South Korea/ Yellow Sea: Severe Tropical Storm NAKRI 1412 12W 021500Z near 33.7N 124.8E, moving N at 10km/h(6kt)(JMA) – Updated 020814 1837z (UTC)

Tropical Storm NAKRI

1412 (JMA) #12W (JTWC)

 9/02/20149/03/2014

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS NOW OUT OF DATE

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency (JMA is the lead agency in this area)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

TS 1412 (NAKRI)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 2 August 2014

<Analyses at 02/15 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N33°40′(33.7°)
E124°50′(124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E560km(300NM)
W370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 03/03 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N34°50′(34.8°)
E124°35′(124.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 03/15 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°25′(35.4°)
E125°10′(125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N36°30′(36.5°)
E126°50′(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slowly
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N38°00′(38.0°)
E129°00′(129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
 Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

South Korea

Korea Meteorological Administration

No.12 NAKRI

Issued at(KST) : 2014.08.03. 01:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2014.08.02. 15:00 Analysis 33.5 124.7 985 25 90 300
(NNE 260)
Normal Medium N 11
2014.08.03. 03:00 Forecast 34.6 124.8 990 24 86 250
(NNE 220)
Weak Small N 10 100
2014.08.03. 15:00 Forecast 35.5 125.1 994 21 76 210
(NNE 180)
Weak Small NNE 9 150
2014.08.04. 03:00 Forecast 36.1 125.6 996 19 68 150
(NE 120)
Weak Small NE 7 210
2014.08.04. 15:00 Forecast 36.6 126.2 1000 NE 6

�� It is provided only for the typhoon information in progress. The past information could be found in National Typhoon Center homepage.

�� National Typhoon Center Homepage

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1214.gif

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp12140215.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/12W_021132sair.jpg

WTPN32 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
021200Z — NEAR 33.3N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.3N 124.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z — 34.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 35.3N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 36.1N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 36.9N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 39.0N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 33.6N 124.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND
031500Z. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logo

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Aug, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NAKRI (12W) currently located near 32.7 N 124.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    China
        probability for TS is 75% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 72 hours
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Sariwon (38.5 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    P’yongyang (39.0 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Other Reports

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 021200
WARNING 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1412 NAKRI (1412) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 980 HPA
AT 33.3N 124.5E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 34.6N 124.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 35.4N 125.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 36.5N 126.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 38.0N 129.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1200

WWJP25 RJTD 021200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 51N 157E
60N 163E 60N 180E 40N 180E 40N 160E 36N 150E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 56N 142E ESE SLOWLY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 42N 153E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 53N 166E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 29N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 40N 174E EAST SLOWLY.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1411 HALONG (1411) 935 HPA AT 14.9N 135.1E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1412 NAKRI (1412) 980 HPA AT 33.3N 124.5E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA /1200

WWCI50 BABJ 021200
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1530UTC AUG.02 2014=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC AUG. 02=
FORECAST VALID 1200UTC AUG. 03=
WARNNING=
SUPER TY HALONG 1411(1411) 940HPA AT 15.1N 135.1E
MOVING WNW 12KM/H AND MAX WINDS 58M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 19.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
300KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
480KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
AND PADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
160KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
210KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
AND PADIUS OF 64KTS WINDS
70KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
AND FORECAST FOR 031200UTC AT 16.2N 132.5E 910HPA
AND MAX WINDS 65M/S NEAR CENTER=
TS NAKRI 1412(1412) 985HPA AT 32.8N 124.6E
MOVING NNW 12KM/H AND MAX WINDS 23M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 7.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
400KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
400KM SOUTHWEST
350KM NORTHWEST
AND FORECAST FOR 031200UTC AT 35.3N 125.1E 995HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
WINDS FROM 12 TO 18M/S GUST 23M/S SEAS UP TO 5.5M
OVER SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 16 TO 23M/S GUST 28M/S SEAS
UP TO 6.0M OVER NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
AND BASHI CHANNEL AND SOUTH PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 14 TO 20M/S GUST 23M/S SEAS UP TO
6.0M OVER KOREA STRAIT=
SLY WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
4.0M OVER SEA NEAR RYUKYU ISLANDS AND SEA SOUTHWEST
OF JAPAN=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 38 TO 50M/S SEAS UP TO 15.0M
OVER SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 20 TO 28M/S SEAS UP TO 9.0M
OVER SEA WEST OF GUAM=
WINDS FROM 42 TO 52M/S SEAS UP TO 17.0M OVER SEAS
NEAR CENTER OF HALONG=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER SOUTH PART
OF YELLOW SEA AND NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND
SEA NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN AND KOREA STRAIT AND SEA
SOUTHWEST OF JAPAN AND SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA
ISLANDS AND ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
AND SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT BANDA AND LAUT MALUKU=
FORECAST=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 16 TO 24M/S GUST 25 TO 32M/S
SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER MIDDLE AND SOUTH PARTS OF
YELLOW SEA AND NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
NE WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS
UP TO 4.0M OVER NORTH PART OF YELLOW SEA=
NE WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S GUST 17M/S SEAS UP TO
2.5M OVER BOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT=
SW WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER
SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT
AND MIDDLE PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER SEA
EAST OF TAIWAN AND BASHI CHANNEL AND SOUTH PART OF
SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 17M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SOUTHWEST PART FO JAPAN SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 16 TO 24M/S SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER
KOREA STRAIT=
SLY/SE WINDS FROM 08 TO 17M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=
NW WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S WILL INCREASE FROM 18 TO
24M/S SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER SEA NORTHEAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 33 TO 41M/S SEAS UP TO 14.0M
OVER SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS=
SW WINDS FROM 18 TO 24M/S SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER SEA
WEST OF GUAM=
WINDS FROM 50 TO 60M/S SEAS UP TO 18.0M OVER
SEAS NEAR CENTER OF HALONG=

2 thoughts on “South Korea/ Yellow Sea: Severe Tropical Storm NAKRI 1412 12W 021500Z near 33.7N 124.8E, moving N at 10km/h(6kt)(JMA) – Updated 020814 1837z (UTC)

  1. TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Aug, 2014 12:00 GMT

    Tropical Depression NAKRI (12W) currently located near 35.7 N 125.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
    probability for TS is 60% currently

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    Like

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