Kyushu/ Okinawa/ Japan: Typhoon NEOGURI 08W/ FLORITA (=CAT3-SS) 081700Z nr 28.8N 125.7E, moving N at 13 knots (JMA) Leaving Southern Japanese islands, heading toward Kyushu (WestPacWx) – Updated 080714 1830z (UTC)

TYPHOON NEOGURI 1408 (JMA)

(Equivalent to a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) (JTWC)

Typhoon Neoguri is leaving behind the southern Japanese islands Tuesday night and now sets its eyes ahead towards the southern coast of Kyushu.(WestPacWx)

25 People injured in Okinara, 2 died at sea in Western Japan (NHK)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

JMA IS THE LEAD AGENCY IN THIS AREA

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Analysis Chart (CLICK IMAGE FOR ANIMATION/SOURCE)

 

Japan Radar (JMA) Radar and Nowcasts (Precipitation, Thunder, Tornadoes): Japan (CLICK IMAGE FOR ANIMATION/SOURCE)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

CLICK ON IMAGE TO GO TO JMA WARNINGS PAGE

TY 1408 (NEOGURI)
Issued at 17:50 UTC, 8 July 2014

<Analyses at 08/17 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°50′(28.8°)
E125°40′(125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE310km(170NM)
NW170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE700km(375NM)
NW440km(240NM)
<Estimate for 08/18 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N29°00′(29.0°)
E125°40′(125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE310km(170NM)
NW170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE700km(375NM)
NW440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 09/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°30′(30.5°)
E126°10′(126.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area SE350km(190NM)
NW260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 09/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°20′(31.3°)
E127°30′(127.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area SE370km(200NM)
NW310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N31°40′(31.7°)
E132°25′(132.4°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area SE480km(260NM)
NW430km(230NM)
<Forecast for 11/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N34°00′(34.0°)
E138°10′(138.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

SOUTH KOREA

Korea Meteorological Administration

Typhoon

Forecast Chart

No.8 NEOGURI

Issued at(KST) : 2014.07.09. 01:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2014.07.08. 15:00 Analysis 28.3 125.6 945 45 162 400
(W 350)
Very Strong Medium N 22
2014.07.09. 03:00 Forecast 30.5 126.0 955 41 148 360
(WNW 310)
Strong Medium N 21 100
2014.07.09. 15:00 Forecast 31.9 128.0 965 38 137 320
(NW 270)
Strong Medium NE 20 150
2014.07.10. 03:00 Forecast 32.3 130.6 970 36 130 300
(NW 270)
Strong Medium E 20 210
2014.07.10. 15:00 Forecast 33.2 133.5 980 31 112 280
(NW 230)
Normal Small ENE 25 250
2014.07.11. 03:00 Forecast 35.4 137.6 985 27 97 250
(NW 200)
Normal Small ENE 38 325
2014.07.11. 15:00 Forecast 38.5 142.3 990 24 86 230
(NW 180)
Weak Small ENE 45 400
2014.07.12. 15:00 Forecast 45.7 151.1 996 NE 45

�� It is provided only for the typhoon information in progress. The past information could be found in National Typhoon Center homepage.

�� National Typhoon Center Homepage

2014

COMS : 2014/07/09 01:45 (KST)

PHILIPPINES

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Severe Weather Bulletin #6 (FINAL) issued at 10AM July 08, 2014

TY FLORITA is now outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility ( PAR).

At 9AM today, the eye was located @ 610 km NE of Basco, Batanes (25.4N,126.0E), with maximum winds/gustiness:185/220 kph. It is forecast to move North @ 20 kph. It will continue to enhanced the SW monsoon bringing moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over Palawan, Mindoro, Cavite, Batangas, Zambales and Bataan while the rest of Luzon and western Visayas will have occasional rains. Sea travel is risky over the northern, eastern, & southern seaboards of Luzon and the western seaboards of southern Luzon and of Visayas. It is expected to be at 200km Northwest of Okinawa, Japan this evening. PAGASA-DOST

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 081500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 27.8N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 125.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 29.9N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 31.2N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 31.9N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 19 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 33.0N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 22 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 37.7N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 29 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 47.3N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 28.3N 125.8E.
TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 37 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
NNNN

 

Prognostic Reasoning

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jul, 2014 12:00 GMT

 

Typhoon NEOGURI (08W) currently located near 27.8 N 125.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
 Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
  South Korea
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

WestPacWX

Western Japan Braces for Neoguri, Forecast and Impacts

 

Vis Sat

Typhoon Neoguri is leaving behind the southern Japanese islands Tuesday night and now sets its eyes ahead towards the southern coast of Kyushu.

Several thousand residents from the islands southern coastlines have been told to evacuate ahead of Typhoon Neoguri due to the threat of storm surge near the coast and flash flooding farther inland. Heavy rains due to the rainy season front have already saturated the ground here.  In parts of southern Kyushu up to 200mm of rainfall is expected through Wednesday evening.

Winds in the Amani islands off the southern coast of Kyushu could see gust as high as 126kph through Wednesday Evening. 11 meter high waves are expected on the Amani islands.

TCCOR 1 Will likely be issued for the military in Sasebo. If not typhoon warnings via JMA are still in place.

Damaging winds as high as 130kph gusting to 185kph at landfall in Kagoshima is in the forecast by Thursday morning as Typhoon Neoguri makes landfall along the southern Coast of Kyushu as the equivalant of a Category 1 storm. 

These winds will be over a small area though and the bulk of the area will see 90kph sustained winds.

In Kagoshima and Miyazaki up to 400-500mm of rainfall is likely as moisture wraps around Neoguri is pushed on shore in to the mountains of the Western Japan. Flash flooding, landslides and rapid river level rise will be a high threat here.

Even though the storm in Okinawa is very dangerous the overall impact on infrastructure and the risk of flooding and landslides will likely result in more damage across Kyushu despite it being a slightly weaker storm.

Flood Threat in Western Japan

Farther north the rain will be the biggest issue though. Across much of Honshu flooding will be a problem through Friday including in the Tokyo area river level rise will be one of the main threats from this storm.

The rainfall in the Kanto Plain will likely start by Thursday evening and last through Friday as the Center of Neoguri pushes over mainland Japan.

At this time no cancellations of flights in Tokyo have been made but anyone who plans on traveling should be prepared for the risk of delays cancellations.

Expect Neoguri to weaken rapidly over Japan. It will still carry with it a deluge of moisture but the center of circulation will be torn apart over the mountains of Japan.

Tragedy in Kochi

High waves ahead of Neoguri caused a capsize off of Kochi Prefecture in Shikoku resulting in one death on Tuesday. Waves at the time of the capzise were 4 meters high according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Typhoon Neoguri Live Coverage

 The video update is now over, you can watch the playback above, continued updates and new information will be posted below.  For latest track and extended info. go to the tropical information center.  or find us on facebook. Typhoon Neoguri now moving over the southern Japanese islands, max winds reported is up to 191kph. At this

Read More…

Typhoon Neoguri Damage and Impact Information

Typhoon Neoguri now moving over and away from the southern Japanese islands, max winds reported is up to 191kph. At this time 590,000 have been advised to evacuate. On the main island of Okinawa most of these are in the Ginowan area near coastal locations.  Once again with the evacuation advisories, it states. “Authorities are telling them to

Read More…

 

Violent Typhoon Neoguri will blow past Okinawa on Tuesday (Monday Night Update)

Residents in Southern Japan should now be hunkered down and prepared to ride out Typhoon Neoguri as it races north towards Okinawa, Kume-Jima, Miyako-Jima and Ishigaki on Tuesday. PLEASE CHECK BACK IN FOR A LIVE CAST ON OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL Despite the forecast taking the center of the storm west of Okinawa the wind field

Read More…

Violent “Super” Typhoon Neoguri Nears Okinawa, Evacuations in Kyushu Underway

End

Okinawa Emergency Action Guide

American Red Cross Okinawa

Okinawa Red Cross Hospital

Kadena AFB, Okinawa Facebook page

MARITIME

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP31 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1408 NEOGURI (1408) 950 HPA
AT 28.4N 125.7E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 30.5N 126.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 31.3N 127.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 081200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 998 HPA
AT 34N 153E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 142E 43N 142E
51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 37N 180E 36N 170E 39N 167E 39N 155E 40N
142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 42N 162E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 27N 142E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 51N 153E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 55N 170E SSE 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 124E TO 36N 130E 38N 136E 35N 141E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 161E TO 32N 164E 36N 166E 37N 170E 40N 173E
41N 179E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1408 NEOGURI (1408) 945 HPA AT 27.7N 125.7E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

4 thoughts on “Kyushu/ Okinawa/ Japan: Typhoon NEOGURI 08W/ FLORITA (=CAT3-SS) 081700Z nr 28.8N 125.7E, moving N at 13 knots (JMA) Leaving Southern Japanese islands, heading toward Kyushu (WestPacWx) – Updated 080714 1830z (UTC)

  1. Dr. Masters (of wunderground.com) says, “Super Typhoon Neoguri Lashing Okinawa, Headed for Japan –
    The outer spiral bands of Super Typhoon Neoguri are pounding the Japanese Ryukyu Islands, which include Okinawa, as the mighty storm heads north-northwest at 12 mph towards Japan. ”
    More here: http://t.co/uWZbnFwvf2

    Like

  2. Okinawa – Kadena Air Base 1504 UTC:

    TC-1 CAUTION: Winds of 35 knots are occuring. All outdoor activities, except those in direct support of urgent military missions, will be discontinued. The Base Exchange and Commissary close and all non-mission-essential people should be off the streets and in their residences. All AAFES facilities
    close. Pick up children from SAP/CDC’s within one hour of announcement.(SE)

    Kadena Air Base 1504 UTC: It’s TCCOR 1C as of 2355 local according to the command post notification I received a few minutes ago. (ANS)

    Kadena Air Base Facebook Page: https://www.facebook.com/KadenaAirBase

    Like

  3. Okinawa – Kadena Air Base 1321 UTC:

    Ladies and Gentlemen, we are going into TCCOR-1 Recovery as of 2210.

    TC-1 RECOVERY: Destructive sustained winds of 50 knots are no longer occurring. Actual winds are 34-49 knots. No outdoor activity is authorized other than workers from pre-designated emergency crews. TCCOR-1 recovery Mission-Essential Passes, which are issued to mission-essential agencies only, must be in the driver’s possession before attempting to travel on Kadena. Report all damage to Housing Maintenance at 634-4663.

    As a restatement of what is in the above information- unless you are part of a pre-designated emergency crew, do NOT go outside. It’s still dangerous out and we don’t need to exacerbate things.

    Kadena Air Base Facebook Page: https://www.facebook.com/KadenaAirBase

    Like

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