China/Taiwan: Severe Tropical Storm Nepartak (1601, 02W) 082100Z POSITION near 23.7N 119.5E, moving N 01 Knot (JTWC) – Updated 08 Jul 2016 2040Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm  Nepartak/ Butchoy in PH (1601, 02W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 18 FEET

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground Satellite

Image: @wunderground Satellite

 Japan Meteorological agency

1601-00 8

 

1601-00 enlarged.png 8

STS 1601 (Nepartak)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 8 July 2016

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 8 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N23°40′ (23.7°)
E119°25′ (119.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 330 km (180 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 9 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25°30′ (25.5°)
E117°20′ (117.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 10 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N28°10′ (28.2°)
E117°30′ (117.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 02W (Nepartak) Warning #24
Issued at 08/2100Z

wp0216 8a

WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 024
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 23.4N 119.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 119.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 24.4N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 25.3N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 26.2N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 27.3N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 119.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at  6 Jul, 2016 6:00 GMT

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jul, 2016 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NEPARTAK is currently located near 23.4 N 119.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). NEPARTAK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Image: TSR

Image: TSR

 

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 081800

WTJP21 RJTD 081800
WARNING 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1601 NEPARTAK (1601) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON
980 HPA
AT 23.7N 119.4E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 25.5N 117.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 28.2N 117.5E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

END

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/ South China Sea: Typhoon Mujigae 22W 03/1200Z 19.5N 113.4E, moving WNW 11 knots (JMA) – Published 03 Oct 2015 1500z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Mujigae 22W

(=CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1522
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TY 1522 (MUJIGAE)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 3 October 2015

<Analyses at 03/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N19°30′(19.5°)
E113°25′(113.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°35′(20.6°)
E111°35′(111.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N21°40′(21.7°)
E109°40′(109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23°30′(23.5°)
E108°20′(108.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 06/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N25°10′(25.2°)
E108°00′(108.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

HKO_banner_eng

tctrack_1519_en

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

(Updated at 20:45 on 3 Oct HKT)

In the past few hours, outer rainbands of Majigae brought heavy squally showers to Hong Kong. Winds occasionally reached gale force in the offshore areas and on high ground. Heavy squally showers are expected to continue to affect Hong Kong in the next few hours.

According to the present forecast track, Mujigae will be closest to Hong Kong from midnight to early tomorrow morning. Mujigae is expected to skirt around 300 kilometres southwest of Hong Kong.

Unless Mujigae adopts a more northerly track or intensifies significantly, the chance of issuing the Gale or Storm Signal No. 8 is not high. However, winds will occasionally reach gale force over the southwestern part of Hong Kong. The Observatory will closely monitor the evolution of Mujigae.

Rainstorm Warning Bulletin

Updated at 21:45

Amber Rainstorm Warning Signal Special Announcement issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 9:45 p.m.

The Rainstorm Warning Signal is now Amber. This means that heavy rain has fallen or is expected to fall generally over Hong Kong, exceeding 30 millimetres in an hour, and is likely to continue.

There will be flooding in some low-lying and poorly drained areas. People who are likely to be affected should take necessary precautions to reduce their exposure to risk posed by the heavy rain and flooding.

Heavy rain may bring about flash floods. People should stay away from watercourses. People who are likely to be affected by flooding should take necessary precautions to avoid losses.

Please listen to radio or watch television for traffic conditions and further announcements on the rainstorm.

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Oct, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon MUJIGAE (22W) currently located near 19.5 N 113.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

HKO – Hong Kong

Bulletin issued at 21:30 HKT 03/Oct/2015

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 031200 UTC, Typhoon Mujigae (1522) with central pressure 965 hectopascals was centred within 30 nautical miles of one nine point five degrees north (19.5 N) one one three point four degrees east (113.4 E) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 10 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 70 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 120 nautical miles.
Radius of over 47 knot winds 60 nautical miles.
Radius of over 63 knot winds 30 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 270 nautical miles over northern semicircle, 240 nautical miles elsewhere.

Forecast position and intensity at 041200 UTC
Two one point five degrees north (21.5 N)
One zero nine point nine degrees east (109.9 E)
Maximum winds 65 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 051200 UTC
Two three point eight degrees north (23.8 N)
One zero eight point four degrees east (108.4 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 061200 UTC
Dissipated over land.

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200
WTJP21 RJTD 031200
WARNING 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1522 MUJIGAE (1522) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970
HPA
AT 19.5N 113.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 20.6N 111.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 21.7N 109.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 23.5N 108.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 25.2N 108.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here: METAREA XI

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/ Japan/ Taiwan/ China: Typhoon Dujuan (21W) 25/2100Z near 20.5N 130.7E, moving NNW 7 knots (JTWC) – Updated 25 Sept 2015 2053z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Dujuan (21W)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Ishigakijima, Okinawa, Japan, Taiwan and China beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 25 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1521-00 25

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

TY 1521 (DUJUAN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 25 September 2015

<Analyses at 25/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N19°55′(19.9°)
E131°20′(131.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°05′(22.1°)
E129°05′(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°20′(23.3°)
E126°35′(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°00′(25.0°)
E122°50′(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 21W (Dujuan) Warning #17
Issued at 25/2100Z

wp2115 25

21W_250532sams

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251800Z — NEAR 20.2N 131.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 131.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 21.3N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 22.0N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 22.5N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 23.1N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z — 24.6N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 26.1N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 27.6N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 130.7E.
TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 417 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND
262100Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

Other Reports

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 25 Sep, 2015 18:00 GMT

Typhoon DUJUAN (21W) currently located near 20.2 N 131.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201521W 25A

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

15092603

WWJP25 RJTD 251800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 142E 42N 140E
44N 145E 51N 157E 60N 163E 60N 180E 38N 180E 40N 160E 40N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 39N 137E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 34N 146E EAST 20 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 52N 167E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 994 HPA AT 44N 170E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 14N 147E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 48N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 26N 162E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 132E TO 32N 135E 33N 141E 34N 146E 34N 150E
31N 153E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1521 DUJUAN (1521) 970 HPA AT 20.1N 131.0E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0900

WTJP21 RJTD 251800
WARNING 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1521 DUJUAN (1521) 970 HPA
AT 20.1N 131.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 22.1N 128.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 23.2N 125.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 24.6N 121.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/ Japan: Typhoon Kilo 03C 072100Z POSITION nr 25.9N 160.8E, WNW at 12 knots (JTWC) – Published 07 Sept 2015 2055z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Kilo 1517 03C

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 30 FEET (JTWC)

Typhoon Kilo

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

Typhoon Kilo

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1517

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

TY 1517 (KILO)
Issued at 19:05 UTC, 7 September 2015
<Analyses at 07/18 UTC>
Scale –
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°35′(25.6°)
E162°05′(162.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more N190km(100NM)
S130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N560km(300NM)
S330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 08/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°35′(26.6°)
E159°05′(159.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area N310km(170NM)
S240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°55′(27.9°)
E155°55′(155.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°20′(31.3°)
E151°00′(151.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N35°25′(35.4°)
E148°50′(148.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)

Unit:

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/cp0315.gif

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 073
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071800Z — NEAR 25.6N 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 161.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 26.6N 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 27.9N 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 29.4N 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 31.4N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 35.9N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 19 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 43.2N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 160.8E.
TYPHOON 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1265 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (ETAU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1517 KILO (1517) 955 HPA
AT 25.6N 162.1E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 26.6N 159.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 27.9N 155.9E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 31.3N 151.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 35.4N 148.8E WITH 210 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Kyushu/ Japan/ South Korea: Typhoon Goni (16W) 24/1500Z 30.5N 129.5E, moving NNE at 20 knots (JMA) – Updated 24 Aug 2015 1725Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Goni / Ineng 16W

( = CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 40 FEET- JTWC

Okinawa, Kyushu, JAPAN BEWARE!!

 Taiwan, South Korea, North Korea, Russia & China be aware!

Landfall over Kyushu is expected close to midnight tonight UK time (2300 GMT/UTC)

– UK Met Office

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1515-00 24 1600z
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15082421

CLICK IMAGE FOR LATEST WARNINGS

CLICK IMAGE FOR LATEST WARNINGS

TY 1515 (GONI)
Issued at 16:45 UTC, 24 August 2015

<Analyses at 24/16 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N30°50′(30.8°)
E129°35′(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE170km(90NM)
NW90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL460km(250NM)
<Estimate for 24/17 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N31°05′(31.1°)
E129°50′(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE170km(90NM)
NW90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL460km(250NM)
<Forecast for 24/21 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N32°25′(32.4°)
E130°20′(130.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area SE200km(110NM)
NW140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 25/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N34°35′(34.6°)
E131°00′(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area SE220km(120NM)
NW170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 25/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N35°50′(35.8°)
E131°25′(131.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area SE240km(130NM)
NW190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 25/15 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N36°55′(36.9°)
E131°35′(131.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area SE240km(130NM)
NW200km(110NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 16W (Goni) Warning #43
Issued at 24/1500Z

wp1615 24

wp16152409

16W_241132sair

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 043
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
241200Z — NEAR 29.6N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 035 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.6N 128.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 33.1N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 36.2N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 38.9N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 16 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 42.0N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 30.5N 129.2E.
TYPHOON 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 40
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Prognostic Reasoning

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Aug, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon GONI (16W) currently located near 29.6 N 128.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201516W 24

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

Typhoon Goni set for landfall over Japan – UK Met Office

24 August 2015 – The very active typhoon season in the Pacific Ocean has continued with intense typhoons Goni and Atsani tracking across the ocean during the last week

Whilst Atsani has stayed out at sea, Goni moved very close to the northern tip of the Philippines before making a sharp turn northwards. The typhoon then passed close to Taiwan before starting to move across the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. On Sunday the eye of Typhoon Goni passed over the island of Ishigaki with wind gusts of over 150 mph being recorded.

Goni is still a powerful typhoon as it accelerates north-eastwards towards south-western parts of mainland Japan. Landfall over Kyushu is expected close to midnight tonight UK time (2300 GMT/UTC) . Wind speeds in excess of 100 mph and heavy rain is expected bringing the risk of structural damage, damaging waves, flooding and landslides.

Typhoons Goni and Atsani on 20 August 2015. Image courtesy of The National Institute of Informatics

Typhoons Goni and Atsani on 20 August 2015. Image courtesy of The National Institute of Informatics 

The latest typhoons are part of an extremely active season for tropical cyclones across the whole Pacific Ocean brought about by the developing strong El Niño. In total there have been 28 tropical storms across the northern Pacific this year which includes 18 typhoons or hurricanes (different names for the same features in the west and east Pacific). 13 of the typhoons or hurricanes have been strong enough to be classified as ‘major’ on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Meanwhile the Atlantic has been relatively quiet with just four tropical cyclones so far this season. However, in the last few days Danny became the first hurricane of the season and, despite being downgraded to a tropical storm, is bringing windy and wet conditions to the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean.

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific are produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via on Twitter.

Last updated: 24 August 2015

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 241500

WTJP31 RJTD 241500
WARNING 241500.
WARNING VALID 251500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1515 GONI (1515) 940 HPA
AT 30.5N 129.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 34.6N 131.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 36.9N 131.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY..=

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

TAIWAN/ CHINA: Typhoon Soudelor (13W) 081500Z POSITION near 24.9N 118.9E, moving NW at 08 knots (JTWC) – Updated 080815 1506Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Soudelor (13W)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 26 FEET (JTWC)

TAIWAN AND CHINA BEWARE!

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

Japan Meteorological agency

1513-00 8
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15080821

TY 1513 (SOUDELOR)
Issued at 13:00 UTC, 8 August 2015

<Analyses at 08/12 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N24°55′(24.9°)
E119°30′(119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E650km(350NM)
W500km(270NM)
<Forecast for 09/00 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N26°20′(26.3°)
E117°35′(117.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area NE220km(120NM)
SW190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 09/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27°55′(27.9°)
E116°35′(116.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N30°50′(30.8°)
E116°00′(116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

CWB Taiwan

CWB TAIWAN (Click here)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 13W (Soudelor) Warning #38
Issued at 08/1500Z

wp1315 8

13W_081132sair

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 038
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 24.6N 119.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 119.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 25.9N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 27.6N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 118.9E.
TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Aug, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon SOUDELOR (13W) currently located near 24.6 N 119.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Ganzhou (25.7 N, 115.0 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201513W 8

News Reports

Tropical Storm in Mariana Islands

President Barack Obama has declared the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands a disaster area and is ordering federal aid to help the U.S. territory in the aftermath of a destructive typhoon. The White House on Thursday announced the disaster declaration for Typhoon Soudelor, which destroyed homes, toppled trees and snapped utility poles over the weekend on the 48-square-mile island of Saipan. Damage surveys were ongoing, but the commonwealth remained without electricity and running water, and residents were rationing fuel. Most major roadways have been cleared of uprooted trees and debris, Saipan resident Glen Hunter said. “The morning after the typhoon, you could not get anywhere because of the power poles … and trees that fell on the ground,” lifelong Saipan resident Lucy Selepeo said. “The tin houses, practically everything just flew away. The only thing you can see from the houses are the foundations.” Selepeo said concrete homes that withstood the winds, like hers, are flooded. More than 500 people on Saipan were in shelters, according to the Red Cross. Officials distributed water at various stations across the island. Still, signs of aid remained scarce going into the fifth day after the storm, Selepeo said. “I encountered a family of eight who slept on the beach in their car because their home flew away,” she said. About 50,000 people live on the commonwealth’s four populated islands, with most residing on Saipan, which took the brunt of the storm. Nearby Tinian got some damage, while Rota was spared, said Gregorio Kilili Camcacho Sablan, the commonwealth’s delegate to U.S. Congress. As for Pagan, “No idea,” he said. “I have no way to contact Pagan.” Ten generators were being shipped from Guam to power water pumps in Saipan, but the harbor was closed Thursday because of a listing boat that was half underwater, Sablan said. Restoring power could take a month or two, he said. “I haven’t seen a storm like this in 20 years,” Sablan said. “Unfortunately, the resources we have are hardly enough to get things up.” Wind speeds during the storm were between 100 mph and 120 mph. In an area that’s used to typhoons, Sablan said he and others were expecting it to pass with maybe 80 mph winds. That there were no reports of deaths or serious injury “seems almost impossible,” Hunter said. There initially was a $20-per-vehicle limit on buying gasoline, which meant motorists could get only about four gallons, Hunter said. Some easily burned through that amount while waiting in long lines at the pumps. On Thursday, the limit increased to $50, Sablan said. Gov. Eloy Inos was on vacation visiting his children on the U.S. mainland. “He’s doing everything he can to come back home. … He’s very anxious,” Sablan said. Despite the desperate conditions, residents were hopeful.

“There is nowhere to go but up from here,” Selepeo said. “We’re optimistic. We will recover.”
Saturday, 08 August, 2015 at 04:39 (04:39 AM) UTC RSOE

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

seawarn 8

Marine Warnings: SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA

23:35 JST 08/08/2015

OKINAWA WX
082100JST ISSUED AT 082335JST

STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA SOUTH OF
OKINAWA

TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970HPA AT 24.9N 119.5E MOVING NNW 09KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150NM NE SIDE AND 100NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350NM EAST SIDE AND 270NM ELSEWHERE
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900JST AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 55KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100JST AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 45KT NEAR CENTER

IN SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE-LY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

IN SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100JST AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION

WARNING VALID 092100JST

Marine Warnings: SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA

23:35 JST 08/08/2015

OKINAWA WX
082100JST ISSUED AT 082335JST

STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA SOUTH OF
OKINAWA

TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970HPA AT 24.9N 119.5E MOVING NNW 09KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150NM NE SIDE AND 100NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350NM EAST SIDE AND 270NM ELSEWHERE
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900JST AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 55KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100JST AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 45KT NEAR CENTER

IN SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE-LY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

IN SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100JST AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION

WARNING VALID 092100JST

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN /081200

WTJP21 RJTD 081200
WARNING 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970 HPA
AT 24.9N 119.5E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Minamidaitōjima/ Okinawa/ AmamiŌshima/ Japan/ South Korea: Typhoon Halola (01C) 24/1500Z position near 25.3N 130.6E, moving W at 07 knots (JTWC) – Updated 240715 1508z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Halola (01C)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Minamidaitōjima, Amami Ōshima, Okinawa,  Japan Mainland and South Korea BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 23 FEET (JTWC)

Note: There are differences between forecast agencies

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1512-00 24
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15072415 24

TY 1512 (HALOLA)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 24 July 2015

<Analyses at 24/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°00′(25.0°)
E131°05′(131.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Estimate for 24/13 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°00′(25.0°)
E131°00′(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 24/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°30′(25.5°)
E130°25′(130.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 50km(25NM)
Storm warning area ALL120km(65NM)
<Forecast for 25/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°10′(26.2°)
E129°35′(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 25/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°05′(27.1°)
E128°55′(128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 110km(60NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 25/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°10′(28.2°)
E128°25′(128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
CURRENT WARNINGS - Click image for more detail

CURRENT WARNINGS – Click image for more detail

Korea Meteorological Administration

Typhoon

No.12 HALOLA

Issued at(KST) : 2015.07.24. 22:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2015.07.24. 12:00 Analysis 24.9 131.0 970 35 126 240
(SW 200)
Strong Small W 14
2015.07.25. 00:00 Forecast 26.4 129.6 975 32 115 240
(WSW 200)
Normal Small NW 18 60
2015.07.25. 12:00 Forecast 28.6 128.2 980 29 104 220
(W 180)
Normal Small NNW 24 140
2015.07.26. 00:00 Forecast 31.4 127.6 985 27 97 200
(WNW 170)
Normal Small NNW 26 185
2015.07.26. 12:00 Forecast 34.1 128.6 990 24 86 180
(WNW 100)
Weak Small NNE 26 230
2015.07.27. 00:00 Forecast 36.5 130.9 996 20 72 130
(NW 70)
Weak Small NE 28 275
2015.07.27. 12:00 Forecast 37.9 134.7 1002 ENE 31

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 01C (Halola) Warning #58
Issued at 24/1500Z

cp0115 24a

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 24/0900Z

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 24/0900Z

01C_241132sair 24

WTPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA) WARNING NR 058
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
241200Z — NEAR 25.0N 131.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 131.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 26.2N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 28.3N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 31.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 17 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 34.3N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 38.3N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 130.6E.
TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Jul, 2015 12:00 GMT

Hurricane HALOLA (01C) currently located near 25.0 N 131.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Storm Tracker Map
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METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 241200

WTJP21 RJTD 241200
WARNING 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512) 965 HPA
AT 25.0N 131.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 26.2N 129.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 28.2N 128.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 33.9N 128.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 37.6N 134.0E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Marine Warnings: SEA AROUND AMAMI
23:35 JST 07/24/2015

KAGOSHIMA WX
242100JST ISSUED AT 242335JST

TYPHOON WARNING FOR SEA AROUND AMAMI
GALE WARNING FOR SEA OFF KAGOSHIMA

TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512) 965HPA AT 25.0N 131.1E MOVING WNW 07KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40NM
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120NM
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900JST AT 26.2N 129.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100JST AT 28.2N 128.4E WITH 70NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER

IN SEA AROUND AMAMI
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 30KT AND SE-LY TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH MAX 75KT FOR NEXT 18 HOURS

IN SEA OFF KAGOSHIMA
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MAX 35KT FOR NEXT 24 HOURS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100JST AT 33.9N 128.0E WITH 140NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 50KT

WARNING VALID 252100JST

Marine Warnings: SEA EAST OF OKINAWA
23:35 JST 07/24/2015

OKINAWA WX
242100JST ISSUED AT 242335JST

TYPHOON WARNING FOR SEA EAST OF OKINAWA
STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
GALE WARNING FOR SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA

TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512) 965HPA AT 25.0N 131.1E MOVING WNW 07KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40NM
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120NM
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900JST AT 26.2N 129.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100JST AT 28.2N 128.4E WITH 70NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER

IN SEA EAST OF OKINAWA
EASTERLY TO SE-LY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 70KT

IN SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
NW-LY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MAX 55KT FOR NEXT 18 HOURS

IN SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA
NW-LY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MAX 45KT FOR NEXT 18 HOURS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100JST AT 33.9N 128.0E WITH 140NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 50KT

WARNING VALID 252100JST

Other warnings at METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Tropical Depression Nangka (11W) 17/2100z position nr 38.1N 135.8E., moving NNE at 09 knots (JTWC) – Published 170715 2200z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Nangka (11W)

 Maximum significant wave height
at 171800z is 12 feet (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1511-00 17

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15071803

TD
Issued at 18:40 UTC, 17 July 2015

<Analyses at 17/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N37°00′(37.0°)
E136°00′(136.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wtpn33 pgtw 172100
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical depression 11w (Nangka) warning nr 058
downgraded from tropical storm 11w
02 active tropical cyclones in northwestpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
wind radii valid over open water only

warning position:
171800z — near 37.6n 135.2e
movement past six hours – 030 degrees at 09 kts
position accurate to within 060 nm
position based on center located by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds – 030 kt, gusts 040 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
repeat posit: 37.6n 135.2e

forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
180600z — 39.5n 137.7e
Max sustained winds – 030 kt, gusts 040 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
vector to 24 hr posit: 055 deg/ 13 kts

24 hrs, valid at:
181800z — 40.9n 140.6e
Max sustained winds – 025 kt, gusts 035 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over land
vector to 36 hr posit: 055 deg/ 13 kts

36 hrs, valid at:
190600z — 42.4n 143.5e
Max sustained winds – 020 kt, gusts 030 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
dissipated as a significant tropical cyclone over land

remarks:
172100z position near 38.1n 135.8e.
Tropical depression 11w (Nangka), located approximately 232 nm
west-northwest of yokota ab, has tracked north-northeastward at
09 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height
at 171800z is 12 feet. Next warnings at 180300z, 180900z, 181500z
and 182100z. Refer to tropical storm 01c (halola) warnings
(wtpn32 pgtw) for six-hourly updates.//
Nnnn

(Via @wunderground)

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Jul, 2015 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NANGKA (11W) currently located near 36.1 N 134.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

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METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 171800 CCA
WARNING AND SUMMARY 171800.
WARNING VALID 181800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 50N 162E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 50N 162E TO 49N 167E 46N 169E.
WARM FRONT FROM 46N 169E TO 42N 171E 38N 172E.
COLD FRONT FROM 46N 169E TO 41N 164E 40N 158E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 40N 158E TO 40N 150E 40N 140E 40N 137E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 43N 141E
44N 145E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 35N 170E 39N 159E 36N
141E.
SUMMARY.
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 1511 NANGKA (1511) TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1002 HPA AT 37N 136E NE 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1002 HPA NEAR 22N 127E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1008 HPA AT 34N 129E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 54N 132E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 33N 158E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1512 HALOLA (1512) 996 HPA AT 18.3N 157.5E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 171800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 171800.
WARNING VALID 181800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 50N 162E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 50N 162E TO 49N 167E 46N 169E.
WARM FRONT FROM 46N 169E TO 42N 171E 38N 172E.
COLD FRONT FROM 46N 169E TO 41N 164E 40N 158E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 40N 158E TO 40N 150E 40N 140E 40N 137E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 43N 141E
44N 145E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 35N 170E 39N 159E 36N
141E.
SUMMARY.
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 1511 NANGKA (1511) TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1002 HPA AT 37N 136E NE 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1002 HPA NEAR 22N 127E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1008 HPA AT 34N 129E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 54N 132E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 33N 158E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1512 HALOLA (1512) 996 HPA AT 18.3N 157.5E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Korea/ China: Severe Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (09W) 12/1500Z POSITION nr 37.5N 125.1E, moving N/NNE 20 knots (JTWC) – Updated 120715 1500z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (09W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1509-00 c12

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15071215 c12

STS 1509 (CHAN-HOM)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 12 July 2015

<Analyses at 12/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N36°35′(36.6°)
E125°00′(125.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E600km(325NM)
W390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 13/00 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N39°40′(39.7°)
E127°00′(127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 13/12 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N42°10′(42.2°)
E130°30′(130.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 09W (Chan-hom) Warning #49
Issued at 12/1500Z

wp0915 c12

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 11/2100Z

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 11/2100Z

09W_112332sams c12

WTPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 049
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121200Z — NEAR 36.8N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 015 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.8N 124.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 39.6N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 40.9N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 37.5N 125.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Jul, 2015 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM (09W) currently located near 36.8 N 124.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    P’yongyang (39.0 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sariwon (38.5 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kanggye (41.0 N, 126.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Hamhung (39.9 N, 127.6 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Sinuiju (40.1 N, 124.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201509W_0 c12

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

seawarn c12

CLICK IMAGE FOR MORE DETAIL

WTJP21 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509) 980 HPA
AT 36.6N 125.0E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 39.7N 127.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 42.2N 130.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 120600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED EASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED
BY 15N 176E 15N 180E 13N 180E 13N 176E 15N 176E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED WESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED
BY 13N 176E 13N 180E 11N 180E 11N 176E 13N 176E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 32N 136E 33N 136E
35N 137E 36N 143E 43N 146E 56N 163E 60N 164E 60N 180E 40N 180E 36N
160E 32N 142E 32N 136E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 49N 132E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 47N 153E SE 15 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 57N 146E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1511 NANGKA (1511) 950 HPA AT 18.6N 137.6E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509) 975 HPA AT 34.9N 124.2E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Typhoon Dolphin 07W threatens Iwo Jima (Iwo To) – 180515 1517z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Dolphin (1507, 07W)

(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 33
FEET. – JTWC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

1507-00 d18

1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TY 1507 (DOLPHIN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 18 May 2015

<Analyses at 18/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°10′(22.2°)
E138°55′(138.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE390km(210NM)
SW280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 19/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°40′(23.7°)
E139°25′(139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 19/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°05′(25.1°)
E141°00′(141.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 20/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°35′(31.6°)
E148°00′(148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 40km/h(22kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)
<Forecast for 21/12 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44°25′(44.4°)
E165°30′(165.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 85km/h(47kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 600km(325NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Super Typhoon 07W (Dolphin) Warning #40
Issued at 16/1500Z

wp0715 d18

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/07W_181132sair.jpg

WTPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
181200Z — NEAR 22.5N 138.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 015 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 138.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 23.9N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 25.8N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 28.7N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 32 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 33.3N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 138.8E.
TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM SOUTHWEST OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 33
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 May, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon DOLPHIN (07W) currently located near 14.0 N 144.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Guam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the Northern Mariana Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hagatna (13.5 N, 144.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201507W d18

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 181200

WTJP22 RJTD 181200
WARNING 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1507 DOLPHIN (1507) 955 HPA
AT 22.2N 138.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 23.7N 139.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 25.1N 141.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 31.6N 148.0E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 44.4N 165.5E WITH 325 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 181200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 984 HPA
AT 48N 176E SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 48N 176E TO 48N 180E 46N 175W.
WARM FRONT FROM 46N 175W TO 43N 172W 40N 170W.
COLD FRONT FROM 46N 175W TO 41N 177W 38N 180E 35N 175E 32N 166E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N 166E TO 31N 158E 32N 148E 33N 137E 35N 132E
27N 120E 25N 112E 24N 109E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
400 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 35N 132E WESTERN JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 28N 130E 31N 130E
35N 141E 42N 142E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 33N 180E 29N 165E 28N
149E 28N 130E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 39N 129E ENE 15 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 48N 146E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 34N 156E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 26N 163E EAST 10 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1507 DOLPHIN (1507) 955 HPA AT 22.2N 138.9E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines: Typhoon NOUL (06W)/ DODONG further weakened and accelerated as it moves Northeastward (PAGASA) – 110515 1245z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon NOUL SIX (06W)/ DODONG in PH

Typhoon “#DodongPH” has further weakened and accelerated as it moves Northeastward (PAGASA)

(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 38 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1506-00 N11

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Analysis Chart (PDF)

TY 1506 (NOUL)
Issued at 10:45 UTC, 11 May 2015

Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°20′(22.3°)
E122°50′(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL80km(45NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°25′(22.4°)
E122°55′(122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL80km(45NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°35′(23.6°)
E124°00′(124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area ALL140km(75NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°05′(26.1°)
E126°50′(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55km/h(29kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL180km(95NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°20′(28.3°)
E129°50′(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 65km/h(34kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N30°30′(30.5°)
E133°35′(133.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 70km/h(38kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 240km(130NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

PHILIPPINES

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

dodong_15051106

5:00 p.m. Weather Bulletin in pdf 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 06W (Noul) Warning #34
Issued at 11/0900Z

wp0615 n11

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/06W_110532sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 034
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
110600Z — NEAR 21.8N 122.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 025 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 122.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 25.2N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 36 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 29.6N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 41 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 34.6N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 43 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 40.2N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 123.5E.
TYPHOON 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z,
120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 May, 2015 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NOUL (06W) currently located near 21.8 N 122.6 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Typhoon Noul Nears Southern Japan Monday Near Landfall Outlook (WestPacWx)

Typhoon Noul continues to track North away from the Philippines and towards Japan this Monday evening setting the stage for a early season typhoon in the southern Japanese islands including the island of Okinawa.  Winds will max out there during the morning hours as the storm races by being pulled quickly north east by a passing cold front. At this time JMA is warning of winds gusting up to 180kph in Okinawa, …

Read More

Other Reports

Typhoon Dodong (Noul) slammed into the northern tip of the Philippines May 10, prompting almost 3,000 people in Northern Luzon to flee their homes and knocking out power in Cagayan. It has since weakened, and the state weather bureau said the typhoon will be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Tuesday, May 12. It’s expected to move north towards Japan, the government weather station said.

Read the full story on Rappler.

Read the full story on evacuation on Rappler.

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 110900

WTJP31 RJTD 110900
WARNING 110900.
WARNING VALID 120900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1506 NOUL (1506) 955 HPA
AT 22.0N 122.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 26.1N 126.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 30.5N 133.6E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 110600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 110600.
WARNING VALID 120600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 40N 167E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 40N 167E TO 39N 170E 38N 172E.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 172E TO 36N 174E 33N 176E.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 172E TO 31N 165E 25N 153E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
500 MILES ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER LOW 994 HPA AT 38N 160E
MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 36N 123E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 36N 123E TO 34N 125E 31N 128E.
COLD FRONT FROM 36N 123E TO 30N 120E 26N 115E 25N 111E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 43N 146E 47N 152E
55N 162E 53N 180E 30N 180E 30N 170E 37N 160E 40N 150E 43N 146E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 47N 146E ESE 20 KT.
LOW 998 HPA AT 57N 151E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 35N 142E ESE 20 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1506 NOUL (1506) 950 HPA AT 21.6N 122.3E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1507 DOLPHIN (1507) 998 HPA AT 09.8N 160.0E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

GALE WARNING # 08 (FINAL)

FOR: Strong to gale force winds associated with Typhoon “DODONG”.
Issued at: 5:00 pm today, 11 May 2015
Strong to gale force winds has weakened.

SEABOARDS

WEATHER

WIND FORCE
(KPH / KNOTS)

SEA CONDITION

WAVE HEIGHT (meters)

THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF NORTHERN LUZON
(Isabela and Eastern Coast of Cagayan)

Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms

(35– 59) /(19 – 32)

Moderate to rough

2.1 to 4.0

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are alerted against moderate to rough seas.

This is the final gale warning.

PAGASA

Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Yap/ Fais/ Ulithi/ Philippines/ Pacific Ocean: Super Typhoon Maysak (04W) / Chedeng 311500Z POSITION near 10.4N 139.3E, moving W at 14 knots (JTWC) – 310315 1615z (GMT/UTC)

Super Typhoon Maysak (04W)/ Chedeng (in Philippines)

YAP in the Caroline Islands & Philippines beware!

(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 40 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1504-00 M31

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TY 1504 (MAYSAK)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 31 March 2015

<Analyses at 31/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Violent
Center position N10°10′(10.2°)
E139°55′(139.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 905hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N390km(210NM)
S330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N10°40′(10.7°)
E137°35′(137.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 900hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 01/12 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N11°20′(11.3°)
E135°55′(135.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 895hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(120kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(170kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 02/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°40′(12.7°)
E133°35′(133.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°55′(13.9°)
E130°40′(130.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

Philippines

Pagasa LogoPAGASA-DOST Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

TC Update: as of 10PM today 31 March 2015 (PhT), Typhoon w/ International Name “MAYSAK” was located at 1,530 km East of Surigao City (10.2°N, 139.4°E). Maximum sustained winds of 205kph near the center and gustiness of up to 240kph. It is forecast to move West Northwest at 20kph

11066785_778410438935534_8001588373223099484_n

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wp0415 M31

04W_311132sair

WTPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
311200Z — NEAR 10.2N 139.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 139.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 10.9N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 11.5N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z — 12.2N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 13.0N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 14.2N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 15.0N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 15.7N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 139.3E.
SUPER TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 31 Mar, 2015 12:00 GMT

Super Typhoon MAYSAK (04W) currently located near 10.2 N 139.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yap (9.5 N, 138.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
    Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
    Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image TSR)

(Image TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Philippines – As of today, there is no Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping issued – Dost pagasa

TYPHOON WARNING

WTJP31 RJTD 311500
WARNING 311500.
WARNING VALID 011500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1504 MAYSAK (1504) 905 HPA
AT 10.3N 139.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 10.8N 137.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 11.3N 135.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
895 HPA, MAX WINDS 120 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Further warnings here:

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines/ Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm BAVI / BETTY(1503) 170600Z nr 15.3N 135.4E, moving WNW at 13 knots (JMA) – Updated 170315 0820z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Bavi (1503)(03W)/ “BETTY” in Philippines

…BAVI IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND COULD BE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE TONIGHT….NWS GUAM

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

wp201503_sat_anim BAVI 17

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1503-00 BAVI 17

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15031709

TS 1503 (BAVI)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 17 March 2015

<Analyses at 17/06 UTC>
Scale –
Intensity –
Center position N15°20′(15.3°)
E135°25′(135.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW280km(150NM)
SE170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 17/18 UTC>
Intensity –
Center position of probability circle N15°35′(15.6°)
E133°40′(133.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 18/06 UTC>
Intensity –
Center position of probability circle N16°05′(16.1°)
E131°55′(131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 19/06 UTC>
Intensity –
TD
Center position of probability circle N16°30′(16.5°)
E129°05′(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)

PAGASA Track as of 8 a.m., 17 March 2015 Satellite Image 
betty 15031700 bettysat 15031700

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER ONE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT: TROPICAL STORM “BETTY” (BAVI)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Tuesday, 17 March 2015

The Tropical Storm {BAVI} east of Bicol Region will enter The Philippine Area Of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon and will be named “BETTY”.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.)
1,530 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Coordinates: 15.4°N, 136.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph.
Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 20 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook: 24 hour (Tomorrow morning):
1,030 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
48 hour (Thursday morning):
640 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
72 hour (Friday morning):
270 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
No Public Storm Warning Signal

Estimated rainfall amount is from 2.5 – 7.5 mm per hour (light – moderate) within the 500 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.

The Tropical Storm is expected to weaken into a Tropical Depression within the next 24-36 hours.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11PM today.

 11  a.m. Weather Bulletin in pdf 

National Weather Service Forecast OfficeWFO Guam

errorTrack1 BAVI 17
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 170235
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
200 PM CHST TUE MAR 17 2015

…TROPICAL STORM BAVI WEAKENING…

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.3N 135.8E

ABOUT 430 MILES NORTH OF YAP
ABOUT 660 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 630 MILES WEST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 610 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST-NORTHWEST…290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
AT 100 PM CHST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.8 EAST…MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. BAVI IS EXPECTED TO CURVE WESTWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 40 MPH. SATELLITE DATA
INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES…MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BAVI IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND COULD BE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

ZIOBRO

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wp0315 BAVI 17

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03W_162332sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 170300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
170000Z — NEAR 15.2N 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 136.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 15.6N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 15.8N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 16.0N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 16.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 15.9N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 135.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 170600

WTJP21 RJTD 170600
WARNING 170600.
WARNING VALID 180600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1503 BAVI (1503) 998 HPA
AT 15.3N 135.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 15.6N 133.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 16.1N 131.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 16.5N 129.1E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WTPH RPMM 170000
TTT GALE WARNING 01

AT 0000 17 MARCH TROPICAL STORM [BAVI] {1503} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE SIX POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 180000 ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 190000 ONE SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ONE EAST AND AT 200000 ONE SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

Further warnings here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm 1502/ 02W HIGOS 072100Z POSITION nr 11.8N 157.6E, moving N at 6 knots (JTWC) – Published 070215 2150z

Tropical Storm HIGOS (1502, 02W)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1502

TS 1502 (HIGOS)
Issued at 18:55 UTC, 7 February 2015

<Analyses at 07/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N11°25′(11.4°)
E157°25′(157.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N12°05′(12.1°)
E156°30′(156.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N12°40′(12.7°)
E154°50′(154.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N13°35′(13.6°)
E152°55′(152.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

 Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0215.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/02W_071732sair.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071800Z — NEAR 11.6N 157.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 157.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 12.4N 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 12.9N 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 13.4N 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 14.3N 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 15.8N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 16.7N 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 157.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//
NNNN

Other Reports

NASA’s Hurricane Web Page

070215 2003Z

NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN – Tropical depression Higos or 02W has formed about 400 nautical miles east-northeast of Chuuk, near 10.9 north and 157.6 east. It has maximum sustained winds near 30 knots (34.5 mph/55.5 kph) and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm with max. winds to 60 knots.
Higos is moving north-northwest and is expected to curve northeast and become extra-tropical. It is not expected to directly affect any islands in the vicinity, however, it will stir up rough seas.
Today, Feb. 7 at 13:46 UTC (8:36 a.m. EST) NASA-JAXA’s GPM satellite data shows fragmented thunderstorm bands on the eastern side of the storm wrapping into the center.

NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN - Tropical depression Higos or 02W has formed about 400 nautical miles east-northeast of Chuuk, near 10.9 north and 157.6 east. It has maximum sustained winds near 30 knots (34.5 mph/55.5 kph) and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm with max. winds to 60 knots. 
   Higos is moving north-northwest and is expected to curve northeast and become extra-tropical. It is not expected to directly affect any islands in the vicinity, however, it will stir up rough seas. 
  Today, Feb. 7 at 13:46 UTC (8:36 a.m. EST) NASA-JAXA's GPM satellite data shows fragmented thunderstorm bands on the eastern side of the storm wrapping into the center.

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

ZCZC 538
WTPQ50 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1502 HIGOS (1502) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 11.4N 157.4E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 081800UTC 12.1N 156.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 091800UTC 12.7N 154.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 101800UTC 13.6N 152.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 111800UTC 15.0N 151.6E 240NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
120HF 121800UTC 16.0N 149.9E 300NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY =
NNNN

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1502 HIGOS (1502) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1000 HPA
AT 11.4N 157.4E MARSHALLS MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 12.1N 156.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 12.7N 154.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 13.6N 152.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

More warnings here:

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines: 19/1000 (PhT) LOW (LPA) formerly “#Mekkhala/ #Amang” 16.8˚N, 122.7˚E – PAGASA – Updated 190115 0930z (GMT/UTC)

LOW PRESSURE AREA formerly 01W Mekkhala/ Amang

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Mekkhala_sat_anim

Japan Meteorological agency

1501-00 19th

15011915 19th

TD
Issued at 18:40 UTC, 18 January 2015

<Analyses at 18/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N16°00′(16.0°)
E122°00′(122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa

PAGASA-DOST Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

FOR: LOW PRESSURE AREA (FORMERLY “AMANG”)
ISSUED AT: 10:30 AM, 19 JANUARY 2015

At 10:00 am today, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) formerly “AMANG” was estimated based on all available data at 85 km Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora (16.8˚N, 122.7˚E). This weather system is expected to bring cloudy skies with light to moderate rains over the regions of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos.

Meanwhile, fisher folk and other small seacrafts are advised not venture out into the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon and the Eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon.

The next update will be incorporated in the 24-hour public weather forecast to be issued at 5:00 pm today while the next weather advisory will be issued at 11:00 am tomorrow.

For more information and queries, please call at telephone numbers 927-1335 and 927-2877 or log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph.

10410341_742438229199422_5565964766380787603_n

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wp0115 19th

 https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/01W_181732sair.jpg
WTPN31 PGTW 182100 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (MEKKHALA) WARNING NR 022A AMENDED AND
RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
181800Z — NEAR 15.7N 123.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 123.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 16.9N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 17.9N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 123.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (MEKKHALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BAGUIO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS
BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS IT WAS STRIPPED OF DEEP CONVECTION BY STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
ANIMATION AIDED BY A COMPOSITE DOPPLER RADAR LOOP FROM PAGASA WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FROM THE 181500Z PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE. TD
MEKKHALA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12 DUE TO THE HIGH VWS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: RELOCATED INITIAL
AND FORECAST POSITIONS AFTER ANALYSIS OF UPDATED AND MORE ACCURATE
SATELLITE DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z
IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

TSR logoTropical Storm Risk (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 18 Jan, 2015 12:00 GMT

Tropical Depression MEKKHALA (01W) currently located near 15.1 N 121.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Find warnings here:

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South Indian Ocean: Severe Tropical Cyclone 04S Kate 280900Z POSITION near 13.8S 92.3E, moving SW at 04 Knots (JTWC) – Updated 281214 0955z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 04S Kate

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta

IDJ21030
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

BULETIN INFORMASI SIKLON TROPIS

Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 08:08 WIB 28/12/2014

Siklon Tropis KATE

Kondisi tanggal 28/12/2014 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 13.1LS, 92.8BT (sekitar 1470 km sebelah barat daya Bengkulu)
Arah Gerak : barat, kecepatan 2 knots (4 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 80 knots (150 km/jam)

Prediksi 24 jam, tanggal 29/12/2014 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 14.7LS, 92.2BT (sekitar 1640 km sebelah barat daya Bengkulu)
Arah Gerak : Selatan barat daya, kecepatan 4 knots (8 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 80 knots (150 km/jam)

Prediksi 48 jam, tanggal 30/12/2014 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 17.0LS, 90.9BT
Arah Gerak : Selatan barat daya, kecepatan 5 knots (10 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 60 knots (110 km/jam)

Prediksi 72 jam, tanggal 31/12/2014 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 19.4LS, 87.9BT
Arah Gerak : Barat daya, kecepatan 7 knots (12 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 50 knots (95 km/jam)

DAMPAK TERHADAP CUACA DI INDONESIA :
Siklon tropis KATE memberikan dampak terhadap kondisi cuaca di wilayah Indonesia berupa :
– Gelombang dengan ketinggian 2 – 3 meter berpeluang terjadi di Perairan Bengkulu hingga barat Lampung, Selat Sunda bagian selatan, Perairan selatan Banten, dan Samudera Hindia selatan Banten hingga Jawa Tengah.
– Gelombang dengan ketinggian lebih dari 3 meter berpeluang terjadi di Samudera Hindia barat Sumatera.

IDJ21030
Meteorology and Geophysics
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (the Centre) in Jakarta

INFORMATION BULLETIN TROPICAL CYCLONE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING issued by CENTRE JAKARTA
In: 8:08 PM 12/28/2014

Tropical Cyclone KATE

Conditions dated 28.12.2014 07:00 pm:
Position: 13.1LS, 92.8BT (about 1470 km southwest of Bengkulu)
Motion direction: west, the speed of 2 knots (4 km / h) moving away from the region of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed: 80 knots (150 km / h)

Prediction 24 hours, date 12/29/2014 07:00 pm:
Position: 14.7LS, 92.2BT (about 1640 km southwest of Bengkulu)
Motion direction: South-west, the speed of 4 knots (8 km / h) moving away from the region of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed: 80 knots (150 km / h)

Prediction 48 hours, date 12/30/2014 07:00 pm:
Position: 17.0LS, 90.9BT
Motion direction: South-west, the speed of 5 knots (10 km / h) moving away from the region of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed: 60 knots (110 km / h)

Prediction 72 hours, date 12/31/2014 07:00 pm:
Position: 19.4LS, 87.9BT
Direction Motion: Southwestern, speed 7 knots (12 km / h) moving away from the territory of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed: 50 knots (95 km / h)

IMPACT ON THE WEATHER IN INDONESIA:
KATE tropical cyclone impact on the weather conditions in parts of Indonesia such as:
– A wave with a height of 2-3 meters likely to occur in the waters west of Bengkulu to Lampung, southern Sunda Strait, southern waters of Banten, and the Indian Ocean to the south Banten Central Java.
– A wave with a height of more than 3 meters likely to occur in the Indian Ocean west of Sumatra.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
280600Z — NEAR 13.6S 92.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 92.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z — 14.3S 92.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 15.2S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 16.3S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 17.5S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 20.0S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 92.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A PULSATING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT HAS ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASED IN SIZE AND SYMMETRY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND CONTINUES
TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280542Z TRMM
MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED SEVERAL SMALL TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS WRAPPING
INTO AN EYE FEATURE ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED IN SIZE. A 280230Z ASCAT PASS WAS
UTILIZED TO ADJUST THE WIND FIELD OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS
SATELLITE DATA, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
RECENT MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 90 KNOTS
WHICH IS BASED ON AN EVALUATION OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AS THE LAST INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS RE-EVALUATED AND
INCREASED UP TO 90 KNOTS DUE TO THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. TC KATE
IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG A WEAK WESTERN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA TOWARD A BREAK IN THE
STR CAUSED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC KATE IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH RE-ORIENTS DUE TO PERSISTENT
TROUGHING POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36, TC 04S SHOULD TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO A LOW-LEVEL STR TO THE
SOUTH, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AFTER
TAU 72. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO MARGINAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND DECEASING OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 36 AND
THEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO COOLER SSTS (LESS THAN 25C) AND INCREASING
VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
SLIGHT SPREAD AS EGRR AND COAMPS-TC REMAIN THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW OVERALL
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE TROUGH
INTERACTION WITH THE STR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA10 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING_PERTH / 0642

WTAU05 APRF 280642
IDW23100
40:3:2:24:14S093E999:11:00
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0642UTC 28 DECEMBER 2014

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Kate was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal eight south (13.8S)
longitude ninety two decimal five east (92.5E)
Recent movement : southwest at 3 knots
Maximum winds : 80 knots
Central pressure: 971 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 80 knots near the centre easing to 75 knots by 0600 UTC 29
December.

Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with high to very high
seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 80 nautical miles of centre with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 28 December: Within 45 nautical miles of 14.6 south 92.2 east
Central pressure 965 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 29 December: Within 70 nautical miles of 15.7 south 91.8 east
Central pressure 970 hPa.
Winds to 75 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 28 December 2014.

WEATHER PERTH

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines: Tropical Storm HAGUPIT 1422 22W 082100Z POSITION nr 14.0N 120.4E, moving WNW 05 knots(JTWC) – Updated – 081214 2130z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL STORM 1422 (HAGUPIT) – JMA

(Now lower than CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) – JTWC

Philippines beware!!

(Warning: Images not updating despite being correct on edit, click on most images to go to source. Check comments for interim updates,)

Japan Meteorological agency

1422

TS 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 8 December 2014

<Analyses at 08/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N13°50′(13.8°)
E120°50′(120.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 09/06 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N14°05′(14.1°)
E119°00′(119.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N14°05′(14.1°)
E116°55′(116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N13°30′(13.5°)
E112°30′(112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N11°40′(11.7°)
E108°10′(108.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2214.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/22W_081732sair.jpg

 

WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 14.0N 120.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 120.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 14.2N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 14.1N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 13.9N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 13.5N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 12.2N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 10.1N 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 120.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z,
090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logo

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Dec, 201418:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HAGUPIT (22W) currently located near 14.0 N 120.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com

Storm Tracker Map

Western Pacific Weather

Find A Shelter in Your Area, Typhoon Hagupit Interactive Map (link)

Tropical Storm Hagupit (Ruby) in Southern Luzon | Afternoon Video Update

Tropical Storm Hagupit (Bagyong Ruby) is now moving near the province of Batangas and could make landfall near the town of Laiya according to PAGASA. While Signal #3 warnings have been lowered by the agency, Signal #2 is still in effect in many areas, including Metro Manila. Bands of heavy rains and strong winds will

Read More…

Tropical Storm 22W HAGUPIT (Ruby) continues its trek across the Philippines. Manila braces for impact.

Monday morning in the WPAC region and tropical storm HAGUPIT, named “Ruby” by the Philippine’s MET service, PAGASA, continues to weaken and work its way to the NW across the Philippine archipelago this morning. The latest information at 08/03z from the JTWC is as follows: Position:              13.4N, 122.4E Location:             126 nm (233km) SE of Manila, Philippines

Read More…

Severe Tropical Storm Hagupit wobbling over the Philippines

Hagupit continues to track west across the Philippines Monday morning bringing wide spread heavy rainfall to southern Luzon and Northern Visayas.  At least two deaths have been officially reported at the time of this update. We have also seen unconfirmed reports in social media but we will wait for casualty reports from the NDRRMC here.

Read More…

Typhoon Hagupit / Rudy Live Webcast

Feel free to ask questions or comments in this live update prior to landfall of Typhoon Hagupit..

Below are some useful “Stay Alive” tips if you wanna ride out a Typhoon:

1. Pruning of large and tall trees will make you safe from damage, reinforce vulnerable ones to the ground if necessary. Keep them away from power lines;

2. Make sure roofing are sturdy to withstand powerful wind and rain. Ensure doors and windows are water tight;

3. Clear your property from potentially dangerous debris becoming airborne during high wind;

4. Free water ways from debris to avoid backing up flood waters towards river estuaries in case of torrential rains associated with the system;

5. Stay clear from the immediate coasts and low-lying areas to avoid being caught up by raging waters. Watchout for landslips if you live near steep elevations;

6. Secure food stocks, adequate potable water supply and medications. Do not forget to safely shelter dogs and other beloved animal companion indoor. Be humane enough. You don’t wanna keep them cold outside in a storm;

7. Keep emergency numbers at hand and orient family members what to do before, during and after the storm. Charge handheld radios, cellular phones and extra battery before electricity is cut from the grid;

8. Listen to emergency broadcast via battery-powered portable radio. Lights would definitely go out during the storm, so you wanna make sure you got emergency lights and torch lights in handy;

9. Keep calm and pray for the Typhoon to come to past safely in your vicinity. We’ll ride out the storm safely.

NEWS

Philippine capital braces for storm, as Hagupit leaves 27 dead

Typhoon death toll rises after storm tears through central islands flattening homes and toppling trees

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 081800

WTJP21 RJTD 081800
WARNING 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1422 HAGUPIT (1422) 992 HPA
AT 13.8N 120.8E PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 14.1N 119.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 14.1N 116.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 13.5N 112.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 11.7N 108.2E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines: Typhoon HAGUPIT 1422 22W 050900Z POSITION 12.0N 128.7E, moving W at 07kt (JMA) – Updated – 051214 1232z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon HAGUPIT 1422 22W

Updated here:

https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/12/06/philippines-typhoon-hagupit-1422-22w-060900z-position-12-0n-126-3e-moving-w-at-07kt-jma-updated-061214-1126z-gmtutc/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

YAP/ Palau/ Philippines: Tropical Storm HAGUPIT 1422 22W 020900Z 6.2N 144.2E, moving W at 20kt (JMA) – Published – 021214 1247z (GMT/UTC)

Philippines: Super Typhoon HAGUPIT 1422 22W 041500Z POSITION 11.1N 130.9E, moving WNW at 12kt (JTWC) – Updated – 041214 1415z (GMT/UTC)

More here; http://wp.me/p2k2mU-3u2

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South China Sea/ Vietnam: Severe Tropical Storm SINLAKU (1421/21W) 291500Z 13.5N 109.7E, moving WNW at 10 knots (RSMC Tokyo) – Published 1756z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm SINLAKU (21W)

(Warning: Images are not updating despite being updated correctly – click on most images to visit image source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1421

STS 1421 (SINLAKU)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 29 November 2014

<Analyses at 29/15 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N13°30′(13.5°)
E109°40′(109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 30/03 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N14°00′(14.0°)
E107°20′(107.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 30/15 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N13°55′(13.9°)
E105°00′(105.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2114.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/21W_291132sair.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
291200Z — NEAR 13.3N 110.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 110.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 13.7N 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 13.7N 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 109.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (SINLAKU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z,
300300Z AND 300900Z.//
NNNN

TSR logo

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Nov, 2014 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm SINLAKU (21W) currently located near 13.3 N 110.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP31 RJTD 291500
WARNING 291500.
WARNING VALID 301500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1421 SINLAKU (1421) 990 HPA
AT 13.5N 109.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 14.0N 107.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 13.9N 105.0E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are other messages here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Typhoon Vongfong 19W 121000Z 29.4N 127.4E, moving N at 12 knots (JMA)

Typhoon Vongfong

(Tropical Storm Vongfong 19W)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1419

TY 1419 (VONGFONG)
Issued at 10:50 UTC, 12 October 2014

<Analyses at 12/10 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N29°25′(29.4°)
E127°25′(127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL700km(375NM)
<Estimate for 12/11 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N29°35′(29.6°)
E127°25′(127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL700km(375NM)
<Forecast for 12/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°05′(30.1°)
E127°55′(127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area NE330km(180NM)
SW280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 12/21 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°00′(31.0°)
E129°00′(129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area NE370km(200NM)
SW310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 13/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N32°00′(32.0°)
E130°55′(130.9°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 45km/h(24kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area SE370km(200NM)
NW330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 13/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N33°30′(33.5°)
E133°25′(133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45km/h(24kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area SE390km(210NM)
NW330km(180NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1914.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/19W_120532sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
120600Z — NEAR 28.9N 127.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 350 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9N 127.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 30.7N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 33.0N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 28 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 36.2N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 32 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 40.0N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 127.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z,
130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Oct, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm VONGFONG (19W) currently located near 28.9 N 127.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0900

WTJP31 RJTD 120900
WARNING 120900.
WARNING VALID 130900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1419 VONGFONG (1419) 965 HPA
AT 29.3N 127.3E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 31.0N 129.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 33.5N 133.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 120600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 990 HPA
AT 32N 169E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 32N 169E TO 32N 173E 30N 177E.
COLD FRONT FROM 32N 169E TO 26N 162E 22N 152E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N 152E TO 23N 145E 26N 140E 30N 135E 31N
129E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 38N 169E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 39N 169E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 1002 HPA
AT 39N 160E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST SLOWLY.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 400
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 998 HPA
AT 56N 139E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 56N 139E TO 54N 145E 50N 147E.
COLD FRONT FROM 56N 139E TO 53N 141E 47N 139E 44N 134E 42N 129E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 33N 133E 34N 137E 30N 140E 27N 140E 27N 137E 28N 134E 33N
133E.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 39N 145E SE 15 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 48N 179E ESE 15 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1419 VONGFONG (1419) 965 HPA AT 28.8N 127.1E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Luzon/ Philippines/ China/ Hong Kong/ Vietnam: Typhoon KALMAEGI (15W)/ LUIS: 141800Z near 18.4N 119.6E, moving WNW at 17 knots (JMA) – Updated 140914 2000z (UTC)

Typhoon KALMAEGI (15W)/Bagyong LUIS in the Philippines

Typhoon “LUIS” has slightly weakened as it continues to cross the Northern Luzon area – PAGASA

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1415

TY 1415 (KALMAEGI)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 14 September 2014

<Analyses at 14/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N18°25′(18.4°)
E119°35′(119.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE390km(210NM)
NW280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 15/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°40′(18.7°)
E116°20′(116.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 15/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°40′(19.7°)
E113°25′(113.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 16/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°20′(21.3°)
E107°10′(107.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 17/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N22°50′(22.8°)
E102°20′(102.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)

 

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

luis 14091412

 

EVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER  TWELVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: TYPHOON “LUIS” (KALMAEGI)
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Sunday, 14 September 2014

 

 

Typhoon “LUIS” has slightly weaken as it continues to cross the Northern Luzon area.

 

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.)
 in the vicinity of Kabugao, Apayao
Coordinates: 18.0°N, 121.1°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 150 kph.
Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 30 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Monday morning:
outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)

Monday evening:
492 km West of Laoag City

 

 Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS Luzon Visayas Mindanao
# 3(Winds of 101-185 kph is expected in at least 18 hrs) Cagayan including Babuyan and Calayan Group of Islands, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Kalinga, Mt. Province and Ilocos Sur   None None
# 2(Winds of 61-100 kph is expected in at least 24 hrs) Batanes Group of Islands, Isabela, Ifugao, La Union, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya and Pangasinan None None
#1
(winds of 30 – 60 kph is expected in atleast
36 hours)
Tarlac, Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan Nueva Ecija, Quirino and Aurora None None

 

Public storm warning signals elsewhere are now lowered.

 

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #3, #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #3 and #2 are alerted against storm surges of up to 2 meters.

 

Estimated rainfall amount is from 8 – 20 mm per hour (heavy – Intense) within the 500 km diameter of the Typhoon.

 

The rest of Luzon and Western Visayas will have monsoon rains with moderate to strong southwesterly surface windflow due to the Southwest Monsoon.

 

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the westerm seaboard of Central Luzon and seaboards of Southern Luzon and Visayas.

 

The public and the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (DRRMC) concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

See more: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/hourly-update

For more information and queries, please call at telephone numbers 927-1335 and 927-2877 or log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1514.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/15W_141132sair.jpg

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
141200Z — NEAR 17.9N 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 121.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z — 18.8N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 19.6N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 20.4N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 21.2N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 22.6N 102.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 24.1N 97.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 121.0E.
TYPHOON 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.
//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Sep, 2014 12:00 GMT

Typhoon KALMAEGI (15W) currently located near 17.9 N 121.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Typhoon Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) Afternoon Video Update | September 14, 2014

Typhoon Kalmaegi / Luis Nearing Landfall Sunday – WestPacWx

Rain

Out of this storm of course the rainfall is going to be a big threat. Starting Sunday through Tuesday much of Luzon will be drenched with heavy showers including the Manila area mainly on Monday. The hardest hit areas should be along the north eastern coast of Luzon where up to 200-300mm of rainfall could come down on Sunday night through Monday. Flooding and landslides across North Eastern Luzon will be likely on Monday. The Iligan and Tuguegarao areas could see urban flooding as well making travel for anyone headed out on Monday not only rough but possibly impossible at times.

The good news is the storm is moving at a relativly fast pace of 15km thus the rainfall shouldnt last over a long period of time and will be over by Monday afternoon in eastern Luzon.

Winds Winds will also be an issue for towns along the eastern coastlines north of the storms center of circulation. Here we could see damaging typhoon strength winds maxing out with gust as high as 90-100kts at times for coastal exposed locations. Good news as we always state with this part of the Philippines is that typhoons are not that uncommon. In fact most towns are built inland away from immediate coastal areas due to the fact that it is hit so often.

Surge Storm surge in immediate low lying areas will also be an issue. But only along immediate coastlines and areas that often flood during high tides.

Manila For the most part the NCR should miss the worst of this storm. But based on guidance at this time Tropical Storm strength winds up to 35-40kts are likely as we head through Monday morning and the storm tracks north of the city. The strongest winds will be along the bay area dissapating the farther you go inland.

This is enough to blow around light debris making for dangerous driving conditions. In SHORT its going to be a messy Sunday and Monday in Luzon. Stay tuned to your official agency PAGASA for local warnings and as always be smart about how you plan your day during these storms. If you are being advised to evacuate, get to an evacuation center! Stay safe everyone.”- westernpacificweather.com/2014/09/14/typhoon-kalmaegi-luis-nearing-landfall-sunday/

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ Russia: Severe Tropical Storm HALONG 11W 101800Z nr 41.2N 137.3E, moving N at 45km/h(25kt)(JMA) 2 Dead, 1.6 million displaced (WestPacWx) – Updated 100814 2130z (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm 1411 /11W HALONG

Japan: 2 Dead, 1.6 million displaced (WestPacWx)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

Japan Meteorological agency (RSMC Tokyo is the lead agency in this area)

Click map for source

Click map for source

Japan Radar

Japan Radar and Nowcasts (Precipitation, Thunder, Tornadoes) CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE AND ANIMATION – JMA

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

Click on image for source

STS 1411 (HALONG)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 10 August 2014

<Analyses at 10/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N41°10′(41.2°)
E137°20′(137.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 45km/h(25kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE560km(300NM)
NW390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 11/06 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44°00′(44.0°)
E137°05′(137.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 966hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N46°50′(46.8°)
E136°40′(136.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
 Unit:

1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

 

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Aug, 2014 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm HALONG (11W) currently located near 34.1 N 134.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Click image for source (tropicalstormrisk.com)

STS Halong Leaves 2 Dead and over a million displaced (Sunday Afternoon Update)

Halong Leaves Japan

Severe Tropical Storm Halong tore across Western Japan Sunday Afternoon bringing torrential rain and gale force winds. Now the storm is moving out over the sea of Japan but outer rain bands will continue to impact Japan through Monday.

Two deaths have now been a direct result of the storm, over 1.6 million people have been displaced and millions of dollars in damages have occurred due to flooding.

NHK is reporting a women died due to flood waters in the Takamatsu River Sunday. Saturday morning a 78 year old man was swept away in rising flood waters in Iwate Prefecture.

Furthermore this weekend is the Obon weekend in Japan where millions of people are traveling to visit the graves of ancestors.  With over 400 flights cancelled and Shinkansen lines shut down many of those people are stuck at airports and stations waiting for service to resume.

Typhoon Broadcast Cut Short For Earthquake Broadcast

To cap things off a 6.1M earthquake sent a scare through residents of northern Japan around 1PM JST. The image to the right shows typhoon warnings being aired on NHK with the earthquake warning over laid.

The disaster unfolding across Japan should come as no surprised though, this storm has been slowly working its way north towards Japan for nearly a week now. Following Tropical Storm Nakri which brough torrential rainfall and then a stationary front that lingered over Japan this week the grounds of Shikoku, Kyushu and Western Honshu were already saturated and unable to bring in any more rainfall.

Now in the past 48hrs along Typhoon Nakri has dumped well over 1,000mm in parts of Kochi Prefecture on Shikoku. While other parts of western Japan have seen above 800mm in total. You can find this information at this link. 

For only the second time in 2014 JMA has issued an emergency warning. It was issued in Mie Prefecture for ground loosening rains. This is the highest level on JMAs warning scale and indicates a very serious threat to the loss of life.

In Shimamoto near where Videographer and Westpacwx Team Member James Reynolds is there has been reports of damage to homes after rivers in the Shimamoto river swelled when Halong came ashore. You can follow his twitter account as he documents the storm there below.

..

 

..

Western Pacific Weather first reported on this threat a week ago after the storm passed Guam and started tracked towards Japan.

Halong will continue to track over the Sea of Japan Sunday Night through Monday pulling in moisture from the south and eventually getting sheared to the east. What this means in short is heavy rainfall can be expected across Central and Northern Japan to start off the work week.

Over 100mm even in to the Tokyo area is possible as well. Around noon on Sunday Tornado Advisories were issued in the Tokyo Metro area due to strong cells rolling through the city.

For the most part the weather in Tokyo should not be to severe but it will be enough to cause delays on the roads and even localized flooding.

 

Halong Information

COULD RUSSIA GET HIT BY A TYPHOON OR A TS?

The bigger question is could the Russian Far East get impacted by Tropical Storm Strength winds, that seems like a more likely yes, but will Halong maintain its tropical characteristics farther to the north is unlikely. We will continue to track the progression of the storm but even Vladivostok could be looking at rough conditions by Monday and Tuesday of this coming week.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP22 RJTD 101800
WARNING 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1411 HALONG (1411) 975 HPA
AT 41.2N 137.3E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 25 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 44.0N 137.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
966 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 46.8N 136.7E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 101800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 978 HPA
AT 54N 168E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 54N 168E TO 56N 173E 55N 179E.
WARM FRONT FROM 55N 179E TO 54N 180E 52N 177W 48N 174W.
COLD FRONT FROM 55N 179E TO 50N 175E 46N 170E 43N 165E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 43N 165E TO 41N 159E 40N 153E 40N 146E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 400
MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 47N 152E
55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 41N 180E 40N 170E 38N 153E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 11N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 33N 116E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 61N 142E SSE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 46N 153E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 36N 160E ALMOST STATIONARY.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 138E TO 43N 141E 41N 143E 40N 146E.
COLD FRONT FROM 39N 135E TO 36N 131E 34N 125E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1413 GENEVIEVE (1413) 965 HPA AT 31.5N 172.1E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1411 HALONG (1411) 975 HPA AT 41.2N 137.3E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

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South Korea/ Yellow Sea: Severe Tropical Storm NAKRI 1412 12W 021500Z near 33.7N 124.8E, moving N at 10km/h(6kt)(JMA) – Updated 020814 1837z (UTC)

Tropical Storm NAKRI

1412 (JMA) #12W (JTWC)

 9/02/20149/03/2014

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS NOW OUT OF DATE

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency (JMA is the lead agency in this area)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

TS 1412 (NAKRI)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 2 August 2014

<Analyses at 02/15 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N33°40′(33.7°)
E124°50′(124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E560km(300NM)
W370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 03/03 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N34°50′(34.8°)
E124°35′(124.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 03/15 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°25′(35.4°)
E125°10′(125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N36°30′(36.5°)
E126°50′(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slowly
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N38°00′(38.0°)
E129°00′(129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
 Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

South Korea

Korea Meteorological Administration

No.12 NAKRI

Issued at(KST) : 2014.08.03. 01:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2014.08.02. 15:00 Analysis 33.5 124.7 985 25 90 300
(NNE 260)
Normal Medium N 11
2014.08.03. 03:00 Forecast 34.6 124.8 990 24 86 250
(NNE 220)
Weak Small N 10 100
2014.08.03. 15:00 Forecast 35.5 125.1 994 21 76 210
(NNE 180)
Weak Small NNE 9 150
2014.08.04. 03:00 Forecast 36.1 125.6 996 19 68 150
(NE 120)
Weak Small NE 7 210
2014.08.04. 15:00 Forecast 36.6 126.2 1000 NE 6

�� It is provided only for the typhoon information in progress. The past information could be found in National Typhoon Center homepage.

�� National Typhoon Center Homepage

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1214.gif

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp12140215.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/12W_021132sair.jpg

WTPN32 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
021200Z — NEAR 33.3N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.3N 124.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z — 34.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 35.3N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 36.1N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 36.9N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 39.0N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 33.6N 124.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND
031500Z. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logo

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Aug, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NAKRI (12W) currently located near 32.7 N 124.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    China
        probability for TS is 75% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 72 hours
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Sariwon (38.5 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    P’yongyang (39.0 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Other Reports

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 021200
WARNING 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1412 NAKRI (1412) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 980 HPA
AT 33.3N 124.5E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 34.6N 124.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 35.4N 125.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 36.5N 126.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 38.0N 129.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1200

WWJP25 RJTD 021200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 51N 157E
60N 163E 60N 180E 40N 180E 40N 160E 36N 150E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 56N 142E ESE SLOWLY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 42N 153E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 53N 166E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 29N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 40N 174E EAST SLOWLY.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1411 HALONG (1411) 935 HPA AT 14.9N 135.1E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1412 NAKRI (1412) 980 HPA AT 33.3N 124.5E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA /1200

WWCI50 BABJ 021200
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1530UTC AUG.02 2014=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC AUG. 02=
FORECAST VALID 1200UTC AUG. 03=
WARNNING=
SUPER TY HALONG 1411(1411) 940HPA AT 15.1N 135.1E
MOVING WNW 12KM/H AND MAX WINDS 58M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 19.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
300KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
480KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
AND PADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
160KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
210KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
AND PADIUS OF 64KTS WINDS
70KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
AND FORECAST FOR 031200UTC AT 16.2N 132.5E 910HPA
AND MAX WINDS 65M/S NEAR CENTER=
TS NAKRI 1412(1412) 985HPA AT 32.8N 124.6E
MOVING NNW 12KM/H AND MAX WINDS 23M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 7.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
400KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
400KM SOUTHWEST
350KM NORTHWEST
AND FORECAST FOR 031200UTC AT 35.3N 125.1E 995HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
WINDS FROM 12 TO 18M/S GUST 23M/S SEAS UP TO 5.5M
OVER SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 16 TO 23M/S GUST 28M/S SEAS
UP TO 6.0M OVER NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
AND BASHI CHANNEL AND SOUTH PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 14 TO 20M/S GUST 23M/S SEAS UP TO
6.0M OVER KOREA STRAIT=
SLY WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
4.0M OVER SEA NEAR RYUKYU ISLANDS AND SEA SOUTHWEST
OF JAPAN=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 38 TO 50M/S SEAS UP TO 15.0M
OVER SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 20 TO 28M/S SEAS UP TO 9.0M
OVER SEA WEST OF GUAM=
WINDS FROM 42 TO 52M/S SEAS UP TO 17.0M OVER SEAS
NEAR CENTER OF HALONG=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER SOUTH PART
OF YELLOW SEA AND NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND
SEA NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN AND KOREA STRAIT AND SEA
SOUTHWEST OF JAPAN AND SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA
ISLANDS AND ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
AND SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT BANDA AND LAUT MALUKU=
FORECAST=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 16 TO 24M/S GUST 25 TO 32M/S
SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER MIDDLE AND SOUTH PARTS OF
YELLOW SEA AND NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
NE WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS
UP TO 4.0M OVER NORTH PART OF YELLOW SEA=
NE WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S GUST 17M/S SEAS UP TO
2.5M OVER BOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT=
SW WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER
SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT
AND MIDDLE PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER SEA
EAST OF TAIWAN AND BASHI CHANNEL AND SOUTH PART OF
SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 17M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SOUTHWEST PART FO JAPAN SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 16 TO 24M/S SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER
KOREA STRAIT=
SLY/SE WINDS FROM 08 TO 17M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=
NW WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S WILL INCREASE FROM 18 TO
24M/S SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER SEA NORTHEAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 33 TO 41M/S SEAS UP TO 14.0M
OVER SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS=
SW WINDS FROM 18 TO 24M/S SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER SEA
WEST OF GUAM=
WINDS FROM 50 TO 60M/S SEAS UP TO 18.0M OVER
SEAS NEAR CENTER OF HALONG=

China/ Taiwan: Tropical Storm Matmo (10W): 240600Z near 29.1N 117.9E, moving N at 25kmh(13knots) (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 240714 0745z (UTC)

Tropical Storm  1410 (MATMO) ( RSMC Tokyo)

Tropical Storm  201410 (MATMO) (CWB Taiwan)

 Tropical Storm 10W (MATMO)(TWC)

Bagyong Henry (#HenryPH) in Philippines

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

RSMC Tokyo (Lead agency in this area)

Japan Meteorological agency

TS 1410 (MATMO)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 24 July 2014

<Analyses at 24/06 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N29°05′(29.1°)
E117°55′(117.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E500km(270NM)
W330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 24/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N32°50′(32.8°)
E118°35′(118.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 25/06 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N35°55′(35.9°)
E120°35′(120.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TAIWAN

Typhoon Path

Taiwan Weather Warning

HONG KONG

Tropical Storm MATMO
at 08:00 HKT 24 July 2014

Position: 27.9 N, 117.9 E (about 730 km north-northeast of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 85 km/h

Tropical Cyclone Track at 08:00 HKT 24 July 2014

Tropical Cyclone Track at 08:00 HKT 24 July 2014

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
08:00 HKT 25 July 2014 33.4 N 119.7 E Tropical Depression 45 km/h
08:00 HKT 26 July 2014 38.4 N 123.5 E Tropical Depression 55 km/h
08:00 HKT 27 July 2014 40.1 N 127.0 E Extratropical Low

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The accuracies, based on average errors, of the latest analysed and forecast positions are of the order of:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 150 km
    48-hour forecast position 250 km
    72-hour forecast position 350 km
  • The centres of the red, blue and grey circles are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure). The radii of the circles are the respective accuracies.
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are based on Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warning for shipping issued eight times a day at 0:30, 3:30, 6:30, 9:30, 12:30, 15:30, 18:30 and 21:30 HKT, about one and a half hours after the time of observation. The analysed positions incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based provisional positions given in the hourly bulletins for public. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/10W_231132sair.jpg

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 231500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 025
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 10W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 25.8N 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8N 119.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 28.0N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 30.6N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 26.4N 118.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEGENERATE AS
IT TRAVERSES NORTH IN EASTERN CHINA ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SITUATED OVER THE RYUKYU ISLAND CHAIN.
MATMO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
TOPOGRAPHICAL FRICTION AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER
LAND, APPROXIMATELY 150NM WEST OF SHANGHAI IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
IT IS ABSORBED IN THE MID-LATITUDE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 23 Jul, 2014 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm MATMO (10W) currently located near 25.8 N 119.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

OTHER REPORTS

Matmo Weakens but still causing problems. ( Thursday Update )

MARITIME

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 240600
WARNING 240600.
WARNING VALID 250600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1410 MATMO (1410) 990 HPA
AT 29.1N 117.9E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 32.8N 118.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 35.9N 120.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0000

WWJP25 RJTD 240000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 240000.
WARNING VALID 250000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 38N 142E 40N 142E
42N 141E 42N 143E 46N 150E 51N 157E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 44N
180E 38N 160E 38N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 48N 134E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 42N 147E ENE 15 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 49N 148E ENE 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 10N 135E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 08N 148E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 24N 136E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 47N 176E ALMOST STATIONARY.
WARM FRONT FROM 42N 147E TO 40N 150E 38N 151E.
COLD FRONT FROM 42N 147E TO 40N 145E 38N 141E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 38N 141E TO 37N 133E 36N 120E 32N 115E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1410 MATMO (1410) 990 HPA AT 27.9N 117.7E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 0600

WWCI50 BABJ 240000
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 0330UTC JUL.24 2014=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000UTC JUL. 24=
FORECAST VALID 0000UTC JUL. 25=
WARNNING=
STS MATMO 1410(1410) 990HPA AT 27.9N 117.9E
MOVING N 30KM/H AND MAX WINDS 23M/S AND
FORECAST FOR 250000UTC AT 34.5N 118.8E 998HPA
AND MAX WINDS 15M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
SLY WINDS FROM 14 TO 22M/S GUST 26M/S SEAS UP TO
4.5M OVER EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT AND
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND NORTHEAST PART OF
SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 14M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
3.0M OVER BASHI CHANNEL AND SOUTHWEST PART OF
SOUTH CHINA SEA=
FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SOUTH PARTS OF
YELLOW SEA AND HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS
THAN 5KM=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM ALSO OVER
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA AND
SUNDA STRAIT=
FORECAST=
SE WINDS FROM 06 TO 08M/S BACK NE WINDS FROM 12
TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER BOHAI SEA
AND BOHAI STRAIT AND NORTH AND MIDDLE PARTS
OF YELLOW SEA=
SLY/SE WINDS 12 TO 18M/S GUST 22M/S SEAS
UP TO 3.5M OVER SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA
AND NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
SLY/SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUST 24M/S SEAS
UP TO 4.5M OVER SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
AND TAIWAN STRAIT AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 14M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
3.5M OVER BASHI CHANNEL=
SW WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM 14 TO 20M/S GUST 24M/S
TO 08 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER NORTHEAST PART
OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 14M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
3.0M OVER SOUTH PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 12 TO 14M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP
TO 3.0M OVER SEA WEST OF GUAM=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 14M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP
TO 2.5M OVER SEA NORTHEAST OF INDONESIA=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 0000

WWHK82 VHHH 240000
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
TROPICAL STORM (TS) MATMO(1410):
RADIUS OF GALES: 90 NM OVER E SEMICIRCLE, 60 NM ELSEWHERE.
SYNOPSIS (240000UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MATMO (1410) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TS.
AT 240000UTC, MATMO WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA AND
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KT WAS CENTERED WITHIN 60 NM OF 27.9N
117.9E AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE N AT ABOUT 14 KT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 250000UTC: 33.4N, 119.7E
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER GALE WARNING AREA.
SWELL S TO SW 3 M OVER SEAS NEAR LUZON, SEAS NEAR TAIWAN,
NE PART OF SCS.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQUALLY(SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) WITHIN 180 NM FROM CENTRE OF MATMO(1410).
SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF
SCS AND SEAS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VIS 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

 http://www.passageweather.com/maps/chinasea/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Hainan/ China/ Vietnam: Typhoon Rammasun/ Glenda (09W): 181800Z near 21.0N 109.4E, moving NW at 20kmh (11kt)(JMA) – Updated 180714 2012z (UTC)

THIS IS NOW OUT OF DATE

Typhoon

Rammasun/Glenda was from 17 to 19 July 2014

Typhoon Rammasun/Glenda (09W)

(Equivalent to a CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

TY 1409 (RAMMASUN) (JMA)

Rammasun has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 Super Typhoon (1-min sustained winds) and is now affecting Hainan and other parts of Southern China. This highly catastrophic storm is one of the strongest cyclones to ever hit Southern China and will affect as much as 20 million people over the next 24 hours – WestPacWx

 Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours – TSR

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

Japan Meteorological agency

TY 1409 (RAMMASUN)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 18 July 2014

<Analyses at 18/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N21°00′(21.0°)
E109°25′(109.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E330km(180NM)
W220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 19/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°55′(21.9°)
E107°35′(107.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 19/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N22°35′(22.6°)
E105°50′(105.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 20/18 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N23°05′(23.1°)
E104°20′(104.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 1002hPa
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Hong Kong

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
Bulletin issued at 03:45 HKT 19/Jul/2014

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

All signals were cancelled at 3:40 a.m.

At 4 a.m., Severe Typhoon Rammasun was centred about 540 kilometres west-southwest of Hong Kong (near 21.3 degrees north 109.1 degrees east) and is forecast to move northwest or west-northwest at about 22 kilometres per hour across Beibu Wan towards the coast of Guangxi.

Rammasun is moving across Beibu Wan and will soon make landfall over the coast of Guangxi. As Rammasun gradually moves away from Hong Kong, local winds continue to moderate. Yet there will still be squally showers today.

Since there will be swells, members of the public should remain on the alert.

Super Typhoon RAMMASUN
at 02:00 HKT 19 July 2014

Position: 20.9 N, 109.5 E (about 510 km west-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 185 km/h
Forecast moving direction and speed: northwest or west-northwest, 22 km/h

Tropical Cyclone Track at 02:00 HKT 19 July 2014

Tropical Cyclone Track at 02:00 HKT 19 July 2014

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
23:00 HKT 19 July 2014 22.5 N 106.1 E Typhoon 120 km/h
23:00 HKT 20 July 2014 22.7 N 103.0 E Low Pressure Area 40 km/h

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The accuracies, based on average errors, of the latest analysed and forecast positions are of the order of:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 150 km
    48-hour forecast position 250 km
    72-hour forecast position 350 km

     

  • The centres of the red, blue and grey circles are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure). The radii of the circles are the respective accuracies.
  • The analysed tropical cyclone position (the symbol tropical cyclone symbol ) is based on Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly bulletin for public derived from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions.
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are updated every hour. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong, and forecast moving direction and speed.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/09W_181132sair.jpg

 

 

WTPN32 PGTW 181500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 033
DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON 09W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
181200Z — NEAR 20.3N 110.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 110.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 21.5N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 22.6N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 23.4N 104.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 109.8E.
TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251 NM EAST OF
HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 35
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 18 Jul, 2014 12:00 GMT

Typhoon RAMMASUN (09W) currently located near 20.3 N 110.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
   China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Rammasun has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 Super Typhoon (1-min sustained winds) and is now affecting Hainan and other parts of Southern China. This highly catastrophic storm is one of the strongest cyclones to ever hit Southern China and will affect as much as 20 million people over the next 24 hours.

Watch WxCaster PAT’s latest Video Update below for more in-depth analysis and forecasts for Super Typhoon Rammasun.

China Meteorological Administration (CMA) confirmed landfall at the city of Wenchang on the Northeastern part of Hainan Island. A weather station in this city recorded winds of 180kph to as much as 220kph! The city of Haikou is also reporting sustained typhoon-force winds of up to 130kph and gusts of up to 165kph! Another highly-populated city that this system is affecting is Zhanjiang which is home to nearly 1.2 million people (nearly 7 million people metro-wide).

CCTV has now reported at least one confirmed death due to the storm. 

Radar Image from CMA

rammasun radar hainan

Latest radar image out of Hainan shows the perfectly symmetrical eye now moving into Leizhou Peninsula. Widespread heavy rains

Via CCTV

are affecting much of Hainan and parts of Guangdong Province. Outer rain bands are moving as far away as Hong Kong bringing light to moderate rains in the area. We are expecting anywhere from 200 to as much as 300mm of rainfall over the next 24 hours for Hainan and Leizhou. This will only compound to the already damaging winds in the area. Furthermore, coastal areas will also be dealing with significant storm surge especially along the eastern portions of Leizhou Peninsula.

For the latest radar images and warnings from China, please click HERE (CMA Website)

As many as 40,000 people have been told to evacuate ahead of the storm in the area.

 

Super Typhoon Rammasun will continue moving slowly northwestward and will continue to bring damaging weather conditions across Southern China for the next 12 hours. It will move into the Gulf of Tonkin and will weaken slightly but will still be a significant threat for Guangxi Province and Northern Vietnam.

——

Storm

Before the storms impact on China Typhoon Glenda (Sawyerean name Gøring, International name Rammasun) struck Metro Manila and is probably the strongest to hit Metro Manila since Typhoon Milenyo of 2006.

The storm has now caused at least 64 deaths, as tallied by the National Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC).

In Metro Manila, damage has been extensive. Until now power is yet to be restored in many areas, and Meralco announced of rotating blackout as the power supply in Luzon areas are insufficient to meet demands, due to damaged transmission lines and substations.

The rotating blackouts will ensue until the power supply stabilized, and Meralco has not yet established a definite timetable for this.

The strongest winds pummeled the Metro between 6 to 9 in the morning, where ferocious winds battered the metro. Lots of old trees, some as old as hundred years, fell, and many power lines were knocked out.

Roxas BLVD Via Rappler

 

We’ll continue to have updates on Rammasun as well as on the newest Tropical Storm (Matmo or Bagyong Henry) out in the Philippine Sea. Please stay safe and always heed the warnings of your local officials!

” –

NEWS

Australia Network News

At least one person killed after southern China’s strongest typhoon in four decades: state media

Updated 1937 UTC 18 July 2014

China’s state media says at least one person has been killed after southern China’s strongest typhoon in four decades made landfall in Hainan.

The National Meteorological Centre says Super Typhoon Rammasun ploughed into Wengtian, a town on the northeastern tip of the island, yesterday afternoon.

It was packing winds of up to 216 kilometres an hour.

Ahead of the typhoon’s arrival, hundreds of thousands of people were evacuated and hundreds of flights cancelled.

Super Typhoon Rammasun has already killed at least 54 people in the Philippines and is bringing heavy rains.

 

The Hainan government says it has ordered fishermen back to port while many flights, and all train services, are cancelled.

State television says access to all scenic spots on the island, which styles itself as China’s answer to Hawaii, had been closed, and 30,000 people evacuated from low-lying coastal areas.

Premier Li Keqiang, describing the situation as severe, says people’s lives must be put first.

“Prevent any accidents that may be caused (by the typhoon) and reduce disaster losses as much as possible,” the Hainan government cites Premier Li as saying.

Typhoons are common at this time of year in the South China Sea, picking up strength from the warm waters and dissipating over land.

Flooding across a large swathe of southern China in the past week has already killed at least 34 people.

Reuters/AFP

Preparing for a storm

  • Prepare an emergency kit based on the list here.
  • Make a note of the location of any item not in your kit.

During a Storm

  • Monitor your local emergency broadcaster for updates, warnings and advice
  • While conditions are severe, remain indoors and stay clear of windows
  • Make contact with neighbours and family members to ensure they’re safe and prepared
  • If you’re in your car, don’t drive into water without knowing the strength of the current and depth
  • Slow down, turn on your headlights and be aware of hazards on the roads such as powerlines and trees

After a Storm

  • Stay clear of creeks, drains and other water ways, as there’s a risk of flooding including flash floods
  • Be careful of fallen trees, powerlines and damaged buildings
  • Don’t go sightseeing, you could hamper the efforts of emergency services
  • Check on your neighbours as soon as it’s safe to do so

For more information, see ABC Emergency’s storm plan page

MARITIME

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 181800
WARNING 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1410 MATMO (1410) 994 HPA
AT 11.1N 132.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 13.5N 130.0E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 16.6N 127.4E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 19.2N 123.6E WITH 210 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 181200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 141E 43N 142E
51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 31N 172E 43N 165E 36N 157E 35N
141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 35N 150E SE 10 KT.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 31N 172E ENE 20 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 30N 142E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 49N 163E WEST 10 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1409 RAMMASUN (1409) 940 HPA AT 20.3N 110.2E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1410 MATMO (1410) 1000 HPA AT 10.6N 133.5E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 1200

WWCI50 BABJ 181200
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1530UTC JUL.18 2014=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC JUL. 18=
FORECAST VALID 1200UTC JUL. 19=
WARNNING=
SUPERTY RAMMASUN 1409(1409) 915HPA AT 20.3N 110.3E
MOVING WNW 22KM/H AND MAX WINDS 55M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 12.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
260KM NORTHEAST
300KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
260KM NORTHWEST
AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
140KM NORTHEAST
160KM SOUTHEAST
140KM SOUTHWEST
140KM NORTHWEST
AND RADIUS OF 64KTS WINDS
60KM NORTHEAST
60KM SOUTHEAST
60KM SOUTHWEST
60KM NORTHWEST
FORECAST FOR 191200UTC AT 22.6N 106.4E 995HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
TS MATMO 1410(1410) 994HPA AT 10.9N 133.5E
MOVING NW 10KM/H AND MAX WINDS 20M/S NEAR
CENTER (SEAS UP TO 3.5M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
130KM NORTHEAST
230KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
280KM NORTHWEST
FORECAST FOR 191200UTC AT 12.7N 131.9E 985HPA
AND MAX WINDS 28M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
WINDS FROM 26 TO 34M/S GUST 38 TO 44M/S SEAS UP TO
8.5M OVER NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA AND
QIONGZHOU STRAIT=
WINDS FROM 42 TO 55M/S SEAS UP TO 12.0M OVER
SEA NEAR CENTER OF RAMMASUN=
SE WINDS FROM 14 TO 18M/S GUST 22M/S SEAS UP TO
4.5M OVER NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 18 TO 24M/S GUST 26 TO 30M/S SEAS UP
TO 5.5M OVER MID-WEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 20 TO 25M/S SEAS UP TO 5.0M OVER
NORTHEAST PART OF BEIBU GULF=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER
SOUTH PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 14 TO 20M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M
OVER SEA WEST OF GUAM=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER PART
OF BOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT AND YELLOW SEA AND
NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA AND QIONGZHOU
STRAIT AND SEA WEST OF GUAM AND ANDAMAN SEA AND
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE
AND SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT MALUKU AND LAUT BANDA=
FORECAST=
WINDS FROM 25 TO 34M/S SEAS UP TO 8.5M OVER
NORTH PART OF BEIBU GULF AND QIONGZHOU STRAIT=
WINDS FROM 20 TO 25M/S GUST 30 TO 35M/S SEAS UP
TO 7.0M OVER AND SOUTH PART OF BEIBU GULF AND
NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 40 TO 48M/S SEAS UP TO 11.0M OVER SEA
NEAR CENTER OF RAMMASUN=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUST 24M/S SEAS UP TO
4.5M OVER NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUST 24M/S SEAS UP TO
4.5M OVER MID-WEST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF SOUTH
CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
3.5M OVER SOUTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 18 TO 24M/S GUST 25 TO 32M/S
SEAS UP TO 5.0M OVER SEA WEST OF GUAM=
WINDS FROM 25 TO 30M/S SEAS UP TO 7.5M OVER SEA
NEAR CENTER OF MATMO=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 1200

WWHK82 VHHH 181200
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
SUPER TYPHOON (SUPERT) RAMMASUN(1409):
RADIUS OF GALES :150NM N SEMICIRCLE, 120NM ELSEWHERE.
RADII OF STORMS, HURRICANES:90NM, 45NM.
SYNOPSIS (181200UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
AT 181200UTC, SUPERT RAMMASUN (1409) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
925 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS 105 KT WAS CENTERED WITHIN 10 NM
OF 20.3N 110.3E AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW OR WNW AT ABOUT
12 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 191200UTC: 22.4N, 106.5E
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6M, 10M, 14M OVER GALE, STORM, HURRICANE WARNING AREAS.
SWELL S TO SE 3-5 M OVER NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
(SCS).
SWELL SW 3-5 M OVER CENTRAL PART OF SCS.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQ SH AND TS WITHIN 360 NM FROM CENTRE OF
RAMMASUN(1409).
SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS NEAR PHILIPPINES.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VIS DOWN TO 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.=

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

 http://www.passageweather.com/maps/chinasea/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South China Sea/ Philipines/ Luzon/ China/ Vietnam: Typhoon Rammasun/ Glenda (09W): 160900Z near 15.4N 118.0E, moving WNW at 20 knots (JMA) moving towards Bajo De Masinloc, Zambales (PAGASA) – Updated 160714 1153z (UTC)

NOW OUT OF DATE

LATEST HERE

http://wp.me/p2k2mU-2NX

Typhoon Rammasun/Glenda (09W)

(Equivalent to a CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

TY 1409 (RAMMASUN) (JMA)

Philipines:

Typhoon “ ” is now over the West Philippine Sea moving towards Bajo De Masinloc, Zambales (PAGASA)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

GUAM

National Weather Service Forecast OfficeWFO Guam

NO active tropical cyclones at this time
Wed, 16 Jul 2014 21:03:34 ChST

Japan Meteorological agency

TY 1409 (RAMMASUN)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 16 July 2014

<Analyses at 16/09 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°25′(15.4°)
E118°00′(118.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 16/21 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°35′(16.6°)
E115°35′(115.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 17/09 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°50′(17.8°)
E113°25′(113.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 18/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°35′(19.6°)
E110°50′(110.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 19/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°10′(21.2°)
E107°30′(107.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Philippines

PAGASA-DOST

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

#GlendaPH Weather Bulletin #13 as of 5:00 PM, 16 July 2014

PUBLIC STORM WARNING SIGNAL #1
Laguna, Batangas, northern part of Occidental and Oriental Mindoro,
Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bataan, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Lubang Island, Pangasinan and Metro Manila

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/09W_160532sams.jpg

WTPN32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 15.1N 119.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 119.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 16.2N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 17.4N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 18.6N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z — 19.6N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 21.3N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 22.7N 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 118.5E.
TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 16 Jul, 2014 6:00 GMT

Typhoon RAMMASUN (09W) currently located near 15.1 N 119.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
    Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
    Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
    Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
    Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com

Typhoon Rammasun (Glenda) Evening Update | July 16, 2014 – WestPacWx

Watch WxCaster PAT’s Latest Video Update on Typhoon Rammasun (Bagyong Glenda):

Typhoon Rammasun is now moving away from Luzon, Philippines and is heading towards Southern China. Residual rain showers are still lingering across Luzon but we expect those to become more spotty and gradually taper off by tomorrow. Some areas are still under Signal #1 however: Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bataan, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Lubang Island, Pangasinan, and Metro Manila.

IR Image from NOAA

071614 0932z ir analysis

Meanwhile, Typhoon Rammasun is now moving across the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) and is forecast to re-intensify as it moves across the open waters. Forecasts from different agencies are bringing the typhoon towards the island of Hainan by Friday afternoon and then into Northern Vietnam (or perhaps in Guangxi Province in China) by Saturday afternoon. Heavy rains and damaging winds will threaten the areas mentioned later this week.

We are also watching a developing Low Pressure Area (LPA) east of the Philippines. Some computer models are showing some development for this disturbance and so we will continue monitoring this area for intensification.

 

New Tropical Depression

Impacts from the Storm in Luzon

At least ten deaths (via reuters) have been reported across the Philippines Wednesday due to Typhoon Rammasun / Glenda. This storm brought typhoon strength winds across southern Luzon forcing at least 370,000 people to evacuate ahead of the storm.   The city of Manila was practically shut down following all finical markets, offices and schools being closed on Wednesday.   A 25-year-old woman was killed when she was hit by a falling electricity pole as Rammasun hit the east coast on Tuesday, the Philippine disaster agency said. A pregnant woman was killed when a house wall collapsed in Lucena City in Quezon province south of the capital.   Wide spread blackouts were also reported across Luzon including the Metro Manila area where at least 85% of the city lost power.   A Singapore Airlines Boeing 777-200 suffered a hole on its left wing when wind gusts pushed the aircraft five metres across the tarmac at Manila airport, hitting equipment parked nearby.   At least four southeastern provinces on Luzon declared, or were about to declare, a state of calamity, allowing the local governments to tap emergency relief funds. This includes Albay where the storm made landfall Tuesday Evening. More than 200 international and domestic flights have been cancelled.  

If you have any videos or images from Typhoon Glenda, please share them with us on our Facebook Page. Stay safe!

 

The Agencies

Yes there are numerous agencies warning on the storm. The ones featured in the video above area JMA, JTWC and PAGASA.. To get a good idea on where it is exactly going check out some of the links below.

” –

NEWS

Typhoon kills 10 in Philippines but eases before heading for China

“(Reuters) – A typhoon killed at least 10 people as it churned across the Philippines and shut down the capital, cutting power and prompting the evacuation of more than 400,000 residents, rescue officials said.

The eye of Typhoon Rammasun, the strongest storm to hit the country this year, passed south of Manila after cutting a path across the main island of Luzon, toppling trees and power lines and causing electrocutions and widespread blackouts.

By Wednesday evening, the storm was easing in the capital and markets and public offices were due to reopen on Thursday. Some schools were to remain closed.

Manila Electric Company (MER.PS) said 76 percent of the area it serves was without power, compared with 86 percent earlier in the day.

“Our weather is improving as the typhoon is moving further away,” Rene Paciente of the weather bureau said, adding storm alerts in various part of the country were lifted or lowered.

The number of evacuated residents had reached 409,000, Wilma Cabrera, the Social Welfare Assistant Secretary, told Reuters.

Many of those forced from their homes were in the eastern province of Albay, the first to be hit by the typhoon, the disaster agency said. They were taken to schools, gymnasiums and town halls for shelter.

Officials said 460,000 had been affected by the storm.

Major roads across Luzon were blocked by debris, fallen trees, electricity poles and tin roofs ripped off village houses. The storm uprooted trees in the capital, where palm trees lining major arteries were bent over by the wind as broken hoardings bounced down the streets.

Public Works and Highways Secretary Rogelio Singson and Admiral Alexander Pama, the executive director of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, surveyed the typhoon-affected areas by helicopter.

“I am happily surprised because of the minimal casualties and damage,” Singson said, adding the typhoon had passed through the most populated area of the country, with about 17 million people living in its path.

Singson and Pama said the government was more prepared after the devastation caused by Super Typhoon Haiyan in November, evacuating people at risk in coastal and landslide-prone areas well before the typhoon made landfall.

Parts of the Philippines are still recovering from Haiyan, one of the biggest cyclones known to have made landfall anywhere. It killed more than 6,100 in the central provinces, many in tsunami-like sea surges, and left millions homeless.

Tropical Storm Risk, which monitors cyclones, downgraded Rammasun to a category-one storm on a scale of one to five as it headed northwest into the South China Sea. Haiyan was category five. A category-one storm has maximum sustained winds of 95 mph (153 kph) But it predicted Rammasun would gain in strength to category-three within a couple of days, picking up energy from the warm sea as it heads for the Chinese island of Hainan.

 

TACLOBAN HIT AGAIN

The storm brought sea surges to Manila Bay and prompted disaster officials to evacuate slum-dwellers on the capital’s outskirts.

Rhea Catada, who works for Oxfam in Tacloban, which suffered the brunt of Haiyan, said thousands of people in tents and coastal villages had been moved to higher ground.

“They are scared because their experiences during Haiyan last year are still fresh,” she said. “Now they are evacuating voluntarily and leaving behind their belongings.”

Social Welfare Secretary Dinky Soliman said 5,335 families, or nearly 27,000 people, had been affected in Tacloban. Some had returned to the Astrodome, where thousands sought shelter and dozens drowned during storm surges in the November disaster.

A woman of 25 was killed when she was hit by a falling electricity pole as Rammasun hit the east coast on Tuesday, the disaster agency said. A pregnant woman was killed when a house wall collapsed in Lucena City south of Manila.

Nearly 400 flights were grounded during a four-hour closure of Manila airport. Two airliners suffered minor damage when gusts blew them into nearby obstacles, airport officials said.

Train services in the capital were suspended because of the lack of power. Ferry services were suspended, including to the holiday island of Boracay where 300 tourists were stranded.

(Additional reporting by Karen Lema and Erik dela Cruz; Writing by Nick Macfie; Editing by Ron Popeski)” – Reuters

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/16/us-philippines-typhoon-idUSKBN0FL07520140716

 

MARITIME

Marine Page – WFO Guam

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0900

WTJP32 RJTD 160900
WARNING 160900.
WARNING VALID 170900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1409 RAMMASUN (1409) 960 HPA
AT 15.4N 118.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 162100UTC AT 16.6N 115.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170900UTC AT 17.8N 113.4E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 160600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 160600.
WARNING VALID 170600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 138E 35N 141E
42N 143E 47N 152E 54N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 39N 180E 38N 148E 33N
142E 33N 138E 35N 138E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 57N 144E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 49N 147E EAST SLOWLY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 40N 175E EAST 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 10N 137E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 30N 141E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 38N 149E ESE SLOWLY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N 111E TO 30N 120E 34N 130E 38N 139E 37N
143E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1409 RAMMASUN (1409) 960 HPA AT 15.1N 119.1E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 0600

WWCI50 BABJ 160600
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1015UTC JUL.16 2014=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC JUL. 16=
FORECAST VALID 0600UTC JUL. 17=
WARNNING=
TY RAMMASUN 1409(1409) 970HPA AT 14.9N 119.2E
MOVING WNW 25KM/H AND MAX WINDS 35M/S NEAR CENTER
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
250KM NORTHEAST
300KM SOUTHEAST
370KM SOUTHWEST
200KM NORTHWEST
AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
100KM NORTHEAST
130KM SOUTHEAST
170KM SOUTHWEST
100KM NORTHWEST
AND RADIUS OF 65KTS WINDS
60KM NORTHEAST
60KM SOUTHEAST
60KM SOUTHWEST
60KM NORTHWEST
AND FORECAST FOR 170600UTC AT 17.3N 114.7E 955HPA
AND MAX WINDS 42M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
SLY/SE WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN=
ELY/NE WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER
NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA AND BASHI CHANNEL=
WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
MID-EAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 23 TO 33M/S SEAS UP TO 11.0M OVER SEA
NEAR CENTER OF TY RAMMASUN=
WLY WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SOUTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
SOUTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 16 TO 23M/S SEAS UP TO 6.5M OVER SEA
WEST OF LUSON OF THE PHILIPPINES=
FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER BOHAI STARIT AND PARTS OF
YELLOW SEA AND HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM ALSO OVER SEA
SOUTH OF JAPAN AND COASTAL WATERS WEST OF LUSON AND
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERAAND AND MALACCA
STRAIT AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA STRAIT
AND MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT BANADA=
FORECAST=
WINDS FROM 23 TO 30M/S GUST 33 TO 40M/S SEAS
UP TO 11.0M OVER MID-EAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 33 TO 42M/S GUST 46 TO 52M/S SEAS
UP TO 14.0M OVER SEA NEAR CENTER OF TY RAMMASUN=
WINDS FROM 13 TO 20M/S WILL INCREASE FROM 23 TO
28M/S GUST 30 TO 35M/S SEAS UP TO 9.0M OVER
NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
ELY/SE WINDS FROM 18 TO 23M/S GUST FROM 25 TO 30M/S
SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA
SEA=
NW WINDS FROM 14 TO 23M/S GUST FROM 25 TO 30M/S SEAS
UP TO 7.0M OVER MID-WEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 13 TO 20M/S GUST 23M/S SEAS UP TO
5.5M OVER SOUTH PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
ELY WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUST 23M/S SEAS UP TO
5.5M OVER BASHI CHANNEL=
SE WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S GUST 16M/S SEAS UP TO
1.5M OVER SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA
EAST OF TAIWAN=
NE WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
QIONGZHOU STRAIT=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 0600

WWHK82 VHHH 160600
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
TYPHOON (T) RAMMASUN(1409):
RADII OF GALES, STORMS AND HURRICANES: 120NM, 60NM AND 30NM.
SYNOPSIS (160600UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
AT 160600UTC, T RAMMASUN (1409) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960
HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KT WAS CENTERED WITHIN 60 NM OF
15.1N 119.1E AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WNW AT ABOUT 12 KT FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 170600UTC: 17.4N, 115.0E
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6M, 10M AND 14M OVER GALE, STORM, HURRICANE WARNING
AREAS.
SWELL E TO SE 4-7 M OVER SEAS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES.
SWELL NE 3 M OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH CHINA
SEA (SCS) LATER.
SWELL SW 3 M OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF SCS LATER.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQ SH AND TS WITHIN 240 NM FROM CENTRE OF
RAMMASUN(1409).
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

 http://www.passageweather.com/maps/chinasea/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Kyushu/ Okinawa/ Japan: Typhoon NEOGURI 08W/ FLORITA (=CAT3-SS) 081700Z nr 28.8N 125.7E, moving N at 13 knots (JMA) Leaving Southern Japanese islands, heading toward Kyushu (WestPacWx) – Updated 080714 1830z (UTC)

TYPHOON NEOGURI 1408 (JMA)

(Equivalent to a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) (JTWC)

Typhoon Neoguri is leaving behind the southern Japanese islands Tuesday night and now sets its eyes ahead towards the southern coast of Kyushu.(WestPacWx)

25 People injured in Okinara, 2 died at sea in Western Japan (NHK)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

JMA IS THE LEAD AGENCY IN THIS AREA

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Analysis Chart (CLICK IMAGE FOR ANIMATION/SOURCE)

 

Japan Radar (JMA) Radar and Nowcasts (Precipitation, Thunder, Tornadoes): Japan (CLICK IMAGE FOR ANIMATION/SOURCE)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

CLICK ON IMAGE TO GO TO JMA WARNINGS PAGE

TY 1408 (NEOGURI)
Issued at 17:50 UTC, 8 July 2014

<Analyses at 08/17 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°50′(28.8°)
E125°40′(125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE310km(170NM)
NW170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE700km(375NM)
NW440km(240NM)
<Estimate for 08/18 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N29°00′(29.0°)
E125°40′(125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE310km(170NM)
NW170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE700km(375NM)
NW440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 09/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°30′(30.5°)
E126°10′(126.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area SE350km(190NM)
NW260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 09/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°20′(31.3°)
E127°30′(127.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area SE370km(200NM)
NW310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N31°40′(31.7°)
E132°25′(132.4°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area SE480km(260NM)
NW430km(230NM)
<Forecast for 11/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N34°00′(34.0°)
E138°10′(138.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

SOUTH KOREA

Korea Meteorological Administration

Typhoon

Forecast Chart

No.8 NEOGURI

Issued at(KST) : 2014.07.09. 01:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2014.07.08. 15:00 Analysis 28.3 125.6 945 45 162 400
(W 350)
Very Strong Medium N 22
2014.07.09. 03:00 Forecast 30.5 126.0 955 41 148 360
(WNW 310)
Strong Medium N 21 100
2014.07.09. 15:00 Forecast 31.9 128.0 965 38 137 320
(NW 270)
Strong Medium NE 20 150
2014.07.10. 03:00 Forecast 32.3 130.6 970 36 130 300
(NW 270)
Strong Medium E 20 210
2014.07.10. 15:00 Forecast 33.2 133.5 980 31 112 280
(NW 230)
Normal Small ENE 25 250
2014.07.11. 03:00 Forecast 35.4 137.6 985 27 97 250
(NW 200)
Normal Small ENE 38 325
2014.07.11. 15:00 Forecast 38.5 142.3 990 24 86 230
(NW 180)
Weak Small ENE 45 400
2014.07.12. 15:00 Forecast 45.7 151.1 996 NE 45

�� It is provided only for the typhoon information in progress. The past information could be found in National Typhoon Center homepage.

�� National Typhoon Center Homepage

2014

COMS : 2014/07/09 01:45 (KST)

PHILIPPINES

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Severe Weather Bulletin #6 (FINAL) issued at 10AM July 08, 2014

TY FLORITA is now outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility ( PAR).

At 9AM today, the eye was located @ 610 km NE of Basco, Batanes (25.4N,126.0E), with maximum winds/gustiness:185/220 kph. It is forecast to move North @ 20 kph. It will continue to enhanced the SW monsoon bringing moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over Palawan, Mindoro, Cavite, Batangas, Zambales and Bataan while the rest of Luzon and western Visayas will have occasional rains. Sea travel is risky over the northern, eastern, & southern seaboards of Luzon and the western seaboards of southern Luzon and of Visayas. It is expected to be at 200km Northwest of Okinawa, Japan this evening. PAGASA-DOST

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 081500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 27.8N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 125.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 29.9N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 31.2N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 31.9N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 19 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 33.0N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 22 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 37.7N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 29 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 47.3N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 28.3N 125.8E.
TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 37 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
NNNN

 

Prognostic Reasoning

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jul, 2014 12:00 GMT

 

Typhoon NEOGURI (08W) currently located near 27.8 N 125.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
 Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
  South Korea
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

WestPacWX

Western Japan Braces for Neoguri, Forecast and Impacts

 

Vis Sat

Typhoon Neoguri is leaving behind the southern Japanese islands Tuesday night and now sets its eyes ahead towards the southern coast of Kyushu.

Several thousand residents from the islands southern coastlines have been told to evacuate ahead of Typhoon Neoguri due to the threat of storm surge near the coast and flash flooding farther inland. Heavy rains due to the rainy season front have already saturated the ground here.  In parts of southern Kyushu up to 200mm of rainfall is expected through Wednesday evening.

Winds in the Amani islands off the southern coast of Kyushu could see gust as high as 126kph through Wednesday Evening. 11 meter high waves are expected on the Amani islands.

TCCOR 1 Will likely be issued for the military in Sasebo. If not typhoon warnings via JMA are still in place.

Damaging winds as high as 130kph gusting to 185kph at landfall in Kagoshima is in the forecast by Thursday morning as Typhoon Neoguri makes landfall along the southern Coast of Kyushu as the equivalant of a Category 1 storm. 

These winds will be over a small area though and the bulk of the area will see 90kph sustained winds.

In Kagoshima and Miyazaki up to 400-500mm of rainfall is likely as moisture wraps around Neoguri is pushed on shore in to the mountains of the Western Japan. Flash flooding, landslides and rapid river level rise will be a high threat here.

Even though the storm in Okinawa is very dangerous the overall impact on infrastructure and the risk of flooding and landslides will likely result in more damage across Kyushu despite it being a slightly weaker storm.

Flood Threat in Western Japan

Farther north the rain will be the biggest issue though. Across much of Honshu flooding will be a problem through Friday including in the Tokyo area river level rise will be one of the main threats from this storm.

The rainfall in the Kanto Plain will likely start by Thursday evening and last through Friday as the Center of Neoguri pushes over mainland Japan.

At this time no cancellations of flights in Tokyo have been made but anyone who plans on traveling should be prepared for the risk of delays cancellations.

Expect Neoguri to weaken rapidly over Japan. It will still carry with it a deluge of moisture but the center of circulation will be torn apart over the mountains of Japan.

Tragedy in Kochi

High waves ahead of Neoguri caused a capsize off of Kochi Prefecture in Shikoku resulting in one death on Tuesday. Waves at the time of the capzise were 4 meters high according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Typhoon Neoguri Live Coverage

 The video update is now over, you can watch the playback above, continued updates and new information will be posted below.  For latest track and extended info. go to the tropical information center.  or find us on facebook. Typhoon Neoguri now moving over the southern Japanese islands, max winds reported is up to 191kph. At this

Read More…

Typhoon Neoguri Damage and Impact Information

Typhoon Neoguri now moving over and away from the southern Japanese islands, max winds reported is up to 191kph. At this time 590,000 have been advised to evacuate. On the main island of Okinawa most of these are in the Ginowan area near coastal locations.  Once again with the evacuation advisories, it states. “Authorities are telling them to

Read More…

 

Violent Typhoon Neoguri will blow past Okinawa on Tuesday (Monday Night Update)

Residents in Southern Japan should now be hunkered down and prepared to ride out Typhoon Neoguri as it races north towards Okinawa, Kume-Jima, Miyako-Jima and Ishigaki on Tuesday. PLEASE CHECK BACK IN FOR A LIVE CAST ON OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL Despite the forecast taking the center of the storm west of Okinawa the wind field

Read More…

Violent “Super” Typhoon Neoguri Nears Okinawa, Evacuations in Kyushu Underway

End

Okinawa Emergency Action Guide

American Red Cross Okinawa

Okinawa Red Cross Hospital

Kadena AFB, Okinawa Facebook page

MARITIME

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP31 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1408 NEOGURI (1408) 950 HPA
AT 28.4N 125.7E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 30.5N 126.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 31.3N 127.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 081200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 998 HPA
AT 34N 153E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 142E 43N 142E
51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 37N 180E 36N 170E 39N 167E 39N 155E 40N
142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 42N 162E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 27N 142E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 51N 153E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 55N 170E SSE 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 124E TO 36N 130E 38N 136E 35N 141E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 161E TO 32N 164E 36N 166E 37N 170E 40N 173E
41N 179E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1408 NEOGURI (1408) 945 HPA AT 27.7N 125.7E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Okinawa/ Naha/ Japan/ Philippines: Typhoon NEOGURI/ FLORITA 08W 061500Z nr 19.3N 129.9E, moving WNW at 11 knots (JTWC) Nearing Okinawa and southern Japanese islands (WestPacWx) – Updated 060714 1518z

Typhoon NEOGURI/ FLORITA now a Super Typhoon. Latest update here: http://wp.me/p2k2mU-2JX