Philippines: Typhoon NOUL (06W)/ DODONG further weakened and accelerated as it moves Northeastward (PAGASA) – 110515 1245z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon NOUL SIX (06W)/ DODONG in PH

Typhoon “#DodongPH” has further weakened and accelerated as it moves Northeastward (PAGASA)

(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 38 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1506-00 N11

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Analysis Chart (PDF)

TY 1506 (NOUL)
Issued at 10:45 UTC, 11 May 2015

Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°20′(22.3°)
E122°50′(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL80km(45NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°25′(22.4°)
E122°55′(122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL80km(45NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°35′(23.6°)
E124°00′(124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area ALL140km(75NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°05′(26.1°)
E126°50′(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55km/h(29kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL180km(95NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°20′(28.3°)
E129°50′(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 65km/h(34kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N30°30′(30.5°)
E133°35′(133.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 70km/h(38kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 240km(130NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

PHILIPPINES

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

dodong_15051106

5:00 p.m. Weather Bulletin in pdf 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 06W (Noul) Warning #34
Issued at 11/0900Z

wp0615 n11

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/06W_110532sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 034
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
110600Z — NEAR 21.8N 122.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 025 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 122.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 25.2N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 36 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 29.6N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 41 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 34.6N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 43 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 40.2N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 123.5E.
TYPHOON 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z,
120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 May, 2015 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NOUL (06W) currently located near 21.8 N 122.6 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Typhoon Noul Nears Southern Japan Monday Near Landfall Outlook (WestPacWx)

Typhoon Noul continues to track North away from the Philippines and towards Japan this Monday evening setting the stage for a early season typhoon in the southern Japanese islands including the island of Okinawa.  Winds will max out there during the morning hours as the storm races by being pulled quickly north east by a passing cold front. At this time JMA is warning of winds gusting up to 180kph in Okinawa, …

Read More

Other Reports

Typhoon Dodong (Noul) slammed into the northern tip of the Philippines May 10, prompting almost 3,000 people in Northern Luzon to flee their homes and knocking out power in Cagayan. It has since weakened, and the state weather bureau said the typhoon will be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Tuesday, May 12. It’s expected to move north towards Japan, the government weather station said.

Read the full story on Rappler.

Read the full story on evacuation on Rappler.

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 110900

WTJP31 RJTD 110900
WARNING 110900.
WARNING VALID 120900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1506 NOUL (1506) 955 HPA
AT 22.0N 122.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 26.1N 126.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 30.5N 133.6E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 110600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 110600.
WARNING VALID 120600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 40N 167E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 40N 167E TO 39N 170E 38N 172E.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 172E TO 36N 174E 33N 176E.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 172E TO 31N 165E 25N 153E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
500 MILES ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER LOW 994 HPA AT 38N 160E
MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 36N 123E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 36N 123E TO 34N 125E 31N 128E.
COLD FRONT FROM 36N 123E TO 30N 120E 26N 115E 25N 111E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 43N 146E 47N 152E
55N 162E 53N 180E 30N 180E 30N 170E 37N 160E 40N 150E 43N 146E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 47N 146E ESE 20 KT.
LOW 998 HPA AT 57N 151E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 35N 142E ESE 20 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1506 NOUL (1506) 950 HPA AT 21.6N 122.3E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1507 DOLPHIN (1507) 998 HPA AT 09.8N 160.0E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

GALE WARNING # 08 (FINAL)

FOR: Strong to gale force winds associated with Typhoon “DODONG”.
Issued at: 5:00 pm today, 11 May 2015
Strong to gale force winds has weakened.

SEABOARDS

WEATHER

WIND FORCE
(KPH / KNOTS)

SEA CONDITION

WAVE HEIGHT (meters)

THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF NORTHERN LUZON
(Isabela and Eastern Coast of Cagayan)

Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms

(35– 59) /(19 – 32)

Moderate to rough

2.1 to 4.0

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are alerted against moderate to rough seas.

This is the final gale warning.

PAGASA

Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

One thought on “Philippines: Typhoon NOUL (06W)/ DODONG further weakened and accelerated as it moves Northeastward (PAGASA) – 110515 1245z (GMT/UTC)

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