US(TX/LA/MS/TN): Tropical Depression Harvey 31/0300Z update (NHC FL) – Updated 31 Aug 2017 0920z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Harvey

…FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana.

…..catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur,
and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week

 

at201709_5day TD HARVEY WUND

(Image: @wunderground)

at201709_sat TD HARVEY WUND

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

030124_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind TD HARVEY

avn_lalo-animated TD HARVEY

030124WPCQPF_sm rain 31

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

…FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…31.7N 92.3W
ABOUT 30 MI…50 KM NNE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM SE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 92.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the
northeast is expected Thursday or Thursday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Harvey should move through central Louisiana
tonight, then move through northeastern Louisiana and northwestern
Mississippi Thursday and Thursday night, and over the Tennessee
Valley region on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the
adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Tennessee and Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 12
inches. The threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/
Galveston area. However catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur,
and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. The
expected heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into
western Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river
and small stream flooding. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED
AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED
ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for additional information on this
life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into
parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic
through Saturday. These rains may lead to flooding concerns across
these areas.

A list of preliminary rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northwestern and northern
Gulf coast should subside very slowly over the next day or two.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight across parts of
Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Additional
tornadoes are possible on Thursday afternoon and evening across
northern portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and into parts
of Tennessee.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Harvey. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. These advisories will
also continue to be found on the National Hurricane Center website
at hurricanes.gov.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 31METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 300850

WTNT24 KNHC 310254
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES IN SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. PLEASE SEE WARNINGS
AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 92.3W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 92.3W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 92.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.4W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.5N 89.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.9N 87.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.0N 85.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 92.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER
WTNT34 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

 

=============================================================================

000
FZNT24 KNHC 310857
OFFNT4

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

GMZ001-312100-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS…Tropical Depression Harvey is inland over Louisiana.
As Harvey moves farther inland, a ridge will slowly build back
across the Gulf through the remainder of the week before a trough
develops over the western Gulf this weekend. An area of low pressure
could form along this trough over the southwestern Gulf by the
weekend.

$$

GMZ011-312100-
NW Gulf including Stetson Bank-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.TONIGHT…W to NW winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to SE to S. Seas
2 ft or less.
.FRI…S winds less than 5 kt, shifting to NE to E. Seas 2 ft or
less.
.FRI NIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, building to 3 ft in the
afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

GMZ013-312100-
N Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine Sanctuary-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft or
less.
.FRI NIGHT…SW winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to NE to E late. Seas
2 ft or less.
.SAT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN NIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, building to
3 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ015-312100-
NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt S of 27N, and S to SW 10 to 15 kt
elsewhere. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…W winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to SE to S late. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.SAT…SE winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.MON…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

$$

GMZ017-312100-
W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.TONIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

GMZ019-312100-
Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SE to S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt S of 24N, and E to SE 5 to 10 kt
elsewhere. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.FRI…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, building to
3 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt S of 24N, and E 5 to 10 kt
elsewhere. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SAT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

GMZ021-312100-
E Gulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E. Seas 3 ft,
subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.SAT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

GMZ023-312100-
SW Gulf S of 22N W of 94W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft
or less.
.TONIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…N winds 5 to 10 kt S of 21N W of 95W, and NE to E
10 to 15 kt elsewhere. Seas 2 ft or less. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…NE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to NW 5 to 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to W to NW in the
afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to E to SE
late. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

GMZ025-312100-
E Bay of Campeche including Campeche Bank-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning,
subsiding to 2 ft or less. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less,
building to 3 to 4 ft late. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening,
subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.SUN…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

Forecaster GR

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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Gulf of Mexico: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three 20/1200Z nr 25.4N 90.3W, moving NW 08 kt (NHC FL) – Published 20 Jun 2017 1218z (GMT/UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AL03)

(Future TS Cindy)

A Tropical Storm Warning for…Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center FL

000
WTNT33 KNHC 201138
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
700 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

…DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.4N 90.3W
ABOUT 265 MI…430 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 300 MI…485 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* West of Cameron to High Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
25.4 North, longitude 90.3 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through Wednesday, with a turn toward the north expected
Wednesday night or Thursday. On the forecast track, the disturbance
is expected to be near the Louisiana coast late Wednesday or
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the
coast.

Satellite imagery shows that the center of the disturbance is
gradually become better defined, and it is likely that the system
will become a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
NOAA buoy 42001 just reported a pressure of 1000.6 mb (29.54
inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
10 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday
morning. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest
Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday morning.

STORM SURGE: Inundations of 1 to 3 feet are possible along the
coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight
from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 Jun, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm AL03 is currently located near 24.8 N 90.1 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). AL03 is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 35% currently
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
    Houston (29.8 N, 95.4 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201146
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
714 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

The center of Tropical Storm Bret, at 20/1200 UTC, is near 11.1N
63.6W, or about 17 nm to the ENE of La Isla de Margarita of
Venezuela. It is moving WNW westward, 290 degrees, 18 knots. The
maximum wind speeds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 knots. The
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Convective precipitation:
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Caribbean
Sea from 10N to 16N between 60W and 68W. Please read the NHC
Potential Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public
Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC for more details.

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three at 20/1200 UTC,
is near 25.4N 90.3W, about 230 nm to the SSW of the mouth of the
Mississippi River. It is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 8 knots. The
maximum wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. The
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Convective precipitation:
Scattered moderate to strong is in the waters from 26N to 30N
between 83W and 90W, and from 25N south between 83W and 87W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers inland areas
and coastal waters areas from the northern half of Guatemala
into the southern half of the Yucatan Peninsula, including in
the coastal waters of the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Please read the
NHC Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/ Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/35W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
03N to 08N southward between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/45W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, most
probably related to the ITCZ, from 06N to 08N between 40W and
46W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/71W from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
20N to 21N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N southward
between Puerto Rico and 73W.

…MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to
06N33W, and 03N43W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong
from 04N to 12N between 12W and 23W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 01N to 06N between 25W and 31W.

…DISCUSSION…

…THE GULF OF MEXICO…

A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough passes through southern
Louisiana, to a 26N94W cyclonic circulation center, to the Mexico
coast near 25N98W and 20N105W in Mexico. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in much of the
Gulf of Mexico, from 20N northward from 90W westward.

…CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD…

LIFR: none.

IFR: KGRY and KATP.

MVFR: KVQT, KMDJ, and KMIS.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA…

TEXAS: MVFR in McAllen, and in Huntsville. LOUISIANA: occasional
MVFR and areas of light rain from Patterson eastward to Lake
Pontchartain, and southeastward into the SE corner of the state.
MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in Natchez. light rain and LIFR in Pascagoula.
ALABAMA: MVFR and light rain in parts of the Mobile metropolitan
area. drizzle in Gulf Shores. light rain and LIFR in Fort Rucker
and Dothan. FLORIDA: rain, heavy at times, and LIFR conditions,
from Perry westward. LIFR/IFR around the Tampa/St. Petersburg
metropolitan area.

…THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of
the Caribbean Sea, with a 14N68W Caribbean Sea cyclonic
circulation center. Tropical Storm Bret is set to move into the
SE corner of the Caribbean Sea during the next 24 hours.

The Monsoon Trough extends from 09N74W in Colombia, through
Panama, northwestward through Costa Rica, and beyond, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 15N southward from 77W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 20/0000 UTC…according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES…MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC…are 1.06 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.10 in Curacao.

…HISPANIOLA…

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow, from an inverted
trough, is moving across the area. Rainshowers and thunder still
are possible across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS…for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Punta Cana: rain and thunder. VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist
of cyclonic wind flow, with the current N-to-S oriented trough.
Expect southerly wind flow during the first half of day two,
followed by anticyclonic wind flow during the second half of day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that day one will
consist of the rest of the inverted trough moving through the area
completely, during day one. Day one will end with SE wind flow
moving across Hispaniola. Expect SE wind flow during day two, with
an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that day one will consist of SE-to-E wind flow.
Expect cyclonic wind flow with a separate inverted trough, during
day two. Hispaniola will be on the southern side of an E-to-W
oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge.

…THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…

An upper level trough is anchored by a cyclonic circulation
center that is about 770 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico, to a 14N68W
Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation center. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
20N to 21N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N southward
between Puerto Rico and 73W. Rainshowers and thunder still are
possible across Hispaniola.

An upper level trough passes through 32N32W to 21N35W. A cold
front passes through 32N24W to 25N41W and 31N57W. Convective
precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers cover the area that is from 24N northward between 22W
and 60W, and elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward.
Widely scattered moderate is from 29N to 32N between 55W and 58W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US: Dog attack victim, 3, allegedly asked to leave KFC as her scars were ‘disturbing customers’ – Published 160614 1240z

SKY NEWS 6:01am UK, Monday 16 June 2014

KFC ‘Asked Girl To Leave Over Scarred Face’

KFC agrees to pay $30,000 towards the medical bills of Victoria Welcher, who was badly injured in a pitbull attack in April.

Victoria Welcher

A fast food chain has launched an investigation after a three-year-old was allegedly asked to leave a restaurant because her facial injuries were disturbing other customers.

Victoria Welcher, three, was badly injured during an attack by a pit bull dog in April which left her with facial scars and an eye patch.

KFC has said it has launched an investigation after a restaurant employee in Jackson, Mississippi, asked her to leave.

The company said it was also giving $30,000 towards her medical bills.

The allegation was made on Victoria’s Victories, a Facebook page set up to chart the little girl’s recovery after the attack.

A post on the page said: “Last week at KFC in Jackson MS this precious face was asked to leave because her face scared the other diners.”

Kelly Mullins, granny of Victoria Welcher
Kelly Mullins said Victoria now refuses to look in a mirror

KFC spokesman Rick Maynard said: “As soon as we were notified of this report on Friday, we immediately began an investigation, as this kind of hurtful and disrespectful action would not be tolerated by KFC.

“Regardless of the outcome of our investigation, we have apologised to Victoria’s family and are committed to assisting them.

“The company is making a $30,000 donation to assist with her medical bills.”

Victoria’s grandmother Kelly Mullins said they were returning from a doctor’s appointment when they stopped at the KFC.

She told WAPT-TV: “They just told us, they said, ‘we have to ask you to leave because her face is disrupting our customers’.

“She won’t even look in the mirror anymore. When we go to a store, she doesn’t even want to get out of the car.”

Victoria was attacked by pitbulls at her grandfather’s home.

She suffered a broken nose, jaw, cheekbones and right eye socket, lost her right eye and the right side of her face is paralysed, according to her Facebook page.

Source: http://news.sky.com/story/1283024/kfc-asked-girl-to-leave-over-scarred-face

(Video credit: YouTube Videos)

 

Mississippi town evacuated after train derailment spills flammable chemicals

Alternative News & Disaster News

Dozens of families were forced from their southeastern Mississippi homes Friday after a train derailed, tipping over cars carrying fuel oil and methanol and causing officials to grow concerned about another potentially deadly chemical spill.

The Mississippi Department of Motor Vehicles announced that the train, which was traveling from Jackson, Miss. To Mobile, Ala., ran off the tracks at 9 A.M. local time (10 A.M. EST) and that no one was hurt in the incident outside New Augusta.

The approximately 50 people living within a half-mile radius of the accident were evacuated, though, because the train was hauling an ethanol-based product that spilled. Surrounding highways were also shutdown as a precaution because of ethanol’s high flammability. Between 3,000 and 4,000 gallons were spilled, according to local estimates.

“Dozens of families were forced from their southeastern Mississippi homes Friday after a train derailed, tipping over cars carrying fuel oil and methanol…

View original post 131 more words

Mexico/Cuba/US: Tropical Cyclone (Tropical Storm) KAREN 021800Z 25.8N 90.2W, moving NNW at 7.8 knots. Heading for Central Gulf Coast (NHC) – 041013 2045z

Tropical Cyclone (Tropical Storm) KAREN

KAREN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST

 

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

 

Tropical Cyclone Warnings for Cuba and Mexico

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm Surge (Click image for source)

 

Mexico

 

Tropical Cyclone Warning in the Atlantic

 

Aviso Cicln Tropical en el Atlntico

 

Cuba

 

Tropical Cyclone Warning

 

Aviso de Cicln Tropical

 

United States

 

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

 

Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because the information the NHC site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown.

 

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

(Image: NHC)

WTNT32 KNHC 041758
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
100 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

…KAREN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.8N 90.2W
ABOUT 240 MI…385 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 275 MI…445 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY
EARLY SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY…WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO…WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220
KM…MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42001
LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES…50 KM…EAST OF THE CENTER…RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 42 MPH…68 KM/H…AND A WIND GUST OF
54 MPH…86 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB…29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY…1 TO 3 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY…3 TO 5 FT
EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY…1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY…2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY…1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS…WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON
THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT…MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

 

END

 

Other Reports

 

Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog

 

Little Change to Karen; U.S. HIt By a Blizzard, Severe Weather, and Santa Ana Winds

 

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:44 PM GMT on October 04, 2013

 

Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog

Tropical Storm Karen Forms in the Gulf of Mexico
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:09 PM GMT on October 03, 2013

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tropical-storm-karen-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico#qmRpPcwIODi6mrzP.99

 

Tropical Storm Karen is proving resilient in the face of dry air and high wind shear, as the storm heads north-northwest at 10 mph towards Louisiana. A NOAA hurricane hunter plane is in the storm this morning, and found top surface winds near 60 mph and a central pressure of 1001 mb, a pressure 2 mb higher than on Thursday evening. NOAA buoy 42001 located about 60 miles (95 km) north-northeast of the center reported a sustained wind of 38 mph, gusting to 49 mph, at 8:45 am EDT. Satellite loops show that Karen has maintained a vigorous circulation this morning in the face of high wind shear of 25 knots from strong upper-level winds out of the west. These winds have driven dry air from the Western Gulf of Mexico into Karen’s core, making it difficult for heavy thunderstorms to build on the west and south sides of Karen’s center of circulation. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Ocean heat content is 20 – 40 kJ per square centimeter, which is fairly typical for this time of year, and does not increase the odds of rapid intensification. Strong southeasterly winds ahead of Karen are pushing tides about 1 – 1.5′ above normal along most of the Louisiana and Mississippi coast, as seen on our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Karen, taken at approximately 3:30 pm EDT on October 3, 2013. At the time, Karen had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Brooding clouds from Tropical Storm Karen hover over the waters offshore of Cancun, Mexico, at 11 am EDT October 3, 2013. Image credit: Mindy Saylor.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear for the next three days is expected to stay high, around 20 – 30 knots, according to the 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere is quite dry over the Western Gulf of Mexico, and this dry air combined with high wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification possible until landfall. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will bring higher wind shear near 30 knots and turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Saturday. The higher shear, combined with ocean temperatures that will drop to 28°C, may be able to induce weakening, and NHC has sharply reduced its odds of Karen achieving hurricane strength. The 5 am EDT Friday wind probability forecast from NHC put Karen’s best chance of becoming a hurricane as a 23% chance on Sunday at 2 am EDT. This is down from the 41% odds given in Thursday afternoon’s forecast. Most of the models show Karen intensifying by 5 – 10 mb on Saturday afternoon and evening as the storm nears the coast, as the storm interacts with the trough of low pressure turning it to the northeast. This predicted intensification may be because of stronger upper-level outflow developing (due to diverging winds aloft sucking up more air from the surface.) We don’t have much skill making hurricane intensity forecasts, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Karen do the opposite of what the models predict, and decay to a weak tropical storm just before landfall, due to strong wind shear. In any case, residents of New Orleans should feel confident that their levee system will easily withstand any storm surge Karen may generate, as rapid intensification of Karen to a Category 3 or stronger hurricane has a only a minuscule probability of occurring (1% chance in the latest NHC forecast.)

Since Karen is expected to make a sharp course change to the northeast near the time it approaches the south coast of Louisiana, the models show a wide range of possible landfall locations. The European and UKMET models are the farthest west, with a landfall occurring west of New Orleans. The GFS model is at the opposite extreme, showing a landfall about 400 miles to the east, near Apalachicola, Florida. NHC is splitting the difference between these extremes, which is a reasonable compromise. Most of Karen’s heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear when the storm makes landfall, and there will likely be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 – 3″ to the immediate west of where the center. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 – 8″ can be expected to the east. NHC’s 5 am EDT Friday wind probability forecast shows the highest odds of tropical storm-force winds to be at the tip of the Mississippi River at Buras, Louisiana: 66%. New Orleans, Gulfport, Mobile, and Pensacola have odds ranging from 47% – 51%.

Most significant fire threat for Southern California in the past 5 years
A Santa Ana wind event is building over Southern California this morning, where wind gusts in excess of 50 mph have already been observed this morning. From the Los Angeles NWS office:

“Most significant fire weather threat across Southern California in past 5 years as strong Santa Ana wind event unfolds. In addition to the strength of winds being projected…the concerns with this event include the widespread nature and long duration of Santa Ana winds…very long period of single digit humidities…and extremely dry fuels approaching record levels. Red flag warnings are in effect for much of Los Angeles and Ventura counties overnight into Sunday. The onset of the offshore winds are expected to begin across the mountains by late evening…then descend into the lower elevations overnight. The peak of this Santa Ana wind event will likely be late tonight through Saturday morning…with the strongest winds focused across Los Angeles and Ventura counties.”


Figure 3. A moderate risk for severe weather is predicted for this afternoon over Iowa and surrounding states.

A blizzard and a severe weather outbreak in the Midwest
The same low pressure system that is expected to turn Tropical Storm Karen to the northeast this weekend is hammering the Midwest with a variety of extreme weather today. Blizzard warnings are flying in Wyoming, Nebraska, and South Dakota from the storm, and a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes is expected over much of Iowa this afternoon. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has done some research to see the last time a blizzard, major severe weather outbreak, tropical storm, and extreme fire danger all threatened the U.S. at the same time, and has not been able to find such an event in past history.

Portlight disaster relief charity ready to respond to Karen
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, are ready to respond to Tropical Storm Karen, if they are needed. You can check out their progress on the Portlight Blog or donate to Portlight’s disaster relief fund at the portlight.org website.

I’ll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Jeff Masters WunderBlog

 

Hurricane Watches are flying along the U.S. Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen heads north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed about 8 am EDT Thursday in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Its not often that one sees a new storm start out with 60 mph sustained winds, but thats what an Air Force hurricane hunter plane found this morning near 7:30 am EDT, when they sampled the northern portion of the storm. A ship located about 50 miles northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula measured sustained winds of 51 mph near the same time. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm with an area of very intense thunderstorms along its northern and eastern flanks. Wind shear has risen since Wednesday, and is now a moderately high 20 knots, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west-southwest. These strong winds are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the west side of Karens center of circulation, by driving dry air that is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Gulf of Mexico into Karens core. As a result, Karen has a lopsided comma-shape on satellite imagery. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, though, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Between 7 am and 9:30 am EDT the Hurricane Hunters made three passes though the center of Karen, and the central pressure stayed roughly constant at 1004 mb, so Karen is not undergoing much change.
Figure 1. Odds of receiving more than 4″ of rain over a five-day period beginning at 2 am EDT Thursday October 3, 2013, as predicted by the experimental GFDL ensemble model.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear will steadily increase as the storm heads north-northwest, and shear will reach a high 25 knots by Saturday morning as Karen closes in on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere will grow drier as Karen moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification likely through Friday. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday evening and Saturday morning. The higher shear at that time should be able to induce weakening, and the 8 am EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave a 28% chance Karen will be a hurricane at 2 am EDT Saturday, down from 44% on Friday afternoon. Most of the models predict landfall will occur along the western Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon or evening. The usually reliable European model has Karen making landfall over Eastern Louisiana, though. If Karen does follow this more westerly path, the storm will be weaker, since there is more dry air and higher wind shear to the west. Since almost all of Karens heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear, there will be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 3″ to the immediate west of where the center makes landfall. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 8″ can be expected to the east. To judge the possibilities of receiving tropical storm-force winds at your location, I recommend using the NHC wind probability forecast. The highest odds of tropical storm-force winds (45 55%) are along the coast from Buras, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Florida.

Ill have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tropical-storm-karen-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico#qmRpPcwIODi6mrzP.99

 

Hurricane Watches are flying along the U.S. Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen heads north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed about 8 am EDT Thursday in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Its not often that one sees a new storm start out with 60 mph sustained winds, but thats what an Air Force hurricane hunter plane found this morning near 7:30 am EDT, when they sampled the northern portion of the storm. A ship located about 50 miles northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula measured sustained winds of 51 mph near the same time. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm with an area of very intense thunderstorms along its northern and eastern flanks. Wind shear has risen since Wednesday, and is now a moderately high 20 knots, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west-southwest. These strong winds are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the west side of Karens center of circulation, by driving dry air that is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Gulf of Mexico into Karens core. As a result, Karen has a lopsided comma-shape on satellite imagery. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, though, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Between 7 am and 9:30 am EDT the Hurricane Hunters made three passes though the center of Karen, and the central pressure stayed roughly constant at 1004 mb, so Karen is not undergoing much change.
Figure 1. Odds of receiving more than 4″ of rain over a five-day period beginning at 2 am EDT Thursday October 3, 2013, as predicted by the experimental GFDL ensemble model.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear will steadily increase as the storm heads north-northwest, and shear will reach a high 25 knots by Saturday morning as Karen closes in on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere will grow drier as Karen moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification likely through Friday. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday evening and Saturday morning. The higher shear at that time should be able to induce weakening, and the 8 am EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave a 28% chance Karen will be a hurricane at 2 am EDT Saturday, down from 44% on Friday afternoon. Most of the models predict landfall will occur along the western Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon or evening. The usually reliable European model has Karen making landfall over Eastern Louisiana, though. If Karen does follow this more westerly path, the storm will be weaker, since there is more dry air and higher wind shear to the west. Since almost all of Karens heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear, there will be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 3″ to the immediate west of where the center makes landfall. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 8″ can be expected to the east. To judge the possibilities of receiving tropical storm-force winds at your location, I recommend using the NHC wind probability forecast. The highest odds of tropical storm-force winds (45 55%) are along the coast from Buras, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Florida.

Ill have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tropical-storm-karen-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico#qmRpPcwIODi6mrzP.99

 

Hurricane Watches are flying along the U.S. Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen heads north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed about 8 am EDT Thursday in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Its not often that one sees a new storm start out with 60 mph sustained winds, but thats what an Air Force hurricane hunter plane found this morning near 7:30 am EDT, when they sampled the northern portion of the storm. A ship located about 50 miles northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula measured sustained winds of 51 mph near the same time. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm with an area of very intense thunderstorms along its northern and eastern flanks. Wind shear has risen since Wednesday, and is now a moderately high 20 knots, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west-southwest. These strong winds are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the west side of Karens center of circulation, by driving dry air that is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Gulf of Mexico into Karens core. As a result, Karen has a lopsided comma-shape on satellite imagery. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, though, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Between 7 am and 9:30 am EDT the Hurricane Hunters made three passes though the center of Karen, and the central pressure stayed roughly constant at 1004 mb, so Karen is not undergoing much change.
Figure 1. Odds of receiving more than 4″ of rain over a five-day period beginning at 2 am EDT Thursday October 3, 2013, as predicted by the experimental GFDL ensemble model.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear will steadily increase as the storm heads north-northwest, and shear will reach a high 25 knots by Saturday morning as Karen closes in on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere will grow drier as Karen moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification likely through Friday. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday evening and Saturday morning. The higher shear at that time should be able to induce weakening, and the 8 am EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave a 28% chance Karen will be a hurricane at 2 am EDT Saturday, down from 44% on Friday afternoon. Most of the models predict landfall will occur along the western Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon or evening. The usually reliable European model has Karen making landfall over Eastern Louisiana, though. If Karen does follow this more westerly path, the storm will be weaker, since there is more dry air and higher wind shear to the west. Since almost all of Karens heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear, there will be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 3″ to the immediate west of where the center makes landfall. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 8″ can be expected to the east. To judge the possibilities of receiving tropical storm-force winds at your location, I recommend using the NHC wind probability forecast. The highest odds of tropical storm-force winds (45 55%) are along the coast from Buras, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Florida.

Ill have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tropical-storm-karen-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico#qmRpPcwIODi6mrzP.99

 

Hurricane Watches are flying along the U.S. Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen heads north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed about 8 am EDT Thursday in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Its not often that one sees a new storm start out with 60 mph sustained winds, but thats what an Air Force hurricane hunter plane found this morning near 7:30 am EDT, when they sampled the northern portion of the storm. A ship located about 50 miles northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula measured sustained winds of 51 mph near the same time. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm with an area of very intense thunderstorms along its northern and eastern flanks. Wind shear has risen since Wednesday, and is now a moderately high 20 knots, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west-southwest. These strong winds are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the west side of Karens center of circulation, by driving dry air that is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Gulf of Mexico into Karens core. As a result, Karen has a lopsided comma-shape on satellite imagery. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, though, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Between 7 am and 9:30 am EDT the Hurricane Hunters made three passes though the center of Karen, and the central pressure stayed roughly constant at 1004 mb, so Karen is not undergoing much change.
Figure 1. Odds of receiving more than 4″ of rain over a five-day period beginning at 2 am EDT Thursday October 3, 2013, as predicted by the experimental GFDL ensemble model.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear will steadily increase as the storm heads north-northwest, and shear will reach a high 25 knots by Saturday morning as Karen closes in on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere will grow drier as Karen moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification likely through Friday. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday evening and Saturday morning. The higher shear at that time should be able to induce weakening, and the 8 am EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave a 28% chance Karen will be a hurricane at 2 am EDT Saturday, down from 44% on Friday afternoon. Most of the models predict landfall will occur along the western Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon or evening. The usually reliable European model has Karen making landfall over Eastern Louisiana, though. If Karen does follow this more westerly path, the storm will be weaker, since there is more dry air and higher wind shear to the west. Since almost all of Karens heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear, there will be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 3″ to the immediate west of where the center makes landfall. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 8″ can be expected to the east. To judge the possibilities of receiving tropical storm-force winds at your location, I recommend using the NHC wind probability forecast. The highest odds of tropical storm-force winds (45 55%) are along the coast from Buras, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Florida.

Ill have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tropical-storm-karen-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico#qmRpPcwIODi6mrzP.99

 

MARITIME

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

 

AXNT20 KNHC 041804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN AT 04/1800 UTC IS NEAR 25.8N
90.2W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 208 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER…AND ABOUT 240 NM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ABOUT KAREN THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER
WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2…AND THE
FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER
WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. A HURRICANE
WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS
OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 04/1200 UTC…ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES…MIATPTPAN…
IS 0.49 IN MERIDA MEXICO.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N44W 15N47W 10N49W…
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE…TO
LOCALLY STRONG…FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURVES ALONG 18N52W 16N56W…TO
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N57W. THE WAVE WAS
REPOSITIONED IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N49W 24N50W…TO A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N51W. THIS TROUGH IS ENERGY THAT
IS RELATED TO THE 18N52W 14N57W TROPICAL WAVE…THAT WAS
STRETCHED OUT ALONG A NORTH-TO-SOUTH AXIS AT LEAST 24 HOURS AGO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 25N
BETWEEN 45W AND 52W.

…THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W 8N20W 8N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N25W TO 5N35W
AND 5N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N
TO 7N BETWEEN 12W AND 13W…FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 16W AND 17W…
FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W…AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN
42W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N TO THE
EAST OF 50W.

…DISCUSSION…

THE GULF OF MEXICO…

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY COVERS PRACTICALLY ALL THE GULF OF MEXICO AREA THAT IS
TO THE WEST OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL
STORM KAREN. THE EXCEPTION IS THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS TO
THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE EAST OF 96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO…
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N
TO THE WEST OF 70W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W…

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGBK…
KVBS…KDLP…AND AT KEIR. LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE ICAO STATION KSPR. ICAO STATION KATP IS REPORTING A
VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES AND HAZE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR
LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA.

BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS…
IN VICTORIA AND PORT LAVACA…IN GALVESTON AND IN BEAUMONT/PORT
ARTHUR…SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS COVER THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAIN COVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA…AND IN COASTAL ALABAMA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF MARY
ESTHER…LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE CLOUD CEILINGS IN TALLAHASSEE AND
PERRY FLORIDA…BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE AT THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN
AIRPORT AND AT THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST…MIAHSFAT2…AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST…MIAOFFNT4…FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL
STORM KAREN.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…ACROSS HISPANIOLA…INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA…

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N67W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 27N67W CYCLONIC CENTER TO
23N68W…ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…TO
15N73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO
22N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W…AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE
SURROUNDED BY CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH
FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 30 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD AS
THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 500 MB AND FOR 250 MB SHOWS SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL
CUT ACROSS THE AREA AND COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
OR SO.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO…
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N
TO THE WEST OF 70W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 59W/60W FROM 16N TO
22N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS OR LESS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W. THIS FEATURE IS JUST
OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N73W IN COLOMBIA…TO 11N80W IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA…BEYOND 10N86W IN
COSTA RICA…INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 70W AND
81W AT 04/0915 UTC HAS WEAKENED COMPARATIVELY. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 67W AND
85W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO…
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N
TO THE WEST OF 70W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE
27N67W CYCLONIC CENTER. THE EXCEPTION IS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N67W TO
26N73W TO 23N78W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO
28N49W AND 25N49W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 250 NM
TO 400 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH.

A WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N36W TO 25N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION
ELSEWHERE FROM 19N TO 28N BETWEEN 32W AND 42W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 31N24W TO 25N31W…TO 29N47W…TO 32N55W…AND
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N66W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST…MIAHSFAT2…FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 48-HOUR FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO
THE WEST OF 77W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

High Seas Forecast (Tropical Atlantic)FZNT02 KNHC 041532
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 04.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 05.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 06.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TROPICAL STORM KAREN AT 25.6N 90.2W 1003 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 04
MOVING N-NW OR 330 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 GUSTS
55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT…
110 NM SE QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 20
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS TO
33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 27.7N 90.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT…90 NM SE QUADRANT…30 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
120 NM E AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE
N OF 25N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W WINDS TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 29.8N 88.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 55 GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT…120 NM SE QUADRANT…40 NM SW
QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
150 NM E AND 75 NM W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE
N OF 27N FROM 85 TO 90 WINDS TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL KAREN NEAR 33.5N
83.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 25 GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC 48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N W OF 77W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

END

 

Spanish (Translated by Google)

 

Cicln Tropical ( Tropical Storm ) KAREN

KAREN DENOMINACIN DE LA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO

UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* GRAND ISLE- LOUISIANA A OESTE DE DESTIN FLORIDA

AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* MORGAN ciudad de Luisiana hasta la desembocadura del ro Perla

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS
* LAGO MAUREPAS
* Lago Pontchartrain
* DESTIN DE INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

Avisos de Ciclones Tropicales para Cuba y Mxico

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Satlite ( imagen Pica para la fuente )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Previsin de 5 das ( Click en la imagen para la fuente )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Storm Surge ( Click en la imagen para la fuente )

Mxico

Advertencia cicln tropical en el Atlntico

Aviso Cicln Tropical en el Atlntico

Cuba

Cicln Tropical Advertencia

Aviso de Cicln Tropical

Estados Unidos

El tiempo Nacional ServiceNational Hurricane Center

Debido al cierre del gobierno federal , NOAA.gov y sitios web ms relacionados estn disponibles. Sin embargo, como es necesario para proteger la vida y la propiedad de la informacin que el sitio ofrece NHC , se actualiza y se mantiene durante el cierre del gobierno federal.

[ Imagen de la prediccin de 5 das y las zonas costeras bajo una advertencia o un reloj ]

(Imagen: NHC )

WTNT32 TJSJ 041758
TCPSP2

BOLETN
TORMENTA TROPICAL KAREN INTERMEDIA NUMERO 6A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL122013
100 PM CDT vie 04 de octubre 2013

… KAREN DENOMINACIN DE LA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO …

RESUMEN DE LAS 100 PM CDT … 1800 UTC … INFORMACIN
———————————————-
UBICACIN … 25.8N 90.2W
ACERCA DE MI 240 … 385 KM SSW DE LA BOCA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI
ACERCA DE MI 275 … 445 KM SSE DE MORGAN City Louisiana
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 50 MPH … 85 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … NNW O 335 GRADOS A 9 MPH … 15 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 1003 MB … 29.62 PULGADAS

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——————–
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

NINGUNO.

RESUMEN DE LOS RELOJES Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* GRAND ISLE- LOUISIANA A OESTE DE DESTIN FLORIDA

AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* MORGAN ciudad de Luisiana hasta la desembocadura del ro Perla

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS
* LAGO MAUREPAS
* Lago Pontchartrain
* DESTIN DE INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES
DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA . LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SE PUEDE CAMBIAR A A
VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL O AVISO MAS TARDE HOY .

AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS .

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA … GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 48 HORAS.

INTERESES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORESTE DEL GOLFO DE
MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE KAREN .

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … INCLUYENDO POSIBLES
RELOJES Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA … FAVOR DE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR
SU LOCAL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA OFICINA DE PRONOSTICOS .

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
——————————
AT 100 PM CDT … 1800 UTC … EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL Karen
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.8 NORTE … LONGITUD 90.2 OESTE . KAREN ES
MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE – NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH … 15 KM / H. UN GIRO
HACIA EL NORTE Y UNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE AVANCE SE ESPERAN POR
TEMPRANO EL SABADO . UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE SE ESPERA EN
Domingo … CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE AVANCE . EN LA PREVISIN
TRAYECTORIA … EL ​​CENTRO DE KAREN SE ESPERA QUE ESTAR CERCA DE LA COSTA DENTRO
EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL REA DE SBADO POR LA NOCHE .

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH … 85 KM / H…WITH SUPERIOR
RAFAGAS . POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD SE ESPERA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS
SO … CON ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE Sbado noche, domingo .

VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS … 220
KM … MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO . NOAA BOYA 42001
Situado a unos 35 MILLAS … 50 KM … AL ESTE DEL CENTRO … Recientemente
REPORTE UN VIENTO SOSTENIDO DE 42 MPH … 68 KM / H…AND UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE
54 MPH … 86 KM / H.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES 1003 MB … 29.62 PULGADAS.

RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
———————-
VIENTO … CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DE PARTES DE LA
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL zona el sbado . CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON
POSIBLE EN PARTES DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DEL DOMINGO POR LA MAANA .

MAREJADA … LA COMBINACIN DE marejada y la marea CAUSAR
REAS normalmente secas cerca de la costa que se inund por las aguas en aumento.
El agua podra llegar a las siguientes alturas sobre suelo si el
SURGE PICO SE PRODUCE EN EL MOMENTO DE MAREA ALTA …

Al oeste del Mississippi River a Terrebonne Bay … 1 A 3 PIES
BOCA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI AL Mobile Bay … 3 A 5 FT
AL ESTE DE LA BAHA DE MVIL AL OESTE DE baha de Apalache … 1 a 3 pies
Baha de Apalache INCLUYENDO Cedar Key … 2 A 4 FT
SUR DE BAHA APALACHEE a Tampa Bay … 1 a 2 FT

EL AGUA MS ALTO SE PRODUCE POR LA COSTA INMEDIATA CERCA Y AL
AL ESTE DE DONDE SE PRODUCE TIERRA … DONDE LA MAREJADA ESTARA
ACOMPAADO POR OLAS PELIGROSAS . INUNDACIONES SURGE RELACIONADA DEPENDE
LA DISTRIBUCIN RELATIVA DE LA SURGE Y EL CICLO DE MAREA … y puede variar
Mucho en distancias cortas. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU
AREA … FAVOR CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU TIEMPO LOCAL NACIONAL
OFICINA DE SERVICIO .

LLUVIA … KAREN SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A ​​6
PULGADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DEL CENTRO Y ESTE DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO A TRAVES
DOMINGO POR LA NOCHE … PRINCIPALMENTE CERCA Y AL DERECHO DE LA RUTA DE LA
CENTER . CANTIDADES AISLADAS TOTALES DE 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES .

SIGUIENTE AVISO
————-
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA … 400 PM CDT .

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR CRESTA

FIN

Otros informes

Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog

Poco cambio de Karen , EE.UU. golpeado por una tormenta de nieve , tiempo severo , y Santa Ana Vientos

Publicado por : Dr. Jeff Masters , 13:44 GMT del 04 de octubre 2013

Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog

La tormenta tropical Karen se forma en el Golfo de Mxico
Publicado por : Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:09 GMT del 03 de octubre 2013

Obtenga ms informacin en

” La tormenta tropical Karen est demostrando ser resistente frente de aire seco y cortante de vientos fuertes , ya que la tormenta se dirige al norte -noroeste a 10 mph hacia Louisiana. Un avin cazador de huracanes de NOAA es en la tormenta esta maana, y encontr los mejores vientos cerca de la superficie de 60 mph y una presin central de 1001 mb , una presin superior a 2 mb en la noche del jueves . Boya de NOAA 42001 Situado a unos 60 millas ( 95 km) al norte -noreste del centro reportaron vientos sostenidos de 38 mph con rachas de hasta 49 kilmetros por hora, a las 8:45 am EDT. Bucles de satlite muestran que Karen ha mantenido una vigorosa circulacin esta maana frente a la cizalladura del viento mximo de 25 nudos de fuertes vientos de nivel superior fuera del oeste. Estos vientos han impulsado aire seco desde el oeste del Golfo de Mxico en el ncleo de Karen, lo que dificulta a fuertes tormentas que se apoye en los lados oeste y sur del centro de la circulacin de Karen. Karen tiene un canal de salida de nivel superior fuerte para el norte que est ayudando a ventilar la tormenta, y la temperatura de los ocanos son una muy clida 29 C ( 84 bis F). Contenido de calor del ocano es 20 – 40 kJ por centmetro cuadrado, lo que es bastante tpico para esta poca del ao , y no aumenta las probabilidades de una rpida intensificacin. Vientos del sureste fuertes delante de Karen estn presionando mareas cerca de 1 – 1.5 ‘ encima de lo normal a lo largo de la mayor parte de la costa de Louisiana y Mississippi, como se ve en nuestra WunderMap con la capa de la marejada encendido.

Figura 1 . Imagen de satlite MODIS de la tormenta tropical Karen , tomada aproximadamente a las 3:30 pm EDT del 3 de octubre de 2013. En ese momento, Karen tena vientos mximos de 65 mph. Crdito de la imagen : NASA .

Figura 2 . Empollamiento nubes de la tormenta tropical Karen flotar sobre las aguas en alta mar de Cancn, Mxico , a las 11 horas EDT 03 de octubre 2013 . Crdito de la imagen : Mindy Saylor .

Prediccin para Karen
Se espera cizalladura del viento para los prximos tres das se mantengan altos , alrededor de 20 a 30 nudos , segn el pronstico del modelo am EDT 8 BUQUES . El ambiente es muy seco sobre el oeste del Golfo de Mxico , y este aire seco combinado con alta cizalladura del viento retardar el desarrollo , por lo que slo es lento intensificacin posible hasta tocar tierra. Un canal de baja presin y un frente fro asociado se mueve a travs de Louisiana el sbado, y los vientos del oeste en los niveles altos asociados traer mayor cizalladura del viento cerca de 30 nudos y gire Karen ms al noreste , ya que se acerca a la costa el sbado . La cizalla superior, combinado con temperaturas ocenicas que se reducir a 28 C, puede ser capaz de inducir debilitamiento y NHC ha reducido drsticamente sus probabilidades de Karen alcanzar la categora de huracn . El 05 a.m. Viernes Pronstico probabilidad viento EDT del NHC puso mejor oportunidad de convertirse en un huracn como una oportunidad de 23 % el domingo a las 2 am EDT de Karen. Esto est por debajo de los 41 % de probabilidad que figuran en el pronstico de la tarde del jueves . La mayora de los modelos muestran Karen intensificando a 5 – 10 mb en el sbado por la tarde y por la noche mientras la tormenta se acerca a la costa , mientras la tormenta interacta con el canal de girar hacia el noreste de baja presin. Esta intensificacin prevista puede ser causa de salida de nivel superior ms fuerte desarrollo (debido a la divergencia de los vientos en altura chupando ms aire de la superficie. ) No tenemos mucha habilidad haciendo pronsticos de intensidad de huracanes , as que no me sorprendera ver a Karen hacer lo contrario de lo que los modelos predicen , y la decadencia de una dbil tormenta tropical antes de tocar tierra, debido a la fuerte cizalladura del viento . En cualquier caso , los residentes de Nueva Orleans deben sentirse seguros de que su sistema de diques puede soportar fcilmente cualquier marejada Karen puede generar , como la rpida intensificacin de Karen a una categora 3 o ms fuerte huracn tiene slo una probabilidad nfima de ocurrencia ( probabilidad del 1% en las ltimas previsiones NHC ).

Dado que se espera que Karen para hacer un cambio de rumbo brusco hacia el noreste , cerca de la hora que se aproxima a la costa sur de Louisiana, los modelos muestran una amplia gama de posibles ubicaciones recalada . Los modelos europeos y UKMET son el oeste ms lejano , con un avistamiento de tierra que ocurren al oeste de Nueva Orleans. El modelo GFS se encuentra en el extremo opuesto , mostrando un avistamiento de tierra a unos 400 kilmetros al este, cerca de Apalachicola , Florida. NHC es dividir la diferencia entre estos dos extremos , que es un compromiso razonable . La mayor parte de las fuertes tormentas de Karen se desplazar al este con alta cizalladura del viento cuando la tormenta toque tierra , y es probable que haya precipitaciones relativamente bajas totales de 1 – . 3 ” inmediatamente al oeste de donde el centro de lluvias mucho mayores totales de 4 – 8 ” se puede esperar que este. 05 a.m. EDT Viernes Pronstico probabilidad viento del NHC muestra las probabilidades ms altas de los vientos de tormenta tropical para estar en la punta del ro Mississippi en Buras , Louisiana : 66 %. Nueva Orleans , Gulfport , Mobile y Pensacola han probabilidades que van desde 47 % – 51 %.

Amenaza de incendio ms importante para el sur de California en los ltimos 5 aos
Un evento de viento de Santa Ana est construyendo sobre el sur de California esta maana, cuando ya se han observado las rfagas de viento de ms de 50 mph de esta maana. Desde la oficina de NWS Los Angeles :

” Amenaza de tiempo incendios ms importantes en el sur de California en los ltimos 5 aos como un fuerte viento de Santa Ana evento se desarrolla. Adems de la fuerza de los vientos que se proyecta … las preocupaciones con este evento incluyen el carcter generalizado y de larga duracin de los vientos de Santa Ana . .. muy largo perodo de humedades de un solo dgito … y combustibles extremadamente secos llegan a niveles rcord. advertencias banderas rojas estn en vigor durante gran parte de los condados de Ventura durante la noche hasta el domingo en Los Angeles y . se espera que el inicio de los vientos hacia el mar para iniciar a travs de la montaas por la noche tarde … y luego descienden en las elevaciones ms bajas durante la noche. El pico de este evento de viento de Santa Ana probable que sea tarde esta noche hasta el sbado por la maana … con los vientos ms fuertes se centraron en los condados de los Angeles y Ventura . ”

Figura 3 . Un riesgo moderado de tiempo severo se pronostica para esta tarde sobre Iowa y estados vecinos .

Una tormenta de nieve y un brote de mal tiempo en el Medio Oeste
El mismo sistema de baja presin que se espera que pase a la tormenta tropical Karen en el noreste de este fin de semana est martillando el Medio Oeste con una variedad de condiciones climticas extremas hoy. Advertencias de Blizzard estn volando en Wyoming , Nebraska y Dakota del Sur de la tormenta , y un brote importante de tormentas severas con algunos tornados se espera que en la mayor parte de Iowa esta tarde. Wunderground tiempo historiador Christopher C. Burt ha hecho algunas investigaciones para ver la ltima vez que una tormenta de nieve , el mayor brote de mal tiempo , tormenta tropical, y el peligro extremo de incendio todos los amenazados los EE.UU. , al mismo tiempo, y no ha sido capaz de encontrar un evento en la historia pasada .

Portillo desastre caridad alivio listo para responder a Karen
La organizacin de socorro Portlight.org , fundada e integrada por miembros de la comunidad Wunderground , estn listos para responder a la tormenta tropical Karen , si son necesarios . Usted puede comprobar fuera de su progreso en el Blog Portillo o donar al fondo de ayuda humanitaria de Portillo en el sitio web portlight.org .

Voy a tener un nuevo puesto esta tarde.

Jeff Masters

” – Jeff Masters WunderBlog

Huracn relojes estn volando a lo largo de la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. como la tormenta tropical Karen dirige hacia el norte -noroeste hacia el Golfo de Mxico . Karen , la undcima tormenta con nombre de la temporada de huracanes del Atlntico 2013 , se form alrededor de 8 am EDT el jueves en el sudeste del Golfo de Mxico . No es frecuente que se ve una nueva tormenta empiezan con vientos sostenidos de 60 mph , pero eso es lo que un avin cazador de huracanes Fuerza Area encontr esta maana cerca de las 7:30 am EDT , cuando se tomaron muestras de la parte norte de la tormenta. Un barco se encuentra a unos 50 kilmetros al noreste de la punta noreste de la Pennsula de Yucatn midi vientos sostenidos de 51 mph cerca al mismo tiempo. Bucles de satlite muestran que Karen es una tormenta de tamao medio con una zona de tormentas muy intensas a lo largo de sus flancos norte y este . La cizalladura del viento ha aumentado desde el mircoles, y ahora es una moderadamente alta 20 nudos , gracias a los fuertes vientos de nivel superior desde el oeste -suroeste . Estos vientos fuertes se mantienen las fuertes tormentas se desarrolle en el lado oeste del centro de la circulacin de Karen, por la conduccin de aire seco que es la Pennsula de Yucatn y el oeste del Golfo de Mxico en el ncleo de Karen. Como resultado , Karen tiene una coma en forma desigual en las imgenes satelitales . Karen tiene un canal de salida de nivel superior fuerte para el norte que est ayudando a ventilar la tormenta, sin embargo, y las temperaturas ocenicas son un muy clido 29 C ( 84 bis F). Entre las 7 am y las 09:30 am EDT los Hurricane Hunters hicieron tres pases , aunque el centro de Karen , y la presin central permanecieron ms o menos constantes en 1004 mb , por lo que Karen no est pasando por muchos cambios.

Figura 1 . Las probabilidades de recibir ms de 4 ” de la lluvia en un perodo de cinco das a partir de las 02 a.m. EDT jueves 3 de octubre de 2013, segn lo predicho por el modelo GFDL conjunto experimental .

Prediccin para Karen
La cizalladura del viento aumentar constantemente mientras la tormenta se dirige al norte -noroeste , y de corte alcanzar un mximo de 25 nudos por la maana del sbado como Karen se acerca a la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. , segn el ltimo pronstico del modelo BUQUES . El ambiente crecer ms seco que Karen se mueve en el norte del Golfo de Mxico , y el aire ms seco combinado con el aumento de la cizalladura del viento retardar el desarrollo , por lo que slo la intensificacin lento probablemente a viernes. Un canal de baja presin y un frente fro asociado se mueve a travs de Louisiana el sbado, y los vientos del oeste en los niveles altos asociados ser capaz de convertir Karen ms al noreste , ya que se acerca a la costa en la noche del viernes y la maana del sbado . Cuanto ms alto cizallamiento en ese momento debe ser capaz de inducir debilitamiento y el 08 a.m. EDT Jueves probabilidad previsin de viento de NHC dio un 28 % de posibilidades de Karen ser un huracn a las 2 am EDT Sbado , frente al 44 % el viernes por la tarde . La mayora de los modelos predicen que toc tierra ocurrir a lo largo de la Florida Panhandle sbado por la tarde o por la noche occidental. El modelo europeo generalmente fiable Karen ha de tocar tierra sobre Luisiana del Este, sin embargo. Si Karen no seguir este camino ms hacia el oeste , la tormenta ser ms dbil, ya que no hay aire ms seco y ms alta cizalladura del viento del oeste. Dado que casi todos los grandes tormentas de Karen se desplazar al este con alta cizalladura del viento, habr precipitaciones relativamente bajas totales de 1-3 “, inmediatamente al oeste de donde el centro toque tierra . Mucho mayores totales de lluvia de 4-8 ” se puede esperar que este. Para juzgar las posibilidades de recibir los vientos de tormenta tropical en su ubicacin, le recomiendo usar el pronstico del NHC probabilidad viento. Las probabilidades ms altas de vientos de tormenta tropical ( 45 – 55 % ) estn a lo largo de la costa de Buras , Louisiana , a Pensacola , Florida.

Voy a tener un nuevo puesto esta tarde.

Jeff Masters
Obtenga ms informacin en

Huracn relojes estn volando a lo largo de la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. como la tormenta tropical Karen dirige hacia el norte -noroeste hacia el Golfo de Mxico . Karen , la undcima tormenta con nombre de la temporada de huracanes del Atlntico 2013 , se form alrededor de 8 am EDT el jueves en el sudeste del Golfo de Mxico . No es frecuente que se ve una nueva tormenta empiezan con vientos sostenidos de 60 mph , pero eso es lo que un avin cazador de huracanes Fuerza Area encontr esta maana cerca de las 7:30 am EDT , cuando se tomaron muestras de la parte norte de la tormenta. Un barco se encuentra a unos 50 kilmetros al noreste de la punta noreste de la Pennsula de Yucatn midi vientos sostenidos de 51 mph cerca al mismo tiempo. Bucles de satlite muestran que Karen es una tormenta de tamao medio con una zona de tormentas muy intensas a lo largo de sus flancos norte y este . La cizalladura del viento ha aumentado desde el mircoles, y ahora es una moderadamente alta 20 nudos , gracias a los fuertes vientos de nivel superior desde el oeste -suroeste . Estos vientos fuertes se mantienen las fuertes tormentas se desarrolle en el lado oeste del centro de la circulacin de Karen, por la conduccin de aire seco que es la Pennsula de Yucatn y el oeste del Golfo de Mxico en el ncleo de Karen. Como resultado , Karen tiene una coma en forma desigual en las imgenes satelitales . Karen tiene un canal de salida de nivel superior fuerte para el norte que est ayudando a ventilar la tormenta, sin embargo, y las temperaturas ocenicas son un muy clido 29 C ( 84 bis F). Entre las 7 am y las 09:30 am EDT los Hurricane Hunters hicieron tres pases , aunque el centro de Karen , y la presin central permanecieron ms o menos constantes en 1004 mb , por lo que Karen no est pasando por muchos cambios.

Figura 1 . Las probabilidades de recibir ms de 4 ” de la lluvia en un perodo de cinco das a partir de las 02 a.m. EDT jueves 3 de octubre de 2013, segn lo predicho por el modelo GFDL conjunto experimental .

Prediccin para Karen
La cizalladura del viento aumentar constantemente mientras la tormenta se dirige al norte -noroeste , y de corte alcanzar un mximo de 25 nudos por la maana del sbado como Karen se acerca a la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. , segn el ltimo pronstico del modelo BUQUES . El ambiente crecer ms seco que Karen se mueve en el norte del Golfo de Mxico , y el aire ms seco combinado con el aumento de la cizalladura del viento retardar el desarrollo , por lo que slo la intensificacin lento probablemente a viernes. Un canal de baja presin y un frente fro asociado se mueve a travs de Louisiana el sbado, y los vientos del oeste en los niveles altos asociados ser capaz de convertir Karen ms al noreste , ya que se acerca a la costa en la noche del viernes y la maana del sbado . Cuanto ms alto cizallamiento en ese momento debe ser capaz de inducir debilitamiento y el 08 a.m. EDT Jueves probabilidad previsin de viento de NHC dio un 28 % de posibilidades de Karen ser un huracn a las 2 am EDT Sbado , frente al 44 % el viernes por la tarde . La mayora de los modelos predicen que toc tierra ocurrir a lo largo del Panhandle de Florida el sbado por la tarde o por la noche occidental. El modelo europeo generalmente fiable Karen ha de tocar tierra sobre Luisiana del Este, sin embargo. Si Karen no seguir este camino ms hacia el oeste , la tormenta ser ms dbil, ya que no hay aire ms seco y ms alta cizalladura del viento del oeste. Dado que casi todos los grandes tormentas de Karen se desplazar al este con alta cizalladura del viento, habr precipitaciones relativamente bajas totales de 1-3 “, inmediatamente al oeste de donde el centro toque tierra . Mucho mayores totales de lluvia de 4-8 ” se puede esperar que este. Para juzgar las posibilidades de recibir los vientos de tormenta tropical en su ubicacin, le recomiendo usar el pronstico del NHC probabilidad viento. Las probabilidades ms altas de vientos de tormenta tropical ( 45 – 55 % ) estn a lo largo de la costa de Buras , Louisiana , a Pensacola , Florida.

Voy a tener un nuevo puesto esta tarde.

Jeff Masters
Obtenga ms informacin en

Huracn relojes estn volando a lo largo de la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. como la tormenta tropical Karen dirige hacia el norte -noroeste hacia el Golfo de Mxico . Karen , la undcima tormenta con nombre de la temporada de huracanes del Atlntico 2013 , se form alrededor de 8 am EDT el jueves en el sudeste del Golfo de Mxico . No es frecuente que se ve una nueva tormenta empiezan con vientos sostenidos de 60 mph , pero eso es lo que un avin cazador de huracanes Fuerza Area encontr esta maana cerca de las 7:30 am EDT , cuando se tomaron muestras de la parte norte de la tormenta. Un barco se encuentra a unos 50 kilmetros al noreste de la punta noreste de la Pennsula de Yucatn midi vientos sostenidos de 51 mph cerca al mismo tiempo. Bucles de satlite muestran que Karen es una tormenta de tamao medio con una zona de tormentas muy intensas a lo largo de sus flancos norte y este . La cizalladura del viento ha aumentado desde el mircoles, y ahora es una moderadamente alta 20 nudos , gracias a los fuertes vientos de nivel superior desde el oeste -suroeste . Estos vientos fuertes se mantienen las fuertes tormentas se desarrolle en el lado oeste del centro de la circulacin de Karen, por la conduccin de aire seco que es la Pennsula de Yucatn y el oeste del Golfo de Mxico en el ncleo de Karen. Como resultado , Karen tiene una coma en forma desigual en las imgenes satelitales . Karen tiene un canal de salida de nivel superior fuerte para el norte que est ayudando a ventilar la tormenta, sin embargo, y las temperaturas ocenicas son un muy clido 29 C ( 84 bis F). Entre las 7 am y las 09:30 am EDT los Hurricane Hunters hicieron tres pases , aunque el centro de Karen , y la presin central permanecieron ms o menos constantes en 1004 mb , por lo que Karen no est pasando por muchos cambios.

Figura 1 . Las probabilidades de recibir ms de 4 ” de la lluvia en un perodo de cinco das a partir de las 02 a.m. EDT jueves 3 de octubre de 2013, segn lo predicho por el modelo GFDL conjunto experimental .

Prediccin para Karen
La cizalladura del viento aumentar constantemente mientras la tormenta se dirige al norte -noroeste , y de corte alcanzar un mximo de 25 nudos por la maana del sbado como Karen se acerca a la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. , segn el ltimo pronstico del modelo BUQUES . El ambiente crecer ms seco que Karen se mueve en el norte del Golfo de Mxico , y el aire ms seco combinado con el aumento de la cizalladura del viento retardar el desarrollo , por lo que slo la intensificacin lento probablemente a viernes. Un canal de baja presin y un frente fro asociado se mueve a travs de Louisiana el sbado, y los vientos del oeste en los niveles altos asociados ser capaz de convertir Karen ms al noreste , ya que se acerca a la costa en la noche del viernes y la maana del sbado . Cuanto ms alto cizallamiento en ese momento debe ser capaz de inducir debilitamiento y el 08 a.m. EDT Jueves probabilidad previsin de viento de NHC dio un 28 % de posibilidades de Karen ser un huracn a las 2 am EDT Sbado , frente al 44 % el viernes por la tarde . La mayora de los modelos predicen que toc tierra ocurrir a lo largo de la Florida Panhandle sbado por la tarde o por la noche occidental. El modelo europeo generalmente fiable Karen ha de tocar tierra sobre Luisiana del Este, sin embargo. Si Karen no seguir este camino ms hacia el oeste , la tormenta ser ms dbil, ya que no hay aire ms seco y ms alta cizalladura del viento del oeste. Dado que casi todos los grandes tormentas de Karen se desplazar al este con alta cizalladura del viento, habr precipitaciones relativamente bajas totales de 1-3 “, inmediatamente al oeste de donde el centro toque tierra . Mucho mayores totales de lluvia de 4-8 ” se puede esperar que este. Para juzgar las posibilidades de recibir los vientos de tormenta tropical en su ubicacin, le recomiendo usar el pronstico del NHC probabilidad viento. Las probabilidades ms altas de vientos de tormenta tropical ( 45 – 55 % ) estn a lo largo de la costa de Buras , Louisiana , a Pensacola , Florida.

Voy a tener un nuevo puesto esta tarde.

Jeff Masters
Obtenga ms informacin en

Huracn relojes estn volando a lo largo de la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. como la tormenta tropical Karen dirige hacia el norte -noroeste hacia el Golfo de Mxico . Karen , la undcima tormenta con nombre de la temporada de huracanes del Atlntico 2013 , se form alrededor de 8 am EDT el jueves en el sudeste del Golfo de Mxico . No es frecuente que se ve una nueva tormenta empiezan con vientos sostenidos de 60 mph , pero eso es lo que un avin cazador de huracanes Fuerza Area encontr esta maana cerca de las 7:30 am EDT , cuando se tomaron muestras de la parte norte de la tormenta. Un barco se encuentra a unos 50 kilmetros al noreste de la punta noreste de la Pennsula de Yucatn midi vientos sostenidos de 51 mph cerca al mismo tiempo. Bucles de satlite muestran que Karen es una tormenta de tamao medio con una zona de tormentas muy intensas a lo largo de sus flancos norte y este . La cizalladura del viento ha aumentado desde el mircoles, y ahora es una moderadamente alta 20 nudos , gracias a los fuertes vientos de nivel superior desde el oeste -suroeste . Estos vientos fuertes se mantienen las fuertes tormentas se desarrolle en el lado oeste del centro de la circulacin de Karen, por la conduccin de aire seco que es la Pennsula de Yucatn y el oeste del Golfo de Mxico en el ncleo de Karen. Como resultado , Karen tiene una coma en forma desigual en las imgenes satelitales . Karen tiene un canal de salida de nivel superior fuerte para el norte que est ayudando a ventilar la tormenta, sin embargo, y las temperaturas ocenicas son un muy clido 29 C ( 84 bis F). Entre las 7 am y las 09:30 am EDT los Hurricane Hunters hicieron tres pases , aunque el centro de Karen , y la presin central permanecieron ms o menos constantes en 1004 mb , por lo que Karen no est pasando por muchos cambios.

Figura 1 . Las probabilidades de recibir ms de 4 ” de la lluvia en un perodo de cinco das a partir de las 02 a.m. EDT jueves 3 de octubre de 2013, segn lo predicho por el modelo GFDL conjunto experimental .

Prediccin para Karen
La cizalladura del viento aumentar constantemente mientras la tormenta se dirige al norte -noroeste , y de corte alcanzar un mximo de 25 nudos por la maana del sbado como Karen se acerca a la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. , segn el ltimo pronstico del modelo BUQUES . El ambiente crecer ms seco que Karen se mueve en el norte del Golfo de Mxico , y el aire ms seco combinado con el aumento de la cizalladura del viento retardar el desarrollo , por lo que slo la intensificacin lento probablemente a viernes. Un canal de baja presin y un frente fro asociado se mueve a travs de Louisiana el sbado, y los vientos del oeste en los niveles altos asociados ser capaz de convertir Karen ms al noreste , ya que se acerca a la costa en la noche del viernes y la maana del sbado . Cuanto ms alto cizallamiento en ese momento debe ser capaz de inducir debilitamiento y el 08 a.m. EDT Jueves probabilidad previsin de viento de NHC dio un 28 % de posibilidades de Karen ser un huracn a las 2 am EDT Sbado , frente al 44 % el viernes por la tarde . La mayora de los modelos predicen que toc tierra ocurrir a lo largo de la Florida Panhandle sbado por la tarde o por la noche occidental. El modelo europeo generalmente fiable Karen ha de tocar tierra sobre Luisiana del Este, sin embargo. Si Karen no seguir este camino ms hacia el oeste , la tormenta ser ms dbil, ya que no hay aire ms seco y ms alta cizalladura del viento del oeste. Dado que casi todos los grandes tormentas de Karen se desplazar al este con alta cizalladura del viento, habr precipitaciones relativamente bajas totales de 1-3 “, inmediatamente al oeste de donde el centro toque tierra . Mucho mayores totales de lluvia de 4-8 ” se puede esperar que este. Para juzgar las posibilidades de recibir los vientos de tormenta tropical en su ubicacin, le recomiendo usar el pronstico del NHC probabilidad viento. Las probabilidades ms altas de vientos de tormenta tropical ( 45 – 55 % ) estn a lo largo de la costa de Buras , Louisiana , a Pensacola , Florida.

Voy a tener un nuevo puesto esta tarde.

Jeff Masters
Obtenga ms informacin en

MARTIMO

Atlntico Tropical Tiempo Discusin

AXNT20 TJSJ 041804
TWDAT

DISCUSIN CLIMA TROPICAL
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT VIERNES 04 de octubre 2013

DISCUSIN CLIMA TROPICAL DE NORTE AMERICA CENTRAL …
AMERICA … GOLFO DE MEXICO … EL ​​MAR CARIBE … SECCIONES DEL NORTE DE
SOUTH AMERICA … Y OCANO ATLNTICO EN LA COSTA AFRICANA DE LA
ECUADOR PARA 32N . LA SIGUIENTE INFORMACIN EST BASADA EN SATELITE
OBSERVACIONES IMGENES … Tiempo … RADAR … y meteorolgicos
ANLISIS .

BASADO EN LA SUPERFICIE 1200 UTC ANLISIS E IMGENES POR SATLITE
1715 UTC.

… CARACTERSTICAS ESPECIALES …

EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL KAREN AT 04 /1800 UTC EST CERCA 25.8N
90.2W . Esta posicin tambin es de unos 208 NM AL SUR -SUROESTE
DE LA BOCA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI … Y COMO A 240 NM AL
Sur-sureste de Morgan City Louisiana. KAREN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA
EL NORTE – NOROESTE 8 NUDOS. LA CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA
PRESIN ES 1003 MB . LOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SON VELOCIDADES DE VIENTO
45 NUDOS CON RAFAGAS HASTA 55 NUDOS. POR FAVOR LEA EL PBLICO
ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE KAREN que se emiten bajo la cabecera de la OMM
WTNT32 KNHC Y BAJO EL ENCABEZADO DE AWIPS MIATCPAT2 … Y EL
PRONSTICO / ADVERTENCIAS que se emiten bajo la cabecera de la OMM
WTNT22 KNHC Y BAJO EL ENCABEZADO DE AWIPS MIATCMAT2 . UN HURACN
VIGILANCIA Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE HAN EMITIDO POR PARTES
DEL U.S.A. Costa del Golfo . Precipitacin convectiva …
DISPERSADAS a numerosos FUERTE DE 23N A 27N ENTRE 85W Y 90W .
QUEBRADA DE NUBES MULTICAPA Cubierto y otras posibles
PRECIPITACIN SON OTRA PARTE AL ESTE DE LA LNEA QUE FUNCIONA
DEL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA COSTERA DE LA ESQUINA NORESTE
DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN . LAS LLUVIAS DE 24 HORAS total en pulgadas
CORRESPONDIENTE AL EJERCICIO CERRADO EL 04 /1200 UTC … SEGN EL PAN
TEMPERATURA DE LATINA Y TABLAS DE PRECIPITACIN … MIATPTPAN …
Es de 0,49 EN MERIDA MEXICO .

… ONDAS TROPICALES …

UN OCANO ATLNTICO ONDA TROPICAL ESTA JUNTO 20N44W 15N47W 10N49W …
CASI ESTACIONARIO DURANTE LOS ULTIMOS 6 HORAS. CONVECTIVO
PRECIPITACIN … AISLADO DE MODERADO muy dispersa … A
LOCALMENTE FUERTE … DESDE 9N A 16N ENTRE 40W Y 50W .

UN OCEANO ATLANTICO TROPICAL CURVAS onda a lo largo 18N52W 16N56W … A
A 1.012 MB ​​CENTRO DE BAJA PRESIN QUE EST CERCA 14N57W . LA ONDA ERA
Reposicionado PARA COINCIDIR CON IMAGENES DE SATELITE DE LARGO PLAZO .
Precipitacin convectiva … muy dispersos MODERADO A AISLADO
FUERTE DE 8N A 15N ENTRE 52W Y 60W .

A TRAVS DE LA SUPERFICIE ES LO LARGO 26N49W 24N50W … A UN 1012 MB ​​BAJA
CENTRO DE PRESIN QUE EST CERCA 21N51W . ESTE CANAL ES LA ENERGA QUE
Est relacionada con la 18N52W 14N57W ONDA TROPICAL … eso fue
Estir largo de un eje norte- Sur por lo menos 24 horas antes.
Precipitacin convectiva … MODERADO AISLADO DE 21N A 25N
ENTRE 45W Y 52W .

… LA ITCZ / LA vaguada monznica …

EL CANAL DEL MONZN PASA POR LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE GUINEA
CERCA 10N14W 8N20W 8N25W . La ZCIT contina desde 8N25W A 5N35W
Y 5N40W . Precipitacin convectiva … DISPERSOS FUERTE DE 6N
A 7N ENTRE 12W Y 13W … DESDE 6N DE 7N ENTRE 16W Y 17W …
DE 7N A 8N ENTRE 20W Y 22W … Y DESDE 7N A 9N ENTRE
42W Y 44W . AISLADO EN OTRA PARTE DE MODERADA A 10N 2N AL
AL ESTE DE 50W .

DISCUSIN … …

EL GOLFO DE MEXICO …

AIR COMPARATIVO SECADORA EN DEPRESION SEGN LO VISTO EN VAPOR DE AGUA
IMGENES cubre prcticamente TODO EL GOLFO DE MEXICO AREA QUE ES
AL OESTE DEL FLUJO DE VIENTO QUE SE MUEVE EN TODO TROPICAL
STORM KAREN . La excepcin es la HUMEDAD DE ALTO NIVEL QUE EL DE
EL SUR DEL 21N AL ESTE DE 96W en el extremo sudoeste
DE LA ZONA.

NIVEL SUPERIOR anticiclnica FLUJO DE VIENTO CUBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO …
EL OCANO ATLNTICO … Y EL MAR CARIBE AL NORTE DEL 10N
Al oeste de 70W .

PARA LOS SITIOS DE PLATAFORMA OFFSHORE OIL QUE ESTN AL NORTE DEL 27N
Al oeste de 88W …

TECHOS nubes bajas se observan en LA OACI ESTACIONES KGBK …
KVBS … KDLP … Y EN KEIR . NUBE DE BAJA Y TECHOS Nubes Medias
CUBRIR LA OACI ESTACIN KSPR . OACI ESTACIN KATP informa que un
VISIBILIDAD DE 3 KILMETROS y Haze . SKIES FERIA / cielos despejados en o por
INFERIOR A 12.000 PIES estn siendo reportados en otros lugares del
AREA .

NUBES BAJAS ROTOS CUBREN LA BAJA RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS …
EN VICTORIA Y Port Lavaca … EN GALVESTON Y EN BEAUMONT / PUERTO
ARTHUR … esparcieron por nubes fragmentadas CUBIERTA DE HOUSTON
REA METROPOLITANA . NUBES MULTICAPA rota y cubierta para la lluvia
SUR DE LOUISIANA … y en la costa de Alabama . NIVEL Y MEDIO
Techos altos CLOUD NIVEL CUBIERTA FLORIDA AL OESTE DE MARA
ESTHER … NUBE DE BAJA Y TECHOS Nubes Medias de Tallahassee y
PERRY FLORIDA … NUBES ALTAS rotos son AT THE TAMPA METROPOLITANA
AEROPUERTO Y AL KEY WEST ESTACIN NAVAL AIR.

POR FAVOR LEA LA ALTA MAR PRONSTICO … MIAHSFAT2 … Y EL
PRONSTICO OFFSHORE … MIAOFFNT4 … Para ms detalles sobre TROPICAL
STORM KAREN .

Desde el Ocano Atlntico … A TRAVS LA ESPANOLA … EN EL CARIBE
SEA …

A WESTERN ATLNTICO MEDIO NIVEL DE CICLONICA NIVEL SUPERIOR
CENTRO DE CIRCULACION SE ACERCA 27N67W . FLUJO DE VIENTO CICLONICA CUBRE LA
OCANO ATLNTICO DE LAS ANTILLAS MAYORES A 30N ENTRE 60W Y
70W . UNA VAGUADA extiende desde el centro CICLONICA 27N67W A
23N68W … A TRAVS DE LA PARTE OCCIDENTAL DE LA REPBLICA DOMINICANA PARA …
15N73W en el Mar Caribe . Precipitacin convectiva …
DISPERSADAS a numerosos FUERTE EN EL OCANO ATLNTICO DE 20N A
22N ENTRE 64W Y 68W . Dispersas a moderada DISPERSOS
EN OTRA PARTE EN EL OCANO ATLNTICO DE LA COSTA NORTE DE
ESPANOLA DE 30N ENTRE 60W Y 70W … Y EN EL MAR CARIBE
EN LAS AGUAS COSTERAS DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA .

LA PREVISIN DE GFS 700 MB MUESTRA QUE LA ESPANOLA SER
RODEADO DE FLUJO DE VIENTO CICLONICA CON UNA VAGUADA INVERTIDA AMPLIA
Durante las primeras 24 a 30 horas del perodo del pronstico . SOUTHERLY
FLUJO DE VIENTO cubrir el rea PARA EL RESTO DEL PERIODO DE TIEMPO
LA VAGUADA INVERTIDA MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE Y NOROESTE . EL GFS
MODELO DE 500 MB y 250 MB PARA MUESTRA MUESTRA QUE A TRAVS DE LA VOLUNTAD
CORTE A TRAVES DEL AREA Y CUBRIR LA ESPANOLA PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
O SO .

EL RESTO DEL MAR CARIBE …

NIVEL SUPERIOR anticiclnica FLUJO DE VIENTO CUBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO …
EL OCANO ATLNTICO … Y EL MAR CARIBE AL NORTE DEL 10N
Al oeste de 70W .

UN OCANO ATLNTICO SUPERFICIE DEL CANAL ES LO LARGO 59W/60W DE 16N A
22N MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE 10 NUDOS O MENOS . Rainshowers SON POSIBLES
DE 17N A 21N ENTRE 58W Y 62W . Esta funcin es SOLO
FUERA DE LA ESQUINA NORESTE DEL AREA .

EL CANAL DEL MONZN es a lo largo 11N73W EN COLOMBIA … A 11N80W EN
LA ESQUINA SUROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE … ALL EN 10N86W
COSTA RICA … EN EL OCANO PACFICO ORIENTAL . CONVECTIVO
PRECIPITACIN … NUMEROSOS FUERTE DE 6N A 12N ENTRE 70W Y
81W AT 04 / 0915 UTC se ha debilitado COMPARATIVO . DISPERSADAS FUERTE
Precipitacin convectiva RESTOS DE 7N A 13N ENTRE 67W Y
85W .

EL RESTO DEL ATLNTICO …

NIVEL SUPERIOR anticiclnica FLUJO DE VIENTO CUBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO …
EL OCANO ATLNTICO … Y EL MAR CARIBE AL NORTE DEL 10N
Al oeste de 70W .

AIR COMPARATIVO SECADORA EN DEPRESION SEGN LO VISTO EN VAPOR DE AGUA
IMGENES CUBRE EL OCANO ATLNTICO QUE ES AL OESTE DE LA
27N67W CICLONICA CENTER . La excepcin es ALTO NIVEL DE HUMEDAD
Es el noroeste de la lnea que va desde 32N67W A
26N73W 23N78W A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE CUBA .

A NIVEL MEDIO A TRAVS DE NIVEL SUPERIOR PASA POR 32N45W A
28N49W Y 25N49W . AIR COMPARATIVO SECADORA EN HUNDIMIENTO DE VISTA
EN IMGENES DE VAPOR DE AGUA CUBRE EL OCANO ATLNTICO EN 250 NM
A 400 NM AL NOROESTE DE LA CANAL .

A NIVEL MEDIO DEBILITAMIENTO A TRAVS DE NIVEL SUPERIOR PASA POR
32N36W A 25N40W . Precipitacin convectiva … NUMEROSOS FUERTE
DE 21N A 23N ENTRE 36W Y 40W . BROKEN a nublado
NUBES MULTICAPA y precipitaciones persistentes POSIBLE
OTRO DE 19N A 28N ENTRE 32W Y 42W .

A RIDGE SUPERFICIE pasa por un 1021 MB CENTRO DE ALTA PRESIN
Que est cerca 31N24W A 25N31W … A 29N47W … A 32N55W … Y
NOROESTE MAS ALLA A 1022 MB CENTRO DE ALTA PRESIN QUE EST CERCA
33N66W .

POR FAVOR LEA LA ALTA MAR PRONSTICO … MIAHSFAT2 … PARA MS
DETALLES SOBRE EL PRONSTICO 48 HORAS PARA EL SURESTE DE VIENTOS DEL SUR
DE 20 A 25 NUDOS Y ALTURAS DEL MAR A 8 PIES EN EL NORTE DE 29N A
EL OESTE DE 77W .

PARA OBTENER MS INFORMACIN , VISITE
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV / MARINE

$ $
MT

High Seas Pronstico (Tropical del Atlntico ) FZNT02 TJSJ 041532
HSFAT2

ALTA MAR PRONOSTICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
1630 UTC vie 04 de octubre 2013

SEAS dan como altura significativa de ola … que es el promedio
ALTURA DE LA MS ALTA 1/3 de las olas. ONDAS individuales pueden ser
Ms del doble de altura de ola significativa .

Scurit

ATLNTICO DE 07N A 31N W DE 35W INCLUYENDO MAR CARIBE Y
GOLFO DE MEXICO

SINOPSIS VLIDO 1200 UTC Vie Oct 04.
24 HOUR 1200 UTC Pronstico vlido Sab Oct 05.
Pronstico de 48 horas vlido a las 1200 UTC Dom Oct 06.

. ADVERTENCIAS .

… AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL …

. TORMENTA TROPICAL KAREN EN 25.6N 90.2W 1.003 MB a 1500 UTC 04 de octubre
MUDANZAS N -NW O 330 GRADOS A 9 KT . MXIMA sostenida del viento 45 RAFAGAS
55 KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL VIENTO 120 NM NE QUADRANT …
110 NM SE Y CUADRANTE CUADRANTE NW 60 NM . SEAS 12 pies o ms
Dentro de los 120 Nm de centro, salvo 30 NM SW CUADRANTE CON OLEAJE A 20
FT . Otro punto de 180 NM N y 90 S NM semicrculos vientos
33 KT . SEAS A 12 FT .
0.24 hora Pronstico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE KAREN 27.7N 90.9W .
MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS RAFAGAS DE VIENTO 45 55 KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
VIENTOS EN 100 NM NE QUADRANT … 90 NM cuadrante SE … 30 NM SW
CUADRANTE … Y 50 NM NW QUADRANT . SEAS 12 pies o ms DENTRO
NM 120 E y 60 NM W semicrculos con aguas a 22 FT . EN OTRA PARTE
N DE 25N ENTRE 86W Y 93W VIENTO A 33 KT . SEAS A 12 FT .
0.48 hora Pronstico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE KAREN 29.8N 88.6W .
MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS RAFAGAS DE VIENTO 55 65 KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
VIENTOS EN 100 NM NE QUADRANT … 120 NM SE CUADRANTE … 40 NM SW
Y CUADRANTE CUADRANTE NW 60 NM . SEAS 12 pies o ms DENTRO
E 150 NM y 75 NM W semicrculos con aguas a 24 FT . EN OTRA PARTE
N DE 27N de 85 a 90 VIENTOS DE 33 KT . SEAS A 12 FT .
0.72 hora Pronstico POST- TROPICAL CERCA DE KAREN EXTRATROPICAL 33.5N
83.0W . MXIMO SOSTENIDO DE VIENTO 25 RAFAGAS 35 KT .

VIENTOS DE PREDICCIN EN Y CERCA DE CICLONES TROPICALES activa debe
Usar con precaucin debido a la incertidumbre en TRAYECTORIA … TAMAO
E INTENSIDAD .

. SINOPSIS Y PRONSTICO .

. ATLC 48 hora Pronstico N DE 29N W DE 77W SE a S VIENTOS DE 20 A
25 KT . OLEAJE A 8 FT .

. RESTO DE VIENTOS AREA 20 kt o inferior . SEAS menos de 8 FT .

$ $
. PRONOSTICADOR WALLY BARNES . CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES .

FIN

US: Giant tornado, storm sweeps across Mississippi, at least 2 dead, 5 injured – 120413 1205z

Giant tornado sweeps across Mississippi

(Video credit: RussiaToday)

A tornado slammed into Kemper County, Miss., on Thursday, killing one person and injuring at least five, the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency reported. Jeff Rent, an agency spokesman, confirmed the death and also said several buildings were damaged.

There were reports of widespread power outages. As severe storms moved east Thursday night, tornado watches were issued for southeast Alabama and parts of Georgia and Florida. Kemper County Sheriff James Moore said the fatality occurred as the twister touched down around noon local time near a power plant on Mississippi Highway 493, the Kemper County Messenger reported.

Five Mississippi counties reported damage to several homes and a fire station, along with downed trees and power lines. About 4,000 utility customers lost electricity. Gov. Phil Bryant declared states of emergency in Kemper and Noxubee counties.

Friday, 12 April, 2013 at 03:04 (03:04 AM) UTC RSOE

Other Reports:

Two dead in US Midwest severe spring storm

BBC

A woman walks through her storm-damaged kitchen in Hazelwood, Missouri 11 April 2013 Experts say it is unusual for storms to cause damage across such a wide area

Two people have died in a storm that brought snow, hail, rain and possible tornados to a swathe of the US Midwest.

The deaths were reported in the states of Nebraska and Mississippi, where several others were injured after a reported tornado touched down.

A state of emergency has been declared around St Louis, Missouri, where about 25 suburban homes were damaged.

Wind speeds peaked at 101mph (163km/h) in Sullivan, Missouri, the National Weather Service (NWS) said.

The first death was reported in Nebraska on Tuesday, when a woman was killed as she waded through driving snow to reach her house from her disabled car.

The second death, in Mississippi, occurred in the wake of a tornado in the eastern part of the state, an emergency official said.

‘Ears popping’

Damage was reported as far west as Texas and as far east as Pennsylvania.

“It is a bit unusual this time of year to see it over that broad an area,” said Bill Bunting at the NWS storm prediction centre. “It is a fairly strong storm system.”

I thought it was an earthquake, and that’s when things started collapsing Dave Grounds Resident of Alton, Illinois”

A tornado reportedly touched down in northern Arkansas, injuring four people, local weather officials said.

In Missouri, electricity crews were working to restore power to about 23,000 customers cut off during the storm.

Further north, snow, ice and wind also led to power cuts.

Members of a local airport board were gathered in Sullivan, Missouri for a meeting on Wednesday evening when the storm’s highest wind speed was recorded.

“The city administrator said his ears were popping, then all of a sudden the building shook and the windows shook,” said board member Larry Cuneio.

“I’m the street commissioner and I’ve seen wind do a lot of things, but never anything like this.”

In Alton, Illinois, Dave Grounds said he was watching television at home when the rain suddenly picked up.

“That’s when the house started shaking violently, like it was grabbed by both sides,” Mr Grounds said. “I thought it was an earthquake, and that’s when things started collapsing.”

In Alabama, about 50 school systems sent pupils home early, ahead of the approaching storm.

Meanwhile in South Dakota, as much as 30in (76cm) of snow was reported to have fallen in some areas in recent days, and in North Dakota, a region prone to floods, 3-5in of snow was expected on Thursday evening.

====================

Deadly tornado hits Mississippi as storm system stretches across East

NBC News

“A destructive and massive storm system draped itself across half the country Thursday, from the Gulf Coast to Canada and with a wingspan from Maine to the Dakotas. At least one person was killed in Mississippi, where a tornado touched down.

Authorities in Kemper County, Miss., along the Alabama state line, reported that the storm also caused several injuries and extensive damage and destroyed at least one steel building.

Gov. Phil Bryant offered thoughts and prayers for people in the path of the storm and said that the state was sending help.

By early afternoon, the tornado was moving toward Alabama, and the more heavily populated cities of Birmingham and Tuscaloosa were in the path of the worst of the storm system.

David Carson / Post-Dispatch via AP

A tree fell on this home in Hazelwood, Mo., during heavy storms Wednesday. There were two reports of tornadoes in the town, according to Weather.com, and the governor declared a state of emergency.

The system, which has disrupted weather all over the country this week, formed a giant T on Thursday. Snow fell in the Dakotas and upstate New York, and ice-slicked roads in Wisconsin. Rain drenched the Ohio Valley and New Orleans.On Wednesday, the storm system whipped up tornadoes and severe thunderstorms across Missouri and Arkansas, wrecking homes, downing power lines and injuring people in both states.The St. Louis suburbs were walloped, and Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon declared a state of emergency. The town of Hazelwood reported two tornadoes, and a tree fell on a house there.While authorities in Arkansas could not confirm a tornado, but three homes were destroyed and more than 50 damaged along with a church. People were trapped inside a house in Lincoln when a tree fell on it.

Van Buren County, in north central Arkansas, was hit hard. More than 30 homes were damaged, six were destroyed, and a fire department was heavily damaged, according to county judge Roger Hooper. Four people were hurt.

The storm made a plaything of an 18-wheeler in Botkinburg, Ark., tossing the truck and damaging a house.

Other parts of the country were hit with a mix of snow and ice, and Gov. Mark Dayton called out the National Guard to help ice-bound Minnesotans. Freezing rain and ice yanked down power lines and tree limbs in Minnesota.

NBC News’ Christopher Nelson contributed to this report.

Related:

PhotoBlog: Trees toppled, homes destroyed by powerful storms

Full coverage from weather.com

===================

“A large tornado tore across the US state of Mississippi on Thursday, as strong spring storms battered parts of the southeast and Midwest. A resident of Noxubee County in the far eastern part of the Mississippi filmed the approaching tornado on his mobile phone as it swirled across nearby farmland. Authorities said there were reports of damaged buildings and many power outages. At least three people were killed as a result of the storms and thousands were left without power.” – rt.com

Severe Weather Outbreak: Texas to Kansas, Missouri

TheSurvivalPlaceBlog

After locally violent thunderstorms erupt on Sunday, an outbreak of severe weather will threaten lives and property from Texas to Kansas and Missouri Monday through Wednesday.

Interests from the central Plains to Texas will want to monitor weather conditions closely during the first part of next week.

The weather setup through at least the first half of next week will put lives and property at risk. The severe weather outbreak expected is likely to be the worst of the season so far.

The nature of the storm in local areas has yet to be determined, but some locations have the potential to be hit with violent thunderstorms that bring large hail, damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes and flash flooding.

There is also the potential for a few tornadoes to be produced.

The main severe weather event will be preceded by locally violent thunderstorms from the Texas Panhandle to Missouri…

View original post 353 more words

Isaac: Forecasters project the Pearl River to crest Monday at 19.5 feet, more than five feet above flood stage – Updated 02 Sept 2012 1447Z

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Five Day Track
(Click image for source)

(Image: NOAA)
HPC QPF for Tropical Depression Isaac
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS NOAA)
Current Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Watches, warnings, and advisories in effect across much of the southern United States.
(Click on the map for details. Click reload or refresh to update the map)

(Image: weather.gov)
New Orleans/Baton Rouge Long Range Radar
(Click image for source)

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=dgx&product=N0R&loop=no

(Image: NWS)
NWS Jackson, MS Radar
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS)
NWS Shreveport, LA Radar
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(Image: NWS)
Short Range New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar
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(Image: NWS)
NWS Little Rock, AR Radar
(Click for source)

(Image: NWS New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA)
Isaac Impacts

Enhanced Radar Mosaic Loop SE Sector

NHC Experimental Videocast Service

(Scroll down for video from Andros Island, Bahamas

wwltv.com

Posted on September 1, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Updated 01 Sept 2012 2103Z

(Image: wwltv.com)

Update 02 Sept 2012 1442Z:

Forecasters project the Pearl River to crest Monday at 19.5 feet, more than five feet above flood stage. That will result in “major flooding” of at least two subdivisions near the banks and threaten areas in the southeastern corner of the parish, according to the National Weather Service.

See: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/09/02/us/severe-weather/index.html

Flash Flood Warning

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

LAC103-022000-
/O.CON.KLIX.FF.W.0081.000000T0000Z-120902T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ST. TAMMANY LA-
1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR
EAST-CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH...

ST TAMMANY PARISH OFFICIALS HAVE DOWNGRADED THE MANDATORY EVACUATION
TO A VOLUNTARY EVACUTATION FOR RESIDENTS BETWEEN LOCK AND DAM NUMBER
2 AND LOCK AND DAM NUMBER ONE ON THE PEARL RIVER DIVERSION CANAL
ABOVE HICKORY.

THERE STILL REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BUT THE WATER LEVELS
WITHIN THE LOCKS HAVE BEEN LOWERED. INTERESTS IN THE AREA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND LISTEN TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM
PARISH OFFICIALS. ENGINEERS CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ASSESS THE
INTEGRITY OF THE STRUCTURE.

LAT...LON 3059 8981 3057 8981 3051 8976 3042 8974
      3042 8978 3047 8981 3051 8982 3054 8987
      3059 8987

$$

24/RR

Flood Warning

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
914 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...

THE TCHEFUNCTE RIVER ABOVE US HIGHWAY 190 NEAR COVINGTON AFFECTING ST.
TAMMANY PARISH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-032014-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-120904T1330Z/
/CUSL1.2.ER.000000T0000Z.120831T2300Z.120904T0730Z.NO/
914 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR
  THE TCHEFUNCTE RIVER ABOVE US HIGHWAY 190 NEAR COVINGTON.
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT  8:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.8 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE STAGE BY
  EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...TCHEFUNCTE CAMP GROUNDS WILL BE UNDER A FEW
  INCHES OF WATER. THE GOODBEE COMMUMUNITY IS THREATENED WITH
  FLOODING. WATER WILL INVADE CAMP TCHEFUNCTE`S PARKING LOT. VEHICLES
  MUST BE REMOVED TO HIGHER GROUND
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...WATER WILL INVADE CAMP TCHEFUNCTE`S PARKING
  LOT. VEHICLES MUST BE REMOVED TO HIGHER GROUND
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...THE CAMP TCHEFUNCTE SOFTBALL FIELD WILL BE
  UNDER WATER. THE CAMP PARKING LOT IS THREATENED WITH FLOODING AND
  VEHICLES ARE ADVISED TO BE MOVED IF HIGHER RIVER STAGES ARE
  ANTICIPATED.

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
1036 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...

THE BOGUE CHITTO RIVER AT FRANKLINTON AFFECTING WASHINGTON PARISH

THE BOGUE CHITTO RIVER NEAR BUSH AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY PARISH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-032136-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-120907T0900Z/
/BSHL1.3.ER.120831T0040Z.120902T1045Z.120907T0300Z.NR/
1036 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD
WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BOGUE CHITTO RIVER NEAR BUSH.
* UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT 10:15 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.7 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
  THURSDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...HOMES NEAR THE RIVER ALONG LOUISIANA HIGHWAY
  21 WILL BE MODERATELY FLOODED. THE ACCESS ROAD UPSTREAM OF THE
  BRIDGE WILL REMAIN INUNDATED
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS ON THE DOWNSTREAM
  SIDE OF LOUISIANA HIGHWAY  21 NEAR THE BRIDGE WILL FLOOD. THE
  ACCESS ROAD UPSTREAM OF THE BRIDGE WILL REMAIN INUNDATED
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE ACCESS ROAD UPSTREAM OF THE BRIDGE WILL
  FLOOD. THE RIVER WILL LEAVE THE MAIN CHANNEL ON THE LEFT BANK BELOW
  THE BRIDGE FLOODING WOODLANDS ON EITHER SIDE OF LOUISIANA HIGHWAY
  21
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...GRAVEL PITS UPSTREAM OF LOUISIANA HIGHWAY 21
  WILL BEGIN TO OVERFLOW THREATENING PROPERTY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
  EITHER SIDE OF HIGHWAY 21 IN THE VICINITY OF THE BRIDGE.

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
1029 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR BOGALUSA AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...
HANCOCK AND PEARL RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR PEARL RIVER AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY...HANCOCK AND
PEARL RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-117-MSC045-109-032129-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BXAL1.2.ER.000000T0000Z.120902T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1029 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER NEAR BOGALUSA.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 10:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.9 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CREST AND REMAIN AT OR
  NEAR 21.0 FEET FROM NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THE RIVER
  IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY FALLING THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 21.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND CROP ACREAGE ALONG THE RIVER
  WILL BE FLOODED. THE BOGUE CHITTO WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA WILL BE
  INUNDATED WITH WATER IN RECREATIONAL CAMPS AND OVER ACCESS ROADS.
  AT 21 FEET PROPERTY EAST OF LOUISIANA HIGHWAY 21 ALONG BOGALUSA
  CREEK WILL BEGIN TO FLOOD
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND CROP ACREAGE ALONG THE RIVER
  WILL BE FLOODED. THE BOGUE CHITTO WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA WILL BE
  INUNDATED WITH WATER IN RECREATIONAL CAMPS AND OVER ACCESS ROADS
* IMPACT...AT 18.5 FEET...WOODLANDS AND CROP ACREAGE ALONG THE RIVER
  WILL BE FLOODED. THE BOGUE CHITTO WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA WILL BE
  INUNDATED WITH WATER IN RECREATIONAL CAMPS AND OVER ACCESS ROADS
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND CROP ACREAGE ALONG THE RIVER
  WILL BE FLOODED.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...WOODLANDS ALONG THE RIVER AND WILDLIFE
  MANAGEMENT PROPERTY WILL BE FLOODED.

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
1029 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR BOGALUSA AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...
HANCOCK AND PEARL RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR PEARL RIVER AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY...HANCOCK AND
PEARL RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-MSC045-109-032129-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PERL1.3.ER.120831T0030Z.120904T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1029 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER NEAR PEARL RIVER.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 10:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.7 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING UNTIL SLOWLY
  CRESTING AT AROUND 19.5 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER IS
  EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY FALLING THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...THERE WILL BE MAJOR FLOODING OF RIVER
  GARDENS AND MODERATE FLOODING OF LOWER PORTIONS IN MAGNOLIA FOREST
  SUBDIVISIONS. SUBDIVISIONS SOUTH OF I-10 AND EAST OF MILITARY ROAD
  WILL BE THREATENED WITH FLOODING. THE INDIAN VILLAGE ROAD ACCESS TO
  RIVER OAKS SUBDIVISION WILL BE UNDER WATER AT SEVERAL PLACES
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...RIVER GARDENS SUBDIVISION WILL BE MODERATELY
  FLOODED WITH SEVERAL STREETS IMPASSABLE AND A FEW HOMES FLOODED IN
  THE VICINITY OF GUM BAYOU. A FEW HOMES WILL ALSO BE THREATENED IN
  MAGNOLIA FOREST. SECONDARY ROADS TO THE RIVER AND THROUGHOUT HONEY
  ISLAND SWAMP WILL REMAIN INUNDATED
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...WATER ON LOW LYING PROPERTY AND OVER THE
  LOWER PORTIONS OF STREETS IN RIVER GARDENS SUBDIVISION WILL SLOWLY
  BEGIN TO DRAIN
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...LOWER PORTIONS OF STREETS IN RIVER GARDENS
  SUBDIVISION WILL BEGIN TO FLOOD. SECONDARY ROADS TO THE RIVER AND
  THROUGHOUT HONEY ISLAND SWAMP WILL REMAIN INUNDATED. PROPERTY IN
  THE VICINITY OF THE GAGE IS FLOODED THREATENING ABOUT 20 HOMES
  ALONG THE LEFT BANK.  THE BOGUE CHITTO NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE
  WILL BE CLOSED TO HUNTING AT THE 15.5 FOOT STAGE
* IMPACT...AT 15.5 FEET...SECONDARY ROADS TO THE RIVER AND THROUGHOUT
  HONEY ISLAND SWAMP ARE INUNDATED. PROPERTY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
  GAGE IS FLOODED THREATENING ABOUT 20 HOMES ALONG THE LEFT BANK.
  THE BOGUE CHITTO NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE WILL BE CLOSED TO HUNTING
  AT THE 15.5 FOOT STAGE.

Update 02 Sept 2012 2010Z:

ST TAMMANY PARISH, LA (WLOX) – Officials in St. Tammany Parish in Louisiana say the danger of a lock failing on a Pearl River Canal has eased.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers worked overnight to stabilize the lock.

A mandatory evacuation is no longer in effect, for those Louisiana residents. However, officials are maintaining a voluntary evacuation status for people in hundreds of homes near Lock Number 2 on the canal.

Any potential danger from Lock Number 2 failing would not effect Mississippi, according to the National Weather Service.

wwltv.com:

Posted on September 1, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Updated today at 10:36 AM

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: The Army Corps of Engineers is at the site on Lock 2. They were able to relieve the pressure by lowering the level of the water upstream to the to the lowest level possible. They are conducting tests to determine the structural integrity now. The evacuation is now voluntary.


Eyes in St. Tammany Parish are still honed in on the Pearl River.

A mandatory evacuation has been in place for most of the day along the Pearl River Diversion Canal because of an unstable lock holding back the river’s swollen waters due to Hurricane Isaac.

It was estimated that if water got around the lock, that it could reach a height of 11 feet.

A valve was opened to help relieve pressure and water was starting to get lower, but the Army Corps planned to stay on site and monitor the situation. The mandatory evacuation remained in place as of 10 p.m.

wspa.com UPDATE: August 31, 12:43 a.m.

Isaac Weakens To Tropical Depression

Isaac is now a Tropical depression centered near southern Arkansas. Winds continue to upwards to 30 miles-per hour. It is expected to move northward through the Mississippi River Valley before moving into the Ohio River Valley by Saturday night.

A Tornado Watch is in effect for all of central and southern Mississippi, as well as portions of southeast Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Leslie has formed in the Atlantic Ocean and has maximum sustained winds at 50 miles-per hour. It is moving west at 18 miles-per hour. It is projected to move west toward Puerto Rico by Sunday.

Hurricane Kirk remains well out in the Atlantic and is not a threat to land. As of 11 p.m., wind gusts were 100 miles per-hour and moving north northwest at 12 miles-per hour.

UPDATE: August 30th 2012, 4:40 p.m.

Issac has now been downgraded to a Tropical Depression.

—————————————————————————————————————–

WTNT34 KNHC 301740
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  38A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
100 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

…SLOW-MOVING ISAAC DRENCHING SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI WITH HEAVY RAINFALL…
…SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE CONTINUES…

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…32.2N 92.3W
ABOUT 25 MI…45 KM SW OF MONROE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER…
INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
LOUISIANA TODAY…OVER ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY…AND OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H… WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER LAND…AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES…315
KM…MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER AND ALSO
ALONG THE COASTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS 992 MB…29.29 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
EVEN THOUGH ISAAC IS NO LONGER A HURRICANE…LIFE-THREATENING
HAZARDS FROM STORM SURGE…INLAND FLOODING…AND TORNADOES ARE
STILL OCCURRING.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND
IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

* MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA…4 TO 8 FT
* ALABAMA…2 TO 4 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA…1 TO 3 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE…1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS.  SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES.  FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.  NEAR THE
COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAGES…AT
NEW CANAL STATION LOUISIANA…A STORM SURGE OF NEAR 6 FEET IS
PERSISTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN…AND A
STORM SURGE VALUE OF NEAR 5 FEET CONTINUES AT WAVELAND MISSISSIPPI.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL…ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 7 TO 14 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE…OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOUISIANA….MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI…SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA…ARKANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
LOWLAND FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE SPREADING
EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-WEST AND OHIO VALLEY
REGIONS.

TORNADOES…TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
TODAY.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Spanish:

WTNT34 TJSJ 301740
TCPAT4

BOLETÍN
TORMENTA TROPICAL ISAAC ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 38A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL092012
100 PM CDT jue 30 de agosto 2012

… De lento movimiento ISAAC empapando SURESTE DE LOUISIANA Y
MISSISSIPPI CON LLUVIA FUERTE …
MAREJADA SIGNIFICATIVO … CONTINÚA …

RESUMEN DE LAS 100 PM CDT … 1800 UTC … INFORMACIÓN
———————————————-
UBICACIÓN … 32.2N 92.3W
ACERCA DE MI 25 … 45 KM SW DE MONROE LOUISIANA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 40 MPH … 65 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … NNW O 330 GRADOS A 9 MPH … 15 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 992 MB … 29.29 PULGADAS

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——————–
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

NINGUNO.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE MISSISSIPPI Y ALABAMA …
Incluyendo el lago Pontchartrain y MAUREPAS LAGO

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … FAVOR MONITOREAR
LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA
OFICINA.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
——————————
A LAS 100 PM CDT … 1800 UTC … EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL Isaac
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.2 NORTE … LONGITUD 92.3 OESTE. Isaac es
MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH … 15 KM / H. UN GIRO
HACIA EL NORTE SE ESPERA POR LA TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL VIERNES. EN EL
PREVISIÓN TRAYECTORIA … EL CENTRO DE ISAAC CONTINUARA MOVIENDOSE SOBRE
LOUISIANA HOY … OVER ARKANSAS EL VIERNES … Y SOBRE EL SUR
MISSOURI VIERNES POR LA NOCHE.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH … 65 KM / H. .. CON MAYOR
RAFAGAS. DEBILITAMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS COMO LA TORMENTA
Continúa moviéndose SOBRE TIERRA … Y SE ESPERA QUE ISAAC HAZTE
DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL ESTA TARDE O NOCHE.

Tormenta tropical vientos con fuerza EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 195 MILLAS … 315
KM … MAYORMENTE AL SURESTE DEL CENTRO SOBRE EL AGUA Y TAMBIÉN
A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI Y EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA BASADA EN LA SUPERFICIE DE CERCA
OBSERVACIONES 992 MB … 29.29 PULGADAS.

RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
———————-
Aunque Isaac YA NO ES UN HURACAN … que amenaza la vida
LOS PELIGROS DE LAS INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA … INTERIOR … Y TORNADOS SON
Sigue produciendo.

MAREJADA … LA COMBINACIÓN DE UNA MAREJADA Y MAREA LA VOLUNTAD
CAUSA áreas normalmente secas CERCA DE LA COSTA ser inundado por la subida
AGUAS. El agua podría llegar a las profundidades SIGUIENTES sobre el suelo
SI SURGE EL PICO SE PRODUCE EN EL MOMENTO DE MAREA ALTA …

* Mississippi y Louisiana … SURESTE DE 4 A 8 FT
* ALABAMA … 2 A 4 PIES
* CENTRO-SUR DE LOUISIANA … 1 a 3 pies
* Panhandle de Florida … 1 a 2 pies

Las aguas más profundas OCURRE LO LARGO DE LA COSTA INMEDIATA EN LAS ZONAS DE
VIENTOS HACIA TIERRA. SURGE inundaciones relacionadas DEPENDE DEL PARIENTE
MOMENTO DE LA MAREJADA Y EL CICLO DE MAREA … y puede variar mucho a lo largo
Distancias cortas. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … FAVOR
VER PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO. CERCA DE LA
COSTA … LA MAREJADA SERÁN ACOMPAÑADOS POR OLAS GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS.

Basándose en las observaciones de la National mareógrafos Servicio Oceánico … AT
NUEVO CANAL DE LA ESTACIÓN DE LOUISIANA … una marejada de cerca de 6 pies es
PERSISTIENDO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUR DE lago Pontchartrain … Y UN
VALOR DE LA MAREJADA CERCA DE 5 PIES EN CONTINUA Waveland.

VIENTO … CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE CONTINUARA A TRAVES DE LA ATENCIÓN
ÁREA DE HASTA ESTA TARDE.

LLUVIA … ISAAC SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 7 A 14 PULGADAS … CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 25 PULGADAS
POSIBLE … MÁS DE NORTE Y ESTE DE LOUISIANA …. MUCHO DE
MISSISSIPPI … SUROESTE DE ALABAMA … ARKANSAS Y EN EL SUR
MISSOURI A VIERNES. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR UNA CONSIDERABLE
TIERRAS BAJAS INUNDACIONES. EL POTENCIAL DE LLUVIAS FUERTES SE DIFUSIÓN
AL ESTE ESTE FIN DE SEMANA EN PARTES DE LA MITAD OCCIDENTAL Y VALLE DE OHIO
REGIONES.

TORNADOS … TORNADOS SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO
REGIÓN Y PARTES DE LA BAJA POR valle del río Mississippi
HOY.

SURF SURF … RIP PELIGROSO Y CONDICIONES ACTUALES CONTINUARA
AFECTAR LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA Y LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DE
PROXIMOS DIAS.

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
————-
ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA … 400 PM CDT.

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART

Hurricane Local Statements for ISAAC

Issuing WFO Homepage Hurricane Local Statement
Shreveport, LA 1248 PM CDT THU AUG 30
New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA 1040 AM CDT THU AUG 30
Jackson, MS 1036 AM CDT THU AUG 30
Lake Charles, LA 1019 AM CDT THU AUG 30
San Angelo, TX 655 AM CDT THU AUG 30

21 Aug 2012: Tropical Storm Isaac poses possible threat to GOP convention in Florida

22 Aug 2012:

The Weather Channel (www.weather.com):

Tropical Storm Isaac is forecast to continue strengthening steadily as it moves through the northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday and into the northeast Caribbean by Thursday. Isaac could become a hurricane as early as Thursday.

Residents and visitors of the northern Caribbean, Yucatan Peninsula, southeastern United States and the central/eastern Gulf Coast should watch the progress of Isaac closely over the next week or more.

Initial impacts from Isaac will be felt in the northeastern Caribbean islands Wednesday into Thursday. Numerous watches and warnings have been issued, including a hurricane watch for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the southern Dominican Republic. Puerto Rico will see its greatest impacts from Isaac on Thursday.

(TRACK ISAAC: Interactive hurricane tracker)

The Weather Channel (www.weather.com):
Tormenta tropical Isaac se prevé continuar fortaleciendo constantemente mientras se mueve a través de las Antillas menores del Norte el miércoles y en el Caribe noreste para el jueves. Isaac podría convertirse en un huracán tan pronto como el jueves.
Los residentes y visitantes de el Caribe Norte, Península de Yucatán, sureste de Estados Unidos y el central y oriental del Golfo deben vigilar el progreso de Isaac estrechamente la próxima semana o más.
Impactos iniciales de Isaac se sentirán en las Islas del Caribe noreste el miércoles al jueves. Se han publicado numerosos relojes y advertencias, incluyendo una vigilancia de huracán para Puerto Rico, las Islas Vírgenes y República Dominicana del Sur. Puerto Rico verá sus mayores impactos de Isaac el jueves.
The Weather Channel (www.weather.com) :
Tempête tropicale Isaac prévoit continuer renforcer régulièrement lorsqu’il se déplace à travers les petites Antilles du Nord, le mercredi et dans les Caraïbes du nord-est par jeudi. Isaac pourrait devenir un ouragan dès jeudi.
Résidents et visiteurs de la Caraïbe du Nord, péninsule du Yucatan, sud-est des États-Unis et le central/eastern Gulf Coast devraient surveiller les progrès d’Isaac étroitement au cours de la semaine prochaine ou plus.
Les impacts initiaux d’Isaac feront sentir dans les îles des Caraïbes du nord-est mercredi à jeudi. Nombreuses veilles et avertissements ont été émis, y compris une veille d’ouragan pour Porto Rico, les îles Vierges américaines et la République dominicaine du Sud. Puerto Rico verra ses répercussions les plus importantes d’Isaac le jeudi.
24 Aug 2012 0856 GMT/UTC:
Haiti, Dominican Republic await Tropical Storm Isaac
Tropical Storm Isaac Storm warnings have already been declared for Puerto Rico and parts of the US Virgin Island  Haiti and the Dominican Republic are braced for a battering as Tropical Storm Isaac approaches Hispaniola, the island shared by the two countries.Some 400,000 Haitians still living in makeshift camps after a deadly earthquake in 2010 are “amongst the most vulnerable”, aid groups warn.Isaac could have become a hurricane by the time it is due to hit the island later today (Friday), meteorologists say – BBC News
Haití, República Dominicana esperan Tormenta Tropical Isaac
Advertencias de tormenta tropical Isaac tormenta ya han sido declaradas para Puerto Rico y partes de la Virgin Island
Haití y República Dominicana son apoyados por una agresión como Tormenta Tropical Isaac se acerca a la española, la isla compartida por los dos países.
Unos 400.000 haitianos siguen viviendo en campamentos improvisados tras un mortífero terremoto en 2010 son “entre los más vulnerables”, advierten grupos de ayuda.
Isaac podría han convertido en un huracán por el momento es debido al éxito la isla hoy (viernes), dicen los meteorólogos – BBC News
Haïti, République dominicaine attendent tempête tropicale Isaac
Avertissements de tempête tropicale Isaac tempête ont déjà été déclarés pour Porto Rico et les parties de l’île vierge US
Haïti et la République dominicaine sont contreventés pour un percutant l’approche de la tempête tropicale Isaac Hispaniola, l’île partagée par les deux pays.
Quelque 400 000 Haïtiens vivent toujours dans des camps de fortune après un tremblement de terre meurtrier en 2010 sont « parmi les plus vulnérables », avertissent les groupes d’aide.
Isaac aurait pu devenir un ouragan au moment où qu’elle est due à succès l’île plus tard aujourd’hui (vendredi), météorologues disent – BBC News
25 Aug 2012 1642 GMT/UTC

TWC: Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Florida Keys sometime Sunday, with conditions to deteriorate in southern Florida throughout the day Sunday.The 11 a.m. advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center reports Isaac’s winds at 60 mph with its pressure at 998 millibars, a slight increase from the advisory three hours earlier. The system was moving northwest at 14 mph.Even though Isaac weakened briefly overnight as it moved over the mountains along the western tip of Hispanola, the tropical storm is expected to strengthen moving forward. The storm’s projected track has shifted slightly to the east, and remained a possible threat to Tampa, Fla., where the Republican National Convention starts Monday.Florida Gov. Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency as Tropical Storm Isaac approaches the state.Scott said the goal was to make sure every local, state and federal agency “has the exact same information” on the storm and preparations in order to make informed decisions. He issued the state of emergency Saturday during a media briefing in Broward County.Dr. Rick Knabb, director of the National Hurricane Center, said the storm has shifted in a way that could lead to Isaac, already a huge tropical storm, to increase in intensity.”Over the last several days we’ve been talking about how interdependent the track intensity forecasts are in this case relative how much time the center of Isaac spends over land on the way from the Caribbean to Florida, said Dr. Rick Knabb, head of the National Hurricane Center on The Weather Channel.”Unfortunately for the U.S., it took a path of least resistence by going in between Haiti and  Cuba. There is still some interaction with terrain there disrupting circulation somewhat. But, compared to yesterday, we’re more confident — unfortunately for Florida — that it’s going to take a path that spends more time over the land mass of Cuba that we thought possible yesterday.”Knabb said he expects conditions to begin “to go downhill” in Florida early Sunday, adding that he is “concerned about southwest Florida, not just the southeast, because they’re very, very vulnerable to storm surge down there, and, as of our 8am advisory, we’re talking about the potential for 5-to-7 feet of storm surge inundation in portions of the coastal areas of southwestern Florida.Said Knabb: “The intensity (of Isaac) even if it remains over water is still uncertain. We can’t 100 percent guarantee that a hurricane is going to cross over the Keys of southern Florida, but the chances are high enough that we’re forecasting that, and there is a hurricane warning down there.”

Spanish:

Tropical Storm Isaac se espera que sea un huracán en el momento en que llegue a los Cayos de la Florida en algún momento del domingo, con las condiciones que se deterioran en el sur de Florida durante todo el día domingo.

De las 11 am aviso emitido por el Centro Nacional de Huracanes informa vientos de Isaac a 60 millas por hora con su presión a 998 milibares, un ligero aumento de los asesores tres horas antes. El sistema se movía hacia el noroeste a 14 mph.

A pesar de que Isaac se debilitó brevemente durante la noche mientras se movía sobre las montañas a lo largo de la punta occidental de la Española, la tormenta tropical se espera que se fortalezca hacia adelante. Pista proyectada de la tormenta se ha desplazado ligeramente hacia el este, y se mantuvo una posible amenaza a Tampa, Florida, donde la Convención Nacional Republicana comienza el lunes.

Gobernador de Florida, Rick Scott ha declarado el estado de emergencia como la tormenta tropical Isaac se acerca al estado.

Scott dijo que el objetivo era asegurarse de que todas las agencias locales, estatales y federal “tiene la misma información” sobre la tormenta y los preparativos con el fin de tomar decisiones informadas. Emitió el estado de emergencia el sábado durante una rueda de prensa en el condado de Broward.

Dr. Rick Knabb, director del Centro Nacional de Huracanes, dijo que la tormenta ha pasado de una manera que podría llevar a Isaac, ya es una tormenta tropical enorme, aumentando en intensidad.

“En los últimos días hemos estado hablando de cómo interdependiente de los pronósticos de intensidad de pesca son en este caso relativo cuánto tiempo el centro de Isaac pasa por la tierra en el camino desde el Caribe hasta Florida, dijo el Dr. Rick Knabb, jefe de el Centro Nacional de Huracanes en The Weather Channel.

“Desafortunadamente para los EE.UU., tomó el camino de menor resistencia yendo entre Haití y Cuba Todavía hay cierta interacción con el terreno no interrumpir la circulación de alguna manera, pero, en comparación con ayer, estamos más seguros -.. Desafortunadamente para Florida – – que va a tomar un camino que pasa más tiempo en la masa de tierra de Cuba que creíamos posible ayer “.

Knabb dijo que espera que las condiciones para comenzar “a ir cuesta abajo” en Florida la madrugada del domingo, y agregó que está “preocupado por el suroeste de Florida, no sólo el sureste, ya que son muy, muy vulnerables a la marejada ciclónica allá abajo, y, a partir de 08 a.m. nuestro asesoramiento, estamos hablando de la posibilidad de que de 5 a 7 pies de inundación de mareas de tempestad en las partes de las zonas costeras del suroeste de Florida.

Dicho Knabb:. “La intensidad (de Isaac), incluso si permanece sobre el agua es aún incierto Podemos no es 100 por ciento de garantía de que un huracán va a cruzar los Cayos del sur de Florida, pero las ocasiones son lo suficientemente alto que nosotros” volver a pronosticar que, y hay una advertencia de huracán ahí abajo “.

French:

La tempête tropicale Isaac devrait être un ouragan au moment où il atteint parfois les Keys de Floride dimanche, avec des conditions à se détériorer dans le sud de la Floride pendant toute la journée du dimanche.

De 11 heures consultatif émis par le Centre national des ouragans rapporte vents d’Isaac à 60 mph avec sa pression de 998 millibars, soit une légère hausse dans les trois heures plus tôt consultatifs. Le système se déplaçait au nord-ouest à 14 mph.

Même si Isaac affaibli brièvement durant la nuit pendant qu’il se déplaçait sur les montagnes le long de la pointe ouest de l’Hispaniola, la tempête tropicale devrait se renforcer aller de l’avant. La trajectoire prévue de la tempête s’est déplacée légèrement à l’est, et demeure une menace possible à Tampa, en Floride, où la Convention nationale républicaine commence lundi.

Floride gouverneur Rick Scott a déclaré l’état d’urgence alors que la tempête tropicale Isaac se rapproche de l’état.

Scott a déclaré que le but était de s’assurer que chaque local, organisme étatique et fédéral »a exactement les mêmes informations” sur la tempête et les préparatifs en vue de prendre des décisions éclairées. Il a émis l’état d’urgence samedi lors d’une conférence de presse à Broward County.

Dr. Rick Knabb, directeur du National Hurricane Center, a déclaré la tempête s’est déplacée d’une manière qui pourrait conduire à Isaac, déjà une énorme tempête tropicale, à augmenter en intensité.

«Au cours des derniers jours, nous avons parlé de la façon dont interdépendant, les prévisions d’intensité de piste sont dans ce cas par rapport combien de temps le centre d’Isaac passe sur la terre sur le chemin de la Caraïbe en Floride, a déclaré le Dr Rick Knabb, chef de le Centre national des ouragans sur The Weather Channel.

“Malheureusement pour les Etats-Unis, il a fallu un chemin de moindre résistance en allant entre Haïti et Cuba Il ya encore une certaine interaction avec le terrain il perturber la circulation un peu Mais, par rapport à hier, nous sommes plus confiants -.. Malheureusement pour la Floride – – que ça va prendre un chemin qui passe plus de temps sur la masse terrestre de Cuba que nous pensions possible hier “.

Knabb a dit qu’il s’attend à ce que les conditions pour commencer “à descendre” en Floride dimanche matin, ajoutant qu’il est «préoccupé sud-ouest de la Floride, et pas seulement le sud-est, parce qu’ils sont très, très vulnérable à une onde de tempête là-bas, et, comme d’ 8 heures de notre conseil, nous parlons de la possibilité pour le 5-à-7 pieds d’inondation des ondes de tempête dans les parties des zones côtières du sud-ouest de la Floride.

Knabb dit:. “L’intensité (d’Isaac), même si elle reste au-dessus de l’eau est encore incertain Nous ne pouvons pas garantir à 100 pour cent que l’ouragan va traverser les Keys de la Floride du Sud, mais les chances sont assez élevées que nous re prévision de cela, et il ya un ouragan en garde là-bas. ”

25 Aug 2012 2017 GMT/UTC:
Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:24 PM GMT on August 25, 2012:
Tropical Storm Isaac is pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rains that are causing extremely dangerous flooding and landslides. Isaac’s center passed over Haiti’s southwest peninsula early this morning, tracking about 50 miles west of the capital of Port-au-Prince. As the center pulled away to the northwest, Isaac’s heaviest thunderstorms moved ashore over Hispaniola near sunrise, and are now dumping heavy rains with rainfall rates approaching one inch per hour, according to recent microwave satellite estimates. Barahona on the south coast of the Dominican Republic had received 5.14″ of rain as of 8 am EDT this morning, and it is probable that some mountainous areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic have already received up to 10″ of rain from Isaac. These rains will continue though much of the day, and have the potential to cause high loss of life in Hispaniola.
Spanish:
Tropical Storm Isaac está golpeando Haití y la República Dominicana con lluvias torrenciales que causan inundaciones y deslizamientos de tierra extremadamente peligroso. Centro de Isaac pasó por la península suroeste de Haití esta mañana, el seguimiento de cerca de 50 millas al oeste de la capital, Port-au-Prince. A medida que el centro se alejó hacia el noroeste, más fuertes tormentas de Isaac se trasladó a tierra a través de la salida del sol cerca de la Española, y ahora el dumping fuertes lluvias con la precipitación pluvial que se acerca una pulgada por hora, de acuerdo a las recientes estimaciones de microondas satelitales. Barahona, en la costa sur de la República Dominicana había recibido 5,14 “de lluvia a partir del 8 am EDT esta mañana, y es probable que algunas áreas montañosas de Haití y la República Dominicana ya han recibido hasta 10” de la lluvia de Isaac. Estas lluvias continuarán aunque gran parte del día, y tienen el potencial de causar grandes pérdidas de vida en La Española.
French:
La tempête tropicale Isaac bat Haïti et la République dominicaine avec des pluies torrentielles qui provoquent des inondations et des glissements de terrain extrêmement dangereux. Centre d’Isaac passé sur la péninsule sud-ouest d’Haïti ce matin, à environ 50 miles de suivi à l’ouest de la capitale Port-au-Prince. En tant que centre arrachée au nord-ouest, les plus lourds orages Isaac déplacé à terre sur Hispaniola près lever du soleil, et vident maintenant de fortes pluies avec des taux de précipitations approchant un pouce par heure, selon de récentes estimations satellitaires micro-ondes. Barahona, sur la côte sud de la République dominicaine avait reçu 5.14 “de pluie à partir de 8 h HAE ce matin, et il est probable que certaines régions montagneuses d’Haïti et la République dominicaine ont déjà reçu jusqu’à 10” de pluie Isaac. Ces pluies se poursuivront même si une grande partie de la journée, et ont le potentiel de causer des pertes de vie élevée à Hispaniola.
26 Aug 2012:

Killer Storm Isaac Leaves Four dead in Haiti and one in Dominican Republic

By Associated Press

HAVANA — Tropical Storm Isaac pushed over Cuba on Saturday after sweeping across Haiti’s southern peninsula, where it caused flooding and at least four deaths, adding to the misery of a poor nation still trying to recover from the terrible 2010 earthquake.

Isaac’s center made landfall just before midday near the far-eastern tip of Cuba, downing trees and power lines. In the picturesque city of Baracoa, the storm surge flooded the seaside Malecon and a block inland, destroying two homes.

Forecasters said Isaac poses a threat to Florida Monday and Tuesday, just as the Republican Party gathers for its national convention in Tampa. It could eventually hit the Florida Panhandle as a Category 2 hurricane with winds of nearly 100 mph (160 kph).

Florida Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency, officials urged vacationers to leave the Florida Keys and the U.S. National Hurricane Center said a hurricane warning was in effect there, as well as for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south to Ocean Reef and for Florida Bay.

At least four people were reported dead in Haiti including a 10-year-old girl who had a wall fall on her, according to the country’s Civil Protection Office. There were no immediate details on how the others died.

The government also reported two injuries; “considerable damage” to agriculture and homes; nearly 8,000 people who were evacuated from their houses or quake shelters; and more than 4,000 who were taken to temporary shelters.

Many, however, stayed and suffered.

The Grise River overflowed north of Port-au-Prince, sending chocolate-brown water spilling through the sprawling shantytown of Cite Soleil, where many people grabbed what possessions they could and carried them on their heads, wading through waist-deep water.

“From last night, we’re in misery,” said Cite Soleil resident Jean-Gymar Joseph. “All our children are sleeping in the mud, in the rain.”

Scores of tents in quake settlements collapsed. In a roadside lot in Cite Soleil, the dozens of tents and shelters provided by international groups after the earthquake were tossed to the ground like pieces of crumpled paper, and the occupants tried to save their belongings.

“They promised they were going to build us a sturdy home and it never came,” Jean-Robert Sauviren, an unemployed 63-year-old father of six said as he stood barefoot in the water and held aloft his arms. “Maybe we don’t deserve anything.”

Ricknel Charles, a 42-year-old pastor, sheltered some 50 displaced people in his church.

“This is the only thing I can do for them: give them a place to sleep,” Charles said.

About 300 homes in Cite Soleil lost their roofs or were flooded three feet (one meter) deep, according to Rachel Brumbaugh, operation manager for the U.S. nonprofit group World Vision.

Doctors Without Borders said it anticipated a spike in cholera cases due to flooding and it was preparing to receive more patients.

The international airport reopened by the afternoon but there was still extensive flooding throughout Port-au-Prince after 24 hours of steady rain.

Spanish:

Killer Storm Isaac hojas muertas en Haití Cuatro y uno en la República Dominicana

Por Associated Press

LA HABANA – La tormenta tropical Isaac empujó sobre Cuba el sábado después de barrer a través de la península sur de Haití, donde causó inundaciones y muertes por lo menos cuatro, sumando a la miseria de una nación pobre todavía está tratando de recuperarse de la terrible terremoto de 2010.

Centro de Isaac tocó tierra justo antes del mediodía cerca de la punta extremo oriental de Cuba, los árboles y derribando cables de electricidad. En la pintoresca ciudad de Baracoa, la tormenta inundó el malecón costero y un bloque de tierra adentro, destruyendo dos casas.

Los meteorólogos dijeron que Isaac representa una amenaza a Florida el lunes y martes, al igual que el Partido Republicano se reúne para su convención nacional en Tampa. Con el tiempo, podría llegar a la península de Florida como un huracán de categoría 2 con vientos de casi 100 mph (160 kph).

Gobernador de Florida, Rick Scott, declaró el estado de emergencia, las autoridades instaron a los turistas abandonar los Cayos de la Florida y los EE.UU. Centro Nacional de Huracanes dijo una advertencia de huracán estaba en efecto allí, así como para la costa oeste de Florida desde el sur hasta Bonita Beach Ocean Reef y Florida Bay.

Al menos cuatro personas murieron en Haití, entre ellos una niña de 10 años de edad, quien sufrió una caída en la pared, según la Oficina del país de Protección Civil. No hubo detalles inmediatos sobre la forma en que los otros murieron.

El Gobierno también informó de dos lesiones; “daños considerables” a la agricultura y los hogares; cerca de 8.000 personas que fueron evacuadas de sus casas o refugios del terremoto, y más de 4.000 que fueron llevados a los refugios temporales.

Muchos, sin embargo, se quedó y sufrió.

El Grise desbordes del río al norte de Port-au-Prince, el envío de color chocolate se derrame agua a través de la extensa barriada de Cite Soleil, donde mucha gente lo tomó posesiones que pudieron y los llevó sobre sus cabezas, vadeando a través de agua hasta la cintura.

“Desde anoche, estamos en la miseria”, dijo el residente de Cité Soleil, Jean-Joseph Gymar. “Todos nuestros niños están durmiendo en el barro, bajo la lluvia.”

Decenas de tiendas de campaña en los asentamientos del terremoto derrumbó. En muchas carreteras en Cité Soleil, las docenas de tiendas de campaña y refugios proporcionados por los grupos internacionales tras el terremoto fueron arrojados al suelo como pedazos de papel arrugado, y sus ocupantes trataron de salvar sus pertenencias.

“Nos prometieron que nos iban a construir un hogar estable y nunca llegó”, dijo Jean-Robert Sauviren, un desempleado de 63 años de edad, padre de seis hijos, dijo mientras permanecía de pie descalzo en el agua y en alto sus brazos. “Tal vez no merecemos nada”.

Ricknel Charles, un pastor de 42 años de edad, al abrigo de unas 50 personas desplazadas en su iglesia.

“Esta es la única cosa que puedo hacer por ellos: darles un lugar para dormir”, dijo Charles.

Cerca de 300 viviendas en Cité Soleil quedaron sin techo o se inundaron tres pies (un metro) de profundidad, según Rachel Brumbaugh, gerente de operaciones de la Visión Mundial EE.UU. sin fines de lucro grupo.

Médicos Sin Fronteras dijo que prevé un aumento en los casos de cólera debido a las inundaciones y se prepara para recibir a más pacientes.

El aeropuerto internacional volvió a abrir por la tarde, pero aún había grandes inundaciones en todo Port-au-Prince, después de 24 horas de lluvia continua.

French:

Tueur de tempête Isaac Feuilles Quatre morts en Haïti et l’autre en République Dominicaine

Par Associated Press

LA HAVANE – La tempête tropicale Isaac poussé sur Cuba le samedi après déferle sur la péninsule sud d’Haïti, où il a causé des inondations et au moins quatre morts, en ajoutant à la misère d’un pays pauvre encore en train de se remettre de la terrible tremblement de terre de 2010.

Centre Isaac a touché terre juste avant midi près de la pointe extrême-orientale de Cuba, les arbres et les lignes électriques Downing. Dans la pittoresque ville de Baracoa, l’onde de tempête a inondé le Malecon et un bloc intérieur des terres, détruisant deux maisons.

Les prévisionnistes dit Isaac constitue une menace pour la Floride lundi et mardi, tout comme le Parti républicain se réunit pour sa convention nationale à Tampa. Il pourrait éventuellement frapper la péninsule de la Floride comme un ouragan de catégorie 2 avec des vents de près de 100 mph (160 kmh).

Floride gouverneur Rick Scott a déclaré l’état d’urgence, les responsables demandé aux vacanciers de quitter les Keys de Floride et le US National Hurricane Center dit un avertissement d’ouragan est en vigueur là-bas, ainsi que pour la côte ouest de la Floride du sud pour Bonita Beach Ocean Reef et pour la baie de Floride.

Au moins quatre personnes ont été déclarées mortes en Haïti, y compris une fillette de 10 ans qui a fait une chute sur son mur, selon le Bureau du pays de la protection civile. Il n’y avait pas de détails sur la façon immédiats les autres sont morts.

Le gouvernement a également fait état de deux blessés; “des dégâts considérables” pour l’agriculture et les maisons; près de 8.000 personnes qui ont été évacuées de leurs maisons ou des abris du tremblement de terre, et plus de 4.000 qui ont été prises pour des abris temporaires.

Beaucoup, cependant, sont restés et ont souffert.

La rivière Grise débordé au nord de Port-au-Prince, l’envoi de brun chocolat humidifier le bidonville tentaculaire à travers de Cité Soleil, où beaucoup de gens saisi ce qu’ils pouvaient biens et les emportèrent sur leurs têtes, pataugeant dans l’eau jusqu’à la taille.

“De la nuit dernière, nous sommes dans la misère», a déclaré Cité Soleil résident Jean-Joseph Gymar. «Tous nos enfants dorment dans la boue, sous la pluie.”

Des dizaines de tentes dans les campements du tremblement de terre s’est effondrée. Dans beaucoup en bordure de route à Cité Soleil, des dizaines de tentes et des abris fournis par des groupes internationaux, après le tremblement de terre ont été jetés sur le sol comme des morceaux de papier froissé, et les occupants ont essayé de sauver leurs biens.

“Ils ont promis qu’ils allaient nous construire une maison solide et il n’est jamais venu», Jean-Robert Sauviren, un chômeur de 63 ans, père de six enfants a dit qu’il était pieds nus dans l’eau et a brandi ses bras. “Peut-être que nous ne méritons pas quoi que ce soit.”

Ricknel Charles, un pasteur de 42 ans, à l’abri quelque 50 personnes déplacées dans son église.

«C’est la seule chose que je peux faire pour eux: leur donner un endroit pour dormir», dit Charles.

Environ 300 maisons à Cité Soleil ont perdu leurs toits ont été inondées ou trois pieds (un mètre) de profondeur, selon Rachel Brumbaugh, directrice des opérations pour la vision américaine à but non lucratif du monde groupe.

Médecins Sans Frontières a déclaré qu’il s’attend à un pic de cas de choléra dus aux inondations et il se préparait à recevoir plus de patients.

La réouverture de l’aéroport international de l’après-midi, mais il y avait encore d’importantes inondations à travers Port-au-Prince après 24 heures de pluie continue.

26 Aug 2012 1806 GMT/UTC: About 20 minutes ago – “The center of Tropical Storm #Isaac is 50 miles south-southeast of Key West.”  (@NWSKeyWest)
26 Aug 2012 2351 GMT/UTC: Huge evacuation of BP workers from Gulf #oil rigs now underway – CNN
28 Aug 2012: Organizers, delegates remain concerned about Isaac as RNC gets under way – http://bit.ly/OHLozk

29 Aug 2012:

Leeve overflows: 75 rescued in Plaquemines Parish – 25 still stranded

BRAITHWAITE, La. —  Rescue workers and public citizens rescued 75 people from flooded homes and rooftops from the town of Braithwaite after it was inundated with 10-12 feet of water, Parish President Billy Nungesser said Wednesday morning.Eyewitness News’ Maya Rodriguez said 25 people were still reportedly awaiting rescue on the parish’s east bank on rooftops and in attics. – WWLTV.com
More here
30 Aug 2012:

Dam expected to fail – Mandatory evacuation near Tangipahoa River – risk to 40,000 to 60,000 people

BATON ROUGE — Tangipahoa Parish officials have issued a mandatory evacuation for communities near the Tangipahoa River because Percy Quin Dam in Mississippi is expected to fail, officials said Thursday. The dam in Pike County is in imminent danger of failure due to flooding from Hurricane Isaac, officials said.

U.S. Rep. Steve Scalise announced that parish President Gordon Burgess called for immediate, mandatory evacuation on his Facebook page, saying the dam on Lake Tangipahoa is in “extreme danger” of failing.

The evacuation area runs from Kentwood to Robert along the river, he said.

State Police Superintendent Col. Mike Edmonson said Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness head Kevin Davis was on his way to Tangipahoa to work with Burgess on the evacuation. The National Guard has a helicopter hovering over the dam to monitor the situation, Edmonson said. As of 10:45 the structure was still holding, he said. – nola.com

Gov @BobbyJindal: Could be between 40k-60k people affected by the flooding in Tangipahoa if dam breaks

US: DEBBY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA (NHCAdv16) – 27 June 2012 1010 GMT/UTC

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NWS Tallahasee, FL Local Doppler Radars

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Moody AFB, GA (KVAX)
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The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar at Moody AFB, GA.  Click on the image for additional options.

Eglin AFB, FL (KEVX)
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The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar at Eglin AFB, FL.  Click on the image for additional options.

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The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar that serves Tallahassee, FL.  Click on the image for additional options.

POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY (CLICK HERE FOR JAX BRIEFING)…

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 27 Jun, 2012 9:00 GMT

Tropical Depression DEBBY (AL04) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States
probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

N Atlántico: Alerta de tormenta emitido al 27 de junio 2012 09:00 GMT

Tropical DEBBY Depresión (AL04) se prevé que la huelga de la tierra a la probabilidad siguiente (s) en el plazo de entrega determinado (s):
País alerta amarilla (s) o de la Provincia (s)
los Estados Unidos
probabilidad de TS es del 90% en la actualidad
Amarillo Ciudad Alerta (s) y Ciudad (s)
Orlando (29,0 N, 81,5 W)
probabilidad de TS es del 55% en la actualidad

Nótese que
Alerta amarilla (elevada) es CAT 1 o superior a entre 10% y 30% de probabilidad, o TS anteriormente probabilidad del 50%.
CAT 1 significa que vientos huracanados de fuerza de por lo menos 74 mph, 119 km / ho 64 nudos 1-min sostenida.
TS significa vientos fuerza de tormenta tropical de al menos 39 mph, 63 km / ho 34 nudos 1-min sostenida.

Para información de los pronósticos gráfica y otros detalles por favor visite http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

000
WTNT34 KNHC 270831
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
500 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

…DEBBY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST OF
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.6N 81.0W
ABOUT 25 MI…45 KM SE OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH…17
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…DEBBY
SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM FLORIDA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE…ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTS OF FLORIDA SHOULD SUBSIDE
LATER TODAY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH DEBBY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE LINGERING
RAIN BANDS…MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTCA44 TJSJ 270931
TCPSP4

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA  NUMERO  16
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL042012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM EDT MIERCOLES 27 DE JUNIO DE 2012

…DEBBY MENOS ORGANIZADA MIENTRAS ALCANZA LA COSTA ESTE DEL NORTE
CENTRAL DE FLORIDA…

RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMACION
————————————————–
LOCALIZACION…29.6 NORTE 81.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 25 MI…45 KM AL SURESTE DE ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL…ESTE NORESTE O 75 GRADOS A 10 MPH…17 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA…998 MB…29.47 PULGADAS

VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
——————–
NO HAY VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
—————————————————
A LAS 5:00 AM EDT…0900 UTC…EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL
DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.6 NORTE…LONGITUD
81.0 OESTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A
CERCA DE 10 MPH…17 KM/H. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE
TRASLACION. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA…DEBBY DEBERA ALEJARSE
GRADUALMENTE DE FLORIDA HOY.

VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH…55 KM/H…CON
RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN SU INTENSIDAD
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 998 MB…29.47 PULGADAS.

PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
————————-
MAREJADA CICLONICA…NIVELES ALTOS DE AGUA EN AREAS DONDE LAS AGUAS
NORMALMENTE FLUYEN SOBRE LA COSTA A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DEL
SUROESTE Y NORESTE DE FLORIDA DEBEN DISMINUIR MAS TARDE HOY. PARA
INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA…FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.

LLUVIA…SE ESPERA QUE LAS LLUVIAS ASOCIADAS A DEBBY CONTINUEN
DISMINUYENDO A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA MAS TARDE HOY.
CANTIDADES AISLADAS ADICIONALES DE HASTA UNA PULGADA SON POSIBLES EN
LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE DEBBY…MAYORMENTE SOBRE EL SUR DE FLORIDA.

PROXIMAS ADVERTENCIAS
———————
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA…1100 AM EDT.

$$

PRONOSTICADORES AVILA

000
WTNT44 KNHC 270832
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
500 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

SATELLITE…RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF DEBBY IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING ELONGATED. THE CENTER
IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION…BUT THE AREA
OF MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 075
DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS IN A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
FLORIDA ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL
PROBABLY 30 KNOTS IN A FEW SQUALLS MAINLY OVER WATER.

NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH…AND IN FACT…BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST
WEAKENING IN THE 00 UTC RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS DEBBY AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALLOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEYOND 3
DAYS.

DEBBY IS EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH…AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR
NORTHEAST AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 29.6N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH…OVER WATER
12H  27/1800Z 30.0N  79.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  28/0600Z 30.5N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  28/1800Z 31.0N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  29/0600Z 32.0N  70.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  30/0600Z 35.0N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  01/0600Z 38.0N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 45.5N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT44 TJSJ 270832
TCDAT4

DEBBY DEPRESION TROPICAL NÚMERO 16 DE DEBATE
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042012
500 AM EDT MIERCOLES 27 de junio 2012

Las observaciones de radar … Y SATÉLITE superficie indica que el
CIRCULACIÓN DE DEBBY es cada vez más alargada. EL CENTRO
Es difícil de localizar Dada la falta de organización … PERO LA ZONA
DE PRESION MINIMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE O ESTE-075
GRADOS a 9 nudos en el noreste de la Florida Central. LA MAYORÍA DE LAS PROFUNDIDADES
CONVECCIÓN está en una banda tipo frontal AMPLIACIÓN DEL NORESTE
A TRAVES DE LA FLORIDA Atlántico adyacente. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SON TODAVÍA
Probablemente 30 nudos con una TURBONADAS PRINCIPALMENTE sobre el agua.

NINGUNA DE LAS DIRECTRICES DE INTENSIDAD muestran un aumento significativo EN
Fuerza … Y, de hecho … Tanto el modelo GFS y ECMWF dan a entender
Debilitamiento en el RUN 00 UTC. El pronóstico oficial DEBBY MANTIENE COMO
DEPRESION TROPICAL Y PERMITE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE más allá de 3
DÍAS.

DEBBY está incrustado en flujo del oeste dentro de la base A MEDIADOS DE LA LATITUD
A TRAVÉS DE … y debe seguir para avanzar en la ESTE-NORESTE O
NORESTE DE LO INDICADO POR LOS MODELOS GLOBALES. LA PREVISIÓN OFICIAL
En medio de la GFS y ECMWF MODELOS.

POSICIONES DE PREVISIÓN Y Vientos máximos

INIT 29.6N 81.0W 27/0900Z 30 KT 35 MPH … SOBRE EL AGUA
12H 30.0N 79.4W 27/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30.5N 76.5W 28/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31.0N 73.0W 28/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 32.0N 70.5W 29/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 35.0N 66.5W 30/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 38.0N 62.0W 01/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 45.5N 50.0W 02/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

A man has been captured on film using a wind created by tropical storm Debby to leap over an entire pier at Redington Beach, Florida, according to the Telegraph.

The gale-force winds, which have been measuring up to 50 miles per hour, lift him totally clear of the structure.

The video was taken by onlooker Jay Gartner, who uploaded it onto YouTube on Sunday, and it has since been viewed over 300,000 times. – AOL