Yap/ Fais/ Ulithi/ Philippines/ Pacific Ocean: Super Typhoon Maysak (04W) / Chedeng 311500Z POSITION near 10.4N 139.3E, moving W at 14 knots (JTWC) – 310315 1615z (GMT/UTC)

Super Typhoon Maysak (04W)/ Chedeng (in Philippines)

YAP in the Caroline Islands & Philippines beware!

(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 40 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1504-00 M31

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TY 1504 (MAYSAK)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 31 March 2015

<Analyses at 31/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Violent
Center position N10°10′(10.2°)
E139°55′(139.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 905hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N390km(210NM)
S330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N10°40′(10.7°)
E137°35′(137.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 900hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 01/12 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N11°20′(11.3°)
E135°55′(135.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 895hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(120kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(170kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 02/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°40′(12.7°)
E133°35′(133.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°55′(13.9°)
E130°40′(130.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

Philippines

Pagasa LogoPAGASA-DOST Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

TC Update: as of 10PM today 31 March 2015 (PhT), Typhoon w/ International Name “MAYSAK” was located at 1,530 km East of Surigao City (10.2°N, 139.4°E). Maximum sustained winds of 205kph near the center and gustiness of up to 240kph. It is forecast to move West Northwest at 20kph

11066785_778410438935534_8001588373223099484_n

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wp0415 M31

04W_311132sair

WTPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
311200Z — NEAR 10.2N 139.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 139.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 10.9N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 11.5N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z — 12.2N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 13.0N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 14.2N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 15.0N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 15.7N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 139.3E.
SUPER TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 31 Mar, 2015 12:00 GMT

Super Typhoon MAYSAK (04W) currently located near 10.2 N 139.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yap (9.5 N, 138.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
    Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
    Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image TSR)

(Image TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Philippines – As of today, there is no Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping issued – Dost pagasa

TYPHOON WARNING

WTJP31 RJTD 311500
WARNING 311500.
WARNING VALID 011500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1504 MAYSAK (1504) 905 HPA
AT 10.3N 139.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 10.8N 137.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 11.3N 135.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
895 HPA, MAX WINDS 120 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Further warnings here:

METAREA XI

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One thought on “Yap/ Fais/ Ulithi/ Philippines/ Pacific Ocean: Super Typhoon Maysak (04W) / Chedeng 311500Z POSITION near 10.4N 139.3E, moving W at 14 knots (JTWC) – 310315 1615z (GMT/UTC)

  1. TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 31 Mar, 2015 18:00 GMT

    Super Typhoon MAYSAK (04W) currently located near 10.3 N 138.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yap (9.5 N, 138.0 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 100% currently

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
    probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
    probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
    probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
    probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
    Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
    probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
    Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
    probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    Like

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