Kyushu/ Japan/ South Korea: Typhoon Goni (16W) 24/1500Z 30.5N 129.5E, moving NNE at 20 knots (JMA) – Updated 24 Aug 2015 1725Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Goni / Ineng 16W

( = CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 40 FEET- JTWC

Okinawa, Kyushu, JAPAN BEWARE!!

 Taiwan, South Korea, North Korea, Russia & China be aware!

Landfall over Kyushu is expected close to midnight tonight UK time (2300 GMT/UTC)

– UK Met Office

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1515-00 24 1600z
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15082421

CLICK IMAGE FOR LATEST WARNINGS

CLICK IMAGE FOR LATEST WARNINGS

TY 1515 (GONI)
Issued at 16:45 UTC, 24 August 2015

<Analyses at 24/16 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N30°50′(30.8°)
E129°35′(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE170km(90NM)
NW90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL460km(250NM)
<Estimate for 24/17 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N31°05′(31.1°)
E129°50′(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE170km(90NM)
NW90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL460km(250NM)
<Forecast for 24/21 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N32°25′(32.4°)
E130°20′(130.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area SE200km(110NM)
NW140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 25/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N34°35′(34.6°)
E131°00′(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area SE220km(120NM)
NW170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 25/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N35°50′(35.8°)
E131°25′(131.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area SE240km(130NM)
NW190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 25/15 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N36°55′(36.9°)
E131°35′(131.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area SE240km(130NM)
NW200km(110NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 16W (Goni) Warning #43
Issued at 24/1500Z

wp1615 24

wp16152409

16W_241132sair

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 043
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
241200Z — NEAR 29.6N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 035 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.6N 128.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 33.1N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 36.2N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 38.9N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 16 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 42.0N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 30.5N 129.2E.
TYPHOON 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 40
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Prognostic Reasoning

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Aug, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon GONI (16W) currently located near 29.6 N 128.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201516W 24

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

Typhoon Goni set for landfall over Japan – UK Met Office

24 August 2015 – The very active typhoon season in the Pacific Ocean has continued with intense typhoons Goni and Atsani tracking across the ocean during the last week

Whilst Atsani has stayed out at sea, Goni moved very close to the northern tip of the Philippines before making a sharp turn northwards. The typhoon then passed close to Taiwan before starting to move across the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. On Sunday the eye of Typhoon Goni passed over the island of Ishigaki with wind gusts of over 150 mph being recorded.

Goni is still a powerful typhoon as it accelerates north-eastwards towards south-western parts of mainland Japan. Landfall over Kyushu is expected close to midnight tonight UK time (2300 GMT/UTC) . Wind speeds in excess of 100 mph and heavy rain is expected bringing the risk of structural damage, damaging waves, flooding and landslides.

Typhoons Goni and Atsani on 20 August 2015. Image courtesy of The National Institute of Informatics

Typhoons Goni and Atsani on 20 August 2015. Image courtesy of The National Institute of Informatics 

The latest typhoons are part of an extremely active season for tropical cyclones across the whole Pacific Ocean brought about by the developing strong El Niño. In total there have been 28 tropical storms across the northern Pacific this year which includes 18 typhoons or hurricanes (different names for the same features in the west and east Pacific). 13 of the typhoons or hurricanes have been strong enough to be classified as ‘major’ on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Meanwhile the Atlantic has been relatively quiet with just four tropical cyclones so far this season. However, in the last few days Danny became the first hurricane of the season and, despite being downgraded to a tropical storm, is bringing windy and wet conditions to the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean.

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific are produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via on Twitter.

Last updated: 24 August 2015

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 241500

WTJP31 RJTD 241500
WARNING 241500.
WARNING VALID 251500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1515 GONI (1515) 940 HPA
AT 30.5N 129.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 34.6N 131.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 36.9N 131.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY..=

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

3 thoughts on “Kyushu/ Japan/ South Korea: Typhoon Goni (16W) 24/1500Z 30.5N 129.5E, moving NNE at 20 knots (JMA) – Updated 24 Aug 2015 1725Z (GMT/UTC)

  1. Philippines

    The death toll from Typhoon Goni has risen to seven in the northern Philippines with two more people missing in landslides and flash floods. The Philippine weather agency says the typhoon is still at sea on Saturday about 125 kilometers (78 miles) east of northern Calayan Island on the northern tip of the archipelago. It is packing maximum sustained winds of 160 kilometers (99 mph) per hour and gusts of up to 195 kph (121 mph. The slow-moving typhoon is forecast to start blowing away from the country on Sunday, passing east of Taiwan and heading toward Okinawa, Japan, early next week. Among the dead are two brothers who died when a landslide buried a temporary shelter where they took cover in the mountain province of Benguet.

    Saturday, 22 August, 2015 at 03:53 (03:53 AM) UTC RSOE

    Pilipinas

    Ang kamatayan toll mula sa Typhoon Goni ay nabuhay sa pitong sa hilagang Pilipinas na may dalawang karagdagang mga tao na nawawala sa pagguho ng lupa at flash baha. Sinasabi ng Philippine ahensiya panahon ng bagyo ay nasa dagat pa rin sa Sabado tungkol sa 125 kilometro (78 milya) sa silangan ng hilagang Calayan Island sa hilagang dulo ng arkipelago. Ito ay packing maximum lakas ng hangin na 160 kilometro (99 mph) kada oras at bugsong aabot sa 195 kilometro bawat oras (121 mph. Ang mabagal na gumalaw na bagyo ay forecast upang simulan ang pamumulaklak layo mula sa bansa sa Linggo, pagpasa sa silangan ng Taiwan at heading papunta sa Okinawa, Japan, sa susunod na linggo. Kabilang sa mga patay ay ang dalawang magkapatid na namatay kapag ang isang guho ng lupa inilibing isang pansamantalang kanlungan kung saan sila kinuha takip sa mountain lalawigan ng Benguet.

    Sabado, Agosto 22, 2015 sa 03:53 (03:53 AM) UTC RSOE

    フィリピン

    台風Goniから死亡者数は、2より多くの人が土砂崩れと鉄砲水に不足しているとフィリピン北部で7に上昇しています。フィリピンの気象機関は、台風が土曜日、約125キロ(78マイル)列島の北端に北部Calayan島の東に海のままであると言います。それには、最大195キロ(毎時121マイルの最大持続時間あたり160キロ(毎時99マイル)の風や突風を梱包されています。動きの遅い台風が台湾の東渡すと向かう、離れ日曜日の国から吹き始めると予想されます沖縄、日本、来週初め。地すべりは、彼らがベンゲットの山の州でカバーをした一時的な避難所を埋めたときに死亡した2人の兄弟である死者の中。

    2015年8月22日(土曜日)午前3時53分(午前3時53分午前)UTC rsoeので

    菲律賓

    颱風天鵝的死亡人數已經上升到七在菲律賓北部有兩個人失踪的山體滑坡和山洪暴發。菲律賓氣象部門說,颱風還在海上週六約125公里(78英里)北部加拉鄢島對群島的北端東側。它是包裝每小時160公里(99英里)最高持續風速可達195公里每小時(121英里每小時陣風,緩慢移動的颱風預計將開始吹離週日的國家,經過台灣東部和走向沖繩島,日本,下週初。死者中有兩兄弟誰死了,當山體滑坡掩埋一個臨時庇護所,他們採取了蓋子在本格特省的山區省。

    星期六2015年8月22日在3點53分(上午03點53分)UTC RSOE

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  2. TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 23 Aug, 2015 18:00 GMT

    Typhoon GONI (16W) currently located near 25.2 N 124.6 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
    probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
    probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    Like

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