UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 16 Nov 2015 2330z (GMT/UTC)

==UK==

STORM BARNEY

SKYWARN

Severe Weather Alert #54 issued (See below)

Met Office Severe Weather Warnings:

Met Office Weather Warnings for mobile

Highlands & Eilean Siar Yellow Warning

Strathclyde Yellow Warning

London & South East England Yellow Warning

East Midlands Yellow Warning

North West England Yellow Warning

South West England Yellow Warning

Yorkshire & Humber Yellow Warning

Orkney & Shetland Yellow Warning

East of England Yellow Warning

Wales Yellow Warning

West Midlands Yellow Warning

North East England Yellow Warning

(For details follow above links)

 20 Flood Warnings in England and Wales – 6 in Scotland

at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

29 Flood Alerts in England and Wales – 5 in Scotland

at 

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

( Check for interim updates in comments at bottom of page)

Severe Weather Warnings for Europe are now toward the bottom of the page

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Weather Radar Europe (meteox.co.uk)

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Jersey Radar also covers much of South/South West of England & N France

CI weather warnings


SkyWarn UK’s mission is to forecast, report, and record severe weather.

SKYWARN UK CURRENT ALERT (Link)

Severe Weather Alert #54
SWUK has issued a Severe Weather Alert for strong winds in excess of 70mph
Valid from 1300hrs Tuesday 17th November to 0300hrs Wednesday 18th November.
for
South and South Western England & Wales
An easterly moving low pressure system (officially named ‘Barney’ by the MetO) will track across southern UK on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Wind gusts could exceed SWUK criteria of 70mph along exposed coasts on the southern flank of the low.
Wales and the Bristol Channel could see gusts of 80mph
Spotters in the alert area are requested to report any breaches of SWUK criteria in the normal manner.

For details on SkyWarn UK’s alert criteria, click HERE.

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The latest Severe Weather Reports from TORRO can be found by following this link:

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Latest news reports (see bottom of page)

BBC Weather

Monday

151116

Tuesday

151117

Wednesday

151118

UK Warnings

Warnings

Monday 16 November Published at 16:54

UK Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING OF WIND for NORTHWEST SCOTLAND

Issued at 10:35 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid from 11:00 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid until 23:55 on Mon 16 Nov

Southwesterly winds will increase during Monday, when severe gales will affect parts of the northwest mainland of Scotland, the Western Isles and Northern Isles. The strongest winds will initially develop across the Western Isles and northwest coast this afternoon before extending into the Northern Isles during the evening. Winds will quickly ease on Tuesday.

Gusts of wind of 65-75 mph are expected in places, so be aware that there may be some further disruption to travel. Additionally, large waves may cause some overtopping of sea defences.

This an update to the warning issued on Sunday morning.

Further updates will appear here.

YELLOW WARNING OF RAIN for NORTH WALES and NORTH ENGLAND

Issued at 10:23 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid from 10:00 on Tue 17 Nov

Valid until 23:45 on Tue 17 Nov

Further rain is expected on Tuesday as a frontal system runs across the UK from the west. The largest accumulations are expected across the hills of northwest England and northwest Wales though low lying areas will also see a period of heavy rain. On the southern side of this system some very strong winds are expected and a separate warning for winds is likely to be issued.

The public should be aware that, given the already saturated conditions, flooding is possible either from standing water or from rivers already swollen by recent rainfall. This could lead to disruption to travel and perhaps localised flooding to properties.

This is a further update to the warning originally issued on Friday, reducing the northern extent of the warning and moving into minor impacts.

Further updates will appear here.

YELLOW WARNING of WIND for much of WALES and SOUTHERN ENGLAND

Issued at 10:46 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid from 15:00 on Tue 17 Nov

Valid until 23:30 on Tue 17 Nov

West to southwesterly gales and locally severe gales are likely to sweep eastwards across parts of Wales, southern, central and eastern England later on Tuesday. Gusts could reach 60-70 mph inland and possibly 80 mph along exposed coasts, particularly Wales and through the Bristol Channel.

Be aware of the risk of disruption to travel and that gusts of this strength could bring down trees and lead to some damage to weakened structures.

Further updates will appear here.

YELLOW EARLY WARNING OF RAIN for NORTH WALES and NORTH ENGLAND

Issued at 12:17 on Sun 15 Nov

Valid from 16:00 on Wed 18 Nov

Valid until 23:45 on Wed 18 Nov

Another spell of heavy rain, accompanied by gale force winds in places, will cross the country on Wednesday, with largest rainfall over the high ground areas already saturated from recent wet weather. Up to 50 mm is expected in the wettest spots in North Wales and NW England.

The public should be aware of the potential for further impacts such as disruption to travel and local flooding.

Further updates will appear here.

When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings

Northern Ireland: Addition information available from https://www.facebook.com/northernirelandweather?fref=ts

Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.

What is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW)?

Peter Gibbs explains sudden stratospheric warming and why it is often linked to outbreaks of cold weather: Sudden stratospheric warming

What is freezing fog?

UK RADAR AND SATELLITE

Surface Analyses & Observations UK and Europe

https://embed.windyty.com/?surface,wind,now,53.801,3.076,4,,menu,,

Animated map of global wind conditions

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

News at bottom of page

FLOOD WARNINGS & ALERTS

There are NO SEVERE FLOOD WARNING currently in force in England & Wales at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

There are NO SEVERE FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in Scotland at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

Flood Warning Flood Warning Flooding is expected. Immediate action required

There are 20 FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in England & Wales at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/flood/31618.aspx

There are 6 FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in Scotland at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

Flood Alert Flood AlertFlooding is possible. Be prepared.

There are 29 FLOOD ALERTS currently in force in England & Wales at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

There are 5 FLOOD ALERTS currently in force in Scotland at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

About the Environment Agency Flood Warnings

The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and sent to the BBC Weather Centre, we then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.

Find out more about Flood Warnings

There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. Both the Environment Agency (for England and Wales) and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.

Floodline 0845 988 1188

Coastal Forecast

A 24 hour weather forecast for 24 UK coastal areas

Tide Tables

Tidal information supplied by the UK Hydrographic Office

Inshore Waters

There are strong wind warnings in 19 areas.

There is a gale warning in 1 area.

The next few days will be dominated by severeal areas of low pressure tracking across the British Isles bringing strong winds, large waves and changeable weather to all parts.

Shipping Forecast

There are gale warnings in 29 areas.

The general synopsis at midday

Low Bailey 964 expected Norwegian Basin 973 by midday tomorrow. New low expected Shannon 983 by same time.

Extended Outlook

The Extended Outlook aims to signpost expected hazards for the Cullercoats, Niton and Portpatrick areas for the three days beyond the 24 hour shipping forecast.

High Seas

There are storm warnings in 8 areas.

The general synopsis at 16 November 20:00 UTC

At 161200UTC low 60 north 13 west 964 expected 63 north 02 east 973 by 171200UTC. Low 48 north 39 west 987 expected 53 north 12 west 983 by same time. Low 50 north 20 west 998 losing its identity by that time. New low moving slowly east expected 53 north 32 west 988 by 171200UTC

Europe: Very dangerous weather – ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: LEVEL 3! for parts of POLAND and W BELARUS Damaging wind gusts, large and very hail, excessive precipitation and SIGNIFICANT TORNADO EVENT. – Published 190715 1216z

Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 19 Jul 2015 06:00 to Mon 20 Jul 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 19 Jul 2015 00:01
Forecaster: TASZAREK

A level 3 was issued for parts of Poland and W Belarus mainly for the damaging wind gusts, large and very hail, excessive precipitation and significant tornado event.

A level 2 was issued for parts of Germany, Poland, Belarus, NW Ukraine and N Czech Republic mainly for the severe wind gusts, large hail, tornadoes and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for parts of S Finland and parts of Russia mainly for the large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for parts of UK, Netherlands, S Denmark, Germany, Switzerland, N Italy, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, W Hungary, Belarus and NW Ukraine mainly for the large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for NE Spain mainly for the large hail and excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

Most of the Central, SW, S and SE Europe is covered with highly unstable warm and moist tropical air mass with dew points up to 20C. A ridge extending from Azores up to Iberian Peninsula inhibits convection in this region. Strong capping inversions are also present in the Apennine and most of the Balkan Peninsula. Weakening high is places over Black Sea while the numerous troughs are located over British Isles, Scandinavia and N Russia. Jet streak separating polar and tropical air mass is stretching from the N Atlantic trough England, N Germany and Poland up to Russia. Within this jet, a short-wave with thermal low is predicted to provide a good overlap of instability, moisture, lift and wind shear over parts of Germany, Poland and Belarus.

DISCUSSION

…Germany, Poland, Belarus, NW Ukraine…

Particularly severe weather is expected in the afternoon hours within the shortwave that will pass these countries in the forecast period and provide the great source of lifting mechanism. An overlap of SB CAPE exceeding 1000-2000 J/kg and DLS over 20-25 m/s in the large area extending from central Germany up to Poland is expected to produce widespread severe weather. Around noon, convection should start over Germany and most likely in the form of the supercell thunderstorms produce damaging wind gusts and large to very large hail. An increased 0-1km SRH over 100 m2/s2 and LLS exceeding 10 m/s cannot rule out tornado occurrence within these cells. In the afternoon hours CI should also take place in W Poland. Since these cells will form in the highly unstable (1500-2000 J/kg) and strongly sheared environment (DLS ~ 25 m/s, MLS ~ 20 m/s, LLS ~ 15 m/s, 0-3km SRH up to 300 m2/s2) with the support of the QG lift, an organized squall line is likely to form. It is likely that such a squall line will contain bow echos and the wind gusts within these may exceed 33 m/s. The transformation into derecho cannot be ruled out. Level 3 denote the area where according to the current understanding and NWP data the movement of this line is the most probable. However, models are not consistent with the direction of the MCS movement, some of them predicts propagation of the squall line to the Belarus, while some of them shifts the system more to the warm air mass. It is possible that an early-hours convection that will pass through N Poland may provide conditions more conducive for MCS turning more to the S. Due to these uncertainties, both scenarios are partially included in the level 3 area. Although the main threat are damaging wind gusts, conditions in the late afternoon hours (when the relative humidity will drop and thus the LCL) will be conducive for tornadoes, especially in the E Poland. An impressive overlap of 0-1km SRH ~ 400 m2/s2 with LLS ~ 12.5 m/s and CAPE ~ 1000 J/kg may result in a significant tornado event if isolated or embedded supercells will be present. These may be possible in the southern flank of the squall line. Within these storms very large hail is also possible. It is predicted that the MCS will enter Belarus and parts of Ukraine in the late evening hours and weaken, but still will be capable of producing severe wind gusts. If derecho will form, the system may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts also in the late evening hours, therefore level 3 is also extended to the parts of Belarus further east. Extreme values of PW (40-45 mm) may also result in a large precipitation amounts on the track of the MCS.

…parts of UK, Denmark, Netherlands, N Germany, Baltic Sea…

Although models predicts very large DLS over these areas (25-30 m/s) they are not as consistent with thermodynamic instability. Thunderstorms that will form within the short-wave may become supercells and create threat for the large hail and severe wind gusts. However, due to limited thermodynamic instability, limited boundary layers moisture content and rather low-topped convection, such a threat deserves only level 1.

…Germany, Switzerland, N Italy, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, W Hungary, Belarus and NW Ukraine…

Locally enhanced DLS up to 15 m/s with CAPE up to 2000-2500 J/kg and rich boundary layer’s moisture (mixing ratio up to 12-13 g/kg) create threat for multicell and supercell thunderstorms where severe wind gusts and large hail are likely. DMC is forecast to start around noon and the storms should weaken in the late evening hours. In the areas where the storm motion is predicted to be very low (DLS below 10 m/s) excessive precipitation and local flash flooding cannot be ruled out, especially in the NW parts of the Italy.

…S Finland, parts of Russia…

Favorable overlap of DLS around 20 m/s and CAPE up to 400-600 J/kg create threat for supercell thunderstorms and thus severe wind gusts and large hail. Uncertainty related to CI, low thermodynamic instability, limited boundary layer’s moisture content and narrow zone where the CAPE overlaps with the favorable shear makes the threat marginal. The highest threat for the occurrence of severe weather falls on the early afternoon hours.

…NE Spain…

Low-level inflow of impressive rich boundary layer’s moisture content (mixing ratios up to 16-18 g/kg) overlapping with steep lapse rates (~ 7 C/km) locally will enhance CAPE values to 2000-2500 J/kg. If thunderstorms will be able to get through the cap, they may be capable of producing large hail. Since the storm motion in this area is predicted to be very low, given the high moisture content excessive precipitation cannot be ruled out.

END

See also >>>>  http://www.meteoalarm.eu/

Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sun 19 Jul 2015 11:00 to Sun 19 Jul 2015 14:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 19 Jul 2015 11:51
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

At 11 UTC a warm front was located along a line from near Leipzig to Poznan to Warsaw. An MCS / area of convective rain over NE Germany has created an outflow boundary that stretches from Berlin to Leipzig.

Along the warm front distinct surface convergence is taking place and low-level humidity is rather high with 18-21 C observed dew points. With 26-30 C surface temperatures, around 1000 – 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should already be in place.

The Bayreuth, Lindenberg and Doksany profilers and Poznan radar confirm that 20-25 m/s WSW winds are in place at 3-4 km AGL, implying that strong to very strong wind shear is present.

Storms, probably elevated have formed in the Leipzig area and further south across the Czech Republic. It is expected that these storms will move eastward and become surface based. It is possible that storms will rather rapidly develop into a squall-line and that the wind risk will increase rather quickly.

In addition, more storms may form further to the east along the warm front after 13 UTC. Any isolated storms that manage to form will quickly turn into powerful supercells with a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts.

The high (about 300 m2/s2) SREH and anticipated strengthening low-level shear that is in place along and slightly to the north of the warm front suggests that tornadoes cannot be ruled out. However, in most places, the LCL height is rather high for tornadoes with T/Td spreads around 10 C, limiting this risk. An exception is a small area along the warm front where prior rainfall occurrs before the arrival of storms, cooling and moistening the boundary layer.

END

Signpost to UK SEVERE WEATHER, FLOOD WARNINGS and TORRO TORNADO WATCH – Updated 09 Aug 2014 2325z (GMT/UTC)

EX-Hurricane Bertha

TORRO TORNADO WATCH for much of southern, central, and eastern England, and parts of N England, Wales

and the Channel Islands.

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning; hail

Valid from 03:00 until 17:00GMT on Sunday 10th August 2014

A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 22:45GMT on Saturday 9th August 2014

Valid from/until: 03:00- 17:00GMT on Sunday 10th August 2014 for the following regions

Parts of (see map)

Much of southern, central, and eastern England, and parts of N England

Wales

Channel Islands

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning; hail

DISCUSSION

Deepening Atlantic storm with tropical airmass within its warm sector will cross the watch area during Sunday. Although the exact track is still somewhat uncertain, there are indications from several models that a dual-centred system will evolve. The first centre should move into Wales later tonight, with the main centre crossing SW England and heading NE to Lincs by afternoon, whilst the first centre tends to fill or is consumed by the second.

Strong lifting from a sharpening upper trough should steepen lapse rates enough for embedded convection to develop close to and to the south of both centres of low pressure, with wind shear favourable for severe weather, especially to the south and east of the second, deeper, low pressure area.

A mass of heavy rain is already moving in, and through the latter part of the night, embedded convection may affect parts of Wales and SW England, as the low pressure centre(s) move in. During Sunday morning, as the sharpening upper trough digs into the moist sector, it is possible that a squall line may develop across southern England/E Anglia. Additionally, ahead of the low pressure area moving from SW England to Lincs, convection may develop in the moist sector.

In each of these areas, low-level and deep layer wind shear appears sufficient for severe thunderstorms with strong winds and perhaps a tornado or two. The main caveat with this watch is that the maritime nature of the airmass would typically suggest fairly meagre lapse rates – however, global and mesoscale models indication fairly decent instability associated with this system (~1000J/Kg CAPE). If instability and shear can combine favourably, a strong tornado is possible.

The area from SW England to Lincs, and points south-east of there appear to have a higher risk of severe weather than elsewhere in the watch area. Please note this forecast has been issued early due to the fact the situation will not be monitored by TORRO overnight.

Forecaster: RPK

Torro Tornado Watch 2014/008 (Image: TORRO)

also UK SEVERE WEATHER & FLOOD WARNINGS

http://wp.me/p2k2mU-2Ne

 

Europe: Euro-forecaster Estofex issues Level 2 Storm Forecast for N Italy – Published 290614 1700z

Storm Forecast

Forecast provided by ESTOFEX (Click image to go to source)

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 29 Jun 2014 06:00 to Mon 30 Jun 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 29 Jun 2014 04:22
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 2 was issued for N Italy mainly for severe convective wind gusts, large hail and excessive convective precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for parts of central Europe mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

The cold front associated with a large amplitude mid level trough from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean Sea is pushing eastward through Italy and central Europe today. Surface level lows reside over southern Scandinavia and northern Italy. Cold airmass thunderstorms are likely over France, Benelux and western Germany. The prefrontal airmass over Italy is moderately unstable due to the presence of the Saharan Air Layer with steep mid level lapse rates and 10-12 g/kg moist boundary layer air. Strong winds in mid levels create a favorable kinematic environment for storms.

DISCUSSION

…Italy, southern Austria and western Balkan…

Some regional WRF models predict over 2500 J/kg SBCAPE over the Lgurian Sea. MLCAPE should be 1000-2000 J/kg. This will be capped south of the Po valley. Either way, given the 20 m/s deep layer shear and strong moisture lifting over the south slopes of the Alps triggering of supercells and MCSes is highly probable, with chances of widespread large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. During the evening as the cold front comes through, the model scenario (GFS, WRF) is that some discrete supercells or a linear system will also affect the area south of the Po valley. The area of Austria to Croatia will likely see the strongest moisture lift and largest storms, and can become affected by excessive convective rainfall, at least locally. The PV/dynamic tropopause intrusion acquires a negative tilt at night which might help to keep the storms active for long in the region near Slovenia, although WRF models keep the storms moving. Tornadoes are not ruled out with pre-Alpine 0-1 km shear of 8 m/s and locally higher.

…Hungary, N and E Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania…

Relatively modest MLCAPE should exist in a broad area from Hungary/Austria to the Baltics. The presence of 10-15 m/s deep layer shear could develop persistent and rotating updrafts which can locally release large hail. The frontal convergence zone in the Austrian-Hungarian-Czechian borders region should be the main focus for convective development, another is NE Poland and Lithuania near the occlusion.

…southern Sweden and Norway…

Some instability is present within the low. Low cloud bases and slow cell motion combined with good low-level buoyancy and convergence zones are found mainly over southern Sweden. Such conditions are favorable for spout type tornadoes and funnels.

ESTOFEX FAQ

Europe: ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: Level 1 for Portugal, W Spain, Bay of Biscay, & SW British Isles mainly for tornadoes and excessive rain valid until to 251013 0600Z.- 241013 1425Z

Storm Forecast

 

 

Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 24 Oct 2013 06:00 to Fri 25 Oct 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 23 Oct 2013 22:44
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for Portugal, western Spain, Bay of Biscay, and south-western British Isles mainly for tornadoes and excessive rain.

SYNOPSIS

South-westerly flow continues across Europe given rather weak geopotential across the Atlantic Ocean. An embedded short-wave trough will move from southern Scandinavia to the Baltic States, affecting Germany and even the Adriatic Sea with its trough axis. Cold air will spread into central Europe in the wake of this trough. From the west, a weak ridge will follow that affects especially France during the daytime. A new Atlantic trough will enter western Europe until the end of the period.

Ahead of the central European short-wave trough, a tongue of moist and locally unstable air spreads into eastern Europe. Low-level moisture will also increase across western Europe. Steep lapse rates are expected from the Mediterranean to the central Balkans. The central European trough will provide DCVA across the Mediterranean and northern/eastern Europe, whereas warm air advection will increase across Iberia and France late in the period.

DISCUSSION

Portugal and western Spain, Bay of Biscay, south-western British Isles

Ahead of the new approaching trough, another tongue of warm subtropical air spreads into western Europe. Low-level moisture will reach more than 10 g/kg. Whereas rather weak lift is expected near the ridge axis from eastern Spain to southern France, a couple of vort-maxima will travel north-east from Portugal across the Bay of Biscay into south-western Ireland and England. Late in the period, a strong 30 m/s mid-level jet streak will spread across the Bay of Biscay.

Given this strong DCVA and WAA over the region, large ageostrophic flow and low-level convergence is expected. Excessive rain seems to be quite likely from Portugal into the British Isles. In the wake of the leading warm front, lapse rates will increase due to lift along the cyclonically-sheared flank of the jet, and CAPE is forecast.

Current thinking is that thunderstorms will first affect Portugal and will spread north-east, reaching south-west England at the end of the period. Storms will be capable of producing excessive rain. Tornadoes will be an additional threat due to the strong low-level vertical wind shear and low LCL heights. A strong tornado is not ruled out. Tornado potential is expected to spread into the central British Isles on Friday (after the forecast period).

North Mediterranean to southern Austria and Slovakia

The central European trough will pass by leaving a cold front that becomes quasi-stationary at the flank of the south-east European ridge. To the south of the front, a warm and well-mixed airmass with steep lapse rates will affect the Balkans. Along the frontal boundary, a tongue of rich low-level moisture will spread into eastern Europe with 0-1 km mixing ratio exceeding 9 g/kg from northern Italy to Hungary and Slovakia. This moisture will partly overlap with the good lapse rates, resulting in CAPE.

Main uncertainty is the low-level buoyancy due to diurnal heating. The highest potential of storms clearly exists across the Mediterranean Sea in the morning hours, and numerous storms are expected to go on from the Ligurian Sea to the northern Adriatic. Due to the slowly eastward movement of the upper trough, storms will gradually spread south-east into the Tyrrhenian Sea and central Adriatic. Some storms may also evolve across northern and central Italy in the noon/afternoon hours, but low-level stable air masses will limit the potential over most places.

The storms that form across southern Europe will be affected by weak shear. Therefore, well organized storms are not forecast. However, an isolated excessive rain event or a waterspout is not ruled out.

Further north-east, storms are expected to develop along the frontal boundary in the noon and afternoon hours. Main limiting factor will be again the weak low-level buoyancy and CIN may be too large for initiation. Storms that my form can become severe given 15 to 20 m/s 0-3 km vertical wind shear. Especially Mesocyclones may produce large hail and severe wind gusts. The potential decreases from Austria to Slovakia, but a few events are expected. Storms will rapidly weaken after sunset.

Related:

Meteoalarm – severe weather warnings for Europe

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS Updated 24 Oct 20131345z

France: ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: Level 1 for parts of France valid until Sun 201013 06:00Z. Isolated tornado events, Heavy rain, large hail possible – 191013 1325z

Storm Forecast

(Scroll down for French translation) (Faites dfiler vers le bas pour la traduction franaise)

 

 

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 19 Oct 2013 06:00 to Sun 20 Oct 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 18 Oct 2013 16:17
Forecaster: TUSCHY

 

A level 1 was issued for parts of C France mainly for isolated large hail, excessive rain and an isolated tornado event.

A level 1 was issued for a small part of S France mainly for isolated large hail and an isolated tornado event.

SYNOPSIS

A flat and transient omega-like pattern has established over Europe. A weakening upper trough over SE Europe remains in place with only a low-end motion to the east. Numerous vortices over the far E-Atlantic steer a warm/humid air mass far to the NE while a stout branch of the polar vortex over N-Norway/Sweden advects a cold airmass to the south. A deep baroclinic zone (e.g. in excess of 20 K difference at 500 hPa between Germany/N-Norway) is the result with an evolving 40 m/s mid-level streak over the Baltic Sea.

This kind of pattern results in a bisection of Europe from the North Sea to Greece. Areas to the east will feel the influx of cool/cold and dry continental air from the N whereas areas to the west see a gradual recovery of moisture, both due to advection of a modified subtropical air mass and a moistening W-Mediterranean air mass. Hence thunderstorm probs. over E/NE Europe remain confined to offshore and coastal areas with isolated/weakly electrified storms. Scattered and stronger storms however occur over far W Europe.

DISCUSSION

… Ireland and United Kingdom …

Ingredients for thunderstorms will be in place with some iffy signals however. Behind a ENE-ward moving front (already transforming from a cold front into an occlusion from N to S) seasonable BL moisture remains in place. Mid/upper jets also reveal a good placement for some lift in addition to a weak vort.max. crossing the area of interest from SW to NE between 12-18Z. However, forecast soundings show a meager depth of the BL moisture with constant drying above. Therefore onshore turbulent mixing next to some temporal heating lower confidence in adequate CAPE build-up well inland. Coastal areas (SW-ward facing) will see best moisture and at least 300 to 700 J/kg SBCAPE. Some veering in the lowest 2 km AGL is present along the coastal areas with 50-100 J/kg 0-3 km CAPE, so an isolated spout/short-lived tornado is possible. Effective PWs also approach 20 mm, which could lead to some heavy rain and 15-20 m/s 850 hpa flow should ensure gusty winds with stronger convection.

We expanded the lightning areas far offshore. Despite more hostile conditions for electrified storms with this type of air mass, approaching cooler mid-level air should increase the CAPE disperal in the mid-level graupel layer a bit. Hence confidence in more activity compared to yesterday has increased.

We also splayed the eastern part of the 15-% lightning area all the way to Denmark to cover a few elevated thunderstorm events beyond 12Z. This also includes parts of N France . This activity will be non-severe.

… S/C-France …

Odds increase to see an heavy and convectively enhanced rainfall event between Marseille and Montpellier .

A very moist air mass is in place over the far W-Mediterranean with no serious frontal intrusion forecast. Persistent SW-erly mid/upper flow and falling surface pressure to the W/NW should assist in a constant onshore flow and hence better onshore moisture over the area of interest.

However, position and strength of the mid/upper jets are not yet favorable during most of this forecast period but improve after midnight. The same with the LLJ, which showes some strengthening during the overnight hours. Hence, expect mainly onshore convection during daytime hours.

We issued a 50-% lightning area and a level 1 as persistent upslope flow towards the Massif Central could induce a cluster with isolated large hail (20 m/s DLS).

We also don’t want to exclude an isolated tornado event with LCLs below 1 km and enhanced LL shear. Interaction of mid/upper dynamics and aforementioned LLJ could also support a temporal back-building with excessive rain the main risk. Therefore the level 1 was expanded far inland.

Beyond 00Z, environmental conditions improve for a developing coastal cluster with back-building tendencies. With 20-25 m/s DLS and increasing SRH, any coastal storm should become organized and probably supercellular. Large hail and an isolated tornado will be the main hazards.

Current thoughts with late development of that cluster preclude an excessive rainfall – level issuance for now. In case of earlier CI, excessive rain will be added to the current level 1 wording.

French (Translated by Google)

tempête Prvisions

tempête Prvisions
Valable : sam 19 octobre 2013 06h00 à Sun le 20 octobre 2013 06:00 UTC
Publi : Vendredi 18 octobre 2013 16:17
Prvisionniste : TUSCHY

Un niveau 1 a t mis pour une partie de C France principalement pour de la grosse grêle isol, l’excès de pluie et une manifestation de tornades isoles.

Un niveau 1 a t dlivr pour une petite partie de S France principalement pour isol gros grêlons et une manifestation de tornade isol.

SYNOPSIS

Un modèle plat et transitoire omga -like a mis en place en Europe. Un affaiblissement creux en altitude sur l’Europe du Sud reste en place avec seulement un mouvement de bas de gamme à l’est. De nombreux tourbillons plus loin le E- Atlantique dirigent une masse d’air chaud / humide loin au NE tandis qu’une grosse branche du vortex polaire sur N-Norway/Sweden advecte une masse d’air froid vers le sud. Une zone barocline profonde (par exemple au-delà de 20 diffrence de K à 500 hPa entre l’Allemagne / N- Norvège) est le rsultat d’un 40 m / s volutive srie à mi-niveau sur la mer Baltique .
Ce genre de rsultats de motif dans une dichotomie de l’Europe à partir de la mer du Nord à la Grèce. Rgions à l’est se sentiront à l’afflux de froid / froid et sec air continental de la N tandis que les zones à l’ouest voient une reprise progressive de l’humidit , à la fois en raison d’ advection d’une masse d’air subtropical modifi et une masse d’air W -mditerranenne d’humidification . D’où probs orage. sur E / NE Europe de rester confine à des zones extractières et ctières avec isol / tempêtes faiblement lectrifies. pars et plus forts orages se produisent cependant plus loin W Europe.

DISCUSSION

… L’Irlande et le Royaume-Uni …

Ingrdients pour les orages seront mis en place avec certains signaux iffy cependant . Derrière un front mouvant ENE- Ward ( djà transformer à partir d’un front froid dans une occlusion de N à S) humidit BL de saison reste en place. Jets milieu / haut rvèlent galement un bon placement pour certains ascenseur en plus d’un vort.max faible. traversant la zone d’intrêt du SO vers le NE entre 12 – 18Z . Cependant, les sondages de prvisions montrent une profondeur maigre de l’humidit BL avec schage constante au-dessus . Par consquent onshore mlange turbulent à ct de certains chauffage temporal infrieur confiance suffisante CAPE accumulation et l’intrieur des terres . Les zones ctières (face SW- Ward) verront mieux l’humidit et au moins 300 à 700 J / kg SBCAPE . Certains virant au moins 2 km AGL est prsent le long des zones ctières 50-100 J / kg 0-3 km CAPE , si une tornade bec / courte dure isole est possible. PG efficaces abordent galement 20 mm , ce qui pourrait conduire à une forte pluie et 15-20 m / s 850 hpa dbit devrait assurer des rafales de vent à convection forte.

Nous avons largi les domaines de la foudre loin des ctes . Malgr des conditions plus hostiles pour les tempêtes lectrifies avec ce type de masse d’air , approchant refroidisseur d’air de niveau moyen devrait augmenter le CAPE Disperal dans la couche graupel mi- niveau un peu. D’où la confiance dans plus d’activit par rapport à hier a augment.

Nous avons galement vase de la partie orientale de la 15 – % de la superficie de l’clair tout le chemin au Danemark pour couvrir quelques vnements d’orage levs au-delà de 12Z . Cela inclut galement des parties de N France. Cette activit sera sans gravit .

… S / C- France …

Les chances augmentent de voir un vnement de pluie abondante et convection renforce entre Marseille et Montpellier.

Une masse d’air très humide est en place sur l’extrême W -mditerranen sans grave prvisions intrusion frontal. Persistent SW -rectement mi / dbit suprieur et chute de la pression de surface à l’ W / NW devrait contribuer à un flux constant onshore et l’humidit donc mieux à terre sur la zone d’intrêt . Toutefois, la position et la force des jets milieu / haut ne sont pas encore favorable pendant la majeure partie de cette priode de prvision mais s’amliorent après minuit. La même chose avec le LLJ , qui showes un renforcement pendant les heures de nuit . Par consquent, s’attendre à convection principalement à terre pendant la journe . Nous avons mis un 50 – zone de foudre % et un niveau 1 en coulement ascendant persistant vers le Massif Central pourrait induire un cluster avec de gros grêlons isol ( 20 m / s DLS ) . Nous ne voulons pas exclure un vnement de tornade isol avec LCL en dessous de 1 km et un cisaillement accru LL . Interaction des dynamiques milieu / haut et LLJ susmentionn pourrait galement soutenir un arrière – btiment temporelle avec l’excès de pluie , le risque principal . Par consquent, le niveau 1 a t tendu loin dans les terres .

Au-delà de 00Z , les conditions environnementales s’amliorent pour un cluster ctier en dveloppement avec des tendances arrière – btiment. Avec 20-25 m / s DLS et l’augmentation de la SSR , une tempête ctière doit s’organiser et probablement supercellular . Gros grêlons et une tornade isol seront les principaux dangers. Rflexions en cours avec le dveloppement tardif de ce cluster empêcher un excès de prcipitations – mission de niveau pour l’instant. En cas de CI plus tt , l’excès de pluie sera ajout à l’ actuel libell de niveau 1 .

Italy: Tornado risk & Thunderstorms across Napoli, Taranto and Bari. Waterspouts spotted – 270813 1800z

There are lots of thunderstorms in Italy, across Napoli, Taranto and Bari. Heavy rainfall, (large) hail and severe wind gusts are the main threats. An isolated tornado event or waterspout event can’t be ruled out. Keep an eye on the radar. – StormhunterNL

Roma – Trombe marine sul mare di Anzio (27 Agosto 2013)

(Video credit: judanetwork·)

Published on Aug 27, 2013

Due trombe marine si sono unite sul mare di Anzio (ROMA)

Two waterspouts were joined on Anzio (Rome)

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Tromba di aria sul mare di Portici

20 AUG 2013 – ITALY: Non-mesocycl. TORNADO over water (WATERSPOUT) observed over Golfo di Napoli, near Portici, S of Napoli (Naples). Impressive video –

Skywarn Europe

Weather warnings (meteoalarm): Italy

(Image: meteoalarm.eu)

MORE DETAIL: http://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IT-Italy.html

Related

Italy: Tornado in central Sicily 14 August 2013 (Video) – 140813 2103z

Severe Weather Outbreak: Texas to Kansas, Missouri

TheSurvivalPlaceBlog

After locally violent thunderstorms erupt on Sunday, an outbreak of severe weather will threaten lives and property from Texas to Kansas and Missouri Monday through Wednesday.

Interests from the central Plains to Texas will want to monitor weather conditions closely during the first part of next week.

The weather setup through at least the first half of next week will put lives and property at risk. The severe weather outbreak expected is likely to be the worst of the season so far.

The nature of the storm in local areas has yet to be determined, but some locations have the potential to be hit with violent thunderstorms that bring large hail, damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes and flash flooding.

There is also the potential for a few tornadoes to be produced.

The main severe weather event will be preceded by locally violent thunderstorms from the Texas Panhandle to Missouri…

View original post 353 more words

Australia: Tornadoes hit Hobart. Warning of severe storms in SE Tasmania – 091112 1920z

A series of tornadoes have hit Hobart as the weather bureau warns of severe storms in southeast Tasmania.

The Bureau of Meteorology says weak tornadoes have been observed in and around the capital and have been included in a warning about destructive winds, heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones.

“We have had some reports of hailstones and also tornadoes in the southeastern area,” the bureau’s severe weather forecaster, Matthew Michael said.
“The tornadoes that were reported were very weak in severity and quite short-lived.

The main focus of the warning is really the strong winds and the hailstones.”

The Mercury reports schools have been advised to keep students inside or send them home.

Residents were advised to move their cars under cover and avoid driving, walking or riding through flood water.

Mr Michael said a cold southerly stream producing surface winds of a different temperature to higher winds had produced the rare weather event.

Friday, 09 November, 2012 at 06:45 (06:45 AM) UTC RSOE

Video via @ABCEmergency http://t.co/stAZoOjc

Update:

All thunderstorm warnings in Tasmania have now been cancelled.

#Philippines: Disease alert as #flood toll jumps to 85, tropical depression #HELEN concern – Updated 12 Aug 2012 1337 GMT/UTC

At least 19 killed in Philippines Floods

Thursday, 09 August, 2012 at 07:11 UTC RSOE (NB: Newer updates below)

Ten cities and municipalities in Metro Manila and six provinces in Luzon have been placed under a state of calamity due to massive flooding caused by four days of non-stop monsoon rains.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said that areas in Metro Manila that have been placed under a state of calamity were Marikina, Malabon, Navotas, Valenzuela, Muntinlupa, San Juan, Pasig, Pasay, Caloocan and Pateros.

In Central Luzon, the provinces of Bataan, Pampanga, Zambales and Bulacan as well as Laguna and Palawan provinces in Southern Luzon have also been placed under a state of calamity. Quezon City, which has the most number of families affected by floods, has yet to make a calamity declaration.

There are a total of 72,468 people affected by flooding in the city and majority of them or a total of 72,264 are staying in 57 evacuation centers. Quezon City and Marikina City have been hit by greater volume of torrential rains since Sunday night.

A massive evacuation has been ordered in Marikina City due to the overflowing of the Marikina River. A total of 246,808 people have been affected in 17 areas in Metro Manila.

The other regions affected by the monsoon rains were Ilocos, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Mimaropa and Western Visayas.

The NDRRMC said that a total of 454,093 families or nearly two million people in Metro Manila and the five other regions are affected by floods caused by the monsoon rains.

It has also confirmed 19 fatalities, nine of which died in a landslide in Quezon City and eight died from drowning. Flooding in Quezon City and other areas in Luzon were expected to continue due to the overflowing of major dams including La Mesa, Angat and San Roque. The water reserve in Ipo, Ambuklao and Binga dams are near spilling levels.

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

Philippines Red Cross Lifeline Kit

Death toll from Philippines floods rises to 66
Saturday August 11, 2012 – 13:46 EST

The death toll from torrential rains that submerged most of the Philippines capital Manila has risen to 66.

  Al Jazeera’s Marga Ortigas reports from Manila, many of those who were forced out of their homes are now trying to return.

Nearly two weeks of monsoon rains across the Philippines’ main island of Luzon peaked with a 48-hour deluge earlier this week that battered Manila and surrounding regions.

The extra deaths occurred mainly in the provinces during the initial rain from Monday to Wednesday, but government officials in the outlying areas could not immediately report the casualties to Manila headquarters.

Ten people remain missing as the floods, which submerged 80 per cent of Manila earlier in the week, have largely subsided.

Radio Australia’s reporter in Manila, Shirley Escalante, says the massive clean up has begun.

“As floodwaters recede, tonnes of garbage has been left behind littering roads, parks and drains in the capital Manila and surrounding provinces,” Ms Escalante said.

Health officials are warning diseases like leptospirosis and diarrhea could spread easily.

Ms Escalante says authorities have price controlled basic food items like bread, noodles and canned goods, to ensure there’s enough to go around.

Relief effort

But the government says it’s struggling to cope with the scale of the relief effort which is expected to last for weeks.

Tens of thousands of people are continuing to stream into evacuation centres that are already overcrowded and unable to provide enough immediate relief goods.

The Social Welfare Secretary, Corazon Soliman, says local government units are being overwhelmed.

“We have evacuation centres that are congested, that is the whole problem,” she said.

More than 362,000 people were sheltering in evacuation centres on Friday, nearly 50,000 more than on Thursday.

Farmland inundated

Water remains waist-deep across a large part of a vital rice growing region to the north of Manila.

“We need something to eat. I haven’t gone to work or been paid for a week,” said Rogelio Soco, a construction worker and father-of-three in a small farming town outside Manila.

Mr Soco says the floods were the worst the area had seen since a huge typhoon struck in the early 1970s.

Other locals also say they haven’t experienced anything like it for decades.

Around the town of Apalit, formerly green rice paddies have been turned into an ocean of brown water.

‘Inadequate response’

Local non-government organisation Transform Asia has labelled the government’s response inadequate.

“The response really is not good enough,” the group’s chairwoman Reihana Mohideen told Radio Australia’s .

“For example, there are water pumping stations in the area that I went to. They pump out 15,000 litres of water a day and they were completely overwhelmed. They did not have the capacity to deal with the amount of water.”

She said many victims had been living in squatter colonies without proper drainage systems.

“The devastation that you travel through to get to these centres of flooded huts – this is the face of poverty,” she said.

“Housing is inadequate. There’re no proper drainage systems. The roads get flooded so quickly, and you don’t have water catchment to catch and store this water. There’s inadequate power supply.”

Her comments were echoed by urban planner Nathaniel Einseidel, who said the Philippines had enough technical know-how, and access to financing, to solve the ongoing flood problems.

“It’s a lack of appreciation for the benefits of long-term plans. It’s a vicious cycle when the planning, the policies and enforcement are not very well synchronised,” said Mr Einseidel, who was Manila’s planning chief from 1979-89.

“I haven’t heard of a local government, a town or city that has a comprehensive drainage masterplan.”

This week’s rains were the worst to hit Manila since Tropical Storm Ketsana killed 464 people in 2009.

Environment Secretary Ramon Paje warned that the Philippines must prepare for more intense rains caused by climate change, describing the latest deluge as the “new normal”.

– ABC (via http://www.weatherzone.com)

Meanwhile AFP says

 Philippine authorities scrambled to provide food and other emergency provisions Saturday to more than two million people affected by widespread flooding, as the death toll rose to 66, officials said.

The flooding that submerged 80 percent of Manila early in the week has largely subsided, allowing people to return to their homes, but more than 100 low-lying towns and cities to the north remain under water.

Civil defence chief Benito Ramos said the huge displaced population, including 441,000 people crammed in crowded evacuation camps, would need to be fed and taken care of for at least another seven days.

“The bulk of our operations involves relief, but also clean-up,” Ramos told AFP.

“Volunteers are packaging 100,000 food packs for immediate distribution.”

The government’s disaster co-ordination council said it was serving nearly 758,000 people displaced by floods on Saturday, significantly more than the previous day as tens of thousands trickled into evacuation centres overnight.

But with 2.68 million people affected, up from 2.44 million on Friday, many are having to fend for themselves.

In Calumpit, a farming town about 50 kilometres (30 miles) north of Manila, unmarried construction worker Ronaldo Cruz stepped out of his house, stuck in waist-deep floods, to ask for food from better-off neighbours and relatives.

“We’ve been waiting for relief aid, but none has arrived,”

said the 32-year-old, who lives with seven other relatives.

“Perhaps there isn’t enough to go around,” he told AFP.

With evacuation centres packed to capacity and houses inundated by flood water, many residents of Calumpit are forced to live on their rooftops.

The UN World Food Programme said it was providing 52.5 tonnes of high-energy biscuits and hiring trucks to help the government transport other relief supplies.

“WFP is saddened by the humanitarian impact of the non-stop rains over the last week in the Philippines,” its country chief Stephen Anderson said in a statement.

The UN body said it also plans to distribute supplementary food to about 77,000 children in the flooded areas.

The government said Saturday that 66 people had been confirmed killed, up from 60 on Friday.

The Philippines endures about 20 major storms or typhoons each rainy season. But this week’s rains were the worst to hit Manila since Tropical Storm Ketsana killed 464 people in 2009. – Reliefweb

Youtuber “I rode the yellow dump truck from my place to the supermarket. The usual 10-minute ride took 45 minutes because vehicles are carefully treading the flood at 5 kph. LOL! The flood is still widespread in Sandoval Ave., Pasig City.”

See here how people go about their daily lives like one person here making the gas delivery with his motorbike.

12 Aug 2012:

MANILA (AFP) – Emergency relief officials and doctors deployed to flood devastated communities in the Philippines on Sunday to prevent outbreaks of disease as the death toll jumped to 85.

The flooding that submerged 80 per cent of Manila early in the week has largely subsided but more than 150 towns and cities around the capital remain under water, affecting more than three million people.

Amid the ongoing relief operation, the weather bureau warned of a low pressure area developing some 850km to the east in the Pacific Ocean that could turn into a storm and bring more rain.

Many provinces around Manila remained inundated as overflowing dams continued to release water, the national disaster coordinating agency said. Relief workers were dealing with “clogged pipelines and trash everywhere. Sanitation has emerged as a key problem,” Red Cross secretary general Gwendolyn Pang told AFP.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #HELEN

dost_pagasa (Philippines Weather Bureau):

At 5:00PM (PhT) 08/12/12 The active LPA East of Northern Luzon has developed into Tropical Depression #HELEN

At 4:00pm today (PhT) the center of TD “HELEN” was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 750 km E of Casiguran, Aurora (16.7°N 130.2°E). Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center. It is forecast to move West Northwest at 11 kph.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10 – 20 mm per hour (heavy – intense) within the 350 km diameter of the Tropical Depression #HELEN

As of 7:00PM, the center of Tropical Depression #Helen was estimated at 720KM East of Casiguran, Aurora (16.8°N 129.9°E)

TD #HELEN is expected to enhance the HABAGAT that will bring rains over Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao especially the Western section.

As of 6:00PM (PhT), the center of Tropical Depression Helen was est. at 740KM East of Casiguran, Aurora (16.7N, 130.0E).

As of 7:00PM (PhT), the center of Tropical Depression #Helen was estimated at 720KM East of Casiguran, Aurora (16.8°N 129.9°E).

Severe Weather Bulletin No. 1 Issued at: 5:00 p.m (PhT)., 12 August 2012 http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/fcst/pf.pdf

Philippines President Aquino assures Tarlac flood victims of help

By Joelyn G. Baluyut (reliefweb)

TARLAC CITY, Tarlac, Aug11 (PIA) — President Aquino assured monsoon flood victims in his home province of Tarlac that government will help in their recovery.

Speaking before residents in Barangay Apulid in Paniqui town Friday, the Chief Executive said he admires the resiliency of the residents to immediately rise from the tragedy. He added that such trait is a positive sign of brighter things ahead.

Aquino distributed relief goods in the village and in Barangay Sta. Lucia in Capas town together with secretaries of Social Welfare Dinky Soliman, Energy Jose Almendras, Technical Education and Skills Development Authority Joel Villanueva, Presidential Communications Development and Strategic Planning (PCSDO) Ramon Carandang, Aurora representative Sonny Angara, and former party-list representative Risa Hontiveros.

In an interview, one of the evacuees in Brgy. Apulid, Elena Salcedo, 79, said, “This is even worse than typhoons Pedring and Quiel, I was scared but with the President here I am very thankful because he had seen what our current situation is and it brings me hope that soon we’ll be back to our normal lives.”

Meanwhile, Paniqui Mayor Dors Rivilla said, “evacuees will be probably be staying in the evacuation centers for three to four days until the rain stops to ensure their safety.”

In the municipal level, we are doing our best to avert such a situation again and we are asking government to assist. Our area is a catch basin, the mayor explained.

He also cited the construction of P16 billion Balog-Balog Irrigation Multipurpose Project (BBIMP), a megadam in the western part of Tarlac which will help in the mitigation of flooding in low-lying areas of the province.

The Department of Agriculture explained that the project would irrigate about 39,150 hectares of farmlands in the municipalities of Concepcion, Gerona, Pura, Ramos, Paniqui, La Paz, Victoria, and Tarlac City.

A total of 250 and 200 packs were distributed by the DSWD-3 to barangays Apulid and Sta. Lucia evacuation centers. A pack is composed of three kilos of rice, six assorted canned goods, six noodles, and coffee.

Based on Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (PDRRMC) figures, there are now 619 affected families or 2,291 individuals and 1,1864 families or 9,169 individuals covering Paniqui and Capas towns respectively. (CLJD/JGB-PIA 3)

Red Cross steps up rescue and relief operations for flood-stricken families

The Philippine Red Cross has stepped up its rescue and relief operations for flood-stricken families rescuing a total of 7,525 persons and assisting in the evacuation of more than 200,000 individuals with the help of Red Cross 143 volunteers. Persons rescued were from Valenzuela, Rizal, Caloocan, Manila and other affected areas.

The Quezon City Red Cross assisted in the search and rescue of the victims of the landslides in Commonwealth where three persons were given first aid and transported to nearby hospital.

The Red Cross as well has provided hot meals to more than 191,344 persons in various evacuation centers.

PRC Chairman Richard Gordon has directed Red Cross to deploy all life-saving equipment such as amphibian, rubber boats, ambulances and trucks and intensify further its rescue and relief operations to assist more people, especially in worst hit areas.

Gordon will personally hand over relief goods to the University of Sto Tomas Hospital, Epifanio Delos Santos Hospital and University of the East Ramon Magsaysay Hospital for distribution to patients, crew and staff. The PRC Chair will also discuss partnership with hospital officials for better medical and health services to people in distress.

Earlier, the Red Cross has provided generator to Epifanio delos Santos Hospital and assisted as well in providing fuel for the generator of the UERM Hospital.

PRC Secretary General Gwendolyn Pang said more relief operations and hygiene promotion will be conducted in some of the 566 evacuation centers where 49,220 families are still sheltered. The Red Cross will also set up welfare desks in the evacuation centers to provide psychosocial support and other welfare needs of the affected families.

Pang said, the Red Cross will also conduct quick assessment of the situation and furthers needs of the affected families in Metro Manila and other flooded areas.

The Red Cross will continue to work round the clock with more areas still under water.

Red Cross in full action responding to floods

The Philippine Red Cross is responding around the clock to the worsening flood situation in Metro Manila and nearby provinces triggered by continuous southwest monsoon rains, prompting hundreds of families to evacuate to higher grounds.

The Red Cross Emergency Response Teams have so far rescued a total of 250 persons in various flood-stricken areas in Valenzuela, Rizal and Quezon City.

The Red Cross life-saving vehicles including its amphibian, rubber boats, 6 X 6 trucks and ambulances are on full swing surveying flooded areas and assisting in rescue operation and evacuation of families trapped by rising flood water.

PRC Chairman Richard Gordon has directed all chapters and Red Cross 143 volunteers to remain vigilant in responding to the situation and ensure the safety of the affected families.

More than 6,000 persons were served with hot meals and another 2,000 more were provided with food items in 63 evacuation centers that were visited so far, by Red Cross response teams, according to PRC Secretary General Gwendolyn Pang.

Pang also said the Red Cross is now preparing more relief aid for immediate distribution to affected families.

The PRC medical and social worker teams are now on alert for deployment to evacuation areas to ensure the health and well-being of the flood-stricken population, particularly the most vulnerable group.

The PRC Blood services are also on stand by to ensure that blood requirements are met anytime the need arises.

PRC is coordinating closely with MMDA, local government units and other concerned agencies to do more, do better and reach further to affected families.

Twitter updates on the Red Cross response to flooding: https://twitter.com/philredcross

IFRC news bulletin (pdf download) http://t.co/e34cVLLS

The PRC welcomes donations in cash for flood-affected families. You may send or deposit your donations to the following:

Banco De Oro
Peso: 00-453-0018647
Dollar: 10-453-0039482

Metrobank
Peso: 151-3-041631228
Dollar: 151-2-15100218-2

Philippine National Bank
Peso: 3752 8350 0034
Dollar: 3752 8350 0042

Unionbank of the Philippines
Peso: 1015 4000 0201
Dollar: 1315 4000 0090

All Check/Cash for the account of Philippine Red Cross (Swift Codes)
Banco De Oro
BNORPHMM

Bank of the Philippine Islands
BOPIPHMM

Metrobank
MBTCPHMM

Philippine National Bank
-PNBMPHMM

Unionbank of the Philippines
-UBPHPHMM

For your donations to be properly acknowledged, please fax the bank transaction slip at nos. +63.2.527.0575 or +63.2.404.0979 with your name, address and contact number.

SMS and G-Cash

SMS
Text RED<space>AMOUNT to 2899 (Globe) or 4143 (Smart)

G-Cash
Text DONATE<space>AMOUNT<space>4-digit M-PIN<space>REDCROSS to 2882

You can donate the following denominations:
Globe: 5, 25, 100, 300, 500 or 1000
Smart: 10, 25, 50, 100, 300, 500 or 1000.

Related:

Philippine floods: Stranded using Twitter for help (BBC News 8 August 2012)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #HELEN – Published 12 Aug 2012 1350 GMT/UTC

Tropical Storm VICENTE (FERDIE): Southern China particularly Guangxi Province should closely monitor the progress of this storm – Updated 24 July 2012 1440 GMT/UTC

VICENTE (FERDIE) rapidly dissipating over Guangxi Province in China…downgraded to a Tropical Storm.

(Image: wundergound.com)
Typhoon Vicente Tracking Map
(Click image for source)

(Image: usno.navy.mil/JTWC)
Multispectral Satellite Imagery
(Click image for source)

VICENTE will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Northern and Central Luzon particularly the western sections. Breezy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasional to sometimes continuous rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas today.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Guangxi Province should closely monitor the progress of Vicente (Ferdie).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

维森特 (FERDIE) 迅速消退 … … 在中国广西省降至一个热带风暴。

维森特将继续加强西南季风 (aka。Habagat) 跨北部和中部的吕宋岛特别是西方的部分。习习的条件和偶尔有时连续暴雨、 雷暴和狂风骤雨条件将今天预期沿上述领域。
居民和游客沿南中国特别是广西省应密切监察维森特 (Ferdie) 的进展情况。
请不要使用此生或死的决定。这个咨询是额外的信息仅用于目的。请参阅本地警告、 通报、 公告贵国的官方天气机构。
24 July 2012 1512 GMT/UTC:
Weather Channel: Typhoon #Vicente rapidly developed before slamming into China.
天气频道: 台风维森特迅速发展砰进入中国之前。
Photos/recap: http://wxch.nl/PDTWIY
Weather Underground’s Dr. Masters says, “Category 4 #Typhoon #Vicente hits China”
天气地下博士硕士说,”类别 4 台风维森特打中国”
24 July 2012 1550 GMT/UTC: @JournoDannyAsia: HK Observatory has put a Strong Monsoon signal out
24 July 2012 1720 GMT/UTC:

T2K TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PhT Tue Jul 24

External Links for TS VICENTE (FERDIE)
View NOAA-CIRA’s: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0912.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1 Day Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Vicente’s Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA’s Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

thenhbushmantyphoon.blogspot.co.uk

NDRRMC Severe Weather Bulletins for Tropical Depression “FERDIE”

NDRRMC (SitRep 3): 13 incidents occurred due to TD #FERDIE; 2 dead, 6 missing http://fb.me/MnhdGT9a

Flooded roads in Metro Manila, traffic update & more from TV5 (Quezon City, Philippines)

China: 10 dead after record rain pounds Beijing, more rain to come

Awesome view of typhoon Vicente over Hong Kong (@Dom_Lau) http://pic.twitter.com/ZFavC8WM

Hong Kong ‘Storm of the decade’ – thenanfang.com

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

(Image: usno.navy.mil/JTWC)
TC Warning Graphic
(Click image for source)

WTPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (VICENTE) WARNING NR 014    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z --- NEAR 22.3N 112.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 112.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 23.0N 109.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 23.0N 107.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 22.9N 105.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 111.6E.
TYPHOON 09W (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM WEST OF HONG 
KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. TY 09W MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 232000Z AND, AS 
INDICATED IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME 
MORE DISORGANIZED SINCE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TY 09W 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN 
CHINA AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM. THIS IS THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL 
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF 
REGENERATION.//
NNNN
WTPN31 PGTW 240300
联合/MSGID 进行/GENADMIN 台风 WRNCEN 珍珠港喜 / /
琉璃/热带气旋最后警告 / /
RMKS /
1.台风 09W (维森特) 警告 NR 014
01 活跃热带气旋在 NORTHWESTPAC
基于一分钟的平均最高持续的风速
只有有效风半径超过打开过的水
警告的位置:
240000Z—近 22.3N 112.2E
过去的六个小时-12 KTS 300 度运动
位置精确到内 040 NM
基于中心位于结合的位置
卫星和雷达
目前风力分布:
最大持续的风速-100 KT、 阵风 125 KT
只有有效风半径超过打开过的水
重复存款: 22.3N 112.2E
预测:
12 小时,在有效:
241200Z—23.0N 109.6E
最大持续的风速-060 KT、 阵风 075 KT
只有有效风半径超过打开过的水
向量到 24 小时存款: 270 摄氏度 / 11 KTS
24 小时,在有效:
250000Z—23.0N 107.3E
最大持续的风速-035 KT、 阵风 045 KT
只有有效风半径超过打开过的水
作为重要的热带气旋在陆地逐渐消退
向量到 36 小时存款: 270 摄氏度 / 10 KTS
36 小时,在有效:
251200Z—22.9N 105.1E
最大持续的风速-020 KT、 阵风 030 KT
只有有效风半径超过打开过的水
作为重要的热带气旋在陆地消散
备注:
240300Z 位置附近 22.5N 111.6E。
台风 09W (维森特),位于约 110 香港西部 NM
香港,一直跟踪西西北地区在过去的六 12 海里/小时
小时。在大约 232000Z,作为登陆 TY 09W
表示在雷达和卫星图像,已减弱并成为
自从杂乱无章的更多。模型是很好的协议中,TY 09W
将继续向西的南部不平的地面跟踪
中国和消失的 36 头在越南北部。这就是
此系统由联合台风 WRNCEN 珠江上最后警告
港口你好。系统将会密切监察的迹象
REGENERATION.//
NNNN

US: DEBBY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA (NHCAdv16) – 27 June 2012 1010 GMT/UTC

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(Image: NHC NOAA)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
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NWS Tallahasee, FL Local Doppler Radars

Fort Rucker, AL (KEOX)
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The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar at Ft. Rucker, AL.  Click on the image for additional options.�E��E�

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Eglin AFB, FL (KEVX)
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POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY (CLICK HERE FOR JAX BRIEFING)…

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 27 Jun, 2012 9:00 GMT

Tropical Depression DEBBY (AL04) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States
probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

N Atlántico: Alerta de tormenta emitido al 27 de junio 2012 09:00 GMT

Tropical DEBBY Depresión (AL04) se prevé que la huelga de la tierra a la probabilidad siguiente (s) en el plazo de entrega determinado (s):
País alerta amarilla (s) o de la Provincia (s)
los Estados Unidos
probabilidad de TS es del 90% en la actualidad
Amarillo Ciudad Alerta (s) y Ciudad (s)
Orlando (29,0 N, 81,5 W)
probabilidad de TS es del 55% en la actualidad

Nótese que
Alerta amarilla (elevada) es CAT 1 o superior a entre 10% y 30% de probabilidad, o TS anteriormente probabilidad del 50%.
CAT 1 significa que vientos huracanados de fuerza de por lo menos 74 mph, 119 km / ho 64 nudos 1-min sostenida.
TS significa vientos fuerza de tormenta tropical de al menos 39 mph, 63 km / ho 34 nudos 1-min sostenida.

Para información de los pronósticos gráfica y otros detalles por favor visite http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

000
WTNT34 KNHC 270831
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
500 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

…DEBBY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST OF
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.6N 81.0W
ABOUT 25 MI…45 KM SE OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH…17
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…DEBBY
SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM FLORIDA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE…ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTS OF FLORIDA SHOULD SUBSIDE
LATER TODAY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH DEBBY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE LINGERING
RAIN BANDS…MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTCA44 TJSJ 270931
TCPSP4

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA  NUMERO  16
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL042012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM EDT MIERCOLES 27 DE JUNIO DE 2012

…DEBBY MENOS ORGANIZADA MIENTRAS ALCANZA LA COSTA ESTE DEL NORTE
CENTRAL DE FLORIDA…

RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMACION
————————————————–
LOCALIZACION…29.6 NORTE 81.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 25 MI…45 KM AL SURESTE DE ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL…ESTE NORESTE O 75 GRADOS A 10 MPH…17 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA…998 MB…29.47 PULGADAS

VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
——————–
NO HAY VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
—————————————————
A LAS 5:00 AM EDT…0900 UTC…EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL
DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.6 NORTE…LONGITUD
81.0 OESTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A
CERCA DE 10 MPH…17 KM/H. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE
TRASLACION. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA…DEBBY DEBERA ALEJARSE
GRADUALMENTE DE FLORIDA HOY.

VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH…55 KM/H…CON
RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN SU INTENSIDAD
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 998 MB…29.47 PULGADAS.

PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
————————-
MAREJADA CICLONICA…NIVELES ALTOS DE AGUA EN AREAS DONDE LAS AGUAS
NORMALMENTE FLUYEN SOBRE LA COSTA A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DEL
SUROESTE Y NORESTE DE FLORIDA DEBEN DISMINUIR MAS TARDE HOY. PARA
INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA…FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.

LLUVIA…SE ESPERA QUE LAS LLUVIAS ASOCIADAS A DEBBY CONTINUEN
DISMINUYENDO A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA MAS TARDE HOY.
CANTIDADES AISLADAS ADICIONALES DE HASTA UNA PULGADA SON POSIBLES EN
LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE DEBBY…MAYORMENTE SOBRE EL SUR DE FLORIDA.

PROXIMAS ADVERTENCIAS
———————
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA…1100 AM EDT.

$$

PRONOSTICADORES AVILA

000
WTNT44 KNHC 270832
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
500 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

SATELLITE…RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF DEBBY IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING ELONGATED. THE CENTER
IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION…BUT THE AREA
OF MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 075
DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS IN A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
FLORIDA ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL
PROBABLY 30 KNOTS IN A FEW SQUALLS MAINLY OVER WATER.

NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH…AND IN FACT…BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST
WEAKENING IN THE 00 UTC RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS DEBBY AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALLOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEYOND 3
DAYS.

DEBBY IS EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH…AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR
NORTHEAST AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 29.6N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH…OVER WATER
12H  27/1800Z 30.0N  79.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  28/0600Z 30.5N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  28/1800Z 31.0N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  29/0600Z 32.0N  70.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  30/0600Z 35.0N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  01/0600Z 38.0N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 45.5N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT44 TJSJ 270832
TCDAT4

DEBBY DEPRESION TROPICAL NÚMERO 16 DE DEBATE
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042012
500 AM EDT MIERCOLES 27 de junio 2012

Las observaciones de radar … Y SATÉLITE superficie indica que el
CIRCULACIÓN DE DEBBY es cada vez más alargada. EL CENTRO
Es difícil de localizar Dada la falta de organización … PERO LA ZONA
DE PRESION MINIMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE O ESTE-075
GRADOS a 9 nudos en el noreste de la Florida Central. LA MAYORÍA DE LAS PROFUNDIDADES
CONVECCIÓN está en una banda tipo frontal AMPLIACIÓN DEL NORESTE
A TRAVES DE LA FLORIDA Atlántico adyacente. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SON TODAVÍA
Probablemente 30 nudos con una TURBONADAS PRINCIPALMENTE sobre el agua.

NINGUNA DE LAS DIRECTRICES DE INTENSIDAD muestran un aumento significativo EN
Fuerza … Y, de hecho … Tanto el modelo GFS y ECMWF dan a entender
Debilitamiento en el RUN 00 UTC. El pronóstico oficial DEBBY MANTIENE COMO
DEPRESION TROPICAL Y PERMITE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE más allá de 3
DÍAS.

DEBBY está incrustado en flujo del oeste dentro de la base A MEDIADOS DE LA LATITUD
A TRAVÉS DE … y debe seguir para avanzar en la ESTE-NORESTE O
NORESTE DE LO INDICADO POR LOS MODELOS GLOBALES. LA PREVISIÓN OFICIAL
En medio de la GFS y ECMWF MODELOS.

POSICIONES DE PREVISIÓN Y Vientos máximos

INIT 29.6N 81.0W 27/0900Z 30 KT 35 MPH … SOBRE EL AGUA
12H 30.0N 79.4W 27/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30.5N 76.5W 28/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31.0N 73.0W 28/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 32.0N 70.5W 29/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 35.0N 66.5W 30/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 38.0N 62.0W 01/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 45.5N 50.0W 02/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

A man has been captured on film using a wind created by tropical storm Debby to leap over an entire pier at Redington Beach, Florida, according to the Telegraph.

The gale-force winds, which have been measuring up to 50 miles per hour, lift him totally clear of the structure.

The video was taken by onlooker Jay Gartner, who uploaded it onto YouTube on Sunday, and it has since been viewed over 300,000 times. – AOL

Tornado kills 14yr old boy, injures 40, lightning kills farmer in Japan

A teenage boy died, around 40 people were injured and up to 250 houses were damaged Sunday after an apparent tornado hit Ibaraki and Tochigi prefectures, north of Tokyo, local police and firefighters said.

An aerial shot from a Kyodo helicopter shows the path of an apparent tornado that struck Tsukuba, Ibaraki Pref. Sunday afternoon. (Photo: Kyodo)

Thunderstorms also caused lightning damage and temporarily disrupted bullet train services on the Tohoku, Yamagata and Akita shinkansen lines, according to East Japan Railway Co.

The twister, which occurred at around 1 p.m., shattered windows and blew away the roofs of 150 to 200 homes in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, leaving two people seriously wounded, one of whom, a 14-year-old boy, died after being taken to hospital.

The city is located around 50 km northeast of Tokyo.In the city of Moka and the towns of Mashiko and Motegi in Tochigi, around 50 houses were damaged and 10 people were injured, they said.

The Japan Meteorological Agency said local observatories had warned the Tokai, Kanto and Tohoku regions of central, eastern and northeastern Japan to brace for possible tornadoes intermittently from Sunday morning as atmospheric conditions were unstable.

According to the Mito observatory in Ibaraki, a thunderstorm advisory was issued early Sunday for the whole prefecture.

Hailstones fell in Mito, the prefectural capital, at around 1:20 p.m.Following the gusts, which the Mito observatory attributed to either a tornado or downburst, and the thunderstorms, around 20,000 households in Tochigi, Ibaraki and Saitama prefectures suffered power outages, Tokyo Electric Power Co. said.

In Okegawa, Saitama Prefecture, a 40-year-old mother and her 11-year-old daughter fell unconscious after being struck by lightning around 2:20 p.m., police said.

In Uozu, Toyama Prefecture, Yoshihito Yaguramaki, a 64-year-old farmer, was found collapsed in a field and pronounced dead an hour later. Police suspect he was hit by lightning.

Sunday, 06 May, 2012 at 12:30 (12:30 PM) UTC RSOE

Update Sunday, 06 May, 2012 at2040GMT/UTC

Link to set of 9 AP photos showing extensive damage caused by this tornado

http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Tornado-near-Tokyo-kills-1-injures-dozens-3537806.php#src=fb

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     Page last Modified: 20 March, 2012 4:58 PM