Mexico/ East Pacific: Tropical Storm Lidia 14E 01/0900Z update from NHC FL- Updated 01 Aug 2017 0913z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Lidia 14E

…LIDIA’S CENTER JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR…
…HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Baja California peninsula from San Jose de Las Palomas to Isla
San Luis
* Mainland Mexico from Altata to Puerto Libertad

ep201714_5day Lidia wund

(Image: @wunderground)

ep201714_sat lid wund

(Image: @wunderground)

201709010830

Obregón Radar Mexico

YUX_0

NWS radar Image from Yuma, AZ

National Hurricane Center (FL)

054211_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind LID NHC

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 010846
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017

…LIDIA’S CENTER JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR…
…HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR…

 

SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT…0900 UTC...INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.8N 111.0W
ABOUT 50 MI…85 KM WSW OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI…170 KM SE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB…29.15 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning on
the west coast of the Baja California peninsula northward to San
Jose de Las Palomas, on the east coast northward to Isla San
Luis, and along the coast of mainland Mexico northward to Puerto
Libertad.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for
Baja California Sur, as well as the Tropical Storm Warning south of
Altata on the coast of mainland Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Baja California peninsula from San Jose de Las Palomas to Isla
San Luis
* Mainland Mexico from Altata to Puerto Libertad

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in western Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula should monitor the progress of Lidia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 111.0 West. Lidia is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
direction with an increase in forward speed is expected through
Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia will
move near or along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula
through Saturday and then move west of the peninsula over the
Pacific waters Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days while
Lidia interacts with the mountainous terrain of the Baja California
peninsula. Lidia is expected to become a remnant low by Saturday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km),
especially to the northeast and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches across the Mexican states of Baja California Sur into
Baja California, Sinaloa, and the coastal section of Sonora, with
isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. These rains may cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Some of the tropical
moisture from Lidia may reach parts of the Desert Southwest this
holiday weekend, including southern California, southern Nevada, and
southwestern Arizona.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the southern
portion of Baja California Sur at this time. These conditions
should spread northward across the warning areas of the Baja
California peninsula and mainland Mexico through Saturday. Wind
speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are
often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds on the southern portion of Baja
California Sur. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern and western Mexico and southern portions of Baja
California Sur, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm3 LID

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1436

WTPZ24 KNHC 010845 RRA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017
0900 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON
THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO SAN
JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS… ON THE EAST COAST NORTHWARD TO ISLA SAN
LUIS… AND ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PUERTO
LIBERTAD.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR… AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH
OF ALTATA ON THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO ISLA
SAN LUIS
… MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO PUERTO LIBERTAD

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LIDIA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 111.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT…….170NE 130SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 111.0W AT 01/0900Z

 

FZPN02 KWBC 010525
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SEP 01.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 02.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 03.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 50N174E 1008 MB MOVING E 25 KT. FROM 42N TO 49N BETWEEN
178W AND 170E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 540 NM S QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N172W 1002 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
49N169W TO 45N169W TO 40N172W. WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT WINDS 25
TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 38N TO 50N BETWEEN 163W
AND 179W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN LOW 53N162W 977 MB.
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 55N159W TO 50N157W TO SECOND LOW 47N159W
985 MB TO 40N169W. WITHIN 120 NM N AND NW SEMICIRCLES MAIN LOW
AND 300 NM E AND SE OF FRONT WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 21
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM N…600 NM E AND W AND 960 NM S
QUADRANTS MAIN LOW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 53.92N 168.03W IS CURRENTLY IN A HEIGHTENED
STATE OF UNREST AND REMAINS ACTIVE. MARINERS TRAVELING IN THE
VICINITY OF BOGOSLOF VOLCANO ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION. IF
MARINERS ENCOUNTER ANY VOLCANIC ASH…REPORT THE OBSERVATION TO
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER BY CALLING 301-683-1520.

.FROM 31N TO 45N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W AREA OF N TO NW WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 240 NM E OF A LINE FROM 37N134W TO
43N130W TO 47N126W AREA OF N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN FROM 42N TO 48N E OF 129W AREA OF N TO
NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.FROM 54N TO 59N BETWEEN 148W AND 162W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.LOW 56N169W 1006 MB MOVING E 15 KT. WITHIN 120 NM SE AND 180 NM
SW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.FROM 51N TO 56N BETWEEN 131W AND 138W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.LOW 45N144W 1012 MB MOVING NE 35 KT. FRONT EXTENDS FROM 48N135W
TO LOW TO 31N162W. WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW INLAND. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 49N136W TO
42N145W TO 34N154W. WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF FRONT WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 42N146W 1008 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.LOW NW OF AREA 58N163E 994 MB MOVING SE 25 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 420 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N178W 996 MB. FROM 49N TO 55N W OF 173W
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW ABSORBED AND CONDITIONS DESCRIBED IN
WARNINGS SECTION ABOVE.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N173E 1009 MB. FROM 42N TO 47N BETWEEN
179W AND 163E AREA OF SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW ABSORBED AND CONDITIONS DESCRIBED IN
WARNINGS SECTION ABOVE.

.48 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 34N162E
TO 45N169E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 120 NM SE OF
A LINE FROM 46N140W TO 40N147W AND WITHIN 300 NM N OF A LINE
FROM 39N160E TO 41N168E TO 45N176E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 300 NM N OF A LINE FROM
39N160E TO 42N169E TO 43N180W AND FROM 43N TO 49N BETWEEN 130W
AND 141W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 38N TO 43N BETWEEN 160E AND
170E AND FROM 40N TO 49N BETWEEN 126W AND 133W.

.HIGH 45N130W 1024 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 48N127W 1020 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 40N135W 1024 MB DRIFTING NW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N136W 1021 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.HIGH 32N145W 1022 MB MOVING NW 05 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N147W 1020 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 41N175W 1029 MB MOVING SW 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH MERGED WITH HIGH 37N179E BELOW.

.HIGH 38N176E 1025 MB MOVING SE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 37N179E 1026 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N178E 1025 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 54N138W 1022 MB.

.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC FRI SEP 01.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT SEP 02.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SUN SEP 03.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM LIDIA NEAR 23.3N 110.4W 991 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP
01 MOVING NNW OR 335 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 160 NM NE
QUADRANT…150 NM SE QUADRANT…40 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 60 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE…180
NM NE QUADRANT AND 270 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 23 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 25N115W TO 25N104W TO 16N105W
TO 17N109W TO 22N114W TO 25N115W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM INLAND NEAR 26.0N 112.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 140 NM NE QUADRANT…80 NM SE QUADRANT…30 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE…90 NM SW QUADRANT
AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS TO 18 FT.
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 28N112W TO
26N110W TO 23N108W TO 24N112W TO 22N109W TO 22N114W TO 26N114W
TO 28N112W WINDS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. FROM 15N TO
22N BETWEEN 106W AND 114W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN
MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LIDIA OVER WATER NEAR 28.7N
115.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS LESS
THAN 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 28N115W TO 23N112W
TO 25N115W TO 28N115W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT. GULF OF
CALIFORNIA FROM 27N TO 28N SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LIDIA NEAR 30.5N
119.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LIDIA NEAR 31.5N
122.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LIDIA NEAR 31.5N
125.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 17N114W TO 17N109W TO 16N105W TO 11N110W
TO 10N116W TO 12N122W TO 15N115W TO 17N114W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 12N127W TO 09N140W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 12N127W TO 09N140W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL.

.WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 05N123W TO 01N118W TO 03.4S106W TO
03.4S120W TO 00N120W TO 00N128W TO 05N123W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 15N109W TO 09N118W TO
12N118W TO 14N115W TO 15N109W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN
MIXED SE AND SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 07N123W TO 03N115W TO
03.4S103W TO 03.4S120W TO 00N125W TO 03N131W TO 07N123W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0215 UTC FRI SEP 01…

.TROPICAL STORM LIDIA…NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM E
SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM E
SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM SW
QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17N107W TO
JUST INLAND THE COAST OF MEXICO AT CABO CORRIENTES.

.LOW PRES NEAR 12N133W…SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM OF
13N132W.

.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W N OF 11N…SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN
30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13N91W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 12N94W TO 14N106W.
IT RESUMES FROM 15N110W TO 13N122W TO 13N126W TO LOW PRES NEAR
12N133W 1010 MB TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF
AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 93W.

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SEP 01 2017.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 02 2017.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 03 2017.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.COLD FRONT 30N164W 26N177W MOVING SE SLOWLY. ISOLATED MODERATE
TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM W OF FRONT N OF 28N.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT 30N160W 28N167W 28N175W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT 30N156W 26N164W 26N175W.

.RIDGE FROM 30N146W 27N157W 27N167W MOVING SE SLOWLY.

.RIDGE FROM 30N174E 27N178W NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENING.

.WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 24N W OF 165E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 28N W OF 162E AND N OF
28N BETWEEN 173E AND 175W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF AREA.

.SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF 25N W OF 164E. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 09N TO
13N BETWEEN 156W AND 168W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT N OF 28N W OF 162E AND FROM 09N
TO 13N BETWEEN 164W AND 175W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT N OF 25N W OF 162E.

.ITCZ 10N140W 07N166W 08N180W 07N172E 08N160E. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 174E AND
175W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS N OF 20N W OF 165E…FROM 10N TO 14N W
OF 166E AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 17N174E.

$$

.FORECASTER BURKE. HONOLULU HI.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

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Mexico: Tropical Storm Franklin – ⚠️ Hurricane Warning for MX coast from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan (NHC FL) – Published 09 Aug 2017 1040z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Franklin

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan (NHC FL)

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco (NHC FL)

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del
Carmen (NHC FL)
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo (NHC FL)

Traducción al español (haga clic aquí)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

000
WTNT32 KNHC 090838
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017

…FRANKLIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…
…TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MODIFIED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO…

 

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.4N 92.7W
ABOUT 190 MI…305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI…390 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.36 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico north of Rio Panuco to Barra del Tordo. The
Government of Mexico has also discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning east of Ciudad del Carmen.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del
Carmen
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. On the
forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to approach the
coast of eastern Mexico today, then cross the coast in the Mexican
state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and
Franklin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and reach the
coast of Mexico as a hurricane tonight or early Thursday. Rapid
weakening is expected after landfall in Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. The Mexican automated station at Cayo Arenas,
located to the north-northeast of the center, recently reported
sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph
(81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico through Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible
across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern
Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Louis Potosi in
eastern Mexico. These rains will be capable of producing
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the Hurricane Warning area by tonight. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the
Bay of Campeche through tonight. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in
eastern Mexico by this evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall in the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

=============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 9 Aug, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FRANKLIN is currently located near 20.4 N 92.7 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). FRANKLIN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
    Veracruz (19.2 N, 96.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Aldama (23.0 N, 98.1 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Coatzacoalcos (18.2 N, 94.4 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

Landfall #2 Coming Up: Franklin Enters Bay of Campeche (Category 6 website)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: NHC FL)

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0837

WTNT22 KNHC 090837
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017
0900 UTC WED AUG 09 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF RIO PANUCO TO BARRA DEL TORDO. THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING EAST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO TUXPAN

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF TUXPAN TO RIO PANUCO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF TUXPAN TO BARRA DEL TORDO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.7W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…….120NE 60SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.7W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 110SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.3N 96.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 110SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.9N 98.8W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 92.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Typhoon #SAOLA ( #GENER) kills 12 in Philippines; Taiwan and SE China should closely monitor the progress of this typhoon – Updated 02 Aug 2012 1500 GMT/UTC

(Image: wunderground.com)
Five Day Forecast Map
(Click image for source)

31 July 2012 2128Z RSMC Tokyo (JMA) upgrades Severe Tropical Storm Saola to typhoon @tenspider_wx

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Aug, 2012 06:00 GMT

Tropical Storm SAOLA (10W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
黄色警报国家或 Province(s)
台湾
ts 的概率是 60%目前
中国
猫 1 或以上的概率是 15%在 12 小时内
ts 的概率是 50%在 12 小时内
黄色警报 City(s) 和 Town(s)
台北 (25.0 N、 121.5 E)
ts 的概率是 60%目前

请注意,
黄色警报 (高架) 是猫 1 或以上为 10%和 30%的概率或到概率 50%以上的 TS 之间。
猫 1 意味着至少 74 英里每小时,每小时 119 公里或 64 海里,1 分钟持续台风强度风。
TS 意味着至少 39 英里每小时,每小时 63 公里或 34 海里/小时 1 分钟持续的热带风暴强度风。

有关图形预测的信息和进一步的详细信息,请访问 http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

TY 1209 (SAOLA)
Issued at 10:45 UTC, 1 August 2012 http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/
<Analyses at 01/10 UTC>
Scale    Large
Intensity    Strong
Center position    N23°50'(23.8°)
    E122°55'(122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement    NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure    960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center    35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed    50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more    ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more    SE750km(400NM)
    NW560km(300NM)
<Estimate for 01/11 UTC>
Scale    Large
Intensity    Strong
Center position    N23°55'(23.9°)
    E122°50'(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement    NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure    960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center    35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed    50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more    ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more    SE750km(400NM)
    NW560km(300NM)
<Forecast for 01/21 UTC>
Intensity    Strong
Center position of probability circle    N24°40'(24.7°)
    E122°10'(122.2°)
Direction and speed of movement    NW Slowly
Central pressure    950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center    40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed    60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle    90km(50NM)
Storm warning area    ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 02/09 UTC>
Intensity    Strong
Center position of probability circle    N25°50'(25.8°)
    E121°50'(121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement    N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure    950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center    40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed    60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle    130km(70NM)
Storm warning area    ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 03/06 UTC>
Intensity    -
Center position of probability circle    N28°35'(28.6°)
    E120°00'(120.0°)
Direction and speed of movement    NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure    990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed    20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed    30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle    200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 04/06 UTC>
Intensity    -
    TD
Center position of probability circle    N30°50'(30.8°)
    E116°00'(116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement    WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure    996hPa
Radius of probability circle  300km(160NM)

Typhoon SAOLA (GENER) has remained almost stationary while still over Northeastern Taiwan…starts to weaken due to land interaction. Typhoon Conditions continuing across Northern & Mid-Central Taiwan.

This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces, rest of Luzon, Bicol Region, Mindoro, and Western Visayas today. Breezy to windy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasionally passing rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas, especially along the western coast. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be rough and dangerous.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan and Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of Saola (Gener).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins. – thenhbushmantyphoon.blogspot

台风 SAOLA (恒) 一直几乎固定虽然仍然高于 … … 台湾东北开始削弱由于土地的互动。继续跨北 & Mid-Central 台湾的台风条件。
这场风暴将继续加强西南季风 (aka。Habagat) 之间,在马尼拉南部他加禄语省份,今天吕宋、 比科尔地区、 民都洛和西方幽静乡土气息的其余部分。阵阵大风及有骤雨条件偶尔路过雨、 雷暴和狂风将沿着上述地区,尤其是沿西海岸。西、 东和北菲律宾海域面临的沿海地区海洋将粗糙和危险。
居民和游客沿台湾与中国东南部应密切监测 Saola (恒) 的进展情况。
请不要使用此生或死的决定。这个咨询是额外的信息仅用于目的。请参阅本地警告、 通报、 公告贵国的官方天气机构。-thenhbushmantyphoon.blogspot

Philippines:

PAGASA-DOST:

11PM (Philippines Time)(8/2/12)SWB#23 TS”GENER”(SAOLA)(FINAL BULLETIN)
@10PM (PhT), the center of TS “GENER” was @560km NNW of Basco,Batanes(26.0°N, 121.3°E).

Maximum winds 110kph & gust 140kph. Forecast to move NNW @ 15kph.

GENER is expected to be @680km NNW of Basco,Batanes by tomorrow morning, outside PAR.Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere is now lowered.

GENER is expected to enhanced the SW Monsoon that will bring rains & mod to strong winds over Luzon & Visayas.

Residents living in low lying & mountainous areas are alerted against possible flashfloods & landslides.

Fishing boats & other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Seaboard of Luzon & Visayas due to the combined effect of GENER & SW Monsoon. PAGASA-DOST

Water levels map here

PAGASA DOST Flood Bulletins

Philippines Govt Emergency numbers and hotlines of government agencies: gov.ph/government…

NDRRMC advisory for Pampanga Basin http://fb.me/23c7orqnC

‘Gener’ leaves 12 dead

MANILA, Philippines – Rains and strong winds brought about by typhoon “Gener” (international name: Saola) left 12 people dead, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council said Wednesday.

More rain expected from Typhoon Gener (Saola)

Death toll from Typhoon Saola has risen to seven. Floods displaced more than 20,000 people.

Still many parts of Manila and outlying provinces were without power.
According to weather bureau in Manila, the storm is expected to blow toward Taiwan later this week.  More from disaster-report.com

Yet more detail, including the names of the 7 who lost their lives in this Typhoon – philstar.com

@28storms:New Typhoon Saola video out Taiwan by chaser James Reynolds @typhoonhunter http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lejmAc59hU … http://fb.me/1vhGbLRnh

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

(Image: wunderground.com)
Animated Satellite
(Click image for source)

wtpn31 pgtw 030300
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical storm 10w (Saola) warning nr 025
   03 active tropical cyclones in northwestpac
   Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
   wind radii valid over open water only
    ---
   warning position:
   030000z --- near 27.0n 119.3e
     movement past six hours - 305 degrees at 14 kts
     position accurate to within 060 nm
     position based on center located by satellite
   present wind distribution:
   Max sustained winds - 035 kt, gusts 045 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over land
   repeat posit: 27.0n 119.3e
    ---
   forecasts:
   12 hrs, valid at:
   031200z --- 28.0n 117.5e
   Max sustained winds - 025 kt, gusts 035 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over land
   vector to 24 hr posit: 290 deg/ 09 kts
    ---
   24 hrs, valid at:
   040000z --- 28.7n 115.5e
   Max sustained winds - 020 kt, gusts 030 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   dissipated as a significant tropical cyclone over land
    ---
remarks:
030300z position near 27.3n 118.8e.
Tropical Storm (TS) 10w (Saola), located approximately 275 nm south-
southwest of Shanghai, China, has tracked northwestward at 14 knots
over the past six hours. Recent multispectral satellite imagery is
depicting that ts Saola has made landfall north of fuzhou, China and
is rapidly losing organization. Animated infrared imagery is showing
warming cloud tops and ts 10w is dissipating due to frictional
effects. Ts 10w will continue to rapidly dissipate as it stays over
eastern China for the next 24 hours. This is the final warning on
this system by the joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi. The system
will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration. Refer to
tropical storm 11w (Damrey) final warning (wtpn32 pgtw). Refer to
tropical depression 12w (twelve) warnings (wtpn33 pgtw)for six-
hourly updates.//

 

US: DEBBY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA (NHCAdv16) – 27 June 2012 1010 GMT/UTC

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(Image: NHC NOAA)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click image for source)

NWS Tallahasee, FL Local Doppler Radars

Fort Rucker, AL (KEOX)
(check status)�E��E�

The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar at Ft. Rucker, AL.  Click on the image for additional options.�E��E�

Moody AFB, GA (KVAX)
(check status)�E��E�

The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar at Moody AFB, GA.  Click on the image for additional options.

Eglin AFB, FL (KEVX)
(check status)�E��E�

The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar at Eglin AFB, FL.  Click on the image for additional options.

Tallahassee, FL (KTLH)
(check status)�E��E�

The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar that serves Tallahassee, FL.  Click on the image for additional options.

POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY (CLICK HERE FOR JAX BRIEFING)…

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 27 Jun, 2012 9:00 GMT

Tropical Depression DEBBY (AL04) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States
probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

N Atlántico: Alerta de tormenta emitido al 27 de junio 2012 09:00 GMT

Tropical DEBBY Depresión (AL04) se prevé que la huelga de la tierra a la probabilidad siguiente (s) en el plazo de entrega determinado (s):
País alerta amarilla (s) o de la Provincia (s)
los Estados Unidos
probabilidad de TS es del 90% en la actualidad
Amarillo Ciudad Alerta (s) y Ciudad (s)
Orlando (29,0 N, 81,5 W)
probabilidad de TS es del 55% en la actualidad

Nótese que
Alerta amarilla (elevada) es CAT 1 o superior a entre 10% y 30% de probabilidad, o TS anteriormente probabilidad del 50%.
CAT 1 significa que vientos huracanados de fuerza de por lo menos 74 mph, 119 km / ho 64 nudos 1-min sostenida.
TS significa vientos fuerza de tormenta tropical de al menos 39 mph, 63 km / ho 34 nudos 1-min sostenida.

Para información de los pronósticos gráfica y otros detalles por favor visite http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

000
WTNT34 KNHC 270831
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
500 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

…DEBBY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST OF
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.6N 81.0W
ABOUT 25 MI…45 KM SE OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH…17
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…DEBBY
SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM FLORIDA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE…ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTS OF FLORIDA SHOULD SUBSIDE
LATER TODAY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH DEBBY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE LINGERING
RAIN BANDS…MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTCA44 TJSJ 270931
TCPSP4

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA  NUMERO  16
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL042012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM EDT MIERCOLES 27 DE JUNIO DE 2012

…DEBBY MENOS ORGANIZADA MIENTRAS ALCANZA LA COSTA ESTE DEL NORTE
CENTRAL DE FLORIDA…

RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMACION
————————————————–
LOCALIZACION…29.6 NORTE 81.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 25 MI…45 KM AL SURESTE DE ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL…ESTE NORESTE O 75 GRADOS A 10 MPH…17 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA…998 MB…29.47 PULGADAS

VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
——————–
NO HAY VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
—————————————————
A LAS 5:00 AM EDT…0900 UTC…EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL
DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.6 NORTE…LONGITUD
81.0 OESTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A
CERCA DE 10 MPH…17 KM/H. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE
TRASLACION. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA…DEBBY DEBERA ALEJARSE
GRADUALMENTE DE FLORIDA HOY.

VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH…55 KM/H…CON
RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN SU INTENSIDAD
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 998 MB…29.47 PULGADAS.

PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
————————-
MAREJADA CICLONICA…NIVELES ALTOS DE AGUA EN AREAS DONDE LAS AGUAS
NORMALMENTE FLUYEN SOBRE LA COSTA A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DEL
SUROESTE Y NORESTE DE FLORIDA DEBEN DISMINUIR MAS TARDE HOY. PARA
INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA…FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.

LLUVIA…SE ESPERA QUE LAS LLUVIAS ASOCIADAS A DEBBY CONTINUEN
DISMINUYENDO A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA MAS TARDE HOY.
CANTIDADES AISLADAS ADICIONALES DE HASTA UNA PULGADA SON POSIBLES EN
LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE DEBBY…MAYORMENTE SOBRE EL SUR DE FLORIDA.

PROXIMAS ADVERTENCIAS
———————
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA…1100 AM EDT.

$$

PRONOSTICADORES AVILA

000
WTNT44 KNHC 270832
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
500 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

SATELLITE…RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF DEBBY IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING ELONGATED. THE CENTER
IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION…BUT THE AREA
OF MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 075
DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS IN A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
FLORIDA ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL
PROBABLY 30 KNOTS IN A FEW SQUALLS MAINLY OVER WATER.

NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH…AND IN FACT…BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST
WEAKENING IN THE 00 UTC RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS DEBBY AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALLOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEYOND 3
DAYS.

DEBBY IS EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH…AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR
NORTHEAST AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 29.6N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH…OVER WATER
12H  27/1800Z 30.0N  79.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  28/0600Z 30.5N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  28/1800Z 31.0N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  29/0600Z 32.0N  70.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  30/0600Z 35.0N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  01/0600Z 38.0N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 45.5N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT44 TJSJ 270832
TCDAT4

DEBBY DEPRESION TROPICAL NÚMERO 16 DE DEBATE
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042012
500 AM EDT MIERCOLES 27 de junio 2012

Las observaciones de radar … Y SATÉLITE superficie indica que el
CIRCULACIÓN DE DEBBY es cada vez más alargada. EL CENTRO
Es difícil de localizar Dada la falta de organización … PERO LA ZONA
DE PRESION MINIMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE O ESTE-075
GRADOS a 9 nudos en el noreste de la Florida Central. LA MAYORÍA DE LAS PROFUNDIDADES
CONVECCIÓN está en una banda tipo frontal AMPLIACIÓN DEL NORESTE
A TRAVES DE LA FLORIDA Atlántico adyacente. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SON TODAVÍA
Probablemente 30 nudos con una TURBONADAS PRINCIPALMENTE sobre el agua.

NINGUNA DE LAS DIRECTRICES DE INTENSIDAD muestran un aumento significativo EN
Fuerza … Y, de hecho … Tanto el modelo GFS y ECMWF dan a entender
Debilitamiento en el RUN 00 UTC. El pronóstico oficial DEBBY MANTIENE COMO
DEPRESION TROPICAL Y PERMITE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE más allá de 3
DÍAS.

DEBBY está incrustado en flujo del oeste dentro de la base A MEDIADOS DE LA LATITUD
A TRAVÉS DE … y debe seguir para avanzar en la ESTE-NORESTE O
NORESTE DE LO INDICADO POR LOS MODELOS GLOBALES. LA PREVISIÓN OFICIAL
En medio de la GFS y ECMWF MODELOS.

POSICIONES DE PREVISIÓN Y Vientos máximos

INIT 29.6N 81.0W 27/0900Z 30 KT 35 MPH … SOBRE EL AGUA
12H 30.0N 79.4W 27/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30.5N 76.5W 28/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31.0N 73.0W 28/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 32.0N 70.5W 29/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 35.0N 66.5W 30/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 38.0N 62.0W 01/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 45.5N 50.0W 02/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

A man has been captured on film using a wind created by tropical storm Debby to leap over an entire pier at Redington Beach, Florida, according to the Telegraph.

The gale-force winds, which have been measuring up to 50 miles per hour, lift him totally clear of the structure.

The video was taken by onlooker Jay Gartner, who uploaded it onto YouTube on Sunday, and it has since been viewed over 300,000 times. – AOL

#Philippines #Tornado & #Flooding:At least 2 dead, 37 missing, 765 families & 3,825 dependents, affected in Sarangani flood – Published 15 June 2012 1420 GMT/UTC

Friday, 15 June, 2012 at 03:19 UTC RSOE:

Philippines Flooding: At least 2 dead as search for 61* swept away in Sarangani continues, 765 families evacuated

Search and rescue teams are the continuing the search for the 61* reported missing persons who were swept away by a flash flood in Sarangani Province Monday evening, June 11.

In a resolution approved by Glan Mayor James Victor Yap, the entire municipality of Glan was already declared under a state of calamity.

Yap said that the flash flood left an estimated P20-million damage on properties in the municipality with at least 30 houses totally destroyed.

He said that Vice-president Jejomar Binay had already committed 1,000 packs of relief goods for the affected families.

Aside from the provincial government and the neighboring municipalities, Sarangani Province Representative Manny Pacquiao also pledged financial support for the victims and for the search and rescue operations, Yap said.

Convergence and collaboration of rescue and relief operations between the local government, PNP, Philippine Army, Navy, Coast Guard and other disaster relief and rescue units are currently being conducted in the affected barangays in the municipalities of Glan and Maasim.

Maj Jake Obligado, Civil-Military Operations Chief of the 10th Infantry Division, said that the missing individuals were indentified after the Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Councils of the municipalities of Maasim and Glan conducted house-to-house surveys in every barangay to physically account for the affected families.

Obligado said that a total of 765 affected families are presently housed in 4 evacuation centers in the municipality of Glan. The Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction Management Office (PDRRMO) also reported that 276 persons, mostly fishermen, have been either rescued or washed ashore after the flash flood.

The Sarangani PDRRMO said that the local government of Maasim has dispatched search and rescue teams to barangay fishermen in Glan. Search and rescue units will also be dispatched to Balut Island to scour for more survivors.

Two persons were confirmed dead in the flooding brought by the torrential rain.

Meanwhile in Palawan, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) found and retrieved the body of a 6th casualty in the MV Joecill 2 sea tragedy that occurred in El Nido, Palawan Tuesday, June 12.

The victim was identified as Juanito Tito, a village councillor of Barangay New Guinlo, Taytay. Survivors interviewed over local radio DWAR said they last saw Tito removing his life jacket and giving it to an elderly passenger before they jumped together into the water.

According to the PCG, 6 passengers have been reported missing by relatives, while 56 have been rescued.

Two of those missing were an 8-month-old infant and a certain Julito Buenafe.

The owner of the vessel, Silverio Atienza of Silverio Shipping Lines, acknowledged during a radio interview that the boat manifest did not include the names of other passengers who took the boat.

The Western Command reported 7 dead so far, while another unidentified body was retrieved Thursday afternoon. Search and rescue operations are still ongoing. (*now 37 missing)

Government of the Philippines Report 15 June 2012

37 missing, 765 families & 3,825 dependents, affected in Sarangani flood

By Danilo E. Doguiles

KORONADAL CITY, June 15 (PIA) — Thirty-seven fishermen are still unaccounted or in Sarangani province, according to a report from the Sarangani Provincial Information based on the 4:00 p.m. June 14 consolidated report of the Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office (PDRRMO).

This brings the total number of fishermen who were rescued or confirmed to have safely returned to shore to 307. Most of them have already returned to their homes.

They were part of the fishermen, mostly from Maasim, who were lost at sea following a storm surge Tuesday dawn.

Search and rescue teams from the Maasim Municipal DRRM, the Philippine Coast Guard and the Philippine Navy as well as local banca operators in the area continue to scour Sarangani Bay and the area surrounding Balut Island for survivors.

The number of casualties from the June 12 flash flood and storm surge remain at two.

Capt. George Ursabia, commander of Coast Guard District South Eastern Mindanao (CGDSEM), told the PDRRMO during the incident assessment that three was no storm on June 12 but just sudden change of weather and sea conditions due to the shallow LPA 100 km south of Mindanao at the time that apparently induced the southwest monsoon.

It was so sudden that the change of sea condition was so abrupt, from calm to rough, with a wind of approximately 40 knots, he said.

The situation began around 1:00 a.m., Tuesday and lasted for more or less 25 hours until early dawn Wednesday.

Most of the fishermen were out at sea as early as in the evening of 11 June when the sea and weather were normal, not expecting such unusual change (of weather and sea conditions) as there were no signs of such in a progressive manner, he said. They were caught off-guard.

Meanwhile, Glans Municipal DRRMO also raised yesterday afternoon the total number of families affected by the June 12 flash flood to 765 families with 3,825 dependents.

The number of worst-hit barangays had also been raised to four with the addition of Baragay Laguimit. Initially, the villages of Pangyan, Cross, and Big Margus were identified as the most affected areas. The flood also hit 16 other barangays.

Yesterday morning, Glan Mayor Victor James Yap Sr. led a convoy of medical team, government employees, and trucks loaded with rice for distribution to the affected barangays.

The Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD)12 also released a truckload of family food packs along with UNICEF-donated tarpaulins that could be made into tents and bedsheets.

Yap has also asked the the Government Security and Insurance System (GSIS) to grant all GSIS members in Sarangani financial assistance under the GSIS calamity fund.

In a letter sent to GSIS Manager Maria Cecilia Vega yesterday, the local chief executive cited the tornado and flash floods that struck 20 barangays in the municipality as primary reason of the request. (DED-PIA 12)

#CARLOTTA NOW A REMNANT LOW OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF #MEXICO, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS – CARLOTTA AHORA UN REMANENTE DE BAJA SOBRE EL TERRENO DE ALTA DE MEXICO, LIFE-INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS POSIBLE por varios días más(NHCAdv13) – Updated 17 June 2012 1930 GMT/UTC

�E�E�E�
�E�E�E�

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Tropical Storm CARLOTTA Coastal Watches/Warnings
and 3-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click image for source)

 

(Image:smn.cna.gob.mx)
Acapulco Radar
(Click image for animation/source)

American Red Cross hurricane preparedness page

Preparaci�E��E��E� para hurc�E�E�E�n�E�E�E�Cruz Roja Americana (Spanish-language version)

Hurricane and severe weather checklist for boaters

Warning: Hurricane #Carlotta eye next to #PuertoAngel, #Mexico NOAA Image:�E��E� 1745 Mexico Time

Acercamiento imagen satel #Carlotta a las 17:45 notar cercanía ojo a Puerto Ángel vía ssd.noaa.gov

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 170234
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012

CARLOTTA NOW A REMNANT LOW OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO…
…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.1N 100.3W
ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM ENE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…25 MPH…35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 PM PDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH…
LONGITUDE 100.3 WEST.  THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/H…AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION
UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH…35 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES…100 TO 200 MM…THROUGH MONDAY
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES…375 MM…ARE POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON MARINE
CONDITIONS RELATED TO THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF
MEXICO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND INLAND
FLOODING.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

000
WTPZ33 TJSJ 170234
TCPEP3

BOLETÍN
DESPUÉS DE CICLONES TROPICALES CARLOTTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP032012
800 AM PST SAT 16 de junio 2012

AHORA … CARLOTTA UN REMANENTE DE BAJA SOBRE EL TERRENO DE ALTA DE MEXICO …
… PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS permitido a varias
MÁS DÍAS …

RESUMEN DE LAS 800 PM PDT … 0300 UTC … INFORMACIÓN
———————————————-
UBICACIÓN 18.1N 100.3W …
ACERCA DE MI 90 … 145 KM DE ENE ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 25 MPH … 35 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … ESE O 295 GRADOS A 5 MPH … 7 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 1006 MB … 29.71 PULGADAS

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——————–
No hay relojes costeras o los avisos vigentes.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
——————————
A LAS 800 PM PDT … 0300 UTC … EL CENTRO DE POST-DE CICLONES TROPICALES
CARLOTTA ESTABA LOCALIZADO SOBRE TIERRA MÉXICO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.1 NORTE …
LONGITUD 100.3 OESTE. LA BAJA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE
CERCA DE 5 MPH … 7 KM / H. .. y debe continuar ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL
Hasta que se disipa.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 25 MPH … 35 KM / H. .. CON MAYOR
RAFAGAS. LA BAJA RESTO SE espera que se disipe EL DOMINGO.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 1006 MB … 29.71 PULGADAS.

RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
———————-
LLUVIA … CARLOTTA SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA TOTALES DE LLUVIA
ACUMULACIONES DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS … 100 a 200 mm … HASTA EL LUNES
Partes del sur de MEXICO. CANTIDADES AISLADAS TOTALES DE LA TORMENTA
15 PULGADAS … 375 mm … SON POSIBLES. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR
PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS.

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
————-
ESTA ES LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA EMITIDA POR EL HURACÁN NACIONAL
CENTRO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA OBTENER MÁS INFORMACIÓN SOBRE EL MAR
Condiciones relacionadas con el REMANENTE DE BAJA POR FAVOR VER EN ALTA MAR
PREVISIONES EMITIDOS POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA … bajo AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI Y ENCABEZADO WMO FZPN01 KWBC.

CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR EL SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO DE
MÉXICO PARA OBTENER INFORMACIÓN ADICIONAL ACERCA DE LLUVIA INTENSA Y en el interior
INUNDACIONES.

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR BERG

COMISIÓN NACIONAL DEL AGUASERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL DE MÉXICO

 

   
  Aviso de difusión inmediata deCiclón Tropical del Océano Pacífico

 

   
  México, D.F. a 16 de junio de 2012Aviso No. 22

Emisión:  22:00 horas

 
       
 

El Servicio Meteorológico Nacional dependiente de la CONAGUA (fuente oficial del Gobierno de

México) en el marco del Sistema Nacional de Protección Civil, informa:

 

 

SECCIÓN A. CONDICIONES ACTUALES

CICLÓN TROPICAL

REMANENTES DE LA DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL �gCARLOTTA�h

SITUACIÓN ACTUAL

�gCARLOTTA�h COMIENZA A DISIPARSE SOBRE LA ZONA MONTAÑOSA DEL OCCIDENTE DE GUERRERO

ZONA DE ALERTA

INDICE DE PELIGROSIDAD

 MODERADO

HORA LOCAL (HORA GMT)

22:00 HORAS LOCAL (03 GMT DEL DÍA 17)

UBICACIÓN DEL CENTRO DEL CICLÓN

COORDENADAS: 18.1�� LAT. NORTE

100.3�� LONG. OESTE

DISTANCIA AL LUGAR MÁS CERCANO

EN TIERRA, A 25 km AL SUR DE ARCELIA, GRO.

DESPLAZAMIENTO ACTUAL

HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE (295��) A 7 km/h

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS

SOSTENIDOS: 35 km/h

RACHAS: 55 km/h

PRESIÓN MÍNIMA CENTRAL

1006 hPa

DIAMETRO DEL OJO

DIAMETRO DE FUERTE CONVECCIÓN

CON IMAGEN INFRAROJA: SE OBSERVA NUBOSIDAD DESORGANIZADA QUE CUBRE EL SUR, CENTRO Y OCCIDENTE DEL PAIS

COMENTARIOS ADICIONALES

LA DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL �gCARLOTTA�h A COMENZADO A DISPARSE SOBRE EL OCCIDENTE DE GUERRERO, Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE COMO BAJA PRESION REMANENTE DURANTE EL DIA DE MAÑANA EN ESTA REGION.AÚN ORIGINA NUBLADOS DISORGANIZADOS QUE CUBREN LOS ESTADOS DE JALISCO, COLIMA, MICHOACAN, GUERRERO, OAXACA, CHIAPAS, VERACRUZ, PUEBLA, TLAXCALA, HIDALGO, QUERÉTARO, GUANAJUATO, MÉXICO, DISTRITO FEDERAL Y MORELOS, GENERANDO LLUVIAS. LAS CUALES PUEDEN SER FUERTES A INTENSAS CON TORMENTAS ELÉCTRICAS, PRINCIPALMENTE EN OAXACA, GUERRERO Y MICHOACÁN. SE RECOMIENDA EXTREMAR PRECAUCIONES POR INUNDACIONES Y DESLAVES DE TERRENO.

ELABORÓ: MARTÍN TÉLLEZ SAUCEDO

REVISÓ: RAÚL RIVERA PALACIOS.

EL SIGUIENTE AVISO DE DIFUSIÓN INMEDIATA SE EMITIRÁ:

POR SUS CONDICIONES DE DEBILITAMIENTO ESTE ES EL ÚLTIMO AVISO DE �gCARLOTTA�h. A PARTIR DE ESTE MOMENTO SE RECOMIENDA CONSULTAR LOS DIFERENTES BOLETINES EMITIDOS POR EL SMN.
 

Press Coverage:

OAXACA, Mexico, June 16, 2012 (AFP) – Two girls were killed when their house collapsed in southwestern Mexico in a mudslide under heavy rains unleashed by Hurricane Carlotta, local officials said Saturday.

The two sisters — aged seven and 13 — died in Oaxaca, after Carlotta made landfall late Friday as a category one storm on the five-point Saffir-Simpson scale, the state institute of Civil Protection said.

FULL STORY HERE

OAXACA, México, junio 16, 2012 (AFP) – Dos niñas murieron cuando su casa se derrumbó en el suroeste de México en un alud de lodo en las fuertes lluvias desencadenadas por el huracán Carlotta, dijeron funcionarios locales el sábado.

Las dos hermanas – de siete años y 13 – murió en Oaxaca, después de Carlotta tocó tierra la noche del viernes como una tormenta de categoría uno en la de cinco puntos de Saffir-Simpson, del Instituto Estatal de Protección Civil, dijo.

NOTICIA COMPLETA AQUI

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #BERYL ADV12 – 28 May 2012 2100GMT/UTC

(Image: NHC NOAA)
BERYL A RAINMAKER
(Click image for source)

000
WTNT32 KNHC 282030
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

BERYL A RAINMAKER

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.8N 83.1W
ABOUT 10 MI…20 KM E OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM SW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 83.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/H.
A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
SHOULD BEGIN ON TUESDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CIRCULATION OF
BERYL OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF GEORGIA…SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH…45 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB…29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…ISOLATED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TODAY…
PARTICULARLY IN RAINBANDS.

STORM SURGE…TOTAL WATER LEVELS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS…INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS…ARE
STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES…FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #BERYL SOAKS PARTS OF N FLORIDA AND S GEORGIA…MORE RAIN TO COME – NHCAdv11

(Image: NHC NOAA)
TD Beryl
(Click image to visit source)

(Image: NWS FL)
TD Beryl
(Click image to visit source)

The remnants of Beryl will track northwest then north to northeast tonight across Southeast Georgia. The potential for locally heavy rainfall will exist through the night. A wind and lake wind advisory may be in effect for the early evening. A general decrease in winds is expected through the night. Isolated thunderstorms… however…will have the potential to produce strong wind gusts.

(Image: NWS FL)
JAX RADAR LOOP
(Click image to visit source)

000
WTNT32 KNHC 281450
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

BERYL SOAKING PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA…MORE
RAIN TO COME

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…30.5N 82.7W
ABOUT 60 MI…100 KM WNW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM ESE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA INCLUDING PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF RECENTLY DOWNGRADED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5
NORTH…LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY…FOLLOWED BY A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TODAY AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH…55
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY OVER WATER EAST FO THE CENTER. A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB…29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE OVER
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TODAY…PARTICULARLY
IN RAINBANDS.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A SUBSIDING STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE IS STILL CAUSING NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND
DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON…

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA…1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS…INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS…ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA.

RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES…FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI

US: #BERYL, WEAKENING BUT HVY RAIN. MOVING OVER N FLORIDA TODAY, INTO SE GEORGIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS FL)
TS Beryl
(Click image to visit NWS Jacksonville)

Tropical Storm Beryl will weaken to a depression tonight as it moves further inland across Southeast Georgia. Rain bands around the broad center will continue to periods of heavy rains and wind gusts to 40 mph. More flooding is possible at normally flood prone areas, especially in the areas of San Marco and Riverside. Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected tonight which could cause more localized flooding.

JAX RADAR

000
WTNT32 KNHC 281212
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
800 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

…CORRECTED FOR CURRENT LOCATION…

BERYL WEAKENING BUT HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.4N 82.5W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI…90 KM ESE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER GEORGIA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST. BERYL
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTH
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY…FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND
INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO RAINBANS
OVER WATER EAST OF THE CENTER. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND 140 MILES…220 KM…TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB…29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TODAY…PARTICULARLY IN RAINBANDS.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON…

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA…1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
THE REGION OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING CAN
VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS…INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS…ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA.

RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES…FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI

US: CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM #BERYL ABOUT TO MOVE INLAND – TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING INLAND – NHCAdv 9 28 May 2012 0349GMT/UTC

(Image: NHC NOAA)
TS Beryl
(Click image to visit source)

(Image: NWS Jacksonville, FL)
TS Beryl
(Click image for source)

JAX RADAR (Click image to visit source)

STRONG TROPICAL STORM BERYL will make landfall on the Northeast Florida coast this evening. The west side of the central core rainband has moved onshore and will continue to move inland this evening. Wind gusts, associated with this main band, will approach hurricane force along the immediate coast and up to 60 mph over inland areas. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet will be possible as the storm makes landfall this evening. Moderate flooding is possible at normally flood prone areas, especially in the areas of San Marco and Riverside, as the winds along the river shift to a southerly direction. As the center of the storm moves onshore, a several hour period of lighter winds and relatively dry conditions can be expected. The east side of the central core rainband will reach the coast after midnight, bringing with it another round of heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible overnight.

SHELTERS open at Legends Center at Soutel & Moncrief in NW Jacksonville, FL

000
WTNT32 KNHC 280244
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER�� 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL������ AL022012
1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL ABOUT TO MOVE INLAND…TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING INLAND

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…30.2N 81.1W
ABOUT 35 MI…60 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI…120 KM SSE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.� BERYL SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND AND
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM
FROM THE CENTER. HUGUENOT PARK NEAR JACKSONVILLE BEACH RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 53 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH A GUST OF 68
MPH…109 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB…29.32 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA…2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA…1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION…WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS…INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS…ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES…FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN

Infrared satellite image of TS Beryl at landfall tonight near Jacksonville Beach, FL via @stormchaser4850

US: #BERYL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALREADY ON THE COAST

000
WTNT32 KNHC 272348
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
800 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

BERYL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALREADY
ON THE COAST

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 75 MI…115 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI…155 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/H. A WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL…BERYL
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN
NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THE BERYL
IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 MPH…110 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL…BUT ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH WOULD MAKE BERYL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL…AND BERYL IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…
185 KM FROM THE CENTER. JACKSONVILLE BEACH PIER RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH…80 KM/H…WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH…95
KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB…29.29 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA…2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA…1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION…WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS…INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS…ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES…FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

US: #BERYL TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NR THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA 27 May 2012 2330GMT/UTC

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click image to visit NHC)

(Image: NWS Jacksonville, FL)
Tropical Storm BERYL
(Click image to visit source)


STRONG TROPICAL STORM BERYL will make landfall on the Northeast Florida coast this evening. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly as the central core rainband moves onshore between 7 and 10 pm. Wind gusts, associated with this main band, will approach hurricane force along the immediate coast at times this evening. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is anticipated near the time of landfall late this evening. Moderate flooding is possible at normally flood prone areas, especially in the areas of San Marco and Riverside, as the winds along the river shift to a southerly direction. Tropical Storm force winds will expand inland late this evening and continue through the night. Flooding rains will occur through the night with rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches expected overnight, with locally higher amounts possible.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 272042
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

BERYL TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.0N 80.3W
ABOUT 85 MI…140 KM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 110 MI…175 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB…29.41 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/H. A WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL…BERYL
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN
NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH…100 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL AND BERYL IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…
185 KM FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41012 LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES…80
KM…EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH…71 KM/H WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH…94
KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB…29.41 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA…2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA…1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION…WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS…INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS…ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES…FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN