US/ Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN 17L 25/1500Z 25.6N 94.4W, moving N ~14.03kt 1006 mb (NHC FL) – Published 25 Oct 2019 1930Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN 17L

(Future Cyclone OLGA)

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A GALE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL LOW TONIGHT…NHC FL

 

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

143243_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

000
WTNT32 KNHC 251431
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A GALE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL LOW TONIGHT…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…25.6N 94.4W
ABOUT 320 MI…515 KM SSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in
effect.

Please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service and products from local National Weather Service forecast
offices for information on the non-tropical watches and warnings
associated with this system.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Seventeen was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 94.4 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
motion toward the north-northeast at a faster forward speed is
expected this afternoon through Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone should move across the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico this afternoon and then move over the northern Gulf coast
tonight or Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected today, and the depression could
become a tropical storm this afternoon. The cyclone is then
expected to merge with a cold front and become a post-tropical low
with gale-force winds tonight before the center reaches the Gulf
coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the depression this afternoon.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Gale-force winds associated with this system should spread
over portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight and Saturday
morning.

RAINFALL: The depression and rainfall ahead of the system along and
north of the frontal boundary across the Central Gulf coast is
expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
with maximum totals of 8 inches across the Central Gulf coast into
the Lower Mississippi Valley through Saturday morning. These rains
may produce flash flooding across the Central Gulf coast into the
Lower Mississippi Valley.

COASTAL FLOODING: Above-normal tides and associated coastal
flooding are possible across portions of the northern Gulf coast.
Please see products from local National Weather Service forecast
offices for additional information.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible through tonight across
southeast portions of Louisiana and Mississippi into southwest
Alabama.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 18 Oct, 2019 9:00 GMT

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 25 Oct, 2019 15:00 GMT

Tropical Depression AL17 is currently located near 25.6 N 94.4 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). AL17 is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours
    Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT22 KNHC 251431
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172019
1500 UTC FRI OCT 25 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN
EFFECT.

PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND PRODUCTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES FOR INFORMATION ON THE NON-TROPICAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 94.4W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 94.4W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 94.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.2N 93.1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 80NE 0SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 32.6N 91.3W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 38.1N 89.1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 43.2N 85.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 94.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

FZNT01 KWBC 251604
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC FRI OCT 25 2019

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

METAREA IV BULLETIN WILL ONLY BE BROADCAST FROM THE INMARSAT
AOE SATELLITE. PLEASE ENSURE YOUR RECEIVER IS POINTED
CORRECTLY.

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
ATLANTIC ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.SHTML
(LOWERCASE EXCEPT CAPITAL A IN ATL).

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 27.

.WARNINGS.

…STORM WARNING…
.LOW E OF AREA 36N33W 992 MB MOVING E 10 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS FROM 32N TO 42N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT.
SEAS 16 TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 31N TO 47N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA 36N28W 999 MB. NEW LOW 38N53W
1008 MB RAPDILY INTENSIFYING. FROM 31N TO 38N BETWEEN 35W AND
38W N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT IN N SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM
31N TO 42N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO
14 FT IN N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FIRST LOW WELL E OF AREA 41N23W 1000 MB.
SECOND LOW 41N48W 978 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 40
TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 31N TO 43N BETWEEN
35W AND 62W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.FROM 50N TO 55N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 47N TO 55N BETWEEN 35W AND 52W
WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 53N43W 1016 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NE
QUADRANT AND FROM 45N TO 50N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 42N TO 58N WINDS LESS THAN 25
KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW MEAN CENTER 55N43W 1004 MB. WITHIN
180 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 43N TO 60N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 59N58W 1003 MB MOVING NW 20 KT. WITHIN 270 NM N OF LINE
FROM 65N63W TO 55N48W SE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 18
FT…HIGHEST NEAR 67N57W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 65N66W 1006 MB. WITHIN 120 NM N
OF LINE FROM 67N61W TO 60N50W SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 60N BETWEEN 47W AND 63W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW N OF AREA. CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 55N TO 60N W OF 57W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 50N TO 55N W OF 54W NW TO N WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

.DENSE FOG. 24 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 55N TO 62N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 50N TO 55N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W.

.HIGH 39N67W 1028 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N61W 1021 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 63N39W 1026 MB MOVING SE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF AREA 60N33W 1022 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF AREA.

.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 31N54W 1022 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 27.

.WARNINGS.

…GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING…
.COLD FRONT FROM 30N94.5W TO 23N96W TO 22N98W. W OF FRONT NW TO
N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN NEAR 25.6N 94.4W 1006 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 25 MOVING N
OR 010 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
WITHIN 120 NM E AND 45 NM W SEMICIRCLES OF T.D. WINDS 25 TO 30
KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 22.5N BETWEEN 88W AND 95W SE
TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N89W TO 18N93W. POST-
TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL SEVENTEEN INLAND NEAR 32.6N 91.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. S OF 28.5N W OF FRONT
NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT…HIGHEST S OF 20N. SEAS 8 TO 15
FT…HIGHEST S OF 21N. N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N84.5W TO 18.5N93W. POST-
TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL SEVENTEEN NEAR 43.2N 85.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. S OF 20N BETWEEN 92.5W AND
94.5W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN N SWELL.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC COLD FRONT FROM 24.5N35W TO 20.5N48W. WITHIN 120 NM SE OF
FRONT E OF 38W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. N OF
28N E OF 46W NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT…EXCEPT NW TO W WINDS 20
TO 25 KT E OF 38W. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT WITH N SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF
24N E OF 53W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN N SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 21.5N35W TO 18.5N43W. N OF 19N
E OF 59W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 19 FT IN N TO NE
SWELL…HIGHEST NE PART.
.48 HOUR FORECAST STATIONARY FRONT FROM 21N35W TO 17.5N45W. N OF
12.5N E OF 65W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN N TO NE
SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

United States/Gulf of Mexico: Potential Tropical Cyclone SIXTEEN (16L) 18/1500Z 25.9N 90.0W, moving NE ~18.8kt. Wind ~52.1kt 1001mb (NHC FL) – Updated 1520Z (GMT/UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone SIXTEEN (16L)

(Future Tropical Storm NESTOR)

…NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE SYSTEM STRONGER…
…DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

145015_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

000
WTNT31 KNHC 181449
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

…NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE SYSTEM STRONGER…
…DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC...INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…25.9N 90.0W
ABOUT 230 MI…365 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 395 MI…635 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 25.9 North, longitude 90.0 West. The system is moving
toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Sunday, followed by a turn toward
the east-northeast by early Monday. On the forecast track, the
system will approach the northern Gulf Coast later today and tonight
and move inland across portions of the southeastern United States on
Saturday and Sunday. The system is forecast to move offshore of the
coast of North Carolina by late Sunday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected later today, with
weakening forecast after the system moves inland.

The disturbance is expected to become a tropical or subtropical
storm later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km),
mainly to the northeast and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL…3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL…2 to 4 ft
Tampa Bay…1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area by later today and this evening, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible tonight and early Saturday
near the Florida Gulf Coast from the central panhandle to the
western peninsula.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 18 Oct, 2019 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm AL16 is currently located near 24.3 N 92.5 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). AL16 is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States
probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tallahassee (30.4 N, 84.3 W)
probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
Myrtle Beach (33.7 N, 79.1 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
Columbia (34.0 N, 81.0 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Mobile (30.7 N, 88.1 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Raleigh (35.8 N, 78.6 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Charlotte (35.2 N, 80.8 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours
Capeville (37.2 N, 75.9 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT21 KNHC 181446
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019
1500 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 90.0W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…….120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 90.0W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 91.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 27.8N 88.0W…TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…140NE 160SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.9N 85.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…100NE 150SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.2N 82.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.4N 78.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…130NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 37.0N 71.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 37.0N 69.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 90.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1…AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

FZNT01 KWBC 180933
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1030 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

METAREA IV BULLETIN WILL ONLY BE BROADCAST FROM THE INMARSAT
AOE SATELLITE. PLEASE ENSURE YOUR RECEIVER IS POINTED
CORRECTLY.

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
ATLANTIC ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.SHTML
(LOWERCASE EXCEPT CAPITAL A IN ATL).

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 18.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 19.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 20.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW INLAND NEAR 45N66W 987 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS FROM 36N TO 52N BETWEEN 51W AND 75W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 21 FT…HIGHEST NEAR 42N64W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N59W 992 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE
LOW TO 57N54W TO 55N49W TO 49N50W TO 40N47W. WITHIN 300 NM N AND
NE OF THE FRONT WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N58W 997 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW OF A FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM 57N61W TO 61N52W AND N OF 63N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. ALSO WITHIN 60 NM SE OF A
LINE FROM 60N43W TO 60N44W TO 60N47W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO
12 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 65N56W 1004 MB MOVING NW 20 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
120 NM NE AND 240 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO
16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS N OF AREA.

…GALE WARNING…
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 51N47W 996 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS NE
OF A FRONT FROM 59N41W TO THE LOW TO 35N47W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL SIXTEEN INLAND 34N81W 1004 MB.
OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 31N TO 35N W OF 74W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 90 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 61N41W TO
59N45W AREA OF N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.LOW E OF AREA NEAR 42N29W 1012 MB MOVING SE 30 KT. OVER
FORECAST WATERS FROM 38N TO 43N E OF 38W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 10
TO 12 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF A LINE FROM 56N40W TO 49N36W AREA OF
W TO NW WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.24 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF A LINE FROM 65N39W
TO 64N37W AREA OF W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.DENSE FOG. 24 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 55N61W TO
53N54W TO 43N50W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 45N TO 58N BETWEEN 41W AND 50W.

.HIGH 33N38W 1023 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 47N39W 1024 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF AREA.

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 34N66W 1019 MB.

.FORECASTER BELL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC FRI OCT 18.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT OCT 19.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN OCT 20.

.WARNINGS.

…GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN NEAR 24.3N 92.5W 1004 MB AT
0900 UTC OCT 18 MOVING NE OR 045 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100
NM E SEMICIRCLE. SEAS TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NW AND
150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SIXTEEN NEAR 29.0N 87.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM W SEMICIRCLE…120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 150 NM
SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM NW AND 180 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 30N
BETWEEN 82W AND 90W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL SIXTEEN N OF AREA
NEAR 33.5N 80.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE…100 NM NE
QUADRANT AND 150 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
210 NM SE SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. OVER FORECAST WATERS NW
OF LINE FROM 31N74W TO 27N80W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8
TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL SIXTEEN NEAR 37.0N
72.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL SIXTEEN NEAR 37.5N
69.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC 24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 22N E OF 40W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 9 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 26N TO 29N E OF 40W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED N AND NE SWELL.

.ATLC 24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N61W TO 24N69W. N OF
30N WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN
NW SWELL. N OF 30N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 8 FT IN N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N52W TO 24N59W. N OF 29.5N E
OF FRONT TO 48W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NW TO N
SWELL.

.ATLC 30 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N W OF 78W SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N W OF 74W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS TO 12 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

US/Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Storm BARRY 13/1200Z 29.3N 91.9W, moving NW ~3.7kt/5mph 991mb, expected to be a #hurricane when the center reaches the LA coast during the next several hours(NHC) – Updated 13 Jul 1430Z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL STORM BARRY AL02

 

………BARRY GETS A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT NEARS THE LOUISIANA COAST…
…DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST…..Barry is expected to be a hurricane when the
center reaches the Louisiana coast during the next several hours..NHC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

SEE UPDATES IN COMMENTS AT BOTTOM OF PAGE

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

Storm Surge
Watch/Warning (link)

115242_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

 

 

NWS radar Image from New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

000
WTNT32 KNHC 131152
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
700 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

…BARRY GETS A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT NEARS THE LOUISIANA COAST…
…DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST…
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.3N 91.9W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM WSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…991 MB…29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 91.9 West. Barry is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a turn
toward the north is expected tonight or Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Barry will make landfall along the
south-central Louisiana coast during the next several hours.
After landfall, Barry is expected to move generally northward
through the Mississippi Valley through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near near 70 mph
(115 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast
before landfall, and Barry is expected to be a hurricane when the
center reaches the Louisiana coast during the next several hours.
Steady weakening is expected after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. The National Ocean Service station at Eugene
Island, Louisiana recently reported sustained winds of 71 mph and a
wind gust of 85 mph.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 991 mb (29.26 inches). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Barry.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Intracoastal City to Shell Beach…3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS…3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain…3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border…2 to 4 ft
Lake Maurepas…1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and
southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches.
These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening
flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley beginning as early as later this morning. Across
the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. By early next week, Barry is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across western
portions of the Tennessee Valley.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area later this morning, with tropical storm conditions currently
spreading across the area. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area later this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are occurring across the Tropical Storm Warning area in
southeastern Louisiana at this time. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later today. Wind gusts
to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of
the coasts of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through
tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
the southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Local Products

Issuing WFO Homepage Local Impacts Local Statement
New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA Threats and Impacts 457 AM CDT Sat Jul 13
Lake Charles, LA Threats and Impacts 503 AM CDT Sat Jul 13


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 13 Jul, 2019 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm BARRY is currently located near 29.1 N 91.8 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). BARRY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)
        probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

Other

DocR B13

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Offshore Waters Forecast (Gulf of Mexico)

000
FZNT24 KNHC 130845
OFFNT4

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

GMZ001-132045-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS…Tropical Storm Barry near 29.1N 91.8W 993 mb at 5 AM
EDT moving WNW at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt.
Barry is forecast to reach hurricane strength as it nears the
coast just prior to landfall. Barry will move inland to 29.8N
92.1W this afternoon, to 30.9N 92.6W Sun morning, weaken to a
tropical depression near 32.3N 92.9W Sun afternoon, to 33.8N 93.0W
Mon morning, and 35.0N 93.0W Tue morning. Barry will become a
remnant low as it moves to 36.5N 92.5W early Wed, and dissipate by
Thu. Winds and seas will diminish and subside across the basin Sun
into early next week as high pres ridging builds westward across
the basin.

$$

GMZ011-132045-
NW Gulf including Stetson Bank-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.TODAY…W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…S to SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…S to SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN NIGHT…S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ013-132045-
N Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine Sanctuary-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TODAY…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. S to SW winds 30 to 40 kt.
Seas 9 to 14 ft. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. S winds 25 to 30
kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN NIGHT…S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.MON…SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ015-132045-
NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87W-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.TODAY…SE winds 15 to 20 kt S of 27N, and SE to S 20 to 25 kt
elsewhere. Seas 7 to 11 ft in W swell. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in W swell.
.SUN…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED…E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED NIGHT…SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ017-132045-
W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94W-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.TODAY…S to SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in
the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ019-132045-
Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.TODAY…SE to S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in W to NW
swell. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SUN…SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ021-132045-
E Gulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.TODAY…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED NIGHT…E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ023-132045-
SW Gulf S of 22N W of 94W-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.TODAY…SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ025-132045-
E Bay of Campeche including Campeche Bank-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.TODAY…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

Forecaster Lewitsky

High Seas Forecast (Tropical Atlantic)

000
FZNT02 KNHC 130849
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT JUL 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUL 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUL 15.

.WARNINGS.

…GULF OF MEXICO HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM BARRY NEAR 29.1N 91.8W 993 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL 13
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE
QUADRANT…150 NM SE QUADRANT…130 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 70 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM NE QUADRANT…
180 NM SE QUADRANT…60 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 22N89W TO 30N93W TO 27N89W
TO 31N88W TO 27N84W TO 22N89W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE BARRY 29.4N 91.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM
NE QUADRANT…150 NM SE QUADRANT…130 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 70
NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM NE
QUADRANT…270 NM SE QUADRANT…90 NM SW QUADRANT AND 0 NM NW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 24N90W TO 26N94W TO
30N93W TO 28N89W TO 29N84W TO 24N90W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8
TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BARRY INLAND NEAR 30.9N 92.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NE QUADRANT…150 NM SE QUADRANT…105 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 0 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 150 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 27N90W TO 27N94W TO 29N94W TO 30N90W TO 29N86W
TO 27N90W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY INLAND NEAR 33.8N
93.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY NEAR 35.0N 93.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BARRY NEAR 36.5N
92.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC WITHIN 12N40W TO 12N41W TO 13N40W TO 12N40W NE TO E WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 13N46W TO 12N48W TO 13N48W TO 13N47W TO
13N46W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 14N54W TO 12N55W TO 14N60W TO 16N59W TO
16N56W TO 14N54W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.

.CARIBBEAN WITHIN 11N71W TO 11N75W TO 13N77W TO 14N75W TO 14N72W
TO 11N71W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 11N74W TO 12N78W TO 17N73W TO 18N72W TO
15N72W TO 11N74W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 11N71W TO 11N75W TO 14N77W TO 17N73W TO
15N70W TO 11N71W E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.CARIBBEAN WITHIN 16N86W TO 16N87W TO 16N88W TO 18N88W TO 18N86W
TO 16N86W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

US(TX/LA/MS/TN): Tropical Depression Harvey 31/0300Z update (NHC FL) – Updated 31 Aug 2017 0920z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Harvey

…FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana.

…..catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur,
and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week

 

at201709_5day TD HARVEY WUND

(Image: @wunderground)

at201709_sat TD HARVEY WUND

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

030124_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind TD HARVEY

avn_lalo-animated TD HARVEY

030124WPCQPF_sm rain 31

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

…FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…31.7N 92.3W
ABOUT 30 MI…50 KM NNE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM SE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 92.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the
northeast is expected Thursday or Thursday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Harvey should move through central Louisiana
tonight, then move through northeastern Louisiana and northwestern
Mississippi Thursday and Thursday night, and over the Tennessee
Valley region on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the
adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Tennessee and Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 12
inches. The threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/
Galveston area. However catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur,
and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. The
expected heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into
western Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river
and small stream flooding. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED
AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED
ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for additional information on this
life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into
parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic
through Saturday. These rains may lead to flooding concerns across
these areas.

A list of preliminary rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northwestern and northern
Gulf coast should subside very slowly over the next day or two.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight across parts of
Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Additional
tornadoes are possible on Thursday afternoon and evening across
northern portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and into parts
of Tennessee.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Harvey. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. These advisories will
also continue to be found on the National Hurricane Center website
at hurricanes.gov.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 31METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 300850

WTNT24 KNHC 310254
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES IN SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. PLEASE SEE WARNINGS
AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 92.3W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 92.3W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 92.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.4W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.5N 89.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.9N 87.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.0N 85.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 92.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER
WTNT34 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

 

=============================================================================

000
FZNT24 KNHC 310857
OFFNT4

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

GMZ001-312100-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS…Tropical Depression Harvey is inland over Louisiana.
As Harvey moves farther inland, a ridge will slowly build back
across the Gulf through the remainder of the week before a trough
develops over the western Gulf this weekend. An area of low pressure
could form along this trough over the southwestern Gulf by the
weekend.

$$

GMZ011-312100-
NW Gulf including Stetson Bank-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.TONIGHT…W to NW winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to SE to S. Seas
2 ft or less.
.FRI…S winds less than 5 kt, shifting to NE to E. Seas 2 ft or
less.
.FRI NIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, building to 3 ft in the
afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

GMZ013-312100-
N Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine Sanctuary-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft or
less.
.FRI NIGHT…SW winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to NE to E late. Seas
2 ft or less.
.SAT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN NIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, building to
3 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ015-312100-
NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt S of 27N, and S to SW 10 to 15 kt
elsewhere. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…W winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to SE to S late. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.SAT…SE winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.MON…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

$$

GMZ017-312100-
W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.TONIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

GMZ019-312100-
Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SE to S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt S of 24N, and E to SE 5 to 10 kt
elsewhere. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.FRI…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, building to
3 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt S of 24N, and E 5 to 10 kt
elsewhere. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SAT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

GMZ021-312100-
E Gulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E. Seas 3 ft,
subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.SAT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

GMZ023-312100-
SW Gulf S of 22N W of 94W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft
or less.
.TONIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…N winds 5 to 10 kt S of 21N W of 95W, and NE to E
10 to 15 kt elsewhere. Seas 2 ft or less. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…NE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to NW 5 to 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to W to NW in the
afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to E to SE
late. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

GMZ025-312100-
E Bay of Campeche including Campeche Bank-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning,
subsiding to 2 ft or less. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less,
building to 3 to 4 ft late. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening,
subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.SUN…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

Forecaster GR

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Gulf of Mexico: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three 20/1200Z nr 25.4N 90.3W, moving NW 08 kt (NHC FL) – Published 20 Jun 2017 1218z (GMT/UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AL03)

(Future TS Cindy)

A Tropical Storm Warning for…Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center FL

000
WTNT33 KNHC 201138
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
700 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

…DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.4N 90.3W
ABOUT 265 MI…430 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 300 MI…485 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* West of Cameron to High Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
25.4 North, longitude 90.3 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through Wednesday, with a turn toward the north expected
Wednesday night or Thursday. On the forecast track, the disturbance
is expected to be near the Louisiana coast late Wednesday or
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the
coast.

Satellite imagery shows that the center of the disturbance is
gradually become better defined, and it is likely that the system
will become a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
NOAA buoy 42001 just reported a pressure of 1000.6 mb (29.54
inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
10 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday
morning. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest
Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday morning.

STORM SURGE: Inundations of 1 to 3 feet are possible along the
coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight
from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 Jun, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm AL03 is currently located near 24.8 N 90.1 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). AL03 is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 35% currently
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
    Houston (29.8 N, 95.4 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201146
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
714 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

The center of Tropical Storm Bret, at 20/1200 UTC, is near 11.1N
63.6W, or about 17 nm to the ENE of La Isla de Margarita of
Venezuela. It is moving WNW westward, 290 degrees, 18 knots. The
maximum wind speeds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 knots. The
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Convective precipitation:
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Caribbean
Sea from 10N to 16N between 60W and 68W. Please read the NHC
Potential Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public
Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC for more details.

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three at 20/1200 UTC,
is near 25.4N 90.3W, about 230 nm to the SSW of the mouth of the
Mississippi River. It is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 8 knots. The
maximum wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. The
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Convective precipitation:
Scattered moderate to strong is in the waters from 26N to 30N
between 83W and 90W, and from 25N south between 83W and 87W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers inland areas
and coastal waters areas from the northern half of Guatemala
into the southern half of the Yucatan Peninsula, including in
the coastal waters of the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Please read the
NHC Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/ Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/35W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
03N to 08N southward between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/45W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, most
probably related to the ITCZ, from 06N to 08N between 40W and
46W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/71W from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
20N to 21N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N southward
between Puerto Rico and 73W.

…MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to
06N33W, and 03N43W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong
from 04N to 12N between 12W and 23W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 01N to 06N between 25W and 31W.

…DISCUSSION…

…THE GULF OF MEXICO…

A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough passes through southern
Louisiana, to a 26N94W cyclonic circulation center, to the Mexico
coast near 25N98W and 20N105W in Mexico. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in much of the
Gulf of Mexico, from 20N northward from 90W westward.

…CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD…

LIFR: none.

IFR: KGRY and KATP.

MVFR: KVQT, KMDJ, and KMIS.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA…

TEXAS: MVFR in McAllen, and in Huntsville. LOUISIANA: occasional
MVFR and areas of light rain from Patterson eastward to Lake
Pontchartain, and southeastward into the SE corner of the state.
MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in Natchez. light rain and LIFR in Pascagoula.
ALABAMA: MVFR and light rain in parts of the Mobile metropolitan
area. drizzle in Gulf Shores. light rain and LIFR in Fort Rucker
and Dothan. FLORIDA: rain, heavy at times, and LIFR conditions,
from Perry westward. LIFR/IFR around the Tampa/St. Petersburg
metropolitan area.

…THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of
the Caribbean Sea, with a 14N68W Caribbean Sea cyclonic
circulation center. Tropical Storm Bret is set to move into the
SE corner of the Caribbean Sea during the next 24 hours.

The Monsoon Trough extends from 09N74W in Colombia, through
Panama, northwestward through Costa Rica, and beyond, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 15N southward from 77W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 20/0000 UTC…according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES…MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC…are 1.06 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.10 in Curacao.

…HISPANIOLA…

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow, from an inverted
trough, is moving across the area. Rainshowers and thunder still
are possible across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS…for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Punta Cana: rain and thunder. VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist
of cyclonic wind flow, with the current N-to-S oriented trough.
Expect southerly wind flow during the first half of day two,
followed by anticyclonic wind flow during the second half of day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that day one will
consist of the rest of the inverted trough moving through the area
completely, during day one. Day one will end with SE wind flow
moving across Hispaniola. Expect SE wind flow during day two, with
an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that day one will consist of SE-to-E wind flow.
Expect cyclonic wind flow with a separate inverted trough, during
day two. Hispaniola will be on the southern side of an E-to-W
oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge.

…THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…

An upper level trough is anchored by a cyclonic circulation
center that is about 770 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico, to a 14N68W
Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation center. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
20N to 21N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N southward
between Puerto Rico and 73W. Rainshowers and thunder still are
possible across Hispaniola.

An upper level trough passes through 32N32W to 21N35W. A cold
front passes through 32N24W to 25N41W and 31N57W. Convective
precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers cover the area that is from 24N northward between 22W
and 60W, and elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward.
Widely scattered moderate is from 29N to 32N between 55W and 58W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US: Dog attack victim, 3, allegedly asked to leave KFC as her scars were ‘disturbing customers’ – Published 160614 1240z

SKY NEWS 6:01am UK, Monday 16 June 2014

KFC ‘Asked Girl To Leave Over Scarred Face’

KFC agrees to pay $30,000 towards the medical bills of Victoria Welcher, who was badly injured in a pitbull attack in April.

Victoria Welcher

A fast food chain has launched an investigation after a three-year-old was allegedly asked to leave a restaurant because her facial injuries were disturbing other customers.

Victoria Welcher, three, was badly injured during an attack by a pit bull dog in April which left her with facial scars and an eye patch.

KFC has said it has launched an investigation after a restaurant employee in Jackson, Mississippi, asked her to leave.

The company said it was also giving $30,000 towards her medical bills.

The allegation was made on Victoria’s Victories, a Facebook page set up to chart the little girl’s recovery after the attack.

A post on the page said: “Last week at KFC in Jackson MS this precious face was asked to leave because her face scared the other diners.”

Kelly Mullins, granny of Victoria Welcher
Kelly Mullins said Victoria now refuses to look in a mirror

KFC spokesman Rick Maynard said: “As soon as we were notified of this report on Friday, we immediately began an investigation, as this kind of hurtful and disrespectful action would not be tolerated by KFC.

“Regardless of the outcome of our investigation, we have apologised to Victoria’s family and are committed to assisting them.

“The company is making a $30,000 donation to assist with her medical bills.”

Victoria’s grandmother Kelly Mullins said they were returning from a doctor’s appointment when they stopped at the KFC.

She told WAPT-TV: “They just told us, they said, ‘we have to ask you to leave because her face is disrupting our customers’.

“She won’t even look in the mirror anymore. When we go to a store, she doesn’t even want to get out of the car.”

Victoria was attacked by pitbulls at her grandfather’s home.

She suffered a broken nose, jaw, cheekbones and right eye socket, lost her right eye and the right side of her face is paralysed, according to her Facebook page.

Source: http://news.sky.com/story/1283024/kfc-asked-girl-to-leave-over-scarred-face

(Video credit: YouTube Videos)

 

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