Comoros Islands/ Mayotte/ Madagascar/ Mozambique/ Mozambique Channel: Tropical Cyclone BELNA 02S07/1800Z #02S 10.9S 47.2E, moving S 07kt. 964hPa (RSMC La Réunion) – Published 07 Dec 2019 1940Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone BELNA

BELNA is a CAT2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, expected to become a CAT3 storm on the same scale by 7 Dec, 18:00 UTC., and further intensify to a CAT4 storm by 8 Dec, 18:00 UTC (TSR UCL London data)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 26 FEET – JTWC

METEO FRANCE

La Réunion

swi02_20192020

Bulletin du 07 décembre à 22H12 locales Réunion:

CYCLONE TROPICAL BELNA.Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 155 km/h.Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 220 km/h.Pression estimée au centre: 964 hPa.Position le 07 décembre à 22 heures locales Réunion: 10.9 Sud / 47.2 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 1410 km au secteur: NORD-OUEST Distance de Mayotte: 310 km au secteur: NORD-ESTDéplacement: SUD, à 13 km/h.

Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.Consulter le Bulletin d’Activité Cyclonique (voir menu de droite)pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système

Bulletin of 07 December at 22H12 local Réunion:

CYCLONE TROPICAL BELNA.Wind maximum (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 155 km / h. Estimated maximum sea speeds: 220 km / h. Estimated pressure in the center: 964 hPa.Position 07 December at 22:00 local Réunion: 10.9 South / 47.2 East.

Distance of the Reunion coast: 1410 km to the sector: NORTH-WEST Distance from Mayotte: 310 km to the sector: NORTHEASTMove: SOUTH, 13 km / h.

This bulletin is now complete.See the Cyclonic Activity Bulletin (see right menu) for forecasts on this system

See more here: http://www.meteofrance.re/cyclone/activite-cyclonique-en-cours/dirre/BELNA

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 02S (Belna) Warning #06
Issued at 07/0900Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
070600Z — NEAR 9.6S 47.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 47.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z — 10.7S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 11.9S 46.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 13.2S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 14.7S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 18.3S 44.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 21.6S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 25.2S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 9.9S 47.3E.
07DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
862 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 5-10 NM EYE IN ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN
THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KTS) AND A
070548Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 75 KTS. WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. TC 02S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 115 KTS BY TAU 36.
AFTERWARD, TC 02S WILL BEGIN ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AND EXPERIENCE
LESS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. THAT, COUPLED WITH LAND INTERACTION WITH
MADAGASCAR, SHOULD CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO BEGIN FALLING, SLOWLY AT
FIRST THEN MORE RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 96, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER MADAGASCAR AND EMERGE BACK OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN AS A 30 KT SYSTEM. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED
WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR AN EASTERN OUTLIER (NAVGEM).
NOTABLY, THE FORECAST TRACK FALLS EAST OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH
KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER WATER UNTIL ABOUT TAU 120. IF TC 02S FOLLOWS A
TRACK SIMILAR TO THAT SOLUTION, THE STORM COULD INTENSIFY FURTHER OR
WEAKEN MORE SLOWLY. BASED ON SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 7 Dec, 2019 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone BELNA is currently located near 9.6 S 47.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). BELNA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. BELNA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cosmoledo Is. (9.5 S, 47.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mayotte
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Madagascar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dzaoudzi (12.8 S, 45.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Soalala (16.1 S, 45.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 48 hours
    Besalampy (16.7 S, 44.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
    Mahajanga (15.7 S, 46.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 48 hours
    Maintirano (18.0 S, 44.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

B7 DocR

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 071811
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/12/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 07/12/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELNA) 964 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.9 S / 47.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/08 AT 06 UTC:
12.2 S / 46.6 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/12/08 AT 18 UTC:
13.5 S / 46.1 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

 

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Tanzania hunts homosexuals, threatens ’round-up’ – Reblogged from Erasing 76 Crimes

A Tanzanian official is threatening to launch a round-up of homosexuals starting next week. Paul Makonda, the governor of Dar-es-Salaam, said his anti-gay “ad hoc team” will “get their hands on them next Monday.” To prepare for the round-up, he asked the general public yesterday to call him with the names of homosexuals living in…

via Tanzania hunts homosexuals, threatens ’round-up’ — Erasing 76 Crimes

Yemen/ Oman/ Arabian Sea: Tropical Deep Depression LUBAN 140900Z near 15.9N 51.7°E, moving WNW ~8.09kt/15kmph (RSMC New Delhi) – Updated 14 Oct 2018 1612Z (GMT/UTC)

Deep Depression LUBAN

Cyclonic Storm, ‘LUBAN’ weakened into a deep depression over Yemen – IMD

Impacting Yemen & adjoining areas of Oman, Gulf of Aden and westcentral Arabian Sea

INDIA

 

 

IMD

India Meteorological Department
Earth System Science Organisation
(Ministry of Earth Sciences


BULLETIN NO. : 61 (ARB 04/2018)
TIME OF ISSUE: 1630 HOURS IST DATED: 14.10.2018
FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (FAX NO. 24643965/24699216/24623220)
TO: CONTROL ROOM, NDM, MINISTRY OF HOME AFFAIRS (FAX.NO. 23093750)
CONTROL ROOM NDMA (FAX.NO. 26701729)
CABINET SECRETARIAT (FAX.NO.23012284, 23018638)
PS TO HON’BLE MINISTER FOR S & T AND EARTH SCIENCES (FAX NO.23316745)
SECRETARY, MOES, (FAX NO. 24629777)
H.Q. (INTEGRATED DEFENCE STAFF AND CDS) (FAX NO. 23005137/23005147)
DIRECTOR GENERAL, DOORDARSHAN (23421101)
DIRECTOR GENERAL, AIR (23421105, 23421219)
PIB MOES (FAX NO. 23389042)
UNI (FAX NO. 23355841)
D.G. NATIONAL DISASTER RESPONSE FORCE (NDRF) (FAX NO. 24363261)
DIRECTOR, PUNCTUALITY, INDIAN RAILWAYS (FAX NO. 23388503)
CHIEF SECRETARY, TAMILNADU (FAX NO. 044-25672304)
CHIEF SECRETARY, KERALA (FAX NO. 0471-2327176)
ADMINISTRATOR, LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS (FAX NO. 04896-262184)
ADMINISTRATOR, UNION TERRITORY OF DAMAN & DIU AND DADRA NAGAR HAVELI (0260-2230775)
CHIEF SECRETARY, KARNATAKA (FAX NO. 080-22258913)
CHIEF SECRETARY, GOA (FAX NO. 0832-2415201)
CHIEF SECRETARY, MAHARASHTRA (FAX NO. 022- 22028594)
CHIEF SECRETARY, GUJARAT (FAX NO. 079-23250305)
Sub: Cyclonic Storm, ‘LUBAN’ weakened into a deep depression over Yemen
The Cyclonic Storm ‘LUBAN’ over coastal Yemen moved further west-northwestwards during
past 06 hours with a speed of 15 kmph, weakened into a deep depression and lay centered at 1430
hrs IST of today, the 14th October 2018 over Yemen near latitude 15.9°N and longitude 51.7°E, about
40 km west-southwest of Al-Ghaidah (Yemen). It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and
weaken further into a depression during next 6 hours.
(i) Wind warning
Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is very likely over coastal areas of
east Yemen & adjoining areas of Oman, Gulf of Aden and westcentral Arabian Sea during next
06 hours and it is very likely to decrease thereafter.
(ii) Sea condition
The sea condition will be rough to very rough over westcentral Arabian Sea along & off south
Oman and Yemen coasts and also over adjoining areas of Gulf of Aden during next 06 hours. It
will improve rapidly thereafter.
(iii) Fishermen Warning
The fishermen are advised not to venture into westcentral Arabian Sea along & off south Oman
and Yemen coasts and also into Gulf of Aden during next 06 hours.
The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST 14th October, 2018.
(Naresh Kumar)
Scientist-E, RSMC, New Delhi
Copy to: CRS, Pune/ RSMC Guwahati/ ACWC Chennai/ Kolkata/ Mumbai/MC Goa/ Thiruvanathapuram/ Bengaluru/ CWC Ahmedabad.

SOURCE (.PDF File): http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

OMAN

Alert No. (6)
Tropical System in Arabian Sea
Category: Tropical Storm (Luban)
Issuing time: 11 pm
Date: 13th October 2018
Issuing No: 10
Due to potential of heavy rainfall accompanied by fresh winds and probability of flash floods over Governorate of Dhofar, The Public Authority for Civil Aviation advices to take fully precautions and to avoid the low lying areas ,wadi`s and riding the sea during this period and to follow its latest weather bulletins.
Latest updates:
Center of tropical storm (Luban): lat. 15.0 N and Long 53.4 E
Distance from Salalah city: 240 km
Wind speed around the center: 45 to 55 Knots (83 – 102 Km/h)
The tropical storm (Luban) continues moving west towards Yemen’s coasts. Dhofar Governorate is likely continuing to be affected by heavy rain, thundershower at times on Sunday, and 14th of October 2018 with easterly to southeasterly fresh wind of 30-45 Knots (56-83 km/h) and gusting to gale wind over mountainous areas. The sea continues to be rough state with maximum wave of 6 to 8 meters.
The chances for indirect impact on the southern parts of al-Wusta Governorate continues with scattered rain and easterly to southeasterly moderate winds of 20 to 25 Knots (37-46 km/h) on Sunday , 14th of October 2018.
The alert will be updated every 12 hours.

download

 

METEOSAT Imagery – Synoptic

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 05A (Luban) Warning #26 Final Warning
Issued at 14/0900Z

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140851ZOCT2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPCIAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
140600Z — NEAR 15.8N 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 52.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 16.2N 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 51.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
2.THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF (WTIO31 PGTW 140900).//
NNNN

Other

DrR Yemen L

(Image: @RoshinRowjee )

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 140900

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 14 OCTOBER 2018.

PART:-I NIL
PART:-II

THE CYCLONIC STORM LUBAN OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING PAST 06 HOURS WITH A SPEED OF 17 KMPH
AND CROSSED YEMEN COAST NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 52.2
DEG E ABOUT 30 KM SOUTH OF AL-GHAIDAH DURING 1100 – 1130 HRS IST OF
TODAY WITH AN ESTIMATED SUSTAINED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 70-80 KMPH
GUSTING TO 90 KMPH. IT LAY CENTERED AT 1130 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE
14TH OCTOBER 2018 OVER COASTAL YEMEN NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 52.1 DEG E, ABOUT 20 KM SOUTH OF AL-GHAIDAH (YEMEN). IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION
DURING NEXT 6 HOURS.

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 72 DEG E TO S OF 4 DEG N
SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 54 DEG E (.)
2)W OF 72 DEG E TO N OF 4 DEG N NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)E OF 72 DEG E NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 DEG E : NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 62 DEG E TO N OF 4 DEG N W/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)E OF 62 DEG E TO S OF 4 DEG N S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)E OF 60 DEG E FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 60 DEG E 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 64 DEG E:
ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 64 DEG E N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE-LY 05/10
KTS TO THE S OF 14 DEG N (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N : W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-W OF 55 DEG E :ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: W OF 55 DEG E :8-6 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 70 DEG E
ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 15 DEG TO E OF 61 DEG E SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG TO E OF 61 DEG E 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)E OF 88 DEG E TO S OF 6 DEG N
ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 89 DEG E E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 69 DEG E S-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/10
KTS TO THE W OF 86 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 14 DEG N SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 14 DEG N 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS –
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 15 DEG N SE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 18 DEG N FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
II)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 18 DEG N 4-3 NM RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

++++

OMAN

OMAN MARINE FORECAST FOR COASTAL WATERS

ISSUED AT 0600 ON 14/10/2018

AND VALID FROM 14/0600 TO 14/1800 UTC

REGIONAL SYNOPSIS: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SULTANATE.

WEATHER: CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS

WITH CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND FRESH WINDS.

WARNING: ROUGH SEA CONDITION EXPECTED DURING TROPICAL

STORM LUBAN ALONG THE ARABIAN SEA COASTS.

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS & VISIBILITY DETAILS FOLLOWS:

MUSANDAM WEST MUSANDAM EAST

WIND: VRB 05-12 KT WIND: SE/S 06-12 KT

SEA: SLT 1.0 M SEA: SLT 1.25 M

SWELL: NE 0.25 M SWELL: S/SE 0.25 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

BAYAH-MUSCAT MUSCAT VICINITY

WIND: NE TO VRB 03-10 KT WIND: SE TO NE 03-12 KT

SEA: SLT 0.5 M SEA: SLT 0.75 M

SWELL: E 0.5 KT SWELL: E 0.5 KT

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

MUSCAT-SUR SUR-MASIRAH

WIND: NE TO VRB 02-08 KT WIND: NE TO SE 08-18 KT

SEA: SLT 0.75 M SEA: MOD TO ROUGH 2.0-3.0 M

SWELL: E 0.5 KT SWELL: S 1.5 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN.

MASIRAH-MADRAKAH MADRAKAH-ALJAZIR

WIND: E/SE 10-20 KT WIND: E/SE 15-25 KT

SEA: MOD TO ROUGH 2.0-3.0 M SEA: ROUGH 3.0 M

SWELL: S 1.5-2.5 M SWELL: SE 3.0 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH CHANCES OF ISOLATED RAIN.WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH CHANCES OF ISOLATED RAIN.

ALJAZIR-SADAH SADAH-DHALKUT

WIND: E/SE 15-35 KT WIND: SE/E 25-40 KT

SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH 6-8 M SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH 6-8 M

SWELL: E 2-4 M SWELL: E/SE 3-5 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED RAIN.WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED RAIN.

OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS:

CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS WITH CHANCE OF

HEAVY RAIN AND FRESH WINDS.

WARNING:

ROUGH SEA CONDITION EXPECTED DURING TROPICAL STORM LUBAN ALONG THE

ARABIAN SEA COASTS.

PREPARED BY FORECASTER: AL-SHEDHANY. FORECASTER TELEPHONE: 24354661

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Is La Niña on the way? – Reblogged from UK Met Office (05 Oct 2017)

During 2015 and 2016, the planet experienced one of the largest El Niño events in a century. El Niño (Spanish for the boy) is actually the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and climate scientists are now suggesting that this oscillation in tropical Pacific temperature is likely tipping towards its opposite cool phase, La […]

via Is La Niña on the way? — Official blog of the Met Office news team

Ethiopia: Two million animals have been lost to a “devastating” drought, says UNFAO – Published 13 Aug 2017 1245z (GMT/UTC)

The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has said that two million animals have been lost to a “devastating” drought in Ethiopia.

Healthy animals = elimination of hunger = healthy people = sustainable food production. – FAO

The UN agriculture agency said that the drought had devastated herders’ livelihoods as it exhausted pastures and water sources.

(Image: UNFAO)

It said the current food and nutrition crisis was significantly aggravated by the severe blow to pastoral livelihoods. “For livestock-dependent families, the animals can literally mean the difference between life and death – especially for children, pregnant and nursing mothers, for whom milk is a crucial source of nutrition.

“With up to two million animals lost so far, FAO is focusing on providing emergency livestock support to the most vulnerable pastoralist communities through animal vaccination and treatment, supplementary feed and water, rehabilitating water points, and supporting fodder and feed production”. FAO stressed that supporting the herders to get back on their feet and prevent further livestock losses was crucial in the Horn of Africa country, where hunger had been on the rise. “The drought has led to a significant number of animals dying or falling ill, particularly in the southern and south-eastern regions of the country, as other areas recover from previous seasons’ El Niño-induced drought,” the UN agency warned. It also said that drought-hit pastoralists were facing reduced milk production, rising malnutrition, and had limited income-earning capacity and severely constrained access to food. Abdoul Bah, FAO deputy representative in Ethiopia, said “some 8.5 million people – one in 12 people – are now suffering from hunger; of these, 3.3 million people live in Somali Region. “It is crucial to provide this support between now and October – when rains are due – to begin the recovery process and prevent further losses of animals. If we don’t act now, hunger and malnutrition will only get worse among pastoral communities.” According to Bah, by providing supplementary feed and water for livestock, while simultaneously supporting fodder production, FAO seeks to protect core breeding animals and enable drought-hit families to rebuild their livelihoods. In addition to FAO-supported destocking and cash-for-work programmes to provide cash for families, he said animal health campaigns would be reinforced to protect animals, particularly before the rain sets in – when they are at their weakest and more susceptible to parasites or infectious diseases. Bah said FAO urgently required $20 million between August and December to come to the aid of Ethiopia’s farmers and herders. “FAO has already assisted almost 500,000 drought-hit people in 2017 through a mix of livestock feed provision, de-stocking and animal health interventions,” he said. The support was courtesy of the Ethiopia humanitarian fund, Switzerland, Spain and Sweden through FAO’s special fund for emergency and rehabilitation activities, the UN central emergency response fund, as well as FAO’s own early warning early action (EWEA) fund and technical cooperation programme.

RSOE August 12 2017 01:23 PM (UTC).

Urgent support is needed in drought-stricken Ethiopia – @FAOemergencies
http://www.fao.org/emergencies/fao-in-action/stories/stories-detail/en/c/1029234/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Ethiopia: Around 4.5 million people affected by drought in Afar and southern Somali regions – Published 06 Sept 2015 0753z (GMT/UTC)

Around 4.5 million Ethiopians could be in need of food aid because of a drought in the country, the UN has said. Hardest-hit areas are Ethiopia’s eastern Afar and southern Somali regions, while pastures and water resources are also unusually low in central and eastern Oromo region, and northern Tigray and Amhara districts. Reacting to the UN’s claims that the number in need had increased by more than 55 percent this year, Alemayew Berhanu, spokesman for Ministry of Agriculture, told Al Jazeera that Ethiopia had “enough surplus food at emergency depots and we’re distributing it”. “When we were informed about the problem, the federal government and the regional state authorities started an outreach programme for the affected people,” he said. In August, the Ethiopian government said that it had allocated $35m to deal with the crisis that has been blamed on El Niño, a warm ocean current that develops between Indonesia and Peru. The UN says it needs $230m by the end of the year to attend to the crisis. “The absence of rains means that the crops don’t grow, the grass doesn’t grow and people can’t feed their animals,” David Del Conte, UNOCHA’S chief in Ethiopia, said. One farmer in the town of Zway told Al Jazeera that he was selling personal belongings to stay alive. “There is nothing we can do. We don’t have enough crops to provide for our families. We are having to sell our cattle to buy food but the cattle are sick because they don’t have enough to eat,” Balcha, who has a family of nine, and grows corn and wheat, said. The onset of El Niño means the spatial distribution of rainfall from June to September has being very low. According to the UN children’s agency (UNICEF), the El Niño weather pattern in 2015 is being seen as the strongest of the last 20 years. Experts say it could be a major problem for the country’s economy, as agriculture generates about half of the country’s income. Climate shocks are common in Ethiopia and often lead to poor or failed harvests which result in high levels of acute food insecurity. Approximately 44 percent of children under 5 years of age in Ethiopia are severely chronically malnourished, or stunted, and nearly 28 percent are underweight, according to the CIA World Factbook. UNICEF says that about 264,515 children will require treatment for acute severe malnutrition in 2015 while 111,076 children were treated for severe acute malnutrition between January and May 2015.

Saturday, 05 September, 2015 at 13:40 (01:40 PM) UTC RSOE

File:Ethiopia - Location Map (2013) - ETH - UNOCHA.svg

CLICK IMAGE TO FIND OUT MORE Image: OCHA

Atlantic Ocean/ Cape Verde Islands: Hurricane Fred CAT1 31/1800Z 16.9N 24.2W, moving NW 10 knots (NHC) – Updated 31 Aug 2015 1840Z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Fred

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Cape Verde Islands

…FRED BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS…
…CENTER PASSING VERY NEAR SAO NICOLAU ISLAND……NHC FL

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Hurricane Center

175010W5_NL_sm

000
WTNT31 KNHC 311749
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
200 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015

…FRED BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS…
…CENTER PASSING VERY NEAR SAO NICOLAU ISLAND…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.9N 24.2W
ABOUT 20 MI…30 KM NNE OF RIBEIRA BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM ESE OF RIBEIRA GRANDE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Cape Verde Islands

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fred was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 24.2 West. Fred is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Fred is expected to pass near or over the northwestern
Cape Verde Islands through early tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through early tonight
while Fred passes near the northwestern Cape Verde Islands. Gradual
weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to
spread across the northwestern Cape Verde Islands through this
evening and continue into the overnight hours.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than indicated in this advisory,
and in some elevated locations can be even greater.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 10 inches. These rains are likely to produce
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

TSR N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 31 Aug, 2015 15:00 GMT

Hurricane FRED (AL06) currently located near 16.4 N 23.7 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Cape Verde
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201506N

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
000
AXNT20 KNHC 311756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…
HURRICANE FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 24.2W AT 31/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT 20 NM NNE OF RIBEIRA BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 50 NM ESE OF RIBEIRA GRANDE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-
18N BETWEEN 22W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE FROM 17N-
21N BETWEEN 15W-20W…AND FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 22W-28W. SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

…TROPICAL WAVES…
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N60W TO 19N57W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH RELATIVELY BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING
BETWEEN 55W-63W…WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-17N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 54W-59W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N75W TO 19N75W MOVING W AT 25 KT.
THE WAVE LIES WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR
30N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 75W-
78W.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N28W TO A 1013 MB LOW
NEAR 07N38W TO 08N45W. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE FRED…ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N
BETWEEN 40W-43W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SW TO OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION TO A BROAD BASE OVER
THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY NEAR 26N100W. THE TROUGHING IS
PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON. NEAREST TO THE MID-LEVEL 500 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO…MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF N OF 22N W OF 93W. FARTHER EAST…A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 27N83W.
THE SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS A WEAK 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N85W
WITH SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING N-NE TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION NEAR 30N83W…AND SW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR THE NW CORNER
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGHING…SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
82W-84W…AND S OF 23N BETWEEN 83W-87W…INCLUDING THE
APPROACHES TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OTHERWISE…GENERALLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-ATLC AND SE
CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA…
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION AND
MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT…SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING N OF 19N BETWEEN 82W-88W…INCLUDING FAR WESTERN
CUBA…AND THE FAR EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE…THE
OTHER MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IMPACTING THE BASIN IS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION NEAR
18N75W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 76W IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF JAMAICA AND ACROSS AN AREA SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IN
THE VICINITY OF 16N72W. FINALLY…THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE…CURRENTLY ALONG 59W…IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WAVE AS IT ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

…HISPANIOLA…
CURRENTLY…MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DUE LARGELY TO RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT AND
OVERALL STABILITY PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 59W WILL APPROACH AND INCREASE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N71W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 29N77W
THEN SW OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 30N BETWEEN 78W-80W. OTHERWISE…THE MAIN FEATURE
INFLUENCING THE SW NORTH ATLC IS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N69W. FARTHER EAST…THE CENTRAL
ATLC IS GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N45W…HOWEVER TO THE
NW A WEAK 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N56W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 29N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 52W-56W. FINALLY…AS MENTIONED
ABOVE…THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EASTERN ATLC IS HURRICANE FRED AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

METAREA2 / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 311522

WONT50 LFPW 311522
SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
WARNING NR 386, MONDAY 31 AUGUST 2015 AT 1520 UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS, MONDAY 31 AT 12 UTC.
HURRICANE FRED IS CENTERED 16.4N 23.7W AT 31/1500UTC, MOVING NW AT 10
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 HPA. POSITION BY 01/00
UTC: 17.3N 25.1W, WITH MAX WINDS 70 KT, 18.6N 26.9W BY 01/12 UTC, AND
19.6N 28.8W BY 02/00 UTC.
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N23W 07N31W 6N41W.
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE VERDE.
CONTINUING TO 02/00 UTC AT LEAST.
HURRICANE 12 (75 KT). GUSTS 90 KT.
HIGH OR VERY HIGH.

SOUTHWEST OF CAP TIMIRIS, NORTH OF SIERRA LEONE.
CONTINUING TO 31/18 UTC.
LOCALLY SOUTHERLY 8 OR 9.
HIGH.

BT
*

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA II

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South Africa: 2 Men swept off rocks rescued, seriously injured, at Plettenberg Bay – Published 170515 1913z (GMT/UTC)

At 14h18 on Sunday the 17th of May, NSRI Plettenberg bay duty crew were activated following reports from an ex NSRI crewman, Dr. Herman Nel, reporting that he and his family had come across a situation, while hiking on the Robberg Nature Reserve hiking trail, where two men had been swept off rocks at Robberg Nature reserve hiking trail. One man was missing and one man seriously injured. The injured man was with some hikers, believed to be from Canada, who had found him.
Dr. Nel began emergency treatment on the 39 year old man who was suffering multiple lacerations, severe bruising to his body, arms and legs, and suspected fractures to an right arm and a leg.
Dr. Nel was able to determine from the 39 year old that he and his 34 year old friend (both from Vanderbijlpark and on holiday in Plettenberg Bay) were taking pictures of the sea. The 39 year old man had walked up a section at Blaas Gat, Robberg Nature Reserve, when a wave swept him off the rocks into the sea.
The 34 year old man, seeing his friend swept off the rocks and into the water had jumped into the water to try to help him but was swept, in very rough sea conditions, into a gulley.
The 39 year old man, had managed to get out of the water onto rocks but having lost sight of his friend, and fearing that his friend had drowned, crawled over rocks towards the beach to try to find help when a group of hikers, believed to be Canadians, came across him and shortly after that Dr. Nel, his wife, his daughter and a friend of his daughter, came across the scene.
Dr. Nel and the daughters friend, Andre Barnard, went in search of the 34 year old man, and during that time they also went to a higher part of “The Island”, at Robberg Nature Reserve, to make a call to NSRI Plettenberg Bay to raise the alarm. At that stage it was reported as a suspected drowning in progress.
Dr. Nel and Andre Barnard then found the 34 year old man in amongst rocks in a gulley in the sea and being battered by swells in a rising sea tide and suffering multiple lacerations, bruising, a head injury and a suspected fractured spine.
Together they managed to move him to higher ground and out of danger.
Dr. Nel was also able to confirm to the responding crews that the missing man had now been found.
At that stage the first of NSRI Plettenberg Bay rescue crew who had responded by road were arriving on the scene followed by NSRI crew who had responded by sea aboard the sea rescue craft LEONARD SMITH and by paramedics from WC Government Health EMS and Med-Life ambulance services.
The 34 year old man was in an area that was threatened by the rising high tide and he was secured to a trauma board. Because the rising high tide and rough sea conditions threatened to engulf the area where he was being treated rescuers carried him to a higher point of the Nature Reserve.
The AMS/EMS Skymed helicopter that had been activated from Oudtshoorn was en route to the scene having picked up two NSRI Air Sea Rescue volunteers who had earlier been taking part in an Air Sea Rescue exercise at NSRI Wilderness.
On arrival on the scene the Skymed helicopter static line hoisted the 34 year old man, who was suffering a suspected fractured spine and multiple lacerations and bruising, secured into a specialised hoisting stretcher, to the Robberg Nature Reserve car park where paramedics continued with medical treatment.
The 39 year old man with the suspected fractured arm and leg as well as lacerations and bruising, was then also static line hoisted to the Robberg car park.
The 39 year old man was transported by ambulance to hospital in Plettenberg Bay in a serious but stable condition.
He has been stabilised and is being transferred to hospital in George.
The 34 year old man has been airlifted by the Skymed helicopter to hospital in George in a serious but stable condition and has been admitted to surgery. – NSRI
Picture by AMS pilot Stephan Rossouw 9VIA nsri0

Picture by AMS pilot Stephan Rossouw 9VIA nsri0

MASCARENES ISLANDS/MADAGASCAR: Tropical Cyclone HALIBA (15S, 11) 09/1200Z nr 21.8S 55.2E, moving ESE 8 Kts – Updated 090315 1640z (GMT/UTC)

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM (12) (RSMC La Reunion)

 TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (HALIBA) (JTWC)

MASCARENES ISLANDS SHOULD STILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM

 – (RSMC La Reunion)

si201516_5day 

si201516_sat_anim

ZCZC 549

ZCZC 549
WTIO30 FMEE 091222
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/12/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (HALIBA)
2.A POSITION 2015/03/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/03/10 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/03/10 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/03/11 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/03/11 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/03/12 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/03/12 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/03/13 12 UTC: 31.4 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2015/03/14 12 UTC: 35.1 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+ AND CI=3.0-.
HALIBA HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z AND PROBABLY REACHED ITS INTENSITY PEAK (MAX W
INDS AT ABOUT 45KT), TEMPORARILY SHOWING A RAGGED EYE AT 08Z .
AFTER THAT, COULD PATTERN HAD RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES A SEVERE IMPACT OF THE
WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-EASTWARDS WITHIN A WEST TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL HIGHS.
WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND EXPERIENCING BY THAT TIME SOME DEEP STRUCTURE CHANGES WITH A LARGER AND MORE ASYMMETRICAL WIND FIELDS SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM MAY LOOSE ITS PURE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESUME ITS SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITH AN ONGOING EXTRATROP PROCESS.
GIVEN THE ONGOING AND EXPECTED IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS, INHABITANT OF THIS AREA SHOULD STILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
NNNN

La Reunion

B_q3FKVU0AE3dbt.jpg large

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1615.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/16S_090530sams.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
090600Z — NEAR 21.3S 53.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 53.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 22.2S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 23.1S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 24.0S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 24.9S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 26.3S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 29.2S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 54.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDGET
SYSTEM WITH A SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND ON RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC HALIBA IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGE WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALLOWING TC 16S TO MODERATELY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS, PEAKING AT 55 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS, THE COMBINED EFFECT OF
INCREASING VWS AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z AND 100900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 091221
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2015 AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 09/03/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (HALIBA) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXIST WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/03/10 AT 00 UTC:
22.6 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2015/03/10 AT 12 UTC:
23.5 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

Further warnings here:

METAREA VII

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Mauritius/La Reunion: Tropical Storm CHEDZA 06S 181200Z: 22.9 S / 52.3 E, moving SE 8 at knots(RSMC La Réunion) – Updated 180115 1520z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL STORM CHEDZA 06

….. HEAVY RAIN OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS. – RSMC LA REUNION 2015/01/18 AT 1200 UTC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

chedza_sat

RSMC LA REUNION

chedza trajectoire

chedza sat anim

Bulletin Réunion
JOURNEE DU DIMANCHE 18

La Tempête tropicale CHEDZA était située à 16h à 360km a l Ouest-Sud-ouest des côtes réunionnaises et se déplace vers le sud-est à 15km/h.

Vigilance houle cyclonique d’ouest de 2.5m à 3 m sur les cotes Ouest et Sud en cours.

Flux de Nord-Nord-Ouest humide.
NUIT DU DIMANCHE 18 AU LUNDI 19
Les précipitions deviennent éparses sur l Est en début de nuit pour devenir plus fréquentes dans le Nord de l’île approximativement de St Leu à St Benoit en passant par le chef lieu en seconde partie de nuit .

Le vent de secteur Nord reste soutenu plus particulièrement sur les façades Nord-Ouest et Est ( 60 à 70km/h) et dans les hauts de la Réunion avec des rafales pouvant atteindre les 80 à 90 Km/h
LUNDI 19
Pris dans le flux de Nord-Nord-Ouest des averses sont possibles en début de journée sur la façade Ouest et Nord, ailleurs comme dans le sud sauvage le ciel est plus clément avec de belles éclaircies.

Au fil des heures l’instabilité se réactive et les nuages se développent dans l’intérieur.

Ces deniers débordent ensuite sur le sud sauvage où des averses sont alors attendues.

Le vent reste soutenue il souffle principalement sur les côtes Ouest et Est avec des rafales de 70 à 80km/h. Sur les hauteurs exposées, les rafales sont proches de 80 km/h.

La mer est agitée à forte au vent, une vigilance houle cyclonique d’Ouest est en cours de Champs-Borne à la Pointe de la Table en passant par St Leu, houle comprise entre 2. et 2.5 mètres soit 5 m pour les hauteurs maximales . Une houle de Sud-Est de 2.5 à 3 est egalement de mise sur les cotes Est et Sud .
MARDI 20
Poussées par un vent d’Ouest, quelques averses sont possibles en début de journée sur la façade Ouest, ailleurs c’est globalement du soleil. Au fil des heures, les nuages se développent dans

l’intérieure de l’ile et des débordement nuageux concernent le sud de la Réunion ou quelques averses peuvent se produire

Vent d ouest modéré avec des rafales sur les cote Sud-Ouest.

houle de Sud Ouest de 2 a 2.5M de la Pointe de Aigrette à la Pointe de la Table.
MERCREDI 21
Belle journée, la masse d’air s’assèche le soleil l’emporte. les développement nuageux de l apres-midi restent limites.

vent de Sud-Ouest faible à modéré le matin, tournant Sud en fin de journée.

Houle d ouest sud ouest de 2 à 2.5m

Reunion Bulletin
DAY SUNDAY 18

Tropical Storm CHEDZA was located at 16h to al 360km west-south-west coast of Reunion and moves southeast at 15km / h.

Vigilance westerly cyclonic swell from 2.5m to 3m on South West Coasts and in progress.

RSS wet North-West.

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY 18 19

The rush become scattered over the East early night in order to become more common in the north of the island approximately St Leu in St Benoit through the main town in the second part of the night.

North wind sector remains particularly strong on Northwest and east facades (60 to 70km / h) and the heights of the Meeting with gusts to 80 to 90 km / h

Monday 19

Caught in the flow of North-West showers are possible early in the day on the west facade and north as elsewhere in the wild south the sky is partly cloudy skies with.

As the hours instability reactivates and clouds develop in the interior.

These funds then spill over into the wild south, where rainfall is then expected.

The wind remains strong it blows mainly on the west and east coast with gusts of 70 to 80 km / h. On the exposed heights, the bursts are near 80 km / h.

The sea is rough with strong wind, vigilance cyclone swell West is being Champs Terminal Point Table via St Leu, swell between 2 and 2.5 m or 5 m for the maximum heights . A Southeast swell from 2.5 to 3 is also placing on the east and south coasts.

Tuesday 20

Driven by a west wind, some rain showers are possible early in the day on the west facade, it is also generally the sun. The hours, the clouds develop in

interior of the island and cloudy infinity concern southern Meeting or a few showers may occur

West of moderate wind with gusts on the South West Coast.

Southwest swell 2 to 2.5M of Pointe Heron Pointe de la Table.

Wednesday 21

Beautiful day, the mass of air dries the sun wins. development of cloudy after noon are limits.

Southwest winds weak to moderate in the morning, turning south in the afternoon.

Houle southwest of West 2 to 2.5m

Bulletin du 18 JANVIER à 16H45 locales:
Il n’y a pas d’alerte en cours à La Réunion, et aucune menace cyclonique n’est envisagée pour les
prochaines 72 heures.
**************************************************
Nature des systèmes dépressionnaires tropicaux présents sur le Sud-Ouest de l’Océan Indien.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE EX-BANSI.
Pression estimée au centre: 960 HPA.
Position le 18 janvier à 16 heures locales: 25.8 Sud / 78.3 Est.
(vingt cinq degres huit sud et soixante dix-huit degres trois est).
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 2340 km au secteur: EST-SUD-EST.
Déplacement: EST-SUD-EST, à 46 km/h.
Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 19/01 à 16h locales, par 33.0 Sud / 90.9 Est.
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 20/01 à 16h locales, par 38.1 Sud / 104.1 Est.
————————————————-
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CHEDZA.
Pression estimée au centre: 982 HPA.
Position le 18 janvier à 16 heures locales: 22.9 Sud / 52.3 Est.
(vingt deux degres neuf sud et cinquante deux degres trois est).
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 360 km au secteur: OUEST-SUD-OUEST.
Déplacement: SUD-EST, à 15 km/h.
Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 19/01 à 16h locales, par 25.3 Sud / 53.1 Est.
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,
Centre positionné le 20/01 à 16h locales, par 27.8 Sud / 54.6 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 21/01 à 16h locales, par 30.6 Sud / 57.9 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 22/01 à 16h locales, par 35.4 Sud / 63.1 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 23/01 à 16h locales, par 45.5 Sud / 78.5 Est.
————————————————-
Attention: Les prévisions de trajectoire et d’intensité précédentes sont à considérer avec la plus
grande prudence compte tenu de leur incertitude. Elles ne concernent que la position du centre du
phénomène, sans considération sur son extension.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Prochain bulletin vers 23h local

Bulletin January 18 at 4:45 p.m. local:
There is no current alert Reunion, and no hurricane threat is considered for
next 72 hours.
**************************************************
Nature of tropical storm systems present on the southwestern Indian Ocean.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-BANSI.
Estimated central pressure 960 HPA.
Position on 18 January at 16 am local time 25.8 South / 78.3 East.
(twenty five eight degrees south and seventy-eight degrees is three).
Distance from Reunion coast: 2340 km to the sector: EAST SOUTHEAST.
Displacement: EAST SOUTHEAST, 46 km / h.
Here are the intensities and positions provided this low pressure system over the next few days:
EXTRATROPICAL,
Center positioned 19/01 at 16h local by 33.0 South / 90.9 East.
EXTRATROPICAL,
Center positioned 20/01 at 16h local by 38.1 South / 104.1 East.
————————————————-
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CHEDZA.
Estimated central pressure 982 HPA.
Position on 18 January at 16 am local time: 22.9 South / 52.3 East.
(twenty two nine degrees fifty-two degrees south and three east).
Distance from Reunion coast 360 km sector: WEST-SOUTHWEST.
Displacement: SOUTHEAST 15 km / h.
Here are the intensities and positions provided this low pressure system over the next few days:
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM,
Center positioned 19/01 at 16h local by 25.3 South / 53.1 East.
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,
Center positioned 20/01 at 16h local by 27.8 South / 54.6 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned 21/01 at 16h local by 30.6 South / 57.9 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned 22/01 at 16h local by 35.4 South / 63.1 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Centre positioned on 23/01 at 16h local by 45.5 South / 78.5 East.
————————————————-
Warning: The forecast path and previous intensity should be treated with the most
caution because of their uncertainty. They are for the center position
phenomenon, regardless of its extension.
This newsletter is now complete.
Next newsletter to 23h local

ZCZC 453
WTIO30 FMEE 181306

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/6/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (CHEDZA)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9 S / 52.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 350 SW: 190 NW: 170
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/19 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/01/19 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/01/20 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/01/20 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 54.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/01/21 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/01/21 12 UTC: 30.6 S / 57.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/22 12 UTC: 35.4 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/01/23 12 UTC: 45.5 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CURRENT PATTERN LOOKS UNCONVENTIONAL AND MENTIONED INTENSITY IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK TECHNIQ
UE THAT IS NOT ADAPTED ANY-MORE FOR THIS KIND OF SYSTEM.
DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE IN THE CONVERGENCE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIG
H PRESSURES.
IN THE WAKE OF CHEZA, IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, OUTER PERIPHERAL BANDS EXIST AND OCCUR LOCALLY H
EAVY RAIN OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS.
CHEDZA KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARDS TOWARDS A TRANSIENT MID
-LEVEL TROUGH.
ON THIS PATH, FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY WINDSHEAR IS LOW TO MODER
ATE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD ALLOW SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION.
FROM TUESDAY, THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS LIKELY TO LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, THE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE AND THE SYSTEM COULD
BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

No warning

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA7 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 181240

WTIO22 FMEE 181240
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2015
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/01/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-BANSI) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8 S / 78.3 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 25 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO
400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 180 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 430 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 250
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 620 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 710 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/01/19 AT 00 UTC:
29.1 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2015/01/19 AT 12 UTC:
33.0 S / 90.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

There are other warnings at

METAREA VII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Madagascar/ Mozambique: Tropical Cyclone (21S) HELLEN 010300Z nr 17.2S 46.0E, moving SSE at 5 knots (JTWC) Overland Depression (RSMC La Reunion) – Updated 010414 0718z

Tropical Cyclone 21S Hellen

OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14 (EX-HELLEN) RESIDUAL ACTIVE CONVECTION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALMOST TOTALLY VANISHED OVER MADAGASCAR. (RSMC La Reunion)

ZCZC 073
WTIO30 FMEE 010013
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/14/20132014
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14 (EX-HELLEN)
2.A POSITION 2014/04/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 45.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/04/01 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
24H: 2014/04/02 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 43.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2014/04/02 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2014/04/03 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 41.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2014/04/03 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2014/04/04 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/04/05 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 36.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE RESIDUAL ACTIVE CONVECTION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALMOST TOTALLY VANISHED OVER MADAGASCAR. THE RESI
DUAL LLCC, OVERLAND, IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.
ACCORDING TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, MOST OF THE NWP MODELS FORECAST A MOVEMENT WEST TO SOUTH
WESTWARD FOR THE RESIDUAL LLCC WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EAST TO N
ORTH-EASTERLY FLOW GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RE-BUILDING SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE.
NONE OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS, INCLUDING THE MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE PREVISION, FORECASTS A RE-
INTENSIFICATION WHEN THE LOW WILL COME BACK OVER SEA AND CROSS THE MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL.
LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE RSMC LA REUNION UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.
NNNN

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 1 Apr, 2014 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm HELLEN (21S) currently located near 17.0 S 46.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soalala (16.1 S, 45.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2114.gif

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/21S_312330sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HELLEN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HELLEN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
010000Z — NEAR 17.0S 46.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 46.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 17.7S 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 46.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HELLEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) REVEALS THAT TC HELLEN HAS RAPIDLY ERODED AS
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME RAGGED AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS SHEARED AWAY AND SHALLOWED. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER MADAGASCAR FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AND WILL DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR, AND LAND INTERACTION CONTINUE
TO HAMPER THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TRACKING TC 21S BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH A CHANCE OF
REGENERATION WHILE MOVING TOWARDS THE AFRICAN LANDMASS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
NNNN

MARITIME

METAREA7 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING /

ZCZC 343
WTIO24 FMEE 311832 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/03/2014
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 31/03/2014 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: INLAND 14 (EX-HELLEN) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 45.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS UP TO 25 NM FROM
THE CENTRE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/04/01 AT 06 UTC:
16.5 S / 44.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, INLAND
24H, VALID 2014/04/01 AT 18 UTC:
17.0 S / 43.7 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.=
NNNN

 

Specialist weather for mariners: PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/indian/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Uganda: President Yoweri Museveni signs anti-gay bill that toughens strict legislation against homosexuals – 240214 1325z

A Kenyan gay man wears a mask to preserve his anonymity as he protests against anti-gay moves in Uganda outside the Uganda High Commission in Nairobi, Kenya on 10 February The new law makes it a crime not to report gay people and bans the promotion of homosexuality

“Uganda’s president has signed into law a bill toughening penalties for gay people and criminalising those who do not report them.

A government spokesman said President Yoweri Museveni wanted to assert Uganda’s “independence in the face of Western pressure”.

US President Barack Obama has cautioned the bill would be a backward step.

Mr Museveni had previously agreed to put the bill on hold pending US scientific advice.

Homosexual acts are already illegal in Uganda.

In December a gay rights campaigner spoke of her fears about the legislation

The new law punishes first-time offenders with 14 years in jail, and allows life imprisonment as the penalty for acts of “aggravated homosexuality”.

Homosexuality is just bad behaviour, that should not be allowed in our society – MP David Bahati

It also makes it a crime not to report gay people – in effect making it impossible to live as openly gay.

It criminalises the “promotion” and even the mere “recognition” of homosexual relations “through or with the support of any government entity in Uganda or any other non-governmental organisation inside or outside the country”.

Lesbians are covered by the bill for the first time.

Gay activists say they will challenge the new laws in court.

The bill originally proposed the death penalty for some homosexual acts, but that was later removed amid international criticism.

‘Very scared’

According to the Associated Press news agency, government officials clapped after Mr Museveni signed the bill at a press conference at State House.

Yoweri Musveni - 30 January 2014 President Museveni had been apprehensive about signing the bill, but he could not convince his party otherwise

The BBC’s Catherine Byaruhanga in Uganda says it is rare for the president to assent to bills so publicly.

But the anti-gay bill has become so controversial that the media were invited to witness its signing, she says.

I didn’t even go to work today [Monday]. I’m locked up in the house

Ugandan gay rights activist

Earlier government spokesman spokesman Ofwono Opondo told Reuters news agency Mr Museveni wanted “to demonstrate Uganda’s independence in the face of Western pressure and provocation”.

The sponsor of the bill, MP David Bahati, insisted homosexuality was a “behaviour that can be learned and can be unlearned”.

“Homosexuality is just bad behaviour, that should not be allowed in our society,” he told the BBC’s Newsday programme.

But a gay rights activist in Uganda told the programme that he was “very scared” about the new bill.

“I didn’t even go to work today [Monday]. I’m locked up in the house.

“And I don’t know what’s going to happen now. I’m talking to all my activists on the phone. And it’s the same, they are all locked up in their houses. They can’t move out. They are watching their back to see what happens.”

Our correspondent says although Mr Museveni had been apprehensive about signing the bill, he could not convince his party, religious groups and many of his citizens that it was not needed.

The signing of the bill is an apparent U-turn from a recent pledge to hold off, pending advice from the US.

In a statement, Mr Museveni had said: “I… encourage the US government to help us by working with our scientists to study whether, indeed, there are people who are born homosexual.

“When that is proved, we can review this legislation.”

President Obama described it as “more than an affront, and a danger to, Uganda’s gay community. It will be a step backwards for all Ugandans.”

He warned it could “complicate” Washington’s relations with Uganda, which receives a reported $400m (Ł240m) in annual aid from the US.

In South Africa, former archbishop Desmond Tutu said he was disheartened by President Museveni’s apparent change of stance.” – BBC News

Credit all images: BBC News

Map showing gay rights in Africa

 

Related Stories

——————————————–

Related:

https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/?s=Uganda&submit=Search

Mozambique: Low Pressure Area 91S 281400Z 15.4S 41.6E, moving WSW at 10 Knots. High chance of significant Tropical Cyclone within 24hrs (JTWC) – 280114 1945z

Invest 91S

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 (RSMC LA REUNION)

(Image: wunderground.com) South Indian Ocean IR (Click image for source)

ZCZC 487
WTIO30 FMEE 281331 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/9/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9
2.A POSITION 2014/01/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 41.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/29 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 40.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/01/29 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2014/01/30 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2014/01/30 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 37.6 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
60H: 2014/01/31 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 36.0 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, LOW
72H: 2014/01/31 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 34.9 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.0
——————————————————-
CORRECTIVE ISSUED IN RELATIONSHIP WITH AN ERROR IN THE DVORAK TREND CODING – SECTION 3.A
——————————————————-
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS WEAKEN ALOFT WITHIN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND DEEP CONVECT
IVE ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTRE SINCE 0700Z.
0922Z AMRS2 ET 1010Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE.
DUE TO A LACK OF POLEWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW, THIS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS MAINLY SUSTAINED EQUATOR
WARD BY THE MONSOON FLOW.
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A SOUTH-WESTWARDS EXPECTED TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 60 HOURS LEAD TIME, PROXIMIT
Y OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE SHOULD LIMIT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNIN
G.
WEDNESDAY LATE, SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN.
ANY OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS DEEPEN THIS LOW SIGNIFICANTLY AT SHORT OR MEDIUM RANGE AND THE ENS
EMBLE FORECAST OF ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANY-MORE PROBABILITY FOR A GENESIS OF A TROPICAL STORM.
CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.
NNNN

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh9114.gif

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTXS21 PGTW 281430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280251Z JAN 14//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 280300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 42.4E TO 19.2S 38.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 281400Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 41.6E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S
44.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 41.6E, APPROXIMATELY 810 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING, SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
A 281238Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC
IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
291430Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 153.4E.//
NNNN

Other Reports

NASA.gov91S (Southern Indian Ocean)
Jan. 28, 2014
System 91S
(NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over the Mozambique Channel on January 28 at 10:35 UTC/5:35 a.m. EST and saw some of the thunderstorms had high cloud tops, where temperatures exceeded -63F/-52C (purple).
Image Credit: NASA JPL, Ed Olsen)

NASA Spots Developing Tropical System Affecting Mozambique’s Nampala ProvinceNASA’s Aqua satellite captured infrared data on a developing area of tropical low pressure known as System 91S that was brushing the Nampala Province of Mozambique on January 28.

Nampula is a province in northern Mozambique and its eastern coast runs along the Mozambique Channel of the Southern Indian Ocean. When NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over the Mozambique Channel on January 28 at 10:35 UTC/5:35 a.m. EST the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder instrument known as AIRS captured infrared data on the clouds associated with System 91S.

AIRS showed some of the thunderstorms surrounding the low-level center of circulation had high cloud tops, where temperatures exceeded -63F/-52C, a threshold that indicates strong storms and potentially heavy rainmakers. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted that animated multi-spectral satellite imagery showed that the low-level center was consolidating and that there were bands of thunderstorms wrapping into the center – a sign of strengthening.

System 91S was centered near 15.4 south and 41.6 east, about 810 nautical miles northeast of Maputo, Mozambique. Maximum sustained winds are near the threshold for depression status, currently as high as 30 knots. The low is over warm enough waters to support further development.

At 11 a.m. EST on January 28, Nacala, Mozambique, located on coastal Nampula, was reporting drizzle from the fringes of System 91S with thunderstorms expected at night and on January 29.

Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center give System 91S a high chance for becoming a tropical depression in the next day as it tracks to the southwest in the Mozambique Channel.

Text credit:ツ Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

MARITIME

ZCZC 093
WTIO24 FMEE 281226
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2014
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/01/2014 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 41.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,
EXTENDING UP TO 320 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30
KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/01/29 AT 00 UTC:
16.9 S / 40.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2014/01/29 AT 12 UTC:
18.2 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.=
NNNN

Trial nearly over for opponent of Zambian anti-gay law

76 CRIMES

AIDS activist Paul Kasonkomona is scheduled to learn on Feb. 20 whether a judge will dismiss charges that were brought against him after he appeared on Zambian TV last April and said that the country should repeal its law against same-sex activity because the law hampers the fight against AIDS.

He was arrested immediately after that appearance on local Muvi TV, and was faced with the charge that his appeal for reform was a form of “soliciting for immoral purposes in a public place.”

Kasonkomona and other activists say that anti-gay laws lead to increased levels of HIV and AIDS by making LGBT people fearful of acknowledging their sexual orientation, even to a doctor.

Kasonkomona was arrested April 7 and released on bail on April 11.  Court proceedings against him have in in process since May. On Feb. 20, a judge in Lusaka Magistrates Court is scheduled to make a…

View original post 184 more words

Mozambique/ Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone 09S DELIWE 161500Z near 20.6S 43.2E, moving SSW at 10 knots (JTWC) – 160114 1848z

Tropical Cyclone 09S (Nine)

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  7 (RSMC La Reunion)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

ZCZC 326
WTIO30 FMEE 161300
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/7/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  7
2.A POSITION 2014/01/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 43.6 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE    DECIMAL
SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/17 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/01/17 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/01/18 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2014/01/18 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 37.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2014/01/19 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 36.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2014/01/19 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 36.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/01/20 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 35.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
120H: 2014/01/21 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 34.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
THE SYSTEM MOVED BACK OVERSEAS THIS MORNING JUST BEFORE 00Z AS IT HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS LOCATED TO THE EAST AND TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE OVERALL ORGANISATION OF THE CORE OF THIS RATHER SMALL
SIZE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED ALONG THE DAY WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
MW PRESENTATION (CF TRMM PASS AT 0812Z). THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES (GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PGTW AND
KNES ESTIMATES OF 1130Z) … WITH LACK OF OTHER OBJECTIVE EVIDENCES
TO PRECISE THIS ASSESSMENT.
UP TO SATURDAY, ALL THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST WITH A SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK
AND THEN A MORE WESTWARDS TRACK FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA. BEYOND, THERE IS
POOR AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCES AND THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST. THE CURRENT TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODELS MEAN
UP TO SATURDAY AND THEN CLOSE TO THE MEAN OF THE 3 LATEST OUTPUTS OF
ECMWF.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A ONLY A MODERATE
NORTHERLY CONSTRAINT AS A NEGATIVE FACTOR THAT SHOULD BE PARTLY
OFFSET BY THE MERIDIAN TRACK. BEYOND, THE CHANGE IN THE HEADING AND A
LOWER FORWARD MOTION SHOULD ENHANCE THE EFFECT OF THE SHEAR AND
THEREFORE SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. ON THE CURRENT SCENARIO, THE
SHEAR IS EVEN EXPECTED TO STRENGHEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT IS WORTH TO NOTE THAT EVEN WITH THE ALTERNATE SCENARII,
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGHENING SUGGESTED AT LONG RANGE AS THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE CLOSE OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS.=
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0914.gif

WTXS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161451Z JAN 14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001   
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
161200Z — NEAR 20.2S 43.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 43.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 21.9S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 23.7S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 24.6S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 24.6S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 23.2S 38.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 20.7S 37.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 18.9S 36.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 43.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 161224Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IMPROVED
BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THIS WELL MARKED LLCC
SEEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH (35 KNOTS)
BASED UPON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, ONE CHANNEL
NORTHWESTWARD AND ANOTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS STR WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT DRIVES THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST, WHICH WILL INITIALLY SLOW THE SYSTEM AS IT SWITCHES STEERING
INFLUENCES. AFTER TAU 48, THIS WESTERN STR WILL DRIVE TC 09S TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COAST
OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER WHICH, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR GENERAL INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS. AFTER THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST, INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
AS IT APPROACHES MOZAMBIQUE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, THERE IS
SOME SLIGHT VARIANCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS
THE SYSTEM SWITCHES STEERING INFLUENCES. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 152000Z JAN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 152000).//
NNNN

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 16 Jan, 2014 12:00 GMT

 

Tropical Storm NINE (09S) currently located near 20.2 S 43.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 65% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)
probability for TS is 55% currently
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

(Image: TSR) Storm Tracker Map (Click image for source)

MARITIME

ZCZC 144
WTIO24 FMEE 161226
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2014
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 16/01/2014 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7  1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 43.6 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS REACHING LOCALLY
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND 30 KT WITH ROUGH SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTER
AND MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/01/17 AT 00 UTC:
22.1 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2014/01/17 AT 12 UTC:
24.2 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=
NNNN

12 men dramatically rescued from their fishing trawler that ran aground on ‘Nelson Mandela’s Robben Island’ rocks in storm – 130813 1050z

NSRI: “At 00h04 on Tuesday the13th of August NSRI Table Bay, Melkbosstrand and Bakoven duty crews were activated by the Transnet National Ports Authority following a mayday distress call from the 19.6 meter Hout Bay fishing trawler CLAREMONT with 12 crew onboard reporting to be running aground on the South Western side of Robben Island.

Pat van Eyssen, NSRI Table Bay station commander, said: It appears that the vessel lost motor power and they were drifting ashore in storm seas with 5 to 6 meter breaking swells.

Our Table Bay, Melkbosstrand and Bakoven volunteers launched our sea rescue boats SPIRIT OF VODACOM, ROTARY ENDEAVOR, SPIRIT OF THE VINES and ROTARIAN SCHIPPER and responded to Robben Island.

NSRI Hout Bay and the WC Government Health EMS were placed on high alert.

Telkom Maritime Radio Services provided VHF radio communications for the rescue operation.

NSRI rescue vehicles responded to Signal Hill to assist with communications and a WC Government Health EMS JOC (Joint Operations Command) vehicle was dispatched to assist on Signal Hill.

While responding to the scene the skipper and owner, Marcelino da Silva, 49, from Table View, confirmed that his 11 crew members, all from Hout Bay, had moved to the back of the vessel, only 4 had time to retrieve and don their life-jackets and he reported that he remained in the wheel house while their vessel had waves breaking over the vessel and that they were already in amongst the rocks and the vessel was being battered against rocks and was breaking up.

On arrival on-scene efforts to get the crew off from the sea side, with our NSRI rigid inflatable rescue craft darting in between wave sets under the illumination of white illuminating flares proved fruitless as waves of between 5 to 6 meter sets rolled in forcing our rigid inflatable rescue craft to abandon the efforts each time to avoid being capsized or rammed into rocks.

By this stage it was clear that the crew aboard the casualty vessel were understandably panicking and showing a willingness to take their chances if they abandoned their ship but NSRI controllers, using calm and reassuring voice tones, consoled them over the VHF radios to stay on the relative, although precarious, safety of their ship particularly since only 4 crew members were wearing life-jackets. They were still at that stage a few hundred meters off-shore and their vessel gradually being swept between and over rocks and breaking up as waves crashed over her as she was forced closer to the island.

The Red Cross AMS Skymed 1 helicopter was placed on alert by Metro Control but they could only fly at first light and MRCC (Maritime rescue Coordination Centre) activated the SA Air Force 22 Squadron Oryx helicopters with NSRI station 29 Helicopter rescue unit but they would only become airborne in 2 hours.

The situation intensified when it became clear that the vessel was hard aground on rocks and listing to a 40 degree angle and casualty crew had no further choice and they began to abandon ship under their Captains instruction.

NSRI rescue crews raced into Murray Bay Harbour and summoned the Robben Island Security who mustered their staff, and with an ambulance (that is kept on the island), a mini bus and two bakkies the NSRI crews were driven by the Robben Island security to the side of the island where the casualty crew were abandoning their ship.

The Transnet National Ports Authority activated a Pilot Boat to transport additional NSRI rescue crew, Metro rescue paramedics and rescue and medical equipment, including lighting, to the island from the V&A Waterfront.

WC Government Health EMS ambulances and response paramedics were activated to respond to NSRI Table Bay rescue base to stand-by.

At first only one of the casualty crew managed to get to shore and NSRI rescue swimmers waded, swam and jumped from rock to rock, in between crashing waves to reach the ship where four casualty crew members were found perched on a rock below their listing vessel. They were helped ashore (NSRI rescue swimmers swam them, and helped them over rocks to reach the shore) while wave sets continued to crash over the vessel and over the rescue effort.

In relays all 11 casualty crew were helped ashore by the 8 NSRI rescue swimmers who had gone around to the land side. Only the skipper remained at his wheel house and he reported to require assistance as he was exhausted and he had succumbed to hypothermia. NSRI rescue swimmers were able to retrieve him from the casualty vessel and he too was brought to shore.

By 04h17 all 12 crew members of CLAREMONT were accounted for and ashore on Robben Island. They were transported by Robben Island vehicles to Robben Islands Murray Bay harbour and treatment for hypothermia and shock was commenced.

They were taken aboard SPIRIT OF VODACOM and transported to our sea rescue base at the V&A Waterfront. All 12 men were handed into the care of the Metro ambulance paramedics. They have been transported to Groote Schuur and New Somerset hospitals. All are in stable conditions, for treatment for hypothermia, and two also for treatment for back injuries.

All are men aged between 18 and 52.

The rescue operation was completed at 05h17 today.

SAMSA (South African Maritime Safety Authority) will investigate any possible environmental impact and any chances of a salvage of the vessel which remains hard aground on Robben Island.

(Credit: All pictures, except Robben Island view, from NSRI)

 

The skipper ( left) and crew from the fishing boat Claremont on the Rescue Boat Spirit of Vodacom after their ordeal. 12 Crew were rescued by NSRI volunters off the Hout Bay fishing boat Claremont which went aground on Robben Island on Monday night 12 August 2013. Picture Andrew Ingram / NSRI12 Crew were rescued by NSRI volunters off the Hout Bay fishing boat Claremont which went aground on Robben Island on Monday night 12 August 2013. Pictu

The skipper ( left) and crew from the fishing boat Claremont on the Rescue Boat Spirit of Vodacom after their ordeal. Picture pat Van Eyssen / NSRI.

The NSRI boat Spirit of Vodacom enters Table Bay harbour after the rescue.

The NSRI boat Spirit of Vodacom enters Table Bay harbour after the rescue.

The Sea Rescue boats Rotarian Schipper and Spirit of the Vines enter Table Bay after the rescue.

The Sea Rescue boats Rotarian Schipper and Spirit of the Vines enter Table Bay after the rescue.

Crew from the fishing boat Claremont come ashore after their ordeal.

Crew from the fishing boat Claremont come ashore after their ordeal. Picture Andrew Ingram / NSRI.

 

The skipper of the fishing boat Claremont comes ashore at the Table Bay rescue base.

The skipper of the fishing boat Claremont comes ashore at the Table Bay rescue base. Picture Andrew Ingram / NSRI.

Kobus Meyer, Coxswain of Spirit of the vines shows the damage to his rescue boat during the rescue. 12 Crew were rescued by NSRI volunters off the Hout Bay fishing boat Claremont which went aground on Robben Island on Monday night 12 August 2013. Picture Andrew Ingram / NSRI

Kobus Meyer, Coxswain of Spirit of the Vines, shows the damage to his rescue boat during the rescue. Picture Andrew Ingram / NSRI

NSRI volunteer Kim Germishuys hugs Coxswain Kobus Meyer after the dramatic rescue. 12 Crew were rescued by NSRI volunters off the Hout Bay fishing boat Claremont which went aground on Robben Island on Monday night 12 August 2013. Picture Andrew Ingram / NSRI

NSRI volunteer Kim Germishuys hugs Coxswain Kobus Meyer after the dramatic rescue. Picture Andrew Ingram / NSRI

Robben Island as viewed from Table Moutain / South Africa, Cape Town Feb-2005. (Photo: Stephantom/ wikipedia.org) Click photo for more on Robben Island

South Africa: Crew rescued from grounded bulk carrier off Walker Pt, Buffels Bay – 080813 1320z

Crew evacuated from bulk carrier

 

 

All 19 crew members were safely ashore after being rescued off the ship KIANI SATU. They were airlifted off the ship by a Titan helicopters Sikorski 76 helicopter. Picture NSRI.

All 19 crew members were safely ashore after being rescued off the ship KIANI SATU. They were airlifted off the ship by a Titan helicopters Sikorski 76 helicopter. Picture Bianca Bezuidenhout.

 

UPDATE 3:

 

At 10h02 all 19 crew members were safely ashore after being rescued off the ship KIANI SATU. They were airlifted off the ship by a Titan helicopters Sikorski 76 helicopter in relays.

 

Graeme Harding, NSRI Knysna station commander, said: The rescue helicopter hoisted NSRI helicopter rescue swimmers onto the ships deck where they instructed crew on the procedure to be hoisted into the helicopter by winch hoist using under arm harnesses.

 

Once they were safely airlifted to the beach, because of the terrain, they were then ferried by our NSRI sea rescue vehicles to a parking area in the Goukamma Nature Reserve where the Nature Conservation office was taken over as a rescue operations control point.

 

WC Government Health EMS, ER24 ambulance services, the SA Police Services and Police Sea Borderline are also in attendance.

 

The crew members, Ukranian and Filipino nationals, are handed into the care of Police Sea Borderline and they will be transported to Mossel Bay for visa control processing and accommodated.

 

Only minor injuries were sustained to two crew members of the ship, a laceration to a hand and one with a minor ankle injury, but they do not require to go to hospital and were treated on-scene by paramedics. None of the remaining crew of the casualty vessel were injured and all 19 crew are accounted for and safe.

 

The ship had washed side on to the shore during the early morning and came to rest hard aground after her anchor dragged and the tug boat was not able to hold her off against rough sea swells of 5 meters and strong gusting to 45 knot onshore winds.. The decision was taken by the ships Captain to abandon the ship and the safest method was to deploy the helicopter and hoist the crew off the ship while our NSRI rescue boats stood by to assist if necessary.

 

SAMSA officials remain on-scene and the bulk carrier,fully laden with rice, will be assessed for salvage and efforts to prevent an environmental risks.

 

NSRI Knysna and NSRI Wildreness have now stood down and are returning to base and NSRI Mossel Bay have been taken off high alert as no further rescue assistance is required.

 

NSRI Commend the efforts of NSRI Knysna and NSRI Wilderness crew and the Titan helicopter for the efforts of saving the crew of KIANI SATU today.

 

All 19 crew members were safely ashore after being rescued off the ship KIANI SATU. They were airlifted off the ship by a Titan helicopters Sikorski 76 helicopter. Picture NSRI.

All 19 crew members were safely ashore after being rescued off the ship KIANI SATU. They were airlifted off the ship by a Titan helicopters Sikorski 76 helicopter. Picture Bianca Bezuidenhout/NSRI.

 

 

 

UPDATE 2 :

 

All 19 crew members of the 165 meter rice bulk carrier container ship KIANI SATU are being evacuated off the casualty ship in relays by NSRI Knysna and NSRI Wilderness sea rescue boats.

 

Once safely ashore the crew will be processed and handed into the care of Police and Tourism officials. No injuries have been sustained.

 

The first 9 crew members were brought safely ashore at 09h34.

 

Environmental risks are being assessed by SAMSA (South African Maritime Safety Authority) and efforts will be made to salvage the ship.

 

All 19 crew members were safely ashore after being rescued off the ship KIANI SATU. They were airlifted off the ship by a Titan helicopters Sikorski 76 helicopter. Picture Bianca Bezuidenhout, Wilderness NSRI crew.

All 19 crew members were safely ashore after being rescued off the ship KIANI SATU. They were airlifted off the ship by a Titan helicopters Sikorski 76 helicopter. Picture Bianca Bezuidenhout, Wilderness NSRI crew.

 

ORIGINAL REPORT:

 

WALKER POINT, BUFFELS BAY Thursday, 08th August, 2013. Ship at risk:

 

At 03h39 on Thursday the 8th of August NSRI Knysna volunteer sea rescue duty crew were activated by the Transnet National Ports Authority following reports of theKIANI SATU, a 165 meter rice bulk carrier container ship, at risk of running aground at Walker Bay, between Knysna and Sedgefield with 19 crew members aboard who are believed to be Filipino and Ukranian nationals.

 

Our Knysna volunteers responded towing our sea rescue craft JAYTEE III and SPIRIT OF KYC and NSRI Wilderness volunteer sea rescue duty crew were also activated and they have towed their sea rescue craft SPIRIT OF ROTARY 100 and SERENDIPITY and our NSRI rescue crews are standing-by at Walker Point ready to launch to rescue the 19 crew if that becomes necessary. The Red Cross AMS Skymed 2 helicopter at George Airport is also on high alert accompanied by NSRI helicopter rescue swimmers to respond if it becomes necessary.

 

According to SAMSA (South African Maritime Safety Authority) the salvage vessel SMIT AMANDLA was dispatched from Cape Town in the early hours of this morning and is expected to reach the scene at nightfall today.

 

NSRI are poised on the shore ready to spring into action if it becomes necessary.

 

The ship, sailing from Cape Town, to Gabon, appears to have run into motor mechanical problems yesterday. A tug boat, the Fairmont Glazier, were dispatched to assist and is onscene. In 5 meter swells and gusting to 45 knot onshore Westerly winds the casualty vessel KIANI SATU has dragged anchor and they are now lying about half a nautical mile off-shore and her anchor is currently holding.

 

Fog has descended further hampering the stand-by rescue operation. There are no direct access points for media on the scene and media are respectfully requested to hold back and not approach as the coastline in the area is dangerous and the ship cannot be viewed from shore.

 

The Captain is not willing to have his crew leave the ship at this stage and NSRI on-scene Commander Graeme Harding, NSRI Knysna station commander, is in agreement that unless the situation turns worse it is unnecessary to evacuate crew in the dark under these sea conditions.

 

Media are respectfully requested to NOT call NSRI by phone on the scene and to liaise only via NSRI Communications at 0823803800.

 

This is a tense situation and our NSRI rescue resources on the scene cannot have communications tied up.

 

NSRI DOES NOT HAVE PHOTOGRAPHS AT THIS STAGE.

 

At this stage all crew onboard the trawler are safe and decisions on further action are being assessed.

 

Further updates will follow periodically as the morning progresses.

 

All 19 crew members were safely ashore after being rescued off the ship KIANI SATU. They were airlifted off the ship by a Titan helicopters Sikorski 76 helicopter. Picture Bianca Bezuidenhout, Wilderness NSRI crew.

All 19 crew members were safely ashore after being rescued off the ship KIANI SATU. They were airlifted off the ship by a Titan helicopters Sikorski 76 helicopter. Picture Bianca Bezuidenhout, Wilderness NSRI crew.

South Africa: Drama for lifeboatman as yacht hits reef and grounds at Cebe, on the Transkei Coast. Crew and dog wore life-jackets, safely ashore – 040813 1810z

“At 06h15 on Sunday the 4th of August NSRI East London volunteers were activated following reports of the 36 foot yacht BOUNDLESS reporting to have run aground at Cebe, approximately 450 km by road from East London, on the Transkei Coast.

 

Geoff McGregor, NSRI East London station commander, said: The crew, a husband and wife, Graham and Sheryl Anley, and their Jack-Russel dog Rosie, all wearing life-jackets (the dog wearing a specially tailored dog life-jacket which has its own emergency strobe light attached), had managed to swim to shore safely after their boat hit a reef in the early hours of this morning and they raised the alarm after reaching shore.

 

Graham is an NSRI Plettenberg Bay volunteer.

 

We dispatched an EC Government Health EMS rescue helicopter and on arrival on-scene they found the crew and dog safely ashore and not injured and the yacht severely damaged and high and dry on the high water mark.

 

Sherryl and Rosie were airlifted by the EMS rescue helicopter to our East London sea rescue base and a family back-packers lodge near to the scene are assisting Graham.

 

The EMS rescue helicopter crew had assisted to secure the yacht to the shore and personal belongings have been recovered from the yacht prior to departing for East London.

 

Efforts will be made by the couple to to arrange to salvage what they can of their yacht.

 

Sheryl and Rosie will return to the scene today and they will be assisted by the family of the back-packers lodge and take a few days to assess the situation and salvage what they can of the yacht.

 

Graham and Sheryl have respectively requested not to be contacted by media and NSRI will field any questions.

 

Graham told us they were headed on a 3 month break to Madagascar. Off Transkei they ran into very rough weather with wave heights of 7 meters which, despite their lowering sails and going onto motor power, eventually dragged their boat ashore and onto a reef.
As the incident happened Graham sent a Mayday radio distress call and activated the EPIRB (Global Positioning Distress beacon) but they were immediately forced to abandon ship and he first swam Rosie ashore safely before returning for his wife whose safety line had snagged on the steering gear.
Once safely ashore he raised the alarm by cell-phone.
Graham admits it is humbling, after 22 years as an NSRI volunteer, to have the shoe on the other foot and need to be rescued.

NSRI have expressed our delight that they are safe.” – NSRI

36 foot yacht BOUNDLESS (Photo: NSRI)

 

“The National Sea Rescue Institute (NSRI) is a voluntary non-profit organization in South Africa tasked with saving lives at sea. It consists of 32 coastal stations and 3 inland stations serviced by 980 volunteers equipped with 92 rescue craft and 27 vehicles. [1]

The NSRI works closely with other Search and rescue organisations in South Africa, including the South African Search and Rescue Organisation, VEMA High Angle Rescue in KwaZulu Natal, the South African Navy and the South African Air Force to coordinate air-sea rescue as well as rescue on land.” – wikipedia.org

South Africa: Nelson Mandela ‘Stable’ And ‘Trying To Open Eyes’ – 270613 2000z

“Mandela’s fate lies with God” – Mandla

news24.com 2013-06-27 21:17

 

 

Johannesburg – Former president Nelson Mandela‘s condition is stable though still critical, as the presidency announced, his grandson Mandla Mandela said on Thursday.

“Every improvement in my grandfather’s health is cause for celebration for many of us,” he said in a statement.

 

He continued to be heartened by the messages of support for the ailing icon, but was disappointed by the few who continued to spread rumours about his health.

 

“I call upon those responsible to desist from spreading mischievous rumours about Madiba‘s state of health. Our government has been keeping all of us informed in this regard and there is no reason to doubt the accuracy of the information they provide to the public,” he said.

 

“At the end of the day my grandfather’s fate, like that of everyone else, lies with God and our ancestors.”

 

Mandla Mandela visited his grandfather in hospital earlier on Thursday.

 

He said the family continued to be grateful to government, the ANC, and the doctors in charge of Mandela’s health during “this difficult period”.

 

The presidency announced around mid-afternoon on Thursday that Mandela’s condition had improved during the night.

 

According to the presidency’s statement: “President Jacob Zuma visited former president Nelson Mandela in hospital in Pretoria today, 27 June, and was informed by the medical team that Madiba‘s condition has improved during the course of the night.

 

“He remains critical, but is now stable,” spokesperson Mac Maharaj said.

 

– SAPA

Mandela ‘Stable’ And ‘Trying To Open Eyes’

SKY NEWS 6:07pm UK, Thursday 27 June 2013

The President says Nelson Mandela’s condition has improved overnight, as the icon’s daughter slams media “vultures”.

Nelson Mandela’s daughter has hit out at “racists” and “vultures” in the media, as the presidency says the anti-apartheid icon has improved overnight.

After visiting him in his Pretoria hospital,Makaziwe Mandelasaid her father – who is reportedly no longer able to breathe unassisted – is still “very critical”.

“Anything is imminent, but I want to emphasise again that it is only God who knows when the time to go is,” she told the public broadcaster SABC.

“I won’t lie, it doesn’t look good. But as I say, if we speak to him, he responds and tries to open his eyes.

“He’s still there. He might be waning off, but he’s still there.”

She also criticised the “crass” media frenzy, likening the media to vultures.

White balloons released outside Nelson Mandela hospital
Balloons were released outside the hospital

“It’s like truly vultures waiting when a lion has devoured a buffalo, waiting there you know for the last carcasses, that’s the image that we have as a family,” she said.

“And we don’t mind the interest but I just think that it has gone overboard.”

She also accused the foreign media of “a racist element” by crossing cultural boundaries.

“They violate all boundaries,” she said.

“Is it because we’re an African country that people just feel they can’t respect any laws of this country, they can violate everything in the book? I just think it’s in bad taste, it’s crass.”

Nelson Mandela are hung up at a mass prayer meeting  at Luhlaza High School in Khayelitsha in Cape Town
Mandela pictures are hung up at a mass prayer meeting at a Cape Town school

Her comments come as South African President Jacob Zumaalso visited Mr Mandela, saying the ailing former leader remained critical but stable.

“He is much better today than he was when I saw him last night. The medical team continues to do a sterling job,” MrZuma said in a statement.

The President abruptly cancelled a trip to Mozambique after making a late night visit to the revered former leader.

It is the first time Mr Zuma has scrapped a public engagement since Mr Mandela entered hospital on June 8.

South Africans have been praying, singing and dancing outside the Mediclinic Heart Hospital, where the 94-year-old anti-apartheid leader was taken with a recurring lung infection.

Crowds gathered outside Mr Mandela's hospital in Pretoria
Crowds have been singing and dancing outside the Medi-Clinic Heart Hospital

Sky News Correspondent Alex Crawford, who is outside the hospital, said the mood is celebratory.

A group of children released 95 white balloons after praying for the Nobel Peace Prize winner.

“There seems to be a determined effort to actually celebrate what Nelson Mandela has achieved throughout his life and pay homage to the fact that he is engaged in yet another fight right to the end,” Crawford said.

US President Barack Obama, who is in Senegal for his first significant tour of Africa,has paid tribute to Mr Mandela, saying he is a “hero for the world”whose legacy will live on throughout the ages.

Mr Obama is planning to visit South Africa on Friday as part of his African tour.

Barack Obama
Mr Obama says Mr Mandela is a “hero for the world”

The White House has said that it will defer to MrMandela’s family over whether the President would visit his political hero in hospital.

The two men met in 2005 when Mr Obama was a newly elected senator and the former South African president was in Washington and have spoken by telephone since.

They have not met in person since then, although Michelle Obama met with Mr Mandela during a trip in 2011.

Zimbabwe: Speeding bus hits herd of cattle on Beitbridge-Masvingo highway, leaving 6 dead, 37 injured – 300513 1530z

Six people died and 37 others were injured when a Pioneer bus ran into a herd of cattle and landed on its side at the 237km peg along the Beitbridge-Masvingo highway.

(Photo: africanseer.com) Zimbabwe bus accident kills 6, injures 37

ZRP Officer Commanding Beitbridge, Chief Superintendent Lawrence Chinhengo confirmed the accident, saying the bus, which had 55 people on board, was coming from Johannesburg.

He said the bus driver, who was speeding, lost control of the vehicle after hitting one of the cows and the bus landed on its side, killing five women on the spot and the bus conductor.

The injured passengers were taken to Beitbridge District Hospital. Chief Superintendent Chinhengo urged motorists to exercise extreme caution on the roads to avoid accidents.
Thursday, 30 May, 2013 at 03:36 (03:36 AM) UTC RSOE

Other Reports

6 killed, 37 injured in Beitbridge accident

herald.co.zw

Thupeyo Muleya Beitbridge Bureau
Six people were killed while 37 others were injured, three of them seriously, when a Pioneer bus ploughed into a herd of cattle 40km along the Beitbridge-Masvingo Road on Tuesday night.

The incident occurred at around 10:30 pm near Matshiloni area where police and officials from the Civil Protection Unit spent the whole night trying to retrieve the bodies from the wreckage.

They managed to pull out all the bodies at around 5am yesterday.
It is reported that the bus, which was coming from Johannesburg, South Africa, tried to overtake a haulage truck oblivious of oncoming traffic and later hit a cow as the driver tried to avoid an imminent head on collision.

Among those who were killed were the bus conductor and five passengers, all women, and they have since been taken to Beitbridge District Hospital mortuary for a post-mortem.
The police officer commanding Beitbridge district Chief Superintendent Lawrence Chinhengo said yesterday that the bus had 55 passengers on board.

He said they suspected the accident was a result of speeding.
He said the victims’ next of kin were yet to be notified.

śIndications are that the Pioneer (Yotung Model) was travelling to Harare from Johannesburg being driven by Big Chirimuta.
śThe bus had 55 passengers on board and when they were 40km out of Beitbridge along Masvingo road, the driver overtook a haulage truck oblivion of oncoming traffic. When he tried to avoid a herd on collision he ploughed into a herd of cattle,ť he said.

Chief Supt Chinhengo said as a result the bus hit one of the cows and turned 360 degrees to face Beitbridge town before lending on its side.
He said in the process six people were trapped under the bus and died instantly, while 37 other including Chirimuta were injured.

śThree of the passengers were seriously injured including the driver and they are still admitted at Beitbridge district hospital where their condition is reported to be stable,ť he   said.

Chief Supt Chinhengo said 33 other passengers were treated and discharged at the same hospital.
He said the matter was still under investigations.

He also urged motorists to always abide by the basic road regulations so as to avoid the unnecessary loss of life.
śWe want to urge all road users to always abide by the laws of the land so as to avoid the unnecessary loss of life. Investigations so far reveal that the accident was a result of speeding, something which was avoidable,ť he said.

Investigations by this paper recently showed that some criminals who operate along the same area (Matshiloni) are in the habit of driving cattle into the road and cause accidents thereby opening opportunities to loot valuables.

In some cases they even put boulders on the road and pounce on motorists when they stop to clear the road. Several motorists have been robbed at the same point while others lost their lives due to the road accidents orchestrated by these criminals.

Last year police arrested over 13 robbers who have been terrorising road users on highways leading to Bulawayo and Harare.” – herald.co.zw

Nigeria: Tugboat towing an oil tanker sinks 30 km off the coast, 13 feared dead – 280513 1410z

Chevron Nigeria Limited (CNL), operator of the NNPC/CNL Joint Venture, has confirmed that ‘Jascon 4’ vessel belonging to its contractor, West African Ventures Limited, has capsized and sank in the early hours of Sunday in Delta State.

The vessel sank while supporting a tanker loading at Single Mooring (SBM) No.3 a loading point 30 km offshore in the Escravos area. Chevron’s General Manager, Policy, Government and Public Affairs explained in a statement that Initial reports indicated that heavy ocean swells caused the Jascon No.4 to capsize while performing tension tow operations of the tanker at SBM No.3. He confirmed that emergency response has commenced, including Search and Rescue operation with surface vessels, helicopters and divers. According to him “Chevron Nigeria Limited (CNL), operator of the NNPC/CNL Joint Venture, confirms that Jascon No.4 vessel belonging to our contractor, West African Ventures Limited, capsized and sank early this morning while supporting a tanker loading at Single Buoy Mooring (SBM) No.3, a loading point 30 km offshore in the Escravos area of Delta state, Nigeria. Initial reports indicated that heavy ocean swells caused the Jascon No.4 to capsize while performing tension tow operations of the tanker at SBM No.3. Emergency Response has commenced, including Search and Rescue operation with surface vessels, helicopters and divers. CNL wishes to stress that we conduct our business operations in line with the safest global industry standards. The safety of our employees and contractors alike, remains our highest priority,”
Tuesday, 28 May, 2013 at 03:12 (03:12 AM) UTC RSOE

“The Nation gathered that the incident occurred at 4.30am yesterday and that none of the 12 persons on board the vessel has been found at the time of filing this report.

The President of West African Ventures, Mr. Jacques Roomans, told our correspondent on phone that he just returned from abroad and did not have details about the incident.

Information on WAV’s website showed that JASCON #4 was delivered in January 2004 and has the capacity to accommodate 16 persons.

Sea Trucks Nigeria Limited is into chartering small inland oilfield support vessels to affiliates of major international oil and gas companies operating in the oil and gas fields in Niger Delta. It also has marine support facilities in Warri, Delta State, where it maintains and repairs its vessels and also begins a local inland vessel building business.” – thenationonlineng.net

SeaTruck boat mishap: 13 feared dead, tug boat still missing

SweetCrude Reports 27 May 2013, WARRI

Jascon tugboat 13 crew members on the tugboat, Jascon 4 belonging to West Africa Ventures, a division of the Sea Truck Group, which sunk offshore Nigeria, yesterday, around the Escravos high sea in Warri South-West council area of Delta State are still missing and are currently feared dead.

The tugboat named Jascon 4 was towing an oil tanker to Chevron Nigeria Limited, CNL, export terminal, Berth Operation Platform, B.O.P, in the high sea when the towing rope went apart forcing the tug boat to nose-dive into the deep water and has still not been found as at press time.

The incident was said to have occurred around 4:am Saturday with rescue teams still searching frantically for survivors and the tug boat without any success.

No official of the Seatruck Group or Chevron could be reached for comments at the time of filing this report.

Meanwhile, some family members of the victims of the unfortunate incident have expressed worry over the misfortune that have befallen their bread winners hoping that they could be furnished with information on the outcome of ongoing rescue efforts.” – http://sweetcrudereports.com

Off the coast of Nigeria tugboat sank to a citizen of Ukraine on board

(Translated by Google)

Off the coast of Nigeria tugboat sank to a citizen of Ukraine on board

As we learned yesterday, 30 kilometers from the coast of Nigeria in the oil field Chevron tug sank Jascon-4, IMO 9316256, flag of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

Tug supported the loading tanker mooring at number three barrels. The tug was owned by the company «West African Ventures Limited». The representatives of the shipowner confirmed flooding their tug. According to preliminary information, the cause of the flooding were bad weather conditions.

On board were 16 crew members. At the moment, they are all missing. According to information available to us in tow as a senior mechanic working citizen of Ukraine.

Currently on the site of the tragedy are continuing search operations. Nigeria has mobilized emergency services navy and air force to search for the ship’s crew Jascon-4.

Representatives of the owner, the company «West African Ventures Limited», confirmed the ship wreck Jascon-4, but more abstain from any official statements until the end of exploration and investigation of the accident.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine informed about the incident, but has so far refrained from making any official statements.” – seafarersjournal.com

END

The cause of this sinking appears to differ in the various accounts, rough seas, flooding & tow line snap are all given. They may not be mutually exclusive. 

South Africa: Fishing vessel lost in fog, 3 fishermen rescued in Hout Bay by NSRI – 250513 1130z

nsri.org.za

Fishing vessel lost in fog, 3 fishermen rescued in Hout Bay

 

 

The fishing boat is recovered at Hout Bay. Picture Lyall Pringle/NSRI

The fishing boat is recovered at Hout Bay. Picture Lyall Pringle/NSRI

 

At 17h03 on Friday the 24th of May Hout Bay volunteers were called out by the Transnet National Ports Authority to assist a small fishing boat, with 3 local Hout Bay fishermen onboard, lost in dense fog and believed to be in the vicinity of Cape Point.

 

Lyall Pringle, NSRI Hout Bay station commander, said: Our duty crew launched NADINE GORDIMER and ALBIE MATTHEWS and a search commenced in dense fog for the boat. The three fishermen had only a vague idea of where they could be based on their estimated compass direction that they had travelled from Hout Bay and the length of time and speed that they had been underway.

 

The fishermen had run out of fuel and were adrift in 35 meters depth of water with only a 25 meter length anchor chain so the usual procedure of getting them to put to anchor and wait for the fog to lift was not an option.

 

Based on the information available we narrowed down the search area to between the shoreline and 3 nautical miles out to sea, between Kommetjie and Cape Point. While searching in this area we found the fishermen at approximately 22h00 just over 3 nautical miles off Soetwater (between Kommetjie and Cape Point). A tow-line was rigged and we towed them safely to Hout Bay harbour, arriving just after midnight.

 

NSRI are urging boaters to carry all safety equipment required including GPS (Global Positioning System) device and to check weather forecasts before launching particularly on the West Coast which sees dense fog conditions regularly during winter months.

 

The NSRI volunteers with the three fishermen. A small fishing boat, with 3 local Hout Bay fishermen onboard, were lost in dense fog and believed to be off Cape Point. They were rescued by Hout Bay NSRI. Picture Lyall Pringle/NSRI

The NSRI volunteers with the three fishermen and their family members who were waiting for them. Picture Lyall Pringle/NSRI

 

Nadine Gordimer off Hout Bay.

Nadine Gordimer off Hout Bay.

 

Swaziland: Witches piloting broomsticks banned from flying above 150 metres – 190513 1455z

Witches flying broomsticks in Swaziland above 150metres will be subject to arrest and a hefty fine of R500 000 (£35,487), civil aviation authorities said, according to a report.

(Photo: EPA)

 

Witches broomsticks are considered similar to any heavier-than-air transportation device that is airborne, reports The Star.

 

A witch on a broomstick should not fly above the [150-metre] limit, Civil Aviation Authority marketing and corporate affairs director Sabelo Dlamini told the newspaper.

 

No penalties exist for witches flying below 150metres.

 

The report said it was hard to say how serious he was, but witchcraft isnt a joking matter in Swaziland, where the people believe in it.

 

The statute also forbids toy helicopters and childrens kites from ascending too high into the countrys airspace.

 

Dlamini was asked by the Swazi press to explain the countrys aviation laws following the arrest of a private detective, Hunter Shongwe, for operating a toy helicopter equipped with a video camera, of which he boasted using to gather surveillance information similar to the way a drone aircraft operates.

 

The detective was charged with operating an unregistered aircraft and for failing to appear before his chief to be questioned by traditional authorities about his toy drone, the first of its kind in Swaziland.

 

Swazi brooms are short bundles of sticks tied together and do not have handles. Swazi witches are known to use them to fling potions about homesteads but not for transport.

Items about witchcraft on Goaty’s News

Angola: Approx 300,000 people at risk of malnutrition due to 2 year long drought – 100513 2100z

https://i0.wp.com/www.spxdaily.com/images-lg/map-africa-angola-lg.jpgAngola set up an emergency plan on Thursday for the southern province of Cunene, where an estimated 300 000 people are at risk of malnutrition because of a two-year-long drought.

“The plan seeks to immediately provide medical assistance, food and drinking water for the most needy populations,” the cabinet’s economic commission said in a statement. Cunene, a semi-arid province which shares a border with Namibia to the south, depends largely on subsistence farming and cattle-raising.

Provincial governor Antonio Didalelwa was cited by state-owned newspaper Jornal de Angola as saying more than 300 000 people, or approximately the entire known population of the province, are at risk of malnutrition.

“We are worried about the situation. There is a lack of food and water for people and cattle,” he said. “The people in the province are going through very tough times because it hasn’t rained for two years and that is harming families, who depend on agriculture and cattle-raising.” Angola, which is roughly twice the size of Texas, suffered heavily from drought last year.
Friday, 10 May, 2013 at 09:10 (09:10 AM) UTC RSOE

Other Reports

“Lisbon –

The United Nations Children Fund (Unicef) said that 1.8 million people were affected by a prolonged drought in 2012, including more than 500 000 children.

The UN agency said it has been working closely with the government to ensure the drought does not result in malnutrition.

Angola is Africa’s second-largest oil producer, after Nigeria, but is still recovering from a 27-year that ended 11 years ago and which devastated most of its infrastructure.

President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, who has been in power since 1979, has promised to improve social conditions and better distribute Angola’s oil wealth during a new five-year term he secured in an election last year.

His government said on Thursday it would use budget funds to minimise consequences of natural disasters in Cunene.”

Seeking African asylum where gays are beaten, raped

76 CRIMES

The ugly side of Capetown through the eyes of a gay asylum-seeker

While many flocked into South Africa for the World Cup and job opportunities, his only reason was to seek protection from persecution by his family and the wider society back home.

When he fled from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 2010, hoping to start a new life away from the people baying for his blood, he did not envisage the anguish and terror that was to befall him. He endured discrimination at the refugee camp in Capetown, then suffered an attempted rape by a police officer and a brutal assault by a homophobic man.

Such is the plight of Junior Mayema, 25, a gay man seeking refuge in South Africa.  Although neither his native country nor his country of refuge is one of the 76-plus countries with laws against homosexual activity, both are inhospitable to LGBT…

View original post 964 more words

Kenya: Further flash floods leave 32 dead, 14 injured, 6 missing, 18,633 diplaced – Red Cross – 110413 1120z

At least 32 people were killed and 18,633 others displaced by flash floods caused by heavy rains in Kenya, the East African nations Red Cross Society (KRCS) said Wednesday.

(Photo: EPA)

The KRCS also reported 14 people were injured and six others missing in the floods.

Several parts of the country especially the Coast and Western Kenya regions have been affected by flooding following an increased heavy downpour countrywide, the humanitarian agency said in a statement issued in the capital Nairobi.
The government has advised people living in flood prone areas to move to higher ground following the heavy rains in many parts of the country.
Widespread destruction of property and infrastructure has also resulted, as well as disruption of key activities such as farming and education.
The most affected regions are in Western Kenya, Coastal region and parts of Rift Valley where heavy rains have washed away bridges and rendered many roads impassable, making difficult efforts to reach thousands of people made homeless by the flooding.
The development comes as meteorological department says depressed and poorly distributed rainfall is expected over most parts of the country during March-May Long-Rains season.
According to Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), this is likely to be more pronounced in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs).
It said the western and central counties including Nairobi as well as the Coastal strip are likely to experience enhanced rainfall.
Thursday, 11 April, 2013 at 03:15 (03:15 AM) UTC RSOE

(Video credit: Kiss Tv)

NewsReports

Flash floods kill 32, displace 18,600 people in Kenya

English.news.cn 2013-04-11 05:31:55

NAIROBI, April 10 (Xinhua) At least 32 people were killed and 18,633 others displaced by flash floods caused by heavy rains in Kenya, the East African nations Red Cross Society (KRCS) said Wednesday.

The KRCS also reported 14 people were injured and six others missing in the floods.

Several parts of the country especially the Coast and Western Kenya regions have been affected by flooding following an increased heavy downpour countrywide, the humanitarian agency said in a statement issued in the capital Nairobi.

The government has advised people living in flood prone areas to move to higher ground following the heavy rains in many parts of the country.

Widespread destruction of property and infrastructure has also resulted, as well as disruption of key activities such as farming and education.

The most affected regions are in Western Kenya, Coastal region and parts of Rift Valley where heavy rains have washed away bridges and rendered many roads impassable, making difficult efforts to reach thousands of people made homeless by the flooding

The development comes as meteorological department says depressed and poorly distributed rainfall is expected over most parts of the country during March-May Long-Rains season.

According to Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), this is likely to be more pronounced in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs). It said the western and central counties including Nairobi as well as the Coastal strip are likely to experience enhanced rainfall.

Most of the rainfall in the country is expected during the peak month of April except over the Coastal strip where the peak is expected during the month of May, KMD said.

The weather experts said in northwestern and Southeastern Kenya, the rainfall performance is likely to be generally depressed in April and May but slightly enhanced in March.

Generally enhanced rainfall is expected over the western highlands, Lake Basin, central Rift Valley and the central highlands including Nairobi in March and April. It is, however, expected to be generally depressed in May, it said.

KMD said northeastern parts are likely to experience generally depressed rainfall throughout the season. The southeastern counties are expected to receive depressed rainfall throughout the period.

The rainfall performance along the Coastal Strip is expected to be near normal in March and April but enhanced in May especially along the north coast. English.news.cn

Related:

Kenya: At least 6 die, many homeless as widespread flash floods bring chaos and misery to hundreds Red Cross 0304130745z

Kenya: 4 more die in flash flooding, death total rises to 50 & expected to rise further thousandsdisplaced

Zambia: Gays deserve rights, regardless of theology

76 CRIMES

At a time when Zambia is cracking down on LGBT rights activists, the Rev.  Kapya Kaoma of Zambia and the United States provides this eloquent plea for gay rights:

Friends, gays may be sinners but they are humans with rights. I may believe drunkards will go to hell and that women are inferior to men but that does not justify the denial of their rights. I may consider smoking evil but to persecute those who smoke is wrong.Nobody is promoting homosexuality – we have gays in our midst. They may be hiding but they are our brothers, sisters, nieces, nephews, friends and workmates. They attend church, sing in our choirs, tithe and in some cases they are our pastors and priests. But they also cry, bleed and die.

Please let us live to disagree but never sacrifice our common humanity. African gays will not get their rights without a fight…

View original post 135 more words

Zambia police refuse to release ailing gay rights activist

76 CRIMES

Police in Zambia are balking at releasing anti-AIDS and human rights activist Paul Kasonkomona from jail even though his supporters have provided the required guarantees that he would return to face court proceedings.

His supporters appealed today to Zambian leaders and international groups to help win his release, saying that Kasonkomona’s continued detention poses a grave threat to his health.

Kasonkomona, who is HIV-positive, was arrested April 7 after he appeared live on television in Zambia urging recognition of gay rights.

He was charged with one count of “promoting immoral acts.”

His supporters were told that Kasonkomona would be released if he could provide two working sureties to guarantee his return to court. But when they did that, police refused to set him free.

“We met all the legal requirements, and now they are saying it’s a political case. It is unlawful for the police to detain Paul for more…

View original post 283 more words

Cameroon police re-arrest 2 gay men whom court freed

76 CRIMES

Two gay men, released from a Cameroon prison in January, have again been arrested. They have been held in police custody for the past two days, since shortly after they were attacked in a local marketplace on Sunday, March 24.

The incident began when Jonas Singa Kumie and Franky Djome (Franky Ndome), variously described as gay men and as transgender, went shopping last Sunday at the Essos market in Yaoundé. They dressed as they usually do — in women’s attire and wearing wigs. From a distance, their sexy outfits could give the impression of two young ladies shopping at the market. But in this particular market, their identities could not go unnoticed. They are well known, because Franky ran a hair salon here before being sent to prison in 2011 to serve a five-year sentence for homosexuality.

They are also known outside Cameroon, because of news reports about their trial…

View original post 507 more words

Lesbian dies after being deported by United Kingdom back to Uganda

(Photo: demotix.com)
14.3.13 Protest against UK Border Agency after Ugandan woman dies
(Click photo for source)

A protest outside the home office, called on Theresa May to resign after Jackie Nanyonjo reportedly died in Uganda after she claimed she was at risk of homophobic persecution, after being deported to Uganda by UK border agency.

O-blog-dee-o-blog-da

By Melanie Nathan, March 12, 2013.

Screen Shot 2013-03-13 at 10.25.36 AMActivists in the United Kingdom are blaming the United Kingdom Border Agency for deporting an asylum seeker who has now according to Pink News, died in Uganda, “after she claimed she was at risk of homophobic persecution,” if she returned.

When it comes to LGBT Asylum the UK is all talk and no real action.  While the United Kingdom’s government  purports to support LGBT asylees, in truth they fail them, certainly when it comes to the Home Office and the consideration that ought to be given to asyless from all over the world, especially Africa and more especially, Uganda.

The UK Border Agency (UKBA) deported Jackie Nanyonjo to the African country on 12 January, despite promises that they would improve asylum chances for LGBT people. According to reports, she fought strongly against the deportation order and continued to resist the decision, “becoming ill…

View original post 380 more words