Japan: Typhoon Vongfong 19W 121000Z 29.4N 127.4E, moving N at 12 knots (JMA)

Typhoon Vongfong

(Tropical Storm Vongfong 19W)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1419

TY 1419 (VONGFONG)
Issued at 10:50 UTC, 12 October 2014

<Analyses at 12/10 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N29°25′(29.4°)
E127°25′(127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL700km(375NM)
<Estimate for 12/11 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N29°35′(29.6°)
E127°25′(127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL700km(375NM)
<Forecast for 12/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°05′(30.1°)
E127°55′(127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area NE330km(180NM)
SW280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 12/21 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°00′(31.0°)
E129°00′(129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area NE370km(200NM)
SW310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 13/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N32°00′(32.0°)
E130°55′(130.9°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 45km/h(24kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area SE370km(200NM)
NW330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 13/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N33°30′(33.5°)
E133°25′(133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45km/h(24kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area SE390km(210NM)
NW330km(180NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1914.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/19W_120532sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
120600Z — NEAR 28.9N 127.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 350 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9N 127.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 30.7N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 33.0N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 28 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 36.2N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 32 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 40.0N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 127.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z,
130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Oct, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm VONGFONG (19W) currently located near 28.9 N 127.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0900

WTJP31 RJTD 120900
WARNING 120900.
WARNING VALID 130900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1419 VONGFONG (1419) 965 HPA
AT 29.3N 127.3E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 31.0N 129.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 33.5N 133.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 120600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 990 HPA
AT 32N 169E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 32N 169E TO 32N 173E 30N 177E.
COLD FRONT FROM 32N 169E TO 26N 162E 22N 152E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N 152E TO 23N 145E 26N 140E 30N 135E 31N
129E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 38N 169E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 39N 169E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 1002 HPA
AT 39N 160E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST SLOWLY.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 400
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 998 HPA
AT 56N 139E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 56N 139E TO 54N 145E 50N 147E.
COLD FRONT FROM 56N 139E TO 53N 141E 47N 139E 44N 134E 42N 129E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 33N 133E 34N 137E 30N 140E 27N 140E 27N 137E 28N 134E 33N
133E.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 39N 145E SE 15 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 48N 179E ESE 15 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1419 VONGFONG (1419) 965 HPA AT 28.8N 127.1E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

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