Gulf of Mexico: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three 20/1200Z nr 25.4N 90.3W, moving NW 08 kt (NHC FL) – Published 20 Jun 2017 1218z (GMT/UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AL03)

(Future TS Cindy)

A Tropical Storm Warning for…Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center FL

000
WTNT33 KNHC 201138
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
700 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

…DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.4N 90.3W
ABOUT 265 MI…430 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 300 MI…485 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* West of Cameron to High Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
25.4 North, longitude 90.3 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through Wednesday, with a turn toward the north expected
Wednesday night or Thursday. On the forecast track, the disturbance
is expected to be near the Louisiana coast late Wednesday or
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the
coast.

Satellite imagery shows that the center of the disturbance is
gradually become better defined, and it is likely that the system
will become a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
NOAA buoy 42001 just reported a pressure of 1000.6 mb (29.54
inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
10 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday
morning. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest
Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday morning.

STORM SURGE: Inundations of 1 to 3 feet are possible along the
coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight
from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 Jun, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm AL03 is currently located near 24.8 N 90.1 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). AL03 is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 35% currently
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
    Houston (29.8 N, 95.4 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201146
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
714 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

The center of Tropical Storm Bret, at 20/1200 UTC, is near 11.1N
63.6W, or about 17 nm to the ENE of La Isla de Margarita of
Venezuela. It is moving WNW westward, 290 degrees, 18 knots. The
maximum wind speeds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 knots. The
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Convective precipitation:
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Caribbean
Sea from 10N to 16N between 60W and 68W. Please read the NHC
Potential Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public
Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC for more details.

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three at 20/1200 UTC,
is near 25.4N 90.3W, about 230 nm to the SSW of the mouth of the
Mississippi River. It is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 8 knots. The
maximum wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. The
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Convective precipitation:
Scattered moderate to strong is in the waters from 26N to 30N
between 83W and 90W, and from 25N south between 83W and 87W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers inland areas
and coastal waters areas from the northern half of Guatemala
into the southern half of the Yucatan Peninsula, including in
the coastal waters of the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Please read the
NHC Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/ Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/35W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
03N to 08N southward between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/45W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, most
probably related to the ITCZ, from 06N to 08N between 40W and
46W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/71W from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
20N to 21N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N southward
between Puerto Rico and 73W.

…MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to
06N33W, and 03N43W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong
from 04N to 12N between 12W and 23W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 01N to 06N between 25W and 31W.

…DISCUSSION…

…THE GULF OF MEXICO…

A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough passes through southern
Louisiana, to a 26N94W cyclonic circulation center, to the Mexico
coast near 25N98W and 20N105W in Mexico. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in much of the
Gulf of Mexico, from 20N northward from 90W westward.

…CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD…

LIFR: none.

IFR: KGRY and KATP.

MVFR: KVQT, KMDJ, and KMIS.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA…

TEXAS: MVFR in McAllen, and in Huntsville. LOUISIANA: occasional
MVFR and areas of light rain from Patterson eastward to Lake
Pontchartain, and southeastward into the SE corner of the state.
MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in Natchez. light rain and LIFR in Pascagoula.
ALABAMA: MVFR and light rain in parts of the Mobile metropolitan
area. drizzle in Gulf Shores. light rain and LIFR in Fort Rucker
and Dothan. FLORIDA: rain, heavy at times, and LIFR conditions,
from Perry westward. LIFR/IFR around the Tampa/St. Petersburg
metropolitan area.

…THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of
the Caribbean Sea, with a 14N68W Caribbean Sea cyclonic
circulation center. Tropical Storm Bret is set to move into the
SE corner of the Caribbean Sea during the next 24 hours.

The Monsoon Trough extends from 09N74W in Colombia, through
Panama, northwestward through Costa Rica, and beyond, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 15N southward from 77W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 20/0000 UTC…according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES…MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC…are 1.06 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.10 in Curacao.

…HISPANIOLA…

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow, from an inverted
trough, is moving across the area. Rainshowers and thunder still
are possible across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS…for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Punta Cana: rain and thunder. VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist
of cyclonic wind flow, with the current N-to-S oriented trough.
Expect southerly wind flow during the first half of day two,
followed by anticyclonic wind flow during the second half of day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that day one will
consist of the rest of the inverted trough moving through the area
completely, during day one. Day one will end with SE wind flow
moving across Hispaniola. Expect SE wind flow during day two, with
an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that day one will consist of SE-to-E wind flow.
Expect cyclonic wind flow with a separate inverted trough, during
day two. Hispaniola will be on the southern side of an E-to-W
oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge.

…THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…

An upper level trough is anchored by a cyclonic circulation
center that is about 770 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico, to a 14N68W
Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation center. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
20N to 21N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N southward
between Puerto Rico and 73W. Rainshowers and thunder still are
possible across Hispaniola.

An upper level trough passes through 32N32W to 21N35W. A cold
front passes through 32N24W to 25N41W and 31N57W. Convective
precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers cover the area that is from 24N northward between 22W
and 60W, and elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward.
Widely scattered moderate is from 29N to 32N between 55W and 58W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 16 Nov 2015 2330z (GMT/UTC)

==UK==

STORM BARNEY

SKYWARN

Severe Weather Alert #54 issued (See below)

Met Office Severe Weather Warnings:

Met Office Weather Warnings for mobile

Highlands & Eilean Siar Yellow Warning

Strathclyde Yellow Warning

London & South East England Yellow Warning

East Midlands Yellow Warning

North West England Yellow Warning

South West England Yellow Warning

Yorkshire & Humber Yellow Warning

Orkney & Shetland Yellow Warning

East of England Yellow Warning

Wales Yellow Warning

West Midlands Yellow Warning

North East England Yellow Warning

(For details follow above links)

 20 Flood Warnings in England and Wales – 6 in Scotland

at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

29 Flood Alerts in England and Wales – 5 in Scotland

at 

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

( Check for interim updates in comments at bottom of page)

Severe Weather Warnings for Europe are now toward the bottom of the page

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Weather Radar Europe (meteox.co.uk)

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Jersey Radar also covers much of South/South West of England & N France

CI weather warnings


SkyWarn UK’s mission is to forecast, report, and record severe weather.

SKYWARN UK CURRENT ALERT (Link)

Severe Weather Alert #54
SWUK has issued a Severe Weather Alert for strong winds in excess of 70mph
Valid from 1300hrs Tuesday 17th November to 0300hrs Wednesday 18th November.
for
South and South Western England & Wales
An easterly moving low pressure system (officially named ‘Barney’ by the MetO) will track across southern UK on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Wind gusts could exceed SWUK criteria of 70mph along exposed coasts on the southern flank of the low.
Wales and the Bristol Channel could see gusts of 80mph
Spotters in the alert area are requested to report any breaches of SWUK criteria in the normal manner.

For details on SkyWarn UK’s alert criteria, click HERE.

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The latest Severe Weather Reports from TORRO can be found by following this link:

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Latest news reports (see bottom of page)

BBC Weather

Monday

151116

Tuesday

151117

Wednesday

151118

UK Warnings

Warnings

Monday 16 November Published at 16:54

UK Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING OF WIND for NORTHWEST SCOTLAND

Issued at 10:35 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid from 11:00 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid until 23:55 on Mon 16 Nov

Southwesterly winds will increase during Monday, when severe gales will affect parts of the northwest mainland of Scotland, the Western Isles and Northern Isles. The strongest winds will initially develop across the Western Isles and northwest coast this afternoon before extending into the Northern Isles during the evening. Winds will quickly ease on Tuesday.

Gusts of wind of 65-75 mph are expected in places, so be aware that there may be some further disruption to travel. Additionally, large waves may cause some overtopping of sea defences.

This an update to the warning issued on Sunday morning.

Further updates will appear here.

YELLOW WARNING OF RAIN for NORTH WALES and NORTH ENGLAND

Issued at 10:23 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid from 10:00 on Tue 17 Nov

Valid until 23:45 on Tue 17 Nov

Further rain is expected on Tuesday as a frontal system runs across the UK from the west. The largest accumulations are expected across the hills of northwest England and northwest Wales though low lying areas will also see a period of heavy rain. On the southern side of this system some very strong winds are expected and a separate warning for winds is likely to be issued.

The public should be aware that, given the already saturated conditions, flooding is possible either from standing water or from rivers already swollen by recent rainfall. This could lead to disruption to travel and perhaps localised flooding to properties.

This is a further update to the warning originally issued on Friday, reducing the northern extent of the warning and moving into minor impacts.

Further updates will appear here.

YELLOW WARNING of WIND for much of WALES and SOUTHERN ENGLAND

Issued at 10:46 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid from 15:00 on Tue 17 Nov

Valid until 23:30 on Tue 17 Nov

West to southwesterly gales and locally severe gales are likely to sweep eastwards across parts of Wales, southern, central and eastern England later on Tuesday. Gusts could reach 60-70 mph inland and possibly 80 mph along exposed coasts, particularly Wales and through the Bristol Channel.

Be aware of the risk of disruption to travel and that gusts of this strength could bring down trees and lead to some damage to weakened structures.

Further updates will appear here.

YELLOW EARLY WARNING OF RAIN for NORTH WALES and NORTH ENGLAND

Issued at 12:17 on Sun 15 Nov

Valid from 16:00 on Wed 18 Nov

Valid until 23:45 on Wed 18 Nov

Another spell of heavy rain, accompanied by gale force winds in places, will cross the country on Wednesday, with largest rainfall over the high ground areas already saturated from recent wet weather. Up to 50 mm is expected in the wettest spots in North Wales and NW England.

The public should be aware of the potential for further impacts such as disruption to travel and local flooding.

Further updates will appear here.

When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings

Northern Ireland: Addition information available from https://www.facebook.com/northernirelandweather?fref=ts

Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.

What is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW)?

Peter Gibbs explains sudden stratospheric warming and why it is often linked to outbreaks of cold weather: Sudden stratospheric warming

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News at bottom of page

FLOOD WARNINGS & ALERTS

There are NO SEVERE FLOOD WARNING currently in force in England & Wales at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

There are NO SEVERE FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in Scotland at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

Flood Warning Flood Warning Flooding is expected. Immediate action required

There are 20 FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in England & Wales at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/flood/31618.aspx

There are 6 FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in Scotland at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

Flood Alert Flood AlertFlooding is possible. Be prepared.

There are 29 FLOOD ALERTS currently in force in England & Wales at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

There are 5 FLOOD ALERTS currently in force in Scotland at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

About the Environment Agency Flood Warnings

The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and sent to the BBC Weather Centre, we then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.

Find out more about Flood Warnings

There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. Both the Environment Agency (for England and Wales) and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.

Floodline 0845 988 1188

Coastal Forecast

A 24 hour weather forecast for 24 UK coastal areas

Tide Tables

Tidal information supplied by the UK Hydrographic Office

Inshore Waters

There are strong wind warnings in 19 areas.

There is a gale warning in 1 area.

The next few days will be dominated by severeal areas of low pressure tracking across the British Isles bringing strong winds, large waves and changeable weather to all parts.

Shipping Forecast

There are gale warnings in 29 areas.

The general synopsis at midday

Low Bailey 964 expected Norwegian Basin 973 by midday tomorrow. New low expected Shannon 983 by same time.

Extended Outlook

The Extended Outlook aims to signpost expected hazards for the Cullercoats, Niton and Portpatrick areas for the three days beyond the 24 hour shipping forecast.

High Seas

There are storm warnings in 8 areas.

The general synopsis at 16 November 20:00 UTC

At 161200UTC low 60 north 13 west 964 expected 63 north 02 east 973 by 171200UTC. Low 48 north 39 west 987 expected 53 north 12 west 983 by same time. Low 50 north 20 west 998 losing its identity by that time. New low moving slowly east expected 53 north 32 west 988 by 171200UTC

Europe: Very dangerous weather – ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: LEVEL 3! for parts of POLAND and W BELARUS Damaging wind gusts, large and very hail, excessive precipitation and SIGNIFICANT TORNADO EVENT. – Published 190715 1216z

Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 19 Jul 2015 06:00 to Mon 20 Jul 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 19 Jul 2015 00:01
Forecaster: TASZAREK

A level 3 was issued for parts of Poland and W Belarus mainly for the damaging wind gusts, large and very hail, excessive precipitation and significant tornado event.

A level 2 was issued for parts of Germany, Poland, Belarus, NW Ukraine and N Czech Republic mainly for the severe wind gusts, large hail, tornadoes and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for parts of S Finland and parts of Russia mainly for the large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for parts of UK, Netherlands, S Denmark, Germany, Switzerland, N Italy, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, W Hungary, Belarus and NW Ukraine mainly for the large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for NE Spain mainly for the large hail and excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

Most of the Central, SW, S and SE Europe is covered with highly unstable warm and moist tropical air mass with dew points up to 20C. A ridge extending from Azores up to Iberian Peninsula inhibits convection in this region. Strong capping inversions are also present in the Apennine and most of the Balkan Peninsula. Weakening high is places over Black Sea while the numerous troughs are located over British Isles, Scandinavia and N Russia. Jet streak separating polar and tropical air mass is stretching from the N Atlantic trough England, N Germany and Poland up to Russia. Within this jet, a short-wave with thermal low is predicted to provide a good overlap of instability, moisture, lift and wind shear over parts of Germany, Poland and Belarus.

DISCUSSION

…Germany, Poland, Belarus, NW Ukraine…

Particularly severe weather is expected in the afternoon hours within the shortwave that will pass these countries in the forecast period and provide the great source of lifting mechanism. An overlap of SB CAPE exceeding 1000-2000 J/kg and DLS over 20-25 m/s in the large area extending from central Germany up to Poland is expected to produce widespread severe weather. Around noon, convection should start over Germany and most likely in the form of the supercell thunderstorms produce damaging wind gusts and large to very large hail. An increased 0-1km SRH over 100 m2/s2 and LLS exceeding 10 m/s cannot rule out tornado occurrence within these cells. In the afternoon hours CI should also take place in W Poland. Since these cells will form in the highly unstable (1500-2000 J/kg) and strongly sheared environment (DLS ~ 25 m/s, MLS ~ 20 m/s, LLS ~ 15 m/s, 0-3km SRH up to 300 m2/s2) with the support of the QG lift, an organized squall line is likely to form. It is likely that such a squall line will contain bow echos and the wind gusts within these may exceed 33 m/s. The transformation into derecho cannot be ruled out. Level 3 denote the area where according to the current understanding and NWP data the movement of this line is the most probable. However, models are not consistent with the direction of the MCS movement, some of them predicts propagation of the squall line to the Belarus, while some of them shifts the system more to the warm air mass. It is possible that an early-hours convection that will pass through N Poland may provide conditions more conducive for MCS turning more to the S. Due to these uncertainties, both scenarios are partially included in the level 3 area. Although the main threat are damaging wind gusts, conditions in the late afternoon hours (when the relative humidity will drop and thus the LCL) will be conducive for tornadoes, especially in the E Poland. An impressive overlap of 0-1km SRH ~ 400 m2/s2 with LLS ~ 12.5 m/s and CAPE ~ 1000 J/kg may result in a significant tornado event if isolated or embedded supercells will be present. These may be possible in the southern flank of the squall line. Within these storms very large hail is also possible. It is predicted that the MCS will enter Belarus and parts of Ukraine in the late evening hours and weaken, but still will be capable of producing severe wind gusts. If derecho will form, the system may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts also in the late evening hours, therefore level 3 is also extended to the parts of Belarus further east. Extreme values of PW (40-45 mm) may also result in a large precipitation amounts on the track of the MCS.

…parts of UK, Denmark, Netherlands, N Germany, Baltic Sea…

Although models predicts very large DLS over these areas (25-30 m/s) they are not as consistent with thermodynamic instability. Thunderstorms that will form within the short-wave may become supercells and create threat for the large hail and severe wind gusts. However, due to limited thermodynamic instability, limited boundary layers moisture content and rather low-topped convection, such a threat deserves only level 1.

…Germany, Switzerland, N Italy, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, W Hungary, Belarus and NW Ukraine…

Locally enhanced DLS up to 15 m/s with CAPE up to 2000-2500 J/kg and rich boundary layer’s moisture (mixing ratio up to 12-13 g/kg) create threat for multicell and supercell thunderstorms where severe wind gusts and large hail are likely. DMC is forecast to start around noon and the storms should weaken in the late evening hours. In the areas where the storm motion is predicted to be very low (DLS below 10 m/s) excessive precipitation and local flash flooding cannot be ruled out, especially in the NW parts of the Italy.

…S Finland, parts of Russia…

Favorable overlap of DLS around 20 m/s and CAPE up to 400-600 J/kg create threat for supercell thunderstorms and thus severe wind gusts and large hail. Uncertainty related to CI, low thermodynamic instability, limited boundary layer’s moisture content and narrow zone where the CAPE overlaps with the favorable shear makes the threat marginal. The highest threat for the occurrence of severe weather falls on the early afternoon hours.

…NE Spain…

Low-level inflow of impressive rich boundary layer’s moisture content (mixing ratios up to 16-18 g/kg) overlapping with steep lapse rates (~ 7 C/km) locally will enhance CAPE values to 2000-2500 J/kg. If thunderstorms will be able to get through the cap, they may be capable of producing large hail. Since the storm motion in this area is predicted to be very low, given the high moisture content excessive precipitation cannot be ruled out.

END

See also >>>>  http://www.meteoalarm.eu/

Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sun 19 Jul 2015 11:00 to Sun 19 Jul 2015 14:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 19 Jul 2015 11:51
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

At 11 UTC a warm front was located along a line from near Leipzig to Poznan to Warsaw. An MCS / area of convective rain over NE Germany has created an outflow boundary that stretches from Berlin to Leipzig.

Along the warm front distinct surface convergence is taking place and low-level humidity is rather high with 18-21 C observed dew points. With 26-30 C surface temperatures, around 1000 – 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should already be in place.

The Bayreuth, Lindenberg and Doksany profilers and Poznan radar confirm that 20-25 m/s WSW winds are in place at 3-4 km AGL, implying that strong to very strong wind shear is present.

Storms, probably elevated have formed in the Leipzig area and further south across the Czech Republic. It is expected that these storms will move eastward and become surface based. It is possible that storms will rather rapidly develop into a squall-line and that the wind risk will increase rather quickly.

In addition, more storms may form further to the east along the warm front after 13 UTC. Any isolated storms that manage to form will quickly turn into powerful supercells with a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts.

The high (about 300 m2/s2) SREH and anticipated strengthening low-level shear that is in place along and slightly to the north of the warm front suggests that tornadoes cannot be ruled out. However, in most places, the LCL height is rather high for tornadoes with T/Td spreads around 10 C, limiting this risk. An exception is a small area along the warm front where prior rainfall occurrs before the arrival of storms, cooling and moistening the boundary layer.

END

US: Fairdale, Chicago (IL) tornado kills at least 1, 11 others injured – Published 100415 2010z (GMT/UTC)

At least one person was killed in a northwest suburb of Chicago after a devastating tornado touched down Thursday evening with damage reported in several counties.

The small town of Fairdale, located in DeKalb County, was leveled by the tornado with fire officials confirming at least one person was killed. “The whole town was gone,” said Daniel Prothero, who arrived at the scene shortly after the storm. “It was one of the worst things I’ve ever seen in my life. It was heartbreaking.” Rockford Fire Department division chief Matthew Knott said seven people in various stages of injuries were transported to local hospitals, but he expected that number would change throughout the night as crews continued to search the area. “This town is absolutely devastated by the tornado,” Knott said, noting roughly every structure in the town was damaged by the system. Crews were still working to determine the extent of the damage and were searching for survivors as of 10:30 p.m. Thursday.

Friday, 10 April, 2015 at 04:39 (04:39 AM) UTC RSOE

Update

One resident of a tornado-damaged town in northern Illinois says he ignored an early warning on his cellphone about the impending twister. Sixty-year-old machinist Al Zammuto of Fairdale tells The Associated Press he has received similar warnings before but they have never amounted to anything. Moments after the message arrived, his windows exploded and he took cover. He says he couldn’t believe his eyes when he stepped outside. He says the town looked “like a landfill” and that people were in total shock. Authorities in the tiny community roughly 80 miles northwest of Chicago say one woman died and about 11 others were injured when at least one tornado touched down Thursday evening.

Friday, 10 April, 2015 at 16:57 UTC RSOE

US (Okelahoma): Multiple tornadoes across OK leave at least 1 person dead in Sand Springs & at least 20 injured – Published 270315 1505z (GMT/UTC)

Multiple tornadoes hop-scotched across the state Wednesday leaving at least one person dead in Sand Springs and at least 20 people treated at metro hospitals, four with serious injuries.

Damage in Sand Springs from the tornado (Credit NWS)

Damage in Sand Springs from the tornado (Credit NWS)

  •   The National Weather Service has rated the Sand Springs tornado as an E-F 2. That means it had winds of up to 135 MPH.
  • Classes resume today in Sand Springs and Tulsa schools.
  • The Governor toured the damage area. FEMA expected today.
  • PSO reports only 200  customers are  still without power.

A Norman man also died in a single-vehicle accident during the storm, but police could not confirm whether the wreck was weather-related.

Moore schools are closed Thursday as district officials survey damages. Western Heights schools are also closed. According to the school’s website: “Due to storm damage around our north side schools, we are canceling school Thursday, March 26.”

The National Weather Service in Norman confirmed a tornado touched down about 6:35 p.m. in Moore at SW 4 and crossed Interstate 35 near the Warren Theatres, the area where the May 20, 2013, tornado left 25 people dead. The weather service described the tornado as “weak” and lasting briefly. Baseball-size hail and heavy thunderstorms bombarded the metro area for several hours.

In the Norman fatal accident, a pickup driver died near the 2900 block of E Robinson. The pickup was traveling east on Robinson when it left the road and struck a utility pole. The identity of the driver was withheld Wednesday night, pending notification of family.

Across the state, two tornadoes west of Sands Springs resulted in the death of at least one man in the River Oaks Mobile Home Park. Moore Public Schools announced on its Facebook page that classes were canceled Thursday because of damage across the district. The extent of the damage was not known late Wednesday, according to a district spokesman, but officials expect roof damage, blown-out windows and power outages. An update about the state of the buildings is expected Thursday. Southgate Elementary received extensive damage to its roof.

At least 20 people were treated at local hospitals for everything from bumps and bruises to lacerations suffered in the storm, said Lara O’Leary, EMSA spokeswoman. A University of Oklahoma Medical Center spokeswoman said the hospital received eight patients – four suffered serious injuries and were admitted to the trauma center.

Debris lined streets and hung from trees in south Moore shortly after the storm passed through. Metal carports lay crumpled in the road and wrapped around fences and sheds, and the jagged stumps of trees snapped in half by the strong winds pointed at the dark sky. Sirens filled the evening air as neighbors stood on their front porches, surveying the damage which included one house with a torn-off roof and several others with damage.

At the Furr’s Fresh Buffet, a cafeteria along Interstate 35 in Moore, about 20 customers huddled together in the walk-in coolers as a tornado came close. “It blew a roof out less than a mile away from us,” said manager R.J. Garza. “We just felt the vibration. Once the sirens went on, we sprung into action.” Integris Canadian Valley Hospital in Yukon received the largest amount of wind damage of the Integris hospitals, said Brooke Cayot, Integris Health Systems spokeswoman. The building lost power and was operating on a generator Wednesday night.

Between 500 and 600 people took shelter at Integris Baptist Medical Center, and more than 600 took shelter at Integris Southwest Medical Center. Moore police Sgt. Jeremy Lewis said significant damage was reported from Santa Fe over to Janeway and from SW 4 up to NW 6. Numerous homes in that area lost roofs or had significant structure damage, he said.

A few blocks to the south, one of the three KOMA towers on SW 4 still stood. Just to the east, the steeple of the Moore Church of the Nazarene lay in its front yard. National Weather Service could not confirm how many tornadoes touched down but there were media reports of tornadoes landing in Oklahoma City, Yukon and Norman.

More than 36,000 people lost power in the Oklahoma City metro area due to the weather, according to Oklahoma Gas and Electric. Customers at Taco Bueno, 1109 N Santa Fe in Moore, hid in the walk-in freezer, the same freezer other customers took cover in during the May 20, 2013, tornado. “Afterwards, we started making food by candlelight,” said Olga Ramierez, the district manager.

Friday, 27 March, 2015 at 04:38 (04:38 AM) UTC RSOE

Related:

Grateful Oklahomans salvage belongings after killer storm .

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

More about tornadoes:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado

Sand Springs Tornado Red Cross Relief Drive

Tornado_slider-4

http://media.cmgdigital.com/shared/news/documents/2015/03/27/News_Release_-__Red_Cross_Tornado_Relief_Fundraiser.pdf

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 20 Aug 2014 1930z (GMT/UTC)

Updated here:

https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/10/26/uk-severe-weather-and-flood-warnings-updated-26-oct-2014-0751z-gmtutc/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Europe: Severe weather inc tornadoes forecast for E France and S Germany (Estofex) – Published 250814 2215z (GMT/UTC)

European forecaster Estofex issues level 2 Storm Forecast for E France and S Germany…..

Storm Forecast

Forecast provided by ESTOFEX

Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 26 Aug 2014 06:00 to Wed 27 Aug 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 25 Aug 2014 21:17
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

A level 2 was issued for E France and S Germany mainly for tornadoes and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for NE/E France, Belgium, Luxembourg, S-central Germany and W Czech mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for S UK for a chance of tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for parts of the North Sea and Baltic Sea for spout-type tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

… SE UK, NE / E France, SW / central Germany …

A dissipating low pressure system over the British Isles which continues eastwards advects warm and unstable air into W / central Europe. A few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE are forecast consistently in the warm sector by the past runs of GFS and ECMWF, at least partly overlapping with 15 – 25 m/s of 0-6 km bulk shear. T/Td is forecast around 20/16 °C for SW Germany which leads to low LCL heights. Convection should fire up in the late morning / early afternoon hours even though there is some subsidence over the central parts of Germany from the upper ridge. Combined with enhanced LL shear and SRH1, this may allow a few tornadoes. Further north, LL shear is weaker but the background wind field should be intense enough to support isolated severe wind gusts mainly from downward transfer of momentum. Local heavy precipitation is possible but fast storm motion should preclude a risk of flooding in most cases.

Over UK, there is very weak LL shear forecast in the afternoon hours but a weak background flow should support some spout-type tornadoes.

… N Germany, Denmark, N Poland, S Scandinavia and Baltic Sea region…

Sufficient buoyancy and weak background winds enhance the chance for long-lasting convergent flow in the vicinity of convective storms and may lead to funnels which could end up in spout-type tornadoes. The greatest chance for landspouts / waterspouts exists around Denmark and N Poland. Further north, deep layer shear is also quite weak but the stronger background flow will likely disturb the formation of funnels / tornadoes.

Some regions with locally enhanced LL shear exist over Finland but overall instability is likely too low to support a tornado threat covered by a LVL1.

… NW Italy and Mediterranean Sea…

A plume of unstable air is advected from the Balearic Islands towards Italy. It will likely remain strongly capped but in case of convective initiation, isolated storms may profit from 20 – 25 m/s of 0-6 km bulk shear and could develop mesocyclones. Overall threat is likely too marginal for a threat level as the capping inversion is likely too strong for storm development.

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Signpost to UK SEVERE WEATHER, FLOOD WARNINGS and TORRO TORNADO WATCH – Updated 09 Aug 2014 2325z (GMT/UTC)

EX-Hurricane Bertha

TORRO TORNADO WATCH for much of southern, central, and eastern England, and parts of N England, Wales

and the Channel Islands.

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning; hail

Valid from 03:00 until 17:00GMT on Sunday 10th August 2014

A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 22:45GMT on Saturday 9th August 2014

Valid from/until: 03:00- 17:00GMT on Sunday 10th August 2014 for the following regions

Parts of (see map)

Much of southern, central, and eastern England, and parts of N England

Wales

Channel Islands

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning; hail

DISCUSSION

Deepening Atlantic storm with tropical airmass within its warm sector will cross the watch area during Sunday. Although the exact track is still somewhat uncertain, there are indications from several models that a dual-centred system will evolve. The first centre should move into Wales later tonight, with the main centre crossing SW England and heading NE to Lincs by afternoon, whilst the first centre tends to fill or is consumed by the second.

Strong lifting from a sharpening upper trough should steepen lapse rates enough for embedded convection to develop close to and to the south of both centres of low pressure, with wind shear favourable for severe weather, especially to the south and east of the second, deeper, low pressure area.

A mass of heavy rain is already moving in, and through the latter part of the night, embedded convection may affect parts of Wales and SW England, as the low pressure centre(s) move in. During Sunday morning, as the sharpening upper trough digs into the moist sector, it is possible that a squall line may develop across southern England/E Anglia. Additionally, ahead of the low pressure area moving from SW England to Lincs, convection may develop in the moist sector.

In each of these areas, low-level and deep layer wind shear appears sufficient for severe thunderstorms with strong winds and perhaps a tornado or two. The main caveat with this watch is that the maritime nature of the airmass would typically suggest fairly meagre lapse rates – however, global and mesoscale models indication fairly decent instability associated with this system (~1000J/Kg CAPE). If instability and shear can combine favourably, a strong tornado is possible.

The area from SW England to Lincs, and points south-east of there appear to have a higher risk of severe weather than elsewhere in the watch area. Please note this forecast has been issued early due to the fact the situation will not be monitored by TORRO overnight.

Forecaster: RPK

Torro Tornado Watch 2014/008 (Image: TORRO)

also UK SEVERE WEATHER & FLOOD WARNINGS

http://wp.me/p2k2mU-2Ne

 

France: Tornado kills 2 campers in Ardèche and Gard. 16 injured across Rhone-Alpes – Published 210714 1920z (UTC)

Two campers died when a tornado ripped through neighbouring campsites in Ardèche and Gard yesterday, on a weekend that saw much of France battered by storms.

A 50-year-old camper was killed when the tornado touched down at a campsite in Saint-Just d’Ardèche, causing trees to fall on dozens of tents. And a 46-year-old woman was fatally injured when the same tornado felled a tree at a site in Saint-Paulet-de-Caisson.

A total 40 campers were evacuated as the twister damaged a number of trees. The twin tragedies in Ardèche and Gard were caused as storms that swept across France passed through Cévennes and Nimes before returning to the Rhône Gard.

Elsewhere, hailstones the size of golf balls left 10 people injured and forced organisers to call a halt to a planned concert by Vanessa Paradis at the Grand Souk festival in Riberac, Dordogne, on Saturday.

Meanwhile, 1,000 jazz fans had to be evacuated from a festival concert in Saint-Emilion. Planned events on Sunday were also cancelled as volunteers cleared up after the storm.

Six scouts from Oise were taken to hospital in Gironde, on Saturday, after suffering lightning burns while on a camping trip in Saint-Simon de Pellouaille. Across Aquitaine, 8,500 households were left without power as storms swept through the region on Saturday night.

Monday, 21 July, 2014 at 10:05 (10:05 AM) UTC RSOE

Other Reports

The Local

Storms leave two dead on French camp-sites

Published: 20 Jul 2014 21:21 GMT+02:00
Updated: 20 Jul 2014 21:21 GMT+02:00

Storms leave two dead on French campsites

A tornado ripped through a campsite in south-central France leaving one man dead. Photo: Screengrab France 2 TV

The tornado hit a campsite in the town of Saint-Just-d’Ardeche, pulling down trees and destroying caravans and tents on Sunday afternoon.

A 42-year-old Frenchman died when a tree fell on him as the tornado hit. Five others were left injured although their conditions are not believed to be life-threatening.

Captain François Degrange, from the local police told AFP that trees had been brought down over a three to four kilometer radius.

“I have never seen that in my career before,” he said.

In a separate incident a woman was also killed by a falling tree at a campsite at Saint-Paulet-de-Caisson in the neighbouring Gard department.

According to Midi-Libre newspaper a baby was also injured as the storms hit and had to be rushed to hospital.

Hundreds of campers in the region have had to be evacuated.

The storms, which brought the mini-heatwave to an abrupt end, were accompanied by gale force winds and hailstones the size of tennis balls in some regions.

Nine departments in eastern France remained on alert for storms on Sunday evening, while other areas of north eastern France were on alert for heavy rain and floods.

Europe: Euro-forecaster Estofex issues Level 2 Storm Forecast for N Italy – Published 290614 1700z

Storm Forecast

Forecast provided by ESTOFEX (Click image to go to source)

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 29 Jun 2014 06:00 to Mon 30 Jun 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 29 Jun 2014 04:22
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 2 was issued for N Italy mainly for severe convective wind gusts, large hail and excessive convective precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for parts of central Europe mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

The cold front associated with a large amplitude mid level trough from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean Sea is pushing eastward through Italy and central Europe today. Surface level lows reside over southern Scandinavia and northern Italy. Cold airmass thunderstorms are likely over France, Benelux and western Germany. The prefrontal airmass over Italy is moderately unstable due to the presence of the Saharan Air Layer with steep mid level lapse rates and 10-12 g/kg moist boundary layer air. Strong winds in mid levels create a favorable kinematic environment for storms.

DISCUSSION

…Italy, southern Austria and western Balkan…

Some regional WRF models predict over 2500 J/kg SBCAPE over the Lgurian Sea. MLCAPE should be 1000-2000 J/kg. This will be capped south of the Po valley. Either way, given the 20 m/s deep layer shear and strong moisture lifting over the south slopes of the Alps triggering of supercells and MCSes is highly probable, with chances of widespread large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. During the evening as the cold front comes through, the model scenario (GFS, WRF) is that some discrete supercells or a linear system will also affect the area south of the Po valley. The area of Austria to Croatia will likely see the strongest moisture lift and largest storms, and can become affected by excessive convective rainfall, at least locally. The PV/dynamic tropopause intrusion acquires a negative tilt at night which might help to keep the storms active for long in the region near Slovenia, although WRF models keep the storms moving. Tornadoes are not ruled out with pre-Alpine 0-1 km shear of 8 m/s and locally higher.

…Hungary, N and E Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania…

Relatively modest MLCAPE should exist in a broad area from Hungary/Austria to the Baltics. The presence of 10-15 m/s deep layer shear could develop persistent and rotating updrafts which can locally release large hail. The frontal convergence zone in the Austrian-Hungarian-Czechian borders region should be the main focus for convective development, another is NE Poland and Lithuania near the occlusion.

…southern Sweden and Norway…

Some instability is present within the low. Low cloud bases and slow cell motion combined with good low-level buoyancy and convergence zones are found mainly over southern Sweden. Such conditions are favorable for spout type tornadoes and funnels.

ESTOFEX FAQ

France: Euro-forecaster Estofex issues Mesoscale Discussion – potential for tornadoes – Published 280614 1638z

Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sat 28 Jun 2014 14:00 to Sat 28 Jun 2014 21:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 28 Jun 2014 14:39
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

…France to Southwestern Germany…

A surface low pressure center lies currently (14Z) at the west coast of France (Bordeaux). A large Atlantic upper trough moves into the region and will provide destabilization of the mid and upper levels, which is needed as 12Z soundings still show inversions at 900 and 450 hPa. A stationary frontal zone is well-defined by thermal gradients and a sharp wind shift (NE/S) running from some 100km north of Bordeaux to Stuttgart approximately.

Observed surface mixing ratios in France vary at 13Z between 10.5 and 13 g/kg with potential temperatures ranging between 26 and 32ーC, the higher values over the Massif Central.
Inserting these values into Bordeaux and Nimes 12Z soundings, the cap can be bypassed in some locations and some 1000 J/kg SBCAPE could be obtained, but MLCAPE will be lower and mixed parcels may have some trouble with the cap.

In fact, satellite shows initiation over northern Massif Central oriented SW-NE and along the front in the west (WSW-ENE). The storms will grow in a strong kinematic environment with large but relatively straight hodographs. Observed Bordeaux 600 hPa wind is 60 kts with 40 kts at 900 hPa. This directly translates into a primary threat of severe convective wind gusts, especially as cold pools join into an MCS. Deep layer shear values of 15-20 m/s and SREH of 150 mイ/sイ initially and over 250 mイ/sイ predicted by GFS at 18Z (SW France) support supercells. 0-1 km shear ranges from 10 m/s in the afternoon to over 15 m/s during the evening (GFS). Together with relatively low LCL (descending to <1000 m in the evening) this underlines potential for tornadoes, and supports bow echoes. Large hail will be possible as well, but the upper level inversion represents a mixed phase region without much buoyancy which could be a limiting factor.

After 18Z the mid level cold front comes in from the west and will likely trigger storms in SW France moving upscale to a somewhat parallel-stratiform MCS over the southeastern quarter of France (this will happen beyond the validity time of this MD).

Europe: ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: Level 2 for S Italy and Albania/Macedonia. Valid until Weds 180614 0600Z – Published 170614 1540z

Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 17 Jun 2014 06:00 to Wed 18 Jun 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 16 Jun 2014 23:01
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 2 was issued for southern Italy and Albania/Macedonia mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for northern Tunisia, central and southern Italy, Adriatic and northern Ionian Sea, northern Greece and southern Balkans into Bulgaria, Romania and Moldova mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for eastern Iberia and the Gulf of Valencia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

Atlantic high continues without a weakening tendency. Arctic air masses will spread into Scandinavia and western Russia at the eastern flank of this high. Polar air masses that have spread into most of Europe will warm in response to diurnal heating, and slightly decreasing moisture and lapse rates can be observed to the south-west of a new cold front that enters the Ukraine, Poland, and eastern Germany in the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms can develop especially below the axis of the long-wave trough from Germany across the Alps, southern France, into eastern Iberia.

Ahead of the long-wave trough, a west-south-westerly flow will establish from northern Tunisia to the Aegean and Black Sea region. An elevated mixed layer will spread into the east Mediterranean, affecting the Ionian and Aegean Sea. Weak frontogenesis to the south of Italy will additionally allow for moisture increase in the boundary-layer, but the capping inversion is forecast to remain quite strong.

DISCUSSION

Southern Italy and Adriatic, southern Balkans, Bulgaria and surroundings

Within the south-westerly jet, a jet streak ejects from the base of the long-wave trough and spreads across the east Mediterranean into Greece. Several vorticity maxima will travel into the forecast area on Tuesday.

The affected air mass is characterized by a rather cool boundary layer air mass with moisture pooling over some regions. Best moisture will evolve over southern Italy ahead of an approaching cold front as well as along a frontal boundary from Serbia to Bulgaria, where low-level convergence exists. Diurnal heating and increasing lapse rates will likely allow for CAPE during the day.

A few rounds of storms are expected to spread east on Tuesday, with widespread storms over central Italy and from the central Balkans to the Black Sea. With 20 m/s deep layer vertical wind shear, especially the southern regions will see well-organized storms, and supercells and bow echoes are forecast. Main threat will be large hail and severe wind gusts with these storms, although excessive rain and a tornado are not ruled out.

Further south, storm initiation is not that probable given the large inversion atop of the boundary-layer. Diurnal heating may support storms over southern Italy and parts of Greece, and some isolated supercells are forecast, capable of producing large hail. These storms may weaken after sunset.

Eastern Iberia

Along the sea-breeze convergence, easterly onshore-winds will allow for upslope flow and moisture advection over eastern Iberia. Steep lapse rates spreading east from the Iberian mountains will overlap with this moisture and CAPE is forecast. Initiation is most likely over the mountains and storms may move east later on. A capping inversion near the sea will likely limit the storm potential. However, near the sea-breeze convergence, 15 m/s deep layer vertical wind shear can support mesocyclones. Large hail will be possible with these storms as well as severe wind gusts, especially when storms will interact with deep boundary layers from the south-west. Convection is forecast to decay after sunset.

West Mediterranean

Near the base of the trough, rather rich low-level moisture and rather steep lapse rates will create some CAPE. Storms are forecast due to some low-level convergence and weal CIN. Given weak vertical wind shear, degree of organization will be weak over most places. Locally large hail and excessive precipitation are not ruled out with the slow moving storms. When clusters can develop, isolated wind reports are not ruled out as well.

The best potential for better storm organization exists south of the Balearic Islands. Stronger deep layer vertical wind shear is expected to support supercells or bow echoes, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. The overall threat is rather weak, though, given the weak instability, low-level vertical wind shear, and lift.

Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Tue 17 Jun 2014 14:00 to Tue 17 Jun 2014 17:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 17 Jun 2014 14:39
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

Convective initiation is currently concentrating along a seabreeze / upslope flow convergence over Central Italy. Coastal areas see dewpoints between 19 and 22C, which yields CAPE values between 1000 and 1500 J/kg according to the 12 UTC Brindisi and (modified) Pratica di Mare soundings.

In the Northern half of the area, deep-layer shear decreases and the background flow starts turning to the Northeast, pushing the convergence zone towards the West coast. Satellite imagery confirms some backbuilding multicells, which pose a risk of heavy rain and large hail.
Further South, storms are stationary or even moving Eastward, and deep-layer shear around 20 m/s beneath the mid-level jetstreak enables good organisation into multi- and supercells. Very low cloud bases and strong low-level shear in the sea breeze regime along the italian East coast hint at a remarkably enhanced tornado risk (refer to the recent Bari metars with 24/22C and Northeasterly surface winds around 7 m/s). Otherwise, large hail and severe wind gusts are possible, as well as flash flood producing rain in case of backbuilding.

Storms continue to travel eastward or form anew along a flow-parallel extension of this convergence line across the Southern Adriatic Sea into Northern Albania and Southern Montenegro. This pattern has already continued for 18 hours and has produced extreme flash floods in parts of Albania. This risk will still continue in the next hours. If stronger updrafts move onshore, all other kinds of severe weather are possible as well.

END

 

US: PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO Watch 303. WEST-CENTRAL IOWA , NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE NEBRASKA

Pilger, Nebraska, Takes Heavy Hit from Reported Tornado

Particularly Dangerous Situation TORNADO Watch 303. Valid until: 06/17/2014 0300Z http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0303.html

SEL3

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL IOWA
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

…THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION…

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
AINSWORTH NEBRASKA TO 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF TEKAMAH
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 302…

DISCUSSION…THE 19Z OMA SOUNDING SAMPLED A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT
WITH 4000 J/KG MLCAPE…60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR…AND 500
EFFECTIVE SRH. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG HEATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH A RISK FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING TORNADOES…A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT.

AVIATION…TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025.
…MEAD

SSE THE MAP HERE: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0303.html

Pilger, Nebraska, Takes Heavy Hit from Reported Tornado

(Video credit: earthspace101)

US: Airman dies saving daughter’s life during Arkansas tornado – Published 020514 2255z

Airman dies tornado 050114

Master Sgt. Dan “Bud” Wassom II (Photo: US Air Force)

“Master Sgt. Dan “Bud” Wassom II’s last action in this life was using his body to shield his 5-year-old daughter Lorelai as a tornado demolished his house Sunday, said his mother, Pamela Wassom.

At the hospital, Lorelai told anyone who would listen that her father had saved her life, Pamela Wassom said.

“Lorelai kept telling the emergency room people, she said, ‘My daddy saved me; the house exploded and my daddy saved me; he’s a hero,’ ” said the girl’s grandmother. “And he is. He’s a true hero.”

His wife Suzanne is a heroine, said her sister, Teresa Cole. Suzanne Wassom shielded their 7-year-old daughter, Sydney, when the tornado tore through Vilonia, Ark., north of Little Rock. Afterward, she moved both daughters to safety and helped a little boy who lived across the street.

STORY: Truck carried 27 miles by tornado in Arkansas
STORY: Deadly tornadoes lash South

The master sergeant served in the Arkansas Air National Guard’s 189th Airlift Wing for 12 years as a loadmaster. He had a college degree and could have trained to be a pilot, but he liked being a loadmaster too much, his mother told Air Force Times in an interview Thursday.

“We’re a military family,” she said. “His father is retired Air Force. His grandfather was in the Navy. He joined right after 9/11. That boy loved his country. He was patriotic. He even volunteered to go to Kuwait a couple years ago, and he said if it hadn’t been for the wife and kids, he would even have stayed longer.”

Wassom and his father shared a passion for old cars, she said. They rebuilt a 1934 Ford that was in his garage when the tornado destroyed their home.

“It actually survived,” she said. “He and his dad worked on that car. They both loved cars. His favorite cars were Mustangs. But he and his dad would always talk cars. Just a couple of weeks ago, they went on a little mini-trip together to a car show in Oklahoma City. I’m so grateful that they had that memory now of that time they spent. They had a blast.”

Growing up, he was always happy to show his mother how much he loved her, even when doing so made other boys feel socially awkward.

“When you’re talking about teenage boys, they don’t want to be seen kissing their moms or anything like that, but if I had to drop him off someplace, like school — even in high school, when he couldn’t use the car — he didn’t care who was around, he would lean over and kiss me and always hug me,” she said.

That’s the type of kindness that Wassom showed everyone, his mother said.

“I can honestly tell you I don’t know anybody who disliked that boy because he was such a good person,” Pamela Wassom said.

Above everything else, she said, her son was a dedicated father and husband who adored his two daughters and shared every responsibility for raising them with his wife.

“Even before he died, he was a hero,” she said. “He served his country; loved his family, loved God; and he died doing what he did best: being a good father.”” – Jeff Schogol, Air Force Times 6:14 p.m. EDT May 1, 2014

US: Arkansas and Oklahoma tornadoes: Death toll rises to 17 as forecasters warn more are on the way – Published 280414 1400z

“Forecasters warn further twisters are on the way after a violent start to the US tornado season left at least 17 people dead

U.S. Severe Weather Alerts and Tornado Warnings (link)

At least 17 people have been killed and many more injured in the United States after a powerful storm system saw tornadoes rip through Arkansas and Oklahoma.

A dozen or more twisters tore through central and southern parts of the country, decimating buildings, overturning trucks and bringing down trees and power lines.

National Guard troops have been mobilised in the worst hit areas and rescue workers have been searching debris for victims, as forecasters warned more twisters were on their way.

Storm Locations
A tornado in Arkansas killed 16 people on its 30-mile destructive path

Tornadoes also hit in Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri and Louisiana, causing damage and injuries.

President Barack Obama, who is currently in the Philippines, sent his condolences to those affected and pledged any assistance necessary.

“Your country will be there to help you recover and rebuild, as long as it takes,” he said.

The Arkansas Department of Emergency Management said a large tornado which formed outside Little Rock killed 16 people as it carved a 30-mile path of destruction through the state.

It was the largest of several tornadoes created by a powerful storm system.

Another twister which hit the town of Quapaw, Oklahoma, left one person dead and at least six people injured.

Arkansas tornado
A tornado obliterated homes in Mayflower, Arkansas

It then continued into Kansas, destroying up to 70 homes and injuring 25 people in the city of Baxter Springs.

In Mayflower, Arkansas, one person was killed and 45 homes were destroyed as a tornado swept through.

City alderman Will Elder said: “It’s extremely hazardous here right now. The power lines are down, roads are blocked and they (emergency services) will have to proceed with caution.”

James Firestone, mayor of the Arkansas town of Vilonia said: “It’s chaos right now.”

He said the downtown area “seems like it’s completely levelled”, adding: “There are a few buildings partially standing, gas lines are spewing and fire lines are down. We’ve had some casualties.”

Firefighters from nearby cities, as well as National Guard troops, were heading to the town to help, with the county sheriff’s office reporting a “mass casualty situation”.

Homes in Arkansas have been destroyed by a tornado
The deadly twisters have devastated neighbourhoods

Representative Tim Griffin said: “Tonight, I walked around what was only hours earlier a thriving neighbourhood that is now gone.

“An entire neighbourhood of 50 or so homes has been destroyed.

“Many homes are completely gone except the foundation and there is more devastation like this in other parts of Arkansas.”

Writing on Twitter, Arkansas governor Mike Beebe added: “It’s been a truly awful night for many families, neighbourhoods and communities, but Arkansans always step up to help each other recover.”” – Sky News

A number of tornado warnings were issued. Forecasters are only able to give about 13 minutes warning, although more general tornado watches are issued earlier.
See also:

https://www.facebook.com/GoatysNews

U.S. Severe Weather Alerts and Tornado Warnings(link)

 

Videos

Arkansas and Oklahoma tornadoes: Death toll rises to 17

(Video credit: ITN)

Published on Apr 28, 2014
At least 17 people have died after tornadoes ripped through the southern and central United States. The majority of the victims were in several suburbs of Little Rock in Arkansas. Homes and buildings were destroyed and entire were neighbourhoods were reduced to rubble. A desperate rescue operation is now underway to reach survivors, and local residents have to try and rebuild their lives. Report by Sarah Kerr.

At least 17 killed by deadly tornadoes in U.S.

(Video credit: ARIRANG NEWS)

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Europe: ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: Level 2 for western Italy and east Adriatic coast mainly for excessive convective precipitation and tornadoes. Valid until Mon 111113 0600Z – Published 111113 1900z

(Scorrere verso il basso per la traduzione in italiano)(Scroll down for Italian translation)

European forecaster ESTOFEX has issued the following….

Storm Forecast

 

 

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 10 Nov 2013 06:00 to Mon 11 Nov 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 10 Nov 2013 01:21
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

 

A level 2 was issued for western Italy and the east Adriatic coast mainly for excessive convective precipitation and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for Italy and west Balkan coast mainly for excessive convective precipitation, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

A highly meridional flow pattern has developed over Europe. Cold air is transported with northerly winds over Western Europe into the Mediterranean while the eastern Atlantic is dominated by a vast warm sector of a low near Iceland. Over Italy a Genua Low develops rapidly as result of strong advection of potential vorticity over the Alps. It should deepen from 1008 hPa initially to 996 hPa by 03Z, by which time it shifted to central Italy.

DISCUSSION

…western Italy…

After 15Z, according to the GFS run of 18Z, a deep PV anomaly intrudes the Ligurian Sea. Various models indicate there is not a great amount of CAPE (<500 J/kg), but the strong forcing along the leading edge of the anomaly and cold front is thought to trigger a line of thunderstorms with a motion vector around 25 m/s. The primary risk would be severe wind gusts. There should be around 15 m/s deep layer shear which may generate some rotating updrafts. Over central Italy (land) friction of the strong flow creates more than 15 m/s low level shear but storm-relative winds do not look healthy for tornadic supercells. Waterspouts (tornadoes generated by spin-up of vertical vorticity) should occur in various places across the thunder/level 1 area, though. While storm motion seems fast, a threat of excessive convective rain is present as moist flow running into higher terrain should trigger new cells continuously, with backbuilding. As the PV anomaly slows down to install itself over the Tyrrhenean Sea during early Monday morning, southwestern Italy should see more stalled storms with excessive rain amounts. Because CAPE is a limiting factor, the level 2 might be somewhat optimistic.

…east Adriatic coast…

Particularly the high resolution WRF models develop persistent storms in the afternoon onwards, from Slovenia to Albania. Some should surf the flow over orography and the edge of the PV anomaly should linger parallel to the coast, helping regenerate instability and cyclogenesis over the northern Adriatic, increasing excessive rainfall chances. It appears that SREH is better due to more curvature in the low level hodograph which should aid supercells. Waterspouts are very likely, some may be of mesocyclonic origin.

…western Greece…

A plume of higher CAPE over 1000 J/kg advects over the Ionean Sea into Greece and a weak cold front after 18Z should allow triggering of storms, perhaps supercells given the better model hodographs. As buoyancy is stronger here with altitude, large hail seems more likely.

Italian (Translated by Google)

Europea meteorologo ESTOFEX ha rilasciato la seguente ….
Previsione tempesta

 


Previsione tempesta
Validi: dom 10 novembre 2013 06:00 alle Lun 11 Nov 2013 06:00 UTC
Rilasciato : Sun 10 Nov 2013 01:21
Sulle previsioni : VAN DER VELDE

A livello 2 è stato rilasciato per l’Italia occidentale e la costa orientale adriatica soprattutto per eccessiva precipitazione e trombe d’aria convettivo .

Un livello 1 è stato emesso per l’Italia e la costa occidentale dei Balcani principalmente per eccessiva precipitazione convettiva , gravi raffiche di vento e trombe d’aria .

SINOSSI

Un modello di flusso altamente meridionale si è sviluppato in Europa . L’aria fredda viene trasportata con venti settentrionali in Europa occidentale nel Mediterraneo , mentre l’Atlantico orientale è dominata da un vasto settore caldo di una bassa vicino Islanda . Nel corso Italia a Genova Low sviluppa rapidamente come risultato della forte avvezione di vorticità potenziale sulle Alpi . Dovrebbe approfondire dal 1008 hPa inizialmente a 996 hPa da 03Z , momento in cui si è spostata al centro Italia .

DISCUSSIONE

occidentale … Italia …

Dopo 15Z , secondo il run GFS 18Z di una profonda anomalia PV intromette sul Mar Ligure. Vari modelli indicano che non vi è una grande quantità di CAPE ( < 500 J / kg) , ma il forte forzando lungo il bordo di entrata della anomalia e fronte freddo è pensato per innescare una linea di temporali con un vettore di movimento di circa 25 m / s . Il rischio principale sarebbe grave raffiche di vento . Ci dovrebbe essere intorno ai 15 m / s strato profondo taglio che può generare alcuni correnti ascensionali rotanti. Il centro Italia ( terra ), l’attrito del flusso forte crea più di 15 m / s di taglio basso livello ma tempesta relativi venti di non guardare sano per supercelle tornadic . Trombe marine ( trombe d’aria generate da spin- up di vorticità verticale) devono avvenire in diversi luoghi in tutto il tuono / livello 1 zona , però. Mentre movimento temporale sembra veloce , una minaccia di eccessiva pioggia convettiva è presente come flusso umido in esecuzione in un terreno più elevato dovrebbe innescare nuove cellule in continuo , con backbuilding . Come l’ anomalia PV rallenta di installarsi sul Mar Tirreno durante Lunedi mattina presto , sud-ovest Italia dovrebbe vedere le tempeste più bloccata con eccessive quantità di pioggia . Perch CAPE è un fattore limitante , il livello 2 potrebbe essere un po ‘ ottimista.

est … costa adriatica …

In particolare i modelli ad alta risoluzione WRF sviluppano tempeste persistenti nei pomeriggio in poi , dalla Slovenia all’Albania . Alcuni dovrebbero navigare flusso sopra orografia e il bordo della anomalia fotovoltaico dovrebbe soffermarsi parallelo alla costa , aiutando rigenerare instabilità e ciclogenesi sull’Adriatico settentrionale , l’aumento delle precipitazioni eccessive possibilità . Sembra che SREH è migliore grazie alla maggiore curvatura nella odografo basso livello che dovrebbe aiutare supercelle . Trombe marine sono molto probabilmente , alcuni possono essere di origine mesocyclonic .

occidentale … Grecia …

Un pennacchio di maggiore CAPE oltre 1000 J / kg advects sul Mar Ionio in Grecia e di un fronte freddo debole dopo 18Z dovrebbe consentire l’attivazione di tempeste , forse supercelle in virtù delle migliori hodographs modello . Come galleggiabilità è più forte qui con l’altitudine , grandine di grandi dimensioni sembra più probabile .

US: Frightening Halloween storms cause damage in Mid-South – Suspected Tornado in Caraway, AR; Flooding in Central TX – 011113 0830z

This is a photo of the storm taken near #Caraway, AR that likely produced a tornado. via Firsthand Weather (Photo @ArkansasChasers).

 

(WMC-TV) – “Emergency responders are cleaning up after severe, Halloween night storms moved through some Mid-South counties.

A tornado warning was issued for southeastern Craighead County, central Mississippi County, and northeastern Poinsett county around 8:00 p.m. It has since expired.

At least 10 structures are damaged and five more are destroyed after the severe weather tore through Arkansas. The Craighead County Sheriff’s Office reports trees, power lines and poles are down.

Most of the damage is in Caraway, AR where crews went going door to door to make sure everyone was accounted for, according to KAIT8. Several homes are damaged along with a community center, and gas station.

Five trick-or-treators were missing at one point, but they have since been found. Caraway officials enacted a curfew after the search ended. They say anyone who does not abide by it will be arrested.

Riverside Schools are closed Friday. There are no reports of injuries.

A tornado watch was issued for multiple Mid-South counties in TN including Tipton, Dyer, and Gibson. The watch has since expired. ”

Posted: Nov 01, 2013 12:42 AM GST Updated: Nov 01, 2013 3:51 AM GST
By WMCTV.com Staff

Copyright 2013 WMC-TV. All rights reserved.

fox16.com:

Updated: 10/31 10:07 pm Published: 10/31 8:32 pm
CRAIGHEAD COUNTY, AR — The mayor of Caraway in Craighead County reports some buildings downtown were damaged by a storm just at 7:39 p.m.

Power lines down and some trees have been damaged.

The Craighead County Sheriff’s Office says several trick-or-treaters were missing for about 45 minutes but have now been accounted for.

The National Weather Service and county officials have arrived on the scene and are assessing the damage in Caraway

10/31/13 Caraway, Arkansas Tornado Damage *Nick Hellums*

(Video credit: Live Storms Network)

Published on Oct 31, 2013

Live Storms Media affiliate, Nick Hellums, was able to head across the Mississippi river into Arkansas and shoot some video of structural damage in Caraway, Arkansas shortly after a tornado struck the area this evening. Some trick or treaters were presumed to have been missing, but were found taking shelter during the storm. So far, only minor injuries have been reported. Nick is in place helping the Red Cross with any relief efforts overnight and will return at first light to show us more of the destruction.

Onion Creek and Central Texas

Flooding damage in Onion Creek and south Austin after strong overnight storms Oct. 31, 2013. (Via kens5.com – Photo credit: Chopper5)

In Onion Creek and across Central Texas emergency teams saved hundreds of people in a matter of hours.Those challenging night-time rescues were made even more difficult by raging water. “I was scared,” said Olivia Williamson, a resident of Pflugerville. “It’s scary when you look out there and see it going so fast.” Williamson was inside her Crooked Creek home asleep when the storm surged. “To tell you the truth I was still in bed. I kept hearing water and I couldn’t figure out what was going on and our neighbor came and knocked on the door,” she said. Unable to wade through waist deep water hope floated in. “It’s been fast and furious,” said Pflugerville Fire Chief Ron Moellenberg of the calls for help. Its been one right after the other. Those rescues played out hundreds of times in the dark of night and again during daylight. From those too small to help themselves to family members unable to walk out on their own, each rescue a reminder of how fortunate we are for all those helping hands. .Friday, 01 November, 2013 at 05:08 (05:08 AM) UTC RSOE

myfoxaustin.com:

Sheer devastation in the Onion Creek area of southeast Austin. Forget about cleaning up. These people have nothing to salvage. And now we know one person has lost their life because of the flooding.

As the rushing flood water came through the Onion Creek area of southeast Austin neighbors did what they could to survive. They got on their roofs. That’s where they stayed as they waited for emergency crews in helicopters and rescue boats to save them.

Neighbors cheered as each person was carried to safety. Once the flood victims were out of danger– the raw emotion sunk in. Their homes, cars, every last possession ruined.

As the water receded they got a better look at the damage. Albert Castro took us through his home. The water rose so fast, he barely made it out with his life.

“We swam back this way and it’s a good thing my dad had that ladder there and we made our way up,” said Castro.

But before he and his father got settled, they saved seven people next door. That included Jesus Arriaga his two week old baby, wife and two girls.

“I felt worried because I wanted to get them to safety. You just don’t think about it until it’s going to happen,” Arriaga said.

They climbed out their bedroom window. For four hours the families stayed on the roof before help came.

“Just kept them in my arms, making them feel safe, telling them we’re going to be okay,” Arriaga said.

Debris stretches for blocks. Vehicles were battered and carried far away from where their owners left them.

Late in the day even more tragedy. Julie Robin Jackson found what appeared to be a flood victim.

“I nudged the body and it was heavy. I checked to see if he was breathing and he wasn’t. So and then said a prayer for him,” Jackson said.

Emergency officials checked for other bodies, marking each home and vehicle with an x if clear. What lives still remain have been forever altered.

“We don’t got nothin. I’d rather something than nothing. It’s a big change but we gotta do what we gotta do to make things work,” said Castro.

Onion Creek reopen to foot traffic; 15 homes deemed ‘unsafe’

“9 p.m. update: Austin Energy is reporting that all but 100 customers have power restored in the Onion Creek neighborhoods following the latest bout of severe weather that knocked out power to thousands.

Those customers without power are in the Onion Creek Forest neighborhoods, according to the Austin Travis County Emergency Operations Center, and it is unclear when power would be restored.

Power has also been restored to all Pedernales Electric Cooperative customers who had weather-related outages, said utility spokeswoman Anne Harvey. The utility had nearly 3,000 members without power by around noon. Most were centered near Manchaca, Kyle and Buda, the Johnson City-based nonprofit electric utility said.

The story has been updated to correct that Onion Creek Forest neighborhood still does not have power.

7 p.m. update: Onion Creek neighborhoods that were evacuated Thursday morning from floods have been reopened to residents, according to officials.

Foot traffic has been allowed back into the Onion Creek Forest neighborhoods, but cars are still prohibited until about midnight Friday as Austin Energy works to restore power, police said. Onion Creek subdivision and Onion Creek Planatation have reopened foot and vehicle traffic, but drivers can expect some roads to be closed because of flooding or debris, police said.

Police said they will monitor the areas for suspicious activity and looting and have asked Halloween celebrators to avoid those homes.

Officials have barred residents from returning to 15 homes in the Onion Creek Forest neighborhood because of “unsafe conditions,” officials said. They said that the homes have structural damage, like shifted or collapsed walls, that would be hazardous to those residents.

The city is still tallying how many structures have been flooded and the total cost of the damage.

Two shelters will be opened for evacuees including Parker Lane United Methodist Church at 2105 Parker Lane and Dove Springs Recreation Center at 5801 Ainez Dr.

2 p.m. update: More than 100 people have been rescued from flood waters across Central Texas on Thursday morning after storms dropped more than 12 inches of rain in some areas.

The heaviest rainfall began at 9 p.m. Wednesday and continued to pound the region overnight. Some of the highest totals of 9 inches or more were reported near southern Travis County and Hays County.

In downtown Austin, rainfall totals reached 4 to 5 inches, the National Weather Service reported.

The heaviest storms have moved beyond Central Texas, and some light rain is possible throughout the day, said Steve Smart, meteorologist for the National Weather Service.

“Light showers are still possible,” Smart said. “But the heaviest rains have moved east.”

A flood warning remains in effect for the Colorado River in Travis, Bastrop and Fayette counties.

Some of the heaviest flooding in Austin has been in the Bluff Springs area near Onion Creek, which reached a record high of 41 feet this morning and continues to rise, officials said.

“What we have now is the runoff,” the official, Wendy Morgan, said of the rising water levels.

Austin Fire Chief Rhoda Mae Kerr crews responded to 105 calls for flood-related evacuations or rescues between midnight and 10:30 a.m.

An estimated 500 to 600 homes have been flooded by the Thursday storms, officials said.

In Austin, two boats were rescuing people from flooded homes and roads, while StarFlight plucked people from roof tops. By noon, one boat was being used.

Rescues continue, though not as many as during the height of the storms.

“We saw very significant flooding,” City Manager Marc Ott said at a press conference about noon. He had just returned from a helicopter tour with police Chief Art Acevedo and Kerr. “In some cases people cut holes through rooftops to have access to the outside. While there are no confirmed fatalities, we have many areas that need to be searched.”

The Austin Travis County/Emergency Operations Center was partially activated early this morning. It is now on full activation and officials are focused on monitoring water levels, road conditions and evacuations.

The Texas Parks and Wildlife Department Law Enforcement Division also activated its statewide search and water-rescue team to assist emergency crews. The agency has been working to rescue stranded residents in Travis, Hays, Comal and Bastrop counties.

Wimberley in Hays County posted the highest rainfall total at 12 to 14 inches, National Weather Service forecaster Steve Smart said.

In Travis County, 3 inches to 9 inches or more were reported since storms began.

Round Rock saw 9 inches and Bastrop County has seen 4 inches, officials said.

However, much of the Hill Country received less than a quarter inch, doing little to ease lake levels.

The flooding closed roads throughout the area, knocked out power and forced school closures and cancellations.

To check Austin Energy power outages, click here.

To check road closures in Austin, click here.

Click here for road closures in Hays County.

For road closures in Williamson County, click here.

Road closures in Bastrop County can be found here.

For school conditions, click here.

In Williamson County, officials notified 88 homes of evacuations in three areas of Hutto and Round Rock using a variety of methods, including a notice online. Sheriff’s deputies also knocked on doors on County Road 123 in Hutto telling people to evacuate. Officials also knocked on doors on County Road 135.

Water rescues were conducted along Brushy Creek, including on Ranch Road 620, Shady Lane and Lake Creek Parkway, but none were life-threatening incidents, sheriff’s officials said.

A shelter had been set up at Hutto Middle School, but only one family arrived there, a city official said.

In Wimberley, the community center helped 20 people who evacuated from nearby Mill Race Lane. Those residents left the center by 8 a.m. to return to their homes.

One hundred people took shelter at the San Marcos Activity Center, officials said. That shelter had closed by 11:30 a.m. A shelter at San Cruz Catholic Church at 1100 Main St. remains open for Buda-area residents, officials said.

In Austin, three shelters had been opened: The South Austin Recreation Center, Parker Lane United Methodist Church, and the South Austin Recreation.

By noon, only one shelter, Parker Lane United Methodist Church at 2105 Parker Lane, is open.

The Austin fire chief has ordered Barton Creek and Lady Bird Lake closed through noon Friday.

12:20 p.m. update: In the midst of the rescues, the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department Law Enforcement Division activated its statewide search and water-rescue team to assist emergency crews. The agency has been working to rescue stranded residents in Travis, Hays, Comal and Bastrop counties.

Among the rescues, game wardens assisted in water rescues in the Onion Creek area and homes near Circuit of the Americas near Texas 130.

Austin officials said STARFlight has rescued 29 people since flooding started and that rescues continue.

In Williamson County, officials notified 88 homes in three areas of Hutto and Round Rock using a variety of methods, including a notice online. Sheriff’s deputies also knocked on doors on County Road 123 in Hutto telling people to evacuate. Officials also knocked on doors on County Road 135.

Water rescues were conducted along Brushy Creek, including on Ranch Road 620, Shady Lane and Lake Creek Parkway, but none were life-threatening incidents, sheriff’s officials said.

Pedernales Electric Cooperative said nearly 3,000 members were without power by around noon. Most were centered near Manchaca, Kyle and Buda, the Johnson City-based nonprofit electric utility said.

Update 12:05 p.m.: Several Central Texas shelters are starting to close as displaced residents find new housing options and local waters continue to recede in some areas.

In Austin, the South Austin Recreation Center at 1100 Cumberland Road was closed shortly before noon, leaving the Parker Lane United Methodist Church as the remaining shelter for displaced city residents.

The San Marcos shelter was also closed in Hays County, while the Buda area shelter at San Cruz Catholic Church at 1100 Main St. remains open, officials said.

11:45 a.m. update: An additional 2,000 customers will be without power after crews discovered an Austin Energy substation was flooded, officials said. The substation was taken offline as a result, but crews hope to restore power as soon as possible.

Meanwhile, Bluebonnet Electric Cooperative was reporting 1,280 power outages.

To check on Austin Energy power outages, click here.

Update 11:25 a.m.: The Austin fire chief has ordered Barton Creek and Lady Bird Lake closed through noon Friday.

Update 11:15 a.m.: Austin fire crews are continuing water rescues in the Pleasant Valley area in Southeast Austin, officials said.

Since fire crews responded to the scene of flooding waters in the area at 5 a.m., about 100 people have been rescued by boat or ground crew, said Austin fire official Carrie Stewart.

Another 100 rescues are possible, Stewart added.

There were no immediate reports of any injuries, but crews continue to check for homes and vehicles affected by flooding, she said.

Austin Energy says it now has 5,500 customers without power scattered across their service territory. Flooding continues to trigger delays for repairs in some areas, officials said.

10:55 a.m. update: Although Onion Creek continues to rise, Austin fire crews are starting to wind down operations in the Bluff Springs area.

An estimated 60 people were rescued with the aid of two boats this morning, officials said.

Now, one boat will be left on scene in case it is needed for deployment.

All residents and homes reported to Austin fire officials have been accounted for, but some residents were allowed to remain in their homes, officials said.

“Some did choose to stay in their homes as the water is receding,” said Austin fire official Carrie Stewart.

Onion Creek reached a record high of 41 feet this morning and is continuing to rise, officials said.

“What we have now is the runoff,” the official, Wendy Morgan, said of the rising water levels.

Mandatory evacuations have been ordered for Onion Creek Forest and Plantations subdivisions as well as homes along nearby Pinehurst Drive areas. Emergency crews are also conducting rescues of residents from their roofs and attics in the hardest hit areas of nearby Bluff Springs areas.

As many as 625 homes could be evacuated during rescue efforts, Morgan said, as water levels for homes near the Onion Creek flooding rose to about 8 feet or more.

The city has opened three shelters for area residents or people are encouraged to stay with family and friends.

Earlier: Multiple people have been rescued from flooded creeks across Central Texas on Thursday morning after storms dropped more than 13 inches of rain in some areas overnight.

Since midnight, emergency crews have responded to 81 flood-related incidents within Travis County. That includes 32 water rescues and other rescue alerts, one structure fire caused by lightning and 46 flood assistance and barricade calls, Austin fire officials said.

City of Austin officials say an estimated 500 to 600 homes have been flooded by the Thursday storms.

The heaviest rainfall began at 9 p.m. Wednesday and continued to pound the region overnight. Some of the highest totals of 9 inches or more were reported near southern Travis County and Hays County.

In downtown Austin, rainfall totals reached 4 to 5 inches, the National Weather Service reported.

Some of the heaviest flooding in Austin has been in the Bluff Springs area near Onion Creek.

Fire crews have rescued more than 60 residents who were forced to seek safety on roofs and in their attics, said Austin fire official Carrie Stewart. Two boats are in the water rescuing residents, and a StarFlight helicopter is hovering overhead looking for stranded residents, she said.

Rescues and reports of people on rooftops are still being reported in the area.

Three shelters have been opened for Austin residents displaced by floods, city officials said. The South Austin Recreation Center at 1100 Cumberland Road and Parker Lane United Methodist Church at 2105 Parker Lane near West Oltorf Street and Interstate 35 have been designated as shelters, officials said. The South Austin Recreation Center at 1100 Cumberland Road was opened about 10:15 a.m.

Austin Energy was reporting 8,500 outages by 9 a.m., including 6,500 customers without power in flooded areas, an official said.

To check Austin Energy power outages, click here.

To check road closures in Austin, click here.

Click here for road closures in Hays County.

For road closures in Williamson County, click here.

Road closures in Bastrop County can be found here.

A flash flood watch is in effect more much of Central Texas until noon today.

The City of Austin has issued a watercraft ban on Barton Creek and Lady Bird Lake because of unsafe water conditions, an official said.

Officials have partially activated the Austin-Travis County Emergency Operations Center, where city emergency representatives plan to coordinate response to the heavy rains, flooding and area rescues, a spokeswoman said.

The heaviest storms have moved east, and some light rain is possible throughout the day, said Steve Smart, meteorologist for the National Weather Service.

“Light showers are still possible,” Smart said. “But the heaviest rains have moved east.”

So far, Wimberley in Hays County has posted the highest rainfall total at 12 to 14 inches, Smart said.

In Travis County, anywhere from 3 inches to 9 inches or more were reported since storms began last night.

Round Rock saw 9 inches and Bastrop County has seen 4 inches, officials said.” – statesman.com

Europe: ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: Level 2 for NW France, S Germany, Czechia, N Switzerland and N Austria mainly for severe convective wind gusts and tornadoes. Valid until 281013 06:00 UTC – 271013 1000z

Storm Forecast

 

 

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 27 Oct 2013 06:00 to Mon 28 Oct 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 27 Oct 2013 05:14
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 2 was issued for northeastern France, southern Germany, Czechia, northern Switzerland and northern Austria mainly for severe convective wind gusts and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for parts of France, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Czech Republic, Poland, as well as Ireland, mainly for severe convective wind gusts and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for western France and southern UK for severe convective gust and tornado chances after midnight.

SYNOPSIS

A large depression centered west of Scotland has transported a broad plume of relatively warm low level air deep into Europe. A sharp shortwave trough dramatically visible in IPV fields is racing from western France to eastern Poland during the period. Together with a northwesterly jet axis left exit region, it forces rising air with steepening lapse rates between central France and the Netherlands in the morning, which shifts into Germany during the afternoon and Czechia/Poland in the evening. Thedynamic tropopause(PV)/jet axis intersection region moves just north of the Alps. There is a strong wind field with a corridor over southern Germany with >30 m/s winds in the lowest kilometers.
Late in the night, a side disturbance of the main low arrives in the English Channel region with signs of rapid cyclogenesis en-route to Denmark, producing gale conditions on Monday.

DISCUSSION

…Ireland…

In the first 6 hours of the period, convection and conditions of strong low-level winds and shear 15-20 m/s are present. The jetstream passes over the southern half of Ireland. Expect some convective gusts greater than 25 m/s. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well.

…western France, southern UK…

This region will be affected by two disturbances in 24 hours. At 06Z, unstable air under the influence of the shortwave trough is present as well as 25 m/s mean winds in the low levels, and some 20 m/s 0-1 km shear. Mesoscale convective development is not yet expected to begin, but these conditions combined with low LCL heights can lead to tornadoes, aside from severe wind gusts.
After 00/03Z, the cold front of the second low comes in. It seems to become somewhat convectively active, likely as a forced convective line (there is little CAPE and EL at only -15), this time with 30-40 m/s mean winds in the low levels over NW France capable of producing damaging gusts at the ground. The front bends back over the southern UK with less strong wind field but enhanced shear and instability sufficient for a tornado or two. The 00Z GFS run predicts the low to take a much more northerly and faster course with more stable conditions than the 18Z run.

…northeastern France to southwestern Poland…

Synoptic and mesoscale lifting appears to increase in tyhe GFS model over northern France and enhance CAPE to about 200 J/kg. A linear PV intrusion is likely to shape the convection as a line, although WRF models suggest more cellular/short line segment modes instead. Indeed even in the GFS model there is a large region of deep convergence but no sharp line at the surface. The jet exit region affects most directly the zone immediately north of the Alps. In entire southern Germany more than 20 m/s of 0-1 km shear should exist, which aids tornadogenesis (with >250 m²/s² of 0-3 km SREH also predicted) and bow echoes with strong to very strong gusts during convective storms. The 00Z GFS run predicts the same timing as the 18Z run but with the PV intrusion displaced slightly to the north, as well as more positive rather than negative tilt.

UK: Reports of tornado in Cragg Vale, West Yorkshire (Sat AM) – 271013 0010z (GMT/UTC)

People in Cragg Vale have been likening yesterdays severe weather to a ‘mini tornado’.

Felled trees in Cragg Vale as a tornado hit the valley.

(Photo: halifaxcourier) Felled trees in Cragg Vale as a tornado hit the valley.

(G: NB – There is no such thing as a mini tornado, it is either a tornado or not a tornado)

Roads are reportedly still shut this morning (Saturday) following the freak weather – which saw strong winds and floods hit locations across Calderdale.

Cyclists are currently being warned to approach the popular Cragg Vale route with care – after trees fell down and the road was filled with debris.

A clean up of the area is reportedly underway. It’s believed Cragg Vale is closed just above the 5km mark due to a clearing of trees which came down last night (Friday).

The goings on have sparked a web frenzy, with readers venting on twitter and facebook over the weather.

Saturday, 26 October, 2013 at 14:03 (02:03 PM) UTC RSOE

On Twitter: Western MA Wx ‏(@WMassWx): Another tornado strikes the U.K. on the eastern side of a powerful low in the Northern Atlantic. 964mb to be exact

(Image: Western MA Wx ‏(@WMassWx))

 

Europe: ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: Level 1 for Portugal, W Spain, Bay of Biscay, & SW British Isles mainly for tornadoes and excessive rain valid until to 251013 0600Z.- 241013 1425Z

Storm Forecast

 

 

Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 24 Oct 2013 06:00 to Fri 25 Oct 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 23 Oct 2013 22:44
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for Portugal, western Spain, Bay of Biscay, and south-western British Isles mainly for tornadoes and excessive rain.

SYNOPSIS

South-westerly flow continues across Europe given rather weak geopotential across the Atlantic Ocean. An embedded short-wave trough will move from southern Scandinavia to the Baltic States, affecting Germany and even the Adriatic Sea with its trough axis. Cold air will spread into central Europe in the wake of this trough. From the west, a weak ridge will follow that affects especially France during the daytime. A new Atlantic trough will enter western Europe until the end of the period.

Ahead of the central European short-wave trough, a tongue of moist and locally unstable air spreads into eastern Europe. Low-level moisture will also increase across western Europe. Steep lapse rates are expected from the Mediterranean to the central Balkans. The central European trough will provide DCVA across the Mediterranean and northern/eastern Europe, whereas warm air advection will increase across Iberia and France late in the period.

DISCUSSION

Portugal and western Spain, Bay of Biscay, south-western British Isles

Ahead of the new approaching trough, another tongue of warm subtropical air spreads into western Europe. Low-level moisture will reach more than 10 g/kg. Whereas rather weak lift is expected near the ridge axis from eastern Spain to southern France, a couple of vort-maxima will travel north-east from Portugal across the Bay of Biscay into south-western Ireland and England. Late in the period, a strong 30 m/s mid-level jet streak will spread across the Bay of Biscay.

Given this strong DCVA and WAA over the region, large ageostrophic flow and low-level convergence is expected. Excessive rain seems to be quite likely from Portugal into the British Isles. In the wake of the leading warm front, lapse rates will increase due to lift along the cyclonically-sheared flank of the jet, and CAPE is forecast.

Current thinking is that thunderstorms will first affect Portugal and will spread north-east, reaching south-west England at the end of the period. Storms will be capable of producing excessive rain. Tornadoes will be an additional threat due to the strong low-level vertical wind shear and low LCL heights. A strong tornado is not ruled out. Tornado potential is expected to spread into the central British Isles on Friday (after the forecast period).

North Mediterranean to southern Austria and Slovakia

The central European trough will pass by leaving a cold front that becomes quasi-stationary at the flank of the south-east European ridge. To the south of the front, a warm and well-mixed airmass with steep lapse rates will affect the Balkans. Along the frontal boundary, a tongue of rich low-level moisture will spread into eastern Europe with 0-1 km mixing ratio exceeding 9 g/kg from northern Italy to Hungary and Slovakia. This moisture will partly overlap with the good lapse rates, resulting in CAPE.

Main uncertainty is the low-level buoyancy due to diurnal heating. The highest potential of storms clearly exists across the Mediterranean Sea in the morning hours, and numerous storms are expected to go on from the Ligurian Sea to the northern Adriatic. Due to the slowly eastward movement of the upper trough, storms will gradually spread south-east into the Tyrrhenian Sea and central Adriatic. Some storms may also evolve across northern and central Italy in the noon/afternoon hours, but low-level stable air masses will limit the potential over most places.

The storms that form across southern Europe will be affected by weak shear. Therefore, well organized storms are not forecast. However, an isolated excessive rain event or a waterspout is not ruled out.

Further north-east, storms are expected to develop along the frontal boundary in the noon and afternoon hours. Main limiting factor will be again the weak low-level buoyancy and CIN may be too large for initiation. Storms that my form can become severe given 15 to 20 m/s 0-3 km vertical wind shear. Especially Mesocyclones may produce large hail and severe wind gusts. The potential decreases from Austria to Slovakia, but a few events are expected. Storms will rapidly weaken after sunset.

Related:

Meteoalarm – severe weather warnings for Europe

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS Updated 24 Oct 20131345z

Europe: ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: Level 1 for parts of France, Benelux, Germany, Italy and Iberia valid until 241013 0600Z. Tornadoes, Heavy rain and hail possible – 231013 1348z

Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 23 Oct 2013 06:00 to Thu 24 Oct 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 22 Oct 2013 21:15
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for Central France, BENELUX and Northwestern Germany mainly for tornadoes and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for Southern France and Northern Italy mainly for excessive precipitation and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for Western Iberia mainly for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

General macrosynoptic pattern will remain more or less the same as during the previous days – a broad southwesterly flow is forecast over much of Western and Central Europe situated between deep trough over the Atlantic and ridge over Eastern Europe. This trough will translate towards northeast, slightly de-amplifying the ridge but no major reconfiguration is expected. Unseasonably warm airmass has spread all the way up to Southern Scandinavia, while a weak CAA is expected behind the insignificant cold front that will move from France towards Germany. Another significant trough will approach the Iberian penninsula towards the Thursday morning hours.

DISCUSSION

… Central, NE France, BENELUX, NW Germany …

With cooler, moist airmass overspreading the region, low LCLs are forecast. Only moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will very likely limit the instability build-up, so that only few hundreds J/kg of CAPE are expected at best. Strong, unidirectional wind shear is simulated, with much of the shear within the lowest 1 km, yielding LLS values between 10-15 m/s in the region. With the belt of enhanced PV approaching the area, scattered DMC will initiate. In the strong shear regime, low-topped supercells are well possible, capable of severe wind gusts, tornadoes or some mostly sub-severe hail.

… S France, N / NW Italy ….

In the strong southwesterly flow, a belt of steep mid-level lapse rates is forecast to advect over the Mediterranean Sea along with moist low-level airmass. Moist flow experiencing uplift near the coastline or near the Alps will likely initiate widespread DMC – possibly featuring one or more MCS. In case of the training pattern, moist conditions might enhance precipitation efficiency and locally excessive rainfall is expected. Threat will shift from Southern France towards Northern Italy. MCS will likely start building southwards towards the unstable airmass during the Wednesday night hours. Enhanced low level shear near the coastline along with low cloud bases also point at the elevated tornado risk in the region, albeit this threat should be less prominent than the precipitation risk.

… W Iberia …

During the late afternoon / evening hours, tongue of moist and unstable airmass ahead of the trough is expected to initiate widespread DMC near the coastline. With strong low level convergence and enhanced mixing ratios, isolated excessive precipitation event is quite possible. Tornadoes can not be ruled out in this setup with stronger low level shear inland, albeit CAPE here will be likely mostly elevated, thus possibly rendering this shear ineffective.

Related:

Severe Weather Warnings for Europe. Orange Alerts for Switzerland, France, Italy and Netherlands http://www.meteoalarm.eu

France: ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: Level 1 for parts of France valid until Sun 201013 06:00Z. Isolated tornado events, Heavy rain, large hail possible – 191013 1325z

Storm Forecast

(Scroll down for French translation) (Faites dfiler vers le bas pour la traduction franaise)

 

 

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 19 Oct 2013 06:00 to Sun 20 Oct 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 18 Oct 2013 16:17
Forecaster: TUSCHY

 

A level 1 was issued for parts of C France mainly for isolated large hail, excessive rain and an isolated tornado event.

A level 1 was issued for a small part of S France mainly for isolated large hail and an isolated tornado event.

SYNOPSIS

A flat and transient omega-like pattern has established over Europe. A weakening upper trough over SE Europe remains in place with only a low-end motion to the east. Numerous vortices over the far E-Atlantic steer a warm/humid air mass far to the NE while a stout branch of the polar vortex over N-Norway/Sweden advects a cold airmass to the south. A deep baroclinic zone (e.g. in excess of 20 K difference at 500 hPa between Germany/N-Norway) is the result with an evolving 40 m/s mid-level streak over the Baltic Sea.

This kind of pattern results in a bisection of Europe from the North Sea to Greece. Areas to the east will feel the influx of cool/cold and dry continental air from the N whereas areas to the west see a gradual recovery of moisture, both due to advection of a modified subtropical air mass and a moistening W-Mediterranean air mass. Hence thunderstorm probs. over E/NE Europe remain confined to offshore and coastal areas with isolated/weakly electrified storms. Scattered and stronger storms however occur over far W Europe.

DISCUSSION

… Ireland and United Kingdom …

Ingredients for thunderstorms will be in place with some iffy signals however. Behind a ENE-ward moving front (already transforming from a cold front into an occlusion from N to S) seasonable BL moisture remains in place. Mid/upper jets also reveal a good placement for some lift in addition to a weak vort.max. crossing the area of interest from SW to NE between 12-18Z. However, forecast soundings show a meager depth of the BL moisture with constant drying above. Therefore onshore turbulent mixing next to some temporal heating lower confidence in adequate CAPE build-up well inland. Coastal areas (SW-ward facing) will see best moisture and at least 300 to 700 J/kg SBCAPE. Some veering in the lowest 2 km AGL is present along the coastal areas with 50-100 J/kg 0-3 km CAPE, so an isolated spout/short-lived tornado is possible. Effective PWs also approach 20 mm, which could lead to some heavy rain and 15-20 m/s 850 hpa flow should ensure gusty winds with stronger convection.

We expanded the lightning areas far offshore. Despite more hostile conditions for electrified storms with this type of air mass, approaching cooler mid-level air should increase the CAPE disperal in the mid-level graupel layer a bit. Hence confidence in more activity compared to yesterday has increased.

We also splayed the eastern part of the 15-% lightning area all the way to Denmark to cover a few elevated thunderstorm events beyond 12Z. This also includes parts of N France . This activity will be non-severe.

… S/C-France …

Odds increase to see an heavy and convectively enhanced rainfall event between Marseille and Montpellier .

A very moist air mass is in place over the far W-Mediterranean with no serious frontal intrusion forecast. Persistent SW-erly mid/upper flow and falling surface pressure to the W/NW should assist in a constant onshore flow and hence better onshore moisture over the area of interest.

However, position and strength of the mid/upper jets are not yet favorable during most of this forecast period but improve after midnight. The same with the LLJ, which showes some strengthening during the overnight hours. Hence, expect mainly onshore convection during daytime hours.

We issued a 50-% lightning area and a level 1 as persistent upslope flow towards the Massif Central could induce a cluster with isolated large hail (20 m/s DLS).

We also don’t want to exclude an isolated tornado event with LCLs below 1 km and enhanced LL shear. Interaction of mid/upper dynamics and aforementioned LLJ could also support a temporal back-building with excessive rain the main risk. Therefore the level 1 was expanded far inland.

Beyond 00Z, environmental conditions improve for a developing coastal cluster with back-building tendencies. With 20-25 m/s DLS and increasing SRH, any coastal storm should become organized and probably supercellular. Large hail and an isolated tornado will be the main hazards.

Current thoughts with late development of that cluster preclude an excessive rainfall – level issuance for now. In case of earlier CI, excessive rain will be added to the current level 1 wording.

French (Translated by Google)

tempête Prvisions

tempête Prvisions
Valable : sam 19 octobre 2013 06h00 à Sun le 20 octobre 2013 06:00 UTC
Publi : Vendredi 18 octobre 2013 16:17
Prvisionniste : TUSCHY

Un niveau 1 a t mis pour une partie de C France principalement pour de la grosse grêle isol, l’excès de pluie et une manifestation de tornades isoles.

Un niveau 1 a t dlivr pour une petite partie de S France principalement pour isol gros grêlons et une manifestation de tornade isol.

SYNOPSIS

Un modèle plat et transitoire omga -like a mis en place en Europe. Un affaiblissement creux en altitude sur l’Europe du Sud reste en place avec seulement un mouvement de bas de gamme à l’est. De nombreux tourbillons plus loin le E- Atlantique dirigent une masse d’air chaud / humide loin au NE tandis qu’une grosse branche du vortex polaire sur N-Norway/Sweden advecte une masse d’air froid vers le sud. Une zone barocline profonde (par exemple au-delà de 20 diffrence de K à 500 hPa entre l’Allemagne / N- Norvège) est le rsultat d’un 40 m / s volutive srie à mi-niveau sur la mer Baltique .
Ce genre de rsultats de motif dans une dichotomie de l’Europe à partir de la mer du Nord à la Grèce. Rgions à l’est se sentiront à l’afflux de froid / froid et sec air continental de la N tandis que les zones à l’ouest voient une reprise progressive de l’humidit , à la fois en raison d’ advection d’une masse d’air subtropical modifi et une masse d’air W -mditerranenne d’humidification . D’où probs orage. sur E / NE Europe de rester confine à des zones extractières et ctières avec isol / tempêtes faiblement lectrifies. pars et plus forts orages se produisent cependant plus loin W Europe.

DISCUSSION

… L’Irlande et le Royaume-Uni …

Ingrdients pour les orages seront mis en place avec certains signaux iffy cependant . Derrière un front mouvant ENE- Ward ( djà transformer à partir d’un front froid dans une occlusion de N à S) humidit BL de saison reste en place. Jets milieu / haut rvèlent galement un bon placement pour certains ascenseur en plus d’un vort.max faible. traversant la zone d’intrêt du SO vers le NE entre 12 – 18Z . Cependant, les sondages de prvisions montrent une profondeur maigre de l’humidit BL avec schage constante au-dessus . Par consquent onshore mlange turbulent à ct de certains chauffage temporal infrieur confiance suffisante CAPE accumulation et l’intrieur des terres . Les zones ctières (face SW- Ward) verront mieux l’humidit et au moins 300 à 700 J / kg SBCAPE . Certains virant au moins 2 km AGL est prsent le long des zones ctières 50-100 J / kg 0-3 km CAPE , si une tornade bec / courte dure isole est possible. PG efficaces abordent galement 20 mm , ce qui pourrait conduire à une forte pluie et 15-20 m / s 850 hpa dbit devrait assurer des rafales de vent à convection forte.

Nous avons largi les domaines de la foudre loin des ctes . Malgr des conditions plus hostiles pour les tempêtes lectrifies avec ce type de masse d’air , approchant refroidisseur d’air de niveau moyen devrait augmenter le CAPE Disperal dans la couche graupel mi- niveau un peu. D’où la confiance dans plus d’activit par rapport à hier a augment.

Nous avons galement vase de la partie orientale de la 15 – % de la superficie de l’clair tout le chemin au Danemark pour couvrir quelques vnements d’orage levs au-delà de 12Z . Cela inclut galement des parties de N France. Cette activit sera sans gravit .

… S / C- France …

Les chances augmentent de voir un vnement de pluie abondante et convection renforce entre Marseille et Montpellier.

Une masse d’air très humide est en place sur l’extrême W -mditerranen sans grave prvisions intrusion frontal. Persistent SW -rectement mi / dbit suprieur et chute de la pression de surface à l’ W / NW devrait contribuer à un flux constant onshore et l’humidit donc mieux à terre sur la zone d’intrêt . Toutefois, la position et la force des jets milieu / haut ne sont pas encore favorable pendant la majeure partie de cette priode de prvision mais s’amliorent après minuit. La même chose avec le LLJ , qui showes un renforcement pendant les heures de nuit . Par consquent, s’attendre à convection principalement à terre pendant la journe . Nous avons mis un 50 – zone de foudre % et un niveau 1 en coulement ascendant persistant vers le Massif Central pourrait induire un cluster avec de gros grêlons isol ( 20 m / s DLS ) . Nous ne voulons pas exclure un vnement de tornade isol avec LCL en dessous de 1 km et un cisaillement accru LL . Interaction des dynamiques milieu / haut et LLJ susmentionn pourrait galement soutenir un arrière – btiment temporelle avec l’excès de pluie , le risque principal . Par consquent, le niveau 1 a t tendu loin dans les terres .

Au-delà de 00Z , les conditions environnementales s’amliorent pour un cluster ctier en dveloppement avec des tendances arrière – btiment. Avec 20-25 m / s DLS et l’augmentation de la SSR , une tempête ctière doit s’organiser et probablement supercellular . Gros grêlons et une tornade isol seront les principaux dangers. Rflexions en cours avec le dveloppement tardif de ce cluster empêcher un excès de prcipitations – mission de niveau pour l’instant. En cas de CI plus tt , l’excès de pluie sera ajout à l’ actuel libell de niveau 1 .

Turkey/Greece/Italy/Slovenia/Croatia: Severe Weather including Tornado risk. ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: Levels 1 & 2 issued. Valid 161013 0600Z -171013 0600Z – Published 151013 2220z

Storm Forecast

European forecaster, ESTOFEX has issued the following forecast for severe weather:

 

 

Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 16 Oct 2013 06:00 to Thu 17 Oct 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 15 Oct 2013 21:51
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 2 was issued for Southwestern Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation, tornadoes and to the lesser extent for large hail and severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for Northwestern Turkey and Western Greece mainly for excessive precipitation and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Italy, Slovenia and Northern Croatia mainly for severe wind gusts and to the lesser extent for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

A strong zonal flow is forecast over much of Western and Central Europe in conjunction with the disturbance ariving from the Atlantic. Ahead of the disturbance, ridge will translate towards Central Europe. Northwesterly flow aloft should accelerate the movement of cut-off low, centered over the Czech Republic as of Wednesday morning, towards the Aegean region. Strong jet-streak is forecast to develop on its southwestern flank, yielding strong forcing in its exit region. This cut-off low and its influence on the Mediterranean region regarding the DMC occurence will become the primary issue to deal with this forecast period.

DISCUSSION

… Southwestern Turkey …

A tongue of moist airmass is forecast to reach the region, along with a band of steep mid-level lapse rates. ECMWF is particularly optimistic regarding the latent instability build-up, showing CAPE values above 2000 J/kg for the coastal areas! Region of high latent instability will shift slowly eastwards, in accordance with the advection of steep lapse-rates. Even though isolated to scattered storms might form along the coastline even during the day, the main timeframe of severe weather risk should be between 00 and 06 UTC. Low-level wind field is expected to strengthen with the arrival of the mid-level / upper-level forcing and formation of the surface low over the northern Aegean. Forecast soundings show very moist low levels, moderate CAPE and most importantly, pronounced veering and increase of low-level winds with height, yielding long, semi-circular hodographs. A full facet of severe weather types is possible – while more isolated storms might attain supercellular characteristics, capable of tornadoes, severe wind gusts and large hail, it is very likely that a large MCS will form. Effective PW values should be high and with strong low-level flow, excessive rainfall events are well possible with such MCS, besides an isolated event of severe wind gusts. Threat will likely continue well into the next forecast period and Level 2 seems to be warranted due to the combination of more severe threats.

… Western Greece / Northwestern Turkey …

These areas are not going to have as favourable conditions as SW Turkey, but still, strong forcing will provide more than enough compensation for lack of higher CAPE values, so that MCS propagating SE-wards will be likely, especially in the late evening / night hours. With enhanced LLS, isolated tornado event is not ruled out, albeit the primary threat should be in the form of excessive precipitation.

… Northeastern / Eastern Italy, Slovenia, Northern Croatia …

A brief window around 12 / 15 UTC will exist for the development of DMC in the very cold mid-level airmass. With jet-streak above the area, very strong DLS is forecast to overspread an area of marginal latent instability. Primary question is whether updrafts can get sustained in the environment of strong storm relative winds along with significant drying at mid-levels. A very conditional Level 1 is issued for the possibility of low-topped supercells capable of severe wind gusts and/or tornadoes (moist low levels and enhanced shear in the lowest 1 km).

Japan: Typhoon 25W WIPHA 151700Z nr 32.3N 138.4E, moving NE at 30 knots (JMA) – 151013 2115z

Typhoon Wipha

Large and powerful Category 1 Typhoon Wipha bearing down on Japan

Level 1 Tornado risk (see below)

(Scroll down for Japanese translation) (日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

All Tropical Cyclones

(Image: JMA) TC track (Click image for source)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

(Image: JMA) Current warnings (Click image for source)

TY 1326 (WIPHA)
Issued at 17:45 UTC, 15 October 2013

<Analyses at 15/17 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N32°20′(32.3°)
E138°25′(138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55km/h(30kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more E330km(180NM)
W280km(150NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E750km(400NM)
W600km(325NM)
<Estimate for 15/18 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N32°40′(32.7°)
E138°50′(138.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55km/h(30kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more E330km(180NM)
W280km(150NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E750km(400NM)
W600km(325NM)
<Forecast for 16/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N38°05′(38.1°)
E143°20′(143.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 75km/h(40kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area E480km(260NM)
W430km(230NM)
<Forecast for 16/15 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44°55′(44.9°)
E150°25′(150.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 85km/h(45kt)
Central pressure 968hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 240km(130NM)
Storm warning area E700km(375NM)
W650km(350NM)

Japan Radar

(Image: JMA) Japan Radar – Precipitation (Click image for source)

(Image: JMA) Japan Radar – TORNADO Probability (Click image for source)

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2513.gif

(Image: JTWC) TC Warning Graphic (Click image for source)

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (WIPHA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 30.5N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 040 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.5N 136.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 36.7N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 45 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 43.7N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 32.1N 137.8E.
TYPHOON 25W (WIPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 24W (NARI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Oct, 2013 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)

 

Typhoon WIPHA (25W) currently located near 32.7 N 138.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Japan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
probability for TS is 80% currently
Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Other Reports

Dangerous Typhoon Wipha Drenching Japan

By Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:45 PM GMT on October 15, 2013

“Large and powerful Category 1 Typhoon Wipha is bearing down on Japan as the storm races northeast at 28 mph.

Wipha is likely to be the strongest typhoon to hit Japan since Typhoon Tokage of October 2004, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Wipha is merging with a cold front and undergoing the transition to an extratropical storm–the same process Hurricane Sandy underwent as it approached landfall in October 2012. While Typhoon Wipha is not as powerful as Sandy, it does have a huge area of winds in excess of 50 knots (57.5 mph), which extend out 130 miles to the left of the center. Since the center of Wipha is expected to graze the southern coast of Japan today, and the storm will only weaken slightly, a 100-mile-wide swath of Japan will see damaging winds of 50 knots, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. About a 30 mile-wide swath of Japan will experience winds of 75 mph (hurricane force.) Tokyo will be right at the edge of the hurricane-force wind swath. With many trees still in leaf, these winds will cause widespread tree damage and downed power lines. The counter-clockwise flow of moist, tropical air around the center of Wipha is meeting up with the cold front currently over Japan. This is generating torrential rains over large portions of the country, as the moist air is forced upwards over the cold front, making the air expand and cool, condensing its copious moisture. Radar precipitation estimates show that rainfall rates of 1 – 2″ per hour were occurring near Tokyo today. Heavy rains of 4 – 8″ capable of causing damaging flooding will be widespread over Japan, including over the Fukushima nuclear site, where rainfall from Typhoon Man-Yi on September 16 complicated clean-up efforts of the reactors damaged by the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

Japan may not be all done with typhoons this month, as both the GFS and European models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 93W) east of the Philippines will develop into a tropical storm late this week, which will then head northwest and threaten Japan by next Wednesday, October 23.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Wipha approaching Japan, taken at approximately 04:25 UTC on October 15, 2013. At the time, Wipha was a Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

” – Weather Underground

MARITIME

(Image: JMA) Marine Warnings (Click image for source)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP23 RJTD 151800
WARNING 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1326 WIPHA (1326) 955 HPA
AT 32.7N 138.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 40.2N 145.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
964 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 46.6N 153.1E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
968 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 151800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 996 HPA
AT 54N 153E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER SEA OF JAPAN.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER EAST CHINA SEA.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 60N 170E 60N 180E 46N 180E 50N 170E 60N 170E.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 13.6N 147.2E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 14.4N 142.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 15N 105E WEST 15 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 37N 115E ESE 15 KT.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 39N 170E EAST 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 139E TO 37N 142E 40N 149E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1326 WIPHA (1326) 955 HPA AT 32.7N 138.9E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Japanese (Translated by Google)

日本:30ノット( JMA )でNEを移動する台風25W WIPHA 151700Z NR 32.3N 138.4E 、 – 151013 2115z

台風Wipha
大規模かつ強力なカテゴリー1台風Wiphaは日本を下にベアリング

レベル1トルネードリスク(下記参照)

(日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン) (日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン)

(画像: wunderground.com ) 5日間の予報(ソース画像をクリック)

(画像: wunderground.com )衛星(ソース画像をクリック)

気象庁

すべての熱帯サイクロン
(画像: JMA ) TCトラック(ソース画像をクリック)

現在有効な警告/勧告

(画像: JMA )現在の警告(ソース画像をクリック)

TY 1326 ( WIPHA )
午後5時45分UTC 、 2013年10月15日に発行される
17分の15 UTC>で<Analyses
大規模
強い強度
中心位置N32 °20 ‘ (32.3 °)
E138 °25 ‘ ( 138.4 °)
動きNE毎時55キロ( 30カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧955hPa
中央35メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 70カラット)
最大突風スピード50メートル/秒( 100カラット)
50カラット風の面積以上E330km ( 180nm以下)
W280km ( 150nmの)
30カラット風の面積以上E750km ( 400nmの)
W600km ( 325NM )
18分の15 UTC>ため<Estimate
大規模
強い強度
中心位置N32 °40 ‘ (32.7 °)
E138 °50 ‘ ( 138.8 °)
動きNE毎時55キロ( 30カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧955hPa
中央35メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 70カラット)
最大突風スピード50メートル/秒( 100カラット)
50カラット風の面積以上E330km ( 180nm以下)
W280km ( 150nmの)
30カラット風の面積以上E750km ( 400nmの)
W600km ( 325NM )
16/03 UTC>ため<Forecast
強い強度
確率サークルN38 ° 05 ‘の中心位置(38.1 °)
E143 °20 ‘ ( 143.3 °)
動きNE毎時75キロ( 40カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧960hPa
中央35メートル/秒付近で最大風速( 70カラット)
最大突風スピード50メートル/秒( 100カラット)
確率160キロの円の半径( 85NM )
ストーム警告エリアE480km ( 260nmの)
W430km ( 230NM )
15分の16 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
LOW
確率サークルN44の中心位置°55 ‘ ( 44.9 °)
E150 °25 ‘ ( 150.4 °)
動きNE毎時85キロ( 45カラット)の方向と速度
中心気圧968hPa
最大持続風速35メートル/秒( 65カラット)
最大突風スピード50メートル/秒( 95カラット)
確率240キロの円の半径( 130nmプロセス)
ストーム警告エリアE700km (約375nm )
W650km ( 350nmの)
日本レーダー

(画像: JMA )日本レーダー – 降水量(ソース画像をクリック)

(画像: JMA )は、日本のレーダー – TORNADO確率(ソース画像をクリック)

合同台風警報センター( JTWC )


(画像: JTWC ) TC警告グラフィック(ソースの画像をクリック)

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN真珠湾HI / /
SUBJ /熱帯低気圧の警告/ /
RMKS /
1 。 TYPHOON 25W ( WIPHA )警告NR 021
NORTHWESTPAC IN 02 ACTIVE熱帯低気圧
MAXはONE- MINUTE平均に基づいてWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

警告POSITION :
151200Z — NEAR 30.5N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 25 KTS AT 040 DEGREES
020 NM以内の正確な位置
POSITIONは、衛星のそば中心を基準に
PRESENT WIND配分:
075 KT 、突風090 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
温帯BECOMING
064 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
034 KTのWINDS OF RADIUS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
30.5N 136.5E : POSITを繰り返す

予測:
AT VALID 12時間:
160000Z — 36.7N 141.6E
065 KT 、突風080 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
温帯
24人事POSITへのベクトル: 035 DEG / 45 KTS

AT VALID 24時間:
161200Z — 43.7N 149.1E
055 KT 、突風070 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
温帯

備考:
32.1N 137.8E NEAR 151500Z POSITION 。
LOCATED TYPHOON 25W ( WIPHA ) 、約345ナノメートルの南南西
横須賀、日本は過去OVER 25ノットで北東追跡して
六時間。 151200Zで最大有義波高は33フィートです。
152100Z 、 160300Z AND 160900Z AT NEXT警告。 TROPICALを参照してください
SIX – HOURLY更新用のSTORM 24W ( NARI )警告( WTPN32 PGTW ) 。 / /
NNNN
TSR logoNW太平洋: 10月15日に発行したストームの警告、 2013夜06時00分GMT (最終警告)

台風WIPHA ( 25W )は、現在32.7の近くにN 138.9 Eが与えられたリードタイム( s)で、次の可能性(複数可)に土地を打つと予測されている:

レッドアラート国(s)または州( S)
日本
CAT 1の確率以上では、12時間以内に70%である
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%

イエローアラート市(s)とタウン(S)
いわき(37.0 N 、 140.8 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に100%
東京( 35.7 N 、 139.8 E )
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%
静岡(35.0 N 、 138.5 E )
TSのための確率は現在のところ100%
宮古( 39.7 N 、 141.9 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に100%
仙台市( 38.3 N 、 140.9 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に100%
名古屋( 35.2 N 、 136.9 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に95%で
釧路( 43.0 N 、 144.4 E )
TSのための確率は約24時間で85%
新潟( 37.8 N 、 139.2 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に80%
塩野 – 美咲( 33.5 N 、 135.8 E )
TSのための確率は現在80%である
坂田(39.0 N 、 140.0 E )
TSの確率は、12時間以内に65%である

注意してください
レッドアラートは、 (重症) CAT 1または% 31 〜100 %の確率に上です。
イエローアラート(高架) CAT 1以上〜10 %と30 %の確率、又はTSの間に50%以上の確率である。
CAT 1は、少なくとも毎時74マイルの台風の強さの風、毎時119キロまたは64ノット1分間の持続を意味している。
TSは、少なくとも毎時39マイルの熱帯性低気圧の強さの風を意味し、毎時63キロまたは34ノット1分持続。

グラフィカルな予測情報と詳細についてhttp://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/をご覧くださ&#12356;

ストームトラッカー地図
その他のレポート
危ない台風Wipha灌注日本

ジェフマスターズ博士、 2013年10月15日に15:45 GMTによって
“大型で強力なカテゴリー1台風Wipha 28 MPHで北東嵐レースとして日本にダウン軸受である。

Wiphaは、気象庁によると、 2004年10月の台風蜥蜴以来、日本をヒットする最強台風である可能性が高い。

Wiphaは寒冷前線と合併し、温帯嵐への移行を受けている – それは2012年10月上陸に近づいたのと同じプロセスハリケーンサンディは受けた。台風Wiphaはサンディのように強力ではないですが、それは中央の左側に130マイルを引き出さ50ノット(毎時57.5マイル)を超える風の巨大な面積を持っていません。 Wiphaの中心が現在の日本の南岸を放牧し、嵐はわずかに弱体化すると予想されているので、日本の100マイルの広い観測幅は、気象庁によると、 50ノットの有害な風を見ることができます。日本の30マイル幅の帯状については、毎時75マイル(ハリケーン力。 )東京は、右ハリケーン力の風の観測幅の端になるの風を経験するでしょう。まだ葉に多くの木によると、これらの風が広まっ木の損傷やダウンした電力線が発生します。 Wiphaの中心の周りに湿った、熱帯の空気の反時計回りの流れは、現在全国の寒冷前線にまで満たしている。湿った空気が寒冷前線にわたって上向きに強制されるので、これは空気が膨張し、冷却、その豊富な水分を凝縮すること、国の大部分にわたって集中豪雨が発生している。 2 “時間当たり今日東京の近くで発生した4の豪雨を – – 8″レーダー降水量の見積もりは1の降雨率があることを示す損傷洪水を引き起こすことができるには含めて、全国広範なる福島原子力サイト上に、どこに台風マンから降雨9月イー2011年3月の地震と津波によって損傷原子炉の16複雑なクリーンアップの努力。

GFSと欧州モデルの両方が邪魔天候( 93Wを投資) 、フィリピンの東の面積が、後半に今週熱帯暴風雨に発展するその後北西を率いるれるとことを予測しているように、日本は、今月の台風で行われたすべてのできない場合がありますnext 10月23日(水曜日) 、日本を脅かす。

図1を参照。台風WiphaのMODIS衛星画像では、 2013年10月15日に約4時25 UTCに取られ、日本を、近づいています。当時、 Wiphaは毎時90マイルの風でカテゴリー1の嵐だった。画像クレジット: NASA 。

” – キャンペーン応募はこちら
MARITIME

(画像: JMA )マリン警告(ソース画像をクリック)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP23は151800をRJTD
WARNING 151800 。
VALID 161800警告。
警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。
台風警報。
TYPHOON 1326 WIPHA ( 1326 ) 955 HPA
32.7N日本国138.9E SEA SOUTHは、北東30ノットMOVING 。
良いポジション。
MAXは、中心部に近い70ノットの風。
50 OVER KNOTのWINDSの半径は180 kmイースト半円AND 150マイル
ELSEWHERE 。
30 OVER KNOTのWINDSの半径は500 kmイースト半円AND 325マイル
ELSEWHERE 。
85マイルの半径40.2N 145.4E AT 160600UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
964 HPA 、MAXは65ノットの風。
温帯LOW BECOMING 。
130マイルの半径46.6N 153.1E AT 161800UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
968 HPA 、 MAX WINDS 65ノット。
温帯LOW BECOMING 。

気象庁。 =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 151800
WARNINGと要約151800 。
VALID 161800警告。
警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。
GALE警告。
開発した低996 HPA
オホーツクはEAST 15ノットを移動54N 153Eの海で。
LOWの400マイル以内WINDSは、30〜 45ノット。
GALE警告。
北東の風が30〜45ノット日本海OVER優勢。
GALE警告。
北風は、 30 〜35ノット東シナ海OVER優勢。
GALE警告。
OVER実勢30 〜35 KNOTS北西風TO北風
WATERSは60N 170E 60N 180E 46N 180E 50N 170E 60N 170Eに囲まれ。
GALE警告。
熱帯低気圧1004 HPA
WEST 12ノットMOVING 13.6N 147.2EマリアナAT 。
POSITIONのFAIR 。
MAXは、中心部に近い30ノットの風。
EXPECTED MAXのWINDS NEXT 24時間の中心部に近い35ノット。
120マイルの半径14.4N 142.6E AT 161800UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
概要。
15N 105E WEST 15 KT AT熱帯低気圧千HPA 。
37N 115E ESE 15 KT AT HIGH 1028 HPA 。
39N 170E EAST 15 KT AT HIGH 1032 HPA 。
35N 139E FROM 37N 142E 40N 149Eに対して静止FRONT 。
REMARKS 。
TYPHOON 1326 WIPHA ( 1326 ) 32.7N 138.9E AT 955 HPAは: TROPICAL SEE
CYCLONE警告。

気象庁。 =

Albania/Algeria/Tunisia/Mediterranean/Italy/Greece: Severe Weather including Tornado risk.ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: Levels 1 & 2 issued. Valid 101013 0600Z -111013 0600Z – Published 091013 2310z

Storm Forecast

European forecaster, ESTOFEX has issued the following forecast for severe weather:

Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 10 Oct 2013 06:00 to Fri 11 Oct 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 09 Oct 2013 22:39
Forecaster: GATZEN

 

A level 2 was issued for western Albania and surroundings mainly for excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for northern Algeria and Tunisia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the central Mediterranean from Tunisia across southern Italy to the southern Adriatic and Greece mainly for excessive precipitation and tornadoes and to a lower extend large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the northern Adriatic and surroundings mainly for excessive precipitation, large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

An intense cut-off process is underway at the eastern flank of an Atlantic ridge. At the end of the forecast period, a closed low will be centred across France. This will be associated with a westerly to south-westerly flow across the Mediterranean and warm air advection especially in the eastern portions. Across eastern Europe, a weak trough will move north-eastward.

DISCUSSION

Algeria to Sicily and Greece

Increasing warm air advection is expected across the area due to south-westerly flow in the wake of a lifting trough moving north-east into eastern Europe. An elevated mixed layer will spread north-east across the south Mediterranean Sea. The low-level mixing ratio will increase in the capped maritime boundary-layer due to the warm sea surface temperature. The plume of rich boundary-layer moisture will advect northward with the low-level flow, leaving the area of the strong inversion.

Additionally, several jet streaks will travel east along the 20 m/s jet stream that will provide QG lift from Algeria towards Greece.

Current thinking is that another round of frequent convective activity will affect the area until Friday morning. Storms will likely organize given the strong deep layer vertical wind shear, and mesoscale convective systems may move east or northeast.

The main threat will be excessive rain through-out the period as the storms will affect the same area along the warm air advection regime from Sicily to Greece for a longer time. Additionally, the high moisture will increase the chance of intense downdrafts. The western coasts and mountain areas are most at risk due to upslope flow where a level 2 was issued.

An additional risk are tornadoes due to locally large low-level hodographs together with strong low-level buoyancy near the coasts. Isolated severe wind gusts and large hail are mostly expected across Algeria and Tunisia during the afternoon and evening hours.

Northern Adriatic and surroundings

Strong QG lift is expected ahead of the European cut-off low that will spread into the northern Adriatic late in the period. Given the rather most and warm boundary-layer ahead of the cold front, CAPE is forecast and thunderstorms will likely form especially in the evening and night hours. As vertical wind shear will be strong, storm will quickly organize and supercells and multicells capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast. Additionally, excessive precipitation is expected especially in the eastern portions of the area. Near the Adriatic Sea, tornadoes may also occur given the strong low-level vertical wind shear.”

Related:

Meteoalarm – severe weather warnings for Europe

US: Tornadoes bring chaos to Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, at least 15 injured – 051013 1705z

At least two tornadoes were spotted in the Sioux City region Friday night. Extensive damage was reported outside Wayne, Neb.

The storm tore down power lines and broke trees in the northwest corner of Dakota County, near Dixon County, in Nebraska, but officials weren’t aware of any structural damage by 8 p.m.

The Dakota County Sheriff’s Office sent a deputy to help with the situation in Wayne.

Saturday, 05 October, 2013 at 03:58 (03:58 AM) UTC RSOE

Injuries were reported in Wayne, Neb., where a tornado hit about 5:30 p.m. (6:30 p.m. ET). Providence Medical Center said it was treating seven “walking wounded” and seven others who were injured in auto accidents.

A trauma patient was being treated at a second hospital, it said. At least four homes and the city’s softball complex were destroyed, The Weather Channel reported, and all roads into the city were closed, the Nebraska State Patrol said.

Several people were trapped in a building, and a hazardous materials crew was en route to evaluate a gas leak at a supply company, Jodie Fawl, a spokeswoman for the Nebraska Emergency Management Agency, told The Omaha World-Herald. “The tornado ripped through the east side of town” about three blocks from Wayne State College, Jay Collier, a spokesman for the college, told the Omaha paper. “We are doing everything we can to assist the city.” Lucinda Robertson, a spokeswoman for the Iowa Homeland Security and Emergency Management Department, told NBC News that a tornado was also reported to have touched down in rural Woodbury County. Woodbury County Sheriff’s Lt. Tony Wingert said parts of the area were heavily damaged. “It’s a mess,” Wingert told the Argus Leader newspaper of nearby Sioux Falls, S.D. “We have more than 30 rural homes destroyed, farms destroyed. We don’t have a number for the number of cars destroyed.” So far, no injuries had been reported, he said.

Saturday, 05 October, 2013 at 04:03 UTC RSOE

A storm left a path of damage from Sloan, Iowa, up through the Moville, Iowa, area, said Woodbury County Disaster Services Manager Gary Brown.

He said the storm damaged and destroyed homes, buildings and crops. Crews were assessing the damage. Pea-sized hail was reported in Moville, Iowa, where the National Weather Service said a mile-wide tornado touched down. It was seen just before 7 p.m. Early witness reports indicated that the town had seen major damage. Rural residents ran for their basements after a tornado ripped through a portion of Climbing Hill. Several houses, barns and garages were hit. One home, in the 2700 block of 230th Street, had windows blown out but was left standing. A nearby garage was demolished, and debris was left impaled in one of the barns still standing on the property. The twister stripped trees of bark and limbs, and ripped a hedgerow in half down the road. Garrett Little, who saw the twister touch down in Climbing Hill, said the property belongs to his father-in-law, Ping Davis. Davis was not injured, he said.

Saturday, 05 October, 2013 at 03:59 (03:59 AM) UTC RSOE

A ‘Tornado Emergency’ was declared after reports ofcatastrophic damage in #QUIMBY and the still moving NE towards Cherokee.

What is a TORNADO EMERGENCY?(Link)

Other Reports

Tornadoes cause damage, injuries across Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota

This story was originally published by nbcnews on

KTIV-TV

A tornado in Wayne, Neb., ripped roofs off several structures and injured more than a dozen people Friday.

Multiple tornadoes one of them a mile wide struck Iowa, Nebraska and South Dakota on Friday, injuring up to 15 people and causing significant damage, meteorologists and local authorities said.

The Weather Channel counted 17 reports of tornadoes across the three states. The National Weather Service reported late Friday that it had confirmed six of the reports four of them in Iowa.

The injuries were reported in Wayne, Neb., where a tornado hit about 5:30 p.m. (6:30 p.m. ET). Providence Medical Center said it was treating seven “walking wounded” and seven others who were injured in auto accidents. A trauma patient was being treated at a second hospital, it said.At least four homes and the city’s softball complex were destroyed,The Weather Channel reported, and all roads into the city were closed, the Nebraska State Patrol said.

Several people were trapped in a building, and a hazardous materials crew was en route to evaluate a gas leak at a supply company,Jodie Fawl, a spokeswoman for the Nebraska Emergency Management Agency,told The Omaha World-Herald.

“The tornado ripped through the east side of town” about three blocks from Wayne State College, Jay Collier, a spokesman for the college, told the Omaha paper. “We are doing everything we can to assist the city.”

The Wayne Daily News reported late Friday that many buildings in the town’s main industrial park were destroyed or heavily damaged, along with several homes south of the city.

Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman declared Wayne a disaster area.

Lucinda Robertson, a spokeswoman for the Iowa Homeland Security and Emergency Management Department, told NBC News that a tornado was also reported to have touched down in rural Woodbury County.

Woodbury County Sheriff’s Lt. Tony Wingert said parts of the area were heavily damaged.

“It’s a mess,” Wingert told the Argus Leader newspaper of nearby Sioux Falls, S.D. “We have more than 30 rural homes destroyed, farms destroyed. We don’t have a number for the number of cars destroyed.”

So far, no injuries had been reported, he said.

Major damage was also reported in Quimby, Iowa, after a twister touched down around 7:30 p.m., the National Weather Service said. And preliminary assessments indicated significant damage in the town of Moville, Iowa, where a tornado estimated at a mile wide hit at 6:57 p.m.

The National Weather Service, citing local firefighters, said damage was also reported in Jefferson, S.D., where Steve Stouffer told The Sioux City Journal that he was outside when the storm hit his neighborhood.

“I saw a wall of water coming, and then the wind switched from the east to the south real fast,” he said. “Then I decided it was time to go into the house.”

While scattered tornado watches remained in effect at 10:30 p.m. ET, most advisories across the region had been downgraded to severe thunderstorm warnings.

The National Weather Service said the tornadoes were part of a “supercell” storm system that moved into the Midwest after it dumped almost 3 feet of snow on parts of Wyoming and South Dakota.

At least three deaths have been blamed on the snow after a pickup truck skidded and went out of control Friday morning on snow-slickened U.S. Highway 20 in Dawes County in northeastern Nebraska, investigators said.

Gil Aegerter and Christopher E. Nelson of NBC News contributed to this report.

Videos

Tornadoes Touch Down In Nebraska, Iowa Reports Of Damaged homes, Vehicles Flipped

(Video credit: BreakingNewzStories)

Published on Oct 5, 2013

SIOUX FALLS, S.D. — SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (AP) — A storm system that buried parts of Wyoming and South Dakota in heavy, wet snow on Friday also brought powerful thunderstorms packing tornadoes to the Great Plains.

A storm dumped at least 33 inches of snow in a part of South Dakota’s scenic Black Hills, National Weather Service meteorologist Eric Helgeson said Friday afternoon. Later in the day, thunderstorms rolled across the Plains, and witnesses reported seeing tornadoes in Nebraska, Iowa and South Dakota. There were no reports of deaths from any of the tornadoes.

Earlier in the day, snow was blamed for the deaths of three people who were killed in a traffic accident on snow-slicked U.S. 20 in northeast Nebraska.

Forecasters said the cold front would eventually combine with other storms to make for a wild, and probably very wet, weekend for much of the central U.S. and Southeast.

Some of the greatest damage from tornadoes seemed to be in Wayne, Neb., a town of 9,600 where witnesses said at least four homes were destroyed. Mayor Ken Chamberlain said all of the residents in town were accounted for, but the storm caused millions of dollars in damage to an area that includes businesses and the city’s softball complex.

At least 15 people were hurt in Wayne, but Chamberlain said none of the injuries was considered life-threatening, Chamberlain said. Seven of the injuries stemmed from two separate automobile accidents.

In Iowa, the state’s Iowa Department of Homeland Security said a mile-wide tornado touched down near the town of Cherokee, cutting a 2- to 3-mile path through farmland but missing any population centers.

Meteorologists with the National Weather Service said they were still trying to figure out exactly how many twisters touched down Friday evening from storms that also brought large hail and heavy rain.

The snow in South Dakota prompted officials in Deadwood to postpone their annual Octoberfest, including Friday night’s dancing-and-singing pub crawl and Saturday’s Wiener Dog Races and Beer Barrel Games

10/4/2013 Wayne, NE Tornado Footage from the TWC Storm Riders

(Video credit: StormChasingVideo)

Published on Oct 4, 2013

Brand new footage from Simon Brewer and Juston Drake of The Weather Channels “Storm Riders” show. B-Roll footage of a large multi-vortex transitioning into a mega wedge tornado near Wayne, NE on 10/04/2013 at around 5 PM CDT

Nebraska Tornadoes Wipe Out Farms Debris Found miles away Corn field path of destruction

(Video credit: mamma tejada)

Published on Oct 5, 2013

Nebraska Tornadoes Wipe Out Farms Debris Found miles away Corn field path of destruction. Multiple tornadoes — one of them a mile wide — struck Iowa, Nebraska and South Dakota on Friday, injuring up to 15 people and causing significant damage, meteorologists and local authorities said.
The Weather Channel counted 17 reports of tornadoes across the three states. The National Weather Service reported late Friday that it had confirmed six of the reports — four of them in Iowa.
The injuries were reported in Wayne, Neb., where a tornado hit about 5:30 p.m. (6:30 p.m. ET). Providence Medical Center said it was treating seven “walking wounded” and seven others who were injured in auto accidents. A trauma patient was being treated at a second hospital, it said.
At least four homes and the city’s softball complex were destroyed, The Weather Channel reported, and all roads into the city were closed, the Nebraska State Patrol said.
Several people were trapped in a building, and a hazardous materials crew was en route to evaluate a gas leak at a supply company, Jodie Fawl, a spokeswoman for the Nebraska Emergency Management Agency, told The Omaha World-Herald.
“The tornado ripped through the east side of town” about three blocks from Wayne State College, Jay Collier, a spokesman for the college, told the Omaha paper. “We are doing everything we can to assist the city.”
The Wayne Daily News reported late Friday that many buildings in the town’s main industrial park were destroyed or heavily damaged, along with several homes south of the city.
Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman declared Wayne a disaster area.
Lucinda Robertson, a spokeswoman for the Iowa Homeland Security and Emergency Management Department, told NBC News that a tornado was also reported to have touched down in rural Woodbury County.
Woodbury County Sheriff’s Lt. Tony Wingert said parts of the area were heavily damaged.
“It’s a mess,” Wingert told the Argus Leader newspaper of nearby Sioux Falls, S.D. “We have more than 30 rural homes destroyed, farms destroyed. We don’t have a number for the number of cars destroyed.”

 

The Bahamas: Tornado in Nassau near Lynden PIndling International Airport – 180913 2100z

Reports are coming in about a tornado that touched down in Nassau on September 17th near the Lynden PIndling International Airport around 2:45pm.

Airport employees at Lynden Pindling International Airport in Nassau run as a tornado approaches. (Photo: WSVN-TV)

Tornado-LG.jpg

The photo seen here was tweeted on Twitter: “Tornado near Lynden Pindling International Airport in Nassau, Bahamas. Photo by Ras’Deniro Thompson”

A meteorologist told the Bahamas Tribune that the waterspout turned into a tornado for “a few moments” before dissipating.

No injuries have been reported but several aircraft were damaged.

The Bahamas Department of Meteorology had issued a severe thunderstorm warning until 5 p.m. for the New Providence and North Andros.
Wednesday, 18 September, 2013 at 18:25 (06:25 PM) UTC RSOE

 

Other Reports

Plane overturns at LPIA following a tornado touchdown at airport

An aircraft thrown into the air and on the ground at LPIA minutes ago following a tornado.

Breaking News coming into Bahamas Press confirms a scary tornado has touched down at LPIA suspending service for a few minutes.

The breaking news developed as dark clouds swirlled around the nations gateway. No one was injured, but a small aircraft was thrown over and rested upside down on the tarmac while others were spinning like toys out of control.

BP is live on the ground in the area and, although no one was hurt, the high winds and power of the tornado did make the area scary.

What next will hit the West? We have dead bodies showing up at Clifton. People vanishing at Clifton. Weapons coming in at Clifton. Deadly Toads in Lyford Cay WHAT NEXT?

Meanwhile, Bahamas Press is reporting an accident on Mackey Street, which has thrown that area into darkness BP IS LIVE ON THE GROUND reporting..

LPIA under tornado watch today…

LPIA scare as tornado touches down.

Tornado touches down in Nassau, Bahamas by Lynden Pindling Intl Airport
By The Bahamas Weekly News Team
Sep 18, 2013 – 12:25:05 PM

Other Videos

Amazing Water Spout in The Bahamas

(Video credit: Noo Generashun)

Published on Sep 17, 2013

Video footage shot by Neil Knowles (Facebook link)

Tornado Touches Down @ LPIA


(Video credit: ZNSNetwork) Published on Sep 18, 2013

Italy: Tornado risk & Thunderstorms across Napoli, Taranto and Bari. Waterspouts spotted – 270813 1800z

There are lots of thunderstorms in Italy, across Napoli, Taranto and Bari. Heavy rainfall, (large) hail and severe wind gusts are the main threats. An isolated tornado event or waterspout event can’t be ruled out. Keep an eye on the radar. – StormhunterNL

Roma – Trombe marine sul mare di Anzio (27 Agosto 2013)

(Video credit: judanetwork·)

Published on Aug 27, 2013

Due trombe marine si sono unite sul mare di Anzio (ROMA)

Two waterspouts were joined on Anzio (Rome)

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Tromba di aria sul mare di Portici

20 AUG 2013 – ITALY: Non-mesocycl. TORNADO over water (WATERSPOUT) observed over Golfo di Napoli, near Portici, S of Napoli (Naples). Impressive video –

Skywarn Europe

Weather warnings (meteoalarm): Italy

(Image: meteoalarm.eu)

MORE DETAIL: http://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IT-Italy.html

Related

Italy: Tornado in central Sicily 14 August 2013 (Video) – 140813 2103z

Italy: Tornado in central Sicily 14 August 2013 (Video) – 140813 2103z

Published by meteogiornale.it 14/08/2013 21:11

(Translation by Google)
In the late afternoon a tornado struck the countryside of Sicily, between Enna and Catenanuova, in one of the warmer parts of Europe, along a section of the Palermo-Catania.
Here’s the video of the event taken by a motorist passing on the highway.

(Video credit: MeteoWebTV)
The area is sparsely populated and at the time there were no damages.
Sicily is historically in Europe, the region that has seen the most devastating tornado, or at least they have produced more victims. In December of 1851 there were about 500 victims of two tornadoes in Messina.

(Twitter credits: , )