHWEST
AND FORECAST FOR 031200UTC AT 35.3N 125.1E 995HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
WINDS FROM 12 TO 18M/S GUST 23M/S SEAS UP TO 5.5M
OVER SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 16 TO 23M/S GUST 28M/S SEAS
UP TO 6.0M OVER NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
AND BASHI CHANNEL AND SOUTH PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 14 TO 20M/S GUST 23M/S SEAS UP TO
6.0M OVER KOREA STRAIT=
SLY WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
4.0M OVER SEA NEAR RYUKYU ISLANDS AND SEA SOUTHWEST
OF JAPAN=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 38 TO 50M/S SEAS UP TO 15.0M
OVER SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 20 TO 28M/S SEAS UP TO 9.0M
OVER SEA WEST OF GUAM=
WINDS FROM 42 TO 52M/S SEAS UP TO 17.0M OVER SEAS
NEAR CENTER OF HALONG=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER SOUTH PART
OF YELLOW SEA AND NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND
SEA NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN AND KOREA STRAIT AND SEA
SOUTHWEST OF JAPAN AND SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA
ISLANDS AND ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
AND SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT BANDA AND LAUT MALUKU=
FORECAST=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 16 TO 24M/S GUST 25 TO 32M/S
SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER MIDDLE AND SOUTH PARTS OF
YELLOW SEA AND NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
NE WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS
UP TO 4.0M OVER NORTH PART OF YELLOW SEA=
NE WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S GUST 17M/S SEAS UP TO
2.5M OVER BOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT=
SW WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER
SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT
AND MIDDLE PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER SEA
EAST OF TAIWAN AND BASHI CHANNEL AND SOUTH PART OF
SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 17M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SOUTHWEST PART FO JAPAN SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 16 TO 24M/S SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER
KOREA STRAIT=
SLY/SE WINDS FROM 08 TO 17M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=
NW WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S WILL INCREASE FROM 18 TO
24M/S SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER SEA NORTHEAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 33 TO 41M/S SEAS UP TO 14.0M
OVER SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS=
SW WINDS FROM 18 TO 24M/S SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER SEA
WEST OF GUAM=
WINDS FROM 50 TO 60M/S SEAS UP TO 18.0M OVER
SEAS NEAR CENTER OF HALONG=

China/ Taiwan: Tropical Storm Matmo (10W): 240600Z near 29.1N 117.9E, moving N at 25kmh(13knots) (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 240714 0745z (UTC)

Tropical Storm  1410 (MATMO) ( RSMC Tokyo)

Tropical Storm  201410 (MATMO) (CWB Taiwan)

 Tropical Storm 10W (MATMO)(TWC)

Bagyong Henry (#HenryPH) in Philippines

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

RSMC Tokyo (Lead agency in this area)

Japan Meteorological agency

TS 1410 (MATMO)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 24 July 2014

<Analyses at 24/06 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N29°05′(29.1°)
E117°55′(117.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E500km(270NM)
W330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 24/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N32°50′(32.8°)
E118°35′(118.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 25/06 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N35°55′(35.9°)
E120°35′(120.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TAIWAN

Typhoon Path

Taiwan Weather Warning

HONG KONG

Tropical Storm MATMO
at 08:00 HKT 24 July 2014

Position: 27.9 N, 117.9 E (about 730 km north-northeast of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 85 km/h

Tropical Cyclone Track at 08:00 HKT 24 July 2014

Tropical Cyclone Track at 08:00 HKT 24 July 2014

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
08:00 HKT 25 July 2014 33.4 N 119.7 E Tropical Depression 45 km/h
08:00 HKT 26 July 2014 38.4 N 123.5 E Tropical Depression 55 km/h
08:00 HKT 27 July 2014 40.1 N 127.0 E Extratropical Low

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The accuracies, based on average errors, of the latest analysed and forecast positions are of the order of:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 150 km
    48-hour forecast position 250 km
    72-hour forecast position 350 km
  • The centres of the red, blue and grey circles are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure). The radii of the circles are the respective accuracies.
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are based on Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warning for shipping issued eight times a day at 0:30, 3:30, 6:30, 9:30, 12:30, 15:30, 18:30 and 21:30 HKT, about one and a half hours after the time of observation. The analysed positions incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based provisional positions given in the hourly bulletins for public. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/10W_231132sair.jpg

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 231500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 025
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 10W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 25.8N 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8N 119.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 28.0N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 30.6N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 26.4N 118.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEGENERATE AS
IT TRAVERSES NORTH IN EASTERN CHINA ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SITUATED OVER THE RYUKYU ISLAND CHAIN.
MATMO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
TOPOGRAPHICAL FRICTION AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER
LAND, APPROXIMATELY 150NM WEST OF SHANGHAI IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
IT IS ABSORBED IN THE MID-LATITUDE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 23 Jul, 2014 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm MATMO (10W) currently located near 25.8 N 119.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

OTHER REPORTS

Matmo Weakens but still causing problems. ( Thursday Update )

MARITIME

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 240600
WARNING 240600.
WARNING VALID 250600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1410 MATMO (1410) 990 HPA
AT 29.1N 117.9E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 32.8N 118.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 35.9N 120.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0000

WWJP25 RJTD 240000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 240000.
WARNING VALID 250000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 38N 142E 40N 142E
42N 141E 42N 143E 46N 150E 51N 157E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 44N
180E 38N 160E 38N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 48N 134E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 42N 147E ENE 15 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 49N 148E ENE 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 10N 135E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 08N 148E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 24N 136E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 47N 176E ALMOST STATIONARY.
WARM FRONT FROM 42N 147E TO 40N 150E 38N 151E.
COLD FRONT FROM 42N 147E TO 40N 145E 38N 141E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 38N 141E TO 37N 133E 36N 120E 32N 115E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1410 MATMO (1410) 990 HPA AT 27.9N 117.7E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 0600

WWCI50 BABJ 240000
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 0330UTC JUL.24 2014=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000UTC JUL. 24=
FORECAST VALID 0000UTC JUL. 25=
WARNNING=
STS MATMO 1410(1410) 990HPA AT 27.9N 117.9E
MOVING N 30KM/H AND MAX WINDS 23M/S AND
FORECAST FOR 250000UTC AT 34.5N 118.8E 998HPA
AND MAX WINDS 15M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
SLY WINDS FROM 14 TO 22M/S GUST 26M/S SEAS UP TO
4.5M OVER EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT AND
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND NORTHEAST PART OF
SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 14M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
3.0M OVER BASHI CHANNEL AND SOUTHWEST PART OF
SOUTH CHINA SEA=
FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SOUTH PARTS OF
YELLOW SEA AND HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS
THAN 5KM=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM ALSO OVER
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA AND
SUNDA STRAIT=
FORECAST=
SE WINDS FROM 06 TO 08M/S BACK NE WINDS FROM 12
TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER BOHAI SEA
AND BOHAI STRAIT AND NORTH AND MIDDLE PARTS
OF YELLOW SEA=
SLY/SE WINDS 12 TO 18M/S GUST 22M/S SEAS
UP TO 3.5M OVER SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA
AND NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
SLY/SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUST 24M/S SEAS
UP TO 4.5M OVER SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
AND TAIWAN STRAIT AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 14M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
3.5M OVER BASHI CHANNEL=
SW WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM 14 TO 20M/S GUST 24M/S
TO 08 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER NORTHEAST PART
OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 14M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
3.0M OVER SOUTH PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 12 TO 14M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP
TO 3.0M OVER SEA WEST OF GUAM=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 14M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP
TO 2.5M OVER SEA NORTHEAST OF INDONESIA=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 0000

WWHK82 VHHH 240000
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
TROPICAL STORM (TS) MATMO(1410):
RADIUS OF GALES: 90 NM OVER E SEMICIRCLE, 60 NM ELSEWHERE.
SYNOPSIS (240000UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MATMO (1410) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TS.
AT 240000UTC, MATMO WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA AND
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KT WAS CENTERED WITHIN 60 NM OF 27.9N
117.9E AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE N AT ABOUT 14 KT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 250000UTC: 33.4N, 119.7E
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER GALE WARNING AREA.
SWELL S TO SW 3 M OVER SEAS NEAR LUZON, SEAS NEAR TAIWAN,
NE PART OF SCS.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQUALLY(SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) WITHIN 180 NM FROM CENTRE OF MATMO(1410).
SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF
SCS AND SEAS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VIS 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

METAREA XI

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China: City of Yumen sealed off, 151 people quarantined, after Bubonic Plague death – Published 230714 1111z

Plague kills man in NW China

LANZHOU, July 18 (Xinhua) — A 38-year-old man in northwest China’s Gansu Province has died of plague, local authorities said.

The case was reported in Yumen City under the jurisdiction of Jiuquan City, the Jiuquan government said on Thursday. The man, who died on Wednesday, had been in contact with a dead marmot, which is of the squirrel family.

A total of 151 people who had close contact with the man have been put in quarantine and are under medical observation. None of them has reported syndromes of the disease so far, according to the local government.

The National Health and Family Planning Commission has sent disease prevention and control specialists to Yumen to prevent the plague from spreading.

Plague is categorized as a Class A infectious disease, the most serious under China’s Law on the Prevention and Treatment of Infectious Diseases.

END

The Guardian home

Chinese city sealed off after bubonic plague death

30,000 residents of Yumen are not being allowed to leave and 151 people have been placed in quarantine after man’s death
  • theguardian.com, Tuesday 22 July 2014 12.59 BST

A Chinese city has been sealed off and 151 people have been placed in quarantine since last week after a man died of bubonic plague, state media said.

The 30,000 residents of Yumen, in the north-western province of Gansu, are not being allowed to leave, and police at roadblocks on the perimeter of the city are telling motorists to find alternative routes, China Central Television (CCTV) said.

A 38-year-old man died last Wednesday, the report said, after he had been in contact with a dead marmot, a small furry animal related to the squirrel. No further plague cases have been reported.

CCTV said officials were not allowing anyone to leave. The China Daily newspaper said four quarantine sectors had been set up in the city.

“The city has enough rice, flour and oil to supply all its residents for up to one month,” CCTV added. “Local residents and those in quarantine are all in stable condition.” No further cases have been reported.

Bubonic plague is a bacterial infection best known for the Black Death, a virulent epidemic that killed tens of millions of people in 14th-century Europe. Primarily an animal illness, it is extremely rare in humans.

The US Centres for Disease Control (CDC) says modern antibiotics are effective in treating plague, but that without prompt treatment the disease can cause serious illness or death.

END

Bubonic plague

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This article is about the disease in general. For information about the medieval European plague, see Black Death
Bubonic plague is a zoonotic disease, circulating mainly in fleas on small rodents, and is one of three types of bacterial infections caused by Yersinia pestis (formerly known as Pasteurella pestis), that belongs to the family Enterobacteriaceae. Without treatment, the bubonic plague kills about two thirds of infected humans within four days.

The term bubonic plague is derived from the Greek word βουβών, meaning “groin”. Swollen lymph nodes (buboes) especially occur in the armpit and groin in persons suffering from bubonic plague. Bubonic plague was often used synonymously for plague, but it does in fact refer specifically to an infection that enters through the skin and travels through the lymphatics, as is often seen in flea-borne infections.

Bubonic plague—along with the septicemic plague and the pneumonic plague, which are the two other manifestations of Y. pestis—is commonly believed to be the cause of the Black Death that swept through Europe in the 14th century and killed an estimated 25 million people, or 30–60% of the European population.[1] Around the Mediterranean Region, summers seemed to be the season when the disease took place. While in Europe, people found the disease most occurring in the autumn.[2] Because the plague killed so many of the working population, wages rose and some historians have seen this as a turning point in European economic development.[3][4]

More from Wikipedia (link)

Hainan/ China/ Vietnam: Typhoon Rammasun/ Glenda (09W): 181800Z near 21.0N 109.4E, moving NW at 20kmh (11kt)(JMA) – Updated 180714 2012z (UTC)

THIS IS NOW OUT OF DATE

Typhoon

Rammasun/Glenda was from 17 to 19 July 2014

Typhoon Rammasun/Glenda (09W)

(Equivalent to a CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

TY 1409 (RAMMASUN) (JMA)

Rammasun has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 Super Typhoon (1-min sustained winds) and is now affecting Hainan and other parts of Southern China. This highly catastrophic storm is one of the strongest cyclones to ever hit Southern China and will affect as much as 20 million people over the next 24 hours – WestPacWx

 Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours – TSR

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

Japan Meteorological agency

TY 1409 (RAMMASUN)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 18 July 2014

<Analyses at 18/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N21°00′(21.0°)
E109°25′(109.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E330km(180NM)
W220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 19/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°55′(21.9°)
E107°35′(107.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 19/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N22°35′(22.6°)
E105°50′(105.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 20/18 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N23°05′(23.1°)
E104°20′(104.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 1002hPa
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Hong Kong

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
Bulletin issued at 03:45 HKT 19/Jul/2014

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

All signals were cancelled at 3:40 a.m.

At 4 a.m., Severe Typhoon Rammasun was centred about 540 kilometres west-southwest of Hong Kong (near 21.3 degrees north 109.1 degrees east) and is forecast to move northwest or west-northwest at about 22 kilometres per hour across Beibu Wan towards the coast of Guangxi.

Rammasun is moving across Beibu Wan and will soon make landfall over the coast of Guangxi. As Rammasun gradually moves away from Hong Kong, local winds continue to moderate. Yet there will still be squally showers today.

Since there will be swells, members of the public should remain on the alert.

Super Typhoon RAMMASUN
at 02:00 HKT 19 July 2014

Position: 20.9 N, 109.5 E (about 510 km west-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 185 km/h
Forecast moving direction and speed: northwest or west-northwest, 22 km/h

Tropical Cyclone Track at 02:00 HKT 19 July 2014

Tropical Cyclone Track at 02:00 HKT 19 July 2014

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
23:00 HKT 19 July 2014 22.5 N 106.1 E Typhoon 120 km/h
23:00 HKT 20 July 2014 22.7 N 103.0 E Low Pressure Area 40 km/h

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The accuracies, based on average errors, of the latest analysed and forecast positions are of the order of:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 150 km
    48-hour forecast position 250 km
    72-hour forecast position 350 km

     

  • The centres of the red, blue and grey circles are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure). The radii of the circles are the respective accuracies.
  • The analysed tropical cyclone position (the symbol tropical cyclone symbol ) is based on Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly bulletin for public derived from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions.
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are updated every hour. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong, and forecast moving direction and speed.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/09W_181132sair.jpg

 

 

WTPN32 PGTW 181500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 033
DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON 09W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
181200Z — NEAR 20.3N 110.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 110.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 21.5N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 22.6N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 23.4N 104.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 109.8E.
TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251 NM EAST OF
HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 35
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 18 Jul, 2014 12:00 GMT

Typhoon RAMMASUN (09W) currently located near 20.3 N 110.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
   China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Rammasun has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 Super Typhoon (1-min sustained winds) and is now affecting Hainan and other parts of Southern China. This highly catastrophic storm is one of the strongest cyclones to ever hit Southern China and will affect as much as 20 million people over the next 24 hours.

Watch WxCaster PAT’s latest Video Update below for more in-depth analysis and forecasts for Super Typhoon Rammasun.

China Meteorological Administration (CMA) confirmed landfall at the city of Wenchang on the Northeastern part of Hainan Island. A weather station in this city recorded winds of 180kph to as much as 220kph! The city of Haikou is also reporting sustained typhoon-force winds of up to 130kph and gusts of up to 165kph! Another highly-populated city that this system is affecting is Zhanjiang which is home to nearly 1.2 million people (nearly 7 million people metro-wide).

CCTV has now reported at least one confirmed death due to the storm. 

Radar Image from CMA

rammasun radar hainan

Latest radar image out of Hainan shows the perfectly symmetrical eye now moving into Leizhou Peninsula. Widespread heavy rains

Via CCTV

are affecting much of Hainan and parts of Guangdong Province. Outer rain bands are moving as far away as Hong Kong bringing light to moderate rains in the area. We are expecting anywhere from 200 to as much as 300mm of rainfall over the next 24 hours for Hainan and Leizhou. This will only compound to the already damaging winds in the area. Furthermore, coastal areas will also be dealing with significant storm surge especially along the eastern portions of Leizhou Peninsula.

For the latest radar images and warnings from China, please click HERE (CMA Website)

As many as 40,000 people have been told to evacuate ahead of the storm in the area.

 

Super Typhoon Rammasun will continue moving slowly northwestward and will continue to bring damaging weather conditions across Southern China for the next 12 hours. It will move into the Gulf of Tonkin and will weaken slightly but will still be a significant threat for Guangxi Province and Northern Vietnam.

——

Storm

Before the storms impact on China Typhoon Glenda (Sawyerean name Gøring, International name Rammasun) struck Metro Manila and is probably the strongest to hit Metro Manila since Typhoon Milenyo of 2006.

The storm has now caused at least 64 deaths, as tallied by the National Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC).

In Metro Manila, damage has been extensive. Until now power is yet to be restored in many areas, and Meralco announced of rotating blackout as the power supply in Luzon areas are insufficient to meet demands, due to damaged transmission lines and substations.

The rotating blackouts will ensue until the power supply stabilized, and Meralco has not yet established a definite timetable for this.

The strongest winds pummeled the Metro between 6 to 9 in the morning, where ferocious winds battered the metro. Lots of old trees, some as old as hundred years, fell, and many power lines were knocked out.

Roxas BLVD Via Rappler

 

We’ll continue to have updates on Rammasun as well as on the newest Tropical Storm (Matmo or Bagyong Henry) out in the Philippine Sea. Please stay safe and always heed the warnings of your local officials!

” –

NEWS

Australia Network News

At least one person killed after southern China’s strongest typhoon in four decades: state media

Updated 1937 UTC 18 July 2014

China’s state media says at least one person has been killed after southern China’s strongest typhoon in four decades made landfall in Hainan.

The National Meteorological Centre says Super Typhoon Rammasun ploughed into Wengtian, a town on the northeastern tip of the island, yesterday afternoon.

It was packing winds of up to 216 kilometres an hour.

Ahead of the typhoon’s arrival, hundreds of thousands of people were evacuated and hundreds of flights cancelled.

Super Typhoon Rammasun has already killed at least 54 people in the Philippines and is bringing heavy rains.

 

The Hainan government says it has ordered fishermen back to port while many flights, and all train services, are cancelled.

State television says access to all scenic spots on the island, which styles itself as China’s answer to Hawaii, had been closed, and 30,000 people evacuated from low-lying coastal areas.

Premier Li Keqiang, describing the situation as severe, says people’s lives must be put first.

“Prevent any accidents that may be caused (by the typhoon) and reduce disaster losses as much as possible,” the Hainan government cites Premier Li as saying.

Typhoons are common at this time of year in the South China Sea, picking up strength from the warm waters and dissipating over land.

Flooding across a large swathe of southern China in the past week has already killed at least 34 people.

Reuters/AFP

Preparing for a storm

  • Prepare an emergency kit based on the list here.
  • Make a note of the location of any item not in your kit.

During a Storm

  • Monitor your local emergency broadcaster for updates, warnings and advice
  • While conditions are severe, remain indoors and stay clear of windows
  • Make contact with neighbours and family members to ensure they’re safe and prepared
  • If you’re in your car, don’t drive into water without knowing the strength of the current and depth
  • Slow down, turn on your headlights and be aware of hazards on the roads such as powerlines and trees

After a Storm

  • Stay clear of creeks, drains and other water ways, as there’s a risk of flooding including flash floods
  • Be careful of fallen trees, powerlines and damaged buildings
  • Don’t go sightseeing, you could hamper the efforts of emergency services
  • Check on your neighbours as soon as it’s safe to do so

For more information, see ABC Emergency’s storm plan page

MARITIME

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 181800
WARNING 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1410 MATMO (1410) 994 HPA
AT 11.1N 132.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 13.5N 130.0E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 16.6N 127.4E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 19.2N 123.6E WITH 210 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 181200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 141E 43N 142E
51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 31N 172E 43N 165E 36N 157E 35N
141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 35N 150E SE 10 KT.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 31N 172E ENE 20 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 30N 142E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 49N 163E WEST 10 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1409 RAMMASUN (1409) 940 HPA AT 20.3N 110.2E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1410 MATMO (1410) 1000 HPA AT 10.6N 133.5E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 1200

WWCI50 BABJ 181200
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1530UTC JUL.18 2014=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC JUL. 18=
FORECAST VALID 1200UTC JUL. 19=
WARNNING=
SUPERTY RAMMASUN 1409(1409) 915HPA AT 20.3N 110.3E
MOVING WNW 22KM/H AND MAX WINDS 55M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 12.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
260KM NORTHEAST
300KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
260KM NORTHWEST
AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
140KM NORTHEAST
160KM SOUTHEAST
140KM SOUTHWEST
140KM NORTHWEST
AND RADIUS OF 64KTS WINDS
60KM NORTHEAST
60KM SOUTHEAST
60KM SOUTHWEST
60KM NORTHWEST
FORECAST FOR 191200UTC AT 22.6N 106.4E 995HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
TS MATMO 1410(1410) 994HPA AT 10.9N 133.5E
MOVING NW 10KM/H AND MAX WINDS 20M/S NEAR
CENTER (SEAS UP TO 3.5M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
130KM NORTHEAST
230KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
280KM NORTHWEST
FORECAST FOR 191200UTC AT 12.7N 131.9E 985HPA
AND MAX WINDS 28M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
WINDS FROM 26 TO 34M/S GUST 38 TO 44M/S SEAS UP TO
8.5M OVER NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA AND
QIONGZHOU STRAIT=
WINDS FROM 42 TO 55M/S SEAS UP TO 12.0M OVER
SEA NEAR CENTER OF RAMMASUN=
SE WINDS FROM 14 TO 18M/S GUST 22M/S SEAS UP TO
4.5M OVER NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 18 TO 24M/S GUST 26 TO 30M/S SEAS UP
TO 5.5M OVER MID-WEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 20 TO 25M/S SEAS UP TO 5.0M OVER
NORTHEAST PART OF BEIBU GULF=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER
SOUTH PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 14 TO 20M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M
OVER SEA WEST OF GUAM=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER PART
OF BOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT AND YELLOW SEA AND
NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA AND QIONGZHOU
STRAIT AND SEA WEST OF GUAM AND ANDAMAN SEA AND
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE
AND SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT MALUKU AND LAUT BANDA=
FORECAST=
WINDS FROM 25 TO 34M/S SEAS UP TO 8.5M OVER
NORTH PART OF BEIBU GULF AND QIONGZHOU STRAIT=
WINDS FROM 20 TO 25M/S GUST 30 TO 35M/S SEAS UP
TO 7.0M OVER AND SOUTH PART OF BEIBU GULF AND
NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 40 TO 48M/S SEAS UP TO 11.0M OVER SEA
NEAR CENTER OF RAMMASUN=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUST 24M/S SEAS UP TO
4.5M OVER NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUST 24M/S SEAS UP TO
4.5M OVER MID-WEST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF SOUTH
CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
3.5M OVER SOUTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 18 TO 24M/S GUST 25 TO 32M/S
SEAS UP TO 5.0M OVER SEA WEST OF GUAM=
WINDS FROM 25 TO 30M/S SEAS UP TO 7.5M OVER SEA
NEAR CENTER OF MATMO=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 1200

WWHK82 VHHH 181200
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
SUPER TYPHOON (SUPERT) RAMMASUN(1409):
RADIUS OF GALES :150NM N SEMICIRCLE, 120NM ELSEWHERE.
RADII OF STORMS, HURRICANES:90NM, 45NM.
SYNOPSIS (181200UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
AT 181200UTC, SUPERT RAMMASUN (1409) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
925 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS 105 KT WAS CENTERED WITHIN 10 NM
OF 20.3N 110.3E AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW OR WNW AT ABOUT
12 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 191200UTC: 22.4N, 106.5E
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6M, 10M, 14M OVER GALE, STORM, HURRICANE WARNING AREAS.
SWELL S TO SE 3-5 M OVER NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
(SCS).
SWELL SW 3-5 M OVER CENTRAL PART OF SCS.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQ SH AND TS WITHIN 360 NM FROM CENTRE OF
RAMMASUN(1409).
SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS NEAR PHILIPPINES.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VIS DOWN TO 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.=

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

 http://www.passageweather.com/maps/chinasea/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China: Storms in Guangdong Province leave at least 15 dead, at least 14 injured and 4 missing; more rain due – 020414 1455z

向下滾動為中國譯)(Scroll down for Chinese translation)

The death toll from rainstorms in south China’s Guangdong Province has risen to 15, while four other people remained missing, local authorities said on Wednesday.

Four more people were confirmed to have died on Tuesday, the provincial bureau of civil affairs said in a statement. Days of torrential rain have also left at least 14 injured.

A boat carrying five people capsized near the coast in Shenzhen, which borders Hong Kong. Two women on board went missing.

One woman was found dead on Tuesday. Rescuers are still searching for the other woman. After a brief respite on Tuesday, heavy rain, hailstorms and strong gales returned to batter the province on Wednesday and are forecast for two more days, according to the local meteorological center.

Rain and hailstorms from Saturday to Monday affected 68,800 residents in 69 townships in seven cities and forced the relocation of another 3,902 locals by Tuesday, said the provincial bureau of civil affairs.

The disasters have toppled 71 houses and severely damaged another 5,719, the bureau said, adding they have also caused direct economic losses of 199 million yuan (32 million U.S. dollars).

Local authorities have sent funds, clothes and quilts to residents in flooded areas.
Wednesday, 02 April, 2014 at 13:37 (01:37 PM) UTC RSOE

Heavy rain and giant hailstones batter Southern China

(Video credit: Josept Aron)

Published on Apr 1, 2014

At least 21 people have died and four are reported missing after a weekend of heavy rainfall in south China. This is according to China’s Ministry of Civil A.

Hong Kong Observatory

2 Apr 2014:

A trough of low pressure is bringing rain and thunderstorms to the coastal areas of Guangdong. Locally, there were rain and thunderstorms in the evening. More than 10 millimetres of rainfall were recorded over the northeastern part of the New Territories.

 

Weather forecast for tonight and tomorrow

 

Cloudy with rain and squally thunderstorms. Rain will be heavy at times. Temperatures will range between 19 and 21 degrees. Moderate east to northeasterly winds, fresh at first.

 

Outlook : Becoming bright on Friday and Saturday. There will be thundery showers again early next week.

Chinese:

中國:廣東省風暴保留至少15人死亡,至少14人受傷, 4人失踪,更因雨 – 020414 1455z
2014年4月2日由Goaty新聞

從中國南部的廣東省暴雨造成的死亡人數已上升至15 ,而其他四人仍然失踪,當地政府在星期三說。

四個越來越多的人被證實在週二已經死亡,民政省局在一份聲明中說。連日暴雨還造成至少14人受傷。

一艘載有五人在深圳,毗鄰香港的傾覆海岸附近。兩個女人在船上失踪。

一名女子被發現死在週二。救援人員仍在尋找其他的女人。週二短暫的喘息之後,大雨,冰雹和強風回到連擊全省在週三和兩天預計,根據當地的氣象中心。

雨和冰雹從週六到週一受影響的68,800居民中69個鄉鎮七個城市和強迫的另一個3,902當地人週二搬遷,說民政省局。

在災害倒塌房屋71也嚴重損害另一個5,719 ,局裡補充說,他們還造成1.99億元(32億美元)的直接經濟損失。

地方當局已派出基金,衣服和被子給災區居民。
週三, 2014年4月2日13:37 (下午1時37分) UTC RSOE
大雨和冰雹巨人麵糊中國南方

(視頻來源: Josept阿隆)

發表於2014年4月1日

至少有21人死亡和四個報告後,強降雨在中國南方的一個週末失踪。這是根據中國的民政部A的

香港天文台

2014年4月2日:

的低壓槽帶來雷雨廣東的沿海地區。在當地,有雨和雷暴在晚上。被記錄在新界東北部超過10毫米雨量。

今晚及明日天氣預測

多雲有雨及狂風雷暴。雨水將雨勢有時頗大。氣溫將19和21度之間的範圍。中度東到東北風,新鮮在第一。

展望:上週五和週六成為光明的。下週初將有雷雨了。

China/Vietnam/Philippines: Tropical Storm 1330 Haiyan 110900Z 22.6N 107.6E, moving N at 9knots(JMA) weakening across S China; New storm for PH – 111113 1010Z

Tropical Storm 1330 Haiyan (JMA)

TROPICAL STORM 31W (HAIYAN)
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 31W (JTWC)

Yolanda in the Philippines

TYPHOON YOLANDA IS NOW OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY(PAR) – PAGASA

Haiyan quickly weakening out across southern China. This storm a shell of its former self is still bringing the risk of heavy rainfall and gusty winds to china through mid-week

Philippines Beware!

Tropical Depression Zoraida (Podul) set to impact Haiyan devastated areas; expected to make a landfall in northern Mindanao by Tuesday morning.”

Westernpacificweather

(Scroll down for Filipino, Vietnamese and Chinese translations)

(向下滾動,菲律賓人,越南人和中國翻譯)

(Di chuyển xuống cho Philippines, Việt Nam và bản dịch tiếng Trung Quốc)

(Mag-scroll pababa para sa Filipino, Vietnamese at Chinese translation)

(Check out comments at bottom of page for updates between postings)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1330

TS 1330 (HAIYAN)
Issued at 09:50 UTC, 11 November 2013

<Analyses at 11/09 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N2235′(22.6)
E10735′(107.6)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 12/09 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N2400′(24.0)
E10755′(107.9)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 1008hPa
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

Unit:

1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

VIETNAM

Vietnam political map

(Image: geology.com) Vietnam political map

VIETNAM NATIONAL CENTRE FOR HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTING

Tropical depression warning
TC TRACKS
Tropical depression warning

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

13 Monday, November 11, 2013 4.8 132.5 TD 56 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

13 Tuesday, November 12, 2013 8.3 123.3 TS 65 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:30 PM Monday, November 11, 2013
Satellite Imagery

PHILIPPINES

National Disaster and Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) hotlines

(02) 911-1406, (02) 912-2665, (02) 912-5668, (02) 911-1873, (02) 912-3046, Trunkline: 911-5061 to 64

Philippine National Police (PNP) Hotline Patrol

117 or send TXT PNP to 2920

Bureau of Fire Protection (NCR)

117, (02) 729-5166, (02) 410-6319 (Regional Director, Information Desk)

Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC) Central hotline

7890 or (02) 726-6255

Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA)

136, 882-0925 (flood control)

Trunkline: (02) 882-4150-77 loc. 337 (rescue), 255 (Metrobase)

Metrobase: 882-0860

Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH)

(02) 304-3713, (02) 304-3904

Red Cross hotline

143, (02) 527-0000, (02) 527-8385 to 95

North Luzon Expressway (NLEx) hotlines

(02) 3-5000 and (02) 580-8910

North Luzon Expressway (NLEx) hotlines

(02) 3-5000 and (02) 580-8910

Subic-Clark-Tarlac Expressway (SCTEX) hotlines

(0920) 96-SCTEX (72839) (traffic hotline) or (045) 459-0522

Skyway System Hotline

(02) 776-7777, 0917-539-8762 (globe), 0999-886-0893 (smart), 0932-854-6980 (sun)

South Luzon Expressway (SLEx) hotline

Trunklines: (049) 508-7509, (02) 584-4389, (02) 584-4605, (02) 584-4605, (02) 584-4654, (049) 502-8956 (Laguna)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) hotline

(02) 433-8526

Philippine Coast Guard

Trunkline: (02) 527-8481, (02) 527-3877, 0917-724-3682 (globe), 0917-PCG-DOTC (globe)

Manila Water Hotline

1627

PHIVOLCS

Trunkline: (02) 426-1468 to 79, local 124/125 (emergency);

Text/call: 0905-313-4077 (globe)

Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD)

Trunkline: (632)931-81-01 to 07, local 426 or 425 (Disaster Response Unit); (02) 951-7119; Pasay Office Hotline: 851-2681, 511-1259

Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines (CAAP)

(02) 879-9113

Manila International Airport Authority (MIAA)

0917-TEXNAIA (8396242)

Clark International Airport Corporation (CIAC)

(045) 499-1468

Mactan-Cebu International Airport (MCIAA)

(032) 340-2486

Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB)

(02) 542-5234

0998-1285717

0927-3549515

Maritime Industry Authority (MARINA)

0917-SUMBONG (7862664)

Land Transportation Office (LTO)

TextLTO – Text LTOHELP to 2600 (all mobile networks).

(02) 922-9061 to 66

Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board (LTFRB)

(02) 426-2515

0921-4487777

CAVITEX

02) 825- 4004

0942-8228489

Southern Tagalog Arterial Road (S.T.A.R tollway)

(043) 756- 7870

0917-5117827

0908- 5117827

Philippine National Railways (PNR)

(02) 319-0044

Light Rail Transit Authority (LRTA)

(02) 854-0452

0915-8027295

0908-8559121

Metro Rail Transit (DOTC-MRT3)

(02) 924-0054

(02) 929-5347

Office for Transportation Security (OTS)

0919-9999OTS (687)

(02) 853-5249

Local government units (partial)

Manila Traffic Hotline – 527-3087 (Frontdesk); 527-3088 (Traffic Investigation); 527-3065
Cainta Traffic Hotline – 646-0044
Las Piñas Traffic – 874-5756 (Main), 874-3927 (Investigations), 874-5754 (Traffic), 874-5753 (Anti-vending)
Mandaluyong Hotline – 534-2993 (traffic); 533-2225 (Command Control Center)
Marikina STOC – 646-1651, (02) 646-1633 (traffic)
Pasig Traffic – 643-0000 (Command Control Center); 643-1111; 641-1907 (Traffic)
Makati Public Safety Dept – 844-3146, 819-3270 to 71

Other Local Government Units (links to Local Government Academy website)

Typhoon Yolanda Relief, search & rescue efforts (link)

PAGASA-DOSTPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST) Quezon City, PHILIPPINES

(All time for Pagasa is PHT unless stated otherwise)

Severe Weather Bulletin Number Twelve (FINAL)
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon #YolandaPH (HAIYAN)
Issued at 3:30 PM, 09 November 2013

TYPHOON YOLANDA IS NOW OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY(PAR).

Location of eye/center: At 3:00 PM today, the eye of Typhoon “YOLANDA” was located based on all available data at 722 km West of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro (13.6°N, 114.5°E).

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 185 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 220 kph.

Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 35 kph.

Forecast Position: Typhoon YOLANDA is expected to be at 943 km West Northwest of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro this evening.

• All Public Warning Signals are now lowered. However, sea travel is risky over the seaboards of Luzon,

and over the eastern and western seaboard of Visayas.
• With this development, this is the final weather bulletin for this weather disturbance.

For more information and queries, log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph or please call at telephone numbers 927-1335 and 927-2877

For more information and queries, log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph or please call at telephone numbers 927-1335 and 927-2877

Typhoon Yolanda highest predicted storm surge and tide
Click herenoah.dost.gov.ph

Weekly Outlook

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/31W_061130sair.jpghttps://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp3113.gif

WTPN33 PGTW 110300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR 032
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 31W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
110000Z — NEAR 21.8N 107.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 107.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 23.3N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 24.1N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 24.5N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 107.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM
NORTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TS 31W IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS FURTHER
INLAND WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS). THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON THE
RJTD DVORAK FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES (55/65 KNOTS).
TS 31W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, WHICH IS QUICKLY ERODING DUE TO STRENGTHENING MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CHINA. TS 31W IS FORECAST TO TURN
EASTWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. BASED ON THE TIGHT
AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODELS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Nov, 2013 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm HAIYAN (31W) currently located near 21.8 N 107.2 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

(Image: TSR)

Other Reports

Tropical Depression Zoraida set to impact Haiyan devastated areas Monday Update

Published on November 11, 2013 by // Westernpacificweather

Tropical Depression Zoraida and what is expected to be internationally named Podul has formed south east of the Philippines today and is expected to make a landfall in northern Mindanao by Tuesday morning. This new storm system by no means will be what we would call a severe tropical system. But its timing could not be a worst time. Thus making it very dangerous.

The forecast today suggest Zoraida will remain a weak Tropical Storm as it comes on shore but but the center line in the image below is not where the worst of the weather will be. This will likely be farther north where strong easterly winds will usher in a shot of heavy rainfall and gale force winds near the coast on Tuesday.

PAGASA TRACK

PAGASA TRACK

As already suggested on any normal day this would not be to bad, but with the infrastructure basically non-existant in eastern Visayas, any form of foul weather could pose a serious risk to those who have been left homeless following Haiyan.

At least 13,000,000 people are said to have been effected by Haiyan and the death toll is believed to rise well over 10,000. This would make it the deadly storm to ever hit the Philippines. Nearly double that of Rosing from 1991.

International assistance has already started to filter in as numerous countries are pooling resources to help the millions impacted. President Obama has stated he will provide as much resources as needed. (Yet the Aircraft Carrier USS George Washington remains in port only hundreds of miles away from the Philippines in Hong Kong. )

View image on Twitter

U.S. Marines arrive in the Philippines at the request of the Philippine Government – @PacificCommand

Below is a banner to help donate to the Philippine Red Cross. Please if you have a moment click it and check out what you can do to help.

As for now Typhoon Haiyan is quickly weakening out across southern China. This storm a shell of its former self is still bringing the risk of heavy rainfall and gusty winds to china through mid-week.

For more radar images and weather updates from China, please click HERE


PLEASE CLICK IMAGE TO DONATE to Philippine Red Cross

Westernpacificweather

Tropical Depression Zoraida forming southeast of the Philippines, may hamper recovery efforts

Published on November 11, 2013 by // Westernpacificweather

JMA and PAGASA are currently warning on Tropical Depression Zoraida, about 300 km south of Palau. Models project this system to slowly develop over the next couple of days before impacting the Caraga region of Mindanao as well as the Visayas. While the forecast intensity is nothing compared to Yolanda, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to hamper recovery efforts from both Yolanda and the Bohol earthquake.

One thing slowing the development of this system is the low latitude at which it formed. Currently just south of 5 N, Coriolisan effect caused by the rotation of the Earth and help increase the spin of developing low pressure areasis very limited and is hindering rapid development. However, ocean waters and atmospheric conditions remain favorable for development. Therefore, the consensus is a tropical storm to impact the central Philippines. Although a tropical storm, those winds can further devastate impaired infrastructure in this region.

If this system is upgraded by JMA to a tropical storm, it would received the North Korean name Podul meaning willow tree.

Well continue to monitor the progress on Zoraida. Stay tuned

Typhoon Haiyan Photo and Video Gallery

Published on November 8, 2013 by

Typhoon Haiyan continues to devastate areas of the Central Philippines today after making landfall with winds that are estimated to be higher than 300kph in the center of the storm. The images and video below will be updated throughout the day. They are not ours to own but retrieved from people on the ground ahead

Read More…

- Westernpacificweather

Supertyphoon Yolanda

CAAP waives fees for all humanitarian flights; Cebu Pacific sets flight schedules, options

The Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines (CAAP) has issued a Memorandum Circular exempting from fees and charges all airlines while mounting humanitarian flights for victims of super typhoon ‘Yolanda.’

Higher prices expected after ‘Yolanda’ cut through heart of PH sugarland

The government expects the price of sugar to increase after Typhoon ‘Yolanda’ cut through the Visayas, considered the heartland of the Philippine sugar industry.

WALANG PASOK | Class Suspensions for Monday, November 11, onward

MANILA, Philippines–The following LGUs and areas have cancelled classes beginning Monday, November 11, in the aftermath of supertyphoon “Yolanda”. This page will constantly be updated as more information and announcements arrive.

Commercial flights resume in parts of typhoon-hit Visayas

The country’s airlines on Monday resumed some of their flights in the Visayas, three days after Typhoon ‘Yolanda’ struck the country.

Supply of consumer goods for typhoon-hit Leyte ample, says DTI

The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) said consumers in typhoon-ravaged Leyte have sufficient supply of basic commodities.

What Tacloban ‘walkout’? PNoy aides say President merely took ‘bathroom break’

Malacanang officials on Sunday evening denied that President Aquino had angrily walked out of a briefing in typhoon-battered Tacloban, with one close aide saying all the media fuss was about nothing more than the Chief Executive taking a ‘bathroom break’.

#ReliefPH | How others are helping, and how you can, too

‘Tis the season for giving, and not just because Christmas is near.

De Lima: Instead of martial law, a strong option is declaration of a state of emergency and calamity

The Philippines’ Justice Secretary ruled out declaring martial law in Tacloban City and other areas where survivors of typhoon Yolanda have resorted to looting after reported shortages of food and water.

LOOKING FOR PEOPLE? | After Yolanda’s onslaught, Google offers ‘Person Finder’ website

Google is once again offering its Person Finder service for people looking for loved ones in areas devastated by supertyphoon “Yolanda”.

Smart, Sun restore cellular services in Tacloban

In a statement from the PLDT group, Smart and Sun Cellular have restored cellular services in Tacloban and other sites, and at the same time continuous to offer Libreng Tawag in affected areas. Smart Communications, Inc. (Smart) is now up

BAYANIHAN | Bicol, Butuan execs leave for Samar, Leyte for clearing, restoration, medical ops

Various government officials and personnel from Bicol and Butuan left for Samar and Leyte to help in the clearing, restoration, and medical operations.

Survivors hid in caves but Yolanda still left more than 300 dead in two Samar towns

More than 300 were confirmed dead in the coastal towns of Basey and Marabut, with nearly all homes and other structures–including evacuation centers–damaged by Super typhoon Yolanda, the Samar Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (PDRRMC) said.

Our hearts are with the Filipino people, IMF Managing Director says after Yolanda disaster

The managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has expressed her sadness after learning about the devastation wrought by typhoon Yolanda (international name: Haiyan).

State of calamity declaration sought in Yolanda-hit cities, provinces for easy foreign aid entry

The Philippine Senate has urged President Benigno Aquino III to declare a state of calamity in 10 provinces and 10 cities that comprise Regions 7 and 8 ravaged by the super typhoon Yolanda.

DOH says no to mass burial for Yolanda victims sans identification

There should be no mass burial of victims of super typhoon Yolanda until after they have been identified, the Department of Health said Monday.

Tacloban ‘calms down’ as PNP sends 800 cops and provincial board declares state of emergency

The city appears to have calmed down after Philippine National Police (PNP) sent two battalions of elite forces to the cities of Tacloban and Ormoc where lootings have been reported in the wake of the super typhoon Yolanda, and after the provincial board has declared a “state of emergency” in Leyte.

PH stock market plummets on fears economy to take a hit from ‘Yolanda’

(UPDATED 4:13 p.m.) Philippine share prices plunged on Monday, extending losses to a seventh session, as investors digested the impact of Super Typhoon “Yolanda” on the economy.

Coron running out of rice – mayor

The tourist town of Coron in Palawan is running out food, particularly rice, its mayor said.

Unscathed, Galoc oil field resumes operations after ‘Yolanda’ exits

The Philippines’ only commercially producing oil field survived typhoon �Yolanda’ unscathed, its operator said today.

Tacloban airport partially opens, as CAAP lifts flight ban on all domestic airports – CAAP

The Tacloban domestic airport (or the Daniel Z. Romualdez Airport) is partially open as the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines (CAAP) lifted on Monday the notice to airman (NOTAM) on all domestic airports following Friday’s landfall of super typhoon Yolanda.

Disaster experts to PH: Learn from 2004 tsunami relief efforts

Disaster experts warned Monday that mistakes made in the relief effort after the catastrophic 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami must not be repeated with the super typhoon that has smashed the Philippines.

50,000 lost homes in Roxas City – councilor

About 50,000 people have lost their homes in Roxas City, Capiz, councilor Mark Ortiz said Monday.

With 10 of 40 towns reporting, Leyte tallies 1,563 deaths so far

The Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (PDRRMC) of Leyte on Monday reported a total of 1,563 deaths as search and retrieval for the missing and other victims continue.

VIDEO | TV5 crew films Yolanda’s fury in Guiuan – and disintegration of their own refuge

A Rescue5 Team of News5 was in Guiuan, Eastern Samar, as Typhoon Yolanda made landfall on Saturday. Taking shelter with a group of residents, the crew was able to capture the slow destruction of their own place of refuge – and then the first scenes of Guiuan’s fate, the morning after.

Power, water supply back to normal in Bohol

Power and water supply were restored in Bohol on Sunday after the entire province was placed in darkness for two-and-a-half days when super typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) damaged two towers of the Ormoc-Maasin 138-kv line of the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP).

‘Yolanda’ kicks out Chinese from Ayungin Reef, Philippine Marines on grounded ship safe

Super typhoon Yolanda has sent home Chinese maritime and Navy vessels at the Ayungin Reef in Palawan, while the half a dozen Philippine Marines on board a rusting and grounded World War II-era ship are safe, a source told InterAksyon.com.

CALL YOUR FAMILY | In aftermath of Yolanda, Viber offers free calls abroad, even to non-Viber users

In the aftermath of Typhoon Yolanda, Internet messaging service Viber on Monday announced a ‘temporary’ service ‘allowing Filipino users to call regular (non-Viber) numbers outside of the Philippines for free.’

2 international, 32 domestic flights remain canceled in aftermath of ‘Yolanda’

Thirty-four flights have been canceled Monday as a result of the devastation brought about by super typhoon Yolanda, the Manila International Airport Authority (MIAA) Media Affairs Division (MAD) said.

WANTED | Roxas appeals for chainsaws, backhoes for road-clearing, as well as medical volunteers

Roads have yet to be completely cleared of debris for relief goods to be quickly delivered to areas hardest hit by typhoon Yolanda so that lootings from business establishments by hungry residents can be averted, Interior Secretary Mar Roxas said on Monday.

Communications restored in many areas in W. Visayas but still spotty in E. Visayas – NDRRMC

Communications facilities have been restored in many areas hit by super typhoon Yolanda but still remains a problem in the Eastern Visayas, the National Disaster and Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC) said Monday.

Typhoon Haiyan: Philippines destruction ‘absolute bedlam’

BBC

(Video credit: ) ”We are so very hungry and thirsty” one survivor told the BBC’s Jon Donnison in Tacloban

Tacloban has been flattened. Driving down the main high street, hardly a single building is left standing.

People say this town was hit by a wall of water when the typhoon hit on Friday. There is the stench of rotting corpses. Driving in from the airport, we saw scores of bodies lying by the roadside. For three days they have been there, with no one to bury them.

People are desperate for food, clean water and shelter. At the badly battered airport, a makeshift hospital has been set up. We saw two young women giving birth, laid out among the debris.

Aid is getting in, but slowly. And this is just one town, in one province. No-one knows the full extent of the devastation elsewhere.

The head of the Red Cross in the Philippines has described the devastation caused by Typhoon Haiyan as “absolute bedlam”.

Officials estimate up to 10,000 people have died in Tacloban city and hundreds elsewhere. Hundreds of thousands of people are displaced.

The typhoon flattened homes, schools and an airport.

It has since made landfall in northern Vietnam, near the Chinese border, where it has weakened to a tropical storm.

Supplies

Four million people have been affected in the Philippines, and many are now struggling to survive without food, shelter or clean drinking water.

A huge international relief effort is under way, but rescue workers have struggled to reach some towns and villages cut off since the storm.

“There’s an awful lot of casualties, a lot of people dead all over the place, a lot of destruction,” Richard Gordon, head of the Philippine Red Cross, told the BBC.

“It’s absolute bedlam right now, but hopefully it will turn out better as more and more supplies get into the area.”

He said roads had now been cleared to allow relief workers to get to the hardest hit areas, but that they expected to find many more casualties.

“It’s only now that they were able to get in and we’re beginning just to bring in the necessary food items… as well as water and other things that they need.”

Forecasters predicted a tropical depression would move into the south and central Philippines on Tuesday, potentially bringing heavy rains that would further hamper relief efforts.

Volunteers from the Search and Rescue Unit Foundation filmed aerial views of the damage

Jane Cocking, the humanitarian director for Oxfam, said her colleagues witnessed “complete devastation… entire parts of the coastline just disappeared, and sizable trees just bent over and [were] thrown about like matchsticks.”

The latest report from the Philippines’ Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council confirmed 255 deaths as of 22:00 GMT on Sunday. It said almost 630,000 people had been reported displaced.

But officials have warned that the number of dead will rise significantly.

Destroyed houses hit by Typhoon Haiyan in the town of Guiuan in Eastern Samar province, central Philippines on 11 November 2013 Three days after Typhoon Haiyan hit, aerial photos are revealing a scene of apocalyptic devastation along a swathe of the central Philippines.
Cargo ships washed ashore are seen four days after super typhoon Haiyan hit Anibong town, Tacloban city, central Philippines November 11, 2013. Among the hardest hit places was the city of Tacloban, where the ferocity of the storm waves swept this ship ashore.
A 21-year-old woman  lies exhausted on the debris-covered floor at a makeshift medical facility in Tacloban after giving birth to a baby girl A 21-year-old woman lies exhausted on the debris-covered floor at a makeshift medical facility in Tacloban after giving birth to a baby girl. The storm surge swept away her mother.
Philippine and US military personnel load relief goods for Tacloban on board a US C-130 plane for victims of Super Typhoon Haiyan that hit the central Philippines, at a military base in Manila on 11 November 2013 In Manila, Philippine and US military personnel load relief goods for Tacloban. International rescue teams are heading for the area.
A tourist boat is seen sinking in Ha Long Bay, Vietnam on 11 November 2013 The typhoon – now downgraded to a tropical storm – has reached Vietnam, where hundreds of thousands of people have been evacuated.

‘Unprecedented’ storm

Typhoon Haiyan – one of the most powerful storms on record to make landfall – swept through six central Philippine islands on Friday.

It brought sustained winds of 235km/h (147mph), with gusts of 275 km/h (170 mph), with waves as high as 15m (45ft), bringing up to 400mm (15.75 inches) of rain in places.

“The world has not seen a storm like this before,” said Senen Mangalile, the Philippines Consul General to the UK.

The world has not seen a storm like this before

Senen Mangalile Philippines Consul General to the UK

Steven Godby, a disaster management expert at Nottingham Trent University, told the BBC the typhoon was “probably the most intense and strongest storm of this type to make landfall”.

“We’ve seen storms like this perhaps on rare occasions that have had that kind of intensity out at sea but for it to come ashore with that kind of strength is almost unprecedented,” Dr Godby said.

American military aircraft and ships are being deployed to provide help. US President Barack Obama has issued a message saying he was “deeply saddened by the loss of life and extensive damage”.

Other countries have also pledged millions of dollars in assistance. Australia has approved $9m in humanitarian aid to the Philippines, while New Zealand has pledged over $1m.

Kristalina Georgieva, the EU humanitarian aid commissioner, said relief efforts would be guided by three priorities.

Deadly typhoons

  • Sept 1937 Hong Kong typhoon – 11,000 dead
  • Sept 1959 Typhoon Vera – deadliest to hit Japan, killing 5,238 people
  • Aug 1975 Typhoon Nina – about 229,000 die in China after collapse of Banqiao dam
  • Nov 1991 Typhoon Thelma – deadliest in the Philippines to date, killing 5-8,000

“The first one is to get access to remote areas as quickly as possible, and the access issue is both transportation and also restoring telecommunications,” she said

“The second, of course, is to get the immediate humanitarian assistance for people affected by this kind of disaster. And the next one would be shelter.”

The relief efforts are being focused on the eastern province of Leyte and its capital Tacloban, where a massive storm surge flattened houses.

The typhoon – named “Yolanda” by Filipino authorities – wrecked up to 80% of structures in its path, police chief superintendent Elmer Soria told reporters.

Officials said looting was widespread and order was proving difficult to enforce.

Military spokesman Lt Col Ramon Zagala said that 100 soldiers had been deployed to help police prevent looting in Tacloban, AFP news agency reported.

Philippine President Benigno Aquino said there was a possibility that martial law or a state of emergency would be declared in the city.

In some areas, the dead are being buried in mass graves.

Typhoon Haiyan has now made landfall in Vietnam, near the tourist destination of Ha Long Bay, with sustained winds of up to 140 km/h (85mph).

Some 600,000 people were evacuated in northern provinces of the country.

Map

Related Stories

Videos

Typhoon Haiyan hits Vietnam and moves towards southern China

(Video credit: ITN)

Published on Nov 11, 2013
Typhoon Haiyan has made landfall in northern Vietnam as a tropical storm, after leaving massive destruction in the Philippines. Report by Sarah Kerr.

Typhoon Haiyan: 12 rescued after ships stranded in China

(Video credit: ITN)

Published on Nov 11, 2013
Twelve crew members off two ships that lost control of their anchors in south China’s Hainan province have been rescued following typhoon Haiyan. Report by Sarah Kerr.

MARITIME

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP22 RJTD 110600

WARNING 110600.

WARNING VALID 120600.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

GALE WARNING.

TROPICAL STORM 1330 HAIYAN (1330) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL

STORM 996 HPA

AT 22.3N 107.4E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.

POSITION GOOD.

MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 23.0N 107.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

1002 HPA.

BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 23.7N 107.0E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

1008 HPA.

BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Filipino (Translated by Google)

China / Vietnam / Pilipinas : Tropical Storm 1330 Haiyan 101500Z 22.6N 107.6E , gumagalaw N sa 9knots ( JMA ) pagpapahina sa buong S China ; Bagong bagyo para sa PH – 111,113 1010Z

Tropical Storm 1330 Haiyan ( JMA )
Tropical Storm 31W ( HAIYAN )
Downgrade MULA Typhoon 31W ( JTWC )
Yolanda sa Pilipinas

Typhoon YOLANDA NGAYON AY LABAS NG PHILIPPINE lugar ng PANANAGUTAN ( par ) – PAGASA

” Haiyan mabilis pagpapahina out sa buong timog China . Ang bagyo ang shell ng kanyang dating sarili pa rin ang nagdadala ng panganib ng mabigat na pag-ulan at pabugso-bugso na hangin sa china sa pamamagitan ng kalagitnaan ng linggo ”
Mag-ingat sa Pilipinas !
Tropical Depression Zoraida ( Podul ) nakatakda sa makaapekto sa Haiyan devastated lugar ; inaasahan upang gumawa ng pagtanaw sa lupain sa hilagang Mindanao sa pamamagitan ng Martes umaga ” .

Westernpacificweather

( Mag-scroll pababa para sa Filipino, Vietnamese at Chinese translation )

(向下 滚动,菲律宾 人,越南人 和 中国 翻译)

( Di chuyển xuống Cho Pilipinas , Việt Nam va ban dịch Tiếng Trung Quốc )

( Rebista – scroll pababa Para Sa Filipino, Vietnamese sa Chinese translation )

( Tingnan ang mga komento sa ibaba ng pahina para sa mga update sa pagitan ng mga pag-post )

( Image: wunderground.com ) 5 Araw na Pagtataya ( I-click ang larawan para sa pinagmulan )

( Image: wunderground.com ) Satellite ( I-click ang larawan para sa pinagmulan )

Japan meteorolohiko ahensiya
1330
TS 1330 ( HAIYAN )
Ibinigay sa 09:50 UTC , 11 Nobyembre 2013
<Analyses Sa 9/11 UTC>
Scale –
intensity –
Center posisyon N22 35 ‘( 22.6 )
E107 35 ‘( 107.6 )
Direksyon at ang bilis ng paggalaw N 15km / h ( 9kt )
Central presyon 1000hPa
Maximum na napapanatiling hangin bilis 18m / s ( 35kt )
Maximum na hangin bugso ng hangin bilis 25m / s ( 50kt )
Lugar ng 30kt hangin o higit pa NE280km ( 150NM )
SW220km ( 120NM )
<Forecast Para 09/12 UTC>
intensity –
td
Center posisyon ng probabilidad bilog N24 00 ‘( 24.0 )
E107 55 ‘( 107.9 )
Direksyon at ang bilis ng paggalaw N mabagal
Central presyon 1008hPa
Ang radius ng bilog na posibilidad 160km ( 85NM )
Unit :

1KT ( umpukan ) = 1.852 km / h = 0.5144 m / s
1NM ( nauukol sa dagat milya ) = 1.852 km
Byetnam

Vietnam pampulitika mapa

( Image: geology.com ) Vietnam pampulitika mapa
Vietnam Pambansang Centre para sa Hydro – meteorolohiko PAGTATAYA
Tropical depression babala
TC mga track

Tropical depression babala

Pagsusuri ng mga posisyon at Intensities

Lokal na oras (GMT 7 )

petsa

posisyon

pag-uuri

Maximum na napapanatiling hangin
13 Lunes, Nobyembre 11, 2013 4.8 132.5 td 56 km / oras

Pagtataya sa mga posisyon at Intensities

Lokal na oras (GMT 7 )

petsa

posisyon

pag-uuri

Maximum na napapanatiling hangin
13 Martes, Nobyembre 12, 2013 8.3 123.3 TS 65 km / oras
Tala para sa litrato:
Pook ng probabilidad wind mas mataas sa 6 Beauforts
Pook ng probabilidad wind mas malaki kaysa sa 10 Beauforts
Mga posibleng pagpasa lugar ng TC center
Nakalipas na posisyon ng TC
Pagtataya sa mga posisyon ng TC
Nakalipas na posisyon ng td
Pagtataya sa mga posisyon ng td
* Ang susunod na Pagtataya sa Track Map ay ibinigay ng 09:30 Lunes, Nobyembre 11, 2013
satellite Imagery

PILIPINAS
Emergency Hotlines
Nai-publish : Abril 4, 2012 . Pinakabagong update: Oktubre 30, 2013 .

Pambansang Disaster at Panganib pagbabawas at Management Council ( NDRRMC ) hotlines

(02) 911-1406 , (02) 912-2665 , (02) 912-5668 , (02) 911-1873 , (02) 912-3046 , Trunkline : 911-5061 sa 64

Philippine Pambansang Pulisya ( PNP ) Hotline patrol

117 o pagpapadala TXT PNP upang 2920

Bureau ng Fire Protection ( NCR )

117 , (02) 729-5166 , (02) 410-6319 ( Regional Director , Information Desk )

Kagawaran ng Transportasyon at Komunikasyon ( DOTC ) Central hotline

7890 o (02) 726-6255

Metro Manila Development Authority ( MMDA )

136 , 882-0925 ( baha kontrol)

Trunkline : (02) 882-4150 -77 loc . 337 ( Pagsagip ) , 255 ( Metrobase )

Metrobase : 882-0860

Kagawaran ng Pampublikong Works at Highways ( DPWH )

(02) 304-3713 , (02) 304-3904

Red Cross hotline

143 , (02) 527-0000 , (02) 527-8385 sa 95

North Luzon Expressway ( NLEx ) hotlines

(02) at 3-5000 (02) 580-8910

North Luzon Expressway ( NLEx ) hotlines

(02) at 3-5000 (02) 580-8910

Subic – Clark – Tarlac Expressway ( SCTEX ) hotlines

( 0920 ) 96 – SCTEX ( 72,839 ) ( trapiko hotline ) o ( 045 ) 459-0522

Skyway System Hotline

(02) 776-7777 , 0917-539-8762 ( globe ) , 0999-886-0893 ( matalino ) , 0932-854-6980 ( sun )

South Luzon Expressway ( SLEx ) hotline

Trunklines : (049) 508-7509 , (02) 584-4389 , (02) 584-4605 , (02) 584-4605 , (02) 584-4654 , (049) 502-8956 ( Laguna )

Philippine Atmospheric , geopisiko at Astronomical Services Administration ( PAGASA ) hotline

(02) 433-8526

Philippine Coast Guard

Trunkline : (02) 527-8481 , (02) 527-3877 , 0917-724-3682 ( globe ) , 0917 – PCG – DOTC ( globo )

Manila Water Hotline

1627

PHIVOLCS

Trunkline : (02) 426-1468 sa 79 , lokal 124/125 ( emergency );

Text / call : 0905-313-4077 ( globe )

Department of Social Welfare at Development ( DSWD )

Trunkline : ( 632 ) 931-81-01 sa 07 , lokal 426 o 425 ( Disaster Response Unit ); (02) 951-7119 ; Pasay Office Hotline : 851-2681 , 511-1259

Civil Aviation Authority ng Pilipinas ( CAAP )

(02) 879-9113

Manila International Airport Authority ( MIAA )

0917 – TEXNAIA ( 8,396,242 )

Clark International Airport Corporation ( CIAC )

(045) 499-1468

Mactan-Cebu International Airport ( MCIAA )

(032) 340-2486

Civil eronautika Board ( CAB )

(02) 542-5234

0998-1285717

0927-3549515

Maritime Industry Authority ( Marina )

0917 – SUMBONG ( 7,862,664 )

Land Transportasyon Office ( LTO )

TextLTO ” Text LTOHELP sa 2600 (lahat ng mga mobile network ) .

(02) 922-9061 sa 66

Land Transportasyon Franchising at kontrol na mga Board ( LTFRB )

(02) 426-2515

0921-4487777

CAVITEX

02) 825-4004

0942-8228489

Southern Tagalog arterial Road ( S.T.A.R tollway )

( 043 ) 756-7870

0917-5117827

0908-5,117,827

Philippine Pambansang Riles ( PNR )

(02) 319-0044

Light Rail Transit Authority ( LRTA )

(02) 854-0452

0915-8027295

0908-8559121

Metro Rail Transit ( DOTC – MRT3 )

(02) 924-0054

(02) 929-5347

Opisina para sa Transportasyon Security ( OTS )

0919 – 9999OTS ( 687 )

(02) 853-5249

Lokal na pamahalaan unit ( partial )

Manila Traffic Hotline ” 527 – 3087 ( Frontdesk ); 527-3088 ( Traffic Pagsisiyasat ); 527-3065
Cainta Traffic Hotline ” 646-0044
Las Pia bilang Traffic ” 874-5756 (Pangunahin) , 874-3927 ( Pagsisiyasat ) , 874-5754 ( Traffic ) , 874-5753 ( Anti- Vending )
Mandaluyong Hotline ” 534-2993 ( trapiko ); 533-2225 ( Command Control Center)
Marikina STOC ” 646-1651 , (02) 646-1633 ( trapiko )
Pasig Traffic ” 643-0000 ( Command Control Center ); 643-1111 ; 641-1907 ( Traffic )
Makati Public Safety Dept ” 844-3146 , 819-3270 sa 71

Iba pang mga Lokal na Pamahalaan ng Units ( mga link sa mga Lokal na Pamahalaan ng website Academy )
Typhoon Yolanda Relief , paghahanap & Pagsagip pagsusumikap (link)
PAGASA – DOSTPhilippine Atmospheric , geopisiko at Astronomical Services Administration ( PAGASA – DOST ) Quezon City , PILIPINAS

( Lahat ng oras para sa Pagasa ay PHT maliban kung ipinahayag kung hindi man )

Matinding Weather Bulletin Number Twelve ( Final )
Tropical bagyo Babala: Typhoon # YolandaPH ( HAIYAN )
Ibinigay sa 03:30 , Nobyembre 9, 2013

Typhoon YOLANDA NGAYON AY LABAS NG PHILIPPINE lugar ng PANANAGUTAN ( par ) .

Lokasyon ng mata / center : Sa 03:00 ngayon , ang mata ng Typhoon YOLANDA ay matatagpuan batay sa lahat ng magagamit na data sa 722 kilometro Kanluran ng San Jose , Occidental Mindoro ( 13.6 N , 114.5 E) .

Lakas : Maximum napapanatiling hangin ng 185 kph malapit sa sentro at gustiness ng hanggang sa 220 kph .

Movement : Pagtataya upang ilipat West Northwest sa 35 kph .

Pagtataya Posisyon: Typhoon YOLANDA ay inaasahang maging sa 943 km West Northwest ng San Jose , Occidental Mindoro ngayong gabi .

Lahat ng Pampublikong Babala signal na ngayon ang binabaan. Gayunpaman , dagat paglalakbay ay delikadong sa ibabaw ng seaboards ng Luzon ,

at sa ibabaw ng eastern at western nasa baybayin ng dagat ng Visayas .
Gamit ang pag-unlad, ito ay ang huling bulletin ng panahon para sa gulo na ito panahon .

Para sa karagdagang impormasyon at mga query , mag-log on sa http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph o mangyaring tumawag sa mga numero ng telepono 927-1335 at 927-2877

Para sa karagdagang impormasyon at mga query , mag-log on sa http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph o mangyaring tumawag sa mga numero ng telepono 927-1335 at 927-2877

Typhoon Yolanda pinakamataas na hinulaang bagyo paggulong ng alon at tide
Mag-click dito … noah.dost.gov.ph

Lingguhan Outlook
Pinagsamang Typhoon Warning Center ( JTWC )

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN33 PGTW 110,300

MSGID / GENADMIN / joint Typhoon WRNCEN Pearl Harbor HI / /
Paksa / tropikal na bagyo BABALA / /
RMKS /
1 . Tropical Storm 31W ( HAIYAN ) BABALA NR 032
Downgrade MULA Typhoon 31W
01 ACTIVE tropikal na bagyo IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX napapanatiling hangin BATAY SA ONE – MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII MAHIGIT SA BISA OPEN WATER ONLY

BABALA POSITION :
110000Z — MALAPIT 21.8N 107.2E
Kilusan NAKARAANG IKAANIM HOURS – 355 DEGREES SA 13 KTS
POSITION TUMPAK SA LOOB 060 NM
POSITION BATAY SA SENTRO NG matatagpuan SATELLITE
IPINAPAKITA WIND pamamahagi:
MAX napapanatiling hangin – 060 KT , GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII MAHIGIT SA BISA OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS isang makabuluhang tropikal na bagyo MAHIGIT lupa
Ulitin ipagpalagay : 21.8N 107.2E

pagtataya :
12 oras , BISA SA :
111200Z — 23.3N 107.9E
MAX napapanatiling hangin – 045 KT , GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII MAHIGIT SA BISA OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS isang makabuluhang tropikal na bagyo MAHIGIT lupa
Vector TO 24 HR ipagpalagay : 055 DEG / 07 KTS

24 oras , BISA SA :
120000Z — 24.1N 109.2E
MAX napapanatiling hangin – 030 KT , GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII MAHIGIT SA BISA OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS isang makabuluhang tropikal na bagyo MAHIGIT lupa
Vector TO 36 HR ipagpalagay : 075 DEG / 08 KTS

36 oras , BISA SA :
121200Z — 24.5N 110.8E
MAX napapanatiling hangin – 020 KT , GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII MAHIGIT SA BISA OPEN WATER ONLY
AS pang-anyaya ng isang makabuluhang tropikal na bagyo MAHIGIT lupa

REMARKS :
110300Z POSITION MALAPIT 22.2N 107.4E .
Tropical Storm ( TS ) 31W ( HAIYAN ) , na matatagpuan sa halos 87 NM
Hilagang-silangan NG Hanoi , Vietnam , AY nasubaybayan pahilaga SA 13 buhol MAHIGIT
SA NAKARAANG IKAANIM HOURS . Animated pinahusay na infrared satellite imagery
Ay nagpapahiwatig na TS 31W AY mabilis na pagpapahina AS IT karagdagang mga track
Inland MAY MGA Bulk NG kombeksyon DISPLACED MAHIGIT hilagang
Semi-circle dahil sa pagtaas ng nasa timog-kanluran VERTICAL WIND
Gupitan (20 TO 25 buhol ) . MAY patas na kumpyansa sa paunang
POSITION . Ang paunang intensity AY tasahin SA 60 buhol BATAY SA MGA
RJTD Dvorak Final -T AT CURRENT intensity pagtatantya ( 55/65 buhol ) .
TS 31W AY TRACKING kahabaan ng Western paligid NG subtropiko
Ridge , NA AY mabilis nagpapaguho dahil sa pagpapalakas MIDLATITUDE
Pakanluran sa buong daloy ng Southern China . TS 31W AY forecast upang i-on
Pasilangan AS ito ay magiging embed sa loob ng daloy pakanluran AT ANG
Pagtataya UPANG mapawi MAHIGIT Land NG Tau 36 . BATAY SA MGA masikip
KASUNDUAN NG dynamic na mga modelo , MAY HIGH tiwala sa JTWC
Forecast track. Ito ay ang panghuling BABALA SA ANG SYSTEM NG
Pinagsamang Typhoon WRNCEN Pearl Harbor HI . ANG SYSTEM AY MAGIGING malapit
Sinusubaybayan PARA senyales ng pagbabagong-buhay . / /
NNNN
TSR logoNW Pacific : Storm Alert na ibinigay sa Nobyembre 11, 2013 00:00 GMT ( Huling Babala )

Tropical Storm HAIYAN ( 31W ) kasalukuyang matatagpuan malapit 21.8 N 107.2 E ay ​​magtaya upang hampasin lupa sa sumusunod na posibilidad ( s ) sa naibigay na oras ng lead (s):

Yellow Alert Bansa (mga) o Probinsya ( s )
Tsina
posibilidad para sa CAT 1 o sa itaas ay 30 % sa kasalukuyan
posibilidad para sa TS ay 100 % sa kasalukuyan
Byetnam
posibilidad para sa CAT 1 o sa itaas ay 30 % sa kasalukuyan
posibilidad para sa TS ay 100 % sa kasalukuyan
Yellow Alert City ( s ) at Town ( s )
Nanning ( 22.8 N , 108.3 E)
posibilidad para sa TS ay 75 % sa loob ng 12 oras
Hanoi ( 21.0 N , 105.8 E)
posibilidad para sa TS ay 55 % sa kasalukuyan

Tandaan na ang
Red Alert ( Matinding ) ay CAT 1 o sa itaas sa pagitan ng 31 % at 100% na posibilidad .
Yellow Alert ( malayog ) ay CAT 1 o sa itaas sa pagitan ng 10 % at 30% na posibilidad , o TS sa itaas 50 % posibilidad .
CAT 1 ay nangangahulugan ng Typhoon hangin lakas ng hindi bababa sa 74 mph , 119 km / h o 64 mga buhol – 1 min matagal .
TS nangangahulugan Tropical Storm hangin lakas ng hindi bababa sa 39 mph , 63 km / h o 34 mga buhol – 1 min matagal .

Para sa mga graphical forecast impormasyon at higit pang mga detalye mangyaring bisitahin http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Bagyo Tagasubaybay ng Mapa

( Image: TSR )
Iba pang Mga Ulat
Tropical Depression Zoraida nakatakda sa makaapekto sa Haiyan devastated lugar Lunes Update

Nai-publish sa Nobyembre 11, 2013 sa pamamagitan ng robspeta / / Westernpacificweather

” Tropical Depression Zoraida at kung ano ang inaasahan na internationally na may pangalang Podul ay nabuo sa timog silangan ng Pilipinas at ngayon ay inaasahang gumawa ng pagtanaw sa lupain sa hilagang Mindanao sa pamamagitan ng Martes umaga . Ang bagong system na bagyo tiyak na hindi magiging kung ano ang gusto naming tumawag sa isang malubhang tropikal na sistema . Ngunit nito tiyempo hindi maaaring maging isang pinakamasama oras . Kaya ginagawang lubhang mapanganib .

Ang forecast ngayon iminumungkahi Zoraida ay mananatiling isang mahinang Tropical Storm bilang ito ay nagmumula sa baybayin ngunit ngunit sa sentro linya sa larawan sa ibaba ay hindi kung saan ang pinakamasama ng panahon ay magiging . Ito ay malamang na maging higit na malayo hilaga kung saan ang malakas na hangin sa araw ng pagkabuhay kalooban magpahayag ng isang shot ng mabigat na pag-ulan at malakas na hangin lakas na hangin malapit sa baybayin sa Martes .

PAGASA track

PAGASA track

Bilang na iminungkahing sa anumang mga normal na araw na ito ay hindi magiging sa masama , subalit may mga imprastraktura talaga non- existant sa eastern Visayas , anumang paraan ng napakarumi ng panahon ay maaaring magpose isang malubhang peligro sa mga taong na- kaliwa walang tirahan sumusunod Haiyan .

Hindi bababa sa 13,000,000 mga tao ay sinabi sa ay nai- maapektuhan sa pamamagitan ng Haiyan at ang kamatayan toll ay pinaniniwalaan na tumaas na rin sa paglipas ng 10,000 . Ito ay gawin itong ang nakamamatay na bagyo sa kailanman pindutin ang pindutan ng Pilipinas . Halos dalawang beses na ng Rosing mula 1991 .

International tulong ay nagsimula upang i-filter sa bilang ng maraming mga bansa ay pooling mapagkukunan upang matulungan ang mga milyon-milyong naapektuhan . Presidente Obama ay nakasaad siya ay magbigay ng maraming mga mapagkukunan tulad ng kinakailangan . ( Ngunit ang Aircraft carrier USS George Washington ay nananatiling sa port lamang ng daan-daang milya ang layo mula sa Pilipinas sa Hong Kong. )

Tingnan ang mga larawan sa Twitter
US Marino dumating sa Pilipinas sa kahilingan ng Philippine Government – @ PacificCommand

Sa ibaba ay isang banner upang makatulong na mag-abuloy sa Philippine Red Cross . Mangyaring kung ikaw ay may ilang sandali ng isang i-click ito at tingnan kung ano ang maaari mong gawin upang makatulong.

Bilang para sa ngayon Typhoon Haiyan ay mabilis na pagpapahina out sa buong timog China . Ang bagyo ang shell ng kanyang dating sarili pa rin ang nagdadala ng panganib ng mabigat na pag-ulan at pabugso-bugso na hangin sa china sa pamamagitan ng kalagitnaan ng linggo .

Para sa higit pang mga larawan radar at taya ng panahon update mula sa Tsina , mangyaring mag-click HERE

MANGYARING CLICK IMAGE TO -donate sa Philippine Red Cross

– Westernpacificweather
Tropical Depression Zoraida na bumubuo ng timog-silangan ng Pilipinas , maaaring makahadlang pagsisikap pagbawi

Nai-publish sa Nobyembre 11, 2013 sa pamamagitan ng Mike Adcock / / Westernpacificweather

JMA at PAGASA ay kasalukuyang babala sa Tropical Depression Zoraida , tungkol sa 300 km timog ng Palau . Mga modelo maipakita ang system na ito upang bumuo ng dahan-dahan sa paglipas ng susunod na ilang mga araw bago nakakaapekto ang Caraga rehiyon ng Mindanao pati na rin ang Visayas . Habang ang forecast intensity ay walang kumpara sa Yolanda , mabigat na pag-ulan at pabugso-bugso hangin ay inaasahan na makaabala pagsusumikap sa pagbawi mula sa parehong mga Yolanda at ang Bohol lindol .

Ang isang bagay na pagbagal sa pag-unlad ng system na ito ay ang mababang latitude sa kung saan ito binuo. Sa kasalukuyan lamang sa timog ng 5 N , Coriolis – isang epekto na sanhi ng pag-ikot ng Earth at makatulong na mapataas ang iikot ng pagbuo ng mababang presyon ng lugar – ay lubos na limitado at hindering ay mabilis na pag-unlad . Gayunpaman , karagatan tubig at atmospheric kondisyon mananatiling kanais-nais na para sa pag-unlad . Samakatuwid , ang pinagkasunduan ay isang tropikal na bagyo upang makaapekto sa gitnang Pilipinas . Kahit isang tropikal na bagyo , ang mga hangin ay maaari pa ganap na sumira kapansanan sa imprastraktura sa rehiyon na ito .

Kung ang sistema na ito ay upgrade na sa pamamagitan ng JMA sa isang tropikal na bagyo , magiging natanggap ang North Korean pangalan ” Podul ” kahulugan wilow tree.

Patuloy naming masubaybayan ang progreso sa Zoraida . Manatiling tono na …

Typhoon Haiyan Larawan at Video Gallery
Nai-publish sa 8 Nobyembre 2013 sa pamamagitan ng robspeta

Typhoon Haiyan ay patuloy na ganap na sumira ng lugar ng Central Pilipinas ngayong araw pagkatapos ng paggawa ng pagtanaw sa lupain na may mga hangin na ay tinatantya upang maging mas mataas kaysa sa 300kph sa gitna ng bagyo . Ang mga imahe at video sa ibaba ay maa-update sa buong araw . Ang mga ito ay hindi atin sa sariling ngunit nabawi mula sa mga tao sa lupa maaga

Magbasa More |

– ” Westernpacificweather
Supertyphoon Yolanda

Sa pamamagitan ng : InterAksyon.com | Pilipinas News Agency

CAAP waives bayad para sa lahat ng taong mapagkawanggawa flight ; Cebu Pacific nagtatakda ng mga iskedyul ng flight , mga pagpipilian

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 4:55 | Eric B. Apolonio , InterAksyon.com

Ang Civil Aviation Authority ng Pilipinas ( CAAP ) ay bibigyan ng Circular exempting palibot-liham mula sa mga bayad at singil sa lahat ng airline habang salalayan makatao mga flight para sa mga biktima ng super bagyo ‘ Yolanda . ‘

Mas mataas na mga presyo sa inaasahan pagkatapos cut ‘ Yolanda ‘ sa pamamagitan ng puso ng PH sugarland

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 4:42 | Orti Despuez , InterAksyon.com

Ang pamahalaan Inaasahan ng mga presyo ng asukal upang taasan pagkatapos ng Typhoon ‘ Yolanda ‘ cut sa pamamagitan ng Visayas , isinasaalang-alang ang sentro ng Philippine industriya ng asukal .

WALANG PASOK | Class pagsususpinde para sa Lunes, Nobyembre 11 , pasulong

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 4:32 | Patricia B. Aquino , InterAksyon.com

MANILA , Pilipinas – Ang mga sumusunod na LGUs at mga lugar tinigil klase simula Lunes, Nobyembre 11 , sa resulta ng supertyphoon ” Yolanda ” . Ang pahinang ito ay patuloy na i-update ng higit pang impormasyon at mga anunsyo dumating .

Komersyal na flight ipagpatuloy sa mga bahagi ng bagyo – hit Visayas

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 4:23 | Darwin G. Amojelar , InterAksyon.com

Airline ng bansa sa Lunes Ipinagpatuloy ang ilan sa kanilang mga flight sa Visayas , tatlong araw pagkatapos ng Typhoon ‘ Yolanda ‘ struck ang bansa .

Supply ng kalakal ng consumer para sa bagyo – hit Leyte sapat , sabi ni DTI

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 3:56 | Ben Arnold O. De Vera , InterAksyon.com

Ang Department of Trade at Industriya ( DTI ) sinabi ng mga consumer sa bagyo – ravaged Leyte sapat na supply ng pangunahing mga kailanganin .

Ano ‘ welga ‘ Tacloban ? PNoy aide sabihin Pangulo at wala na kinuha ‘ banyo break na ‘

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 3:54 | kaldero de Leon , InterAksyon.com

Malacanang opisyal sa Linggo gabi tinanggihan na Presidente Aquino si pagalit lumakad palabas ng isang pagtatagubilin sa bagyo – battered Tacloban , na may isang malapit na pangalawa sinasabi ng lahat ng media pagkabahala sa mga walang kabuluhang ay tungkol sa walang higit pa kaysa sa Chief Executive pagkuha ng ‘ break na banyo ‘ .

# ReliefPH | Paano iba pa ay pagtulong , at kung paano maaari mong , masyadong

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 3:44 | Patricia B. Aquino , InterAksyon.com

‘ TIS ng panahon para sa pagbibigay , at hindi lamang dahil ang Pasko ay malapit .

De Lima : Sa halip ng batas militar , isang malakas na opsyon ay pagpapahayag ng isang estado ng emergency at kalamidad

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 3:39 | Marlene Alcaide , InterAksyon.com

Ang Pilipinas ‘ Justice Secretary pinasiyahan out deklarasyon militar batas sa Tacloban City at iba pang mga lugar kung saan survivors ng bagyo Yolanda pa resorted sa looting pagkatapos iniulat shortages ng pagkain at tubig .

Naghahanap ng TAO ? Pagkatapos ng website Yolanda ni mabangis na pagsalakay , ang Google ay nag-aalok ‘ Tao Finder ‘ |

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 3:26 | InterAksyon.com

Ang Google ay isang beses muli na nag-aalok nito Tao Finder serbisyo para sa mga taong naghahanap para sa mga mahal sa buhay sa mga lugar na devastated sa pamamagitan ng supertyphoon ” Yolanda ” .

Smart , Sun pagpapanumbalik cellular serbisyo sa Tacloban

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 3:13 | InterAksyon.com

Sa isang pahayag mula sa pangkat PLDT , Smart at Sun Cellular na naibalik cellular serbisyo sa Tacloban at iba pang mga site , at sabay na tuluy-tuloy na mag-alok ng Libreng Tawag sa mga apektadong lugar. Smart Communications , Inc ( Smart ) ay ngayon up

BAYANIHAN | Bicol , Butuan execs mag-iwan para sa Samar , Leyte para sa clearing , restoration , medical ops

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 2:53 | Mario S. Arguelles , Pilipinas News Agency

Iba’t ibang mga opisyal ng gobyerno at mga tauhan mula sa Bicol at Butuan natitira para sa Samar at Leyte upang makatulong sa clearing , pagpapanumbalik , at medikal na mga operasyon .

Survivors nagtago sa Kuweba ngunit Yolanda pa rin pakaliwa higit sa 300 patay sa dalawang bayan Samar

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 2:48 | Likha Cuevas – Miel , InterAksyon.com

Higit sa 300 ay nakumpirma patay sa coastal bayan ng Basey at Marabut , na may halos lahat ng mga bahay at iba pang mga istraktura – kabilang ang mga sentro ng paglisan – nasira sa pamamagitan ng Super bagyo Yolanda , ang Disaster Samar Provincial Risk pagbabawas at Management Council ( PDRRMC ) sinabi.

Ang aming mga puso ay may mga Pilipino mga tao , IMF Managing Director sabi pagkatapos Yolanda kalamidad

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 2:17 | InterAksyon.com

Ang managing director ng International Fund hinggil sa pananalapi ( IMF ) ay ipinahayag ang kanyang kalungkutan pagkatapos ng pag-aaral tungkol sa ganap na pagkasira wrought sa pamamagitan ng bagyo Yolanda ( international name: Haiyan ) .

Estado ng matinding kalungkutan deklarasyon na hinahangad sa Yolanda – hit sa mga lungsod , probinsya para sa madaling pag foreign aid entry

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 2:00 | Ernie Reyes , InterAksyon.com

Ang Philippine Senado ay urged President Benigno Aquino III na idedeklara ng isang estado ng matinding kalungkutan sa 10 probinsya at 10 lungsod na bumubuo Rehiyon 7 at 8 ravaged sa pamamagitan ng mga super bagyo Yolanda .

DOH sabi walang mass sa libing para Yolanda sans pagkakakilanlan biktima

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 1:47 | Jet Villa , InterAksyon.com

Dapat ay walang mass libing ng mga biktima ng super bagyo Yolanda hanggang sa matapos na nakilala , ang Department of Health sinabi Lunes.

Tacloban ‘ calms down na ‘ bilang PNP nagpapadala 800 cops at panlalawigan board declares estado ng emergency

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 1:26 | Jaime Sinapit , InterAksyon.com | Pilipinas News Agency

Ang lungsod Lumilitaw na calmed down na pagkatapos ng Philippine Pambansang Pulisya ( PNP ) ay nagpadala ng dalawang battalions ng mga piling tao pwersa sa mga lungsod ng Tacloban at Ormoc kung saan lootings naiulat sa kalagayan ng mga super bagyo Yolanda , at pagkatapos ang panlalawigan board ay ipinahayag ng isang ” estado ng emergency “sa Leyte .

PH market stock plummets sa takot ekonomiya na kumuha ng isang hit mula sa ‘ Yolanda ‘

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 1:09 | Krista Angela M. Montealegre , InterAksyon.com

(Na-update 4:13 ) Philippine magbahagi ng mga presyo plunged sa Lunes , pagpapalawak ng pagkalugi sa 1/7 session , bilang mamumuhunan digested ang epekto ng Super Typhoon ” Yolanda ” sa ekonomiya.

Coron nauubusan ng rice – mayor

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 12:17 | Jaime Sinapit , InterAksyon.com

Ang mga turista bayan ng Coron sa Palawan ay tumatakbo out food , lalo na bigas , nito alkalde sinabi.

Hindi nasaktan , Galoc oil field magpapatuloy pagpapatakbo pagkatapos ng ‘ Yolanda ‘ labasan

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 12:09 | Euan Paulo C. Añonuevo , InterAksyon.com

Ang Philippines lamang komersyal na paggawa patong ng langis survived bagyo Yolanda hindi nasaktan , nito operator Sinabi ngayon .

Tacloban airport bahagyang bubukas, bilang CAAP lifts flight ban sa lahat ng domestic airport – CAAP

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 11:46 | Eric B. Apolonio , InterAksyon.com

Ang Tacloban airport domestic ( o ang Daniel Z. Romualdez Airport ) ay bahagyang buksan ang bilang Civil Aviation Authority ng Pilipinas ( CAAP ) itinaas sa Lunes ang notice sa airman ( NOTAM ) sa lahat ng domestic airport ang mga sumusunod na Biyernes ng pagtanaw sa lupain ng super bagyo Yolanda .

Disaster eksperto sa PH : Matuto mula sa 2004 mga pagsusumikap sa tsunami lunas

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 11:11 | Agence France – Presse

Disaster eksperto binigyan ng babala Lunes na pagkakamali na ginawa sa pagsisikap na lunas pagkatapos ng sakuna 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami hindi dapat na paulit-ulit na may super bagyo na si smashed sa Pilipinas .

50,000 nawala mga tahanan sa Roxas City – konsehal

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 11:03 | InterAksyon.com

Tungkol sa 50,000 mga tao nawala ang kanilang mga tahanan sa Roxas City , Capiz , konsehal Mark Ortiz sinabi Lunes.

Sa 10 ng 40 bayan uulat, Leyte tallies 1563 pagkamatay sa ngayon

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 10:46 | Mike dela Rama , Pilipinas News Agency

Ang Provincial Disaster Risk pagbabawas Management Council ( PDRRMC ) ng Leyte sa Lunes iniulat ng isang kabuuang 1563 pagkamatay ng paghahanap at pagbawi para sa mga nawawala at iba pang mga biktima magpatuloy .

VIDEO | TV5 crew pelikula Yolanda ng matinding galit sa Guiuan – at paghiwalay ng kanilang sariling panganlungan

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 10:37 | Benjie Dorango , Pagsagip 5

Isang Rescue5 Koponan ng News5 noon ay sa Guiuan , Eastern Samar , bilang Typhoon Yolanda ginawa pagtanaw sa lupain sa Sabado . Pagkuha ng kanlungan sa isang pangkat ng mga residente , crew ang nagawang makuha ang mabagal na pagkawasak ng kanilang sariling lugar ng kanlungan – at pagkatapos ay ang unang eksena ng Guiuan ng kapalaran , ang umaga pagkatapos .

Power , tubig matustusan bumalik sa normal sa Bohol

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 10:03 | Pilipinas News Agency

Power at supply ng tubig ay naibalik sa Bohol sa Linggo pagkatapos ng buong probinsya ay inilagay sa kadiliman para sa dalawang -at- a- kalahating araw kapag super bagyo Yolanda ( Haiyan ) nasira ang dalawang tower ng ​​Ormoc – Maasin 138 – kv linya ng National Grid Corporation ng Pilipinas ( NGCP ) .

‘ Yolanda ‘ kicks out Tsino mula Ayungin Reef , Philippine Marino sa grawnded barko safe

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 9:45 | Jaime Sinapit , InterAksyon.com

Super bagyo Yolanda ay nagpadala sa tahanan Tsino malapit sa dagat at Navy vessels sa Ayungin Reef sa Palawan , habang ang kalahati ng isang dosenang Philippine Marino nakasakay isang rusting at grawnded World War II – panahon barko ay ligtas , pinagmulan ng isang Sinabi InterAksyon.com .

Tawagan ang iyong FAMILY | Sa resulta ng Yolanda , Viber -aalok ng libreng mga tawag sa ibang bansa , kahit na hindi pang- Viber user

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 9:25 | InterAksyon.com

Sa resulta ng Typhoon Yolanda , Internet messaging service Viber sa Lunes inihayag ng isang ‘ pansamantalang ‘ serbisyo ‘ na nagpapahintulot sa mga user Pilipino na tumawag regular (non- Viber ) mga numero sa labas ng Pilipinas para sa libre. ‘

2 internasyonal , 32 domestic flight manatiling kinansela sa resulta ng ‘ Yolanda ‘

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 9:07 | Pilipinas News Agency

Tatlumpung – apat na mga flight na nakansela Lunes bilang isang resulta ng mga ganap na pagkasira nagdala tungkol sa pamamagitan ng super bagyo Yolanda , ang Manila International Airport Authority ( MIAA ) Media Affairs Division ( Mad ) sinabi.

Wanted | apila Roxas para sa chainsaws , backhoes para sa road – clearing , pati na rin ang mga medikal na mga boluntaryo

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 8:44 | Jaime Sinapit , Pilipinas News Agency

Kalsada ay dapat pang ganap clear ng mga labi para sa mga kalakal lunas na mabilis na pagpapadala sa mga lugar hardest hit sa pamamagitan ng bagyo Yolanda upang ang lootings mula establishments negosyo sa pamamagitan ng gutom na residente ay maaaring averted , Interior Secretary Mar Roxas sinabi sa Lunes .

Komunikasyon naibalik sa maraming lugar sa W. Visayas ngunit pa rin batik-batik sa E. Visayas – NDRRMC

11 – Nobyembre – 13 , 8:18 | Pilipinas News Agency

Communications facility Naibalik sa maraming mga lugar hit sa pamamagitan ng super bagyo Yolanda ngunit nananatiling pa rin ng problema sa Silangang Visayas , ang National Disaster at Panganib pagbabawas Management Council ( NDRRMC ) sinabi Lunes.
Typhoon Haiyan : ‘ absolute panlokong bahay ‘ Pilipinas pagkawasak

BBC Nobyembre 11, 2013 Huling na-update sa 7:24 z (GMT / UTC)

( Video credit 🙂 ” Kami ay kaya napaka- gutom at uhaw ” isa nakaligtas Sinabi ng BBC ni Jon Donnison sa Tacloban
imahe ng Jon Donnison Sa eksena Jon Donnison BBC News , Tacloban

Tacloban ay pipi . Pagmamaneho pababa sa pangunahing mataas na kalye , marahil ay hindi isang solong gusali hinayaang nakatayo .

Mga tao sabihin bayan ito ay pindutin ang sa pamamagitan ng isang pader ng ​​tubig kapag bagyo ang pindutin sa Biyernes . Mayroon ang amoy ng nabubulok corpses . Pagmamaneho sa mula sa airport , nakita namin ang mga score ng mga katawan na namamalagi sa pamamagitan ng mga baybay-daan . Para sa tatlong araw na sila ay naging doon , na walang isa sa malibing ang mga ito .

Ang mga tao ay wala nang pag-asa para sa pagkain , malinis na tubig at mag-ampon . Sa mga di-wastong battered airport , isang pansamantala ospital na-set up . Nakakita kami ng dalawang batang babae panganganak , inilatag kabilang sa mga labi .

Aid ay nakakakuha sa , ngunit dahan-dahan . At ito ay isa lamang sa bayan , sa isang lalawigan . Walang – isa alam ang buong lawak ng ganap na pagkasira sa ibang lugar.

Magbasa nang higit pa mula sa Jon

Typhoon Haiyan

Tacloban sa mga lugar ng pagkasira
satellite mga imahe
UK aid
Ang iyong mga larawan

Ang pinuno ng Red Cross sa Pilipinas ay inilarawan ang ganap na pagkasira na dulot ng Typhoon Haiyan ng ” absolute panlokong bahay ” .

Tantyahin ang mga opisyal ng hanggang sa 10,000 mga tao na namatay sa Tacloban lungsod at daan-daang iba pang lugar . Daan-daang libo ng mga tao ay displaced .

Ang bagyo pipi mga tahanan , paaralan at ng airport .

Dahil ito ay ginawa pagtanaw sa lupain sa hilagang Vietnam , malapit sa Intsik hangganan , kung saan ito ay weakened sa isang tropikal na bagyo .

gamit

Apat na milyong tao ang apektado sa Pilipinas , at marami na ngayon ang mga struggling upang mabuhay nang walang pagkain , mag-ampon o malinis na inuming tubig .

Isang malaking internasyonal na pagsisikap na lunas ay sa ilalim ng paraan , ngunit Pagsagip manggagawa na struggled upang maabot ang ilang mga bayan at mga nayon cut off dahil ang bagyo .

” Mayroong isang kakila-kilabot maraming casualties , ng maraming mga tao patay lahat ng dako ng lugar , ng maraming pagkawasak , ” Richard Gordon , pinuno ng Philippine Red Cross , sinabi ng BBC .

“Ito ay ganap na panlokong bahay sa ngayon , ngunit sana ay ito ay i- out mas mahusay na bilang higit pa at higit pang mga supplies dumapo sa lugar. ”

Sinabi niya mga kalsada ngayon ay na- clear upang payagan ang mga manggagawa na lunas upang makakuha ng sa mga lugar hardest hit , ngunit na inaasahan nila upang makahanap ng mas maraming mga casualties .

“Ito ay lamang na ngayon na sila ay magagawang upang makakuha ng in at kami ay simula lamang upang dalhin sa ang mga kinakailangang mga item na pagkain … pati na rin ang tubig at iba pang mga bagay na kailangan nila. ”

Forecasters hinulaang isang tropikal depresyon ay ilipat papunta sa timog at central Pilipinas sa Martes , potensyal na nagdadala ng mabibigat umuulan na nais karagdagang makahadlang pagsisikap na lunas .

Boluntaryo mula sa Paghahanap at Pagsagip Unit Foundation kumuha ng aerial view ng pinsala

Jane nagkakasa , ang taong mapagkawanggawa director para sa Oxfam , sinabi ang kanyang mga kasamahan nakasaksi ” kumpletong pagkawasak … buong bahagi ng baybayin lamang ay nawala , at malaki mga puno lamang baluktot sa ibabaw at [ ay ] itinapon tungkol sa tulad ng matchsticks . ”

Ang pinakabagong ulat mula sa Pilipinas ‘ pagbabawas Disaster Risk at Management Council nakumpirma 255 pagkamatay bilang ng 22:00 GMT sa Linggo. Ito sinabi ng halos 630,000 mga tao ay iniulat displaced .

Ngunit opisyal na binigyan ng babala na ang bilang ng mga patay ay tumaas nang malaki-laki .
Nawasak bahay hit sa pamamagitan ng Typhoon Haiyan sa bayan ng Guiuan sa Eastern Samar lalawigan , central Pilipinas sa Nobyembre 11, 2013 Tatlong araw pagkatapos ng Typhoon Haiyan hit , panghimpapawid na larawan ay ipinapakita ang isang eksena ng apocalyptic ganap na pagkasira sa kahabaan ng isang bendahe ng gitnang Pilipinas .
Cargo ships ay hugasan sa kati ay nakita apat na araw pagkatapos ng super bagyo Haiyan pindutin ang bayan Anibong , Tacloban city , central Pilipinas 11 Nobyembre 2013 . Kabilang sa mga lugar hardest hit ay ang lungsod ng Tacloban , kung saan ang kabangisan ng waves bagyo swept ito barko sa pampang .
Ang isang 21- taon gulang na babae ay namamalagi sa naubos na ang mga labi -covered palapag sa isang pansamantala medikal na pasilidad sa Tacloban pagkatapos ng panganganak sa isang sanggol batang babae Ang isang 21- taon gulang na babae ay namamalagi sa naubos na ang mga labi -covered palapag sa isang pansamantala medikal na pasilidad sa Tacloban pagkatapos ng panganganak sa isang batang babae sanggol . Ang bagyo paggulong swept ang layo ng kanyang ina .
Philippine at US militar tauhan ng pagkarga lunas kalakal para sa Tacloban nakasakay isang US C – 130 plane para sa mga biktima ng Super Typhoon Haiyan na pindutin ang gitnang Pilipinas , sa isang militar na base sa Manila sa Nobyembre 11, 2013 Sa Manila , Pilipinas at US militar tauhan ng pagkarga lunas kalakal para sa Tacloban . International Pagsagip mga koponan ay heading para sa lugar.
Isang turista bangka ay nakikita paglubog sa Ha Long Bay , Vietnam sa Nobyembre 11, 2013 Ang bagyo – ngayon downgrade na sa isang tropikal na bagyo – ay umabot Vietnam , kung saan daan-daang libo ng mga tao ay na- evacuated .

‘ Hindi pa nagagawang ‘ bagyo

Typhoon Haiyan – isa sa mga pinaka- malakas na bagyo sa tala upang gumawa ng pagtanaw sa lupain – swept sa pamamagitan ng anim na sentro ng Philippine isla sa Biyernes .

Ito nagdala matagal na hangin ng 235km / h ( 147mph ), na may gusts ng 275 km / h ( 170 mph ), na may mga wave bilang mataas na bilang 15m ( 45ft ) , nagdadala ng hanggang sa 400mm ( 15.75 pulgada ) ng pag-ulan sa lugar .

” Ang mundo ay hindi nakikita ng bagyo tulad nito bago , ” sabi Senen Mangalile , ang Pilipinas punong konsul sa UK .
” Ang mundo ay hindi nakikita ng bagyo tulad nito bago ”

Senen Mangalile Pilipinas punong konsul sa UK

Ang iyong mga larawan : ganap na pagkasira
UK aid para sa mga biktima

Steven Godby , isang kalamidad dalubhasa sa pamamahala sa Nottingham Trent University , sinabi ng BBC ang bagyo ay ” marahil ang pinaka- matinding at pinakamatibay na bagyo na ganito ang uri upang gumawa ng pagtanaw sa lupain ” .

“Kami ay nakakita bagyo tulad marahil ito sa mga bihirang pagkakataon na nagkaroon na uri ng intensity out sa dagat ngunit para sa mga ito na dumating sa pampang na may ganoong uri ng lakas ay halos wala pang nakagagawa , ” Dr Godby sinabi.

Amerikano militar sasakyang panghimpapawid at ships ay ina- deploy upang magbigay ng tulong. US President Barack Obama ay ibinigay ng isang mensahe na nagsasabi siya ay ” malalim saddened sa pamamagitan ng pagkawala ng buhay at malawakang pagkasira ” .

Iba pang mga bansa na rin ang nangangakong ng milyun-milyong dolyar sa tulong. Australya ay naaprubahan $ 9m sa makatao aid sa Pilipinas , habang ang New Zealand ay nakapangako sa paglipas ng $ 1m .

Kristalina Georgieva , ang EU aid makatao commissioner , sinabi ng mga pagsisikap na lunas ay ginagabayan ng tatlong prayoridad .
nakamamatay typhoons

Set 1937 Hong Kong bagyo – 11,000 patay
Set 1959 Typhoon Vera – deadliest na matumbok Japan , pagpatay 5238 mga tao
Agosto 1975 Typhoon Nina – tungkol sa 229,000 mamatay sa Tsina pagkatapos ng pagbagsak ng Banqiao dam
Nobyembre 1991 Typhoon Thelma – deadliest sa Pilipinas upang petsa , pagpatay 5-8,000

“Ang unang isa ay upang makakuha ng access sa remote na lugar nang mabilis hangga’t maaari , at ang pag-access isyu ay parehong transportation at din pagpapanumbalik ng telekomunikasyon , ” sinabi niya

” Ang ikalawang , siyempre , ay ang pagkuha ng agarang makatao tulong para sa mga taong apektado ng ganitong uri ng kalamidad . At sa susunod na isa ay magiging kanlungan . ”

Ang mga pagsisikap na lunas ay ina nakatutuk sa silangang lalawigan ng Leyte at kabisera nito Tacloban , kung saan ang isang napakalaking pag-akyat bagyo pipi bahay .

Ang bagyo – na may pangalang ” Yolanda ” sa pamamagitan ng mga awtoridad ng Pilipino – bagbag ng hanggang sa 80 % ng mga istraktura sa kanyang landas , punong pulis superintendente Elmer Soria Sinabi reporters .

Sinabi ng mga opisyal ng looting ay laganap at pagkakasunod-sunod ay nagpapatunay mahirap na ipatupad .

Militar tagapagsalita lt COL Ramon Zagala sinabi na 100 sundalo ay itinalaga upang makatulong na maiwasan ang pulis looting sa Tacloban , AFP balita ahensiya iniulat .

Philippine President Benigno Aquino sinabi nagkaroon ng posibilidad na militar batas o ng isang estado ng kagipitan ay ipinahayag sa lungsod.

Sa ilang mga lugar , ang mga patay ay ina- buried sa libingan masa .

Typhoon Haiyan na ngayon ang ginawa pagtanaw sa lupain sa Vietnam , malapit sa tourist destination ng Ha Long Bay , may matagal na hangin ng hanggang sa 140 km / h ( 85mph ) .

Ang ilang mga 600,000 mga tao ay evacuated sa hilagang lalawigan ng bansa .
mapa

Kaugnay na Mga Kuwento

Super Typhoon Haiyan : Satellite mga imahe
Paano Haiyan pindutin Pilipinas
Sa mga larawan : Pilipinas ganap na pagkasira

Mga Video
Typhoon Haiyan hit Vietnam at gumagalaw patungo sa katimugang Tsina

( Video credit : ITN )

Nai-publish sa Nobyembre 11, 2013
Typhoon Haiyan ay ginawa pagtanaw sa lupain sa hilagang Vietnam bilang isang tropikal na bagyo , pagkatapos umaalis sa napakalaking pagkawasak sa Pilipinas. Mag-ulat ng Sarah Kerr .
Typhoon Haiyan : 12 rescued pagkatapos barko maiiwan tayo sa China

( Video credit : ITN )

Nai-publish sa Nobyembre 11, 2013
Twelve crew mga kasapi -off ang dalawang barko na nawala ang kontrol ng kanilang mga anchor sa timog ng China Hainan lalawigan na- rescued pagsunod bagyo Haiyan . Mag-ulat ng Sarah Kerr .
malapit sa dagat
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP22 RJTD 110,600

BABALA 110,600 .

BABALA BISA 120,600 .

BABALA AY Ina-update bawat 6 HOURS .

BABALA unos .

Tropical Storm 1330 HAIYAN ( 1330 ) downgrade MULA MALALANG tropikal

Storm 996 HPA

SA 22.3N 107.4E South China gumagalaw hilaga 10 buhol .

Magandang posisyon .

MAX hangin 40 buhol MALAPIT SA CENTER .

Radius ng MAHIGIT 30 na hangin umpukan 150 milya hilaga kalahati ng bilog AT 120 milya

Sa ibang dako .

Pagtataya POSITION PARA SA 111800UTC 23.0N 107.1E MAY 50 milya radius

NG 70 PERCENT CIRCLE posibilidad .

1002 HPA .

Pagiging tropikal depresyon .

Pagtataya POSITION PARA SA 120600UTC 23.7N 107.0E MAY 70 milya radius

NG 70 PERCENT CIRCLE posibilidad .

1008 HPA .

Pagiging tropikal depresyon .

Japan meteorolohiko AGENCY . =

Huwag gumamit ng anumang impormasyon sa site na ito para sa buhay o sa kamatayan desisyon. Ang lahat ng impormasyon ay inilaan bilang pandagdag sa opisyal na pinagkukunan . Pinapayuhan sumangguni sa opisyal na website ng iyong bansa panahon ahensiya / pamahalaan para sa mga lokal babala, advisories at bulletin .

Vietnamese (Translated by Google)

Trung Quốc / Việt Nam / Philippines : Bão 1330 Haiyan 101500Z 22.6N 107.6E , di chuyển N tại 9knots ( JMA ) suy yếu trên S Trung Quốc , cơn bão mới cho PH – 111.113 1010Z

Bão 1330 Haiyan ( JMA )
Cơn bão nhiệt ới 31W ( Haiyan )
Hạ cấp từ TYPHOON 31W ( JTWC )
Yolanda ở Philippines

TYPHOON Yolanda LÀ DOANH NGHIỆP NGOÀI VÙNG Philippine TRCH NHIỆM ( cải cch hành chnh ) – Pagasa

” Haiyan nhanh chng làm suy yếu ra trên toàn miền nam Trung Quốc . Cơn bão này một vỏ trước kia vẫn mang lại nguy cơ mưa lớn và gi cơn gi ể Trung Quốc ến giữa tuần ”
Philippines Hãy coi chừng!