East Pacific/ Mexico: Tropical Storm Dora (04E) 25/1500Z nr 15.0N 101.8W, moving WNW 10 kt (NHC FL) – Published 25 Jun 2017 1608z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Dora 04E

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 12 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center FL

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 251432
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dora Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

…DORA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN…
…HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.0N 101.8W
ABOUT 180 MI…295 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI…520 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dora was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 101.8 West. Dora is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of Dora is expected to move parallel
to but remain offshore of the coast of Mexico.

Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Dora could become a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Dora is expected to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 3
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches along coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan
through Monday.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 04E (Dora) Warning #02
Issued at 25/1000Z

WTPN31 PHNC 251000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
250600Z — NEAR 14.5N 100.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 100.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z — 15.5N 102.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 16.4N 104.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 17.5N 106.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 18.4N 107.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 19.5N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 20.3N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 20.0N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

REMARKS:
251000Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 101.1W.
TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1422 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND
261000Z.//
NNNN

Other

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
FZPN03 KNHC 251554
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN JUN 25 2017

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUN 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON JUN 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUN 27.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 15.0N 101.8W 1001 MB AT 1500 UTC JUN
25 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM N
SEMICIRCLE…30 NM SE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO
14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE AND 60 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DORA NEAR 16.8N 105.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT…40 NM SE QUADRANT…30 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
60 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DORA NEAR 18.6N 108.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER…WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 19.6N 111.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 20.3N 115.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DORA NEAR 20.0N
118.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.N OF 24N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN N
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N W OF 139W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 8 FT IN N SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02S E OF 106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SUN JUN 25…

.TROPICAL STORM DORA…NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF DORA. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 99W
AND 105W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N TO 07N E OF 81W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N84W TO 12N94W, IT THEN RESUMES AT 10N107W
TO 07N131W. ITCZ FROM 07N131W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 126W AND 129W.

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

===========================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Tropical Depression Beatriz 02E 021000Z nr 16.6N 96.2W, moving NNE about 05kt (JTWC) – Updated 02 Jun 2017 1318z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Beatriz (02E)

…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS (AND MUDSLIDES) POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF OAXACA DUE TO PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINS…

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 02E (Beatriz) Warning #08
Issued at 02/1000Z

ep0217 jtwc 02

02E_020600sair 02

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 021000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BEATRIZ) WARNING NR 008
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
020600Z — NEAR 16.2N 96.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 96.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z — 17.3N 95.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

REMARKS:
021000Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 96.2W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BEATRIZ), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1497 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021600Z.
//
NNNN

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

084041_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind 02

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 020835
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Beatriz Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022017
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2017

…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF
OAXACA DUE TO PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINS…
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.5N 96.3W
ABOUT 55 MI…90 KM NNE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Beatriz
was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 96.3 West. Beatriz
is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast
track, the center of Beatriz is expected to move farther inland over
the state of Oaxaca through the day.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Beatriz is expected to dissipate later
today over the mountains of southeastern Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Beatriz is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches across the Mexican state of Oaxaca
with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches possible. This rainfall
is likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Lighter amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range are possible across the
southern portion of the Mexican state of Veracruz.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

NE Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 2 Jun, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Depression BEATRIZ is currently located near 16.5 N 96.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). BEATRIZ is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Oaxaca (17.1 N, 96.7 W)
        probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours
    Puerto Angel (15.8 N, 96.5 W)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Other

DBSK8-PVYAAQ_pS

(Image: DoctorAdvice4u.com at 02/0253 UTC)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm3 02

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0900 UTC FRI JUN 02 2017

WTPZ22 KNHC 020834
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022017
0900 UTC FRI JUN 02 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 96.3W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 96.3W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 96.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.3N 95.9W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 96.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BERG

000
FZPN03 KNHC 020926 CCA
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC FRI JUN 02 2017

CORRECTED PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR ITCZ

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC FRI JUN 02.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT JUN 03.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUN 04.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ INLAND NEAR 16.5N 96.3W 1007 MB AT
0900 UTC JUN 02 MOVING NNE OR 025 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 97W AND 103W SEAS 8 FT PRIMARILY
IN SW SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BEATRIZ NEAR 17.3N
95.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.FROM 08N TO 11N W OF 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NE
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.S OF LINE FROM 03.4S99W TO 01S106W TO 00N116W TO 02S120W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 03.4S107W TO 01S116W TO 01S120W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 03.4S102W TO 02S106W TO 00N115W
TO 01S120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC FRI JUN 02…

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ…NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED
STRONG N OF 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 99W.

.TROPICAL WAVE FROM 04N85W TO 13N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 05N85W TO
13N89W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 13N100W TO 08N113W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
08N113W TO 08N127W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
07N TO 11N W OF 132W.

$$
.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific/ Mexico: Tropical Storm ADRIAN (1E) 10/1600Z nr 10.3N 92.7W, moving NW at 06kt (JTWC) -Updated 10 May 2017 1840z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Adrian (1E)

Adrian is expected to gradually strengthen and reach
hurricane force Saturday while generally moving NW through
Saturday..
(NHC Miami FL 10/1540Z)

Scroll down for Hurricane Advisory

(Image: @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 01E (Adrian) Warning #04
Issued at 10/1600Z

01E_101200sair adrian 10ep0117 JTWC 10 Adrian

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 101600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 10.1N 92.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 92.5W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 10.8N 93.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 11.4N 94.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 11.9N 95.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 12.2N 96.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 12.7N 97.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z — 13.0N 97.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 13.0N 97.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
101600Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 92.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1920 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102200Z, 110400Z, 111000Z AND 111600Z.
//
NNNN

National Hurricane Center – Miami FL

143603_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind nhc 10

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 101441 CCA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Adrian Advisory Number 4…Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012017
1000 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017

Corrected for headline

…ADRIAN SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…10.4N 92.7W
ABOUT 435 MI…700 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Adrian was
located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Adrian is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a slow
northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the
next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NE Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 10 May, 2017 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ADRIAN is currently located near 9.5 N 92.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). ADRIAN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 93 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

TSR Adrian 10

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm3 NHC 10

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 101430

WTPZ21 KNHC 101430 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012017
1500 UTC WED MAY 10 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 92.7W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 0NE 0SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 92.7W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 92.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 10.8N 93.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…40NE 40SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 11.4N 94.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 11.9N 95.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT…20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT…60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 12.2N 96.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT…30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 12.7N 97.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT…40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 13.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 13.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101546
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1540 UTC Wed May 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…
Tropical Storm Adrian is centered near 10.4N 92.7W at 10/1500 UTC
or about 380 nm SSE of Salina Cruz Mexico moving NW at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is from 10N to 13N between 93W and
95W. Scattered moderate is elsewhere from 09N to 15N between 91W
and 97W. Adrian is expected to gradually strengthen and reach
hurricane force Saturday while generally moving NW through
Saturday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details.

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 10N89W then from
11N96W to low pres 1008 MB 10N103W to 07N106W to 05N116W. ITCZ
from 05N116W to 06N126W to 04N135W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N to 06N between 78W and 82W…from 02N to
07N between 87W and 94W…from 03N to 08N between 107W and
126W…and from 03N to 07N between 129W and 139W.

…DISCUSSION…

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO…
See the special features section for information on Tropical
Storm Adrian which is forecast to approach the offshore waters
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later in the week.

Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across most of the Gulf of
California. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds prevail N of 27N W of
the Baja California Peninsula. Moderate NW winds prevail across
the remainder of the forecast area NW of Manzanillo…except
occasional fresh NW winds in the vicinity of Cabo San Lucas.
Seas range from 5-7 ft in the offshore waters off Baja
California Norte…and 1-3 ft across the Gulf of California…
except 3-4 ft S of 24N. Seas in the 4-7 ft range are noted
elsewhere. Little change in marine conditions is expected through
the end of the week…with the exception of Tropical Storm Adrian
moving into the southern-most zone late Thursday into early
Thursday night. Otherwise…by Friday night into Saturday…the
pressure gradient off southern California will increase
supporting strong NW winds which will build NW swell to 8-12 ft
in offshore waters N of 25N.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR…
See the special features section for information on Tropical
Storm Adrian east of Central America.

Otherwise…mainly gentle to moderate onshore winds will prevail
during the daytime hours…with gentle to moderate offshore
winds during the overnight hours through the next several days.
Combined seas of 4-7 ft will also dominate the waters through the
remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA…
An area of high pressure with ridge axis extending from 29N147W
to 21N118W is expected to continue weakening and dissipate as a
cold front approaches the NW part of the discussion area. The
front will stall and dissipate from 30N132W to 27N140W by
Thursday night. High pressure will build in behind the front…
increasing trades and resultant seas slightly by the end of the
week. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail
elsewhere N of the ITCZ. Decaying combined seas of 6-8 ft are
across this same area.

$$
HUFFMAN

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Central Pacific/ Hawaii: Hurricane HILDA (10E) CAT4 09/0400Z POSITION nr 14.1N 144.7W, moving WNW 12 knots (JTWC) – Updated 09 Aug 2015 0835Z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Hilda (10E)

(CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…..HILDA REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII……CPHC

HAWAII BE AWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 36 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceCentral Pacific Hurricane Center

EP102015W

probEP102015_150809_0700_sata1

NWS radar Loop from South Shore Hawaii, HI (Long Range Base Reflectivity)

NWS radar Loop from South Shore Hawaii, HI
(Long Range Base Reflectivity)

NWS radar Loop from South Shore Hawaii, HI (Base Reflectivity)

NWS radar Loop from South Shore Hawaii, HI
(Base Reflectivity)

WTPA35 PHFO 090243
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
500 PM HST SAT AUG 08 2015

…HILDA REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.1N 144.5W
ABOUT 800 MI…1285 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1010 MI…1625 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…135 MPH…215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…950 MB…28.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 144.5 WEST. HILDA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H. HILDA IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH…215 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HILDA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT…FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING STARTING ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES…205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB…28.06 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 10E (Hilda) Warning #13
Issued at 09/0400Z

ep1015 9

WTPN31 PHNC 090400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 10E (HILDA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 10E (HILDA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
090000Z — NEAR 13.9N 144.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 144.0W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 14.6N 146.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 15.5N 147.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 16.5N 148.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 17.5N 149.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 19.2N 150.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 20.2N 151.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z — 21.0N 153.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
090400Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 144.7W.
HURRICANE 10E (HILDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 726 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091000Z, 091600Z, 092200Z AND 100400Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0235

WTPA25 PHFO 090235 RRA
TCMCP5

HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
0300 UTC SUN AUG 09 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 144.5W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT…….110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 150SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 144.5W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 144.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.6N 146.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT…GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT…115NE 90SE 80SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.5N 147.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT…GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT…125NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.5N 148.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT…125NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.5N 149.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 80SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.2N 150.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…105NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM

There may be other warnings here:

METAREA XII

FZHW60 PHFO 090340
OFFHFO

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR HAWAII
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
600 PM HST SAT AUG 8 2015

HAWAIIAN OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 40 NAUTICAL MILES OUT TO 240
NAUTICAL MILES INCLUDING THE PORTION OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT EAST OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT
OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN
TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PHZ105-091000-
600 PM HST SAT AUG 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR HAWAIIAN OFFSHORE WATERS…
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HURRICANE HILDA IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
SOUTHEASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS ON TUESDAY AS A HURRICANE THEN WEAK TO
A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

$$

PHZ180-091000-
HAWAIIAN OFFSHORE WATERS
600 PM HST SAT AUG 8 2015

…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY…
…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…

.TONIGHT…E TO NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT…E TO NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. W OF
155W…SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TUESDAY…E OF 154W…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE…E
WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…E OF 154W…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE…E WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.

$$

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081510
TWDEP

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific/Hawaii(US): Hurricane Guillermo 09E CAT2 012100Z 13.8N 140.1W, moving WNW 12 knots (NHC) – Published 010915 2156z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Guillermo (09E)

(CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…GUILLERMO MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather Service
National Hurricane Center

204754W5_NL_sm
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 012040
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015

…GUILLERMO MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…13.8N 140.1W
ABOUT 1070 MI…1725 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB…28.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 140.1 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with
higher gusts. Guillermo should begin to gradually weaken tonight.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future public advisories will be issued by
the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 5 PM HST, under
AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO, and on the web at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

$$
Forecaster Avila

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 012039

WTPZ24 KNHC 012039
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015
2100 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.1W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…….120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.1W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 139.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.3N 141.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 143.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.9N 145.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.7N 146.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.2N 149.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.7N 152.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 155.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 140.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII…UNDER AWIPS
HEADER HFOTCMCP4, WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO, AND ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/CPHC…BEGINNING AT 02/0300Z.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

There may be other warnings here:
METAREA XII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific/ Mexico/ Baja California: Hurricane ODILE 15E: 131800Z nr 16.6N 106.0W, moving NW at about 4.34 knots (NHC) – Published 130914 2030z (UTC)

Hurricane Odile

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

…ODILE GETTING STRONGER…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 131752
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

…ODILE GETTING STRONGER…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…16.6N 106.0W
ABOUT 200 MI…320 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI…810 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…977 MB…28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ODILE SINCE A HURRICANE WATCH OR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM PDT…1800 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST. ODILE HAS
RECENTLY MOVED LITTLE, BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/H…LATER TODAY. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A
FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CORE OF ODILE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT…AND PASS NEAR
OR SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH…140 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES…315 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB…28.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

SURF…SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

TSR logoNE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Sep, 2014 21:00 GMT

Hurricane ODILE (15E) currently located near 17.0 N 106.2 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Storm Tracker Map

Other Reports

 Odile becomes a hurricane– Extract

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:34 PM GMT on September 13, 2014
“In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Odile became the 11th hurricane of season Saturday morning, intensifying to a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds at 11 am EDT. Satellite loops show that Odile continues to grow more organized, but the hurricane’s heavy rains are remaining offshore of Mexico. Odile may be undergoing a period of rapid intensification that will take it to at least Category 2 strength; the 12Z Saturday run of the SHIPS model gave Odile a 55% chance of intensifying by 30 mph in 24 hours. While all of the reliable computer models show Odile will track northwest and remain offshore of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula, just a slight deviation to the east would bring tropical storm conditions to the coast. The 11 am EDT Saturday NHC Wind Probability Forecast gave Cabo San Lucas on the tip of the Baja Peninsula a 51% chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph , and a 6% chance of hurricane-force winds. As Odile passes southern Baja on Monday, the computer models grow more divergent in their forecast for the hurricane’s track, with several reliable models (the European and UKMET) showing landfall over the Central Baja Peninsula. The GFS model keeps the storm out to sea. Regardless of the track, tropical moisture flowing northwards from Odile’s circulation is likely to bring heavy rains to Northern Mexico and the Southwest U.S. by the middle of the week.” – Dr. Jeff Masters

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1455

WTPZ25 KNHC 131455 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
1500 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
. LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ODILE SINCE A HURRICANE WATCH OR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.0W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…….100NE 150SE 170SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.0W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 105.8W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.3N 106.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…110NE 160SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.9N 108.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT…120NE 160SE 160SW 100NW.

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1730

FZPN02 KWBC 131730
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 15.

.WARNINGS.

…STORM WARNING…
.POST-TROPICAL FENGSHEN 56N171W 961 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 55N174W TO 56N178W TO 60N179W. BETWEEN 120 AND 300
NM S QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. WITHIN 180 NM
N SEMICIRCLE…240 NM E…540 NM S…AND 420 NM SW QUADRANTS AND
ALSO WITHIN 240 NM SW OF THE FRONT…WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12
TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 45N TO 61N BETWEEN 156W AND
175E…WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL FENGSHEN 56N163W 978 MB. BETWEEN
300 NM SW AND 480 NM S QUADRANTS…EXCEPT WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 46N
TO 60N BETWEEN 152W AND 173W…WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20
FT…EXCEPT SEAS TO 10 FT N OF THE LOW CENTER.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL FENGSHEN 59N161W 992 MB. FROM
53N TO 58N BETWEEN 151W AND 165W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14
FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.FRONT EXTENDS FROM 60N150W TO 57N148W TO 45N150W. WITHIN 240 NM
NE OF THE FRONT S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 61N148W TO 57N144W TO 50N144W.
WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT S OF 57N SE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10
TO 12 FT. WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 57N WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 59N140W TO 54N139W. WITHIN 60 NM E
OF THE FRONT SE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 42N151E 997 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. FRONT EXTENDS FROM 44N160E
TO 40N160E. WITHIN 180 NM NE AND N OF THE FRONT E TO SE WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N160E 1002 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N177E 1007 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.LOW 33N149W 1009 MB DRIFTING SE. BETWEEN 180 AND 360 NM E
SEMICIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 31N147W 1008 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 46N146W TO 39N150W. IN AN AREA
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A LINE FROM 46N148W TO 38N155W N WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 36N147W 1007 MB. WITHIN 360 NM NW
QUADRANT N WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N179E 1009 MB WITH FRONT SW FROM LOW TO
36N163E. WITHIN 300 NM S QUADRANT AND 120 NM E OF THE FRONT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N167W 1013 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 42N170E TO 40N164E TO 36N160E.
WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE FRONT S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 180 NM E OF
A LINE FROM 52N150W TO 59N151W AND FROM 37N TO 44N W OF 169E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 41N TO 47N BETWEEN 164E AND
178E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 49N BETWEEN 176W AND
169E.

.HIGH 52N137W 1024 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 54N135W 1019 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 50N135W 1015 MB.

.HIGH 39N179E 1026 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 39N173W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 37N172W 1024 MB.

.FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT SEP 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN SEP 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON SEP 15.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 16.6N 106.0W 980 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 13
MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT
GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NE…150
NM SE…170 NM SW AND 90 NM NW QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 270 NM S AND 180 NM N SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 25 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 270 NM SW QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 09N TO
20N BETWEEN 99W AND 111W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 18.9N 108.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 160 NM S SEMICIRCLE…120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 330 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N AND
360 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER AREA FROM 08N TO 22N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 22.1N 111.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 140 NM NE…150 NM SE…130 NM SW AND 100 NM NW
QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 360 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 35 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NW AND
300 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. FROM
11N TO 17N BETWEEN 108W AND 116W SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO
14 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 100W AND 119W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 24.4N 114.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ODILE NEAR 26.5N 116.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ODILE NEAR 27.5N 117.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

UPDATED FOR LATEST ADVISORY

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E NEAR 16.0N 117.2W 1007 MB AT 1500
UTC SEP 13 MOVING ESE OR 110 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 45 KT. WITHIN 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 113W
AND 122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SIXTEEN-E NEAR 15.5N
114.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 270 NM
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM
10N TO 18N BETWEEN 112W AND 122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SIXTEEN-E NEAR 18.4N
110.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 90 NM
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS MERGED WITH AREA DESCRIBED
IN WARNING SECTION.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC SAT SEP 13…

.HURRICANE ODILE…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE
AND 300 NM SE SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 108W AND 117W.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N79W TO 10N89W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N93W
1007 MB TO 14N95W..RESUMES FROM T.D. SIXTEEN-E TO LOW PRES NEAR
10N132W 1011 MB TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM N AND 240 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM N AND 180 NM S
OF TROUGH W OF 131W.

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 13 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 14 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 15 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 12N144W 1008 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. TROUGH FROM 11N140W TO LOW
TO 09N149W TO 07N166W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 155W AND 160W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN
210 NM OF LOW AND TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 12N146W 1008 MB. TROUGH FROM 09N140W TO
LOW TO 08N154W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 11N149W 1008 MB. TROUGH FROM 09N140W TO
LOW TO 06N162W.

.LOW 15N172W 1008 MB MOVING W 10 KT. TROUGH FROM LOW TO 08N178E
TO 04N175E MOVING W SLOWLY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 180
NM OF LOW AND TROUGH W OF 178E…FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 171W
AND 174W…AND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 163W AND 171W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 14N179W 1007 MB. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
04N173E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. TROUGH FROM 10N174E TO
17N178E.

.FRONT FROM 30N146W TO 28N151W TO 28N155W TO 29N159W MOVING SE
SLOWLY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF FRONT E OF
155W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N144W TO 26N148W TO 25N157W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N142W TO 23N150W TO 23N155W.

.WEAKENING FRONT FROM 30N179E TO 28N172E NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED.

.TROUGH FROM 29N166W TO 28N169W TO 27N173W NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.RIDGE FROM 30N164E TO 28N160E NEARLY STATIONARY.

.RIDGE FROM 25N140W TO 23N146W TO 24N155W TO 26N167W MOVING S
SLOWLY.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 8 FT OR LESS OVER ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 167W AND 171W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 03N TO 12N W OF 173E…FROM 14N TO
27N W OF 174E…FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 147W AND 158W…WITHIN
60 NM OF 27N174W…AND ELSEWHERE S OF 10N BETWEEN 166W AND 180W.

$$

.HONOLULU HI.=

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/mexico/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific/ Mexico/ Baja California: Hurricane NORBERT 14E: 050600Z nr 22.3N 111.3W, moving NNW at about 6.95 knots (NHC) – Published 050914 0845z (UTC)

Hurricane NORBERT* 14E

…CENTER OF NORBERT PASSING WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

(*CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 050547
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
1100 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2014

…CENTER OF NORBERT PASSING WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS…
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT…0600 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…22.3N 111.3W
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 185 MI…300 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB…28.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM PDT…0600 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE
CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND MOVE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA
THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH…150 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM. SEVERAL MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATIONS NEAR CABO SAN
LUCAS HAVE REPORTED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB…28.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER OF NORBERT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO A PORTION
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY.

RAINFALL…NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRIDAY. LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep1414.gif

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
050000Z — NEAR 21.7N 111.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 111.0W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 22.9N 111.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 23.9N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 24.8N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z — 25.7N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 27.1N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 28.5N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 01 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 29.0N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 111.3W.
HURRICANE 14E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 94 NM SOUTHWEST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND 060400Z.//
NNNN

TSR logoNE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 5 Sep, 2014 3:00 GMT

Hurricane NORBERT (14E) currently located near 22.0 N 111.1 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for TS is 95% currently
La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Other

Hurricane Norbert Brushing Baja; 90L Emerges From the Coast of Africa – Extract

By: Jeff Masters , 12:42 PM GMT on September 04, 2014/ wunderground.com

“Hurricane Norbert took advantage of unusually warm 29.5C (85F) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and intensified into the Eastern Pacific’s tenth hurricane of the year on Wednesday evening. The Eastern Pacific has seen an unusually active hurricane season, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes so far. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year, with about 2/3 of that activity occurring by September 9. Satellite loops on Thursday morning showed that Category 1 Norbert had no eye but some very intense eyewall thunderstorms with cold cloud tops, and Mexican radar showed an outer band of Norbert bringing heavy rains to the tip of the Baja Peninsula and adjacent areas of Mainland Mexico. Norbert should be able to take advantage of warm SSTs, a moist atmosphere, and moderate wind shear over the next two days to maintain Category 1 hurricane strength, but the models all show the core of the hurricane remaining just offshore as it moves northwest parallel to the Baja Peninsula. Norbert is a small storm, and it’s hurricane-force winds are only expected to reach out about 25 miles from the center when it makes its closest pass by the tip of the Baja Peninsula on Thursday night and Friday morning. Hurricane force winds will likely stay offshore, but Baja can expect tropical storm-force winds from Norbert. In their 2 am PDT Thursday WInd Probability Advisory, NHC gave Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula a 63% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph, and a 0% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds of 74+ mph. Heavy rains of 3 – 5″ causing flash flooding will be the primary threat from Norbert to Baja.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color image of Tropical Storm Norbert at approximately 5 pm EDT September 3, 2014. At the time, Norbert had top winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

……Jeff Masters” / wunderground.com

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0239

WTPZ24 KNHC 050239
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
0300 UTC FRI SEP 05 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO
SAN EVARISTO…AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO
PUNTA ABREOJOS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.1W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…….120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.1W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 111.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.9N 111.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.9N 112.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.8N 113.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.7N 115.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT…100NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.1N 117.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 29.0N 118.8W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 111.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0530

FZPN02 KWBC 050530
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC FRI SEP 05 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SEP 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 07.

.WARNINGS.

…STORM WARNING…
.LOW 42N172E 988 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. WITHIN 240 NM NE…480 NM
SE…360 NM SW…AND 300 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS
8 TO 17 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N177E 976 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
540 NM NE…840 NM SE…480 NM SW…AND 420 NM NW QUADRANTS
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 20 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N180W 978 MB. WITHIN 480 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 600 NM E QUADRANT WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 21 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 35N TO 50N BETWEEN 125W AND 134W AREA OF N TO NE WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 40N TO 51N BETWEEN 125W AND 134W AREA OF
N TO NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.LOW 57N158W 1003 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. WITHIN 660 NM E AND 1020
NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N152W 1009 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
60N141W TO 54N148W TO 45N149W. WITHIN 240 NM SE AND E OF THE
FRONT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N141W 1007 MB. WITHIN 360 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 30N TO 33N W OF 165E
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 31N163E 1007 MB. FROM 30N TO 34N W OF 167E
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 46N TO 59N
BETWEEN 137W AND 162W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 45N TO 55N BETWEEN 146W AND
154W AND FROM 42N TO 48N BETWEEN 172W AND 179E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 44N TO 50N BETWEEN 164W AND
170W.

.HIGH 48N138W 1030 MB DRIFTING NE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 49N136W 1027 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N142W 1022 MB.

.HIGH 53N178W 1016 MB MOVING N 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 41N160W 1018 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 44N155W 1019 MB.

.FORECASTER BELL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC FRI SEP 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT SEP 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SUN SEP 07.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE NORBERT NEAR 22.0N 111.1W 970 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 05
MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT
GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM NE…100
NM SE…90 NM SW AND 80 NM NW QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE…210 NM NE QUADRANT AND 240 NM SE
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 300 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER AREA FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 105W AND 114W AND FROM
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 106W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
10 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NORBERT NEAR 23.9N 112.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITH SEAS
TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 240 NM SE
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM
16N TO 28N BETWEEN 105W AND 121W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORBERT NEAR 25.7N 115.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM W SEMICIRCLE…100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM
SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA E OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM
20N TO 29N BETWEEN 111W AND 121W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORBERT NEAR 27.1N 117.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW NORBERT NEAR 28.5N
118.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW NORBERT NEAR 29.0N
118.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.S OF LINE FROM 00N124W TO 02N119W TO 03.4S97W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0200 UTC FRI SEP 5…
.HURRICANE NORBERT…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM
OF CENTER.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 09N98W TO 10N105W…CONTINUES FROM
15N113W TO 12N120W TO 12N127W…THEN ITCZ 12N131W TO 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 75 NM N AND 60 NM S OF
AXIS E OF 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 111W AND 120W.

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SEP 05 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 06 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 07 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 29N143W 1012 MB MOVING SW SLOWLY. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN
120 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 28N146W 1014 MB. WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT
OR LESS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW WEAKENED TO A TROUGH FROM 29N147W TO
26N150W.

.LOW JUST W OF AREA NEAR 29N159W 1007 MB MOVING NE SLOWLY. WINDS
20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N W OF 165E. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS N OF 28N
W OF 162E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 30N161E 1006 MB. FRONT FROM LOW TO
28N160E. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N W OF 165E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST N OF AREA NEAR 31N163E 1007 MB. FRONT
FROM LOW TO 27N160E. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N W OF 165E.

.HIGH 25N170W 1016 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. RIDGES FROM HIGH TO
30N155W AND FROM HIGH TO 24N175E TO 22N160E NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 25N173W 1015 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REST OF FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF 27N W OF 164E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF A LINE FROM 30N170W TO
27N160E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT N OF 28N W OF 178W.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LESS OVER REST OF FORECAST AREA.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS S OF 22N W OF 170E.

.ITCZ FROM 09N140W TO 10N152W TO 07N170W TO 06N160E. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ.

$$
.FORECASTER BURKE. HONOLULU HI.=

 

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East Pacific: Tropical Depression Karina 11E: 252100Z near 17.2N 127.6W, moving E at about 5.2 knots(NHC) – Updated 250814 2102z (UTC)

Tropical Depression KARINA 11E

…KARINA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION……NHC

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Global Sea Surface Temp (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 252036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

…KARINA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.2N 127.6W
ABOUT 1215 MI…1950 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 127.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/H. KARINA
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT A SLOWER RATE OF FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep1114.gif

WTPN31 PHNC 251600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 051
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251200Z — NEAR 17.2N 128.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 128.2W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 16.8N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 16.4N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 15.7N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
251600Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 127.9W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 985 NM
WEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND 261600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Other

Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog

 

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1433

WTPZ21 KNHC 252035
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 127.6W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 127.6W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 127.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.0N 127.2W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.3N 126.2W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 127.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1730

FZPN02 KWBC 251730
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC AUG 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 27.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 51N170E 1008 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. FROM 43N TO 53N BETWEEN
179W AND 165E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N174W 1008 MB. FROM 48N TO 53N BETWEEN
165W AND 180W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N167W 1007 MB. FROM 49N TO 54N BETWEEN
151W AND 174W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW W OF AREA 44N155E 1003 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. FROM 36N TO 43N
BETWEEN 160E AND 165E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 46N157E 996 MB. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 720 NM SE AND 540 NE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N158E 995 MB. FROM 38N TO 49N BETWEEN
172E AND 164E…AND OVER FORECAST WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM
48N160E TO 52N170E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N162E 992 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 300 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 39N TO 50N W OF 178E…AND N OF 50N W OF 171E
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 59N156W 1000 MB MOVING E 15 KT. FROM 49N TO 60N BETWEEN
145W AND 172W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N144W 1007 MB. FROM 52N TO 58N BETWEEN
140W AND 156W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N142W 1014 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.LOW 46N154W 1020 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. FROM 41N TO 46N BETWEEN
152W AND 158W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N142W 1017 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N130W 1017 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.FROM 38N TO 50N BETWEEN 124W AND 136W AREA OF N TO NW WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 39N TO 45N BETWEEN 124W AND 132W AREA OF
N TO NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 43N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W WINDS
LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.FROM 30N TO 35N BETWEEN 129W AND 140W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 36N BETWEEN 130W AND 145W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 135W AND 142W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 45N TO 51N
BETWEEN 134W AND 139W…AND FROM 41N TO 52N BETWEEN 160E AND
178W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 120 NM OF 48N138W…FROM 49N
TO 54N BETWEEN 169W AND 175E…AND FROM 39N TO 49N W OF 172E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 36N TO 52N BETWEEN 172W AND
168E…AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 48N162E.

.HIGH 42N144W 1028 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N143W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N141W 1023 MB.

.HIGH 44N173W 1029 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 44N164W 1029 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 43N162W 1029 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 37N171W 1026 MB.

.FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON AUG 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE AUG 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED AUG 27.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 17.9N 114.8W 932 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 25
MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT
GUSTS 150 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…240 NM NE QUADRANT AND 270 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 540 NM NE QUADRANT…390 NM SE
QUADRANT…300 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 330 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 44 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 25N BETWEEN 105W 120W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER N OF 07N BETWEEN 105W AND
120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 20.1N 118.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 210 NM E SEMICIRCLE…150 NM SW QUADRANT AND 160 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 540 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND
480 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 37 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 22.2N 123.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT…170 NM SE QUADRANT…110 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 540 NM FROM CENTER WITH SEAS TO 26 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MARIE NEAR 24.5N 128.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL MARIE NEAR 28.0N 132.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARIE NEAR 30.5N
133.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA NEAR 17.1N 128.0W 1004 MB AT 1500
UTC AUG 25 MOVING ELSE OR 110 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 125W
AND 132W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 16.4N
126.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 120 NM
SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 15.7N
125.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. WITHIN 120 NM
SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

.LOW NEAR 25N130W 1004 MB…REMNANT OF LOWELL. WITHIN 240 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF
22N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 23N135W 1005 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N
W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 26N138W 1007 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 180 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 17N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC MON AUG 25…

.HURRICANE MARIE…NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE
AND 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 13N
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

.TROPICAL STORM KARINA….SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM SW
QUADRANT.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 10N90W TO 09N100W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS
PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 90W AND
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC AUG 25 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 26 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 27 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW NEAR 14N142W 1009 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. ASSOCIATED TSTMS
INCLUDED WITH MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.LOW NEAR 10N175W 1008 MB MOVING W 15 KT. ASSOCIATED TSTMS
INCLUDED WITH MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 11N179W 1008 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.MONSOON TROUGH FROM 14N142W TO 11N147W TO 11N156W AND ALSO FROM
09N161W TO 09N169W TO 10N175W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH E OF 147W AND W OF
169W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF TROUGH.

.ITCZ FROM 08N179W TO 06N175E TO 08N166E TO 06N160E. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM OF ITCZ.

$$
.FORECASTER A BEDAL. HONOLULU HI.=

 

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East Pacific/ Mexico: Hurricane MARIE 13E CAT4: 251600Z near 18.0N 115.0W, moving NW at 10 knots (JTWC) – Updated 250814 1637z (UTC)

Hurricane Marie 13E

(CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…EYE OF MARIE VERY NEAR CLARION ISLAND…
…LARGE SWELLS MOVING UP THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA…

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Global Sea Surface Temp (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

000

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 251433
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

…EYE OF MARIE VERY NEAR CLARION ISLAND…
…LARGE SWELLS MOVING UP THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.9N 114.8W
ABOUT 255 MI…415 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 470 MI…755 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…145 MPH…230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…932 MB…27.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH…230 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MARIE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS…BUT MARIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES…500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932 MB…27.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO…THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA…AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TODAY…AND WILL REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS…AS WELL AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. FOR MORE
INFORMATION…PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep1314.gif

 

 

WTPN33 PHNC 251600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 13E (MARIE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 13E (MARIE) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251200Z — NEAR 17.6N 114.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 114.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 18.9N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 20.1N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 21.2N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 22.2N 123.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 24.5N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z — 28.0N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 30.5N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
251600Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 115.0W.
HURRICANE 13E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND
261600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1433

WTPZ23 KNHC 251433
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT……. 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT…….100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT…….240NE 270SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 390SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT…GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT…100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT…240NE 240SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.1N 118.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT… 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT…210NE 210SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.2N 120.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT… 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT…190NE 190SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.2N 123.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT… 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT…180NE 170SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.5N 128.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 90SE 50SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.0N 132.0W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.5N 133.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 114.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1130

FZPN02 KWBC 251130
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 27.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 50N167E 1006 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WITHIN 180 NM N AND 420 NM
SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N177W 1011 MB. WITHIN 420 NM SW AND 360
NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N171W 1014 MB. FROM 49N TO 52N BETWEEN
157W AND 176W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA NEAR 46N157E 998 MB. WITHIN 600
NM SE AND E QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N160E 993 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 420 NM NE AND 660 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS
8 TO 12 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 60N165W 1000 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 300 NM SW AND 540
NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED INLAND AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.FROM 37N TO 52N BETWEEN 124W AND 136W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 45N BETWEEN 124W AND 133W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 43N BETWEEN 124W AND 129W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.FROM 30N TO 37N BETWEEN 126W AND 142W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 37N BETWEEN 145W AND 131W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 150W AND 133W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.

.LOW 45N157W 1020 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 180 NM OF
LOW…FROM 48N TO 52N BETWEEN 133W AND 141W…AND WITHIN 180 NM
NW OF A LINE FROM 33N174E TO 38N180W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N144W 1017 MB. WITHIN 180 NM S
SEMICIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N133W 1015 MB. CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 47N TO 57N
BETWEEN 134W AND 146W AND FROM 43N TO 51N BETWEEN 163E AND 173E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 52N W OF 175W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 36N TO 52N BETWEEN 161E AND
179E.

.HIGH 42N144W 1029 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 NOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N142W 1024 MB.

.HIGH 44N176E 1030 MB MOVING E 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 44N168W 1029 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 43N162W 1029 MB.

.FORECASTER MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC MON AUG 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE AUG 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED AUG 27.

...HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 17.3N 113.9W 932 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG 25
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT
GUSTS 150 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…270 NM SE QUADRANT AND 240 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 540 NM NE QUADRANT…390 NM SE QUADRANT 300
NM SW QUADRANT…AND 330 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 48 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM E AND 510 NM S QUADRANTS…AND 300 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA
FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 102W AND 120W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX
OF SWELL. S OF 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 19.6N 117.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE…220 NM NE QUADRANT AND 240 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 510 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 46 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM E AND 540 NM S
QUADRANTS…AND 300 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN 103W AND 125W…
INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 26N…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. S OF 10N BETWEEN 105W
AND 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MERGING SW AND
NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 22.0N 121.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE…120 NM SW QUADRANT…150 NM NW.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 540 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 360 NM SW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 40 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM OF
CENTER… EXCEPT 240 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 18N E OF 130W…INCLUDING THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA S OF 25N…AND FROM 05N TO 18N BETWEEN 103W AND
125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF
SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MARIE NEAR 24.7N 126.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARIE NEAR 27.8N
130.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARIE NEAR 30.2N
132.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 17.2N 128.4W 1003 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG
25 MOVING ESE OR 110 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NE QUADRANT
90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SW QUADRANT AND 30 NM QUADRANT. SEAS
12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 90 NM SE
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N
TO 20N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA NEAR 17.1N 127.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS
12 FT OR GREATER…ELSEWHERE AND REMAINDER OF AREA.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 16.7N
127.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 13 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 22N
BETWEEN 125W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A
BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 15.6N
124.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 25 KT. WITHIN 150 NM
SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM
07N TO 18N W OF 123W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A
BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW NEAR 26N130W 1004 MB…REMNANT OF LOWELL. WITHIN 240 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF
20N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 26N133W 1005 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 22N
W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 28N137W 1007 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 150 NM N QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 18N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC MON AUG 25…

.HURRICANE MARIE…NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT
200 NM SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 360 NM SE AND 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLES.

.TROPICAL STORM KARINA….NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N95W TO 08N103W TO
10N103W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 88W.

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 25 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 26 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 27 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW NEAR 14N143W 1009 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. ASSOCIATED TSTMS
INCLUDED WITH MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.MONSOON TROUGH FROM 14N143W TO 11N149W TO 11N158W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF
150W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 07N E OF
160W.

.ITCZ FROM 10N167W TO 08N177W TO 10N172E TO 07N160E. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM OF ITCZ. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 01N W OF 160W.

$$
.FORECASTER A BEDAL. HONOLULU HI.=

 

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East Pacific/Mexico: Hurricane LOWELL 12E: 211500Z near 20.0N 122.1W , moving NW at 3 knots(NHC) – Updated 210814 1633z (UTC)

Hurricane LOWELL 12E

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…LOWELL BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT….NHC

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Global Sea Surface Temp (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 211432
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

…LOWELL BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.0N 122.1W
ABOUT 810 MI…1300 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…982 MB…29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 122.1 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH…6 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST TODAY…
BUT SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES…295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB…29.00 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep1214.gif

 

 

WTPN32 PHNC 211600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 015
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 12E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
211200Z — NEAR 19.7N 122.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 122.0W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 20.7N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 21.7N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 22.8N 125.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 23.8N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 25.5N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 27.3N 132.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 28.5N 135.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
211600Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 122.3W.
HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 626 NM WEST OF SOCORRO
ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212200Z, 220400Z, 221000Z AND 221600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

 

Other

EASTERN PACIFIC – WestPacWx
Large Lowell‘s circulation also has a large center as shown by the satellite image.No significant changes to previous days’ expectations of a steering interaction between Lowell and smaller Karina.

An increase in rainfall is expected in Arizona tomorrow; that is primarily due to the upper low which has been over SoCal, though it could tap a bit of Lowell’s moisture.

Speaking of wiggy model runs, there have been some showing the system that was near Panama, and is likely to eventually become a tropical storm, maintaining some strength all the way up to a position not far off the coast of northern California.  That’s a long way off and we can cross that bridge if we come to it …

(MORE: Glossary of Tropical Terms | New NHC Storm Surge Maps)

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

 

 

 METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1431 

WTPZ22 KNHC 211431
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
1500 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 122.1W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT……. 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…….160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 280SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 122.1W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 122.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 122.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.7N 124.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.8N 125.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.8N 127.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.5N 129.5W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.3N 132.3W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 28.5N 135.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 122.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1730

FZPN02 KWBC 211149 CCA
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII…CORRECTION PART 3
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 23.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 40N160E 1004 MB MOVING E 25 KT. WITHIN 300 NM E SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 38N168E 1002 MB. WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 39N178E 999 MB. WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW WINDS
25 TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 32N TO 43N W OF 178W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N169W 1002 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 660
NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 51N135W 1013 MB MOVING SE 25 KT. WITHIN 360 NM W QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND AND CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

.LOW 38N167W 1013 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WITHIN 240 NM E QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N162W 1014 MB. WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.LOW 53N174E 1002 MB MOVING SE 05 KT. WITHIN 480 NM N AND 600 NM
SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N176E 1005 MB. BETWEEN 480 NM AND 660 NM
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N175W 1002 MB. WITHIN 240 NM OF LOW
EXCEPT WITHIN 360 NM N QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT.

.FROM 36N TO 42N BETWEEN 124W AND 127W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 35N TO 42N BETWEEN 124W AND 127W N TO NW
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 37N TO 43N BETWEEN 123W AND 129W N TO NW
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.FROM 32N TO 36N BETWEEN 133W AND 129W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 128W AND 141W NE WINDS
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 127W AND 148W E TO NE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 40N TO 47N
BETWEEN 161W AND 155W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 180 NM SE OF A LINE FROM
52N156W TO 42N163W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 38N TO 48N BETWEEN 174W AND
152W.

.HIGH 40N143W 1027 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N146W 1031 MB.

.HIGH 51N152W 1025 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 53N143W 1028 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 62N167W 1023 MB MOVING N 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 64N166W 1024 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 63N173W 1022 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 48N140W 1029 MB.

.FORECASTER MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC THU AUG 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI AUG 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT AUG 23.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 15.6N 136.2W 1001 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG
21 MOVING ESE OR 110 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 40 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF
CENTER WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM N AND 240 NM
S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF
AREA FROM 11N TO 20N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 15.1N 135.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM
OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 240 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 21N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 16.5N 133.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS…30 NM NW QUADRANT AND
50 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 90 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
150 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 210 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 08N TO 23N W OF 130W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 18.5N 130.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 22.5N
128.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 28.5N
131.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 19.7N 121.9W 985 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG
21 MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 160 NM OF CENTER.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 280 NM W SEMICIRCLE…300 NM NE
QUADRANT AND 390 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 300 NM N AND 360 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N TO 26N BETWEEN 111W AND
130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 21.3N 123.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 420 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N
TO 28N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 23.4N 126.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 140 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240
NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF
CENTER…EXCEPT 360 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 08N TO 30N BETWEEN 112W AND 130W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL LOWELL NEAR 25.3N 129.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LOWELL NEAR 27.0N
131.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LOWELL NEAR 28.3N
134.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N94.5W 1007 MB. FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W
AND 93W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
12N98W 1006 MB. FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
14N103W 1003 MB. WITHIN 300 NM NW AND 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 104W
AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.S OF 03S W OF 100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED
SE AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 131W AND 137W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 24N W OF 130W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 9 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC THU AUG 21…

.TROPICAL STORM KARINA…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM S OF CENTER.

.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL….NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE…240 NM SE AND 300 NM SW QUADRANTS.

.LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N94.5W 1007 MB…SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90
NM OF CENTER.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N94.5W TO
09N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N AND
60 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 110W.

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI…CORRECTION
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 21 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 22 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 23 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 07N161W 1011 MB MOVING NW SLOWLY. TROUGH FROM 06N170E TO
05N171W TO LOW NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS
WITHIN 150 NM OF LOW AND TROUGH…AND FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN
159W AND 163W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. TROUGH FROM 06N169W TO
12N163W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 04N170W TO 11N166W.

.LOW 14N146W 1010 MB MOVING SW SLOWLY. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
09N159W NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM
OF LOW AND TROUGH…AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 156W AND 159W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 13N147W 1009 MB. TROUGH FROM 08N156W TO
11N152W TO LOW.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 13N148W 1009 MB. TROUGH FROM 08N160W TO
LOW.

.WEAKENING FRONT FROM 30N179E TO 28N174E TO 27N169E NEARLY
STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N178E TO 28N174E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED.

.TROUGH FROM 17N154W TO 20N154W TO 21N153W MOVING W 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 28N162E 1015 MB MOVING SE SLOWLY. RIDGE FROM 29N160E TO
HIGH TO 25N174E TO 30N165W NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 26N165W 1014 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 12N TO 17N E OF 149W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS SUBSIDED TO 8 FT OR LESS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT N OF 25N E OF 145W.

.OTHERWISE SEAS 8 FT OR LESS REST OF FORECAST AREA.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS S OF A LINE FROM 27N160E TO 21N166E…S
OF 13N BETWEEN 166E AND 172E…AND FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 172E
AND 179E.

$$

.HONOLULU HI.=

 

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Central Pacific/ HAWAII: Tropical Storm ISELLE 09E 081000Z near 19.0N 155.3W, moving W at 09 knots. 43nm from Hilo (JTWC) – Updated 080814 1100z (UTC)

Tropical Storm ISELLE 09E

…ISELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…CONTINUES CHURNING TOWARD
THE BIG ISLAND…NWS CHC

TROPICAL STORM 09E (ISELLE) WARNING NR 033
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 09E

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI…
AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

National Weather ServiceCentral Pacific Hurricane Center

5 Day Track for ISELLE

WTPA33 PHFO 080847
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
1100 PM HST THU AUG 07 2014

…ISELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…CONTINUES CHURNING TOWARD
THE BIG ISLAND…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…19.0N 155.1W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM S OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 240 MI…390 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.39 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI…
AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISELLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 155.1 WEST. ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY…WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB…29.39 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON THE BIG
ISLAND…AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT…AND FOR OAHU ON
FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR KAUAI COUNTY
LATER FRIDAY.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS TO 12 INCHES…ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF ISELLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AS WELL AS
ROCK AND MUD SLIDES.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY ISELLE IS PRODUCING VERY LARGE AND
DAMAGING SURF…MAINLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE
BIG ISLAND. THIS DAMAGING SURF WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

BIG ISLAND WINDWARD AND KAU…1 TO 2 FT

SURGE RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES…100 AM HST AND 300 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE LOCAL STATEMENT

WFO Honolulu

Hawaii RSS FeedsHI RSS Feeds

At 11:00 PM HST, the center of
Tropical Storm Iselle
was located at 19.0N 155.1W.
50 miles S of Hilo
75 miles SE of Kailua-Kona
40 miles E of South Point
155 miles SSE of Kahului
200 miles SE of Kaunakakai
170 miles SE of Lanai City
240 miles SE of Honolulu
335 miles SE of Lihue
380 miles ESE of Niihau
At 11:00 PM HST, the center of
Hurricane Julio
was located at 17.8N 140.4W.
965 miles E of Hilo
1030 miles E of Kailua-Kona
1005 miles E of South Point
1065 miles ESE of Kahului
1115 miles ESE of Kaunakakai
1095 miles ESE of Lanai City
1160 miles ESE of Honolulu
1255 miles ESE of Lihue
1310 miles ESE of Niihau
1990 miles SW of Las Vegas NV

 

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)(US Military)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0914.gif

 

 

WTPN32 PHNC 081000

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ISELLE) WARNING NR 033
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 09E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
080600Z — NEAR 18.9N 154.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 154.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 19.2N 157.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 19.8N 159.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 20.2N 162.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 20.8N 164.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 22.2N 169.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 24.0N 175.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 25.7N 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
081000Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 155.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 09E (ISELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 62 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 081600Z, 082200Z, 090400Z AND 091000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E
(JULIO) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Hawaii Red Cross

Honolulu, Hawaii

Disaster Preparedness

“In Hawaii due to our isolation, we encourage all families to be prepared for 7 days instead of 72 hours. It will take time following a disaster for a logistics bridge to be built to Hawaii if our harbors and airports are affected by a major disaster and we may be relying on our own resources longer than other places within the United States. The following information is provided to help you better develop your own disaster plan and improve your family, business and community’s resiliency.” – Hawaii Red Cross

redcross.org/hawaii

http://www.redcross.org/find-help

MARITIME/SHIPPING

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE LOCAL STATEMENT

 

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0850

WTPA24 PHFO 080850 RRB
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT…100NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 25.7N 159.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 27.2N 164.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 140.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

..
FORECASTER POWELL

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0530

FZPN02 KWBC 080530
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC FRI AUG 08 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC AUG 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC AUG 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC AUG 10.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 59N174W 985 MB MOVING SE 15 KT. WITHIN 240 NM N AND 360 NM
SW QUADRANTS AND 300 NM SE OF FRONT FROM 56N153W TO 50N163W TO
46N174W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300
NM N QUADRANT AND 360 NM SE OF FRONT AND FROM 52N TO 58N W OF
168W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N164W 989 MB. BETWEEN 300 NM AND 660 NM
W QUADRANT AND BETWEEN 300 NM AND 720 NM S QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N157W 993 MB. WITHIN 480 NM S AND 600 NM
W QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 60N148W TO 52N148W TO
42N164W. WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO
15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 56N150W 990 MB. WITHIN 420 NM NE
QUADRANT AND 360 NM SE OF FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 56N140W TO
47N147W TO 39N156W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 34N TO 44N BETWEEN 123W AND 127W AREA OF N TO NW WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 34N TO 45N BETWEEN 123W AND 128W AREA OF
N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 33N TO 44N BETWEEN 123W AND 127W N TO NW
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NW OF AREA 55N167E 997 MB. OVER FORECAST
WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 42N166E TO 49N174E TO 56N175E AREA OF W
TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 179W AND 164E WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM OVER FORECAST
WATERS NW AND W OF A LINE FROM 38N160E TO 46N161W TO 63N166W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 44N TO 49N BETWEEN 149W AND
160W AND W OF A LINE FROM 39N164E TO 50N168E TO 58N178E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 42N TO 57N BETWEEN 137W AND
146W AND W OF A LINE FROM 40N164E TO 44N172E TO 57N177E.

.HIGH 35N141W 1026 MB MOVING E 05 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N138W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.HIGH 46N132W 1024 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.HIGH 38N164W 1025 MB MOVING S 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N163W 1022 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 43N144W 1026 MB MOVING E 20 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 38N172E 1026 MB MOVING NW 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 40N167E 1027 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N172E 1024 MB.

.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC FRI AUG 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT AUG 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SUN AUG 10.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 17.4N 139.1W 966 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 08
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT
GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM N
SEMICIRCLE…90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 250 NM N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO
36 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM N AND 180 S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 FT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 13N
TO 24N W OF 133W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 18.5N 144.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. 12 FT SEAS W OF AREA. FROM
16N TO 24N W OF 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 20.6N 149.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. CONDITIONS
W OF AREA.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 22.9N 154.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JULIO NEAR 24.2N 159.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JULIO NEAR 25.0N 163.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0300 UTC FRI AUG 8…

.HURRICANE JULIO…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 100 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO
19N W OF 136W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N83W TO 10N92W. ITCZ FROM 12N120W TO
06N134W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N
TO 09N E OF 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 124W
AND 132W.

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC AUG 08 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC AUG 09 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC AUG 10 2014.

.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE ISELLE NEAR 19.0N 153.1W MOVING W 13 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 160 NM NE…90 NM SE…20 NM SW…120 NM NW QUADRANTS.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM S
SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM ELSEWHERE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ISELLE NEAR 19.8N 158.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE…10 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM
S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM ELSEWHERE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE NEAR 20.6N 163.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 40 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 25 NM ELSEWHERE. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 45 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE NEAR 21.6N 167.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ISELLE NEAR 23.5N
173.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ISELLE NEAR 26.4N
179.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

.SEE WTPA23 PHFO BULLETIN ISSUED BY CPHC FOR LATEST INFORMATION.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 17.8N 141.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NE…90 NM SE…60 NM SW…100 NM NW QUADRANT.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM S
SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 360 NM N AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLES.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 18.5N 144.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NE…NW AND SE QUADRANTS…AND WITHIN 60 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 280 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
150 NM S SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 330 NM N AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLES.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 20.6N 149.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND SE QUADRANT…AND WITHIN 60 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 280 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 22.9N 154.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR
GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JULIO NEAR 24.2N 159.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JULIO NEAR 25.0N 163.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.

.SEE WTPN32 PGTW BULLETIN ISSUED BY JTWC FOR LATEST INFORMATION.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TYPHOON GENEVIEVE NEAR 16.2N 176.7E MOVING NW 9 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT GUSTS 170 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 130 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 115 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT
OR MORE WITHIN 330 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 240
NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 240 NM ELSEWHERE. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TYPHOON GENEVIEVE NEAR 19.9N 175.4E. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT GUSTS 160 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 140 NM NE…130 NM SE…125 NM SW…135 NM NW. SEAS 12 FT
OR MORE WITHIN 300 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 220 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 400 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 240
NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 240 NM ELSEWHERE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TYPHOON GENEVIEVE NEAR 25.6N 174.3E. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 140 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR MORE WITHIN 240 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 300 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 220 NM ELSEWHERE.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TYPHOON GENEVIEVE NEAR 31.0N 169.7E. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR
GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TYPHOON GENEVIEVE MOVED N OF FORECAST AREA
NEAR 33.6N 165.7E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.

.SEE WTPN32 PGTW BULLETIN ISSUED BY JTWC FOR LATEST INFORMATION.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 05N161E 1006 MB MOVING WNW 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED W OF FORECAST AREA.

.TROUGH FROM 09N160E TO 08N169E TO 13N175E NEARLY STATIONARY.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH W OF 163E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 09N160E TO 10N170E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.TROUGH FROM 30N175W TO 26N177E MOVING W SLOWLY. ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN 100 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N178E TO 26N175E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.TROUGH FROM 15N140W TO 09N147W NEARLY STATIONARY AND
DISSIPATING.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.RIDGE FROM 10N173W TO 00N173E MOVING W SLOWLY.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 8 FT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 173W
AND 179E. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 164E
AND 179E.

$$
.HONOLULU HI=

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East Pacific: HURRICANE 09E ISELLE 041000Z near 16.0N 135.8W, moving W at 08 knots (JTWC) heading toward Hawaii – Updated 040814 1155z (UTC)

TROPICAL STORM 09E ISELLE UPDATED

http://t.co/vptjVLiVOq

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

East Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (Invest #91E) (JTWC) 290513 2235z

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) E Pacific IR Sat (Click image for source)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TCFA Graphic (Invest 91E) (Click image for source)

 

 

WTPN21 PHNC 292200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 114.0W TO 13.9N 107.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 291800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7N 112.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.3N
113.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 112.8W, APPROXIMATELY 370NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 291606Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
FULLY EXPOSED YET TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-
30 KNOTS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003 MB. DUE TO THE TIGHTLY
WRAPPED NATURE OF THE LLCC AND THE DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTED BY THE
DYNAMIC MODELS, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302200Z.//
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