Philippines/Taiwan/Japan: Typhoon VONGFONG (STC Ambo in PH) 01W 13/1200Z 12.1°N 127.9°E, moving WNW 06kt. Wind 70kt, gust 100kt. 1006 hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 12 May 2020 1330Z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON VONGFONG 01W
(Severe Tropical Cyclone Ambo in Philippines)

“AMBO” INTENSIFIES INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

AMBO is forecast to further intensify as it approaches the Eastern Visayas-Bicol Region area – PAGASA

VONGFONG is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Expected to become a category 2 storm by 13 May, 18:00 UTC and further intensify to a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by 14 May, 6:00 UTC  (TSR UCL London data)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 22 FEET (JTWC)

JMA logo

2001-00

 

 

xxxx

TY 2001 (Vongfong)
Issued at 12:40 UTC, 13 May 2020

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 13 May>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N12°05′ (12.1°)
E127°55′ (127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 75 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 220 km (120 NM)
SW 165 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 14 May>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N12°40′ (12.7°)
E125°05′ (125.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 175 km (95 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 15 May>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N14°35′ (14.6°)
E122°10′ (122.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 165 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 16 May>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N17°50′ (17.8°)
E120°35′ (120.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 May>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N20°50′ (20.8°)
E122°35′ (122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 430 km (230 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 May>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25°35′ (25.6°)
E129°05′ (129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 650 km (360 NM)

Philippines

Severe Tropical Storm”Ambo”

Tropical Cyclone: WARNING

Issued at 05:00 pm, 13 May 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 11:00 PM today.)
“AMBO” INTENSIFIES INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
  • Heavy Rainfall Outlook:
  • Tonight (13 May): Scattered light to moderate with at times heavy rainshowers during thunderstorms over Eastern Visayas.
  • Tomorrow (14 May): Moderate to heavy rains over Eastern Visayas, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Masbate.
  • Residents in these areas are advised to take precautionary measures, coordinate with local disaster risk reduction and management offices, and continue monitoring for updates, especially the local rainfall or thunderstorm advisories and heavy rainfall warnings from PAGASA Regional Services Divisions (PRSD). Flooding and rain-induced landslides may occur in highly to very highly susceptible areas during heavy or prolonged rainfall.
  • Tropical Cyclone Winds:
  • Strong to gale force winds may begin to affect: Northern Samar and northern portion of Eastern Samar and Samar tomorrow afternoon; Sorsogon, Ticao Island, Catanduanes, and southern portion of Albay on Friday morning.
  • Other Hazards and Warning Information:
  • Rough seas will be experienced over the eastern seaboard of Bicol Region and the northern and eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas today. Sea travel is risky over these areas.
  • AMBO is forecast to further intensify as it approaches the Eastern Visayas-Bicol Region area.
  • TCWS #1 may be raised over southern portion of Camarines Sur and the rest of Albay in the next bulletin.
track-2
Location of Eye/center

At 4:00 PM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm “AMBO” was estimated based on all available data at 315 km East of Borongan City, Eastern Samar (12.1 °N, 128.3 °E )

Movement

Moving West Northwest at 10 km/h

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h

Forecast Position
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow afternoon): 160 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar(12.7°N, 126.1°E)
  • 48 Hour(Friday afternoon):20 km North Northwest of Daet, Camarines Norte(14.3°N, 122.9°E)
  • 72 Hour(Saturday afternoon): In the vicinity of Conner, Apayao(17.8°N, 121.3°E)
  • 96 Hour(Sunday afternoon):265 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes(21.9°N, 124.0°E)
  • 120 Hour(Monday afternoon):1,280 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)(26.6°N, 132.6°E)
Wind Signal (Areas with TCWS)
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • Sorsogon,Ticao Island,Catanduanes,and southern portion of Albay (Oas,Tabaco,Ligao City,Pio Duran,Guinobatan,Malilipot,Jovellar,Camalig,Santo Domingo,Bacacay,Rapu-rapu,Daraga,Legazpi,Manito)
  • Visayas
    • Northern Samar,northern portion of Samar (Calbayog,Sta. Margarita,Gandara,Matuguinao,Pagsanghan,San Jorge,San Jose De Buan,Tarangnan,Catbalogan City,Jiabong,Motiong,San Sebastian,Paranas,Hinabangan),and northern portion of Eastern Samar (Jipapad,Arteche,Maslog,Oras,San Policarpio,Dolores,Can-avid,Taft,Sulat,San Julian,Borongan City)
  • Mindanao
Meteorological Condition
  • A tropical cyclone will affect the locality.
  • Winds of 30-60 km/h may be expected in at least 36 hours or intermittent rains may be expected within 36 hours. (When the tropical cyclone develops very close to the locality a shorter lead time of the occurrence of the winds will be specified in the warning bulletin.)
Impact of the Wind
  • Twigs and branches of small trees may be broken.
  • Some banana plants may be tilted or downed.
  • Some houses of very light materials (nipa and cogon) may be partially unroofed.
  • Unless this warning signal is upgraded during the entire existence of the tropical cyclone, only very light or no damage at all may be sustained by the exposed communities.
  • Rice crop, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Precautionary Measures
  • When the tropical cyclone is strong or is intensifying and is moving closer, this signal may be upgraded to the next higher level.
  • The waves on coastal waters may gradually develop and become bigger and higher.
  • The people are advised to listen to the latest severe weather bulletin issued by PAGASA every six hours. In the meantime, business may be carried out as usual except when flood occur.
  • Disaster preparedness is activated to alert status.
What To Do
  • Inspect your house if necessary repair/fixing is needed.
  • Clean up drainage system.
  • Harvest crops tha can be yielded.
  • Monitor the latest Severe Weather Bulletin issued By PAGASA every six hours and hourly updates.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

TAIWAN

Go to https://www.cwb.gov.tw/V8/E/P/Typhoon/TY_NEWS.html

JTWC Tropical Warnings

Typhoon 01W (Vongfong) Warning #07
Issued at 13/0900Z

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 01W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
130600Z — NEAR 12.0N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 128.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 12.3N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 12.6N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 13.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 14.6N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z — 17.3N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 20.3N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z — 24.0N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 128.2E.
13MAY20. TYPHOON (TY) 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
465 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.
//
NNNN


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 May, 2020 6:00 GMT

 

Typhoon VONGFONG is currently located near 12.0 N 128.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 70 kts (81 mph).

VONGFONG is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

VONGFONG is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours
    Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
    Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
    Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
    Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours
    Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tacloban (11.2 N, 125.2 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP21 RJTD 131200
WARNING 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2001 VONGFONG (2001) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975
HPA
AT 12.1N 127.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 12.7N 125.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 14.6N 122.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 17.8N 120.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 20.8N 122.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 25.6N 129.1E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

Philippines Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping (link)

===========================================================================================================
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Iwo Jima(Japan) /Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI)/ West Pacific: Typhoon FENGSHEN (26W) 15/1500Z 21.7°N 142.2°E, moving N 11kt. Wind 85kt, gust 120kt. 965hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 15 Nov 2019 1900Z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON FENGSHEN (26W)

FENGSHEN is a CAT 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, expected to become a CAT 4 on same scale by 16 Nov, 0:00 UTC (TSR UCL London data)

Japanese/ US Military on Iwo Jima beware!

 

logo

1925-00-1

 

TY 1925 (Fengshen)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 15 November 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 15 November>
Scale
Intensity Very strong
Center position N21°40′ (21.7°)
E142°10′ (142.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 100 km (55 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 16 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N23°50′ (23.8°)
E143°25′ (143.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 160 km (85 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 16 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N25°05′ (25.1°)
E146°10′ (146.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N24°35′ (24.6°)
E149°25′ (149.4°)
Direction and speed of movement E 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 170 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 November>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N24°05′ (24.1°)
E146°25′ (146.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 300 km (160 NM)

xxxx

NWS WFO Guam

 

 

 

 

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 151548
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Fengshen (26W) Advisory Number 17
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP262019
148 AM ChST Sat Nov 16 2019

…FENGSHEN NOW A CATEGORY 3 TYPHOON…

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
————————–
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
Location…21.6N 142.3E

About 230 miles south-southeast of Iwo To
About 295 miles northwest of Agrihan
About 330 miles northwest of Pagan
About 360 miles northwest of Alamagan
About 500 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 585 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds…125 mph
Present movement…NNW…335 degrees at 13 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 AM ChST…1500 UTC…the center of Typhoon Fengshen was
located near Latitude 21.6 degrees North and Longitude 142.3 degrees
East. Fengshen is moving north-northwest at 13 mph and is making a
gradual curve to the northeast. While Fengshen is expected to speed
up slightly the next day or two, it will slow down as it makes a
broad clockwise loop well north of the northern Mariana Islands over
the weekend and into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 125 mph, making Fengshen a
Category 3 typhoon. Typhoon Fengshen is expected to intensify a
slight bit more through today before peaking in intensity this
evening. Fengshen will then begin to slowly weaken.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 35 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to 120
miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 800 AM.

$$

W. Aydlett


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NO STORM ALERT

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

EJKI2PvXUAAjXGS

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 151800
WARNING 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1925 FENGSHEN (1925) 965 HPA
AT 22.4N 142.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 24.4N 144.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 25.4N 147.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 24.4N 149.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 25.1N 145.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Ogasawara Islands/ Japan/ West Pacific: Major Typhoon BUALOI 22W 23/1500Z 25.0°N 141.9°E, moving N 13kt. Wind 90kt, gust 130kt. 950hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 23 Oct 2019 1730Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon BUALOI (22W, 1921)

BUALOI is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (TSR UCL London data)

…TYPHOON BUALOI MOVING NORTH VERY NEAR IWO TO ISLAND… – NWS Guam

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 39 FEET – JTWC

logo

1921-00

 

 

 

 

TY 1921 (Bualoi)
Issued at 16:45 UTC, 23 October 2019

<Analysis at 16 UTC, 23 October>
Scale
Intensity Very strong
Center position N25°00′ (25.0°)
E141°55′ (141.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)
<Estimate for 17 UTC, 23 October>
Scale
Intensity Very strong
Center position N25°10′ (25.2°)
E141°55′ (141.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 23 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N26°10′ (26.2°)
E142°00′ (142.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 40 km (20 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 24 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N27°35′ (27.6°)
E142°20′ (142.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 24 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N28°55′ (28.9°)
E143°00′ (143.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 24 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N30°25′ (30.4°)
E144°10′ (144.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)

xxxx

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Typhoon 22W (Bualoi) Warning #19
Issued at 23/1500Z

 

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 24.0N 141.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 141.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 26.7N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 29.5N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 32.6N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 35.9N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 17 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 42.1N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 142.0E.
23OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 58 NM SOUTHEAST
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//
NNNN

GUAM

WFO Guam (US NWS)

 

 

182
WTPQ32 PGUM 231438
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Typhoon Bualoi (22W) Advisory Number 19
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP222019
100 AM ChST Thurs Oct 24 2019

…TYPHOON BUALOI MOVING NORTH VERY NEAR IWO TO ISLAND…

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
————————–
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
Location…24.7N 142.0E

About 470 miles north-northwest of Agrihan
About 705 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 800 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds…115 mph
Present movement…N…355 degrees at 14 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 AM ChST…1500 UTC…the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located
near Latitude 24.7 degrees North and Longitude 142.0 degrees East…
moving north at 14 mph. Bualoi will turn towards the north-northeast
today and maintain this heading through Saturday. Bualoi is expected
to gradually increase its forward speed as it passes well east of
Japan.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 115 mph. Bualoi is expected to
steadily weaken through Saturday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 35 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to 155
miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last advisory that will be issued by the National Weather
Service for Typhoon Bualoi.

$$

Bukunt


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 Oct, 2019 0:00 GMT

 

Typhoon BUALOI is currently located near 17.1 N 145.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 115 kts (132 mph). BUALOI is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. BUALOI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Northern Mariana Islands
        probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

NONE

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP32 RJTD 231500
WARNING 231500.
WARNING VALID 241500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 950 HPA
AT 24.8N 142.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 27.6N 142.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 30.4N 144.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Japan/ West Pacific: Typhoon NEOGURI 21W 20/1200Z 25.4°N 129.9°E, moving NNE 11kt. Wind 65kt, gust 95kt. 980hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Published 20 Oct 2019 1443Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon NEOGURI (1920, 21W)

NEOGURI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (TSR UCL London data)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 24 FEET – JTWC

logo

1920-00

Visible Loop

TY 1920 (Neoguri)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 20 October 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 20 October>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N25°25′ (25.4°)
E129°55′ (129.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 21 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N28°00′ (28.0°)
E131°30′ (131.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 21 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N31°00′ (31.0°)
E133°50′ (133.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N34°20′ (34.3°)
E138°20′ (138.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 220 km (120 NM)

xxxx

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Typhoon 21W (Neoguri) Warning #16
Issued at 20/0900Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 21W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
201200Z — NEAR 25.6N 130.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 035 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 130.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z — 27.8N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 30.0N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 32.6N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 34.9N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 38.7N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 130.4E.
20OCT19. TYPHOON 21W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z,
210900Z AND 211500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 20 Oct, 2019 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NEOGURI is currently located near 24.5 N 129.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). NEOGURI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NEOGURI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

NONE

 

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 201200
WARNING 201200.
WARNING VALID 211200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1920 NEOGURI (1920) 980 HPA
AT 25.4N 129.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 28.0N 131.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 31.0N 133.8E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 34.3N 138.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Japan/ West Pacific: Typhoon HAGIBIS (20W) 12/0700Z 34.1°N 138.3°E, moving NNE 35 km/h (19 kt) Wind 45 m/s (85 kt) Gust 60 m/s (120 kt) 945hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 12 Oct 2019 0758Z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON HAGIBIS (1919, 20W)

 HAGIBIS is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. (TSR UCL London data)

JAPAN – Emergency Weather Warnings in effect

The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued heavy rain emergency warnings for many parts of central and eastern Japan. The warnings are at the highest level on the agency’s five-step scale. The affected areas are: Shizuoka Prefecture, Kanagawa Prefecture, Tokyo, Saitama Prefecture, Gunma Prefecture, Yamanashi Prefecture and Nagano Prefecture.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000ZIS 40 FEET – JTWC

 

 

JPWARN H12Emergency Weather Warnings in effect

The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued heavy rain emergency warnings for many parts of central and eastern Japan. The warnings are at the highest level on the agency’s five-step scale. The affected areas are: Shizuoka Prefecture, Kanagawa Prefecture, Tokyo, Saitama Prefecture, Gunma Prefecture, Yamanashi Prefecture and Nagano Prefecture.

 

VITAL INFORMATION FROM NHK JAPAN  https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/special/01/1919/

1919-00 JMA TRACK 0700Z

 

 

 

 

 

 

Himawari satellite (animation)  every 10 minutes / every 2.5 minutes

TY 1919 (Hagibis)
Issued at 07:40 UTC, 12 October 2019

<Analysis at 07 UTC, 12 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N34°05′ (34.1°)
E138°20′ (138.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 330 km (180 NM)
NW 260 km (140 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 650 km (350 NM)
W 560 km (300 NM)
<Estimate for 08 UTC, 12 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N34°25′ (34.4°)
E138°25′ (138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 330 km (180 NM)
NW 260 km (140 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 650 km (350 NM)
W 560 km (300 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 12 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°35′ (35.6°)
E139°35′ (139.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (24 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 40 km (20 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 12 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N37°55′ (37.9°)
E141°50′ (141.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55 km/h (31 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 13 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N39°35′ (39.6°)
E145°20′ (145.3°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 60 km/h (33 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 13 October>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N41°10′ (41.2°)
E150°00′ (150.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 75 km/h (40 kt)
Central pressure 984 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Oct, 2019 0:00 GMT

Typhoon HAGIBIS is currently located near 32.1 N 137.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). HAGIBIS is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. HAGIBIS is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

 

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Typhoon 20W (Hagibis) Warning #28
Issued at 12/0300Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
120000Z — NEAR 32.1N 137.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 010 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.1N 137.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 35.5N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 30 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 39.5N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 40 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 44.1N 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 33.0N 138.0E.
12OCT19. TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 224 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

DoctorR

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

NHK News https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/?utm_int=error_contents_news

NHK LIVE TV https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/live/

JAPAN: The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued heavy rain emergency warnings for many parts of central and eastern Japan. The warnings are at the highest level on the agency’s five-step scale. The affected areas are: Shizuoka Prefecture, Kanagawa Prefecture, Tokyo, Saitama Prefecture, Gunma Prefecture, Yamanashi Prefecture and Nagano Prefecture.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 120600
WARNING 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1919 HAGIBIS (1919) 945 HPA
AT 33.7N 138.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 37.9N 141.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 41.2N 150.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

 

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Tropical Cyclone SEVEN 25/1500Z 28.1°N, 137.5°E, moving N 08kt 1006hpa (RSMC Tokyo) – Published 25 Jul 2019 1755Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone SEVEN 07W

JMA logo

a-00

TD
Issued at 15:40 UTC, 25 July 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 25 July>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N28°05′ (28.1°)
E137°30′ (137.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 26 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N30°10′ (30.2°)
E137°00′ (137.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 80 km (45 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 26 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N32°20′ (32.3°)
E135°55′ (135.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 07W (Seven) Warning #03
Issued at 25/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251200Z — NEAR 27.5N 137.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5N 137.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 29.4N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 31.3N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 33.3N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 34.8N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 36.3N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 28.0N 137.3E.
25JUL19. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 483 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND
261500Z.//
NNNN


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 25 Jul, 2019 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm SEVEN is currently located near 27.5 N 137.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). SEVEN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Other

NONE

 

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 251200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 251200.
WARNING VALID 261200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 27.4N 137.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 29.4N 137.3E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 31.6N 136.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 42N 141E
47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 180E 36N 180E 32N 175E 31N 160E 35N 140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 47N 154E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 54N 148E SE 10 KT.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 36N 172E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
JMA WILL DISCONTINUE ITS PROVISION OF WWJP25 AND WWJP26
BY THE YEAR 2020 IN FAVOR OF WWJP27 AND WWJP28,
WHICH ARE IMPROVED VERSIONS OF THE TWO COMMUNICATIONS,
RESPECTIVELY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.