South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Victor 07P: 152100Z POSITION nr 14.6S 166.4W, moving W at 02 knots (JTWC) – Published 15 Jan 2016 2145Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Victor 07P

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 20 FEET

sp201607_5day 15

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast
sp201607_sat_anim 15
Image: @wunderground Satellite

logo
RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre 

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone VICTOR

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 72 issued 1924 UTC Friday 15 January 2016 

65660 15


Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone VICTOR

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 6 pm January 15 2 14.7S 166.3W 110
+6hr 12 am January 16 2 14.8S 166.5W 140
+12hr 6 am January 16 2 15.0S 166.6W 165
+18hr 12 pm January 16 2 15.2S 166.7W 195
+24hr 6 pm January 16 3 15.6S 166.7W 220
+36hr 6 am January 17 3 16.6S 166.8W 280
+48hr 6 pm January 17 3 17.8S 166.6W 345
+60hr 6 am January 18 3 18.9S 166.2W 430
+72hr 6 pm January 18 3 19.9S 165.8W 520

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa


The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 152005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.7S 166.8W AT 151800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,

WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.95 WRAP YEILDS DT=3.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 15.0S 166.6W MOV WSW AT 02KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 15.6S 166.7W MOV SSW AT 02KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 16.6S 166.8W MOV SSW AT 03KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 17.8S 166.6W MOV S AT 04KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON VICTOR WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 160200 UTC.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 07P (Victor) Warning #03
Issued at 15/2100Z

sh0716 15

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151800Z — NEAR 14.6S 166.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 166.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z — 14.8S 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 15.1S 166.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 15.7S 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 16.7S 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z — 19.4S 166.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 20.6S 166.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 21.2S 167.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 166.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 256 NM EAST OF
PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONSOLIDATION OF
BANDING, DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN ALL QUADRANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC). DVORAK ESTIMATES AND RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA
INDICATE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ARE FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING TC 07P THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT (OHC) VALUES WILL REMAIN POSITIVE NORTH OF 20 DEGREES SOUTH
AND WILL ENHANCEMENT THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL POINT
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE LLCC
AND IS CREATING AMPLE OUTFLOW FOR THE SYSTEM. THIS DIVERGENT PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE 96 TO 120 TIMEFRAME. AS SSTS AND OHC DECREASE
AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WEAKENS, BEYOND TAU 96, THE OVERALL INTENSITY
WILL DECREASE, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL
CYCLONE. TC 07P HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, CAUSING A SOUTHWARD TURN WITH MARGINAL
ACCELERATION THROUGH TAU 72. A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST IS EXPECTED AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF
TC VICTOR. MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
LEADING TO IMPROVED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE TRACK HAS
BEEN KEPT SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CONSENSUS AS IT HAS BEEN SLOWLY
SHIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND
162100Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

STORM WARNING 072 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 151938 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.7 SOUTH 166.8 WEST AT 151800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 14.7S 166.8W AT 151800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
60 KNOTS BY 160000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.0S 166.6W AT 160600 UTC
AND NEAR 15.6S 166.7W AT 161800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 070.

METAREA14 / STORM_WARNING_NORTH_25S / 2100

WTPS11 NFFN 152100
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
JAN 152005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.7S 166.8W AT 151800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,

WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.95 WRAP YEILDS DT=3.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 15.0S 166.6W MOV WSW AT 02KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 15.6S 166.7W MOV SSW AT 02KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 16.6S 166.8W MOV SSW AT 03KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 17.8S 166.6W MOV S AT 04KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON VICTOR WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 160200 UTC.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean: Severe Tropical Cyclone (CAT3 SS) ULA 06P: 102100Z POSITION nr 22.6S 170, moving SSW 8 knots (JTWC) – Updated 10 Jan 2016 2155z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone ULA (06P)

(= CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28 FEET

sp201606_5day 10m

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

 

Image: @wunderground Satellite NOT AVAILABLE

logo

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone ULA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 48 issued 1931 UTC Sunday 10 January 2016

65660 10

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Severe Tropical Cyclone ULA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 6 pm January 10 4 22.0S 170.1E 35
+6hr 12 am January 11 4 23.0S 169.9E 65
+12hr 6 am January 11 3 24.1S 170.1E 95
+18hr 12 pm January 11 3 25.3S 170.4E 120
+24hr 6 pm January 11 3 26.5S 171.1E 150
+36hr 6 am January 12 3 29.0S 173.1E 210
+48hr 6 pm January 12 2 31.2S 175.9E 270
+60hr 6 am January 13 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+72hr 6 pm January 13 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A46 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 101954 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 945HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.0S 170.1E AT 101800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
EAST SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
WEST SEMICIRCLE.

EYE CLOUD FILLED BUT STILL DISCERNIBLE. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTENT WITH SLIGHT WARMING IN CLOUD TOPS PAST 6 HOURS.
ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. ULA IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EYE PATTERN WITH MG EYE IN LG SURROUND DT=5.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT
BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T5.0/6.0/W0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 24.1S 170.1E MOV S AT 12KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 26.5S 171.1E MOV SSE AT 12KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
110200 UTC.

 

vms_banner_bg_14

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 14 for Anietyum Island, TAFEA province.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 14 issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and
Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 6:08am VUT Monday 11 January 2016 for
Anietyum Island, TAFEA province.

At 5:00am local time, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula (941 hPa) Category 4 was
located at 22.0 degrees South 170.0 degrees East. The Severe Tropical Cyclone
is positioned at the top right corner of square letter I, number 12 (I,12)
of the Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map. This is about 200 KM
south of Aneityum and 285 KM south southeast of Tanna.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula has moved in a south southwest direction at
14 KM/HR in the past 3 hours.

Winds close to the center are estimated at 165 KM/HR.
Expected position of the system in the next 6 hours will be near
23.7 degrees South 170.1 degrees East.

Strong force winds of 45 to 55 KM/HR will continue to affect
Anietyum island today and slowly decreasing as Tropical cyclone
Ula continues a southward movement away from Vanuatu Area.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time Position Intensity
+06 hours (11am, 11 Jan) 22.8S, 169.8E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5pm, 11 Jan) 23.7S, 170.1E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11pm, 11 Jan) 24.6S, 170.3E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5am, 12 Jan) 25.7S, 171.0E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5pm, 12 Jan) 27.6S, 172.6E 80 KTS (150 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5am, 13 Jan) 29.1S, 174.7E 80 KTS (150 KM/HR)

Seas will remain rough to very rough over southern waters with
heavy swells expected.

The Vanuatu National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) has given ALL CLEAR
for TAFEA province.

This will be the final information on Severe Tropical Cyclone ULA unless the
systems turns back.

This warning is also available on VMGD’s website http://www.meteo.gov.vu
Bislama Translation

Tropikol Saeklon Woning Namba 14 lo Sevea Tropikol Saeklon Ula we i kamaot
lo Vanuatu Meteorology mo Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila lo
6:08am VUT Monday 11 January 2016.

Lo 5:00am lokal taem, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula (941 hPa) Category 4 hemi
stap lo 22.0 degrees South 170.0 degrees East. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula
oli loketem kolosap lo top kona blo skwea leta I, namba 12 (I,12) insaed lo
Vanuatu Tropikol saeklon Traking Map. Hemia, hemi stap 200 KM south
blo Aneityum mo 285 KM south southeast blo Tanna. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula
i bin muv lo south southwest dareksen lo wan spid blo 14 KM/HR lo las 3 aoa we i pas.

Presa lo medel blo saeklon ia hemi kolosap lo 941 hPa. Pawa blo win kolosap
lo senta hemi 165 KM/HR. Sevea Tropikol saeklon Ula bai i muv i go lo
23.7 degrees South 170.1 degrees East lo nekis 06 kasem 12 aoa.

Ol win we pawa blo ol i save kasem 45 igo kasem 55KM/HR oli expekted blo stap
afektem Anietyum aelan mo slo slo bai i stap ko daon taem Tropikol saeklon
Ula i kontinu blo muv aot lo eria blo Vanuatu.

Fokas Posisen
Dei mo taem Posisen Pawa
+06 hours (11am, 11 Jan) 22.8S, 169.8E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5pm, 11 Jan) 23.7S, 170.1E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11pm, 11 Jan) 24.6S, 170.3E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5am, 12 Jan) 25.7S, 171.0E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5pm, 12 Jan) 27.6S, 172.6E 80 KTS (150 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5am, 13 Jan) 29.1S, 174.7E 80 KTS (150 KM/HR)

Solwora bai i raf tumas iet wetem ol bigfala swel i expekted blo afektem sol
wota blo saot.

Vanuatu Nasonal Disasta Manejmen Ofis hemi stap givim ALL CLEAR lo ol people
blo TAFEA.

Bae i no mo kat narafala woning we ba i kamaot.

Ol woning ia you save kasem lo website blo VMGD www.meteo.gov.vu

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) Warning #24
Issued at 10/2100Z

sh0616 10

 

WTPS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101800Z — NEAR 22.1S 170.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 170.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 24.3S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 26.7S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 29.2S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 30.8S 176.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 17 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 33.1S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 170.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM EAST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE THAT
HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC AND ELONGATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE
TO INCREASED NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, THE
CYCLONE HAS NEARLY LOST ITS EYE FEATURE AND CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE
CORE HAVE WARMED. A 101525Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE STILL SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE; HOWEVER, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PUSHED
TO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND DRY AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND AN
ASSESSMENT OF SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED BASED ON DECLINING
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND SUPPORTS THE
WEAKENING SEEN IN ALL IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 06P IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN AXIS OF
THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR). OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS THE
CYCLONE WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST. VWS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AND SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE,
ACCELERATING THE WEAKENING TREND. TC ULA WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WHICH SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Jan, 2016 6:00 GMT

Very Intense TC ULA is currently located near 20.5 S 170.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 115 kts (132 mph). ULA is a category category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. ULA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vanuatu
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    New Caledonia
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

201606P 10a

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING 047 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 101900 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 945HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0 SOUTH 170.1
EAST AT 101800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 22.0S 170.1E at 101800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 85 KNOTS
BY 110600UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN WEST
SEMICIRCLE.
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN EAST
SEMICIRLCE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.1S 170.1E AT 110600 UTC
AND NEAR 26.5S 171.1E AT 111800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 046

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Tonga/Vavau: Severe Tropical Cyclone 07 IAN (=CAT4 HURRICANE SS) 102100Z nr 19.3S 174.6W, moving S at 5 knot (JTWC) – 100114 2155z

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ian

 

Category Cyclone 4 (RSMC NADI)

 

= CAT 4 (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE VAVAU GROUP AND HAAPAI GROUP.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.

 

(RSMC NADI)

 

(G: Some images, despite being correct at time of edit, for some reason are not updating on the finished post. Please check time stamps carefully. Most images link to source if clicked upon. Some quick updates may be found in comments at bottom of page)

 

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

 

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/dd/Tonga.jpg

 

7570 people live on the Haapai Islands (Census 2006), Vavau Population 14922 (as of 2011) in path of TC Ian

 

 

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

 

TROPICALCYCLONETHREATTRACKMAP

 

Severe Tropical Cyclone IAN Category 4

 

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 25 issued 2013 UTC Friday 10 January 2014

 

 

Note: the past cyclone track may be adjusted on the basis of later information. The forecast track is considered the most likely based on the information available at time of analysis, and there may be other possible future tracks.

 

 

 

Warning: Gales or stronger within 24 hours Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Alert: Gales or stronger within 24-48 hours Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds

 

For the 24 hr and 48 hr positions, the three radii represent the extent of Hurricane, Storm and Gale winds away from the centre.

 

 

 

Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone IAN
Situation At: 1800 UTC Friday 10 January 2014
Location: 18.8S, 174.7W
Recent Movement: SSE at 12 km/h

 

 

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

 

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

 

 

 

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

 

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/0991.jpg

 

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A22 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 10/1940 UTC 2014 UTC.

 

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN 07F CENTRE 938HPA CAT 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.8S 174.7W AT 101800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 105 KNOTS.

 

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

 

EYE WELL DEFINED IN VIS/IR. IAN LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. OUTFLOW ENHANCED TO SOUTH BY JET STREAM
LOCATED ON THE DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROCHING UPPER TROUGH. SST AROUND
28 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE IN LG
SURROUND EMBEDDED IN B YIELDING DT OF 5.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED
ON DT THUS, T5.5/6.0/D1.0/24HRS.

 

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING.

 

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 20.1S 174.3W MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 21.6S 173.7W MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

 

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 23.2S 173.1W MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 25.0S 172.6W MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

 

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 110200 UTC.

 

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY FIVE for Tonga ON SEVERE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 10/1959 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

 

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE VAVAU GROUP AND HAAPAI
GROUP.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.

 

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN CENTRE [938HPA] CAT 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18
DECIMAL 9 SOUTH 174 DECIMAL 7 WEST OR ABOUT 45 NAUTICAL MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VAVAU AND 60 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
HAAPAI AT 101900 UTC. IAN IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 08 KNOTS. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE
AVERAGE WINDS UP TO ABOUT 105 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 145
KNOTS.

 

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT
95 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF VAVAU AND ABOUT 30 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAAPAI AT 110700 UTC AND ABOUT 185 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH OF VAVAU AND ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HAAPAI AND ABOUT 90 NAUTICAL MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NUKUALOFA AT
111900UTC.

 

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS MAY BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE
PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

 

FOR THE VAVAU AND HAAPAI GROUP:
EXPECT VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF
105 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 145 KNOTS. HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS. PHENOMENAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

 

FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 40 KNOTS AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

 

FOR THE REST OF TONGA:
CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SWELLS.

 

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
102300UTC OR EARLIER

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0714.gif

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/07P_100532sair.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101800Z NEAR 18.9S 174.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 174.8W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z 20.4S 174.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z 22.0S 173.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z 23.4S 173.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z 25.0S 172.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z 28.6S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 21 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z 34.1S 163.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 174.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM SOUTHWEST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 07P
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM TO THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 07P. THE IR
ANIMATION DEPICTS AN INTENSE, TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH AN 18 NM
EYE FEATURE. A 101652Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SHARPLY
DEFINED EYEWALL WITH SEVERAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING OUT
FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE IN THE IR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115-127 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
OF TC 07P HAS CONTINUED TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ALLOWED
THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL
FURTHER SUPPORT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. BY TAU 72,
TC 07P WILL BEGIN ENCOUNTERING STRONGER VWS AND COOLER SSTS,
BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 96. IMPROVEMENTS IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND MODEL
GUIDANCE LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN.

 

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

(Image: wunderground.com)

 

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Jan, 2014 18:00 GMT

 

 

 

Very Intense TC IAN (07P) currently located near 18.9 S 174.8 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nuku alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

 

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Storm Tracker Map

 

Emergency Management in the Kingdom of Tonga

 

Tonga Red Cross Society

 

(Links from doctoradvice4u.com)

 

MARITIME

 

METAREA14 / HURRICANE_WARNING_NORTH_25S / 1800

 

WHPS01 NFFN 101800
HURRICANE WARNING 024 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 10/1857 UTC 2014 UTC.

 

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN CENTRE 938HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8 SOUTH
174.7 WEST AT 101800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 18.8S 174.7W AT 101800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.

 

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, DECREASING TO 65 KNOTS
BY 111800 UTC.

 

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

 

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 20.1S 174.3W AT 110600 UTC
AND NEAR 21.6S 173.7W AT 111800 UTC.

 

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

 

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 023.

 

Marine Weather Bulletin Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi at 9:25am on Saturday the 11th of January 2014

 

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VATU-I-RA PASSAGE, KORO SEA AND LAU WATERS .

 

Situation: A fresh to strong southerly wind flow prevails over Fiji waters. Forecast to midday tomorrow for Fiji waters: For Vatu-i-ra passage, Koro Sea and Lau Waters: South to southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Rough seas. Moderate to heavy southerly swells. Further outlook: Southerly winds 15 to 20 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Moderate southerly swells. For the rest of Fiji waters: South to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Moderate southerly swells. Further outlook: Southerly winds 15 to 20 knots. Moderate to rough seas.