United States/ Canada: Tropical Storm Cristobal 07/1500Z 28.7N 90.0W, moving N ~10.25kt. Wind ~45.89kt. 994mb (NHC FL) – 07 Jun 2020 1520Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Cristobal

…CRISTOBAL MOVING CLOSER TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi
River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Florida line
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

Tornado Watch for portions of
Coastal Alabama
Coastal Mississippi
Coastal Waters

National Hurricane Center FL

145206_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

 

 

 

 

Key Msgs

000
WTNT33 KNHC 071447
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020

…CRISTOBAL MOVING CLOSER TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…28.7N 90.0W
ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB…29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi
River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Florida line
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal
was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 90.0 West. Cristobal
is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a gradual turn
toward the north-northwest late today or tonight. On the forecast
track, the center of Cristobal will approach the northern Gulf of
Mexico coast this afternoon, then move inland across Louisiana late
today through Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and
Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain
near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength
is forecast before landfall. Gradual weakening will begin once
Cristobal moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km),
mainly to the east of the center. A Weatherflow site at Bayou
Bienvenue, Louisiana, recently measured a sustained wind of 37 mph
(60 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne…3-5 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…2-4 ft
Ocean Springs MS to Marco Island FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola
Bay, and Tampa Bay…1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the
east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf coast through tonight.

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated amounts to
12 inches. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to
6 inches are expected across portions of the eastern Gulf Coast,
along with the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains
near and in advance of Cristobal. This rainfall will likely lead
to flash flooding and widespread flooding on smaller streams across
portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi
Valley. New and renewed significant river flooding is possible
along the central Gulf Coast and into the Mississippi Valley.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
northern Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the
northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 

TORNADOES

CANADA

 

https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.htmlhttps://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 7 Jun, 2020 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL is currently located near 28.7 N 90.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). CRISTOBAL is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Mobile (30.7 N, 88.1 W)
        probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
    Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)
        probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
    Jackson (32.3 N, 90.2 W)
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    Meridian (32.4 N, 88.7 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for TS is 45% within 9 hours
    Memphis (35.1 N, 90.0 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT23 KNHC 071445
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
1500 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE BORGNE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY
FLORIDA LINE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION…FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE…DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK…PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION…FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE…IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 90.0W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….180NE 180SE 90SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 90.0W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 89.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 30.2N 90.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…180NE 170SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 32.6N 91.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.2N 92.2W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.9N 91.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 43.5N 89.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 47.8N 87.1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 52.6N 83.1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 90.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3…AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

=========================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Zimbabwe: At least 850 people in the Siphepha area in Tsholotsho District were displaced by flooding – Published 27 Feb 2017 1952z (GMT/UTC)

At least 850 people in the Siphepha area in Tsholotsho District were displaced by flooding and subsequently evacuated to a local primary school and hospital by the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, the Civil Protection Unit has said. In its latest situation report released last week, Tsholotsho District was the most affected. “Tsholotsho is arguably the most severely affected district in the country to date and a considerable number of households have lost their homes to flooding or excessive moisture. “The total number of the displaced is 850 to date inclusive of schoolchildren and infants. The local school is also flooded and children cannot access the school. Flooding in the area reached waist level,” said CPU. The CPU said a plan of action for response was already in place. It said the needs or damage assessment — inclusive of mapping of the flooded area — would be conducted by the sub national civil protection structures with the support of the national civil protection committee. It was providing critical basic needs such as food, water and sanitation, shelter and protection, health services and continuity of schooling. There are also ongoing efforts in mobilising the necessary resources for response. The #ZimbabweDefenceForces is providing air rescue services. The #RedCross Society and International Organisation for Migration have also chipped in providing clothing, shoes, school bags, jerry cans, blankets, mosquito nets and toiletries. The Department of Social Welfare provided maize and rice for the community. Germany #AgroAction and #UNICEF provided plastic buckets, bars of soap, water treatment tablets as well as class- room tents while the #ZimbabweRedCrossSociety availed tents, plastic sheeting and sun plates while #PlanInternational provided three vehicles for use and fuel.

RSOE February 27 2017 05:11 PM (UTC).

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 27 Oct 2014 1422z (GMT/UTC)

Updated here: https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/11/21/uk-severe-weather-and-flood-warnings-updated-21-nov-2014-1217z-gmtutc/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK: Ex Bertha bringing wet and windy weather on Sunday, says Met Office – Published 080814 1719z (GMT)

#UK #SEVERE #WEATHER, #FLOOD WARNINGS and #TORRO #TORNADO WATCH. #Bertha #UKstorm #FloodAware #Wx #News… http://t.co/fIcYIK4jr5

— Goaty’s News (UK) (@Goatys_News) August 9, 2014

8 August 2014 – The remnants of Hurricane Bertha will continue to track towards the UK during the next few days.

“The Met Office has been assessing the likelihood of the UK seeing any effects from Bertha by using our own forecast models alongside models from other world-leading forecast centres.

At the moment southern parts of the UK look as though they are most at risk during Sunday, followed by areas of northeast Scotland on Monday. However, there is also the possibility that the depression could move across northern France as a weak feature.

Bertha storm tracks Possible storm tracks for ex Bertha on Sunday   Bertha Impacts Likely impacts from ex Bertha on Sunday

The transition of Bertha from a tropical to an extra-tropical feature is a particularly hard one to forecast but there is increasing confidence that this feature will affect the UK on Sunday, though with very large uncertainty remaining over the track and intensity.

Chief Meteorologist, Paul Gundersen, said: “There is still some uncertainty surrounding this weekend’s weather, with the potential for heavy rainfall, strong coastal winds and large waves on Sunday. However, there is still a chance that the system may pass to the south of the country giving the UK a brighter day.

“Rain and strong winds may well bring disruption, especially across southern parts of the UK, with the potential for more than 50 mm of rain and coastal gusts of over 60 mph. People should stay up to date with the latest Met Office warnings.”

Craig Woolhouse, Environment Agency Flood Risk Manager, said: “Heavy rain on Sunday may lead to localised surface water flooding in some parts of England and Wales. On Sunday and Monday a combination of high spring tides and strong westerly winds bring a risk of large waves and spray and possible flooding to the south west coast of England and along the Severn Estuary. However, the forecast remains uncertain so we advise people to regularly check the flood risk situation over the next few days.

“If you’re travelling to or from holiday then check your flood risk before setting off and don’t drive through flood waters.

“The Environment Agency is continuing to monitor the situation closely along with the Met Office and local authorities. People can sign up to receive free flood warnings, check their flood risk and keep up to date with the latest situation on the GOV.UK website to  check if you are at risk of flooding or follow @EnvAgency and #floodaware on Twitter for the latest flood updates.”

Jeremy Parr, Head of Flood Risk Management, Natural Resources Wales, said: “Our officers will be monitoring forecasts closely over the weekend as the situation in Wales becomes clearer but in the meantime we are advising people to remain alert.

“We are likely to see some very heavy rain on Sunday into Monday, and combined with strong winds and high spring tides, conditions along the coast could be dangerous.  As the forecast remains unsettled, we are advising people to keep an eye on weather forecasts and check the latest flood alerts on our website.”

Ross Macloed,  RNLI Coastal Safety Manager, said: “Extreme wave heights combined with high tides can make some normal coastal activities we take for granted significantly more risky; the force of surging water or breaking waves can easily knock you over and quickly drag you out of your depth and once in the water it can be difficult to get out. As little as one cubic metre of water weighs a tonne and shows that you should never underestimate how powerful the sea can be.

“If you are planning a coastal activity, our advice is to respect the water, and watch the shore from a safe distance and assess the conditions; think about the risk before deciding if  you need to go closer.”

Met Office records show that there are similar examples of intense low pressure systems occurring in August, for example, the 24 August 2005 where an active storm sat off the northwest coast of Scotland bringing strong winds and heavy rain. On the 30 August 1992 a depression swung up from the southwest across the UK giving a wet and windy Bank Holiday weekend.

We will be keeping an eye on the latest outlook for the weather over the next few days and the progress of ex Bertha to keep everyone up to date with the latest information.

Last updated: 8 August 2014″ –  Met Office

Met Office Weather Warnings for mobile

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China: Storms in Guangdong Province leave at least 15 dead, at least 14 injured and 4 missing; more rain due – 020414 1455z

向下滾動為中國譯)(Scroll down for Chinese translation)

The death toll from rainstorms in south China’s Guangdong Province has risen to 15, while four other people remained missing, local authorities said on Wednesday.

Four more people were confirmed to have died on Tuesday, the provincial bureau of civil affairs said in a statement. Days of torrential rain have also left at least 14 injured.

A boat carrying five people capsized near the coast in Shenzhen, which borders Hong Kong. Two women on board went missing.

One woman was found dead on Tuesday. Rescuers are still searching for the other woman. After a brief respite on Tuesday, heavy rain, hailstorms and strong gales returned to batter the province on Wednesday and are forecast for two more days, according to the local meteorological center.

Rain and hailstorms from Saturday to Monday affected 68,800 residents in 69 townships in seven cities and forced the relocation of another 3,902 locals by Tuesday, said the provincial bureau of civil affairs.

The disasters have toppled 71 houses and severely damaged another 5,719, the bureau said, adding they have also caused direct economic losses of 199 million yuan (32 million U.S. dollars).

Local authorities have sent funds, clothes and quilts to residents in flooded areas.
Wednesday, 02 April, 2014 at 13:37 (01:37 PM) UTC RSOE

Heavy rain and giant hailstones batter Southern China

(Video credit: Josept Aron)

Published on Apr 1, 2014

At least 21 people have died and four are reported missing after a weekend of heavy rainfall in south China. This is according to China’s Ministry of Civil A.

Hong Kong Observatory

2 Apr 2014:

A trough of low pressure is bringing rain and thunderstorms to the coastal areas of Guangdong. Locally, there were rain and thunderstorms in the evening. More than 10 millimetres of rainfall were recorded over the northeastern part of the New Territories.

 

Weather forecast for tonight and tomorrow

 

Cloudy with rain and squally thunderstorms. Rain will be heavy at times. Temperatures will range between 19 and 21 degrees. Moderate east to northeasterly winds, fresh at first.

 

Outlook : Becoming bright on Friday and Saturday. There will be thundery showers again early next week.

Chinese:

中國:廣東省風暴保留至少15人死亡,至少14人受傷, 4人失踪,更因雨 – 020414 1455z
2014年4月2日由Goaty新聞

從中國南部的廣東省暴雨造成的死亡人數已上升至15 ,而其他四人仍然失踪,當地政府在星期三說。

四個越來越多的人被證實在週二已經死亡,民政省局在一份聲明中說。連日暴雨還造成至少14人受傷。

一艘載有五人在深圳,毗鄰香港的傾覆海岸附近。兩個女人在船上失踪。

一名女子被發現死在週二。救援人員仍在尋找其他的女人。週二短暫的喘息之後,大雨,冰雹和強風回到連擊全省在週三和兩天預計,根據當地的氣象中心。

雨和冰雹從週六到週一受影響的68,800居民中69個鄉鎮七個城市和強迫的另一個3,902當地人週二搬遷,說民政省局。

在災害倒塌房屋71也嚴重損害另一個5,719 ,局裡補充說,他們還造成1.99億元(32億美元)的直接經濟損失。

地方當局已派出基金,衣服和被子給災區居民。
週三, 2014年4月2日13:37 (下午1時37分) UTC RSOE
大雨和冰雹巨人麵糊中國南方

(視頻來源: Josept阿隆)

發表於2014年4月1日

至少有21人死亡和四個報告後,強降雨在中國南方的一個週末失踪。這是根據中國的民政部A的

香港天文台

2014年4月2日:

的低壓槽帶來雷雨廣東的沿海地區。在當地,有雨和雷暴在晚上。被記錄在新界東北部超過10毫米雨量。

今晚及明日天氣預測

多雲有雨及狂風雷暴。雨水將雨勢有時頗大。氣溫將19和21度之間的範圍。中度東到東北風,新鮮在第一。

展望:上週五和週六成為光明的。下週初將有雷雨了。

Philippines/ Mindanao: Tropical Depression 1401 Lingling/ Agaton 201800Z 07N 128E, almost stationary (JMA) – 200114 2206z

Tropical Depression 1401 Lingling/ Agaton (JMA)

Philippines:

As of today, 20 Jan 2014, there is no tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)”(PAGASA)

(G: Some images, despite being correct at time of edit, for some reason are not updating  on the finished post. Please check time stamps carefully. Most images link to source if clicked upon. Some quick updates may be found in comments at bottom of page)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) West Pacific IR Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1401

TD
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 20 January 2014

<Analyses at 20/00 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N7°00′(7.0°)
E128°00′(128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1008hPa

Unit:

1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

PAGASA-DOSTPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST) Quezon City, PHILIPPINES

Tropical Cyclone Update
As of today, 20 Jan 2014, there is no tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Philippine Red Cross

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

There are no active tropical warnings in the Northwest Pacific/North Indian Ocean, Central/Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere at this time

MARITIME

GALE WARNING NO. 28
For: Strong to gale force winds associated with the surge of Northeast Monsoon.
Issued at 5:00 p.m. today, 20 January 2014To gale force winds is expected to affect the seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Caraga Region.
SEABOARD WEATHER WIND FORCE
(KPH)/(KNOTS)
SEA
CONDITION
WAVE
HEIGHTS
(meters)
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF VISAYAS
(Samar and Leyte)
Cloudy skies withlight to moderate rains (52- 68 /28 – 36) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 5.0
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF SOUTHERN LUZON
(Camarines Provinces, Catanduanes, The Eastern coasts of Albay, Eastern coast of Sorsogon and Eastern coast of Quezon including Polillo Island)
Cloudy skies with light rains (52- 68 /28 – 36) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 5.0
THE SEABOARD OF CARAGA REGION
(Surigao and Agusan del Norte)
Cloudy skies with moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms (52- 63 /28 – 34) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 4.5
THE SEABOARDS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN VISAYAS
(Cebu, Bohol, Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental, Guimaras, Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan and Antique)
Cloudy skies with light to moderate rains (52- 63 /28 – 34) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 4.5
THE NORTHERN SEABOARD OF LUZON, THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON, THE SOUTHERN SEABOARD OF SOUTHERN LUZON
(Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Northern and Eastern coast of Cagayan, Northern coast of Ilocos Norte, Isabela, Aurora, Mindoro Oriental, Marinduque, Romblon, Masbate, Burias Island, Southwestern coast of Albay and of Sorsogon, Southern coast of Quezon and of Batangas)
Cloudy skies with light rains (52- 63 /28 – 34) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 4.5
THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF LUZON
(Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Western coast of Ilocos Norte, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Mindoro Occidental, Western coast of Batangas and Palawan)
Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with light rains (52- 63 /28 – 34) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 4.5

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the sea while larger sea vessels are alerted against big waves.

The next update will be issued at 5:00 a.m. tomorrow

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 201800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 201800.
WARNING VALID 211800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 956 HPA
AT 39N 177W SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 39N 177W TO 39N 174W 38N 172W.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 172W TO 36N 166W 32N 162W.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 172W TO 34N 171W 29N 175W 26N 180E 24N 175E.
WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 1000 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 40N 170W WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 41N 166W WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1008 HPA
AT 37N 143E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 37N 143E TO 37N 147E 35N 150E.
COLD FRONT FROM 37N 143E TO 34N 140E 32N 136E 29N 132E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 49N 171E SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS ALMOST STATIONARY.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 27N 121E 24N 130E 18N 122E 18N 116E 22N 113E 25N 119E 27N
121E FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 10N 107E 14N 109E 14N 113E 08N 110E 10N 107E
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 07N 128E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 27N 147E EAST 25 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 1800

WWHK82 VHHH 201800
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
GALES OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS), SEAS NEAR LUZON AND SEAS NEAR
THE SOUTHERN PART OF VIETNAM.
SYNOPSIS (201800UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
THE INTENSE NORTHEAST MONSOON IS EXPECTED TO BRING GALES TO
THE WARNING AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS AFFECTING SEAS NEAR
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PHILIPPINES.
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER THE GALE WARNING AREAS.
SWELL NE 3 M OVER THE SCS, SEAS NEAR TAIWAN AND SEAS NEAR
LUZON.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
SCATTERED HEAVY SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) OVER SEAS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PHILIPPINES.
ISOLATED SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS WEST OF BORNEO.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1000 M IN SQ SH AND TS.