# Severe Tropical Storm LAN (25W)

## Lan expected to become a Major Typhoon

### MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 18 FEET – JTWC

### Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

**Tropical Storm 25W (Lan) Warning #09 **

**Issued at 17/1500Z**

WTPN32 PGTW 171500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. **TROPICAL STORM 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 009**

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

—

WARNING POSITION:

171200Z — NEAR 10.2N 132.4E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 132.4E

—

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

180000Z — 11.7N 132.5E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS

—

24 HRS, VALID AT:

181200Z — 13.7N 132.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS

—

36 HRS, VALID AT:

190000Z — 15.4N 131.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS

—

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

191200Z — 17.0N 130.5E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS

—

72 HRS, VALID AT:

201200Z — 19.9N 130.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

315 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

335 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS

—

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

—

96 HRS, VALID AT:

211200Z — 24.2N 131.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

340 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

425 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS

—

120 HRS, VALID AT:

221200Z — 29.7N 133.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 355 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

385 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

—

REMARKS:

**171500Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 132.4E.**

TROPICAL STORM 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 186 NM NORTHWEST

OF KAYANGEL, HAS TRACKED **NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS** OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS.

**MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 18 FEET**. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//

NNNN

### STS 1721 (Lan)

Issued at 12:45 UTC, 17 October 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 17 October> | |

Scale | – |

Intensity | – |

Center position | N10°40′ (10.7°) |

E131°50′ (131.8°) | |

Direction and speed of movement | NNE Slow |

Central pressure | 980 hPa |

Maximum wind speed near center | 30 m/s (55 kt) |

Maximum wind gust speed | 40 m/s (80 kt) |

≥ 50 kt wind area | ALL 70 km (40 NM) |

≥ 30 kt wind area | S 440 km (240 NM) |

N 330 km (180 NM) | |

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 18 October> | |

Intensity | – |

Center position of probability circle | N12°00′ (12.0°) |

E132°25′ (132.4°) | |

Direction and speed of movement | NNE 15 km/h (7 kt) |

Central pressure | 975 hPa |

Maximum wind speed near center | 30 m/s (60 kt) |

Maximum wind gust speed | 45 m/s (85 kt) |

Radius of probability circle | 60 km (30 NM) |

Storm warning area | ALL 140 km (75 NM) |

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 October> | |

Intensity | Strong |

Center position of probability circle | N14°05′ (14.1°) |

E132°20′ (132.3°) | |

Direction and speed of movement | N 20 km/h (11 kt) |

Central pressure | 965 hPa |

Maximum wind speed near center | 35 m/s (70 kt) |

Maximum wind gust speed | 50 m/s (100 kt) |

Radius of probability circle | 150 km (80 NM) |

Storm warning area | ALL 260 km (140 NM) |

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 19 October> | |

Intensity | Very strong |

Center position of probability circle | N17°20′ (17.3°) |

E130°55′ (130.9°) | |

Direction and speed of movement | NNW 15 km/h (9 kt) |

Central pressure | 935 hPa |

Maximum wind speed near center | 45 m/s (90 kt) |

Maximum wind gust speed | 65 m/s (130 kt) |

Radius of probability circle | 180 km (95 NM) |

Storm warning area | ALL 350 km (190 NM) |

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 20 October> | |

Intensity | Very strong |

Center position of probability circle | N20°20′ (20.3°) |

E130°50′ (130.8°) | |

Direction and speed of movement | N 15 km/h (8 kt) |

Central pressure | 920 hPa |

Maximum wind speed near center | 50 m/s (100 kt) |

Maximum wind gust speed | 70 m/s (140 kt) |

Radius of probability circle | 310 km (170 NM) |

Storm warning area | ALL 540 km (290 NM) |

### NOAA

### TROPICAL STORM (TSR)

### NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Oct, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm LAN is currently located near 10.2 N 132.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). LAN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

**Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)**

** Japan**

** probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 120 hours**

** probability for TS is 65% in about 120 hours**

** Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)**

** Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)**

** probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours**

** probability for TS is 80% in about 96 hours**

** Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)**

** probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours**

** probability for TS is 60% in about 120 hours**

** Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)**

** probability for TS is 55% in about 120 hours**

** Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)**

** probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours**

** probability for TS is 55% in about 120 hours**

** Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)**

** probability for TS is 55% in about 120 hours**

** Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)**

** probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours**

** probability for TS is 55% in about 120 hours**

** Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)**

** probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours**

** probability for TS is 55% in about 120 hours**

** Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)**

** South Korea**

** probability for TS is 40% in about 120 hours**

** Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)**

** Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)**

** probability for TS is 50% in about 120 hours**

** Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)**

** probability for TS is 50% in about 120 hours**

** Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)**

** probability for TS is 50% in about 120 hours**

** Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)**

** probability for TS is 45% in about 120 hours**

** Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)**

** probability for TS is 40% in about 120 hours**

** Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)**

** probability for TS is 40% in about 120 hours**

** Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)**

** probability for TS is 40% in about 120 hours**

** Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)**

** probability for TS is 35% in about 120 hours**

** Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)**

** probability for TS is 35% in about 120 hours**

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

## Other

(*Above 2 images: @wunderground)*

## MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP22 RJTD 171200

WARNING 171200.

WARNING VALID 181200.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

**TYPHOON WARNING.**

**SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1721 LAN (1721) 980 HPA**

AT 10.7N 131.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 12.0N 132.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 14.1N 132.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 17.3N 130.9E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 20.3N 130.8E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

**Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.**