Japan/ West Pacific: Typhoon HAGIBIS (20W) 12/0700Z 34.1°N 138.3°E, moving NNE 35 km/h (19 kt) Wind 45 m/s (85 kt) Gust 60 m/s (120 kt) 945hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 12 Oct 2019 0758Z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON HAGIBIS (1919, 20W)

 HAGIBIS is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. (TSR UCL London data)

JAPAN – Emergency Weather Warnings in effect

The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued heavy rain emergency warnings for many parts of central and eastern Japan. The warnings are at the highest level on the agency’s five-step scale. The affected areas are: Shizuoka Prefecture, Kanagawa Prefecture, Tokyo, Saitama Prefecture, Gunma Prefecture, Yamanashi Prefecture and Nagano Prefecture.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000ZIS 40 FEET – JTWC

 

 

Emergency Weather Warnings in effect

The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued heavy rain emergency warnings for many parts of central and eastern Japan. The warnings are at the highest level on the agency’s five-step scale. The affected areas are: Shizuoka Prefecture, Kanagawa Prefecture, Tokyo, Saitama Prefecture, Gunma Prefecture, Yamanashi Prefecture and Nagano Prefecture.

 

VITAL INFORMATION FROM NHK JAPAN  https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/special/01/1919/

 

 

 

 

 

 

Himawari satellite (animation)  every 10 minutes / every 2.5 minutes

TY 1919 (Hagibis)
Issued at 07:40 UTC, 12 October 2019

<Analysis at 07 UTC, 12 October>
Scale	Large
Intensity	Very strong
Center position	N34°05′ (34.1°)
	E138°20′ (138.3°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure	945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	SE 330 km (180 NM)
	NW 260 km (140 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	E 650 km (350 NM)
	W 560 km (300 NM)
<Estimate for 08 UTC, 12 October>
Scale	Large
Intensity	Very strong
Center position	N34°25′ (34.4°)
	E138°25′ (138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure	945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	SE 330 km (180 NM)
	NW 260 km (140 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	E 650 km (350 NM)
	W 560 km (300 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 12 October>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N35°35′ (35.6°)
	E139°35′ (139.6°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 45 km/h (24 kt)
Central pressure	960 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle	40 km (20 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 370 km (200 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 12 October>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N37°55′ (37.9°)
	E141°50′ (141.8°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 55 km/h (31 kt)
Central pressure	975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle	60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 390 km (210 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 13 October>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N39°35′ (39.6°)
	E145°20′ (145.3°)
Direction and speed of movement	ENE 60 km/h (33 kt)
Central pressure	980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle	70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 390 km (210 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 13 October>
Intensity	–
	LOW
Center position of probability circle	N41°10′ (41.2°)
	E150°00′ (150.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	ENE 75 km/h (40 kt)
Central pressure	984 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle	90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 370 km (200 NM)

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Oct, 2019 0:00 GMT

Typhoon HAGIBIS is currently located near 32.1 N 137.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). HAGIBIS is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. HAGIBIS is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

 

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Typhoon 20W (Hagibis) Warning #28
Issued at 12/0300Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z — NEAR 32.1N 137.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 010 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.1N 137.4E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 35.5N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 30 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 39.5N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 40 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 44.1N 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
—
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 33.0N 138.0E.
12OCT19. TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 224 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

NHK News https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/?utm_int=error_contents_news

NHK LIVE TV https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/live/

JAPAN: The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued heavy rain emergency warnings for many parts of central and eastern Japan. The warnings are at the highest level on the agency’s five-step scale. The affected areas are: Shizuoka Prefecture, Kanagawa Prefecture, Tokyo, Saitama Prefecture, Gunma Prefecture, Yamanashi Prefecture and Nagano Prefecture.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 120600
WARNING 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1919 HAGIBIS (1919) 945 HPA
AT 33.7N 138.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 37.9N 141.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 41.2N 150.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

 

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Typhoon TAXAI (=CAT3 SSHWS) 08/1500Z 34.7°N 139.3°E, moving NNE 20km/h (12 kt) 955hPa wind 45m/s (85 kt) gust 60 m/s (120 kt)(RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 08 Sep 2019 1636Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon FAXAI 1915 14W

FAXAI is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (TSR UCL London data)

TOKYO BEWARE!

  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 45 FEET.- JTWC

 

 

 

 

TY 1915 (Faxai)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 8 September 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 8 September>
Scale	–
Intensity	Very strong
Center position	N34°40′ (34.7°)
	E139°20′ (139.3°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure	955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	SE 90 km (50 NM)
	NW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	E 220 km (120 NM)
	W 170 km (90 NM)
<Estimate for 16 UTC, 8 September>
Scale	–
Intensity	Very strong
Center position	N34°55′ (34.9°)
	E139°25′ (139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure	955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	SE 90 km (50 NM)
	NW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	E 220 km (120 NM)
	W 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 8 September>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N35°55′ (35.9°)
	E140°00′ (140.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure	975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle	40 km (20 NM)
Storm warning area	SE 130 km (70 NM)
	NW 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 9 September>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N37°00′ (37.0°)
	E141°20′ (141.3°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure	980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle	60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area	SE 150 km (80 NM)
	NW 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 9 September>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N38°00′ (38.0°)
	E142°55′ (142.9°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure	990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle	70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area	SE 160 km (85 NM)
	NW 120 km (65 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 9 September>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N38°50′ (38.8°)
	E145°00′ (145.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	ENE 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure	992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle	90 km (50 NM)

xxxx

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Sep, 2019 12:00 GMT

Typhoon FAXAI is currently located near 34.0 N 139.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 100 kts (115 mph). FAXAI is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. FAXAI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Typhoon 14W (Faxai) Warning #28
Issued at 08/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 34.0N 139.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 005 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.0N 139.1E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 36.5N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 38.6N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 21 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 40.6N 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 23 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 42.4N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
—
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 34.6N 139.6E.
08SEP19. TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 83 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z
AND 091500Z.//
NNNN

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

None

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP31 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1915 FAXAI (1915) 955 HPA
AT 34.7N 139.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 37.0N 141.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 38.8N 145.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Japan/ West Pacific: Severe Tropical Storm Saola 27W 291400Z nr 29.4N 130.2E, moving NE 55kt JMA – Updated 29 Oct 2017 1606z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Saola 27W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 28 FEET – JTWC

JMA is the lead agency in this area

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

STS 1722 (Saola)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 29 October 2017

<Analysis at 14 UTC, 29 October>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N36°30′ (36.5°)
	E143°00′ (143.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 100 km/h (55 kt)
Central pressure	985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	SE 170 km (90 NM)
	NW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	SE 500 km (270 NM)
	NW 390 km (210 NM)
<Estimate for 15 UTC, 29 October>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N37°30′ (37.5°)
	E144°25′ (144.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 100 km/h (55 kt)
Central pressure	985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	SE 170 km (90 NM)
	NW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	SE 500 km (270 NM)
	NW 390 km (210 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 30 October>
Intensity	–
	LOW
Center position of probability circle	N44°55′ (44.9°)
	E149°00′ (149.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 110 km/h (60 kt)
Central pressure	952 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle	70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area	SE 300 km (160 NM)
	NW 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 30 October>
Intensity	–
	LOW
Center position of probability circle	N49°10′ (49.2°)
	E153°05′ (153.1°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure	940 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle	150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area	SE 480 km (260 NM)
	NW 310 km (170 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 27W (Saola) Warning #40 Final Warning
Issued at 29/1500Z

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN33 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z — NEAR 34.4N 140.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 065 DEGREES AT 42 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.4N 140.4E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 40.1N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 46 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 47.2N 157.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
—
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 35.8N 142.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 64 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
42 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 27W IS ASSESSED AS AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH NO DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. TS 27W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW BUT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN STRONG-GALE
TO STORM-FORCE WINDS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 28
FEET.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Oct, 2017 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm SAOLA is currently located near 34.4 N 140.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). SAOLA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Petropavloski-Kamchatskiy (53.2 N, 158.7 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Other

 

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 291200

WTJP21 RJTD 291200
WARNING 291200.
WARNING VALID 301200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1722 SAOLA (1722) 985 HPA
AT 34.8N 141.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 45 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 44.9N 149.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
952 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 49.2N 153.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 291200

WWJP25 RJTD 291200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 291200.
WARNING VALID 301200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 992 HPA
AT 40N 144E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
400 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 984 HPA
AT 60N 149E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 60N 149E TO 59N 154E 57N 154E.
WARM FRONT FROM 57N 154E TO 55N 156E 52N 157E.
COLD FRONT FROM 57N 154E TO 55N 150E 48N 146E 42N 139E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN WESTERN PART OF SEA OF JAPAN.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
YELLOW SEA.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER EAST
CHINA SEA.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 27N 120E 20N 125E 17N 120E 18N 109E 21N 110E 27N
120E.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 55N 175E 55N 180E 33N 180E 34N 175E 55N 175E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 141E 42N 141E
44N 145E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 168E 40N 163E 37N 150E 37N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 06N 112E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 06N 138E NNW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 40N 164E EAST 20 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 36N 142E TO 36N 146E 32N 149E.
COLD FRONT FROM 31N 140E TO 28N 138E 26N 134E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1722 SAOLA (1722) 985 HPA AT 34.8N 141.1E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Japan: Earthquake of mag 7.1 strikes off Japan triggering small tsunami. Fukushima nuclear plant undamaged – 251013 2015z

7.1 Mag Earthquake off the east coast Honshu, Japan

JMA confirms� 7.1 Mag Earthquake Information (Information on seismic intensity at each site)
Issued at 03:13 JST 26 Oct 2013

Occurred at (JST) Latitude
(degree) Longitude
(degree) Depth Magnitude Region Name
02:10 JST 26 Oct 2013 37.2N 144.6E 10 km 7.1 Fukushima-ken Oki

More here: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/

All Tsunami Advisories have been cancelled.

No reports of damage after 7.3 magnitude earthquake hits Japan | Fox News (link)

An earthquake of magnitude 7.3 struck Saturday morning off Japan’s east coast, the U.S. Geological Survey said. Japan’s emergency agencies declared a tsunami warning for the region that includes the crippled Fukushima nuclear site.

 

Other Reports

Japan Hit By 7.3-Magnitude Earthquake Off Fukushima Prefecture Coast, Tsunami Advisory Issued

(Video credit: BreakingNews!!!)

Published on Oct 25, 2013

TOKYO — TOKYO (AP) — An earthquake of magnitude 7.3 struck Saturday morning off Japan’s east coast, near the crippled Fukushima nuclear site, the U.S. Geological Survey said. Japan’s emergency agencies declared a tsunami warning for the area.

The quake hit at 3:10 a.m. Saturday Tokyo time (1310 GMT), the USGS said.

The tremor was felt in Tokyo, some 300 miles (480 kilometers) away.

Japan’s Meteorological Agency raised the tsunami warning for the area of Honshu. But the U.S. Pacific Tsunami Warning Center did not post warnings for the rest of the Pacific.

 

Japan: Typhoon 25W WIPHA 151700Z nr 32.3N 138.4E, moving NE at 30 knots (JMA) – 151013 2115z

Typhoon Wipha

Large and powerful Category 1 Typhoon Wipha bearing down on Japan

Level 1 Tornado risk (see below)

(Scroll down for Japanese translation) （日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン）

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: JMA) TC track (Click image for source)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

(Image: JMA) Current warnings (Click image for source)

TY 1326 (WIPHA)
Issued at 17:45 UTC, 15 October 2013

<Analyses at 15/17 UTC>
Scale	Large
Intensity	Strong
Center position	N32°20′(32.3°)
	E138°25′(138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 55km/h(30kt)
Central pressure	955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more	E330km(180NM)
	W280km(150NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more	E750km(400NM)
	W600km(325NM)
<Estimate for 15/18 UTC>
Scale	Large
Intensity	Strong
Center position	N32°40′(32.7°)
	E138°50′(138.8°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 55km/h(30kt)
Central pressure	955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more	E330km(180NM)
	W280km(150NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more	E750km(400NM)
	W600km(325NM)
<Forecast for 16/03 UTC>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N38°05′(38.1°)
	E143°20′(143.3°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 75km/h(40kt)
Central pressure	960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle	160km(85NM)
Storm warning area	E480km(260NM)
	W430km(230NM)
<Forecast for 16/15 UTC>
Intensity	–
	LOW
Center position of probability circle	N44°55′(44.9°)
	E150°25′(150.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 85km/h(45kt)
Central pressure	968hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle	240km(130NM)
Storm warning area	E700km(375NM)
	W650km(350NM)

Japan Radar

(Image: JMA) Japan Radar – Precipitation (Click image for source)

(Image: JMA) Japan Radar – TORNADO Probability (Click image for source)

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC Warning Graphic (Click image for source)

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (WIPHA) WARNING NR 021���
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 30.5N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 040 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.5N 136.5E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 36.7N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 45 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 43.7N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
—
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 32.1N 137.8E.
TYPHOON 25W (WIPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 24W (NARI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.� //
NNNN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Oct, 2013 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)

 

Typhoon WIPHA (25W) currently located near 32.7 N 138.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Japan
��������probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
��������probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
�Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
��������probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
����Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
��������probability for TS is 100% currently
����Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
��������probability for TS is 100% currently
����Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
��������probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
����Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
��������probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
����Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
��������probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
����Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
��������probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
����Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
��������probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
����Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
��������probability for TS is 80% currently
����Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
��������probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Other Reports

Dangerous Typhoon Wipha Drenching Japan

By Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:45 PM GMT on October 15, 2013

“Large and powerful Category 1 Typhoon Wipha is bearing down on Japan as the storm races northeast at 28 mph.

Wipha is likely to be the strongest typhoon to hit Japan since Typhoon Tokage of October 2004, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Wipha is merging with a cold front and undergoing the transition to an extratropical storm–the same process Hurricane Sandy underwent as it approached landfall in October 2012. While Typhoon Wipha is not as powerful as Sandy, it does have a huge area of winds in excess of 50 knots (57.5 mph), which extend out 130 miles to the left of the center. Since the center of Wipha is expected to graze the southern coast of Japan today, and the storm will only weaken slightly, a 100-mile-wide swath of Japan will see damaging winds of 50 knots, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. About a 30 mile-wide swath of Japan will experience winds of 75 mph (hurricane force.) Tokyo will be right at the edge of the hurricane-force wind swath. With many trees still in leaf, these winds will cause widespread tree damage and downed power lines. The counter-clockwise flow of moist, tropical air around the center of Wipha is meeting up with the cold front currently over Japan. This is generating torrential rains over large portions of the country, as the moist air is forced upwards over the cold front, making the air expand and cool, condensing its copious moisture. Radar precipitation estimates show that rainfall rates of 1 – 2″ per hour were occurring near Tokyo today. Heavy rains of 4 – 8″ capable of causing damaging flooding will be widespread over Japan, including over the Fukushima nuclear site, where rainfall from Typhoon Man-Yi on September 16 complicated clean-up efforts of the reactors damaged by the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

Japan may not be all done with typhoons this month, as both the GFS and European models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 93W) east of the Philippines will develop into a tropical storm late this week, which will then head northwest and threaten Japan by next Wednesday, October 23.

Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Wipha approaching Japan, taken at approximately 04:25 UTC on October 15, 2013. At the time, Wipha was a Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

” – Weather Underground

MARITIME

(Image: JMA) Marine Warnings (Click image for source)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP23 RJTD 151800
WARNING 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1326 WIPHA (1326) 955 HPA
AT 32.7N 138.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 40.2N 145.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
964 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 46.6N 153.1E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
968 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 151800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 996 HPA
AT 54N 153E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER SEA OF JAPAN.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER EAST CHINA SEA.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 60N 170E 60N 180E 46N 180E 50N 170E 60N 170E.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 13.6N 147.2E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 14.4N 142.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 15N 105E WEST 15 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 37N 115E ESE 15 KT.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 39N 170E EAST 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 139E TO 37N 142E 40N 149E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1326 WIPHA (1326) 955 HPA AT 32.7N 138.9E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Japanese (Translated by Google)

日本：30ノット（ JMA ）でNEを移動する台風25W WIPHA 151700Z NR 32.3N 138.4E 、 – 151013 2115z

台風Wipha
大規模かつ強力なカテゴリー1台風Wiphaは日本を下にベアリング

レベル1トルネードリスク（下記参照）

（日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン） （日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン）

（画像： wunderground.com ） 5日間の予報（ソース画像をクリック）

（画像： wunderground.com ）衛星（ソース画像をクリック）

気象庁

すべての熱帯サイクロン
（画像： JMA ） TCトラック（ソース画像をクリック）

現在有効な警告/勧告

（画像： JMA ）現在の警告（ソース画像をクリック）

TY 1326 （ WIPHA ）
午後5時45分UTC 、 2013年10月15日に発行される
17分の15 UTC>で<Analyses
大規模
強い強度
中心位置N32 °20 ‘ （32.3 °）
E138 °25 ‘ （ 138.4 °）
動きNE毎時55キロ（ 30カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧955hPa
中央35メートル/秒付近で最大風速（ 70カラット）
最大突風スピード50メートル/秒（ 100カラット）
50カラット風の面積以上E330km （ 180nm以下）
W280km （ 150nmの）
30カラット風の面積以上E750km （ 400nmの）
W600km （ 325NM ）
18分の15 UTC>ため<Estimate
大規模
強い強度
中心位置N32 °40 ‘ （32.7 °）
E138 °50 ‘ （ 138.8 °）
動きNE毎時55キロ（ 30カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧955hPa
中央35メートル/秒付近で最大風速（ 70カラット）
最大突風スピード50メートル/秒（ 100カラット）
50カラット風の面積以上E330km （ 180nm以下）
W280km （ 150nmの）
30カラット風の面積以上E750km （ 400nmの）
W600km （ 325NM ）
16/03 UTC>ため<Forecast
強い強度
確率サークルN38 ° 05 ‘の中心位置（38.1 °）
E143 °20 ‘ （ 143.3 °）
動きNE毎時75キロ（ 40カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧960hPa
中央35メートル/秒付近で最大風速（ 70カラット）
最大突風スピード50メートル/秒（ 100カラット）
確率160キロの円の半径（ 85NM ）
ストーム警告エリアE480km （ 260nmの）
W430km （ 230NM ）
15分の16 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
LOW
確率サークルN44の中心位置°55 ‘ （ 44.9 °）
E150 °25 ‘ （ 150.4 °）
動きNE毎時85キロ（ 45カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧968hPa
最大持続風速35メートル/秒（ 65カラット）
最大突風スピード50メートル/秒（ 95カラット）
確率240キロの円の半径（ 130nmプロセス）
ストーム警告エリアE700km （約375nm ）
W650km （ 350nmの）
日本レーダー

（画像： JMA ）日本レーダー – 降水量（ソース画像をクリック）

（画像： JMA ）は、日本のレーダー – TORNADO確率（ソース画像をクリック）

合同台風警報センター（ JTWC ）

（画像： JTWC ） TC警告グラフィック（ソースの画像をクリック）

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN真珠湾HI / /
SUBJ /熱帯低気圧の警告/ /
RMKS /
1 。 TYPHOON 25W （ WIPHA ）警告NR 021
NORTHWESTPAC IN 02 ACTIVE熱帯低気圧
MAXはONE- MINUTE平均に基づいてWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
—
警告POSITION ：
151200Z — NEAR 30.5N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 25 KTS AT 040 DEGREES
020 NM以内の正確な位置
POSITIONは、衛星のそば中心を基準に
PRESENT WIND配分：
075 KT 、突風090 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
温帯BECOMING
064 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
034 KTのWINDS OF RADIUS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
30.5N 136.5E ： POSITを繰り返す
—
予測：
AT VALID 12時間：
160000Z — 36.7N 141.6E
065 KT 、突風080 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
温帯
24人事POSITへのベクトル： 035 DEG / 45 KTS
—
AT VALID 24時間：
161200Z — 43.7N 149.1E
055 KT 、突風070 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
温帯
—
備考：
32.1N 137.8E NEAR 151500Z POSITION 。
LOCATED TYPHOON 25W （ WIPHA ） 、約345ナノメートルの南南西
横須賀、日本は過去OVER 25ノットで北東追跡して
六時間。 151200Zで最大有義波高は33フィートです。
152100Z 、 160300Z AND 160900Z AT NEXT警告。 TROPICALを参照してください
SIX – HOURLY更新用のSTORM 24W （ NARI ）警告（ WTPN32 PGTW ） 。 / /
NNNN
TSR logoNW太平洋： 10月15日に発行したストームの警告、 2013夜06時00分GMT （最終警告）

台風WIPHA （ 25W ）は、現在32.7の近くにN 138.9 Eが与えられたリードタイム（ s）で、次の可能性（複数可）に土地を打つと予測されている：

レッドアラート国（s）または州（ S）
日本
CAT 1の確率以上では、12時間以内に70％である
TSのための確率は現在のところ100％

イエローアラート市（s）とタウン（S）
いわき（37.0 N 、 140.8 E ）
TSの確率は、12時間以内に100％
東京（ 35.7 N 、 139.8 E ）
TSのための確率は現在のところ100％
静岡（35.0 N 、 138.5 E ）
TSのための確率は現在のところ100％
宮古（ 39.7 N 、 141.9 E ）
TSの確率は、12時間以内に100％
仙台市（ 38.3 N 、 140.9 E ）
TSの確率は、12時間以内に100％
名古屋（ 35.2 N 、 136.9 E ）
TSの確率は、12時間以内に95％で
釧路（ 43.0 N 、 144.4 E ）
TSのための確率は約24時間で85％
新潟（ 37.8 N 、 139.2 E ）
TSの確率は、12時間以内に80％
塩野 – 美咲（ 33.5 N 、 135.8 E ）
TSのための確率は現在80％である
坂田（39.0 N 、 140.0 E ）
TSの確率は、12時間以内に65％である

注意してください
レッドアラートは、 （重症） CAT 1または％ 31 〜100 ％の確率に上です。
イエローアラート（高架） CAT 1以上〜10 ％と30 ％の確率、又はTSの間に50％以上の確率である。
CAT 1は、少なくとも毎時74マイルの台風の強さの風、毎時119キロまたは64ノット1分間の持続を意味している。
TSは、少なくとも毎時39マイルの熱帯性低気圧の強さの風を意味し、毎時63キロまたは34ノット1分持続。

グラフィカルな予測情報と詳細についてhttp://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/をご覧くださ&#12356;

ストームトラッカー地図
その他のレポート
危ない台風Wipha灌注日本

ジェフマスターズ博士、 2013年10月15日に15:45 GMTによって
“大型で強力なカテゴリー1台風Wipha 28 MPHで北東嵐レースとして日本にダウン軸受である。

Wiphaは、気象庁によると、 2004年10月の台風蜥蜴以来、日本をヒットする最強台風である可能性が高い。

Wiphaは寒冷前線と合併し、温帯嵐への移行を受けている – それは2012年10月上陸に近づいたのと同じプロセスハリケーンサンディは受けた。台風Wiphaはサンディのように強力ではないですが、それは中央の左側に130マイルを引き出さ50ノット（毎時57.5マイル）を超える風の巨大な面積を持っていません。 Wiphaの中心が現在の日本の南岸を放牧し、嵐はわずかに弱体化すると予想されているので、日本の100マイルの広い観測幅は、気象庁によると、 50ノットの有害な風を見ることができます。日本の30マイル幅の帯状については、毎時75マイル（ハリケーン力。 ）東京は、右ハリケーン力の風の観測幅の端になるの風を経験するでしょう。まだ葉に多くの木によると、これらの風が広まっ木の損傷やダウンした電力線が発生します。 Wiphaの中心の周りに湿った、熱帯の空気の反時計回りの流れは、現在全国の寒冷前線にまで満たしている。湿った空気が寒冷前線にわたって上向きに強制されるので、これは空気が膨張し、冷却、その豊富な水分を凝縮すること、国の大部分にわたって集中豪雨が発生している。 2 “時間当たり今日東京の近くで発生した4の豪雨を – – 8″レーダー降水量の見積もりは1の降雨率があることを示す損傷洪水を引き起こすことができるには含めて、全国広範なる福島原子力サイト上に、どこに台風マンから降雨9月イー2011年3月の地震と津波によって損傷原子炉の16複雑なクリーンアップの努力。

GFSと欧州モデルの両方が邪魔天候（ 93Wを投資） 、フィリピンの東の面積が、後半に今週熱帯暴風雨に発展するその後北西を率いるれるとことを予測しているように、日本は、今月の台風で行われたすべてのできない場合がありますnext 10月23日（水曜日） 、日本を脅かす。

図1を参照。台風WiphaのMODIS衛星画像では、 2013年10月15日に約4時25 UTCに取られ、日本を、近づいています。当時、 Wiphaは毎時90マイルの風でカテゴリー1の嵐だった。画像クレジット： NASA 。

” – キャンペーン応募はこちら
MARITIME

（画像： JMA ）マリン警告（ソース画像をクリック）

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP23は151800をRJTD
WARNING 151800 。
VALID 161800警告。
警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。
台風警報。
TYPHOON 1326 WIPHA （ 1326 ） 955 HPA
32.7N日本国138.9E SEA SOUTHは、北東30ノットMOVING 。
良いポジション。
MAXは、中心部に近い70ノットの風。
50 OVER KNOTのWINDSの半径は180 kmイースト半円AND 150マイル
ELSEWHERE 。
30 OVER KNOTのWINDSの半径は500 kmイースト半円AND 325マイル
ELSEWHERE 。
85マイルの半径40.2N 145.4E AT 160600UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
964 HPA 、MAXは65ノットの風。
温帯LOW BECOMING 。
130マイルの半径46.6N 153.1E AT 161800UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
968 HPA 、 MAX WINDS 65ノット。
温帯LOW BECOMING 。

気象庁。 =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 151800
WARNINGと要約151800 。
VALID 161800警告。
警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。
GALE警告。
開発した低996 HPA
オホーツクはEAST 15ノットを移動54N 153Eの海で。
LOWの400マイル以内WINDSは、30〜 45ノット。
GALE警告。
北東の風が30〜45ノット日本海OVER優勢。
GALE警告。
北風は、 30 〜35ノット東シナ海OVER優勢。
GALE警告。
OVER実勢30 〜35 KNOTS北西風TO北風
WATERSは60N 170E 60N 180E 46N 180E 50N 170E 60N 170Eに囲まれ。
GALE警告。
熱帯低気圧1004 HPA
WEST 12ノットMOVING 13.6N 147.2EマリアナAT 。
POSITIONのFAIR 。
MAXは、中心部に近い30ノットの風。
EXPECTED MAXのWINDS NEXT 24時間の中心部に近い35ノット。
120マイルの半径14.4N 142.6E AT 161800UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
概要。
15N 105E WEST 15 KT AT熱帯低気圧千HPA 。
37N 115E ESE 15 KT AT HIGH 1028 HPA 。
39N 170E EAST 15 KT AT HIGH 1032 HPA 。
35N 139E FROM 37N 142E 40N 149Eに対して静止FRONT 。
REMARKS 。
TYPHOON 1326 WIPHA （ 1326 ） 32.7N 138.9E AT 955 HPAは： TROPICAL SEE
CYCLONE警告。

気象庁。 =

Japan: Tropical Cyclone (Severe Tropical Storm) 16W (MAN-YI) 160900Z near 39.0N 142.6E moving NE at 33 knots – 160913 0834z

Tropical Cyclone (Tropical Storm (JTWC)

Severe Tropical Storm (JMA)

) MAN-YI

(Scroll down for Japanese translation)

�i���{���̂��߂ɃX�N���[���_�E���j

STS 1318 (MAN-YI)
Issued at 07:45 UTC, 16 September 2013

<Analyses at 16/07 UTC>
Scale	Large
Intensity	–
Center position	N39��10′(39.2��)
	E141��35′(141.6��)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 70km/h(38kt)
Central pressure	985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more	SE650km(350NM)
	NW460km(250NM)
<Estimate for 16/08 UTC>
Scale	Large
Intensity	–
Center position	N39��40′(39.7��)
	E142��05′(142.1��)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 70km/h(38kt)
Central pressure	985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more	SE650km(350NM)
	NW460km(250NM)
<Forecast for 16/18 UTC>
Intensity	–
	LOW
Center position of probability circle	N44��05′(44.1��)
	E147��55′(147.9��)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 75km/h(40kt)
Central pressure	975hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle	160km(85NM)
Storm warning area	ALL310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 17/06 UTC>
Intensity	–
	LOW
Center position of probability circle	N51��05′(51.1��)
	E154��50′(154.8��)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 80km/h(44kt)
Central pressure	965hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle	240km(130NM)
Storm warning area	ALL410km(220NM)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

(Image: JMA) Currently valid Warnings/Advisories (Click image for source)
�i�摜�FJMA�j���ݗL���Ȍx��/�����́A�i�\�[�X�̉摜���N���b�N�j

(Image: JMA) Japan composite weather radar (Click image for source and animation)
�i�摜�FJMA�j�́A���{�����C�ۃ��[�_�[�i�\�[�X��A�j���[�V�����摜���N���b�N�j
Composite weather radar echoes and precipitation forecasts up to 60 minutes ahead are displayed in 1 km x 1 km resolution every 5 minutes, respectively. Any out-of-operation radars may cause radar echoes in affected areas to be weaker than they should be or not displayed at all.Precipitation Nowcasts provide precipitation intensity forecasts of swiftly growing convections with a spatial resolution of 1 km up to an hour ahead to assist with disaster prevention activities.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

• Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 160900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 015  (FINAL WARNING)
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 37.6N 140.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 045 DEGREES AT 33 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 37.6N 140.9E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 43.2N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 40 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 50.1N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
—
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 39.0N 142.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM
SOUTH OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 33 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
160501Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH DECREASING
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON RJTD RADAR FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS FROM RJTD. TS 16W IS
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW
AND IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TS 16W IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

Other Reports

Man-yi 台風�€18日本 Causes flooding and Wind Damage Across Japan while leaving 1 dead.

Published on September 16, 2013 by robspeta// westernpacificweather.com

”

This is a quick update with some of the latest reports of damage and information across Japan, please leave information at westernpacificweather.com if you have reports or photos.�

One casualty has been reported due to Man-yi, 3 people are still missing and 96 have been injured across Japan. A 71 year old women was the lone casualty thus far due to a landslide crashing in to her home Monday morning.

140kph wind gust have been reported in Japan resulting in trees snapping signs being blown down and light debris being tossed about. �Video from near Nagoya where the storm made landfall show buildings severely damaged due to winds as the storm came crashing ashore around 0800JST.

Damage in Yokosuka Japan

Yet this pales in comparison to the rain effect across Japan. Over 490mm was reported in Nara in 24hrs. �In Kyoto just west of Nara severe flooding inundated several communities causing flood damage to over 10,000 homes according to NHK.

Flooding in Kyoto

In Tokyo river flooding has also submerged low lying areas but not nearly to the extent as farther south. The image below is from Tamagawa showing it about double the rivers size.

Flooding in Tokyo with MT. Fuji in the distance

Video shot in Kanagawa prefecture at Jagoshima south of Tokyo

” – westernpacificweather.com

END

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 16 Sep, 2013 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm MAN-YI (16W) currently located near 37.6 N 140.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
 Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME

Japan

 

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 160600
WARNING 160600.
WARNING VALID 170600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1318 MAN-YI (1318) 985 HPA
AT 38.4N 141.1E NORTHERN JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 35 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 44.1N 147.9E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 51.1N 154.8E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 160600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 160600.
WARNING VALID 170600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 994 HPA
AT 57N 141E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 17.5N 132.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 18.1N 130.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 15.6N 113.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 16.5N 112.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 44N 146E 51N 157E
56N 163E 51N 180E 47N 180E 40N 170E 40N 160E 40N 150E 44N 146E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 35N 180E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 15N 150E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 35N 123E SE 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 37N 165E ESE SLOWLY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 40N 141E TO 42N 144E 43N 150E 43N 155E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1318 MAN-YI (1318) 985 HPA AT 38.4N 141.1E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Japanese (Translated by Google)

�M�уT�C�N�����i�M�ѐ���C���i JTWC �j
�d�x�̔M�ѐ���C���i JMA �j
�j MAN- YI

�i���{���̂��߂ɃX�N���[���_�E���j

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