West Pacific: Typhoon Banyan 14W 151500Z position 29.3N 162.6E, moving N 13 kt (JTWC) – Updated 15 Aug 2017 1350z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Banyan 14W

(= CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 25 FEET. (JTWC)

(Image: @wunderground)

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 14W (Banyan) Warning #11
Issued at 13/1500Z

 

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 28.5N 162.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 005 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 162.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 31.5N 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 35.0N 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 29 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 39.2N 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 32 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 44.0N 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 29.3N 162.6E.
TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

TY 1712 (Banyan)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 15 August 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 15 August>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°20′ (28.3°)
E162°10′ (162.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 60 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 280 km (150 NM)
W 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 16 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°10′ (31.2°)
E162°55′ (162.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 16 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N34°40′ (34.7°)
E166°05′ (166.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 40 km/h (22 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 August>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N43°00′ (43.0°)
E177°30′ (177.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55 km/h (30 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)

Units:
1 kt (knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1 nm (nautical mile) = 1.852 km

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 151200

WTJP21 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1712 BANYAN (1712) 975 HPA
AT 28.3N 162.2E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 31.2N 162.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 34.7N 166.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 43.0N 177.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

West Pacific/ Guam /Marianas: Tropical Disturbance (#97W): High chance of a significant Tropical #Cyclone within next 24 hrs (JTWC 25/0200Z) – Published 25 Jun 2017 1550z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Disturbance (Invest  97W)

….has a high chance of becoming a significant Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours (JTWC 25/0200Z)

Guam and Marianas Beware!

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

WTPN21 PGTW 250200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N 146.2E TO 15.8N 141.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 145.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 147.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 145.8E, APPROXIMATELY
65 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH
INCREASING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE CENTER. A 242032Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260200Z.//
NNNN

===============================================================================

000
WWMY80 PGUM 251617 CCA
SPSMY

Special Weather Statement…Corrected
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1137 PM ChST Sun Jun 25 2017

GUZ001>004-260300-
Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan-
1137 PM ChST Sun Jun 25 2017

…TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS TONIGHT…

A developing tropical disturbance near Rota remains the subject
of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center. This disturbance will continue to produce scattered
showers, isolated thunderstorms, occasional heavy rain and gusty
winds tonight as it continues westward.

If you are planning any outdoor activities through Monday evening,
be aware of current conditions and be prepared to move indoors,
if necessary. Mariners operating small vessels should remain in
port. Beach goers and swimmers need to stay close to shore and
move indoors if lightning is present.

Residents should stay informed on the latest statements and
advisories issued by the National Weather Service and local
emergency management offices. Products issued by the National
Weather Service are posted on the WFO Guam web page at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/.

$$

Kleeschulte

Guam Infrared Color (Himawari 8)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
WHGM70 PGUM 250354
MWWGUM

URGENT – MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
154 PM CHST SUN JUN 25 2017

PMZ152>154-252000-
/O.NEW.PGUM.SI.Y.0004.170625T0354Z-170625T2000Z/
ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
154 PM CHST SUN JUN 25 2017

…SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CHST
MONDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CHST MONDAY.

EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL
BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS…ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS…SHOULD AVOID SAILING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

STANKO

060
FZMY70 PGUM 250715
MWSMY

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
515 PM CHST SUN JUN 25 2017

PMZ151>154-252000-
GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
515 PM CHST SUN JUN 25 2017

A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING FREQUENT LIGHTNING
TO THE MARIANAS WATERS TONIGHT. SEEK SAFE SHELTER INDOORS, OR
BELOW DECK FOR MARINERS AWAY FROM LAND. VISIBILITES WILL BE BELOW
1 NAUTICAL MILE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REMAIN ALERT
FOR FURTHER BULLETINS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN,
GUAM.

$$

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Typhoon Dolphin 07W threatens Iwo Jima (Iwo To) – 180515 1517z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Dolphin (1507, 07W)

(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 33
FEET. – JTWC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

1507-00 d18

1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TY 1507 (DOLPHIN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 18 May 2015

<Analyses at 18/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°10′(22.2°)
E138°55′(138.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE390km(210NM)
SW280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 19/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°40′(23.7°)
E139°25′(139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 19/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°05′(25.1°)
E141°00′(141.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 20/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°35′(31.6°)
E148°00′(148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 40km/h(22kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)
<Forecast for 21/12 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44°25′(44.4°)
E165°30′(165.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 85km/h(47kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 600km(325NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Super Typhoon 07W (Dolphin) Warning #40
Issued at 16/1500Z

wp0715 d18

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/07W_181132sair.jpg

WTPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
181200Z — NEAR 22.5N 138.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 015 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 138.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 23.9N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 25.8N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 28.7N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 32 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 33.3N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 138.8E.
TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM SOUTHWEST OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 33
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 May, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon DOLPHIN (07W) currently located near 14.0 N 144.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Guam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the Northern Mariana Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hagatna (13.5 N, 144.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201507W d18

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 181200

WTJP22 RJTD 181200
WARNING 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1507 DOLPHIN (1507) 955 HPA
AT 22.2N 138.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 23.7N 139.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 25.1N 141.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 31.6N 148.0E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 44.4N 165.5E WITH 325 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 181200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 984 HPA
AT 48N 176E SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 48N 176E TO 48N 180E 46N 175W.
WARM FRONT FROM 46N 175W TO 43N 172W 40N 170W.
COLD FRONT FROM 46N 175W TO 41N 177W 38N 180E 35N 175E 32N 166E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N 166E TO 31N 158E 32N 148E 33N 137E 35N 132E
27N 120E 25N 112E 24N 109E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
400 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 35N 132E WESTERN JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 28N 130E 31N 130E
35N 141E 42N 142E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 33N 180E 29N 165E 28N
149E 28N 130E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 39N 129E ENE 15 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 48N 146E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 34N 156E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 26N 163E EAST 10 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1507 DOLPHIN (1507) 955 HPA AT 22.2N 138.9E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines/ Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm BAVI / BETTY(1503) 170600Z nr 15.3N 135.4E, moving WNW at 13 knots (JMA) – Updated 170315 0820z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Bavi (1503)(03W)/ “BETTY” in Philippines

…BAVI IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND COULD BE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE TONIGHT….NWS GUAM

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

wp201503_sat_anim BAVI 17

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1503-00 BAVI 17

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15031709

TS 1503 (BAVI)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 17 March 2015

<Analyses at 17/06 UTC>
Scale –
Intensity –
Center position N15°20′(15.3°)
E135°25′(135.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW280km(150NM)
SE170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 17/18 UTC>
Intensity –
Center position of probability circle N15°35′(15.6°)
E133°40′(133.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 18/06 UTC>
Intensity –
Center position of probability circle N16°05′(16.1°)
E131°55′(131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 19/06 UTC>
Intensity –
TD
Center position of probability circle N16°30′(16.5°)
E129°05′(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)

PAGASA Track as of 8 a.m., 17 March 2015 Satellite Image 
betty 15031700 bettysat 15031700

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER ONE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT: TROPICAL STORM “BETTY” (BAVI)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Tuesday, 17 March 2015

The Tropical Storm {BAVI} east of Bicol Region will enter The Philippine Area Of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon and will be named “BETTY”.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.)
1,530 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Coordinates: 15.4°N, 136.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph.
Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 20 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook: 24 hour (Tomorrow morning):
1,030 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
48 hour (Thursday morning):
640 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
72 hour (Friday morning):
270 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
No Public Storm Warning Signal

Estimated rainfall amount is from 2.5 – 7.5 mm per hour (light – moderate) within the 500 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.

The Tropical Storm is expected to weaken into a Tropical Depression within the next 24-36 hours.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11PM today.

 11  a.m. Weather Bulletin in pdf 

National Weather Service Forecast OfficeWFO Guam

errorTrack1 BAVI 17
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 170235
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
200 PM CHST TUE MAR 17 2015

…TROPICAL STORM BAVI WEAKENING…

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.3N 135.8E

ABOUT 430 MILES NORTH OF YAP
ABOUT 660 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 630 MILES WEST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 610 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST-NORTHWEST…290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
AT 100 PM CHST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.8 EAST…MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. BAVI IS EXPECTED TO CURVE WESTWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 40 MPH. SATELLITE DATA
INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES…MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BAVI IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND COULD BE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

ZIOBRO

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wp0315 BAVI 17

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03W_162332sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 170300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
170000Z — NEAR 15.2N 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 136.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 15.6N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 15.8N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 16.0N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 16.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 15.9N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 135.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 170600

WTJP21 RJTD 170600
WARNING 170600.
WARNING VALID 180600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1503 BAVI (1503) 998 HPA
AT 15.3N 135.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 15.6N 133.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 16.1N 131.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 16.5N 129.1E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WTPH RPMM 170000
TTT GALE WARNING 01

AT 0000 17 MARCH TROPICAL STORM [BAVI] {1503} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE SIX POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 180000 ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 190000 ONE SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ONE EAST AND AT 200000 ONE SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

Further warnings here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South China Sea/ Philipines/ Luzon/ China/ Vietnam: Typhoon Rammasun/ Glenda (09W): 160900Z near 15.4N 118.0E, moving WNW at 20 knots (JMA) moving towards Bajo De Masinloc, Zambales (PAGASA) – Updated 160714 1153z (UTC)

NOW OUT OF DATE

LATEST HERE

http://wp.me/p2k2mU-2NX

Typhoon Rammasun/Glenda (09W)

(Equivalent to a CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

TY 1409 (RAMMASUN) (JMA)

Philipines:

Typhoon “ ” is now over the West Philippine Sea moving towards Bajo De Masinloc, Zambales (PAGASA)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

GUAM

National Weather Service Forecast OfficeWFO Guam

NO active tropical cyclones at this time
Wed, 16 Jul 2014 21:03:34 ChST

Japan Meteorological agency

TY 1409 (RAMMASUN)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 16 July 2014

<Analyses at 16/09 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°25′(15.4°)
E118°00′(118.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 16/21 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°35′(16.6°)
E115°35′(115.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 17/09 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°50′(17.8°)
E113°25′(113.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 18/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°35′(19.6°)
E110°50′(110.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 19/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°10′(21.2°)
E107°30′(107.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Philippines

PAGASA-DOST

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

#GlendaPH Weather Bulletin #13 as of 5:00 PM, 16 July 2014

PUBLIC STORM WARNING SIGNAL #1
Laguna, Batangas, northern part of Occidental and Oriental Mindoro,
Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bataan, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Lubang Island, Pangasinan and Metro Manila

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/09W_160532sams.jpg

WTPN32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 15.1N 119.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 119.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 16.2N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 17.4N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 18.6N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z — 19.6N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 21.3N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 22.7N 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 118.5E.
TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 16 Jul, 2014 6:00 GMT

Typhoon RAMMASUN (09W) currently located near 15.1 N 119.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
    Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
    Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
    Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
    Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com

Typhoon Rammasun (Glenda) Evening Update | July 16, 2014 – WestPacWx

Watch WxCaster PAT’s Latest Video Update on Typhoon Rammasun (Bagyong Glenda):

Typhoon Rammasun is now moving away from Luzon, Philippines and is heading towards Southern China. Residual rain showers are still lingering across Luzon but we expect those to become more spotty and gradually taper off by tomorrow. Some areas are still under Signal #1 however: Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bataan, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Lubang Island, Pangasinan, and Metro Manila.

IR Image from NOAA

071614 0932z ir analysis

Meanwhile, Typhoon Rammasun is now moving across the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) and is forecast to re-intensify as it moves across the open waters. Forecasts from different agencies are bringing the typhoon towards the island of Hainan by Friday afternoon and then into Northern Vietnam (or perhaps in Guangxi Province in China) by Saturday afternoon. Heavy rains and damaging winds will threaten the areas mentioned later this week.

We are also watching a developing Low Pressure Area (LPA) east of the Philippines. Some computer models are showing some development for this disturbance and so we will continue monitoring this area for intensification.

 

New Tropical Depression

Impacts from the Storm in Luzon

At least ten deaths (via reuters) have been reported across the Philippines Wednesday due to Typhoon Rammasun / Glenda. This storm brought typhoon strength winds across southern Luzon forcing at least 370,000 people to evacuate ahead of the storm.   The city of Manila was practically shut down following all finical markets, offices and schools being closed on Wednesday.   A 25-year-old woman was killed when she was hit by a falling electricity pole as Rammasun hit the east coast on Tuesday, the Philippine disaster agency said. A pregnant woman was killed when a house wall collapsed in Lucena City in Quezon province south of the capital.   Wide spread blackouts were also reported across Luzon including the Metro Manila area where at least 85% of the city lost power.   A Singapore Airlines Boeing 777-200 suffered a hole on its left wing when wind gusts pushed the aircraft five metres across the tarmac at Manila airport, hitting equipment parked nearby.   At least four southeastern provinces on Luzon declared, or were about to declare, a state of calamity, allowing the local governments to tap emergency relief funds. This includes Albay where the storm made landfall Tuesday Evening. More than 200 international and domestic flights have been cancelled.  

If you have any videos or images from Typhoon Glenda, please share them with us on our Facebook Page. Stay safe!

 

The Agencies

Yes there are numerous agencies warning on the storm. The ones featured in the video above area JMA, JTWC and PAGASA.. To get a good idea on where it is exactly going check out some of the links below.

” –

NEWS

Typhoon kills 10 in Philippines but eases before heading for China

“(Reuters) – A typhoon killed at least 10 people as it churned across the Philippines and shut down the capital, cutting power and prompting the evacuation of more than 400,000 residents, rescue officials said.

The eye of Typhoon Rammasun, the strongest storm to hit the country this year, passed south of Manila after cutting a path across the main island of Luzon, toppling trees and power lines and causing electrocutions and widespread blackouts.

By Wednesday evening, the storm was easing in the capital and markets and public offices were due to reopen on Thursday. Some schools were to remain closed.

Manila Electric Company (MER.PS) said 76 percent of the area it serves was without power, compared with 86 percent earlier in the day.

“Our weather is improving as the typhoon is moving further away,” Rene Paciente of the weather bureau said, adding storm alerts in various part of the country were lifted or lowered.

The number of evacuated residents had reached 409,000, Wilma Cabrera, the Social Welfare Assistant Secretary, told Reuters.

Many of those forced from their homes were in the eastern province of Albay, the first to be hit by the typhoon, the disaster agency said. They were taken to schools, gymnasiums and town halls for shelter.

Officials said 460,000 had been affected by the storm.

Major roads across Luzon were blocked by debris, fallen trees, electricity poles and tin roofs ripped off village houses. The storm uprooted trees in the capital, where palm trees lining major arteries were bent over by the wind as broken hoardings bounced down the streets.

Public Works and Highways Secretary Rogelio Singson and Admiral Alexander Pama, the executive director of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, surveyed the typhoon-affected areas by helicopter.

“I am happily surprised because of the minimal casualties and damage,” Singson said, adding the typhoon had passed through the most populated area of the country, with about 17 million people living in its path.

Singson and Pama said the government was more prepared after the devastation caused by Super Typhoon Haiyan in November, evacuating people at risk in coastal and landslide-prone areas well before the typhoon made landfall.

Parts of the Philippines are still recovering from Haiyan, one of the biggest cyclones known to have made landfall anywhere. It killed more than 6,100 in the central provinces, many in tsunami-like sea surges, and left millions homeless.

Tropical Storm Risk, which monitors cyclones, downgraded Rammasun to a category-one storm on a scale of one to five as it headed northwest into the South China Sea. Haiyan was category five. A category-one storm has maximum sustained winds of 95 mph (153 kph) But it predicted Rammasun would gain in strength to category-three within a couple of days, picking up energy from the warm sea as it heads for the Chinese island of Hainan.

 

TACLOBAN HIT AGAIN

The storm brought sea surges to Manila Bay and prompted disaster officials to evacuate slum-dwellers on the capital’s outskirts.

Rhea Catada, who works for Oxfam in Tacloban, which suffered the brunt of Haiyan, said thousands of people in tents and coastal villages had been moved to higher ground.

“They are scared because their experiences during Haiyan last year are still fresh,” she said. “Now they are evacuating voluntarily and leaving behind their belongings.”

Social Welfare Secretary Dinky Soliman said 5,335 families, or nearly 27,000 people, had been affected in Tacloban. Some had returned to the Astrodome, where thousands sought shelter and dozens drowned during storm surges in the November disaster.

A woman of 25 was killed when she was hit by a falling electricity pole as Rammasun hit the east coast on Tuesday, the disaster agency said. A pregnant woman was killed when a house wall collapsed in Lucena City south of Manila.

Nearly 400 flights were grounded during a four-hour closure of Manila airport. Two airliners suffered minor damage when gusts blew them into nearby obstacles, airport officials said.

Train services in the capital were suspended because of the lack of power. Ferry services were suspended, including to the holiday island of Boracay where 300 tourists were stranded.

(Additional reporting by Karen Lema and Erik dela Cruz; Writing by Nick Macfie; Editing by Ron Popeski)” – Reuters

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/16/us-philippines-typhoon-idUSKBN0FL07520140716

 

MARITIME

Marine Page – WFO Guam

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0900

WTJP32 RJTD 160900
WARNING 160900.
WARNING VALID 170900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1409 RAMMASUN (1409) 960 HPA
AT 15.4N 118.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 162100UTC AT 16.6N 115.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170900UTC AT 17.8N 113.4E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 160600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 160600.
WARNING VALID 170600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 138E 35N 141E
42N 143E 47N 152E 54N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 39N 180E 38N 148E 33N
142E 33N 138E 35N 138E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 57N 144E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 49N 147E EAST SLOWLY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 40N 175E EAST 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 10N 137E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 30N 141E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 38N 149E ESE SLOWLY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N 111E TO 30N 120E 34N 130E 38N 139E 37N
143E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1409 RAMMASUN (1409) 960 HPA AT 15.1N 119.1E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 0600

WWCI50 BABJ 160600
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1015UTC JUL.16 2014=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC JUL. 16=
FORECAST VALID 0600UTC JUL. 17=
WARNNING=
TY RAMMASUN 1409(1409) 970HPA AT 14.9N 119.2E
MOVING WNW 25KM/H AND MAX WINDS 35M/S NEAR CENTER
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
250KM NORTHEAST
300KM SOUTHEAST
370KM SOUTHWEST
200KM NORTHWEST
AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
100KM NORTHEAST
130KM SOUTHEAST
170KM SOUTHWEST
100KM NORTHWEST
AND RADIUS OF 65KTS WINDS
60KM NORTHEAST
60KM SOUTHEAST
60KM SOUTHWEST
60KM NORTHWEST
AND FORECAST FOR 170600UTC AT 17.3N 114.7E 955HPA
AND MAX WINDS 42M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
SLY/SE WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN=
ELY/NE WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER
NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA AND BASHI CHANNEL=
WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
MID-EAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 23 TO 33M/S SEAS UP TO 11.0M OVER SEA
NEAR CENTER OF TY RAMMASUN=
WLY WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SOUTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
SOUTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 16 TO 23M/S SEAS UP TO 6.5M OVER SEA
WEST OF LUSON OF THE PHILIPPINES=
FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER BOHAI STARIT AND PARTS OF
YELLOW SEA AND HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM ALSO OVER SEA
SOUTH OF JAPAN AND COASTAL WATERS WEST OF LUSON AND
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERAAND AND MALACCA
STRAIT AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA STRAIT
AND MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT BANADA=
FORECAST=
WINDS FROM 23 TO 30M/S GUST 33 TO 40M/S SEAS
UP TO 11.0M OVER MID-EAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 33 TO 42M/S GUST 46 TO 52M/S SEAS
UP TO 14.0M OVER SEA NEAR CENTER OF TY RAMMASUN=
WINDS FROM 13 TO 20M/S WILL INCREASE FROM 23 TO
28M/S GUST 30 TO 35M/S SEAS UP TO 9.0M OVER
NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
ELY/SE WINDS FROM 18 TO 23M/S GUST FROM 25 TO 30M/S
SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA
SEA=
NW WINDS FROM 14 TO 23M/S GUST FROM 25 TO 30M/S SEAS
UP TO 7.0M OVER MID-WEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 13 TO 20M/S GUST 23M/S SEAS UP TO
5.5M OVER SOUTH PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
ELY WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUST 23M/S SEAS UP TO
5.5M OVER BASHI CHANNEL=
SE WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S GUST 16M/S SEAS UP TO
1.5M OVER SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA
EAST OF TAIWAN=
NE WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
QIONGZHOU STRAIT=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 0600

WWHK82 VHHH 160600
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
TYPHOON (T) RAMMASUN(1409):
RADII OF GALES, STORMS AND HURRICANES: 120NM, 60NM AND 30NM.
SYNOPSIS (160600UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
AT 160600UTC, T RAMMASUN (1409) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960
HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KT WAS CENTERED WITHIN 60 NM OF
15.1N 119.1E AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WNW AT ABOUT 12 KT FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 170600UTC: 17.4N, 115.0E
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6M, 10M AND 14M OVER GALE, STORM, HURRICANE WARNING
AREAS.
SWELL E TO SE 4-7 M OVER SEAS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES.
SWELL NE 3 M OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH CHINA
SEA (SCS) LATER.
SWELL SW 3 M OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF SCS LATER.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQ SH AND TS WITHIN 240 NM FROM CENTRE OF
RAMMASUN(1409).
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

 http://www.passageweather.com/maps/chinasea/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Micronesia/ Marianas/ Iwo Jima: Tropical Depression TAPAH (06W) 020600Z nr 25N 145E, moving NE slowly (JMA) – Updated 020514 1318z

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1405 (TAPAH)(JMA RSMC Tokyo )

TYPHOON TAPAH (06W)(JTWC)

TYPHOON TAPAH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN – NWS GUAM

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satelitte (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

 

WWJP25 RJTD 020600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 42N 149E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1000 HPA
AT 44N 128E MANCHURIA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 44N 128E TO 43N 131E 43N 134E.
COLD FRONT FROM 44N 128E TO 41N 127E 40N 126E 37N 125E 34N 122E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 46N 150E
51N 157E 55N 164E 52N 172E 40N 173E 40N 163E 34N 151E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 54N 163E ALMOST STATIONARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 25N 145E NE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 28N 127E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 35N 170E EAST 15 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

GUAM

Tropical Depression TAPAH (06W) -
Forecast Track and Uncertainty Graphic,
Full-Scale Image

NO active tropical cyclones at this time
Fri, 02 May 2014 22:57:04 ChST

Tropical Cyclones
Guam Alerts
Micronesian Alerts

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

None

Other Reports

Near real-time animated map of global wind and weather:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-214.70,14.53,1071

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-213.73,11.50,567

MARITIME

WWJP25 RJTD 020600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 42N 149E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1000 HPA
AT 44N 128E MANCHURIA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 44N 128E TO 43N 131E 43N 134E.
COLD FRONT FROM 44N 128E TO 41N 127E 40N 126E 37N 125E 34N 122E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 46N 150E
51N 157E 55N 164E 52N 172E 40N 173E 40N 163E 34N 151E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 54N 163E ALMOST STATIONARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 25N 145E NE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 28N 127E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 35N 170E EAST 15 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
METAREA XI

Specialist weather for mariners: passageweather.com

Marianas (Image: wikipedia.org)

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Micronesia/Micronesia/ Marianas/ Guam: Tropical Storm 1403 FAXAI 021200Z near 9.3N 148.8E, Almost stationary (JMA) – Updated 020314 1320

Tropical Storm 1403 (FAXAI) (JMA)

Tropical Storm Three (3W) (JTWC)

TROPICAL STORM FAXAI (03W) CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK (NWS GUAM)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

xx

National Weather Service Forecast OfficeWFO Guam

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/images/guam/errorTrack1.jpg

WTPQ31 PGUM 280910
TCPPQ1

WTPQ31 PGUM 020947
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM FAXAI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032014
800 PM CHST SUN MAR 2 2014

TROPICAL STORM FAXAI (03W) CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST0900 UTCINFORMATION

LOCATION9.6N 148.3E

ABOUT 115 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULUL
ABOUT 285 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 415 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 420 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENTWEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
-

AT 700 PM CHST0900 UTCTHE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAXAI WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
148.3 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM FAXAI IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH. THE TROPICAL
STORM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH AND ACCELERATE IN
FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TUESDAY. FAXAI IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF
GUAM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND SAIPAN LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FAXAI IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURSPOSSIBLY
BECOMING A TYPHOON MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER UP TO 70 MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 AM CHST MONDAY MORNING.

$$

STANKO

Guam Alerts
Micronesian Alerts

Japan Meteorological agency

1403
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.
Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TS 1403 (FAXAI)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 2 March 2014

<Analyses at 02/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N920′(9.3)
E14850′(148.8)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N280km(150NM)
S170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N1130′(11.5)
E14905′(149.1)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N1630′(16.5)
E15005′(150.1)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)
<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N2055′(20.9)
E15255′(152.9)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0314.gif

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03W_020532sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
020600Z NEAR 9.4N 148.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 148.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z 10.1N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z 11.2N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z 13.0N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z 15.7N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 16 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z 21.1N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 22 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z 25.5N 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 9.6N 148.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z
AND 030900Z.//
NNNN

Other Reports

Tropical Storm Faxai, Westpacwx Sunday Update

MARITIME

766
WHGM70 PGUM 020552
MWWGUM

URGENT MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
352 PM CHST SUN MAR 2 2014

PMZ151>154-022100-
/O.EXT.PGUM.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-140304T2000Z/
GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
352 PM CHST SUN MAR 2 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CHST WEDNESDAY

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CHST
WEDNESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARIANAS WATERS.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO
14 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS MAY DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

INEXPERIENCED MARINERSESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELSSHOULD AVOID BOATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. IF TRAVEL BY
BOAT IS NECESSARYEXERCISE CAUTIONESPECIALLY NEAR REEF LINES
AND WHEN ENTERING OR LEAVING HARBORS AND INLETS.

&&

$$

ZIOBRO

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

*** High Surf Warning or Advisory (Marianas) ***

*** High Surf Advisory (Micronesia) ***

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 021200
WARNING 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1403 FAXAI (1403) 994 HPA
AT 09.3N 148.8E CAROLINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 11.5N 149.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 16.5N 150.1E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 20.9N 152.9E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan:Typhoon (28W) LEKIMA 242100Z near 24.4N 144.5E, moving NW at 14 knots. (JTWC) CAT4 (Saffir-Simpson scale) – 241013 2250z

Typhoon (28W JTWC) (1328 JMA)

LEKIMA

is now equivalent to a CATEGORY4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale

…LEKIMA NO LONGER A SUPER TYPHOON...(NWS GUAM)

IWO TO IN NWS GUAM POTENTIAL TRACK AREA

(Scroll down for Japanese translation) (日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

(Image: JMA)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

Okinawa

(Image: JMA) Okinawa on radar (Click image for source & latest animation)

TY 1328 (LEKIMA)
Issued at 22:00 UTC, 24 October 2013

<Analyses at 24/21 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Violent
Center position N2420′(24.3)
E14430′(144.5)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E500km(270NM)
W330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 25/09 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N2730′(27.5)
E14425′(144.4)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 25/21 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N3205′(32.1)
E14655′(146.9)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45km/h(25kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)
<Forecast for 26/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N3830′(38.5)
E15640′(156.7)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55km/h(29kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 27/18 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N4040′(40.7)
E16835′(168.6)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 45km/h(24kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

National Weather Service Forecast OfficeWFO Guam

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/images/guam/errorTrack2.jpg

791

WTPQ32 PGUM 242107

TCPPQ2

BULLETIN

TYPHOON LEKIMA (28W) ADVISORY NUMBER 18

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP282013

800 AM CHST FRI OCT 25 2013

…LEKIMA NO LONGER A SUPER TYPHOON…

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————–

LOCATION…24.4N 144.5E

ABOUT 395 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN

ABOUT 445 MILES NORTH OF PAGAN

ABOUT 470 MILES NORTH OF ALAMAGAN

ABOUT 645 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN AND

ABOUT 755 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

———————-

AT 700 AM CHST…1500 UTC…THE EYE OF TYPHOON LEKIMA WAS LOCATED BY

SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 144.5 EAST.

LEKIMA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. LEKIMA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO

THE NORTH TODAY…THEN CONTINUE TO CURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A

RAPID INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 130 MPH. FURTHER WEAKENING

IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND

OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE

WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 145 MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY

————-

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY THAT WILL BE ISSUED ON TYPHOON LEKIMA BY

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

W.AYDLETT

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2813.gif

WTPN32 PGTW 242100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 28W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 018

02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:

241800Z — NEAR 23.6N 144.6E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 144.6E

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

250600Z — 26.9N 144.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 24 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:

251800Z — 31.3N 146.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 30 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:

260600Z — 35.9N 151.5E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 30 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

261800Z — 39.3N 157.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:

242100Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 144.5E.

TYPHOON 28W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF

IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX

HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL

STORM 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY

UPDATES.//

NNNN

TSR logo

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

Storm Tracker Map

Typhoon LEKIMA: Current TSR Data (link)

Other Reports

Typhoons Francisco and Lekima weaken

Typhoon Francisco has weakened to a tropical storm, and is bringing heavy rains to Japan as it stays offshore and heads northeast, parallel to the coast. Super Typhoon Lekima, which stayed at Category 5 status for a day and a half, has now weakened to a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. Satellite loops show that Lekima is still an impressive typhoon with a prominent eye surrounded by a solid ring of eyewall clouds with very cold cloud tops. Lekima is predicted to recurve to the northeast without affecting any land areas. While Lekima was at peak strength between 12 and 18 UTC on Wednesday, its eye expanded greatly in size while the storm stayed at Category 5 strength, something that is very unusual to see (thanks to Scott Bachmeier of the University of Wisconsin CIMSS for the info and animation.)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Lekima, taken at approximately 01:05 UTC on October 24, 2013. At the time, Lekima was a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph. Image credit: NASA.
” – Dr. Jeff Masters

Lekima Strongest Storm 2013 & Francisco Okinawa Impact

Published on October 23, 2013 by // Westernpacificweather

Today we continue to monitor our two typhoons. One nearing Okinawa and the southern Japanese islands bringing high winds and waves up to 10 meters high. The other well over open ocean but has dropped its pressure to the lowest in 2013. With a hpa of 905 it is the strongest Typhoon this season.

Typhoon Francisco is nearing the southern Japanese islands today bringing with it high winds, large waves and heavy rainfall. Already on Daito Jima winds up to 108kph have been recorded and on Kadena AB in southern Okinawa gust of 30kts have been seen. The worst of the storm is exepcted to impact the islands Wednesday night through Thursday morning.

Storm Warnings are in effect at this time for all of the southern Japanese islands via JMA and the Okinawa Military has set Storm Watch (This means that winds are not forecasted to exceed 50 knots sustained (the criteria for destructive winds) but there still exists a probability of high winds due to the proximity of the storm. High winds may include gusts exceeding 50 knots. )

Typhoon Francisco will start to impact the southern Japanese islands on Wednesday night in to Thursday late morning bringing in high waves at first along with scattered showers sometimes becoming heavy

Vis Sat

and max winds likely at strong Tropical Storm Strength. The worst of the weather will remain on the northern and western coastlines of the Okinawa and the Kagoshima islands taking the brunt of the storm. The worst of the weather will be on Daito Jima where winds up to 140kph is likely along with 10 meter high waves.

Our thoughts at Westpacwx are Winds in the southern half of Okinawa are forecasted to peak at 40-50G65kts on Wednesday overnight through Thursday afternoon. A few gust could even get higher than this nearing the 65kt threshold but most will stay near 55kts. A total of 150mm of rainfall will also fall across the main island of Okinawa.  This will be reserved to the western sea boards and along coastal areas. If you’re in a sheltered area of course the winds will be much lower. The northern and north western half of the island will see the winds for a longer period of time on Thursday along with the Amami islands in Kagoshima.

Through Thursday in to Friday much weaker Francisco will skirt the Japanese coastline with the center of circulation staying off shore.  Typhoon Lekima should have enough influence on Francisco to cause it to swing away from the Japan Coastline. Francisco by that time will have a higher pressure than Lekima. This means it may get absorbed by Lekima thus moving east towards the storm and away from Japan. Still though moisture from Francisco and a Stationary boundary over Japan will bring the main threat of heavy rainfall across the area. The heaviest is forecasted to fall in Shikoku where 250-350mm will be seen along the pacific coast.  Expect low lying urban and river flooding in Tokyo along with dangerous waves near coastal areas. Areas of heaviest rainfall could see the risk of mudslides by Friday Evening in to Saturday Morning.  The worst being on Shikoku the Kii-Pennisula and the Izu islands which are still recovering from the impacts of Typhoon Wipha.

29 people have been confirmed dead and 16 are still missing following the massive record breaking amount of rainfall brought in by Wipha across Izu Oshima. Rescue workers continue to work around the clock in search of the missing.

Nursing facilities and clinics on the island are set to be closed as a precaution ahead of the storm.

Oshima Town officials are also making arrangements to evacuate about 550 elderly and disabled people from the island.

By Saturday Afternoon in to Evening Parts of Hokkaido and northern Honshu could see snowfall from the storm.

Daily Sat Update

Westernpacificweather

MARITIME

918

WHGM70 PGUM 231850

MWWGUM

URGENT MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU

450 AM CHST THU OCT 24 2013

PMZ153-154-240700-

/O.CON.PGUM.SW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-131024T0800Z/

TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-

450 AM CHST THU OCT 24 2013

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT

UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING

SEAS NEAR 10 FEET TODAY WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR

OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT. SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW 10 FEET BY

EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

MARINERS SHOULD AVOID SHOALING AREASWHERE LONG PERIOD SWELL

CAN SHARPEN INTO LARGE BREAKING WAVES. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR

WAVES TO BREAK MUCH FARTHER FROM SHOALING AREAS THAN IS NORMALLY

EXPERIENCED. REMEMBERBREAKING WAVES CAN EASILY CAPSIZE EVEN

LARGER VESSELS.

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 2100

WTJP32 RJTD 242100

WARNING 242100.

WARNING VALID 252100.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 1328 LEKIMA (1328) 915 HPA

AT 24.3N 144.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.

POSITION GOOD.

MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 27.5N 144.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

925 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 32.1N 146.9E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 241800

WARNING AND SUMMARY 241800.

WARNING VALID 251800.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

GALE WARNING.

NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER

WATERS BOUNDED BY 33N 130E 28N 127E 22N 127E 21N 122E 23N 117E 27N

120E 30N 122E 34N 121E 35N 126E 33N 130E.

GALE WARNING.

NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER

WATERS BOUNDED BY 51N 167E 60N 169E 60N 180E 55N 180E 53N 173E 51N

167E.

GALE WARNING.

DEVELOPING LOW 996 HPA

AT 47N 175E SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 25 KNOTS.

WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND

200 MILES ELSEWHERE.

GALE WARNING.

DEVELOPING LOW 1010 HPA

AT 43N 135E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.

EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST

SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.

SUMMARY.

HIGH 1026 HPA AT 44N 152E ESE 15 KT.

HIGH 1016 HPA AT 23N 174E ALMOST STATIONARY.

STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N 129E TO 32N 133E 33N 135E 32N 138E 31N

141E.

REMARKS.

TYPHOON 1328 LEKIMA (1328) 915 HPA AT 23.6N 144.7E : SEE TROPICAL

CYCLONE WARNING.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1327 FRANCISCO (1327) 965 HPA AT 27.0N 130.7E :

SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Japanese (Translated by Google)

日本:台風( 28W ) LEKIMA 242100Z 24.4N 144.5E付近は、 14ノットで北西に移動する。 ( JTWC ) CAT4 (サファシンプソンスケール) – 241013 2250z

台風( 28W JTWC ) ( 1328 JMA )
LEKIMA

今サファシンプソンスケールでCATEGORY4ハリケーンに相当します

… LEKIMAもはやSUPER TYPHOON … ( NWSグアム)

NWSグアムPOTENTIALトラック領域INにIWO

(日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン) (日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン)

(画像: wunderground.com ) 5日間の予報(ソース画像をクリック)

(画像: wunderground.com )衛星(ソース画像をクリック)

気象庁

(画像: JMA )
現在有効な警告/勧告

沖縄

(画像: JMA )レーダー上の沖縄(ソース&最新アニメーション画像をクリック)
TY 1328 ( LEKIMA )
午前22時UTC 、 2013年10月24日に発行した
21分の24 UTC>で<Analyses
1:43 –
暴力的な強度
中心位置N24 20 ‘ (24.3 )
E144 30 ‘ ( 144.5 )
動きNNW毎時25キロ( 14カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧915hPa
中央の55メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 105カラット)
最大突風スピード75メートル/秒( 150カラット)
50カラット風の面積以上ALL150km ( 80nmの)
30カラット風の面積以上E500km ( 270NM )
W330km ( 180nm以下)
25/09 UTC>ため<Forecast
非常に強い強度
確率円の中心位置N27 30 ‘ ( 27.5 )
E144 25 ‘ ( 144.4 )
動きN毎時30キロ( 16カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧925hPa
中央45メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 90カラット)
最大突風スピード65メートル/秒( 130カラット)
確率サークル90キロの半径( 50NM )
ストーム警告エリアALL240km ( 130nmプロセス)
21分の25 UTC>ため<Forecast
強い強度
確率サークルN32 05 ‘の中心位置(32.1 )
E146 55 ‘ ( 146.9 )
動きNNE毎時45キロ( 25カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧950hPa
中央の40メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 80カラット)
最大突風スピード60メートル/秒( 115カラット)
確率160キロの円の半径( 85NM )
暴風雨警報エリアALL300km ( 160NM )
18分の26 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
確率サークルN38の中心位置30 ‘ ( 38.5 )
E156 40 ‘ ( 156.7 )
動きNE毎時55キロ( 29カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧980hPa
中央30メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 55カラット)
最大突風スピード40メートル/秒( 80カラット)
確率330キロの円の半径( 180nm以下)
ストーム警告エリアALL440km ( 240NM )
18分の27 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
LOW
確率円の中心位置N40 40 ‘ ( 40.7 )
E168 35 ‘ ( 168.6 )
動きENE毎時45キロ( 24カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧1000hPa
最大持続風速18メートル/秒( 35カラット)
最大突風スピード25メートル/秒( 50カラット)
確率460キロの円の半径( 250nmの)

国立測候所予測OfficeWFOグアム

791

WTPQ32 PGUM 242107

TCPPQ2

BULLETIN

TYPHOON LEKIMA ( 28W ) ADVISORY番号18

国立気象SERVICE TIYAN GU WP282013

800 AM CHST金2013年10月25日

… LEKIMAもはやSUPER TYPHOON …

時計と警告

——————–

なし。

700の概要CHST AM … 2100 UTC … INFORMATION

———————————————–

LOCATION … 24.4N 144.5E

395マイルほどアグリハン島の北北西

PAGAN OF 445 ABOUT MILES NORTH

アラマガン島の約470 kmノース

645マイルほどサイパン北と

グアム755 ABOUT MILES NORTH

最大持続WINDS … 130 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT … NW OR 16 MPH AT 320 DEGREES

考察および展望

———————-

700 AT CHST … 1500 UTC午前… TYPHOON LEKIMA OF EYEはBYに位置していた

LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH NEAR衛星…経度144.5 EAST 。

LEKIMAは16 MPHでNORTHWEST動いている。 LEKIMAはに向けることが期待され

NORTH TODAYは… THEN WITH北東に向かってカーブしていき

土曜日の朝までに前進速度が急激に増加。

最大持続WINDSは130 MPHに減少しました。さらなる弱体化

NEXT 24時間を通して期待されています。 TYPHOON強風はEXTEND

65 CENTER FROM MILES … AND TROPICAL STORM力UP外側

WINDSは、最大145マイルを引き出さ。

NEXT ADVISORY

————-

これはBY TYPHOON LEKIMAに発行されますLAST顧問です

国立測候所。

$ $

W.AYDLETT

合同台風警報センター( JTWC )

Google Earthのグラフィックオーバーレイ

WTPN32 PGTW 242100

MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN真珠湾HI / /

SUBJ /熱帯低気圧の警告/ /

RMKS /

1 。 TYPHOON 28W ( LEKIMA )警告NR 018

NORTHWESTPAC IN 02 ACTIVE熱帯低気圧

MAXはONE- MINUTE平均に基づいてWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

警告POSITION :

241800Z — NEAR 23.6N 144.6E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 14 KTS AT 320 DEGREES

030 NM以内の正確な位置

POSITIONは、衛星のそば中心を基準に

PRESENT WIND配分:

115 KT 、突風140 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

064 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

23.6N 144.6E : POSITを繰り返す

予測:

AT VALID 12時間:

250600Z — 26.9N 144.4E

110 KT 、突風135 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

064 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

034 KTのWINDS OF RADIUS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

24人事POSITへのベクトル: 025 DEG / 24 KTS

AT VALID 24時間:

251800Z — 31.3N 146.7E

MAX風速 – 100 KT 、突風125 KT

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

温帯BECOMING

064 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

36人事POSITへのベクトル: 040 DEG / 30 KTS

VALID AT 36時間:

260600Z — 35.9N 151.5E

MAX風速 – 080 KT 、突風100 KT

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

温帯BECOMING

064 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

48人事POSITへのベクトル: 055 DEG / 30 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK :

AT VALID 48時間:

261800Z — 39.3N 157.8E

055 KT 、突風070 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

温帯

備考:

24.4N 144.5E NEAR 242100Z POSITION 。

約194 NM東南東LOCATED TYPHOON 28W ( LEKIMA )

IWO TOは過去6年以上14ノットで北西追跡して

HOURS 。 241800Zで最大有義波高は50フィートです。次

250300Z 、 250900Z 、 251500Z AND 252100Z AT警告。 TROPICALを参照してください

SIX – HOURLY FOR STORM 26W ( FRANCISCO )警告( WTPN33 PGTW )

UPDATES 。 / /

NNNN

TSRのロゴ
熱帯性低気圧リスク(TSR)

ストームトラッカー地図

台風LEKIMA :現在TSRデータ(リンク)
その他のレポート
台風サンフランシスコとLekimaは弱まる

“台風フランシスコは、熱帯低気圧に弱まっており、それがオフショアとどまり、北東ヘッドとして、日本に海岸に平行に大雨をもたらしている。日半は、カテゴリ5の状態に滞在したスーパー台風Lekimaは、現在弱まっている毎時150マイルの風とカテゴリ4嵐。に衛星ループLekimaはまだ非常に冷たい雲のトップスと眼の壁雲の固体リングに囲まれた著名な目で印象的な台風であることを示している。 Lekimaは、任意の土地に影響を与えずに北東に後ろに反らすことが予測される嵐がカテゴリで5強、参照するには非常に異例のことだ何か(ウィスコンシンCIMSS大学のスコットBachmeierおかげのため滞在中のエリア。 Lekimaは水曜日に12と18 UTC間のピーク強度であったがが、その目のサイズが大幅に拡大情報とアニメーション。 )

図3 。 2013年10月24日に約1:05 UTCに取らスーパー台風LekimaのMODIS衛星画像、 。当時、 Lekimaは毎時160マイルの風とカテゴリ5のスーパー台風だった。画像クレジット: NASA 。
” – ジェフマスターズ博士
Lekima最強ストーム2013 &サンフランシスコ沖縄インパクト

robspeta / / Westernpacificweatherによって2013年10月23日に公開

“今日、我々は我々の2台風を監視し続けています。 One近づい沖縄、高さ10メートルの強風と波を育てる南の日本列島。外洋上の他のよくしかし、2013年に最低のへの圧力を減少している。 905のHPAで、それは最強の台風この季節です。

台風フランシスコはそれで強風、大きな波や大雨をもたらす南の日本列島今日に近づいています。すでに大東の島は108kphまで巻きが記録されており、嘉手納AB上30kts南部沖縄突風で見てきた。嵐の最悪は、木曜日の朝を通して島水曜日の夜に影響するexepctedされています。

嵐の警告は”ストームウォッチ” (風が持続50ノット( “破壊的な風”の基準)を超えると予測されていませんが、ことを意味を設定している気象庁と沖縄の軍事経由南の日本列島のすべてについて、この時点で有効になっているそれでも50ノットを超える突風が含まれるstorm.強風の接近のために強風の確率が存在する。 )

台風フランシスコは時々重くなって散乱シャワーと一緒に最初に高波持ち込み昼前木曜日に水曜日の夜に南の日本列島に影響を与え始めます

VIは、土

と強力な熱帯低気圧強度でおそらく最大の風。天候最悪のは嵐の矛先を取って沖縄と鹿児島の島の北部と西部の海岸線上に残ります。天候の最悪の風、最大140kphは、10メートルの高さの波と一緒に可能性がある大東島になります。

Westpacwxで私たちの思考は、沖縄の南半分で風木曜日の午後を通して一夜水曜日に40 – 50G65ktsでピークと予測されています。少数の突風も、これは65カラットのしきい値に近づいていますが、ほとんど55ktsの近くに滞在するよりも高くなる可能性があります。降雨量150ミリメートルの合計も、これは西の海ボードに予約及び沿岸地域に沿ってされOkinawa.本島全体に落ちるでしょう。もしyouの風がはるかに低くなりますもちろん保護された領域に再。島の北部と北西半分は鹿児島の奄美の島とともに木曜日に時間の長い期間のために風を見ることができます。

木曜日までFridayはるかに弱いサンフランシスコにshore.台風Lekima 、それが日本の海岸線から離れてスイングさせるためにサンフランシスコに十分な影響力を持っている必要がありオフ滞在循環の中心に日本の海岸線をスカートになります。その時間でサンフランシスコLekimaよりも高い圧力を持つことになります。これは、 Lekimaこうして離れて日本から嵐に向かって東へ移動し、に吸収されるかもしれませんことを意味します。まだけれどもサンフランシスコからの水分や日本以上静止境界領域にわたって大雨の主な脅威をもたらすでしょう。重いは250〜350ミリメートルが太平洋沿岸に沿って見れる場所四国に落ちると予測されています。 は、沿岸地域の近くに危険な波と一緒に東京の低地の都市と河川洪水を期待。重い降雨量の地域は土曜日の朝に金曜日の夕方までに土砂崩れの危険性を見ることができました。 は最悪、四国紀伊Pennisula 、まだ台風Wiphaの影響から回復している伊豆島にあること。

29人が死亡が確認されており、 16はまだ伊豆大島越えWiphaによってもたらさ降雨量の膨大な記録破りの量以下の不足しています。救助隊員が行方不明の検索で時計を回避し続けています。

島の介護施設や診療所は、先に嵐の予防措置として閉鎖されるように設定されている。

大島町の職員も配置が島から550高齢者や障害者について、避難を行っている。

北海道と本州北部の夕べ部品にで土曜日の午後に嵐からの降雪見ることができました。

毎日更新して土

” – Westernpacificweather
MARITIME

918

WHGM70 PGUM 231850

MWWGUM

URGENT – 海洋気象のMESSAGE

国立気象SERVICE TIYAN GU

450 AM CHST木2013年10月24日

PMZ153 – 154から240700 –

/ O.CON.PGUM.SW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z – 131024T0800Z /

テニアン近海- SAIPAN沿岸WATERS –

450 AM CHST木2013年10月24日

…危険SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFTのアドバイザリは有効なまま

午後6時のCHST UNTIL今晩…

10 FEET TODAY NEAR SEASはFOR危険な状態を生成します

小型船舶のオペレータ。 SEASはBY 10フィートを下回るべきである(SHOULD)

EVENING 。

準備アクション/予防…

マリナーズの領域を浅水避けるべき…長い期間はSWELL WHERE

LARGE破り波にSHARPEN CAN 。 ITのは珍しいことではありません

通常はTHAN波が浅水地域からMUCH遠く破る

経験した。 REMEMBER …砕波することも容易に転覆CAN

太い血管。
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 2100

WTJP32は242100をRJTD

WARNING 242100 。

VALID 252100警告。

台風警報。

TYPHOON 1328 LEKIMA ( 1328 ) 915 HPA

24.3N 144.5E小笠原松濤はNORTHNORTHWEST 14ノットMOVING AT 。

良いポジション。

MAXは、中央付近の105ノットの風。

50 KNOTのWINDS OVER 80マイルの半径。

30 OVER KNOTのWINDSの半径は270 kmイースト半円AND 180マイル

ELSEWHERE 。

50マイル半径27.5N 144.4E AT 250900UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

925 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 90ノット。

85マイルの半径32.1N 146.9E AT 252100UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

950 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 80ノット。

気象庁。 =

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 241800

WARNINGと要約241800 。

VALID 251800警告。

警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。

GALE警告。

OVER実勢30〜40 KNOTS北東WINDS TO北風

33N 130Eで囲まWATERS 28N 127E 22N 127E 21N 122E 23N 117E 27N

120E 30N 122E 34N 121E 35N 126E 33Nの130E 。

GALE警告。

OVER実勢30〜40 KNOTS北東WINDS TO北風

51N 167E 60N 169E 60N 180E 55N 180E 53N 173E 51Nで囲まWATERS

167E 。

GALE警告。

LOW 996 HPAを開発

47N ATアリューシャンOF 175E SEA SOUTHはEASTSOUTHEAST 25ノットMOVING 。

WINDSはLOW南西部の600マイル以内に30 〜35ノット半円AND

ELSEWHERE 200マイル。

GALE警告。

LOW 1010 HPAの開発

JAPAN 、北東15ノットを移動する43N 135E SEA AT 。

LOW SOUTHEAST OF 600マイル以内に期待WINDS 30 〜35 KNOTS

半円AND 300マイルELSEWHERE NEXT 12時間。

概要。

44N 152E ESE 15 KT AT HIGH 1026 HPA 。

ALMOST STATIONARY 23N 174E AT HIGH 1016 HPA 。

31N 129E FROM 32N 133E 33Nに対して静止FRONT 135E 32N 138E 31N

141E 。

REMARKS 。

TYPHOON 1328 LEKIMA ( 1328 ) 23.6N 144.7E AT 915 HPAは: TROPICAL SEE

CYCLONE警告。

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1327サンフランシスコ( 1327 ) 27.0N 130.7E AT 965 HPA :

熱帯低気圧の警告が表示されます。

気象庁。 =

Western Pacific: Storm could bring the risk of flooding across the Philippines and Japan – 040613 1840z

Possible Tropical System Yagi / Invest 96W Forecast

(Video credit: WestPacWx)

Published on 4 Jun 2013

Invest area 96W is showing more and more potential today for possible signs of development and being named the first tropical system of the season. This storm could bring the risk of flooding across the Philippines, and Japan if some of the models hold true of the storms path. So with that said today we break down the outlook of this developing storm system and whom it may be impacting.

Filipino:

Nai-publish sa Hunyo 4, 2013

Mamuhunan area 96W ay nagpapakita ng higit pa at higit pang mga potensyal na ngayon para sa posibleng mga palatandaan ng pag-unlad at pagiging pinangalanan ang unang tropikal na sistema ng panahon. Bagyo Ito ay maaaring dalhin ang mga panganib ng pagbaha sa buong Pilipinas, at Japan kung ang ilan sa mga modelo ng tunay na hawakan ng mga landas bagyo. Kaya may nagsabi na ngayon kami masira ang tanawan ng pagbuo ng sistema ng bagyo at kanino maaari itong makaapekto.

Japanese:

2013年6月4日に公開

96Wは、開発の可能性の兆候を、より多くの潜在的な今日を示しており、シーズンの最初の熱帯システムを命名さ面積を投資。モデルのいくつかは、嵐のパスの真の保持している場合、この嵐は、フィリピン全体で洪水の危険性、そして日本をもたらす可能性があります。だから我々はこの開発嵐システムの見通しを打破し、誰にそれが影響することが今日言ったと。

 

Manila Typhoon CenterUPDATE #2 | WP15 (INVEST 96W) | 0500 PM 1300Z TUE 4 JUNE 2013

(Image: Manila Typhoon Center)

Tropical Disturbance WP15 (INVEST 96W) located South of Guam, is still being monitored for possible development as it drifts slowly to the North…

LPA INFO | at 2 PM today, disturbance 2013CA014 (95W) was located at 4.1°N 148.5°E… about 510 km Southwest of Chuuk Island… or 1120 km South-Southeast of Guam USA | Maximum winds within the disturbance remain at 15 Knots or 25 KPH.

NOTES | WP15 (95W) is in an area of low wind shear and high sea surface temperatures… Forecast models are now almost unanimously in agreement in developing this disturbance in the next few days, forecast to track the Northern Philippine Sea

MTC ANALYSIS | MTC still has WP15 having FAIR potential of development into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours with a 34% chance.

ManilaTC

ManilaTyphoonCenter

Filipino:

Tropical gulo WP15 (MAMUHUNAN 96W) na matatagpuan South ng Guam, ay prino-sinusubaybayan para sa posibleng pag-unlad bilang ito drifts dahan-dahan sa North

LPA INFO | sa 14:00 ngayon, gulo 2013CA014 (95W) ay matatagpuan sa 4.1 N 148.5 E | tungkol sa 510 kilometro Timog Kanluran ng Chuuk Island o 1120 km TimogTimog ng Guam USA | Pinakamataas na hangin sa loob ng gulo manatili sa Knots 15 o 25 KPH.

NOTA | WP15 (95W) ay nasa isang lugar ng mababang wind gupitin at mataas ibabaw ng dagat temperatura Pagtataya sa mga modelo ay ngayon halos nang walang tutol sa kasunduan sa pagbuo ng gulo na ito sa susunod na ilang araw, magtaya upang subaybayan ang Northern Philippine Sea

MTC PAGSUSURI | MTC ay mayroon pa ring WP15 makatarungang pagkakaroon ng potensyal na pag-unlad sa isang Tropical bagyo sa loob ng susunod na 24 oras na may isang 34% na posibilidad.

ManilaTC

ManilaTyphoonCenter

Japanese:

それは北にゆっくりと漂うように南グアムの位置熱帯擾乱WP15は(96Wを投資)、まだ可能な開発のために監視されている…

LPA INFOは|2 PM本日は、妨害2013CA014(95W)が4.1Aに位置していたN148.5°EA|チューク島の510キロ南西約…または1120キログアムUSAの南南東は|妨害内の最大風速は15ノットまたは25 KPHのまま。

NOTESは| WP15(95W)は、低風せん断および高い海面温度の領域にある…予測モデルは、北フィリピン海を追跡するために予測、今後数日でこの妨害を開発する契約に現在ではほとんど満場一致である

MTC分析| MTCはまだ34%の確率で次の24時間以内に台風に発達のWP15持つFAIR可能性を秘めています。

ManilaTC

ManilaTyphoonCenter

10 crew forced to abandon ship due to shipboard fire 700 miles W of Guam in the Pacific Ocean

The Coast Guard, U.S. Navy and Automated Mutual Assistance Vessel Rescue partners, coordinated in the rescue of 10 crewmembers forced to abandon ship due to a shipboard fire 700 miles west of Guam Saturday.

Coast Guard Sector Guam watchstanders received an initial alert from an Emergency Position Indicating Radio Beacon from the Hsin Man Chun, a 70-foot Taiwanese fishing vessel, at 4:30 p.m. Saturday.

Watchstanders then received a call from rescue coordination center Taipei, China reporting that a sister ship of the Hsin Man Chun received a radio call indicating the crew was planning to abandon ship.

A Navy P-3 Orion long-range search aircraft from Patrol Squadron 1 stationed at Kadena Air Base, Japan, overflew the vessel and reported

eight crewmembers in a life raft and two more on the bridge of the burning vessel.

The P-3 crew deployed two life rafts to assist the crewmembers that remained behind. They passed the location of the distressed crewmembers to the Semirio, a Marshallese flagged bulk carrier diverted to the area by the Coast Guard.

The Semirio was only 40 miles away from the distressed vessel and was asked to assist. Once on scene, the 950-foot bulk carrier launched a small boat and successfully rescued all 10 crewmembers. The Semirio is one of many foreign flagged vessels operating in the Pacific that voluntarily participate in the AMVER System.

AMVER, sponsored by the U.S. Coast Guard, is a unique, computer-based, and voluntary global ship reporting system used worldwide by search and rescue authorities to arrange for assistance to persons in distress at sea. With AMVER, rescue coordinators can identify participating ships in the area of distress and divert the best-suited ship or ships to respond.”

http://www.cruiseindustrynews.com  21 April 2012