Australia (QLD): Tropical Cyclone DEBBIE (13P) 260900Z position nr 18.4S 151.0E, moving WSW 03kt (JTWC) – Published 26 Mar 2017 1253z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Debbie (13P)

Tropical cyclone Debbie moving towards the coast, expected to intensify into a category 3 system this evening – Brisbane TCWC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 18 FEET

IDQ20023

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15

Issued at 7:49 pm EST on Sunday 26 March 2017

Headline:

Tropical cyclone Debbie moving towards the coast, expected to intensify into a category 3 system this evening.

Areas Affected:

Warning Zone

Lucinda to St Lawrence including Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands.

Watch Zone

Innisfail to Lucinda, extending inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

Cancelled Zone

None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Debbie at 7:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 18.4 degrees South 150.9 degrees East, estimated to be 440 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 330 kilometres east northeast of Bowen.

Movement: west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Debbie is moving west-southwest towards the north Queensland coast and is currently forecast to intensify into a category 3 system tonight. Tropical cyclone Debbie is likely continue on a similar track and intensify further prior to making landfall between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

Hazards:

GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay tonight, and could extend to remaining areas between Lucinda and St Lawrence on Monday. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Innisfail and Lucinda during Monday evening or Tuesday morning, as well as further inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay as early as Monday morning. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may then gradually extend further north to Lucinda during the day Monday and overnight into Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently expected to cross the coast between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the centre.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur south of Proserpine on the high tides on Monday.

Residents between and between Lucinda and Mackay are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast on Tuesday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.as the cyclone approaches the coast on Tuesday. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas late on Sunday and continue through Monday and Tuesday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 200 mm, with isolated falls of 400 mm, is also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area next week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cardwell and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Recommended Action:

People between Ayr and St Lawrence should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours.

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between Cairns and Ayr, and inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

– Information is available from your local government

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Sunday 26 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau’s website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

================================================================================

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 26 Mar, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone DEBBIE is currently located near 18.3 S 151.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 70 kts (81 mph). DEBBIE is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DEBBIE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mackay (21.3 S, 149.1 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Ingham (18.5 S, 146.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
260600Z — NEAR 18.3S 151.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 151.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 18.6S 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 19.0S 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 19.5S 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 20.0S 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 20.9S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 21.6S 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 151.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. A 260545Z SSMIS 37
GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, A LARGE
MICROWAVE EYE, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED
BY MULTI-AGENCY DVORAKS OF T3.5 (55 TO 70 KNOTS) LATEST SATCON
ESTIMATES AROUND 65 KNOTS, AND THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, RECENT TPW IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS SLOWED THE
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC DEBBIE HAS BEEN TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NER AND A
STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UNDER THE SHARED
STEERING INFLUENCE OF BOTH FEATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL TC 13P MAKES LANDFALL
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY
INTENSIFICATION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND, THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
OF RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE LEADING TO COMPLETE
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE ON THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTAU05 APRF 260653
IDW23100
40:3:1:24:16S099E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0653UTC 26 MARCH 2017

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Caleb was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal zero south (16.0S)
longitude ninety nine decimal four east (99.4E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 994 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre.

Winds above 34 knots Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant,
with rough to very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 26 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 16.0 south 98.8 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 27 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 16.0 south 97.7 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 26 March 2017.

WEATHER PERTH

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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Australia (QLD): Twelve people, mostly children, rescued from waters off Turnagain Island in the Torres Strait – Published 26 Sept 2015 0930z (GMT/UTC)

ABC News

Torres Strait rescue: Twelve people, including children, saved during night time ocean rescue

Posted about 2 hours ago

Twelve people, most of them children, were rescued from waters off Turnagain Island in the Torres Strait overnight after two boats got into difficulty while making a trip from Thursday Island to Saibai Island.

The Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) coordinated the search after it detected an emergency beacon registered to a five-metre dingy in the vicinity of Turnagain Island about 9pm.

A helicopter was diverted to the scene by AMSA and located the first vessel which was taking on water and drifting towards a small island surrounded by crocodile-infested mangroves.

“We found a boat that had nine people on board that was bailing water. The people had rigged a makeshift sail and were luckily drifting into an island,” a rescue pilot said.

“We flew over to the island to illuminate the coastline for them. There was nothing else around for them to get to. They drifted into the island and landed in an estuary.”

The first rescue helicopter left the scene as it was running low on fuel while a second helicopter attended and winched a rescue swimmer down to the group.

The group advised rescuers there was a second dingy which had overturned with three people on board and they were still in the water.

According to AMSA a search was commenced immediately and a dingy with three people clinging to the hull was sighted in rough seas a short time later in the vicinity of Turnagain Island, about 37 kilometres from Sabai Island.

“We went out and searched and found the other people clinging to an overturned boat,” the pilot said.

“A Navy ship was nearby that was diverted and also a police vessel was on the scene to help coordinate that rescue too.”

Fortunately the three people from the overturned dingy were all wearing life jackets which contributed to their safe rescue, the AMSA said in a statement.

“It also helped that the beacon was correctly registered. From the beacon registration information, JRCC Australia was able to get early information about the number of boats and people to plan an appropriate rescue response,” the AMSA said.

Queensland Police confirmed there were multiple children involved in the incident, including an eight-year-old boy, all of whom were rescued and taken to family on Saibai Island.

The search and rescue mission included two rescue helicopters, a fixed-wing aircraft, a police vessel and a Navy vessel. –
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-26/twelve-people-rescued-from-waters-off-horn-island-torres-strait/6807078

Australia (NT): Ex-Tropical Cyclone Nathan 18P – Updated 240315 1715z (GMT/UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Nathan

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

IDA00041 N24

NT

Details for: Ex-TC Nathan

Australia National Weather Warnings Summary. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings/index.shtml

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh1815 N24

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/18P_040532sams.jpg

WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
240600Z — NEAR 12.5S 132.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 132.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z — 12.7S 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 132.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NATHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 88 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18P HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK INLAND OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS WHILE RAPIDLY WEAKENING. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXPOSED, BROADENING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
SOUTHEASTWARD. RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE DARWIN RADAR PROVIDES FURTHER
EVIDENCE OF THE WEAKENED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH BROAD, FRAGMENTED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY-DEFINED CENTER. MULTIPLE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE REGION INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
(ADJUSTED TO 1-MINUTE AVERAGE) OF ONLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY,
THE MOST RECENT DARWIN SOUNDING SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR THROUGH
THE COLUMN WHILE THE LATEST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATES
DRY AIR ADVECTING ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
SYSTEM IS ALSO LOCATED UNDER NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS. THERFORE, THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH AT LEAST TAU 48 WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT AFTER TAU 60 TO 72 AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Mar, 2015 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Depression NATHAN (18P) currently located near 12.5 S 132.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Oenpelli (12.3 S, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA10 / WARNING_WESTERN_DARWIN / 1235

WOAU03 AMMC 241235
IDY21020
40:3:1:04:55S075E35060:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BNOC
AT 1235UTC 24 MARCH 2015
GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AREA
PLEASE BE AWARE
WIND GUSTS CAN BE 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE,
AND MAXIMUM
WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.
SITUATION
VIGOROUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT FORECAST NEAR 44S076E 50S088E AT 241800UTC, 44S077E
50S090E AT
250001UTC, 43S080E 50S093E AT 250600UTC AND 43S084E 46S091E 50S096E
AT
251200UTC.
AREA AFFECTED
BOUNDED BY 46S080E 50S091E 50S101E 44S097E 43S092E 43S080E 46S080E.
FORECAST
W/NW WINDS 30/40 KNOTS DEVELOPING WITHIN 240NM EAST OF COLD FRONT
AFTER
241800UTC AND EXTENDING TO WITHIN 360NM EAST OF COLD FRONT BY
250600UTC.
W/SW WINDS 30/40 KNOTS DEVELOPING WITHIN 120NM SOUTHWEST OF COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF
45S BY 250600UTC.
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SWELL.
WEATHER MELBOURNE=

Further warnings here: METAREA X

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (QLD): Tropical Cyclone Marcia 13P 20/2000 EST nr 24.3S 150.9E, moving SSE at 18 km/h – BoM – Updated 200215 1238z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Marcia 13P

Warning zone: Rockhampton to Double Island Point, extending inland to Biloela, Monto, and Mundubbera

Watch zone: None.

Cyclone Marcia downgraded to Intensity Category 1, moving south-southeast over the southern Capricornia. – BoM

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

sp201513_sat_anim

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

M

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Marcia

Issued at 7:51 pm EST Friday 20 February 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 39.

QLD track

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Cyclone Marcia downgraded to category 1, moving south-southeast over the southern Capricornia.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Rockhampton to Double Island Point, extending inland to Biloela, Monto, and Mundubbera
.

Watch zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Marcia at 8:00 pm EST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 24.3 degrees South, 150.9 degrees East , 65 kilometres southwest of Gladstone and 40 kilometres east northeast of Biloela .
Movement: south southeast at 18 kilometres per hour .

Tropical cyclone Marcia has weakened to a category 1 cyclone, and is moving south-southeast over the southern Capricornia district while continuing to weaken. It is expected to weaken below cyclone strength tonight.

Destructive winds are no longer expected at Biloela. Damaging wind gusts to about 120 km/h are still possible over the next couple of hours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current south of Double Island Point and inland to the southern Burnett and eastern parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 120 km/h are expected about the coast and adjacent inland between Rockhampton and Double Island Point tonight, including Biloela, Monto, and Mundubbera.

Abnormally high tides will be experienced between Gladstone and Double Island Point with water levels expected to rise above the highest tide of the year on the high tide, even though the cyclone is inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible.

Dangerous surf is also expected.

Heavy rainfall is already occurring about coastal and adjacent inland areas between Gladstone and Double Island Point, and is expected to continue tonight and Saturday morning as the cyclone moves south. A Flood Watch is current for the area.

Recommended Action:

People between Rockhamton and Double Island Point and adjacent inland areas including Biloela, Monto and Mundubbera should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 11 pm.
– Information is available from your local government
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm February 20 1 24.3S 150.9E 30
+6hr 2 am February 21 tropical low 25.1S 151.2E 30
+12hr 8 am February 21 tropical low 25.9S 151.7E 55
+18hr 2 pm February 21 tropical low 26.6S 152.2E 80
+24hr 8 pm February 21 tropical low 27.3S 152.9E 100
+36hr 8 am February 22 tropical low 28.3S 154.2E 135
+48hr 8 pm February 22 tropical low 28.7S 155.4E 170
+60hr 8 am February 23 tropical low 28.8S 156.5E 210
+72hr 8 pm February 23 tropical low 28.4S 157.4E 245

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Friday

 Australia Severe Weather Warnings (link)

IDQ20023

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 39
Issued at 7:51 pm EST on Friday 20 February 2015

Headline:
Cyclone Marcia downgraded to category 1, moving south-southeast over the southern Capricornia.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Rockhampton to Double Island Point, extending inland to Biloela, Monto, and Mundubbera

Watch Zone
None

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Marcia at 8:00 pm EST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 24.3 degrees South 150.9 degrees East, estimated to be 65 kilometres southwest of Gladstone and 40 kilometres east northeast of Biloela.

Movement: south southeast at 18 kilometres per hour.

 

Tropical cyclone Marcia has weakened to a category 1 cyclone, and is moving south-southeast over the southern Capricornia district while continuing to weaken. It is expected to weaken below cyclone strength tonight.

 

Destructive winds are no longer expected at Biloela. Damaging wind gusts to about 120 km/h are still possible over the next couple of hours.

 

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current south of Double Island Point and inland to the southern Burnett and eastern parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 120 km/h are expected about the coast and adjacent inland between Rockhampton and Double Island Point tonight, including Biloela, Monto, and Mundubbera.

 

Abnormally high tides will be experienced between Gladstone and Double Island Point with water levels expected to rise above the highest tide of the year on the high tide, even though the cyclone is inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible.

 

Dangerous surf is also expected.

 

Heavy rainfall is already occurring about coastal and adjacent inland areas between Gladstone and Double Island Point, and is expected to continue tonight and Saturday morning as the cyclone moves south. A Flood Watch is current for the area.

Recommended Action:
People between Rockhamton and Double Island Point and adjacent inland areas including Biloela, Monto and Mundubbera should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 11 pm.

– Information is available from your local government

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Friday 20 February.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau’s website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

Australia Severe Weather Warnings (link)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

sh1315

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/13P_200532sams.jpg

 

 

WTPS32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
200600Z — NEAR 23.8S 150.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 175 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 150.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 25.4S 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 26.9S 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 28.1S 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 28.6S 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL

REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 150.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (MARCIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG WITH ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC
13P MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 19/2200Z AND HAS STARTED TO
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS DRAGGED ACROSS LAND. RADAR
IMAGERY FROM GLADSTONE, AUSTRALIA, ADDITIONALLY SHOWS THE EYE
FEATURE HAS DISSOLVED AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HAS STARTED TO OPEN WHILE THE REMAINING ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS
STARTED TO WARM AND BREAK APART. THERE IS DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE UNRAVELING NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION FROM OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA AND DUE TO THE
DECREASING STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A DECREASING
ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
ASSESSED AT MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) LEVELS, AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ADDITIONALLY SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, IS
BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE EAST AND PRESS ON THE SYSTEM. TC MARCIA IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE DUE
TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND AND THE DECREASING UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH. THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CORAL SEA NEAR BRISBANE AS A WEAK (<30 KNOTS) SUBTROPICAL LOW WHILE
THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND MARGINAL (24 TO 26
DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO NOT FAVOR RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

 

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 0618UTC 20 FEBRUARY 2015

GALE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia was centred over land within 10
nautical miles of
latitude twenty three decimal eight south (23.8S)
longitude one hundred and fifty decimal seven east (150.7E)
Recent movement : south at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 65 knots
Central pressure: 975 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within area 23S 151E to 23S 153E to 26S 155E to 26S 153E

FORECAST
NW/NE winds 34 to 47 knots with rough to very rough seas. Winds easing below 34
knots by 202000UTC.
Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 20 February: Within 30 nautical miles of 25.4 south 151.3 east over
land
At 0600 UTC 21 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 26.9 south 152.4 east over
land

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 20 February 2015.

WEATHER BRISBANE

Further warnings here:

METAREA X
METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia: Tropical Cyclone (now Extratropical) 23P ITA 140900Z nr 24.0S 155.9E, moving ESE at 23 knots (JTWC) – Updated 140414 1620z

TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) (JTWC)

Ex-TC Ita (BoM)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

 

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

Map of Australian region showing the location of any current active tropical cyclones

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA – EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0726 UTC 14/04/2014
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ita
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 23.7S
Longitude: 155.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [122 deg]
Speed of Movement: 18 knots [33 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 0 nm [0 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 14/1200: 24.3S 156.6E: 040 [080]: 050 [095]: 992
+12: 14/1800: 24.7S 157.6E: 055 [100]: 050 [095]: 992
+18: 15/0000: 25.3S 158.6E: 065 [125]: 045 [085]: 995
+24: 15/0600: 25.9S 159.9E: 080 [145]: 045 [085]: 995
+36: 15/1800: 27.6S 162.6E: 100 [185]: 040 [075]: 993
+48: 16/0600: 30.9S 166.8E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 996
+60: 16/1800: 36.0S 170.2E: 140 [255]: 035 [065]: 994
+72: 17/0600: 38.2S 170.3E: 155 [290]: 035 [065]: 990
+96: 18/0600: : : :
+120: 19/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
Analysis of the cloud system and ASCAT data suggests that the system has
completed its transition to a vigorous extra-tropical low. Movement will
continue to be rapidly ESE due to NW’ly steering from a strong upper trough over
eastern Australia. Deep layer wind shear over the system is estimated to be 30 –
40 knots.

Surface observations from Cato Island indicate that the system has intensified
during the extra-tropical transition, with maximum sustained winds pushed up to
50 knots. Dvorak analysis no longer relevant. Confidence in the LLCC position is
fair, using visible satelite imagery and surface automatic weather station
observations.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==

No further technical bulletins are expected to be issued for this system.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2314.gif

 

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/23P_140532sams.jpg

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 140900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
140600Z — NEAR 23.7S 155.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 120 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 155.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 25.0S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 155.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS TC 23P HAS STARTED TO RAPIDLY UNDERGO EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BECOMES FURTHER EMBEDDED IN THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS STARTED TO
ELONGATE WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO TAKE ON FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THE LATEST AMSU CROSS SECTION ADDITIONALLY SHOWS A
DEVELOPING WARM CORE ANOMALY IN THE LOWER LEVELS, INDICATIVE OF A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT, WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE ANOMALY HAS
DISSIPATED. AS TC ITA CONTINUES SOUTHEAST, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
FROM THE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER ACCELERATE THE ETT
PROCESS, TRANSITIONING THE SYSTEM INTO A GALE FORCE LOW WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z
IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN

Other Reports

2 adults & 3 children rescued from flood waters 10km S of Cooktown

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/04/12/water-rescue-underway-after-ita-newman

MARITIME

WOAU01 AMMC 141222
40:2:1:04:55S075E35060:11:00
IDY21000
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology National Meteorological and Oceanographic
Centre
AT 1222UTC 14 APRIL 2014
GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AREA.

PLEASE BE AWARE

Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum
waves may be up to twice the height.

Situation
Vigorous westerly quarter flow.

Area Affected
Bounded by 44S080E 41S110E 41S116E 43S116E 46S112E 50S111E 50S080E 44S080E.

Forecast
W quarter winds 30/40 knots initially west of 090E, extending to west of 096E by
141800UTC, west of 103E by 150001UTC, west of 110E by 150600UTC and throughout
area by 151200UTC. Wind speeds increasing to 35/45 knots south of 47S after
141800UTC. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell.

WEATHER MELBOURNE

WOAU06 AMMC 141232
40:2:1:04:55S075E35095:11:00
IDY21050
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology National Meteorological and Oceanographic
Centre
AT 1232UTC 14 APRIL 2014
STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum
waves may be up to twice the height.

Situation
Area A: Vigorous flow associated with a low 986hPa near 46S103E at 141200UTC.
Low forecast 976hPa near 46S107E at 141800UTC, 976hPa near 46S113E at 150001UTC,
976hPa near 47S118E at 150600UTC and 975hPa near 49S123E at 151200UTC.

Area B: Vigorous northerly flow developing associated with a cold front forecast
near 42S126E 45S129E 50S127E at 150900UTC and 42S129E 45S131E 50S129E at
151200UTC.

Area Affected
Area A: Bounded by 50S100E 44S094E 40S095E 37S103E 40S118E 46S128E 50S128E
50S100E.

Area B: Bounded by 50S127E 45S129E 45S133E 50S133E 50S127E.

Forecast
Area A: Clockwise winds 30/40 knots within 480nm of low in sector from south
through northwest to east, decreasing to within 360nm of low by 151200UTC. Winds
increasing to 40/50 knots within 240nm of low in northern semicircle. Winds
further increasing to 45/55 knots within 180nm in northern quadrant of low
between 142100UTC and 150300UTC.

Area B: N quarter winds 30/40 knots within 180nm east of cold front developing
by 150900UTC. Winds decreasing below 34 knots west of cold front.

Rough to very rough seas rising to high in storm force wind area. Moderate to
heavy swell.

WEATHER MELBOURNE

METAREA X

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (QLD): Tropical Cyclone Hadi: 101200Z near 18.7S 151.8E, moving ENE at 5 knots (away from QLD) (TCWC Brisbane) – Updated 100314 1422z

Tropical Cyclone Hadi

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

Map of Australian region showing the location of any current active tropical cyclones

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

 

Tropical Cyclone Hadi

 

Issued at 11:20 pm EST Monday 10 March 2014. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

 

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Hadi remains a CATEGORY 1, and the intensification trend that the system displayed earlier today has halted in the past few hours. The cyclone is currently moving in an east-northeasterly direction at about 10 kilometres per hour and is expected to remain on a similar track overnight, with a slight acceleration towards the northeast during the day on Tuesday. This will take the cyclone further away from the Queensland coast.

Name:  Tropical Cyclone Hadi

 

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm March 10 1 18.7S 151.8E 75
+6hr 4 am March 11 1 18.3S 152.1E 95
+12hr 10 am March 11 1 18.0S 152.3E 120
+18hr 4 pm March 11 1 17.6S 152.8E 140
+24hr 10 pm March 11 1 16.9S 153.3E 165
+36hr 10 am March 12 1 15.6S 154.5E 200
+48hr 10 pm March 12 1 14.5S 157.4E 235
+60hr 10 am March 13 1 13.5S 160.0E 275
+72hr 10 pm March 13 1 12.4S 163.0E 310

 

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

 

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 5:00 am EST Tuesday

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 10:57 pm EST on Monday 10 March 2014
At 10 pm EST Monday, Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Category 1) with central pressure
998 hPa was located
over the Coral Sea near latitude 18.7 south longitude 151.8 east, which is
about 350 km east northeast of Hamilton Island.

Tropical Cyclone Hadi remains a CATEGORY 1, and the intensification trend that
the system displayed earlier today has halted in the past few hours. The
cyclone is currently moving in an east-northeasterly direction at about 10
kilometres per hour and is expected to remain on a similar track overnight,
with a slight acceleration towards the northeast during the day on Tuesday.
This will take the cyclone further away from the Queensland coast.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5 am EST Tuesday.

Preparation & safety

Guides and checklists for cyclone safety and preparedness.
Check your local emergency agencies for more information.

QLD: EMQ

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1914.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/19P_100532sams.jpg

WTPS33 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151ZMAR2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNING NR 001   
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
100600Z — NEAR 18.9S 151.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 151.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 18.6S 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 17.8S 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 17.2S 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 15.8S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 14 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 13.4S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 12.7S 165.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 11 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 13.1S 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 151.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 100510Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION AS THE LLCC
MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
UPON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF AMBIGUITY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED UPON THE INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION AS
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS OFFSETTING STRONG TO MODERATE (20 TO 30 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC HADI IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG A WEAK PERIPHERY
OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
NER IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ACCELERATE
THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY RELAX, ALTHOUGH REMAIN AT
MODERATE LEVELS, AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLOW INTENSIFICATION REACHING 55 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS LARGELY SPREAD
WITH A 500NM SPREAD BY TAU 48. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 100200Z MAR
14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 100200). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

MARITIME

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 1301UTC 10 MARCH 2014

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Hadi was centred within 40 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal seven south (18.7S)
longitude one hundred and fifty one decimal eight east (151.8E)
Recent movement : east northeast at 5 knots
Maximum winds   : 40 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 45 knots by 0000 UTC 11
March.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 11 March: Within 65 nautical miles of 18.0 south 152.3 east
Central pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots.
At 1200 UTC 11 March: Within 90 nautical miles of 16.9 south 153.3 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 10 March 2014.

WEATHER BRISBANE

PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/coralsea/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia: Tropical Cyclone 11P DYLAN 301500Z nr 19.1S 147.9E, moving S at 6 knots – expected to cross coast between Ayr & Bowen on Friday morning around sunrise – 300114 1515z

Tropical Cyclone Dylan

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including
Collinsville.

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

256 km Townsville (Hervey Range) Radar Loop

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

 

Tropical Cyclone Dylan

 

Issued at 11:05 pm EST Thursday 30 January 2014. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 18.

 

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

 

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Dylan is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Bowen on Friday morning around sunrise.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are possible between Cardwell and St Lawrence Friday morning extending to adjacent inland areas later Friday morning.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 kilometres per hour are possible in coastal areas near the centre.

Winds are expected to ease by the afternoon.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected about coastal and adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts.

Coastal residents between Ayr and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Ayr, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for remaining coastal and island communities from Cooktown to Cardwell and from St Lawrence to Gladstone, extending inland to the northern Central Highlands and eastern parts of the Central West districts on Friday.

People between Cardwell and St Lawrence should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
– Boats and outside property should be secured.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Name:Tropical Cyclone Dylan

 

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm January 30 2 18.9S 148.2E 45
+6hr 4 am January 31 2 19.6S 147.8E 55
+12hr 10 am January 31 1 20.4S 147.1E 75
+18hr 4 pm January 31 tropical low 21.0S 146.2E 95
+24hr 10 pm January 31 tropical low 21.7S 145.3E 110
+36hr 10 am February 1 tropical low 22.6S 143.2E 150
+48hr 10 pm February 1 tropical low 23.1S 141.1E 195
+60hr 10 am February 2 tropical low 23.7S 138.4E 240
+72hr 10 pm February 2 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

 

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

 

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 2:00 am EST Friday

IDQ20023
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cardwell and St Lawrence and
adjacent inland areas are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning
Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued at 11:08 pm EST on Thursday 30 January 2014

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including
Collinsville.

At 10:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Dylan, Category 2 was estimated to be 125
kilometres north of Bowen and 155 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and
moving south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Dylan is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Bowen on
Friday morning around sunrise.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are possible between Cardwell
and St Lawrence Friday morning extending to adjacent inland areas later Friday
morning.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 kilometres per hour are possible in coastal areas
near the centre.

Winds are expected to ease by the afternoon.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected about coastal and
adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast
and Whitsundays districts.

Coastal residents between Ayr and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. The sea
is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with
damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.
People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take
measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to
follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the
authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Ayr, particularly on the high
tide on Friday morning. People living in areas likely to be affected by this
flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and
be prepared to help their neighbours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for remaining coastal and island
communities from Cooktown to Cardwell and from St Lawrence to Gladstone,
extending inland to the northern Central Highlands and eastern parts of the
Central West districts on Friday.

People between Cardwell and St Lawrence should complete preparations quickly
and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
– Boats and outside property should be secured.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Cyclone Dylan at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near…… 18.9 degrees South 148.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy…….. within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement………. towards the south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre… 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category…….. 2
.Central pressure……… 975 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am EST Friday 31 January.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1114.gif

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301200Z — NEAR 18.8S 148.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 148.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z — 20.0S 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 21.0S 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 147.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ENHANCED DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 301036Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED SYSTEM AND ADDITIONALLY SHOWS
FRAGMENTED BANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK THAT HAS ALREADY
STARTED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION ALONG WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM
TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
55 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM FLINDERS REEF, AUSTRALIA, WHICH
SHOWED PERSISTENT 58 KNOT WINDS AS THE SYSTEM PASSED JUST TO THE
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
WESTERLY OUTFLOW. TC DYLAN IS EXPECTED TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS AND SUBSEQUENTLY DISSIPATE
OVERLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW BECOMES
DISRUPTED BY THE LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT; THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z.//
NNNN

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Jan, 2014 12:00 GMT

 

Tropical Storm DYLAN (11P) currently located near 18.8 S 148.2 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for TS is 75% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E)
probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 1312UTC 30 JANUARY 2014

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Dylan was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal nine south (18.9S)
longitude one hundred and forty eight decimal two east (148.2E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 55 knots
Central pressure: 975 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of centre extending to within 220 nautical miles in
southeastern quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 55 knots near the centre.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas.

Winds above 34 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre extending to within
220 nautical miles in SE quadrant. Very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 31 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 20.4 south 147.1 east over
land
Central pressure 983 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre
At 1200 UTC 31 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 21.7 south 145.3 east over
land
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 30 January 2014.

WEATHER BRISBANE

 

Australia: Tropical Cyclone #ZANE LOW/SS-TS Cyclone WARNING for coastal areas from Mapoon to Cape York to Coen has been CANCELLED – 020513 0750z

(Image: wunderground.com) Western Pacific Previous 24 hrs IR4 Sat (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Zane

Issued at 4:14 am EST Thursday 2 May 2013. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 20.

 

 

Community Threat Past Cyclone Details
Warning Zone – Gales within 24 hours
Watch Zone – Gales from 24 to 48 hours
Past Location and Intensity Number
Past Track and Movement
Current Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24 and 48 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Strong Gale Force Winds
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

The Cyclone WARNING for coastal areas from Mapoon to Cape York to Coen has been CANCELLED.

At 3:00am EST Thursday, Ex – Tropical Cyclone Zane was estimated to be 160 kilometres east of Lockhart River and moving west northwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

Gusty thunderstorms are expected over the Peninsula district today and may generate some locally heavy rainfall. This activity is not expected to be widespread and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings will be issued as necessary.

Name:Ex-Tropical Cyclone Zane

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 3 am May 2 tropical low 12.9S 144.8E 75
+6hr 9 am May 2 tropical low 12.3S 143.3E 80
+12hr 3 pm May 2 tropical low 11.8S 141.7E 100
+18hr 9 pm May 2 tropical low 11.3S 140.0E 125
+24hr 3 am May 3 tropical low 10.8S 138.0E 145
+36hr 3 pm May 3 tropical low 9.8S 133.7E 185
+48hr 3 am May 4 tropical low 8.9S 129.3E 220

There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system.

 

IDQ10810

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Brisbane

 

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30pm EST on Thursday the 2nd of May 2013 and valid until end of

Sunday

 

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

 

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop

over the next three days.

 

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Friday: Very low

Saturday: Very low

Sunday: Very low

 

This will be the final Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the 2012/13 season. The next

Tropical Cyclone Outlook will be issued on the 1st November 2013.

 

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a

tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% – 20%,

Moderate: 20% – 50% High: Over 50%

 

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea

west of 160E.

 

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

 

 

Preparing for Cyclones Brochure

MARITIME

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Queensland

 

PRIORITY

Coastal Waters Wind Warning

For coastal waters from Torres Strait to Cooktown

Issued at 4:05 pm EST on Thursday 2 May 2013

 

Synoptic Situation

A high pressure system [1029 hPa] over Victoria is expected to push a strengthening ridge up the east coast of Queensland during Friday.

 

Strong Wind Warning

Torres Strait to Cooktown

SE winds increasing to 25 to 30 knots during Friday afternoon. Seas rising to 3 metres outside the reef.

 

The next warning will be issued by 11 pm AEST.

 

Please be aware

Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

 

————————– End of warning —————————-

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC Zane track (Click image for source)

WTPS31 PGTW 012100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ZANE) WARNING NR 005//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ZANE) WARNING NR 005

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:

011800Z — NEAR 12.5S 144.5E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 144.5E

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

020600Z — 11.3S 142.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:

012100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 143.9E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ZANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH-

NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

REVEALS AN ELONGATING AND FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER

(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED 185 NM FROM THE LLCC. A 011731Z

SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE

SYSTEM HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY POOR AS THE CONVECTION HAS FURTHER

DISPLACED FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35

KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 30

TO 35 KNOTS AND OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS

REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS STRONG TO MODERATE (20-30

KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS PERSISTED OVER

THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A POOR

UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND

PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 23P WILL

DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THESE

POOR CONDITIONS AND WILL FURTHER UNRAVEL AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE

CAPE YORK PENINSULA. DUE TO THE OVERALL POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE

SYSTEM AND FORECAST UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THIS IS THE

FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR

HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 18

FEET.//

NNNN

 

Cyclone Zane Wednesday Evening Webcast

 

This webcast from our partners at OZCYCLONECHASERStakes a look at what has gone wrong with Zane and why he is dying as he approaches the coast.

Even though the storm has weakened cyclone warnings remain in effect in areas south of the center of circulation. Gale force winds are expected and heavy rainfall near coastal regions. The storm will quickly die out after making landfall. westernpacificweather.com

Outlook

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Tropical Cyclone Tim

Issued at 4:52 pm EST Saturday 16 March 2013. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

 

Community Threat Past Cyclone Details
Warning Zone – Gales within 24 hours
Watch Zone – Gales from 24 to 48 hours
Past Location and Intensity Number
Past Track and Movement
Current Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24 and 48 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Strong Gale Force Winds
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Tim is forecast to move slowly southwestward during the next 24 to 48 hours and weaken below tropical cyclone strength.

In the longer term, the remnant low is forecast to move west-northwest towards the tropical Queensland coast next week. This should bring a general increase in showers and rain areas about the Central Coast, Herbert and Burdekin and North Tropical Coast districts from Tuesday onwards.

Name:Tropical Cyclone Tim

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 4 pm March 16 1 17.1S 153.9E 35
+6hr 10 pm March 16 1 17.3S 153.6E 60
+12hr 4 am March 17 1 17.5S 153.4E 80
+18hr 10 am March 17 1 17.8S 153.2E 105
+24hr 4 pm March 17 tropical low 17.8S 152.9E 130
+36hr 4 am March 18 tropical low 17.9S 152.5E 165
+48hr 4 pm March 18 tropical low 17.9S 151.8E 200

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Saturday

IDQ20066
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:50 pm EST on Saturday 16 March 2013
At 4 pm EST Saturday, Tropical Cyclone Tim (Category 1) with central pressure
995 hPa was located over the northwest Coral Sea near latitude 17.1 south
longitude 153.9 east, which is about 870 km east of Cairns and 425 km east
southeast of Willis Is.

Tropical Cyclone Tim is moving south southwest at about 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Tim is forecast to move slowly southwestward during the next
24 to 48 hours and weaken below tropical cyclone strength.

In the longer term, the remnant low is forecast to move west-northwest towards
the tropical Queensland coast next week. This should bring a general increase
in showers and rain areas about the Central Coast, Herbert and Burdekin and
North Tropical Coast districts from Tuesday onwards.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 pm EST.

 

Maritime

IDQ20009
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 0655UTC 16 MARCH 2013

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Tim was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal one south (17.1S)
longitude one hundred and fifty three decimal nine east (153.9E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 4 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 995 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, reaching 130 nautical miles in the
southwest quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots near the centre easing to 30 knots by 0600 UTC 17
March.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre, reaching 130 nautical
miles from the centre in the southwest quadrant. Seas rough to very rough and
moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 16 March: Within 45 nautical miles of 17.5 south 153.4 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 17 March: Within 70 nautical miles of 17.8 south 152.9 east
Central pressure 1000 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 16 March 2013.

WEATHER BRISBANE

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC Graphic (Click image for Source)

WTPS32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TIM) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TIM) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 17.3S 153.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 153.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 17.6S 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 17.8S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 18.0S 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 153.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A RECENT INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE PAST
THREE HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS WELL
ORGANIZED WITH STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY
FEEDING INTO THE CENTRAL CORE. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE IN DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY AND A SHRINKING OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS BASED ON A 2.5/2.5 DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND IS
SUPPORTED BY A 160140Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS NEAR
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NEW CALEDONIA INTO THE CORAL SEA
ARE CREATING A MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) ENVIRONMENT. TC 20P IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF A WEAKENING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND WILL SHIFT TO A
WESTERN TRACK AS A LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WESTWARD, THE STEADY VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL CAUSE THE
EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 36. BASED ON THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SHIFTS, AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A WIDE VARIATION IN TRACK SOLUTIONS, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Tim

(wunderground.com)

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type

-
18 GMT 03/13/13 13S 146.6E 40 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 03/14/13 14.9S 149.7E 60 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 03/14/13 15.3S 152.0E 65 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 03/15/13 16.1S 154.1E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 03/15/13 17.1S 154.3E 45 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 03/16/13 17.3S 153.9E 40 Tropical Storm

Australia: NW Coral Sea Tropical Low 131600EST nr 12.3S 144.4E likely to become Tropical Cyclone Thurs – 130313 1100z

This Tropical Low is now Tropical Cyclone TIM, go here:

Australia: Tropical Cyclone #Tim CAT2 (SS-TS) 141200Z nr 15.4S 151.0E moving ESE at 12 knots 1403131420z

Australia: Floods leave 4 dead (incl 3 year-old boy), Queensland/NSW chaos Sydney drenched, thousands displaced – 290113 1055z

Three people have died and hundreds of homes are under water after heavy rain brought flooding to parts of the Australian state of Queensland.

The town of Bundaberg, where rescuers have been trying to airlift some residents to safety, is expecting its worst floods on record.

In Brisbane, the state capital, almost 5,000 homes and properties are at risk.

The rain was brought by (ex-) Tropical Cyclone Oswald, which is now affecting the northern part of New South Wales.

Two years ago, flooding in Queensland left 35 people dead, with Bundaberg among the towns affected. Bundaberg Mayor Mal Foreman said the floods would be far worse than 2011.

Residents have been told to evacuate in some areas after the Burnett River burst its banks.

At least 1,200 properties have flooded and some 30 people are trapped on the roofs of their houses in the north of the city. In Brisbane, which was paralysed by flooding two years ago, water has been creeping into low-lying parts of the central business district.

Residents of the Lockyer Valley, which was the scene of deadly flash floods in 2011, have also been told to evacuate as creeks and rivers rise. In Ipswich, the Bremer River is expected to peak later in the day, prompting flood warnings.

Police said the body of an elderly man who went to check on a yacht north of Bundaberg had been recovered on Sunday.

Two men swept away by flooding in separate incidents in Queensland were also found dead on Monday.

Monday, 28 January, 2013 at 04:34 (04:34 AM) UTC RSOE

View the current weather warnings for Queensland

News Reports:

Australia floods leave hundreds stranded in Bundaberg

BBC NEWS 28 January 2013 Last updated at 08:24z

The BBCs Nick Bryant says the floodwaters are expected to break records

Helicopter rescue crews are trying to reach hundreds of people trapped by rising floodwaters in Bundaberg in the Australian state of Queensland.

Many people are trapped on roofs, but there are fears homes could be washed away by fast-moving waters after the Burnett River burst its banks.

Three people have already died in the Queensland flooding, after a cyclone brought heavy rain.

Australian PM Julia Gillard offered her condolences to the families of victims.

Ms Gillard was speaking in Gipsland, Victoria, where she was visiting people afflicted by the recent wildfires.

Continue reading the main story

Do not wait. Move now. Yr life depends on it

Ian Stewart on Twitter Queensland police commissioner

She said it had been a tough period for Queensland, and that the whole country was being challenged by nature.

But we are a strong and smart nation and well get through this, as we always do, by pulling together, she said.

Hundreds stranded

Bundaberg Mayor Mal Foreman said the floods would be far worse than those of late 2010 and early 2011, which left 35 people dead across Queensland, with Bundaberg among the towns affected.

In 2010, the Burnett River at Bundaberg reached 7.92 metres, but at 15:00 (05:00 GMT) on Monday, the river was at 9.2m and rising slowly, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said in a statement.

It is expected to peak late on Tuesday or early Wednesday. Major flooding has also been reported at Mundubbera and Gayndah, said the BoM.

Residents of North Bundaberg were ordered to evacuate immediately, with the states Police Commissioner Ian Stewart tweeting: Do not wait. Move now. Yr life depends on it.

A residents stands in front of her flooded home in Bundaberg on 27 January 2013 There are fears fast-moving waters could wash away homes in Bundaberg

Police Superintendent Rowan Bond said many people had only a few hours left in which to leave, before becoming stranded, saying there was an

imminent danger of people being killed and drowned.

But the waters are moving too quickly for boats to be used, and there are fears that homes could be swept off their foundations by the torrent.

At least 1,200 properties have flooded and State Premier Campbell Newman said up to 1,500 people could still be in need of rescue.

Weve never seen floodwaters like this before, he told reporters.

People probably feel, quite reasonably, that theyve seen this all before and they feel they can be safe in certain parts of North Bundaberg. Right now our view is they are not, and thats why we need to get them out.

Mr Newman said 14 helicopters were already at work plucking people from rooftops but that more were being brought in. He urged stranded people to group together and ensure less mobile people were not left behind.

I can assure people who may be in harms way at the moment that we are doing everything we can to come to get you to get you out of this situation, said Mr Newman.

By late afternoon, the main Bundaberg evacuation centre at Oakwood State School was itself evacuated, the Brisbane Times reports. Some 300 people were being moved to another centre near the airport.

Elsewhere in the state, some 350 homes have been flooded in Ipswich. More than 200,00 people are without power across the state.

Map

Residents of the Lockyer Valley, which was the scene of deadly flash floods in 2011, have also been told to evacuate as creeks and rivers rise.

The town of Gympie has been cut off and dozens of businesses are underwater, ABC News reports, while hundreds of homes are threatened in Ipswich, where the Bremer River is expected to peak later in the day.

Police said the body of an elderly man who went to check on a yacht north of Bundaberg had been recovered on Sunday. Two men swept away by flooding in separate incidents in Queensland were also found dead on Monday.

In Brisbane, which was paralysed by flooding two years ago, water has been creeping into low-lying parts of the central business district.

A woman and her three-year-old son were also taken to hospital in Brisbane after a tree fell on them.

The rain was brought by Tropical Cyclone Oswald, which is now affecting the northern part of New South Wales.

The BoM has warned of heavy rain, usually high tides and damaging winds, with gusts of up to 100 km/h (62 mph). Flash flood warnings have also been given.

A number of roads have been closed in the state and 6,000 homes are without power in the north.

29 Jan 2013 (GMT):

Queensland/NSW chaos – 4 killedincluding 3 year-old boy: Sydney saturated in widespread rainfall totals of between 80 and 150 millimetres overnight

Parts of Sydney have been drenched in their heaviest daily rainfall totals in more than a decade as a wild storm system washed over the city on Monday night after causing havoc in the north of the state and in Queensland.

About 1500 residents downstream of Grafton spent the night in emergency accommodation after being evacuated due to the storm, which has claimed four lives in Queensland, including that of a three-year-old boy who was hit by a falling tree in Brisbane’s north.

The residents were ordered to evacuate from their homes in Ulmarra, Cowper and Brushgrove districts shortly before 7pm on Monday due to flooding of the Clarence River.

Low-lying areas of North Lismore were also evacuated on Monday night. Floodwaters also have cut off all roads between NSW and Queensland and isolated about 2000 people in northern NSW.

The remnants of ex-tropical cyclone Oswald stalled over northern NSW on Monday night, but a separate low-pressure system formed over the Hunter and beat a path down the coast to Sydney.

Authorities are monitoring the Clarence River in Grafton, which originally was expected to peak at 7.9 metres at about 9am on Tuesday.

However that later was revised up to an expected peak of eight metres at midday.

About 3000 people living near the bridge in Grafton have received an evacuation warning. State Emergency Service workers on Monday night rescued a man from a pontoon Grafton, while an elderly couple also were rescued from a catamaran that had broken its mooring.

The Bellinger River received 280 millimetres since 9am on Monday, the heaviest rainfall in four years. Flood waters have cut Bellingen in half, and the main bridge there is completely under water.

The heaviest rainfall in the Illawarra was on the escarpment, which received 150 millimetres of rain, while Wollongong received 120 millimetres, the heaviest daily rainfall total in two years. Wind gusts of 100km/h were reported in Coffs Harbour overnight, but in Sydney the wind was not as fierce as predicted, peaking at 70km/h on Sydney Harbour.

A severe weather warning remains in place on Tuesday for the damaging winds, heavy rain and damaging surf for people in the Metropolitan, Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast, Hunter, Illawarra, South Coast and Central Tablelands forecast districts.

Weatherzone meteorologist Brett Dutschke said Sydney was saturated in widespread rainfall totals of between 80 and 150 millimetres overnight, causing localised flooding in some areas, including Camden. The wettest area of the city was Frenchs Forest, which received 155 millimetres of rain since 9am yesterday.

Richmond was saturated in 111 millimetres of rain, the biggest daily total in 16 years in the suburb, while Bankstown, Canterbury and Badgerys Creek recorded 100 millimetres, the heaviest in 12 years. Mr Dutschke said many of Sydney’s western suburbs received their heaviest daily rainfall totals in five years overnight.

State Emergency Service spokesman Michael Eburn said officers had responded to 2900 calls for assistance for help across NSW, mostly in the north of the state. However that number could rise rapidly as people wake on Tuesday and assessed the damage to their properties. “Our local units have been out in Sydney dealing with localised flooding in Camden and normal call outs, such as trees down and leaking roofs,” he said.

“It has certainly been more significant in the north of NSW. We’ve evacuated low-lying areas of North Lismore and a couple of evacuation warnings were issued for Grafton. We’ve done 19 flood rescues, and most of those are avoidable things – people entering floodwaters despite our advice.”

The low pressure system is expected to move out to sea on Tuesday, the Bureau of Meteorology said.

Tuesday, 29 January, 2013 at 03:45 (03:45 AM) UTC RSOE

 

Central and southern Queensland face a mammoth recovery task as record-breaking flood waters recede.

Thousands of people have been displaced as rivers and creeks, swollen by torrential rain from ex-tropical cyclone Oswald, rose up and inundated homes and businesses on Monday and Tuesday.

In the worst-hit city of Bundaberg, 2000 homes and 200 businesses were inundated when the river reached a record height on Tuesday afternoon.

More than 7500 displaced residents are seeking refuge in evacuation centres or with friends and family on higher ground.

Queensland Premier Campbell Newman toured Bundaberg on Tuesday and urged Queenslanders to aid disaster victims.

“They all need our support. We’ve got to reach out and help them now,” he said.

Mr Newman also paid tribute to the resilience of residents, who in some cases have weathered four floods in three years.

“It’s incredible to see the spirit of Queenslanders out on the streets of their cities and towns as they grapple with what is a big crisis.”

The news was better for residents of Brisbane and Ipswich in the southeast, where water levels peaked lower than expected.

Early indications are that water stayed below floorboard level in Brisbane, while about 35 homes in Ipswich had water in their living areas.

It was a world away from the disaster of January 2011.

Then, tens of thousands of homes in the southeast were inundated and Brisbane’s damage bill ran into the tens of millions.

In coming days the city’s key challenge will be to maintain water supplies after the flooding forced the shutdown of two processing plants.

Residents have been told to limit water use around the home until further notice.

As the flood waters recede, attention will turn to the huge damage bill and recovery task.

The premier says Bundaberg will be the focus and has arranged for 400-500 soldiers to help clean the city up.

Already 9,800 insurance claims have been lodged in Queensland worth a combined $116 million, according to the Insurance Council of Australia.

The damage to infrastructure is still being assessed but it’s been estimated the bill will still reach the hundreds of millions, without counting crop and livestock losses.

The Queensland premier is urging people to donate to the government’s Queensland Flood Appeal which is being coordinated with Red Cross.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Governor-General Quentin Bryce are expected to visit flood-affected regions in Queensland in coming days.” – Sydney Morning Herald

Related:

 

Australia: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald located over Cape York Peninsula – 220113 0735z

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald

Issued at 5:23 am EST Tuesday 22 January 2013. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 14.

Community Threat Past Cyclone Details
Warning Zone Gales within 24 hours
Watch Zone Gales from 24 to 48 hours
Past Location and Intensity Number
Past Track and Movement
Current Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24 and 48 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Gale Force Winds
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre

The forecast path shown above is the Bureaus best estimate of the cyclones future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSWALD, with gusts up to 100 km/h, has now crossed the coast between Pormpuraaw and Kowanyama. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald is expected to continue moving inland today before adopting more of a southerly track during Wednesday.

Damaging wind gusts are currently occurring across the Peninsula district north of about Pormpuraaw and are expected to develop about the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands district north of about Cooktown later tonight.

Heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding associated with Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald is likely about the Peninsula and northern parts of the Gulf Country district today.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald is expected to produce a storm tide in coastal areas between about Kowanyama and Cape Keerweer over the next few hours. Tides between Cape York and Cape Keerweer are also expected to be abnormally high, exceeding the highest tide of the year on the high tide today. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas that may possibly be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

This is the final Tropical Cyclone Advice, however a separate Severe Weather Warning is now current for damaging winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally tides for parts of the Peninsula and Gulf Country districts. Refer to this product for all further information on Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald.

Name:Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 4 am January 22 tropical low 15.0S 141.7E 45
+6hr 10 am January 22 tropical low 14.5S 142.0E 70
+12hr 4 pm January 22 tropical low 14.4S 142.9E 90
+18hr 10 pm January 22 tropical low 14.5S 143.6E 115
+24hr 4 am January 23 tropical low 15.1S 143.7E 135
+36hr 4 pm January 23 tropical low 16.0S 143.4E 175
+48hr 4 am January 24 tropical low 16.6S 143.0E 210

There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system unless it moves over water.

IDQ20023
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning CentreMedia: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.PRIORITYTROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued at 5:21 am EST on Tuesday 22 January 2013The Cyclone WARNING from Gilbert River Mouth to Cape York has been cancelled.

At 4:00 am EST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald was estimated to be
55 kilometres north of Kowanyama and
15 kilometres southeast of Pormpuraaw and
moving northeast at 10 kilometres per hour.

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSWALD, with gusts up to 100 km/h, has now crossed the
coast between Pormpuraaw and Kowanyama. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald is expected
to continue moving inland today before adopting more of a southerly track
during Wednesday.

Damaging wind gusts are currently occurring across the Peninsula district north
of about Pormpuraaw and are expected to develop about the North Tropical Coast
and Tablelands district north of about Cooktown later tonight.

Heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding associated with Ex-Tropical Cyclone
Oswald is likely about the Peninsula and northern parts of the Gulf Country
district today.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald is expected to produce a storm tide in coastal areas
between about Kowanyama and Cape Keerweer over the next few hours. Tides
between Cape York and Cape Keerweer are also expected to be abnormally high,
exceeding the highest tide of the year on the high tide today. Large waves may
produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas that may
possibly be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their
property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

This is the final Tropical Cyclone Advice, however a separate Severe Weather
Warning is now current for damaging winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally tides
for parts of the Peninsula and Gulf Country districts. Refer to this product
for all further information on Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near 15.0 degrees South 141.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy.. within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement. towards the northeast at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category.. below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure 991 hectoPascals

No further advices will be issued for this system unless it moves over water.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureaus
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Coastal Waters Wind Warning
For Eastern Gulf Waters.
Issued at 5:25 pm EST on Tuesday 22 January 2013

Synoptic Situation
Ex Tropical Cyclone Oswald is located over Cape York Peninsula. Strong to gale force monsoon flow exists over much of the Gulf and is expected to contract east overnight.

Gale Warning
for Northeast Gulf Waters
NW to SW winds 30 to 40 knots, contracting east of 140.5E late evening. NW to SW winds 25 to 30 knots west of 140.5E from late evening. Seas 3 to 4 metres, easing to 2.5 to 3 metres west of 140.5E from late evening. A 2.5 to 3 metre Wly swell. Squally monsoonal rain areas with gusts to 50 knots, easing to 40 knots west of 140.5E from late evening.

Gale Warning
for Southeast Gulf Waters
SE to SW 30 to 40 knots north of 16.0S and east of 139.0E, contracting east and easing below 33 knots by late evening. SE to SW 25 to 33 knots elsewhere. Seas to 3 metres, reaching 4 metres in northern waters this afternoon. Squally monsoonal rain areas with gusts to 40 knots, reaching 50 knots in northern waters this afternoon.

The next warning will be issued by 11 pm Tuesday AEST.

Please be aware
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

End of warning -

23 Jan 2013: Ozcyclonechasers loaded a video update this evening on Ex-Cyclone Oswald, here is a look at it. fb.me/1wqylPq8d

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