United States: Tropical Depression NATE 08/1500Z nr 33.1N 87.3W, moving NNE 24mph/21kt 996mb NHC FL – Updated 08 Oct 2017 1800z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression NATE

HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND AS NATE BECOMES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION…
…FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER- NHC

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

National Hurricane Center (FL)

095409_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

095409_earliest_reasonable_toa_34

095409wpcqpf_sm1

 

rb_lalo-animated4

natloop_small

000
WTNT31 KNHC 081449
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nate Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

…HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND AS NATE BECOMES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION…
…FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…33.1N 87.3W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM SW OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 24 MPH…39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB…29.42 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nate
was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 87.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39
km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward
speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, Nate’s center will continue to move inland across the Deep
South, Tennessee Valley, and central Appalachian Mountains through
Monday.

Surface observations indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change
in strength is predicted during the next couple of days, but Nate
is forecast to become post-tropical on Monday or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are expected over the
the Florida Panhandle, and portions of Alabama and Georgia through
this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along portions of the
northern Gulf coast, but should gradually subside this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes will be possible today, mainly from
the Florida Panhandle and eastern Alabama across western and
northern Georgia into the western Carolinas.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico through this evening. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header
WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Brown

LOCAL STATEMENTS

Issuing WFO Homepage Local Impacts Local Statement
Jackson, MS Threats and Impacts 451 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA Threats and Impacts 722 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Atlanta, GA Threats and Impacts 1108 AM EDT Sun Oct 8
Tallahassee, FL Threats and Impacts 1117 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 /1017 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Huntsville, AL Threats and Impacts 1022 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Birmingham, AL Threats and Impacts 1022 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL Threats and Impacts 1029 AM CDT Sun Oct 8

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 8 Oct, 2017 15:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Depression NATE is currently located near 33.1 N 87.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). NATE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

201716n4

201716n_04

Other

 

at201716_5day4

at201716_sat4

 

 

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Southwest Caribbean

Tropical Storm Nate May Hit Mexico and U.S. Gulf Coast as a Strengthening Hurricane

Strengthening Nate Heads into the Gulf and Toward a Saturday Night Landfall

Nate Sweeps Across U.S. Gulf Coast

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTNT21 KNHC 081448
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
1500 UTC SUN OCT 08 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

ALL COASTAL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 87.3W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 87.3W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 88.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.2N 85.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.1N 79.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 43.1N 72.8W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 45.0N 65.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z…ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 87.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER
WTNT31 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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US/ Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm JOSE 20/0900Z nr 38.4N 70.3W, moving NE ~7kt NHC FL – Updated 20 Sep 2017 1200z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm JOSE

…JOSE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS…
…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS – NHC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha’s Vineyard
* Nantucket

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina
northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose.

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

at201712_5day JOSE WUND 20

 

at201712_sat JOSE WUND 20

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

084730_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind JOSE 20

rb_lalo-animated JOSE GOES SAT.gif

 

084730_most_likely_toa_34 JOSE

084730WPCQPF_sm JOSE RAIN

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 60
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

…JOSE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS…
…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…38.4N 70.3W
ABOUT 195 MI…310 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.80 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The tropical storm watch has been discontinued along the coast of
Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha’s Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 38.4 North, longitude 70.3 West. Jose is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through today with a decrease in
forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Jose
is expected to pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast today,
and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area beginning today.

SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several
days in these areas. For more information, please consult products
from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall accumulations through Thursday:

Martha’s Vineyard and Cape Cod…1 to 2 inches.
Nantucket…2 to 4 inches.

These rainfall totals could cause isolated flash flooding.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

NNNN

 

Caribbean_general_map

Maria Threatens Leeward Islands; Jose’s Surf Will Batter Northeast U.S. Beaches

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 M 20 MARITIME
METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0840

WTNT22 KNHC 200840
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 60
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017
0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE COAST OF
LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH… INCLUDING CAPE COD
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA’S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 70.3W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT…….180NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 70.3W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 70.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.1N 69.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.6N 68.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 90NE 70SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…150NE 160SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.5N 67.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 160SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.2N 68.3W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…150NE 130SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 38.9N 69.4W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…100NE 80SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 39.2N 69.5W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 39.5N 68.9W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.4N 70.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Hurricane IRMA signpost

CAT 1 HURRICANE IRMA

094751_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind IRMA 11

rb_lalo-animated irma 11

On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move near the northwestern coast of the #Florida Peninsula this morning, cross the eastern Florida Panhandle into southern #Georgia this afternoon, and move through southwestern Georgia and eastern #Alabama tonight and Tuesday – NHC 11/0900utc

Signpost – Please follow this link: https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2017/09/11/united-states-cat1-hurricane-irma-110900z-update-from-nhc-and-others-updated-11-sep-2017-1111z-gmtutc/

Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Gert 17/1500Z nr 43.2N 50.0W, moving ENE 35 knots(NHC FL) – Updated 17 Aug 2017 1500z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE GERT

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

……..GERT RACING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY……NHC FL

⚠️ Life-threatening surf and
rip currents will continue to affect the NE coastof US and Atlantic Canada through
tonight.

at201708 Hurr Gert wund

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

143921_5day_cone_with_line_and_windNHC

000
WTNT33 KNHC 171433
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gert Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

…GERT RACING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…43.2N 50.0W
ABOUT 685 MI…1100 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 285 MI…460 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 40 MPH…65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.80 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gert was located
near latitude 43.2 North, longitude 50.0 West. Gert is moving toward
the east-northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours. Gert is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later
today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Gert will continue to affect the coast
of the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada through
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 

=============================================================================

CANADA

Tropical Cyclone Information Statements

8:55 AM ADT Thursday 17 August 2017
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Newfoundland and Labrador:

  • Newfoundland

For Hurricane Gert.

The next information statement will be issued by 3:30 p.m. NDT.

Hurricane Gert will race across the Southern Grand Banks today with no direct impacts to Canadian land areas. Hurricane force winds are not expected over the Grand Banks.

1. Summary of basic information at 09:30 a.m. NDT.

Location: Near 42.3 North 51.7 West.

About 497 kilometres south-southeast of Cape Race.

Maximum sustained winds: 148 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: East-northeast at 76 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 972 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

A special weather statement highlights the possibility of abnormal variations in the tides.

a. Wind.

Any significant winds from Gert are expected to remain well offshore.

b. Rainfall.

Some moisture from Gert will feed into an approaching non-tropical weather system near eastern Newfoundland. This system will reach Newfoundland on Thursday and amounts of 25 to 50 mm are forecast over portions of eastern and northern Newfoundland.

c. Surge/Waves.

Long period swells from Gert will reach 2 to 4 metres along south-facing coastlines of Newfoundland later today, with the highest waves likely along the southern Avalon peninsula. These swells could also lead to dangerous rip currents. Significant wave heights of 3 to 5 metres are expected over the Grand Banks on this afternoon. The highest waves from Gert will remain south of Canadian waters.

In addition, Hurricane Gert may cause a series of rapid changes in water levels in harbours and inlets from the Avalon Peninsula north to Trinity Bay for a couple of hours. The most likely time ranges from late this afternoon into this evening. High tide will be occurring late this afternoon for most areas, so there is a risk for minor flooding near and after high tide.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

The latest track for Gert has it passing over the extreme southern Grand Banks today and transitioning to a very intense mid-latitude storm as it passes east of our forecast waters. Gale to storm force winds are expected over southernmost portions of the Grand Banks, with hurricane force winds remaining just south of the Grand Banks. Gale and Storm warnings are in effect for the southern Grand Banks.

Forecaster(s): Mercer/Murtha/Couturier

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

Weather Warnings(link)

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

Gert Canada

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

201708N TSR!

(Image: TSR)

201708N_0 TSR2 17

(Image: TSR)

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 nhc

(Image: NHC FL)

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 150831

WTNT23 KNHC 171433
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082017
1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 50.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT……. 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 0NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT……. 90NE 150SE 120SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 300SE 420SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 50.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.2N 52.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 46.0N 43.6W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 150SE 120SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 49.3N 37.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 150SE 120SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 51.3N 35.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 52.4N 34.3W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 60SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.2N 50.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

 

 

000
AXNT20 KNHC 150926
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
526 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

Hurricane Gert is centered near 31.8N 72.5W at 15/0900 UTC or
about 375 nm W of Bermuda moving N at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt
with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
from 30N-32N between 70W-73W. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere from 28N-33N between 70W-74W. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
for more details.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

A tropical wave is W of the Cape Verde islands associated with a
1012 mb low pressure located near 14N28W. The wave axis extends
from 18N27W to the low to 09N28W and has been moving W at 10 kt.
The wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear, however
intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave environment
limit deep convection. Shallow moisture confined to the vicinity
of the monsoon trough and upper level diffluent wind support
scattered moderate convection SW of the low center from 10N-14N
between 28W-33W. Slow development of this system is anticipated
during the next day or two, but conditions are forecast to become
a little more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by later in
the week while the system moves westward over the tropical
Atlantic.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
20N51W to 09N53W, moving W at 25 kt. The wave is entering a
region of moderate to strong vertical wind shear and is being
severely affected by extensive Saharan dry air and dust, which is
hindering convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
20N64W to 10N66W, moving W at 25 kt. The wave is in a region of
strong vertical wind shear and dry air subsidence, which is
hindering deep convection at the time. Shallow moisture observed
in CIRA LPW imagery and upper level diffluent flow ahead of the
wave axis in the N-central Caribbean support isolated showers over
northern Puerto Rico and adjacent waters as well as the Mona
Passage and E Dominican Republic.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 12N16W
to 14N28W to 11N42W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
extends from 11N43W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N60W.
Numerous heavy showers and scattered tstms are coming off the W
African coast associated with the next tropical wave. The
convection extends from 05N to 11N E of 18W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 15N between 34W and 46W associated with
a 1012 mb low located near 11N39W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, which along with
dry air subsidence support mainly fair weather conditions.
A broad upper level low is centered just N of the Yucatan
Peninsula, which supports isolated showers there and in the
Yucatan Channel. Diffluent flow in the NW periphery of the low
support similar shower activity off the SE coast of Louisiana and
Mississippi. Winds are gentle to moderate and from the S-SE in the
western half of the basin and light variable elsewhere. The ridge
will remain in place across the Gulf waters the next couple of
days. A surface trough will develop each evening across the
Yucatan Peninsula shifting W to the Bay of Campeche during the
overnight hours. Locally higher winds can be expected west of the
trough axis.

CARIBBEAN SEA…

A tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean. Please
see section above. The tropical wave will continue to propagate
westward over Puerto Rico this morning, then will move over
central Caribbean waters tonight. Isolated showers are occurring
ahead of the wave axis over northern Puerto Rico and adjacent
waters, the Mona Passage and E Dominican Republic. This convection
is mainly due to shallow moisture and a diffluent wind environment
aloft associated with an upper level low over central Atlc waters.
A broad upper level low centered just N of the Yucatan Peninsula
support isolated showers in the Yucatan Channel extending to NW
Caribbean waters N of 17N W of 80W. Scattered heavy showers and
tstms are over Belize and northern Guatemala associated with the
passage of a tropical wave with axis currently moving across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, Mexico. Otherwise, fresh to near gale force
winds are in the south-central basin forecast to continue through
Thursday.

…HISPANIOLA…

An upper level low over the central Atlc will drift WSW to the north
and across the Island over the next couple of days. This low aloft
along with the passage of a tropical wave will support scattered
to isolated showers over the Island and adjacent waters through
Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…

Scattered showers and tstms are N of 28N between 70W and 74W associated
with the rainbands of Hurricane Gert centered north of the area.
See Special features for further details. Otherwise, the
remainder basin generally N of 20N is under the influence of the
Azores high, which supports fair weather. For information about
tropical waves, see section above.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

United States (FL): Tropical Storm EMILY 311800Z nr 27.6N 82.2W, moving E at 10 mph (NHC FL) – Published 31 Jul 2017 1825z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm EMILY

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Englewood to Bonita Beach Florida

National Hurricane Center (FL)

 

000
WTNT31 KNHC 311748
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emily Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

…EMILY LOCATED INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA…
…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA…

 

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.6N 82.2W
ABOUT 30 MI…50 KM SE OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM SW OF BARTOW FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 85 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Anclote River
southward to Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Englewood to Bonita Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely within the warning area, in this case within the next few
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emily was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 82.2 West. Emily is
moving toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue this afternoon. A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed are expected by tonight
and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Emily will
continue to move farther inland over the west-central Florida
peninsula this afternoon, and move across central Florida through
tonight. Emily is forecast to move offshore of the east-central
Florida coast Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Emily is expected to weaken to a tropical depression
while it moves across the Florida peninsula this afternoon and
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km),
mainly southeast through south of the center. A wind gust to 38 mph
was recently observed in Punta Gorda, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west coast of central
Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with isolated amounts
up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central and south Florida,
1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized amounts of up to 4
inches possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area
through this afternoon.

TORNADOES: A brief tornado could occur across the central and
southern Florida Peninsula today, with isolated waterspouts
possible over the coastal waters of southwestern Florida.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1434

WTNT21 KNHC 311434
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062017
1500 UTC MON JUL 31 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO BONITA BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 82.8W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 20NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 82.8W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 83.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 27.7N 81.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 28.9N 79.6W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.5N 77.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.2N 75.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.3N 70.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 37.7N 63.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 82.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Gulf of Mexico: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three 20/1200Z nr 25.4N 90.3W, moving NW 08 kt (NHC FL) – Published 20 Jun 2017 1218z (GMT/UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AL03)

(Future TS Cindy)

A Tropical Storm Warning for…Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center FL

000
WTNT33 KNHC 201138
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
700 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

…DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.4N 90.3W
ABOUT 265 MI…430 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 300 MI…485 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* West of Cameron to High Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
25.4 North, longitude 90.3 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through Wednesday, with a turn toward the north expected
Wednesday night or Thursday. On the forecast track, the disturbance
is expected to be near the Louisiana coast late Wednesday or
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the
coast.

Satellite imagery shows that the center of the disturbance is
gradually become better defined, and it is likely that the system
will become a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
NOAA buoy 42001 just reported a pressure of 1000.6 mb (29.54
inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
10 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday
morning. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest
Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday morning.

STORM SURGE: Inundations of 1 to 3 feet are possible along the
coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight
from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 Jun, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm AL03 is currently located near 24.8 N 90.1 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). AL03 is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 35% currently
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
    Houston (29.8 N, 95.4 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201146
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
714 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

The center of Tropical Storm Bret, at 20/1200 UTC, is near 11.1N
63.6W, or about 17 nm to the ENE of La Isla de Margarita of
Venezuela. It is moving WNW westward, 290 degrees, 18 knots. The
maximum wind speeds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 knots. The
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Convective precipitation:
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Caribbean
Sea from 10N to 16N between 60W and 68W. Please read the NHC
Potential Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public
Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC for more details.

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three at 20/1200 UTC,
is near 25.4N 90.3W, about 230 nm to the SSW of the mouth of the
Mississippi River. It is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 8 knots. The
maximum wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. The
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Convective precipitation:
Scattered moderate to strong is in the waters from 26N to 30N
between 83W and 90W, and from 25N south between 83W and 87W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers inland areas
and coastal waters areas from the northern half of Guatemala
into the southern half of the Yucatan Peninsula, including in
the coastal waters of the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Please read the
NHC Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/ Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/35W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
03N to 08N southward between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/45W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, most
probably related to the ITCZ, from 06N to 08N between 40W and
46W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/71W from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
20N to 21N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N southward
between Puerto Rico and 73W.

…MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to
06N33W, and 03N43W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong
from 04N to 12N between 12W and 23W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 01N to 06N between 25W and 31W.

…DISCUSSION…

…THE GULF OF MEXICO…

A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough passes through southern
Louisiana, to a 26N94W cyclonic circulation center, to the Mexico
coast near 25N98W and 20N105W in Mexico. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in much of the
Gulf of Mexico, from 20N northward from 90W westward.

…CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD…

LIFR: none.

IFR: KGRY and KATP.

MVFR: KVQT, KMDJ, and KMIS.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA…

TEXAS: MVFR in McAllen, and in Huntsville. LOUISIANA: occasional
MVFR and areas of light rain from Patterson eastward to Lake
Pontchartain, and southeastward into the SE corner of the state.
MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in Natchez. light rain and LIFR in Pascagoula.
ALABAMA: MVFR and light rain in parts of the Mobile metropolitan
area. drizzle in Gulf Shores. light rain and LIFR in Fort Rucker
and Dothan. FLORIDA: rain, heavy at times, and LIFR conditions,
from Perry westward. LIFR/IFR around the Tampa/St. Petersburg
metropolitan area.

…THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of
the Caribbean Sea, with a 14N68W Caribbean Sea cyclonic
circulation center. Tropical Storm Bret is set to move into the
SE corner of the Caribbean Sea during the next 24 hours.

The Monsoon Trough extends from 09N74W in Colombia, through
Panama, northwestward through Costa Rica, and beyond, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 15N southward from 77W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 20/0000 UTC…according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES…MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC…are 1.06 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.10 in Curacao.

…HISPANIOLA…

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow, from an inverted
trough, is moving across the area. Rainshowers and thunder still
are possible across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS…for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Punta Cana: rain and thunder. VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist
of cyclonic wind flow, with the current N-to-S oriented trough.
Expect southerly wind flow during the first half of day two,
followed by anticyclonic wind flow during the second half of day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that day one will
consist of the rest of the inverted trough moving through the area
completely, during day one. Day one will end with SE wind flow
moving across Hispaniola. Expect SE wind flow during day two, with
an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that day one will consist of SE-to-E wind flow.
Expect cyclonic wind flow with a separate inverted trough, during
day two. Hispaniola will be on the southern side of an E-to-W
oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge.

…THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…

An upper level trough is anchored by a cyclonic circulation
center that is about 770 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico, to a 14N68W
Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation center. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
20N to 21N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N southward
between Puerto Rico and 73W. Rainshowers and thunder still are
possible across Hispaniola.

An upper level trough passes through 32N32W to 21N35W. A cold
front passes through 32N24W to 25N41W and 31N57W. Convective
precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers cover the area that is from 24N northward between 22W
and 60W, and elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward.
Widely scattered moderate is from 29N to 32N between 55W and 58W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific/ Mexico/ Baja California: Hurricane ODILE 15E: 131800Z nr 16.6N 106.0W, moving NW at about 4.34 knots (NHC) – Published 130914 2030z (UTC)

Hurricane Odile

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

…ODILE GETTING STRONGER…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 131752
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

…ODILE GETTING STRONGER…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…16.6N 106.0W
ABOUT 200 MI…320 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI…810 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…977 MB…28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ODILE SINCE A HURRICANE WATCH OR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM PDT…1800 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST. ODILE HAS
RECENTLY MOVED LITTLE, BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/H…LATER TODAY. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A
FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CORE OF ODILE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT…AND PASS NEAR
OR SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH…140 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES…315 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB…28.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

SURF…SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

TSR logoNE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Sep, 2014 21:00 GMT

Hurricane ODILE (15E) currently located near 17.0 N 106.2 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Storm Tracker Map

Other Reports

 Odile becomes a hurricane– Extract

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:34 PM GMT on September 13, 2014
“In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Odile became the 11th hurricane of season Saturday morning, intensifying to a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds at 11 am EDT. Satellite loops show that Odile continues to grow more organized, but the hurricane’s heavy rains are remaining offshore of Mexico. Odile may be undergoing a period of rapid intensification that will take it to at least Category 2 strength; the 12Z Saturday run of the SHIPS model gave Odile a 55% chance of intensifying by 30 mph in 24 hours. While all of the reliable computer models show Odile will track northwest and remain offshore of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula, just a slight deviation to the east would bring tropical storm conditions to the coast. The 11 am EDT Saturday NHC Wind Probability Forecast gave Cabo San Lucas on the tip of the Baja Peninsula a 51% chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph , and a 6% chance of hurricane-force winds. As Odile passes southern Baja on Monday, the computer models grow more divergent in their forecast for the hurricane’s track, with several reliable models (the European and UKMET) showing landfall over the Central Baja Peninsula. The GFS model keeps the storm out to sea. Regardless of the track, tropical moisture flowing northwards from Odile’s circulation is likely to bring heavy rains to Northern Mexico and the Southwest U.S. by the middle of the week.” – Dr. Jeff Masters

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1455

WTPZ25 KNHC 131455 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
1500 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
. LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ODILE SINCE A HURRICANE WATCH OR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.0W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…….100NE 150SE 170SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.0W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 105.8W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.3N 106.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…110NE 160SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.9N 108.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT…120NE 160SE 160SW 100NW.

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1730

FZPN02 KWBC 131730
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 15.

.WARNINGS.

…STORM WARNING…
.POST-TROPICAL FENGSHEN 56N171W 961 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 55N174W TO 56N178W TO 60N179W. BETWEEN 120 AND 300
NM S QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. WITHIN 180 NM
N SEMICIRCLE…240 NM E…540 NM S…AND 420 NM SW QUADRANTS AND
ALSO WITHIN 240 NM SW OF THE FRONT…WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12
TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 45N TO 61N BETWEEN 156W AND
175E…WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL FENGSHEN 56N163W 978 MB. BETWEEN
300 NM SW AND 480 NM S QUADRANTS…EXCEPT WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 46N
TO 60N BETWEEN 152W AND 173W…WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20
FT…EXCEPT SEAS TO 10 FT N OF THE LOW CENTER.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL FENGSHEN 59N161W 992 MB. FROM
53N TO 58N BETWEEN 151W AND 165W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14
FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.FRONT EXTENDS FROM 60N150W TO 57N148W TO 45N150W. WITHIN 240 NM
NE OF THE FRONT S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 61N148W TO 57N144W TO 50N144W.
WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT S OF 57N SE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10
TO 12 FT. WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 57N WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 59N140W TO 54N139W. WITHIN 60 NM E
OF THE FRONT SE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 42N151E 997 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. FRONT EXTENDS FROM 44N160E
TO 40N160E. WITHIN 180 NM NE AND N OF THE FRONT E TO SE WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N160E 1002 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N177E 1007 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.LOW 33N149W 1009 MB DRIFTING SE. BETWEEN 180 AND 360 NM E
SEMICIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 31N147W 1008 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 46N146W TO 39N150W. IN AN AREA
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A LINE FROM 46N148W TO 38N155W N WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 36N147W 1007 MB. WITHIN 360 NM NW
QUADRANT N WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N179E 1009 MB WITH FRONT SW FROM LOW TO
36N163E. WITHIN 300 NM S QUADRANT AND 120 NM E OF THE FRONT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N167W 1013 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 42N170E TO 40N164E TO 36N160E.
WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE FRONT S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 180 NM E OF
A LINE FROM 52N150W TO 59N151W AND FROM 37N TO 44N W OF 169E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 41N TO 47N BETWEEN 164E AND
178E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 49N BETWEEN 176W AND
169E.

.HIGH 52N137W 1024 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 54N135W 1019 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 50N135W 1015 MB.

.HIGH 39N179E 1026 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 39N173W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 37N172W 1024 MB.

.FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT SEP 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN SEP 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON SEP 15.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 16.6N 106.0W 980 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 13
MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT
GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NE…150
NM SE…170 NM SW AND 90 NM NW QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 270 NM S AND 180 NM N SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 25 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 270 NM SW QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 09N TO
20N BETWEEN 99W AND 111W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 18.9N 108.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 160 NM S SEMICIRCLE…120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 330 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N AND
360 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER AREA FROM 08N TO 22N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 22.1N 111.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 140 NM NE…150 NM SE…130 NM SW AND 100 NM NW
QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 360 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 35 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NW AND
300 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. FROM
11N TO 17N BETWEEN 108W AND 116W SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO
14 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 100W AND 119W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 24.4N 114.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ODILE NEAR 26.5N 116.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ODILE NEAR 27.5N 117.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

UPDATED FOR LATEST ADVISORY

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E NEAR 16.0N 117.2W 1007 MB AT 1500
UTC SEP 13 MOVING ESE OR 110 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 45 KT. WITHIN 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 113W
AND 122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SIXTEEN-E NEAR 15.5N
114.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 270 NM
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM
10N TO 18N BETWEEN 112W AND 122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SIXTEEN-E NEAR 18.4N
110.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 90 NM
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS MERGED WITH AREA DESCRIBED
IN WARNING SECTION.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC SAT SEP 13…

.HURRICANE ODILE…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE
AND 300 NM SE SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 108W AND 117W.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N79W TO 10N89W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N93W
1007 MB TO 14N95W..RESUMES FROM T.D. SIXTEEN-E TO LOW PRES NEAR
10N132W 1011 MB TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM N AND 240 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM N AND 180 NM S
OF TROUGH W OF 131W.

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 13 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 14 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 15 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 12N144W 1008 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. TROUGH FROM 11N140W TO LOW
TO 09N149W TO 07N166W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 155W AND 160W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN
210 NM OF LOW AND TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 12N146W 1008 MB. TROUGH FROM 09N140W TO
LOW TO 08N154W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 11N149W 1008 MB. TROUGH FROM 09N140W TO
LOW TO 06N162W.

.LOW 15N172W 1008 MB MOVING W 10 KT. TROUGH FROM LOW TO 08N178E
TO 04N175E MOVING W SLOWLY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 180
NM OF LOW AND TROUGH W OF 178E…FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 171W
AND 174W…AND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 163W AND 171W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 14N179W 1007 MB. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
04N173E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. TROUGH FROM 10N174E TO
17N178E.

.FRONT FROM 30N146W TO 28N151W TO 28N155W TO 29N159W MOVING SE
SLOWLY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF FRONT E OF
155W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N144W TO 26N148W TO 25N157W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N142W TO 23N150W TO 23N155W.

.WEAKENING FRONT FROM 30N179E TO 28N172E NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED.

.TROUGH FROM 29N166W TO 28N169W TO 27N173W NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.RIDGE FROM 30N164E TO 28N160E NEARLY STATIONARY.

.RIDGE FROM 25N140W TO 23N146W TO 24N155W TO 26N167W MOVING S
SLOWLY.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 8 FT OR LESS OVER ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 167W AND 171W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 03N TO 12N W OF 173E…FROM 14N TO
27N W OF 174E…FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 147W AND 158W…WITHIN
60 NM OF 27N174W…AND ELSEWHERE S OF 10N BETWEEN 166W AND 180W.

$$

.HONOLULU HI.=

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Bullying Study: It Does Get Better For Gay Teens

Not ‘so gay’…..Casual homophobia helps to create an environment in which aggressive homophobia, hate crime, bullying & suicide can flourish.

Be aware….The word ‘gay’ and other words (in a derogatory sense are used commonly now without… anyone even noticing or being shocked about it – that is the real shocker. People will say that not everyone means it in a bad way, but that’s not the point. It is still a derogatory word for gay people and its widespread use on in social media any elsewhere is reflective of the issues gay people face daily.

Related:

Bullied Gay Teen Found Hanging In Playground Dies After Being Taken Off Life Support

WCCO | CBS Minnesota

CHICAGO (AP) — It really does get better for gay and bisexual teens when it comes to being bullied, although young gay men have it worse than their lesbian peers, according to the first long-term scientific evidence on how the problem changes over time.

The seven-year study involved more than 4,000 teens in England who were questioned yearly through 2010, until they were 19 and 20 years old. At the start, just over half of the 187 gay, lesbian and bisexual teens said they had been bullied; by 2010 that dropped to 9 percent of gay and bisexual boys and 6 percent of lesbian and bisexual girls.

The researchers said the same results likely would be found in the United States.

In both countries, a “sea change” in cultural acceptance of gays and growing intolerance for bullying occurred during the study years, which partly explains the results, said study co-author…

View original post 465 more words

Remnants of #Sandy continue to weaken over Pennsylvania – 311012 1300Z

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com)
Five Day Forecast Map
(Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com)
Storm-Centered Satellite Image
(Click image for source)

US NWS Long Range Radar

WNYC interactive map (updates with the latest forecast of the storm’s path, based on data from the National Hurricane Center) (link)

NWS radar Loop from Pittsburgh, PA
(Click image for source)

NWS radar Loop from State College, PA
(Click image for source)

NWS radar Loop from Northern Indiana
(Click image for source)

NWS radar Loop from Cleveland, OH
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS NOAA)
Caribou, ME Radar Long Range Base Reflectivity
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS NOAA)
Portland, ME Radar Long Range Base Reflectivity
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS NOAA)
Boston, MA Radar Long Range Base Reflectivity
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS NOAA)
Upton, NY Radar Long Range Base Reflectivity
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS NOAA)
Mt. Holly, NJ Radar
Long Range Base Reflectivity
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS NOAA)
Dover Air Force Base, DE Radar Long Range Base Reflectivity
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS NOAA)
Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Base Reflectivity
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS NOAA)
Newport/Morehead, NC Radar Long Range Base Reflectivity
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS NOAA)
Wilmington, NC Radar
Long Range Base Reflectivity
(Click image for source)

Fernanda Viégas and Martin Wattenberg, data visualization experts at Google, have created a dynamic map infographic that animates the current wind patterns across the U.S. It was launched as a personal project a few months ago, but it’s especially useful in a situation like this.

(Image: poynter.org)
Click image to see the live wind map in action
(Use official sources for wind information when it matters)

New York

(Photo : GIS.NYC.GOV)
NYC Hurricane Evacuation Zone & Shelters
(Click image for large interactive map

MSNBC reports Post-tropical Storm #Sandy Center just made landfall near Atlantic City New Jersey

Sandy Makes Landfall

Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy made landfall at 8pm ET on October 29, 2012 about 5 miles southwest of Atlantic City, NJ, as seen in this NOAA GOES-13 satellite colorized infrared image from the same time. Official projections from the National Hurricane Center have the storm moving westward through Pennsylvania and then moving north into New York. The change in designation from hurricane to post-tropical cyclone is due to a continued deterioration of the convective center of the system, characteristic of tropical cyclones and hurricanes. However, Sandy is just as dangerous – sustained 80 mph winds along with heavy rainfall, surge, and coastal and inland flooding are expected as this storm continues to move inland.

What to do after a hurricane (ready.gov)

Let family members know you’re ok during times of disaster Red Cross Safe & Well site (link)

American Red Cross hurricane preparedness page

US: FIND RED CROSS SHELTER (Nationwide) http://t.co/a7ocPSPO

9,000 people spent Tuesday (30 Oct) night in 171 Red Cross shelters in 13 states. You can help: here

Red Cross Hurricane App – Get it here:

rdcrss.org/MZR7Bg  http://lockerz.com/s/230306748

Virginia Hurricane Shelters updated

Google crisis response:

Map with power outages, shelters, weather and more
State info: CT · DE · MA · MD · ME · NC · NH · NJ · NY · PA · VA · VT
NYC info: nyc.gov Evacuation Zone Finder Notify NYC alerts Transit

31 Oct 2012 New York City: Limited subway service restored starting at 2PM Follow https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo for specific line updates

Gov Cuomo: CORRECTION: Subways will be starting tomorrow morning, not 2PM today

American Red Cross need IMMEDIATE BLOOD & PLATELET donations to help those affected by Hurricane Sandy. http://www.redcrossblood.org/sandy

American Red Cross Blood Locations

United States:

WTNT33 KWNH 310902
TCPAT3

REMNANTS OF SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL182012
0500 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

…REMNANTS OF SANDY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER PENNSYLVANIA…

SUMMARY OF 0500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATION

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
ALONG MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COASTS.

FLOOD AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES…WARNINGS…AND ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA…WESTERN
MARYLAND…WEST VIRGINIA…EASTERN TENNESSEE…EASTERN
KENTUCKY…AND EXTREME WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING WATCHES AND
WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 0500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THERE WAS NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE
CIRCULATION FOR THE REMNANTS OF SANDY.  SANDY HAS WEAKENED INTO A
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

HAZARDS
——-
WIND…STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES.

STORM SURGE…ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ALONG
THE COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE DAY.  IN
PORTIONS OF CHESAPEAKE BAY…NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST
COULD STILL BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS AROUND THE TIME OF THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND:

UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY…1 TO 2 FEET.

FRESHWATER FLOOD WATERS ORIGINATING IN THE UPPER POTOMAC FROM THE
RAINS OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TIDAL
POTOMAC…RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

DUE TO STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS…COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES IS POSSIBLE.

RAINFALL…ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ALSO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL…ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO FAR WESTERN
MARYLAND AND SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

RAINFALL TOTALS
—————
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 04 AM EDT

…WASHINGTON DC…
WASHINGTON 5.1 NW                    5.83
WASHINGTON/NATIONAL                  4.84

…DELAWARE…
GEORGETOWN                          10.20
DOVER 6.4 WNW                        9.62
MILFORD                              9.55
INDIAN RIVER ACRES                   9.49
REHOBOTH BEACH                       9.37
CLAYTON 6.6 W                        8.62
DOVER AFB                            8.47
DELANEY CORNER                       8.33
MILTON                               8.30
SMYRNA 2.7 SSE                       8.30
SEAFORD 2.3 SSE                      8.27
FELTON 3.6 NE                        8.00
DOVER                                7.98
VIOLA                                7.84
GEORGETOWN 5.8 W                     7.76

…MASSACHUSETTS…
FITCHBURG                            3.85
NORTH ASHBURNHAM                     3.70
PEPPERELL                            3.30
ASHBURNHAM                           3.20
AYER                                 3.11
EAST MILTON                          3.03
LEOMINSTER 1.5 S                     2.92
NATICK 1.7 NNE                       2.85
NORTON 1.8 NNE                       2.80
ACTON 1.3 SW                         2.76
BEDFORD/HANSCOM FIELD                2.40
MILLIS 0.6 SSE                       2.65
NORTHBOROUGH 0.6 SSE                 2.60
NORWOOD 1.3 NW                       2.59

…MARYLAND…
EASTON 0.7 NNW                      12.55
1 NNW EASTON                        12.49
GREENSBORO 1.4 ENE                  10.53
QUEENSTOWN 2.6 S                     9.89
TRAPPE 3.5 NE                        9.78
BISHOPVILLE 3.1 E                    9.48
DENTON 5.8 WSW                       9.18
PRINCESS ANNE 4.4 WSW                8.81
PASADENA 2.6 ESE                     8.60
PATUXENT RIVER NAS                   8.32
LA PLATA 5.8 SE                      8.23
SALISBURY RGNL ARPT                  7.55
OCEAN CITY MUNI ARPT                 7.22
BALIMORE SCIENCE CENTER              7.18
ANNAPOLIS – US NAVAL ACADEMY         7.09
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTL ARPT       6.67

…NORTH CAROLINA…
SALVO 0.9 NNE                        8.09
AVON 0.7 NE                          8.00
COROLLA 3.2 SSE                      7.66
DUCK 0.3 SE                          7.22
KILL DEVIL HILLS 2.5 NNW             6.47
HATTERAS/BILLY MITCHELL AP           6.26
COROLLA 11.7 NNW                     5.90
KITTY HAWK 4.0 NNW                   5.89
TRENT WOODS 1.3 SSE                  4.11
JAMESVILLE 6.1 SW                    3.84
JACKSONVILLE 2.0 E                   3.75
HOLLY RIDGE 4.8 ENE                  3.63
ELIZABETH CITY 10.5 NNW              3.56
MERRY HILL 3.8 E                     3.51

…NEW HAMPSHIRE…
GORHAM 3.1 S                         4.85
JAFFREY MUNI ARPT                    4.78
CENTER SANDWICH 4.9 E                4.57
RANDOLPH 1.4 NE                      4.51
MT WASHINGTON                        4.05
NEWBURY 1.6 NW                       4.00
NASHUA                               3.53
EFFINGHAM 0.9 NNW                    3.35
NEWBURY 4.0 SE                       3.07
HILLSBOROUGH 2.1 NNW                 3.00
BROOKLINE 2.1 SW                     3.00
MADISON 1.7 SE                       2.99
GREENVILLE 1.1 ENE                   2.96
BROOKFIELD 0.9 WSW                   2.91
PETERBOROUGH                         2.98

…NEW JERSEY…
WILDWOOD CREST 0.6 NNE              11.91
GREEN CREEK                         11.40
NORTH WILDWOOD                      10.24
SEAVILLE                            10.06
RIO GRANDE                           9.51
WEST CAPE MAY                        9.37
LOWER TWP 2.2 NE                     8.41
ERMA                                 8.20
ATLANTIC CITY                        8.15
CAPE MAY                             8.10
WOODBINE 0.8 NNW                     7.84
UPPER TWP 3.2 SE                     7.75
HAMILTON TWP 2.1 SE                  7.56
NEWPORT                              7.30
CAPE MAY 0.4 NNW                     7.28
VINELAND 2.6 WSW                     7.07
ESTELL MANOR                         7.06
CEDARVILLE                           7.00

…NEW YORK…
WHITESVILLE                          4.83
1 S HAMBURG                          4.59
PERRYSBURG                           4.41
1 SW DUNKIRK                         4.09
BATAVIA GENESSEE                     3.80
3 ENE LOCKPORT                       3.63
SHERMAN 0.4 ENE                      3.42
NIAGARA FALLS INTL ARPT              3.27
LOCKPORT 2.8 ENE                     3.31
LANCASTER 4.1 ENE                    3.26
ALCOTT CENTER                        3.25
ELMA CENTER 0.7 SE                   3.06
DANSVILLE 1.0 ENE                    3.06
LOCKPORT 0.8 NE                      3.05
WEST ALMOND 3.6 SW                   3.04

…OHIO…
KIRTLAND 0.9 SW                      5.69
CLEVELAND HOPKINS AIRPORT            5.14
MAYFIELD 0.2 NW                      5.10
NORTH RIDGEVILLE 2.8 SSW             5.06
PAINESVILLE 3.8 SSW                  5.02
LORAIN/ELYRIA                        4.98
ASHTABULA CO. ARPT                   4.83
ELYRIA 3.0 SE                        4.77
CLEVELAND-HOPKINS INTL ARPT          4.56
BROADVIEW HEIGHTS 1.5 NW             4.44
AVON 1.6 SW                          4.14
BRUNSWICK 0.5 NE                     4.08
PARMA 1.9 NNW                        3.96
RICHMOND HEIGHTS 0.4 NNE             3.88
WAKEMAN 4.6 NNE                      3.77
ELYRIA 0.4 SE                        3.70

…PENNSYLVANIA…
HANOVER 5.4 S                        7.61
SCHELLSBURG 2.6 WNW                  7.32
GLEN ROCK 2.2 ESE                    6.54
MALVERN 0.5 NNE                      6.32
LANDENBERG 1.8 ENE                   5.96
NEW SALEM 0.3 WSW                    5.92
2 ENE LANDEBERG                      5.90
LITTLESTOWN 3.7 WNW                  5.84
WEST CHESTER                         5.78
LATROBE 0.6 NW                       5.76
EXTON                                5.59
WEST CHESTER 1.8 SE                  5.54
HANOVER 3.0 WSW                      5.51
ABBOTTSTOWN 2.4 N                    5.43

…RHODE ISLAND…
PAWTUCKET/NORTH CENTRAL ST ARPT      2.71
WOONSOCKET 1.3 ESE                   1.87
MANVILLE 0.2 NE                      1.76

…VIRGINIA…
REEDVILLE                            9.90
VIRGINIA BEACH                       9.58
OCEANA NAS/SOUCEK                    9.57
CASHVILLE .01 S                      9.38
WHITE STONE 8.0 SSW                  8.96
GREENBACKVILLE 0.4 WNW               8.64
PORT HAYWOOD 1.0 SE                  8.59
ONLEY 0.6 SE                         8.47
WALLOPS ISLAND                       8.48
ONANCOCK 3.9 SW                      8.39
VIRGINIA BEACH 1.7 NE                7.99
PURCELLVILLE                         7.89
5 S MAYSVILLE                        7.75
YORKTOWN 0.8 SE                      7.73
NEWPORT NEWS 5.8 NE                  7.63

…WEST VIRGINIA…
SHENANDOAH JUNCTION                  4.46
FALLING WATERS 2.4 NW                4.36
SLANESVILLE 2.1 SE                   3.99
MORGANTOWN/HART FIELD                3.67
MCMECHEN 6.0 E                       3.56
CHARLES TOWN 2.5 NE                  3.15
BUNKER HILL 0.8 WNW                  3.06
SPRINGFIELD 2.3 ESE                  3.04
HUNTINGTON                           2.88
BOOTHSVILLE 1.4 SE                   2.83

SNOWFALL TOTALS
—————
SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 04 AM EDT

..KENTUCKY…
PAYNE GAP                            14.0
LYNCH 3S                             12.0
ELKO 1NW                              9.0
BENHAM 3S                             6.0
VIPER                                 6.0

…MARYLAND…
REDHOUSE                             29.0
FINZEL                               24.0
OAKLAND                              24.0
DEEP CREEK LAKE                      20.0
4 SE CHAMPOIN                        13.0
GRANTSVILLE                          12.0
FROSTBURG                             6.0

…NORTH CAROLINA…
COVE CREEK 10NW                      24.0
FAUST                                24.0
NEWFOUND GAP                         22.0
ELK PARK                             14.0
BULADEAN                             12.0
BAKERSVILLE 5N                       11.0
BEECH MOUNTAIN 1 SE                  10.0
FLAT SPRINGS                          9.8
ASHLAND                               9.0
LANSING                               8.0
FLAT SPRINGS 1E                       7.0

…OHIO…
BELLEFONTAINE                         4.5
BELLEFONTAINE 2N                      3.0
WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE                3.0
MANSFIELD                             2.5

…PENNSYLVANIA…
CHAMPION 4SE                         13.0
LAUREL SUMMIT                        10.0
MOUNT DAVIS                           9.0
FARMINGTON                            8.8
LAUREL SUMMIT                         9.6

…TENNESSEE…
GATLINBURG 7SE                       22.0
ROAN MOUNTAIN                        19.0
NEWFOUND GAP                         18.0
MOUNT LECONTE                        17.0

…VIRGINIA…
NORTON 2S                            24.0
TAZEWELL 2N                          15.0
WISE 6E                              14.0
LEBANON                              12.0
BURKES GARDEN                         8.4
RICHLANDS                             8.0
HONAKER                               8.0
MOUTH OF WILSON                       8.0

…WEST VIRGINIA…
5 WSW HUTTONSVILLE                   28.0
DAVIS                                28.0
FLAT TOP                             28.0
CRAIGSVILLE                          26.0
ALEXANDER                            24.0
QUINWOOD                             24.0
NETTIE                               24.0
TERRA ALTA                           24.0
KITZMILLER                           24.0
BEVERLY                              21.0
BAYARD                               21.5
HUTTONSVILLE                         18.0
BEAVER                               18.0
1 E MACARTHUR                        18.0
WEBSTER SPINGS                       17.0
FAYETTEVILLE 11E                     15.0
ELKINS                               14.0

WIND GUSTS
———–
SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR FROM EARLIER IN THE
EVENT

…CONNECTICUT…
MADISON                                85
BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT                     76
GROTON                                 76
GREENWICH                              70

…MAINE…
BATH                                   76
PORTLAND JETPORT                       63
KENNEBUNK 2NE                          62

…MARYLAND…
LAYTONSVILLE 1ESE                      76
OCEAN CITY                             74
CROCHERON 2SSE                         70
ANNAPOLIS                              69
ARBUTUS                                68
FREDRICK 1NE                           62

…MASSACHUSETTS…
CUTTYHUNK                              83
WELLFLEET                              81
BARNSTABLE                             79
WRENTHAM                               77

…MICHIGAN…
FORT GRATIOT                           74
TOLEDO HARBOR                          66
PORT SANILAC                           65
SOUTH BASS ISLAND                      63
SOUTH HAVEN 1W                         60

…NEW HAMPSHIRE…
GOSHEN                                 70
LONDONDERRY                            62
PORTSMOUTH INTL AIRP                   60

…NEW JERSEY…
TOMPKINSVILLE 2N                       90
SURF CITY                              89
TUCKERTON                              88
MONTCLAIR 1N                           88
NEWPORT                                87
SANDY HOOK NOS BUOY                    87
DENNISVILLE                            81
CLIFTON                                80
NEWARK                                 78
ATLANTIC CITY                          77
BAYONNE 1ENE                           77

…NEW YORK…
ISLIP                                  90
PLUM ISLAND 4 ENE                      85
SYOSSET                                82
POINT LOOKOUT 1E                       80
JFK                                    79

..OHIO…
BURKE LAKEFRONT ARPT                   67
CLEVELAND HOPKINS ARPT                 63
SOUTH BASS ISLAND                      62

…PENNSYLVANIA…
ALLENTOWN                              81
BENSALEM                               76
BUSHKILL CENTER                        70
PHILADELPHIA INTL ARPT                 68
MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT                   66
MOUNT AETNA                            64
WIND GAP                               62

…RHODE ISLAND…
WESTERLY                               86
WARREN                                 73

…VERMONT…
STOWE 8NW                              72
LYNDON CENTER                          61
UNDERHILL                              60

…VIRGINIA…
CHESTER GAP 3NNE                       79
WINTERGREEN 4 NW                       72
WALLOPS ISLAND                         68
MELFA/ACCOMACK ARPT                    62
HACKSHECK 1NW                          60

…WEST VIRGINIA…
RANSON 1 NNW                           65
KEYSER 2 SSW                           64
MARTINSBURG ARPT                       60

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT.  PLEASE REFER TO YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON
THIS STORM.

PETERSEN/ORRISON/TERRY

FORECAST POSITIONS
——————
INITIAL 31/0900Z  NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATION

$$

Spanish:

WTNT33 KWNH 310902
TCPSP3

LOS RESTOS DEL NÚMERO 36 DE ASESORAMIENTO SANDY
NWS Centro de Predicción Hidrometeorológica College Park MD AL182012
0500 AM EDT MIERCOLES 31 de octubre 2012

REMANENTES DE SANDY … continuará debilitándose en Pensilvania …

RESUMEN DE LAS 0500 AM EDT … 0900 UTC … INFORMACIÓN
———————————————–
UBICACIÓN … NO circulación superficial perceptible

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——————–
RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

Avisos de temporal y avisos de artesanía son EN EFECTO PARA
PARTES DE LOS GRANDES LAGOS. ADVERTENCIAS DE EMBARCACIONES PEQUENAS EN EFECTO
A LO LARGO DE LA MAYOR PARTE DEL MID-ATLANTIC Y COSTAS DEL NORESTE.

RELOJES DE INUNDACIONES COSTERAS Y DE INUNDACIONES … AVISOS … Y advertencia se encuentre en
EFECTO SOBRE PARTES DEL MID-ATLANTIC Y DEL NORESTE.

AVISOS DE TORMENTA DE INVIERNO Y ADVERTENCIAS DE INVIERNO DEL TIEMPO RESTANTE EN
EFECTO DE LAS MONTAÑAS DEL SUROESTE DE PENNSYLVANIA OCCIDENTAL …
MARYLAND … WEST VIRGINIA … ESTE TENNESSEE ORIENTAL …
KENTUCKY … Y EXTREMA WESTERN CAROLINA DEL NORTE.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … INCLUYENDO LOS RELOJES Y
AVISOS … FAVOR DE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU LOCAL NACIONAL
TIEMPO DE LA OFICINA DE SERVICIO AL WWW.WEATHER.GOV.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
——————————
A las 0500 AM EDT … 0900 UTC … no había SUPERFICIE discernible
CIRCULACIÓN DE LOS REMANENTES DE SANDY. SANDY ha debilitado en una
SUPERFICIE VAGUADA DE BAJA PRESION SOBRE oeste de Pensilvania.

PELIGROS
——-
VIENTO … VIENTOS FUERTES continuará hasta el miércoles por la MAÑANA
PARTES DEL NORESTE Y los Grandes Lagos.

MAREJADA … Los niveles elevados de agua seguirá DISMINUYENDO A LO LARGO
LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DE MASSACHUSETTS DURANTE EL DÍA. EN
PARTES DE CHESAPEAKE BAY … Normalmente las zonas secas CERCA DE LA COSTA
Todavía podría ser inundada por las crecidas en la época de LA
Siguiente pleamar. El agua podría llegar a las profundidades SIGUIENTES ANTERIORES
BAJA:

Alto y Medio CHESAPEAKE BAY … 1 A 2 PIES.

AGUAS DE AGUA DULCE DE INUNDACIÓN ORIGINARIOS DE LA CORTE DE LA POTOMAC
LLUVIAS DE SANDY, seguirá afectando LA MAREA
POTOMAC … CAUSANDO INUNDACIONES SIGNIFICATIVAS A VIERNES
TARDE.

DEBIDO A LOS VIENTOS DEL NORTE fuertes y persistentes inundaciones en la costa …
A LO LARGO DE PARTES DE LOS GRANDES LAGOS ES POSIBLE.

LLUVIA … ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE HASTA UNA PULGADA SON
PREVISTAS EN LOS LAGOS DEL ESTE GRAN Y TAMBIÉN DEL NORTE Nueva Inglaterra.

Nevada … ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE NIEVE DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SON
ESPERA EN LAS MONTAÑAS DE WEST VIRGINIA OCCIDENTAL EN FAR
Maryland y Pennsylvania SUROESTE.

SURF … CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE SURF continuará desde FLORIDA
A TRAVÉS DE NUEVA INGLATERRA PARA LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.

TOTALES DE LLUVIA
—————
SELECCIONADOS DE TORMENTA TOTAL DE LLUVIA EN PULGADAS al 04 AM EDT

WASHINGTON DC … …
WASHINGTON 5,1 NW 5,83
WASHINGTON / NACIONAL 4,84

DELAWARE … …
GEORGETOWN 10,20
DOVER 6,4 W 9,62
MILFORD 9,55
Indian River ACRES 9,49
REHOBOTH BEACH 9,37
CLAYTON 6,6 W 8,62
Dover AFB 8,47
DELANEY ESQUINA 8,33
MILTON 8,30
SMYRNA 2,7 SSE 8,30
SEAFORD 2,3 SSE 8,27
FELTON 3,6 NE 8,00
DOVER 7,98
VIOLA 7,84
GEORGETOWN 5,8 W 7,76

MASSACHUSETTS … …
FITCHBURG 3,85
NORTH Ashburnham 3,70
Pepperell 3,30
Ashburnham 3,20
AYER 3,11
EAST MILTON 3,03
LEOMINSTER 1,5 S 2,92
NATICK 1,7 NNE 2,85
NORTON 1,8 NNE 2,80
ACTON 1,3 SW 2,76
Bedford / Hanscom Field 2,40
Millis 0,6 SSE 2,65
Northborough 0,6 SSE 2,60
NORWOOD 1,3 NW 2,59

MARYLAND … …
EASTON 0,7 NNW 12,55
1 EASTON NNW 12,49
GREENSBORO 1,4 ENE 10,53
QUEENSTOWN 2,6 S 9,89
TRAPPE 3,5 NE 9,78
Bishopville 3,1 9,48 E
DENTON 5,8 W 9,18
PRINCESS ANNE 4,4 W 8,81
PASADENA 2,6 ESE 8,60
Patuxent River NAS 8,32
LA PLATA SE 5,8 8,23
SALISBURY Rgnl ARPT 7,55
OCEAN CITY MUNI ARPT 7,22
BALIMORE CENTRO DE CIENCIAS 7,18
ANNAPOLIS – Academia Naval de EE.UU. 7,09
BALTIMORE / WASHINGTON INTL ARPT 6,67

CAROLINA DEL NORTE … …
SALVO 0,9 NNE 8,09
AVON 0,7 NE 8,00
COROLLA 3,2 SSE 7,66
PATO SE 0,3 7,22
Kill Devil Hills 2,5 NNW 6,47
HATTERAS / BILLY MITCHELL AP 6,26
COROLLA 11,7 NNW 5,90
KITTY HAWK 4,0 NNW 5,89
Trent Woods 1,3 SSE 4,11
Jamesville 6,1 SW 3,84
JACKSONVILLE 2,0 3,75 E
HOLLY RIDGE 4,8 ENE 3,63
ELIZABETH CITY 10,5 NNW 3,56
MERRY HILL 3,8 3,51 E

… New Hampshire …
GORHAM 3,1 S 4,85
Jaffrey MUNI ARPT 4,78
CENTRO DE SANDWICH 4,9 4,57 E
RANDOLPH 1,4 NE 4,51
WASHINGTON 4,05 MT
NEWBURY 1,6 NW 4,00
NASHUA 3,53
EFFINGHAM 0,9 NNW 3,35
NEWBURY 4.0 SE 3,07
HILLSBOROUGH 2,1 NNW 3,00
BROOKLINE 2,1 SW 3,00
MADISON SE 1,7 2,99
GREENVILLE 1,1 ENE 2,96
BROOKFIELD 0,9 W 2,91
PETERBOROUGH 2,98

NEW JERSEY … …
Wildwood Crest 0,6 NNE 11,91
Green Creek 11,40
North Wildwood 10,24
Seaville 10,06
RIO GRANDE 9,51
West Cape May 9.37
BAJAR TWP 2,2 NE 8,41
ERMA 8,20
ATLANTIC CITY 8,15
CAPE MAY 8,10
WOODBINE 0,8 NNW 7,84
SUPERIOR TWP 3.2 SE 7,75
HAMILTON SE TWP 2,1 7,56
NEWPORT 7,30
CAPE MAY 0,4 NNW 7,28
VINELAND 2,6 W 7,07
Estell Manor 7,06
Cedarville 7,00

NUEVA YORK … …
Whitesville 4,83
1 S 4,59 HAMBURG
PERRYSBURG 4,41
1 SW DUNKIRK 4,09
BATAVIA Genessee 3,80
3 ENE 3,63 LOCKPORT
SHERMAN 0,4 ENE 3,42
NIAGARA FALLS INTL ARPT 3,27
LOCKPORT 2,8 ENE 3,31
LANCASTER 4,1 ENE 3,26
ALCOTT CENTRO 3,25
ELMA Center 0.7 SE 3,06
Dansville 1,0 ENE 3,06
LOCKPORT 0,8 NE 3,05
Hueso 3,6 SW 3,04

OHIO … …
KIRTLAND 0,9 SW 5,69
Aeropuerto de Cleveland Hopkins 5,14
MAYFIELD 0,2 NW 5,10
North Olmsted 2,8 SSW 5,06
Painesville 3,8 SSW 5,02
LORAIN / ELYRIA 4,98
Ashtabula CO ARPT 4,83
ELYRIA 3.0 SE 4,77
Cleveland-Hopkins INTL ARPT 4,56
Broadview Heights 1,5 NW 4,44
AVON 1,6 SW 4,14
BRUNSWICK 0,5 NE 4,08
PARMA 1,9 NNW 3,96
Richmond Heights 0,4 NNE 3,88
WAKEMAN 4,6 NNE 3,77
ELYRIA 0.4 SE 3,70

PENNSYLVANIA … …
HANOVER 5,4 S 7,61
Schellsburg 2,6 W 7,32
GLEN ROCK 2,2 ESE 6,54
MALVERN 0,5 NNE 6,32
Landenberg 1,8 ENE 5,96
New Salem 0,3 W 5,92
2 ENE 5,90 LANDEBERG
Littlestown 3,7 W 5,84
WEST CHESTER 5,78
LATROBE 0,6 NW 5,76
EXTON 5,59
WEST CHESTER SE 1,8 5,54
HANOVER 3,0 W 5,51
Abbottstown 2,4 N 5,43

RHODE ISLAND … …
PAWTUCKET / NORTE CENTRAL ST ARPT 2,71
WOONSOCKET 1,3 ESE 1,87
MANVILLE 0,2 NE 1,76

VIRGINIA … …
Reedville 9,90
VIRGINIA BEACH 9,58
OCEANA NAS / Soucek 9,57
Cashville 0,01 S 9,38
PIEDRA BLANCA 8,0 SSW 8,96
Greenbackville 0,4 W 8,64
Port Haywood 1.0 SE 8,59
Onley 0.6 SE 8,47
Wallops Island 8,48
Onancock 3.9 SW 8,39
VIRGINIA BEACH 1,7 NE 7,99
Purcellville 7,89
5 S 7,75 MAYSVILLE
Yorktown 0.8 SE 7,73
NEWPORT NEWS 5,8 NE 7,63

WEST VIRGINIA … …
Shenandoah Junction 4,46
Falling Waters 2,4 NW 4,36
Slanesville 2.1 SE 3,99
MORGANTOWN / HART CAMPO 3,67
McMechen 6,0 3,56 E
CHARLES TOWN 2,5 NE 3,15
BUNKER HILL 0,8 W 3,06
SPRINGFIELD 2,3 ESE 3,04
HUNTINGTON 2,88
BOOTHSVILLE 1.4 SE 2,83

TOTAL DE NIEVE
—————
TORMENTA DE NIEVE SELECCIONADO TOTAL EN PULGADAS al 04 AM EDT

KENTUCKY .. …
PAYNE GAP 14,0
LYNCH 3S 12,0
ELKO 1NW 9,0
3S Benham 6.0
VIPER 6.0

MARYLAND … …
Redhouse 29,0
Finzel 24,0
OAKLAND 24,0
Deep Creek Lake 20,0
4 SE CHAMPOIN 13,0
Grantsville 12,0
Frostburg 6,0

CAROLINA DEL NORTE … …
COVE CREEK 10NW 24,0
FAUST 24,0
Newfound Gap 22,0
Elk Park 14,0
BULADEAN 12,0
Bakersville 5N 11,0
BEECH MOUNTAIN 1 SE 10,0
PISO DE MUELLES 9,8
ASHLAND 9,0
LANSING 8.0
Muelles planos 1E 7.0

OHIO … …
BELLEFONTAINE 4,5
BELLEFONTAINE 2N 3,0
Washington Court House 3,0
MANSFIELD 2,5

PENNSYLVANIA … …
CHAMPION 4SE 13,0
LAUREL CUMBRE 10,0
MONTAJE DE DAVIS 9,0
FARMINGTON 8,8
LAUREL CUMBRE 9,6

TENNESSEE … …
GATLINBURG 7SE 22,0
Roan Mountain 19,0
Newfound Gap 18,0
MONTAJE LECONTE 17,0

VIRGINIA … …
NORTON 2S 24,0
TAZEWELL 2N 15,0
WISE 14.0 6E
LÍBANO 12,0
Burkes Garden 8,4
RICHLANDS 8,0
Honaker 8,0
Mouth of Wilson 8.0

WEST VIRGINIA … …
5 WSW 28,0 Huttonsville
DAVIS 28,0
FLAT TOP 28,0
Craigsville 26,0
ALEXANDER 24,0
Quinwood 24,0
Nettie 24,0
TERRA ALTA 24,0
Kitzmiller 24,0
BEVERLY 21,0
BAYARD 21,5
Huttonsville 18,0
CASTOR 18,0
1 S 18,0 MACARTHUR
WEBSTER Spings 17,0
FAYETTEVILLE 11E 15,0
ELKINS 14,0

RAFAGAS DE VIENTO
———–
SELECCIONADOS ráfagas máximas del viento en millas por hora desde antes en el
EVENTO

CONNECTICUT … …
MADISON 85
BRIDGEPORT AEROPUERTO 76
GROTON 76
GREENWICH 70

MAINE … …
BATH 76
PORTLAND JETPORT 63
Kennebunk 2NE 62

MARYLAND … …
Laytonsville 1ESE 76
OCEAN CITY 74
Crocheron 2SSE 70
ANNAPOLIS 69
ARBUTUS 68
FREDRICK 1NE 62

MASSACHUSETTS … …
CUTTYHUNK 83
WELLFLEET 81
BARNSTABLE 79
Wrentham 77

MICHIGAN … …
Fort Gratiot 74
PUERTO TOLEDO 66
Port Sanilac 65
South Bass Island 63
SOUTH HAVEN 1W 60

… New Hampshire …
GOSHEN 70
LONDONDERRY 62
PORTSMOUTH INTL AIRP 60

NEW JERSEY … …
Tompkinsville 2N 90
SURF CITY 89
Tuckerton 88
MONTCLAIR 1N 88
NEWPORT 87
NOS Sandy Hook BOYA 87
Dennisville 81
CLIFTON 80
NEWARK 78
ATLANTIC CITY 77
BAYONNE 1ENE 77

NUEVA YORK … …
ISLIP 90
Plum Island 4 ENE 85
Syosset 82
Point Lookout 1E 80
JFK 79

OHIO .. …
Burke Lakefront ARPT 67
CLEVELAND HOPKINS ARPT 63
South Bass Island 62

PENNSYLVANIA … …
ALLENTOWN 81
BENSALEM 76
Bushkill CENTRO 70
PHILADELPHIA INTL ARPT 68
MONTAJE POCONO AEROPUERTO 66
Mount Aetna 64
WIND GAP 62

RHODE ISLAND … …
WESTERLY 86
WARREN 73

VERMONT … …
STOWE 8NW 72
Lyndon Center 61
UNDERHILL 60

VIRGINIA … …
CHESTER GAP 3NNE 79
WINTERGREEN 4 NW 72
Wallops Island 68
MELFA / Accomack ARPT 62
HACKSHECK 1NW 60

WEST VIRGINIA … …
RANSON 1 NNW 65
KEYSER 2 SSW 64
MARTINSBURG ARPT 60

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
————-
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA A LAS 1100 AM EDT. CONSULTE A SU
LOCAL OFICINA NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA DE SERVICIO PARA MÁS INFORMACIÓN SOBRE
ESTA TORMENTA.

PETERSEN / Orrison / TERRY

POSICIONES DE PREDICCIÓN
——————
INITIAL 31/0900Z NO circulación superficial perceptible

$ $

French:

WTNT33 KWNH 310902
TCPAT3

VESTIGES DU NOMBRE CONSULTATIF DE SABLE 36
NWS hydrométéorologiques Prediction Center College Park MD AL182012
0500 MER HAE 31 octobre 2012

RESTES DE SANDY … CONTINUER DE FAIBLIR dessus de la Pennsylvanie …

RÉSUMÉ DE 0500 HAE … 0900 UTC … INFORMATIONS
———————————————–
EMPLACEMENT … NON CIRCULATION DE SURFACE DISCERNABLE

MONTRES ET MISES EN GARDE
——————–
RÉSUMÉ DES MONTRES ET ALERTES EN VIGUEUR …

AVERTISSEMENTS DE COUP DE VENT ET Avis POUR PETITS BATEAUX SONT EN VIGUEUR POUR
UNE PARTIE DES GRANDS LACS. AVIS DE PETITS BATEAUX SONT EN VIGUEUR
Sur une grande partie de la dorsale médio-Atlantique et NORD-EST.

MONTRES ET COTIERE Flood Flood … MISES EN GARDE ET … Avis aux SONT EN
EFFET SUR LES SECTEURS DE LA MI-ATLANTIQUE NORD ET LES ÉTATS.

AVERTISSEMENTS DE TEMPÊTE D’HIVER ET D’HIVER avis météorologiques RESTENT EN
EFFET DE LA MONTAGNE DU SUD-OUEST DE L’OUEST PENNSYLVANIE …
MARYLAND … VIRGINIE OCCIDENTALE … L’EST DE L’EST DU TENNESSEE …
KENTUCKY ET … EXTREME OUEST CAROLINE DU NORD.

Pour des informations spécifiques à votre région, montres et …
AVERTISSEMENTS … S’IL VOUS PLAÎT PRODUITS DU MONITEUR émis par votre LOCAL NATIONAL
BUREAU service de météo sur WWW.WEATHER.GOV.

DISCUSSION ET PERSPECTIVES DE 48 HEURES
——————————
À 0500 HAE … 0900 UTC … IL N’Y A PAS DE SURFACE DISCERNABLE
CIRCULATION POUR LES RESTES DE SANDY. SANDY A FAIBLI DANS UNE
CREUX DE SURFACE DE DEPRESSION SUR ouest de la Pennsylvanie.

DANGERS
——-
VENT … DES VENTS FORTS se poursuivra jusqu’à mercredi matin,
SECTEURS DE L’EST-NORD ET LES GRANDS LACS.

ONDE DE TEMPÊTE … niveaux d’eau élevés CONTINUERA à se calmer LONG
LA CÔTE DE LA CAROLINE DU NORD AU COURS DE LA JOURNÉE DU MASSACHUSETTS. EN
PARTIES DE BAIE DE CHESAPEAKE … normalement les zones sèches près de la côte
Pourrait encore être inondées par la montée des eaux AUTOUR DU TEMPS DE LA
SUIVANT LA MARÉE HAUTE. L’eau pourrait atteindre les profondeurs suivantes au-dessus
DE-CHAUSSÉE:

Moyennes et supérieures CHESAPEAKE BAY … 1 à 2 pieds.

Les eaux de crue D’EAU DOUCE EN PROVENANCE DU HAUT DU POTOMAC
PLUIES DE SANDY continueront d’influer LA MARÉE
POTOMAC … entraînant des inondations IMPORTANTE AU VENDREDI
APRES-MIDI.

EN RAISON DE forte et persistante VENTS DU NORD … Les inondations côtières
SUR UNE PARTIE DES GRANDS LACS EST POSSIBLE.

PLUIE … AUTRES ACCUMULATIONS DE PLUIE jusqu’à un pouce SONT
ATTENDUS AU COURS DES LACS DE L’EST GRANDS ET AUSSI Northern New England.

NEIGE … SUPPLÉMENTAIRES ACCUMULATION DE NEIGE DE 2 A 4 POUCES SONT
ATTENDUS AU COURS DES MONTAGNES DU FAR WEST VIRGINIA EN OUEST
MARYLAND ET DU SUD-OUEST PENNSYLVANIE.

SURF SURF … CONDITIONS DANGEREUSES CONTINUERA DE LA FLORIDE
PAR LA NOUVELLE-ANGLETERRE POUR DES DEUX PROCHAINS JOURS.

TOTAUX DE PLUIE
—————
PLUIE DE TEMPÊTE CHOISIS totale en pouces à 04 HAE

WASHINGTON DC … …
WASHINGTON NO 5,1 5,83
WASHINGTON / NATIONAL 4,84

DELAWARE … …
GEORGETOWN 10,20
DOVER 6,4 ONO 9,62
MILFORD 9,55
INDIAN RIVER ACRES 9,49
Rehoboth Beach 9,37
CLAYTON 6,6 W 8,62
Dover AFB 8,47
COIN DELANEY 8,33
MILTON 8,30
SMYRNA 2,7 SSE 8,30
SEAFORD 2,3 SSE 8,27
FELTON 3,6 NE 8,00
DOVER 7,98
VIOLA 7,84
GEORGETOWN 5,8 W 7,76

MASSACHUSETTS … …
FITCHBURG 3,85
NORD ASHBURNHAM 3,70
Pepperell 3,30
ASHBURNHAM 3,20
AYER 3,11
EAST MILTON 3,03
LEOMINSTER 1,5 S 2,92
NATICK 1,7 NNE 2,85
NORTON 1,8 NNE 2,80
ACTON 1,3 SO 2,76
BEDFORD / Hanscom Field 2,40
MILLIS 0,6 SSE 2,65
Northborough 0,6 SSE 2,60
NORWOOD 1,3 NW 2,59

MARYLAND … …
EASTON 0,7 NNO 12,55
1 NNO EASTON 12,49
GREENSBORO 1,4 ENE 10,53
QUEENSTOWN 2,6 S 9,89
TRAPPE 3,5 NE 9,78
Bishopville 3,1 E 9,48
DENTON 5,8 SO 9,18
PRINCESSE ANNE SO 4,4 8,81
PASADENA 2,6 ESE 8,60
Patuxent River NAS 8,32
LA PLATA 5.8 SE 8,23
SALISBURY RGNL ARPT 7,55
OCEAN CITY MUNI ARPT 7,22
BALIMORE SCIENCE CENTER 7,18
ANNAPOLIS – US Naval Academy 7,09
Baltimore / Washington INTL ARPT 6,67

CAROLINE DU NORD … …
SALVO 0,9 NNE 8,09
AVON NE 0,7 8,00
COROLLA 3.2 SSE 7,66
CANARD SE 0,3 7,22
Kill Devil Hills 2,5 NNO 6,47
HATTERAS / BILLY MITCHELL AP 6,26
COROLLE 11,7 NNO 5,90
Kitty Hawk 4.0 NNO 5,89
Trent Woods 1.3 SSE 4,11
Jamesville 6,1 SO 3,84
JACKSONVILLE 2,0 E 3,75
Holly Ridge 4,8 ENE 3,63
ELIZABETH CITY 10,5 NNO 3,56
Merry Hill 3,8 E 3,51

NEW HAMPSHIRE … …
GORHAM 3,1 S 4,85
JAFFREY MUNI ARPT 4,78
SANDWICH CENTER 4,9 E 4,57
RANDOLPH 1,4 NE 4,51
MT WASHINGTON 4,05
NEWBURY 1,6 NW 4,00
NASHUA 3,53
EFFINGHAM 0,9 NNO 3,35
NEWBURY 4.0 SE 3,07
HILLSBOROUGH 2,1 NNO 3,00
BROOKLINE 2,1 SO 3,00
MADISON 1.7 SE 2,99
GREENVILLE 1,1 ENE 2,96
BROOKFIELD 0,9 SO 2,91
PETERBOROUGH 2,98

NEW JERSEY … …
Wildwood Crest 0,6 NNE 11,91
GREEN CREEK 11,40
North Wildwood 10,24
Seaville 10,06
RIO GRANDE 9,51
West Cape May 9,37
LOWER TWP 2.2 NE 8,41
ERMA 8,20
ATLANTIC CITY 8,15
CAPE MAY 8,10
WOODBINE 0,8 NNO 7,84
UPPER TWP 3.2 SE 7,75
HAMILTON TWP 2.1 SE 7,56
NEWPORT 7,30
CAPE MAY 0.4 NNO 7,28
VINELAND 2,6 SO 7,07
Estell Manor 7,06
Cedarville 7,00

NEW YORK … …
Whitesville 4,83
1 S HAMBURG 4,59
PERRYSBURG 4,41
1 SW DUNKERQUE 4,09
BATAVIA Genessee 3,80
3 janv. LOCKPORT 3,63
SHERMAN 0,4 ENE 3,42
NIAGARA FALLS INTL ARPT 3,27
LOCKPORT 2,8 ENE 3,31
LANCASTER 4,1 ENE 3,26
ALCOTT CENTRE 3,25
ELMA Center 0.7 SE 3,06
Dansville 1,0 ENE 3,06
LOCKPORT 0,8 NE 3,05
WEST AMANDE 3,6 SO 3,04

OHIO … …
KIRTLAND 0,9 SO 5,69
Aéroport de Cleveland Hopkins 5,14
MAYFIELD NO 0,2 5,10
North Ridgeville 2.8 SSW 5,06
Painesville 3,8 SSW 5,02
LORAIN / ELYRIA 4,98
Ashtabula CO ARPT 4,83
ELYRIA 3.0 SE 4,77
Cleveland-Hopkins INTL ARPT 4,56
Broadview Heights 1,5 NW 4,44
AVON 1,6 SO 4,14
NE-Brunswick 0,5 4,08
PARME 1,9 NNO 3,96
Richmond Heights 0,4 NNE 3,88
WAKEMAN 4,6 NNE 3,77
ELYRIA 0.4 SE 3,70

PENNSYLVANIE … …
HANOVRE 5,4 S 7,61
Schellsburg 2,6 ONO 7,32
GLEN ROCK 2,2 ESE 6,54
MALVERN 0,5 NNE 6,32
Landenberg 1,8 ENE 5,96
New Salem 0,3 SO 5,92
2 janv. LANDEBERG 5,90
Littlestown 3,7 ONO 5,84
WEST CHESTER 5,78
LATROBE 0,6 NW 5,76
EXTON 5,59
WEST CHESTER 1.8 SE 5,54
Hanover 3.0 WSW 5,51
Abbottstown 2,4 N 5,43

RHODE ISLAND … …
PAWTUCKET / CENTRE-NORD ST ARPT 2,71
WOONSOCKET 1,3 ESE 1,87
MANVILLE 0,2 NE 1,76

VIRGINIA … …
Reedville 9,90
VIRGINIA BEACH 9,58
OCEANA NAS / SOUCEK 9,57
Cashville 0,01 S 9,38
PIERRE BLANCHE 8,0 SSW 8,96
Greenbackville 0,4 ONO 8,64
Port Haywood 1.0 SE 8,59
ONLEY 0.6 SE 8,47
ÎLE WALLOPS 8,48
Onancock 3,9 SO 8,39
VIRGINIA BEACH 1,7 NE 7,99
Purcellville 7,89
5 S Maysville 7,75
YORKTOWN 0.8 SE 7,73
NEWPORT NOUVELLES NE 5,8 7,63

VIRGINIE OCCIDENTALE … …
Shenandoah Junction 4,46
EAUX une baisse de 2,4 NO 4,36
SLANESVILLE 2.1 SE 3,99
MORGANTOWN / HART DOMAINE 3,67
McMechen 6,0 E 3,56
CHARLES VILLE NE 2,5 3,15
BUNKER HILL 0,8 ONO 3,06
SPRINGFIELD 2,3 ESE 3,04
HUNTINGTON 2,88
BOOTHSVILLE 1.4 SE 2,83

TOTAUX DE NEIGE
—————
NEIGE DE TEMPÊTE EN POUCES CHOISI TOTAL à 04 HAE

KENTUCKY .. …
PAYNE GAP 14,0
3S 12,0 LYNCH
ELKO 1NW 9,0
3S Benham 6,0
VIPER 6,0

MARYLAND … …
REDHOUSE 29,0
Finzel 24,0
OAKLAND 24,0
Deep Creek Lake 20,0
4 SE CHAMPOIN 13,0
Grantsville 12,0
Frostburg 6.0

CAROLINE DU NORD … …
Crique 10NW 24,0
FAUST 24,0
Newfound Gap 22,0
ELK PARK 14,0
BULADEAN 12,0
Bakersville 5N 11,0
Beech Mountain 1 SE 10,0
Ressorts plats 9,8
ASHLAND 9,0
LANSING 8,0
Ressorts plats 1E 7.0

OHIO … …
BELLEFONTAINE 4,5
BELLEFONTAINE 2N 3,0
Washington Court House 3.0
Mansfield 2,5

PENNSYLVANIE … …
CHAMPION 4SE 13,0
LAUREL SOMMET 10,0
Mount Davis 9,0
FARMINGTON 8,8
LAUREL SOMMET 9.6

TENNESSEE … …
GATLINBURG 7SE 22,0
Roan Mountain 19,0
Newfound Gap 18,0
MOUNT LECONTE 17,0

VIRGINIA … …
2S 24,0 NORTON
TAZEWELL 2N 15,0
WISE 6E 14.0
LIBAN 12,0
Burkes Garden 8.4
RICHLANDS 8,0
Honaker 8,0
Mouth of Wilson 8.0

VIRGINIE OCCIDENTALE … …
5 OSO Huttonsville 28,0
DAVIS 28,0
FLAT TOP 28.0
Craigsville 26,0
ALEXANDER 24,0
Quinwood 24,0
NETTIE 24,0
TERRA ALTA 24,0
Kitzmiller 24,0
BEVERLY 21,0
BAYARD 21,5
Huttonsville 18,0
BEAVER 18,0
1 E MACARTHUR 18,0
WEBSTER SPINGS 17,0
FAYETTEVILLE 11E 15,0
ELKINS 14,0

RAFALES
———–
SÉLECTION DES RAFALES DE POINTE en miles par heure plus tôt dans la
ÉVÉNEMENT

CONNECTICUT … …
MADISON 85
BRIDGEPORT AÉROPORT 76
GROTON 76
GREENWICH 70

MAINE … …
BATH 76
Portland Jetport 63
Kennebunk 2NE 62

MARYLAND … …
Laytonsville 1ESE 76
OCEAN CITY 74
Crocheron 2SSE 70
ANNAPOLIS 69
ARBUTUS 68
FREDRICK 1NE 62

MASSACHUSETTS … …
CUTTYHUNK 83
Wellfleet 81
BARNSTABLE 79
WRENTHAM 77

MICHIGAN … …
Fort Gratiot 74
TOLEDO HARBOR 66
Port Sanilac 65
South Bass Island 63
South Haven 60 1W

NEW HAMPSHIRE … …
GOSHEN 70
LONDONDERRY 62
PORTSMOUTH INTL AIRP 60

NEW JERSEY … …
Tompkinsville 2N 90
Surf City 89
Tuckerton 88
MONTCLAIR 1N 88
NEWPORT 87
NOS Sandy Hook BUOY 87
Dennisville 81
CLIFTON 80
NEWARK 78
ATLANTIC CITY 77
BAYONNE 1ENE 77

NEW YORK … …
Islip 90
PLUM ISLAND 4 ENE 85
Syosset 82
Point Lookout 1E 80
JFK 79

OHIO .. …
Burke Lakefront ARPT 67
CLEVELAND HOPKINS ARPT 63
South Bass Island 62

PENNSYLVANIE … …
ALLENTOWN 81
BENSALEM 76
Bushkill centre 70
PHILADELPHIA INTL ARPT 68
Mount Pocono AÉROPORT 66
Mont Etna 64
GAP 62 Vent

RHODE ISLAND … …
OUEST 86
WARREN 73

VERMONT … …
STOWE 8NW 72
Lyndon Centre 61
UNDERHILL 60

VIRGINIA … …
CHESTER GAP 3NNE 79
WINTERGREEN 4 NO 72
WALLOPS Édouard 68
MELFA / Accomack ARPT 62
HACKSHECK 1NW 60

VIRGINIE OCCIDENTALE … …
RANSON une NNO 65
KEYSER 2 SSO 64
MARTINSBURG ARPT 60

PROCHAINE CONSULTATIF
————-
AVIS SUIVANT SERA EMIS AT 1100 HAE. S’IL VOUS PLAÎT CONSULTER VOTRE
BUREAU LOCAL SERVICE NATIONAL DE TEMPS POUR PLUS D’INFORMATIONS SUR
LA TEMPÊTE.

PETERSEN / Orrison / TERRY

Positions prévues
——————
INITIAL NON 31/0900Z CIRCULATION DE SURFACE DISCERNABLE

$ $

801
acus01 kwns 301255
swody1
Storm Prediction Center ac 301253

Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 am CDT Tuesday Oct 30 2012

Valid 301300z – 311200z

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast…


former tropical cyclone Sandy and middle-latitude upper trough that
formed over the southern Appalachians on Sunday have evolved into an
expansive upper low centered over the Maryland-PA border this morning. The
system should weaken as it edges a bit farther west or west-northwest today…and
should turn more northward tonight as it continues to slowly fill. Polar air
has completely engulfed residual surface low now over S central
PA…leaving axis of relatively warm/moist air originating in the
central Atlantic displaced well to the north and east across parts of New
England. Modest low-level buoyancy in this corridor may yield a
marginal thunderstorm/conditional severe risk over central and eastern New England.

Elsewhere…dry weather will prevail over the central U.S. And much of
the west as a ridge amplifies over the Great Basin in response to strong
system approaching the Pacific northwest.

..cntrl/eastern New England through early Wednesday…
Plume of enhanced low-level moisture originating near Bermuda will
stream northward into eastern New England today…on far eastern fringe of Maryland-PA
upper low. Coupled with relatively warm air mass already present
across the region /reflecting anomalous blocking high of recent days
over the Canadian Maritimes/ and modest low-level confluence…a low
probabilistic risk will exist for the development of scattered thunderstorms.

Given strong…largely unidirectional deep field /with 850-700 mb
flow around 40-50 kts/…a conditional threat will exist for isolated
low-topped storms capable of severe gusts…especially later today
through this evening. Location of surface low in PA will keep near-surface winds
over most of New England backed to an Ely component. While this will
diminish low-level buoyancy /especially near the coast/…it may
sufficiently enhance low-level hodograph curvature to pose a risk for
a brief tornado in any stronger/more sustained updrafts that do
form. Upslope component to flow could enhance the potential for
storms in New Hampshire and ME. Finally…some increase in large scale forcing
for ascent/DCVA may occur over southern and eastern New England late
tonight/early Wednesday as the PA upper low begins to edge northward and the system
assumes more of a negative tilt. This may maintain or perhaps
somewhat increase prospects for thunderstorm development over parts of New
England later in the forecast period.

.Corfidi/Mosier.. 10/30/2012

Mesoscale Discussion

786
acus11 kwns 300952
sels mesoscale discussion
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 300951
mez000-maz000-nhz000-riz000-vtz000-ctz000-nyz000-301145-

Mesoscale discussion 2093
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 am CDT Tuesday Oct 30 2012

Areas affected…ME/NH/VT/MA/CT/RI

Concerning…severe potential…watch possible

Valid 300951z – 301145z

Probability of watch issuance…40 percent

Summary…low-end/isolated severe potential to gradually evolve
across New England over the next several hours. Ww may become
necessary.

Discussion…latest radar imagery shows showers and
isolated/occasional thunderstorms streaming nwwd off the Atlantic
and onshore across New England…on the northestern side of the remnants of
Hurricane Sandy. While little lightning has been observed…models
have consistently forecast an increase in deep convection this
am…as middle-level temperatures cool/lapse rates steepen with time.
While a shallow/somewhat stable boundary layer persists…a nwwd
stream of higher low-level Theta-E air will persist which — given
the aforementioned middle-level cooling — will result in very modest
destabilization of the airmass with time.

With very strong /50-plus knots/ northwesterly flow just off the
surface…downward transport of momentum will become increasingly
possible as convection becomes stronger/more widespread within the
weakly destabilizing environment. Additionally…the rapid increase
— and weak veering — of the wind field with height in the lowest
1-2 km would likewise support brief tornado potential within
stronger cells. Indeed…a few weakly rotating cells have been
observed moving onshore this morning…and expect this trend to
continue/increase over the next few hours.

Overall…severe potential should remain very isolated and low-end
through this morning. Still…given the strength of the background
kinematic environment…an increase in coverage and intensity of
convection — even locally — would result in a corresponding
increase in severe threat.

.Goss/corfidi.. 10/30/2012

..please see http://www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product…

Attention…WFO…car…gyx…box…btv…okx…aly…

Latitude…Lon 41117184 41887299 42777310 43647306 44937128 45776916
45746771 44886666 44626690 43856843 43576942 43127007
42687010 42066972 41486974 40976983 40897131 41117184

Active Severe Weather Alerts in the US (weatherusa.net)

UK Severe Weather RSS Feeds

Current Hurricane Local StatementProducts:

These statements are available at weather.gov

Superstorm Sandy delivers a devastating blow to the U.S.

Published: 3:23 PM GMT on October 30, 2012

“In a stunning spectacle of atmospheric violence, Superstorm Sandy roared ashore in New Jersey last night with sustained winds of 90 mph and a devastating storm surge that crippled coastal New Jersey and New York. Sandy’s record size allowed the historic storm to bring extreme weather to over 100 million Americans, from Chicago to Maine and from Michigan to Florida. Sandy’s barometric pressure at landfall was 946 mb, tying the Great Long Island Express Hurricane of 1938 as the most powerful storm ever to hit the Northeast U.S. north of Cape Hatteras, NC. New York City experienced its worst hurricane since its founding in 1624, as Sandy’s 9-foot storm surge rode in on top of a high tide to bring water levels to 13.88′ at The Battery, smashing the record 11.2′ water level recorded during the great hurricane of 1821. Damage from Superstorm Sandy will likely be in the tens of billions, making the storm one of the five most expensive disasters in U.S. history.”


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Superstorm Sandy taken at 10 am EDT Tuesday, October 30, 2012. Image credit: NASA GSFC.

“….Sandy’s snows
Sandy’s snows have clobbered the town of Davis, WV with an estimated 26 – 28″ of snow. Most of the town is without power, and winds are blowing 20 – 30 mph with 40 mph gusts. Sandy brought the snowiest October day on record to both Elkins, WV (7″ of snow) and Bluefield, WV (4.7″.)…”

Video: Multiple trees fall during powerful gusts during Superstorm Sandy’s landfall in New Jersey Monday evening (warning: foul language.)

There’s so much more to say about Sandy–including how the storm may have been influenced by climate change–but I’ll save this for later posts, as it’s time to get something posted.

Angela Fritz has a 2:30 pm EDT post that discusses the latest on Sandy’s impact and forecast.

These are extracts from Dr. Jeff Masters (full details follow link)

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

Spanish:

Superstorm arena asesta un golpe devastador a los EE.UU.

Por el Dr. Jeff Masters
Publicado: 3:23 PM GMT en 30 de octubre 2012

“En un impresionante espectáculo de la violencia atmosférica, Superstorm arena tocó tierra en Nueva Jersey anoche con vientos sostenidos de 90 kilómetros por hora y una marea de tormenta devastadora que paralizó la costa de Nueva Jersey y el tamaño de Nueva York. Sandy registro permitió a la tormenta histórica para traer el clima extremo a más de 100 millones de estadounidenses, desde Chicago hasta Maine y desde Michigan a Florida. presión barométrica de Sandy al tocar tierra fue de 946 mb, empatando el Great Long Island Express huracán de 1938 como la tormenta más poderosa que jamás haya golpeado el noreste de EE.UU. al norte de Cabo Hatteras, Carolina del Norte . New York experimentó su peor huracán desde su fundación en 1624, como 9-pie de Sandy oleada de la tormenta iba en la parte superior de una marea alta para que los niveles de agua de 13,88 “a la batería, rompiendo el récord de 11,2” nivel de agua registrados durante el gran huracán de 1821. Daños por Superstorm arena será probablemente de decenas de miles de millones, lo que hace que la tormenta uno de los cinco desastres más costosos en la historia de EE.UU. “.

Figura 1. Imagen de satélite de la mañana Superstorm arena tomada a las 10 am EDT Martes, 30 de octubre 2012. Crédito de la imagen: NASA GSFC.

“…. Sandy nieves
Nieves Sandy han insertada en la ciudad de Davis, WV con un estimado de 26 – 28. “De nieve La mayor parte de la ciudad sin energía eléctrica, y los vientos están soplando 20 – 30. Mph con 40 ráfagas mph arena trajo la más nevoso día de octubre en el registro de tanto Elkins (7 “de nieve) y Bluefield, WV (4,7″). … ”

Video: varios árboles caen durante rachas fuertes durante recalada Superstorm arena en Nueva Jersey la noche del lunes (advertencia:. Lenguaje grosero)

Hay mucho más que decir sobre Sandy – incluyendo la forma en que la tormenta puede haber sido influenciado por el cambio climático – pero voy a guardar esto para puestos más tarde, ya que es hora de conseguir algo publicado.

Angela Fritz tiene un mensaje 14:30 EDT que discute más tardar el impacto de Sandy y pronóstico.

Para saber si tiene que evacuar, por favor póngase en contacto con su oficina local de manejo de emergencias. Ellos tendrán la información más reciente. Las personas que viven en Nueva York puede encontrar su zona de evacuación aquí o utilizar este mapa. FEMA tiene información sobre cómo prepararse para los huracanes. ” http://www.ready.gov/translations/spanish/america/beinformed/hurricanes.html

Estos son extractos del Dr. Jeff Masters (detalles seguir el enlace)

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

French:

Superstorm de sable porte un coup dévastateur aux États-Unis

Par le Dr Jeff Master
Publié: 15:23 GMT le 30 Octobre, 2012

«Dans un spectacle étonnant de la violence atmosphérique, Superstorm Sandy rugit à terre dans le New Jersey hier soir, avec des vents soutenus de 90 mph et une onde de tempête dévastatrice qui paralyse la côte du New Jersey et de la taille d’enregistrement de New York. Sandy a permis la tempête historique à donner du temps extrême plus de 100 millions d’Américains, de Chicago à Maine et du Michigan à la Floride. pression barométrique de sable, à l’atterrissage était de 946 mb, égalant le Grand long Island express Hurricane de 1938, la tempête la plus puissante qui ait jamais frappé le nord-Est américain au nord du cap Hatteras, en Caroline du Nord . New York City a connu sa pire tempête depuis sa création en 1624, comme poussée Sandy tempête 9-pied monté sur le dessus de la marée haute pour ramener les niveaux d’eau à 13,88 ‘à la batterie, brisant l’11,2 dossier «niveau d’eau enregistré au cours de la grand ouragan de 1821. dommages causés par Superstorm sable sera probablement dans les dizaines de milliards, ce qui rend la tempête l’un des cinq catastrophes les plus coûteuses de l’histoire américaine. ”

Figure 1. Image satellite matin du Superstorm Sandy prises à 10 heures HAE le mardi, Octobre 30, 2012. Crédit image: NASA GSFC.

“…. Sandy neiges
Neiges de sable ont mis à mal la ville de Davis, Virginie-Occidentale avec une 26 environ -. 28 “de neige majeure partie de la ville est sans électricité, et les vents soufflent 20 -. 30 mph avec 40 rafales mph sable apporté le plus enneigé jour Octobre au dossier pour à la fois Elkins, Virginie-Occidentale (7 “de la neige) et Bluefield, Virginie-Occidentale (4,7″). … ”

Vidéo: les arbres tombent pendant plusieurs puissantes rafales pendant touché terre Superstorm de sable dans le New Jersey lundi soir (attention:. Langage grossier)

Il ya tellement plus à dire à propos de Sandy – y compris la façon dont la tempête a peut-être été influencé par le changement climatique – mais je vais mettre ça pour les messages plus tard, car il est temps d’obtenir quelque chose posté.

Angela Fritz a 14h30 HAE poste qui traite plus tard sur l’impact de Sandy et de prévision.

Pour savoir si vous devez évacuer, s’il vous plaît contacter votre bureau local de gestion des urgences. Ils auront l’information la plus récente. Les personnes vivant à New York peuvent trouver leur zone d’évacuation ici ou utiliser cette carte. La FEMA a des informations sur la préparation aux ouragans. ” http://www.ready.gov/translations/french/getakitindex.html

Ce sont des extraits de maîtrise Jeff Dr (plus de détails suivre le lien)

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

 

New York Subway/MTA Service Suspended Due to Hurricane Sandy

Service on the NYC Subway and bus network, Long Island Rail Road, Metro-North Railroad, and Staten Island Railway is suspended. Access-A-Ride service, including subscription service is suspended until further notice.The MTA began an orderly shutdown of commuter rail and subway service, as directed by Governor Andrew M. Cuomo, at 7:00 p.m. Sunday, October 28th. The decision to shut down the MTA network was made to protect customers, employees and equipment from the wrath of Hurricane Sandy as the strong storm continues its march up the east coast. This is the only the second time the full network has been shut down preemptively in connection with a weather event.

Subway and rail road stations are closed and access to Penn Station has been restricted. Grand Central Terminal is closed.

The MTA Hurricane Plan calls for suspending service hours before the approach of winds of 39 mph and higher. That gives MTA crews time to prepare rail and subway cars, buses, tunnels, yards and buildings for the storm, then return to safety. Winds of 39 mph and higher are predicted to reach the metropolitan region during the predawn hours Monday.

The MTA began preparing to suspend service several days in advance by readying recovery equipment, clearing drainage areas, moving vehicles from low-lying areas at bus depots and rail yards and sealing some tunnel access points.

The duration of the service suspension is unknown, and there is no timetable for restoration. Service will be restored only when it is safe to do so, and after careful inspections of all equipment, tracks and other sub-systems. Even with minimal damage this is expected to be a lengthy process.

Customers and the media should monitor this website or call 511 for the most current service information.

New York City Transit

MTA New York City Transit subway and bus service was suspended on Sunday October 28th, along with Staten Island Railway (SIR) and Access-A-Ride services.  All mass transit has been suspended in anticipation of the high winds and heavy rains and the significant storm surge driven by Hurricane Sandy.

Maintenance crews worked through the night, taking the necessary steps to protect and secure vital equipment in bus depots, train yards, tunnels and along the right-of-way. This process is taking several hours but most of the work will completed prior to the onset of sustained 39 miles-per-hour tropical force winds.

Long Island Rail Road

MTA Long Island Rail Road has suspended all train service system wide, in advance of Hurricane Sandy making landfall, for the safety of its customers, employees and to protect its equipment.  Access to the LIRR portion of Penn Station and to Jamaica Station is restricted.

Suspending service allows the LIRR to secure and protect its equipment and infrastructure from the strong winds and flooding expected to hit the Long Island on Monday.  With the shutdown, train equipment – both electric and diesel – will be removed from yards in low-lying areas that are prone to flooding.

Metro-North Railroad

Metro-North has suspended all train service due to the expected severity of Hurricane Sandy and its impact on our territory.

Shutting down the system allows Metro-North to secure and protect its equipment and infrastructure from the hurricane force winds and flooding expected to hit the region.

Bridges and Tunnels

The Hugh L. Carey Tunnel (formerly Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel) has been closed in both directions as directed by Governor Andrew M. Cuomo until further notice due to potential flooding as a result of the oncoming storm.

All other MTA crossings remain open as of 2 p.m. on Monday, October 29, 2012.

Motorists are asked to reduce speeds to 25 mph at all crossings due to wind and rain.

In addition, certain types of vehicles including step vans, tractor trailers, motorcycles and vehicles pulling a trailer are barred from crossing the Marine Parkway-Gil Hodges and Cross Bay Veterans bridges at this time due to sustained winds above 50 mph.

Powerful Sandy Making Final Push Toward Mid-Atlantic

UPDATED 2 PM EDT, October 29, 2012

UPDATED By WeatherBug Meteorologist, Seth Carrier

Enlarge

Dangerous Hurricane Sandy remains powerful as it moves toward the Atlantic coast this afternoon. Landfall is expected along the southern New Jersey coast early this evening. Destructive winds producing massive power outages, life-threatening storm surge and inland flooding and hurricane-force coastal winds are all on the weather menu for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as Sandy comes ashore.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from north of Surf City to Duck, N.C., including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Widespread High Wind Warnings stretch from Virginia to Maine and westward into Ohio, with Wind Advisories from Michigan to Georgia.
Preparations to protect life and property should be completed already, and if you have not evacuated, it is likely too late to do so. Tropical storm force wind gusts are already being felt as far north as Long Island and southeastern New England. Hurricane force winds are likely tonight from Chincoteague, Va., to Chatham, Mass., including Delaware Bay, New York City and Long Island.
Sandy`s effects will only grow and worsen across the highly-populated Interstate 95 corridor in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today and tomorrow. For the most up-to-date information, click here.
As of 2 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Sandy was centered near 38.3 N and 73.1 W, or 110 miles southeast of Atlantic City, N.J., and 175 miles south- southeast of New York City. Its top sustained winds are 90 mph, making it a Category One Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Sandy is moving northwest at 28 mph and its minimum central pressure has dropped again to 940 mb, or 27.76 inches of mercury.
Hurricane Sandy remains strong as it passes over the Gulf Stream, and it is expected to remain a hurricane as it bends to the northwest. This will put the center on a path to come ashore near or just south of Atlantic City, N.J. As it approaches the coastline, it will finally lose its tropical characteristics, becoming an extremely strong low pressure system.
The slow transition to a non-tropical low has allowed the winds to spread out from the center, and is what makes Sandy so dangerous. Its hurricane force winds extend 175 miles from the storm`s circulation center and tropical storm force winds up to 485 miles from Sandy`s center. This makes Sandy one of the largest storms in recorded history. As a result, Sandy`s impact will be far-reaching, with damaging winds across the entire Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and even as far west as the Chicago area. It is imperative to monitor the entire storm, not just its center.

Spanish:
Potente arena empuje final hacia la Realización del Atlántico Medio
ACTUALIZADO 14:00 EDT, 29 de octubre 2012
Actualizado por WeatherBug Meteorólogo, Carrier Seth
AmpliarPeligroso huracán de arena sigue siendo fuerte a medida que avanza hacia la costa atlántica de la tarde. Landfall se espera a lo largo de la costa sur de Nueva Jersey a principios de la tarde. Vientos destructivos producen cortes masivos de energía, potencialmente mortal, mareas de tempestad y las inundaciones tierra adentro y son huracanados vientos costeros todo en el menú del tiempo en el Atlántico y el noreste como Sandy llega a la costa.Advertencias de tormenta tropical está en efecto desde el norte de Surf City a Duck, Carolina del Norte, incluyendo Pamlico y Albemarle Sounds. Las advertencias generalizadas vientos fuertes se extienden desde Virginia hasta Maine y hacia el oeste en Ohio, con recomendaciones de los vientos desde Michigan hasta Georgia.Los preparativos para proteger la vida y la propiedad debe ser completado ya, y si no ha evacuado, lo más probable es demasiado tarde para hacerlo. Tormenta tropical ráfagas de viento de fuerza ya se están sintiendo por el norte hasta el sureste de Long Island y Nueva Inglaterra. Los vientos huracanados son probablemente esta noche a partir de Chincoteague, Virginia, en Chatham, Massachusetts, incluyendo Delaware Bay, Nueva York y Long Island.Efectos Sandy `s sólo va a crecer y empeorar a través de la muy poblada de la Interestatal 95 en el corredor noreste y del Atlántico medio de hoy y de mañana. Para la información más actualizada, haga clic aquí.Hasta las 2 pm hora del este, el huracán Sandy tuvo su epicentro cerca 38,3 N y W 73,1, o 110 kilómetros al sureste de Atlantic City, Nueva Jersey, y 175 kilómetros al sur-sureste de New York City. Sus vientos máximos sostenidos son de 90 kilómetros por hora, convirtiéndolo en un huracán de categoría uno en la escala Saffir-Simpson. Sandy se desplazaba hacia el noroeste a 28 kilómetros por hora y su presión mínima central ha descendido de nuevo a 940 mb, o 27,76 pulgadas de mercurio.Huracán Sandy se mantiene fuerte a su paso por la Corriente del Golfo, y se espera que se mantenga como un huracán que se dobla hacia el noroeste. Esto pondrá al centro en un camino para bajar a tierra cerca o justo al sur de Atlantic City, NJ medida que se acerca la línea de costa, que finalmente pierde sus características tropicales, convirtiéndose en un sistema de baja presión extremadamente fuerte.La lenta transición a una baja no tropical ha permitido que los vientos se extienden desde el centro, y es lo que hace tan peligroso arena. Sus vientos con fuerza de huracán se extienden 175 millas del centro de la tormenta `s la circulación y vientos de tormenta tropical hasta 485 kilómetros del centro de la arena` s. Esto hace que una arena de las mayores tormentas de la historia. Como resultado, el impacto de arena `s será de gran envergadura, con vientos dañinos a través de todo el Atlántico Medio y el noreste, e incluso hacia el oeste hasta el área de Chicago. Es imprescindible controlar la tormenta entera, no sólo de su centro.

More on this from Weatherbug (link)

French:

Puissant Sandy poussoir Faire final vers la mi-Atlantique
MISE À JOUR 14:00 HAE, Octobre 29, 2012
Mis à jour par WeatherBug météorologue, Camion Seth

Agrandir

Dangereux ouragan de sable reste puissant comme il se déplace vers la côte de l’Atlantique cet après-midi. Landfall est prévu le long de la côte sud du New Jersey tôt ce soir. Produisant des vents destructeurs pannes d’électricité massives, des ondes de tempête mortelle et l’intérieur des terres des inondations et des vents d’ouragan côtières sont tous sur le menu météo pour le Mid-Atlantic et le nord de Sandy débarque.

Avis de tempête tropicale sont en vigueur depuis le nord de Surf City Duck, Caroline du Nord, y compris Pamlico et sons Albemarle. Répandues avertissements de vent élevées étirer de la Virginie au Maine et à l’ouest dans l’Ohio, avec Avis vent du Michigan à la Géorgie.

Les préparatifs pour protéger la vie et la propriété devrait être achevé déjà, et si vous n’avez pas évacué, il est probablement trop tard pour le faire. Tropical rafales de tempête force du vent se font déjà sentir aussi loin au nord que le sud-est de Long Island et la Nouvelle-Angleterre. Des ouragans sont susceptibles soir à partir de Chincoteague, en Virginie, à Chatham, Massachusetts, y compris la baie du Delaware, New York et Long Island.

Effets Sandy `s ne fera que croître et empirer dans le très peuplée de l’Interstate 95 dans le couloir Nord-Est et Mid-Atlantic aujourd’hui et de demain. Pour l’information la plus à jour, cliquez ici.

Au 2 h HAE, l’ouragan de sable a été centrée près de 38,3 N et 73,1 W, ou 110 miles au sud-est de Atlantic City, New Jersey, et à 175 miles au sud-sud-est de New York. Ses premiers vents soutenus sont de 90 mph, ce qui en fait un ouragan de catégorie un sur l’échelle de Saffir-Simpson Vent ouragan. Sandy se déplace au nord-ouest à 28 mph et sa pression centrale minimale a chuté de nouveau à 940 mb, ou 27,76 pouces de mercure.

L’ouragan de sable reste forte qu’elle passe au-dessus du Gulf Stream, et il devrait rester un ouragan comme il se plie au nord-ouest. Cela mettra le centre sur un chemin de descendre à terre à proximité ou juste au sud d’Atlantic City, NJ À l’approche de la côte, il finira par perdre ses caractéristiques tropicales, devenant ainsi un système de pression extrêmement forte à faible.

La lente transition vers une faible non-tropical a permis aux vents de se propager à partir du centre, et c’est ce qui rend si dangereux de sable. Ses vents de force ouragan s’étendent 175 miles du centre de la tempête `s la circulation et tropicales vents de force tempête jusqu’à 485 miles du centre de sable` s. Cela fait un sable des plus grandes tempêtes de l’histoire. En conséquence, l’impact de sable s `est de grande envergure, avec des vents destructeurs à travers l’ensemble du littoral de l’Atlantique et du Nord, et même aussi loin à l’ouest que la région de Chicago. Il est impératif de surveiller la tempête, et non seulement son centre.

»

More on this from Weatherbug (link)

Press:

26 Oct 2012:

Sandy has left 21 dead, is likely to merge into #Frankenstorm, ravage New England.

(CNN) — No one hopes Hurricane Sandy lives up to its potential.

The storm that has already claimed nearly two dozen lives in the Caribbean churned Friday near northern Bahamas, and meteorologists warn that it packs the potential to slam the Northeastern United States as soon as Monday with powerful winds, pelting rain and cold temperatures.

Worst case, Sandy could merge with a strong cold front from the west. The double threat could morph into a “superstorm” that could sit over New England for days, making untold trouble for millions of residents. Weather experts said it’s a recipe not unlike 1991’s “Perfect Storm.”

At 11 a.m. ET Friday, forecasters said Sandy is losing shape and is a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 80 mph. But it’s not to be taken lightly.

Keep a hurricane preparation checklist

Hurricane Sandy ‘storm of a lifetime’
Hurricane Sandy hits Jamaica

“Forget about the category with this,” said CNN meteorologist Rob Marciano. “When you have trees with leaves on them still, this kind of wind and rain on top of that, you’re talking about trees that are going to come down, power lines are going to be out and the coastal flooding situation is going to be huge.”

Sandy’s death toll in Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba this week was 21 people.

The U.S. target area is hard to predict at this point. Some landfall computer models show the storm striking somewhere between Washington and Boston — some of the most densely populated areas of the country.

U.S. residents in those areas, forecasters said, should prepare for the possibility of several days without power.

“There is potential for widespread power outages, not just for a couple of days but for a couple of weeks or more, if the storm stays on track,” said meteorologist Kathy Orr of CNN affiliate KYW-TV in Philadelphia.

Sandy could be a storm “of historic proportion,” she warns, and the City of Brotherly Love could take a direct hit.

“This could be like the ‘Perfect Storm’ 21 years ago,” said CNN meteorologist Chad Meyers.

A combination of three weather systems produced the famed “Perfect Storm” in the north Atlantic over Halloween 1991 when moisture flung north by Hurricane Grace combined with a high pressure system and a cold front, according to the weather service.

Hurricane safety: When the lights go out

The current weather conditions are not exactly the same as what produced the 1991 tempest. Although Grace contributed significantly to the storm, it did not progress to New England and did not make landfall, weather records show.

On Friday, residents in South Jersey were alreadystocking up on batteries and bottled water, and hardware stores have put up preparedness displays, KYW reported. One location quickly sold out of electric generators.

“This is the worst timing for a storm,” Newark Mayor Cory Booker told CNN’s Soledad O’Brien. “You have fall ending, a lot of loose branches.

“The storm itself will be bad, but I worry about the aftermath, people being caught without power.”

Along the Jersey shore, storm preparations included bulldozers shoring up piers with mounds of sand. Worried residents filled sandbags in case of flooding.

“We will be piling up as much sand as possible along the beachfront,” said Frank Ricciotti, Margate, New Jersey, public works director. “I think the water damage is worse than another type of damage, and the hardest thing is to stop water, once it starts coming up.”

With a national election already under way in many early voting states, Sandy’s wrath also could have a ripple effect on politics.

Bad weather in Maryland or Washington could make it harder for people to get out and cast their ballots at early voting locations. Early voting kicked off Monday in Washington and will start Saturday in Maryland.

“From Sunday through Wednesday, winds of hurricane force are expected to lash exposed areas of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic states, leading to potentially serious coastal erosion and coastal flooding,” the National Hurricane Center reported.

The weather service also warns “the buildup of tides over multiple tidal cycles should exacerbate the situation.”

Stay well-fed in any disaster

29 Oct 2012: 

Sky News live updates

UPDATE 11:49AM (NZT): Reports of a building collapse on 8th Avenue. LIVE FDNY streaming here.

VIDEO: ABC 7 Eyewitness News New York LIVE coverage.

VIDEO: FOX 5 Live New York LIVE coverage.

AUDIO: Atlantic County and City Fire/EMS SCANNER FEED.

AUDIO: National Hurricane Center Skywarn Amateur radio feed.

AUDIO: NYPD Special Operations SCANNER feed from New York.

30 Oct 2012:

Watch CBS News LIVE online coverage about #Sandy aftermath here

Bloomberg has a live rooftop video camera stream in New York

The (Newark) Star-Ledger also has webcams set up along New Jersey beaches.

Quartz has rounded up links to webcams up and down the East Coast.

31 Oct 2012:

Sandy: Dramatic Footage Of Air Rescue

(Image: Sky News)
Sandy: Dramatic Footage Of Air Rescue

“Dramatic footage has been released of people being plucked from their flood-hit homes by helicopter  here (link to Sky News)

Video shows New York Police Department rescue teams loading people onto a helicopter winch to safety, as flood waters rose.”

“...At least 55 people died across the US and Canada, and many are still missing, including two boys aged two and four.

New York was the worst-hit city in the US.” – Sky News

9,000 people spent Tuesday (30 Oct) night in 171 Red Cross shelters in 13 states

Sandy Forces Cancellation of About 300 Blood Drives

“Those who are eligible in areas unaffected by the storm are asked to schedule a blood donation now.

Superstorm Sandy has already caused the cancellation of about 300 American Red Cross blood drives and more cancellations are expected as the storm continues to move to the west.

“Patients will still need blood despite the weather,” said Dr. Richard Benjamin, chief medical officer of the Red Cross. “To ensure a sufficient national blood supply is available for those in need, both during and after the storm passes, it is critical that those in unaffected areas make an appointment to donate blood as soon as possible.”

So far, the cancellations have resulted in a shortfall of more than 9,000 blood and platelet donations across 14 states that would otherwise be available for those needing transfusions. The situation may worsen as the storm continues to move and in its aftermath.

The Red Cross did move blood and blood products to those areas most likely to be affected by Sandy so that the blood needs of people in those communities could be met. However, the long- term impact of power outages and blood drive cancellations is expected to be significant.

SCHEDULE AN APPOINTMENT

Every two seconds, someone in the United States needs blood. An average of 44,000 blood donations are needed each and every day across the country to help treat accident victims, cancer patients, and children with blood disorders. These patients and others rely on blood products during their treatment. This need does not diminish when disaster strikes.

WHO CAN GIVE? All blood types are needed to ensure a reliable supply for patients. A blood donor card or driver’s license, or two other forms of identification are required at check-in. Individuals who are 17 years of age (16 with parental permission in some states), weigh at least 110 pounds and are generally in good health may be eligible to donate blood. High school students and other donors 18 years of age and younger also have to meet certain height and weight requirements.” – redcrossblood.org

Much media focus on the United States but don’t forget the Caribbean

“Jamaica

Sandy was the first direct hit by the eye of a hurricane on Jamaica since Hurricane Gilbert 24 years ago. The storm hit Jamaica as a category 1 hurricane. Extensive damage was reported on the island. Trees and power lines were snapped and shanty houses were heavily damaged, both from the winds and flooding rains. More than 100 fishermen were stranded in outlying Pedro Cays off Jamaica’s southern coast.[7] Stones falling from a hillside crushed one man to death as he tried to get into his house in a rural village near Kingston.[8] The country’s sole electricity provider, the Jamaica Public Service Company, reported that 70 percent of its customers were without power. Looters shot and wounded a police official as he led a group of officers through Craig Town, a section of West Kingston. More than 1,000 people went to shelters, the Office of Disaster Preparedness said. Jamaican authorities closed the island’s international airports, and police ordered 48-hour curfews in major towns to keep people off the streets and deter looting. Cruise ships changed their itineraries to avoid the storm, which made landfall the afternoon of October 24 near the capital, Kingston.[9]

The day after the storm, government officials went on an aerial tour of the rural eastern areas of the island. Parliament member Daryl Vaz reported that most buildings had lost their roofs, in addition to widespread damage to banana crops. Approximately 70 percent of the island lost power because of Sandy, and schools in the Kingston area would likely remain closed for a week. Resorts in Montego Bay and Negril sustained no major damage, and cruise ship terminals reopened to vessels after a 24-hour suspension of services. Authorities warned that the extent of the damage is not clear, since some major roads remained impassable, and it would likely be weeks before life in most areas returned to normal.[10] Damage totaled $16.5 million throughout the country.[11]

Haiti

In Haiti, which was still recovering from both the 2010 earthquake and the ongoing cholera outbreak, at least 52 people have died,[12] and an estimated 200,000 were left homeless as of October 29, as a result of four days of ongoing rain from Hurricane Sandy.[13] Reports of significant damage to Port-Salut were received as rivers overflowed their banks.[14] In the capital of Port-au-Prince whole streets were flooded by the heavy rains and “the whole south of the country is underwater”.[15] Most of the tents and buildings in the city’s sprawling refugee camps and the CitĂ© Soleil neighborhood were flooded or leaking, a repeat of what happened earlier in the year during the passage of Hurricane Isaac.[10] The United Nations warned that flooding and unsanitary conditions could lead to a cholera epidemic once again two years after a cholera epidemic in 2010 sickened 600,000 people and killed more than 7,400. In addition, crops were also wiped out by the storm” and the country would be making an appeal for emergency aid.[16]

Dominican Republic

In the Dominican Republic two people were killed and 8,755 people evacuated as officials said the rains were expected to continue until at least October 27.[17][18] Travelling by vehicle was very hard in places as some roads had high water levels. An employee of CNN estimated 70% of the streets in Santo Domingo were flooded. Some cars were underwater, and people with trucks were charging motorists $5 to pull their vehicles out, while others were doing it for free.[19]

Cuba

Hurricane Sandy damage in Guantanamo Bay

Hurricane Sandy strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane before hitting Cuba.[20] At least 55,000 people had been evacuated principally because of expected flooding from rains that could total up to 20 inches (500 mm) in some places and a storm surge the Cuban weather service said was already beginning along the southeastern coast around midnight EDT.[21] Sandy made landfall just west of Santiago de Cuba, the country’s second-largest city, as a strong Category 2 hurricane, with the strong eastern eyewall passing directly over the city.[22][23] The eye of the storm came ashore just west of the city with waves up to 29 feet (9 meters) and a six-foot (2 meter) storm surge that caused extensive coastal flooding.[24]

Reports from the area after the passage of Sandy spoke of widespread damage, particularly to Santiago de Cuba. Throughout the province, 132,733 homes were damaged, of which 15,322 were destroyed and 43,426 lost their roof.[25] Electricity and water services had been knocked out, and most of the trees in the city had either been ripped off their roots or had lost all their leaves. Several Cuban provinces promised to send brigades to help Santiago recover, although officials gave a long list of other towns that suffered devastation. Guantánamo followed a similar fate to Santiago, with television showing telephone poles and cables down across the city. Several historic buildings in the center of town were reportedly damaged.[citation needed] Total losses throughout Santiago de Cuba province reached CUP2.1 billion (US$80 million).[25]

State media has said at least 11 people in Cuba were killed as a result of the storm, and Raúl Castro planned to visit Santiago de Cuba in the coming days. Nine of the deaths were in Santiago de Cuba Province and two were in Guantánamo Province and most of the victims were trapped in destroyed houses.[26][27] This makes Sandy the deadliest hurricane to hit Cuba since 2005, when Hurricane Dennis killed 16 people.[28]

Damage to the U.S. Guantanamo Bay Naval Base was not as severe, and there were no reports of injuries at the base. The highest sustained winds were below hurricane strength at 54 miles per hour (87 km/h), with a maximum gust of 66 miles per hour (106 km/h). The storm damaged roofs and windows in a few older buildings and tore some of the power cables within the facility. Several recreational boats broke off their moorings, but there was no damage to the prison, according to Navy Capt. Robert Durand.[29]

Puerto Rico

Police said a man was killed on October 26 in Juana Diaz. He was swept away in a river swollen by rain from Sandy’s outer bands. In addition, flooding forced at least 100 families in the southwest to seek new shelter.[30] “

– Extract from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Sandy_in_the_Greater_Antilles