UTC)

June 12, 2020 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Storm NURI 02W

“BUTCHOY” SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM LUZON (PAGASA)

The tropical cyclone now over the central part of the South China Sea is expected to intensify gradually, and will edge closer to the coast of western Guangdong in the next couple of days. (HKO)

TS 2002 (Nuri)
Issued at 13:05 UTC, 12 June 2020


<Analysis at 12 UTC, 12 June>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N16°50′ (16.8°)
	E117°10′ (117.2°)
Direction and speed of movement	W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure	998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area	ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 13 June>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N18°25′ (18.4°)
	E115°25′ (115.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure	996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle	65 km (35 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 13 June>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N20°00′ (20.0°)
	E113°35′ (113.6°)
Direction and speed of movement	NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure	992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle	95 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 14 June>
Intensity	–
	TD
Center position of probability circle	N23°30′ (23.5°)
	E110°20′ (110.3°)
Direction and speed of movement	NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure	1002 hPa
Radius of probability circle	165 km (90 NM)

Typhoon Message

20200612 20:56

National Meteorological Center No.1872

Analysis Time: Jun. 12th 12 UTC

Name of TC: NURI

Num. of TC: 2002

Current Location: 17.1°N 117.2°E

Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 18m/s（64.8km/h）

Central Pressure: 998hPa

Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 180km SE 150km SW 140km NW 120km

Forecast movement: next 24hrs NURI will moving NW at speed of 17km/h

xxxxx

Philippines

Tropical Depression”Butchoy”

Tropical Cyclone: ALERT

Issued at 11:00 am, 12 June 2020

(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 11:00 PM today or earlier.)

“BUTCHOY” SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM LUZON.

Tropical Depression BUTCHOY is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm within 24 hours. It is also expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight or tomorrow morning and is forecast to move generally northwestward towards southern China.
All tropical cyclone wind signals have been lifted. However, occasional gusts associated with the Southwest Monsoon may still be experienced over most of Northern and Central Luzon and the western section of Southern Luzon and Visayas.
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Today: Moderate to heavy rains over Zambales, Bataan, Pangasinan, the northern portion of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands, and Occidental Mindoro. Light to moderate with at times heavy monsoon rains over Metro Manila, Western Visayas, and the rest of Luzon.
Flooding and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. The public and disaster risk reduction and management offices are advised to take appropriate measures and monitor the Rainfall or Thunderstorm Advisories or Heavy Rainfall Warnings of PAGASA Regional Services Divisions.
Coastal Water Conditions
In the next 24 hours, moderate to very rough seas (1.5 to 4.5 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon especially over the seaboards of Ilocos Region, Zambales and Bataan due to BUTCHOY and the Southwest Monsoon. Sea travel is risky especially for those using small seacrafts.

Location of Eye/center

At 10:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression “BUTCHOY” was estimated based on all available data at 140 km West Northwest of Iba, Zambales or 165 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan (15.9 °N, 118.8 °E )

Movement

Moving West Northwestward at 25 km/h

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h

Forecast Position

24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 390 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR)(17.4°N, 116.7°E)
48 Hour(Sunday morning):915 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)(20.9°N, 113.2°E)

Wind Signal

No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next update to be incorporated in the 4 PM Public Weather Forecast and in the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2002 NURI (2002) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998
HPA
AT 16.8N 117.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 18.4N 115.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 20.0N 113.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 23.5N 110.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

CHINA

海事天气公报

制作：赵伟 2020 年 06 月 12 日 18 时

MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING

AT 1015UTC JUN.12 2020=

MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC JUN.12=

FCST VALID 0600UTC JUN.13=

WARNNING=

NIL=

SUMMARY=

TD(01) 1000HPA AT 16.5N 118.3E MVG WNW 17KMH

AND MAX WINDS 15M/S NEAR CENTER(SEAS UP TO 4.0M)

AND FCST FOR 130600UTC AT 18.9N 115.0E 990HPA

AND MAX WINDS 23M/S NEAR CENTER=

SW WINDS FROM 12 TO 14M/S GUSTS 16M/S SEAS UP TO

3.0M OVER SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=

SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO

2.5M OVER BASHI CHANNEL AND SEA EAST OF THE

PHILIPPINES

AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER BOHAI STRAIT AND

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF YELLOW SEA AND

SOUTHWESTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA AND HORIZONTAL

VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1KM=

HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM ALSO OVER

NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND KOREA STRAIT

AND SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN AND EAST CENTRAL SOUTH

CHINA SEA AND ANDAMAN SEA AND LAUT MALUKU=

FCST=

BOHAI SEA

S WINDS 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE SLT TO SMOOTH FOG

VIS POOR TO MOD=

BOHAI STRAIT

S WINDS BACK E 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE SMOOTH HVY

FOG VIS VERY POOR=

NORTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA

S WINDS BACK E 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE SMOOTH HVY

FOG VIS VERY POOR=

CENTRAL PART OF YELLOW SEA

E WINDS 04 TO 07M/S INCR 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO

12M/S SEA STATE SLT FOG BECMG HVY FOG VIS VERY

POOR=

SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA

E WINDS VEER SW 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE SLT TO MOD

MOD RAIN BECMG HVY RAIN VIS VERY POOR=

NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA

S WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S VEER SW

WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD

OVERCAST BECMG CLOUDY VIS POOR TO GOOD=

SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA

S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE

MOD OVERCAST VIS GOOD=

TAIWAN STRAIT

SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE

MOD OVERCAST VIS GOOD TO MOD=

SEA EAST OF TAIWAN

S WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO

12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST

VIS POOR=

BASHI CHANNEL

SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE

ROUGH OVERCAST VIS POOR TO MOD=

NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA

E WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S BECMG

CYCLONIC WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA

STATE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVERCAST VIS POOR TO

VERY=

EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA

CYCLONIC WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA

STATE ROUGH HVY RAIN VIS VERY POOR=

SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA

SW WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY BECMG

LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR=

SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA

SW WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY BECMG

LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR=

NORTHEASTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA

W WINDS BACK SW 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE SLT HVY FOG

VIS MOD TO POOR=

SOUTHWESTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA

S WINDS VEER SW 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE SLT HVY FOG

VIS POOR TO VERY=

KOREA STRAIT

SW WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO

12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT TO MOD FOG

BECMG RAINSTORM VIS VERY POOR=

SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN

SW WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO

12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN

BECMG OVERCAST VIS VERY POOR TO POOR=

SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES

SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO

10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST

VIS POOR TO MOD=

SEA SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES

E WINDS 04 TO 07M/S INCR 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO

12M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY VIS POOR TO MOD=

SEA WEST OF GUAM

E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS

POOR=

SEA SOUTHWEST OF THE PHILIPPINES

SE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE SLT CLOUDY VIS MOD

TO POOR=

SEA NORTHEAST OF INDONESIA

E WINDS 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE SLT TO MOD LIGHT

RAIN VIS POOR=

SEA SOUTHEAST OF INDONESIA

SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS

POOR=

SEA SOUTH OF JAWA

SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY VIS MOD=

SEA WEST OF SUMATERA

SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO

12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD TO ROUGH

CLOUDY VIS POOR TO MOD=

MALACCA STRAIT

SE WINDS VEER S 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE SLT CLOUDY

VIS POOR TO MOD=

SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE

SW WINDS 04 TO 07M/S BACK S WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA

STATE SMOOTH TO SLT LIGHT RAIN BECMG CLOUDY VIS

POOR=

SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM

W WINDS BACK SW 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE SLT LIGHT

RAIN VIS POOR=

GULF OF THAILAND

W WINDS 04 TO 07M/S INCR 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO

12M/S SEA STATE SLT CLOUDY BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS

POOR=

ANDAMAN SEA

SW WINDS VEER W 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY

BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR=

海事公报(北京，中央气象台)

2020年06月12日1015时(世界时)

06月12日0600时(世界时)海事分析

06月13日0600时(世界时)海事预报

海事分析

热带低压(01)位于北纬16.5度、东经118.3度，中心气压1000百帕，中心附近最大风速15米/秒，浪高4.0米，以17公里/小时的速度向西西北方向移动。

预计13日0600时（世界时）位于北纬18.9度、东经115.0度，中心气压990百帕，中心附近最大风速23米/秒。

日本以南洋面出现了6~7级、阵风8级的西南风，浪高3.0米；

巴士海峡、菲律宾以东洋面、南海东北部海域出现了6~7级、阵风8级的东南风，浪高2.5米；

渤海海峡、黄海北部和中部海域、日本海西南部海域出现了能见度不足1公里的大雾。

能见度不足10公里的海域还有东海北部海域、朝鲜海峡、日本以南洋面、南海中东部海域、安达曼海以及马鲁古海等海域。

海事预报

渤海

南风3~4级，海况轻浪转小浪，雾，能见度差转中等。

渤海海峡

南风转东风3~4级，海况小浪，大雾，能见度极差。

黄海北部海域

南风转东风3~4级，海况小浪，大雾，能见度极差。

黄海中部海域

东风3~4级增大至4~5级，海况轻浪，雾转大雾，能见度极差。

黄海南部海域

东风转西南风4~5级，海况轻浪转中浪，中雨转大雨，能见度极差。

东海北部海域

南风4~5级、阵风5~6级转西南风5~6级、阵风6~7级，海况中浪，阴转多云，能见度差转好。

东海南部海域

南风5~6级、阵风6~7级，海况中浪，阴，能见度好。

台湾海峡

东南风5~6级、阵风6~7级，海况中浪，阴，能见度好转中等。

台湾以东洋面

南风4~5级、阵风5~6级增大至5~6级、阵风6~7级，海况中浪，阴，能见度差。

巴士海峡

东南风6~7级、阵风7~8级，海况大浪，阴，能见度差转中等。

南海东北部海域

东风6~7级、阵风7~8级转旋转风7~8级、阵风8~9级，海况大浪转巨浪，阴，能见度差转极差。

南海中东部海域

旋转风7~8级、阵风8~9级，海况大浪，大雨，能见度极差。

南海西南部海域

西南风4~5级，海况中浪，多云转小雨，能见度差。

南海东南部海域

西南风4~5级，海况中浪，多云转小雨，能见度差。

日本海东北部海域

西风转西南风4~5级，海况轻浪，大雾，能见度中等转差。

日本海西南部海域

南风转西南风3~4级，海况轻浪，大雾，能见度差转极差。

朝鲜海峡

西南风4~5级、阵风5~6级增大至5~6级、阵风6~7级，海况轻浪转中浪，雾转暴雨，能见度极差。

日本以南洋面

西南风6~7级、阵风7~8级减小至5~6级、阵风6~7级，海况中浪，小雨转阴，能见度极差转差。

菲律宾东北洋面

东南风5~6级、阵风6~7级减小至4~5级、阵风5~6级，海况中浪，阴，能见度差转中等。

菲律宾东南洋面

东风3~4级增大至4~5级，海况中浪，多云，能见度差转中等。

关岛以西洋面

东风4~5级，海况中浪，小雨，能见度差。

菲律宾西南海域

东南风3~4级，海况轻浪，多云，能见度中等转差。

印度尼西亚东北海域

东风3~4级，海况轻浪转中浪，小雨，能见度差。

印度尼西亚东南海域

东南风4~5级，海况中浪，小雨，能见度差。

爪哇岛以南海域

东南风4~5级，海况中浪，多云，能见度中等。

苏门答腊以西洋面

东南风4~5级、阵风5~6级增大至5~6级、阵风6~7级，海况中浪转大浪，多云，能见度差转中等。

马六甲海峡

东南风转南风3~4级，海况轻浪，多云，能见度差转中等。

新加坡以东海域

西南风3~4级转南风4~5级，海况小浪转轻浪，小雨转多云，能见度差。

越南以南海域

西风转西南风4~5级，海况轻浪，小雨，能见度差。

泰国湾

西风3~4级增大至4~5级，海况轻浪，多云转小雨，能见度差。

安达曼海

西南风转西风3~4级，海况中浪，多云转小雨，能见度差。

Hong Kong

Bulletin issued at 21:30 HKT 12/Jun/2020

Tropical Cyclone Warning

Tropical depression over the central part of the South China Sea with central pressure 998 hectopascals was named Nuri. At 121200 UTC, it was centred within 90 nautical miles of one six point seven degrees north (16.7 N) one one seven point eight degrees east (117.8 E) and is forecast to move northwest at about 12 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 30 knots. Radius of over 2 metre waves 180 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 131200 UTC Two zero point three degrees north (20.3 N) One one four point three degrees east (114.3 E) Maximum winds 50 knots. Forecast position and intensity at 141200 UTC Two three point seven degrees north (23.7 N) One one one point one degrees east (111.1 E) Maximum winds 25 knots. Forecast position and intensity at 151200 UTC Dissipated over land.

The Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warnings for shipping are issued about one and a half hours after the time of observation. They incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions given in the hourly bulletins for public.

While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm.

Tropical Cyclone Track

Tropical Cyclone Warning | Track and Positions of Tropical Cyclones
Current Weather | Local Weather Forecast | 9-day Weather Forecast
South China Coastal Waters | Marine Forecast
This link will open in a new windowSevere Weather Information Centre

Philippines Tropical Cyclone Warning (link)

=========================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China / HongKong/ Macau/ Vietnam/ Philippines: Typhoon Mangkhut (26W) 161500Z 22.3N 111.0E, moving WNW 17kt (JTWC) – Updated 16 Sep 2019 1455Z (GMT/UTC)

September 16, 2018 by Goaty's News UK

Typhoon Mangkhut (26W)

MANGKHUT is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Mangkhut forecast to move west by north direction at the speed of 30 km/h and is predicted to make landfall in coastal areas from Zhuhai to Wuchuan, Guangdong, around afternoon to the night of September 16 – CMA

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 26W (Mangkhut) Warning #39 Final Warning
Issued at 16/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z — NEAR 22.1N 111.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 111.8E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 23.0N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 23.9N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 24.9N 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 25.8N 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
—
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 111.0E.
TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM WEST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A STILL EXPANSIVE SYSTEM THAT HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR ITS CENTER, WHICH IS NOW OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
161100Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWING THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
FROM YANGJIANG, 21 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST, READING 17 KTS AND 971 MB.
WITHOUT TERRAIN AND FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS, 971 MB WOULD SUPPORT A
69 KT SUSTAINED WINDSPEED. TY 26W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, ALLOWING IT TO
SUSTAIN SOME DEEP CONVECTION WHILE IT TRACKS OVER LAND. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 26W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER LAND IN
SOUTHERN CHINA. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER TAU 24, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE, WITH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND HWRF RECURVING THE WEAKENING CYCLONE FURTHER TO
THE NORTH AROUND THE STR AXIS, AND THE BULK OF THE MODELS CONTINUING
THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AND CALLS FOR 26W TO DISSIPATE AFTER
TAU 36. BASED ON INCREASING TRACK UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TAU 24,
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH THROUGH TAU 24 AND
FAIR AFTERWARD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

TY 1822 (Mangkhut)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 16 September 2018


<Analysis at 12 UTC, 16 September>
Scale	Large
Intensity	Strong
Center position	N22°10′ (22.2°)
	E111°35′ (111.6°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure	970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	ALL 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	E 700 km (375 NM)
	W 390 km (210 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 17 September>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N23°05′ (23.1°)
	E108°35′ (108.6°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure	990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle	70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 September>
Intensity	–
	TD
Center position of probability circle	N23°55′ (23.9°)
	E106°10′ (106.2°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure	1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle	110 km (60 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

@dost_pagasa

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY #4 – FINAL
FOR: TYPHOON “MANGKHUT” (FORMERLY “OMPONG”)

Issued at 11:00 AM, 16 September 2018
Typhoon “MANGKHUT” (formerly “Ompong”) maintains its strength as it moves closer to Southern China.
Location of Center (10:00 AM today)	The eye of Typhoon “MANGKHUT” was estimated based on all available data at 705 km West Northwest of Calayan, Cagayan (OUTSIDE PAR)(21.1°N,115.0°E)
Maximum Sustained Winds	145 km/h near the center
Gustiness	Up to 180 km/h
Movement	Northwest at 30 km/h
Forecast Positions and Intensities
Tomorrow Morning 17 September 2018	1,315 km West Northwest of Calayan, Cagayan (OUTSIDE PAR) (22.4°N, 109.3°E) Tropical Storm
Tuesday Morning 18 September 2018	1,835 km West Northwest of Calayan, Cagayan (OUTSIDE PAR) (24.1°N, 104.5°E) Tropical Depression
This typhoon no longer has a direct threat in any part of the country.
With this development, this is the final advisory for this disturbance. The next update on this weather disturbance will be incorporated in the Public Weather Forecast at 4 PM today.

HONG KONG

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

Updated at 21:45 (HkT)

TC Movements▲

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The No. 8 Southeast Gale or Storm Signal is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 63 kilometres per hour or more are expected from the southeast quarter.

At 10 p.m., Typhoon Mangkhut was centred about 310 kilometres west of Hong Kong (near 22.1 degrees north 111.2 degrees east) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 30 kilometres per hour into the inland area of southern China and weaken gradually.

Latest TC News

With Mangkhut departing, local winds are weakening gradually. However, many places are still being affected by gale or storm force winds. The No. 8 Southeast Gale or Storm Signal will remain in force for a period of time. Precautions should not yet be relaxed.

Rainbands of Mangkhut will still bring heavy squally showers to Hong Kong. Sea will be high with swells. It is expected that Mangkhut will weaken over inland areas of South China, local winds will moderate further on Monday.

Mangkhut today brought different degrees of damages to Hong Kong. There may be hidden danger. Members of the public should remain on the alert for assurance of personal safety.

In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Cheung Chau, Sha Chau and Sai Kung were 96, 94 and 74 kilometres per hour with maximum gusts 121, 117 and 91 kilometres per hour respectively.

Rainstorm Warning Bulletin

Updated at 18:50

Amber Rainstorm Warning Signal Special Announcement issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 6:50 p.m.

The Rainstorm Warning Signal is now Amber. This means that heavy rain has fallen or is expected to fall generally over Hong Kong, exceeding 30 millimetres in an hour, and is likely to continue.

There will be flooding in some low-lying and poorly drained areas. People who are likely to be affected should take necessary precautions to reduce their exposure to risk posed by the heavy rain and flooding.

Heavy rain may bring about flash floods. People should stay away from watercourses. People who are likely to be affected by flooding should take necessary precautions to avoid losses.

Red Warning of Typhoon

16-09-2018Source:National Meteorological Center

The National Meteorological Center continued to issue red warning of typhoon at 6:00 a.m. on September 16. This year’s 22th typhoon Mangkhut, (super typhoon scale), was centered over 420 km south of Taishan city, Guangdong at 5:00 a.m. this morning. China Sea (48m/s). The maximum wind intensity registered scale 15. The minimum air pressure registered 940 hPa. It is forecast to move west by north direction at the speed of 30 km/h and is predicted to make landfall in coastal areas from Zhuhai to Wuchuan, Guangdong, around afternoon to the night of September 16.

From September 16 to 17, central-northern South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, Bashi Channel, Taiwan Island, Qiongzhou Strait, coastal Fujian, coastal Guangdong, Pearl River Estuary, eastern Hainan Island, eastern Guangxi, Hong Kong, and Macao will be exposed to scale 7-10 gale. Heavy rain to rainstorm will batter Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao, southeastern Fujian, most portions of Guangxi, Hainan Island, southeastern Taiwan Island. (Sep. 16)

Editor: Liu Shuqiao

NCHMF VIETNAM

TYPHOON WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities
Local time (GMT+7)	Date	Position		Classification	Maximum sustained wind
19	Sunday, September 16, 2018	22	111.6	TY	133 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities
Local time (GMT+7)	Date	Position		Classification	Maximum sustained wind
19	Monday, September 17, 2018	23.4	106	td	46 km/hour
19	Tuesday, September 18, 2018	24	100.5	Low	28 km/hour

Notes for the picture:

Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts

Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts

Possible passing areas of TC center

Past positions of TC

Forecast positions of TC

Past positions of TD

Forecast positions of TD

*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:00 PM Sunday, September 16, 2018

TC TRACKS

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 16 Sep, 2018 6:00 GMT

Typhoon MANGKHUT is currently located near 21.6 N 113.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). MANGKHUT is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. MANGKHUT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Hong Kong
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Macau
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Ganzhou (25.7 N, 115.0 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Guiyang (26.6 N, 106.7 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Ha Giang (22.8 N, 104.9 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently
    Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 161200
WARNING 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1822 MANGKHUT (1822) 970 HPA
AT 22.2N 111.6E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 23.1N 108.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 23.9N 106.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
PHILIPPINES

WTPH20 RPMM 151200
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 14 FINAL
TYPHOON MANGKHUT (1822)
ANALYSIS 151200UTC
PSTN 19.2N 118.4E
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 80KT
64KT 030NM NE 030NM SE 030NM SW 030NM NW
50KT 100NM NE 080NM SE 080NM SW 100NM NW
30KT 230NM NE 200NM SE 200NM SW 230NM NW
FORECAST 24H 161200UTC
PSTN 21.7N 112.0E
CATE TYPHOON
FORECAST 48H 171200UTC
PSTN 23.2N 106.2E
CATE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
FINAL WARNING
PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND
ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION=
HONG KONG

Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

Bulletin issued at 21:30 HKT 16/Sep/2018
Tropical Cyclone Warning

Severe Typhoon Mangkhut (1822) has weakened into a Typhoon with central pressure 960 hectopascals. At 161200 UTC, it was centred within 60 nautical miles of two two point zero degrees north (22.0 N) one one one point nine degrees east (111.9 E) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 16 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 80 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 270 nautical miles over eastern semicircle, 225 nautical miles elsewhere.
Radius of over 47 knot winds 120 nautical miles.
Radius of over 63 knot winds 60 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 330 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 171200 UTC
Two three point seven degrees north (23.7 N)
One zero six point zero degrees east (106.0 E)
Maximum winds 30 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 181200 UTC
Dissipated over land.
CHINA

WWCI50 BABJ 160000
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 0330UTC SEP.16 2018=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000UTC SEP.16=
FCST VALID 0000UTC SEP.17=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
STY MANGKHUT 1822(1822) 940HPA AT 20.6N 115.6E
MVG WNW 35KMH AND MAX WINDS 50M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 12.0M)
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
500KM NE
450KM SE
400KM SW
350KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
200KM NE
250KM SE
180KM SW
120KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 64KTS WINDS
60KM NE
80KM SE
80KM SW
60KM NW
AND FCST FOR 170000UTC AT 23.0N 108.9E 995HPA
AND MAX WINDS 20M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
NE/E WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUSTS 24M/S SEAS UP TO
4.0M OVER SOUTHWESTERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND TAIWAN STRAIT=
WINDS FROM 26 TO 38M/S GUSTS 40 TO 48M/S SEAS UP
TO 10.0M OVER NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA
SEA=
WINDS FROM 18 TO 22M/S GUSTS 25 TO 30M/S SEAS UP
TO 6.0M OVER EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW/W WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.5M OVER WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA AND
SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVE ANDAMAN
SEA AND MALACCA STRAIT AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
AND SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT JAWA AND SEA SOUTH OF
JAWA AND MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT SULAWESI AND
LAUT MALUKU AND LAUT BANDA=
FCST=
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
NE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN
VIS MOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE WINDS VEER S 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO MOD
OVERCAST BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE ROUGH OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
TAIWAN STRAIT
SE WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE VERY ROUGH TO
ROUGH OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE VERY ROUGH TO
ROUGH HVY RAIN BECMG OVERCAST VIS MOD TO GOOD=
BASHI CHANNEL
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
VERY ROUGH TO ROUGH OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
BEIBU GULF
NW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SW
WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S SEA STATE MOD
OVERCAST BECMG RAINSTORM VIS GOOD TO POOR=
QIONGZHOU STRAIT
W WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S BACK SW
WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD
RAINSTORM VIS POOR=
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 32 TO 41M/S GUSTS 37 TO 46M/S BACK S
WINDS 25 TO 32M/S GUSTS 29 TO 36M/S SEA STATE
HIGH TO VERY ROUGH RAINSTORM BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS
POOR TO MOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 32 TO 41M/S GUSTS 37 TO 46M/S BACK SE
WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S SEA STATE
VERY HIGH TO VERY ROUGH RAINSTORM BECMG LIGHT
RAIN VIS POOR TO MOD=
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS BACK S 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE VERY ROUGH TO ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE VERY ROUGH TO
ROUGH CLOUDY BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY
VIS GOOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS BACK S 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN
W WINDS 04 TO 07M/S INCR 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO
12M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO MOD OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
SE WINDS BACK NE 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE ROUGH
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF BONIN ISLANDS
E WINDS 04 TO 07M/S INCR 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO
12M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO MOD OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK NE
WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH TO MOD OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
NE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO MOD
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
NE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S VEER E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA
STATE MOD CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAWA
SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY
VIS GOOD=
MALACCA STRAIT
W WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
GULF OF THAILAND
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
ANDAMAN SEA
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S VEER SW
WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD
TO ROUGH HVY RAIN VIS MOD=

=============================================================================

Hong Kong/ China/ South China Sea: Tropical Depression 1816 09/1500Z 18.1°N 111.4°E, next 24hrs will move NNW at speed of 12km/h (~6.47kt) 998hPa (CMA) – Published 09 Aug 2018 1520Z (GMT/UTC)

August 9, 2018 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Depression 1816

Guangdong Hainan Island China Beware!

Typhoon Message

20180809 23:12

National Meteorological Center No.2396

Analysis Time: Aug. 09th 15 UTC

Name of TC: TD

Current Location: 18.1°N 111.4°E

Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 15m/s（54km/h）

Central Pressure: 998hPa

Forecast movement: next 24hrs will moving NNW at speed of 12km/h

Tropical Depression
at 22:00 HKT 09 August 2018

Position: 18.3 N, 111.9 E (about 500 km south-southwest of Hong Kong)

Maximum sustained wind near centre: 45 km/h

The tropical cyclone over the northern part of the South China Sea will move in the general direction towards the vicinity of the coast of western Guangdong to Hainan Island in the next couple of days.

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time	Position		Classification	Maximum sustained wind near centre
20:00 HKT 10 August 2018	20.3 N	111.5 E	Tropical Depression	55 km/h
20:00 HKT 11 August 2018	21.3 N	111.4 E	Tropical Storm	65 km/h
20:00 HKT 12 August 2018	21.7 N	110.6 E	Tropical Depression	55 km/h
20:00 HKT 13 August 2018	22.1 N	108.8 E	Tropical Depression	45 km/h
20:00 HKT 14 August 2018	21.8 N	106.2 E	Low Pressure Area	40 km/h

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

The symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
The tropical cyclone symbol in different colours are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure).

While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm. The yellow shaded area on the map indicates the probable area within which the tropical cyclone will fall with a probability of 70% (‘Potential Track Area’). Literally, it means that in 10 times of track forecast for similar situations, the tropical cyclone will be centred within the indicated area in about 7 times. The area grows as the forecast hour increases. It will be particularly larger beyond 72 hours and is indicated with lighter shadings on the map. The size in terms of radius of the ‘Potential Track Area’ corresponding to different forecast hours are determined from the error statistics of the forecasts issued in past years and are as shown in the following table:

Analysed Position	30 km
24-hour forecast position	125 km
48-hour forecast position	225 km
72-hour forecast position	325 km
96-hour forecast position	400 km
120-hour forecast position	500 km

The analysed tropical cyclone position (the symbol ) is based on Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly bulletin for public derived from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions.
The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are updated every hour. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong.
The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

Latest TC News

In the past few hours, the movement of the tropical depression was rather slow and kept a distance from Hong Kong.

According to the present forecast track, the chance of issuing the Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 is not high before dawn on Friday. Members of the public should take note of the latest weather situation before departing home in the morning.

The outer rain bands of the tropical depression will affect the coast of Guangdong on Friday and Saturday. Locally, there will be squally showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be occasionally strong over offshore waters and on high ground.

Precautions▲

(Precautionary Announcements with No. 1 Signal)

1. Every precaution should be taken. Objects likely to be blown away should be secured or taken indoors. Check if all windows and doors can be securely locked.

2. Drains should be cleared of leaves and rubbish. People in low-lying areas should take precautions against flooding.

3. Those who have duties during a tropical cyclone should now remain on call.

4. There may be swells, you are advised to stay away from the shoreline.

5. Listen to radio, watch TV or browse the Hong Kong Observatory’s website and mobile app for the latest information on the tropical cyclone.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Tropical Cyclone Warning (HKO)

At 091200 UTC, the tropical depression over the northern part of South China Sea with central pressure 998 hectopascals was centred within 90 nautical miles of one eight point one degrees north (18.1 N) one one one point nine degrees east (111.9 E) and is forecast to move north-northwest at about 6 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 25 knots.

Radius of over 2 metre waves 60 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 101200 UTC
Two zero point three degrees north (20.3 N)
One one one point five degrees east (111.5 E)
Maximum winds 30 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 111200 UTC
Two one point three degrees north (21.3 N)
One one one point four degrees east (111.4 E)
Maximum winds 35 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 121200 UTC
Two one point seven degrees north (21.7 N)
One one zero point six degrees east (110.6 E)
Maximum winds 30 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 131200 UTC
Two two point one degrees north (22.1 N)
One zero eight point eight degrees east (108.8 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 141200 UTC
Dissipated over land.

While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm.

Tropical Cyclone Track

WWHK82 VHHH 091200
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER SOUTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
(SCS).
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) OVER NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA(SCS): NIL.
SYNOPSIS (091200UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
AT 091200UTC, TD WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HPA AND MAXIMUM
WINDS 25 KT WAS CENTERED WITHIN 90 NM OF 18.1N 111.9E AND
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNW AT ABOUT 6 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 101200UTC: 20.3N, 111.5E
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF THE SCS.
SWELL SW 3 M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF THE SCS.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) WITHIN 210 NM FROM CENTRE OF TD.
SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE SCS AND SEAS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

=============================================================================

China: Severe Tropical Storm Hato 15W 23/1200Z nr 22.7N 115.3E, moving WNW 30 km/h (16 kt) (JMA) – Updated 23 Aug 2017 1332z (GMT/UTC)

August 23, 2017 by Goaty's News UK

Typhoon Hato 15W downgraded to Severe Tropical Storm by JMA

JAPAN MET

1713-00 jma 23

STS 1713 (Hato)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 23 August 2017


<Analysis at 12 UTC, 23 August>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N22°40′ (22.7°)
	E111°00′ (111.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure	985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area	S 330 km (180 NM)
	N 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 24 August>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N23°20′ (23.3°)
	E107°55′ (107.9°)
Direction and speed of movement	W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure	996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle	70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 24 August>
Intensity	–
	TD
Center position of probability circle	N23°40′ (23.7°)
	E104°30′ (104.5°)
Direction and speed of movement	W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure	1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle	110 km (60 NM)

Typhoon Message

20170823 20:26

National Meteorological Center No.680

Analysis Time: Aug. 23th 12 UTC

Name of TC: HATO

Num. of TC: 1713

Current Location: 22.7°N 110.9°E

Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 25m/s（90km/h）

Central Pressure: 985hPa

Forecast movement: next 24hrs HATO will moving WNW at speed of 28km/h

Currently on land

Red Warning of Typhoon

23-08-2017Source:National Meteorological Center

The National Meteorological Center issued red warning of typhoon at 6:00 p.m. on August 23.

At 5:00 p.m. today, Typhoon Hato, this year’s 13th typhoon, centered northern parts of the South China Sea (21.3N, 115.2E), about 200 kilometers away from southeastern Zhuhai city, Guangdong province. The maximum wind near the typhoon center hit scale 13 (40m/s).

It is forecasted to move toward northwest at a speed of 25 kilometers per hour with a strengthening force. At noon today, it is predicted to make landfall in Guangdong coast ranging from Zhuhai City to Yangjiang City (40~48 m/s, scale 13~15, typhoon level or severe typhoon level). After that Hato will continue to march toward west with a shrinking strength and slip into Guangxi on the evening of August 23 (30~33 m/s, scale 11~12, severe tropical storm or typhoon level).

Gale forecast: From August 23 to 24, in portions of Taiwan Strait, northern parts of the South China Sea, Qiongzhou Strait, Beibu Gulf, Guangdong coast, southern Fujian coast, eastern and northern Hainan coast, Guangxi coast, southern Guangdong coast, and eastern Guangxi, scale 7~9 gale is forecasted. Pearl River Estuary will be battered by scale 11~13 gale. Furthermore, the sea or land areas on the way of the typhoon center are expected to be hammered by scale 14~15 gale or scale 16~17 gust.

Precipitation forecast: From August 23 to 24, in some certain locations of most of Guangxi, western and southern Guangdong, northern Hainan Island, southern Fujian coast, and western Taiwan, heavy rain or rainstorm is forecasted. Furthermore, portions of southeastern Guangxi, southwestern Guangdong, and northeastern Hainan Island will be exposed to heavy rainstorm or extraordinary rainstorm (250~350 mm). (August 23)

Editor Wu Peng

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 23 Aug, 2017 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Typhoon HATO is currently located near 22.2 N 112.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). HATO is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. HATO is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Macau
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11/ TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 231200

WTJP21 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1713 HATO (1713) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 985
HPA
AT 22.7N 111.0E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 23.3N 107.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 23.7N 104.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South China Sea/ China: Tropical Storm Kujira (08W) 21/1200Z at 16.6N 111.3E almost stationary (JMA) – Updated 210615 1315z (GMT/UTC)

June 21, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Storm Kujira 08W
(upgraded by JMA from TD at 09:50 UTC 21 June 2015)

Hainan Island and western Guangdong in China beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. – JTWC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TS 1508 (KUJIRA)
Issued at 09:50 UTC, 21 June 2015

<Analyses at 21/09 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N16°25′(16.4°)
	E111°20′(111.3°)
Direction and speed of movement	Almost stationary
Central pressure	994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more	ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 22/09 UTC>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N18°40′(18.7°)
	E111°10′(111.2°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure	990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle	160km(85NM)
<Forecast for 23/06 UTC>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N20°35′(20.6°)
	E110°10′(110.2°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure	992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle	200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 24/06 UTC>
Intensity	–
	TD
Center position of probability circle	N22°55′(22.9°)
	E109°20′(109.3°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure	998hPa
Radius of probability circle	300km(160NM)

Tropical Depression KUJIRA
at 17:00 HKT 21 June 2015

Position: 16.5 N, 111.3 E (about 710 km south-southwest of Hong Kong)

Maximum sustained wind near centre: 55 km/h

Tropical Depression Kujira will intensify slightly, and move north in the general direction of Hainan Island and western Guangdong in the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Track at 17:00 HKT 21 June 2015

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time	Position		Classification	Maximum sustained wind near centre
17:00 HKT 22 June 2015	19.0 N	111.1 E	Tropical Storm	75 km/h
17:00 HKT 23 June 2015	21.2 N	110.1 E	Tropical Storm	65 km/h
17:00 HKT 24 June 2015	23.7 N	108.8 E	Tropical Depression	45 km/h
17:00 HKT 25 June 2015	25.9 N	107.4 E	Low Pressure Area	40 km/h

Download 256km Radar from HKO

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 08W (Kujira) Warning #04
Issued at 21/0900Z

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z — NEAR 16.4N 111.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 111.5E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 17.4N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 18.8N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z — 20.2N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 21.4N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 23.3N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
—
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 111.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 186 NM
EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 210600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 210600.
WARNING VALID 220600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 39N 142E 42N 141E
42N 144E 47N 152E 53N 160E 60N 164E 60N 180E 30N 180E 30N 160E 30N
140E 37N 152E 39N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 32N 140E EAST 20 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 52N 152E NE 15 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 38N 161E ENE 20 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 34N 124E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 40N 134E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 57N 141E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 37N 149E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 48N 168E NE 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 57N 171E ENE 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N 110E TO 28N 116E 26N 126E 28N 135E 32N 140E
31N 147E 30N 156E 33N 163E 38N 167E 38N 171E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1508 KUJIRA (1508) 996 HPA AT 16.4N 111.4E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Hong Kong Observatory

Bulletin issued at 18:30 HKT 21/Jun/2015
Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 210900 UTC, Tropical Depression Kujira (1508) with central pressure 992 hectopascals was centred within 60 nautical miles of one six point five degrees north (16.5 N) one one one point three degrees east (111.3 E) and is forecast to move north at about 6 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 30 knots.

Radius of over 2 metre waves 120 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 220900 UTC
One nine point zero degrees north (19.0 N)
One one one point one degrees east (111.1 E)
Maximum winds 40 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 230900 UTC
Two one point two degrees north (21.2 N)
One one zero point one degrees east (110.1 E)
Maximum winds 35 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 240900 UTC
Two three point seven degrees north (23.7 N)
One zero eight point eight degrees east (108.8 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 250900 UTC
Dissipated over land.

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 211200
WARNING 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1508 KUJIRA (1508) 992 HPA
AT 16.6N 111.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 19.2N 111.2E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 21.5N 110.1E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 23.2N 108.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Other warnings can be found at

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

China: Storms in Guangdong Province leave at least 15 dead, at least 14 injured and 4 missing; more rain due – 020414 1455z

April 2, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

（向下滾動為中國譯）(Scroll down for Chinese translation)

The death toll from rainstorms in south China’s Guangdong Province has risen to 15, while four other people remained missing, local authorities said on Wednesday.

Four more people were confirmed to have died on Tuesday, the provincial bureau of civil affairs said in a statement. Days of torrential rain have also left at least 14 injured.

A boat carrying five people capsized near the coast in Shenzhen, which borders Hong Kong. Two women on board went missing.

One woman was found dead on Tuesday. Rescuers are still searching for the other woman. After a brief respite on Tuesday, heavy rain, hailstorms and strong gales returned to batter the province on Wednesday and are forecast for two more days, according to the local meteorological center.

Rain and hailstorms from Saturday to Monday affected 68,800 residents in 69 townships in seven cities and forced the relocation of another 3,902 locals by Tuesday, said the provincial bureau of civil affairs.

The disasters have toppled 71 houses and severely damaged another 5,719, the bureau said, adding they have also caused direct economic losses of 199 million yuan (32 million U.S. dollars).

Local authorities have sent funds, clothes and quilts to residents in flooded areas.
Wednesday, 02 April, 2014 at 13:37 (01:37 PM) UTC RSOE

Heavy rain and giant hailstones batter Southern China

(Video credit: Josept Aron)

Published on Apr 1, 2014

At least 21 people have died and four are reported missing after a weekend of heavy rainfall in south China. This is according to China’s Ministry of Civil A.

2 Apr 2014:

A trough of low pressure is bringing rain and thunderstorms to the coastal areas of Guangdong. Locally, there were rain and thunderstorms in the evening. More than 10 millimetres of rainfall were recorded over the northeastern part of the New Territories.

Weather forecast for tonight and tomorrow

Cloudy with rain and squally thunderstorms. Rain will be heavy at times. Temperatures will range between 19 and 21 degrees. Moderate east to northeasterly winds, fresh at first.

Outlook : Becoming bright on Friday and Saturday. There will be thundery showers again early next week.

Chinese:

中國：廣東省風暴保留至少15人死亡，至少14人受傷， 4人失踪，更因雨 – 020414 1455z
2014年4月2日由Goaty新聞

從中國南部的廣東省暴雨造成的死亡人數已上升至15 ，而其他四人仍然失踪，當地政府在星期三說。

四個越來越多的人被證實在週二已經死亡，民政省局在一份聲明中說。連日暴雨還造成至少14人受傷。

一艘載有五人在深圳，毗鄰香港的傾覆海岸附近。兩個女人在船上失踪。

一名女子被發現死在週二。救援人員仍在尋找其他的女人。週二短暫的喘息之後，大雨，冰雹和強風回到連擊全省在週三和兩天預計，根據當地的氣象中心。

雨和冰雹從週六到週一受影響的68,800居民中69個鄉鎮七個城市和強迫的另一個3,902當地人週二搬遷，說民政省局。

在災害倒塌房屋71也嚴重損害另一個5,719 ，局裡補充說，他們還造成1.99億元（32億美元）的直接經濟損失。

地方當局已派出基金，衣服和被子給災區居民。
週三， 2014年4月2日13:37 （下午1時37分） UTC RSOE
大雨和冰雹巨人麵糊中國南方

（視頻來源： Josept阿隆）

發表於2014年4月1日

至少有21人死亡和四個報告後，強降雨在中國南方的一個週末失踪。這是根據中國的民政部A的

香港天文台

2014年4月2日：

的低壓槽帶來雷雨廣東的沿海地區。在當地，有雨和雷暴在晚上。被記錄在新界東北部超過10毫米雨量。

今晚及明日天氣預測

多雲有雨及狂風雷暴。雨水將雨勢有時頗大。氣溫將19和21度之間的範圍。中度東到東北風，新鮮在第一。

展望：上週五和週六成為光明的。下週初將有雷雨了。

China: Storms, floods & landslides in Guangdong, Fujian and Jiangxi leave 33 dead, 12 missing. Millions affected. More rain forecast – 170513 1200z

May 17, 2013 by Goaty's News UK

Chinese authorities say rainstorms that battered southern China this week have killed 33 people and left 12 people missing.

The Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs website says at least nine provinces have had storms and some flooding and landslides since Tuesday.
It says Guangdong province has been hit the hardest with 19 deaths and 11 missing people.
Guangdong‘s weather service said some areas received more than 8 inches (21 centimeters) of rain in nine hours on Thursday. It forecasts more rain in the coming days and warns of mudslides.
Friday, 17 May, 2013 at 04:21 (04:21 AM) UTC RSOE

Satellite

(Image: i.weather.com.cn) Satellite Image – China (correct at time of publishing)

Radar

(Image: i.weather.com.cn) China Radar Image (correct at time of publishing)

(Image: i.weather.com.cn) Beijing Radar Image (correct at time of publishing)

Other Reports

Storms hit southern China, 33 killed

(Video credit:hitvideohaber001 )

Published on 17 May 2013

Thirty-three people have been killed and 12 others are reported missing in the latest round of rain and hailstorms that have swept southern China.Heavy rain has hit 10 provinces in southern China, including Guangdong, Fujian and Jiangxi, affecting millions of people. In the worst-hit Guangdong province, rainstorms battered five cities, including the provincial capital Guangzhou, causing 19 deaths and leaving 11 missing.A total of 650 thousand people in the province have been affected. Rainstorms have triggered flooding and landslides in some places.
The Ministry of Civil Affairs and the National Committee for Disaster Reduction have initiated a level-four disaster relief response.

Wild Weather Across Southern China

Published on May 16, 2013 by robspeta

“Flooding rains hit China�s Hunan Province Tuesday morning, killing one person and damaging 9,300 hectares of farmland in 20 villages.

East Asia Flood Threat

The downpour triggered landslides in Zhujiapu Village of Hanshou resulting in the death of a 79 year old women. The town tallied 164mm of rainfall in one day.

The rain also toppled down 78 residential houses and forced more than 800 villagers to evacuate.

Furthermore accumalations approaching up to 157 millimeters in three hours, raised the water level of Tie River of Hejiaqiao of Liling City of the province late Tuesday.

Heavy rain also hit Jiujiang County of east China�s Jiangxi Province Wednesday, causing a direct economic loss of 200,000 yuan with 3,000 hectares of cotton and 666 hectares of vegetable fields being affected.

In downtown Nanchang, the capital city of Jiangxi the rainfall also neared the 200mm mark for Wednesday in to Thursday.

On Tuesday residents of Hubei province were hit hard following a Tornado that damaged 20 homes and left 10 residents injured.

Needless to say but we will say it anyways, the weather has impacted residents here and unfortunately with the rainy season underway and now in full force very little as far as relief is in the forecast. A short break on Friday will be observed but then soon after the rains will start to spark back up.” – westernpacificweather.com

TROPICAL STORM #KAI-TAK(#HELEN) #China and #Vietnam be aware – Updated 18 Aug 2012 1400GMT/UTC

August 18, 2012 by Goaty's News UK

(Image: wunderground.com)
Five Day Forecast Map
(Click image for source)

(Image: usno.navy.mil/)
US Navy Tropical Storm 14W (Kai-tak) Warning #09 Aug 14, 2012
(Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com)
Storm-Centered Satellite Image
(Click image for source)

Philippines Doppler Radar (link)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Aug, 2012 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (14W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Laos
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    China
        probability for TS is 60% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
probability for TS is 95% currently
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for TS is 85% currently
Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Tây Thái Bình Dương: Cảnh báo bão phát hành lúc 17 tháng tám, 2012 18: 00 GMT (cảnh báo cuối cùng)

Tropical Storm KAI TAK (14W) dự báo để tấn công đất để likelihood(s) sau time(s) cho dẫn:
Màu vàng thông báo Country(s) hoặc Province(s)
Việt Nam
xác suất cho CAT 1 trở lên là 25% hiện nay
xác suất cho TS là 95% hiện nay
Lào
xác suất cho TS là 65% trong vòng 12 giờ
Trung Quốc
xác suất cho TS là 60% hiện nay
Vàng báo City(s) và Town(s)
Hanoi (21,0 N, 105.8 E)
xác suất cho CAT 1 trở lên là 25% hiện nay
xác suất cho TS là 95% hiện nay
Thái bình (20,5 N, 106,3 E)
xác suất cho TS là 85% hiện nay
Yên Bái (21,7 N, 104,9 E)
xác suất cho TS là 65% trong vòng 12 giờ

Lưu ý rằng
Màu vàng Alert (cao) là CAT 1 hoặc cao hơn để giữa 10% và 30% xác suất, hoặc TS để ở trên 50% xác suất.
CAT 1 có nghĩa là bão mạnh gió của ít 74 mph, 119 km/h hay 64 knot 1-phút duy trì.
TS có nghĩa là sức mạnh bão nhiệt đới gió của ít 39 mph, 63 km/h hay 34 knot 1-phút duy trì.

Đối với thông tin dự đồ họa và biết thêm chi tiết vui lòng truy cập http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
西北太平洋：風暴警報發出在 2012 年 8 月 17 日 18:00 GMT （最後警告）

熱帶風暴啟德 (14W) 預計將在給定的鉛時間罷工土地給下面的 likelihood(s)：
黃色警報國家或 Province(s)
越南
貓 1 或以上的概率是目前的 25 %
ts 的概率是 95%目前
老撾
ts 的概率是 65%在 12 小時內
中國
ts 的概率是 60%目前
黃色警報 City(s) 和 Town(s)
河內 (21.0 N，105.8 E)
貓 1 或以上的概率是目前的 25 %
ts 的概率是 95%目前
太平省 (20.5 N，106.3 E)
TS 概率目前是 85 %
日元白 (21.7 N，104.9 E)
ts 的概率是 65%在 12 小時內

請注意，
黃色警報 (高架) 是貓 1 或以上為 10%和 30%的概率或到概率 50%以上的 TS 之間。
貓 1 意味著至少 74 英里每小時，每小時 119 公里或 64 海裡，1 分鐘持續颱風強度風。
TS 意味著至少 39 英里每小時，每小時 63 公里或 34 海裡/小時 1 分鐘持續的熱帶風暴強度風。

有關圖形預測的資訊和進一步的詳細資訊，請訪問 http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

TS KAI-TAK [HELEN] – Final Update

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (HELEN) UPDATE NUMBER 017 **FINAL**
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Sat 18 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012) KAI-TAK (HELEN) downgraded to a Tropical Storm after making landfall over Northern Vietnam. The storm passed over Hanoi City early this morning. Tropical Storm Conditions will continue across the area w/ improving weather later today or Sunday.

Meanwhile, a new strong Tropical Disturbance, tagged 96W (LPA) is rapidly forming over the North Philippine Sea, ENE of Extreme Northern Luzon…and was located about 335 km ESE of Basco, Batanes or 367 km NE of Santa Ana, Cagayan (20.2N 125.2E)…drifting South slowly…with winds of 35 km/hr. A new page will be created on this new system later today if it develops into a Tropical Cyclone.

*This is the last and final update on Kai-tak (Helen).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

TYPHOON2000 (SỨ) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM KAI TAK (HELEN) CẬP NHẬT SỐ 017 ** FINAL **
5: 00 AM PhT (vào 21: 00 GMT) thứ Bảy 18 tháng tám 2012
Nguồn: Sứ phân tích/JTWC cảnh báo/Dynamic mô hình/SatFixes
Nhìn xem: Sứ lưu trữ Cập Nhật TC (2004-2012) KAI TAK (HELEN) hạ cấp thành một bão nhiệt đới sau khi rơi xuống đất tại miền bắc Việt Nam. Cơn bão thông qua thành phố Hà Nội sáng sớm này. Fire Weather Conditions will continue across the area w / cải thiện tiết sau ngày hôm nay hoặc chủ nhật.

Trong khi đó, một xáo trộn nhiệt đới mạnh mới, dán 96W (LPA) nhanh chóng hình thành trên biển bắc của Philippine, Bắc cực Bắc Luzon… và nằm ở khoảng 335 km tây bắc của Basco, Batanes hoặc 367 km NE của Santa Ana, Cagayan (20.2N 125.2E)… trôi Nam chậm… với gió của 35 km/giờ. Một trang mới sẽ được tạo ra trên hệ thống này mới sau ngày hôm nay nếu nó phát triển thành một Severe.

* Đây là cuối cùng và cuối cùng Cập Nhật trên Kai tak (Helen).

Không sử dụng điều này để quyết định cuộc sống hay chết. Watch này là dành cho mục đích thông tin bổ sung. Vui lòng tham khảo của đất nước của bạn chính thức tiết Cục Cảnh báo địa phương, from & bản tin.

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) 熱帶氣旋更新
熱帶風暴啟德（海倫）更新號 017 ** 決賽 **
5:0 上午苯妥英鈉（格林尼治標準時間 21:00) 星期六 2012 年 8 月 18 日
資料來源： T2K 分析/JTWC 警告/動態模型/SatFixes
查看: T2K TC 更新檔案（2004年-2012 年) 啟德（海倫) 在越南北部登陸後降至一個熱帶風暴。這場風暴今早掠過河內市。熱帶風暴條件將會繼續過改善天氣今天晚些時候或星期天帶區。

新強熱帶擾動，與此同時，標記 96W (LPA) 迅速形成對北菲律賓海，極端北呂宋烯 … … 和所在的聖安娜、卡加延約 335 公里 ESE 的巴斯科、巴坦或 367 公里 NE (20.2N 125.2E) … … 南慢慢地 … …，風速為每小時 35 公里。新的一頁將創建此新的系統上今天晚些時候如果它發展成為一個熱帶氣旋。

＊這是啟德（海倫）的最後更新。

請不要使用此生或死的決定。這個諮詢是額外的資訊僅用於目的。請參閱本地警告、通報、公告貴國的官方天氣機構。

http://thenhbushmantyphoon.blogspot.co.uk

Philippines

Emergency contact information

NDRMCC Hotlines: (02) 911-1406, (02) 912-2665, (02) 912-5668; +63917-8916322
Red Cross: If you need to be rescued, call 143 and 527-0000. Put a white blanket outside your house so rescuers can locate where you are.
MMDA: 8820925
Philippine Coast Guard: 0917-PCGDOTC (0917-7243682)
Navotas Rescue: 281-8602 / 281-4174 / 281-8573
Valenzuela City: 292-1405
Malabon: 281-4999
Caloocan: 288-8811 loc 2295
Navotas: 281-1111

Resources

Updated emergency hotlines via @govph: #PHalerts #RescuePH http://pic.twitter.com/Bp5Zjy8N

2 hash tags to remember are: #rescuePH for rescue operations & #reliefPH for relief operations

People needing help may text @RescuePH at 09051456217 | 09293510068 | 09323608563. #RescuePH #PHalerts (via @pcdspo)

SUCCESSFUL RESCUES may be reported using this unified hashtag #SAFENOW

Official government alerts are tagged with #PHalert.

Hashtags Help Coordinate Relief Efforts in Philippine Floods

STATUS OF MONITORED MAJOR RESERVOIRS IN LUZON: http://t.co/YPKIjiQK

Peoplefinder: http://www.google.org/personfinder/2012-08-philippines-flood

Google Crisis Response – P hilippines Flood Aug 2012

dost_pagasa (Philippines Weather Bureau):

Philippines Doppler Radar (link)

Tropical Cyclone Update
As of today, 17 August 2012, there is no tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Scroll to bottom for Problems just beginning for Philippines poor

————————————————————————————————

Local Warning of Tropical Cyclone

Tropical cyclone warnings
Here is the latest tropical cyclone advisory bulletin issued by the Macau Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau.

There is no tropical cyclone warning.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Hong Kong

There is no tropical cyclone warning signal.

沒有熱帶氣旋警告信號。

TAIWAN

Heavy Rain Advisory

1. Hsinchu City-Hsinchu County Plain Area-

…Heavy Rain Advisory in effect tonight (08/18)…

—— Summary of Warning Areas ——
[Heavy Rain Advisory areas]
Hsinchu City-Hsinchu County Plain Area-

—- Observed Cumulative Rainfall —-

* Stations with 24H accumulated rainfall above 50mm
2012/08/17 21:20 PM ~ 2012/08/18 21:20 PM

-Heavy Rain (50mm):
Miaoli County Sanyi Township: 117.5 mm,
Pingtung County Pingtung City: 88.0 mm,
Pingtung County Yanpu Township: 76.5 mm,
Hsinchu County Xiangshan District: 73.5 mm,
Pingtung County Linluo Township: 69.5 mm,
Miaoli County Yuanli Township: 61.5 mm,
Miaoli County Zaoqiao Township: 60.5 mm,
Tainan City Guiren District: 55.0 mm,
Tainan City Zuozhen District: 54.0 mm,

重雨諮詢

1.新竹市新竹縣平原區-

…重雨諮詢作用今晚 (08/18) … …

—-警告領域 — — 的摘要

[重雨諮詢領域]

新竹市新竹縣平原區-

—-觀察累積雨量—

＊站 24 小時累積雨量超過 50 毫米

17/2012年/08 9:20 上午 ~ 18/2012年/08 9:20 上午

-大雨（50 毫米）：

苗栗縣三義鄉： 117.5 毫米，

屏東縣屏東市： 88.0 毫米，

屏東縣彥浦鄉： 76.5 毫米，

新竹縣象山區： 73.5 毫米，

屏東縣 Linluo 鄉： 69.5 毫米，

苗栗縣苑裡鎮： 61.5 毫米，

苗栗縣 Zaoqiao 鄉： 60.5 毫米，

台南市歸仁區： 55.0 毫米，

台南市導購區: 54.0 毫米，

————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Tropical Storm Public Advisory (Pearl Harbor USA)

wtpn31 pgtw 172100
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical storm 14w (Kai-Tak) warning nr 022
01 active tropical cyclone in northwestpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
wind radii valid over open water only
—
warning position:
171800z — near 21.1n 105.9e
movement past six hours – 265 degrees at 17 kts
position accurate to within 060 nm
position based on center located by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds – 050 kt, gusts 065 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over land
repeat posit: 21.1n 105.9e
—
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
180600z — 21.3n 103.1e
Max sustained winds – 035 kt, gusts 045 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over land
vector to 24 hr posit: 275 deg/ 10 kts
—
24 hrs, valid at:
181800z — 21.5n 100.9e
Max sustained winds – 020 kt, gusts 030 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
dissipated as a significant tropical cyclone over land
—
remarks:
172100z position near 21.1n 105.2e.
Tropical storm 14w (Kai-Tak), located approximately 5 nm north of
hanoi, Vietnam, has tracked westward at 17 knots over the past six
hours. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery as well as a
171845z AMSU-b microwave satellite image show decreasing central
convection and weakening during the past six hours. Position is
based on the abovementioned satellite imagery with high confidence.
Ts 14w is currently located over land and is expected to continue
tracking inland and dissipate within 24 hours. This is the final
warning on this system by the joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi.
The system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration.//

wtpn31 pgtw 172100
msgid/genadmin/công ty bão wrncen Trân Châu Cảng hi / /
Subj/Severe cảnh báo / /
rmks /
1. Tropical storm 14w (Kai Tak) cảnh báo nr 022
01 hoạt động Severe trong northwestpac
Max duy trì Gió dựa trên trung bình một phút
bán kính Gió hợp lệ hơn mở nước chỉ
—
cảnh báo vị trí:
171800z—gần 21.1n 105.9e
phong trào qua sáu giờ – 265 độ lúc 17 kts
vị trí chính xác để trong vòng 060 nm
vị trí dựa trên các trung tâm tọa lạc vệ tinh
hiện nay Gió phân phối:
Max duy trì Gió – 050 kt, gusts 065 kt
bán kính Gió hợp lệ hơn mở nước chỉ
dissipating là một Severe đáng kể trên đất
lặp lại posit: 21.1n 105.9e
—
dự báo:
12 giờ, hợp lệ tại:
180600z—21.3n 103.1e
Max duy trì Gió – 035 kt, gusts 045 kt
bán kính Gió hợp lệ hơn mở nước chỉ
dissipating là một Severe đáng kể trên đất
véc tơ để 24 hr posit: 275 deg / 10 kts
—
24 giờ, hợp lệ tại:
181800z—21.5n 100.9e
Max duy trì Gió – 020 kt, gusts 030 kt
bán kính Gió hợp lệ hơn mở nước chỉ
ăn chơi như một Severe đáng kể trên đất
—
ghi chú:
vị trí 172100z gần 21.1n 105.2e.
Tropical storm 14w (Kai-Tak), có vị trí cách khoảng 5 nm Bắc
Hà Nội, Việt Nam, đã theo dõi về hướng tây lúc 17 knot trong sáu vừa qua
giờ. Hình ảnh vệ tinh hồng ngoại nâng cao cũng như một
hình ảnh vệ tinh 171845z AMSU-b lò vi sóng hiện giảm miền trung
đối lưu và làm suy yếu trong sáu giờ trong quá khứ. Vị trí là
dựa trên các hình ảnh vệ tinh trên với sự tự tin cao.
TS 14w là hiện nay nằm trên đất liền và dự kiến sẽ tiếp tục
theo dõi nội địa và tiêu tan trong vòng 24 giờ. Đây là lần cuối cùng
cảnh báo hệ thống này bởi wrncen chung bão Trân Châu Cảng hi.
Hệ thống sẽ được theo dõi chặt chẽ cho các dấu hiệu của regeneration.//

wtpn31 172100 pgtw
聯合/msgid 進行/genadmin 颱風 wrncen 珠港喜 / /
琉璃/熱帶氣旋警告 / /
rmks /
1.熱帶風暴 14w (啟德) 警告 nr 022
northwestpac 01 活躍熱帶氣旋
最大持續風速基於一分鐘平均
有效的風半徑超過打開水只
—
警告的位置：
171800z—近 21.1n 105.9e
過去的六個小時-17 kts 265 度的運動
位置精確到內 060 nm
基於中心通過衛星定位的位置
目前風力分佈：
最大持續風速-050 kt、陣風 065 kt
有效的風半徑超過打開水只
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋正在消退中的土地上
重複存款: 21.1n 105.9e
—
預測：
12 小時，在有效：
180600z—21.3n 103.1e
最大持續風速-035 kt、陣風 045 kt
有效的風半徑超過打開水只
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋正在消退中的土地上
向量到 24 小時存款： 275 攝氏度 / 10 kts
—
24 小時，在有效：
181800z—21.5n 100.9e
最大持續風速-020 kt、陣風 030 kt
有效的風半徑超過打開水只
土地作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋消散
—
備註：
172100z 位置附近 21.1n 105.2e。
熱帶風暴 14w (啟德），位於大約 5 北部 nm
越南河內，一直跟蹤在過去的六 17 海裡向西
小時。增強型紅外衛星圖像的動畫，以及
171845z AMSU-b 微波衛星圖像顯示降低中央
對流和削弱了在過去的六個小時。位置是
基於上述衛星圖像的高信任度。
Ts 14w 位於當前的土地上，預計將繼續
內陸跟蹤和在 24 小時內消失。這是決賽
警告在此系統上的聯合颱風 wrncen 珍珠港喜。
系統將會密切監察 regeneration.// 的跡象

Related:

As Typhoon #KaiTak approaches #China, CMA expects 250 to 300 mm rain in South #Guangdong #WX #News http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2012-08/16/c_131789908.htm

#Philippines: Disease alert as #flood toll jumps to 85, tropical depression #HELEN concern – Updated 12 Aug 2012 1337 GMT/UTC

New storm hits Philippines as weather forecasters/meteorologists protest over pay http://nbcnews.to/Myvn08

Problems just beginning for Philippines poor
Thursday August 16, 2012 – 22:30 EST

Humanitarian aid groups in Manila say problems are only beginning for the poor, after weeks of heavy rain in the Philippines brought floods that claimed at least 109 lives and displaced about 300,000 people.

The Philippines government has now announced a plan to clear metro Manila of low-lying shanty towns, home to about 300-thousand poor dwellers.

Chairman of Party of Labouring Masses, Sonny Melencio, told Radio Australia’s that if people are forced to move to the provinces they will struggle to find jobs.

“The government response to their plight is basically to move them out of their areas, of their communities and to relocate them in areas where there is no job, in areas where there are no facilities,” he said.

Mr Melencio says Philippines President Benigno Aquino had blamed the floods on low-lying shanty towns in urban Manila, and had asked one of his departments to clear the areas by blasting the houses.

Mr Melencio says by clearing the communities the government will displace around 700,000 people.

Many displaced residents have now been asked to leave evacuation centres and many areas of Manila are still flooded.

Water-borne illnesses are also a threat, Mr Melencio says, with medicine prices increasing rapidly.

“The medicine against leptospirosis has gone up 750 per cent, so I think it started with a few pesos.

“If you have some open wound and then you wade through the flood, then it gets infected and then all sorts of complications come in.

“The health situation is really very messy.”

– ABC

www.weatherzone.com.au

VIETNAM

AAP: VIETNAM has put 20,000 soldiers on standby, ordered boats back to shore and begun evacuating local residents as it prepares for Typhoon Kai-Tak to make landfall.

More than 11,000 boats, including 575 used by tourists at the UNESCO world heritage site Halong Bay, have been ordered to stay close to the shore, the deputy head of Quang Ninh province’s flood and storm control department said on Friday.

“Mong Cai town, which borders China, will be directly hit by the storm late on Friday,” Nguyen Cong Thuan told AFP, adding that thousands of residents directly in the storm’s path had been moved to safer areas.

Before blowing away from the Philippines on Thursday, Kai-Tak swept across the main island of Luzon, dumping heavy rain on the Cagayan basin and other areas in the north, killing four people.

Weather forecasters in Vietnam say the typhoon will bring winds of up to 133km/h when it makes landfall.

The Tuoi Tre newspaper reports the Vietnamese army has put 20,000 soldiers, eight helicopters, 72 rescue boats, 400 vehicles and 1000 canoes on standby to cope with any possible incidents.

Vietnam is hit by an average of between eight and 10 tropical storms a year, often causing heavy material and human losses.

Việt Nam đã đặt 20.000 binh sĩ về chế độ chờ, ra lệnh cho tàu thuyền trở lại bờ biển và bắt đầu di tản cư dân địa phương như nó chuẩn bị cho cơn bão Kai-Tak làm rơi xuống đất.

Hơn 11.000 tàu, bao gồm cả 575 người sử dụng bởi khách du lịch tại trang web di sản thế giới UNESCO Vịnh Hạ Long, đã được lệnh phải ở lại gần bờ, người đứng đầu phó của tỉnh Quảng Ninh lũ lụt và bão điều khiển vùng cho biết ngày thứ sáu.

“Móng cái xã, mà biên giới Trung Quốc, sẽ được trực tiếp trúng cơn bão cuối ngày thứ sáu,” Nguyễn công thuận nói với AFP, thêm rằng hàng ngàn người dân trực tiếp trong đường dẫn của cơn bão đã được chuyển đến các khu vực an toàn hơn.

Trước khi thổi ra khỏi Việt Nam vào ngày thứ năm, Kai Tak xuôi trên hòn đảo chính đảo Luzon, bán phá giá mưa lớn trên các lưu vực Cagayan và các khu vực khác ở phía bắc, làm thiệt mạng bốn người.

Dự báo tiết tại Việt Nam nói cơn bão sẽ mang gió lên đến 133 km/h khi nó làm cho rơi xuống đất.

Các tờ báo tuổi trẻ báo cáo của quân đội Việt Nam đã đặt 20.000 binh sĩ, tám máy bay trực thăng, tàu thuyền cứu hộ 72, 400 xe và 1000 xuồng về chế độ chờ để đối phó với bất kỳ sự cố có thể.

Việt Nam trúng một cơn bão nhiệt đới Trung bình của giữa tám và 10 năm, thường gây ra vật liệu nặng và thiệt hại của con người.

Tropical Storm VICENTE (FERDIE): Southern China particularly Guangxi Province should closely monitor the progress of this storm – Updated 24 July 2012 1440 GMT/UTC

July 20, 2012 by Goaty's News UK

VICENTE (FERDIE) rapidly dissipating over Guangxi Province in China…downgraded to a Tropical Storm.

(Image: wundergound.com)
Typhoon Vicente Tracking Map
(Click image for source)

(Image: usno.navy.mil/JTWC)
Multispectral Satellite Imagery
(Click image for source)

VICENTE will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Northern and Central Luzon particularly the western sections. Breezy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasional to sometimes continuous rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas today.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Guangxi Province should closely monitor the progress of Vicente (Ferdie).

维森特 (FERDIE) 迅速消退 … … 在中国广西省降至一个热带风暴。

维森特将继续加强西南季风 (aka。Habagat）跨北部和中部的吕宋岛特别是西方的部分。习习的条件和偶尔有时连续暴雨、雷暴和狂风骤雨条件将今天预期沿上述领域。

居民和游客沿南中国特别是广西省应密切监察维森特 (Ferdie) 的进展情况。

请不要使用此生或死的决定。这个咨询是额外的信息仅用于目的。请参阅本地警告、通报、公告贵国的官方天气机构。

24 July 2012 1512 GMT/UTC:

Weather Channel: Typhoon #Vicente rapidly developed before slamming into China.

天气频道: 台风维森特迅速发展砰进入中国之前。

Photos/recap: http://wxch.nl/PDTWIY

Weather Underground’s Dr. Masters says, “Category 4 #Typhoon #Vicente hits China”

天气地下博士硕士说，”类别 4 台风维森特打中国”

http://wxug.us/at92

24 July 2012 1550 GMT/UTC: @JournoDannyAsia: HK Observatory has put a Strong Monsoon signal out

24 July 2012 1720 GMT/UTC:

Video of Cyclone (Typhoon) Vicente aftermath in Hong Kong by @profshaslett

T2K TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PhT Tue Jul 24

External Links for TS VICENTE (FERDIE)
View NOAA-CIRA’s: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0912.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1 Day Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Vicente’s Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA’s Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

– thenhbushmantyphoon.blogspot.co.uk

NDRRMC Severe Weather Bulletins for Tropical Depression “FERDIE”

NDRRMC (SitRep 3): 13 incidents occurred due to TD #FERDIE; 2 dead, 6 missing http://fb.me/MnhdGT9a

Flooded roads in Metro Manila, traffic update & more from TV5 (Quezon City, Philippines)

China: 10 dead after record rain pounds Beijing, more rain to come

Awesome view of typhoon Vicente over Hong Kong (@Dom_Lau) http://pic.twitter.com/ZFavC8WM

Hong Kong ‘Storm of the decade’ – thenanfang.com

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

(Image: usno.navy.mil/JTWC)
TC Warning Graphic
(Click image for source)

WTPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (VICENTE) WARNING NR 014    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z --- NEAR 22.3N 112.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 112.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 23.0N 109.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 23.0N 107.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 22.9N 105.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 111.6E.
TYPHOON 09W (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM WEST OF HONG 
KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. TY 09W MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 232000Z AND, AS 
INDICATED IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME 
MORE DISORGANIZED SINCE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TY 09W 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN 
CHINA AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM. THIS IS THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL 
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF 
REGENERATION.//
NNNN

WTPN31 PGTW 240300

联合/MSGID 进行/GENADMIN 台风 WRNCEN 珍珠港喜 / /

琉璃/热带气旋最后警告 / /

RMKS /

1.台风 09W (维森特）警告 NR 014

01 活跃热带气旋在 NORTHWESTPAC

基于一分钟的平均最高持续的风速

只有有效风半径超过打开过的水

—

警告的位置：

240000Z—近 22.3N 112.2E

过去的六个小时-12 KTS 300 度运动

位置精确到内 040 NM

基于中心位于结合的位置

卫星和雷达

目前风力分布：

最大持续的风速-100 KT、阵风 125 KT

只有有效风半径超过打开过的水

重复存款: 22.3N 112.2E

—

预测：

12 小时，在有效：

241200Z—23.0N 109.6E

最大持续的风速-060 KT、阵风 075 KT

只有有效风半径超过打开过的水

向量到 24 小时存款： 270 摄氏度 / 11 KTS

—

24 小时，在有效：

250000Z—23.0N 107.3E

最大持续的风速-035 KT、阵风 045 KT

只有有效风半径超过打开过的水

作为重要的热带气旋在陆地逐渐消退

向量到 36 小时存款： 270 摄氏度 / 10 KTS

—

36 小时，在有效：

251200Z—22.9N 105.1E

最大持续的风速-020 KT、阵风 030 KT

只有有效风半径超过打开过的水

作为重要的热带气旋在陆地消散

—

备注：

240300Z 位置附近 22.5N 111.6E。

台风 09W (维森特），位于约 110 香港西部 NM

香港，一直跟踪西西北地区在过去的六 12 海里/小时

小时。在大约 232000Z，作为登陆 TY 09W

表示在雷达和卫星图像，已减弱并成为

自从杂乱无章的更多。模型是很好的协议中，TY 09W

将继续向西的南部不平的地面跟踪

中国和消失的 36 头在越南北部。这就是

此系统由联合台风 WRNCEN 珠江上最后警告

港口你好。系统将会密切监察的迹象

REGENERATION.//

NNNN

DOKSURI ( DINDO) ITEM OUT OF DATE 這一專案現已過時 – Updated 21 Aug 2012 2023 GMT/UTC

June 27, 2012 by Goaty's News UK

這一專案現已過時

THIS ITEM IS OUT OF DATE NOW

(Photo: Roger Price, Creative Commons Licence)
“Fabulous view from the office with Typhoon Doksuri approaching!” says Roger Price who took this 8 hours ago in Soho, Hong Kong, Hong Kong Island, HK, using an Apple iPhone 4S.