Typhoon Dolphin (1507, 07W)
(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 33
FEET. – JTWC
(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast
(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km
TY 1507 (DOLPHIN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 18 May 2015
| <Analyses at 18/12 UTC> | |
| Scale | – |
| Intensity | Strong |
| Center position | N22°10′(22.2°) |
| E138°55′(138.9°) | |
| Direction and speed of movement | N 15km/h(7kt) |
| Central pressure | 955hPa |
| Maximum wind speed near the center | 40m/s(80kt) |
| Maximum wind gust speed | 60m/s(115kt) |
| Area of 50kt winds or more | ALL150km(80NM) |
| Area of 30kt winds or more | NE390km(210NM) |
| SW280km(150NM) | |
| <Forecast for 19/00 UTC> | |
| Intensity | Strong |
| Center position of probability circle | N23°40′(23.7°) |
| E139°25′(139.4°) | |
| Direction and speed of movement | NNE 15km/h(7kt) |
| Central pressure | 960hPa |
| Maximum wind speed near the center | 40m/s(75kt) |
| Maximum wind gust speed | 55m/s(105kt) |
| Radius of probability circle | 90km(50NM) |
| Storm warning area | ALL220km(120NM) |
| <Forecast for 19/12 UTC> | |
| Intensity | Strong |
| Center position of probability circle | N25°05′(25.1°) |
| E141°00′(141.0°) | |
| Direction and speed of movement | NE 20km/h(10kt) |
| Central pressure | 965hPa |
| Maximum wind speed near the center | 35m/s(70kt) |
| Maximum wind gust speed | 50m/s(100kt) |
| Radius of probability circle | 160km(85NM) |
| Storm warning area | ALL260km(140NM) |
| <Forecast for 20/12 UTC> | |
| Intensity | Strong |
| Center position of probability circle | N31°35′(31.6°) |
| E148°00′(148.0°) | |
| Direction and speed of movement | NE 40km/h(22kt) |
| Central pressure | 970hPa |
| Maximum wind speed near the center | 35m/s(65kt) |
| Maximum wind gust speed | 50m/s(95kt) |
| Radius of probability circle | 330km(180NM) |
| Storm warning area | ALL430km(230NM) |
| <Forecast for 21/12 UTC> | |
| Intensity | – |
| LOW | |
| Center position of probability circle | N44°25′(44.4°) |
| E165°30′(165.5°) | |
| Direction and speed of movement | NE 85km/h(47kt) |
| Central pressure | 980hPa |
| Maximum sustained wind speed | 25m/s(50kt) |
| Maximum wind gust speed | 35m/s(70kt) |
| Radius of probability circle | 600km(325NM) |
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Super Typhoon 07W (Dolphin) Warning #40
Issued at 16/1500Z
WTPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z — NEAR 22.5N 138.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 015 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 138.6E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 23.9N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 25.8N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 28.7N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 32 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 33.3N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
—
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 138.8E.
TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM SOUTHWEST OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 33
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN
TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 May, 2015 12:00 GMT
Typhoon DOLPHIN (07W) currently located near 14.0 N 144.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Guam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
the Northern Mariana Islands
probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Hagatna (13.5 N, 144.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
MARITIME/ SHIPPING
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 181200
WTJP22 RJTD 181200
WARNING 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1507 DOLPHIN (1507) 955 HPA
AT 22.2N 138.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 23.7N 139.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 25.1N 141.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 31.6N 148.0E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 44.4N 165.5E WITH 325 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WWJP25 RJTD 181200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 984 HPA
AT 48N 176E SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 48N 176E TO 48N 180E 46N 175W.
WARM FRONT FROM 46N 175W TO 43N 172W 40N 170W.
COLD FRONT FROM 46N 175W TO 41N 177W 38N 180E 35N 175E 32N 166E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N 166E TO 31N 158E 32N 148E 33N 137E 35N 132E
27N 120E 25N 112E 24N 109E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
400 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 35N 132E WESTERN JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 28N 130E 31N 130E
35N 141E 42N 142E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 33N 180E 29N 165E 28N
149E 28N 130E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 39N 129E ENE 15 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 48N 146E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 34N 156E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 26N 163E EAST 10 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1507 DOLPHIN (1507) 955 HPA AT 22.2N 138.9E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html
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