Vietnam /Cambobia /Thailand /West Pacific: Severe Tropical Storm DAMREY 28W 022100Z 13.0N 114.4E, moving W 11 kt (JMA) – Updated 02 Nov 2017 2230z (GMT/UTC)

 Severe Tropical Storm DAMREY 28W

(RAMIL in PH)

Damrey expected to become a Typhoon equal to a Category 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale prior to landfall in Vietnam

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 16 FEET – JTWC

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1723-001

STS 1723 (Damrey)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 2 November 2017

 <Analysis at 21 UTC, 2 November>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N13°00′ (13.0°)
E114°25′ (114.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 440 km (240 NM)
SE 330 km (180 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N12°30′ (12.5°)
E112°00′ (112.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°25′ (12.4°)
E109°40′ (109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N12°35′ (12.6°)
E105°10′ (105.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated1

NCHMF VIETNAM

TROPICAL STORM WARNING
TC TRACKS
TROPICAL STORM WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

1 Friday, November 03, 2017 12.9 114.5 STS 93 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

1 Saturday, November 04, 2017 12.2 110.3 TY 120 km/hour
1 Sunday, November 05, 2017 12.1 105.3 TD 46 km/hour
13 Sunday, November 05, 2017 12.0 103.1 Low 37 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 5:00 AM Friday, November 03, 2017
Satellite Imagery

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 28W (Damrey) Warning #05
Issued at 02/2100Z

wp28171

28w_021800sair

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 28W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
021800Z — NEAR 12.7N 114.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 114.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 12.4N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z — 12.1N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 12.0N 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 12.0N 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z — 11.5N 100.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 113.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 28W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.
//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Nov, 2017 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm DAMREY is currently located near 12.7 N 114.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). DAMREY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Cambodia
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Nha Trang (12.2 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Phan Rang (11.6 N, 109.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Kon Tum (14.3 N, 108.0 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Laos
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Thailand
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kracheh (12.5 N, 106.0 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Phan Thiet (10.9 N, 108.1 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Phnom Penh (11.6 N, 104.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
    Ho Chi Minh City (10.8 N, 106.7 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
    Siemreab (13.4 N, 103.9 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201728w1201728w_01

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17110303

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 022100

WTJP31 RJTD 022100
WARNING 022100.
WARNING VALID 032100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1723 DAMREY (1723) 985 HPA
AT 13.0N 114.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 12.5N 112.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 032100UTC AT 12.4N 109.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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Okinawa/ Japan/ South Korea/ Russia/ West Pacific: SUPER TYPHOON LAN 25W 211500Z position nr 24.7N 132.9E, moving NNE 16kt (JTWC) – Updated 21 Oct 2017 1612z (GMT/UTC)

SUPER TYPHOON LAN (25W)

(=CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 41 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Super Typhoon 25W (Lan) Warning #25
Issued at 21/1500Z

wp25174

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
211200Z — NEAR 23.8N 132.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 025 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
265 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 132.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 27.3N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 330 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
415 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 23 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 31.4N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 370 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
315 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
430 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 33 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 36.7N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 400 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
420 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
325 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
395 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 39 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 42.0N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
490 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
390 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 132.9E.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 307 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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1721-004

993

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

TY 1721 (Lan)
Issued at 15:50 UTC, 21 October 2017

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 21 October>
Scale Very large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N24°30′ (24.5°)
E132°55′ (132.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 280 km (150 NM)
NW 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area W 1100 km (600 NM)
E 950 km (500 NM)
<Estimate for 16 UTC, 21 October>
Scale Very large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N24°40′ (24.7°)
E133°00′ (133.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 280 km (150 NM)
NW 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area W 1100 km (600 NM)
E 950 km (500 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 21 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N26°20′ (26.3°)
E133°25′ (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 50 km (25 NM)
Storm warning area SE 310 km (170 NM)
NW 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N28°30′ (28.5°)
E133°55′ (133.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N30°40′ (30.7°)
E134°55′ (134.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (24 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N32°55′ (32.9°)
E136°35′ (136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

NOAA

rb_lalo-animated22

TROPICAL STORM (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at21 Oct, 2017 12:00 GMT

Typhoon LAN is currently located near 23.8 N 132.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 130 kts (150 mph). LAN is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. LAN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201725w4201725w_04

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METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 RJTD 211500
WARNING 211500.
WARNING VALID 221500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1721 LAN (1721) 925 HPA
AT 24.5N 132.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 600 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 500 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 28.5N 133.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 32.9N 136.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1200

WWJP25 RJTD 211200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1004 HPA
AT 54N 138E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 54N 138E TO 53N 141E 52N 142E.
WARM FRONT FROM 52N 142E TO 49N 144E 46N 146E.
COLD FRONT FROM 52N 142E TO 49N 142E 44N 138E 41N 130E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 129E 30N 130E 28N 125E 20N 120E 23N 117E 26N
120E 32N 122E 35N 129E.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 11.6N 148.3E MARIANAS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 40N 142E
42N 140E 42N 143E 47N 152E 50N 155E 40N 155E 34N 180E 29N 180E 29N
170E 29N 155E 36N 141E.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1034 HPA AT 47N 159E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 130E TO 32N 134E 34N 140E 36N 146E 35N 152E
34N 157E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1721 LAN (1721) 925 HPA AT 23.8N 132.5E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ Russia: Tropical Storm Talim 20W 17/1500Z update from JTWC and others – Updated 17 Sep 2017 1547z (GMT/UTC)

 Tropical Storm Talim 20W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET – JTWC

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 20W (Talim) Warning #36
Issued at 17/1500Z

 

 

wp2017 TALIM JTWC 17

20W_171200sair TALIM 17

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
171200Z — NEAR 34.1N 134.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 050 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 134.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 39.5N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
390 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 29 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 44.8N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 35.5N 135.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

1718-00 TALIM JMA 17

JP WARNING

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

rb_lalo-animated3

STS 1718 (Talim)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 17 September 2017

<Analysis at 14 UTC, 17 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N35°20′ (35.3°)
E135°40′ (135.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 190 km (100 NM)
NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)
<Estimate for 15 UTC, 17 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N35°40′ (35.7°)
E136°05′ (136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 190 km (100 NM)
NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N40°40′ (40.7°)
E139°25′ (139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 60 km/h (33 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area NE 410 km (220 NM)
SW 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N45°50′ (45.8°)
E142°35′ (142.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 50 km/h (28 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area E 600 km (325 NM)
W 370 km (200 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Sep, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm TALIM is currently located near 34.1 N 134.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). TALIM is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk (47.0 N, 142.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201720W TALIM TSR1 17

201720W_0 TALIM TSR2 17

Russia

17.9.2017 16:00 | Day 18 September with saving until the end of the day in the Kaliningrad region, heavy rain is expected to wind up to 25 m/s.

17.9.2017 12:00 | On the night of September 18 in the Orenburg region expected freezing on soil (temperature to -2°).

16.9.2017 22:00 | Day 17 September and the first half of the night 18 September in the Irkutsk region precipitation (rain, wet snow), wind 18-23 m/s, storms, the establishment of a temporary snow cover.

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in the South Kuril and Kuril regions expected strong winds up to 35-40 m/s (hurricane), strong, sometimes very heavy rain (15-49 mm, 50 mm or more for 12:00).

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in southern Sakhalin and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk is expected to be very heavy rain (30 mm for 12:00), wind 25-30 m/s, gusts of 33-38 m/s (hurricane); 19 September in rivers podjomy water levels on the sharp 0.5 m -1.0.

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 and 19 September night in the East of Primorsky Krai expected places heavy rain (15-45 mm for 12:00 or less), wind 15-20 m/s, on the coast with gusts up to 28 m/s.

“In Monday, when Typhoon Talim will move along the western coast of Japan on water area of the sea of Japan, it will have an impact on the weather, the eastern half of the Primorski Krai. Rains of varying intensity, on the East coast of possible heavy rains and strong winds to the 20-25 m/s.

Ex-Talim will bring on Sakhalin and southern Kuril Islands rain and wind up to 15-20 m/s In the zone Tuesday spread to Northern Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. In Thursday afternoon in the southern area of the wind will die down, the Northern Islands will still windy.” – Russian National Forecaster (link)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

JP MARITIME 17

JP WX MAP 17

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1718 TALIM (1718) 975 HPA
AT 34.4N 134.6E SHIKOKU MOVING NORTHEAST 26 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 40.7N 139.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 45.8N 142.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Laos/ Vietnam/ Thailand: Severe Tropical Storm DOKSURI 21W 14/1500Z Update from JMA and others – Updated 15 Sep 2017 1830z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm DOKSURI 21W

(Please note date and time of forecasts carefully, JMA is the lead agency for this area)

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

1719-00 DOKSURI JMA 15.png

rb_lalo-animated DOKSURI SAT.gif

STS 1719 (Doksuri)
Issued at 16:10 UTC, 15 September 2017

Scale
Intensity
Center position N18°05′ (18.1°)
E103°50′ (103.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 390 km (210 NM)
S 330 km (180 NM)
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N19°20′ (19.3°)
E100°35′ (100.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N20°40′ (20.7°)
E97°40′ (97.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting
Address: No. 4 Dang Thai Than Street, Hoan Kiem District, Ha Noi
Tel: 84-4-38244919; 84-4-38244916; 84-4-82416000
E-mail: vanphong@nchmf.gov.vn

TROPICAL STORM WARNING
TC TRACKS
TROPICAL STORM WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

16 Friday, September 15, 2017 17.9 105.3 TS 76 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

22 Friday, September 15, 2017 18.4 104.0 TD 52 km/hour
04 Saturday, September 16, 2017 18.7 102.3 L 37 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 PM Friday, September 15, 2017

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Sep, 2017 0:00 GMT

Typhoon DOKSURI is currently located near 17.8 N 107.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 100 kts (115 mph). DOKSURI is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DOKSURI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Laos
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Thailand
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Dong Ha (16.9 N, 107.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Louangphrabang (19.9 N, 102.1 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Vientiane (18.0 N, 102.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

201721W DOKSURI TSR1

201721W_0 DOKSURI TSR2

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 RJTD 151500
WARNING 151500.
WARNING VALID 161500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1719 DOKSURI (1719) 990 HPA
AT 18.1N 103.8E THAILAND MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 19.3N 100.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161500UTC AT 20.7N 097.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ West Pacific: Typhoon SANVU 17W 311500Z position 28.1N 142.0E, moving N 07 kt (JTWC) – Updated 31 Aug 2017 1608z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Sanvu 17W

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 28 FEET – JTWC

wp201717_5day SANVU JTWC

(Image: @wunderground)

wp201717_sat SANVU

(Image: @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 17W (Sanvu) Warning #13
Issued at 31/1500Z

wp1717 JTWC

17W_311200sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SANVU) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
311200Z — NEAR 27.9N 141.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 141.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 28.7N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 29.5N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
255 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z — 31.7N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 22 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 35.8N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 28 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 46.6N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 305 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
375 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
285 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 28.1N 142.0E.
TYPHOON 17W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 51 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

jma-logo3

TY 1715 (Sanvu)
Issued at 13:50 UTC, 31 August 2017

1715-00 SANVU JMAJPWARN SANVU

 <Analysis at 14 UTC, 31 August>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N27°50′ (27.8°)
E141°55′ (141.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 950 km (500 NM)
W 500 km (270 NM)
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N27°55′ (27.9°)
E141°55′ (141.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 950 km (500 NM)
W 500 km (270 NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°10′ (28.2°)
E142°55′ (142.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE Slow
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°35′ (28.6°)
E143°10′ (143.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE Slow
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N33°20′ (33.3°)
E146°10′ (146.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 440 km (240 NM)
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N45°00′ (45.0°)
E150°10′ (150.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 55 km/h (30 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 410 km (220 NM)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 31 Aug, 2017 12:00 GMT

Typhoon SANVU is currently located near 27.9 N 141.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). SANVU is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. SANVU is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Japan
probability for TS is 85% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Russian Federation
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201717W TSR1

(Image: TSR)

201717W_0 TSR2

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

seawarn sanvu

17083121 jma map

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500
WTJP31 RJTD 311500
WARNING 311500.
WARNING VALID 011500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1715 SANVU (1715) 965 HPA
AT 27.9N 141.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 27.8N 142.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 28.5N 143.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=======================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

West Pacific: Typhoon Banyan 14W 151500Z position 29.3N 162.6E, moving N 13 kt (JTWC) – Updated 15 Aug 2017 1350z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Banyan 14W

(= CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 25 FEET. (JTWC)

(Image: @wunderground)

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 14W (Banyan) Warning #11
Issued at 13/1500Z

 

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 28.5N 162.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 005 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 162.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 31.5N 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 35.0N 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 29 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 39.2N 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 32 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 44.0N 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 29.3N 162.6E.
TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

TY 1712 (Banyan)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 15 August 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 15 August>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°20′ (28.3°)
E162°10′ (162.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 60 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 280 km (150 NM)
W 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 16 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°10′ (31.2°)
E162°55′ (162.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 16 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N34°40′ (34.7°)
E166°05′ (166.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 40 km/h (22 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 August>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N43°00′ (43.0°)
E177°30′ (177.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55 km/h (30 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)

Units:
1 kt (knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1 nm (nautical mile) = 1.852 km

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 151200

WTJP21 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1712 BANYAN (1712) 975 HPA
AT 28.3N 162.2E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 31.2N 162.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 34.7N 166.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 43.0N 177.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Taiwan/ Japan/ China: Typhoon Nesat 11W 290900Z 23.9°N 122.4°E, moving NNW 20 km/h (11 kt) (JMA)- Updated 29 Jul 2017 1130z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Nesat 11W

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

⚠️ Taiwan, Ishigaki Island, Ryukyu Islands (Japan) and China BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z  IS 32 FEET- JTWC

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

Himawari 8 near real time (link)

TY 1709 (Nesat)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 29 July 2017

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 29 July>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N23°55′ (23.9°)
E122°25′ (122.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 390 km (210 NM)
N 280 km (150 NM)
<Estimate for 10 UTC, 29 July>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N24°05′ (24.1°)
E122°20′ (122.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 390 km (210 NM)
N 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 29 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N24°50′ (24.8°)
E119°30′ (119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (35 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 140 km (75 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 30 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25°05′ (25.1°)
E118°10′ (118.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 100 km (55 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27°35′ (27.6°)
E118°20′ (118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 1 August>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N29°30′ (29.5°)
E117°35′ (117.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 11W (Nesat) Warning #14
Issued at 29/0900Z

 

 

WTPN34 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (NESAT) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
290600Z — NEAR 23.3N 122.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 122.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 24.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 25.0N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 25.6N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 27.2N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 31.4N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 122.2E.
TYPHOON 11W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (TWELVE)WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Jul, 2017 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NESAT is currently located near 23.3 N 122.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). NESAT is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NESAT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

(Image: JMA)

 

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 290900

WTJP34 RJTD 290900
WARNING 290900.
WARNING VALID 300900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1709 NESAT (1709) 960 HPA
AT 23.9N 122.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 24.8N 119.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 25.1N 118.2E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Vietnam/ Laos/ Thailand: Tropical Storm SONCA 08W 25/0900Z nr 17.1°N 107.0°E, moving W 09 knots (CMA) – Published 25 Jul 2017 1257z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm SONCA 08W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 12 FEET (JTWC)

Typhoon Message

20170725 17:17


National Meteorological Center No.306
Analysis Time: Jul. 25th 09 UTC
Name of TC: SONCA
Num. of TC: 1708
Current Location: 17.1°N 107.0°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 20m/s(72km/h)
Central Pressure: 996hPa
Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 90km SE 90km SW 90km NW 90km
Forecast movement: next 24hrs SONCA will moving W at speed of 15km/h

 

 

TS 1708 (Sonca)
Issued at 10:10 UTC, 25 July 2017

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 25 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N16°55′ (16.9°)
E106°55′ (106.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 25 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N16°55′ (16.9°)
E104°55′ (104.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 26 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N17°00′ (17.0°)
E102°50′ (102.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 08W (Sonca) Warning #18 Final Warning
Issued at 25/0900Z

 

 

WTPN32 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (SONCA) WARNING NR 018
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
250600Z — NEAR 17.0N 107.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 107.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z — 17.1N 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 17.0N 103.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 106.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (SONCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM NORTHWEST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 250600Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 25 Jul, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm SONCA is currently located near 17.0 N 107.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). SONCA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Laos
        probability for TS is 80% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

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(Image: DoctorAdvice4u.com)

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MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

WWJP25 RJTD 250600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 147E 50N 152E 58N 152E 58N 172E 52N 170E 40N
151E 40N 147E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 139E 42N 141E
55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 41N 180E 38N 165E 38N 150E 33N 142E 33N
139E 35N 139E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 27N 139E NE SLOWLY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 49N 141E EAST SLOWLY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 55N 149E ENE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 13N 129E WNW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 24N 123E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 47N 179E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 36N 120E TO 37N 129E 37N 136E 38N 140E 39N 144E
46N 152E 50N 155E 52N 162E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1705 NORU (1705) 970 HPA AT 25.9N 157.5E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1706 KULAP (1706) 1002 HPA AT 32.8N 155.0E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1708 SONCA (1708) 994 HPA AT 17.1N 107.7E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 250600

WTJP23 RJTD 250600
WARNING 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1708 SONCA (1708) 994 HPA
AT 17.1N 107.7E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 17.2N 105.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 17.2N 103.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Vietnam/ Laos/ China: Severe Tropical Storm TALAS 06W 161200Z nr 18.5N 107.2E, moving WNW 12kt (JMA) – Published 16 Jul 2017 1410z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm TALAS 06W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 14 FEET (JTWC)

STS 1704 (Talas)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 16 July 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 16 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N18°30′ (18.5°)
E107°10′ (107.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 440 km (240 NM)
NW 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 17 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N18°40′ (18.7°)
E104°20′ (104.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N19°25′ (19.4°)
E100°55′ (100.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

 

hko_logo

Tropical Storm TALAS
at 17:00 HKT 16 July 2017

Position: 18.4 N, 107.8 E (about 790 km west-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 85 km/h
Talas will move across Beibu Wan today, and then move into the inland areas of Indo-China and dissipate gradually.

Tropical Cyclone Track at 17:00 HKT 16 July 2017

Tropical Cyclone Track at 17:00 HKT 16 July 2017

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
17:00 HKT 17 July 2017 19.3 N 101.6 E Tropical Depression 45 km/h
17:00 HKT 18 July 2017 20.5 N 96.7 E Low Pressure Area 25 km/h

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The tropical cyclone symbol in different colours are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure).
  • While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm. The yellow shaded area on the map indicates the probable area within which the tropical cyclone will fall with a probability of 70% (‘Potential Track Area’). Literally, it means that in 10 times of track forecast for similar situations, the tropical cyclone will be centred within the indicated area in about 7 times. The area grows as the forecast hour increases. It will be particularly larger beyond 72 hours and is indicated with lighter shadings on the map. The size in terms of radius of the ‘Potential Track Area’ corresponding to different forecast hours are determined from the error statistics of the forecasts issued in past years and are as shown in the following table:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 125 km
    48-hour forecast position 225 km
    72-hour forecast position 325 km
    96-hour forecast position 400 km
    120-hour forecast position 500 km
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are based on Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warning for shipping issued eight times a day at 0:30, 3:30, 6:30, 9:30, 12:30, 15:30, 18:30 and 21:30 HKT, about one and a half hours after the time of observation. The analysed positions incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based provisional positions given in the hourly bulletins for public. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 06W (Talas) Warning #04
Issued at 16/0900Z

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (TALAS) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 18.1N 108.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 108.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 18.6N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 19.2N 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 20.0N 100.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 107.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM NORTH OF
DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 16 Jul, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm TALAS is currently located near 18.5 N 107.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). TALAS is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Laos
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    China
        probability for TS is 65% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Thailand
        probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 161200
WARNING 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1704 TALAS (1704) 990 HPA
AT 18.5N 107.2E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 18.7N 104.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 19.4N 100.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

hko_logo

Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

Tropical Cyclone Warning |  Track and Positions of Tropical Cyclones
Current Weather |  Local Weather Forecast |  9-day Weather Forecast
South China Coastal Waters |  Marine Forecast
Severe Weather Information Centre

Tropical Cyclone Warning |  Track and Positions of Tropical Cyclones
Current Weather |  Local Weather Forecast |  9-day Weather Forecast
South China Coastal Waters |  Marine Forecast
Severe Weather Information Centre

Bulletin issued at 18:30 HKT 16/Jul/2017

Tropical Cyclone WarningAt 160900 UTC, Tropical Storm Talas (1704) with central pressure 988 hectopascals was centred within 60 nautical miles of one eight point four degrees north (18.4 N) one zero seven point eight degrees east (107.8 E) and is forecast to move west or west-northwest at about 14 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 45 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 45 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 240 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 170900 UTC
One nine point three degrees north (19.3 N)
One zero one point six degrees east (101.6 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 180900 UTC
Dissipated over land.


The Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warnings for shipping are issued about one and a half hours after the time of observation. They incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions given in the hourly bulletins for public.

While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm.
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ West Pacific: Severe Tropical Storm Nanmadol (1703, 05W) 04/1000Z nr 34.1N 137.1E, moving E 65 km/h (36 kt) (JMA) – Updated 04 Jul 2017 1130z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Nanmadol (1703, 05W)

JAPAN beware!

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

 

 

STS 1703 (Nanmadol)
Issued at 10:45 UTC, 4 July 2017

<Analysis at 10 UTC, 4 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N34°05′ (34.1°)
E137°05′ (137.1°)
Direction and speed of movement E 65 km/h (36 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 220 km (120 NM)
N 110 km (60 NM)
<Estimate for 11 UTC, 4 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N34°10′ (34.2°)
E137°50′ (137.8°)
Direction and speed of movement E 65 km/h (36 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 220 km (120 NM)
N 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°40′ (35.7°)
E144°00′ (144.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 5 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N37°20′ (37.3°)
E151°35′ (151.6°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 6 July>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44°30′ (44.5°)
E171°10′ (171.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 85 km/h (45 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)

===============================================================

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 05W (Nanmadol) Warning #10
Issued at 04/0900Z

 

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 04/0900Z

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
040600Z — NEAR 33.6N 134.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 075 DEGREES AT 34 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.6N 134.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 35.3N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 33 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 36.9N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 34.0N 136.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 34
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
NNNN

Tropical Storm Risk

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 4 Jul, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NANMADOL is currently located near 33.6 N 134.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). NANMADOL is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 65% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

News Report

 

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 040600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 41N 142E
46N 150E 53N 160E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 30N 160E 30N 140E 35N
140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 994 HPA AT 57N 154E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 994 HPA AT 51N 164E NORTH 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 17N 133E NW 15 KT.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 43N 148E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 26N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 122E TO 36N 124E 37N 131E 39N 140E 37N 146E
37N 151E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1703 NANMADOL (1703) 992 HPA AT 33.6N 134.2E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 040900

WTJP31 RJTD 040900
WARNING 040900.
WARNING VALID 050900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1703 NANMADOL (1703) 992 HPA
AT 34.1N 136.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 36 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 35.7N 144.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 37.3N 151.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/Taiwan: Severe Tropical Storm Nepartak (1601, 02W) 082100Z POSITION near 23.7N 119.5E, moving N 01 Knot (JTWC) – Updated 08 Jul 2016 2040Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm  Nepartak/ Butchoy in PH (1601, 02W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 18 FEET

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground Satellite

Image: @wunderground Satellite

 Japan Meteorological agency

1601-00 8

 

1601-00 enlarged.png 8

STS 1601 (Nepartak)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 8 July 2016

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 8 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N23°40′ (23.7°)
E119°25′ (119.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 330 km (180 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 9 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25°30′ (25.5°)
E117°20′ (117.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 10 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N28°10′ (28.2°)
E117°30′ (117.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 02W (Nepartak) Warning #24
Issued at 08/2100Z

wp0216 8a

WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 024
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 23.4N 119.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 119.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 24.4N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 25.3N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 26.2N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 27.3N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 119.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at  6 Jul, 2016 6:00 GMT

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jul, 2016 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NEPARTAK is currently located near 23.4 N 119.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). NEPARTAK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Image: TSR

Image: TSR

 

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 081800

WTJP21 RJTD 081800
WARNING 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1601 NEPARTAK (1601) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON
980 HPA
AT 23.7N 119.4E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 25.5N 117.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 28.2N 117.5E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

END

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/ South China Sea: Typhoon Mujigae 22W 03/1200Z 19.5N 113.4E, moving WNW 11 knots (JMA) – Published 03 Oct 2015 1500z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Mujigae 22W

(=CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1522
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TY 1522 (MUJIGAE)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 3 October 2015

<Analyses at 03/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N19°30′(19.5°)
E113°25′(113.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°35′(20.6°)
E111°35′(111.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N21°40′(21.7°)
E109°40′(109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23°30′(23.5°)
E108°20′(108.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 06/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N25°10′(25.2°)
E108°00′(108.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

HKO_banner_eng

tctrack_1519_en

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

(Updated at 20:45 on 3 Oct HKT)

In the past few hours, outer rainbands of Majigae brought heavy squally showers to Hong Kong. Winds occasionally reached gale force in the offshore areas and on high ground. Heavy squally showers are expected to continue to affect Hong Kong in the next few hours.

According to the present forecast track, Mujigae will be closest to Hong Kong from midnight to early tomorrow morning. Mujigae is expected to skirt around 300 kilometres southwest of Hong Kong.

Unless Mujigae adopts a more northerly track or intensifies significantly, the chance of issuing the Gale or Storm Signal No. 8 is not high. However, winds will occasionally reach gale force over the southwestern part of Hong Kong. The Observatory will closely monitor the evolution of Mujigae.

Rainstorm Warning Bulletin

Updated at 21:45

Amber Rainstorm Warning Signal Special Announcement issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 9:45 p.m.

The Rainstorm Warning Signal is now Amber. This means that heavy rain has fallen or is expected to fall generally over Hong Kong, exceeding 30 millimetres in an hour, and is likely to continue.

There will be flooding in some low-lying and poorly drained areas. People who are likely to be affected should take necessary precautions to reduce their exposure to risk posed by the heavy rain and flooding.

Heavy rain may bring about flash floods. People should stay away from watercourses. People who are likely to be affected by flooding should take necessary precautions to avoid losses.

Please listen to radio or watch television for traffic conditions and further announcements on the rainstorm.

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Oct, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon MUJIGAE (22W) currently located near 19.5 N 113.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

HKO – Hong Kong

Bulletin issued at 21:30 HKT 03/Oct/2015

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 031200 UTC, Typhoon Mujigae (1522) with central pressure 965 hectopascals was centred within 30 nautical miles of one nine point five degrees north (19.5 N) one one three point four degrees east (113.4 E) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 10 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 70 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 120 nautical miles.
Radius of over 47 knot winds 60 nautical miles.
Radius of over 63 knot winds 30 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 270 nautical miles over northern semicircle, 240 nautical miles elsewhere.

Forecast position and intensity at 041200 UTC
Two one point five degrees north (21.5 N)
One zero nine point nine degrees east (109.9 E)
Maximum winds 65 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 051200 UTC
Two three point eight degrees north (23.8 N)
One zero eight point four degrees east (108.4 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 061200 UTC
Dissipated over land.

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200
WTJP21 RJTD 031200
WARNING 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1522 MUJIGAE (1522) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970
HPA
AT 19.5N 113.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 20.6N 111.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 21.7N 109.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 23.5N 108.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 25.2N 108.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/ Japan/ Taiwan/ China: Typhoon Dujuan (21W) 25/2100Z near 20.5N 130.7E, moving NNW 7 knots (JTWC) – Updated 25 Sept 2015 2053z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Dujuan (21W)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Ishigakijima, Okinawa, Japan, Taiwan and China beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 25 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1521-00 25

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

TY 1521 (DUJUAN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 25 September 2015

<Analyses at 25/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N19°55′(19.9°)
E131°20′(131.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°05′(22.1°)
E129°05′(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°20′(23.3°)
E126°35′(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°00′(25.0°)
E122°50′(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 21W (Dujuan) Warning #17
Issued at 25/2100Z

wp2115 25

21W_250532sams

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251800Z — NEAR 20.2N 131.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 131.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 21.3N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 22.0N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 22.5N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 23.1N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z — 24.6N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 26.1N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 27.6N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 130.7E.
TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 417 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND
262100Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

Other Reports

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 25 Sep, 2015 18:00 GMT

Typhoon DUJUAN (21W) currently located near 20.2 N 131.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201521W 25A

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

15092603

WWJP25 RJTD 251800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 142E 42N 140E
44N 145E 51N 157E 60N 163E 60N 180E 38N 180E 40N 160E 40N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 39N 137E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 34N 146E EAST 20 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 52N 167E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 994 HPA AT 44N 170E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 14N 147E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 48N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 26N 162E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 132E TO 32N 135E 33N 141E 34N 146E 34N 150E
31N 153E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1521 DUJUAN (1521) 970 HPA AT 20.1N 131.0E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0900

WTJP21 RJTD 251800
WARNING 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1521 DUJUAN (1521) 970 HPA
AT 20.1N 131.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 22.1N 128.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 23.2N 125.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 24.6N 121.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/ Japan: Typhoon Kilo 03C 072100Z POSITION nr 25.9N 160.8E, WNW at 12 knots (JTWC) – Published 07 Sept 2015 2055z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Kilo 1517 03C

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 30 FEET (JTWC)

Typhoon Kilo

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

Typhoon Kilo

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1517

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

TY 1517 (KILO)
Issued at 19:05 UTC, 7 September 2015
<Analyses at 07/18 UTC>
Scale –
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°35′(25.6°)
E162°05′(162.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more N190km(100NM)
S130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N560km(300NM)
S330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 08/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°35′(26.6°)
E159°05′(159.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area N310km(170NM)
S240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°55′(27.9°)
E155°55′(155.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°20′(31.3°)
E151°00′(151.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N35°25′(35.4°)
E148°50′(148.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)

Unit:

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/cp0315.gif

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 073
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071800Z — NEAR 25.6N 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 161.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 26.6N 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 27.9N 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 29.4N 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 31.4N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 35.9N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 19 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 43.2N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 160.8E.
TYPHOON 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1265 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (ETAU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1517 KILO (1517) 955 HPA
AT 25.6N 162.1E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 26.6N 159.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 27.9N 155.9E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 31.3N 151.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 35.4N 148.8E WITH 210 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Kyushu/ Japan/ South Korea: Typhoon Goni (16W) 24/1500Z 30.5N 129.5E, moving NNE at 20 knots (JMA) – Updated 24 Aug 2015 1725Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Goni / Ineng 16W

( = CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 40 FEET- JTWC

Okinawa, Kyushu, JAPAN BEWARE!!

 Taiwan, South Korea, North Korea, Russia & China be aware!

Landfall over Kyushu is expected close to midnight tonight UK time (2300 GMT/UTC)

– UK Met Office

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1515-00 24 1600z
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15082421

CLICK IMAGE FOR LATEST WARNINGS

CLICK IMAGE FOR LATEST WARNINGS

TY 1515 (GONI)
Issued at 16:45 UTC, 24 August 2015

<Analyses at 24/16 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N30°50′(30.8°)
E129°35′(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE170km(90NM)
NW90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL460km(250NM)
<Estimate for 24/17 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N31°05′(31.1°)
E129°50′(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE170km(90NM)
NW90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL460km(250NM)
<Forecast for 24/21 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N32°25′(32.4°)
E130°20′(130.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area SE200km(110NM)
NW140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 25/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N34°35′(34.6°)
E131°00′(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area SE220km(120NM)
NW170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 25/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N35°50′(35.8°)
E131°25′(131.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area SE240km(130NM)
NW190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 25/15 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N36°55′(36.9°)
E131°35′(131.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area SE240km(130NM)
NW200km(110NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 16W (Goni) Warning #43
Issued at 24/1500Z

wp1615 24

wp16152409

16W_241132sair

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 043
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
241200Z — NEAR 29.6N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 035 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.6N 128.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 33.1N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 36.2N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 38.9N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 16 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 42.0N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 30.5N 129.2E.
TYPHOON 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 40
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Prognostic Reasoning

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Aug, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon GONI (16W) currently located near 29.6 N 128.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201516W 24

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

Typhoon Goni set for landfall over Japan – UK Met Office

24 August 2015 – The very active typhoon season in the Pacific Ocean has continued with intense typhoons Goni and Atsani tracking across the ocean during the last week

Whilst Atsani has stayed out at sea, Goni moved very close to the northern tip of the Philippines before making a sharp turn northwards. The typhoon then passed close to Taiwan before starting to move across the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. On Sunday the eye of Typhoon Goni passed over the island of Ishigaki with wind gusts of over 150 mph being recorded.

Goni is still a powerful typhoon as it accelerates north-eastwards towards south-western parts of mainland Japan. Landfall over Kyushu is expected close to midnight tonight UK time (2300 GMT/UTC) . Wind speeds in excess of 100 mph and heavy rain is expected bringing the risk of structural damage, damaging waves, flooding and landslides.

Typhoons Goni and Atsani on 20 August 2015. Image courtesy of The National Institute of Informatics

Typhoons Goni and Atsani on 20 August 2015. Image courtesy of The National Institute of Informatics 

The latest typhoons are part of an extremely active season for tropical cyclones across the whole Pacific Ocean brought about by the developing strong El Niño. In total there have been 28 tropical storms across the northern Pacific this year which includes 18 typhoons or hurricanes (different names for the same features in the west and east Pacific). 13 of the typhoons or hurricanes have been strong enough to be classified as ‘major’ on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Meanwhile the Atlantic has been relatively quiet with just four tropical cyclones so far this season. However, in the last few days Danny became the first hurricane of the season and, despite being downgraded to a tropical storm, is bringing windy and wet conditions to the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean.

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific are produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via on Twitter.

Last updated: 24 August 2015

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 241500

WTJP31 RJTD 241500
WARNING 241500.
WARNING VALID 251500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1515 GONI (1515) 940 HPA
AT 30.5N 129.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 34.6N 131.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 36.9N 131.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY..=

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

TAIWAN/ CHINA: Typhoon Soudelor (13W) 081500Z POSITION near 24.9N 118.9E, moving NW at 08 knots (JTWC) – Updated 080815 1506Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Soudelor (13W)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 26 FEET (JTWC)

TAIWAN AND CHINA BEWARE!

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

Japan Meteorological agency

1513-00 8
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15080821

TY 1513 (SOUDELOR)
Issued at 13:00 UTC, 8 August 2015

<Analyses at 08/12 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N24°55′(24.9°)
E119°30′(119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E650km(350NM)
W500km(270NM)
<Forecast for 09/00 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N26°20′(26.3°)
E117°35′(117.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area NE220km(120NM)
SW190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 09/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27°55′(27.9°)
E116°35′(116.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N30°50′(30.8°)
E116°00′(116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

CWB Taiwan

CWB TAIWAN (Click here)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 13W (Soudelor) Warning #38
Issued at 08/1500Z

wp1315 8

13W_081132sair

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 038
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 24.6N 119.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 119.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 25.9N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 27.6N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 118.9E.
TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Aug, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon SOUDELOR (13W) currently located near 24.6 N 119.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Ganzhou (25.7 N, 115.0 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201513W 8

News Reports

Tropical Storm in Mariana Islands

President Barack Obama has declared the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands a disaster area and is ordering federal aid to help the U.S. territory in the aftermath of a destructive typhoon. The White House on Thursday announced the disaster declaration for Typhoon Soudelor, which destroyed homes, toppled trees and snapped utility poles over the weekend on the 48-square-mile island of Saipan. Damage surveys were ongoing, but the commonwealth remained without electricity and running water, and residents were rationing fuel. Most major roadways have been cleared of uprooted trees and debris, Saipan resident Glen Hunter said. “The morning after the typhoon, you could not get anywhere because of the power poles … and trees that fell on the ground,” lifelong Saipan resident Lucy Selepeo said. “The tin houses, practically everything just flew away. The only thing you can see from the houses are the foundations.” Selepeo said concrete homes that withstood the winds, like hers, are flooded. More than 500 people on Saipan were in shelters, according to the Red Cross. Officials distributed water at various stations across the island. Still, signs of aid remained scarce going into the fifth day after the storm, Selepeo said. “I encountered a family of eight who slept on the beach in their car because their home flew away,” she said. About 50,000 people live on the commonwealth’s four populated islands, with most residing on Saipan, which took the brunt of the storm. Nearby Tinian got some damage, while Rota was spared, said Gregorio Kilili Camcacho Sablan, the commonwealth’s delegate to U.S. Congress. As for Pagan, “No idea,” he said. “I have no way to contact Pagan.” Ten generators were being shipped from Guam to power water pumps in Saipan, but the harbor was closed Thursday because of a listing boat that was half underwater, Sablan said. Restoring power could take a month or two, he said. “I haven’t seen a storm like this in 20 years,” Sablan said. “Unfortunately, the resources we have are hardly enough to get things up.” Wind speeds during the storm were between 100 mph and 120 mph. In an area that’s used to typhoons, Sablan said he and others were expecting it to pass with maybe 80 mph winds. That there were no reports of deaths or serious injury “seems almost impossible,” Hunter said. There initially was a $20-per-vehicle limit on buying gasoline, which meant motorists could get only about four gallons, Hunter said. Some easily burned through that amount while waiting in long lines at the pumps. On Thursday, the limit increased to $50, Sablan said. Gov. Eloy Inos was on vacation visiting his children on the U.S. mainland. “He’s doing everything he can to come back home. … He’s very anxious,” Sablan said. Despite the desperate conditions, residents were hopeful.

“There is nowhere to go but up from here,” Selepeo said. “We’re optimistic. We will recover.”
Saturday, 08 August, 2015 at 04:39 (04:39 AM) UTC RSOE

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

seawarn 8

Marine Warnings: SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA

23:35 JST 08/08/2015

OKINAWA WX
082100JST ISSUED AT 082335JST

STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA SOUTH OF
OKINAWA

TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970HPA AT 24.9N 119.5E MOVING NNW 09KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150NM NE SIDE AND 100NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350NM EAST SIDE AND 270NM ELSEWHERE
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900JST AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 55KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100JST AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 45KT NEAR CENTER

IN SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE-LY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

IN SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100JST AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION

WARNING VALID 092100JST

Marine Warnings: SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA

23:35 JST 08/08/2015

OKINAWA WX
082100JST ISSUED AT 082335JST

STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA SOUTH OF
OKINAWA

TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970HPA AT 24.9N 119.5E MOVING NNW 09KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150NM NE SIDE AND 100NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350NM EAST SIDE AND 270NM ELSEWHERE
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900JST AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 55KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100JST AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 45KT NEAR CENTER

IN SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE-LY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

IN SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100JST AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION

WARNING VALID 092100JST

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN /081200

WTJP21 RJTD 081200
WARNING 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970 HPA
AT 24.9N 119.5E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Minamidaitōjima/ Okinawa/ AmamiŌshima/ Japan/ South Korea: Typhoon Halola (01C) 24/1500Z position near 25.3N 130.6E, moving W at 07 knots (JTWC) – Updated 240715 1508z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Halola (01C)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Minamidaitōjima, Amami Ōshima, Okinawa,  Japan Mainland and South Korea BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 23 FEET (JTWC)

Note: There are differences between forecast agencies

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1512-00 24
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15072415 24

TY 1512 (HALOLA)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 24 July 2015

<Analyses at 24/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°00′(25.0°)
E131°05′(131.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Estimate for 24/13 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°00′(25.0°)
E131°00′(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 24/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°30′(25.5°)
E130°25′(130.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 50km(25NM)
Storm warning area ALL120km(65NM)
<Forecast for 25/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°10′(26.2°)
E129°35′(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 25/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°05′(27.1°)
E128°55′(128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 110km(60NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 25/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°10′(28.2°)
E128°25′(128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
CURRENT WARNINGS - Click image for more detail

CURRENT WARNINGS – Click image for more detail

Korea Meteorological Administration

Typhoon

No.12 HALOLA

Issued at(KST) : 2015.07.24. 22:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2015.07.24. 12:00 Analysis 24.9 131.0 970 35 126 240
(SW 200)
Strong Small W 14
2015.07.25. 00:00 Forecast 26.4 129.6 975 32 115 240
(WSW 200)
Normal Small NW 18 60
2015.07.25. 12:00 Forecast 28.6 128.2 980 29 104 220
(W 180)
Normal Small NNW 24 140
2015.07.26. 00:00 Forecast 31.4 127.6 985 27 97 200
(WNW 170)
Normal Small NNW 26 185
2015.07.26. 12:00 Forecast 34.1 128.6 990 24 86 180
(WNW 100)
Weak Small NNE 26 230
2015.07.27. 00:00 Forecast 36.5 130.9 996 20 72 130
(NW 70)
Weak Small NE 28 275
2015.07.27. 12:00 Forecast 37.9 134.7 1002 ENE 31

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 01C (Halola) Warning #58
Issued at 24/1500Z

cp0115 24a

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 24/0900Z

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 24/0900Z

01C_241132sair 24

WTPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA) WARNING NR 058
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
241200Z — NEAR 25.0N 131.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 131.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 26.2N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 28.3N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 31.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 17 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 34.3N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 38.3N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 130.6E.
TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Jul, 2015 12:00 GMT

Hurricane HALOLA (01C) currently located near 25.0 N 131.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Storm Tracker Map
Hurricane HALOLA: Storm-centered zoom at 24 hours lead (Image TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

CLICK IMAGE FOR MORE DETAIL

CLICK IMAGE FOR MORE DETAIL

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 241200

WTJP21 RJTD 241200
WARNING 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512) 965 HPA
AT 25.0N 131.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 26.2N 129.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 28.2N 128.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 33.9N 128.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 37.6N 134.0E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Marine Warnings: SEA AROUND AMAMI
23:35 JST 07/24/2015

KAGOSHIMA WX
242100JST ISSUED AT 242335JST

TYPHOON WARNING FOR SEA AROUND AMAMI
GALE WARNING FOR SEA OFF KAGOSHIMA

TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512) 965HPA AT 25.0N 131.1E MOVING WNW 07KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40NM
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120NM
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900JST AT 26.2N 129.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100JST AT 28.2N 128.4E WITH 70NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER

IN SEA AROUND AMAMI
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 30KT AND SE-LY TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH MAX 75KT FOR NEXT 18 HOURS

IN SEA OFF KAGOSHIMA
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MAX 35KT FOR NEXT 24 HOURS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100JST AT 33.9N 128.0E WITH 140NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 50KT

WARNING VALID 252100JST

Marine Warnings: SEA EAST OF OKINAWA
23:35 JST 07/24/2015

OKINAWA WX
242100JST ISSUED AT 242335JST

TYPHOON WARNING FOR SEA EAST OF OKINAWA
STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
GALE WARNING FOR SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA

TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512) 965HPA AT 25.0N 131.1E MOVING WNW 07KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40NM
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120NM
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900JST AT 26.2N 129.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100JST AT 28.2N 128.4E WITH 70NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER

IN SEA EAST OF OKINAWA
EASTERLY TO SE-LY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 70KT

IN SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
NW-LY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MAX 55KT FOR NEXT 18 HOURS

IN SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA
NW-LY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MAX 45KT FOR NEXT 18 HOURS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100JST AT 33.9N 128.0E WITH 140NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 50KT

WARNING VALID 252100JST

Other warnings at METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Tropical Depression Nangka (11W) 17/2100z position nr 38.1N 135.8E., moving NNE at 09 knots (JTWC) – Published 170715 2200z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Nangka (11W)

 Maximum significant wave height
at 171800z is 12 feet (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1511-00 17

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15071803

TD
Issued at 18:40 UTC, 17 July 2015

<Analyses at 17/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N37°00′(37.0°)
E136°00′(136.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wtpn33 pgtw 172100
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical depression 11w (Nangka) warning nr 058
downgraded from tropical storm 11w
02 active tropical cyclones in northwestpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
wind radii valid over open water only

warning position:
171800z — near 37.6n 135.2e
movement past six hours – 030 degrees at 09 kts
position accurate to within 060 nm
position based on center located by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds – 030 kt, gusts 040 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
repeat posit: 37.6n 135.2e

forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
180600z — 39.5n 137.7e
Max sustained winds – 030 kt, gusts 040 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
vector to 24 hr posit: 055 deg/ 13 kts

24 hrs, valid at:
181800z — 40.9n 140.6e
Max sustained winds – 025 kt, gusts 035 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over land
vector to 36 hr posit: 055 deg/ 13 kts

36 hrs, valid at:
190600z — 42.4n 143.5e
Max sustained winds – 020 kt, gusts 030 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
dissipated as a significant tropical cyclone over land

remarks:
172100z position near 38.1n 135.8e.
Tropical depression 11w (Nangka), located approximately 232 nm
west-northwest of yokota ab, has tracked north-northeastward at
09 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height
at 171800z is 12 feet. Next warnings at 180300z, 180900z, 181500z
and 182100z. Refer to tropical storm 01c (halola) warnings
(wtpn32 pgtw) for six-hourly updates.//
Nnnn

(Via @wunderground)

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Jul, 2015 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NANGKA (11W) currently located near 36.1 N 134.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

CLICK IMAGE FOR MORE DETAIL

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 171800 CCA
WARNING AND SUMMARY 171800.
WARNING VALID 181800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 50N 162E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 50N 162E TO 49N 167E 46N 169E.
WARM FRONT FROM 46N 169E TO 42N 171E 38N 172E.
COLD FRONT FROM 46N 169E TO 41N 164E 40N 158E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 40N 158E TO 40N 150E 40N 140E 40N 137E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 43N 141E
44N 145E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 35N 170E 39N 159E 36N
141E.
SUMMARY.
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 1511 NANGKA (1511) TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1002 HPA AT 37N 136E NE 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1002 HPA NEAR 22N 127E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1008 HPA AT 34N 129E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 54N 132E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 33N 158E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1512 HALOLA (1512) 996 HPA AT 18.3N 157.5E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 171800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 171800.
WARNING VALID 181800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 50N 162E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 50N 162E TO 49N 167E 46N 169E.
WARM FRONT FROM 46N 169E TO 42N 171E 38N 172E.
COLD FRONT FROM 46N 169E TO 41N 164E 40N 158E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 40N 158E TO 40N 150E 40N 140E 40N 137E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 43N 141E
44N 145E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 35N 170E 39N 159E 36N
141E.
SUMMARY.
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 1511 NANGKA (1511) TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1002 HPA AT 37N 136E NE 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1002 HPA NEAR 22N 127E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1008 HPA AT 34N 129E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 54N 132E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 33N 158E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1512 HALOLA (1512) 996 HPA AT 18.3N 157.5E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Korea/ China: Severe Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (09W) 12/1500Z POSITION nr 37.5N 125.1E, moving N/NNE 20 knots (JTWC) – Updated 120715 1500z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (09W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1509-00 c12

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15071215 c12

STS 1509 (CHAN-HOM)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 12 July 2015

<Analyses at 12/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N36°35′(36.6°)
E125°00′(125.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E600km(325NM)
W390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 13/00 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N39°40′(39.7°)
E127°00′(127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 13/12 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N42°10′(42.2°)
E130°30′(130.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 09W (Chan-hom) Warning #49
Issued at 12/1500Z

wp0915 c12

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 11/2100Z

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 11/2100Z

09W_112332sams c12

WTPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 049
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121200Z — NEAR 36.8N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 015 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.8N 124.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 39.6N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 40.9N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 37.5N 125.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Jul, 2015 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM (09W) currently located near 36.8 N 124.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    P’yongyang (39.0 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sariwon (38.5 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kanggye (41.0 N, 126.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Hamhung (39.9 N, 127.6 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Sinuiju (40.1 N, 124.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201509W_0 c12

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

seawarn c12

CLICK IMAGE FOR MORE DETAIL

WTJP21 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509) 980 HPA
AT 36.6N 125.0E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 39.7N 127.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 42.2N 130.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 120600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED EASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED
BY 15N 176E 15N 180E 13N 180E 13N 176E 15N 176E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED WESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED
BY 13N 176E 13N 180E 11N 180E 11N 176E 13N 176E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 32N 136E 33N 136E
35N 137E 36N 143E 43N 146E 56N 163E 60N 164E 60N 180E 40N 180E 36N
160E 32N 142E 32N 136E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 49N 132E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 47N 153E SE 15 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 57N 146E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1511 NANGKA (1511) 950 HPA AT 18.6N 137.6E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509) 975 HPA AT 34.9N 124.2E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Typhoon Dolphin 07W threatens Iwo Jima (Iwo To) – 180515 1517z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Dolphin (1507, 07W)

(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 33
FEET. – JTWC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

1507-00 d18

1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TY 1507 (DOLPHIN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 18 May 2015

<Analyses at 18/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°10′(22.2°)
E138°55′(138.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE390km(210NM)
SW280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 19/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°40′(23.7°)
E139°25′(139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 19/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°05′(25.1°)
E141°00′(141.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 20/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°35′(31.6°)
E148°00′(148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 40km/h(22kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)
<Forecast for 21/12 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44°25′(44.4°)
E165°30′(165.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 85km/h(47kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 600km(325NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Super Typhoon 07W (Dolphin) Warning #40
Issued at 16/1500Z

wp0715 d18

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/07W_181132sair.jpg

WTPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
181200Z — NEAR 22.5N 138.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 015 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 138.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 23.9N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 25.8N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 28.7N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 32 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 33.3N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 138.8E.
TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM SOUTHWEST OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 33
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 May, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon DOLPHIN (07W) currently located near 14.0 N 144.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Guam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the Northern Mariana Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hagatna (13.5 N, 144.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201507W d18

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 181200

WTJP22 RJTD 181200
WARNING 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1507 DOLPHIN (1507) 955 HPA
AT 22.2N 138.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 23.7N 139.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 25.1N 141.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 31.6N 148.0E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 44.4N 165.5E WITH 325 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 181200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 984 HPA
AT 48N 176E SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 48N 176E TO 48N 180E 46N 175W.
WARM FRONT FROM 46N 175W TO 43N 172W 40N 170W.
COLD FRONT FROM 46N 175W TO 41N 177W 38N 180E 35N 175E 32N 166E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N 166E TO 31N 158E 32N 148E 33N 137E 35N 132E
27N 120E 25N 112E 24N 109E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
400 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 35N 132E WESTERN JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 28N 130E 31N 130E
35N 141E 42N 142E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 33N 180E 29N 165E 28N
149E 28N 130E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 39N 129E ENE 15 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 48N 146E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 34N 156E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 26N 163E EAST 10 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1507 DOLPHIN (1507) 955 HPA AT 22.2N 138.9E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines: Typhoon NOUL (06W)/ DODONG further weakened and accelerated as it moves Northeastward (PAGASA) – 110515 1245z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon NOUL SIX (06W)/ DODONG in PH

Typhoon “#DodongPH” has further weakened and accelerated as it moves Northeastward (PAGASA)

(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 38 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1506-00 N11

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Analysis Chart (PDF)

TY 1506 (NOUL)
Issued at 10:45 UTC, 11 May 2015

Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°20′(22.3°)
E122°50′(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL80km(45NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°25′(22.4°)
E122°55′(122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL80km(45NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°35′(23.6°)
E124°00′(124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area ALL140km(75NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°05′(26.1°)
E126°50′(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55km/h(29kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL180km(95NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°20′(28.3°)
E129°50′(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 65km/h(34kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N30°30′(30.5°)
E133°35′(133.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 70km/h(38kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 240km(130NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

PHILIPPINES

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

dodong_15051106

5:00 p.m. Weather Bulletin in pdf 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 06W (Noul) Warning #34
Issued at 11/0900Z

wp0615 n11

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/06W_110532sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 034
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
110600Z — NEAR 21.8N 122.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 025 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 122.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 25.2N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 36 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 29.6N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 41 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 34.6N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 43 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 40.2N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 123.5E.
TYPHOON 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z,
120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 May, 2015 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NOUL (06W) currently located near 21.8 N 122.6 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Typhoon Noul Nears Southern Japan Monday Near Landfall Outlook (WestPacWx)

Typhoon Noul continues to track North away from the Philippines and towards Japan this Monday evening setting the stage for a early season typhoon in the southern Japanese islands including the island of Okinawa.  Winds will max out there during the morning hours as the storm races by being pulled quickly north east by a passing cold front. At this time JMA is warning of winds gusting up to 180kph in Okinawa, …

Read More

Other Reports

Typhoon Dodong (Noul) slammed into the northern tip of the Philippines May 10, prompting almost 3,000 people in Northern Luzon to flee their homes and knocking out power in Cagayan. It has since weakened, and the state weather bureau said the typhoon will be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Tuesday, May 12. It’s expected to move north towards Japan, the government weather station said.

Read the full story on Rappler.

Read the full story on evacuation on Rappler.

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 110900

WTJP31 RJTD 110900
WARNING 110900.
WARNING VALID 120900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1506 NOUL (1506) 955 HPA
AT 22.0N 122.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 26.1N 126.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 30.5N 133.6E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 110600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 110600.
WARNING VALID 120600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 40N 167E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 40N 167E TO 39N 170E 38N 172E.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 172E TO 36N 174E 33N 176E.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 172E TO 31N 165E 25N 153E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
500 MILES ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER LOW 994 HPA AT 38N 160E
MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 36N 123E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 36N 123E TO 34N 125E 31N 128E.
COLD FRONT FROM 36N 123E TO 30N 120E 26N 115E 25N 111E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 43N 146E 47N 152E
55N 162E 53N 180E 30N 180E 30N 170E 37N 160E 40N 150E 43N 146E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 47N 146E ESE 20 KT.
LOW 998 HPA AT 57N 151E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 35N 142E ESE 20 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1506 NOUL (1506) 950 HPA AT 21.6N 122.3E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1507 DOLPHIN (1507) 998 HPA AT 09.8N 160.0E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

GALE WARNING # 08 (FINAL)

FOR: Strong to gale force winds associated with Typhoon “DODONG”.
Issued at: 5:00 pm today, 11 May 2015
Strong to gale force winds has weakened.

SEABOARDS

WEATHER

WIND FORCE
(KPH / KNOTS)

SEA CONDITION

WAVE HEIGHT (meters)

THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF NORTHERN LUZON
(Isabela and Eastern Coast of Cagayan)

Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms

(35– 59) /(19 – 32)

Moderate to rough

2.1 to 4.0

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are alerted against moderate to rough seas.

This is the final gale warning.

PAGASA

Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Yap/ Fais/ Ulithi/ Philippines/ Pacific Ocean: Super Typhoon Maysak (04W) / Chedeng 311500Z POSITION near 10.4N 139.3E, moving W at 14 knots (JTWC) – 310315 1615z (GMT/UTC)

Super Typhoon Maysak (04W)/ Chedeng (in Philippines)

YAP in the Caroline Islands & Philippines beware!

(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 40 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1504-00 M31

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TY 1504 (MAYSAK)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 31 March 2015

<Analyses at 31/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Violent
Center position N10°10′(10.2°)
E139°55′(139.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 905hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N390km(210NM)
S330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N10°40′(10.7°)
E137°35′(137.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 900hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 01/12 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N11°20′(11.3°)
E135°55′(135.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 895hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(120kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(170kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 02/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°40′(12.7°)
E133°35′(133.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°55′(13.9°)
E130°40′(130.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

Philippines

Pagasa LogoPAGASA-DOST Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

TC Update: as of 10PM today 31 March 2015 (PhT), Typhoon w/ International Name “MAYSAK” was located at 1,530 km East of Surigao City (10.2°N, 139.4°E). Maximum sustained winds of 205kph near the center and gustiness of up to 240kph. It is forecast to move West Northwest at 20kph

11066785_778410438935534_8001588373223099484_n

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wp0415 M31

04W_311132sair

WTPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
311200Z — NEAR 10.2N 139.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 139.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 10.9N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 11.5N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z — 12.2N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 13.0N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 14.2N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 15.0N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 15.7N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 139.3E.
SUPER TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 31 Mar, 2015 12:00 GMT

Super Typhoon MAYSAK (04W) currently located near 10.2 N 139.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yap (9.5 N, 138.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
    Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
    Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image TSR)

(Image TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Philippines – As of today, there is no Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping issued – Dost pagasa

TYPHOON WARNING

WTJP31 RJTD 311500
WARNING 311500.
WARNING VALID 011500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1504 MAYSAK (1504) 905 HPA
AT 10.3N 139.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 10.8N 137.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 11.3N 135.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
895 HPA, MAX WINDS 120 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Further warnings here:

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines/ Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm BAVI / BETTY(1503) 170600Z nr 15.3N 135.4E, moving WNW at 13 knots (JMA) – Updated 170315 0820z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Bavi (1503)(03W)/ “BETTY” in Philippines

…BAVI IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND COULD BE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE TONIGHT….NWS GUAM

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

wp201503_sat_anim BAVI 17

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1503-00 BAVI 17

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15031709

TS 1503 (BAVI)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 17 March 2015

<Analyses at 17/06 UTC>
Scale –
Intensity –
Center position N15°20′(15.3°)
E135°25′(135.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW280km(150NM)
SE170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 17/18 UTC>
Intensity –
Center position of probability circle N15°35′(15.6°)
E133°40′(133.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 18/06 UTC>
Intensity –
Center position of probability circle N16°05′(16.1°)
E131°55′(131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 19/06 UTC>
Intensity –
TD
Center position of probability circle N16°30′(16.5°)
E129°05′(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)

PAGASA Track as of 8 a.m., 17 March 2015 Satellite Image 
betty 15031700 bettysat 15031700

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER ONE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT: TROPICAL STORM “BETTY” (BAVI)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Tuesday, 17 March 2015

The Tropical Storm {BAVI} east of Bicol Region will enter The Philippine Area Of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon and will be named “BETTY”.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.)
1,530 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Coordinates: 15.4°N, 136.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph.
Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 20 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook: 24 hour (Tomorrow morning):
1,030 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
48 hour (Thursday morning):
640 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
72 hour (Friday morning):
270 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
No Public Storm Warning Signal

Estimated rainfall amount is from 2.5 – 7.5 mm per hour (light – moderate) within the 500 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.

The Tropical Storm is expected to weaken into a Tropical Depression within the next 24-36 hours.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11PM today.

 11  a.m. Weather Bulletin in pdf 

National Weather Service Forecast OfficeWFO Guam

errorTrack1 BAVI 17
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 170235
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
200 PM CHST TUE MAR 17 2015

…TROPICAL STORM BAVI WEAKENING…

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.3N 135.8E

ABOUT 430 MILES NORTH OF YAP
ABOUT 660 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 630 MILES WEST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 610 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST-NORTHWEST…290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
AT 100 PM CHST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.8 EAST…MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. BAVI IS EXPECTED TO CURVE WESTWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 40 MPH. SATELLITE DATA
INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES…MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BAVI IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND COULD BE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

ZIOBRO

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wp0315 BAVI 17

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03W_162332sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 170300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
170000Z — NEAR 15.2N 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 136.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 15.6N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 15.8N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 16.0N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 16.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 15.9N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 135.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 170600

WTJP21 RJTD 170600
WARNING 170600.
WARNING VALID 180600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1503 BAVI (1503) 998 HPA
AT 15.3N 135.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 15.6N 133.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 16.1N 131.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 16.5N 129.1E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WTPH RPMM 170000
TTT GALE WARNING 01

AT 0000 17 MARCH TROPICAL STORM [BAVI] {1503} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE SIX POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 180000 ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 190000 ONE SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ONE EAST AND AT 200000 ONE SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

Further warnings here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm 1502/ 02W HIGOS 072100Z POSITION nr 11.8N 157.6E, moving N at 6 knots (JTWC) – Published 070215 2150z

Tropical Storm HIGOS (1502, 02W)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1502

TS 1502 (HIGOS)
Issued at 18:55 UTC, 7 February 2015

<Analyses at 07/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N11°25′(11.4°)
E157°25′(157.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N12°05′(12.1°)
E156°30′(156.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N12°40′(12.7°)
E154°50′(154.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N13°35′(13.6°)
E152°55′(152.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

 Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0215.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/02W_071732sair.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071800Z — NEAR 11.6N 157.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 157.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 12.4N 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 12.9N 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 13.4N 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 14.3N 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 15.8N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 16.7N 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 157.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//
NNNN

Other Reports

NASA’s Hurricane Web Page

070215 2003Z

NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN – Tropical depression Higos or 02W has formed about 400 nautical miles east-northeast of Chuuk, near 10.9 north and 157.6 east. It has maximum sustained winds near 30 knots (34.5 mph/55.5 kph) and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm with max. winds to 60 knots.
Higos is moving north-northwest and is expected to curve northeast and become extra-tropical. It is not expected to directly affect any islands in the vicinity, however, it will stir up rough seas.
Today, Feb. 7 at 13:46 UTC (8:36 a.m. EST) NASA-JAXA’s GPM satellite data shows fragmented thunderstorm bands on the eastern side of the storm wrapping into the center.

NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN - Tropical depression Higos or 02W has formed about 400 nautical miles east-northeast of Chuuk, near 10.9 north and 157.6 east. It has maximum sustained winds near 30 knots (34.5 mph/55.5 kph) and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm with max. winds to 60 knots. 
   Higos is moving north-northwest and is expected to curve northeast and become extra-tropical. It is not expected to directly affect any islands in the vicinity, however, it will stir up rough seas. 
  Today, Feb. 7 at 13:46 UTC (8:36 a.m. EST) NASA-JAXA's GPM satellite data shows fragmented thunderstorm bands on the eastern side of the storm wrapping into the center.

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

ZCZC 538
WTPQ50 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1502 HIGOS (1502) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 11.4N 157.4E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 081800UTC 12.1N 156.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 091800UTC 12.7N 154.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 101800UTC 13.6N 152.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 111800UTC 15.0N 151.6E 240NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
120HF 121800UTC 16.0N 149.9E 300NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY =
NNNN

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1502 HIGOS (1502) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1000 HPA
AT 11.4N 157.4E MARSHALLS MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 12.1N 156.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 12.7N 154.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 13.6N 152.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

More warnings here:

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines: 19/1000 (PhT) LOW (LPA) formerly “#Mekkhala/ #Amang” 16.8˚N, 122.7˚E – PAGASA – Updated 190115 0930z (GMT/UTC)

LOW PRESSURE AREA formerly 01W Mekkhala/ Amang

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Mekkhala_sat_anim

Japan Meteorological agency

1501-00 19th

15011915 19th

TD
Issued at 18:40 UTC, 18 January 2015

<Analyses at 18/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N16°00′(16.0°)
E122°00′(122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa

PAGASA-DOST Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

FOR: LOW PRESSURE AREA (FORMERLY “AMANG”)
ISSUED AT: 10:30 AM, 19 JANUARY 2015

At 10:00 am today, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) formerly “AMANG” was estimated based on all available data at 85 km Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora (16.8˚N, 122.7˚E). This weather system is expected to bring cloudy skies with light to moderate rains over the regions of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos.

Meanwhile, fisher folk and other small seacrafts are advised not venture out into the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon and the Eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon.

The next update will be incorporated in the 24-hour public weather forecast to be issued at 5:00 pm today while the next weather advisory will be issued at 11:00 am tomorrow.

For more information and queries, please call at telephone numbers 927-1335 and 927-2877 or log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph.

10410341_742438229199422_5565964766380787603_n

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wp0115 19th

 https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/01W_181732sair.jpg
WTPN31 PGTW 182100 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (MEKKHALA) WARNING NR 022A AMENDED AND
RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
181800Z — NEAR 15.7N 123.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 123.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 16.9N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 17.9N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 123.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (MEKKHALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BAGUIO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS
BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS IT WAS STRIPPED OF DEEP CONVECTION BY STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
ANIMATION AIDED BY A COMPOSITE DOPPLER RADAR LOOP FROM PAGASA WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FROM THE 181500Z PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE. TD
MEKKHALA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12 DUE TO THE HIGH VWS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: RELOCATED INITIAL
AND FORECAST POSITIONS AFTER ANALYSIS OF UPDATED AND MORE ACCURATE
SATELLITE DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z
IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

TSR logoTropical Storm Risk (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 18 Jan, 2015 12:00 GMT

Tropical Depression MEKKHALA (01W) currently located near 15.1 N 121.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Find warnings here:

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South Indian Ocean: Severe Tropical Cyclone 04S Kate 280900Z POSITION near 13.8S 92.3E, moving SW at 04 Knots (JTWC) – Updated 281214 0955z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 04S Kate

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta

IDJ21030
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

BULETIN INFORMASI SIKLON TROPIS

Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 08:08 WIB 28/12/2014

Siklon Tropis KATE

Kondisi tanggal 28/12/2014 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 13.1LS, 92.8BT (sekitar 1470 km sebelah barat daya Bengkulu)
Arah Gerak : barat, kecepatan 2 knots (4 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 80 knots (150 km/jam)

Prediksi 24 jam, tanggal 29/12/2014 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 14.7LS, 92.2BT (sekitar 1640 km sebelah barat daya Bengkulu)
Arah Gerak : Selatan barat daya, kecepatan 4 knots (8 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 80 knots (150 km/jam)

Prediksi 48 jam, tanggal 30/12/2014 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 17.0LS, 90.9BT
Arah Gerak : Selatan barat daya, kecepatan 5 knots (10 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 60 knots (110 km/jam)

Prediksi 72 jam, tanggal 31/12/2014 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 19.4LS, 87.9BT
Arah Gerak : Barat daya, kecepatan 7 knots (12 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 50 knots (95 km/jam)

DAMPAK TERHADAP CUACA DI INDONESIA :
Siklon tropis KATE memberikan dampak terhadap kondisi cuaca di wilayah Indonesia berupa :
– Gelombang dengan ketinggian 2 – 3 meter berpeluang terjadi di Perairan Bengkulu hingga barat Lampung, Selat Sunda bagian selatan, Perairan selatan Banten, dan Samudera Hindia selatan Banten hingga Jawa Tengah.
– Gelombang dengan ketinggian lebih dari 3 meter berpeluang terjadi di Samudera Hindia barat Sumatera.

IDJ21030
Meteorology and Geophysics
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (the Centre) in Jakarta

INFORMATION BULLETIN TROPICAL CYCLONE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING issued by CENTRE JAKARTA
In: 8:08 PM 12/28/2014

Tropical Cyclone KATE

Conditions dated 28.12.2014 07:00 pm:
Position: 13.1LS, 92.8BT (about 1470 km southwest of Bengkulu)
Motion direction: west, the speed of 2 knots (4 km / h) moving away from the region of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed: 80 knots (150 km / h)

Prediction 24 hours, date 12/29/2014 07:00 pm:
Position: 14.7LS, 92.2BT (about 1640 km southwest of Bengkulu)
Motion direction: South-west, the speed of 4 knots (8 km / h) moving away from the region of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed: 80 knots (150 km / h)

Prediction 48 hours, date 12/30/2014 07:00 pm:
Position: 17.0LS, 90.9BT
Motion direction: South-west, the speed of 5 knots (10 km / h) moving away from the region of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed: 60 knots (110 km / h)

Prediction 72 hours, date 12/31/2014 07:00 pm:
Position: 19.4LS, 87.9BT
Direction Motion: Southwestern, speed 7 knots (12 km / h) moving away from the territory of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed: 50 knots (95 km / h)

IMPACT ON THE WEATHER IN INDONESIA:
KATE tropical cyclone impact on the weather conditions in parts of Indonesia such as:
– A wave with a height of 2-3 meters likely to occur in the waters west of Bengkulu to Lampung, southern Sunda Strait, southern waters of Banten, and the Indian Ocean to the south Banten Central Java.
– A wave with a height of more than 3 meters likely to occur in the Indian Ocean west of Sumatra.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
280600Z — NEAR 13.6S 92.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 92.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z — 14.3S 92.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 15.2S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 16.3S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 17.5S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 20.0S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 92.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A PULSATING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT HAS ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASED IN SIZE AND SYMMETRY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND CONTINUES
TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280542Z TRMM
MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED SEVERAL SMALL TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS WRAPPING
INTO AN EYE FEATURE ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED IN SIZE. A 280230Z ASCAT PASS WAS
UTILIZED TO ADJUST THE WIND FIELD OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS
SATELLITE DATA, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
RECENT MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 90 KNOTS
WHICH IS BASED ON AN EVALUATION OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AS THE LAST INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS RE-EVALUATED AND
INCREASED UP TO 90 KNOTS DUE TO THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. TC KATE
IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG A WEAK WESTERN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA TOWARD A BREAK IN THE
STR CAUSED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC KATE IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH RE-ORIENTS DUE TO PERSISTENT
TROUGHING POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36, TC 04S SHOULD TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO A LOW-LEVEL STR TO THE
SOUTH, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AFTER
TAU 72. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO MARGINAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND DECEASING OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 36 AND
THEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO COOLER SSTS (LESS THAN 25C) AND INCREASING
VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
SLIGHT SPREAD AS EGRR AND COAMPS-TC REMAIN THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW OVERALL
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE TROUGH
INTERACTION WITH THE STR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA10 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING_PERTH / 0642

WTAU05 APRF 280642
IDW23100
40:3:2:24:14S093E999:11:00
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0642UTC 28 DECEMBER 2014

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Kate was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal eight south (13.8S)
longitude ninety two decimal five east (92.5E)
Recent movement : southwest at 3 knots
Maximum winds : 80 knots
Central pressure: 971 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 80 knots near the centre easing to 75 knots by 0600 UTC 29
December.

Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with high to very high
seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 80 nautical miles of centre with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 28 December: Within 45 nautical miles of 14.6 south 92.2 east
Central pressure 965 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 29 December: Within 70 nautical miles of 15.7 south 91.8 east
Central pressure 970 hPa.
Winds to 75 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 28 December 2014.

WEATHER PERTH

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines: Tropical Storm HAGUPIT 1422 22W 082100Z POSITION nr 14.0N 120.4E, moving WNW 05 knots(JTWC) – Updated – 081214 2130z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL STORM 1422 (HAGUPIT) – JMA

(Now lower than CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) – JTWC

Philippines beware!!

(Warning: Images not updating despite being correct on edit, click on most images to go to source. Check comments for interim updates,)

Japan Meteorological agency

1422

TS 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 8 December 2014

<Analyses at 08/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N13°50′(13.8°)
E120°50′(120.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 09/06 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N14°05′(14.1°)
E119°00′(119.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N14°05′(14.1°)
E116°55′(116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N13°30′(13.5°)
E112°30′(112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N11°40′(11.7°)
E108°10′(108.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2214.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/22W_081732sair.jpg

 

WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 14.0N 120.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 120.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 14.2N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 14.1N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 13.9N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 13.5N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 12.2N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 10.1N 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 120.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z,
090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logo

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Dec, 201418:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HAGUPIT (22W) currently located near 14.0 N 120.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com

Storm Tracker Map

Western Pacific Weather

Find A Shelter in Your Area, Typhoon Hagupit Interactive Map (link)

Tropical Storm Hagupit (Ruby) in Southern Luzon | Afternoon Video Update

Tropical Storm Hagupit (Bagyong Ruby) is now moving near the province of Batangas and could make landfall near the town of Laiya according to PAGASA. While Signal #3 warnings have been lowered by the agency, Signal #2 is still in effect in many areas, including Metro Manila. Bands of heavy rains and strong winds will

Read More…

Tropical Storm 22W HAGUPIT (Ruby) continues its trek across the Philippines. Manila braces for impact.

Monday morning in the WPAC region and tropical storm HAGUPIT, named “Ruby” by the Philippine’s MET service, PAGASA, continues to weaken and work its way to the NW across the Philippine archipelago this morning. The latest information at 08/03z from the JTWC is as follows: Position:              13.4N, 122.4E Location:             126 nm (233km) SE of Manila, Philippines

Read More…

Severe Tropical Storm Hagupit wobbling over the Philippines

Hagupit continues to track west across the Philippines Monday morning bringing wide spread heavy rainfall to southern Luzon and Northern Visayas.  At least two deaths have been officially reported at the time of this update. We have also seen unconfirmed reports in social media but we will wait for casualty reports from the NDRRMC here.

Read More…

Typhoon Hagupit / Rudy Live Webcast

Feel free to ask questions or comments in this live update prior to landfall of Typhoon Hagupit..

Below are some useful “Stay Alive” tips if you wanna ride out a Typhoon:

1. Pruning of large and tall trees will make you safe from damage, reinforce vulnerable ones to the ground if necessary. Keep them away from power lines;

2. Make sure roofing are sturdy to withstand powerful wind and rain. Ensure doors and windows are water tight;

3. Clear your property from potentially dangerous debris becoming airborne during high wind;

4. Free water ways from debris to avoid backing up flood waters towards river estuaries in case of torrential rains associated with the system;

5. Stay clear from the immediate coasts and low-lying areas to avoid being caught up by raging waters. Watchout for landslips if you live near steep elevations;

6. Secure food stocks, adequate potable water supply and medications. Do not forget to safely shelter dogs and other beloved animal companion indoor. Be humane enough. You don’t wanna keep them cold outside in a storm;

7. Keep emergency numbers at hand and orient family members what to do before, during and after the storm. Charge handheld radios, cellular phones and extra battery before electricity is cut from the grid;

8. Listen to emergency broadcast via battery-powered portable radio. Lights would definitely go out during the storm, so you wanna make sure you got emergency lights and torch lights in handy;

9. Keep calm and pray for the Typhoon to come to past safely in your vicinity. We’ll ride out the storm safely.

NEWS

Philippine capital braces for storm, as Hagupit leaves 27 dead

Typhoon death toll rises after storm tears through central islands flattening homes and toppling trees

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 081800

WTJP21 RJTD 081800
WARNING 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1422 HAGUPIT (1422) 992 HPA
AT 13.8N 120.8E PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 14.1N 119.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 14.1N 116.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 13.5N 112.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 11.7N 108.2E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines: Typhoon HAGUPIT 1422 22W 050900Z POSITION 12.0N 128.7E, moving W at 07kt (JMA) – Updated – 051214 1232z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon HAGUPIT 1422 22W

Updated here:

https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/12/06/philippines-typhoon-hagupit-1422-22w-060900z-position-12-0n-126-3e-moving-w-at-07kt-jma-updated-061214-1126z-gmtutc/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

YAP/ Palau/ Philippines: Tropical Storm HAGUPIT 1422 22W 020900Z 6.2N 144.2E, moving W at 20kt (JMA) – Published – 021214 1247z (GMT/UTC)

Philippines: Super Typhoon HAGUPIT 1422 22W 041500Z POSITION 11.1N 130.9E, moving WNW at 12kt (JTWC) – Updated – 041214 1415z (GMT/UTC)

More here; http://wp.me/p2k2mU-3u2

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South China Sea/ Vietnam: Severe Tropical Storm SINLAKU (1421/21W) 291500Z 13.5N 109.7E, moving WNW at 10 knots (RSMC Tokyo) – Published 1756z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm SINLAKU (21W)

(Warning: Images are not updating despite being updated correctly – click on most images to visit image source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1421

STS 1421 (SINLAKU)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 29 November 2014

<Analyses at 29/15 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N13°30′(13.5°)
E109°40′(109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 30/03 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N14°00′(14.0°)
E107°20′(107.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 30/15 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N13°55′(13.9°)
E105°00′(105.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2114.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/21W_291132sair.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
291200Z — NEAR 13.3N 110.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 110.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 13.7N 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 13.7N 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 109.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (SINLAKU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z,
300300Z AND 300900Z.//
NNNN

TSR logo

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Nov, 2014 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm SINLAKU (21W) currently located near 13.3 N 110.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP31 RJTD 291500
WARNING 291500.
WARNING VALID 301500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1421 SINLAKU (1421) 990 HPA
AT 13.5N 109.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 14.0N 107.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 13.9N 105.0E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are other messages here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.