Severe Tropical Storm DAMREY 28W
(RAMIL in PH)
Damrey expected to become a Typhoon equal to a Category 1 Hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale prior to landfall in Vietnam
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 16 FEET – JTWC
STS 1723 (Damrey)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 2 November 2017
<Analysis at 21 UTC, 2 November>  
Scale  – 
Intensity  – 
Center position  N13°00′ (13.0°) 
E114°25′ (114.4°)  
Direction and speed of movement  W 20 km/h (11 kt) 
Central pressure  985 hPa 
Maximum wind speed near center  30 m/s (55 kt) 
Maximum wind gust speed  40 m/s (80 kt) 
≥ 50 kt wind area  ALL 70 km (40 NM) 
≥ 30 kt wind area  NW 440 km (240 NM) 
SE 330 km (180 NM)  
Intensity  – 
Center position of probability circle  N12°30′ (12.5°) 
E112°00′ (112.0°)  
Direction and speed of movement  W 20 km/h (12 kt) 
Central pressure  980 hPa 
Maximum wind speed near center  30 m/s (60 kt) 
Maximum wind gust speed  45 m/s (85 kt) 
Radius of probability circle  70 km (40 NM) 
Storm warning area  ALL 150 km (80 NM) 
Intensity  Strong 
Center position of probability circle  N12°25′ (12.4°) 
E109°40′ (109.7°)  
Direction and speed of movement  W 20 km/h (11 kt) 
Central pressure  975 hPa 
Maximum wind speed near center  35 m/s (65 kt) 
Maximum wind gust speed  50 m/s (95 kt) 
Radius of probability circle  110 km (60 NM) 
Storm warning area  ALL 190 km (100 NM) 
Intensity  – 
TD  
Center position of probability circle  N12°35′ (12.6°) 
E105°10′ (105.2°)  
Direction and speed of movement  W 20 km/h (12 kt) 
Central pressure  1004 hPa 
Radius of probability circle  200 km (110 NM) 
HIMAWARI Imagery
NCHMF VIETNAM
TROPICAL STORM WARNING  





Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Tropical Storm 28W (Damrey) Warning #05
Issued at 02/2100Z
WTPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 28W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONEMINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z — NEAR 12.7N 114.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 114.3E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 12.4N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z — 12.1N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 12.0N 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 12.0N 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z — 11.5N 100.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
—
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 113.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 28W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM EAST
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.
//
NNNN
TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)
NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Nov, 2017 18:00 GMT
Tropical Storm DAMREY is currently located near 12.7 N 114.3 E with maximum 1min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). DAMREY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Cambodia
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Nha Trang (12.2 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Phan Rang (11.6 N, 109.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Kon Tum (14.3 N, 108.0 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Laos
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Thailand
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kracheh (12.5 N, 106.0 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Phan Thiet (10.9 N, 108.1 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Phnom Penh (11.6 N, 104.8 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Ho Chi Minh City (10.8 N, 106.7 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Siemreab (13.4 N, 103.9 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
Other
(Image: DoctorAdvice4u)
MARITIME/SHIPPING
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 022100
WTJP31 RJTD 022100
WARNING 022100.
WARNING VALID 032100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1723 DAMREY (1723) 985 HPA
AT 13.0N 114.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 12.5N 112.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 032100UTC AT 12.4N 109.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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