Vietnam /Cambobia /Thailand /West Pacific: Severe Tropical Storm DAMREY 28W 022100Z 13.0N 114.4E, moving W 11 kt (JMA) – Updated 02 Nov 2017 2230z (GMT/UTC)

 Severe Tropical Storm DAMREY 28W

(RAMIL in PH)

Damrey expected to become a Typhoon equal to a Category 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale prior to landfall in Vietnam

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 16 FEET – JTWC

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1723-001

STS 1723 (Damrey)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 2 November 2017

 <Analysis at 21 UTC, 2 November>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N13°00′ (13.0°)
E114°25′ (114.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 440 km (240 NM)
SE 330 km (180 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N12°30′ (12.5°)
E112°00′ (112.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°25′ (12.4°)
E109°40′ (109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N12°35′ (12.6°)
E105°10′ (105.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated1

NCHMF VIETNAM

TROPICAL STORM WARNING
TC TRACKS
TROPICAL STORM WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

1 Friday, November 03, 2017 12.9 114.5 STS 93 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

1 Saturday, November 04, 2017 12.2 110.3 TY 120 km/hour
1 Sunday, November 05, 2017 12.1 105.3 TD 46 km/hour
13 Sunday, November 05, 2017 12.0 103.1 Low 37 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 5:00 AM Friday, November 03, 2017
Satellite Imagery

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 28W (Damrey) Warning #05
Issued at 02/2100Z

wp28171

28w_021800sair

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 28W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
021800Z — NEAR 12.7N 114.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 114.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 12.4N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z — 12.1N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 12.0N 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 12.0N 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z — 11.5N 100.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 113.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 28W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.
//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Nov, 2017 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm DAMREY is currently located near 12.7 N 114.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). DAMREY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Cambodia
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Nha Trang (12.2 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Phan Rang (11.6 N, 109.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Kon Tum (14.3 N, 108.0 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Laos
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Thailand
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kracheh (12.5 N, 106.0 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Phan Thiet (10.9 N, 108.1 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Phnom Penh (11.6 N, 104.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
    Ho Chi Minh City (10.8 N, 106.7 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
    Siemreab (13.4 N, 103.9 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201728w1201728w_01

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17110303

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 022100

WTJP31 RJTD 022100
WARNING 022100.
WARNING VALID 032100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1723 DAMREY (1723) 985 HPA
AT 13.0N 114.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 12.5N 112.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 032100UTC AT 12.4N 109.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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Okinawa/ Japan/ South Korea/ Russia/ West Pacific: SUPER TYPHOON LAN 25W 211500Z position nr 24.7N 132.9E, moving NNE 16kt (JTWC) – Updated 21 Oct 2017 1612z (GMT/UTC)

SUPER TYPHOON LAN (25W)

(=CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 41 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Super Typhoon 25W (Lan) Warning #25
Issued at 21/1500Z

wp25174

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
211200Z — NEAR 23.8N 132.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 025 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
265 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 132.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 27.3N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 330 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
415 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 23 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 31.4N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 370 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
315 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
430 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 33 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 36.7N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 400 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
420 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
325 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
395 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 39 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 42.0N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
490 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
390 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 132.9E.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 307 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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1721-004

993

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

TY 1721 (Lan)
Issued at 15:50 UTC, 21 October 2017

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 21 October>
Scale Very large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N24°30′ (24.5°)
E132°55′ (132.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 280 km (150 NM)
NW 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area W 1100 km (600 NM)
E 950 km (500 NM)
<Estimate for 16 UTC, 21 October>
Scale Very large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N24°40′ (24.7°)
E133°00′ (133.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 280 km (150 NM)
NW 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area W 1100 km (600 NM)
E 950 km (500 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 21 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N26°20′ (26.3°)
E133°25′ (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 50 km (25 NM)
Storm warning area SE 310 km (170 NM)
NW 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N28°30′ (28.5°)
E133°55′ (133.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N30°40′ (30.7°)
E134°55′ (134.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (24 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N32°55′ (32.9°)
E136°35′ (136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

NOAA

rb_lalo-animated22

TROPICAL STORM (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at21 Oct, 2017 12:00 GMT

Typhoon LAN is currently located near 23.8 N 132.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 130 kts (150 mph). LAN is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. LAN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201725w4201725w_04

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METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 RJTD 211500
WARNING 211500.
WARNING VALID 221500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1721 LAN (1721) 925 HPA
AT 24.5N 132.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 600 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 500 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 28.5N 133.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 32.9N 136.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1200

WWJP25 RJTD 211200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1004 HPA
AT 54N 138E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 54N 138E TO 53N 141E 52N 142E.
WARM FRONT FROM 52N 142E TO 49N 144E 46N 146E.
COLD FRONT FROM 52N 142E TO 49N 142E 44N 138E 41N 130E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 129E 30N 130E 28N 125E 20N 120E 23N 117E 26N
120E 32N 122E 35N 129E.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 11.6N 148.3E MARIANAS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 40N 142E
42N 140E 42N 143E 47N 152E 50N 155E 40N 155E 34N 180E 29N 180E 29N
170E 29N 155E 36N 141E.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1034 HPA AT 47N 159E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 130E TO 32N 134E 34N 140E 36N 146E 35N 152E
34N 157E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1721 LAN (1721) 925 HPA AT 23.8N 132.5E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ Russia: Tropical Storm Talim 20W 17/1500Z update from JTWC and others – Updated 17 Sep 2017 1547z (GMT/UTC)

 Tropical Storm Talim 20W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET – JTWC

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 20W (Talim) Warning #36
Issued at 17/1500Z

 

 

wp2017 TALIM JTWC 17

20W_171200sair TALIM 17

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
171200Z — NEAR 34.1N 134.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 050 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 134.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 39.5N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
390 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 29 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 44.8N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 35.5N 135.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

1718-00 TALIM JMA 17

JP WARNING

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

rb_lalo-animated3

STS 1718 (Talim)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 17 September 2017

<Analysis at 14 UTC, 17 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N35°20′ (35.3°)
E135°40′ (135.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 190 km (100 NM)
NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)
<Estimate for 15 UTC, 17 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N35°40′ (35.7°)
E136°05′ (136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 190 km (100 NM)
NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N40°40′ (40.7°)
E139°25′ (139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 60 km/h (33 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area NE 410 km (220 NM)
SW 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N45°50′ (45.8°)
E142°35′ (142.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 50 km/h (28 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area E 600 km (325 NM)
W 370 km (200 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Sep, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm TALIM is currently located near 34.1 N 134.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). TALIM is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk (47.0 N, 142.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201720W TALIM TSR1 17

201720W_0 TALIM TSR2 17

Russia

17.9.2017 16:00 | Day 18 September with saving until the end of the day in the Kaliningrad region, heavy rain is expected to wind up to 25 m/s.

17.9.2017 12:00 | On the night of September 18 in the Orenburg region expected freezing on soil (temperature to -2°).

16.9.2017 22:00 | Day 17 September and the first half of the night 18 September in the Irkutsk region precipitation (rain, wet snow), wind 18-23 m/s, storms, the establishment of a temporary snow cover.

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in the South Kuril and Kuril regions expected strong winds up to 35-40 m/s (hurricane), strong, sometimes very heavy rain (15-49 mm, 50 mm or more for 12:00).

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in southern Sakhalin and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk is expected to be very heavy rain (30 mm for 12:00), wind 25-30 m/s, gusts of 33-38 m/s (hurricane); 19 September in rivers podjomy water levels on the sharp 0.5 m -1.0.

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 and 19 September night in the East of Primorsky Krai expected places heavy rain (15-45 mm for 12:00 or less), wind 15-20 m/s, on the coast with gusts up to 28 m/s.

“In Monday, when Typhoon Talim will move along the western coast of Japan on water area of the sea of Japan, it will have an impact on the weather, the eastern half of the Primorski Krai. Rains of varying intensity, on the East coast of possible heavy rains and strong winds to the 20-25 m/s.

Ex-Talim will bring on Sakhalin and southern Kuril Islands rain and wind up to 15-20 m/s In the zone Tuesday spread to Northern Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. In Thursday afternoon in the southern area of the wind will die down, the Northern Islands will still windy.” – Russian National Forecaster (link)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

JP MARITIME 17

JP WX MAP 17

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1718 TALIM (1718) 975 HPA
AT 34.4N 134.6E SHIKOKU MOVING NORTHEAST 26 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 40.7N 139.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 45.8N 142.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Laos/ Vietnam/ Thailand: Severe Tropical Storm DOKSURI 21W 14/1500Z Update from JMA and others – Updated 15 Sep 2017 1830z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm DOKSURI 21W

(Please note date and time of forecasts carefully, JMA is the lead agency for this area)

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

1719-00 DOKSURI JMA 15.png

rb_lalo-animated DOKSURI SAT.gif

STS 1719 (Doksuri)
Issued at 16:10 UTC, 15 September 2017

Scale
Intensity
Center position N18°05′ (18.1°)
E103°50′ (103.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 390 km (210 NM)
S 330 km (180 NM)
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N19°20′ (19.3°)
E100°35′ (100.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N20°40′ (20.7°)
E97°40′ (97.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting
Address: No. 4 Dang Thai Than Street, Hoan Kiem District, Ha Noi
Tel: 84-4-38244919; 84-4-38244916; 84-4-82416000
E-mail: vanphong@nchmf.gov.vn

TROPICAL STORM WARNING
TC TRACKS
TROPICAL STORM WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

16 Friday, September 15, 2017 17.9 105.3 TS 76 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

22 Friday, September 15, 2017 18.4 104.0 TD 52 km/hour
04 Saturday, September 16, 2017 18.7 102.3 L 37 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 PM Friday, September 15, 2017

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Sep, 2017 0:00 GMT

Typhoon DOKSURI is currently located near 17.8 N 107.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 100 kts (115 mph). DOKSURI is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DOKSURI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Laos
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Thailand
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Dong Ha (16.9 N, 107.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Louangphrabang (19.9 N, 102.1 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Vientiane (18.0 N, 102.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

201721W DOKSURI TSR1

201721W_0 DOKSURI TSR2

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 RJTD 151500
WARNING 151500.
WARNING VALID 161500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1719 DOKSURI (1719) 990 HPA
AT 18.1N 103.8E THAILAND MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 19.3N 100.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161500UTC AT 20.7N 097.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ West Pacific: Typhoon SANVU 17W 311500Z position 28.1N 142.0E, moving N 07 kt (JTWC) – Updated 31 Aug 2017 1608z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Sanvu 17W

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 28 FEET – JTWC

wp201717_5day SANVU JTWC

(Image: @wunderground)

wp201717_sat SANVU

(Image: @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 17W (Sanvu) Warning #13
Issued at 31/1500Z

wp1717 JTWC

17W_311200sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SANVU) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
311200Z — NEAR 27.9N 141.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 141.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 28.7N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 29.5N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
255 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z — 31.7N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 22 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 35.8N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 28 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 46.6N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 305 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
375 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
285 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 28.1N 142.0E.
TYPHOON 17W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 51 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

jma-logo3

TY 1715 (Sanvu)
Issued at 13:50 UTC, 31 August 2017

1715-00 SANVU JMAJPWARN SANVU

 <Analysis at 14 UTC, 31 August>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N27°50′ (27.8°)
E141°55′ (141.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 950 km (500 NM)
W 500 km (270 NM)
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N27°55′ (27.9°)
E141°55′ (141.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 950 km (500 NM)
W 500 km (270 NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°10′ (28.2°)
E142°55′ (142.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE Slow
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°35′ (28.6°)
E143°10′ (143.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE Slow
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N33°20′ (33.3°)
E146°10′ (146.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 440 km (240 NM)
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N45°00′ (45.0°)
E150°10′ (150.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 55 km/h (30 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 410 km (220 NM)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 31 Aug, 2017 12:00 GMT

Typhoon SANVU is currently located near 27.9 N 141.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). SANVU is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. SANVU is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Japan
probability for TS is 85% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Russian Federation
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201717W TSR1

(Image: TSR)

201717W_0 TSR2

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

seawarn sanvu

17083121 jma map

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500
WTJP31 RJTD 311500
WARNING 311500.
WARNING VALID 011500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1715 SANVU (1715) 965 HPA
AT 27.9N 141.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 27.8N 142.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 28.5N 143.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=======================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China: Severe Tropical Storm Hato 15W 23/1200Z nr 22.7N 115.3E, moving WNW 30 km/h (16 kt) (JMA) – Updated 23 Aug 2017 1332z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Hato 15W downgraded to Severe Tropical Storm by JMA

 

JAPAN MET

1713-00 jma 23

STS 1713 (Hato)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 23 August 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 23 August>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N22°40′ (22.7°)
E111°00′ (111.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 330 km (180 NM)
N 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 24 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23°20′ (23.3°)
E107°55′ (107.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 24 August>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N23°40′ (23.7°)
E104°30′ (104.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

CMA CHINA typhoon_logo_v2.0
Typhoon Message
20170823 20:26

National Meteorological Center No.680
Analysis Time: Aug. 23th 12 UTC
Name of TC: HATO
Num. of TC: 1713
Current Location: 22.7°N 110.9°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 25m/s(90km/h)
Central Pressure: 985hPa
Forecast movement: next 24hrs HATO will moving WNW at speed of 28km/h
Currently on land
Red Warning of Typhoon

23-08-2017Source:National Meteorological Center

The National Meteorological Center issued red warning of typhoon at 6:00 p.m. on August 23.

At 5:00 p.m. today, Typhoon Hato, this year’s 13th typhoon, centered northern parts of the South China Sea (21.3N, 115.2E), about 200 kilometers away from southeastern Zhuhai city, Guangdong province. The maximum wind near the typhoon center hit scale 13 (40m/s).

It is forecasted to move toward northwest at a speed of 25 kilometers per hour with a strengthening force. At noon today, it is predicted to make landfall in Guangdong coast ranging from Zhuhai City to Yangjiang City (40~48 m/s, scale 13~15, typhoon level or severe typhoon level). After that Hato will continue to march toward west with a shrinking strength and slip into Guangxi on the evening of August 23 (30~33 m/s, scale 11~12, severe tropical storm or typhoon level).

Gale forecast: From August 23 to 24, in portions of Taiwan Strait, northern parts of the South China Sea, Qiongzhou Strait, Beibu Gulf, Guangdong coast, southern Fujian coast, eastern and northern Hainan coast, Guangxi coast, southern Guangdong coast, and eastern Guangxi, scale 7~9 gale is forecasted. Pearl River Estuary will be battered by scale 11~13 gale. Furthermore, the sea or land areas on the way of the typhoon center are expected to be hammered by scale 14~15 gale or scale 16~17 gust.

Precipitation forecast: From August 23 to 24, in some certain locations of most of Guangxi, western and southern Guangdong, northern Hainan Island, southern Fujian coast, and western Taiwan, heavy rain or rainstorm is forecasted. Furthermore, portions of southeastern Guangxi, southwestern Guangdong, and northeastern Hainan Island will be exposed to heavy rainstorm or extraordinary rainstorm (250~350 mm). (August 23)

Editor Wu Peng

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 23 Aug, 2017 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Typhoon HATO is currently located near 22.2 N 112.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). HATO is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. HATO is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Macau
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201715W tsr1 23

(Image: TSR)

201715W_0 tsr2 23

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11/ TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 231200

WTJP21 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1713 HATO (1713) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 985
HPA
AT 22.7N 111.0E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 23.3N 107.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 23.7N 104.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

West Pacific: Typhoon Banyan 14W 151500Z position 29.3N 162.6E, moving N 13 kt (JTWC) – Updated 15 Aug 2017 1350z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Banyan 14W

(= CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 25 FEET. (JTWC)

(Image: @wunderground)

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 14W (Banyan) Warning #11
Issued at 13/1500Z

 

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 28.5N 162.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 005 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 162.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 31.5N 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 35.0N 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 29 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 39.2N 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 32 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 44.0N 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 29.3N 162.6E.
TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

TY 1712 (Banyan)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 15 August 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 15 August>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°20′ (28.3°)
E162°10′ (162.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 60 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 280 km (150 NM)
W 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 16 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°10′ (31.2°)
E162°55′ (162.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 16 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N34°40′ (34.7°)
E166°05′ (166.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 40 km/h (22 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 August>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N43°00′ (43.0°)
E177°30′ (177.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55 km/h (30 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)

Units:
1 kt (knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1 nm (nautical mile) = 1.852 km

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 151200

WTJP21 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1712 BANYAN (1712) 975 HPA
AT 28.3N 162.2E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 31.2N 162.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 34.7N 166.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 43.0N 177.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ Korea: Typhoon Noru 07W 031600Z nr 28.3°N 132.8°E, moving WNW 10 km/h 6kt(JMA) – Updated 03 Aug 2017 1720z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Noru 07W

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

⚠️ Japan BEWARE!!   Korea BE AWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 34 FEET – JTWC

wp201707_5day Noru wund 03 aug

(Image: @wunderground)

wp201707_sat_anim noru wund sat 03 .gif

1705-00 NURU JMA 03a

1705-00 NURU JMA 03

WARN 03

Himawari 8 near real time (link)

TY 1705 (Noru)
Issued at 16:40 UTC, 3 August 2017

<Analysis at 16 UTC, 3 August>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°20′ (28.3°)
E132°50′ (132.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)
<Estimate for 17 UTC, 3 August>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°20′ (28.3°)
E132°40′ (132.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 4 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N28°30′ (28.5°)
E131°30′ (131.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 4 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N28°40′ (28.7°)
E130°25′ (130.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 5 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N29°20′ (29.3°)
E129°25′ (129.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 310 km (170 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 6 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N31°20′ (31.3°)
E130°00′ (130.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 07W (Noru) Warning #56
Issued at 03/1500Z

wp0717 JTWC 03

07W_031200sair 03

IR Sat

 

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR 056
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
031200Z — NEAR 28.3N 133.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.3N 133.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 28.7N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 29.1N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 29.6N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 30.4N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 32.4N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 36.3N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 40.6N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 28.4N 132.9E.
TYPHOON 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 307 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 34
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (NALGAE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Aug, 2017 12:00 GMT

Typhoon NORU is currently located near 28.3 N 133.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). NORU is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NORU is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201707W 03 TSR1

(Image: TSR)

201707W_0 03 TSR2

(Image: TSR)

Other

Typhoon Noru poses a growing threat to southern Japan – Category 6

“Residents of Japan’s southern islands need to keep a close eye on Typhoon Noru. Noru was a strong Category 2 storm as of 12Z Tuesday, with top sustained winds (1-minute) of 90 knots (105 mph) as estimated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). After hurtling to Category 5 intensity on Sunday, the typhoon weakened gradually on Monday as it lost the benefit of a high-altitude outflow channel. However, Noru is expected to re-intensify as it moves slowly northwest toward Japan, where it will encounter slightly warmer waters (above 30°C or 86°F), and into a region with more favorable upper-level winds.

Noru’s northwest track is expected to bend slightly westward as it moves around a compact upper-level high parked near South Korea and the Sea of Japan. This is good news for Japan’s key population centers, including Tokyo, as it would take the typhoon well to their southwest. The large southern island of Kyushu, and the smaller archipelago of the Ryukyu Islands, may not be so lucky. By this weekend, the JTWC track brings Noru toward the west coast of Kyushu as a Category 3 storm. Such a track would put Kyushu on the more dangerous right-hand side of the typhoon. The official three-day outlook from the Japan Meteorological Agency angles Noru more toward the west over the next three days, which would bring the strongest impacts into the more sparsely populated Ryukyu Islands. A crucial question is how quickly the small upper high to the north of Noru breaks down, which is very difficult to predict at this point. The cone of uncertainty for Noru is, in reality, larger than is currently being depicted, given the higher-than-usual uncertainties in the evolution of the steering flow for the typhoon.

For what it’s worth, the operational runs of both the European and GFS models re-intensify Noru into a fearsome super typhoon. The 0Z Tuesday run of the Euro model took Noru on a track similar to the JTWC forecast, looping just to the west of Kyushu, while the 0Z and 6Z Tuesday runs of the GFS moved Noru on a slower, more northward track that would affect Kyushu as well as parts of central Japan. Both models deepened Noru below 900 mb by this weekend, which would imply the possibility of a Category 5 supertyphoon, but these values are very likely unrealistic. This may be a good example of the current tendency of global models to over-deepen strong tropical cyclones at subtropical latitudes (roughly north of 25°N). Until recent years, the global models featured resolution that was too coarse to replicate the lowest pressures at the heart of strong tropical cyclones. Today, the upgraded, higher-resolution models can produce very low surface pressures more readily, but they do not fully account for the ocean-atmosphere interaction across subtropical regions. At these latitudes, late-summer ocean temperatures can be very warm over a very shallow layer that is quickly disrupted by a strong hurricane or typhoon. (Thanks to Julian Heming, UK Met Office, for this background.) We should look at the HWRF model, which is our best intensity model, for guidance on how strong Noru might get. The 06Z Tuesday run of the HWRF model rebuilds Noru to Category 4 strength with 140 mph winds, and predicts a track that would take the storm well west of Kyushu.” – Dr. Jeff Masters & Bob Henson atCategory 6

MARITIME/SHIPPING

seawarn 03a

(Image: JMA)

jma map 03

(Image: JMA)

 

(Image: JMA)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 021200

WTJP31 RJTD 031500
WARNING 031500.
WARNING VALID 041500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1705 NORU (1705) 950 HPA
AT 28.3N 133.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 28.5N 131.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 28.7N 130.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China: Typhoon 07W Soulik/Huaning 112100Z has made final landfall near Fuzhou City in Fujian Province – 130713 1340z

Typhoon 07W (Soulik)

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

(Image: JMA) 5 day forecast

STS 1307 (SOULIK)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 13 July 2013
<Analyses at 13/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N2630′(26.5)
E11920′(119.3)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E650km(350NM)
W280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 13/21 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N2835′(28.6)
E11730′(117.5)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 14/09 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N3040′(30.7)
E11555′(115.9)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

(Image: JMA) Japan Weather Warnings/Advisories (Click image for source)

China Meteorological Administration

(Image: CMA) TC track (Click image for source)

(Image: CMA)
China Radar
(Click image for source/animation)

ZCZC 111

WTPQ20 BABJ 131100

SUBJECTIVE FORECAST

STS SOULIK 1307 (1307) INITIAL TIME 131100 UTC

00HR 26.2N 118.8E 985HPA 30M/S

P12HR NW 25KM/H=

NNNN

for Saturday, 13 July 2013 [7:45 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON SOULIK (HUANING) UPDATE NUMBER 016
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday 13 July 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday 14 July 2013



“Typhoon SOULIK (HUANING) has made its final landfall over Southeastern China or in the vicinity of Fuzhou City in Fujian Province…decaying eyewall bringing typhoon-force winds with heavy rains across the area. Gradual dissipation of this system will be expected within the next 24 hours.

Residents and visitors along Southeastern China should closely monitor the development of Soulik (Huaning).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6:00 pm today, the center of Typhoon Soulik (Huaning) was located over Fujian Province in Southeastern China…about 10 km east of Fuzhou City, China or 250 km northwest of Taipei, Taiwan…currently moving west-northwest with a decreased forward speed of 19 km/hr in the general direction of Jiangxi Province.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 120 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers from the center…and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 370 kilometers. Soulik (Huaning) is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Soulik (Huaning) is estimated to be heavy (370 mm).” – http://www.typhoon2000.ph/update.html

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC Warning Graphic (Click image for source)

WTPN31 PGTW 130900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
130600Z — NEAR 25.8N 120.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8N 120.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 27.7N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 30.0N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 32.5N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 26.3N 119.7E.
TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 130600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z
AND 140900Z.//
NNNN

Tracking Info For Typhoon Soulik

(wunderground.com)

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type

-

18 GMT 07/07/13 19.3N 147.3E 35

00 GMT 07/08/13 19.2N 145.7E 45 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 07/08/13 19.1N 143.7E 50 Tropical Storm

12 GMT 07/08/13 19.1N 142.6E 65 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 07/08/13 19.4N 141.5E 75 Category 1

00 GMT 07/09/13 19.6N 140.4E 85 Category 1

06 GMT 07/09/13 19.9N 139.4E 100 Category 2

12 GMT 07/09/13 20.3N 138.1E 110 Category 2

18 GMT 07/09/13 20.6N 137.2E 135 Category 4

00 GMT 07/10/13 21.1N 135.8E 145 Category 4

06 GMT 07/10/13 21.4N 134.6E 145 Category 4

12 GMT 07/10/13 21.8N 133.5E 140 Category 4

18 GMT 07/10/13 22.0N 132.2E 135 Category 4

00 GMT 07/11/13 22.1N 131.0E 120 Category 3

06 GMT 07/11/13 22.3N 129.7E 110 Category 2

12 GMT 07/11/13 22.4N 128.4E 110 Category 2

18 GMT 07/11/13 22.5N 126.9E 110 Category 2

00 GMT 07/12/13 22.7N 125.9E 110 Category 2

06 GMT 07/12/13 23.2N 124.9E 105 Category 2

12 GMT 07/12/13 23.8N 123.8E 100 Category 2

18 GMT 07/12/13 24.8N 122.3E 90 Category 1

00 GMT 07/13/13 24.7N 120.8E 85 Category 1

06 GMT 07/13/13 25.8N 120.1E 80 Category 1

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Jul, 2013 6:00 GMT

Typhoon SOULIK (07W) currently located near 25.8 N 120.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently
Wuhu (31.5 N, 118.5 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Hangzhou (30.3 N, 120.2 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Nanjing (32.0 N, 118.8 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Hefei (32.0 N, 117.0 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Typhoon Soulik Becomes Deadly, Storm Footage and Forecast

Published on July 13, 2013 by

Typhoon Soulik made landfall in North Eastern Taiwan during the overnight hours on July 12th through 13th packing winds over 200kph as it came ashore. As of writing this update one casualty has been reported by local media

7hr Rainfall Accumalation

due to the storm. As the storm continues to cruise west towards Fuzhou China rains will continue to batter much of Central Taiwan. The image to the right shows just how much has come down today. Some totals climbing over the 500mm mark in just a few short hours. It is the areas in the reds and purples on this map that are at greatest risk for flooding and landslides as moisture continues to stream ashore on to the island throughout the day. Our video update above talks about this and also the latest information coming in out of Taiwan.

Typhoon Storm Footage

” - westernpacificweather.com

MARITIME

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 131200
WARNING 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1307 SOULIK (1307) 990 HPA
AT 26.7N 118.8E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 29.0N 117.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 31.5N 115.5E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Other Reports

Xi Urges SW China Landslide Rescue Efforts

 

2013-07-13 00:10:19 XinhuaWeb Editor: Xing Yihang

 

“Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday urged sparing no efforts in searching for people left missing after a serious landslide in southwest China’s Sichuan Province.

 

Xi said the government will also do its best to assist the families of victims, according to a statement issued by the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee to Xinhua.

 

The landslide, which took place on Wednesday morning due to continuous and severe downpours, has led to 26 deaths in a village in Dujiangyan City as of Friday afternoon. Another 123 people are either missing or have lost contact with their families.

 

Nearly 1,000 rescuers have been sent to the site to search for survivors and evacuate trapped villagers.

 

A number of temporary shelters have been set up to receive the affected villagers and their families.

 

The State Council has sent an expert team to supervise the rescue work in the village, the statement said.

56 Dead, 178 Missing in Sichuan Rainstorms

Torrential rains pounding southwestern China’s Sichuan province have left at least 56 people dead and nearly 180 missing. Over 240-thousand residents across the province have been forced from home. Details & pictures here” – cri.cn

Chinese (Translated by Google)

中國:颱風07W的蘇力/江華寧112100Z作出終審福建省福州市附近登陸 – 130713 1340z

STS 1307(蘇力)
2013年7月,13在09:45 UTC日發行
<Analyses在13/09 UTC>
秤 –
強度 –
中心位置N2630’(26.5)
E11920’(119.3)
運動淨重20公里每小時(11克拉的方向和速度)
中心氣壓985hPa
最大持續風速25M / s的(50克拉)
最大陣風速度35M / s的(70克拉)
區的風30克拉或更多E650km(350NM)
W280km(150NM)
<Forecast為二十一分之一十三UTC>
強度 –
中心位置的概率圓N2835’(28.6)
E11730’(117.5)
方向和速度運動淨重25KM /小時(13克拉的)
中心氣壓996hPa
最大持續風速18m / s的(35克拉)
最大陣風線速度25m / s的(50克拉)
半徑概率圓90公里(50NM)
<Forecast為14/09 UTC>
強度 –
TD
概率圈的中心位置N3040’(30.7)
E11555’(115.9)
方向和速度運動西北偏北25KM /小時(13克拉)
中心氣壓998hPa
半徑概率圓140公里(75NM)

(圖片提供:JMA)日本天氣警告/諮詢,(點擊圖片來源)
中國國家氣象局

(圖片提供:CMA)TC軌道(點擊圖片源)

(圖片提供:中國氣象局)
中國雷達
(點擊圖片來源/動畫)

ZCZC 111

WTPQ20 BABJ 131100

主觀預測

STS蘇力1307(1307)初始時刻131100 UTC

00HR 26.2N 118.8E 985HPA 30M / S

P12HR西北25KM / H =

7月13日(星期六)2013 7:45 PM PHT]

WEATHER.COM.PH熱帶氣旋更新

颱風蘇力(華寧)016號更新
發行:PHT下午7:00(格林威治時間11:00)2013年7月13日(星期六)
下次更新時間:7:00 AM PHT(23:00 GMT)2013年7月14日(星期日)

颱風蘇力(華寧)作出終審中國東南部登陸,或在福建省福州市附近…腐爛的眼壁使颱風強風大雨整個區域逐漸消散,這個系統將在預料之內。在接下來的24小時內。

沿著中國東南的居民和遊客應密切監測的蘇力(江華寧)發展。

不要使用這個生命或死亡的決定。此更新適用於額外的信息僅供參考。官方警告,勸告或公告,請參閱您的國家氣象機構。
當前風暴分析

颱風蘇力(華寧)截至今天下午6:00,該中心位於中國東南部的福建省關於撫州市以東10公里,中國或250位於台灣台北…正在向西移動西北與降低前進速度19公里/小時的大方向江西省。

最大持續風速(平均1分鐘。)已經下降到接近120公里/小時,中心附近具有較高的陣風。 (118公里/小時或以上)颱風力風向向外延伸了85公里,從中心和熱帶風暴強風(62-117公里/小時)向外延伸至370公里。蘇力(江華寧)是一個直徑925公里的一個非常大型的熱帶氣旋。的蘇力(江華寧)中心附近的24小時累積降雨量估計為重(370毫米)。 – http://www.typhoon2000.ph/update.html
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)

(圖片提供:聯合颱風警報中心)TC警告圖形(點擊圖片來源)

谷歌地球圖形疊加

WTPN31 PGTW 130900

,MSGID / GENADMIN的的/合營號颱風WRNCEN珍珠港HI / /
的SUBJ /熱帶氣旋警告/ /
RMKS /
1。颱風07W(蘇力)警告NR 023
01活躍的熱帶氣旋在NORTHWESTPAC
基於一分鐘平均最大持續風速
風半徑僅在開放的水有效

警告位置:
130600Z —近25.8N 120.1E
運動過去六小時 – 290度10 KTS
位置精確到060海裡內
基於位置的衛星中心
目前風分佈:
最大持續風速 – 070 KT,陣風085 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
半徑為064千噸風 – 045 NM東北象限
035海裡,東南象限
030海裡,西南象限
045 NM西北象限
半徑為050千噸風 – 085 NM東北象限
055海裡,東南象限
055海裡,西南象限
085 NM西北象限
半徑為034千噸風 – 200 NM東北象限
155 NM東南象限
130 NM西南象限
155 NM西北象限
重複POSIT:25.8N 120.1E

預測:
12小時,有效的:
131800Z — 27.7N 118.3E
最大持續風速 – 050 KT,陣風065 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在土地消散
矢量24 HR POSIT:340度/ 12 KTS

24小時,有效的:
140600Z — 30.0N 117.2E
最大持續風速 – 035 KT,陣風045 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在土地消散
矢量36小時POSIT:350℃/ 13 KTS

36小時,有效的:
141800Z — 32.5N 116.6E
最大持續風速 – 020 KT,陣風030 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在土地消耗

備註:
26.3N 119.7E 130900Z位置附近。
颱風07W(蘇力),位於以西約87海裡
台灣台北,西北西北偏西跟踪
在過去六小時10海裡。最大有效波高
AT 130600Z為25英尺。 NEXT警告131500Z 132100Z 140300Z
140900Z / /

颱風蘇力跟踪信息

(wunderground.com)

時間緯度經度風(英里每小時)風暴

———————

格林威治時間18 13年7月7日19.3N 147.3E 35

13年7月8日00 GMT 19.2N 145.7E 45熱帶風暴

13年7月8日06 GMT 19.1N 143.7E 50熱帶風暴

12 GMT 13年7月8日19.1N 142.6E 65熱帶風暴

18 GMT 13年7月8日19.4N 141.5E 75類別1

00格林威治時間13年7月9日19.6N 140.4E 85類別1

格林威治時間06 13年7月9日19.9N 139.4E百,類別2

格林威治時間12 13年7月9日20.3N 138.1E 110類別2

格林威治時間18 13年7月9日20.6N 137.2E 135類別4

格林威治時間00 13年7月10日21.1N 135.8E 145類別4

格林威治時間06 13年7月10日21.4N 134.6E 145類別4

格林威治時間12 13年7月10日21.8N 133.5E 140類別4

格林威治時間18 13年7月10日22.0N 132.2E 135類別4

格林威治時間00 13年7月11日22.1N 131.0E 120類別3

格林威治時間06 13年7月11日22.3N 129.7E 110類別2

格林威治時間12 13年7月11日22.4N 128.4E 110類別2

格林威治時間18 13年7月11日22.5N 126.9E 110類別2

格林威治時間00 13年7月12日22.7N 125.9E 110類別2

格林威治時間06 13年7月12日23.2N 124.9E 105類別2

格林威治時間12 13年7月12日23.8N 123.8E百,類別2

18 GMT 13年7月12日24.8N 122.3E 90類別1

00格林威治時間13年7月13日24.7N 120.8E 85類別1

06 13年7月13日北京時間25.8N 120.1E 80,第1類
TSR logoNW太平洋:2013 13七月,發出暴風警報北京時間6:00

颱風蘇力(07W)目前位於25.8附近,ň120.1 E的預測在給定的領先時間(s)以下的可能性(次)取得土地:

紅色警戒國家(S)或省(S)
中國
CAT 1或以上的概率為100%,目前
為TS的概率是100%,目前
紅色警戒市(s)和鎮(S)
福州(26.1 N,119.3)
CAT 1或以上的概率是100%在12小時內
為TS的概率是100%,目前
福安市(27.1 N,119.7)
CAT 1或以上的概率是65%,在12小時內
為TS的概率是100%,目前
莆田(25.6 N,119.0)
CAT 1或以上的概率是40%在12小時內
為TS的概率是100%,目前

黃色警示國家(S)或省(S)
台灣
為TS的概率是100%,目前
黃色警報城(s)和鎮(S)
金華(29.2 N,120.0)
變性人的概率是100%,在12小時內
衢州(29.0 N,119.0)
變性人的概率是100%,在12小時內
溫嶺市(28.4 N,121.4)
變性人的概率是100%,在12小時內
溫州(27.5 N,120.5)
為TS的概率是100%,目前
台北(25.0 N,121.5)
為TS的概率是100%,目前
T’aichung(24.1 N,120.7)
為TS的概率是100%,目前
泉州(25.0 N,118.5)
變性人的概率是95%,目前
蕪湖市(北緯31.5度,118.5)
為TS的概率是85%,在約24小時
杭州(30.3 N,120.2)
為TS的概率是75%,在約24小時
南京(北緯32.0度,東經118.8度)
為TS的概率是70%,在約24小時
合肥(北緯32.0度,117.0)
為TS的概率是70%,在約24小時
漳州(24.5東經117.8)
變性人的概率是55%,在12小時內

需要注意的是
紅色警報(嚴重)是CAT 1或以上至31%和100%的概率。
黃色警戒(升高)是CAT 1或以上的介於10%和30%的概率,或者在50%以上的概率。
CAT 1意味著颱風強度至少74英里的風,119公里/小時或每小時64海裡,持續1分鐘。
TS意味著至少39英里的熱帶風暴強度的風,63公里每小時34節1分鐘持續。

對於圖形的預測信息和進一步詳情,請訪問http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
颱風蘇力成為致命風暴影像與預測
發布時間2013年7月13 robspeta

颱風蘇力在北台灣東部登陸,在7月12日的隔夜小時至13包裝風200kph上岸寫這篇更新一人傷亡,當地媒體曾報導

7HR雨量聚點

由於風暴。隨著風暴繼續向中國福州下雨郵輪西將繼續連擊台灣中部大部分地區。在右邊的圖像顯示,到底有多少,今天回落。有些合計攀越500mm的標記,在短短的短短幾個小時。它是在此地圖上的紅色和紫色的領域是最大的洪水和山體滑坡的危險,水分繼續到島上全天上岸流。以上談我們的視頻更新的最新信息來進出台灣。

颱風暴雨影像

– westernpacificweather.com
海事
METAREA11 / / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN的1200

WTJP21 RJTD 131200
警告131200。
警告有效141200。
警告6小時更新一次。
風暴警報。
強烈熱帶風暴1307蘇力(1307)990 HPA
AT 26.7N 118.8E華南西北移動14海裡。
POSITION不錯。
MAX大風50節。
超過30個結風半徑300公里東半圓150英里
在別處。
預測位置在50英里半徑29.0N 117.2E 140000UTC
70%的概率圓。
998百帕。
熱帶低氣壓BECOMING。
預測位置在75英里半徑31.5N 115.5E 141200UTC
70%的概率圓。
998百帕。
熱帶低氣壓BECOMING。

日本氣象廳。
其他報告
習近平敦促中國西南地區滑坡救援工作

2013-07-13零點10分十九秒新華社網絡編輯:邢一行

中國國家主席習近平上週五呼籲不遺餘力地尋找人留下一個嚴重的滑坡後失踪在中國西南地區的四川省。

習近平說,政府也將盡全力協助受害人的家屬,根據共產黨中央委員會中國新華辦公廳發出的一份聲明。

週五下午在都江堰市的一個村莊,山體滑坡,上週三早上發生了由於連續嚴重暴雨,已導致26人死亡。另有123人失踪或與家人失去聯繫。

近1000名救援人員已被送往到現場搜索倖存者和疏散被困村民。

已設立一些臨時避難所接收安置受影響的村民和他們的家人。

聲明說,國務院已派出一個專家小組,以監督救援工作在村里。
四川暴雨警告56人死亡,178人失踪

中國西南部四川省的衝擊暴雨已造成至少56人死亡,近180人失踪。全省已超過240萬居民被迫出走。詳情及圖片 – cri.cn

Japanese (Translated by Google)

中国: – 130713 1340z台風07W Soulik / Huaning 112100Zは、福建省福州市の近くに最終的な上陸をした

STS 1307(SOULIK)
9時45分UTC、2013年7月13日に発行される
13/09 UTC>で<Analyses
1:43 –
強度 –
中心位置N2630 ‘(26.5)
E11920 ‘(119.3)
動きNW毎時20キロ(11カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧985hPa
最大持続風速25メートル/秒(50カラット)
最大風速突風スピード35メートル/秒(70カラット)
30カラット風の面積以上E650km(350nmの)
W280km(150nmの)
21分の13 UTC>用<Forecast
強度 –
確率サークルN2835 ‘(28.6)の中心位置
E11730 ‘(117.5)
動きNW毎時25キロ(13カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧996hPa
最大持続風速18メートル/秒(35カラット)
最大突風スピード25メートル/秒(50カラット)
確率サークル90キロの半径(50NM)
14/09 UTC>用<Forecast
強度 –
TD
確率円の中心位置N3040 ‘(30.7)
E11555 ‘(115.9)
動きNNW毎時25キロ(13カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧998hPa
確率140キロの円の半径(75nmの)

(画像:JMA)は、日本の気象警報/アドバイザリ(ソース画像をクリック)
中国気象局

(画像:CMA)TCトラック(ソース画像をクリック)

(画像:CMA)
中国レーダー
(ソース/アニメーション画像をクリック)

ZCZC 111

WTPQ20 BABJ 131100

主観FORECAST

STS SOULIK 1307(1307)初期時間131100 UTC

00HR 26.2N 118.8E 985HPA 30M / S

P12HR NW 25キロ/ H =

NNNN

土曜日のため、2013年7月13日[19:45 PHT]

WEATHER.COM.PH熱帯低気圧のアップデート

TYPHOON SOULIK(HUANING)アップデート番号016
発行:7:00 PM PHT(11:00 GMT)土曜日2013年7月13日
次に更新:7:00 AM PHT(23:00 GMT)日曜日2013年7月14日

“台風SOULIK(HUANING)は東南中国全土や福建省福州市の近く…領域にわたって大雨と台風強風をもたらす腐敗眼の壁にその最終的な上陸してきました。このシステムの漸進的な損失が以内に期待されます次の24時間。

東南中国に沿って住民や観光客が密接Soulik(Huaning)の開発を監視する必要があります。

生きるか死ぬかの決定のためにこれを使用しないでください。このアップデートは、追加情報の提供のみを目的としています。親切に公式警告、勧告または公報のためにあなたの国家気象機関を参照してください。
CURRENT STORM分析

午後6時の時点で今日は、台風Soulik(Huaning)の中心は南東中国福建省の上に配置されました…福州市、中国や台湾の250キロ北西、台湾から東に10km離れた約…現在西へ移動江西省の一般的な方向に19キロ/時の速度が前進減少で-北西。

最大風速(1分間平均)が高い風速で中央付近に近い120キロ/時まで減少している。台風の強風(118キロ/時以上)の中心部から85キロまでの外側に延び…そしてトロピカルストームフォースの風(62〜117キロ/時)は延長370キロまでの外側。 Soulik(Huaning)は全体で925キロの直径を持つ、非常に大型の熱帯低気圧です。 Soulik(Huaning)の中央付近に24時間の降雨量の蓄積が(370ミリメートル)重いと推定されている ” – 。http://www.typhoon2000.ph/update.html
合同台風警報センター(JTWC)

(画像:JTWC)TC警告グラフィック(ソース画像をクリック)

Google Earthのグラフィックオーバーレイ

WTPN31 PGTW 130900

MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN真珠湾HI / /
SUBJ /熱帯低気圧の警告/ /
RMKS /
1。 TYPHOON 07W(SOULIK)警告NR 023
NORTHWESTPAC IN 01 ACTIVE熱帯低気圧
MAXはONE-MINUTE平均に基づいてWINDSを支え
ONLY OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径

警告POSITION:
130600Z — NEAR 25.8N 120.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 10 KTS AT 290 DEGREES
060 NM以内の正確な位置
衛星によるLOCATED CENTERに基づく位置
PRESENT WIND配分:
MAX持続WINDS – 070 KT、突風085 KT
ONLY OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径
064 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
リピートPOSIT:25.8N 120.1E

予測:
12 HRS、AT VALID:
131800Z — 27.7N 118.3E
MAX持続WINDS – 050 KT、突風065 KT
ONLY OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径
LAND比べて大きな熱帯低気圧AS散逸
24人事POSITへのベクトル:340 DEG / 12 KTS

AT VALID 24時間:
140600Z — 30.0N 117.2E
MAX持続WINDS – 035 KT、突風045 KT
ONLY OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径
LAND比べて大きな熱帯低気圧AS散逸
36人事POSITへのベクトル:350 DEG / 13 KTS

36 HRS、AT VALID:
141800Z — 32.5N 116.6E
MAX持続WINDS – 020 KT、突風030 KT
ONLY OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径
LAND比べて大きな熱帯低気圧として散逸

備考:
26.3N 119.7E NEAR 130900Z POSITION。
LOCATED TYPHOON 07W(SOULIK)、約87 NM-WEST
北西台北、台湾のは、WEST-北西追跡して
過去半時間以上10ノットで。最大有義波高
130600Z AT 25フィートです。 131500Z、132100Z、140300Z AT NEXT警告
AND 140900Z。/ /
NNNN
台風Soulikの追跡情報

(wunderground.com)

時間ラッツロン風(マイル)ストームタイプ

———————

18 GMT 07/07/13 19.3N 147.3E 35

00 GMT 07/08/13 19.2N 145.7E 45熱帯性低気圧

06 GMT 07/08/13 19.1N 143.7E 50熱帯性低気圧

12 GMT 07/08/13 19.1N 142.6E 65熱帯性低気圧

18 GMT 07/08/13 19.4N 141.5E 75カテゴリ1

00 GMT 07/09/13 19.6N 140.4E 85カテゴリ1

06 GMT 07/09/13 19.9N 139.4E 100カテゴリー2

12 GMT 07/09/13 20.3N 138.1E 110カテゴリー2

18 GMT 07/09/13 20.6N 137.2E 135カテゴリ4

00 GMT 07/10/13 21.1N 135.8E 145カテゴリ4

06 GMT 07/10/13 21.4N 134.6E 145カテゴリ4

12 GMT 07/10/13 21.8N 133.5E 140カテゴリ4

18 GMT 07/10/13 22.0N 132.2E 135カテゴリ4

00 GMT 07/11/13 22.1N 131.0E 120カテゴリ3

06 GMT 07/11/13 22.3N 129.7E 110カテゴリー2

12 GMT 07/11/13 22.4N 128.4E 110カテゴリー2

18 GMT 07/11/13 22.5N 126.9E 110カテゴリー2

00 GMT 07/12/13 22.7N 125.9E 110カテゴリー2

06 GMT 07/12/13 23.2N 124.9E 105カテゴリー2

12 GMT 07/12/13 23.8N 123.8E 100カテゴリー2

18 GMT 07/12/13 24.8N 122.3E 90カテゴリ1

00 GMT 07/13/13 24.7N 120.8E 85カテゴリ1

06 GMT 07/13/13 25.8N 120.1E 80カテゴリ1
TSR logoNW太平洋:7月13日、GMT 2013 6:00に発行したストームの警告

25.8 N 120.1 Eが与えられたリードタイム(s)で、次の可能性(複数可)に土地を打つと予測されている付近に現在位置し台風SOULIK(07W):

レッドアラートカントリー(s)または州(S)
中国
CAT 1以上の確率は、現在100%である
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%
レッドアラート市(s)とタウン(S)
福州(26.1 N、119.3 E)
CAT 1の確率以上では、12時間以内に100%
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%
福安市(27.1 N、119.7 E)
CAT 1の確率以上では、12時間以内に65%である
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%
プーティエン(25.6 N、119.0 E)
CAT 1の確率以上では、12時間以内に40%で
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%

イエローアラートカントリー(s)または州(S)
台湾
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%
イエローアラート市(s)とタウン(S)
金華(29.2 N、120.0 E)
TSの確率は、12時間以内に100%
衢州(29.0 N、119.0 E)
TSの確率は、12時間以内に100%
温嶺(28.4 N、121.4 E)
TSの確率は、12時間以内に100%
温州(27.5 N、120.5 E)
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%
台北(25.0 N、121.5 E)
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%
T’aichung(24.1 N、120.7 E)
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%
泉州(25.0 N、118.5 E)
TSのための確率は現在95%で
蕪湖(31.5 N、118.5 E)
TSのための確率は約24時間で85%
杭州(30.3 N、120.2 E)
TSのための確率は約24時間で75%である
南京(32.0 N、118.8 E)
TSのための確率は約24時間で70%である
合肥(32.0 N、117.0 E)
TSのための確率は約24時間で70%である
漳州(24.5 N、117.8 E)
TSの確率は、12時間以内に55%である

注意してください
レッドアラートは、(重症)CAT 1以上で31%の間と100%の確率である。
イエローアラート(高架)CAT 1以上〜10%と30%の確率、又はTSの間に50%以上の確率である。
CAT 1は、少なくとも毎時74マイルの台風の強さの風、毎時119キロまたは64ノット1分間の持続を意味している。
TSは、少なくとも毎時39マイルの熱帯性低気圧の強さの風を意味し、毎時63キロまたは34ノット1分持続。

グラフィカルな予測情報と詳細についてhttp://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/をご覧くださ&#12356;
台風Soulikは致命的な、嵐映像および予測になる
robspetaによって2013年7月13日に公開

それが上陸として “台風Soulikは200kph以上13梱包風を通じて7月12日に一晩の時間帯に北東部台湾に上陸した。1死傷者が地元メディアによって報告されているこの更新を書いているように、

7HR降雨Accumalation

嵐のために。嵐は福州、中国の雨に向かってクルーズ西に続けて台湾中部の多く打者していきます。右側の画像は、今日の降りてくるどれだけ示しています。いくつかの合計はわずか数時間で500ミリメートルマークかけ登る。これは、水分が終日島への上陸ストリーミングし続けている洪水や地滑りの最大の危険にさらされているこのマップ上の赤と紫の領域である。当社のビデオこれについて話上記の更新と、台湾の出てくる最新情報。

台風嵐の映像

” – westernpacificweather.com
MARITIME
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 131200
WARNING 131200。
VALID 141200警告。
警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。
暴風雨警報。
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1307 SOULIK(1307)990 HPA
26.7N 118.8E AT SOUTH CHINAはNORTHWEST 14ノットMOVING。
良いポジション。
MAXは50ノットの風。
半円300マイル東に49km OVER KNOT風と150マイルの半径
ELSEWHERE。
50マイル半径29.0N 117.2E AT 140000UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF。
998 HPA。
熱帯低気圧となっております。
75マイルの半径31.5N 115.5E AT 141200UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF。
998 HPA。
熱帯低気圧となっております。

気象庁。=
その他のレポート
XiはSW中国地すべり救助活動を要請する

2013年7月13日0時10分19秒新華社ウェブエディタ:興Yihang

“金曜日に中国の社長習近平は、人々は中国南西部の四川省で深刻な地滑りの後に行方不明の探索には努力を惜しまないよう促した。

Xiは新華社、中国中央委員会の共産党の総合事務所が発表した声明によると、政府はまた、犠牲者の家族を支援するために最善を尽くしますと述べた。

継続的かつ深刻な豪雨のため水曜日の朝に行われた地すべりは、金曜日の午後の時点で都江堰市の村で26人が死亡につながっている。別の123人はどちらか欠けている、またはその家族との接触を失っている。

約1,000救助者は生存者の捜索とトラップ村人を避難させるためにサイトに送信されました。

一時的な避難所の数が影響を受けた村人たちとその家族を受け取るように設定されている。

国務院は村で救助作業を監督する専門家チームを派遣しており、声明は述べている。
死者56、四川暴風雨で行方不明178

中国南西部の四川省を叩い豪雨は、少なくとも56人が死亡し、ほぼ180行方不明のままにしています。 240千以上州全体の住民は自宅から余儀なくされている。ここに詳細と写真 ” – cri.cn

RAF Typhoons move to Northolt for Olympics

Wales Air Forum

Royal Air Force Typhoon aircraft have arrived at RAF Northolt ahead of their role providing air security throughout the Olympic Games.

RAF Typhoon aircraft landing at RAF NortholtAn RAF Typhoon aircraft landing at RAF Northolt in West London
[Picture: Senior Aircraftman Gareth Little, Crown Copyright/MOD 2012]

The advanced multi-role fighter jets, which saw active service over Libya, are part of a multi-layered air security plan to protect the London Games, and arrived at RAF Northolt yesterday, Monday 9 July 2012.

The additional security measures build on the RAF’s existing air security arrangements, with RAF Typhoon fighter jets available 24/7 to be scrambled from their bases in Lincolnshire and Scotland to intercept unidentified aircraft.

Personnel and aircrew from RAF Coningsby in Lincolnshire and RAF Leuchars in Scotland have been preparing for their Olympics role for many months, and have already taken part in a series of demanding training missions; working alongside RAF helicopters, ground-based radar controllers and…

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